Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/19/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

330 AM PST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK. A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER COULD BRING MAINLY PATCHY DENSE FOG NEAR THE
COAST SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND WARMER DAYS.

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF SAN DIEGO SHOWS A COUPLE OF WEAK STABLE
LAYERS BELOW ABOUT 6000 FEET...THEN A GRADUAL DROP OFF IN THE
TEMPERATURES. THE SOUNDING DEW POINT TRACE INDICATES THE AIRMASS IS
VERY DRY...SHOWING ABOUT A 20 DEGREE DEPRESSION BELOW 6000 FEET.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BELOW 50 DEGREES...EVEN AT THE COAST...SHOWING
RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS. A PEEK AT THE CANSAC WRF...LOCAL
WRF...AND HRRR SHOW OFFSHORE DRAINAGE FLOW AT THE COAST...AND VERY
WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVES AND GAP FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD KILL
ANY CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING. BY SUNDAY THE WRF SHOWS A VERY SHALLOW INTRUSION OF
MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST...AND COULD BRING SOME PATCHY
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD ALSO BE THE CASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL
MODERATE TEMPS ALONG THE COAST...SO WE COULD EVEN SEE A BIT OF A
COOLING TREND THERE.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS SOME MINOR TROUGHING
ON TAP FOR THE REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES SHOULD LOWER AT THAT
TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR MARINE LAYER DEEPENING WITH THIS
TROUGH...BUT NOCTURNAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE
COASTAL AREAS AND FAR WESTERN VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD
FOR THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...
171000Z...NEAR THE COAST...A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER MAY CAUSE LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG BETWEEN ABOUT 07-15Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH VSBY RESTRICTION AS LOW AS 1/2 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS A FEW
HUNDRED FEET AGL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AND A FEW MILES INLAND.
OTHERWISE...FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.BEACHES...
200 AM...A FRESH WNW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED SURF...WITH SETS
NEAR 6 TO 7 FT...AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHEST
SURF WILL BE ALONG WEST FACING BEACHES IN NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ABOVE 7 FEET
DURING THE MORNINGS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL CREATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...AS SURF
BECOMES ELEVATED ONCE AGAIN.

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...BROTHERTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

926 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...
219 PM CST

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MOST PROMINENT FORECAST FEATURES ARE RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE NEAR TERM...AND PESKY SERIES OF PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE
WITH A NEW LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COST TONIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3
OF THE CONUS IS HELPING TO KEEP US RELATIVELY MILD FOR MID-JANUARY
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW AMPLIFIES A BIT MORE AND
ALLOWS SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WITH DISAPPEARING SNOW COVER AND GENERALLY
MILD PACIFIC FLOW...HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR
MONDAY AND ALONG THE LINES OF THE WARMER NUMBERS TUESDAY UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF US TUESDAY EVENING. THIS YIELDS LOWS IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30 AND HIGHS MID 30S TO LOW 40S. EVEN BEHIND THIS
FRONT...AIR IS ONLY A LITTLE COLDER...AND TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE AREA TO START THE DAY IN BETWEEN DEPARTING EASTERN
TROUGH...AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WHICH APPROACHES AND
EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...ALLOWING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH TO
DRIFT INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL...THOUGH BOUNDARY QUICKLY RETREATS BACK
TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. INITIAL SURFACE LOW
RIPPLES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AND
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LARGELY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH DOES
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW-MID LEVEL
SATURATION DEVELOPS WITH THIS FEATURE AS COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIR OOZES
IN...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW WHICH MAY POSSIBLY
BEGIN LATE AFTERNOON AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL. SOME
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS
AN INCH GIVEN LIGHT MODEL QPF. LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS WAVE TRACKS OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS BEGINS A SERIES OF
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVES...WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

RATZER

.LONG TERM...
219 PM CST

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. TIMING BETWEEN MODELS
BEGINS TO DIFFER AT BIT BY THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WHICH DRIFTS EAST TOWARD ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A BIT AGAIN
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE CANADIAN LOW MOVES
THROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER LOW-CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. ECMWF DIGS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...SLOWING PROGRESSION OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AS SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ALONG IT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW.

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* NONE

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...

LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE VFR STRATUS DECK WILL SINK SOUTH INTO
THE TERMINAL REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME VFR CIGS WHICH
ASSUMING THEY MAKE IT DOWN HERE WOULD LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING UNTIL FLOW BACKS MORE SOUTHERLY AND PUSHES IT BACK
OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY. CIGS WITHIN THIS DECK ARE ALL 4000FT OR
HIGHER AND WHILE THEY COULD BUILD DOWNWARD SOME TONIGHT WOULD
THINK IT IS PRETTY LIKELY THEY REMAIN VFR.

IZZI

UPDATED 00Z...

GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. DISSIPATING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND
SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO GO LIGHT/VARIABLE. LACK OF FLOW WILL
PROBABLY KEEP 3-5K FT STRATUS DECK OVER WISCONSIN FROM SLIPPING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. HIGHEST
CHANCE OF THIS STRATUS MAKING A RUN FOR THE TERMINALS APPEARS TO
BE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ASSUMING THE STRATUS STAYS
NORTH AS IT LOOKS LIKE TO THEN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
ADDED MOISTURE TO BOUNDARY LAYER FROM RECENT SNOW MELT DO RAISE
CONCERNS ABOUT VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY DPA/GYY. IF ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP
THEY WILL FADE BY MID MORNING MONDAY WITH JUST A BKN VFR MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER FORECAST OVERNIGHT/MONDAY
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY REMAINING VFR LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. -SHSN OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS PROBABLE. CHANCE OF -SHSN/FLURRIES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR. LIMITED PRECIP THREAT.

IZZI

.MARINE...
248 PM CST

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK BRINGING SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN WINDS...THAT SAID WINDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
MODEST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED. THE FIRST
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY. WINDS FRESHEN UP ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON
SATURDAY.

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
900 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

A weak ridge of high pressure is in place across central and
southeast Illinois, and it will remain through the night. Overall,
it looks like quiet weather should remain in place through the
night. However, some of the guidance, especially the high
resolution RAP & HRRR, suggest significant fog may develop
overnight.

Skies are and should remain mostly clear, and light winds will
persist as well. These are good radiational cooling condtions and
could be supportive of fog development. The latest surface
observastions across the area have fairly small temperature/dew
point spreads, generally not more than a few degrees, also
potentially supportive of fog. However, 00Z sounding at KILX was
pretty dry except for right at the surface. This fact, combined
with the very light winds, may be more supportive of dew and/or
very shallow fog. So, plan to only add patchy fog to the forecast
overnight. Otherwise, only minor forecast tweaks are necessary.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

The 20Z/2 pm surface map shows 995 mb low pressure over far eastern
Ontario with its cold front heading east of lower MI and toward the
Appalachians. 1029 mb high pressure was near the Rio Grande river in
sw Texas. Fairly tight pressure gradient over IL giving breezy west
winds 10-17 mph and gusts of 18-26 mph. Few-scattered stratocumulus
clouds 2-3k ft bases were along and ne of a Lacon to Champaign to
Paris line with broken ceilings ne of Vermilion county in ne IL and
central/ne IN. A band of cirrus clouds was streaming southeast across
sw IL southwest of Springfield and a smaller area of cirrus clouds
spreading quickly se into the Galesburg and Peoria area. Mild temps
were in the 40s with the Mount Carmel airport up to 50F.

Diurnally drive stratocumulus clouds will dissipate around dusk ne
CWA with fair skies tonight with some passing cirrus clouds. A weak
short wave near central IL at sunset will quickly exit IL early this
evening as strong upper trof in eastern states pulls away from IL,
with any additional short waves staying ne and north of central IL
into Monday with dry/fair weather prevailing. Weak surface high
pressure ridge nosing into IL from the sw during tonight will allow
west winds to diminish light early this evening. Dewpoints currently
mostly in the lower 30s, but upstream dewpoints over northern
MO/southern IA drop into the mid to upper 20s. Think guidance may
still be too cold with lows tonight (MET/MAV lows tonight close to
20F at Galesburg) since just a little snow pack left in ne counties.
Have lows 25-30F with Galesburg around 25F and sw counties closer to
30F. Some guidance especially GFS MOS shows patchy fog developing
during overnight until mid morning Monday over ne counties where
some snow melt occurring, but kept it out of forecast with drier air
(dewpoints in mid to upper 20s) advecting in from the west.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

Little change expected into at least the start of next weekend as
a fast west to northwest flow will bring several shortwaves into
the area about every one and a half to two days with only low
chance POPs included with these low amplitude waves.

One such wave is forecast to track quickly into central Illinois
Monday night with the latest ECMWF and GFS models indicating some
light QPF across the area. Forecast soundings not very impressive
with the lower levels still looking quite dry. The thermal profiles
would support rain if precip did occur, but at this point, will keep
POPs below slight chance for now Monday night and see if other models
jump on this weak wave. After that, a more vigorous shortwave is
forecast to track east-southeast into the lower Great Lakes late
Tuesday into Tuesday night with better lift and moisture profiles on
the 12z models. That should bring in some light precip Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning with POPs in the chance category north and
remaining in the slight chance category south ahead of this feature.
Some of the models continue to show a weak shortwave in the southern
stream just ahead of our Tuesday night/Wednesday morning system
which produces some light QPF over southern Missouri and extreme
southern Illinois. Looks as if the bulk of the lift with that feature
will remain just south of our area so will continue to keep POPs out
of southeast Illinois during the day Tuesday. In the wake of the
system on Wednesday morning, models showing somewhat colder air
advecting southeast into the area with 850 temps in the -4 to -6C
range which would still keep our daytime highs close to normal for
this time of year.

Models showing another fast moving wave approaching from the northwest
late Wednesday night into Thursday, with more of a sheared vorticity
pattern featured with this wave, so will only include slight chance
POPs across the northern half of the forecast area Wednesday night
and mainly over the eastern half of our area on Thursday. With most
of the systems pushing through the area during this period, if we
did see any measurable precipitation, it would be quite light,
generally less than a tenth of an inch, and favoring locations
across the north. After the Thursday system shifts off to our east
by afternoon, significant model differences are seen with respect
to the timing and strength of shortwaves approaching the area from
the northwest late in the week, and especially later next weekend.
Model consensus suggests the threat for rain or snow will start to
increase again on Sunday as an upper level wave and attendant
surface wave moves across the area. At this point, will keep the
POPs at low chance for rain or snow during the day and see how
future model runs resolve their differences in the next several
days.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

Weak high pressure will be impacting the weather across the
central Illinois terminals through the 00Z TAF valid time. Winds
will be light/variable overall. VFR conditions should prevail most
of the time as well, but several hours of MVFR VSBYS in fog are
likely later tonight into Monday morning.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

304 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...
259 PM CST

THROUGH MONDAY...

AFTER MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND THEN POSSIBLE FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW. THE
PARENT LOW STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE LAKES...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
SHOWS UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND ALL THE
WAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS A FAIRLY GENTLE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING SOME MOSTLY ELEVATED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...BUT SFC
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND BELOW CLOUD
BASES OF 5000 FT OR MORE. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE ALOFT AND THE BEST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAILING THE SFC FRONT...MID TO LOWER LEVELS SLOWLY
SATURATE BUT THEN HIGHER LEVELS START TO DRY OUT. MODELS ALSO ARE
SHOWING DECENT FGEN AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE AIR IN
THAT REGION IS NOT FAVORABLY COLD OR SATURATED ENOUGH FOR
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW GROWTH. FINALLY...LAKE EFFECTS IN NW INDIANA ALSO
ARE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY MILD AIR AND MORE WESTERLY THAN NORTH OR
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN SUMMARY...EXPECT THE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
TO PERSIST THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES LATE WITH DIURNAL COOLING.

COLDER AIR MIGHT BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS IS NEARLY
AS WARM AS WHAT WE ARE SEEING WITH TODAYS TEMPERATURES. FOR THAT
REASON...WILL ONLY DROP FCST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
30S...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PLACES IN THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF OUR AREA REACH 40 AGAIN WITH CLEARER SKIES
AND LESS SNOW COVER.

MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...LIKE TODAY PERHAPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LENNING

.LONG TERM...
259 PM CST

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

DETERMINISTIC MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT GENERALLY AGREE ON
BRINGING IT VERY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO
HAVE A DEEPER AND MORE ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE ALOFT...AND SOME MODELS
ARE HINTING AT MESOSCALE SUPPORT ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO
NARROW DOWN THE EXTENT AND AMOUNTS OF ANY SNOW THAT MIGHT DEVELOP.
WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR...SOME AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW TENTHS EVEN WITHOUT ASSISTANCE FROM MESOSCALE FORCING. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW ALSO RAISES THE IDEA OF PTYPE CONCERNS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AFTER ONE LAST SEASONABLY MILD DAY TUESDAY...OR AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY...MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING OUT WEST AND A DEEPENING TOUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SUPPORT THE ARRIVAL OF A COLDER AIRMASS LATE
TUESDAY WITH THE WEEKS COLDEST AIR SETTLING IN WEDNESDAY AND HANGING
AROUND AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY. SECONDARY COLD FRONTS AND WEAK UPPER
WAVES WILL SUPPORT ONGOING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...MILDER AIR MAY ARRIVE AGAIN FRIDAY OR LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A BROADER AND DEEPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND.

LENNING

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KT.

* COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST...STILL
GUSTY 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT.

* MVFR CIGS DEVELOP WITH/BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES
POSSIBLE LATE.

RATZER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AT MIDDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
TO NEAR 30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND EASING A BIT AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY PASSES DURING THE EVENING. WEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS STILL IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE.

LOW LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH ONLY VFR
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER MVFR DECK BEHIND COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
STRONGER SINKING AIR HELPS SCATTER THINGS OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FLURRIES BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...THOUGH THEY SHOULD NOT HAVE A NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON
TERMINALS. ADD TO THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RATZER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH IN WIND/GUST TRENDS.

* HIGH IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. MEDIUM-HIGH IN TIMING.

RATZER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AT NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

MTF

.MARINE...
136 PM CST

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND OVER THE LAKE.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF GALES WILL BE ENDING...SO I WILL
ALLOW THE GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 3 PM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A WESTERLY WIND
OVER THE LAKE INTO SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 25
TO 30 KT RANGE TONIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY ABATE TO 15 TO 25 KT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE BY
EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...A
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY APPROACH THE WESTERN LAKES BY
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...SO A GRADUAL UPTAKE IN WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS UP AROUND 25 KT LOOKING
TO BE A GOOD BET LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD ALSO
IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY.

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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
250 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

20z/2 PM surface map shows deepening 991 mb low pressure nw of Lake
Superior with its cold front extending southward across western WI
to near the IA/IL border into central MO. This front will sweep
eastward across central and eastern IL during this evening, shifting
breezy ssw winds 15-25 mph and gusts 25-35 mph to the WNW with its
passage and diminishing to 10-20 mph tonight. A fairly strong upper
level trof over western MN to the NE/IA border to push eastward into
IL by 06Z/midnight tonight and to the IN/OH border by sunrise
Sunday. Already increased clouds this afternoon and tonight as cloud
levels lower tonight. But still think light measureable mixed
precipitation will be mainly east and ne of IL over Indiana and the
Great Lakes region since moisture limited over central IL. So
continued with chance of flurries and sprinkles over central IL this
evening and ending chances from west to east during overnight as
short wave trof axis passes to the east. Lows mostly in the lower
30s tonight with upper 20s near Galesburg and mid 30s near the
Wabash river by Lawrenceville.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

The upper air pattern across the lower 48 will continue to keep
the very cold air locked up over northern Canada with a more active
southern stream shunting the more significant precipitation well
to our south during this period. Several disturbances embedded in
the west to northwest flow pattern will track mainly to our north
during this period keeping us mild into early next week with little
in the way of significant rain or snow expected with these fast
moving shortwaves.

The upper trof and attendant frontal boundary that pushed across our
area today will be well off to our east by Sunday morning. Forecast
soundings showing quite a bit of low level moisture in place into
early Sunday morning with drier air filtering in from the west and
northwest during the day. Satellite data and upstream surface
observations showing a small band of lower clouds tracking southeast
behind the cool front but the HRRR model has been consistenly showing
the backedge of those clouds pushing into west central Illinois just
after midnight tonight, so with our low level flowing becoming less
cyclonic during the day Sunday, will decrease the cloud cover from
west to east in the morning. Not a lot of cold air available behind
the system late tonight into Sunday so temps will be above normal
again Sunday afternoon, although not quite as mild as this afternoon.

The next shortwave forecast to dig into the lower Great Lakes on
Tuesday with low chance POPs confined to the north starting later
Monday night and holding into Tuesday evening across the east. Once
again, not a major rain or snow system with very little moisture
available to the upper wave. After that, a series of fast moving
shortwaves will track east southeast into the lower Great Lakes with
the surface lows moving mainly to our north. By Thursday, we see some
disagreement with the models in the speed and strength of the approaching
shortwave with the GFS much more aggressive with the upper wave and
further south track on the surface low than the current ECMWF. For now,
will side more with the weaker ECMWF which would lead to a further track
to the north later in the week, which would once again keep any low
chance POPs confined to the north.

Towards the end of this forecast period models are starting to show
some ridging building northward around 140 degrees Longitude with
500 mb heights starting to lower over the central U.S. which would
lead to some colder temps for the last week of January. Will see
if the medium and long range models hold on to this idea in the next
several days. In the mean time, we should see a return to more seasonably
cold weather starting on Wednesday.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

Strong ssw winds 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts this afternoon to
veer wsw by early evening and diminish to 10-15 kts this evening.
West winds overnight and Sunday behind cold front with gusts 15-20
kts Sunday morning. VFR conditions expected to continue this
afternoon with 2.5-5k ft ceilings moving eastward behind cold
front during early evening 00Z-02Z. Continued VCSH tonight with
chance of sprinkles or flurries with best chances along I-74 from
03Z-09Z time frame. Elongated 994 mb low pressure north of MN over
western Ontario with its cold front extending southward through
eastern IA into nw MO will sweel front east across IL during
early/mid evening hours with strong upper level trof shifting
eastward into IL by 06Z/midnight tonight and to along the OH/IN
border by 12Z/6 am Sunday. Low clouds could scatter out from 15-18Z
Sunday morning at DEC and especially SPI while low clouds hanging
on along I-74.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

555 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP
MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

FANTASTIC AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION AS A COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT OVERACHIEVING TEMPS
TO THE REGION. 20Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S WHERE LINGERING
SNOW COVER PERSISTED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES TO EVEN SOME MID 50S OVER
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGH
SUNSET...WITH SKIES QUICKLY BECOMING CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS APPROACHES. HI-RES
GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR BOTH HIGHLIGHT LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PULLING
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WITH AN UPPER
WAVE TRAILING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING THAT PRECIP INITIALLY WILL FALL AS A
LIGHT RAIN. LOW LEVEL THERMALS WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW MIXING
IN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AFTER 06Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY IMPACTS FROM LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS
ALL NIGHT. COULD SEE A TENTH OR SO OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
PERSISTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT PEAK GUSTS AT 35-40MPH
THROUGH SUNSET...DROPPING BACK TO 25-30MPH DURING THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING BELOW 20MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEPARTS
OFF TO THE EAST.

TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE OUTPACED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED LOWS TONIGHT.
GENERALLY WENT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR LOWS FOR THIS
REASON...WITH ALL BUT THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY ABOVE 32F THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AND PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES TO LINGER OVER EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE MORNING AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT DIVES INTO THE BACK END
OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

PRIMARY ISSUE FOR SUNDAY WILL FOCUS ON THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH
CONSIDERING THE COLD ADVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY
SCOURING OUT DURING THE DAY. OP GFS AND NAM BOTH MAINTAIN A
HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF MOISTURE AT 925MB INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
AIR FINALLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BY LATE DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED
PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA AND HELD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND INTO THE EVENING
FURTHER EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING BY TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD FINALLY ENABLE SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

WARM ADVECTION RETURNS MONDAY IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U S AND AN UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING
WITH IT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH BULK OF THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT
HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY
SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF PREDOMINANT
LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED IMPACT FROM CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...LEANED TOWARDS
COOLER METMOS FOR HIGHS. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MAVMOS FOR MONDAY
HIGHS...THEN UNDERCUT ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP. TOOK A MOS
BLEND ON LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE DETAILS OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEMS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT. HAD TO ALTER
SUPERBLEND/S POPS...OTHERWISE GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO IT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES.

LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONE
SYSTEM EXITS. FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEPT A DRY FORECAST AND
REMOVED ANY SUPERBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SAKE OF
CONTINUITY.

ON THURSDAY SUPERBLEND IS DRY BUT AGAIN FOR SAKE OF CONTINUITY KEPT
SOME SMALL POPS IN THE FAR EAST. ON FRIDAY...12Z GFS AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL BRING A CLIPPER THROUGH THE AREA. 12Z ECMWF IS DRY.
SUPERBLEND IS DRY...BUT WITH 2 MODELS SHOWING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 554 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE ROUTES WILL BRING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW
TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT ANY ONE POINT AT ANY ONE TIME IS
LOW. THE USE OF VICINITY IN THE TAFS CAPTURES THIS BETTER THAN
EXPLICITLY FORECASTING PRECIPITATION. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN ANY SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. CEILINGS WILL
BECOME MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS ARE GOING VEER FROM SOUTH TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN
WEST SUNDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BEGINNING
LATE TOMORROW MORNING EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS DAYTIME
HEATING ALLOWS AIR TO MIX DOWN FROM ABOVE THE SURFACE.
&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JK

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

550 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AND PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 550 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JK

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

350 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AND PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 172100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR THROUGH 03Z OR SO...THEN MVFR. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25KT THROUGH
03Z OR SO.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25KT AND SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 10KT.

AFTER 03Z EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
PERHAPS MVFR VISIBILITY. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND PERHAPS CHANGE TO
SNOW AFTER 06Z BUT STILL ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY.

PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS FROM ONSET THROUGH 12Z BUT TOO
UNCERTAIN TO TRY AND PIN DOWN SPECIFIC TIMING. WITH ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED KEPT IT SIMPLE WITH PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS.

AFTER 12Z EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AND PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

VFR THROUGH 03Z OR SO...THEN MVFR. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25KT THROUGH
03Z OR SO.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25KT AND SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 10KT.

PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS FROM ONSET THROUGH 12Z BUT TOO
UNCERTAIN TO TRY AND PIN DOWN SPECIFIC TIMING. WITH ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED KEPT IT SIMPLE WITH PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS.

AFTER 12Z EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

305 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY COLDER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BRIEFLY WARM UP AGAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
BRINGS LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY WITH PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS ARE INDICATING CLEAR SKIES OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...LOWERED CLOUD COVER OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH WINDS IN THE 4 TO 8 MPH RANGE
AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE
NEAR TERM AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATER THIS EVENING. RAP AND
HRRR BOTH SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE 925-950MB
LAYER AFTER 02-03Z OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY. BOTH THE NAM
AND OP GFS HINT AT THIS AS WELL. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST AS A PERIOD
OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY
SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH RAP/HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A SHARP INVERSION
PRESENT AT 1000FT AND LOWER. ONE MITIGATING FACTOR THAT WOULD KEEP
ANY FOG LIMITED IS THE INCREASE IN SURFACE FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL KEEP ANY FOG MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR INTO THE EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS...WITH WARM ADVECTION COMMENCING AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT LOWS TO OCCUR MOST AREAS BY LATE EVENING WITH STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THEREAFTER. ENDED UP SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING
MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RETURNING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S BY
12Z.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY STANDS A STRONG CHANCE TO BE THE PICK DAY OF THE MONTH SO
FAR...DESPITE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY. 40-50KT 850MB JET WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
ENSURE A BREEZY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 20MPH
AND GUSTS INTO THE 30-35MPH RANGE.

FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
CONSENSUS STARTING TO ZERO IN ON A BAND OF PRECIP SWINGING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...STARTING FIRST AS RAIN THEN MIXING WITH AND
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS LOW LEVEL THERMALS BECOME SUPPORTIVE.
STILL THINK SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS
FAVOR HANGING ONTO LOWER CLOUDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY WITH
SLOW CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
QUICKLY BACK IN BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION RESUMING. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

TEMPS...CONSIDERING TEMP PERFORMANCE SO FAR TODAY AND EXPECTATION OF
A LOT OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY...PREFER LEANING CLOSER TO THE WARMER
MAVMOS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MANY.
TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND
LINGERING CLOUDS. UNDERCUT AGGRESSIVE MAVMOS FOR MONDAY AS WELL...
BUT STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPS RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. TOOK MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

THE EXTENDED LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF UPPER
SYSTEMS DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH COULD
BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILES
INCORPORATING BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ON TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN WITH A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OR SNOW WITH BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS DRY-SLOTTING THE
AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM ON THURSDAY COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. LOW POPS FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND LOOK OK THERE AS
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY THE UPPER WAVE PROVIDING ANY KIND OF LIFT.

REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON
TUESDAY LOOK GOOD BASED ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. THEN...EXPECT SEASONABLE READINGS THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY KLAF THROUGH 14Z. THEN VFR
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER THAT.

SATELLITE SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR REGION. MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOG MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE SOME SNOW MELTED
EARLIER TODAY. WORKING AGAINST THE FOG...WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES OR BETTER.

ON SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS WILL BE THE
RULE AS A SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AFTER
SUNSET ON SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY EVENING CAUSING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/TDUD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1145 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 219 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

A COUPLE OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG
TERM. MOISTURE/FORCING ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH EITHER FEATURE...SO
WILL KEEP POPS LOW.

THE FIRST ONE ALSO HAS A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH IT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER...SO LIMITED ANY FREEZING RAIN TO THE NORTH
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY TUESDAY...WITH JUST RAIN OTHERWISE.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE SECOND UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ON THURSDAY. AGAIN WITH
LIMITED FORCING/MOISTURE JUST WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK COOL ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW.

THERE WILL BE A GENERAL COOLING TREND DURING THE EXTENDED AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY KLAF THROUGH 14Z. THEN VFR
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER THAT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY EVENING CAUSING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/TDUD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JH

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

630 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

WITH STRONG H85 WAA...H85 TEMPS AROUND +9C AND 900 HPA TEMPS OF +11C
OFF THE KDVN RAOB...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN THE NEED TO RAISE TEMPS FOR TODAY AND THE AM. HAVE
RAISED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES CWA WIDE. THERE MAY BE A NEED TO
INCREASE TEMPS AGAIN LATER THIS AM. THE 11Z RUC SUGGESTS HIGHS IN
NE MO IN THE MID 50S...NOT READY TO BITE ON THAT YET...HOWEVER IT
IS THE BEST MODEL IN REPRESENTING OVERALL TEMPS TODAY. ALL OF THE
OTHER MODELS ARE ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 5 DEGREES TOO COLD. NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

THE 09Z SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NE ND TODAY. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW THRU GRAND ISLAND NE. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG H85 WAA WAS MOVING THRU OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT AND INTO TODAY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER
THRU A COLD FRONT TODAY...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S AND EVEN SOME 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

AN INTENSIFYING WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROF WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. COLD AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MODEL QPF IS VIRTUALLY NON
EXISTENT..HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIRES MODELS...AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT
WE MAY SEE SOME PRECIP TODAY WITH FROPA AND THE ADVECTION OF COLD
AIR INTO THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.

MODEL TEMPS FOR TODAY WERE ALL TOO LOW. HAD TO INCREASE TEMPS FOR
THE HIGHS TODAY. WITH STRONG H85 WAA AND WARM TEMPS
YESTERDAY...THINK THAT WE WILL HAVE JUST AS WARM IF NOT WARMER
TEMPS TODAY...EVEN WITH THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPS MAY NEED TO
BE RAISED TODAY. THE NAM AGAIN SEEMS TO BE INFLUENCED BY SNOW
COVER AND IS TOO COLD. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
SNOW FLURRIES...WE MAY SEE THEM MELT IN THE LOW LEVELS. AT THIS
TIME ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN-- SEEMS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

THE MAIN LONG TERM HIGHLIGHTS ARE CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND A WEAK SYSTEM FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT DRY AND CONTINUED MILD
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED THE CONSENSUS BLEND
GUIDANCE UPWARD...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...GIVEN THE DIMINISHING SNOW
COVER. THE FAR SOUTHWEST COULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 50 SUNDAY...AND IN THE
LOW 50S MONDAY.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUE THEIR GENERAL
CONSENSUS IN ADVERTISING A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY DEPENDING ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGHS IN THE
20S/30S...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

WAA AND LLJ ARE LEADING TO SOME WIND SHEAR ISSUES THIS AM. THIS
SHOULD WANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS. SNOW FLURRIES MAY
BE POSSIBLE AT MLI...BRL AND DBQ THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE FLURRY OCCURRENCE. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO
WNW THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE CAA.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...GIBBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

343 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

THE MAIN LONG TERM HIGHLIGHTS ARE CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND A WEAK SYSTEM FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGHS IN THE
20S/30S...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL AFFECT DBQ AND POSSIBLY MLI NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
WARM FRONT PASSES. KDVN WSR-88D VWP SAMPLING 40-45 KTS IN LOWER GATES
THUS HAVE MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT WITH
SFC WINDS S/SE AROUND 10-15 KTS. ON SATURDAY SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO
SOUTHWEST AT OR ABOVE 10 KTS AND BECOME GUSTY... EVENTUALLY VEERING
FURTHER TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL
OF COLD FRONT. PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDINESS WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SKIES THEN LIKELY
TO TRANSITION BACK TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY
EVENING.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

1144 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

Recent water vapor imagery and RAP analysis showing a weak upper
wave moving east across South Dakota and Nebraska, with a much
stronger wave exiting the Pacific Northwest into the Northern
Rockies. Deep west to southwest flow has resulted over Kansas with
dry and warm lower tropospheric conditions and breezy winds
dominating.

With fairly progressive flow in place, the upper waves make quick
progress through the region through Saturday afternoon. The first
wave brings some high clouds through this evening, but more and
somewhat deeper cloud approaches late tonight and exits Saturday
afternoon with the stronger wave. Rather strong lift exits ahead of
this wave, but the still dry mid to lower levels should keep
precipitation in check. Wind speeds diminish a bit this evening but
pick up again Saturday as deeper mixing occurs in strong cold air
advection around 850mb. Winds aloft don`t quite support Advisory
levels but could be close in the north and west. The mixing and only
modified airmass should still allow temps to reach into the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

For Saturday night through Monday, models continue to show a warm
and dry weather pattern with northwest flow aloft and low level
trajectories either from the southwest or west. This low level
pattern does not favor very good moisture return. Therefore think
precip chances are pretty close to zero. Have again trended temps
warmer for Sunday and Monday. Given today`s temps, think there is
a chance the forecast for Sunday may be a little to cool. Although
Models do not show 925MB temps quite as warm as today. Therefore
have kept highs generally around 60. A frontal boundary should
move through the area late Monday. At this time, think it will be
late enough in the day that temps warm into the mid and upper
50s.

Monday night through Friday should see a cooling trend as the
models transition the pattern from northwest flow to more of a
broad cyclonic split flow aloft, as energy tries to dig southwest
into AZ and NM. There should be weak perturbations move across the
forecast area through this period. However with a modified ridge
of high pressure from the Pacific northwest building into the
central plains, there is not much opportunity for moisture to
advect north. The ECMWF remains the only solution to bring very
light QPF into parts of the area, and it has not had the best run
to run continuity of late. Therefore have maintained a dry
forecast through the end of the week. Reinforcing surges of high
pressure from the north and northwest should keep temps closer to
climo with lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A southwesterly
50KT low-level jet at 950mb will continue across terminals through 12Z,
thus if we decouple and winds become lighter then low-level
wind shear criteria will be met through 12Z. The surface winds will
switch to the northwest by late morning and increase to 12 to 16
KTS with higher gusts through the afternoon. Winds will diminish
after sunset.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1037 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015

AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS SOME CIRRUS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES REACHED THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ARE FROM THE WEST BUT QUITE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH WITH SOME
STATIONS REPORTING CALM WINDS. ALOFT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
IS GLIDING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN THE CIRRUS. ANOTHER
STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED OVER MONTANA AND IDAHO.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CALM WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. SKIES SHOULD CLOUD UP LATER TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN
DISTURBANCE SPREADS IN FROM WYOMING. THIS RESULTS IN NEAR-STAGNANT
TEMPERATURES THAT FALL EXTREMELY SLOW AND REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (NORMALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS).

BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE SUNRISE...THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR
NORTHWEST FORCES A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS SOLUTION HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT IN SEVERAL GFS...WRF ARW...WRF NMM AND HRRR RUNS.
WINDS WEAKEN SOME FURTHER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN SPEED ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING IS REALIZED.
ALOFT...WINDS HAVE WEAKENED FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE BUT STILL SHOW A
50-60 KT JET 1 KM ABOVE THE SURFACE. INTERESTING ITEM TO NOTE IS
THAT THE STRONGEST JET OF WINDS SHOULD SLIDE FURTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. THIS MEANS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW
EXPECTED GENERALLY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER...IF NOT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME MIXING DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY STRONG
WITH FORECAST LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-7 C/KM. OVERALL LOWERED WIND
SPEEDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES BUT STRONGEST WIND GUSTS MAY
STILL EXCEED 40 KNOTS...OR 46 MPH.

ANOTHER NOTE ABOUT TOMORROW`S WINDS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CONCERNS
THAT SOME BLOWING DUST MAY BE OBSERVED. CHECKED THE SOIL MOISTURE
THIS MORNING AND IT IS QUITE WET. PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS OVER THE
LAST 30 DAYS INDICATES THAT WE HAVE BEEN AROUND 0.5" TO 1.0" ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS DOES NOT EVEN INCLUDE THE WIDESPREAD 0.75" TO 1.00"
RAINS RECEIVED ON DECEMBER 14TH...2014. AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS INDICATES ONE PLUME OF DUST TOMORROW
AROUND HILL CITY...KANSAS. WHILE THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE...THE DUST
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE BLOWING DUST ANYWHERE ELSE SO IT IS
QUITE ISOLATED. BY THIS REASONING AND THAT WE ARE FORECASTING LOWER
WIND SPEEDS OVER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS WITH BLOWING
DUST...HAVE REMOVED BLOWING DUST FROM THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS BRINGING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. ONE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY BUT MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO WITH THE PLAINS DRY
PROBABLY DUE TO LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECT.
MODELS SHOW A BIT MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM SO WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE DRY WITH LACK OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE FOR LIFT. BY
WEDNESDAY MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF
SHOWING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH ASSOCIATED
LIGHT SNOWFALL BUT THE GFS DRY...SO WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIM TO NONE IN THAT PATTERN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH AREA. INITIAL
WINDS DURING THE NIGHT WILL BE NEAR 22 KNOTS WITH GUSTS ABOUT 10
KNOTS HIGHER. AFTER THE SUN COMES AND MIXING BEGINS...SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 24 TO 28 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE AT KMCK. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE NEAR SUNSET.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

357 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTH THE REGION MID WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS HAS LINGERED OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ITS EDGES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
ERODING. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MOISTURE LAYOUT
AND SHOWS THE CLOUDS THINNING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BUT CIRRUS WILL BEGIN INCREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED...WHICH WILL MEAN A COOLER DAY
THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE SUN AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW...FAVORED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ATTENTION TURNS TO A PAIR OF WX
DISTURBANCES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MS
VALLEY WILL INTERACT WITH A MORE SUBTLE DISTURBANCE/JET MAX IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM TO EVENTUALLY FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP TO AFFECT
OUR AREA WILL OCCUR BEFORE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES OFF. A STRONG LLJ WILL
BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...TRANSPORTING HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE GFS AND SREF. SPED UP TIMING OF THE PRECIP SLIGHTLY
AND ALSO INCREASED POPS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE A SHARP CUTOFF. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALMOST CERTAINLY LOOKS DRY
FOR THIS ROUND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE SOME PRECIP FROM THE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM LESS THAN A TENTH TO AROUND A HALF INCH
FROM W TO E ACROSS THE DC METRO...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE BAY. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL SPREAD IN THE UPPER TROUGH
SOLUTION THOUGH...SO THERE STILL MAY BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST.

THE MORNING TIMING RAISES CONCERNS ABOUT P-TYPES...AND WITH THE
STRONG WAA ALOFT...CAN ALMOST CERTAINLY RULE OUT SNOW. THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NONDIURNAL TONIGHT...WITH SLOW RISES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE AREAS WHICH WILL REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING AT SUNRISE WOULD LIKELY NOT BE SEEING PRECIP AT THIS POINT.
THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FZRA WOULD
BE THE N/NW BALTIMORE SUBURBS...BUT THIS IS A SMALL CHANCE. A
MIXTURE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS/W MD IF THE
NORTHERN STREAM MOISTURE MOVES IN QUICKLY ENOUGH.

THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO PULL EAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO MAINLY
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. A CORRIDOR OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY/W-CENTRAL MD COULD MEAN SOME
GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL COULD DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY RAIN. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING
INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...ALLOWING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE RIDING ALONG A COLD FRONT PARALLELED TO THE EAST COAST
SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE AND DELMARVA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC BY
SUNDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED WITH THE
FIRST COLD FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE TONGUE OF HIGH PWATS AND
THETA-E AREA. HOWEVER...STRONG DYNAMICS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF I-66 IN
VA AND I-50 IN MD. W-NW WINDS AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG LIFT AND MOISTURE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL ENHANCE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AS SLR RISE. AROUND
AN INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLEARING WILL
OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST...EAST OF THE MTNS.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AS
SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE NRN ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE 30S IN THE MTNS AND 40S ELSEWHERE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL START LINING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW
AND NRN PLAINS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY TRAILING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIFFERS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WHERE THE
GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH AND HENCE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION STAYS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH SPREADING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 40S TO NEAR 50S MID WEEK AND ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

THE TROUGH BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MID TO LATE WEEK SHUTTING OFF
ANY COLD CANADIAN AIR FROM REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
TROUGH LEADING TO A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS. NW
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS.

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY. INTERMITTENT VFR CIGS SHOULD
ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER FROM NE TO S AS THE
HIGH PASSES...BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 10 KT.

CIGS DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LOWER TOWARD DAWN. STRONG WINDS DEVELOP
ALOFT...BUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAY NOT BE SHARP ENOUGH TO CAUSE
LLWS. RAIN LIKELY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. DCA/BWI/MTN STAND
TO SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF A STEADIER PERIOD OF RAIN AND REDUCED
CIGS/VSBY (POSSIBLE IFR). IAD WILL BE ON THE BORDER. STEADY RAIN
LIKELY ENDS MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT PASSES LATE AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
WEST.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY...ALLOWING THE NORTHERLY
WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS SHOULD STAY
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING RAIN OVER THE WATERS BY DAYBREAK AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG A FEW THOUSAND FEET
ALOFT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MIXING WILL BE LIMITED. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE W-NW.

NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO GUSTY CONDITIONS AND SCA IS LIKELY FOR ALL
THE WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS DEEP MIXING MAY ALLOW 34KT
OR GREATER GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS
MARINE...ADS/HAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

305 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. LIKE LAST NIGHT...VISIBILITIES
MAY FALL BELOW ONE HALF MILE CREATING A THIN GLAZE OF ICE ON
ROADWAYS. ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY WINDS WILL AID IN WARMING UP
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMTH
WILL REMAIN IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
WILL YO-YO BACK DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY THANKS TO A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION RETURNS.

.DISCUSSION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE ONCE AGAIN PLAGUED NW NM TODAY. THOUGH THE
FOG LIFTED AT OR SHORTLY BEFORE NOON...THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED
KEEPING TEMPERATURES QUITE COLD AND WELL BELOW ANY GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
GIVEN THAT THEY DID NOT GET OUT OF THE MUCK TODAY...IT IS HIGHLY
LIKELY THAT THE SAME WILL HAPPEN AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR PROGS SUPPORT THIS...AND THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FROM 9PM TONIGHT TIL 10AM SUN FOR ZONES
501-502-504. FOR ZONE 504...THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE WEST/NW OF
THE CONTDVD.

MEANWHILE...THE BACK DOOR FRONT OR WIND SHIFT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED
BEHIND IT. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO NOTED BEHIND IT...THUS AS
OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS BACK DOOR FRONTS...NO LOW CLOUDS OR FOG ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE NW MOST LIKELY
AGAIN...AND ADDITIONALLY...A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN...WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR FARMINGTON AND SURROUNDING AREAS FOR MAX TEMPS.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS
ALLOWING FOR BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY WINDS. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR BETWEEN 5 AND NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. IN FACT...EXCEPT FOR THE FMN AREA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS SHOULD ALSO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THOUGH NOT AS
MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE QUITE WARM...THOUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS NW NM.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS IN STORE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TUESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES
FROM MONDAYS READINGS. WESTERN AREAS WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL...THANKS TO A VEIL OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE BACK DOOR FRONT LOOKS TO BE REINFORCED LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN TEMPS CONTINUING TO DROP. WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT ORGANIZING STORM
SYSTEM. MODELS INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
INTO AZ OUT OF NW FLOW ALOFT LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS
INDICATE A BAND OF MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NM ALONG THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WEDNESDAY AFTN...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN IF
ANY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS. THE EC IS THE MOST
BULLISH ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP...BUT EVEN THEN WOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHAT WILL HAPPEN THEREAFTER. THE
GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM CLOSING OFF NEAR THE BOOTHEEL WHILE THE EC
CONTINUES TO MIGRATE THE TROUGH EASTWARD. BASED ON THE
LATTER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY END BY FRIDAY...THOUGH IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT...PRECIP COULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM ENERGY DROPPING INTO
THE REGION BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS WONKY AT BEST. SIDED MORE WITH THE
DRIER EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE FRI AND BEYOND FOR NOW. STAY TUNED.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE VENTILATION RATES...WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY POOR TO FAIR.

COLD FRONT MADE IT THROUGH ROSWELL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SHROUD THE NORTHWEST TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE IT IS
SUNNY AND RATHER COMFORTABLE FOR MID JANUARY.

TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU. DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN AS WELL
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE EAST BUT 70S AND 80S IN THE WEST.

A NICE DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH
FILTERED BY HIGH CLOUDS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ONTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HIGHER AT MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS TROUGH. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST...WHILE ELSEWHERE
THEY WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S AND 30S...40S IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE
CLOUDS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY ONCE AGAIN AND HOLD DOWN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE THE
VENT RATES THAT WILL BE POOR IN MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
AREAS...WITH SOME FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST OWING TO THE WINDS
HELPING RAISE THE MIXING HEIGHTS SOME. NIGHTTIME RH RECOVERIES WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S AND 60S IN THE EAST AND MOSTLY BETWEEN 80 AND
100 PERCENT IN THE WEST.

THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE
AND EVEN MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT COULD REACH THE NORTHEAST AND PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT
LOWER THAN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOWER OVER THE EAST...WITH MODERATE
BREEZES FROM CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA ROSA. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN
THE 20S AND 30S. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE A BIT MOST AREAS...BUT
STILL BE FAIR TO POOR IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FAIR OR
BETTER IN THE EAST. THERE WILL EVEN BE SOME VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENT RATES IN THE NORTHEAST THANKS TO HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH
COOLER DAY ON TAP FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY SO IN
THE EAST. MIN RH VALUES WILL ONLY LOWER TO THE 30S AND 40S. TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE EAST DURING THE MORNING
DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. VENT RATES WILL DROP BACK TO
MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR VALUES TUESDAY...EXCEPT SOME GOOD RATES RIGHT
ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER.

A REINFORCING FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND WE
COULD SEE OUR FIRST LIGHT PRECIPITATION OF THE WEEK DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE
NIGHTTIME RH RECOVERIES WILL BE MOSTLY EXCELLENT.

A STRENGTHENING TROUGH TO OUR WEST MAY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE STATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH CHILLY...BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME MIN RH VALUES ONLY IN THE 40S TO
60S. AGAIN THE VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

MOST MODELS THEN DRY THINGS OUT FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

CHJ

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
FOG TRYING TO LIFT AT FMN BUT PROCESS IS SLOW. MVFR FOG BUT IFR TO
LIFR CIGS NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR ONLY A FEW
HOURS AT FMN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THEN DROPPING DOWN TO 1/2SM AND
OVC002 BY MID EVENING AGAIN AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON NORTH
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT FROM CAO TO CVN...AROUND 20 KT GUSTS
FROM TCC TO ROW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNSET. 40

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 25 43 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 14 48 15 50 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 17 47 18 50 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 22 56 17 57 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 21 52 20 54 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 16 54 17 57 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 22 56 21 58 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 25 62 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 8 44 8 46 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 25 47 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 22 47 24 50 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 10 40 12 43 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 11 44 16 42 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 9 45 14 45 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 12 44 14 47 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 21 52 23 54 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 23 53 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 24 45 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 22 49 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 27 51 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 27 54 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 22 55 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 23 54 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 21 55 21 58 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 27 53 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 28 60 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 26 49 28 53 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 27 51 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 22 51 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 26 48 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 25 51 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 27 56 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 25 57 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 24 56 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 17 57 21 58 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 21 57 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 25 60 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 31 69 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 26 63 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 32 67 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 31 64 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 32 67 31 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 32 63 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 31 64 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 31 66 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 24 67 28 70 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 28 66 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 28 62 33 66 / 0 0 0 0

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501-503-504.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1036 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIFR CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL A LITTLE TRICKY AS FAR AS THE END TIME. FMN
WILL BE MOST IMPACTED...GUP STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL AS WELL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS. WIND GRADIENT ALOFT IS
ALSO INCREASING SO EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNSLOPE GUSTS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND SANDIA/MANZANO
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. USED A TEMPO GROUP AT LVS
TO INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN
TERMS OF IMPACT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...825 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO BEGIN AREAS OF FREEZING FOG PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. KFMN JUST WENT DOWN TO ONE HALF
MILE VISIBILITY IN FREEZING FOG. A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...VISIBILITIES
MAY DROP BELOW ONE HALF MILE AND A THIN GLAZE OF ICE MAY FORM ON
ROADWAYS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
AREAS ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
OVERNIGHT. GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
IT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN...ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM...BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BE WIDESPREAD.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE VERY SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS NORTHWEST NM TODAY.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE FZFG WILL
REFORM. THOUGH THERE ARE ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE
HORIZON...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BEFORE SUNRISE. THE HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS/FOG. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FZFG TO THE GRIDS AROUND
FMN AND GUP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PULL THE TRIGGER
ON A FZFG ADVISORY ATTM.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP NE NM OVERNIGHT...AND
THOUGH THERE IS INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT FOR
PRECIPITATION...MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
NEAR 50KT ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN.
FAVORED LOCALES ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...INCLUDING CQC...WILL BE IN STORE FOR A BREEZY TO WINDY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.
ACCOMPANING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DID LOWER TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FOR SAT AFTN. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE
TEXAS BORDER BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT QUICKLY WASHES OUT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY/WINDY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR
ON SUNDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH SUN AND MON WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY WILL SEND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN
NM...THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AREAWIDE. TEMPS ON TUES
WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO REALLY STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES/CROSSES NM ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT...WHICH RESULTS
IN THE GFS HAVING VERY LITTLE PRECIP DESPITE THE BACK DOOR FRONT
REINFORCEMENT...AND THE EC SHOWING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
FURTHER...THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SYSTEM ON ITS
HEELS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM AND MODELS ARE HAVING AN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING THEM. NONETHELESS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION MID WEEK...BUT TOO SOON TO SAY HOW MUCH OR WHAT AREAS
WILL BE FAVORED. STAY TUNED.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AND RELATIVELY WARMER PATTERN HAS PREVAILED TODAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING.
POOR VENTILATION HAS BEEN IN PLACE TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THEME INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY`S LIGHT BREEZES OVER THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN ZONES ARE ALSO COUPLING WITH STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS
AND A STUBBORN LAYER OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE STATE. THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE HAMPERED THE
WARMING TREND IN NORTHWEST NM...BUT OTHERWISE THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
HAVE YIELDED NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. DOWNSLOPING BREEZES
HAVE REALLY HELPED THE NORTHEAST WARM UP EVEN MORE...SOME 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THESE EASTERN DOWNSLOPE AREAS ARE WHERE RH HAS DROPPED
THE LOWEST...EVEN BELOW 10 PERCENT...BUT THE SNOW MELT AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER NORTHWESTERN NM HAVE KEPT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND RH
INTACT. TONIGHT`S RECOVERY WILL BE EXCELLENT IN THE SAN JUAN
BASIN...AND POOR TO FAIR IN THE NORTHEAST WITH DOWNSLOPING BREEZES
STAYING ALIVE ALL NIGHT. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL
ENHANCE SOME OF THESE WINDS...TURNING THEM GUSTY IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVERNIGHT.

A FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF NM SATURDAY
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES. CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE LITTLE CHANGE
TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES. POOR VENTILATION
WILL PERSIST. INTO SUNDAY NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT RELAX SOME AND A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH REDEVELOPS. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND WHAT THEY LOST ON SATURDAY...AND
THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE.

BY MONDAY A STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OBSERVED OVER NM AS A
GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE TROUGH USHERS ANOTHER COOLER AIR MASS CLOSER
TO THE STATE. SOME BETTER VENTILATION RATES ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED
FOR MONDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE REDUCE WITH NEWER
MODEL RUNS. THIS APPROACH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE INTO NM MONDAY
NIGHT...YIELDING MUCH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS INTO TUESDAY.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A TROUGH THAT TAKES SHAPE OVER
AZ AND SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WOULD SPREAD SOME HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME WHILE DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE. THE FINER DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT ARE STILL BEING RESOLVED...BUT THIS COOLER AND
WETTER PERIOD WILL CERTAINLY PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501-503.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

634 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...WILL AFFECT
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER
EXPECTED.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 307 PM EST SUNDAY...COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO CONTINUES TO
UNFOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AS COPIOUS MOISTURE IS
DRIVEN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH. IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE PRIMARY
COASTAL FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIDE DISPARITY IN
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND THERMALLY DRIVEN
VERTICAL MOTIONS LEADING TO A 75-100 NM BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PCPN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
INTO THIS EVENING...THIS PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. SOME REPORTS OF -FZRA OCCURRING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VT ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS PCPN AND STILL
EXPECT SOME LIGHT ICING CONCERNS IN THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THEREAFTER HAVE OFFERED MAINLY A RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO AS
LARGE-SCALE WARM THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WILL BE COMING TO AN
END BY THAT POINT. HOWEVER...THOSE THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWER
TO MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE PROBLEMATICAL IN THE SENSE OF
PREDICTING EXACT TIMING OF RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER AND TOTAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...USED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND FOR
QPF...AND MOST RECENT RAP THERMAL PROFILES TO LARGELY GOVERN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/NRN VT
(5-11 INCHES)...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE VT VALLEYS (2-6 INCHES)
AND ACROSS NRN NY (1-4 INCHES) WHICH WILL BE TOO FAR WEST TO
EXPERIENCE HEAVIER FGEN/QPF. I WILL NOTE THAT MOST RECENT TRENDS
IN THE NEAR- TERM HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRIMARY PCPN SHIELD IS
TENDING TO SHIFT A TAD FURTHER EAST THAN CURRENT FORECAST. IF THIS
PANS OUT...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN VT MAY BE A TAD LESS
THAN CURRENT FORECASTS. TIME WILL TELL HOWEVER...AND ALL
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THIS PACKAGE.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BY MONDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EST SUNDAY...LINGERING/WRAP-AROUND LIGHT SNOWS
AND/OR SHSN THEN FADE WITH TIME DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS QUICKLY NORTH AND EAST FROM THE AREA. MODEST
COLD THERMAL ADVECTION ON WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK AND IN MOST LOCALES NEAR STEADY VALUES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED. ANY LINGERING MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD TEND TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS.

THEREAFTER...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES BUILDS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION AND WILL SET UP SHOP FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THUS GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE OFFERED WITH
SEASONABLY COLD MID-WINTER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE
OF DAYS FCST WITH REGARDS TO LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WHICH
FEATURES BLW NORMAL CHCS FOR PRECIP AND SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL TEMPS.
ALL LONG TERM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF AND 00Z
ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTS MEAN MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH OUR CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE NORTHERN JET. THE BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS WL COME ALONG SAT
INTO SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM. LATEST PROGS SHOW THIS SYSTEM TRACKING ACRS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA BY NEXT SUNDAY...WHICH PLACES
OUR CWA IN THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLW AND IMPACTS OF SHADOWING OFF
THE DACKS ACRS THE CPV. IN ADDITION...BEST RH PROGS AND ULVL
SUPPORT WL BE MAINLY NORTH OF OUR FA...SUPPORTING ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. OTHERWISE...DRY FCST
EXPECTED FROM WEDS UNTIL SATURDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE -5F TO +5F
COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR 10F CPV...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO
MID 20S. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 30F CPV.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH REDUCTIONS TO
IFR OR LOWER AND SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION NOW
OVERSPREADING TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN...HOWEVER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING AT SOME
LOCATIONS...SO RAIN MAY FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH GROUND...LEADING TO
A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE. RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITH
VFR/MVFR DEGRADING TO IFR/LIFR...ESPECIALLY 02Z-08Z. HEAVIEST SNOW
AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR AT MPV...LEAST AT MSS. LINGERING
MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED TERRAIN-DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY WITH A VARIETY OF FLIGHT
CATEGORIES...GREATEST IMPACTS AT MOUNTAIN SITES (MPV/SLK)...LEAST
AT VALLEY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END...WITH MAINLY
VFR/MVFR.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

.HYDROLOGY...
A QUICK MOVING AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
SPREAD A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA TONIGHT. A SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR REGION...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM A COUPLE TENTHS SLV/NORTHERN DACKS TO 0.75 AND 1.50
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS BY 12Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE
VERY INTENSE RATE OF PRECIP ANTICIPATED AND SOME OF THIS FALLING IN
THE FORM OF RAIN...SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON LOCAL
STREAMS AND RIVERS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW BREAK UP ICE JAMS.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS THE SMALLER STREAMS AND
RIVERS OF ADDISON...RUTLAND....WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. NO WIDESPREAD OR LARGE SCALE FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED ATTM...ONLY MINOR IF ANY AT ALL.

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1259 PM EST SUNDAY...THERE HAVE BEEN NO AUTOMATED SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT THE ADIRONDACK AIRPORT/SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) SINCE
EARLY THIS MORNING. INTERMITTENT POWER OUTAGES AT THE SLK ASOS IS
THE SUSPECTED CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE. THE FAA AND ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE OUTAGE AND ARE WORKING TO RESTORE
OBSERVATIONS AT SARANAC LAKE, BUT NO ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE
IS KNOWN AT THIS TIME.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ001-005-
009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ002>004-
006>008-016>018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
HYDROLOGY...TABER
EQUIPMENT...LOCONTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

329 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER TROF
AXIS THAT IS NOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...NEARLY
STATIONARY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KY/VA IS NOT
PROGGED TO MAKE ANY FURTHER PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BEFORE THE PARENT
HIGH PRESSURE EJECTS OUT TO SEA. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AN UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE
AND FRONT WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING EAST WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
UPGLIDE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPS. THE FCST
FOR SATURDAY WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING WITH NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...SFC FLOW WILL VEER SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MOISTURE TO ADVECT
INLAND ACROSS THE LOW COUNTRY WHILE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVES ALONG THE GULF COASTLINE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
FEATURES AND ABOVE MENTIONED INCREASING LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE WILL LEAD
TO MENTIONABLE POPS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THUS THE FCST FEATURES LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE I77 CORRIDOR FOR THE ENCROACHING
COASTAL MOISTURE FLUX WHILE ANOTHER SWATH OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE
INDUCED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH ELEVATION
PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS. DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE DEPTH...NOT EXPECTING
ICE NUCLEI TO BECOME ACTIVE AT ANYTIME BEFORE 12Z THUS OPTED FOR FZ
RA/DZ FOR A FEW HOURS. QPF REMAINS REALLY LOW THEREFORE FCST DOES
NOT FEATURE ANY ICE ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE ON SUNDAY
REMAINS THE FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE SHORT RANGE. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE BEST FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL PLAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST RIGHT AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THAT LEAVES US WITH A
DEVELOPING NW FLOW EVENT THAT DEVELOPS IMMEDIATELY UPON THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORT WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE
ARRIVED UNTIL AFTER THE WAVE AXIS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE MTNS...SO WE
MIGHT YET ONLY HAVE A LIGHT RAIN...WITH A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
SOME OF THE DEEPER MTN VALLEYS WHERE COLD AIR WOULD BE TRAPPED.
PRECIP TYPES WOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW AFTER ABOUT 15Z AS
COLDER AIR COMES IN AND PROFILES ARE SATURATED HIGH ENOUGH TO
ACTIVATE ICE NUCLEI. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW LONG THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A COMPROMISE WAS
MADE BETWEEN THE LONGER DURATION GFS AND THE QUICKER DRYING SEEN ON
THE NAM/ECMWF. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET. A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND SHOULD
CROSS OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FOR
TUESDAY. THAT WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AND THEN OFF THE SE COAST ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE AFEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME AGREEMENT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS TO THE EFFECTS OF THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF
WAVES...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THAT. THE MODELS SHOW
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE LATE TUESDAY AND THEN TAKE THE SHORT
WAVE PAST TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT SHOULD HELP TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE BACK UP AGAINST THE W SIDE OF THE MTNS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANOTHER WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR WED NIGHT THAT WILL BRING A
SFC BOUNDARY DOWN AND LAY IT OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A LOW CHC OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THE W SIDE OF
THE MTNS...AND SHOULD KEEP THE AREA E OF THE MTNS DRY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN DROP A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH
THE FRONT WASHING OUT.

WHICH BRINGS US TO THE LATE WEEK PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE
TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SUPPRESS THE NEXT SYSTEM
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...SUCH THAT THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP IN THE
NEW ECMWF REMAINS TO THE S OF THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS EVEN MORE SUPPRESSED...TO THE POINT
WHERE IT DOES NOT EVEN DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPSHOT IS THAT BOTH OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS DRY
UP ANY LIGHT PRECIP ON THE W SLOPES OF THE MTNS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN LEAVE US BEREFT OF PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
ONGOING FCST HAD A MID-RANGE CHC OF SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS AND NRN
TIER OF ZONES. WILL CUT THE POP IN HALF AS A START...AND WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ONLY BECAUSE IT SEEMS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS MIGHT HAVE OVERREACTED A BIT AND WILL
EVENTUALLY PULL THE SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER N. TEMPS WILL BE ADJUSTED
UP A BIT WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE EXTENT OF ANY SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR LEVEL VISB THIS MORNING
AT KCLT AND KAND. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST RECENT HRRR RUN KEEPS VISB AT OR ABOVE
5SM AT BOTH SITES. THAT SAID...KEPT BR IN BOTH TAFS BY WAY OF A
TEMPO FOR EACH SITE. ALL OTHER SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT AMIDST LIGHT/CALM NORTHERLY WINDS. SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS
IN ALOFT LEADING TO FEW/SCT CLOUDS AT ALL SITES. LASTLY...INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SLIDE A PLUME OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 NEAR PERIODS ENDS. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
VEERING SOUTHERLY BY MIDDAY AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES PREVAILS THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. PRECIP AND CIG CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY ACRS THE MTNS. BEYOND THAT
FCST REMAINS DRY INTO MIDWEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z 02-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 70%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 70%
KAND MED 66% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 70%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

1222 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THORUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST SATURDAY...NICE CALM/COOL/CLEAR NIGHT IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONTINUES TO YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH
A FEW HIGH ELEVATIONS SITES BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER. CURRENT FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE ASIDE FOR MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMEPRATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 930 PM EST FRIDAY...AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS OF THE EAST
COAST..WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE WAS ALONG THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVES
MOVING BETWEEN THE TWO WERE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
TX...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY UPSTREAM IN THE NW. A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM CAPE COD TO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED NO
CLOUD COVER BETWEEN WV AND THE GULF STATES.

WITH A DRY AIR MASS...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL TAKE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
EVEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL TO A
FEW SPOTS.

THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THRU THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PATTERN BRIEFLY LOOKS CAD-
LIKE BUT CANNOT GET LOCKED IN DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THAT TROUGH. THE
LLVL FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SE BY MIDDAY USHERING IN WEAK WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SC COAST. SOME CLOUDINESS MAY WORK
INTO THE PIEDMONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 LATE IN THE DAY...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY. WITHOUT DOWNSLOPING...TEMPS
ARE NOT LIKELY TO RISE QUITE AS WARM...BUT SHOULD BE A COUPLE
DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE OTHER HALF WHERE THE RETURN FLOW WILL
HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST FRI...A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN APPROACHING TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...THE NOSE OF A SHALLOW
HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS...WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. ISOLD TO SCT
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST WITH THE UPPER
FEATURES AND ALSO OVER THE EXTREME E NEARER THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE WRN MTNS
EARLY. THE TRAILING MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIKELY IN THE
12Z TO 18Z PERIOD. ANTICIPATE THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE IN THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...WHILE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE LIMITED UNDER THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR AREA. SOME VERY LIGHT NW FLOW SNOW ACCUMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ALSO EXPECT
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT POST FROPA IN THE COLD
ADVECTION. WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS THE 850 MB JET BRIEFLY APPROACHES 45 TO 50 KT.

SHALLOW UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ON MONDAY. EXPECT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME WARMING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
GRADUALLY SHUT OFF AND INSOLATION IS STRONG.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST...THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE SOLUTIONS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL DIG SE THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST MON NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ON
TUE. ONLY A CHANNELED PORTION OF THE BETTER VORTICITY WITH THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NRN TIER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...BUT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE WARRANTING ONLY WRN MTN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES INTO WED.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SWD TO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY
THU...WITH BELOW CLIMO TEMPS SETTING UP LATE WEEK.

MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE ANTICIPATED LATE
WEEK SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES THE TREND OF FEATURING A MORE
ACTIVE NRN STREAM WAVE ARRIVING THU NIGHT/FRI...WHILE THE
INTERESTING SRN STREAM WAVE ALONG THE WRN GULF COAST GETS DAMPENED.
THERE IS SOME SFC REFLECTION ALONG THE GULF COASTAL STALLED
BOUNDARY...BUT THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOW COMPLETELY DRY ON
FRIDAY WITH THE MOISTURE SHUNTED SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE GEFS MEAN IS
RATHER WET COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS MEMBER...AND THE 12Z
ECMWF SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH N OF THE
DEVELOPING NRN GULF OF MEXICO LOW. ALL TOLD...HIGH UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS...AND NOTHING BETTER THAN LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
CAN BE FEATURED...WITH A CONSENSUS RAIN/SNOW LINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE HEART OF THE GSP FORECAST AREA.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR LEVEL VISB THIS MORNING
AT KCLT AND KAND. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST RECENT HRRR RUN KEEPS VISB AT OR ABOVE
5SM AT BOTH SITES. THAT SAID...KEPT BR IN BOTH TAFS BY WAY OF A
TEMPO FOR EACH SITE. ALL OTHER SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT AMIDST LIGHT/CALM NORTHERLY WINDS. SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS
IN ALOFT LEADING TO FEW/SCT CLOUDS AT ALL SITES. LASTLY...INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SLIDE A PLUME OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 NEAR PERIODS ENDS. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
VEERING SOUTHERLY BY MIDDAY AT ALL SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% MED 71% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 66% LOW 32% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% LOW 57% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% MED 75% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 66% LOW 57% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 66% MED 71% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CDG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

1012 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

.UPDATE...
MOST OF THE ECHOES ON RADAR ARE NOT CURRENTLY REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER OTHER THAN BEING AN HOUR TOO SLOW THE RUC IS RIGHT ON
TRACK WITH RECOGNIZING AN ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS EDMUNDS/MCPHERSON COUNTIES. THIS PRECIP IS ALL
FREEZING RAIN AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE RAPIDLY RISING TO ABOVE FREEZING BEHIND
THESE ENHANCED ECHOES. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND
BRIEF BEFORE ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN. THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WITH
EVEN SOME AREAS OF FOG STILL LINGERING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THIS EVENING YET BEFORE THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...HAVE KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE FAR EAST
AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF FOG. HI RES MODELS STILL INDICATING SOME
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA SO
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 20/30 POPS IN THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE THERMAL
PROFILES...A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS NICELY WITH A CORE OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS AT 850 MB
RIGHT OVER THE CWA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW PRETTY DECENT POTENTIAL
FOR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS SO HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY
FOR TOMORROW. ITS SPLIT UP TO START ACROSS CENTRAL SD AT
12Z...WITH STRONGER WINDS PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ALREADY BE SUBSIDING A BIT ACROSS
CENTRAL SD. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ON SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS. IF
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN AREAS...VSBY
WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES.

SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE A QUIETER DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE OR UPPER SUPPORT. ANOTHER LOW WILL DROP FROM CANADA OVER
MINNESOTA WITH THE STRONGER WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A BOUNDARY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AFTER THE
LONG TERM PERIOD ENDS...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A SMALL POP FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN MID WEEK WITH MID 20S TO LOWER
30S FOR HIGHS BEFORE A BIT OF A REBOUND BACK TO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S ON FRIDAY.

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST. LOOK
FOR WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND INCREASE
INTO THE 20 TO 35 KNOT RANGE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. A MIX OF PRECIP
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. EARLY MORNING PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
SNOW NEAR KATY WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBY IN BLSN BEFORE MIXING WITH
RAIN BY AFTERNOON.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TO 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/
SATURDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-
POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-
DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM CST SATURDAY FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR BIG STONE-
TRAVERSE.

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

VISIT...

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

305 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH SUNDAY IS ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...A MID LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS DIGGING TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA WITH A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW EXTENDS SOUTH TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTH OF IT THROUGH NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS
OCCURRING IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH WHERE LIFT/MOISTURE IS DEEPER. THE QUESTION
IS WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP HAVE SHOWN THAT THE MOISTURE/LIFT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH SOUTH OF CLARK AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AM NOT EXPECTING
DRIZZLE TO BE AN ISSUE BECAUSE WHERE THERE IS LIFT...THE MOISTURE
GETS DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THAT
FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH ANY GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK ALREADY INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER IN WESTERN TO
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE CORE OF THE TROUGH/LOW WILL BE
CLOSER.

WHILE WE LIKELY WILL NOT HIT 40 AGAIN TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP MUCH BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH THE MAIN POOL OF COLDER
850MB TRACKING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

THE NEXT FEATURE TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT IS
ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT DROPS DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE FIRST ROUND FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW APPEARS TO COME IN ON MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THOUGH TRENDS FROM ALL OF THE GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE
17.12Z GFS SEEM TO BE TAKING THIS BELT OF LIFT FROM WARM AIR
ADVECTION FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THE 17.12Z ECMWF HAS A UNIQUE
SOLUTION WITH BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA WITH AN
850MB TROUGH. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW APPEAR TO COME
IN ON TUESDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THERMAL PROFILES
LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING ALL SNOW
BUT FORCING LOOKS WEAK SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. BEYOND THAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THOUGH THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY ON THE MILD SIDE. A
COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE POTENTIALLY OUT THERE AS WELL THOUGH
TIMING/TRACK IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN MN DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. FRONT PASSING KRST RIGHT AT 18Z AND KLSE
SHORTLY. WARM TEMPS AND MID CLOUD AHEAD OF FRONT WITH MVFR CLOUD
BEHIND. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT AS WELL...GUSTING UP CLOSE
TO 30 KTS FOR KRST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
BUT CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. MODELS DO SUGGEST CLEARING PRIOR TO SUNRISE...IN
THE 10Z ...BUT PREFERRED TO PLAY IT A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC...ESPECIALLY AT KLSE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...MW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1135 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT STALLED OUT JUST NORTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR EARLIER THIS EVENING IS NOW LIFTING NORTH AND EAST. CLEAR
SKIES EXIST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AIDED BY A 40 TO 50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET ADVECTING A VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO
SOUTHERN WI (SEE 17.00Z DVN/OAX SOUNDINGS). LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL WI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EVENTUALLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE ALOFT. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE LATEST TRENDS.

GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR MASS AND STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...17.01Z RAP/HRRR HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY
ON FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...KEEPING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FARTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MN. AS A RESULT...
REMOVED FOG FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

FINALLY...17.02Z SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FROM 6 TO 8 DEGREES
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI...COMBINED WITH A VERY SHALLOW ELEVATED
MOIST LAYER (SEE 17.00Z GRB SOUNDING)...SHOULD SQUASH ANY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. REMOVED FREEZING DRIZZLE
MENTION NORTH OF I-90. OVERALL...AN UNEVENTFUL NIGHT WEATHER-WISE
WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MT/IDAHO WILL
BRING SOME SENSIBLE WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG TROUGH ENERGY IN TWO
PARTS...OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL MT-CANADA BORDER AND SECOND PIECE
OVER SRN IDAHO. TWO FRONTS IN THE REGION CAUSING A BIT MORE
CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD/FOG FORECAST TONIGHT. OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY KMKT-KMSN ROUGHLY WITH
COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND CLEARLY MARKED BY
OVERCAST SKIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF IT. SECONDARY FRONT IS ACROSS
SRN IA WITH WARM SECTOR SOUTHWEST WINDS IN A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S /NO SNOW COVER THERE/.

AS THE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE. MOST OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL GO INTO WARMING AND NOT LIFT...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING 5F. THE WEAK LIFT OF 1-3UB/S WILL BE LOCATED
A BIT INTO THE LOWER BASED SATURATED LAYER FOR DZ/FZDZ POTENTIAL
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN FRONT...NEAR AND NORTH OF I-94.
NCEP MODELS SUGGEST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT DEEP SATURATION...THIS WOULD BE A
LIQUID LAYER AND FZDZ. HOWEVER...THE MODEL MOISTURE DEPTH IS
LESSENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT /PER NCEP MODEL SOUNDINGS/ AND
NEAR OR LESS THAN 1KM. THIS SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION GENERATION FROM
THIS LAYER LESS PROBABLE. THUS...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FZDZ IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH MINOR PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED FROM THE MODELS...DIDNT FEEL CONFIDENT IT COULD BE
GENERATED.

ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE 4-5F RIGHT NOW AND AN INVERTED TEMPERATURE PROFILE...SOME
SNOW MELT TODAY...SO AM CONCERNED WITH MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. WITH
CLEAR SKIES...THINKING THERE COULD BE SOME EVENING FOG FORMATION
IN THE COOLING AFTER SUNDOWN. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT OF
HIGHER AND VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES WOULD TEND TO ADVECT THAT FOG NORTH OR DIMINISH IT. THE
INVERSION IS ALSO STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION
/VERSUS LIFT/. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASING TREND
WITH FOG /HRRR AND RAP RUNS/ AND LATEST 16.15Z SREF IS SLIGHTLY
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH A LARGE 1 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY AREA OVER
SWRN WI-SERN MN. BUT MODELS ARE ALSO BIASED TOWARD SNOW PACK
FOG...ESPECIALLY THE SREF...AS THE FOG FOOTPRINT MATCHES THE SNOW
DEPTH CLOSELY. A CHALLENGE TO KNOW HOW THAT AREA WILL BEHAVE FOR
FOG BUT HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
DENSE FOG.

QG FORCING SUGGESTS THE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT WILL SPLIT THE
FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. KEPT SMALL CHANCES OF
DZ/FZDZ/SN- NORTH OF I-90 SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MISS RIVER. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD CARRY
INTO THE EVENING BASED ON A MIXED-BOUNDARY LAYER AND 0-1KM LAPSE
RATES OVER 8C/KM AND 30-35 KTS AT 1 KM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

OVERALL A NO/LOW IMPACT WEATHER PERIOD IT SEEMS. ANOTHER SYSTEM
FOR MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ANOTHER WARM UP AND COOL DOWN AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EVENT. OVERALL A TREND IS TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

SOME LOW STRATUS HAS REDEVELOPED IN CLEARING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT...IMPACTING KLSE. THIS IS NOT HANDLED WELL IN LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE...BUT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. OTHERWISE...MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT AGL WILL QUICKLY
OVERTAKE THE UPPER MI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT STILL
FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS TAF AIRFIELDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING/
EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE
PRIMARY IMPACT BEING A RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND INCREASED WESTERLY WIND WITH MAXIMUM
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...ROGERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

420 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MAINE WILL BUFFET THE AREA WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY.
A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT SPAWN A FEW MORE
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE FROM HUDSON BAY WILL BUILD DOWN
INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES BUT
DRY WEATHER. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MIGHT BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NUISANCE
SNOW TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EST...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD JUST CROSSED THROUGH
MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IN IT WAKE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE HAS
KICKED IN. INITIALLY THE AIR IS NOT THAT COLD. IN FACT...THE
TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY ROSE TO 37 DEGREES. UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY COLDER BUT NOT THAT MUCH.

EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
AREAS OF BLACK TO FORM ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...THANKS TO A COLD
GROUND. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN. MOST AREAS OF BLACK ICE WILL LIKELY MELT OR SUBLIMATE
LATER THIS MORNING.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE...ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...BERKSHIRES AND PERHAPS EVEN THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS.
SNOWFALL WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE 1-3 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE GREENS...CLOSER TO AN
INCH OTHER UPSLOPE AREAS. VALLEY AREAS WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING
AND ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNNY BREAKS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR...EVIDENT NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER
WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS OUR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
COULD PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT IT LOOKS DIFFUSE ENOUGH
AND LACKING ANY GOOD VERTICAL STABILITY TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWER CONVECTION (OR ANY SNOW SQUALLS). THE HRRR DOES NOT INDICATE
ANY ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM SO IT WILL LIKELY JUST BRING A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PATCHY CLOUDS AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS
PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THIS FEATURE THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY DROP
ONCE AGAIN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BE
MORE ANTICYCLONIC (AS OPPOSED TO CYCLONIC) AND COLUMN LOOKS VERY
DRY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF ONTARIO WOULD
FRAGMENTED AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. AS THE HIGH BUILD INTO OUR REGION...THE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LOWER...AND BY LATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT MOST OF IF NOT ALL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CEASE.
THIS WILL LEAVE US WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. A RESIDUAL
BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT LOWS WILL
NEVERTHELESS BE AROUND 20 NEAR POUGHKEEPSIE...TEENS MOST AREAS NEAR
AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK
WITH A FEW PLACES HOVERING AROUND ZERO.

TUESDAY WILL BE A MAINLY SUNNY BRISK COLD DAY AS A SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR MASS IS FULLY ENTRENCHED INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE ALL THAT MUCH...TOPPING OUT
AROUND 30 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...MID TO
UPPER 20S FURTHER NORTH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION (INCLUDING
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS)...TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
BE THE REALLY COLD NIGHT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 10 MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...SINGLE NUMBERS CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING
AREAS...ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST...A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. EARLIER GUIDANCE SUPPRESSED
THIS SYSTEM MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF TRENDED
FURTHER NORTH WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEPT ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED IT SOUTH.
THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS IN THE MIDDLE.

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE ACTUAL LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT SOME MODELS DO...IS TAKE A PIECE OF
NORTHERN ENERGY...ENOUGH OF AN EASTERLY FLOW...WHICH INTERACTS WITH
THE LOW TO THE SOUTH TO PRODUCE A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...INTO MUCH OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...WE
BROUGHT LOW CHANCES TO THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT CHANCES FURTHER
NORTH. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM WERE TO DIRECTLY HIT US...WE ARE LOOKING
AT NO MORE THAN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE CONTINUED AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD AND FAIRLY WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE. HOWEVER...TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE SOME SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY/MOISTURE BECOMES INFUSED WITH SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ONE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE REGION WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THU MORNING...AND THE DAY
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO 10 TO 15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 5 AND
15 ABOVE.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND.
IT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN POPS OF 20
TO 45 PERCENT ARE FORECAST. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...THERE WILL BE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT...SO
TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NE THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION. CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU HAVE BECOME VFR...WHILE VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS PERSIST AT
KGFL...AND IFR CIGS AT KPSF. WILL FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU FOR THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY WITH MAINLY OVC
CIGS AT AROUND 4500-5000 FEET...WITH ONLY A TEMP GROUP FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z THIS MORNING. AT KGFL...THE VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AROUND 08Z...THEN IMPROVING TO
MAINLY MVFR BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z...THEN VFR AFTER 10Z. OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AND POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST AT KPSF
THROUGH AROUND 09Z...THEN MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS THROUGH 15Z...THEN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 15-18 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT KALB/KPSF. DURING MONDAY MORNING THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO
14 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 24 KTS. DURING MONDAY EVENING WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KTS AT KGFL/KPOU...BUT CONTINUE GUSTING TO
AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF OVER AN INCH FELL ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS (EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY) ON SUNDAY. THIS RESULTED IN ONE POINT ON THE THE
STILL RIVER (BROOKFIELD) GOING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE (JUST MINOR
FLOODING). MANY OTHER SPOTS IN THE HOUSATONIC REACHED ACTION STAGE.

THE RAIN IS OVER AND ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF WILL END LATER TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY DIP TO OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT TURNS A LOT
COLDER WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN THE RIVERS MAKE MORE ICE.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM...INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM...MIGHT PRODUCE A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MORE RAIN STORMS ARE SEEN ANYTIME SOON. IT LOOKS TO STAY QUITE
COLD THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS POCATELLO ID

249 AM MST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR MAIN STORM FROM
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM EASTERN IDAHO. IN ITS WAKE
THIS MORNING...WE SOME LINGERING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WE`VE ALSO
SEEN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND NORTHEAST TOWARD ISLAND PARK. WE SHOULD SEE THIS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...BUT THINNING OUT A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON OR THAT IS AT LEAST OUR CURRENT THOUGHTS. IF IT`S
ANYTHING LIKE OUR LAST BOUT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THIS ELEMENT
WILL REQUIRE MORE FREQUENT UPDATES AND FINESSING. WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THERE COULD
BE A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR MANY AREAS WE MAY HAVE ALREADY SEEN OUR HIGHS
TODAY. IN OTHERS WE WILL SEE A SMALL FLUCTUATION BETWEEN WHERE
WE BOTTOM OUT THIS MORNING AND WHAT HAPPENS THIS AFTERNOON.

WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE DRIER CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL KEEP
SHOWERS GOING MAINLY ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WITH A WEAKENING TREND DURING THE DAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE
MORE CLOUDS INCLUDING STRATUS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. WE DIDN`T GO
GUNG HO FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH THOSE WEAK
DISTURBANCES WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...AS WE COULD SEE THINGS NOT
MATERIALIZE. WE DID INCLUDE PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN SIMILAR AREAS.
IT LOOKS LIKE THAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...INVERSIONS DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP TRAP MOISTURE IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WE GRADUALLY INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF STRATUS FOR THE
SNAKE PLAIN...BEAR LAKE...THE CACHE VALLEY AND ALSO ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 75 CORRIDOR FROM CHALLIS TO STANLEY. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT
SOME FREEZING FOG IN THOSE AREAS...BUT FOR NOW WE DIDN`T GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY. WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST AS WE GET A BETTER IDEA ON WHERE IT FORMS. KEYES

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A RIDGE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY
WHICH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS INLAND TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. ALL THE WHILE OCCASIONAL WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCES TOP
THE RIDGE AND DIVE SE THROUGH MONTANA PROVIDING THE MONTANA AND
WYOMING DIVIDE REGIONS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOWFALL. VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE INVERSIONS WHICH HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW
MEX STATISTICAL VALUES AND CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HUSTON

.AVIATION...ARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS HIGHLIGHTING A
FAIRLY STIFF WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH TWO EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES...ONE APPROACHING THE SEATTLE COAST AND THE OTHER OFF
THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL ADVECT EAST THROUGH
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY PROVIDING SOME MODEST
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN MOUNTAINS WHILE
THE TERMINALS REMAIN LARGELY UNSCATHED. THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF A NARROW BAND OF LIFR STRATUS
CURRENTLY SLICING EAST THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN INTO KIDA AND
EXPANDING NE ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER HIGHLANDS (ISLAND PARK
REGION). THE ONLY MODEL THAT APPEARED TO CAPTURE THIS ELEMENT WAS
THE HRRR WHICH SHOWED DISSIPATING CONDITIONS WEST OF KIDA LATE THIS
MORNING WHILE LIFR/IFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND PARK REGION.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWED A RETURN OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS AT KPIH
AND KIDA OVERNIGHT WHILE KSUN AND KBYI REMAINED VFR. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY. HUSTON

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

337 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...
333 AM CST

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG/POSSIBLY FREEZING...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS TRENDS
TODAY...AND THEN POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS SURFACE TROUGH AND BOUNDARY REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTH.
STRATUS WHICH APPEARED TO BE MORE PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA HAS SINCE SHIFTED TO THE EAST WITH ONLY FEW/SCT HIGH
CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THESE CLEARER
SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE...PATCHY FOG
HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AND HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH
REGARD TO PREVAILING VISIBILITY...THIS FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE
VISIBILITY BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. THIS LOWER VIS AND THE
RAPID CHANGES LIKELY BEING OBSERVED HAVE INITIALLY BEEN THE MAIN
CONCERN AS THE WARMER TEMPS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE ALLOWED
SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. NONETHELESS...AIR TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING HAVE PROVIDED
SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING FOG AND POSSIBLE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS...AND
SO HAVE MADE MENTION IN A NOW. THESE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS WITH THE
PATCHY AND HIGHLY VARYING FOG WILL LIKELY HELP TO LIMIT OVERALL
SLICK CONDITIONS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS/OBSERVATIONS
BEFORE THIS FOG DISSIPATES CLOSER TO MID MORNING.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WITH ANOTHER MILD DAY
EXPECTED...AS HIGHS REACH AROUND 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOW TO
MID 40S LIKELY MORE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. APPROACHING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE CWA BUT DO ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE MORE TOWARDS MID DAY
AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL THEN BECOME PARTLY SUNNY TO CLOUDY
INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...AS THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
REFLECTION DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ANY DEVELOPING PRECIP
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LAKE. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
SMALLER AREA OF PRECIP TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH IOWA AND THEN INTO
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. WITH THIS APPEARING TO BE
A LIKELY SCENARIO DID MAKE MENTION OF SCATTERED SPRINKLES...WITH
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF LIQUID AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY
NOT BE ANYTHING LONG LASTING AS THIS PRECIP SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN CWA AND WITH SURFACE TEMPS STILL LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THIS TIME...AM NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY ICING AT THIS TIME.

RODRIGUEZ

.LONG TERM...
333 AM CST

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHORT WAVE AMPLITUDE IMPULSES TO PASS
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE WILL GRADUALLY DRAG
LOW-LEVEL COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH THOUGH NOTHING TOO ROBUST
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY PRECIP CHANCES
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE PROFILES VERY MARGINAL FOR ANY SNOW IF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CAN MATERIALIZE. HIGHS LOOK TO PEAK INTO THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

THE STRONGEST SIGNAL OF A PV ANOMALY AND HEIGHT FALLS IN MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA SEEING
LIGHT SNOWFALL DURING THAT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING PERIOD...HOWEVER DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND SPECIFIC
TIME OF SNOW IN THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE LIMIT THE ABILITY TO RAISE
POPS TOO MUCH. GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT WEAK PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME INTO
THIS SYSTEM AND THE LIMITED SIGNALS OF MESOSCALE FORCING...ANY
SNOWFALL IS FAVORED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT. DO HAVE MINOR ACCUMS
FORECAST OF MAINLY AT OR UNDER HALF INCH BROAD BRUSHED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LOOK
TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
CANADA BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH RIDGE WEST AND TROUGH EAST. A
SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THAT AMPLIFYING PATTERN
LOOKS TO BRING A PERIOD OF POSSIBLE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES DURING OR AROUND FRIDAY. THE
AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST TO EXPAND INTO THE U.S. AND BRING
COLDER AIR...POSSIBLY MUCH COLDER...INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THOUGH THAT LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN HOW ACTIVE THIS PATTERN
IS OVER THE AREA WITHIN THAT TIME AND HOW SHARP OF COLD AIR PUNCH
OCCURS.

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* VARYING WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
REMAINING UNDER 10 KT.

* MVFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ORD.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS RIDGE AXIS CENTERED
ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE NORTH. NO REAL ISSUES ANTICIPATED WITH APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...ONLY WITH A VARYING WIND DIRECTION BUT
WITH SPEEDS STILL STAYING UNDER 10 KT. SOUTHWARD MOVING VFR
CEILINGS DO APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL MOVE MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME
THIS MORNING AND HAVE EXCLUDED ANY MENTION OF CEILINGS. EXPECT
ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY BUT WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE FALLING TO
MVFR BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. -SHSN OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS PROBABLE. CHANCE OF -SHSN/FLURRIES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR. LIMITED PRECIP THREAT.

IZZI

.MARINE...
252 AM CST

A COLD FRONT HAD PROGRESSED DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THOUGH EARLY THIS MORNING THIS IS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. LOW PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY TRACK ALONG
THIS OLD BOUNDARY PASSING NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY...THOUGH A SOMEWHAT MINIMAL GRADIENT SHOULD
KEEP WIND GUSTS ONLY AROUND 15 KT. OVERALL THE MIDWEEK PATTERN
FAVORS A LOW IMPACT TIME OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAM BUCKLE. AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS SYSTEM /FRIDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY/...WINDS LOOK TO BE THE STRONGEST WITHIN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...RIGHT NOW APPEARING TO BE AROUND 30 KT.

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
314 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

Aside from a few high/thin cirrus clouds streaming across the area,
skies are mostly clear across central Illinois early this morning.
Due to the clear skies, light winds, and ample surface-based
moisture in place, have been closely monitoring the potential for
fog development. Despite temp/dewpoint spreads that have dropped to
between 0 and 3 degrees, visibilities have thus far remained
unobstructed at all ob sites. HRRR continues to suggest a rapid
decrease in visby over the next couple of hours across mainly the
N/NE KILX CWA: however, its solution has proven wrong throughout the
night up to this point. Am seeing quite a bit of fog developing
further north from northern Illinois into north-central Indiana and
will continue to monitor obs to see if this can develop further
south. At this point, think the HRRR is way overdone and will only
include patchy fog in the forecast this morning. Once any fog
dissipates, mostly sunny skies will prevail through early afternoon
before clouds begin to increase from the northwest ahead of a
weak short-wave trough noted on water vapor imagery over North
Dakota. NAM/GFS/ECMWF all try to spit out some light QPF in
advance of this feature across southern Iowa/northern Missouri
late this afternoon. An examination of time-height cross-sections
reveals some decent mid-level lift, but only limited moisture
above 5000ft. Have opted to include a chance for sprinkles across
the Illinois River Valley late this afternoon accordingly. Will
be another mild day, with highs once again reaching the middle to
upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

The extended forecast continues to feature rather benign weather
conditions for mid and late January, with no major storm systems or
invasions of cold air through early next week. The main challenge
will be timing numerous weak short-waves, as they gradually carve
out a significant trough across the eastern CONUS.

Wave number one will skirt through the southern Great Lakes tonight,
bringing clouds and perhaps a few sprinkles to the northern half of
the CWA this evening. After another mild/dry day on Tuesday, wave
number two is still on target for Tuesday night into Wednesday. As
has been the case with the past several model runs, the 00z Jan 19
suite focuses the best lift/deepest moisture mainly across northern
Illinois. As such, highest PoPs will remain along/north of the I-72
corridor. Surface temps will initially be warm enough for light
rain Tuesday evening, but will cool sufficiently to allow the rain
to mix with or change to snow overnight. QPF is expected to remain
quite light, with only a dusting to maybe a couple tenths of an inch
of snow expected along and north of a Peoria to Bloomington line.

Further out, model solutions begin to diverge, leading to a low
confidence forecast beyond Wednesday. It still appears the dominant
weather feature later this week will be a strong southern stream
wave that will bring heavy rainfall to the Gulf Coast Thursday into
Friday. Further north, a much weaker wave may pass through the
southern Great Lakes on Thursday, so have included slight chance
PoPs across the north accordingly.

After that, big run-to-run swings have been seen with the potential
system late in the weekend. The GFS continues to show a strong
short-wave diving southward into the area, bringing the chance for
accumulating snow Sunday into Sunday night. Meanwhile, the ECMWF
which had previously shown this as well, now brings a much weaker
wave through the area on Saturday and shows dry weather for Sunday.
Due to the large discrepancies, have not made many changes to the
going forecast next weekend. Will therefore continue to feature dry
conditions on Saturday, followed by a chance for snow Sunday/Sunday
night.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

Weak high pressure will be in the vicinity of the central Illinois
terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. This will help keep
winds light/variable for the most part, although there will be a
gradual trend toward southerly winds by late in the period as the
high pressure ridge begins to pull away. Aside from some MVFR fog
that is expected to develop late tonight/Monday morning, VFR
conditions will prevail. Mostly clear skies initially will see an
increase in clouds (still VFR). The clouds are expected to
gradually thicken/lower later Monday afternoon into Monday evening
as an upper level wave approaches the region.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1203 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...
219 PM CST

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MOST PROMINENT FORECAST FEATURES ARE RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE NEAR TERM...AND PESKY SERIES OF PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

RATZER

.LONG TERM...
219 PM CST

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* VARYING WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
REMAINING UNDER 10 KT.

* MVFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ORD.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. -SHSN OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS PROBABLE. CHANCE OF -SHSN/FLURRIES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR. LIMITED PRECIP THREAT.

IZZI

.MARINE...
248 PM CST

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1146 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

Skies are and should remain mostly clear, and light winds will
persist as well. These are good radiational cooling conditions and
could be supportive of fog development. The latest surface
observations across the area have fairly small temperature/dew
point spreads, generally not more than a few degrees, also
potentially supportive of fog. However, 00Z sounding at KILX was
pretty dry except for right at the surface. This fact, combined
with the very light winds, may be more supportive of dew and/or
very shallow fog. So, plan to only add patchy fog to the forecast
overnight. Otherwise, only minor forecast tweaks are necessary.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

308 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...THE REGION WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW
ALOFT BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD AND FLAT RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDING INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN U.S. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WERE LOCATED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THROUGH TUESDAY...THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US AND EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF THE US AND THE SHORTWAVES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW CARVING OUT A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A GENERAL
BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND AND A ANOTHER SFC HIGH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. IN
THIS NW FLOW...MODELS TRACK A SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND THIS ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALSO WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT WEAK SHORTWAVES SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AND SOME MID CLOUDS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AS WELL. HOWEVER..DESPITE THE 0Z GFS FORECAST...THE
DRIER HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS THE 0Z NAM AND 0Z ECMWF SEEM TO FIT THE
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL ALSO WILL LIKELY BE ON THE DRIER END OF
GUIDANCE LOOKING AT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND 0Z RAOBS...AND WE OPTED
FOR DEWPOINTS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE IF NOT A LITTLE BELOW
FOR PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY. RECENT DAYS HAVE ENDED UP TOWARD THE
HIGHER END OF MOS GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY ABOVE THE SUPERBLEND FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...SO HIGHS FOR MONDAY WERE TRENDED UP ACROSS THE
BOARD. WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A NORTH AND EAST TO
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT IN GENERAL.

THE PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT OF
THE MODERATE VARIETY TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO MON LEVELS IF
NOT ABOVE ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY BACKED OFF ON THE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT LEAST HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF. THUS...WILL BACK DOWN ON POPS TO 20S
AND 30S. WE MAY END UP DRY...BUT HARD TO IGNORE THE SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS
DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. LATEST ECMWF KEEPS IT TO OUR NORTH...WHILE THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH. IN ANY EVENT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
LOW...AND OPTING TO GO WITH JUST POPS NORTH OF I-64 LATE WEDNESDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WAVE. NOT MUCH COLD AIR OR MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES AT BEST. WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS STRONG RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE REGION AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT MODELS
REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND AND REALLY
HARD TO NARROW DOWN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW. A BLENDED
APPROACHING WOULD BRING IN A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE ONE AND ONLY REAL
GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND IT REALLY DOESN`T EVEN
LOOK THAT GREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A TAD COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL
STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S EACH
DAY...POSSIBLY SEEING SOME 50S BY SATURDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR TO INVADE THE AREA BY
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN NW
FLOW OR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ANY CIGS
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL AVERAGE 5KT OR LESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

645 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...ESPECIALLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

AS OF 645 AM EST...THE SURFACE STORM WAS OVER MAINE THE AND MID
LEVEL UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST. THERE LOOKS TO BE ONE BOUNDARY
TO WORK OVER REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.

RADARS ARE PICKING UP LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THESE WILL BE AROUND AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY
AS WE REMAIN UNDERNEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE SECONDARY
BOUNDARY APPROACHING.

EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE FREEZING IN PLACES...THERE HAVE
BEEN REPORTS OF BLACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...THANKS TO A COLD
GROUND. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN. MOST AREAS OF BLACK ICE WILL LIKELY MELT OR SUBLIMATE LATER
THIS MORNING.

UPSLOPE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF MAINLY THE SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT TO A LESSER
DEGREE...ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...BERKSHIRES AND PERHAPS EVEN THE
NORTHERN CATSKILLS. SNOWFALL WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD LOCALLY
PRODUCE 1-3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
GREENS...CLOSER TO AN INCH OTHER UPSLOPE AREAS. VALLEY AREAS WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING
A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING AND ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNNY BREAKS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR...EVIDENT NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER
WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS OUR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
COULD PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT IT LOOKS DIFFUSE ENOUGH
AND LACKING ANY GOOD VERTICAL STABILITY TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWER CONVECTION (OR ANY SNOW SQUALLS). THE HRRR DOES NOT INDICATE
ANY ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM SO IT WILL LIKELY JUST BRING A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PATCHY CLOUDS AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS
PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FINALLY CONDITIONS HAVE MARKEDLY IMPROVED AT ALL THE TAF SITES. AT
OF 645 AM EST...ONLY KPSF REPORTED MVFR (LOW MVFR CIGS). THESE CIGS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY AT THAT TAF SITE THANKS TO
UPSLOPE SHOWERS (VCSH).

OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FROM HERE ON
IN...ALTHOUGH WE DO HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CIGS AT KGFL AND KALB
THROUGH MIDDAY.

A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ENSUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AVERAGING 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS REACHING 20 OR A LITTLE HIGHER AT BOTH KPSF AND KALB
THROUGH 22Z-24Z.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL ABATE AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

THE RAIN IS OVER AND ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF WILL END LATER TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY DIP TO OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT TURNS A LOT
COLDER WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN THE RIVERS MAKE MORE ICE.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM...INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM...MIGHT PRODUCE A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MORE RAIN STORMS ARE SEEN ANYTIME SOON. IT LOOKS TO STAY QUITE
COLD THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

548 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...
333 AM CST

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG/POSSIBLY FREEZING...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS TRENDS
TODAY...AND THEN POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

.LONG TERM...
333 AM CST

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* VARYING WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
REMAINING UNDER 10 KT.

* LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR ORD.

* MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS...AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OR CALM. EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AS THEY TURN OUT OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION...WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE BEEN MONITORING LAKE EFFECT MVFR CLOUDS DROPPING
SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY AFFECTING FAR
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE POSSIBILITY FOR THESE
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS NEAR THE
LAKE...BUT A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL FOR THIS LOW STRATUS TO
REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH. IF ANY TERMINAL WERE TO SEE A PERIOD OF
LOWER CLOUDS THIS MORNING IT WOULD BE ORD...BUT WOULD EXPECT THIS
PERIOD TO BE BRIEF IF IT WERE TO OCCUR. SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TERMINALS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CEILINGS WITH IT...AS ANY PRECIP STAYS TO THE NORTH. SOME GUIDANCE
HINTING AT SOME RATHER LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT BUT HAVE NOT TRENDED
THAT WAY QUITE YET WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW BECOME POSSIBLE.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.

* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING.

* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
252 AM CST

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
530 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

Except for the possibility of morning fog still developing this
morning, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

HRRR continues to aggressively develop dense fog in the very near
term from KPIA-KCMI northward, however surface observations are
showing very little visibility reduction in this region, with some
MVFR developing far to the NE. Although dewpoint depressions are
generally only 1-3 degrees, forecast soundings are showing this
moisture to be quite shallow, which is likely causing moisture to
frost out on the surface rather than creating fog. Unfortunately,
moisture depth looks sufficiently deep that patchy fog still can`t
be ruled out for the next few hours.

Later in the forecast period, a fast moving shortwave trough will
cross central IL late afternoon through evening bringing some
light rain showers mainly north of KSPI-KDEC. Ceilings look to
remain above MVFR thresholds and little visibility reduction
expected with the light precipitation.

Light winds becoming SE 5-8 kts around 16Z, then shifting to W5-8
kts after 5-8Z.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

654 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON OBSERVATION AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ATTM.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN NW
FLOW OR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA LATE
IN THE PERIOD ARE ANTICIAPTED. ANY CIGS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN IN THE
VFR CATEGORY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

705 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO
THE NE CONUS WITH WNW FLOW UPSTREAM FROM BC AND THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH THE NRN CONUS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO NW MN SUPPORTED
LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
SHRTWV WAS MOVING INTO NRN MONTANA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES FROM
HUDSON BAY INTO NRN ONTARIO WAS BUILDING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES
WITH BACKING/INCREASINGLY ACYC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...NRLY FLOW WITH 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -15C STILL
SUPPORTED LIGHT LES INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE CLOUD LAYER IN THE
DGZ...SUPPORTED HIGHER SLR/FLUFFY SNOW.

EXPECT THAT THE LES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH
MAINLY JUST A FEW LEFTOVER FLURRIES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT/EASTERLY AND INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 3K
FT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND PCPN WITH
THE MONTANA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED 285K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT KEEPING
THE BEST FORCING OVER WI AS THE SHRTWV TRACKS TOWARD THE SRN GREAT
LAKES. SNOW CHANCES SHOULD MOVE IN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND END
OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST PCPN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WI BORDER.
HOWEVER...QPF OF ONLY AROUND 0.05-0.10 IS EXPECTED WITH SNOW AMOUNTS
OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. ONLY CHANCE POPS REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL LEAD
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THESE CLIPPERS
WILL BE BRINGING CANADIAN AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THE COLDEST AIR
WILL REMAIN OVER HUDSON BAY UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK WHEN THE LONG
RANGE MODELS INDICATE IT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THUS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH THE CLIPPERS. BETWEEN THE
CLIPPERS THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT 925/850MB TEMPS ARE FAIRLY MARGINAL AND THE WIND FIELDS
ARE CONSTANTLY FLUCTUATING TO SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS. ALL IN ALL...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR
THE PERIOD.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE LEAVING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...THERE APPEARS
TO BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE 925MB TEMPS AROUND -10C...THERE
WOULD BE SUPPORT FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BUT WIND FIELDS ARE LIGHT
AND HIGHLY VARIABLE (DUE TO THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA)...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE REALLY STARTING TO PICK UP ON THIS MARGINAL
MOISTURE AND ARE STRUGGLING TO SPIT OUT ANY QPF. THUS...WILL
TREND DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY
NIGHT...CONFINING THEM LARGELY TO THE KEWEENAW AND OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED...THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FORCING BELOW THE FAVORED ICE CRYSTAL REGION. BUT...THAT IS
ASSUMING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH LIMITED
CONFIDENCE...WILL ONLY INCLUDE THE FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND HURON MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.

A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LEADING TO WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY BACKING
WESTERLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH.
THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST TROUGH...LARGELY
OVER THE KEWEENAW...BUT THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW WILL BE
WITH THE SECOND WAVE ON THURSDAY (WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO). WILL SHOW LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SNOW (AMOUNTS LIKELY UNDER AN INCH) OVER THE
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES SHAPE AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT (AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH). BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...850MB TEMPS ARE STILL MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AND WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE IN THE NORTHWEST WIND BELTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A HIGH
FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK AS THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO LOW.
THAT WILL PUT THE PCPN CHANCES IN THE NORTHERLY WIND AREAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015
EXPECT PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
IN SLOWLY VEERING N TO E FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER LOW INVERSION
BASE ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HIGH PRES MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH
ONTARIO. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
VSBY AT IWD WITH LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIODS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 30
KNOTS. BY FRIDAY...SW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

511 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

EXPECT PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT CMX AND
SAW IN SLOWLY VEERING N TO E FLOW OFF LK SUP UNDER LO INVRN BASE ON
THE SRN FLANK OF HI PRES MOVING SLOWLY THRU NW ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME IFR VSBYS UNDER MORE NMRS SHSN IMPACTING SAW EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN MORE FAVORABLE NNE UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN
PLACE... CONTINUED LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WL TEND TO REDUCE THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THIS LES. THE FCST FOR IWD IS A BIT MORE
TRICKY. ALTHOUGH THE NEAR SFC FLOW HAS SHIFTED TO A DOWNSLOPE E
DIRECTION...A MORE NW FLOW JUST BLO THE SUBSIDENCE INVRN WL ALLOW
SOME MVFR CIGS TO HAND ON A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. BUT
AS THE INVRN BASE CONTINUES TO SINK...STILL EXPECTING THE LO CLDS TO
DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. BUT
AS ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LO PRES TRACKS THRU THE UPR MIDWEST
ON MON AFTN/EVNG...SOME -SN AND MVFR CONDITIONS ON THE NRN FLANK
OF THIS DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO RETURN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

632 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

BASED ON THE MOST RECENT REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AND HRRR MODEL RUNS...
ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND THEN
ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO BUMPED UP SKY COVER A BIT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS
TODAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY DROP
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE LIGHT PCPN ACROSS OUR NRN CWA TODAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY ONLY ALLOW A FEW
SPRINKLES TO HIT THE GROUND BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.

A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. SOME LIGHT PCPN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT THE MAJORITY OF IT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. A SECONDARY MID LEVEL LOBE WILL FOLLOW THE SAME
TRACK AND COULD PRODUCE LIGHT PCPN JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR
CWA AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY WELL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HAVE HIGHS RANGING FORM THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S IN THE SOUTH WHICH IS 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER AS
COLDER POCKET OF 850MB AIR SETTLES SOUTH. WEDNESDAY LOOKS SLIGHTLY
COOLER YET WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID 30S IN OUR NORTH TO LOW
40S IN OUR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL DROP THROUGH THIS FLOW WITH THE
STRONGEST COMING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN POPS
ARE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AT THIS TIME BUT TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH ANY CEILINGS LIKELY
TO BE AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOMING NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE QUICKLY TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS OVER THE AREA...BUT CHANCES SEEMED LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

425 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY... BUT WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER SO ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED
AGAIN TODAY... IT SHOULD NOT BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY. THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE DONE A VERY POOR JOB AT DEWPOINT PROJECTIONS
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAP DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY... WHICH MAKE MORE SENSE AT THIS POINT
ANYWAY. COOLER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BECOME CLOSER TO AVERAGE BEGINNING TOMORROW.

ONE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TOMORROW AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNAL OF LIGHT
QPF ACROSS THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING SO WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT UNANIMOUS... THERE HAS BEEN A
PERSISTENT SIGNAL OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING
IN ADDITION TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO OUR
SOUTH IN TEXAS. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE CURRENT TIMING... A LOT OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID... ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET
COOL ENOUGH TO SEE A MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN AT LEAST THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OR
SO OF ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTHWEST AND WILL WATCH FORECAST TRENDS
AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 39 57 34 / 0 0 10 0
HOBART OK 69 38 57 33 / 0 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 39 61 36 / 0 0 10 0
GAGE OK 68 34 55 29 / 0 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 65 36 55 29 / 0 10 20 0
DURANT OK 66 40 62 38 / 0 0 10 0

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

1020 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

Guidance continues to verify poorly with respect to temperatures.
Been the case for 3 days now. Last night`s decoupling resulted in
poor low temp verification (much cooler than forecast). In fact
the 96-120 hr low temp forecast from a few days ago was better
than the short term guidance. Flip side, readings in west KY into
SEMO soaring faster than any short term and hi res guidance can
handle this morning. RUC seems to be the closest. Sfc low setting
near KUNO with a quasi warm front extending east into srn IL and
west KY. Made adjustments to the hourly gridded temp forecast.
Will see if the highs hold across southern sections. Edged them up
a degree or so some locales. At least it`s mild, and not a major
item in the grand scheme of things.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 253 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

Tranquil wx today yields to increasing clouds and a small chance
of glancing showers tmrw. This occurs as a broadening long wave
trof digs over the mid Ms valley, in response to repeated shots of
energy streaming from the Plains toward/across the Oh valley. The
net effect for our FA is a slight/gradual increase in moisture in
the atmospheric column, while temps cool slightly in response to
the trof`ing.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 253 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

Despite the relative similarity of the mean upper air pattern of the
medium range guidance, there continues to be some run-to-run
inconsistency on the orientation of the western/southwestern U.S.
ridge and the northeast U.S./Canadian trough. Ensemble guidance does
not seem to favor a deeper eastern U.S. trough/dominant western
ridge. The combination tends to limit the potential for significant
precipitation through Saturday.

Although the mechanism generating instability/moisture across the
area varies from the GFS/ECMWF, both sharpen the trough enough
to support precipitation over the WFO PAH forecast area for Sunday
and Monday of next week. Some of the diagnostic guidance does not
suggest that this is an forecast anomaly, so believe that there is
support for precipitation early next week.

No significant changes to the extended with this package.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 253 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

Other than occasional high clouds, tranquil wx will be the rule
across all flight terminals this valid time period as VFR
conditions prevail.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1053 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATION
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. AS SUCH...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WERE WARRANTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON OBSERVATION AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ATTM.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN NW
FLOW OR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA LATE
IN THE PERIOD ARE ANTICIPATED. ANY CIGS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN IN THE
VFR CATEGORY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1158 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015EXPECT PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
IN SLOWLY VEERING E FLOW OFF LK SUP UNDER LOW INVERSION BASE ON THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF HIGH PRES MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH ONTARIO FOR IWD
AND CMX AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SAW. AS WINDS GO EAST AT
SAW...THIS CUTS OFF THE LAKE EFFECT PCPN AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
SCATTERED CLOUD DECK WILL DEVELOP AND LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
VSBY AT IWD WITH LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

323 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

A WEAK MID-LEVEL S/W EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TONIGHT AND
COMBINE WITH WEAK WAA/850-925MB F-GEN ORIENTED FROM NW MN INTO
W-CENTRAL WI TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT MOISTURE
PROFILES DRYING OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT ALOFT AND SOME AREAS LOSING
ICE CRYSTALS IN THE SOURCE REGION. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE PRECIP TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FZDZ TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO ONLY RANGE
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH NO ICE ACCUM EXPECTED.

ONE AREA THAT MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
NORTH SHORE NORTH OF TACONITE HARBOR WHERE A WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND HAS BEEN PERSISTING AROUND GRAND MARAIS WITH EAST WINDS AND
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER THE ERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SHOULD
SEE THIS BAND SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS
IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF AN INCH OR LESS AROUND
GRAND MARAIS THIS AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH MORE OUT
OF IT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE MAIN S/W ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO
THE SE TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF THROUGH
THE DAY...LIKELY LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SRN COUNTIES AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS SRN MN.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE WEAK RIDGE BUBBLE SITS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH RELATIVELY
DRY AIR. CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST AS THE COOL NWLY FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...AND INTO THE MID 20S TO THE SOUTH. ON
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY WITH
HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP AS THEY IMPACT THE NORTHLAND. WE HAVE
MAINLY SMALL POPS AT THIS TIME AS TIMING OF THE WAVES WILL BE A
CHALLENGE. FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SOME SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS GOOD WAA WILL OCCUR.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS NEAR OR A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

A FEW PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVES AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT. THE LAKE EFFECT ALSO DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG
THROUGH THE WEEK AS BOTH FETCH AND INSTABILITY ARE LACKING FOR HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

A STRONGER SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF THIS WEEKEND. A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS A NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPS INTO THE
AREA. AT THIS TIME...HEAVY SNOW LOOKS UNLIKELY BUT SOME ACCUMULATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE TRACK HOLDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND AS OF LATE MORNING WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH AS WELL. WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO
LOWER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING LOW
MVFR TO IFR.

WE ALSO EXPECT A PERIOD OR TWO OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME FZDZ.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SOME FZDZ AS LACK OF ICE
CRYSTALS ALOFT OCCUR OVER FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SOUNDINGS FOR FZDZ.
WE DID NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AND
ADD IF NEEDED. THE HRRR AND NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING AN AREA OF PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WE FOLLOWED
AND HAVE A PERIOD OF PREVAILING SNOW IN MOST OF THE TAFS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 24 27 22 28 / 50 20 10 20
INL 18 27 20 26 / 10 10 20 30
BRD 26 30 22 28 / 30 30 20 30
HYR 24 30 17 28 / 60 20 10 20
ASX 22 26 18 27 / 60 20 20 20

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE