Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/30/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
530 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THINNING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...NOW MAINLY JUST OVER
TULARE AND KERN COUNTIES. PATCHES OF TULE FOG LINGERED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAILING NOW. WITH THE SKIES CLEARING AND
VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...A REPEAT OF THE
DENSE FOG LOOKS VERY LIKELY TONIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG BEGINNING AROUND 04Z WHICH IS ABOUT THE TIME AS
LAST NIGHT. WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SJV FROM 04Z-
20Z FRIDAY... /8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY/.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY AND
BENEATH THE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH MEASURED
AT A COUPLE AUTOMATED GAUGES. WEB CAMS OVER THE SIERRA ARE SHOWING
THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL WITH BRIEF RAIN SHAFTS VISIBLE. THE BASE OF
THE ELONGATED TROUGH IS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THIS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE SIERRA
AND BRING A CHANCE TO THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AS WELL
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH ON
SATURDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER CALIFORNIA DURING THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH PASSING OVER THE PACNW WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
ON MONDAY THEN IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SO AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN WARM
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AND TULE FOG IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE SJV. THE FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BREAK AND IF THICK
ENOUGH...COULD JUST LIFT INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS MAKES HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS LESS CERTAIN FOR THE SJV.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...BECOMING AREAS
IFR WITH LOCAL VLIFR IN FOG FROM 06Z-20Z THURSDAY. LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY JANUARY 30 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
KERN AND TULARE COUNTIES. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS:
NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 01-29 73:1960 43:2002 55:1911 24:1902
KFAT 01-30 74:1984 41:1923 56:1911 25:1946
KFAT 01-31 75:1984 39:1969 55:1963 26:1949
KBFL 01-29 74:1986 42:2002 54:1986 27:1903
KBFL 01-30 77:1911 44:1951 60:1911 23:1902
KBFL 01-31 82:1984 45:1969 57:1963 23:1902
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY /CAZ089>092/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DCH
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DCH
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
311 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
THINNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...NOW MAINLY JUST
OVER TULARE AND KERN COUNTIES. PATCHES OF TULE FOG LINGERED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAILING NOW. WITH THE SKIES CLEARING AND
VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...A REPEAT OF THE
DENSE FOG LOOKS VERY LIKELY TONIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG BEGINNING AROUND 04Z WHICH IS ABOUT THE TIME AS LAST NIGHT.
WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SJV FROM 04Z-20Z FRIDAY...
/8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY/.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY AND
BENEATH THE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH MEASURED
AT A COUPLE AUTOMATED GAUGES. WEB CAMS OVER THE SIERRA ARE SHOWING
THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL WITH BRIEF RAIN SHAFTS VISIBLE. THE BASE OF
THE ELONGATED TROUGH IS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THIS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE SIERRA
AND BRING A CHANCE TO THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AS WELL
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH ON
SATURDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER CALIFORNIA DURING THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH PASSING OVER THE PACNW WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
ON MONDAY THEN IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SO AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN WARM
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AND TULE FOG IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE SJV. THE FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BREAK AND IF THICK
ENOUGH...COULD JUST LIFT INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS MAKES HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS LESS CERTAIN FOR THE SJV.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...BECOMING AREAS
IFR WITH LOCAL VLIFR IN FOG FROM 06Z-20Z THURSDAY. LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY JANUARY 29 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 01-29 73:1960 43:2002 55:1911 24:1902
KFAT 01-30 74:1984 41:1923 56:1911 25:1946
KFAT 01-31 75:1984 39:1969 55:1963 26:1949
KBFL 01-29 74:1986 42:2002 54:1986 27:1903
KBFL 01-30 77:1911 44:1951 60:1911 23:1902
KBFL 01-31 82:1984 45:1969 57:1963 23:1902
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON PST FRIDAY
CAZ089>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DCH
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DCH
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1038 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER WY AND EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGES IS FORECAST BY SHORT-RANGE MODELS TO CLIP NW CO TODAY. THIS
AND TRAILING NW FLOW WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN CO
MTNS. A SPOTTER IN CORTEZ REPORTED SOME CUMULUS BUILDING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INDICATIVE OF SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT BUT THINK THE
AIRMASS TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THE SAN
JUANS. TRIMMED BACK POPS ACROSS THE GRAND MESA AND WEST ELKS TODAY
PER CURRENT WEBCAM OBS AND LATEST AVAILABLE HRRR GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015
THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED NORTHWARD THROUGH NV
YESTERDAY HAS BEEN PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES...AND HAS MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN ID AND INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST WY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRUSH OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. RADAR
ECHOES EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN CO VALLEYS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES LATER THIS MORNING
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE STILL
MOIST AIR MASS TO KEEP AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAVORED
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED MILD SO RAIN OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE YAMPA RIVER BASIN
FROM AROUND MILNER WEST. WE DO GET SOME WEAK COOLING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...
BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY`S.
MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBOUNDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST. BUT MORE ABOUT THAT IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.
THE CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015
MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
RESULTS IN EXPANDING CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD THURSDAY NIGHT. A
DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN COLORADO RIVER BASIN WILL
KEEP THE AIR MASS MOIST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
40 (VERNAL TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS) STAND A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF OBSERVING
SOME PCPN...BUT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF THIS HIGHWAY.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH QPF FALLS AND THE PCPN TYPE
(ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER SWRN COLORADO VALLEYS). WHILE SOME MODEL
SPREAD STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION ON THE DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION...THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR
TRENDS. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...TARGETING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME CYCLOGENETICAL
FORCING DOES EXIST...BUT THE BULLSEYE STAYS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS HINTS OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR DURANGO BY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT NO OTHER MODEL SHOWS THIS AND THEREFORE NOT CONFIDENT
IN THIS SOLUTION. GIVEN THESE ASSESSMENTS...PATTERN FAVORS PCPN
AND HIGH POP VALUES FOR THE SRN HALF IS WARRANTED LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH REGARD TO SNOW AMOUNTS...QPF
WITH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 8:1 TO 10:1 MAY ONLY RESULT IN 4
TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AREAS REACHING 12 INCHES. WILL ALLOW
THE NEXT SHIFT TO MAKE ANOTHER ASSESSMENT BUT ELECTED NOT TO
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR THE SRN MOUNTAINS.
FOR THE SRN VALLEYS BETWEEN 6000 TO 8000 FEET...PCPN TYPE MAY
DEPEND ON THE TIME OF DAY. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...NRN STREAM DIVES TOWARD COLORADO
AND SHUNTS MOISTURE SOUTHWARD. THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION BEGINS
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE FARTHER SOUTH. THE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE BRIEFLY ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL AND LOWERS THE SNOW
LEVEL...BUT DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS GONE...PACIFIC ENERGY CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN MAY BE IN STATE OF FLUX HERE AND
NOT CLEAR HOW THESE PACIFIC WAVES WILL IMPACT THE NRN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NW CO TODAY FOLLOWED BY NW FLOW FOR
SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS IN - SN FROM KCCU TO K3MW THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD
TO SCT -SHSN/-SHRA MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT KASE UNTIL
00Z...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCSH THERE AS WELL AS AT KEGE.
OTHERWISE...VFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THU MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
955 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
TONIGHT...AND THEN MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. FRIGID
TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST...KENX RADAR SHOWS SNOWFALL OVER THE REGION...BUT
SFC OBS ARE ONLY JUST STARTING TO SHOW TO SNOW FINALLY REACHING THE
GROUND OVER THE CWA. AS SEEN ON THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING...THERE IS A
GREAT DEAL OF DRY AIR IN PLACE BENEATH 850 HPA...AND SFC DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND SLOW TO RISE.
WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WARM
ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY...WHICH IS ALLOWING THE PRECIP TO BLOSSOM
ALOFT OVER THE AREA. THE SFC LOW IS NOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND
EASTERN ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND WILL
START TO TRANSITION TO A SECONDARY LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND THE NEW 00Z NAM BOTH SHOW A MINIMUM IN
PRECIP OVERNIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND
SARATOGA AREA...THANKS TO THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW UPSLOPING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
BECAUSE OF THIS...JUST ABOUT AN INCH OR SO WILL FALL IN THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH UP TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
BY DAYBREAK.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUED UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES UNTIL NOON FOR SCHOHARIE COUNTY...THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION...NRN TACONICS...SRN VT...AND THE NRN BERKSHIRES.
CONTINUING THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WHERE THE
LATEST 09Z SREF PLUME GIVES KALB MEAN AMOUNTS 0.20-0.25" OF
QPF...THE 12Z GEFS PLUME IS AROUND 0.30". THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
RANGES FROM 0.25-0.35". AGAIN...USING A 13-15:1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS YIELD AROUND 4". THE HIGHEST TALLIES MAY BE ALONG THE SE
FOOTHILLS OF THE SRN DACKS WHERE A HALF INCH OF QPF MAY YIELD SOME
5-7" AMOUNTS. THE PRIMARY SFC LOW WEAKENS OVER NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT...AND SHORT-WAVE ENERGY SHIFTS TO THE COAST...WHERE A SFC LOW
WILL LIKELY SPIN UP NEAR LONG ISLAND. THE SNOW MAY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY A BIT OVER THE NRN TACONICS...BERKS...AND SRN GREENS. IN
A GENERAL SENSE...THIS LOOKS LIKE A 2-6" SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT 2-4" OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON...SRN TACONICS...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT. IT SHOULD BE
STRESSED THAT LOCATIONS LIKE THE CAPITAL REGION...MAY BE ON THE
LOWER END OF THE RANGE...BUT THERE COULD BE A SOCIETAL IMPACT ON
THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS...AND SOME VERY
SLIPPERY SURFACES. THE LATEST WPC SNOW GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY PROBABILITY OF 4 INCHES OR GREATER OF SNOWFALL BASICALLY
FROM ALBANY/THE MOHAWK VALLEY/NRN BERKS NORTHWARD BTWN 00Z/FRI TO
00Z/SAT.
THE H850 CIRCULATION MOVES EAST OF BOSTON BY 00Z/SAT...COLDER AIR
WRAPS INTO THE REGION WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT DIPPING SOUTH. H850
TEMPS DROP TO -12C TO -17C FROM NW TO SE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
U20S TO L30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NW AT 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. THE STRONGER
COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT.
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE COASTAL WAVE QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST
AND THE ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS SOUTH. THE LOW-LEVEL SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC CYCLONE...AND THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY...ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND SE CANADA. WIND CHILLS WILL PLUMMET TO -10 TO -30
DEGREES BELOW ZERO WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND OR
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER
THE SRN DACKS REGION. ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE MET MOS
VALUES WERE MUCH COLDER THAN THE MAV MOS HERE. THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY ABATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING
IN...BUT IT WILL BE FRIGID WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER CLIPPER AND ARCTIC FRONT DIVES SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS MORE MOISTURE STARVED. THE THREAT FOR SCT SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND EAST AND
ZERO TO 10 BELOW TO THE NORTH. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR
LESS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE CLIPPER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD MARKED BY VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...SOME 5 TO
25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT BEGINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS COAST WILL CONTINUE A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW...AND PROVIDE US
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PRIMARILY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST IN RECENT MEMORY...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SOUTH AND
VALLEYS...TO AROUND 20 BELOW IN THE ADIRONDACKS. WE COULD BE
FLIRTING WITH RECORDS AT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOME SUNSHINE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES...BUT THEY WILL STILL BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.
A REINFORCING COLD SURGE ON THURSDAY WILL ENSURE THAT THE DEEP
FREEZE CONTINUES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE
LOW SIDE AS LONG AS THE MONDAY STORM STAYS WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL SITES...BUT THIS ISN/T
EXPECT TO LAST MUCH LONGER. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING. KENX
RADAR ALREADY SHOWS RETURNS CLOSE TO THE REGION...AND AS LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN UP...SNOW WILL BEGIN BY 03Z-04Z
AT THE LATEST. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
IFR CONDITIONS...AND PERHAPS LIFR AT TIMES. WHILE STEADY SNOW WILL
END BY AROUND DAYBREAK...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
RETURN FOR THE VALLEY SITES BY AFTN...ALTHOUGH KPSF MAY SEE
LINGERING MVFR CIGS INTO THE AFTN HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KTS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL
START TO SWITCH TO THE W-SW AROUND DAYBREAK AND BECOME NW BEHIND
THE STORM/S COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE PASSING BETWEEN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT FOR THE AFTN...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
HYDRO SERVICE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 6 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING WITH
GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.
THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ047>054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
715 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015
.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFYING INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. MAIN SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LEADING THIS AMPLIFICATION IS CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO THE TN
VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WILL CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL MAINLY PASS BY TO OUR NORTH DURING THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS WITH NEGLIGIBLE HEIGHT CHANGES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DIGGING ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON ITS
WAY EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED TRAILING
BACK TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/ TN VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY
REACHING DOWN TOWARD THE MS DELTA REGION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND THEN
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING TOWARD LEVY COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...THE TAMPA AREA FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND POINTS SOUTH
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC HEIGHT FALLS/QG FORCING
PASSING TO OUR NORTH...AND NOT MUCH COLUMN MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAINFALL TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. PROB LOOKING AT JUST A BAND OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS AND
AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO MARK THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A QUIET...COOL...AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS
TO BE EXPECTED FOR ALL. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW-SCT HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND FRIDAY
MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY REACHING THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S
NORTH...AND LOWER 70S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF
PERIOD. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS TOWARD DAWN FOR
KLAL/KPGD...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
LEAVE OUT MENTION IN CURRENT TAFS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF FRIDAY. EXPECT A BAND OF VFR
LEVEL SCT-BKN CLOUDS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE.
WINDS WILL PICK UP SOMEWHAT BETWEEN 10-14 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL NOT SEE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST WATERS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND
APPROACHING CAUTIONARY LEVELS TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS POTENTIAL APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE HIGH POSITION TO THE NORTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW EACH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH WINDS
AND SEAS RELAXING DURING EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 53 69 46 70 / 0 10 0 0
FMY 52 73 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 50 71 46 70 / 0 10 0 0
SRQ 51 70 47 71 / 0 10 0 0
BKV 42 70 39 69 / 0 10 0 0
SPG 56 69 51 68 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
846 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...
234 PM CST
THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE NOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...DROVE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND HAS SINCE CONTINUED TO
PRODUCING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE NOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO RACE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AND AS IT DOES SO...IT COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW FLURRIES...SO I HAVE ADDED THE MENTION TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...AND AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BEGINS TO BACK NORTHERLY...IT APPEARS
THAT SOME BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE AROUND 5,000
FEET...AND DUE TO THE COLD LOWER LEVEL ATMOSPHERE...THIS SHOULD BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO RESIDE WELL INTO THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE.
THEREFORE...SOME EFFICIENT SNOWFALL LOOKS TO RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF PORTER COUNTY
INDIANA IN MY AREA...WHERE SOME ISOLATED AREAS COULD GET A COUPLE
INCHES. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A AN
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY.
A BRIEF WARMING TREND LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...SETTING UP A
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
328 PM CST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE INCREASING
POTENTIAL OF A DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVENT ACROSS AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF MY AREA SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS DURING
THIS PERIOD. OVERALL...THE MAIN DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS NOW
EJECTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE MAIN COMPLEXITIES WITH THIS SYSTEM...IS IF AND
HOW MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...EMANATING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH...GETS TAPPED INTO BY THIS DIGGING SYSTEM.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FLIPPED FLOPPED A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL GET
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT APPEARS ONE OF THE MAIN KEYS THAT
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOWFALL ENDS UP GETTING
ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL BE THE TIMING OF COLDER AIRMASS/COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AHEAD OF A STOUT 1044
MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD SET UP A GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY
RIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF MY CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RAMP UP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT IN THE COLD AIR ACROSS
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS
THIS SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS BY
SATURDAY EVENING...AND MAY END UP IMPACTING MOST OF MY AREA TO SOME
DEGREE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS COULD SET UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION AXIS TRIES TO DEVELOP WITH THE
925-850 MB LAYER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD AIRMASS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON WHERE
EXACTLY THIS ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING SETS UP IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...GIVEN THIS SYSTEM IS 60+ HOURS AWAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOST
AREAS MAY SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE
POTENTIAL OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.
THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH THIS EVENT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. AS THE COLDER AIRMASS BEGINS TO SPILL
SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE COLDER AIRMASS...FEATURING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE INVERSION HEIGHTS REACHING UP AROUND 5-6,000 FEET...WHICH
SHOULD EXTEND WELL INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THEREFORE...WE CANT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME...I HAVE REMAINED A BIT
CONSERVATIVE ON SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...MAINLY DUE
TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AND
ACTIVE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW
ADDITIONAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WITH SNOW CHANCES AND REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD AIR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL...IT APPEARS
THAT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF VERY COLD CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BE IN THE
WORKS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF A
SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA FROM THE HIGH LATITUDES OF
CANADA.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* NORTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT PRIOR TO 04-05Z WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT RETURNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THAT.
* INTERMITTENT FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS
BEGINNING 04-05Z.
* VFR CIGS 040-045 LOWERING TOWARD 035 EARLY TONIGHT. SCATTERING
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
NEXT UPPER WAVE AND A SURFACE COOL FRONT ARE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH AND PRODUCING A BAND OF FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
SE WI. HAVE ADDED A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF -SN TO THE TAFS LATE
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION BUT
VSBY COULD FALL TO 7 OR 8SM FOR A SHORT TIME. WINDS HAVE EASED UP
AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM BUT UPSTREAM TRENDS SUPPORT AN INCREASE
IN SPEED/GUSTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CLEARING WEDGE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS MOST OF MINNESOTA AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND IT APPEARS WESTERN AREAS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAY SEE
SCATTERING YET TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
SCATTERING OVERNIGHT. CIGS HAVE IMPROVED UPSTREAM AND ANY MVFR
WOULD BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS AT ALL.
FROM 00Z...
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VARIABLE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES. SEVERAL UPPER WAVES ARE IN THE PROCESS
OF CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING HELPING COLDER AIR TO START TO
FILTER IN. THIS AND THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WIND SPEEDS UP THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE SETTLING OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. CIGS HAVE STEADILY
IMPROVED AND ARE NOW LOWER END VFR AROUND 035 OR SOON WILL BE AT
THE TERMINALS. THE NEXT UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A
LOWERING BACK TO MVFR MID TO LATE EVENING...WITH UPSTREAM TRENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN SUPPORTING THIS. SOME FLURRIES
MAY ALSO OCCUR...PRIMARILY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NEXT WAVE MID
TO LATE EVENING. CIG TRENDS WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING WITH FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW QUICKLY
SCATTERING OF CLOUDS MAY OCCUR. A FAIRLY LARGE GAP IN CLOUD COVER
IS OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA BUT THIS LOOKS TO TRACK WEST OF
THE AREA. DO EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY MIDDAY FRIDAY BUT
MID CLOUD COVER WILL TAKE OVER. THE HIGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AND TURN WEST THEN
SOUTHWEST INTO THE EVENING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT RETURNING FOR
SEVERAL HOURS LATE THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF SCATTERING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR DURING THE NIGHT. WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR. AT LEAST MVFR CIGS LIKELY.
NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. WEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
153 PM CST
ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE SLOW AND STEADY
DEPARTURE OF TWO LOW PRESSURES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...THE TWO LOWS ARE NOW CONSOLIDATING OVER NORTHEAST LAKE
HURON. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THESE LOW PRESSURES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS TIGHTEN AND WAS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KT
FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WINDS HAVE BEEN HELD TO
AROUND LOW END GALES OR JUST UNDER GALE FORCE...HOWEVER AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSED MIXING HAS BEEN ABLE TO BRING TO THE SURFACE
MUCH STRONGER WINDS. AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT GALE
WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE STRONGEST GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...PRODUCING GALES TO 40KT AT TIMES...THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. FURTHER SOUTH THE GALES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 35KT AND THE FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD ONLY BE
ALONG THE MODERATE LEVEL AND NOT REQUIRE A HEADLINE.
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
WAVES BETWEEN 12-15 FT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY ARRIVES
AND BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS TO THE LAKE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST...WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTH FROM CANADA
SATURDAY...AND COULD DEVELOP A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE FOR A
PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 30KT...BUT COULD SEE A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SUNDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-
LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
648 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
Clouds continue to blanket central Illinois early this evening:
however, quite a bit of clearing is developing upstream across
Minnesota into far northern Iowa. This clearing is occurring within
the subsident region behind a short-wave trough noted on water
vapor imagery over Lake Superior/Wisconsin. As this wave tracks
into Michigan later tonight, the clearing will develop further
southeastward into portions of central Illinois after midnight.
HRRR continues to suggest a gradual dissipation of the cloud cover
overnight, while the NAM holds on to the clouds right through
Friday. Based on latest satellite loop, think the NAM is too
aggressive with its low-level moisture so will trend toward the
HRRR for the short-term forecast. Satellite timing tools continue
to indicate at least partial clearing arriving northwest of the
Illinois River by 06-07z, then further east and south across most
of the area by dawn. Some locations near the Indiana border and
along/south of I-70 may stay overcast until Friday morning. Have
updated sky grids to better reflect current and expected trends.
Have also updated hourly temps to slow the initial fall due to the
lingering cloud cover this evening. Once skies begin to clear,
temps will drop off steadily after midnight, with lows ranging
from the teens northwest of the Illinois River to the middle 20s
along/south of I-70 where clouds will persist longest.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
Forecast challenge for tonight will be whether or not any partial
clearing will occur and the affect on low temperatures. The latest
satellite loop early this afternoon indicated an area of partly
cloudy skies in central/southern MN into central IA behind a
departing shortwave trough. This area was starting to fill in with a
few more clouds, though, the past hour. The latest guidance from the
RAP, HRRR and NAM all indicate that moisture in the lowest 100 mb
should stay high enough overnight for low clouds to persist until
Friday morning. Breaks in the clouds may occur at times late this
evening, but they shouldn`t low enough to impact low temperatures.
As a result will go with lows in the 20-25 range across all of
central and southeast IL.
Patches of drizzle/flurries may linger in parts of central Illinois
early this evening. However, this will have very small areal
coverage and will have little or no impact, so will not include in
the forecast for tonight.
As the low pressure center moves through the eastern Great Lakes
late this evening, the pressure gradient should loosen up, resulting
in gradually diminishing winds in central Illinois early tonight,
and in eastern Illinois by daybreak.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
Models have come into better agreement with the main focus for this
forecast, this weekend winter weather system. The GFS and ECMWF both
look very similar with location of the heaviest snowfall Sat night
through Sun. Only differences in the those two models is the timing
and track of the low press area as it moves northeast across the
southern Miss valley. Precip will begin to spread into the western
parts of the CWA Sat afternoon, but temps will be warm enough for
most of the pcpn to be either rain, or a mix of rain or snow. No
accumulations are expected during the afternoon due to the warm
temps. The major part of the snow will arrive late Sat night, after
midnight, through some light accumulations are possible Sat evening.
After midnight, the snow is expected to become moderate with rates
approaching 1/2 inch per hour. The snow will be during the
overrunning period of the system as it begins to lift out of the
southern plains. With the upper level part of the system being just
an open trough/wave, a heavy deformation area of snow will likely
not setup on the back side of the low pressure area. However, snow
will continue Sun afternoon through Sun evening, with accumulations
being on the lighter side. Preliminary indications are that snowfall
totals from Sat evening through Sun night will be in the 4.5 to 6
inch range. There is still some uncertainty with these amounts as
the models are just now coming into agreement and some shift south
or north with the track is still possible. Given the longer duration
of the snowfall, it does not meet criteria for a watch at this time,
so no headlines will be issued. A later forecast shift may decide to
issue one if any changes occur with the model forecasts.
Beyond this system this weekend, conditions will be relatively dry,
except for Tue night when another chance of snow is possible from a
system coming down from the northwest. Once this system pushes
through, temps will drop and become well below normal for Wed
through Thur.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
Main aviation forecast challenges will be the current MVFR
ceilings and when to clear them out. As is typically the case
with these wintertime low stratus events, the models are all over
the place concerning how quickly it will clear. The GFS is very
aggressive with bringing clearing into the area as early as 06z,
while the NAM keeps low-level moisture in place through much of
Friday. Meanwhile, the latest HRRR is suggesting a gradual
dissipation of the cloud cover late tonight, with mostly clear
skies across the board by early to mid-morning. 23z/5pm satellite
imagery shows clouds blanketing much of the Midwest: however, a
large hole has developed across Minnesota and is steadily expanding
S/SE. This is in association with subsidence on the back side of a
short-wave trough evident in water vapor imagery over Lake
Superior/Wisconsin. As this feature continues to drop
southeastward, so will the subsidence and clearing. Based on
satellite timing tools, clouds should begin to scatter at KPIA by
06z, then further E/SE to KCMI by around 10z. Winds will initially
be strong/gusty from the NW this evening, but will decrease to
around 10kt late tonight. After that, high pressure will build
into the region on Friday, providing mostly clear skies and light
winds through 00z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
553 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...
234 PM CST
THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE NOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...DROVE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND HAS SINCE CONTINUED TO
PRODUCING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE NOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO RACE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AND AS IT DOES SO...IT COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW FLURRIES...SO I HAVE ADDED THE MENTION TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...AND AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BEGINS TO BACK NORTHERLY...IT APPEARS
THAT SOME BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE AROUND 5,000
FEET...AND DUE TO THE COLD LOWER LEVEL ATMOSPHERE...THIS SHOULD BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO RESIDE WELL INTO THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE.
THEREFORE...SOME EFFICIENT SNOWFALL LOOKS TO RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF PORTER COUNTY
INDIANA IN MY AREA...WHERE SOME ISOLATED AREAS COULD GET A COUPLE
INCHES. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A AN
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY.
A BRIEF WARMING TREND LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...SETTING UP A
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
328 PM CST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE INCREASING
POTENTIAL OF A DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVENT ACROSS AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF MY AREA SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS DURING
THIS PERIOD. OVERALL...THE MAIN DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS NOW
EJECTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE MAIN COMPLEXITIES WITH THIS SYSTEM...IS IF AND
HOW MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...EMANATING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH...GETS TAPPED INTO BY THIS DIGGING SYSTEM.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FLIPPED FLOPPED A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL GET
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT APPEARS ONE OF THE MAIN KEYS THAT
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOWFALL ENDS UP GETTING
ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL BE THE TIMING OF COLDER AIRMASS/COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AHEAD OF A STOUT 1044
MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD SET UP A GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY
RIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF MY CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RAMP UP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT IN THE COLD AIR ACROSS
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS
THIS SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS BY
SATURDAY EVENING...AND MAY END UP IMPACTING MOST OF MY AREA TO SOME
DEGREE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS COULD SET UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION AXIS TRIES TO DEVELOP WITH THE
925-850 MB LAYER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD AIRMASS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON WHERE
EXACTLY THIS ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING SETS UP IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...GIVEN THIS SYSTEM IS 60+ HOURS AWAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOST
AREAS MAY SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE
POTENTIAL OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.
THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH THIS EVENT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. AS THE COLDER AIRMASS BEGINS TO SPILL
SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE COLDER AIRMASS...FEATURING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE INVERSION HEIGHTS REACHING UP AROUND 5-6,000 FEET...WHICH
SHOULD EXTEND WELL INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THEREFORE...WE CANT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME...I HAVE REMAINED A BIT
CONSERVATIVE ON SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...MAINLY DUE
TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AND
ACTIVE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW
ADDITIONAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WITH SNOW CHANCES AND REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD AIR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL...IT APPEARS
THAT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF VERY COLD CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BE IN THE
WORKS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF A
SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA FROM THE HIGH LATITUDES OF
CANADA.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* NORTHWEST WINDS WITH VARIABLE SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING.
* VFR CIGS WITH A LOWERING TO HIGHER END MVFR LATER THIS EVENING.
SCATTERING OF SKIES LATE TONIGHT OR MORE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING.
* SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VARIABLE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES. SEVERAL UPPER WAVES ARE IN THE PROCESS
OF CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING HELPING COLDER AIR TO START TO
FILTER IN. THIS AND THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WIND SPEEDS UP THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE SETTLING OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. CIGS HAVE STEADILY
IMPROVED AND ARE NOW LOWER END VFR AROUND 035 OR SOON WILL BE AT
THE TERMINALS. THE NEXT UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A
LOWERING BACK TO MVFR MID TO LATE EVENING...WITH UPSTREAM TRENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN SUPPORTING THIS. SOME FLURRIES
MAY ALSO OCCUR...PRIMARILY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NEXT WAVE MID
TO LATE EVENING. CIG TRENDS WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING WITH FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW QUICKLY
SCATTERING OF CLOUDS MAY OCCUR. A FAIRLY LARGE GAP IN CLOUD COVER
IS OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA BUT THIS LOOKS TO TRACK WEST OF
THE AREA. DO EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY MIDDAY FRIDAY BUT
MID CLOUD COVER WILL TAKE OVER. THE HIGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AND TURN WEST THEN
SOUTHWEST INTO THE EVENING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS AND RATHER ERRATIC SUSTAINED
SPEEDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS RETURNING TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SCATTERING TONIGHT OR TOMORROW
MORNING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR DURING THE NIGHT. WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR. AT LEAST MVFR CIGS LIKELY.
NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. WEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
153 PM CST
ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE SLOW AND STEADY
DEPARTURE OF TWO LOW PRESSURES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...THE TWO LOWS ARE NOW CONSOLIDATING OVER NORTHEAST LAKE
HURON. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THESE LOW PRESSURES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS TIGHTEN AND WAS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KT
FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WINDS HAVE BEEN HELD TO
AROUND LOW END GALES OR JUST UNDER GALE FORCE...HOWEVER AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSED MIXING HAS BEEN ABLE TO BRING TO THE SURFACE
MUCH STRONGER WINDS. AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT GALE
WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE STRONGEST GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...PRODUCING GALES TO 40KT AT TIMES...THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. FURTHER SOUTH THE GALES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 35KT AND THE FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD ONLY BE
ALONG THE MODERATE LEVEL AND NOT REQUIRE A HEADLINE.
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
WAVES BETWEEN 12-15 FT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY ARRIVES
AND BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS TO THE LAKE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST...WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTH FROM CANADA
SATURDAY...AND COULD DEVELOP A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE FOR A
PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 30KT...BUT COULD SEE A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SUNDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-
LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
547 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
Forecast challenge for tonight will be whether or not any partial
clearing will occur and the affect on low temperatures. The latest
satellite loop early this afternoon indicated an area of partly
cloudy skies in central/southern MN into central IA behind a
departing shortwave trough. This area was starting to fill in with a
few more clouds, though, the past hour. The latest guidance from the
RAP, HRRR and NAM all indicate that moisture in the lowest 100 mb
should stay high enough overnight for low clouds to persist until
Friday morning. Breaks in the clouds may occur at times late this
evening, but they shouldn`t low enough to impact low temperatures.
As a result will go with lows in the 20-25 range across all of
central and southeast IL.
Patches of drizzle/flurries may linger in parts of central Illinois
early this evening. However, this will have very small areal
coverage and will have little or no impact, so will not include in
the forecast for tonight.
As the low pressure center moves through the eastern Great Lakes
late this evening, the pressure gradient should loosen up, resulting
in gradually diminishing winds in central Illinois early tonight,
and in eastern Illinois by daybreak.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
Models have come into better agreement with the main focus for this
forecast, this weekend winter weather system. The GFS and ECMWF both
look very similar with location of the heaviest snowfall Sat night
through Sun. Only differences in the those two models is the timing
and track of the low press area as it moves northeast across the
southern Miss valley. Precip will begin to spread into the western
parts of the CWA Sat afternoon, but temps will be warm enough for
most of the pcpn to be either rain, or a mix of rain or snow. No
accumulations are expected during the afternoon due to the warm
temps. The major part of the snow will arrive late Sat night, after
midnight, through some light accumulations are possible Sat evening.
After midnight, the snow is expected to become moderate with rates
approaching 1/2 inch per hour. The snow will be during the
overrunning period of the system as it begins to lift out of the
southern plains. With the upper level part of the system being just
an open trough/wave, a heavy deformation area of snow will likely
not setup on the back side of the low pressure area. However, snow
will continue Sun afternoon through Sun evening, with accumulations
being on the lighter side. Preliminary indications are that snowfall
totals from Sat evening through Sun night will be in the 4.5 to 6
inch range. There is still some uncertainty with these amounts as
the models are just now coming into agreement and some shift south
or north with the track is still possible. Given the longer duration
of the snowfall, it does not meet criteria for a watch at this time,
so no headlines will be issued. A later forecast shift may decide to
issue one if any changes occur with the model forecasts.
Beyond this system this weekend, conditions will be relatively dry,
except for Tue night when another chance of snow is possible from a
system coming down from the northwest. Once this system pushes
through, temps will drop and become well below normal for Wed
through Thur.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
Main aviation forecast challenges will be the current MVFR
ceilings and when to clear them out. As is typically the case
with these wintertime low stratus events, the models are all over
the place concerning how quickly it will clear. The GFS is very
aggressive with bringing clearing into the area as early as 06z,
while the NAM keeps low-level moisture in place through much of
Friday. Meanwhile, the latest HRRR is suggesting a gradual
dissipation of the cloud cover late tonight, with mostly clear
skies across the board by early to mid-morning. 23z/5pm satellite
imagery shows clouds blanketing much of the Midwest: however, a
large hole has developed across Minnesota and is steadily expanding
S/SE. This is in association with subsidence on the back side of a
short-wave trough evident in water vapor imagery over Lake
Superior/Wisconsin. As this feature continues to drop
southeastward, so will the subsidence and clearing. Based on
satellite timing tools, clouds should begin to scatter at KPIA by
06z, then further E/SE to KCMI by around 10z. Winds will initially
be strong/gusty from the NW this evening, but will decrease to
around 10kt late tonight. After that, high pressure will build
into the region on Friday, providing mostly clear skies and light
winds through 00z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...
345 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLOUD AND TEMP TRENDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TIMING...COVERAGE AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS
MOVES EAST.
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT
RISES ALOFT HAS LED TO A STRONG INVERSION AT AROUND 900 HPA HOWEVER
PER DVN 00Z SOUNDING...WHICH HAS TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM THE SOUTHEAST THANKS TO 950-900 HPA WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH...AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT THESE LOWER CLOUDS NORTH TOWARD
THE WI BORDER...THOUGH OVERALL NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS LIKELY TO
BE CLOUDIER THAN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY EVEN AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ALREADY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
OUR WEST THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF
THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
NEAR 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
PARCEL TRAJECTORIES WILL BE LARGELY FROM INDIANA/OHIO WHERE STRONG
COOLING HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH THIS MORNING. COMBINED
WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THIS MAY MAKE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
COMING LATER IN THE DAY WHEN LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AND
TAP MILDER AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY. STRONG SOUTH
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...ALLOWING TEMPS TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...EXPANDING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM LAYER TEMPS ALOFT IN
THE +5C RANGE OR BETTER...WITH SATURATION INITIALLY OCCURRING BELOW
700 HPA AND SUPPORTING LIGHT RAIN. WITH BREEZY SOUTH SURFACE WINDS
KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING...PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW PROBABILITY DOES
EXIST FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST
IL...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL IT IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY. THE SURFACE
LOW...AND A PAIR OF UN-PHASED SHORT WAVES....MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING AND RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH COLLAPSING THICKNESS
FIELDS SUPPORTING LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER FROM LIGHT
RAIN TO A BRIEF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST-EAST.
MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY NOON WEST OF ABOUT THE IL/IN STATE
LINE...AND SHORTLY AFTER ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA. HOWEVER...GUSTY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER AIR SPREADING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL JUST BE BLUSTERY AND
COLDER...WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 30 MPH AT TIMES
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER MORNING
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S OR EVEN NEAR 40 IN SOME SPOTS...THURSDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S BUT WITH MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS. LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH...WITH SUNSHINE
ELSEWHERE.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
345 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON A STORM SYSTEM WHICH
LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. ECMWF/GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING SURFACE
LOW TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...THOUGH GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS AT THE SURFACE. GEM ALSO SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. DEPENDING UPON HOW THIS SYSTEM
EVENTUALLY TRACKS...IT COULD BE A SNOW PRODUCER FOR ALL OR PART OF
THE CWA...AS IT TAPS GULF MOISTURE DEFORMATION BAND WOULD LIKELY
CROSS CENTRAL IL/IN. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO INDICATE A STRONG SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
WEATHER I.E. LOWS +/- SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
TEENS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING
INTO EVENING.
* SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF MIX WITH SNOW AND IFR BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY MORNING.
* SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 2000 FT OF AT LEAST 40-45 KT THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT THAT MAY CREATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
* NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
QUITE A FEW AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. THE FIRST
CENTERS AROUND WINDS. SE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS HOLDING IN THE MID
TEENS AND GUSTS INTO 22-24 KT RANGE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LOW MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER A PERIOD OF
LIGHTER WINDS...NW WINDS RAMP UP QUICKLY MID MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING THAT WILL
SUPPORT 30 KT OR SO GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT
LLWS HAS NOT BEEN INTRODUCED AS WINDS AT 2000 FT WILL REACH 40-45
KT WHICH IS ON THE THRESHOLD...BUT WITH THE CONTINUED GUSTINESS IT
IS MARGINAL AT THIS POINT. DURING PERIODS OF LESS FREQUENT GUSTS
THERE COULD BE SOME LLWS.
OTHER CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION AND TYPE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW SOME DECENT LIFT IN
THE WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME THIS EVENING. IN SPITE OF
THIS...GUIDANCE IS MIXED AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL
ACTUALLY BE TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS INITIAL TIME
FRAME. IF PRECIP WERE TO DEVELOP IN THE 4Z-8Z TIME FRAME...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT FZRA. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A VCSH GIVEN
THE LACK OF MOISTURE ON SOME GUIDANCE...BUT WILL BE A PERIOD TO
WATCH. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION COME WITH THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE A RAIN OR
DRIZZLE BEFORE TAPERING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX. SURFACE TEMPS HOLD AT
OR ABOVE 32 FOR MOST OF THE PRECIP THUS LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED THROUGH THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING THE WIND DIRECTION REMAINING SLIGHTLY EAST
OF SOUTH.
* MEDIUM IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT THE AIRFIELD LATER TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MEDIUM ON PRECIPITATION TYPE.
* MEDIUM THAT LLWS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENING.
* HIGH IN MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH
MEDIUM ON TIMING. MEDIUM IN ANY IFR OCCURRING.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
SUNDAY...SNOW AND IFR LIKELY. NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW WITH MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
211 PM CST
I HAVE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE LAKES
REGION FROM THE PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 30 KT TONIGHT...THEN A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALE FORCE
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS MUCH COLD AIR SPILLS IN OVER
THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW. I HAVE INCLUDED MY ILLINOIS
NEAR SHORES IN THIS GALE WARNING AS IT APPEARS THE OFF SHORE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LOW
END GALES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES ON SUNDAY...AND A PERIOD OF STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS (25 TO 30 KT) APPEAR LIKELY IN ITS WAKE AS A VERY
COLD AIRMASS MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE LAKE.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...NOON
THURSDAY TO 3 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
152 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...
345 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLOUD AND TEMP TRENDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TIMING...COVERAGE AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS
MOVES EAST.
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT
RISES ALOFT HAS LED TO A STRONG INVERSION AT AROUND 900 HPA HOWEVER
PER DVN 00Z SOUNDING...WHICH HAS TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM THE SOUTHEAST THANKS TO 950-900 HPA WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH...AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT THESE LOWER CLOUDS NORTH TOWARD
THE WI BORDER...THOUGH OVERALL NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS LIKELY TO
BE CLOUDIER THAN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY EVEN AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ALREADY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
OUR WEST THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF
THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
NEAR 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
PARCEL TRAJECTORIES WILL BE LARGELY FROM INDIANA/OHIO WHERE STRONG
COOLING HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH THIS MORNING. COMBINED
WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THIS MAY MAKE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
COMING LATER IN THE DAY WHEN LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AND
TAP MILDER AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY. STRONG SOUTH
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...ALLOWING TEMPS TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...EXPANDING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM LAYER TEMPS ALOFT IN
THE +5C RANGE OR BETTER...WITH SATURATION INITIALLY OCCURRING BELOW
700 HPA AND SUPPORTING LIGHT RAIN. WITH BREEZY SOUTH SURFACE WINDS
KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING...PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW PROBABILITY DOES
EXIST FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST
IL...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL IT IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY. THE SURFACE
LOW...AND A PAIR OF UN-PHASED SHORT WAVES....MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING AND RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH COLLAPSING THICKNESS
FIELDS SUPPORTING LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER FROM LIGHT
RAIN TO A BRIEF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST-EAST.
MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY NOON WEST OF ABOUT THE IL/IN STATE
LINE...AND SHORTLY AFTER ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA. HOWEVER...GUSTY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER AIR SPREADING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL JUST BE BLUSTERY AND
COLDER...WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 30 MPH AT TIMES
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER MORNING
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S OR EVEN NEAR 40 IN SOME SPOTS...THURSDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S BUT WITH MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS. LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH...WITH SUNSHINE
ELSEWHERE.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
345 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON A STORM SYSTEM WHICH
LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. ECMWF/GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING SURFACE
LOW TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...THOUGH GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS AT THE SURFACE. GEM ALSO SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. DEPENDING UPON HOW THIS SYSTEM
EVENTUALLY TRACKS...IT COULD BE A SNOW PRODUCER FOR ALL OR PART OF
THE CWA...AS IT TAPS GULF MOISTURE DEFORMATION BAND WOULD LIKELY
CROSS CENTRAL IL/IN. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO INDICATE A STRONG SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
WEATHER I.E. LOWS +/- SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
TEENS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING
INTO EVENING.
* SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF MIX WITH SNOW AND IFR BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY MORNING.
* SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 2000 FT OF AT LEAST 40-45 KT THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT THAT MAY CREATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
* NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
QUITE A FEW AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. THE FIRST
CENTERS AROUND WINDS. SE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS HOLDING IN THE MID
TEENS AND GUSTS INTO 22-24 KT RANGE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LOW MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER A PERIOD OF
LIGHTER WINDS...NW WINDS RAMP UP QUICKLY MID MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING THAT WILL
SUPPORT 30 KT OR SO GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT
LLWS HAS NOT BEEN INTRODUCED AS WINDS AT 2000 FT WILL REACH 40-45
KT WHICH IS ON THE THRESHOLD...BUT WITH THE CONTINUED GUSTINESS IT
IS MARGINAL AT THIS POINT. DURING PERIODS OF LESS FREQUENT GUSTS
THERE COULD BE SOME LLWS.
OTHER CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION AND TYPE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW SOME DECENT LIFT IN
THE WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME THIS EVENING. IN SPITE OF
THIS...GUIDANCE IS MIXED AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL
ACTUALLY BE TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS INITIAL TIME
FRAME. IF PRECIP WERE TO DEVELOP IN THE 4Z-8Z TIME FRAME...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT FZRA. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A VCSH GIVEN
THE LACK OF MOISTURE ON SOME GUIDANCE...BUT WILL BE A PERIOD TO
WATCH. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION COME WITH THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE A RAIN OR
DRIZZLE BEFORE TAPERING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX. SURFACE TEMPS HOLD AT
OR ABOVE 32 FOR MOST OF THE PRECIP THUS LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED THROUGH THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING THE WIND DIRECTION REMAINING SLIGHTLY EAST
OF SOUTH.
* MEDIUM IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT THE AIRFIELD LATER TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MEDIUM ON PRECIPITATION TYPE.
* MEDIUM THAT LLWS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENING.
* HIGH IN MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH
MEDIUM ON TIMING. MEDIUM IN ANY IFR OCCURRING.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
SUNDAY...SNOW AND IFR LIKELY. NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW WITH MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
158 AM CST
AN ACTIVE PERIOD WILL UNFOLD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS
FORECAST THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN.
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EXIT THE PICTURE AND A QUICKLY
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. DURING THE EVENING
THERE IS A PERIOD WHERE OCCASIONAL GALES SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF AS SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS ONLY 1000-1500 FT OFF THE WATER SURFACE. THE LOW SHOULD BE
ELONGATED RIGHT DOWN THE AXIS OF THE LAKE AROUND 6 AM THURSDAY
BEFORE IT QUICKLY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN STOUT NORTHWEST
WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE
DEFINITE GALES FOR AT LEAST THE OPEN WATER...INCLUDING 40 KTS
WITH 45 KTS EVEN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THIS LIKELY
WILL BRING SOME FREEZING SPRAY THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE OPEN
WATER. AT THIS TIME FORECAST INGREDIENTS ARE A LITTLE SHY FOR
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SO NO WATCH FOR THAT ISSUED BUT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A GALE WATCH FOR BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AS
THAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE HIGHEST WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL
JUST MENTION OCCASIONAL GALES ON THE FRONT SIDE DURING THIS
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL OBVIOUSLY EXIST A GOOD AMOUNT OF THIS TIME ON THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES. WITH A SHORT 4-6 HOUR RESPITE
CENTERED ON DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE LOW PASSES...HAVE OPTED TO NOT
EXTEND THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT ONE WILL DEFINITELY
BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND FOR THE INDIANA
SHORE INTO FRIDAY. THE GALE WATCH DOES INCLUDE PARTS OF THE
INDIANA NEARSHORE THAT WILL FEEL THE GREATER FETCH OF ONSHORE
WINDS AND THUS COULD REALIZE GALES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...NOON
THURSDAY TO 3 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1222 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...
345 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLOUD AND TEMP TRENDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TIMING...COVERAGE AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS
MOVES EAST.
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT
RISES ALOFT HAS LED TO A STRONG INVERSION AT AROUND 900 HPA HOWEVER
PER DVN 00Z SOUNDING...WHICH HAS TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM THE SOUTHEAST THANKS TO 950-900 HPA WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH...AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT THESE LOWER CLOUDS NORTH TOWARD
THE WI BORDER...THOUGH OVERALL NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS LIKELY TO
BE CLOUDIER THAN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY EVEN AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ALREADY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
OUR WEST THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF
THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
NEAR 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
PARCEL TRAJECTORIES WILL BE LARGELY FROM INDIANA/OHIO WHERE STRONG
COOLING HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH THIS MORNING. COMBINED
WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THIS MAY MAKE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
COMING LATER IN THE DAY WHEN LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AND
TAP MILDER AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY. STRONG SOUTH
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...ALLOWING TEMPS TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...EXPANDING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM LAYER TEMPS ALOFT IN
THE +5C RANGE OR BETTER...WITH SATURATION INITIALLY OCCURRING BELOW
700 HPA AND SUPPORTING LIGHT RAIN. WITH BREEZY SOUTH SURFACE WINDS
KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING...PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW PROBABILITY DOES
EXIST FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST
IL...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL IT IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY. THE SURFACE
LOW...AND A PAIR OF UN-PHASED SHORT WAVES....MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING AND RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH COLLAPSING THICKNESS
FIELDS SUPPORTING LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER FROM LIGHT
RAIN TO A BRIEF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST-EAST.
MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY NOON WEST OF ABOUT THE IL/IN STATE
LINE...AND SHORTLY AFTER ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA. HOWEVER...GUSTY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER AIR SPREADING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL JUST BE BLUSTERY AND
COLDER...WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 30 MPH AT TIMES
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER MORNING
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S OR EVEN NEAR 40 IN SOME SPOTS...THURSDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S BUT WITH MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS. LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH...WITH SUNSHINE
ELSEWHERE.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
345 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON A STORM SYSTEM WHICH
LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. ECMWF/GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING SURFACE
LOW TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...THOUGH GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS AT THE SURFACE. GEM ALSO SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. DEPENDING UPON HOW THIS SYSTEM
EVENTUALLY TRACKS...IT COULD BE A SNOW PRODUCER FOR ALL OR PART OF
THE CWA...AS IT TAPS GULF MOISTURE DEFORMATION BAND WOULD LIKELY
CROSS CENTRAL IL/IN. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO INDICATE A STRONG SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
WEATHER I.E. LOWS +/- SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
TEENS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING
INTO EVENING.
* SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF MIX WITH SNOW AND IFR BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY MORNING.
* SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 2000 FT OF AT LEAST 40-45 KT THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT THAT MAY CREATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
* NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
QUITE A FEW AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. THE FIRST
CENTERS AROUND WINDS. SE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS HOLDING IN THE MID
TEENS AND GUSTS INTO 22-24 KT RANGE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LOW MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER A PERIOD OF
LIGHTER WINDS...NW WINDS RAMP UP QUICKLY MID MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING THAT WILL
SUPPORT 30 KT OR SO GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT
LLWS HAS NOT BEEN INTRODUCED AS WINDS AT 2000 FT WILL REACH 40-45
KT WHICH IS ON THE THRESHOLD...BUT WITH THE CONTINUED GUSTINESS IT
IS MARGINAL AT THIS POINT. DURING PERIODS OF LESS FREQUENT GUSTS
THERE COULD BE SOME LLWS.
OTHER CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION AND TYPE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW SOME DECENT LIFT IN
THE WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME THIS EVENING. IN SPITE OF
THIS...GUIDANCE IS MIXED AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL
ACTUALLY BE TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS INITIAL TIME
FRAME. IF PRECIP WERE TO DEVELOP IN THE 4Z-8Z TIME FRAME...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT FZRA. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A VCSH GIVEN
THE LACK OF MOISTURE ON SOME GUIDANCE...BUT WILL BE A PERIOD TO
WATCH. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION COME WITH THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE A RAIN OR
DRIZZLE BEFORE TAPERING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX. SURFACE TEMPS HOLD AT
OR ABOVE 32 FOR MOST OF THE PRECIP THUS LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED THROUGH THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING THE WIND DIRECTION REMAINING SLIGHTLY EAST
OF SOUTH.
* MEDIUM IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT THE AIRFIELD LATER TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MEDIUM ON PRECIPITATION TYPE.
* MEDIUM THAT LLWS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENING.
* HIGH IN MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH
MEDIUM ON TIMING. MEDIUM IN ANY IFR OCCURRING.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
SUNDAY...SNOW AND IFR LIKELY. NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW WITH MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
158 AM CST
AN ACTIVE PERIOD WILL UNFOLD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS
FORECAST THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN.
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EXIT THE PICTURE AND A QUICKLY
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. DURING THE EVENING
THERE IS A PERIOD WHERE OCCASIONAL GALES SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF AS SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS ONLY 1000-1500 FT OFF THE WATER SURFACE. THE LOW SHOULD BE
ELONGATED RIGHT DOWN THE AXIS OF THE LAKE AROUND 6 AM THURSDAY
BEFORE IT QUICKLY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN STOUT NORTHWEST
WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE
DEFINITE GALES FOR AT LEAST THE OPEN WATER...INCLUDING 40 KTS
WITH 45 KTS EVEN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THIS LIKELY
WILL BRING SOME FREEZING SPRAY THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE OPEN
WATER. AT THIS TIME FORECAST INGREDIENTS ARE A LITTLE SHY FOR
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SO NO WATCH FOR THAT ISSUED BUT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A GALE WATCH FOR BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AS
THAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE HIGHEST WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL
JUST MENTION OCCASIONAL GALES ON THE FRONT SIDE DURING THIS
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL OBVIOUSLY EXIST A GOOD AMOUNT OF THIS TIME ON THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES. WITH A SHORT 4-6 HOUR RESPITE
CENTERED ON DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE LOW PASSES...HAVE OPTED TO NOT
EXTEND THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT ONE WILL DEFINITELY
BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND FOR THE INDIANA
SHORE INTO FRIDAY. THE GALE WATCH DOES INCLUDE PARTS OF THE
INDIANA NEARSHORE THAT WILL FEEL THE GREATER FETCH OF ONSHORE
WINDS AND THUS COULD REALIZE GALES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...NOON
THURSDAY TO 3 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1005 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...
345 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLOUD AND TEMP TRENDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TIMING...COVERAGE AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS
MOVES EAST.
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT
RISES ALOFT HAS LED TO A STRONG INVERSION AT AROUND 900 HPA HOWEVER
PER DVN 00Z SOUNDING...WHICH HAS TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM THE SOUTHEAST THANKS TO 950-900 HPA WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH...AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT THESE LOWER CLOUDS NORTH TOWARD
THE WI BORDER...THOUGH OVERALL NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS LIKELY TO
BE CLOUDIER THAN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY EVEN AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ALREADY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
OUR WEST THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF
THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
NEAR 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
PARCEL TRAJECTORIES WILL BE LARGELY FROM INDIANA/OHIO WHERE STRONG
COOLING HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH THIS MORNING. COMBINED
WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THIS MAY MAKE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
COMING LATER IN THE DAY WHEN LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AND
TAP MILDER AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY. STRONG SOUTH
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...ALLOWING TEMPS TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...EXPANDING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM LAYER TEMPS ALOFT IN
THE +5C RANGE OR BETTER...WITH SATURATION INITIALLY OCCURRING BELOW
700 HPA AND SUPPORTING LIGHT RAIN. WITH BREEZY SOUTH SURFACE WINDS
KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING...PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW PROBABILITY DOES
EXIST FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST
IL...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL IT IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY. THE SURFACE
LOW...AND A PAIR OF UN-PHASED SHORT WAVES....MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING AND RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH COLLAPSING THICKNESS
FIELDS SUPPORTING LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER FROM LIGHT
RAIN TO A BRIEF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST-EAST.
MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY NOON WEST OF ABOUT THE IL/IN STATE
LINE...AND SHORTLY AFTER ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA. HOWEVER...GUSTY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER AIR SPREADING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL JUST BE BLUSTERY AND
COLDER...WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 30 MPH AT TIMES
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER MORNING
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S OR EVEN NEAR 40 IN SOME SPOTS...THURSDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S BUT WITH MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS. LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH...WITH SUNSHINE
ELSEWHERE.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
345 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON A STORM SYSTEM WHICH
LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. ECMWF/GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING SURFACE
LOW TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...THOUGH GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS AT THE SURFACE. GEM ALSO SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. DEPENDING UPON HOW THIS SYSTEM
EVENTUALLY TRACKS...IT COULD BE A SNOW PRODUCER FOR ALL OR PART OF
THE CWA...AS IT TAPS GULF MOISTURE DEFORMATION BAND WOULD LIKELY
CROSS CENTRAL IL/IN. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO INDICATE A STRONG SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
WEATHER I.E. LOWS +/- SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
TEENS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHENING INTO EVENING.
* SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF MIX WITH SNOW AND IFR
VISIBILITY BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY MORNING.
* SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 2000 FT OF AT LEAST 50 KT THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT THAT MAY CREATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
* NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
CURRENT BATCH OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING STEERED ON SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH RFD LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST TEMPORARY 2000 FT
CIGS OR SO THROUGH MID-MORNING. WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW
PRESSURE...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING...AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING...INTO
THE EVENING AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ENVELOP THE REGION. GIVEN THE
CURRENT AND FORECAST PLACEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE...THE WIND
DIRECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF SOUTH MUCH OF TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY VEERING AHEAD OF A FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
A CHANNEL OF STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT...AROUND 2000-3000
FT...ARE LIKELY TO BE 50 PLUS KNOTS TONIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN
SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
ALSO INCREASED IN SOMEWHAT MIXED CONDITIONS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SATURATION SHOULD SLOWLY OCCUR NEAR THE INVERSION
LEVEL...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2000-3000 FT SO CIGS OF
THAT HEIGHT SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS TONIGHT PROGRESSES. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH ANY RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. ANY MIX IS NOT LIKELY TO LAST LONG BEFORE
ENDING...SO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ONLY A TRACE.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING THE WIND DIRECTION REMAINING SLIGHTLY EAST
OF SOUTH.
* MEDIUM IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT THE AIRFIELD LATER TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* HIGH IN MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MEDIUM IN ANY
IFR OCCURRING.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
SUNDAY...SNOW AND IFR LIKELY. NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW WITH MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
158 AM CST
AN ACTIVE PERIOD WILL UNFOLD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS
FORECAST THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN.
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EXIT THE PICTURE AND A QUICKLY
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. DURING THE EVENING
THERE IS A PERIOD WHERE OCCASIONAL GALES SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF AS SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS ONLY 1000-1500 FT OFF THE WATER SURFACE. THE LOW SHOULD BE
ELONGATED RIGHT DOWN THE AXIS OF THE LAKE AROUND 6 AM THURSDAY
BEFORE IT QUICKLY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN STOUT NORTHWEST
WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE
DEFINITE GALES FOR AT LEAST THE OPEN WATER...INCLUDING 40 KTS
WITH 45 KTS EVEN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THIS LIKELY
WILL BRING SOME FREEZING SPRAY THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE OPEN
WATER. AT THIS TIME FORECAST INGREDIENTS ARE A LITTLE SHY FOR
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SO NO WATCH FOR THAT ISSUED BUT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A GALE WATCH FOR BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AS
THAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE HIGHEST WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL
JUST MENTION OCCASIONAL GALES ON THE FRONT SIDE DURING THIS
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL OBVIOUSLY EXIST A GOOD AMOUNT OF THIS TIME ON THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES. WITH A SHORT 4-6 HOUR RESPITE
CENTERED ON DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE LOW PASSES...HAVE OPTED TO NOT
EXTEND THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT ONE WILL DEFINITELY
BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND FOR THE INDIANA
SHORE INTO FRIDAY. THE GALE WATCH DOES INCLUDE PARTS OF THE
INDIANA NEARSHORE THAT WILL FEEL THE GREATER FETCH OF ONSHORE
WINDS AND THUS COULD REALIZE GALES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...NOON
THURSDAY TO 3 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
559 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...
345 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLOUD AND TEMP TRENDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TIMING...COVERAGE AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS
MOVES EAST.
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT
RISES ALOFT HAS LED TO A STRONG INVERSION AT AROUND 900 HPA HOWEVER
PER DVN 00Z SOUNDING...WHICH HAS TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM THE SOUTHEAST THANKS TO 950-900 HPA WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH...AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT THESE LOWER CLOUDS NORTH TOWARD
THE WI BORDER...THOUGH OVERALL NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS LIKELY TO
BE CLOUDIER THAN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY EVEN AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ALREADY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
OUR WEST THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF
THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
NEAR 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
PARCEL TRAJECTORIES WILL BE LARGELY FROM INDIANA/OHIO WHERE STRONG
COOLING HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH THIS MORNING. COMBINED
WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THIS MAY MAKE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
COMING LATER IN THE DAY WHEN LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AND
TAP MILDER AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY. STRONG SOUTH
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...ALLOWING TEMPS TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...EXPANDING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM LAYER TEMPS ALOFT IN
THE +5C RANGE OR BETTER...WITH SATURATION INITIALLY OCCURRING BELOW
700 HPA AND SUPPORTING LIGHT RAIN. WITH BREEZY SOUTH SURFACE WINDS
KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING...PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW PROBABILITY DOES
EXIST FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST
IL...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL IT IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY. THE SURFACE
LOW...AND A PAIR OF UN-PHASED SHORT WAVES....MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING AND RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH COLLAPSING THICKNESS
FIELDS SUPPORTING LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER FROM LIGHT
RAIN TO A BRIEF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST-EAST.
MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY NOON WEST OF ABOUT THE IL/IN STATE
LINE...AND SHORTLY AFTER ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA. HOWEVER...GUSTY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER AIR SPREADING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL JUST BE BLUSTERY AND
COLDER...WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 30 MPH AT TIMES
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER MORNING
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S OR EVEN NEAR 40 IN SOME SPOTS...THURSDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S BUT WITH MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS. LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH...WITH SUNSHINE
ELSEWHERE.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
345 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON A STORM SYSTEM WHICH
LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. ECMWF/GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING SURFACE
LOW TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...THOUGH GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS AT THE SURFACE. GEM ALSO SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. DEPENDING UPON HOW THIS SYSTEM
EVENTUALLY TRACKS...IT COULD BE A SNOW PRODUCER FOR ALL OR PART OF
THE CWA...AS IT TAPS GULF MOISTURE DEFORMATION BAND WOULD LIKELY
CROSS CENTRAL IL/IN. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO INDICATE A STRONG SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
WEATHER I.E. LOWS +/- SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
TEENS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHENING INTO EVENING.
* SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF MIX WITH SNOW AND IFR
VISIBILITY BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY MORNING.
* SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 2000 FT OF AT LEAST 50 KT THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT THAT MAY CREATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
* NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
CURRENT BATCH OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING STEERED ON SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH RFD LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST TEMPORARY 2000 FT
CIGS OR SO THROUGH MID-MORNING. WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW
PRESSURE...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING...AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING...INTO
THE EVENING AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ENVELOP THE REGION. GIVEN THE
CURRENT AND FORECAST PLACEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE...THE WIND
DIRECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF SOUTH MUCH OF TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY VEERING AHEAD OF A FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
A CHANNEL OF STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT...AROUND 2000-3000
FT...ARE LIKELY TO BE 50 PLUS KNOTS TONIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN
SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
ALSO INCREASED IN SOMEWHAT MIXED CONDITIONS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SATURATION SHOULD SLOWLY OCCUR NEAR THE INVERSION
LEVEL...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2000-3000 FT SO CIGS OF
THAT HEIGHT SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS TONIGHT PROGRESSES. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH ANY RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. ANY MIX IS NOT LIKELY TO LAST LONG BEFORE
ENDING...SO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ONLY A TRACE.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING THE WIND DIRECTION REMAINING SLIGHTLY EAST
OF SOUTH.
* MEDIUM IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT THE AIRFIELD LATER TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* HIGH IN MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOW IN ANY
IFR OCCURRING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
SUNDAY...SNOW AND IFR LIKELY. NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW WITH MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
158 AM CST
AN ACTIVE PERIOD WILL UNFOLD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS
FORECAST THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN.
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EXIT THE PICTURE AND A QUICKLY
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. DURING THE EVENING
THERE IS A PERIOD WHERE OCCASIONAL GALES SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF AS SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS ONLY 1000-1500 FT OFF THE WATER SURFACE. THE LOW SHOULD BE
ELONGATED RIGHT DOWN THE AXIS OF THE LAKE AROUND 6 AM THURSDAY
BEFORE IT QUICKLY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN STOUT NORTHWEST
WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE
DEFINITE GALES FOR AT LEAST THE OPEN WATER...INCLUDING 40 KTS
WITH 45 KTS EVEN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THIS LIKELY
WILL BRING SOME FREEZING SPRAY THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE OPEN
WATER. AT THIS TIME FORECAST INGREDIENTS ARE A LITTLE SHY FOR
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SO NO WATCH FOR THAT ISSUED BUT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A GALE WATCH FOR BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AS
THAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE HIGHEST WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL
JUST MENTION OCCASIONAL GALES ON THE FRONT SIDE DURING THIS
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL OBVIOUSLY EXIST A GOOD AMOUNT OF THIS TIME ON THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES. WITH A SHORT 4-6 HOUR RESPITE
CENTERED ON DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE LOW PASSES...HAVE OPTED TO NOT
EXTEND THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT ONE WILL DEFINITELY
BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND FOR THE INDIANA
SHORE INTO FRIDAY. THE GALE WATCH DOES INCLUDE PARTS OF THE
INDIANA NEARSHORE THAT WILL FEEL THE GREATER FETCH OF ONSHORE
WINDS AND THUS COULD REALIZE GALES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...NOON WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...NOON
THURSDAY TO 3 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
346 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...
345 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLOUD AND TEMP TRENDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TIMING...COVERAGE AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS
MOVES EAST.
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT
RISES ALOFT HAS LED TO A STRONG INVERSION AT AROUND 900 HPA HOWEVER
PER DVN 00Z SOUNDING...WHICH HAS TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM THE SOUTHEAST THANKS TO 950-900 HPA WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH...AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT THESE LOWER CLOUDS NORTH TOWARD
THE WI BORDER...THOUGH OVERALL NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS LIKELY TO
BE CLOUDIER THAN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY EVEN AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ALREADY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
OUR WEST THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF
THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
NEAR 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
PARCEL TRAJECTORIES WILL BE LARGELY FROM INDIANA/OHIO WHERE STRONG
COOLING HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH THIS MORNING. COMBINED
WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THIS MAY MAKE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
COMING LATER IN THE DAY WHEN LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AND
TAP MILDER AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY. STRONG SOUTH
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...ALLOWING TEMPS TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...EXPANDING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM LAYER TEMPS ALOFT IN
THE +5C RANGE OR BETTER...WITH SATURATION INITIALLY OCCURRING BELOW
700 HPA AND SUPPORTING LIGHT RAIN. WITH BREEZY SOUTH SURFACE WINDS
KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING...PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW PROBABILITY DOES
EXIST FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST
IL...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL IT IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY. THE SURFACE
LOW...AND A PAIR OF UN-PHASED SHORT WAVES....MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING AND RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH COLLAPSING THICKNESS
FIELDS SUPPORTING LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER FROM LIGHT
RAIN TO A BRIEF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST-EAST.
MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY NOON WEST OF ABOUT THE IL/IN STATE
LINE...AND SHORTLY AFTER ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA. HOWEVER...GUSTY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER AIR SPREADING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL JUST BE BLUSTERY AND
COLDER...WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 30 MPH AT TIMES
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER MORNING
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S OR EVEN NEAR 40 IN SOME SPOTS...THURSDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S BUT WITH MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS. LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH...WITH SUNSHINE
ELSEWHERE.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
345 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON A STORM SYSTEM WHICH
LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. ECMWF/GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING SURFACE
LOW TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...THOUGH GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS AT THE SURFACE. GEM ALSO SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. DEPENDING UPON HOW THIS SYSTEM
EVENTUALLY TRACKS...IT COULD BE A SNOW PRODUCER FOR ALL OR PART OF
THE CWA...AS IT TAPS GULF MOISTURE DEFORMATION BAND WOULD LIKELY
CROSS CENTRAL IL/IN. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO INDICATE A STRONG SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
WEATHER I.E. LOWS +/- SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
TEENS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* LOW CHANCE FOR 1500-2500 FT CIGS BEFORE 14Z.
* GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING BY 18Z.
* CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING.
* SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 50 KT AROUND 2000 FT THIS
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT THAT MAY CREATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
START TO BRING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
BACK NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE CLOUDS ARE THIN...THEY ARE
UNDER A STRONG INVERSION OF 8C/1000 FT...SO NOT ENVISIONING MUCH
MORE EROSION OVERNIGHT. RFD SHOULD GO BACK TO BROKEN OR EVEN
OVERCAST AS THESE CLOUDS EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD AND IT IS POSSIBLE
ORD AND DPA DO AS WELL.
WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS SPREAD OVER.
GIVEN THE CURRENT AND FORECAST PLACEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE...THE
WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF SOUTH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY VEERING DURING LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
AHEAD...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THAT CHANGING TO A RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWER CHANCE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH THAT IF MVFR CIGS DO RETURN PRIOR TO 14Z THEY WOULD BE
TEMPORARY.
* HIGH IN WIND SPEED AND IN WIND DIRECTION BEING SLIGHTLY EAST OF
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. MEDIUM IN WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW. MVFR LIKELY/IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. VFR
EARLY THEN MVFR LIKELY/IFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. IFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MTF/KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
158 AM CST
AN ACTIVE PERIOD WILL UNFOLD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS
FORECAST THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN.
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EXIT THE PICTURE AND A QUICKLY
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. DURING THE EVENING
THERE IS A PERIOD WHERE OCCASIONAL GALES SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF AS SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS ONLY 1000-1500 FT OFF THE WATER SURFACE. THE LOW SHOULD BE
ELONGATED RIGHT DOWN THE AXIS OF THE LAKE AROUND 6 AM THURSDAY
BEFORE IT QUICKLY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN STOUT NORTHWEST
WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE
DEFINITE GALES FOR AT LEAST THE OPEN WATER...INCLUDING 40 KTS
WITH 45 KTS EVEN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THIS LIKELY
WILL BRING SOME FREEZING SPRAY THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE OPEN
WATER. AT THIS TIME FORECAST INGREDIENTS ARE A LITTLE SHY FOR
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SO NO WATCH FOR THAT ISSUED BUT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A GALE WATCH FOR BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AS
THAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE HIGHEST WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL
JUST MENTION OCCASIONAL GALES ON THE FRONT SIDE DURING THIS
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL OBVIOUSLY EXIST A GOOD AMOUNT OF THIS TIME ON THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES. WITH A SHORT 4-6 HOUR RESPITE
CENTERED ON DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE LOW PASSES...HAVE OPTED TO NOT
EXTEND THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT ONE WILL DEFINITELY
BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND FOR THE INDIANA
SHORE INTO FRIDAY. THE GALE WATCH DOES INCLUDE PARTS OF THE
INDIANA NEARSHORE THAT WILL FEEL THE GREATER FETCH OF ONSHORE
WINDS AND THUS COULD REALIZE GALES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...NOON WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...NOON
THURSDAY TO 3 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1149 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
905 PM CST
LOW CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD AND HAS CLEARED
ALL BUT THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME HIGHER CLOUD STREAKS APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD BUT COVERAGE LOOKS
LOOKS TO BE SPORADIC THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MAY BE AT A MINIMUM
DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO DROP OFF
WHERE THANKS TO THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEVERAL SITES IN
NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW IN THE TEENS. GIVEN THAT HIGHER CLOUD
COVER LOOKS INTERMITTENT AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD HAVE GONE AHEAD AND LOWERED MINS
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH WESTERN FRINGES MAY SEE LOWER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOWER
TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA AND SOME OF THE
TRADITIONALLY COLDER SPOTS FROM LEE/OGLE COUNTIES TO DEKALB AND
KANE COUNTIES COULD SEE VALUES A LITTLE BIT LOWER IF HIGH CLOUD
COVER REMAINS VERY MINIMAL.
WITH THE LOWER TEMPS AND SPORADIC HIGHER CLOUD COVER...FREEZING
FOG WILL BE A CONCERN. THE COLDEST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK
DROP OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH MAY LEAD TO MORE FROST
DEPOSITION RATHER THAN FOG FORMATION. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN
THIS HAPPENING AND REASONABLE SUPPORT FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT...WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA OR FROM THE FAR WESTERN CHICAGO METRO WEST
AND SOUTHWEST FOR NOW. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS
OVERNIGHT.
MDB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
304 PM CST
THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM REVOLVES AROUND THE STRATUS DECK
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. WOULD ANTICIPATE
A CONTINUED VERY SLOW CLEARING FROM THE EAST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS
BEFORE LOW LEVEL FLOW DIMINISHES THIS EVENING BEFORE BACKING TO
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY WELL SEND STRATUS SLOSHING BACK
NORTH INTO AREAS THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY CLEARED OUT. TRIED TO REFLECT A
TREND LIKE THIS IN THE HOURLY SKY GRIDS AND RESULTANT TEMPERATURE
GRIDS...BUT GIVEN THE POOR MODEL HANDLING OF THIS CLOUDINESS IT
PRETTY MUCH GUARANTEED THAT OUR CURRENT SKY GRIDS WILL BE WRONG
SOMEWHERE AND NEED UPDATING WITH ACCOMPANYING CHANGES NEEDED IN
TEMPS TONIGHT. WHERE SKIES BECOME/STAY CLEAR TONIGHT COULD SEE
FREEZING GROUND FOG DEVELOP GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS...BUT WILL LET
EVENING SHIFT WATCH TRENDS AND ADD FREEZING FOG AS NEEDED.
FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE OPTED TO BE OPTIMISTIC IN PUSHING STRATUS NORTH
AND BREAKING IT UP IN THE MORNING BUT THIS VERY WELL MAY END UP
BEING TOO OPTIMISTIC. ASSUMING THERE IS SOME SUNSHINE TOMORROW PRIOR
TO THE ARRIVAL OF EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THEN HIGHS
COULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 30S...PARTICULARLY IN THE LESS SNOW COVERED
AND MORE URBANIZED AREAS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
SHOULD RESULT IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
304 PM CST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRISK SOUTH WINDS...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE
OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPS
IN THE EVENING AND PROBABLY RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT
OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF WRAP AROUND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. STILL LOOKS LIKE PRETTY
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM AND HIGHEST QPF FOCUSED TO OUR
NORTH WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS IN OUR CWA AND ONLY MINIMAL THREAT OF ANY
ACCUMULATED FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND
TEMPS.
SHOT OF SEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL KNOCK TEMPS TO JUST A HAIR BELOW
AVERAGE FRIDAY. VIGOROUS ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN
AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEKEND.
STILL SOME LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS
THIS WEEKEND...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME AGREEMENT THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS ON THE GENERAL IDEA OF A LARGE SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ARCTIC AIR
IS FORECAST TO SURGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS ARCTIC
INTRUSION ARE DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT MEANING FAIRLY
LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CHANCE FOR 1500-2500 FT CIGS BEFORE 14Z.
* GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING BY 18Z.
* CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
* SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 50 KT AROUND 2000 FT WEDNESDAY
EVENING THAT MAY CREATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
START TO BRING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
BACK NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE CLOUDS ARE THIN...THEY ARE
UNDER A STRONG INVERSION OF 8C/1000 FT...SO NOT ENVISIONING MUCH
MORE EROSION OVERNIGHT. RFD SHOULD GO BACK TO BROKEN OR EVEN
OVERCAST AS THESE CLOUDS EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD AND IT IS POSSIBLE
ORD AND DPA DO AS WELL.
WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS SPREAD OVER.
GIVEN THE CURRENT AND FORECAST PLACEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE...THE
WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF SOUTH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY VEERING DURING LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
AHEAD...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THAT CHANGING TO A RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWER CHANCE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM THAT IF MVFR CIGS DO RETURN PRIOR TO 14Z THEY WOULD BE
TEMPORARY.
* HIGH IN WIND SPEED AND IN WIND DIRECTION BEING SLIGHTLY EAST OF
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM IN WIND DIRECTION
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW. MVFR LIKELY/IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. VFR
EARLY THEN MVFR LIKELY/IFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. IFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MTF/KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
318 PM CST
LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SPANS THE REGION...WILL FURTHER DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THIS HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH WILL THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP THE WINDS TO TURN BACK MORE
SOUTHERLY AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS INCREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS REALLY INCREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE WINDS HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT...AND SO HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
BRIEF AS WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY. ALSO...SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE COULD HOVER AROUND 30 KT A FOR A BRIEF WINDOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT WILL MAKE MENTION OF OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS
DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO BE IN PLACE ON
THURSDAY...REALLY INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
GALES ARE APPEARING LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE DURING THIS
TIME...EVEN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING
ONCE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...NOON WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1139 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
Made some quick updates to the forecast this evening, mainly to
better reflect current and expected sky trends. 00z/6pm IR
satellite imagery shows cloud cover steadily eroding from the
E/NE, with mostly clear skies currently noted along/northeast of a
Champaign to Paris line. Clouds are beginning to break up south of
there along/south of the I-70 corridor as well. Based on satellite
loops and the latest HRRR forecast, it appears skies will become
partly to mostly clear across much of the KILX CWA tonight, except
perhaps the far NW around Galesburg. Will continue to monitor
trends to see if additional updates are needed, but for now will
hold on to overcast conditions through the entire night northwest
of the Peoria area with clearing skies elsewhere. Low temperatures
will be coldest where clearing has already occurred across the NE
CWA around Danville, where readings will dip into the teens. Lower
to middle 20s seem reasonable across the rest of central Illinois.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Through Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT/NEAR TERM REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT...WINDS AND TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE
OVERHEAD...AND SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW LOWER CLOUDS ERODING FROM THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. BEST CHANCES FOR
EROSION WILL BE FOR EASTERN AREAS WHERE THIS DRIER AIR IS MAKING
BETTER HEADWAY. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE CLEARING
MUCH SOONER THIS EVENING AREA-WIDE...WHILE RAP TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT FOR THIS TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-72. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND THAT
IT WILL AT LEAST HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUD BEARING
WINDS WILL BE TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AS WELL...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
CLOUDS HANGING ON ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 51. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
IN THE PLAINS MOVE EAST AND CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY. EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE SE OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE EAST IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO NEAR 20...WITH 20S HOLDING WEST WHERE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
BE MORE PREVALENT.
THURSDAY...ATTENTION SHIFTS TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS RIDGE WHILE ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEM .IT APPEARS THAT NOT ALL OF
OF THIS LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL NOT TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION HOLDING...BUT DO EXPECT SOME WARMING FROM
TODAY`S READINGS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE
MID 40S LOOK LIKE A DECENT BET. AREAS NORTH AND EAST WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOLER SIDE STRUGGLING TO REACH 40. AHEAD OF THESE TWO
DISTURBANCES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OF 1005 MB COMBINES WITH THE
DEPARTING HIGH TO CREATE A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.
A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS IN
THE 25 KT RANGE.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WINDY AND MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS DUE TO TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN ADVANCING LOW AND
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE MID TO HIGH TEENS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP SOME IN THE EVENING BUT THEN ARE LIKELY
TO SLOWLY RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE IS A DECENT VORT MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH EXCEPTION OF ECMWF AND NAM. MAINTAINED SLIGHT TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY NEED
TO ADD DRIZZLE TO GRIDS.
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST...AND COLD ADVECTION RAMPING UP
BEHIND IT. HAVE LOW POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING...BUT
ANY PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT RAIN DESPITE COLD ADVECTION AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULDNT COOL QUICK ENOUGH FROM EARLY HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST FAR SOUTHEAST. BIGGER STORY
WILL BE STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES BEHIND FRONT RESULTING
IN NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTHEAST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S BY EARLY FRIDAY...RECOVERING TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO LOW-MID 30S UNDER LARGE CANADIAN HIGH. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM SLIGHTLY TO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ATTENTION TURNS TO EJECTION OF CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY MOVING TOWARD
THE LOWER OR MID MS VALLEY THEN OH VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH
IT BEING STILL OVER 100 HRS OUT...GUIDANCE VARIES ON PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE LOW...BUT DECENT AGREEMENT IN OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY LONG DURATION
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT...THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW ACROSS THE CWA...BUT FARTHER NORTHWEST/STRONGER LOW COULD
INTRODUCE P-TYPE CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WAY
TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THIS
PERIOD BEARS WATCHING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE BEEN
WAFFLING ON INTENSITY OF A POTENTIAL SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS PIECE OF POLAR VORTEX ROTATES SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. BRUNT
OF THE ARCTIC BLAST MAY BE DIRECTED FARTHER EAST...BUT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
Skies have cleared across much of central and southeast Illinois
late this evening, with MVFR ceilings persisting along/northwest
of a KBMI to KIJX line. IR satellite imagery continues to show
this area of clouds retreating to the northwest as light E/SE
return flow develops on the back side of departing high pressure.
Based on satellite loops and latest HRRR forecast, have removed
the ceiling at KBMI by 07z, then further northwest to KPIA by 09z.
Will need to keep an eye out for potential fog development, as
HRRR has been trying to develop areas of fog across the E/NE CWA
all evening. Latest obs show little or no obstruction to visby and
with dewpoints in the upper teens/lower 20s, do not think
widespread/dense fog will develop. Will however forecast slight
reductions in visby down to around 3-4 miles overnight. As the
high moves further away, strong southeasterly winds will develop
on Wednesday. Forecast soundings suggest gusts in the 20-25kt
range from late morning through the evening hours as the pressure
gradient continues to tighten. Next fast-moving storm system will
approach from the west late in the day, bringing an increase in
mid-level cloudiness but no precip through 06z Thu.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...kmd
LONG TERM...RC
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
543 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH LINGERING STRATUS DECK
AND TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. LEANED
TOWARD THE NAM/RAP/HRRR FOR CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL RH THIS
EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE INVERSION CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AND POTENTIALLY TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS OVER
CENTRAL IOWA DURING MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT BREAK IN
THE CLOUD DECK OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AS OF 21Z...AND THE HRRR HAS SOMEWHAT PICKED UP ON THIS TREND AND
SLOWLY ERODES THE STRATUS BY AROUND 05Z ACROSS IOWA/MINNESOTA. HAVE
STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE NORTHEAST
SLOWEST TO CLEAR OUT.
CAA CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDES INTO NORTHERN IOWA FRIDAY MORNING AND FINALLY ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. WITH THE TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...LEANED TOWARD THE RAP FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS IT SEEMED
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TEMP AND CLOUD COVER TRENDS.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE STATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONGER TERM TOMORROW MORNING WITH FRIDAY BEING THE BEST DAY OUT OF
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BY LATER
IN THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES AND READINGS ONCE
AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP ON
FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM OVERNIGHT. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT THE BULK OF
THE SYSTEM WILL COME IN LATER PERIODS.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO A SHORTWAVE TOPPING
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A VERY MOIST UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE 12Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO CLUSTER AROUND A SOLUTION OF DROPPING THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST WITH SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BRING THE MOISTURE PLUME
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT IOWA...AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO. INITIALLY...A SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THRU THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE..INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA ON SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION TO
SNOW IS LIKELY BY I80 OR HWY30 AS COLDER AIR IS ENCOUNTERED WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. FORCING WILL SUSTAIN AND INCREASE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN IOWA. ANY RAIN IN THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE EVENING AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING FROM APPROACHING SOUTHEAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP SNOW TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY.
EVENTUALLY...THE FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH THE SNOW ENDING. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ON NORTHERN SIDE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THEREFORE THE SNOW
AMOUNTS THAT ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...THE GRADIENT
APPEARS NEAR THE I80 CORRIDOR ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE WITH
SUBSEQUENT INFORMATION. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THIS EVENT...IT
DOESNT APPEAR WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET...ALTHOUGH THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SNOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BOOST US INTO
WARNING. GIVEN THE CHANGES IN MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS...WILL WAIT ON ANY HEADLINES BUT BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT MORE IN
THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS. AMOUNTS OF AROUND 6 INCHES SEEM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MO BORDER WITH 2-5 IN CENTRAL IOWA...AND AN INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL IA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS VFR CONDITIONS MOVE SOUTH OUT OF MINNESOTA. A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH CIGS BELOW 2 KFT MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...DONAVON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
533 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY TO SAY THE LEAST. INTENSE LOW EAST OF
MAINE CONTINUES TO BE HOLDING BACK EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST TODAY...RESULTING IN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
HOLDING ON OVER EASTERN IOWA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. FAST FORWARD TO
CURRENT WITH LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG EXPANDING WEST A BIT INTO
CENTRAL IOWA ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z. MESOSCALE MODELS DOING A BETTER JOB
WITH CLOUDS THAN SYNOPTIC...HRRR CAPTURES THE EXPANSION AND
GENERALLY BEGINS TO MOVE THE DECK NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS THE
PLAINS LOW ENTERS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NORTH...MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SO CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH. A WIDE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
FROM MASON CITY TO WATERLOO TO THE MID 50S AT DES MOINES TO NEAR 60
OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE NEAR RECORD HIGH HEADLINE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AS ONCE THE CLOUDS BACK OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOVE
UP RATHER QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AGAIN AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO INCREASE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. BY LATE AFTERNOON PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS. DESPITE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...6C
NORTHEAST TO 14C SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY COOLING TO 4C NORTHEAST TO 10C
SOUTH...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ADVECTION BASED RATHER THAN PURE
MIXING BASED. TOWARD SUNSET MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
A VERY FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT DMX CWA
THURSDAY MORNING. AT 06Z WED...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EASILY PICKING UP
THIS MID TO UPPER LOW CROSSING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INITIALIZE WELL WITH PLACEMENT OF THIS MID TO UPPER WAVE. TIMING
HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT...WITH THE MODELS PLACING THIS LOW DIRECTLY
OVER CENTRAL IOWA AT 06Z THU. SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW A SIZABLE
DRY AIR POCKET FROM AROUND 850MB TO 600MB WHICH WILL PREVENT CLOUD
THICKNESS FROM EXCEEDING 5 KFT AND...SUBSEQUENTLY...KEEP THIS SYSTEM
FROM PRODUCING ANYTHING BEYOND LIGHT PRECIP. KMCW TO KEST GFS
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAINLY DZ/-RA...WITH A VERY NARROW WINDOW OF -IP
TO -SN POSSIBLE FROM AROUND 09Z TO 12Z. BY 12Z THU...THIS LOW WILL
BE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND STRONG CAA ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL BE BROUGHT INTO OUR CWA. THOUGH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...DAYTIME TEMPS TO ONLY WARM AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT MINS DUE TO CAA.
THURSDAY`S WINDS REMAIN WORTH MENTIONING. MODELS SHOWING 25 KT TO
30 KT WINDS RIGHT OFF THE DECK...APPROACHING 45 KT TO THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 3MB/100KM TO SUPPORT
STRONG WINDS AT THE SFC. WITH LOW OVER GREAT LAKES...WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA. IN ALL...WIND ADVISORY
BEGINNING EARLY THU AM LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE PACKAGE.
WHILE FRIDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND QUIET...IT LOOKS LIKE QUITE A
DIFFERENT STORY IS SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE EURO AND THE GFS ARE
BEGINNING TO COME IN LINE BOTH TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY WITH
BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR "IMPACTFUL" SNOW ACCUMULATION TO OUR
CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SATURATE FROM TOP-DOWN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SEE LITTLE TO NO JUSTIFIABLE REASON FOR PRECIP DURING
THE MORNING SATURDAY...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY. SATURDAY
EVENING...SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO COMPLETELY SATURATE ACROSS THE CWA
FROM SW TO NE...BECOMING COMPLETELY SATURATED BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND
06Z SUN. BOTH GFS AND EURO HAVE A LLJ TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO
THIS SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS MOISTURE...WHICH IS HELPING YIELD A COMPARATIVELY
HIGHER QPF. HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL THUS BE IN OUR SOUTHERN
CWA. CROSS SECTIONS CLEARLY SHOW LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. WAY TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...BUT WORTH
NOTING THAT MODELS MAY BE KEYING IN ON A SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD
INCREASE CONFIDENCE.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MONDAY INTO THE MID-WEEK...IT IS A LOCK THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR
THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NOW IS HOW FAR THE
BOTTOM WILL FALL OUT ON TEMPS. ENSEMBLE RUNS ARE SHOWING AROUND -1
TO -2 STD DEV ON 850MB TEMPS ACROSS OUR CWA. TONIGHT`S 00Z GFS WAS
MARKEDLY COLDER THAN PVS RUNS. THE GFS HAS 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO
-19C ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF OUR CWA...WHEREAS THE EURO HAS 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO ONLY -10C. SINCE OBVIOUS LACK OF CONSISTENCY FROM
GFS...WILL LEAN TOWARDS MORE CONSISTENT...LESS EXTREME...EURO. IF
THIS 00Z WED GFS SOLN HOLDS IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS...MAX AND MIN TEMPS
WILL NEED AT LEAST 5 DEGREES LOPPED OFF.
&&
.AVIATION...28/12Z
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
STRATUS DECK THE MAIN CHALLENGE EARLY TODAY WITH AREA OF LIFR AND
FOG DEVELOPING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY NOW OVER CENTRAL IOWA. LOW
PRESSURE IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. HRRR MODEL AND
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CIGS WILL IMPROVE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH AFT 15Z
WHILE NORTHEAST/NORTH WILL REMAIN IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. BR AND NOW FG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTH WITH KMCW
DOWN TO 3/4SM. HAVE BROUGHT IN 1/2SM FZFG FOR BRIEF PERIOD PRIOR
TO 14Z WITH LIMITED IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THE LOW TONIGHT...WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY AFT 06-08Z REMAINING STRONG THROUGH END OF PERIOD.
CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN NORTH AFT 03Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR -DZ OVER
NORTH AFT 00Z. CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT REMAIN IFR/MVFR OVER MUCH
OF AREA AFT 03Z. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1129 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
28/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING...ALTHOUGH A QUICK LOOK
OUTSIDE SHOWS SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP HERE AT
THE LCH AIRPORT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VSBYS
AT BPT AND POSSIBLY LCH...BUT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACRS THE
REGION...FOG SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY AND SHALLOW. INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS AT BPT/LCH FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 08-12Z...BUT
OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
UPDATE...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING (28/00Z) FROM KLCH VERIFIES WHAT IS
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS A DRY AIR MASS PREVAILS. SOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RISEN THE DEW POINTS SOME THIS EVENING
AT A FEW SPOTS. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
CALM...AND CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY AIR MASS...OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK. WITH THIS...A FEW SITES MAY SEE SOME
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS AIR TEMPERATURES LATER ON REACH DEW POINTS.
HOWEVER...THINKING IS THAT OVERALL AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT PLACE IN WEATHER
GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EVENING UPDATE.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
28/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
HIGH PRES RIDGING SW ACRS THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SKC SKIES
AND LT VRBL WINDS WHICH WILL VEER MORE SELY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE AND A RATHER DRY AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALSO LIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS HELPING TO PROVIDE
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING FOR RATHER
WARM AIR TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JANUARY...FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...SOME
15F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL HELP MODIFY THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE
MORE MOIST AND COOLER GULF AIR HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY LOWER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY. HOWEVER...THESE
VALUES WILL STILL BE SOME 10F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE INCREASE
IN GULF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR
AT-LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN THE SIDE OF THE WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE LATE TOMORROW AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
PROFILES DO HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1 INCH WITH
MEAN RH BRIEFLY OVER 50 PERCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE RATHER SHALLOW AND MAINLY BELOW
5K FEET. WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALSO STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH
WITH THIS FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH IT...AND WILL KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DRY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN JET WILL INCREASE PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS PUSH DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE MOISTURE PROFILES AS LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST PAC MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BETWEEN
1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES...WITH MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT...BOTH
RESPECTABLE NUMBERS FOR THE COOL SEASON. INCREASING LIFT FROM
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERN JET...AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY...WILL TAP INTO THE
DECENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...SURFACE
INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO WILL KEEP ACTIVITY AS JUST
SHOWERS...AND NOT MENTION THUNDER.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
RUA
MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING BACK A MORE MOIST MARINE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
DEW POINTS NEARING THE NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES...AT-LEAST
SOME PATCHY SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY EVENING...ENDING FOG CHANCES AND BRINGING MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE AND BECOME EASTERLY ON SATURDAY
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HELPS FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS...THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE SUNDAY.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 45 69 51 73 / 0 0 0 0
KBPT 47 72 53 73 / 0 0 0 10
KAEX 41 71 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
KLFT 45 69 52 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1000 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA...AND THUS THE LARGE
PORTION OF THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. HAVE EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE /EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT/ UNTIL 1 AM AS A
VORT MAX WILL LIKELY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LATE EVENING PRECIP
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. EXPECT P-TYPE TO EVENTUALLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW...BUT INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THOSE AREAS THAT ARE BELOW FREEZING AT
THE SURFACE. RUC FOR EXAMPLE SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF -ZR AT HGR/MRB
LATE THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FURTHER EAST TOWARD
BALTIMORE...BUT BY THE TIME THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WOULD GET
THERE THINK P-TYPE WOULD BE JUST SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED THUS NO ADVISORY EXTENSION THAT FAR EAST.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ALSO CONTINUE ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AND
SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SYNOPTICALLY...AS WAS MENTIONED EARLIER A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FROPA WILL INITIATE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME GUSTY OVER THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT. RE-POPULATED WINDS USING THE NAM
AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CRITERIA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY /SEE SHORT TERM/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS AREA. BUFKIT POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM
AND GFS SUGGEST AOA 40 KT ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WBCNPWLWX HAS
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. STRONG VORT MAY ALSO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH ARE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.
PREV...
HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE MID ATLC WL LEAD TO A STRNG PRES GRAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN TURN WL LEAD TO A WINDY DAY. BUFKIT
X-SXNS ARE SHOWING INXS OF 40 KT A FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE GRND.
THIS WL HV THE PTNL TO BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC. WE ARE ADVSRTSG THE
PSBLTY OF A WIND ADVSRY - MOST LKLY AREAS WL BE ABV 1500 FT AND
ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA.
HIGHS IN THE LM30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES BLDG OVR THE RNG FRI NGT WL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPS. LOWS
IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WL BE DIMINISHING
OVRNGT...BUT W/ COLD TEMPS WINDS CHILLS XPCTD TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS E OF THE MTNS. PRSNTLY SEEING VALUES AS LOW AS -14 IN THE
HIGHLANDS. IF THIS TREND CONTS A WIND CHILL ADVSRY WL BE NEEDED
FOR OUR FAR WRN AREA.
SAT LOOKS TO BE M SUNNY BUT COLD W/ HIGHS RANGING FM THE U20S TO
THE MU30S OVR MOST OF THE AREA.
SAT NGT WL BE COLD...BUT A LTL WARMER THAN FRI NGT. NO WINDS SO
WIND CHILL WL NOT BE A CONCERN.
WHAT HAD BEEN A SPLIT IN THE MODELS BETWEEN A LOW TRACK TO OUR NORTH
AND ANOTHER TRACK TO OUR SOUTH SEEMS TO BE CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN TRACK NOW...TAKING IT EAST THRU S VA OR NC. THAT SUPPORTS
SNOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF OUR REGION. WOULD BE PASSING THRU AT A
GOOD CLIP BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR SUN
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUE. NEXT COLD FRONT POISED FOR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AT MRB
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE REST OF THE TERMINALS LOOK DRY WITH VFR CLOUD
DECK AROUND 5K FT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...POSSIBLY AOA
40 KT FROM AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR
AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAF ATTM.
WINDY CONDS FRI AND FRI NGT AS HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. NO
PROBS XPCTD AVIATION-WISE SAT OR SAT NGT.
SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH. VFR FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE UP THE BAY TONIGHT DUE TO S/SE WINDS. WIND
SHIFT OCCURS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT...AND GALES
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY LASTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
A GALE WRNG IS IN EFFECT FM FRI MRNG THRU THE ERLY HRS OF SAT
MRNG..AND THEN AN SCA WL LKLY GO INTO EFFECT AFTRWARDS FOR THE
RMNDR OF THE NGT. WINDS WL BE DIMINISHING FOR SAT AND SAT NGT.
GUSTY WINDS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1.5 FT ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...CLOSER TO 1 FT ON THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER. HOWEVER DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LOW ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES...THESE ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND ANOMALIES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR MDZ003-501-502.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ003>005-
502.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR VAZ025>031-503-504-507-508.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR VAZ040-051>055-057-501-502-505-506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ051>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BPP/CAS/ABW
MARINE...BPP/CAS/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
712 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MD...EASTERN WV PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY OF
VIRGINIA FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING PRECIP
TO MOVE THROUGH AND THERE STILL MAY BE SOME FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH IT BEFORE P-TYPE WOULD LIKELY
CHANGE TO JUST SNOW OVERNIGHT.
HAVE KEPT THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FURTHER DOWNSTREAM FOR NOW AS
WELL. MAIN BAND HAS MOVED EAST...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES LEFTOVER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MASON
DIXON LINE.
EVEN THOSE AREAS WHERE PRECIP IS DONE...TEMPS ALREADY BELOW
FREEZING OR DROPPING BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME
SLICK SPOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
PREV...
A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND THEREFORE A
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED FROM LAKE ERIE TO OH/IN TO KY. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WAA...PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS AND HIGHLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. A NOSE OF +3 WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AT
850MB. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB BUT COLD
SURFACES FROM RECENT COLD TEMPS AND SNOWPACK HAS SLOWED THEM FROM
CLIMBING MUCH. MANY OBS ARE AOB FREEZING AROUND WASHINGTON DC AND
BALTIMORE AND NORTH AND WEST ARE SUCH THAT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC HAS MAINLY ALLOWED TEMPS IN VALLEYS IN CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS...PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MD TO RISE TO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO 10-15KTS. THIS IS A BORDERLINE EVENT SINCE MANY ROAD
TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING BUT MESONET OBS ARE NOT. EVEN THOUGH ASOS
AND AWOS SITES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING...MANY OBS BETWEEN THOSE
SITES ARE NOT. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION MOVING EASTWARD MAY MELT
AND FREEZE ON CONTACT ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES. FURTHER
NORTH NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER...COLDER TEMPS ALOFT MAY LEAD TO MORE
SLEET AND SNOW THAN FZRA BUT ALL FROZEN PTYPES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
THEREFORE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE PRECIPITATION RATHER WELL THIS
MORNING. ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION TO BE EAST OF THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY 8PM. TEMPS SOUTH OF WASHINGTON DC ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND THEREFORE RAIN AND SLEET ARE THE MAIN
PRECIP TYPES IN THIS REGION. THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND AND MOVE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT REACHING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE
WESTERN SLOPES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO FRIDAY. ACCUMULATION OF
4-8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. DRY WESTERLY WIND EAST OF THE ALLGHENY FRONT
SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
REACH THE 20S IN THE MTNS AND LOW TO MID 30S FROM WASHINGTON DC AND
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG I-95.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE MID ATLC WL LEAD TO A STRNG PRES GRAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN TURN WL LEAD TO A WINDY DAY. BUFKIT
X-SXNS ARE SHOWING INXS OF 40 KT A FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE GRND.
THIS WL HV THE PTNL TO BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC. WE ARE ADVSRTSG THE
PSBLTY OF A WIND ADVSRY - MOST LKLY AREAS WL BE ABV 1500 FT AND
ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA.
HIGHS IN THE LM30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES BLDG OVR THE RNG FRI NGT WL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPS. LOWS
IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WL BE DIMINISHING
OVRNGT...BUT W/ COLD TEMPS WINDS CHILLS XPCTD TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS E OF THE MTNS. PRSNTLY SEEING VALUES AS LOW AS -14 IN THE
HIGHLANDS. IF THIS TREND CONTS A WIND CHILL ADVSRY WL BE NEEDED
FOR OUR FAR WRN AREA.
SAT LOOKS TO BE M SUNNY BUT COLD W/ HIGHS RANGING FM THE U20S TO
THE MU30S OVR MOST OF THE AREA.
SAT NGT WL BE COLD...BUT A LTL WARMER THAN FRI NGT. NO WINDS SO
WIND CHILL WL NOT BE A CONCERN.
WHAT HAD BEEN A SPLIT IN THE MODELS BETWEEN A LOW TRACK TO OUR NORTH
AND ANOTHER TRACK TO OUR SOUTH SEEMS TO BE CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN TRACK NOW...TAKING IT EAST THRU S VA OR NC. THAT SUPPORTS
SNOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF OUR REGION. WOULD BE PASSING THRU AT A
GOOD CLIP BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR SUN
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUE. NEXT COLD FRONT POISED FOR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
TERMINALS. PRECIP WILL MOVE QUICK AND FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY ENDING ACROSS BWI-MTN-DCA BY 8PM. MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD-DCA-MTN-BWI AS COLDER AIR FURTHER NORTH GIVES A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SNPL. FURTHER SOUTH..CHO SHOULD STAY RAPL. S
WINDS 10-15KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. A STRONG FROPA IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS 20-25KTS G
35-40 EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
WINDY CONDS FRI AND FRI NGT AS HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. NO
PROBS XPCTD AVIATION-WISE SAT OR SAT NGT.
SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH. VFR FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A WINTRY MIX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. A MIX OF SNOW
SLEET AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD END BY LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A
STRONG FROPA MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING. NW WINDS
20-25KT GUST AROUND 45KTS POSSIBLE. SCA ARE IN EFFECT AND WILL
TRANSITION TO A GALE WARNING FRIDAY.
A GALE WRNG IS IN EFFECT FM FRI MRNG THRU THE ERLY HRS OF SAT
MRNG..AND THEN AN SCA WL LKLY GO INTO EFFECT AFTRWARDS FOR THE
RMNDR OF THE NGT. WINDS WL BE DIMINISHING FOR SAT AND SAT NGT.
GUSTY WINDS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ003>006-011-013-014-502>508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-
031-052>054-501-505-506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ050>053-504.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
BPP/HAS/WOODY!/CAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
445 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES TO
THE W AND NW. ONE IS MOVING OUT OF WY/CO INTO THE WRN PLAINS AND THE
OTHER IS MOVING FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO SRN MANITOBA. AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES...A RIBBON OF STRENGTHENING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
SPREADING ESE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET CURVING FROM NRN ONTARIO DOWN
THRU THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A STREAK OF RADAR
RETURNS EXTENDING ESE FROM SE MANITOBA ACROSS ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO
AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/ERN UPPER MI. THE ASCENT HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO ERODE DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALLOW SOME -SN TO REACH THE
GROUND FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW INTO THE NCNTRL AND ERN FCST
AREA.
PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE MOVING ESE TONIGHT WITH THE NRN
STREAM WAVE THE MORE IMPORTANT FEATURE FOR THE WEATHER HERE. AS THE
WAVE APPROACHES...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 295K SFC INCREASES
TONIGHT...MOST NOTABLY OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI. WHILE IT WILL BE
TOO WARM FOR ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THE FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL STILL AID THE MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS. OVER THE
W...THE WINDOW OF COLUMN MOISTENING IS SHORTER BEFORE THE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DEPARTS OVERNIGHT. THUS...PCPN AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL BE
LIGHTEST OVER THE W AND GREATER OVER THE E. 295K SFC SHOWS MIXING
RATIOS OF 3-4G/KG AVBL...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4INCHES OF
SNOW FOR THE ROUGHLY 6HRS OF ASCENT EXPECTED. 4 INCHES IS LIKELY TOO
HIGH SINCE SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER SIDE. AS IT
IS...WILL PROBABLY BE CLOSE TO ADVY THRESHOLD OVER THE FAR E...
MAINLY LUCE COUNTY...AS 12HR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM LATE EVENING TO
LATE THU MORNING WILL BE NEAR 3 INCHES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
STEADILY LIGHTER TO THE W...DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FAR W AND ALONG
THE WI BORDER. LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZDZ AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE/SYNOPTIC
SNOW EXIT...LEAVING A LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER THAT HAS TEMPS HIGHER
THAN -10C. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF -FZDZ WHERE WINDS WILL BE
UPSLOPING.
COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS UPPER MI THU MORNING. DESPITE INCREASING
WIND FIELDS...INITIAL CAA IS WEAK AS THERMAL GRADIENT IS DISPLACED
OFF TO THE NW...BUT CAA INCREASES QUICKLY IN THE AFTN. 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -10C IN THE MORNING WILL FALL TO NEAR -20C BY 00Z FRI...AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN. LAST
OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL END OVER THE E IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN (-SN/-FZDZ)
DURING THE MORNING AWAY FROM AREAS THAT SEE UPSLOPING UNDER NW
WINDS. AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE AFTN...NW/NNW FLOW LES WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH DGZ DROPPING INTO THE CONVECTIVE LAYER.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY. SO FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY AROUND
1 INCH IN THE AFTN. STRONG WINDS WILL DISPLACE LES A LITTLE FARTHER
INLAND THAN NORMAL. SPEAKING OF WINDS...FAVORABLE POSTIONING OF PRES
RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIVE ISALLOBARIC WIND
COMPONENT. COMBINED WITH 925MB WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
40KT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY ACROSS THE AREA. ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE AROUND THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM BIG BAY
EASTWARD...WINDS WILL PROBABLY GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTN.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY LES INCREASES IN THE AFTN...BLSN COULD
BECOME A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE NEAR THE LAKE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CWA AT 00Z FRI...WITH MOST OF
THE ASSOCIATED FORCING E OF THE CWA BY THAT TIME. NW-NNW LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -22C WILL KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE NW-
NNW WINDS SNOWBELTS THU NIGHT...BUT A SFC RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH ON
FRI WILL LEAD TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE LES AS WINDS BECOME ANTI-
CYCLONIC. WINDS TURN SWLY BY FRI NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AND AHEAD
OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT. NW WIND LES WILL RAMP UP ALONG AND BEHIND THE
TROUGH AS 850MB WINDS AS LOW AS -30C SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
LOOK TO MODERATE SOME MON INTO TUE AS A RIDGE MOVES THROUGH...WITH
ANOTHER COLD BLAST SHOWN BY MODELS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OVER THE NEXT WEEK THE NW WINDS SNOWBELTS MAINLY E OF MARQUETTE WILL
SEE THE MOST SNOWFALL...WITH PROLONGED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL.
WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS... GROWTH WILL BE ADVERSELY
IMPACTED...WITH SMALL SNOW FLAKES EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VIS THE
PREDOMINANT CONDITION.
COLD TEMPS ARE A CERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON WHEN HIGHS WILL
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015
BASED ON OBS AROUND THE AREA...IT APPEARS VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THIS AFTN. WILL NEED TO WATCH LOW CLOUDS
STREAMING N UP LAKE MICHIGAN. AS WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY THIS AFTN...
THESE LOWER CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY REACH KSAW EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED. AT KIWD...DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT SHOULD PREVENT THE
LOWER CLOUDS IN NRN WI FROM REACHING THE TERMINAL. DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME -SN/DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.
ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR WITH A FEW HRS OF LIFR
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE -FZDZ LATE TONIGHT AT
KIWD. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY THU MORNING WILL BRING
INCREASING...GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX
TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF...S WINDS OF 20-30KT ARE
EXPECTED OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. AS IS TYPICAL FOR SOUTHERLY
WINDS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. THE TROF WILL PASS ACROSS
THE LAKE THU MORNING. BEHIND IT...N TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-
30KT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN LAKE...WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT) FOR THU AFTN AND
NIGHT. COMBINATION OF MUCH COLDER AIR/STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING
WAVES WILL LEAD TO HVY FREEZING SPRAY THU AFTN UNTIL EARLY FRI
MORNING WHEN WINDS/WAVES DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRES. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS MOSTLY UNDER
20KT FRI AFTN/NIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-30KT
SAT...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN/NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRES TROUGH.
GALES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH FOR A TIME SUN BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265-
266.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-
264.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
413 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS...FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP
TROF ALONG THE E COAST. RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
QUIETER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS JUST
UPSTREAM OVER NRN ONTARIO. SO...THERE IS NO PCPN OF NOTE TODAY.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES OFF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
MENOMINEE COUNTY...AND RECENTLY FLURRIES HAVE APPEARED ON KMQT RADAR
IMAGERY IN CNTRL UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER
SRN QUEBEC WITH RIDGE EXTENDING BACK THRU THE UPPER LAKES. DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN A SUNNY DAY OVER ERN UPPER
MI...ROUGHLY E OF A MUNISING-ESCANABA LINE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW UPPER
MI DID HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLIER TODAY.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THE BIG IMPACT
THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON TEMPS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND
TO START THE EVENING...THE ERN FCST AREA WILL BE COLDEST TONIGHT.
LOWERED MINS TO AROUND 0F IN THAT AREA...BUT IT COULD BE 5 OR MORE
DEGREES COLDER IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR THRU THE WHOLE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS
STREAKING SE WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
CANADIAN ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY FROM LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING NE IN
DEVELOPING SW FLOW. THIS WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON COOLING AND PROBABLY
LEAD TO TEMPS RISING SOME OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA...THE EXPANSE OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING W...SW AND S OVER MUCH OF
MN AND WI SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNDER
LOW-LEVEL S TO SW WINDS. EVEN IF LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT IN SOME
AREAS...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 15-20F RANGE.
ON WED....ONE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO
THE DAKOTAS/MANITOBA WHILE A SECOND MOVES FROM WY/CO TO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE NRN WAVE...WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ESE THRU THE DAY UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
UPPER JET. WITH THE FOCUS OF MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT JUST TO THE N
AND WITH DRIER AIR HOLDING ON AT LOW LEVELS...THE MAIN STREAK OF
SNOW WILL REMAIN N OF HERE WED AFTN. MODEL AGREEMENT IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON THIS POINT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER THE SRN EDGE OF THE SNOW MAY CLIP THE AREA. BASED ON
STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND TEMP/MOISTURE PROFILES ON FCST
SOUNDINGS...THE KEWEENAW AND FAR ERN FCST AREA MAY GET CLIPPED BY A
LITTLE -SN. INCLUDED ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS TO REFLECT THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S/LWR 30S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015
FCST FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WL TURN TO THE IMPACT OF
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU A DEEPENING
UPR TROF IN ERN NAMERICA THAT WL BRING A RETURN OF BLO NORMAL TEMPS
MOST OF THIS TIME TO THE CWA. WITH THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR...LES WL
ALSO BE A CONCERN.
THU...THE FIRST OF THESE CLIPPER SHRTWVS IS CURRENTLY MOVING E THRU
ALBERTA AND IS FCST TO BE NEAR FAR NW LAKE SUP AT 12Z THU BEFORE
MOVING TO NEAR THE SAULT AT 00Z FRI TO THE N OF ANOTHER SHRTWV/SFC
LO PRES DRIFTING THRU THE LOWER LKS. THE MODELS INDICATE THERE WL BE
LTL IF ANY PHASING BTWN THESE SEPARTE DISTURBANCES...SO LINGERING
LIGHT SN IN THE WAA/DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS NRN
SHRTWV SHOULD BE DIMINISHING W-E ON THU MRNG AS ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FNT SWEEPS SE AND CLEARS THE CWA BY 18Z THU. NNW H925 WINDS FCST
AS HI AS 35 TO 40 KTS UNDER THE SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LO MOVING INTO SE ONTARIO AND TRAILING ARCTIC HI
PRES BLDG THRU SCENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE
UPR LKS...DROPPING H85 TEMPS OVER THE UPR LKS TO ARND -20C BY 00Z
FRI. BEFORE THIS VERY COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE
AFTN...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE A BIT OF FREEZING DZ
MIXED WITH LINGERING LIGHT SN IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP AS
SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOIST LYR WARMER THAN
-10C FOR A COUPLE OF HRS. THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR WL FAVOR
FALLING TEMPS AND LES IN THE AFTN. SO INCLUDED A SCHC OF SOME OF
THIS WINTRY MIX. BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE RELATED TO THE VIGOROUS
CAA/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IS FCST TO DROP THE INVRN BASE TO
BTWN H85-9 DURING THE DAY...WHICH ALONG WITH A NEUTRAL/ACYC LLVL
FLOW LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SN SHOWERS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE DGZ WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LYR. WITH THE STRONG CAA/NEAR SFC
DESTABILIZATION AND THE EXPECTED H925 WINDS...WIND GUSTS AT EXPOSED
AREAS NEAR LK SUP WL AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA AND BRING ABOUT
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SN. SINCE SN AMOUNTS WL BE MARGINAL...DID NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES. WL MENTION THE GUSTY WINDS/BLOWING SN IN THE
HWO.
THU NGT...PERSISTENT COLD BUT SLOWLY DIMINISHING NNW WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF SLOWLY APRCHG SFC HI PRES WL BRING CONTINUED LES IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS...BUT AS INVRN BASE SINKS FURTHER W-E UNDER THE
LARGER SCALE DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG
AXIS...FOLLOWED TREND OF PREVIOUS FCST TO SHOW DCRSG POPS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W...WHERE THE H925 FLOW WL BECOME MORE SHARPLY ACYC. OVER
THE FAR W...THE LES MAY END COMPLETELY BY 12Z WITH FCST INVRN BASE
NEAR H95. AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF MAY FALL BLO
ZERO IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT CONTINUED NW SFC-H925 FLOW WL FAVOR SOME
MODERATION OFF LK SUP AND LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE SUB ZERO MINS.
FRI...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO SHIFT FM OVER MN INTO THE LOWER LKS. AS
WINDS BACK TO THE W...LINGERING LES OVER THE W WL BECOME CONFINED TO
OVER THE KEWEENAW AND END OVER THE E EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORE E OF
GRAND MARAIS TOWARD 00Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LK CLDS WL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...MORE MID/HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING SE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF WL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPR LKS.
FRI NGT/SAT...SHRTWV IS FCST TO SLIDE ESEWD THRU THE UPR LKS. SINCE
THIS DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO BE FAIRLY SHEARED OUT WITH ONLY
AN AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MSTR INFLOW WL BE
FAIRLY LIMITED...SUSPECT ACCOMPANYING SN WL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SN OVER THE E ON SAT MRNG WL END WITH ARRIVAL OF
LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING AND GIVE WAY TO SOME LES AS
COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THE SHRTWV AND DROPS H85 TEMPS TOWARD -20C AGAIN
LATE. BUT MORE DIFFLUENT ACYC H925 FLOW/LO SUBSIDENCE INVRN FCST IN
THE H875-9 RANGE WL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR LES INTENSITY AGAIN.
EXTENDED...UNDER A NW FLOW ALF BTWN A MEAN TROF OVER ERN CANADA AND
A RDG OVER THE W...ARCTIC HI PRES IS FCST TO SINK SEWD FM WRN CANADA
ON SUN INTO UPR MS VALLEY ON MON AND THEN INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY
ON TUE...BRINGING A CONTINUOUS FEED OF CNDN AIR AND H85 TEMPS
FALLING AS LO AS -25C BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A NUMBER OF THE EXTENDED
MODELS ARE HINTING A LO PRES WL TAKE SHAPE IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLY
ON SUN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS...BUT
INDICATE THE SFC LO WL TRACK ENE FAR ENUF TO THE SE OF UPR MI TO
KEEP THE ASSOCIATED PCPN SHIELD TO THE S AS WELL. BUT THE CHILL OF
THE INCOMING AIRMASS INDICATES LES WL BE A GOOD BET IN THE FAVORED
SN BELTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MODERATION NEXT TUE INTO WED AS THE SW
FLOW BTWN THE HI MOVING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ANOTHER
SHRTWV DROPPING SE THRU SCENTRAL CANADA DRAWS H85 TEMPS IN THE -10
TO -12C RANGE BACK INTO THE UPR LKS. BUT THIS CLIPPER MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SN. AS THE TROF DEEPENS AGAIN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS MAY INVADE LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015
BASED ON UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF WI AND MN AND ALSO MID CLOUDS
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FROM ONTARIO...MVFR CLOUD DECK
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FCST PD AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END MVFR BY WED AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING
FROM SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN FROM ONTARIO WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA WED EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL BE AT KCMX WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING WITH DISTURBANCE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015
A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH N-NNW GALES OF 35-40KTS.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO THIS MORNING TO SHIFT E AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE N PLAINS WILL MOVE TO AROUND CHICAGO ON THURSDAY...AND INTO N
NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW MOVES FROM S SASKATCHEWAN
TO N LAKE SUPERIOR AND QUEBEC. IN THEIR WAKE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
OVER S CENTRAL CANADA TO FOLLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
FRIDAY...USHERING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY MORNING.
AS THIS HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY...A LOW
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL THEN PUSH
OVER SE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. N WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO 20-30KTS
SATURDAY-SUNDAY. LOOK FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER W CANADA ON
SUNDAY...AND EXTEND A RIDGE INTO ONTARIO JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ267.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ266.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ264-265.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
321 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS...FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP
TROF ALONG THE E COAST. RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
QUIETER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS JUST
UPSTREAM OVER NRN ONTARIO. SO...THERE IS NO PCPN OF NOTE TODAY.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES OFF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
MENOMINEE COUNTY...AND RECENTLY FLURRIES HAVE APPEARED ON KMQT RADAR
IMAGERY IN CNTRL UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER
SRN QUEBEC WITH RIDGE EXTENDING BACK THRU THE UPPER LAKES. DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN A SUNNY DAY OVER ERN UPPER
MI...ROUGHLY E OF A MUNISING-ESCANABA LINE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW UPPER
MI DID HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLIER TODAY.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THE BIG IMPACT
THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON TEMPS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND
TO START THE EVENING...THE ERN FCST AREA WILL BE COLDEST TONIGHT.
LOWERED MINS TO AROUND 0F IN THAT AREA...BUT IT COULD BE 5 OR MORE
DEGREES COLDER IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR THRU THE WHOLE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS
STREAKING SE WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
CANADIAN ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY FROM LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING NE IN
DEVELOPING SW FLOW. THIS WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON COOLING AND PROBABLY
LEAD TO TEMPS RISING SOME OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA...THE EXPANSE OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING W...SW AND S OVER MUCH OF
MN AND WI SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNDER
LOW-LEVEL S TO SW WINDS. EVEN IF LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT IN SOME
AREAS...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 15-20F RANGE.
ON WED....ONE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO
THE DAKOTAS/MANITOBA WHILE A SECOND MOVES FROM WY/CO TO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE NRN WAVE...WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ESE THRU THE DAY UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
UPPER JET. WITH THE FOCUS OF MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT JUST TO THE N
AND WITH DRIER AIR HOLDING ON AT LOW LEVELS...THE MAIN STREAK OF
SNOW WILL REMAIN N OF HERE WED AFTN. MODEL AGREEMENT IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON THIS POINT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER THE SRN EDGE OF THE SNOW MAY CLIP THE AREA. BASED ON
STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND TEMP/MOISTURE PROFILES ON FCST
SOUNDINGS...THE KEWEENAW AND FAR ERN FCST AREA MAY GET CLIPPED BY A
LITTLE -SN. INCLUDED ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS TO REFLECT THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S/LWR 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND AN UPPER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE
UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA.
THUS...EXPECT GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THREE PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE SOUTHERN TWO WAVES WILL BE SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE INVERTED TROUGH CROSSING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TIED TO THE NOSE OF THE
850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION INTERACTING WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
THINKING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE POCKET OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 925-750MB.
THEN AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT SNOW TO QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THAT INITIAL PRECIPITATION
STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE LAND AREA INITIALLY...HAVE TRENDED
QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL (1-2IN).
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HOUGHTON TO MANISTIQUE...HAVE AMOUNTS IN
THE 2-3.5 INCH RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO FOR
THOSE AREAS. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH TERRAIN INFLUENCE TO HELP KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SNOW BELTS UNTIL THE COLD AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASES DELTA-T VALUES TOWARDS THE LOW 20S
BY THURSDAY EVENING. THERE ARE HINTS OF LIMITED ICE CRYSTALS (AND
THUS FREEZING DRIZZLE) OVER THE WEST AS THAT DEEP MOISTURE
DEPARTS...BUT THINK IT IS TOO MARGINAL TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.
WITH THAT COLD AIR ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL TREND POPS UP TO LIKELY/DEFINITE VALUES
FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE
SNOW IS EXPECTED...THERE ARE A COUPLE LIMITING FACTORS FOR HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. FIRST...THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
KEEP THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 5KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE
MUCH OF THE CLOUD WILL BE IN OR JUST ABOVE THE DGZ...THINK THE
FRACTURING OF THE FLAKES FROM THE GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP SNOW RATIOS
LOWER (BUT BE BETTER AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES). THUS...HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-4 INCHES IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELTS DURING THAT
PERIOD. AS THE HIGH MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
WINDS TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST AND LOWER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
TOWARDS 4KFT. THEREFORE...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND DRAG A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WITH IT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING WITH
THIS FEATURE...SO WILL GO WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE JUST A QUICK DUSTING OF
SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE. BEHIND THE TROUGH...COLD AIR WILL FILTER
BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS. ONCE AGAIN...THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING EAST INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 5KFT AND KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. ONE ITEM TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE ARE HINTS THAT
THIS MAY RAISE INVERSION HEIGHTS TOWARDS 7-10KFT...WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT. WHEN THAT
OCCURS...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO THE
MID -20S) THE CLOUD WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE DGZ AND SUPPORT SMALL
FLAKES THAT ARE HIGHLY EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VISIBILITY. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY MORNING TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...EXPECT GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR AT LEAST LIKELY
POPS FOR THE FAVORED WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY (WINDS NEAR
WESTERLY BY TUESDAY EVENING). WON/T MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS
POINT...AS AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT MAY NEED TO ADDRESS
THE END OF THE WEEK LAKE EFFECT AND THE SUN-TUE LAKE EFFECT IN THE
FUTURE DUE TO THE LIKELY LOW VISIBILITIES IN THE STRONGER BANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015
BASED ON UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF WI AND MN AND ALSO MID CLOUDS
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FROM ONTARIO...MVFR CLOUD DECK
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FCST PD AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END MVFR BY WED AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING
FROM SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN FROM ONTARIO WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA WED EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL BE AT KCMX WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING WITH DISTURBANCE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015
A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH N-NNW GALES OF 35-40KTS.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO THIS MORNING TO SHIFT E AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE N PLAINS WILL MOVE TO AROUND CHICAGO ON THURSDAY...AND INTO N
NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW MOVES FROM S SASKATCHEWAN
TO N LAKE SUPERIOR AND QUEBEC. IN THEIR WAKE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
OVER S CENTRAL CANADA TO FOLLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
FRIDAY...USHERING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY MORNING.
AS THIS HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY...A LOW
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL THEN PUSH
OVER SE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. N WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO 20-30KTS
SATURDAY-SUNDAY. LOOK FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER W CANADA ON
SUNDAY...AND EXTEND A RIDGE INTO ONTARIO JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1203 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS...FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP
TROF ALONG THE E COAST. RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
QUIETER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS JUST
UPSTREAM OVER NRN ONTARIO. SO...THERE IS NO PCPN OF NOTE TODAY.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES OFF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
MENOMINEE COUNTY...AND RECENTLY FLURRIES HAVE APPEARED ON KMQT RADAR
IMAGERY IN CNTRL UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER
SRN QUEBEC WITH RIDGE EXTENDING BACK THRU THE UPPER LAKES. DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN A SUNNY DAY OVER ERN UPPER
MI...ROUGHLY E OF A MUNISING-ESCANABA LINE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW UPPER
MI DID HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLIER TODAY.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THE BIG IMPACT
THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON TEMPS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND
TO START THE EVENING...THE ERN FCST AREA WILL BE COLDEST TONIGHT.
LOWERED MINS TO AROUND 0F IN THAT AREA...BUT IT COULD BE 5 OR MORE
DEGREES COLDER IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR THRU THE WHOLE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS
STREAKING SE WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
CANADIAN ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY FROM LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING NE IN
DEVELOPING SW FLOW. THIS WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON COOLING AND PROBABLY
LEAD TO TEMPS RISING SOME OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA...THE EXPANSE OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING W...SW AND S OVER MUCH OF
MN AND WI SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNDER
LOW-LEVEL S TO SW WINDS. EVEN IF LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT IN SOME
AREAS...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 15-20F RANGE.
ON WED....ONE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO
THE DAKOTAS/MANITOBA WHILE A SECOND MOVES FROM WY/CO TO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE NRN WAVE...WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ESE THRU THE DAY UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
UPPER JET. WITH THE FOCUS OF MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT JUST TO THE N
AND WITH DRIER AIR HOLDING ON AT LOW LEVELS...THE MAIN STREAK OF
SNOW WILL REMAIN N OF HERE WED AFTN. MODEL AGREEMENT IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON THIS POINT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER THE SRN EDGE OF THE SNOW MAY CLIP THE AREA. BASED ON
STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND TEMP/MOISTURE PROFILES ON FCST
SOUNDINGS...THE KEWEENAW AND FAR ERN FCST AREA MAY GET CLIPPED BY A
LITTLE -SN. INCLUDED ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS TO REFLECT THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S/LWR 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND AN UPPER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE
UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA.
THUS...EXPECT GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THREE PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE SOUTHERN TWO WAVES WILL BE SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE INVERTED TROUGH CROSSING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TIED TO THE NOSE OF THE
850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION INTERACTING WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
THINKING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE POCKET OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 925-750MB.
THEN AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT SNOW TO QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THAT INITIAL PRECIPITATION
STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE LAND AREA INITIALLY...HAVE TRENDED
QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL (1-2IN).
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HOUGHTON TO MANISTIQUE...HAVE AMOUNTS IN
THE 2-3.5 INCH RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO FOR
THOSE AREAS. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH TERRAIN INFLUENCE TO HELP KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SNOW BELTS UNTIL THE COLD AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASES DELTA-T VALUES TOWARDS THE LOW 20S
BY THURSDAY EVENING. THERE ARE HINTS OF LIMITED ICE CRYSTALS (AND
THUS FREEZING DRIZZLE) OVER THE WEST AS THAT DEEP MOISTURE
DEPARTS...BUT THINK IT IS TOO MARGINAL TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.
WITH THAT COLD AIR ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL TREND POPS UP TO LIKELY/DEFINITE VALUES
FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE
SNOW IS EXPECTED...THERE ARE A COUPLE LIMITING FACTORS FOR HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. FIRST...THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
KEEP THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 5KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE
MUCH OF THE CLOUD WILL BE IN OR JUST ABOVE THE DGZ...THINK THE
FRACTURING OF THE FLAKES FROM THE GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP SNOW RATIOS
LOWER (BUT BE BETTER AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES). THUS...HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-4 INCHES IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELTS DURING THAT
PERIOD. AS THE HIGH MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
WINDS TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST AND LOWER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
TOWARDS 4KFT. THEREFORE...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND DRAG A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WITH IT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING WITH
THIS FEATURE...SO WILL GO WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE JUST A QUICK DUSTING OF
SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE. BEHIND THE TROUGH...COLD AIR WILL FILTER
BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS. ONCE AGAIN...THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING EAST INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 5KFT AND KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. ONE ITEM TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE ARE HINTS THAT
THIS MAY RAISE INVERSION HEIGHTS TOWARDS 7-10KFT...WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT. WHEN THAT
OCCURS...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO THE
MID -20S) THE CLOUD WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE DGZ AND SUPPORT SMALL
FLAKES THAT ARE HIGHLY EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VISIBILITY. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY MORNING TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...EXPECT GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR AT LEAST LIKELY
POPS FOR THE FAVORED WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY (WINDS NEAR
WESTERLY BY TUESDAY EVENING). WON/T MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS
POINT...AS AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT MAY NEED TO ADDRESS
THE END OF THE WEEK LAKE EFFECT AND THE SUN-TUE LAKE EFFECT IN THE
FUTURE DUE TO THE LIKELY LOW VISIBILITIES IN THE STRONGER BANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015
BASED ON UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF WI AND MN AND ALSO MID CLOUDS
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FROM ONTARIO...MVFR CLOUD DECK
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FCST PD AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END MVFR BY WED AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING
FROM SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN FROM ONTARIO WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA WED EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL BE AT KCMX WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING WITH DISTURBANCE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT TONIGHT/WED. LOW PRES WILL THEN TRACK
FROM THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED EVENING TO THE LOWER
LAKES BY LATE THU EVENING. AHEAD OF THE LOW...S WINDS WILL INCREASE
FOR A TIME WED NIGHT...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS
WILL REACH 20-30KT. BEHIND THE LOW ON THU...N TO NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-30KT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
LAKE...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE FOR THU AFTN AND NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF MUCH COLDER AIR/STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES WILL
LEAD TO HVY FREEZING SPRAY THU AFTN UNTIL LATE FRI MORNING WHEN
WINDS/WAVES DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF CANADIAN HIGH PRES.
AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT FRI INTO SAT
MORNING...N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT LATER SAT INTO SUN
IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRES TROUGH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
342 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015
AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM AHEAD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IL BY THURSDAY
MORNING. LITTLE ICE IS INDICATED ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS OF THE FA TONIGHT WITH DEEPENING LOW LEVEL SATURATION. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE RATHER DRAMATICALLY
EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN IA ON NORTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL
WI...WITH A VEERING PROFILE THROUGH 800MB. THIS SHOULD ADD THE
TURBULENCE FACTOR TO ALLOW FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WI FROM AROUND MID EVENING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS COLLABORATED BY RUNS TODAY OF THE
HOPWRF...HRRR AND RAP SHOWING SOME A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THEREFORE...ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FROM 9 PM THROUGH 3 AM FROM RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH ON SOUTH
THROUGH MENOMONIE AND AUGUSTA. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTHWARD WHERE CONFIDENCE ON
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LOWER.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS EASTERN SD AND SW MN
AFTER MIDNIGHT (12 MILLIBARS). IN FACT...6 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES
ARE NEAR 14 MILLIBARS TO OUR WEST. BUFKIT PROFILE DATA SHOWED TWO
THINGS. FIRST...THE NAM PROFILE HAD THE STRONGEST TOP OF THE
CHANNEL WINDS NEARING 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE MN RIVER VALLEY AROUND
09Z WHILE THE GFS PROFILE HAD 32 KNOT WINDS AT 200 FEET AT KFRM.
THE COMBINATION OF CAA AND A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO THE TOP OF THE
CHANNEL RESULTED IN A WIND ADVISORY BEING ISSUED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM APPLETON TO ALBERT LEA FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE INTERESTING. BECAUSE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM A LITTLE THIS EVENING AND THEN DROP BACK TO A LITTLE
BELOW WHERE WE ARE NOW. THURSDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE EARLY IN THE MORNING
WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY THIS TIME
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015
BY TOMORROW EVENING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING AND
THOSE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL START TO SLOWLY DECREASE. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER MORNINGS WE`VE HAD
IN TWO+ WEEKS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO NEAR LADYSMITH...TO
ABOUT 10-15 ABOVE TOWARD REDWOOD FALLS. THE CORE OF THE COLD WILL
ESSENTIALLY MISS US TO THE EAST AS IT IS DRAGGED SOUTH BEHIND THE
SYSTEM IMPACTING OUT REGION TONIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THE COLDER
AIR IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
20 IN WEST CENTRAL WI...BUT WARMER AIR THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 20S FOR EASTERN MN AND LOW 30S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MN.
THE MAIN CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO THE SATURDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM. BOTH THE GFS AND EC RUNS CAME IN WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PUSHING SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM JET BUCKLES SOUTHWARD ALLOWING DRY ARCTIC AIR TO
ADVANCE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED. THIS IS A GREAT
HINDRANCE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FROM A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. BUT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW FROM A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH AN
ENHANCED AREA OF PV ADVECTING SOUTHEAST AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 120KT JET STREAK. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL
THROUGH WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THE PRE-EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.
IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BEGIN FEBRUARY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AFTER AN IMPRESSIVE WARM STRETCH FOR THE LAST 3 WEEKS OF
JANUARY. BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES...GIVING US MORE OF A GLANCING
BLOW. ANOTHER POSSIBLE CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR VFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THE VFR CEILINGS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS IS THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. LITTLE ICE IS INDICATED ALOFT WITH A SATURATED PROFILE
FROM 800MB ON DOWNWARD. THIS IS COUPLED WITH A STRONGLY VEERED LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BEST
LOCATION IS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 IN MN AND ACROSS ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL WI WITH TIMING FROM 00Z-09Z. THEREFORE -FZDZ WAS INDICATED
IN ALL OF THE TAFS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRWF. THE WORST AREA
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI. IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE.
THE HIGHER END SUSTAINED (20KTS) AND GUSTS (35KTS) ARE MOST LIKELY
AT KAXN AND KRWF.
KMSP...CEILINGS MAY LIFT A LITTLE ABOVE 010 THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS AT OR BELOW THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A
SLOW UP TREND THEREAFTER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON A FEW HOURS
OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE BEST TIME DURING THE EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NGT...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS EARLY. WIND NW 10KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS/-SN. WIND NW 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
MNZ054-056-064-065-073>075-082>084-091>093.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR WIZ015-016-025-027-028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1158 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
LATE THIS MORNING...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND ANY REPORTS OF LOCAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR OR SNOW AS OF 11 AM. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING
FZDZ FOR ANY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT WILL ADD SOME TO THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING FOR A TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE
REPORTING. SHOULD SEE THE FOG LIFT BY 15Z. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
LOW PRESSURE WAS ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS AT 08Z WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO NW
ONTARIO. IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS
FALLING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR
THE FRONT FROM WINNIPEG TO NEAR DRYDEN. LATEST SHORT TERM HRRR AND
RAP KEEP THIS FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE ARROWHEAD IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY END BY NOON. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SFC LOW MOVES EASTWARD WITH THE LOW CENTER
BEGINS TO REORGANIZE AND DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO REVEL THEMSELVES WITH RESPECT
TO QPF PLACEMENT AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LIMITED QPF AND KEEPS IT NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND KEPT POPS TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE ALL SNOW. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING THE
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND HAVE REMOVED.
TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND THEIR TIMING ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE SNOW ENDING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL
SNOW AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
SLEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH FOUND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
ON THURSDAY...ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER
AS MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AS
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A NW
WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND CAA WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH SHORE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT HOWEVER AS DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
MUCH COLDER AIR ON THE WAY FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
FROM...YOU GUESSED IT...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM THAT WILL
/AT LEAST TEMPORARILY/ PUT A STOP TO WHAT HAS BEEN A LONG PERIOD OF
WEAK /AND FRANKLY DISAPPOINTING FOR SNOW LOVERS/ CLIPPERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY MILD PATTERN TO A
COLDER REGIME...ENDING THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR
TO THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SERIES OF STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LATE THIS WEEK AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK CLIPPER ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS WILL DESCEND OVER THE
MIDWEST LEADING TO VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS APPROACHING THE
COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY IN THE MID -20S C /COMPARED TO 00Z
TODAY WHEN THEY WERE IN THE WARMEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMO AT AROUND
0C/.
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS. GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH ECMWF PESSIMISTIC ON INTENSITY AND
GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. GEM WAS SLOWER
AND NOT AS INTENSE OVERALL...BUT THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
12Z GEM WHICH WAS FASTER AND MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON PRECIP. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OR TWO FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA NORTH
OF HIGHWAY TWO. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE
SEVEN DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH 850MB AND GREAT NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE LAKE. ICE COVERAGE ON THE SOUTH SHORE MAY LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...AND OPTED TO LEAVE NORTHERN
BAYFIELD COUNTY OUT OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DUE
TO WHAT WOULD BE A VERY LIMITED FETCH LENGTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR AS NAM/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A NEAR-SURFACE DRY
LAYER...SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE LOW LEVELS AND THUS LIMIT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.
TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...AND HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS A LITTLE COLDER THAN INITIAL GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE ARCTIC HIGHS THAT WILL BE OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA IN THE
LONG TERM. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ON SATURDAY...THEN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE TEENS
TUESDAY. LOWS NEAR ZERO TO TEN OR MORE BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...MILD FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS...THEN 0 TO
-15 SATURDAY NIGHT AND 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO...AND COLD SPOTS IN THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION NEAR 40 BELOW ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AT ALL TERMINALS. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING
FOG HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO...AND EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO INL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS LOW...BUT
IT SEEMS FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING FOG ARE MORE LIKELY THAN LIGHT
SNOW WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS DEEPER SATURATION EXPANDS ACROSS
REMAINING MN AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON...INTRODUCED A MIX OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW BEFORE 29.00Z. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE AT HAYWARD...WHERE ONSET SHOULD BE DELAYED
UNTIL THIS EVENING.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER OVERNIGHT AND
COLD AIR POURING INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...BUT THE INCREASE IN SPEEDS WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SWITCH PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW AND THE
STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 31 24 24 -1 / 10 50 10 0
INL 31 16 16 -10 / 10 60 10 0
BRD 34 22 22 5 / 10 40 0 0
HYR 32 27 28 -2 / 10 50 20 0
ASX 34 27 29 2 / 10 50 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1132 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
LATE THIS MORNING...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND ANY REPORTS OF LOCAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR OR SNOW AS OF 11 AM. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING
FZDZ FOR ANY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT WILL ADD SOME TO THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING FOR A TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE
REPORTING. SHOULD SEE THE FOG LIFT BY 15Z. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
LOW PRESSURE WAS ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS AT 08Z WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO NW
ONTARIO. IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS
FALLING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR
THE FRONT FROM WINNIPEG TO NEAR DRYDEN. LATEST SHORT TERM HRRR AND
RAP KEEP THIS FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE ARROWHEAD IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY END BY NOON. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SFC LOW MOVES EASTWARD WITH THE LOW CENTER
BEGINS TO REORGANIZE AND DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO REVEL THEMSELVES WITH RESPECT
TO QPF PLACEMENT AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LIMITED QPF AND KEEPS IT NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND KEPT POPS TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE ALL SNOW. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING THE
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND HAVE REMOVED.
TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND THEIR TIMING ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE SNOW ENDING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL
SNOW AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
SLEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH FOUND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
ON THURSDAY...ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER
AS MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AS
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A NW
WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND CAA WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH SHORE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT HOWEVER AS DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
MUCH COLDER AIR ON THE WAY FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
FROM...YOU GUESSED IT...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM THAT WILL
/AT LEAST TEMPORARILY/ PUT A STOP TO WHAT HAS BEEN A LONG PERIOD OF
WEAK /AND FRANKLY DISAPPOINTING FOR SNOW LOVERS/ CLIPPERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY MILD PATTERN TO A
COLDER REGIME...ENDING THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR
TO THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SERIES OF STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LATE THIS WEEK AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK CLIPPER ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS WILL DESCEND OVER THE
MIDWEST LEADING TO VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS APPROACHING THE
COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY IN THE MID -20S C /COMPARED TO 00Z
TODAY WHEN THEY WERE IN THE WARMEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMO AT AROUND
0C/.
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS. GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH ECMWF PESSIMISTIC ON INTENSITY AND
GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. GEM WAS SLOWER
AND NOT AS INTENSE OVERALL...BUT THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
12Z GEM WHICH WAS FASTER AND MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON PRECIP. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OR TWO FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA NORTH
OF HIGHWAY TWO. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE
SEVEN DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH 850MB AND GREAT NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE LAKE. ICE COVERAGE ON THE SOUTH SHORE MAY LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...AND OPTED TO LEAVE NORTHERN
BAYFIELD COUNTY OUT OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DUE
TO WHAT WOULD BE A VERY LIMITED FETCH LENGTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR AS NAM/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A NEAR-SURFACE DRY
LAYER...SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE LOW LEVELS AND THUS LIMIT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.
TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...AND HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS A LITTLE COLDER THAN INITIAL GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE ARCTIC HIGHS THAT WILL BE OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA IN THE
LONG TERM. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ON SATURDAY...THEN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE TEENS
TUESDAY. LOWS NEAR ZERO TO TEN OR MORE BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...MILD FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS...THEN 0 TO
-15 SATURDAY NIGHT AND 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO...AND COLD SPOTS IN THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION NEAR 40 BELOW ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AS OF THIS MORNING
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR INL WERE ALREADY AT IFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INL CEILINGS EXPECTED TO WORSEN LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME SITES POSSIBLY
DETERIORATING TO LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WHICH WILL IMPROVE
CONDITIONS...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO BECOME 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF
THE WEST WITH GUSTS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 30 KTS AT TIMES. DID NOT
INCLUDE STRONG WINDS IN ALL TAFS SINCE TIMING WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 31 24 24 -1 / 10 50 10 0
INL 31 16 16 -10 / 10 60 10 0
BRD 34 22 22 5 / 10 40 0 0
HYR 32 27 28 -2 / 10 50 20 0
ASX 34 27 29 2 / 10 50 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
654 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE
REPORTING. SHOULD SEE THE FOG LIFT BY 15Z. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
LOW PRESSURE WAS ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS AT 08Z WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO NW
ONTARIO. IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS
FALLING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR
THE FRONT FROM WINNIPEG TO NEAR DRYDEN. LATEST SHORT TERM HRRR AND
RAP KEEP THIS FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE ARROWHEAD IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY END BY NOON. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SFC LOW MOVES EASTWARD WITH THE LOW CENTER
BEGINS TO REORGANIZE AND DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO REVEL THEMSELVES WITH RESPECT
TO QPF PLACEMENT AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LIMITED QPF AND KEEPS IT NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND KEPT POPS TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE ALL SNOW. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING THE
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND HAVE REMOVED.
TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND THEIR TIMING ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE SNOW ENDING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL
SNOW AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
SLEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH FOUND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
ON THURSDAY...ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER
AS MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AS
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A NW
WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND CAA WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH SHORE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT HOWEVER AS DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
MUCH COLDER AIR ON THE WAY FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
FROM...YOU GUESSED IT...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM THAT WILL
/AT LEAST TEMPORARILY/ PUT A STOP TO WHAT HAS BEEN A LONG PERIOD OF
WEAK /AND FRANKLY DISAPPOINTING FOR SNOW LOVERS/ CLIPPERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY MILD PATTERN TO A
COLDER REGIME...ENDING THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR
TO THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SERIES OF STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LATE THIS WEEK AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK CLIPPER ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS WILL DESCEND OVER THE
MIDWEST LEADING TO VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS APPROACHING THE
COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY IN THE MID -20S C /COMPARED TO 00Z
TODAY WHEN THEY WERE IN THE WARMEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMO AT AROUND
0C/.
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS. GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH ECMWF PESSIMISTIC ON INTENSITY AND
GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. GEM WAS SLOWER
AND NOT AS INTENSE OVERALL...BUT THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
12Z GEM WHICH WAS FASTER AND MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON PRECIP. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OR TWO FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA NORTH
OF HIGHWAY TWO. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE
SEVEN DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH 850MB AND GREAT NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE LAKE. ICE COVERAGE ON THE SOUTH SHORE MAY LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...AND OPTED TO LEAVE NORTHERN
BAYFIELD COUNTY OUT OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DUE
TO WHAT WOULD BE A VERY LIMITED FETCH LENGTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR AS NAM/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A NEAR-SURFACE DRY
LAYER...SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE LOW LEVELS AND THUS LIMIT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.
TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...AND HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS A LITTLE COLDER THAN INITIAL GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE ARCTIC HIGHS THAT WILL BE OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA IN THE
LONG TERM. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ON SATURDAY...THEN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE TEENS
TUESDAY. LOWS NEAR ZERO TO TEN OR MORE BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...MILD FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS...THEN 0 TO
-15 SATURDAY NIGHT AND 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO...AND COLD SPOTS IN THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION NEAR 40 BELOW ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AS OF THIS MORNING
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR INL WERE ALREADY AT IFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INL CEILINGS EXPECTED TO WORSEN LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME SITES POSSIBLY
DETERIORATING TO LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WHICH WILL IMPROVE
CONDITIONS...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO BECOME 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF
THE WEST WITH GUSTS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 30 KTS AT TIMES. DID NOT
INCLUDE STRONG WINDS IN ALL TAFS SINCE TIMING WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 31 24 24 -1 / 10 50 10 0
INL 32 16 16 -10 / 30 60 10 0
BRD 34 22 22 5 / 10 40 0 0
HYR 33 27 27 -2 / 10 50 20 0
ASX 34 27 27 2 / 10 50 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
526 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
LOW PRESSURE WAS ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS AT 08Z WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO NW
ONTARIO. IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS
FALLING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR
THE FRONT FROM WINNIPEG TO NEAR DRYDEN. LATEST SHORT TERM HRRR AND
RAP KEEP THIS FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE ARROWHEAD IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY END BY NOON. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SFC LOW MOVES EASTWARD WITH THE LOW CENTER
BEGINS TO REORGANIZE AND DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO REVEL THEMSELVES WITH RESPECT
TO QPF PLACEMENT AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LIMITED QPF AND KEEPS IT NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND KEPT POPS TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE ALL SNOW. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING THE
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND HAVE REMOVED.
TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND THEIR TIMING ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE SNOW ENDING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL
SNOW AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
SLEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH FOUND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
ON THURSDAY...ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER
AS MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AS
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A NW
WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND CAA WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH SHORE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT HOWEVER AS DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
MUCH COLDER AIR ON THE WAY FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
FROM...YOU GUESSED IT...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM THAT WILL
/AT LEAST TEMPORARILY/ PUT A STOP TO WHAT HAS BEEN A LONG PERIOD OF
WEAK /AND FRANKLY DISAPPOINTING FOR SNOW LOVERS/ CLIPPERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY MILD PATTERN TO A
COLDER REGIME...ENDING THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR
TO THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SERIES OF STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LATE THIS WEEK AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK CLIPPER ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS WILL DESCEND OVER THE
MIDWEST LEADING TO VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS APPROACHING THE
COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY IN THE MID -20S C /COMPARED TO 00Z
TODAY WHEN THEY WERE IN THE WARMEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMO AT AROUND
0C/.
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS. GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH ECMWF PESSIMISTIC ON INTENSITY AND
GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. GEM WAS SLOWER
AND NOT AS INTENSE OVERALL...BUT THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
12Z GEM WHICH WAS FASTER AND MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON PRECIP. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OR TWO FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA NORTH
OF HIGHWAY TWO. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE
SEVEN DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH 850MB AND GREAT NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE LAKE. ICE COVERAGE ON THE SOUTH SHORE MAY LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...AND OPTED TO LEAVE NORTHERN
BAYFIELD COUNTY OUT OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DUE
TO WHAT WOULD BE A VERY LIMITED FETCH LENGTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR AS NAM/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A NEAR-SURFACE DRY
LAYER...SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE LOW LEVELS AND THUS LIMIT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.
TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...AND HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS A LITTLE COLDER THAN INITIAL GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE ARCTIC HIGHS THAT WILL BE OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA IN THE
LONG TERM. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ON SATURDAY...THEN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE TEENS
TUESDAY. LOWS NEAR ZERO TO TEN OR MORE BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...MILD FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS...THEN 0 TO
-15 SATURDAY NIGHT AND 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO...AND COLD SPOTS IN THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION NEAR 40 BELOW ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AS OF THIS MORNING
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR INL WERE ALREADY AT IFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INL CEILINGS EXPECTED TO WORSEN LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME SITES POSSIBLY
DETERIORATING TO LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WHICH WILL IMPROVE
CONDITIONS...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO BECOME 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF
THE WEST WITH GUSTS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 30 KTS AT TIMES. DID NOT
INCLUDE STRONG WINDS IN ALL TAFS SINCE TIMING WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 31 24 24 -1 / 10 50 10 0
INL 32 16 16 -10 / 30 60 10 0
BRD 34 22 22 5 / 10 40 0 0
HYR 33 27 27 -2 / 10 50 20 0
ASX 34 27 27 2 / 10 50 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
LOW PRESSURE WAS ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS AT 08Z WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO NW
ONTARIO. IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS
FALLING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR
THE FRONT FROM WINNIPEG TO NEAR DRYDEN. LATEST SHORT TERM HRRR AND
RAP KEEP THIS FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE ARROWHEAD IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY END BY NOON. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SFC LOW MOVES EASTWARD WITH THE LOW CENTER
BEGINS TO REORGANIZE AND DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO REVEL THEMSELVES WITH RESPECT
TO QPF PLACEMENT AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LIMITED QPF AND KEEPS IT NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND KEPT POPS TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE ALL SNOW. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING THE
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND HAVE REMOVED.
TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND THEIR TIMING ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE SNOW ENDING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL
SNOW AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
SLEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH FOUND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
ON THURSDAY...ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER
AS MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AS
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A NW
WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND CAA WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH SHORE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT HOWEVER AS DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
MUCH COLDER AIR ON THE WAY FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
FROM...YOU GUESSED IT...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM THAT WILL
/AT LEAST TEMPORARILY/ PUT A STOP TO WHAT HAS BEEN A LONG PERIOD OF
WEAK /AND FRANKLY DISAPPOINTING FOR SNOW LOVERS/ CLIPPERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY MILD PATTERN TO A
COLDER REGIME...ENDING THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR
TO THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SERIES OF STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LATE THIS WEEK AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK CLIPPER ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS WILL DESCEND OVER THE
MIDWEST LEADING TO VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS APPROACHING THE
COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY IN THE MID -20S C /COMPARED TO 00Z
TODAY WHEN THEY WERE IN THE WARMEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMO AT AROUND
0C/.
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS. GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH ECMWF PESSIMISTIC ON INTENSITY AND
GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. GEM WAS SLOWER
AND NOT AS INTENSE OVERALL...BUT THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
12Z GEM WHICH WAS FASTER AND MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON PRECIP. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OR TWO FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA NORTH
OF HIGHWAY TWO. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE
SEVEN DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH 850MB AND GREAT NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE LAKE. ICE COVERAGE ON THE SOUTH SHORE MAY LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...AND OPTED TO LEAVE NORTHERN
BAYFIELD COUNTY OUT OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DUE
TO WHAT WOULD BE A VERY LIMITED FETCH LENGTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR AS NAM/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A NEAR-SURFACE DRY
LAYER...SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE LOW LEVELS AND THUS LIMIT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.
TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...AND HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS A LITTLE COLDER THAN INITIAL GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE ARCTIC HIGHS THAT WILL BE OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA IN THE
LONG TERM. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ON SATURDAY...THEN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE TEENS
TUESDAY. LOWS NEAR ZERO TO TEN OR MORE BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...MILD FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS...THEN 0 TO
-15 SATURDAY NIGHT AND 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO...AND COLD SPOTS IN THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION NEAR 40 BELOW ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
MVFR CEILINGS WERE ADVANCING NORTH THROUGH KFOZ HEADING TOWARD
KINL. AN AREA OF VFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXTENDED FROM KINL THROUGH
KTWM INTO KHYR. THE RAP SHOWS VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FOR A TIME TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
LOWER ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WAA STRENGTHENS AGAIN. THE FGEN
BAND OF SNOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA HAS DIMINISHED THIS
EVENING AND WE EXPECT SOME SPOTTY SNOW OVERNIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...WE LIMITED THE MENTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME SUGGESTS THE COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 31 24 24 -1 / 10 50 10 0
INL 32 16 16 -10 / 30 60 10 0
BRD 34 22 22 5 / 10 40 0 0
HYR 33 27 27 -2 / 10 50 20 0
ASX 34 27 27 2 / 10 50 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1141 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
AN AREA OF FGEN OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA HAS LED TO NARROW
BANDS OF SNOW...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH OF SNOW OVER A NARROW AREA. WE INCREASED POPS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS THE BANDS
MOVE EAST AND NORTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
WE UPDATED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE
THERE. FURTHER SOUTH...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR PRESENT
IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS WHICH WILL LEAD TO A LESSER CHANCE FOR SNOW
OR JUST SOME FLURRIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND THE NEXT SHOT OF A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT. A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE...AND
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED FROM WRN QUEBEC INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS FURTHER
TO THE E/SE. ON THE WRN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE THERE IS AN AREA OF
FAIRLY STRONG WAA OVER THE NRN PLAINS. INDICATIVE OF THIS WARM
AIR ARE THE UPPER 60 AND LOWER 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN WRN SOUTH
DAKOTA. CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS PLEASANT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH
MUCH OF THE REGION ENSHROUDED IN CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. STILL NOT TOO BAD FOR LATE JANUARY.
THE DOME OF WARM AIR OVER THE PLAINS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE NEXT UPPER S/W
AND SFC LOW MOVE IN FROM THE NW. A WEAK LEAD WAVE...AHEAD OF THE
MAIN TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH WRN ONTARIO AND BRUSH PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND BORDERLAND REGION WITH LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY LIGHT SNOW AMTS ARE EXPECTED.
THE BRUNT NEXT WINTER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO N-CENTRAL MN
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE...THAT WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...A COLDER AIR MASS WILL
AS WELL. BUT NOT BEFORE THE WEDGE OF WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
CAN ALTER THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE PARALLEL TO HIGHWAY 2. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP...NAMELY HEAVY SNOW...WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND
ALONG A AREA OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL F-GEN. HOWEVER...NE MN AND NW
WI WILL SEE LIGHTER PRECIP...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO CAUSE POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL/ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WED AND WED NIGHT.
COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD...AND LIGHT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FROM WASKISH TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO
NW WI. ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND EARLY THURSDAY
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
ENSURE THAT THE CAA RESULTS IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
DAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MORNING. THE NAM12 AND GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A MIXING LAYER PACKING QUITE A BIT OF
NORTHERLY WIND. NOT SURE IF THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO DRAW DOWN THE 35 TO 40 KNOTS OF WIND THOSE SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING IN THE MIXING LAYER...BUT SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING THE
SUSTAINED WIND AND WIND GUST FORECAST OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
SEEMED WARRANTED. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST WIDESPREAD NNW WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE SNOW
FLURRIES AND LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW...PRIMARILY IN NW WISCONSIN DUE
TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. OVERALL...THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A BLUSTERY DAY
WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO OUR RECENT RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER
COULD PROMOTE THE OPPOSITE. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE NW TO WNW WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHT...DESPITE THE SURFACE
WINDS BECOMING VERY LIGHT. THE NW WINDS ALOFT COULD MAINTAIN THE
CLOUD COVER. NONETHELESS...LOWERED THE THURSDAY NIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES BASED ON A WIDE BLEND. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR UP
TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH
PRESSURE AND IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER IN SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA. THE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER 15 TO 20 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW
TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHERN FA APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING THIS DUSTING.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD N TO NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE CLIPPER AND ITS COLD FRONT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COOLING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES MIGHT FLIRT WITH READINGS OF -20 DEGREES OR COLDER AT
NIGHT...BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE SNOWBELT REGION OF
NW WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY GET LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY DUE TO THE COLD NW FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
MVFR CEILINGS WERE ADVANCING NORTH THROUGH KFOZ HEADING TOWARD
KINL. AN AREA OF VFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXTENDED FROM KINL THROUGH
KTWM INTO KHYR. THE RAP SHOWS VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FOR A TIME TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
LOWER ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WAA STRENGTHENS AGAIN. THE FGEN
BAND OF SNOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA HAS DIMINISHED THIS
EVENING AND WE EXPECT SOME SPOTTY SNOW OVERNIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...WE LIMITED THE MENTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME SUGGESTS THE COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 25 33 23 24 / 30 30 50 10
INL 27 32 14 16 / 60 30 60 10
BRD 27 34 21 22 / 10 20 40 0
HYR 24 34 27 27 / 10 10 50 20
ASX 25 36 27 28 / 30 10 50 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
838 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
WE WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. WEAK SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR A BARELY
NOTICEABLE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN A SHIFT TO MORE
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR EAST BY EARLY TOMORROW...AND SOME DEGREE
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A
FOG RISK ACROSS OUR EAST. THE HRRR AGREES...SO HAVE ADJUSTED EARLY
FRIDAY WX GRID TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE SOME EASTERN
VALLEYS ARE ALREADY NEAR FORECAST LOWS SO HAVE TWEAKED THESE DOWN
A BIT. OVERALL VERY QUIET WX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS WE AWAIT A
PATTERN SHIFT THIS WEEKEND. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...
JUST ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER BEFORE WE
TRANSITION BACK TO A COLDER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. FOR
THIS PACKAGE I HAVE RAISED POPS QUITE A BIT FOR SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THAT TIME
FRAME. THE FACT THE MODELS ALL HAVE A JET NOSING ACROSS OUR REGION
COMBINED WITH THE SIGNALS ON THE CROSS SECTIONS MAKES ME THINK
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BANDING OF PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS IF AND HOW DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW
MAKES IT INTO RED LODGE AND THE OTHER FOOTHILL LOCATIONS. MODELS
ARE TENDING TO KEEP THE FLOW NORTHWESTERLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
NOT HIT THEM TOO HARD. THIS STRICT DEMARCATION IS PROBABLY DUE TO
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET ORIENTED NW TO SE DIRECTLY OVER
BILLINGS KEEPING THE COLD AIR MAINLY EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS. IF
THE JET POSITION TRENDS FURTHER SW THEN SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE
LIKELY AND HEAVIER IN THE FOOTHILLS. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS AND QPF
A BIT LOWER IN THE FOOTHILLS THAN IN THE YELLOWSTONE COUNTY AREA.
THAT SAID...IT STILL DOES NOT LOOK RIGHT NOW TO WARRANT ANY
HIGHLIGHTS BASED ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR
TWO SNOWFALL IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. HOWEVER...THE ONE IMPACT
THAT DOES CONCERN ME IS THE FACT WE WILL HAVE WARM ROAD TEMPS YET
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM...AND TEMPS MAY PLUMMET
QUICKLY RESULTING IN ICY ROAD CONDITIONS. SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ADVISORY YET FOR BILLINGS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. WE WILL ANALYZE
THIS MORE CLOSELY TOMORROW WHILE BEGINNING TO ADVERTISE THIS
POSSIBILITY IN OTHER PRODUCTS SUCH AS OUR WEBSITE WEATHER STORY
AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
MADE SOME LARGE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A COLDER AND WETTER PERIOD. NW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WED. CHANNELED VORTICITY WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA ON SUN TAKING PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THE NEXT SURGE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS. A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT BRINGING MORE
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. HAVE RAISED MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD. THE WAVE WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA DURING MON AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.
ON MON NIGHT...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF A
SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW WHICH WILL REINFORCE COLD
AIR OVER THE AREA AND FORM A STRONG WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHWARD
MOVING FRONT. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM AND THE
FLOW WILL TURN UPSLOPE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THE HUDSON BAY SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION
TUE AND TUE NIGHT CONTINUING A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE AREA
FOR TUE...BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT.
HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND
HAD LIKELY POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. NOTE THAT THE
TIMING OF THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
AS THE MODELS NOTORIOUSLY HAVE DIFFICULTY IN THE TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW.
TAPERED OFF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUE NIGHT...THEN WENT MOSTLY
DRY FOR WED INTO THU AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE ON THE GFS ON THU WHILE THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS AN UPPER RIDGE. BOTH MODELS WARMED UP THE AIRMASS
CONSIDERABLY ON THU.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUN UNDER THE CONTINUED COLD AIRMASS FROM SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CHALLENGING ON MON WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A WARM START BEFORE
COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE FOR WED INTO THU. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING AND THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/050 027/039 019/032 028/045 021/023 009/027 021/043
00/B 02/W 63/J 43/W 66/S 21/B 11/N
LVM 027/049 024/044 020/037 031/047 025/027 017/035 027/046
00/B 01/B 43/W 43/W 66/S 21/B 22/W
HDN 026/047 022/037 015/030 022/043 017/019 007/025 012/040
00/B 02/W 42/J 43/W 56/S 21/B 01/B
MLS 027/044 023/032 011/025 019/035 013/015 902/018 006/038
00/U 05/J 32/J 33/J 54/S 21/B 01/B
4BQ 025/049 023/039 015/028 023/043 019/021 006/023 012/042
00/U 02/W 32/J 33/W 34/S 21/B 01/B
BHK 025/043 020/027 007/021 014/033 011/013 905/014 004/032
00/U 15/J 42/J 23/J 44/S 11/B 11/B
SHR 022/045 018/039 015/029 022/044 018/020 006/028 015/041
00/B 01/B 32/J 22/W 35/S 21/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
835 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES
THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON...SANS THE FOG. TEMPS LOOK TO BE TOO HIGH SO
LOWERED THEM. PRECIP IN THE NE ZONES LOOK LIGHT. FOG WILL PROBABLY
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. DOT CAMERAS EAST OF SCOBEY SHOWING
DENSE IN PLACES. TFJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPLIT TROUGH TEMPORARILY KNOCKED DOWN THE RIDGE LAST NIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN SHORT-WAVE FEATURE WILL SEND MOISTURE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND WYOMING TODAY...WHILE THE NORTHERN WAVE SENDS MOISTURE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL BE A COLD FRONT SENT SOUTH OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY. THE NAM AND GFS FRONTAL TIMING ARE DIFFERENT INDICATING
SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE RAP HAS PICKED THE MIDDLE GROUND...SO EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AROUND LATE
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COOLER THAN WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED FOR A WHILE...SO HIGHS WILL TREND LOWER THAN TUESDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL DEVELOP BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY...IN THE 20KT RANGE. WITH
INCREASED MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT TOWARD THE SURFACE...ALSO
EXPECT GUSTS TO 30KT. BY AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD BE WELL INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. LIMITED OVERRUNNING MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE
FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IN THE MORNING AND RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN ZONES.
TONIGHT...THE COLD BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN SETS UP NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA. THE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL CREATE LOW STRATUS OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES...AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE LIGHT INTERMITTENT
PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING. INCREASING HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL DIMINISH NW WIND SIGNIFICANTLY.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WANDERS AROUND JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR
AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 0C WHICH WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH
EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BUT UNTIL THE STATIONARY FRONT
DROPS SOUTH AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL BY
AROUND 15F-20F. SCT
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HANGS OVER PACIFIC NORTHEAST
REGION THROUGHOUT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD AS UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW DEEPENS LATER
IN THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH BEST CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH PERIOD. BRITTON
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR.
CIGS AND VSBY: MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW
CLOUDS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS
BEEN OBSERVED ON THE RIDGE TOPS. VALLEY AIRPORTS SHOULD ESCAPE
MUCH OF THE FOG.
WIND: WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE NW. TFJ
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
521 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A SPLIT TROUGH TEMPORARILY KNOCKED DOWN THE RIDGE LAST NIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN SHORT-WAVE FEATURE WILL SEND MOISTURE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND WYOMING TODAY...WHILE THE NORTHERN WAVE SENDS MOISTURE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL BE A COLD FRONT SENT SOUTH OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY. THE NAM AND GFS FRONTAL TIMING ARE DIFFERENT INDICATING
SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE RAP HAS PICKED THE MIDDLE GROUND...SO EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AROUND LATE
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COOLER THAN WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED FOR A WHILE...SO HIGHS WILL TREND LOWER THAN TUESDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL DEVELOP BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY...IN THE 20KT RANGE. WITH
INCREASED MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT TOWARD THE SURFACE...ALSO
EXPECT GUSTS TO 30KT. BY AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD BE WELL INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. LIMITED OVERRUNNING MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE
FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IN THE MORNING AND RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN ZONES.
TONIGHT...THE COLD BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN SETS UP NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA. THE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL CREATE LOW STRATUS OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES...AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE LIGHT INTERMITTENT
PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING. INCREASING HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL DIMINISH NW WIND SIGNIFICANTLY.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WANDERS AROUND JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR
AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 0C WHICH WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH
EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BUT UNTIL THE STATIONARY FRONT
DROPS SOUTH AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL BY
AROUND 15F-20F. SCT
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HANGS OVER PACIFIC NORTHEAST
REGION THROUGHOUT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD AS UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW DEEPENS LATER
IN THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH BEST CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH PERIOD. BRITTON
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS.
CIGS AND VSBY: VFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD.
WIND: WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
BRITTON
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO THE RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES SOME OF THE CREEKS AND SMALL
STREAMS HAVE BEGUN TO RUN. MINOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED AT 7 MILE
CREEK NEAR GLENDIVE WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL STREAM
FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT ANY FURTHER FLOODING.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
307 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A SPLIT TROUGH TEMPORARILY KNOCKED DOWN THE RIDGE LAST NIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN SHORT-WAVE FEATURE WILL SEND MOISTURE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND WYOMING TODAY...WHILE THE NORTHERN WAVE SENDS MOISTURE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL BE A COLD FRONT SENT SOUTH OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY. THE NAM AND GFS FRONTAL TIMING ARE DIFFERENT INDICATING
SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE RAP HAS PICKED THE MIDDLE GROUND...SO EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AROUND LATE
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COOLER THAN WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED FOR A WHILE...SO HIGHS WILL TREND LOWER THAN TUESDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL DEVELOP BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY...IN THE 20KT RANGE. WITH
INCREASED MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT TOWARD THE SURFACE...ALSO
EXPECT GUSTS TO 30KT. BY AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD BE WELL INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. LIMITED OVERRUNNING MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE
FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IN THE MORNING AND RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN ZONES.
TONIGHT...THE COLD BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN SETS UP NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA. THE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL CREATE LOW STRATUS OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES...AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE LIGHT INTERMITTENT
PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING. INCREASING HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL DIMINISH NW WIND SIGNIFICANTLY.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WANDERS AROUND JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR
AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 0C WHICH WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH
EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BUT UNTIL THE STATIONARY FRONT
DROPS SOUTH AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL BY
AROUND 15F-20F. SCT
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HANGS OVER PACIFIC NORTHEAST
REGION THROUGHOUT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD AS UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW DEEPENS LATER
IN THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH BEST CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH PERIOD. BRITTON
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW HIGH CHINOOK ARCH CLOUDS.
THEN AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA
AFTER 00Z.
CIGS AND VSBY: VFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z THEN A
CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN 1/3RD FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.
WIND: LIGHT WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
PROTON
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO THE RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES SOME OF THE CREEKS AND SMALL
STREAMS HAVE BEGUN TO RUN. MINOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED AT 7 MILE
CREEK NEAR GLENDIVE WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL STREAM
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT ANY FURTHER FLOODING.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
542 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
IN THIS PERIOD. MODELS HAVE SETTLED SOMEWHAT AND NOW SUGGEST AT
LEAST OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD GET SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.
TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH NORTH
WINDS DECREASING AND EVEN SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WAS STILL RATHER EXTENSIVE AT 3 PM
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81. EXPECT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS AT LEAST ON THE WESTERN EDGE. LATEST RUNS OF
THE RAP AND NAM SUGGEST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER BASED ON 925 MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS. IF CLOUDS CAN AT LEAST SCATTER OUT LATER
TONIGHT AS EXPECTED...WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ON FRIDAY. WINDS MAY GET INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE 40S.
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SINKING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME COOLER
AIR THERE...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH SHOULD STAY MOSTLY NEAR
OR ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WOULD BE ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THAT PERIOD. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLDER AIR. IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CAN DROP BELOW FREEZING...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN.
BEST DYNAMICS WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA SATURDAY...BUT USING A
COMBINATION OF RECENT RUNS OF THE SREF...GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTS
THAT AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA WILL SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SEEMED TO COLD AND THUS SEEMED TO
PRODUCE TOO MUCH SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
DARKNESS SETS IN...PCPN SHOULD TREND TOWARD ALL SNOW. A MODEST
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD TRACK OVER OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY
IN THE EVENING. DETAILS ON PCPN TYPE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR ACTUAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME.
IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY LIFT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN CASE THE SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A BIT. CURRENT THINKING ON POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS...
AND THE KEY WORD IS POTENTIAL...IS FOR AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN TO OMAHA...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 3 TO 4 INCHES NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. THESE WOULD BE
TOTAL AMOUNTS FOR THE WHOLE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
FOR SUNDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
A BRIEF AND SMALL WARMUP MAY OCCUR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH...BUT IN GENERAL THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HAVE GONE WITH
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BEST POTENTIAL IS DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. AMOUNTS WOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS THE WAY THINGS LOOK
RIGHT NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
MVFR/VFR LOW CLOUDS ARE HUGGING THE MISSOURI RIVER AND THE RAP
MAINTAINS THIS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC...SO
WILL MAINTAIN SCT-BKN FL035 AT KOMA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING
AND MONITOR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLACKEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1100 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
BEEN ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...THANKS TO AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN STEADILY MAKING ITS WAY
EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS...PUSHED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WY. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN OVER
THE CWA IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE...WITH A TROUGH AXIS SET
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE
WINDS. TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING AT 3 AM RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO MID 40S IN THE FAR SWRN CORNER OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LIES WITH THAT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO WY THIS MORNING...AND THE
ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...SHOWING IT MOVING INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE NEAR MIDDAY
TODAY...BY 00Z THIS EVENING THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO BE EXTENDING
THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA...BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE MISSOURI
RIVER AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A WEAKER SECOND MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE MAIN ONE IS FORECAST TO BE
WORKING INTO THE AREA AS WE GET INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THERE ACTUALLY BEING A SYSTEM TO TALK
ABOUT...MODELS /INCLUDING THE MORE SHORT TERM HIRES LIKE THE WRF/
OVERALL CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING CONDITIONS
REMAINING DRY...JUST NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THAT
BEING SAID...SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL OF SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP FALLING THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT KEEP THAT SIGNAL
JUST OUTSIDE THE N/NERN BORDERS OF THE CWA. WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
THE DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR WITH THE 12Z RUN OF MODELS THIS MORNING.
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THIS
MORNING...BEFORE THE WIND SHIFT OF THE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING
THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH MODELS SHOW PUSHING
ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA BY MID MORNING AND MAKING IT TO THE
ERN FRINGE OF THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN A PUSH OF
GUSTY W/NWRLY WINDS /15 TO 25 MPH IS FORECAST/...BUT THE MAIN PUSH
OF COLDER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND. TEMPS ALOFT COOL A TOUCH DURING
THE DAY...BUT HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE...THANKS TO THE MILD AIR/DOWNSLOPING WINDS. NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS WARM AS TUESDAY...BUT TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV AND
RAP /WHICH DID PRETTY WELL TUESDAY/...WHICH PUTS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA AT LEAST INTO THE MID 60S /THE EXCEPTION AGAIN IS THE
E/NERN PORTIONS/...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 FORECAST IN NC KS. IF TEMPS
PAN OUT AS FORECAST...IT WOULD SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS IN
GRAND ISLAND. BUT CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...AS THERE ARE
MODELS THAT SAY IT WILL FALL SHORT OF/MAYBE TIE THE RECORD OF 63
DEGREES. THE RECORD AT HASTINGS IS 69 DEGREES...AND THE RAP IS
BASICALLY THE ONLY ONE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO MAKE A
RUN AT THAT RECORD. FIRE WX CONCERNS ARISE AGAIN...SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...ONE MIGHT THINK THAT WINDS WE HAVE THIS
AFTERNOON WOULD TAPER OFF...BUT WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...BETTER PRESSURE RISES/TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO TAP INTO...THATS NOT THE CASE. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND SPEEDS...WHICH WILL BE ON A SECOND INCREASE
THIS EVENING...AND BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SPEEDS IN THE 25 TO 30
MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SC NEB COUNTIES.
LOOKS TO REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL BE NOTED
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY...THUS HELPING PROVIDE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
PROMOTES QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA AS WE HEAD
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL KEEP US DRY
THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...AND SUCH
HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY...SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PERHAPS EARLY SUNDAY...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...INCLUDING OUR CWA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BY SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...AGAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THEN CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST...ALONG THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH AXIS...AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT THE NAM...WHICH THROUGH 84 HOURS IS JUST NOW UP TO
12Z SATURDAY...APPEARS TO KEEP THE PRIMARY AXIS OF OMEGA WELL TO
OUR SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT...KEEPS US DRY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE NAM UNFOLDS
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW RUNS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA FROM
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO PRESENT YET
ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND 30-60% POPS ARE NOW
SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RELEGATED
TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHICH IS WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST
OMEGA AND MOST EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL RESIDE
DURING THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM.
ONCE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END ON SUNDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OBSERVED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION COULD START OUT AS RAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR SNOWFALL AT THE SURFACE BY 12Z SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THAT SAID...WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY- LAYER WIND FIELD EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL AT LEAST AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY NEAR THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
SUPERBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS FROM MULTIPLE SETS OF GUIDANCE
THAT THIS TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS TOO HIGH AND NEEDS
TO BE REDUCED BY 4-5 DEGREES. WENT AHEAD WITH A ~2 DEGREE DECREASE
FROM THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY HIGHS TO ACCOUNT OF
THIS...BUT EVEN NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SATURDAY
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND GIVEN
THIS...DESPITE FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND EC SUGGESTING SNOWFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...FIND IT HARD TO JUSTIFY AN ALL-SNOW
FORECAST WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE READINGS SO HIGH. AS A
RESULT...OPTED TO GO WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH ALL SNOW THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS DIABATIC HEATING IS LOST AND A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
CLEARS THE AREA. OBVIOUSLY THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS ANY MORE OF A DECREASE IN
SATURDAYS TEMPERATURE FORECAST WOULD SUGGEST MORE SNOW THAN RAIN
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
OBVIOUSLY STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH SNOWFALL IS REALIZED DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND RESULTANT SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...IT STILL REMAINS TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC ON SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THAT SAID...ONCE AGAIN TAKING
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC AT FACE VALUE SUGGESTS ADVISORY-WORTHY
ACCUMULATION OF ~3 INCHES COULD BE REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONE...DESPITE WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE IS NOW
SUGGESTING THAT AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT POST-FROPA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL PROMOTE A STRONG WIND...SUSTAINED
AT AROUND 18KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WIND...WORKING IN CONCERT
WITH THE SNOWFALL...WOULD LIKELY CREATE AT LEAST PERIODIC
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN BLOWING SNOW. SO...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
WE NOW HAVE "LIKELY" POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND...AND THE FACT THAT IT NOW APPEARS WE HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...FEEL IT
PRUDENT TO INTRODUCE A MENTION OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND IN THE
HWO.
FINALLY...HIGHS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S...BUT WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S POST-FROPA STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO START THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THESE READINGS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AXIS THIS
AFTN...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT IN A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN AN EXITING SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 40KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE JUST BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
GUSTY W/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE
AGAIN FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE WITH THOSE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIE ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LEXINGTON NEB TO BELOIT KS LINE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
YET ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TODAY. AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE MAINLY IN THE MID
30S...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TODAY TO REACH INTO THE 60S /NEAR 70
POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN LOCATIONS/. HERE IS THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE INFORMATION FOR TODAY...WITH GRAND ISLAND CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BREAK THAT RECORD...BUT HASTINGS FORECAST TO FALL A
BIT SHORT.
GRAND ISLAND: RECORD IS 63 DEGREES IN 1986. FORECAST HIGH: 65
HASTINGS: RECORD IS 69 DEGREES IN 1931. FORECAST HIGH: 65
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY
FIRE WEATHER...ADP
CLIMATE...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
540 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
BEEN ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...THANKS TO AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN STEADILY MAKING ITS WAY
EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS...PUSHED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WY. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN OVER
THE CWA IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE...WITH A TROUGH AXIS SET
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE
WINDS. TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING AT 3 AM RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO MID 40S IN THE FAR SWRN CORNER OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LIES WITH THAT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO WY THIS MORNING...AND THE
ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...SHOWING IT MOVING INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE NEAR MIDDAY
TODAY...BY 00Z THIS EVENING THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO BE EXTENDING
THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA...BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE MISSOURI
RIVER AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A WEAKER SECOND MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE MAIN ONE IS FORECAST TO BE
WORKING INTO THE AREA AS WE GET INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THERE ACTUALLY BEING A SYSTEM TO TALK
ABOUT...MODELS /INCLUDING THE MORE SHORT TERM HIRES LIKE THE WRF/
OVERALL CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING CONDITIONS
REMAINING DRY...JUST NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THAT
BEING SAID...SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL OF SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP FALLING THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT KEEP THAT SIGNAL
JUST OUTSIDE THE N/NERN BORDERS OF THE CWA. WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
THE DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR WITH THE 12Z RUN OF MODELS THIS MORNING.
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THIS
MORNING...BEFORE THE WIND SHIFT OF THE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING
THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH MODELS SHOW PUSHING
ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA BY MID MORNING AND MAKING IT TO THE
ERN FRINGE OF THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN A PUSH OF
GUSTY W/NWRLY WINDS /15 TO 25 MPH IS FORECAST/...BUT THE MAIN PUSH
OF COLDER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND. TEMPS ALOFT COOL A TOUCH DURING
THE DAY...BUT HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE...THANKS TO THE MILD AIR/DOWNSLOPING WINDS. NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS WARM AS TUESDAY...BUT TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV AND
RAP /WHICH DID PRETTY WELL TUESDAY/...WHICH PUTS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA AT LEAST INTO THE MID 60S /THE EXCEPTION AGAIN IS THE
E/NERN PORTIONS/...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 FORECAST IN NC KS. IF TEMPS
PAN OUT AS FORECAST...IT WOULD SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS IN
GRAND ISLAND. BUT CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...AS THERE ARE
MODELS THAT SAY IT WILL FALL SHORT OF/MAYBE TIE THE RECORD OF 63
DEGREES. THE RECORD AT HASTINGS IS 69 DEGREES...AND THE RAP IS
BASICALLY THE ONLY ONE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO MAKE A
RUN AT THAT RECORD. FIRE WX CONCERNS ARISE AGAIN...SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...ONE MIGHT THINK THAT WINDS WE HAVE THIS
AFTERNOON WOULD TAPER OFF...BUT WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...BETTER PRESSURE RISES/TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO TAP INTO...THATS NOT THE CASE. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND SPEEDS...WHICH WILL BE ON A SECOND INCREASE
THIS EVENING...AND BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SPEEDS IN THE 25 TO 30
MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SC NEB COUNTIES.
LOOKS TO REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL BE NOTED
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY...THUS HELPING PROVIDE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
PROMOTES QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA AS WE HEAD
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL KEEP US DRY
THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...AND SUCH
HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY...SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PERHAPS EARLY SUNDAY...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...INCLUDING OUR CWA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BY SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...AGAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THEN CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST...ALONG THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH AXIS...AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT THE NAM...WHICH THROUGH 84 HOURS IS JUST NOW UP TO
12Z SATURDAY...APPEARS TO KEEP THE PRIMARY AXIS OF OMEGA WELL TO
OUR SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT...KEEPS US DRY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE NAM UNFOLDS
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW RUNS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA FROM
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO PRESENT YET
ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND 30-60% POPS ARE NOW
SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RELEGATED
TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHICH IS WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST
OMEGA AND MOST EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL RESIDE
DURING THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM.
ONCE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END ON SUNDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OBSERVED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION COULD START OUT AS RAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR SNOWFALL AT THE SURFACE BY 12Z SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THAT SAID...WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY- LAYER WIND FIELD EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL AT LEAST AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY NEAR THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
SUPERBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS FROM MULTIPLE SETS OF GUIDANCE
THAT THIS TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS TOO HIGH AND NEEDS
TO BE REDUCED BY 4-5 DEGREES. WENT AHEAD WITH A ~2 DEGREE DECREASE
FROM THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY HIGHS TO ACCOUNT OF
THIS...BUT EVEN NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SATURDAY
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND GIVEN
THIS...DESPITE FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND EC SUGGESTING SNOWFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...FIND IT HARD TO JUSTIFY AN ALL-SNOW
FORECAST WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE READINGS SO HIGH. AS A
RESULT...OPTED TO GO WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH ALL SNOW THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS DIABATIC HEATING IS LOST AND A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
CLEARS THE AREA. OBVIOUSLY THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS ANY MORE OF A DECREASE IN
SATURDAYS TEMPERATURE FORECAST WOULD SUGGEST MORE SNOW THAN RAIN
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
OBVIOUSLY STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH SNOWFALL IS REALIZED DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND RESULTANT SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...IT STILL REMAINS TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC ON SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THAT SAID...ONCE AGAIN TAKING
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC AT FACE VALUE SUGGESTS ADVISORY-WORTHY
ACCUMULATION OF ~3 INCHES COULD BE REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONE...DESPITE WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE IS NOW
SUGGESTING THAT AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT POST-FROPA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL PROMOTE A STRONG WIND...SUSTAINED
AT AROUND 18KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WIND...WORKING IN CONCERT
WITH THE SNOWFALL...WOULD LIKELY CREATE AT LEAST PERIODIC
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN BLOWING SNOW. SO...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
WE NOW HAVE "LIKELY" POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND...AND THE FACT THAT IT NOW APPEARS WE HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...FEEL IT
PRUDENT TO INTRODUCE A MENTION OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND IN THE
HWO.
FINALLY...HIGHS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S...BUT WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S POST-FROPA STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO START THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THESE READINGS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES WITH WINDS. WINDS
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE SIDE EARLY THIS
MORNING THANKS TO A WEAKER SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE...AND AT LEAST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. DEBATED THROWING IN A
MENTION OF LLWS FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT MODELS KEEP THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINAL AREAS...SO KEPT OUT OF
THIS TAF. THIS MORNING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING EAST WILL
BRING MORE WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA...THEN BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND 25 TO 30 MPH
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CEILINGS ACCOMPANYING THE
COLDER AIR PUSH TONIGHT...SO INSERTED MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH
TERMINALS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
GUSTY W/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE
AGAIN FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE WITH THOSE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIE ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LEXINGTON NEB TO BELOIT KS LINE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
YET ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TODAY. AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE MAINLY IN THE MID
30S...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TODAY TO REACH INTO THE 60S /NEAR 70
POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN LOCATIONS/. HERE IS THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE INFORMATION FOR TODAY...WITH GRAND ISLAND CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BREAK THAT RECORD...BUT HASTINGS FORECAST TO FALL A
BIT SHORT.
GRAND ISLAND: RECORD IS 63 DEGREES IN 1986. FORECAST HIGH: 65
HASTINGS: RECORD IS 69 DEGREES IN 1931. FORECAST HIGH: 65
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP
FIRE WEATHER...ADP
CLIMATE...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
352 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
BEEN ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...THANKS TO AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN STEADILY MAKING ITS WAY
EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS...PUSHED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WY. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN OVER
THE CWA IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE...WITH A TROUGH AXIS SET
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE
WINDS. TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING AT 3 AM RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO MID 40S IN THE FAR SWRN CORNER OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LIES WITH THAT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO WY THIS MORNING...AND THE
ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...SHOWING IT MOVING INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE NEAR MIDDAY
TODAY...BY 00Z THIS EVENING THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO BE EXTENDING
THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA...BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE MISSOURI
RIVER AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A WEAKER SECOND MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE MAIN ONE IS FORECAST TO BE
WORKING INTO THE AREA AS WE GET INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THERE ACTUALLY BEING A SYSTEM TO TALK
ABOUT...MODELS /INCLUDING THE MORE SHORT TERM HIRES LIKE THE WRF/
OVERALL CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING CONDITIONS
REMAINING DRY...JUST NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THAT
BEING SAID...SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL OF SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP FALLING THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT KEEP THAT SIGNAL
JUST OUTSIDE THE N/NERN BORDERS OF THE CWA. WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
THE DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR WITH THE 12Z RUN OF MODELS THIS MORNING.
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THIS
MORNING...BEFORE THE WIND SHIFT OF THE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING
THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH MODELS SHOW PUSHING
ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA BY MID MORNING AND MAKING IT TO THE
ERN FRINGE OF THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN A PUSH OF
GUSTY W/NWRLY WINDS /15 TO 25 MPH IS FORECAST/...BUT THE MAIN PUSH
OF COLDER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND. TEMPS ALOFT COOL A TOUCH DURING
THE DAY...BUT HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE...THANKS TO THE MILD AIR/DOWNSLOPING WINDS. NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS WARM AS TUESDAY...BUT TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV AND
RAP /WHICH DID PRETTY WELL TUESDAY/...WHICH PUTS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA AT LEAST INTO THE MID 60S /THE EXCEPTION AGAIN IS THE
E/NERN PORTIONS/...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 FORECAST IN NC KS. IF TEMPS
PAN OUT AS FORECAST...IT WOULD SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS IN
GRAND ISLAND. BUT CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...AS THERE ARE
MODELS THAT SAY IT WILL FALL SHORT OF/MAYBE TIE THE RECORD OF 63
DEGREES. THE RECORD AT HASTINGS IS 69 DEGREES...AND THE RAP IS
BASICALLY THE ONLY ONE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO MAKE A
RUN AT THAT RECORD. FIRE WX CONCERNS ARISE AGAIN...SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...ONE MIGHT THINK THAT WINDS WE HAVE THIS
AFTERNOON WOULD TAPER OFF...BUT WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...BETTER PRESSURE RISES/TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO TAP INTO...THATS NOT THE CASE. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND SPEEDS...WHICH WILL BE ON A SECOND INCREASE
THIS EVENING...AND BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SPEEDS IN THE 25 TO 30
MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SC NEB COUNTIES.
LOOKS TO REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL BE NOTED
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY...THUS HELPING PROVIDE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
PROMOTES QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA AS WE HEAD
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL KEEP US DRY
THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...AND SUCH
HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY...SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PERHAPS EARLY SUNDAY...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...INCLUDING OUR CWA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BY SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...AGAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THEN CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST...ALONG THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH AXIS...AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT THE NAM...WHICH THROUGH 84 HOURS IS JUST NOW UP TO
12Z SATURDAY...APPEARS TO KEEP THE PRIMARY AXIS OF OMEGA WELL TO
OUR SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT...KEEPS US DRY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE NAM UNFOLDS
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW RUNS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA FROM
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO PRESENT YET
ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND 30-60% POPS ARE NOW
SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RELEGATED
TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHICH IS WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST
OMEGA AND MOST EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL RESIDE
DURING THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM.
ONCE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END ON SUNDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OBSERVED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION COULD START OUT AS RAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR SNOWFALL AT THE SURFACE BY 12Z SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THAT SAID...WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY- LAYER WIND FIELD EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL AT LEAST AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY NEAR THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
SUPERBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS FROM MULTIPLE SETS OF GUIDANCE
THAT THIS TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS TOO HIGH AND NEEDS
TO BE REDUCED BY 4-5 DEGREES. WENT AHEAD WITH A ~2 DEGREE DECREASE
FROM THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY HIGHS TO ACCOUNT OF
THIS...BUT EVEN NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SATURDAY
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND GIVEN
THIS...DESPITE FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND EC SUGGESTING SNOWFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...FIND IT HARD TO JUSTIFY AN ALL-SNOW
FORECAST WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE READINGS SO HIGH. AS A
RESULT...OPTED TO GO WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH ALL SNOW THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS DIABATIC HEATING IS LOST AND A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
CLEARS THE AREA. OBVIOUSLY THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS ANY MORE OF A DECREASE IN
SATURDAYS TEMPERATURE FORECAST WOULD SUGGEST MORE SNOW THAN RAIN
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
OBVIOUSLY STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH SNOWFALL IS REALIZED DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND RESULTANT SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...IT STILL REMAINS TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC ON SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THAT SAID...ONCE AGAIN TAKING
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC AT FACE VALUE SUGGESTS ADVISORY-WORTHY
ACCUMULATION OF ~3 INCHES COULD BE REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONE...DESPITE WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE IS NOW
SUGGESTING THAT AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT POST-FROPA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL PROMOTE A STRONG WIND...SUSTAINED
AT AROUND 18KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WIND...WORKING IN CONCERT
WITH THE SNOWFALL...WOULD LIKELY CREATE AT LEAST PERIODIC
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN BLOWING SNOW. SO...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
WE NOW HAVE "LIKELY" POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND...AND THE FACT THAT IT NOW APPEARS WE HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...FEEL IT
PRUDENT TO INTRODUCE A MENTION OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND IN THE
HWO.
FINALLY...HIGHS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S...BUT WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S POST-FROPA STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO START THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THESE READINGS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN LYING WITH WINDS. A WEAKER
SURFACE PATTERN CURRENTLY IN PLACE LOOKS TO KEEP SRLY WINDS ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING MORE WRLY NEAR SUNRISE AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT STARTS WORKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECTING THE
FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING GUSTIER NW WINDS TO MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH
THE TERMINAL AREAS DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...WITH SPEEDS THEN
INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WHICH
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
GUSTY W/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE
AGAIN FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE WITH THOSE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIE ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LEXINGTON NEB TO BELOIT KS LINE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
YET ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TODAY. AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE MAINLY IN THE MID
30S...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TODAY TO REACH INTO THE 60S /NEAR 70
POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN LOCATIONS/. HERE IS THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE INFORMATION FOR TODAY...WITH GRAND ISLAND CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BREAK THAT RECORD...BUT HASTINGS FORECAST TO FALL A
BIT SHORT.
GRAND ISLAND: RECORD IS 63 DEGREES IN 1986. FORECAST HIGH: 65
HASTINGS: RECORD IS 69 DEGREES IN 1931. FORECAST HIGH: 65
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP
FIRE WEATHER...ADP
CLIMATE...ADP
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH PRECIP SPREADING
EAST ACROSS NY. AT THIS POINT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW IN THE CWA HAS
BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THERE IS A LOT OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIP NOW AROUND BUFFALO WILL MOVE EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW MOVING
INTO REMAINING AREAS OF THE CWA TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE.
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA FROM
ONONDAGA EAST THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTIES...AS DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGEST HERE...AND THERE WILL ALSO BE ADDED OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION. NAM AND RAP SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS
FAIRLY WELL SO LEANED FORECAST TOWARD THESE MODELS. THE LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE
NW AND STARTING THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE. ARCTIC AIR RETURNS
QUICKLY FRIDAY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH FALLING TEMPS
THROUGH THE DAY. MODERATE SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO STRONGER NW WINDS
LATE TONIGHT AND CREATE DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW.
WITH A NW LL FLOW FRIDAY LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE USUAL
AREAS OF CENTRAL NY. CAA WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME THE INVERSION AND DENDRITE ZONE LOWER.
MULTI BAND LES COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOW OF 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES OF LES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION WIND GUSTS TO 35
WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FRIDAY. FURTHER SOUTH, WE GENERALLY
EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM NE PA
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE... LINGERING MULTI-BAND LES ACRS CNY AND PA`S NRN
TIER FRI EVE...WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AS THE CAPPING
INVERSION LWRS. ANOTHER LOCALIZED 1-2" MAY ACCUMULATE FRI NGT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE UPR SUSQ/FINGER LKS RGNS IN CNY.
VERY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS ARE DEFINITELY A CONCERN FRI
NGT...WITH SFC WINDS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDING...AND ACTUAL AIR TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE 5 ABV TO 10 BLO RANGE. WE`LL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS SITN IN THE HWO...CITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WC
ADVSYS OR WRNGS IN LATER FCST UPDATES.
OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW FLRYS ON SAT...THE DAY SHOULD BE LARGELY
DRY...WITH BRIEF RIDGING AT THE SFC AND SOME S/WV RIDGING ALOFT
ACRS THE FA.
SAT NGT INTO SUN MRNG...A WEAK NRN STREAM S/WV AND SFC FRNT WILL
PUSH SWD THROUGH CNY/NE PA...ACCOMPANIED BY FLRYS AND SCTD LGT
SNOW SHWRS (LTL OR NO ACCUMS).
BY LATER SUN AFTN...WE MAY SEE SOME STEADIER LGT SNOW APPROACH OUR
FAR SWRN ZNS...ON THE OUTER EDGES OF THE NEXT S/WV AND FAST MOVG
SFC WV. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE FOLLOWING SXN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE... MODEL DISAGREEMENT/INCONSISTENCY CONTS WITH THE
LATEST CYCLES REGARDING THE SUN NGT-MON STORM SYSTEM. THE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EC/GFS HAVE TRENDED NWD SOMEWHAT AGN...NOW TRACKING
THE SFC LOW THROUGH VA AND SERN MD...AND BRINGING LGT SNOW AT
LEAST TO THE PA/NY BORDER...IF NOT INTO NY`S SRN TIER.
MEANWHILE...THE CAN GEM HAS NOW GONE MUCH FARTHER S...TAKING THE
SFC WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WITH LTL OR NO SNOWFALL FOR OUR FA.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...THE EXPECTATION OF FURTHER MODEL
WAFFLING...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THE SUPPORTING S/WV ENERGY IS
NOW JUST APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...WE`LL
SIMPLY MAKE VERY SMALL INCREMENTAL CHGS ATTM...JUST EASING POPS
UPWARD AGN TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST EC/GFS TRENDS. THIS RESULTS
IN LIKELY POPS FOR OUR FAR SRN ZNS SUN NGT (BACK DOWN TO CHC BY
MON)...AND CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PD FOR OUR NY SRN TIER CNTYS.
ALTHOUGH...STRICTLY SPEAKING...WE`RE CURRENTLY INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER PTNS OF NE PA...THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STAY
TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS SITN.
TUE INTO WED LOOK QUIETER...BUT VERY COLD...WITH ONLY SOME FLRYS
FORESEEN AT WORST.
BY WED NGT AND THU...OUR NEXT REINFORCING COLD FRNT AND NRN STREAM
S/WV APPROACH...BRINGING A CHC OF SNOW SHWRS. THE EC IS ALSO
SHOWING THE PSBLTY THAT SOME SRN STREAM MOISTURE GETS INCORPORATED
INTO THE SYSTEM. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT ALL OF THESE FINE
DETAILS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BUT A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AT FIRST. FOLLOWED
BY A LULL SOUTHERN TERMINALS, MORE SNOW MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.
WENT WITH PERIODS OF IFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TAKING AWHILE TO SATURATE. OVERALL THOUGH
THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MORE IFR AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON,
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY, A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SNOWS WITH IFR VSBYS
ESPECIALLY TO KSYR, AND PERHAPS KITH AND KBGM FROM TIME TO TIME.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN WIND SHEAR
THIS EVENING AS WINDS NEAR 2000 FT WILL BE INCREASING TO 40+
KNOTS.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS EARLY TONIGHT VEERING INTO THE NORTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT...PSBL RESTRICTIONS (MVFR/IFR) IN SNOW SHWRS...SPCLY IN
THE EVE OVER NORTHERN AREAS
SAT...SAT NGT...AND MOST OF SUN...VFR.
SUN NGT MON...PSBL RESTRICTIONS (MVFR/IFR) IN SNOW.
TUE...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-
016>018-036-037-044>046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...KAH/PCF
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH PRECIP SPREADING
EAST ACROSS NY. AT THIS POINT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW IN THE CWA HAS
BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THERE IS A LOT OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIP NOW AROUND BUFFALO WILL MOVE EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW MOVING
INTO REMAINING AREAS OF THE CWA TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE.
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA FROM
ONONDAGA EAST THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTIES...AS DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGEST HERE...AND THERE WILL ALSO BE ADDED OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION. NAM AND RAP SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS
FAIRLY WELL SO LEANED FORECAST TOWARD THESE MODELS. THE LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE
NW AND STARTING THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE. ARCTIC AIR RETURNS
QUICKLY FRIDAY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH FALLING TEMPS
THROUGH THE DAY. MODERATE SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO STRONGER NW WINDS
LATE TONIGHT AND CREATE DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW.
WITH A NW LL FLOW FRIDAY LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE USUAL
AREAS OF CENTRAL NY. CAA WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME THE INVERSION AND DENDRITE ZONE LOWER.
MULTI BAND LES COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOW OF 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES OF LES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION WIND GUSTS TO 35
WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FRIDAY. FURTHER SOUTH, WE GENERALLY
EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM NE PA
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE... LINGERING MULTI-BAND LES ACRS CNY AND PA`S NRN
TIER FRI EVE...WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AS THE CAPPING
INVERSION LWRS. ANOTHER LOCALIZED 1-2" MAY ACCUMULATE FRI NGT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE UPR SUSQ/FINGER LKS RGNS IN CNY.
VERY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS ARE DEFINITELY A CONCERN FRI
NGT...WITH SFC WINDS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDING...AND ACTUAL AIR TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE 5 ABV TO 10 BLO RANGE. WE`LL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS SITN IN THE HWO...CITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WC
ADVSYS OR WRNGS IN LATER FCST UPDATES.
OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW FLRYS ON SAT...THE DAY SHOULD BE LARGELY
DRY...WITH BRIEF RIDGING AT THE SFC AND SOME S/WV RIDGING ALOFT
ACRS THE FA.
SAT NGT INTO SUN MRNG...A WEAK NRN STREAM S/WV AND SFC FRNT WILL
PUSH SWD THROUGH CNY/NE PA...ACCOMPANIED BY FLRYS AND SCTD LGT
SNOW SHWRS (LTL OR NO ACCUMS).
BY LATER SUN AFTN...WE MAY SEE SOME STEADIER LGT SNOW APPROACH OUR
FAR SWRN ZNS...ON THE OUTER EDGES OF THE NEXT S/WV AND FAST MOVG
SFC WV. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE FOLLOWING SXN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE... MODEL DISAGREEMENT/INCONSISTENCY CONTS WITH THE
LATEST CYCLES REGARDING THE SUN NGT-MON STORM SYSTEM. THE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EC/GFS HAVE TRENDED NWD SOMEWHAT AGN...NOW TRACKING
THE SFC LOW THROUGH VA AND SERN MD...AND BRINGING LGT SNOW AT
LEAST TO THE PA/NY BORDER...IF NOT INTO NY`S SRN TIER.
MEANWHILE...THE CAN GEM HAS NOW GONE MUCH FARTHER S...TAKING THE
SFC WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WITH LTL OR NO SNOWFALL FOR OUR FA.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...THE EXPECTATION OF FURTHER MODEL
WAFFLING...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THE SUPPORTING S/WV ENERGY IS
NOW JUST APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...WE`LL
SIMPLY MAKE VERY SMALL INCREMENTAL CHGS ATTM...JUST EASING POPS
UPWARD AGN TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST EC/GFS TRENDS. THIS RESULTS
IN LIKELY POPS FOR OUR FAR SRN ZNS SUN NGT (BACK DOWN TO CHC BY
MON)...AND CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PD FOR OUR NY SRN TIER CNTYS.
ALTHOUGH...STRICTLY SPEAKING...WE`RE CURRENTLY INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER PTNS OF NE PA...THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STAY
TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS SITN.
TUE INTO WED LOOK QUIETER...BUT VERY COLD...WITH ONLY SOME FLRYS
FORESEEN AT WORST.
BY WED NGT AND THU...OUR NEXT REINFORCING COLD FRNT AND NRN STREAM
S/WV APPROACH...BRINGING A CHC OF SNOW SHWRS. THE EC IS ALSO
SHOWING THE PSBLTY THAT SOME SRN STREAM MOISTURE GETS INCORPORATED
INTO THE SYSTEM. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT ALL OF THESE FINE
DETAILS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BUT A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AT FIRST. FOLLOWED
BY A LULL SOUTHERN TERMINALS, MORE SNOW MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.
WENT WITH PERIODS OF IFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TAKING AWHILE TO SATURATE. OVERALL THOUGH
THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MORE IFR AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON,
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY, A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SNOWS WITH IFR VSBYS
ESPECIALLY TO KSYR, AND PERHAPS KITH AND KBGM FROM TIME TO TIME.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN WIND SHEAR
THIS EVENING AS WINDS NEAR 2000 FT WILL BE INCREASING TO 40+
KNOTS.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS EARLY TONIGHT VEERING INTO THE NORTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT...PSBL RESTRICTIONS (MVFR/IFR) IN SNOW SHWRS...SPCLY IN
THE EVE OVER NORTHERN AREAS
SAT...SAT NGT...AND MOST OF SUN...VFR.
SUN NGT MON...PSBL RESTRICTIONS (MVFR/IFR) IN SNOW.
TUE...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-
016>018-036-037-044>046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...KAH/PCF
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
738 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET FRIDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS SENDING WIND
CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH PRECIP SPREADING
EAST ACROSS NY. AT THIS POINT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW IN THE CWA HAS
BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THERE IS A LOT OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIP NOW AROUND BUFFALO WILL MOVE EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW MOVING
INTO REMAINING AREAS OF THE CWA TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE.
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA FROM
ONONDAGA EAST THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTIES...AS DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGEST HERE...AND THERE WILL ALSO BE ADDED OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION. NAM AND RAP SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS
FAIRLY WELL SO LEANED FORECAST TOWARD THESE MODELS. THE LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE
NW AND STARTING THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE. ARCTIC AIR RETURNS
QUICKLY FRIDAY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH FALLING TEMPS
THROUGH THE DAY. MODERATE SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO STRONGER NW WINDS
LATE TONIGHT AND CREATE DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW.
WITH A NW LL FLOW FRIDAY LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE USUAL
AREAS OF CENTRAL NY. CAA WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME THE INVERSION AND DENDRITE ZONE LOWER.
MULTI BAND LES COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOW OF 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES OF LES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION WIND GUSTS TO 35
WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FRIDAY. FURTHER SOUTH, WE GENERALLY
EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM NE PA
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE... LINGERING MULTI-BAND LES ACRS CNY AND PA`S NRN
TIER FRI EVE...WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AS THE CAPPING
INVERSION LWRS. ANOTHER LOCALIZED 1-2" MAY ACCUMULATE FRI NGT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE UPR SUSQ/FINGER LKS RGNS IN CNY.
VERY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS ARE DEFINITELY A CONCERN FRI
NGT...WITH SFC WINDS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDING...AND ACTUAL AIR TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE 5 ABV TO 10 BLO RANGE. WE`LL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS SITN IN THE HWO...CITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WC
ADVSYS OR WRNGS IN LATER FCST UPDATES.
OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW FLRYS ON SAT...THE DAY SHOULD BE LARGELY
DRY...WITH BRIEF RIDGING AT THE SFC AND SOME S/WV RIDGING ALOFT
ACRS THE FA.
SAT NGT INTO SUN MRNG...A WEAK NRN STREAM S/WV AND SFC FRNT WILL
PUSH SWD THROUGH CNY/NE PA...ACCOMPANIED BY FLRYS AND SCTD LGT
SNOW SHWRS (LTL OR NO ACCUMS).
BY LATER SUN AFTN...WE MAY SEE SOME STEADIER LGT SNOW APPROACH OUR
FAR SWRN ZNS...ON THE OUTER EDGES OF THE NEXT S/WV AND FAST MOVG
SFC WV. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE FOLLOWING SXN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE... MODEL DISAGREEMENT/INCONSISTENCY CONTS WITH THE
LATEST CYCLES REGARDING THE SUN NGT-MON STORM SYSTEM. THE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EC/GFS HAVE TRENDED NWD SOMEWHAT AGN...NOW TRACKING
THE SFC LOW THROUGH VA AND SERN MD...AND BRINGING LGT SNOW AT
LEAST TO THE PA/NY BORDER...IF NOT INTO NY`S SRN TIER.
MEANWHILE...THE CAN GEM HAS NOW GONE MUCH FARTHER S...TAKING THE
SFC WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WITH LTL OR NO SNOWFALL FOR OUR FA.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...THE EXPECTATION OF FURTHER MODEL
WAFFLING...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THE SUPPORTING S/WV ENERGY IS
NOW JUST APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...WE`LL
SIMPLY MAKE VERY SMALL INCREMENTAL CHGS ATTM...JUST EASING POPS
UPWARD AGN TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST EC/GFS TRENDS. THIS RESULTS
IN LIKELY POPS FOR OUR FAR SRN ZNS SUN NGT (BACK DOWN TO CHC BY
MON)...AND CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PD FOR OUR NY SRN TIER CNTYS.
ALTHOUGH...STRICTLY SPEAKING...WE`RE CURRENTLY INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER PTNS OF NE PA...THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STAY
TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS SITN.
TUE INTO WED LOOK QUIETER...BUT VERY COLD...WITH ONLY SOME FLRYS
FORESEEN AT WORST.
BY WED NGT AND THU...OUR NEXT REINFORCING COLD FRNT AND NRN STREAM
S/WV APPROACH...BRINGING A CHC OF SNOW SHWRS. THE EC IS ALSO
SHOWING THE PSBLTY THAT SOME SRN STREAM MOISTURE GETS INCORPORATED
INTO THE SYSTEM. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT ALL OF THESE FINE
DETAILS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BUT A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AT FIRST. FOLLOWED
BY A LULL SOUTHERN TERMINALS, MORE SNOW MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.
WENT WITH PERIODS OF IFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TAKING AWHILE TO SATURATE. OVERALL THOUGH
THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MORE IFR AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON,
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY, A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SNOWS WITH IFR VSBYS
ESPECIALLY TO KSYR, AND PERHAPS KITH AND KBGM FROM TIME TO TIME.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN WIND SHEAR
THIS EVENING AS WINDS NEAR 2000 FT WILL BE INCREASING TO 40+
KNOTS.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS EARLY TONIGHT VEERING INTO THE NORTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT...PSBL RESTRICTIONS (MVFR/IFR) IN SNOW SHWRS...SPCLY IN
THE EVE OVER NORTHERN AREAS
SAT...SAT NGT...AND MOST OF SUN...VFR.
SUN NGT MON...PSBL RESTRICTIONS (MVFR/IFR) IN SNOW.
TUE...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-
016>018-036-037-044>046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
930 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THIS COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CROSS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF RADAR RETURNS HAS
ACTUALLY EXPANDED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS...BUT PRECIP IS FALLING
FROM A CLOUD BASE OF AROUND 11 KFT AND WITH A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER HAVE NOT SEEN ANY REPORTS OF ACCUMULATING RAIN YET. STILL
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACCUMULATION IN A
FEW SPOTS...BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT MORE THAN PRESENT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FORECAST CONTINUES AS BEFORE...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
MOISTURE IN SHORT SUPPLY WITH COLD FRONT DRAWING NEAR WITHOUT AN
OPEN DOOR FROM THE GULF. UPPER SUPPORT OF MODERATE STRENGTH
HOWEVER BASED ON PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS
POWERING INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT.
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HOLD NIGHT-TIME TEMPERATURES UP AND
LOOK FOR RISING TEMP CURVES FROM 00Z-09Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
READINGS AT 00Z WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE AT 12Z FRIDAY SO A
ROLLER COASTER OF A-TYPICAL TEMPERATURE FUN. WINDS GO NW INTO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HITS THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA WILL CREATE A SUNNY BUT
COLD FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER...AND THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE WIND CHILL MOST
OF THE DAY FOR THOSE OUTSIDE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE JUST
WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WHILE LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED...AND LOWS WILL DIP
WELL INTO THE 20S BY DAWN ON SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL BETTER THAN ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN THE MID-LEVEL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO ADVECT
OVERHEAD ON INCREASING SW MID-LEVEL FLOW. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SHORT TERM...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE...AND A
BKN/OVC MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP MINS MUCH WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO
AROUND 32...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TO SHIFT
EMPHASIS TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE PERSISTENT
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
AREA. THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE AND
IF ANYTHING A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS
UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN COVERED IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
STILL ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS WITH TOTAL QPF A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR SO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ONCE AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MEANDERS SEEMINGLY FOREVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MAKES A QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM STILL DOESNT APPEAR TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
IF FURTHER CYCLES SHOW PHASING A MORE PROLONGED AND SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED. LONG STORY SHORT...WE NOW HAVE GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES
LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MOST
PART. MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE MITIGATED BY MOISTURE AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL MORESO BECAUSE OF LINGERING MOISTURE. ANY RUN FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO MOISTURE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN BAND OF -RA MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...BUT OTHER THAN SOME MID-LEVEL CIGS...AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE LIMITED AS THE PCPN IS VERY LIGHT. THE HRRR SUGGESTS
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE COAST JUST AFTER
00Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE WEST
LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE GFS/HRRR DO FAVOR INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO EARLY FRI. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06-08Z
AND TEMPO -SHRA FOR THE COASTAL SITES FROM 09-13Z. CANNOT RULE OUT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER
SHOWER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THE COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER 12Z... BRINGING RAPID CLEARING AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE
SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS CONTINUE OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. STILL
EXPECTING SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF
A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN REACHES THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE OFF SHORE COMPONENT OF WIND
WILL SQUELCH WAVE GROWTH POTENTIAL BUT CERTAINLY APPEARS 25 KT
GUSTS ARE FAIR GAME BY 9Z IN WIND WEST SO ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AT 3AM ALL WATERS LOOKS GOOD AND WAS RETAINED. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS TO BE EXPECTED AFTER 3AM
ON THE WATERS...WHILE TSTMS REMAIN MORE CONFINED TO THE WEST WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM FARTHER OUT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO START THE PERIOD
WILL LEAVE STRONG NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE WINDS
WILL REACH 20-25 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THESE WINDS...EVEN AS
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE DAY. A W/NW DIRECTION WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT...BUT
WITH SPEEDS WEAKENING TO 10 KTS OR LESS LATE. SEAS WILL FALL AS
WELL...BECOMING JUST 1-2 FT SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION...SPEEDS REMAIN
IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. FOR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFFSHORE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION
MAKING THE TYPICAL PROGRESSION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO
EAST/SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RISE INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MONDAY DIMINISHING WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. MODEST SEAS FOR SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
632 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THIS COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CROSS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...THE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT IS LOOKING
MIGHTY WEAK AND SPOTTY WITH COVERAGE STEADILY DECREASING. WILL CUT
BACK ON COVERAGE WITH THE NEXT UPDATE AS IT SEEMS UNLIKELY AT
PRESENT RATE THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER A VERY
SIGNIFICANT AREA. REST OF FORECAST GOOD TO GO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
MOISTURE IN SHORT SUPPLY WITH COLD FRONT DRAWING NEAR WITHOUT AN
OPEN DOOR FROM THE GULF. UPPER SUPPORT OF MODERATE STRENGTH
HOWEVER BASED ON PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS
POWERING INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT.
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HOLD NIGHT-TIME TEMPERATURES UP AND
LOOK FOR RISING TEMP CURVES FROM 00Z-09Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
READINGS AT 00Z WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE AT 12Z FRIDAY SO A
ROLLER COASTER OF A-TYPICAL TEMPERATURE FUN. WINDS GO NW INTO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HITS THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA WILL CREATE A SUNNY BUT
COLD FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER...AND THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE WIND CHILL MOST
OF THE DAY FOR THOSE OUTSIDE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE JUST
WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WHILE LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED...AND LOWS WILL DIP
WELL INTO THE 20S BY DAWN ON SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL BETTER THAN ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN THE MID-LEVEL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO ADVECT
OVERHEAD ON INCREASING SW MID-LEVEL FLOW. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SHORT TERM...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE...AND A
BKN/OVC MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP MINS MUCH WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO
AROUND 32...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TO SHIFT
EMPHASIS TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE PERSISTENT
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
AREA. THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE AND
IF ANYTHING A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS
UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN COVERED IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
STILL ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS WITH TOTAL QPF A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR SO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ONCE AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MEANDERS SEEMINGLY FOREVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MAKES A QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM STILL DOESNT APPEAR TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
IF FURTHER CYCLES SHOW PHASING A MORE PROLONGED AND SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED. LONG STORY SHORT...WE NOW HAVE GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES
LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MOST
PART. MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE MITIGATED BY MOISTURE AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL MORESO BECAUSE OF LINGERING MOISTURE. ANY RUN FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO MOISTURE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN BAND OF -RA MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...BUT OTHER THAN SOME MID-LEVEL CIGS...AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE LIMITED AS THE PCPN IS VERY LIGHT. THE HRRR SUGGESTS
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE COAST JUST AFTER
00Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE WEST
LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE GFS/HRRR DO FAVOR INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO EARLY FRI. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06-08Z
AND TEMPO -SHRA FOR THE COASTAL SITES FROM 09-13Z. CANNOT RULE OUT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER
SHOWER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THE COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER 12Z... BRINGING RAPID CLEARING AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE
SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. STILL EXPECTING SCA
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A MODERATELY
STRONG COLD FRONT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ANTICIPATED IN THE
NEAR TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN REACHES THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE OFF SHORE COMPONENT OF WIND
WILL SQUELCH WAVE GROWTH POTENTIAL BUT CERTAINLY APPEARS 25 KT
GUSTS ARE FAIR GAME BY 9Z IN WIND WEST SO ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AT 3AM ALL WATERS LOOKS GOOD AND WAS RETAINED. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS TO BE EXPECTED AFTER 3AM
ON THE WATERS...WHILE TSTMS REMAIN MORE CONFINED TO THE WEST WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM FARTHER OUT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO START THE PERIOD
WILL LEAVE STRONG NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE WINDS
WILL REACH 20-25 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THESE WINDS...EVEN AS
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE DAY. A W/NW DIRECTION WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT...BUT
WITH SPEEDS WEAKENING TO 10 KTS OR LESS LATE. SEAS WILL FALL AS
WELL...BECOMING JUST 1-2 FT SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION...SPEEDS REMAIN
IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. FOR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFFSHORE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION
MAKING THE TYPICAL PROGRESSION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO
EAST/SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RISE INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MONDAY DIMINISHING WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. MODEST SEAS FOR SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015
ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE CONSISTENTLY IMPROVED. HAVE LEFT AREAS OF FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WITH PATCHY MENTIONS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST.
INCREASED WINDS A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY WIND ADVISORY AS CRITERIA IS BORDERLINE AND THE HIGHEST
WIND SPEEDS DO NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH 00 UTC. PROFILES SHOW A SATURATED LOWER LEVEL AND WITH
MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH
DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
NO UPDATES OTHER THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST 6 AM
OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.
FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015
FOG AND CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED AT SITES KISN...KMOT...AND KJMS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIFR TO IFR. FOR KBIS AND
KDIK LOWER CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR IFR CONDITIONS. TOOK
OUT THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM TAFS AS PRECIP TYPE WILL MORE LIKELY
BE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SIMPLY DRIZZLE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AND PATCHY ACROSS THE REGION THUS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH BR
IN THE TAFS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1024 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH 00 UTC. PROFILES SHOW A SATURATED LOWER LEVEL AND WITH
MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH
DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
NO UPDATES OTHER THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST 6 AM
OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.
FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY TODAY AS
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. LOW
STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIFT TO
LIFR/IFR MOST AREAS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
021>023-025-036-037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
NO UPDATES OTHER THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST 6 AM
OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.
FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY TODAY AS
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. LOW
STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIFT TO
LIFR/IFR MOST AREAS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
021>023-025-036-037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.
FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY TODAY AS
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. LOW
STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIFT TO
LIFR/IFR MOST AREAS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
021>023-025-036-037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1100 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW
STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS STEADY SNOW ASSOC WITH LL JET/WAA
PUSHING EAST OF CENTRAL PA AT 00Z. HOWEVER...POTENT LOOKING
SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SUPPORTING ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIP OVR WESTERN PA AT 00Z...WHICH WILL SWING THRU THE CWA BTWN
00Z-06Z. FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...EXPECT OCNL LGT SNOW TO
CONTINUE THRU LATE EVENING...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE ROLLS THRU. OVR
THE S TIER COUNTIES...LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NAM SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT FOR SOME LGT FREEZING RAIN
OVERNIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THE THREAT FOR ICY CONDITIONS WITH A
WINT WEATHER ADVISORY OVER MY SOUTHERN TIER. OVERALL REASONING
HAS NOT CHANGED WITH JUST ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO CAUSE
A PERIOD OF NUISANCE-TYPE ICING.
HAVE TWEAKED SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...BASED ON
SFC REPORTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE ARND 4 INCHES ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO LESS THAN AN INCH FROM HARRISBURG SOUTHWARD. HAVE
INCLUDED LIGHT ICE TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SWINGING THROUGH THE ALLEGHENY MTNS ARND
03Z AND THE EASTERN ZONES SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...ONLY
SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE WRN
MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY AS ARCTIC AIR PAYS A
RETURN VISIT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
PROBABLY SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME STRAY FLURRIES.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY AND EITHER STAY STEADY OR FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TOOK OUT MENTION OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...FLOW TOO NORTHERLY.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL AROUND
14Z. STILL MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF AN ADVISORY
FOR NOW.
SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE.
SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE
LOW CHC IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST.
MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH
OF PA LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THUS LEFT SNOW IN
THE FCST. DID SOME MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS. MAIN THING WAS
TO CUT BACK POPS ACROSS THE NW EARLY MONDAY. NOT SEEING
A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT LATE MONDAY...FLOW TOO
NORTHERLY. THUS MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.
MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED.
HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AREA OF SNOW ASSCD WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT TO PASS LATER TONIGHT...HAS MOVED EAST OF CENTRAL PA.
SECONDARY AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW NOW WORKING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. OBSERVED CONDS LINE UP LINE TYPICAL POST FRONTAL
FLOW...WITH IFR IN THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...MVFR IN THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND VFR OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MID AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AROUND 06Z FRIDAY OVER THE WEST. MORE LIKE
08-11Z OVER THE SERN AREAS. THE CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR.
SUN...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD.
TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ025>028-
034>036-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
713 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW
STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS STEADY SNOW ASSOC WITH LL JET/WAA
PUSHING EAST OF CENTRAL PA AT 00Z. HOWEVER...POTENT LOOKING
SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SUPPORTING ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIP OVR WESTERN PA AT 00Z...WHICH WILL SWING THRU THE CWA BTWN
00Z-06Z. FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...EXPECT OCNL LGT SNOW TO
CONTINUE THRU LATE EVENING...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE ROLLS THRU. OVR
THE S TIER COUNTIES...LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NAM SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT FOR SOME LGT FREEZING RAIN
OVERNIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THE THREAT FOR ICY CONDITIONS WITH A
WINT WEATHER ADVISORY OVER MY SOUTHERN TIER. OVERALL REASONING
HAS NOT CHANGED WITH JUST ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO CAUSE
A PERIOD OF NUISANCE-TYPE ICING.
HAVE TWEAKED SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...BASED ON
SFC REPORTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE ARND 4 INCHES ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO LESS THAN AN INCH FROM HARRISBURG SOUTHWARD. HAVE
INCLUDED LIGHT ICE TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SWINGING THROUGH THE ALLEGHENY MTNS ARND
03Z AND THE EASTERN ZONES SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...ONLY
SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE WRN
MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY AS ARCTIC AIR PAYS A
RETURN VISIT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
PROBABLY SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME STRAY FLURRIES.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY AND EITHER STAY STEADY OR FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TOOK OUT MENTION OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...FLOW TOO NORTHERLY.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL AROUND
14Z. STILL MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF AN ADVISORY
FOR NOW.
SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE.
SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE
LOW CHC IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST.
MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH
OF PA LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THUS LEFT SNOW IN
THE FCST. DID SOME MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS. MAIN THING WAS
TO CUT BACK POPS ACROSS THE NW EARLY MONDAY. NOT SEEING
A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT LATE MONDAY...FLOW TOO
NORTHERLY. THUS MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.
MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED.
HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.
SNOW WILL BEGIN SHORTLY IN BRADFORD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH THE SNOW...SPREADING EAST 18-00Z. SOUTHERN
TIER TERMINALS FROM JST-AOO EAST INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS.
REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AROUND 03Z FRIDAY OVER THE WEST. MORE LIKE
06-09Z OVER THE SERN AREAS. THE CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR.
SUN...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD.
TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ025>028-
034>036-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1151 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY...WHICH WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE. VERY MILD 925 MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE
ZERO AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL TAP INTO SOME CONTINUED
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL IMPACT WARMING TODAY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS. THINK THE THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND THE IOWA GREAT
LAKES ARE WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE BULK OF THE DAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA.
IF CLOUDS LOOK LESS ABUNDANT...COULD SEE READINGS WARM ABOVE
FORECAST HIGHS. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS WITH THE ANTICIPATED
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
WITH THE FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS WILL ROLL BACK INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 40 TO 50 KT
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL...ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 OR 45 MPH.
GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES FOR NOW.
WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS BLANKETING THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND WHILE THE LOW
STRATUS DOES THICKEN...THE CLOUD MASS REMAINS LARGELY OUTSIDE THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
MAINLY IN OUR MN COUNTIES...WITH SOME PATCH DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA AND GOOD MIXING IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S FROM EAST
CENTRAL SD THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN...TO UPPER 30S THROUGH THE MO
RIVER CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL DIE OFF ON THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS THROUGH THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. TO THE WEST...IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH
AN ENSUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH LOWS GENERALLY LOWER 20S. FRIDAY WILL SEE WARMING
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AS WARM AS THE MID
40S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
ON SATURDAY NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA AND SLIDES SOUTHWARD AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS TO THE
NORTH...CONVERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON HOW THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES...BUT DOES POTENTIALLY
BRING PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA FOR
LATER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE JAMES BAY BEGINS TO DRIVE COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE
RANGE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FOR GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF IT TRENDS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. IT STILL WONT BE UNREASONABLY COLD ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. THE COLD AIR THEN LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL ALSO HAVE MVFR
STRATUS...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AFTER 03Z -15ZISH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
550 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY...WHICH WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE. VERY MILD 925 MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE
ZERO AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL TAP INTO SOME CONTINUED
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL IMPACT WARMING TODAY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS. THINK THE THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND THE IOWA GREAT
LAKES ARE WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE BULK OF THE DAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA.
IF CLOUDS LOOK LESS ABUNDANT...COULD SEE READINGS WARM ABOVE
FORECAST HIGHS. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS WITH THE ANTICIPATED
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
WITH THE FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS WILL ROLL BACK INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 40 TO 50 KT
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL...ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 OR 45 MPH.
GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES FOR NOW.
WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS BLANKETING THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND WHILE THE LOW
STRATUS DOES THICKEN...THE CLOUD MASS REMAINS LARGELY OUTSIDE THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
MAINLY IN OUR MN COUNTIES...WITH SOME PATCH DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA AND GOOD MIXING IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S FROM EAST
CENTRAL SD THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN...TO UPPER 30S THROUGH THE MO
RIVER CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL DIE OFF ON THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS THROUGH THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. TO THE WEST...IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH
AN ENSUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH LOWS GENERALLY LOWER 20S. FRIDAY WILL SEE WARMING
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AS WARM AS THE MID
40S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
ON SATURDAY NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA AND SLIDES SOUTHWARD AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS TO THE
NORTH...CONVERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON HOW THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES...BUT DOES POTENTIALLY
BRING PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA FOR
LATER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE JAMES BAY BEGINS TO DRIVE COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE
RANGE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FOR GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF IT TRENDS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. IT STILL WONT BE UNREASONABLY COLD ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. THE COLD AIR THEN LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE TRACKING ALONG OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXPAND MUCH
FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING...HOWEVER A FAST MOVING FRONT WILL TRACK
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA 18Z THROUGH 00Z THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND USHER IN ADDITION LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BEHIND
IT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30+ KT IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
319 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY...WHICH WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE. VERY MILD 925 MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE
ZERO AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL TAP INTO SOME CONTINUED
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL IMPACT WARMING TODAY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS. THINK THE THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND THE IOWA GREAT
LAKES ARE WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE BULK OF THE DAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA.
IF CLOUDS LOOK LESS ABUNDANT...COULD SEE READINGS WARM ABOVE
FORECAST HIGHS. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS WITH THE ANTICIPATED
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
WITH THE FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS WILL ROLL BACK INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 40 TO 50 KT
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL...ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 OR 45 MPH.
GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES FOR NOW.
WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS BLANKETING THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND WHILE THE LOW
STRATUS DOES THICKEN...THE CLOUD MASS REMAINS LARGELY OUTSIDE THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
MAINLY IN OUR MN COUNTIES...WITH SOME PATCH DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA AND GOOD MIXING IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S FROM EAST
CENTRAL SD THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN...TO UPPER 30S THROUGH THE MO
RIVER CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL DIE OFF ON THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS THROUGH THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. TO THE WEST...IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH
AN ENSUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH LOWS GENERALLY LOWER 20S. FRIDAY WILL SEE WARMING
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AS WARM AS THE MID
40S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
ON SATURDAY NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA AND SLIDES SOUTHWARD AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS TO THE
NORTH...CONVERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON HOW THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES...BUT DOES POTENTIALLY
BRING PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA FOR
LATER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE JAMES BAY BEGINS TO DRIVE COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE
RANGE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FOR GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF IT TRENDS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. IT STILL WONT BE UNREASONABLY COLD ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. THE COLD AIR THEN LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
MVFR CEILINGS JUST BRUSHING EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THOSE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILE
WHICH SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE...TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN
THE POTENTIAL STRATUS LAYER AND ABOVE...PREFER MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
KEEP THE AREA LARGELY VFR. AREA TO WATCH MAY BE KHON...AS SATELLITE
SHOWING EITHER STRATUS OR FOG HUGGING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER PREFERRED MODELS WHICH KEEP THIS
JUST WEST OF KHON...AND THUS WILL CARRY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH SUNSET WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
TRAIL SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY 3-6 HOURS...AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
ALOFT AFTER 29/00Z. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30+ KTS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015
AT 3 PM...SURFACE LOWS WERE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
WEST OF HUDSON BAY. IN BETWEEN THESE 2 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...
A TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. LIKE THE
28.00Z AND 28.06Z MODELS...THE 28.12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THIS TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. AS IT APPROACHES...MODERATE TO STRONG
925 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND WESTERN WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN MOISTENING THE AIR MASS BELOW 800 MB.
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW THAT THERE IS NO INTRODUCTION OF ICE FROM
ALOFT...THUS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION IN FORM OF SUPER COOLED
WATER DROPLETS. THERE WERE A FEW -8C SHOWING AT TIMES...SO TOTALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT MAYBE A BIT OF SNOW...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
ACCUMULATE. WITH THE PRECIPITATION BEING DRIZZLE...THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE HOW COLD WILL BE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
FILTERED SUNSHINE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 HAS ALLOWED SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...AND PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. WITH THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE...THE
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING WEST
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. AS A RESULT...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT THERE LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED. MEANWHILE NORTH AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM. THIS IS
DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OVER THE SNOW PACK. WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY BELOW FREEZING DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 AM FOR THESE AREAS. ONLY A LIGHT
GLAZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SURFACES.
ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS SHOW THAT A SECOND SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SOME MODERATE COLD
AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...THE TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ENOUGH FOR THERE TO BE A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE. LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALSO
WITH THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AND SLOWLY
ERODE DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.
FOR THE ENTIRE DAY THURSDAY...THE MODELS SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 950 AND 900 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NORTHWEST
WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN...AND INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE BEST LIFT AND SATURATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH THE FRONT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL
STILL SHOWING ADVISORY SNOW IS THE GEM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW
DEVELOPMENT...STILL KEPT THE SNOW CHANCES IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TAKE THEM
OUT OR LOWER THESE SNOW CHANCES FURTHER.
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOK TO BE MUCH COLDER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES...AND
LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. THE LATEST 28.12Z NAM/GFS AND 28.15Z RAP ARE INDICATING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS
WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO BOTH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AND
ABOVE FREEZING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND
THE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
ALL LIQUID AND DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES
FROM 02Z THURSDAY INTO 12Z THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY...DID NOT INTRODUCE INTO
THE TAFS.
NEXT CONCERN ARE LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL HOVER IN
THE LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT RST...AS CEILINGS CURRENTLY BELOW 500
FEET AND RISE INTO THE 500-1000 FEET RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEN...AS SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN IOWA AND SUNSET CEILINGS WILL
LOWER BELOW 500 FEET THIS EVENING. AT THE LSE TAF SITE CEILINGS
WILL LOWER INTO THE 500-1000 FEET RANGE AROUND 02Z AND RISE BACK
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND 09Z THURSDAY. WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONT
PASSAGE BETWEEN 09-12Z THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
THE BACKSIDE AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. HAVE INTRODUCE WIND
GUST OF 27 KNOTS AT RST TAF SITE AND 23 KNOTS AT LSE TAF SITE AT
12Z THURSDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DTJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1142 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC OBS AND FOG-
PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WI/MN
AND EASTERN IA. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATED THIS CLOUD
DECK ABOUT 1000 FT THICK. THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION NEAR 900MB. THE CLOUD BLANKET AND
INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS HOLDING TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
INITIALIZATIONS OF 28.00Z MODELS GENERALLY LOOK QUITE GOOD.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVES OUT TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY NEARLY PHASE TONIGHT AS THEY
AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE
OF THE EARLIER 26.00Z/27.00Z RUNS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD BUT THE FCST HINGES ON LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH THE
MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH.
IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC
TODAY FOR HIGH TEMPS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SFC-850MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE PLAINS LOW MOVE TO NEAR
KFSD/KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION OVER THE AREA REMAINS STRONG
UNDER THE INCREASING 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LOWER STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE. CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE AREA TODAY...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE...BUT ONLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.
SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE/SATURATION IN ROUGHLY THE SFC-800MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN.
LOWER LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WITH THE SFC-850MB TROUGH AXIS...WITH
DEEP LAYERED LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES AND MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLDEST TEMPS IN
THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN AROUND -5C...INDICATING NO
ICE IN THE CLOUD DEPTH. PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT REMAIN MAINLY -DZ/
-FZDZ. CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 03Z-09Z WHEN THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH AXIS AND ITS CONVERGENCE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES THERE TONIGHT. GREATER THREAT OF MINOR ICING IS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA WERE TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE
MORE IN THE LOWER 30S AND ROAD TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO OR BELOW
FREEZING. MAY YET NEED A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL LET DAY CREW HAVE
ANOTHER CYCLE OF MODELS TO LOOK AT AND SEE WHAT SFC TEMPS DO TODAY
TO MAKE THE CALL ON THAT. WITH THICKER LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...THE
DZ/FZDZ CHANCES AND SOME PATCHY FOG...NEARLY STEADY TEMPS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING... THEN FALLING LATE AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES/LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. BY THIS TIME BULK OF THE DEEP LAYERED LIFT HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY
AND WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...LINGERING DZ/FZDZ
CHANCES THU MORNING...CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU THE PERIOD.
28.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
HGTS TO THEN RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN/
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE THU THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
THIS PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE A COOLER/DRY/QUIET PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPER LAYERED SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU MORNING. MAINLY LIMITED ANY LINGERING DZ/
FZDZ CHANCES TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY PROVIDES THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. APPEARS HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH STEADY/SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY UNDER THE
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/COLD ADVECTION AND CAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THU
NIGHT LOWS LOOKING TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY/VE BEEN DURING
THE PAST 2 WEEKS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRI AS THE SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER OF THIS SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BE FRI EVENING THEN
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AND
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASE A BIT.
USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU
FRI NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT/SUN...COLD TEMPERATURES MOM-TUE.
28.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT SAT/SUN FOR
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND IS A BIT STRONGER/MORE PHASED WITH THE
STREAMS/SHORTWAVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. GOOD BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT...LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONGER SHOT OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN SOME LOWER LEVEL
DETAIL DIFFERENCES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU TUE REMAINS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.
PHASING SHORTWAVES/DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SAT/SUN SENDS
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND. PW VALUES OF AROUND 1/2 INCH INDICATED IN THE INFLOW
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/SFC LOW. THIS MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO A COLUMN WITH SFC-600MB TEMPS FAVORING A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND FAVORABLE LIFT/DIVERGENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING
COLUMN SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 300MB OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR BY LATER SAT NIGHT AND FOR SUN. DETAIL DIFFERENCES INCLUDE HOW
MUCH AND QUICKLY PHASING ACTUALLY OCCURS AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE
GREATER THE 925-700MB MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ENDS UP
OCCURRING. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF
SNOW FOR PARTS OR ALL OF THE FCST AREA FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
NIGHT. SNOW CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...UNTIL THE DETAILS GET SORTED OUT. OVER WHAT
WOULD BE FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE
-15C TO -20C RANGE MON INTO MON NIGHT. TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK
CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU TUE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES...AND
LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. THE LATEST 28.12Z NAM/GFS AND 28.15Z RAP ARE INDICATING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS
WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO BOTH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AND
ABOVE FREEZING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND
THE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
ALL LIQUID AND DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES
FROM 02Z THURSDAY INTO 12Z THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY...DID NOT INTRODUCE INTO
THE TAFS.
NEXT CONCERN ARE LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL HOVER IN
THE LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT RST...AS CEILINGS CURRENTLY BELOW 500
FEET AND RISE INTO THE 500-1000 FEET RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEN...AS SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN IOWA AND SUNSET CEILINGS WILL
LOWER BELOW 500 FEET THIS EVENING. AT THE LSE TAF SITE CEILINGS
WILL LOWER INTO THE 500-1000 FEET RANGE AROUND 02Z AND RISE BACK
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND 09Z THURSDAY. WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONT
PASSAGE BETWEEN 09-12Z THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
THE BACKSIDE AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. HAVE INTRODUCE WIND
GUST OF 27 KNOTS AT RST TAF SITE AND 23 KNOTS AT LSE TAF SITE AT
12Z THURSDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...DTJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1036 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND THE STATE
OF WISCONSIN. BUT DESPITE THE RIDGE AXIS SHARPENING OVER NE
WISCONSIN...LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN AWFULLY DIFFICULT TO ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE VERY SLOWLY
ERODING FROM EAST TO WEST...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LIGHTENS AND
BACKS TO THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THINK THIS WILL ACCELERATE
CLEARING OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE. OTHERWISE...OVERCAST
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTHWEST LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
WHICH WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...CLOUD AND TEMP
TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING THEN RETREAT BACK EAST OVERNIGHT. STILL
ANTICIPATING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THAT AREA. FARTHER
WEST...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...AND TRENDS OVER
THE U.P. SUPPORT THAT CLOUDS WILL JUST ROTATE NORTHWARD...LEAVING A
LOW OVERCAST DECK IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...INCREASED SKY COVER.
THEN OVERNIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND ANY CLEARING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN SHOULD GO BACK
TO BROKEN OR OVERCAST. TRENDED WARMER WITH LOW TEMPS DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL FINALLY SURGE INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WHICH SHOULD ERODE ANY REMAINING LOW OVERCAST.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL HAVE AMPLE MID AND UPPER CLOUDS
OVERHEAD...MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. AN 850MB WARM FRONT WILL
BE MAKING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEDGE OF DRY
AIR AROUND 10KFT THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY. HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO IT WILL
BE GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SOME SNOW. THE FIRST IS TOMORROW NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS JET
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE ISN/T MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE UNTIL THE SYSTEM GETS EAST OF WISCONSIN. THEREFORE SNOW
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MIGHT BEGIN AS SLEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL AREAS. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF ARCTIC AIR. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A FEW WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...RESULTING IN
LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND SNOW AMOUNTS. MILD PACIFIC AIR
WILL BRING US WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
LOW CLDS ACTUALLY DISSIPATED IN FAR ERN WI FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTG BACK TO LIGHT SWLY...THEY
SHOULD EXPAND BACK ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO
GRADUALLY COME DOWN OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT NOT OCCURRING
UNTIL MID-DAY OR AFTN TOMORROW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
955 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTH END OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE ADJACENT MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
&&
.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY AND THE TULARE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. EDWARDS AFB ALREADY HAS REPORTED A
TRACE OF RAIN...AND RECEIVED A MEDIA REPORT OF RAIN IN ARVIN IN THE
SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
FURTHER INCREASE POPS OVER SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY AND TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP CATEGORY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WAS
SPINNING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING. BASED ON A REPORT OF SPRINKLES IN DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES...
CANNOT RULE OUT ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR
TWO OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE KERN DESERT...INDIAN
WELLS VALLEY...THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND THE PIUTES THROUGH 18Z
/1000 PST/ FRIDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TULE FOG
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. AT 0335Z FRIDAY
/1935 PST THIS EVENING/...THE VISIBILITY AT THE CASTLE AIRPARK HAD
ALREADY FALLEN BELOW 1/4 MILE...WITH THE MADERA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT
/KMAE/ FALLING BELOW A QUARTER MILE AT 0441Z FRIDAY /2041 PST
TONIGHT/...AND THE MERCED REGIONAL AIRPORT /KMCE/ DROPPING BELOW
A QUARTER MILE AT 0453Z FRIDAY /2053 PST TONIGHT/. THE START TIME
FOR THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY OF 04Z FRIDAY /2000 PST
TONIGHT/ WAS VERIFYING NICELY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THINNING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...NOW MAINLY JUST OVER
TULARE AND KERN COUNTIES. PATCHES OF TULE FOG LINGERED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAILING NOW. WITH THE SKIES CLEARING AND
VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...A REPEAT OF THE
DENSE FOG LOOKS VERY LIKELY TONIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG BEGINNING AROUND 04Z WHICH IS ABOUT THE TIME AS
LAST NIGHT. WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SJV FROM 04Z-
20Z FRIDAY... /8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY/.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY AND
BENEATH THE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH MEASURED
AT A COUPLE AUTOMATED GAUGES. WEB CAMS OVER THE SIERRA ARE SHOWING
THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL WITH BRIEF RAIN SHAFTS VISIBLE. THE BASE OF
THE ELONGATED TROUGH IS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THIS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE SIERRA
AND BRING A CHANCE TO THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AS WELL
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH ON
SATURDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER CALIFORNIA DURING THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH PASSING OVER THE PACNW WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
ON MONDAY THEN IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SO AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN WARM
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AND TULE FOG IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE SJV. THE FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BREAK AND IF THICK
ENOUGH...COULD JUST LIFT INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS MAKES HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS LESS CERTAIN FOR THE SJV.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...BECOMING AREAS
OF IFR WITH LOCAL VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG UNTIL 20Z FRIDAY. POSSIBLE
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE TEHACHAPI RANGE AND SIERRA
NEVADA IN SHOWERS UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY JANUARY 30 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
KERN AND TULARE COUNTIES. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS:
NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 01-29 73:1960 43:2002 55:1911 24:1902
KFAT 01-30 74:1984 41:1923 56:1911 25:1946
KFAT 01-31 75:1984 39:1969 55:1963 26:1949
KBFL 01-29 74:1986 42:2002 54:1986 27:1903
KBFL 01-30 77:1911 44:1951 60:1911 23:1902
KBFL 01-31 82:1984 45:1969 57:1963 23:1902
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY /CAZ089>092/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...MOLINA
PREV DISCUSSION...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DCH
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
910 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WAS
SPINNING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING. BASED ON A REPORT OF SPRINKLES IN DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES...
CANNOT RULE OUT ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR
TWO OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE KERN DESERT...INDIAN
WELLS VALLEY...THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND THE PIUTES THROUGH 18Z
/1000 PST/ FRIDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TULE FOG
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. AT 0335Z FRIDAY
/1935 PST THIS EVENING/...THE VISIBILITY AT THE CASTLE AIRPARK HAD
ALREADY FALLEN BELOW 1/4 MILE...WITH THE MADERA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT
/KMAE/ FALLING BELOW A QUARTER MILE AT 0441Z FRIDAY /2041 PST
TONIGHT/...AND THE MERCED REGIONAL AIRPORT /KMCE/ DROPPING BELOW
A QUARTER MILE AT 0453Z FRIDAY /2053 PST TONIGHT/. THE START TIME
FOR THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY OF 04Z FRIDAY /2000 PST
TONIGHT/ WAS VERIFYING NICELY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THINNING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...NOW MAINLY JUST OVER
TULARE AND KERN COUNTIES. PATCHES OF TULE FOG LINGERED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAILING NOW. WITH THE SKIES CLEARING AND
VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...A REPEAT OF THE
DENSE FOG LOOKS VERY LIKELY TONIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG BEGINNING AROUND 04Z WHICH IS ABOUT THE TIME AS
LAST NIGHT. WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SJV FROM 04Z-
20Z FRIDAY... /8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY/.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY AND
BENEATH THE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH MEASURED
AT A COUPLE AUTOMATED GAUGES. WEB CAMS OVER THE SIERRA ARE SHOWING
THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL WITH BRIEF RAIN SHAFTS VISIBLE. THE BASE OF
THE ELONGATED TROUGH IS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THIS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE SIERRA
AND BRING A CHANCE TO THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AS WELL
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH ON
SATURDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER CALIFORNIA DURING THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH PASSING OVER THE PACNW WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
ON MONDAY THEN IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SO AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN WARM
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AND TULE FOG IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE SJV. THE FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BREAK AND IF THICK
ENOUGH...COULD JUST LIFT INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS MAKES HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS LESS CERTAIN FOR THE SJV.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...BECOMING AREAS
OF IFR WITH LOCAL VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG UNTIL 20Z FRIDAY. POSSIBLE
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE TEHACHAPI RANGE AND SIERRA
NEVADA IN SHOWERS UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY JANUARY 30 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
KERN AND TULARE COUNTIES. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS:
NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 01-29 73:1960 43:2002 55:1911 24:1902
KFAT 01-30 74:1984 41:1923 56:1911 25:1946
KFAT 01-31 75:1984 39:1969 55:1963 26:1949
KBFL 01-29 74:1986 42:2002 54:1986 27:1903
KBFL 01-30 77:1911 44:1951 60:1911 23:1902
KBFL 01-31 82:1984 45:1969 57:1963 23:1902
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY /CAZ089>092/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...MOLINA
PREV DISCUSSION...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DCH
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
455 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TODAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF SNOW THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A SNOW SQUALL THIS
AFTERNOON. A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW USHERED IN BY
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EST...A SMATTERING OF SNOW THIS MORNING...CONTAINING
SOME BANDLETS OF MODERATE SNOW...WITH OTHERWISE LIGHT SNOW FALLING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BACK EDGE TO THE SNOW WORKING TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...A MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ASCENT THROUGH AT THE
MORNING HOURS...LEADING TO A POSSIBLE REGENERATION OF THE SNOW
SHIELD. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL LIKELY NOT RISE MUCH DURING THE MORNING.
WE DID CANCEL A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHERE IT
APPEARS ONLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE...BASICALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD.
WE CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 3-6 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY.
AN UPPER AIR LOW WILL FORM TO OUR SOUTH MIDDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO CAPE COD. MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IS POISED TO
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WIND PICKS UP.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW DEEPENING OFF CAPE COD AS IT GETS
"CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER AIR LOW.
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AND PERHAPS EVEN AN
ISOLATED SNOW SQUALL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE BIG STORM WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS REACHING 35-40 MPH MOST PLACES WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD. AFTER CRESTING MIDDAY...THEY WILL
DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON/TEENS ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND. ALL TIMES ARE FROM 6 PM THROUGH 11AM
SATURDAY.
TONIGHT...THERE STILL COULD SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT. OTHERWISE...THE SKY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CLEAR BUT THE WIND WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DIVE TO NEAR ZERO IN THE CAPITAL REGION...5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AT TIMES.
THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES HAS PROMPTED
US TO CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES EVERYWHERE TONIGHT EXCEPT WIND
CHILL WARNINGS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.
THE WIND WILL BE RESULT OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING IN THE GULF
OF MAINE. THE LOW WILL ONLY SLOW FURTHER MOVE AWAY ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE A MAINLY SUNNY BUT WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. THE
WIND WILL ABATE A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES
ONLY RECOVER TO 20 AT BEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...ONLY SINGLE NUMBERS OVER
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...INCLUDING MOST OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT A WEAK
CLIPPER WILL WORK ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE CLOUDS
AND THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT. THE APPROACHING FRONT
WILL SERVE TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING QUITE AS LOW AS THEY
WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE. STILL LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO
THEN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10
CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEARLY EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST TRENDS FOR THE MONDAY EVENT
HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN.
FOR SUNDAY...FEBRUARY 1ST...ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WE HAVE
BEEN DISCUSSING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS STILL PROGGED TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD AND EITHER STALL OR BECOME ILL-DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY.
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT DOES DIFFER AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH RECENT
TENDENCIES PLACING IT ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR. THEN
WE QUICKLY SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE APPROACHING OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM.
THE STRONG PC ANOMALY WAS ASHORE ALONG BRITISH COLUMBIA AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PER THE H2O VAPOR
ANALYSIS THIS FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO MERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPAWN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BETWEEN I70-I80.
THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE QPF
FIELDS AND 2D-FGEN FIELDS LINE UP MAINLY SOUTH OF I90 ON MONDAY
WHERE AN ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED. ENSEMBLE DATA AND
PLUMES NOW SUGGEST MORE THAN HALF THE MEMBERS ARE FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT...THE LATEST 30/06Z NAM12 IS FURTHER NORTH
AS WELL WITH MODERATE QPF VALUES. WE WILL REINTRODUCE THIS
POTENTIAL MILLER TYPE B EVENT INTO THE HWO AT THIS TIME. THERMAL
PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT ONLY COLD BUT WILL OFFER A
CHALLENGE WITH RESPECT TO LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS. THE HIGHER RATIOS
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I90 WHERE VALUES COULD BE
APPROACHING 20:1. STILL PLENTY OF TIME AS THIS PV ANOMALY WILL BE
ENTERING THE UPPER AIR NETWORK WHICH SHOULD...HOPEFULLY...RESOLVE
AND NARROW THE SOLUTIONS. AS AN FYI...EVALUATING THE LATEST CIPS
GUIDANCE...MANY OF THE MATCHES DO BRING AN ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
REGION.
THIS WAVE DEPARTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY EVENING AS 1030MB SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE
NORTHEAST. AS H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW -20C...AND
POTENTIAL FOR A FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
A VERY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCATIONS ATTEMPT TO APPROACH RECORD LOWS.
THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN TRANQUIL YET CHILLY. NEXT ARCTIC
IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS ARCTIC FRONTAL AND
TRACK OF A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE COULD MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING
COASTAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THIS WAVE OFFSHORE...THERE ARE A FEW OUTLYING
MEMBERS THAT KEEP THIS WAVE CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIODS/OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. DUE TO THIS...VISIBILITIES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST
AS WE WILL OBSERVE MVFR TO IFR IN SHORT/BRIEF BURSTS. AT THE
MINIMUM...CIGS WILL BE SOLIDLY IN MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS HINT A BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THEREAFTER...DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH RESPECT TO DIMINISHING
TRENDS IN THE SNOW AND LOW CIGS. THEN A WIND SHIFT WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASE OF MAGNITUDES WHERE SOME BLOWING SNOW COULD RESULT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS IN KALB. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
FRIDAY MORNING WITH 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL RANGE
FROM 1-3 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...3-6 INCHES
FURTHER NORTH.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.
THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1244 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
TONIGHT...AND THEN MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. FRIGID
TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST...SNOW WAS WORKING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
NOW...MORE LIKE PERIODS OF SNOW WITH ELEMENTS OF MODERATE
SNOW...BACKING OFF TO FLURRIES. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED RIGHT ON
TRACK WITH US INCLUDING OVERNIGHT LOWS SO VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE WITH
THIS UPDATE.
LOW PRESSURE WAS NEAR WATERTOWN NY HEADING EAST AND RESPONSIBLE FOR
THIS LATEST BOUT OF SNOW. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD...AND WILL START TO TRANSITION TO A SECONDARY LOW OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND THE NEW 00Z NAM BOTH SHOW A MINIMUM IN
PRECIP OVERNIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND
SARATOGA AREA...THANKS TO THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW UPSLOPING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
BECAUSE OF THIS...JUST ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO WILL FALL IN THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH UP TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
BY DAYBREAK.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUED UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES UNTIL NOON FOR SCHOHARIE COUNTY...THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION...NRN TACONICS...SRN VT...AND THE NRN
BERKSHIRES.
CONTINUING THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WHERE THE
LATEST 09Z SREF PLUME GIVES KALB MEAN AMOUNTS 0.20-0.25" OF
QPF...THE 12Z GEFS PLUME IS AROUND 0.30". THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
RANGES FROM 0.25-0.35". AGAIN...USING A 13-15:1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS YIELD AROUND 4". THE HIGHEST TALLIES MAY BE ALONG THE SE
FOOTHILLS OF THE SRN DACKS WHERE A HALF INCH OF QPF MAY YIELD SOME
5-7" AMOUNTS. THE PRIMARY SFC LOW WEAKENS OVER NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT...AND SHORT-WAVE ENERGY SHIFTS TO THE COAST...WHERE A SFC LOW
WILL LIKELY SPIN UP NEAR LONG ISLAND. THE SNOW MAY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY A BIT OVER THE NRN TACONICS...BERKS...AND SRN GREENS. IN
A GENERAL SENSE...THIS LOOKS LIKE A 2-6" SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT 2-4" OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON...SRN TACONICS...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT. IT SHOULD BE
STRESSED THAT LOCATIONS LIKE THE CAPITAL REGION...MAY BE ON THE
LOWER END OF THE RANGE...BUT THERE COULD BE A SOCIETAL IMPACT ON
THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS...AND SOME VERY
SLIPPERY SURFACES. THE LATEST WPC SNOW GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY PROBABILITY OF 4 INCHES OR GREATER OF SNOWFALL BASICALLY
FROM ALBANY/THE MOHAWK VALLEY/NRN BERKS NORTHWARD BTWN 00Z/FRI TO
00Z/SAT.
THE H850 CIRCULATION MOVES EAST OF BOSTON BY 00Z/SAT...COLDER AIR
WRAPS INTO THE REGION WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT DIPPING SOUTH. H850
TEMPS DROP TO -12C TO -17C FROM NW TO SE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
U20S TO L30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NW AT 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. THE STRONGER
COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT.
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE COASTAL WAVE QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST
AND THE ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS SOUTH. THE LOW-LEVEL SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC CYCLONE...AND THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY...ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND SE CANADA. WIND CHILLS WILL PLUMMET TO -10 TO -30
DEGREES BELOW ZERO WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND OR
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER
THE SRN DACKS REGION. ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE MET MOS
VALUES WERE MUCH COLDER THAN THE MAV MOS HERE. THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY ABATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING
IN...BUT IT WILL BE FRIGID WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER CLIPPER AND ARCTIC FRONT DIVES SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS MORE MOISTURE STARVED. THE THREAT FOR SCT SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND EAST AND
ZERO TO 10 BELOW TO THE NORTH. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR
LESS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE CLIPPER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD MARKED BY VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...SOME 5 TO
25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT BEGINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS COAST WILL CONTINUE A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW...AND PROVIDE US
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PRIMARILY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST IN RECENT MEMORY...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SOUTH AND
VALLEYS...TO AROUND 20 BELOW IN THE ADIRONDACKS. WE COULD BE
FLIRTING WITH RECORDS AT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOME SUNSHINE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES...BUT THEY WILL STILL BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.
A REINFORCING COLD SURGE ON THURSDAY WILL ENSURE THAT THE DEEP
FREEZE CONTINUES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE
LOW SIDE AS LONG AS THE MONDAY STORM STAYS WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIODS/OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. DUE TO THIS...VISIBILITIES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST
AS WE WILL OBSERVE MVFR TO IFR IN SHORT/BRIEF BURSTS. AT THE
MINIMUM...CIGS WILL BE SOLIDLY IN MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS HINT A BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THEREAFTER...DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH RESPECT TO DIMINISHING
TRENDS IN THE SNOW AND LOW CIGS. THEN A WIND SHIFT WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASE OF MAGNITUDES WHERE SOME BLOWING SNOW COULD RESULT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS IN KALB. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
FRIDAY MORNING WITH 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20KTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
HYDRO SERVICE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 6 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING WITH
GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.
THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ047>054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
033-038>043-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1220 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
TONIGHT...AND THEN MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. FRIGID
TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST...SNOW WAS WORKING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
NOW...MORE LIKE PERIODS OF SNOW WITH ELEMENTS OF MODERATE
SNOW...BACKING OFF TO FLURRIES. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED RIGHT ON
TRACK WITH US INCLUDING OVERNIGHT LOWS SO VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE WITH
THIS UPDATE.
LOW PRESSURE WAS NEAR WATERTOWN NY HEADING EAST AND RESPONSIBLE FOR
THIS LATEST BOUT OF SNOW. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD...AND WILL START TO TRANSITION TO A SECONDARY LOW OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND THE NEW 00Z NAM BOTH SHOW A MINIMUM IN
PRECIP OVERNIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND
SARATOGA AREA...THANKS TO THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW UPSLOPING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
BECAUSE OF THIS...JUST ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO WILL FALL IN THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH UP TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
BY DAYBREAK.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUED UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES UNTIL NOON FOR SCHOHARIE COUNTY...THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION...NRN TACONICS...SRN VT...AND THE NRN
BERKSHIRES.
CONTINUING THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WHERE THE
LATEST 09Z SREF PLUME GIVES KALB MEAN AMOUNTS 0.20-0.25" OF
QPF...THE 12Z GEFS PLUME IS AROUND 0.30". THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
RANGES FROM 0.25-0.35". AGAIN...USING A 13-15:1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS YIELD AROUND 4". THE HIGHEST TALLIES MAY BE ALONG THE SE
FOOTHILLS OF THE SRN DACKS WHERE A HALF INCH OF QPF MAY YIELD SOME
5-7" AMOUNTS. THE PRIMARY SFC LOW WEAKENS OVER NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT...AND SHORT-WAVE ENERGY SHIFTS TO THE COAST...WHERE A SFC LOW
WILL LIKELY SPIN UP NEAR LONG ISLAND. THE SNOW MAY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY A BIT OVER THE NRN TACONICS...BERKS...AND SRN GREENS. IN
A GENERAL SENSE...THIS LOOKS LIKE A 2-6" SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT 2-4" OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON...SRN TACONICS...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT. IT SHOULD BE
STRESSED THAT LOCATIONS LIKE THE CAPITAL REGION...MAY BE ON THE
LOWER END OF THE RANGE...BUT THERE COULD BE A SOCIETAL IMPACT ON
THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS...AND SOME VERY
SLIPPERY SURFACES. THE LATEST WPC SNOW GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY PROBABILITY OF 4 INCHES OR GREATER OF SNOWFALL BASICALLY
FROM ALBANY/THE MOHAWK VALLEY/NRN BERKS NORTHWARD BTWN 00Z/FRI TO
00Z/SAT.
THE H850 CIRCULATION MOVES EAST OF BOSTON BY 00Z/SAT...COLDER AIR
WRAPS INTO THE REGION WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT DIPPING SOUTH. H850
TEMPS DROP TO -12C TO -17C FROM NW TO SE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
U20S TO L30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NW AT 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. THE STRONGER
COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT.
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE COASTAL WAVE QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST
AND THE ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS SOUTH. THE LOW-LEVEL SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC CYCLONE...AND THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY...ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND SE CANADA. WIND CHILLS WILL PLUMMET TO -10 TO -30
DEGREES BELOW ZERO WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND OR
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER
THE SRN DACKS REGION. ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE MET MOS
VALUES WERE MUCH COLDER THAN THE MAV MOS HERE. THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY ABATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING
IN...BUT IT WILL BE FRIGID WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER CLIPPER AND ARCTIC FRONT DIVES SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS MORE MOISTURE STARVED. THE THREAT FOR SCT SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND EAST AND
ZERO TO 10 BELOW TO THE NORTH. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR
LESS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE CLIPPER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD MARKED BY VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...SOME 5 TO
25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT BEGINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS COAST WILL CONTINUE A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW...AND PROVIDE US
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PRIMARILY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST IN RECENT MEMORY...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SOUTH AND
VALLEYS...TO AROUND 20 BELOW IN THE ADIRONDACKS. WE COULD BE
FLIRTING WITH RECORDS AT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOME SUNSHINE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES...BUT THEY WILL STILL BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.
A REINFORCING COLD SURGE ON THURSDAY WILL ENSURE THAT THE DEEP
FREEZE CONTINUES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE
LOW SIDE AS LONG AS THE MONDAY STORM STAYS WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL SITES...BUT THIS ISN/T
EXPECT TO LAST MUCH LONGER. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING. KENX
RADAR ALREADY SHOWS RETURNS CLOSE TO THE REGION...AND AS LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN UP...SNOW WILL BEGIN BY 03Z-04Z
AT THE LATEST. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
IFR CONDITIONS...AND PERHAPS LIFR AT TIMES. WHILE STEADY SNOW WILL
END BY AROUND DAYBREAK...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
RETURN FOR THE VALLEY SITES BY AFTN...ALTHOUGH KPSF MAY SEE
LINGERING MVFR CIGS INTO THE AFTN HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KTS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL
START TO SWITCH TO THE W-SW AROUND DAYBREAK AND BECOME NW BEHIND
THE STORM/S COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE PASSING BETWEEN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT FOR THE AFTN...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
HYDRO SERVICE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 6 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING WITH
GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.
THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ047>054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
033-038>043-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
329 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
High pressure will build across central and southeast Illinois today
from the northwest. This Canadian high will bring cooler air into
the area than yesterday, but the fact that winds will be much
lighter and at least partly sunny skies are anticipated should make
for a decent late January day. The only real wild card today from
what should be a quiet weather day is how much cloud cover there
will be. Skies across the area are rapidly clearing from the
northwest as the high builds in, but there are still significant
patches of clouds upstream beneath the ridge axis across the upper
Midwest. For now, plan to be optimistic with cloud cover given the
clearing that has taken place so far, and the fact that forecast
soundings do not suggest significant low level moisture trapped
beneath the subsidence inversion.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
00Z Jan 30th forecast model suite continues to trend further north
with ECMWF model the further north and much further north than its
model runs a few runs ago. Concensus of models has heaviest snow
band to set up over our northern counties north of a Springfield to
Paris line during Saturday night and Sunday where 6-8 inches of snow
and locally higher amounts possible. Between 3-5 inches of snow
south of I-70 in southeast IL where mix precipitation to occur Sat
afternoon/evening before changing to all snow by overnight Sat night
into Sunday. Will issue another SPS to address the potential of several
inches of snow accumulations Saturday night and Sunday especially
from I-72 north. A winter storm watch may eventually be needed
Saturday night and Sunday especially over northern counties.
1037 mb high pressure over MN into the central plains will drift
east into the Ohio river valley by midnight tonight and into the mid
Atlantic States Sat morning and continue dry weather over central
and eastern IL. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 20s with a few
upper teens from Champaign and Paris northeast.
Low pressure organizing in the sw states to deepen surface low
pressure ne into the central Ohio river valley by sunset Sunday.
This to spread mixed precipitation into central IL during Sat
afternoon with areas from Lincoln south mainly light rain and mix of
light rain/snow northern counties with little or no snow
accumulations during daytime hours Sat. Highs Sat in the lower 40s,
with upper 30s from I-74 north. Brunt of snow and moderate at times
to develop during Saturday night into Sunday with mix of rain/snow
sw counties Sat evening. Models have trended heavier with qpf close
to three quarter inches and snowfall amounts especially north of
I-70. NE winds to veer north and increase during day Sunday from nw
to se and temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday especially in
afternoon with some blowing snow developing by Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening. Light snow to diminish from the west during Sunday
night as low pressure pulls away from IL.
Canadian high pressure drifts down into IL from western Canadian Rockies
by Monday afternoon returning dry but cold weather as skies become
partly to mostly sunny. Highs Monday only in upper teens and lower
20s Monday due to expected snow pack. Temps briefly climb Tue into
low to mid 30s with breezy ssw winds ahead of clipper system that
moves into Great Lakes region Tue night and swings a cold front se
through IL Wed bringing chances of light snow and flurries. Even
colder air to follow this weather system for from Wed night through
Friday with lows possibly getting below zero Thu night after highs
Thu in mid to upper teens over central IL with lower 20s south of
I-70.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
Overcast conditions remain in place across central Illinois late
this evening, although ceilings have improved into the VFR
category at all terminals. Satellite imagery continues to show
clearing across Iowa/Missouri working its way southeastward. Based
on satellite loops and the latest HRRR forecast, it appears skies
will begin to clear at KPIA by 08z, then further east to KCMI by
around 12z. Winds will remain gusty from the northwest early in
the period, but will drop to less than 10kt toward dawn, then will
go light/variable on Friday as high pressure builds into the area.
Once the overnight cloud cover departs, only SCT mid/high clouds
will be noted through 06z Sat.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
228 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...
234 PM CST
THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE NOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...DROVE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND HAS SINCE CONTINUED TO
PRODUCING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE NOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO RACE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AND AS IT DOES SO...IT COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW FLURRIES...SO I HAVE ADDED THE MENTION TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...AND AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BEGINS TO BACK NORTHERLY...IT APPEARS
THAT SOME BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE AROUND 5,000
FEET...AND DUE TO THE COLD LOWER LEVEL ATMOSPHERE...THIS SHOULD BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO RESIDE WELL INTO THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE.
THEREFORE...SOME EFFICIENT SNOWFALL LOOKS TO RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF PORTER COUNTY
INDIANA IN MY AREA...WHERE SOME ISOLATED AREAS COULD GET A COUPLE
INCHES. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A AN
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY.
A BRIEF WARMING TREND LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...SETTING UP A
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
328 PM CST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE INCREASING
POTENTIAL OF A DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVENT ACROSS AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF MY AREA SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS DURING
THIS PERIOD. OVERALL...THE MAIN DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS NOW
EJECTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE MAIN COMPLEXITIES WITH THIS SYSTEM...IS IF AND
HOW MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...EMANATING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH...GETS TAPPED INTO BY THIS DIGGING SYSTEM.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FLIPPED FLOPPED A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL GET
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT APPEARS ONE OF THE MAIN KEYS THAT
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOWFALL ENDS UP GETTING
ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL BE THE TIMING OF COLDER AIRMASS/COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AHEAD OF A STOUT 1044
MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD SET UP A GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY
RIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF MY CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RAMP UP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT IN THE COLD AIR ACROSS
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS
THIS SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS BY
SATURDAY EVENING...AND MAY END UP IMPACTING MOST OF MY AREA TO SOME
DEGREE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS COULD SET UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION AXIS TRIES TO DEVELOP WITH THE
925-850 MB LAYER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD AIRMASS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON WHERE
EXACTLY THIS ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING SETS UP IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...GIVEN THIS SYSTEM IS 60+ HOURS AWAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOST
AREAS MAY SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE
POTENTIAL OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.
THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH THIS EVENT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. AS THE COLDER AIRMASS BEGINS TO SPILL
SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE COLDER AIRMASS...FEATURING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE INVERSION HEIGHTS REACHING UP AROUND 5-6,000 FEET...WHICH
SHOULD EXTEND WELL INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THEREFORE...WE CANT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME...I HAVE REMAINED A BIT
CONSERVATIVE ON SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...MAINLY DUE
TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AND
ACTIVE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW
ADDITIONAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WITH SNOW CHANCES AND REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD AIR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL...IT APPEARS
THAT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF VERY COLD CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BE IN THE
WORKS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF A
SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA FROM THE HIGH LATITUDES OF
CANADA.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL WORK IN
CONCERT TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...LIKELY ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. HAVE SEEN A FEW BRIEF
VSBY REDUCTIONS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS IN SE WISCONSIN AND CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE THE SAME COULD OCCUR INTO OUR TERMINALS...THOUGH ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. LOWER END VFR CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT AT SOME POINT FRIDAY MORNING AND NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY
BACK TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT WITH
VERY LIGHT SPEEDS.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR DURING THE NIGHT. WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR. AT LEAST MVFR CIGS LIKELY.
NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. WEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
230 AM CST
A PROGRESSIVE...ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR LAKE MICHIGAN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER THE LAKE
AND WILL LET THE GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS EXPIRE AT
300 AM. HOWEVER...WITH LAKE MICHIGAN STILL UNDER A RELATIVELY
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
FOR BOTH THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS ARE STILL ARND 30
KT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD DROP OFF TO 10-15KT BY MID DAY.
RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION FROM THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
KEEP WAVES ABOVE 4 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RELATIVELY MILD CONDITONS WILL SET UP...BUT THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY
SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES SATUDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NELY WINDS OF 25-30 KT WILL BEGIN FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-
LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1135 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
Clouds continue to blanket central Illinois early this evening:
however, quite a bit of clearing is developing upstream across
Minnesota into far northern Iowa. This clearing is occurring within
the subsident region behind a short-wave trough noted on water
vapor imagery over Lake Superior/Wisconsin. As this wave tracks
into Michigan later tonight, the clearing will develop further
southeastward into portions of central Illinois after midnight.
HRRR continues to suggest a gradual dissipation of the cloud cover
overnight, while the NAM holds on to the clouds right through
Friday. Based on latest satellite loop, think the NAM is too
aggressive with its low-level moisture so will trend toward the
HRRR for the short-term forecast. Satellite timing tools continue
to indicate at least partial clearing arriving northwest of the
Illinois River by 06-07z, then further east and south across most
of the area by dawn. Some locations near the Indiana border and
along/south of I-70 may stay overcast until Friday morning. Have
updated sky grids to better reflect current and expected trends.
Have also updated hourly temps to slow the initial fall due to the
lingering cloud cover this evening. Once skies begin to clear,
temps will drop off steadily after midnight, with lows ranging
from the teens northwest of the Illinois River to the middle 20s
along/south of I-70 where clouds will persist longest.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
Forecast challenge for tonight will be whether or not any partial
clearing will occur and the affect on low temperatures. The latest
satellite loop early this afternoon indicated an area of partly
cloudy skies in central/southern MN into central IA behind a
departing shortwave trough. This area was starting to fill in with a
few more clouds, though, the past hour. The latest guidance from the
RAP, HRRR and NAM all indicate that moisture in the lowest 100 mb
should stay high enough overnight for low clouds to persist until
Friday morning. Breaks in the clouds may occur at times late this
evening, but they shouldn`t low enough to impact low temperatures.
As a result will go with lows in the 20-25 range across all of
central and southeast IL.
Patches of drizzle/flurries may linger in parts of central Illinois
early this evening. However, this will have very small areal
coverage and will have little or no impact, so will not include in
the forecast for tonight.
As the low pressure center moves through the eastern Great Lakes
late this evening, the pressure gradient should loosen up, resulting
in gradually diminishing winds in central Illinois early tonight,
and in eastern Illinois by daybreak.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
Models have come into better agreement with the main focus for this
forecast, this weekend winter weather system. The GFS and ECMWF both
look very similar with location of the heaviest snowfall Sat night
through Sun. Only differences in the those two models is the timing
and track of the low press area as it moves northeast across the
southern Miss valley. Precip will begin to spread into the western
parts of the CWA Sat afternoon, but temps will be warm enough for
most of the pcpn to be either rain, or a mix of rain or snow. No
accumulations are expected during the afternoon due to the warm
temps. The major part of the snow will arrive late Sat night, after
midnight, through some light accumulations are possible Sat evening.
After midnight, the snow is expected to become moderate with rates
approaching 1/2 inch per hour. The snow will be during the
overrunning period of the system as it begins to lift out of the
southern plains. With the upper level part of the system being just
an open trough/wave, a heavy deformation area of snow will likely
not setup on the back side of the low pressure area. However, snow
will continue Sun afternoon through Sun evening, with accumulations
being on the lighter side. Preliminary indications are that snowfall
totals from Sat evening through Sun night will be in the 4.5 to 6
inch range. There is still some uncertainty with these amounts as
the models are just now coming into agreement and some shift south
or north with the track is still possible. Given the longer duration
of the snowfall, it does not meet criteria for a watch at this time,
so no headlines will be issued. A later forecast shift may decide to
issue one if any changes occur with the model forecasts.
Beyond this system this weekend, conditions will be relatively dry,
except for Tue night when another chance of snow is possible from a
system coming down from the northwest. Once this system pushes
through, temps will drop and become well below normal for Wed
through Thur.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
Overcast conditions remain in place across central Illinois late
this evening, although ceilings have improved into the VFR
category at all terminals. Satellite imagery continues to show
clearing across Iowa/Missouri working its way southeastward. Based
on satellite loops and the latest HRRR forecast, it appears skies
will begin to clear at KPIA by 08z, then further east to KCMI by
around 12z. Winds will remain gusty from the northwest early in
the period, but will drop to less than 10kt toward dawn, then will
go light/variable on Friday as high pressure builds into the area.
Once the overnight cloud cover departs, only SCT mid/high clouds
will be noted through 06z Sat.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1130 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH LINGERING STRATUS DECK
AND TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. LEANED
TOWARD THE NAM/RAP/HRRR FOR CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL RH THIS
EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE INVERSION CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AND POTENTIALLY TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS OVER
CENTRAL IOWA DURING MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT BREAK IN
THE CLOUD DECK OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AS OF 21Z...AND THE HRRR HAS SOMEWHAT PICKED UP ON THIS TREND AND
SLOWLY ERODES THE STRATUS BY AROUND 05Z ACROSS IOWA/MINNESOTA. HAVE
STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE NORTHEAST
SLOWEST TO CLEAR OUT.
CAA CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDES INTO NORTHERN IOWA FRIDAY MORNING AND FINALLY ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. WITH THE TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...LEANED TOWARD THE RAP FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS IT SEEMED
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TEMP AND CLOUD COVER TRENDS.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE STATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONGER TERM TOMORROW MORNING WITH FRIDAY BEING THE BEST DAY OUT OF
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BY LATER
IN THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES AND READINGS ONCE
AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP ON
FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM OVERNIGHT. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT THE BULK OF
THE SYSTEM WILL COME IN LATER PERIODS.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO A SHORTWAVE TOPPING
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A VERY MOIST UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE 12Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO CLUSTER AROUND A SOLUTION OF DROPPING THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST WITH SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BRING THE MOISTURE PLUME
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT IOWA...AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO. INITIALLY...A SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THRU THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE..INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA ON SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION TO
SNOW IS LIKELY BY I80 OR HWY30 AS COLDER AIR IS ENCOUNTERED WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. FORCING WILL SUSTAIN AND INCREASE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN IOWA. ANY RAIN IN THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE EVENING AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING FROM APPROACHING SOUTHEAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP SNOW TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY.
EVENTUALLY...THE FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH THE SNOW ENDING. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ON NORTHERN SIDE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THEREFORE THE SNOW
AMOUNTS THAT ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...THE GRADIENT
APPEARS NEAR THE I80 CORRIDOR ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE WITH
SUBSEQUENT INFORMATION. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THIS EVENT...IT
DOESNT APPEAR WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET...ALTHOUGH THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SNOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BOOST US INTO
WARNING. GIVEN THE CHANGES IN MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS...WILL WAIT ON ANY HEADLINES BUT BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT MORE IN
THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS. AMOUNTS OF AROUND 6 INCHES SEEM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MO BORDER WITH 2-5 IN CENTRAL IOWA...AND AN INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
CIGS SCATTERING ACROSS CNTRL IA AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES THOUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. KOTM WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS
INITIALLY THEN BECOME VFR BY 08Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...DONAVON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
356 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
Recent IR satellite and water vapor imagery showing high level
moisture/clouds spreading eastward across KS from the upper
trough in the southwest CONUS. Although initially thin...the clouds
will steadily but slowly thicken west to east across the cwa today
into this evening before becoming totally overcast tonight.
However...should still see some insolation combining with veering
low level flow to the south by afternoon and warm advection through
850 mb to push highs into the middle to upper 40s.
Clouds...some mixing and continued warm air advection tonight would
suggest nearly steady or even slightly rising temperatures in some
areas...however expect some evaporative cooling to occur so only
tweaked lows up slightly into the lower 30s. Forecast soundings
still showing freeze levels a little high for much snow to make it
to the ground before melting...but will keep it across the west and
north and go only rain chances south (east central) for now. Either
way...higher pops and no snow accumulation still in order across the
cwa overnight with rainfall amounts generally under a tenth of an
inch...especially east.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
Saturday through Saturday Night, An upper level trough across the
southwestern US will slowly move east into far west TX, while an
upper level trough embedded within the northern stream of the mid
and upper level jet digs southeast across the northern and central
high plains. Slightly warmer boundary layer air parcels will
advect northward across the CWA through he morning hours of
Saturday. Surface temperatures will warm from the lower to mid 30s
at 12Z Saturday into the mid and upper 30s by noon. Forecast
soundings show the depth of the warmer boundary layer airmass to
be warm enough to change the mix of rain and snow across much of
the CWA over to periods of light rain through the mid and late
morning hours of Saturday. Most of the CWA will see light rain
through the afternoon hours into the mid and late evening hours.
After midnight, the northern stream H5 trough will dig southeast
across the central plains bringing cooler air at both the surface
and 850mb. The light rain will begin to mix with snow and will
change over to light snow during the early morning hours of
Sunday. Most of the stronger ascent and frontogenetical forcing
will shift northeast of the CWA, thus any snow accumulations will
be light, with a dusting or less. The best chance of seeing
measurable snowfall will be across the northern counties of the
CWA where an inch of snow may fall late Saturday evening into
Sunday Morning. Some areas along the NE border may get over an
inch of snowfall, perhaps near 2 inches in northern Brown County.
Most areas should see about a half inch of rainfall with the eastern
counties receiving between one half and three quarters of an inch of
QPF. Once again the cold air in the low-levels will arrive too late
to see much in the way of snowfall. Overnight lows will drop into
the 20s across north central and northeast KS with lower to mid 30s
across east central KS.
Sunday through Sunday Night, the central plains H5 trough will
amplify On Sunday as it digs east-southeast across the mid MS
river valley. Portions of northern IL, northern IN and Northern OH
will see 6 to 8 inches of snowfall on Sunday. There may be some
left over flurries for very light snow during the morning hours of
Sunday across the eastern counties of the CWA. Strong low-level
CAA will only allow Highs to reach the mid 20s along the NE border
to the mid 30s across the southeast counties. North winds of 15 to
25 MPH with higher gusts will make it feel much colder on Sunday.
Any leftover moisture on area roadways may freeze causing slick
spots on area roadways Sunday morning.
Lows Sunday night will drop into the teens and perhaps some single
digits along the NE border.
Monday through Thursday, A longer wave length upper trough will
remain across the eastern US. Monday will continue to be cold as a
surface ridge of high pressure builds southeast across eastern KS.
Highs will only reach the lower to mid 30s. We`ll see a brief warm
up on Tuesday ahead of the next surge of cold air by mid week. Highs
on Tuesday will reach the mid to upper 40s. Wednesday another
strong cold front will move southward across the CWA. Highs on
Wednesday may occur during the morning hours, with temperatures
falling into the 20s by afternoon. Highs on Thursday will only
reach the mid 20s to lower 30s, though the ECMWF if much colder and
if it were to verify, highs may only reach the teens. An H5 trough
embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft will track southeast across
CO into OK and bring a chance of accumulating snowfall to western
and southern KS on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
Will continue with VFR conditions, though a few brief issues
possible. Some BR potential remains in the hours near 12Z, though
some wind persists on area obs and thickening high cloud arrives
near this time. HRRR visibility output has been too aggressive with
lowering values so far as well. Precip concern ramps up mainly
near MHK at the end of this forecast, but not convinced on
occurrence and intensity for inclusion.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1129 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
The shortwave that moved over the region will continue eastward into
the mid MS valley. In the wake of the departing system high pressure
will build in from the northwest overnight. Meanwhile the cloud
cover in place should gradually erode and trend eastward, which is
evident on the latest satellite loop. Winds will decrease this
evening as the pressure gradient weakens near the high center. Skies
will clear out after sunset allowing decent rational cooling to take
effect as the surface ridge slides across the area. Timing of the
ridge should place it directly bisecting the forecast area during
early morning hours, which should strengthen the nocturnal
inversion. Therefore, have went lower than guidance regarding
temperatures tonight, which drop into the upper 10s and lower 20s.
Due to the limited moisture in the boundary layer and soil do not
expect fog to develop although reduced visibilities or haze will be
possible. The stronger northwest flow aloft gets shunted off to the
east as the ridge builds in ahead of the system over the southwest
US. High pressure retreats allowing for return flow and increase in
mid to high level clouds. Advection is rather weak tomorrow so
expect high temperatures in the 40s like today although with much
less wind.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
By Friday evening, system moving out of the southwest starts to
bring rain into the area from the west. Temperatures remain near
steady in the 30s and are generally near or above freezing for
much of Friday night into Saturday. That being said, considering
that temperatures are below freezing above the surface, expect
that a mix of rain and snow will fall through the overnight hours.
Not expecting much to accumulate, but could bring some slick spots
on roads overnight.
By Saturday around noon, enough warm air is forecast to push back
northward to change precipitation back over to rain, save the
colder counties along the Nebraska border which are more likely
to see a rain/snow mix. Secondary upper wave dropping in from the
northwest starts to push colder temperatures back into eastern
Kansas, and the rain/snow mix shifts slowly southeast through the
evening. Some light accumulations are possible along the Nebraska
border in the afternoon. At this time, around 03z the freezing
mark is forecast to have shifted across the area and will change
precipitation back over to all snow. This could be bit aggressive
with the colder air, and the southeast counties may see a later
start to any falling snow. 06-12z have forecast 1-2 inches across
the northeast and eastern counties. As the colder air drives
southward through the day on Sunday, may see an additional inch or
so across the far east northeast as another weak wave moves across
those areas. Total amounts forecast are highest over Brown/Nemaha
counties with nearly 4 inches, but tapers to 1-2 inches along the I70
corridor. Overall, temperatures are so close to freezing and make
this a challenging forecast, as does the initial warm air
advection followed by the then stronger cold front and secondary
wave, so anticipate some adjustments to amounts as event draws
closer.
Sunday night as cold high pressure moves overhead, lows fall into
the teens. Highs on Monday should rise back into the 30s as
southerly winds and the high plains lee trof return. May make it
back up into the 40s Tuesday before the next cold front comes
through Tuesday night with another reinforcing shot late
Wednesday. Highs overall in the 30s with lows in the upper teens
to 20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
Will continue with VFR conditions, though a few brief issues
possible. Some BR potential remains in the hours near 12Z, though
some wind persists on area obs and thickening high cloud arrives
near this time. HRRR visibility output has been too aggressive with
lowering values so far as well. Precip concern ramps up mainly
near MHK at the end of this forecast, but not convinced on
occurrence and intensity for inclusion.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
IN THIS PERIOD. MODELS HAVE SETTLED SOMEWHAT AND NOW SUGGEST AT
LEAST OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD GET SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.
TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH NORTH
WINDS DECREASING AND EVEN SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WAS STILL RATHER EXTENSIVE AT 3 PM
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81. EXPECT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS AT LEAST ON THE WESTERN EDGE. LATEST RUNS OF
THE RAP AND NAM SUGGEST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER BASED ON 925 MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS. IF CLOUDS CAN AT LEAST SCATTER OUT LATER
TONIGHT AS EXPECTED...WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ON FRIDAY. WINDS MAY GET INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE 40S.
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SINKING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME COOLER
AIR THERE...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH SHOULD STAY MOSTLY NEAR
OR ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WOULD BE ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THAT PERIOD. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLDER AIR. IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CAN DROP BELOW FREEZING...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN.
BEST DYNAMICS WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA SATURDAY...BUT USING A
COMBINATION OF RECENT RUNS OF THE SREF...GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTS
THAT AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA WILL SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SEEMED TO COLD AND THUS SEEMED TO
PRODUCE TOO MUCH SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
DARKNESS SETS IN...PCPN SHOULD TREND TOWARD ALL SNOW. A MODEST
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD TRACK OVER OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY
IN THE EVENING. DETAILS ON PCPN TYPE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR ACTUAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME.
IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY LIFT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN CASE THE SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A BIT. CURRENT THINKING ON POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS...
AND THE KEY WORD IS POTENTIAL...IS FOR AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN TO OMAHA...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 3 TO 4 INCHES NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. THESE WOULD BE
TOTAL AMOUNTS FOR THE WHOLE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
FOR SUNDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
A BRIEF AND SMALL WARMUP MAY OCCUR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH...BUT IN GENERAL THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HAVE GONE WITH
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BEST POTENTIAL IS DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. AMOUNTS WOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS THE WAY THINGS LOOK
RIGHT NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
THE BAND OF LOW CLOUDS HAS THINNED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH JUST A
FEW SCT FL025 LEFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY
LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG OR HAZE. THE WINDS ALOFT ARE A LITTLE MORE
MIXED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...BUT DROP OFF AT KOFK AND KLNK SO
MAY NEED TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY AT
10 TO 15KT AND A LITTLE STRONG WIND GUSTS AT KOFK.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
301 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STEADY PROGRESS WITH THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND
OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD DRY PUNCH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS...AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST. THIS MORNING...THE
NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND THE LEFT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130KT 250MB
JET THAT WILL BE OVER OR NEAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...850MB
THETA-E VALUES FALL SHARPLY AND K INDICES GO NEGATIVE...BUT WITH THE
FRONT THERE IS WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE ON THE 295K SURFACE OF THE GFS
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. AS OF
THIS WRITING A FEW...FAINT ECHOES WERE NOTED ON THE KRAX WSR-88D
JUST EAST OF KGSO TOWARD KBUY...BUT BETTER SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE
OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD KETC...KFAY...AND KCTZ. PLAN TO
AT LEAST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF ABOUT U.S. 1...WITH A CHANCE IN SOME LOCATIONS TOWARD
INTERSTATE 95 WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT.
SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR IN GENERAL BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THE
NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND
EAST SUGGEST A PERIOD OF BROKEN STRATOCU OR SHALLOW CU DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND MODERATE VORTICITY
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. IN FACT...THE GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS NEAR KRDU IN PARTICULAR WOULD SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT...ALBEIT
SHALLOW...TO GET A PARCEL A LITTLE COLDER THAN -10C AND POSSIBLY
PROVIDE FOR VIRGA OR A SPRINKLE. WILL LEAVE THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
DRY...THOUGH SHOW A PERIOD OF GREATER CLOUD COVER FROM THE TRIANGLE
NORTH AND EAST DURING A PART OF THE AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
850MB WINDS OF 30 TO 35KT AND 925MB WINDS DIMINISHING FROM NEAR 40KT
EARLY THIS MORNING TO AROUND 30KT BY 18Z. PURE LIFT FROM THE GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS UP THE DRY ADIABAT WOULD SUGGEST WIND GUSTS ABOVE
30KT POSSIBLE...BUT THE NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LITTLE LOWER
GUSTS AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER FIELDS FROM ALL THREE MODELS ON BUFKIT
CAP GUSTS AT 30KT. WILL KEEP THE GUSTS TO 30KT OR 35MPH IN THE
FORECAST WHILE ANTICIPATING A SPOT OR THREE TO BE BRIEFLY A LITTLE
ABOVE THAT. THICKNESSES IN MANY PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FALL
DURING THE DAY...AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST A LEAN
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY. BASED ON CURRENT
READINGS AND EXPECTED SUN OFFSET BY COOL ADVECTION...WILL HAVE HIGHS
FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 AND SHADING TOWARD THE MET MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT STIR TO THE WIND THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AS 925MB WINDS REMAIN TO 35KT. SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DRY...AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST LOWS FROM
THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BE THE FORECAST
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT...19 TO 20 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO NEAR 25
TOWARD KFAY...CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE OF THE MET AND MAV MOS. ON
SATURDAY...925MB WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15KT BY 18Z...AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE
TEENS KNOTS WITH INITIAL MIXING BEFORE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A FLAT RIDGE AXIS ALOFT GETS CLOSE TO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AS SOME MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES INTO AND
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS...FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE SUCH THAT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY OCCUR FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT
SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER...MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE. -DJF
MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL GET KICKED EASTWARD...IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ON SUNDAY.
ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
MORNING.
NWP MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DEFINITE NORTHWARD SHIFT OBSERVED IN THE LATEST
00Z/30 MODEL ITERATION. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER/DELAYED
ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT IMPORTANTLY DISPLACES THE HEAVIER QPF NORTH OF THE
AREA.
AS SUCH...SUNDAY WILL END UP MOSTLY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY NIGHT...CUTTING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST MORNING MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT RACES
EASTWARD. ESTIMATED QPF AMOUNTS NOW LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50"
RANGE. WITH ONLY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT BEST EXPECTED ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW NOW DISPLACED NORTH OF
THE AREA...WILL KEEP OUT THE MENTION OF ANY THUNDER ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES.
EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES WARMING OVERNIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WAA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER
40S SOUTHEAST. -CBL
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WILL BE STRONG POST-FRONTAL DRY
COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BY THE
AFTERNOON AS CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IF PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES VERIFY AND WE DECOUPLE AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD... EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S. UNDER FULL COMPLIMENTS OF SUN...TEMPS TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM THROUGH THE 30S. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW/TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD FROM
MEXICO AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN A COMPLETE ROLE REVERSAL... THE GFS IS
NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC WITH BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EC NEARLY 24 HOURS
SLOWER...DELAYING UNTIL THURSDAY. GIVEN LATER TIMING OF ONSET OF
PRECIP...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CURRENTLY SUPPORT ALL RAIN. HOWEVER
IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...ANY PRECIP
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE OF THE
FROZEN VARIETY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP POPS AT SMALL CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERALL THROUGH THE 06Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO GUSTS AROUND 30KT BY LATE MORNING. WHILE
THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE
THAT...THE NAM AND RAP MODELS ARE LESS...AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SPEEDS TOP OUT AT ABOUT 30KT ON ALL THREE WHICH WILL BE THE CAP FOR
THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TAFS. SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING
AROUND DAYBREAK NORTHEAST OF KRWI AND TOWARD KFAY...AND HAVE NOTED
VCSH IN THE TAF AT KFAY WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER THIS
EARLY MORNING. WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION...BROKEN VFR
CLOUDS AND MAYBE A LITTLE VIRGA KRDU AND EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING DIURNALLY THOUGH EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS
AOA 30KT AT AND ABOVE 2000FT.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT
GRADUALLY LOWERING SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY BETTER CHANCES BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY
BREEZY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE VFR CONDITIONS THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT TODAY...OR TO AROUND 35 MPH...ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL...WITH THE
LOWEST GUIDANCE OF THE RAP SUGGESTING SOME DEW POINTS IN SINGLE
FIGURES LATE IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE GFS IS
HIGHER...AND THE NAM IS MORE OF A COMPROMISE...WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE. BY 00Z SATURDAY...THE GRIDDED FORECAST WILL
SHOW A DEW POINT NEAR 10F IN THE TRIAD...BUT EVEN THERE THE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS IN THE UPPER 20S PERCENT. BASED THOSE DEW
POINTS...RECENT RAIN...AND EARLIER FORECAST SERVICE COORDINATION...
WILL FOR NOW HIGHLIGHT THE ADVERSE CONDITIONS OF THE WIND GUSTS IN
THE DISCUSSION OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
FIRE WEATHER...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
102 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
TENNESSEE AS A COLD FRONT WORKS IT WAY THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST.
HAVE CONTINUE CHANCE POPS OVER BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS BOTH THE 3KM HRRR AND RAP
SHOWS RAIN CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH
WEAK WAA UNDERWAY AND HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UPWARD IN THESE
AREAS AS KHSE HAS RISEN TO 50 DEGREES WITH 54 DEGREES AT BEAUFORT.
MUCH COLDER WELL INLAND WITH 37 DEGREE AT KPGV. THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE WARMER AIR AND NO PRECIP TYPE
ISSUES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF COAST AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD WITH LINGERING CHC OF SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS...THEN CLEARING
AND DRYING WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING MID MORNING THROUGH AFTN.
DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS AND FULL INSOLATION WILL OFFSET DECREASING LOW
LVL THICKNESSES...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH MID-UPR 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A VERY CHANGEABLE
WEATHER PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERALL.
FOR FRI NIGHT...CONTINUING CAA WILL BRING CHILLY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO E NC. LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20 MOST
AREAS WITH SOME UPR 20S ON THE OBX. THE BRISK NW WIND WILL MAKE IT
FEEL IN THE TEENS.
FOR SAT...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH SUNNY SKIES
THOUGH COOL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS SUGGEST
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH SOME UPR 30S NORTHERN OBX.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND BACK WSW BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOW TEMPS
SAT NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY...AS INC WAA ALOFT WILL BRING AN INC AND
THICKENING OF CLOUDS. LOWS MAY BE REALIZED PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...
WITH READINGS IN THE UPR 20S LEVELING OFF OR RISING THEREAFTER.
FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES THOUGH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE CLOUDS DUE TO INC WAA ALOFT AS SW FLOW INC. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS WITH LOW/MID 50S
SOUTH TO UPR 40S NORTHERN TIER.
MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRES AREA
SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE
29/12Z ECM/GFS BRING LOW PRES NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER SOMETIME LATE SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING...WHILE THE
CMC BRINGS THE LOW OVER E NC. WILL SIDE WITH THE FURTHER NORTH
SOLN AND THEREFORE KEEP AREA IN MILD SW FLOW. NO PTYPE ISSUES AREA
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS FGEN/LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY HIGH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY
PRESENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. SHOWERS WILL END BY
MON AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE
OF COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO E NC WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. IT STILL APPEARS THE COLD AIR WILL BE CHASING PRECIP
THEREFORE LITTLE CHANCE OF WRAP AROUND SNOW...THOUGH CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A CHANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS FAR OUT AND
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TO SEE IF LOW TRACK SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
COLD NIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK TO THE
LOW 20S INLAND TO UPR 20S BEACHES WITH A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND
BRINGING WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS. TRANSIENT ARCTIC HIGH PRES
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS OF
1280-1290 M SUGGESTIVE OF HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 30S NORTH TO LOW
40S SOUTH UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
E NC LOOKS TO REMAIN IN VCNTY OF STORM TRACK MID WEEK AS LONG
RANGE MODELS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE GOM AND REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SOMETIME ON WED. TOO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE IF THE LOW WILL TRACK
INLAND OR OFF THE COAST...THOUGH IT APPEARS NOW THAT COLD AIR WILL
BE LOCKED TO THE WEST OF THE REGION PER ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FIELDS.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY CHANGE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE WEST AND NORTH TO WARRANT PLACING THE AREA IN A MONITORING
MODE FOR WINTER TYPE WEATHER. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR POURS IN
BY LATE WEEK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MORE WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000-5000 FEET THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...BUT QUICKLY BECOME
SCATTERED BY MID-MORNING AND CLEAR BY LATER IN THE DAY AS STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT WHICH WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG ISSUES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...THE GUSTY NW WINDS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH CLEAR SKIES. NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. LOW PRES AND COLD
FRONT MOVE AWAY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND IS
CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS STILL IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE...CURRENTLY
SEEING GUSTS TO 29 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY. ONCE STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSES OFFSHORE IN THE MID-MORNING HOURS...TIGHT GRADIENT LEADS TO
GUSTY NW/N WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
MAY UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND PERHAPS SOUNDS TO
GALE WARNINGS ON THE NEXT UPDATE.
BLEND OF NWPS AND PREVIOUS FCST USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
QUICKLY TO 5-7 FT SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...THEN 7-10 FT
OUTER PORTIONS ALL WATERS WITH INCREASING NW WINDS FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...GENERALLY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP FRI EVENING
BEHIND PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT. NW WINDS WILL INC WITH GALES
MOST LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THE EASTERN ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. THE GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE CRITERIA BY SAT MORNING THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALL DAY FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS.
HAVE USED MAINLY THE LOCAL SWAN/NWPS OUTPUT AS THIS TENDS TO
PERFORM BEST WITH NW WINDS. SEAS WILL PEAK 12-15 FOR THE OUTER
NRN/CENTRAL WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. SEAS
SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW 6 FT LATE SAT EVENING AS HIGH PRES
PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
SW BY LATE SAT NIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT. THE SW
WINDS WILL INC TO SCA LEVELS BY LATE SUN NIGHT AS A LOW PRES
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
ABRUPTLY TURN NW ON MON AND INC TO POTENTIAL GALES AS STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION POURS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ130.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/BTC/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1255 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM EST THURSDAY...
OVERNIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. LEAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE BAND OF RAIN/SLEET THIS AFTERNOON HAS LONG EXITED THE
REGION. FORCING WITH THE SFC FRONT MAY LEAD TO FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.
SFC FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT-
2AM...THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR 2-4 AM...AND EXIT OUR COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT MIXING...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN FALL TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE 850MB TROUGH. MIN TEMPS NEAR 30 NW TO UPPER 30S
SE. -WSS
A BLUSTERY/WINDY DAY UNDER CHILLY TEMPS IN STORE ON FRIDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE
TIGHT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND.
APPEARS GUSTS TOPPING 30-35 MPH AT TIMES MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD GIVEN DEEP MIXING AND AIDED VIA A FINAL
PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S GIVEN
HEATING OF VERY DRY AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM EST THURSDAY...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AS SURFACE HIGH APPROACHES FROM WEST BUT
WITH SURFACE HIGH STILL WEST OF APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SAT DO NOT THINK
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL COMPLETELY DECOUPLE...DESPITE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. CHANCE OF SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TOO
THOUGH. SO WILL NOT GO ANY COLDER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...WHICH IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THE LOW 20S MOST OF THE AREA.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THEN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAY
CONTINUE ITS INFLUENCE INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. WITH DRY LOW LEVELS
INITIALLY IT COULD TAKE PRECIP A WHILE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND ON
SUNDAY...STARTING IN WEST BY MIDDAY AND SPREADING TO THE EAST BY
LATE IN DAY OR EARLY EVENING. GIVEN DAYTIME START TO PRECIP AND WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEVELOPING BUT RATHER WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER
TENNESSEE VALLEY...NO CONCERNS ABOUT ANY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP DESPITE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING INTO DRY AIRMASS.
MODEL CONSENSUS DOES AGREE THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND QPF VALUES OF A QUARTER INCH OR HIGHER ARE
POSSIBLE...GFS WITH ALMOST A HALF AN INCH...BUT SEE NO CONCERNS AT
ALL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER OF SURFACE TEMPS TO SUPPORT ANY WINTRY PRECIP
EVEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN FACT IT MAY BE WARMING
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS YET HAVE NOT REFLECTED THAT ON
HOURLY TEMPS...BUT DO NOT HAVE IT DROPPING VERY MUCH EITHER SUNDAY
NIGHT. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE FROM GFS MUCH MILDER AND TRENDED UP A BIT
BUT NOT THAT HIGH AS OF YET. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST...BUT SEE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BE EVEN
MILDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...
MONDAY: MODEL TRENDS...AND NOW A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS...TO DEEPEN
AND SLOW THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT AS IT MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST COULD NOW MEAN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY...BUT
SHOULD PUSH EAST BY AFTERNOON. STILL GOING TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
EAST OF RALEIGH FOR SECOND HALF OF DAY IN CASE ADDITIONAL SLOWING
OCCURS. COLDER AIR THEN ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER TO FILTER IN BEHIND
SYSTEM...SO BUMPED UP HIGHS JUST A COUPLE DEGREES. MAY END UP BEING
NEARLY STEADY MUCH OF DAY AND DROPPING QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING BEING FOUR DAYS OUT...DECIDED
NOT TO SHOW THIS NON DIURNAL TREND JUST YET.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...1025 TO 1030 MB STRENGTH. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY PRECIP WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT MILDER TUES NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM IN THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.
MORE UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO PLAY BY MID WEEK AS NORTHER AND SOUTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM TRY TO PHASE...AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED...WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TAPS SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WHICH HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA. CURRENTLY THERE ARE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH 00Z ECMWF FASTER AND INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH THE
12Z GFS NOT UNTIL DURING THE DAY WED. MOST GFS ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE
IN THIS CAMP AS WELL. SO AM NOT INDICATING ANY CHANCE POPS UNTIL
DURING THE DAY WED AT THIS POINT. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IF
THIS COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT WINTRY MIX AT
THE ONSET BUT THINK THIS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND HAVE NO IMPACT. MOST
LIKELY PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN ONLY. DO HAVE SOME CHANCE RAIN AND
SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR WHEN TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY
WED...AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT BEHIND COLD FRONT...BUT THIS MAY
AMOUNT TO NO MORE THAN FLURRIES.
THEN BETTER CONFIDENCE IN BLUSTERY AND COLDER FOR THURSDAY BEHIND
FRONT...AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO GO COLDER THAN CURRENT FCST BUT
HEDGING SOMEWHAT FOR NOW SINCE GFS IN PARTICULAR TENDS TO HAVE A
COLD BIAS BEHIND FRONTS THAT FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERALL THROUGH THE 06Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO GUSTS AROUND 30KT BY LATE MORNING. WHILE
THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE
THAT...THE NAM AND RAP MODELS ARE LESS...AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SPEEDS TOP OUT AT ABOUT 30KT ON ALL THREE WHICH WILL BE THE CAP FOR
THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TAFS. SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING
AROUND DAYBREAK NORTHEAST OF KRWI AND TOWARD KFAY...AND HAVE NOTED
VCSH IN THE TAF AT KFAY WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER THIS
EARLY MORNING. WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION...BROKEN VFR
CLOUDS AND MAYBE A LITTLE VIRGA KRDU AND EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING DIURNALLY THOUGH EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS
AOA 30KT AT AND ABOVE 2000FT.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT
GRADUALLY LOWERING SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY BETTER CHANCES BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY
BREEZY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE VFR CONDITIONS THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS/JH
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND PUSH NORTH. THE HRRR IS
DOING A REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING THE CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS IN
THE 925MB MOISTURE FIELD. THE HRRR HAS THE AREA OF STRATUS
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 8 AM.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY ABOUT 11 AM. WINDS THEN SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FAVORED FOR
A NICE QUICK WARM UP BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND A WARM FRONT
NEARBY THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOW
50S. THE NORTH SHOULD REMAIN COOLER AS THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
EARLIER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE HOLD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN PERIOD
AND USED A MODEL BLEND WITH WPC QPF FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...00 UTC FRIDAY MODELS HAVE FLIPPED A BIT
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WHILE THE GEM HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF.
HOWEVER A BLEND STILL YIELDS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE...CLOSE TO WPC
FORECAST AND SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A 120KT UPPER LEVEL JET DROPPING
INTO MONTANA FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THIS SAME AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT TAPERING QUICKLY TO LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION FROM AROUND SHERWOOD TO RUGBY AND CARRINGTON.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. THERE ARE DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW...BUT WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS. THIS SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES WHICH INDUCES SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MONDAY REGION TUESDAY. AGAIN...WIDESPREAD
SNOWS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY SUB ADVISORY
CATEGORY SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER WOULD
RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THIS FAR OUT THINGS CAN
CERTAINLY CHANGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY TRENDED FARTHER NORTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS SUPPRESSED PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.
BEYOND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...THE GFS/GEM SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SNOWS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS A QUASI ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION LONG ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GIVING US
ONE LAST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WE MIGHT BREAK THE COLD AND ACTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS.
WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS WITH EACH SYSTEM BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BEGIN TO ADD UP. WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST SYSTEM AND INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOWS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK/KBIS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. KJMS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1228 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE FROM TEXAS SUNDAY...TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1124 PM EST THURSDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. SFC TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE
WARMER IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT WILL DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT HAS REACH THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. KFCX 88D SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES LATER
TONIGHT. INITIALLY EXPECTED SOME RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TRANSITION
OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUES FOR
WESTERN GREENBRIER INTO FRIDAY. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS OF 715 PM EST THURSDAY...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ALL OF THE ACTION YET TO COME A
LITTLE BIT LATER THIS EVENING. APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE WINDS HAVE COME
AROUND TO NW AND RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPS WILL BE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT WE WILL FALL
ABOUT 10F BELOW CURRENT VALUES FOR LOWS OF LOWER 30S EAST OF THE
RIDGE WITH LOW/MID 20S WEST.
THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
AROUND 9PM AND START TO KICK OFF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. CURRENT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON MESO MODELS WITH 2
TO 4 INCH ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THE NC MOUNTAINS ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR AROUND 2 INCHES.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY QUITE TAME BUT THAT WILL CHANGE BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND REALLY START TO BLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN THE WIND ADVISORIES START TO GO INTO EFFECT. GUSTS
OF 50 MPH TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE
GRAYSON HIGHLANDS...AND 40 MPH TO 50 MPH GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TOMORROW NIGHT.
PREVIOUS AFD...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THE UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW
MACHINE WILL INITIATE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. OUR LATEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS DO NOT DIFFER GREATLY FROM OUR PRIOR FORECAST. ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWS STILL LOOK PROMISING ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
IN THE TWO TO FOUR RANGE. HAVE INCREASED WESTERN PARTS OF
GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA COUNTIES INTO THE ONE TO TWO INCH
RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH READINGS AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL TONIGHT...FIRST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NORTH CAROLINA AND THE GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA MAY BE APPROACH GUSTS WITH SPEEDS AT
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUSTS WILL WEAKEN
JUST SLIGHTLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO AN EXPECTED BRIEF
INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END DURING
THE DAY...BUT LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20 TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MANY OF THESE READINGS OCCURRING EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. THE PIEDMONT WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EST THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS BEING ABLE TO
DECOUPLE WHILE BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
MORNING LOWS WITHOUT THE WIND WILL RANGE FROM 5F TO 15F ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 20F EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IF MIXING CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE
EAST...UPPER TEEN WIND CHILLS LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER
30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER WILL PUSH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING JUST BELOW
FREEZING.
COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL
THROW ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID WEST AND EVENTUALLY SPIN UP
A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALL THIS ENERGY/MOISTURE
WILL TRACK IN ZONAL FLOW AND INTO THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. THE
FIRST SIGNS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMES ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY.
THE TOUGH QUESTION NOW DEALS WITH P-TYPE. TEMPERATURES AND
THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM DEPARTING
HIGH...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB TEMPERATURES DOWN
BELOW FREEZING (NAM)...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS SNOW AND A
COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES STRONGER...MORE
WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA (GFS) CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW. BEING RIGHT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND
LIMITED DENDRITE GROWTH NOT SUPPORTING STAYING ALL SNOW...WE WILL
LEAN TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT SUNDAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WHEN THE
COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A WEDGE
LINGERING IN THE REGION...THEREFORE HIGHLY CONFIDENT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW...NOT A MIXTURE OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...
THE STRONG ADVERTISED ALBERTA CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY
THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR...NEAR BCB AND
ALREADY THROUGH LWB/BLF. VERY QUICKLY CIGS DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR
RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXED PCPN...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY
CHANGE TO SNOW WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. ALONG AND
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MOSTLY LOW
END VFR CIGS AT THIS HOUR. MODELS NOW DEPICTING A WAVE THAT WILL
RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH COULD SLIGHTLY DELAY ITS PROGRESS
INTO THE PIEDMONT AND FURTHERMORE BRING A WAVE OF -SHRA TO BCB/ROA
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. HAVE THUS INTRODUCED
THESE CHANGES TO THE TAFS...SLIGHTLY DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT INTO ROA/LYH/DAN AND ALSO INTRODUCING -SHRA TO BCB/ROA THAT
WERE NOT IN THE 00Z TAFS. UPSLOPE -SHSN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
ENHANCED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR VSBYS AND IFR-LIFR CIGS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFT 14Z WITH JUST FLURRIES OR OCCASIONAL
-SHSN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO HOLD MUCH OF THE DAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO THE EAST. EXPECT VFR CIGS AROUND 22Z
BLF/LWB/BCB...BECOMING MOSTLY SKC OR JUST SCT ALL SITES AFT 22Z.
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE STRONG...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WITH A 50KT NORTHWESTERLY LLJ OVER THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
BETWEEN THE ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH AND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
NORTHEAST U.S...30-40KT WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FRI. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE 15-25KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY EVEN INTO FRI
EVENING...BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW 25KTS FAIRLY QUICKLY AFT 02Z.
WINDS OVERALL WILL AVERAGE 10KTS LESS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WV SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND
SAT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES
WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
BCB/ROA/LYH...COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON...WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009>014-
016>020-022>024-032>035.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ002.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...DS/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1124 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE FROM TEXAS SUNDAY...TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1124 PM EST THURSDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. SFC TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE
WARMER IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT WILL DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT HAS REACH THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. KFCX 88D SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES LATER
TONIGHT. INITIALLY EXPECTED SOME RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TRANSITION
OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUES FOR
WESTERN GREENBRIER INTO FRIDAY. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS OF 715 PM EST THURSDAY...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ALL OF THE ACTION YET TO COME A
LITTLE BIT LATER THIS EVENING. APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE WINDS HAVE COME
AROUND TO NW AND RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPS WILL BE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT WE WILL FALL
ABOUT 10F BELOW CURRENT VALUES FOR LOWS OF LOWER 30S EAST OF THE
RIDGE WITH LOW/MID 20S WEST.
THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
AROUND 9PM AND START TO KICK OFF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. CURRENT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON MESO MODELS WITH 2
TO 4 INCH ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THE NC MOUNTAINS ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR AROUND 2 INCHES.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY QUITE TAME BUT THAT WILL CHANGE BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND REALLY START TO BLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN THE WIND ADVISORIES START TO GO INTO EFFECT. GUSTS
OF 50 MPH TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE
GRAYSON HIGHLANDS...AND 40 MPH TO 50 MPH GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TOMORROW NIGHT.
PREVIOUS AFD...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THE UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW
MACHINE WILL INITIATE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. OUR LATEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS DO NOT DIFFER GREATLY FROM OUR PRIOR FORECAST. ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWS STILL LOOK PROMISING ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
IN THE TWO TO FOUR RANGE. HAVE INCREASED WESTERN PARTS OF
GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA COUNTIES INTO THE ONE TO TWO INCH
RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH READINGS AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL TONIGHT...FIRST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NORTH CAROLINA AND THE GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA MAY BE APPROACH GUSTS WITH SPEEDS AT
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUSTS WILL WEAKEN
JUST SLIGHTLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO AN EXPECTED BRIEF
INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END DURING
THE DAY...BUT LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20 TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MANY OF THESE READINGS OCCURRING EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. THE PIEDMONT WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EST THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS BEING ABLE TO
DECOUPLE WHILE BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
MORNING LOWS WITHOUT THE WIND WILL RANGE FROM 5F TO 15F ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 20F EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IF MIXING CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE
EAST...UPPER TEEN WIND CHILLS LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER
30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER WILL PUSH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING JUST BELOW
FREEZING.
COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL
THROW ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID WEST AND EVENTUALLY SPIN UP
A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALL THIS ENERGY/MOISTURE
WILL TRACK IN ZONAL FLOW AND INTO THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. THE
FIRST SIGNS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMES ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY.
THE TOUGH QUESTION NOW DEALS WITH P-TYPE. TEMPERATURES AND
THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM DEPARTING
HIGH...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB TEMPERATURES DOWN
BELOW FREEZING (NAM)...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS SNOW AND A
COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES STRONGER...MORE
WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA (GFS) CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW. BEING RIGHT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND
LIMITED DENDRITE GROWTH NOT SUPPORTING STAYING ALL SNOW...WE WILL
LEAN TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT SUNDAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WHEN THE
COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A WEDGE
LINGERING IN THE REGION...THEREFORE HIGHLY CONFIDENT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW...NOT A MIXTURE OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST THURSDAY...
THE CWA REMAINS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER. THE SLEET BAND HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL NOT LONGER BE AN ISSUE. UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES...GENERALLY 04Z BLF/LWB TO 08Z DAN...EXPECT MOSTLY BKN-OVC
LOW END MVFR CIGS IN THE 035-060 RANGE WEST TO EAST AND VFR VSBYS.
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH -SHSN
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. BLF/LWB COULD
AT TIMES SEE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN THESE -SHSN ROUGHLY IN THE
08Z-14Z TIME FRAME...WITH FLURRIES CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. FOR BCB...SOME -SHSN ARE
EXPECTED...BUT NOT EXPECTING VSBYS TO BE REDUCED THERE. EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...SCT-BKN LOW END VFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS FOR ROA...BUT OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME SCT TO
SKC/VFR BY MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THE WINDS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY...STILL EXPECT WNW WINDS SUSTAINED OF 15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS 30-35KTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FOR AREAS TO THE EAST...EXPECT WNW WINDS OF 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 04Z WEST TO 08Z EAST...BUT THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL COME IN THE 14Z-20Z TIME FRAME. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING...EXPECT MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS AT SPEEDS LESS
THAN 10KTS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WV SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND
SAT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES
WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
BCB/ROA/LYH...COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON...WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ009>014-
016>020-022>024-032>035.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ002.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...DS/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
630 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TODAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF SNOW THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A SNOW SQUALL THIS
AFTERNOON. A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW USHERED IN BY
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...STILL SOME SNOW ON THE RADAR SCREEN LOW PRESSURE
WAS WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. EVEN AS THIS STORM GOES
EAST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND...WILL KEEP SOME ASCENT
OVER THE REGION. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THIS UPDATE.
THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ASCENT THROUGH AT THE MORNING HOURS...LEADING TO A
POSSIBLE REGENERATION OF THE SNOW SHIELD. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS
THIS IDEA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL LIKELY NOT RISE MUCH DURING THE MORNING.
WE CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 3-6 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY.
AN UPPER AIR LOW WILL FORM TO OUR SOUTH MIDDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO CAPE COD. MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IS POISED TO
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WIND PICKS UP.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW DEEPENING OFF CAPE COD AS IT GETS
"CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER AIR LOW.
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AND PERHAPS EVEN AN
ISOLATED SNOW SQUALL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE BIG STORM WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS REACHING 35-40 MPH MOST PLACES WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD. AFTER CRESTING MIDDAY...THEY WILL
DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON/TEENS ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND. ALL TIMES ARE FROM 6 PM THROUGH 11AM
SATURDAY.
TONIGHT...THERE STILL COULD SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT. OTHERWISE...THE SKY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CLEAR BUT THE WIND WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DIVE TO NEAR ZERO IN THE CAPITAL REGION...5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AT TIMES.
THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES HAS PROMPTED
US TO CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES EVERYWHERE TONIGHT EXCEPT WIND
CHILL WARNINGS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.
THE WIND WILL BE RESULT OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING IN THE GULF
OF MAINE. THE LOW WILL ONLY SLOW FURTHER MOVE AWAY ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE A MAINLY SUNNY BUT WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. THE
WIND WILL ABATE A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES
ONLY RECOVER TO 20 AT BEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...ONLY SINGLE NUMBERS OVER
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...INCLUDING MOST OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT A WEAK
CLIPPER WILL WORK ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE CLOUDS
AND THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT. THE APPROACHING FRONT
WILL SERVE TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING QUITE AS LOW AS THEY
WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE. STILL LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO
THEN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10
CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEARLY EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST TRENDS FOR THE MONDAY EVENT
HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN.
FOR SUNDAY...FEBRUARY 1ST...ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WE HAVE
BEEN DISCUSSING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS STILL PROGGED TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD AND EITHER STALL OR BECOME ILL-DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY.
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT DOES DIFFER AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH RECENT
TENDENCIES PLACING IT ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR. THEN
WE QUICKLY SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE APPROACHING OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM.
THE STRONG PC ANOMALY WAS ASHORE ALONG BRITISH COLUMBIA AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PER THE H2O VAPOR
ANALYSIS THIS FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO MERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPAWN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BETWEEN I70-I80.
THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE QPF
FIELDS AND 2D-FGEN FIELDS LINE UP MAINLY SOUTH OF I90 ON MONDAY
WHERE AN ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED. ENSEMBLE DATA AND
PLUMES NOW SUGGEST MORE THAN HALF THE MEMBERS ARE FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT...THE LATEST 30/06Z NAM12 IS FURTHER NORTH
AS WELL WITH MODERATE QPF VALUES. WE WILL REINTRODUCE THIS
POTENTIAL MILLER TYPE B EVENT INTO THE HWO AT THIS TIME. THERMAL
PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT ONLY COLD BUT WILL OFFER A
CHALLENGE WITH RESPECT TO LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS. THE HIGHER RATIOS
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I90 WHERE VALUES COULD BE
APPROACHING 20:1. STILL PLENTY OF TIME AS THIS PV ANOMALY WILL BE
ENTERING THE UPPER AIR NETWORK WHICH SHOULD...HOPEFULLY...RESOLVE
AND NARROW THE SOLUTIONS. AS AN FYI...EVALUATING THE LATEST CIPS
GUIDANCE...MANY OF THE MATCHES DO BRING AN ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
REGION.
THIS WAVE DEPARTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY EVENING AS 1030MB SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE
NORTHEAST. AS H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW -20C...AND
POTENTIAL FOR A FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
A VERY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCATIONS ATTEMPT TO APPROACH RECORD LOWS.
THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN TRANQUIL YET CHILLY. NEXT ARCTIC
IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS ARCTIC FRONTAL AND
TRACK OF A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE COULD MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING
COASTAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THIS WAVE OFFSHORE...THERE ARE A FEW OUTLYING
MEMBERS THAT KEEP THIS WAVE CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIODS/OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. DUE TO THIS...VISIBILITIES WILL BE A CHALLENGE
TO FORECAST AS WE WILL OBSERVE MVFR TO IFR IN SHORT/BRIEF BURSTS.
AT THE MINIMUM...CIGS WILL BE SOLIDLY IN MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING.
TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT BAND OF SNOW
MOVING THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
WITH RESPECT TO DIMINISHING TRENDS IN THE SNOW AND LOW CIGS. THEN A
WIND SHIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF MAGNITUDES WHERE SOME
BLOWING SNOW COULD RESULT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
AROUND NOON WITH 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL RANGE
FROM 1-3 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...3-6 INCHES
FURTHER NORTH.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.
THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
628 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TODAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF SNOW THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A SNOW SQUALL THIS
AFTERNOON. A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW USHERED IN BY
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EST...A SMATTERING OF SNOW THIS MORNING...CONTAINING
SOME BANDLETS OF MODERATE SNOW...WITH OTHERWISE LIGHT SNOW FALLING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BACK EDGE TO THE SNOW WORKING TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...A MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ASCENT THROUGH AT THE
MORNING HOURS...LEADING TO A POSSIBLE REGENERATION OF THE SNOW
SHIELD. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL LIKELY NOT RISE MUCH DURING THE MORNING.
WE DID CANCEL A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHERE IT
APPEARS ONLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE...BASICALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD.
WE CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 3-6 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY.
AN UPPER AIR LOW WILL FORM TO OUR SOUTH MIDDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO CAPE COD. MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IS POISED TO
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WIND PICKS UP.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW DEEPENING OFF CAPE COD AS IT GETS
"CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER AIR LOW.
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AND PERHAPS EVEN AN
ISOLATED SNOW SQUALL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE BIG STORM WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS REACHING 35-40 MPH MOST PLACES WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD. AFTER CRESTING MIDDAY...THEY WILL
DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON/TEENS ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND. ALL TIMES ARE FROM 6 PM THROUGH 11AM
SATURDAY.
TONIGHT...THERE STILL COULD SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT. OTHERWISE...THE SKY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CLEAR BUT THE WIND WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DIVE TO NEAR ZERO IN THE CAPITAL REGION...5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AT TIMES.
THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES HAS PROMPTED
US TO CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES EVERYWHERE TONIGHT EXCEPT WIND
CHILL WARNINGS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.
THE WIND WILL BE RESULT OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING IN THE GULF
OF MAINE. THE LOW WILL ONLY SLOW FURTHER MOVE AWAY ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE A MAINLY SUNNY BUT WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. THE
WIND WILL ABATE A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES
ONLY RECOVER TO 20 AT BEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...ONLY SINGLE NUMBERS OVER
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...INCLUDING MOST OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT A WEAK
CLIPPER WILL WORK ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE CLOUDS
AND THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT. THE APPROACHING FRONT
WILL SERVE TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING QUITE AS LOW AS THEY
WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE. STILL LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO
THEN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10
CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEARLY EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST TRENDS FOR THE MONDAY EVENT
HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN.
FOR SUNDAY...FEBRUARY 1ST...ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WE HAVE
BEEN DISCUSSING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS STILL PROGGED TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD AND EITHER STALL OR BECOME ILL-DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY.
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT DOES DIFFER AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH RECENT
TENDENCIES PLACING IT ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR. THEN
WE QUICKLY SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE APPROACHING OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM.
THE STRONG PC ANOMALY WAS ASHORE ALONG BRITISH COLUMBIA AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PER THE H2O VAPOR
ANALYSIS THIS FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO MERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPAWN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BETWEEN I70-I80.
THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE QPF
FIELDS AND 2D-FGEN FIELDS LINE UP MAINLY SOUTH OF I90 ON MONDAY
WHERE AN ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED. ENSEMBLE DATA AND
PLUMES NOW SUGGEST MORE THAN HALF THE MEMBERS ARE FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT...THE LATEST 30/06Z NAM12 IS FURTHER NORTH
AS WELL WITH MODERATE QPF VALUES. WE WILL REINTRODUCE THIS
POTENTIAL MILLER TYPE B EVENT INTO THE HWO AT THIS TIME. THERMAL
PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT ONLY COLD BUT WILL OFFER A
CHALLENGE WITH RESPECT TO LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS. THE HIGHER RATIOS
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I90 WHERE VALUES COULD BE
APPROACHING 20:1. STILL PLENTY OF TIME AS THIS PV ANOMALY WILL BE
ENTERING THE UPPER AIR NETWORK WHICH SHOULD...HOPEFULLY...RESOLVE
AND NARROW THE SOLUTIONS. AS AN FYI...EVALUATING THE LATEST CIPS
GUIDANCE...MANY OF THE MATCHES DO BRING AN ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
REGION.
THIS WAVE DEPARTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY EVENING AS 1030MB SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE
NORTHEAST. AS H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW -20C...AND
POTENTIAL FOR A FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
A VERY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCATIONS ATTEMPT TO APPROACH RECORD LOWS.
THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN TRANQUIL YET CHILLY. NEXT ARCTIC
IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS ARCTIC FRONTAL AND
TRACK OF A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE COULD MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING
COASTAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THIS WAVE OFFSHORE...THERE ARE A FEW OUTLYING
MEMBERS THAT KEEP THIS WAVE CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIODS/OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. DUE TO THIS...VISIBILITIES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST
AS WE WILL OBSERVE MVFR TO IFR IN SHORT/BRIEF BURSTS. AT THE
MINIMUM...CIGS WILL BE SOLIDLY IN MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS HINT A BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THEREAFTER...DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH RESPECT TO DIMINISHING
TRENDS IN THE SNOW AND LOW CIGS. THEN A WIND SHIFT WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASE OF MAGNITUDES WHERE SOME BLOWING SNOW COULD RESULT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS IN KALB. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
FRIDAY MORNING WITH 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL RANGE
FROM 1-3 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...3-6 INCHES
FURTHER NORTH.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.
THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE BIG BEND
REGION TO NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED BY A
THIN BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND A QUICK NW WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT.
BAND HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER LAND AS IT MOVER FURTHER SOUTH AND BOTH
THE WRF AND HRRR SHOW LITTLE MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS AT TAMPA AND XMR
SHOWING PWATS AROUND 0.68" AND A GOOD INVERSION AROUND 3500FT. WHILE
A SPRINKLE CAN`T BE RULED OUT...WILL KEEP FORECAST OVER LAND DRY
WITH MAIN IMPACTS A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS WITH THE FRONT MOVING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF FRONT/WIND SHIFT ARRIVING INTO REGION AROUND
MIDDAY...WILL HOLD HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES
IN THE MID 60S...WITH UPPER 60S/AROUND 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR. POINTS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
1-2HRS OF CIGS FL020-030 TO EACH SITE AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM N-S
AFTER 14Z. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH PASSAGE. WIND SHIFT TO N-NW
WITH G20KTS BEHIND FRONT STARTING AROUND 16Z FOR KLEE-KDAB AND BY
23Z FOR KSUA.
&&
.MARINE...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW 10-15KTS THIS MORNING ALONG COAST AND
BUOYS AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH PENINSULA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NW 15-20KTS NORTH OF THE CAPE BY MIDDAY AND OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOLID 20KTS EXPECTED
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS BY THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. SEAS
INITIALLY 3-5FT THIS MORNING RAMPING UP TO 5-7FT IN THE ADVISORY
AREA BY SUNSET AS NORTH WIND SURGE COUNTERS THE GULF STREAM.
NO CHANGES TO ONGOING ADVISORIES WHICH START AROUND MIDDAY FOR THE
OFFSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS...EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE OFFSHORE
BREVARD WATERS...AND THIS EVENING FOR THE TREASURE COAST WATERS
INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE PORTION OF THE GULFSTREAM.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM SATURDAY
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM SATURDAY
FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM SATURDAY
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
MOSES/PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
549 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...
313 AM CST
THROUGH TONIGHT...
WEATHER NIL IN THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION KICKING IN LATE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
313 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALL EYES IN THE LONG TERM ARE ON THE COMPLEX WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM
WHICH LOOKS LIKELY TO BRING SHOVEL-ABLE SNOWFALL TO THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND IS RELATIVELY COMPACT SHORTWAVE
ABOUT 700 MILES WEST OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY
EVENING...WHILE WHILE PHASING WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA.
THE TRACK OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW AND A LARGE CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
OLD MEXICO. THE COMPLEXITY OF THIS PATTERN LENDS ITSELF TO HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...ITS INTENSITY...QPF AMOUNTS...AND PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST QPF AND SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE NUMBER OF PLAYERS INVOLVED
AND THE FACT THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE IS STILL OFFSHORE IT IS QUITE
PLAUSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL LARGE SWINGS IN THE
FORECAST MODELS` PREDICTED TRACK/INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...MUCH
LIKE WHAT WAS SEEN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE MAIN STORY 24 HOURS
AGO BEING THE BIG SOUTHWARD TRENDS IN THE SOLUTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A
FORECAST TRACK SHIFT OF NEARLY 200 MILES FARTHER NORTH IN THE 00Z
ECMWF TONIGHT VS ITS RUN 24 HOURS AGO.
OK...ENOUGH ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTIES AND ON TO THE CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS OF THE SYSTEM. AS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LOOK FOR A COLORADO LOW TO DEVELOP SATURDAY...THEN
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE STILL PROGGED TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT TO
OUT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT LOOKS TO BE
A LONG DURATION WAA SNOW EVENT. LOOKING AT THE 280-295K ISENTROPIC
SURFACES MODELS HAVE UPGLIDE STARTING SAT EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAK/BROAD DEFORMATION BAND LIKELY TO
KEEP SNOWS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
LOW/MID LEVEL PARCELS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE
PROGGED TO HAVE ORIGINATED FROM THE WESTERN GULF...SO THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE ACCESS TO MUCH MORE MOISTURE THAN MOST OF OUR SYSTEMS HAVE
HAD THIS WINTER...THOUGH IT STILL WILL BE FEEDING OFF A RECYCLED
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS FOLLOWING TODAY`S FROPA IN THE GULF.
STRONGEST ASCENT/HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THIS EVENING`S RUNS LOOKS TO
BE CENTERED ON SAT NIGHT AND OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CURRENT RUN`S
THERMODYNAMICS FORECAST MOISTURE/OMEGA REALLY POINT TOWARD
SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS NEAR CLIMO (10-12:1) FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EVENT WHICH GIVEN LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS/WPC QPF FORECAST WOULD
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 3-6" AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LONG
DURATION OF THE EVENT...WARNING CRITERIA IS 8 INCHES IN 24 HOURS
WHICH IS POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN IF AND WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW THAT COULD TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO ONLY BE AROUND 5-6KFT SO LAKE EFFECT CONVECTION WOULD BE
SHALLOW. CURRENT FORECAST THERMODYNAMICS AND FORECAST OF VERY DRY
AIR ATOP A SOLID INVERSION...IT REALLY DOESNT LOOK TO FAVOR LAKE
EFFECT BEING A BIG PLAYER IN SNOWFALL TOTALS. CAN`T RULE OUT A BIT
OF ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS SUN AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS THE CONTRIBUTION TO
TOTALS FROM THE LAKE LOOK TO BE TRIVIAL COMPARED TO THE SYNOPTIC
SNOWS.
PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM...SO ARCTIC AIR WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO GET WELL ENTRENCHED
BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT CLIPPER WHICH THIS EVENING`S RUN HAVE TRACKING ACROSS WISCONSIN
KEEPING US IN THE RELATIVELY DRY WARM SECTOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER SURGE
OF ARCTIC IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLY ACCOMPANYING IT. WHILE IT LOOKS TO BE VERY COLD
MIDWEEK...GFS AND ECMWF BEYOND DAY 7 SUGGEST THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE WITH ARCTIC AIR NOT STICKING AROUND WITH LONG WAVE
TROUGH MIGRATING EAST OUT OF THE AREA.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* NNWLY WINDS BACKING TO SWLY THIS AFTERNOON. SPEED LESS THAN 10KT
THROUGH THE DAY.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH A BIT FROM THE INITIAL
8-9KT THIS MORNING AND BACK TO SWLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS NRN IL AND INTO CNTRL INDIANA. WINDS WILL
THEN BE LIGHT AND SWLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW. IFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY.
SUNDAY...SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. MVFR
CIGS/VIS LIKELY. PERIODS IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL EARLY. SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW OVERNIGHT. MVFR
CIGS/VIS LIKELY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS
LIKELY.
THURSDAY...VFR/WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
230 AM CST
A PROGRESSIVE...ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR LAKE MICHIGAN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER THE LAKE
AND WILL LET THE GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS EXPIRE AT
300 AM. HOWEVER...WITH LAKE MICHIGAN STILL UNDER A RELATIVELY
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
FOR BOTH THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS ARE STILL ARND 30
KT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD DROP OFF TO 10-15KT BY MID DAY.
RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION FROM THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
KEEP WAVES ABOVE 4 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RELATIVELY MILD CONDITONS WILL SET UP...BUT THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY
SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES SATUDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NELY WINDS OF 25-30 KT WILL BEGIN FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
542 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
High pressure will build across central and southeast Illinois today
from the northwest. This Canadian high will bring cooler air into
the area than yesterday, but the fact that winds will be much
lighter and at least partly sunny skies are anticipated should make
for a decent late January day. The only real wild card today from
what should be a quiet weather day is how much cloud cover there
will be. Skies across the area are rapidly clearing from the
northwest as the high builds in, but there are still significant
patches of clouds upstream beneath the ridge axis across the upper
Midwest. For now, plan to be optimistic with cloud cover given the
clearing that has taken place so far, and the fact that forecast
soundings do not suggest significant low level moisture trapped
beneath the subsidence inversion.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
00Z Jan 30th forecast model suite continues to trend further north
with ECMWF model the further north and much further north than its
model runs a few runs ago. Consensus of models has heaviest snow
band to set up over our northern counties north of a Springfield to
Paris line during Saturday night and Sunday where 6-8 inches of snow
and locally higher amounts possible. Between 3-5 inches of snow
south of I-70 in southeast IL where mix precipitation to occur Sat
afternoon/evening before changing to all snow by overnight Sat night
into Sunday. Will issue another SPS to address the potential of several
inches of snow accumulations Saturday night and Sunday especially
from I-72 north. A winter storm watch may eventually be needed
Saturday night and Sunday especially over northern counties.
1037 mb high pressure over MN into the central plains will drift
east into the Ohio river valley by midnight tonight and into the mid
Atlantic States Sat morning and continue dry weather over central
and eastern IL. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 20s with a few
upper teens from Champaign and Paris northeast.
Low pressure organizing in the sw states to deepen surface low
pressure ne into the central Ohio river valley by sunset Sunday.
This to spread mixed precipitation into central IL during Sat
afternoon with areas from Lincoln south mainly light rain and mix of
light rain/snow northern counties with little or no snow
accumulations during daytime hours Sat. Highs Sat in the lower 40s,
with upper 30s from I-74 north. Brunt of snow and moderate at times
to develop during Saturday night into Sunday with mix of rain/snow
sw counties Sat evening. Models have trended heavier with qpf close
to three quarter inches and snowfall amounts especially north of
I-70. NE winds to veer north and increase during day Sunday from nw
to se and temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday especially in
afternoon with some blowing snow developing by Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening. Light snow to diminish from the west during Sunday
night as low pressure pulls away from IL.
Canadian high pressure drifts down into IL from western Canadian Rockies
by Monday afternoon returning dry but cold weather as skies become
partly to mostly sunny. Highs Monday only in upper teens and lower
20s Monday due to expected snow pack. Temps briefly climb Tue into
low to mid 30s with breezy ssw winds ahead of clipper system that
moves into Great Lakes region Tue night and swings a cold front se
through IL Wed bringing chances of light snow and flurries. Even
colder air to follow this weather system for from Wed night through
Friday with lows possibly getting below zero Thu night after highs
Thu in mid to upper teens over central IL with lower 20s south of
I-70.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
Mainly quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. Skies
have become mostly clear across much of the area in the past few
hours, and cloud cover through the remainder of the period is
expected to remain minimal. However, will have to monitor some of
the MVFR cigs that still exist upstream across the upper Midwest
and see if any of them can hold together as they stream this way.
Northwest winds will diminish early this morning, becoming
light/variable as high pressure builds into the area. Winds are
then expected to trend southerly tonight as the high pressure
ridge pushes east of the area.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Bak
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
542 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
High pressure will build across central and southeast Illinois today
from the northwest. This Canadian high will bring cooler air into
the area than yesterday, but the fact that winds will be much
lighter and at least partly sunny skies are anticipated should make
for a decent late January day. The only real wild card today from
what should be a quiet weather day is how much cloud cover there
will be. Skies across the area are rapidly clearing from the
northwest as the high builds in, but there are still significant
patches of clouds upstream beneath the ridge axis across the upper
Midwest. For now, plan to be optimistic with cloud cover given the
clearing that has taken place so far, and the fact that forecast
soundings do not suggest significant low level moisture trapped
beneath the subsidence inversion.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
00Z Jan 30th forecast model suite continues to trend further north
with ECMWF model the further north and much further north than its
model runs a few runs ago. Consensus of models has heaviest snow
band to set up over our northern counties north of a Springfield to
Paris line during Saturday night and Sunday where 6-8 inches of snow
and locally higher amounts possible. Between 3-5 inches of snow
south of I-70 in southeast IL where mix precipitation to occur Sat
afternoon/evening before changing to all snow by overnight Sat night
into Sunday. Will issue another SPS to address the potential of several
inches of snow accumulations Saturday night and Sunday especially
from I-72 north. A winter storm watch may eventually be needed
Saturday night and Sunday especially over northern counties.
1037 mb high pressure over MN into the central plains will drift
east into the Ohio river valley by midnight tonight and into the mid
Atlantic States Sat morning and continue dry weather over central
and eastern IL. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 20s with a few
upper teens from Champaign and Paris northeast.
Low pressure organizing in the sw states to deepen surface low
pressure ne into the central Ohio river valley by sunset Sunday.
This to spread mixed precipitation into central IL during Sat
afternoon with areas from Lincoln south mainly light rain and mix of
light rain/snow northern counties with little or no snow
accumulations during daytime hours Sat. Highs Sat in the lower 40s,
with upper 30s from I-74 north. Brunt of snow and moderate at times
to develop during Saturday night into Sunday with mix of rain/snow
sw counties Sat evening. Models have trended heavier with qpf close
to three quarter inches and snowfall amounts especially north of
I-70. NE winds to veer north and increase during day Sunday from nw
to se and temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday especially in
afternoon with some blowing snow developing by Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening. Light snow to diminish from the west during Sunday
night as low pressure pulls away from IL.
Canadian high pressure drifts down into IL from western Canadian Rockies
by Monday afternoon returning dry but cold weather as skies become
partly to mostly sunny. Highs Monday only in upper teens and lower
20s Monday due to expected snow pack. Temps briefly climb Tue into
low to mid 30s with breezy ssw winds ahead of clipper system that
moves into Great Lakes region Tue night and swings a cold front se
through IL Wed bringing chances of light snow and flurries. Even
colder air to follow this weather system for from Wed night through
Friday with lows possibly getting below zero Thu night after highs
Thu in mid to upper teens over central IL with lower 20s south of
I-70.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
Mainly quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. Skies
have become mostly clear across much of the area in the past few
hours, and cloud cover through the remainder of the period is
expected to remain minimal. However, will have to monitor some of
the MVFR cigs that still exist upstream across the upper Midwest
and see if any of them can hold together as they stream this way.
Northwest winds will diminish early this morning, becoming
light/variable as high pressure builds into the area. Winds are
then expected to trend southerly tonight as the high pressure
ridge pushes east of the area.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Bak
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
542 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
High pressure will build across central and southeast Illinois today
from the northwest. This Canadian high will bring cooler air into
the area than yesterday, but the fact that winds will be much
lighter and at least partly sunny skies are anticipated should make
for a decent late January day. The only real wild card today from
what should be a quiet weather day is how much cloud cover there
will be. Skies across the area are rapidly clearing from the
northwest as the high builds in, but there are still significant
patches of clouds upstream beneath the ridge axis across the upper
Midwest. For now, plan to be optimistic with cloud cover given the
clearing that has taken place so far, and the fact that forecast
soundings do not suggest significant low level moisture trapped
beneath the subsidence inversion.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
00Z Jan 30th forecast model suite continues to trend further north
with ECMWF model the further north and much further north than its
model runs a few runs ago. Consensus of models has heaviest snow
band to set up over our northern counties north of a Springfield to
Paris line during Saturday night and Sunday where 6-8 inches of snow
and locally higher amounts possible. Between 3-5 inches of snow
south of I-70 in southeast IL where mix precipitation to occur Sat
afternoon/evening before changing to all snow by overnight Sat night
into Sunday. Will issue another SPS to address the potential of several
inches of snow accumulations Saturday night and Sunday especially
from I-72 north. A winter storm watch may eventually be needed
Saturday night and Sunday especially over northern counties.
1037 mb high pressure over MN into the central plains will drift
east into the Ohio river valley by midnight tonight and into the mid
Atlantic States Sat morning and continue dry weather over central
and eastern IL. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 20s with a few
upper teens from Champaign and Paris northeast.
Low pressure organizing in the sw states to deepen surface low
pressure ne into the central Ohio river valley by sunset Sunday.
This to spread mixed precipitation into central IL during Sat
afternoon with areas from Lincoln south mainly light rain and mix of
light rain/snow northern counties with little or no snow
accumulations during daytime hours Sat. Highs Sat in the lower 40s,
with upper 30s from I-74 north. Brunt of snow and moderate at times
to develop during Saturday night into Sunday with mix of rain/snow
sw counties Sat evening. Models have trended heavier with qpf close
to three quarter inches and snowfall amounts especially north of
I-70. NE winds to veer north and increase during day Sunday from nw
to se and temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday especially in
afternoon with some blowing snow developing by Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening. Light snow to diminish from the west during Sunday
night as low pressure pulls away from IL.
Canadian high pressure drifts down into IL from western Canadian Rockies
by Monday afternoon returning dry but cold weather as skies become
partly to mostly sunny. Highs Monday only in upper teens and lower
20s Monday due to expected snow pack. Temps briefly climb Tue into
low to mid 30s with breezy ssw winds ahead of clipper system that
moves into Great Lakes region Tue night and swings a cold front se
through IL Wed bringing chances of light snow and flurries. Even
colder air to follow this weather system for from Wed night through
Friday with lows possibly getting below zero Thu night after highs
Thu in mid to upper teens over central IL with lower 20s south of
I-70.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
Mainly quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. Skies
have become mostly clear across much of the area in the past few
hours, and cloud cover through the remainder of the period is
expected to remain minimal. However, will have to monitor some of
the MVFR cigs that still exist upstream across the upper Midwest
and see if any of them can hold together as they stream this way.
Northwest winds will diminish early this morning, becoming
light/variable as high pressure builds into the area. Winds are
then expected to trend southerly tonight as the high pressure
ridge pushes east of the area.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Bak
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
542 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
High pressure will build across central and southeast Illinois today
from the northwest. This Canadian high will bring cooler air into
the area than yesterday, but the fact that winds will be much
lighter and at least partly sunny skies are anticipated should make
for a decent late January day. The only real wild card today from
what should be a quiet weather day is how much cloud cover there
will be. Skies across the area are rapidly clearing from the
northwest as the high builds in, but there are still significant
patches of clouds upstream beneath the ridge axis across the upper
Midwest. For now, plan to be optimistic with cloud cover given the
clearing that has taken place so far, and the fact that forecast
soundings do not suggest significant low level moisture trapped
beneath the subsidence inversion.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
00Z Jan 30th forecast model suite continues to trend further north
with ECMWF model the further north and much further north than its
model runs a few runs ago. Consensus of models has heaviest snow
band to set up over our northern counties north of a Springfield to
Paris line during Saturday night and Sunday where 6-8 inches of snow
and locally higher amounts possible. Between 3-5 inches of snow
south of I-70 in southeast IL where mix precipitation to occur Sat
afternoon/evening before changing to all snow by overnight Sat night
into Sunday. Will issue another SPS to address the potential of several
inches of snow accumulations Saturday night and Sunday especially
from I-72 north. A winter storm watch may eventually be needed
Saturday night and Sunday especially over northern counties.
1037 mb high pressure over MN into the central plains will drift
east into the Ohio river valley by midnight tonight and into the mid
Atlantic States Sat morning and continue dry weather over central
and eastern IL. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 20s with a few
upper teens from Champaign and Paris northeast.
Low pressure organizing in the sw states to deepen surface low
pressure ne into the central Ohio river valley by sunset Sunday.
This to spread mixed precipitation into central IL during Sat
afternoon with areas from Lincoln south mainly light rain and mix of
light rain/snow northern counties with little or no snow
accumulations during daytime hours Sat. Highs Sat in the lower 40s,
with upper 30s from I-74 north. Brunt of snow and moderate at times
to develop during Saturday night into Sunday with mix of rain/snow
sw counties Sat evening. Models have trended heavier with qpf close
to three quarter inches and snowfall amounts especially north of
I-70. NE winds to veer north and increase during day Sunday from nw
to se and temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday especially in
afternoon with some blowing snow developing by Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening. Light snow to diminish from the west during Sunday
night as low pressure pulls away from IL.
Canadian high pressure drifts down into IL from western Canadian Rockies
by Monday afternoon returning dry but cold weather as skies become
partly to mostly sunny. Highs Monday only in upper teens and lower
20s Monday due to expected snow pack. Temps briefly climb Tue into
low to mid 30s with breezy ssw winds ahead of clipper system that
moves into Great Lakes region Tue night and swings a cold front se
through IL Wed bringing chances of light snow and flurries. Even
colder air to follow this weather system for from Wed night through
Friday with lows possibly getting below zero Thu night after highs
Thu in mid to upper teens over central IL with lower 20s south of
I-70.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
Mainly quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. Skies
have become mostly clear across much of the area in the past few
hours, and cloud cover through the remainder of the period is
expected to remain minimal. However, will have to monitor some of
the MVFR cigs that still exist upstream across the upper Midwest
and see if any of them can hold together as they stream this way.
Northwest winds will diminish early this morning, becoming
light/variable as high pressure builds into the area. Winds are
then expected to trend southerly tonight as the high pressure
ridge pushes east of the area.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Bak
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
329 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
High pressure will build across central and southeast Illinois today
from the northwest. This Canadian high will bring cooler air into
the area than yesterday, but the fact that winds will be much
lighter and at least partly sunny skies are anticipated should make
for a decent late January day. The only real wild card today from
what should be a quiet weather day is how much cloud cover there
will be. Skies across the area are rapidly clearing from the
northwest as the high builds in, but there are still significant
patches of clouds upstream beneath the ridge axis across the upper
Midwest. For now, plan to be optimistic with cloud cover given the
clearing that has taken place so far, and the fact that forecast
soundings do not suggest significant low level moisture trapped
beneath the subsidence inversion.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
00Z Jan 30th forecast model suite continues to trend further north
with ECMWF model the further north and much further north than its
model runs a few runs ago. Concensus of models has heaviest snow
band to set up over our northern counties north of a Springfield to
Paris line during Saturday night and Sunday where 6-8 inches of snow
and locally higher amounts possible. Between 3-5 inches of snow
south of I-70 in southeast IL where mix precipitation to occur Sat
afternoon/evening before changing to all snow by overnight Sat night
into Sunday. Will issue another SPS to address the potential of several
inches of snow accumulations Saturday night and Sunday especially
from I-72 north. A winter storm watch may eventually be needed
Saturday night and Sunday especially over northern counties.
1037 mb high pressure over MN into the central plains will drift
east into the Ohio river valley by midnight tonight and into the mid
Atlantic States Sat morning and continue dry weather over central
and eastern IL. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 20s with a few
upper teens from Champaign and Paris northeast.
Low pressure organizing in the sw states to deepen surface low
pressure ne into the central Ohio river valley by sunset Sunday.
This to spread mixed precipitation into central IL during Sat
afternoon with areas from Lincoln south mainly light rain and mix of
light rain/snow northern counties with little or no snow
accumulations during daytime hours Sat. Highs Sat in the lower 40s,
with upper 30s from I-74 north. Brunt of snow and moderate at times
to develop during Saturday night into Sunday with mix of rain/snow
sw counties Sat evening. Models have trended heavier with qpf close
to three quarter inches and snowfall amounts especially north of
I-70. NE winds to veer north and increase during day Sunday from nw
to se and temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday especially in
afternoon with some blowing snow developing by Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening. Light snow to diminish from the west during Sunday
night as low pressure pulls away from IL.
Canadian high pressure drifts down into IL from western Canadian Rockies
by Monday afternoon returning dry but cold weather as skies become
partly to mostly sunny. Highs Monday only in upper teens and lower
20s Monday due to expected snow pack. Temps briefly climb Tue into
low to mid 30s with breezy ssw winds ahead of clipper system that
moves into Great Lakes region Tue night and swings a cold front se
through IL Wed bringing chances of light snow and flurries. Even
colder air to follow this weather system for from Wed night through
Friday with lows possibly getting below zero Thu night after highs
Thu in mid to upper teens over central IL with lower 20s south of
I-70.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015
Overcast conditions remain in place across central Illinois late
this evening, although ceilings have improved into the VFR
category at all terminals. Satellite imagery continues to show
clearing across Iowa/Missouri working its way southeastward. Based
on satellite loops and the latest HRRR forecast, it appears skies
will begin to clear at KPIA by 08z, then further east to KCMI by
around 12z. Winds will remain gusty from the northwest early in
the period, but will drop to less than 10kt toward dawn, then will
go light/variable on Friday as high pressure builds into the area.
Once the overnight cloud cover departs, only SCT mid/high clouds
will be noted through 06z Sat.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1000 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. LIGHT
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TODAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS SENDING WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW
ZERO TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... WE`VE ISSUED A LES ADVSY FOR
TOMPKINS...TIOGA...BROOME...AND SUSQ CNTYS...AS CONFIDENCE HAS
BECOME FAIRLY HIGH IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A WELL DVLPD FINGER LKS
BAND...THROUGH AT LEAST 00-03Z THIS EVE. OUR FIRST STAB AT SNOW
TOTALS IS 3-6"...BUT LOCALLY HIER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL.
NO OTHER SIG CHGS ATTM.
830 AM UPDATE... SN/+SN IS BEING OBSERVED ATTM WITHIN A SW-NE
ORIENTED BAND ACRS NE PA AND PTNS OF THE WRN CATSKILLS. THIS
FEATURE IS ON THE NWRN/DEFORMATION SIDE OF A S/WV LIFTING THROUGH
THE RGN THIS MRNG. POP/WX/SNOWFALL GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT
SUCH DVLPMTS. WE`VE ADDED A CORRIDOR OF 2-3" ADDTNL SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND AREA THROUGH 15-16Z. A SHORT-TERM
SPS WAS ALSO ISSUED.
OTHWS...THE FCST IS PRETTY WELL IN HAND. FAIRLY DEEP LYR OF INSTAB
NOTED ON THE 12Z KBUF SNDG...INDICATIVE OF THE AMS WE`LL HAVE
THROUGH EARLY AFTN...AHD OF THE NEXT INCOMING S/WV. LIKELY POPS
FOR SNOW SHWRS OVER MOST OF CNY...WITH MORE SCTD ACTIVITY ACRS
MUCH OF NE PA...STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH A FLUFFY 1-2"
ANTICIPATED IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SHSN. IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT
THE LATEST HRRR AND HI-RES ARW OUTPUT IN PARTICULAR SHOW A WELL
FORMED MULTI-BAND/FINGER LKS BAND FROM LTR THIS MRNG...THROUGH THE
AFTN...AND INTO THE EVE HRS...DOWN THE AXIS OF CAYUGA LAKE...AND THEN
SEWD FROM THERE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMPKINS/TIOGA CNTYS. SINCE THERE
ARE ALREADY SOME INDICATIONS OF BANDING IN THIS GENERAL AREA
ATTM...WE`LL MONITOR THAT CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.
GIVEN STG CAA THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...SHARPLY FALLING TEMPS STILL
LOOK LIKELY...AND OUR PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED TREND WAS KEPT IN TACT.
PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
WEST THEN NW. MOST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH FRONTS OVER
WITH...HAVING MOVED INTO ERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE
DURATION AND THE OBS FROM SYR AND BGM PROBABLY GOT LESS THAN 4
INCHES. LAKE EFFECT WILL START WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT. THIS
BACKED UP ALOFT WITH A SHORT WAVE AND TROF. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM 280 TO 310. ALSO WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. LAKE EFFECT STARTS WITH MULTIBANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP IN THE USUAL AREAS OF THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES
AND NORTHERN SUSQUEHANNA REGION. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY 1 TO
3 INCHES. THE WIND WILL CAUSE DRIFTING. SNOW AMOUNTS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DROPPED WWA.
TEMPERATURES TO FALL SLOWLY ALL DAY. WIND CHILLS APPROACH ZERO
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY ISSUED FOR ENTIRE CWA. WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL
BELOW ZERO WITH TEMPERATURE FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. WINDS ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST. WINDS STAY ABOVE 10 MPH.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH AS DRY AIR COMES IN ALOFT AND THE
DENDRITE ZONE FALLS TO THE SFC. WEAK MULTIBANDS WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY IN THE FINGER LAKES WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. THE LAKE EFFECT DIES SATURDAY WHEN THE LL
WINDS SHIFT.
SAT NGT A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH LIGHT SNOW FOR CENT NY.
FORCING AND MOISTURE LACKING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH AGAIN WITH THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY STORM.
NOW NE PA COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN NY. SNOW
STARTS SUN AFTN AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THE STORM TRACK IS NOW
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THEN SLOWING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AS IT INTENSIFIES. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY...BUT UPPED POPS,
QPF, AND SNOWFALL. CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE STILL
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z CYCLE AND SHOW THE SFC LOW MONDAY
MORNING MOVING THROUGH NRN VA. THE CANADIAN CONTINUES TO BE
FARTHER SOUTH AS IT TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA. BASED
ON FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TWO MODEL RUNS UPPED THE
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SE FA.
330 PM UPDATE... MODEL DISAGREEMENT/INCONSISTENCY CONTS WITH THE
LATEST CYCLES REGARDING THE SUN NGT-MON STORM SYSTEM. THE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EC/GFS HAVE TRENDED NWD SOMEWHAT AGN...NOW TRACKING
THE SFC LOW THROUGH VA AND SERN MD...AND BRINGING LGT SNOW AT
LEAST TO THE PA/NY BORDER...IF NOT INTO NY`S SRN TIER.
MEANWHILE...THE CAN GEM HAS NOW GONE MUCH FARTHER S...TAKING THE
SFC WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WITH LTL OR NO SNOWFALL FOR OUR FA.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...THE EXPECTATION OF FURTHER MODEL
WAFFLING...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THE SUPPORTING S/WV ENERGY IS
NOW JUST APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...WE`LL
SIMPLY MAKE VERY SMALL INCREMENTAL CHGS ATTM...JUST EASING POPS
UPWARD AGN TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST EC/GFS TRENDS. THIS RESULTS
IN LIKELY POPS FOR OUR FAR SRN ZNS SUN NGT (BACK DOWN TO CHC BY
MON)...AND CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PD FOR OUR NY SRN TIER CNTYS.
ALTHOUGH...STRICTLY SPEAKING...WE`RE CURRENTLY INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER PTNS OF NE PA...THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STAY
TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS SITN.
TUE INTO WED LOOK QUIETER...BUT VERY COLD...WITH ONLY SOME FLRYS
FORESEEN AT WORST.
BY WED NGT AND THU...OUR NEXT REINFORCING COLD FRNT AND NRN STREAM
S/WV APPROACH...BRINGING A CHC OF SNOW SHWRS. THE EC IS ALSO
SHOWING THE PSBLTY THAT SOME SRN STREAM MOISTURE GETS INCORPORATED
INTO THE SYSTEM. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT ALL OF THESE FINE
DETAILS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH ALL THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. AT KITH/KBGM, OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
MIDDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
SCATTERING OUT EXCEPT FOR KITH/KBGM WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER IN
UPSLOPE FLOW.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS SLOWLY
DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...SAT NGT...AND MOST OF SUN...VFR.
SUN NGT MON...PSBL RESTRICTIONS (MVFR/IFR) IN SNOW.
TUE...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ039.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
055>057-062.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ025-
055-056.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
836 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. LIGHT
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TODAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS SENDING WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW
ZERO TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
830 AM UPDATE... SN/+SN IS BEING OBSERVED ATTM WITHIN A SW-NE
ORIENTED BAND ACRS NE PA AND PTNS OF THE WRN CATSKILLS. THIS
FEATURE IS ON THE NWRN/DEFORMATION SIDE OF A S/WV LIFTING THROUGH
THE RGN THIS MRNG. POP/WX/SNOWFALL GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT
SUCH DVLPMTS. WE`VE ADDED A CORRIDOR OF 2-3" ADDTNL SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND AREA THROUGH 15-16Z. A SHORT-TERM
SPS WAS ALSO ISSUED.
OTHWS...THE FCST IS PRETTY WELL IN HAND. FAIRLY DEEP LYR OF INSTAB
NOTED ON THE 12Z KBUF SNDG...INDICATIVE OF THE AMS WE`LL HAVE
THROUGH EARLY AFTN...AHD OF THE NEXT INCOMING S/WV. LIKELY POPS
FOR SNOW SHWRS OVER MOST OF CNY...WITH MORE SCTD ACTIVITY ACRS
MUCH OF NE PA...STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH A FLUFFY 1-2"
ANTICIPATED IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SHSN. IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT
THE LATEST HRRR AND HI-RES ARW OUTPUT IN PARTICULAR SHOW A WELL
FORMED MULTI-BAND/FINGER LKS BAND FROM LTR THIS MRNG...THROUGH THE
AFTN...AND INTO THE EVE HRS...DOWN THE AXIS OF CAYUGA LAKE...AND THEN
SEWD FROM THERE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMPKINS/TIOGA CNTYS. SINCE THERE
ARE ALREADY SOME INDICATIONS OF BANDING IN THIS GENERAL AREA
ATTM...WE`LL MONITOR THAT CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.
GIVEN STG CAA THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...SHARPLY FALLING TEMPS STILL
LOOK LIKELY...AND OUR PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED TREND WAS KEPT IN TACT.
PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
WEST THEN NW. MOST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH FRONTS OVER
WITH...HAVING MOVED INTO ERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE
DURATION AND THE OBS FROM SYR AND BGM PROBABLY GOT LESS THAN 4
INCHES. LAKE EFFECT WILL START WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT. THIS
BACKED UP ALOFT WITH A SHORT WAVE AND TROF. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM 280 TO 310. ALSO WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. LAKE EFFECT STARTS WITH MULTIBANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP IN THE USUAL AREAS OF THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES
AND NORTHERN SUSQUEHANNA REGION. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY 1 TO
3 INCHES. THE WIND WILL CAUSE DRIFTING. SNOW AMOUNTS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DROPPED WWA.
TEMPERATURES TO FALL SLOWLY ALL DAY. WIND CHILLS APPROACH ZERO
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY ISSUED FOR ENTIRE CWA. WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL
BELOW ZERO WITH TEMPERATURE FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. WINDS ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST. WINDS STAY ABOVE 10 MPH.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH AS DRY AIR COMES IN ALOFT AND THE
DENDRITE ZONE FALLS TO THE SFC. WEAK MULTIBANDS WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY IN THE FINGER LAKES WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. THE LAKE EFFECT DIES SATURDAY WHEN THE LL
WINDS SHIFT.
SAT NGT A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH LIGHT SNOW FOR CENT NY.
FORCING AND MOISTURE LACKING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH AGAIN WITH THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY STORM.
NOW NE PA COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN NY. SNOW
STARTS SUN AFTN AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THE STORM TRACK IS NOW
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THEN SLOWING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AS IT INTENSIFIES. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY...BUT UPPED POPS,
QPF, AND SNOWFALL. CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE STILL
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z CYCLE AND SHOW THE SFC LOW MONDAY
MORNING MOVING THROUGH NRN VA. THE CANADIAN CONTINUES TO BE
FARTHER SOUTH AS IT TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA. BASED
ON FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TWO MODEL RUNS UPPED THE
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SE FA.
330 PM UPDATE... MODEL DISAGREEMENT/INCONSISTENCY CONTS WITH THE
LATEST CYCLES REGARDING THE SUN NGT-MON STORM SYSTEM. THE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EC/GFS HAVE TRENDED NWD SOMEWHAT AGN...NOW TRACKING
THE SFC LOW THROUGH VA AND SERN MD...AND BRINGING LGT SNOW AT
LEAST TO THE PA/NY BORDER...IF NOT INTO NY`S SRN TIER.
MEANWHILE...THE CAN GEM HAS NOW GONE MUCH FARTHER S...TAKING THE
SFC WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WITH LTL OR NO SNOWFALL FOR OUR FA.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...THE EXPECTATION OF FURTHER MODEL
WAFFLING...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THE SUPPORTING S/WV ENERGY IS
NOW JUST APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...WE`LL
SIMPLY MAKE VERY SMALL INCREMENTAL CHGS ATTM...JUST EASING POPS
UPWARD AGN TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST EC/GFS TRENDS. THIS RESULTS
IN LIKELY POPS FOR OUR FAR SRN ZNS SUN NGT (BACK DOWN TO CHC BY
MON)...AND CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PD FOR OUR NY SRN TIER CNTYS.
ALTHOUGH...STRICTLY SPEAKING...WE`RE CURRENTLY INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER PTNS OF NE PA...THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STAY
TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS SITN.
TUE INTO WED LOOK QUIETER...BUT VERY COLD...WITH ONLY SOME FLRYS
FORESEEN AT WORST.
BY WED NGT AND THU...OUR NEXT REINFORCING COLD FRNT AND NRN STREAM
S/WV APPROACH...BRINGING A CHC OF SNOW SHWRS. THE EC IS ALSO
SHOWING THE PSBLTY THAT SOME SRN STREAM MOISTURE GETS INCORPORATED
INTO THE SYSTEM. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT ALL OF THESE FINE
DETAILS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH ALL THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. AT KITH/KBGM, OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
MIDDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
SCATTERING OUT EXCEPT FOR KITH/KBGM WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER IN
UPSLOPE FLOW.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS SLOWLY
DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...SAT NGT...AND MOST OF SUN...VFR.
SUN NGT MON...PSBL RESTRICTIONS (MVFR/IFR) IN SNOW.
TUE...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1030 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COLD
FRONT DEPARTING TO THE EAST. STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION IS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE 12Z KGSO RAOB
SHOWING AN ALREADY DEEP MIXED LAYER UP TO 5000 FT AND A GUST TO 38KT
AT KGSO. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE STEADILY INCREASING AND GUSTS ARE
STARTING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30KT AREAWIDE. IT APPEARS
THE GUSTS WILL PEAK LATE THIS MORNING AND VERY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
MUCH AS 30-35KT IN SOME AREAS...BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...REGIONAL VIS SHOWS A FEW STREAMS OF
MOISTURE (JUST ABOVE 850MB PER KGSO/KRNK RAOBS) SPILLING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA. THE STRONG INVERSION JUST ABOVE AND STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THIS MOISTURE TRAPPED
AND THE STRATOCU FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO WE MAINLY EXPECT SKIES VARYING
FROM PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTHWEST TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST.
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 850MB WHILE ACCOUNTING FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE
WARMING YIELDS HIGHS IN THE 43-50 RANGE...ONLY ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES OFF
CURRENT READINGS. -BLS
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT STIR TO THE WIND THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AS 925MB WINDS REMAIN TO 35KT. SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DRY...AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST LOWS FROM
THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BE THE FORECAST
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT...19 TO 20 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO NEAR 25
TOWARD KFAY...CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE OF THE MET AND MAV MOS. ON
SATURDAY...925MB WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15KT BY 18Z...AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE
TEENS KNOTS WITH INITIAL MIXING BEFORE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A FLAT RIDGE AXIS ALOFT GETS CLOSE TO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AS SOME MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES INTO AND
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS...FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE SUCH THAT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY OCCUR FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT
SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER...MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE. -DJF
MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL GET KICKED EASTWARD...IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ON SUNDAY.
ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
MORNING.
NWP MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DEFINITE NORTHWARD SHIFT OBSERVED IN THE LATEST
00Z/30 MODEL ITERATION. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER/DELAYED
ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT IMPORTANTLY DISPLACES THE HEAVIER QPF NORTH OF THE
AREA.
AS SUCH...SUNDAY WILL END UP MOSTLY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY NIGHT...CUTTING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST MORNING MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT RACES
EASTWARD. ESTIMATED QPF AMOUNTS NOW LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50"
RANGE. WITH ONLY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT BEST EXPECTED ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW NOW DISPLACED NORTH OF
THE AREA...WILL KEEP OUT THE MENTION OF ANY THUNDER ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES.
EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES WARMING OVERNIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WAA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER
40S SOUTHEAST. -CBL
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WILL BE STRONG POST-FRONTAL DRY
COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BY THE
AFTERNOON AS CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IF PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES VERIFY AND WE DECOUPLE AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD... EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S. UNDER FULL COMPLIMENTS OF SUN...TEMPS TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM THROUGH THE 30S. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW/TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD FROM
MEXICO AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN A COMPLETE ROLE REVERSAL... THE GFS IS
NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC WITH BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EC NEARLY 24 HOURS
SLOWER...DELAYING UNTIL THURSDAY. GIVEN LATER TIMING OF ONSET OF
PRECIP...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CURRENTLY SUPPORT ALL RAIN. HOWEVER
IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...ANY PRECIP
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE OF THE
FROZEN VARIETY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP POPS AT SMALL CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO GUSTS AROUND 30KT BY LATE MORNING.
ALREADY...THE WIND HAD GUSTED TO 26KT AT KINT. WHILE THE GFS MODEL
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE THAT...THE NAM AND
RAP MODELS ARE LESS...AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER SPEEDS TOP OUT AT MOST
ABOUT 30KT ON ALL THREE WHICH WILL BE THE CAP FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TAFS. SHOWERS WERE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN AND...
EXCEPT FOR KRWI INITIALLY...THE TAFS SHOW A DRY FORECAST.
WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH TODAY...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION...BROKEN VFR CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
LITTLE VIRGA KRDU AND EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING DIURNALLY. HOWEVER...AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS AOA 30KT AT AND ABOVE 2000FT.
BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT
GRADUALLY LOWERING SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY BETTER CHANCES BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY
BREEZY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE VFR CONDITIONS THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT TODAY...OR TO AROUND 35 MPH...ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL...WITH THE
LOWEST GUIDANCE OF THE RAP SUGGESTING SOME DEW POINTS IN SINGLE
FIGURES LATE IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE GFS IS
HIGHER...AND THE NAM IS MORE OF A COMPROMISE...WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE. BY 00Z SATURDAY...THE GRIDDED FORECAST WILL
SHOW A DEW POINT NEAR 10F IN THE TRIAD...BUT EVEN THERE THE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS IN THE UPPER 20S PERCENT. BASED THOSE DEW
POINTS...RECENT RAIN...AND EARLIER FORECAST SERVICE COORDINATION...
WILL FOR NOW HIGHLIGHT THE ADVERSE CONDITIONS OF THE WIND GUSTS IN
THE DISCUSSION OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
FIRE WEATHER...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
636 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STEADY PROGRESS WITH THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND
OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD DRY PUNCH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS...AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST. THIS MORNING...THE
NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND THE LEFT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130KT 250MB
JET THAT WILL BE OVER OR NEAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...850MB
THETA-E VALUES FALL SHARPLY AND K INDICES GO NEGATIVE...BUT WITH THE
FRONT THERE IS WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE ON THE 295K SURFACE OF THE GFS
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. AS OF
THIS WRITING A FEW...FAINT ECHOES WERE NOTED ON THE KRAX WSR-88D
JUST EAST OF KGSO TOWARD KBUY...BUT BETTER SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE
OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD KETC...KFAY...AND KCTZ. PLAN TO
AT LEAST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF ABOUT U.S. 1...WITH A CHANCE IN SOME LOCATIONS TOWARD
INTERSTATE 95 WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT.
SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR IN GENERAL BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THE
NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND
EAST SUGGEST A PERIOD OF BROKEN STRATOCU OR SHALLOW CU DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND MODERATE VORTICITY
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. IN FACT...THE GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS NEAR KRDU IN PARTICULAR WOULD SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT...ALBEIT
SHALLOW...TO GET A PARCEL A LITTLE COLDER THAN -10C AND POSSIBLY
PROVIDE FOR VIRGA OR A SPRINKLE. WILL LEAVE THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
DRY...THOUGH SHOW A PERIOD OF GREATER CLOUD COVER FROM THE TRIANGLE
NORTH AND EAST DURING A PART OF THE AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
850MB WINDS OF 30 TO 35KT AND 925MB WINDS DIMINISHING FROM NEAR 40KT
EARLY THIS MORNING TO AROUND 30KT BY 18Z. PURE LIFT FROM THE GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS UP THE DRY ADIABAT WOULD SUGGEST WIND GUSTS ABOVE
30KT POSSIBLE...BUT THE NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LITTLE LOWER
GUSTS AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER FIELDS FROM ALL THREE MODELS ON BUFKIT
CAP GUSTS AT 30KT. WILL KEEP THE GUSTS TO 30KT OR 35MPH IN THE
FORECAST WHILE ANTICIPATING A SPOT OR THREE TO BE BRIEFLY A LITTLE
ABOVE THAT. THICKNESSES IN MANY PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FALL
DURING THE DAY...AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST A LEAN
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY. BASED ON CURRENT
READINGS AND EXPECTED SUN OFFSET BY COOL ADVECTION...WILL HAVE HIGHS
FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 AND SHADING TOWARD THE MET MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT STIR TO THE WIND THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AS 925MB WINDS REMAIN TO 35KT. SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DRY...AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST LOWS FROM
THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BE THE FORECAST
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT...19 TO 20 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO NEAR 25
TOWARD KFAY...CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE OF THE MET AND MAV MOS. ON
SATURDAY...925MB WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15KT BY 18Z...AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE
TEENS KNOTS WITH INITIAL MIXING BEFORE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A FLAT RIDGE AXIS ALOFT GETS CLOSE TO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AS SOME MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES INTO AND
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS...FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE SUCH THAT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY OCCUR FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT
SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER...MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE. -DJF
MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL GET KICKED EASTWARD...IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ON SUNDAY.
ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
MORNING.
NWP MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DEFINITE NORTHWARD SHIFT OBSERVED IN THE LATEST
00Z/30 MODEL ITERATION. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER/DELAYED
ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT IMPORTANTLY DISPLACES THE HEAVIER QPF NORTH OF THE
AREA.
AS SUCH...SUNDAY WILL END UP MOSTLY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY NIGHT...CUTTING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST MORNING MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT RACES
EASTWARD. ESTIMATED QPF AMOUNTS NOW LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50"
RANGE. WITH ONLY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT BEST EXPECTED ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW NOW DISPLACED NORTH OF
THE AREA...WILL KEEP OUT THE MENTION OF ANY THUNDER ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES.
EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES WARMING OVERNIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WAA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER
40S SOUTHEAST. -CBL
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WILL BE STRONG POST-FRONTAL DRY
COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BY THE
AFTERNOON AS CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IF PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES VERIFY AND WE DECOUPLE AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD... EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S. UNDER FULL COMPLIMENTS OF SUN...TEMPS TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM THROUGH THE 30S. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW/TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD FROM
MEXICO AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN A COMPLETE ROLE REVERSAL... THE GFS IS
NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC WITH BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EC NEARLY 24 HOURS
SLOWER...DELAYING UNTIL THURSDAY. GIVEN LATER TIMING OF ONSET OF
PRECIP...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CURRENTLY SUPPORT ALL RAIN. HOWEVER
IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...ANY PRECIP
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE OF THE
FROZEN VARIETY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP POPS AT SMALL CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO GUSTS AROUND 30KT BY LATE MORNING.
ALREADY...THE WIND HAD GUSTED TO 26KT AT KINT. WHILE THE GFS MODEL
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE THAT...THE NAM AND
RAP MODELS ARE LESS...AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER SPEEDS TOP OUT AT MOST
ABOUT 30KT ON ALL THREE WHICH WILL BE THE CAP FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TAFS. SHOWERS WERE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN AND...
EXCEPT FOR KRWI INITIALLY...THE TAFS SHOW A DRY FORECAST.
WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH TODAY...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION...BROKEN VFR CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
LITTLE VIRGA KRDU AND EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING DIURNALLY. HOWEVER...AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS AOA 30KT AT AND ABOVE 2000FT.
BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT
GRADUALLY LOWERING SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY BETTER CHANCES BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY
BREEZY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE VFR CONDITIONS THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT TODAY...OR TO AROUND 35 MPH...ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL...WITH THE
LOWEST GUIDANCE OF THE RAP SUGGESTING SOME DEW POINTS IN SINGLE
FIGURES LATE IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE GFS IS
HIGHER...AND THE NAM IS MORE OF A COMPROMISE...WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE. BY 00Z SATURDAY...THE GRIDDED FORECAST WILL
SHOW A DEW POINT NEAR 10F IN THE TRIAD...BUT EVEN THERE THE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS IN THE UPPER 20S PERCENT. BASED THOSE DEW
POINTS...RECENT RAIN...AND EARLIER FORECAST SERVICE COORDINATION...
WILL FOR NOW HIGHLIGHT THE ADVERSE CONDITIONS OF THE WIND GUSTS IN
THE DISCUSSION OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
FIRE WEATHER...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
851 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN MODERATE
WARM ADVECTION. MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S WHICH IS QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. UPDATE TO CLOUDS
THE ONLY CHANGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN
AREA OF MVFR-IFR CLOUDS FROM BOTTINEAU TO HARVEY AND WISHEK WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MADE SOME MINOR SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND BUMPED UP SOUTHERLY
WINDS JUST A LITTLE THIS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND PUSH NORTH. THE HRRR IS
DOING A REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING THE CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS IN
THE 925MB MOISTURE FIELD. THE HRRR HAS THE AREA OF STRATUS
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 8 AM.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY ABOUT 11 AM. WINDS THEN SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FAVORED FOR
A NICE QUICK WARM UP BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND A WARM FRONT
NEARBY THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOW
50S. THE NORTH SHOULD REMAIN COOLER AS THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
EARLIER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE HOLD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN PERIOD
AND USED A MODEL BLEND WITH WPC QPF FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...00 UTC FRIDAY MODELS HAVE FLIPPED A BIT
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WHILE THE GEM HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF.
HOWEVER A BLEND STILL YIELDS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE...CLOSE TO WPC
FORECAST AND SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A 120KT UPPER LEVEL JET DROPPING
INTO MONTANA FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THIS SAME AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT TAPERING QUICKLY TO LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION FROM AROUND SHERWOOD TO RUGBY AND CARRINGTON.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. THERE ARE DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW...BUT WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS. THIS SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES WHICH INDUCES SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MONDAY REGION TUESDAY. AGAIN...WIDESPREAD
SNOWS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY SUB ADVISORY
CATEGORY SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER WOULD
RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THIS FAR OUT THINGS CAN
CERTAINLY CHANGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY TRENDED FARTHER NORTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS SUPPRESSED PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.
BEYOND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...THE GFS/GEM SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SNOWS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS A QUASI ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION LONG ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GIVING US
ONE LAST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WE MIGHT BREAK THE COLD AND ACTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS.
WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS WITH EACH SYSTEM BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BEGIN TO ADD UP. WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST SYSTEM AND INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOWS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK/KBIS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. KJMS WILL REMAIN MVFR TO IFR THROUGH AROUND 14-15 UTC.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
640 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN
AREA OF MVFR-IFR CLOUDS FROM BOTTINEAU TO HARVEY AND WISHEK WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MADE SOME MINOR SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND BUMPED UP SOUTHERLY
WINDS JUST A LITTLE THIS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND PUSH NORTH. THE HRRR IS
DOING A REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING THE CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS IN
THE 925MB MOISTURE FIELD. THE HRRR HAS THE AREA OF STRATUS
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 8 AM.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY ABOUT 11 AM. WINDS THEN SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FAVORED FOR
A NICE QUICK WARM UP BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND A WARM FRONT
NEARBY THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOW
50S. THE NORTH SHOULD REMAIN COOLER AS THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
EARLIER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE HOLD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN PERIOD
AND USED A MODEL BLEND WITH WPC QPF FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...00 UTC FRIDAY MODELS HAVE FLIPPED A BIT
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WHILE THE GEM HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF.
HOWEVER A BLEND STILL YIELDS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE...CLOSE TO WPC
FORECAST AND SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A 120KT UPPER LEVEL JET DROPPING
INTO MONTANA FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THIS SAME AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT TAPERING QUICKLY TO LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION FROM AROUND SHERWOOD TO RUGBY AND CARRINGTON.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. THERE ARE DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW...BUT WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS. THIS SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES WHICH INDUCES SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MONDAY REGION TUESDAY. AGAIN...WIDESPREAD
SNOWS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY SUB ADVISORY
CATEGORY SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER WOULD
RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THIS FAR OUT THINGS CAN
CERTAINLY CHANGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY TRENDED FARTHER NORTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS SUPPRESSED PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.
BEYOND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...THE GFS/GEM SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SNOWS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS A QUASI ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION LONG ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GIVING US
ONE LAST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WE MIGHT BREAK THE COLD AND ACTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS.
WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS WITH EACH SYSTEM BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BEGIN TO ADD UP. WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST SYSTEM AND INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOWS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK/KBIS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. KJMS WILL REMAIN MVFR TO IFR THROUGH AROUND 14-15 UTC.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION WEATHER DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN...LESS LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
HIGH...LOWERING TO AROUND 7000-7500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY
WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP AS OF MID AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OVER PORTIONS OF
GILA...PINAL...AND NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY WHERE A FLOOD ADVISORY
WAS IN EFFECT...INCLUDED FAR EAST PORTIONS OF THE METRO. THIS
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
LESSER SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVER THE REST OF THE PHOENIX AREA WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. MODEL CAPE STILL LOOKS QUITE MODEST BUT HELD ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...SHOWERS SHOULD
START TO TREND DOWNWARD. HOWEVER...THERE IS ANOTHER VORT MAX OVER
SONORA WHICH MAY BRUSH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND KEEP SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING. RAP SHOWS A SEPARATE SMALLER VORT MAX MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN BAJA INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FOR A
RESUMPTION OF LIGHT RAIN IN OUR WESTERN AREAS. THUS HELD ON TO POPS
FOR TONIGHT...LOWER NUMBERS WESTERN AREAS. OF NOTE...MOST MODELS
INDICATE THE BRUNT OF THE SONORA VORT MAX TRACKING EAST OF THE
PHOENIX AREA. YET ANOTHER VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND BEGINS AFFECTING SOUTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP
FROM THAT FEATURE BUT DEPICT SOME NOTABLE QPF SPREADING WELL INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THUS WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS BEFORE A DOWNTREND BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...ANTICIPATE LESS DYNAMICAL LIFT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS...DUE AT LEAST IN PART TO LOSS OF
UPPER DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE. ACCORDINGLY...ANTICIPATE LESS PRECIP
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THAN WE HAD IN THE PRECEDING 24 HOURS.
ANTICIPATE NUISANCE FLOODING TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL AREAS...LESS OVER VALLEY FLOORS OF THE CENTRAL
DESERTS. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT WE COULD HAVE A LITTLE BIT MORE
INSTABILITY IF CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH. NAM HAS BEEN DEPICTING THIS
IDEA. THUS HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXITING SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN AND THUS POPS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND WARMER DAY. PATCHY MORNING FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS TO HINDER THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING NECESSARY. PARED BACK ON THE AREAL COVERAGE TO
REMOVE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS
SOME DRY ADVECTION MOVES IN THERE. THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE
WEST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AND WE
CAN EXPECT DESERT HIGHS TO REACH BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WARMER WESTERN DESERTS RISING TO NEAR 80
BY NEXT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
BROAD UPPER LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. THROUGH 08Z SAT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...MEANING
CIGS BETWEEN 15 HUNDRED AND 3 THSD FT AGL...AND VSBYS 3-5 MI WITH
SCT LGT SHWRS. FROM 08Z SAT TO 14Z SAT...RAIN INCREASING. CIGS AND
VSBYS OCNL IFR...MEANING 7-12 HUNDRED FT AGL AND VSBYS NEAR 2
MILES...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THROUGH 14Z SAT...CIGS 5-7 THSD AGL...ISOLD LGT SHWR.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRIER AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY AND
GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ/CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
240 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN...LESS LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
HIGH...LOWERING TO AROUND 7000-7500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY
WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP AS OF MID AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OVER PORTIONS OF
GILA...PINAL...AND NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY WHERE A FLOOD ADVISORY
WAS IN EFFECT...INCLUDED FAR EAST PORTIONS OF THE METRO. THIS
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
LESSER SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVER THE REST OF THE PHOENIX AREA WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. MODEL CAPE STILL LOOKS QUITE MODEST BUT HELD ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...SHOWERS SHOULD
START TO TREND DOWNWARD. HOWEVER...THERE IS ANOTHER VORT MAX OVER
SONORA WHICH MAY BRUSH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND KEEP SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING. RAP SHOWS A SEPARATE SMALLER VORT MAX MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN BAJA INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FOR A
RESUMPTION OF LIGHT RAIN IN OUR WESTERN AREAS. THUS HELD ON TO POPS
FOR TONIGHT...LOWER NUMBERS WESTERN AREAS. OF NOTE...MOST MODELS
INDICATE THE BRUNT OF THE SONORA VORT MAX TRACKING EAST OF THE
PHOENIX AREA. YET ANOTHER VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND BEGINS AFFECTING SOUTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP
FROM THAT FEATURE BUT DEPICT SOME NOTABLE QPF SPREADING WELL INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THUS WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS BEFORE A DOWNTREND BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...ANTICIPATE LESS DYNAMICAL LIFT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS...DUE AT LEAST IN PART TO LOSS OF
UPPER DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE. ACCORDINGLY...ANTICIPATE LESS PRECIP
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THAN WE HAD IN THE PRECEDING 24 HOURS.
ANTICIPATE NUISANCE FLOODING TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL AREAS...LESS OVER VALLEY FLOORS OF THE CENTRAL
DESERTS. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT WE COULD HAVE A LITTLE BIT MORE
INSTABILITY IF CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH. NAM HAS BEEN DEPICTING THIS
IDEA. THUS HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXITING SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN AND THUS POPS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND WARMER DAY. PATCHY MORNING FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS TO HINDER THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING NECESSARY. PARED BACK ON THE AREAL COVERAGE TO
REMOVE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS
SOME DRY ADVECTION MOVES IN THERE. THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE
WEST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AND WE
CAN EXPECT DESERT HIGHS TO REACH BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WARMER WESTERN DESERTS RISING TO NEAR 80
BY NEXT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 20Z WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. IN THE WAKE OF THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
BETWEEN 25-35 HUNDRED FT (WIDESPREAD MVFR) WITH VSBYS BETWEEN 3-5
MILES AS RAIN DIMINISHES TO LIGHT SCT SHWRS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...HOWEVER ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS
IN CIGS/VSBYS (BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z SAT).
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WIDESPREAD CIGS BETWEEN 6-8 THSD AGL WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHWRS
THROUGH 12Z SAT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRIER AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY AND
GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ/CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1140 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION WEATHER DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. WE ANTICIPATE
RAINFALL TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD TODAY WITH MORE HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...LOWERING TO
AROUND 7000-7500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW
WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAS TRENDED DOWN OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. ACTIVITY HAS ALSO BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD OVER METRO PHOENIX BUT REMAINS MORE WIDESPREAD OVER GILA
COUNTY. THE DOWNTREND LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT OF A VORT
MAX NOW CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR THE CAL-NEV-ARI BORDERS. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH IS CHANGING SHAPE DUE TO THE VARIOUS VORT LOBES
DUMBELLING AROUND. OTHER AREAS OF INTEREST WITHIN THE TROUGH INCLUDE
THE SOUTHERN END NEAR/WEST OF THE BAJA SPUR AND ANOTHER LOBE/VORT
MAX CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER VORT MAX TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT BUT OVERALL...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED VORT LOBES WILL
LARGELY MISS OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT...PER
LATEST MODELS. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND ADVECTION OF THOSE SHOWERS INTO OUR AREA MAY
OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...MODEL CAPE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE MEAGER FROM THE GFS AND
BETTER FROM THE NAM. RAP IS EVEN BETTER THAN THE NAM BUT STILL UNDER
200 J/KG. HRRR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION AS WELL. THUS
WILL HOLD ON THE SLIGHT CHANCES. NAM SHOWS A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
CAPE FOR SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS IS STILL MEAGER. AS FOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM...MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS...MORE NOTICEABLY IN OUR WESTERN AREAS. MORE
LATER.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 255 AM MST/155 AM PST...
AT 2 AM...VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN JUST OFF THE
NRN BAJA COAST...SPREADING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO ARIZONA AND PORTIONS OF FAR SERN CA. CURRENT BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATER IMAGERY SHOWED 1.25-1.5 INCHES OF PWAT MOVING NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA...POISED TO MOVE NORTH INTO ARIZONA DURING THE
DAY TODAY. IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE STREAM OF CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...AND THE LATEST 1.3 DEG RADAR
LOOP SHOWED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WITH AREAL COVERAGE VIRTUALLY 100 PERCENT.
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...VIRTUALLY EVERY MARICOPA COUNTY FLOOD
CONTROL DISTRICT GAGE HAS PICKED UP MEASURABLE RAIN...WITH MOST
TOTALS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. PHOENIX HAS
PICKED UP 0.36 INCHES SO FAR WITH THIS EVENT...AND THE PERIODS OF
EXPECTED HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAVE YET TO OCCUR.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WET WEATHER SYSTEM...INCLUDING
DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS. ALL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR AN
UPPER CLOSED LOW TO FORM OVER FAR SERN CA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
AND AS THE LOW SPINS UP THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. POPS WILL
STAY VERY HIGH TODAY...LIKELY OUT WEST AND CATEGORICAL OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST ZONES...WITH BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
CONTINUING FOR THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE
BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH TODAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY OVER THE
CENTRAL DESERTS TODAY SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY EASTWARD. SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BECOME ENHANCED. GIVEN ALL OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPS
TODAY WILL STAY WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ TO HOVER IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO VERY SLOWLY TRANSLATE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND AS IT
DOES SO THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF ENHANCED LIFT/UVV AS VORT
SPOKES/LOBES ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW. WITH MOISTURE OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY...
PWAT VALUES REMAINING BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH...THE CONTINUED
DYNAMICS FROM THE VORT LOBES WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER MOST THE
REGION AND POPS WILL STAY ELEVATED. CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH POPS
DROPPING INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY OVER SERN CA DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL...WE ARE LOOKING AT STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ENDING SATURDAY
EVENING RANGING FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...TO OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS INCLUDING THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA. HIGHER AMOUNTS...1.25 TO NEARLY 2 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. FOR
NOW WE EXPECT RAIN TO BE CONTINUAL AND NOT LOCALLY HEAVY OR INTENSE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. THERE MAY BE AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE SOME URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS TIME WEARS ON AND
WE CAN SIMPLY ISSUE FLOOD ADVISORY PRODUCTS AS NEEDED TO COVER THIS
CONTINGENCY.
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AND WILL CHANGE
LITTLE FROM TODAYS EXPECTED READINGS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND WARMER DAY. PATCHY MORNING FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS TO HINDER THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING NECESSARY. THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE
WEST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AND WE
CAN EXPECT DESERT HIGHS TO REACH BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WARMER WESTERN DESERTS RISING TO NEAR 80
BY NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 20Z WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. IN THE WAKE OF THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
BETWEEN 25-35 HUNDRED FT (WIDESPREAD MVFR) WITH VSBYS BETWEEN 3-5
MILES AS RAIN DIMINISHES TO LIGHT SCT SHWRS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...HOWEVER ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS
IN CIGS/VSBYS (BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z SAT).
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WIDESPREAD CIGS BETWEEN 6-8 THSD AGL WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHWRS
THROUGH 12Z SAT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRIER AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY AND
GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
950 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. WE ANTICIPATE
RAINFALL TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD TODAY WITH MORE HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...LOWERING TO
AROUND 7000-7500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW
WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAS TRENDED DOWN OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. ACTIVITY HAS ALSO BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD OVER METRO PHOENIX BUT REMAINS MORE WIDESPREAD OVER GILA
COUNTY. THE DOWNTREND LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT OF A VORT
MAX NOW CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR THE CAL-NEV-ARI BORDERS. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH IS CHANGING SHAPE DUE TO THE VARIOUS VORT LOBES
DUMBELLING AROUND. OTHER AREAS OF INTEREST WITHIN THE TROUGH INCLUDE
THE SOUTHERN END NEAR/WEST OF THE BAJA SPUR AND ANOTHER LOBE/VORT
MAX CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER VORT MAX TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT BUT OVERALL...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED VORT LOBES WILL
LARGELY MISS OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT...PER
LATEST MODELS. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND ADVECTION OF THOSE SHOWERS INTO OUR AREA MAY
OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...MODEL CAPE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE MEAGER FROM THE GFS AND
BETTER FROM THE NAM. RAP IS EVEN BETTER THAN THE NAM BUT STILL UNDER
200 J/KG. HRRR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION AS WELL. THUS
WILL HOLD ON THE SLIGHT CHANCES. NAM SHOWS A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
CAPE FOR SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS IS STILL MEAGER. AS FOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM...MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS...MORE NOTICEABLY IN OUR WESTERN AREAS. MORE
LATER.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 255 AM MST/155 AM PST...
AT 2 AM...VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN JUST OFF THE
NRN BAJA COAST...SPREADING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO ARIZONA AND PORTIONS OF FAR SERN CA. CURRENT BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATER IMAGERY SHOWED 1.25-1.5 INCHES OF PWAT MOVING NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA...POISED TO MOVE NORTH INTO ARIZONA DURING THE
DAY TODAY. IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE STREAM OF CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...AND THE LATEST 1.3 DEG RADAR
LOOP SHOWED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WITH AREAL COVERAGE VIRTUALLY 100 PERCENT.
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...VIRTUALLY EVERY MARICOPA COUNTY FLOOD
CONTROL DISTRICT GAGE HAS PICKED UP MEASURABLE RAIN...WITH MOST
TOTALS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. PHOENIX HAS
PICKED UP 0.36 INCHES SO FAR WITH THIS EVENT...AND THE PERIODS OF
EXPECTED HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAVE YET TO OCCUR.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WET WEATHER SYSTEM...INCLUDING
DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS. ALL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR AN
UPPER CLOSED LOW TO FORM OVER FAR SERN CA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
AND AS THE LOW SPINS UP THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. POPS WILL
STAY VERY HIGH TODAY...LIKELY OUT WEST AND CATEGORICAL OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST ZONES...WITH BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
CONTINUING FOR THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE
BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH TODAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY OVER THE
CENTRAL DESERTS TODAY SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY EASTWARD. SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BECOME ENHANCED. GIVEN ALL OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPS
TODAY WILL STAY WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ TO HOVER IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO VERY SLOWLY TRANSLATE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND AS IT
DOES SO THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF ENHANCED LIFT/UVV AS VORT
SPOKES/LOBES ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW. WITH MOISTURE OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY...
PWAT VALUES REMAINING BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH...THE CONTINUED
DYNAMICS FROM THE VORT LOBES WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER MOST THE
REGION AND POPS WILL STAY ELEVATED. CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH POPS
DROPPING INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY OVER SERN CA DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL...WE ARE LOOKING AT STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ENDING SATURDAY
EVENING RANGING FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...TO OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS INCLUDING THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA. HIGHER AMOUNTS...1.25 TO NEARLY 2 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. FOR
NOW WE EXPECT RAIN TO BE CONTINUAL AND NOT LOCALLY HEAVY OR INTENSE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. THERE MAY BE AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE SOME URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS TIME WEARS ON AND
WE CAN SIMPLY ISSUE FLOOD ADVISORY PRODUCTS AS NEEDED TO COVER THIS
CONTINGENCY.
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AND WILL CHANGE
LITTLE FROM TODAYS EXPECTED READINGS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND WARMER DAY. PATCHY MORNING FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS TO HINDER THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING NECESSARY. THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE
WEST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AND WE
CAN EXPECT DESERT HIGHS TO REACH BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WARMER WESTERN DESERTS RISING TO NEAR 80
BY NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...PERIODS OF
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO SATURDAY.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY AOB 6KFT THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND
PERIODICALLY LOWER BLO 2KFT...AS SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. REDUCTIONS IN VSBY DOWN TO NEAR 1SM WERE SEEN
EARLY THIS MORNING. PREVAILING VSBY THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 6SM...THOUGH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN MAY CAUSE RESTRICTIONS LESS THAN 3SM. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INSERTION IN TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...BUT COULD BECOME GUSTY...SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE
AREA OF TAF STATIONS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP ONCE RAIN HAS ENDED. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM 3500 TO
5KFT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS AND WILL FAVOR A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRIER AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY AND
GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
945 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
INTO SATURDAY. MINOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR DUE TO PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE ABOVE 8000 FEET...OR
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. EXPECT MUCH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THIS WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED A BAND OF 30-55 DBZ ECHOES JUST
EAST OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA...OR MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
COCHISE COUNTY EXTENDING NWD INTO SRN GRAHAM COUNTY. OTHER MUCH
WEAKER ECHOES WERE WEST OF TUCSON...OR ACROSS THE TOHONO O`ODHAM
NATION AND SRN PINAL COUNTY. MOVEMENT OF THESE ECHOES WAS TO THE NE
AT 20-30 MPH.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NEARLY 4.25 INCHES HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT PARK TANK...OR ON THE NRN PORTION OF THE RINCON MTNS.
ALSO...MOUNT LEMMON HAS MEASURED 3.58 INCHES...AND NRN GREENLEE
COUNTY NORTH OF CLIFTON HAD RECEIVED 2.64 INCHES. FINALLY...ABOUT 2
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE DRAGOON MOUNTAINS AND HUACHUCA
MOUNTAINS IN WRN COCHISE COUNTY.
30/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.18 INCHES IS THE
HIGHEST PRECIP WATER VALUE ON RECORD FOR JANUARY...BREAKING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 1.12 INCHES SET ON JANUARY 9, 2009.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SWRN CONUS WITH 563 DM LOW
CENTERED NEAR SAN DIEGO WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO SAT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...SEVERAL RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS
COCHISE/GREENLEE/GRAHAM COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON. HOWEVER...THE RUC
HRRR AS WELL AS THE UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM AND WRF-GFS SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WEST TO SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON. THIS ACTIVITY THEN HOLDS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH TODAY...ESSENTIALLY ABOVE 8000
FEET.
ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE INHERITED OFFICIAL
FORECAST. WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN WILL OCCUR INTO SAT...WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED TO LOCALES ABOVE 8000 FEET.
THE AWIPS PRODUCT PHXWSWTWC /WMO HEADER WWUS45 KTWC/ CONTAINS MORE
INFORMATION. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER
DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/18Z.
WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECKS OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE
4-8K FT AGL. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM LOW CEILINGS WILL OCCUR DUE TO SHOWERS.
SURFACE WIND INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE ELY/SELY AT
5-15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...MOUNT GRAHAM...AND THE
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS NEAR TUCSON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST TO SOUTH OF TUCSON SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.
EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS TO RESUME THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS HAS SETTLED IN
A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED...WHICH HAS LIMITED
THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT EAST. THAT BEING SAID...
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THE AREA HAS SEEN SOME TIGHTENING OF THE
GRADIENT AND IT/S RESULTANT WIND INCREASE. THESE WINDS SHOULD STAY
PRESENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP
A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
TOMORROW. TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
WHICH WILL SHUT THIS MOISTURE TAP OFF...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR CONTINUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEN THE AREA SHOULD SEE SOME
DISSIPATION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST/EAST THROUGH SUNDAY EARLY
EVENING.
FOR THIS MORNING GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED...WHICH THE 00Z SOUNDING SUPPORTS.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPPED SNOW LEVELS SOME THOUGH THIS REALLY DIDN/T
IMPACT THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MUCH. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW
LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO ABOUT 8500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...8000
FEET BY THIS EVENING...AND 7000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THOUGH THIS STORM WILL CONTINUALLY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW TO THE
AREA...ONE CONCERN IS THE DRY SLOT PROGGED FOR THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES. THIS COULD IMPACT QPF
VALUES THOUGH DIDN/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO LOWER THEM TOO MUCH AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. LATEST HRRR
SOLUTION DOES SHOW A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT WEST DURING THIS
TIME...THOUGH THIS IS MAINLY IN COVERAGE. THE IMPACT OF THE DRY SLOT
WILL LESSEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW WOBBLES SOUTHEAST SOME. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE THE
EFFICIENCY OF THESE SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
GENERALLY SPEAKING HAVE CONTINUED THE QPF/SNOW TOTALS ADVERTISED
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS WELL AS TIMING. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
AN INCREASE OVER MT GRAHAM TO ACCOUNT FOR TODAY/S EXPECTED
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ510-511
ABOVE 7000 FEET.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON MST
SATURDAY FOR AZZ514 ABOVE 7000 FEET.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEADOWS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
155 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PARTS
OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CLEARING AND WARMING TREND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR SKIES NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SE CA THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIKE THE HRRR WAS SUGGESTING EARLIER...SO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF LA COUNTY AND PARTS
OF VENTURA COUNTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER-LOW
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES LINGERING OVER THE SAN
GABRIELS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SALINAS VALLEY AGAIN
TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON THE LA
COAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS A WEAK EDDY SPINS UP.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE AND A RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
CA...SETTING UPPER NE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE THE NE WINDS WILL PEAK
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT PLANNING ON PUTTING ANY WIND
ADVISORIES OUT AT THIS TIME...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. RIGHT NOW JUST EXPECTING
SOME ISOLATED NE GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE LA MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.
SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH FEWER CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW...WITH FURTHER WARMING ON SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S TO THE UPPER 70S FOR
THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SLIGHT COOLING POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS A LITTLE...BUT OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG RANGE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE
BUILDS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO TAKE A RUN
AT THE CENTRAL COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A RIDGE DEVELOPS
AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO THE CENTRAL COAST FOR FRIDAY IF THE LATEST ECMWF IS RIGHT. FOR
NOW KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION...30/1800Z...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA
WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE NORTH BY 31/07Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS BECOME MODERATE NORTHEAST AFTER 31/20Z.
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 31/06Z.
FREEZING LEVEL WAS AROUND 8KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER LITTLE
SATURDAY MORNING. MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH
31/08Z AND AFTER 31/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT. NO MARINE
INVERSION THIS MORNING AND A WEAK INVERSION IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUD
TOPS NEAR 2KFT SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS NONE.
KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
31/03Z AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 30/21Z. THERE
IS A CHANCE CIGS 015 BETWEEN 31/13-31/19Z.
KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
31/08Z AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 30/22Z.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.MARINE...30/200 PM...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WIND AND SEAS AROUND
10 FEET FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL FROM 10-60 NM AND FROM THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA ORIENTED
BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE FETCH AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1013 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE. JUST KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN PARTS OF VENTURA COUNTY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
DRYING TREND. THE HRRR DOES AS WELL...BUT IT ALSO SHOWS A LITTLE
FLARE UP OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...SO EASTERN VENTURA
COUNTY AND MUCH OF LA COUNTY COULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTY HAVE BEEN LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05"...EXCEPT SOME
0.25" AMOUNTS IN THE SAN GABRIELS). WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT. OVERALL TREND FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS
WILL BE A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY SINCE
LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN ANEMIC. WELL BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH EVERYWHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST WILL BECOME MORE
ELONGATED AND STRETCH MORE NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN HALF....WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION LIKELY UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN OVER 7000 FT TODAY...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO
6500 FT EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY SNOWFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT A FEW INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE EASTERN SAN
GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BY
TONIGHT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
BY LATE SAT MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
ACROSS LA/VTU MTNS AND WIND PRONE LA/VTU COUNTY PASSES AND CANYONS
AND ACROSS THE OXNARD PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. BUT WILL
BE CLOSE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL BE A LIMITED WINDOW OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A WARM UP ON SATURDAY BUT
MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS DUE
TO OFFSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN OVER BAJA WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY ACROSS
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS INTO THE MID 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MARINE LAYER STRATUS ISSUES...EXCEPT FOR LA
COUNTY COAST SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION
STRONG UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND A DIRTY RIDGE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY N OF POINT CONCEPTION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WINDS AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN PRETTY
NEUTRAL. THAT BEING SAID...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
WARMING UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 80 BY WED/THU. HAVE ADDED SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME AND ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...30/1800Z...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA
WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE NORTH BY 31/07Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS BECOME MODERATE NORTHEAST AFTER 31/20Z.
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 31/06Z.
FREEZING LEVEL WAS AROUND 8KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER LITTLE
SATURDAY MORNING. MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH
31/08Z AND AFTER 31/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT. NO MARINE
INVERSION THIS MORNING AND A WEAK INVERSION IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUD
TOPS NEAR 2KFT SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS NONE.
KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
31/03Z AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 30/21Z. THERE
IS A CHANCE CIGS 015 BETWEEN 31/13-31/19Z.
KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
31/08Z AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 30/22Z.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.MARINE...30/900 AM...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WIND AND SEAS AROUND
10 FEET FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL FROM 10-60 NM AND FROM THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA ORIENTED
BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE FETCH AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KAPLAN/SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...30
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
954 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE. JUST KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN PARTS OF VENTURA COUNTY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
DRYING TREND. THE HRRR DOES AS WELL...BUT IT ALSO SHOWS A LITTLE
FLARE UP OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...SO EASTERN VENTURA
COUNTY AND MUCH OF LA COUNTY COULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTY HAVE BEEN LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05"...EXCEPT SOME
0.25" AMOUNTS IN THE SAN GABRIELS). WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT. OVERALL TREND FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS
WILL BE A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY SINCE
LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN ANEMIC. WELL BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH EVERYWHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST WILL BECOME MORE
ELONGATED AND STRETCH MORE NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN HALF....WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION LIKELY UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN OVER 7000 FT TODAY...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO
6500 FT EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY SNOWFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT A FEW INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE EASTERN SAN
GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BY
TONIGHT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
BY LATE SAT MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
ACROSS LA/VTU MTNS AND WIND PRONE LA/VTU COUNTY PASSES AND CANYONS
AND ACROSS THE OXNARD PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. BUT WILL
BE CLOSE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL BE A LIMITED WINDOW OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A WARM UP ON SATURDAY BUT
MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS DUE
TO OFFSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN OVER BAJA WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY ACROSS
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS INTO THE MID 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MARINE LAYER STRATUS ISSUES...EXCEPT FOR LA
COUNTY COAST SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION
STRONG UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND A DIRTY RIDGE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY N OF POINT CONCEPTION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WINDS AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN PRETTY
NEUTRAL. THAT BEING SAID...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
WARMING UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 80 BY WED/THU. HAVE ADDED SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME AND ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...30/1045Z...
AT 0910Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX...WITH THE
INVERSION TOP AT 1100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES CELSIUS.
OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. UPPER LOW SPINNING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS LOS ANGELES
COUNTY...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE ONLY ISSUE
THIS MORNING IS ANTICIPATED TO BE KPRB WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF VLIFR
CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.
LATE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 KNOTS
DEVELOPING.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.
&&
.MARINE...30/900 AM...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WIND AND SEAS AROUND
10 FEET FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL FROM 10-60 NM AND FROM THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA ORIENTED
BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE FETCH AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KAPLAN/SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/30
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE. JUST KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN PARTS OF VENTURA COUNTY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
DRYING TREND. THE HRRR DOES AS WELL...BUT IT ALSO SHOWS A LITTLE
FLARE UP OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...SO EASTERN VENTURA
COUNTY AND MUCH OF LA COUNTY COULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTY HAVE BEEN LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05"...EXCEPT SOME
0.25" AMOUNTS IN THE SAN GABRIELS). WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT. OVERALL TREND FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS
WILL BE A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY SINCE
LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN ANEMIC. WELL BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH EVERYWHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST WILL BECOME MORE
ELONGATED AND STRETCH MORE NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN HALF....WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION LIKELY UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN OVER 7000 FT TODAY...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO
6500 FT EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY SNOWFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT A FEW INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE EASTERN SAN
GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BY
TONIGHT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
BY LATE SAT MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
ACROSS LA/VTU MTNS AND WIND PRONE LA/VTU COUNTY PASSES AND CANYONS
AND ACROSS THE OXNARD PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. BUT WILL
BE CLOSE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL BE A LIMITED WINDOW OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A WARM UP ON SATURDAY BUT
MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS DUE
TO OFFSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN OVER BAJA WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY ACROSS
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS INTO THE MID 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MARINE LAYER STRATUS ISSUES...EXCEPT FOR LA
COUNTY COAST SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION
STRONG UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND A DIRTY RIDGE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY N OF POINT CONCEPTION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WINDS AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN PRETTY
NEUTRAL. THAT BEING SAID...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
WARMING UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 80 BY WED/THU. HAVE ADDED SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME AND ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...30/1045Z...
AT 0910Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX...WITH THE
INVERSION TOP AT 1100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES CELSIUS.
OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. UPPER LOW SPINNING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS LOS ANGELES
COUNTY...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE ONLY ISSUE
THIS MORNING IS ANTICIPATED TO BE KPRB WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF VLIFR
CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.
LATE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 KNOTS
DEVELOPING.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.
&&
.MARINE...30/215 AM...
FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
ONLY LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A 30%
CHANCE OF NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY NEAR SHORE
FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KAPLAN/SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
308 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM I300 TO I308 APPEARS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. BASED ON
15Z AND 18Z VERIFICATION EARLIER TODAY WILL THEREFORE BE USING THE
THE I300 TO I308 LEVEL OVERNIGHT AS GUIDE FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION AS IMPROVING MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST RAP THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FROM 03Z AND
09Z SATURDAY. AFTER 09Z ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEGINS TO DEVELOPS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS SO THIS PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, OR AT LEAST BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED, EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH THE TOP DOWN APPROACH FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE BOTH SUPPORT MAINLY A COLD RAIN EVENT FOR ALL
BUT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH, OR BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. BASED ON THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
SHOULD A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPS.
AREAS OF FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT BASED ON THE
MOISTURE PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT
10 TO 15 MPH.
ON THURSDAY SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY GIVEN THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA. AS A RESULT HAVE FAVORED THE WARMER
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. FURTHER
EAST MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE SO WILL FAVOR
THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM NEAR
40 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 40S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO SLOW
TO TURN COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF RUNS MAINTAIN OUR AREA ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY UNTIL MID EVENING SATURDAY
WHEN HE FRONT IS ABLE TO BE FORCED THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
BY THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM. EVENT HE IMMEDIATE POST FRONTAL AIR
APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION, AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL COLD ENOUGH ACROSS A LARGE ENOUGH PORTION OF THE AREA UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE UPPER STRETCHING AND DEFORMATION HAS
BASICALLY CEASED.
THE COLDEST AIR IN A FEW WEEKS SHOULD THEN BE NOTICED BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE, DRIER AIR AND
GOOD LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL COOLING OF A COLDER DRIER AIRMASS IS
POSSIBLE. THE MOS OUTPUT FROM AT LEAST THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS ARE
THE COLDEST WITH POTENTIAL FOR EVEN SINGLE DIGITS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL OUTPUT WAS
NOT FAR FROM THESE COLDER SOLUTION AS WELL, WHICH WAS USED AS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. A STRONG WARMING TREND ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NOTICED HEADING INTO MID WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY BACK INTO THE 60S BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER JET/SHORTWAVE/COLD
FRONT AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
NAM AND RAP WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH VFR CEILINGS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. HRRR AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT GCK AND DDC AROUND 21Z FRIDAY AND
THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z SATURDAY AS SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS. AFTER 06Z CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS THE
LOWER LEVELS SATURATES. AT HYS MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOWARDS 06Z SATURDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 44 33 36 / 80 60 60 10
GCK 34 46 33 37 / 70 50 50 0
EHA 33 44 35 40 / 80 50 50 0
LBL 34 44 37 41 / 80 60 60 10
HYS 33 42 28 29 / 80 50 60 0
P28 36 42 38 38 / 80 70 70 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
148 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM I300 TO I308 APPEARS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. BASED ON
15Z AND 18Z VERIFICATION EARLIER TODAY WILL THEREFORE BE USING THE
THE I300 TO I308 LEVEL OVERNIGHT AS GUIDE FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION AS IMPROVING MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST RAP THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FROM 03Z AND
09Z SATURDAY. AFTER 09Z ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEGINS TO DEVELOPS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS SO THIS PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, OR AT LEAST BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED, EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH THE TOP DOWN APPROACH FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE BOTH SUPPORT MAINLY A COLD RAIN EVENT FOR ALL
BUT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH, OR BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. BASED ON THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
SHOULD A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPS.
AREAS OF FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT BASED ON THE
MOISTURE PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT
10 TO 15 MPH.
ON THURSDAY SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY GIVEN THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA. AS A RESULT HAVE FAVORED THE WARMER
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. FURTHER
EAST MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE SO WILL FAVOR
THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM NEAR
40 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 40S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HAS SLOWED A LITTLE, AND
WILL NOT CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
THEREFORE, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANGE TO ALL LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GO BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRAGS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
EASTERN CWA SATURDAY, AND DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM CLEARS
TO THE EAST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, DUE TO THE SLOWING OF THE FRONT`S SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF I-70, AND THE
MIDDLE 40S DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SUNDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER WITH CLOUDS, EARLY PRECIP AND WIND SHIFTING
SHARPLY TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING INTO THE 18G28MPH RANGE.
MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST TO A
MORE WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL START TO WARM
AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF KANSAS WILL REACH TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHILE THE EAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER IN THE GRIP
OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TUESDAY
MAY BE THE NEXT GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS
TUESDAY WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING AT
AROUND 10 MPH TO NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 20 MPH.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
SHOULD CROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND BRING IN
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND COLD AIR WITH IT. NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THERE MAY BE FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SUPERMODEL ONLY
PLACE 15 PERCENT POPS, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND I THINK
THAT IS ABOUT RIGHT. AN UPPER BROAD TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER
THE MIDWEST, AND WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE COLD
AIR SETTLING IN.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GO INTO WARMING TREND, WITH THURSDAY`S
HIGH`S AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER
40S IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR SAINT JOHN AND PRATT. IF THE PATTERN
DOES NOT CHANGE, NEXT FRIDAY COULD BE IN THE 60S IN MANY
LOCATIONS.
THIS IS THE LAST SHIFT OF MY 34 YEAR CAREER. IT HAS BEEN NICE.
SIGNING OFF....
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
NAM AND RAP WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH VFR CEILINGS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. HRRR AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT GCK AND DDC AROUND 21Z FRIDAY AND
THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z SATURDAY AS SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS. AFTER 06Z CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS THE
LOWER LEVELS SATURATES. AT HYS MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOWARDS 06Z SATURDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 44 33 35 / 80 60 60 10
GCK 34 46 34 35 / 70 50 50 0
EHA 33 44 34 37 / 60 50 50 0
LBL 34 44 36 37 / 80 60 60 10
HYS 33 42 28 32 / 80 50 60 0
P28 36 42 38 38 / 80 70 70 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1122 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
AT 12Z FRIDAY A 500MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. JUST EAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS A
250MB JET STREAK STRETCHED FROM NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL JET WAS APPEARS TO
BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AT THE 700MB WAS DRAWING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DODGE CITY AND AMARILLO SOUNDINGS AT 12Z FRIDAY
INDICATED A DECENT DRY LAYER WAS LOCATED IN 850MB TO 700MB LAYER
BELOW THIS AREA OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ALLOWING CLOUDY SKIES TO ENVELOP WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
PRECIPITATION TO START TO FALL IN THE MID LEVELS. HOWEVER, WITH
THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DRY THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY
EVAPORATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND LEADING TO VIRGA TO BE
OBSERVED. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SATURATED. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE, POSSIBLY ONLY FALLING AS
DRIZZLE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS WHEN THE PRECIPITATION COULD MIX OR TURN OVER TO SNOW
BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND MOST LIKELY MELT ON
CONTACT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND FREEZING (32F).
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HAS SLOWED A LITTLE, AND
WILL NOT CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
THEREFORE, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANGE TO ALL LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GO BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRAGS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
EASTERN CWA SATURDAY, AND DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM CLEARS
TO THE EAST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, DUE TO THE SLOWING OF THE FRONT`S SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF I-70, AND THE
MIDDLE 40S DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SUNDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER WITH CLOUDS, EARLY PRECIP AND WIND SHIFTING
SHARPLY TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING INTO THE 18G28MPH RANGE.
MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST TO A
MORE WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL START TO WARM
AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF KANSAS WILL REACH TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHILE THE EAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER IN THE GRIP
OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TUESDAY
MAY BE THE NEXT GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS
TUESDAY WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING AT
AROUND 10 MPH TO NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 20 MPH.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
SHOULD CROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND BRING IN
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND COLD AIR WITH IT. NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THERE MAY BE FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SUPERMODEL ONLY
PLACE 15 PERCENT POPS, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND I THINK
THAT IS ABOUT RIGHT. AN UPPER BROAD TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER
THE MIDWEST, AND WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE COLD
AIR SETTLING IN.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GO INTO WARMING TREND, WITH THURSDAY`S
HIGH`S AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER
40S IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR SAINT JOHN AND PRATT. IF THE PATTERN
DOES NOT CHANGE, NEXT FRIDAY COULD BE IN THE 60S IN MANY
LOCATIONS.
THIS IS THE LAST SHIFT OF MY 34 YEAR CAREER. IT HAS BEEN NICE.
SIGNING OFF....
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
NAM AND RAP WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH VFR CEILINGS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. HRRR AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT GCK AND DDC AROUND 21Z FRIDAY AND
THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z SATURDAY AS SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS. AFTER 06Z CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS THE
LOWER LEVELS SATURATES. AT HYS MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOWARDS 06Z SATURDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 45 33 44 33 / 20 80 60 60
GCK 46 33 43 34 / 30 70 50 50
EHA 46 32 45 34 / 40 60 50 50
LBL 46 33 46 36 / 30 80 60 60
HYS 47 32 42 28 / 20 80 60 60
P28 47 34 44 38 / 10 70 70 70
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
432 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY INTO THE NE CONUS RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER SRN
MANITOBA. THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED WAA PATTERN SUPPORTED SOME LIGHT
SNOW FROM FAR NRN MN INTO NW ONTARIO WITH VSBY INTO THE 1-3SM RANGE.
AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. BACKING WINDS TO SW OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND W OVER
THE ERN LAKE HAVE PUSHED THE LES BANDS OFFSHORE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES NEAR GRAND MARAIS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN INTO THIS EVENING AS THE
AS THE SHRTWV APPROACHES. UPSTREAM TRENDS AND MODELS FCST 285K-290K
ISENTROPIC LIFT...SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD
THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN BTWN 03Z-09Z. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
AND DRY LOW LEVELS DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE PCPN...QPF OF 0.05 OR
LOWER WITH SLR VALUES NEAR 20/1 WOULD ONLY RESULT IN SNOW AMOUNTS OF
AN INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL CONV INCREASES ALONG THE SFC
FRONT/TROUGH AND 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -12C...THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO NW UPPER MI THAT MAY BRING
TOTALS INTO THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
SAT...THE AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONV WITH THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NRN CWA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -20C BY 00Z
SUN...A QUICK TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LVL
NORTHERLY FLOW AND FALLING INVERSIONS AT OR BELOW 4KFT WILL LIMIT
LES INTENSITY THE REST OF THE DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. AFTER MIDDAY HIGHS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NW
TO MID TO UPPER 20S SCNTRL...TEMPS WILL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
COLD WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR MUCH OF EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. NORMAL HIGHS FOR
FIRST PORTION OF FEBRUARY ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...AND THERE
WILL BE A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK WHERE HIGHS STAY BLO 10 ABOVE. TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FM NORTHERN CANADA OVER GREAT LAKES AND MOST OF THE
EASTERN CONUS AS RIDGING TEMPORARILY BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. LEAD
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DROPS OVER GREAT LAKES SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WITH H85/5KFT AGL TEMPS BLO -20C/-3F. ANOTHER STRONGER PUSH OF COLDER
AIR IS DUE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS H85 TEMPS DROP TO AT LEAST
-25C/-13F. COULD BE A WIDESPREAD SNOW JUST AHEAD OF THAT REINFORCING
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE RIDGING OVER THE
WEST COAST IS NOT THAT SHARP...WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS MODERATING BACK TOWARD
NORMAL...POSSIBLY ABOVE...BY NEXT WEEKEND.
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSIONS 4 TO POSSIBLY 6 KFT WITH DELTA T/S
INCREASING FM AROUND 18C SATURDAY EVENING TO 25C BY SUNDAY MORNING.
MAJORITY OF DGZ NOT WITHIN LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER...SO SNOWFLAKE SIZE
AND THUS SLR/AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD DOWN TO AROUND 20:1 OR EVEN LOWER.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS START OUT NNW-N ON SATURDAY EVENING AND TURN TO NNE
BY SUNDAY AS RIDGING EXPANDS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. SETUP FAVORS LES
WITH MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMS FOR FAR WEST CWA AND OVER THE NCNTRL CWA.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE POSSIBLE WEAK LAKE ENHANCED SETUP AS SWATH OF H7-
H5 MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
EXTENT OF DRYING BTWN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAKE CONVECTIVE
LAYER MAY BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME THOUGH AS LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE VCNTY OF NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN MAY MAKE UP
FOR OVERALL MARGINAL SETUP FOR LES...BUT EVEN SO...DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR
FAVORED AREAS. WINDS ARE NOT VERY STRONG...SO SNOW SHOWERS MAY TRY
TO STAY CONFINED TOWARD THE SHORE INSTEAD OF SETTING UP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR...WINDS SHOULD NOT BE TOO
STRONG...LIMITING THE OVERALL IMPACT. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FALL WELL BLO ZERO OVER THE EAST WITH DRAINAGE FLOW OFF ONTARIO.
OTHERWISE...NE FLOW AND WEALTH OF STRATUS OFF LK SUPERIOR BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESTRICT TEMPS FM FALLING BLO ZERO.
STRATUS SHOULD STAY IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY...EXCEPT OVER THE
FAR EAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND MAY
JUST STRUGGLE ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR EAST CWA. ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE FM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BRING A SWATH OF
SNOW TO AS CLOSE AS NORTHERN WI LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM
PHASES WITH ANOTHER MOVING OUT OF THE REMNANT OF CURRENT SOUTHWEST
CONUS LOW TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SNOW ON SUNDAY ALONG DEVELOPING SFC
LOW OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. LOOKS
LIKE UPR MICHIGAN WILL MISS THIS STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT LINGERING
WEAKENING LES FOR SNOW BELTS TO EAST OF MARQUETTE AND POSSIBLY OVER
THE NORTHWEST CWA. LES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT MAINLY OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS IN BLYR SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST ON EDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SINKING OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
CHILLY TEMPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WELL BLO ZERO...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST
INTERIOR AND ALSO EAST CWA WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF
ONTARIO. SINCE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND CALM...NO WIND CHILL ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED.
LES DRIFTS FARTHER EAST TO SNOW BELTS EAST OF MUNISING AND LIKELY
INCREASES ON THE KEWEENAW AS WINDS BECOME MORE CONVERGENT FM THE
WEST. SETUP THEN MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FOR NORTHERN KEWEENAW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS WSW FLOW RESULTS IN STRONG CONVERGENCE BAND TO FORM WHILE
SHORTWAVE WITH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE SLIDES ACROSS.
SOUNDINGS INDCIATE THAT INVERSIONS REACH MORE TOWARD 8KFT WITH
INVERSION TOP TEMPS NEARING -24C. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW WITH
RATES OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHERE SHARPEST
CONVERGENCE ALLIGNS. TOUGH TO TELL THAT AT THIS POINT WHERE THAT
OCCURS...BUT WORTH AN HWO MENTION AS THIS TYPE OF LES PATTERN CAN
RESULT IN A LOT OF SNOW IN JUST A FEW HOURS.
ON INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ADVANCING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AREA OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE LOW AND AREA OF DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
JET STREAK SLIDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD SPREAD AN AREA
OF LGT SNOW WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WENT WITH
LOW POPS AWAY FM LAKE EFFECT AREAS...ESPECIALLY AS THE ECMWF KEEPS
MOST WIDESRPEAD QPF SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONGER
COLD FRONT POISED TO SWEEP ACROSS. EXPECT NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT TO
RAMP UP WEDENSDAY AFTN AS NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR RETURN TO THE AREA.
ECMWF/GFS VARYING ON HOW COLD IT GETS AT H85. BLEND OF 12Z RUNS
SUGGEST H85 TEMPS END UP AROUND -27C/-17F WHICH WITH LAKE TEMPS IN
ICE FREE AREAS AROUND 2C/35F YIELDS PLENTY OF OVER-WATER
INSTABILITY. ALSO...COMPARED TO THE RECENT LAKE EFFECT EVENTS...THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSIONS MAY CLIMB TOWARD 8KFT. DUE TO
THE COLD AIR...SLR/S WILL BE LOWER...BUT WHATEVER LES OCCURS WILL BE
EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VSBY. SEEMS THAT SOME HAZARDS FOR THE SNOW AND
BLSN MAY BE NEEDED AND LOW VSBY AFFECT WOULD ONLY BE ENHANCED DUE TO
THE ICE COVER NEAR THE SHORELINE OF LK SUPERIOR. WILL MENTION THIS
IN THE HWO.
WILL BE AROUND WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AT LEAST WESTERN CWA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS TEMPS DROP TOWARD 10
BELOW AND WINDS ARE AT LEAST 5-10 MPH FM THE NW. ELSEWHERE...NW FLOW
OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL MODERATE TEMPS AND KEEP WIND CHILLS ABOVE 20
BELOW. LES DIMINISHES AND EVENTUALLY ENDS BY NEXT FRIDAY AS WINDS
BACK SW WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLD
FOR ALL ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS BLO ZERO...BUT WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT WIND CHILL ISSUES AT THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
WITH OFFSHORE WINDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT IWD/SAW INTO
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER....LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER AT CMX THIS LATE AFTERNOON UNTIL WINDS BACK TO THE SW AND
INCREASE. A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR VSBY WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR VSBY EVEN
AS THE MVFR CIGS PERSIST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARING FROM THE W
THAT WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH OVER NW MN AT 00Z/SAT WILL AND CROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR BY
12Z. LOOK FOR -SN TO MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND PICK UP
IN INTENSITY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. LES AND GUSTY WINDS
PRODUCING BLSN AND LOWER VSBY IS EXPECTED AT CMX BY MID MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
BRIEF LULL IN STRONGER WINDS OVER LK SUPERIOR ATTM AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS. STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING ON SATURDAY WILL BRING IN
ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG WINDS...POSSIBLY REACHING 35 KT GALES
SATURDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. LEFT THE GALE WATCH UP AS IT IS
ONLY A MARGINAL SETUP FOR GALES. MID SHIFT CAN MAKE THE FINAL CALL.
DID PUT UP HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING AS THAT IS MORE CERTAIN.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS. WINDS
INCREASE FM THE WSW ON MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND
COLD FRONT THAT SWEEP OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THAT FRONT...ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR LSZ264-266-267.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ264-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
408 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY INTO THE NE CONUS RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER SRN
MANITOBA. THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED WAA PATTERN SUPPORTED SOME LIGHT
SNOW FROM FAR NRN MN INTO NW ONTARIO WITH VSBY INTO THE 1-3SM RANGE.
AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. BACKING WINDS TO SW OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND W OVER
THE ERN LAKE HAVE PUSHED THE LES BANDS OFFSHORE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES NEAR GRAND MARAIS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN INTO THIS EVENING AS THE
AS THE SHRTWV APPROACHES. UPSTREAM TRENDS AND MODELS FCST 285K-290K
ISENTROPIC LIFT...SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD
THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN BTWN 03Z-09Z. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
AND DRY LOW LEVELS DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE PCPN...QPF OF 0.05 OR
LOWER WITH SLR VALUES NEAR 20/1 WOULD ONLY RESULT IN SNOW AMOUNTS OF
AN INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL CONV INCREASES ALONG THE SFC
FRONT/TROUGH AND 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -12C...THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO NW UPPER MI THAT MAY BRING
TOTALS INTO THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
SAT...THE AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONV WITH THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NRN CWA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -20C BY 00Z
SUN...A QUICK TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LVL
NORTHERLY FLOW AND FALLING INVERSIONS AT OR BELOW 4KFT WILL LIMIT
LES INTENSITY THE REST OF THE DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. AFTER MIDDAY HIGHS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NW
TO MID TO UPPER 20S SCNTRL...TEMPS WILL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
A COLD PATTERN IS SETTING IN FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST
FEATURING A W COAST RIDGE AND CNTL/ERN TROF. THE RESULTING NW FLOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF CANADIAN AIR.
WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPS BLO TO MUCH BLO NORMAL AT
TIMES...TEMPS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS
FOR PCPN...THIS IS TYPICALLY A DRY PATTERN FOR THE UPPER LAKES WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL HOWEVER
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST THE LES WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT THERE MAY BE THE OCCASIONAL BOOST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT.
BEGINNING SAT...STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVING SE THROUGH ONTARIO WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT NRLY BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT MORNING. THERE COULD BE THE TYPICAL QUICK BURST OF MDT TO
POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ONSHORE OVER
MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
-20 TO -25C BY 00Z SUN...SHARP TRANSITION TO A MORE
DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LVL NORTHERLY FLOW AND A FALLING
INVERSION TO 4KFT OR LOWER WILL LIMIT LES INTENSITY AFTER THE BURST
OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT
SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCH RANGE. AFTER EARLY HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE TEENS NW TO MID TO UPPER 20S SCNTRL...TEMPS WILL
FALL THRU THE DAY AS BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...UPPER MI WILL BE DOMINATED BY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WITH INITIAL NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING WNW BY SUN NIGHT.
INVERSION HGTS PLUNGING BLO 2KFT ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DGZ DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER 12HRS. THERE COULD BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS PRES
GRADIENT/WINDS SLACKEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...A MESOLOW COULD SPIN UP
OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE SHORE
BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...DEPENDING ON THE CIRCULATION
STRUCTURE. SAT NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA IF CLOUDS/LES SHIFT W FROM WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY DUE TO
DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF ONTARIO.
MON...LES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS BACK
DUE TO HIGH PRES SHIFTING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BY MON AFTN...LES MAY ONLY BE AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW.
TUE-THU...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...MODELS INDICATE A VERY COLD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH
850MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING OVER THE AREA WED INTO EARLY THU.
WITH DGZ DRIVEN BELOW LAKE SURFACE AND INVERSIONS AT OR BLO 5KFT
SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LES ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT WED
INTO THU. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIR
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT
REDUCING VISIBILITY. LOWEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WED/THU.
MODELS SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK (FRI-SAT) AS
AMPLIFIED WRN RDG/ERN TROF PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
WITH OFFSHORE WINDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT IWD/SAW INTO
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER....LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER AT CMX THIS LATE AFTERNOON UNTIL WINDS BACK TO THE SW AND
INCREASE. A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR VSBY WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR VSBY EVEN
AS THE MVFR CIGS PERSIST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARING FROM THE W
THAT WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH OVER NW MN AT 00Z/SAT WILL AND CROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR BY
12Z. LOOK FOR -SN TO MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND PICK UP
IN INTENSITY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. LES AND GUSTY WINDS
PRODUCING BLSN AND LOWER VSBY IS EXPECTED AT CMX BY MID MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
GALES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL COME TO
AN END OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 15Z TODAY AS LIGHTER
WINDS TAKE HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH E
MN AND W WI WILL SINK TO THE OH VALLEY TODAY...WHILE EXTENDING A
RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR A TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...AND EXIT INTO
SE ONTARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS W AND
CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NW GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. LOOK FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE HOISTED LATER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THIS HIGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY MORNING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...AND THEN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL
LIKELY RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR LSZ264-266-267.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ264-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
PCPN TYPE AND PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. PCPN SHOULD TURN
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND LATEST RAP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER REGION EARLY THIS
AFTN. THIS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THIS TROUGH THOUGH AND
MOVE UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SURFACE
ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER...WITH
LIGHT PCPN PROBABLY MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE 12Z.
HAVE LOWS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE
PCPN TYPE MAY BE A MIX LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
DID MAKE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO SNOW AMOUNTS...MAINLY FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ON SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT IF WE GET
ANY ACCUMULATIONS...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON BUT AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHTER. THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL APPEARED TOO COLD...AND WENT CLOSER TO A
BLEND OF SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE SREF. NORTH
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS THE
COLUMN COOLS...PCPN WILL CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW AND WILL START TO
ACCUMULATE. A SEPARATE SYSTEM WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING GOOD LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. IT APPEARS ANOTHER LOBE OF LIFT WILL DROP
DOWN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT SOME
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW GOING UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE COLD WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DECREASING WINDS.
LOWS SHOULD DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WE MAY SEE SOME BELOW
ZERO NUMBERS FROM HARTINGTON AND WAYNE TOWARD TEKAMAH AND HARLAN.
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY
AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. COULD NOT ARGUE WITH THAT TOO MUCH SO WENT
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR NOW AND WILL FINE TUNE THAT
LATER. MEASURABLE LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN IOWA MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
SOME MILDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BRIEFLY FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT FOR HIGHS. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SEEMS POSSIBLE BASED ON THE PATTERN...PLUS BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A BIT OF SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THEN
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD
THE END OF THIS CYCLE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH MVFR CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHEAST BEFORE 12Z.
PCPN SHOULD MOVE INTO KLNK FIRST AROUND 13-18Z....WITH KOMA
FOLLOWING AROUND 16-18Z. PCPN TYPE THROUGH 18Z SHOULD MAINLY BE
-RA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/TONIGHT...KERN
SHORT TERM/SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
309 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW PERSISTING DOWNWIND FROM THE FINGER LAKES...AND
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AREA-WIDE. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH ONLY A FEW FLURRIES FORESEEN
FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM COULD
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE GRIDS THIS PD.
AREA-WIDE WIND CHILL ADVSY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HRS...AS VERY STG 925-850 MB CAA THROUGH THIS EVE...SHOULD SEND
AIR TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV OR BLO ZERO TNT...WITH THE
PRES GRADIENT REMAINING RELATIVELY TIGHT THIS EVE...AND ONLY
SLOWLY RELAXING LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE APPARENT TEMPS IN THE
-10 TO -20 RANGE...WITH LOCALLY COLDER VALUES IN OUR FAR NRN AND
ERN ZNS.
AS FAR AS THE LES ADVSY GOES...NO CHGS ATTM. ALTHOUGH BLYR INSTAB
(TERRESTRIAL CAPE VALUES OF 15-30 J/KG) TEMPORARILY RESULTED IN A
MORE CELLULAR APPEARANCE TO THE SNOW SHWRS EARLIER THIS AFTN
LOW-LVL STABILIZATION AND INCRG SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN THE RE-
EMERGENCE OF WELL DEFINED BANDS BY 21Z OR SO. IN FACT...EVIDENCE
OF SUCH IS ALREADY SEEN ON KBGM RADAR IMAGERY ATTM. MOST HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THAT MULTI-BANDS/FINGER LKS BANDS WILL REMAIN
AT PLAY TIL AT LEAST 06-12Z SAT. OVERALL...INTENSITY SHOULD WANE
AFTER 06Z...AS MODEL SNDGS SHOW THE CAPPING INVERSION LWRG TO AOB
875-900 MB. WE`LL STICK WITH OUR 3-6" TOTALS FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH
WUDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALLY HIER AMTS...SPCLY IN SERN
TOMPKINS AND/OR NRN TIOGA.
OUTSIDE OF MULTI-BAND AREAS...EITHER WIDELY SCTD -SHSN/FLRYS...OR
JUST DRY WX...IS FORESEEN.
PREV DISC... 10 AM UPDATE... WE`VE ISSUED A LES ADVSY FOR
TOMPKINS...TIOGA...BROOME...AND SUSQ CNTYS...AS CONFIDENCE HAS
BECOME FAIRLY HIGH IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A WELL DVLPD FINGER LKS
BAND...THROUGH AT LEAST 00-03Z THIS EVE. OUR FIRST STAB AT SNOW
TOTALS IS 3-6"...BUT LOCALLY HIER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL.
NO OTHER SIG CHGS ATTM.
EARLIER DISC... 830 AM UPDATE... SN/+SN IS BEING OBSERVED ATTM
WITHIN A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND ACRS NE PA AND PTNS OF THE WRN
CATSKILLS. THIS FEATURE IS ON THE NWRN/DEFORMATION SIDE OF A S/WV
LIFTING THROUGH THE RGN THIS MRNG. POP/WX/SNOWFALL GRIDS WERE
UPDATED TO REFLECT SUCH DVLPMTS. WE`VE ADDED A CORRIDOR OF 2-3"
ADDTNL SNOWFALL WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND AREA THROUGH
15-16Z. A SHORT-TERM SPS WAS ALSO ISSUED.
OTHWS...THE FCST IS PRETTY WELL IN HAND. FAIRLY DEEP LYR OF INSTAB
NOTED ON THE 12Z KBUF SNDG...INDICATIVE OF THE AMS WE`LL HAVE
THROUGH EARLY AFTN...AHD OF THE NEXT INCOMING S/WV. LIKELY POPS
FOR SNOW SHWRS OVER MOST OF CNY...WITH MORE SCTD ACTIVITY ACRS
MUCH OF NE PA...STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH A FLUFFY 1-2"
ANTICIPATED IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SHSN. IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT
THE LATEST HRRR AND HI-RES ARW OUTPUT IN PARTICULAR SHOW A WELL
FORMED MULTI-BAND/FINGER LKS BAND FROM LTR THIS MRNG...THROUGH THE
AFTN...AND INTO THE EVE HRS...DOWN THE AXIS OF CAYUGA LAKE...AND THEN
SEWD FROM THERE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMPKINS/TIOGA CNTYS. SINCE THERE
ARE ALREADY SOME INDICATIONS OF BANDING IN THIS GENERAL AREA
ATTM...WE`LL MONITOR THAT CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.
GIVEN STG CAA THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...SHARPLY FALLING TEMPS STILL
LOOK LIKELY...AND OUR PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED TREND WAS KEPT IN TACT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM FRI UPDATE... OVERALL...THINGS LOOK FAIRLY QUIET SAT-SUN
MRNG. WINDS SHOULD RELAX SAT...SO THE WIND CHILL EXPIRATION TIME
OF 16Z STILL LOOKS GOOD ATTM. A WEAK SFC FRNT AND NRN STREAM S/WV
ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE FA SAT NGT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SUN...WITH ONLY SCTD LGT SNOW SHWRS AND FLRYS ANTICIPATED...AND
LTL IN THE WAY OF ACCUM.
RECENT GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS (GFS/EC/GEM) HAVE PERSISTED WITH THE
12Z FRI CYCLE...INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL WV...FARTHER N
SFC LOW TRACK...AND RESULTANT INCREASED SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR
CNY/NE PA. MUCH MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE FOLLOWING SXN. FOR
NOW...WE`VE BROUGHT THE LEADING EDGE OF STEADIER SNOW (CHC-LIKELY
POPS) INTO AT LEAST SWRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MID TO LATE AFTN ON SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY A MOISTURE LADEN STORM
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE
REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND POTENTIALLY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AS THIS EVENT IS STILL MORE THAN 48
HOURS OUT, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF
THE SYSTEM AND IT`S EXACT TRACK BUT AS DISCUSSED ABOVE FORECAST
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPDATE CYCLE.
THE TRACK OF THE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA SHOULD RESULT IN THE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS (POTENTIALLY 6+ INCHES) GENERALLY OCCURRING ACROSS NE PA
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF UPSTATE NEW YORK THEN EAST
INTO THE CATSKILLS WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. WORTH
NOTING, HOWEVER, IS THAT IF THE LOW TRACK WERE TO TREND EVEN
FARTHER NORTH THIS COULD INTRODUCE MIXED PRECIP INTO NE PA CUTTING
AMOUNTS DOWN THERE AND RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHER TOTALS
OVER NY. SO, AS MENTIONED, STILL UNCERTAINTY SO WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON WATCH AT THIS TIME. FINALLY, THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO RESULT IN THIS BEING A VERY COLD EVENT WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTH WHICH
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WINDS LATER MONDAY.
EXPECT SNOW TO WIND DOWN BY LATER MONDAY WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
POSSIBLE IN IT`S WAKE MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT VERY COLD TEMPS BY
LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN WITH WIDESPREAD
SUBZERO READINGS. TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD WITH
BRIEF MODERATION TO SEASONAL WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPS TO
FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NW FLOW ALSO WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT IFR VISBYS FOR KITH/KBGM/KSYR AND AT
TIMES KELM. EXPECT VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TO BE
REDUCED TO A 1/2 SM AT TIMES. KRME/KAVP WILL GENERALLY SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SHOULD MISS THE HEAVIEST OF THESE
SHOWERS.
THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH MOST SITES BECOMING VFR BY
MORNING. KITH/KBGM WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO IMPROVE DUE TO THE
LAKE EFFECT OFF THE FINGER LAKES. EXPECT IFR VISBYS TO LAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KITH WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
THERE BEYOND THIS TIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT AND MOST OF SUN...VFR.
SUN NGT / MON... RESTRICTIONS LIKELY (MVFR/IFR) IN SNOW.
TUE...VFR.
WED...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ039.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
055>057-062.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ025-
055-056.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...PCF/RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
157 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW PERSISTING DOWNWIND FROM THE FINGER LAKES...AND
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AREA-WIDE. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH ONLY A FEW FLURRIES FORESEEN
FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM COULD
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE GRIDS THIS PD.
AREA-WIDE WIND CHILL ADVSY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HRS...AS VERY STG 925-850 MB CAA THROUGH THIS EVE...SHOULD SEND
AIR TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV OR BLO ZERO TNT...WITH THE
PRES GRADIENT REMAINING RELATIVELY TIGHT THIS EVE...AND ONLY
SLOWLY RELAXING LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE APPARENT TEMPS IN THE
-10 TO -20 RANGE...WITH LOCALLY COLDER VALUES IN OUR FAR NRN AND
ERN ZNS.
AS FAR AS THE LES ADVSY GOES...NO CHGS ATTM. ALTHOUGH BLYR INSTAB
(TERRESTRIAL CAPE VALUES OF 15-30 J/KG) TEMPORARILY RESULTED IN A
MORE CELLULAR APPEARANCE TO THE SNOW SHWRS EARLIER THIS AFTN
...LOW-LVL STABILIZATION AND INCRG SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN THE RE-
EMERGENCE OF WELL DEFINED BANDS BY 21Z OR SO. IN FACT...EVIDENCE
OF SUCH IS ALREADY SEEN ON KBGM RADAR IMAGERY ATTM. MOST HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THAT MULTI-BANDS/FINGER LKS BANDS WILL REMAIN
AT PLAY TIL AT LEAST 06-12Z SAT. OVERALL...INTENSITY SHOULD WANE
AFTER 06Z...AS MODEL SNDGS SHOW THE CAPPING INVERSION LWRG TO AOB
875-900 MB. WE`LL STICK WITH OUR 3-6" TOTALS FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH
WUDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALLY HIER AMTS...SPCLY IN SERN
TOMPKINS AND/OR NRN TIOGA.
OUTSIDE OF MULTI-BAND AREAS...EITHER WIDELY SCTD -SHSN/FLRYS...OR
JUST DRY WX...IS FORESEEN.
PREV DISC... 10 AM UPDATE... WE`VE ISSUED A LES ADVSY FOR
TOMPKINS...TIOGA...BROOME...AND SUSQ CNTYS...AS CONFIDENCE HAS
BECOME FAIRLY HIGH IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A WELL DVLPD FINGER LKS
BAND...THROUGH AT LEAST 00-03Z THIS EVE. OUR FIRST STAB AT SNOW
TOTALS IS 3-6"...BUT LOCALLY HIER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL.
NO OTHER SIG CHGS ATTM.
EARLIER DISC... 830 AM UPDATE... SN/+SN IS BEING OBSERVED ATTM
WITHIN A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND ACRS NE PA AND PTNS OF THE WRN
CATSKILLS. THIS FEATURE IS ON THE NWRN/DEFORMATION SIDE OF A S/WV
LIFTING THROUGH THE RGN THIS MRNG. POP/WX/SNOWFALL GRIDS WERE
UPDATED TO REFLECT SUCH DVLPMTS. WE`VE ADDED A CORRIDOR OF 2-3"
ADDTNL SNOWFALL WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND AREA THROUGH
15-16Z. A SHORT-TERM SPS WAS ALSO ISSUED.
OTHWS...THE FCST IS PRETTY WELL IN HAND. FAIRLY DEEP LYR OF INSTAB
NOTED ON THE 12Z KBUF SNDG...INDICATIVE OF THE AMS WE`LL HAVE
THROUGH EARLY AFTN...AHD OF THE NEXT INCOMING S/WV. LIKELY POPS
FOR SNOW SHWRS OVER MOST OF CNY...WITH MORE SCTD ACTIVITY ACRS
MUCH OF NE PA...STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH A FLUFFY 1-2"
ANTICIPATED IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SHSN. IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT
THE LATEST HRRR AND HI-RES ARW OUTPUT IN PARTICULAR SHOW A WELL
FORMED MULTI-BAND/FINGER LKS BAND FROM LTR THIS MRNG...THROUGH THE
AFTN...AND INTO THE EVE HRS...DOWN THE AXIS OF CAYUGA LAKE...AND THEN
SEWD FROM THERE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMPKINS/TIOGA CNTYS. SINCE THERE
ARE ALREADY SOME INDICATIONS OF BANDING IN THIS GENERAL AREA
ATTM...WE`LL MONITOR THAT CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.
GIVEN STG CAA THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...SHARPLY FALLING TEMPS STILL
LOOK LIKELY...AND OUR PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED TREND WAS KEPT IN TACT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM FRI UPDATE... OVERALL...THINGS LOOK FAIRLY QUIET SAT-SUN
MRNG. WINDS SHOULD RELAX SAT...SO THE WIND CHILL EXPIRATION TIME
OF 16Z STILL LOOKS GOOD ATTM. A WEAK SFC FRNT AND NRN STREAM S/WV
ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE FA SAT NGT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SUN...WITH ONLY SCTD LGT SNOW SHWRS AND FLRYS ANTICIPATED...AND
LTL IN THE WAY OF ACCUM.
RECENT GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS (GFS/EC/GEM) HAVE PERSISTED WITH THE
12Z FRI CYCLE...INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL WV...FARTHER N
SFC LOW TRACK...AND RESULTANT INCREASED SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR
CNY/NE PA. MUCH MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE FOLLOWING SXN. FOR
NOW...WE`VE BROUGHT THE LEADING EDGE OF STEADIER SNOW (CHC-LIKELY
POPS) INTO AT LEAST SWRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MID TO LATE AFTN ON SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE STILL
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z CYCLE AND SHOW THE SFC LOW MONDAY
MORNING MOVING THROUGH NRN VA. THE CANADIAN CONTINUES TO BE
FARTHER SOUTH AS IT TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA. BASED
ON FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TWO MODEL RUNS UPPED THE
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SE FA.
330 PM UPDATE... MODEL DISAGREEMENT/INCONSISTENCY CONTS WITH THE
LATEST CYCLES REGARDING THE SUN NGT-MON STORM SYSTEM. THE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EC/GFS HAVE TRENDED NWD SOMEWHAT AGN...NOW TRACKING
THE SFC LOW THROUGH VA AND SERN MD...AND BRINGING LGT SNOW AT
LEAST TO THE PA/NY BORDER...IF NOT INTO NY`S SRN TIER.
MEANWHILE...THE CAN GEM HAS NOW GONE MUCH FARTHER S...TAKING THE
SFC WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WITH LTL OR NO SNOWFALL FOR OUR FA.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...THE EXPECTATION OF FURTHER MODEL
WAFFLING...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THE SUPPORTING S/WV ENERGY IS
NOW JUST APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...WE`LL
SIMPLY MAKE VERY SMALL INCREMENTAL CHGS ATTM...JUST EASING POPS
UPWARD AGN TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST EC/GFS TRENDS. THIS RESULTS
IN LIKELY POPS FOR OUR FAR SRN ZNS SUN NGT (BACK DOWN TO CHC BY
MON)...AND CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PD FOR OUR NY SRN TIER CNTYS.
ALTHOUGH...STRICTLY SPEAKING...WE`RE CURRENTLY INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER PTNS OF NE PA...THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STAY
TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS SITN.
TUE INTO WED LOOK QUIETER...BUT VERY COLD...WITH ONLY SOME FLRYS
FORESEEN AT WORST.
BY WED NGT AND THU...OUR NEXT REINFORCING COLD FRNT AND NRN STREAM
S/WV APPROACH...BRINGING A CHC OF SNOW SHWRS. THE EC IS ALSO
SHOWING THE PSBLTY THAT SOME SRN STREAM MOISTURE GETS INCORPORATED
INTO THE SYSTEM. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT ALL OF THESE FINE
DETAILS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT IFR VISBYS FOR KITH/KBGM/KSYR AND AT
TIMES KELM. EXPECT VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TO BE
REDUCED TO A 1/2 SM AT TIMES. KRME/KAVP WILL GENERALLY SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SHOULD MISS THE HEAVIEST OF THESE
SHOWERS.
THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH MOST SITES BECOMING VFR BY
MORNING. KITH/KBGM WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO IMPROVE DUE TO THE
LAKE EFFECT OFF THE FINGER LAKES. EXPECT IFR VISBYS TO LAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KITH WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
THERE BEYOND THIS TIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT AND MOST OF SUN...VFR.
SUN NGT MON...PSBL RESTRICTIONS (MVFR/IFR) IN SNOW.
TUE...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ039.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
055>057-062.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ025-
055-056.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...PCF/RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1259 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. LIGHT
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TODAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS SENDING WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW
ZERO TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... WE`VE ISSUED A LES ADVSY FOR
TOMPKINS...TIOGA...BROOME...AND SUSQ CNTYS...AS CONFIDENCE HAS
BECOME FAIRLY HIGH IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A WELL DVLPD FINGER LKS
BAND...THROUGH AT LEAST 00-03Z THIS EVE. OUR FIRST STAB AT SNOW
TOTALS IS 3-6"...BUT LOCALLY HIER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL.
NO OTHER SIG CHGS ATTM.
830 AM UPDATE... SN/+SN IS BEING OBSERVED ATTM WITHIN A SW-NE
ORIENTED BAND ACRS NE PA AND PTNS OF THE WRN CATSKILLS. THIS
FEATURE IS ON THE NWRN/DEFORMATION SIDE OF A S/WV LIFTING THROUGH
THE RGN THIS MRNG. POP/WX/SNOWFALL GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT
SUCH DVLPMTS. WE`VE ADDED A CORRIDOR OF 2-3" ADDTNL SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND AREA THROUGH 15-16Z. A SHORT-TERM
SPS WAS ALSO ISSUED.
OTHWS...THE FCST IS PRETTY WELL IN HAND. FAIRLY DEEP LYR OF INSTAB
NOTED ON THE 12Z KBUF SNDG...INDICATIVE OF THE AMS WE`LL HAVE
THROUGH EARLY AFTN...AHD OF THE NEXT INCOMING S/WV. LIKELY POPS
FOR SNOW SHWRS OVER MOST OF CNY...WITH MORE SCTD ACTIVITY ACRS
MUCH OF NE PA...STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH A FLUFFY 1-2"
ANTICIPATED IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SHSN. IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT
THE LATEST HRRR AND HI-RES ARW OUTPUT IN PARTICULAR SHOW A WELL
FORMED MULTI-BAND/FINGER LKS BAND FROM LTR THIS MRNG...THROUGH THE
AFTN...AND INTO THE EVE HRS...DOWN THE AXIS OF CAYUGA LAKE...AND THEN
SEWD FROM THERE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMPKINS/TIOGA CNTYS. SINCE THERE
ARE ALREADY SOME INDICATIONS OF BANDING IN THIS GENERAL AREA
ATTM...WE`LL MONITOR THAT CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.
GIVEN STG CAA THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...SHARPLY FALLING TEMPS STILL
LOOK LIKELY...AND OUR PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED TREND WAS KEPT IN TACT.
PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
WEST THEN NW. MOST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH FRONTS OVER
WITH...HAVING MOVED INTO ERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE
DURATION AND THE OBS FROM SYR AND BGM PROBABLY GOT LESS THAN 4
INCHES. LAKE EFFECT WILL START WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT. THIS
BACKED UP ALOFT WITH A SHORT WAVE AND TROF. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM 280 TO 310. ALSO WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. LAKE EFFECT STARTS WITH MULTIBANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP IN THE USUAL AREAS OF THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES
AND NORTHERN SUSQUEHANNA REGION. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY 1 TO
3 INCHES. THE WIND WILL CAUSE DRIFTING. SNOW AMOUNTS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DROPPED WWA.
TEMPERATURES TO FALL SLOWLY ALL DAY. WIND CHILLS APPROACH ZERO
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY ISSUED FOR ENTIRE CWA. WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL
BELOW ZERO WITH TEMPERATURE FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. WINDS ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST. WINDS STAY ABOVE 10 MPH.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH AS DRY AIR COMES IN ALOFT AND THE
DENDRITE ZONE FALLS TO THE SFC. WEAK MULTIBANDS WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY IN THE FINGER LAKES WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. THE LAKE EFFECT DIES SATURDAY WHEN THE LL
WINDS SHIFT.
SAT NGT A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH LIGHT SNOW FOR CENT NY.
FORCING AND MOISTURE LACKING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH AGAIN WITH THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY STORM.
NOW NE PA COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN NY. SNOW
STARTS SUN AFTN AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THE STORM TRACK IS NOW
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THEN SLOWING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AS IT INTENSIFIES. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY...BUT UPPED POPS,
QPF, AND SNOWFALL. CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE STILL
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z CYCLE AND SHOW THE SFC LOW MONDAY
MORNING MOVING THROUGH NRN VA. THE CANADIAN CONTINUES TO BE
FARTHER SOUTH AS IT TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA. BASED
ON FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TWO MODEL RUNS UPPED THE
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SE FA.
330 PM UPDATE... MODEL DISAGREEMENT/INCONSISTENCY CONTS WITH THE
LATEST CYCLES REGARDING THE SUN NGT-MON STORM SYSTEM. THE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EC/GFS HAVE TRENDED NWD SOMEWHAT AGN...NOW TRACKING
THE SFC LOW THROUGH VA AND SERN MD...AND BRINGING LGT SNOW AT
LEAST TO THE PA/NY BORDER...IF NOT INTO NY`S SRN TIER.
MEANWHILE...THE CAN GEM HAS NOW GONE MUCH FARTHER S...TAKING THE
SFC WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WITH LTL OR NO SNOWFALL FOR OUR FA.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...THE EXPECTATION OF FURTHER MODEL
WAFFLING...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THE SUPPORTING S/WV ENERGY IS
NOW JUST APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...WE`LL
SIMPLY MAKE VERY SMALL INCREMENTAL CHGS ATTM...JUST EASING POPS
UPWARD AGN TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST EC/GFS TRENDS. THIS RESULTS
IN LIKELY POPS FOR OUR FAR SRN ZNS SUN NGT (BACK DOWN TO CHC BY
MON)...AND CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PD FOR OUR NY SRN TIER CNTYS.
ALTHOUGH...STRICTLY SPEAKING...WE`RE CURRENTLY INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER PTNS OF NE PA...THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STAY
TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS SITN.
TUE INTO WED LOOK QUIETER...BUT VERY COLD...WITH ONLY SOME FLRYS
FORESEEN AT WORST.
BY WED NGT AND THU...OUR NEXT REINFORCING COLD FRNT AND NRN STREAM
S/WV APPROACH...BRINGING A CHC OF SNOW SHWRS. THE EC IS ALSO
SHOWING THE PSBLTY THAT SOME SRN STREAM MOISTURE GETS INCORPORATED
INTO THE SYSTEM. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT ALL OF THESE FINE
DETAILS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT IFR VISBYS FOR KITH/KBGM/KSYR AND AT
TIMES KELM. EXPECT VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TO BE
REDUCED TO A 1/2 SM AT TIMES. KRME/KAVP WILL GENERALLY SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SHOULD MISS THE HEAVIST OF THESE
SHOWERS.
THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITINOS LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH MOST SITES BECOMING VFR BY
MORNING. KITH/KBGM WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO IMPROVE DUE TO THE
LAKE EFFECT OFF THE FINGER LAKES. EXPECT IFR VISBYS TO LAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KITH WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
THERE BEYOND THIS TIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT AND MOST OF SUN...VFR.
SUN NGT MON...PSBL RESTRICTIONS (MVFR/IFR) IN SNOW.
TUE...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ039.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
055>057-062.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ025-
055-056.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...PCF/RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
314 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COLD
FRONT DEPARTING TO THE EAST. STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION IS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE 12Z KGSO RAOB
SHOWING AN ALREADY DEEP MIXED LAYER UP TO 5000 FT AND A GUST TO 38KT
AT KGSO. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE STEADILY INCREASING AND GUSTS ARE
STARTING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30KT AREAWIDE. IT APPEARS
THE GUSTS WILL PEAK LATE THIS MORNING AND VERY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
MUCH AS 30-35KT IN SOME AREAS...BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...REGIONAL VIS SHOWS A FEW STREAMS OF
MOISTURE (JUST ABOVE 850MB PER KGSO/KRNK RAOBS) SPILLING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA. THE STRONG INVERSION JUST ABOVE AND STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THIS MOISTURE TRAPPED
AND THE STRATOCU FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO WE MAINLY EXPECT SKIES VARYING
FROM PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTHWEST TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST.
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 850MB WHILE ACCOUNTING FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE
WARMING YIELDS HIGHS IN THE 43-50 RANGE...ONLY ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES OFF
CURRENT READINGS. -BLS
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM FRIDAY...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT STIR TO THE WIND THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AS 925MB WINDS REMAIN TO 35KT. SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DRY...AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST LOWS FROM
THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BE THE FORECAST
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT...19 TO 20 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO NEAR 25
TOWARD KFAY...CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE OF THE MET AND MAV MOS. ON
SATURDAY...925MB WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15KT BY 18Z...AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE
TEENS KNOTS WITH INITIAL MIXING BEFORE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A FLAT RIDGE AXIS ALOFT GETS CLOSE TO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AS SOME MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES INTO AND
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS...FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE SUCH THAT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY OCCUR FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT
SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER...MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE. -DJF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW... AND INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL BRING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY... AROUND 50. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO
THE MIDWEST... LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION DURING THIS TIME... LEADING
TO A LIKELY NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND... WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AS ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA MOVES EASTWARD TO THE GULF COAST.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY... POTENTIALLY MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE THURS/FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
COAST WITH PRECIP MOVING IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY... 12Z ECMWF TAKES
THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE LOCAL IMPACT... AND GFS ENSEMBLE HAS
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST... SO
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. TIMING WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT
ON PTYPE... WITH ANY OVERNIGHT PRECIP POTENTIALLY BRINGING PTYPE
ISSUES. AT THIS POINT... WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
TIMING/DEVELOPMENT CAN BE BETTER ASCERTAINED. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS (CROSSWINDS FOR MANY RUNWAYS) OF
ANYWHERE FROM 25KT TO 35KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THESE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED STRATOCU WILL BE MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED FROM KRDU NORTH AND EAST BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FT THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SATURDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT TODAY...OR TO AROUND 35 MPH...ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL...WITH THE
LOWEST GUIDANCE OF THE RAP SUGGESTING SOME DEW POINTS IN SINGLE
FIGURES LATE IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE GFS IS
HIGHER...AND THE NAM IS MORE OF A COMPROMISE...WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE. BY 00Z SATURDAY...THE GRIDDED FORECAST WILL
SHOW A DEW POINT NEAR 10F IN THE TRIAD...BUT EVEN THERE THE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS IN THE UPPER 20S PERCENT. BASED THOSE DEW
POINTS...RECENT RAIN...AND EARLIER FORECAST SERVICE COORDINATION...
WILL FOR NOW HIGHLIGHT THE ADVERSE CONDITIONS OF THE WIND GUSTS IN
THE DISCUSSION OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF/SEC
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...BLS
FIRE WEATHER...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
100 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COLD
FRONT DEPARTING TO THE EAST. STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION IS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE 12Z KGSO RAOB
SHOWING AN ALREADY DEEP MIXED LAYER UP TO 5000 FT AND A GUST TO 38KT
AT KGSO. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE STEADILY INCREASING AND GUSTS ARE
STARTING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30KT AREAWIDE. IT APPEARS
THE GUSTS WILL PEAK LATE THIS MORNING AND VERY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
MUCH AS 30-35KT IN SOME AREAS...BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...REGIONAL VIS SHOWS A FEW STREAMS OF
MOISTURE (JUST ABOVE 850MB PER KGSO/KRNK RAOBS) SPILLING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA. THE STRONG INVERSION JUST ABOVE AND STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THIS MOISTURE TRAPPED
AND THE STRATOCU FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO WE MAINLY EXPECT SKIES VARYING
FROM PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTHWEST TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST.
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 850MB WHILE ACCOUNTING FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE
WARMING YIELDS HIGHS IN THE 43-50 RANGE...ONLY ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES OFF
CURRENT READINGS. -BLS
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT STIR TO THE WIND THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AS 925MB WINDS REMAIN TO 35KT. SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DRY...AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST LOWS FROM
THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BE THE FORECAST
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT...19 TO 20 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO NEAR 25
TOWARD KFAY...CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE OF THE MET AND MAV MOS. ON
SATURDAY...925MB WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15KT BY 18Z...AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE
TEENS KNOTS WITH INITIAL MIXING BEFORE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A FLAT RIDGE AXIS ALOFT GETS CLOSE TO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AS SOME MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES INTO AND
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS...FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE SUCH THAT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY OCCUR FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT
SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER...MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE. -DJF
MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL GET KICKED EASTWARD...IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ON SUNDAY.
ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
MORNING.
NWP MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DEFINITE NORTHWARD SHIFT OBSERVED IN THE LATEST
00Z/30 MODEL ITERATION. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER/DELAYED
ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT IMPORTANTLY DISPLACES THE HEAVIER QPF NORTH OF THE
AREA.
AS SUCH...SUNDAY WILL END UP MOSTLY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY NIGHT...CUTTING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST MORNING MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT RACES
EASTWARD. ESTIMATED QPF AMOUNTS NOW LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50"
RANGE. WITH ONLY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT BEST EXPECTED ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW NOW DISPLACED NORTH OF
THE AREA...WILL KEEP OUT THE MENTION OF ANY THUNDER ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES.
EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES WARMING OVERNIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WAA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER
40S SOUTHEAST. -CBL
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WILL BE STRONG POST-FRONTAL DRY
COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BY THE
AFTERNOON AS CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IF PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES VERIFY AND WE DECOUPLE AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD... EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S. UNDER FULL COMPLIMENTS OF SUN...TEMPS TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM THROUGH THE 30S. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW/TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD FROM
MEXICO AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN A COMPLETE ROLE REVERSAL... THE GFS IS
NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC WITH BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EC NEARLY 24 HOURS
SLOWER...DELAYING UNTIL THURSDAY. GIVEN LATER TIMING OF ONSET OF
PRECIP...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CURRENTLY SUPPORT ALL RAIN. HOWEVER
IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...ANY PRECIP
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE OF THE
FROZEN VARIETY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP POPS AT SMALL CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS (CROSSWINDS FOR MANY RUNWAYS) OF
ANYWHERE FROM 25KT TO 35KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THESE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED STRATOCU WILL BE MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED FROM KRDU NORTH AND EAST BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FT THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SATURDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT TODAY...OR TO AROUND 35 MPH...ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL...WITH THE
LOWEST GUIDANCE OF THE RAP SUGGESTING SOME DEW POINTS IN SINGLE
FIGURES LATE IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE GFS IS
HIGHER...AND THE NAM IS MORE OF A COMPROMISE...WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE. BY 00Z SATURDAY...THE GRIDDED FORECAST WILL
SHOW A DEW POINT NEAR 10F IN THE TRIAD...BUT EVEN THERE THE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS IN THE UPPER 20S PERCENT. BASED THOSE DEW
POINTS...RECENT RAIN...AND EARLIER FORECAST SERVICE COORDINATION...
WILL FOR NOW HIGHLIGHT THE ADVERSE CONDITIONS OF THE WIND GUSTS IN
THE DISCUSSION OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLS
FIRE WEATHER...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1156 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
COOL AIR STRATUS LEADING EDGE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE SOURIS RIVER
VALLEY OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE A BIT
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS SHOWING
UP AT ESTEVAN. ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
BURKE..WARD AND RENVILLE COUNTIES AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE
AREA. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS WHERE CLOUDS ARE FORMING TO MID 20S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN MODERATE
WARM ADVECTION. MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S WHICH IS QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. UPDATE TO CLOUDS
THE ONLY CHANGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN
AREA OF MVFR-IFR CLOUDS FROM BOTTINEAU TO HARVEY AND WISHEK WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MADE SOME MINOR SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND BUMPED UP SOUTHERLY
WINDS JUST A LITTLE THIS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND PUSH NORTH. THE HRRR IS
DOING A REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING THE CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS IN
THE 925MB MOISTURE FIELD. THE HRRR HAS THE AREA OF STRATUS
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 8 AM.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY ABOUT 11 AM. WINDS THEN SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FAVORED FOR
A NICE QUICK WARM UP BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND A WARM FRONT
NEARBY THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOW
50S. THE NORTH SHOULD REMAIN COOLER AS THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
EARLIER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE HOLD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN PERIOD
AND USED A MODEL BLEND WITH WPC QPF FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...00 UTC FRIDAY MODELS HAVE FLIPPED A BIT
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WHILE THE GEM HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF.
HOWEVER A BLEND STILL YIELDS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE...CLOSE TO WPC
FORECAST AND SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A 120KT UPPER LEVEL JET DROPPING
INTO MONTANA FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THIS SAME AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT TAPERING QUICKLY TO LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION FROM AROUND SHERWOOD TO RUGBY AND CARRINGTON.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. THERE ARE DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW...BUT WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS. THIS SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES WHICH INDUCES SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MONDAY REGION TUESDAY. AGAIN...WIDESPREAD
SNOWS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY SUB ADVISORY
CATEGORY SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER WOULD
RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THIS FAR OUT THINGS CAN
CERTAINLY CHANGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY TRENDED FARTHER NORTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS SUPPRESSED PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.
BEYOND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...THE GFS/GEM SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SNOWS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS A QUASI ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION LONG ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GIVING US
ONE LAST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WE MIGHT BREAK THE COLD AND ACTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS.
WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS WITH EACH SYSTEM BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BEGIN TO ADD UP. WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST SYSTEM AND INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOWS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 06Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
436 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND SUBZERO WIND
CHILLS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND SOME MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER SHOT
OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR SHOULD FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN ZONES AND ARCTIC AIR IS
BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE RAP SHOWS THE CORE OF LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ENTERING WESTERN PA SO TEMPS WHICH ARE STILL
RELATIVELY MILD OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN 1/2 OR SO OF MY FCST
AREA...WILL LEVEL OFF AND EVEN BEGIN FALLING SOON.
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE BLUSTERY AND TURNING COLDER. MOST
OF THE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SEEING
JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER OR PASSING FLURRY.
WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO OVER WESTERN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WESTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS AND MY FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND
LINGERING FLURRIES THE LONGEST...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS COMING DOWN SO THE CHANCES FOR ACTUAL
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE DWINDLING QUICKLY. WINDS REMAINING IN THE
10-15 MPH RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
10-20 BELOW ZERO RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL START BRIGHT IN MOST AREAS AS THE HIGH CRESTS JUST
TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INVADE FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD DO LITTLE TO MAR AN OTHERWISE FAIR
ALBEIT COLD MID WINTER`S DAY.
HIGHS FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S NORTH TO SOUTH WILL BE ABOUT
15 DEG BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER/SNOW EVENT POSSIBLE SUNDAY-MONDAY
*BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD HIGH IMPACT WINTER WX EVENT APPEARS TO
BE SHAPING UP ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL CENTRAL PA COUNTIES
AND IS VALID FROM 12PM SUNDAY THROUGH 12 PM MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN
THE EVENT OCCURRING IS AVERAGE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS SUCH AS LOCATION AND SNOW ACCUM NUMBERS GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...AND POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PCPN/WARMER TEMPS IN THE SRN 1/3 OF THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE NOW ENTERING CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATER SAT AND INTO
SUN. THIS ENERGY COUPLED WITH A MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ON ITS HEELS
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE
IN THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MO AND MID MS VALLEY REGION BY
EARLY SUN BEFORE THEN AIMING EAST TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES SUN NIGHT AND MON. AS THIS STORM DEVELOPS...MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BUILD NOT ONLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A LARGE ARCTIC
ANTICYCLONE HEADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT COLDER
AIR WILL ALSO BLEED EASTWARD AS PRESSURES RISE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRONOUNCED
UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
HELP GENERATE A INCREASINGLY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE UPON WHICH THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG.
THE PREVAILING SHIFT IN THE 12Z MODELS WAS TO CONTINUE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE WPC
FORECAST WHICH WAS WEIGHTED HEAVILY IN THE FINAL GRIDDED SNOW/ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TEMPERED BY THE RUN-
TO- RUN INCONSISTENCIES THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN ALONG THE WITH
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE MODELS MAY REVERSE TRENDS IN
SUBSEQUENT RUNS. WITH SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES COMING UP ANTICIPATE
SOME CHANGES REGARDING NUMBERS AND LOCATIONS OF SNOWFALL TOTALS.
A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO SURGE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
EARLY WEEK STORM WITH POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS COULD ADD TO STORM-RELATED IMPACTS. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BRING COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A COASTAL TYPE SYSTEM SOMETIME NEXT WED-FRI BUT
IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREDOMINANTLY IFR AT BFD AND JST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH. THROUGH THE CENTRAL AREAS THE
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE DAY CONTINUES BEFORE
BECOMING VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION IN A
PASSING SNOW SHOWER.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT TO BETWEEN 15-20KT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR.
SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR DEVELOPING ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM
MOVING TOWARD THE REGION.
MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY...IMPROVING AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.
TUE-WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-
045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-033-037-041-042-
045-046-049-051>053-058.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
206 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A
NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR MORE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN ZONES AND ARCTIC AIR IS
BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE RAP SHOWS THE CORE OF LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ENTERING WESTERN PA SO TEMPS WHICH ARE STILL
RELATIVELY MILD OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN 1/2 OR SO OF MY FCST
AREA...WILL LEVEL OFF AND EVEN BEGIN FALLING SOON.
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE BLUSTERY AND TURNING COLDER. MOST
OF THE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SEEING
JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER OR PASSING FLURRY.
WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO OVER WESTERN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WESTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS AND MY FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND
LINGERING FLURRIES THE LONGEST...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS COMING DOWN SO THE CHANCES FOR ACTUAL
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE DWINDLING QUICKLY. WINDS REMAINING IN THE
10-15 MPH RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
10-20 BELOW ZERO RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL START BRIGHT IN MOST AREAS AS THE HIGH CRESTS JUST
TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INVADE FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD DO LITTLE TO MAR AN OTHERWISE FAIR
ALBEIT COLD MID WINTER`S DAY.
HIGHS FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S NORTH TO SOUTH WILL BE ABOUT
15 DEG BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE LOW CHC
IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST.
CONSENSUS BUILDING FOR A MODERATE SNOWSTORM TO AFFECT MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TOUCHED UP QPF
AND SNOWFALL GRIDS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME...INDICATING AT LEAST
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL. CONSENSUS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE IS FOR
CENTRAL PA TO BE IN THE SWEET SPOT...AND IT APPEARS THAT WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS AN INCREASING THREAT GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE
TRENDS. STILL TOO EARLY FOR HEADLINE ISSUANCES FOR FOR A 5TH
PERIOD AND BEYOND EVENT.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.
MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED.
HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREDOMINANTLY IFR AT BFD AND JST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH. THROUGH THE CENTRAL AREAS THE
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE DAY CONTINUES BEFORE
BECOMING VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION IN A
PASSING SNOW SHOWER.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT TO BETWEEN 15-20KT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR.
SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR DEVELOPING ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM
MOVING TOWARD THE REGION.
MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY...IMPROVING AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.
TUE-WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-033-037-041-042-
045-046-049-051>053-058.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1133 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEW ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF
THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND A STORM SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN ZONES AND ARCTIC AIR IS
BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE RAP SHOWS THE CORE OF LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ENTERING WESTERN PA SO TEMPS WHICH ARE STILL
RELATIVELY MILD OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN 1/2 OR SO OF MY FCST
AREA...WILL LEVEL OFF AND EVEN BEGIN FALLING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE BLUSTERY AND COLDER DAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SEEING JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER OR PASSING FLURRY.
WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO OVER WESTERN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
COLLABORATED A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER SUSQ
(ADAMS...LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES) FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SAT MORNING...MAINLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION WIND GUST POTENTIAL. OF
MORE SIGNIFICANCE ARE WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO THE WEST AND NORTH.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING...SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE
COLD SIDE. WINDS WILL HAVE DECREASED BY EARLY TO MID MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE LOW CHC
IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST.
CONSENSUS BUILDING FOR A MODERATE SNOWSTORM TO AFFECT MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TOUCHED UP QPF
AND SNOWFALL GRIDS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME...INDICATING AT LEAST
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL. CONSENSUS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE IS FOR
CENTRAL PA TO BE IN THE SWEET SPOT...AND IT APPEARS THAT WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS AN INCREASING THREAT GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE
TRENDS. STILL TOO EARLY FOR HEADLINE ISSUANCES FOR FOR A 5TH
PERIOD AND BEYOND EVENT.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.
MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED.
HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PREDOMINANTLY IFR AT BFD AND JST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS POST FRONTAL SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH. THROUGH THE CENTRAL AREAS THE
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE DAY CONTINUES BEFORE
BECOMING VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION IN A
PASSING SNOW SHOWER.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING
AFTER DARK.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR.
SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR DEVELOPING ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM
MOVING TOWARD THE REGION.
MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY...IMPROVING AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.
TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-033-037-041-042-
045-046-049-051>053-058.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
454 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO PART OF THE EVENING. LATEST RAP AND NAM
GUIDANCE INDICATES WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TO JUSTIFY A SCA. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AS
CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR BELOW PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MINS.
NO OTHER CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS ON AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. PWATS NOW BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.2 INCHES OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS STILL CONFINED TO THE LOWEST
LAYERS AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT TO
MOISTEN. THIS IS THE REASON CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ANTICIPATED
TODAY...JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN MEXICO OVERCAST SKIES ARE NOTED
ON VIS SATELLITE...BUT AS THEY HAVE TRIED TO PUSH EASTWARD...MUCH
OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED. STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
TOMORROW. SOME MODELS DO INDICATE CLEARING FOR EASTERN COUNTIES
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT LEANING MORE TOWARD THE CLOUDY SOLUTIONS.
RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD...HAVE SLOWED POP
INCREASES A BIT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
MAINLY IN WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSES...AND NOSE OF UPPER JET INCHES IN. THIS PERIOD IS
WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE NOTED...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT MAINLY MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
CLOUD COVER KEEPING MIN TEMPS INTO THE 50S BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. THINK HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF THAT
AN UPPER SYSTEM WL MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD AND CONTRIBUTE TO A COLD FRONT ACRS THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL PWAT
VALUES (GFS DETERMINISTIC)...AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS (GFS
DETERMINISTIC) TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MSA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
AFTER FROPA. ANTICIPATE THAT PCPN WL CONTINUE AFTER FROPA THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY OWING TO UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE GFS/ECMWF PROG ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM MOVG ACRS THE NRN MEXICO AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT MONDAY NGT/TUESDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SOLNS
SUGGEST PCPN WL END TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. WL COMPROMISE WITH
PCPN REMAINING OVER THE EXTREME ERN CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER...AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
PROG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN GULF MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW DRG
THAT TIME. NO PCPN EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 56 68 59 72 47 / 10 30 40 40 30
VICTORIA 49 66 57 68 42 / 10 40 50 50 20
LAREDO 58 71 58 73 48 / 30 40 50 30 30
ALICE 56 70 58 73 47 / 10 40 50 40 30
ROCKPORT 56 64 60 64 47 / 10 30 40 40 30
COTULLA 52 68 56 70 44 / 30 60 40 30 20
KINGSVILLE 57 70 59 74 48 / 10 30 40 40 30
NAVY CORPUS 56 65 60 65 49 / 10 30 40 40 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT ARANSAS.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HART/79