Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/21/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

845 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.

.DISCUSSION...PACIFIC IMPULSE PUSHING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA THIS EVENING. INITIAL MOISTURE INCREASE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS FAR AS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IS CONCERNED
WE`RE STILL FOCUSING ON BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF TUCSON
NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR FIRST 48 HOUR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BLENDING IN SOME EARLY 00Z MODEL DATA
INCLUDING HRRR AND NAMDNG5. PRIMARILY THIS BUMPED POPS UP ON OUR
BORDER WITH NEW MEXICO WITH THE SECOND IMPULSE FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/06Z.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THIS
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NE OF
KSAD AFTER 21/20Z WITH MTNS OBSCD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS THROUGH 21/17Z. THEREAFTER...INCREASING SW WIND 10 TO 15
KTS...BECOMING WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH AND
EAST OF KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST
OF TUCSON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND.
THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS WEEKEND. SOME BREEZY
WINDS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON WEDNESDAY...THEN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INCREASED EAST WINDS MAY LINGER INTO THIS
WEEKEND WITH A PERSISTENT EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN PLACE.

.PREV DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST MODELS TRACK THIS FEATURE INTO ARIZONA
TOMORROW WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SYSTEM WAS PROGGED
TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP INCREASE THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA STATE
LINE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL ALSO USHER
IN MUCH COLDER AIR ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO
BE ABOUT 8 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN COMPARED TO FORECAST READINGS
FOR TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...MODELS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH THE STORM TRACK REMAINING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT
AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND TRACKING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA

515 PM PST TUE JAN 20 2015

.UPDATE...AIR QUALITY ISSUES UPDATED.

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF COOL WEATHER UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH NIGHT AND MORNING FOG. CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE THE VALLEY WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

.DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS WERE PRESENT OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVED SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY REMAINS IN A THICK LAYER OF
STRATUS...APPROXIMATELY 1500 FEET DEEP ACCORDING TO THE VISALIA
PROFILER. ADDITIONALLY...PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS REPORTED THROUGH PARTS
OF THE VALLEY. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEY REPORTED
DRIZZLE...WITH TULARE...HURON...AND KETTLEMAN HILL ACTUALLY
MEASURING 0.01" OF PRECIPITATION. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER
THE VALLEY...THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CHANGE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO NOTHING TO
THE VALLEY STRATUS. THE HIGH RES ARW...HIGH RES NMM...AND HRRR ALL
INDICATE PATCHY DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH
THE ARW AND NMM SHOWING DRIZZLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH STRATUS FIRMLY IN PLACE...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A
NEARLY COOKIE CUTTER FROM DAY TO DAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE A DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...POSSIBLY ERODING THE STRATUS LAYER. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AND THE LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AND HOPEFULLY GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THE
SITUATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT OVER
CALIFORNIA WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC
RESULTING IN A REX BLOCK. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST. THERE ARE HUGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND THE MODEL TRENDS
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN
MOVING NORTH INTO KERN COUNTY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONTINUING NORTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
FRAME...AS NCEPS RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICIBILITY IS INDICATING
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR THE UPPER PATTERN. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

.AVIATION...
IFR VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOCAL LIFR/VLIFR VISIBILITIES IN DRIZZLE AND FOG
UNTIL 20Z WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-20 72:1994 36:1937 55:1901 24:1963
KFAT 01-21 72:1994 39:1937 56:1896 19:1937
KFAT 01-22 70:1994 35:1962 52:1888 25:1945

KBFL 01-20 77:1912 40:1940 56:1969 21:1922
KBFL 01-21 79:1981 40:1937 60:1942 19:1937
KBFL 01-22 76:1981 38:1962 60:1981 19:1937
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

645 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MAINE WILL BUFFET THE AREA WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY.
A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT SPAWN A FEW MORE
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE FROM HUDSON BAY WILL BUILD DOWN
INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES BUT
DRY WEATHER. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MIGHT BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NUISANCE
SNOW TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...ESPECIALLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

AS OF 645 AM EST...THE SURFACE STORM WAS OVER MAINE THE AND MID
LEVEL UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST. THERE LOOKS TO BE ONE BOUNDARY
TO WORK OVER REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.

RADARS ARE PICKING UP LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THESE WILL BE AROUND AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY
AS WE REMAIN UNDERNEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE SECONDARY
BOUNDARY APPROACHING.

EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE FREEZING IN PLACES...THERE HAVE
BEEN REPORTS OF BLACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...THANKS TO A COLD
GROUND. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN. MOST AREAS OF BLACK ICE WILL LIKELY MELT OR SUBLIMATE LATER
THIS MORNING.

UPSLOPE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF MAINLY THE SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT TO A LESSER
DEGREE...ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...BERKSHIRES AND PERHAPS EVEN THE
NORTHERN CATSKILLS. SNOWFALL WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD LOCALLY
PRODUCE 1-3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
GREENS...CLOSER TO AN INCH OTHER UPSLOPE AREAS. VALLEY AREAS WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING
A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING AND ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNNY BREAKS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR...EVIDENT NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER
WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS OUR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
COULD PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT IT LOOKS DIFFUSE ENOUGH
AND LACKING ANY GOOD VERTICAL STABILITY TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWER CONVECTION (OR ANY SNOW SQUALLS). THE HRRR DOES NOT INDICATE
ANY ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM SO IT WILL LIKELY JUST BRING A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PATCHY CLOUDS AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS
PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THIS FEATURE THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY DROP
ONCE AGAIN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BE
MORE ANTICYCLONIC (AS OPPOSED TO CYCLONIC) AND COLUMN LOOKS VERY
DRY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF ONTARIO WOULD
FRAGMENTED AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. AS THE HIGH BUILD INTO OUR REGION...THE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LOWER...AND BY LATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT MOST OF IF NOT ALL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CEASE.
THIS WILL LEAVE US WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. A RESIDUAL
BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT LOWS WILL
NEVERTHELESS BE AROUND 20 NEAR POUGHKEEPSIE...TEENS MOST AREAS NEAR
AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK
WITH A FEW PLACES HOVERING AROUND ZERO.

TUESDAY WILL BE A MAINLY SUNNY BRISK COLD DAY AS A SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR MASS IS FULLY ENTRENCHED INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE ALL THAT MUCH...TOPPING OUT
AROUND 30 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...MID TO
UPPER 20S FURTHER NORTH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION (INCLUDING
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS)...TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
BE THE REALLY COLD NIGHT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 10 MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...SINGLE NUMBERS CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING
AREAS...ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST...A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. EARLIER GUIDANCE SUPPRESSED
THIS SYSTEM MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF TRENDED
FURTHER NORTH WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEPT ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED IT SOUTH.
THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS IN THE MIDDLE.

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE ACTUAL LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT SOME MODELS DO...IS TAKE A PIECE OF
NORTHERN ENERGY...ENOUGH OF AN EASTERLY FLOW...WHICH INTERACTS WITH
THE LOW TO THE SOUTH TO PRODUCE A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...INTO MUCH OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...WE
BROUGHT LOW CHANCES TO THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT CHANCES FURTHER
NORTH. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM WERE TO DIRECTLY HIT US...WE ARE LOOKING
AT NO MORE THAN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE CONTINUED AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD AND FAIRLY WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE. HOWEVER...TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE SOME SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY/MOISTURE BECOMES INFUSED WITH SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ONE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE REGION WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THU MORNING...AND THE DAY
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO 10 TO 15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 5 AND
15 ABOVE.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND.
IT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN POPS OF 20
TO 45 PERCENT ARE FORECAST. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...THERE WILL BE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT...SO
TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FINALLY CONDITIONS HAVE MARKEDLY IMPROVED AT ALL THE TAF SITES. AT
OF 645 AM EST...ONLY KPSF REPORTED MVFR (LOW MVFR CIGS). THESE CIGS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY AT THAT TAF SITE THANKS TO
UPSLOPE SHOWERS (VCSH).

OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FROM HERE ON
IN...ALTHOUGH WE DO HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CIGS AT KGFL AND KALB
THROUGH MIDDAY.

A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ENSUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AVERAGING 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS REACHING 20 OR A LITTLE HIGHER AT BOTH KPSF AND KALB
THROUGH 22Z-24Z.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL ABATE AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF OVER AN INCH FELL ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS (EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY) ON SUNDAY. THIS RESULTED IN ONE POINT ON THE THE
STILL RIVER (BROOKFIELD) GOING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE (JUST MINOR
FLOODING). MANY OTHER SPOTS IN THE HOUSATONIC REACHED ACTION STAGE.

THE RAIN IS OVER AND ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF WILL END LATER TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY DIP TO OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT TURNS A LOT
COLDER WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN THE RIVERS MAKE MORE ICE.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM...INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM...MIGHT PRODUCE A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MORE RAIN STORMS ARE SEEN ANYTIME SOON. IT LOOKS TO STAY QUITE
COLD THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

420 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EST...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD JUST CROSSED THROUGH
MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IN IT WAKE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE HAS
KICKED IN. INITIALLY THE AIR IS NOT THAT COLD. IN FACT...THE
TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY ROSE TO 37 DEGREES. UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY COLDER BUT NOT THAT MUCH.

EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
AREAS OF BLACK TO FORM ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...THANKS TO A COLD
GROUND. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN. MOST AREAS OF BLACK ICE WILL LIKELY MELT OR SUBLIMATE
LATER THIS MORNING.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE...ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...BERKSHIRES AND PERHAPS EVEN THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS.
SNOWFALL WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE 1-3 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE GREENS...CLOSER TO AN
INCH OTHER UPSLOPE AREAS. VALLEY AREAS WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING
AND ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNNY BREAKS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR...EVIDENT NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER
WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS OUR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
COULD PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT IT LOOKS DIFFUSE ENOUGH
AND LACKING ANY GOOD VERTICAL STABILITY TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWER CONVECTION (OR ANY SNOW SQUALLS). THE HRRR DOES NOT INDICATE
ANY ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM SO IT WILL LIKELY JUST BRING A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PATCHY CLOUDS AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS
PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS.

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NE THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION. CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU HAVE BECOME VFR...WHILE VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS PERSIST AT
KGFL...AND IFR CIGS AT KPSF. WILL FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU FOR THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY WITH MAINLY OVC
CIGS AT AROUND 4500-5000 FEET...WITH ONLY A TEMP GROUP FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z THIS MORNING. AT KGFL...THE VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AROUND 08Z...THEN IMPROVING TO
MAINLY MVFR BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z...THEN VFR AFTER 10Z. OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AND POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST AT KPSF
THROUGH AROUND 09Z...THEN MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS THROUGH 15Z...THEN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 15-18 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT KALB/KPSF. DURING MONDAY MORNING THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO
14 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 24 KTS. DURING MONDAY EVENING WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KTS AT KGFL/KPOU...BUT CONTINUE GUSTING TO
AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

THE RAIN IS OVER AND ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF WILL END LATER TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY DIP TO OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT TURNS A LOT
COLDER WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN THE RIVERS MAKE MORE ICE.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM...INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM...MIGHT PRODUCE A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MORE RAIN STORMS ARE SEEN ANYTIME SOON. IT LOOKS TO STAY QUITE
COLD THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS POCATELLO ID

249 AM MST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR MAIN STORM FROM
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM EASTERN IDAHO. IN ITS WAKE
THIS MORNING...WE SOME LINGERING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WE`VE ALSO
SEEN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND NORTHEAST TOWARD ISLAND PARK. WE SHOULD SEE THIS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...BUT THINNING OUT A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON OR THAT IS AT LEAST OUR CURRENT THOUGHTS. IF IT`S
ANYTHING LIKE OUR LAST BOUT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THIS ELEMENT
WILL REQUIRE MORE FREQUENT UPDATES AND FINESSING. WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THERE COULD
BE A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR MANY AREAS WE MAY HAVE ALREADY SEEN OUR HIGHS
TODAY. IN OTHERS WE WILL SEE A SMALL FLUCTUATION BETWEEN WHERE
WE BOTTOM OUT THIS MORNING AND WHAT HAPPENS THIS AFTERNOON.

WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE DRIER CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL KEEP
SHOWERS GOING MAINLY ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WITH A WEAKENING TREND DURING THE DAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE
MORE CLOUDS INCLUDING STRATUS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. WE DIDN`T GO
GUNG HO FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH THOSE WEAK
DISTURBANCES WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...AS WE COULD SEE THINGS NOT
MATERIALIZE. WE DID INCLUDE PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN SIMILAR AREAS.
IT LOOKS LIKE THAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...INVERSIONS DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP TRAP MOISTURE IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WE GRADUALLY INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF STRATUS FOR THE
SNAKE PLAIN...BEAR LAKE...THE CACHE VALLEY AND ALSO ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 75 CORRIDOR FROM CHALLIS TO STANLEY. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT
SOME FREEZING FOG IN THOSE AREAS...BUT FOR NOW WE DIDN`T GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY. WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST AS WE GET A BETTER IDEA ON WHERE IT FORMS. KEYES

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A RIDGE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY
WHICH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS INLAND TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. ALL THE WHILE OCCASIONAL WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCES TOP
THE RIDGE AND DIVE SE THROUGH MONTANA PROVIDING THE MONTANA AND
WYOMING DIVIDE REGIONS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOWFALL. VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE INVERSIONS WHICH HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW
MEX STATISTICAL VALUES AND CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HUSTON

.AVIATION...ARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS HIGHLIGHTING A
FAIRLY STIFF WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH TWO EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES...ONE APPROACHING THE SEATTLE COAST AND THE OTHER OFF
THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL ADVECT EAST THROUGH
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY PROVIDING SOME MODEST
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN MOUNTAINS WHILE
THE TERMINALS REMAIN LARGELY UNSCATHED. THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF A NARROW BAND OF LIFR STRATUS
CURRENTLY SLICING EAST THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN INTO KIDA AND
EXPANDING NE ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER HIGHLANDS (ISLAND PARK
REGION). THE ONLY MODEL THAT APPEARED TO CAPTURE THIS ELEMENT WAS
THE HRRR WHICH SHOWED DISSIPATING CONDITIONS WEST OF KIDA LATE THIS
MORNING WHILE LIFR/IFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND PARK REGION.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWED A RETURN OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS AT KPIH
AND KIDA OVERNIGHT WHILE KSUN AND KBYI REMAINED VFR. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY. HUSTON

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

548 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...
333 AM CST

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG/POSSIBLY FREEZING...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS TRENDS
TODAY...AND THEN POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS SURFACE TROUGH AND BOUNDARY REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTH.
STRATUS WHICH APPEARED TO BE MORE PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA HAS SINCE SHIFTED TO THE EAST WITH ONLY FEW/SCT HIGH
CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THESE CLEARER
SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE...PATCHY FOG
HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AND HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH
REGARD TO PREVAILING VISIBILITY...THIS FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE
VISIBILITY BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. THIS LOWER VIS AND THE
RAPID CHANGES LIKELY BEING OBSERVED HAVE INITIALLY BEEN THE MAIN
CONCERN AS THE WARMER TEMPS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE ALLOWED
SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. NONETHELESS...AIR TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING HAVE PROVIDED
SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING FOG AND POSSIBLE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS...AND
SO HAVE MADE MENTION IN A NOW. THESE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS WITH THE
PATCHY AND HIGHLY VARYING FOG WILL LIKELY HELP TO LIMIT OVERALL
SLICK CONDITIONS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS/OBSERVATIONS
BEFORE THIS FOG DISSIPATES CLOSER TO MID MORNING.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WITH ANOTHER MILD DAY
EXPECTED...AS HIGHS REACH AROUND 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOW TO
MID 40S LIKELY MORE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. APPROACHING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE CWA BUT DO ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE MORE TOWARDS MID DAY
AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL THEN BECOME PARTLY SUNNY TO CLOUDY
INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...AS THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
REFLECTION DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ANY DEVELOPING PRECIP
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LAKE. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
SMALLER AREA OF PRECIP TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH IOWA AND THEN INTO
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. WITH THIS APPEARING TO BE
A LIKELY SCENARIO DID MAKE MENTION OF SCATTERED SPRINKLES...WITH
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF LIQUID AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY
NOT BE ANYTHING LONG LASTING AS THIS PRECIP SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN CWA AND WITH SURFACE TEMPS STILL LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THIS TIME...AM NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY ICING AT THIS TIME.

RODRIGUEZ

.LONG TERM...
333 AM CST

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHORT WAVE AMPLITUDE IMPULSES TO PASS
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE WILL GRADUALLY DRAG
LOW-LEVEL COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH THOUGH NOTHING TOO ROBUST
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY PRECIP CHANCES
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE PROFILES VERY MARGINAL FOR ANY SNOW IF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CAN MATERIALIZE. HIGHS LOOK TO PEAK INTO THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

THE STRONGEST SIGNAL OF A PV ANOMALY AND HEIGHT FALLS IN MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA SEEING
LIGHT SNOWFALL DURING THAT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING PERIOD...HOWEVER DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND SPECIFIC
TIME OF SNOW IN THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE LIMIT THE ABILITY TO RAISE
POPS TOO MUCH. GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT WEAK PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME INTO
THIS SYSTEM AND THE LIMITED SIGNALS OF MESOSCALE FORCING...ANY
SNOWFALL IS FAVORED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT. DO HAVE MINOR ACCUMS
FORECAST OF MAINLY AT OR UNDER HALF INCH BROAD BRUSHED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LOOK
TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
CANADA BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH RIDGE WEST AND TROUGH EAST. A
SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THAT AMPLIFYING PATTERN
LOOKS TO BRING A PERIOD OF POSSIBLE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES DURING OR AROUND FRIDAY. THE
AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST TO EXPAND INTO THE U.S. AND BRING
COLDER AIR...POSSIBLY MUCH COLDER...INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THOUGH THAT LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN HOW ACTIVE THIS PATTERN
IS OVER THE AREA WITHIN THAT TIME AND HOW SHARP OF COLD AIR PUNCH
OCCURS.

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* VARYING WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
REMAINING UNDER 10 KT.

* LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR ORD.

* MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS...AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OR CALM. EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AS THEY TURN OUT OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION...WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE BEEN MONITORING LAKE EFFECT MVFR CLOUDS DROPPING
SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY AFFECTING FAR
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE POSSIBILITY FOR THESE
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS NEAR THE
LAKE...BUT A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL FOR THIS LOW STRATUS TO
REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH. IF ANY TERMINAL WERE TO SEE A PERIOD OF
LOWER CLOUDS THIS MORNING IT WOULD BE ORD...BUT WOULD EXPECT THIS
PERIOD TO BE BRIEF IF IT WERE TO OCCUR. SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TERMINALS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CEILINGS WITH IT...AS ANY PRECIP STAYS TO THE NORTH. SOME GUIDANCE
HINTING AT SOME RATHER LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT BUT HAVE NOT TRENDED
THAT WAY QUITE YET WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW BECOME POSSIBLE.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.

* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING.

* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
252 AM CST

A COLD FRONT HAD PROGRESSED DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THOUGH EARLY THIS MORNING THIS IS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. LOW PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY TRACK ALONG
THIS OLD BOUNDARY PASSING NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY...THOUGH A SOMEWHAT MINIMAL GRADIENT SHOULD
KEEP WIND GUSTS ONLY AROUND 15 KT. OVERALL THE MIDWEEK PATTERN
FAVORS A LOW IMPACT TIME OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAM BUCKLE. AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS SYSTEM /FRIDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY/...WINDS LOOK TO BE THE STRONGEST WITHIN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...RIGHT NOW APPEARING TO BE AROUND 30 KT.

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
530 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

Aside from a few high/thin cirrus clouds streaming across the area,
skies are mostly clear across central Illinois early this morning.
Due to the clear skies, light winds, and ample surface-based
moisture in place, have been closely monitoring the potential for
fog development. Despite temp/dewpoint spreads that have dropped to
between 0 and 3 degrees, visibilities have thus far remained
unobstructed at all ob sites. HRRR continues to suggest a rapid
decrease in visby over the next couple of hours across mainly the
N/NE KILX CWA: however, its solution has proven wrong throughout the
night up to this point. Am seeing quite a bit of fog developing
further north from northern Illinois into north-central Indiana and
will continue to monitor obs to see if this can develop further
south. At this point, think the HRRR is way overdone and will only
include patchy fog in the forecast this morning. Once any fog
dissipates, mostly sunny skies will prevail through early afternoon
before clouds begin to increase from the northwest ahead of a
weak short-wave trough noted on water vapor imagery over North
Dakota. NAM/GFS/ECMWF all try to spit out some light QPF in
advance of this feature across southern Iowa/northern Missouri
late this afternoon. An examination of time-height cross-sections
reveals some decent mid-level lift, but only limited moisture
above 5000ft. Have opted to include a chance for sprinkles across
the Illinois River Valley late this afternoon accordingly. Will
be another mild day, with highs once again reaching the middle to
upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

The extended forecast continues to feature rather benign weather
conditions for mid and late January, with no major storm systems or
invasions of cold air through early next week. The main challenge
will be timing numerous weak short-waves, as they gradually carve
out a significant trough across the eastern CONUS.

Wave number one will skirt through the southern Great Lakes tonight,
bringing clouds and perhaps a few sprinkles to the northern half of
the CWA this evening. After another mild/dry day on Tuesday, wave
number two is still on target for Tuesday night into Wednesday. As
has been the case with the past several model runs, the 00z Jan 19
suite focuses the best lift/deepest moisture mainly across northern
Illinois. As such, highest PoPs will remain along/north of the I-72
corridor. Surface temps will initially be warm enough for light
rain Tuesday evening, but will cool sufficiently to allow the rain
to mix with or change to snow overnight. QPF is expected to remain
quite light, with only a dusting to maybe a couple tenths of an inch
of snow expected along and north of a Peoria to Bloomington line.

Further out, model solutions begin to diverge, leading to a low
confidence forecast beyond Wednesday. It still appears the dominant
weather feature later this week will be a strong southern stream
wave that will bring heavy rainfall to the Gulf Coast Thursday into
Friday. Further north, a much weaker wave may pass through the
southern Great Lakes on Thursday, so have included slight chance
PoPs across the north accordingly.

After that, big run-to-run swings have been seen with the potential
system late in the weekend. The GFS continues to show a strong
short-wave diving southward into the area, bringing the chance for
accumulating snow Sunday into Sunday night. Meanwhile, the ECMWF
which had previously shown this as well, now brings a much weaker
wave through the area on Saturday and shows dry weather for Sunday.
Due to the large discrepancies, have not made many changes to the
going forecast next weekend. Will therefore continue to feature dry
conditions on Saturday, followed by a chance for snow Sunday/Sunday
night.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

Except for the possibility of morning fog still developing this
morning, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

HRRR continues to aggressively develop dense fog in the very near
term from KPIA-KCMI northward, however surface observations are
showing very little visibility reduction in this region, with some
MVFR developing far to the NE. Although dewpoint depressions are
generally only 1-3 degrees, forecast soundings are showing this
moisture to be quite shallow, which is likely causing moisture to
frost out on the surface rather than creating fog. Unfortunately,
moisture depth looks sufficiently deep that patchy fog still can`t
be ruled out for the next few hours.

Later in the forecast period, a fast moving shortwave trough will
cross central IL late afternoon through evening bringing some
light rain showers mainly north of KSPI-KDEC. Ceilings look to
remain above MVFR thresholds and little visibility reduction
expected with the light precipitation.

Light winds becoming SE 5-8 kts around 16Z, then shifting to W5-8
kts after 5-8Z.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

337 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...
333 AM CST

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG/POSSIBLY FREEZING...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS TRENDS
TODAY...AND THEN POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

.LONG TERM...
333 AM CST

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* VARYING WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
REMAINING UNDER 10 KT.

* MVFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ORD.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS RIDGE AXIS CENTERED
ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE NORTH. NO REAL ISSUES ANTICIPATED WITH APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...ONLY WITH A VARYING WIND DIRECTION BUT
WITH SPEEDS STILL STAYING UNDER 10 KT. SOUTHWARD MOVING VFR
CEILINGS DO APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL MOVE MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME
THIS MORNING AND HAVE EXCLUDED ANY MENTION OF CEILINGS. EXPECT
ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY BUT WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE FALLING TO
MVFR BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. -SHSN OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS PROBABLE. CHANCE OF -SHSN/FLURRIES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR. LIMITED PRECIP THREAT.

IZZI

.MARINE...
252 AM CST

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
314 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

Weak high pressure will be in the vicinity of the central Illinois
terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. This will help keep
winds light/variable for the most part, although there will be a
gradual trend toward southerly winds by late in the period as the
high pressure ridge begins to pull away. Aside from some MVFR fog
that is expected to develop late tonight/Monday morning, VFR
conditions will prevail. Mostly clear skies initially will see an
increase in clouds (still VFR). The clouds are expected to
gradually thicken/lower later Monday afternoon into Monday evening
as an upper level wave approaches the region.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1203 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...
219 PM CST

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MOST PROMINENT FORECAST FEATURES ARE RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE NEAR TERM...AND PESKY SERIES OF PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE
WITH A NEW LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COST TONIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3
OF THE CONUS IS HELPING TO KEEP US RELATIVELY MILD FOR MID-JANUARY
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW AMPLIFIES A BIT MORE AND
ALLOWS SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WITH DISAPPEARING SNOW COVER AND GENERALLY
MILD PACIFIC FLOW...HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR
MONDAY AND ALONG THE LINES OF THE WARMER NUMBERS TUESDAY UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF US TUESDAY EVENING. THIS YIELDS LOWS IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30 AND HIGHS MID 30S TO LOW 40S. EVEN BEHIND THIS
FRONT...AIR IS ONLY A LITTLE COLDER...AND TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE AREA TO START THE DAY IN BETWEEN DEPARTING EASTERN
TROUGH...AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WHICH APPROACHES AND
EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...ALLOWING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH TO
DRIFT INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL...THOUGH BOUNDARY QUICKLY RETREATS BACK
TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. INITIAL SURFACE LOW
RIPPLES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AND
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LARGELY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH DOES
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW-MID LEVEL
SATURATION DEVELOPS WITH THIS FEATURE AS COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIR OOZES
IN...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW WHICH MAY POSSIBLY
BEGIN LATE AFTERNOON AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL. SOME
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS
AN INCH GIVEN LIGHT MODEL QPF. LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS WAVE TRACKS OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS BEGINS A SERIES OF
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVES...WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

RATZER

.LONG TERM...
219 PM CST

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. TIMING BETWEEN MODELS
BEGINS TO DIFFER AT BIT BY THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WHICH DRIFTS EAST TOWARD ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A BIT AGAIN
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE CANADIAN LOW MOVES
THROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER LOW-CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. ECMWF DIGS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...SLOWING PROGRESSION OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AS SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ALONG IT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW.

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* VARYING WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
REMAINING UNDER 10 KT.

* MVFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ORD.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. -SHSN OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS PROBABLE. CHANCE OF -SHSN/FLURRIES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR. LIMITED PRECIP THREAT.

IZZI

.MARINE...
248 PM CST

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK BRINGING SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN WINDS...THAT SAID WINDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
MODEST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED. THE FIRST
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY. WINDS FRESHEN UP ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON
SATURDAY.

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1146 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

A weak ridge of high pressure is in place across central and
southeast Illinois, and it will remain through the night. Overall,
it looks like quiet weather should remain in place through the
night. However, some of the guidance, especially the high
resolution RAP & HRRR, suggest significant fog may develop
overnight.

Skies are and should remain mostly clear, and light winds will
persist as well. These are good radiational cooling conditions and
could be supportive of fog development. The latest surface
observations across the area have fairly small temperature/dew
point spreads, generally not more than a few degrees, also
potentially supportive of fog. However, 00Z sounding at KILX was
pretty dry except for right at the surface. This fact, combined
with the very light winds, may be more supportive of dew and/or
very shallow fog. So, plan to only add patchy fog to the forecast
overnight. Otherwise, only minor forecast tweaks are necessary.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

The 20Z/2 pm surface map shows 995 mb low pressure over far eastern
Ontario with its cold front heading east of lower MI and toward the
Appalachians. 1029 mb high pressure was near the Rio Grande river in
sw Texas. Fairly tight pressure gradient over IL giving breezy west
winds 10-17 mph and gusts of 18-26 mph. Few-scattered stratocumulus
clouds 2-3k ft bases were along and ne of a Lacon to Champaign to
Paris line with broken ceilings ne of Vermilion county in ne IL and
central/ne IN. A band of cirrus clouds was streaming southeast across
sw IL southwest of Springfield and a smaller area of cirrus clouds
spreading quickly se into the Galesburg and Peoria area. Mild temps
were in the 40s with the Mount Carmel airport up to 50F.

Diurnally drive stratocumulus clouds will dissipate around dusk ne
CWA with fair skies tonight with some passing cirrus clouds. A weak
short wave near central IL at sunset will quickly exit IL early this
evening as strong upper trof in eastern states pulls away from IL,
with any additional short waves staying ne and north of central IL
into Monday with dry/fair weather prevailing. Weak surface high
pressure ridge nosing into IL from the sw during tonight will allow
west winds to diminish light early this evening. Dewpoints currently
mostly in the lower 30s, but upstream dewpoints over northern
MO/southern IA drop into the mid to upper 20s. Think guidance may
still be too cold with lows tonight (MET/MAV lows tonight close to
20F at Galesburg) since just a little snow pack left in ne counties.
Have lows 25-30F with Galesburg around 25F and sw counties closer to
30F. Some guidance especially GFS MOS shows patchy fog developing
during overnight until mid morning Monday over ne counties where
some snow melt occurring, but kept it out of forecast with drier air
(dewpoints in mid to upper 20s) advecting in from the west.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

Little change expected into at least the start of next weekend as
a fast west to northwest flow will bring several shortwaves into
the area about every one and a half to two days with only low
chance POPs included with these low amplitude waves.

One such wave is forecast to track quickly into central Illinois
Monday night with the latest ECMWF and GFS models indicating some
light QPF across the area. Forecast soundings not very impressive
with the lower levels still looking quite dry. The thermal profiles
would support rain if precip did occur, but at this point, will keep
POPs below slight chance for now Monday night and see if other models
jump on this weak wave. After that, a more vigorous shortwave is
forecast to track east-southeast into the lower Great Lakes late
Tuesday into Tuesday night with better lift and moisture profiles on
the 12z models. That should bring in some light precip Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning with POPs in the chance category north and
remaining in the slight chance category south ahead of this feature.
Some of the models continue to show a weak shortwave in the southern
stream just ahead of our Tuesday night/Wednesday morning system
which produces some light QPF over southern Missouri and extreme
southern Illinois. Looks as if the bulk of the lift with that feature
will remain just south of our area so will continue to keep POPs out
of southeast Illinois during the day Tuesday. In the wake of the
system on Wednesday morning, models showing somewhat colder air
advecting southeast into the area with 850 temps in the -4 to -6C
range which would still keep our daytime highs close to normal for
this time of year.

Models showing another fast moving wave approaching from the northwest
late Wednesday night into Thursday, with more of a sheared vorticity
pattern featured with this wave, so will only include slight chance
POPs across the northern half of the forecast area Wednesday night
and mainly over the eastern half of our area on Thursday. With most
of the systems pushing through the area during this period, if we
did see any measurable precipitation, it would be quite light,
generally less than a tenth of an inch, and favoring locations
across the north. After the Thursday system shifts off to our east
by afternoon, significant model differences are seen with respect
to the timing and strength of shortwaves approaching the area from
the northwest late in the week, and especially later next weekend.
Model consensus suggests the threat for rain or snow will start to
increase again on Sunday as an upper level wave and attendant
surface wave moves across the area. At this point, will keep the
POPs at low chance for rain or snow during the day and see how
future model runs resolve their differences in the next several
days.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

440 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS NW
FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM LAST NIGH HAS SHIFTED
EAST..WITH UPSTREAM THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OVER ALBERTA CANADA. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

THIS AFTERNOON...LOW TO MID CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYED
PRECIPITATION BAND HAS SHIFTED SOUTH. 950-850 MB THETA E LAPSE
RATES INDICATE SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER THAT HAS LED A FEW POCKETS
OF SPRINKLES DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN WYOMING/NORTHEAST
COLORADO...WHICH IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING SOUTH AND EAST. THIS
WILL BE TIED TO DAYTIME HEATING AND I DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL MERGE AND DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT WITH NOSE OF H3 JET SLIDING
OVER EASTERN COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THIS UPPER LOW DEEPENS
BETTER FORCING WILL MAINLY BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO...LIKELY
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. DESPITE THIS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE 12Z-20Z TIME FRAME. I COULD
SEE AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO...WITH LESS THAN ONE
INCH FURTHER EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OVERLAPPING PRECIP SIGNAL
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...TRACK OF MAIN UPPER LOW
AND POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
SNOW OVER NW KANSAS. I TAPERED POPS TO THE NORTHEAST IN LINE WITH
CONSENSUS...WITH AND HAVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS SOUTH.

TEMP FORECAST WED MAY BE ON THE COLDER SIDE AS H85 TEMPS AROUND -4C
RANGE ARE ADVERTISED BY MOST GUIDANCE. WITH CLOUD COVER/PRECIP IN
THE WEST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH WARMING
AT ALL...AND TEMPS HOVERING AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING. IN THE EAST
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER BY THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE LOW 40S. NOT AN EASY TEMP
FORECAST AS POSITION OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE CUTOFF
IN SUB FREEZING HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2015

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 00Z THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
COUPLE OF EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES. ONE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY
BUT WILL LACK ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE THAN A FEW
AFTERNOON SPRINKLES AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE LOWER 50S. ANOTHER
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL BE TOO FAR AWAY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THOUGH
IT WILL CREATE A TIGHT HEIGHT AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL
AREA LIKE MCCOOK AND HILL CITY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2015

KGLD...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER
10KTS THROUGH 15Z WITH NEAR 12KT WINDS FROM 16Z THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR SKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE 16Z-24Z TIMEFRAME AS SCT POSSIBLY BKN MVFR CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE
TERMINAL DURING THE TIME OF LOWER CLOUDS.

KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CIGS EXPECTED BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH TOWARD THE 21Z-24Z TIMEFRAME AS MVFR CLOUDS POSSIBLY
COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

1020 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

Guidance continues to verify poorly with respect to temperatures.
Been the case for 3 days now. Last night`s decoupling resulted in
poor low temp verification (much cooler than forecast). In fact
the 96-120 hr low temp forecast from a few days ago was better
than the short term guidance. Flip side, readings in west KY into
SEMO soaring faster than any short term and hi res guidance can
handle this morning. RUC seems to be the closest. Sfc low setting
near KUNO with a quasi warm front extending east into srn IL and
west KY. Made adjustments to the hourly gridded temp forecast.
Will see if the highs hold across southern sections. Edged them up
a degree or so some locales. At least it`s mild, and not a major
item in the grand scheme of things.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 253 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

Tranquil wx today yields to increasing clouds and a small chance
of glancing showers tmrw. This occurs as a broadening long wave
trof digs over the mid Ms valley, in response to repeated shots of
energy streaming from the Plains toward/across the Oh valley. The
net effect for our FA is a slight/gradual increase in moisture in
the atmospheric column, while temps cool slightly in response to
the trof`ing.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 253 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

Despite the relative similarity of the mean upper air pattern of the
medium range guidance, there continues to be some run-to-run
inconsistency on the orientation of the western/southwestern U.S.
ridge and the northeast U.S./Canadian trough. Ensemble guidance does
not seem to favor a deeper eastern U.S. trough/dominant western
ridge. The combination tends to limit the potential for significant
precipitation through Saturday.

Although the mechanism generating instability/moisture across the
area varies from the GFS/ECMWF, both sharpen the trough enough
to support precipitation over the WFO PAH forecast area for Sunday
and Monday of next week. Some of the diagnostic guidance does not
suggest that this is an forecast anomaly, so believe that there is
support for precipitation early next week.

No significant changes to the extended with this package.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 253 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

Other than occasional high clouds, tranquil wx will be the rule
across all flight terminals this valid time period as VFR
conditions prevail.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1053 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATION
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. AS SUCH...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WERE WARRANTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON OBSERVATION AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ATTM.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...THE REGION WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW
ALOFT BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD AND FLAT RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDING INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN U.S. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WERE LOCATED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THROUGH TUESDAY...THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US AND EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF THE US AND THE SHORTWAVES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW CARVING OUT A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A GENERAL
BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND AND A ANOTHER SFC HIGH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. IN
THIS NW FLOW...MODELS TRACK A SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND THIS ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALSO WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT WEAK SHORTWAVES SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AND SOME MID CLOUDS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AS WELL. HOWEVER..DESPITE THE 0Z GFS FORECAST...THE
DRIER HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS THE 0Z NAM AND 0Z ECMWF SEEM TO FIT THE
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL ALSO WILL LIKELY BE ON THE DRIER END OF
GUIDANCE LOOKING AT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND 0Z RAOBS...AND WE OPTED
FOR DEWPOINTS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE IF NOT A LITTLE BELOW
FOR PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY. RECENT DAYS HAVE ENDED UP TOWARD THE
HIGHER END OF MOS GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY ABOVE THE SUPERBLEND FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...SO HIGHS FOR MONDAY WERE TRENDED UP ACROSS THE
BOARD. WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A NORTH AND EAST TO
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT IN GENERAL.

THE PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT OF
THE MODERATE VARIETY TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO MON LEVELS IF
NOT ABOVE ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY BACKED OFF ON THE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT LEAST HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF. THUS...WILL BACK DOWN ON POPS TO 20S
AND 30S. WE MAY END UP DRY...BUT HARD TO IGNORE THE SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS
DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. LATEST ECMWF KEEPS IT TO OUR NORTH...WHILE THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH. IN ANY EVENT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
LOW...AND OPTING TO GO WITH JUST POPS NORTH OF I-64 LATE WEDNESDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WAVE. NOT MUCH COLD AIR OR MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES AT BEST. WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS STRONG RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE REGION AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT MODELS
REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND AND REALLY
HARD TO NARROW DOWN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW. A BLENDED
APPROACHING WOULD BRING IN A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE ONE AND ONLY REAL
GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND IT REALLY DOESN`T EVEN
LOOK THAT GREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A TAD COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL
STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S EACH
DAY...POSSIBLY SEEING SOME 50S BY SATURDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR TO INVADE THE AREA BY
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN NW
FLOW OR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA LATE
IN THE PERIOD ARE ANTICIPATED. ANY CIGS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN IN THE
VFR CATEGORY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

654 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON OBSERVATION AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ATTM.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN NW
FLOW OR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA LATE
IN THE PERIOD ARE ANTICIAPTED. ANY CIGS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN IN THE
VFR CATEGORY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

308 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN NW
FLOW OR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ANY CIGS
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL AVERAGE 5KT OR LESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

621 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015

LATEST STLT IMAGERY INDICATES LK INDUCED VORTEX E OF THE KEWEENAW IS
TENDING TO TURN MORE TO THE NNE AND AWAY FM THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
THIS MOTION IS IN LINE WITH THE LLVL SSW FLOW THIS MESOVORTEX IS
ENCOUNTERING ON THE NRN FLANK OF SFC RDG AXIS ORIENTED E-W ACROSS
UPR MI. OPTED TO LOWER POPS OVER THE KEWEENAW FOR THIS EVNG BASED ON
THIS CHANGE IN TRACK.

CONSIDERING THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH PWAT IN THE
0.10 TO 0.15 RANGE...OPTED TO LOWER FCST MIN TEMPS OVER THE ERN CWA
WHERE SKIES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN MOCLR AND WINDS LGT THRU THE NGT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS WELL SW OF THE
UPPER LAKES. VIS SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE
W-SW FCST AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NCNTRL AND ERN
FCST AREA. MESOSCALE LOW IS EVIDENT JUST EAST OF THE KEWEENAW AND
MOVING SLOWLY EAST.

TONIGHT...LATEST HIGH RES MODELS HAVING A POOR TIME RESOLVING
MESOSCALE FEATURE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT...HAD TO ADJUST POPS UP TO 50-60 PCT OVER THE TIP OF
THE KEWEENAW AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LES
POTENTIAL. ALSO BUMPED UP SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1-2 INCHES OVER
THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THIS MAY BE TOO
CONSERVATIVE GIVEN FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOOK TO THE MESOLOW ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE.

ELSEWHERE TONIGHT TEMPS AND CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AND
DETERMINING HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING LINE REACHES INTO SW UPPER MI
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS. AT A
MININUM...WHERE THERE IS CLEARING...SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWERING INTO
AT LEAST THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO AND PROBABLY WILL REACH COLDER
THAN -10F AT SOME OF THE COLDER EASTERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WILL
KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 10-12F OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM MANITOBA/NRN ONTARIO
WILL PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH INTO NW UPPER MI/SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR.
LOOK FOR THIS TROUGH TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT LES AS 850
MB TEMPS LINGER AROUND -11C. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
POPS OVER NW AND NCNTRL ZONES. EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FM CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND REACH INTO THE LOWER 20S EAST TO MID TO UPPER 20S
WEST AND CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH
OF THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR
W. AS A RESULT...A SERIES OF WAVES WILL DIVE S ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOVER IN THE
20S TO LOW 30S...WHICH IS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
TO LATE JANUARY.

TO BEGIN 00Z THURSDAY NW FLOW OVER THE W HALF AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR -
12C...WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WILL BE OPPOSED TO THE
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT SNOW. UPPER MI WILL BE IN
BETWEEN A WAVE SLIDING TO OUR S...AND AN ADDITIONAL WAVE STRETCHING
FROM THE 500MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
STRETCHING ACROSS ONTARIO. WHILE COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY SLIDE IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN.

STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AS UPPER MI RESIDES BETWEEN THE STRONG LOW SETTLING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND A ORGANIZED LOW ACROSS N MANITOBA AT 00Z FRIDAY.
EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT TO CROSS N AND CENTRAL ONTARIO FRIDAY...AND
EXIT ACROSS JAMES BAY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
/AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL/ LOOK REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
850MB TEMPS RISE TO 0 TO 3C...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MAIN SFC TROUGH WILL USHER
COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE CWA SATURDAY...WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS
THROUGH THE DAY. DECREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT WE HAD
ORIGINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING STILL LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD OF
STRONGEST WINDS. THE 20/12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN WITH 40-50KT W WINDS
AT 850MB 06-12Z FRIDAY.

LOOKING FARTHER OUT...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES AS WE
MOVE INTO THE LONGER RANGE OF THIS FCST...FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON ON.
ONE CHANGE FOR THIS ISSUANCE WAS TO LIMIT THE TIME OF N-NE WINDS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BRINING LIGHT TO MODERATE LES INTO N CENTRAL
UPPER MI. THE 02/12Z ECMWF STILL HOLDS ONTO THE EXTENDED DURATION OF
COOL N-NE WINDS...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C. THE GFS SWEEPS A LOW
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH VARIED WIND DIRECTIONS. WILL CONTINUE A BLEND
AT THIS TIME...AND WAIT FOR FCST MODELS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS LATER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015

EXPECT MOCLR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS AT SAW THIS EVNG WITHIN DRY E LLVL
FLOW TO GIVE WAY TO MORE CLDS/MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNGT AND WED AS THE
FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC SHIFTS TO A MORE NNW DIRECTION THAT WL ALLOW
MORE SC TO DRIFT BACK INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME DRY AIR HAS
TEMPORARILY MOVED OVER CMX...THE TREND TOWARD A MORE W THAN NW FLOW
WL ADVECT MORE CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH MORE MSTR TO THE W TRAPPED BLO
SUBSIDENCE INVRN BACK OVER THIS SITE...RESULTING IN PREDOMINANT MVFR
CIGS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. THIS SAME LLVL FLOW WL MAINTAIN LO CLDS/
MVFR CONDITIONS AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015

A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY WITH WINDS
BELOW 30 KNOTS. HOWEVER...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS THU
NIGHT WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TOWARD JAMES BAY. WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FRI INTO SAT AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1158 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO
THE NE CONUS WITH WNW FLOW UPSTREAM FROM BC AND THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH THE NRN CONUS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO NW MN SUPPORTED
LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
SHRTWV WAS MOVING INTO NRN MONTANA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES FROM
HUDSON BAY INTO NRN ONTARIO WAS BUILDING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES
WITH BACKING/INCREASINGLY ACYC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...NRLY FLOW WITH 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -15C STILL
SUPPORTED LIGHT LES INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE CLOUD LAYER IN THE
DGZ...SUPPORTED HIGHER SLR/FLUFFY SNOW.

EXPECT THAT THE LES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH
MAINLY JUST A FEW LEFTOVER FLURRIES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT/EASTERLY AND INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 3K
FT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND PCPN WITH
THE MONTANA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED 285K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT KEEPING
THE BEST FORCING OVER WI AS THE SHRTWV TRACKS TOWARD THE SRN GREAT
LAKES. SNOW CHANCES SHOULD MOVE IN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND END
OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST PCPN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WI BORDER.
HOWEVER...QPF OF ONLY AROUND 0.05-0.10 IS EXPECTED WITH SNOW AMOUNTS
OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. ONLY CHANCE POPS REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL LEAD
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THESE CLIPPERS
WILL BE BRINGING CANADIAN AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THE COLDEST AIR
WILL REMAIN OVER HUDSON BAY UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK WHEN THE LONG
RANGE MODELS INDICATE IT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THUS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH THE CLIPPERS. BETWEEN THE
CLIPPERS THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT 925/850MB TEMPS ARE FAIRLY MARGINAL AND THE WIND FIELDS
ARE CONSTANTLY FLUCTUATING TO SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS. ALL IN ALL...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR
THE PERIOD.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE LEAVING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...THERE APPEARS
TO BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE 925MB TEMPS AROUND -10C...THERE
WOULD BE SUPPORT FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BUT WIND FIELDS ARE LIGHT
AND HIGHLY VARIABLE (DUE TO THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA)...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE REALLY STARTING TO PICK UP ON THIS MARGINAL
MOISTURE AND ARE STRUGGLING TO SPIT OUT ANY QPF. THUS...WILL
TREND DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY
NIGHT...CONFINING THEM LARGELY TO THE KEWEENAW AND OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED...THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FORCING BELOW THE FAVORED ICE CRYSTAL REGION. BUT...THAT IS
ASSUMING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH LIMITED
CONFIDENCE...WILL ONLY INCLUDE THE FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND HURON MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.

A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LEADING TO WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY BACKING
WESTERLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH.
THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST TROUGH...LARGELY
OVER THE KEWEENAW...BUT THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW WILL BE
WITH THE SECOND WAVE ON THURSDAY (WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO). WILL SHOW LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SNOW (AMOUNTS LIKELY UNDER AN INCH) OVER THE
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES SHAPE AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT (AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH). BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...850MB TEMPS ARE STILL MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AND WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE IN THE NORTHWEST WIND BELTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A HIGH
FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK AS THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO LOW.
THAT WILL PUT THE PCPN CHANCES IN THE NORTHERLY WIND AREAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015EXPECT PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
IN SLOWLY VEERING E FLOW OFF LK SUP UNDER LOW INVERSION BASE ON THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF HIGH PRES MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH ONTARIO FOR IWD
AND CMX AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SAW. AS WINDS GO EAST AT
SAW...THIS CUTS OFF THE LAKE EFFECT PCPN AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
SCATTERED CLOUD DECK WILL DEVELOP AND LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
VSBY AT IWD WITH LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIODS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 30
KNOTS. BY FRIDAY...SW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

705 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015
EXPECT PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
IN SLOWLY VEERING N TO E FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER LOW INVERSION
BASE ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HIGH PRES MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH
ONTARIO. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
VSBY AT IWD WITH LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

511 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

EXPECT PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT CMX AND
SAW IN SLOWLY VEERING N TO E FLOW OFF LK SUP UNDER LO INVRN BASE ON
THE SRN FLANK OF HI PRES MOVING SLOWLY THRU NW ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME IFR VSBYS UNDER MORE NMRS SHSN IMPACTING SAW EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN MORE FAVORABLE NNE UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN
PLACE... CONTINUED LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WL TEND TO REDUCE THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THIS LES. THE FCST FOR IWD IS A BIT MORE
TRICKY. ALTHOUGH THE NEAR SFC FLOW HAS SHIFTED TO A DOWNSLOPE E
DIRECTION...A MORE NW FLOW JUST BLO THE SUBSIDENCE INVRN WL ALLOW
SOME MVFR CIGS TO HAND ON A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. BUT
AS THE INVRN BASE CONTINUES TO SINK...STILL EXPECTING THE LO CLDS TO
DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. BUT
AS ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LO PRES TRACKS THRU THE UPR MIDWEST
ON MON AFTN/EVNG...SOME -SN AND MVFR CONDITIONS ON THE NRN FLANK
OF THIS DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO RETURN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

323 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

A WEAK MID-LEVEL S/W EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TONIGHT AND
COMBINE WITH WEAK WAA/850-925MB F-GEN ORIENTED FROM NW MN INTO
W-CENTRAL WI TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT MOISTURE
PROFILES DRYING OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT ALOFT AND SOME AREAS LOSING
ICE CRYSTALS IN THE SOURCE REGION. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE PRECIP TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FZDZ TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO ONLY RANGE
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH NO ICE ACCUM EXPECTED.

ONE AREA THAT MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
NORTH SHORE NORTH OF TACONITE HARBOR WHERE A WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND HAS BEEN PERSISTING AROUND GRAND MARAIS WITH EAST WINDS AND
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER THE ERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SHOULD
SEE THIS BAND SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS
IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF AN INCH OR LESS AROUND
GRAND MARAIS THIS AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH MORE OUT
OF IT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE MAIN S/W ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO
THE SE TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF THROUGH
THE DAY...LIKELY LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SRN COUNTIES AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS SRN MN.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE WEAK RIDGE BUBBLE SITS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH RELATIVELY
DRY AIR. CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST AS THE COOL NWLY FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...AND INTO THE MID 20S TO THE SOUTH. ON
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY WITH
HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP AS THEY IMPACT THE NORTHLAND. WE HAVE
MAINLY SMALL POPS AT THIS TIME AS TIMING OF THE WAVES WILL BE A
CHALLENGE. FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SOME SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS GOOD WAA WILL OCCUR.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS NEAR OR A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

A FEW PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVES AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT. THE LAKE EFFECT ALSO DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG
THROUGH THE WEEK AS BOTH FETCH AND INSTABILITY ARE LACKING FOR HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

A STRONGER SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF THIS WEEKEND. A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS A NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPS INTO THE
AREA. AT THIS TIME...HEAVY SNOW LOOKS UNLIKELY BUT SOME ACCUMULATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE TRACK HOLDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND AS OF LATE MORNING WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH AS WELL. WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO
LOWER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING LOW
MVFR TO IFR.

WE ALSO EXPECT A PERIOD OR TWO OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME FZDZ.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SOME FZDZ AS LACK OF ICE
CRYSTALS ALOFT OCCUR OVER FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SOUNDINGS FOR FZDZ.
WE DID NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AND
ADD IF NEEDED. THE HRRR AND NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING AN AREA OF PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WE FOLLOWED
AND HAVE A PERIOD OF PREVAILING SNOW IN MOST OF THE TAFS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 24 27 22 28 / 50 20 10 20
INL 18 27 20 26 / 10 10 20 30
BRD 26 30 22 28 / 30 30 20 30
HYR 24 30 17 28 / 60 20 10 20
ASX 22 26 18 27 / 60 20 20 20

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

826 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES DRY COLD FRONT SITUATED JUST ALONG
THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE S
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NRLY
WINDS AND DECREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. AREAS S OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY S OF I-20...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
ALREADY SEEING SOME FOG DEVELOP JUST TO THE W OF THE REGION AND
EXPECT SOME MORE TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BETWEEN 06-15Z. WOULD NOT
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN SPOTS BUT DUE TO DECREASING
MOISTURE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL BE PATCHY AT BEST. ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS. HRRR INDICATES SOME FOG IN THE W BUT NOTHING
DENSE OR WIDESPREAD BUT WITH THE GFS-LAMP INDICATING LOW VISIBILITIES
IN THE SE AND TEMPS DROPPING QUICKLY...KEPT IT GOING INTO THE S/SE.
LOWS LOOK GOOD OVERALL. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY GRIDS TO
CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

.AVIATION...A DRY COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MLU TO GTR AT
02Z WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE NORTH AROUND 6-8KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SOME MVFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS WL BE POSSIBLE BY 09Z ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 AND SOME
MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS WL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR KMEI/KHBG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TONIGHT
THEN AREAWIDE VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AFTER 14Z. /22/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RETURNING TONIGHT BEHIND A DRY
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
SOME WITH LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

RAIN LOOKS TO BE RIGHT AT OUR DOORSTEP THURSDAY MORNING AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF A DIGGING WAVE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW HELPING TO ORIENT ISENTROPIC SURFACES FOR
UPWARD MOTION IN THE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

AS MID/UPPER SYSTEM PIVOTS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL PROVIDE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
INCREASED WIND FIELD.

MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG THE UPPER FL COAST. WHILE
LAPSE RATES AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK PROMISING
OVER OUR AREA...POSSIBILITIES DO LOOK BETTER WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF
THE WARM SECTOR OVER NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA.

WOULD TYPICALLY BE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS WITH AN EVENT LIKE THIS...BUT MODELS
CAN NOT SEEM TO FIND ENOUGH COLD AIR. EC IS HINTING AT THIS
POSSIBILITY BEFORE THE PRECIP EVENT ENDS...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE THE
OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.

CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DROPPING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MONDAY LOOKS TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND A COOL DOWN IN TEMPS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS WITH A SYSTEM LIKE THIS. AT PRESENT...BOUNDARY
LAYER LOOKS A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR THIS...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS CHANGES IN FUTURE RUNS. /27/26/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 41 62 42 54 / 0 2 19 67
MERIDIAN 40 63 40 56 / 0 2 10 47
VICKSBURG 39 60 42 52 / 0 2 23 77
HATTIESBURG 43 67 43 57 / 0 3 9 61
NATCHEZ 43 62 45 51 / 0 2 27 77
GREENVILLE 38 59 40 51 / 0 2 20 54
GREENWOOD 38 62 39 51 / 0 2 18 35

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DC/22/27/26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

632 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

BASED ON THE MOST RECENT REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AND HRRR MODEL RUNS...
ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND THEN
ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO BUMPED UP SKY COVER A BIT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS
TODAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY DROP
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE LIGHT PCPN ACROSS OUR NRN CWA TODAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY ONLY ALLOW A FEW
SPRINKLES TO HIT THE GROUND BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.

A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. SOME LIGHT PCPN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT THE MAJORITY OF IT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. A SECONDARY MID LEVEL LOBE WILL FOLLOW THE SAME
TRACK AND COULD PRODUCE LIGHT PCPN JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR
CWA AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY WELL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HAVE HIGHS RANGING FORM THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S IN THE SOUTH WHICH IS 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER AS
COLDER POCKET OF 850MB AIR SETTLES SOUTH. WEDNESDAY LOOKS SLIGHTLY
COOLER YET WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID 30S IN OUR NORTH TO LOW
40S IN OUR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL DROP THROUGH THIS FLOW WITH THE
STRONGEST COMING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN POPS
ARE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AT THIS TIME BUT TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH ANY CEILINGS LIKELY
TO BE AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOMING NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE QUICKLY TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS OVER THE AREA...BUT CHANCES SEEMED LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

644 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE NOW OFF TO THE EAST...THE ILN FORECAST AREA IS
NOW LOCATED UNDER A SMALL AREA OF RIDGING ALOFT. THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT REMAINS VERY TIGHT...DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS. THE CLOUDS
AND SNOW PACK IN THE NORTH ARE HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS
COOLER...WHILE VERY CLEAR SKIES IN THE SOUTH HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
BIG DIURNAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. THERE ALSO REMAINS A WEAK
AND NEBULOUS SURFACE BOUNDARY...STRETCHED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AS
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
(WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). EVEN THOUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO NEAR FREEZING (WITH MID 30S IN THE FAR SOUTH). WITH DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND AT LEAST SOME IMPACT
EXPECTED FROM THE INCOMING CLOUDS...MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL COME WITH A FEW
ITEMS WORTH DISCUSSING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE QUICK WESTERLY
FLOW WILL APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS THIS OCCURS...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100-PLUS KNOT UPPER JET
WILL BE POSITIONING ITSELF FAVORABLY...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO
DEVELOPS NEAR 700MB. COMBINED TOGETHER...THE ILN FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN AN AREA OF DEVELOPMENTAL PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH OHIO AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELY IN
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST RAP MODEL
RUNS.

BEHIND THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE...TEMPERATURES JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WILL BEGIN COOLING...AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY. THERE IS LITTLE REFLECTION OF THIS AT THE
SURFACE...AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY
NEBULOUS...THOUGH THE LIGHT WINDS MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST.
BY LATE MORNING...LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP...AND WHETHER
PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN OR SNOW WILL LARGELY BE ABLE TO BE
DEFINED BY SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN SHARP...SO A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS LIKELY AS
CONDITIONS WARM AND COOL.

HOWEVER...JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...A SMALL WARM AND SATURATED
LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR 925MB. PRECIPITATION COMING OUT OF
THIS LAYER WILL LIKELY BE LIQUID...NECESSITATING A CAREFUL LOOK AT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE
ADJUSTMENTS DESCRIBED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...ONLY A SMALL
SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE
30-32 DEGREE RANGE...GENERALLY IN WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OHIO.
IN FACT...SOME MODELS ALLOW THESE LOCATIONS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AS THE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF ITS DEVELOPMENT. COMING OUT OF A FEW RELATIVELY WARM
DAYS...ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR ICING ARE NOT FAVORABLE...AND
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...IF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FALL OFF MORE THAN FORECAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THIS LINE OF THINKING WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED.
FOR THE GRIDS...ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN WAS LIMITED TO JUST A
CHANCE...AND ICE ACCUMULATION GRIDS WERE KEPT BLANK. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
FAR NORTHERN TIER OF ILN COUNTIES...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM WAPAKONETA TO NEWARK.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AT LEAST AFTER A BRIEF LULL FOLLOWING
THE CURVED BAND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST
A SECOND WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z (JUST SOUTH OF THE
WEAKENING 700MB LOW)...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
THOUGH DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AFTER 00Z...REMAINING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WANE MARKEDLY
BY THURSDAY...WITH AN ELONGATED WEST-TO-EAST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS THE REGION...CAUGHT IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WELL TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. WNW FLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
WILL TURN ADVECTION TO THE COOL SIDE...LEADING TO A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. SKY GRIDS WERE INCREASED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AS IT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FRIDAY EVENING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST SE OF THE FA. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. KEPT MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS
TIME.

MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON A SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME. WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION
HOWEVER KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANGE CATEGORY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. AFTER THIS TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOWER VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES WHILE
ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CINCINNATI
TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING REGION WIDE BETWEEN 08Z AND
12Z. AT THE SAME TIME A DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO
FORM AND PRIMARILY IMPACT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS BEFORE MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A BIT OF A QUESTION AND FOR
NOW HAVE KEPT THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. APPEARS THAT IFR CEILINGS MAY GET
DRAWN INTO COLUMBUS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE THAT OUT AT KDAY AND KILN ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO
BE A LOWER CHANCE AT THIS POINT. CEILINGS WILL LIFT SLOWLY DURING
THE DAY ALTHOUGH ONLY THE CINCINNATI AREA SHOULD GET TO VFR.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING IN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD MAY BRING
RAIN TO KDAY. THAT COULD REACH KILN AND KCMH/KLCK TOWARDS 00Z. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST. THE WINDS WILL GET TO AROUND 10KT
DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

425 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY... BUT WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER SO ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED
AGAIN TODAY... IT SHOULD NOT BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY. THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE DONE A VERY POOR JOB AT DEWPOINT PROJECTIONS
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAP DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY... WHICH MAKE MORE SENSE AT THIS POINT
ANYWAY. COOLER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BECOME CLOSER TO AVERAGE BEGINNING TOMORROW.

ONE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TOMORROW AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNAL OF LIGHT
QPF ACROSS THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING SO WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT UNANIMOUS... THERE HAS BEEN A
PERSISTENT SIGNAL OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING
IN ADDITION TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO OUR
SOUTH IN TEXAS. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE CURRENT TIMING... A LOT OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID... ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET
COOL ENOUGH TO SEE A MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN AT LEAST THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OR
SO OF ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTHWEST AND WILL WATCH FORECAST TRENDS
AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 39 57 34 / 0 0 10 0
HOBART OK 69 38 57 33 / 0 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 39 61 36 / 0 0 10 0
GAGE OK 68 34 55 29 / 0 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 65 36 55 29 / 0 10 20 0
DURANT OK 66 40 62 38 / 0 0 10 0

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

849 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MID TN. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD BUT BE MOSTLY GONE BY 06Z. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR BUT WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST IS GENERALLY
UNCHANGED.

SHAMBURGER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/

UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

AVIATION...

VFR. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION...WITH SOME LOWERING CEILINGS MOVING IN
LATER TONIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...WITH POSSIBLE CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN IN KCKV. OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
MORNING WITH WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASED THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WAS PUSHING
ACROSS THE KANSAS-MISSOURI AREA. A DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT, THAT
WAS LOCATED FROM NORTH OF CSV TO NEAR PULASKI AT 20Z, SEPARATED
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE FRONT, TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S FURTHER WEST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING, AS THE DISTURBANCE ZIPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WON`T COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT, WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE
LOW-TO-MID 30S.

ZONAL UPPER FLOW ALLOWS FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF MILD
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.

ON THURSDAY, CLOUDINESS INCREASES, AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
AREA SWINGS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN TEXAS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPS OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM KICKS
EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE
MID STATE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF WINTRY MIX ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 40S ON FRIDAY, ENDING ANY WINTRY MIX IN A FAST HURRY.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW KEEPS OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK, AND IT`S POSSIBLE THAT A CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD BRING A WINTRY
MIX TO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY MONDAY, AS COLDER AIR SWINGS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN FACT, BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
GRADUALLY FALL DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
OCCUR IN THE MORNING. BY MONDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
COOLED SUFFICIENTLY MOST AREAS, TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN MOST AREAS
FURTHER WEST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY SUNRISE TUESDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER BUT
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
TO THE LOWER 40S MOST OTHER AREAS.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

917 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOG SHOULD BE THE ISSUE TONIGHT. SPLIT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING NEAR THE COAST AND SPREADING
INLAND TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES. BPT AT 1/4 MILE AND PSX/GLS/ARM
ARE DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES. VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXIST FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT AND SEAS FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING CLL/DKR. NOT CERTAIN THAT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL END THE THREAT FOR FOG BUT MAY FAVOR A LOW STRATUS
DECK. ATTM HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UP FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF AN EDNA-SUGARLAND-HOUSTON-LIBERTY LINE TIL 7 AM...BUT MAY NEED
TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY AREA A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH SO WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE TO THE OBSERVATIONS TONIGHT. RAIN SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE WEST. 45

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/

AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS CENTER AROUND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM
FOG AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR /POTENTIALLY LIFR/ STRATUS
OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DETERIORATING LATE TONIGHT AS FOG DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY /PRESENTLY LOCATED IN CENTRAL TEXAS/. BOTH THE RAP AND
HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO IFR AT
THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-09Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON HOW MUCH VISIBILITIES WILL DROP OVER THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS /MAINLY COLLEGE STATION AND HUNTSVILLE/ AS THE
FRONT WILL CLEAR THESE SITES AROUND 09Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS...REACHING THE COASTAL SITES
AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY BECOMING MVFR TOWARDS MIDDAY. RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...BUT PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING AROUND
5 TO 8 KNOTS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 8 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THEN EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM PINE BLUFF TO JUST
SOUTH OF DFW TO MAF. MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS SEA FOG
POTENTIAL...HOW FAR THE FOG WILL MOVE INLAND...TIMING THE ONSET
AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WATER TEMPS ARE 50-51 AND SFC DEW PTS
ARE NEAR 60 SO CONDITIONS SEEM RIPE FOR DENSE SEA FOG TO DEVELOP.
THE HRRR DID A GREAT JOB TIMING THE ONSET AND AREA OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT LAST NIGHT SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR SOLUTION
TONIGHT. ATTM...DENSE FOG SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST BETWEEN
00-01Z AND GRADUALLY EXPAND INLAND. THE WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH
WILL BE MOVING SOUTH AND WILL CROSS THE CWA BY 09Z. AM NOT SURE
HOW THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. STRONGER
WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO LIFT THE
FOG INTO A LOW STRATUS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT FOR COASTAL COUNTIES AND PROBABLY THE NEXT
TIER OF COUNTIES INLAND.

FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS. PROBABLY GET SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS SATURATION
DEEPENS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND APPROACH THE 4 CORNERS REGION WED NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AND A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BEGIN TO TRAVERSE SE TX. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THIS FEATURE WILL
HELP FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO SE
TX BY EARLY THURSDAY. SE TX WILL ALSO LIE IN A STRENGTHENING
120-140 KT RRQ WHICH WILL ALSO ASSIST LIFT. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY REACHING 1.50 INCHES AROUND 18Z
THURSDAY. THIS IS 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SKINNY SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 300
MB SO RAINFALL COULD GET BRIEFLY HEAVY THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTN. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COASTAL LOW EXITS THE REGION. THAT SAID...STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND
LIFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODS OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE GOING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT FRIDAY NIGHT AND MSTR LEVELS BEGIN TO
DROP SO ANY REMAINING LT RAIN WILL COME TO AN END. CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY PERIODS OF CIRRUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CA WILL CREATE A NW FLOW OVER TEXAS KEEPING THINGS DRY AND
SEASONAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
FLATTEN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. 43

MARINE...
MOIST AND WARM AIR OVER COOLER SHALLOW SHELF WATERS INCREASING THE
PROBABILITY OF RETURN SEA FOG THIS EVENING...QUICKLY BECOMING DENSE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH A GOOD MAJORITY OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IF FOG DOES FORM...VISIBILITIES WILL FALL TO A MILE OR
UNDER THUS PROMPTING AN OVERNIGHT MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. AN
EMERGING WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL ORIENT THE LATE WEEK PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...ULTIMATELY GENERATING A
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FETCH THURSDAY...BACKING MORE
NORTHERLY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS FETCH WILL
PRODUCE HIGHER COASTAL WATER LEVELS/TIDES AND CHURN THE OPEN SEAS TO
GREATER THAN 6 FEET NEARSHORE...10 FEET OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS TO GALE ARE ALSO
LIKELY DURING THIS THURSDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD OF HIGH WIND...SEAS AND
RAIN. MUCH IMPROVED WEEKEND WEATHER WITH A WEAKENING NORTHWEST TO
WEST WIND UNDER SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. 31

CLIMATE...
HOUSTON REACHED 70 DEGREES AGAIN TODAY. THIS IS THE THIRD
CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME
HOUSTON RECORDED 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 70
DEGREES WAS BACK ON DEC 11...DEC 12 AND DEC 13. 43

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 51 64 50 51 40 / 0 20 80 100 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 53 66 54 55 42 / 10 20 60 100 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 58 63 57 58 45 / 10 20 50 100 60

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

DISCUSSION...45

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

630 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS CENTER AROUND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM
FOG AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR /POTENTIALLY LIFR/ STRATUS
OVERNIGHT.

HUFFMAN

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 51 64 50 51 40 / 10 20 80 100 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 53 66 54 55 42 / 10 20 60 100 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 54 63 57 58 45 / 10 20 50 100 60

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

930 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 930 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2015

KGLD...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTH OR NORTHWEST
WINDS UNDER 10KTS THROUGH 15Z AND AFTER 00Z WITH CLOSE TO 12KT
WINDS FROM 18Z THROUGH 23Z. VFR SKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE 15Z-23Z TIMEFRAME AS SCT POSSIBLY BKN MVFR
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE AROUND THE TERMINAL DURING THE TIME OF LOWER CLOUDS.

KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS
10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CIGS EXPECTED BUT WILL NEED
TO WATCH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z (THURSDAY) AS MVFR CLOUDS
POSSIBLY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

358 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
REGION SATURDAY AND MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME MORE ROBUST ACROSS WESTERN
WV...WITH SOME ECHOS DEVELOPING OVER ERN WV AND WRN VA. THIS
PARTICULAR BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WAS NOT CAUGHT ON HI RES MODELS.

DURING THE DAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS IT
MOVES ACROSS OHIO INTO PA...WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATES. GFS INDICATES BETTER CONVERGENCE AND
BANDING POTENTIAL OVER PENDLETON AND HIGHLAND COUNTIES...WHICH IS
ALSO INDICATED ON SOME RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A CERTAIN DEGREE ON
THE OOZ NAM FIRE WEATHER NEST. INCREASED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
AND EXTENDED WINTER WX ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THESE TWO COUNTIES.

PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EARLY
MORNING TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING ALMOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR
URBAN AND MARINE INFLUENCED AREAS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
DURING THE MORNING...WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS HANGING ON THE LONGEST
OVER NRN MD WHERE WEDGE OF COOLER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WILL PERSIST. THIS AREA...AND THE HIGHLANDS...ARE FORECAST
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 2-3 INCHES. AMOUNTS
DECREASE HEADING SOUTH...WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE DC METRO.

CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LOW FOR SOUTHERN MARYLAND INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN MIXING IN.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENDS AT 6 PM. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AN HOUR OR TWO BEYOND THIS IN PARTS OF MARYLAND NEAR
THE BAY PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...BUT LOW PRESSURE SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PROMOTE AN END TO PRECIPITATION.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL RE-FREEZE. PATCHY DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO SATURATED LOW
LEVELS AND COOLER AIR TRAPPED ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...WET OR
SLUSHY ROADS MAY RE- FREEZE AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

"FAST FLOW IN A WRN RDG/ERN TROF" SORT OF SUMS UP A DECENT PART OF
THE XTND FCST. THE FIRST PART OF THE FCST IS RLVTLY PLACID AS HIGH
PRES SETTLES OVR THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE LM40S...LOWS IN THE M20S
XCPT WARMER IN THE CITIES.

WHILE NOTHING LOOKS AS AMPLIFIED AS IT DID LAST JAN THE MDLS ARE
STILL PROJECTING A RDG OVR THE WRN U.S. W/ RLVTLY FAST MOVG LOW
PRES AREAS COMING OUT OF AN ACTIVE SRN STRM. THE FIRST OF THESE
LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA FRI NGT/SAT. THERE ISN`T A LOT OF COLD
AIR ACROSS THE ERN U.S. BUT IF THE LOW TAKES A TRACK FM GA TO ORF
THAT WL KEEP THE CWA ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THINGS. ATTM BOTH GFS
AND EURO ARE KEEPING THE 850-1000MB TCKNS BTWN 1296-1300M...JUST
COLD ENOUGH TO HV CONCERNS THE PCPN COULD FALL AS WET SNOW. WE`LL
TRY TO FINE TUNE THE DETAILS IN THE DAYS TO COME.

AND IN THE FAST FLOW IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER LOW PRES AREA WL DIVE
DOWN FM THE WRN RDG...OVR MN/WI SUN AND INTO THE MID ATLC SUN
NGT/MON. AGN THE TRACK LOOKS TO KEEP THE LOW S OF THE CWA...AND AGN
TEMP COLUMN LOOKS TO BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR CONCERNS OF
SNOW. MORE TO COME.

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
MAY BRING PRECIP/FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY.

.MARINE...

A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY. SOME CHANNELING WILL DEVELOP WITH
GUSTS INTO THE TEENS...BUT NOT EXPECTING GUSTS TO SCA CRITERIA.

WINDS XPCTD TO BE BLO SCA VALUES THU/FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRES MAY IMPACT THE WATERS SAT...BRINGING
WINTRY PCPN.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-
501-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR VAZ053-054-505-506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-
031.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ050>053-055-501>504.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
PRODUCTS....KCS/WOODY!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

345 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

UPPER MICHIGAN IS BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVES EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
ONE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA AND THE
OTHER ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS LEAVES THE CWA UNDER GENERALLY
QUIET CONDITIONS WITH THE FORECAST DEPENDENT ON SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES.

THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS THAT ERODED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN YESTERDAY UNDER THE LIGHT NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN AS 950-925MB WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST ON THE RAP ANALYSIS.
WITH WINDS ONLY AROUND 5KTS...THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW
THROUGH THE MORNING AND LIKELY OVERTAKEN THIS AFTERNOON BY THE WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHWEST OFF LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH. WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. BUT OVER
THE WESTERN U.P. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AS CLOUDS MOVED OVERHEAD HERE AT THE
OFFICE...TEMPERATURES ROSE FROM -1F AT MIDNIGHT TO 12F AT 330AM.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE
THE MAIN CONTROLLING FACTOR FOR THE FORECAST TODAY. AS THIS TROUGH
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THINK THERE WILL BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND THEN THAT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL SHOW
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THOSE AREAS. BEHIND THE TROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE WILL GRADUALLY COOL...LEADING TO
MORE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS ON THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS.
DELTA-T VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 13...WHICH IS ON THE LOW END FOR LAKE
EFFECT...AND WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING FAIRLY WEAK (1000-
850MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-7C/KM)...WOULD NOT EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT
TO GET TOO OUT OF HAND. DO GET A LITTLE HELP ALONG AND SHORTLY AFTER
THE TROUGH WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. BUT THAT REALLY DIMINISHES
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
AREA...STRENGTHENING THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION (LOWERS TO 4-4.5KFT)
AND GRADUALLY BACKS WINDS TO THE WEST BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE AREA DOES
GET BRUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT.
THIS SWEEPS A POCKET OF COLDER 850MB TEMPS (TO
-12C) SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE
NIGHT AND INCREASES THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SOME. WILL INCREASE THE POPS
OVER THE EAST AS THAT MOVES THROUGH...BUT STILL KEEP IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN SEEN A COUPLE DAYS
AGO WITH ONLY TO TOP 1KFT OF THE CLOUD IN THE BOTTOM OF THE DGZ. THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE FRACTURING DOWN...BUT
WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING BELOW THE DGZ WOULD EXPECT SNOW RATIOS
AROUND THE MID TEENS. THEREFORE THROUGH TONIGHT...HAVE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH WITH A FEW
ISOLATED AMOUNTS HIGHER THAN THAT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

EXPECT MOCLR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS AT SAW EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR TO GIVE WAY TO MORE CLDS/MVFR CONDITIONS
AS THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC SHIFTS TO A NW DIRECTION THAT WL DRAG
MORE SC TO DRIFT BACK INTO THE AREA. AT CMX AND IWD...PREDOMINANT
MVFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS MRNG WL GIVE WAY TO SOME IFR CONDITIONS AS
A LO PRES TROF DRIFTS THRU THE AREA. A BIT STRONGER NW UPSLOPE FLOW
FOLLOWING THIS TROF WL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT THESE
SITES THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AS SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR FOR
LES ARRIVES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY DROP
SOUTHEAST TODAY...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST UP TO
20KTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...LEADING TO WINDS GRADUALLY
BACKING. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWESTERLY
GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THAT PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30KTS
FOR SATURDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING AND VEERING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1227 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1102 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOG THICKENING UP QUICKLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH MANY
SITES REPORTING 1/4-1/2 MILE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE
SLOWED DRAMATICALLY NEAR CLL WHERE T/TD SPREAD IS STILL 8 DEGREES
AND UTS IS 4 DEGREES WITH LIGHT NE-ENE WINDS. HAVE EXPANDED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES NORTHWARD. FOR THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAVE EXTENDED IT ANOTHER HOUR TO 8 AM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW BOUNDARY WITH ONLY A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT
OVERNIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG SHOULD BE THE ISSUE TONIGHT. SPLIT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING NEAR THE COAST AND SPREADING
INLAND TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES. BPT AT 1/4 MILE AND PSX/GLS/ARM
ARE DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES. VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXIST FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT AND SEAS FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING CLL/DKR. NOT CERTAIN THAT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL END THE THREAT FOR FOG BUT MAY FAVOR A LOW STRATUS
DECK. ATTM HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UP FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF AN EDNA-SUGARLAND-HOUSTON-LIBERTY LINE TIL 7 AM...BUT MAY NEED
TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY AREA A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH SO WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE TO THE OBSERVATIONS TONIGHT. RAIN SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE WEST. 45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/

AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS CENTER AROUND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM
FOG AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR /POTENTIALLY LIFR/ STRATUS
OVERNIGHT.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 51 64 50 51 40 / 0 20 80 100 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 53 66 54 55 42 / 10 20 60 100 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 58 63 57 58 45 / 10 20 50 100 60

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...COLORADO...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN
JACINTO...WALLER.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

DISCUSSION...45

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

215 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA...
AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND TROUGHING
OVER EASTERN CANADA. WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH
ABOUT 0.4 OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER PER 00Z RAOB DATA HAS
ALLOWED LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST ACROSS LOCATIONS MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF I-94. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WAS
ALSO RELATIVELY WARM...NOTED BY AIR TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOW 20S TO
LOW 30S AND 850MB TEMPS OF -6 TO -8C. THESE READINGS HAVE KEPT SNOW
TO WATER RATIOS DOWN IN THAT 10-15 TO 1 RANGE...LIMITING
ACCUMULATIONS TO MOSTLY AT 1.5 INCHES OR LESS.

EXPECT THE SNOW TO BE ON A WANING TREND TODAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...
PRODUCING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...AS WELL AS THE MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FALLING APART. IN FACT...MUCH OF THE SNOW COULD
BE DONE BY 18Z...BUT KEPT SOME 20 PERCENT CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PER SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPING SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES GOING. WITH THE WEAKENING FORCING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH.
NEVERTHELESS...A SLIPPERY MORNING COMMUTE IS POSSIBLE FOR THOSE
ROADS THAT ARE NOT PLOWED OR TREATED.

ALTHOUGH THE SNOW IS TAPERING OFF...CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO HANG
AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT...DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TRAPPING
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAMPER
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING MUCH...LIKELY AT MOST TO THOSE OF
YESTERDAY. A LITTLE BIT OF COLD ADVECTION IS PROGGED TONIGHT AS
925MB TEMPS FALL FROM -4 TO -6C AT 00Z TO -6 TO -8C AT 12Z. THIS
COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

A PIECE OF THE UPPER RIDGING OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGING
ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION SHOULD HELP IN CLEARING THE SKIES OUT ON THURSDAY. THE
CLEARING LOOKS TEMPORARY AS WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS RETURN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH 925MB TEMPS ARE A BIT COLDER ON THURSDAY
COMPARED TO TODAY...MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SIMILAR
READINGS AGAIN. TEMPERATURES COULD TANK A BIT EARLY IN THE EVENING
BEFORE INCREASING WINDS CAUSE READINGS TO RISE...PARTICULARLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST...AND BREEZIEST...DAY OF THE WORK
WEEK. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA. 925MB SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 25-40 KT RANGE ARE
SUGGESTED BY THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF...BRINGING THE RESPECTIVE TEMPS UP
TO 0 TO -3C. MIXING MIGHT BE SOMEWHAT REDUCED BY MID CLOUD
COVER...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP OUT IN THE 30S TO POSSIBLY
LOW 40S. THESE READINGS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH
RANGE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN/EXPOSED LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WARM LAYER AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO NORTH OF I-90 AND LIGHT AT BEST DUE TO DRY LOW TO MID
LEVEL AIR. THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW ANY
PRECIPITATION TO END BY FRIDAY EVENING.

NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST IS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKING AIM
AT THE REGION FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. EXACT TRACK IS
A BIT UNCERTAIN...WITH THE 21.00Z GFS HEADING THROUGH WESTERN IA...
COMPARED TO RIGHT THROUGH LA CROSSE FROM THE 21.00Z ECMWF...AND
EASTERN WI IN THE 21.00Z CANADIAN. THE TRACK WILL BE IMPORTANT AS A
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG/EAST OF ITS TRACK...WHICH
COULD BE ADVISORY WORTHY. RIGHT NOW JUST HAVE TO BROAD BRUSH WITH 30-
50 PERCENT CHANCES AND WAIT UNTIL MODELS COME TOGETHER. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED THE FARTHER WEST TRACK OF THE 21.00Z GFS COMES TRUE...OR
EVEN A SOLUTION FARTHER WEST. IN GENERAL...THE SNOW LOOKS TO DEPART
THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING...BUT CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS YET
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON
NORTHERLY FLOW. FINALLY BY TUESDAY WE COULD BREAK OUT OF THE
PRECIPITATION.

IN GENERAL...MOST OF THE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL...DUE TO THE ARCTIC AIR ONLY
DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA AND A FLOW OF MOSTLY PACIFIC AIR
INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE SOME COOL DOWN...THOUGH...FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE
NORTHERLY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE LIFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LATEST METARS INDICATE CEILING HEIGHTS OF
AROUND 500 TO 1500 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTHERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE LATEST 21.00Z NAM/GFS AND 21.03Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PERSIST AT BOTH LSE AND RST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WITH THE AREA REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SURFACE LOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER WITH LIFR...IFR AND MVFR
CEILING HEIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IN THE VFR RANGE AT
BOTH TAF SITES...AS THE BETTER LIFT/FORCING PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DTJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1129 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW IS ON THE TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE TO
SNOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY FALL.

CURRENTLY...A CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO
THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
GOES THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. DRIZZLE AND FOG
IS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY
FURTHER UPSTREAM TOWARD THE SURFACE LOW WHERE THE LIFT/MOISTURE IS
DEEPER AND GENERATING ICE. AS THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...THIS CHANGE OVER WILL
SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. OVERALL LIFT LOOKS RATHER
WEAK THROUGH THE EVENT...SO SNOWFALL RATES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE BUT THE BAND OF SNOW
SHOULD BE ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW FOR A
STRIP OF HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN REGARD TO
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
THROUGH.

AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND COULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

THE MID LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH INTO
IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MARK THE END OF ANY
FLURRIES ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN. SOME WARMER LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH/FRONT WHICH WILL BRING SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AS THE FRONT DROPS DOWN...THE ONLY LIFT SEEMS TO COME
IN THE LOW LEVELS PER 20.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...THE FORCING SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK THE MOISTURE
IS LIKELY OVERDONE MAKING PRECIPITATION UNLIKELY. BASED ON THESE
SOUNDINGS...SHOULD PRECIPITATION FORM IT MAINLY WOULD BE DRIZZLE.

BEYOND THIS...THE MAIN SYSTEM OF NOTE IS WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT
IS FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW LOOK POSSIBLE
FROM THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THE CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN THERE WITH
THE TRACK WITH PREVIOUS RUNS HAVING THIS FEATURE FORMING SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THE 20.12Z GFS/ECMWF OFFER SIMILAR SCENARIOS WITH THIS
FEATURE THOUGH THE 20.12Z GEM KEEPS THE LOW TO THE NORTH IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...DTJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

905 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MOHAVE DESERT AND
ARIZONA TODAY WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
ARIZONA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE CENTRAL ARIZONA
DESERTS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS...LESS WIND ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPAND TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WHICH BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAS VEGAS AREA
LAST NIGHT IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST 88D RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING INTO YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTIES...AND EVEN
INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY AT THIS TIME...A DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER AND LIMITED PWAT VALUES (MAIN AOB 0.35 INCH) IS LIKELY KEEPING
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER FROM REACHING THE
GROUND AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST HRRR HI-RES RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...WHICH IS DEPICTED WELL IN
OUR CURRENT GRIDDED FORECASTS. THE HRRR ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EXTREME EASTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY AND OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THAT
REGION. ALONG WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE BLYTHE ASOS
ALREADY SHOWING 15 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS...AND THE GFS MOS SHOWING
25KT SUSTAINED WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON AT THAT SITE. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA DUE TO LIMITED AREAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE. AS FAR AS THE
VERY SHORT TERM IS CONCERNED...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS...CURRENT GRIDDED
AND ZONE FORECASTS STILL LOOK GOOD.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE MAIN VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE MOHAVE
DESERT AND ARIZONA IS CENTERED BETWEEN KINGMAN AND LAS VEGAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN WEAK BUT WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN
STRONGEST...CLOSEST TO THE VORT MAX CENTER...SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
HAS OCCURRED. DESPITE DECENT DYNAMICAL FORCING THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS MEAGER AS IS EVIDENT IN THE BLENDED TPW IMAGERY WITH
PWAT VALUES BARELY OVER HALF AN INCH. THE HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING
THINGS WELL OVERNIGHT AND IT SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP TRACKING JUST NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE IT DEPICTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY. OTHER HI-RES MODELS FROM NCEP AND LOCAL SOURCES DEPICT
A SIMILAR PATTERN. THIS IS LIKELY DUE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET
SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION GOING...NAM BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE INDICATING
100-150 J/KG. ANTICIPATE CAPE TO BE TOO WEAK TO GET THUNDERSTORMS
GOING BUT IT WOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A STRAY LIGHTNING
STRIKE. BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHEAST AND EAST OF PHOENIX. POPS LINGER
OVER THAT AREA TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. WINDY CONDITIONS FROM
THE NORTH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE PEAK GUSTS MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...LIGHTER WINDS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. ANTICIPATE SOME
COOLING TODAY AS WELL.

RIGHT BEHIND THIS FIRST SHORT WAVE A MORE VIGOROUS ONE COMES DOWN
FROM THE NORTH AND TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR ANY POPS WITH
IT OVER OUR AREA. HOWEVER...IT TURN UP THE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZINESS
OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO...LESS WINDY SW AZ
AND SE CAL. IT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL COOLING BRINGING HIGH
TEMPS THURSDAY INTO THE 60S ON THE LOWER DESERTS.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
BUT IT IS WEAK AND THE AIR WILL BE MUCH TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP
THREAT. PART OF THE REASON IT IS WEAK IT DUE TO A SPLIT IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WHERE MORE OF THE ENERGY TRACKS WEST. IN
FACT...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL DEEPEN INTO A
CLOSED LOW WEST OF BAJA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND
FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. ANTICIPATE LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZINESS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE DUE
TO MORE CLOUDINESS ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHWARD MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...THE LOW WEAKENS QUITE A BIT. HOWEVER...IT WILL HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THUS INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 17Z WED...OTHERWISE THROUGH 00Z THU...
BKN CLDS AOA 15 THSD AGL...VIRGA SHWRS. INCREASING NW WIND 8 TO 12
KNOTS PARTICULARLY AFTER 19Z. FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 12Z THU...
CLEAR SKIES. INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS STRONGEST
TOWARD 12Z THU.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 14Z WED...OTHERWISE THROUGH 02Z THU...
INCREASING NORTH WIND 15 TO 25 KNOTS...STRONGEST AFTER 18Z AND
FOCUSED DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COLORADO RIVER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FROM 02Z THU THROUGH 12Z
THU...DIMINISHING WIND BUT SUSTAINED 12 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AFTERNOON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20
MPH...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUE DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES INCREASING INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE BY WEDNESDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/AJ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

415 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE MAIN VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE MOHAVE
DESERT AND ARIZONA IS CENTERED BETWEEN KINGMAN AND LAS VEGAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN WEAK BUT WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN
STRONGEST...CLOSEST TO THE VORT MAX CENTER...SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
HAS OCCURRED. DESPITE DECENT DYNAMICAL FORCING THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS MEAGER AS IS EVIDENT IN THE BLENDED TPW IMAGERY WITH
PWAT VALUES BARELY OVER HALF AN INCH. THE HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING
THINGS WELL OVERNIGHT AND IT SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP TRACKING JUST NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE IT DEPICTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY. OTHER HI-RES MODELS FROM NCEP AND LOCAL SOURCES DEPICT
A SIMILAR PATTERN. THIS IS LIKELY DUE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET
SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION GOING...NAM BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE INDICATING
100-150 J/KG. ANTICIPATE CAPE TO BE TOO WEAK TO GET THUNDERSTORMS
GOING BUT IT WOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A STRAY LIGHTNING
STRIKE. BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHEAST AND EAST OF PHOENIX. POPS LINGER
OVER THAT AREA TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. WINDY CONDITIONS FROM
THE NORTH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE PEAK GUSTS MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...LIGHTER WINDS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. ANTICIPATE SOME
COOLING TODAY AS WELL.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

345 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

OPEN WAVE TROF WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AZ BY AROUND SUNRISE
TOMORROW...BRINGING INCREASING AND THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. EXPECT BKN-OVC DECKS AOA 15K FEET TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME CLEARING AT THE TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY. NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS TO BE LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...BECOMING RELATIVELY
LIGHT NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. STRONGER NORTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KBLH DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND THE
EXITING WAVE...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AT KIPL...LESS WIND EXPECTED FAVORING THE WEST THRU MID MORNING...
THEN TURNING MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY IN THE
AFTERMATH OF WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS...
GUSTS TO 25 MPH...WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA GENERALLY
FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES 8-15 MPH
AREA-WIDE. GOOD RECOVERY AT NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THE
DESERTS ARE EXPECTED IN MID 70S...BUT APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL COVER THE REGION THIS PERIOD. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 10 PERCENT IN SOUTHEAST CA...TO
20 PERCENT IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

954 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY. MEANWHILE, STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
OFF CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING AND IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO SEA
DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING UP THE COAST ON SATURDAY. BY MONDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST UP
THE EAST COAST.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE APPROACHING PRECIPITATION WAS INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA, WESTERN MARYLAND AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
AT MID MORNING. MEANWHILE, RELATIVELY DRY AIR WAS IN PLACE IN OUR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. DEW POINT READING WERE IN THE 20S ACROSS
OUR SOUTH.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO NOSE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AS THE MOISTURE OVERCOMES THE DRY
AIR.

THE LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA AROUND
MIDDAY BEFORE LIFTING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE ONE TO TWO
INCH RANGE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BIT OF SLEET IN THE SOUTH AND EVEN A LITTLE RAIN IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST AT THE ONSET. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN OUR FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S IN
SOUTHERN DELAWARE WITH A RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING AND WHAT
FOLLOWS IS CONSIDERABLY MORE CHANNELIZED. ALSO DURING THE EVENING
THE BEST PREDICTED MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE MOVES NORTH. THIS
GIVES THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA THE HIGHEST INTO THE EVENING
POPS AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE INITIAL CLIPPER LOW TRUNDLES THROUGH
OUR CWA.

MIN TEMPS WE TRIED TO STEER LOWER BECAUSE OF THE NEW SNOW COVER.
THE ONE CAVEAT THAT MIGHT WORK AGAINST IT IS THAT MODELS ARE
FORECASTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS TO LINGER MOST OF THE NIGHT.
NOT IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE SUPPOSE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE IF THE CLOUD LAYER IS THICKER THAN WE CURRENTLY BELIEVE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: ON THURSDAY THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY WILL BE WELL TO
OUR NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND IT EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A AN ISOLATED SNOW
FLAKE OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH NJ AND THE
POCONOS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION WITH CLEARING WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ALL ATTENTION
TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO THE MET AND MAV ON TEMPERATURES WITH
LITTLE DISAGREEMENT FROM THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: MODELING HAS TRENDED
WESTWARD AND FASTER WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS/VIRGINIA BEACH ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WESTWARD/FASTER TREND NOW BRINGS THE TRACK
OF THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. A OVERALL
DECREASE IN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
LEADS TO LESS UNCERTAINTY THAN WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATES. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTIES THAT STILL REMAIN ARE HOW FAR WEST THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL GET AND THE OVERALL THERMAL PROFILES.
THE 00Z NAM LOOKED TO BE A WARM/WEST RAINY OUTLIER BUT DID HAVE
SUPPORT FROM SEVERAL ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BASED ON A LOOK AT THE
MEAN. ON THE OTHER SIDE THE 00Z GFS WAS FURTHER OFFSHORE JUST
GETTING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD INTO THE POCONOS, A MAINLY SNOWY
OUTCOME PHL AND NW WITH MIX ALONG THE COAST. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS
SIMILAR BUT CHANGED THE 1-95 OVER TO RAIN LONGER.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER, DID INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FROM PHL SE AND
HIGH CHANCE NORTH TO CAPTURE INCREASING CERTAINTY OF A STORM
IMPACTING US IN THIS PERIOD. WITH THIS IN MIND SNOW CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS FROM
PHL TO THE SE CHANGING TO RAIN FOR A WHILE ON SATURDAY WITH WAA.
THEN THE CCB COMES THROUGH WITH A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW. MOUNT
POCONO APPEARS TO BE THE NORTHWARD EXTEND OF THE DRY/SNOW LINE
ATTM. THE ALL SNOW/ MIX LINE RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG THE 1-95 CORRIDOR.
COASTAL SECTIONS STAY MAINLY RAIN AFTER STARTING AND ENDING AS A
FEW HOURS OF SNOW. WENT COOLER THAN THE ENSEMBLE AND MOS GUIDANCE
TOOLS SHOW GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DYNAMICAL/ EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING WITH PRECIPITATION. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN ICING
EVENT, AS MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER
CLOSE TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT. WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW GOING EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF US, NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON LAND. TO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF TO SUGGEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ATTM.
OVERALL, A HIGH IMPACT STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE
REGION IN THIS PERIOD. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY CAN STILL CHANGE
OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS, STAY TUNED.

SUNDAY: A TEMPORARY BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN. TEMPERATURES COULD BE COOLER DUE TO SNOW COVER. WENT
COOLER THAN THE ENSEMBLE/ MEX GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN TURNS UP THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER SET-UP WHERE THE PRIMARY LOW TRANSFERS IT`S ENERGY TO A
COASTAL LOW. THERE IS A HIGHER DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES
WITH THIS FEATURE IN JUST HOW MUCH IT CAN DIG ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND STRENGTHEN ONCE IT REACHES THE EAST COAST. FOR NOW CARRYING A
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME MIX ACROSS THE COAST,
AS A COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN. SNOW COVER WILL AGAIN PLAY A ROLE IN
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS BUT DID NOT AS COLD AS THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH
MAY BE THE OTHER EXTREME.

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE TAFS BECOME IFR BY AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS WITH THE SNOW.

THIS MORNING VFR WITH CIGS LOWERING TO STRATOCU LEVEL. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS.

THIS AFTERNOON, QUICKLY BECOMING IFR WITH THE ONSET OF SNOW
ESTIMATED BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z FOR MOST TERMINALS. GENERAL
DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HEAVY ENOUGH SNOW
FOR ACCUMS ON TARMAC. THERE MAY BE SOME MIXED PCPN AT THE START AT
KMIV AND KACY. CIGS SHOULD ALSO LOWER TO IFR. NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR CIGS AS SNOW TAPERS
OFF AND ENDS. VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR ALL TERMINALS BY LATE EVENING.
NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, DECREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN
SNOW AND RAIN. MORE RAIN SOUTHEAST OF PHL AND SNOW NORTHWEST OF
PHL. NORTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY: VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS LATE WITH
SNOW.

.MARINE...
THE PREDICTED INTENSIFICATION OF THE CLIPPER LOW IS SLOW ENOUGH
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE IN OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS CLOSEST TO THE LOW. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS INCREASING
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS AND GUSTS BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS FROM THE EAST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: SEAS AND WIND GUSTS DECREASING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ071-103-104-106.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ060-070-101-102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ016>024-027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ015-019-020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ008-012.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

1025 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. MUCH OF THE CONUS SITS UNDER A
VERY BROAD AND UNAMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH. JUST A COUPLE SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THIS PARENT TROUGH. ONE PIECE OF ENERGY IS
ROTATING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...WHILE ANOTHER IS ROTATING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IT
WILL BE THIS ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWEST THAT EVENTUALLY EJECTS
EASTWARD TO GIVE US OUR NEXT SHOT AT SOME RAIN LATER FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WE FIND A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WITH PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY.
THE MORNING 21/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED THIS UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WELL...WITH A DRAMATIC DROP IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE
700MB. AT THE SURFACE WE FIND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...HOWEVER A RIDGE EXTENDS WELL TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FROM THIS HIGH CENTER...ALL THE WAY TO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL AND DRY FLOW ALOFT...
THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO FOCUS FOR SYNOPTIC LIFT ANYWHERE NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...OUR FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY.
LOOKING AT NEAR 100% OF THE POSSIBLE SUNSHINE LATE THIS MORNING THAT
WILL GIVE WAY TO ONLY A FEW-SCT SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL MIXING INTERACTS WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
SEASONABLE WITH LOWER 70S NORTH TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGH THE I-4
CORRIDOR...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST PROVIDING A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE PENINSULA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE NATURE COAST...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S
TRAVELING FURTHER SOUTH. WHERE THE RIDGE IS STRONGEST OVER THE
NATURE COAST...A FEW SPOTS MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT AND
RADIATE DOWN BRIEFLY INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S. THESE COOLER
LOCATIONS WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE...BUT THOSE THAT DO DECOUPLE MAY
ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF FOG TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY MORNING.

WHILE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL STAY DRY AND QUIET ON THURSDAY...OUR
ATTENTION WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SYSTEM EVOLVING TO OUR WEST.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY...WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND LOWER MS VALLEY BY LATE IN
THE DAY. IT WILL BE THIS SYSTEM THAT EVENTUALLY BRINGS US SOME
INCLEMENT WEATHER BY LATER FRIDAY. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...THURSDAY
WILL START OUT WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
RISING INTO THE 70S ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE LATER INTO
THURSDAY WE GET...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER THE SUN
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST INCREASES. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING WELL EAST OF THE MAIN SYSTEM AND
ARRIVING OVERHEAD FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.

ENJOY YOUR WEDNESDAY EVERYONE!

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH A SCT SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND
AREAS WITH KLAL AND KPGD POSSIBLY SEEING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS
IN THE FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. ANY PATCHY FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 74 59 76 64 / 0 0 10 10
FMY 79 61 79 65 / 0 0 10 10
GIF 76 58 76 62 / 0 0 10 10
SRQ 75 58 77 64 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 76 51 76 60 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 74 61 75 65 / 0 0 10 10

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...DOUGHERTY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

1010 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FL PENINSULA GAINING THE BACKSIDE OF A
BROAD SFC/LOW LVL TROF THANKS TO A STRONG ZONAL JET THAT DOMINATES
THE WX PATTERN FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE SE COAST. MRNG
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES ARND 0.8" ACRS N FL...ARND 0.9" ACRS
CENTRAL FL...AND ARND 1.2" OVER S FL. DEEP W/NWRLY FLOW AT ALL SITES
WILL MAINTAIN THIS STRIATED MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION AS UPSTREAM
H100-H70 AND H85-H50 MEAN RH VALUES SHOW LITTLE VARIANCE OVER THE
ERN GOMEX.

A CONTINENTAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROF...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED DRY/STABLE WX. SOURCE
REGION FOR THE AIRMASS IS WELL BLO THE 40TH PARALLEL...SO DESPITE A
LIGHT NRLY BREEZE...NO SIG COOLING WILL OCCUR. IN FACT...WITH NEAR
FULL SUN AND LIGHT WINDS THRU MIDDAY...AFTN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE L/M70S WITH U70S PSBL E OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...OVERALL
ABOUT 3-5F DEGS ABV CLIMO AVG.

MRNG FCST PACKAGE LOOKS FINE...ANY CHANGES WOULD BE LARGELY
TRANSPARENT. NO UPDATES NECESSARY.

.AVIATION...THRU 22/12Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 22/00Z...N/NE 5-9KTS BCMG E/NE. AFT 22/00Z...N/NE
AOB 5KTS.

VSBYS/WX: THRU 22/06Z...VFR. AFT 22/06Z...PTCHY MVFR/LCL IFR IN
BR/HZ.

CIGS: VFR. THRU 22/00Z...N OF KMLB-KISM BTWN FL060-080.

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRES TROF OVER THE WRN ATLC WILL PUSH E...ALLOWING A SFC
RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY TO NOSE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. LIGHT TO
GENTLE W/NW SFC/BNDRY LYR BREEZE BCMG N/NE THRU LATE AFTN...THEN
CONTG OVERNIGHT. SEAS AOB 2FT. NO SIG CHANGES NECESSARY WITH THE
MRNG UPDATE.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...LASCODY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

1045 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST
OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST SATURDAY...BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK SFC LOW CENTERED JUST OFF TO THE E
OF CAPE HATTERAS NC...WITH FRONTAL BNDRY OVER SRN NC. FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FROM THE WSW. WV SATELLITE REVEALS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ERN KY AND WV...WITH MODELS
SHIFTING THIS FEATURE ENE THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING HRS. MEASURABLE PRECIP
THUS FAR THIS MORNING HAS NOT OCCURRED WITHIN THE CWA...VERIFYING
FAIRLY WELL WITH BOTH THE PREVIOUS 06Z RUN AS WELL AS THE CURRENT
RUN (12Z) OF THE NAM. SKIES HAVE CLOUDED UP OVER THE PAST HR ACRS
MOST OF VA AFTER SOME EARLY AM SUNSHINE...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
FINALLY BREAKING OUT OVER FAR NORTHERN VA INTO SOUTHERN PA. FOR
THIS AFTN...FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES E OF THE MTNS.
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY SHEARED OUT HOWEVER...SO IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE SOUTH AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT SOUTHERN VA/NE
NC WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN CLOUDS. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS...RAMPING THEM UP TO LIKELY OVER THE MD ERN
SHORE AFTER 18Z...TAPERED FAIRLY SHARPLY DOWN TO LOW CHC OVER THE
REMAINING NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE CWA. THROUGH 21Z IS SHOULD BE JUST
SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 F. WITH
SOME LATER AFTN SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE
NC...HIGH TEMPS THERE WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND
40 F ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

DURING ROUGHLY THE 21Z-03Z PERIOD...IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY
REAL CHC FOR SNOW/SLEET THIS WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD...CONFINED
TO THE MD ERN SHORE (TOO WARM AND/OR TOO DRY ELSEWHERE). THIS...AS
BEST FORCING MOVES OVER THIS REGION AS SFC LOW DEEPENS WHILE
TRACKING NE OFF THE SE VA COAST. MODEST CAA KICKS IN NIGHT BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST.
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OVER
MAINLY GRASSY SURFACES IN NRN DORCHESTER/WICOMICO COUNTIES AS SFC
WET BULB TEMPS PER THE 12Z NAM AND RAP DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.
ADDED AN HWO MENTION OF THIS FOR THESE AREAS...GRIDDED FORECAST
HAS 0.5" OR LESS OF SNOW/SLEET. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES FROM SW
TO NE LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S MOST AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUASI- ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BRING CLEARING LATE WED
NIGHT AND THU. OTRW...~1030MB SFC HI PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU-THU NGT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY- PARTLY
CLOUDY THU W/ HI TEMPS MNLY IN THE M/U40S N TO L50S S.

BIG WEATHER MAKER FOR LATE IN THE WEEK ON INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
DEVELOP FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES FROM THE 4
CORNERS REGION THU NGT TO THE GULF COAST FRI. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON FRI THEN
TRACK NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST FRI NGT AND SAT. ATTM...P-TYPE
LOOKS AS IF IT WOULD BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN IF NOT ALL RAIN FOR THE
FA. WILL INCLUDE SOME PSBL MIXED SN ACRS THE NNW LATE FRI NGT AT
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

RAISED POPS ACRS THE FA (TO HI CHC/LIKELY) THROUGHOUT THE FA.

HIGHS FRIDAY ARND 40F ON THE LWR MD ERN SHORE TO L40S I-95
CORRIDOR...AND M/U40S IN SE VA/NE NC. LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE
M30S N TO L40S SE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GIVEN TRACK ON MDLS ATTM...CONCERN BY SAT WILL BE PTNTL DRY SLOT
ARRIVING FM THE SW...RESULTING IN PCPN WINDING DOWN/ENDING BEFORE
ANY AIR COLD ENOUGH FM THE PCPN ENDING AS MIXED SN/RA OR ALL SN
(IN THE AFTN/EVE). WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS SAT MRNG...TAPERING OFF
FM W TO E IN THE AFTN. HI TEMPS FM ARND 40F NW TO THE L50S IN CSTL
NE NC.

DRY CONDS FOR SUN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO HAVE LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO WILL KEEP
POPS SUN NIGHT THRU TUE IN THE 20-30% RANGE AT THIS POINT. ALSO A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PTYPE WITH GFS AND ECMWF HAVING LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THICKNESSES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT SLIGHTLY BLO
NORMAL READINGS ON AVG...WITH HIGHS SUN MSTLY IN THE MID TO UPR
40S...AND UPR 30S TO MID 40S MON AND TUE.

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE TAF SITES DURING
TODAY...AS A COUPLE OF WEAK LO PRES AREAS MOVE ACRS THE MID ATLC
REGION. WENT CLOSER TO THE NAM FCST (GUIDANCE) AND ONLY MENTIONING
-RA IN THE SBY TAF AT THIS TIME. BUT...DO HAVE CIGS LOWERING TO
IFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT RIC DURING THIS AFTN. CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES LATE TNGT...EXCEPT MAYBE SBY
AS THE MAIN LO MOVES AWAY OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND CST.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI AFTN...AS HI
PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN
LATE FRI THRU SAT WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE.

.MARINE...
PER LATEST OBS HAVE RAISED A SCA TODAY FOR SOUTHERN BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND ON SOUTH.

PREV DISCUSSION...
ONE LO PRES AREA WILL MOVE FM SRN OH INTO PA BEFORE DISSIPATING
TODAY INTO TNGT...WHILE A SECOND LO TRACKS ACRS NC THEN NE OFF THE
CST AND OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT
TODAY...BECMG N THIS EVENG...THEN BECMG NW 5 TO 15 KT LATER TNGT
INTO THU MORNG. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FT AND SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT
TODAY. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA THU INTO FRI AFTN.
INTENSIFYING LO PRES WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
CONTINUES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ654-656-
658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
634.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB/MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1032 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
REGION SATURDAY AND MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF WESTERN MD/EASTERN WV PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY SO FAR THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO DC-BALTIMORE METRO AREAS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR RUNS. HIGHEST
TOTALS STILL LOOK TO BE NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE... 2 TO 4 INCHES
/WITH BANDING POTENTIAL/ TAPERING OFF TO AROUND 1 INCH TOWARD I-66.
SOUTH OF HERE...LOWER QPF AND SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN
WILL CUT DOWN ON ACCUMULATIONS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS AS
IS FOR NOW...CONTINUING UNTIL 6 PM. AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR WILL BE
IMPACTED IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENDS AT 6 PM. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AN HOUR OR TWO BEYOND THIS IN PARTS OF MARYLAND NEAR
THE BAY PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...BUT LOW PRESSURE SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PROMOTE AN END TO PRECIPITATION.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL RE-FREEZE. PATCHY DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO SATURATED LOW
LEVELS AND COOLER AIR TRAPPED ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...WET OR
SLUSHY ROADS MAY RE- FREEZE AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
"FAST FLOW IN A WRN RDG/ERN TROF" SORT OF SUMS UP A DECENT PART OF
THE XTND FCST. THE FIRST PART OF THE FCST IS RLVTLY PLACID AS HIGH
PRES SETTLES OVR THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE LM40S...LOWS IN THE M20S
XCPT WARMER IN THE CITIES.

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH RAIN AT CHO/DCA/IAD LATE AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON BUT IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
MAY BRING PRECIP/FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY. SOME CHANNELING WILL DEVELOP WITH
GUSTS INTO THE TEENS...BUT NOT EXPECTING GUSTS TO SCA CRITERIA.

WINDS XPCTD TO BE BLO SCA VALUES THU/FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRES MAY IMPACT THE WATERS SAT...BRINGING
WINTRY PCPN.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ003>006-011-013-014-501>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-
031-053-054-503>506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS/ABW
NEAR TERM...BPP/KS
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...BPP/KS/ABW
MARINE...BPP/KS/ABW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

1031 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

RAISED POPS ACRS THE FA (TO HI CHC/LIKELY) THROUGHOUT THE FA.

HIGHS FRIDAY ARND 40F ON THE LWR MD ERN SHORE TO L40S I-95
CORRIDOR...AND M/U40S IN SE VA/NE NC. LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE
M30S N TO L40S SE.

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE TAF SITES DURING
TODAY...AS A COUPLE OF WEAK LO PRES AREAS MOVE ACRS THE MID ATLC
REGION. WENT CLOSER TO THE NAM FCST (GUIDANCE) AND ONLY MENTIONING
-RA IN THE SBY TAF AT THIS TIME. BUT...DO HAVE CIGS LOWERING TO
IFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT RIC DURING THIS AFTN. CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES LATE TNGT...EXCEPT MAYBE SBY
AS THE MAIN LO MOVES AWAY OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND CST.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI AFTN...AS HI
PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN
LATE FRI THRU SAT WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE.

.MARINE...
PER LATEST OBS HAVE RAISED A SCA TODAY FOR SOUTHERN BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES ON SOUTH.

PREV DISCUSSION...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU THU NGT. ONE LO PRES
AREA WILL MOVE FM SRN OH INTO PA BEFORE DISSIPATING TODAY INTO
TNGT...WHILE A SECOND LO TRACKS ACRS NC THEN NE OFF THE CST AND
OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT TODAY...BECMG
N THIS EVENG...THEN BECMG NW 5 TO 15 KT LATER TNGT INTO THU MORNG.
WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FT AND SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT TODAY. HI PRES
WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA THU INTO FRI AFTN. INTENSIFYING LO
PRES WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
CONTINUES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB/MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG/DAP/BMD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1030 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
REGION SATURDAY AND MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF WESTERN MD/EASTERN WV PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY SO THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO DC-BALTIMORE METRO AREAS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR RUNS. HIGHEST
TOTALS STILL LOOK TO BE NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE... 2 TO 4
INCHES /WITH BANDING POTENTIAL/ TAPERING OFF TO AROUND 1 INCH
TOWARD I-66. SOUTH OF HERE...LOWER QPF AND SNOW MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO RAIN WILL CUT DOWN ON ACCUMULATIONS. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS AS IS FOR NOW...CONTINUING UNTIL 6 PM. AFTERNOON
RUSH HOUR WILL BE IMPACTED IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
MAY BRING PRECIP/FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY. SOME CHANNELING WILL DEVELOP WITH
GUSTS INTO THE TEENS...BUT NOT EXPECTING GUSTS TO SCA CRITERIA.

WINDS XPCTD TO BE BLO SCA VALUES THU/FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRES MAY IMPACT THE WATERS SAT...BRINGING
WINTRY PCPN.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS/ABW
NEAR TERM...BPP/KS
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...BPP/KS/ABW
MARINE...BPP/KS/ABW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1021 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.UPDATE...

THE REGION OF WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS BEEN SLOWLY BUT STEADILY LIFTING
NORTHWARD OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. RADAR AND SATELLITE ALONG
WITH THE LATEST RAP AND 12Z NAM INDICATE THIS IS BEING FORCED
WITHIN A RIBBON OF DEFORMATION JUST NORTH OF A SECONDARY MID
LEVEL VORTICITY MAX NOW ROTATING ACROSS THE SW MI/NRN INDIANA
BORDER. THIS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR APART AS
IT WORKS INTO NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE LARGER MID
LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER TO THE SOUTH. THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE AND
RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE BACK
EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL HALT AS IT ROTATES INTO THE NRN
DETROIT SUBURBS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION WILL THEN CONTRACT BEFORE ENDING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...FOCUSING THE BETTER LIFT BETWEEN THE I 96/696 AND I
69 CORRIDORS. THIS REGION IS LIKELY TO PICK UP AROUND AN
ADDITIONAL INCH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMS UP TO TWO INCHES DO HOWEVER SEEM PROBABLE IN ANY LOCAL
WHERE THE MID LEVEL FORCING HOLDS ON JUST A BIT LONGER /MOST
LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN OAKLAND...MACOMB OR SOUTHERN ST CLAIR
COUNTIES/.

SFC OBS SUGGESTED SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR THE OHIO
STATE LINE THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING AGAIN SOUTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD END ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SUPPORT JUST SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED.

THE GOING FORECAST STILL HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
/ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NORTHERN DETROIT SUBURBS MAY END UP WITH
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO OR SLIGHTLY OVER THREE INCHES/. AN
UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED MAINLY TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS ON TIMING.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 648 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

A BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE
TERMINAL CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER...BUT SHORT
DURATION LIFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOWERS. IFR WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT IN BOTH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON BEFORE BOTH SHOW IMPROVEMENT
TOWARD EVENING. FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TONIGHT...DRY AIR OBSERVED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY BREAK UP CLOUD COVER OVER SE MICHIGAN AS LOW
LEVEL WIND TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH.

FOR DTW... IFR SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A FEW
BURSTS OF LIFT RESTRICTION. TOTAL ACCUMULATION AROUND 2 INCHES
REMAINS ON TRACK BEFORE THE PATTERN WEAKENS TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET TODAY...MEDIUM TONIGHT.

* HIGH FOR PRECIPITATION AS ALL SNOW.

* LOW FOR CEILING BELOW 200 FT AND/OR VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/2SM.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES IS ON TRACK TO SPREAD ANOTHER PATTERN OF SNOW OVER SE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL
SOUTH OF MIDLAND...BAY CITY...AND THE NORTHERN THUMB WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES FROM THE OHIO BORDER UP TO ABOUT THE I-96
CORRIDOR AND THEN TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH FROM THERE. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...EXPECT A PEAK IN RATES FROM ABOUT MID MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION LINGERING LONGER TOWARD
EVENING. THE LONGER DURATION AND POTENTIAL FOR A MORE FOCUSED BURST
SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW MORE 2 INCH TOTALS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH OF THE OHIO BORDER SHORTLY AFTER PRESS TIME
AS THE FIRST PHASE OF FORCING GETS UNDERWAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THE LEADING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE WILL HELP GET ISENTROPIC LIFT
STARTED OVER SE MICHIGAN AS THE MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE MOVES
NORTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS OF THETA-E INDICATE
THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR WITH MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
FAVORABLY LOW STABILITY THAT WILL SUPPORT A RAPID INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE THETA-E
RIDGE AROUND 700 MB. THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER
ABOUT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING BEFORE BEING
DRAWN BACK WESTWARD INTO THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS
WILL SET UP A RESPECTABLY ORGANIZED TROWAL AXIS WITHIN WHICH A
HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE
MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION SHEARS THROUGH INDIANA AND OHIO. THE
STRONGEST RESPONSE SHOULD OCCUR ON THE SOUTH FLANK OF THE TROWAL
WHERE THE STABILITY PROFILE WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE AND DEFORMATION
STRONGEST...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96 CORRIDOR AS THE BEST
ESTIMATE FOR NOW. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THE STRONGEST
FORCING WILL BE BRIEF AS THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL
CARRY FAVORABLE SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW EASTWARD AND CAUSE THE TROWAL
TO WEAKEN OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SNOW WILL
NOT END COMPLETELY BUT WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY TOWARD EVENING.
CONSIDERING THE THERMAL PROFILE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY...A 15 TO 1 RATIO IS USED AGAIN FOR PEAK ACCUMULATION
TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY LESS THAN MODEL 12 HR
QPF OF 0.15 INCHES TO FACTOR IN THE UNCERTAINTY ON DURATION.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING BUT FORCING WILL BECOME MUCH MORE NEBULOUS WITHIN THE
REMNANT LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. NEUTRAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL
BE COUPLED WITH WEAK BUT NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 850 TO
700 MB LAYER OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPS SETTLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...

SW-NE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TUCKED UNDERNEATH...NO BIG CONCERNS FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES WITH FAIRLY
COLD AIRMASS (925 MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS/850
MB TEMPS AROUND -10 C). THIS COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS/SURFACE RIDGE
WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH/RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY...BUT STILL STRUGGLING TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER...AND
EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL PREDOMINATELY INTO THE TEENS...WITH LOWER
20S OVER THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF DETROIT AND TOWARD TRI-CITIES
REGION...WHERE CONVERGENT SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO HELP FACILITATE
DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION SEEN AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...RISING TOWARD ZERO...BECOMING
MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR FRIDAY...AS EURO/NAM/GFS ALL SHOWING A GOOD
DEAL OF MOISTURE UNDERNEATH (950-925 MB)...AND WILL BE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...BUT STILL THINK THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE
ENOUGH TO WARM TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AS SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE SLIDING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE/MARGINAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE OFFSET A BIT BY DIURNAL IMPACT...WITH 925
MB TEMPS (-2.5 TO - 3 C) SUGGESTING MID TO UPPER 30S IS OBTAINABLE.

MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...A BRIEF UPTICK IN NORTHWEST WINDS
LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF LAKE HURON THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. HOWEVER...GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH HIGHER AS WARMER AIR STREAMS IN...LEADING TO STABLE LOW LEVEL
PROFILES BY FRIDAY EVENING.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

643 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN NW MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF CLIPPERS INTO THE REGION. ONLY
LIGHT IF ANY LES IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AS THE
COLDEST AIR REMAINS OVER NE CANADA.

THU INTO THU NIGHT...AS THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH WITH TEMPS TO
AROUND -14C DEPARTS...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE NE CWA DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER...WAA AND WINDS BACKING TO SW
WILL PUSH ANY REMAINING LES OFFSHORE. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WAA WILL
INCREASE WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A FCST 996 MB LOW MOVING INTO
NW ONTARIO AND 1030 MB RIDGE THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT
STEADY OR SLOWLY RIDING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THE WAA MAY BRING SOME PCPN INTO UPPER MI BUT
ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH QPF MAINLY AT OR BELOW 0.05
INCH(SNOW OF A HALF INCH OR LESS. MODELS 290K-295K FCST SUGGESTS
THAT THE BEST LIFT AND SATURATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE ERN CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH A PROMINENT DRY 900-750 MB
LAYER...ONLY LOWER END 20-30 POPS WERE INCLUDED. COLDER AIR WILL
ONLY GRADUALLY MOVE IN FRI NIGHT WITH NW WINDS BEHIND A SFC TROUGH
AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND -6C BY 12Z/SAT. SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.

SAT...ONLY MARGINALLY COLD AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C WILL
MOVE IN AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES. DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL
WINDS THAT SLOWLY BECOME ACYC AND NRLY WILL ALSO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
LES ACCUMULATIONS CONSISTENT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THAT THE HEAVIER PCPN WITH THE NEXT STRONGER CLIPPER WILL REMAIN
WEST AND SOUTH OF UPPER MI WITH THE BEST SNOW CHANCE IF ANY INTO WRN
UPPER MI. CONFIDENCE WITH THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THE NEXT SHRTWV
BY TUE IS MUCH LOWER GIVEN LARGE MODEL SPREAD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

LOW END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE U.P.
TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BRING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST. BASED
OFF UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA...CONTINUED TO SHOW
IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH THE INITIAL SNOWFALL. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF INCREASING VISIBILITIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN AND WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST...SHOULD SEE THE LAKE EFFECT DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

AT KSAW...MINE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AND
IMPACTED THE SITE FOR A COUPLE HOURS. NOW THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...THAT BAND OF
SNOW HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE SITE. THUS...WOULD JUST EXPECT THE LOW
END MVFR CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...DID SHOW A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS...BUT
EXPECT THAT TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS BACK TO A DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

530 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

653 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

DID ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING FOR JAMESTOWN AND POINTS SOUTH. SATELLITE
TRENDS THROUGH 1230 UTC SUPPORT A POTENTIAL VOID OF ICE
CRYSTALS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH POTENTIALLY 15
UTC GIVEN THE 11 UTC RAP SOUNDINGS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER IOWA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A SECONDARY LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
IN THE JAMES VALLEY NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW NORTHWARD TO BETWEEN
BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN AND BETWEEN MINOT/RUGBY. EAST OF THIS INVERTED
TROUGH WINDS WERE NORTHEAST AND AREAS OF LIGHT FOG PERSISTED THROUGH
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. WEST OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH WINDS WERE FROM
THE NORTHWEST...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S - INDICATIVE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE PACIFIC HIGH THAT
EXTENDED OVER MONTANA/IDAHO/WYOMING. A POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS
WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND COLDER AIR WAS FILTERING
INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED INTO THE
TEENS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT ON THE SATELLITE WATER
VAPOR LOOP - MAINLY CENTERED OVER LAKE SAKAKAWEA. LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUED MOVING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW DECREASING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH TODAY. BY NOON THE SNOW SHOULD END IN THE NORTH...WITH SNOW
ENDING IN THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
AFTER 4 AM CST SHOULD BE LIGHT - UP TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN
INCH.

THE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE MILD PACIFIC
HIGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO NUDGE EASTWARD. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS (NEAR THE POLAR
HIGH) TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES TOWARDS HUDSON BAY WILL GENERATE A RATHER TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...INDUCING STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS SHOULD BE
REACHED DURING THE EVENING...THEN STEADY OR RISING TEMPERATURES LATE
TONIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE...SETTING UP A MILD DAY FOR
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE ONLY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE PERIOD IS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 00 UTC
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES AGREEMENT FROM EARLIER ITERATIONS OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION. GIVEN HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 40S WEST...AND 30S CENTRAL ON SATURDAY...MOSTLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX CENTRAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE MORNING HOURS. LIFR
POSSIBLE AT KJMS IN FOG AND PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR/VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

932 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH MAY
BRING A WINTRY MIX TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY
FRIDAY EVENING.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A S/WV OVER NRN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR AS IT MOVES
EAST/SOUTHEAST TO OUR REGION BY THIS EVENING. PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD ACRS THE NRN ZONES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY...PERHAPS EVEN MOSTLY SUNNY...FOR A PERIOD BEFORE LOW
CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGHS RES MODELS
SUGGEST PCPN GENERATED FROM THE S/WV WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BY THE RAP MODEL. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE FAR NORTH. POINTS FARTHER
SOUTH...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW
SHOWER MIX JUST NORTH OF I-70...WITH RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-70. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER OVER THE SOUTH WITH
MORE SUNSHINE. HAVE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S FAR
NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERED LIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AS AMPLE LL
MOISTURE COULD CREATE SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. LINGERED CLOUDS IN NW FLOW AND CAA. BEFORE THE LOWER
LAYERS DRY OUT AND SOME CLEARING ON LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY.

WHILE FCST AREA REMAINS UNDER QUIET RIDGING AND CAA...A DEEPENING
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES THE MID OHIO VALLEY BY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EACH MODEL RUN OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE NAM ARE QUICKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ONSET. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
THE FAR SE FCST AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...WORTH A MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS...AND MAY YIELD ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON A SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME. WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION
HOWEVER KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANGE CATEGORY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AFTER THIS TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AND WITH
IT...THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL
OHIO TAF SITES. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY...MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY WORKING
THEIR WAY EASTWARD OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THEM TO
REACH KCMH/KLCK WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT KCVG/KLUK.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORT WAVE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR
CIGS TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

516 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW WAS
STARTING TO WORK SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING TO SEE
THE LAST OF THE HEAVIER SNOW MOVE PAST BOTH TAF SITES BEFORE 15Z
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW HANGING ON UNTIL LATE MORNING. WILL
START BOTH TAF SITES WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND THEN TAKE THE
VISIBILITY UP TO MVFR AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES AND EVENTUALLY TO VFR
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SNOW ENDING AND THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA...THE FLOW STILL
REMAINS VERY WEAK WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR GETTING RID OF THE
CLOUDS ANYTIME SOON. WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT KRST WITH KLSE ON THE EDGE OF IFR TO MVFR.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

1045 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL.

SKIES ARE SLOWLY CLEARING WITH SOME VIRGA SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF PHOENIX AREA TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF KPHX AND CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ANYTHING WILL MATERIALIZE IN PHOENIX SO LEFT OFF MENTION OF
VCSH. WINDS WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE
SWITCHING TO AN EASTERLY PUSH.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH.

FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. LOOKING FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH A
FEW PERIODS THAT MAY MEET CRITERIA...WITH CONDITIONS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT BUT STILL AROUND 12 TO 15 KTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/AJ
AVIATION...DEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1253 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE APPROACHING PRECIPITATION WAS UPON US AT
MIDDAY. HOWEVER, RELATIVELY DRY AIR WAS IN PLACE IN OUR NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. DEW POINT READING WERE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

THE FIRST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN FALLING IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN IT WILL SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE MOISTURE OVERCOMES THE DRY AIR.

THE LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.

SUNDAY: A TEMPORARY BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN. TEMPERATURES COULD BE COOLER DUE TO SNOW COVER. WENT
COOLER THAN THE ENSEMBLE/ MEX GUIDANCE.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY FALL TO MVFR THEN IFR
AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE ONSET
BEFORE INCREASING IN INTENSITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOULD FALL FAST ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE ON THE
RUNWAYS.

TONIGHT...SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BUT WILL START TO
END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 02-05Z AT THE TERMINALS.
BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RISE TO MVFR LEVELS WITH
VISIBILITIES CONTINUING TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE STARTING LIFT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, REMAINING LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, DECREASING CLOUDS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN
SNOW AND RAIN. MORE RAIN SOUTHEAST OF PHL AND SNOW NORTHWEST OF
PHL. NORTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY: VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS LATE WITH
SNOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS INCREASING
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS AND GUSTS BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS FROM THE EAST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: SEAS AND WIND GUSTS DECREASING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ060-070-071-101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ016>024-027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ001-002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/MEOLA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1224 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015

THE FIRST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN FALLING IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN IT WILL SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE MOISTURE OVERCOMES THE DRY AIR.

THE LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.

SUNDAY: A TEMPORARY BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN. TEMPERATURES COULD BE COOLER DUE TO SNOW COVER. WENT
COOLER THAN THE ENSEMBLE/ MEX GUIDANCE.

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON, QUICKLY BECOMING IFR WITH THE ONSET OF SNOW
ESTIMATED BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z FOR MOST TERMINALS. GENERAL
DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HEAVY ENOUGH SNOW
FOR ACCUMS ON TARMAC. THERE MAY BE SOME MIXED PCPN AT THE START AT
KMIV AND KACY. CIGS SHOULD ALSO LOWER TO IFR. NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR CIGS AS SNOW TAPERS
OFF AND ENDS. VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR ALL TERMINALS BY LATE EVENING.
NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, DECREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN
SNOW AND RAIN. MORE RAIN SOUTHEAST OF PHL AND SNOW NORTHWEST OF
PHL. NORTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY: VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS LATE WITH
SNOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS INCREASING
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS AND GUSTS BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS FROM THE EAST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: SEAS AND WIND GUSTS DECREASING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

230 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. MUCH OF THE CONUS SITS UNDER A
VERY BROAD AND UNAMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH. JUST A COUPLE SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THIS PARENT TROUGH. ONE PIECE OF ENERGY IS
ROTATING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...WHILE ANOTHER IS ROTATING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IT
WILL BE THIS ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWEST THAT EVENTUALLY EJECTS
EASTWARD TO GIVE US OUR NEXT SHOT AT SOME RAIN LATER FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL AND DRY FLOW ALOFT...
THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO FOCUS FOR SYNOPTIC LIFT ANYWHERE NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...OUR FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THE REST OF
TODAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE JUST ABOUT NOW AT THE DAILY HIGH RANGING FROM THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RECENTLY COME DOWN A FEW DEGREES NEAR THE COAST AS
WE HAVE SEEN A WEAK SEA-BREEZE DEVELOP AND TURN WINDS ONSHORE OFF
THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST PROVIDING A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE PENINSULA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE NATURE COAST...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S
TRAVELING FURTHER SOUTH. WHERE THE RIDGE IS STRONGEST OVER THE
NATURE COAST...A FEW SPOTS MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT AND
RADIATE DOWN BRIEFLY INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S. THESE COOLER
LOCATIONS WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE...BUT THOSE THAT DO DECOUPLE MAY
ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF FOG TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
INITIALLY ALOFT A LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE RELAXED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS FROM
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPILLS
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTS. A WEAK TROUGH OFF
THE TX COAST HAS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING EAST ACROSS THE
GULF TO FL.

FRI-SAT: THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE SURFACE
TROUGH DEEPENS INTO A LOW AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND GA...TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE BOUNDARY
THAT WAS ACROSS THE GULF AND FL LIFTS NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FORM THE TROUGH/LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE
GULF THEN FL. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA INTO
NORTH FL DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWERS ALONG
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES...RIGHT ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
THEN THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST WITH LIKELY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
CURRENTLY IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY STRONG STORMS. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES SOUTHWEST FL IN
THE MORNING AND EXITS BY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CATEGORY CHANCE SHOWERS IN IT/S WAKE. TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE
NORMAL FRI BEGIN TO TUMBLE SAT.

SUN-MON: THE TROUGH ROTATES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...MAINTAINING TROUGHINESS ACROSS EASTERN AND PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A ROBUST SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE FEATURE DOMINATES
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND MUCH OF FL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE GULF TOWARD FL. TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WARMING SLIGHTLY FOR MON.

TUE-WED: THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH IT/S SURFACE
REFLECTION ROTATES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A FRONTAL
TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...TREKKING THROUGH THE
EAST GULF AND ACROSS FL TUE. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THAT STAY WELL TO THE NORTH
WILL PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH A DRY FORECAST. RIDGING
ALOFT MOVES FROM THE WEST TO THE CENTRAL CONUS AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES SETTLES IN
OVER THE GULF AND FL. TEMPERATURES...STILL BELOW NORMAL...COOL DOWN
TUE THROUGH WED. THE FAR NORTH COULD SEE LOWS APPROACH FREEZING WED
MORNING.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND AREAS WITH KLAL AND KPGD POSSIBLY
SEEING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS IN THE FEW HOURS BEFORE
DAWN...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ANY
PATCHY FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF. AS THIS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TO NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS OFFSHORE.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GULF FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY AND SEASONABLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATER FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF TAMPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG IT. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH
COOL AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 59 77 64 75 / 0 0 10 40
FMY 61 80 65 80 / 0 10 10 10
GIF 57 77 62 78 / 0 0 10 40
SRQ 58 78 65 77 / 0 10 10 30
BKV 50 77 62 76 / 0 0 10 50
SPG 61 76 65 75 / 0 0 10 40

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
MARINE...FLEMING
LONG TERM...RUDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

225 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015

RAISED POPS ACRS THE FA (TO HI CHC/LIKELY) THROUGHOUT THE FA.

HIGHS FRIDAY ARND 40F ON THE LWR MD ERN SHORE TO L40S I-95
CORRIDOR...AND M/U40S IN SE VA/NE NC. LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE
M30S N TO L40S SE.

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTN AS A COUPLE OF WEAK LO PRES AREAS MOVE ACRS THE MID ATLC
REGION. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WITH IFR VIS AT SBY
DUE TO -RA/-SN. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES LATE
TNGT...EXCEPT SBY AS THE MAIN LO MOVES AWAY OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND CST.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI AFTN...AS HI
PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN
LATE FRI THRU SAT WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE.

.MARINE...
PER LATEST OBS HAVE RAISED A SCA TODAY FOR SOUTHERN BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND ON SOUTH.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB/MAS
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...TMG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

104 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
REGION SATURDAY AND MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE INCLUDED PRINCE WILLIAM...MANASSAS AND MANASSAS PARK IN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS TOTALS THERE ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND SNOW WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR. HAVE INCREASED SOME TOTALS AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND/BALTIMORE AREA
WHERE BANDING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND LEAD TO 2
TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

PREV...

SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF WESTERN MD/EASTERN WV PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY SO FAR THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO DC-BALTIMORE METRO AREAS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR RUNS. HIGHEST
TOTALS STILL LOOK TO BE NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE... 2 TO 4 INCHES
/WITH BANDING POTENTIAL/ TAPERING OFF TO AROUND 1 INCH TOWARD I-66.
SOUTH OF HERE...LOWER QPF AND SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN
WILL CUT DOWN ON ACCUMULATIONS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS AS
IS FOR NOW...CONTINUING UNTIL 6 PM. AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR WILL BE
IMPACTED IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH RAIN AT CHO/DCA/IAD LATE AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON BUT IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
MAY BRING PRECIP/FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY. SOME CHANNELING WILL DEVELOP WITH
GUSTS INTO THE TEENS...BUT NOT EXPECTING GUSTS TO SCA CRITERIA.

WINDS XPCTD TO BE BLO SCA VALUES THU/FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRES MAY IMPACT THE WATERS SAT...BRINGING
WINTRY PCPN.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ003>006-011-013-014-501>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-
031-052>054-503>506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS/ABW
NEAR TERM...BPP/KS
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...BPP/KS/ABW
MARINE...BPP/KS/ABW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1211 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.AVIATION...

A SLOW WEAKENING IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO IT COMING TO AN END THIS EVENING.
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT FNT
AND PTK. MBS WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SNOW AND
SHOULD ACTUALLY SEE IT COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT FNT AND MBS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE QUITE A BIT OF
VARIABILITY IN CIGS AND VSBY WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF HIGHER
INTENSITY SNOWFALL PERSISTING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...THE LOWER VISIBILITIES IMPACTING METRO DETROIT ARE MORE
THE RESULT OF FOG THAN INTENSE SNOWFALL. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD JUST
BE A DUSTING. ALTHOUGH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD
INTO TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
N-NE TONIGHT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST IN
HOLDING CIGS ON THE LOW END VFR.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY...MEDIUM TONIGHT.

* HIGH FOR PRECIPITATION AS ALL SNOW.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1021 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

LONG TERM...

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1210 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015

LOW END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS EARLY AT SAW...WHICH HAS
BEEN ABLE TO PUSH TO VFR AS LOWER CLOUDS ERODED AWAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CEILINGS/VIS WITH -SHSN WILL BE AT IWD AND
CMX WITH AND BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING ACROSS UPPER MI
TODAY. BORDERLINE IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO
THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY AT IWD AND CMX AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A MORE W TURN OF THE NEAR SFC WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AT IWD AROUND DAYBREAK...SHIFTING THE LOWER CEILINGS N
OF THE AIRPORT AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO WORK IN. THE MORE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AT SAW SHOULD KEEP MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015

A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS E LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY ERODE AS HIGH OVER
THE N PLAINS SINKS TO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW
ACROSS N MANITOBA LATE THURSDAY WILL SWING ACROSS N ONTARIO AND INTO
QUEBEC FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. SW GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 40KTS ARE EXPECTED OVER W AND N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN
THE EXITING RIDGE AND NEARING TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
WARM...SO ALTHROUGH FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE...THERE WILL
ONLY BE SMALL AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30KTS FOR SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER N CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT PUSH
ACROSS ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO
QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW ACROSS N SASKATCHEWAN
SATURDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO SINK ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN
SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

354 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH A RAP H5 ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN. THE RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST IS
AMPLIFYING...WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF NOAM EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. WITHIN THIS THROUGH...THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE IS THE
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS REGION...BUT THIS WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF US. CLOSER TO HOME THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW IN
YESTERDAY IS NOW OFF OVER SRN MICHIGAN. THE PV WITH THIS WAVE
EXTENDS BACK TO THE WEST INTO A TROUGH WITH ITS BASE IN WYOMING.
WITHIN THIS...YOU WILL FIND YET ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH SODAK. AS WE GO THROUGH TONIGHT THIS BAGGY
THROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH OF US...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKING ITS
PLACE FOR THURSDAY. UNTIL THIS GENERAL TROUGHINESS CLEARS THE
AREA...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUDS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...THOUGH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE BIG QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS WHEN EXACTLY WILL THESE
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. ON THE HEELS OF THE UPPER WAVE MOVING OUT WILL A
SFC RIDGE MOVING IN. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WITH THIS WILL HELP
CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. BELIEVE THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE TOO MOIST
IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO FOLLOWED MORE OF A GFS IDEA WITH SKIES
CLEARING FROM N TO S TONIGHT....THOUGH WENT A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
NAM GIVEN THE HRRRS DEPICTION OF HOW THE STRATUS SHIELD WILL CLEAR
OUT THIS EVENING. WE WILL SOME CLEAR SKIES ON THURSDAY BEFORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MN DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST AS THEY WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. FOR PLACES THAT KEEP THE
CLOUDS...LOWS WILL STAY IN THE 20S. YOU LOSE YOUR CLOUDS...WELL WITH
LIGHT WINDS TEMP DROPS WILL BE OFF TO THE RACES...LIKELY SETTLING IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS IF ENOUGH TIME WITH CLEAR SKIES CAN HAPPEN. THIS
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY FOR CENTRAL MN. FOR THURSDAY...SW WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL QUICKLY PUT AN END TO THE WEAK
CAA WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 30S LIKELY
OUT IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY...WITH WARMER TEMPS STILL TO COME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT ESSENTIALLY ALL PRECIP
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
OUR AREA IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIP WILL BE PRODUCED ALONG THE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT IS SET TO
DROP SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
SQUEEZING OUT LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN WARM...SO ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND RAIN.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG RANGE WILL CONSIST OF AN UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CANADA THIS WEEKEND...BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS STRONGER AND THE
SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN STATES. THE
LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD
PUT WESTERN WI AND EXTREME EASTERN MN UNDER THE HEAVIEST
POTENTIAL...WHICH REMAINS AT ABOUT 0.20-0.30" OF LIQUID QPF. IN
THIS AREA...THERMAL PROFILES ARE INDICATIVE OF ALL SNOW HERE SO A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 3.5-4 DAYS AWAY SO MUCH CAN
CHANGE. ESPECIALLY BECAUSE THERE IS DECENT POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
NOR`EASTER TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
KEY PART IN THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM FEATURES SO SHIFTS IN OUR
CLIPPER ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BASICALLY HOLD
FIRM AND THE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT POSSIBLE
FOR OUR AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM
HOWEVER...AS THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA
WITH THE MAIN PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

MAIN ISSUE THIS TAF PERIOD WAS WHEN TO BRING THROUGH CLEARING
TONIGHT/THU MORNING. BELIEVE THE NAM IS WAY TO OVERDONE ON LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BELIEVE AS THE SFC RIDGE WORKS THROUGH...IT
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH IT. FOR TIMING...THE HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT THE GFSLAMP IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS CLEARING...SO
WENT SLOWER WITH CIG IMPROVEMENTS THAN WHAT THE LAMP HAS. BASED
ON OBS UPSTREAM...CONDS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE AS SITES GET INTO
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS...SO TRENDED TAFS BACK TO IFR/LOW END
MVFR BEFORE CLEARING THEM OUT. ALTHOUGH NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...EAU WILL SEE -SN CONTINUE FOR NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW IN WC MN MAY BRUSH RWF THIS
AFTERNOON.

KMSP...WE WILL BE MAINTAINING THE STRATUS...LIKELY THROUGH THE
WHOLE NIGHT. STILL SEE NO REASON WHY CIGS WILL NOT IMPROVE TO
ABOVE 017 THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE LARGE BANK OF IFR CONDS ACROSS
NRN MN PUSHED ME TO BRINGING CIGS BACK UNDER 017 TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS...BUT COULD SEE MSP DEALING WITH IFR CIGS
AGAIN THU MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO CLEAR OUT BY 15Z AT THE
LATEST...AND ONCE IT DOES ITS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SW WINDS
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR CIGS IN AFTN. WIND SW AT 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC IFR/MVFR -SN LATE. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...IFR/MVFR. CHC MORNING -SN. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1201 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES
CLEAR OUT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS IDENTIFIED TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED VORTICITY. THE FIRST WAS
CENTERED OVER THE MN/WI/IA BORDER...AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
LIGHT SNOW FROM YESTERDAY. THE SECOND IS AN OPEN AVE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...AND SHOULD ALLOW A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN PARTICULAR THE MINNESOTA
RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS AREA OF VORTICITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT
GETS STRUNG OUT BY THE SPEEDMAX TO THE SOUTH...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BREAK OVERHEAD.

500MB HEIGHT RISES WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING A FINITE
END TO THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT
CONSIDERABLY...AND DEPENDING ON THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING/AMOUNT OF CLEARING YIELDS LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW TEMPERATURES...AS COULD SEE TEMPS DROP SEVERAL
DEGREES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEFORE SUNRISE UNDER CLEAR...CALM
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP
FROM UPSTREAM SUBSIDENCE/CHINOOK WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL EVENT DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGING NOSING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO A PARADE OF WEAK
RIDGE-TOPPING SHORTWAVES DIVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING
THE PERIOD.

ONE SUCH WAVE SCRAPES THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE AND FORCING SOURCES ARE LIMITED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A
20 POP. THE ONE UNFORTUNATE REALITY IS THAT THE MILD AIR IN PLACE
WILL MEAN THE PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SLEET.

A MUCH STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO CLIP THE REGION ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG PV ADVECTION...700-600MB FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE. A
MODERATE BAND OF SNOWFALL STILL LOOKS TO BLOSSOM OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WHILE THE AMPLITUDE/SPATIAL
DETAILS ARE NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN AT THIS POINT...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE A SWATH OF 0.20 TO 0.30 QPF IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA...WHICH
WOULD TRANSLATE TO 2 TO 4 INCHES.

THE NEXT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TOP THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND DROP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT PRIMARILY LOOKS TO CLIP THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE AREA...SO HAVE RESTRICTED THE 20 POPS TO WEST
CENTRAL WI.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD PRIMARILY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS...AND THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S
FOR LOWS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR CIGS IN AFTN. WIND SW AT 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC IFR/MVFR -SN LATE. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...IFR/MVFR. CHC MORNING -SN. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

104 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

CLEARING HOLE DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH CENTERED OVER GRAND FORKS
ATTM. WHILE CLOUDS DROPPING BACK SOUTH INTO FAR NE ND FROM
MANITOBA. ARE SEEING A FEW BREAKS THOUGH FARTHER SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTH OF JAMESTOWN AS WELL. HRRR AND OTHER MODELS INSIST ON DRYING
OUT THAT 925-850 MB LAYER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WE SHALL SEE.
TEMPS APPEAR OK.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE CHALLENGE FOR TODAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL
CONTINUE. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...AND THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN VERY
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS. OUTSIDE THE OFFICE HERE IN GFK IT SEEMS TO BE
MOSTLY VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT LOOKING AT MODEL
SOUNDINGS THAT ARE QUICKLY SATURATED AND SOME OBS AT LANGDON AND
CAVALIER SHOWING SNOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES. THE RAP
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BEST QPF TO THE WEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
CWA...BUT HAS A FEW BLIPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. THINK THAT THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTH...BUT
SOME PATCHY FOG...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
LINGER IN THE NORTH FOR A LITTLE WHILE THIS MORNING.

WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING DOWN...THERE HAS BEEN SOME FAIRLY STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPS IN THE 20S...BUT THINK THAT SOME COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE HIGH WILL BE A DIRTY ONE...WITH QUITE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEN PRETTY FAR UP INTO MANITOBA. THINK THAT THE CLOUDS
WILL STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION...MANY SPOTS HAVE ALREADY SEEN THEIR HIGH FOR THE
DAY.

NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...ALLOWING
WINDS TO INCREASE AND SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
WITH WINDS PICKING UP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNING THINK THE
LOW WILL BE FAIRLY EARLY AS WE BOTTOM OUT IN THE EVENING AND THEN
TEMPS START TO RISE LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE CWA WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK IN THE TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD AND BACK UP INTO THE 20S
AND LOW 30S...BUT WITH THE WINDS BECOMING BREEZY IT MAY NOT FEEL
AS NICE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF/GEM HAS SEVERAL TENTHS OF
QPF AND THE NAM IS COMPLETELY DRY...WITH THE GFS IN BETWEEN. GIVEN
RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE WILL LEAN A BIT CLOSER TO THE DRY SIDE
AND JUST HAVE SOME VERY LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION UP TO THEN WILL CREATE A FAIRLY STRONG WARM
LAYER ALOFT...WITH MORE QUESTION IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR ACTUAL PRECIP AND NOT JUST FZDZ. FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FZRA/SLEET AND WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED. TEMPS WILL
BE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE READINGS MAKING A RUN FOR THE 35
TO 40 RANGE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS
OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WENT A BIT COLDER AND MAY HAVE TO DROP MORE DEPENDING ON
HOW STRONG THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS AND IF WE GET ANY CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT YET FOR THE DURATION. STILL LOOKS LIKE A SYSTEM SPREADING
IN FOR SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH-NW. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE MILD
SO DETERMINING PCPN TYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH TO
THE EAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT THE ISSUES WITH PCPN TYPE WILL
REMAIN. FOR NOW MENTIONED RAIN OR SNOW IN AREAS THAT APPEAR TO BE
QUESTIONABLE AND WILL TRY TO RESOLVE THESE BETTER CLOSER TO THE
EVENT. MODELS SHOW A WEAKER TRAILING LOW SUNDAY NIGHT THAT MAINLY
AFFECTS THE NORTHEAST FA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK
ON MON BEFORE ANOTHER LOW DROPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.
THIS SYSTEM AGAIN LOOKS TO MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. OVERALL TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT AS A RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTH. A HOLE OVER THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING A COUPLE HOUR BREAK IN SKY COVER TO GFK AND
MAY SINK AS FAR SOUTH AS FAR...BUT WILL KEEP MVFR FOR FAR AT THIS
TIME (NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD).
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST BY MORNING AND THE MVFR DECK
SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE TONIGHT...EXPECTING VFR CONDS BY 03Z TO 06Z
TIMEFRAME.
&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...SPEICHER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1236 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

THIS UPDATE HAVE KEPT THE FLURRY WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND
DELAYED THE EXIT OF FLURRIES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ALSO
DROPPED FOG FROM THE FORECAST AS RECENT OBSERVATIONS NO LONGER
SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

THIS UPDATE HAVE OPTED TO DROP ALL POPS AND JUST GO WITH
CATEGORICAL SNOW FLURRIES. RADAR INDICATES POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
BACK EDGE ABOUT FROM GARRISON TO HARVEY. THERE IS ANOTHER BATCH OF
-SN IN EASTERN MONTANA...PUSHING TOWARD THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.
SOME FOG IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERSISTS AND THE RISK OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE LITTLE TO NO ICE IN THE
CLOUDS ABOVE THAT AREA...FORCING THE RISK THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FAR NORTHEAST...ROLLA AREA...BASED ON
THE NWS GRAND FORKS LEAD THERE. THEY LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR TODAY UP AGAINST THAT AREA AND IT IS A REASONABLE
EXPECTATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTH IN LIGHT SNOW. LIFR POSSIBLE AT KJMS IN BR AND AREAS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. ACROSS THE NORTH...GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH PATCHES
OF LOWER CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH VERY HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

IMPROVING SLOWLY EVERYWHERE AFTER 22/03Z.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1043 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTH IN -SN. LIFR POSSIBLE AT KJMS IN BR AND AREAS OF -ZL.
ACROSS THE NORTH...GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH PATCHES OF LOWER
CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH VERY HIGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

IMPROVING SLOWLY EVERYWHERE AFTER 22/03Z.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

105 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHEAR AS IT MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. AT
THE SAME TYPE...IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL TRY TO LIFT TO VFR FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW. ONCE THE LOW GOES
BY...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A RETURN TO
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SOME
MVFR VSBYS IN MIST MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER THE BUILDING
RIDGE AND WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH VISIBILITIES RETURNING TO VFR DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT IN DETERMINING WHETHER CEILINGS
WILL ERODE GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OR REMAINING TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HICKMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

254 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS PACKAGE LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST ONE. RAIN HAS ALREADY
STARTED NEAR COLEMAN AND THE PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH/CENTRAL TX. WE EXPECT THE RAIN TO START
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND IN EASTERN ZONES BY
EARLY MORNING. CURRENT STORM TOTAL QPF RUNS FROM ABOUT AN INCH IN
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO OVER TWO INCHES IN SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.

WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING
IN NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AND ONLY GRASSY SURFACES ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE UP
TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DURING THE
DAY TO AROUND 40 IN THOSE AREAS...AND A CHANGE BACK TO RAIN BY
AFTERNOON SHOULD MELT/WASH AWAY ANY SNOW THAT REMAINS FROM THE
MORNING.

ONE FACTOR THAT MAY IMPACT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS IF BANDING
PRECIPITATION SETS UP. THESE BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP TEND TO COOL
THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.
GUIDANCE IS NOT GOOD AT PREDICTING EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN THESE
MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL EXIST UNTIL THE EVENT GETS CLOSER...AND
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS ARE A BIG HELP. CURRENTLY
THE HRRR RUNS THROUGH 09Z THURSDAY...AND IT IS NOT SHOWING ANY
STRONG BANDS YET.

THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN BECOME GENERALLY LIGHTER WITH LESS AREAL
COVERAGE BY THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED. ONCE AGAIN...FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...PRECIP THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL LIKELY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ONCE AGAIN. WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OTHER THAN A POSSIBLE TENTH OF AN
INCH OR SO ON GRASSY SURFACES IN WESTERN THROUGH NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

THE METROPLEX MAY SEE SNOW FLAKES MIXED WITH RAIN...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 30S OR ABOVE AND THERE
SHOULD BE NO ACCUMULATIONS. AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
LAMPASAS TO ATHENS WILL LIKELY SEE NO SNOW AT ALL. RAIN WILL
LIKELY END EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY...AND AS SKIES CLEAR OUT FRIDAY
NIGHT...SATURDAY MORNING LOWS WILL HOVER AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. A WARM UP BEGINS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. 84

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1146 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...LOWERING INTO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VISY OVERNIGHT AS RAIN
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

A LOW CLOUD DECK IN THE CENTRAL TEXAS AREA IS RESULTING IN MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KACT WHERE CIGS ARE BETWEEN 015-017 KFT. WHILE THERE
MAY BE INTERMITTENT BREAKS...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL AT KACT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IN THE METROPLEX...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS INTO
MVFR BY LATE THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. SOME
RAIN MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE RAIN IS MORE LIKELY TO
BEGIN THIS EVENING...INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT WITH VISBYS LOWER
INTO MVFR. THE RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH LIFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE CURRENT TAF KEEPS CIGS IN IFR CATEGORY BUT
FUTURE ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO LOWER INTO LIFR CATEGORY AS EARLY AS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 12 KTS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.
WIND SPEEDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY WILL PREVAIL 20-25
KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THESE SPEEDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND ISSUES ON N-S
RUNWAYS BUT MAY CAUSE SOME CONCERNS ON MORE NW-SE RUNWAYS. THE WET
RUNWAYS WILL LIKELY ALSO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL CONCERNS IN
ADDITION TO THE STRONGER WINDS.

THE PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS ALL
LIQUID RAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SNOW
FLAKES COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN IN THE METROPLEX ON THURSDAY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS ARE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING...NO ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.

82/JLD

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 42 42 35 48 33 / 100 100 40 30 5
WACO, TX 44 44 37 49 31 / 100 100 50 30 10
PARIS, TX 41 43 36 48 31 / 100 100 50 30 5
DENTON, TX 40 42 35 48 30 / 100 100 40 20 5
MCKINNEY, TX 41 42 35 48 31 / 100 100 40 30 5
DALLAS, TX 42 43 35 49 34 / 100 100 40 30 5
TERRELL, TX 43 43 37 48 32 / 100 100 50 30 5
CORSICANA, TX 43 44 37 48 32 / 100 100 50 30 10
TEMPLE, TX 45 45 38 50 32 / 100 100 50 30 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 40 42 34 49 30 / 100 100 40 20 5

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1156 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

A 925 TO 850 MB TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT LIFT UP TO 800 MB WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME
LESS DEEP THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT WILL KEEP THE LIGHT SNOW GOING
ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 95. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE UP TO A HALF INCH. WHILE THERE WILL BE LITTLE SNOW...MOST
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IT...SO WENT WITH A HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT UP TO 800 MB THROUGH
21.21Z AND THEN IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS DEEP. AS A
RESULT...EXTENDED THE REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES /1 TO 3 MILES/
DUE TO SNOW AND BR THROUGH THIS TIME. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH 22.03Z...BUT WILL NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES ANY
FURTHER. CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD WILL REAMIN IN THE
500 TO 1000 FOOT RANGE AT KRST AND BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FEET AT
KLSE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE