Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/26/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
127 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A WINTER
STORM "MAY" BE BACK ON THE TABLE FOR SOME OF THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WHETHER OR NOT WE
HAVE A WINTER STORM...IT WILL BE VERY COLD MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...
FOR NOW GOING TO KEEP WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE EVEN THOUGH
MUCH OF CT...RI AND E MA ARE IN A LULL. WILL BE READY TO START
DROPPING WINTER HEADLINES ONCE THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENIC ZONE OVER
EASTERN NY STATE AT 18Z MOVES ACROSS. DEFORMATION ZONE AND LOW/MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENIC FORCING IS KEEPING A BAND OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHERN MIDDLESEX AND NW ESSEX
COUNTIES. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE WARNING AREA SHOULD END UP WITH 5
TO 8 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL...ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HILLS OF NW MIDDLESEX COUNTY.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON BANDING AND 2 METER
TEMPERATURES.
1045 AM UPDATE...
RAIN/SNOW LINE PARTLY A FUNCTION OF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND
HENCE SEEING SOME BACK AND FORTH PTYPE ACROSS SE MA AND RI. WE ARE
MAINTAINING THE SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST AS STILL
LOOKING GOOD OVERALL EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO FAR N MIDDLESEX COUNTY.
RADAR INDICATES PRECIPITATION LIGHTENING ACROSS CT AT 1045 AM AND
ANTICIPATE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY LESSENING ACROSS
EASTERN MA BETWEEN 11 AND 12 NOON. WHERE THE PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY LESSENS...MAY SEE A CHANGE TO SLEET AND RAIN FOR A
WHILE. ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE MA...THE PRECIPITATION MAY LESSEN A
LITTLE BUT NOT AS MUCH DUE TO AN ANTICIPATED DEFORMATION ZONE
ALONG WITH FRONTOGENIC FORCING HOLDING ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AFT ABOUT 4 PM...WILL SEE WINDS BACKING TO NNW AND NW AND A
CRASHING OF HEIGHTS AND THICKENESSES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. TIMING OF THE END OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM FROM WEST TO EAST.
ALTHOUGH NOT REALLY ANTICIPATING A TRUE FLASH FREEZE...THERE IS A
CONCERN OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN
PORTION OF AREA WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW AND
CAUSING SLUSH TO FREEZE. HRRR TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE HANDLING
CURRENT CONDITIONS WELL AND ARE PRIMARY TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
SOURCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
815 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA IN THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. HEAVY SNOW MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AND SLEET
FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID LEVEL LOW/S INTENSIFY ANOTHER BURST OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW EXPECT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. TOTAL ACCUMS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES EXPECTED. THE SNOW IS WET SO THERE IS A RISK FOR SOME DOWNED
TREE LIMBS/ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND FELT IT WAS WORTH AN UPGRADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS ONGOING IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN CLOSE TO 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ONSET AND
WE COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE WINTRY MIX BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. IN FACT PORTIONS OF SW CT HAVE ALREADY SEEN OVER
3-6 INCHES AS OF 630 AM.
LOOKING AT OKX DUAL-POL RADAR...APPEARS MIXING LINE FOR RAIN/SNOW
IS JUST APPROACHING THE CT SOUTH COAST. ACROSS LONG ISLAND THEY
ARE SEEING ALL RAIN WHERE AS IN CT IT IS STILL SNOWING. THIS LINE
IS PROGRESSING NORTHWARD QUICKLY...SO WE MAY START SEEING SOME
MIXING IN WESTERLY AND SOUTH COUNTY RI WITHIN THE HOUR.
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW TOTALS ESP ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE BURST OF SNOW BUT THUS FAR EVERYTHING IS ON TRACK
FOR THIS SYSTEM.
MORE DETAILS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM BELOW:
HIGHLIGHTS...
* FAST MOVING COASTAL STORM TODAY.
* NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR NORTHEAST MASS.
* CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET POTENTIAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
PIKE.
* STRONG WINDS FOR THE SOUTHEAST MA THIS EVENING.
HEADLINES...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AS SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREV FORECASTERS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANYONE WILL SEE 10 INCHES DUE TO THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW AND HOW
PROGRESSIVE THIS SYSTEM IS. DID ADD COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY TO THE
WARNING AS THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO DECENT FGEN AND OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION.
ALSO ADDED NEWPORT COUNTY IN RHODE ISLAND AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH TO
THE ADVISORY AS THEY COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE
ONSET BUT WILL CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX WHICH COULD MAKE
THINGS SLICK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN.
OVERVIEW...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHEAST HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AND BOMB
OUT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THEN PREV RUNS HOWEVER THIS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY SINCE THERMAL PROFILES ARE ISOTHERMAL...ONE DEGREE CAN
ADD OR SUBTRACT SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SNOW AMOUNTS.
FOR THIS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARDS THE 00Z NAM/EC/RGEM WHICH ARE ALL
IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER. FEEL THE GFS QPF IS A LITTLE UNDERDONE.
THE 06Z NAM CAME IN RATHER WARM THEN REST OF GUIDANCE AND ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART. SO EVEN FORECAST GUIDANCE IS STILL FLIP-FLOPPING ON
THERMAL FIELDS WITHIN 3-6 HOURS OF THIS EVENT. THE 00Z TREND IS ALSO
FASTER SO HAVE SPEED THE SYSTEM UP WITHIN THE FORECAST BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. APPEARS THAT TONIGHT WE MAY JUST SEE A FEW FLAKES ON THE CAPE
AS THIS SYSTEM EXIT THE REGION QUICKLY. LASTLY...MODELS ARE ALSO
INDICATING A GOOD COLD CONVEYOR BELT SET-UP ON THE BACKSIDE SO
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN MASS WHICH COULD SEE
DESCENT SNOW AMOUNTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
1) TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE...
PRECIP HAS ALREADY ENTERED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD OVER
SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE REGION BY 7AM. AS NOTED BY PREV
FORECASTERS...THIS SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO LACK OF
BLOCKING UPSTREAM. SINCE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED THE
ONSET...EXPECT PRECIP TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 5-
9PM.
P-TYPE ISSUES ARE TRICKY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A DIFFERENCE OF ONE
DEGREE CAN CAUSE CHANGES WITH P-TYPE. SNOW WILL START AREA WIDE
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS THANKS TO OVERRUNNING FROM THE
WAA. THERMAL PROFILES ARE STILL WAVY...SO BELIEVE THAT A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN CT...RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO BOS WHEN TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM
AT 850MB. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN AFTER THE INITIAL ONSET OF SNOW ACROSS
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ALL SNOW WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS IN MASS.
TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THIS EVENT...WILL GENERALLY BE 3-6 INCHES WITH
SOME 6 TO 9 INCH REPORTS ALONG THE WORCESTER HILLS AND INTO INTERIOR
NORTHEAST MASS.
2) RISK FOR NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW...
THERE IS A RISK FOR A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA IS IN INTERIOR ESSEX COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF MIDDLESEX
COUNTY THAT IS ALONG THE I-495 BELT. IT WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WARM
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
ALSO THERMAL FIELDS SOUTH OF THE PIKE ARE TO MARGINAL AND WITH MIX
MOVING IN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER. WHERE THIS HEAVY BAND
SETS-UP THE RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES AND DOWN TREE LIMBS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY ESP IF SNOW TOTALS ARE 6+ INCHES.
3) STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO BOMBOGENESIS AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE
BENCHMARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM DROPS 40 MB IN 24 HOURS AS
IT WILL BE A SUB 970 MB ONCE IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE BENCHMARK. WIND
POTENTIAL IS LIMITED DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE WIND ADV CRITERIA ALONG THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
NO CHANGES TO WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
4) COASTAL FLOODING...
SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AFTER THE BRIEF BURST OF SNOW/WIND EXPECT A BREEZY AND COLD NIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRES ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO DRY AREA ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LEFTOVER PATCHY BLACK ICE
AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S BY DAYBREAK SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY
* WINTER STORM "MAY" BE BACK ON THE TABLE LATE MON/TUE - LOW
CONFIDENCE
* VERY COLD MON-WED WITH MODERATING TEMPS THU/FRI
DETAILS...
SUNDAY...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALREADY HAVE LIFTED INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY SUN AM. IN ITS WAKE...DRY BUT BLUSTERY AND
SEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...BUT
IT WILL FEEL A BIT COLDER WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND
30 MPH.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND
PARTICULARLY THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE NOW STRONGER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH CAPTURES LOW
PRESSURE ALLOWING A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. KEEP IN MIND THIS IS JUST
ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN AND THE FIRST TO SHOW IT. MUCH OF THE 00Z
GUIDANCE IS STILL WAY SOUTHEAST AND PRETTY MUCH A MISS FOR MOST OF
THE REGION. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS WAS JUST A HICCUP OR IF THE
ECMWF AND A FEW OF THE GEFS ARE ONTO SOMETHING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REGARDLESS IF WE GET A WINTER STORM OR NOT...OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE ISLANDS WITH VERY COLD
NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OVER THE OCEAN. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD
MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE...WHEN HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE TEENS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...
IF WE DO END UP WITH THAT WINTER STORM...IT WOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END BY EARLY WED. STILL WILL BE VERY COLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS EXPECTED EARLY WED MORNING.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR. SOME MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST BY FRI...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOST AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN IMPROVE W TO E 22Z TO 01Z. RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING...ALTHOUGH ANY NEW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BEFORE FREEZING
THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NW. COULD BE A BURST OF SNOW AT CAPE COD TAF SITES
BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING WITH LOW VSBYS AND QUICK COATING TO AN INCH
DURING THE EVENING. AFTER ENDING EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
BUT WITH WIND GUSTS 20-30KT OUT OF THE NW...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 35 KT
LIKELY OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS. NW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING. RAIN NOW WILL LIKELY MIX BACK WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING EARLY EVENING...PROBABLY CHANGING BACK IN THE
21Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME. UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MIXED RAIN...SNOW AND
SLEET CHANGING BACK TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AFTER 20Z OR 21Z BEFORE
ENDING ENDING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 22Z. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING AFTER 22Z.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAYNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP IF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION
LATE MON INTO TUE. HIGHEST RISK SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE COAST DEPENDING ON TRACK OF
THE STORM.
WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHAT EVER HAPPENS WITH THE
STORM LATE MON INTO TUE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRENGTHEN COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY MOVE INSIDE THE 70N/40W
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THIS LOW WILL `BOMB` OUT...MEANING THAT
INTENSE PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS OUT OF THE N-NE...THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NW BY LATE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OVER. EXPECT
HEAVY RAIN AND FOG...POSSIBLY EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW CLOSER TO
THE SHORE. THE GALES BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO
ABOUT 15 FT ON THE OUTER SE WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KNOTS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. HOW CLOSE THIS
LOW TRACKS TO THE COAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...SHOULD HAVE STRONG SCA TO NORTHEAST GALE GUSTS LATE
MON/TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS. IF
COASTAL LOW TRACKS FURTHER WEST LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF...SEAS OF 20+
FEET AND STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE
DETERMINED BY TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW LATE MON INTO TUE. MAY HAVE
AT LEAST SOME LEFT OVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
**POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE**
1 PM UPDATE...LOOKS LIKE A SURGE OF GENERALLY .7 TO 1.0 FT AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE 2 TO 230 PM. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
POCKETS OF MINOR FLOODING COVERS THIS WELL. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE TO PRECLUDE ANY
COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE DURING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
1045 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGE IN THINKING REGARDING THE COASTAL FLOOD
RISK. TIDES ARE HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY BUT NOT ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OR SEAS BY THE TIME OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH
TIDE...2 TO 230 PM MOST E MA LOCATIONS. CURRENT SURGE IS AROUND OR
A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF A FOOT...PROBABLY BUILDING TO NEAR A FOOT
BY THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE...AIDED SOME BY RAPID PRESSURE FALLS.
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS STORM AND LACK OF ONSHORE
WIND/HIGH SEAS...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD
EVENT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE SOME POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE CYCLE. BOSTON HAS AN ASTRO TIDE OF 11.4 FEET AT 230 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A 0.5 TO 1 FOOT STORM SURGE ALONG WITH
FAIRLY RAPID PRESSURE FALLS. SO DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONG
WINDS/HIGH SEAS...EXPECT SOME POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
THERE IS A LOWER ASTRO HIGH TIDE OF 11.0 FEET IN BOSTON AT AROUND
230 AM SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME WINDS WILL BE
OFFSHORE SO WERE ONLY CONCERNED ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON/S HIGH TIDE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002-
003-008-009-017>021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ004>007-010>016-026.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
RIZ002>007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/THOMPSON
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1112 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A WINTER
STORM "MAY" BE BACK ON THE TABLE FOR SOME OF THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WHETHER OR NOT WE
HAVE A WINTER STORM...IT WILL BE VERY COLD MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
RAIN/SNOW LINE PARTLY A FUNCTION OF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND
HENCE SEEING SOME BACK AND FORTH PTYPE ACROSS SE MA AND RI. WE ARE
MAINTAINING THE SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST AS STILL
LOOKING GOOD OVERALL EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO FAR N MIDDLESEX COUNTY.
RADAR INDICATES PRECIPITATION LIGHTENING ACROSS CT AT 1045 AM AND
ANTICIPATE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY LESSENING ACROSS
EASTERN MA BETWEEN 11 AND 12 NOON. WHERE THE PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY LESSENS...MAY SEE A CHANGE TO SLEET AND RAIN FOR A
WHILE. ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE MA...THE PRECIPITATION MAY LESSEN A
LITTLE BUT NOT AS MUCH DUE TO AN ANTICIPATED DEFORMATION ZONE
ALONG WITH FRONTOGENIC FORCING HOLDING ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AFT ABOUT 4 PM...WILL SEE WINDS BACKING TO NNW AND NW AND A
CRASHING OF HEIGHTS AND THICKENESSES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. TIMING OF THE END OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM FROM WEST TO EAST.
ALTHOUGH NOT REALLY ANTICIPATING A TRUE FLASH FREEZE...THERE IS A
CONCERN OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN
PORTION OF AREA WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW AND
CAUSING SLUSH TO FREEZE. HRRR TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE HANDLING
CURRENT CONDITIONS WELL AND ARE PRIMARY TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
SOURCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
815 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA IN THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. HEAVY SNOW MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AND SLEET
FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID LEVEL LOW/S INTENSIFY ANOTHER BURST OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW EXPECT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. TOTAL ACCUMS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES EXPECTED. THE SNOW IS WET SO THERE IS A RISK FOR SOME DOWNED
TREE LIMBS/ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND FELT IT WAS WORTH AN UPGRADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS ONGOING IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN CLOSE TO 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ONSET AND
WE COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE WINTRY MIX BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. IN FACT PORTIONS OF SW CT HAVE ALREADY SEEN OVER
3-6 INCHES AS OF 630 AM.
LOOKING AT OKX DUAL-POL RADAR...APPEARS MIXING LINE FOR RAIN/SNOW
IS JUST APPROACHING THE CT SOUTH COAST. ACROSS LONG ISLAND THEY
ARE SEEING ALL RAIN WHERE AS IN CT IT IS STILL SNOWING. THIS LINE
IS PROGRESSING NORTHWARD QUICKLY...SO WE MAY START SEEING SOME
MIXING IN WESTERLY AND SOUTH COUNTY RI WITHIN THE HOUR.
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW TOTALS ESP ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE BURST OF SNOW BUT THUS FAR EVERYTHING IS ON TRACK
FOR THIS SYSTEM.
MORE DETAILS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM BELOW:
HIGHLIGHTS...
* FAST MOVING COASTAL STORM TODAY.
* NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR NORTHEAST MASS.
* CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET POTENTIAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
PIKE.
* STRONG WINDS FOR THE SOUTHEAST MA THIS EVENING.
HEADLINES...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AS SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREV FORECASTERS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANYONE WILL SEE 10 INCHES DUE TO THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW AND HOW
PROGRESSIVE THIS SYSTEM IS. DID ADD COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY TO THE
WARNING AS THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO DECENT FGEN AND OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION.
ALSO ADDED NEWPORT COUNTY IN RHODE ISLAND AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH TO
THE ADVISORY AS THEY COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE
ONSET BUT WILL CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX WHICH COULD MAKE
THINGS SLICK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN.
OVERVIEW...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHEAST HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AND BOMB
OUT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THEN PREV RUNS HOWEVER THIS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY SINCE THERMAL PROFILES ARE ISOTHERMAL...ONE DEGREE CAN
ADD OR SUBTRACT SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SNOW AMOUNTS.
FOR THIS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARDS THE 00Z NAM/EC/RGEM WHICH ARE ALL
IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER. FEEL THE GFS QPF IS A LITTLE UNDERDONE.
THE 06Z NAM CAME IN RATHER WARM THEN REST OF GUIDANCE AND ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART. SO EVEN FORECAST GUIDANCE IS STILL FLIP-FLOPPING ON
THERMAL FIELDS WITHIN 3-6 HOURS OF THIS EVENT. THE 00Z TREND IS ALSO
FASTER SO HAVE SPEED THE SYSTEM UP WITHIN THE FORECAST BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. APPEARS THAT TONIGHT WE MAY JUST SEE A FEW FLAKES ON THE CAPE
AS THIS SYSTEM EXIT THE REGION QUICKLY. LASTLY...MODELS ARE ALSO
INDICATING A GOOD COLD CONVEYOR BELT SET-UP ON THE BACKSIDE SO
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN MASS WHICH COULD SEE
DESCENT SNOW AMOUNTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
1) TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE...
PRECIP HAS ALREADY ENTERED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD OVER
SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE REGION BY 7AM. AS NOTED BY PREV
FORECASTERS...THIS SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO LACK OF
BLOCKING UPSTREAM. SINCE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED THE
ONSET...EXPECT PRECIP TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 5-
9PM.
P-TYPE ISSUES ARE TRICKY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A DIFFERENCE OF ONE
DEGREE CAN CAUSE CHANGES WITH P-TYPE. SNOW WILL START AREA WIDE
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS THANKS TO OVERRUNNING FROM THE
WAA. THERMAL PROFILES ARE STILL WAVY...SO BELIEVE THAT A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN CT...RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO BOS WHEN TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM
AT 850MB. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN AFTER THE INITIAL ONSET OF SNOW ACROSS
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ALL SNOW WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS IN MASS.
TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THIS EVENT...WILL GENERALLY BE 3-6 INCHES WITH
SOME 6 TO 9 INCH REPORTS ALONG THE WORCESTER HILLS AND INTO INTERIOR
NORTHEAST MASS.
2) RISK FOR NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW...
THERE IS A RISK FOR A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA IS IN INTERIOR ESSEX COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF MIDDLESEX
COUNTY THAT IS ALONG THE I-495 BELT. IT WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WARM
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
ALSO THERMAL FIELDS SOUTH OF THE PIKE ARE TO MARGINAL AND WITH MIX
MOVING IN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER. WHERE THIS HEAVY BAND
SETS-UP THE RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES AND DOWN TREE LIMBS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY ESP IF SNOW TOTALS ARE 6+ INCHES.
3) STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO BOMBOGENESIS AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE
BENCHMARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM DROPS 40 MB IN 24 HOURS AS
IT WILL BE A SUB 970 MB ONCE IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE BENCHMARK. WIND
POTENTIAL IS LIMITED DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE WIND ADV CRITERIA ALONG THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
NO CHANGES TO WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
4) COASTAL FLOODING...
SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AFTER THE BRIEF BURST OF SNOW/WIND EXPECT A BREEZY AND COLD NIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRES ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO DRY AREA ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LEFTOVER PATCHY BLACK ICE
AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S BY DAYBREAK SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY
* WINTER STORM "MAY" BE BACK ON THE TABLE LATE MON/TUE - LOW
CONFIDENCE
* VERY COLD MON-WED WITH MODERATING TEMPS THU/FRI
DETAILS...
SUNDAY...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALREADY HAVE LIFTED INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY SUN AM. IN ITS WAKE...DRY BUT BLUSTERY AND
SEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...BUT
IT WILL FEEL A BIT COLDER WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND
30 MPH.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND
PARTICULARLY THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE NOW STRONGER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH CAPTURES LOW
PRESSURE ALLOWING A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. KEEP IN MIND THIS IS JUST
ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN AND THE FIRST TO SHOW IT. MUCH OF THE 00Z
GUIDANCE IS STILL WAY SOUTHEAST AND PRETTY MUCH A MISS FOR MOST OF
THE REGION. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS WAS JUST A HICCUP OR IF THE
ECMWF AND A FEW OF THE GEFS ARE ONTO SOMETHING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REGARDLESS IF WE GET A WINTER STORM OR NOT...OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE ISLANDS WITH VERY COLD
NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OVER THE OCEAN. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD
MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE...WHEN HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE TEENS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...
IF WE DO END UP WITH THAT WINTER STORM...IT WOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END BY EARLY WED. STILL WILL BE VERY COLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS EXPECTED EARLY WED MORNING.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR. SOME MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST BY FRI...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NO RADICAL CHANGES FROM PRIOR FORECAST. ANTICIPATE THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ALL SNOW LWM-ORH-BAF AND
NW...AND A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AS MOST TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. SLEET AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT BOS...BDL...PVD...OWD
AND OTHER N CT...N RI...AND E MA AIRPORTS. AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...ANY WINTRY PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND QUICKLY MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NW. COULD BE A BURST OF SNOW AT CAPE COD TAF SITES
BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING WITH LOW VSBYS AND QUICK ACCUMS DURING THE
EVENING. AFTER ENDING EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BUT WITH
WIND GUSTS 20-30KT OUT OF THE NW.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING OF MIXING. LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE SNOW WILL MIX
WITH SLEET AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MIXED SNOW AND SLEET TO
ABOUT 20Z WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF MAINLY SNOW BEFORE
ENDING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 22Z. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP IF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION
LATE MON INTO TUE. HIGHEST RISK SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE COAST DEPENDING ON TRACK OF
THE STORM.
WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHAT EVER HAPPENS WITH THE
STORM LATE MON INTO TUE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRENGTHEN COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY MOVE INSIDE THE 70N/40W
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THIS LOW WILL `BOMB` OUT...MEANING THAT
INTENSE PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS OUT OF THE N-NE...THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NW BY LATE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OVER. EXPECT
HEAVY RAIN AND FOG...POSSIBLY EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW CLOSER TO
THE SHORE. THE GALES BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO
ABOUT 15 FT ON THE OUTER SE WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KNOTS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. HOW CLOSE THIS
LOW TRACKS TO THE COAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...SHOULD HAVE STRONG SCA TO NORTHEAST GALE GUSTS LATE
MON/TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS. IF
COASTAL LOW TRACKS FURTHER WEST LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF...SEAS OF 20+
FEET AND STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE
DETERMINED BY TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW LATE MON INTO TUE. MAY HAVE
AT LEAST SOME LEFT OVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
**POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE**
1045 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGE IN THINKING REGARDING THE COASTAL FLOOD
RISK. TIDES ARE HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY BUT NOT ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OR SEAS BY THE TIME OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH
TIDE...2 TO 230 PM MOST E MA LOCATIONS. CURRENT SURGE IS AROUND OR
A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF A FOOT...PROBABLY BUILDING TO NEAR A FOOT
BY THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE...AIDED SOME BY RAPID PRESSURE FALLS.
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS STORM AND LACK OF ONSHORE
WIND/HIGH SEAS...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD
EVENT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE SOME POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE CYCLE. BOSTON HAS AN ASTRO TIDE OF 11.4 FEET AT 230 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A 0.5 TO 1 FOOT STORM SURGE ALONG WITH
FAIRLY RAPID PRESSURE FALLS. SO DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONG
WINDS/HIGH SEAS...EXPECT SOME POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
THERE IS A LOWER ASTRO HIGH TIDE OF 11.0 FEET IN BOSTON AT AROUND
230 AM SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME WINDS WILL BE
OFFSHORE SO WERE ONLY CONCERNED ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON/S HIGH TIDE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002-
003-008-009-017>021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ004>007-010>016-026.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
RIZ002>007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
420 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A WINTER
STORM "MAY" BE BACK ON THE TABLE FOR SOME OF THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WHETHER OR NOT WE
HAVE A WINTER STORM...IT WILL BE VERY COLD MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
**COASTAL STORM BRINGS MIXED PRECIP...WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING**
4AM UPDATE...
OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS ONGOING AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS. MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS IMPACTED
RIGHT NOW WITH HEAVY SNOW. IN FACT PORTIONS OF NJ AND EASTERN PA
HAS SEEN OVER 5 INCHES AS OF 330 AM. SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO
FALL IN CT AND SOUTHERN RI AND EXPECT THE SNOW TO SPREAD RAPIDLY
NORTHWARD.
LATEST SREF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SNOW FALL RATES MAY BE AN INCH
AN HOUR AT THE ONSET AND THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING DOWNSTREAM. HI-
RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR ARE PINPOINTING CT AND RI AS
LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE THIS SNOW BURST. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE
REDUCED VERY QUICKLY...DOWN TO HALF OF A MILE OR LESS IN SOME
LOCATIONS. EXPECT A QUICK THUMP OF SNOW ONCE PRECIP MOVES IN WHICH
COULD QUICKLY ADD UP TO 1-3 INCHES BEFORE ANY WINTRY MIX BEGINS.
MORE DETAILS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM BELOW:
HIGHLIGHTS...
* FAST MOVING COASTAL STORM TODAY.
* NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR NORTHEAST MASS.
* CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET POTENTIAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
PIKE.
* STRONG WINDS FOR THE SOUTHEAST MA THIS EVENING.
HEADLINES...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AS SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREV FORECASTERS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANYONE WILL SEE 10 INCHES DUE TO THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW AND HOW
PROGRESSIVE THIS SYSTEM IS. DID ADD COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY TO THE
WARNING AS THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO DECENT FGEN AND OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION.
ALSO ADDED NEWPORT COUNTY IN RHODE ISLAND AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH TO
THE ADVISORY AS THEY COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE
ONSET BUT WILL CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX WHICH COULD MAKE
THINGS SLICK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN.
OVERVIEW...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHEAST HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AND BOMB
OUT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THEN PREV RUNS HOWEVER THIS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY SINCE THERMAL PROFILES ARE ISOTHERMAL...ONE DEGREE CAN
ADD OR SUBTRACT SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SNOW AMOUNTS.
FOR THIS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARDS THE 00Z NAM/EC/RGEM WHICH ARE ALL
IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER. FEEL THE GFS QPF IS A LITTLE UNDERDONE.
THE 06Z NAM CAME IN RATHER WARM THEN REST OF GUIDANCE AND ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART. SO EVEN FORECAST GUIDANCE IS STILL FLIP-FLOPPING ON
THERMAL FIELDS WITHIN 3-6 HOURS OF THIS EVENT. THE 00Z TREND IS ALSO
FASTER SO HAVE SPEED THE SYSTEM UP WITHIN THE FORECAST BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. APPEARS THAT TONIGHT WE MAY JUST SEE A FEW FLAKES ON THE CAPE
AS THIS SYSTEM EXIT THE REGION QUICKLY. LASTLY...MODELS ARE ALSO
INDICATING A GOOD COLD CONVEYOR BELT SET-UP ON THE BACKSIDE SO
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN MASS WHICH COULD SEE
DESCENT SNOW AMOUNTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
1) TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE...
PRECIP HAS ALREADY ENTERED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD OVER
SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE REGION BY 7AM. AS NOTED BY PREV
FORECASTERS...THIS SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO LACK OF
BLOCKING UPSTREAM. SINCE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED THE
ONSET...EXPECT PRECIP TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 5-
9PM.
P-TYPE ISSUES ARE TRICKY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A DIFFERENCE OF ONE
DEGREE CAN CAUSE CHANGES WITH P-TYPE. SNOW WILL START AREA WIDE
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS THANKS TO OVERRUNNING FROM THE
WAA. THERMAL PROFILES ARE STILL WAVY...SO BELIEVE THAT A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN CT...RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO BOS WHEN TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM
AT 850MB. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN AFTER THE INITIAL ONSET OF SNOW ACROSS
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ALL SNOW WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS IN MASS.
TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THIS EVENT...WILL GENERALLY BE 3-6 INCHES WITH
SOME 6 TO 9 INCH REPORTS ALONG THE WORCESTER HILLS AND INTO INTERIOR
NORTHEAST MASS.
2) RISK FOR NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW...
THERE IS A RISK FOR A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA IS IN INTERIOR ESSEX COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF MIDDLESEX
COUNTY THAT IS ALONG THE I-495 BELT. IT WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WARM
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
ALSO THERMAL FIELDS SOUTH OF THE PIKE ARE TO MARGINAL AND WITH MIX
MOVING IN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER. WHERE THIS HEAVY BAND
SETS-UP THE RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES AND DOWN TREE LIMBS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY ESP IF SNOW TOTALS ARE 6+ INCHES.
3) STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO BOMBOGENESIS AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE
BENCHMARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM DROPS 40 MB IN 24 HOURS AS
IT WILL BE A SUB 970 MB ONCE IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE BENCHMARK. WIND
POTENTIAL IS LIMITED DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE WIND ADV CRITERIA ALONG THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
NO CHANGES TO WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
4) COASTAL FLOODING...
SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AFTER THE BRIEF BURST OF SNOW/WIND EXPECT A BREEZY AND COLD NIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRES ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO DRY AREA ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LEFTOVER PATCHY BLACK ICE
AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S BY DAYBREAK SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY
* WINTER STORM "MAY" BE BACK ON THE TABLE LATE MON/TUE - LOW
CONFIDENCE
* VERY COLD MON-WED WITH MODERATING TEMPS THU/FRI
DETAILS...
SUNDAY...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALREADY HAVE LIFTED INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY SUN AM. IN ITS WAKE...DRY BUT BLUSTERY AND
SEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...BUT
IT WILL FEEL A BIT COLDER WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND
30 MPH.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND
PARTICULARLY THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE NOW STRONGER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH CAPTURES LOW
PRESSURE ALLOWING A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. KEEP IN MIND THIS IS JUST
ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN AND THE FIRST TO SHOW IT. MUCH OF THE 00Z
GUIDANCE IS STILL WAY SOUTHEAST AND PRETTY MUCH A MISS FOR MOST OF
THE REGION. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS WAS JUST A HICCUP OR IF THE
ECMWF AND A FEW OF THE GEFS ARE ONTO SOMETHING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REGARDLESS IF WE GET A WINTER STORM OR NOT...OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE ISLANDS WITH VERY COLD
NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OVER THE OCEAN. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD
MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE...WHEN HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE TEENS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...
IF WE DO END UP WITH THAT WINTER STORM...IT WOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END BY EARLY WED. STILL WILL BE VERY COLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS EXPECTED EARLY WED MORNING.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR. SOME MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST BY FRI...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH HAVE SOMEWHAT HIGH CONFIDENCE...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING OR WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW/MIX LINE ENDS UP. COASTAL LOW
WILL PASS SE OF THE REGION. ANY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
IN RAIN AND HEAVY WET SNOW. SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ALONG THE RUNWAYS
AS SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE CLOSE TO AN INCH AN HOUR AND VSBYS WILL
DROP TO A QUICK 1/2SM AT THE ONSET. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN ON CAPE
COD AND ISLANDS BY MID-MORNING BEFORE CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING
WHEN N/NW WINDS COULD GUST TO 45KT. A FEW SITES WILL SEE A WINTRY
MIX DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS...ESP BDL-ORH-BOS LINE SOUTHWARD.
TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW. COULD BE A BURST OF
SNOW AT CAPE COD TAF SITES BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING WITH LOW VSBYS
AND QUICK ACCUMS DURING THE EVENING. AFTER ENDING EXPECT RAPID
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BUT WITH WIND GUSTS 20-30KT OUT OF THE NW.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING OF MIXING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING OF MIXING.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP IF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION
LATE MON INTO TUE. HIGHEST RISK SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE COAST DEPENDING ON TRACK OF
THE STORM.
WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHAT EVER HAPPENS WITH THE
STORM LATE MON INTO TUE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRENGTHEN COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY MOVE INSIDE THE 70N/40W
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THIS LOW WILL `BOMB` OUT...MEANING THAT
INTENSE PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS OUT OF THE N-NE...THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NW BY LATE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OVER. EXPECT
HEAVY RAIN AND FOG...POSSIBLY EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW CLOSER TO
THE SHORE. THE GALES BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO
ABOUT 15 FT ON THE OUTER SE WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KNOTS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. HOW CLOSE THIS
LOW TRACKS TO THE COAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...SHOULD HAVE STRONG SCA TO NORTHEAST GALE GUSTS LATE
MON/TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS. IF
COASTAL LOW TRACKS FURTHER WEST LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF...SEAS OF 20+
FEET AND STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE
DETERMINED BY TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW LATE MON INTO TUE. MAY HAVE
AT LEAST SOME LEFT OVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
**POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE**
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS STORM AND LACK OF ONSHORE
WIND/HIGH SEAS...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD
EVENT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE SOME POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE CYCLE. BOSTON HAS AN ASTRO TIDE OF 11.4 FEET AT 230 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A 0.5 TO 1 FOOT STORM SURGE ALONG WITH
FAIRLY RAPID PRESSURE FALLS. SO DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONG
WINDS/HIGH SEAS...EXPECT SOME POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
THERE IS A LOWER ASTRO HIGH TIDE OF 11.0 FEET IN BOSTON AT AROUND
230 AM SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME WINDS WILL BE
OFFSHORE SO WERE ONLY CONCERNED ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON/S HIGH TIDE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002-
003-008-009-015>021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ004>007-010>014-026.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
RIZ002>007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE, WE HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHL THROUGH 1PM THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS PASSED EAST AND OFFSHORE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY SOME
LIGHT SNOW FOR THESE AREAS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN, MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. WITH THE CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIP, THERE WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SOME IMPACT TO TRAVEL, AT LEAST UNTIL THE ROADS ARE
COMPLETELY CLEARED. THE EXTENSION OF THIS WARNING ALSO MATCHES
SIMILAR HEADLINE PRODUCTS FROM OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
ELSEWHERE FOR THE FORECAST AREA, THE RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO BE
SETTING UP JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, AND
ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. FARTHER SOUTH, WE HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS IN PLACE FOR RAIN FOR
FAR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND NJ, AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GOOD FLOW
OF MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES
JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAP AND HRRR
DATA.
OTHERWISE, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE COLUMN ALOFT DRIES OUT/WARMS UP TO
THE POINT WE LOSE OUR ICE CRYSTALS. MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY MAKE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH IT SHOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED. COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN BACK OVER TO
SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.
A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!
TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. .
THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.
FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR, IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY WET SNOW. TTN-ABE-RDG SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY DRYING OUT SOME AS WE NEAR MID-DAY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME DRYING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT...VFR. BRISK WNW WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD. CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.
TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-
055-060>062-103-105.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
910 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
820 PM CST
PCPN IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
STILL RATHER BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA...THE GENERAL TREND OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FOR WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO DROP OFF WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES
AND SOME COOLER AIR FILTERING IN AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT TODAY`S PRECIPITATION
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. THE
LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE NEXT CLIPPER
DROPPING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...WITH SOME MODEST LIFT IN THE
ZONE AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER.
SO HAVE INCREASED POPS...WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALSO...THE THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...WITH A
DEEP ENOUGH SATURATED LAYER TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW...AND LESSER
CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO...HAVE REMOVED THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE MENTION FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. STILL FEEL THAT THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TOMORROW NIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ALOFT LOWERS THE DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE
THE CHANCE FOR ICE PRODUCTION IN THE SATURATED LAYER. WHILE POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED...THERE IS LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...SO ACTUAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...ONLY
PERHAPS A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
KREIN
&&
.SHORT TERM...
206 PM CST
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
COOL AIR HAS STRUGGLED TO SLIDE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER TEMPS
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL INTO THE UPR 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWFA TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW 30S WITH
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS NOT MUCH MORE THAN 1 TO 2 DEGREES. NORTH OF
I-80 PRECIP IS MAINLY FLURRIES...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX SLOWLY
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN IL...AND WILL STEADILY BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.
SFC RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SAG SOUTH AND
EXPAND TO COVER A PORTION OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MISSOURI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. WHILE SOME EROSION TO THE CLOUDS IS PROBABLE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
MON. CURRENTLY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE MID/UPR
TEENS...HOWEVER THIS WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
MON.
THE BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS MON MORNING WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING MON AFTN/EVE. GUIDANCE HAS MAINTAINED A
PROGRESSIVE LOOK TO THIS NEXT WAVE...HOWEVER OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
ARE EQUALLY BULLISH ON EROSION OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW
LAYERS OF THE ATMOS LATE MON NGT. HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT P-TYPE MON
AFTN/EVE. AT THE ONSET MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THRU THE -10
DEG C LAYER AND TOUCH THE FAVORED DGZ...HOWEVER THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW MON EVE. ALONG WITH THE LACK OF GOOD
LIFT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT PRECIP
MAY BE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/LGT-SNOW.
A WEAK THERMAL RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH OVERHEAD MON AFTN...AS LLVL FLOW
TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY. TEMPS SHUD HOVER ARND FREEZING...HOWEVER THIS
WILL HINGE ON CLOUD COVER ARRIVAL AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP. IF THIS
IS DELAYED...TEMPS COULD PUSH A FEW DEGREES WARMER MON EARLY AFTN.
HEIGHTS SLOWLY INCREASE MON NGT...WITH THE MOISTURE PEELING EAST
ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. AT THIS TIME HAVE MAINTAINED A
MENTION OF LGT SNOW OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MON NGT...BUT COULD
END UP WITH A DRY PERIOD.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
206 PM CST
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WEAKENING WITH RIDGING
EXPANDING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHUD PLACE THE BULK
OF THE REGION INTO A WEAK SFC RIDGE TUE/WED. WED AFTN THE SFC RIDGE
QUICKLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST...WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME WARM AIR TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWFA AND PUSH SFC TEMPS CLOSE TO 40 DEG.
WITH A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP WED NGT/THUR...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A ROBUST
MID-LVL VORT WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE
PLAINS WED EVE. GUIDANCE THEN FURTHER STRENGTHENS THIS WAVE AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THUR. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS
THAT PRECIP COULD START AS MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...THEN
DYNAMICALLY COOL OVERNIGHT INTO THUR AND TRANSITION PRECIP OVER TO
LGT SNOW.
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 20S/LOW
30S.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY`S WEATHER IS QUICKLY MOVING AWAY AND
ANTICIPATE WINDS TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING WEAK SYSTEM SLATED TO AFFECT THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE A SEVERAL HOUR
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW COULD OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT AND CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY
HIGH SO HAVE JUST MAINTAINED PROB30 FOR NOW. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
APPEAR OVERLY PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE RECENTLY MORE SUPERIORLY
PERFORMING MAV GUIDANCE WITH JUST SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL TREND MORE LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY THEN CHANCE OF -RASN AND MVFR/IFR
AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW. MVFR LIKELY/IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY EARLY.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/MVFR CIGS.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
131 PM CST
A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 30-35 KT CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AND THESE WINDS LOOK TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE A DIMINISHING TREND BEGINS
EARLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WEAKENING LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD JUST
WEST OF THE LAKE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE DURING THIS PERIOD. LATER IN
THE WEEK ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
835 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
Have tweaked temps/winds/sky for tonight and flurries for
tomorrow. For most part current package is on track.
Precip coming to an end as surface system over central KY
continues to pull away from Illinois. Still could be a snow or
rain shower over the next several hours east of I-57, but for the
most part any significant precip has ended. Weak ridge is building
into Illinois from the northeast scattering out the cloudcover
over western Illinois this evening. This partial clearing will
likely spread only slowly south and east and then be overtaken by
clouds associated with next quick system for Monday. Moisture
remains quite limited with this second cliper and for now will
keep only flurry wording. Forecast soundings from 18z NAM and GFS
suggest that there also could be some freezing drizzle/sprinkles as the
atmospheric column is expected to be quite dry above -8C and it
may be difficult to form ice crystals. Will have to look closer at
this potential once the full 00z model suite has been analyzed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
Area of low pressure which has brought our precipitation was
centered near Carbondale early this afternoon. Rain/snow transition
line has been struggling to move any further south, and in fact
areas from Macomb to Bloomington which had switched over were
starting to mix with rain again. Temperatures have been above
freezing over most of the snow area and accumulations have been
minor and slushy, but some more substantial 1-2 inch totals have
occurred north of Galesburg where temperatures are now below
freezing. The deformation band of snow has been weakening some the
last few hours, and there is a substantial hole in the precip over
the central 2/3 of the forecast area.
The RAP model shows a further weakening of the the deformation band
over the next few hours, and actually has the entire CWA dry by 6
pm. Have some concerns that may be too quick across the southeast,
as the upper wave continues to dig across southeast Missouri, and
have lingered some likely PoP`s down there slightly beyond that time
frame, but reduced PoP`s to below 20% by 9 pm.
Overnight, models are trying to show some substantial clearing over
most of the forecast area beginning late evening. While there is
some breakup of the clouds upstream across Wisconsin, it is not
completely clear up there and the north/northeast flow is not
especially conducive to rapid clearing. Have gone with partly cloudy
skies overnight across the northwest half of the forecast area, but
clouds will already been increasing ahead of the next clipper which
will be dropping southeast into northern Minnesota overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
A couple of cooler days are on tap across central and southeast
Illinois in the wake of today`s clipper. There is still a chance we
may see a few snow flakes or sprinkles on Monday as a shearing
upper-level wave, currently diving across the Canadian Prairies,
passes through the Great Lakes region and parts of the Midwest.
However, looking at forecast soundings, there will be a very small
window of opportunity where ice crystals will be present, suggesting
the chance of measurable precipitation is quite low. So, for now,
will only carry a chance of flurries Monday across the northern
portion of the forecast area as the very sheared wave passes to our
north. It is definitely possible that we will see nothing at all, or
perhaps some light drizzle or freezing drizzle (depending on surface
temperatures) due to the paucity of ice crystals.
Temperatures will warm heading into midweek as the persistent
amplified upper-level flow briefly turns more zonal, and a system
approaches from the Pacific coast. This system will mainly pose a
rain threat as it moves through Wednesday night into Thursday. A
brief period of snow is not out of the question later Thursday as
cold air filters in behind the system, but forecast soundings
currently suggest the moisture depth will be too shallow to support
precipitation (no ice crystals) by the time the thermal profile
would support snow.
Another cool down is expected in the wake of the midweek system, but
temperatures should still be near normal for late January. The
eastern North American mean trof that has been in place will try to
reestablish itself by the weekend. A clipper type wave in the
returning northwest upper-level flow may bring a chance of snow to
the area over the weekend. However, the current storm track keeps
the best snow chances to our north, and have only included a slight
chance of snow at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
Surface low near KSDF at 23z will continue to push away from
terminals this evening. Precip should continue to diminish as weak
ridging moves into area. Ridging also reduces the gradient over
the region early this evening suggesting the ongoing gusty winds
will drop off rather quickly.
Area of clearing between systems is pushing south and is
approaching KMLI at 23z. This area will slow as it pushes south
and low-level winds diminish but will likely move into KPIA later
this evening with at least some scattering of the current ceiling
and then spread more slowly south and east overnight.
Next system is already approaching on Monday as weak channeled
vorticity plunges down deep east coast trough. Mid-level CIGS will
spread across the area during the morning with lowering decks into
MVFR by the end of the TAF valid time. Still some question as to
how far SW light precip can develop during the afternoon so we
leave out of all terminals at this point.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barker
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
542 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...
206 PM CST
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
COOL AIR HAS STRUGGLED TO SLIDE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER TEMPS
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL INTO THE UPR 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWFA TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW 30S WITH
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS NOT MUCH MORE THAN 1 TO 2 DEGREES. NORTH OF
I-80 PRECIP IS MAINLY FLURRIES...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX SLOWLY
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN IL...AND WILL STEADILY BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.
SFC RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SAG SOUTH AND
EXPAND TO COVER A PORTION OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MISSOURI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. WHILE SOME EROSION TO THE CLOUDS IS PROBABLE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
MON. CURRENTLY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE MID/UPR
TEENS...HOWEVER THIS WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
MON.
THE BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS MON MORNING WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING MON AFTN/EVE. GUIDANCE HAS MAINTAINED A
PROGRESSIVE LOOK TO THIS NEXT WAVE...HOWEVER OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
ARE EQUALLY BULLISH ON EROSION OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW
LAYERS OF THE ATMOS LATE MON NGT. HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT P-TYPE MON
AFTN/EVE. AT THE ONSET MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THRU THE -10
DEG C LAYER AND TOUCH THE FAVORED DGZ...HOWEVER THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW MON EVE. ALONG WITH THE LACK OF GOOD
LIFT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT PRECIP
MAY BE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/LGT-SNOW.
A WEAK THERMAL RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH OVERHEAD MON AFTN...AS LLVL FLOW
TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY. TEMPS SHUD HOVER ARND FREEZING...HOWEVER THIS
WILL HINGE ON CLOUD COVER ARRIVAL AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP. IF THIS
IS DELAYED...TEMPS COULD PUSH A FEW DEGREES WARMER MON EARLY AFTN.
HEIGHTS SLOWLY INCREASE MON NGT...WITH THE MOISTURE PEELING EAST
ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. AT THIS TIME HAVE MAINTAINED A
MENTION OF LGT SNOW OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MON NGT...BUT COULD
END UP WITH A DRY PERIOD.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
206 PM CST
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WEAKENING WITH RIDGING
EXPANDING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHUD PLACE THE BULK
OF THE REGION INTO A WEAK SFC RIDGE TUE/WED. WED AFTN THE SFC RIDGE
QUICKLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST...WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME WARM AIR TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWFA AND PUSH SFC TEMPS CLOSE TO 40 DEG.
WITH A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP WED NGT/THUR...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A ROBUST
MID-LVL VORT WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE
PLAINS WED EVE. GUIDANCE THEN FURTHER STRENGTHENS THIS WAVE AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THUR. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS
THAT PRECIP COULD START AS MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...THEN
DYNAMICALLY COOL OVERNIGHT INTO THUR AND TRANSITION PRECIP OVER TO
LGT SNOW.
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 20S/LOW
30S.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY`S WEATHER IS QUICKLY MOVING AWAY AND
ANTICIPATE WINDS TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING WEAK SYSTEM SLATED TO AFFECT THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE A SEVERAL HOUR
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW COULD OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT AND CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY
HIGH SO HAVE JUST MAINTAINED PROB30 FOR NOW. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
APPEAR OVERLY PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE RECENTLY MORE SUPERIORLY
PERFORMING MAV GUIDANCE WITH JUST SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL TREND MORE LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY THEN CHANCE OF -RASN AND MVFR/IFR
AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW. MVFR LIKELY/IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY EARLY.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/MVFR CIGS.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
131 PM CST
A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 30-35 KT CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AND THESE WINDS LOOK TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE A DIMINISHING TREND BEGINS
EARLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WEAKENING LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD JUST
WEST OF THE LAKE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE DURING THIS PERIOD. LATER IN
THE WEEK ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-
LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 6 PM
SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
535 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
Area of low pressure which has brought our precipitation was
centered near Carbondale early this afternoon. Rain/snow transition
line has been struggling to move any further south, and in fact
areas from Macomb to Bloomington which had switched over were
starting to mix with rain again. Temperatures have been above
freezing over most of the snow area and accumulations have been
minor and slushy, but some more substantial 1-2 inch totals have
occurred north of Galesburg where temperatures are now below
freezing. The deformation band of snow has been weakening some the
last few hours, and there is a substantial hole in the precip over
the central 2/3 of the forecast area.
The RAP model shows a further weakening of the the deformation band
over the next few hours, and actually has the entire CWA dry by 6
pm. Have some concerns that may be too quick across the southeast,
as the upper wave continues to dig across southeast Missouri, and
have lingered some likely PoP`s down there slightly beyond that time
frame, but reduced PoP`s to below 20% by 9 pm.
Overnight, models are trying to show some substantial clearing over
most of the forecast area beginning late evening. While there is
some breakup of the clouds upstream across Wisconsin, it is not
completely clear up there and the north/northeast flow is not
especially conducive to rapid clearing. Have gone with partly cloudy
skies overnight across the northwest half of the forecast area, but
clouds will already been increasing ahead of the next clipper which
will be dropping southeast into northern Minnesota overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
A couple of cooler days are on tap across central and southeast
Illinois in the wake of today`s clipper. There is still a chance we
may see a few snow flakes or sprinkles on Monday as a shearing
upper-level wave, currently diving across the Canadian Prairies,
passes through the Great Lakes region and parts of the Midwest.
However, looking at forecast soundings, there will be a very small
window of opportunity where ice crystals will be present, suggesting
the chance of measurable precipitation is quite low. So, for now,
will only carry a chance of flurries Monday across the northern
portion of the forecast area as the very sheared wave passes to our
north. It is definitely possible that we will see nothing at all, or
perhaps some light drizzle or freezing drizzle (depending on surface
temperatures) due to the paucity of ice crystals.
Temperatures will warm heading into midweek as the persistent
amplified upper-level flow briefly turns more zonal, and a system
approaches from the Pacific coast. This system will mainly pose a
rain threat as it moves through Wednesday night into Thursday. A
brief period of snow is not out of the question later Thursday as
cold air filters in behind the system, but forecast soundings
currently suggest the moisture depth will be too shallow to support
precipitation (no ice crystals) by the time the thermal profile
would support snow.
Another cool down is expected in the wake of the midweek system, but
temperatures should still be near normal for late January. The
eastern North American mean trof that has been in place will try to
reestablish itself by the weekend. A clipper type wave in the
returning northwest upper-level flow may bring a chance of snow to
the area over the weekend. However, the current storm track keeps
the best snow chances to our north, and have only included a slight
chance of snow at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
Surface low near KSDF at 23z will continue to push away from
terminals this evening. Precip should continue to diminish as weak
ridging moves into area. Ridging also reduces the gradient over
the region early this evening suggesting the ongoing gusty winds
will drop off rather quickly.
Area of clearing between systems is pushing south and is
approaching KMLI at 23z. This area will slow as it pushes south
and low-level winds diminish but will likely move into KPIA later
this evening with at least some scattering of the current ceiling
and then spread more slowly south and east overnight.
Next system is already approaching on Monday as weak channeled
vorticity plunges down deep east coast trough. Mid-level CIGS will
spread across the area during the morning with lowering decks into
MVFR by the end of the TAF valid time. Still some question as to
how far SW light precip can develop during the afternoon so we
leave out of all terminals at this point.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
553 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...
308 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
STARTING LATER TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND MUCH OF WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST U.S. A WEAK
COOL FRONT IS CROSSING THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS. COOL ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MODEST
WARM ADVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE WILD
CARD WITH TEMPS. STRATUS IS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING BUT SATELLITE SHOWS GAPS IN COVERAGE UPSTREAM.
GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER BUT SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ANY MEANINGFUL SUNSHINE DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HELPING
TEMPS SOMEWHAT. THIS IS MOST FAVORED SOUTH AND WEST SO WILL NUDGE
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY THERE WHILE CARRYING UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA.
THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A WAVE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA. EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG JET
PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY PUSHES EASTWARD AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE. THE WAVE OF
CONCERN WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A RESULT AND AMPLIFY AS IT DOES SO
INTO TONIGHT. THE SOUTH/WEST TREND OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
HAS CONTINUED AND DIFFERENCES REMAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME OF THE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE WHICH TAKES THE LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
THAN SOME OF THE LOWER RES OPTIONS. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW WILL NOT
TRACK NORTH OF ROUGHLY A BURLINGTON IOWA TO TERRE HAUTE INDIANA LINE
AT THIS POINT. WITH THE WAVE STILL TAKING SHAPE AND THE UPPER JET
STILL COMING ASHORE OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST FEEL THAT CONFIDENCE HAS
ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT WITH THE MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND
SUBSEQUENT 12Z GUIDANCE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE PLACEMENT BUT
HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE TREND OF WHAT OCCURS. PRECIP IS ON
TRACK TO QUICKLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT/AFTER
06Z/ AND SOUTHWEST AREAS STILL LOOK TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW AND
EVEN SOME SLEET THROUGH MID MORNING WHEN COLD AIR WILL TAKE OVER
CHANGING THINGS TO SNOW. PEAK PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE AFTER
DAYBREAK INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING SETTING UP A DECENT FETCH DOWN LAKE
MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE SUB PAR BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ARE PROBABLY SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SOME
MINIMAL ENHANCEMENT...MAINLY DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE FLUX.
GUIDANCE VARIES WITH LIQUID OUTPUT WITH SOME RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS
NOTED PROBABLY SUGGESTIVE OF STRONG BANDING WHICH IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 0.5 INCHES AND
FORCING OF 6 TO MAYBE 9 HOURS PEAK LIQUID AMOUNTS OF 0.3 TO 0.4
INCHES STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. LOCATION OF THESE AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH AMOUNTS OF ONLY AROUND 0.1 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH SOUTHERN AREAS ALSO SEEING A MIX NOT ALL OF
THE LIQUID WILL GO TOWARD SNOW ACCUMULATION. THUS HIGHEST SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR JUST TO THE NORTH...THOUGH WITH SOMEWHAT LOW
LIQUID EQUIVALENT. WILL DEPICT THE PEAK SNOWFALL FROM ROUGHLY
LASALLE COUNTY EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80
TO ROUGHLY KANKAKEE TO RENSSELAER. WILL CARRY 2-4 INCHES FOR THIS
AREA WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING TO ABOUT AN INCH ALONG THE WI
BORDER...WITH 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CHICAGO METRO TO
AROUND 3 POSSIBLY 4 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CHICAGO METRO.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH.
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
IF ANY LAKE EFFECT LINGERING GIVEN POOR INVERSION HEIGHTS.
HEADLINE POTENTIAL...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN
THAT A FURTHER SOUTH SHIFT IS STILL PLAUSIBLE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS
WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
FAIRLY WET SNOW RATIOS BLOWING WILL BE MINIMIZED BUT PROBABLY STILL
OCCUR. THERE IS ALSO A WINDOW FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WHERE THE FALLING SNOW AND WIND MAY PUSH VISIBILITIES DOWN
UNDER A HALF OR QUARTER MILE...BUT THIS MAY OCCUR OVER A RATHER
SMALL AREA. EXPECT TO NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE PEAK
SNOW AREA BUT AGAIN THE LOCATION MAY SHIFT AND IF BANDING DEVELOPS
THE SWATH OF SNOW COULD REALLY NARROW SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE
SYSTEM EVOLVE A LITTLE BIT MORE BEFORE DECIDING WHICH AREAS WILL SEE
THE BIGGEST IMPACT. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR NOW.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
308 AM CST
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A MUCH BETTER DEFINED RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY. ANOTHER WAVE
WILL BE TRAVERSING THE RIDGE THEN DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY BRINGING LOW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT TURNING WINDS
MORE NORTHERLY. LAKE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL BUT COULD
SEE SOME FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY DEVELOP FOR TUESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
ON A LOW CROSSING THE AREA FIRST THING THURSDAY BRINGING MIXED
PRECIP POTENTIAL OR EVEN JUST RAIN. COLDER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. OVERALL
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* PATCHY MVFR CIGS 2500-3000 FT THIS MORNING.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AGAIN THIS EVENING.
* SNOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY MORNING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 1-3 INCHES.
* WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KT TODAY/THIS EVENING...BECOMING
NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN STRONG/GUSTY NEAR 30 KTS BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING DURING THE DAY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
PATCHY MVFR CIGS 2500-3000 FT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...IN LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECTATION IS THAT MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT
BY MIDDAY. WESTERLY WINDS 260-290 DEGREES NEAR 10 KT WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO QUICK MOVING ALBERTA-CLIPPER WHICH RAPIDLY
MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS A PERIOD OF SNOW...AND
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...TO THE TERMINALS. PERHAPS AM LEAST
CONFIDENT ABOUT CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS GUIDANCE SATURATES THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRIOR TO MOISTURE
MOVING IN ALOFT. HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF MVFR
CIGS REDEVELOPING AND EVENTUALLY LOWERING A BIT ALONG WITH SOME
MINOR VIS REDUCTION IN HAZE. MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN SNOW
DEVELOPING PRIOR TO 12Z...WITH CIG/VIS CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
IFR/LIFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT AND
SATURATION. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE
DEEPENING AS IT PASSES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS
SLACKING THIS EVENING AND THEN TURNING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY TOWARD MORNING...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 KT SUNDAY. SNOW EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS TERMINALS...WITH BLOWING SNOW/DRIFTING GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM IN MVFR CIG HEIGHT AND TRENDS THIS MORNING. MEDIUM-LOW
WITH REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN SNOW TIMING LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND WITH CIG/VIS
TRENDS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR...CHANCE OF SNOW AND MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
238 AM CST
MAIN MARINE CONCERNS FOCUS ON THE PERIOD FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...AS NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FAST-MOVING DEEPENING ALBERTA-CLIPPER LOW
WHICH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHERN INDIANA DURING THE DAY.
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM THIS MORNING...LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING EAST OF
JAMES BAY ACROSS QUEBEC...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND WEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TODAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NORTH AND INCREASING BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST QUEBEC. BY
TONIGHT...THE FAST-MOVING CLIPPER WILL ALSO ALREADY BE ENTERING
IOWA AND MOVING INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE
DEEPENING A BIT. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL ALSO
HELP TO TURN WINDS NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THEM ALL THE WAY TO THE
SOUTH END OF THE LAKE AS THE LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A PERIOD OF
SOLID 30 KT NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH 2/3 OR 3/4 OF THE LAKE
SUNDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 30 KTS (MARGINAL GALE FORCE) DURING
THE DAY. WITH THE LOW MOVING QUICKLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS QUICKLY AS THEY INCREASED EARLY IN
THE DAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE IL/NW IND NEARSHORE
WATERS FROM ABOUT 6 AM CST SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
THE STRONG WINDS AND RESULTING WAVES.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO APPEAR RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY
NIGHT QUICKLY BEING DISPLACED MONDAY BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS
WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING INTO THE 25 KT RANGE FOR A
TIME MONDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THE LOW THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...FILLING AS A DEEP LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS
THE LAKE TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MOVES INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...6 AM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
536 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
A weak surface trof is expected to push across the area this morning
switching our winds more into a west to northwest direction. In
addition, latest satellite data and surface observations indicate
another band of clouds approaching from the northwest, immediately
behind the weak frontal boundary. Based on its current movement, it
appears the eastern half of the forecast area will be affected the
most from the southeastward moving clouds later this morning. This
will have an impact on afternoon highs with our east and northeast
counties trending a bit below guidance, with low to mid 40s common,
while over west central and southwest Illinois, not as much cloud
cover is expected and as a result we should push into the mid or
upper 40s this afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
00Z forecast model suite has trended further south and west surface
low pressure track going se into central IA (1003 mb) by 06Z/midnight
tonight, into south central IL by 18Z/noon Sunday, and nearing the
eastern KY and WV border by 06Z/midnight Sunday night. Have trended
a bit higher with qpf over central IL Sunday along with cooler temps
Sunday/Sunday night and bringing chances of snow further south with
the cooler air/further south track of storm system. Have increasing
chances of light rain after midnight tonight over central IL with
just slight chances of light rain late tonight in southeast IL from
I-70 southeast. Light snow could mix with light rain late tonight
north of I-74, but most areas should be rain overnight with lows in
the low to mid 30s. Raised pops to 60-90% Sunday with highest pops
northern counties where rain changes to snow especially late Sunday
morning/afternoon. Have snow chances as far south as I-70 by late
Sunday afternoon with southeast IL seeing light snow too during
Sunday evening before ending overnight Sunday night. Have 1-2 inches
of snow ne of a Canton to Lincoln to Paris line Sunday and Sunday
evening with locally higher amounts 2-3 inches in far ne CWA. A
winter weather advisory may eventually be needed in ne counties but
will issue SPS for now due to models shifting track of low pressure
past few runs. Highs Sunday range from mid 30s northern counties to
40-45F from Springfield to Terre Haute south with mid 40s near
Lawrenceville. Temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday
afternoon.
Another clipper system diving se across the western Great Lakes
Monday and Monday night to bring a chance of light snow showers to
northern/ne counties with best chances of accumulating light snow
appears to be ne of central IL. Highs Monday range from low to mid
30s from I-74 ne to the upper 30s to around 40F in sw counties. Dry
conditions expected Tue/Wed as high pressure settles into the upper
MS river valley Tue and into the Ohio river valley Wed. Highs in the
mid 30s to near 40F on Tue and climbing into the upper 30s to mid
40s Wed, with upper 40s from Jacksonville sw.
Surface low pressure system tracks into the Midwest and southern
Great Lakes region Wed night and Thu bringing a 20-30% chance of
light rain/snow. Models have trended quicker with this feature.
Above normal highs Thursday in the low to mid 40s with upper 40s in
southeast IL. Temps then cool behind this feature with highs in the
30s Friday and even colder temperatures expected next weekend with
another chance of light snow next Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
Band of MVFR cigs approaching PIA this hour and based on its
current movement will affect all but SPI thru the morning hours.
Cig bases range from 2500-3500 feet with the western edge of
the cloud deck possibly skirting PIA to the east, but for now,
will include an hour or two of the cigs at the PIA airport.
Short term models suggest some IFR or LIFR cigs and vsbys will
advect southeast into at least the northern half of the area
later this morning but have seen the models backing off that
solution in this hours run. Not seeing much in the upstream obs
to support this so will handle with a tempo group for a few hours
this morning, especially with the TAF sites along the western
periphery of the cloud band. The next weather system will push
southeast into our area after midnight bringing a gradual lowering
of the cigs along with the chance for rain to develop from northwest
to southeast after 06z. Surface winds today will be westerly at
10 to 15 kts and then start to back more into the southwest and
then south this afternoon and evening with speeds averaging from
7 to 12 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
536 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
A weak surface trof is expected to push across the area this morning
switching our winds more into a west to northwest direction. In
addition, latest satellite data and surface observations indicate
another band of clouds approaching from the northwest, immediately
behind the weak frontal boundary. Based on its current movement, it
appears the eastern half of the forecast area will be affected the
most from the southeastward moving clouds later this morning. This
will have an impact on afternoon highs with our east and northeast
counties trending a bit below guidance, with low to mid 40s common,
while over west central and southwest Illinois, not as much cloud
cover is expected and as a result we should push into the mid or
upper 40s this afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
00Z forecast model suite has trended further south and west surface
low pressure track going se into central IA (1003 mb) by 06Z/midnight
tonight, into south central IL by 18Z/noon Sunday, and nearing the
eastern KY and WV border by 06Z/midnight Sunday night. Have trended
a bit higher with qpf over central IL Sunday along with cooler temps
Sunday/Sunday night and bringing chances of snow further south with
the cooler air/further south track of storm system. Have increasing
chances of light rain after midnight tonight over central IL with
just slight chances of light rain late tonight in southeast IL from
I-70 southeast. Light snow could mix with light rain late tonight
north of I-74, but most areas should be rain overnight with lows in
the low to mid 30s. Raised pops to 60-90% Sunday with highest pops
northern counties where rain changes to snow especially late Sunday
morning/afternoon. Have snow chances as far south as I-70 by late
Sunday afternoon with southeast IL seeing light snow too during
Sunday evening before ending overnight Sunday night. Have 1-2 inches
of snow ne of a Canton to Lincoln to Paris line Sunday and Sunday
evening with locally higher amounts 2-3 inches in far ne CWA. A
winter weather advisory may eventually be needed in ne counties but
will issue SPS for now due to models shifting track of low pressure
past few runs. Highs Sunday range from mid 30s northern counties to
40-45F from Springfield to Terre Haute south with mid 40s near
Lawrenceville. Temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday
afternoon.
Another clipper system diving se across the western Great Lakes
Monday and Monday night to bring a chance of light snow showers to
northern/ne counties with best chances of accumulating light snow
appears to be ne of central IL. Highs Monday range from low to mid
30s from I-74 ne to the upper 30s to around 40F in sw counties. Dry
conditions expected Tue/Wed as high pressure settles into the upper
MS river valley Tue and into the Ohio river valley Wed. Highs in the
mid 30s to near 40F on Tue and climbing into the upper 30s to mid
40s Wed, with upper 40s from Jacksonville sw.
Surface low pressure system tracks into the Midwest and southern
Great Lakes region Wed night and Thu bringing a 20-30% chance of
light rain/snow. Models have trended quicker with this feature.
Above normal highs Thursday in the low to mid 40s with upper 40s in
southeast IL. Temps then cool behind this feature with highs in the
30s Friday and even colder temperatures expected next weekend with
another chance of light snow next Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
Band of MVFR cigs approaching PIA this hour and based on its
current movement will affect all but SPI thru the morning hours.
Cig bases range from 2500-3500 feet with the western edge of
the cloud deck possibly skirting PIA to the east, but for now,
will include an hour or two of the cigs at the PIA airport.
Short term models suggest some IFR or LIFR cigs and vsbys will
advect southeast into at least the northern half of the area
later this morning but have seen the models backing off that
solution in this hours run. Not seeing much in the upstream obs
to support this so will handle with a tempo group for a few hours
this morning, especially with the TAF sites along the western
periphery of the cloud band. The next weather system will push
southeast into our area after midnight bringing a gradual lowering
of the cigs along with the chance for rain to develop from northwest
to southeast after 06z. Surface winds today will be westerly at
10 to 15 kts and then start to back more into the southwest and
then south this afternoon and evening with speeds averaging from
7 to 12 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
329 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
A weak surface trof is expected to push across the area this morning
switching our winds more into a west to northwest direction. In
addition, latest satellite data and surface observations indicate
another band of clouds approaching from the northwest, immediately
behind the weak frontal boundary. Based on its current movement, it
appears the eastern half of the forecast area will be affected the
most from the southeastward moving clouds later this morning. This
will have an impact on afternoon highs with our east and northeast
counties trending a bit below guidance, with low to mid 40s common,
while over west central and southwest Illinois, not as much cloud
cover is expected and as a result we should push into the mid or
upper 40s this afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
00Z forecast model suite has trended further south and west surface
low pressure track going se into central IA (1003 mb) by 06Z/midnight
tonight, into south central IL by 18Z/noon Sunday, and nearing the
eastern KY and WV border by 06Z/midnight Sunday night. Have trended
a bit higher with qpf (averaging around a quarter of an inch) over
central IL Sunday along with cooler temps Sunday/Sunday night and
bringing chances of snow further south with the cooler air/further
south track of storm system. Have increasing chances of light rain
after midnight tonight over central IL with just slight chances of
light rain late tonight in southeast IL from I-70 southeast. Light
snow could mix with light rain late tonight north of I-74, but
most areas should be rain overnight with lows in the low to mid
30s. Raised pops to 60-90% Sunday with highest pops northern
counties where rain changes to snow especially late Sunday
morning/afternoon. Have snow chances as far south as I-70 by late
Sunday afternoon with southeast IL seeing light snow too during
Sunday evening before ending overnight Sunday night. Have 1-2
inches of snow ne of a Canton to Lincoln to Paris line Sunday and
Sunday evening with locally higher amounts 2-3 inches in far ne
CWA over Marshall and northeast Vermilion counties. A winter
weather advisory may eventually be needed in ne counties but will
issue SPS for now due to models shifting track of low pressure
past few runs. Highs Sunday range from mid 30s northern counties
to 40-45F from Springfield to Terre Haute south with mid 40s near
Lawrenceville. Temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday
afternoon.
Another clipper system diving se across the western Great Lakes
Monday and Monday night to bring a chance of light snow showers to
northern/ne counties with best chances of accumulating light snow
appears to be ne of central IL. Highs Monday range from low to mid
30s from I-74 ne to the upper 30s to around 40F in sw counties. Dry
conditions expected Tue/Wed as high pressure settles into the upper
MS river valley Tue and into the Ohio river valley Wed. Highs in the
mid 30s to near 40F on Tue and climbing into the upper 30s to mid
40s Wed, with upper 40s from Jacksonville sw.
Surface low pressure system tracks into the Midwest and southern
Great Lakes region Wed night and Thu bringing a 20-30% chance of
light rain/snow. Models have trended quicker with this feature.
Above normal highs Thursday in the low to mid 40s with upper 40s in
southeast IL. Temps then cool behind this feature with highs in the
30s Friday and even colder temperatures expected next weekend with
another chance of light snow next Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
Some minor adjustments. Mid clouds and southwesterly flow ahead of
an approaching boundary. Boundary and llvl moisture starting to
spread low clouds north of the ILX terminals...but expected to
develop along PIA/BMI/CMI line by morning. BKN MVFR in the
morning...anticipated to move through and out of the region later
in the day, accompanied by a more nwrly wind. May see the forecast
improve a little quicker, but for now...keeping the MVFR cigs in
there in the north. More optimistic across SPI and DEC and
scattering the 2kft deck in the morning and dominating with cirrus
per HRRR and Bufkit soundings.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
238 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
305 PM...NO CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO ERODE FROM THE NORTH AND THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE BACK EDGE PUSHES EAST.
HOWEVER...AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
THOUGH A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY CAN/T BE COMPLETED RULED OUT...BUT NO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. CLOUD COVER HELPED HOLD HIGHS TODAY IN
THE LOWER/MID 30S AND WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES...EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT TO DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S...THOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH APPROACHING MID CLOUDS AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL BE SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. IF THIS CLOUD COVER DOES BECOME
OVERCAST...HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED SOME AS
WELL...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
305 PM...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MODERATE/MILD TEMPS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE 12Z GFS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE REST OF THE MODELS...WHICH TRACK THE LOW
FROM ROUGHLY MLI TO IND SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW...BUT INITIALLY COULD BE SOME RAIN
MIXED IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. IN ADDITION...SNOW/WATER RATIOS
COULD BE RATHER LOW TO START...YIELDING A WETTER SNOW. BUT AS THE
LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST...COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE SNOW LIKELY BECOMING DRIER BY LATE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAKES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT TRICKY...
ESPECIALLY IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW ENDS UP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
AS THE GFS SUGGESTS...COLDER AIR WOULD ARRIVE SOONER. POSSIBLE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ALSO ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...DIDN/T MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF A SQI/IKK
LINE...1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF THAT LINE. BUT AS IS ALWAYS THE
CASE...MINOR CHANGES IN THE TRACK COULD CAUSE LARGE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS TRENDS EMERGE.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL BY MID/LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTH. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND
DEPENDING ON HOW DRY THE SNOW BECOMES...THERE COULD BE SOME
BLOWING SNOW BUT AGAIN...ITS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS OR HOW MUCH
OF A PROBLEM THIS COULD BECOME.
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHERLY WINDS MAY ALLOW SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND
THEN INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE RATHER
LOW...PERHAPS NO HIGHER THAN 4KFT AND WINDS BEGIN TO TURN BACK
EASTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING. THUS ANY LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL LOOKS
MINIMAL.
ANOTHER CLIPPER QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
EVENING AND SOME AREAS MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO DEPENDING ON WHERE
IT TRACKS. HAVE INCLUDED JUST LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
FLOW TURNS BACK SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS MODIFY BACK INTO THE 30S
THOUGH WITH AN EXPECTED SNOW PACK BY THEN...LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW
WARM TEMPS WILL BECOME. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CEILINGS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 08Z AND
LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
* WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KTS TODAY...DIMINISHING AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY AND BECOMING
GUSTY TOWARD MORNING.
* SNOW DEVELOPING TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SNOW JUST BEYOND END OF ORD 30 OUR TAF PERIOD.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH A WEAKER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING SOUTHWEST
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST...AS WELL
AS AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE 07-09Z TIME FRAME PER EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOME
LARGE BREAKS IN THE STRATUS BACK ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
SUGGEST IT MAY TEND TO ALLOW SOME BREAKS TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST IN THE LOWEST
FEW THOUSAND FEET NEAR THE GROUND.
OF GREATER CONFIDENCE IS THE APPROACH OF A DIGGING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHWEST OF TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SATURATING THE
COLUMN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 12Z. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
SNOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER...JUST BEYOND END OF CURRENT TAF PERIODS.
IN ADDITION...DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND
INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY GUSTING 25-30 KT BY MID-
MORNING SUNDAY.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS...THOUGH MEDIUM-LOW IN DIRECTION SATURDAY
EVENING AS SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST OCCURS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN TIMING OF MVFR DECK EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW IN
DISSIPATION TIMING LATER TODAY.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN TIMING SNOW TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...SNOW. IFR LIKELY PERIODIC LIFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SN. MVFR PROBABLE W/CHANCE OF IFR.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. MAINLY DRY.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
238 AM CST
MAIN MARINE CONCERNS FOCUS ON THE PERIOD FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...AS NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FAST-MOVING DEEPENING ALBERTA-CLIPPER LOW
WHICH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHERN INDIANA DURING THE DAY.
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM THIS MORNING...LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING EAST OF
JAMES BAY ACROSS QUEBEC...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND WEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TODAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NORTH AND INCREASING BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST QUEBEC. BY
TONIGHT...THE FAST-MOVING CLIPPER WILL ALSO ALREADY BE ENTERING
IOWA AND MOVING INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE
DEEPENING A BIT. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL ALSO
HELP TO TURN WINDS NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THEM ALL THE WAY TO THE
SOUTH END OF THE LAKE AS THE LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A PERIOD OF
SOLID 30 KT NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH 2/3 OR 3/4 OF THE LAKE
SUNDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 30 KTS (MARGINAL GALE FORCE) DURING
THE DAY. WITH THE LOW MOVING QUICKLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS QUICKLY AS THEY INCREASED EARLY IN
THE DAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE IL/NW IND NEARSHORE
WATERS FROM ABOUT 6 AM CST SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
THE STRONG WINDS AND RESULTING WAVES.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO APPEAR RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY
NIGHT QUICKLY BEING DISPLACED MONDAY BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS
WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING INTO THE 25 KT RANGE FOR A
TIME MONDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THE LOW THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...FILLING AS A DEEP LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS
THE LAKE TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MOVES INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...6 AM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1149 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
Weak surface ridge and mostly clear skies slowly giving way to
some AC moving across the Midwest from the northwest. Forecast on
track as some warmer air advects into the region. No major updates
to the forecast anticipated other than some small adjustments to
the hourly grids.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
Clearing line from the morning stratocumulus deck was unable to make
any further eastward progress, so the clouds decided to dissolve in
place instead. 2 pm visible satellite imagery showing most areas
west of I-55 now mostly sunny, with the clouds rapidly eroding on
the western flank of what`s left. The clear skies won`t last too
long though, as mid-level cloud deck ahead of the next frontal
boundary is already in southeast Iowa. The boundary itself is still
back across eastern Nebraska through the Minneapolis area, and will
be moving through our forecast area between midnight and sunrise.
However, no precipitation is expected with it. Lows across the
forecast area should fall into the upper 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
By and large, the forecast period will be dominated by a ridge
west/trof east pattern across North America, a pattern that has been
pretty common of late. The fast moving northwest upper-level flow
that has been over the forecast area has had numerous, mainly weak,
impulses embedded within it traveling over or in our vicinity. Most
of these waves lately, and those expected over the next several
days, have been too weak and/or moisture starved to produce much
precipitation locally. This trend should continue to be the case for
most of the days of this forecast. However, a more significant
clipper system still appears on track to impact the area late
Saturday night into Sunday night. This system is our primary
forecast concern today.
A weak upper/surface trof will move across the area later
tonight/early Saturday, but it is only expected to be accompanied by
an increase in cloud cover. This cloud cover is currently evident
upstream from the Great Lakes into the central Plains.
The timing of the main clipper is pretty well agreed upon, and has
been for a few days now, with the primary precipitation risk
occurring late Saturday night/early Sunday Morning into Sunday
afternoon. However, the track of the system continues to exhibit
considerable model spread, as well as run-to-run variability. The
overall model trend had been toward a more northerly track until
about 24 hours ago, but now the trend is back toward the south. The
northern track would have resulted in minimal precipitation risk for
the forecast area, with the bulk of it falling in the form of rain.
The more southern track, most pronounced in the latest run of the
GFS, would support more widespread precipitation locally, with at
least the northern portion of the forecast area in line for some
accumulating snow. Forecast confidence in the details with this
system remains low considering the variability/inconsistency.
However, given the trends of the past 24 hours, have boosted PoPs
into the Likely category for much of the forecast area on Sunday,
and added some light snow accumulation across the north. If the
models lock into a more southern solution, one that takes the
clipper just south of the forecast area like the current GFS,
temperatures will need to be lowered, PoPs raised, and snow amounts
boosted. For now, will be conservative with the changes until the
ultimate outcome is a little more clear.
For the remainder of the period, mostly quiet weather is expected. A
weak wave is most likely to impact the area Monday and again by
Thursday. However, these disturbances appear too weak to carry
mentionable precipitation at this time. Temperatures through the end
of the next work week should be at or above normal. The coolest
readings are likely Monday/Tuesday behind the main clipper, and
again Friday behind Thursday`s disturbance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
Some minor adjustments. Mid clouds and southwesterly flow ahead of
an approaching boundary. Boundary and llvl moisture starting to
spread low clouds north of the ILX terminals...but expected to
develop along PIA/BMI/CMI line by morning. BKN MVFR in the
morning...anticipated to move through and out of the region later
in the day, accompanied by a more nwrly wind. May see the forecast
improve a little quicker, but for now...keeping the MVFR cigs in
there in the north. More optimistic across SPI and DEC and
scattering the 2kft deck in the morning and dominating with cirrus
per HRRR and Bufkit soundings.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1145 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON MAX TEMPS AND PRECIP
CHANCES ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS IN THE SREF/ECMWF/RUC FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY. DECENT MIXING WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +4C TO
+6C...PER BUFR SOUNDINGS...OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
TWEAKED UP MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THIS LOCATION...AS WELL AS
OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS AREA IS A LITTLE TRICKIER WITH MODELS
HOLDING ONTO SOME LOW STRATUS THAT IS FURTHER EAST THAN WHAT THEY
ARE DEPICTING AND THUS HAVE COOLER TEMPS FORECAST. THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION AND LEANED CLOSER TO THIS
SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHEAST AND BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES.
THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER BRINGING IN PRECIP FROM CLIPPER SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO NAM/ECMWF/SREF. FRM SOUNDINGS LOOK TO
BECOME COMPLETELY SATURATED B/T 23-02Z TODAY AND MCW NOT UNTIL
AFTER 00Z. HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST AFTER
22Z PER HRRR AND HOPWRF TIMING...AS WELL AS THE 4.0KM SPC WRF.
HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH QPF...IF ANY AT ALL BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
A NUMBER OF CHANGES WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE EXTENDED...FROM FAST
MOVING CLIPPERS TO A WARM UP FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. TONIGHTS CLIPPER QUICKLY MOVING INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH TRACK OF SYSTEM. NAM/GFS STILL FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK WHILE
00Z EURO NOW FARTHER SOUTH WITH TRACK AND SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR
COMING INTO THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THE TIMING ALSO VARIES BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THE EURO ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS SLOWER IN FULL ARRIVAL
WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE. HAVE LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE EURO DUE TO
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN PACKAGES AND PREVIOUS PREFERENCE OF DAY SHIFT.
MOISTURE CONCERNS ALSO COMING INTO PLAY. NAM/GFS BOTH HIGHER ON
QPF...NEARING .30 WHILE THE EURO IS ABOUT HALF AT .10 TO .15
INCHES. SNOWFALL RATIOS ARE GENERALLY GOING TO BE AROUND 12 TO 14
FOR THE SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND...SO SNOWFALL
TOTALS NOT TOO HIGH BUT STILL SOME CONCERNS ABOUT AMOUNTS. SECOND
CONCERN WILL BE THAT WE WILL HAVE A WARM DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS
WITH BEGIN WITH EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR A MIX NORTH CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE SYSTEM. THE 4KM WRF IS
SIMILAR IN TIMING TO THE EURO... BETWEEN 00 AND 02Z FOR A START
TIME ACROSS THE WEST. SOUNDINGS AND H850 TEMPS INDICATE THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE NORTH FIRST AND
THEN SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOOKING FOR A RANGE OF LESS THAN 1 INCH CENTRAL
AND SOUTH...SOME OF WHICH WILL MELT WHILE ACROSS THE NORTH
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH A FEW SPOTS NEARING 2.5 INCHES NORTH.
FOLLOWING THE LOW...WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT
LIKELY TO POSE ANY REAL PROBLEMS WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE. WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY LATE
DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY
ALOFT. BY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL TRACK FARTHER
NORTHEAST OF IOWA AND KEEP THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL
WARM TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WEST WHILE THE EAST WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S. MILD WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS MN WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF H850 TEMPERATURES
IN THE 6 TO 8C RANGE BY AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED HIGHS TO THE UPPER
40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S WEST. IF THE EURO IS MOST CORRECT...UPPER
50S MAY AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND POSSIBLY THE CENTRAL. WILL
MONITOR FOR CONTINUED TRENDS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. ONCE THE SYSTEM
PASSES EAST COLDER AIR RETURNS IN TWO PARTS...THURSDAY TEMPS FALL
ABOUT 15 DEGREES AND LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE TO ROUND OFF THE MONTH. LITTLE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z THEN CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING. CIGS WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD VFR
TO LOW END MVFR THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW OVERNIGHT AND WILL LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS EVENING THEN
BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY EARLY SUNDAY. PENDING HOW
MUCH SNOW FALLS OVERNIGHT...BLOWING SNOW MAY RESTRICT VSBYS AFT
12Z.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...DONAVON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
549 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON MAX TEMPS AND PRECIP
CHANCES ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS IN THE SREF/ECMWF/RUC FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY. DECENT MIXING WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +4C TO
+6C...PER BUFR SOUNDINGS...OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
TWEAKED UP MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THIS LOCATION...AS WELL AS
OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS AREA IS A LITTLE TRICKIER WITH MODELS
HOLDING ONTO SOME LOW STRATUS THAT IS FURTHER EAST THAN WHAT THEY
ARE DEPICTING AND THUS HAVE COOLER TEMPS FORECAST. THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION AND LEANED CLOSER TO THIS
SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHEAST AND BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES.
THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER BRINGING IN PRECIP FROM CLIPPER SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO NAM/ECMWF/SREF. FRM SOUNDINGS LOOK TO
BECOME COMPLETELY SATURATED B/T 23-02Z TODAY AND MCW NOT UNTIL
AFTER 00Z. HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST AFTER
22Z PER HRRR AND HOPWRF TIMING...AS WELL AS THE 4.0KM SPC WRF.
HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH QPF...IF ANY AT ALL BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
A NUMBER OF CHANGES WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE EXTENDED...FROM FAST
MOVING CLIPPERS TO A WARM UP FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. TONIGHTS CLIPPER QUICKLY MOVING INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH TRACK OF SYSTEM. NAM/GFS STILL FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK WHILE
00Z EURO NOW FARTHER SOUTH WITH TRACK AND SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR
COMING INTO THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THE TIMING ALSO VARIES BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THE EURO ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS SLOWER IN FULL ARRIVAL
WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE. HAVE LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE EURO DUE TO
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN PACKAGES AND PREVIOUS PREFERENCE OF DAY SHIFT.
MOISTURE CONCERNS ALSO COMING INTO PLAY. NAM/GFS BOTH HIGHER ON
QPF...NEARING .30 WHILE THE EURO IS ABOUT HALF AT .10 TO .15
INCHES. SNOWFALL RATIOS ARE GENERALLY GOING TO BE AROUND 12 TO 14
FOR THE SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND...SO SNOWFALL
TOTALS NOT TOO HIGH BUT STILL SOME CONCERNS ABOUT AMOUNTS. SECOND
CONCERN WILL BE THAT WE WILL HAVE A WARM DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS
WITH BEGIN WITH EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR A MIX NORTH CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE SYSTEM. THE 4KM WRF IS
SIMILAR IN TIMING TO THE EURO... BETWEEN 00 AND 02Z FOR A START
TIME ACROSS THE WEST. SOUNDINGS AND H850 TEMPS INDICATE THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE NORTH FIRST AND
THEN SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOOKING FOR A RANGE OF LESS THAN 1 INCH CENTRAL
AND SOUTH...SOME OF WHICH WILL MELT WHILE ACROSS THE NORTH
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH A FEW SPOTS NEARING 2.5 INCHES NORTH.
FOLLOWING THE LOW...WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT
LIKELY TO POSE ANY REAL PROBLEMS WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE. WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY LATE
DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY
ALOFT. BY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL TRACK FARTHER
NORTHEAST OF IOWA AND KEEP THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL
WARM TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WEST WHILE THE EAST WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S. MILD WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS MN WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF H850 TEMPERATURES
IN THE 6 TO 8C RANGE BY AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED HIGHS TO THE UPPER
40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S WEST. IF THE EURO IS MOST CORRECT...UPPER
50S MAY AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND POSSIBLY THE CENTRAL. WILL
MONITOR FOR CONTINUED TRENDS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. ONCE THE SYSTEM
PASSES EAST COLDER AIR RETURNS IN TWO PARTS...THURSDAY TEMPS FALL
ABOUT 15 DEGREES AND LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE TO ROUND OFF THE MONTH. LITTLE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...24/12Z
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING IN
SOME MVFR CIGS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP AND MVFR
VIS ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOUNDINGS TAKE SOME TIME TO COMPLETELY
SATURATE. CONFIDENT ALO/FOD/MCW WILL SEE -SN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AND HAVE MVFR CIGS/VIS MENTIONED AND POSSIBLY COULD SEE
IFR VIS/CIGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
301 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
An upper level trough located across the northern plains this
afternoon will dig southeast into the mid MS river valley by Sunday
Afternoon.
The stronger ascent ahead of this upper level trough will remain
across the northern plains into the Midwest and OH river valley. The
mesoscale models show another area of stronger ascent developing
within the left exit region, ahead of an 80 KT H5 jet max, which
will dig from eastern MT this afternoon, southeast across western
KS, into northeast OK through the night. Both the Advanced Research
and Non-hydrostatic WRF model solutions show an area of light rain
developing across west central KS this evening in the region of the
left exit region of the H5 jet. ATTM, the area of light rain will
move southeast ahead of the H5 jet max and spread southeast across
south central KS into northeast OK through the night. The 12Z GFS
model is the only solution showing the area of steadier light rain
moving across the southern half of the CWA this evening. I will be
leaning more towards the ARW, NMM and HRRR solutions.
Most of the CWA will only see occasional sprinkles or very light
rain showers through the night into the morning hours of Sunday as
the H5 trough axis moves southeast. Forecast soundings continue to
show a drier layer air within the lowest 6,000 feet of the
atmosphere. Overnight lows will be mild with westerly winds of 10 to
20 MPH. Most areas should see overnight lows only dropping into the
upper 30s.
Sunday, as the upper trough amplifies across northern MO, wrap
around rain showers are possible across the northeast and east
central KS. These showers look to be light with only a trace
to 0.01 inch of QPF forecasted. A surface/925mb low will deepen
across northern MO through the day. Northwest winds will increase
through the mid morning hours to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 40
MPH. The southern counties of the CWA may flirt with wind advisory
criteria during the late morning and early afternoon hours. The
low-level CAA will only allow high temperatures to reach the lower
to mid 40s across the eastern half of the CWA, where clouds may
continue through most of the day. The western counties may see some
afternoon insolation which may help highs to reach into the mid to
upper 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
Sunday Night through Monday Night ...
By Sunday night, the vertically-stacked surface low and mid-level
low will be situated over the Ohio River Valley with
north-northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the central U.S. A
narrow ridge of surface high pressure will spill southward into the
forecast area Sunday night into Monday resulting in mostly clear
skies and light winds. As a result, decent radiational cooling will
help drop overnight low temperatures into the mid/upper 20s.
Models show the next surface low positioned over the far northern U.S.
and tracking toward the Great Lakes region through Monday night. An
associated cold front will extend southward across the Northern and
Central Plains Monday morning and is expected to skim southeastward
across the forecast area from late morning through the afternoon
hours. Since this front looks to barely extend far enough south into
the area, there should not be a strong wind shift associated with
this frontal passage. As a result, models show winds gradually
veering from southwest to west-northwest through the day. Soundings
are very dry so don`t even expect much in the way of cloud cover
with this frontal passage. With a thermal ridge in place just west
of the forecast area and decent downslope winds expected, should see
another mild day with high temperatures reaching into the upper 50s
east to middle 60s west. An area of surface high pressure will
advance into the Northern and Central Plains behind the front, with
mostly clear skies and light northwesterly winds resulting in low
temperatures dropping into the low 30s by Tuesday morning.
Tuesday through Saturday Night...
A pattern of benign weather is expected Tuesday through Friday as a
dry forecast remains in place. A wave will push through the area on
Wednesday evening; however, any precipitation associated with this
energy will be to the north of the area. The next mention of
precipitation is Saturday, associated with a shortwave amplifying in
the Rocky Mountains. Two completely different solutions are seen by
the models with the ECMWF proposing energy with this system will
stay well south keeping the area completely dry, while the GFS
solution continues to amplify this wave allowing for a moderate
amount of precipitation. Due to such a robust solution with the
GFS, have put in 20 percent chances for PoPs over the entire area
Saturday, with a chance for both rain and snow. As of right now,
confidence of how this system will play out is low and should
continue to be monitored.
As for temperatures, Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to be above
normal with highs topping out in the upper 50s/lower 60s. A weak
cold front associated with the system on Wednesday will lower
temperatures slightly Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid 40s
and lows below freezing. Saturday will be even cooler as winds
shift from the north bringing highs back to climatological normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southwest winds will
increase to 11 to 15 KTS with some gusts this afternoon. The wind gusts
will diminish after sunset. Northwest winds will increase to 14 to
17 KTS with gusts of 22 to 26 KTS after 12Z SUN. An upper level
disturbance will bring a chance for sprinkles or very light
showers across the terminals this evening.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller/Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1111 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUING
TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
STATES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN
FOR WESTERN KANSAS WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE SKIES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASED ON COMPARISON OF MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND ACTUAL RECORDED DAYTIME HIGHS, THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE TENDED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS IN THESE
DOWNSLOPE REGIMES. FOR TODAY WE HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ARE ALSO SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THIS RANGE.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER RANGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
FEBRUARY 3RD AND BEYOND WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR WESTERN KANSAS,
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND PROGRESS FROM WEST
OF BAJA ON JAN 28TH TO NEAR BAJA ON JAN 31ST AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FEB 2ND, BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IN WESTERN KANSAS.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY (HIGHS MAINLY 50S) AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW (NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY)
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL COOL THE
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
FALLING FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S OR 40S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
12-20 KT TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE 15-25 KT TOMORROW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 36 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 61 34 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 58 31 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 61 31 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 64 38 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
P28 64 36 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUING
TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
STATES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN
FOR WESTERN KANSAS WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE SKIES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASED ON COMPARISON OF MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND ACTUAL RECORDED DAYTIME HIGHS, THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE TENDED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS IN THESE
DOWNSLOPE REGIMES. FOR TODAY WE HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ARE ALSO SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THIS RANGE.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER RANGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
FEBRUARY 3RD AND BEYOND WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR WESTERN KANSAS,
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND PROGRESS FROM WEST
OF BAJA ON JAN 28TH TO NEAR BAJA ON JAN 31ST AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FEB 2ND, BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IN WESTERN KANSAS.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY (HIGHS MAINLY 50S) AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW (NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY)
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL COOL THE
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
FALLING FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S OR 40S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 36 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 61 34 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 58 31 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 61 31 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 64 38 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
P28 64 36 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUING
TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
STATES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN
FOR WESTERN KANSAS WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE SKIES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASED ON COMPARISON OF MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND ACTUAL RECORDED DAYTIME HIGHS, THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE TENDED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS IN THESE
DOWNSLOPE REGIMES. FOR TODAY WE HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ARE ALSO SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THIS RANGE.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER RANGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY, A LACK
OF MOISTURE FROM A PREVAILING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WILL HINDER ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MENTIONED EARLIER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO FILTER DOWN INTO
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 0C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH NEAR 5C ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 50S(F)
UP NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH THE 60S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY HELP WARM UP
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME MONDAY AS A NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNS TO WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT H85 ARE
PROJECTED TO CLIMB UP TO AROUND 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
15C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE,
LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 70F
IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SIMILAR HIGHS ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HELPS INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 36 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 61 34 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 58 31 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 61 31 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 64 38 52 32 / 0 0 0 0
P28 64 36 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
920 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 855 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015
The surface low pressure center now is east of Louisville, with the
airport going over to northerly winds. Those winds will pick up from
the northwest the rest of the night as the gradient tightens up.
Precipitation across our region still is all rain, though just north
of us in IND`s area, seeing some snow reports from a few of the
bordering AWOS`s. HRRR still gives a brief shot at a deformation
band taking a swipe at our counties northeast of Louisville over the
next few hours, but otherwise the precip looks to be rather light,
save for the moderate rain showers along the KY/TN border right now.
Precipitation totals for the day so far are in the 1-2 tenths of an
inch range. This bodes a little better against their being lots of
black ice in the morning, as winds behind the low pressure will act
to dry out the roadways some. However we still have the chance for
freezing drizzle, according to forecast soundings, and this could
create a glaze on its own. Will keep the SPS going and let the mid
shift decide, as road reports are coming in, if an upgrade to a
Traveler`s Advisory is needed before the morning rush hour Monday.
Did another grid update, but forecast still looks on track, so no
need for a zone update.
Issued at 625 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015
Looked through the forecast grids and tweaked toward current
conditions. After leaning towards the high-res consensus models for
the various parameters, ended up coming up with similar numbers for
QPF and snow totals as ongoing forecast. Still more concerned about
the threat for wet roads freezing than snow accumulations,
especially in the area already highlighted by the previous
forecaster. The possible saving grace here will be gusty northwest
winds that may help to dry off some of the roads before they get a
chance to freeze. Will be issuing updates through the evening and
overnight, so stay tuned.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015
...Light wintry precipitation could cause slick spots overnight into
Monday morning...
The surface low associated with a strong PV anomaly is now working
across southern Illinois, and will continue to slide ESE across our
area this evening. Light to occasionally moderate rainfall will
continue late this afternoon and evening ahead of this feature. Most
spots should see around a quarter of an inch of rainfall, with
locaized spots up to a half an inch.
As the system departs to our east tonight, a sharp cold front will
slide NW to SE across our area with rapidly dropping temperatures
into the mid 20s. Enough low level moisture looks to linger during
this time to support a change over to light snow. Can`t rule out
some freezing drizzle as well as saturation only goes up to around
-7 or -8 C, bringing the availability of ice crystals into question.
Either way, the combination of wet roads (from recent heavier
rainfall), and potential for a light snow dusting, or a very thin
glaze of ice could lead to some travel problems ahead of and into
the morning commute. Confidence isn`t overly high in widespread
travel problems, but enough that special mention should be given.
Issued a Special Weather Statement to highlight concerns. If
confidence does become higher, then can`t rule out an upgraded
product with future updates. Overall, kept light snow as the
predominant p-type as we head toward dawn, with generally a half an
inch or less of snow accumulation. Most likely area to see more
problems with slick roads should be east of I-65 and along and north
of I-64.
Expect lingering light snow/flurries/or freezing drizzle along and
east of I-75 through the first part of Monday. Temperatures will
struggle for much of the day under steady cold advection and only
expect highs in the low and mid 30s. Skies should stay mostly cloudy
to cloudy under lingering low clouds.
As we move into Monday evening/Monday night, we`ll watch as the left
exit region of an upper jet dives sharply south southeastward
overnight. As it does so, 1000-700 mb moisture will pool underneath
and should result in some light precipitation across the area,
mostly in the form of light snow. Best location for this looks to be
along and west of I-65 Monday evening, moving to along and east of
I-65 late Monday night.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015
Several light precipitation chances still remain the long term
period as we remain in an unsettled weather pattern.
Tues small vort waves on the back side of a broad upper trough will
create snow shower chances during the morning hours and then
possibly changing over to a rain/snow mix west of I-65/remaining
snow east of I-65 during the afternoon hours. A light snow
accumulation may result from this snow shower activity on Tuesday.
Flurries will likely last into the evening hours.
The next precip chances will come Wed night into Thurs as a clipper
system moves east across the upper Midwest. At this time, the low
associated with this clipper looks to pass to our north and actually
pull up a decent amount of warm air on Wed night. Precip may start
as a brief wintry mix Wed night and then transition to plain rain as
upper 30s and lower 40s temps get pulled into our area. Southerly
winds and a noticeably warmer airmass will result in rain on Thurs
with high temps reaching the upper 40s to around 50. Precipitation
will likely end Thurs night as light snow or a rain/snow mix.
Temps will run slightly below normal Tues/Wed, then a warm day
expected for Thurs, and back to slightly below normal for the end of
the week.
The weekend forecast is much less certain with models backing off of
any major weather systems to bring us notable precip. Have
scaled back POPs to 20% for Sat night/Sun night with snow or
rain/snow being the p-type.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 625 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015
Low pressure now centered around the Louisville area, with center of
the upper low now over far western Kentucky. Heavier rain showers
are about to move into the BWG terminal, so IFR conditions are
possible there for the next few hours. IFR conditions likely will
overspread all of the terminals are some point overnight, if not
LIFR at times. With cold air filtering in behind gusty northwest
winds late tonight, we should see a transition to light snow at some
point as well, but accumulations do not look significant at this
time. IFR conditions probably will persist through daybreak, and
time-height sections indicate that could continue through the
morning hours, though statistical guidance improves them faster.
Have broken BWG/SDF into VFR by late afternoon Monday, but hold on
at LEX closer to the moisture and departing low.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
900 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
CORRECTED FOR MENTION OF FREEZLE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
...FORECAST UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW IS EAST OF LOUISVILLE, WITH THE
AIRPORT GOING OVER TO NORTHERLY WINDS. THOSE WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM
THE NORTHWEST THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION STILL IS ALL RAIN, THOUGH JUST NORTH
OF US IN IND`S AREA, SEEING SOME SNOW REPORTS FROM A FEW OF THE
BORDERING AWOS`S. HRRR STILL GIVES A BRIEF SHOT AT A DEFORMATION
BAND TAKING A SWIPE AT OUR COUNTIES NORTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT OTHERWISE THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT,
SAVE FOR THE MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER RIGHT NOW.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE DAY SO FAR ARE IN THE 1-2 TENTHS OF AN
INCH RANGE. THIS BODES A LITTLE BETTER AGAINST THEIR BEING LOTS OF
BLACK ICE IN THE MORNING, AS WINDS BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE WILL ACT
TO DRY OUT THE ROADWAYS SOME. HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE, ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS, AND THIS COULD
CREATE A GLAZE ON ITS OWN. WILL KEEP THE SPS GOING AND LET THE
MID SHIFT DECIDE, AS ROAD REPORTS ARE COMING IN, IF AN UPGRADE TO A
TRAVELER`S ADVISORY IS NEEDED BEFORE THE MORNING RUSH HOUR MONDAY.
DID ANOTHER GRID UPDATE, BUT FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK, SO NO
NEED FOR A ZONE UPDATE.
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
LOOKED THROUGH THE FORECAST GRIDS AND TWEAKED TOWARD CURRENT
CONDITIONS. AFTER LEANING TOWARDS THE HIGH-RES CONSENSUS MODELS FOR
THE VARIOUS PARAMETERS, ENDED UP COMING UP WITH SIMILAR NUMBERS FOR
QPF AND SNOW TOTALS AS ONGOING FORECAST. STILL MORE CONCERNED ABOUT
THE THREAT FOR WET ROADS FREEZING THAN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER. THE POSSIBLE SAVING GRACE HERE WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT MAY HELP TO DRY OFF SOME OF THE ROADS BEFORE THEY GET A
CHANCE TO FREEZE. WILL BE ISSUING UPDATES THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, SO STAY TUNED.
.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD CAUSE SLICK SPOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...
THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY IS NOW WORKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ESE ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS EVENING. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MOST
SPOTS SHOULD SEE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL, WITH
LOCAIZED SPOTS UP TO A HALF AN INCH.
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO OUR EAST TONIGHT, A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE NW TO SE ACROSS OUR AREA WITH RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO LINGER DURING
THIS TIME TO SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL AS SATURATION ONLY GOES UP TO AROUND
-7 OR -8 C, BRINGING THE AVAILABILITY OF ICE CRYSTALS INTO QUESTION.
EITHER WAY, THE COMBINATION OF WET ROADS (FROM RECENT HEAVIER
RAINFALL), AND POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW DUSTING, OR A VERY THIN
GLAZE OF ICE COULD LEAD TO SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS AHEAD OF AND INTO
THE MORNING COMMUTE. CONFIDENCE ISN`T OVERLY HIGH IN WIDESPREAD
TRAVEL PROBLEMS, BUT ENOUGH THAT SPECIAL MENTION SHOULD BE GIVEN.
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS. IF
CONFIDENCE DOES BECOME HIGHER, THEN CAN`T RULE OUT AN UPGRADED
PRODUCT WITH FUTURE UPDATES. OVERALL, KEPT LIGHT SNOW AS THE
PREDOMINANT P-TYPE AS WE HEAD TOWARD DAWN, WITH GENERALLY A HALF AN
INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE MORE
PROBLEMS WITH SLICK ROADS SHOULD BE EAST OF I-65 AND ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-64.
EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG AND
EAST OF I-75 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNDER STEADY COLD ADVECTION AND ONLY
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 30S. SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY UNDER LINGERING LOW CLOUDS.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL WATCH AS THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET DIVES SHARPLY SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, 1000-700 MB MOISTURE WILL POOL UNDERNEATH
AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA,
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. BEST LOCATION FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 MONDAY EVENING, MOVING TO ALONG AND EAST OF
I-65 LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
SEVERAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL REMAIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
TUES SMALL VORT WAVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CREATE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN
POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST OF I-65/REMAINING
SNOW EAST OF I-65 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION MAY RESULT FROM THIS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY.
FLURRIES WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME WED NIGHT INTO THURS AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THIS TIME, THE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER LOOKS TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND ACTUALLY
PULL UP A DECENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ON WED NIGHT. PRECIP MAY START
AS A BRIEF WINTRY MIX WED NIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN AS
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S TEMPS GET PULLED INTO OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND A NOTICEABLY WARMER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN RAIN ON THURS
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY END THURS NIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUES/WED, THEN A WARM DAY
EXPECTED FOR THURS, AND BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WITH MODELS BACKING OFF OF
ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS TO BRING US NOTABLE PRECIP. HAVE
SCALED BACK POPS TO 20% FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN NIGHT WITH SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW BEING THE P-TYPE.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED AROUND THE LOUISVILLE AREA, WITH CENTER OF
THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY. HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS
ARE ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE BWG TERMINAL, SO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL OF THE TERMINALS ARE SOME POINT OVERNIGHT, IF NOT
LIFR AT TIMES. WITH COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT, WE SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW AT SOME
POINT AS WELL, BUT ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT AT THIS
TIME. IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK, AND
TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE THAT COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, THOUGH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IMPROVES THEM FASTER.
HAVE BROKEN BWG/SDF INTO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY, BUT HOLD ON
AT LEX CLOSER TO THE MOISTURE AND DEPARTING LOW.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........RJS
SHORT TERM.....BJS
LONG TERM......AMS
AVIATION.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
857 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 855 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015
The surface low pressure center now is east of Louisville, with the
airport going over to northerly winds. Those winds will pick up from
the northwest the rest of the night as the gradient tightens up.
Precipitation across our region still is all rain, though just north
of us in IND`s area, seeing some snow reports from a few of the
bordering AWOS`s. HRRR still gives a brief shot at a deformation
band taking a swipe at our counties northeast of Louisville over the
next few hours, but otherwise the precip looks to be rather light,
save for the moderate rain showers along the KY/TN border right now.
Precipitation totals for the day so far are in the 1-2 tenths of an
inch range. This bodes a little better against their being lots of
black ice in the morning, as winds behind the low pressure will act
to dry out the roadways some. Will keep the SPS going and let the
mid shift decide, as road reports are coming in, if an upgrade to a
Traveler`s Advisory is needed before the morning rush hour Monday.
Did another grid update, but forecast still looks on track, so no
need for a zone update.
Issued at 625 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015
Looked through the forecast grids and tweaked toward current
conditions. After leaning towards the high-res consensus models for
the various parameters, ended up coming up with similar numbers for
QPF and snow totals as ongoing forecast. Still more concerned about
the threat for wet roads freezing than snow accumulations,
especially in the area already highlighted by the previous
forecaster. The possible saving grace here will be gusty northwest
winds that may help to dry off some of the roads before they get a
chance to freeze. Will be issuing updates through the evening and
overnight, so stay tuned.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015
...Light wintry precipitation could cause slick spots overnight into
Monday morning...
The surface low associated with a strong PV anomaly is now working
across southern Illinois, and will continue to slide ESE across our
area this evening. Light to occasionally moderate rainfall will
continue late this afternoon and evening ahead of this feature. Most
spots should see around a quarter of an inch of rainfall, with
locaized spots up to a half an inch.
As the system departs to our east tonight, a sharp cold front will
slide NW to SE across our area with rapidly dropping temperatures
into the mid 20s. Enough low level moisture looks to linger during
this time to support a change over to light snow. Can`t rule out
some freezing drizzle as well as saturation only goes up to around
-7 or -8 C, bringing the availability of ice crystals into question.
Either way, the combination of wet roads (from recent heavier
rainfall), and potential for a light snow dusting, or a very thin
glaze of ice could lead to some travel problems ahead of and into
the morning commute. Confidence isn`t overly high in widespread
travel problems, but enough that special mention should be given.
Issued a Special Weather Statement to highlight concerns. If
confidence does become higher, then can`t rule out an upgraded
product with future updates. Overall, kept light snow as the
predominant p-type as we head toward dawn, with generally a half an
inch or less of snow accumulation. Most likely area to see more
problems with slick roads should be east of I-65 and along and north
of I-64.
Expect lingering light snow/flurries/or freezing drizzle along and
east of I-75 through the first part of Monday. Temperatures will
struggle for much of the day under steady cold advection and only
expect highs in the low and mid 30s. Skies should stay mostly cloudy
to cloudy under lingering low clouds.
As we move into Monday evening/Monday night, we`ll watch as the left
exit region of an upper jet dives sharply south southeastward
overnight. As it does so, 1000-700 mb moisture will pool underneath
and should result in some light precipitation across the area,
mostly in the form of light snow. Best location for this looks to be
along and west of I-65 Monday evening, moving to along and east of
I-65 late Monday night.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015
Several light precipitation chances still remain the long term
period as we remain in an unsettled weather pattern.
Tues small vort waves on the back side of a broad upper trough will
create snow shower chances during the morning hours and then
possibly changing over to a rain/snow mix west of I-65/remaining
snow east of I-65 during the afternoon hours. A light snow
accumulation may result from this snow shower activity on Tuesday.
Flurries will likely last into the evening hours.
The next precip chances will come Wed night into Thurs as a clipper
system moves east across the upper Midwest. At this time, the low
associated with this clipper looks to pass to our north and actually
pull up a decent amount of warm air on Wed night. Precip may start
as a brief wintry mix Wed night and then transition to plain rain as
upper 30s and lower 40s temps get pulled into our area. Southerly
winds and a noticeably warmer airmass will result in rain on Thurs
with high temps reaching the upper 40s to around 50. Precipitation
will likely end Thurs night as light snow or a rain/snow mix.
Temps will run slightly below normal Tues/Wed, then a warm day
expected for Thurs, and back to slightly below normal for the end of
the week.
The weekend forecast is much less certain with models backing off of
any major weather systems to bring us notable precip. Have
scaled back POPs to 20% for Sat night/Sun night with snow or
rain/snow being the p-type.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 625 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015
Low pressure now centered around the Louisville area, with center of
the upper low now over far western Kentucky. Heavier rain showers
are about to move into the BWG terminal, so IFR conditions are
possible there for the next few hours. IFR conditions likely will
overspread all of the terminals are some point overnight, if not
LIFR at times. With cold air filtering in behind gusty northwest
winds late tonight, we should see a transition to light snow at some
point as well, but accumulations do not look significant at this
time. IFR conditions probably will persist through daybreak, and
time-height sections indicate that could continue through the
morning hours, though statistical guidance improves them faster.
Have broken BWG/SDF into VFR by late afternoon Monday, but hold on
at LEX closer to the moisture and departing low.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1153 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
.AVIATION...
SKIES CLR OVR SE TX AND SRN LA THIS EVE... SOUTH CENTRAL LA XPCD
TO CLR OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS. WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS THRU
SUNRISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
MARINE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE COASTALS, CANX SCA NEAR SHORE
WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY, ISSUING CAUTION IN ITS PLACE AS WINDS
DIMINISHING CLOSE IN FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. HOISTED CAUTION FOR
VERMILION BAY TNITE AS UPPER TROF SWEEPS THRU. KEPT SCA IN FORCE
FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY AND ALL OUTER
WATERS TNITE...THEN CAUTION ON SATURDAY TIL NOON.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
UPDATE...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BEING SQUEEZED OUT AHEAD OF
AN H5 TROF AXIS WILL END FOR THE NIGHT FROM THE WEST ON A LINE
FROM ALEXANDRIA TO BEAUMONT. LEFT MINIMAL POPS OUT AHEAD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR BEING USHERED IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE H5 TROF WHICH IS MOVING ALONG TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT A GOOD 25 MPH...ON TRACK TO CLEAR LOWER ACADIANA BY MIDNIGHT.
LATEST RUC CONFIRMS PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS ON TRACK EXCEPT FOR A
TWEAK LOWER FOR THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND SW LOUISIANA. GRIDS
ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE MIXED CONTS TO FALL ACROSS SE TX AND SRN
LA THIS EVE. THE BACK OF THE RAIN SHIELD IS MOVING THRU HARDIN AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. XPC TO SEE SKIES CLRG OVR SE TX TWRDS
03Z AND OVR SRN LA TWRDS 06Z MVFR/IFR ALL SITES BUT TAF LCTNS SHLD
BECMG VFR TWRDS 06Z.
19
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC LOW OVER THE SE U.S. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST OVER OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER E TX AND LA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL BE OUT OF
THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 40S AREAWIDE...AND
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S AFTER SKIES CLEAR FROM W TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THE WINDS CALM DOWN.
PLEASANT BUT COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A PREDOMINATE NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE REGION...AND
A SERIES OF RE-ENFORCING HIGHS BUILD SOUTHEAST. THUS...FOR SUN
THRU THU...EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY FRI...INCREASING MOISTURE WITH AN
APPROACHING TROF AND FRONT MAY YIELD A CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT.
DML
MARINE...
NNW TO N WINDS 20-25 KTS & SEAS 3-7 FT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE EXITING OF THE SFC LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
THUS SCA CONTINUES FOR 0-60NM COASTAL ZONES THRU 06Z...AND THRU
12Z SAT FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES. SCEC FOR AREA LAKES/BAYS. PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY
MORNING...BECOMING WESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE GULF WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 36 58 41 65 45 / 20 10 0 0 0
KBPT 35 60 41 65 44 / 10 10 0 0 0
KAEX 34 57 38 64 42 / 20 10 0 0 0
KLFT 36 58 40 64 43 / 20 10 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CST SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS
FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO
60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1251 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND EXIT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
QUICKLY DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND COULD END UP MOVING
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230PM UPDATE... DUAL POL RADAR AND REPORTS INDICATE SOME SLEET
MIXING IN IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN NH. WHILE THE BACK END OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING INTO WESTERN NH, THE LOW ITSELF CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN AND TRACK TOWARDS THE BENCHMARK. IN MAINE HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDATED TEMPS AND ADDED SLEET TO SE NH. HAVE INCREASED
SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY FOR THE MIDCOAST WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS MOST
LIKELY.
9AM UPDATE... SNOW HAS JUST
MOVED INTO GRAY AND FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATED TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS, WHICH ARE RUNNING A BIT COLDER. HAVE NOT CHANGED SNOW
TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SNOW RATIO AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN THE STICKING POINT FOR
THE FORECAST.
7 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RELATIVELY
MINOR CHANGES IN POP...QPF...AND SNOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SNOW HAS REACHED SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NO CHANGES IN WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUSLY...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF OF THE DELAWARE COAST AS OF 4 AM. A
PRETTY EXPANSIVE SNOW SHIELD IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS CONNECTICUT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
AND LIKELY ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE IF NOT AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD.
OVERALL...WE HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS. ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EASTWARD A BIT...AND
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SLIGHT CHANGE. ONE THING IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN...AND THAT IS THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. ONE TOWN MAY
HAVE 5 OR 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER TOWN 10 MILES TO THE WEST
MAY END UP WITH NEXT TO NOTHING. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS BY INCORPORATING THE LATEST HRRR POPS FOR THE
FIRST 12-15 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS BACK EDGE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. TODAY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE A CASE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT OUR MOUNTAINS ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY OR
MOSTLY DRY.
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEASTERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE SNOW-FREE AFTER 00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB +PNA PATTERN WILL DISAPPEAR AS
THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND BOTH UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT AND
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER ERN NO AMERICA AND ALLOW COLD CORE OF
AIR TO DROP EQUATORWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF WEEK. SO...COLD TO START THE EXTENDED...MAYBE A LITTLE WARM UP
TO AROUND NORMAL LATE WEEK...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN COLDER NEXT
WEEKEND.
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BE COLD WITH ENOUGH WIND SUNDAY EVE TO PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR -20 IN THE N...AND BLO ZERO EVERYWHERE
ELSE...BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL COLD
AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE N...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 10-20 F
RANGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS 500 MB TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINA COAST....DEPENDING ON
WHETHER YOU FOLLOW THE EURO OR GFS. THE EURO IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW AND INTENSIFYING THE
SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ENOUGH TO SPREAD
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE CWA. THE GFS KEEPS THE SFC FLOW
FURTHER E AND INTENSIFIES LATER...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS SNOW AND
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE IN THE ERN ZONES.
GIVEN THE SOLID PERFORMANCE OF THE EURO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION
AND HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA ON TUE. STILL IT LOOKS
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...SO ANY SNOW WILL
HAVE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIO.
SHOULD SEE NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND HIGHS ON WED LIMITED TO THE TEENS TO AROUND
20 AGAIN. AS THAT INTENSE LOW HEADS NE THROUGH THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR THUS...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER
NH/ME...AND A BIT OF WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES AND BRINGS THE COLD BACK BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE BECOMING IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW BY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE. POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW LATE MON INTO TUE EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR BY WED...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST WATERS AS COASTAL STORM
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SCA LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS A GOOD BET SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SCA POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
GALES TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND
E.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
MEZ018>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ008-009-011-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1203 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY TODAY
AND THEN ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UPDATE...CHALLENGING FORECAST AS SNOW IS NOW MOVING INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT IS STARTING TO SHOW
ITSELF, WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
MAINE COAST. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH NORTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY REACHING INTO DOWNEAST MAINE. HAVE
TIGHTENED UP THE POPS A BIT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO MADE TWEAKS
TO TEMPERATURE`S TO MATCH CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THESE WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MARGINAL...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
IMPACT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING STORM TO AFFECT THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AND THERE
APPEARS TO BE A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT W/NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE
GETTING SHUT OUT ON THIS EVENT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRUCIAL NOT ONLY TO QPF AND SNOWFALL BUT ALSO TO THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE.
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP MATCHED UP WELL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS W/TAKING THE SFC LOW FROM THE CAROLINAS
TODAY TO THE NOVA SCOTIA REGION. LATEST PRECIP ANALYSIS AT 06Z
SHOWED THAT TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER THE DELMARVA.
THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLL IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY AS ONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS DECENT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM 1000-700MBS THAT SETS UP ACROSS
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIP/SNOWFALL RATES. BLYR TEMPS WILL
BE CRUCIAL ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY. DECIDED
TO USE CONSENSUS APCH W/THIS EVENT AND BRING A NOSE OF WARMER IN
THE LLVLS OVER THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST. THIS TRANSLATES TO MID
30S AT THE SURFACE ALLOWING SNOW TO GO TO RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN FOR A
PERIOD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO FALL BACK AFTER ABOUT 8 PM WITH PRECIP GOING BACK TO SNOW
W/SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. BACK TO THE W AND N, BLYR TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. ALL WINTER HEADLINES REMAIN IN
PLACE AS IS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY
AS THE HEAVY BOUT OF PRECIP THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION W/THE
COOLING TEMPS COULD ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO CLOSE IN NEAR 7
INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITING AND EASTPORT AREAS.
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN AND END LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL ADD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW W/OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
SHOULD DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH AND MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWN EAST BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL TO ABOUT 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE NORTH AND 10 TO 15 CENTRAL
AND DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD WITH SUB
ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER FOR TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
WARRANTED BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH DOWN EAST AND COASTAL AREAS ONCE AGAIN
APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
ANY SNOW WILL WIND DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS AND VFR FOR BGR AND BHB. THIS WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM KHUL DOWN TO KBHB W/SOME SNOW AND
CONDITIONS GOING TO MVFR AND IFR. LIFR IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
FOR KBGR AND KBHB IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND SOME TURBULENCE.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT BY MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SNOW LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB
TERMINALS. VFR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS/SEAS ARE STARTING TO COME UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
PER 07Z OBS. WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO
HIT 40S OUT OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 7 TO 11 FT BY LATER TONIGHT.
SOME MINOR OVERWASH ALONG HANCOCK COUNTY NEAR SEAWALL ROAD AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY IS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
NEAR SHORE MODEL INDICATED THAT ANY OVERWASH WOULD BE MINOR. THE
DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO SUNDAY WITH
WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
MONDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE GALES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-
029-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ005-006-
030-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
943 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND EXIT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
QUICKLY DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND COULD END UP MOVING
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9AM UPDATE... SNOW HAS JUST MOVED INTO GRAY AND FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK. UPDATED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS, WHICH ARE RUNNING A BIT
COLDER. HAVE NOT CHANGED SNOW TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SNOW RATIO
AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
REMAIN THE STICKING POINT FOR THE FORECAST.
7 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RELATIVELY
MINOR CHANGES IN POP...QPF...AND SNOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SNOW HAS REACHED SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NO CHANGES IN WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUSLY...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF OF THE DELAWARE COAST AS OF 4 AM. A
PRETTY EXPANSIVE SNOW SHIELD IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS CONNECTICUT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
AND LIKELY ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE IF NOT AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD.
OVERALL...WE HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS. ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EASTWARD A BIT...AND
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SLIGHT CHANGE. ONE THING IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN...AND THAT IS THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. ONE TOWN MAY
HAVE 5 OR 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER TOWN 10 MILES TO THE WEST
MAY END UP WITH NEXT TO NOTHING. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS BY INCORPORATING THE LATEST HRRR POPS FOR THE
FIRST 12-15 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS BACK EDGE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. TODAY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE A CASE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT OUR MOUNTAINS ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY OR
MOSTLY DRY.
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEASTERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE SNOW-FREE AFTER 00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB +PNA PATTERN WILL DISAPPEAR AS
THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND BOTH UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT AND
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER ERN NO AMERICA AND ALLOW COLD CORE OF
AIR TO DROP EQUATORWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF WEEK. SO...COLD TO START THE EXTENDED...MAYBE A LITTLE WARM UP
TO AROUND NORMAL LATE WEEK...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN COLDER NEXT
WEEKEND.
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BE COLD WITH ENOUGH WIND SUNDAY EVE TO PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR -20 IN THE N...AND BLO ZERO EVERYWHERE
ELSE...BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL COLD
AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE N...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 10-20 F
RANGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS 500 MB TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINA COAST....DEPENDING ON
WHETHER YOU FOLLOW THE EURO OR GFS. THE EURO IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW AND INTENSIFYING THE
SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ENOUGH TO SPREAD
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE CWA. THE GFS KEEPS THE SFC FLOW
FURTHER E AND INTENSIFIES LATER...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS SNOW AND
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE IN THE ERN ZONES.
GIVEN THE SOLID PERFORMANCE OF THE EURO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION
AND HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA ON TUE. STILL IT LOOKS
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...SO ANY SNOW WILL
HAVE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIO.
SHOULD SEE NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND HIGHS ON WED LIMITED TO THE TEENS TO AROUND
20 AGAIN. AS THAT INTENSE LOW HEADS NE THROUGH THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR THUS...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER
NH/ME...AND A BIT OF WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES AND BRINGS THE COLD BACK BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE BECOMING IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW BY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE. POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW LATE MON INTO TUE EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR BY WED...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST WATERS AS COASTAL STORM
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SCA LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS A GOOD BET SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SCA POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
GALES TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND
E.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
MEZ018>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ008-009-011-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
933 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY TODAY
AND THEN ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD
INTO OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM. THE
NORTHERN SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE
THE SOUTHERN SNOW WILL INTENSIFY. FOR THE MOST PART, THE FORECAST
HAS THIS COVERED. HAVE EXTENDED THE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
BY A FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING SNOW AND ALSO INCREASED
SNOW AMOUNTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING STORM TO AFFECT THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AND THERE
APPEARS TO BE A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT W/NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE
GETTING SHUT OUT ON THIS EVENT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRUCIAL NOT ONLY TO QPF AND SNOWFALL BUT ALSO TO THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE.
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP MATCHED UP WELL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS W/TAKING THE SFC LOW FROM THE CAROLINAS
TODAY TO THE NOVA SCOTIA REGION. LATEST PRECIP ANALYSIS AT 06Z
SHOWED THAT TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER THE DELMARVA.
THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLL IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY AS ONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS DECENT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM 1000-700MBS THAT SETS UP ACROSS
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIP/SNOWFALL RATES. BLYR TEMPS WILL
BE CRUCIAL ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY. DECIDED
TO USE CONSENSUS APCH W/THIS EVENT AND BRING A NOSE OF WARMER IN
THE LLVLS OVER THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST. THIS TRANSLATES TO MID
30S AT THE SURFACE ALLOWING SNOW TO GO TO RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN FOR A
PERIOD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO FALL BACK AFTER ABOUT 8 PM WITH PRECIP GOING BACK TO SNOW
W/SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. BACK TO THE W AND N, BLYR TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. ALL WINTER HEADLINES REMAIN IN
PLACE AS IS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY
AS THE HEAVY BOUT OF PRECIP THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION W/THE
COOLING TEMPS COULD ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO CLOSE IN NEAR 7
INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITING AND EASTPORT AREAS.
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN AND END LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL ADD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW W/OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
SHOULD DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH AND MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWN EAST BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL TO ABOUT 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE NORTH AND 10 TO 15 CENTRAL
AND DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD WITH SUB
ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER FOR TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
WARRANTED BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH DOWN EAST AND COASTAL AREAS ONCE AGAIN
APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
ANY SNOW WILL WIND DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS AND VFR FOR BGR AND BHB. THIS WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM KHUL DOWN TO KBHB W/SOME SNOW AND
CONDITIONS GOING TO MVFR AND IFR. LIFR IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
FOR KBGR AND KBHB IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND SOME TURBULENCE.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT BY MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SNOW LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB
TERMINALS. VFR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS/SEAS ARE STARTING TO COME UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
PER 07Z OBS. WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO
HIT 40S OUT OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 7 TO 11 FT BY LATER TONIGHT.
SOME MINOR OVERWASH ALONG HANCOCK COUNTY NEAR SEAWALL ROAD AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY IS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
NEAR SHORE MODEL INDICATED THAT ANY OVERWASH WOULD BE MINOR. THE
DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO SUNDAY WITH
WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
MONDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE GALES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-
029-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ005-006-
030-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
708 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND EXIT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
QUICKLY DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND COULD END UP MOVING
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RELATIVELY
MINOR CHANGES IN POP...QPF...AND SNOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SNOW HAS REACHED SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NO CHANGES IN WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUSLY...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF OF THE DELAWARE COAST AS OF 4 AM. A
PRETTY EXPANSIVE SNOW SHIELD IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS CONNECTICUT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
AND LIKELY ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE IF NOT AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD.
OVERALL...WE HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS. ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EASTWARD A BIT...AND
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SLIGHT CHANGE. ONE THING IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN...AND THAT IS THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. ONE TOWN MAY
HAVE 5 OR 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER TOWN 10 MILES TO THE WEST
MAY END UP WITH NEXT TO NOTHING. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS BY INCORPORATING THE LATEST HRRR POPS FOR THE
FIRST 12-15 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS BACK EDGE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. TODAY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE A CASE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT OUR MOUNTAINS ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY OR
MOSTLY DRY.
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEASTERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE SNOW-FREE AFTER 00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB +PNA PATTERN WILL DISAPPEAR AS
THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND BOTH UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT AND
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER ERN NO AMERICA AND ALLOW COLD CORE OF
AIR TO DROP EQUATORWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF WEEK. SO...COLD TO START THE EXTENDED...MAYBE A LITTLE WARM UP
TO AROUND NORMAL LATE WEEK...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN COLDER NEXT
WEEKEND.
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BE COLD WITH ENOUGH WIND SUNDAY EVE TO PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR -20 IN THE N...AND BLO ZERO EVERYWHERE
ELSE...BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL COLD
AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE N...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 10-20 F
RANGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS 500 MB TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINA COAST....DEPENDING ON
WHETHER YOU FOLLOW THE EURO OR GFS. THE EURO IS MUCH MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW AND INTENSIFYING THE
SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ENOUGH TO SPREAD
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE CWA. THE GFS KEEPS THE SFC FLOW
FURTHER E AND INTENSIFIES LATER...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS SNOW AND
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE IN THE ERN ZONES.
GIVEN THE SOLID PERFORMANCE OF THE EURO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION
AND HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA ON TUE. STILL IT LOOKS
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...SO ANY SNOW WILL
HAVE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIO.
SHOULD SEE NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND HIGHS ON WED LIMITED TO THE TEENS TO AROUND
20 AGAIN. AS THAT INTENSE LOW HEADS NE THROUGH THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR THUS...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER
NH/ME...AND A BIT OF WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES AND BRINGS THE COLD BACK BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE BECOMING IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW BY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE. POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW LATE MON INTO TUE EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR BY WED...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST WATERS AS COASTAL STORM
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SCA LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS A GOOD BET SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SCA POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
GALES TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND
E.
&&
.COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE
AVOIDED TODAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE AS
THE WINDS FROM THE COASTAL STORM SHOULD NOT HAVE KICKED IN YET.
HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR FOR SOME POTENTIAL VERY MINOR SPASHOVER.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR MEZ018>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ008-009-011-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
643 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY TODAY
AND THEN ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO MATCH UP W/THE LATEST
CONDITIONS. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. SOME ENHANCEMENT WAS SHOWING UP ON THE
RADAR SOUTH OF PQI ALONG THE RT 1 CORRIDOR. DECIDED TO ADJUST THE
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STAYING W/70% EARLY
THIS MORNING AND DROPPED THE POPS N AND W OF THIS BAND TO CHANCE.
THE LATEST RAP WHICH WAS CLOSE ON THIS SETUP SHOWED FORCING TO
WEAKEN W/IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.
THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM TO AFFECT
THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A TIGHT PRECIP
GRADIENT W/NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE GETTING SHUT OUT ON THIS
EVENT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE CRUCIAL NOT ONLY TO QPF AND
SNOWFALL BUT ALSO TO THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP MATCHED UP WELL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS W/TAKING THE SFC LOW FROM THE CAROLINAS
TODAY TO THE NOVA SCOTIA REGION. LATEST PRECIP ANALYSIS AT 06Z
SHOWED THAT TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER THE DELMARVA.
THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLL IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY AS ONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS DECENT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM 1000-700MBS THAT SETS UP ACROSS
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIP/SNOWFALL RATES. BLYR TEMPS WILL
BE CRUCIAL ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY. DECIDED
TO USE CONSENSUS APCH W/THIS EVENT AND BRING A NOSE OF WARMER IN
THE LLVLS OVER THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST. THIS TRANSLATES TO MID
30S AT THE SURFACE ALLOWING SNOW TO GO TO RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN FOR A
PERIOD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO FALL BACK AFTER ABOUT 8 PM WITH PRECIP GOING BACK TO SNOW
W/SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. BACK TO THE W AND N, BLYR TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. ALL WINTER HEADLINES REMAIN IN
PLACE AS IS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY
AS THE HEAVY BOUT OF PRECIP THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION W/THE
COOLING TEMPS COULD ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO CLOSE IN NEAR 7
INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITING AND EASTPORT AREAS.
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN AND END LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL ADD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW W/OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
SHOULD DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH AND MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWN EAST BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL TO ABOUT 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE NORTH AND 10 TO 15 CENTRAL
AND DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD WITH SUB
ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER FOR TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
WARRANTED BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH DOWN EAST AND COASTAL AREAS ONCE AGAIN
APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
ANY SNOW WILL WIND DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS AND VFR FOR BGR AND BHB. THIS WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM KHUL DOWN TO KBHB W/SOME SNOW AND
CONDITIONS GOING TO MVFR AND IFR. LIFR IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
FOR KBGR AND KBHB IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND SOME TURBULENCE.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT BY MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SNOW LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB
TERMINALS. VFR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS/SEAS ARE STARTING TO COME UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
PER 07Z OBS. WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO
HIT 40S OUT OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 7 TO 11 FT BY LATER TONIGHT.
SOME MINOR OVERWASH ALONG HANCOCK COUNTY NEAR SEAWALL ROAD AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY IS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
NEAR SHORE MODEL INDICATED THAT ANY OVERWASH WOULD BE MINOR. THE
DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO SUNDAY WITH
WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
MONDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE GALES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
MEZ011-015>017-029-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
MEZ005-006-030-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
448 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY TODAY
AND THEN ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHALLENGE FOR THIS TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL AND PLACEMENT.
LIGHT SNOW WAS FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE AS OF 07Z
PER THE LATEST RADAR AND OBS. THIS BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW WAS IN
RESPONSE TO THE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION W/THE HELP OF
A JETSTREAK OF 40 KTS RESIDING AT 700MB. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL END
THIS MORNING AND THEN THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING STORM TO AFFECT THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AND THERE
APPEARS TO BE A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT W/NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE
GETTING SHUT OUT ON THIS EVENT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRUCIAL NOT ONLY TO QPF AND SNOWFALL BUT ALSO TO THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE.
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP MATCHED UP WELL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS W/TAKING THE SFC LOW FROM THE CAROLINAS
TODAY TO THE NOVA SCOTIA REGION. LATEST PRECIP ANALYSIS AT 06Z
SHOWED THAT TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER THE DELMARVA.
THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLL IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY AS ONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS DECENT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM 1000-700MBS THAT SETS UP ACROSS
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIP/SNOWFALL RATES. BLYR TEMPS WILL
BE CRUCIAL ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY. DECIDED
TO USE CONSENSUS APCH W/THIS EVENT AND BRING A NOSE OF WARMER IN
THE LLVLS OVER THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST. THIS TRANSLATES TO MID
30S AT THE SURFACE ALLOWING SNOW TO GO TO RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN FOR A
PERIOD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO FALL BACK AFTER ABOUT 8 PM WITH PRECIP GOING BACK TO SNOW
W/SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. BACK TO THE W AND N, BLYR TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. ALL WINTER HEADLINES REMAIN IN
PLACE AS IS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY
AS THE HEAVY BOUT OF PRECIP THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION W/THE
COOLING TEMPS COULD ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO CLOSE IN NEAR 7
INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITING AND EASTPORT AREAS.
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN AND END LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL ADD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW W/OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
SHOULD DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH AND MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWN EAST BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL TO ABOUT 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE NORTH AND 10 TO 15 CENTRAL
AND DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD WITH SUB
ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER FOR TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
WARRANTED BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH DOWN EAST AND COASTAL AREAS ONCE AGAIN
APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
ANY SNOW WILL WIND DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS AND VFR FOR BGR AND BHB. THIS WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM KHUL DOWN TO KBHB W/SOME SNOW AND
CONDITIONS GOING TO MVFR AND IFR. LIFR IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
FOR KBGR AND KBHB IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND SOME TURBULENCE.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT BY MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SNOW LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB
TERMINALS. VFR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS/SEAS ARE STARTING TO COME UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
PER 07Z OBS. WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO
HIT 40S OUT OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 7 TO 11 FT BY LATER TONIGHT.
SOME MINOR OVERWASH ALONG HANCOCK COUNTY NEAR SEAWALL ROAD AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY IS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
NEAR SHORE MODEL INDICATED THAT ANY OVERWASH WOULD BE MINOR. THE
DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO SUNDAY WITH
WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
MONDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE GALES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
MEZ011-015>017-029-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
MEZ005-006-030-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
414 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND EXIT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
QUICKLY DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND COULD END UP MOVING
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF OF THE DELAWARE COAST AS OF 4 AM. A
PRETTY EXPANSIVE SNOW SHIELD IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS CONNECTICUT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
AND LIKELY ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE IF NOT AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD.
OVERALL...WE HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS. ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EASTWARD A BIT...AND
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SLIGHT CHANGE. ONE THING IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN...AND THAT IS THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. ONE TOWN MAY
HAVE 5 OR 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER TOWN 10 MILES TO THE WEST
MAY END UP WITH NEXT TO NOTHING. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS BY INCORPORATING THE LATEST HRRR POPS FOR THE
FIRST 12-15 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS BACK EDGE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. TODAY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE A CASE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT OUR MOUNTAINS ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY OR
MOSTLY DRY.
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEASTERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE SNOW-FREE AFTER 00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB +PNA PATTERN WILL DISAPPEAR AS
THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND BOTH UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT AND
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER ERN NO AMERICA AND ALLOW COLD CORE OF
AIR TO DROP EQUATORWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF WEEK. SO...COLD TO START THE EXTENDED...MAYBE A LITTLE WARM UP
TO AROUND NORMAL LATE WEEK...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN COLDER NEXT
WEEKEND.
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BE COLD WITH ENOUGH WIND SUNDAY EVE TO PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR -20 IN THE N...AND BLO ZERO EVERYWHERE
ELSE...BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL COLD
AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE N...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 10-20 F
RANGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS 500 MB TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINA COAST....DEPENDING ON
WHETHER YOU FOLLOW THE EURO OR GFS. THE EURO IS MUCH MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW AND INTENSIFYING THE
SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ENOUGH TO SPREAD
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE CWA. THE GFS KEEPS THE SFC FLOW
FURTHER E AND INTENSIFIES LATER...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS SNOW AND
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE IN THE ERN ZONES.
GIVEN THE SOLID PERFORMANCE OF THE EURO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION
AND HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA ON TUE. STILL IT LOOKS
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...SO ANY SNOW WILL
HAVE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIO.
SHOULD SEE NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND HIGHS ON WED LIMITED TO THE TEENS TO AROUND
20 AGAIN. AS THAT INTENSE LOW HEADS NE THROUGH THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR THUS...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER
NH/ME...AND A BIT OF WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES AND BRINGS THE COLD BACK BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE BECOMING IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW BY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE. POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW LATE MON INTO TUE EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR BY WED...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST WATERS AS COASTAL STORM
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SCA LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS A GOOD BET SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SCA POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
GALES TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND
E.
&&
.COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE
AVOIDED TODAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE AS
THE WINDS FROM THE COASTAL STORM SHOULD NOT HAVE KICKED IN YET.
HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR FOR SOME POTENTIAL VERY MINOR SPASHOVER.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR MEZ018>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ008-009-011-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
135 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW. STRENGTHENING LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
125 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS AND SNOW BASED ON THE LATEST
RADAR SHOWING SOME ENHANCED RETURNS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS W/THE WARM FRONT. THE RAP AND NAM12 WERE CLOSE IN
DEPICTING THE CURRENT SETUP. THEREFORE BROUGHT 70% POPS DOWN INTO
THE HOULTON AND DANFORTH REGIONS. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT
W/ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPS WERE HOLDING UP IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S NORTH TO SOUTH. HRLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO MATCH
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP OFF MUCH
FURTHER OVERNIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
STORM TRACK WILL PRODUCE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF... ALL OF WHICH HAVE BEEN CONVERGING ON A COMMON SOLUTION...
FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL USE THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL INITIALIZE WITH THE
SUPER BLEND THEN RAISE BOTH MINIMUM AND MAXMUM TEMPERATURE
SLIGHTLY. FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST TO NOVA
SCOTIA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM,
WITH THE GENERAL TREND HAVING BEEN TO WARM THINGS JUST A TAD AND
TO SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. WE STILL
EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE A
DEFORMATION BAND WILL SET UP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES UNDER THIS BAND,
WITH A VERY SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT ON ITS NORTHWEST SIDE. WITH
THE SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT, WE`VE ALSO SHIFTED THE HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE IS NOW
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE, WITH INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF WASHINGTON, HANCOCK SEEING 8 TO 12 INCHES. WE HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THESE REGIONS. THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL MIX WITH SNOW FOR A TIME SATURDAY EVENING, WHICH
WILL KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT LOWER, MORE IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH
RANGE. ALSO, ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WARNING AREA, LOCATIONS SUCH
AS HOULTON, MILLINOCKET, AND DOVER- FOXCROFT WILL SEE 3 TO 6
INCHES, SO HAVE PUT THESE AREAS IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS
WELL.
THE STORM IS A FAST MOVER, SO THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. COLDER DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, LEADING TO DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MSLY FAIR AND VERY COLD...WITH THE COLDEST
OVRNGT LOWS OVR THE FAR NRN QUARTER OF ME...WHERE SKIES WILL BE
CLEAREST AND WINDS LIGHTEST UNDER A RIDGE OF CAN SFC HI PRES. OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS...HI/MID CLDNSS AND A NE BREEZE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
LATE AS LOW PRES BEGINS TO MOVE ENE FROM THE NC COAST.
THE CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS ATTM SLIDES MOST OF THE PRECIP...IN THE
FORM OF SN JUST S OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS THE DOWNEAST COAST
GETTING GRAZED WHERE WE WENT WITH LOW CHC POPS. ANOTHER...NOT AS
COLD AS ARCTIC AIR MASS FOLLOWS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRES MOVG
WELL S OF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST FOR OUR REGION TUE NGT AND WED.
THE NEXT CHC OF MAINLY LGT SN WILL BE LATER THU INTO THU NGT WITH A
SFC LOW AND S/WV MOVG E FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL
CAN...APCHS AND CROSSES THE REGION. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES...THE 12Z OPNL GFS DIFFERS ON THE CALIBER
OF ARCTIC AIR WHICH FOLLOWS FOR LATER FRI INTO FRI NGT...WITH THE
GFS MUCH COLDER THAN THE ECMWF. WE TOOK A BLENDED APCH FOR TEMPS ON
FRI...REFLECTING A COMPROMISE FOR NOW UNTIL WE GET BETTER RESOLUTION
OF THIS DIFFERENCE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS OVR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MOSTLY MVFR AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH -SN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM KPQI NORTH.
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR
BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KBHB AND KBGR
00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 08Z AS WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVES ACROSS EASTERN AND
DOWNEAST MAINE. THE OTHER SITES WILL LIKELY BE MVFR, THOUGH IFR IS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT KHUL. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
IMPROVE BY 12Z SUNDAY AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END AND SKIES CLEAR.
VFR IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. THEN MAINLY VFR
MON NGT INTO WED...WITH MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH LGT SN POSSIBLE
ON TUE AT KBHB.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS. FOR
WAVES: CURRENTLY PRIMARY WAVE GROUP IS OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS DEPENDENT ON DISTANCE OFF-SHORE. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED
BY SECONDARY SOUTHEAST LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM (1-2 FEET/9
SECONDS). TONIGHT WIND WAVES WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET/5-6 SECONDS AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE. HAVE RUN NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL AT
1200Z THIS MORNING AND WILL USE THIS FOR WAVE GRIDS.
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. GUSTS
TO 40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, BUT THE GALE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 25 KT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
MEZ011-015>017-029-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
MEZ005-006-030-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
654 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SPREADING SNOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS
THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES EAST MONDAY...WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED NEAR MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
7PM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS THE SNOW EVENT IS
REALLY JUST GETTING UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE PLAGUED
MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA...EATING INTO THE INITIAL ONSET OF
SNOW AND IN SOME LOCATIONS EVEN KEEPING RAIN FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THEIR DEWPOINTS AND NO OUTSIDE COLD
AIR PUSH...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WITH NORMAL DIURNAL
COOLING. ULTIMATELY IT AMOUNTS TO LESS SNOW IN THE FORECAST TOTAL
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. WILL BE RE-WORKING NEW
TOTALS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE...BUT CHANGES TO THE WEATHER WERE MADE
THROUGH PRE-DAWN MONDAY TO REFLECT THE WARMER REALITY.
TAX
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL LOW CENTER JUST OVER WESTERN KY
NOW SHIFTING EAST AS THE ASSOCIATED JET MAX SITS RIGHT OVER OR
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING THINGS WELL SO
FAR TODAY AND OPTED TO MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS
OF MORE INTENSE SNOW THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RUNS.
OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS LATEST RUNS HELD GOOD CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND CONSEQUENTLY
THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY NOT BE UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO
AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTH WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4-6 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH TO
INTERSTATE 80 WHERE MODELS SHOW THE BEST DYNAMICS. THE MOST
INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES AREA EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM EARLY THIS
EVENING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHICH COVERS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WAS LEFT UNCHANGED. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION.;
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO APPROXIMATELY 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE ONLY DRY 24 HOUR PERIOD
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ONE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME IMPORTANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEXT CLIPPER AND DELIVERY OF EVEN COLDER ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE UPPER OHO VALLEY. WPC PROGS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...SAVE
STRANGELY ENOUGH FOR FKL/DUJ. THESE SITES WILL SINK TO IFR OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. A PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR VSBY
EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MGW WILL TAKE A FEW MORE
HOURS TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT SHORT PERIODS OF
VLIFR AS WELL. SNOW WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z MONDAY BUT START TO
EASE A BIT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. SOME SITES MAY
ACHIEVE LOW-END MVFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. NEXT WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021>023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
644 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL LOW CENTER JUST OVER WESTERN KY
NOW SHIFTING EAST AS THE ASSOCIATED JET MAX SITS RIGHT OVER OR
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING THINGS WELL SO
FAR TODAY AND OPTED TO MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS
OF MORE INTENSE SNOW THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RUNS.
OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS LATEST RUNS HELD GOOD CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY NOT BE UNTIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTH WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ALL SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4-6
INCHES THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS FROM PITTSBURGH
NORTH TO INTERSTATE 80 WHERE MODELS SHOW THE BEST DYNAMICS. THE
MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES AREA EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM EARLY THIS
EVENING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHICH COVERS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WAS LEFT UNCHANGED. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION.;
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO APPROXIMATELY 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE ONLY DRY 24 HOUR PERIOD
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ONE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME IMPORTANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEXT CLIPPER AND DELIVERY OF EVEN COLDER ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE UPPER OHO VALLEY. WPC PROGS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...SAVE
STRANGELY ENOUGH FOR FKL/DUJ. THESE SITES WILL SINK TO IFR OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. A PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR VSBY
EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MGW WILL TAKE A FEW MORE
HOURS TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT SHORT PERIODS OF
VLIFR AS WELL. SNOW WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z MONDAY BUT START TO
EASE A BIT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. SOME SITES MAY
ACHIEVE LOW-END MVFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. NEXT WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021>023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1253 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~993 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL
OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GULF
OF MEXICO. LATEST RADAR INDICATES BULK OF WIDESPREAD RAIN NOW
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BAY...WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE FARTHER INLAND. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S (ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC THIS IS ACTUALLY A
SIGNIFICANT DROP FROM READINGS EARLIER THIS MORNING).
LAGGING UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WILL PIVOT EAST ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HRS. THIS ENERGY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO SPARK OFF A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE EARLY THIS
AFTN WRN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND LATER IN THE AFTN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING EAST TO THE COAST. WHILE THE BNDRY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY
WARM WITH MODEL SFC WET BULBS ABOVE FREEZING...THINKING IS THAT WE COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PCPN COULD TURN TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN HIGHER PCPN RATES. THUS HAVE KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW IN BY
THIS AFTN ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION. GENLY EXPECT NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE NRN NECK AND MD ERN SHORE LATE THIS AFTN AS THIS WOULD
TEND TO BE THE AREA WHERE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL COINCIDE WITH
THE MOST LEFTOVER MOISTURE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENLY BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S...BUT MANY AREAS W OF THE BAY WILL SEE READINGS
HOLD IN THE 30S UNTIL AFTER 21Z...WHILE NE AREAS MAY ACTUALLY SEE
TEMPS FALL W/ THE 2ND BAND OF SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST 00Z SUITE OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND
FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
RAPID DRYING OF ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL FORECAST DRY
CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TNGT OTHER
THAN A SML CHC FOR SNOW BRIEFLY IN THE EARLY EVENING ON THE MD ERN
SHR/NRN NECK. LOWS 30-35. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUN WITH HIGHS
RANGING FM THE LWR 50S S...TO THE MID TO UPR 40S N IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS SUN
EVENG/NGT AND SLIDES E THRU SRN VA/NC AND OFFSHR LATE SUN NGT THRU
MON. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS WITH REGARD TO
HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...AND DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTH OF LO
PRES JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST BY 00Z TUE. TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR
SUN NGT AND MON...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS AT LEAST THE
NRN HALF OF THE AREA DURING MON...AND LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW
EVERYWHERE MON NGT. THIS IS BY FAR LOOKING LIKE OUR BEST CHC FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THUS FAR THIS WINTER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. LOWS
SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 30S. HIGHS ON MON RANGING FM THE MID 30S
EXTRM NW/N...TO THE MID TO UPR 40S EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC (WITH
TEMPS LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THRU THE DAY). STAY
TUNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP/ANOMALOUS NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. TO BEGIN
THE EXTENDED...LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES MORNING AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVES DIGS OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE
TN/KY VALLEYS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TUES MORNING. ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. HEIGHT FALLS IN TANDEM
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP THRU MON
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO
PREDOMINATELY SNOW THRU THE NIGHT...REACHING SE VA/NE NC AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR SURE...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES AS
THE SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT EXPECT BRUNT OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE. THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE LATE TUES NIGHT-WEDS
MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM OFFSHORE TUES
NIGHT...BUT INCREASING NWLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION
THURS...AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS NIGHT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TUES-WEDS IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S. TEMPS REBOUND THURS-FRI INTO THE LOW-MID 40S.
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUES NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN WITH THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST AND OFFSHORE
ERLY THIS AFTRN. UPR LVL SYSTM TO CROSS THE AREA NEXT 2-5 HRS
WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN. CIGS ALRDY IFR BUT VSBYS HAVE
IMPROVED PAST FEW HRS...MAINLY DUE TO THE CAA AND GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. THUS...WENT WITH A 3 HR TEMPO GROUP FOR
-RA & LWR VSBYS AS THE PCPN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN.
APPEARS CAA MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET & MAYBE WET SNOW FLAKES TO
MIX IN AT SBY BEFORE ENDING ARND SUNSET. NW TO W WNDS AVG 10-15
WITH G20 KTS ALONG THE COAST.
TSCTNS SHOW A QUICK DRYING OF THE COLUMN AFTR 00Z RESULTING IN
CRG SKIES THRU THE EVENING. SO XPCT CINDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS COULD AGAIN CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER SE VA/NC
COAST THIS MORNING. STILL NOTING SOME W-SW FLOW JUST E-NE OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES, WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NNW IN THE BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. HRRR AND RAP BOTH CATCHING ON TO THE
EXPECTED LULL IN SCA WINDS AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW
LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO ENSUE AS THE
LOW LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE WATERS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTN AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA. SWAN AND
WAVEWATCH SEEM TO MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH SEAS IN
THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS BECOME MORE WLY SAT AFTERNOON AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
AND CAA SURGE WANES. SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND RUN
THRU THE DAY SAT...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE
FAR LOWER CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT. SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT
(UP TO 7 FT IN THE NRN WATERS) THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING THRU THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY, WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAINING SUB-SCA
SUN/SUN NGT. THAT SUB-SCA CONDITION WILL BE SHORT LIVED,
HOWEVER...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA
WATERS MON...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY MONDAY MORNING, WITH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MON AFTERNOON/TUESDAY. LOW END GALES WILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 8-12FT
JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY NGT/TUESDAY. STRONG NWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE WATERS REMAIN
BTWN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE OH VALLEY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
631-633-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAM/SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1041 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~993 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL
OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GULF
OF MEXICO. LATEST RADAR INDICATES BULK OF WIDESPREAD RAIN NOW
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BAY...WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE FARTHER INLAND. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S (ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC THIS IS ACTUALLY A
SIGNIFICANT DROP FROM READINGS EARLIER THIS MORNING).
LAGGING UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WILL PIVOT EAST ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HRS. THIS ENERGY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO SPARK OFF A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE EARLY THIS
AFTN WRN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND LATER IN THE AFTN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING EAST TO THE COAST. WHILE THE BNDRY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY
WARM WITH MODEL SFC WET BULBS ABOVE FREEZING...THINKING IS THAT WE COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PCPN COULD TURN TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN HIGHER PCPN RATES. THUS HAVE KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW IN BY
THIS AFTN ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION. GENLY EXPECT NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE NRN NECK AND MD ERN SHORE LATE THIS AFTN AS THIS WOULD
TEND TO BE THE AREA WHERE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL COINCIDE WITH
THE MOST LEFTOVER MOISTURE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENLY BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S...BUT MANY AREAS W OF THE BAY WILL SEE READINGS
HOLD IN THE 30S UNTIL AFTER 21Z...WHILE NE AREAS MAY ACTUALLY SEE
TEMPS FALL W/ THE 2ND BAND OF SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST 00Z SUITE OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND
FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
RAPID DRYING OF ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL FORECAST DRY
CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TNGT OTHER
THAN A SML CHC FOR SNOW BRIEFLY IN THE EARLY EVENING ON THE MD ERN
SHR/NRN NECK. LOWS 30-35. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUN WITH HIGHS
RANGING FM THE LWR 50S S...TO THE MID TO UPR 40S N IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS SUN
EVENG/NGT AND SLIDES E THRU SRN VA/NC AND OFFSHR LATE SUN NGT THRU
MON. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS WITH REGARD TO
HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...AND DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTH OF LO
PRES JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST BY 00Z TUE. TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR
SUN NGT AND MON...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS AT LEAST THE
NRN HALF OF THE AREA DURING MON...AND LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW
EVERYWHERE MON NGT. THIS IS BY FAR LOOKING LIKE OUR BEST CHC FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THUS FAR THIS WINTER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. LOWS
SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 30S. HIGHS ON MON RANGING FM THE MID 30S
EXTRM NW/N...TO THE MID TO UPR 40S EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC (WITH
TEMPS LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THRU THE DAY). STAY
TUNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP/ANOMALOUS NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. TO BEGIN
THE EXTENDED...LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES MORNING AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVES DIGS OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE
TN/KY VALLEYS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TUES MORNING. ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. HEIGHT FALLS IN TANDEM
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP THRU MON
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO
PREDOMINATELY SNOW THRU THE NIGHT...REACHING SE VA/NE NC AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR SURE...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES AS
THE SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT EXPECT BRUNT OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE. THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE LATE TUES NIGHT-WEDS
MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM OFFSHORE TUES
NIGHT...BUT INCREASING NWLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION
THURS...AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS NIGHT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TUES-WEDS IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S. TEMPS REBOUND THURS-FRI INTO THE LOW-MID 40S.
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUES NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS MORNING
WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTN. LATEST OBS
REFLECT WIDESPREAD IFR W/SOME LCL LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST BY
EARLY AFTN. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS ACROSS THE AREA, SOME OF THE
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHRAS AS PCPN ENDS BY LATE
MORNING (PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE RIC). NOT EXPECTING ANY
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS AT TERMINAL WITH ANY RA/SN AND CHCS APPEAR A
BIT LESS THAN EARLIER, SO HV HELD OUT ONCE AGAIN FOR 12Z
ISSUANCE.ONCE THE MOISTURE CLEARS BY MID AFTN TO ERY EVENING...WILL
SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS COULD AGAIN CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PERSSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER SE VA/NC
COAST THIS MORNING. STILL NOTING SOME W-SW FLOW JUST E-NE OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES, WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NNW IN THE BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. HRRR AND RAP BOTH CATCHING ON TO THE
EXPECTED LULL IN SCA WINDS AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW
LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO ENSUE AS THE
LOW LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE WATERS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTN AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA. SWAN AND
WAVEWATCH SEEM TO MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH SEAS IN
THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS BECOME MORE WLY SAT AFTERNOON AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
AND CAA SURGE WANES. SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND RUN
THRU THE DAY SAT...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE
FAR LOWER CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT. SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT
(UP TO 7 FT IN THE NRN WATERS) THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING THRU THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY, WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAINING SUB-SCA
SUN/SUN NGT. THAT SUB-SCA CONDITION WILL BE SHORT LIVED,
HOWEVER...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA
WATERS MON...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY MONDAY MORNING, WITH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MON AFTERNOON/TUESDAY. LOW END GALES WILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 8-12FT
JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY NGT/TUESDAY. STRONG NWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE WATERS REMAIN
BTWN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE OH VALLEY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
631-633-635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM/SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
739 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WILL
CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...ELONGATED LO PRES WAS JUST E OF VA BEACH SW TO
NEAR THE SE NC AND NE SC CST. LATEST RDR INDICATED JUST SCTD AREAS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OCCURRING OVR THE CWA. THE LO WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST TODAY.
LAGGING UPR TROF WITH SOME STRONGER FORCING WILL LIFT ACRS THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNG THRU THE AFTN...BRINGING MORE PCPN WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS REMAINING OVR THE ERN/SERN COUNTIES. COULD SEE
ANOTHER 0.25-0.50" OF RAINFALL OVR THESE COUNTIES BEFORE THE PCPN
ENDS EARLY THIS EVENG. WHILE THE BNDRY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY
WARM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PCPN COULD TURN TO SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN HIGHER PCPN RATES. THUS HAVE KEEP MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW IN BY THIS AFTN ACRS N/W 1/2 OF THE CWA GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS ARE AT THEIR HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNG OVR EXTRM
SE VA AND CSTL NE NC IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WHERE THE CSTL
FRONT WAS SITTING JUST INLAND OF THESE AREAS. TEMPS ELSEWHERE WERE
RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. ONCE THAT BOUNDARY PUSHES
OFF THE CST LATER THIS MORNG...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 40S
DURING TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST 00Z SUITE OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND
FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
RAPID DRYING OF ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL FORECAST DRY
CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TNGT OTHER
THAN A SML CHC FOR SNOW BRIEFLY IN THE EARLY EVENING ON THE MD ERN
SHR/NRN NECK. LOWS 30-35. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUN WITH HIGHS
RANGING FM THE LWR 50S S...TO THE MID TO UPR 40S N IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS SUN
EVENG/NGT AND SLIDES E THRU SRN VA/NC AND OFFSHR LATE SUN NGT THRU
MON. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS WITH REGARD TO
HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...AND DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTH OF LO
PRES JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST BY 00Z TUE. TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR
SUN NGT AND MON...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS AT LEAST THE
NRN HALF OF THE AREA DURING MON...AND LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW
EVERYWHERE MON NGT. THIS IS BY FAR LOOKING LIKE OUR BEST CHC FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THUS FAR THIS WINTER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. LOWS
SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 30S. HIGHS ON MON RANGING FM THE MID 30S
EXTRM NW/N...TO THE MID TO UPR 40S EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC (WITH
TEMPS LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THRU THE DAY). STAY
TUNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP/ANOMALOUS NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. TO BEGIN
THE EXTENDED...LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES MORNING AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVES DIGS OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE
TN/KY VALLEYS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TUES MORNING. ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. HEIGHT FALLS IN TANDEM
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP THRU MON
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO
PREDOMINATELY SNOW THRU THE NIGHT...REACHING SE VA/NE NC AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR SURE...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES AS
THE SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT EXPECT BRUNT OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE. THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE LATE TUES NIGHT-WEDS
MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM OFFSHORE TUES
NIGHT...BUT INCREASING NWLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION
THURS...AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS NIGHT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TUES-WEDS IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S. TEMPS REBOUND THURS-FRI INTO THE LOW-MID 40S.
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUES NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS MORNING
WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTN. LATEST OBS
REFLECT WIDESPREAD IFR W/SOME LCL LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST BY
EARLY AFTN. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS ACROSS THE AREA, SOME OF THE
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHRAS AS PCPN ENDS BY LATE
MORNING (PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE RIC). NOT EXPECTING ANY
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS AT TERMINAL WITH ANY RA/SN AND CHCS APPEAR A
BIT LESS THAN EARLIER, SO HV HELD OUT ONCE AGAIN FOR 12Z
ISSUANCE.ONCE THE MOISTURE CLEARS BY MID AFTN TO ERY EVENING...WILL
SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS COULD AGAIN CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PERSSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER SE VA/NC
COAST THIS MORNING. STILL NOTING SOME W-SW FLOW JUST E-NE OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES, WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NNW IN THE BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. HRRR AND RAP BOTH CATCHING ON TO THE
EXPECTED LULL IN SCA WINDS AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW
LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO ENSUE AS THE
LOW LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE WATERS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTN AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA. SWAN AND
WAVEWATCH SEEM TO MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH SEAS IN
THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS BECOME MORE WLY SAT AFTERNOON AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
AND CAA SURGE WANES. SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND RUN
THRU THE DAY SAT...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE
FAR LOWER CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT. SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT
(UP TO 7 FT IN THE NRN WATERS) THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING THRU THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY, WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAINING SUB-SCA
SUN/SUN NGT. THAT SUB-SCA CONDITION WILL BE SHORT LIVED,
HOWEVER...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA
WATERS MON...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY MONDAY MORNING, WITH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MON AFTERNOON/TUESDAY. LOW END GALES WILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 8-12FT
JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY NGT/TUESDAY. STRONG NWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE WATERS REMAIN
BTWN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE OH VALLEY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
631-633-635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM/SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
504 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WILL
CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...ELONGATED LO PRES WAS JUST E OF VA BEACH SW TO
NEAR THE SE NC AND NE SC CST. LATEST RDR INDICATED JUST SCTD AREAS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OCCURRING OVR THE CWA. THE LO WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST TODAY.
LAGGING UPR TROF WITH SOME STRONGER FORCING WILL LIFT ACRS THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNG THRU THE AFTN...BRINGING MORE PCPN WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS REMAINING OVR THE ERN/SERN COUNTIES. COULD SEE
ANOTHER 0.25-0.50" OF RAINFALL OVR THESE COUNTIES BEFORE THE PCPN
ENDS EARLY THIS EVENG. WHILE THE BNDRY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY
WARM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PCPN COULD TURN TO SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN HIGHER PCPN RATES. THUS HAVE KEEP MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW IN BY THIS AFTN ACRS N/W 1/2 OF THE CWA GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS ARE AT THEIR HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNG OVR EXTRM
SE VA AND CSTL NE NC IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WHERE THE CSTL
FRONT WAS SITTING JUST INLAND OF THESE AREAS. TEMPS ELSEWHERE WERE
RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. ONCE THAT BOUNDARY PUSHES
OFF THE CST LATER THIS MORNG...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 40S
DURING TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST 00Z SUITE OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND
FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
RAPID DRYING OF ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL FORECAST DRY
CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TNGT OTHER
THAN A SML CHC FOR SNOW BRIEFLY IN THE EARLY EVENING ON THE MD ERN
SHR/NRN NECK. LOWS 30-35. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUN WITH HIGHS
RANGING FM THE LWR 50S S...TO THE MID TO UPR 40S N IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS SUN
EVENG/NGT AND SLIDES E THRU SRN VA/NC AND OFFSHR LATE SUN NGT THRU
MON. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS WITH REGARD TO
HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...AND DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTH OF LO
PRES JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST BY 00Z TUE. TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR
SUN NGT AND MON...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS AT LEAST THE
NRN HALF OF THE AREA DURING MON...AND LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW
EVERYWHERE MON NGT. THIS IS BY FAR LOOKING LIKE OUR BEST CHC FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THUS FAR THIS WINTER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. LOWS
SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 30S. HIGHS ON MON RANGING FM THE MID 30S
EXTRM NW/N...TO THE MID TO UPR 40S EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC (WITH
TEMPS LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THRU THE DAY). STAY
TUNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP/ANOMALOUS NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. TO BEGIN
THE EXTENDED...LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES MORNING AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVES DIGS OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE
TN/KY VALLEYS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TUES MORNING. ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. HEIGHT FALLS IN TANDEM
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP THRU MON
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO
PREDOMINATELY SNOW THRU THE NIGHT...REACHING SE VA/NE NC AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR SURE...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES AS
THE SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT EXPECT BRUNT OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE. THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE LATE TUES NIGHT-WEDS
MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM OFFSHORE TUES
NIGHT...BUT INCREASING NWLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION
THURS...AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS NIGHT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TUES-WEDS IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S. TEMPS REBOUND THURS-FRI INTO THE LOW-MID 40S.
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUES NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE SE COAST TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO A
POSITION OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. LATEST
OBS REFLECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-
MORNING. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BACKING THE WINDS TO THE NNW INLAND AT RIC/SBY,
BRIEFLY VEERING WINDS TO THE SSW OVER SE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY
TODAY. A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN IS UNDERWAY AT RIC, AND HV GONE WITH A
BREIF PERIOD OF DZ BEFORE PCPN FILLS BACK IN BEFORE DAWN. WINDS
REMAIN MORE NORTH AND NORTHWEST BY MID-MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE REMAINING MOISTURE SWINGING OFF THE COAST BY
16-20Z. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS ACROSS THE AREA, SOME OF THE
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHRAS AS PCPN ENDS BY LATE
MORNING (PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE RIC. HAVE HELD THIS OUT
OF THE TAF FOR NOW, BUT WILL MONITOR FOR 12Z ISSUANCE. ONCE THE
MOISTURE CLEARS BY LATE AFTN/EVENING...WILL SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS COULD AGAIN CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PERSSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER SE VA/NC
COAST THIS MORNING. STILL NOTING SOME W-SW FLOW JUST E-NE OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES, WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NNW IN THE BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. HRRR AND RAP BOTH CATCHING ON TO THE
EXPECTED LULL IN SCA WINDS AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW
LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO ENSUE AS THE
LOW LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE WATERS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTN AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA. SWAN AND
WAVEWATCH SEEM TO MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH SEAS IN
THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS BECOME MORE WLY SAT AFTERNOON AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
AND CAA SURGE WANES. SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND RUN
THRU THE DAY SAT...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE
FAR LOWER CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT. SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT
(UP TO 7 FT IN THE NRN WATERS) THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING THRU THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY, WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAINING SUB-SCA
SUN/SUN NGT. THAT SUB-SCA CONDITION WILL BE SHORT LIVED,
HOWEVER...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA
WATERS MON...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY MONDAY MORNING, WITH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MON AFTERNOON/TUESDAY. LOW END GALES WILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 8-12FT
JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY NGT/TUESDAY. STRONG NWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE WATERS REMAIN
BTWN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE OH VALLEY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
631-633-635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM/SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
440 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WILL
CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...ELONGATED LO PRES WAS JUST E OF VA BEACH SW TO
NEAR THE SE NC AND NE SC CST. LATEST RDR INDICATED JUST SCTD AREAS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OCCURRING OVR THE CWA. THE LO WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST TODAY.
LAGGING UPR TROF WITH SOME STRONGER FORCING WILL LIFT ACRS THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNG THRU THE AFTN...BRINGING MORE PCPN WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS REMAINING OVR THE ERN/SERN COUNTIES. COULD SEE
ANOTHER 0.25-0.50" OF RAINFALL OVR THESE COUNTIES BEFORE THE PCPN
ENDS EARLY THIS EVENG. WHILE THE BNDRY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY
WARM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PCPN COULD TURN TO SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN HIGHER PCPN RATES. THUS HAVE KEEP MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW IN BY THIS AFTN ACRS N/W 1/2 OF THE CWA GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS ARE AT THEIR HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNG OVR EXTRM
SE VA AND CSTL NE NC IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WHERE THE CSTL
FRONT WAS SITTING JUST INLAND OF THESE AREAS. TEMPS ELSEWHERE WERE
RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. ONCE THAT BOUNDARY PUSHES
OFF THE CST LATER THIS MORNG...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 40S
DURING TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST 12Z SUITE OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND FASTER/MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID DRYING OF
ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAT NIGHT OTHER THAN A CHC FOR SNOW BRIEFLY
IN THE EVENING ON THE MD ERN SHORE/NRN NECK. LOWS 30-35 F. PARTLY
SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR 50S S TO THE MID 40S N ON SUN IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS APPROACHES FROM THE WNW SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS
CLIPPER SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS SUN NIGHT
AND SLIDES ESE THROUGH SRN VA/NC AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY MON.
MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT AS TO HOW FAST COLD AIR ARRIVES...GFS
SLOWEST/NAM/ECMWF A BIT FASTER ON MON. WILL CARRY HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ON MON. THIS IS BY FAR
LOOKING LIKE OUR BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THUS FAR THIS
WINTER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. HIGHS MON IN THE 40S S TO THE 30S N
(WITH TEMPS LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY). STAY
TUNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP/ANOMALOUS NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. TO BEGIN
THE EXTENDED...LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES MORNING AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVES DIGS OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE
TN/KY VALLEYS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TUES MORNING. ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. HEIGHT FALLS IN TANDEM
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP THRU MON
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO
PREDOMINATELY SNOW THRU THE NIGHT...REACHING SE VA/NE NC AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR SURE...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES AS
THE SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT EXPECT BRUNT OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE. THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE LATE TUES NIGHT-WEDS
MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM OFFSHORE TUES
NIGHT...BUT INCREASING NWLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION
THURS...AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS NIGHT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TUES-WEDS IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S. TEMPS REBOUND THURS-FRI INTO THE LOW-MID 40S.
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUES NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE SE COAST TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO A
POSITION OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. LATEST
OBS REFLECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-
MORNING. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BACKING THE WINDS TO THE NNW INLAND AT RIC/SBY,
BRIEFLY VEERING WINDS TO THE SSW OVER SE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY
TODAY. A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN IS UNDERWAY AT RIC, AND HV GONE WITH A
BREIF PERIOD OF DZ BEFORE PCPN FILLS BACK IN BEFORE DAWN. WINDS
REMAIN MORE NORTH AND NORTHWEST BY MID-MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE REMAINING MOISTURE SWINGING OFF THE COAST BY
16-20Z. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS ACROSS THE AREA, SOME OF THE
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHRAS AS PCPN ENDS BY LATE
MORNING (PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE RIC. HAVE HELD THIS OUT
OF THE TAF FOR NOW, BUT WILL MONITOR FOR 12Z ISSUANCE. ONCE THE
MOISTURE CLEARS BY LATE AFTN/EVENING...WILL SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS COULD AGAIN CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PERSSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER SE VA/NC
COAST THIS MORNING. STILL NOTING SOME W-SW FLOW JUST E-NE OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES, WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NNW IN THE BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. HRRR AND RAP BOTH CATCHING ON TO THE
EXPECTED LULL IN SCA WINDS AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW
LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO ENSUE AS THE
LOW LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE WATERS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTN AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA. SWAN AND
WAVEWATCH SEEM TO MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH SEAS IN
THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS BECOME MORE WLY SAT AFTERNOON AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
AND CAA SURGE WANES. SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND RUN
THRU THE DAY SAT...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE
FAR LOWER CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT. SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT
(UP TO 7 FT IN THE NRN WATERS) THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING THRU THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY, WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAINING SUB-SCA
SUN/SUN NGT. THAT SUB-SCA CONDITION WILL BE SHORT LIVED,
HOWEVER...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA
WATERS MON...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY MONDAY MORNING, WITH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MON AFTERNOON/TUESDAY. LOW END GALES WILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 8-12FT
JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY NGT/TUESDAY. STRONG NWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE WATERS REMAIN
BTWN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE OH VALLEY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
631-633-635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
548 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015
Precip over the CWA should be winding down over the next few hours
as upper level impulse works its way SE into the Ohio Valley.
Deformation zone that was so well defined this morning over IA and
n IL certainly falling apart as the afternoon progresses, and have
used a combination of regional radar and HRRR for PoP/weather
trends heading into the early evening. It would appear that the NW
edge of the precip (now all snow) will be near a KCOU-KILX line
by 00z, with the precip dropping southeast and exiting
SE sections of the CWA no later than 06z. Surface obs trends this
afternoon indicate that rain begins mixing with snow @ 36-37 and
is all snow at 34 or colder, and will use this for ptypes for the
rest of the afternoon and into the early evening. Given warm
ground and the light intensity of the precip once it goes to all
snow, accumulations should continue to be very minor.
Other question for tonight is how much clearing will occur as the
storm exits and a narrow ridge of high pressure works into the
region. Over the last few hours have seen a wedge of clearing
wrapping around the surface low from S WI into NE IA. Some of this
clearing may reach our area, but there is also a lot of additional
low cloud to our north that will advect our way as well, so for
now have only gone with partial clearing during the late evening
and overnight hours.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015
(Monday-Wednesday)
Overall, going forecast heading into midweek still looks pretty
good, so this package will include generally minor adjustments and
tweaks to these trends.
Fast moving shortwave in northwest flow will zip into the region on
Monday, with WAA in advance of this feature rapidly shutting down
the CAA occuring overnight in the wake of today`s clipper. 12z
synoptic runs are suggesting a fairly strong N-S warm front will be
located near or just west of STL by late Monday afternoon and have
attempted to reflect this in max temp forecast, allowing highs to
rebound into the middle 50s over mid MO while keeping highs in the
30s over our S IL counties. This temp trend also seems to be
supported by the model RH progs which suggest a fairly thick mid
deck sweeping from W to E across the area in the zone of WAA during
the day, with the most clouds over our eastern counties during the
afternoon. Some 12z guidance is even trying to kick out some
light QPF near and east of the Mississippi River in the zone of
strongest WAA. Have continued dry forecast for now, but will need
to keep an eye on this as there has been some very subtle suggestions
of this for several days.
The cold air advection behind Monday`s shortwave will try to dip
into the area Monday night, but with the longwave trof working into
the east coast during this time the main thrust of this cooler air
will be east of our area. Model consensus of thermal profiles over
the region support highs in the 40s over most of the CWA by Tuesday
as weak surface ridge drops into the Mississippi Valley.
Warmup still appears to be on schedule for Wednesday, and main
question is how much of the warming will be able to translate to the
surface. Forecast soundings are suggesting a large inversion, with
low level mixing up to 900-950mb. Surface/low level winds...while
strong...are going to primarily be southerly rather than the
southwest direction that normally gives us our biggest warmups.
Also some doubt to how much cloud cover there will be, as GFS
suggests some mid clouds working into the area during the afternoon
while NAM suggests lots of sunshine. Due to the above uncertainty
will keep highs about where they are now...ranging from the mid 40s
in our far eastern counties to near 60 in the far western tip of our
CWA.
(Thursday-Sunday)
Shortwave that works across the region Wednesday night and early
Thursday appears to be the first of several chunks of energy that
will be deepening long wave trof over the eastern U.S. heading into
the weekend, while cutoff low forms over the southwestern U.S.
Medium range solutions are in very broad agreement in developing
this split flow pattern, and in general this should mean temps
trending back towards more wintry levels after the mid-week warmup.
Will continue some slight chance PoPs on Wednesday night/Thursday
for eastern parts of the FA in advance of aforementioned shortwave,
with slight chance PoPs also continuing for parts of the FA on
Saturday and Saturday night as there is agreement in the medium
range models that WAA, a bit of shortwave energy, and a frontal
boundary will be passing through the area at that time.
Guidance is in reasonable agreement with their thermal profiles
through Saturday, but much like yesterday the operational ECMWF
continues to be deepest with the upper trof and much colder than the
GFS by the end of the period (it`s intesting to note that last
nights ECMWF-based MOS had over a 40 degree difference between the
warm and cold members for Sunday`s highs (58 vs 16). For now, will
lean towards MOS averages for temp trends on Sunday...which will be
in the 30s. This seems to be a reasonable compromise at this point,
with additional adjustments occurring as specific trends become less
muddled.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 547 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015
Surface low to continue tracking east away from forecast area this
evening. Light rain/snow to taper off by 02z Monday. Otherwise,
dealing with MVFR cigs through mid morning on Monday before
lifting/scattering out to vfr. As for winds, to remain gusty
through early this evening from the north, then diminish. Winds
then to back to the southwest by mid morning on Monday ahead of
next cold front. Cold front will be a dry passage with some sc and
mid clouds associated with it. It will move through KUIN by 20z
Monday, KCOU by 21z Monday and the metro area by 01z Tuesday with
winds veering to the west to northwest.
Specifics for KSTL:
Surface low to continue tracking east away from forecast area this
evening. Light rain/snow to taper off by 01z Monday. Otherwise,
dealing with MVFR cigs through 17z Monday before lifting/scattering
out to vfr. As for winds, to remain gusty through early this
evening from the north, then diminish by 08z Monday. Winds then to back
to the southwest by 17z Monday ahead of next cold front. Cold
front will be a dry passage with some sc and mid clouds associated
with it. It will move through metro area by 01z Tuesday with winds
veering to the northwest.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
331 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
STRONG SHORTWAVE BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN TO START
THE WORK WEEK...REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES.
STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIVING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS 150KT 300MB JET
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE. BOTH FEATURES WILL MOVE TOWARD OUR AREA
LATER THIS EVENING AND PROGRESS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE ALREADY OCCURRING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA CAUSED BY WEAK
VORTICITY LOBE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...WITH WING OF WARM ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE. COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THIS
EVENING WITH WESTERN NEBRASKA ACTIVITY...BUT MAIN PRECIP CHANCE
WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING WITH NORTHERN PLAINS ACTIVITY. EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE MARKEDLY BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA...WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR NORTH
WHERE LIFT ASSOCIATED BY MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARM SURFACE LAYER WILL KEEP PRECIP
LIQUID PAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION KICKS
IN...CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BUT STILL
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARM
TO OFFER DOUBT WHETHER PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW EXCEPT FOR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. WHERE SNOW DOES
FALL...QPF LOOKS TO REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH MELTING
OCCURRING AS WELL. THUS AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ARE
FORECAST NORTH AND EAST OF THE OMAHA METRO AREA...WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION SOUTH AND WEST.
WINDS WILL ALSO KICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT 850 JET...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PROMOTING
MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGEST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND MID SUNDAY MORNING. WILL ISSUE WIND
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA TO COVER THIS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING BY NOON SUNDAY...BUT STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY. THUS TEMPERATURES WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN STEADY OF FALL MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
30S ARE EXPECTED.
COOLDOWN BEHIND SYSTEM WILL BE BRIEF AS WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS MAY RISE OVERNIGHT AFTER AN EVENING
LOW...THEN A WIND SHIFT BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OCCUR EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PROMOTE DECENT MIXING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 850
TEMPERATURES IN THE 8-10C RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD REACH
60 IN OUR SOUTHWEST WITH PLENTY OF 50S ELSEWHERE.
A QUICK SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST...BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS NORMALLY NOT A WARM WIND FOR US...SO TEMPS WILL
BE A GOOD 5 OR 10 DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE A SIMILAR-
TO-MONDAY LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE. STILL SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN
THE 50S MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
ANOTHER WARM DAY WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND LIKELY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME BRIEFLY ZONAL IN THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER MILD DAY
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PUMPING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 50S. SIGNIFICANT COOLING
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS WAVE WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME 20C
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE...BUT TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING TOO FAR...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO TOP 40. A LITTLE
WARMER FRIDAY AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN BRIEFLY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER GREATLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FORECAST.
GFS BRINGS A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING PATTERN TO THE PLAINS WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE. ECMWF KEEPS PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTH
OF OUR AREA AND SLAMS THE PLAINS WITH MINUS 20C 850 AIR. FOR NOW OUR
FORECAST WILL BLEND THESE TWO SCENARIOS WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS IS STILL ON TRACK
TO MAKE A QUICK SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY...GUSTING 30KT TO 35KT AFTER
08Z. PERIODS OF -SHRA WILL BEGIN AT KOFK BY 05Z SPREADING INTO
KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. MVFR
CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN 05Z AND
11Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043-050-065.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
627 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THEN A CLIPPER LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 224 AM SATURDAY...
AS OF 6Z A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD PARALLELING I-95 INTO EASTERN GA. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW AND OUT TO SEA AROUND
THE TIDEWATER VA AREA. IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG THE COAST...BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. MOST
OF OUR CWA IS ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S NW TO SE AND DEWPOINTS RANGING THE SAME WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS.
WHATS LEFT OF THE CAD WEDGE HAS KEPT THESE SHORTWAVES CONFINED TO
EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE AND THAT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND FOR THE MOST PART OUT OF OUR AREA. EASTERN COUNTIES MAY
SEE SOME MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING BUT ANY POSSIBLE
THUNDER WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
THE MORE LIKELY MODE OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE TRIANGLE OUT TO THE TRIAD. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
COMPARED TO THOSE SEEN EARLIER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE BIG
FORECAST QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL RAIN LINGER INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE RAP HAS THE CAD WEDGE BREAKING DOWN BY ABOUT 10Z BUT
PRECIPITATION LINGERS ON UNTIL 18Z AND BEYOND. THIS 18Z TIME FRAME
IS ALSO BEING FAVORED BY THE OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND
LOOKING AT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...RADAR RETURNS THAT WOULD POSSIBLY
AFFECT OUR AREA EXTEND DOWN INTO THE FL PANHANDLE SO THAT IS NOT
UNREASONABLE. GUT FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE
EAST OF OUR AREA SO EXPECT ONLY ANOTHER TENTH OR TWO IN THE TRIAD
WITH UP TO A HALF OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN EXTREME EASTERN AREAS BUT
JUST OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH SEEMS MORE LIKELY.
LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST AS LONG AS PRECIPIATION IS AROUND WITH
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUT COMPLETELY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO FROM A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING TO MORE WESTERLY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THIS WIND SHIFT WILL COME SOME GUSTINESS
AS WELL WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 10KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS.
LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL BE TRICKY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BACK UNDER THE WEDGE...FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN LOW TO MIDDLE
30S FOR THE TRIAD. ALONG THE FRONT HOWEVER LOWS COULD BE AS HIGH AS
THE MID 40S. CLINTON IS STILL REPORTING 57 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS EVEN GOLDSBORO IS
REPORTING 48 DEGREES AT THIS TIME. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON A MUCH MORE EVEN TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR THE HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY...
SUN: EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF SUNDAY... AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS WEAKLY AND BRIEFLY INTO NC FROM THE SW WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN FROM
MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AHEAD OF THE STRONG CLIPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
START THE DAY CLOSE TO NORMAL AND RISE DECENTLY THROUGH THE DAY...
EQUATING TO HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
SUN NIGHT/MON/MON NIGHT: THE POTENT CLIPPER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM AROUND CINCINNATI EARLY SUN EVENING (THE 00Z GFS IS A TAD
SLOWER THAN THE NAM WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST BY NEARLY 6 HRS)
ACROSS SW VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL/NE NC THROUGH MON MORNING. THE GFS
HAS BEEN TRENDING DEEPER AND A TAD FASTER WHILE THE ECWMF HAS
EXHIBITED MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY... SO FAVOR A GFS/ECMWF
COMPROMISE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE FASTER ECMWF. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS OVER NC EARLY MON MORNING BUT SHEARED
VORTICITY DIVING IN JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER NC FROM MID-LATE SUN EVENING (SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ONSET GIVEN THE INITIALLY HIGH CLOUD BASES AND DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER) WELL INTO MON... WITH LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA INTO LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
MON EVENING. THERE ISN`T A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS
SYSTEM... WITH PW EXPECTED TO REACH JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...
AND DESPITE IT BEING A PRETTY ROBUST TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW... THE
OVERALL LIFT IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG AS THE GREATEST UPPER DIVERGENCE
WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR SE. THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD NOT ONLY RESULT
IN FAIRLY LIGHT QPF BUT MAY ALSO HELP DETERMINE PTYPE. FORECAST
THICKNESSES INDICATE A PTYPE TRENDING FROM LIGHT RAIN TOWARD
INDETERMINANT (LIKELY MEANING LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED) BEFORE
TRENDING TOWARD A SNOW SOUNDING LATE MON. BUT THE MARGINAL LIFT AND
MOISTURE ABOVE THE -12C LEVEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A
PRIMARILY LIGHT-RAIN EVENT... ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY BE MIXED
WITH OR CHANGE TO WET FLAKES IF POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT LIFT CAN BE
ACHIEVED TO SATURATE THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE ALOFT. THIS OCCURRENCE
IS FAR FROM CERTAIN HOWEVER (ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES APPEAR BETTER NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER)... SO WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON A MOSTLY RAIN
EVENT WITH A SMALLER CHANCE OF INCONSEQUENTIAL WET SNOWFLAKES AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST MON AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WE MAY
ACTUALLY SEE A LULL IN ANY PRECIP MON AFTERNOON THEN RENEWED LIFT
MON EVENING AS THE STRONG NRN STREAM JET ACCELERATES TO THE SE WITH
A RESULTING UPTICK OF UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER NC. WILL BRING IN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE STARTING LATE SUN EVENING...
WITH SMALLER CHANCES SOUTH... CONTINUING THROUGH MON BEFORE TAPERING
DOWN MON NIGHT. EXPECT OVERALL AMOUNTS TO BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS... AS INDICATED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SREF MEMBERS. RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN MON... AND THICKNESSES AND
GUIDANCE SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH...
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. AS THE SURFACE LOW
INTENSIFIES MON NIGHT EAST OF NJ/SE OF CAPE COD... COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE INTO NC... AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY...
TUE: ADDITIONAL WEAK SHEARED VORTICITY WILL DIVE SE THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TUE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATING A WEAK ATTENDING SURFACE
LOW. THE GFS AND ITS FURTHER-NORTH VORTICITY TRACK GENERATES PATCHY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL NC TUE... BUT IT`S UNCLEAR IF WE`LL GET
ENOUGH RECOVERY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE AT THE
SURFACE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP UNDER 15%. WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
HOWEVER... AND THICKNESSES WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
WED-FRI: SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST WED... FOLLOWED BY EITHER FLAT WNW FLOW OR
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD
THEN TO OUR EAST... SO EXPECT A MODIFICATION OF TEMPS BY LATE WEEK
AS WE GET INTO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER WAVE SHIFTS BY TO OUR NORTH THU NIGHT/FRI... ACROSS IL/IN/OH
AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... WITH A
CORRESPONDING FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH CENTRAL NC FRI... POTENTIALLY
KNOCKING TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
-GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. MODELS HOLD ON TO PRECIPITATION THROUGH
18Z ALTHOUGH IT MAY PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLIER THAN THAT.
ONCE IT MOVES OUT. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY.
CEILINGS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IFR/LIFR THROUGH MID MORNING OR SO
BEFORE STEADILY IMPROVING BACK TO VFR. SOME SITES STARTING TO
SCATTER OUT ON THE LOWEST LEVELS AND MOVING UP TO MVFR CEILINGS.
SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES ARE
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE AND MANY SITES ALREADY AT 10SM. VISIBILITIES
MAY BOUNCE AROUND A LITTLE BUT SHOULD STAY AT MVFR LEVELS OR HIGHER.
WINDS WILL VARY FROM CALM TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME
VARYING DIRECTION AS WELL BUT WITH SOME NORTHERLY COMPONENT. BY
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO WESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 10 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AT 5-10 KTS.
LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG TERM AFTER THE CURRENT
SYSTEM MOVES OFF. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PRESENT A FEW
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
225 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THEN A CLIPPER LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 224 AM SATURDAY...
AS OF 6Z A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD PARALLELING I-95 INTO EASTERN GA. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW AND OUT TO SEA AROUND
THE TIDEWATER VA AREA. IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG THE COAST...BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. MOST
OF OUR CWA IS ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S NW TO SE AND DEWPOINTS RANGING THE SAME WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS.
WHATS LEFT OF THE CAD WEDGE HAS KEPT THESE SHORTWAVES CONFINED TO
EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE AND THAT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND FOR THE MOST PART OUT OF OUR AREA. EASTERN COUNTIES MAY
SEE SOME MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING BUT ANY POSSIBLE
THUNDER WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
THE MORE LIKELY MODE OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE TRIANGLE OUT TO THE TRIAD. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
COMPARED TO THOSE SEEN EARLIER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE BIG
FORECAST QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL RAIN LINGER INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE RAP HAS THE CAD WEDGE BREAKING DOWN BY ABOUT 10Z BUT
PRECIPITATION LINGERS ON UNTIL 18Z AND BEYOND. THIS 18Z TIME FRAME
IS ALSO BEING FAVORED BY THE OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND
LOOKING AT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...RADAR RETURNS THAT WOULD POSSIBLY
AFFECT OUR AREA EXTEND DOWN INTO THE FL PANHANDLE SO THAT IS NOT
UNREASONABLE. GUT FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE
EAST OF OUR AREA SO EXPECT ONLY ANOTHER TENTH OR TWO IN THE TRIAD
WITH UP TO A HALF OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN EXTREME EASTERN AREAS BUT
JUST OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH SEEMS MORE LIKELY.
LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST AS LONG AS PRECIPIATION IS AROUND WITH
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUT COMPLETELY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO FROM A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING TO MORE WESTERLY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THIS WIND SHIFT WILL COME SOME GUSTINESS
AS WELL WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 10KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS.
LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL BE TRICKY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BACK UNDER THE WEDGE...FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN LOW TO MIDDLE
30S FOR THE TRIAD. ALONG THE FRONT HOWEVER LOWS COULD BE AS HIGH AS
THE MID 40S. CLINTON IS STILL REPORTING 57 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS EVEN GOLDSBORO IS
REPORTING 48 DEGREES AT THIS TIME. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON A MUCH MORE EVEN TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR THE HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY...
SUN: EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF SUNDAY... AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS WEAKLY AND BRIEFLY INTO NC FROM THE SW WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN FROM
MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AHEAD OF THE STRONG CLIPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
START THE DAY CLOSE TO NORMAL AND RISE DECENTLY THROUGH THE DAY...
EQUATING TO HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
SUN NIGHT/MON/MON NIGHT: THE POTENT CLIPPER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM AROUND CINCINNATI EARLY SUN EVENING (THE 00Z GFS IS A TAD
SLOWER THAN THE NAM WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST BY NEARLY 6 HRS)
ACROSS SW VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL/NE NC THROUGH MON MORNING. THE GFS
HAS BEEN TRENDING DEEPER AND A TAD FASTER WHILE THE ECWMF HAS
EXHIBITED MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY... SO FAVOR A GFS/ECMWF
COMPROMISE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE FASTER ECMWF. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS OVER NC EARLY MON MORNING BUT SHEARED
VORTICITY DIVING IN JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER NC FROM MID-LATE SUN EVENING (SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ONSET GIVEN THE INITIALLY HIGH CLOUD BASES AND DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER) WELL INTO MON... WITH LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA INTO LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
MON EVENING. THERE ISN`T A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS
SYSTEM... WITH PW EXPECTED TO REACH JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...
AND DESPITE IT BEING A PRETTY ROBUST TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW... THE
OVERALL LIFT IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG AS THE GREATEST UPPER DIVERGENCE
WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR SE. THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD NOT ONLY RESULT
IN FAIRLY LIGHT QPF BUT MAY ALSO HELP DETERMINE PTYPE. FORECAST
THICKNESSES INDICATE A PTYPE TRENDING FROM LIGHT RAIN TOWARD
INDETERMINANT (LIKELY MEANING LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED) BEFORE
TRENDING TOWARD A SNOW SOUNDING LATE MON. BUT THE MARGINAL LIFT AND
MOISTURE ABOVE THE -12C LEVEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A
PRIMARILY LIGHT-RAIN EVENT... ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY BE MIXED
WITH OR CHANGE TO WET FLAKES IF POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT LIFT CAN BE
ACHIEVED TO SATURATE THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE ALOFT. THIS OCCURRENCE
IS FAR FROM CERTAIN HOWEVER (ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES APPEAR BETTER NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER)... SO WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON A MOSTLY RAIN
EVENT WITH A SMALLER CHANCE OF INCONSEQUENTIAL WET SNOWFLAKES AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST MON AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WE MAY
ACTUALLY SEE A LULL IN ANY PRECIP MON AFTERNOON THEN RENEWED LIFT
MON EVENING AS THE STRONG NRN STREAM JET ACCELERATES TO THE SE WITH
A RESULTING UPTICK OF UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER NC. WILL BRING IN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE STARTING LATE SUN EVENING...
WITH SMALLER CHANCES SOUTH... CONTINUING THROUGH MON BEFORE TAPERING
DOWN MON NIGHT. EXPECT OVERALL AMOUNTS TO BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS... AS INDICATED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SREF MEMBERS. RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN MON... AND THICKNESSES AND
GUIDANCE SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH...
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. AS THE SURFACE LOW
INTENSIFIES MON NIGHT EAST OF NJ/SE OF CAPE COD... COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE INTO NC... AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY...
TUE: ADDITIONAL WEAK SHEARED VORTICITY WILL DIVE SE THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TUE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATING A WEAK ATTENDING SURFACE
LOW. THE GFS AND ITS FURTHER-NORTH VORTICITY TRACK GENERATES PATCHY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL NC TUE... BUT IT`S UNCLEAR IF WE`LL GET
ENOUGH RECOVERY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE AT THE
SURFACE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP UNDER 15%. WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
HOWEVER... AND THICKNESSES WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
WED-FRI: SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST WED... FOLLOWED BY EITHER FLAT WNW FLOW OR
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD
THEN TO OUR EAST... SO EXPECT A MODIFICATION OF TEMPS BY LATE WEEK
AS WE GET INTO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER WAVE SHIFTS BY TO OUR NORTH THU NIGHT/FRI... ACROSS IL/IN/OH
AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... WITH A
CORRESPONDING FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH CENTRAL NC FRI... POTENTIALLY
KNOCKING TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
-GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING REMAINING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WE WILL BE ENTERING A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHERE DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT MODE OF PRECIPITATION. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AFTER 9Z FROM RALEIGH
EASTWARD TO THE COAST WITH DRIZZLE TO LIGHT RAIN STILL POSSIBLE IN
THE WEST. MODELS HOLD ON TO PRECIPITATION THROUGH 18Z ALTHOUGH IT
MAY PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLIER THAN THAT. ONCE IT MOVES OUT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
CEILINGS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IFR/LIFR THROUGH MID MORNING OR SO
BEFORE STEADILY IMPROVING BACK TO VFR. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR
BY LATE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES MEANWHILE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
IFR/MVFR RANGES THROUGH A SIMILAR TIME PERIOD BEFORE RETURNING TO
VFR. WITH PRECIPITATION AND WINDS STAYING UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT...DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A DENSE FOG THREAT.
WINDS WILL VARY FROM CALM TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME
VARYING DIRECTION AS WELL BUT WITH SOME NORTHERLY COMPONENT. BY
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO WESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 10 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AT 5-10 KTS.
LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG TERM AFTER THE CURRENT
SYSTEM MOVES OFF. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PRESENT A FEW
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
925 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
ENDED THE POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR RUNS. LEFT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
BASED ON CANADIAN AND US RADARS AND LATEST HRRR MODEL WILL TRIM
POPS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS HRRR MODEL TAKES THE LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF
THE CWA. BOOSTED WINDS ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
JET MAX ALOFT MOVES THOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST WEST MONDAY...
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE MT/ND BORDER. THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...BUT
NOT ZERO. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE WINTRY MIX IMPACTS MENTION IN
THE HWO FOR THIS UPDATE.
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR
SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED.
DRY/WARM AIR IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION
MONDAY. SOME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF
BEING BROKEN...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FOLLOWING
TABLE IS A RUN DOWN OF THE FORECAST HIGHS AND ASSOCIATED RECORD
HIGHS FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LOCATION MON HI TEMP MON HI TEMP
FORECAST RECORD
DICKINSON 53 49 IN 1931
WILLISTON 47 47 IN 2006
BISMARCK 48 52 IN 1942
MINOT 44 58 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN 42 52 IN 1990
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CENTER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN AHEAD
OF A SURFACE LOW. THIS COMBINED WITH WEST...DOWNSLOPING WINDS...MINIMAL
OR NONEXISTENT SNOWPACK AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
THE 12 UTC ECMWF HAS 13-14 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 850MB WHILE THE GFS
AND NAM SHOW CLOSER TO 11-12. IF THESE TEMPERATURES CAN MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. IT ISN`T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW AREAS REACH 60.
LATER THIS WEEK WE WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
A TROUGH SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST
MODELS TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
THIS WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MAY NOT COOL DOWN AS MUCH AS INITIALLY THOUGHT EARLIER.
BUT...THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN. IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH SEVERAL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATER
THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
MVFR STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT NOW MOVING EAST INTO
MINNESOTA. VFR EXPECTED WILL FOR REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. DRY
SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
06Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
824 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
20-22DBZ RADAR RETURNS OVER LANGDON-CAVALIER-WALHALLA PRODUCING
NOTHING FROM VARIOUS ON THE GROUND SPOTTERS AND FROM THE AWOS`S.
LOTS OF DRY AIR BENEATH THE MID CLOUD DECK TO OVERCOME. HRRR STIL
SHOWS SOME PRECIP FORMING OUT OF NOTHING NR SK/MB BORDER REGION
AND MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BUT PROBLEM IS NOTHING IS THERE AND
SKIES ARE CLEARING IN THAT AREA. SO DISREGARDED. BASED ON THAT
REMOVED WEATHER FOR DVL REGION TO VALLEY CITY (COORD WITH
BIS/ABR). KEPT A 20 POP JUST IN CASE FOR THE RRV BUT HIGHLY DOUBT
ANYTHING WILL FALL. EVEN IN LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION WOULD APPEAR
LOOKING UPSTREAM THAT MAIN SNOW WILL TRACK A TAD EAST AND IMPACT
MORE KENORA-DRYDEN ONT INTO NE MN. WILL LEAVE POPS THERE AS IS
UNTIL MORE CLEAR DATA BECOMES AVBL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT THEN TEMPS. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES.
FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS AND A SPEED MAX
WILL MOVE IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FA...WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...SOME FREEZING RAIN OR A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR THIS
AND MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED WEATHER STORY. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT...EVEN WITH TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR FREEZING LATE WITH INCREASING S/SW WINDS SHIFTING WEST LATE.
ON MONDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN NW MN DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND DRY DAY WITH W/NW WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
ON TUE...EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY WITH THE WARM WEATHER
CONTINUING. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 40 WEST INTO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE. IF THERE IS MORE INSOLATION THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED...TEMPS COULD BE EVEN WARMER.
ON WED...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHER
AREAS. WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THE WARM
ENVIRONMENT...BUT FOR NOW WON/T MENTION BUT MONITOR THREAT. IT
WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN AREAS.
FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL
START OUT WARM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW WED NIGHT BEHIND A COOL FRONT...THEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY NEXT
SAT...THAT COULD MEAN AN END TO THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
A TOUGH ONE TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS PRESENT IN WARM ADV ZONE OVER FAR
ERN ND/RRV. SEEING THOUGH SOME CLEARING OF MVFR DECK REPLACED BY
MID CLOUD INTO DVL BASIN AND JAMESTOWN. WITH LOW MOVING WELL NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA VFR CLOUDS REPLACING MVFR CLOUDS MAY WELL
CONTINUE. DID PLAY IT WORSE IN THE TAFS...BUT AFTER SEEING
UPSTREAM OBS IN MANITOBA DO THE SAME THING (DAUPHIN, BRANDON)
CONFIDENCE A BIT HIGHER THAN A TREND TO A VFR DECK WILL OCCUR INTO
GFK-FAR-TVF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TONIGHT AND TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY 15-25 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
714 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE
GROUND. ECHOES ON RADAR MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA INTO
NE ND. BUT ALSO QUITE THE DRY LAYER NR 850 MB..SO QUITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THIS
MAKES DETERMINING WHAT IS REACHING THE GROUND VS NOT VIA RADAR
QUITE DIFFICULT. SO FAR UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA BRANDON HAS HAD
NOTHING...AND NO OTHER REPORTS. BUT SUSPECT SOME FLURRIES AT LEAST
IN A FEW SPOTS AS 25DBZ ECHO BAND MOVING SOUTHEAST. RAP HAS BACKED
OFF ON MUCH IN ERN ND NOW TONIGHT....HRRR HAS ACTIVITY AT 00Z IN
SE SASK NR ESTEVAN AND MOVES IT SOUTHEAST BUT PROBLEM IS NO
ECHOES IN THAT AREA NOW. COORD WITH BIS...LEFT POPS PRETTY MUCH
ALONE THIS EVE BUT DID DRY THINGS OUT AFTER 06Z IN DVL BASIN AS
ANY THREAT OF PRECIP MOVES SOUTHEAST. ALSO UPSTREAM OBS IN
MANITOBA SUGGEST MOST OF THE SNOW IS QUITE FAR NORTH AND LATEST
RAP HAS MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING JUST EAST OF MINNESOTA PART OF
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT THEN TEMPS. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES.
FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS AND A SPEED MAX
WILL MOVE IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FA...WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...SOME FREEZING RAIN OR A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR THIS
AND MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED WEATHER STORY. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT...EVEN WITH TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR FREEZING LATE WITH INCREASING S/SW WINDS SHIFTING WEST LATE.
ON MONDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN NW MN DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND DRY DAY WITH W/NW WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
ON TUE...EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY WITH THE WARM WEATHER
CONTINUING. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 40 WEST INTO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE. IF THERE IS MORE INSOLATION THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED...TEMPS COULD BE EVEN WARMER.
ON WED...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHER
AREAS. WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THE WARM
ENVIRONMENT...BUT FOR NOW WON/T MENTION BUT MONITOR THREAT. IT
WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN AREAS.
FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL
START OUT WARM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW WED NIGHT BEHIND A COOL FRONT...THEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY NEXT
SAT...THAT COULD MEAN AN END TO THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
A TOUGH ONE TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS PRESENT IN WARM ADV ZONE OVER FAR
ERN ND/RRV. SEEING THOUGH SOME CLEARING OF MVFR DECK REPLACED BY
MID CLOUD INTO DVL BASIN AND JAMESTOWN. WITH LOW MOVING WELL NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA VFR CLOUDS REPLACING MVFR CLOUDS MAY WELL
CONTINUE. DID PLAY IT WORSE IN THE TAFS...BUT AFTER SEEING
UPSTREAM OBS IN MANITOBA DO THE SAME THING (DAUPHIN, BRANDON)
CONFIDENCE A BIT HIGHER THAN A TREND TO A VFR DECK WILL OCCUR INTO
GFK-FAR-TVF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TONIGHT AND TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY 15-25 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
701 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
BASED ON CANADIAN AND US RADARS AND LATEST HRRR MODEL WILL TRIM
POPS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS HRRR MODEL TAKES THE LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF
THE CWA. BOOSTED WINDS ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
JET MAX ALOFT MOVES THOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST WEST MONDAY...
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE MT/ND BORDER. THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...BUT
NOT ZERO. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE WINTRY MIX IMPACTS MENTION IN
THE HWO FOR THIS UPDATE.
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR
SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED.
DRY/WARM AIR IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION
MONDAY. SOME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF
BEING BROKEN...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FOLLOWING
TABLE IS A RUN DOWN OF THE FORECAST HIGHS AND ASSOCIATED RECORD
HIGHS FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LOCATION MON HI TEMP MON HI TEMP
FORECAST RECORD
DICKINSON 53 49 IN 1931
WILLISTON 47 47 IN 2006
BISMARCK 48 52 IN 1942
MINOT 44 58 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN 42 52 IN 1990
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CENTER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN AHEAD
OF A SURFACE LOW. THIS COMBINED WITH WEST...DOWNSLOPING WINDS...MINIMAL
OR NONEXISTENT SNOWPACK AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
THE 12 UTC ECMWF HAS 13-14 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 850MB WHILE THE GFS
AND NAM SHOW CLOSER TO 11-12. IF THESE TEMPERATURES CAN MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. IT ISN`T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW AREAS REACH 60.
LATER THIS WEEK WE WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
A TROUGH SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST
MODELS TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
THIS WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MAY NOT COOL DOWN AS MUCH AS INITIALLY THOUGHT EARLIER.
BUT...THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN. IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH SEVERAL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATER
THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
MVFR STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT NOW MOVING EAST INTO
MINNESOTA. VFR EXPECTED WILL FOR REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. DRY
SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
06Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1259 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA CONTINUES TO NOSE COLD
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM LIGNITE TO WASHBURN TO LINTON MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...THEN ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WESTHOPE AND MINOT ARE ALREADY REPORTING LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION.
ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER WAVE ARE
SLOWLY ROTATING SOUTH OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS FROM THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE MINIMAL...EVEN THOUGH WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE FREEZING RAIN MENTION AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. FURTHERMORE...THE
DEEPER LAYER OF COLDER AIR NOSING SOUTH OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIP TYPES IN THE RAIN/SNOW REALM
DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE OF THE ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM THE SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER FALLS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1032 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SO FAR AIR TEMPERATURES UNDER THE PRECIPITATION CANOPY
HAVE BEEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH A LIQUID RAIN BEING
REPORTED. HOWEVER...ROAD SURFACES ARE AT THE FREEZING MARK IN SOME
SPOTS LEADING TO THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN.
ADJUSTED THE SPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POSSIBILITY. ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
OBS/TRENDS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF RAIN MOVES EAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ALL SNOW AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE CLIPPER CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD SO ONLY ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE
WORDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
GIVEN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
OVERNIGHT...ROAD TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THE MORNING...DESPITE RISING SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THUS...EXPANDED THE FREEZING RAIN MENTION TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...DID EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY GIVEN THE 09
THROUGH 11 UTC RAP SOUNDING ITERATIONS AT BAKER AND DICKINSON AND
THE 06 UTC GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. ALL DEPICT 45-55 KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER WITH NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH 800 MB.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING.
FINALLY...THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS...03 UTC SREF AND 00 UTC ECMWF ALL
SUGGEST HIGHS REMAINING ONLY IN THE 30S TODAY. THIS EQUATES TO A
BIT MORE SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN THIS AFTERNOON AREA WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
WEST...RAIN AND SNOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WEST AND CENTRAL...AND
GUSTY WINDS SOUTHWEST TODAY.
CURRENTLY...POTENT LEAD S/WV IMPULSE MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA AND WILL ENTER INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA 10-12Z. WE REMAIN
CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN DESPITE
AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S OVER WESTERN OBSERVATION SITES.
ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES ARE SUB-FREEZING SO ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL
LIKELY FREEZE CREATING ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS UNTIL SOLAR RADIATION
WARMS THE ROAD SURFACES QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. WE WILL FOR NOW
HIGHLIGHT THIS IMPACT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
NEXT EMBEDDED IMPULSE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
THIS MORNING WITH SUPPORT ALOFT FROM UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALONG TO EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL
ERODE AS THE DAY GOES ON SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE FREEZING RAIN
PROBLEMS AFTER SUNSET WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
MAINLY SNOW THIS EVENING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT
COOL...A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A MIX WILL BE
NORTH WHERE COOLING ALOFT OCCURS EARLIER...AND THE MOST FAVORABLE
AREA FOR ALL RAIN WILL BE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE FORECAST. AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AND INTO
THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA WITH SNOW CHANCES DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
BESIDES PRECIPITATION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY SOUTHWEST. BUFKIT INDICATES
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THESE STRONG WINDS TOUCHING MY FAR SOUTHWEST. 12Z GFS
STRONGER WITH THE WINDS AND NAM WEAKER SO SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR BOWMAN AND ADAMS COUNTY FOR NOW
AS THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PEAK
WINDS IN MY AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH A POTENTIAL TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REMAINING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. THE 00 UTC
NAEFS DEPICTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 90-97TH PERCENTILES
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED...WITH
PERHAPS LOWERS 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO RECORD
HIGHS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO A DEEPENING CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND AND THE TRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL LINGER OVER KMOT-KBIS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER KMOT-KBIS-KJMS. PRECIPITATION WILL END
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1032 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SO FAR AIR TEMPERATURES UNDER THE PRECIPITATION CANOPY
HAVE BEEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH A LIQUID RAIN BEING
REPORTED. HOWEVER...ROAD SURFACES ARE AT THE FREEZING MARK IN SOME
SPOTS LEADING TO THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN.
ADJUSTED THE SPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POSSIBILITY. ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
OBS/TRENDS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF RAIN MOVES EAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ALL SNOW AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE CLIPPER CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD SO ONLY ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE
WORDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
GIVEN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
OVERNIGHT...ROAD TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THE MORNING...DESPITE RISING SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THUS...EXPANDED THE FREEZING RAIN MENTION TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...DID EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY GIVEN THE 09
THROUGH 11 UTC RAP SOUNDING ITERATIONS AT BAKER AND DICKINSON AND
THE 06 UTC GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. ALL DEPICT 45-55 KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER WITH NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH 800 MB.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING.
FINALLY...THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS...03 UTC SREF AND 00 UTC ECMWF ALL
SUGGEST HIGHS REMAINING ONLY IN THE 30S TODAY. THIS EQUATES TO A
BIT MORE SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN THIS AFTERNOON AREA WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
WEST...RAIN AND SNOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WEST AND CENTRAL...AND
GUSTY WINDS SOUTHWEST TODAY.
CURRENTLY...POTENT LEAD S/WV IMPULSE MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA AND WILL ENTER INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA 10-12Z. WE REMAIN
CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN DESPITE
AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S OVER WESTERN OBSERVATION SITES.
ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES ARE SUB-FREEZING SO ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL
LIKELY FREEZE CREATING ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS UNTIL SOLAR RADIATION
WARMS THE ROAD SURFACES QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. WE WILL FOR NOW
HIGHLIGHT THIS IMPACT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
NEXT EMBEDDED IMPULSE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
THIS MORNING WITH SUPPORT ALOFT FROM UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALONG TO EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL
ERODE AS THE DAY GOES ON SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE FREEZING RAIN
PROBLEMS AFTER SUNSET WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
MAINLY SNOW THIS EVENING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT
COOL...A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A MIX WILL BE
NORTH WHERE COOLING ALOFT OCCURS EARLIER...AND THE MOST FAVORABLE
AREA FOR ALL RAIN WILL BE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE FORECAST. AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AND INTO
THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA WITH SNOW CHANCES DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
BESIDES PRECIPITATION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY SOUTHWEST. BUFKIT INDICATES
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THESE STRONG WINDS TOUCHING MY FAR SOUTHWEST. 12Z GFS
STRONGER WITH THE WINDS AND NAM WEAKER SO SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR BOWMAN AND ADAMS COUNTY FOR NOW
AS THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PEAK
WINDS IN MY AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH A POTENTIAL TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REMAINING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. THE 00 UTC
NAEFS DEPICTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 90-97TH PERCENTILES
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED...WITH
PERHAPS LOWERS 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO RECORD
HIGHS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO A DEEPENING CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND AND THE TRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BEGIN AS A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX IN THE
FAR WEST BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. RAIN WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A
-RASN MIX THEN ALL SNOW FROM 00-06Z SUNDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING
KDIK TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
655 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
GIVEN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
OVERNIGHT...ROAD TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THE MORNING...DESPITE RISING SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THUS...EXPANDED THE FREEZING RAIN MENTION TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...DID EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY GIVEN THE 09
THROUGH 11 UTC RAP SOUNDING ITERATIONS AT BAKER AND DICKINSON AND
THE 06 UTC GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. ALL DEPICT 45-55 KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER WITH NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH 800 MB.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING.
FINALLY...THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS...03 UTC SREF AND 00 UTC ECMWF ALL
SUGGEST HIGHS REMAINING ONLY IN THE 30S TODAY. THIS EQUATES TO A
BIT MORE SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN THIS AFTERNOON AREA WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
WEST...RAIN AND SNOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WEST AND CENTRAL...AND
GUSTY WINDS SOUTHWEST TODAY.
CURRENTLY...POTENT LEAD S/WV IMPULSE MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA AND WILL ENTER INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA 10-12Z. WE REMAIN
CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN DESPITE
AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S OVER WESTERN OBSERVATION SITES.
ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES ARE SUB-FREEZING SO ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL
LIKELY FREEZE CREATING ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS UNTIL SOLAR RADIATION
WARMS THE ROAD SURFACES QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. WE WILL FOR NOW
HIGHLIGHT THIS IMPACT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
NEXT EMBEDDED IMPULSE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
THIS MORNING WITH SUPPORT ALOFT FROM UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALONG TO EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL
ERODE AS THE DAY GOES ON SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE FREEZING RAIN
PROBLEMS AFTER SUNSET WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
MAINLY SNOW THIS EVENING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT
COOL...A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A MIX WILL BE
NORTH WHERE COOLING ALOFT OCCURS EARLIER...AND THE MOST FAVORABLE
AREA FOR ALL RAIN WILL BE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE FORECAST. AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AND INTO
THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA WITH SNOW CHANCES DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
BESIDES PRECIPITATION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY SOUTHWEST. BUFKIT INDICATES
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THESE STRONG WINDS TOUCHING MY FAR SOUTHWEST. 12Z GFS
STRONGER WITH THE WINDS AND NAM WEAKER SO SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR BOWMAN AND ADAMS COUNTY FOR NOW
AS THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PEAK
WINDS IN MY AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH A POTENTIAL TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REMAINING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. THE 00 UTC
NAEFS DEPICTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 90-97TH PERCENTILES
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED...WITH
PERHAPS LOWERS 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO RECORD
HIGHS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO A DEEPENING CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND AND THE TRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BEGIN AS A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX IN THE
FAR WEST BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. RAIN WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A
-RASN MIX THEN ALL SNOW FROM 00-06Z SUNDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING
KDIK TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS A PORTION OF NW MN FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS...USING THE HRRR/RAP AS GUIDANCE
FOR TIMING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SOME
FLAKES WILL FALL FROM THE SKY...NOW JUST A MATTER OF HOW MUCH AND
EXACT LOCATION. FOR NOW...HAVE LIKELY POPS...WITH 0.5-1.0 INCH OF
SNOW. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER WAVE INDUCING 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THIS LOCATION.
REGARDING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT EVENT...00Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED BANDING
POTENTIAL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE REGION. MOST AREAS (EXCEPT THE FAR
WESTERN FA) SHOULD RECEIVE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER AMOUNTS DOES EXIST. HOW MUCH HIGHER
COULD THESE AMOUNTS BE IS THE DILEMMA. 00Z NAM12 SUGGESTS AROUND
0.40 INCHES QPF...AND MOST OTHER HI-RES SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
SOMETHING SIMILAR. SNOW RATIOS EXPECTED TO BE 10:1-12:1...SO THE
GENERAL 1-3 INCHES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-5 INCHES ACROSS AN
ISOLATED AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION. WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO
DEFINE THIS HIGHER SNOW AREA YET...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO WAIT FOR
THE ACTUAL BAND TO DEVELOP. INCOMING RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THE NAM PLACEMENT. HAVE UPDATED THE HWO TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS...HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS REMAINS
FURTHER WEST AND THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SUPPORT A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST IS TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE HAD POOR CONSISTENCY WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN
SOLNS AS WELL AS MODEL TO MODEL COMPARISONS. AS A RESULT
CONFIDENCE ON ITS TRACK AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND
REMAINS IN QUESTION. A BLEND OF MODELS SOLNS...GEM/EC/AND NAM HAVE
BEEN USED FOR THIS FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS IS FARTHER WEST WITH ITS
TRACK THUS IS OUTLIER.
TONIGHT WEST WINDS WILL LESSEN AND SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER NW MN WHERE SOME -SN IS
POSSIBLE WITH A SATURATED COLUMN AND WEAK LIFT. LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO INITIATE CHC POPS IN THE DVL BSN AND N
RRV LATE MORNING AND WIDE SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE IN
THE AFTN. STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE STRONGER THAN THE LAST FEW
CLIPPER SYSTEMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A 2 TO 4C WARM LAYER QUICKLY
COOLING SATURDAY AFTN ACROSS SW ND. MAKING A SHORT PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIP POSSIBLE HOWEVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT WILL BE ALL
SNOW. MOST INTENSE SNOW RATES WILL BE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH SNOW LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NO
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES EXPECTED WITH WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20MPH RANGE.
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING BANDS OF 2 TO 3 TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF TOTAL QPF. PLACEMENT OF COURSE THE CONCERN...THINKING WIDE
SPREAD ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
SUNDAY TO MONDAY WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO THE WAA INDUCED BY THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. A LIGHT
BRIEF PERIOD OF WAA PRECIP POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. WINDS BRISK
OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY RISING TEMPS INTO MONDAY MORNING. WESTERLY
SFC WINDS ON MONDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C FOR THE AREA
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN
THE 30S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
OUR EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...DEPICTING A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM
RIDGE AND BROAD EAST COAST TROUGH. AMPLIFIED PATTERN TURNS TO A
MORE ZONAL REGIME LATER IN THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS FALL...BUT THE
TRULY ARCTIC AIR WILL STILL BE LOCKED UP NORTH FOR A LITTLE WHILE
LONGER. LACK OF ANY IDENTIFIABLE SHORT WAVES TRANSLATES TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR TUE THROUGH THU. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW WILL DRIVE 850MB TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE ZERO LATE TUE INTO WEDNESDAY...MAKING THESE THE
WARMEST DAYS. STRONGER NW WINDS BEHIND THE LOW THURS WILL USHER IN
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL...THEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER STILL TO END
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
MUCH OF THE REGION HAS CLEAR SKY. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH...TAKING OVER THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TAF SITES BY LATER
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/WJB
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1020 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL SWING THROUGH KENTUCKY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WEDNESDAY...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER FOR MID WEEK BEFORE
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RAIN/SNOW LINE CONTINUES TO MAKE IT WAY SLOWLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE 1304 1000-850MB THICKNESS FROM THE RAP IS
HANDLING THE CHANGEOVER NICELY. STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN
THE PCPN IN THE WHITEWATER VALLEY AND THE BACKEDGE OF APPROACHING
NE MERCER COUNTY. ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS IN THE PCPN FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. PRETTY MUCH KEPT THE SAME SNOW NUMBERS AND CHANGEOVER
TIMING. DID SPEED UP THE ENDING OF THE SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
COLDER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE N A LITTLE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.
KNOCKED A DEGREE OR SO OFF PREVIOUS LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BECAUSE OF THE AMPLIFICATION AND THEREFOR SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW...HAVE LINGERED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A LITTLE IN AREAS
S/E OF COLUMBUS WITH ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z AS WELL AS
ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNTIES. SHOULD REMAIN A RUSH HOUR IMPACT IN
ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS.
LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM IN MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA...THEN WEAK SFC RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE WEST IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. ONLY LOCATION TO
RECEIVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE IN THE FAR NW AS MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM ADVANCING WEAK S/WV FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO A WEAK
S/WV DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AS SUCH...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE MAY JUST GRAZE OUR FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO AFFECT THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER AND SHARPER WITH THE SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER.
HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE
BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MIXED PCPN
(-FZRA/-PL/-SN) EARLY ON BEFORE IT BECOMES RAIN/SNOW MIXED NORTH AND
RAIN SOUTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THIS IS FOUR DAYS OUT
AND IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE CHANGING THERMAL FIELDS EVEN IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE CONTINUED WITH RAIN/SNOW WORDING ATTM. PCPN SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.
LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH PUSHES AN ARCTIC FRONT
INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. WILL FORECAST
A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE TAFS. RAIN-SNOW LINE WAS
NORTH OF KDAY-KCMH LINE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN BUT HAS SAGGED SOUTH
OF THEM IN THE PAST FEW HOURS CHANGING THE PCPN TO SNOW. NRN TAFS
WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS OR SO.
FOR THE SRN TAFS...THE 1000-850MB CRITICAL THICKNESS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVE IT REACHING CVG-LUK-KILN AROUND 05Z. RAIN WHICH IS
CURRENTLY FALLING IN THOSE LOCATIONS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE ENDING.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO MVFR AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 08Z IN THE W....BUT NOT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z IN THE E.
WINDS WILL TURN NLY AT 13-15KT AND WILL GUSTS 20-25KT OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD AIR WORKS IN FORM THE N. GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY.
LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING...SCATTERING OUT IN THE WRN TAFS AROUND 18Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-
051>055-060>064-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ056-065-
073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
847 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY. CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. TURNING COLDER
MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY GRIDS...OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS REACHED CRW TO CKB AS OF 07Z...WITH MAINLY
RAIN TO THE E...SAVE FOR HIGH RIDGES WHERE A MIX OF FRZ RAIN AND
SNOW WAS OBSERVED. SNOW AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH WHERE THE WINTER WX ADV CONT
UNTIL 09Z. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THAT A FEW HRS ALONG OH RIVER AND NE
KY AS THE HRRR STILL HAS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION BAND OVER THOSE
LOCALES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A COATING TO AN INCH E OF THE OH
RIVER THRU EARLY MORNING HRS. THIS GOES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
WILL HANDLE THE AREAS OF WV/SW VA NOT IN AN ADV WITH SPS FOR
DEFORMATION BAND AS IT WORKS THRU. MODELS SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING OF
THIS BAND AS IT WORKS THRU WV AND SW VA ZONES.
WIND DOWN THE SNOW BY 15Z ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LINGERING LOW
STRATUS STUBBORN TO LIFT ELSEWHERE BENEATH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. STILL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SCT OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TIGHT CLUSTER AMONGST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TDY...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO STRAY.
WILL BE TRACKING A FAST MOVING UPPER S/W TROF SWINGING THRU
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND TEMPS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS N ZONES AND IN THE N MOUNTAINS. KEPT A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE N MOUNTAINS WITH THIS. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD
DIP BACK TO OR BELOW FRZ...WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN DIPPING WELL INTO
THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY PULLING WARM AIR
NORTHWARD INTO REGION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THAT MEANS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD SEE A COLD RAIN...WITH SNOW MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL OHIO AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE COLDER AIR LAGS CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE CLIPPER...WAITING UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR OVERTURNING THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LIGHT SNOW REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...LIMITING ANY UPSLOPE.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER ON TUESDAY AND MODELS ARE SHOWING
LOTS OF 700 MB LIFT. THIS TIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THERMAL 850 MB TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THAN GUIDANCE AND WPC MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE FLUFF...MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...DRY WITH WARMING
ALOFT WEDNESDAY...MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THURSDAY.
NEXT FRONT STILL TIMED FOR LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. THEN
DRIER TURNING SOMEWHAT COLDER DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN BOTH CIGS AND VSBY WILL
CONTINUE THRU 14Z FOR THE TERMINALS. HAVE SOME TEMPOS IN TO
HANDLE OCCASIONAL DROP IN VSBY BELOW 1SM THIS MORNING AS MODERATE
BAND OF SNOW TRAVERSES THE AREA.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BEHIND THE DEFORMATION BAND. WHILE
VSBY WILL IMPROVE INTO MVFR AND EVENTUAL VFR AS THE SN ENDS...CIGS
WILL STAY IN THE IFR/VLIFR RANGE THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY LIFTING
AND SCT TO BKN MVFR BY MIDDAY...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU TONIGHT WITH
SCT SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS THE N TERMINALS. EXPECT SOME MVFR STRATUS
TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AMID THE SHSN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING THE IMPROVING CIGS/VSBY MAY VARY A FEW
HRS THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CRW CONSISTENCY M L L M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H M M H M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE AREA WIDE IN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...SL/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
605 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY. CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. TURNING COLDER
MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE ADV FOR THE NE KY COUNTIES AS WELL AS A FEW SE OH AND
W WV ONES UNTIL 11Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND IS
WORKING THRU THE ADV AREAS RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THOSE
AREAS BY 11Z. EXPECT REDUCED VSBY WITHIN A MODERATE BAND OF SNOW
AS THIS MOVES THRU AND AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO ONE INCH. STILL
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL WEAKEN ONCE INTO C WV.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS REACHED CRW TO CKB AS OF 07Z...WITH MAINLY
RAIN TO THE E...SAVE FOR HIGH RIDGES WHERE A MIX OF FRZ RAIN AND
SNOW WAS OBSERVED. SNOW AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH WHERE THE WINTER WX ADV CONT
UNTIL 09Z. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THAT A FEW HRS ALONG OH RIVER AND NE
KY AS THE HRRR STILL HAS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION BAND OVER THOSE
LOCALES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A COATING TO AN INCH E OF THE OH
RIVER THRU EARLY MORNING HRS. THIS GOES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
WILL HANDLE THE AREAS OF WV/SW VA NOT IN AN ADV WITH SPS FOR
DEFORMATION BAND AS IT WORKS THRU. MODELS SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING OF
THIS BAND AS IT WORKS THRU WV AND SW VA ZONES.
WIND DOWN THE SNOW BY 15Z ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LINGERING LOW
STRATUS STUBBORN TO LIFT ELSEWHERE BENEATH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. STILL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SCT OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TIGHT CLUSTER AMONGST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TDY...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO STRAY.
WILL BE TRACKING A FAST MOVING UPPER S/W TROF SWINGING THRU
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND TEMPS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS N ZONES AND IN THE N MOUNTAINS. KEPT A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE N MOUNTAINS WITH THIS. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD
DIP BACK TO OR BELOW FRZ...WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN DIPPING WELL INTO
THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY PULLING WARM AIR
NORTHWARD INTO REGION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THAT MEANS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD SEE A COLD RAIN...WITH SNOW MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL OHIO AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE COLDER AIR LAGS CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE CLIPPER...WAITING UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR OVERTURNING THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LIGHT SNOW REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...LIMITING ANY UPSLOPE.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER ON TUESDAY AND MODELS ARE SHOWING
LOTS OF 700 MB LIFT. THIS TIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THERMAL 850 MB TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THAN GUIDANCE AND WPC MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE FLUFF...MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...DRY WITH WARMING
ALOFT WEDNESDAY...MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THURSDAY.
NEXT FRONT STILL TIMED FOR LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. THEN
DRIER TURNING SOMEWHAT COLDER DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN BOTH CIGS AND VSBY WILL
CONTINUE THRU 14Z FOR THE TERMINALS. HAVE SOME TEMPOS IN TO
HANDLE OCCASIONAL DROP IN VSBY BELOW 1SM THIS MORNING AS MODERATE
BAND OF SNOW TRAVERSES THE AREA.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BEHIND THE DEFORMATION BAND. WHILE
VSBY WILL IMPROVE INTO MVFR AND EVENTUAL VFR AS THE SN ENDS...CIGS
WILL STAY IN THE IFR/VLIFR RANGE THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY LIFTING
AND SCT TO BKN MVFR BY MIDDAY...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU TONIGHT WITH
SCT SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS THE N TERMINALS. EXPECT SOME MVFR STRATUS
TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AMID THE SHSN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING THE IMPROVING CIGS/VSBY MAY VARY A FEW
HRS THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H L L H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M L L L L L H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE AREA WIDE IN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
416 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY. CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. TURNING COLDER
MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE ADV FOR THE NE KY COUNTIES AS WELL AS A FEW SE OH AND
W WV ONES UNTIL 11Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND IS
WORKING THRU THE ADV AREAS RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THOSE
AREAS BY 11Z. EXPECT REDUCED VSBY WITHIN A MODERATE BAND OF SNOW
AS THIS MOVES THRU AND AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO ONE INCH. STILL
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL WEAKEN ONCE INTO C WV.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS REACHED CRW TO CKB AS OF 07Z...WITH MAINLY
RAIN TO THE E...SAVE FOR HIGH RIDGES WHERE A MIX OF FRZ RAIN AND
SNOW WAS OBSERVED. SNOW AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH WHERE THE WINTER WX ADV CONT
UNTIL 09Z. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THAT A FEW HRS ALONG OH RIVER AND NE
KY AS THE HRRR STILL HAS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION BAND OVER THOSE
LOCALES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A COATING TO AN INCH E OF THE OH
RIVER THRU EARLY MORNING HRS. THIS GOES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
WILL HANDLE THE AREAS OF WV/SW VA NOT IN AN ADV WITH SPS FOR
DEFORMATION BAND AS IT WORKS THRU. MODELS SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING OF
THIS BAND AS IT WORKS THRU WV AND SW VA ZONES.
WIND DOWN THE SNOW BY 15Z ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LINGERING LOW
STRATUS STUBBORN TO LIFT ELSEWHERE BENEATH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. STILL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SCT OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TIGHT CLUSTER AMONGST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TDY...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO STRAY.
WILL BE TRACKING A FAST MOVING UPPER S/W TROF SWINGING THRU
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND TEMPS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS N ZONES AND IN THE N MOUNTAINS. KEPT A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE N MOUNTAINS WITH THIS. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD
DIP BACK TO OR BELOW FRZ...WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN DIPPING WELL INTO
THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY PULLING WARM AIR
NORTHWARD INTO REGION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THAT MEANS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD SEE A COLD RAIN...WITH SNOW MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL OHIO AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE COLDER AIR LAGS CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE CLIPPER...WAITING UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR OVERTURNING THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LIGHT SNOW REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...LIMITING ANY UPSLOPE.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER ON TUESDAY AND MODELS ARE SHOWING
LOTS OF 700 MB LIFT. THIS TIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THERMAL 850 MB TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THAN GUIDANCE AND WPC MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE FLUFF...MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...DRY WITH WARMING
ALOFT WEDNESDAY...MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THURSDAY.
NEXT FRONT STILL TIMED FOR LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. THEN
DRIER TURNING SOMEWHAT COLDER DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN BOTH CIGS AND VSBY WILL
CONTINUE THRU 12Z FOR THE TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION WILL FINISH
SWITCHING TO SN FOR THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS BY 09Z. HAVE SOME
TEMPOS IN TO HANDLE OCCASIONAL DROP IN VSBY BELOW 1SM...OTHERWISE
CARRYING PREDOMINATE 1SM AND LIFR/VLIFR CIGS FOR THE TERMINALS
EXCEPT IFR KEKN/KBKW.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BEHIND THE DEFORMATION BAND...AS THE
DEFORMATION BAND TRACKS THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE
VSBY WILL IMPROVE INTO MVFR AND EVENTUAL VFR AS THE SN ENDS...CIGS
WILL STAY IN THE IFR/VLIFR RANGE THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY LIFTING
AND SCT TO BKN MVFR BY MIDDAY...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU TONIGHT WITH
SCT SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS THE N TERMINALS. EXPECT SOME MVFR STRATUS
TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AMID THE SHSN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING THE IMPROVING CIGS/VSBY MAY VARY A FEW
HRS THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 01/24/15
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H L L H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H L L L L L H M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L L H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE AREA WIDE IN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ007-008-017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ086-087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
332 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY. CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. TURNING COLDER
MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS REACHED CRW TO CKB AS OF 07Z...WITH MAINLY
RAIN TO THE E...SAVE FOR HIGH RIDGES WHERE A MIX OF FRZ RAIN AND
SNOW WAS OBSERVED. SNOW AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH WHERE THE WINTER WX ADV CONT
UNTIL 09Z. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THAT A FEW HRS ALONG OH RIVER AND NE
KY AS THE HRRR STILL HAS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION BAND OVER THOSE
LOCALES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A COATING TO AN INCH E OF THE OH
RIVER THRU EARLY MORNING HRS. THIS GOES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
WILL HANDLE THE AREAS OF WV/SW VA NOT IN AN ADV WITH SPS FOR
DEFORMATION BAND AS IT WORKS THRU. MODELS SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING OF
THIS BAND AS IT WORKS THRU WV AND SW VA ZONES.
WIND DOWN THE SNOW BY 15Z ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LINGERING LOW
STRATUS STUBBORN TO LIFT ELSEWHERE BENEATH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. STILL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SCT OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TIGHT CLUSTER AMONGST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TDY...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO STRAY.
WILL BE TRACKING A FAST MOVING UPPER S/W TROF SWINGING THRU
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND TEMPS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS N ZONES AND IN THE N MOUNTAINS. KEPT A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE N MOUNTAINS WITH THIS. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD
DIP BACK TO OR BELOW FRZ...WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN DIPPING WELL INTO
THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY PULLING WARM AIR
NORTHWARD INTO REGION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THAT MEANS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD SEE A COLD RAIN...WITH SNOW MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL OHIO AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE COLDER AIR LAGS CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE CLIPPER...WAITING UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR OVERTURNING THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LIGHT SNOW REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...LIMITING ANY UPSLOPE.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER ON TUESDAY AND MODELS ARE SHOWING
LOTS OF 700 MB LIFT. THIS TIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THERMAL 850 MB TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THAN GUIDANCE AND WPC MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE FLUFF...MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...DRY WITH WARMING
ALOFT WEDNESDAY...MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THURSDAY.
NEXT FRONT STILL TIMED FOR LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. THEN
DRIER TURNING SOMEWHAT COLDER DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN BOTH CIGS AND VSBY WILL
CONTINUE THRU 12Z FOR THE TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION WILL FINISH
SWITCHING TO SN FOR THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS BY 09Z. HAVE SOME
TEMPOS IN TO HANDLE OCCASIONAL DROP IN VSBY BELOW 1SM...OTHERWISE
CARRYING PREDOMINATE 1SM AND LIFR/VLIFR CIGS FOR THE TERMINALS
EXCEPT IFR KEKN/KBKW.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BEHIND THE DEFORMATION BAND...AS THE
DEFORMATION BAND TRACKS THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE
VSBY WILL IMPROVE INTO MVFR AND EVENTUAL VFR AS THE SN ENDS...CIGS
WILL STAY IN THE IFR/VLIFR RANGE THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY LIFTING
AND SCT TO BKN MVFR BY MIDDAY...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU TONIGHT WITH
SCT SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS THE N TERMINALS. EXPECT SOME MVFR STRATUS
TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AMID THE SHSN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING THE IMPROVING CIGS/VSBY MAY VARY A FEW
HRS THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 01/24/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H M M M M H H M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H M M H M H H M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M H M M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H M H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE AREA WIDE IN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ007>011-017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ076-083-085>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
210 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY. CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. TURNING COLDER
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS REACHED CRW TO CKB AS OF 07Z...WITH MAINLY
RAIN TO THE E...SAVE FOR HIGH RIDGES WHERE A MIX OF FRZ RAIN AND
SNOW WAS OBSERVED. SNOW AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH WHERE THE WINTER WX ADV CONT
UNTIL 09Z. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THAT A FEW HRS ALONG OH RIVER AND NE
KY AS THE HRRR STILL HAS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION BAND OVER THOSE
LOCALES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A COATING TO AN INCH E OF THE OH
RIVER THRU EARLY MORNING HRS. THIS GOES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
WILL HANDLE THE AREAS OF WV/SW VA NOT IN AN ADV WITH SPS FOR
DEFORMATION BAND AS IT WORKS THRU. MODELS SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING OF
THIS BAND AS IT WORKS THRU WV AND SW VA ZONES.
WIND DOWN THE SNOW BY 15Z ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LINGERING LOW
STRATUS STUBBORN TO LIFT ELSEWHERE BENEATH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. STILL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SCT OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TIGHT CLUSTER AMONGST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TDY...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO STRAY.
WILL BE TRACKING A FAST MOVING UPPER S/W TROF SWINGING THRU
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND TEMPS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS N ZONES AND IN THE N MOUNTAINS. KEPT A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE N MOUNTAINS WITH THIS. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD
DIP BACK TO OR BELOW FRZ...WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN DIPPING WELL INTO
THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A 500MB RIPPLE MOVES THROUGH. NW FLOW BEHIND THIS
ENDS PRETTY QUICKLY AS QUICK MOVING CLIPPER DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST ON
SUNDAY. CLIPPER WILL CROSS CWA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A BIT SOUTH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO TRENDED THAT WAY...BRINGING SOME OF THE
HIGHER POPS THAT WERE PREVIOUS NORTH OF CWA INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. HAVE A FAIRLY SHARP SNOW GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF
CWA...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER AND INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL MODIFY HWO A BIT TO INCLUDE A TIER OR TWO OF
COUNTIES ACROSS THE NORTH FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEN TRANSITION TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NW FLOW AND
COLDER 850MB AIR ARRIVING MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THERMAL 850 MB TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THAN GUIDANCE AND WPC MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE FLUFF...MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...DRY WITH WARMING
ALOFT WEDNESDAY...MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THURSDAY.
NEXT FRONT STILL TIMED FOR LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. THEN
DRIER TURNING SOMEWHAT COLDER DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN BOTH CIGS AND VSBY WILL
CONTINUE THRU 12Z FOR THE TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION WILL FINISH
SWITCHING TO SN FOR THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS BY 09Z. HAVE SOME
TEMPOS IN TO HANDLE OCCASIONAL DROP IN VSBY BELOW 1SM...OTHERWISE
CARRYING PREDOMINATE 1SM AND LIFR/VLIFR CIGS FOR THE TERMINALS
EXCEPT IFR KEKN/KBKW.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BEHIND THE DEFORMATION BAND...AS THE
DEFORMATION BAND TRACKS THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE
VSBY WILL IMPROVE INTO MVFR AND EVENTUAL VFR AS THE SN ENDS...CIGS
WILL STAY IN THE IFR/VLIFR RANGE THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY LIFTING
AND SCT TO BKN MVFR BY MIDDAY...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU TONIGHT WITH
SCT SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS THE N TERMINALS. EXPECT SOME MVFR STRATUS
TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AMID THE SHSN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING THE IMPROVING CIGS/VSBY MAY VARY A FEW
HRS THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 01/24/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H M M M M H H M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H M M H M H H M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M H M M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H M H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE AREA WIDE IN SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ007>011-017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ076-083-085>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
540 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE
SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...
MANY OBS OF FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER NW PA AND WRN
NY AS MOISTURE IS CARRIED IN WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PATCH OF FZDZ SHOULD NOT LAST
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS JUDGING BY RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH HAVE
THE COLUMN COOLING ENOUGH AT BFD TO MAKE SURE IT IS ALL SNOW. WILL
RUN A FZRA ADVY THRU 06Z TO COVER THIS HAZARD.
PREV...
A PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
WINTRY PATTERN OVER CENTRAL PA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AS OUR EARLY WEEKEND STORM CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFFSHORE...A WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ACCUMS INTO THE WEST TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE 5H SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED THIS THIS UPPER TROF
WILL BE ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE DEL MARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER
TROF DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT`S THE LAURELS MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED
IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.
DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.
ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.
STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
TIGHT TEMP GRAIDENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.
WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10-15
MPH IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS OVER THE SW HALF OF CWA...SO ADDED MENTION
OF LLWS THERE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ALSO SPAWN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT IN SAME
AREA. COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ENCROACHMENT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS OF
MVFR CIGS...WHILE SOUTHEAST REMAINS VFR.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.
MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.
TUE...SOME SNOW LIKELY TO LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST AND EAST.
WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
THU...MORE SNOW EXPECTED WITH NEXT FRONT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
111 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE PASSING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING A BRIEF BUT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA...IN THE FORM OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK
JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
HEIGHT OF THE STORM OCCURRING AT 06Z WITH HVY SNOW FALLING OVR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY IN REGION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT AT NOSE OF LL JET. HOWEVER...DUAL POL RADAR SIGNATURE AND SFC
OBS SHOWS CHANGEOVER LINE RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MASON DIXON LINE AT 06Z. ARRIVAL OF WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT
IN A CHANGE TO A RAIN/SLEET/FZRA MIX FROM HARRISBURG SOUTH AND
EASTWARD BTWN 07Z-08Z.
ELSEWHERE...A STEADY LIGHTER SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE REST OF
CENTRAL PA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE N TIER. AS LL JET AND BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST...EXPECT PRECIP RATES TO
DIMINISH MARKEDLY TOWARD DAWN. BASED ON BLEND OF LATEST HRRR AND
EARLIER CONSALL QPF AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS OF ARND 11/1...EXPECT
SNOW TOTALS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LOCAL AMTS ARND 7 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BEFORE CHANGEOVER. ICE ACCUMS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE S COUNTIES...AS TEMPS ARND 32F WILL
LIMIT ACCRETION RATES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BY DAWN SATURDAY...LL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LIGHTER /TO BRIEFLY MDT/ SNOW
/ASSOC WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING 850-700 MB DEFORMATION BAND/
IS LIKELY TO LAST THRU ARND MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS A BIT LONGER OVR
THE NE COUNTIES.
NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
TO EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD
EVENING...LIKELY PRODUCING -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SAT
EVENING.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY
SAT AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROFFY NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEKEND STORM. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PHASING WITH ANY SRN STREAM ENERGY.
MED RANGE MDLS ALL TRACKING A POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST SOUTH
OF PA SUN NIGHT. LATEST TRENDS ARE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE TRACK AND
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AND THUS SNOW TOTALS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
AVAILABLE AND EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT.
AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...WE
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW/SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S.
COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY...AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND
FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO.
MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS.
ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAIN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH MAJORITY
OF TERMINALS DROPPING TO IFR AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WORKS INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING ICING ISSUES.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN AND TAPER OFF MID TO LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH AREAS CLEARING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST...SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LIFT
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. AS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES
HOLD...WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
DROPPING TOMORROW NIGHT AT BFD AND JST...BEGINNING BETWEEN 22Z TO
02Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.
MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.
TUE...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ019-024-025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
344 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LEADING TO SOME
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND SUB FREEZING TEMPS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLACK ICE THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM IS
NOT TOO COLD AND HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT WSW WIND. LATEST MODELS ARE DEPICTING A
MORE POTENT UPPER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S. LATER TONIGHT. THE 00Z GFS AND NAM ACTUALLY HAVE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH A
ROUGHLY 1000 MB SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND TEMPS WILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH SOME CLOUDS INCREASING
TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE INTO MIDDLE AND
EAST TN BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE DEEPER SYSTEM...MOVING CLOSER TO
THE MIDSOUTH...AND INCREASED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT FROM DYR-MKL TO
THE TN RIVER. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOWER TO MID 50S ON SUNDAY
THOUGH IT WILL FEEL CHILLIER DUE TO GUSTY W/WNW WINDS. LINGERING
SHOWERS...PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER...OVER EASTERN SECTIONS WILL END
SUNDAY EVENING. A GOOD DEAL OF LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
30S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...IN THE 40S. QUIET
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS CLIMB A
LITTLE BIT...INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
BEYOND...THE GFS CONTINUES TO FEATURE AN INTERESTING SOLUTION FOR
NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD INVOLVE WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MIDSOUTH. WILL GET EVEN MORE INTERESTING IF THE ECMWF PICKS UP ON
THIS POSSIBILITY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN PRECIP-FREE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AS
CLEARING MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
FOR TUP TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE OPTIMISTIC HRRR CIG PROGS AT
TUP...AND APPEARED TO BE SUPPORTED BY RECENT GOES IR TRENDS. HAVE
BROUGHT VFR UP FORWARD BY SEVERAL HOURS AT TUP...HOWEVER THIS MAY
LEAD TO SOME GROUND FOG FORMATION AND A BRIEF DROP DOWN TO IFR/LIFR
TOWARD SUNRISE. MEM SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT CARGO
OPS.
VFR TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE SATURDAY.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1131 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
UPDATE...
ONLY UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WAS TO FINE-TUNE POPS AND
PRECIP TYPE. SLEET HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED AS WARM LAYER ALOFT HAS
ERODED. AS SUCH...PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPES LOOK TO BE RAIN AND
SNOW WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL EXIT THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
TVT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA/ALABAMA GULF COAST WHILE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/UPPER AIR PROFILER TRENDS CENTERS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DEFORMATION AXIS. AS OF 2 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S ACROSS ALL
LOCATIONS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INTO TONIGHT REMAINS THE
PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGE.
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT. AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...THE ABOVE MENTIONED
DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TONIGHT AND PERHAPS BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE MID
SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS/MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TONIGHT TO -1 TO -2C ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE. CONSEQUENTLY...RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AND/OR SLEET THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING. SOIL TEMPERATURES
STILL REMAIN WARM AND ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIMITED TO
GRASSY AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.
LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY NEXT
THURSDAY.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN PRECIP-FREE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AS
CLEARING MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
FOR TUP TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE OPTIMISTIC HRRR CIG PROGS AT
TUP...AND APPEARED TO BE SUPPORTED BY RECENT GOES IR TRENDS. HAVE
BROUGHT VFR UP FORWARD BY SEVERAL HOURS AT TUP...HOWEVER THIS MAY
LEAD TO SOME GROUND FOG FORMATION AND A BRIEF DROP DOWN TO IFR/LIFR
TOWARD SUNRISE. MEM SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT CARGO
OPS.
VFR TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE SATURDAY.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
526 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY CONCERN IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. RAP AND NAM12 925 MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS BETWEEN 03-15Z WHILE SFC WINDS
DROP TO AROUND 6-8 KTS. HAVE ADDED LLWS TO ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS SOME NICE CIRRUS STREAMING OVER SE TX THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NW AND REALLY THATS ABOUT IT. GIVEN NW WINDS...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 70 AS COLD ADVECTION LAGS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S FOR MON MORNING. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT A NICE WARM UP WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MISS/TN RIVER VALLEYS ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BOMB OUT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS LATE MON THROUGH WED. HOW DOES THIS IMPACT HOUSTON?
LETS JUST SAY YOU SHOULD NOT EXPECT TO FLY EAST ANY TIME SOON
ESPECIALLY JFK/LGA/BOS. WHILE THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY DELAYS AT
IAH/HOU THERE MAY BE SOME TRICKLE DOWN TRAVEL IMPACTS.
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND NW
FLOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2 THIRDS OF THE U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER S
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SEEMS TO BE A FAVORED REGION
FOR CUT OFF LOWS THIS YEAR. THE PATTERN LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
RECENT RAIN EVENT AND THEN RUN OF GOOD WEATHER AFTER THAT. GRANTED
IT IS NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-50 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES STARTING SAT INTO SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA THUR INTO FRI SO THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER SET UP FOR GOOD COLD
RAIN. THE HARDEST PART WILL BE TIMING ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
THAT PUSH THROUGH IN THE MAIN JET FLOW. GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THAT REGARD. GFS IS WET AT FIRST BUT REALLY HANGS
THE CUTT OFF OUT OVER THE BAJA. ECMWF IS DRIER AT FIRST...HAS ONE
CLUSTER OF RAIN NEXT SUN AND THEN FINALLY EJECTS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER GOOD SOAKER IN THE 8-10DAY RANGE. WITH
THAT IN MIND...STANDARD DISCLAIMER APPLIES...DETAILS OF THE 8-10
DAY FORECAST WILL CHANGE QUITE A BIT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. STILL
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
39
MARINE...
W/SWLY WINDS JUST A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY RELAX A BIT THIS EVE AS THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVES IN
FROM THE N/NW. NO REAL CHANGE FROM CURRENT FCST OF SCEC CONDITIONS
TONIGHT/EARLY MON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION BE-
HIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO DECREASE WINDS/SEAS BY MON AFTN/EVE IF
ALL GOES WELL. THE GENERALLY LIGHT WLY FLOW MON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS FOR TUES/WEDS. THE NEXT FRONT ON TAP
FOR LATE THURS. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 42 66 48 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 43 65 47 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 47 60 51 66 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
322 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND HEAD
NORTHEAST TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO THE WINTRY WEATHER BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. AN SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
MONDAY AND COULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...NAMELY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 FROM
BLUEFIELD TO LYNCHBURG.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM EST SATURDAY...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM...AND SEE NO NEED TO
EXTEND THEM AT THIS POINT AS MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE
OVER AFTER MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WEST.
A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS...ONE EAST OF VA BEACH...AND THE OTHER NEAR
WILMINGTON NC...WILL STRENGTHEN INTO ONE LOW BY LATE
MORNING...TURNING OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST.
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH IN CHANGING ANY FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET
BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FURTHER EAST
EXPECT MAINLY RAIN WITH POCKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH
DAWN.
AS THE SFC LOW WINDS UP...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO 35 TO
45 MPH OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ROANOKE CLOSER TO
THE LOW.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 30S WEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. MORE SUNSHINE WILL
RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST SATURDAY...
THE MID ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
OVERNIGHT. HEIGHTS INCREASE ALOFT SUNDAY MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE
TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON
THEN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARM SUNDAY
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...THEREFORE P-TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN.
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL IN QUESTION AS WILL THE P-
TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD THE SURFACE
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST. 00Z MODELS ARE TRACKING THE LOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND OFF CAPE
HATTERAS MONDAY. THIS SOUTHERN TRACK WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF HWY 460 IN THE PIEDMONT.
ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY IS A TOUGH CALL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WHICH IS LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF GREENBRIER AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WHERE 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
MONDAY/S SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA COAST AND
BECOMES STATIONARY. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE...OR AT
LEAST A STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE...TO TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD AIR LEFT-OVER FROM
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. ALSO LEFT BEHIND THE FIRST WILL BE
DRIER AIR THAT THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVER COME TO PRODUCE
SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT OUT
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM ZIPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE.
ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY
FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 20S IN
THE PIEDMONT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL VARY
FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS TO THE UPPER 20S. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER
40S IN THE PIEDMONTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED
POPS IN THE WEST FRIDAY...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS...AND LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KROA/KDAN/KLYH. TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO FREEZING AT KBLF/KLWB AND KBCB SO SOME ICING OCCURRING
AT THESE AIRPORTS.
ONCE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH..THEN NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING ON WIND SHIFT AND COLDER AIR. COLDER
AIR WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SLEET THEN SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LOCAL WRF MODELS AS WELL AS HRRR SHOWED
THE TRANSITION TO SNOW BETWEEN 09Z/4AM AND 12Z/7AM.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND WILL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 00Z AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. KBLF MAY REMAIN IFR
THROUGH THE EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....PERSISTENT UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SUB VFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING MORE A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SNOW
TO THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GENERALLY MVFR TO
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW THERE MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ010>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1158 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A
VARIETY OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN TO AREAS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AS THE DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EST FRIDAY...
WINTER BE LEAVING WEATHER ADVISORIES INTACT WITH THIS ISSUANCE AND
CONTINUE THEM THROUGH 10AM SATURDAY MORNING.
00Z/7PM SOUNDING FROM RNK HAD A WARM NOSE AT 3500-4000FT AGL OF
39F/4C. REST OF THE SOUNDING BELOW 2500FT AGL WAS BELOW FREEZING.
SO LITTLE TO NO SLEET OR SNOW EXPECTED AT THIS POINT UNTIL SURFACE
LOW MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST BRINGING DEEPER COLD AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. LARGEST
ICING AMOUNTS STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM FLOYD
COUNTY AND BENT MOUNTAIN NORTH TO MONTEBELLO.
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SINCE 9PM AS THE DRY SLOT HAS ADVANCED INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. BUT LOCAL WRF AS WELL AS HRRR KEEP LOW LEVELS WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST UNTIL 09Z/4AM. NOT AS MUCH ACCUMULATION OF ICE IN THE
AREAS BELOW FREEZING IN THE DRY SLOT BUT STILL UPSLOPE AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF ROANOKE.
03Z/10PM MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED BEST PRESSURE FALLS HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA. THE PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND WILL MOVE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE THE LOW IS OFF THE
COAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST...EASTERN UPSLOPE ENDS
AND WESTERN UPSLOPE BEGINS. COLDER AIR WILL COME IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW...CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
THE REST OF SATURDAY WILL SEE LINGERING FLURRIES FOR THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE RIDGE...AND
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR ALL. WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPING EAST
OF THE RIDGE TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MIDDLE 40S FOR
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...
NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL BE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEAN LONG WAVE
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALIGN N-S OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW. FIRST
DISTURBANCE...OR ALBERTA CLIPPER...WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...MOVING FROM IOWA SUNDAY MORNING TO NORTHERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN PASS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A DISTINCT WARM NOSE...850 H TEMPS OF +3
DEG C...WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES OVERHEAD EARLY
MONDAY. AS SUCH...ANY PRECIP THAT ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE RAIN. ONCE THE WAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...THE WARM NOSE WOULD
THEN BE SQUASHED WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL RETURNING CLOSES ENOUGH TO
THE GROUND TO SUPPORT A P-TYPE OF SNOW.
MODELS MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST QPF TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE CYCLONE. THIS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL PRIMARILY BE
NORTH OF OUR CWA...WV...NRN VA...AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA. EVEN
SO...THERE IS STILL THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA...THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...AND ALONG OUR FAVORED
WESTERN SLOPES FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF NC. ATTM...THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...BUT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE FOR NORTHWESTERN
GREENBRIER PENDING THE TRACK OF THE SECOND REINFORCING SHORT WAVE
EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EAST COAST TUESDAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND LIFT OUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROF. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A LITTLE WETTER THAN ECMWF WITH MOUNTAINS
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
WITH READINGS FROM THE THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE
THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS/SNOW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE PIEDMONT. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND WEDNESDAY BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE UPPER 20S. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALLOWED FOR
ISOLATED POPS IN THE WEST FRIDAY...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS...AND LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KROA/KDAN/KLYH. TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO FREEZING AT KBLF/KLWB AND KBCB SO SOME ICING OCCURRING
AT THESE AIRPORTS.
ONCE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH..THEN NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING ON WIND SHIFT AND COLDER AIR. COLDER
AIR WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SLEET THEN SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LOCAL WRF MODELS AS WELL AS HRRR SHOWED
THE TRANSITION TO SNOW BETWEEN 09Z/4AM AND 12Z/7AM.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND WILL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 00Z AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. KBLF MAY REMAIN IFR
THROUGH THE EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....PERSISTENT UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SUB VFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING MORE A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SNOW
TO THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GENERALLY MVFR TO
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW THERE MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
VAZ010>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-
002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
938 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
MAIN CHG TO THE FCST THIS EVENING WAS TO ADJUST PCPN TIMING BASED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. SNOW MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO GET STARTED
IN THE E THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. IT ALSO APPEARS THERE COULD BE A
FAIRLY FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR LAKE-EFFECT OVER ERN WI AS THE EVENT
WINDS DOWN MONDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WL BE SUFFICIENT WITH 850 MB
TEMPS OF -10C TO -12C. IT ALSO APPEARS A WELL DEFINED SFC TROF WL
LINGER NNWD NEAR THE LAKESHORE...WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE BTWN
ELY FLOW OVER THE LAKE AND NLY FLOW A FEW COUNTIES INLAND.
MID-LVL MOISTURE SHIFTG EWD AND WARMER TEMPS STILL SUPPORT A CHC
OF FZDZ OVER C/N-C WI AS THE SNOW DIMINSHES LATER MON AFTN-MON
EVENING. BUT THE FZDZ WOULD BE FALLING ON TOP OF THE SNOW...SO THE
IMPACT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS GREAT AS WHEN FZDZ FALLS ON
BARE GROUND/ROADS. SITN DOES NOT SEEM WORTHY OF HEADLINE AT THIS
POINT...BUT MIDNIGHT SHIFT CAN REASSES AND ISSUE ONE IF LATER DATA
LOOK MORE OMINOUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW POCKETS OF STRATO-CU REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS HAVE CLEARED OUT. WILL SEE A SHORT
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AN AREA OF
THINNING ALTO-CUMULUS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LAKE WINNIPEG REGION...AND POISED TO
ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...LINGERING AREAS OF STRATO-CU OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WILL BE FADING BY SUNSET AS INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH AND VERY
DRY AIR OVERWHELM THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. POCKET OF MID-CLOUDS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE EVENING BUT
THINKING THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN/DIMINISH AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.
IF THIS OCCURS...THIS WILL LEAVE A FEW HOUR WINDOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER N-C WISCONSIN UNTIL CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN
LATE IN THE EVENING. WILL DROP LOW TEMPS ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN AND
THEN SHOW RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NEXT ALBERTA CLIPPER
WILL MAKE QUICK PROGRESS TONIGHT AND REACH THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z MON. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
WILL CAUSE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW ARRIVING OVER N-C WISCONSIN BETWEEN 09-12Z. UNCERTAINTY IS
RATHER HIGH WITH LOW TEMPS ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN...BUT WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
NORTH TO AROUND 10 ABOVE SOUTH.
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY 00Z. DECENT MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WARM ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND 15 TO 1...NORTH-CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD SEE AROUND 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY
THE END OF THE DAY WHILE EASTERN WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. THE SNOW MAY ALSO MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
PEEL OUT. WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES SUBSTANTIALLY. HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE 20S AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THOUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THIS WEEK. WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY. THE MIDWEEK CLIPPER SYSTEM PROBABLY HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRODUCING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH PHASING THERE IS WITH SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY PASSING BY
TO THE SOUTH.
THERE IS ALSO LIMITED MOISTURE WITH ALL THREE SYSTEMS SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY BIG SNOWS THIS WEEK. UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID
WEEK DESPITE THE FLOW BEING NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS WEEK WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF REAL ARCTIC AIR SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 928 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
NO SIG CHCS TO AVN FCST WITH THE 06Z TAFS. PATCH OF MID CLDS WL
CONT TO SHIFT OFF TO THE SE...BUT WL BE REPLACED BY MUCH MORE
EXPANSIVE CLD DECK THAT WL LOWER WITH TIME. SNOW AHEAD OF INCOMING
SYSTEM LOOKS TO START IN THE 14Z-18Z TIME FRAME W AND 16Z-20Z IN
THE E...WITH PERHAPS SOME SHSN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WORKING WWD INTO
LAKESHORE AREAS EARLIER. EXPECT MAINLY IFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW
BAND ON MONDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
917 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHT SNOW PUSHING INTO WEST AREAS UNTIL MID
MORNING. NAM IS SIMILAR TO 18Z RUN...BUT HRRR DOES NOT DEVELOP
PRECIP TO THE WEST...AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS IT AROUND MID MORNING
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
NO SIGN OF ANY LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OFF MILWAUKEE TERMINAL RADAR.
LIMITED LAKE CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN TO MVFR ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. COULD SEE CLOSER
TO 2 INCHES IN THE NORTH PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
FORCING WILL BE STRONGER.
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE LOSS OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION FROM
WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ALSO CUT DOWN ON SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
CLEARING CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. LATEST
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES THE CLEARING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE THE FORECAST AREA INTO LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE NIGHT. MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW DEVELOP TOO...BUT WOULD LIKELY
BE VERY LIGHT...WITH BORDERLINE SFC-850 MB DELTA T VALUES AND
SATURATION ONLY UP TO ABOUT 3 KFT VIA NAM SOUNDINGS. KEPT LOWS
TONIGHT MILDER IN THE EAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE WINDS AND CLOUD
POTENTIAL.
STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY. OVERALL
FORCING LOOKS BEST IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING...WITH WEAKENING LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. SEEING DECENT SUPPORT
FOR HIGH POPS VIA LOW LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...850-700 MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION...AND EVEN SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET. MODEL QPF HAS COME UP A BIT...SO INCREASED
FORECAST VALUES. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND SFC TEMPS SUPPORT
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF AROUND 15-17 TO 1...RESULTING IN SNOW
AMOUNTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FROM AROUND A HALF AN INCH IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.
ONE CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE LOSS OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION BEGINNING
IN THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ALSO CUT DOWN ON SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT. SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATION RIGHT UP TO ABOUT -10C...SO KIND OF A TOUGH CALL.
MENTIONED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WEST.
TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...SO
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH THE
CLOUDS AND SNOW.
MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
FORCING FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO STREAK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. THE FORCING
AND MOISTURE MOVE OFF QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...SO WILL
STEADILY DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PRECIP TYPE IS AN
ISSUE FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND
LINGERS LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP US DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT MAY BE A
DIRTY HIGH...AS WE SAY...WITH ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND TO KEEP IT MORE
ON THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL.
THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THERE/S ACTUALLY TWO SHORT WAVES THAT MERGE...ONE COMING
FROM THE ALBERTA CLIPPER GENESIS REGION...THE OTHER FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS HELPS CARVE OUT A DIGGING TROF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT THE TIMING PUTS THE BETTER QPF OFF TO OUR EAST.
AND EVEN THAT ISN/T TOO IMPRESSIVE. FOR US...WE/RE LOOKING AT QPF
NUMBERS AROUND .05...SO NOTHING OF CONCERN AT THIS POINT. DECENT
LEADING WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH SOME MILDER TEMPS UP HERE THAT
PUTS PRECIP TYPE INTO QUESTION AGAIN. WILL GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WEDNESDAY EVENING...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATER ON.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS FINALLY COOLING DOWN
TO LEVELS MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
ANOTHER WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CLEARING CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. LATEST
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES THE CLEARING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE THE FORECAST AREA INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE EAST DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH AND MAY ONLY
BE FLURRIES...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN TO MVFR ACROSS SOUTHER WISCONSIN LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND AN INCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. COULD SEE CLOSER TO 2 INCHES
IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA WHERE FORCING WILL BE STRONGER IN THE
MORNING.
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE LOSS OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION FROM
WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ALSO CUT DOWN ON SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE.
MARINE...
WIND GUSTS WILL EASE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHER WAVES
LINGERING INTO LATE EVENING...SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GOING INTO THE EVENING. HIGHER WAVES WILL PERSIST LONGER IN THE
SOUTH DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW. LIGHTER WINDS AND SUBSIDING WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
831 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOME OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COUNTIES ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SEEING A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE SNOW ENDS...WHILE IN
TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A LITTLE MORE SNOW
TO FALL THAN WHATS EVEN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THATS BECAUSE THE
RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW 7 C/KM LAPSE RATES MARCHING THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ADD SOME CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AT BOULDER ALSO
SHOWS THIS CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...EVEN INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND
INTO THE LSE AREA...RIGHT AT MORNING COMMUTE TIME.
ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
ALONE...THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
MAKE FOR A MESS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE LEFT UNTREATED.
ADDITIONALLY...HAVING THIS PRECIPITATION COME THROUGH AT MORNING
COMMUTE TIME IS ALSO A PROBLEM. THESE ARE THE MAIN REASONS WHY THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
FOLLOWING THE SITUATION CLOSELY FOR MONDAY AS A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS BETWEEN THE 25.15Z SREF...25.18Z
NAM/GFS AND 25.21Z RAP FOR SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GOOD DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IN THE MORNING
WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH AS WELL AS HAVING THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET SITUATED OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY...THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL LIFT. THE CONCERN
BECOMES WHEN THE SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION LEAVE THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING...CAUSING MID-LEVEL DRYING AND THUS LOSS OF ICE IN
THE CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...WE STILL HAVE THAT WARM FRONT COMING INTO
THE REGION FROM NEAR I-35 TO PROVIDE THAT LOW LEVEL LIFT. THUS IT
APPEARS LIKELY WE SHOULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BY MID-LATE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER COUNTIES.
ONE BENEFIT IS THAT SNOW IS STARTING OUT FIRST...WHICH SHOULD
MINIMIZE THE IMPACT OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE ON TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...IF ROADS DO NOT GET TREATED...THEY COULD EASILY BE
SLIPPERY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE COULD BE ISSUES WITH THE SNOW COMING IN AT
COMMUTE TIME. SO BOTH SOME PROS AND CONS FOR A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT FARTHER
EAST THAN A ROCHESTER TO OELWEIN LINE...KEEPING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER COUNTIES AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD BE COLDER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL
LIFT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS PLENTY TO
KEEP SOME DRIZZLE GOING...WHICH COULD THEN FREEZE IF OUR
TEMPERATURES STAY COLD. ON THE OTHER HAND...DAYLIGHT THROUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY HEAT UP ROADS ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
CHALLENGES CONCERN PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS/TYPE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CANADIAN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 25.12Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT...BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON AMOUNTS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WILL USE A BLENDED
SOLUTION OF THE 25.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.
THIS EVENING WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN AN 850 HPA
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA/EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES ACROSS MN AND
INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. MODEST MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH
AND SATURATED TO AROUND 500 HPA FOR ALL SNOW. HOWEVER...AS DAY
PROGRESSES...ICE LOSS OCCURS AS 700 TO 500 HPA LAYER DRYS OUT.
WITH SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
EAU CLAIRE TO BLACK RIVER FALLS TO PLATTEVILLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES.
FARTHER WEST TO THE MS RIVER...A QUICKER CHANGE OVER TO DRIZZLE
WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE HALF INCH TO AN INCH
RANGE. SNOW WEST OF THE RIVER WILL BE A TRACE TO HALF INCH.
A THIN GLAZE OF ICE FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT
BECAUSE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SHARP CUT-OFF BETWEEN THE STRONGEST
FORCING/BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION AND WHEN ICE LOSS OCCURS...
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOIST AN ADVISORY.
IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE A POSSIBILITY AND CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IF
ICE ACCUMULATION DOES HAPPEN...IT SHOULD QUICKLY MELT AS
TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR
EAST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BY LATE TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND POTENTIALLY QUITE WARM AS LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND KEEPS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY FROM
+2 TO +5 C. CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE...BUT LOWER
40S A REAL POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO
SOUTHWEST WI. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE WRAPS-UP ACROSS WI.
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS
ALLOWING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE STRONGEST OF THESE IMPACTS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WILL DROP SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S ON THURSDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
THE LOW STRATUS HAS CLEARED LSE BUT REMAINS STUCK FROM RST TO
I-35. WITH THE WIND FIELD BECOMING LIGHT...THE MVFR STRATUS AT
RST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE LSE STAYS VFR.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM NORTHERN MN WILL TURN THE WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...BRINGING
THE STRATUS NEAR I-35 BACK INTO LSE AROUND 09Z. ADDITIONALLY...WE
SHOULD SEE SNOW MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
11-12Z...WITH THAT MOISTURE HELPING TO LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO IFR...OR POSSIBLY LIFR AT RST. AROUND 13Z AT RST
AND 16Z AT LSE...DRYING COMING IN AROUND 10000 FT WILL HELP SCOUR
OUT THE ICE IN THE CLOUDS...CAUSING THE SNOW TO TRANSITION TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END AT RST AROUND
15Z. HOWEVER...AT LSE...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ICING PART ENDING AROUND 19Z AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND LATE MORNING AS PRECIPITATION WEAKENS...BUT
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO STAY DOWN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS MIXING
INCREASES.
ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WOULD BE A GLAZE AT MOST...WITH SNOW TOTALS
LESS THAN 1 INCH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017-
029-032>034-041-042-053.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ079-
088-096.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
541 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
FOLLOWING THE SITUATION CLOSELY FOR MONDAY AS A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS BETWEEN THE 25.15Z SREF...25.18Z
NAM/GFS AND 25.21Z RAP FOR SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GOOD DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IN THE MORNING
WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH AS WELL AS HAVING THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET SITUATED OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY...THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL LIFT. THE CONCERN
BECOMES WHEN THE SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION LEAVE THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING...CAUSING MID-LEVEL DRYING AND THUS LOSS OF ICE IN
THE CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...WE STILL HAVE THAT WARM FRONT COMING INTO
THE REGION FROM NEAR I-35 TO PROVIDE THAT LOW LEVEL LIFT. THUS IT
APPEARS LIKELY WE SHOULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BY MID-LATE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER COUNTIES.
ONE BENEFIT IS THAT SNOW IS STARTING OUT FIRST...WHICH SHOULD
MINIMIZE THE IMPACT OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE ON TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...IF ROADS DO NOT GET TREATED...THEY COULD EASILY BE
SLIPPERY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE COULD BE ISSUES WITH THE SNOW COMING IN AT
COMMUTE TIME. SO BOTH SOME PROS AND CONS FOR A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT FARTHER
EAST THAN A ROCHESTER TO OELWEIN LINE...KEEPING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER COUNTIES AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD BE COLDER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL
LIFT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS PLENTY TO
KEEP SOME DRIZZLE GOING...WHICH COULD THEN FREEZE IF OUR
TEMPERATURES STAY COLD. ON THE OTHER HAND...DAYLIGHT THROUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY HEAT UP ROADS ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
CHALLENGES CONCERN PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS/TYPE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CANADIAN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 25.12Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT...BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON AMOUNTS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WILL USE A BLENDED
SOLUTION OF THE 25.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.
THIS EVENING WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN AN 850 HPA
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA/EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES ACROSS MN AND
INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. MODEST MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH
AND SATURATED TO AROUND 500 HPA FOR ALL SNOW. HOWEVER...AS DAY
PROGRESSES...ICE LOSS OCCURS AS 700 TO 500 HPA LAYER DRYS OUT.
WITH SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
EAU CLAIRE TO BLACK RIVER FALLS TO PLATTEVILLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES.
FARTHER WEST TO THE MS RIVER...A QUICKER CHANGE OVER TO DRIZZLE
WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE HALF INCH TO AN INCH
RANGE. SNOW WEST OF THE RIVER WILL BE A TRACE TO HALF INCH.
A THIN GLAZE OF ICE FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT
BECAUSE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SHARP CUT-OFF BETWEEN THE STRONGEST
FORCING/BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION AND WHEN ICE LOSS OCCURS...
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOIST AN ADVISORY.
IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE A POSSIBILITY AND CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IF
ICE ACCUMULATION DOES HAPPEN...IT SHOULD QUICKLY MELT AS
TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR
EAST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BY LATE TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND POTENTIALLY QUITE WARM AS LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND KEEPS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY FROM
+2 TO +5 C. CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE...BUT LOWER
40S A REAL POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO
SOUTHWEST WI. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE WRAPS-UP ACROSS WI.
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS
ALLOWING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE STRONGEST OF THESE IMPACTS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WILL DROP SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S ON THURSDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
THE LOW STRATUS HAS CLEARED LSE BUT REMAINS STUCK FROM RST TO
I-35. WITH THE WIND FIELD BECOMING LIGHT...THE MVFR STRATUS AT
RST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE LSE STAYS VFR.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM NORTHERN MN WILL TURN THE WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...BRINGING
THE STRATUS NEAR I-35 BACK INTO LSE AROUND 09Z. ADDITIONALLY...WE
SHOULD SEE SNOW MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
11-12Z...WITH THAT MOISTURE HELPING TO LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO IFR...OR POSSIBLY LIFR AT RST. AROUND 13Z AT RST
AND 16Z AT LSE...DRYING COMING IN AROUND 10000 FT WILL HELP SCOUR
OUT THE ICE IN THE CLOUDS...CAUSING THE SNOW TO TRANSITION TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END AT RST AROUND
15Z. HOWEVER...AT LSE...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ICING PART ENDING AROUND 19Z AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND LATE MORNING AS PRECIPITATION WEAKENS...BUT
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO STAY DOWN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS MIXING
INCREASES.
ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WOULD BE A GLAZE AT MOST...WITH SNOW TOTALS
LESS THAN 1 INCH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
530 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW POCKETS OF STRATO-CU REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS HAVE CLEARED OUT. WILL SEE A SHORT
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AN AREA OF
THINNING ALTO-CUMULUS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LAKE WINNIPEG REGION...AND POISED TO
ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...LINGERING AREAS OF STRATO-CU OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WILL BE FADING BY SUNSET AS INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH AND VERY
DRY AIR OVERWHELM THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. POCKET OF MID-CLOUDS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE EVENING BUT
THINKING THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN/DIMINISH AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.
IF THIS OCCURS...THIS WILL LEAVE A FEW HOUR WINDOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER N-C WISCONSIN UNTIL CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN
LATE IN THE EVENING. WILL DROP LOW TEMPS ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN AND
THEN SHOW RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NEXT ALBERTA CLIPPER
WILL MAKE QUICK PROGRESS TONIGHT AND REACH THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z MON. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
WILL CAUSE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW ARRIVING OVER N-C WISCONSIN BETWEEN 09-12Z. UNCERTAINTY IS
RATHER HIGH WITH LOW TEMPS ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN...BUT WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
NORTH TO AROUND 10 ABOVE SOUTH.
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY 00Z. DECENT MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WARM ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND 15 TO 1...NORTH-CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD SEE AROUND 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY
THE END OF THE DAY WHILE EASTERN WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. THE SNOW MAY ALSO MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
PEEL OUT. WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES SUBSTANTIALLY. HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE 20S AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THOUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THIS WEEK. WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY. THE MIDWEEK CLIPPER SYSTEM PROBABLY HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRODUCING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH PHASING THERE IS WITH SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY PASSING BY
TO THE SOUTH.
THERE IS ALSO LIMITED MOISTURE WITH ALL THREE SYSTEMS SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY BIG SNOWS THIS WEEK. UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID
WEEK DESPITE THE FLOW BEING NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS WEEK WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF REAL ARCTIC AIR SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
NO SIG CHCS TO AVN FCST WITH THE 00Z TAFS. PATCH OF MID CLDS WL
DROP SSE ACRS THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE EXPANSIVE
CLD DECK THAT WL LOWER WITH TIME. SNOW AHEAD OF INCOMING SYSTEM
LOOKS TO START IN THE 14Z-18Z TIME FRAME...WITH PERHAPS SOME SHSN
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WORKING WWD INTO LAKESHORE AREAS EARLIER.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SOUTHWARD
MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT REACHING THE U.P. BORDER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS FRONT IS A VERY COLD/DRY AIRMASS AS EVIDENT
BY TEMPS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO OVER ONTARIO.
THE FRONT IS MAINLY INACTIVE AT THE MOMENT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IS CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXPECTATION IS THAT THESE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A DECENT SWATH OF
SNOW OCCURRING OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ALONG THE
FRONT AND FROM THE CLIPPER ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING WHILE A CLIPPER TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PERHAPS
COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ALONG THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT ANTICIPATING BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW TO
OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE FOX
VALLEY BY MID-EVENING. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING DECENT MID-LEVEL FGEN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE
FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. AS A RESULT...KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THERE. STILL ANTICIPATING A GLANCING BLOW FROM
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST RUNS OF
MESOMODELS SUGGEST THE SNOW WILL MISS THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY.
AREAS FROM WISC RAPIDS TO WAUTOMA COULD SEE UP TO A HALF INCH...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS FARTHER NORTH. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH.
SUNDAY...A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW WILL LINGER FROM WAUTOMA TO
MANITOWOC EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD BE DEPARTING
QUICKLY AS THE CLIPPER MOVES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING A VERY DRY AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE (DEWPOINTS OVER ONTARIO ARE BELOW 0F). EVEN
THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE UNSTABLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
MICHIGAN...EXPECT THIS DRY AIR TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER AS LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS BECOME RETREAT CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES. THINK ITS
POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AN INCH OR LESS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES.
A BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ONE MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PHASE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A FEW INCHES DESPITE
MEAGER MOISTURE. VERY COLD AIR LOOKS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBZERO
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS OF 30 BELOW POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IF GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS ARE CORRECT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXCEPT FOR THOSE
PATCHY IFR CIGS THAT SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND CIGS WILL RETURN TO MVFR
AFTER IT PASSES. THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A STEADY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF
CENTRAL WI AND THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY TONIGHT. SOME IFR VSBYS ARE
ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MFI-OSH. ANY SNOW WILL LIKELY PULL
OUT BY AROUND 12Z. DRY ARCTIC AIR COULD LEAD TO SCATTERING OF THE
MVFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS
RATHER HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.
GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
MPC.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1228 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON PER HRRR MODEL
FIELDS. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE FAR WEST...BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF THIS WILL OCCUR. HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED A BIT IN MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAISED IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME SUNSHINE BROUGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
40S.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUD DECK MOVES INTO THE AREA. THESE CEILINGS
WILL LINGER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BECOMING MVFR LATER IN THE DAY.
WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.
LIGHT SNOW WITH 1 MILE VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD INTO MADISON BY
08Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 09Z SUNDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING...ENDING AROUND 18Z TO 19Z SUNDAY.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED. TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...WITH
HIGH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
EXPECTED WINDS AND WAVES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
EXPECT STRATUS TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. DO EXPECT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY MILD TEMPS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 40F.
A NLY 140 JET STREAM WILL DIVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TNT...DIGGING AND
AMPLIFYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE AT THE IA AND MO BORDER
BY 12Z SUN. THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK
PLACING THE BEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS JUST SOUTH
OF WI. DESPITE THE MODEL MASS FIELDS AGREEING FAIRLY WELL...THERE
ARE SOME QPF DIFFERENCES. TOOK A BLEND OF WPC AND CONSALL QPF WHICH
THEN YIELDS AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR THE IL BORDER TO LESS THAN AN INCH
TOWARD CENTRAL WI FOR LATE TNT AND SUN AM.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS ALL SHOW SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL IL WILL BE DIVING SEWD
RATHER RAPIDLY WITH NRN FRINGE OF PRECIP SHIELD AFFECTING SRN WI
IN THE MORNING WITH A QUICK EXIT LIKELY AS DRIER AIR WRAPS IN PER
700 RH PROGS. 500 MILLIBAR PROGS SHOW THE UPPER SUPPORT QUICKLY
FADING AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER DROPS SEWD RAPIDLY WITH THE STGR
JET ACTION WELL SOUTH OF WI. 850 TEMPS DROP TO -10C THOUGH DRY
AIR ADVECTION IS PRONOUNCED WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND SOUNDINGS
DO NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR MEASURABLE LAKE EFFECT WITH THE LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE. SWATH OF 850
MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. QPF VARIES BUT WENT WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW. GFS/NAM SUGGEST KEEPING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP LARGELY NORTH OF CWA THROUGH 18Z WITH BETTER SATURATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE STATE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEAKER FORCING SIGNAL ALOFT WITH
ELONGATED...MOSTLY SHEARED VORTICITY. PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROUGH
AND SHEAR AXIS KEEPS POPS GOING INTO MONDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH WORKS IN...SO QUIET
PERIOD EXPECTED. NEXT LOW DRAWS CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH 850 TEMPS RISING WELL ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE. THE GFS SHOWS THE THERMAL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TO THE
SURFACE LOW. AS TIME DRAWS CLOSER MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WARMER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH
PRIMARY LOW TRACKING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF MKE/MSN EARLY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A SLOWER AND STRONGER SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH WITH AN IMPLIED LONGER DURATION EVENT THAT WOULD LAST INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM IS ALSO SHOWING A STRONGER LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE THE STATE WITH TIMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. STILL SHOWING SOME WARMER THICKNESSES/850
TEMPS LIKE THE ECMWF SO HAVE THE MIXED PRECIP TYPE IN GRIDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS MUCH LESS OF A MIXED PRECIP SIGNAL THAN THE
ECMWF AND GEM. BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALL
MODELS SUGGEST COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN AS LOW PULLS EAST.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC LOOK WITH
SURFACE RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED
LOW FROM THURSDAY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...BROKEN STRATUS FROM 2.5-3.5 KFT CONTINUES OVER
SRN WI BUT STRATUS CLEARS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE 925-850 MB
TEMPS ARE WARMER WITH LESS MOISTURE. THE WLY FLOW WILL BRING THE
MILDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AM
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT STRATUS TO BECOME FEW-SCT. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH SRN
MN...IA...AND CENTRAL IL FOR LATE TNT THROUGH SUN AM. THIS WILL
BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE TNT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS...THEN CIGS WILL FALL
BELOW 1 KFT WITH VSBYS RANGING FROM 1-3 MILES WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW.
MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 09Z SUN AND END SUNDAY
EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM IA INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
LATE SAT NT AND SUN...BRISK NELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH HIGH
WAVES. THE WINDS AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE MI.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1048 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY
DUE TO THE LACK OF IT OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF MINNESOTA.
00Z RAOB DATA FROM MPX...ABR AND BIS ALL HAD 925MB DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS THAT WERE QUITE A BIT DRIER / 3 C OR SO / THAN THE
23.12Z/18Z GFS/NAM. AS SUCH...THOSE MODELS SUGGESTED TOO MUCH LOW
STRATUS ACROSS MINNESOTA. THE NEW 24.00Z NAM...NOW THAT IT HAS THE
RAOB DATA IN IT...HAS GREATLY DRIED OUT ITS 925MB RH FIELD. IN
FACT...THE 925MB RH FIELD LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE 23.21-22Z RAP RUNS
THAT WERE USED FOR THE AVIATION FORECASTS. IN ESSENCE...FOR MUCH
OF TONIGHT INTO MID-DAY SATURDAY...HAVE GREATLY REDUCED CLOUD
COVER ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 52. ADDITIONALLY...THE CLOUD THAT IS
COMING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SECTION LOOKS TO SCATTER
OR CLEAR OUT AROUND DAYBREAK...WHICH HAS BEEN INCORPORATED INTO
THE SKY FORECAST.
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF WINDS
AND AREAS RECEIVING CLOUDS TO HELP PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
FIRST FORECAST CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AS FLOW
TURNS NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS STRATUS INTO THE REGION. CURRENTLY THE
STRATUS DECK IS WORKING SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH
CLOUD BASES AROUND 1500 FT. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
SREF VISIBILITY PROBS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY TO
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND ACROSS THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA. IF THE
FOG DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING SO HAVE NOT
ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST.
THE NEXT FEATURE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT AND DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM
HAVE SHIFTED THE HEAVIER BAND SOUTHWEST NOW...IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE NAM IS STICKING TO A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION
PLACING THE HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
SNOW...CONFIDENCE ON LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE A 3-5 INCH BAND IS
NOT. MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTESTATE 94 SHOULD SEE
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH AN ENHANCED BAND POSSIBLE. WHERE
THIS BAND SETS UP A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. IF THE SOUTHERLY TRACK
HOLDS...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY NOT SEE ANY SNOW. THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST THERE COULD BE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. A LITTLE BIT TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN
AMOUNTS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT. A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THEN FINALLY SHIFTS
EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SOME MILDER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY REACHING THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS BRIEF WARM-UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE AIR BACK INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
STRATUS...OR REALLY LACK THEREOF...CONTINUES TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST. MVFR/VFR STRATUS DECK MOVING AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH MORE MVFR STRATUS LURKS
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST WI INTO NORTHEAST MN. WITH THE FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE GROUND TURNING NORTHWESTERLY...ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS
MVFR STRATUS COULD BRIEFLY GET INTO LSE BETWEEN 11-13Z...BEFORE
THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE WEST TO PUSH IT OUT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY AS DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO BE BROUGHT IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. DURING THE
EVENING...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
IOWA...SPREADING SNOW TOWARDS THE TAF SITES. FOR NOW JUST BROUGHT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR AROUND 03Z IN THE SNOW...SINCE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW LOOKS TO TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST DUE TO THE
SYSTEMS TRACK...WHICH WILL HELP PULL THE STRATUS THAT GETS STUCK
ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 TODAY INTO THE TAF SITES. BROUGHT CEILINGS
DOWN TO MVFR FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1040 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FRONT COMBINED WILL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0
C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP. SURFACE OBS AND A
FEW REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE PTYPE IS MAINLY SNOW...OCCASIONALLY
MIXED WITH SLEET. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIP BAND IS
FIGHTING DRY AIR...BUT PRECIP IS REACHING THE GROUND FROM MEDFORD TO
MARINETTE. THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY SNOW...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP
VSBYS TO 2SM IN SPOTS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AN AREA OF CLEARING
IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE FAR WESTERN UPPER
PENINSULA. THEN ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA IS
DIVING SOUTHEAST AND WILL REACH N-C WISCONSIN BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.
PRECIP AND SKY TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE AND MID-LEVEL FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
EVENING. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST UNTIL
7PM WHEN THINK ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. MODELS APPEAR TO BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS STRATUS. BUT ONCE IT MOVES IN...THINK OVERCAST CONDITIONS
WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE SNOWBELT.
BUT LOOKING AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE DEPTH IS SHALLOW BELOW
850MB SO AM SKEPTICAL THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR. BUT DOES NOT TAKE
MUCH THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...SO LEFT IN THE FORECAST TO MATCH UP
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.
SATURDAY...SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE U.P. BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY...THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE HARD TO REMOVE ESPECIALLY
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER.
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN WITH NW WINDS IN PLACE...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
MEAN FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS
FORECAST IS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF
CLIPPER SYSTEMS IMPACT THE AREA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WITH
THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR SOUTHWEST...CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE LOW AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE 12Z GFS
ONLY HAD SMALL QPF IN PARTS OF MARATHON COUNTY AND WOOD COUNTY
06Z-12Z SUNDAY...OTHER MODELS GENERALLY HAD QPF ACROSS MOST OR ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT CLOSE TO WHAT SURROUNDING OFFICES HAD
ALONG OUR BORDERS AND WHAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAD FOR POPS
AND QPF. THIS RESULTED IN A SMALLER CHANGE TO FORECAST SNOW
TOTALS THAN WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH HAD LESS THAN AN INCH EVEN IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WOULD SUGGEST.
SNOW TOTALS ARE EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WENT
NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. ONCE IT DEPARTS THERE
COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...BUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT
IS RATHER POOR.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS MAY NOT BE AS SOLID/PERSISTENT AS
EARLIER EXPECTED. WL PROBABLY SEE SOME BREAK IN LOWER CIGS
OVERNIGHT...SO WL ADD TO THE TAFS. SFC OBS SUGGEST A BAND OF S- WL
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT SWD ACRS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015
...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN IN ALL AREAS. THE SECOND SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY. OTHERWISE...VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...EVENING UPDATE...
WE SAW RECORD HEAT TODAY AT A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING OXNARD WITH A
HIGH OF 85 BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 84 BACK IN 1951 FOR THIS DATE.
ALSO SANTA BARBARA AP TIED THE OLD RECORD AT 79 DEGREES SET A FEW
YEARS BACK IN 2012 AND 1951. LASTLY PASO ROBLES REACHED 78 DEGREES
WHICH WAS A NEW RECORD BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 76 DEGREES SET IN
2014. AS FAR AS THE WINDS...THEY HAVE DROPPED OFF RAPIDLY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE LAX-DAG WAS STILL WEAKLY OFFSHORE BUT TRENDING NEARLY
+4 MB OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW LOCATED AROUND 300 MILES WEST OF
BAJA WILL START TO ROTATE TO THE NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS
PUSHED EASTWARD. AS USUAL...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME
HANDLING MANY DETAILS WITH ANY WET SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH MOST ALL THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING STEADY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA INITIALLY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FROM THE SOUTH OVER LA COUNTY AND THEN
PIVOTING NORTH TOWARDS SLO COUNTY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHILE COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THE LATEST 00Z NAM CONCERNS ME A BIT IN RESPECT TO POSSIBLE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 500 MB TEMPS LOWER
TO AROUND -22 DEGREES C AND THERE ARE A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY STRONG
VORT MAX`S MOVING OVER THE SO CAL BIGHT. ALSO...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WOULD THINK WITH THIS UPPER LOW. HAVE RAN
SOME LOCAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE SO CAL BIGHT AND COASTAL
AREAS AND EXCEPT FOR THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE QPF
ALONE AND LET THE MID SHIFT LOOK AT LOCAL HIGH RES MODELS TO PICK UP
ON SOME CONVECTIVE AREAS. ONE OTHER INTERESTING NOTE...THERE IS SOME
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING WINDS WITH THIS UPPER LOW. SO IF A FEW
STORMS DO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS CAN`T BE RULED OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
IN RESPECT TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST...IT LOOKS TO BE IN GREAT
SHAPE FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. AGAIN...WILL HAVE THE MID SHIFT
LOOK AT MORE HIGH RES DATA INCLUDING RAP AND HRRR INCLUDING THE
LOCAL 4KM WRF.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW W OF BAJA WILL START
TO MOVE NW ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS SOCAL. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF LA COUNTY FOR THE MONDAY EVENING TIME
PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 0.25"-0.50" OF RAIN IN THESE
AREAS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS W OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES N. NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ALTITUDE. NO T-STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS THEIR WILL BE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (LESS THAN
500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS) AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED IF THERE IS A T-STORM OR TWO WELL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY
EVENING.
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY WERE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS A WEAK RIDGE POPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND FEWER CLOUDS WILL
HELP WITH THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER
AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST ALSO HAS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND FORECASTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO
THE SE AND RIDGING/OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...26/06Z...
AT 0520Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.
OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAFS. REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING
PRECIPITATION AND THE EFFECT ON WIND FLOW AND VSBY. AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING IN LOS ANGELES
COUNTY 22Z-00Z AND MOVING NORTH TOWARD SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY BY
06Z. CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD THOUGH THERE IS A THIRTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 23Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING
PRECIPITATION AND THE EFFECT ON WIND FLOW AND VSBY. AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING 22Z-00Z. CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH THERE IS A
THIRTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 23Z. A THIRTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KTS 09Z-18Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING
PRECIPITATION AND THE EFFECT ON WIND FLOW AND VSBY. AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING 22Z-00Z. CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH THERE IS A
THIRTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 23Z.
.MARINE...25/745 PM...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF CENTRAL BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE
AREA AND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WIND GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND SANTA MONICA
BASIN. OTHERWISE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THRU THRU FRI AS NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP AND THEN STRENGTHEN.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KAPLAN/SUKUP
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
810 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN IN ALL AREAS. THE SECOND SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY. OTHERWISE...VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...EVENING UPDATE...
WE SAW RECORD HEAT TODAY AT A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING OXNARD WITH A
HIGH OF 85 BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 84 BACK IN 1951 FOR THIS DATE.
ALSO SANTA BARBARA AP TIED THE OLD RECORD AT 79 DEGREES SET A FEW
YEARS BACK IN 2012 AND 1951. LASTLY PASO ROBLES REACHED 78 DEGREES
WHICH WAS A NEW RECORD BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 76 DEGREES SET IN
2014. AS FAR AS THE WINDS...THEY HAVE DROPPED OFF RAPIDLY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE LAX-DAG WAS STILL WEAKLY OFFSHORE BUT TRENDING NEARLY
+4 MB OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW LOCATED AROUND 300 MILES WEST OF
BAJA WILL START TO ROTATE TO THE NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS
PUSHED EASTWARD. AS USUAL...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME
HANDLING MANY DETAILS WITH ANY WET SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH MOST ALL THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING STEADY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA INITIALLY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FROM THE SOUTH OVER LA COUNTY AND THEN
PIVOTING NORTH TOWARDS SLO COUNTY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHILE COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THE LATEST 00Z NAM CONCERNS ME A BIT IN RESPECT TO POSSIBLE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 500 MB TEMPS LOWER
TO AROUND -22 DEGREES C AND THERE ARE A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY STRONG
VORT MAX`S MOVING OVER THE SO CAL BIGHT. ALSO...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WOULD THINK WITH THIS UPPER LOW. HAVE RAN
SOME LOCAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE SO CAL BIGHT AND COASTAL
AREAS AND EXCEPT FOR THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE QPF
ALONE AND LET THE MID SHIFT LOOK AT LOCAL HIGH RES MODELS TO PICK UP
ON SOME CONVECTIVE AREAS. ONE OTHER INTERESTING NOTE...THERE IS SOME
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING WINDS WITH THIS UPPER LOW. SO IF A FEW
STORMS DO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS CAN`T BE RULED OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
IN RESPECT TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST...IT LOOKS TO BE IN GREAT
SHAPE FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. AGAIN...WILL HAVE THE MID SHIFT
LOOK AT MORE HIGH RES DATA INCLUDING RAP AND HRRR INCLUDING THE
LOCAL 4KM WRF.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW W OF BAJA WILL START
TO MOVE NW ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS SOCAL. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF LA COUNTY FOR THE MONDAY EVENING TIME
PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 0.25"-0.50" OF RAIN IN THESE
AREAS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS W OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES N. NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ALTITUDE. NO T-STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS THEIR WILL BE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (LESS THAN
500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS) AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED IF THERE IS A T-STORM OR TWO WELL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY
EVENING.
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY WERE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS A WEAK RIDGE POPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND FEWER CLOUDS WILL
HELP WITH THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER
AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST ALSO HAS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND FORECASTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO
THE SE AND RIDGING/OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...26/0050Z...
AT 0030Z THERE WAS NO INVERSION AT KLAX.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAFS. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING VFR
CLOUD CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 19Z FOR LOS
ANGELES COUNTY. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY NIGHT
INITIALLY FROM LOS ANGELES COUNTY...THEN WORKING NORTH INTO SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT.
KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF. EXPECT VFR CLOUD
COVER OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 19Z. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR -RA BY 23Z
MONDAY. 30 PERCENT THAT SE-E WIND DIRECTION WILL BE OVER 7 KTS
BETWEEN 09Z-18Z.
KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF. EXPECT VFR CLOUD
COVER OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 19Z. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR -RA BY 23Z
MONDAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ISSUES OVER NEXT 24 HOURS.
.MARINE...25/745 PM...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF CENTRAL BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE
AREA AND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WIND GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND SANTA MONICA
BASIN. OTHERWISE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THRU THRU FRI AS NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP AND THEN STRENGTHEN.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KAPLAN/SUKUP
AVIATION...KAPLAN
MARINE...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
327 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
Latest surface analysis indicating weak high pressure centered from
central lower Michigan southwest through northeast Missouri. Our
next weather system was already producing some light snow across
parts of central Minnesota...which was tracking southeast early this
morning. The main short term forecast concern will be with this weak
upper level system that will track across our area today and the
precip chances with it.
Models have trended a bit further south and west with the upper wave
along with the fairly compact area of lift associated with it.
Forcing in the 700-500 mb layer compact but short lived with this
system and based on the latest HRRR and RAP solutions, it appears
the threat (20-30 POPs) for light snow will track southeast into our
area later this morning and then shift into east central Illinois by
this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings have all trended a
bit deeper with the moisture with this system and cold enough to
support light snow except over far southwest Illinois where there
may be a mix of rain and snow for a few hours as surface temps rise
into the middle 30s.
Despite the decent low to mid level forcing with this wave, QPF
amounts will be light with any snow accumulations of less than an
inch. As the better forcing shifts off to our east, we start to lose
the ice crystals in the upper levels of the clouds that would support
mainly light snow. Nam time-height cross sections showing some very
weak lift tracking thru the area late this afternoon in the 925-850
mb layer so not the greatest setup for freezing drizzle but will
need to be watched later this afternoon and evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
Elongated short wave will gradually shift east of IL by dawn Tuesday
with light snow chances shifting east of IL into Indiana. Low clouds
will be slow to clear from the west however on Tue with mostly
cloudy skies generally prevailing, with IL river valley having
better chance of becoming partly sunny during Tue afternoon.
Seasonable highs in the middle to upper 30s Tue with north winds 8-15
mph. Low clouds to continue to decrease Tue night as weak surface
high pressure ridge sets up over IL by Tue evening. Lows Tue night
in the lower to middle 20s.
Upper level ridging into IL Wed will give partly to mostly sunny
skies, while 1005 mb surface low pressure moving east into the
central plains Wed to give breezy sse winds of milder air into the
region with highs in the 40s Wed (ranging from lower 40s ne counties
to near 50F from Jacksonville sw). Low pressure to move east across
central IL during Wed night and bring a chance of light rain with
lows staying above freezing in the mid to upper 30s. Light rain
chances to diminish from west to east during Thu and could see light
snow chances too over northern counties before ending as cooler air
arrives on back side of low pressure moving into the southern Great
Lakes region. Highs Thu range from upper 30s to near 40F IL river
valley to upper 40s in southeast IL.
Dry conditions and cooler temps return to central/se IL from Thu
night thru Fri night as high pressure settles into the ohio river
valley by Friday evening. Highs Fri back to seasonable levels for
late Jan in the mid to upper 30s. Continued slight chances of light
snow Sat and Sat night as cold front moves through. A cutoff upper
level low in the sw states late this week will move east and keeps
brunt of its qpf south of central IL, though some models have us on
northern edge of ligher qpf this weekend. Also have a northern
stream clipper system moving through the Great Lakes Sat and Sat
night that drives a cold front through IL. May need to increase
chances of light snow this weekend, though timing issues and also
question if any phasing can take place bettern stronger southern
stream system and weakern northern stream short wave. Also southern
areas could see a mix of precipitation on Sat before colder air
arrives Sat night. MEX/GFS appears too warm with temps behind cold
front Sun/Mon and oddly doesn`t cool it off much from Sat. ECWMF/ECE
model cools off much more Sun/Mon. Did not go as cold as this model,
but have temperatures dropping from highs in upper 30s to around 40F
Sat to the upper 20s/lower 30s Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
Clearing area associated with weak ridge building into Illinois
has slowed its southeast progress near I-55. High clouds from
next cliper system already beginning to cross Mississippi River
and will likely overspread sites experiencing clearing over next
few hours.
NAM from 00z suggests that partial clearing will resume its
progress slowly southeast after 06z, but that will be followed by
MVFR deck from next system during the day Monday. Model suite from
00z a bit further south with low measurable pops and impacts all
TAF sites at one time or another. Forecast soundings suggest that
there may still be some potential for FZDZ given the dry air in
crystal formation layer. Will include about a 4-hr tempo group for
I-74 terminals for -SN at this time but later shifts will need to
monitor closely.
Winds are diminishing quickly as the gradient weakens as the
surface ridge moves in. Winds should shift around to the south
Monday and then back to the northwest after the cold front passage
associated with the cliper which will likely be just beyond the
valid time of this set of terminals.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1154 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
820 PM CST
PCPN IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
STILL RATHER BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA...THE GENERAL TREND OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FOR WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO DROP OFF WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES
AND SOME COOLER AIR FILTERING IN AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT TODAY`S PRECIPITATION
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. THE
LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE NEXT CLIPPER
DROPPING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...WITH SOME MODEST LIFT IN THE
ZONE AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER.
SO HAVE INCREASED POPS...WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALSO...THE THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...WITH A
DEEP ENOUGH SATURATED LAYER TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW...AND LESSER
CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO...HAVE REMOVED THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE MENTION FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. STILL FEEL THAT THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TOMORROW NIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ALOFT LOWERS THE DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE
THE CHANCE FOR ICE PRODUCTION IN THE SATURATED LAYER. WHILE POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED...THERE IS LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...SO ACTUAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...ONLY
PERHAPS A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
KREIN
&&
.SHORT TERM...
206 PM CST
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
COOL AIR HAS STRUGGLED TO SLIDE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER TEMPS
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL INTO THE UPR 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWFA TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW 30S WITH
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS NOT MUCH MORE THAN 1 TO 2 DEGREES. NORTH OF
I-80 PRECIP IS MAINLY FLURRIES...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX SLOWLY
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN IL...AND WILL STEADILY BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.
SFC RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SAG SOUTH AND
EXPAND TO COVER A PORTION OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MISSOURI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. WHILE SOME EROSION TO THE CLOUDS IS PROBABLE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
MON. CURRENTLY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE MID/UPR
TEENS...HOWEVER THIS WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
MON.
THE BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS MON MORNING WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING MON AFTN/EVE. GUIDANCE HAS MAINTAINED A
PROGRESSIVE LOOK TO THIS NEXT WAVE...HOWEVER OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
ARE EQUALLY BULLISH ON EROSION OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW
LAYERS OF THE ATMOS LATE MON NGT. HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT P-TYPE MON
AFTN/EVE. AT THE ONSET MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THRU THE -10
DEG C LAYER AND TOUCH THE FAVORED DGZ...HOWEVER THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW MON EVE. ALONG WITH THE LACK OF GOOD
LIFT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT PRECIP
MAY BE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/LGT-SNOW.
A WEAK THERMAL RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH OVERHEAD MON AFTN...AS LLVL FLOW
TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY. TEMPS SHUD HOVER ARND FREEZING...HOWEVER THIS
WILL HINGE ON CLOUD COVER ARRIVAL AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP. IF THIS
IS DELAYED...TEMPS COULD PUSH A FEW DEGREES WARMER MON EARLY AFTN.
HEIGHTS SLOWLY INCREASE MON NGT...WITH THE MOISTURE PEELING EAST
ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. AT THIS TIME HAVE MAINTAINED A
MENTION OF LGT SNOW OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MON NGT...BUT COULD
END UP WITH A DRY PERIOD.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
206 PM CST
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WEAKENING WITH RIDGING
EXPANDING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHUD PLACE THE BULK
OF THE REGION INTO A WEAK SFC RIDGE TUE/WED. WED AFTN THE SFC RIDGE
QUICKLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST...WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME WARM AIR TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWFA AND PUSH SFC TEMPS CLOSE TO 40 DEG.
WITH A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP WED NGT/THUR...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A ROBUST
MID-LVL VORT WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE
PLAINS WED EVE. GUIDANCE THEN FURTHER STRENGTHENS THIS WAVE AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THUR. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS
THAT PRECIP COULD START AS MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...THEN
DYNAMICALLY COOL OVERNIGHT INTO THUR AND TRANSITION PRECIP OVER TO
LGT SNOW.
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 20S/LOW
30S.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* BRIEF HIGH-END MVFR CIGS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD SCATTER BY
SUNRISE.
* PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS WHICH LINGER TONIGHT.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN
A LAKE-INDUCED PLUME OF MVFR STRATOCU FROM ABOUT ORD EAST...WITH
BASES AROUND 2500 FT. THESE CIGS WILL LIKELY AFFECT ORD/MDW/GYY
UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE...WHEN MODELS DEPICT NORTHEAST FLOW QUICKLY
BECOMING DISORGANIZED WITH APPROACH OF SFC RIDGE. SFC WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS...GENERALLY FLOPPING
FROM LIGHT NORTHERLY TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY MID-DAY.
IR SATELLITE PICS ALREADY SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVELS
ARE INITIALLY DRY AND WILL TAKE SOME WORK TO SATURATE FROM ABOVE
AS MID-LEVEL FORCING INCREASES MID-DAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING DURING THE
PERIOD...THOUGH A COMBINATION OF WEAKENING FORCING AND FORCING
FOCUSED BELOW TEMP LAYER CONDUCIVE TO LARGER SNOWFLAKE GROWTH
SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. WHILE A FEW INCONSEQUENTIAL
FLURRIES COULD BEGIN SOONER...THE TIMING OF THE PERIOD MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIG/POSSIBLE IFR VSBY LOOKS
TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT RFD...AND DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING FOR CHICAGO TERMINALS. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING AT RFD AND BY LATE EVENING FOR CHICAGO TERMINALS...WITH
LOSS OF STRONGER LIFT AND DRYING IN MID-LEVELS. SOME INDICATION
THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE SNOW
ENDS ESPECIALLY AT RFD WHERE MID-LEVELS DRY A LITTLE MORE
QUICKLY...THOUGH MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE DEGREE OF SATURATION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FZDZ WOULD OCCUR.
IT DOES HOWEVER APPEAR THAT SOME SORT OF HIGH-IFR OR LOW-MVFR CIG
MAY LINGER DURING THE NIGHT.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-LOW IN SNOW TIMING/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY THEN CHANCE OF -RASN AND MVFR/IFR
AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW. MVFR LIKELY/IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY EARLY.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/MVFR CIGS.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
131 PM CST
A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 30-35 KT CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AND THESE WINDS LOOK TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE A DIMINISHING TREND BEGINS
EARLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WEAKENING LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD JUST
WEST OF THE LAKE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE DURING THIS PERIOD. LATER IN
THE WEEK ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1121 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
Have tweaked temps/winds/sky for tonight and flurries for
tomorrow. For most part current package is on track.
Precip coming to an end as surface system over central KY
continues to pull away from Illinois. Still could be a snow or
rain shower over the next several hours east of I-57, but for the
most part any significant precip has ended. Weak ridge is building
into Illinois from the northeast scattering out the cloudcover
over western Illinois this evening. This partial clearing will
likely spread only slowly south and east and then be overtaken by
clouds associated with next quick system for Monday. Moisture
remains quite limited with this second cliper and for now will
keep only flurry wording. Forecast soundings from 18z NAM and GFS
suggest that there also could be some freezing drizzle/sprinkles as the
atmospheric column is expected to be quite dry above -8C and it
may be difficult to form ice crystals. Will have to look closer at
this potential once the full 00z model suite has been analyzed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
Area of low pressure which has brought our precipitation was
centered near Carbondale early this afternoon. Rain/snow transition
line has been struggling to move any further south, and in fact
areas from Macomb to Bloomington which had switched over were
starting to mix with rain again. Temperatures have been above
freezing over most of the snow area and accumulations have been
minor and slushy, but some more substantial 1-2 inch totals have
occurred north of Galesburg where temperatures are now below
freezing. The deformation band of snow has been weakening some the
last few hours, and there is a substantial hole in the precip over
the central 2/3 of the forecast area.
The RAP model shows a further weakening of the the deformation band
over the next few hours, and actually has the entire CWA dry by 6
pm. Have some concerns that may be too quick across the southeast,
as the upper wave continues to dig across southeast Missouri, and
have lingered some likely PoP`s down there slightly beyond that time
frame, but reduced PoP`s to below 20% by 9 pm.
Overnight, models are trying to show some substantial clearing over
most of the forecast area beginning late evening. While there is
some breakup of the clouds upstream across Wisconsin, it is not
completely clear up there and the north/northeast flow is not
especially conducive to rapid clearing. Have gone with partly cloudy
skies overnight across the northwest half of the forecast area, but
clouds will already been increasing ahead of the next clipper which
will be dropping southeast into northern Minnesota overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
A couple of cooler days are on tap across central and southeast
Illinois in the wake of today`s clipper. There is still a chance we
may see a few snow flakes or sprinkles on Monday as a shearing
upper-level wave, currently diving across the Canadian Prairies,
passes through the Great Lakes region and parts of the Midwest.
However, looking at forecast soundings, there will be a very small
window of opportunity where ice crystals will be present, suggesting
the chance of measurable precipitation is quite low. So, for now,
will only carry a chance of flurries Monday across the northern
portion of the forecast area as the very sheared wave passes to our
north. It is definitely possible that we will see nothing at all, or
perhaps some light drizzle or freezing drizzle (depending on surface
temperatures) due to the paucity of ice crystals.
Temperatures will warm heading into midweek as the persistent
amplified upper-level flow briefly turns more zonal, and a system
approaches from the Pacific coast. This system will mainly pose a
rain threat as it moves through Wednesday night into Thursday. A
brief period of snow is not out of the question later Thursday as
cold air filters in behind the system, but forecast soundings
currently suggest the moisture depth will be too shallow to support
precipitation (no ice crystals) by the time the thermal profile
would support snow.
Another cool down is expected in the wake of the midweek system, but
temperatures should still be near normal for late January. The
eastern North American mean trof that has been in place will try to
reestablish itself by the weekend. A clipper type wave in the
returning northwest upper-level flow may bring a chance of snow to
the area over the weekend. However, the current storm track keeps
the best snow chances to our north, and have only included a slight
chance of snow at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
Clearing area associated with weak ridge building into Illinois
has slowed its southeast progress near I-55. High clouds from
next cliper system already beginning to cross Mississippi River
and will likely overspread sites experiencing clearing over next
few hours.
NAM from 00z suggests that partial clearing will resume its
progress slowly southeast after 06z, but that will be followed by
MVFR deck from next system during the day Monday. Model suite from
00z a bit further south with low measurable pops and impacts all
TAF sites at one time or another. Forecast soundings suggest that
there may still be some potential for FZDZ given the dry air in
crystal formation layer. Will include about a 4-hr tempo group for
I-74 terminals for -SN at this time but later shifts will need to
monitor closely.
Winds are diminishing quickly as the gradient weakens as the
surface ridge moves in. Winds should shift around to the south
Monday and then back to the northwest after the cold front passage
associated with the cliper which will likely be just beyond the
valid time of this set of terminals.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barker
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
319 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FZDZ
TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE FROM 10Z TO 14Z WITH SOME
LINGERING POPS THROUGH 15Z NEAR THE ALO AREA. LEANED TOWARD A
BLEND OF THE NAM12/RAP FOR POPS TODAY AND TOWARDS THE WARMER
RAP/ECMWF FOR TEMPS.
THE RAP AND NAM MCW/FOD SOUNDINGS HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING
COMPLETELY SATURATED AS THEY DEPICT A DEEP DRY LAYER BETWEEN 850-
650MB. CERTAINLY SATURATED BELOW 850MB AND ABOVE 650MB...SO SEEDER
FEEDER POTENTIAL EXISTS BUT FORCING WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
VERY WEAK AND ANY SNOW WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT THROUGH
THIS DRY LAYER. IT MAY SNOW FOR A SHORT STINT BY AROUND 12Z-13Z ONCE
THE COLUMN COMPLETELY SATURATES NEAR MCW/ALO AREA BUT THE RAP KEEPS
THE DRY LAYER THROUGH THE ENTIRE MORNING. AS A RESULT...WITH THE
LACK OF ANY ICE INTRODUCTION...HAVE MENTION OF FZDZ THIS MORNING.
ONLY A MINOR TRAVEL CONCERN WITH THE FZDZ AS EXPECTING WARMER
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ADVECT IN AND WITH THE VERY QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND SPORADIC AT BEST.
PLUS...MUCH OF THE PRECIP RETURNS ON RADAR IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ARE
NOT REACHING THE GROUND WITH ONLY A COUPLE SPOTS REPORTING -SN
ATTM.
WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE RAP/ECMWF FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.
THE NAM/GFS/SREF SEEMED TOO COLD FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GOOD
MIXING AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD PUT TEMPS BACK IN THE 50S FOR THE
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
MAIN THEMES FOR THE WEEK CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE SLIDING NEARLY DUE SOUTH TOWARD US WILL BE EAST OF THE
REGION WITH THE H500/H700 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
ALMOST IMMEDIATELY ANOTHER LEE SIDE TROUGH/BOUNDARY WILL FORM
ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ENHANCE SOME CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR WITH
RATHER MILD READINGS FOR JANUARY IN THE 20S NORTHEAST TO 30S
SOUTH. BY TOMORROW...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
WILL PROMOTE LITTLE MIXING WITH ANY WARMING SOLELY DUE TO
INSOLATION. THUS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY
WITH A SUN CLOUD MIX. PATTERN FOR US REMAINS RATHER BENIGN FOR A
FEW MORE DAYS...COMPARED TO EAST COAST...AND WE SHOULD BEGIN A
NICE WARMING TREND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z WED BOTH GFS/00Z EURO INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL STREAM ACROSS MOST OF IOWA. A SFC WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL IOWA KEEPING THE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR THROUGH THE NOON HOUR. EURO H850 TEMPS WARM CONSIDERABLY TO
+10C TO +12C WITH GFS +6C TO +8C THROUGH 18Z WITH SOME COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR BOTH MODELS AS CLOUDS THICKEN. SIMILAR TO JAN
16TH...AM EXPECTING STRONG WARMING TO OUR SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
GENERALLY NOT BE MODIFIED MUCH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO OUR
AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LAG WARMTH POTENTIAL AS WITH PREVIOUS
SIMILAR EVENT. SUNDAY HIGHS TO OUR SOUTHWEST WERE ALREADY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH 4C TO 6C H850 TEMPS. HAVE RAISED TMAX FOR
WED TO LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST FOR NOW AND THIS MAY
BE TOO COOL. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW WED NIGHT ONE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST BY MORNING WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DRIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER THE EAST DURING THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN EURO H850 WINDS
QUITE STRONG WITH 45 TO NEAR 50 KTS EARLY IN THE DAY REMAINING
NEAR 45KTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LIKELY THAT SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL BE NEAR 2O TO 25 MPH WITH GUST POTENTIAL ABOVE 40 KTS.
DESPITE THE EURO SHOWING A STRONGER SOLN THAN THE 00Z GFS...GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEARLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY AND MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SOLNS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL PACKAGES. BREEZY DAY
NONE THE LESS. MORE WAVE ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEAST FROM THE POLAR
ANCHOR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY AND LATE SUNDAY. THERE
IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE H500
VORTEX AS IT DEEPENS AND EXPANDS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE 00Z EURO DROPS ONE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH A SECOND FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL H500 WAVE BY 12Z SUNDAY.
PROGGED H850 TEMPS PLUMMET TO -20C TO -26C MONDAY. NEITHER THE GEM
NOR THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS SUPPORT THE SAME COLD SOLUTION OF THE
EURO FOR NOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OF THE MEX GUIDANCE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT THE GEM DEVELOPS A DECENT STORM PASSING JUST
TO OUR EAST WHILE THE EURO SHEARS THE SYSTEM EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. WILL NEED TO EVALUATE OVER THE COMING DAYS AND
TAKE A MORE MODEST APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES FOR NOW AS PAST TWO
NIGHTS THERE HAS BEEN NO CONSISTENCY OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. BETTER CLARITY IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
&&
.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
LOW STRATUS WILL KEEP LOW MVFR CEILINGS AT SITES THROUGH MOST OF
PERIOD. NORTHER SITES...KMCW AND KALO MAY SEE CEILINGS DROP TO
IFR BRIEFLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE IFR CEILINGS WILL BE BRIEF. WESTERN SITES KFOD
AND KDSM WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR NEAR 18Z...THOUGH EASTERN
SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...LIFTING NEAR
00Z...THOUGH MAY HAVE BEEN TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH IMPROVEMENT OF
CEILINGS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z AND WILL BE
STRONG...NEAR 15 KTS THROUGH AFTERNOON AT SITES.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER PART. THE RUB HERE
IS THAT THE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN TAKING HITS LATELY WITH THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A ONCE DISCARDED SOLUTION...MAINLY SEEN EARLIER IN
THE GFS...HAS RETURNED WITH SOME LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF.
EARLY ON...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A FAST FLOW OF ENERGY ROILS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PATH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
VORT STREAM IS SHUNTED EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS
FROM A WEAKENING SOUTHERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THEN OVER THE LOWER OHIO BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A
DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDE EAST.
THIS FEATURE RAMPS UP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS
TROUGH CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT FLOW TO
FOLLOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NATION A LARGE
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS NOW DEPICTED...PARTICULARLY BY
THE LATEST ECMWF...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FLOW RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS NOW SHOW SOME
CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS
OUT. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A
MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...A BLEND
OF THE MODELS WAS PREFERRED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY CONCERNS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE
STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF
SLIDING NORTHEAST WHILE SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
BUT THAT WILL SURELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.
THE CR GRID LOAD MADE FOR AN OKAY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GRIDS WITH CHANGES MADE PRIMARILY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY IN TERMS OF CIGS AS SITES HAVE BEEN AROUND OR
MVFR CEILINGS THUS FAR TONIGHT. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
TO WE SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW HAVE
SITES GOING IFR BY 10 TO 11 Z BEFORE SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION IS TRACKING OVER EASTERN KY THIS HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO USHER IN
STRONGER NW FLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY TODAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
343 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY IN TERMS OF CIGS AS SITES HAVE BEEN AROUND OR
MVFR CEILINGS THUS FAR TONIGHT. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
TO WE SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW HAVE
SITES GOING IFR BY 10 TO 11 Z BEFORE SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION IS TRACKING OVER EASTERN KY THIS HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO USHER IN
STRONGER NW FLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY TODAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
144 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN GRIDS WITH OBS AND TRENDS. RIGHT NOW
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
MOST OF THIS IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH MOST SITES BESIDES BLACK MT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS HOUR. BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN THIS
HOUR IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AS YOU MOVE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KY TONIGHT AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE TREND FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WSR-88D RADAR HOWEVER IS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RETURNS TO OUR WEST WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL KY THIS HOUR. THAT SAID
COMBINE THIS WITH HRRR THAT SHOWS A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND OF THE
PRECIP AS WE MOVE INTO THE MORNING WOULD SUGGEST LIGHTER AMTS AS WE
SWITCH TO SNOW IN THE DAWN HOUR. RIGHT NOW WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR
CHANGES AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
GIVEN THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED TODAY /SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE 50S/...WE JUST REALLY HAVEN/T SEEN A LARGE COOL DOWN
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED RAIN...OR HAVE
ONLY RECEIVED A SMALL AMOUNT. THIS BEING SAID...OTHER THAN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FT...DON/T EXPECT RAIN TO START CHANGING OVER QUITE AS FAST
AS WHAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WORKED TO ADJUST THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR OVERNIGHT...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS BASED ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES AND COOLING DOWNSTREAM...PREVIOUS SNOW PACK...ETC.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE LATEST HRRR /WHICH
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST INITIALIZATION FOR THIS SYSTEM/...AND A LITTLE
INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS...WHICH TRENDED CLOSER TO OVERALL THINKING FOR
THE LOW. THEN...ADJUSTED INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS TO GET THEM WITHIN
BETTER TOLERANCE...INCLUDING BUMPING UP BLACK MOUNTAIN TO 29 DEGREES
AND OTHER TERRAIN ABOVE 2500 FEET TO BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES.
FURTHER MORE...GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF TEMPERATURES FALLING...WENT
AHEAD AND PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE TO 13Z
MONDAY. FROM HERE...USED A MIXTURE OF THE CONS-SHORT AND HAND EDITING
TO ADJUST THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WILL RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOUR DIFFERENCE IN THE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH 12Z /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BLACK MOUNTAIN/...AND LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN FOR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BLACK MOUNTAIN IS
CURRENTLY AT 32 DEGREES...SO THEY MAY START TO MIX WITH SNOW AT ANY
TIME. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
SNOW MIXING IN UNTIL NEAR DAWN...THEN SLOWLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN NOON AND 3PM. BY THIS POINT...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG AMOUNT OF DRY AIR CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE BEST ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WERE LOWERED
ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET TO PICK UP THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. SOME OF THE OTHER RIDGES
ACROSS THE AREA COULD SEE BETWEEN A HALF AN ONE INCH...BUT A MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL ONLY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR LESS. MOST OF THIS IS
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z WHEN THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES COMBINE...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FINALLY
FALL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS. THIS RESULTED IN LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST. BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS...AND THE PWAT VALUES OVERNIGHT BEING AROUND A HALF INCH OR
LESS...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED ANY MENTION OF MODERATE
RAINFALL/SNOWFALL TO LIGHT. JUST NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF EVIDENCE
AT THIS POINT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITIES...THOUGH SNOW COULD
HAVE SOME HEAVIER SPOTS AT TIMES TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST NAM12
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY START TO LOSE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 Z...WITH NOT MUCH LIFT EITHER...ALSO SUPPORTING
LIGHTER INTENSITIES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND MOVING OUR DIRECTION...WITH THE NEXT ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN ABOUT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY IN TERMS OF CIGS AS SITES HAVE BEEN AROUND OR
MVFR CEILINGS THUS FAR TONIGHT. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
TO WE SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW HAVE
SITES GOING IFR BY 10 TO 11 Z BEFORE SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION IS TRACKING OVER EASTERN KY THIS HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO USHER IN
STRONGER NW FLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY TODAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1254 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
GIVEN THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED TODAY /SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE 50S/...WE JUST REALLY HAVEN/T SEEN A LARGE COOL DOWN
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED RAIN...OR HAVE
ONLY RECEIVED A SMALL AMOUNT. THIS BEING SAID...OTHER THAN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FT...DON/T EXPECT RAIN TO START CHANGING OVER QUITE AS FAST
AS WHAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WORKED TO ADJUST THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR OVERNIGHT...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS BASED ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES AND COOLING DOWNSTREAM...PREVIOUS SNOW PACK...ETC.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE LATEST HRRR /WHICH
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST INITIALIZATION FOR THIS SYSTEM/...AND A LITTLE
INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS...WHICH TRENDED CLOSER TO OVERALL THINKING FOR
THE LOW. THEN...ADJUSTED INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS TO GET THEM WITHIN
BETTER TOLERANCE...INCLUDING BUMPING UP BLACK MOUNTAIN TO 29 DEGREES
AND OTHER TERRAIN ABOVE 2500 FEET TO BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES.
FURTHER MORE...GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF TEMPERATURES FALLING...WENT
AHEAD AND PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE TO 13Z
MONDAY. FROM HERE...USED A MIXTURE OF THE CONS-SHORT AND HAND EDITING
TO ADJUST THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WILL RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOUR DIFFERENCE IN THE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH 12Z /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BLACK MOUNTAIN/...AND LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN FOR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BLACK MOUNTAIN IS
CURRENTLY AT 32 DEGREES...SO THEY MAY START TO MIX WITH SNOW AT ANY
TIME. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
SNOW MIXING IN UNTIL NEAR DAWN...THEN SLOWLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN NOON AND 3PM. BY THIS POINT...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG AMOUNT OF DRY AIR CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE BEST ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WERE LOWERED
ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET TO PICK UP THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. SOME OF THE OTHER RIDGES
ACROSS THE AREA COULD SEE BETWEEN A HALF AN ONE INCH...BUT A MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL ONLY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR LESS. MOST OF THIS IS
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z WHEN THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES COMBINE...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FINALLY
FALL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS. THIS RESULTED IN LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST. BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS...AND THE PWAT VALUES OVERNIGHT BEING AROUND A HALF INCH OR
LESS...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED ANY MENTION OF MODERATE
RAINFALL/SNOWFALL TO LIGHT. JUST NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF EVIDENCE
AT THIS POINT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITIES...THOUGH SNOW COULD
HAVE SOME HEAVIER SPOTS AT TIMES TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST NAM12
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY START TO LOSE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 Z...WITH NOT MUCH LIFT EITHER...ALSO SUPPORTING
LIGHTER INTENSITIES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND MOVING OUR DIRECTION...WITH THE NEXT ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN ABOUT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY IN TERMS OF CIGS AS SITES HAVE BEEN AROUND OR
MVFR CEILINGS THUS FAR TONIGHT. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
TO WE SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW HAVE
SITES GOING IFR BY 10 TO 11 Z BEFORE SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION IS TRACKING OVER EASTERN KY THIS HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO USHER IN
STRONGER NW FLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY TODAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1216 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 855 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015
The surface low pressure center now is east of Louisville, with the
airport going over to northerly winds. Those winds will pick up from
the northwest the rest of the night as the gradient tightens up.
Precipitation across our region still is all rain, though just north
of us in IND`s area, seeing some snow reports from a few of the
bordering AWOS`s. HRRR still gives a brief shot at a deformation
band taking a swipe at our counties northeast of Louisville over the
next few hours, but otherwise the precip looks to be rather light,
save for the moderate rain showers along the KY/TN border right now.
Precipitation totals for the day so far are in the 1-2 tenths of an
inch range. This bodes a little better against their being lots of
black ice in the morning, as winds behind the low pressure will act
to dry out the roadways some. However we still have the chance for
freezing drizzle, according to forecast soundings, and this could
create a glaze on its own. Will keep the SPS going and let the mid
shift decide, as road reports are coming in, if an upgrade to a
Traveler`s Advisory is needed before the morning rush hour Monday.
Did another grid update, but forecast still looks on track, so no
need for a zone update.
Issued at 625 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015
Looked through the forecast grids and tweaked toward current
conditions. After leaning towards the high-res consensus models for
the various parameters, ended up coming up with similar numbers for
QPF and snow totals as ongoing forecast. Still more concerned about
the threat for wet roads freezing than snow accumulations,
especially in the area already highlighted by the previous
forecaster. The possible saving grace here will be gusty northwest
winds that may help to dry off some of the roads before they get a
chance to freeze. Will be issuing updates through the evening and
overnight, so stay tuned.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015
...Light wintry precipitation could cause slick spots overnight into
Monday morning...
The surface low associated with a strong PV anomaly is now working
across southern Illinois, and will continue to slide ESE across our
area this evening. Light to occasionally moderate rainfall will
continue late this afternoon and evening ahead of this feature. Most
spots should see around a quarter of an inch of rainfall, with
locaized spots up to a half an inch.
As the system departs to our east tonight, a sharp cold front will
slide NW to SE across our area with rapidly dropping temperatures
into the mid 20s. Enough low level moisture looks to linger during
this time to support a change over to light snow. Can`t rule out
some freezing drizzle as well as saturation only goes up to around
-7 or -8 C, bringing the availability of ice crystals into question.
Either way, the combination of wet roads (from recent heavier
rainfall), and potential for a light snow dusting, or a very thin
glaze of ice could lead to some travel problems ahead of and into
the morning commute. Confidence isn`t overly high in widespread
travel problems, but enough that special mention should be given.
Issued a Special Weather Statement to highlight concerns. If
confidence does become higher, then can`t rule out an upgraded
product with future updates. Overall, kept light snow as the
predominant p-type as we head toward dawn, with generally a half an
inch or less of snow accumulation. Most likely area to see more
problems with slick roads should be east of I-65 and along and north
of I-64.
Expect lingering light snow/flurries/or freezing drizzle along and
east of I-75 through the first part of Monday. Temperatures will
struggle for much of the day under steady cold advection and only
expect highs in the low and mid 30s. Skies should stay mostly cloudy
to cloudy under lingering low clouds.
As we move into Monday evening/Monday night, we`ll watch as the left
exit region of an upper jet dives sharply south southeastward
overnight. As it does so, 1000-700 mb moisture will pool underneath
and should result in some light precipitation across the area,
mostly in the form of light snow. Best location for this looks to be
along and west of I-65 Monday evening, moving to along and east of
I-65 late Monday night.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015
Several light precipitation chances still remain the long term
period as we remain in an unsettled weather pattern.
Tues small vort waves on the back side of a broad upper trough will
create snow shower chances during the morning hours and then
possibly changing over to a rain/snow mix west of I-65/remaining
snow east of I-65 during the afternoon hours. A light snow
accumulation may result from this snow shower activity on Tuesday.
Flurries will likely last into the evening hours.
The next precip chances will come Wed night into Thurs as a clipper
system moves east across the upper Midwest. At this time, the low
associated with this clipper looks to pass to our north and actually
pull up a decent amount of warm air on Wed night. Precip may start
as a brief wintry mix Wed night and then transition to plain rain as
upper 30s and lower 40s temps get pulled into our area. Southerly
winds and a noticeably warmer airmass will result in rain on Thurs
with high temps reaching the upper 40s to around 50. Precipitation
will likely end Thurs night as light snow or a rain/snow mix.
Temps will run slightly below normal Tues/Wed, then a warm day
expected for Thurs, and back to slightly below normal for the end of
the week.
The weekend forecast is much less certain with models backing off of
any major weather systems to bring us notable precip. Have
scaled back POPs to 20% for Sat night/Sun night with snow or
rain/snow being the p-type.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2015
Low-end MVFR and IFR conditions continue early this morning, but
there should be a slow improvement through the TAF period. A cold
front has just pushed through KSDF, and will slide through KBWG and
KLEX in the next couple of hours. This front will bring gusty
northwesterly winds, likely pushing 20-25 knots at times. In
addition, the passage of this front may bring a brief period of
snow, but it does not appear as if it will amount to much more than
a dusting. Clouds have been bouncing around high-end IFR and
fuel-alternate MVFR, but should slowly improve to fuel-alternate
MVFR later this morning at all sites, as drier low-level air works
in behind the front. This MVFR deck will slowly lift through the
day today, with northwesterly winds decreasing through the afternoon
as the low pressure system pushes to the east.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1141 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
GIVEN THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED TODAY /SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE 50S/...WE JUST REALLY HAVEN/T SEEN A LARGE COOL DOWN
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED RAIN...OR HAVE
ONLY RECEIVED A SMALL AMOUNT. THIS BEING SAID...OTHER THAN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FT...DON/T EXPECT RAIN TO START CHANGING OVER QUITE AS FAST
AS WHAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WORKED TO ADJUST THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR OVERNIGHT...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS BASED ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES AND COOLING DOWNSTREAM...PREVIOUS SNOW PACK...ETC.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE LATEST HRRR /WHICH
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST INITIALIZATION FOR THIS SYSTEM/...AND A LITTLE
INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS...WHICH TRENDED CLOSER TO OVERALL THINKING FOR
THE LOW. THEN...ADJUSTED INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS TO GET THEM WITHIN
BETTER TOLERANCE...INCLUDING BUMPING UP BLACK MOUNTAIN TO 29 DEGREES
AND OTHER TERRAIN ABOVE 2500 FEET TO BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES.
FURTHER MORE...GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF TEMPERATURES FALLING...WENT
AHEAD AND PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE TO 13Z
MONDAY. FROM HERE...USED A MIXTURE OF THE CONS-SHORT AND HAND EDITING
TO ADJUST THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WILL RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOUR DIFFERENCE IN THE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH 12Z /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BLACK MOUNTAIN/...AND LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN FOR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BLACK MOUNTAIN IS
CURRENTLY AT 32 DEGREES...SO THEY MAY START TO MIX WITH SNOW AT ANY
TIME. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
SNOW MIXING IN UNTIL NEAR DAWN...THEN SLOWLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN NOON AND 3PM. BY THIS POINT...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG AMOUNT OF DRY AIR CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE BEST ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WERE LOWERED
ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET TO PICK UP THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. SOME OF THE OTHER RIDGES
ACROSS THE AREA COULD SEE BETWEEN A HALF AN ONE INCH...BUT A MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL ONLY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR LESS. MOST OF THIS IS
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z WHEN THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES COMBINE...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FINALLY
FALL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS. THIS RESULTED IN LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST. BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS...AND THE PWAT VALUES OVERNIGHT BEING AROUND A HALF INCH OR
LESS...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED ANY MENTION OF MODERATE
RAINFALL/SNOWFALL TO LIGHT. JUST NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF EVIDENCE
AT THIS POINT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITIES...THOUGH SNOW COULD
HAVE SOME HEAVIER SPOTS AT TIMES TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST NAM12
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY START TO LOSE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 Z...WITH NOT MUCH LIFT EITHER...ALSO SUPPORTING
LIGHTER INTENSITIES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND MOVING OUR DIRECTION...WITH THE NEXT ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN ABOUT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL INCLUDE DROPPING CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT. WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THROUGH ABOUT 6Z
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM RESULTING IN A LONGER TIME FOR LOWER CIGS DOWNSTREAM TO REACH
THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO NOW REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 4 AND
7Z TONIGHT...SLOWLY DROPPING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES AND THE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.
EXPECT AIRFIELD MINIMUM CIGS /OR JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE/ TO
ARRIVE BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
IT IS ALSO AT THIS POINT THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY MAKE THE TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWEST
VISIBILITIES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING THIS CHANGEOVER PERIOD...BUT
COULD FLUCTUATE ANYWHERE BETWEEN MVFR AND AIRPORT MINIMUMS DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF THE BAND OF PRECIP PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY TOMORROW IN SOME LOCATIONS. SNOW
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AND TAPER OFF LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GENERALLY AFTER 18Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1138 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
GIVEN THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED TODAY /SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE 50S/...WE JUST REALLY HAVEN/T SEEN A LARGE COOL DOWN
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED RAIN...OR HAVE
ONLY RECEIVED A SMALL AMOUNT. THIS BEING SAID...OTHER THAN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FT...DON/T EXPECT RAIN TO START CHANGING OVER QUITE AS FAST
AS WHAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WORKED TO ADJUST THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR OVERNIGHT...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS BASED ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES AND COOLING DOWNSTREAM...PREVIOUS SNOW PACK...ETC.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE LATEST HRRR /WHICH
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST INITIALIZATION FOR THIS SYSTEM/...AND A LITTLE
INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS...WHICH TRENDED CLOSER TO OVERALL THINKING FOR
THE LOW. THEN...ADJUSTED INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS TO GET THEM WITHIN
BETTER TOLERANCE...INCLUDING BUMPING UP BLACK MOUNTAIN TO 29 DEGREES
AND OTHER TERRAIN ABOVE 2500 FEET TO BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES.
FURTHER MORE...GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF TEMPERATURES FALLING...WENT
AHEAD AND PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE TO 13Z
MONDAY. FROM HERE...USED A MIXTURE OF THE CONS-SHORT AND HAND EDITING
TO ADJUST THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WILL RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOUR DIFFERENCE IN THE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH 12Z /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BLACK MOUNTAIN/...AND LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN FOR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BLACK MOUNTAIN IS
CURRENTLY AT 32 DEGREES...SO THEY MAY START TO MIX WITH SNOW AT ANY
TIME. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
SNOW MIXING IN UNTIL NEAR DAWN...THEN SLOWLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN NOON AND 3PM. BY THIS POINT...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG AMOUNT OF DRY AIR CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE BEST ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WERE LOWERED
ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET TO PICK UP THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. SOME OF THE OTHER RIDGES
ACROSS THE AREA COULD SEE BETWEEN A HALF AN ONE INCH...BUT A MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL ONLY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR LESS. MOST OF THIS IS
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z WHEN THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES COMBINE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS. THIS RESULTED IN LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST. BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS...AND THE PWAT VALUES OVERNIGHT BEING AROUND A HALF INCH OR
LESS...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED ANY MENTION OF MODERATE
RAINFALL/SNOWFALL TO LIGHT. JUST NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF EVIDENCE
AT THIS POINT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITIES...THOUGH SNOW COULD
HAVE SOME HEAVIER SPOTS AT TIMES TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST NAM12
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY START TO LOSE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 Z...WITH NOT MUCH LIFT EITHER...ALSO SUPPORTING
LIGHTER INTENSITIES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND MOVING OUR DIRECTION...WITH THE NEXT ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN ABOUT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL INCLUDE DROPPING CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT. WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THROUGH ABOUT 6Z
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM RESULTING IN A LONGER TIME FOR LOWER CIGS DOWNSTREAM TO REACH
THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO NOW REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 4 AND
7Z TONIGHT...SLOWLY DROPPING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES AND THE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.
EXPECT AIRFIELD MINIMUM CIGS /OR JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE/ TO
ARRIVE BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
IT IS ALSO AT THIS POINT THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY MAKE THE TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWEST
VISIBILITIES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING THIS CHANGEOVER PERIOD...BUT
COULD FLUCTUATE ANYWHERE BETWEEN MVFR AND AIRPORT MINIMUMS DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF THE BAND OF PRECIP PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY TOMORROW IN SOME LOCATIONS. SNOW
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AND TAPER OFF LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GENERALLY AFTER 18Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN A HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W AND A DEEP
TROF OVER THE E. THERE ARE 2 SHRTWVS OF INTEREST EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW...THE FIRST IS DIGGING SEWD INTO NW MN WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING
SEWD THRU NRN MANITOBA/FAR NW ONTARIO. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS 998MB LO
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA IS THE SFC REFLECTION OF THESE DISTURBANCES.
UPR MI IS UNDER THE SSW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND SLOWLY RETREATING
ARCTIC HI PRES NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THE PRES GRADIENT IS
MUCH TIGHTER OVER MN CLOSER TO THE LO...AND SOME LIGHT SN IS NOTED
ON THE SFC OBS/RADAR COMPOSITES MOVING THRU NRN MN. ALTHOUGH NEARBY
RAOBS SHOW SOME MID LVL MSTR WITH 00Z H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF ONLY
2C AND 4C AT YPL AND INL RESPECTIVELY...THE RAOBS ALSO INDICATE SOME
LLVL DRY AIR LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 00Z H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 26C AT MPX...22C AT GRB AND EVEN 13C AT INL/10C AT
YPL CLOSER TO THE SFC LO. SO THE OBSVD SN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
NOT THAT GREAT DESPITE SOME FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED ON
THE 290K SFC /ABOUT H7/.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2 SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE. SINCE THERE ARE 2
DISTURBANCES/SEPARATE AREAS OF DEEP LYR FORCING...THE INITIAL SHRTWV
IS TENDING TO TRACK FARTHER W DUE TO THE HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN AND
LARGER SCALE MSTR INFLOW WL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT SN
AMOUNTS TO BE SUB ADVY.
SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO NW MN IS PROGGED TO DIG SSEWD THIS MRNG...
WITH AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
290K SFC IMPACTING MAINLY JUST THE WRN CWA THIS MRNG. THE SECOND
SHRTWV WL REACH FAR NW LK SUP LATE THIS AFTN...WITH AREA OF
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC BUT WEAKER ISENTROPIC ASCENT INFLUENCING
MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVNG BEFORE FADING OVERNGT WITH APRCH OF
TRAILING SHRTWV RDG AXIS AND DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. WHILE THE
EXPECTED FORCING MAY JUSTIFY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS UNDER THE
BETTER FORCING...LIMITED MSTR INFLOW WL BE A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR.
IN FACT THE H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST UP TO 2 G/KG OVER THE W THIS
MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN IS FCST TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENT. SO
DESPITE A FAVORABLE DEPTH/LOCATION OF THE DGZ CENTERED ARND 10K
FT...EXPECT SN TOTALS NOT MORE THAN 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES...
HEAVIEST OVER THE W HALF BECAUSE THESE AREAS WL BE IMPACTED BY BOTH
SHRTWVS. SINCE SLOWLY BACKING LLVL FLOW WL ATTEMPT TO MAINTAIN FEED
OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR INTO THE E...FCST LOWER POPS/SN AMOUNTS IN THAT
AREA. IN FACT...THE FAR E MAY SEE LITTLE SN THRU TNGT. ONE CONCERN
FOR HEAVIER SN WL BE OVER THE SCENTRAL LATER THIS AFTN/EVNG DOWWIND
OF LK MI IN THE LLVL SLY FLOW AND WHEN DEEPER MSTR/FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH 2ND SHRTWV WL ARRIVE IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS /-
10 TO -12C/ SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT.
HOWEVER...FAIRLY SHARP DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH BACKING LLVL SE FLOW
TURNING TO THE SSW AT H85 AND MAINTAINING A FEED OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR
MAY OFFSET THIS POTENTIAL. BUT OPTED TO MAINTAIN SOME HIER
CATEGORICAL POPS/QPF CENTERED NEAR ESCANABA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL LK ENHANCEMENT.
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT
OVER THE E...CLOSER TO SLOWLY RETREATING HI PRES/CORE OF COLDER AIR
AND WHERE H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE NO HIER THAN -12 TO -13C.
LINGERING CLDS THRU TNGT WL GREATLY LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
COLDEST TEMPS AOB 10F WL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE E.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
WITH THE 500MB LOW AND THE AXIS OF THE 500MB TROUGH SHIFTED OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES TUESDAY...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE W HALF OF
THE NATION WILL BE ABLE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SFC...A RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY /EXTENDING FROM MN UP THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND/...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE A DRY PERIOD AT LEAST UNTIL MID DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING/STUCK BELOW THE 850-900MB
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TRICKY CLOUD COVER FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY IN A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. 850MB TEMPS ON S FLOW WILL RISE TO -1 TO
-4C THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE NW.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL EDGE E ACROSS IL AND IN THURSDAY
MORNING...AND OFF TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
SUPPRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-5IN OF SNOW WITH SLR VALUES AROUND 15:1. EXPECT
THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR SNOW TO BEGIN S CENTRAL. WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS QUICK WITH THE INVADING PRECIP AS THE 00Z NAM...BUT
A BLENDED SOLUTION SOUNDS REASONABLE. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 2-5IN CAN FALL IN A 12HR PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK
INTO THIS FOR POSSIBLE POSTING OF HEADLINES ON TUESDAY...AND
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN THE HWO.
N FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SFC TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
START OF OUR COOL DOWN...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8 TO -10C.
WHILE NOT QUITE OPTIMAL FOR LAKE EFFECT YET...SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE UPSLOPE N SNOWBELTS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/PENNSYLVANIA
FRIDAY EVENING.
DESPITE SFC-500MB RIDGING ON FRIDAY...A FEW LINGERING LES WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AS THE MOISTURE IS AGAIN TRAPPED BELOW 850MB.
BUT WILL THE MOISTURE LAYER IN THE DGZ /850MB TEMPS OF -15 TO
-17C/...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL PUSH IN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEARING FROM THE N PLAINS STATES.
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING
ISSUES ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 6HRS...WHICH IS PRETTY MINOR THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST...AND A BLENDED SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. 850MB
TEMPS OF -20 TO -30C WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
EXITS AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LOOK FOR FINE LES THAT WILL BE GOOD AT REDUCING VIS...ESPECIALLY IF
THE STRONGER NW WINDS OF THE 25/12Z ECMWF ARE CORRECT/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN SNOW MOVING
IN AT KIWD JUST AFT 12Z...AT KCMX LATE MON MORNING AND THEN AT KSAW
EARLY MON AFTERNOON. EXPECT IFR VSBYS TO AFFECT KIWD FROM MON MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR VBSYS WILL SPREAD INTO KCMX AND
KSAW LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING AS MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE
NW AND NCNTRL PORTION OF THE U.P. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VSBY IS
EXPECTED AT KIWD LATE MONDAY AS BEST MOISTURE DEPARTS AND SNOW TAPERS
OFF.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
EXPECT S WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HI PRES DEPARTING TO
THE E AND A LO PRES MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE LO
WEAKENS AND SLIDES TO THE S. THEN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20
KTS WILL PREVAIL THRU WED AS A HI PRES RIDGE AND RATHER SLACK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATES THE AREA. LOOK FOR STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
TO RETURN ON THU AS A LO PRES MOVES E THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF HI PRES BUILDING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA...TIGHTENING THE
PRES GRADIENT AGAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND
WAVES BUILT UP BY THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF
FREEZING SPRAY TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THE CLOSER APPROACH
OF THE HI ON FRI WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1141 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015
Precip over the CWA should be winding down over the next few hours
as upper level impulse works its way SE into the Ohio Valley.
Deformation zone that was so well defined this morning over IA and
n IL certainly falling apart as the afternoon progresses, and have
used a combination of regional radar and HRRR for PoP/weather
trends heading into the early evening. It would appear that the NW
edge of the precip (now all snow) will be near a KCOU-KILX line
by 00z, with the precip dropping southeast and exiting
SE sections of the CWA no later than 06z. Surface obs trends this
afternoon indicate that rain begins mixing with snow @ 36-37 and
is all snow at 34 or colder, and will use this for ptypes for the
rest of the afternoon and into the early evening. Given warm
ground and the light intensity of the precip once it goes to all
snow, accumulations should continue to be very minor.
Other question for tonight is how much clearing will occur as the
storm exits and a narrow ridge of high pressure works into the
region. Over the last few hours have seen a wedge of clearing
wrapping around the surface low from S WI into NE IA. Some of this
clearing may reach our area, but there is also a lot of additional
low cloud to our north that will advect our way as well, so for
now have only gone with partial clearing during the late evening
and overnight hours.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015
(Monday-Wednesday)
Overall, going forecast heading into midweek still looks pretty
good, so this package will include generally minor adjustments and
tweaks to these trends.
Fast moving shortwave in northwest flow will zip into the region on
Monday, with WAA in advance of this feature rapidly shutting down
the CAA occuring overnight in the wake of today`s clipper. 12z
synoptic runs are suggesting a fairly strong N-S warm front will be
located near or just west of STL by late Monday afternoon and have
attempted to reflect this in max temp forecast, allowing highs to
rebound into the middle 50s over mid MO while keeping highs in the
30s over our S IL counties. This temp trend also seems to be
supported by the model RH progs which suggest a fairly thick mid
deck sweeping from W to E across the area in the zone of WAA during
the day, with the most clouds over our eastern counties during the
afternoon. Some 12z guidance is even trying to kick out some
light QPF near and east of the Mississippi River in the zone of
strongest WAA. Have continued dry forecast for now, but will need
to keep an eye on this as there has been some very subtle suggestions
of this for several days.
The cold air advection behind Monday`s shortwave will try to dip
into the area Monday night, but with the longwave trof working into
the east coast during this time the main thrust of this cooler air
will be east of our area. Model consensus of thermal profiles over
the region support highs in the 40s over most of the CWA by Tuesday
as weak surface ridge drops into the Mississippi Valley.
Warmup still appears to be on schedule for Wednesday, and main
question is how much of the warming will be able to translate to the
surface. Forecast soundings are suggesting a large inversion, with
low level mixing up to 900-950mb. Surface/low level winds...while
strong...are going to primarily be southerly rather than the
southwest direction that normally gives us our biggest warmups.
Also some doubt to how much cloud cover there will be, as GFS
suggests some mid clouds working into the area during the afternoon
while NAM suggests lots of sunshine. Due to the above uncertainty
will keep highs about where they are now...ranging from the mid 40s
in our far eastern counties to near 60 in the far western tip of our
CWA.
(Thursday-Sunday)
Shortwave that works across the region Wednesday night and early
Thursday appears to be the first of several chunks of energy that
will be deepening long wave trof over the eastern U.S. heading into
the weekend, while cutoff low forms over the southwestern U.S.
Medium range solutions are in very broad agreement in developing
this split flow pattern, and in general this should mean temps
trending back towards more wintry levels after the mid-week warmup.
Will continue some slight chance PoPs on Wednesday night/Thursday
for eastern parts of the FA in advance of aforementioned shortwave,
with slight chance PoPs also continuing for parts of the FA on
Saturday and Saturday night as there is agreement in the medium
range models that WAA, a bit of shortwave energy, and a frontal
boundary will be passing through the area at that time.
Guidance is in reasonable agreement with their thermal profiles
through Saturday, but much like yesterday the operational ECMWF
continues to be deepest with the upper trof and much colder than the
GFS by the end of the period (it`s intesting to note that last
nights ECMWF-based MOS had over a 40 degree difference between the
warm and cold members for Sunday`s highs (58 vs 16). For now, will
lean towards MOS averages for temp trends on Sunday...which will be
in the 30s. This seems to be a reasonable compromise at this point,
with additional adjustments occurring as specific trends become less
muddled.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015
Lingering MVFR SC deck to persist across most of taf sites through
mid morning before scattering out. There is a hole in the mvfr
deck that has made its way into KUIN but should see that fill back
in by 08z Monday. Then next frontal boundary to move through and lower
cigs back down to mvfr for tafs along and east of Mississippi
river, while KCOU to remain vfr. As for winds, to persist from the
north, then back to the southwest to south ahead of next front.
Frontal boundary to move through KCOU by 22z Monday, KUIN by 23z
Monday and metro area by 01z Tuesday. It will be a dry frontal
passage with winds veering to the northwest.
Specifics for KSTL:
Lingering MVFR SC deck to persist across metro area through midday
before lifting and scattering out. Then next frontal boundary to
move through and lower cigs back down to mvfr by 01z Tuesday. As
for winds, to persist from the north, then back to the south ahead
of next front. Frontal passage will be a dry one with winds
veering to the northwest.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
357 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND MID WEEK PCPN
CHANCES WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS PRETTY CLOSE WITH THERMAL
PROFILES BUT DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL WITH MID WEEK CFP. MODELS
HAVE OVERDONE QPF ON NEARLY EVERY OF THE RECENT WAVES IN NW FLOW
SO FOR NOW WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH SNOW POTENTIAL.
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10K
FT SO PULLED POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE FA. EVEN THERE CANADIAN
RADARS NOT IMPRESSIVE SO BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE THERE THIS
MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH WESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING
WESTERN VALLEY. BY 18Z OR SO SOME BACK DOOR COLD ADVECTION TAKES
OVER. WESTWARD EXTENT OF LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO PLAY A PART ON HOW
MUCH WE CAN RECOVER WITH MINIMAL SNOW COVER. SW FA INTO SOUTHERN
VALLEY WILL HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOLAR SO HAVE WARMEST READINGS
THERE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL
AGAIN HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES SO STAYED CLOSE TO INHERITED
VALUES.
GOOD PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SO WILL
BE ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF FA UNTIL WEDNESDAY SO ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM N-S WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING
DIFFERENCES ON MAINLY POST FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL. BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS OF OVER FORECASTING PCPN WITH THESE WAVES WILL KEEP POPS ON
LOW END UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING STRAITS AND INTO AK BY DAY 5 THEN
WEAKENS. CROSS POLAR FLOW DEVELOPS THEREAFTER.
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES A FASTER SOLUTION AND A MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION BY 00Z MON. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. GFS KEEPS THE SAME CURRENT PATTERN WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATED MORE SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.
HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU AND ONE OR
TWO DEGREES FOR FRI. HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED THREE TO SIX DEGREES
ON SAT AND ONE TO THREE DEGREES ON SUN FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR CIGS HAVE BEEN WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC. THEY
HOLD EVERYONE IN MVFR CIGS ALL NIGHT. THAT IS NOT THE CASE. MOST
AREAS HAVE SEEN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES
IN. LEAVING SOME MID CLOUDS....EXCEPT FOR FAR NE FCST AREA.
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE CLEAR AREA IN SW MANITOBA MOVING INTO
NCNTRL ND AND THIS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS WELL. THUS KEPT MOST
SITES VFR OVERNIGHT OR BECOMING THAT WAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTY AT TIMES TO 20-25KTS. MONDAY IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOUDS WILL TREND. MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE LOW IN WEST CENTRAL
MANITOBA UP NORTH OF DAUPHIN AND I THINK RAP MODEL HAS GOOD IDEA
OF THAT MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY SO TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS SFC WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1245 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
WAA ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE REPLACED WITH WEAK CAA FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA. AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY BY 09Z. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS
GRADIENT FORCING INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISING IN THE 30S FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
UPPED SKY COVER A BIT WITH SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALOFT AND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE NORTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
ENDED THE POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR RUNS. LEFT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
BASED ON CANADIAN AND US RADARS AND LATEST HRRR MODEL WILL TRIM
POPS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS HRRR MODEL TAKES THE LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF
THE CWA. BOOSTED WINDS ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
JET MAX ALOFT MOVES THOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST WEST MONDAY...
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE MT/ND BORDER. THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...BUT
NOT ZERO. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE WINTRY MIX IMPACTS MENTION IN
THE HWO FOR THIS UPDATE.
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR
SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED.
DRY/WARM AIR IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION
MONDAY. SOME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF
BEING BROKEN...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FOLLOWING
TABLE IS A RUN DOWN OF THE FORECAST HIGHS AND ASSOCIATED RECORD
HIGHS FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LOCATION MON HI TEMP MON HI TEMP
FORECAST RECORD
DICKINSON 53 49 IN 1931
WILLISTON 47 47 IN 2006
BISMARCK 48 52 IN 1942
MINOT 44 58 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN 42 52 IN 1990
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CENTER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN AHEAD
OF A SURFACE LOW. THIS COMBINED WITH WEST...DOWNSLOPING WINDS...MINIMAL
OR NONEXISTENT SNOWPACK AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
THE 12 UTC ECMWF HAS 13-14 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 850MB WHILE THE GFS
AND NAM SHOW CLOSER TO 11-12. IF THESE TEMPERATURES CAN MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. IT ISN`T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW AREAS REACH 60.
LATER THIS WEEK WE WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
A TROUGH SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST
MODELS TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
THIS WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MAY NOT COOL DOWN AS MUCH AS INITIALLY THOUGHT EARLIER.
BUT...THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN. IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH SEVERAL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATER
THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK. A STEADY NORTHWEST WIND OF 15 TO NEAR 30 KTS FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1147 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
LAST PATCH OF FAST MOVING PRECIP MOVING INTO SE ND ATTM. PRODUCING
A FEW SPRINKLES AND FARGO CAME NR 05Z WITH A FEW FLAKES. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FCST AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY
DIFFICULT TO GET HANDLE ON HOW MUCH WAS REACHING THE GROUND...BUT
BASED ON OBS AND DBZ ON RADAR SOME PRETTY VICIOUS VIRGA WAS
OCCURRING TONIGHT. IF DRY LAYER NR 850 MB WASNT THERE A WHOLE
DIFFERENT STORY. LIGHT SNOW IN LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION CONTINUES
BUT CANADIAN RADAR AND OBS INDICATE MOST OF IT WILL EXIT EAST
LATER TONGHT AND SNOW AMOUNTS LESS. LOWERED TO UP TO 1 INCH
BAUDETTE AREA. TEMP SURGE IS ON AND EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE TO ABOVE
FREEZING OVER ERN ND AND THE RRV AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ALREADY
THAT WAY IN DVL BASIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT THEN TEMPS. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES.
FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS AND A SPEED MAX
WILL MOVE IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FA...WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...SOME FREEZING RAIN OR A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR THIS
AND MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED WEATHER STORY. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT...EVEN WITH TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR FREEZING LATE WITH INCREASING S/SW WINDS SHIFTING WEST LATE.
ON MONDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN NW MN DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND DRY DAY WITH W/NW WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
ON TUE...EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY WITH THE WARM WEATHER
CONTINUING. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 40 WEST INTO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE. IF THERE IS MORE INSOLATION THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED...TEMPS COULD BE EVEN WARMER.
ON WED...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHER
AREAS. WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THE WARM
ENVIRONMENT...BUT FOR NOW WON/T MENTION BUT MONITOR THREAT. IT
WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN AREAS.
FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL
START OUT WARM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW WED NIGHT BEHIND A COOL FRONT...THEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY NEXT
SAT...THAT COULD MEAN AN END TO THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR CIGS HAVE BEEN WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC. THEY
HOLD EVERYONE IN MVFR CIGS ALL NIGHT. THAT IS NOT THE CASE. MOST
AREAS HAVE SEEN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES
IN. LEAVING SOME MID CLOUDS....EXCEPT FOR FAR NE FCST AREA.
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE CLEAR AREA IN SW MANITOBA MOVING INTO
NCNTRL ND AND THIS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS WELL. THUS KEPT MOST
SITES VFR OVERNIGHT OR BECOMING THAT WAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTY AT TIMES TO 20-25KTS. MONDAY IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOUDS WILL TREND. MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE LOW IN WEST CENTRAL
MANITOBA UP NORTH OF DAUPHIN AND I THINK RAP MODEL HAS GOOD IDEA
OF THAT MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY SO TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS SFC WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1256 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL SWING THROUGH KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WEDNESDAY...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER FOR MID WEEK BEFORE
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RAIN/SNOW LINE CONTINUES TO MAKE IT WAY SLOWLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE 1304 1000-850MB THICKNESS FROM THE RAP IS
HANDLING THE CHANGEOVER NICELY. STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN
THE PCPN IN THE WHITEWATER VALLEY AND THE BACKEDGE OF APPROACHING
NE MERCER COUNTY. ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS IN THE PCPN FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. PRETTY MUCH KEPT THE SAME SNOW NUMBERS AND CHANGEOVER
TIMING. DID SPEED UP THE ENDING OF THE SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
COLDER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE N A LITTLE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.
KNOCKED A DEGREE OR SO OFF PREVIOUS LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BECAUSE OF THE AMPLIFICATION AND THEREFOR SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW...HAVE LINGERED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A LITTLE IN AREAS
S/E OF COLUMBUS WITH ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z AS WELL AS
ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNTIES. SHOULD REMAIN A RUSH HOUR IMPACT IN
ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS.
LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM IN MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA...THEN WEAK SFC RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE WEST IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. ONLY LOCATION TO
RECEIVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE IN THE FAR NW AS MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM ADVANCING WEAK S/WV FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO A WEAK
S/WV DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AS SUCH...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE MAY JUST GRAZE OUR FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO AFFECT THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER AND SHARPER WITH THE SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER.
HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE
BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MIXED PCPN
(-FZRA/-PL/-SN) EARLY ON BEFORE IT BECOMES RAIN/SNOW MIXED NORTH AND
RAIN SOUTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THIS IS FOUR DAYS OUT
AND IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE CHANGING THERMAL FIELDS EVEN IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE CONTINUED WITH RAIN/SNOW WORDING ATTM. PCPN SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.
LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH PUSHES AN ARCTIC FRONT
INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. WILL FORECAST
A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE PRESENT
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM THE WESTERN TAF SITES TO THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAYTIME MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY HOWEVER SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WITH THE SNOW WILL RANGE FROM IFR TO MVFR. WINDS
WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.
HAVE CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AT KCVG...KLUK...AND KDAY BY MID
DAY ON MONDAY. KILN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. KCMH AND KLCK ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ026-034-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ042>046-051>055-060>064-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ056-065-073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
328 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S UNDER NW WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TODAY...THE POTENT UPPER TROF THAT WILL SOON HELP CREATE THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BLIZZARD IS PUSHING TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND AWAY FROM THE MIDSOUTH. A QUICK MOVING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH
THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH THIS AFTERNOON TO
SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT OF THIS WIND SHIFT EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST
ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST... ALONG THE TN RIVER...WHERE LOWER 40S
IS ABOUT THE LIMIT...TEMPS WILL HIT 50 ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
ARKANSAS WHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL.
TONIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DROP INTO WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL SERVE TO SWITCH THE SURFACE WINDS BACK AROUND TO
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE GUSTY BY MORNING AND
WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL ONLY BE ABLE
TO DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE QUICK MOVING SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL LOW
CLOUDS TO MOVE BACK IN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TN RIVER. THE MAV AND
MET ARE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE HAD
TO CUT TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S NEAR PARIS...WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY TO
THE MID 50S ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THE MOISTURE STARVED FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD
UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING SITUATION SETS UP
WITH DEVELOPING WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER A COOL AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE.
MODELS TIMING AND CONSISTENCY ARE NOT GREAT AT THIS POINT. GFS IS
FASTER...ECMWF IS SLOWER. WILL COMPROMISE WITH LOW POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
MVFR WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE BACKSIDE OF
THE STRATUS DECK HAD PASSED THROUGH MCI AT 05Z. THE 02Z HRRR MODEL
SHOWED IFR CONTINUING OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL MO...WHILE BREAKING
UP MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHEAST AR BY DAYBREAK.
VFR AND RELAXING/BACKING WINDS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE ON MONDAY.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1139 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THIS EVENING TO FINE-TUNE POPS AND ALSO BETTER TIME THE
EXIT OF PRECIP TONIGHT. ELECTED TO ADD LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE CLOSER TO THE VORT MAX ROTATING SOUTHEAST. A
BAND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR REMNANT SHOWERS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE (VERY) COLD POCKET NEAR 500 MB. THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD WITH A WARM-UP SCHEDULED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
TVT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
AFTERNOON PLACE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF
2 PM CST...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND/AFTER 06Z...AND HAVE
LEFT THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT/S FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END
FOR NOW.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
MVFR WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE BACKSIDE OF
THE STRATUS DECK HAD PASSED THROUGH MCI AT 05Z. THE 02Z HRRR MODEL
SHOWED IFR CONTINUING OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL MO...WHILE BREAKING
UP MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHEAST AR BY DAYBREAK.
VFR AND RELAXING/BACKING WINDS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE ON MONDAY.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1126 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS THE NAM12 AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW 40-45
KNOTS AT 925 MB. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND TODAY/S COLD FRONT WILL HELP DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE
AREA...ALLOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.
HUFFMAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS SOME NICE CIRRUS STREAMING OVER SE TX THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NW AND REALLY THATS ABOUT IT. GIVEN NW WINDS...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 70 AS COLD ADVECTION LAGS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S FOR MON MORNING. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT A NICE WARM UP WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MISS/TN RIVER VALLEYS ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BOMB OUT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS LATE MON THROUGH WED. HOW DOES THIS IMPACT HOUSTON?
LETS JUST SAY YOU SHOULD NOT EXPECT TO FLY EAST ANY TIME SOON
ESPECIALLY JFK/LGA/BOS. WHILE THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY DELAYS AT
IAH/HOU THERE MAY BE SOME TRICKLE DOWN TRAVEL IMPACTS.
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND NW
FLOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2 THIRDS OF THE U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER S
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SEEMS TO BE A FAVORED REGION
FOR CUT OFF LOWS THIS YEAR. THE PATTERN LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
RECENT RAIN EVENT AND THEN RUN OF GOOD WEATHER AFTER THAT. GRANTED
IT IS NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-50 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES STARTING SAT INTO SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA THUR INTO FRI SO THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER SET UP FOR GOOD COLD
RAIN. THE HARDEST PART WILL BE TIMING ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
THAT PUSH THROUGH IN THE MAIN JET FLOW. GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THAT REGARD. GFS IS WET AT FIRST BUT REALLY HANGS
THE CUTT OFF OUT OVER THE BAJA. ECMWF IS DRIER AT FIRST...HAS ONE
CLUSTER OF RAIN NEXT SUN AND THEN FINALLY EJECTS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER GOOD SOAKER IN THE 8-10DAY RANGE. WITH
THAT IN MIND...STANDARD DISCLAIMER APPLIES...DETAILS OF THE 8-10
DAY FORECAST WILL CHANGE QUITE A BIT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. STILL
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
39
MARINE...
W/SWLY WINDS JUST A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY RELAX A BIT THIS EVE AS THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVES IN
FROM THE N/NW. NO REAL CHANGE FROM CURRENT FCST OF SCEC CONDITIONS
TONIGHT/EARLY MON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION BE-
HIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO DECREASE WINDS/SEAS BY MON AFTN/EVE IF
ALL GOES WELL. THE GENERALLY LIGHT WLY FLOW MON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS FOR TUES/WEDS. THE NEXT FRONT ON TAP
FOR LATE THURS. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 42 66 48 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 43 65 47 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 47 60 51 66 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOME OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COUNTIES ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SEEING A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE SNOW ENDS...WHILE IN
TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A LITTLE MORE SNOW
TO FALL THAN WHATS EVEN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THATS BECAUSE THE
RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW 7 C/KM LAPSE RATES MARCHING THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ADD SOME CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AT BOULDER ALSO
SHOWS THIS CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...EVEN INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND
INTO THE LSE AREA...RIGHT AT MORNING COMMUTE TIME.
ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
ALONE...THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
MAKE FOR A MESS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE LEFT UNTREATED.
ADDITIONALLY...HAVING THIS PRECIPITATION COME THROUGH AT MORNING
COMMUTE TIME IS ALSO A PROBLEM. THESE ARE THE MAIN REASONS WHY THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
FOLLOWING THE SITUATION CLOSELY FOR MONDAY AS A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS BETWEEN THE 25.15Z SREF...25.18Z
NAM/GFS AND 25.21Z RAP FOR SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GOOD DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IN THE MORNING
WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH AS WELL AS HAVING THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET SITUATED OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY...THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL LIFT. THE CONCERN
BECOMES WHEN THE SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION LEAVE THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING...CAUSING MID-LEVEL DRYING AND THUS LOSS OF ICE IN
THE CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...WE STILL HAVE THAT WARM FRONT COMING INTO
THE REGION FROM NEAR I-35 TO PROVIDE THAT LOW LEVEL LIFT. THUS IT
APPEARS LIKELY WE SHOULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BY MID-LATE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER COUNTIES.
ONE BENEFIT IS THAT SNOW IS STARTING OUT FIRST...WHICH SHOULD
MINIMIZE THE IMPACT OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE ON TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...IF ROADS DO NOT GET TREATED...THEY COULD EASILY BE
SLIPPERY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE COULD BE ISSUES WITH THE SNOW COMING IN AT
COMMUTE TIME. SO BOTH SOME PROS AND CONS FOR A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT FARTHER
EAST THAN A ROCHESTER TO OELWEIN LINE...KEEPING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER COUNTIES AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD BE COLDER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL
LIFT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS PLENTY TO
KEEP SOME DRIZZLE GOING...WHICH COULD THEN FREEZE IF OUR
TEMPERATURES STAY COLD. ON THE OTHER HAND...DAYLIGHT THROUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY HEAT UP ROADS ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
CHALLENGES CONCERN PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS/TYPE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CANADIAN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 25.12Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT...BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON AMOUNTS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WILL USE A BLENDED
SOLUTION OF THE 25.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.
THIS EVENING WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN AN 850 HPA
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA/EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES ACROSS MN AND
INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. MODEST MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH
AND SATURATED TO AROUND 500 HPA FOR ALL SNOW. HOWEVER...AS DAY
PROGRESSES...ICE LOSS OCCURS AS 700 TO 500 HPA LAYER DRYS OUT.
WITH SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
EAU CLAIRE TO BLACK RIVER FALLS TO PLATTEVILLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES.
FARTHER WEST TO THE MS RIVER...A QUICKER CHANGE OVER TO DRIZZLE
WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE HALF INCH TO AN INCH
RANGE. SNOW WEST OF THE RIVER WILL BE A TRACE TO HALF INCH.
A THIN GLAZE OF ICE FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT
BECAUSE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SHARP CUT-OFF BETWEEN THE STRONGEST
FORCING/BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION AND WHEN ICE LOSS OCCURS...
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOIST AN ADVISORY.
IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE A POSSIBILITY AND CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IF
ICE ACCUMULATION DOES HAPPEN...IT SHOULD QUICKLY MELT AS
TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR
EAST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BY LATE TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND POTENTIALLY QUITE WARM AS LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND KEEPS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY FROM
+2 TO +5 C. CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE...BUT LOWER
40S A REAL POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO
SOUTHWEST WI. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE WRAPS-UP ACROSS WI.
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS
ALLOWING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE STRONGEST OF THESE IMPACTS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WILL DROP SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S ON THURSDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
MVFR STRATUS REMAINS OVER RST AND WAS EXPANDING QUICKLY TOWARDS
LSE LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP. LSE
SHOULD GO MVFR BY 07Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW
INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND 11Z...ALONG WITH A DROP OF VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS TO IFR. RST COULD EVEN GO LIFR IN CEILINGS. TOWARDS
13Z AT RST AND 16Z AT LSE...THE ICE IN THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOST...CAUSING THE SNOW TO CHANGE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SWITCHING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL HELP TO IMPROVE VISIBILITY
TO MVFR. HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO CEILING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY NOON AT RST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
IN...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LSE IS
TRICKY WIND WISE WITH BOTH FRONTS FORECAST TO LAY UP RIGHT NEAR
THE TAF SITE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...BOTH
SITES EXPECTED TO SEE CEILINGS INCREASE TO MVFR LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING AS MIXING INCREASES.
LOOKING AT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH...WHILE A
LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT LSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017-
029-032>034-041-042-053.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ079-
088-096.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
549 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...
315 AM CST
THROUGH TONIGHT...
AN IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING AS ROARING SUBTROPICAL
JET ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS DEEPENING A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM THAT WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO CARVE OUT THE DEVELOPING TROUGH
IS DIVING SOUTHWARD OVER OUR REGION TODAY. ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF
THIS...FROM MANITOBA TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AN ELONGATED AREA OF
VORTICITY GENERATION WILL SUPPORT FORCING FOR ASCENT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH THE MOST FOCUSED ZONE BEING A BETTER DEFINED WAVE
SEEN OVER CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RUN-TO-RUN TREND ON THE
RAP MODEL EARLY THIS MORNING IS FURTHER
WEST/SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND FAVORING
NORTH CENTRAL IL TO GET IN A PERIOD OF SNOW BEGINNING LATER THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL EXPANSION EAST. WHILE MOST OF THE
SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE
850-700MB CONVERGENCE AND A F-GEN INDUCED CIRCULATION MAY ALLOW
FOR SPOTTY BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW...WHICH HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE TRIES TO INDICATE TOO. WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND WPC
COLLABORATION...HAVE AROUND AN INCH FORECAST IN THE ROCKFORD
AREA...WITH AROUND A HALF INCH FURTHER EAST OF THERE. SOUTHWARD IN
THE FORECAST AREA THE DRY AIR SEEMS MORE PRONOUNCED...SO MAY END
UP JUST BEING FLURRIES AT TIMES.
THE FORCING ALOFT WEAKENS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO BECOME MORE PATCHY IN COVERAGE. THE MOISTURE
IN THE ICE LAYER GRADUALLY DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH STILL SOME LIGHT ADIABATIC ASCENT IN THE LOWEST
COUPLE THOUSAND FEET. IF THAT LOWEST LAYER IS SATURATED OR ABLE TO
THERE COULD BE A FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERN...SO MAINTAIN THE GOING
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...DID BUMP DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES AS CLEARING
LAST NIGHT ALLOWED PLACES TO DROP QUICKLY AND NOW THE CLOUD CANOPY
WILL HINDER THEM FROM WARMING MUCH. FORECAST HIGHS ARE MAINLY IN THE
MID 20S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. WHILE THAT DOES NOT MAKE
HEADLINES IN JANUARY...IF THE FORECAST PANS OUT THIS WOULD BE THE
FIRST DAY WITH HIGHS BELOW 30 SINCE JANUARY 14TH.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
315 AM CST
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BEFORE RETURN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHALLENGE OF CLOUD COVER
PRESENTS ITSELF AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WHILE HAVE SLOWED THE
CLEARING TREND TUESDAY MORNING...STILL THINK THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN AREAWIDE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY IS
FORECAST TO BRING 925MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 0C WHICH USING
CLIMATOLOGY WITH LIMITED SNOW COVER SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MID
TO UPPER 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA
OR CHICAGO METRO.
THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST BY THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AND GET CAUGHT
UP IN THE WESTERLIES BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. WITH THE MASSIVE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHEAST LIKELY TO SLOW
THINGS A BIT...CONTINUE TO LEAN WITH THE SLOWER EC AND GEM MODELS
WHICH WOULD FAVOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES MORE SO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...AROUND 12H SLOWER THAN THE GFS. FORECAST VERTICAL
PROFILES ON BOTH MODELS WOULD SUPPORT MORE OF RAIN AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT THE
VERY LEAST HOLD STEADY IF NOT MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY
TO 35 TO 38 DEGREES GIVEN EC AND GEM SOLUTIONS. ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM IT WOULD SEEM THERE WOULD BE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SNOW
CHANCES. OBVIOUSLY A FEW DAYS OUT AND A CUTOFF LOW INVOLVED...A
LOT COULD CHANGE WITH SPECIFICS...BUT RIGHT NOW THIS IS NOT
LOOKING LIKE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT.
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE WHILE ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST US. THE 00Z EC HAS
FORECAST A STRONG SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO WIN OUT ABOUT A
WEEK FROM NOW AND DRAG DOWN -15C TO -20C 850MB TEMPERATURES.
SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE FIRST DAYS OF FEBRUARY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AROUND MID-DAY. MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
* IFR CIGS AND MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH LINGERING FLURRIES.
* LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TODAY AND SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING. GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT
EAST-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY
APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LOWER
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS
BY/AROUND MID-DAY. A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY EVENING THOUGH WILL LINGER IN LIGHTER
FASHION AND MAY MIX OR CHANGE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE BEFORE
ENDING. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW FILLS TO
JUST A TROUGH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM PERHAPS AN
INCH AROUND RFD...TO LESS THAN AN INCH FARTHER EAST ACROSS CHI
METRO TERMINALS.
WINDS CURRENTLY LIGHT/VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PASSES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTH
DURING THE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY EVENING. SPEEDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS...THOUGH IF APPROACHING LOW IS SLOWER TO WEAKEN
THAN EXPECTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TO TURN LIGHT NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TIMING/INTENSITY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.
* MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN VIS/CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW AT
NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. MVFR LIKELY/IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW/MVFR CIGS.
SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
143 AM CST
ONLY MARINE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS NEAR 30 KT ARE ALSO LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDING SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LAKE. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO PASS QUICKLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON IN WHAT REMAINS A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG MOVING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO ILLINOIS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE FILLING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 20
KTS ON THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING AND BACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES AND WEAKENS.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES BY
TUESDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER MORE DEVELOPED LOW WILL FORM ACROSS THE LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN WINDS INITIALLY BECOMING SOUTH
AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
BACKING TO THE NORTH EARLY THURSDAY AND GUSTING NEAR 30 KT AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS...AS SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MID-MORNING TODAY...AS WAVES
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FROM YESTERDAY/LAST EVENINGS STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
507 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
Latest surface analysis indicating weak high pressure centered from
central lower Michigan southwest through northeast Missouri. Our
next weather system was already producing some light snow across
parts of central Minnesota...which was tracking southeast early this
morning. The main short term forecast concern will be with this weak
upper level system that will track across our area today and the
precip chances with it.
Models have trended a bit further south and west with the upper wave
along with the fairly compact area of lift associated with it.
Forcing in the 700-500 mb layer compact but short lived with this
system and based on the latest HRRR and RAP solutions, it appears
the threat (20-30 POPs) for light snow will track southeast into our
area later this morning and then shift into east central Illinois by
this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings have all trended a
bit deeper with the moisture with this system and cold enough to
support light snow except over far southwest Illinois where there
may be a mix of rain and snow for a few hours as surface temps rise
into the middle 30s.
Despite the decent low to mid level forcing with this wave, QPF
amounts will be light with any snow accumulations of less than an
inch. As the better forcing shifts off to our east, we start to lose
the ice crystals in the upper levels of the clouds that would support
mainly light snow. Nam time-height cross sections showing some very
weak lift tracking thru the area late this afternoon in the 925-850
mb layer so not the greatest setup for freezing drizzle but will
need to be watched later this afternoon and evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
Elongated short wave will gradually shift east of IL by dawn Tue
with light snow chances shifting east of IL into Indiana. Low clouds
will be slow to clear from the west Tue with mostly cloudy skies
generally prevailing with IL river valley having better chance of
becoming partly sunny during Tue afternoon. Seasonable highs in the
mid to upper 30s Tue with north winds 8-15 mph. Low clouds to
continue to decrease Tue night as weak surface high pressure ridge
sets up over IL by Tue evening. Lows Tue night in the low to mid
20s.
Upper level ridging into IL Wed will give partly to mostly sunny
skies, while 1005 mb surface low pressure moving east into the
central plains Wed to give breezy sse winds of milder air into the
region with highs in the 40s Wed (ranging from lower 40s ne counties
to near 50F from Jacksonville sw. Low pressure to move east across
central IL during Wed night and bring a chance of light rain with
lows staying above freezing in the mid to upper 30s. Light rain
chances to diminish from west to east during Thu and could see light
snow chances too over northern counties before ending as cooler air
arrives on back side of low pressure moving into the southern Great
Lakes region. Highs Thu range from upper 30s to near 40F IL river
valley to upper 40s in southeast IL.
Dry conditions and cooler temps return to central/se IL from Thu
night thru Fri night as high pressure settles into the ohio river
valley by Friday evening. Highs Fri back to seasonable levels for
late Jan in the mid to upper 30s. Continued slight chances of light
snow Sat and Sat night as cold front moves through. A cutoff upper
level low in the sw states late this week will move east and keeps
brunt of its qpf south of central IL, though some models have us on
northern edge of ligher qpf this weekend. Also have a northern
stream clipper system moving through the Great Lakes Sat and Sat
night that drives a cold front through IL. May need to increase
chances of light snow this weekend, though timing issues and also
question if any phasing can take place bettern stronger southern
stream system and weakern northern stream short wave. Also southern
areas could see a mix of precipitation on Sat before colder air
arrives Sat night. MEX/GFS appears too warm with temps behind cold
front Sun/Mon and oddly doesn`t cool it off much from Sat. ECWMF/ECE
model cools off much more Sun/Mon. Did not go as cold as this model,
but have temps dropping from highs in upper 30s/near 40F Sat to
upper 20s/lower 30s Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
Next weather system quickly tracking southeast out of Minnesota
this morning and will begin to affect our area after 15z this
morning with lower cigs and a period of -SN that may restrict
vsbys for a brief time as well. After that, forecast soundings
indicate as the system that brings the scattered light snow
to the area today moves away, we will lose the ice crystals
needed to support light snow with the threat for some freezing
drizzle late this afternoon and especially this evening. Not
very confident on the freezing drizzle at this point so will
not include in the 12z forecast but something to watch for
in later forecasts.
MVFR cigs still linger at DEC and CMI but based on latest
satellite data, they were very close to the backedge of the clouds
and will probably scatter the lower cigs out with VFR cigs
thereafter until early afternoon when all areas will see cigs
lower to MVFR with local IFR cigs in the areas of light snow. For
now, will include a tempo group for light snow only at PIA and BMI
this afternoon with VCSH for the remainder of the TAF sites. Look
for MVFR and occasional IFR cigs to prevail into the evening
hours.
Surface winds will be out of the south at around 10 kts today
with a wind shift into the northwest later this evening with
speeds tonight at 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
600 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
...UPDATED DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
INTRODUCED PATCHY FZDZ/FLURRIES BETWEEN HIGHWAY 20 TO HIGHWAY 34
AND GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 169 THROUGH 14Z WITH THE WEAK BAND
OF PRECIP QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH THAT IS JUST MOVING INTO THE FORT
DODGE AREA AS OF 6 AM. ALGONA AND FOREST CITY REPORTING UP...ONLY
CONFIRMING PRECIP IS FINALLY ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE. SHOULD BE
VERY SHORT-LIVED AND LOOKS TO EXIT THE DSM METRO BY 730-8AM.
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FZDZ
TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE FROM 10Z TO 14Z WITH SOME
LINGERING POPS THROUGH 15Z NEAR THE ALO AREA. LEANED TOWARD A
BLEND OF THE NAM12/RAP FOR POPS TODAY AND TOWARDS THE WARMER
RAP/ECMWF FOR TEMPS.
THE RAP AND NAM MCW/FOD SOUNDINGS HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING
COMPLETELY SATURATED AS THEY DEPICT A DEEP DRY LAYER BETWEEN 850-
650MB. CERTAINLY SATURATED BELOW 850MB AND ABOVE 650MB...SO SEEDER
FEEDER POTENTIAL EXISTS BUT FORCING WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
VERY WEAK AND ANY SNOW WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT THROUGH
THIS DRY LAYER. IT MAY SNOW FOR A SHORT STINT BY AROUND 12Z-13Z
ONCE THE COLUMN COMPLETELY SATURATES NEAR MCW/ALO AREA BUT THE
RAP KEEPS THE DRY LAYER THROUGH THE ENTIRE MORNING. AS A
RESULT...WITH THE LACK OF ANY ICE INTRODUCTION...HAVE MENTION OF
FZDZ THIS MORNING. ONLY A MINOR TRAVEL CONCERN WITH THE FZDZ AS
EXPECTING WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ADVECT IN AND WITH THE VERY
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND
SPORADIC AT BEST. PLUS...MUCH OF THE PRECIP RETURNS ON RADAR IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND WITH ONLY A COUPLE
SPOTS REPORTING -SN ATTM.
WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE RAP/ECMWF FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY. THE NAM/GFS/SREF SEEMED TOO COLD FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GOOD MIXING AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD PUT TEMPS BACK IN THE
50S FOR THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
MAIN THEMES FOR THE WEEK CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SLIDING NEARLY DUE SOUTH TOWARD US WILL
BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE H500/H700 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. ALMOST IMMEDIATELY ANOTHER LEE SIDE TROUGH/BOUNDARY
WILL FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ENHANCE SOME CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO
FAR WITH RATHER MILD READINGS FOR JANUARY IN THE 20S NORTHEAST TO
30S SOUTH. BY TOMORROW...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LITTLE MIXING WITH ANY WARMING SOLELY DUE TO
INSOLATION. THUS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY
WITH A SUN CLOUD MIX. PATTERN FOR US REMAINS RATHER BENIGN FOR A
FEW MORE DAYS...COMPARED TO EAST COAST...AND WE SHOULD BEGIN A
NICE WARMING TREND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z WED BOTH GFS/00Z EURO INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL STREAM ACROSS MOST OF IOWA. A SFC WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL IOWA KEEPING THE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR THROUGH THE NOON HOUR. EURO H850 TEMPS WARM CONSIDERABLY TO
+10C TO +12C WITH GFS +6C TO +8C THROUGH 18Z WITH SOME COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR BOTH MODELS AS CLOUDS THICKEN. SIMILAR TO JAN
16TH...AM EXPECTING STRONG WARMING TO OUR SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
GENERALLY NOT BE MODIFIED MUCH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO OUR
AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LAG WARMTH POTENTIAL AS WITH PREVIOUS
SIMILAR EVENT. SUNDAY HIGHS TO OUR SOUTHWEST WERE ALREADY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH 4C TO 6C H850 TEMPS. HAVE RAISED TMAX FOR
WED TO LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST FOR NOW AND THIS MAY
BE TOO COOL. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW WED NIGHT ONE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST BY MORNING WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DRIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER THE EAST DURING THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN EURO H850 WINDS
QUITE STRONG WITH 45 TO NEAR 50 KTS EARLY IN THE DAY REMAINING
NEAR 45KTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LIKELY THAT SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL BE NEAR 2O TO 25 MPH WITH GUST POTENTIAL ABOVE 40 KTS.
DESPITE THE EURO SHOWING A STRONGER SOLN THAN THE 00Z GFS...GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEARLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY AND MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SOLNS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL PACKAGES. BREEZY DAY
NONE THE LESS. MORE WAVE ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEAST FROM THE POLAR
ANCHOR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY AND LATE SUNDAY. THERE
IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE H500
VORTEX AS IT DEEPENS AND EXPANDS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE 00Z EURO DROPS ONE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH A SECOND FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL H500 WAVE BY 12Z SUNDAY.
PROGGED H850 TEMPS PLUMMET TO -20C TO -26C MONDAY. NEITHER THE GEM
NOR THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS SUPPORT THE SAME COLD SOLUTION OF THE
EURO FOR NOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OF THE MEX GUIDANCE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT THE GEM DEVELOPS A DECENT STORM PASSING JUST
TO OUR EAST WHILE THE EURO SHEARS THE SYSTEM EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. WILL NEED TO EVALUATE OVER THE COMING DAYS AND
TAKE A MORE MODEST APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES FOR NOW AS PAST TWO
NIGHTS THERE HAS BEEN NO CONSISTENCY OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. BETTER CLARITY IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
&&
.AVIATION...26/12Z
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
IFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY DEPART AT MCW THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR CIGS
LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. DSM/FOD/OTM LIKELY
TO SEE A BREAK IN THE MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES BACK IN WITH THE CAA TONIGHT AND HAVE MENTION OF
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
UPDATE...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
648 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THE MORNING AS CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRICKY OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT FROM NW TO SE THIS
MORNING. FRESHENED UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS THIS MORNING
INCLUDING A QUICK UPDATE OF WX GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW TRANSITION THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER PART. THE RUB HERE
IS THAT THE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN TAKING HITS LATELY WITH THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A ONCE DISCARDED SOLUTION...MAINLY SEEN EARLIER IN
THE GFS...HAS RETURNED WITH SOME LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF.
EARLY ON...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A FAST FLOW OF ENERGY ROILS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PATH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
VORT STREAM IS SHUNTED EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS
FROM A WEAKENING SOUTHERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THEN OVER THE LOWER OHIO BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A
DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDE EAST.
THIS FEATURE RAMPS UP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS
TROUGH CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT FLOW TO
FOLLOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NATION A LARGE
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS NOW DEPICTED...PARTICULARLY BY
THE LATEST ECMWF...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FLOW RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS NOW SHOW SOME
CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS
OUT. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A
MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...A BLEND
OF THE MODELS WAS PREFERRED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY CONCERNS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE
STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF
SLIDING NORTHEAST WHILE SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
BUT THAT WILL SURELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.
THE CR GRID LOAD MADE FOR AN OKAY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GRIDS WITH CHANGES MADE PRIMARILY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
MOST SITES HAVE COME DOWN THIS MORNING TO IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW SITES ARE SEEING LOWER VIS DUE TO FOG AND/OR SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THOSE SITES. COLDER AIR IS SLOWING MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND WILL TRANSITION RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE A FEW SITES ARE SEEING GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS AS WINDS BEGIN SWITCHING WEST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO FILTER INTO EASTERN KY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
633 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER PART. THE RUB HERE
IS THAT THE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN TAKING HITS LATELY WITH THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A ONCE DISCARDED SOLUTION...MAINLY SEEN EARLIER IN
THE GFS...HAS RETURNED WITH SOME LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF.
EARLY ON...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A FAST FLOW OF ENERGY ROILS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PATH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
VORT STREAM IS SHUNTED EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS
FROM A WEAKENING SOUTHERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THEN OVER THE LOWER OHIO BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A
DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDE EAST.
THIS FEATURE RAMPS UP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS
TROUGH CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT FLOW TO
FOLLOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NATION A LARGE
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS NOW DEPICTED...PARTICULARLY BY
THE LATEST ECMWF...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FLOW RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS NOW SHOW SOME
CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS
OUT. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A
MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...A BLEND
OF THE MODELS WAS PREFERRED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY CONCERNS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE
STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF
SLIDING NORTHEAST WHILE SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
BUT THAT WILL SURELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.
THE CR GRID LOAD MADE FOR AN OKAY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GRIDS WITH CHANGES MADE PRIMARILY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
MOST SITES HAVE COME DOWN THIS MORNING TO IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW SITES ARE SEEING LOWER VIS DUE TO FOG AND/OR SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THOSE SITES. COLDER AIR IS SLOWING MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND WILL TRANSITION RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE A FEW SITES ARE SEEING GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS AS WINDS BEGIN SWITCHING WEST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO FILTER INTO EASTERN KY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
637 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN A HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W AND A DEEP
TROF OVER THE E. THERE ARE 2 SHRTWVS OF INTEREST EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW...THE FIRST IS DIGGING SEWD INTO NW MN WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING
SEWD THRU NRN MANITOBA/FAR NW ONTARIO. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS 998MB LO
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA IS THE SFC REFLECTION OF THESE DISTURBANCES.
UPR MI IS UNDER THE SSW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND SLOWLY RETREATING
ARCTIC HI PRES NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THE PRES GRADIENT IS
MUCH TIGHTER OVER MN CLOSER TO THE LO...AND SOME LIGHT SN IS NOTED
ON THE SFC OBS/RADAR COMPOSITES MOVING THRU NRN MN. ALTHOUGH NEARBY
RAOBS SHOW SOME MID LVL MSTR WITH 00Z H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF ONLY
2C AND 4C AT YPL AND INL RESPECTIVELY...THE RAOBS ALSO INDICATE SOME
LLVL DRY AIR LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 00Z H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 26C AT MPX...22C AT GRB AND EVEN 13C AT INL/10C AT
YPL CLOSER TO THE SFC LO. SO THE OBSVD SN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
NOT THAT GREAT DESPITE SOME FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED ON
THE 290K SFC /ABOUT H7/.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2 SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE. SINCE THERE ARE 2
DISTURBANCES/SEPARATE AREAS OF DEEP LYR FORCING...THE INITIAL SHRTWV
IS TENDING TO TRACK FARTHER W DUE TO THE HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN AND
LARGER SCALE MSTR INFLOW WL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT SN
AMOUNTS TO BE SUB ADVY.
SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO NW MN IS PROGGED TO DIG SSEWD THIS MRNG...
WITH AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
290K SFC IMPACTING MAINLY JUST THE WRN CWA THIS MRNG. THE SECOND
SHRTWV WL REACH FAR NW LK SUP LATE THIS AFTN...WITH AREA OF
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC BUT WEAKER ISENTROPIC ASCENT INFLUENCING
MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVNG BEFORE FADING OVERNGT WITH APRCH OF
TRAILING SHRTWV RDG AXIS AND DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. WHILE THE
EXPECTED FORCING MAY JUSTIFY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS UNDER THE
BETTER FORCING...LIMITED MSTR INFLOW WL BE A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR.
IN FACT THE H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST UP TO 2 G/KG OVER THE W THIS
MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN IS FCST TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENT. SO
DESPITE A FAVORABLE DEPTH/LOCATION OF THE DGZ CENTERED ARND 10K
FT...EXPECT SN TOTALS NOT MORE THAN 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES...
HEAVIEST OVER THE W HALF BECAUSE THESE AREAS WL BE IMPACTED BY BOTH
SHRTWVS. SINCE SLOWLY BACKING LLVL FLOW WL ATTEMPT TO MAINTAIN FEED
OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR INTO THE E...FCST LOWER POPS/SN AMOUNTS IN THAT
AREA. IN FACT...THE FAR E MAY SEE LITTLE SN THRU TNGT. ONE CONCERN
FOR HEAVIER SN WL BE OVER THE SCENTRAL LATER THIS AFTN/EVNG DOWWIND
OF LK MI IN THE LLVL SLY FLOW AND WHEN DEEPER MSTR/FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH 2ND SHRTWV WL ARRIVE IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS /-
10 TO -12C/ SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT.
HOWEVER...FAIRLY SHARP DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH BACKING LLVL SE FLOW
TURNING TO THE SSW AT H85 AND MAINTAINING A FEED OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR
MAY OFFSET THIS POTENTIAL. BUT OPTED TO MAINTAIN SOME HIER
CATEGORICAL POPS/QPF CENTERED NEAR ESCANABA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL LK ENHANCEMENT.
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT
OVER THE E...CLOSER TO SLOWLY RETREATING HI PRES/CORE OF COLDER AIR
AND WHERE H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE NO HIER THAN -12 TO -13C.
LINGERING CLDS THRU TNGT WL GREATLY LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
COLDEST TEMPS AOB 10F WL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE E.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
WITH THE 500MB LOW AND THE AXIS OF THE 500MB TROUGH SHIFTED OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES TUESDAY...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE W HALF OF
THE NATION WILL BE ABLE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SFC...A RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY /EXTENDING FROM MN UP THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND/...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE A DRY PERIOD AT LEAST UNTIL MID DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING/STUCK BELOW THE 850-900MB
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TRICKY CLOUD COVER FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY IN A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. 850MB TEMPS ON S FLOW WILL RISE TO -1 TO
-4C THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE NW.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL EDGE E ACROSS IL AND IN THURSDAY
MORNING...AND OFF TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
SUPPRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-5IN OF SNOW WITH SLR VALUES AROUND 15:1. EXPECT
THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR SNOW TO BEGIN S CENTRAL. WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS QUICK WITH THE INVADING PRECIP AS THE 00Z NAM...BUT
A BLENDED SOLUTION SOUNDS REASONABLE. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 2-5IN CAN FALL IN A 12HR PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK
INTO THIS FOR POSSIBLE POSTING OF HEADLINES ON TUESDAY...AND
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN THE HWO.
N FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SFC TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
START OF OUR COOL DOWN...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8 TO -10C.
WHILE NOT QUITE OPTIMAL FOR LAKE EFFECT YET...SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE UPSLOPE N SNOWBELTS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/PENNSYLVANIA
FRIDAY EVENING.
DESPITE SFC-500MB RIDGING ON FRIDAY...A FEW LINGERING LES WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AS THE MOISTURE IS AGAIN TRAPPED BELOW 850MB.
BUT WILL THE MOISTURE LAYER IN THE DGZ /850MB TEMPS OF -15 TO
-17C/...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL PUSH IN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEARING FROM THE N PLAINS STATES.
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING
ISSUES ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 6HRS...WHICH IS PRETTY MINOR THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST...AND A BLENDED SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. 850MB
TEMPS OF -20 TO -30C WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
EXITS AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LOOK FOR FINE LES THAT WILL BE GOOD AT REDUCING VIS...ESPECIALLY IF
THE STRONGER NW WINDS OF THE 25/12Z ECMWF ARE CORRECT/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
SOME -SN ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LO MOVING FM NRN MN SSE INTO
WI TNGT WL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. STEADIER SN WL
FALL AT IWD THIS MRNG...REDUCING VSBY INTO THE IFR RANGE UNTIL THE
SN SHIFTS AWAY THIS AFTN AND CONDITIONS REBOUND TO MVFR. AS THE AREA
OF SN DRIFTS ONLY SLOWLY TO THE E INTO FAIRLY DRY LLVL AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING HI PRES IN SE CANADA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT CMX AND SAW TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND THEN IFR BY
LATE THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH THE STEADIER SN WL EXIT THE AREA
TNGT...LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL RESULT IN LO END MVFR/HI IFR
CONDITIONS. THE LOCATION MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS WL BE SAW
WITH AN UPSLOPE SE WIND OFF LK MI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
EXPECT S WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HI PRES DEPARTING TO
THE E AND A LO PRES MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE LO
WEAKENS AND SLIDES TO THE S. THEN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20
KTS WILL PREVAIL THRU WED AS A HI PRES RIDGE AND RATHER SLACK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATES THE AREA. LOOK FOR STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
TO RETURN ON THU AS A LO PRES MOVES E THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF HI PRES BUILDING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA...TIGHTENING THE
PRES GRADIENT AGAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND
WAVES BUILT UP BY THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF
FREEZING SPRAY TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THE CLOSER APPROACH
OF THE HI ON FRI WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
219 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE BAY AREA TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARD BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER FORECAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:19 PM PST MONDAY...TEMPERATURES IN THE BAY
AREA ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LESS FOG
COVERAGE THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST ARE MUCH COOLER AFTER YESTERDAYS RECORD WARMTH...AS
HIGH CLOUDS NOW BLANKET THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
CIRCULATION LOCATED WEST OF SAN DIEGO. RIGHT NOW SOME RAIN IS
FALLING IN THE DESERTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH 29 PALMS AND
CHINA LAKE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN LAST HOUR. ITS AN UNUSUAL SET-UP
BUT ITS THE MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH THAT WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP EAST OF OUR DISTRICT BUT SOME OF THE MESO-SCALE
MODELS PAINT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTY AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EJECT
INLAND. IN PARTICULAR THE LATEST RAP MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER OVER MONTEREY/SAN BENITO COUNTY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LEFT
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ANY SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES
EASTWARD.
AS THAT LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
NONDESCRIPT WITH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT MAY GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA BY THURSDAY BUT NO PRECIP FOR THE BAY
AREA. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE WORK-WEEK.
ANOTHER WARM WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AS A RIDGE BUILDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND 15 CELSIUS. DOESN`T
LOOK AS WARM AS LAST WEEKEND SO NOT EXPECTING ANY RECORDS.
THE PATTERN BEYOND SUNDAY BECOMES MORE MUDDLED. THE ECMWF AND GEM
MODEL ARE ACTUALLY TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER WHILE THE GFS REMAINS
DRY. GIVEN THE HISTORIC DRY PATTERN WERE UNDER WILL NOT BE
INTRODUCING DAY 7 POPS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST MONDAY...PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS
WILL CLEAR BY LATE MORNING. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SPREAD CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG IN THE VALLEYS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
EASTERLY...TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS WINDS THIS MORNING
BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 1:49 PM PST MONDAY...EAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
850 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASE SHOWERS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND VALLEYS. A
FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500
FOOT ELEVATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHOWERS DISSIPATING QUICKLY
TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER AND BETTER SUNSHINE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS STILL OCCURRING THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LOCAL GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
CURRENTLY DOWN TO 8.2 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...WHEREAS THEY
WERE 12.2 MB 24 HOURS AGO. EXPECT WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS TO CONTINUE
TODAY AS THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER...WITH SOME
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AT THE COAST DESPITE THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEFORMATION ZONE STRETCHING FROM
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA...WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN
DIEGO AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. IT IS EVIDENT THAT THE
LOW IS SPINNING UP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING...BUT MOST OF IT IS IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. ACCORDING TO THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING...MOST OF THE
MOISTURE IS ABOVE 550 MB...AND SO THE ONLY PLACES THAT HAVE REPORTED
MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAVE BEEN MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE RAIN NOT HAVING AS MUCH TIME TO EVAPORATE IN
THE DRY LOW LAYERS BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. THE LOW IS STILL ON
TRACK TO MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN TODAY AND THEN DEVELOP INTO AN OPEN
WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AS MORE MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY THE LOWER LAYERS WILL SATURATE AS
WELL...RESULTING IN BETTER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS PARTICULARLY FOR
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY LIGHT RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING UP FROM SOUTH OF THE BORDER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS WITH ONE THIRD INCH OR LESS IN THE
DESERTS AND INLAND VALLEYS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE COAST. THE
13Z HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY INITIALIZED WELL...AND ACTUALLY
SHOWS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH THIS EVENING. IT IS ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE CANSAC
WRF...LOCAL WRF AND NAM4 HAVE ALL NOTICEABLY BACKED OFF ON THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO WHAT THEY SHOWED
YESTERDAY. THUS...THE CURRENT POPS AND QPF MAY BE OVERDONE. THE WARM
NATURE OF THE STORM WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS HIGH...FALLING TO
7500-8000 FEET THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ABOVE THOSE ELEVATIONS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE
7500 FOOT ELEVATION. FINALLY...LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM LOCAL WRF AND NAM4...DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING
IN COINCIDENCE WITH SOME COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO AND SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST.
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND LOWER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...THERE SHOULD BE SOME COOLING FOR TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH BETTER SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING OVER THE REGION. THEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA/BAJA
MEXICO SATURDAY...AND THEN SOUTH INTO LOWER BAJA MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION...WITH
THE 12Z GFS MOSTLY DRY...AND THE 00Z ECMWF SOMEWHAT WET. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES...THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT TIME SEEM REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
261630Z...BKN-OVC080-120 LOWERING TO 050-080 THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FROM 22-06Z...WITH
LCL OVC040-060 IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVERNIGHT AND ENDING EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
830 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT PST
TONIGHT ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
200 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...
315 AM CST
THROUGH TONIGHT...
AN IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING AS ROARING SUBTROPICAL
JET ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS DEEPENING A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM THAT WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO CARVE OUT THE DEVELOPING TROUGH
IS DIVING SOUTHWARD OVER OUR REGION TODAY. ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF
THIS...FROM MANITOBA TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AN ELONGATED AREA OF
VORTICITY GENERATION WILL SUPPORT FORCING FOR ASCENT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH THE MOST FOCUSED ZONE BEING A BETTER DEFINED WAVE
SEEN OVER CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RUN-TO-RUN TREND ON THE
RAP MODEL EARLY THIS MORNING IS FURTHER
WEST/SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND FAVORING
NORTH CENTRAL IL TO GET IN A PERIOD OF SNOW BEGINNING LATER THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL EXPANSION EAST. WHILE MOST OF THE
SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE
850-700MB CONVERGENCE AND A F-GEN INDUCED CIRCULATION MAY ALLOW
FOR SPOTTY BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW...WHICH HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE TRIES TO INDICATE TOO. WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND WPC
COLLABORATION...HAVE AROUND AN INCH FORECAST IN THE ROCKFORD
AREA...WITH AROUND A HALF INCH FURTHER EAST OF THERE. SOUTHWARD IN
THE FORECAST AREA THE DRY AIR SEEMS MORE PRONOUNCED...SO MAY END
UP JUST BEING FLURRIES AT TIMES.
THE FORCING ALOFT WEAKENS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO BECOME MORE PATCHY IN COVERAGE. THE MOISTURE
IN THE ICE LAYER GRADUALLY DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH STILL SOME LIGHT ADIABATIC ASCENT IN THE LOWEST
COUPLE THOUSAND FEET. IF THAT LOWEST LAYER IS SATURATED OR ABLE TO
THERE COULD BE A FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERN...SO MAINTAIN THE GOING
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...DID BUMP DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES AS CLEARING
LAST NIGHT ALLOWED PLACES TO DROP QUICKLY AND NOW THE CLOUD CANOPY
WILL HINDER THEM FROM WARMING MUCH. FORECAST HIGHS ARE MAINLY IN THE
MID 20S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. WHILE THAT DOES NOT MAKE
HEADLINES IN JANUARY...IF THE FORECAST PANS OUT THIS WOULD BE THE
FIRST DAY WITH HIGHS BELOW 30 SINCE JANUARY 14TH.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
315 AM CST
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BEFORE RETURN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHALLENGE OF CLOUD COVER
PRESENTS ITSELF AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WHILE HAVE SLOWED THE
CLEARING TREND TUESDAY MORNING...STILL THINK THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN AREAWIDE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY IS
FORECAST TO BRING 925MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 0C WHICH USING
CLIMATOLOGY WITH LIMITED SNOW COVER SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MID
TO UPPER 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA
OR CHICAGO METRO.
THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST BY THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AND GET CAUGHT
UP IN THE WESTERLIES BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. WITH THE MASSIVE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHEAST LIKELY TO SLOW
THINGS A BIT...CONTINUE TO LEAN WITH THE SLOWER EC AND GEM MODELS
WHICH WOULD FAVOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES MORE SO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...AROUND 12H SLOWER THAN THE GFS. FORECAST VERTICAL
PROFILES ON BOTH MODELS WOULD SUPPORT MORE OF RAIN AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT THE
VERY LEAST HOLD STEADY IF NOT MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY
TO 35 TO 38 DEGREES GIVEN EC AND GEM SOLUTIONS. ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM IT WOULD SEEM THERE WOULD BE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SNOW
CHANCES. OBVIOUSLY A FEW DAYS OUT AND A CUTOFF LOW INVOLVED...A
LOT COULD CHANGE WITH SPECIFICS...BUT RIGHT NOW THIS IS NOT
LOOKING LIKE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT.
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE WHILE ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST US. THE 00Z EC HAS
FORECAST A STRONG SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO WIN OUT ABOUT A
WEEK FROM NOW AND DRAG DOWN -15C TO -20C 850MB TEMPERATURES.
SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE FIRST DAYS OF FEBRUARY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND TEMPO IFR...AND
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.
* SNOW TAPERING THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO OR
MIXING WITH DRIZZLE.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SHEARED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS HELPING TO DRIVE AN AREA OF SNOW
ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CHICAGO AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
INITIALLY DRY LOW/MID LEVELS WILL TAKE THEIR TIME TO SATURATE AS THE
RADAR RETURNS MOVE OVERHEAD...PRECIPITATION INITIALLY EVAPORATING IN
THE DRY AIR...BUT THEN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH
TEMPO IFR VSBY IN ANY MODERATE BURSTS OF SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL...A DUSTING TO AROUND HALF AN INCH OR
SO. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD
SUPPRESSING THE DEEPER MOISTURE. ON THE OTHER HAND...PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN WEAK ASCENT
LATER INTO THE EVENING WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES...OR
POSSIBLY DRIZZLE AT TIMES AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOSS OF ICE IN THE
COLUMN LATER THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR BUILDS DOWN IN THE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BACK AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBY/CIG TRENDS WITH PRECIP.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN END TIME OF PRECIP TONIGHT. LOW-MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW MAY CHANGE OR MIX WITH DRIZZLE AT SOME
POINT LATE THIS EVENING.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW AT
NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. MVFR LIKELY/IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW/MVFR CIGS.
SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
143 AM CST
ONLY MARINE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS NEAR 30 KT ARE ALSO LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDING SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LAKE. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO PASS QUICKLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON IN WHAT REMAINS A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG MOVING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO ILLINOIS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE FILLING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 20
KTS ON THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING AND BACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES AND WEAKENS.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES BY
TUESDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER MORE DEVELOPED LOW WILL FORM ACROSS THE LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN WINDS INITIALLY BECOMING SOUTH
AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
BACKING TO THE NORTH EARLY THURSDAY AND GUSTING NEAR 30 KT AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS...AS SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MID-MORNING TODAY...AS WAVES
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FROM YESTERDAY/LAST EVENINGS STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1255 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
Brief wave moving through the region bringing some snowfall for
Central Illinois today. Temporary visibility drops associated with
the heavier snowfall. Other than some timely adjustments of pops
and weather for a more expedient system, forecast actually looking
good. Very minor adjustments, but no major updates anticipated at
this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
Latest surface analysis indicating weak high pressure centered from
central lower Michigan southwest through northeast Missouri. Our
next weather system was already producing some light snow across
parts of central Minnesota...which was tracking southeast early this
morning. The main short term forecast concern will be with this weak
upper level system that will track across our area today and the
precip chances with it.
Models have trended a bit further south and west with the upper wave
along with the fairly compact area of lift associated with it.
Forcing in the 700-500 mb layer compact but short lived with this
system and based on the latest HRRR and RAP solutions, it appears
the threat (20-30 POPs) for light snow will track southeast into our
area later this morning and then shift into east central Illinois by
this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings have all trended a
bit deeper with the moisture with this system and cold enough to
support light snow except over far southwest Illinois where there
may be a mix of rain and snow for a few hours as surface temps rise
into the middle 30s.
Despite the decent low to mid level forcing with this wave, QPF
amounts will be light with any snow accumulations of less than an
inch. As the better forcing shifts off to our east, we start to lose
the ice crystals in the upper levels of the clouds that would support
mainly light snow. Nam time-height cross sections showing some very
weak lift tracking thru the area late this afternoon in the 925-850
mb layer so not the greatest setup for freezing drizzle but will
need to be watched later this afternoon and evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
Elongated short wave will gradually shift east of IL by dawn Tue
with light snow chances shifting east of IL into Indiana. Low clouds
will be slow to clear from the west Tue with mostly cloudy skies
generally prevailing with IL river valley having better chance of
becoming partly sunny during Tue afternoon. Seasonable highs in the
mid to upper 30s Tue with north winds 8-15 mph. Low clouds to
continue to decrease Tue night as weak surface high pressure ridge
sets up over IL by Tue evening. Lows Tue night in the low to mid
20s.
Upper level ridging into IL Wed will give partly to mostly sunny
skies, while 1005 mb surface low pressure moving east into the
central plains Wed to give breezy sse winds of milder air into the
region with highs in the 40s Wed (ranging from lower 40s ne counties
to near 50F from Jacksonville sw. Low pressure to move east across
central IL during Wed night and bring a chance of light rain with
lows staying above freezing in the mid to upper 30s. Light rain
chances to diminish from west to east during Thu and could see light
snow chances too over northern counties before ending as cooler air
arrives on back side of low pressure moving into the southern Great
Lakes region. Highs Thu range from upper 30s to near 40F IL river
valley to upper 40s in southeast IL.
Dry conditions and cooler temps return to central/se IL from Thu
night thru Fri night as high pressure settles into the ohio river
valley by Friday evening. Highs Fri back to seasonable levels for
late Jan in the mid to upper 30s. Continued slight chances of light
snow Sat and Sat night as cold front moves through. A cutoff upper
level low in the sw states late this week will move east and keeps
brunt of its qpf south of central IL, though some models have us on
northern edge of lighter qpf this weekend. Also have a northern
stream clipper system moving through the Great Lakes Sat and Sat
night that drives a cold front through IL. May need to increase
chances of light snow this weekend, though timing issues and also
question if any phasing can take place better stronger southern
stream system and weaken northern stream short wave. Also southern
areas could see a mix of precipitation on Sat before colder air
arrives Sat night. MEX/GFS appears too warm with temps behind cold
front Sun/Mon and oddly doesn`t cool it off much from Sat. ECMWF/ECE
model cools off much more Sun/Mon. Did not go as cold as this model,
but have temps dropping from highs in upper 30s/near 40F Sat to
upper 20s/lower 30s Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015
Wave moving through Central Illinois and bringing quick drops in
category to IFR and isolated LIFR with some of the heavier snow bands.
Heavier showers not always discernible on radar making the TAF
trends difficult. PIA and SPI soon to the on the back edge of the
heavier snows...with cigs around 2kft...but a few obs with holes
to VFR. TAF forecast to the more degraded conditions as moisture
saturates through the column and drops categories more widespread
through the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Winds becoming
more NWrly. Models keeping low cigs through the overnight with
some MVFR reductions in vis predominant...with possible patchy drops
to IFR.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1155 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...
315 AM CST
THROUGH TONIGHT...
AN IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING AS ROARING SUBTROPICAL
JET ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS DEEPENING A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM THAT WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO CARVE OUT THE DEVELOPING TROUGH
IS DIVING SOUTHWARD OVER OUR REGION TODAY. ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF
THIS...FROM MANITOBA TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AN ELONGATED AREA OF
VORTICITY GENERATION WILL SUPPORT FORCING FOR ASCENT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH THE MOST FOCUSED ZONE BEING A BETTER DEFINED WAVE
SEEN OVER CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RUN-TO-RUN TREND ON THE
RAP MODEL EARLY THIS MORNING IS FURTHER
WEST/SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND FAVORING
NORTH CENTRAL IL TO GET IN A PERIOD OF SNOW BEGINNING LATER THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL EXPANSION EAST. WHILE MOST OF THE
SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE
850-700MB CONVERGENCE AND A F-GEN INDUCED CIRCULATION MAY ALLOW
FOR SPOTTY BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW...WHICH HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE TRIES TO INDICATE TOO. WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND WPC
COLLABORATION...HAVE AROUND AN INCH FORECAST IN THE ROCKFORD
AREA...WITH AROUND A HALF INCH FURTHER EAST OF THERE. SOUTHWARD IN
THE FORECAST AREA THE DRY AIR SEEMS MORE PRONOUNCED...SO MAY END
UP JUST BEING FLURRIES AT TIMES.
THE FORCING ALOFT WEAKENS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO BECOME MORE PATCHY IN COVERAGE. THE MOISTURE
IN THE ICE LAYER GRADUALLY DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH STILL SOME LIGHT ADIABATIC ASCENT IN THE LOWEST
COUPLE THOUSAND FEET. IF THAT LOWEST LAYER IS SATURATED OR ABLE TO
THERE COULD BE A FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERN...SO MAINTAIN THE GOING
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...DID BUMP DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES AS CLEARING
LAST NIGHT ALLOWED PLACES TO DROP QUICKLY AND NOW THE CLOUD CANOPY
WILL HINDER THEM FROM WARMING MUCH. FORECAST HIGHS ARE MAINLY IN THE
MID 20S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. WHILE THAT DOES NOT MAKE
HEADLINES IN JANUARY...IF THE FORECAST PANS OUT THIS WOULD BE THE
FIRST DAY WITH HIGHS BELOW 30 SINCE JANUARY 14TH.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
315 AM CST
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BEFORE RETURN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHALLENGE OF CLOUD COVER
PRESENTS ITSELF AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WHILE HAVE SLOWED THE
CLEARING TREND TUESDAY MORNING...STILL THINK THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN AREAWIDE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY IS
FORECAST TO BRING 925MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 0C WHICH USING
CLIMATOLOGY WITH LIMITED SNOW COVER SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MID
TO UPPER 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA
OR CHICAGO METRO.
THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST BY THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AND GET CAUGHT
UP IN THE WESTERLIES BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. WITH THE MASSIVE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHEAST LIKELY TO SLOW
THINGS A BIT...CONTINUE TO LEAN WITH THE SLOWER EC AND GEM MODELS
WHICH WOULD FAVOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES MORE SO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...AROUND 12H SLOWER THAN THE GFS. FORECAST VERTICAL
PROFILES ON BOTH MODELS WOULD SUPPORT MORE OF RAIN AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT THE
VERY LEAST HOLD STEADY IF NOT MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY
TO 35 TO 38 DEGREES GIVEN EC AND GEM SOLUTIONS. ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM IT WOULD SEEM THERE WOULD BE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SNOW
CHANCES. OBVIOUSLY A FEW DAYS OUT AND A CUTOFF LOW INVOLVED...A
LOT COULD CHANGE WITH SPECIFICS...BUT RIGHT NOW THIS IS NOT
LOOKING LIKE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT.
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE WHILE ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST US. THE 00Z EC HAS
FORECAST A STRONG SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO WIN OUT ABOUT A
WEEK FROM NOW AND DRAG DOWN -15C TO -20C 850MB TEMPERATURES.
SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE FIRST DAYS OF FEBRUARY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND TEMPO IFR...AND
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.
* SNOW TAPERING THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO OR
MIXING WITH DRIZZLE.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SHEARED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS HELPING TO DRIVE AN AREA OF SNOW
ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CHICAGO AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
INITIALLY DRY LOW/MID LEVELS WILL TAKE THEIR TIME TO SATURATE AS THE
RADAR RETURNS MOVE OVERHEAD...PRECIPITATION INITIALLY EVAPORATING IN
THE DRY AIR...BUT THEN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH
TEMPO IFR VSBY IN ANY MODERATE BURSTS OF SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL...A DUSTING TO AROUND HALF AN INCH OR
SO. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD
SUPPRESSING THE DEEPER MOISTURE. ON THE OTHER HAND...PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN WEAK ASCENT
LATER INTO THE EVENING WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES...OR
POSSIBLY DRIZZLE AT TIMES AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOSS OF ICE IN THE
COLUMN LATER THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR BUILDS DOWN IN THE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BACK AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW/TIMING BUT LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
VSBY/CIG TRENDS WITH PRECIP.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN END TIME OF PRECIP TONIGHT. LOW-MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW MAY CHANGE OR MIX WITH DRIZZLE AT SOME
POINT LATE THIS EVENING.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW AT
NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. MVFR LIKELY/IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW/MVFR CIGS.
SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
143 AM CST
ONLY MARINE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS NEAR 30 KT ARE ALSO LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDING SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LAKE. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO PASS QUICKLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON IN WHAT REMAINS A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG MOVING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO ILLINOIS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE FILLING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 20
KTS ON THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING AND BACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES AND WEAKENS.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES BY
TUESDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER MORE DEVELOPED LOW WILL FORM ACROSS THE LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN WINDS INITIALLY BECOMING SOUTH
AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
BACKING TO THE NORTH EARLY THURSDAY AND GUSTING NEAR 30 KT AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS...AS SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MID-MORNING TODAY...AS WAVES
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FROM YESTERDAY/LAST EVENINGS STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1041 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
Brief wave moving through the region bringing some snowfall for
Central Illinois today. Temporary visibility drops associated with
the heavier snowfall. Other than some timely adjustments of pops
and weather for a more expedient system, forecast actually looking
good. Very minor adjustments, but no major updates anticipated at
this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
Latest surface analysis indicating weak high pressure centered from
central lower Michigan southwest through northeast Missouri. Our
next weather system was already producing some light snow across
parts of central Minnesota...which was tracking southeast early this
morning. The main short term forecast concern will be with this weak
upper level system that will track across our area today and the
precip chances with it.
Models have trended a bit further south and west with the upper wave
along with the fairly compact area of lift associated with it.
Forcing in the 700-500 mb layer compact but short lived with this
system and based on the latest HRRR and RAP solutions, it appears
the threat (20-30 POPs) for light snow will track southeast into our
area later this morning and then shift into east central Illinois by
this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings have all trended a
bit deeper with the moisture with this system and cold enough to
support light snow except over far southwest Illinois where there
may be a mix of rain and snow for a few hours as surface temps rise
into the middle 30s.
Despite the decent low to mid level forcing with this wave, QPF
amounts will be light with any snow accumulations of less than an
inch. As the better forcing shifts off to our east, we start to lose
the ice crystals in the upper levels of the clouds that would support
mainly light snow. Nam time-height cross sections showing some very
weak lift tracking thru the area late this afternoon in the 925-850
mb layer so not the greatest setup for freezing drizzle but will
need to be watched later this afternoon and evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
Elongated short wave will gradually shift east of IL by dawn Tue
with light snow chances shifting east of IL into Indiana. Low clouds
will be slow to clear from the west Tue with mostly cloudy skies
generally prevailing with IL river valley having better chance of
becoming partly sunny during Tue afternoon. Seasonable highs in the
mid to upper 30s Tue with north winds 8-15 mph. Low clouds to
continue to decrease Tue night as weak surface high pressure ridge
sets up over IL by Tue evening. Lows Tue night in the low to mid
20s.
Upper level ridging into IL Wed will give partly to mostly sunny
skies, while 1005 mb surface low pressure moving east into the
central plains Wed to give breezy sse winds of milder air into the
region with highs in the 40s Wed (ranging from lower 40s ne counties
to near 50F from Jacksonville sw. Low pressure to move east across
central IL during Wed night and bring a chance of light rain with
lows staying above freezing in the mid to upper 30s. Light rain
chances to diminish from west to east during Thu and could see light
snow chances too over northern counties before ending as cooler air
arrives on back side of low pressure moving into the southern Great
Lakes region. Highs Thu range from upper 30s to near 40F IL river
valley to upper 40s in southeast IL.
Dry conditions and cooler temps return to central/se IL from Thu
night thru Fri night as high pressure settles into the ohio river
valley by Friday evening. Highs Fri back to seasonable levels for
late Jan in the mid to upper 30s. Continued slight chances of light
snow Sat and Sat night as cold front moves through. A cutoff upper
level low in the sw states late this week will move east and keeps
brunt of its qpf south of central IL, though some models have us on
northern edge of lighter qpf this weekend. Also have a northern
stream clipper system moving through the Great Lakes Sat and Sat
night that drives a cold front through IL. May need to increase
chances of light snow this weekend, though timing issues and also
question if any phasing can take place better stronger southern
stream system and weaken northern stream short wave. Also southern
areas could see a mix of precipitation on Sat before colder air
arrives Sat night. MEX/GFS appears too warm with temps behind cold
front Sun/Mon and oddly doesn`t cool it off much from Sat. ECMWF/ECE
model cools off much more Sun/Mon. Did not go as cold as this model,
but have temps dropping from highs in upper 30s/near 40F Sat to
upper 20s/lower 30s Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
Next weather system quickly tracking southeast out of Minnesota
this morning and will begin to affect our area after 15z this
morning with lower cigs and a period of -SN that may restrict
vsbys for a brief time as well. After that, forecast soundings
indicate as the system that brings the scattered light snow
to the area today moves away, we will lose the ice crystals
needed to support light snow with the threat for some freezing
drizzle late this afternoon and especially this evening. Not
very confident on the freezing drizzle at this point so will
not include in the 12z forecast but something to watch for
in later forecasts.
MVFR cigs still linger at DEC and CMI but based on latest
satellite data, they were very close to the backedge of the clouds
and will probably scatter the lower cigs out with VFR cigs
thereafter until early afternoon when all areas will see cigs
lower to MVFR with local IFR cigs in the areas of light snow. For
now, will include a tempo group for light snow only at PIA and BMI
this afternoon with VCSH for the remainder of the TAF sites. Look
for MVFR and occasional IFR cigs to prevail into the evening
hours.
Surface winds will be out of the south at around 10 kts today
with a wind shift into the northwest later this evening with
speeds tonight at 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1147 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
INTRODUCED PATCHY FZDZ/FLURRIES BETWEEN HIGHWAY 20 TO HIGHWAY 34
AND GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 169 THROUGH 14Z WITH THE WEAK BAND
OF PRECIP QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH THAT IS JUST MOVING INTO THE FORT
DODGE AREA AS OF 6 AM. ALGONA AND FOREST CITY REPORTING UP...ONLY
CONFIRMING PRECIP IS FINALLY ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE. SHOULD BE
VERY SHORT-LIVED AND LOOKS TO EXIT THE DSM METRO BY 730-8AM.
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FZDZ
TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE FROM 10Z TO 14Z WITH SOME
LINGERING POPS THROUGH 15Z NEAR THE ALO AREA. LEANED TOWARD A
BLEND OF THE NAM12/RAP FOR POPS TODAY AND TOWARDS THE WARMER
RAP/ECMWF FOR TEMPS.
THE RAP AND NAM MCW/FOD SOUNDINGS HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING
COMPLETELY SATURATED AS THEY DEPICT A DEEP DRY LAYER BETWEEN 850-
650MB. CERTAINLY SATURATED BELOW 850MB AND ABOVE 650MB...SO SEEDER
FEEDER POTENTIAL EXISTS BUT FORCING WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
VERY WEAK AND ANY SNOW WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT THROUGH
THIS DRY LAYER. IT MAY SNOW FOR A SHORT STINT BY AROUND 12Z-13Z
ONCE THE COLUMN COMPLETELY SATURATES NEAR MCW/ALO AREA BUT THE
RAP KEEPS THE DRY LAYER THROUGH THE ENTIRE MORNING. AS A
RESULT...WITH THE LACK OF ANY ICE INTRODUCTION...HAVE MENTION OF
FZDZ THIS MORNING. ONLY A MINOR TRAVEL CONCERN WITH THE FZDZ AS
EXPECTING WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ADVECT IN AND WITH THE VERY
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND
SPORADIC AT BEST. PLUS...MUCH OF THE PRECIP RETURNS ON RADAR IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND WITH ONLY A COUPLE
SPOTS REPORTING -SN ATTM.
WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE RAP/ECMWF FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY. THE NAM/GFS/SREF SEEMED TOO COLD FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GOOD MIXING AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD PUT TEMPS BACK IN THE
50S FOR THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
MAIN THEMES FOR THE WEEK CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SLIDING NEARLY DUE SOUTH TOWARD US WILL
BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE H500/H700 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. ALMOST IMMEDIATELY ANOTHER LEE SIDE TROUGH/BOUNDARY
WILL FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ENHANCE SOME CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO
FAR WITH RATHER MILD READINGS FOR JANUARY IN THE 20S NORTHEAST TO
30S SOUTH. BY TOMORROW...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LITTLE MIXING WITH ANY WARMING SOLELY DUE TO
INSOLATION. THUS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY
WITH A SUN CLOUD MIX. PATTERN FOR US REMAINS RATHER BENIGN FOR A
FEW MORE DAYS...COMPARED TO EAST COAST...AND WE SHOULD BEGIN A
NICE WARMING TREND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z WED BOTH GFS/00Z EURO INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL STREAM ACROSS MOST OF IOWA. A SFC WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL IOWA KEEPING THE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR THROUGH THE NOON HOUR. EURO H850 TEMPS WARM CONSIDERABLY TO
+10C TO +12C WITH GFS +6C TO +8C THROUGH 18Z WITH SOME COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR BOTH MODELS AS CLOUDS THICKEN. SIMILAR TO JAN
16TH...AM EXPECTING STRONG WARMING TO OUR SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
GENERALLY NOT BE MODIFIED MUCH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO OUR
AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LAG WARMTH POTENTIAL AS WITH PREVIOUS
SIMILAR EVENT. SUNDAY HIGHS TO OUR SOUTHWEST WERE ALREADY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH 4C TO 6C H850 TEMPS. HAVE RAISED TMAX FOR
WED TO LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST FOR NOW AND THIS MAY
BE TOO COOL. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW WED NIGHT ONE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST BY MORNING WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DRIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER THE EAST DURING THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN EURO H850 WINDS
QUITE STRONG WITH 45 TO NEAR 50 KTS EARLY IN THE DAY REMAINING
NEAR 45KTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LIKELY THAT SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL BE NEAR 2O TO 25 MPH WITH GUST POTENTIAL ABOVE 40 KTS.
DESPITE THE EURO SHOWING A STRONGER SOLN THAN THE 00Z GFS...GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEARLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY AND MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SOLNS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL PACKAGES. BREEZY DAY
NONE THE LESS. MORE WAVE ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEAST FROM THE POLAR
ANCHOR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY AND LATE SUNDAY. THERE
IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE H500
VORTEX AS IT DEEPENS AND EXPANDS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE 00Z EURO DROPS ONE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH A SECOND FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL H500 WAVE BY 12Z SUNDAY.
PROGGED H850 TEMPS PLUMMET TO -20C TO -26C MONDAY. NEITHER THE GEM
NOR THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS SUPPORT THE SAME COLD SOLUTION OF THE
EURO FOR NOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OF THE MEX GUIDANCE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT THE GEM DEVELOPS A DECENT STORM PASSING JUST
TO OUR EAST WHILE THE EURO SHEARS THE SYSTEM EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. WILL NEED TO EVALUATE OVER THE COMING DAYS AND
TAKE A MORE MODEST APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES FOR NOW AS PAST TWO
NIGHTS THERE HAS BEEN NO CONSISTENCY OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. BETTER CLARITY IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
&&
.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
IFR/MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN IOWA WITH THE WESTERN
EDGE NEAR KALO AND KOTM. EXPECT KOTM AND OTHER SITES TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER KALO WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE STRATUS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS OVER MINNESOTA WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NW TODAY THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PODRAZIK
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...DONAVON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
110 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
THE BAND OF STEADIER SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ON UPSLOPE FLOW/INSTABILITY
LINGERING BEHIND THIS. SOME OF THIS LIGHTER SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE
BELOW THE RADAR BEAM...SO THE AREAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME MAY BE A BIT
GREATER THAN INDICATED BY RADAR. THE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND WE CURRENTLY
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...SO NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
PLACES...WITH A BUMP DOWN IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND THEN NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS
THAN A HALF OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING AND SOME LIGHT FALLING PRECIP SHOULD ACT TO COOL
ROADWAYS AND SURFACES AND SLICK OR REFREEZE SPOTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON ANY UNTREATED LOCATIONS. THESE COULD BECOME MORE
PREVALENT BY DARK...DEPENDING ON WHERE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
OCCUR. AN SPS HAS BEEN REISSUED TO HANDLE THIS AND GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THE MORNING AS CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRICKY OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT FROM NW TO SE THIS
MORNING. FRESHENED UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS THIS MORNING
INCLUDING A QUICK UPDATE OF WX GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW TRANSITION THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER PART. THE RUB HERE
IS THAT THE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN TAKING HITS LATELY WITH THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A ONCE DISCARDED SOLUTION...MAINLY SEEN EARLIER IN
THE GFS...HAS RETURNED WITH SOME LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF.
EARLY ON...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A FAST FLOW OF ENERGY ROILS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PATH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
VORT STREAM IS SHUNTED EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS
FROM A WEAKENING SOUTHERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THEN OVER THE LOWER OHIO BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A
DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDE EAST.
THIS FEATURE RAMPS UP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS
TROUGH CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT FLOW TO
FOLLOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NATION A LARGE
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS NOW DEPICTED...PARTICULARLY BY
THE LATEST ECMWF...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FLOW RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS NOW SHOW SOME
CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS
OUT. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A
MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...A BLEND
OF THE MODELS WAS PREFERRED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY CONCERNS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE
STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF
SLIDING NORTHEAST WHILE SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
BUT THAT WILL SURELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.
THE CR GRID LOAD MADE FOR AN OKAY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GRIDS WITH CHANGES MADE PRIMARILY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
EXPECT VARYING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
THIS...ACTIVITY...CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE AT AIRFIELD MINS OR JUST
ABOVE FOR THE TAF SITES. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE SHORT IN
DURATION DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AROUND 00Z THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM/SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1205 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
THE BAND OF STEADIER SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ON UPSLOPE FLOW/INSTABILITY
LINGERING BEHIND THIS. SOME OF THIS LIGHTER SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE
BELOW THE RADAR BEAM...SO THE AREAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME MAY BE A BIT
GREATER THAN INDICATED BY RADAR. THE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND WE CURRENTLY
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...SO NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
PLACES...WITH A BUMP DOWN IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND THEN NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS
THAN A HALF OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING AND SOME LIGHT FALLING PRECIP SHOULD ACT TO COOL
ROADWAYS AND SURFACES AND SLICK OR REFREEZE SPOTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON ANY UNTREATED LOCATIONS. THESE COULD BECOME MORE
PREVALENT BY DARK...DEPENDING ON WHERE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
OCCUR. AN SPS HAS BEEN REISSUED TO HANDLE THIS AND GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THE MORNING AS CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRICKY OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT FROM NW TO SE THIS
MORNING. FRESHENED UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS THIS MORNING
INCLUDING A QUICK UPDATE OF WX GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW TRANSITION THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER PART. THE RUB HERE
IS THAT THE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN TAKING HITS LATELY WITH THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A ONCE DISCARDED SOLUTION...MAINLY SEEN EARLIER IN
THE GFS...HAS RETURNED WITH SOME LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF.
EARLY ON...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A FAST FLOW OF ENERGY ROILS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PATH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
VORT STREAM IS SHUNTED EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS
FROM A WEAKENING SOUTHERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THEN OVER THE LOWER OHIO BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A
DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDE EAST.
THIS FEATURE RAMPS UP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS
TROUGH CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT FLOW TO
FOLLOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NATION A LARGE
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS NOW DEPICTED...PARTICULARLY BY
THE LATEST ECMWF...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FLOW RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS NOW SHOW SOME
CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS
OUT. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A
MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...A BLEND
OF THE MODELS WAS PREFERRED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY CONCERNS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE
STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF
SLIDING NORTHEAST WHILE SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
BUT THAT WILL SURELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.
THE CR GRID LOAD MADE FOR AN OKAY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GRIDS WITH CHANGES MADE PRIMARILY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
MOST SITES HAVE COME DOWN THIS MORNING TO IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW SITES ARE SEEING LOWER VIS DUE TO FOG AND/OR SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THOSE SITES. COLDER AIR IS SLOWING MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND WILL TRANSITION RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE A FEW SITES ARE SEEING GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS AS WINDS BEGIN SWITCHING WEST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO FILTER INTO EASTERN KY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
437 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
NAMERICA...FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS INTO SW CANADA AND A
TROF OVER THE E. RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS CARRYING
SEVERAL MINOR DISTURBANCES TO THE SE...AND THIS HAS LED TO BKN PCPN
EXTENDING FROM IL/IN NNW INTO NRN ONTARIO PER REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE DIMINISHING AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS
NOW SSE OF UPPER MI AND A SECOND AREA DROPPING SSE TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE ENHANCED CLOUDS WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAVE
NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS...AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA
RADAR NEAR THUNDER BAY SHOWS A DECENT AREA OF ASSOCIATED SNOW
APPROACHING NW LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE SE...AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE MI AT THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER SE WINDS
LED TO SOME SNOW SPREADING OFF LAKE MI INTO DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES
TODAY. ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE THINNED JUST
ENOUGH TO SEE THAT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
REMAINING ON NRN LAKE MI NOW.
SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE NW WILL DIVE SE ACROSS UPPER MI TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE ENHANCED CLOUDS JUST NNW OF THE AREA...SNOW DEPICTED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR IMAGERY NEAR THUNDER BAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE INDICATED BY MODELS...EXPECT ANOTHER AREA OF STEADIER
-SN TO SPREAD SSE ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL FCST AREA THIS EVENING.
ERN EDGE OF THE FORCING WILL BE UP AGAINST A STEADY FEED OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR EMANATING FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS IS CERTAINLY EVIDENT IN NAM/GFS/RUC13 FCST SOUNDINGS
WHICH MAINTAIN A DRY WEDGE IN ROUGHLY THE 2-5KFT LAYER...AND HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW PCPN STAYING W OF ROUGHLY A KISQ/SHINGLETON LINE
WITH ONLY THE GEM GETTING PCPN CLOSE TO KERY. THUS...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY SNOW IN THE FCST OVER THE FAR E TONIGHT. THAT SAID...THE
ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE WOULD BE FOR A COUPLE OF THE LES BANDS OFF NRN
LAKE HURON TO STREAK WNW INTO LUCE COUNTY FOR A TIME TONIGHT. BACK
TO THE W...HIGH RES MODELS SHOW PCPN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.03 TO 0.1 INCH
RANGE TONIGHT...FALLING ALMOST ENTIRELY BEFORE 06Z. WITH SLR
PROBABLY AROUND 17 TO 1...THIS SUGGESTS SNOW AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES. WITH LOW-LEVEL SE WINDS PROVIDING
UPSLOPING/MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM IRON RIVER TO
NEGAUNEE TO ESCANABA. AS FOR TEMPS...BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS OVER THE
FAR E WHERE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT ENOUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT FOR TEMPS
TO PLUMMET UNDER LIGHT/CALM WIND. FOR NOW...INDICATED MINS NEAR
ZERO IN THAT AREA.
QUIET DAY ON THE WAY FOR TUE WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER UPPER MI.
WHILE THE E WILL PROBABLY ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE W AND CNTRL. EXPECT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LWR 20S E TO THE UPPER 20S W.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
THERE WILL BE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...BUT IT WILL LARGELY STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND SEND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO START THE PERIOD...WHILE THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA...WHILE
THERE WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
IN THAT AREA...BUT OVER THE EAST...CLEARING IN THE EVENING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. DID TREND TOWARDS THE BETTER PERFORMING GEM MODELS OVER
THE EAST IN THOSE CLEAR SKY AND RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATIONS.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY (FROM A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS) AND THREE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY (TIED
TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA FROM MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE 850-700MB TROUGH. SHOULD SEE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST. COLDER AIR IS DELAYED BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...SO DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BUT
DID FACTOR IN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FOR THURSDAY. WITH THAT LACK
OF COLD AIR...THE CLOUD THERMAL PROFILE IS ON THE EDGE FOR ICE
CRYSTALS. AT THIS POINT...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AND LEFT OUT
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.
THE COLD AIR FINALLY ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO
FRIDAY UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. EXPECT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
TO OCCUR IN THOSE SNOW BELTS...BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABOVE 4-5KFT. THUS...THINK
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THEY WILL BE EFFICIENT
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE CLOUD BEING ABOVE THE DGZ.
WINDS WILL BACK ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR
(MID -20S 850MB TEMPS) INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT POPS BEHIND THAT TROUGH IN THE NW WIND
SNOW BELTS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR...EXPECT LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT GOOD VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
IN THE WAKE OF STEADIER SNOW THAT AFFECTED KIWD THIS MORNING...
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTN. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SSE WILL BRING A ROUND OF -SN TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. WHILE KIWD SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AS THE -SN
PASSES...STEADIER SNOW AT KCMX/KSAW WILL LIKELY DROP CONDITIONS
FROM VFR TO IFR. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR AT KIWD BY LATE EVENING. IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THRU TUE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
WITH WEAK LOW PRES OVER NE MN DROPPING SSE TONIGHT...STRONGER S
WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN LAKE SUEPRIOR THRU THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAKER PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE W...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT. WINDS WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE TUE/WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS SSE FROM
THE UPPER LAKES. LOW PRES WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER LAKES THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...N TO
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT THU/THU NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH
PRES PASSES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
435 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
NAMERICA...FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS INTO SW CANADA AND A
TROF OVER THE E. RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS CARRYING
SEVERAL MINOR DISTURBANCES TO THE SE...AND THIS HAS LED TO BKN PCPN
EXTENDING FROM IL/IN NNW INTO NRN ONTARIO PER REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE DIMINISHING AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS
NOW SSE OF UPPER MI AND A SECOND AREA DROPPING SSE TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE ENHANCED CLOUDS WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAVE
NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS...AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA
RADAR NEAR THUNDER BAY SHOWS A DECENT AREA OF ASSOCIATED SNOW
APPROACHING NW LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE SE...AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE MI AT THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER SE WINDS
LED TO SOME SNOW SPREADING OFF LAKE MI INTO DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES
TODAY. ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE THINNED JUST
ENOUGH TO SEE THAT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
REMAINING ON NRN LAKE MI NOW.
SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE NW WILL DIVE SE ACROSS UPPER MI TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE ENHANCED CLOUDS JUST NNW OF THE AREA...SNOW DEPICTED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR IMAGERY NEAR THUNDER BAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE INDICATED BY MODELS...EXPECT ANOTHER AREA OF STEADIER
-SN TO SPREAD SSE ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL FCST AREA THIS EVENING.
ERN EDGE OF THE FORCING WILL BE UP AGAINST A STEADY FEED OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR EMANATING FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS IS CERTAINLY EVIDENT IN NAM/GFS/RUC13 FCST SOUNDINGS
WHICH MAINTAIN A DRY WEDGE IN ROUGHLY THE 2-5KFT LAYER...AND HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW PCPN STAYING W OF ROUGHLY A KISQ/SHINGLETON LINE
WITH ONLY THE GEM GETTING PCPN CLOSE TO KERY. THUS...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY SNOW IN THE FCST OVER THE FAR E TONIGHT. THAT SAID...THE
ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE WOULD BE FOR A COUPLE OF THE LES BANDS OFF NRN
LAKE HURON TO STREAK WNW INTO LUCE COUNTY FOR A TIME TONIGHT. BACK
TO THE W...HIGH RES MODELS SHOW PCPN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.03 TO 0.1 INCH
RANGE TONIGHT...FALLING ALMOST ENTIRELY BEFORE 06Z. WITH SLR
PROBABLY AROUND 17 TO 1...THIS SUGGESTS SNOW AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES. WITH LOW-LEVEL SE WINDS PROVIDING
UPSLOPING/MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM IRON RIVER TO
NEGAUNEE TO ESCANABA. AS FOR TEMPS...BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS OVER THE
FAR E WHERE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT ENOUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT FOR TEMPS
TO PLUMMET UNDER LIGHT/CALM WIND. FOR NOW...INDICATED MINS NEAR
ZERO IN THAT AREA.
QUIET DAY ON THE WAY FOR TUE WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER UPPER MI.
WHILE THE E WILL PROBABLY ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE W AND CNTRL. EXPECT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LWR 20S E TO THE UPPER 20S W.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
WITH THE 500MB LOW AND THE AXIS OF THE 500MB TROUGH SHIFTED OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES TUESDAY...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE W HALF OF
THE NATION WILL BE ABLE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SFC...A RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY /EXTENDING FROM MN UP THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND/...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE A DRY PERIOD AT LEAST UNTIL MID DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING/STUCK BELOW THE 850-900MB
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TRICKY CLOUD COVER FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY IN A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. 850MB TEMPS ON S FLOW WILL RISE TO -1 TO
-4C THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE NW.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL EDGE E ACROSS IL AND IN THURSDAY
MORNING...AND OFF TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
SUPPRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-5IN OF SNOW WITH SLR VALUES AROUND 15:1. EXPECT
THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR SNOW TO BEGIN S CENTRAL. WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS QUICK WITH THE INVADING PRECIP AS THE 00Z NAM...BUT
A BLENDED SOLUTION SOUNDS REASONABLE. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 2-5IN CAN FALL IN A 12HR PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK
INTO THIS FOR POSSIBLE POSTING OF HEADLINES ON TUESDAY...AND
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN THE HWO.
N FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SFC TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
START OF OUR COOL DOWN...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8 TO -10C.
WHILE NOT QUITE OPTIMAL FOR LAKE EFFECT YET...SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE UPSLOPE N SNOWBELTS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/PENNSYLVANIA
FRIDAY EVENING.
DESPITE SFC-500MB RIDGING ON FRIDAY...A FEW LINGERING LES WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AS THE MOISTURE IS AGAIN TRAPPED BELOW 850MB.
BUT WILL THE MOISTURE LAYER IN THE DGZ /850MB TEMPS OF -15 TO
-17C/...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL PUSH IN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEARING FROM THE N PLAINS STATES.
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING
ISSUES ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 6HRS...WHICH IS PRETTY MINOR THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST...AND A BLENDED SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. 850MB
TEMPS OF -20 TO -30C WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
EXITS AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LOOK FOR FINE LES THAT WILL BE GOOD AT REDUCING VIS...ESPECIALLY IF
THE STRONGER NW WINDS OF THE 25/12Z ECMWF ARE CORRECT/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
IN THE WAKE OF STEADIER SNOW THAT AFFECTED KIWD THIS MORNING...
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTN. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SSE WILL BRING A ROUND OF -SN TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. WHILE KIWD SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AS THE -SN
PASSES...STEADIER SNOW AT KCMX/KSAW WILL LIKELY DROP CONDITIONS
FROM VFR TO IFR. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR AT KIWD BY LATE EVENING. IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THRU TUE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
WITH WEAK LOW PRES OVER NE MN DROPPING SSE TONIGHT...STRONGER S
WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN LAKE SUEPRIOR THRU THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAKER PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE W...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT. WINDS WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE TUE/WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS SSE FROM
THE UPPER LAKES. LOW PRES WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER LAKES THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...N TO
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT THU/THU NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH
PRES PASSES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1249 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN A HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W AND A DEEP
TROF OVER THE E. THERE ARE 2 SHRTWVS OF INTEREST EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW...THE FIRST IS DIGGING SEWD INTO NW MN WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING
SEWD THRU NRN MANITOBA/FAR NW ONTARIO. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS 998MB LO
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA IS THE SFC REFLECTION OF THESE DISTURBANCES.
UPR MI IS UNDER THE SSW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND SLOWLY RETREATING
ARCTIC HI PRES NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THE PRES GRADIENT IS
MUCH TIGHTER OVER MN CLOSER TO THE LO...AND SOME LIGHT SN IS NOTED
ON THE SFC OBS/RADAR COMPOSITES MOVING THRU NRN MN. ALTHOUGH NEARBY
RAOBS SHOW SOME MID LVL MSTR WITH 00Z H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF ONLY
2C AND 4C AT YPL AND INL RESPECTIVELY...THE RAOBS ALSO INDICATE SOME
LLVL DRY AIR LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 00Z H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 26C AT MPX...22C AT GRB AND EVEN 13C AT INL/10C AT
YPL CLOSER TO THE SFC LO. SO THE OBSVD SN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
NOT THAT GREAT DESPITE SOME FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED ON
THE 290K SFC /ABOUT H7/.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2 SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE. SINCE THERE ARE 2
DISTURBANCES/SEPARATE AREAS OF DEEP LYR FORCING...THE INITIAL SHRTWV
IS TENDING TO TRACK FARTHER W DUE TO THE HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN AND
LARGER SCALE MSTR INFLOW WL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT SN
AMOUNTS TO BE SUB ADVY.
SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO NW MN IS PROGGED TO DIG SSEWD THIS MRNG...
WITH AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
290K SFC IMPACTING MAINLY JUST THE WRN CWA THIS MRNG. THE SECOND
SHRTWV WL REACH FAR NW LK SUP LATE THIS AFTN...WITH AREA OF
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC BUT WEAKER ISENTROPIC ASCENT INFLUENCING
MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVNG BEFORE FADING OVERNGT WITH APRCH OF
TRAILING SHRTWV RDG AXIS AND DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. WHILE THE
EXPECTED FORCING MAY JUSTIFY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS UNDER THE
BETTER FORCING...LIMITED MSTR INFLOW WL BE A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR.
IN FACT THE H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST UP TO 2 G/KG OVER THE W THIS
MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN IS FCST TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENT. SO
DESPITE A FAVORABLE DEPTH/LOCATION OF THE DGZ CENTERED ARND 10K
FT...EXPECT SN TOTALS NOT MORE THAN 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES...
HEAVIEST OVER THE W HALF BECAUSE THESE AREAS WL BE IMPACTED BY BOTH
SHRTWVS. SINCE SLOWLY BACKING LLVL FLOW WL ATTEMPT TO MAINTAIN FEED
OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR INTO THE E...FCST LOWER POPS/SN AMOUNTS IN THAT
AREA. IN FACT...THE FAR E MAY SEE LITTLE SN THRU TNGT. ONE CONCERN
FOR HEAVIER SN WL BE OVER THE SCENTRAL LATER THIS AFTN/EVNG DOWWIND
OF LK MI IN THE LLVL SLY FLOW AND WHEN DEEPER MSTR/FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH 2ND SHRTWV WL ARRIVE IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS /-
10 TO -12C/ SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT.
HOWEVER...FAIRLY SHARP DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH BACKING LLVL SE FLOW
TURNING TO THE SSW AT H85 AND MAINTAINING A FEED OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR
MAY OFFSET THIS POTENTIAL. BUT OPTED TO MAINTAIN SOME HIER
CATEGORICAL POPS/QPF CENTERED NEAR ESCANABA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL LK ENHANCEMENT.
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT
OVER THE E...CLOSER TO SLOWLY RETREATING HI PRES/CORE OF COLDER AIR
AND WHERE H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE NO HIER THAN -12 TO -13C.
LINGERING CLDS THRU TNGT WL GREATLY LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
COLDEST TEMPS AOB 10F WL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE E.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
WITH THE 500MB LOW AND THE AXIS OF THE 500MB TROUGH SHIFTED OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES TUESDAY...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE W HALF OF
THE NATION WILL BE ABLE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SFC...A RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY /EXTENDING FROM MN UP THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND/...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE A DRY PERIOD AT LEAST UNTIL MID DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING/STUCK BELOW THE 850-900MB
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TRICKY CLOUD COVER FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY IN A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. 850MB TEMPS ON S FLOW WILL RISE TO -1 TO
-4C THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE NW.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL EDGE E ACROSS IL AND IN THURSDAY
MORNING...AND OFF TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
SUPPRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-5IN OF SNOW WITH SLR VALUES AROUND 15:1. EXPECT
THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR SNOW TO BEGIN S CENTRAL. WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS QUICK WITH THE INVADING PRECIP AS THE 00Z NAM...BUT
A BLENDED SOLUTION SOUNDS REASONABLE. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 2-5IN CAN FALL IN A 12HR PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK
INTO THIS FOR POSSIBLE POSTING OF HEADLINES ON TUESDAY...AND
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN THE HWO.
N FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SFC TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
START OF OUR COOL DOWN...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8 TO -10C.
WHILE NOT QUITE OPTIMAL FOR LAKE EFFECT YET...SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE UPSLOPE N SNOWBELTS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/PENNSYLVANIA
FRIDAY EVENING.
DESPITE SFC-500MB RIDGING ON FRIDAY...A FEW LINGERING LES WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AS THE MOISTURE IS AGAIN TRAPPED BELOW 850MB.
BUT WILL THE MOISTURE LAYER IN THE DGZ /850MB TEMPS OF -15 TO
-17C/...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL PUSH IN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEARING FROM THE N PLAINS STATES.
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING
ISSUES ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 6HRS...WHICH IS PRETTY MINOR THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST...AND A BLENDED SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. 850MB
TEMPS OF -20 TO -30C WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
EXITS AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LOOK FOR FINE LES THAT WILL BE GOOD AT REDUCING VIS...ESPECIALLY IF
THE STRONGER NW WINDS OF THE 25/12Z ECMWF ARE CORRECT/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
IN THE WAKE OF STEADIER SNOW THAT AFFECTED KIWD THIS MORNING...
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTN. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SSE WILL BRING A ROUND OF -SN TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. WHILE KIWD SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AS THE -SN
PASSES...STEADIER SNOW AT KCMX/KSAW WILL LIKELY DROP CONDITIONS
FROM VFR TO IFR. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR AT KIWD BY LATE EVENING. IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THRU TUE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015
EXPECT S WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HI PRES DEPARTING TO
THE E AND A LO PRES MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE LO
WEAKENS AND SLIDES TO THE S. THEN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20
KTS WILL PREVAIL THRU WED AS A HI PRES RIDGE AND RATHER SLACK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATES THE AREA. LOOK FOR STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
TO RETURN ON THU AS A LO PRES MOVES E THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF HI PRES BUILDING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA...TIGHTENING THE
PRES GRADIENT AGAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND
WAVES BUILT UP BY THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF
FREEZING SPRAY TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THE CLOSER APPROACH
OF THE HI ON FRI WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015
A SURFACE LOW ANALYZED BY THE RAP NEAR DULUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STALLED WARM FRONT THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN WI...JUST EAST OF THE MN
BORDER. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE FRONT HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE
40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
THIS CAUSES SOME CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS GO NEARLY CALM. THE
TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR WEST THE CLOUD COVER WILL
EXTEND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE SATURATED AT 925MB BUT CAN
EASILY IMPACTED BY SURFACE MOISTURE. AN INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
AFTER DARK AND COULD LOCK ANY LOW CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN MN.
IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...EAST OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY IN THE MID 20S WITH -FZDZ AND -SN BEING REPORTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. VERY LIGHT AND SCATTER PRECIP WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...COOLED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TOMORROW ACROSS THE EAST GIVEN
LINGERING CLOUD COVER...AND THE FACT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE DONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015
A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXIST IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WHILE THE COOLDOWN REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATERVAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS SANDWHICHED BETWEEN THE NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...AND MORE NOTABLY THE NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THE POWERFUL NOREASTER OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
AREA. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES BRINGING
REPEATED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP.
THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
NOTE...WEDNEDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON CLOUD
COVER...SO DID NOT WARM TEMPS SINCE MID/LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM WARMING OUT OF CONTROL DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
TIMING OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION LIMITING TEMPS TO NEAR 30 ON THURSDAY...AND 20S ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
STRENGTH AND TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE GFS IS FASTER AND STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF/GEM...BUT NEITHER SOLUTION PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE ALL SNOW...ACROSS THE REGION. COLD AIR WILL
FUNNEL IN FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND TO ECHO THE THOUGHTS
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...IT APPEARS MONDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED N-S HAS REACHED THE MN/WI
BORDER...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WEST OF IT...AND
COLD TEMPS/-SN/-FZDZ EAST AND NORTH OF IT UNDER LOW STRATUS.
EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY SO LITTLE MOVEMENT IN
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WESTERN MN
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND EXPECT VFR FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
MUCH MORE COMPLICATED SCENARIO IN EASTERN MN...NEAR THE BOUNDARY
ITSELF. 925 RH FIELDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO
GET STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION TONIGHT...AS THE CLOUD COVER IN
NORTHERN MN ADVECTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
STILL...NOT CONFIDENT IN THESE HIGH RH LEVELS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ACTUALLY TRANSLATING TO LOW CIGS. SIGNIFICANT DRYING JUST ABOVE
THIS LEVEL /AND THE INVERSION/ MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LEANED TO THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AND
SCATTERED OUT THE LOW CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...BUT BE AWARE THERE
IS POTENTIAL THE LOW CIGS COULD STICK AROUND ALL NIGHT.
KMSP...VFR INITIALLY AS WE LINGER NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THINKING WE`LL RIDE THE EDGE FOR MUCH OF
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WENT SCT AFTER 07Z...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE EVALUATING CIG
POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ015-
016-025>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
905 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH RAIN MOVING INTO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND THE MOJAVE DESERT BY THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND LIFT INTO THE GREAT
BASIN TUESDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...RADAR DETECTING NARROW LINE OF LIGHT RAIN RUNNING FROM
NEAR TWENTYNINE PALMS CA SOUTHEAST TOWARD YUMA AZ. BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH JETSTREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. SEE A REPORT
OF NEARLY TWO TENTH OF AN INCH FROM A STATION NORTH OF YUMA,
OTHERWISE RAIN AMOUNTS RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH DOWN
TO A TRACE. 12Z NAM/GFS PLUS THE 15Z HRRR SHIFT THIS BAND NORTHWEST
ACROSS WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
BANDS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY. UPDATED EARLIER TO INCREASE POPS FOR SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE AREA AROUND LAKE HAVASU CITY THIS
AFTERNOON.
A FEW 12Z MODELS NOW SUGGESTING RAIN BAND WILL BE MORE BROKEN AS IT
LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT. THIS EVENT NOW LOOKING
MORE OF A HIGH POP, LOW QPF EVENT FOR THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. WILL
ADDRESS AND POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD WRAPPING AROUND THE BAJA LOW IS NOW
BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INVADE OUR SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR THE MOST PART
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME TENDENCY NOTED FOR THE
MODELS TO TAKE THE HEAVIEST QPF UP THROUGH SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND
INTO INYO COUNTY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER EAST. REGARDLESS...I
STILL ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA.
AS FOR THE DETAILS...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ROUGHLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BY NOON. THIS PRECIP BAND WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. BY
NIGHTFALL THE PRECIP BAND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD INTO INYO
COUNTY AS WELL ACROSS CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES BEFORE LIFTING INTO
OUR SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ZONES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS TAKING THE
BEST QPF INTO INYO COUNTY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER EAST. IN
FACT...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF INYO COUNTY OUTSIDE OF THE LOWEST
VALLEYS STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO PICK UP A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION...AND EVEN MORE ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. FURTHER
EAST ACROSS CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTY...I STILL ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD
RAIN BUT AMOUNTS MAY STRUGGLE TO EXCEED A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE
LOWEST DESERT VALLEYS. HOWEVER...PLAYING DEVILS ADVOCATE...WITH
SUCH A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS MOVING IN...IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO
SQUEEZE OUT MORE PRECIP THAN INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. WITH ALL
THIS IN MIND...IVE STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE FORECAST AND
MAINTAINED SIMILAR QPF VALUES ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS METRO AS WHAT WAS
INHERITED...WITH VALUES BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
EXPECTED.
FINALLY...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RATHER HIGH FOR LATE JANUARY WITH THIS
STORM THANKS TO THE SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN OF THE MOISTURE. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 7500 FEET PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND AND ALSO THE HIGHEST REACHES OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES...DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR NOW. THE DAY SHIFT CAN
REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANY ADVISORIES. ANY SNOW OF CONSEQUENCE WITH
REGARDS TO IMPACTS WOULD BE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET SUCH AS
THOSE LEADING TO LEE CANYON OR OVER THE SIERRA CREST.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL SLIDE INTO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...REINTRODUCING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. CURRENTLY THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS NEXT IMPULSE IS THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODEL RUNS...WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE EUROPEAN AND NAM. HOWEVER LOOKING AT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...EACH MODEL HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF SPEEDING UP THIS NEXT
IMPULSE TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THIS TREND
WOULD SUPPORT LESS POPS WEST OF THE COLORADO RIVER AND WOULD FAVOR
FAR EASTERN NEVADA AND ARIZONA FOR THE HIGHEST POPS. DID SLIGHTLY
INCREASE POPS IN THESE AREAS FOR THESE REASONS AND THE FACT THAT
SUFFICIENT UPPER DIFLUENCE CONTINUES TO LOOK MOST LIKELY THERE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS LOW WRAPPING UP AND MOVING SOUTHWARD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRYING TREND
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE
WARM NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS HIGH FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WITH LEVELS AT OR AROUND 7000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND OCCURS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
RAIN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT AFTER 6Z. BIGGEST
CONCERNS WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND LOW CIGS. CIGS FALLING
BELOW 5K EXPECTED AFTER 6Z AND POSSIBLY FALLING BELOW 3K AT TIMES
DURING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO
REMAIN LIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF A KDAG-KEED-KIGM
LINE AND LIFTING NORTH IN THE EVENING. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND
LOW CIGS EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW
IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PULLIN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1231 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
CONGEAL INTO A POWERFUL NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...AS EXPECTED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE SUNNY SKIES ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP HERE AS EARLY AS 19Z/2 PM EST.
OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 930 AM FOLLOWS...
COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. UNTIL THEN...VERY CHILLY CONDITIONS
AT 500 MB (TEMPS AS COLD AS -26C ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA) WILL
CONTINUE...PRODUCING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT OR JUST STEEPER
THAN THE MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND SPREADING EASTWARD INTO SE NORTH
CAROLINA. AS SUNSHINE HEATS TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S WE
EXPECT A HEALTHY CUMULUS CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
EMBEDDED TOWERING CUMULUS AND SHOWERY CB`S AS WELL. THIS BEST
POTENTIAL INITIALLY SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE NC SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT...ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD CAPE FEAR THIS EVENING. NOT
EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN.
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING INCLUDE BUMPING HIGHS UP TO
NEAR 60 NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER...DELAYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS...DELAYING THE ONSET OF CLEARING/
DRYING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS MOST OF THE LATEST MODEL DATA
INDICATES SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BLOCKBUSTER STORM CLOBBERING NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY AND AS AS USUAL WHEN THIS IS THE CASE COLD AIR WILL READILY
INVADE MOST AREAS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. A SMALL LAYER OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS OUT THE DAY BUT WITH A GREAT DEPTH OF THE
COLUMN A DRY NWRLY FLOW THIS SHOULD MIX OUT FOR NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE. EVEN SO, THE CAA WILL CAP HIGHS IN THE MID 40S, SOME 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. OFT TIMES WITH SUCH A LARGE AND STRENGTHENING
STORM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IT IS OFTEN RATHER BLUSTERY LOCALLY
BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFERING THIS TIME AROUND. WE
SEEM TO FIND OURSELVES IN A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD BETWEEN THE JET ASSOC WITH THE ACTUAL STORM CENTER AND THE
MAIN AXIS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST OF THE LOW LVL THERMAL TROUGH
OVER THE GULF STATES. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT
TO PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO IN AN AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH TO
BRING LOWS CLOSE TO 20 WE SHOULD INSTEAD REMAIN IN THE UPPER
20S...PERHAPS LOW 30S FAR SRN ZONES. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WELL OFFSHORE
BY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST SURFACE PRESSURES BUILDS
RIGHT OVERHEAD. SO WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MIXING
(2200FT?) WILL BRING CHILLY HIGHS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THOSE OBSERVED
TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MUCH MORE TYPICAL OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER POSSIBLY AS DEEP AS
9KFT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE NIGHT BEFORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD EARLY THURSDAY AND
JUST OFFSHORE IN A WEAKENING STATE LATER IN THE DAY. ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW NORMAL QUITE DRY BUT SOME PVA INDUCED BY THE WESTERLIES
REACTING WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN THE SW WINDS TO BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. MEANWHILE AFTERNOON TEMPS REBOUND CLOSE TO
CLIMO. WILL THIS MOISTURE BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SOME PRECIPITATION
AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING? HARD TO SAY THIS FAR OUT BUT GIVEN THE FAIRLY
ROBUST STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH THE SLIGHT CHANCE INHERITED POPS LOOK
FINE. EITHER WAY IT WILL STAY MILD ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY PTYPE
CONCERNS. THE WEEKEND WILL BASICALLY JUST FEATURE COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY VORTEX. THERE MAY AT SOME
TIME BE ENOUGH OF A SPOKE OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS FLOW TO YIELD ASCENT
AND EVEN OFFSHORE PRESSURE FALLS. ANY SUCH DISTURBANCE IS FAR BEYOND
BEING SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR NETWORK AND SO SOLUTIONS MAY SHOW HIGH
VARIABILITY FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS MOST PRUDENT TO
FOCUS ON THE CHILLY TEMPS AND ADDRESS ANY CLOUD COVER AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES AT A FUTURE TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GIVE WAY TO PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SFC HEATING
WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
BY 20-21Z...MOST LIKELY OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER. THEREFORE...WILL
MAINTAIN VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS AND INTRODUCE TEMPO -SHRA AT KLBT AND
KILM THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF AVIATION
IMPACTS OTHER THAN MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS TEMPO MVFR VSBYS. W-NW
WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
KILM AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE NOR`EASTER. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AND LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...BUOYS REPORT LITTLE CHANGE IN SEA HEIGHT
SINCE THE 930 AM UPDATE THIS MORNING. WEST WINDS HAVE ACTUALLY
DECREASED IN SPEED A LITTLE BIT...POSSIBLY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING
EFFECTS INLAND. AS CLOUDS INCREASE INLAND WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING
LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS TO SURGE UP TOWARD 20-25 KT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 930 AM FOLLOWS...
BASED ON BUOY WAVE OBSERVATIONS OF 5.5 FEET FROM THE WILMINGTON
"HARBOR" BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE
FEAR RIVER...I HAVE STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY (NOW) FOR
ALL ZONES AS IT IS LIKELY 6 FOOT SEAS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS
AREAS WITH A LONG FETCH TO WESTERLY WINDS. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT ITS ENERGY OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS NEW LOW WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT FEATURE FOR EAST COAST WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW ON TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE BOMB OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BRINGS CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE ENTIRE EAST COAST. DUE TO THE DISTANCE OF THIS STORM AND THE
FACT THAT ITS BACKSWELL DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY REFRACT AROUND CAPE
HATTERAS TOWARDS OUR REGION IT SEEMS THAT WE MAY NOT SEE ANY
ADVISORIES SAVE FOR PERHAPS THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD.
THEREAFTER DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED AS THE GRADIENT EASES.
NOT TOO FAR OFFSHORE HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD AGITATED
WIND FIELD AND MARINERS VENTURING OUT PAST OUR 20NM ZONES ARE URGED
TO CHECK WITH THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FROM OPC. A FURTHER
ABATING OF THE WIND FIELD IS SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL ALSO BE VEERING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...TAKING UP RESIDENCE ALONG THE COASTLINE BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE CELL MOVES OFF THE COAST. BY EVENING THIS
WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VEERING DIRECTION WHICH PAIRED WITH
THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS COULD LEAD TO SOME MARGINAL 6 FT SEAS OVER
MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH WIND
AND SEAS BOTH SHOWING A DOWNWARD/IMPROVING TREND.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
556 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT AS A STRONG COASTAL STORM TRACKS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. THE COASTAL STORM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
600 PM UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE ADVY FOR THOSE MIDDLE SUSQ COUNTIES THRU 11 PM...AS
SNOW IS STILL FALLING AND IS NOT TAPERING OFF AS QUICKLY AS 4KM
NAM/RAP/HRRR HAD PORTRAYED. MDLS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS IS
THE FIRST AREA OF THE CWA WHICH WILL HAVE THE SNOW DROP TO
NOTHING. SNOW HAS RE-ENTERED/DEVELOPED OVER THE SE AND CURRENT
NUMBERS STILL LOOK GOOD OVER THE WHOLE REGION.
PREV...
ADDED TIOGA CO TO THE ADVY AS SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THERE
FOR ANOTHER FEW HRS AND THEY ARE ALREADY PUSHING 3-5 INCHES OF
SNOW OFF THEIR CARS. HOWEVER...THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH SLIDE THE BIG
BAND OFF TO THE WEST /NOT EAST/ SLIGHTLY - SO LESSER CHANCE FOR
SULLIVAN CO PA TO GET TOO MUCH MORE. JUST UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY TO
JUST BELOW 101 PERCENT IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
PREV...
DEFORMATION BETWEEN THE INVERTED SFC TROF OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PA AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF OF
SOUTHEAST VA IS MAINTAINING CATEGORICAL POPS/SNOW ACROSS THE
LAURELS AND CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
PRESENTLY. MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME LIGHT
ACTIVITY BUT IT IS STILL REMOVED FROM THE BETTER DEFORMATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROF TO THE WEST AND THE INTENSIFYING
LOW TO THE EAST. LOWERED THE LOWER END OF SNOW FAR RANGES FOR THE
EAST IN WSW...GENERALLY 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED OVERALL BEFORE
ACCUM SNOWFALL EXITS PA BY DAYBREAK TUE MORNING.
OVERALL HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVR
CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW BTWN LOW TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRES OVR NEW
ENGLAND...FORCED LOCALLY BY THE INCREASING AFOREMENTIONED
DEFORMATION. HI RES NAM/HRRR/WRF ARW ALL SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL 1-3
INCHES TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS/ALLEGHENIES. KEEPING HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW BUT SOME MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT DEPENDING UPON WHERE THE DEFORMATION
PROPOGATES. HRRR INDICATES A SOUTHWEST SHIFT TO THE FORCING AFTER
03Z...AS THE PARENT COASTAL CIRCULATION DOMINATES AND TAKES OVER
EFFECTIVELY DISRUPTING AND ELIMINATING THE DEFORMATION FORCING
SNOWFALL OVER CENTRAL PA BY 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DEFORMATION SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE EARLY
TUESDAY...WHILE NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF DEPARTING COASTAL LOW DRAWS
MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL PA. 25 TO 35KT NE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
FELT AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS REALIZED IN WAKE OF STORM JUST
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING...ESP
EASTERN PA WHERE BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 30-35KTS. ENS
MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TUE FROM NR 20F OVR THE N
MTNS...TO ARND 32F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP STORM WILL PULL AWAY FROM PA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS
FROM THE NORTH...TOOK OUT SNOW SHOWERS FOR JST.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY WED MORNING.
MAIN CHANGE WAS WED NIGHT...DID LOWER TEMPS...BASED ON 12Z
MODEL RUNS...AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.
COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...COLDER AIR WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SENT OUT MORE ADJUSTMENTS AT 22Z.
NW TO SE BANDS OF SNOW STILL LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM NEAR BWI.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
REDUCTIONS CONTINUE REGIONWIDE AS INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OVER
CENTRAL PA /AND AS DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF MID
ATLANTIC COAST/. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THIS
INTO TONIGHT WITH VSBYS VARYING FROM 1-4SM AND CIGS OF MVFR- IFR
SETTLING BACK TOWARD A MORE ROBUST IFR DECK. NE WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...AND PICK UP A BIT TO 10-15 MPH IN THE LOWER
SUSQ TONIGHT AS STORM DEEPENS TO THE EAST AND SYNOPTIC FLOW
INCREASES.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH MVFR CIGS IN NW FLOW
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH
WIND WILL BE BREEZY...PRODUCING SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.
THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>026-033>036-045-058-059-064>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ027-028-037-041-046-049>053-056-057-063.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
515 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT AS A STRONG COASTAL STORM TRACKS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. THE COASTAL STORM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ADDED TIOGA CO TO THE ADVY AS SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THERE
FOR ANOTHER FEW HRS AND THEY ARE ALREADY PUSHING 3-5 INCHES OF
SNOW OFF THEIR CARS. HOWEVER...THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH SLIDE THE BIG
BAND OFF TO THE WEST /NOT EAST/ SLIGHTLY - SO LESSER CHANCE FOR
SULLIVAN CO PA TO GET TOO MUCH MORE. JUST UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY TO
JUST BELOW 101 PERCENT IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
PREV...
DEFORMATION BETWEEN THE INVERTED SFC TROF OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PA AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF OF
SOUTHEAST VA IS MAINTAINING CATEGORICAL POPS/SNOW ACROSS THE
LAURELS AND CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
PRESENTLY. MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME LIGHT
ACTIVITY BUT IT IS STILL REMOVED FROM THE BETTER DEFORMATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROF TO THE WEST AND THE INTENSIFYING
LOW TO THE EAST. LOWERED THE LOWER END OF SNOW FAR RANGES FOR THE
EAST IN WSW...GENERALLY 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED OVERALL BEFORE
ACCUM SNOWFALL EXITS PA BY DAYBREAK TUE MORNING.
OVERALL HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVR
CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW BTWN LOW TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRES OVR NEW
ENGLAND...FORCED LOCALLY BY THE INCREASING AFOREMENTIONED
DEFORMATION. HI RES NAM/HRRR/WRF ARW ALL SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL 1-3
INCHES TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS/ALLEGHENIES. KEEPING HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW BUT SOME MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT DEPENDING UPON WHERE THE DEFORMATION
PROPOGATES. HRRR INDICATES A SOUTHWEST SHIFT TO THE FORCING AFTER
03Z...AS THE PARENT COASTAL CIRCULATION DOMINATES AND TAKES OVER
EFFECTIVELY DISRUPTING AND ELIMINATING THE DEFORMATION FORCING
SNOWFALL OVER CENTRAL PA BY 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DEFORMATION SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE EARLY
TUESDAY...WHILE NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF DEPARTING COASTAL LOW DRAWS
MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL PA. 25 TO 35KT NE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
FELT AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS REALIZED IN WAKE OF STORM JUST
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING...ESP
EASTERN PA WHERE BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 30-35KTS. ENS
MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TUE FROM NR 20F OVR THE N
MTNS...TO ARND 32F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP STORM WILL PULL AWAY FROM PA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS
FROM THE NORTH...TOOK OUT SNOW SHOWERS FOR JST.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY WED MORNING.
MAIN CHANGE WAS WED NIGHT...DID LOWER TEMPS...BASED ON 12Z
MODEL RUNS...AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.
COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...COLDER AIR WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SENT OUT MORE ADJUSTMENTS AT 22Z.
NW TO SE BANDS OF SNOW STILL LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM NEAR BWI.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
REDUCTIONS CONTINUE REGIONWIDE AS INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OVER
CENTRAL PA /AND AS DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF MID
ATLANTIC COAST/. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THIS
INTO TONIGHT WITH VSBYS VARYING FROM 1-4SM AND CIGS OF MVFR- IFR
SETTLING BACK TOWARD A MORE ROBUST IFR DECK. NE WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...AND PICK UP A BIT TO 10-15 MPH IN THE LOWER
SUSQ TONIGHT AS STORM DEEPENS TO THE EAST AND SYNOPTIC FLOW
INCREASES.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH MVFR CIGS IN NW FLOW
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH
WIND WILL BE BREEZY...PRODUCING SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.
THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>026-033>036-045-058-059-064>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ027-
028-037-041-046-049>053-056-057-063.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
433 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT AS A STRONG COASTAL STORM TRACKS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. THE COASTAL STORM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ADDED TIOGA CO TO THE ADVY AS SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THERE
FOR ANOTHER FEW HRS AND THEY ARE ALREADY PUSHING 3-5 INCHES OF
SNOW OFF THEIR CARS. HOWEVER...THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH SLIDE THE BIG
BAND OFF TO THE WEST /NOT EAST/ SLIGHTLY - SO LESSER CHANCE FOR
SULLIVAN CO PA TO GET TOO MUCH MORE. JUST UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY TO
JUST BELOW 101 PERCENT IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
PREV...
DEFORMATION BETWEEN THE INVERTED SFC TROF OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PA AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF OF
SOUTHEAST VA IS MAINTAINING CATEGORICAL POPS/SNOW ACROSS THE
LAURELS AND CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
PRESENTLY. MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME LIGHT
ACTIVITY BUT IT IS STILL REMOVED FROM THE BETTER DEFORMATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROF TO THE WEST AND THE INTENSIFYING
LOW TO THE EAST. LOWERED THE LOWER END OF SNOW FAR RANGES FOR THE
EAST IN WSW...GENERALLY 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED OVERALL BEFORE
ACCUM SNOWFALL EXITS PA BY DAYBREAK TUE MORNING.
OVERALL HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVR
CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW BTWN LOW TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRES OVR NEW
ENGLAND...FORCED LOCALLY BY THE INCREASING AFOREMENTIONED
DEFORMATION. HI RES NAM/HRRR/WRF ARW ALL SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL 1-3
INCHES TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS/ALLEGHENIES. KEEPING HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW BUT SOME MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT DEPENDING UPON WHERE THE DEFORMATION
PROPOGATES. HRRR INDICATES A SOUTHWEST SHIFT TO THE FORCING AFTER
03Z...AS THE PARENT COASTAL CIRCULATION DOMINATES AND TAKES OVER
EFFECTIVELY DISRUPTING AND ELIMINATING THE DEFORMATION FORCING
SNOWFALL OVER CENTRAL PA BY 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DEFORMATION SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE EARLY
TUESDAY...WHILE NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF DEPARTING COASTAL LOW DRAWS
MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL PA. 25 TO 35KT NE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
FELT AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS REALIZED IN WAKE OF STORM JUST
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING...ESP
EASTERN PA WHERE BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 30-35KTS. ENS
MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TUE FROM NR 20F OVR THE N
MTNS...TO ARND 32F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP STORM WILL PULL AWAY FROM PA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS
FROM THE NORTH...TOOK OUT SNOW SHOWERS FOR JST.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY WED MORNING.
MAIN CHANGE WAS WED NIGHT...DID LOWER TEMPS...BASED ON 12Z
MODEL RUNS...AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.
COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...COLDER AIR WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REDUCTIONS CONTINUE REGIONWIDE AS INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OVER
CENTRAL PA /AND AS DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF MID
ATLANTIC COAST/. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THIS
INTO TONIGHT WITH VSBYS VARYING FROM 1-4SM AND CIGS OF MVFR- IFR
SETTLING BACK TOWARD A MORE ROBUST IFR DECK. NE WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...AND PICK UP A BIT TO 10-15 MPH IN THE LOWER
SUSQ TONIGHT AS STORM DEEPENS TO THE EAST AND SYNOPTIC FLOW
INCREASES.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH MVFR CIGS IN NW FLOW
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH
WIND WILL BE BREEZY...PRODUCING SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.
THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>026-033>036-045-058-059-064>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ027-
028-037-041-046-049>053-056-057-063.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
432 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT AS A STRONG COASTAL STORM TRACKS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. THE COASTAL STORM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ADDED TIOGA CO TO THE ADVY AS SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THERE
FOR ANOTHER FEW HRS AND THEY ARE ALREADY PUSHING 3-5 INCHES OF
SNOW OFF THEIR CARS. HOWEVER...THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH SLIDE THE BIG
BAND OFF TO THE EAST SLIGHTLY - SO LESSER CHANCE FOR SULLIVAN CO
PA TO GET TOO MUCH MORE. JUST UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY TO JUST BELOW
101 PERCENT IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
PREV...
DEFORMATION BETWEEN THE INVERTED SFC TROF OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PA AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF OF
SOUTHEAST VA IS MAINTAINING CATEGORICAL POPS/SNOW ACROSS THE
LAURELS AND CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
PRESENTLY. MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME LIGHT
ACTIVITY BUT IT IS STILL REMOVED FROM THE BETTER DEFORMATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROF TO THE WEST AND THE INTENSIFYING
LOW TO THE EAST. LOWERED THE LOWER END OF SNOW FAR RANGES FOR THE
EAST IN WSW...GENERALLY 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED OVERALL BEFORE
ACCUM SNOWFALL EXITS PA BY DAYBREAK TUE MORNING.
OVERALL HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVR
CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW BTWN LOW TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRES OVR NEW
ENGLAND...FORCED LOCALLY BY THE INCREASING AFOREMENTIONED
DEFORMATION. HI RES NAM/HRRR/WRF ARW ALL SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL 1-3
INCHES TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS/ALLEGHENIES. KEEPING HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW BUT SOME MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT DEPENDING UPON WHERE THE DEFORMATION
PROPOGATES. HRRR INDICATES A SOUTHWEST SHIFT TO THE FORCING AFTER
03Z...AS THE PARENT COASTAL CIRCULATION DOMINATES AND TAKES OVER
EFFECTIVELY DISRUPTING AND ELIMINATING THE DEFORMATION FORCING
SNOWFALL OVER CENTRAL PA BY 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DEFORMATION SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE EARLY
TUESDAY...WHILE NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF DEPARTING COASTAL LOW DRAWS
MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL PA. 25 TO 35KT NE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
FELT AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS REALIZED IN WAKE OF STORM JUST
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING...ESP
EASTERN PA WHERE BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 30-35KTS. ENS
MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TUE FROM NR 20F OVR THE N
MTNS...TO ARND 32F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP STORM WILL PULL AWAY FROM PA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS
FROM THE NORTH...TOOK OUT SNOW SHOWERS FOR JST.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY WED MORNING.
MAIN CHANGE WAS WED NIGHT...DID LOWER TEMPS...BASED ON 12Z
MODEL RUNS...AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.
COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...COLDER AIR WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REDUCTIONS CONTINUE REGIONWIDE AS INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OVER
CENTRAL PA /AND AS DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF MID
ATLANTIC COAST/. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THIS
INTO TONIGHT WITH VSBYS VARYING FROM 1-4SM AND CIGS OF MVFR- IFR
SETTLING BACK TOWARD A MORE ROBUST IFR DECK. NE WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...AND PICK UP A BIT TO 10-15 MPH IN THE LOWER
SUSQ TONIGHT AS STORM DEEPENS TO THE EAST AND SYNOPTIC FLOW
INCREASES.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH MVFR CIGS IN NW FLOW
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH
WIND WILL BE BREEZY...PRODUCING SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.
THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>026-033>036-045-058-059-064>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ027-
028-037-041-046-049>053-056-057-063.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
334 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT AS A STRONG COASTAL STORM TRACKS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. THE COASTAL STORM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DEFORMATION BETWEEN THE INVERTED SFC TROF OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PA AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF OF
SOUTHEAST VA IS MAINTAINING CATEGORICAL POPS/SNOW ACROSS THE
LAURELS AND CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
PRESENTLY. MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME LIGHT
ACTIVITY BUT IT IS STILL REMOVED FROM THE BETTER DEFORMATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROF TO THE WEST AND THE INTENSIFYING
LOW TO THE EAST. LOWERED THE LOWER END OF SNOW FAR RANGES FOR THE
EAST IN WSW...GENERALLY 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED OVERALL BEFORE
ACCUM SNOWFALL EXITS PA BY DAYBREAK TUE MORNING.
OVERALL HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVR
CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW BTWN LOW TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRES OVR NEW
ENGLAND...FORCED LOCALLY BY THE INCREASING AFOREMENTIONED
DEFORMATION. HI RES NAM/HRRR/WRF ARW ALL SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL 1-3
INCHES TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS/ALLEGHENIES. KEEPING HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW BUT SOME MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT DEPENDING UPON WHERE THE DEFORMATION
PROPOGATES. HRRR INDICATES A SOUTHWEST SHIFT TO THE FORCING AFTER
03Z...AS THE PARENT COASTAL CIRCULATION DOMINATES AND TAKES OVER
EFFECTIVELY DISRUPTING AND ELIMINATING THE DEFORMATION FORCING
SNOWFALL OVER CENTRAL PA BY 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DEFORMATION SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE EARLY
TUESDAY...WHILE NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF DEPARTING COASTAL LOW DRAWS
MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL PA. 25 TO 35KT NE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
FELT AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS REALIZED IN WAKE OF STORM JUST
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING...ESP
EASTERN PA WHERE BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 30-35KTS. ENS
MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TUE FROM NR 20F OVR THE N
MTNS...TO ARND 32F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP STORM WILL PULL AWAY FROM PA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS
FROM THE NORTH...TOOK OUT SNOW SHOWERS FOR JST.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY WED MORNING.
MAIN CHANGE WAS WED NIGHT...DID LOWER TEMPS...BASED ON 12Z
MODEL RUNS...AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.
COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...COLDER AIR WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REDUCTIONS CONTINUE REGIONWIDE AS INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OVER
CENTRAL PA /AND AS DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF MID
ATLANTIC COAST/. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THIS
INTO TONIGHT WITH VSBYS VARYING FROM 1-4SM AND CIGS OF MVFR- IFR
SETTLING BACK TOWARD A MORE ROBUST IFR DECK. NE WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...AND PICK UP A BIT TO 10-15 MPH IN THE LOWER
SUSQ TONIGHT AS STORM DEEPENS TO THE EAST AND SYNOPTIC FLOW
INCREASES.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH MVFR CIGS IN NW FLOW
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH
WIND WILL BE BREEZY...PRODUCING SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.
THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>026-033>036-045-058-059-064>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ027-
028-041-046-049>053-056-057-063.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
245 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT AS A STRONG COASTAL STORM TRACKS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. THE COASTAL STORM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEFORMATION BETWEEN THE INVERTED SFC TROF OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PA AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF OF
SOUTHEAST VA IS MAINTAINING CATEGORICAL POPS/SNOW ACROSS THE
LAURELS AND CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
PRESENTLY. MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME LIGHT
ACTIVITY BUT IT IS STILL REMOVED FROM THE BETTER DEFORMATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROF TO THE WEST AND THE INTENSIFYING
LOW TO THE EAST. LOWERED THE LOWER END OF SNOW FAR RANGES FOR THE
EAST IN WSW...GENERALLY 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED OVERALL BEFORE
ACCUM SNOWFALL EXITS PA BY DAYBREAK TUE MORNING.
OVERALL HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVR
CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW BTWN LOW TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRES OVR NEW
ENGLAND...FORCED LOCALLY BY THE INCREASING AFOREMENTIONED
DEFORMATION. HI RES NAM/HRRR/WRF ARW ALL SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL 1-3
INCHES TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS/ALLEGHENIES. KEEPING HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW BUT SOME MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT DEPENDING UPON WHERE THE DEFORMATION
PROPOGATES. HRRR INDICATES A SOUTHWEST SHIFT TO THE FORCING AFTER
03Z...AS THE PARENT COASTAL CIRCULATION DOMINATES AND TAKES OVER
EFFECTIVELY DISRUPTING AND ELIMINATING THE DEFORMATION FORCING
SNOWFALL OVER CENTRAL PA BY 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DEFORMATION SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE EARLY
TUESDAY...WHILE NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF DEPARTING COASTAL LOW DRAWS
MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL PA. 25 TO 35KT NE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
FELT AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS REALIZED IN WAKE OF STORM JUST
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING...ESP
EASTERN PA WHERE BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 30-35KTS. ENS
MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TUE FROM NR 20F OVR THE N
MTNS...TO ARND 32F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIR AND CHILLY WED EXPECTED WED...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVR THE
AREA. MED RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES A CHANCE OF SNOW
THURS/THU NIGHT WITH NEXT IN SERIES OF CLIPPERS. BULK OF MED RANGE
GUIDANCE TRACKS THE SFC LOW NORTH OF PA...LIKELY RESULTING IN
MINIMAL ACCUMS ACROSS OUR AREA. ECENS SHOWS A DEEPENING UPPER LVL
TROF OVR THE EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND...OFFERING NO RESPITE
FROM THE COLD WX.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REDUCTIONS CONTINUE REGIONWIDE AS INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OVER
CENTRAL PA /AND AS DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF MID
ATLANTIC COAST/. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THIS
INTO TONIGHT WITH VSBYS VARYING FROM 1-4SM AND CIGS OF MVFR- IFR
SETTLING BACK TOWARD A MORE ROBUST IFR DECK. NE WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...AND PICK UP A BIT TO 10-15 MPH IN THE LOWER
SUSQ TONIGHT AS STORM DEEPENS TO THE EAST AND SYNOPTIC FLOW
INCREASES.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH MVFR CIGS IN NW FLOW
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH
WIND WILL BE BREEZY...PRODUCING SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...GENERALLY VFR EAST. BREEZY N WIND.
WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.
THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>026-033>036-045-058-059-064>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ027-
028-041-046-049>053-056-057-063.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
459 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015
HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF BAD ROADS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...ESPECIALLY
SECONDARY ROADS.
ALSO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A WARM FRONT SITS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHICH APPEARS TO BE STUCK NOW THAT
ITS PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTHWEST WI WILL RIDE DOWN ALONG THIS FRONT...SETTING UP
AN INVERTED TROUGH IN ITS WAKE. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD
PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THIS ZONE BELOW FREEZING...WE SHOULD SEE A CONTINUATION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS IS SHOWN NICELY IN THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS...RAP...26.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN AND 26.18Z NAM.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE MASS OF SNOW MARCHING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHICH SHOULD MARCH DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL WI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY. LUCKILY
IMPACTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS ROADS CONTINUE TO BE
TREATED...THOUGH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW UNTREATED ROADS
TO COOL AND MAKE THINGS WORSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS SURFACE LOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN MN/IA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THIS
FRONT WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WITH REPORTS OF SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON ROADWAYS VIA
WI 511 AND FROM LOCAL ROAD CREW.
LOOK FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW ...WHICH IS PRESENTLY CAUSING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL THEREFORE BE IN A WANING PHASE WITH ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...RAP
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL/SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH HANGS
UP. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO CARRY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION INTO
THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WELL WITH POCKETS OF
FEEDER/SEEDER ICE. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THIS EVENING TO COVER FOR THIS. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
IT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
QUIET WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THOUGH DESPITE
HIGH BUILDING IN DUE TO MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PLAN ON HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN
STRATUS CLOUD...LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
LOWER 40 READINGS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
A WINTRY MIX LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF ICE IN CLOUD FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION...SO LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY FOR SNOW CHANCES.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S...COOLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT KLSE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS DRIZZLE AT THE
SURFACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST THEN
TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT EDGES IN. PLAN ON
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAKENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SSE AS IT APPROACHES FAR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THE LOW...MODEST WARM ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
FGEN ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A BAND OF SNOW...BUT THE BEST RETURNS
APPEAR TO BE EXITING CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST DATA SHOW THAT THE MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
THE BEST WARM ADVECTION PULLS OUT...SO SHOULD SEE ONLY VERY LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES FOR A PERIOD UNTIL BETTER RETURNS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ARRIVE. STILL SEEING OBSERVATIONS AT MARSHFIELD AND
MEDFORD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR UNKNOWN PRECIP...SO NO PLANS TO
CHANGE THE ADVISORY. SOME POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD GET EXTENDED
INTO THE EVENING...BUT NO INDICATIONS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE
THOUGH. SNOWFALL ACCUMS AND IMPACTS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS FAR SW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING AND INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN THAT WILL
PROLONG THE LIGHT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. THE SNOW WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING...BUT
SATURATION WILL REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...SO
LEFT THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIP. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN
WHERE A HALF INCH OR INCH WILL LIKELY FALL. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM
SE WINDS MAY LOCALLY BOOST TOTALS HIGHER OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA
FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT. MOST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LIGHT PRECIP
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST...THOUGH FLURRIES COULD
CONTINUE IN THE EAST DUE TO THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. LOWS MAINLY
BETWEEN 19-24 DEGREES.
TUESDAY...BECAUSE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
CONTINUING...THINK OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING HOURS. AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD INTO
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE THE LOW OVERCAST ERODE
FROM THE WEST AND ALSO THE EAST WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015
A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE BUT THERE IS PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THINK WE WILL
GET 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER DOOR MARINETTE
AND FLORENCE AND FOREST COUNTIES.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. DRY AND COLDER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY SHOULD BE QUITE COLD WITH SUBZERO HIGHS POSSIBLE IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW...DROPPING VSBYS TO MAINLY IFR...LOCALLY
LIFR...WILL SPREAD EAST INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FZDZ MAY IMPACT CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT TIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT HIGHER IMPACTS SHOULD RESIDE WEST OF THIS
AREA. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL MOSTLY FALL INTO THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE SNOW AND SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY BE DIMINISHING
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW CIGS
UPSTREAM...SO THINK SKIES WILL REMAIN IFR/MVFR OVERCAST THROUGH MUCH
OF TUESDAY MORNING.
MPC.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ035.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC