Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/24/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
254 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
THROUGH THIS EVENING GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BORDER AND
FORCING COLDER ACROSS THE STATE ON NORTHERLY BREEZES. DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A LOW WEST OF BAJA
DIRECTS MOISTURE NORTH AND BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT.
CURRENTLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
THE LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ONGOING JUST ALONG THE AZ AND NEW
MEXICO BORDER. IN ADDITION...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ IS RESULTING IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. FOR
TONIGHT...WRF AND HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE RESULTING DOWNSLOPE WINDS
SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO THE WEST OF MOUNTAIN RANGES...THIS
INCLUDES LOCATIONS SUCH AS TUCSON AND SAFFORD.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MOVES INTO A TRANSITIONAL PHASE STARTING
TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NEW MEXICO SWEEPS
TO THE EAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. A
PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER RIDGE DIVES SOUTH
TOWARD ARIZONA TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE EVENTUALLY DIGS
SOUTHWEST...INTENSIFIES...AND BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN PATTERN
JUST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS RESULTS IN AN UPPER
LEVEL REX BLOCK PATTERN WHERE WITH THE INTENSE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE CUT OFF LOW OFF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS AND
WHILE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HEATS UP TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS...THOSE
OF US IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM UP A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. IN ADDITION...MOIST AIR FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BE
TRANSPORTED BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. BY
TUESDAY MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SKYROCKET TO AROUND
1 INCH...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM HIGH...BUT IS ACTUALLY NEAR THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR MID JANUARY.
ONCE THE CUT OFF LOW DISLODGES FROM THE BLOCKING PATTERN ON
MONDAY...IT WILL PUSH NORTH AND BING THE MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF LIFT...TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE
PLACE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM FOR
MID JANUARY GIVEN ITS TIME SPENT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. RIGHT
NOW...WE ARE THINKING SNOW LEVELS MAY FALL TO AROUND 8000 FEET OR
SO. THEIR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ALOFT...AND WARM LOW LEVEL
AIR...TO SUPPORT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. THE CURRENT FORECAST
DOES NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AS I AM NOT CONFIDENT ON EXACTLY
WHERE THUNDER IS MOST LIKELY...BUT THE FAVORED AREA IS PIMA COUNTY
TO THE WEST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR...BUT WE COULD
SEE A FEW TENTHS WITH A ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR ONE HALF INCH.
FOLLOWING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND GIVES WAY TO SHORT TERM RIDGING THROUGH MID
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF EVEN SUGGESTS ANOTHER REX BLOCK PATTERN STARTING NEXT
FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS A TROUGH
THROUGH BY SATURDAY. EITHER WAY...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS FAIRLY
UNSETTLED AT THIS POINT.
JJB
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN AND AROUND THE TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF KDUG AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS MAY OBSCURE
TERRAIN AT TIMES IN AND AROUND THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS. EAST WINDS
WILL IMPACT MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 25 MPH. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LINGERING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN ON THE NEW MEXICO SIDE...WITH AREAS ALONG THE
CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE ON THE ARIZONA SIDE.
BRISK EAST WINDS WILL IMPACT MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRY AND
STABLE WEATHER WILL BUILD BACK IN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
BAJA COAST LIFTS NORTH. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF PIMA
COUNTY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
925 AM PST Thu Jan 22 2015
.Synopsis...
Dry weather with areas of late night/morning valley fog expected
this week. Temperatures expected to remain above to well above
normal through the extended period, peaking over the weekend.
Potential wet weather Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
&&
.Discussion...
Weak upper trough moving through large scale upper ridging along the
west coast is bringing some higher level cloudiness to Interior
NorCal while any associated precip is remaining north of California.
Meanwhile extensive stratus deck developed in the Central Valley
overnight which has limited fog development, except along the
northeast foothills and Motherlode where the deck banks up along the
ground. HRRR showing deck will erode from north to south late
morning into the afternoon as weak synoptic UVM with upper trough
comes into play. High temperatures today expected in the 50s to mid
60s.
Models similar in pumping up upper level ridging over NorCal into
the weekend with 5H heights in the mid 580s DM by Saturday. This
will result in unseasonably warm temperatures, especially in the
Northern Sacramento Valley where guidance is pushing max temps into
the mid 70s for Saturday and Sunday. Forecast highs and record max
temps for Redding and Red Bluff for this weekend are below:
Date Location Forecast Record
1/24 Redding 75 77
1/24 Red Bluff 73 78
1/25 Redding 76 78
1/25 Red Bluff 72 78
Along with well above normal temperatures this weekend, models are
showing some locally breezy north to easterly winds possible, mainly
over the eastern foothills/mountains. This increased low level flow
may help to hinder valley fog development under increased
subsidence.
PCH
&&
.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
The upper level ridge will shift east into the Great Basin on
Monday, though subsidence will continue to bring dry weather that
day. With southerly flow behind the upper level ridge, medium-
range models continue to suggest that subtropical moisture from
west of Mexico will be drawn northward toward the Western US. The
GFS brings this moisture along the Great Basin and the Desert
Southwest, with the best chance of NorCal precipitation confined
to the mountains. The ECMWF and GEM are both a bit farther
westward with the moisture, and would bring a better chance of
precipitation across NorCal. With this being a somewhat unusual
setup for the wintertime, we blended the solutions together to
give a roughly 25-40% chance of rain across the area. Expect the
models to continue to change in timing and strength of this system
over the next several runs.
Model continuity worsens even further beyond Tue-Wed of next week,
and there is little confidence in any particular solution beyond
that point.
Dang
&&
.Aviation...
Areas MVFR/IFR with isold LIFR in ST in Cntrl Vly into this aftn and
agn poss tngt into Fri mrng, otrw mnly VFR for Intr NorCal nxt 24
hrs.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1034 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. THE NEXT STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS PRIOR TO ONSET OF
SNOW. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLAND WILL WETBULB
WHEN PRECIP MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SO HAVE ADDED A TRACE
TO LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE
ISLANDS. SREF GUIDANCE AS WELL AS HRRR AND RAP SHOW HEAVY SNOW AT
ONSET ALLOWING FOR A THUMP OF SNOW. IN FACT CT AND RI MAY SEE
SNOWFALL RATES NEAR ONE INCH AN HOUR AS THE ONSET.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS BEGIN TO SPILL OVER AND BECOME BKN- OVC BY
MIDNIGHT. LEANED SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE MOS TEMPS FOR
THE MINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY...AS
THE OVERNIGHT MINS WILL LIKELY SOMEWHAT DICTATE THE ABILITY TO
WARM /OR NOT/ AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY ALTER CURRENT THINKING IN WHERE THE
RAIN/SNOW/MIX LINES ULTIMATELY LIE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /3 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
*** COASTAL STORM BRINGS MIXED PRECIP...WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING
EARLY TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW EVENING ***
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.
* BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND WEST OF RT
128...MAINLY IN THE WORCESTER HILLS TO SOUTHEAST NH AWAY FROM
THE COAST.
* SOME ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CT...RI AND
SOUTHERN MA.
* STRONG WINDS FOR THE SOUTHEAST MA TOMORROW EVENING.
OVERVIEW AND UNCERTAINTY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES...BOMBING
FROM 980 AND HEADING TOWARD 960 AS IT MOVES NE OF THE BENCHMARK
SAT EVENING. WHILE THE TRACK IS GENERALLY WELL AGREED UPON
/SLIGHTLY INSIDE THE 40/70 MARK/ A RECENT NW SHIFT IN QPF...BUT
COLDER OVERALL PROFILES HAS BEEN NOTED...AND MAY BE LIKELY DUE TO
MODELS BETTER REALIZING THE CONVECTION NEAR THE GULF AND BETTER
RESULTING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. GIVEN THIS...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
LATEST ECMWF FOR THIS UPDATE...GIVEN IT SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE WELL
IN SHOWING THE COLDER NAM AND WARMER GFS...WITH A SLIGHT WEIGHT
TOWARD THE COLDER SOLUTION. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE
THERMAL PROFILES THOUGH...GIVEN THE LACK OF BLOCKING HIGH PRES
WITH COLD AIR TO THE N...AN EVER SO SLIGHT AND LIKELY MESO-SCALE
WAVER IS GOING TO SHIFT THE AXIS OF RAIN/SNOW/MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
SOMEWHAT. SO EVEN THOUGH HAVE TRENDED GRIDS TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SNOW TOTALS GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AND COLDER TREND...WILL STILL
NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY WHERE THE AXIS SETS UP...FOR NOW CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST WHERE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED...FROM NRN CT INTO NE
MA...WITH ADVISORIES TAPERED TO EITHER SIDE.
PRECIPITATION TIMING...
SNOW TO START...WILL OVERSPREAD BETWEEN 3AM IN CT...TO 7 AM AT THE
BORDER WITH NH. THEN...EXPECT A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER FROM THE S
COAST TO A WINTRY MIX...AND EVEN ALL RAIN BETWEEN 7 AM AND NOON.
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY THEN PIVOT AT OR NEAR THE MASS PIKE TO
ROUTE 128...AND BEGIN TO TRANSITION BACK TO ALL SNOW LATE
AFTERNOON...ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE EVENING EVERYWHERE.
STRONGEST WINDS TIMING...
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION TYPE /WINTRY MIX/...
EXPECT SNOWS TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT GIVEN THE COLD
START. THIS WILL OVERSPREAD FROM ABOUT 2-3AM TO ABOUT 7AM FROM S-N
GIVEN THE FASTER TIMING NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER.
THEN...WARMER AIR WILL FORCE A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY
MIX...INCLUDING SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND ALL RAIN FROM S-N FROM
THE S COAST TO ABOUT THE MASS PIKE...TO WHERE THE MASS PIKE AND RT
128 MEET. AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF
ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO THE
PIKE WILL REMAIN IN A WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLY TRANSITION BACK AND
FORTH. FOR THESE AREAS...MAINLY NORTHEASTERN CT...NORTHERN
RI...AND MA AROUND AND S OF THE PIKE...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
COULD YIELD UP TO AN 0.1 INCHES OF ICE ACCRETION.
N OF THE MASS PIKE AND MAINLY OUTSIDE OF W OF 128...HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW...WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON SETTING UP FROM EXTREME NE CT THROUGH THE WORCESTER
HILLS AND INTO SE NH...IN ESSENCE JUST NW OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE.
NOTE THIS MAY SHIFT HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. DO
HOWEVER...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF HEAVY BAND OF ALL
SNOW AS HEIGHTS CRASH AND THE LOW WRAPS UP TOMORROW EVENING...SO
EXPECT A LAST MINUTE TRANSITION TO BRIEF HEAVY SNOW WITH GUSTY
WINDS DURING THE EVENING...EVEN IN THOSE AREAS IN AN ADVISORY OR
WITHOUT A CURRENT HEADLINE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A RAPID CHANGE IN
ROAD CONDITIONS AND LOW VISIBILITY BEFORE IT COMES TO AN END. ALL
IN ALL...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW...AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR
BANDING ARE IN ROUGHLY THE AREA OF THE CURRENT WATCH...SO WILL BE
UPGRADING TO A WARNING...STATING THE CHANCE FOR 6+ AND EVEN
POTENTIALLY 8+ INCHES IN SPOTS. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WHERE THE
HEAVIEST BAND SETS UP...SO EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE HEAVY AND WET.
STAY TUNED TO LATEST UPDATES FOR ANY CHANGES IN SNOW AXES.
STRONG WINDS...
AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND MAKES IT/S CLOSEST PASS TOMORROW
EVENING. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS ESPECIALLY AS THEY SHIFT
FROM THE N PRIMARILY...TO THE NW. AM NOTING A ROBUST N-NE LLJ
EXCEEDING 50 KT SKIRTING THE SE PORTION OF MA. WITHOUT THE HIGH
PRES TO THE N...IT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT THAN NORMAL TO GET THIS
MOMENTUM TO THE GROUND. HOWEVER...BETTER MIXING ALONG THE OUTER
ARM OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THANKS TO MARINE INFLUENCE COULD
ALLOW SOME OF THIS TO MIX...SO WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THERE. THEREFORE...WILL ALSO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY
WITH THIS UPDATE...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOMEWHAT
INLAND...BUT JUST DON/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE WITH THIS UPDATE.
COASTAL FLOODING...
SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD SECTION BELOW.
TOMORROW NIGHT...
AFTER THE BRIEF BURST OF SNOW/WIND EXPECT A BREEZY AND COLD NIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRES ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO DRY AREA ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LEFTOVER PATCHY BLACK ICE
AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S BY DAYBREAK SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY
* MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
* OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND SE MA MON/TUE
* MODERATING TEMPS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
OVERVIEW...
PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC WITH FULL LATITUDE TROF ACROSS EASTERN US WHICH WILL BRING
A SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK...ALBEIT
MAINLY DRY. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE KEEPING MON STORM SUPPRESSED AND
WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER AT LEAST
HALF OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE FURTHER N AND BRING SNOW INTO SNE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE. ODDS FAVOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST BUT STILL NEED
TO WATCH THIS STORM CLOSELY AS IT COULD STILL TREND BACK N. BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A MODERATING TREND TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW.
SUNDAY...
DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE BLUSTERY
WITH GUSTY W/NW WINDS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
MODEL CONSENSUS FAVOR A SUPPRESSED STORM PASSING WELL S OF NEW ENG
MON/MON NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
THAT ARE FURTHER N SO CANT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THIS STORM. THERE
REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THIS STORM COULD HAVE A LARGER IMPACT
ON SNE...BUT ODDS FAVOR A GLANCING BLOW OR A MISS. EVEN IF STORM IS
A MISS...IT APPEARS OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
CAPE/ISLANDS INTO PORTIONS OF SE MA. VERY COLD AIR MOVING IN WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN AND NE FLOW SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS AND COASTAL SE MA.
UNSEASONABLY COLD BOTH DAYS WITH 925 MB TEMPS -12 TO -15C. HIGHS
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S MON AND POSSIBLY A FEW
DEGREES COLDER TUE. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS MON AND TUE...BUT
INCREASING SUNSHINE IN THE WEST TUE. GUSTY N/NE WINDS DEVELOPING
LATE MON INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS STORM INTENSIFIES
TO THE EAST. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS LIKELY MON NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY
MOVING EAST AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LIKELY BRINGING AN END
TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. STILL LOTS OF CLOUDS EXPECTED SE NEW
ENG COAST...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY AND CONTINUED COLD WITH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN N
AND W MA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THU AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE EAST WITH
MILDER SW FLOW DEVELOPING. NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SOMETIME THU NIGHT/FRI AS NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
TIMING OF FRONT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE WHICH WILL AFFECT
PRECIP TIMING AND TEMPS ON FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH EXPECT BUILDING CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH HAVE SOMEWHAT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL EXPECTATION
TOMORROW...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OR WHERE THE
RAIN/SNOW/MIX LINE ENDS UP. EXPECT LOW PRES TO BRING SNOW TO START
EARLY IN THE MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY S AND E OF THE WORCESTER
HILLS...MAINLY SNOW N. SOME AREAS WHERE IT REMAINS ALL SNOW...BUT
CLOSE TO THE MIX LINE MAY SEE 6-8 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE
ITS ALL DONE. LESS ELSEWHERE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS. WINDS SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE E TO THE
N...WITH GUSTS IN THE EVENING OF 20-30 KT. 30-45 KT AT TIMES ON
CAPE COD AND ACK. THEN SHIFTING NW. SOME LLWS LIKELY.
TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW. COULD BE A BURST OF
SNOW AT ALL TAF SITES BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING WITH LOW VSBYS AND
QUICK ACCUMS DURING THE EVENING. AFTER ENDING EXPECT RAPID
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BUT WITH WIND GUSTS 20-30KT OUT OF THE NW.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING OF MIXING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING OF MIXING.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W/NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
CAPE/ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF SE MA WHERE SOME OCEAN SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. LOW PROB MVFR COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD IF STORM WHICH IS
PASSING TO OUT S ENDS UP FURTHER N. GUSTY N/NE WINDS TO 25-35 KT
DEVELOPING SE NEW ENG COAST LATE MON/MON NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING TUE.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SOME LINGERING MVFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/.
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SWELLS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB
HEADLINE CONDITIONS UNTIL PRECIP OVERSPREADS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE SE WATERS AND INTENSIFY
TOMORROW EVENING. THIS WILL MEAN THAT A PERIOD OF STRONG GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FIRST OUT OF THE N-NE...THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NW BY LATE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OVER. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN
AND FOG...POSSIBLY EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW CLOSER TO THE SHORE.
THE GALES BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO ABOUT 15 FT ON
THE OUTER SE WATERS.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NW WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE AT TIMES...BUT SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING EARLY...SUCH THAT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR ALL WATERS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. W/NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT SHOULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING INCREASING
N/NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS LIKELY
DEVELOPING LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO EARLY TUE
ACROSS SE WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR BOSTON HARBOR
THROUGH CAPE COD...AND NANTUCKET FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE
CYCLE TOMORROW...WHICH IN BOSTON IS 11.4 FEET. THE FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THIS STORM NOW SUGGESTS THAT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
/LOW PROBABILITY OF A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE/ IS LIKELY IN THIS
AREA FOR THAT HIGH TIDE. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH CONDITIONS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE AS WELL AS THE STORM MOVES OFFSHORE...BUT
WINDS WILL HAVE A STRONG WESTWARD COMPONENT BY THAT TIME...IT IS
JUST A MATTER AS TO WHETHER THE LEFTOVER SURGE WILL BE ABLE TO
MAKE UP THE DIFFERENCE. NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT CURRENTLY
OUT FOR THE NORTH SHORE AND CAPE ANN...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
SURGE WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...SO IT MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED THERE AS WELL.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
MAZ015-016-019-022-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
007>009-015>018-020-021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MAZ004>006-
010>014-026.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR RIZ002>006.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
712 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES WILL RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR`EASTER AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...TO SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST... NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS HAS DISSIPATED WITH
A CANOPY OF HIGH THIN SCT-BKN CI/CS SOUTH OF I90 EVOLVING. LATEST
3HR ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE DROPS WERE STILL INLAND INTO CENTRAL NC.
THERE WAS DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE AS MEAN UPPER
TROUGH WAS APPROACHING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WESTERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. CONCERN REMAINS THAT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING MAY
AMPLIFY A LITTLE MORE AS 18Z NAM/GFS AND HOURLY RAP WAS JUST TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THIS HAS RESULTED TOO IN HIGHER
QPF VALUES FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE...WE MAY HAVE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.
PREV DISC..
UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPANDED TO EASTERN
COLUMBIA...NORTHERN BERKSHIRE AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR EASTERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY.
AS OF 430 PM EST...SKIES HAVE BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH THE
REGION EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A DEEPENING CYCLONE TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE CAROLINAS.
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT...AS THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE DELMARVA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH SNOW BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290-295K SURFACE
INCREASES.
FORECAST MODELS...INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM HAVE ALL SHIFTED
THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE NORTH AND WEST FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THIS TREND STARTED WITH LAST NIGHT/S 00Z ECMWF RUN...AND HAS
CONTINUED TODAY. A POSSIBLE REASON FOR THE SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHICH IN TURN COULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TRACK CLOSER TO
THE COAST. WE HAVE ADJUSTED WINTER HEADLINES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EXPECTED SHIFT.
THIS STORM WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT DEEPENS CLOSE TO 24 MB
IN 24 HOURS FROM 06Z SATURDAY AROUND 996MB JUST OFF THE DELMARVA TO
06Z SUNDAY AROUND 963MB OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. FRONTOGENESIS ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BANDING...ALTHOUGH AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST OF THE STRONGEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS BANDING IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH ONE INCH PER HOUR AT
TIMES YIELDING STORM TOTALS OF AROUND 5-9 INCHES. THERMAL PROFILES
HAVE TRENDED COLDER AS WELL...SO WILL JUST MENTION SOME SLEET
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD FROM MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
TO THE NORTH AND WEST THERE WILL BE ENOUGH QPF WITHOUT BANDING TO
RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTY. ALSO INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR 1-3 INCHES
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE ADVISORY AREA. AREAS
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF
ANY SNOW. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
AMOUNTS WOULD INCREASE.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES...AS
THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPMENTAL STAGES WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION AND MAY END UP SHIFTING THE TRACK FURTHER.
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL LIKELY SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TACONICS TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THERE WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO FEATURE MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO MAY
ACCUMULATE...AS THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE MOISTURE
THERE.
COLDER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF ALBANY EARLY SUNDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. A
VERY COLD NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILD MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN VERY COLD
AIR. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT POSSIBLY WELL BELOW ZERO OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
MONDAY...
RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THIS WAVE WILL TRACK CLOSER TO THE I70 CORRIDOR THAN THE I80
CORRIDOR. THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST HANDLED THIS VERY WELL
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE POPS/WX. THE 1025MB SURFACE HIGH
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA RATHER DRY WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED. AS H850
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE -10C/-12C...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY NIGHT...
CONSENSUS FAVORS A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN AS SUGGESTED BY
THE ECMWF/GGEM AS THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
THEREFORE SLOWER WITH THE EXIT OF THIS WAVE. PER WPC GUIDANCE...WE
WILL KEEP OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AS SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS EXPECTED INTO THE
TERRAIN AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
AN ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
RESULT A IN PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER AND A SLOW RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF JANUARY. PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
THURSDAY...
STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
EARLIER IN THE WEEK QUICKLY RACES ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND
AMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHER POPS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
THE STORM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH AND IMPACT KPOU-KPSF FIRST WITH A
DROP TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN THIS SNOW
WILL SPREAD INTO KALB AROUND SUNRISE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. FOR
KGFL...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS THIS
LOCATION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST FROM IMPACTS OF THIS
STORM. A PERIOD OF IFR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING FROM KALB-
KPOU-KPSF WHEN THE STRONGEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
AS THIS STORM INTENSIFIES TO OUR EAST...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A TENDENCY TO BECOME
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
10KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ061-064>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR VTZ015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...JPV
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
907 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015
.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE NEAR AL/GA STATE LINE WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...DRAGGING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION LATE.
LARGE RAIN BAND WITH EMBEDDED STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE ORLANDO AREA LATER
THIS EVENING. WITH THIS CONVECTIVE BAND FARTHER AHEAD OF BETTER
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND ALSO WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER LAND. HOWEVER WITH
INCREASING S/SW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS COULD STILL SEE ANY ISO
STORMS OR STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN BAND PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH.
LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS RAIN PERSISTING MAINLY NORTH OF MELBOURNE
PAST MIDNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT PUSH IN FROM I-4 WEST LATE. WILL NOT
DEVIATE MUCH FROM THIS SOLUTION AS IT HAS HAD A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS ACTIVITY SO FAR. SENT OUT AN EARLY UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO
BRING UP TIMING OF RAIN BAND...BUT OTHERWISE POPS/WINDS/TEMPS LOOK
ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SAT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) COLD FRONT WILL BE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN SECTIONS AT SUNRISE THEN IN SOUTH FLORIDA BY AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AND EXPECT A MORE NARROW
BAND OF CONVECTION TO TRAVERSE THE AREA. LOWEST POPS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH (40 PERCENT) AND HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH (60
PERCENT). THIS WOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION WILL
KICK IN ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY AND BY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONSENSUS TEMPS RATHER THAN THE GFS
MOS.
&&
.AVIATION...LARGE BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS LAKE/VOLUSIA WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH TOWARD KMCO/KISM/KTIX LATER THIS EVENING.
3-5 SM VIS WITH PERSISTENT RAINFALL GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH TEMPO
IFR CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL/ISO
STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE BAND. BEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
KMLB THROUGH 06Z WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THEN FARTHER SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT LLWS IN TAFS AS MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW INCREASING S/SW WINDS UP TO 35-40 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC
OVERNIGHT.
MORE PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT TOWARD
DAYBREAK WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. VERY WINDY CONDS WILL BE PRESENT AS FRONT
SHIFTS EAST WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 20-22 KTS AND
GUSTS 28-30KTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTS
NORTHEAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS.
WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES IN PLACE WITH ADVISORY STARTING
NEARSHORE/GALE WARNING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) A GALE WARNING WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 21Z/4PM SAT AFTN OFFSHORE AND NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINING IN PLACE LIKELY EVERYWHERE
ELSE THROUGH THIS TIME...AND RESUMING AFTER 21Z FOR OFFSHORE LEGS.
INITIAL SW WINDS VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
W/WNW BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE SAT WITH SEAS SLOWER TO RESPOND. SEAS
INITIALLY BUILDING TO 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 5-6 FT OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK SUN
MORNING.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60
NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER
BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1002 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
.UPDATE...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE TODAY WILL BE
THE TIMING AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO SHIFT THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON... NOT ANTICIPATING MANY SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. WARM AND MOIST AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO WEST CENTRAL FL AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPS TODAY ARE ON TRACK TO CLIMB A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. ADDITIONALLY HRRR AND MET THIS MORNING ARE
TRYING TO PICK UP ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...FAVORING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO WILL KEEP THE 20
POP THIS AFTERNOON FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BUT HAVE TRIMMED OUT THE
NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHY MORNING FOG CONTINUES TO BURN OFF ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 65 75 63 / 10 10 60 60
FMY 83 65 80 67 / 20 10 10 30
GIF 80 64 78 63 / 10 10 50 40
SRQ 78 65 76 65 / 20 10 50 50
BKV 79 62 77 59 / 10 10 70 70
SPG 76 65 73 63 / 20 10 50 60
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1053 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL PULL
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS TO SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS SHORT TERM TRENDS. WINDS
ARE VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM BEAUFORT UP TO
CHARLESTON. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR NOW.
THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA
PER 24/01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW IS MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND WILL TRAVERSE A PATH JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST OVERNIGHT...PASSING OVER THE FAR INLAND ZONES. MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A
RESULT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING INTO THE 60S UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER ALLENDALE-JENKINS-SCREVEN
COUNTIES WHERE FULL WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS UNLIKELY. HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO MATCH THIS EXPECTATION. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE BEACHES BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKY AS A
RESULT AS ANY DEVIATION ON THE SPEED OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT. GIVEN CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...A 30/30/30 BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...H3R AND RAP LOOKS REASONABLE. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S FAR INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S THE COAST... EXCEPT
LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF CHARLESTON COUNTY.
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS HELPED TO GREATLY DIMINISH
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BY DISRUPTING MOISTURE
ADVECTION NORTHWARD. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS BEFORE STRONG UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST MOVES IN LATE. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A RESURGENCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. HOURLY POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY...BUT MEAN POPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 70-100
PERCENT... PERHAPS A BIT LOWER OVER FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS GENERALLY ENDED. A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...BUT THE OVERALL RISK FOR TSTMS REMAINS QUITE LOW.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHERE WINDS
COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS COULD OCCUR WHERE
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS FALL...BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO RECEIVE A FEW
REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES GIVEN THE WET GROUND CONDITIONS THAT ARE
IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...A BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
STATES AS A STRONG AND NEUTRALLY TILTED SHORT WAVE ALONG THE SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AT DAYBREAK SWEEPS QUICKLY EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC BY 15-18Z. AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A 996 MB
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DELMARVA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE IT STARTS TO BOMB OUT AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE COD IN MASSACHUSETTS BY NIGHTFALL. TRAILING FROM
THE LOW WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO BE INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY 12Z THAT TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WITH IT. BUT UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT WE HAVE HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN GA AND CHANCE/LIKELY POPS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
IN THE MORNING...BEFORE COVERAGE DIMINISHES QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE BY
LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY. LARGE AND STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES
OF AS MUCH AS 2-3MB/3 HOURS THROUGH 18Z WILL COINCIDE WITH THE BEST
COLD ADVECTION. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY COLD ADVECTION WANES...BUT
DEEP MIXING AND A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PERSIST. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT
A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE TO THE CRITERIA FOR A
WIND ADVISORY WHICH OCCURS WHEN WE HAVE 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS FOR
ONE HOUR AND/OR GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR MORE FOR ANY DURATION. CLOUD
COVER WILL ERODE FOR THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON FROM WEST/SW TO
EAST/NE AND ONCE INSOLATION DOES DEVELOP IT WILL SPEND MUCH OF ITS
ENERGY EVAPORATING THE PREVIOUS RAINS. THAT ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION
WILL ACTUALLY PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A ATYPICAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS
TEMPS DROP SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE MORNING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THEN ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT... MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL ONLY HAVE TEMPS IN THE
50S.
LAKE WINDS...ANALYSIS OF SOUNDINGS AND GEOSTROPHIC WINDS INDICATE
THAT WHILE WE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR GREATER
OVER AND NEAR THE SHORELINE OF LAKE MOULTRIE ON SATURDAY...WINDS
WON/T MIX AS MUCH OVER THE BULK OF THE LAKE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
WFO CAE WE HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO HOIST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...WITH STEADY PRESSURE RISES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN A TIGHT GRADIENT...AN ADVISORY MAY YET BE REQUIRED AT A LATER
TIME.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GULF WILL POKE INTO THE
FORECAST ZONES BEHIND THE LARGE AND INTENSE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN
WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM OFF NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL SHUT OFF
CONSIDERABLY AT SUNSET...AND ALTHOUGH MOST LOCALES WON/T GO
COMPLETELY CALM THERE IS ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR
SKIES TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR ALL BUT THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK RIDGING INITIALLY THAT GIVES WAY TO
A SLIGHTLY MORE CYCLONIC FLOW LATE IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL BE ORGANIZING IN RESPONSE TO AN
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE DIGGING SE THROUGH THE OHIO...TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE...DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES
OFF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
HOWEVER HOLDS COASTAL SC COMMUNITIES IN THE MID 50S.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL SWING RAPIDLY
INTO THE SE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC MONDAY. CO-LOCATED
AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA/NORTHERN NC AT NIGHT AND STARTS TO DEEPEN AS IT.
TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTS...ONE THAT PULLS
THROUGH HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE SECOND THAT
APPROACHES BY LATE MONDAY. WITH PWATS LESS THAN 1/2 INCH...LITTLE TO
NO CONVERGENCE NOR INSTABILITY THE RISK FOR ANY SHOWERS IS REMOTE
WITH THE COLD FRONTS. WE CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING GIVEN THE
STRONG IMPULSE ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT WE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF A DRY FORECAST. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FIRST FRONT WILL DROP THE 850 0C ISOTHERM INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. BUT THIS IS NEGATED BY PLENTY OF
INSOLATION MONDAY AND DOWNSLOPE OFF THE MOUNTAINS. THUS TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY BE NEAR OR EVEN A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY...MAINLY IN THE 15-20 MPH AND GUSTY RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...SETTING UP COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A LARGE MID
LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. IN
GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 30S.
TEMPS SHOULD THEN SLOWLY MODIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK AS THE
MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BORDERING LINE IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE AREA. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DESPITE THE GUSTINESS...LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH 2000 FT WINDS 45-50 KT. COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS 12-13Z WITH WINDS TURNING WEST IN ITS
WAKE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MID-LATE MORNING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO BOTH
TERMINALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WE WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WEST-NW WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WINDS DROP OFF BY SUNSET. GUSTY NW WINDS TO
OCCUR AGAIN MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND 41008 SUGGESTING GALES ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND LIKELY IN THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS. GALE WARNINGS LOOK WELL PLACED...AND STILL THINK
CONDITIONS OVER THE REMAINING LEGS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 9-12 FT OFFSHORE WITH 7-10 FT
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND 5-8 FT ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY...DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE ONGOING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE DELMARVA. STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES INTO THE
AFTERNOON WILL COINCIDE WITH THE BEST COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL
EASILY SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WEST/NW WINDS OF 20-30
KT ACROSS THE 0-20 NM WATERS AND CHARLESTON HARBOR. ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS WE HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING UNTIL 18Z...BUT
ONCE THAT COMES DOWN WE/LL NEED TO TRANSITION OVER TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS ENOUGH IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS/SEAS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
SOME...ALLOWING FOR ALL ADVISORIES TO COME DOWN EXCEPT FOR AMZ374
WHERE WINDS ARE STILL AS HIGH AS 25 KT AND SEAS OF 6 OR 7 FT.
SUNDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS...ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW
PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. WEST AND SW WINDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 15
OR MAYBE 20 KT AND SEAS 5 FT OR LESS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANY IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
HAVE ONLY BEEN TEMPORARY AS A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN AROUND THE LOW
TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PULLS OFF TO THE EAST/NE MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL AGAIN RISE AND ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
SEEM LIKELY.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOR THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE
BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT UNCONTROLLED RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA TO STEADILY RISE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE OHOOPEE RIVER AT REIDSVILLE LIKELY TO
GO INTO FLOOD ON SATURDAY. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE
FOR THAT POINT. THE OGEECHEE RIVER AT MIDVILLE AND EDEN AS WELL AS
THE CANOOCHEE RIVER AT CLAXTON COULD ALSO MAKE A RUN FOR FLOOD
STAGE. VARIOUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDE TRENDS AT 9 PM SUGGEST LEVELS WILL REACH 7.0-7.2 FT MLLW IN
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...
EXCEPT TIDAL BERKELEY. LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR FORT PULASKI AND THE UPPER GEORGIA COAST.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ330-352-
354.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
911 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST...
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL PULL
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS TO SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA
PER 24/01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW IS MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND WILL TRAVERSE A PATH JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST OVERNIGHT...PASSING OVER THE FAR INLAND ZONES. MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A
RESULT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING INTO THE 60S UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER ALLENDALE-JENKINS-SCREVEN
COUNTIES WHERE FULL WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS UNLIKELY. HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO MATCH THIS EXPECTATION. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE BEACHES BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKY AS A
RESULT AS ANY DEVIATION ON THE SPEED OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT. GIVEN CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...A 30/30/30 BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...H3R AND RAP LOOKS REASONABLE. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S FAR INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S THE COAST... EXCEPT
LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF CHARLESTON COUNTY.
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS HELPED TO GREATLY DIMINISH
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BY DISRUPTING MOISTURE
ADVECTION NORTHWARD. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS BEFORE STRONG UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST MOVES IN LATE. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A RESURGENCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. HOURLY POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY...BUT MEAN POPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 70-100
PERCENT... PERHAPS A BIT LOWER OVER FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS GENERALLY ENDED. A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...BUT THE OVERALL RISK FOR TSTMS REMAINS QUITE LOW.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHERE WINDS
COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS COULD OCCUR WHERE
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS FALL...BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO RECEIVE A FEW
REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES GIVEN THE WET GROUND CONDITIONS THAT ARE
IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...A BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
STATES AS A STRONG AND NEUTRALLY TILTED SHORT WAVE ALONG THE SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AT DAYBREAK SWEEPS QUICKLY EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC BY 15-18Z. AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A 996 MB
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DELMARVA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE IT STARTS TO BOMB OUT AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE COD IN MASSACHUSETTS BY NIGHTFALL. TRAILING FROM
THE LOW WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO BE INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY 12Z THAT TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WITH IT. BUT UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT WE HAVE HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN GA AND CHANCE/LIKELY POPS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
IN THE MORNING...BEFORE COVERAGE DIMINISHES QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE BY
LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY. LARGE AND STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES
OF AS MUCH AS 2-3MB/3 HOURS THROUGH 18Z WILL COINCIDE WITH THE BEST
COLD ADVECTION. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY COLD ADVECTION WANES...BUT
DEEP MIXING AND A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PERSIST. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT
A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE TO THE CRITERIA FOR A
WIND ADVISORY WHICH OCCURS WHEN WE HAVE 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS FOR
ONE HOUR AND/OR GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR MORE FOR ANY DURATION. CLOUD
COVER WILL ERODE FOR THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON FROM WEST/SW TO
EAST/NE AND ONCE INSOLATION DOES DEVELOP IT WILL SPEND MUCH OF ITS
ENERGY EVAPORATING THE PREVIOUS RAINS. THAT ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION
WILL ACTUALLY PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A ATYPICAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS
TEMPS DROP SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE MORNING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THEN ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT... MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL ONLY HAVE TEMPS IN THE
50S.
LAKE WINDS...ANALYSIS OF SOUNDINGS AND GEOSTROPHIC WINDS INDICATE
THAT WHILE WE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR GREATER
OVER AND NEAR THE SHORELINE OF LAKE MOULTRIE ON SATURDAY...WINDS
WON/T MIX AS MUCH OVER THE BULK OF THE LAKE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
WFO CAE WE HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO HOIST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...WITH STEADY PRESSURE RISES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN A TIGHT GRADIENT...AN ADVISORY MAY YET BE REQUIRED AT A LATER
TIME.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GULF WILL POKE INTO THE
FORECAST ZONES BEHIND THE LARGE AND INTENSE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN
WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM OFF NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL SHUT OFF
CONSIDERABLY AT SUNSET...AND ALTHOUGH MOST LOCALES WON/T GO
COMPLETELY CALM THERE IS ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR
SKIES TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR ALL BUT THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK RIDGING INITIALLY THAT GIVES WAY TO
A SLIGHTLY MORE CYCLONIC FLOW LATE IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL BE ORGANIZING IN RESPONSE TO AN
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE DIGGING SE THROUGH THE OHIO...TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE...DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES
OFF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
HOWEVER HOLDS COASTAL SC COMMUNITIES IN THE MID 50S.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL SWING RAPIDLY
INTO THE SE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC MONDAY. CO-LOCATED
AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA/NORTHERN NC AT NIGHT AND STARTS TO DEEPEN AS IT.
TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTS...ONE THAT PULLS
THROUGH HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE SECOND THAT
APPROACHES BY LATE MONDAY. WITH PWATS LESS THAN 1/2 INCH...LITTLE TO
NO CONVERGENCE NOR INSTABILITY THE RISK FOR ANY SHOWERS IS REMOTE
WITH THE COLD FRONTS. WE CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING GIVEN THE
STRONG IMPULSE ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT WE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF A DRY FORECAST. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FIRST FRONT WILL DROP THE 850 0C ISOTHERM INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. BUT THIS IS NEGATED BY PLENTY OF
INSOLATION MONDAY AND DOWNSLOPE OFF THE MOUNTAINS. THUS TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY BE NEAR OR EVEN A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY...MAINLY IN THE 15-20 MPH AND GUSTY RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...SETTING UP COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A LARGE MID
LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. IN
GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 30S.
TEMPS SHOULD THEN SLOWLY MODIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK AS THE
MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BORDERING LINE IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE AREA. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DESPITE THE GUSTINESS...LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH 2000 FT WINDS 45-50 KT. COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS 12-13Z WITH WINDS TURNING WEST IN ITS
WAKE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MID-LATE MORNING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO BOTH
TERMINALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WE WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WEST-NW WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WINDS DROP OFF BY SUNSET. GUSTY NW WINDS TO
OCCUR AGAIN MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND 41008 SUGGESTING GALES ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND LIKELY IN THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS. GALE WARNINGS LOOK WELL PLACED...AND STILL THINK
CONDITIONS OVER THE REMAINING LEGS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 9-12 FT OFFSHORE WITH 7-10 FT
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND 5-8 FT ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY...DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE ONGOING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE DELMARVA. STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES INTO THE
AFTERNOON WILL COINCIDE WITH THE BEST COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL
EASILY SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WEST/NW WINDS OF 20-30
KT ACROSS THE 0-20 NM WATERS AND CHARLESTON HARBOR. ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS WE HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING UNTIL 18Z...BUT
ONCE THAT COMES DOWN WE/LL NEED TO TRANSITION OVER TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS ENOUGH IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS/SEAS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
SOME...ALLOWING FOR ALL ADVISORIES TO COME DOWN EXCEPT FOR AMZ374
WHERE WINDS ARE STILL AS HIGH AS 25 KT AND SEAS OF 6 OR 7 FT.
SUNDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS...ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW
PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. WEST AND SW WINDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 15
OR MAYBE 20 KT AND SEAS 5 FT OR LESS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANY IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
HAVE ONLY BEEN TEMPORARY AS A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN AROUND THE LOW
TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PULLS OFF TO THE EAST/NE MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL AGAIN RISE AND ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
SEEM LIKELY.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOR THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE
BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT UNCONTROLLED RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA TO STEADILY RISE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE OHOOPEE RIVER AT REIDSVILLE LIKELY TO
GO INTO FLOOD ON SATURDAY. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE
FOR THAT POINT. THE OGEECHEE RIVER AT MIDVILLE AND EDEN AS WELL AS
THE CANOOCHEE RIVER AT CLAXTON COULD ALSO MAKE A RUN FOR FLOOD
STAGE. VARIOUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDE TRENDS AT 9 PM SUGGEST LEVELS WILL REACH 7.0-7.2 FT MLLW IN
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...
EXCEPT TIDAL BERKELEY. LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR FORT PULASKI AND THE UPPER GEORGIA COAST.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ330-352-
354.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
835 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL PULL
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS TO SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA
PER 24/01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW IS MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND WILL TRAVERSE A PATH JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST OVERNIGHT...PASSING OVER THE FAR INLAND ZONES. MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A
RESULT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING INTO THE 60S UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER ALLENDALE-JENKINS-SCREVEN
COUNTIES WHERE FULL WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS UNLIKELY. HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO MATCH THIS EXPECTATION. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE BEACHES BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKY AS A
RESULT AS ANY DEVIATION ON THE SPEED OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT. GIVEN CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...A 30/30/30 BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...H3R AND RAP LOOKS REASONABLE. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S FAR INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S THE COAST... EXCEPT
LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF CHARLESTON COUNTY.
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS HELPED TO GREATLY DIMINISH
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BY DISRUPTING MOISTURE
ADVECTION NORTHWARD. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS BEFORE STRONG UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST MOVES IN LATE. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A RESURGENCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. HOURLY POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY...BUT MEAN POPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 70-100
PERCENT... PERHAPS A BIT LOWER OVER FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS GENERALLY ENDED. A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...BUT THE OVERALL RISK FOR TSTMS REMAINS QUITE LOW.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHERE WINDS
COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS COULD OCCUR WHERE
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS FALL...BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO RECEIVE A FEW
REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES GIVEN THE WET GROUND CONDITIONS THAT ARE
IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...A BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
STATES AS A STRONG AND NEUTRALLY TILTED SHORT WAVE ALONG THE SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AT DAYBREAK SWEEPS QUICKLY EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC BY 15-18Z. AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A 996 MB
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DELMARVA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE IT STARTS TO BOMB OUT AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE COD IN MASSACHUSETTS BY NIGHTFALL. TRAILING FROM
THE LOW WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO BE INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY 12Z THAT TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WITH IT. BUT UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT WE HAVE HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN GA AND CHANCE/LIKELY POPS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
IN THE MORNING...BEFORE COVERAGE DIMINISHES QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE BY
LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY. LARGE AND STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES
OF AS MUCH AS 2-3MB/3 HOURS THROUGH 18Z WILL COINCIDE WITH THE BEST
COLD ADVECTION. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY COLD ADVECTION WANES...BUT
DEEP MIXING AND A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PERSIST. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT
A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE TO THE CRITERIA FOR A
WIND ADVISORY WHICH OCCURS WHEN WE HAVE 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS FOR
ONE HOUR AND/OR GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR MORE FOR ANY DURATION. CLOUD
COVER WILL ERODE FOR THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON FROM WEST/SW TO
EAST/NE AND ONCE INSOLATION DOES DEVELOP IT WILL SPEND MUCH OF ITS
ENERGY EVAPORATING THE PREVIOUS RAINS. THAT ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION
WILL ACTUALLY PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A ATYPICAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS
TEMPS DROP SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE MORNING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THEN ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT... MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL ONLY HAVE TEMPS IN THE
50S.
LAKE WINDS...ANALYSIS OF SOUNDINGS AND GEOSTROPHIC WINDS INDICATE
THAT WHILE WE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR GREATER
OVER AND NEAR THE SHORELINE OF LAKE MOULTRIE ON SATURDAY...WINDS
WON/T MIX AS MUCH OVER THE BULK OF THE LAKE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
WFO CAE WE HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO HOIST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...WITH STEADY PRESSURE RISES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN A TIGHT GRADIENT...AN ADVISORY MAY YET BE REQUIRED AT A LATER
TIME.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GULF WILL POKE INTO THE
FORECAST ZONES BEHIND THE LARGE AND INTENSE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN
WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM OFF NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL SHUT OFF
CONSIDERABLY AT SUNSET...AND ALTHOUGH MOST LOCALES WON/T GO
COMPLETELY CALM THERE IS ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR
SKIES TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR ALL BUT THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK RIDGING INITIALLY THAT GIVES WAY TO
A SLIGHTLY MORE CYCLONIC FLOW LATE IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL BE ORGANIZING IN RESPONSE TO AN
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE DIGGING SE THROUGH THE OHIO...TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE...DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES
OFF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
HOWEVER HOLDS COASTAL SC COMMUNITIES IN THE MID 50S.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL SWING RAPIDLY
INTO THE SE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC MONDAY. CO-LOCATED
AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA/NORTHERN NC AT NIGHT AND STARTS TO DEEPEN AS IT.
TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTS...ONE THAT PULLS
THROUGH HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE SECOND THAT
APPROACHES BY LATE MONDAY. WITH PWATS LESS THAN 1/2 INCH...LITTLE TO
NO CONVERGENCE NOR INSTABILITY THE RISK FOR ANY SHOWERS IS REMOTE
WITH THE COLD FRONTS. WE CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING GIVEN THE
STRONG IMPULSE ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT WE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF A DRY FORECAST. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FIRST FRONT WILL DROP THE 850 0C ISOTHERM INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. BUT THIS IS NEGATED BY PLENTY OF
INSOLATION MONDAY AND DOWNSLOPE OFF THE MOUNTAINS. THUS TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY BE NEAR OR EVEN A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY...MAINLY IN THE 15-20 MPH AND GUSTY RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...SETTING UP COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A LARGE MID
LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. IN
GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 30S.
TEMPS SHOULD THEN SLOWLY MODIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK AS THE
MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BORDERING LINE IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE AREA. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DESPITE THE GUSTINESS...LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH 2000 FT WINDS 45-50 KT. COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS 12-13Z WITH WINDS TURNING WEST IN ITS
WAKE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MID-LATE MORNING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO BOTH
TERMINALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WE WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WEST-NW WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WINDS DROP OFF BY SUNSET. GUSTY NW WINDS TO
OCCUR AGAIN MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND 41008 SUGGESTING GALES ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND LIKELY IN THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS. GALE WARNINGS LOOK WELL PLACED...AND STILL THINK
CONDITIONS OVER THE REMAINING LEGS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 9-12 FT OFFSHORE WITH 7-10 FT
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND 5-8 FT ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY...DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE ONGOING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE DELMARVA. STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES INTO THE
AFTERNOON WILL COINCIDE WITH THE BEST COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL
EASILY SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WEST/NW WINDS OF 20-30
KT ACROSS THE 0-20 NM WATERS AND CHARLESTON HARBOR. ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS WE HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING UNTIL 18Z...BUT
ONCE THAT COMES DOWN WE/LL NEED TO TRANSITION OVER TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS ENOUGH IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS/SEAS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
SOME...ALLOWING FOR ALL ADVISORIES TO COME DOWN EXCEPT FOR AMZ374
WHERE WINDS ARE STILL AS HIGH AS 25 KT AND SEAS OF 6 OR 7 FT.
SUNDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS...ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW
PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. WEST AND SW WINDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 15
OR MAYBE 20 KT AND SEAS 5 FT OR LESS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANY IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
HAVE ONLY BEEN TEMPORARY AS A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN AROUND THE LOW
TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PULLS OFF TO THE EAST/NE MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL AGAIN RISE AND ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
SEEM LIKELY.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOR THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE
BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT UNCONTROLLED RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA TO STEADILY RISE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE OHOOPEE RIVER AT REIDSVILLE LIKELY TO
GO INTO FLOOD ON SATURDAY. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE
FOR THAT POINT. THE OGEECHEE RIVER AT MIDVILLE AND EDEN AS WELL AS
THE CANOOCHEE RIVER AT CLAXTON COULD ALSO MAKE A RUN FOR FLOOD
STAGE. VARIOUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATCHING TIDAL TRENDS CAREFULLY. TIDES MAY REACH 7 FT IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR...BUT PREFER TO SEE ONE MORE TIDE REPORT BEFORE
MAKING A CALL ON A POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ330-352-
354.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1133 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH THE
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DROPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT
OF NRN ALBERTA AND BRUSH NERN IA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. JET STREAM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WILL THE
STORM TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY DEALT WITH CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
CLOUD COVER BY AROUND 19Z-20Z. BOTH THE HRRR AND HOPWRF HAVE
CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING B/T 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST
IOWA TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING OVER MUCH OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY AND ADVECTS IN SOME
DRIER AIR AND ALLOWS THE INVERSION TO WEAKEN. THUS...WENT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST WHERE THE
CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT A LITTLE SOONER. WENT CLOSER THE
MAVMOS/SREF FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE IDEAS OF THE MODELS FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS INTO TODAY. WEATHER SYSTEM OUT OF ALBERTA WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY RAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL COLD AIR
FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM AND WILL SEE MILD LATE JANUARY WEATHER
CONTINUE.
A THIRD IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MID WEEK...BRINGING IN VERY MILD AIR.
TUE WILL BE QUITE WARM...MAINLY SOUTHWEST...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
WARMING ON WED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE +16 AT H8 MAKING IT INTO
THE STATE. WENT WARMER THAN MOS AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF
OMS FORECASTS FOR WED. ALL SIGNS LOOK GOOD FOR GOOD WARMING OVER
NON-SNOW COVERED AREAS.
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.
INDICATIONS POINT TO A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BY THE
WEEKEND...LIKELY RIVALING THE COLD OUTBREAK WE SAW THE WEEK OF
THE 5TH.
&&
.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
LOW STRATUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE REGION AND IS
STUBBORNLY REFUSING TO MOVE OUT. THE BACK EDGE TO OUR WEST IS
MAKING SLOW PROGRESS...AND BELIEVE THAT ONCE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVERHEAD AND SURFACE FLOW INCREASES LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT
AND CLOUDS WILL FINALLY CLEAR OUT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER THEY MAY STALL AFTER SUNSET AND LINGER IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE CLEARED THEM OUT AFTER
SUNSET. IN ANY CASE THEY WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST
SIX HOURS OF THE TAFS WITH SLOWLY RISING MVFR CIGS...AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT MCW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MS JAN 15
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS JAN 15
AVIATION...LEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
529 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH THE
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DROPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT
OF NRN ALBERTA AND BRUSH NERN IA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. JET STREAM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WILL THE
STORM TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY DEALT WITH CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
CLOUD COVER BY AROUND 19Z-20Z. BOTH THE HRRR AND HOPWRF HAVE
CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING B/T 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST
IOWA TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING OVER MUCH OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY AND ADVECTS IN SOME
DRIER AIR AND ALLOWS THE INVERSION TO WEAKEN. THUS...WENT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST WHERE THE
CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT A LITTLE SOONER. WENT CLOSER THE
MAVMOS/SREF FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE IDEAS OF THE MODELS FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS INTO TODAY. WEATHER SYSTEM OUT OF ALBERTA WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY RAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL COLD AIR
FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM AND WILL SEE MILD LATE JANUARY WEATHER
CONTINUE.
A THIRD IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MID WEEK...BRINGING IN VERY MILD AIR.
TUE WILL BE QUITE WARM...MAINLY SOUTHWEST...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
WARMING ON WED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE +16 AT H8 MAKING IT INTO
THE STATE. WENT WARMER THAN MOS AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF
OMS FORECASTS FOR WED. ALL SIGNS LOOK GOOD FOR GOOD WARMING OVER
NON-SNOW COVERED AREAS.
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.
INDICATIONS POINT TO A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BY THE
WEEKEND...LIKELY RIVALING THE COLD OUTBREAK WE SAW THE WEEK OF
THE 5TH.
&&
.AVIATION...22/12Z
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT MCW THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT A
SMALL BREAK IN THE STRATUS DECK MAY SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND
PROVIDE A SHORT STINT OF MVFR OR EVEN VFR CIGS MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...FOD/ALO/OTM SHOULD STAY STRATUS OVER THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THINKING THE HIGH MOVING INTO OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE STATE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH WEAKENING TO THE INVERSION AND DRY
AIR INTO THE STATE THE MVFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND
17Z-18Z AT DSM AND FOD.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MS JAN 15
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS JAN 15
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
335 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH THE
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DROPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT
OF NRN ALBERTA AND BRUSH NERN IA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. JET STREAM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WILL THE
STORM TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY DEALT WITH CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CLOUD
COVER BY AROUND 19Z-20Z. BOTH THE HRRR AND HOPWRF HAVE CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATING B/T 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OVER MUCH
OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY AND ADVECTS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND ALLOWS THE
INVERSION TO WEAKEN. THUS...WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST
OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST WHERE THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT
A LITTLE SOONER. WENT CLOSER THE MAVMOS/SREF FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE IDEAS OF THE MODELS FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS INTO TODAY. WEATHER SYSTEM OUT OF ALBERTA WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY RAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL COLD AIR
FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM AND WILL SEE MILD LATE JANUARY WEATHER
CONTINUE.
A THIRD IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MID WEEK...BRINGING IN VERY MILD AIR.
TUE WILL BE QUITE WARM...MAINLY SOUTHWEST...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
WARMING ON WED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE +16 AT H8 MAKING IT INTO
THE STATE. WENT WARMER THAN MOS AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF
OMS FORECASTS FOR WED. ALL SIGNS LOOK GOOD FOR GOOD WARMING OVER
NON-SNOW COVERED AREAS.
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.
INDICATIONS POINT TO A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BY THE
WEEKEND...LIKELY RIVALING THE COLD OUTBREAK WE SAW THE WEEK OF
THE 5TH.
&&
.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015
MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN IA WITH VFR BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
WILL HAVE PERIOD OF MVFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT THEN GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO VFR ENTIRE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF
IFR IS POSSIBLE AT KALO/KMCW OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MS JAN 15
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS JAN 15
AVIATION...DONAVON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
905 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
.MARINE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE COASTALS, CANX SCA NEAR SHORE
WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY, ISSUING CAUTION IN ITS PLACE AS WINDS
DIMINISHING CLOSE IN FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. HOISTED CAUTION FOR
VERMILION BAY TNITE AS UPPER TROF SWEEPS THRU. KEPT SCA IN FORCE
FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY AND ALL OUTER
WATERS TNITE...THEN CAUTION ON SATURDAY TIL NOON.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
UPDATE...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BEING SQUEEZED OUT AHEAD OF
AN H5 TROF AXIS WILL END FOR THE NIGHT FROM THE WEST ON A LINE
FROM ALEXANDRIA TO BEAUMONT. LEFT MINIMAL POPS OUT AHEAD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR BEING USHERED IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE H5 TROF WHICH IS MOVING ALONG TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT A GOOD 25 MPH...ON TRACK TO CLEAR LOWER ACADIANA BY MIDNIGHT.
LATEST RUC CONFIRMS PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS ON TRACK EXCEPT FOR A
TWEAK LOWER FOR THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND SW LOUISIANA. GRIDS
ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE MIXED CONTS TO FALL ACROSS SE TX AND SRN
LA THIS EVE. THE BACK OF THE RAIN SHIELD IS MOVING THRU HARDIN AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. XPC TO SEE SKIES CLRG OVR SE TX TWRDS
03Z AND OVR SRN LA TWRDS 06Z MVFR/IFR ALL SITES BUT TAF LCTNS SHLD
BECMG VFR TWRDS 06Z.
19
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC LOW OVER THE SE U.S. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST OVER OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER E TX AND LA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL BE OUT OF
THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 40S AREAWIDE...AND
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S AFTER SKIES CLEAR FROM W TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THE WINDS CALM DOWN.
PLEASANT BUT COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A PREDOMINATE NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE REGION...AND
A SERIES OF RE-ENFORCING HIGHS BUILD SOUTHEAST. THUS...FOR SUN
THRU THU...EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY FRI...INCREASING MOISTURE WITH AN
APPROACHING TROF AND FRONT MAY YIELD A CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT.
DML
MARINE...
NNW TO N WINDS 20-25 KTS & SEAS 3-7 FT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE EXITING OF THE SFC LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
THUS SCA CONTINUES FOR 0-60NM COASTAL ZONES THRU 06Z...AND THRU
12Z SAT FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES. SCEC FOR AREA LAKES/BAYS. PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY
MORNING...BECOMING WESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE GULF WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 36 58 41 65 45 / 20 10 0 0 0
KBPT 35 60 41 65 44 / 10 10 0 0 0
KAEX 34 57 38 64 42 / 20 10 0 0 0
KLFT 36 58 40 64 43 / 20 10 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CST SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS
FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO
60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
824 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
.UPDATE...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BEING SQUEEZED OUT AHEAD OF
AN H5 TROF AXIS WILL END FOR THE NIGHT FROM THE WEST ON A LINE
FROM ALEXANDRIA TO BEAUMONT. LEFT MINIMAL POPS OUT AHEAD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR BEING USHERED IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE H5 TROF WHICH IS MOVING ALONG TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT A GOOD 25 MPH...ON TRACK TO CLEAR LOWER ACADIANA BY MIDNIGHT.
LATEST RUC CONFIRMS PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS ON TRACK EXCEPT FOR A
TWEAK LOWER FOR THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND SW LOUISIANA. GRIDS
ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE MIXED CONTS TO FALL ACROSS SE TX AND SRN
LA THIS EVE. THE BACK OF THE RAIN SHIELD IS MOVING THRU HARDIN AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. XPC TO SEE SKIES CLRG OVR SE TX TWRDS
03Z AND OVR SRN LA TWRDS 06Z MVFR/IFR ALL SITES BUT TAF LCTNS SHLD
BECMG VFR TWRDS 06Z.
19
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC LOW OVER THE SE U.S. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST OVER OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER E TX AND LA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL BE OUT OF
THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 40S AREAWIDE...AND
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S AFTER SKIES CLEAR FROM W TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THE WINDS CALM DOWN.
PLEASANT BUT COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A PREDOMINATE NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE REGION...AND
A SERIES OF RE-ENFORCING HIGHS BUILD SOUTHEAST. THUS...FOR SUN
THRU THU...EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY FRI...INCREASING MOISTURE WITH AN
APPROACHING TROF AND FRONT MAY YIELD A CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT.
DML
MARINE...
NNW TO N WINDS 20-25 KTS & SEAS 3-7 FT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE EXITING OF THE SFC LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
THUS SCA CONTINUES FOR 0-60NM COASTAL ZONES THRU 06Z...AND THRU
12Z SAT FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES. SCEC FOR AREA LAKES/BAYS. PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY
MORNING...BECOMING WESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE GULF WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 36 58 41 65 45 / 20 10 0 0 0
KBPT 35 60 41 65 44 / 10 10 0 0 0
KAEX 34 57 38 64 42 / 20 10 0 0 0
KLFT 36 58 40 64 43 / 20 10 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
317 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015
.DISCUSSION...
BROAD AREA OF RAIN COVERING OUR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NOW HOVERING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
OUR 100 PERCENT POP FORECAST LOOKING RIGHT ON THE MONEY...SO A JOB
WELL DONE TO OUR STAFF.
ON THE LARGER CANVAS...IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
ENERGY RIDING THROUGH OUR AREA AT THE MOMENT. THIS HAS SPAWNED AN
ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE TEXAS OFFSHORE COASTAL
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO GALVESTON. MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GULF
MOISTURE TRAPPED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS & LOUISIANA COASTAL
WATERS IN A VERY RICH CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE LARGE SWATHS OF RAIN
ARE BEING CREATED AND THEN MOVED INLAND.
OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS GOING TO CREATE A VERY GENEROUS AMOUNT OF 1 1/2
TO 2 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO THREE INCHES. THE RAIN
WILL BE HERE TO STAY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS OUR HRRR & GFS MODELS
SHOWING OUR NEWLY BORN SURFACE LOW MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. I RAISED THE
WIND ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH
BECAUSE THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TIGHTEN UP THE WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR
COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME GUSTS AT TIMES FURTHER NORTH AT LEAST
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
SO...ELEVATED WINDS ARE GOING TO BE A PROBLEM UNTIL MIDNIGHT ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE RAINS ARE GOING TO BE THE BIGGEST
PROBLEMS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA BY NOON FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKS EVEN CLOSER TO US.
RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE ENTIRE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH DAY SEVEN LOOKS DRY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A SLOW WARM-UP FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY AS SOUTHEAST
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TRANSITIONS TO A NORTHERLY FLOW LATER TONIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHWEST GULF SURFACE LOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 44 48 37 57 / 100 30 20 10
KBPT 44 49 37 58 / 100 30 10 0
KAEX 41 45 34 56 / 100 40 20 0
KLFT 46 48 38 56 / 100 30 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ACADIA-CALCASIEU-
EAST CAMERON-IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST.
MARTIN-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM
20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
CALCASIEU LAKE-SABINE LAKE-VERMILION BAY.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WITH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
POSITIONED IN THE POLEWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG JET AXIS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROMOTE ACTIVE SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS EVIDENCED BY SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST HAS SHOWN
GOOD SIGNS OF CLEARING OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN WITH BACK EDGE
OF THE STRATUS WORKING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS CLEARING WOULD WORK IT INTO
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGY IS A FACTOR
WORKING AGAINST CLEARING. NAM AND RAP RH PROGS ARE NOT MUCH HELP
HERE AS THEY DID NOT SHOW THE AREA OF CLEARING TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER
THEY DO SHOW POCKETS OF CLEARING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT.
THE UPSHOT IS...TRENDED A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN ORDER
THAT THE FORECAST NOT BOUNCE AROUND TOO MUCH AS CONFIDENCE IN
CLEARING SKIES IS STILL NOT HIGH.
CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPS AS WELL. SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET
MOS. SOME ROOM FOR TEMPS TO DROP BELOW FORECAST LOWS IF CLEARING IS
REALIZED...HOWEVER STILL THINK MAV MOS IS A BIT TOO LOW AS IT IS
UNDERDOING SURFACE DEWPOINTS. ALSO...INCREASING SW GRADIENT FLOW
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL TEMP
DROP OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR AS AN EXPANSIVE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES QUITE COMPLEX TO END THE WEEK. AMPLIFIED
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS GET FOLDED OVER IN THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY WHICH TRIES TO PINCH OFF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. ENERGETIC SOUTHERN STREAM KEEPS IT FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
PREVENTING A TRUE CUTOFF LOW FROM FORMING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY EVENTUALLY CARVES
OUT ANOTHER DOMINATE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE STRUNG OUT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND TO THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL GET COMPRESSED
BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM LOW TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
DEVELOPING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED PINCHED OFF
TROUGH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY AS THE
SYSTEMS DRAW NEARER EACH OTHER WITH THE ATTEMPTED PHASING OF THE
JETS. OVERALL THIS YIELDS A SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF PHASING JETS OR LOCATION OF THE SFC
FEATURES USUALLY LEADS TO JUMPS IN THE FORECAST. LUCKILY IN THIS
CASE...THE PHASING IS ADVERTISED FAR ENOUGH DOWN STREAM TO NEGATE SOME
OF THE TYPICAL CONCERNS.
FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED AT THE SFC...THE LOW PASSING
THROUGH ONTARIO WILL DROP A COLD FRONT/TROUGH THROUGH LOWER MI IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS THE RIDGE AND
TROUGH TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE. THESE SW WINDS
WILL BRING THE NOSE OF A THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR WILL STEEPEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 950-900MB
AS IT WARMS THE LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900MB. SO LOOK FOR ELEVATED
WINDS AROUND 15-20MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25MPH PEAKING IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE STOUT INVERSION WILL PREVENT BETTER MIXING FROM
BRINGING SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE INVERSION DOWN TO
THE SFC.
THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER CENTRAL MI AROUND MIDNIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
NORTHERN THUMB. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS DECENT WITH
PWATS INCREASING FROM UNDER 0.2 TO AROUND 0.5 INCHES. THE RIBBON OF
THETA E ALONG THE FRONT IS VERY NARROW WITH A GOOD GRADIENT ON THE
LEAD EDGE INITIALLY...BUT WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN
MI. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
RIGHT NOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL OTHER SMALL WAVES ARE ADVERTISED
TO SHOOT THROUGH THE DEVELOPING NW FLOW KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A SECOND...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO LOWER MI SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
TRANSITION TO NW FLOW CONTINUES. WITH BL MOISTURE STILL PREVALENT
AND THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES
THROUGH 800MB...WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW POP SNOW SHOWER MENTION
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
CLIPPER DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND BEGINS INFLUENCING CONDITIONS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING IN
ANOTHER SHOT AT ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP
DAYTIME HIGH`S INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20`S WITH SINGLE DIGIT
OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURNING FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
CLIPPER SWINGS THROUGH. TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 30`S DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL REACH
NORTHERN QUEBEC FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH ALLOWING WINDS TO
AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THOUGH
SUSTAINED WINDS APPEAR TO REACH INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE...WARM
AIR ALOFT AND A STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION APPEAR PREVENT STRONGER
GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WINDS
WILL GUST AT OR JUST ABOVE 30 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE
HURON. THOUGH GALE FORCE GUSTS CANNOT BE RULES OUT
ENTIRELY...CURRENT MODELS AND ANALYSIS SUGGEST WINDS TO THIS
STRENGTH WOULD BE QUITE SPORADIC...AND NOT WIDE SPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A GALE WARNING OR CONTINUING THE WATCH AT THIS TIME SO THE
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. EXTENSIVE ICE COVER IN THE LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE ZONES WILL PREVENT ANY WAVES DEVELOPING WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW TO AROUND 25 KNOTS...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH THAT PERIOD...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE
FORCE.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1240 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015
MORNING FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS DEEPER MOISTURE HAS EXITED THE
AREA. NOT EXPECTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
CIGS ARE SETTLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE...THOUGH THERE ARE
WEAKNESSES IN THE CLOUD DECK WITH CLEAR SKIES BETWEEN MBS AND FNT
AND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT FEEL THAT BKN-OVC MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT AS CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ACTS TO TRAP
MOISTURE AND ALLOW CLOUD BASES TO LOWER SOMEWHAT. SOME AREAS OF
CLEARING ARE POSSIBLE WHICH CAN BE HANDLED BY SHORT-TERM
AMENDMENTS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT SW FLOW
WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...ESPECIALLY
FROM PTK NORTHWARD.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR PREVAILING CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DT
LONG TERM....DRK/DE
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....DT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
241 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
A CLOUDY SKY COVERS ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION (SEEN ON 00Z KINL SOUNDING) FROM THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A -12C
850MB THERMAL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING (ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND BRUSHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR) AND AIDING
WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS OVER
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. OVERALL THESE ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND DISJOINTED
DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THOSE MARGINAL FEATURES HAVE ALSO LEAD TO OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE LAST EVENING OVER THE KEWEENAW AND ALSO OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MENTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT EXPECT THERE TO
BE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT WITH THE PRECIP BEING PREDOMINATELY SNOW.
UNDER THE CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH 3AM TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOWER 20S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY...AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO STEADILY
BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING AND SHIFT ANY REMAINING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OVER THE EAST OFFSHORE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THE
FORECAST TODAY IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE CLOUDS. MOST MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN WITH THAT DUE TO THE
UPSTREAM OBS STILL INDICATING LOW CLOUDS INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH.
BUT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING MIXING AND THE MOISTURE
LAYER BECOMING THIN...DID TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY.
THIS SITUATIONS ARE TRICKY...AS SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT
COMPLETELY (AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS) WHILE THERE
COULD STILL BE POCKETS OF CLOUDY SKIES. AS THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THUS...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL PRODUCE GALES
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO GUSTY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. THINK THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL REMAIN TOWARDS ISLE
ROYALE WHERE THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE LOCATED...BUT STILL SHOULD
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20-25KTS (AND 30KTS OVER THE KEWEENAW) TONIGHT.
AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE IT
IMPACTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BETWEEN 9-12Z. HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION AS SNOW FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS THROUGH 12Z...BUT WITH
THE NAM INDICATING A WARM NOSE MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
TOWARDS 12Z...DID ADD A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO THAT
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015
NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY 00Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-
500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS STAYING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA.
WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE WI BORDER AND IN THE SOUTH WITH THE ALBERTA
CLIPPER PASSING BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GOING TEMPERATURES LOOKED
GOOD AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THEM.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES 12Z MON. THIS TROUGH DIGS ONTO THE EAST COAST 12Z TUE
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE
12Z WED. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU
WITH A SHOT OF COLD AIR COMING INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE WITH VERY LOW POPS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. OVERALL...NO BIG CHANGES OR BIG EVENTS SEEN AND WILL BE
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015
SKIES HAVE CLEARED TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO STAY MOSTLY CLEAR INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE WIND
SHEAR AT ALL SITES WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. ALL SITES WILL SEE LOWERING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW BEFORE BECOMING
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING...STEADILY BACKING WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO...EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. BASED
OFF THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 45KT GUSTS AT THE HIGHER PLATFORMS AROUND
ISLE ROYALE. THE GALE WARNING THAT IS IN PLACE LOOKS TO BE IN DECENT
SHAPE...ALTHOUGH DID EXPAND IT SOUTHWEST TO LSZ162. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGING AN END
TO THE GALES. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT WINDS TO 25-30KTS BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH ON MOVING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE SECONDARY
TROUGH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SLIDE THROUGH WISCONSIN SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO
20KTS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS CLIPPER AND KEEP WINDS 15KTS OR BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
/8 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1236 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
A CLOUDY SKY COVERS ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION (SEEN ON 00Z KINL SOUNDING) FROM THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A -12C
850MB THERMAL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING (ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND BRUSHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR) AND AIDING
WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS OVER
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. OVERALL THESE ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND DISJOINTED
DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THOSE MARGINAL FEATURES HAVE ALSO LEAD TO OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE LAST EVENING OVER THE KEWEENAW AND ALSO OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MENTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT EXPECT THERE TO
BE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT WITH THE PRECIP BEING PREDOMINATELY SNOW.
UNDER THE CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH 3AM TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOWER 20S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY...AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO STEADILY
BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING AND SHIFT ANY REMAINING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OVER THE EAST OFFSHORE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THE
FORECAST TODAY IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE CLOUDS. MOST MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN WITH THAT DUE TO THE
UPSTREAM OBS STILL INDICATING LOW CLOUDS INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH.
BUT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING MIXING AND THE MOISTURE
LAYER BECOMING THIN...DID TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY.
THIS SITUATIONS ARE TRICKY...AS SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT
COMPLETELY (AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS) WHILE THERE
COULD STILL BE POCKETS OF CLOUDY SKIES. AS THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THUS...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL PRODUCE GALES
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO GUSTY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. THINK THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL REMAIN TOWARDS ISLE
ROYALE WHERE THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE LOCATED...BUT STILL SHOULD
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20-25KTS (AND 30KTS OVER THE KEWEENAW) TONIGHT.
AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE IT
IMPACTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BETWEEN 9-12Z. HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION AS SNOW FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS THROUGH 12Z...BUT WITH
THE NAM INDICATING A WARM NOSE MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
TOWARDS 12Z...DID ADD A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO THAT
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN NW MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF CLIPPERS INTO THE REGION. IT
APPEARS AT THIS TIME ANY LES FROM THESE CLIPPERS WOULD BE LIGHT AS
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER NE CANADA.
FRIDAY...MODELS FCST QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG
WITH 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN INTO PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PCPN AMOUNTS/PLACEMENT. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MORNING WITH DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM...WHICH OFTEN PERFORMS BETTER WITH
DEVELOPING WARM LAYERS ALOFT...SUGGESTS THAT THE PCPN OVER THE WEST
HALF COULD BE MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS THE MAX TEMP
ALOFT CLIMBS TO AROUND 3C(NEAR 900 MB). THE POSITION OF THE WARM
NOSE WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ICING OVER MAINLY JUST THE
FAR WEST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAX
READINGS INTO THE MID 30S.
FRI NIGHT... COLDER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MOVE IN FRI NIGHT WITH
NW WINDS BEHIND A SFC TROUGH AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -6C TO -8C BY
12Z/SAT. SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR NW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WRLY FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR BEHIND
THE SFC TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH WITH MANY
LOCATIONS NOT DROPPING MUCH BELOW 30F...ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS.
SAT...MARGINALLY COLD AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO
-12C WILL MOVE IN AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES. DIMINISHING
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND NRLY WITH TIME WILL
ALSO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LES ACCUMULATIONS CONSISTENT WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS.
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE ECMWF REMAINS FARTHEST TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH WITH LITTLE PCPN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WHILE THE
CANADIAN BRINGS THE HEAVIER PCPN THROUGH THE CWA. SOME AREAS IN THE
REGION COULD SEE SNOWFALL INTO THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE GFS REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE KEEPING THEPCPN OVER WEST UPPER
MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH CONSENSUS FCST WHICH KEEPS CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE WEST.
MON INTO WED...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY LATE MON OR MON NIGHT BUT THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
WITH THIS SHRTWV WITH ONLY LIGHT PCPN REMAINING WEST OF UPPER MI.
SFC RIDGING INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR LES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015
SKIES HAVE CLEARED TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO STAY MOSTLY CLEAR INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE WIND
SHEAR AT ALL SITES WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. ALL SITES WILL SEE LOWERING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW BEFORE BECOMING
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING...STEADILY BACKING WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO...EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. BASED
OFF THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 45KT GUSTS AT THE HIGHER PLATFORMS AROUND
ISLE ROYALE. THE GALE WARNING THAT IS IN PLACE LOOKS TO BE IN DECENT
SHAPE...ALTHOUGH DID EXPAND IT SOUTHWEST TO LSZ162. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGING AN END
TO THE GALES. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT WINDS TO 25-30KTS BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH ON MOVING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE SECONDARY
TROUGH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SLIDE THROUGH WISCONSIN SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO
20KTS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS CLIPPER AND KEEP WINDS 15KTS OR BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
/8 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
725 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
A CLOUDY SKY COVERS ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION (SEEN ON 00Z KINL SOUNDING) FROM THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A -12C
850MB THERMAL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING (ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND BRUSHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR) AND AIDING
WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS OVER
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. OVERALL THESE ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND DISJOINTED
DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THOSE MARGINAL FEATURES HAVE ALSO LEAD TO OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE LAST EVENING OVER THE KEWEENAW AND ALSO OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MENTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT EXPECT THERE TO
BE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT WITH THE PRECIP BEING PREDOMINATELY SNOW.
UNDER THE CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH 3AM TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOWER 20S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY...AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO STEADILY
BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING AND SHIFT ANY REMAINING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OVER THE EAST OFFSHORE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THE
FORECAST TODAY IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE CLOUDS. MOST MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN WITH THAT DUE TO THE
UPSTREAM OBS STILL INDICATING LOW CLOUDS INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH.
BUT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING MIXING AND THE MOISTURE
LAYER BECOMING THIN...DID TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY.
THIS SITUATIONS ARE TRICKY...AS SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT
COMPLETELY (AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS) WHILE THERE
COULD STILL BE POCKETS OF CLOUDY SKIES. AS THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THUS...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL PRODUCE GALES
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO GUSTY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. THINK THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL REMAIN TOWARDS ISLE
ROYALE WHERE THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE LOCATED...BUT STILL SHOULD
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20-25KTS (AND 30KTS OVER THE KEWEENAW) TONIGHT.
AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE IT
IMPACTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BETWEEN 9-12Z. HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION AS SNOW FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS THROUGH 12Z...BUT WITH
THE NAM INDICATING A WARM NOSE MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
TOWARDS 12Z...DID ADD A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO THAT
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN NW MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF CLIPPERS INTO THE REGION. IT
APPEARS AT THIS TIME ANY LES FROM THESE CLIPPERS WOULD BE LIGHT AS
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER NE CANADA.
FRIDAY...MODELS FCST QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG
WITH 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN INTO PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PCPN AMOUNTS/PLACEMENT. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MORNING WITH DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM...WHICH OFTEN PERFORMS BETTER WITH
DEVELOPING WARM LAYERS ALOFT...SUGGESTS THAT THE PCPN OVER THE WEST
HALF COULD BE MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS THE MAX TEMP
ALOFT CLIMBS TO AROUND 3C(NEAR 900 MB). THE POSITION OF THE WARM
NOSE WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ICING OVER MAINLY JUST THE
FAR WEST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAX
READINGS INTO THE MID 30S.
FRI NIGHT... COLDER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MOVE IN FRI NIGHT WITH
NW WINDS BEHIND A SFC TROUGH AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -6C TO -8C BY
12Z/SAT. SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR NW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WRLY FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR BEHIND
THE SFC TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH WITH MANY
LOCATIONS NOT DROPPING MUCH BELOW 30F...ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS.
SAT...MARGINALLY COLD AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO
-12C WILL MOVE IN AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES. DIMINISHING
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND NRLY WITH TIME WILL
ALSO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LES ACCUMULATIONS CONSISTENT WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS.
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE ECMWF REMAINS FARTHEST TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH WITH LITTLE PCPN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WHILE THE
CANADIAN BRINGS THE HEAVIER PCPN THROUGH THE CWA. SOME AREAS IN THE
REGION COULD SEE SNOWFALL INTO THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE GFS REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE KEEPING THEPCPN OVER WEST UPPER
MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH CONSENSUS FCST WHICH KEEPS CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE WEST.
MON INTO WED...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY LATE MON OR MON NIGHT BUT THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
WITH THIS SHRTWV WITH ONLY LIGHT PCPN REMAINING WEST OF UPPER MI.
SFC RIDGING INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR LES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE TAF
SITES...AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN. BEHIND THE RIDGE...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT KCMX LATE TONIGHT AND THE OTHER SITES ON
FRIDAY. AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE CLOUDS BECOME
PINCHED BY DRY AIR ALOFT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN SCATTERING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD OCCUR FIRST AT KIWD/KSAW WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND THEN AT KCMX. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THE MVFR CLOUDS
BECOME TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION AND DELAY THE DEPARTURE A FEW
HOURS.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WITH THE STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...DID INCLUDE WIND SHEAR FOR ALL THREE
SITES. SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AT
KCMX AND HAVE BROUGHT CONDITIONS BACK DOWN TO MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING...STEADILY BACKING WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO...EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. BASED
OFF THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 45KT GUSTS AT THE HIGHER PLATFORMS AROUND
ISLE ROYALE. THE GALE WARNING THAT IS IN PLACE LOOKS TO BE IN DECENT
SHAPE...ALTHOUGH DID EXPAND IT SOUTHWEST TO LSZ162. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGING AN END
TO THE GALES. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT WINDS TO 25-30KTS BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH ON MOVING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE SECONDARY
TROUGH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SLIDE THROUGH WISCONSIN SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO
20KTS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS CLIPPER AND KEEP WINDS 15KTS OR BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
/8 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
636 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
A CLOUDY SKY COVERS ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION (SEEN ON 00Z KINL SOUNDING) FROM THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A -12C
850MB THERMAL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING (ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND BRUSHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR) AND AIDING
WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS OVER
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. OVERALL THESE ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND DISJOINTED
DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THOSE MARGINAL FEATURES HAVE ALSO LEAD TO OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE LAST EVENING OVER THE KEWEENAW AND ALSO OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MENTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT EXPECT THERE TO
BE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT WITH THE PRECIP BEING PREDOMINATELY SNOW.
UNDER THE CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH 3AM TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOWER 20S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY...AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO STEADILY
BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING AND SHIFT ANY REMAINING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OVER THE EAST OFFSHORE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THE
FORECAST TODAY IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE CLOUDS. MOST MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN WITH THAT DUE TO THE
UPSTREAM OBS STILL INDICATING LOW CLOUDS INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH.
BUT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING MIXING AND THE MOISTURE
LAYER BECOMING THIN...DID TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY.
THIS SITUATIONS ARE TRICKY...AS SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT
COMPLETELY (AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS) WHILE THERE
COULD STILL BE POCKETS OF CLOUDY SKIES. AS THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THUS...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL PRODUCE GALES
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO GUSTY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. THINK THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL REMAIN TOWARDS ISLE
ROYALE WHERE THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE LOCATED...BUT STILL SHOULD
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20-25KTS (AND 30KTS OVER THE KEWEENAW) TONIGHT.
AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE IT
IMPACTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BETWEEN 9-12Z. HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION AS SNOW FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS THROUGH 12Z...BUT WITH
THE NAM INDICATING A WARM NOSE MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
TOWARDS 12Z...DID ADD A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO THAT
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN NW MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF CLIPPERS INTO THE REGION. IT
APPEARS AT THIS TIME ANY LES FROM THESE CLIPPERS WOULD BE LIGHT AS
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER NE CANADA.
FRIDAY...MODELS FCST QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG
WITH 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN INTO PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PCPN AMOUNTS/PLACEMENT. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MORNING WITH DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM...WHICH OFTEN PERFORMS BETTER WITH
DEVELOPING WARM LAYERS ALOFT...SUGGESTS THAT THE PCPN OVER THE WEST
HALF COULD BE MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS THE MAX TEMP
ALOFT CLIMBS TO AROUND 3C(NEAR 900 MB). THE POSITION OF THE WARM
NOSE WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ICING OVER MAINLY JUST THE
FAR WEST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAX
READINGS INTO THE MID 30S.
FRI NIGHT... COLDER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MOVE IN FRI NIGHT WITH
NW WINDS BEHIND A SFC TROUGH AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -6C TO -8C BY
12Z/SAT. SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR NW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WRLY FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR BEHIND
THE SFC TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH WITH MANY
LOCATIONS NOT DROPPING MUCH BELOW 30F...ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS.
SAT...MARGINALLY COLD AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO
-12C WILL MOVE IN AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES. DIMINISHING
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND NRLY WITH TIME WILL
ALSO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LES ACCUMULATIONS CONSISTENT WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS.
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE ECMWF REMAINS FARTHEST TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH WITH LITTLE PCPN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WHILE THE
CANADIAN BRINGS THE HEAVIER PCPN THROUGH THE CWA. SOME AREAS IN THE
REGION COULD SEE SNOWFALL INTO THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE GFS REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE KEEPING THEPCPN OVER WEST UPPER
MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH CONSENSUS FCST WHICH KEEPS CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE WEST.
MON INTO WED...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY LATE MON OR MON NIGHT BUT THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
WITH THIS SHRTWV WITH ONLY LIGHT PCPN REMAINING WEST OF UPPER MI.
SFC RIDGING INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR LES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE TAF
SITES...AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN. BEHIND THE RIDGE...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT KCMX LATE TONIGHT AND THE OTHER SITES ON
FRIDAY. AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE CLOUDS BECOME
PINCHED BY DRY AIR ALOFT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN SCATTERING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD OCCUR FIRST AT KIWD/KSAW WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND THEN AT KCMX. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THE MVFR CLOUDS
BECOME TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION AND DELAY THE DEPARTURE A FEW
HOURS.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WITH THE STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...DID INCLUDE WIND SHEAR FOR ALL THREE
SITES. SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AT
KCMX AND HAVE BROUGHT CONDITIONS BACK DOWN TO MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING...STEADILY BACKING WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO...EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. BASED
OFF THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 45KT GUSTS AT THE HIGHER PLATFORMS AROUND
ISLE ROYALE. THE GALE WARNING THAT IS IN PLACE LOOKS TO BE IN DECENT
SHAPE...ALTHOUGH DID EXPAND IT SOUTHWEST TO LSZ162. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGING AN END
TO THE GALES. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT WINDS TO 25-30KTS BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH ON MOVING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE SECONDARY
TROUGH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SLIDE THROUGH WISCONSIN SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO
20KTS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS CLIPPER AND KEEP WINDS 15KTS OR BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
525 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
A CLOUDY SKY COVERS ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION (SEEN ON 00Z KINL SOUNDING) FROM THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A -12C
850MB THERMAL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING (ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND BRUSHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR) AND AIDING
WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS OVER
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. OVERALL THESE ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND DISJOINTED
DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THOSE MARGINAL FEATURES HAVE ALSO LEAD TO OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE LAST EVENING OVER THE KEWEENAW AND ALSO OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MENTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT EXPECT THERE TO
BE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT WITH THE PRECIP BEING PREDOMINATELY SNOW.
UNDER THE CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH 3AM TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOWER 20S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY...AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO STEADILY
BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING AND SHIFT ANY REMAINING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OVER THE EAST OFFSHORE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THE
FORECAST TODAY IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE CLOUDS. MOST MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN WITH THAT DUE TO THE
UPSTREAM OBS STILL INDICATING LOW CLOUDS INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH.
BUT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING MIXING AND THE MOISTURE
LAYER BECOMING THIN...DID TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY.
THIS SITUATIONS ARE TRICKY...AS SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT
COMPLETELY (AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS) WHILE THERE
COULD STILL BE POCKETS OF CLOUDY SKIES. AS THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THUS...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL PRODUCE GALES
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO GUSTY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. THINK THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL REMAIN TOWARDS ISLE
ROYALE WHERE THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE LOCATED...BUT STILL SHOULD
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20-25KTS (AND 30KTS OVER THE KEWEENAW) TONIGHT.
AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE IT
IMPACTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BETWEEN 9-12Z. HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION AS SNOW FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS THROUGH 12Z...BUT WITH
THE NAM INDICATING A WARM NOSE MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
TOWARDS 12Z...DID ADD A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO THAT
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN NW MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF CLIPPERS INTO THE REGION. IT
APPEARS AT THIS TIME ANY LES FROM THESE CLIPPERS WOULD BE LIGHT AS
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER NE CANADA.
FRIDAY...MODELS FCST QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG
WITH 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN INTO PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PCPN AMOUNTS/PLACEMENT. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MORNING WITH DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM...WHICH OFTEN PERFORMS BETTER WITH
DEVELOPING WARM LAYERS ALOFT...SUGGESTS THAT THE PCPN OVER THE WEST
HALF COULD BE MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS THE MAX TEMP
ALOFT CLIMBS TO AROUND 3C(NEAR 900 MB). THE POSITION OF THE WARM
NOSE WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ICING OVER MAINLY JUST THE
FAR WEST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAX
READINGS INTO THE MID 30S.
FRI NIGHT... COLDER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MOVE IN FRI NIGHT WITH
NW WINDS BEHIND A SFC TROUGH AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -6C TO -8C BY
12Z/SAT. SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR NW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WRLY FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR BEHIND
THE SFC TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH WITH MANY
LOCATIONS NOT DROPPING MUCH BELOW 30F...ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS.
SAT...MARGINALLY COLD AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO
-12C WILL MOVE IN AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES. DIMINISHING
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND NRLY WITH TIME WILL
ALSO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LES ACCUMULATIONS CONSISTENT WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS.
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE ECMWF REMAINS FARTHEST TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH WITH LITTLE PCPN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WHILE THE
CANADIAN BRINGS THE HEAVIER PCPN THROUGH THE CWA. SOME AREAS IN THE
REGION COULD SEE SNOWFALL INTO THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE GFS REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE KEEPING THEPCPN OVER WEST UPPER
MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH CONSENSUS FCST WHICH KEEPS CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE WEST.
MON INTO WED...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY LATE MON OR MON NIGHT BUT THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
WITH THIS SHRTWV WITH ONLY LIGHT PCPN REMAINING WEST OF UPPER MI.
SFC RIDGING INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR LES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015
CURRENT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA AND LIGHT
NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SUGGEST MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE NIGHT. EXPECT SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES AS
WELL...BUT VIS WILL REMAIN VFR. PASSAGE OF HIGH PRES RIDGE TODAY
WILL RESULT IN WINDS BACKING TO THE SW...PUSHING MVFR CIGS OUT AND
BRINGING A RETURN OF VFR TO ALL TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING. DEPENDING ON DEGREE THAT WINDS REMAIN DECOUPLED...LLWS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING...STEADILY BACKING WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO...EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. BASED
OFF THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 45KT GUSTS AT THE HIGHER PLATFORMS AROUND
ISLE ROYALE. THE GALE WARNING THAT IS IN PLACE LOOKS TO BE IN DECENT
SHAPE...ALTHOUGH DID EXPAND IT SOUTHWEST TO LSZ162. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGING AN END
TO THE GALES. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT WINDS TO 25-30KTS BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH ON MOVING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE SECONDARY
TROUGH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SLIDE THROUGH WISCONSIN SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO
20KTS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS CLIPPER AND KEEP WINDS 15KTS OR BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
429 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
A CLOUDY SKY COVERS ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION (SEEN ON 00Z KINL SOUNDING) FROM THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A -12C
850MB THERMAL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING (ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND BRUSHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR) AND AIDING
WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS OVER
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. OVERALL THESE ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND DISJOINTED
DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THOSE MARGINAL FEATURES HAVE ALSO LEAD TO OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE LAST EVENING OVER THE KEWEENAW AND ALSO OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MENTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT EXPECT THERE TO
BE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT WITH THE PRECIP BEING PREDOMINATELY SNOW.
UNDER THE CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH 3AM TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOWER 20S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY...AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO STEADILY
BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING AND SHIFT ANY REMAINING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OVER THE EAST OFFSHORE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THE
FORECAST TODAY IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE CLOUDS. MOST MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN WITH THAT DUE TO THE
UPSTREAM OBS STILL INDICATING LOW CLOUDS INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH.
BUT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING MIXING AND THE MOISTURE
LAYER BECOMING THIN...DID TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY.
THIS SITUATIONS ARE TRICKY...AS SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT
COMPLETELY (AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS) WHILE THERE
COULD STILL BE POCKETS OF CLOUDY SKIES. AS THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THUS...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL PRODUCE GALES
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO GUSTY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. THINK THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL REMAIN TOWARDS ISLE
ROYALE WHERE THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE LOCATED...BUT STILL SHOULD
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20-25KTS (AND 30KTS OVER THE KEWEENAW) TONIGHT.
AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE IT
IMPACTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BETWEEN 9-12Z. HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION AS SNOW FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS THROUGH 12Z...BUT WITH
THE NAM INDICATING A WARM NOSE MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
TOWARDS 12Z...DID ADD A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO THAT
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015
A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN NW MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF CLIPPERS INTO THE REGION. IT
APPEARS AT THIS TIME ANY LES FROM THESE CLIPPERS WOULD BE LIGHT AS
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER NE CANADA.
BEGINNING THU NIGHT...CONTINUED STRONG WAA IN SW WIND REGIME WILL
SHUT OFF LES DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY. SW WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WRN AND NCNTRL PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL INCREASE WITH A
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A FCST 996 MB LOW MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AND
1030 MB RIDGE THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN OVER THE KEWEENAW LATE THU NIGHT AS NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
BE ON EDGE STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES
DEFICITS LEADING TO SATURATION.
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THE WAA MAY BRING SOME PCPN INTO UPPER MI BUT
ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH QPF MAINLY AT OR BELOW 0.05 INCH
EQUATING TO SNOW AMOUNTS OF HALF INCH OR LESS. MODELS 290K-295K FCST
SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST LIFT AND SATURATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE ERN
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH A PROMINENT DRY 925-750 MB
LAYER...ONLY LOWER END 20-30 POPS WERE INCLUDED. COLDER AIR WILL
ONLY GRADUALLY MOVE IN FRI NIGHT WITH NW WINDS BEHIND A SFC TROUGH
AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -6C TO -8C BY 12Z/SAT. SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
SAT...ONLY MARGINALLY COLD AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO
-12C WILL MOVE IN AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES. DIMINISHING
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND NRLY WITH TIME WILL
ALSO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LES ACCUMULATIONS CONSISTENT WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS.
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK...ALTHOUGH 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WILL TRACK WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z CANADIAN IS THE OUTLIER AND TRACKS THE
LOW ACROSS THE U.P./WI BDR ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL
CONTINUE ALONG WITH CONSENSUS FCST WHICH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
PREV FCST KEEPING CHC POPS CONFINED TO THE FAR WEST WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS INTO THE CENTRAL AND FOR SOME LINGERING N-NE FLOW LES.
MON INTO WED...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS DUE IN FOR THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS ARE STILL IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE. 12Z GFS SHOWS A STRONGER WAVE
AND ASSOC SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES ON TUE WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER WAVE MOVING WELL NE OF THE UPPER LAKES ON
WED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WED/WED NIGHT. AT ANY RATE
WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS (ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR) IN FOR MUCH
OF THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015
CURRENT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA AND LIGHT
NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SUGGEST MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE NIGHT. EXPECT SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES AS
WELL...BUT VIS WILL REMAIN VFR. PASSAGE OF HIGH PRES RIDGE TODAY
WILL RESULT IN WINDS BACKING TO THE SW...PUSHING MVFR CIGS OUT AND
BRINGING A RETURN OF VFR TO ALL TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING. DEPENDING ON DEGREE THAT WINDS REMAIN DECOUPLED...LLWS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING...STEADILY BACKING WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO...EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. BASED
OFF THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 45KT GUSTS AT THE HIGHER PLATFORMS AROUND
ISLE ROYALE. THE GALE WARNING THAT IS IN PLACE LOOKS TO BE IN DECENT
SHAPE...ALTHOUGH DID EXPAND IT SOUTHWEST TO LSZ162. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGING AN END
TO THE GALES. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT WINDS TO 25-30KTS BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH ON MOVING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE SECONDARY
TROUGH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SLIDE THROUGH WISCONSIN SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO
20KTS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS CLIPPER AND KEEP WINDS 15KTS OR BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
620 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINA`S TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
COLD RAINY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RETREAT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKED ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. RAIN BECAME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CAROLINA`S TODAY WITH SOME AREAS REPORTING A
BRIEF MIXTURE OF SLEET AND RAIN AT THE PRECIPIATION ONSET FROM THE
TRIAD TO ROXBORO. THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WAS RETREATING RAPIDLY
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WHICH QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY SOURCE OF COLD AIR
INTO OUR REGION. INSTEAD... A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW INCREASED JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH RAPIDLY MOISTENING AND WARMING COLUMN OUT IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES... THEN CROSSES OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT... THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL TURN NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
GA/SC/NC OVERNIGHT. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING
AND WITH SATURATION IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE... AND EVEN CONTINUED
WARMING ALOFT... PLAIN RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATE OVER NC.
THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR THE LOWS ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON (IN
THE MID 30S)... WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISE (ESPECIALLY ALONG I-95 OVERNIGHT). THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVEMENT
OF THE LOW PRESSURE (REACHING NEAR ELIZABETH CITY BY 09Z/SAT) SHOULD
COMBINE WITH THE STRONG IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT OVER THE
PIEDMONT TO LIMIT THE WESTWARD OR INLAND PUSH OF THE COASTAL FRONT.
TEMPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY WELL RISE TO AROUND 50 LATE
TONIGHT... WHILE READINGS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT.
QPF MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AS THE DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ROLLING ALONG FROM THE GULF TO FLORIDA...
HAVING SOME NEGATIVE IMPACT ON QPF INLAND. JUST HOW MUCH THIS
AFFECTS OUR STORM TOTALS IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. THE LATEST HRRR AND
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT ABOUT 1/3 LESS QPF THAN THE
EARLIER 1-2 INCH FORECAST. WE WILL TREND A BIT LOWER - WHICH WOULD
LESSEN THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION - WHICH WAS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO CREATE MAJOR PROBLEMS EVEN WITH 1-2 INCHES STORM
TOTALS. THE HRRR... WHICH ACTUALLY VERIFIED WELL WITH P-TYPE AND
TIMING TODAY... INDICATES THE MAIN BACK EDGE OF THE LARGE RAIN
SHIELD MAY EDGE INTO THE SW PIEDMONT BY AT LEAST 06Z AND THE REST OF
THE REGION BY 12Z/SAT. HOWEVER... THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL "FILL IN"
OF ANY DRY HOLES INLAND SC/NC IF/WHEN THE DEEP SOUTH/FLORIDA
CONVECTION DISSIPATES. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS MINIMAL OVER OUR
REGION GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AROUND OR JUST EAST OF I-95... AS
MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE CAD REGION. THE HEAVIEST QPF
AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS STILL FORECAST OVER AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE... WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY 0.50 TO 0.75 IN THE NW. -BADGETT
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
THE MAIN RAIN EVENT WILL END BETWEEN 09Z/15Z SW TO NE ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY AS THE STORM BOMBS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM DELMARVA.
THE TRAILING DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE MID LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT SPREADS EAST FROM
KY/TN/WVA INTO WESTERN VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION... THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW AND
INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH IN DOWNSLOPE FASHION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SHARP CLEARING FROM OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DOWN
EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN INTO THE 45-55 RANGE
NW TO SE. THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS 30-35 WITH DIMINISHING NW BREEZES IN THE
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY: FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY WITH A
FLAT RIDGE OVER OUR AREA...BETWEEN SATURDAY`S DEPARTING SHORT
WAVE...AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEAR-NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE ASSOC SFC LOW MOVES FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY
SUNDAY EVENING EWD TO CENTRAL NC BY 12Z MONDAY. A PLUME OF MOISTURE
AND PERHAPS A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT AND INVOF OF THE TRIPLE POINT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS. DESPITE NOTABLE COOLING ALOFT...ALL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NC SHOW LOW LEVELS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
WITH THIS BAND OF SHOWERS...EVEN ACROSS THE TRIAD. LOWS MONDAY
MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO
CROSS CENTRAL NC...ALONG WITH THE TRIPLE POINT LOW TAKING OVER AND
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE OF KHSE. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA (ESP OUR NORTHERN/NE ZONES) AS THE TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS...BUT MOISTURE IS MODEST AND CONSENSUS MODEL QPF
FOR THE DAYTIME MONDAY IS WELL UNDER ONE TENTH INCH. WITH THE BL
WIND SHIFT TO N AND THE START OF LOW LEVEL CAA NOT OCCURRING UNTIL
AFTER NOON...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH SUCH THAN ANY
PRECIP DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COOLING WILL
HAVE OCCURRED THAT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NE ZONES (INVOF
OF DEEPER MOISTURE UNDER THE TROUGH AXIS) MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS. BUT AGAIN...KEEP IN MIND THAT MODEL QPF VALUES ARE
VERY LIGHT...SO PERHAPS ONLY FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WITH NO ACCUM...IF ANY PRECIP AT ALL. AS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH THESE
SYSTEMS...IT`S A CLOSE TIMING ISSUE BETWEEN ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR
AND DEPARTURE OF MOISTURE.
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA BY
THEN WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP APPEARS TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST PER
GFS...OR LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE AT ALL ACROSS OUR AREA PER ECMWF.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS LOW ACROSS OUR AREA GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN LOWER 40S.
FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING TROUGH...BUT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO DEEP N-NW FLOW.
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY APPROACH LATE THURSDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS SUGGEST A DRY TROUGH
PASSAGE THANKS TO ANTECEDENT DRY NW FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 620 PM FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD LIFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WILL
PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COASTAL NC AND OUT TO SEA BY
EARLY SATURDAY. A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN 1500-2000FT
COUPLED WITH NELY SFC WINDS WILL CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF KFAY...KRWI...AND KRDU THROUGH 06Z.
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DISPLAY AS SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME WEST-NW. THIS DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL AID TO DIMINISH CLOUD COVERAGE WEST-TO-EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1219 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
PATCH OF STRATUS MOVING NORTHEAST AS EXPECTED EXITING FARGO AND
MOVING THROUGH MAHNOMEN AND FOSSTON. OTHERWISE CIRRUS INCREASING
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN WARM ADV PATTERN. EXPECT QUITE RISE IN TEMPS
TODAY...LATEST TO SEE IT IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOR. WILL KEEP
PREV THINKING OF SOME 20S FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND MID 30S FAR
WEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES....ESP NW FCST AREA...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BLO ADVISORY. DID UPDATE WEATHER TRENDS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE. LOOKING AT GFS/NAM 12Z 925 MB
TEMOS FEEL WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND TONIGHT TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO FALL MUCH AND USING 12Z GFS FOR UPPER LEVEL TEMPS WILL
BRING MORE LIQUID THAN FROZEN LIQUID.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...WITH A SFC LOW
STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICKING UP TO
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERA. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
A WARMER AIR MASS BACK INTO THE REGION. WE SHOULD AGAIN GET INTO
THE 20S AND 30S EVEN WITH A COOL START THIS MORNING AND INCREASING
CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIGGING
FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ND. THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE
CONSISTENT TODAY ON PUTTING OUT SOME PRECIP TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. THE RAP IN
FACT HAS SOME PRECIP MOVING IN AS SOON AS LATE AFTERNOON. THINK
THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE TIME IT TAKES TO SATURATE AND
WILL KEEP POPS OUT UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. HAVE SOME 20-30 POPS
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE THE
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG WARM LAYER
ALOFT MOVING IN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SFC TEMPS IN THE
EVENING MAY ACTUALLY STILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS OFF SOME FREEZING RAIN IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT BUT WILL KEEP AN
EYE FOR SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
FRIDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN INTO MN...ALLOWING THE
SFC TROUGH TO MOVE EAST AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WITH THE WEST WINDS
THINK WE WILL SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN CLOUDS...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS
STILL WELL ABOVE ZERO C...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY MILD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND SOME SPOTS NEAR THE 40 MARK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ALL BRING A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO THE REGION...BUT STRUGGLE
ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP WHEN IT MOVES IN. THE ECMWF IS FASTER
THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS...AND THE 00Z RUN HAS COME IN
FURTHER WEST WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. THIS PUTS IT MORE SIMILAR TO
THE NAM WHICH IS FURTHEREAST WEST WITH DEFORMATION BAND PRECIP AND
IS THE STRONGEST WITH QPF. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS THE
MAIN PRECIP OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BLENDED SOLUTION...WHICH HAS THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP...SO WENT WITH SOME
LIGHT ICING AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE ESSENTIALLY REMAINS OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...PERHAPS RETROGRADES A BIT TROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
PATTERN INTENSIFIES THROUGH DAY 5 THEN DE AMPLIFIES THEREAFTER.
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WED. THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FASTER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.
HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR SUN AND INCREASED
TWO TO FOUR DEGREES FOR MON THROUGH WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND
POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FZRA THIS EVENING AT GFK AND
TVF IN THE 0 TO 6Z TIME FRAME THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS VERY POOR SO HAVE
EXCLUDED FROM TAF CURRENTLY. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS DRY LEVEL UNDER
8KFT AND SFC TEMPS...MAY JUST BE RAIN IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR. FARTHER
EAST AT BJI DID MENTION -SN OVERNIGHT AS SATURATION AND COVERAGE
INCREASE LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1029 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
PATCH OF STRATUS MOVING NORTHEAST AS EXPECTED EXITING FARGO AND
MOVING THROUGH MAHNOMEN AND FOSSTON. OTHERWISE CIRRUS INCREASING
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN WARM ADV PATTERN. EXPECT QUITE RISE IN TEMPS
TODAY...LATEST TO SEE IT IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOR. WILL KEEP
PREV THINKING OF SOME 20S FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND MID 30S FAR
WEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES....ESP NW FCST AREA...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BLO ADVISORY. DID UPDATE WEATHER TRENDS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE. LOOKING AT GFS/NAM 12Z 925 MB
TEMOS FEEL WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND TONIGHT TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO FALL MUCH AND USING 12Z GFS FOR UPPER LEVEL TEMPS WILL
BRING MORE LIQUID THAN FROZEN LIQUID.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...WITH A SFC LOW
STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICKING UP TO
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERA. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
A WARMER AIR MASS BACK INTO THE REGION. WE SHOULD AGAIN GET INTO
THE 20S AND 30S EVEN WITH A COOL START THIS MORNING AND INCREASING
CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIGGING
FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ND. THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE
CONSISTENT TODAY ON PUTTING OUT SOME PRECIP TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. THE RAP IN
FACT HAS SOME PRECIP MOVING IN AS SOON AS LATE AFTERNOON. THINK
THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE TIME IT TAKES TO SATURATE AND
WILL KEEP POPS OUT UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. HAVE SOME 20-30 POPS
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE THE
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG WARM LAYER
ALOFT MOVING IN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SFC TEMPS IN THE
EVENING MAY ACTUALLY STILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS OFF SOME FREEZING RAIN IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT BUT WILL KEEP AN
EYE FOR SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
FRIDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN INTO MN...ALLOWING THE
SFC TROUGH TO MOVE EAST AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WITH THE WEST WINDS
THINK WE WILL SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN CLOUDS...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS
STILL WELL ABOVE ZERO C...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY MILD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND SOME SPOTS NEAR THE 40 MARK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ALL BRING A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO THE REGION...BUT STRUGGLE
ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP WHEN IT MOVES IN. THE ECMWF IS FASTER
THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS...AND THE 00Z RUN HAS COME IN
FURTHER WEST WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. THIS PUTS IT MORE SIMILAR TO
THE NAM WHICH IS FURTHEREAST WEST WITH DEFORMATION BAND PRECIP AND
IS THE STRONGEST WITH QPF. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS THE
MAIN PRECIP OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BLENDED SOLUTION...WHICH HAS THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP...SO WENT WITH SOME
LIGHT ICING AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE ESSENTIALLY REMAINS OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...PERHAPS RETROGRADES A BIT TROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
PATTERN INTENSIFIES THROUGH DAY 5 THEN DE AMPLIFIES THEREAFTER.
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WED. THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FASTER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.
HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR SUN AND INCREASED
TWO TO FOUR DEGREES FOR MON THROUGH WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
SOME MVFR/IFR STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND MAY
AFFECT THE KFAR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS
ARE VFR. THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS...BUT THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CLIMB TO THE 15
TO 20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS AT SOME SITES. WINDS
WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT WILL STILL
BE ABOVE 12 KTS. THE MODELS TRY AND BRING IN SOME STRATUS DURING
THE LATER PART OF THE PERIOD. FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED KBJI WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AND KEEP EVERYWHERE ELSE VFR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
646 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...THE HRRR HAS A
DECENT HANDLE ON IT AND TAKES THE CLOUDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO
REFLECT. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK THEY WILL BE AROUND ENOUGH TO
AFFECT TEMPS BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...WITH A SFC LOW
STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICKING UP TO
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERA. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
A WARMER AIR MASS BACK INTO THE REGION. WE SHOULD AGAIN GET INTO
THE 20S AND 30S EVEN WITH A COOL START THIS MORNING AND INCREASING
CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIGGING
FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ND. THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE
CONSISTENT TODAY ON PUTTING OUT SOME PRECIP TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. THE RAP IN
FACT HAS SOME PRECIP MOVING IN AS SOON AS LATE AFTERNOON. THINK
THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE TIME IT TAKES TO SATURATE AND
WILL KEEP POPS OUT UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. HAVE SOME 20-30 POPS
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE THE
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG WARM LAYER
ALOFT MOVING IN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SFC TEMPS IN THE
EVENING MAY ACTUALLY STILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS OFF SOME FREEZING RAIN IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT BUT WILL KEEP AN
EYE FOR SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
FRIDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN INTO MN...ALLOWING THE
SFC TROUGH TO MOVE EAST AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WITH THE WEST WINDS
THINK WE WILL SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN CLOUDS...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS
STILL WELL ABOVE ZERO C...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY MILD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND SOME SPOTS NEAR THE 40 MARK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ALL BRING A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO THE REGION...BUT STRUGGLE
ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP WHEN IT MOVES IN. THE ECMWF IS FASTER
THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS...AND THE 00Z RUN HAS COME IN
FURTHER WEST WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. THIS PUTS IT MORE SIMILAR TO
THE NAM WHICH IS FURTHEREAST WEST WITH DEFORMATION BAND PRECIP AND
IS THE STRONGEST WITH QPF. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS THE
MAIN PRECIP OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BLENDED SOLUTION...WHICH HAS THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP...SO WENT WITH SOME
LIGHT ICING AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE ESSENTIALLY REMAINS OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...PERHAPS RETROGRADES A BIT TROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
PATTERN INTENSIFIES THROUGH DAY 5 THEN DE AMPLIFIES THEREAFTER.
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WED. THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FASTER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.
HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR SUN AND INCREASED
TWO TO FOUR DEGREES FOR MON THROUGH WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
SOME MVFR/IFR STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND MAY
AFFECT THE KFAR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS
ARE VFR. THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS...BUT THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CLIMB TO THE 15
TO 20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS AT SOME SITES. WINDS
WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT WILL STILL
BE ABOVE 12 KTS. THE MODELS TRY AND BRING IN SOME STRATUS DURING
THE LATER PART OF THE PERIOD. FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED KBJI WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AND KEEP EVERYWHERE ELSE VFR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...WITH A SFC LOW
STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICKING UP TO
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERA. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
A WARMER AIR MASS BACK INTO THE REGION. WE SHOULD AGAIN GET INTO
THE 20S AND 30S EVEN WITH A COOL START THIS MORNING AND INCREASING
CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIGGING
FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ND. THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE
CONSISTENT TODAY ON PUTTING OUT SOME PRECIP TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. THE RAP IN
FACT HAS SOME PRECIP MOVING IN AS SOON AS LATE AFTERNOON. THINK
THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE TIME IT TAKES TO SATURATE AND
WILL KEEP POPS OUT UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. HAVE SOME 20-30 POPS
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE THE
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG WARM LAYER
ALOFT MOVING IN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SFC TEMPS IN THE
EVENING MAY ACTUALLY STILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS OFF SOME FREEZING RAIN IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT BUT WILL KEEP AN
EYE FOR SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
FRIDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN INTO MN...ALLOWING THE
SFC TROUGH TO MOVE EAST AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WITH THE WEST WINDS
THINK WE WILL SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN CLOUDS...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS
STILL WELL ABOVE ZERO C...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY MILD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND SOME SPOTS NEAR THE 40 MARK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ALL BRING A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO THE REGION...BUT STRUGGLE
ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP WHEN IT MOVES IN. THE ECMWF IS FASTER
THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS...AND THE 00Z RUN HAS COME IN
FURTHER WEST WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. THIS PUTS IT MORE SIMILAR TO
THE NAM WHICH IS FURTHEREAST WEST WITH DEFORMATION BAND PRECIP AND
IS THE STRONGEST WITH QPF. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS THE
MAIN PRECIP OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BLENDED SOLUTION...WHICH HAS THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP...SO WENT WITH SOME
LIGHT ICING AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE ESSENTIALLY REMAINS OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...PERHAPS RETROGRADES A BIT TROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
PATTERN INTENSIFIES THROUGH DAY 5 THEN DE AMPLIFIES THEREAFTER.
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WED. THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FASTER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.
HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR SUN AND INCREASED
TWO TO FOUR DEGREES FOR MON THROUGH WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. CIRRUS WILL INVADE THE REGION
THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING...AND
GUSTY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
932 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
OFFER MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT. A CLIPPER WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A MESOSCALE BAND OF SNOW STRETCHING FROM NEAR FORT KNOX KENTUCKY
TO CHILLICOTHE OHIO HAS PRODUCED ACCUMULATIONS WELL BEYOND
FORECAST VALUES. IN THE ILN FORECAST AREA...THERE ARE A FEW
SPOTS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER THAT HAVE LIKELY SEEN AROUND
TWO INCHES OF SNOW ALREADY...BUT PRECIPITATION IS RAPIDLY
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...IN THE PORTSMOUTH AREA...SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS. BASED ON LOCAL REPORTS...IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME
LOCATIONS IN THESE COUNTIES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING TWO
INCHES...WITH MORE SNOW STILL TO COME. THUS...IN COORDINATION WITH
NWS CHARLESTON WV...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. STORM
TOTAL SNOW GRIDS WERE INCREASED AGAIN...NOW INTO THE TWO-TO-THREE
INCH RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
A FORECAST UPDATE WAS NECESSARY THIS EVENING AFTER EXAMINING
RECENT HRRR RUNS...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS OVER
KENTUCKY...AND RADAR TRENDS. THERE IS A SHARP EDGE TO THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS NOT IMMEDIATELY EVIDENT IF
VIEWING A LARGE-SCALE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGE (WHICH CAPTURES TOO MUCH
VIRGA). LOOKING AT JUST THE KILN WSR-88D...THE CONVEX APPEARANCE
OF THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS AN ARTIFACT. ECHOES BEING OBSERVED
FURTHER FROM THE RADAR INCLUDE VIRGA SAMPLED AT HIGHER LEVELS.
CLOSE TO THE RADAR...AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...IT IS MORE EVIDENT THAT
THE NORTHEASTERNMOST EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS RATHER SHARP.
THIS EDGE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN OWEN COUNTY THROUGH
NORTHERN HIGHLAND COUNTY...AND IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH
ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD MOTION.
THE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST INVOLVED PRECIPITATION TYPE...AS
VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR...AND EARLY SNOW
ACCUMULATION REPORTS OVER KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN AT THE HIGHER END OF
WHAT WAS EXPECTED. A HEAVY BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING
ITS WAY GRADUALLY NORTHEAST...AND HAS NOW ENTERED THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ILN COUNTIES (LEWIS KY AND SCIOTO OH). THOUGH THE
MORE INTENSE ECHOES ARE PROBABLY OVERDONE DUE TO A LITTLE BIT OF
MELTING...SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THIS NECESSITATED AN INCREASE IN THE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION FORECAST. ALSO FACTORING IN SOME CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
LIGHT SNOW FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HOURS (UNTIL AROUND 2
AM)...SNOWFALL COULD APPROACH TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
AN ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED BUT ULTIMATELY NOT OPTED FOR...AS THIS
SNOW WILL BE VERY WET AND SLUSHY...AND ANTECEDENT GROUND
CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY WARM (ROAD TEMPS IN THE 40S).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED WEAK VORT
DROPPING THRU SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING. WEAK SFC TROF TO WORK SE THRU
THE FA TOWARD EVENING. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF MAINLY
SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE FAR NORTH. SATURDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS SAT
NIGHT WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE WORKING ACRS THE REGION. WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. MODEL SOLNS DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. GENERAL TREND OF SOLN/S IS
A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK.
NAM HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND TAKES THE SFC WAVE THRU
THE SRN I-70 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTN. THE GFS 06Z RUN WAS A LTL SOUTH
OF THIS TRACK AND NOW (12Z RUN) HAS SHIFTED THE SFC LOW TRACK TO
NEAR CVG BY 00Z MONDAY WITH IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF TRACK. MODELS ARE
TYPICALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH THESE DIGGING SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...HAVE
GONE WITH A BLENDED GFS/ECMWF SOLN AND WILL BRING CATEGORICAL POPS
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE ALL SNOW ACRS THE NORTH WITH A MIX...CHANGING TO
SNOW ACRS THE CENTRAL AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS THE FAR SOUTH.
IT IS EARLY WITH THIS BEING A 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT BUT AT THIS
TIME HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM I-70 ON NORTH
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS NORTH. 18Z RUNS ARE TRENDING EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH STORM TRACK...SO THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER S.
HAVE ADJUSTED SUNDAY/S HIGHS A LTL COLDER RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S
N TO THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE UPPER TEENS
NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING EAST ON
MONDAY. KEPT POPS BELOW PRECIP THRESHOLD ON TUESDAY WHEN A MINOR
DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO AFFECT ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY OCCUR THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA BY GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ARE PROGGED TO RETURN ON FRIDAY.
CHILLY HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ARE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
WHEN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY PUSH HIGHS UP TO
AROUND 40.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
CINCINNATI AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES THIS EVENING. IT WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW FLURRIES AT THE AIRPORTS...BUT IT IS
MORE LIKELY THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS (AROUND 1500-2500 FEET) IS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA. THESE CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...REACHING THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. BY
MORNING...SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED...LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER MVFR CLOUD DECK EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ100.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
645 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
OFFER MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT. A CLIPPER WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A FORECAST UPDATE WAS NECESSARY THIS EVENING AFTER EXAMINING
RECENT HRRR RUNS...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS OVER
KENTUCKY...AND RADAR TRENDS. THERE IS A SHARP EDGE TO THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS NOT IMMEDIATELY EVIDENT IF
VIEWING A LARGE-SCALE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGE (WHICH CAPTURES TOO MUCH
VIRGA). LOOKING AT JUST THE KILN WSR-88D...THE CONVEX APPEARANCE
OF THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS AN ARTIFACT. ECHOES BEING OBSERVED
FURTHER FROM THE RADAR INCLUDE VIRGA SAMPLED AT HIGHER LEVELS.
CLOSE TO THE RADAR...AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...IT IS MORE EVIDENT THAT
THE NORTHEASTERNMOST EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS RATHER SHARP.
THIS EDGE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN OWEN COUNTY THROUGH
NORTHERN HIGHLAND COUNTY...AND IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH
ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD MOTION.
THE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST INVOLVED PRECIPITATION TYPE...AS
VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR...AND EARLY SNOW
ACCUMULATION REPORTS OVER KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN AT THE HIGHER END OF
WHAT WAS EXPECTED. A HEAVY BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING
ITS WAY GRADUALLY NORTHEAST...AND HAS NOW ENTERED THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ILN COUNTIES (LEWIS KY AND SCIOTO OH). THOUGH THE
MORE INTENSE ECHOES ARE PROBABLY OVERDONE DUE TO A LITTLE BIT OF
MELTING...SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THIS NECESSITATED AN INCREASE IN THE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION FORECAST. ALSO FACTORING IN SOME CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
LIGHT SNOW FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HOURS (UNTIL AROUND 2
AM)...SNOWFALL COULD APPROACH TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
AN ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED BUT ULTIMATELY NOT OPTED FOR...AS THIS
SNOW WILL BE VERY WET AND SLUSHY...AND ANTECEDENT GROUND
CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY WARM (ROAD TEMPS IN THE 40S).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED WEAK VORT
DROPPING THRU SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING. WEAK SFC TROF TO WORK SE THRU
THE FA TOWARD EVENING. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF MAINLY
SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE FAR NORTH. SATURDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS SAT
NIGHT WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE WORKING ACRS THE REGION. WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. MODEL SOLNS DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. GENERAL TREND OF SOLN/S IS
A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK.
NAM HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND TAKES THE SFC WAVE THRU
THE SRN I-70 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTN. THE GFS 06Z RUN WAS A LTL SOUTH
OF THIS TRACK AND NOW (12Z RUN) HAS SHIFTED THE SFC LOW TRACK TO
NEAR CVG BY 00Z MONDAY WITH IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF TRACK. MODELS ARE
TYPICALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH THESE DIGGING SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...HAVE
GONE WITH A BLENDED GFS/ECMWF SOLN AND WILL BRING CATEGORICAL POPS
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE ALL SNOW ACRS THE NORTH WITH A MIX...CHANGING TO
SNOW ACRS THE CENTRAL AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS THE FAR SOUTH.
IT IS EARLY WITH THIS BEING A 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT BUT AT THIS
TIME HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM I-70 ON NORTH
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS NORTH. 18Z RUNS ARE TRENDING EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH STORM TRACK...SO THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER S.
HAVE ADJUSTED SUNDAY/S HIGHS A LTL COLDER RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S
N TO THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE UPPER TEENS
NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING EAST ON
MONDAY. KEPT POPS BELOW PRECIP THRESHOLD ON TUESDAY WHEN A MINOR
DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO AFFECT ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY OCCUR THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA BY GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ARE PROGGED TO RETURN ON FRIDAY.
CHILLY HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ARE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
WHEN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY PUSH HIGHS UP TO
AROUND 40.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
CINCINNATI AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES THIS EVENING. IT WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW FLURRIES AT THE AIRPORTS...BUT IT IS
MORE LIKELY THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS (AROUND 1500-2500 FEET) IS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA. THESE CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...REACHING THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. BY
MORNING...SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED...LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER MVFR CLOUD DECK EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
321 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
STRATUS SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO ERODE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS 925 MB WINDS TRANSITION TO A
DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALL MODELS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS...THOUGH
DO LINGER THE CLOUDS IN OUR FAR EAST INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WILL HAVE A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
OVER YESTERDAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
NEAR 40 THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND WEST...TAPERING BACK TO LOWER
30S FROM EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
INTO THE SPENCER/STORM LAKE CORRIDOR WHERE CLOUDS MAY HANG A LITTLE
LONGER AND THERMAL PROFILES ARE COOLER.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH. IN RESPONSE...IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS MAINLY MID AND UPPER 20S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM AND
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
FOCUSED ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LOW-LVL WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING THE
THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH. BARRING ANY SUBSTANCIAL IMPACT FROM INCREASING MID-UPR
LVL CLOUDS...MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 40S. GFS REMAINS THE
MOST SATURATED SOLUTION AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH...PRODUCING LIGHT QPF EAST OF I-29. GIVEN TRAJECTORY AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW...DRIER SOLUTIONS MAY BE MORE CORRECT.
REGARDLESS...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO HEAR OF A FEW SPRINKLES.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CREST THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS GUIDANCE HAS DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER APART
TONIGHT WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE WAVE...BUT GENERALLY
STILL ADVERTISE A WEAK AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM. GIVEN THE 150
KNOT JET STREAK PUSHING THIS WAVE SOUTHEAST...AND LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THAT JET PLANTED NEARBY...LIGHT QPF LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
SEEMS LIKELY...BUT WHETHER IT IS NEARBY OR JUST NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CWA REMAINS IN QUESTION. GIVEN TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW
WOULD BE EXPECTED.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BROAD WESTERN RIDGE WILL TRY TO
EXPAND EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA.
IN FACT...THE WARMEST READINGS MAY ARRIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE DEGREE OF WARMING IS IN QUESTION. 925MB TEMPS
OFF THE GFS ARE ONLY IN THE 0 TO +3 RANGE...WHILE THE ECMWF AND EVEN
THE GEM ARE MUCH MUCH WARMER...WITH INCREDIBLE 925MB TEMPS OF +10
TO +13C! IT IS A BIT EARLY TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE DEGREE OF
POTENTIAL WARMTH ON DAY 7 GIVEN HOW DIFFICULT IT CAN BE TO
MAXIMIZE THIS TYPE OF POTENTIAL GIVEN MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015
SWATH OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DISSIPATING FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS WORKING INTO THE REGION. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE NAM HOLDING ONTO LOW CEILINGS INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WHILE
THE GFS AND HRRR SUPPORTS THE DRYING SOLUTION. AM STILL FAVORING
THE DRYING SOLUTION AS SKIES BEGIN CLEARING JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BE TURNING LIGHT THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AT
THE SURFACE BUT SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1102 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015
CURRENTLY...STILL HAVE SOME UPPER QG FORCING MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. UNTIL THIS GETS TOTALLY
THROUGH...WE ARE RUNNING THE RISK OF AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
LIKELY WINDING DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
DUE TO TEMPERATURES HOVERING ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
AT MOST LOCATIONS...SNOWFALL HAS BEEN HAVING TROUBLE STICKING DUE TO
THE LIGHT RATES. OTHERWISE ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR SOME OF
OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND THE CHAMBERLAIN AREA. THIS IS BECAUSE
THE GFS 925MB RH FIELDS ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THAT
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE WINDS OFF THE SURFACE BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF STRATUS AT
THIS TIME. THEREFORE IF THEIR STRATUS DOES CLEAR OUT AT THAT TIME OF
DAY...SOME FOG COULD FORM. BUT THE STRATUS FIELD MAY STILL BE
ABUNDANT EAST OF THE JAMES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY SO LEFT
THE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THOSE AREAS. THAT SAID...THE 925MB RH DOES
DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING ON THURSDAY EAST OF THE JAMES
SUGGESTING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. THE NAM LOW LEVEL
RH FIELDS KEEPS EVERYONE SOPPED IN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...AND
THAT WAS NOT FOLLOWED NOTING THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND DIRECTION.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...TEMPERED THE FALL IN READINGS THIS EVENING
FROM MANY GUIDANCE VALUES DUE TO CLOUD COVER. OUR LOWS TONIGHT ARE
MOST CLOSELY CORRELATED WITH BIAS CORRECTED MOS VALUES WHICH KEEP
TEMPERATURES PRETTY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH A MILD AIR FLOW
ON THURSDAY...ALSO FOLLOWED THE WARMER MOS VALUES FOR THAT PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY THE BIAS CORRECTED VALUES WHICH PLACES HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY FOR JANUARY
STANDARDS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE RIDGING BUILD IN ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY...PUTTING OUR CWA BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN. ONE WEAK WAVE MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE WILL SEE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP...AND GIVEN
RECENT TEMPERATURES...SEE NO REASON NOT TO STAY WITH THE WARMER
GUIDANCE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DEGREE OF WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A DECENT SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. BUT THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND
GFS ARE BOTH WARM...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW COVER...STAYED WITH
THE WARMER GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS FOLLOWING THE WARMER
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE YIELDS HIGHS IN THE 40S FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL BE MILD AS WELL...GENERALLY 20S AND 30S.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH A WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW IMPACTING THE AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM AND A BIT WEAKER THOUGH.
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE END UP REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THUS QPF
AMOUNTS SEEM TO BE TRENDING DOWN. WITH THE TRACK TO OUR NORTH...LOW
LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THUS
THINKING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SNOW. BEST CHANCE OF A LIGHT COATING
SEEMS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA CLOSER TO THE COLDER AIR...BUT
EVEN THERE ANY ACCUMULATION MAY BE DIFFICULT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS THOUGH IN CASE THE STRENGTH OR TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
CHANGES. GIVEN THE WEAKER NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG...ALTHOUGH WILL STILL
BE BLUSTERY. STILL NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THREATS
IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015
SWATH OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DISSIPATING FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS WORKING INTO THE REGION. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE NAM HOLDING ONTO LOW CEILINGS INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WHILE
THE GFS AND HRRR SUPPORTS THE DRYING SOLUTION. AM STILL FAVORING
THE DRYING SOLUTION AS SKIES BEGIN CLEARING JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BE TURNING LIGHT THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AT
THE SURFACE BUT SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
306 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
MOVE SEWD THROUGH SRN NEW MEXICO. THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH /FROM SRN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/ PRODUCING THE LAST BIT OF LIFT
ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTL PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. 18Z WRF-NAM AND
MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL SEWD IN TIME. SOME MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/2 INCH REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA THAT HAS
BEEN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOWFALL FROM LUBBOCK TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...SO CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY SHOULD SUFFICE.
PRECIP LIKELY TO COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF THE FAR SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA WHERE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW END CHANCE MENTION ATTM.
SOME CLEARING EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE BY SUNRISE. THAT CLEARING
ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES COMBINED WITH SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
THERE TO DROP TO OR BELOW COLD END OF MOS GUIDANCE WHILE FARTHER
EAST LOW TEMPS NEAR A MOS BLEND MORE LIKELY. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL BE TRICKY. INSOLATION AND MODEST WEST WIND TO BE COUNTERACTED
ACROSS THE NWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA BY THE SNOW FIELD. WILL
CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE THERE AND LEAN CLOSER TO MOS FURTHER
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND A STEADY WARMUP UNDERNEATH INCREASING
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ALOFT WITH RIDGING DOMINATING THE WESTERN CONUS
AND TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING POINTS EAST. ASIDE FROM SOME SCATTERED
CIRRUS SATURDAY...OWING TO ENERGY ALOFT BEING SHUNTED SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF
LOW...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN THE OFFING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 40S/50S SATURDAY AND NEAR 50 IN VICINITY OF
LINGERING SNOWPACK IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE TO MID 60S IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY BRING A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT BY MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE DIVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS
LOOKS TO BE IN STORE LOCALLY. FURTHER WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S
SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MAY SEE A COOLDOWN BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MID-LATE WEEK IF
PACIFIC MOISTURE CAN ADVECT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SERIES OF PROGGED
DISTURBANCES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 8 36 14 41 / 20 0 0 0
TULIA 12 38 22 43 / 30 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 15 37 23 46 / 30 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 14 38 22 47 / 50 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 16 39 23 48 / 50 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 19 38 25 49 / 60 10 0 0
BROWNFIELD 18 40 23 49 / 60 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 23 45 29 55 / 30 0 0 0
SPUR 22 43 27 53 / 70 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 27 47 28 55 / 70 10 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ021-
022-027-028-033-034-039>042.
&&
$$
07/31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1021 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT HAS WORKED ITS WAY FROM THE COAST
TO NEAR A KBPT TO KVCT LINE AT 9 AM. THE RAP13 AND HRRR BOTH WERE
DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND BOTH
FORECAST THE MODERATE RAINFALL IN THE NORTH TO SLOWLY LESSEN IN
INTENSITY AS THE MODERATE RAINFALL AREA INCREASES TOWARD THE
COAST.
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY WAFFLE A BIT THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING BACK TOWARD
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL
PROBABLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND ADD A BIT OF
COMPLEXITY TO THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015/
AVIATION...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TODAY AS RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE GENERALLY
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE BULK OF RAIN WILL MOVE
OFF TO OUR EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER SOME ACTIVITY ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ELEVATED AND POTENTIALLY VERY GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME MORE OUT OF THE NORTH TONIGHT
AS THE LOW EDGES OFF TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST.
42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS CAUSING OVERRUNNING ACROSS
THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVED TO THE
COAST YESTERDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER
FLOW. RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF IT. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS AND APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALONG THE COAST WINDS
WILL BE QUITE BREEZY THIS EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
TIER OF COUNTIES THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALTHOUGH FAR
INLAND REACHES OF BRAZORIA AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES MAY SEE WINDS
REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL EXIT TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR
THE EVENT WILL AVERAGE AROUND 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED TOTALS
OF AROUND 3 INCHES. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND EXTENDING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN UPPER RIDGING ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS. 38
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY
IN THE EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE. TODAY...WATER LEVELS MAY EVENTUALLY RISE UP TO 1.5 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING EAST WINDS. WATER
FROM WAVE RUN-UP MAY APPROACH THE DUNES AT HIGH TIDE. LEVELS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ON
THROUGH. LIGHTER WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 51 40 48 35 58 / 100 50 40 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 56 42 49 35 59 / 100 60 30 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 44 49 39 55 / 100 60 30 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
JACKSON...MATAGORDA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1042 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A
VARIETY OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN TO AREAS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AS THE DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EST FRIDAY...
WINTER BE LEAVING WEATHER ADVISORIES INTACT WITH THIS ISSUANCE AND
CONTINUE THEM THROUGH 10AM SATURDAY MORNING.
00Z/7PM SOUNDING FROM RNK HAD A WARM NOSE AT 3500-4000FT AGL OF
39F/4C. REST OF THE SOUNDING BELOW 2500FT AGL WAS BELOW FREEZING.
SO LITTLE TO NO SLEET OR SNOW EXPECTED AT THIS POINT UNTIL SURFACE
LOW MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST BRINGING DEEPER COLD AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. LARGEST
ICING AMOUNTS STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM FLOYD
COUNTY AND BENT MOUNTAIN NORTH TO MONTEBELLO.
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SINCE 9PM AS THE DRY SLOT HAS ADVANCED INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. BUT LOCAL WRF AS WELL AS HRRR KEEP LOW LEVELS WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST UNTIL 09Z/4AM. NOT AS MUCH ACCUMULATION OF ICE IN THE
AREAS BELOW FREEZING IN THE DRY SLOT BUT STILL UPSLOPE AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF ROANOKE.
03Z/10PM MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED BEST PRESSURE FALLS HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA. THE PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND WILL MOVE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE THE LOW IS OFF THE
COAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST...EASTERN UPSLOPE ENDS
AND WESTERN UPSLOPE BEGINS. COLDER AIR WILL COME IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW...CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
THE REST OF SATURDAY WILL SEE LINGERING FLURRIES FOR THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE RIDGE...AND
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR ALL. WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPING EAST
OF THE RIDGE TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MIDDLE 40S FOR
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...
NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL BE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEAN LONG WAVE
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALIGN N-S OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW. FIRST
DISTURBANCE...OR ALBERTA CLIPPER...WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...MOVING FROM IOWA SUNDAY MORNING TO NORTHERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN PASS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A DISTINCT WARM NOSE...850 H TEMPS OF +3
DEG C...WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES OVERHEAD EARLY
MONDAY. AS SUCH...ANY PRECIP THAT ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE RAIN. ONCE THE WAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...THE WARM NOSE WOULD
THEN BE SQUASHED WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL RETURNING CLOSES ENOUGH TO
THE GROUND TO SUPPORT A P-TYPE OF SNOW.
MODELS MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST QPF TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE CYCLONE. THIS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL PRIMARILY BE
NORTH OF OUR CWA...WV...NRN VA...AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA. EVEN
SO...THERE IS STILL THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA...THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...AND ALONG OUR FAVORED
WESTERN SLOPES FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF NC. ATTM...THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...BUT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE FOR NORTHWESTERN
GREENBRIER PENDING THE TRACK OF THE SECOND REINFORCING SHORT WAVE
EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EAST COAST TUESDAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND LIFT OUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROF. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A LITTLE WETTER THAN ECMWF WITH MOUNTAINS
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
WITH READINGS FROM THE THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE
THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS/SNOW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE PIEDMONT. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND WEDNESDAY BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE UPPER 20S. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALLOWED FOR
ISOLATED POPS IN THE WEST FRIDAY...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST FRIDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH IFR/LIFR
PREVAILING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
COMPLICATED PTYPE SCENARIO UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINTRY
MIXTURE OF RAIN...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WITH POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOR KLYH AND KDAN...EXPECTING WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT TO
CHANGE PCPN OVER TO ALL RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AT
KLYH...PILOTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
KBCB AND KROA WILL HOLD ON TO SOME COLDER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
HOLD ON A BIT LONGER TONIGHT. WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOME SNIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AT KBCB WITH JUST A PLAIN DRIZZLE AT KROA.
AT KBLF...COMBINATION OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
KLWB WILL SEE THE MOST FROZEN/FREEZING PCPN AS THE COLDER AIR
STAYS AROUND THE LONGEST.
AS THE LOW CENTER STARTS TO PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL
PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TRAILING BAND OF SYNOPTIC PCPN
WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE WEST TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS AND STAYING IN PCPN
THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...AND VISIBILITIES. MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCES ON WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....PERSISTENT UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SUB VFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING MORE A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SNOW
TO THE ENTIRE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERALLY MVFR TO
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW THERE CONFINED TO MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES MAY LINGER IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
VAZ010>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-
002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...KK/MBS/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
843 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY
DUE TO THE LACK OF IT OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF MINNESOTA.
00Z RAOB DATA FROM MPX...ABR AND BIS ALL HAD 925MB DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS THAT WERE QUITE A BIT DRIER / 3 C OR SO / THAN THE
23.12Z/18Z GFS/NAM. AS SUCH...THOSE MODELS SUGGESTED TOO MUCH LOW
STRATUS ACROSS MINNESOTA. THE NEW 24.00Z NAM...NOW THAT IT HAS THE
RAOB DATA IN IT...HAS GREATLY DRIED OUT ITS 925MB RH FIELD. IN
FACT...THE 925MB RH FIELD LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE 23.21-22Z RAP RUNS
THAT WERE USED FOR THE AVIATION FORECASTS. IN ESSENCE...FOR MUCH
OF TONIGHT INTO MID-DAY SATURDAY...HAVE GREATLY REDUCED CLOUD
COVER ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 52. ADDITIONALLY...THE CLOUD THAT IS
COMING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SECTION LOOKS TO SCATTER
OR CLEAR OUT AROUND DAYBREAK...WHICH HAS BEEN INCORPORATED INTO
THE SKY FORECAST.
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF WINDS
AND AREAS RECEIVING CLOUDS TO HELP PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
FIRST FORECAST CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AS FLOW
TURNS NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS STRATUS INTO THE REGION. CURRENTLY THE
STRATUS DECK IS WORKING SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH
CLOUD BASES AROUND 1500 FT. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
SREF VISIBILITY PROBS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY TO
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND ACROSS THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA. IF THE
FOG DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING SO HAVE NOT
ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST.
THE NEXT FEATURE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT AND DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM
HAVE SHIFTED THE HEAVIER BAND SOUTHWEST NOW...IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE NAM IS STICKING TO A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION
PLACING THE HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
SNOW...CONFIDENCE ON LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE A 3-5 INCH BAND IS
NOT. MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTESTATE 94 SHOULD SEE
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH AN ENHANCED BAND POSSIBLE. WHERE
THIS BAND SETS UP A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. IF THE SOUTHERLY TRACK
HOLDS...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY NOT SEE ANY SNOW. THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST THERE COULD BE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. A LITTLE BIT TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN
AMOUNTS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT. A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THEN FINALLY SHIFTS
EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SOME MILDER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY REACHING THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS BRIEF WARM-UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE AIR BACK INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 843 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
DID AN UPDATE TO THE RST TAF TO NOW KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY VFR
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUD DECK IS APPROACHING RST NOW...BUT ITS
WESTERN EDGE IS NEAR RST AND HEADING EAST...SO THERE MAY ONLY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW UNTIL 4Z WHERE AN MVFR DECK CAN FORM. AFTER
THAT...DRIER AIR TO THE WEST MOVES IN TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR. TAF FOR
LSE STILL ON TRACK WITH MVFR CEILINGS NOW IN PLACE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 534 PM...
A MORE TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY BECAUSE
THE LOW CLOUDS HEADING TOWARDS THE TAF SITES ARE NOT AS EXPANSIVE
ACROSS MINNESOTA AS MODELS HAVE FORECASTED THEM TO BE. IN
FACT...THEY ARE JUST APPROACHING MSP AND EAU...WITH MSP ABOUT THE
WESTERN EDGE. WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT...BELIEVE
THESE WILL STILL GET TO THE TAF SITES...BUT HAVE HAD TO DELAY THE
ARRIVAL A FEW HOURS. NIGHTTIME COOLING SHOULD HELP TO LOWER
CEILINGS AS WELL...KNOCKING RST DOWN TO IFR TOWARDS 08Z. DRIER AIR
PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN...FLOWING IN ON
NORTHWEST WINDS...SHOULD THEN PUSH OUT THE SECTION OF LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE TAF SITES AROUND 12-13Z...PER THE RAP MODEL WHICH HAS
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE LOW CLOUD SITUATION. FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO STAY MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...
THOUGH THEY COULD TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE
DAY. IF THEY DO...IT APPEARS CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR AIDED BY
DAYTIME HEATING.
REGARDING WINDS...EXPECT THEM TO STAY IN THE 5-15 KT SPEED
RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHEST AT RST. A VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST IS PLANNED THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY A BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE DAKOTAS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
534 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
FIRST FORECAST CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AS FLOW
TURNS NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS STRATUS INTO THE REGION. CURRENTLY THE
STRATUS DECK IS WORKING SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH
CLOUD BASES AROUND 1500 FT. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
SREF VISIBILITY PROBS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY TO
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND ACROSS THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA. IF THE
FOG DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING SO HAVE NOT
ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST.
THE NEXT FEATURE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT AND DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM
HAVE SHIFTED THE HEAVIER BAND SOUTHWEST NOW...IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE NAM IS STICKING TO A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION
PLACING THE HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
SNOW...CONFIDENCE ON LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE A 3-5 INCH BAND IS
NOT. MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTESTATE 94 SHOULD SEE
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH AN ENHANCED BAND POSSIBLE. WHERE
THIS BAND SETS UP A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. IF THE SOUTHERLY TRACK
HOLDS...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY NOT SEE ANY SNOW. THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST THERE COULD BE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. A LITTLE BIT TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN
AMOUNTS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT. A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THEN FINALLY SHIFTS
EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SOME MILDER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY REACHING THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS BRIEF WARM-UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE AIR BACK INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
A MORE TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY BECAUSE
THE LOW CLOUDS HEADING TOWARDS THE TAF SITES ARE NOT AS EXPANSIVE
ACROSS MINNESOTA AS MODELS HAVE FORECASTED THEM TO BE. IN
FACT...THEY ARE JUST APPROACHING MSP AND EAU...WITH MSP ABOUT THE
WESTERN EDGE. WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT...BELIEVE
THESE WILL STILL GET TO THE TAF SITES...BUT HAVE HAD TO DELAY THE
ARRIVAL A FEW HOURS. NIGHTTIME COOLING SHOULD HELP TO LOWER
CEILINGS AS WELL...KNOCKING RST DOWN TO IFR TOWARDS 08Z. DRIER AIR
PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN...FLOWING IN ON
NORTHWEST WINDS...SHOULD THEN PUSH OUT THE SECTION OF LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE TAF SITES AROUND 12-13Z...PER THE RAP MODEL WHICH HAS
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE LOW CLOUD SITUATION. FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO STAY MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...
THOUGH THEY COULD TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE
DAY. IF THEY DO...IT APPEARS CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR AIDED BY
DAYTIME HEATING.
REGARDING WINDS...EXPECT THEM TO STAY IN THE 5-15 KT SPEED
RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHEST AT RST. A VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST IS PLANNED THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY A BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE DAKOTAS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
503 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
TRANQUIL WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS BEING THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
DAKOTAS. GOES FOG IMAGERY SHOWING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER IA/WI AND
ERN DAKOTAS/NEB. SOME CLEARING IS OUT THERE ACROSS WRN MN BUT
THIS HAS STRUGGLED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS OVER THE PAST HOURS.
DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA CLOUD IS NOW MOVING EAST AND RIGHT IN THE HEART
OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS FROM KINL-KLBF.
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT THROUGH AND TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
RAPIDLY BACKING THE FLOW TO W/SW BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING TO
BRING THE DAKOTAS CLOUD TOWARD THE AREA. SO...IT APPEARS SOME
BREAKS WILL WORK IN...BUT ALSO MORE CLOUD. 925MB FLOW FROM THE
W/SW INCREASING TO 40 KTS TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS MOVING
NORTHEAST AND PROVIDE AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF CLEARING FROM
THE SW. SO...HAVE TRENDED SOME SLOW PARTIAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST
TODAY...AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT /PER BROAD 22.03Z SREF AND MESO
MODEL CEILING FORECAST TRENDS/. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THIS
EVENING IF CLEARING IS PRESENT BUT INCREASING WIND FLOW SHOULD
STOP THAT FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERALL HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES THROUGH SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ENERGY CRASHING ONTO CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST AT 06Z WITH A MODERATE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
AND WEAK-MODERATE 500-300 MB QG CONVERGENCE FORCING FOR LIFT. THE
22.00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORCING
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THESE DYNAMICS. THE MAIN LIFT FOR THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SOME WEAK
FORCING TRAILING SOUTHWEST IN THE TROUGH...AFFECTING MAINLY
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE LIFT ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WARM
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS BRINGS A WARM LAYER ABOVE 0C /1-2C/ IN
FROM THE WEST. SATURATION APPEARS TO BE TOP-DOWN WITH THIS LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA...THUS DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. THE WARM
LAYER OF 1-2C WILL QUICKLY /1-2 HOURS/ DIABATICALLY COOL...SO SOME
SLEET IS POSSIBLE AT FIRST SHOULD PRECIPITATION REACH THE SURFACE...THEN
RAIN/SNOW DEPENDING ON LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. SHOULD BE A LOW/NO QPF
EVENT AND HAVE MINIMAL/NO IMPACT. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
/40 PERCENT/ ARE FOUND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...DECREASING SOUTHWESTWARD TO ONLY 20 PERCENT OVER SERN
MN WHERE LOW-LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY PER 22.00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS.
GFS SEEMS A BIT TOO SATURATED GIVEN THE LIFT/FORCING MAGNITUDE
AND PREFER HOW THE NAM IS HANDLING THE CLOUD PHYSICS OF THIS
EVENT /DRIER LOW-LEVELS AND MORE SUB-CLOUD SUBLIMATION FURTHER
SOUTHWEST/.
IT STILL APPEARS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY /MORNING/ WILL HAVE A
MODERATE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY WAS LOCATED NEAR 170W/30N IN THE BASE OF
THE ENERGETIC AND DEEP PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND LATEST SREF RUNS ARE ALL PAINTING THE SAME PICTURE...A
MODERATELY FORCED SYSTEM AND SURFACE CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE.
HOWEVER...THE ENVELOPE FOR THIS SNOW AXIS AND LOW TRACK EXTEND
FROM THE MI U.P. /CANADIAN GLOBAL/ TO I-35 IN MINNESOTA
/ECMWF...NAM/. SO...WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE
OCEAN AND IT BEING 3 DAYS PRIOR TO ARRIVAL...WILL STEP SLOWLY INTO
THIS ONE. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE 55 PERCENT
RANGE ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL WI...LOWER ELSEWHERE...AND FORECAST A
BROAD AREA OF 1-2 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
DETAIL TIMING ON THIS FORECAST YET. FORCING AND LIFT CONSENSUS IN
THE MODELS IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE AND FRONTOGENESIS/INSTABILITY IS
AS WELL...SO IF THESE PLAYERS COME TOGETHER...IT COULD BE HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS TOWARD AN ADVISORY LEVEL.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS TO BE A BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN WITH SOME SMALL SNOW CHANCES...AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL. USED THE BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS WILL DEVELOP. CEILINGS FOR THE MOST PART
THIS MORNING ARE MVFR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS
THAT FLOATED THROUGH KRST AND BROUGHT THE CEILING DOWN TO IFR.
THIS APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A BIT A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO
WEST. IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER...SHOULD SEE A LOWERING OF THE
CEILING THIS MORNING AT KLSE...BUT STILL EXPECTING THEM TO REMAIN
MVFR. THE CLEARING IS WORKING WEST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS BOTH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE 22.09Z RAP AND 22.06Z NAM SUGGEST THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAINED TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR CLEARING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE TRENDS
SEEN ON THE SATELLITE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT DELAY THE
TIMING OF THE CLEARING SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO OVER 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM CANADA. THE NAM INDICATES GOOD LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP TO ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT KRST. IF THE SURFACE WINDS DO NOT
INCREASE...WIND SHEAR WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT BOTH TAF SITES
WITH SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET AFTER 23.06Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
420 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A WINTER
STORM "MAY" BE BACK ON THE TABLE FOR SOME OF THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WHETHER OR NOT WE
HAVE A WINTER STORM...IT WILL BE VERY COLD MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
**COASTAL STORM BRINGS MIXED PRECIP...WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING**
4AM UPDATE...
OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS ONGOING AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS. MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS IMPACTED
RIGHT NOW WITH HEAVY SNOW. IN FACT PORTIONS OF NJ AND EASTERN PA
HAS SEEN OVER 5 INCHES AS OF 330 AM. SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO
FALL IN CT AND SOUTHERN RI AND EXPECT THE SNOW TO SPREAD RAPIDLY
NORTHWARD.
LATEST SREF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SNOW FALL RATES MAY BE AN INCH
AN HOUR AT THE ONSET AND THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING DOWNSTREAM. HI-
RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR ARE PINPOINTING CT AND RI AS
LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE THIS SNOW BURST. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE
REDUCED VERY QUICKLY...DOWN TO HALF OF A MILE OR LESS IN SOME
LOCATIONS. EXPECT A QUICK THUMP OF SNOW ONCE PRECIP MOVES IN WHICH
COULD QUICKLY ADD UP TO 1-3 INCHES BEFORE ANY WINTRY MIX BEGINS.
MORE DETAILS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM BELOW:
HIGHLIGHTS...
* FAST MOVING COASTAL STORM TODAY.
* NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR NORTHEAST MASS.
* CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET POTENTIAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
PIKE.
* STRONG WINDS FOR THE SOUTHEAST MA THIS EVENING.
HEADLINES...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AS SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREV FORECASTERS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANYONE WILL SEE 10 INCHES DUE TO THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW AND HOW
PROGRESSIVE THIS SYSTEM IS. DID ADD COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY TO THE
WARNING AS THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO DECENT FGEN AND OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION.
ALSO ADDED NEWPORT COUNTY IN RHODE ISLAND AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH TO
THE ADVISORY AS THEY COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE
ONSET BUT WILL CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX WHICH COULD MAKE
THINGS SLICK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN.
OVERVIEW...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHEAST HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AND BOMB
OUT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THEN PREV RUNS HOWEVER THIS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY SINCE THERMAL PROFILES ARE ISOTHERMAL...ONE DEGREE CAN
ADD OR SUBTRACT SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SNOW AMOUNTS.
FOR THIS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARDS THE 00Z NAM/EC/RGEM WHICH ARE ALL
IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER. FEEL THE GFS QPF IS A LITTLE UNDERDONE.
THE 06Z NAM CAME IN RATHER WARM THEN REST OF GUIDANCE AND ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART. SO EVEN FORECAST GUIDANCE IS STILL FLIP-FLOPPING ON
THERMAL FIELDS WITHIN 3-6 HOURS OF THIS EVENT. THE 00Z TREND IS ALSO
FASTER SO HAVE SPEED THE SYSTEM UP WITHIN THE FORECAST BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. APPEARS THAT TONIGHT WE MAY JUST SEE A FEW FLAKES ON THE CAPE
AS THIS SYSTEM EXIT THE REGION QUICKLY. LASTLY...MODELS ARE ALSO
INDICATING A GOOD COLD CONVEYOR BELT SET-UP ON THE BACKSIDE SO
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN MASS WHICH COULD SEE
DESCENT SNOW AMOUNTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
1) TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE...
PRECIP HAS ALREADY ENTERED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD OVER
SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE REGION BY 7AM. AS NOTED BY PREV
FORECASTERS...THIS SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO LACK OF
BLOCKING UPSTREAM. SINCE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED THE
ONSET...EXPECT PRECIP TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 5-
9PM.
P-TYPE ISSUES ARE TRICKY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A DIFFERENCE OF ONE
DEGREE CAN CAUSE CHANGES WITH P-TYPE. SNOW WILL START AREA WIDE
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS THANKS TO OVERRUNNING FROM THE
WAA. THERMAL PROFILES ARE STILL WAVY...SO BELIEVE THAT A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN CT...RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO BOS WHEN TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM
AT 850MB. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN AFTER THE INITIAL ONSET OF SNOW ACROSS
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ALL SNOW WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS IN MASS.
TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THIS EVENT...WILL GENERALLY BE 3-6 INCHES WITH
SOME 6 TO 9 INCH REPORTS ALONG THE WORCESTER HILLS AND INTO INTERIOR
NORTHEAST MASS.
2) RISK FOR NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW...
THERE IS A RISK FOR A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA IS IN INTERIOR ESSEX COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF MIDDLESEX
COUNTY THAT IS ALONG THE I-495 BELT. IT WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WARM
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
ALSO THERMAL FIELDS SOUTH OF THE PIKE ARE TO MARGINAL AND WITH MIX
MOVING IN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER. WHERE THIS HEAVY BAND
SETS-UP THE RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES AND DOWN TREE LIMBS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY ESP IF SNOW TOTALS ARE 6+ INCHES.
3) STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO BOMBOGENESIS AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE
BENCHMARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM DROPS 40 MB IN 24 HOURS AS
IT WILL BE A SUB 970 MB ONCE IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE BENCHMARK. WIND
POTENTIAL IS LIMITED DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE WIND ADV CRITERIA ALONG THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
NO CHANGES TO WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
4) COASTAL FLOODING...
SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AFTER THE BRIEF BURST OF SNOW/WIND EXPECT A BREEZY AND COLD NIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRES ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO DRY AREA ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LEFTOVER PATCHY BLACK ICE
AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S BY DAYBREAK SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY
* WINTER STORM "MAY" BE BACK ON THE TABLE LATE MON/TUE - LOW
CONFIDENCE
* VERY COLD MON-WED WITH MODERATING TEMPS THU/FRI
DETAILS...
SUNDAY...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALREADY HAVE LIFTED INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY SUN AM. IN ITS WAKE...DRY BUT BLUSTERY AND
SEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...BUT
IT WILL FEEL A BIT COLDER WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND
30 MPH.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND
PARTICULARLY THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE NOW STRONGER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH CAPTURES LOW
PRESSURE ALLOWING A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. KEEP IN MIND THIS IS JUST
ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN AND THE FIRST TO SHOW IT. MUCH OF THE 00Z
GUIDANCE IS STILL WAY SOUTHEAST AND PRETTY MUCH A MISS FOR MOST OF
THE REGION. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS WAS JUST A HICCUP OR IF THE
ECMWF AND A FEW OF THE GEFS ARE ONTO SOMETHING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REGARDLESS IF WE GET A WINTER STORM OR NOT...OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE ISLANDS WITH VERY COLD
NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OVER THE OCEAN. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD
MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE...WHEN HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE TEENS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...
IF WE DO END UP WITH THAT WINTER STORM...IT WOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END BY EARLY WED. STILL WILL BE VERY COLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS EXPECTED EARLY WED MORNING.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR. SOME MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST BY FRI...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH HAVE SOMEWHAT HIGH CONFIDENCE...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING OR WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW/MIX LINE ENDS UP. COASTAL LOW
WILL PASS SE OF THE REGION. ANY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
IN RAIN AND HEAVY WET SNOW. SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ALONG THE RUNWAYS
AS SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE CLOSE TO AN INCH AN HOUR AND VSBYS WILL
DROP TO A QUICK 1/2SM AT THE ONSET. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN ON CAPE
COD AND ISLANDS BY MID-MORNING BEFORE CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING
WHEN N/NW WINDS COULD GUST TO 45KT. A FEW SITES WILL SEE A WINTRY
MIX DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS...ESP BDL-ORH-BOS LINE SOUTHWARD.
TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW. COULD BE A BURST OF
SNOW AT CAPE COD TAF SITES BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING WITH LOW VSBYS
AND QUICK ACCUMS DURING THE EVENING. AFTER ENDING EXPECT RAPID
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BUT WITH WIND GUSTS 20-30KT OUT OF THE NW.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING OF MIXING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING OF MIXING.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP IF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION
LATE MON INTO TUE. HIGHEST RISK SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE COAST DEPENDING ON TRACK OF
THE STORM.
WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHAT EVER HAPPENS WITH THE
STORM LATE MON INTO TUE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRENGTHEN COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY MOVE INSIDE THE 70N/40W
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THIS LOW WILL `BOMB` OUT...MEANING THAT
INTENSE PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS OUT OF THE N-NE...THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NW BY LATE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OVER. EXPECT
HEAVY RAIN AND FOG...POSSIBLY EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW CLOSER TO
THE SHORE. THE GALES BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO
ABOUT 15 FT ON THE OUTER SE WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KNOTS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. HOW CLOSE THIS
LOW TRACKS TO THE COAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...SHOULD HAVE STRONG SCA TO NORTHEAST GALE GUSTS LATE
MON/TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS. IF
COASTAL LOW TRACKS FURTHER WEST LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF...SEAS OF 20+
FEET AND STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE
DETERMINED BY TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW LATE MON INTO TUE. MAY HAVE
AT LEAST SOME LEFT OVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
**POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE**
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS STORM AND LACK OF ONSHORE
WIND/HIGH SEAS...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD
EVENT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE SOME POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE CYCLE. BOSTON HAS AN ASTRO TIDE OF 11.4 FEET AT 230 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A 0.5 TO 1 FOOT STORM SURGE ALONG WITH
FAIRLY RAPID PRESSURE FALLS. SO DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONG
WINDS/HIGH SEAS...EXPECT SOME POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
THERE IS A LOWER ASTRO HIGH TIDE OF 11.0 FEET IN BOSTON AT AROUND
230 AM SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME WINDS WILL BE
OFFSHORE SO WERE ONLY CONCERNED ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON/S HIGH TIDE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002-
003-008-009-015>021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ004>007-010>014-026.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
RIZ002>007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
329 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
A weak surface trof is expected to push across the area this morning
switching our winds more into a west to northwest direction. In
addition, latest satellite data and surface observations indicate
another band of clouds approaching from the northwest, immediately
behind the weak frontal boundary. Based on its current movement, it
appears the eastern half of the forecast area will be affected the
most from the southeastward moving clouds later this morning. This
will have an impact on afternoon highs with our east and northeast
counties trending a bit below guidance, with low to mid 40s common,
while over west central and southwest Illinois, not as much cloud
cover is expected and as a result we should push into the mid or
upper 40s this afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
00Z forecast model suite has trended further south and west surface
low pressure track going se into central IA (1003 mb) by 06Z/midnight
tonight, into south central IL by 18Z/noon Sunday, and nearing the
eastern KY and WV border by 06Z/midnight Sunday night. Have trended
a bit higher with qpf (averaging around a quarter of an inch) over
central IL Sunday along with cooler temps Sunday/Sunday night and
bringing chances of snow further south with the cooler air/further
south track of storm system. Have increasing chances of light rain
after midnight tonight over central IL with just slight chances of
light rain late tonight in southeast IL from I-70 southeast. Light
snow could mix with light rain late tonight north of I-74, but
most areas should be rain overnight with lows in the low to mid
30s. Raised pops to 60-90% Sunday with highest pops northern
counties where rain changes to snow especially late Sunday
morning/afternoon. Have snow chances as far south as I-70 by late
Sunday afternoon with southeast IL seeing light snow too during
Sunday evening before ending overnight Sunday night. Have 1-2
inches of snow ne of a Canton to Lincoln to Paris line Sunday and
Sunday evening with locally higher amounts 2-3 inches in far ne
CWA over Marshall and northeast Vermilion counties. A winter
weather advisory may eventually be needed in ne counties but will
issue SPS for now due to models shifting track of low pressure
past few runs. Highs Sunday range from mid 30s northern counties
to 40-45F from Springfield to Terre Haute south with mid 40s near
Lawrenceville. Temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday
afternoon.
Another clipper system diving se across the western Great Lakes
Monday and Monday night to bring a chance of light snow showers to
northern/ne counties with best chances of accumulating light snow
appears to be ne of central IL. Highs Monday range from low to mid
30s from I-74 ne to the upper 30s to around 40F in sw counties. Dry
conditions expected Tue/Wed as high pressure settles into the upper
MS river valley Tue and into the Ohio river valley Wed. Highs in the
mid 30s to near 40F on Tue and climbing into the upper 30s to mid
40s Wed, with upper 40s from Jacksonville sw.
Surface low pressure system tracks into the Midwest and southern
Great Lakes region Wed night and Thu bringing a 20-30% chance of
light rain/snow. Models have trended quicker with this feature.
Above normal highs Thursday in the low to mid 40s with upper 40s in
southeast IL. Temps then cool behind this feature with highs in the
30s Friday and even colder temperatures expected next weekend with
another chance of light snow next Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
Some minor adjustments. Mid clouds and southwesterly flow ahead of
an approaching boundary. Boundary and llvl moisture starting to
spread low clouds north of the ILX terminals...but expected to
develop along PIA/BMI/CMI line by morning. BKN MVFR in the
morning...anticipated to move through and out of the region later
in the day, accompanied by a more nwrly wind. May see the forecast
improve a little quicker, but for now...keeping the MVFR cigs in
there in the north. More optimistic across SPI and DEC and
scattering the 2kft deck in the morning and dominating with cirrus
per HRRR and Bufkit soundings.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
238 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
305 PM...NO CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO ERODE FROM THE NORTH AND THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE BACK EDGE PUSHES EAST.
HOWEVER...AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
THOUGH A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY CAN/T BE COMPLETED RULED OUT...BUT NO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. CLOUD COVER HELPED HOLD HIGHS TODAY IN
THE LOWER/MID 30S AND WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES...EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT TO DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S...THOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH APPROACHING MID CLOUDS AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL BE SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. IF THIS CLOUD COVER DOES BECOME
OVERCAST...HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED SOME AS
WELL...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
305 PM...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MODERATE/MILD TEMPS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE 12Z GFS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE REST OF THE MODELS...WHICH TRACK THE LOW
FROM ROUGHLY MLI TO IND SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW...BUT INITIALLY COULD BE SOME RAIN
MIXED IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. IN ADDITION...SNOW/WATER RATIOS
COULD BE RATHER LOW TO START...YIELDING A WETTER SNOW. BUT AS THE
LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST...COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE SNOW LIKELY BECOMING DRIER BY LATE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAKES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT TRICKY...
ESPECIALLY IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW ENDS UP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
AS THE GFS SUGGESTS...COLDER AIR WOULD ARRIVE SOONER. POSSIBLE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ALSO ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...DIDN/T MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF A SQI/IKK
LINE...1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF THAT LINE. BUT AS IS ALWAYS THE
CASE...MINOR CHANGES IN THE TRACK COULD CAUSE LARGE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS TRENDS EMERGE.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL BY MID/LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTH. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND
DEPENDING ON HOW DRY THE SNOW BECOMES...THERE COULD BE SOME
BLOWING SNOW BUT AGAIN...ITS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS OR HOW MUCH
OF A PROBLEM THIS COULD BECOME.
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHERLY WINDS MAY ALLOW SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND
THEN INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE RATHER
LOW...PERHAPS NO HIGHER THAN 4KFT AND WINDS BEGIN TO TURN BACK
EASTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING. THUS ANY LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL LOOKS
MINIMAL.
ANOTHER CLIPPER QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
EVENING AND SOME AREAS MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO DEPENDING ON WHERE
IT TRACKS. HAVE INCLUDED JUST LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
FLOW TURNS BACK SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS MODIFY BACK INTO THE 30S
THOUGH WITH AN EXPECTED SNOW PACK BY THEN...LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW
WARM TEMPS WILL BECOME. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CEILINGS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 08Z AND
LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
* WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KTS TODAY...DIMINISHING AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY AND BECOMING
GUSTY TOWARD MORNING.
* SNOW DEVELOPING TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SNOW JUST BEYOND END OF ORD 30 OUR TAF PERIOD.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH A WEAKER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING SOUTHWEST
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST...AS WELL
AS AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE 07-09Z TIME FRAME PER EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOME
LARGE BREAKS IN THE STRATUS BACK ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
SUGGEST IT MAY TEND TO ALLOW SOME BREAKS TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST IN THE LOWEST
FEW THOUSAND FEET NEAR THE GROUND.
OF GREATER CONFIDENCE IS THE APPROACH OF A DIGGING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHWEST OF TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SATURATING THE
COLUMN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 12Z. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
SNOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER...JUST BEYOND END OF CURRENT TAF PERIODS.
IN ADDITION...DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND
INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY GUSTING 25-30 KT BY MID-
MORNING SUNDAY.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS...THOUGH MEDIUM-LOW IN DIRECTION SATURDAY
EVENING AS SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST OCCURS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN TIMING OF MVFR DECK EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW IN
DISSIPATION TIMING LATER TODAY.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN TIMING SNOW TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...SNOW. IFR LIKELY PERIODIC LIFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SN. MVFR PROBABLE W/CHANCE OF IFR.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. MAINLY DRY.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
238 AM CST
MAIN MARINE CONCERNS FOCUS ON THE PERIOD FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...AS NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FAST-MOVING DEEPENING ALBERTA-CLIPPER LOW
WHICH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHERN INDIANA DURING THE DAY.
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM THIS MORNING...LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING EAST OF
JAMES BAY ACROSS QUEBEC...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND WEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TODAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NORTH AND INCREASING BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST QUEBEC. BY
TONIGHT...THE FAST-MOVING CLIPPER WILL ALSO ALREADY BE ENTERING
IOWA AND MOVING INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE
DEEPENING A BIT. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL ALSO
HELP TO TURN WINDS NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THEM ALL THE WAY TO THE
SOUTH END OF THE LAKE AS THE LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A PERIOD OF
SOLID 30 KT NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH 2/3 OR 3/4 OF THE LAKE
SUNDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 30 KTS (MARGINAL GALE FORCE) DURING
THE DAY. WITH THE LOW MOVING QUICKLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS QUICKLY AS THEY INCREASED EARLY IN
THE DAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE IL/NW IND NEARSHORE
WATERS FROM ABOUT 6 AM CST SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
THE STRONG WINDS AND RESULTING WAVES.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO APPEAR RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY
NIGHT QUICKLY BEING DISPLACED MONDAY BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS
WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING INTO THE 25 KT RANGE FOR A
TIME MONDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THE LOW THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...FILLING AS A DEEP LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS
THE LAKE TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MOVES INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...6 AM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1149 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
Weak surface ridge and mostly clear skies slowly giving way to
some AC moving across the Midwest from the northwest. Forecast on
track as some warmer air advects into the region. No major updates
to the forecast anticipated other than some small adjustments to
the hourly grids.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
Clearing line from the morning stratocumulus deck was unable to make
any further eastward progress, so the clouds decided to dissolve in
place instead. 2 pm visible satellite imagery showing most areas
west of I-55 now mostly sunny, with the clouds rapidly eroding on
the western flank of what`s left. The clear skies won`t last too
long though, as mid-level cloud deck ahead of the next frontal
boundary is already in southeast Iowa. The boundary itself is still
back across eastern Nebraska through the Minneapolis area, and will
be moving through our forecast area between midnight and sunrise.
However, no precipitation is expected with it. Lows across the
forecast area should fall into the upper 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
By and large, the forecast period will be dominated by a ridge
west/trof east pattern across North America, a pattern that has been
pretty common of late. The fast moving northwest upper-level flow
that has been over the forecast area has had numerous, mainly weak,
impulses embedded within it traveling over or in our vicinity. Most
of these waves lately, and those expected over the next several
days, have been too weak and/or moisture starved to produce much
precipitation locally. This trend should continue to be the case for
most of the days of this forecast. However, a more significant
clipper system still appears on track to impact the area late
Saturday night into Sunday night. This system is our primary
forecast concern today.
A weak upper/surface trof will move across the area later
tonight/early Saturday, but it is only expected to be accompanied by
an increase in cloud cover. This cloud cover is currently evident
upstream from the Great Lakes into the central Plains.
The timing of the main clipper is pretty well agreed upon, and has
been for a few days now, with the primary precipitation risk
occurring late Saturday night/early Sunday Morning into Sunday
afternoon. However, the track of the system continues to exhibit
considerable model spread, as well as run-to-run variability. The
overall model trend had been toward a more northerly track until
about 24 hours ago, but now the trend is back toward the south. The
northern track would have resulted in minimal precipitation risk for
the forecast area, with the bulk of it falling in the form of rain.
The more southern track, most pronounced in the latest run of the
GFS, would support more widespread precipitation locally, with at
least the northern portion of the forecast area in line for some
accumulating snow. Forecast confidence in the details with this
system remains low considering the variability/inconsistency.
However, given the trends of the past 24 hours, have boosted PoPs
into the Likely category for much of the forecast area on Sunday,
and added some light snow accumulation across the north. If the
models lock into a more southern solution, one that takes the
clipper just south of the forecast area like the current GFS,
temperatures will need to be lowered, PoPs raised, and snow amounts
boosted. For now, will be conservative with the changes until the
ultimate outcome is a little more clear.
For the remainder of the period, mostly quiet weather is expected. A
weak wave is most likely to impact the area Monday and again by
Thursday. However, these disturbances appear too weak to carry
mentionable precipitation at this time. Temperatures through the end
of the next work week should be at or above normal. The coolest
readings are likely Monday/Tuesday behind the main clipper, and
again Friday behind Thursday`s disturbance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
Some minor adjustments. Mid clouds and southwesterly flow ahead of
an approaching boundary. Boundary and llvl moisture starting to
spread low clouds north of the ILX terminals...but expected to
develop along PIA/BMI/CMI line by morning. BKN MVFR in the
morning...anticipated to move through and out of the region later
in the day, accompanied by a more nwrly wind. May see the forecast
improve a little quicker, but for now...keeping the MVFR cigs in
there in the north. More optimistic across SPI and DEC and
scattering the 2kft deck in the morning and dominating with cirrus
per HRRR and Bufkit soundings.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUING
TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
STATES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN
FOR WESTERN KANSAS WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE SKIES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASED ON COMPARISON OF MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND ACTUAL RECORDED DAYTIME HIGHS, THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE TENDED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS IN THESE
DOWNSLOPE REGIMES. FOR TODAY WE HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ARE ALSO SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THIS RANGE.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER RANGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
FEBRUARY 3RD AND BEYOND WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR WESTERN KANSAS,
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND PROGRESS FROM WEST
OF BAJA ON JAN 28TH TO NEAR BAJA ON JAN 31ST AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FEB 2ND, BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IN WESTERN KANSAS.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY (HIGHS MAINLY 50S) AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW (NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY)
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL COOL THE
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
FALLING FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S OR 40S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 36 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 61 34 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 58 31 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 61 31 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 64 38 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
P28 64 36 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUING
TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
STATES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN
FOR WESTERN KANSAS WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE SKIES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASED ON COMPARISON OF MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND ACTUAL RECORDED DAYTIME HIGHS, THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE TENDED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS IN THESE
DOWNSLOPE REGIMES. FOR TODAY WE HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ARE ALSO SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THIS RANGE.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER RANGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY, A LACK
OF MOISTURE FROM A PREVAILING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WILL HINDER ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MENTIONED EARLIER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO FILTER DOWN INTO
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 0C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH NEAR 5C ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 50S(F)
UP NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH THE 60S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY HELP WARM UP
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME MONDAY AS A NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNS TO WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT H85 ARE
PROJECTED TO CLIMB UP TO AROUND 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
15C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE,
LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 70F
IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SIMILAR HIGHS ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HELPS INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 36 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 61 34 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 58 31 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 61 31 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 64 38 52 32 / 0 0 0 0
P28 64 36 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1153 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
.AVIATION...
SKIES CLR OVR SE TX AND SRN LA THIS EVE... SOUTH CENTRAL LA XPCD
TO CLR OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS. WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS THRU
SUNRISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
MARINE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE COASTALS, CANX SCA NEAR SHORE
WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY, ISSUING CAUTION IN ITS PLACE AS WINDS
DIMINISHING CLOSE IN FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. HOISTED CAUTION FOR
VERMILION BAY TNITE AS UPPER TROF SWEEPS THRU. KEPT SCA IN FORCE
FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY AND ALL OUTER
WATERS TNITE...THEN CAUTION ON SATURDAY TIL NOON.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
UPDATE...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BEING SQUEEZED OUT AHEAD OF
AN H5 TROF AXIS WILL END FOR THE NIGHT FROM THE WEST ON A LINE
FROM ALEXANDRIA TO BEAUMONT. LEFT MINIMAL POPS OUT AHEAD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR BEING USHERED IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE H5 TROF WHICH IS MOVING ALONG TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT A GOOD 25 MPH...ON TRACK TO CLEAR LOWER ACADIANA BY MIDNIGHT.
LATEST RUC CONFIRMS PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS ON TRACK EXCEPT FOR A
TWEAK LOWER FOR THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND SW LOUISIANA. GRIDS
ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE MIXED CONTS TO FALL ACROSS SE TX AND SRN
LA THIS EVE. THE BACK OF THE RAIN SHIELD IS MOVING THRU HARDIN AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. XPC TO SEE SKIES CLRG OVR SE TX TWRDS
03Z AND OVR SRN LA TWRDS 06Z MVFR/IFR ALL SITES BUT TAF LCTNS SHLD
BECMG VFR TWRDS 06Z.
19
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC LOW OVER THE SE U.S. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST OVER OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER E TX AND LA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL BE OUT OF
THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 40S AREAWIDE...AND
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S AFTER SKIES CLEAR FROM W TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THE WINDS CALM DOWN.
PLEASANT BUT COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A PREDOMINATE NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE REGION...AND
A SERIES OF RE-ENFORCING HIGHS BUILD SOUTHEAST. THUS...FOR SUN
THRU THU...EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY FRI...INCREASING MOISTURE WITH AN
APPROACHING TROF AND FRONT MAY YIELD A CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT.
DML
MARINE...
NNW TO N WINDS 20-25 KTS & SEAS 3-7 FT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE EXITING OF THE SFC LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
THUS SCA CONTINUES FOR 0-60NM COASTAL ZONES THRU 06Z...AND THRU
12Z SAT FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES. SCEC FOR AREA LAKES/BAYS. PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY
MORNING...BECOMING WESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE GULF WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 36 58 41 65 45 / 20 10 0 0 0
KBPT 35 60 41 65 44 / 10 10 0 0 0
KAEX 34 57 38 64 42 / 20 10 0 0 0
KLFT 36 58 40 64 43 / 20 10 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CST SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS
FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO
60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
448 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY TODAY
AND THEN ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHALLENGE FOR THIS TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL AND PLACEMENT.
LIGHT SNOW WAS FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE AS OF 07Z
PER THE LATEST RADAR AND OBS. THIS BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW WAS IN
RESPONSE TO THE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION W/THE HELP OF
A JETSTREAK OF 40 KTS RESIDING AT 700MB. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL END
THIS MORNING AND THEN THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING STORM TO AFFECT THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AND THERE
APPEARS TO BE A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT W/NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE
GETTING SHUT OUT ON THIS EVENT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRUCIAL NOT ONLY TO QPF AND SNOWFALL BUT ALSO TO THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE.
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP MATCHED UP WELL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS W/TAKING THE SFC LOW FROM THE CAROLINAS
TODAY TO THE NOVA SCOTIA REGION. LATEST PRECIP ANALYSIS AT 06Z
SHOWED THAT TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER THE DELMARVA.
THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLL IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY AS ONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS DECENT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM 1000-700MBS THAT SETS UP ACROSS
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIP/SNOWFALL RATES. BLYR TEMPS WILL
BE CRUCIAL ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY. DECIDED
TO USE CONSENSUS APCH W/THIS EVENT AND BRING A NOSE OF WARMER IN
THE LLVLS OVER THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST. THIS TRANSLATES TO MID
30S AT THE SURFACE ALLOWING SNOW TO GO TO RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN FOR A
PERIOD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO FALL BACK AFTER ABOUT 8 PM WITH PRECIP GOING BACK TO SNOW
W/SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. BACK TO THE W AND N, BLYR TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. ALL WINTER HEADLINES REMAIN IN
PLACE AS IS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY
AS THE HEAVY BOUT OF PRECIP THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION W/THE
COOLING TEMPS COULD ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO CLOSE IN NEAR 7
INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITING AND EASTPORT AREAS.
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN AND END LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL ADD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW W/OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
SHOULD DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH AND MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWN EAST BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL TO ABOUT 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE NORTH AND 10 TO 15 CENTRAL
AND DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD WITH SUB
ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER FOR TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
WARRANTED BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH DOWN EAST AND COASTAL AREAS ONCE AGAIN
APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
ANY SNOW WILL WIND DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS AND VFR FOR BGR AND BHB. THIS WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM KHUL DOWN TO KBHB W/SOME SNOW AND
CONDITIONS GOING TO MVFR AND IFR. LIFR IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
FOR KBGR AND KBHB IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND SOME TURBULENCE.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT BY MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SNOW LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB
TERMINALS. VFR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS/SEAS ARE STARTING TO COME UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
PER 07Z OBS. WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO
HIT 40S OUT OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 7 TO 11 FT BY LATER TONIGHT.
SOME MINOR OVERWASH ALONG HANCOCK COUNTY NEAR SEAWALL ROAD AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY IS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
NEAR SHORE MODEL INDICATED THAT ANY OVERWASH WOULD BE MINOR. THE
DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO SUNDAY WITH
WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
MONDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE GALES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
MEZ011-015>017-029-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
MEZ005-006-030-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
414 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND EXIT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
QUICKLY DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND COULD END UP MOVING
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF OF THE DELAWARE COAST AS OF 4 AM. A
PRETTY EXPANSIVE SNOW SHIELD IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS CONNECTICUT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
AND LIKELY ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE IF NOT AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD.
OVERALL...WE HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS. ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EASTWARD A BIT...AND
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SLIGHT CHANGE. ONE THING IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN...AND THAT IS THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. ONE TOWN MAY
HAVE 5 OR 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER TOWN 10 MILES TO THE WEST
MAY END UP WITH NEXT TO NOTHING. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS BY INCORPORATING THE LATEST HRRR POPS FOR THE
FIRST 12-15 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS BACK EDGE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. TODAY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE A CASE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT OUR MOUNTAINS ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY OR
MOSTLY DRY.
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEASTERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE SNOW-FREE AFTER 00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB +PNA PATTERN WILL DISAPPEAR AS
THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND BOTH UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT AND
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER ERN NO AMERICA AND ALLOW COLD CORE OF
AIR TO DROP EQUATORWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF WEEK. SO...COLD TO START THE EXTENDED...MAYBE A LITTLE WARM UP
TO AROUND NORMAL LATE WEEK...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN COLDER NEXT
WEEKEND.
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BE COLD WITH ENOUGH WIND SUNDAY EVE TO PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR -20 IN THE N...AND BLO ZERO EVERYWHERE
ELSE...BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL COLD
AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE N...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 10-20 F
RANGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS 500 MB TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINA COAST....DEPENDING ON
WHETHER YOU FOLLOW THE EURO OR GFS. THE EURO IS MUCH MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW AND INTENSIFYING THE
SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ENOUGH TO SPREAD
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE CWA. THE GFS KEEPS THE SFC FLOW
FURTHER E AND INTENSIFIES LATER...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS SNOW AND
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE IN THE ERN ZONES.
GIVEN THE SOLID PERFORMANCE OF THE EURO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION
AND HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA ON TUE. STILL IT LOOKS
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...SO ANY SNOW WILL
HAVE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIO.
SHOULD SEE NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND HIGHS ON WED LIMITED TO THE TEENS TO AROUND
20 AGAIN. AS THAT INTENSE LOW HEADS NE THROUGH THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR THUS...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER
NH/ME...AND A BIT OF WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES AND BRINGS THE COLD BACK BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE BECOMING IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW BY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE. POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW LATE MON INTO TUE EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR BY WED...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST WATERS AS COASTAL STORM
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SCA LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS A GOOD BET SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SCA POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
GALES TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND
E.
&&
.COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE
AVOIDED TODAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE AS
THE WINDS FROM THE COASTAL STORM SHOULD NOT HAVE KICKED IN YET.
HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR FOR SOME POTENTIAL VERY MINOR SPASHOVER.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR MEZ018>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ008-009-011-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
135 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW. STRENGTHENING LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
125 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS AND SNOW BASED ON THE LATEST
RADAR SHOWING SOME ENHANCED RETURNS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS W/THE WARM FRONT. THE RAP AND NAM12 WERE CLOSE IN
DEPICTING THE CURRENT SETUP. THEREFORE BROUGHT 70% POPS DOWN INTO
THE HOULTON AND DANFORTH REGIONS. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT
W/ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPS WERE HOLDING UP IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S NORTH TO SOUTH. HRLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO MATCH
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP OFF MUCH
FURTHER OVERNIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
STORM TRACK WILL PRODUCE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF... ALL OF WHICH HAVE BEEN CONVERGING ON A COMMON SOLUTION...
FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL USE THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL INITIALIZE WITH THE
SUPER BLEND THEN RAISE BOTH MINIMUM AND MAXMUM TEMPERATURE
SLIGHTLY. FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST TO NOVA
SCOTIA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM,
WITH THE GENERAL TREND HAVING BEEN TO WARM THINGS JUST A TAD AND
TO SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. WE STILL
EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE A
DEFORMATION BAND WILL SET UP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES UNDER THIS BAND,
WITH A VERY SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT ON ITS NORTHWEST SIDE. WITH
THE SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT, WE`VE ALSO SHIFTED THE HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE IS NOW
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE, WITH INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF WASHINGTON, HANCOCK SEEING 8 TO 12 INCHES. WE HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THESE REGIONS. THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL MIX WITH SNOW FOR A TIME SATURDAY EVENING, WHICH
WILL KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT LOWER, MORE IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH
RANGE. ALSO, ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WARNING AREA, LOCATIONS SUCH
AS HOULTON, MILLINOCKET, AND DOVER- FOXCROFT WILL SEE 3 TO 6
INCHES, SO HAVE PUT THESE AREAS IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS
WELL.
THE STORM IS A FAST MOVER, SO THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. COLDER DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, LEADING TO DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MSLY FAIR AND VERY COLD...WITH THE COLDEST
OVRNGT LOWS OVR THE FAR NRN QUARTER OF ME...WHERE SKIES WILL BE
CLEAREST AND WINDS LIGHTEST UNDER A RIDGE OF CAN SFC HI PRES. OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS...HI/MID CLDNSS AND A NE BREEZE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
LATE AS LOW PRES BEGINS TO MOVE ENE FROM THE NC COAST.
THE CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS ATTM SLIDES MOST OF THE PRECIP...IN THE
FORM OF SN JUST S OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS THE DOWNEAST COAST
GETTING GRAZED WHERE WE WENT WITH LOW CHC POPS. ANOTHER...NOT AS
COLD AS ARCTIC AIR MASS FOLLOWS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRES MOVG
WELL S OF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST FOR OUR REGION TUE NGT AND WED.
THE NEXT CHC OF MAINLY LGT SN WILL BE LATER THU INTO THU NGT WITH A
SFC LOW AND S/WV MOVG E FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL
CAN...APCHS AND CROSSES THE REGION. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES...THE 12Z OPNL GFS DIFFERS ON THE CALIBER
OF ARCTIC AIR WHICH FOLLOWS FOR LATER FRI INTO FRI NGT...WITH THE
GFS MUCH COLDER THAN THE ECMWF. WE TOOK A BLENDED APCH FOR TEMPS ON
FRI...REFLECTING A COMPROMISE FOR NOW UNTIL WE GET BETTER RESOLUTION
OF THIS DIFFERENCE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS OVR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MOSTLY MVFR AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH -SN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM KPQI NORTH.
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR
BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KBHB AND KBGR
00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 08Z AS WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVES ACROSS EASTERN AND
DOWNEAST MAINE. THE OTHER SITES WILL LIKELY BE MVFR, THOUGH IFR IS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT KHUL. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
IMPROVE BY 12Z SUNDAY AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END AND SKIES CLEAR.
VFR IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. THEN MAINLY VFR
MON NGT INTO WED...WITH MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH LGT SN POSSIBLE
ON TUE AT KBHB.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS. FOR
WAVES: CURRENTLY PRIMARY WAVE GROUP IS OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS DEPENDENT ON DISTANCE OFF-SHORE. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED
BY SECONDARY SOUTHEAST LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM (1-2 FEET/9
SECONDS). TONIGHT WIND WAVES WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET/5-6 SECONDS AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE. HAVE RUN NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL AT
1200Z THIS MORNING AND WILL USE THIS FOR WAVE GRIDS.
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. GUSTS
TO 40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, BUT THE GALE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 25 KT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
MEZ011-015>017-029-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
MEZ005-006-030-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
504 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WILL
CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...ELONGATED LO PRES WAS JUST E OF VA BEACH SW TO
NEAR THE SE NC AND NE SC CST. LATEST RDR INDICATED JUST SCTD AREAS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OCCURRING OVR THE CWA. THE LO WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST TODAY.
LAGGING UPR TROF WITH SOME STRONGER FORCING WILL LIFT ACRS THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNG THRU THE AFTN...BRINGING MORE PCPN WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS REMAINING OVR THE ERN/SERN COUNTIES. COULD SEE
ANOTHER 0.25-0.50" OF RAINFALL OVR THESE COUNTIES BEFORE THE PCPN
ENDS EARLY THIS EVENG. WHILE THE BNDRY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY
WARM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PCPN COULD TURN TO SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN HIGHER PCPN RATES. THUS HAVE KEEP MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW IN BY THIS AFTN ACRS N/W 1/2 OF THE CWA GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS ARE AT THEIR HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNG OVR EXTRM
SE VA AND CSTL NE NC IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WHERE THE CSTL
FRONT WAS SITTING JUST INLAND OF THESE AREAS. TEMPS ELSEWHERE WERE
RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. ONCE THAT BOUNDARY PUSHES
OFF THE CST LATER THIS MORNG...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 40S
DURING TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST 00Z SUITE OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND
FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
RAPID DRYING OF ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL FORECAST DRY
CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TNGT OTHER
THAN A SML CHC FOR SNOW BRIEFLY IN THE EARLY EVENING ON THE MD ERN
SHR/NRN NECK. LOWS 30-35. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUN WITH HIGHS
RANGING FM THE LWR 50S S...TO THE MID TO UPR 40S N IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS SUN
EVENG/NGT AND SLIDES E THRU SRN VA/NC AND OFFSHR LATE SUN NGT THRU
MON. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS WITH REGARD TO
HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...AND DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTH OF LO
PRES JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST BY 00Z TUE. TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR
SUN NGT AND MON...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS AT LEAST THE
NRN HALF OF THE AREA DURING MON...AND LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW
EVERYWHERE MON NGT. THIS IS BY FAR LOOKING LIKE OUR BEST CHC FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THUS FAR THIS WINTER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. LOWS
SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 30S. HIGHS ON MON RANGING FM THE MID 30S
EXTRM NW/N...TO THE MID TO UPR 40S EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC (WITH
TEMPS LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THRU THE DAY). STAY
TUNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP/ANOMALOUS NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. TO BEGIN
THE EXTENDED...LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES MORNING AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVES DIGS OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE
TN/KY VALLEYS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TUES MORNING. ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. HEIGHT FALLS IN TANDEM
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP THRU MON
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO
PREDOMINATELY SNOW THRU THE NIGHT...REACHING SE VA/NE NC AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR SURE...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES AS
THE SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT EXPECT BRUNT OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE. THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE LATE TUES NIGHT-WEDS
MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM OFFSHORE TUES
NIGHT...BUT INCREASING NWLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION
THURS...AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS NIGHT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TUES-WEDS IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S. TEMPS REBOUND THURS-FRI INTO THE LOW-MID 40S.
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUES NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE SE COAST TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO A
POSITION OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. LATEST
OBS REFLECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-
MORNING. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BACKING THE WINDS TO THE NNW INLAND AT RIC/SBY,
BRIEFLY VEERING WINDS TO THE SSW OVER SE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY
TODAY. A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN IS UNDERWAY AT RIC, AND HV GONE WITH A
BREIF PERIOD OF DZ BEFORE PCPN FILLS BACK IN BEFORE DAWN. WINDS
REMAIN MORE NORTH AND NORTHWEST BY MID-MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE REMAINING MOISTURE SWINGING OFF THE COAST BY
16-20Z. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS ACROSS THE AREA, SOME OF THE
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHRAS AS PCPN ENDS BY LATE
MORNING (PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE RIC. HAVE HELD THIS OUT
OF THE TAF FOR NOW, BUT WILL MONITOR FOR 12Z ISSUANCE. ONCE THE
MOISTURE CLEARS BY LATE AFTN/EVENING...WILL SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS COULD AGAIN CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PERSSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER SE VA/NC
COAST THIS MORNING. STILL NOTING SOME W-SW FLOW JUST E-NE OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES, WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NNW IN THE BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. HRRR AND RAP BOTH CATCHING ON TO THE
EXPECTED LULL IN SCA WINDS AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW
LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO ENSUE AS THE
LOW LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE WATERS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTN AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA. SWAN AND
WAVEWATCH SEEM TO MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH SEAS IN
THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS BECOME MORE WLY SAT AFTERNOON AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
AND CAA SURGE WANES. SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND RUN
THRU THE DAY SAT...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE
FAR LOWER CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT. SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT
(UP TO 7 FT IN THE NRN WATERS) THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING THRU THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY, WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAINING SUB-SCA
SUN/SUN NGT. THAT SUB-SCA CONDITION WILL BE SHORT LIVED,
HOWEVER...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA
WATERS MON...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY MONDAY MORNING, WITH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MON AFTERNOON/TUESDAY. LOW END GALES WILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 8-12FT
JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY NGT/TUESDAY. STRONG NWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE WATERS REMAIN
BTWN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE OH VALLEY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
631-633-635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM/SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
440 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WILL
CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...ELONGATED LO PRES WAS JUST E OF VA BEACH SW TO
NEAR THE SE NC AND NE SC CST. LATEST RDR INDICATED JUST SCTD AREAS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OCCURRING OVR THE CWA. THE LO WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST TODAY.
LAGGING UPR TROF WITH SOME STRONGER FORCING WILL LIFT ACRS THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNG THRU THE AFTN...BRINGING MORE PCPN WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS REMAINING OVR THE ERN/SERN COUNTIES. COULD SEE
ANOTHER 0.25-0.50" OF RAINFALL OVR THESE COUNTIES BEFORE THE PCPN
ENDS EARLY THIS EVENG. WHILE THE BNDRY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY
WARM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PCPN COULD TURN TO SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN HIGHER PCPN RATES. THUS HAVE KEEP MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW IN BY THIS AFTN ACRS N/W 1/2 OF THE CWA GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS ARE AT THEIR HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNG OVR EXTRM
SE VA AND CSTL NE NC IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WHERE THE CSTL
FRONT WAS SITTING JUST INLAND OF THESE AREAS. TEMPS ELSEWHERE WERE
RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. ONCE THAT BOUNDARY PUSHES
OFF THE CST LATER THIS MORNG...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 40S
DURING TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST 12Z SUITE OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND FASTER/MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID DRYING OF
ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAT NIGHT OTHER THAN A CHC FOR SNOW BRIEFLY
IN THE EVENING ON THE MD ERN SHORE/NRN NECK. LOWS 30-35 F. PARTLY
SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR 50S S TO THE MID 40S N ON SUN IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS APPROACHES FROM THE WNW SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS
CLIPPER SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS SUN NIGHT
AND SLIDES ESE THROUGH SRN VA/NC AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY MON.
MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT AS TO HOW FAST COLD AIR ARRIVES...GFS
SLOWEST/NAM/ECMWF A BIT FASTER ON MON. WILL CARRY HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ON MON. THIS IS BY FAR
LOOKING LIKE OUR BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THUS FAR THIS
WINTER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. HIGHS MON IN THE 40S S TO THE 30S N
(WITH TEMPS LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY). STAY
TUNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP/ANOMALOUS NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. TO BEGIN
THE EXTENDED...LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES MORNING AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVES DIGS OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE
TN/KY VALLEYS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TUES MORNING. ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. HEIGHT FALLS IN TANDEM
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP THRU MON
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO
PREDOMINATELY SNOW THRU THE NIGHT...REACHING SE VA/NE NC AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR SURE...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES AS
THE SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT EXPECT BRUNT OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE. THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE LATE TUES NIGHT-WEDS
MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM OFFSHORE TUES
NIGHT...BUT INCREASING NWLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION
THURS...AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS NIGHT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TUES-WEDS IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S. TEMPS REBOUND THURS-FRI INTO THE LOW-MID 40S.
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUES NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE SE COAST TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO A
POSITION OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. LATEST
OBS REFLECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-
MORNING. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BACKING THE WINDS TO THE NNW INLAND AT RIC/SBY,
BRIEFLY VEERING WINDS TO THE SSW OVER SE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY
TODAY. A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN IS UNDERWAY AT RIC, AND HV GONE WITH A
BREIF PERIOD OF DZ BEFORE PCPN FILLS BACK IN BEFORE DAWN. WINDS
REMAIN MORE NORTH AND NORTHWEST BY MID-MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE REMAINING MOISTURE SWINGING OFF THE COAST BY
16-20Z. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS ACROSS THE AREA, SOME OF THE
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHRAS AS PCPN ENDS BY LATE
MORNING (PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE RIC. HAVE HELD THIS OUT
OF THE TAF FOR NOW, BUT WILL MONITOR FOR 12Z ISSUANCE. ONCE THE
MOISTURE CLEARS BY LATE AFTN/EVENING...WILL SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS COULD AGAIN CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PERSSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER SE VA/NC
COAST THIS MORNING. STILL NOTING SOME W-SW FLOW JUST E-NE OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES, WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NNW IN THE BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. HRRR AND RAP BOTH CATCHING ON TO THE
EXPECTED LULL IN SCA WINDS AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW
LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO ENSUE AS THE
LOW LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE WATERS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTN AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA. SWAN AND
WAVEWATCH SEEM TO MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH SEAS IN
THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS BECOME MORE WLY SAT AFTERNOON AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
AND CAA SURGE WANES. SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND RUN
THRU THE DAY SAT...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE
FAR LOWER CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT. SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT
(UP TO 7 FT IN THE NRN WATERS) THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING THRU THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY, WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAINING SUB-SCA
SUN/SUN NGT. THAT SUB-SCA CONDITION WILL BE SHORT LIVED,
HOWEVER...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA
WATERS MON...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY MONDAY MORNING, WITH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MON AFTERNOON/TUESDAY. LOW END GALES WILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 8-12FT
JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY NGT/TUESDAY. STRONG NWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE WATERS REMAIN
BTWN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE OH VALLEY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
631-633-635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
225 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THEN A CLIPPER LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 224 AM SATURDAY...
AS OF 6Z A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD PARALLELING I-95 INTO EASTERN GA. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW AND OUT TO SEA AROUND
THE TIDEWATER VA AREA. IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG THE COAST...BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. MOST
OF OUR CWA IS ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S NW TO SE AND DEWPOINTS RANGING THE SAME WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS.
WHATS LEFT OF THE CAD WEDGE HAS KEPT THESE SHORTWAVES CONFINED TO
EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE AND THAT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND FOR THE MOST PART OUT OF OUR AREA. EASTERN COUNTIES MAY
SEE SOME MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING BUT ANY POSSIBLE
THUNDER WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
THE MORE LIKELY MODE OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE TRIANGLE OUT TO THE TRIAD. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
COMPARED TO THOSE SEEN EARLIER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE BIG
FORECAST QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL RAIN LINGER INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE RAP HAS THE CAD WEDGE BREAKING DOWN BY ABOUT 10Z BUT
PRECIPITATION LINGERS ON UNTIL 18Z AND BEYOND. THIS 18Z TIME FRAME
IS ALSO BEING FAVORED BY THE OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND
LOOKING AT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...RADAR RETURNS THAT WOULD POSSIBLY
AFFECT OUR AREA EXTEND DOWN INTO THE FL PANHANDLE SO THAT IS NOT
UNREASONABLE. GUT FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE
EAST OF OUR AREA SO EXPECT ONLY ANOTHER TENTH OR TWO IN THE TRIAD
WITH UP TO A HALF OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN EXTREME EASTERN AREAS BUT
JUST OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH SEEMS MORE LIKELY.
LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST AS LONG AS PRECIPIATION IS AROUND WITH
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUT COMPLETELY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO FROM A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING TO MORE WESTERLY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THIS WIND SHIFT WILL COME SOME GUSTINESS
AS WELL WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 10KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS.
LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL BE TRICKY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BACK UNDER THE WEDGE...FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN LOW TO MIDDLE
30S FOR THE TRIAD. ALONG THE FRONT HOWEVER LOWS COULD BE AS HIGH AS
THE MID 40S. CLINTON IS STILL REPORTING 57 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS EVEN GOLDSBORO IS
REPORTING 48 DEGREES AT THIS TIME. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON A MUCH MORE EVEN TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR THE HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY...
SUN: EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF SUNDAY... AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS WEAKLY AND BRIEFLY INTO NC FROM THE SW WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN FROM
MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AHEAD OF THE STRONG CLIPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
START THE DAY CLOSE TO NORMAL AND RISE DECENTLY THROUGH THE DAY...
EQUATING TO HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
SUN NIGHT/MON/MON NIGHT: THE POTENT CLIPPER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM AROUND CINCINNATI EARLY SUN EVENING (THE 00Z GFS IS A TAD
SLOWER THAN THE NAM WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST BY NEARLY 6 HRS)
ACROSS SW VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL/NE NC THROUGH MON MORNING. THE GFS
HAS BEEN TRENDING DEEPER AND A TAD FASTER WHILE THE ECWMF HAS
EXHIBITED MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY... SO FAVOR A GFS/ECMWF
COMPROMISE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE FASTER ECMWF. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS OVER NC EARLY MON MORNING BUT SHEARED
VORTICITY DIVING IN JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER NC FROM MID-LATE SUN EVENING (SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ONSET GIVEN THE INITIALLY HIGH CLOUD BASES AND DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER) WELL INTO MON... WITH LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA INTO LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
MON EVENING. THERE ISN`T A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS
SYSTEM... WITH PW EXPECTED TO REACH JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...
AND DESPITE IT BEING A PRETTY ROBUST TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW... THE
OVERALL LIFT IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG AS THE GREATEST UPPER DIVERGENCE
WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR SE. THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD NOT ONLY RESULT
IN FAIRLY LIGHT QPF BUT MAY ALSO HELP DETERMINE PTYPE. FORECAST
THICKNESSES INDICATE A PTYPE TRENDING FROM LIGHT RAIN TOWARD
INDETERMINANT (LIKELY MEANING LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED) BEFORE
TRENDING TOWARD A SNOW SOUNDING LATE MON. BUT THE MARGINAL LIFT AND
MOISTURE ABOVE THE -12C LEVEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A
PRIMARILY LIGHT-RAIN EVENT... ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY BE MIXED
WITH OR CHANGE TO WET FLAKES IF POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT LIFT CAN BE
ACHIEVED TO SATURATE THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE ALOFT. THIS OCCURRENCE
IS FAR FROM CERTAIN HOWEVER (ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES APPEAR BETTER NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER)... SO WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON A MOSTLY RAIN
EVENT WITH A SMALLER CHANCE OF INCONSEQUENTIAL WET SNOWFLAKES AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST MON AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WE MAY
ACTUALLY SEE A LULL IN ANY PRECIP MON AFTERNOON THEN RENEWED LIFT
MON EVENING AS THE STRONG NRN STREAM JET ACCELERATES TO THE SE WITH
A RESULTING UPTICK OF UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER NC. WILL BRING IN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE STARTING LATE SUN EVENING...
WITH SMALLER CHANCES SOUTH... CONTINUING THROUGH MON BEFORE TAPERING
DOWN MON NIGHT. EXPECT OVERALL AMOUNTS TO BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS... AS INDICATED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SREF MEMBERS. RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN MON... AND THICKNESSES AND
GUIDANCE SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH...
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. AS THE SURFACE LOW
INTENSIFIES MON NIGHT EAST OF NJ/SE OF CAPE COD... COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE INTO NC... AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY...
TUE: ADDITIONAL WEAK SHEARED VORTICITY WILL DIVE SE THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TUE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATING A WEAK ATTENDING SURFACE
LOW. THE GFS AND ITS FURTHER-NORTH VORTICITY TRACK GENERATES PATCHY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL NC TUE... BUT IT`S UNCLEAR IF WE`LL GET
ENOUGH RECOVERY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE AT THE
SURFACE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP UNDER 15%. WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
HOWEVER... AND THICKNESSES WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
WED-FRI: SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST WED... FOLLOWED BY EITHER FLAT WNW FLOW OR
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD
THEN TO OUR EAST... SO EXPECT A MODIFICATION OF TEMPS BY LATE WEEK
AS WE GET INTO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER WAVE SHIFTS BY TO OUR NORTH THU NIGHT/FRI... ACROSS IL/IN/OH
AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... WITH A
CORRESPONDING FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH CENTRAL NC FRI... POTENTIALLY
KNOCKING TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
-GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING REMAINING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WE WILL BE ENTERING A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHERE DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT MODE OF PRECIPITATION. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AFTER 9Z FROM RALEIGH
EASTWARD TO THE COAST WITH DRIZZLE TO LIGHT RAIN STILL POSSIBLE IN
THE WEST. MODELS HOLD ON TO PRECIPITATION THROUGH 18Z ALTHOUGH IT
MAY PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLIER THAN THAT. ONCE IT MOVES OUT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
CEILINGS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IFR/LIFR THROUGH MID MORNING OR SO
BEFORE STEADILY IMPROVING BACK TO VFR. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR
BY LATE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES MEANWHILE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
IFR/MVFR RANGES THROUGH A SIMILAR TIME PERIOD BEFORE RETURNING TO
VFR. WITH PRECIPITATION AND WINDS STAYING UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT...DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A DENSE FOG THREAT.
WINDS WILL VARY FROM CALM TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME
VARYING DIRECTION AS WELL BUT WITH SOME NORTHERLY COMPONENT. BY
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO WESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 10 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AT 5-10 KTS.
LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG TERM AFTER THE CURRENT
SYSTEM MOVES OFF. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PRESENT A FEW
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS A PORTION OF NW MN FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS...USING THE HRRR/RAP AS GUIDANCE
FOR TIMING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SOME
FLAKES WILL FALL FROM THE SKY...NOW JUST A MATTER OF HOW MUCH AND
EXACT LOCATION. FOR NOW...HAVE LIKELY POPS...WITH 0.5-1.0 INCH OF
SNOW. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER WAVE INDUCING 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THIS LOCATION.
REGARDING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT EVENT...00Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED BANDING
POTENTIAL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE REGION. MOST AREAS (EXCEPT THE FAR
WESTERN FA) SHOULD RECEIVE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER AMOUNTS DOES EXIST. HOW MUCH HIGHER
COULD THESE AMOUNTS BE IS THE DILEMMA. 00Z NAM12 SUGGESTS AROUND
0.40 INCHES QPF...AND MOST OTHER HI-RES SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
SOMETHING SIMILAR. SNOW RATIOS EXPECTED TO BE 10:1-12:1...SO THE
GENERAL 1-3 INCHES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-5 INCHES ACROSS AN
ISOLATED AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION. WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO
DEFINE THIS HIGHER SNOW AREA YET...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO WAIT FOR
THE ACTUAL BAND TO DEVELOP. INCOMING RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THE NAM PLACEMENT. HAVE UPDATED THE HWO TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS...HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS REMAINS
FURTHER WEST AND THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SUPPORT A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST IS TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE HAD POOR CONSISTENCY WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN
SOLNS AS WELL AS MODEL TO MODEL COMPARISONS. AS A RESULT
CONFIDENCE ON ITS TRACK AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND
REMAINS IN QUESTION. A BLEND OF MODELS SOLNS...GEM/EC/AND NAM HAVE
BEEN USED FOR THIS FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS IS FARTHER WEST WITH ITS
TRACK THUS IS OUTLIER.
TONIGHT WEST WINDS WILL LESSEN AND SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER NW MN WHERE SOME -SN IS
POSSIBLE WITH A SATURATED COLUMN AND WEAK LIFT. LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO INITIATE CHC POPS IN THE DVL BSN AND N
RRV LATE MORNING AND WIDE SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE IN
THE AFTN. STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE STRONGER THAN THE LAST FEW
CLIPPER SYSTEMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A 2 TO 4C WARM LAYER QUICKLY
COOLING SATURDAY AFTN ACROSS SW ND. MAKING A SHORT PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIP POSSIBLE HOWEVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT WILL BE ALL
SNOW. MOST INTENSE SNOW RATES WILL BE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH SNOW LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NO
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES EXPECTED WITH WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20MPH RANGE.
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING BANDS OF 2 TO 3 TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF TOTAL QPF. PLACEMENT OF COURSE THE CONCERN...THINKING WIDE
SPREAD ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
SUNDAY TO MONDAY WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO THE WAA INDUCED BY THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. A LIGHT
BRIEF PERIOD OF WAA PRECIP POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. WINDS BRISK
OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY RISING TEMPS INTO MONDAY MORNING. WESTERLY
SFC WINDS ON MONDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C FOR THE AREA
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN
THE 30S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
OUR EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...DEPICTING A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM
RIDGE AND BROAD EAST COAST TROUGH. AMPLIFIED PATTERN TURNS TO A
MORE ZONAL REGIME LATER IN THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS FALL...BUT THE
TRULY ARCTIC AIR WILL STILL BE LOCKED UP NORTH FOR A LITTLE WHILE
LONGER. LACK OF ANY IDENTIFIABLE SHORT WAVES TRANSLATES TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR TUE THROUGH THU. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW WILL DRIVE 850MB TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE ZERO LATE TUE INTO WEDNESDAY...MAKING THESE THE
WARMEST DAYS. STRONGER NW WINDS BEHIND THE LOW THURS WILL USHER IN
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL...THEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER STILL TO END
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
MUCH OF THE REGION HAS CLEAR SKY. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH...TAKING OVER THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TAF SITES BY LATER
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/WJB
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
416 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY. CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. TURNING COLDER
MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE ADV FOR THE NE KY COUNTIES AS WELL AS A FEW SE OH AND
W WV ONES UNTIL 11Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND IS
WORKING THRU THE ADV AREAS RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THOSE
AREAS BY 11Z. EXPECT REDUCED VSBY WITHIN A MODERATE BAND OF SNOW
AS THIS MOVES THRU AND AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO ONE INCH. STILL
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL WEAKEN ONCE INTO C WV.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS REACHED CRW TO CKB AS OF 07Z...WITH MAINLY
RAIN TO THE E...SAVE FOR HIGH RIDGES WHERE A MIX OF FRZ RAIN AND
SNOW WAS OBSERVED. SNOW AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH WHERE THE WINTER WX ADV CONT
UNTIL 09Z. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THAT A FEW HRS ALONG OH RIVER AND NE
KY AS THE HRRR STILL HAS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION BAND OVER THOSE
LOCALES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A COATING TO AN INCH E OF THE OH
RIVER THRU EARLY MORNING HRS. THIS GOES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
WILL HANDLE THE AREAS OF WV/SW VA NOT IN AN ADV WITH SPS FOR
DEFORMATION BAND AS IT WORKS THRU. MODELS SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING OF
THIS BAND AS IT WORKS THRU WV AND SW VA ZONES.
WIND DOWN THE SNOW BY 15Z ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LINGERING LOW
STRATUS STUBBORN TO LIFT ELSEWHERE BENEATH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. STILL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SCT OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TIGHT CLUSTER AMONGST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TDY...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO STRAY.
WILL BE TRACKING A FAST MOVING UPPER S/W TROF SWINGING THRU
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND TEMPS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS N ZONES AND IN THE N MOUNTAINS. KEPT A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE N MOUNTAINS WITH THIS. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD
DIP BACK TO OR BELOW FRZ...WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN DIPPING WELL INTO
THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY PULLING WARM AIR
NORTHWARD INTO REGION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THAT MEANS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD SEE A COLD RAIN...WITH SNOW MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL OHIO AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE COLDER AIR LAGS CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE CLIPPER...WAITING UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR OVERTURNING THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LIGHT SNOW REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...LIMITING ANY UPSLOPE.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER ON TUESDAY AND MODELS ARE SHOWING
LOTS OF 700 MB LIFT. THIS TIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THERMAL 850 MB TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THAN GUIDANCE AND WPC MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE FLUFF...MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...DRY WITH WARMING
ALOFT WEDNESDAY...MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THURSDAY.
NEXT FRONT STILL TIMED FOR LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. THEN
DRIER TURNING SOMEWHAT COLDER DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN BOTH CIGS AND VSBY WILL
CONTINUE THRU 12Z FOR THE TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION WILL FINISH
SWITCHING TO SN FOR THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS BY 09Z. HAVE SOME
TEMPOS IN TO HANDLE OCCASIONAL DROP IN VSBY BELOW 1SM...OTHERWISE
CARRYING PREDOMINATE 1SM AND LIFR/VLIFR CIGS FOR THE TERMINALS
EXCEPT IFR KEKN/KBKW.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BEHIND THE DEFORMATION BAND...AS THE
DEFORMATION BAND TRACKS THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE
VSBY WILL IMPROVE INTO MVFR AND EVENTUAL VFR AS THE SN ENDS...CIGS
WILL STAY IN THE IFR/VLIFR RANGE THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY LIFTING
AND SCT TO BKN MVFR BY MIDDAY...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU TONIGHT WITH
SCT SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS THE N TERMINALS. EXPECT SOME MVFR STRATUS
TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AMID THE SHSN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING THE IMPROVING CIGS/VSBY MAY VARY A FEW
HRS THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 01/24/15
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H L L H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H L L L L L H M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L L H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE AREA WIDE IN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ007-008-017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ086-087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
332 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY. CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. TURNING COLDER
MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS REACHED CRW TO CKB AS OF 07Z...WITH MAINLY
RAIN TO THE E...SAVE FOR HIGH RIDGES WHERE A MIX OF FRZ RAIN AND
SNOW WAS OBSERVED. SNOW AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH WHERE THE WINTER WX ADV CONT
UNTIL 09Z. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THAT A FEW HRS ALONG OH RIVER AND NE
KY AS THE HRRR STILL HAS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION BAND OVER THOSE
LOCALES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A COATING TO AN INCH E OF THE OH
RIVER THRU EARLY MORNING HRS. THIS GOES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
WILL HANDLE THE AREAS OF WV/SW VA NOT IN AN ADV WITH SPS FOR
DEFORMATION BAND AS IT WORKS THRU. MODELS SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING OF
THIS BAND AS IT WORKS THRU WV AND SW VA ZONES.
WIND DOWN THE SNOW BY 15Z ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LINGERING LOW
STRATUS STUBBORN TO LIFT ELSEWHERE BENEATH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. STILL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SCT OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TIGHT CLUSTER AMONGST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TDY...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO STRAY.
WILL BE TRACKING A FAST MOVING UPPER S/W TROF SWINGING THRU
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND TEMPS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS N ZONES AND IN THE N MOUNTAINS. KEPT A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE N MOUNTAINS WITH THIS. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD
DIP BACK TO OR BELOW FRZ...WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN DIPPING WELL INTO
THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY PULLING WARM AIR
NORTHWARD INTO REGION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THAT MEANS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD SEE A COLD RAIN...WITH SNOW MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL OHIO AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE COLDER AIR LAGS CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE CLIPPER...WAITING UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR OVERTURNING THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LIGHT SNOW REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...LIMITING ANY UPSLOPE.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER ON TUESDAY AND MODELS ARE SHOWING
LOTS OF 700 MB LIFT. THIS TIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THERMAL 850 MB TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THAN GUIDANCE AND WPC MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE FLUFF...MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...DRY WITH WARMING
ALOFT WEDNESDAY...MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THURSDAY.
NEXT FRONT STILL TIMED FOR LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. THEN
DRIER TURNING SOMEWHAT COLDER DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN BOTH CIGS AND VSBY WILL
CONTINUE THRU 12Z FOR THE TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION WILL FINISH
SWITCHING TO SN FOR THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS BY 09Z. HAVE SOME
TEMPOS IN TO HANDLE OCCASIONAL DROP IN VSBY BELOW 1SM...OTHERWISE
CARRYING PREDOMINATE 1SM AND LIFR/VLIFR CIGS FOR THE TERMINALS
EXCEPT IFR KEKN/KBKW.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BEHIND THE DEFORMATION BAND...AS THE
DEFORMATION BAND TRACKS THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE
VSBY WILL IMPROVE INTO MVFR AND EVENTUAL VFR AS THE SN ENDS...CIGS
WILL STAY IN THE IFR/VLIFR RANGE THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY LIFTING
AND SCT TO BKN MVFR BY MIDDAY...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU TONIGHT WITH
SCT SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS THE N TERMINALS. EXPECT SOME MVFR STRATUS
TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AMID THE SHSN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING THE IMPROVING CIGS/VSBY MAY VARY A FEW
HRS THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 01/24/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H M M M M H H M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H M M H M H H M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M H M M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H M H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE AREA WIDE IN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ007>011-017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ076-083-085>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
210 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY. CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. TURNING COLDER
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS REACHED CRW TO CKB AS OF 07Z...WITH MAINLY
RAIN TO THE E...SAVE FOR HIGH RIDGES WHERE A MIX OF FRZ RAIN AND
SNOW WAS OBSERVED. SNOW AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH WHERE THE WINTER WX ADV CONT
UNTIL 09Z. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THAT A FEW HRS ALONG OH RIVER AND NE
KY AS THE HRRR STILL HAS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION BAND OVER THOSE
LOCALES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A COATING TO AN INCH E OF THE OH
RIVER THRU EARLY MORNING HRS. THIS GOES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
WILL HANDLE THE AREAS OF WV/SW VA NOT IN AN ADV WITH SPS FOR
DEFORMATION BAND AS IT WORKS THRU. MODELS SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING OF
THIS BAND AS IT WORKS THRU WV AND SW VA ZONES.
WIND DOWN THE SNOW BY 15Z ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LINGERING LOW
STRATUS STUBBORN TO LIFT ELSEWHERE BENEATH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. STILL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SCT OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TIGHT CLUSTER AMONGST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TDY...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO STRAY.
WILL BE TRACKING A FAST MOVING UPPER S/W TROF SWINGING THRU
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND TEMPS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS N ZONES AND IN THE N MOUNTAINS. KEPT A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE N MOUNTAINS WITH THIS. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD
DIP BACK TO OR BELOW FRZ...WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN DIPPING WELL INTO
THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A 500MB RIPPLE MOVES THROUGH. NW FLOW BEHIND THIS
ENDS PRETTY QUICKLY AS QUICK MOVING CLIPPER DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST ON
SUNDAY. CLIPPER WILL CROSS CWA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A BIT SOUTH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO TRENDED THAT WAY...BRINGING SOME OF THE
HIGHER POPS THAT WERE PREVIOUS NORTH OF CWA INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. HAVE A FAIRLY SHARP SNOW GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF
CWA...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER AND INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL MODIFY HWO A BIT TO INCLUDE A TIER OR TWO OF
COUNTIES ACROSS THE NORTH FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEN TRANSITION TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NW FLOW AND
COLDER 850MB AIR ARRIVING MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THERMAL 850 MB TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THAN GUIDANCE AND WPC MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE FLUFF...MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...DRY WITH WARMING
ALOFT WEDNESDAY...MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THURSDAY.
NEXT FRONT STILL TIMED FOR LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. THEN
DRIER TURNING SOMEWHAT COLDER DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN BOTH CIGS AND VSBY WILL
CONTINUE THRU 12Z FOR THE TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION WILL FINISH
SWITCHING TO SN FOR THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS BY 09Z. HAVE SOME
TEMPOS IN TO HANDLE OCCASIONAL DROP IN VSBY BELOW 1SM...OTHERWISE
CARRYING PREDOMINATE 1SM AND LIFR/VLIFR CIGS FOR THE TERMINALS
EXCEPT IFR KEKN/KBKW.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BEHIND THE DEFORMATION BAND...AS THE
DEFORMATION BAND TRACKS THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE
VSBY WILL IMPROVE INTO MVFR AND EVENTUAL VFR AS THE SN ENDS...CIGS
WILL STAY IN THE IFR/VLIFR RANGE THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY LIFTING
AND SCT TO BKN MVFR BY MIDDAY...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU TONIGHT WITH
SCT SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS THE N TERMINALS. EXPECT SOME MVFR STRATUS
TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AMID THE SHSN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING THE IMPROVING CIGS/VSBY MAY VARY A FEW
HRS THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 01/24/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H M M M M H H M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H M M H M H H M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M H M M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H M H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE AREA WIDE IN SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ007>011-017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ076-083-085>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
111 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE PASSING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING A BRIEF BUT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA...IN THE FORM OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK
JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
HEIGHT OF THE STORM OCCURRING AT 06Z WITH HVY SNOW FALLING OVR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY IN REGION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT AT NOSE OF LL JET. HOWEVER...DUAL POL RADAR SIGNATURE AND SFC
OBS SHOWS CHANGEOVER LINE RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MASON DIXON LINE AT 06Z. ARRIVAL OF WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT
IN A CHANGE TO A RAIN/SLEET/FZRA MIX FROM HARRISBURG SOUTH AND
EASTWARD BTWN 07Z-08Z.
ELSEWHERE...A STEADY LIGHTER SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE REST OF
CENTRAL PA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE N TIER. AS LL JET AND BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST...EXPECT PRECIP RATES TO
DIMINISH MARKEDLY TOWARD DAWN. BASED ON BLEND OF LATEST HRRR AND
EARLIER CONSALL QPF AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS OF ARND 11/1...EXPECT
SNOW TOTALS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LOCAL AMTS ARND 7 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BEFORE CHANGEOVER. ICE ACCUMS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE S COUNTIES...AS TEMPS ARND 32F WILL
LIMIT ACCRETION RATES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BY DAWN SATURDAY...LL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LIGHTER /TO BRIEFLY MDT/ SNOW
/ASSOC WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING 850-700 MB DEFORMATION BAND/
IS LIKELY TO LAST THRU ARND MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS A BIT LONGER OVR
THE NE COUNTIES.
NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
TO EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD
EVENING...LIKELY PRODUCING -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SAT
EVENING.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY
SAT AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROFFY NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEKEND STORM. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PHASING WITH ANY SRN STREAM ENERGY.
MED RANGE MDLS ALL TRACKING A POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST SOUTH
OF PA SUN NIGHT. LATEST TRENDS ARE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE TRACK AND
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AND THUS SNOW TOTALS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
AVAILABLE AND EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT.
AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...WE
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW/SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S.
COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY...AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND
FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO.
MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS.
ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAIN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH MAJORITY
OF TERMINALS DROPPING TO IFR AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WORKS INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING ICING ISSUES.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN AND TAPER OFF MID TO LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH AREAS CLEARING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST...SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LIFT
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. AS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES
HOLD...WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
DROPPING TOMORROW NIGHT AT BFD AND JST...BEGINNING BETWEEN 22Z TO
02Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.
MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.
TUE...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ019-024-025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
344 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LEADING TO SOME
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND SUB FREEZING TEMPS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLACK ICE THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM IS
NOT TOO COLD AND HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT WSW WIND. LATEST MODELS ARE DEPICTING A
MORE POTENT UPPER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S. LATER TONIGHT. THE 00Z GFS AND NAM ACTUALLY HAVE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH A
ROUGHLY 1000 MB SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND TEMPS WILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH SOME CLOUDS INCREASING
TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE INTO MIDDLE AND
EAST TN BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE DEEPER SYSTEM...MOVING CLOSER TO
THE MIDSOUTH...AND INCREASED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT FROM DYR-MKL TO
THE TN RIVER. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOWER TO MID 50S ON SUNDAY
THOUGH IT WILL FEEL CHILLIER DUE TO GUSTY W/WNW WINDS. LINGERING
SHOWERS...PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER...OVER EASTERN SECTIONS WILL END
SUNDAY EVENING. A GOOD DEAL OF LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
30S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...IN THE 40S. QUIET
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS CLIMB A
LITTLE BIT...INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
BEYOND...THE GFS CONTINUES TO FEATURE AN INTERESTING SOLUTION FOR
NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD INVOLVE WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MIDSOUTH. WILL GET EVEN MORE INTERESTING IF THE ECMWF PICKS UP ON
THIS POSSIBILITY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN PRECIP-FREE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AS
CLEARING MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
FOR TUP TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE OPTIMISTIC HRRR CIG PROGS AT
TUP...AND APPEARED TO BE SUPPORTED BY RECENT GOES IR TRENDS. HAVE
BROUGHT VFR UP FORWARD BY SEVERAL HOURS AT TUP...HOWEVER THIS MAY
LEAD TO SOME GROUND FOG FORMATION AND A BRIEF DROP DOWN TO IFR/LIFR
TOWARD SUNRISE. MEM SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT CARGO
OPS.
VFR TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE SATURDAY.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1131 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
UPDATE...
ONLY UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WAS TO FINE-TUNE POPS AND
PRECIP TYPE. SLEET HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED AS WARM LAYER ALOFT HAS
ERODED. AS SUCH...PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPES LOOK TO BE RAIN AND
SNOW WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL EXIT THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
TVT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA/ALABAMA GULF COAST WHILE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/UPPER AIR PROFILER TRENDS CENTERS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DEFORMATION AXIS. AS OF 2 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S ACROSS ALL
LOCATIONS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INTO TONIGHT REMAINS THE
PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGE.
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT. AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...THE ABOVE MENTIONED
DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TONIGHT AND PERHAPS BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE MID
SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS/MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TONIGHT TO -1 TO -2C ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE. CONSEQUENTLY...RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AND/OR SLEET THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING. SOIL TEMPERATURES
STILL REMAIN WARM AND ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIMITED TO
GRASSY AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.
LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY NEXT
THURSDAY.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN PRECIP-FREE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AS
CLEARING MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
FOR TUP TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE OPTIMISTIC HRRR CIG PROGS AT
TUP...AND APPEARED TO BE SUPPORTED BY RECENT GOES IR TRENDS. HAVE
BROUGHT VFR UP FORWARD BY SEVERAL HOURS AT TUP...HOWEVER THIS MAY
LEAD TO SOME GROUND FOG FORMATION AND A BRIEF DROP DOWN TO IFR/LIFR
TOWARD SUNRISE. MEM SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT CARGO
OPS.
VFR TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE SATURDAY.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
322 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND HEAD
NORTHEAST TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO THE WINTRY WEATHER BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. AN SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
MONDAY AND COULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...NAMELY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 FROM
BLUEFIELD TO LYNCHBURG.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM EST SATURDAY...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM...AND SEE NO NEED TO
EXTEND THEM AT THIS POINT AS MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE
OVER AFTER MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WEST.
A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS...ONE EAST OF VA BEACH...AND THE OTHER NEAR
WILMINGTON NC...WILL STRENGTHEN INTO ONE LOW BY LATE
MORNING...TURNING OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST.
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH IN CHANGING ANY FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET
BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FURTHER EAST
EXPECT MAINLY RAIN WITH POCKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH
DAWN.
AS THE SFC LOW WINDS UP...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO 35 TO
45 MPH OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ROANOKE CLOSER TO
THE LOW.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 30S WEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. MORE SUNSHINE WILL
RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST SATURDAY...
THE MID ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
OVERNIGHT. HEIGHTS INCREASE ALOFT SUNDAY MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE
TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON
THEN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARM SUNDAY
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...THEREFORE P-TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN.
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL IN QUESTION AS WILL THE P-
TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD THE SURFACE
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST. 00Z MODELS ARE TRACKING THE LOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND OFF CAPE
HATTERAS MONDAY. THIS SOUTHERN TRACK WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF HWY 460 IN THE PIEDMONT.
ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY IS A TOUGH CALL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WHICH IS LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF GREENBRIER AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WHERE 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
MONDAY/S SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA COAST AND
BECOMES STATIONARY. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE...OR AT
LEAST A STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE...TO TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD AIR LEFT-OVER FROM
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. ALSO LEFT BEHIND THE FIRST WILL BE
DRIER AIR THAT THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVER COME TO PRODUCE
SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT OUT
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM ZIPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE.
ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY
FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 20S IN
THE PIEDMONT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL VARY
FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS TO THE UPPER 20S. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER
40S IN THE PIEDMONTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED
POPS IN THE WEST FRIDAY...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS...AND LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KROA/KDAN/KLYH. TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO FREEZING AT KBLF/KLWB AND KBCB SO SOME ICING OCCURRING
AT THESE AIRPORTS.
ONCE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH..THEN NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING ON WIND SHIFT AND COLDER AIR. COLDER
AIR WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SLEET THEN SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LOCAL WRF MODELS AS WELL AS HRRR SHOWED
THE TRANSITION TO SNOW BETWEEN 09Z/4AM AND 12Z/7AM.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND WILL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 00Z AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. KBLF MAY REMAIN IFR
THROUGH THE EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....PERSISTENT UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SUB VFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING MORE A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SNOW
TO THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GENERALLY MVFR TO
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW THERE MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ010>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1158 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A
VARIETY OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN TO AREAS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AS THE DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EST FRIDAY...
WINTER BE LEAVING WEATHER ADVISORIES INTACT WITH THIS ISSUANCE AND
CONTINUE THEM THROUGH 10AM SATURDAY MORNING.
00Z/7PM SOUNDING FROM RNK HAD A WARM NOSE AT 3500-4000FT AGL OF
39F/4C. REST OF THE SOUNDING BELOW 2500FT AGL WAS BELOW FREEZING.
SO LITTLE TO NO SLEET OR SNOW EXPECTED AT THIS POINT UNTIL SURFACE
LOW MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST BRINGING DEEPER COLD AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. LARGEST
ICING AMOUNTS STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM FLOYD
COUNTY AND BENT MOUNTAIN NORTH TO MONTEBELLO.
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SINCE 9PM AS THE DRY SLOT HAS ADVANCED INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. BUT LOCAL WRF AS WELL AS HRRR KEEP LOW LEVELS WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST UNTIL 09Z/4AM. NOT AS MUCH ACCUMULATION OF ICE IN THE
AREAS BELOW FREEZING IN THE DRY SLOT BUT STILL UPSLOPE AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF ROANOKE.
03Z/10PM MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED BEST PRESSURE FALLS HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA. THE PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND WILL MOVE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE THE LOW IS OFF THE
COAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST...EASTERN UPSLOPE ENDS
AND WESTERN UPSLOPE BEGINS. COLDER AIR WILL COME IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW...CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
THE REST OF SATURDAY WILL SEE LINGERING FLURRIES FOR THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE RIDGE...AND
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR ALL. WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPING EAST
OF THE RIDGE TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MIDDLE 40S FOR
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...
NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL BE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEAN LONG WAVE
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALIGN N-S OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW. FIRST
DISTURBANCE...OR ALBERTA CLIPPER...WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...MOVING FROM IOWA SUNDAY MORNING TO NORTHERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN PASS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A DISTINCT WARM NOSE...850 H TEMPS OF +3
DEG C...WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES OVERHEAD EARLY
MONDAY. AS SUCH...ANY PRECIP THAT ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE RAIN. ONCE THE WAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...THE WARM NOSE WOULD
THEN BE SQUASHED WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL RETURNING CLOSES ENOUGH TO
THE GROUND TO SUPPORT A P-TYPE OF SNOW.
MODELS MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST QPF TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE CYCLONE. THIS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL PRIMARILY BE
NORTH OF OUR CWA...WV...NRN VA...AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA. EVEN
SO...THERE IS STILL THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA...THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...AND ALONG OUR FAVORED
WESTERN SLOPES FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF NC. ATTM...THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...BUT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE FOR NORTHWESTERN
GREENBRIER PENDING THE TRACK OF THE SECOND REINFORCING SHORT WAVE
EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EAST COAST TUESDAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND LIFT OUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROF. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A LITTLE WETTER THAN ECMWF WITH MOUNTAINS
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
WITH READINGS FROM THE THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE
THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS/SNOW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE PIEDMONT. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND WEDNESDAY BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE UPPER 20S. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALLOWED FOR
ISOLATED POPS IN THE WEST FRIDAY...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS...AND LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KROA/KDAN/KLYH. TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO FREEZING AT KBLF/KLWB AND KBCB SO SOME ICING OCCURRING
AT THESE AIRPORTS.
ONCE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH..THEN NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING ON WIND SHIFT AND COLDER AIR. COLDER
AIR WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SLEET THEN SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LOCAL WRF MODELS AS WELL AS HRRR SHOWED
THE TRANSITION TO SNOW BETWEEN 09Z/4AM AND 12Z/7AM.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND WILL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 00Z AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. KBLF MAY REMAIN IFR
THROUGH THE EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....PERSISTENT UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SUB VFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING MORE A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SNOW
TO THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GENERALLY MVFR TO
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW THERE MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
VAZ010>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-
002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1048 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY
DUE TO THE LACK OF IT OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF MINNESOTA.
00Z RAOB DATA FROM MPX...ABR AND BIS ALL HAD 925MB DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS THAT WERE QUITE A BIT DRIER / 3 C OR SO / THAN THE
23.12Z/18Z GFS/NAM. AS SUCH...THOSE MODELS SUGGESTED TOO MUCH LOW
STRATUS ACROSS MINNESOTA. THE NEW 24.00Z NAM...NOW THAT IT HAS THE
RAOB DATA IN IT...HAS GREATLY DRIED OUT ITS 925MB RH FIELD. IN
FACT...THE 925MB RH FIELD LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE 23.21-22Z RAP RUNS
THAT WERE USED FOR THE AVIATION FORECASTS. IN ESSENCE...FOR MUCH
OF TONIGHT INTO MID-DAY SATURDAY...HAVE GREATLY REDUCED CLOUD
COVER ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 52. ADDITIONALLY...THE CLOUD THAT IS
COMING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SECTION LOOKS TO SCATTER
OR CLEAR OUT AROUND DAYBREAK...WHICH HAS BEEN INCORPORATED INTO
THE SKY FORECAST.
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF WINDS
AND AREAS RECEIVING CLOUDS TO HELP PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
FIRST FORECAST CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AS FLOW
TURNS NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS STRATUS INTO THE REGION. CURRENTLY THE
STRATUS DECK IS WORKING SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH
CLOUD BASES AROUND 1500 FT. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
SREF VISIBILITY PROBS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY TO
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND ACROSS THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA. IF THE
FOG DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING SO HAVE NOT
ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST.
THE NEXT FEATURE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT AND DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM
HAVE SHIFTED THE HEAVIER BAND SOUTHWEST NOW...IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE NAM IS STICKING TO A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION
PLACING THE HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
SNOW...CONFIDENCE ON LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE A 3-5 INCH BAND IS
NOT. MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTESTATE 94 SHOULD SEE
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH AN ENHANCED BAND POSSIBLE. WHERE
THIS BAND SETS UP A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. IF THE SOUTHERLY TRACK
HOLDS...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY NOT SEE ANY SNOW. THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST THERE COULD BE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. A LITTLE BIT TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN
AMOUNTS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT. A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THEN FINALLY SHIFTS
EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SOME MILDER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY REACHING THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS BRIEF WARM-UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE AIR BACK INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
STRATUS...OR REALLY LACK THEREOF...CONTINUES TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST. MVFR/VFR STRATUS DECK MOVING AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH MORE MVFR STRATUS LURKS
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST WI INTO NORTHEAST MN. WITH THE FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE GROUND TURNING NORTHWESTERLY...ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS
MVFR STRATUS COULD BRIEFLY GET INTO LSE BETWEEN 11-13Z...BEFORE
THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE WEST TO PUSH IT OUT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY AS DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO BE BROUGHT IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. DURING THE
EVENING...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
IOWA...SPREADING SNOW TOWARDS THE TAF SITES. FOR NOW JUST BROUGHT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR AROUND 03Z IN THE SNOW...SINCE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW LOOKS TO TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST DUE TO THE
SYSTEMS TRACK...WHICH WILL HELP PULL THE STRATUS THAT GETS STUCK
ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 TODAY INTO THE TAF SITES. BROUGHT CEILINGS
DOWN TO MVFR FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1040 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FRONT COMBINED WILL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0
C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP. SURFACE OBS AND A
FEW REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE PTYPE IS MAINLY SNOW...OCCASIONALLY
MIXED WITH SLEET. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIP BAND IS
FIGHTING DRY AIR...BUT PRECIP IS REACHING THE GROUND FROM MEDFORD TO
MARINETTE. THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY SNOW...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP
VSBYS TO 2SM IN SPOTS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AN AREA OF CLEARING
IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE FAR WESTERN UPPER
PENINSULA. THEN ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA IS
DIVING SOUTHEAST AND WILL REACH N-C WISCONSIN BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.
PRECIP AND SKY TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE AND MID-LEVEL FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
EVENING. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST UNTIL
7PM WHEN THINK ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. MODELS APPEAR TO BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS STRATUS. BUT ONCE IT MOVES IN...THINK OVERCAST CONDITIONS
WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE SNOWBELT.
BUT LOOKING AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE DEPTH IS SHALLOW BELOW
850MB SO AM SKEPTICAL THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR. BUT DOES NOT TAKE
MUCH THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...SO LEFT IN THE FORECAST TO MATCH UP
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.
SATURDAY...SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE U.P. BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY...THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE HARD TO REMOVE ESPECIALLY
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER.
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN WITH NW WINDS IN PLACE...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
MEAN FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS
FORECAST IS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF
CLIPPER SYSTEMS IMPACT THE AREA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WITH
THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR SOUTHWEST...CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE LOW AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE 12Z GFS
ONLY HAD SMALL QPF IN PARTS OF MARATHON COUNTY AND WOOD COUNTY
06Z-12Z SUNDAY...OTHER MODELS GENERALLY HAD QPF ACROSS MOST OR ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT CLOSE TO WHAT SURROUNDING OFFICES HAD
ALONG OUR BORDERS AND WHAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAD FOR POPS
AND QPF. THIS RESULTED IN A SMALLER CHANGE TO FORECAST SNOW
TOTALS THAN WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH HAD LESS THAN AN INCH EVEN IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WOULD SUGGEST.
SNOW TOTALS ARE EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WENT
NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. ONCE IT DEPARTS THERE
COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...BUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT
IS RATHER POOR.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS MAY NOT BE AS SOLID/PERSISTENT AS
EARLIER EXPECTED. WL PROBABLY SEE SOME BREAK IN LOWER CIGS
OVERNIGHT...SO WL ADD TO THE TAFS. SFC OBS SUGGEST A BAND OF S- WL
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT SWD ACRS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE, WE HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHL THROUGH 1PM THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS PASSED EAST AND OFFSHORE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY SOME
LIGHT SNOW FOR THESE AREAS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN, MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. WITH THE CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIP, THERE WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SOME IMPACT TO TRAVEL, AT LEAST UNTIL THE ROADS ARE
COMPLETELY CLEARED. THE EXTENSION OF THIS WARNING ALSO MATCHES
SIMILAR HEADLINE PRODUCTS FROM OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
ELSEWHERE FOR THE FORECAST AREA, THE RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO BE
SETTING UP JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, AND
ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. FARTHER SOUTH, WE HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS IN PLACE FOR RAIN FOR
FAR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND NJ, AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GOOD FLOW
OF MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES
JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAP AND HRRR
DATA.
OTHERWISE, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE COLUMN ALOFT DRIES OUT/WARMS UP TO
THE POINT WE LOSE OUR ICE CRYSTALS. MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY MAKE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH IT SHOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED. COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN BACK OVER TO
SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.
A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!
TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. .
THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.
FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR, IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY WET SNOW. TTN-ABE-RDG SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY DRYING OUT SOME AS WE NEAR MID-DAY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME DRYING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT...VFR. BRISK WNW WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD. CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.
TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-
055-060>062-103-105.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
553 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...
308 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
STARTING LATER TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND MUCH OF WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST U.S. A WEAK
COOL FRONT IS CROSSING THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS. COOL ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MODEST
WARM ADVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE WILD
CARD WITH TEMPS. STRATUS IS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING BUT SATELLITE SHOWS GAPS IN COVERAGE UPSTREAM.
GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER BUT SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ANY MEANINGFUL SUNSHINE DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HELPING
TEMPS SOMEWHAT. THIS IS MOST FAVORED SOUTH AND WEST SO WILL NUDGE
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY THERE WHILE CARRYING UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA.
THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A WAVE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA. EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG JET
PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY PUSHES EASTWARD AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE. THE WAVE OF
CONCERN WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A RESULT AND AMPLIFY AS IT DOES SO
INTO TONIGHT. THE SOUTH/WEST TREND OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
HAS CONTINUED AND DIFFERENCES REMAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME OF THE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE WHICH TAKES THE LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
THAN SOME OF THE LOWER RES OPTIONS. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW WILL NOT
TRACK NORTH OF ROUGHLY A BURLINGTON IOWA TO TERRE HAUTE INDIANA LINE
AT THIS POINT. WITH THE WAVE STILL TAKING SHAPE AND THE UPPER JET
STILL COMING ASHORE OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST FEEL THAT CONFIDENCE HAS
ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT WITH THE MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND
SUBSEQUENT 12Z GUIDANCE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE PLACEMENT BUT
HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE TREND OF WHAT OCCURS. PRECIP IS ON
TRACK TO QUICKLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT/AFTER
06Z/ AND SOUTHWEST AREAS STILL LOOK TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW AND
EVEN SOME SLEET THROUGH MID MORNING WHEN COLD AIR WILL TAKE OVER
CHANGING THINGS TO SNOW. PEAK PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE AFTER
DAYBREAK INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING SETTING UP A DECENT FETCH DOWN LAKE
MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE SUB PAR BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ARE PROBABLY SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SOME
MINIMAL ENHANCEMENT...MAINLY DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE FLUX.
GUIDANCE VARIES WITH LIQUID OUTPUT WITH SOME RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS
NOTED PROBABLY SUGGESTIVE OF STRONG BANDING WHICH IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 0.5 INCHES AND
FORCING OF 6 TO MAYBE 9 HOURS PEAK LIQUID AMOUNTS OF 0.3 TO 0.4
INCHES STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. LOCATION OF THESE AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH AMOUNTS OF ONLY AROUND 0.1 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH SOUTHERN AREAS ALSO SEEING A MIX NOT ALL OF
THE LIQUID WILL GO TOWARD SNOW ACCUMULATION. THUS HIGHEST SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR JUST TO THE NORTH...THOUGH WITH SOMEWHAT LOW
LIQUID EQUIVALENT. WILL DEPICT THE PEAK SNOWFALL FROM ROUGHLY
LASALLE COUNTY EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80
TO ROUGHLY KANKAKEE TO RENSSELAER. WILL CARRY 2-4 INCHES FOR THIS
AREA WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING TO ABOUT AN INCH ALONG THE WI
BORDER...WITH 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CHICAGO METRO TO
AROUND 3 POSSIBLY 4 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CHICAGO METRO.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH.
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
IF ANY LAKE EFFECT LINGERING GIVEN POOR INVERSION HEIGHTS.
HEADLINE POTENTIAL...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN
THAT A FURTHER SOUTH SHIFT IS STILL PLAUSIBLE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS
WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
FAIRLY WET SNOW RATIOS BLOWING WILL BE MINIMIZED BUT PROBABLY STILL
OCCUR. THERE IS ALSO A WINDOW FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WHERE THE FALLING SNOW AND WIND MAY PUSH VISIBILITIES DOWN
UNDER A HALF OR QUARTER MILE...BUT THIS MAY OCCUR OVER A RATHER
SMALL AREA. EXPECT TO NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE PEAK
SNOW AREA BUT AGAIN THE LOCATION MAY SHIFT AND IF BANDING DEVELOPS
THE SWATH OF SNOW COULD REALLY NARROW SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE
SYSTEM EVOLVE A LITTLE BIT MORE BEFORE DECIDING WHICH AREAS WILL SEE
THE BIGGEST IMPACT. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR NOW.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
308 AM CST
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A MUCH BETTER DEFINED RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY. ANOTHER WAVE
WILL BE TRAVERSING THE RIDGE THEN DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY BRINGING LOW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT TURNING WINDS
MORE NORTHERLY. LAKE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL BUT COULD
SEE SOME FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY DEVELOP FOR TUESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
ON A LOW CROSSING THE AREA FIRST THING THURSDAY BRINGING MIXED
PRECIP POTENTIAL OR EVEN JUST RAIN. COLDER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. OVERALL
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* PATCHY MVFR CIGS 2500-3000 FT THIS MORNING.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AGAIN THIS EVENING.
* SNOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY MORNING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 1-3 INCHES.
* WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KT TODAY/THIS EVENING...BECOMING
NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN STRONG/GUSTY NEAR 30 KTS BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING DURING THE DAY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
PATCHY MVFR CIGS 2500-3000 FT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...IN LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECTATION IS THAT MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT
BY MIDDAY. WESTERLY WINDS 260-290 DEGREES NEAR 10 KT WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO QUICK MOVING ALBERTA-CLIPPER WHICH RAPIDLY
MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS A PERIOD OF SNOW...AND
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...TO THE TERMINALS. PERHAPS AM LEAST
CONFIDENT ABOUT CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS GUIDANCE SATURATES THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRIOR TO MOISTURE
MOVING IN ALOFT. HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF MVFR
CIGS REDEVELOPING AND EVENTUALLY LOWERING A BIT ALONG WITH SOME
MINOR VIS REDUCTION IN HAZE. MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN SNOW
DEVELOPING PRIOR TO 12Z...WITH CIG/VIS CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
IFR/LIFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT AND
SATURATION. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE
DEEPENING AS IT PASSES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS
SLACKING THIS EVENING AND THEN TURNING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY TOWARD MORNING...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 KT SUNDAY. SNOW EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS TERMINALS...WITH BLOWING SNOW/DRIFTING GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM IN MVFR CIG HEIGHT AND TRENDS THIS MORNING. MEDIUM-LOW
WITH REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN SNOW TIMING LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND WITH CIG/VIS
TRENDS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR...CHANCE OF SNOW AND MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
238 AM CST
MAIN MARINE CONCERNS FOCUS ON THE PERIOD FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...AS NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FAST-MOVING DEEPENING ALBERTA-CLIPPER LOW
WHICH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHERN INDIANA DURING THE DAY.
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM THIS MORNING...LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING EAST OF
JAMES BAY ACROSS QUEBEC...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND WEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TODAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NORTH AND INCREASING BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST QUEBEC. BY
TONIGHT...THE FAST-MOVING CLIPPER WILL ALSO ALREADY BE ENTERING
IOWA AND MOVING INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE
DEEPENING A BIT. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL ALSO
HELP TO TURN WINDS NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THEM ALL THE WAY TO THE
SOUTH END OF THE LAKE AS THE LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A PERIOD OF
SOLID 30 KT NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH 2/3 OR 3/4 OF THE LAKE
SUNDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 30 KTS (MARGINAL GALE FORCE) DURING
THE DAY. WITH THE LOW MOVING QUICKLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS QUICKLY AS THEY INCREASED EARLY IN
THE DAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE IL/NW IND NEARSHORE
WATERS FROM ABOUT 6 AM CST SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
THE STRONG WINDS AND RESULTING WAVES.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO APPEAR RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY
NIGHT QUICKLY BEING DISPLACED MONDAY BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS
WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING INTO THE 25 KT RANGE FOR A
TIME MONDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THE LOW THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...FILLING AS A DEEP LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS
THE LAKE TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MOVES INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...6 AM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
536 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
A weak surface trof is expected to push across the area this morning
switching our winds more into a west to northwest direction. In
addition, latest satellite data and surface observations indicate
another band of clouds approaching from the northwest, immediately
behind the weak frontal boundary. Based on its current movement, it
appears the eastern half of the forecast area will be affected the
most from the southeastward moving clouds later this morning. This
will have an impact on afternoon highs with our east and northeast
counties trending a bit below guidance, with low to mid 40s common,
while over west central and southwest Illinois, not as much cloud
cover is expected and as a result we should push into the mid or
upper 40s this afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
00Z forecast model suite has trended further south and west surface
low pressure track going se into central IA (1003 mb) by 06Z/midnight
tonight, into south central IL by 18Z/noon Sunday, and nearing the
eastern KY and WV border by 06Z/midnight Sunday night. Have trended
a bit higher with qpf over central IL Sunday along with cooler temps
Sunday/Sunday night and bringing chances of snow further south with
the cooler air/further south track of storm system. Have increasing
chances of light rain after midnight tonight over central IL with
just slight chances of light rain late tonight in southeast IL from
I-70 southeast. Light snow could mix with light rain late tonight
north of I-74, but most areas should be rain overnight with lows in
the low to mid 30s. Raised pops to 60-90% Sunday with highest pops
northern counties where rain changes to snow especially late Sunday
morning/afternoon. Have snow chances as far south as I-70 by late
Sunday afternoon with southeast IL seeing light snow too during
Sunday evening before ending overnight Sunday night. Have 1-2 inches
of snow ne of a Canton to Lincoln to Paris line Sunday and Sunday
evening with locally higher amounts 2-3 inches in far ne CWA. A
winter weather advisory may eventually be needed in ne counties but
will issue SPS for now due to models shifting track of low pressure
past few runs. Highs Sunday range from mid 30s northern counties to
40-45F from Springfield to Terre Haute south with mid 40s near
Lawrenceville. Temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday
afternoon.
Another clipper system diving se across the western Great Lakes
Monday and Monday night to bring a chance of light snow showers to
northern/ne counties with best chances of accumulating light snow
appears to be ne of central IL. Highs Monday range from low to mid
30s from I-74 ne to the upper 30s to around 40F in sw counties. Dry
conditions expected Tue/Wed as high pressure settles into the upper
MS river valley Tue and into the Ohio river valley Wed. Highs in the
mid 30s to near 40F on Tue and climbing into the upper 30s to mid
40s Wed, with upper 40s from Jacksonville sw.
Surface low pressure system tracks into the Midwest and southern
Great Lakes region Wed night and Thu bringing a 20-30% chance of
light rain/snow. Models have trended quicker with this feature.
Above normal highs Thursday in the low to mid 40s with upper 40s in
southeast IL. Temps then cool behind this feature with highs in the
30s Friday and even colder temperatures expected next weekend with
another chance of light snow next Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
Band of MVFR cigs approaching PIA this hour and based on its
current movement will affect all but SPI thru the morning hours.
Cig bases range from 2500-3500 feet with the western edge of
the cloud deck possibly skirting PIA to the east, but for now,
will include an hour or two of the cigs at the PIA airport.
Short term models suggest some IFR or LIFR cigs and vsbys will
advect southeast into at least the northern half of the area
later this morning but have seen the models backing off that
solution in this hours run. Not seeing much in the upstream obs
to support this so will handle with a tempo group for a few hours
this morning, especially with the TAF sites along the western
periphery of the cloud band. The next weather system will push
southeast into our area after midnight bringing a gradual lowering
of the cigs along with the chance for rain to develop from northwest
to southeast after 06z. Surface winds today will be westerly at
10 to 15 kts and then start to back more into the southwest and
then south this afternoon and evening with speeds averaging from
7 to 12 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
536 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
A weak surface trof is expected to push across the area this morning
switching our winds more into a west to northwest direction. In
addition, latest satellite data and surface observations indicate
another band of clouds approaching from the northwest, immediately
behind the weak frontal boundary. Based on its current movement, it
appears the eastern half of the forecast area will be affected the
most from the southeastward moving clouds later this morning. This
will have an impact on afternoon highs with our east and northeast
counties trending a bit below guidance, with low to mid 40s common,
while over west central and southwest Illinois, not as much cloud
cover is expected and as a result we should push into the mid or
upper 40s this afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
00Z forecast model suite has trended further south and west surface
low pressure track going se into central IA (1003 mb) by 06Z/midnight
tonight, into south central IL by 18Z/noon Sunday, and nearing the
eastern KY and WV border by 06Z/midnight Sunday night. Have trended
a bit higher with qpf over central IL Sunday along with cooler temps
Sunday/Sunday night and bringing chances of snow further south with
the cooler air/further south track of storm system. Have increasing
chances of light rain after midnight tonight over central IL with
just slight chances of light rain late tonight in southeast IL from
I-70 southeast. Light snow could mix with light rain late tonight
north of I-74, but most areas should be rain overnight with lows in
the low to mid 30s. Raised pops to 60-90% Sunday with highest pops
northern counties where rain changes to snow especially late Sunday
morning/afternoon. Have snow chances as far south as I-70 by late
Sunday afternoon with southeast IL seeing light snow too during
Sunday evening before ending overnight Sunday night. Have 1-2 inches
of snow ne of a Canton to Lincoln to Paris line Sunday and Sunday
evening with locally higher amounts 2-3 inches in far ne CWA. A
winter weather advisory may eventually be needed in ne counties but
will issue SPS for now due to models shifting track of low pressure
past few runs. Highs Sunday range from mid 30s northern counties to
40-45F from Springfield to Terre Haute south with mid 40s near
Lawrenceville. Temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday
afternoon.
Another clipper system diving se across the western Great Lakes
Monday and Monday night to bring a chance of light snow showers to
northern/ne counties with best chances of accumulating light snow
appears to be ne of central IL. Highs Monday range from low to mid
30s from I-74 ne to the upper 30s to around 40F in sw counties. Dry
conditions expected Tue/Wed as high pressure settles into the upper
MS river valley Tue and into the Ohio river valley Wed. Highs in the
mid 30s to near 40F on Tue and climbing into the upper 30s to mid
40s Wed, with upper 40s from Jacksonville sw.
Surface low pressure system tracks into the Midwest and southern
Great Lakes region Wed night and Thu bringing a 20-30% chance of
light rain/snow. Models have trended quicker with this feature.
Above normal highs Thursday in the low to mid 40s with upper 40s in
southeast IL. Temps then cool behind this feature with highs in the
30s Friday and even colder temperatures expected next weekend with
another chance of light snow next Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
Band of MVFR cigs approaching PIA this hour and based on its
current movement will affect all but SPI thru the morning hours.
Cig bases range from 2500-3500 feet with the western edge of
the cloud deck possibly skirting PIA to the east, but for now,
will include an hour or two of the cigs at the PIA airport.
Short term models suggest some IFR or LIFR cigs and vsbys will
advect southeast into at least the northern half of the area
later this morning but have seen the models backing off that
solution in this hours run. Not seeing much in the upstream obs
to support this so will handle with a tempo group for a few hours
this morning, especially with the TAF sites along the western
periphery of the cloud band. The next weather system will push
southeast into our area after midnight bringing a gradual lowering
of the cigs along with the chance for rain to develop from northwest
to southeast after 06z. Surface winds today will be westerly at
10 to 15 kts and then start to back more into the southwest and
then south this afternoon and evening with speeds averaging from
7 to 12 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
329 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
A weak surface trof is expected to push across the area this morning
switching our winds more into a west to northwest direction. In
addition, latest satellite data and surface observations indicate
another band of clouds approaching from the northwest, immediately
behind the weak frontal boundary. Based on its current movement, it
appears the eastern half of the forecast area will be affected the
most from the southeastward moving clouds later this morning. This
will have an impact on afternoon highs with our east and northeast
counties trending a bit below guidance, with low to mid 40s common,
while over west central and southwest Illinois, not as much cloud
cover is expected and as a result we should push into the mid or
upper 40s this afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
00Z forecast model suite has trended further south and west surface
low pressure track going se into central IA (1003 mb) by 06Z/midnight
tonight, into south central IL by 18Z/noon Sunday, and nearing the
eastern KY and WV border by 06Z/midnight Sunday night. Have trended
a bit higher with qpf (averaging around a quarter of an inch) over
central IL Sunday along with cooler temps Sunday/Sunday night and
bringing chances of snow further south with the cooler air/further
south track of storm system. Have increasing chances of light rain
after midnight tonight over central IL with just slight chances of
light rain late tonight in southeast IL from I-70 southeast. Light
snow could mix with light rain late tonight north of I-74, but
most areas should be rain overnight with lows in the low to mid
30s. Raised pops to 60-90% Sunday with highest pops northern
counties where rain changes to snow especially late Sunday
morning/afternoon. Have snow chances as far south as I-70 by late
Sunday afternoon with southeast IL seeing light snow too during
Sunday evening before ending overnight Sunday night. Have 1-2
inches of snow ne of a Canton to Lincoln to Paris line Sunday and
Sunday evening with locally higher amounts 2-3 inches in far ne
CWA over Marshall and northeast Vermilion counties. A winter
weather advisory may eventually be needed in ne counties but will
issue SPS for now due to models shifting track of low pressure
past few runs. Highs Sunday range from mid 30s northern counties
to 40-45F from Springfield to Terre Haute south with mid 40s near
Lawrenceville. Temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday
afternoon.
Another clipper system diving se across the western Great Lakes
Monday and Monday night to bring a chance of light snow showers to
northern/ne counties with best chances of accumulating light snow
appears to be ne of central IL. Highs Monday range from low to mid
30s from I-74 ne to the upper 30s to around 40F in sw counties. Dry
conditions expected Tue/Wed as high pressure settles into the upper
MS river valley Tue and into the Ohio river valley Wed. Highs in the
mid 30s to near 40F on Tue and climbing into the upper 30s to mid
40s Wed, with upper 40s from Jacksonville sw.
Surface low pressure system tracks into the Midwest and southern
Great Lakes region Wed night and Thu bringing a 20-30% chance of
light rain/snow. Models have trended quicker with this feature.
Above normal highs Thursday in the low to mid 40s with upper 40s in
southeast IL. Temps then cool behind this feature with highs in the
30s Friday and even colder temperatures expected next weekend with
another chance of light snow next Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
Some minor adjustments. Mid clouds and southwesterly flow ahead of
an approaching boundary. Boundary and llvl moisture starting to
spread low clouds north of the ILX terminals...but expected to
develop along PIA/BMI/CMI line by morning. BKN MVFR in the
morning...anticipated to move through and out of the region later
in the day, accompanied by a more nwrly wind. May see the forecast
improve a little quicker, but for now...keeping the MVFR cigs in
there in the north. More optimistic across SPI and DEC and
scattering the 2kft deck in the morning and dominating with cirrus
per HRRR and Bufkit soundings.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
549 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON MAX TEMPS AND PRECIP
CHANCES ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS IN THE SREF/ECMWF/RUC FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY. DECENT MIXING WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +4C TO
+6C...PER BUFR SOUNDINGS...OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
TWEAKED UP MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THIS LOCATION...AS WELL AS
OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS AREA IS A LITTLE TRICKIER WITH MODELS
HOLDING ONTO SOME LOW STRATUS THAT IS FURTHER EAST THAN WHAT THEY
ARE DEPICTING AND THUS HAVE COOLER TEMPS FORECAST. THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION AND LEANED CLOSER TO THIS
SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHEAST AND BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES.
THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER BRINGING IN PRECIP FROM CLIPPER SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO NAM/ECMWF/SREF. FRM SOUNDINGS LOOK TO
BECOME COMPLETELY SATURATED B/T 23-02Z TODAY AND MCW NOT UNTIL
AFTER 00Z. HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST AFTER
22Z PER HRRR AND HOPWRF TIMING...AS WELL AS THE 4.0KM SPC WRF.
HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH QPF...IF ANY AT ALL BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
A NUMBER OF CHANGES WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE EXTENDED...FROM FAST
MOVING CLIPPERS TO A WARM UP FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. TONIGHTS CLIPPER QUICKLY MOVING INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH TRACK OF SYSTEM. NAM/GFS STILL FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK WHILE
00Z EURO NOW FARTHER SOUTH WITH TRACK AND SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR
COMING INTO THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THE TIMING ALSO VARIES BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THE EURO ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS SLOWER IN FULL ARRIVAL
WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE. HAVE LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE EURO DUE TO
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN PACKAGES AND PREVIOUS PREFERENCE OF DAY SHIFT.
MOISTURE CONCERNS ALSO COMING INTO PLAY. NAM/GFS BOTH HIGHER ON
QPF...NEARING .30 WHILE THE EURO IS ABOUT HALF AT .10 TO .15
INCHES. SNOWFALL RATIOS ARE GENERALLY GOING TO BE AROUND 12 TO 14
FOR THE SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND...SO SNOWFALL
TOTALS NOT TOO HIGH BUT STILL SOME CONCERNS ABOUT AMOUNTS. SECOND
CONCERN WILL BE THAT WE WILL HAVE A WARM DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS
WITH BEGIN WITH EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR A MIX NORTH CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE SYSTEM. THE 4KM WRF IS
SIMILAR IN TIMING TO THE EURO... BETWEEN 00 AND 02Z FOR A START
TIME ACROSS THE WEST. SOUNDINGS AND H850 TEMPS INDICATE THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE NORTH FIRST AND
THEN SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOOKING FOR A RANGE OF LESS THAN 1 INCH CENTRAL
AND SOUTH...SOME OF WHICH WILL MELT WHILE ACROSS THE NORTH
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH A FEW SPOTS NEARING 2.5 INCHES NORTH.
FOLLOWING THE LOW...WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT
LIKELY TO POSE ANY REAL PROBLEMS WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE. WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY LATE
DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY
ALOFT. BY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL TRACK FARTHER
NORTHEAST OF IOWA AND KEEP THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL
WARM TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WEST WHILE THE EAST WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S. MILD WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS MN WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF H850 TEMPERATURES
IN THE 6 TO 8C RANGE BY AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED HIGHS TO THE UPPER
40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S WEST. IF THE EURO IS MOST CORRECT...UPPER
50S MAY AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND POSSIBLY THE CENTRAL. WILL
MONITOR FOR CONTINUED TRENDS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. ONCE THE SYSTEM
PASSES EAST COLDER AIR RETURNS IN TWO PARTS...THURSDAY TEMPS FALL
ABOUT 15 DEGREES AND LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE TO ROUND OFF THE MONTH. LITTLE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...24/12Z
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING IN
SOME MVFR CIGS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP AND MVFR
VIS ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOUNDINGS TAKE SOME TIME TO COMPLETELY
SATURATE. CONFIDENT ALO/FOD/MCW WILL SEE -SN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AND HAVE MVFR CIGS/VIS MENTIONED AND POSSIBLY COULD SEE
IFR VIS/CIGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
943 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND EXIT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
QUICKLY DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND COULD END UP MOVING
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9AM UPDATE... SNOW HAS JUST MOVED INTO GRAY AND FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK. UPDATED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS, WHICH ARE RUNNING A BIT
COLDER. HAVE NOT CHANGED SNOW TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SNOW RATIO
AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
REMAIN THE STICKING POINT FOR THE FORECAST.
7 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RELATIVELY
MINOR CHANGES IN POP...QPF...AND SNOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SNOW HAS REACHED SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NO CHANGES IN WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUSLY...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF OF THE DELAWARE COAST AS OF 4 AM. A
PRETTY EXPANSIVE SNOW SHIELD IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS CONNECTICUT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
AND LIKELY ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE IF NOT AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD.
OVERALL...WE HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS. ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EASTWARD A BIT...AND
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SLIGHT CHANGE. ONE THING IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN...AND THAT IS THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. ONE TOWN MAY
HAVE 5 OR 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER TOWN 10 MILES TO THE WEST
MAY END UP WITH NEXT TO NOTHING. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS BY INCORPORATING THE LATEST HRRR POPS FOR THE
FIRST 12-15 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS BACK EDGE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. TODAY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE A CASE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT OUR MOUNTAINS ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY OR
MOSTLY DRY.
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEASTERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE SNOW-FREE AFTER 00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB +PNA PATTERN WILL DISAPPEAR AS
THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND BOTH UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT AND
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER ERN NO AMERICA AND ALLOW COLD CORE OF
AIR TO DROP EQUATORWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF WEEK. SO...COLD TO START THE EXTENDED...MAYBE A LITTLE WARM UP
TO AROUND NORMAL LATE WEEK...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN COLDER NEXT
WEEKEND.
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BE COLD WITH ENOUGH WIND SUNDAY EVE TO PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR -20 IN THE N...AND BLO ZERO EVERYWHERE
ELSE...BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL COLD
AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE N...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 10-20 F
RANGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS 500 MB TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINA COAST....DEPENDING ON
WHETHER YOU FOLLOW THE EURO OR GFS. THE EURO IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW AND INTENSIFYING THE
SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ENOUGH TO SPREAD
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE CWA. THE GFS KEEPS THE SFC FLOW
FURTHER E AND INTENSIFIES LATER...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS SNOW AND
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE IN THE ERN ZONES.
GIVEN THE SOLID PERFORMANCE OF THE EURO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION
AND HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA ON TUE. STILL IT LOOKS
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...SO ANY SNOW WILL
HAVE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIO.
SHOULD SEE NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND HIGHS ON WED LIMITED TO THE TEENS TO AROUND
20 AGAIN. AS THAT INTENSE LOW HEADS NE THROUGH THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR THUS...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER
NH/ME...AND A BIT OF WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES AND BRINGS THE COLD BACK BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE BECOMING IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW BY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE. POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW LATE MON INTO TUE EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR BY WED...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST WATERS AS COASTAL STORM
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SCA LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS A GOOD BET SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SCA POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
GALES TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND
E.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
MEZ018>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ008-009-011-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
933 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY TODAY
AND THEN ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD
INTO OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM. THE
NORTHERN SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE
THE SOUTHERN SNOW WILL INTENSIFY. FOR THE MOST PART, THE FORECAST
HAS THIS COVERED. HAVE EXTENDED THE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
BY A FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING SNOW AND ALSO INCREASED
SNOW AMOUNTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING STORM TO AFFECT THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AND THERE
APPEARS TO BE A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT W/NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE
GETTING SHUT OUT ON THIS EVENT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRUCIAL NOT ONLY TO QPF AND SNOWFALL BUT ALSO TO THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE.
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP MATCHED UP WELL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS W/TAKING THE SFC LOW FROM THE CAROLINAS
TODAY TO THE NOVA SCOTIA REGION. LATEST PRECIP ANALYSIS AT 06Z
SHOWED THAT TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER THE DELMARVA.
THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLL IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY AS ONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS DECENT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM 1000-700MBS THAT SETS UP ACROSS
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIP/SNOWFALL RATES. BLYR TEMPS WILL
BE CRUCIAL ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY. DECIDED
TO USE CONSENSUS APCH W/THIS EVENT AND BRING A NOSE OF WARMER IN
THE LLVLS OVER THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST. THIS TRANSLATES TO MID
30S AT THE SURFACE ALLOWING SNOW TO GO TO RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN FOR A
PERIOD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO FALL BACK AFTER ABOUT 8 PM WITH PRECIP GOING BACK TO SNOW
W/SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. BACK TO THE W AND N, BLYR TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. ALL WINTER HEADLINES REMAIN IN
PLACE AS IS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY
AS THE HEAVY BOUT OF PRECIP THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION W/THE
COOLING TEMPS COULD ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO CLOSE IN NEAR 7
INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITING AND EASTPORT AREAS.
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN AND END LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL ADD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW W/OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
SHOULD DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH AND MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWN EAST BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL TO ABOUT 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE NORTH AND 10 TO 15 CENTRAL
AND DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD WITH SUB
ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER FOR TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
WARRANTED BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH DOWN EAST AND COASTAL AREAS ONCE AGAIN
APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
ANY SNOW WILL WIND DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS AND VFR FOR BGR AND BHB. THIS WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM KHUL DOWN TO KBHB W/SOME SNOW AND
CONDITIONS GOING TO MVFR AND IFR. LIFR IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
FOR KBGR AND KBHB IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND SOME TURBULENCE.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT BY MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SNOW LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB
TERMINALS. VFR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS/SEAS ARE STARTING TO COME UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
PER 07Z OBS. WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO
HIT 40S OUT OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 7 TO 11 FT BY LATER TONIGHT.
SOME MINOR OVERWASH ALONG HANCOCK COUNTY NEAR SEAWALL ROAD AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY IS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
NEAR SHORE MODEL INDICATED THAT ANY OVERWASH WOULD BE MINOR. THE
DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO SUNDAY WITH
WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
MONDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE GALES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-
029-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ005-006-
030-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
708 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND EXIT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
QUICKLY DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND COULD END UP MOVING
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RELATIVELY
MINOR CHANGES IN POP...QPF...AND SNOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SNOW HAS REACHED SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NO CHANGES IN WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUSLY...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF OF THE DELAWARE COAST AS OF 4 AM. A
PRETTY EXPANSIVE SNOW SHIELD IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS CONNECTICUT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
AND LIKELY ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE IF NOT AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD.
OVERALL...WE HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS. ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EASTWARD A BIT...AND
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SLIGHT CHANGE. ONE THING IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN...AND THAT IS THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. ONE TOWN MAY
HAVE 5 OR 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER TOWN 10 MILES TO THE WEST
MAY END UP WITH NEXT TO NOTHING. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS BY INCORPORATING THE LATEST HRRR POPS FOR THE
FIRST 12-15 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS BACK EDGE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. TODAY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE A CASE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT OUR MOUNTAINS ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY OR
MOSTLY DRY.
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEASTERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE SNOW-FREE AFTER 00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB +PNA PATTERN WILL DISAPPEAR AS
THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND BOTH UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT AND
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER ERN NO AMERICA AND ALLOW COLD CORE OF
AIR TO DROP EQUATORWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF WEEK. SO...COLD TO START THE EXTENDED...MAYBE A LITTLE WARM UP
TO AROUND NORMAL LATE WEEK...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN COLDER NEXT
WEEKEND.
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BE COLD WITH ENOUGH WIND SUNDAY EVE TO PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR -20 IN THE N...AND BLO ZERO EVERYWHERE
ELSE...BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL COLD
AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE N...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 10-20 F
RANGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS 500 MB TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINA COAST....DEPENDING ON
WHETHER YOU FOLLOW THE EURO OR GFS. THE EURO IS MUCH MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW AND INTENSIFYING THE
SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ENOUGH TO SPREAD
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE CWA. THE GFS KEEPS THE SFC FLOW
FURTHER E AND INTENSIFIES LATER...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS SNOW AND
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE IN THE ERN ZONES.
GIVEN THE SOLID PERFORMANCE OF THE EURO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION
AND HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA ON TUE. STILL IT LOOKS
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...SO ANY SNOW WILL
HAVE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIO.
SHOULD SEE NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND HIGHS ON WED LIMITED TO THE TEENS TO AROUND
20 AGAIN. AS THAT INTENSE LOW HEADS NE THROUGH THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR THUS...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER
NH/ME...AND A BIT OF WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES AND BRINGS THE COLD BACK BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE BECOMING IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW BY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE. POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW LATE MON INTO TUE EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR BY WED...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST WATERS AS COASTAL STORM
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SCA LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS A GOOD BET SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SCA POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
GALES TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND
E.
&&
.COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE
AVOIDED TODAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE AS
THE WINDS FROM THE COASTAL STORM SHOULD NOT HAVE KICKED IN YET.
HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR FOR SOME POTENTIAL VERY MINOR SPASHOVER.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR MEZ018>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ008-009-011-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
643 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY TODAY
AND THEN ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO MATCH UP W/THE LATEST
CONDITIONS. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. SOME ENHANCEMENT WAS SHOWING UP ON THE
RADAR SOUTH OF PQI ALONG THE RT 1 CORRIDOR. DECIDED TO ADJUST THE
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STAYING W/70% EARLY
THIS MORNING AND DROPPED THE POPS N AND W OF THIS BAND TO CHANCE.
THE LATEST RAP WHICH WAS CLOSE ON THIS SETUP SHOWED FORCING TO
WEAKEN W/IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.
THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM TO AFFECT
THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A TIGHT PRECIP
GRADIENT W/NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE GETTING SHUT OUT ON THIS
EVENT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE CRUCIAL NOT ONLY TO QPF AND
SNOWFALL BUT ALSO TO THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP MATCHED UP WELL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS W/TAKING THE SFC LOW FROM THE CAROLINAS
TODAY TO THE NOVA SCOTIA REGION. LATEST PRECIP ANALYSIS AT 06Z
SHOWED THAT TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER THE DELMARVA.
THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLL IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY AS ONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS DECENT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM 1000-700MBS THAT SETS UP ACROSS
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIP/SNOWFALL RATES. BLYR TEMPS WILL
BE CRUCIAL ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY. DECIDED
TO USE CONSENSUS APCH W/THIS EVENT AND BRING A NOSE OF WARMER IN
THE LLVLS OVER THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST. THIS TRANSLATES TO MID
30S AT THE SURFACE ALLOWING SNOW TO GO TO RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN FOR A
PERIOD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO FALL BACK AFTER ABOUT 8 PM WITH PRECIP GOING BACK TO SNOW
W/SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. BACK TO THE W AND N, BLYR TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. ALL WINTER HEADLINES REMAIN IN
PLACE AS IS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY
AS THE HEAVY BOUT OF PRECIP THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION W/THE
COOLING TEMPS COULD ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO CLOSE IN NEAR 7
INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITING AND EASTPORT AREAS.
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN AND END LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL ADD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW W/OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
SHOULD DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH AND MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWN EAST BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL TO ABOUT 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE NORTH AND 10 TO 15 CENTRAL
AND DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD WITH SUB
ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER FOR TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
WARRANTED BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH DOWN EAST AND COASTAL AREAS ONCE AGAIN
APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
ANY SNOW WILL WIND DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS AND VFR FOR BGR AND BHB. THIS WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM KHUL DOWN TO KBHB W/SOME SNOW AND
CONDITIONS GOING TO MVFR AND IFR. LIFR IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
FOR KBGR AND KBHB IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND SOME TURBULENCE.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT BY MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SNOW LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB
TERMINALS. VFR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS/SEAS ARE STARTING TO COME UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
PER 07Z OBS. WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO
HIT 40S OUT OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 7 TO 11 FT BY LATER TONIGHT.
SOME MINOR OVERWASH ALONG HANCOCK COUNTY NEAR SEAWALL ROAD AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY IS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
NEAR SHORE MODEL INDICATED THAT ANY OVERWASH WOULD BE MINOR. THE
DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO SUNDAY WITH
WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
MONDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE GALES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
MEZ011-015>017-029-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
MEZ005-006-030-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1041 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~993 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL
OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GULF
OF MEXICO. LATEST RADAR INDICATES BULK OF WIDESPREAD RAIN NOW
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BAY...WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE FARTHER INLAND. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S (ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC THIS IS ACTUALLY A
SIGNIFICANT DROP FROM READINGS EARLIER THIS MORNING).
LAGGING UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WILL PIVOT EAST ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HRS. THIS ENERGY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO SPARK OFF A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE EARLY THIS
AFTN WRN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND LATER IN THE AFTN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING EAST TO THE COAST. WHILE THE BNDRY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY
WARM WITH MODEL SFC WET BULBS ABOVE FREEZING...THINKING IS THAT WE COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PCPN COULD TURN TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN HIGHER PCPN RATES. THUS HAVE KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW IN BY
THIS AFTN ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION. GENLY EXPECT NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE NRN NECK AND MD ERN SHORE LATE THIS AFTN AS THIS WOULD
TEND TO BE THE AREA WHERE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL COINCIDE WITH
THE MOST LEFTOVER MOISTURE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENLY BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S...BUT MANY AREAS W OF THE BAY WILL SEE READINGS
HOLD IN THE 30S UNTIL AFTER 21Z...WHILE NE AREAS MAY ACTUALLY SEE
TEMPS FALL W/ THE 2ND BAND OF SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST 00Z SUITE OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND
FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
RAPID DRYING OF ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL FORECAST DRY
CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TNGT OTHER
THAN A SML CHC FOR SNOW BRIEFLY IN THE EARLY EVENING ON THE MD ERN
SHR/NRN NECK. LOWS 30-35. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUN WITH HIGHS
RANGING FM THE LWR 50S S...TO THE MID TO UPR 40S N IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS SUN
EVENG/NGT AND SLIDES E THRU SRN VA/NC AND OFFSHR LATE SUN NGT THRU
MON. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS WITH REGARD TO
HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...AND DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTH OF LO
PRES JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST BY 00Z TUE. TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR
SUN NGT AND MON...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS AT LEAST THE
NRN HALF OF THE AREA DURING MON...AND LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW
EVERYWHERE MON NGT. THIS IS BY FAR LOOKING LIKE OUR BEST CHC FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THUS FAR THIS WINTER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. LOWS
SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 30S. HIGHS ON MON RANGING FM THE MID 30S
EXTRM NW/N...TO THE MID TO UPR 40S EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC (WITH
TEMPS LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THRU THE DAY). STAY
TUNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP/ANOMALOUS NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. TO BEGIN
THE EXTENDED...LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES MORNING AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVES DIGS OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE
TN/KY VALLEYS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TUES MORNING. ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. HEIGHT FALLS IN TANDEM
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP THRU MON
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO
PREDOMINATELY SNOW THRU THE NIGHT...REACHING SE VA/NE NC AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR SURE...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES AS
THE SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT EXPECT BRUNT OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE. THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE LATE TUES NIGHT-WEDS
MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM OFFSHORE TUES
NIGHT...BUT INCREASING NWLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION
THURS...AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS NIGHT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TUES-WEDS IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S. TEMPS REBOUND THURS-FRI INTO THE LOW-MID 40S.
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUES NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS MORNING
WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTN. LATEST OBS
REFLECT WIDESPREAD IFR W/SOME LCL LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST BY
EARLY AFTN. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS ACROSS THE AREA, SOME OF THE
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHRAS AS PCPN ENDS BY LATE
MORNING (PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE RIC). NOT EXPECTING ANY
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS AT TERMINAL WITH ANY RA/SN AND CHCS APPEAR A
BIT LESS THAN EARLIER, SO HV HELD OUT ONCE AGAIN FOR 12Z
ISSUANCE.ONCE THE MOISTURE CLEARS BY MID AFTN TO ERY EVENING...WILL
SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS COULD AGAIN CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PERSSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER SE VA/NC
COAST THIS MORNING. STILL NOTING SOME W-SW FLOW JUST E-NE OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES, WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NNW IN THE BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. HRRR AND RAP BOTH CATCHING ON TO THE
EXPECTED LULL IN SCA WINDS AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW
LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO ENSUE AS THE
LOW LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE WATERS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTN AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA. SWAN AND
WAVEWATCH SEEM TO MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH SEAS IN
THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS BECOME MORE WLY SAT AFTERNOON AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
AND CAA SURGE WANES. SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND RUN
THRU THE DAY SAT...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE
FAR LOWER CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT. SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT
(UP TO 7 FT IN THE NRN WATERS) THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING THRU THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY, WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAINING SUB-SCA
SUN/SUN NGT. THAT SUB-SCA CONDITION WILL BE SHORT LIVED,
HOWEVER...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA
WATERS MON...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY MONDAY MORNING, WITH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MON AFTERNOON/TUESDAY. LOW END GALES WILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 8-12FT
JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY NGT/TUESDAY. STRONG NWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE WATERS REMAIN
BTWN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE OH VALLEY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
631-633-635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM/SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
739 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WILL
CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...ELONGATED LO PRES WAS JUST E OF VA BEACH SW TO
NEAR THE SE NC AND NE SC CST. LATEST RDR INDICATED JUST SCTD AREAS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OCCURRING OVR THE CWA. THE LO WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST TODAY.
LAGGING UPR TROF WITH SOME STRONGER FORCING WILL LIFT ACRS THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNG THRU THE AFTN...BRINGING MORE PCPN WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS REMAINING OVR THE ERN/SERN COUNTIES. COULD SEE
ANOTHER 0.25-0.50" OF RAINFALL OVR THESE COUNTIES BEFORE THE PCPN
ENDS EARLY THIS EVENG. WHILE THE BNDRY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY
WARM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PCPN COULD TURN TO SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN HIGHER PCPN RATES. THUS HAVE KEEP MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW IN BY THIS AFTN ACRS N/W 1/2 OF THE CWA GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS ARE AT THEIR HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNG OVR EXTRM
SE VA AND CSTL NE NC IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WHERE THE CSTL
FRONT WAS SITTING JUST INLAND OF THESE AREAS. TEMPS ELSEWHERE WERE
RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. ONCE THAT BOUNDARY PUSHES
OFF THE CST LATER THIS MORNG...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 40S
DURING TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST 00Z SUITE OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND
FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
RAPID DRYING OF ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL FORECAST DRY
CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TNGT OTHER
THAN A SML CHC FOR SNOW BRIEFLY IN THE EARLY EVENING ON THE MD ERN
SHR/NRN NECK. LOWS 30-35. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUN WITH HIGHS
RANGING FM THE LWR 50S S...TO THE MID TO UPR 40S N IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS SUN
EVENG/NGT AND SLIDES E THRU SRN VA/NC AND OFFSHR LATE SUN NGT THRU
MON. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS WITH REGARD TO
HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...AND DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTH OF LO
PRES JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST BY 00Z TUE. TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR
SUN NGT AND MON...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS AT LEAST THE
NRN HALF OF THE AREA DURING MON...AND LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW
EVERYWHERE MON NGT. THIS IS BY FAR LOOKING LIKE OUR BEST CHC FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THUS FAR THIS WINTER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. LOWS
SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 30S. HIGHS ON MON RANGING FM THE MID 30S
EXTRM NW/N...TO THE MID TO UPR 40S EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC (WITH
TEMPS LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THRU THE DAY). STAY
TUNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP/ANOMALOUS NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. TO BEGIN
THE EXTENDED...LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES MORNING AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVES DIGS OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE
TN/KY VALLEYS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TUES MORNING. ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. HEIGHT FALLS IN TANDEM
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP THRU MON
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO
PREDOMINATELY SNOW THRU THE NIGHT...REACHING SE VA/NE NC AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR SURE...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES AS
THE SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT EXPECT BRUNT OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE. THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE LATE TUES NIGHT-WEDS
MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM OFFSHORE TUES
NIGHT...BUT INCREASING NWLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION
THURS...AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS NIGHT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TUES-WEDS IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S. TEMPS REBOUND THURS-FRI INTO THE LOW-MID 40S.
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUES NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS MORNING
WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTN. LATEST OBS
REFLECT WIDESPREAD IFR W/SOME LCL LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST BY
EARLY AFTN. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS ACROSS THE AREA, SOME OF THE
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHRAS AS PCPN ENDS BY LATE
MORNING (PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE RIC). NOT EXPECTING ANY
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS AT TERMINAL WITH ANY RA/SN AND CHCS APPEAR A
BIT LESS THAN EARLIER, SO HV HELD OUT ONCE AGAIN FOR 12Z
ISSUANCE.ONCE THE MOISTURE CLEARS BY MID AFTN TO ERY EVENING...WILL
SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS COULD AGAIN CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PERSSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER SE VA/NC
COAST THIS MORNING. STILL NOTING SOME W-SW FLOW JUST E-NE OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES, WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NNW IN THE BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. HRRR AND RAP BOTH CATCHING ON TO THE
EXPECTED LULL IN SCA WINDS AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW
LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO ENSUE AS THE
LOW LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE WATERS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTN AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA. SWAN AND
WAVEWATCH SEEM TO MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH SEAS IN
THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS BECOME MORE WLY SAT AFTERNOON AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
AND CAA SURGE WANES. SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND RUN
THRU THE DAY SAT...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE
FAR LOWER CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT. SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT
(UP TO 7 FT IN THE NRN WATERS) THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING THRU THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY, WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAINING SUB-SCA
SUN/SUN NGT. THAT SUB-SCA CONDITION WILL BE SHORT LIVED,
HOWEVER...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA
WATERS MON...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY MONDAY MORNING, WITH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MON AFTERNOON/TUESDAY. LOW END GALES WILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 8-12FT
JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY NGT/TUESDAY. STRONG NWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE WATERS REMAIN
BTWN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE OH VALLEY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
631-633-635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM/SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
627 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THEN A CLIPPER LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 224 AM SATURDAY...
AS OF 6Z A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD PARALLELING I-95 INTO EASTERN GA. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW AND OUT TO SEA AROUND
THE TIDEWATER VA AREA. IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG THE COAST...BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. MOST
OF OUR CWA IS ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S NW TO SE AND DEWPOINTS RANGING THE SAME WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS.
WHATS LEFT OF THE CAD WEDGE HAS KEPT THESE SHORTWAVES CONFINED TO
EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE AND THAT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND FOR THE MOST PART OUT OF OUR AREA. EASTERN COUNTIES MAY
SEE SOME MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING BUT ANY POSSIBLE
THUNDER WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
THE MORE LIKELY MODE OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE TRIANGLE OUT TO THE TRIAD. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
COMPARED TO THOSE SEEN EARLIER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE BIG
FORECAST QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL RAIN LINGER INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE RAP HAS THE CAD WEDGE BREAKING DOWN BY ABOUT 10Z BUT
PRECIPITATION LINGERS ON UNTIL 18Z AND BEYOND. THIS 18Z TIME FRAME
IS ALSO BEING FAVORED BY THE OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND
LOOKING AT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...RADAR RETURNS THAT WOULD POSSIBLY
AFFECT OUR AREA EXTEND DOWN INTO THE FL PANHANDLE SO THAT IS NOT
UNREASONABLE. GUT FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE
EAST OF OUR AREA SO EXPECT ONLY ANOTHER TENTH OR TWO IN THE TRIAD
WITH UP TO A HALF OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN EXTREME EASTERN AREAS BUT
JUST OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH SEEMS MORE LIKELY.
LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST AS LONG AS PRECIPIATION IS AROUND WITH
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUT COMPLETELY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO FROM A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING TO MORE WESTERLY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THIS WIND SHIFT WILL COME SOME GUSTINESS
AS WELL WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 10KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS.
LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL BE TRICKY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BACK UNDER THE WEDGE...FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN LOW TO MIDDLE
30S FOR THE TRIAD. ALONG THE FRONT HOWEVER LOWS COULD BE AS HIGH AS
THE MID 40S. CLINTON IS STILL REPORTING 57 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS EVEN GOLDSBORO IS
REPORTING 48 DEGREES AT THIS TIME. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON A MUCH MORE EVEN TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR THE HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY...
SUN: EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF SUNDAY... AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS WEAKLY AND BRIEFLY INTO NC FROM THE SW WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN FROM
MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AHEAD OF THE STRONG CLIPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
START THE DAY CLOSE TO NORMAL AND RISE DECENTLY THROUGH THE DAY...
EQUATING TO HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
SUN NIGHT/MON/MON NIGHT: THE POTENT CLIPPER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM AROUND CINCINNATI EARLY SUN EVENING (THE 00Z GFS IS A TAD
SLOWER THAN THE NAM WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST BY NEARLY 6 HRS)
ACROSS SW VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL/NE NC THROUGH MON MORNING. THE GFS
HAS BEEN TRENDING DEEPER AND A TAD FASTER WHILE THE ECWMF HAS
EXHIBITED MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY... SO FAVOR A GFS/ECMWF
COMPROMISE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE FASTER ECMWF. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS OVER NC EARLY MON MORNING BUT SHEARED
VORTICITY DIVING IN JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER NC FROM MID-LATE SUN EVENING (SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ONSET GIVEN THE INITIALLY HIGH CLOUD BASES AND DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER) WELL INTO MON... WITH LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA INTO LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
MON EVENING. THERE ISN`T A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS
SYSTEM... WITH PW EXPECTED TO REACH JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...
AND DESPITE IT BEING A PRETTY ROBUST TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW... THE
OVERALL LIFT IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG AS THE GREATEST UPPER DIVERGENCE
WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR SE. THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD NOT ONLY RESULT
IN FAIRLY LIGHT QPF BUT MAY ALSO HELP DETERMINE PTYPE. FORECAST
THICKNESSES INDICATE A PTYPE TRENDING FROM LIGHT RAIN TOWARD
INDETERMINANT (LIKELY MEANING LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED) BEFORE
TRENDING TOWARD A SNOW SOUNDING LATE MON. BUT THE MARGINAL LIFT AND
MOISTURE ABOVE THE -12C LEVEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A
PRIMARILY LIGHT-RAIN EVENT... ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY BE MIXED
WITH OR CHANGE TO WET FLAKES IF POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT LIFT CAN BE
ACHIEVED TO SATURATE THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE ALOFT. THIS OCCURRENCE
IS FAR FROM CERTAIN HOWEVER (ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES APPEAR BETTER NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER)... SO WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON A MOSTLY RAIN
EVENT WITH A SMALLER CHANCE OF INCONSEQUENTIAL WET SNOWFLAKES AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST MON AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WE MAY
ACTUALLY SEE A LULL IN ANY PRECIP MON AFTERNOON THEN RENEWED LIFT
MON EVENING AS THE STRONG NRN STREAM JET ACCELERATES TO THE SE WITH
A RESULTING UPTICK OF UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER NC. WILL BRING IN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE STARTING LATE SUN EVENING...
WITH SMALLER CHANCES SOUTH... CONTINUING THROUGH MON BEFORE TAPERING
DOWN MON NIGHT. EXPECT OVERALL AMOUNTS TO BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS... AS INDICATED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SREF MEMBERS. RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN MON... AND THICKNESSES AND
GUIDANCE SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH...
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. AS THE SURFACE LOW
INTENSIFIES MON NIGHT EAST OF NJ/SE OF CAPE COD... COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE INTO NC... AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY...
TUE: ADDITIONAL WEAK SHEARED VORTICITY WILL DIVE SE THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TUE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATING A WEAK ATTENDING SURFACE
LOW. THE GFS AND ITS FURTHER-NORTH VORTICITY TRACK GENERATES PATCHY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL NC TUE... BUT IT`S UNCLEAR IF WE`LL GET
ENOUGH RECOVERY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE AT THE
SURFACE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP UNDER 15%. WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
HOWEVER... AND THICKNESSES WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
WED-FRI: SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST WED... FOLLOWED BY EITHER FLAT WNW FLOW OR
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD
THEN TO OUR EAST... SO EXPECT A MODIFICATION OF TEMPS BY LATE WEEK
AS WE GET INTO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER WAVE SHIFTS BY TO OUR NORTH THU NIGHT/FRI... ACROSS IL/IN/OH
AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... WITH A
CORRESPONDING FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH CENTRAL NC FRI... POTENTIALLY
KNOCKING TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
-GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. MODELS HOLD ON TO PRECIPITATION THROUGH
18Z ALTHOUGH IT MAY PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLIER THAN THAT.
ONCE IT MOVES OUT. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY.
CEILINGS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IFR/LIFR THROUGH MID MORNING OR SO
BEFORE STEADILY IMPROVING BACK TO VFR. SOME SITES STARTING TO
SCATTER OUT ON THE LOWEST LEVELS AND MOVING UP TO MVFR CEILINGS.
SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES ARE
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE AND MANY SITES ALREADY AT 10SM. VISIBILITIES
MAY BOUNCE AROUND A LITTLE BUT SHOULD STAY AT MVFR LEVELS OR HIGHER.
WINDS WILL VARY FROM CALM TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME
VARYING DIRECTION AS WELL BUT WITH SOME NORTHERLY COMPONENT. BY
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO WESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 10 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AT 5-10 KTS.
LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG TERM AFTER THE CURRENT
SYSTEM MOVES OFF. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PRESENT A FEW
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
655 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
GIVEN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
OVERNIGHT...ROAD TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THE MORNING...DESPITE RISING SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THUS...EXPANDED THE FREEZING RAIN MENTION TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...DID EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY GIVEN THE 09
THROUGH 11 UTC RAP SOUNDING ITERATIONS AT BAKER AND DICKINSON AND
THE 06 UTC GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. ALL DEPICT 45-55 KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER WITH NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH 800 MB.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING.
FINALLY...THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS...03 UTC SREF AND 00 UTC ECMWF ALL
SUGGEST HIGHS REMAINING ONLY IN THE 30S TODAY. THIS EQUATES TO A
BIT MORE SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN THIS AFTERNOON AREA WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
WEST...RAIN AND SNOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WEST AND CENTRAL...AND
GUSTY WINDS SOUTHWEST TODAY.
CURRENTLY...POTENT LEAD S/WV IMPULSE MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA AND WILL ENTER INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA 10-12Z. WE REMAIN
CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN DESPITE
AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S OVER WESTERN OBSERVATION SITES.
ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES ARE SUB-FREEZING SO ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL
LIKELY FREEZE CREATING ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS UNTIL SOLAR RADIATION
WARMS THE ROAD SURFACES QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. WE WILL FOR NOW
HIGHLIGHT THIS IMPACT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
NEXT EMBEDDED IMPULSE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
THIS MORNING WITH SUPPORT ALOFT FROM UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALONG TO EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL
ERODE AS THE DAY GOES ON SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE FREEZING RAIN
PROBLEMS AFTER SUNSET WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
MAINLY SNOW THIS EVENING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT
COOL...A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A MIX WILL BE
NORTH WHERE COOLING ALOFT OCCURS EARLIER...AND THE MOST FAVORABLE
AREA FOR ALL RAIN WILL BE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE FORECAST. AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AND INTO
THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA WITH SNOW CHANCES DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
BESIDES PRECIPITATION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY SOUTHWEST. BUFKIT INDICATES
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THESE STRONG WINDS TOUCHING MY FAR SOUTHWEST. 12Z GFS
STRONGER WITH THE WINDS AND NAM WEAKER SO SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR BOWMAN AND ADAMS COUNTY FOR NOW
AS THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PEAK
WINDS IN MY AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH A POTENTIAL TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REMAINING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. THE 00 UTC
NAEFS DEPICTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 90-97TH PERCENTILES
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED...WITH
PERHAPS LOWERS 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO RECORD
HIGHS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO A DEEPENING CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND AND THE TRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BEGIN AS A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX IN THE
FAR WEST BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. RAIN WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A
-RASN MIX THEN ALL SNOW FROM 00-06Z SUNDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING
KDIK TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
847 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY. CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. TURNING COLDER
MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY GRIDS...OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS REACHED CRW TO CKB AS OF 07Z...WITH MAINLY
RAIN TO THE E...SAVE FOR HIGH RIDGES WHERE A MIX OF FRZ RAIN AND
SNOW WAS OBSERVED. SNOW AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH WHERE THE WINTER WX ADV CONT
UNTIL 09Z. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THAT A FEW HRS ALONG OH RIVER AND NE
KY AS THE HRRR STILL HAS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION BAND OVER THOSE
LOCALES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A COATING TO AN INCH E OF THE OH
RIVER THRU EARLY MORNING HRS. THIS GOES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
WILL HANDLE THE AREAS OF WV/SW VA NOT IN AN ADV WITH SPS FOR
DEFORMATION BAND AS IT WORKS THRU. MODELS SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING OF
THIS BAND AS IT WORKS THRU WV AND SW VA ZONES.
WIND DOWN THE SNOW BY 15Z ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LINGERING LOW
STRATUS STUBBORN TO LIFT ELSEWHERE BENEATH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. STILL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SCT OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TIGHT CLUSTER AMONGST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TDY...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO STRAY.
WILL BE TRACKING A FAST MOVING UPPER S/W TROF SWINGING THRU
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND TEMPS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS N ZONES AND IN THE N MOUNTAINS. KEPT A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE N MOUNTAINS WITH THIS. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD
DIP BACK TO OR BELOW FRZ...WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN DIPPING WELL INTO
THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY PULLING WARM AIR
NORTHWARD INTO REGION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THAT MEANS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD SEE A COLD RAIN...WITH SNOW MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL OHIO AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE COLDER AIR LAGS CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE CLIPPER...WAITING UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR OVERTURNING THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LIGHT SNOW REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...LIMITING ANY UPSLOPE.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER ON TUESDAY AND MODELS ARE SHOWING
LOTS OF 700 MB LIFT. THIS TIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THERMAL 850 MB TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THAN GUIDANCE AND WPC MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE FLUFF...MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...DRY WITH WARMING
ALOFT WEDNESDAY...MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THURSDAY.
NEXT FRONT STILL TIMED FOR LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. THEN
DRIER TURNING SOMEWHAT COLDER DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN BOTH CIGS AND VSBY WILL
CONTINUE THRU 14Z FOR THE TERMINALS. HAVE SOME TEMPOS IN TO
HANDLE OCCASIONAL DROP IN VSBY BELOW 1SM THIS MORNING AS MODERATE
BAND OF SNOW TRAVERSES THE AREA.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BEHIND THE DEFORMATION BAND. WHILE
VSBY WILL IMPROVE INTO MVFR AND EVENTUAL VFR AS THE SN ENDS...CIGS
WILL STAY IN THE IFR/VLIFR RANGE THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY LIFTING
AND SCT TO BKN MVFR BY MIDDAY...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU TONIGHT WITH
SCT SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS THE N TERMINALS. EXPECT SOME MVFR STRATUS
TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AMID THE SHSN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING THE IMPROVING CIGS/VSBY MAY VARY A FEW
HRS THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CRW CONSISTENCY M L L M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H M M H M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE AREA WIDE IN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...SL/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
605 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY. CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. TURNING COLDER
MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE ADV FOR THE NE KY COUNTIES AS WELL AS A FEW SE OH AND
W WV ONES UNTIL 11Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND IS
WORKING THRU THE ADV AREAS RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THOSE
AREAS BY 11Z. EXPECT REDUCED VSBY WITHIN A MODERATE BAND OF SNOW
AS THIS MOVES THRU AND AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO ONE INCH. STILL
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL WEAKEN ONCE INTO C WV.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS REACHED CRW TO CKB AS OF 07Z...WITH MAINLY
RAIN TO THE E...SAVE FOR HIGH RIDGES WHERE A MIX OF FRZ RAIN AND
SNOW WAS OBSERVED. SNOW AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH WHERE THE WINTER WX ADV CONT
UNTIL 09Z. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THAT A FEW HRS ALONG OH RIVER AND NE
KY AS THE HRRR STILL HAS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION BAND OVER THOSE
LOCALES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A COATING TO AN INCH E OF THE OH
RIVER THRU EARLY MORNING HRS. THIS GOES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
WILL HANDLE THE AREAS OF WV/SW VA NOT IN AN ADV WITH SPS FOR
DEFORMATION BAND AS IT WORKS THRU. MODELS SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING OF
THIS BAND AS IT WORKS THRU WV AND SW VA ZONES.
WIND DOWN THE SNOW BY 15Z ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LINGERING LOW
STRATUS STUBBORN TO LIFT ELSEWHERE BENEATH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. STILL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SCT OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TIGHT CLUSTER AMONGST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TDY...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO STRAY.
WILL BE TRACKING A FAST MOVING UPPER S/W TROF SWINGING THRU
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND TEMPS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS N ZONES AND IN THE N MOUNTAINS. KEPT A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE N MOUNTAINS WITH THIS. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD
DIP BACK TO OR BELOW FRZ...WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN DIPPING WELL INTO
THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY PULLING WARM AIR
NORTHWARD INTO REGION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THAT MEANS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD SEE A COLD RAIN...WITH SNOW MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL OHIO AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE COLDER AIR LAGS CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE CLIPPER...WAITING UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR OVERTURNING THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LIGHT SNOW REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...LIMITING ANY UPSLOPE.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER ON TUESDAY AND MODELS ARE SHOWING
LOTS OF 700 MB LIFT. THIS TIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THERMAL 850 MB TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THAN GUIDANCE AND WPC MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE FLUFF...MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...DRY WITH WARMING
ALOFT WEDNESDAY...MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THURSDAY.
NEXT FRONT STILL TIMED FOR LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. THEN
DRIER TURNING SOMEWHAT COLDER DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN BOTH CIGS AND VSBY WILL
CONTINUE THRU 14Z FOR THE TERMINALS. HAVE SOME TEMPOS IN TO
HANDLE OCCASIONAL DROP IN VSBY BELOW 1SM THIS MORNING AS MODERATE
BAND OF SNOW TRAVERSES THE AREA.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BEHIND THE DEFORMATION BAND. WHILE
VSBY WILL IMPROVE INTO MVFR AND EVENTUAL VFR AS THE SN ENDS...CIGS
WILL STAY IN THE IFR/VLIFR RANGE THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY LIFTING
AND SCT TO BKN MVFR BY MIDDAY...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU TONIGHT WITH
SCT SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS THE N TERMINALS. EXPECT SOME MVFR STRATUS
TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AMID THE SHSN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING THE IMPROVING CIGS/VSBY MAY VARY A FEW
HRS THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H L L H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M L L L L L H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE AREA WIDE IN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
127 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A WINTER
STORM "MAY" BE BACK ON THE TABLE FOR SOME OF THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WHETHER OR NOT WE
HAVE A WINTER STORM...IT WILL BE VERY COLD MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...
FOR NOW GOING TO KEEP WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE EVEN THOUGH
MUCH OF CT...RI AND E MA ARE IN A LULL. WILL BE READY TO START
DROPPING WINTER HEADLINES ONCE THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENIC ZONE OVER
EASTERN NY STATE AT 18Z MOVES ACROSS. DEFORMATION ZONE AND LOW/MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENIC FORCING IS KEEPING A BAND OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHERN MIDDLESEX AND NW ESSEX
COUNTIES. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE WARNING AREA SHOULD END UP WITH 5
TO 8 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL...ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HILLS OF NW MIDDLESEX COUNTY.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON BANDING AND 2 METER
TEMPERATURES.
1045 AM UPDATE...
RAIN/SNOW LINE PARTLY A FUNCTION OF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND
HENCE SEEING SOME BACK AND FORTH PTYPE ACROSS SE MA AND RI. WE ARE
MAINTAINING THE SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST AS STILL
LOOKING GOOD OVERALL EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO FAR N MIDDLESEX COUNTY.
RADAR INDICATES PRECIPITATION LIGHTENING ACROSS CT AT 1045 AM AND
ANTICIPATE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY LESSENING ACROSS
EASTERN MA BETWEEN 11 AND 12 NOON. WHERE THE PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY LESSENS...MAY SEE A CHANGE TO SLEET AND RAIN FOR A
WHILE. ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE MA...THE PRECIPITATION MAY LESSEN A
LITTLE BUT NOT AS MUCH DUE TO AN ANTICIPATED DEFORMATION ZONE
ALONG WITH FRONTOGENIC FORCING HOLDING ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AFT ABOUT 4 PM...WILL SEE WINDS BACKING TO NNW AND NW AND A
CRASHING OF HEIGHTS AND THICKENESSES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. TIMING OF THE END OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM FROM WEST TO EAST.
ALTHOUGH NOT REALLY ANTICIPATING A TRUE FLASH FREEZE...THERE IS A
CONCERN OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN
PORTION OF AREA WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW AND
CAUSING SLUSH TO FREEZE. HRRR TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE HANDLING
CURRENT CONDITIONS WELL AND ARE PRIMARY TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
SOURCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
815 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA IN THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. HEAVY SNOW MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AND SLEET
FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID LEVEL LOW/S INTENSIFY ANOTHER BURST OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW EXPECT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. TOTAL ACCUMS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES EXPECTED. THE SNOW IS WET SO THERE IS A RISK FOR SOME DOWNED
TREE LIMBS/ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND FELT IT WAS WORTH AN UPGRADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS ONGOING IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN CLOSE TO 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ONSET AND
WE COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE WINTRY MIX BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. IN FACT PORTIONS OF SW CT HAVE ALREADY SEEN OVER
3-6 INCHES AS OF 630 AM.
LOOKING AT OKX DUAL-POL RADAR...APPEARS MIXING LINE FOR RAIN/SNOW
IS JUST APPROACHING THE CT SOUTH COAST. ACROSS LONG ISLAND THEY
ARE SEEING ALL RAIN WHERE AS IN CT IT IS STILL SNOWING. THIS LINE
IS PROGRESSING NORTHWARD QUICKLY...SO WE MAY START SEEING SOME
MIXING IN WESTERLY AND SOUTH COUNTY RI WITHIN THE HOUR.
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW TOTALS ESP ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE BURST OF SNOW BUT THUS FAR EVERYTHING IS ON TRACK
FOR THIS SYSTEM.
MORE DETAILS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM BELOW:
HIGHLIGHTS...
* FAST MOVING COASTAL STORM TODAY.
* NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR NORTHEAST MASS.
* CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET POTENTIAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
PIKE.
* STRONG WINDS FOR THE SOUTHEAST MA THIS EVENING.
HEADLINES...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AS SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREV FORECASTERS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANYONE WILL SEE 10 INCHES DUE TO THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW AND HOW
PROGRESSIVE THIS SYSTEM IS. DID ADD COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY TO THE
WARNING AS THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO DECENT FGEN AND OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION.
ALSO ADDED NEWPORT COUNTY IN RHODE ISLAND AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH TO
THE ADVISORY AS THEY COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE
ONSET BUT WILL CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX WHICH COULD MAKE
THINGS SLICK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN.
OVERVIEW...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHEAST HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AND BOMB
OUT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THEN PREV RUNS HOWEVER THIS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY SINCE THERMAL PROFILES ARE ISOTHERMAL...ONE DEGREE CAN
ADD OR SUBTRACT SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SNOW AMOUNTS.
FOR THIS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARDS THE 00Z NAM/EC/RGEM WHICH ARE ALL
IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER. FEEL THE GFS QPF IS A LITTLE UNDERDONE.
THE 06Z NAM CAME IN RATHER WARM THEN REST OF GUIDANCE AND ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART. SO EVEN FORECAST GUIDANCE IS STILL FLIP-FLOPPING ON
THERMAL FIELDS WITHIN 3-6 HOURS OF THIS EVENT. THE 00Z TREND IS ALSO
FASTER SO HAVE SPEED THE SYSTEM UP WITHIN THE FORECAST BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. APPEARS THAT TONIGHT WE MAY JUST SEE A FEW FLAKES ON THE CAPE
AS THIS SYSTEM EXIT THE REGION QUICKLY. LASTLY...MODELS ARE ALSO
INDICATING A GOOD COLD CONVEYOR BELT SET-UP ON THE BACKSIDE SO
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN MASS WHICH COULD SEE
DESCENT SNOW AMOUNTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
1) TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE...
PRECIP HAS ALREADY ENTERED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD OVER
SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE REGION BY 7AM. AS NOTED BY PREV
FORECASTERS...THIS SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO LACK OF
BLOCKING UPSTREAM. SINCE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED THE
ONSET...EXPECT PRECIP TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 5-
9PM.
P-TYPE ISSUES ARE TRICKY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A DIFFERENCE OF ONE
DEGREE CAN CAUSE CHANGES WITH P-TYPE. SNOW WILL START AREA WIDE
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS THANKS TO OVERRUNNING FROM THE
WAA. THERMAL PROFILES ARE STILL WAVY...SO BELIEVE THAT A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN CT...RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO BOS WHEN TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM
AT 850MB. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN AFTER THE INITIAL ONSET OF SNOW ACROSS
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ALL SNOW WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS IN MASS.
TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THIS EVENT...WILL GENERALLY BE 3-6 INCHES WITH
SOME 6 TO 9 INCH REPORTS ALONG THE WORCESTER HILLS AND INTO INTERIOR
NORTHEAST MASS.
2) RISK FOR NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW...
THERE IS A RISK FOR A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA IS IN INTERIOR ESSEX COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF MIDDLESEX
COUNTY THAT IS ALONG THE I-495 BELT. IT WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WARM
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
ALSO THERMAL FIELDS SOUTH OF THE PIKE ARE TO MARGINAL AND WITH MIX
MOVING IN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER. WHERE THIS HEAVY BAND
SETS-UP THE RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES AND DOWN TREE LIMBS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY ESP IF SNOW TOTALS ARE 6+ INCHES.
3) STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO BOMBOGENESIS AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE
BENCHMARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM DROPS 40 MB IN 24 HOURS AS
IT WILL BE A SUB 970 MB ONCE IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE BENCHMARK. WIND
POTENTIAL IS LIMITED DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE WIND ADV CRITERIA ALONG THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
NO CHANGES TO WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
4) COASTAL FLOODING...
SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AFTER THE BRIEF BURST OF SNOW/WIND EXPECT A BREEZY AND COLD NIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRES ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO DRY AREA ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LEFTOVER PATCHY BLACK ICE
AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S BY DAYBREAK SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY
* WINTER STORM "MAY" BE BACK ON THE TABLE LATE MON/TUE - LOW
CONFIDENCE
* VERY COLD MON-WED WITH MODERATING TEMPS THU/FRI
DETAILS...
SUNDAY...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALREADY HAVE LIFTED INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY SUN AM. IN ITS WAKE...DRY BUT BLUSTERY AND
SEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...BUT
IT WILL FEEL A BIT COLDER WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND
30 MPH.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND
PARTICULARLY THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE NOW STRONGER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH CAPTURES LOW
PRESSURE ALLOWING A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. KEEP IN MIND THIS IS JUST
ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN AND THE FIRST TO SHOW IT. MUCH OF THE 00Z
GUIDANCE IS STILL WAY SOUTHEAST AND PRETTY MUCH A MISS FOR MOST OF
THE REGION. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS WAS JUST A HICCUP OR IF THE
ECMWF AND A FEW OF THE GEFS ARE ONTO SOMETHING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REGARDLESS IF WE GET A WINTER STORM OR NOT...OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE ISLANDS WITH VERY COLD
NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OVER THE OCEAN. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD
MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE...WHEN HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE TEENS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...
IF WE DO END UP WITH THAT WINTER STORM...IT WOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END BY EARLY WED. STILL WILL BE VERY COLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS EXPECTED EARLY WED MORNING.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR. SOME MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST BY FRI...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOST AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN IMPROVE W TO E 22Z TO 01Z. RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING...ALTHOUGH ANY NEW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BEFORE FREEZING
THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NW. COULD BE A BURST OF SNOW AT CAPE COD TAF SITES
BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING WITH LOW VSBYS AND QUICK COATING TO AN INCH
DURING THE EVENING. AFTER ENDING EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
BUT WITH WIND GUSTS 20-30KT OUT OF THE NW...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 35 KT
LIKELY OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS. NW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING. RAIN NOW WILL LIKELY MIX BACK WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING EARLY EVENING...PROBABLY CHANGING BACK IN THE
21Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME. UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MIXED RAIN...SNOW AND
SLEET CHANGING BACK TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AFTER 20Z OR 21Z BEFORE
ENDING ENDING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 22Z. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING AFTER 22Z.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAYNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP IF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION
LATE MON INTO TUE. HIGHEST RISK SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE COAST DEPENDING ON TRACK OF
THE STORM.
WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHAT EVER HAPPENS WITH THE
STORM LATE MON INTO TUE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRENGTHEN COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY MOVE INSIDE THE 70N/40W
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THIS LOW WILL `BOMB` OUT...MEANING THAT
INTENSE PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS OUT OF THE N-NE...THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NW BY LATE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OVER. EXPECT
HEAVY RAIN AND FOG...POSSIBLY EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW CLOSER TO
THE SHORE. THE GALES BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO
ABOUT 15 FT ON THE OUTER SE WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KNOTS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. HOW CLOSE THIS
LOW TRACKS TO THE COAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...SHOULD HAVE STRONG SCA TO NORTHEAST GALE GUSTS LATE
MON/TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS. IF
COASTAL LOW TRACKS FURTHER WEST LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF...SEAS OF 20+
FEET AND STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE
DETERMINED BY TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW LATE MON INTO TUE. MAY HAVE
AT LEAST SOME LEFT OVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
**POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE**
1 PM UPDATE...LOOKS LIKE A SURGE OF GENERALLY .7 TO 1.0 FT AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE 2 TO 230 PM. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
POCKETS OF MINOR FLOODING COVERS THIS WELL. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE TO PRECLUDE ANY
COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE DURING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
1045 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGE IN THINKING REGARDING THE COASTAL FLOOD
RISK. TIDES ARE HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY BUT NOT ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OR SEAS BY THE TIME OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH
TIDE...2 TO 230 PM MOST E MA LOCATIONS. CURRENT SURGE IS AROUND OR
A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF A FOOT...PROBABLY BUILDING TO NEAR A FOOT
BY THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE...AIDED SOME BY RAPID PRESSURE FALLS.
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS STORM AND LACK OF ONSHORE
WIND/HIGH SEAS...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD
EVENT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE SOME POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE CYCLE. BOSTON HAS AN ASTRO TIDE OF 11.4 FEET AT 230 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A 0.5 TO 1 FOOT STORM SURGE ALONG WITH
FAIRLY RAPID PRESSURE FALLS. SO DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONG
WINDS/HIGH SEAS...EXPECT SOME POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
THERE IS A LOWER ASTRO HIGH TIDE OF 11.0 FEET IN BOSTON AT AROUND
230 AM SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME WINDS WILL BE
OFFSHORE SO WERE ONLY CONCERNED ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON/S HIGH TIDE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002-
003-008-009-017>021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ004>007-010>016-026.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
RIZ002>007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/THOMPSON
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1112 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A WINTER
STORM "MAY" BE BACK ON THE TABLE FOR SOME OF THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WHETHER OR NOT WE
HAVE A WINTER STORM...IT WILL BE VERY COLD MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
RAIN/SNOW LINE PARTLY A FUNCTION OF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND
HENCE SEEING SOME BACK AND FORTH PTYPE ACROSS SE MA AND RI. WE ARE
MAINTAINING THE SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST AS STILL
LOOKING GOOD OVERALL EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO FAR N MIDDLESEX COUNTY.
RADAR INDICATES PRECIPITATION LIGHTENING ACROSS CT AT 1045 AM AND
ANTICIPATE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY LESSENING ACROSS
EASTERN MA BETWEEN 11 AND 12 NOON. WHERE THE PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY LESSENS...MAY SEE A CHANGE TO SLEET AND RAIN FOR A
WHILE. ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE MA...THE PRECIPITATION MAY LESSEN A
LITTLE BUT NOT AS MUCH DUE TO AN ANTICIPATED DEFORMATION ZONE
ALONG WITH FRONTOGENIC FORCING HOLDING ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AFT ABOUT 4 PM...WILL SEE WINDS BACKING TO NNW AND NW AND A
CRASHING OF HEIGHTS AND THICKENESSES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. TIMING OF THE END OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM FROM WEST TO EAST.
ALTHOUGH NOT REALLY ANTICIPATING A TRUE FLASH FREEZE...THERE IS A
CONCERN OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN
PORTION OF AREA WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW AND
CAUSING SLUSH TO FREEZE. HRRR TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE HANDLING
CURRENT CONDITIONS WELL AND ARE PRIMARY TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
SOURCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
815 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA IN THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. HEAVY SNOW MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AND SLEET
FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID LEVEL LOW/S INTENSIFY ANOTHER BURST OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW EXPECT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. TOTAL ACCUMS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES EXPECTED. THE SNOW IS WET SO THERE IS A RISK FOR SOME DOWNED
TREE LIMBS/ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND FELT IT WAS WORTH AN UPGRADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS ONGOING IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN CLOSE TO 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ONSET AND
WE COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE WINTRY MIX BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. IN FACT PORTIONS OF SW CT HAVE ALREADY SEEN OVER
3-6 INCHES AS OF 630 AM.
LOOKING AT OKX DUAL-POL RADAR...APPEARS MIXING LINE FOR RAIN/SNOW
IS JUST APPROACHING THE CT SOUTH COAST. ACROSS LONG ISLAND THEY
ARE SEEING ALL RAIN WHERE AS IN CT IT IS STILL SNOWING. THIS LINE
IS PROGRESSING NORTHWARD QUICKLY...SO WE MAY START SEEING SOME
MIXING IN WESTERLY AND SOUTH COUNTY RI WITHIN THE HOUR.
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW TOTALS ESP ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE BURST OF SNOW BUT THUS FAR EVERYTHING IS ON TRACK
FOR THIS SYSTEM.
MORE DETAILS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM BELOW:
HIGHLIGHTS...
* FAST MOVING COASTAL STORM TODAY.
* NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR NORTHEAST MASS.
* CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET POTENTIAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
PIKE.
* STRONG WINDS FOR THE SOUTHEAST MA THIS EVENING.
HEADLINES...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AS SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREV FORECASTERS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANYONE WILL SEE 10 INCHES DUE TO THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW AND HOW
PROGRESSIVE THIS SYSTEM IS. DID ADD COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY TO THE
WARNING AS THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO DECENT FGEN AND OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION.
ALSO ADDED NEWPORT COUNTY IN RHODE ISLAND AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH TO
THE ADVISORY AS THEY COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE
ONSET BUT WILL CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX WHICH COULD MAKE
THINGS SLICK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN.
OVERVIEW...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHEAST HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AND BOMB
OUT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THEN PREV RUNS HOWEVER THIS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY SINCE THERMAL PROFILES ARE ISOTHERMAL...ONE DEGREE CAN
ADD OR SUBTRACT SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SNOW AMOUNTS.
FOR THIS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARDS THE 00Z NAM/EC/RGEM WHICH ARE ALL
IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER. FEEL THE GFS QPF IS A LITTLE UNDERDONE.
THE 06Z NAM CAME IN RATHER WARM THEN REST OF GUIDANCE AND ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART. SO EVEN FORECAST GUIDANCE IS STILL FLIP-FLOPPING ON
THERMAL FIELDS WITHIN 3-6 HOURS OF THIS EVENT. THE 00Z TREND IS ALSO
FASTER SO HAVE SPEED THE SYSTEM UP WITHIN THE FORECAST BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. APPEARS THAT TONIGHT WE MAY JUST SEE A FEW FLAKES ON THE CAPE
AS THIS SYSTEM EXIT THE REGION QUICKLY. LASTLY...MODELS ARE ALSO
INDICATING A GOOD COLD CONVEYOR BELT SET-UP ON THE BACKSIDE SO
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN MASS WHICH COULD SEE
DESCENT SNOW AMOUNTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
1) TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE...
PRECIP HAS ALREADY ENTERED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD OVER
SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE REGION BY 7AM. AS NOTED BY PREV
FORECASTERS...THIS SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO LACK OF
BLOCKING UPSTREAM. SINCE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED THE
ONSET...EXPECT PRECIP TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 5-
9PM.
P-TYPE ISSUES ARE TRICKY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A DIFFERENCE OF ONE
DEGREE CAN CAUSE CHANGES WITH P-TYPE. SNOW WILL START AREA WIDE
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS THANKS TO OVERRUNNING FROM THE
WAA. THERMAL PROFILES ARE STILL WAVY...SO BELIEVE THAT A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN CT...RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO BOS WHEN TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM
AT 850MB. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN AFTER THE INITIAL ONSET OF SNOW ACROSS
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ALL SNOW WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS IN MASS.
TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THIS EVENT...WILL GENERALLY BE 3-6 INCHES WITH
SOME 6 TO 9 INCH REPORTS ALONG THE WORCESTER HILLS AND INTO INTERIOR
NORTHEAST MASS.
2) RISK FOR NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW...
THERE IS A RISK FOR A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA IS IN INTERIOR ESSEX COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF MIDDLESEX
COUNTY THAT IS ALONG THE I-495 BELT. IT WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WARM
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
ALSO THERMAL FIELDS SOUTH OF THE PIKE ARE TO MARGINAL AND WITH MIX
MOVING IN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER. WHERE THIS HEAVY BAND
SETS-UP THE RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES AND DOWN TREE LIMBS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY ESP IF SNOW TOTALS ARE 6+ INCHES.
3) STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO BOMBOGENESIS AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE
BENCHMARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM DROPS 40 MB IN 24 HOURS AS
IT WILL BE A SUB 970 MB ONCE IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE BENCHMARK. WIND
POTENTIAL IS LIMITED DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE WIND ADV CRITERIA ALONG THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
NO CHANGES TO WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
4) COASTAL FLOODING...
SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AFTER THE BRIEF BURST OF SNOW/WIND EXPECT A BREEZY AND COLD NIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRES ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO DRY AREA ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LEFTOVER PATCHY BLACK ICE
AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S BY DAYBREAK SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY
* WINTER STORM "MAY" BE BACK ON THE TABLE LATE MON/TUE - LOW
CONFIDENCE
* VERY COLD MON-WED WITH MODERATING TEMPS THU/FRI
DETAILS...
SUNDAY...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALREADY HAVE LIFTED INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY SUN AM. IN ITS WAKE...DRY BUT BLUSTERY AND
SEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...BUT
IT WILL FEEL A BIT COLDER WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND
30 MPH.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND
PARTICULARLY THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE NOW STRONGER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH CAPTURES LOW
PRESSURE ALLOWING A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. KEEP IN MIND THIS IS JUST
ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN AND THE FIRST TO SHOW IT. MUCH OF THE 00Z
GUIDANCE IS STILL WAY SOUTHEAST AND PRETTY MUCH A MISS FOR MOST OF
THE REGION. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS WAS JUST A HICCUP OR IF THE
ECMWF AND A FEW OF THE GEFS ARE ONTO SOMETHING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REGARDLESS IF WE GET A WINTER STORM OR NOT...OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE ISLANDS WITH VERY COLD
NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OVER THE OCEAN. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD
MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE...WHEN HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE TEENS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...
IF WE DO END UP WITH THAT WINTER STORM...IT WOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END BY EARLY WED. STILL WILL BE VERY COLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS EXPECTED EARLY WED MORNING.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR. SOME MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST BY FRI...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NO RADICAL CHANGES FROM PRIOR FORECAST. ANTICIPATE THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ALL SNOW LWM-ORH-BAF AND
NW...AND A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AS MOST TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. SLEET AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT BOS...BDL...PVD...OWD
AND OTHER N CT...N RI...AND E MA AIRPORTS. AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...ANY WINTRY PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND QUICKLY MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NW. COULD BE A BURST OF SNOW AT CAPE COD TAF SITES
BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING WITH LOW VSBYS AND QUICK ACCUMS DURING THE
EVENING. AFTER ENDING EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BUT WITH
WIND GUSTS 20-30KT OUT OF THE NW.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING OF MIXING. LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE SNOW WILL MIX
WITH SLEET AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MIXED SNOW AND SLEET TO
ABOUT 20Z WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF MAINLY SNOW BEFORE
ENDING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 22Z. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP IF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION
LATE MON INTO TUE. HIGHEST RISK SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE COAST DEPENDING ON TRACK OF
THE STORM.
WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHAT EVER HAPPENS WITH THE
STORM LATE MON INTO TUE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRENGTHEN COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY MOVE INSIDE THE 70N/40W
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THIS LOW WILL `BOMB` OUT...MEANING THAT
INTENSE PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS OUT OF THE N-NE...THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NW BY LATE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OVER. EXPECT
HEAVY RAIN AND FOG...POSSIBLY EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW CLOSER TO
THE SHORE. THE GALES BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO
ABOUT 15 FT ON THE OUTER SE WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KNOTS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. HOW CLOSE THIS
LOW TRACKS TO THE COAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...SHOULD HAVE STRONG SCA TO NORTHEAST GALE GUSTS LATE
MON/TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS. IF
COASTAL LOW TRACKS FURTHER WEST LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF...SEAS OF 20+
FEET AND STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE
DETERMINED BY TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW LATE MON INTO TUE. MAY HAVE
AT LEAST SOME LEFT OVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
**POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE**
1045 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGE IN THINKING REGARDING THE COASTAL FLOOD
RISK. TIDES ARE HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY BUT NOT ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OR SEAS BY THE TIME OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH
TIDE...2 TO 230 PM MOST E MA LOCATIONS. CURRENT SURGE IS AROUND OR
A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF A FOOT...PROBABLY BUILDING TO NEAR A FOOT
BY THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE...AIDED SOME BY RAPID PRESSURE FALLS.
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS STORM AND LACK OF ONSHORE
WIND/HIGH SEAS...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD
EVENT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE SOME POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE CYCLE. BOSTON HAS AN ASTRO TIDE OF 11.4 FEET AT 230 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A 0.5 TO 1 FOOT STORM SURGE ALONG WITH
FAIRLY RAPID PRESSURE FALLS. SO DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONG
WINDS/HIGH SEAS...EXPECT SOME POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
THERE IS A LOWER ASTRO HIGH TIDE OF 11.0 FEET IN BOSTON AT AROUND
230 AM SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME WINDS WILL BE
OFFSHORE SO WERE ONLY CONCERNED ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON/S HIGH TIDE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002-
003-008-009-017>021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ004>007-010>016-026.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
RIZ002>007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1145 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON MAX TEMPS AND PRECIP
CHANCES ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS IN THE SREF/ECMWF/RUC FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY. DECENT MIXING WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +4C TO
+6C...PER BUFR SOUNDINGS...OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
TWEAKED UP MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THIS LOCATION...AS WELL AS
OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS AREA IS A LITTLE TRICKIER WITH MODELS
HOLDING ONTO SOME LOW STRATUS THAT IS FURTHER EAST THAN WHAT THEY
ARE DEPICTING AND THUS HAVE COOLER TEMPS FORECAST. THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION AND LEANED CLOSER TO THIS
SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHEAST AND BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES.
THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER BRINGING IN PRECIP FROM CLIPPER SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO NAM/ECMWF/SREF. FRM SOUNDINGS LOOK TO
BECOME COMPLETELY SATURATED B/T 23-02Z TODAY AND MCW NOT UNTIL
AFTER 00Z. HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST AFTER
22Z PER HRRR AND HOPWRF TIMING...AS WELL AS THE 4.0KM SPC WRF.
HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH QPF...IF ANY AT ALL BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
A NUMBER OF CHANGES WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE EXTENDED...FROM FAST
MOVING CLIPPERS TO A WARM UP FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. TONIGHTS CLIPPER QUICKLY MOVING INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH TRACK OF SYSTEM. NAM/GFS STILL FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK WHILE
00Z EURO NOW FARTHER SOUTH WITH TRACK AND SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR
COMING INTO THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THE TIMING ALSO VARIES BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THE EURO ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS SLOWER IN FULL ARRIVAL
WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE. HAVE LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE EURO DUE TO
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN PACKAGES AND PREVIOUS PREFERENCE OF DAY SHIFT.
MOISTURE CONCERNS ALSO COMING INTO PLAY. NAM/GFS BOTH HIGHER ON
QPF...NEARING .30 WHILE THE EURO IS ABOUT HALF AT .10 TO .15
INCHES. SNOWFALL RATIOS ARE GENERALLY GOING TO BE AROUND 12 TO 14
FOR THE SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND...SO SNOWFALL
TOTALS NOT TOO HIGH BUT STILL SOME CONCERNS ABOUT AMOUNTS. SECOND
CONCERN WILL BE THAT WE WILL HAVE A WARM DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS
WITH BEGIN WITH EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR A MIX NORTH CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE SYSTEM. THE 4KM WRF IS
SIMILAR IN TIMING TO THE EURO... BETWEEN 00 AND 02Z FOR A START
TIME ACROSS THE WEST. SOUNDINGS AND H850 TEMPS INDICATE THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE NORTH FIRST AND
THEN SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOOKING FOR A RANGE OF LESS THAN 1 INCH CENTRAL
AND SOUTH...SOME OF WHICH WILL MELT WHILE ACROSS THE NORTH
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH A FEW SPOTS NEARING 2.5 INCHES NORTH.
FOLLOWING THE LOW...WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT
LIKELY TO POSE ANY REAL PROBLEMS WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE. WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY LATE
DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY
ALOFT. BY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL TRACK FARTHER
NORTHEAST OF IOWA AND KEEP THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL
WARM TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WEST WHILE THE EAST WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S. MILD WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS MN WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF H850 TEMPERATURES
IN THE 6 TO 8C RANGE BY AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED HIGHS TO THE UPPER
40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S WEST. IF THE EURO IS MOST CORRECT...UPPER
50S MAY AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND POSSIBLY THE CENTRAL. WILL
MONITOR FOR CONTINUED TRENDS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. ONCE THE SYSTEM
PASSES EAST COLDER AIR RETURNS IN TWO PARTS...THURSDAY TEMPS FALL
ABOUT 15 DEGREES AND LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE TO ROUND OFF THE MONTH. LITTLE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z THEN CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING. CIGS WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD VFR
TO LOW END MVFR THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW OVERNIGHT AND WILL LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS EVENING THEN
BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY EARLY SUNDAY. PENDING HOW
MUCH SNOW FALLS OVERNIGHT...BLOWING SNOW MAY RESTRICT VSBYS AFT
12Z.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...DONAVON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
301 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
An upper level trough located across the northern plains this
afternoon will dig southeast into the mid MS river valley by Sunday
Afternoon.
The stronger ascent ahead of this upper level trough will remain
across the northern plains into the Midwest and OH river valley. The
mesoscale models show another area of stronger ascent developing
within the left exit region, ahead of an 80 KT H5 jet max, which
will dig from eastern MT this afternoon, southeast across western
KS, into northeast OK through the night. Both the Advanced Research
and Non-hydrostatic WRF model solutions show an area of light rain
developing across west central KS this evening in the region of the
left exit region of the H5 jet. ATTM, the area of light rain will
move southeast ahead of the H5 jet max and spread southeast across
south central KS into northeast OK through the night. The 12Z GFS
model is the only solution showing the area of steadier light rain
moving across the southern half of the CWA this evening. I will be
leaning more towards the ARW, NMM and HRRR solutions.
Most of the CWA will only see occasional sprinkles or very light
rain showers through the night into the morning hours of Sunday as
the H5 trough axis moves southeast. Forecast soundings continue to
show a drier layer air within the lowest 6,000 feet of the
atmosphere. Overnight lows will be mild with westerly winds of 10 to
20 MPH. Most areas should see overnight lows only dropping into the
upper 30s.
Sunday, as the upper trough amplifies across northern MO, wrap
around rain showers are possible across the northeast and east
central KS. These showers look to be light with only a trace
to 0.01 inch of QPF forecasted. A surface/925mb low will deepen
across northern MO through the day. Northwest winds will increase
through the mid morning hours to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 40
MPH. The southern counties of the CWA may flirt with wind advisory
criteria during the late morning and early afternoon hours. The
low-level CAA will only allow high temperatures to reach the lower
to mid 40s across the eastern half of the CWA, where clouds may
continue through most of the day. The western counties may see some
afternoon insolation which may help highs to reach into the mid to
upper 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
Sunday Night through Monday Night ...
By Sunday night, the vertically-stacked surface low and mid-level
low will be situated over the Ohio River Valley with
north-northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the central U.S. A
narrow ridge of surface high pressure will spill southward into the
forecast area Sunday night into Monday resulting in mostly clear
skies and light winds. As a result, decent radiational cooling will
help drop overnight low temperatures into the mid/upper 20s.
Models show the next surface low positioned over the far northern U.S.
and tracking toward the Great Lakes region through Monday night. An
associated cold front will extend southward across the Northern and
Central Plains Monday morning and is expected to skim southeastward
across the forecast area from late morning through the afternoon
hours. Since this front looks to barely extend far enough south into
the area, there should not be a strong wind shift associated with
this frontal passage. As a result, models show winds gradually
veering from southwest to west-northwest through the day. Soundings
are very dry so don`t even expect much in the way of cloud cover
with this frontal passage. With a thermal ridge in place just west
of the forecast area and decent downslope winds expected, should see
another mild day with high temperatures reaching into the upper 50s
east to middle 60s west. An area of surface high pressure will
advance into the Northern and Central Plains behind the front, with
mostly clear skies and light northwesterly winds resulting in low
temperatures dropping into the low 30s by Tuesday morning.
Tuesday through Saturday Night...
A pattern of benign weather is expected Tuesday through Friday as a
dry forecast remains in place. A wave will push through the area on
Wednesday evening; however, any precipitation associated with this
energy will be to the north of the area. The next mention of
precipitation is Saturday, associated with a shortwave amplifying in
the Rocky Mountains. Two completely different solutions are seen by
the models with the ECMWF proposing energy with this system will
stay well south keeping the area completely dry, while the GFS
solution continues to amplify this wave allowing for a moderate
amount of precipitation. Due to such a robust solution with the
GFS, have put in 20 percent chances for PoPs over the entire area
Saturday, with a chance for both rain and snow. As of right now,
confidence of how this system will play out is low and should
continue to be monitored.
As for temperatures, Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to be above
normal with highs topping out in the upper 50s/lower 60s. A weak
cold front associated with the system on Wednesday will lower
temperatures slightly Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid 40s
and lows below freezing. Saturday will be even cooler as winds
shift from the north bringing highs back to climatological normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southwest winds will
increase to 11 to 15 KTS with some gusts this afternoon. The wind gusts
will diminish after sunset. Northwest winds will increase to 14 to
17 KTS with gusts of 22 to 26 KTS after 12Z SUN. An upper level
disturbance will bring a chance for sprinkles or very light
showers across the terminals this evening.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller/Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1111 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUING
TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
STATES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN
FOR WESTERN KANSAS WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE SKIES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASED ON COMPARISON OF MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND ACTUAL RECORDED DAYTIME HIGHS, THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE TENDED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS IN THESE
DOWNSLOPE REGIMES. FOR TODAY WE HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ARE ALSO SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THIS RANGE.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER RANGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
FEBRUARY 3RD AND BEYOND WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR WESTERN KANSAS,
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND PROGRESS FROM WEST
OF BAJA ON JAN 28TH TO NEAR BAJA ON JAN 31ST AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FEB 2ND, BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IN WESTERN KANSAS.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY (HIGHS MAINLY 50S) AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW (NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY)
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL COOL THE
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
FALLING FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S OR 40S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
12-20 KT TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE 15-25 KT TOMORROW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 36 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 61 34 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 58 31 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 61 31 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 64 38 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
P28 64 36 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1251 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND EXIT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
QUICKLY DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND COULD END UP MOVING
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230PM UPDATE... DUAL POL RADAR AND REPORTS INDICATE SOME SLEET
MIXING IN IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN NH. WHILE THE BACK END OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING INTO WESTERN NH, THE LOW ITSELF CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN AND TRACK TOWARDS THE BENCHMARK. IN MAINE HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDATED TEMPS AND ADDED SLEET TO SE NH. HAVE INCREASED
SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY FOR THE MIDCOAST WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS MOST
LIKELY.
9AM UPDATE... SNOW HAS JUST
MOVED INTO GRAY AND FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATED TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS, WHICH ARE RUNNING A BIT COLDER. HAVE NOT CHANGED SNOW
TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SNOW RATIO AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN THE STICKING POINT FOR
THE FORECAST.
7 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RELATIVELY
MINOR CHANGES IN POP...QPF...AND SNOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SNOW HAS REACHED SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NO CHANGES IN WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUSLY...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF OF THE DELAWARE COAST AS OF 4 AM. A
PRETTY EXPANSIVE SNOW SHIELD IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS CONNECTICUT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
AND LIKELY ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE IF NOT AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD.
OVERALL...WE HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS. ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EASTWARD A BIT...AND
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SLIGHT CHANGE. ONE THING IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN...AND THAT IS THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. ONE TOWN MAY
HAVE 5 OR 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER TOWN 10 MILES TO THE WEST
MAY END UP WITH NEXT TO NOTHING. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS BY INCORPORATING THE LATEST HRRR POPS FOR THE
FIRST 12-15 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS BACK EDGE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. TODAY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE A CASE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT OUR MOUNTAINS ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY OR
MOSTLY DRY.
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEASTERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE SNOW-FREE AFTER 00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB +PNA PATTERN WILL DISAPPEAR AS
THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND BOTH UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT AND
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER ERN NO AMERICA AND ALLOW COLD CORE OF
AIR TO DROP EQUATORWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF WEEK. SO...COLD TO START THE EXTENDED...MAYBE A LITTLE WARM UP
TO AROUND NORMAL LATE WEEK...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN COLDER NEXT
WEEKEND.
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BE COLD WITH ENOUGH WIND SUNDAY EVE TO PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR -20 IN THE N...AND BLO ZERO EVERYWHERE
ELSE...BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL COLD
AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE N...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 10-20 F
RANGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS 500 MB TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINA COAST....DEPENDING ON
WHETHER YOU FOLLOW THE EURO OR GFS. THE EURO IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW AND INTENSIFYING THE
SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ENOUGH TO SPREAD
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE CWA. THE GFS KEEPS THE SFC FLOW
FURTHER E AND INTENSIFIES LATER...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS SNOW AND
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE IN THE ERN ZONES.
GIVEN THE SOLID PERFORMANCE OF THE EURO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION
AND HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA ON TUE. STILL IT LOOKS
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...SO ANY SNOW WILL
HAVE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIO.
SHOULD SEE NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND HIGHS ON WED LIMITED TO THE TEENS TO AROUND
20 AGAIN. AS THAT INTENSE LOW HEADS NE THROUGH THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR THUS...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER
NH/ME...AND A BIT OF WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES AND BRINGS THE COLD BACK BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE BECOMING IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW BY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE. POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW LATE MON INTO TUE EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR BY WED...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST WATERS AS COASTAL STORM
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SCA LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS A GOOD BET SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SCA POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
GALES TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND
E.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
MEZ018>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ008-009-011-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1203 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY TODAY
AND THEN ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UPDATE...CHALLENGING FORECAST AS SNOW IS NOW MOVING INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT IS STARTING TO SHOW
ITSELF, WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
MAINE COAST. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH NORTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY REACHING INTO DOWNEAST MAINE. HAVE
TIGHTENED UP THE POPS A BIT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO MADE TWEAKS
TO TEMPERATURE`S TO MATCH CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THESE WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MARGINAL...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
IMPACT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING STORM TO AFFECT THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AND THERE
APPEARS TO BE A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT W/NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE
GETTING SHUT OUT ON THIS EVENT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRUCIAL NOT ONLY TO QPF AND SNOWFALL BUT ALSO TO THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE.
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP MATCHED UP WELL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS W/TAKING THE SFC LOW FROM THE CAROLINAS
TODAY TO THE NOVA SCOTIA REGION. LATEST PRECIP ANALYSIS AT 06Z
SHOWED THAT TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER THE DELMARVA.
THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLL IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY AS ONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS DECENT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM 1000-700MBS THAT SETS UP ACROSS
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIP/SNOWFALL RATES. BLYR TEMPS WILL
BE CRUCIAL ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY. DECIDED
TO USE CONSENSUS APCH W/THIS EVENT AND BRING A NOSE OF WARMER IN
THE LLVLS OVER THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST. THIS TRANSLATES TO MID
30S AT THE SURFACE ALLOWING SNOW TO GO TO RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN FOR A
PERIOD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO FALL BACK AFTER ABOUT 8 PM WITH PRECIP GOING BACK TO SNOW
W/SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. BACK TO THE W AND N, BLYR TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. ALL WINTER HEADLINES REMAIN IN
PLACE AS IS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY
AS THE HEAVY BOUT OF PRECIP THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION W/THE
COOLING TEMPS COULD ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO CLOSE IN NEAR 7
INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITING AND EASTPORT AREAS.
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN AND END LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL ADD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW W/OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
SHOULD DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH AND MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWN EAST BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL TO ABOUT 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE NORTH AND 10 TO 15 CENTRAL
AND DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD WITH SUB
ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER FOR TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
WARRANTED BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH DOWN EAST AND COASTAL AREAS ONCE AGAIN
APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
ANY SNOW WILL WIND DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS AND VFR FOR BGR AND BHB. THIS WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM KHUL DOWN TO KBHB W/SOME SNOW AND
CONDITIONS GOING TO MVFR AND IFR. LIFR IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
FOR KBGR AND KBHB IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND SOME TURBULENCE.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT BY MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SNOW LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB
TERMINALS. VFR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS/SEAS ARE STARTING TO COME UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
PER 07Z OBS. WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO
HIT 40S OUT OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 7 TO 11 FT BY LATER TONIGHT.
SOME MINOR OVERWASH ALONG HANCOCK COUNTY NEAR SEAWALL ROAD AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY IS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
NEAR SHORE MODEL INDICATED THAT ANY OVERWASH WOULD BE MINOR. THE
DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO SUNDAY WITH
WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
MONDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE GALES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-
029-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ005-006-
030-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1253 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~993 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL
OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GULF
OF MEXICO. LATEST RADAR INDICATES BULK OF WIDESPREAD RAIN NOW
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BAY...WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE FARTHER INLAND. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S (ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC THIS IS ACTUALLY A
SIGNIFICANT DROP FROM READINGS EARLIER THIS MORNING).
LAGGING UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WILL PIVOT EAST ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HRS. THIS ENERGY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO SPARK OFF A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE EARLY THIS
AFTN WRN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND LATER IN THE AFTN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING EAST TO THE COAST. WHILE THE BNDRY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY
WARM WITH MODEL SFC WET BULBS ABOVE FREEZING...THINKING IS THAT WE COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PCPN COULD TURN TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN HIGHER PCPN RATES. THUS HAVE KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW IN BY
THIS AFTN ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION. GENLY EXPECT NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE NRN NECK AND MD ERN SHORE LATE THIS AFTN AS THIS WOULD
TEND TO BE THE AREA WHERE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL COINCIDE WITH
THE MOST LEFTOVER MOISTURE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENLY BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S...BUT MANY AREAS W OF THE BAY WILL SEE READINGS
HOLD IN THE 30S UNTIL AFTER 21Z...WHILE NE AREAS MAY ACTUALLY SEE
TEMPS FALL W/ THE 2ND BAND OF SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST 00Z SUITE OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND
FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
RAPID DRYING OF ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL FORECAST DRY
CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TNGT OTHER
THAN A SML CHC FOR SNOW BRIEFLY IN THE EARLY EVENING ON THE MD ERN
SHR/NRN NECK. LOWS 30-35. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUN WITH HIGHS
RANGING FM THE LWR 50S S...TO THE MID TO UPR 40S N IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS SUN
EVENG/NGT AND SLIDES E THRU SRN VA/NC AND OFFSHR LATE SUN NGT THRU
MON. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS WITH REGARD TO
HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...AND DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTH OF LO
PRES JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST BY 00Z TUE. TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR
SUN NGT AND MON...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS AT LEAST THE
NRN HALF OF THE AREA DURING MON...AND LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW
EVERYWHERE MON NGT. THIS IS BY FAR LOOKING LIKE OUR BEST CHC FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THUS FAR THIS WINTER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. LOWS
SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 30S. HIGHS ON MON RANGING FM THE MID 30S
EXTRM NW/N...TO THE MID TO UPR 40S EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC (WITH
TEMPS LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THRU THE DAY). STAY
TUNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP/ANOMALOUS NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. TO BEGIN
THE EXTENDED...LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES MORNING AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVES DIGS OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE
TN/KY VALLEYS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TUES MORNING. ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. HEIGHT FALLS IN TANDEM
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP THRU MON
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO
PREDOMINATELY SNOW THRU THE NIGHT...REACHING SE VA/NE NC AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR SURE...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES AS
THE SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT EXPECT BRUNT OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE. THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE LATE TUES NIGHT-WEDS
MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM OFFSHORE TUES
NIGHT...BUT INCREASING NWLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION
THURS...AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURS NIGHT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TUES-WEDS IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S. TEMPS REBOUND THURS-FRI INTO THE LOW-MID 40S.
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUES NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN WITH THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST AND OFFSHORE
ERLY THIS AFTRN. UPR LVL SYSTM TO CROSS THE AREA NEXT 2-5 HRS
WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN. CIGS ALRDY IFR BUT VSBYS HAVE
IMPROVED PAST FEW HRS...MAINLY DUE TO THE CAA AND GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. THUS...WENT WITH A 3 HR TEMPO GROUP FOR
-RA & LWR VSBYS AS THE PCPN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN.
APPEARS CAA MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET & MAYBE WET SNOW FLAKES TO
MIX IN AT SBY BEFORE ENDING ARND SUNSET. NW TO W WNDS AVG 10-15
WITH G20 KTS ALONG THE COAST.
TSCTNS SHOW A QUICK DRYING OF THE COLUMN AFTR 00Z RESULTING IN
CRG SKIES THRU THE EVENING. SO XPCT CINDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS COULD AGAIN CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER SE VA/NC
COAST THIS MORNING. STILL NOTING SOME W-SW FLOW JUST E-NE OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES, WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NNW IN THE BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. HRRR AND RAP BOTH CATCHING ON TO THE
EXPECTED LULL IN SCA WINDS AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW
LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO ENSUE AS THE
LOW LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE WATERS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTN AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA. SWAN AND
WAVEWATCH SEEM TO MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH SEAS IN
THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS BECOME MORE WLY SAT AFTERNOON AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
AND CAA SURGE WANES. SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND RUN
THRU THE DAY SAT...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE
FAR LOWER CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT. SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT
(UP TO 7 FT IN THE NRN WATERS) THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING THRU THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY, WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAINING SUB-SCA
SUN/SUN NGT. THAT SUB-SCA CONDITION WILL BE SHORT LIVED,
HOWEVER...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA
WATERS MON...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY MONDAY MORNING, WITH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MON AFTERNOON/TUESDAY. LOW END GALES WILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 8-12FT
JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY NGT/TUESDAY. STRONG NWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE WATERS REMAIN
BTWN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE OH VALLEY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
631-633-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAM/SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
331 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
STRONG SHORTWAVE BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN TO START
THE WORK WEEK...REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES.
STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIVING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS 150KT 300MB JET
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE. BOTH FEATURES WILL MOVE TOWARD OUR AREA
LATER THIS EVENING AND PROGRESS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE ALREADY OCCURRING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA CAUSED BY WEAK
VORTICITY LOBE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...WITH WING OF WARM ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE. COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THIS
EVENING WITH WESTERN NEBRASKA ACTIVITY...BUT MAIN PRECIP CHANCE
WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING WITH NORTHERN PLAINS ACTIVITY. EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE MARKEDLY BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA...WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR NORTH
WHERE LIFT ASSOCIATED BY MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARM SURFACE LAYER WILL KEEP PRECIP
LIQUID PAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION KICKS
IN...CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BUT STILL
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARM
TO OFFER DOUBT WHETHER PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW EXCEPT FOR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. WHERE SNOW DOES
FALL...QPF LOOKS TO REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH MELTING
OCCURRING AS WELL. THUS AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ARE
FORECAST NORTH AND EAST OF THE OMAHA METRO AREA...WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION SOUTH AND WEST.
WINDS WILL ALSO KICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT 850 JET...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PROMOTING
MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGEST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND MID SUNDAY MORNING. WILL ISSUE WIND
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA TO COVER THIS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING BY NOON SUNDAY...BUT STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY. THUS TEMPERATURES WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN STEADY OF FALL MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
30S ARE EXPECTED.
COOLDOWN BEHIND SYSTEM WILL BE BRIEF AS WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS MAY RISE OVERNIGHT AFTER AN EVENING
LOW...THEN A WIND SHIFT BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OCCUR EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PROMOTE DECENT MIXING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 850
TEMPERATURES IN THE 8-10C RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD REACH
60 IN OUR SOUTHWEST WITH PLENTY OF 50S ELSEWHERE.
A QUICK SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST...BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS NORMALLY NOT A WARM WIND FOR US...SO TEMPS WILL
BE A GOOD 5 OR 10 DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE A SIMILAR-
TO-MONDAY LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE. STILL SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN
THE 50S MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
ANOTHER WARM DAY WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND LIKELY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME BRIEFLY ZONAL IN THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER MILD DAY
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PUMPING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 50S. SIGNIFICANT COOLING
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS WAVE WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME 20C
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE...BUT TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING TOO FAR...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO TOP 40. A LITTLE
WARMER FRIDAY AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN BRIEFLY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER GREATLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FORECAST.
GFS BRINGS A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING PATTERN TO THE PLAINS WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE. ECMWF KEEPS PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTH
OF OUR AREA AND SLAMS THE PLAINS WITH MINUS 20C 850 AIR. FOR NOW OUR
FORECAST WILL BLEND THESE TWO SCENARIOS WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS IS STILL ON TRACK
TO MAKE A QUICK SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY...GUSTING 30KT TO 35KT AFTER
08Z. PERIODS OF -SHRA WILL BEGIN AT KOFK BY 05Z SPREADING INTO
KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. MVFR
CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN 05Z AND
11Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043-050-065.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1259 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA CONTINUES TO NOSE COLD
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM LIGNITE TO WASHBURN TO LINTON MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...THEN ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WESTHOPE AND MINOT ARE ALREADY REPORTING LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION.
ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER WAVE ARE
SLOWLY ROTATING SOUTH OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS FROM THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE MINIMAL...EVEN THOUGH WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE FREEZING RAIN MENTION AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. FURTHERMORE...THE
DEEPER LAYER OF COLDER AIR NOSING SOUTH OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIP TYPES IN THE RAIN/SNOW REALM
DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE OF THE ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM THE SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER FALLS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1032 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SO FAR AIR TEMPERATURES UNDER THE PRECIPITATION CANOPY
HAVE BEEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH A LIQUID RAIN BEING
REPORTED. HOWEVER...ROAD SURFACES ARE AT THE FREEZING MARK IN SOME
SPOTS LEADING TO THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN.
ADJUSTED THE SPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POSSIBILITY. ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
OBS/TRENDS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF RAIN MOVES EAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ALL SNOW AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE CLIPPER CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD SO ONLY ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE
WORDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
GIVEN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
OVERNIGHT...ROAD TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THE MORNING...DESPITE RISING SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THUS...EXPANDED THE FREEZING RAIN MENTION TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...DID EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY GIVEN THE 09
THROUGH 11 UTC RAP SOUNDING ITERATIONS AT BAKER AND DICKINSON AND
THE 06 UTC GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. ALL DEPICT 45-55 KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER WITH NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH 800 MB.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING.
FINALLY...THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS...03 UTC SREF AND 00 UTC ECMWF ALL
SUGGEST HIGHS REMAINING ONLY IN THE 30S TODAY. THIS EQUATES TO A
BIT MORE SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN THIS AFTERNOON AREA WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
WEST...RAIN AND SNOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WEST AND CENTRAL...AND
GUSTY WINDS SOUTHWEST TODAY.
CURRENTLY...POTENT LEAD S/WV IMPULSE MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA AND WILL ENTER INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA 10-12Z. WE REMAIN
CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN DESPITE
AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S OVER WESTERN OBSERVATION SITES.
ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES ARE SUB-FREEZING SO ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL
LIKELY FREEZE CREATING ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS UNTIL SOLAR RADIATION
WARMS THE ROAD SURFACES QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. WE WILL FOR NOW
HIGHLIGHT THIS IMPACT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
NEXT EMBEDDED IMPULSE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
THIS MORNING WITH SUPPORT ALOFT FROM UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALONG TO EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL
ERODE AS THE DAY GOES ON SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE FREEZING RAIN
PROBLEMS AFTER SUNSET WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
MAINLY SNOW THIS EVENING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT
COOL...A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A MIX WILL BE
NORTH WHERE COOLING ALOFT OCCURS EARLIER...AND THE MOST FAVORABLE
AREA FOR ALL RAIN WILL BE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE FORECAST. AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AND INTO
THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA WITH SNOW CHANCES DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
BESIDES PRECIPITATION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY SOUTHWEST. BUFKIT INDICATES
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THESE STRONG WINDS TOUCHING MY FAR SOUTHWEST. 12Z GFS
STRONGER WITH THE WINDS AND NAM WEAKER SO SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR BOWMAN AND ADAMS COUNTY FOR NOW
AS THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PEAK
WINDS IN MY AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH A POTENTIAL TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REMAINING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. THE 00 UTC
NAEFS DEPICTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 90-97TH PERCENTILES
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED...WITH
PERHAPS LOWERS 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO RECORD
HIGHS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO A DEEPENING CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND AND THE TRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL LINGER OVER KMOT-KBIS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER KMOT-KBIS-KJMS. PRECIPITATION WILL END
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1032 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SO FAR AIR TEMPERATURES UNDER THE PRECIPITATION CANOPY
HAVE BEEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH A LIQUID RAIN BEING
REPORTED. HOWEVER...ROAD SURFACES ARE AT THE FREEZING MARK IN SOME
SPOTS LEADING TO THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN.
ADJUSTED THE SPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POSSIBILITY. ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
OBS/TRENDS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF RAIN MOVES EAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ALL SNOW AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE CLIPPER CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD SO ONLY ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE
WORDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
GIVEN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
OVERNIGHT...ROAD TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THE MORNING...DESPITE RISING SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THUS...EXPANDED THE FREEZING RAIN MENTION TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...DID EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY GIVEN THE 09
THROUGH 11 UTC RAP SOUNDING ITERATIONS AT BAKER AND DICKINSON AND
THE 06 UTC GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. ALL DEPICT 45-55 KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER WITH NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH 800 MB.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING.
FINALLY...THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS...03 UTC SREF AND 00 UTC ECMWF ALL
SUGGEST HIGHS REMAINING ONLY IN THE 30S TODAY. THIS EQUATES TO A
BIT MORE SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN THIS AFTERNOON AREA WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
WEST...RAIN AND SNOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WEST AND CENTRAL...AND
GUSTY WINDS SOUTHWEST TODAY.
CURRENTLY...POTENT LEAD S/WV IMPULSE MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA AND WILL ENTER INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA 10-12Z. WE REMAIN
CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN DESPITE
AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S OVER WESTERN OBSERVATION SITES.
ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES ARE SUB-FREEZING SO ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL
LIKELY FREEZE CREATING ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS UNTIL SOLAR RADIATION
WARMS THE ROAD SURFACES QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. WE WILL FOR NOW
HIGHLIGHT THIS IMPACT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
NEXT EMBEDDED IMPULSE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
THIS MORNING WITH SUPPORT ALOFT FROM UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALONG TO EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL
ERODE AS THE DAY GOES ON SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE FREEZING RAIN
PROBLEMS AFTER SUNSET WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
MAINLY SNOW THIS EVENING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT
COOL...A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A MIX WILL BE
NORTH WHERE COOLING ALOFT OCCURS EARLIER...AND THE MOST FAVORABLE
AREA FOR ALL RAIN WILL BE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE FORECAST. AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AND INTO
THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA WITH SNOW CHANCES DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
BESIDES PRECIPITATION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY SOUTHWEST. BUFKIT INDICATES
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THESE STRONG WINDS TOUCHING MY FAR SOUTHWEST. 12Z GFS
STRONGER WITH THE WINDS AND NAM WEAKER SO SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR BOWMAN AND ADAMS COUNTY FOR NOW
AS THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PEAK
WINDS IN MY AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH A POTENTIAL TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REMAINING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. THE 00 UTC
NAEFS DEPICTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 90-97TH PERCENTILES
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED...WITH
PERHAPS LOWERS 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO RECORD
HIGHS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO A DEEPENING CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND AND THE TRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BEGIN AS A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX IN THE
FAR WEST BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. RAIN WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A
-RASN MIX THEN ALL SNOW FROM 00-06Z SUNDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING
KDIK TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
540 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE
SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...
MANY OBS OF FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER NW PA AND WRN
NY AS MOISTURE IS CARRIED IN WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PATCH OF FZDZ SHOULD NOT LAST
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS JUDGING BY RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH HAVE
THE COLUMN COOLING ENOUGH AT BFD TO MAKE SURE IT IS ALL SNOW. WILL
RUN A FZRA ADVY THRU 06Z TO COVER THIS HAZARD.
PREV...
A PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
WINTRY PATTERN OVER CENTRAL PA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AS OUR EARLY WEEKEND STORM CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFFSHORE...A WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ACCUMS INTO THE WEST TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE 5H SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED THIS THIS UPPER TROF
WILL BE ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE DEL MARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER
TROF DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT`S THE LAURELS MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED
IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.
DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.
ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.
STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
TIGHT TEMP GRAIDENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.
WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10-15
MPH IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS OVER THE SW HALF OF CWA...SO ADDED MENTION
OF LLWS THERE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ALSO SPAWN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT IN SAME
AREA. COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ENCROACHMENT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS OF
MVFR CIGS...WHILE SOUTHEAST REMAINS VFR.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.
MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.
TUE...SOME SNOW LIKELY TO LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST AND EAST.
WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
THU...MORE SNOW EXPECTED WITH NEXT FRONT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/RXR
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SOUTHWARD
MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT REACHING THE U.P. BORDER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS FRONT IS A VERY COLD/DRY AIRMASS AS EVIDENT
BY TEMPS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO OVER ONTARIO.
THE FRONT IS MAINLY INACTIVE AT THE MOMENT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IS CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXPECTATION IS THAT THESE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A DECENT SWATH OF
SNOW OCCURRING OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ALONG THE
FRONT AND FROM THE CLIPPER ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING WHILE A CLIPPER TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PERHAPS
COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ALONG THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT ANTICIPATING BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW TO
OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE FOX
VALLEY BY MID-EVENING. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING DECENT MID-LEVEL FGEN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE
FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. AS A RESULT...KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THERE. STILL ANTICIPATING A GLANCING BLOW FROM
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST RUNS OF
MESOMODELS SUGGEST THE SNOW WILL MISS THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY.
AREAS FROM WISC RAPIDS TO WAUTOMA COULD SEE UP TO A HALF INCH...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS FARTHER NORTH. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH.
SUNDAY...A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW WILL LINGER FROM WAUTOMA TO
MANITOWOC EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD BE DEPARTING
QUICKLY AS THE CLIPPER MOVES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING A VERY DRY AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE (DEWPOINTS OVER ONTARIO ARE BELOW 0F). EVEN
THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE UNSTABLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
MICHIGAN...EXPECT THIS DRY AIR TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER AS LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS BECOME RETREAT CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES. THINK ITS
POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AN INCH OR LESS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES.
A BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ONE MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PHASE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A FEW INCHES DESPITE
MEAGER MOISTURE. VERY COLD AIR LOOKS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBZERO
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS OF 30 BELOW POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IF GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS ARE CORRECT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXCEPT FOR THOSE
PATCHY IFR CIGS THAT SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND CIGS WILL RETURN TO MVFR
AFTER IT PASSES. THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A STEADY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF
CENTRAL WI AND THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY TONIGHT. SOME IFR VSBYS ARE
ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MFI-OSH. ANY SNOW WILL LIKELY PULL
OUT BY AROUND 12Z. DRY ARCTIC AIR COULD LEAD TO SCATTERING OF THE
MVFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS
RATHER HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.
GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
MPC.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1228 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON PER HRRR MODEL
FIELDS. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE FAR WEST...BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF THIS WILL OCCUR. HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED A BIT IN MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAISED IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME SUNSHINE BROUGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
40S.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUD DECK MOVES INTO THE AREA. THESE CEILINGS
WILL LINGER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BECOMING MVFR LATER IN THE DAY.
WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.
LIGHT SNOW WITH 1 MILE VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD INTO MADISON BY
08Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 09Z SUNDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING...ENDING AROUND 18Z TO 19Z SUNDAY.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED. TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...WITH
HIGH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
EXPECTED WINDS AND WAVES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
EXPECT STRATUS TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. DO EXPECT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY MILD TEMPS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 40F.
A NLY 140 JET STREAM WILL DIVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TNT...DIGGING AND
AMPLIFYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE AT THE IA AND MO BORDER
BY 12Z SUN. THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK
PLACING THE BEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS JUST SOUTH
OF WI. DESPITE THE MODEL MASS FIELDS AGREEING FAIRLY WELL...THERE
ARE SOME QPF DIFFERENCES. TOOK A BLEND OF WPC AND CONSALL QPF WHICH
THEN YIELDS AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR THE IL BORDER TO LESS THAN AN INCH
TOWARD CENTRAL WI FOR LATE TNT AND SUN AM.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS ALL SHOW SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL IL WILL BE DIVING SEWD
RATHER RAPIDLY WITH NRN FRINGE OF PRECIP SHIELD AFFECTING SRN WI
IN THE MORNING WITH A QUICK EXIT LIKELY AS DRIER AIR WRAPS IN PER
700 RH PROGS. 500 MILLIBAR PROGS SHOW THE UPPER SUPPORT QUICKLY
FADING AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER DROPS SEWD RAPIDLY WITH THE STGR
JET ACTION WELL SOUTH OF WI. 850 TEMPS DROP TO -10C THOUGH DRY
AIR ADVECTION IS PRONOUNCED WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND SOUNDINGS
DO NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR MEASURABLE LAKE EFFECT WITH THE LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE. SWATH OF 850
MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. QPF VARIES BUT WENT WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW. GFS/NAM SUGGEST KEEPING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP LARGELY NORTH OF CWA THROUGH 18Z WITH BETTER SATURATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE STATE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEAKER FORCING SIGNAL ALOFT WITH
ELONGATED...MOSTLY SHEARED VORTICITY. PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROUGH
AND SHEAR AXIS KEEPS POPS GOING INTO MONDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH WORKS IN...SO QUIET
PERIOD EXPECTED. NEXT LOW DRAWS CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH 850 TEMPS RISING WELL ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE. THE GFS SHOWS THE THERMAL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TO THE
SURFACE LOW. AS TIME DRAWS CLOSER MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WARMER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH
PRIMARY LOW TRACKING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF MKE/MSN EARLY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A SLOWER AND STRONGER SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH WITH AN IMPLIED LONGER DURATION EVENT THAT WOULD LAST INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM IS ALSO SHOWING A STRONGER LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE THE STATE WITH TIMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. STILL SHOWING SOME WARMER THICKNESSES/850
TEMPS LIKE THE ECMWF SO HAVE THE MIXED PRECIP TYPE IN GRIDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS MUCH LESS OF A MIXED PRECIP SIGNAL THAN THE
ECMWF AND GEM. BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALL
MODELS SUGGEST COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN AS LOW PULLS EAST.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC LOOK WITH
SURFACE RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED
LOW FROM THURSDAY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...BROKEN STRATUS FROM 2.5-3.5 KFT CONTINUES OVER
SRN WI BUT STRATUS CLEARS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE 925-850 MB
TEMPS ARE WARMER WITH LESS MOISTURE. THE WLY FLOW WILL BRING THE
MILDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AM
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT STRATUS TO BECOME FEW-SCT. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH SRN
MN...IA...AND CENTRAL IL FOR LATE TNT THROUGH SUN AM. THIS WILL
BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE TNT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS...THEN CIGS WILL FALL
BELOW 1 KFT WITH VSBYS RANGING FROM 1-3 MILES WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW.
MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 09Z SUN AND END SUNDAY
EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM IA INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
LATE SAT NT AND SUN...BRISK NELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH HIGH
WAVES. THE WINDS AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE MI.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR