Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/18/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 1014 AM PST FRI JAN 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MINOR RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD BY MONDAY AND
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 AM PST FRIDAY...A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN THIS
MORNING ACROSS NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT
TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY .05" OR LESS
ALTHOUGH HAWKEYE HAS PICKED UP 0.15" SO FAR. RADAR SHOWS ECHOS
CURRENTLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST WITH THE HRRR INDICATING ALL OF THE
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY 10 AM. RAIN SHOULD STAY NORTH OF SF. OTHER
ITEM OF NOTE IS LOWER VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE EAST BAY THIS
MORNING WITH CONCORD DROPPING DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE EARLIER.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF. TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 6OS FOR THE NORTH.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN CONTINUES TO KEEP THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LOT OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH BREAKS ACROSS THE
BAY AREA REVEALING TULE FOG ONCE AGAIN PUSHING INTO THE EAST BAY
VALLEYS. RIGHT NOW ONLY CONCORD AIRPORT IS BEING AFFECTED WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...WAITING TO SEE IF THIS AREA BECOMES MORE
EXTENSIVE. MEANWHILE...THE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NORTH ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY SPREADING
RAIN INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY IS
ONLY PICKING UP SOME LIGHT ECHOES...LIKELY ALOFT...OVER FAR
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY. NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN DETECTED
AS OF YET...BUT MODEL DATA HAVE RAIN CHANCES PICKING UP IN THE
NORTH BAY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...MAINLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH
PERHAPS AS MUCH AS A THIRD OF AN INCH IN FAR NORTHWEST SONOMA
COUNTY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BY THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY BUT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH BAY.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
REBUILD OVER THE WEST FOR DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH IF CLIMATE PREDICTION OUTLOOKS ARE
CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:33 AM PST FRIDAY... A WEAK FRONT AND AN
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME ARE POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS MORNING. THE MOUTH OF THE MOISTURE PLUME IS ADVECTING IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THIS IS GENERATING
HAZY CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF LINGERING MIST AND VARYING CLOUD
DECKS THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY... KSFO/KOAK CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME ADVECTS IN PATCHWORK BANDS OF MOISTURE. MODEL DATA INDICATES
LINGERING MOISTURE INTO TOMORROW MORNING SO HZ/BR WITH POSBL MVFR
CIGS SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT/SAT MORN. LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AROUND THE BAY AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOW CONFIDENCE. HAZY WILL IMPACT SLANT
VISIBILITY WITH PERIODIC MVFR CIGS OF BKN015-BKN025 THROUGH 04Z.
SLIGHTLY LESS MID LEVEL MOISTURE TOMORROW MORNING... HOWEVER LOW
LEVELS STAY MOIST. ANTICIPATE PERIODIC MVFR CIGS WITH HAZE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...EXPECTING ONLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR KMRY
AND KSNS TODAY...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:52 AM PST FRIDAY...A GLANCING BLOW FROM A STORM
PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
NORTH OF POINT REYES. THE BAY AREA WILL SERVE AS A BOUNDARY
BETWEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY STRONGER NW WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS.
EXPECT NORTHWEST SWELL WITH MODERATE SEAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 845 AM PST FRI JAN 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MINOR RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD BY MONDAY AND
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 AM PST FRIDAY...A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN THIS
MORNING ACROSS NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT
TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY .05" OR LESS
ALTHOUGH HAWKEYE HAS PICKED UP 0.15" SO FAR. RADAR SHOWS ECHOS
CURRENTLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST WITH THE HRRR INDICATING ALL OF THE
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY 10 AM. RAIN SHOULD STAY NORTH OF SF. OTHER
ITEM OF NOTE IS LOWER VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE EAST BAY THIS
MORNING WITH CONCORD DROPPING DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE EARLIER.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF. TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 6OS FOR THE NORTH.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN CONTINUES TO KEEP THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LOT OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH BREAKS ACROSS THE
BAY AREA REVEALING TULE FOG ONCE AGAIN PUSHING INTO THE EAST BAY
VALLEYS. RIGHT NOW ONLY CONCORD AIRPORT IS BEING AFFECTED WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...WAITING TO SEE IF THIS AREA BECOMES MORE
EXTENSIVE. MEANWHILE...THE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NORTH ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY SPREADING
RAIN INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY IS
ONLY PICKING UP SOME LIGHT ECHOES...LIKELY ALOFT...OVER FAR
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY. NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN DETECTED
AS OF YET...BUT MODEL DATA HAVE RAIN CHANCES PICKING UP IN THE
NORTH BAY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...MAINLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH
PERHAPS AS MUCH AS A THIRD OF AN INCH IN FAR NORTHWEST SONOMA
COUNTY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BY THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY BUT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH BAY.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
REBUILD OVER THE WEST FOR DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH IF CLIMATE PREDICTION OUTLOOKS ARE
CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:33 AM PST FRIDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. STILL MAINLY
DEALING WITH HAZE AND REDUCED VSBYS WITH MOST CIGS IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE SEEMS TO HAVE PRECLUDED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EXCEPT OUT
IN THE DELTA AND PLACES LIKE KCCR. HIGH CLOUDS MAKING LOW LEVEL FOG
DETECTION DIFFICULT THIS MORNING. TAF PACKAGE WILL INTRODUCE -SHRA
CHANCES FOR KSTS LATER TODAY BUT NOT EXPECTING PRECIP SOUTH OF
SANTA ROSA. HAZY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE MAJOR ISSUE FOR BAY
AREA TERMINALS WITH MAINLY JUST VFR CIGS. FARTHER SOUTH JUST
EXPECTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND KMRY AND KSNS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
TO MEDIUM THIS MORNING WITH NO GOOD FEEL FOR HOW CLOUDS WILL
REFORM TONIGHT...THEREFORE TAFS SHOWING SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. MAIN CONCERN IS HAZY
CONDITIONS. BUST POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT NOT SEEING THE SAME DENSE
FOG POTENTIAL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS WITH SYNOPTIC FRONT
APPROACHING REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND OVERNIGHT HIGH
CLOUDS PREVENTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG FORMATION AROUND
REGION.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...EXPECTING ONLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR KMRY
AND KSNS TODAY...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:33 AM PST FRIDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WATERS NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. LIGHT NW WIND AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. NO BIG CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF POINT ARENA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WIND AND MODERATE SEAS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY STRONGER NW
WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 1040 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPEN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND PASSES
WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT TO THE EAST COAST BY LATE SUNDAY...SPAWNING LOW PRES
OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LLJ AND WAA STRENGTHENS.
COMBINATION OF LIGHT SURFACE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE ALONG THE
COAST AND REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS INTERIOR.

CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY LOOKS REASONABLE FOR LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM COASTLINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE THROUGH THE 20S
WITH LIGHT FLOW. OPER MODELS AND HRRR SHOW POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RA TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STEADIER AND HEAVIER PRECIP THROUGH THE MID
TO LATE MORNING WITH STRONGER LIFT.

AS THE FLOW STRENGTHENS AFTER SUNRISE...TEMPS ALONG THE SRN TIER
RISE ABV FREEZING. ACROSS THE NWRN INTERIOR THE COLD AIR WILL TAKE
LONGER TO ERODE. END TIME FOR THE ADVY IS 13Z COASTS AND 16Z
INTERIOR AS A RESULT. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE ICE FCST IS THE
EXTENT OF THE PCPN. IF THE PCPN TAKES LONGER TO
MATERIALIZE...LITTLE TO NO ICE ALONG THE COASTS/CITY AND REDUCED
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

BUT...EVEN IF AIR TEMPS DO RISE ABOVE FREEZING...NYS THRUWAY ROAD TEMP
SENSORS INDICATING...ROAD TEMPS AROUND 30 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER AND MID 20S ACROSS NORTHERN
WESTCHESTER/ORANGE/ROCKLAND COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD BE A REASONABLE
PROXY FOR NE NJ AND SW CT ROADS AS WELL. SO UNTREATED GROUND
SURFACE ICING MAY BE AN ISSUE UNTIL TEMPS CAN GET INTO THE MID
30S...WHICH MATCHES FAIRLY WELL WITH END TIMES OF ADVISORY.

THE CWA GETS INTO THE RRQUAD OF THE 130KT H3 JET LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HVY RAIN TO BLOSSOM OVER THE
AREA. ALL RAIN WITH THE INTENSIFYING SLY FLOW WARMING THE LLVLS.

HAVE BUMPED UP RAIN AMOUNTS A BIT WITH HIGH RES MODELS INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR 1+ INCH OF RAIN IN 3 HRS...WITH 40+ DBZ ECHOES IN
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY. MMEFS IN FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS OF AROUND 1
INCHES EAST AND FAR NW TRI-STATE TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR
NYC/NJ METRO IN ABOUT 12 HRS. NAM/SREF INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD TSTM IN THE LATE AFTN/EVE...MAINLY SE CT/E LI.

COLD DRY AIR WRAPS IN FROM THE W SUN EVE AND NGT...ENDING PCPN
QUICKLY. W WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH BY MON MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIALLY...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THEN DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF QUICK MOVING...WEAK
SYSTEMS IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN LOW AS A
RESULT.

GENERALLY DRY THOUGH...EXCEPT POSSIBLY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MONDAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS...AS DOES
UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY
WEAK RIDGE...SFC HIGH BRIEFLY. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY. THEN CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH
12Z ECMWF FORECASTING UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT PASSING NEARBY OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT IF IT DOES INDEED
MATERIALIZE DUE TO ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT. POPS UPPED FROM
PREVIOUS...AND WITH COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...CAPPED
POPS AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. ANY SHIFT IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE...WITH EITHER CATEGORICAL POPS IN A LOW QPF
EVENT...TO A DRY FORECAST.

THEREAFTER...UPSTREAM TROUGH...WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS
NOTED...APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS OUR AREA THOUGH.

TEMPS ARE A MET/MAV BLEND MONDAY...AND GRIDDED MOS TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...BLENDED ECE MOS WITH WPC AND GRIDDED MOS. IN
GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS COOL LATE IN THE WEAK AS HEIGHTS LOWER
BEHIND MID WEEK CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT WILL THEN MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE REGION SUN
EVE.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN FOR COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT FOR KTEB/KHPN/KSWF
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ONSET AFTER 09-11Z AS FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD AT KEWR. EVEN
IF SURFACE TEMPS RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THESE
TERMINALS...GROUND TEMPS COULD BE AROUND FREEZING FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS RESULTING IN ICING OF UNTREATED SURFACES. PRECIP SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST PLACES BY 13-14Z WITH GROUND TEMPS WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING...BUT HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 15-16Z AT KSWF.

FLIGHT CAT SHOULD QUICKLY GO TO LOW-END MVFR WITH ONSET OF PRECIP
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN TO IFR A COUPLE OF HRS
LATER CONTINUING THROUGH AFTERNOON IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
POTENTIAL FOR LIFR OR LOWER CONDS AT KTEB/KHPN/KSWF LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RAIN. THERE IS A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR SPARSE TSRA AT KISP/KGON LATE SUN AFT/EARLY EVE.

GENERALLY S FLOW 10 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SE
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20S FOR KJFK AND EASTERN TERMINALS SUN MORNING CONTINUING
INTO AFT. POTETNIAL FOR GUSTS OF 30+ KT IN HEAVIER RAIN. LLWS
POTENTIAL BETWEEN 18Z TO 00Z FOR COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH 45-50 KT
LLJ AT 2 KFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BETWEEN 23Z TO 04Z...WITH CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN
VFR. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KSWF SUN NIGHT.
.MON...VFR. WEST WINDS 10-20 KT WITH G20-30 KT.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD AIR ALOFT ALLOWS
MIXING OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. AS THE AIR WARMS
ALOFT...WINDS MAY ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

WAVES REACH 5 FT ON SUNDAY. A SCA ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN THRU SUN
NGT. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25-30KT WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS NEAR
44017. ELSEWHERE...WINDS GENERALLY BLW 25 KT...BUT EASTERN LI
SOUND AND BAY MAY BRIEFLY SEE MARGINAL SCA LATE SUN/SUN EVE.

AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
MONDAY...GUSTY NW/W FLOW PREVAILS ON THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW.

THIS LOW MOVES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...THEN
DEEPENS WELL TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND IT.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HAZARDS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK
INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO
CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNT NW AND EAST. POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 1 INCH
OF RAIN IN 3 HRS IN AFT/EARLY EVE.

THESE RAINFALL RATES/AMOUNTS WOULD CAUSE MINOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING THE AFT/EVE. ADDITIONALLY...IF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED ACROSS NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/SW CT...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING OF
FLASHY SMALL STREAMS DUE TO SLOWLY THAWING GROUND AND RUNOFF.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ005-006.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ009-
     010.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ071>074.
NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ002-004-103.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ006-
     104>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV/PW
SHORT TERM...JMC/NV
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW/NV







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 710 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND PASSES WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING AS IT
MOVES EAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NERN CONUS WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY SPAWNING LOW PRES OVER THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY.

CLOUD COVER ON IR APPEARS SPARSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATION COOLING THIS EVE. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
STALL THEN SLOWLY RISE LATE. MODELS ALL SHOW DECENT LLVL LIFT LATE.
MOST SPOTS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING
SHORELINES. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT FZRA
AND/OR FZDZ. AN ADVY HAS THEREFORE BEEN ISSUED.

NO CHANGES THIS EVENING TO HAZARDS AS 18Z NAM RUN ALONG WITH
LATEST HRRR ALL SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE FLOW STRENGTHENS AFTER SUNRISE...TEMPS ALONG THE SRN TIER
RISE ABV FREEZING. ACROSS THE NWRN INTERIOR THE COLD AIR WILL TAKE
LONGER TO ERODE. END TIME FOR THE ADVY IS 13Z COASTS AND 16Z
INTERIOR AS A RESULT.

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE ICE FCST IS THE EXTENT OF THE PCPN. IF THE
PCPN TAKES LONGER TO MATERIALIZE...LITTLE TO NO ICE ALONG THE
COASTS/CITY AND REDUCED AMOUNTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THE CWA GETS INTO THE RRQUAD OF THE 130KT H3 JET LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO LOC HVY RAIN TO BLOSSOM OVER THE
AREA. ALL RAIN WITH THE INTENSIFYING SLY FLOW WARMING THE LLVLS.
THE NAM IS HINTING AT SOME CONVECTIVE PCPN...SO PERHAPS AN ISOLD
TSTM IN THE LATE AFTN/EVE. PROB TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST
ATTM.

COLD DRY AIR WRAPS IN FROM THE W SUN EVE AND NGT...ENDING PCPN
QUICKLY. W WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH BY MON MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIALLY...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THEN DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF QUICK MOVING...WEAK
SYSTEMS IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN LOW AS A
RESULT.

GENERALLY DRY THOUGH...EXCEPT POSSIBLY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MONDAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS...AS DOES
UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY
WEAK RIDGE...SFC HIGH BRIEFLY. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY. THEN CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH
12Z ECMWF FORECASTING UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT PASSING NEARBY OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT IF IT DOES INDEED
MATERIALIZE DUE TO ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT. POPS UPPED FROM
PREVIOUS...AND WITH COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...CAPPED
POPS AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. ANY SHIFT IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE...WITH EITHER CATEGORICAL POPS IN A LOW QPF
EVENT...TO A DRY FORECAST.

THEREAFTER...UPSTREAM TROUGH...WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS
NOTED...APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS OUR AREA THOUGH.

TEMPS ARE A MET/MAV BLEND MONDAY...AND GRIDDED MOS TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...BLENDED ECE MOS WITH WPC AND GRIDDED MOS. IN
GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS COOL LATE IN THE WEAK AS HEIGHTS LOWER
BEHIND MID WEEK CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT WILL THEN MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE REGION SUN
EVE.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN FOR COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT FOR KTEB/KHPN/KSWF
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ONSET AFTER 09-11Z AS FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN...AND POSSIBLY AT KEWR FOR 1-2 HOURS. EVEN
IF SURFACE TEMPS RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THESE
TERMINALS...GROUND TEMPS COULD BE AROUND FREEZING FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS RESULTING IN ICING OF UNTREATED SURFACES. PRECIP SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST PLACES BY 13-14Z WITH GROUND TEMPS WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING...BUT HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 15-16Z AT KSWF.

FLIGHT CAT SHOULD QUICKLY GO TO LOW-END MVFR WITH ONSET OF PRECIP
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN TO IFR A COUPLE OF HRS
LATER CONTINUING THROUGH AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR LIFR OR LOWER
CONDS AT KTEB/KHPN/KSWF LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SPARSE
TSRA AT KISP/KGON LATE SUN AFT/EARLY EVE.

GENERALLY S FLOW 10 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY MORNING FOR TERMINALS W/NW OF NYC.
MEANWHILE...SE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT FOR KJFK AND
EASTERN TERMINALS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN MORNING
CONTINUING INTO AFT. LLWS POTENTIAL BETWEEN 18Z TO 00Z FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS...WITH 45-50 KT LLJ AT 2 KFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BETWEEN 23Z TO 04Z...WITH CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN
VFR. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KSWF SUN NIGHT.
.MON...VFR. WEST WINDS 10-20 KT WITH G20-30 KT.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT MIDNIGHT AS COLD AIR ALOFT ALLOWS
MIXING OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. AS THE AIR WARMS ALOFT...WINDS
MAY ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT.

WAVES REACH 5 FT ON SUNDAY. A SCA ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN STARTING SUN
MRNG LASTING THRU SUN NGT. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25-30KT WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS NEAR 44017. ELSEWHERE...WINDS GENERALLY BLW 25 KT SO
NO SCA ISSUED THRU SUN NGT.

AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
MONDAY...GUSTY NW/W FLOW PREVAILS ON THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW.

THIS LOW MOVES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...THEN
DEEPENS WELL TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND IT.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HAZARDS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK
INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED SUN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ005-006.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ009-
     010.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ071>074.
NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ002-004-103.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ006-
     104>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/PW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 102 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE TWO LOWS WILL
MERGE, THEN DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
CAROLINAS AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR MID-DAY UPDATE, ONCE AGAIN USED LAV GUIDANCE AS
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT INPUT FOR REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE GOTTEN MORE ROBUST IN THE POCONOS AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER A HALF INCH. ITS WINTER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
TODAY...A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
BUT STILL WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER THE NW 2/3RDS OF OUR FCST AREA BETWEEN 11 AM AND 4 PM EST.
ELEVATION AND FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PERMIT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ HIGH
TERRAIN. ISOLATED SMALL AMOUNTS OF SNOW UNDER ONE HALF INCH ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY POCONOS. LAPSE RATES AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT PLUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW TRANSPORTED EASTWARD IN BANDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE THE MAIN REASONS FOR THE FORECAST OF SNOW
SHOWERS THERE. YOU CAN SEE THAT BAND ON THE 630 AM RADAR IMAGERY
FROM SW NYS THROUGH KITH. PRIMARY TIMING FOR THE SNOW APPEARS TO
BE NOON TO 2 PM. NSSL WRF HAS SLIGHTLY MORE EXTENSIVE SNOW
FLURRIES IN NE PA THAN WE DO ATTM. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR WERE NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE AT LAST CHECK THROUGH 08Z.

USUALLY 20F T/DEWPOINT SPREADS TAKE POTENTIAL SNOW SHOWERS AND
LEAVE THEM AS VIRGA FLYING BY OVERHEAD...THE MILKY WHITE SKY LOOK
AS I EXPECT TO SEE VIRGA IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NJ AND NE PA TODAY
DOWN TO I78.

FALLING TEMPERATURES A BIT SOONER THAN USUAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAX TEMPS EXPECTED 11 AM TO 1 PM PRIOR TO WIDESPREAD SC FORMATION.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY THIS MORNING AND THEN
NORTHWEST GUSTS 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/16 NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE WITH THE TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BLEND. THESE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST AT OR UP TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
COLDER BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES..DEPENDING ON LOCATION.. AS COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY WITH A WIND CHILL! GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH CONTINUE TILL ABOUT MIDNIGHT WITH DECENT LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WINDS TEND TO DECOUPLE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE LATE.

WIND CHILL INDEX IS FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN -10 AND -13 AT
KMPO BETWEEN 4 AM AND 7 AM SATURDAY.

FORECAST TEMPS/DEWS/WIND ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/16 NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE.

THESE LOWS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE TO ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND
THEN MERGE WITH A LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION/ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION WHILE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CAROLINAS AROUND MIDWEEK.

IN THE MID LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO
TROUGHING AS A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE TROUGH BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE STARTING TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ON MONDAY. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS
SHOULD KEEP US NICE AND DRY TO START OFF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE, WE WILL SEE A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOP. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD USHER IN A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND WE SHOULD
TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP JUST A BIT, AS WELL.

SUNDAY...A COASTAL LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA. IN ADDITION, A DEEP MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
WILL START TO OVERSPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL
CREATE ADDITIONAL LIFT AS IT STARTS TO NEGATIVELY TILT DURING THE
EVENING AND THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL TAKE OVER AND ABSORB THE
NORTHERN LOW. THE COMBINED LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT PULLS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE COLD AT THE START BUT AS WE SEE SOME
WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE WILL START TO SEE TEMPERATURES RISE.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING TO START THE DAY AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN CAN
EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A MIX MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
ON SUNDAY. SHOULD COLD AIR BE STUBBORN AT THE SURFACE AS THE WARMER
AIR MOVES IN, WE COULD SEE PRECIPITATION FALL AS FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
FOR NOW, WE KEEP SNOW/RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF DATA TO COME IN BEFORE WE FINALIZE THE DETAILS.

MONDAY...AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER TO THE NORTH, THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL GET PULLED TO THE NORTH DURING MONDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE ABSORBED LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT WILL HAVE
LOST MOST OF ITS OOMPH FROM HAVING BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE COASTAL
LOW. WHILE THIS TYPICALLY WOULD MAKE FOR A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
OUR AREA, THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS TO MAKE INTO OUR AREA. IN ADDITION, WE WILL SEE A PUSH
OF SOME COLDER AIR MOVE BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
BUT LOOKS MORE LIKE A BRIEF RIDGE FOR OUR AREA. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA, SOME PRECIPITATION MIGHT ARRIVE DURING
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT
STRONG. IN ADDITION, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CAROLINAS. A FEW STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE
MID LEVELS LOOK TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. OVERALL,
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE SOME KIND OF STORM AFFECTING OUR AREA
DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME BUT THERE IS A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE ITEMS. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WE SEE OUT NEXT ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH ANOTHER, SMALLER, CHANCE OF MORE ON THURSDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY,
THIS PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH.

SATURDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY COLD DAY AND BELOW NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL
WARM UP APPRECIABLY IN THE WAA AND TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


TODAY...VFR. SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT. WEST WINDS GUST 20 KT THIS
MORNING SHIFT NW AND GUST 25-33 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF IFR
CONDS EXPECTED IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE POCONOS 16Z- 21Z
TODAY. ELSEWHERE... VIRGA EARLY THIS AFTN...POSSIBLE FLURRY DOWN
TO KRDG AND KABE BUT TEMP DEW SPREADS OF 20F MAY PREVENT FLURRY
OCCURRENCE THERE.

TONIGHT...VFR CLEAR. NW WIND GUSTY AROUND 20 KT THROUGH 06Z THEN
DIMINISH LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...BECOMING MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, IN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS, HIGHER TOWARDS THE EAST.

TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT.

NW WIND GUSTS MAY TOUCH 34 KT FOR 2 OR 3 HOURS OVER ANZ450 - THE
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS...SOMETIME BETWEEN 5 PM AND 10
PM THIS EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE CAPPED GUSTS AT 32 KT AND NO GALE
WARNING.

00Z/16 WW3 SEAS RAISED 1 FT AT 00Z AND 06Z/17.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT BY OUR TOOL
AND AUTOMATED GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL.

WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH BEGINNING AROUND 06Z/17.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MAY NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SEAS WILL START TO BUILD SUNDAY AND WILL EXCEED
5 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY, ESPECIALLY MONDAY,  AND GUST ABOVE
25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH LATE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/MEOLA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 1015 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE TWO LOWS WILL
MERGE, THEN DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
CAROLINAS AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY FEW CHANGES ON THE MID MORNING UPDATE. LATE MORNING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE UPDATED WITH LATEST LAV GUIDANCE.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, EXTENDED THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
TODAY...A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
BUT STILL WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER THE NW 2/3RDS OF OUR FCST AREA BETWEEN 11 AM AND 4 PM EST.
ELEVATION AND FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PERMIT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ HIGH
TERRAIN. ISOLATED SMALL AMOUNTS OF SNOW UNDER ONE HALF INCH ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY POCONOS. LAPSE RATES AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT PLUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW TRANSPORTED EASTWARD IN BANDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE THE MAIN REASONS FOR THE FORECAST OF SNOW
SHOWERS THERE. YOU CAN SEE THAT BAND ON THE 630 AM RADAR IMAGERY
FROM SW NYS THROUGH KITH. PRIMARY TIMING FOR THE SNOW APPEARS TO
BE NOON TO 2 PM. NSSL WRF HAS SLIGHTLY MORE EXTENSIVE SNOW
FLURRIES IN NE PA THAN WE DO ATTM. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR WERE NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE AT LAST CHECK THROUGH 08Z.

USUALLY 20F T/DEWPOINT SPREADS TAKE POTENTIAL SNOW SHOWERS AND
LEAVE THEM AS VIRGA FLYING BY OVERHEAD...THE MILKY WHITE SKY LOOK
AS I EXPECT TO SEE VIRGA IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NJ AND NE PA TODAY
DOWN TO I78.

FALLING TEMPERATURES A BIT SOONER THAN USUAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAX TEMPS EXPECTED 11 AM TO 1 PM PRIOR TO WIDESPREAD SC FORMATION.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY THIS MORNING AND THEN
NORTHWEST GUSTS 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/16 NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE WITH THE TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BLEND. THESE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST AT OR UP TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
COLDER BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES..DEPENDING ON LOCATION.. AS COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY WITH A WIND CHILL! GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH CONTINUE TILL ABOUT MIDNIGHT WITH DECENT LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WINDS TEND TO DECOUPLE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE LATE.

WIND CHILL INDEX IS FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN -10 AND -13 AT
KMPO BETWEEN 4 AM AND 7 AM SATURDAY.

FORECAST TEMPS/DEWS/WIND ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/16 NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE.

THESE LOWS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE TO ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND
THEN MERGE WITH A LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION/ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION WHILE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CAROLINAS AROUND MIDWEEK.

IN THE MID LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO
TROUGHING AS A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE TROUGH BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE STARTING TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ON MONDAY. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS
SHOULD KEEP US NICE AND DRY TO START OFF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE, WE WILL SEE A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOP. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD USHER IN A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND WE SHOULD
TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP JUST A BIT, AS WELL.

SUNDAY...A COASTAL LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA. IN ADDITION, A DEEP MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
WILL START TO OVERSPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL
CREATE ADDITIONAL LIFT AS IT STARTS TO NEGATIVELY TILT DURING THE
EVENING AND THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL TAKE OVER AND ABSORB THE
NORTHERN LOW. THE COMBINED LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT PULLS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE COLD AT THE START BUT AS WE SEE SOME
WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE WILL START TO SEE TEMPERATURES RISE.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING TO START THE DAY AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN CAN
EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A MIX MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
ON SUNDAY. SHOULD COLD AIR BE STUBBORN AT THE SURFACE AS THE WARMER
AIR MOVES IN, WE COULD SEE PRECIPITATION FALL AS FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
FOR NOW, WE KEEP SNOW/RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF DATA TO COME IN BEFORE WE FINALIZE THE DETAILS.

MONDAY...AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER TO THE NORTH, THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL GET PULLED TO THE NORTH DURING MONDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE ABSORBED LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT WILL HAVE
LOST MOST OF ITS OOMPH FROM HAVING BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE COASTAL
LOW. WHILE THIS TYPICALLY WOULD MAKE FOR A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
OUR AREA, THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS TO MAKE INTO OUR AREA. IN ADDITION, WE WILL SEE A PUSH
OF SOME COLDER AIR MOVE BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
BUT LOOKS MORE LIKE A BRIEF RIDGE FOR OUR AREA. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA, SOME PRECIPITATION MIGHT ARRIVE DURING
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT
STRONG. IN ADDITION, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CAROLINAS. A FEW STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE
MID LEVELS LOOK TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. OVERALL,
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE SOME KIND OF STORM AFFECTING OUR AREA
DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME BUT THERE IS A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE ITEMS. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WE SEE OUT NEXT ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH ANOTHER, SMALLER, CHANCE OF MORE ON THURSDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY,
THIS PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH.

SATURDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY COLD DAY AND BELOW NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL
WARM UP APPRECIABLY IN THE WAA AND TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


TODAY...VFR. SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT. WEST WINDS GUST 20 KT THIS
MORNING SHIFT NW AND GUST 25-33 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF IFR
CONDS EXPECTED IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE POCONOS 16Z- 21Z
TODAY. ELSEWHERE... VIRGA EARLY THIS AFTN...POSSIBLE FLURRY DOWN
TO KRDG AND KABE BUT TEMP DEW SPREADS OF 20F MAY PREVENT FLURRY
OCCURRENCE THERE.

TONIGHT...VFR CLEAR. NW WIND GUSTY AROUND 20 KT THROUGH 06Z THEN
DIMINISH LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...BECOMING MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, IN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS, HIGHER TOWARDS THE EAST.

TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT.

NW WIND GUSTS MAY TOUCH 34 KT FOR 2 OR 3 HOURS OVER ANZ450 - THE
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS...SOMETIME BETWEEN 5 PM AND 10
PM THIS EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE CAPPED GUSTS AT 32 KT AND NO GALE
WARNING.

00Z/16 WW3 SEAS RAISED 1 FT AT 00Z AND 06Z/17.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT BY OUR TOOL
AND AUTOMATED GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL.

WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH BEGINNING AROUND 06Z/17.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MAY NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SEAS WILL START TO BUILD SUNDAY AND WILL EXCEED
5 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY, ESPECIALLY MONDAY,  AND GUST ABOVE
25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH LATE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/MEOLA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 1045 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE MIDLANDS ARE DECREASING AND SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER CENTRAL SC BY NOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. OVER THE CSRA IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY. SAT
IMAGES SHOW CLOUDS HOLDING TIGHT AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEP THE CLOUDS IN. CLOUDS IN CSRA
SHOULD START TO DECREASE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE AT OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. DO
NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AN ISSUE EXCEPT IN VERY LOW LYING AREAS WHERE
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT POOLED MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PATCHY GROUND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER THAN ON FRIDAY. WE KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER
60S SOUTH. GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S....WHICH AGREE WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL
PROGRESS FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A SECONDARY LOW
CENTER DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA COAST SUNDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH VERY LIMITED DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT CAE...CUB...AND OGB...REMAINING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 16Z AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

AT AGS AND DNL...POOLED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ARE ALLOWING THE STRATUS DECK TO PERSIST. MODELS HOLD THE
STRATUS DECK WITH THE HRRR SHOWING THE DECK BREAKING BY 19-20Z.
CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
18Z...BECOMING VFR AFTER THAT TIME AS THE CLOUD DECK STARTS TO
DISSIPATE. FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AT AGS IN THE MORNING DUE TO POOLED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE RIVER AND STRONG RADIATION COOLING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. CIG RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE LATE SAT NT/EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 921 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...
259 PM CST

THROUGH MONDAY...

AFTER MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND THEN POSSIBLE FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW.  THE
PARENT LOW STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE LAKES...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
SHOWS UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND ALL THE
WAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS A FAIRLY GENTLE POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING SOME MOSTLY ELEVATED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...BUT SFC
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND BELOW CLOUD
BASES OF 5000 FT OR MORE.  WITH THE BEST MOISTURE ALOFT AND THE BEST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAILING THE SFC FRONT...MID TO LOWER LEVELS SLOWLY
SATURATE BUT THEN HIGHER LEVELS START TO DRY OUT.  MODELS ALSO ARE
SHOWING DECENT FGEN AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE AIR IN
THAT REGION IS NOT FAVORABLY COLD OR SATURATED ENOUGH FOR
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW GROWTH.  FINALLY...LAKE EFFECTS IN NW INDIANA ALSO
ARE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY MILD AIR AND MORE WESTERLY THAN NORTH OR
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.  IN SUMMARY...EXPECT THE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
TO PERSIST THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES LATE WITH DIURNAL COOLING.

COLDER AIR MIGHT BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE UPSTREAM AIR MASS IS NEARLY
AS WARM AS WHAT WE ARE SEEING WITH TODAYS TEMPERATURES.  FOR THAT
REASON...WILL ONLY DROP FCST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
30S...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PLACES IN THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF OUR AREA REACH 40 AGAIN WITH CLEARER SKIES
AND LESS SNOW COVER.

MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...LIKE TODAY PERHAPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LENNING

&&

.LONG TERM...
259 PM CST

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

DETERMINISTIC MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT GENERALLY AGREE ON
BRINGING IT VERY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO
HAVE A DEEPER AND MORE ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE ALOFT...AND SOME MODELS
ARE HINTING AT MESOSCALE SUPPORT ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO
NARROW DOWN THE EXTENT AND AMOUNTS OF ANY SNOW THAT MIGHT DEVELOP.
WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR...SOME AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW TENTHS EVEN WITHOUT ASSISTANCE FROM MESOSCALE FORCING. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW ALSO RAISES THE IDEA OF PTYPE CONCERNS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AFTER ONE LAST SEASONABLY MILD DAY TUESDAY...OR AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY...MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING OUT WEST AND A DEEPENING TOUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SUPPORT THE ARRIVAL OF A COLDER AIR MASS LATE
TUESDAY WITH THE WEEKS COLDEST AIR SETTLING IN WEDNESDAY AND HANGING
AROUND AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY.  SECONDARY COLD FRONTS AND WEAK UPPER
WAVES WILL SUPPORT ONGOING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...MILDER AIR MAY ARRIVE AGAIN FRIDAY OR LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A BROADER AND DEEPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND.

LENNING

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* MVFR CIGS DEVELOP TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY LINGER AT TIMES INTO
  SUNDAY

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME
OCNL GUSTS INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE TONIGHT BUT EXPECT GUSTINESS TO
MAINLY BE OCNL IN NATURE. VARIABLE VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH THE STRATUS
MOVING IN UPSTREAM BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE
THAT MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY CLEARING OUT AT SOME POINT SUNDAY.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIGS
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
TUESDAY...MVFR LIKELY/CHANCE OF IFR. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. PRIMARILY DRY.

IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
136 PM CST

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND OVER THE LAKE.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF GALES WILL BE ENDING...SO I WILL
ALLOW THE GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 3 PM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A WESTERLY WIND
OVER THE LAKE INTO SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 25
TO 30 KT RANGE TONIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY ABATE TO 15 TO 25 KT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE BY
EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...A
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY APPROACH THE WESTERN LAKES BY
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...SO A GRADUAL UPTAKE IN WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS UP AROUND 25 KT LOOKING
TO BE A GOOD BET LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD ALSO
IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
     UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

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  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
900 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

Some sprinkles have been reaching the ground with the radar
echoes over east-central and southeast Illinois this evening, but
they should be exiting the area shortly along with the surface
cold front. A second, smaller, area of sprinkles and/or flurries
is approaching the area from eastern Iowa, associated with main
500 MB trof/vort max. This feature will track across the forecast
area over the next few hours, exiting the area to the east before
daybreak. Skies should also begin to rapidly clear behind the
second area of light precipitation.

Going forecast was in good shape overall. Updated forecast for the
latest trends, mainly to freshen the overnight precipitation and
cloud trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

20z/2 PM surface map shows deepening 991 mb low pressure nw of Lake
Superior with its cold front extending southward across western WI
to near the IA/IL border into central MO. This front will sweep
eastward across central and eastern IL during this evening, shifting
breezy ssw winds 15-25 mph and gusts 25-35 mph to the WNW with its
passage and diminishing to 10-20 mph tonight. A fairly strong upper
level trof over western MN to the NE/IA border to push eastward into
IL by 06Z/midnight tonight and to the IN/OH border by sunrise
Sunday. Already increased clouds this afternoon and tonight as cloud
levels lower tonight. But still think light measurable mixed
precipitation will be mainly east and ne of IL over Indiana and the
Great Lakes region since moisture limited over central IL. So
continued with chance of flurries and sprinkles over central IL this
evening and ending chances from west to east during overnight as
short wave trof axis passes to the east. Lows mostly in the lower
30s tonight with upper 20s near Galesburg and mid 30s near the
Wabash river by Lawrenceville.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

The upper air pattern across the lower 48 will continue to keep
the very cold air locked up over northern Canada with a more active
southern stream shunting the more significant precipitation well
to our south during this period. Several disturbances embedded in
the west to northwest flow pattern will track mainly to our north
during this period keeping us mild into early next week with little
in the way of significant rain or snow expected with these fast
moving shortwaves.

The upper trof and attendant frontal boundary that pushed across our
area today will be well off to our east by Sunday morning. Forecast
soundings showing quite a bit of low level moisture in place into
early Sunday morning with drier air filtering in from the west and
northwest during the day. Satellite data and upstream surface
observations showing a small band of lower clouds tracking southeast
behind the cool front but the HRRR model has been consistently showing
the back-edge of those clouds pushing into west central Illinois just
after midnight tonight, so with our low level flowing becoming less
cyclonic during the day Sunday, will decrease the cloud cover from
west to east in the morning. Not a lot of cold air available behind
the system late tonight into Sunday so temps will be above normal
again Sunday afternoon, although not quite as mild as this afternoon.

The next shortwave forecast to dig into the lower Great Lakes on
Tuesday with low chance PoPs confined to the north starting later
Monday night and holding into Tuesday evening across the east. Once
again, not a major rain or snow system with very little moisture
available to the upper wave. After that, a series of fast moving
shortwaves will track east southeast into the lower Great Lakes with
the surface lows moving mainly to our north. By Thursday, we see some
disagreement with the models in the speed and strength of the approaching
shortwave with the GFS much more aggressive with the upper wave and
further south track on the surface low than the current ECMWF. For now,
will side more with the weaker ECMWF which would lead to a further track
to the north later in the week, which would once again keep any low
chance PoPs confined to the north.

Towards the end of this forecast period models are starting to show
some ridging building northward around 140 degrees Longitude with
500 mb heights starting to lower over the central U.S. which would
lead to some colder temps for the last week of January. Will see
if the medium and long range models hold on to this idea in the next
several days. In the mean time, we should see a return to more seasonably
cold weather starting on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

Cold front associated with a clipper system is currently tracking
east across the central Illinois, and will be east of the local
TAF sites within the next few hours. Westerly winds will prevail
behind the front, and linger through the rest of the period.
Sustained winds should remain in the 11-15 kt range for much of
the night, with some higher gusts possible. A gradual diminishing
of the wind speeds is anticipated Sunday as the system pulls
further away. VFR conditions are expected for the most part, but
patches of MVFR conditions are expected across KPIA, KBMI, and
KCMI for at least the next few hours.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 258 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...
257 PM CST

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET.  THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
GENERALLY LOW AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSIVE...WITH A MODERATE NRN STREAM
JET FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY.  THIS JET IS GENERATING THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER WHICH IS
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  ALSO...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE
STREAM SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WHICH IS INDUCING A
SFC TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.  THE SFC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND
MOVE EWD OVERNIGHT WHILE AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION.  BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH
INTO WISCONSIN...SETTING UP BRISK SWLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN FRIDAY MORNING.

KREIN

&&

.LONG TERM...
257 PM CST

SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL TREND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD REFLECT THE
OVERALL LOW AMPLITUDE...QUICKLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT IS SETTING
UP IN THE SHORT TERM.  A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE
NRN ROCKIES AND TRACK ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY...REINFORCING
THE DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION SETTING UP ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  THE
WARMING TREND THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL REACH
A PEAK SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.  THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE IL/WI BOARDER...SO NO PCPN IS EXPECTED FOR NRN
IL/NWRN IN.  RISING HEIGHTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL
OFFSET THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND THE GENERAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR A NEAR STEADY STATE
CONDITION WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.  THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN WILL NOT BE UNTIL TUESDAY.  A SERIES OF NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND TRACK
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AT THIS POINT...THERE IS A
GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE PATTERN WITH THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
TRACKING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE LOCAL AREA...SUCH THAT THERE IS DECENT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.  PCPN TYPE COULD BE A LITTLE TRICKY DURG THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH THE LOCATION OF A RAIN/SNOW LINE...BUT OTHERWISE PCPN
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT.  THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS GENERALLY INDICATED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK PER THE
LATEST LONGER TERM MODELS...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN
LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS AS THE GLFMEX WILL REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE NRN
STREAM FLOW BY THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF COAST.  A
SECOND WAVE FOLLOWING QUICKLY ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST WAVE COULD
KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

KREIN

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* PERIOD OF THIN MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT THROUGH MID-LATE AFTN.
  CHANCE OF MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY.

* NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
  MORNING WITH SW WINDS 45 KT DEVELOPING AROUND 1500 FT AGL.

* GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY 25-30 KT.

RATZER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...

THIN MVFR STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED ALONG STALLED COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CONTINUED THINNING OF THIS DECK...LIKELY SCATTERING OUT
DURING THE REMAINDER OF MID-LATE AFTN HOURS. IN ADDITION...EAST
WINDS PICKING UP JUST A BIT 8-10 KTS.

RATZER

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 18Z...

WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING
BUT IS BECOMING STATIONARY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTH AND
INCREASE. PATCHY VFR/MVFR CIGS IN 2000-3500 FT RANGE HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
BUT PER SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE ERODING FROM THE SOUTH.
THUS MVFR CIG THAT HAD MOVED INTO RFD EARLIER SHOULD MOVE BACK
NORTH AND SUSPECT THAT CHICAGO TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR...THOUGH
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT 2500-3000 FT CIGS COULD DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY AT ORD/DPA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT AS 45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...WHICH
WILL SET UP LLWS CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST 45 KT WINDS DEVELOPING
AT AROUND 1500 FT AGL...ABOVE SURFACE INVERSION. DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY...LIKELY PEAKING IN THE
25-30 KT RANGE. WITH SUCH STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW STRATUS IN MVFR RANGE DURING THE DAY...THOUGH SOUNDINGS
DEPICT RATHER SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AND HAVE ONLY LOW CONFIDENCE
THAT SUCH CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP.

RATZER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF MVFR CIG EROSION THIS AFTN.

* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH TAF PERIOD AND LLWS TONIGHT.

* LOW IN MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY.

RATZER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SATURDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.
                 WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS.

MTF

&&

.MARINE...
131 PM CST

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING A PERIOD OF
LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER TONIGHT...AND LEADS TO AN
INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE
THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE GALES OF 35 TO 40 KT ARE LIKELY. THEREFORE...I HAVE
UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING AND RAN IT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORE WATERS ON
SATURDAY...I HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 KT.

IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UP TO 30 KT OUT OF
THE WEST OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS MY NEAR SHORE WATERS...SO I HAVE
RUN THE ADVISORY HERE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

WINDS SHOULD ABATE ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN BY EARLY MONDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. FOLLOWING THIS SURFACE HIGH...IT
APPEARS THAT SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS COULD TAKE AIM ON THE GREAT
LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL
SHORT PERIODS OF ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE...DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOWS.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 3
     PM SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
     LMZ745...10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
245 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

1026 mb high pressure over central Ontario and ridging southward
across the Ohio & TN river valleys will slip off to the east and
continue fair wx over IL tonight. Some patchy fog could develop
again tonight ne of I-74 with lingering low level moisture from
snow melt and winds staying lighter longer over eastern IL. Melting
snow pack past 2 days and currently as far south as Lincoln to
Champaign line. SE winds currently less than 10 mph over central/se
IL this afternoon but increasing to 10-15 mph near near the MS
river. A 997 mb surface low pressure along the southern Alberta
and Saskatchewan province line to continue to deepen to 993 mb as
it is located north of MN by 18Z/noon Sat. Increasing pressure
gradient over IL during tonight into Sat to increase SSE winds to
10-15 mph and gusts by Saturday morning. Lows tonight range from
upper 20s over east central IL to mid 30s from Jacksonville sw
with fair skies prevailing.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

Main forecast concern in the long term will be temperatures and precip
chances with several fast moving shortwaves forecast to push across
the region. One such wave pushing across the Pacific northwest and
will track to our north on Saturday bring gusty southwest winds and
unseasonably mild temperatures to our area. With the main dynamics
shifting well to our north and no Gulf moisutre to tap into, it appears
this frontal boundary will come through without much in the way of
precip until it shifts east of Illinois Saturday night and Sunday.
Models have trended a bit warmer behind the frontal passage on Sunday
with our low level flow more westerly than northwest, and 925-850 mb
temperature profiles a few degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday.
As a result, have bumped temps up several degrees across the forecast
area for Sunday and Monday.

The strongest shortwave of the next 3 to 5 days will track north of
us on Tuesday, with a secondary piece of energy digging southeast into
the Great Lakes. This particular shortwave is further south than the
track of the system on Saturday with the stronger lift associated with
wave closer to our area on Tuesday, but again, moisture is quite limited.
Will continue to carry slight chance POPs in the grids for Tuesday as
the trof axis shifts over our area with the low chance POPs holding
at least thru Tuesday evening as somewhat colder air filters in behind
the upper wave. As we head thru the end of next week, the overall trend
will be for 500 mb heights to lower with the main low level baroclinic
zone forecast to take shape over the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi
Valley. This should bring temperatures back closer to or just below
normal, with the main storm track and precip chances remaining to our
south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

VFR conditions generally expected to prevail across the central IL
airports through 18Z/noon Sat. The exception will be MVFR vsbys
next hour at CMI airport. HRRR models shows lingering low level
moisture along with patchy fog this evening ne of I-74 and for now
will keep fog out of TAFs though will be close at BMI and CMI tonight.
Light sse winds to increase to 5-10 kts during the afternoon and
be around 10 kts tonight. Increasing pressure gradient over IL Sat
morning as 998 mb surface low pressure over southern Canadian
rockies deepens to 992 mb to north of Lake Superior by Sat afternoon.
SSW winds 13-17 kts with gusts 18-23 kts develops during Sat morning.
Scattered cirrus clouds this afternoon and tonight with broken
cirrus clouds arriving during Sat morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...07





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 132 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CST

THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH CLOUD COVER
TODAY...RISING TEMPS INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN RETURNING COLD AIR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CLEARER SKIES OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BEING REPLACED WITH MID CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
WISCONSIN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF SEVERAL MID LEVEL
FEATURES TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HELP FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...WITH A STEADY STREAM OF
CLOUD COVER PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA. DID INCREASE CLOUD
COVER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING WITH THESE CLOUDIER SKIES
ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE THICKER CLOUD
COVER...BUT CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT AREAS ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF A ROCHELLE ILLINOIS TO RENSSELAER INDIANA LINE WOULD
OBSERVE THESE CLOUDIER SKIES. ALTHOUGH MODEL OUTPUT IS INDICATING
SOME PRECIP ALONG PERSISTENT ASCENT OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY FOR THE CWA WITH
ANY DEVELOPMENT REMAINING JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.
TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS A LITTLE DIFFICULT THIS MORNING AS OBS
CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND...OUT AHEAD OF DROPPING WEAK COLD FRONT.
EXPECT THIS FRONT TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH TODAY BUT WASHING OUT AS
IT DOES SO...WITH NO REAL AFFECT TO THE CWA TODAY.

WASHED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AS WAA
PERSISTS. THIS CONTINUED WAA WILL ACTUALLY MAKE FOR A MILDER NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH STEADY TEMPS THIS EVENING BEING
REPLACED WITH RISING TEMPS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LOW TO
MID 30S POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY SUNRISE. SKY COVER
TONIGHT MAY ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE DIFFICULT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT. WOULD EXPECT THIS
WITH RISING TEMPS/DEWPOINTS BUT NOT AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WITH
THE EXTENT OF ANY LOW STRATUS. DESPITE THE LINGERING FRONT BEING
ANOTHER SOURCE FOR ADDED RH POOLING...DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT BUT ONLY TO PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND DID ADD PATCHY FOG.

ACTIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL USHER IN ADDITIONAL WAVES OF
ENERGY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT WITH A MORE DEFINED TROUGH
APPROACHING SATURDAY MORNING. DO EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REMAIN TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA ONCE AGAIN DURING THIS TIME...BUT DO
ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH MIDDAY...IF THE LOW
STRATUS IS NOT ALREADY PRESENT. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...STILL ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY MILD DAY ON SATURDAY WITH THE
CURRENT SETUP PROVIDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR TEMPS AROUND 40 TO THE
LOW 40S.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LONG TERM...
338 AM CST

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE MILDER TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL QUICKLY CHANGE SATURDAY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS. GUIDANCE
INDICATING DEVELOPING PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH EXPECTED COLD ADVECTION AND THE
ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG PUSH OF
COLD AIR SATURDAY EVENING WILL QUICKLY SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA
BUT WITH THE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS
THE LIGHTER NATURE OF THIS PRECIP...HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS TOO
MUCH DURING THIS TIME KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS.

DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME SLIGHT WARMING WILL BE PRESENT TO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAKER
SYSTEMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH MID WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
COLDER AIRMASS WILL RETURN AND STAY DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH SNOW
THE LIKELY PRECIP TYPE.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* PATCHY MVFR CIGS 2000-3000 FT NORTHWEST OF CHICAGO THIS
  AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY.

* NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
  MORNING WITH SW WINDS 45 KT DEVELOPING AROUND 1500 FT AGL.

* GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY 25-30 KT.

RATZER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING
BUT IS BECOMING STATIONARY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTH AND
INCREASE. PATCHY VFR/MVFR CIGS IN 2000-3500 FT RANGE HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
BUT PER SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE ERODING FROM THE SOUTH.
THUS MVFR CIG THAT HAD MOVED INTO RFD EARLIER SHOULD MOVE BACK
NORTH AND SUSPECT THAT CHICAGO TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR...THOUGH
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT 2500-3000 FT CIGS COULD DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY AT ORD/DPA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT AS 45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...WHICH
WILL SET UP LLWS CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST 45 KT WINDS DEVELOPING
AT AROUND 1500 FT AGL...ABOVE SURFACE INVERSION. DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY...LIKELY PEAKING IN THE
25-30 KT RANGE. WITH SUCH STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW STRATUS IN MVFR RANGE DURING THE DAY...THOUGH SOUNDINGS
DEPICT RATHER SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AND HAVE ONLY LOW CONFIDENCE
THAT SUCH CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP.

RATZER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH IN MVFR CIGS REMAINING NORTH/NORTHWEST OF ORD/MDW
  THIS AFTERNOON.

* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH TAF PERIOD AND LLWS TONIGHT.

* LOW IN MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY.

RATZER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SATURDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.
                 WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS.

MTF

&&

.MARINE...
131 PM CST

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING A PERIOD OF
LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER TONIGHT...AND LEADS TO AN
INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE
THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE GALES OF 35 TO 40 KT ARE LIKELY. THEREFORE...I HAVE
UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING AND RAN IT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORE WATERS ON
SATURDAY...I HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 KT.

IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UP TO 30 KT OUT OF
THE WEST OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS MY NEAR SHORE WATERS...SO I HAVE
RUN THE ADVISORY HERE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

WINDS SHOULD ABATE ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN BY EARLY MONDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. FOLLOWING THIS SURFACE HIGH...IT
APPEARS THAT SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS COULD TAKE AIM ON THE GREAT
LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL
SHORT PERIODS OF ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE...DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOWS.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 AM SATURDAY TO 3 PM
     SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1159 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

Updated the forecast to remove the patchy dense fog along I-74
late this morning as fog has lifted. Also bumped up highs
especially from Jacksonville sw with upper 40s since little or no
snow pack left from I-72 south and also RUC soundings support
milder temps today. Have coolest highs of low to mid 30s from I-74
ne over deeper snack pack and temps also slower to rise this
morning due to fog. A fair amount of sun expected again rest of
today with light and variable to calm winds becoming southeast
5-10 mph during the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

A weak surface pressure trough associated with a storm system
passing by well to the north of central Illinois will produce light
SW winds shifting to W overnight, also helping to keep temperatures
slightly warmer than previously anticipated.  Most clouds expected
to remain north of central IL as well. Not seeing much visibility
reduction due to fog formation at this time as a result of mixing
and shallow moisture depth, and latest HRRR model run has backed off
the development of fog overnight as well. A surface pressure ridge
will follow for early parts of the daytime, providing weak pressure
gradients for light winds, but SSE winds will be on the increase by
late afternoon as low pressure approaches from the west. Highs for
today expected to feature little change from yesterday, with highs
mainly mid 30s to low 40s, although expecting a warmer start to the
morning due to mixing associated with the overnight pressure trough.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

Overnight lows a bit warmer tonight...and southerly winds pushing
some warmer temps and moisture back into the region after todays mix
out. Dewpoints come back and RH is steadily increasing towards dawn,
but winds should stay up enough to mitigate any fog threat.
Southerly flow at the sfc continuing the significant WAA through
Saturday, switching around to southwesterly ahead of the front as
the winds increase through the afternoon.  Warmer air resulting in
high temps well above normal...into the 40s, and near 50 in the
southeast for Saturday. The struggle for pops vs flurries in the
forecast for overnight Saturday/Sunday remains.  Models backing off
on sfc QPF, and forecast soundings remaining dry.  Convergence along
the passing boundary not that impressive, but some very low pops
remain in the far east.  Still not confident in enough widespread
measurable precip to warrant a chance pop.  That being
said...flurries a solid possibility.

Into the extended, forecast highs a few degrees above normal through
mid week, although another system potentially on Tuesday may see
those temps drop a few degrees.  Models inconsistent with the
solutions as far as timing and strength.  Timing with Tuesday
morning would make a huge difference as sfc temps below freezing
until midday and models depicting a significant warm mid layer, some
warmer than others.  Pops relatively low, with better chances in the
far north/northeast. SuperBlend dry on Day 6/Wednesday for now, but
both the GFS and ECMWF are having some issues with a pattern shift
and the resultant QPF fields are erratic.  Not willing to put too
much in the way of precip in the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

VFR conditions generally expected to prevail across the central IL
airports through 18Z/noon Sat. The exception will be MVFR vsbys
next hour at CMI airport. HRRR models shows lingering low level
moisture along with patchy fog this evening ne of I-74 and for now
will keep fog out of TAFs though will be close at BMI and CMI tonight.
Light sse winds to increase to 5-10 kts during the afternoon and
be around 10 kts tonight. Increasing pressure gradient over IL Sat
morning as 998 mb surface low pressure over southern Canadian
rockies deepens to 992 mb to north of Lake Superior by Sat afternoon.
SSW winds 13-17 kts with gusts 18-23 kts develops during Sat morning.
Scattered cirrus clouds this afternoon and tonight with broken
cirrus clouds arriving during Sat morning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1142 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CST

THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH CLOUD COVER
TODAY...RISING TEMPS INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN RETURNING COLD AIR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CLEARER SKIES OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BEING REPLACED WITH MID CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
WISCONSIN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF SEVERAL MID LEVEL
FEATURES TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HELP FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...WITH A STEADY STREAM OF
CLOUD COVER PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA. DID INCREASE CLOUD
COVER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING WITH THESE CLOUDIER SKIES
ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE THICKER CLOUD
COVER...BUT CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT AREAS ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF A ROCHELLE ILLINOIS TO RENSSELAER INDIANA LINE WOULD
OBSERVE THESE CLOUDIER SKIES. ALTHOUGH MODEL OUTPUT IS INDICATING
SOME PRECIP ALONG PERSISTENT ASCENT OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY FOR THE CWA WITH
ANY DEVELOPMENT REMAINING JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.
TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS A LITTLE DIFFICULT THIS MORNING AS OBS
CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND...OUT AHEAD OF DROPPING WEAK COLD FRONT.
EXPECT THIS FRONT TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH TODAY BUT WASHING OUT AS
IT DOES SO...WITH NO REAL AFFECT TO THE CWA TODAY.

WASHED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AS WAA
PERSISTS. THIS CONTINUED WAA WILL ACTUALLY MAKE FOR A MILDER NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH STEADY TEMPS THIS EVENING BEING
REPLACED WITH RISING TEMPS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LOW TO
MID 30S POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY SUNRISE. SKY COVER
TONIGHT MAY ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE DIFFICULT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT. WOULD EXPECT THIS
WITH RISING TEMPS/DEWPOINTS BUT NOT AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WITH
THE EXTENT OF ANY LOW STRATUS. DESPITE THE LINGERING FRONT BEING
ANOTHER SOURCE FOR ADDED RH POOLING...DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT BUT ONLY TO PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND DID ADD PATCHY FOG.

ACTIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL USHER IN ADDITIONAL WAVES OF
ENERGY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT WITH A MORE DEFINED TROUGH
APPROACHING SATURDAY MORNING. DO EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REMAIN TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA ONCE AGAIN DURING THIS TIME...BUT DO
ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH MIDDAY...IF THE LOW
STRATUS IS NOT ALREADY PRESENT. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...STILL ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY MILD DAY ON SATURDAY WITH THE
CURRENT SETUP PROVIDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR TEMPS AROUND 40 TO THE
LOW 40S.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LONG TERM...
338 AM CST

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE MILDER TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL QUICKLY CHANGE SATURDAY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS. GUIDANCE
INDICATING DEVELOPING PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH EXPECTED COLD ADVECTION AND THE
ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG PUSH OF
COLD AIR SATURDAY EVENING WILL QUICKLY SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA
BUT WITH THE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS
THE LIGHTER NATURE OF THIS PRECIP...HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS TOO
MUCH DURING THIS TIME KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS.

DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME SLIGHT WARMING WILL BE PRESENT TO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAKER
SYSTEMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH MID WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
COLDER AIRMASS WILL RETURN AND STAY DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH SNOW
THE LIKELY PRECIP TYPE.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* PATCHY MVFR CIGS 2000-3000 FT NORTHWEST OF CHICAGO THIS
  AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY.

* NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
  MORNING WITH SW WINDS 45 KT DEVELOPING AROUND 1500 FT AGL.

* GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY 25-30 KT.

RATZER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING
BUT IS BECOMING STATIONARY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTH AND
INCREASE. PATCHY VFR/MVFR CIGS IN 2000-3500 FT RANGE HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
BUT PER SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE ERODING FROM THE SOUTH.
THUS MVFR CIG THAT HAD MOVED INTO RFD EARLIER SHOULD MOVE BACK
NORTH AND SUSPECT THAT CHICAGO TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR...THOUGH
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT 2500-3000 FT CIGS COULD DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY AT ORD/DPA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT AS 45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...WHICH
WILL SET UP LLWS CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST 45 KT WINDS DEVELOPING
AT AROUND 1500 FT AGL...ABOVE SURFACE INVERSION. DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY...LIKELY PEAKING IN THE
25-30 KT RANGE. WITH SUCH STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW STRATUS IN MVFR RANGE DURING THE DAY...THOUGH SOUNDINGS
DEPICT RATHER SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AND HAVE ONLY LOW CONFIDENCE
THAT SUCH CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP.

RATZER


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH IN MVFR CIGS REMAINING NORTH/NORTHWEST OF ORD/MDW
  THIS AFTERNOON.

* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH TAF PERIOD AND LLWS TONIGHT.

* LOW IN MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY.

RATZER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SATURDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.
                 WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS.

MTF

&&

.MARINE...
150 AM CST

A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE TODAY BUT AT
SUCH A SPEED THAT THE DIMINISHING IN WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG.
WINDS WILL BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE EAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL SHARPLY TIGHTEN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
GUSTS SHOULD BE EASY TO COME BY DUE TO INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE
ESPECIALLY THE HEART OF THE OPEN WATERS. CIPS ANALOGS DO INDICATE
SOME OCCURRENCES OF 35 KT GUSTS IN ADJACENT LAND AREAS IN SIMILAR
PATTERNS. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A SHORT GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT
IT IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SCOPE OF THE ENTIRE
LAKE. THE CENTRAL THIRD IS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE GALES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WATERS DURING OR EVEN POSSIBLY BEFORE SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO FURTHER ASSESS START TIME OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL BE NEEDED.

WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OF THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS PRESENTLY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW GALES
ALTHOUGH ONE COMPUTER MODEL IS STILL ADVERTISING A NARROW WINDOW
OF 35 KT WINDS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

MTF

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 AM SATURDAY TO 3 PM
     SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO





Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1044 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

Updated the forecast to remove the patchy dense fog along I-74
late this morning as fog has lifted. Also bumped up highs
especially from Jacksonville sw with upper 40s since little or no
snow pack left from I-72 south and also RUC soundings support
milder temps today. Have coolest highs of low to mid 30s from I-74
ne over deeper snack pack and temps also slower to rise this
morning due to fog. A fair amount of sun expected again rest of
today with light and variable to calm winds becoming southeast
5-10 mph during the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

A weak surface pressure trough associated with a storm system
passing by well to the north of central Illinois will produce light
SW winds shifting to W overnight, also helping to keep temperatures
slightly warmer than previously anticipated.  Most clouds expected
to remain north of central IL as well. Not seeing much visibility
reduction due to fog formation at this time as a result of mixing
and shallow moisture depth, and latest HRRR model run has backed off
the development of fog overnight as well. A surface pressure ridge
will follow for early parts of the daytime, providing weak pressure
gradients for light winds, but SSE winds will be on the increase by
late afternoon as low pressure approaches from the west. Highs for
today expected to feature little change from yesterday, with highs
mainly mid 30s to low 40, although expecting a warmer start to the
morning due to mixing associated with the overnight pressure trough.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

Overnight lows a bit warmer tonight...and southerly winds pushing
some warmer temps and moisture back into the region after todays mix
out. Dewpoints come back and RH is steadily increasing towards dawn,
but winds should stay up enough to mitigate any fog threat.
Southerly flow at the sfc continuing the significant WAA through
Saturday, switching around to southwesterly ahead of the front as
the winds increase through the afternoon.  Warmer air resulting in
high temps well above normal...into the 40s, and near 50 in the
southeast for Saturday. The struggle for pops vs flurries in the
forecast for overnight Saturday/Sunday remains.  Models backing off
on sfc QPF, and forecast soundings remaining dry.  Convergence along
the passing boundary not that impressive, but some very low pops
remain in the far east.  Still not confident in enough widespread
measurable precip to warrant a chance pop.  That being
said...flurries a solid possibility.

Into the extended, forecast highs a few degrees above normal through
mid week, although another system potentially on Tuesday may see
those temps drop a few degrees.  Models inconsistent with the
solutions as far as timing and strength.  Timing with Tuesday
morning would make a huge difference as sfc temps below freezing
until midday and models depicting a significant warm mid layer, some
warmer than others.  Pops relatively low, with better chances in the
far north/northeast. SuperBlend dry on Day 6/Wednesday for now, but
both the GFS and ECMWF are having some issues with a pattern shift
and the resultant QPF fields are erratic.  Not willing to put too
much in the way of precip in the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

Mainly VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours, however
areas MVFR/local IFR fog affecting KPIA-KBMI-KCMI northward until
16Z. Winds generally light/variable to westerly up to 8 kts
through morning, becoming SE and increasing through afternoon,
reaching 10-12 kts by 00Z Saturday. Cloud cover minimal though
the period, with a gradual increase in cirrus.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 955 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP
MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.UPDATE...BAND OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THESE SHOULD SPREAD INTO OUR REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  ALL IN ALL THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE...MAINLY TO DELAY THE CHANGE OVER TO MIXED
PRECIPITATION AN HOUR OR TWO GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WELL
ABOVE FREEZING.  STILL LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S MOST SECTIONS WITH LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HI-RES GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR BOTH HIGHLIGHT LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING
OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET
PULLING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WITH AN
UPPER WAVE TRAILING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING THAT PRECIP INITIALLY WILL
FALL AS A LIGHT RAIN. LOW LEVEL THERMALS WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
SNOW MIXING IN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
AFTER 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY IMPACTS FROM LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST
LOCATIONS ALL NIGHT. COULD SEE A TENTH OR SO OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS
BY DAYBREAK.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
PERSISTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT PEAK GUSTS AT 35-40MPH
THROUGH SUNSET...DROPPING BACK TO 25-30MPH DURING THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING BELOW 20MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEPARTS
OFF TO THE EAST.

TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE OUTPACED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED LOWS TONIGHT.
GENERALLY WENT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR LOWS FOR THIS
REASON...WITH ALL BUT THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY ABOVE 32F THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AND PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES TO LINGER OVER EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE MORNING AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT DIVES INTO THE BACK END
OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

PRIMARY ISSUE FOR SUNDAY WILL FOCUS ON THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH
CONSIDERING THE COLD ADVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY
SCOURING OUT DURING THE DAY. OP GFS AND NAM BOTH MAINTAIN A
HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF MOISTURE AT 925MB INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
AIR FINALLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BY LATE DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED
PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA AND HELD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND INTO THE EVENING
FURTHER EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING BY TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD FINALLY ENABLE SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

WARM ADVECTION RETURNS MONDAY IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U S AND AN UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING
WITH IT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH BULK OF THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT
HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY
SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF PREDOMINANT
LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED IMPACT FROM CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...LEANED TOWARDS
COOLER METMOS FOR HIGHS. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MAVMOS FOR MONDAY
HIGHS...THEN UNDERCUT ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP. TOOK A MOS
BLEND ON LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE DETAILS OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEMS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT. HAD TO ALTER
SUPERBLEND/S POPS...OTHERWISE GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO IT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES.

LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONE
SYSTEM EXITS. FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEPT A DRY FORECAST AND
REMOVED ANY SUPERBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SAKE OF
CONTINUITY.

ON THURSDAY SUPERBLEND IS DRY BUT AGAIN FOR SAKE OF CONTINUITY KEPT
SOME SMALL POPS IN THE FAR EAST. ON FRIDAY...12Z GFS AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL BRING A CLIPPER THROUGH THE AREA. 12Z ECMWF IS DRY.
SUPERBLEND IS DRY...BUT WITH 2 MODELS SHOWING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180300Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 925 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE ROUTES WILL BRING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW
TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT ANY ONE POINT AT ANY ONE TIME IS
LOW. THE USE OF VICINITY IN THE TAFS CAPTURES THIS BETTER THAN
EXPLICITLY FORECASTING PRECIPITATION. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

WINDS ARE GOING VEER FROM SOUTH TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN WEST
SUNDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE
FREQUENT AND RISE TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AS COLD AIR FROM ALOFT MIXES
TO THE SURFACE.



&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 925 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP
MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

FANTASTIC AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION AS A COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT OVERACHIEVING TEMPS
TO THE REGION. 20Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S WHERE LINGERING
SNOW COVER PERSISTED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES TO EVEN SOME MID 50S OVER
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGH
SUNSET...WITH SKIES QUICKLY BECOMING CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS APPROACHES. HI-RES
GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR BOTH HIGHLIGHT LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PULLING
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WITH AN UPPER
WAVE TRAILING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING THAT PRECIP INITIALLY WILL FALL AS A
LIGHT RAIN. LOW LEVEL THERMALS WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW MIXING
IN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AFTER 06Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY IMPACTS FROM LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS
ALL NIGHT. COULD SEE A TENTH OR SO OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
PERSISTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT PEAK GUSTS AT 35-40MPH
THROUGH SUNSET...DROPPING BACK TO 25-30MPH DURING THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING BELOW 20MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEPARTS
OFF TO THE EAST.

TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE OUTPACED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED LOWS TONIGHT.
GENERALLY WENT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR LOWS FOR THIS
REASON...WITH ALL BUT THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY ABOVE 32F THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AND PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES TO LINGER OVER EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE MORNING AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT DIVES INTO THE BACK END
OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

PRIMARY ISSUE FOR SUNDAY WILL FOCUS ON THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH
CONSIDERING THE COLD ADVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY
SCOURING OUT DURING THE DAY. OP GFS AND NAM BOTH MAINTAIN A
HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF MOISTURE AT 925MB INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
AIR FINALLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BY LATE DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED
PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA AND HELD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND INTO THE EVENING
FURTHER EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING BY TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD FINALLY ENABLE SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

WARM ADVECTION RETURNS MONDAY IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U S AND AN UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING
WITH IT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH BULK OF THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT
HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY
SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF PREDOMINANT
LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED IMPACT FROM CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...LEANED TOWARDS
COOLER METMOS FOR HIGHS. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MAVMOS FOR MONDAY
HIGHS...THEN UNDERCUT ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP. TOOK A MOS
BLEND ON LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE DETAILS OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEMS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT. HAD TO ALTER
SUPERBLEND/S POPS...OTHERWISE GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO IT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES.

LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONE
SYSTEM EXITS. FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEPT A DRY FORECAST AND
REMOVED ANY SUPERBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SAKE OF
CONTINUITY.

ON THURSDAY SUPERBLEND IS DRY BUT AGAIN FOR SAKE OF CONTINUITY KEPT
SOME SMALL POPS IN THE FAR EAST. ON FRIDAY...12Z GFS AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL BRING A CLIPPER THROUGH THE AREA. 12Z ECMWF IS DRY.
SUPERBLEND IS DRY...BUT WITH 2 MODELS SHOWING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180300Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 925 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE ROUTES WILL BRING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW
TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT ANY ONE POINT AT ANY ONE TIME IS
LOW. THE USE OF VICINITY IN THE TAFS CAPTURES THIS BETTER THAN
EXPLICITLY FORECASTING PRECIPITATION. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

WINDS ARE GOING VEER FROM SOUTH TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN WEST
SUNDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE
FREQUENT AND RISE TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AS COLD AIR FROM ALOFT MIXES
TO THE SURFACE.



&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JK

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 558 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY COLDER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BRIEFLY WARM UP AGAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
BRINGS LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY WITH PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. THESE WERE SHIFTING EAST AND EXPECT THEM TO
BE LARGELY OUT OF DELAWARE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES BY 21-22Z. SKIES
WERE SUNNY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS WE ENJOY OUR WARMEST
DAY IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS FOR MANY. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH AT 20Z.

CLOUDS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE
NEAR TERM AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATER THIS EVENING. RAP AND
HRRR BOTH SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE 925-950MB
LAYER AFTER 02-03Z OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY. BOTH THE NAM
AND OP GFS HINT AT THIS AS WELL. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST AS A PERIOD
OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY
SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH RAP/HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A SHARP INVERSION
PRESENT AT 1000FT AND LOWER. ONE MITIGATING FACTOR THAT WOULD KEEP
ANY FOG LIMITED IS THE INCREASE IN SURFACE FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL KEEP ANY FOG MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR INTO THE EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS...WITH WARM ADVECTION COMMENCING AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT LOWS TO OCCUR MOST AREAS BY LATE EVENING WITH STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THEREAFTER. ENDED UP SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING
MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RETURNING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S BY
12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY STANDS A STRONG CHANCE TO BE THE PICK DAY OF THE MONTH SO
FAR...DESPITE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY. 40-50KT 850MB JET WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
ENSURE A BREEZY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION WITH SUSTAINEDS NEAR 20MPH
AND GUSTS INTO THE 30-35MPH RANGE.

FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
CONSENSUS STARTING TO ZERO IN ON A BAND OF PRECIP SWINGING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...STARTING FIRST AS RAIN THEN MIXING WITH AND
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS LOW LEVEL THERMALS BECOME SUPPORTIVE.
STILL THINK SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS
FAVOR HANGING ONTO LOWER CLOUDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY WITH
SLOW CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
QUICKLY BACK IN BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION RESUMING. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

TEMPS...CONSIDERING TEMP PERFORMANCE SO FAR TODAY AND EXPECTATION OF
A LOT OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY...PREFER LEANING CLOSER TO THE WARMER
MAVMOS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MANY.
TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND
LINGERING CLOUDS. UNDERCUT AGGRESSIVE MAVMOS FOR MONDAY AS WELL...
BUT STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPS RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. TOOK MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 219 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

A COUPLE OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG
TERM. MOISTURE/FORCING ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH EITHER FEATURE...SO
WILL KEEP POPS LOW.

THE FIRST ONE ALSO HAS A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH IT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER...SO LIMITED ANY FREEZING RAIN TO THE NORTH
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY TUESDAY...WITH JUST RAIN OTHERWISE.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE SECOND UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ON THURSDAY. AGAIN WITH
LIMITED FORCING/MOISTURE JUST WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK COOL ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW.

THERE WILL BE A GENERAL COOLING TREND DURING THE EXTENDED AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 558 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE 04Z-14Z IN OUTLYING TAF
SITES...OTHERWISE VFR.

SATELLITE AND WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATED CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREAS
WITH SOME MID CLOUDS TO THE NORTH.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.  MAIN
ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG LATE EVENING ON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME LATER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE FOG
THREAT.

ON SATURDAY MAIN ISSUE WILL BE MODERATE WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY.

A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY EVENING
CAUSING A LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY COLDER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BRIEFLY WARM UP AGAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
BRINGS LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY WITH PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. THESE WERE SHIFTING EAST AND EXPECT THEM TO
BE LARGELY OUT OF DELAWARE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES BY 21-22Z. SKIES
WERE SUNNY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS WE ENJOY OUR WARMEST
DAY IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS FOR MANY. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH AT 20Z.

CLOUDS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE
NEAR TERM AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATER THIS EVENING. RAP AND
HRRR BOTH SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE 925-950MB
LAYER AFTER 02-03Z OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY. BOTH THE NAM
AND OP GFS HINT AT THIS AS WELL. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST AS A PERIOD
OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY
SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH RAP/HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A SHARP INVERSION
PRESENT AT 1000FT AND LOWER. ONE MITIGATING FACTOR THAT WOULD KEEP
ANY FOG LIMITED IS THE INCREASE IN SURFACE FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL KEEP ANY FOG MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR INTO THE EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS...WITH WARM ADVECTION COMMENCING AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT LOWS TO OCCUR MOST AREAS BY LATE EVENING WITH STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THEREAFTER. ENDED UP SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING
MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RETURNING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S BY
12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY STANDS A STRONG CHANCE TO BE THE PICK DAY OF THE MONTH SO
FAR...DESPITE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY. 40-50KT 850MB JET WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
ENSURE A BREEZY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION WITH SUSTAINEDS NEAR 20MPH
AND GUSTS INTO THE 30-35MPH RANGE.

FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
CONSENSUS STARTING TO ZERO IN ON A BAND OF PRECIP SWINGING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...STARTING FIRST AS RAIN THEN MIXING WITH AND
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS LOW LEVEL THERMALS BECOME SUPPORTIVE.
STILL THINK SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS
FAVOR HANGING ONTO LOWER CLOUDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY WITH
SLOW CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
QUICKLY BACK IN BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION RESUMING. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

TEMPS...CONSIDERING TEMP PERFORMANCE SO FAR TODAY AND EXPECTATION OF
A LOT OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY...PREFER LEANING CLOSER TO THE WARMER
MAVMOS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MANY.
TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND
LINGERING CLOUDS. UNDERCUT AGGRESSIVE MAVMOS FOR MONDAY AS WELL...
BUT STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPS RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. TOOK MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 219 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

A COUPLE OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG
TERM. MOISTURE/FORCING ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH EITHER FEATURE...SO
WILL KEEP POPS LOW.

THE FIRST ONE ALSO HAS A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH IT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER...SO LIMITED ANY FREEZING RAIN TO THE NORTH
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY TUESDAY...WITH JUST RAIN OTHERWISE.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE SECOND UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ON THURSDAY. AGAIN WITH
LIMITED FORCING/MOISTURE JUST WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK COOL ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW.

THERE WILL BE A GENERAL COOLING TREND DURING THE EXTENDED AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/2100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 319 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG DEVELOPING DURING THE NIGHT AT MOST
SITES...OTHERWISE VFR.

LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS. DURING THE EVENING...LIGHT FOG WILL DEVELOP AT MOST SITES
CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THIS SHOULD PREVENT FOG
FROM GETTING TOO DENSE.

ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KT EXPECTED BY
18Z. HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FOR KIND 30 HOUR TAF. FOG
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THESE WINDS AND CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

ONE ALTERNATE SCENARIO TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT COULD CREATE SOME LOW STRATUS OR THICKER FOG AT KLAF DUE
TO SNOW COVER. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50/TDUD

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

 1137 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

SURFACE FRONT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS IOWA TODAY AS THERMAL RIDGE FROM
THE PLAINS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.  CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE WITH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES AREA-
WIDE.  CURRENTLY...PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING IN PORTIONS OF THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
COMBINING TO ALLOW FOG FORMATION.  THE FOG HAS FOUND IT DIFFICULT TO
PERSIST WITH ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
WITH DRY CONDITIONS JUST ALOFT OF THE SURFACE.  THEREFORE...IT HAS
BEEN DIFFICULT FOR THE FOG TO DEEPEN AND EXPAND TO ANY EXTENT SO
FAR.  HOWEVER...WITH A FEW HOURS OF NIGHT LEFT...LIKELY TO SEE SOME
LIMITED EXPANSION IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM.
OTHERWISE...THE AREA OF STATUS ACROSS WESTERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA. THIS WILL LIMIT SUNSHINE ALONG WITH HEATING WITH
READINGS LIKELY ONLY REACHING FREEZING BY MID AFTERNOON.  FARTHER
SOUTHWEST...WHERE MORE SUN WILL OCCUR...SNOW COVER IS LIMITED AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY AFTERNOON.  THIS AREA IS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OTTUMWA TO AMES AND SAC CITY.  MOST
RECENT RUN OF HRRR WOULD PROJECT EVEN SOME MID TO UPPER 50S IN OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST BY 21Z.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

WAA WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH MODELS TRENDING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER...HAVE INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHER PLAIN STATES...WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT.
SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK MOVING. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING PRECIPITATION FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME INDICATIONS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
BE FORCING ARRIVES AHEAD OF BEST MOISTURE...WITH A LARGE DRY LAYER
IN PLACE AT MID LEVELS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.
THOUGH...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
NORTH...WHICH MAY BE INCREASED WITH MELTING OF SNOWPACK...THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP
FORECAST DRY. WINDS WILL BECOME ANOTHER CONCERN SATURDAY AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40KTS...AND WILL SEE HIGH
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. ATTM WINDS
APPEAR TO BE NEAR BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WAA WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHTLY WARMER TREND FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 4C ACROSS CENTRAL CWA...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASE
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH. PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED FOR BEGINNING OF WEEK.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF SYSTEM
SET TO PUSH SOUTH...AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. MODELS
DROP WEAK WAVE SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...THOUGH DIFFER ON
TIMING...PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM. GFS IS SLOWER THOUGH
STRONGER. AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO PLAY INTO SYSTEM...THOUGH
MODELS INDICATING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION ATTM. CURRENT
TRENDS TRACK SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF IOWA. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. DO
NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF THIS
PRECIPITATION GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE A
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN TOO AS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTH THOUGH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE
NORTH. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH WAVE...AND COULD SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT
WITH TREND FOR FASTER PROGRESSION FOR NOW. BEHIND SYSTEM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...THOUGH WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE JAN.

&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRATUS AND
FOG ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
MAKING SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA AROUND MCW/ALO...HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY IS FAIRLY LOW AND ONLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ADVERTISED
IN THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 220 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015

AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS SOME CIRRUS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES REACHED THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ARE FROM THE WEST BUT QUITE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH WITH SOME
STATIONS REPORTING CALM WINDS. ALOFT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
IS GLIDING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN THE CIRRUS. ANOTHER
STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED OVER MONTANA AND IDAHO.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CALM WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. SKIES SHOULD CLOUD UP LATER TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN
DISTURBANCE SPREADS IN FROM WYOMING. THIS RESULTS IN NEAR-STAGNANT
TEMPERATURES THAT FALL EXTREMELY SLOW AND REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (NORMALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS).

BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE SUNRISE...THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR
NORTHWEST FORCES A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS SOLUTION HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT IN SEVERAL GFS...WRF ARW...WRF NMM AND HRRR RUNS.
WINDS WEAKEN SOME FURTHER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN SPEED ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING IS REALIZED.
ALOFT...WINDS HAVE WEAKENED FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE BUT STILL SHOW A
50-60 KT JET 1 KM ABOVE THE SURFACE. INTERESTING ITEM TO NOTE IS
THAT THE STRONGEST JET OF WINDS SHOULD SLIDE FURTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. THIS MEANS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW
EXPECTED GENERALLY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER...IF NOT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME MIXING DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY STRONG
WITH FORECAST LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-7 C/KM. OVERALL LOWERED WIND
SPEEDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES BUT STRONGEST WIND GUSTS MAY
STILL EXCEED 40 KNOTS...OR 46 MPH.

ANOTHER NOTE ABOUT TOMORROW`S WINDS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CONCERNS
THAT SOME BLOWING DUST MAY BE OBSERVED. CHECKED THE SOIL MOISTURE
THIS MORNING AND IT IS QUITE WET. PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS OVER THE
LAST 30 DAYS INDICATES THAT WE HAVE BEEN AROUND 0.5" TO 1.0" ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS DOES NOT EVEN INCLUDE THE WIDESPREAD 0.75" TO 1.00"
RAINS RECEIVED ON DECEMBER 14TH...2014. AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS INDICATES ONE PLUME OF DUST TOMORROW
AROUND HILL CITY...KANSAS. WHILE THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE...THE DUST
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE BLOWING DUST ANYWHERE ELSE SO IT IS
QUITE ISOLATED. BY THIS REASONING AND THAT WE ARE FORECASTING LOWER
WIND SPEEDS OVER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS WITH BLOWING
DUST...HAVE REMOVED BLOWING DUST FROM THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS BRINGING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. ONE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY BUT MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO WITH THE PLAINS DRY
PROBABLY DUE TO LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECT.
MODELS SHOW A BIT MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM SO WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE DRY WITH LACK OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE FOR LIFT. BY
WEDNESDAY MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF
SHOWING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH ASSOCIATED
LIGHT SNOWFALL BUT THE GFS DRY...SO WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIM TO NONE IN THAT PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2015

CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS A COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...BETWEEN 8Z-11Z. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACK SOUTHWEST BRIEFLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE VEERING NORTHWEST/INCREASING IN SPEED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT PASSES...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
SPEED WITH STRONGER GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING
IS REALIZED BY 15Z-16Z. AS FOR CLOUDS...CIRRUS IS SPREADING IN
PRESENTLY AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT EXPECTED AROUND FRONT
PASSAGE. CLOUDS CLEAR AGAIN BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 313 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

Recent water vapor imagery and RAP analysis showing a weak upper
wave moving east across South Dakota and Nebraska, with a much
stronger wave exiting the Pacific Northwest into the Northern
Rockies. Deep west to southwest flow has resulted over Kansas with
dry and warm lower tropospheric conditions and breezy winds
dominating.

With fairly progressive flow in place, the upper waves make quick
progress through the region through Saturday afternoon. The first
wave brings some high clouds through this evening, but more and
somewhat deeper cloud approaches late tonight and exits Saturday
afternoon with the stronger wave. Rather strong lift exits ahead of
this wave, but the still dry mid to lower levels should keep
precipitation in check. Wind speeds diminish a bit this evening but
pick up again Saturday as deeper mixing occurs in strong cold air
advection around 850mb. Winds aloft don`t quite support Advisory
levels but could be close in the north and west. The mixing and only
modified airmass should still allow temps to reach into the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

For Saturday night through Monday, models continue to show a warm
and dry weather pattern with northwest flow aloft and low level
trajectories either from the southwest or west. This low level
pattern does not favor very good moisture return. Therefore think
precip chances are pretty close to zero. Have again trended temps
warmer for Sunday and Monday. Given today`s temps, think there is
a chance the forecast for Sunday may be a little to cool. Although
Models do not show 925MB temps quite as warm as today. Therefore
have kept highs generally around 60. A frontal boundary should
move through the area late Monday. At this time, think it will be
late enough in the day that temps warm into the mid and upper
50s.

Monday night through Friday should see a cooling trend as the
models transition the pattern from northwest flow to more of a
broad cyclonic split flow aloft, as energy tries to dig southwest
into AZ and NM. There should be weak perturbations move across the
forecast area through this period. However with a modified ridge
of high pressure from the Pacific northwest building into the
central plains, there is not much opportunity for moisture to
advect north. The ECMWF remains the only solution to bring very
light QPF into parts of the area, and it has not had the best run
to run continuity of late. Therefore have maintained a dry
forecast through the end of the week. Reinforcing surges of high
pressure from the north and northwest should keep temps closer to
climo with lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Issued at 312 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

Temps and dewpoint values on the extreme of even the most aggressive
guidance this afternoon have pushed fire weather conditions in to
Red Flag levels in some locations this afternoon. Expect conditions
to steadily improve in the next few hours with mixing weakening with
diurnal trends. Saturday brings another day of concern. Winds,
northwest this time,  will be stronger behind the cold front and
have high confidence in lower temperatures and moderate confidence
in dewpoints thus moderate confidence in humidities. Though
specifics are not certain, quick falls in dewpoints seen today are
much less likely in this regime. RH values are still likely to fall
to into the 30-38% range in the mid afternoon, with winds gusting
from 30-40mph supporting Very High rangeland fire danger.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

VFR conditions expected. SSW winds increase a bit in the next few
hours with minor decreases and backing ahead of a cold front.
Increasing winds aloft should result in wind shear for much of the
overnight, with front`s approach weakening shear just ahead of it
and NW winds taking hold at the end of the forecast as mixing
increases.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 1242 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015


.AVIATION...

VARIABLE SKY CONDITIONS AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH THE FRONTAL INVERSION LOCKED IN PLACE. THE
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WITH A
GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING AFTER 6Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BE DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET FEATURE PUSHES TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE GREATER SOUTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY AND ADVECTIVE
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO GREATER SATURATION TOWARDS 12Z.

FOR DTW...RESTABLISHMENT OF THE TOP OF THE INVERSION THIS
AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW CIGS TO DEVELOP AGAIN RIGHT AT THE 5000 FT AGL
THRESHOLD FOR DTW. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT
IN THE MIDLEVELS WHICH BRINGS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS BY
12Z TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 356 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LITTLE FANFARE...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/SUPPORT IS
ALREADY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER AND WASH OUT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS TO BE HUNG UP ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO ACCESS EXACTLY HOW MUCH COLD AIR
WILL BE ABLE TO FILTER INTO SOUTHERN LOW MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE LOWER
TEENS...WHICH SUGGESTS TEMPS SHOULD HOLD/FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.
RAW SURFACE TEMPS OUT OF THE NAM/RAP13 EVEN SUGGEST TEENS WILL
ENCOMPASS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA POST 12Z. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATING STEEP ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/SUPERSATURATION WITH
RESPECT TO ICE TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES.

THERE WILL BE A MODEST RETURN OF MOISTURE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKS THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND ARRIVES TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY...BUT
THE INITIALLY DRY MID LEVELS (850 DEW PT DEPRESSIONS OF 20+ C) WILL
NEED TO SATURATE...WHICH LOOKS TO BE A CHALLENGE...PER 00Z EURO. GFS
IS INDICATING THE BEST MOISTURE AND TRIES TO TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT PREFERENCE WILL LEAN TOWARD DRIER SOLUTION...BUT WILL
INCLUDE A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. NONE-THE-LESS...BEFORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
INCREASE...SHOULD BE SET UP FOR GOOD FALL IN TEMPS DURING THE
EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE IN PLACE. INHERITED TEMPS LOOKED
REASONABLE...MID/UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS THUMB REGION TO AROUND
10/LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL BE ON ITS
WAY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TO START SATURDAY. THIS WILL TOUCH
OFF A ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS MAX TEMPS MAKE A RUN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S FOLLOWED BY READINGS ABOUT A CATEGORY LOWER SUNDAY
FOLLOWING THE ASSOCIATED MODEST COLD FRONT. THE MOISTURE SUPPLY WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL BE LEAN ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL TO A CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY IS
SHOWN DRIVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW WITH A STRONG LOOK IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. IT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM MATCHING MODEL TIMING OF REACHING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL THEN LATCH ON TO THE FRONT STALLED
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND PULL IT STEADILY NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO AND LIMITED BY THE LACK OF
GULF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL BE ENSURED BY
THE BROAD REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ON THE ENTIRE
GULF COAST THROUGH MID ATLANTIC. MODEL PLAN DEPICTIONS AND CROSS
SECTIONS OF THETA-E INDICATE A SHARP BUT SHALLOWLY SLOPED FRONTAL
STRUCTURE CONTAINING SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AROUND 3 G/KG ON THE 285K
SURFACE...NOT BAD FOR AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...BUT WITH THE
BULK OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT CAPABLE OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CONDITIONS IN SE MICHIGAN WILL RESEMBLE MORE
OF WARM SECTOR REGION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH IN TIME FOR MAX TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN INTO THE UPPER
30S  BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE OHIO BORDER TO MID 30S NORTHERN
THUMB.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA SATURDAY EVENING TO
HELP WRING OUT SOME MOISTURE FROM THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE/PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
FRONT WILL THEN BRING ENOUGH COLD AIR BACK INTO THE LOW LEVELS FOR A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCE POP CATEGORY IS
MAINTAINED FOR NOW AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCONSISTENT LEVELS
OF SATURATION DURING THE EVENING BUT WITH A THERMAL PROFILE
SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT RAIN. THE SOUNDINGS AND MEAN RH FIELDS TOGETHER
SUGGEST JUST POCKETS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR ALOFT AND STRONGER
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASE FORCING AND LOWER
STABILITY ENOUGH FOR BROADER COVERAGE.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE ON THE ACTIVE SIDE IN TERMS OF SMALL
SCALE SHORT WAVES/CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT WILL HAVE MODERATE MOISTURE
SUPPLY BUT LOW PREDICTABILITY. SO FAR...NO BIG ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS
ARE INDICATED UNTIL POSSIBLY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH LAKE HURON AND
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING. MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND WILL HAVE
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRAY GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE...BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY IN FAVOR OF HIGH PRESSURE BY
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WHICH WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WIND FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT WIND WILL INCREASE
WITHIN THE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE LAKE AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WHICH WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS BEGINNING
SATURDAY MORNING TROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT WILL THEN BRING ENOUGH STABILITY OVER THE WATER TO BRING WIND
BELOW GALES BUT STILL ELEVATED NEAR 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE COLD
FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTS AT 30
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ361>363-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

 617 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2015

.UPDATE...
WITH THE THICK CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE AREA...HAVE UPDATED THE SKY
GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS RAP SOLUTION WHICH WAS HANDLING
THE CIRRUS WELL. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS GOOD...GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATES GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING AROUND THE FOOTHILLS. REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

WILL CONTINUE WITH A WINDY AND WARM PATTERN INTO MONDAY BEFORE A
COOL DOWN ARRIVES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STRONG PUSH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE JET STREAM THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN
SNOW TO WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND CRAZY
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ELSEWHERE IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY. HAVE 6 TO 10 INCHES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AROUND COOKE CITY AND THE WEST SLOPES OF
THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS. DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OUT INTO THE
PLAINS LOW...BUT NOT ZERO DUE TO THE MOISTURE SURGE OFF THE
PACIFIC. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MAINLY BE RAIN OR SNOW...HOWEVER
LOCALIZED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS STARTING LATE TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THAT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON TO NYE CORRIDOR
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 60 TO 65 MPH EXPECTED AT
TIMES. MAY NEED ADDITIONAL WIND HIGHLITES FROM BIG TIMBER TO
HARLOWTON FOR TOMORROW AS WELL. CURRENTLY HAVE WINDS JUST BELOW
CRITERIA FOR THESE AREAS AND WILL LET THE MID SHIFT MAKE A FINAL
DETERMINATION. FOR THE PLAINS THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THE SUNDAYS TROF.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 12 UTC REMAINED RELATIVELY
AGREEABLE WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...WHICH
FEATURES A 500-MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THAT
EVENTUALLY FLEXES TO THE EAST FOR AT LEAST A TIME BY LATE WEEK.
THAT WILL BOTH GENERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AIDE
DOWNSLOPE/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OF THE AIR MASS. CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE RUN USING THE 00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAS AN 85
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF ABOVE-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BY LATE
WEEK...SO WHILE WE USED A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE FORECAST...WE MADE SURE FORECAST HIGHS WERE AT LEAST
AS WARM AS LATE JANUARY NORMALS. WE THUS HAVE FORECAST HIGHS AT OR
ABOVE 40 F IN MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND EVEN
SATURDAY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...WE HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST TUESDAY WHEN GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MT. A DRY FORECAST IS THEN IN PLACE
THE REST OF THE WEEK...BEFORE A LOW SNOW SHOWER CHANCE RETURNS FOR
NEXT SATURDAY IN RESPECT TO A MODEST WAVE SHOWN BY THE 12 UTC
ECMWF. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER...BUT WE ARE
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
INCREASE THOUGH AND THERE/S A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY AFTER 06 UTC. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT...ESPECIALLY AT KLVM WHERE GUSTS OF
50+ KT ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE
THE GROUND IN SOUTHEASTERN MT AND THUS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A
THREAT IN PLACES LIKE KMLS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/046 031/042 023/034 015/031 021/039 025/040 027/040
    12/O    22/O    12/J    11/N    11/N    11/N    12/W
LVM 036/049 031/041 022/037 015/035 020/042 025/043 026/045
    44/O    23/O    22/W    11/B    00/N    11/N    11/N
HDN 026/045 030/042 021/034 008/031 017/039 019/040 020/039
    12/O    22/O    12/W    11/B    11/B    11/B    12/W
MLS 026/044 031/041 024/035 017/031 020/037 024/039 024/038
    02/O    05/O    32/W    21/B    11/B    11/B    12/W
4BQ 025/045 031/041 022/034 015/032 018/039 023/040 022/040
    02/O    23/O    32/W    11/B    11/B    11/B    12/W
BHK 023/043 029/039 023/033 018/031 018/036 023/037 022/037
    02/R    05/O    33/J    21/E    11/N    11/B    12/W
SHR 027/048 027/041 019/032 009/031 013/040 019/040 019/039
    01/E    22/O    12/J    11/B    11/B    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

 502 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CIGS HAVE ERODED AWAY THE PAST FEW HRS ACROSS THE NW PORTION
OF THE STATE BUT CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR A RETURN VISIT LATER THIS
EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A LITTLE MORE
DRYING TODAY WILL HAVE DISSIPATED SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THE LAST SYSTEM MOVED IN SO EXPECTING
LESS DIRE CONDITIONS OR MORE IMPORTANTLY...SHORTER IN DURATION.
REGARDLESS...FMN WILL BE IMPACTED TONIGHT AND EXPECTING LIFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE VFR NEXT 24 HRS WITH PERIODS OF HIGHER
CIRRUS CLOUDS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. LIKE LAST NIGHT...VISIBILITIES
MAY FALL BELOW ONE HALF MILE CREATING A THIN GLAZE OF ICE ON
ROADWAYS. ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY WINDS WILL AID IN WARMING UP
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMTH
WILL REMAIN IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
WILL YO-YO BACK DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY THANKS TO A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION RETURNS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE ONCE AGAIN PLAGUED NW NM TODAY. THOUGH THE
FOG LIFTED AT OR SHORTLY BEFORE NOON...THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED
KEEPING TEMPERATURES QUITE COLD AND WELL BELOW ANY GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
GIVEN THAT THEY DID NOT GET OUT OF THE MUCK TODAY...IT IS HIGHLY
LIKELY THAT THE SAME WILL HAPPEN AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR PROGS SUPPORT THIS...AND THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FROM 9PM TONIGHT TIL 10AM SUN FOR ZONES
501-502-504. FOR ZONE 504...THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE WEST/NW OF
THE CONTDVD.

MEANWHILE...THE BACK DOOR FRONT OR WIND SHIFT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED
BEHIND IT. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO NOTED BEHIND IT...THUS AS
OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS BACK DOOR FRONTS...NO LOW CLOUDS OR FOG ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE NW MOST LIKELY
AGAIN...AND ADDITIONALLY...A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN...WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR FARMINGTON AND SURROUNDING AREAS FOR MAX TEMPS.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS
ALLOWING FOR BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY WINDS. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR BETWEEN 5 AND NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. IN FACT...EXCEPT FOR THE FMN AREA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS SHOULD ALSO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THOUGH NOT AS
MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE QUITE WARM...THOUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS NW NM.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS IN STORE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TUESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES
FROM MONDAYS READINGS. WESTERN AREAS WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL...THANKS TO A VEIL OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE BACK DOOR FRONT LOOKS TO BE REINFORCED LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN TEMPS CONTINUING TO DROP. WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT ORGANIZING STORM
SYSTEM. MODELS INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
INTO AZ OUT OF NW FLOW ALOFT LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS
INDICATE A BAND OF MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NM ALONG THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WEDNESDAY AFTN...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN IF
ANY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS.  THE EC IS THE MOST
BULLISH ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP...BUT EVEN THEN WOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHAT WILL HAPPEN THEREAFTER. THE
GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM CLOSING OFF NEAR THE BOOTHEEL WHILE THE EC
CONTINUES TO MIGRATE THE TROUGH EASTWARD. BASED ON THE
LATTER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY END BY FRIDAY...THOUGH IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT...PRECIP COULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM ENERGY DROPPING INTO
THE REGION BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS WONKY AT BEST. SIDED MORE WITH THE
DRIER EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE FRI AND BEYOND FOR NOW. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE VENTILATION RATES...WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY POOR TO FAIR.

COLD FRONT MADE IT THROUGH ROSWELL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SHROUD THE NORTHWEST TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE IT IS
SUNNY AND RATHER COMFORTABLE FOR MID JANUARY.

TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU. DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN AS WELL
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE EAST BUT 70S AND 80S IN THE WEST.

A NICE DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH
FILTERED BY HIGH CLOUDS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ONTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HIGHER AT MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS TROUGH. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST...WHILE ELSEWHERE
THEY WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S AND 30S...40S IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE
CLOUDS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY ONCE AGAIN AND HOLD DOWN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE THE
VENT RATES THAT WILL BE POOR IN MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
AREAS...WITH SOME FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST OWING TO THE WINDS
HELPING RAISE THE MIXING HEIGHTS SOME. NIGHTTIME RH RECOVERIES WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S AND 60S IN THE EAST AND MOSTLY BETWEEN 80 AND
100 PERCENT IN THE WEST.

THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE
AND EVEN MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT COULD REACH THE NORTHEAST AND PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT
LOWER THAN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOWER OVER THE EAST...WITH MODERATE
BREEZES FROM CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA ROSA. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN
THE 20S AND 30S. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE A BIT MOST AREAS...BUT
STILL BE FAIR TO POOR IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FAIR OR
BETTER IN THE EAST. THERE WILL EVEN BE SOME VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENT RATES IN THE NORTHEAST THANKS TO HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH
COOLER DAY ON TAP FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY SO IN
THE EAST. MIN RH VALUES WILL ONLY LOWER TO THE 30S AND 40S. TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE EAST DURING THE MORNING
DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. VENT RATES WILL DROP BACK TO
MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR VALUES TUESDAY...EXCEPT SOME GOOD RATES RIGHT
ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER.

A REINFORCING FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND WE
COULD SEE OUR FIRST LIGHT PRECIPITATION OF THE WEEK DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE
NIGHTTIME RH RECOVERIES WILL BE MOSTLY EXCELLENT.

A STRENGTHENING TROUGH TO OUR WEST MAY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE STATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH CHILLY...BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME MIN RH VALUES ONLY IN THE 40S TO
60S. AGAIN THE VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

MOST MODELS THEN DRY THINGS OUT FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501-503-504.

&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

 328 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...VISIBILITIES
MAY DROP BELOW ONE HALF MILE AND A THIN GLAZE OF ICE MAY FORM ON
ROADWAYS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
AREAS ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
OVERNIGHT. GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
IT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN...ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM...BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE VERY SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS NORTHWEST NM TODAY.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE FZFG WILL
REFORM. THOUGH THERE ARE ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE
HORIZON...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BEFORE SUNRISE. THE HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS/FOG. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FZFG TO THE GRIDS AROUND
FMN AND GUP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PULL THE TRIGGER
ON A FZFG ADVISORY ATTM.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP NE NM OVERNIGHT...AND
THOUGH THERE IS INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT FOR
PRECIPITATION...MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
NEAR 50KT ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN.
FAVORED LOCALES ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...INCLUDING CQC...WILL BE IN STORE FOR A BREEZY TO WINDY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.
ACCOMPANING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DID LOWER TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FOR SAT AFTN. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE
TEXAS BORDER BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT QUICKLY WASHES OUT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY/WINDY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR
ON SUNDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH SUN AND MON WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY WILL SEND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN
NM...THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AREAWIDE. TEMPS ON TUES
WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO REALLY STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES/CROSSES NM ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT...WHICH RESULTS
IN THE GFS HAVING VERY LITTLE PRECIP DESPITE THE BACK DOOR FRONT
REINFORCEMENT...AND THE EC SHOWING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
FURTHER...THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SYSTEM ON ITS
HEELS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM AND MODELS ARE HAVING AN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING THEM. NONETHELESS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION MID WEEK...BUT TOO SOON TO SAY HOW MUCH OR WHAT AREAS
WILL BE FAVORED. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AND RELATIVELY WARMER PATTERN HAS PREVAILED TODAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING.
POOR VENTILATION HAS BEEN IN PLACE TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THEME INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY`S LIGHT BREEZES OVER THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN ZONES ARE ALSO COUPLING WITH STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS
AND A STUBBORN LAYER OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE STATE. THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE HAMPERED THE
WARMING TREND IN NORTHWEST NM...BUT OTHERWISE THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
HAVE YIELDED NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. DOWNSLOPING BREEZES
HAVE REALLY HELPED THE NORTHEAST WARM UP EVEN MORE...SOME 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THESE EASTERN DOWNSLOPE AREAS ARE WHERE RH HAS DROPPED
THE LOWEST...EVEN BELOW 10 PERCENT...BUT THE SNOW MELT AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER NORTHWESTERN NM HAVE KEPT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND RH
INTACT. TONIGHT`S RECOVERY WILL BE EXCELLENT IN THE SAN JUAN
BASIN...AND POOR TO FAIR IN THE NORTHEAST WITH DOWNSLOPING BREEZES
STAYING ALIVE ALL NIGHT. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL
ENHANCE SOME OF THESE WINDS...TURNING THEM GUSTY IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVERNIGHT.

A FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF NM SATURDAY
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES. CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE LITTLE CHANGE
TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES. POOR VENTILATION
WILL PERSIST. INTO SUNDAY NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT RELAX SOME AND A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH REDEVELOPS. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND WHAT THEY LOST ON SATURDAY...AND
THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE.

BY MONDAY A STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OBSERVED OVER NM AS A
GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE TROUGH USHERS ANOTHER COOLER AIR MASS CLOSER
TO THE STATE. SOME BETTER VENTILATION RATES ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED
FOR MONDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE REDUCE WITH NEWER
MODEL RUNS. THIS APPROACH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE INTO NM MONDAY
NIGHT...YIELDING MUCH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS INTO TUESDAY.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A TROUGH THAT TAKES SHAPE OVER
AZ AND SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WOULD SPREAD SOME HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME WHILE DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE. THE FINER DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT ARE STILL BEING RESOLVED...BUT THIS COOLER AND
WETTER PERIOD WILL CERTAINLY PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE UPDATED
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO ERODE AWAY IN THE SAN
JUAN BASIN OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A BRIEF
STINT OF VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...AN ABRUPT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK
COULD HAPPEN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FORECAST MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE SATURATED SOILS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS
ARISING FROM MELTING SNOW NEAR THE AREA...THUS IT`S A TRICKY
FORECAST. HAVE HEDGED PESSIMISTICALLY THAT KFMN WILL ENDURE BRUNT
OF IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR KGUP TO ALSO
SEE STRATUS/FOG. OTHERWISE A FRONT WILL INFILTRATE THE EASTERN
HALF OF NEW MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY WHERE GUSTY WINDS TO 25 TO 30 KT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  23  45  19  48 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  14  46  12  46 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  15  47  17  46 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  21  51  19  55 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  18  50  18  51 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  15  54  14  54 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  19  52  20  54 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  27  62  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................   8  43   7  43 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  25  46  22  46 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  27  48  22  48 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  10  40   6  41 /   5   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  11  40   6  39 /   5   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................   8  45   1  43 /   5   0   0   0
TAOS............................  13  45  10  44 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  26  51  20  53 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  25  51  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  26  48  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  24  50  21  49 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  28  52  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  27  53  27  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  23  54  22  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  24  53  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  20  54  19  56 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  26  54  27  54 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  28  57  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  23  48  25  49 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  26  51  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  21  51  19  51 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  27  48  23  48 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  24  51  24  51 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  26  56  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  26  56  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  24  51  23  56 /   5   0   0   0
RATON...........................  22  52  17  56 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  25  54  21  58 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  28  54  22  57 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  33  57  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  30  56  24  61 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  31  60  30  65 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  34  60  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  31  59  30  65 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  32  57  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  31  59  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  31  59  30  63 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  26  62  26  65 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  31  62  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  30  59  29  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 1009 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND QUICKLY LIFT NORTH UP THE COAST SUNDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1008 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND DEVELOP INTO A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOW A HIGHLY CONCENTRATED BAND OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ENTERING THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH AND PROGRESSING
NORTHWARD OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AND THEN ADVANCING EASTWARD WITH TIME.
THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN WHICH LOCALES RECEIVE HEAVY
RAIN AND THOSE THAT RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAIN AT ALL WITH THE CUTOFF
LINE BEING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TRIAD AND THE TRIANGLE WITH
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WHILE THERE
IS A THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER...THE LATEST MUCAPE
VALUES OFF OF THE RAP THROUGH 19Z ARE VERY WEAK...LESS THAN 100
J/KG. THAT BEING SAID...JET DYNAMICS COULD SPARK ENOUGH LIFT TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER...MAINLY EAST OF I-95 AND MORE LIKELY ALONG
THE COAST. SPC ONLY INCLUDES THE VERY SOUTHERN TIP OF SAMPSON COUNTY
IN THE SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THE LOW WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN A NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE SUNDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS IT
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...AND UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON(BETWEEN 18Z SUN TO 00Z MONDAY)IN A RELATIVELY QUITE
MANNER AS PRECEDING COASTAL WAVE AND LEAD SFC TROUGH PASSAGE SUNDAY
MORNING WILL SERVE AS THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT...TAKING THE PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING...WELL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON BY AIRMASS
JUST LOOKS TO DRY AND STABLE TO SUPPORT MUCH MORE.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SUSTAINED AT 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH
AS THE MSLP GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUN AFTERNOON. WITH CONSIDERABLE
BREAKS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
LOWER 50S NW TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SE. WEAK CAA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM SATURDAY...

A MILD START IS ON TAP THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONS MORE ZONAL AFTER THIS WEEKENDS LOW LIFTS OUT. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME LOW 60S
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

NEXT SYSTEM TO GRAZE THE AREA WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE DIGS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
ZIPPING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY MUCH
LIMITED TO WHATEVER MOISTURE IT BRINGS WITH IS AS FLOW ACROSS THE
GULF STATES WILL BE WESTERLY...HENCE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP OF
CONSEQUENCE AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL
OFF DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR WILL BE DELAYED AS
IT WORKS ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST...AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD
STILL REACH MAINLY LOW 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S EAST.

COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN FOR THE LATE WEEK...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH SEPARATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOT PHASED AND AT
THIS POINT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOW THE DIGGING NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF SUPPRESSING THE POTENTIALLY MORE POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH...WITH RESULTANT DEVELOPMENT
OFF THE EAST COAST WELL OFFSHORE. AS SUCH...SOME LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AS THE SHORT
WAVE GRAZES THE AREA. IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALIGNS NEARER
THE COAST...SOME SHOWERS MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST OR
EASTERN CORRIDOR SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...20 PERCENTISH. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM AROUND FREEZING TO
35. MINS IN THIS RANGE WOULD...OF COURSE...PRODUCE A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FREEZING PRECIP AND BEARS WATCHING AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...GENERALLY BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z TONIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST. THE SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND BOTH THE EXITING
HIGH AND THE INCOMING LOW WILL RESULT IN CIGS RAPIDLY DECREASING
AND...ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS (KFAY/KRDU/KRWI)...SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES UP THE NC
COAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUNDAY. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CIGS TO PREVAIL
DURING THAT TIME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY FROM KRDU EAST. BEYOND
12Z...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR RATHER QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND DRY AIR IS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY 18Z (LAST
BEING KRWI)...WITH THE ONLY LINGERING THREAT BEING STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON(BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 00Z
MONDAY). BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING... BECOMING SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. -CBL

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...KC/CBL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1233 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

MAIN CONCERN WITH EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WAS THE RELUCTANCE OF THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP ON THE SITUATION...AND
CONTINUES A VERY SLOW EROSION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CLOUD/FOG
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE REFLECTED THIS
IN THE UPDATE AND HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO COOL TEMPS
DOWN QUITE A BIT UNDER THE CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 831 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

FOG/LOW CLOUDS REMAIN PARKED OVER CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE TRIES TO RETRACT THIS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH
THIS ERODES. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY AS THE
POSITION OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A GREAT INFLUENCE ON IT. FOR
MORNING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED FOG COVERAGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY ON
THE LEADING EDGE WHERE A BROAD AREA OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE
BEING REPORTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LATEST HRRR LOW CLOUD
FRACTION FORECAST. THIS MODEL ERODES THE CLOUDS SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IN WARM ADVECTION BY NOON. WILL MAINTAIN THE FOG AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE FORECAST AS HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS EARLIER ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AS THE CLOUDS WEE MOVING IN. BELIEVE ITS SOMEWHAT
PATCHY BUT APPEARS REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LOW
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
STRONG WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE INDICATES IFR STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM CROSBY TO TIOGA...TO HAZEN AND BISMARCK...TO NEAR WISHEK.
LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS BAND SLOWING ITS PROGRESSION
SOUTHWESTWARD...AND GRADUALLY RETREATING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.
THIS OCCURS AS WARM ADVECTION TAKES HOLD FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NO HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE THE LOW STRATUS...AND
THIS AREA REMAINS UNDER THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH THE
FOG. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.

WARM ADVECTION AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. HOWEVER...EXPECT STRATUS CLOUDS TO BE SLOW TO
RETREAT IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY - WITH HIGHS
TODAY ONLY REACHING INTO THE 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND FRONT TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND INDUCES A SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS RIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE BORDER AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. THUS MAIN PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.

THE OTHER HAZARD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG
WINDS. THE STRONGEST BURST OF WINDS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WEST...AND DURING THE DAY CENTRAL. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW REGARDING THE STRENGTH/SPEED OF THE WINDS AS WELL AS THE
DURATION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. THE INITIAL PUSH OF NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST AND SATURDAY IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...LINING UP WELL WITH THE TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THEN WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWS IN THE WEST BY NOON SATURDAY AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT MOMENTUM NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WHILE WARM ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. THINK WE MAY
SEE WIND ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS AT SOME POINT IN MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT NOT FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO ISSUE THAT HEADLINE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THIS
SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER ISSUANCE THIS MORNING...AS
WELL AS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN BEGINS THE EXTENDED THROUGH
MONDAY. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE MID
LEVEL PACIFIC FLOW BRINGING MILD AND DRY AIR INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AFTER THIS A BUILDING RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST RESULTS IN
A DOWNSTREAM H500 TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL BEGIN
A COOLING TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE RULE AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER THE FLOW CONTINUES OFF THE PACIFIC
WITH NO REAL POOL OF ARCTIC AIR FORMING IN CANADA THAT CAN BE
TAPPED FOR COLD AIR OUTBREAKS. PERHAPS LATER THIS MONTH THIS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE 8 TO 14 DAY NOW IS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL. FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD THERE IS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER STORMS
ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT KMOT...KBIS...AND KJMS  THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. CEILINGS AT
KMOT WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR AFT 23Z. KBIS TRANSITIONS TO
VFR/MVFR AFT 21Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AFT 09Z/17. KJMS
BRIEFLY MOVES INTO VFR CEILINGS AFT 06Z/17 BEFORE RETURNING TO
IFR CONDITIONS AROUND 10Z/17. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KISN
AND KDIK. TONIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AND INCREASING TO 20-30 KNOTS
AT KISN/KDIK AFT 03Z WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW EXPECTED AT
KMOT...KDIK...AND KJMS AFT 02Z/17.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...ZH






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 847 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

FOG/LOW CLOUDS REMAIN PARKED OVER CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE TRIES TO RETRACT THIS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH
THIS ERODES. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY AS THE
POSITION OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A GREAT INFLUENCE ON IT. FOR
MORNING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED FOG COVERAGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY ON
THE LEADING EDGE WHERE A BROAD AREA OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE
BEING REPORTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LATEST HRRR LOW CLOUD
FRACTION FORECAST. THIS MODEL ERODES THE CLOUDS SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IN WARM ADVECTION BY NOON. WILL MAINTAIN THE FOG AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE FORECAST AS HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS EARLIER ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AS THE CLOUDS WEE MOVING IN. BELIEVE ITS SOMEWHAT
PATCHY BUT APPEARS REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LOW
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
STRONG WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE INDICATES IFR STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM CROSBY TO TIOGA...TO HAZEN AND BISMARCK...TO NEAR WISHEK.
LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS BAND SLOWING ITS PROGRESSION
SOUTHWESTWARD...AND GRADUALLY RETREATING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.
THIS OCCURS AS WARM ADVECTION TAKES HOLD FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NO HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE THE LOW STRATUS...AND
THIS AREA REMAINS UNDER THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH THE
FOG. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.

WARM ADVECTION AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. HOWEVER...EXPECT STRATUS CLOUDS TO BE SLOW TO
RETREAT IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY - WITH HIGHS
TODAY ONLY REACHING INTO THE 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND FRONT TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND INDUCES A SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS RIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE BORDER AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. THUS MAIN PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.

THE OTHER HAZARD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG
WINDS. THE STRONGEST BURST OF WINDS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WEST...AND DURING THE DAY CENTRAL. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW REGARDING THE STRENGTH/SPEED OF THE WINDS AS WELL AS THE
DURATION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. THE INITIAL PUSH OF NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST AND SATURDAY IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...LINING UP WELL WITH THE TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THEN WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWS IN THE WEST BY NOON SATURDAY AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT MOMENTUM NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WHILE WARM ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. THINK WE MAY
SEE WIND ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS AT SOME POINT IN MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT NOT FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO ISSUE THAT HEADLINE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THIS
SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER ISSUANCE THIS MORNING...AS
WELL AS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN BEGINS THE EXTENDED THROUGH
MONDAY. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE MID
LEVEL PACIFIC FLOW BRINGING MILD AND DRY AIR INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AFTER THIS A BUILDING RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST RESULTS IN
A DOWNSTREAM H500 TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL BEGIN
A COOLING TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE RULE AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER THE FLOW CONTINUES OFF THE PACIFIC
WITH NO REAL POOL OF ARCTIC AIR FORMING IN CANADA THAT CAN BE
TAPPED FOR COLD AIR OUTBREAKS. PERHAPS LATER THIS MONTH THIS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE 8 TO 14 DAY NOW IS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL. FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD THERE IS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER STORMS
ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN FOG AND STRATUS WITH INTERMITTENT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. KMOT AND KBIS BECOMING VFR AFT 18Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KISN AND KDIK. TONIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST
AND INCREASING TO 20-30 KNOTS AT KISN/KDIK AFT 03Z WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 1122 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT/VORT MAX ALOFT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 AM UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ON ACCOUNT OF THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAISED TONIGHT BASED ON SW WINDS.  ALSO ADJUSTED POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING TO CUT OFF WESTERN EXTENT...SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS IN AND NEAR
THE NRN MOUNTAINS OF WV.

530 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
USING THE HRRR FOR THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT
SEEMS TO BE FOLLOWING THE REAL TIME DEVELOPMENT.

WEAK VORTICITY MAX ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
ADVECT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ZONES OF THE CWA AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS WAVE. SREF IS
AGGRESSIVE IN PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE...AND HAVE DECENT UPLIFT
IN THE LOW LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL...SO CANNOT IGNORE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW LATER THIS MORNING AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH AND MARGINAL CRYSTAL GROWTH KEEPS
THE POPS BELOW 50 PERCENT HOWEVER.

MAV PERFORMED POORLY LAST NIGHT...SO EXCLUDED THIS FROM A BLEND FOR
THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. SHOULD BE AT FREEZING OR JUST
ABOVE FOR THE LOWLANDS. KEEPING THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS...INCLUDING EKN...AT FREEZING OR BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BRINGS A DRY...BREEZY AND
MILDER DAY SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO GO ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE IN THE LOWLANDS.
MODELS HAVE AN ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOMETIME SUNDAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WILL BE MORE INFLUENCED BY A COOLING UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA RATHER THAN FOLLOWING A WELL
DEFINED COLD FRONT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY
MILD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX...BENEFITING FROM THE COOLING ALOFT...BUT LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THRU MOST OF SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS...RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWLANDS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING...BUT WITH LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION. THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WITH MAXIMUM COOLING...WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM IS LIMITED SO THAT QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE OF INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING
ALL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH AND THERMAL AXIS LIFTS OUT WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...LEADING TO A MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
COLD MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO START
THE LONG TERM...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AS
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND FLOW BACKS.  LOOKING FOR A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
MOVES IN MID WEEK...SPREADING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOG CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX SITUATION WITH THE
MVFR STRATUS DECK IN PLACE...WITH IT SHRINKING IN SIZE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND EXPANDING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND DOWN
TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA/HTS.

A WEAK VORTICITY MAX PUSHING SOUTHEAST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL REACH PKB FIRST...BY 12Z.

IN THE END...EXPECT THE STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN LATER THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL WITH HTS AND CRW LAST TO GET BACK
INTO MVFR CEILINGS.

LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT EKN AFTER 13Z. DO NOT EXPECT ANY IFR AT
EKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE MVFR STRATUS
TODAY IS IN QUESTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 01/16/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS...NOT LIMITED TO BUT MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

 756 PM PST SAT JAN 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES OFFSHORE...AND
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. RAINFALL
RATES ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AT THE COAST AND WILL PEAK AROUND
10PM OR SO...THEN THE RAIN WILL PUSH EAST AND AFFECT INLAND
VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WE`VE BEEN WATCHING
WINDS CLOSELY AT THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH HRRR MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTING SOME TYPE OF SQUALL LINE THAT COULD BRING VERY GUSTY
WINDS TO THE COAST...AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COASTAL AREAS AND JUST
INLAND IN WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. EXTRAPOLATING CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS WITH EXPECTED INCREASES IN WIND SPEEDS PER THE HOURLY
MODEL OUTPUT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT...HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING AT NPWMFR FOR THE COAST FROM GOLD BEACH NORTH TO COOS BAY.
WINDS AT THE COAST SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AROUND MIDNIGHT.

FARTHER EAST...A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR
WEED...AND A HIGH WIND WARNING AT NPWMFR CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF LAKE
AND MODOC COUNTIES INCLUDING SUMMER LAKE ALONG HIGHWAY 31. SNOW
LEVELS REMAIN HIGH...CURRENTLY AROUND 8500 FEET PER THE AFTERNOON
BALLOON SOUNDING AT MEDFORD...AND WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING SO CRATER LAKE MAY SEE SOME SNOWFALL SUNDAY BUT
LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT. I HAVE
UPDATED POPS A BIT FOR TOMORROW TO GENERALLY EASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

DRY WEATHER AND RIDGING ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THIS
WILL LIKELY MEAN BOUTS OF VALLEY MORNING FOG AND FREEZING FOG...WITH
SOME SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS AT THE COAST AND THE MOUNTAINS.
PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON
TONIGHT`S FRONT AND THE UPCOMING DRY CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18/06Z TAF CYCLE...THE MAIN CONCERN INTO LATE
TONIGHT REMAINS LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR ALONG THE COAST AND ABOVE
THE UMPQUA VALLEY NORTHWARD AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND.
LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THOSE AREAS WILL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 30 TO 50 KT BUT THE SHEAR WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE
WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING. ALSO MODELS ARE INDICATING A CHANCE
FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS EVENING, BETWEEN AROUND 03Z AND 05Z,
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND. THIS MAY BRING STRONG GUSTY AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

BESIDES THE WINDS, THERE IS A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AND AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD
FRONT IS JUST OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BECOMING MVFR
WITH AREAS OF IFR WITH WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS BETWEEN 03Z
AND 10Z  AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR
WITH AREAS OF IFR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
DROP THE FREEZING LEVEL FROM AROUND 9500 FT MSL THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 5500 FT MSL AS RAIN AND SNOW TURNS TO SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING.  THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH AREAS OF VFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
/CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 415 PM, SATURDAY JANUARY 17, 2015...SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK
LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT SEAS WILL REACH A PEAK LATE THIS
EVENING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT AS HIGH AND VERY STEEP WIND WAVES COMBINE
WITH A MODERATE WEST SWELL. ALSO AS THIS FRONT PUSHES INTO THE COAST
THIS EVENING, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS,
MAINLY FROM PORT ORFORD NORTHWARD.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO
SOUTHWEST AND RAPIDLY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE LARGEST
DECREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP TO VERY STEEP SUNDAY MORNING AS SHORT PERIOD
WIND WAVES AND BUILDING WEST SWELL OF 11 TO 13 FT AT 12 SECONDS
MOVES INTO THE WATERS. WIND SEAS WILL LOWER LATER SUNDAY BUT STEEP
SWELL DOMINATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 10 FEET ON TUESDAY
MORNING BUT AREAS OF STEEP SEAS ARE LIKELY IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO NORTHERLY
WIND WAVES. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK A COUPLE FRONTS WILL MOVE BRUSH
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE WATERS AND A LARGE LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL MAY BUILD INTO THE WATERS. /CC

&&




.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM PST SAT JAN 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED
NORTH INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PAUSE IN
RAINFALL. HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A GOOD
MOISTURE TAP ALONG WITH A 90-100KT JETSTREAM THAT IS FORECAST TO
COME ASHORE THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE BRING THE NEXT ROUND
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTH
AROUND 8 OR 9 PM. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
INCREASE ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THE WIND ADVISORIES AND WARNING THAT WERE ISSUED EARLIER
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE MAJOR
PASSES THROUGHOUT THIS SYSTEM.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SW OREGON LATE TONIGHT
THEN THROUGH THE KLAMATH BASIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SNOW LEVELS COMING DOWN TO 4-5000 FEET. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL START TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA MONDAY FOR WARMING AND DRYING AT
THE UPPER RIDGES. UNFORTUNATELY THIS ALSO MEANS STRONG INVERSIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTER DEVELOPING AT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. /FB

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LONG TERM WILL BE
LARGELY OR ENTIRELY DRY. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INLAND ON WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A STABLE
AIR MASS WITH NIGHT AND MORNING WEST SIDE VALLEY FOG, OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THEREAFTER, THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE
SMALLER THAN NORMAL BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES. A COMPARISON OF THE
PREVIOUS FEW RUNS SHOWS THAT THE GFS IS MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE
ECMWF. THUS, THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ARE FORECAST TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN IT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA...COOS COUNTY ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY INTO
FAR NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. DURING THIS SAME PERIOD, THE ECMWF HAD SHOWN STRONGER
RIDGING THAN THE GFS BUT IS NOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE ON THURSDAY AND THEN FASTER/STRONGER WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND BUILD
INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING WEST SIDE VALLEY FOG. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ356.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/DW/CC



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 530 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH SUNDAY IS ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...A MID LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS DIGGING TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA WITH A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW EXTENDS SOUTH TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTH OF IT THROUGH NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS
OCCURRING IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH WHERE LIFT/MOISTURE IS DEEPER. THE QUESTION
IS WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP HAVE SHOWN THAT THE MOISTURE/LIFT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH SOUTH OF CLARK AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AM NOT EXPECTING
DRIZZLE TO BE AN ISSUE BECAUSE WHERE THERE IS LIFT...THE MOISTURE
GETS DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THAT
FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH ANY GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK ALREADY INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER IN WESTERN TO
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE CORE OF THE TROUGH/LOW WILL BE
CLOSER.

WHILE WE LIKELY WILL NOT HIT 40 AGAIN TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP MUCH BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH THE MAIN POOL OF COLDER
850MB TRACKING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

THE NEXT FEATURE TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT IS
ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT DROPS DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE FIRST ROUND FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW APPEARS TO COME IN ON MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THOUGH TRENDS FROM ALL OF THE GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE
17.12Z GFS SEEM TO BE TAKING THIS BELT OF LIFT FROM WARM AIR
ADVECTION FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THE 17.12Z ECMWF HAS A UNIQUE
SOLUTION WITH BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA WITH AN
850MB TROUGH. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW APPEAR TO COME
IN ON TUESDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THERMAL PROFILES
LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING ALL SNOW
BUT FORCING LOOKS WEAK SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. BEYOND THAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THOUGH THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY ON THE MILD SIDE. A
COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE POTENTIALLY OUT THERE AS WELL THOUGH
TIMING/TRACK IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

SATELLITE TRENDS AND FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CLOUD DECK IN
THE WAKE OF TODAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MOVE EAST OF TAF
AIRFIELDS A BIT EARLIER. WILL MOVE UP VFR CONDITIONS AT KRST TO
18.06Z AND 18.09Z AT KLSE. THESE TIMES MAY NEED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
AS RECENT MODEL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN RATHER POOR.
A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID-20 KT RANGE
AND SHOULD THEN SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT
THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SUB 3000 FT AGL CEILINGS ON SUNDAY...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW GIVEN BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
WAVE ALOFT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 327 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MT/IDAHO WILL
BRING SOME SENSIBLE WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG TROUGH ENERGY IN TWO
PARTS...OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL MT-CANADA BORDER AND SECOND PIECE
OVER SRN IDAHO. TWO FRONTS IN THE REGION CAUSING A BIT MORE
CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD/FOG FORECAST TONIGHT. OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY KMKT-KMSN ROUGHLY WITH
COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND CLEARLY MARKED BY
OVERCAST SKIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF IT. SECONDARY FRONT IS ACROSS
SRN IA WITH WARM SECTOR SOUTHWEST WINDS IN A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S /NO SNOW COVER THERE/.

AS THE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE. MOST OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL GO INTO WARMING AND NOT LIFT...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING 5F. THE WEAK LIFT OF 1-3UB/S WILL BE LOCATED
A BIT INTO THE LOWER BASED SATURATED LAYER FOR DZ/FZDZ POTENTIAL
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN FRONT...NEAR AND NORTH OF I-94.
NCEP MODELS SUGGEST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT DEEP SATURATION...THIS WOULD BE A
LIQUID LAYER AND FZDZ. HOWEVER...THE MODEL MOISTURE DEPTH IS
LESSENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT /PER NCEP MODEL SOUNDINGS/ AND
NEAR OR LESS THAN 1KM. THIS SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION GENERATION FROM
THIS LAYER LESS PROBABLE. THUS...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FZDZ IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH MINOR PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED FROM THE MODELS...DIDNT FEEL CONFIDENT IT COULD BE
GENERATED.

ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE 4-5F RIGHT NOW AND AN INVERTED TEMPERATURE PROFILE...SOME
SNOW MELT TODAY...SO AM CONCERNED WITH MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. WITH
CLEAR SKIES...THINKING THERE COULD BE SOME EVENING FOG FORMATION
IN THE COOLING AFTER SUNDOWN. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT OF
HIGHER AND VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES WOULD TEND TO ADVECT THAT FOG NORTH OR DIMINISH IT. THE
INVERSION IS ALSO STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION
/VERSUS LIFT/. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASING TREND
WITH FOG /HRRR AND RAP RUNS/ AND LATEST 16.15Z SREF IS SLIGHTLY
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH A LARGE 1 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY AREA OVER
SWRN WI-SERN MN. BUT MODELS ARE ALSO BIASED TOWARD SNOW PACK
FOG...ESPECIALLY THE SREF...AS THE FOG FOOTPRINT MATCHES THE SNOW
DEPTH CLOSELY. A CHALLENGE TO KNOW HOW THAT AREA WILL BEHAVE FOR
FOG BUT HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
DENSE FOG.

QG FORCING SUGGESTS THE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT WILL SPLIT THE
FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. KEPT SMALL CHANCES OF
DZ/FZDZ/SN- NORTH OF I-90 SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MISS RIVER. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD CARRY
INTO THE EVENING BASED ON A MIXED-BOUNDARY LAYER AND 0-1KM LAPSE
RATES OVER 8C/KM AND 30-35 KTS AT 1 KM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

OVERALL A NO/LOW IMPACT WEATHER PERIOD IT SEEMS. ANOTHER SYSTEM
FOR MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ANOTHER WARM UP AND COOL DOWN AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EVENT. OVERALL A TREND IS TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES...BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

WITH WARM...PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
KLSE WAS UNDER MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A STRATUS DECK WHILE KRST WAS
IN LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITIES UNDER A HALF MILE. LOOK FOR
THE STRATUS DECK TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER KLSE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LOWERING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES
NORTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL
OCCUR IN THE VALLEY AT KLSE WHILE KRST LOOKS TO HAVE CEILINGS
UNDER A 1000FT AND VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE RETURN THIS
EVENING.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...CC/HALBACH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 1256 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPEN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND PASSES
WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT TO THE EAST COAST BY LATE SUNDAY...SPAWNING LOW PRES
OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LLJ AND WAA STRENGTHENS.
COMBINATION OF LIGHT SURFACE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE ALONG THE
COAST AND REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS INTERIOR.

CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY LOOKS REASONABLE FOR LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM COASTLINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE THROUGH THE 20S
WITH LIGHT FLOW. OPER MODELS AND HRRR SHOW POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RA TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STEADIER AND HEAVIER PRECIP THROUGH THE MID
TO LATE MORNING WITH STRONGER LIFT.

AS THE FLOW STRENGTHENS AFTER SUNRISE...TEMPS ALONG THE SRN TIER
RISE ABV FREEZING. ACROSS THE NWRN INTERIOR THE COLD AIR WILL TAKE
LONGER TO ERODE. END TIME FOR THE ADVY IS 13Z COASTS AND 16Z
INTERIOR AS A RESULT. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE ICE FCST IS THE
EXTENT OF THE PCPN. IF THE PCPN TAKES LONGER TO
MATERIALIZE...LITTLE TO NO ICE ALONG THE COASTS/CITY AND REDUCED
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

BUT...EVEN IF AIR TEMPS DO RISE ABOVE FREEZING...NYS THRUWAY ROAD TEMP
SENSORS INDICATING...ROAD TEMPS AROUND 30 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER AND MID 20S ACROSS NORTHERN
WESTCHESTER/ORANGE/ROCKLAND COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD BE A REASONABLE
PROXY FOR NE NJ AND SW CT ROADS AS WELL. SO UNTREATED GROUND
SURFACE ICING MAY BE AN ISSUE UNTIL TEMPS CAN GET INTO THE MID
30S...WHICH MATCHES FAIRLY WELL WITH END TIMES OF ADVISORY.

THE CWA GETS INTO THE RRQUAD OF THE 130KT H3 JET LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HVY RAIN TO BLOSSOM OVER THE
AREA. ALL RAIN WITH THE INTENSIFYING SLY FLOW WARMING THE LLVLS.

HAVE BUMPED UP RAIN AMOUNTS A BIT WITH HIGH RES MODELS INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR 1+ INCH OF RAIN IN 3 HRS...WITH 40+ DBZ ECHOES IN
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY. MMEFS IN FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS OF AROUND 1
INCHES EAST AND FAR NW TRI-STATE TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR
NYC/NJ METRO IN ABOUT 12 HRS. NAM/SREF INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD TSTM IN THE LATE AFTN/EVE...MAINLY SE CT/E LI.

COLD DRY AIR WRAPS IN FROM THE W SUN EVE AND NGT...ENDING PCPN
QUICKLY. W WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH BY MON MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIALLY...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THEN DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF QUICK MOVING...WEAK
SYSTEMS IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN LOW AS A
RESULT.

GENERALLY DRY THOUGH...EXCEPT POSSIBLY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MONDAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS...AS DOES
UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY
WEAK RIDGE...SFC HIGH BRIEFLY. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY. THEN CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH
12Z ECMWF FORECASTING UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT PASSING NEARBY OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT IF IT DOES INDEED
MATERIALIZE DUE TO ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT. POPS UPPED FROM
PREVIOUS...AND WITH COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...CAPPED
POPS AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. ANY SHIFT IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE...WITH EITHER CATEGORICAL POPS IN A LOW QPF
EVENT...TO A DRY FORECAST.

THEREAFTER...UPSTREAM TROUGH...WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS
NOTED...APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS OUR AREA THOUGH.

TEMPS ARE A MET/MAV BLEND MONDAY...AND GRIDDED MOS TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...BLENDED ECE MOS WITH WPC AND GRIDDED MOS. IN
GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS COOL LATE IN THE WEAK AS HEIGHTS LOWER
BEHIND MID WEEK CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
THEN MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
REGION THIS EVE.

LIGHT DRIZZLE OR -SHRA EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. RAIN FOR COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT FOR KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KSWF THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ONSET AFTER 10-14Z AS -FZDZ/-FZRZ. EVEN IF SURFACE
TEMPS RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THESE TERMINALS...GROUND TEMPS
COULD BE AROUND FREEZING FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS RESULTING
IN THE CONTINUATION OF ICING ON UNTREATED SURFACES. PRECIP SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS BY 13-14Z WITH GROUND TEMPS
WARMING ABOVE FREEZING...BUT HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 15-16Z AT
KSWF.

FLIGHT CAT SHOULD QUICKLY GO TO LOW-END MVFR WITH ONSET OF PRECIP
AROUND DAYBREAK...AND THEN TO IFR A COUPLE OF HRS
LATER CONTINUING THROUGH AFTERNOON IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
POTENTIAL FOR LIFR OR LOWER CONDS AT KTEB/KHPN/KSWF LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RAIN. THERE IS A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR SPARSE TSRA AT KISP/KGON LATE THIS AFT/EARLY EVE.

GENERALLY S FLOW 10 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SE
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20S FOR KJFK AND EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING/AFTN.
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 30+KT IN HEAVIER RAIN. LLWS POTENTIAL
BETWEEN 18Z TO 00Z FOR COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH 45-50 KT LLJ AT 2
KFT.

WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 23Z TO 04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.LATE TONIGHT...GUSTY WNW WINDS. CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR THEN VFR. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT KSWF.
.MON...VFR. WEST WINDS 10-20 KT WITH G20-30 KT.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD AIR ALOFT ALLOWS
MIXING OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. AS THE AIR WARMS
ALOFT...WINDS MAY ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

WAVES REACH 5 FT ON SUNDAY. A SCA ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN THRU SUN
NGT. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25-30KT WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS NEAR
44017. ELSEWHERE...WINDS GENERALLY BLW 25 KT...BUT EASTERN LI
SOUND AND BAY MAY BRIEFLY SEE MARGINAL SCA LATE SUN/SUN EVE.

AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
MONDAY...GUSTY NW/W FLOW PREVAILS ON THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW.

THIS LOW MOVES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...THEN
DEEPENS WELL TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND IT.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HAZARDS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK
INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO
CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNT NW AND EAST. POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 1 INCH
OF RAIN IN 3 HRS IN AFT/EARLY EVE.

THESE RAINFALL RATES/AMOUNTS WOULD CAUSE MINOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING THE AFT/EVE. ADDITIONALLY...IF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED ACROSS NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/SW CT...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING OF
FLASHY SMALL STREAMS DUE TO SLOWLY THAWING GROUND AND RUNOFF.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005-
     006.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009-
     010.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ071>074.
NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-
     104>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV/PW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 222 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...
259 PM CST

THROUGH MONDAY...

AFTER MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND THEN POSSIBLE FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW.  THE
PARENT LOW STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE LAKES...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
SHOWS UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND ALL THE
WAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS A FAIRLY GENTLE POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING SOME MOSTLY ELEVATED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...BUT SFC
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND BELOW CLOUD
BASES OF 5000 FT OR MORE.  WITH THE BEST MOISTURE ALOFT AND THE BEST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAILING THE SFC FRONT...MID TO LOWER LEVELS SLOWLY
SATURATE BUT THEN HIGHER LEVELS START TO DRY OUT.  MODELS ALSO ARE
SHOWING DECENT FGEN AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE AIR IN
THAT REGION IS NOT FAVORABLY COLD OR SATURATED ENOUGH FOR
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW GROWTH.  FINALLY...LAKE EFFECTS IN NW INDIANA ALSO
ARE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY MILD AIR AND MORE WESTERLY THAN NORTH OR
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.  IN SUMMARY...EXPECT THE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
TO PERSIST THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES LATE WITH DIURNAL COOLING.

COLDER AIR MIGHT BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE UPSTREAM AIR MASS IS NEARLY
AS WARM AS WHAT WE ARE SEEING WITH TODAYS TEMPERATURES.  FOR THAT
REASON...WILL ONLY DROP FCST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
30S...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PLACES IN THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF OUR AREA REACH 40 AGAIN WITH CLEARER SKIES
AND LESS SNOW COVER.

MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...LIKE TODAY PERHAPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LENNING

&&

.LONG TERM...
259 PM CST

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

DETERMINISTIC MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT GENERALLY AGREE ON
BRINGING IT VERY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO
HAVE A DEEPER AND MORE ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE ALOFT...AND SOME MODELS
ARE HINTING AT MESOSCALE SUPPORT ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO
NARROW DOWN THE EXTENT AND AMOUNTS OF ANY SNOW THAT MIGHT DEVELOP.
WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR...SOME AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW TENTHS EVEN WITHOUT ASSISTANCE FROM MESOSCALE FORCING. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW ALSO RAISES THE IDEA OF PTYPE CONCERNS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AFTER ONE LAST SEASONABLY MILD DAY TUESDAY...OR AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY...MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING OUT WEST AND A DEEPENING TOUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SUPPORT THE ARRIVAL OF A COLDER AIR MASS LATE
TUESDAY WITH THE WEEKS COLDEST AIR SETTLING IN WEDNESDAY AND HANGING
AROUND AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY.  SECONDARY COLD FRONTS AND WEAK UPPER
WAVES WILL SUPPORT ONGOING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...MILDER AIR MAY ARRIVE AGAIN FRIDAY OR LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A BROADER AND DEEPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND.

LENNING

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* MVFR CIGS OF 2000-3000 FT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MOVES
EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
WEST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. THE PATTERN IS ALSO
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY BROKEN MVFR STRATOCU ALTHOUGH SOME TEMPORARY
SCATTERING APPEARS LIKELY AROUND DAYBREAK BASED ON UPSTREAM
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CIGS WILL BE 2000 FT OR
HIGHER. BY AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING APPROACHES.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH IN VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
TUESDAY...MVFR LIKELY/CHANCE OF IFR. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. PRIMARILY DRY.

MTF/IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
220 AM CST

STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN LAKES WILL BE DEPARTING
THE REGION TODAY BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BUT STILL PRONOUNCED AND GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE AREAS THE
SPEEDS IS FORECAST TO EASE UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
LATER THIS MORNING. ICE COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY LIMITED WITH THE
RECENT MILD FLOW...BUT WITH THE MAINLY OFFSHORE OR PARALLEL WINDS
THE WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE IN THESE
NEARSHORE AREAS. A PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE SEEN
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DROPPING FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE UPPER MIDWEST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE FIRST LOW BEING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A WAYS OUT THERE YET...BUT IN THE DAYS 6-9 PERIOD /JANUARY 24-27/
THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO POTENTIALLY STRONGER
STORMS IN THE REGION AS THE JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO BUCKLE.

MTF

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
     UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1144 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

Some sprinkles have been reaching the ground with the radar
echoes over east-central and southeast Illinois this evening, but
they should be exiting the area shortly along with the surface
cold front. A second, smaller, area of sprinkles and/or flurries
is approaching the area from eastern Iowa, associated with main
500 MB trof/vort max. This feature will track across the forecast
area over the next few hours, exiting the area to the east before
daybreak. Skies should also begin to rapidly clear behind the
second area of light precipitation.

Going forecast was in good shape overall. Updated forecast for the
latest trends, mainly to freshen the overnight precipitation and
cloud trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

20z/2 PM surface map shows deepening 991 mb low pressure nw of Lake
Superior with its cold front extending southward across western WI
to near the IA/IL border into central MO. This front will sweep
eastward across central and eastern IL during this evening, shifting
breezy ssw winds 15-25 mph and gusts 25-35 mph to the WNW with its
passage and diminishing to 10-20 mph tonight. A fairly strong upper
level trof over western MN to the NE/IA border to push eastward into
IL by 06Z/midnight tonight and to the IN/OH border by sunrise
Sunday. Already increased clouds this afternoon and tonight as cloud
levels lower tonight. But still think light measurable mixed
precipitation will be mainly east and ne of IL over Indiana and the
Great Lakes region since moisture limited over central IL. So
continued with chance of flurries and sprinkles over central IL this
evening and ending chances from west to east during overnight as
short wave trof axis passes to the east. Lows mostly in the lower
30s tonight with upper 20s near Galesburg and mid 30s near the
Wabash river by Lawrenceville.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

The upper air pattern across the lower 48 will continue to keep
the very cold air locked up over northern Canada with a more active
southern stream shunting the more significant precipitation well
to our south during this period. Several disturbances embedded in
the west to northwest flow pattern will track mainly to our north
during this period keeping us mild into early next week with little
in the way of significant rain or snow expected with these fast
moving shortwaves.

The upper trof and attendant frontal boundary that pushed across our
area today will be well off to our east by Sunday morning. Forecast
soundings showing quite a bit of low level moisture in place into
early Sunday morning with drier air filtering in from the west and
northwest during the day. Satellite data and upstream surface
observations showing a small band of lower clouds tracking southeast
behind the cool front but the HRRR model has been consistently showing
the back-edge of those clouds pushing into west central Illinois just
after midnight tonight, so with our low level flowing becoming less
cyclonic during the day Sunday, will decrease the cloud cover from
west to east in the morning. Not a lot of cold air available behind
the system late tonight into Sunday so temps will be above normal
again Sunday afternoon, although not quite as mild as this afternoon.

The next shortwave forecast to dig into the lower Great Lakes on
Tuesday with low chance PoPs confined to the north starting later
Monday night and holding into Tuesday evening across the east. Once
again, not a major rain or snow system with very little moisture
available to the upper wave. After that, a series of fast moving
shortwaves will track east southeast into the lower Great Lakes with
the surface lows moving mainly to our north. By Thursday, we see some
disagreement with the models in the speed and strength of the approaching
shortwave with the GFS much more aggressive with the upper wave and
further south track on the surface low than the current ECMWF. For now,
will side more with the weaker ECMWF which would lead to a further track
to the north later in the week, which would once again keep any low
chance PoPs confined to the north.

Towards the end of this forecast period models are starting to show
some ridging building northward around 140 degrees Longitude with
500 mb heights starting to lower over the central U.S. which would
lead to some colder temps for the last week of January. Will see
if the medium and long range models hold on to this idea in the next
several days. In the mean time, we should see a return to more seasonably
cold weather starting on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

Predominantly VFR conditions expected across the central Illinois
terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. However, a patch of MVFR
CIGS is currently crossing west-central Illinois, and this may
impact a few of the local terminals over the next few hours. A few
sprinkles and/or flurries may also accompany these lower clouds.
After the patch of lower clouds moves through, skies should
rapidly clear, with minimal cloud cover expected for the rest of
the period. Westerly winds will persist through the daytime hours
Sunday, with a gradual decrease in wind speed anticipated. Winds
will become light by Sunday night.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 429 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...WHICH MAY
MIX WITH AND CHANCE TO LIGHT SNOW BY LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY.
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY WARM
INTO THE MID 30S. IT WILL BE DRY TONIGHT... EXCEPT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES OF LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

DISJOINTED SYSTEM MOVG THROUGH SRN GRTLKS THIS AM WITH WEAK
PREFRONTAL ZONE PUSHING THROUGH OHIO ATTM WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND PARALLEL ISENTROPIC FLOW LENDING TO MEAGER LIFT
WITHIN THIN BREADTH OF RICHEST BULK MOISTURE. CWA NOW WITHIN DRY
SLOTTING/STRONG 1000-850MB MOISTURE FLUX DIVERGENCE WITH I280K
DOWNSLOPE DESPITE STRONG 160-180M/12 HR HFC MOVG THROUGH CNTL/SRN
IN AND LARGELY IN VOID OF RAFL SAVE FOR FAR NWRN/FAR SERN EDGES.
GIVEN SIG DOWNTURN IN BULK MOISTURE WITH ONLY LITTLE ENHANCEMENT
IN UPSTREAM COMMAHEAD PER WV IMAGERY AND FINE LINE LIGHT PRECIP
BAND WITH MARKED DPCVA HAVE CONTD WITH LOWER END CHC/SLIGHT CHC
POPS HIGHLIGHTING LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIP. SLIGHT INCREASE IN
HEIGHT/SLOWER COLLAPSE OF RUC WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WITH WARM SFC
BASED BLYR STILL LEADING TO LIQUID PTYPE ACRS NERN IL. SLIGHT LK
ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONING ACRS FAR NWRN CWA FOR HIEST POPS BYND
PREFIRST PD. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT 295MB CAA TO
KEEP DIURNAL RISES WELL IN CHECK...ONLY ABOUT 3 DEGREE RISE OVR
12-15 UTC LOWS. SMALL AMPLITUDE RIDGING THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT AS
TROF AXIS CONTS TO ROTATE THROUGH LWR GRTLKS INTO NEW ENGLAND.
POSSIBLE WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTION OFF LEE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH
WEAK SFC REFLECTION INTO SERN MO BY DAYBREAK MONDAY PER WELL
CLUSTERED MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER THIS PRESENTS NO SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT GIVEN FEATURES DISTAL NATURE/DEEP LAYER
DESCENT OWING TO RISING 80-100M/12 HR 5H RISES AND DEARTH OF
MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH LOW/PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN
HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD AS SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES IN
AMPLIFYING MEAN WNW FLOW DIG SE THROUGH THE LAKES/OH VALLEY.
CONSENSUS TREND IN 00Z GUIDANCE WAS TOWARD A DRIER SYSTEM LOCALLY
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INITIAL LEAD PV PUSH/850-700 MB FGEN
SIGNAL NORTH INTO CENTRAL MI TUESDAY...AND DEEPER LIFT/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TIED TO A MORE PRONOUNCED/DIGGING SHORTWAVE FOCUSING
SE OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT LOWERED POPS FOR
LGT RN/SN MIX IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS FOLLOW IN QUICK
SUCCESSION MAKING IT HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT CHANCES FOR -SN
IN ANY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES FROM EARLIER TAF AMDS AROUND 04 UTC THAT IMPROVED
CONDS/FORECAST. LAGGED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LOWER CONDENSATION
LEVELS REMAIN UPSTREAM AND WILL LIKELY BE A FEW MORE HOURS TO
REALIZE FUELING/ALTERNATE CRITERIA. ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH A
MARKED DISJOINT BTWN DYNAMICS/MOISTURE PROFILES. AS WITH PRIOR
UPDATE HAVE DISBANDED WITH SIG LWR/IFR CONDS WITH TREND TOWARD
LESSER CERTAINTY OF OCCURRENCE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 250 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP
MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.UPDATE...BAND OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THESE SHOULD SPREAD INTO OUR REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  ALL IN ALL THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE...MAINLY TO DELAY THE CHANGE OVER TO MIXED
PRECIPITATION AN HOUR OR TWO GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WELL
ABOVE FREEZING.  STILL LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S MOST SECTIONS WITH LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HI-RES GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR BOTH HIGHLIGHT LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING
OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET
PULLING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WITH AN
UPPER WAVE TRAILING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING THAT PRECIP INITIALLY WILL
FALL AS A LIGHT RAIN. LOW LEVEL THERMALS WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
SNOW MIXING IN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
AFTER 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY IMPACTS FROM LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST
LOCATIONS ALL NIGHT. COULD SEE A TENTH OR SO OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS
BY DAYBREAK.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
PERSISTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT PEAK GUSTS AT 35-40MPH
THROUGH SUNSET...DROPPING BACK TO 25-30MPH DURING THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING BELOW 20MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEPARTS
OFF TO THE EAST.

TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE OUTPACED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED LOWS TONIGHT.
GENERALLY WENT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR LOWS FOR THIS
REASON...WITH ALL BUT THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY ABOVE 32F THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AND PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES TO LINGER OVER EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE MORNING AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT DIVES INTO THE BACK END
OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

PRIMARY ISSUE FOR SUNDAY WILL FOCUS ON THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH
CONSIDERING THE COLD ADVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY
SCOURING OUT DURING THE DAY. OP GFS AND NAM BOTH MAINTAIN A
HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF MOISTURE AT 925MB INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
AIR FINALLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BY LATE DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED
PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA AND HELD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND INTO THE EVENING
FURTHER EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING BY TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD FINALLY ENABLE SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

WARM ADVECTION RETURNS MONDAY IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U S AND AN UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING
WITH IT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH BULK OF THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT
HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY
SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF PREDOMINANT
LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED IMPACT FROM CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...LEANED TOWARDS
COOLER METMOS FOR HIGHS. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MAVMOS FOR MONDAY
HIGHS...THEN UNDERCUT ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP. TOOK A MOS
BLEND ON LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONG MEAN UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. MODELS WERE ALL ALSO SHOWING SEVERAL
CLIPPERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH CLIPPER SYSTEMS...THE MODELS HAVE A TOUGH
TIME COMING TOGETHER REGARDING TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES...SO A MODEL BLEND AND CONSISTENCY ARE FAVORED
OVER BIGGER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM RUN TO RUN. THE RESULT WILL
BE SMALL POPS OVER ALL OR PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. BUFKIT SUGGESTS MOSTLY SNOW CHANCES BUT POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH RAIN SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE
20S LOOK GOOD WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP PER THE 00Z REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180606Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z AS COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUILDS STRATOCUMULUS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF FLURRIES UNTIL
THE CLOUDS BREAK. VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY VFR IN ANY FLURRIES.

WINDS ARE GOING TO BE MOSTLY WEST. THEY WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS UNTIL
NEAR SUNSET...THEN DROP TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS. GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHEN
CONDITIONS ARE BEST FOR AIR TO MIX TO THE SURFACE FROM ALOFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1155 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP
MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

.UPDATE...BAND OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THESE SHOULD SPREAD INTO OUR REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  ALL IN ALL THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE...MAINLY TO DELAY THE CHANGE OVER TO MIXED
PRECIPITATION AN HOUR OR TWO GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WELL
ABOVE FREEZING.  STILL LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S MOST SECTIONS WITH LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HI-RES GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR BOTH HIGHLIGHT LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING
OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET
PULLING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WITH AN
UPPER WAVE TRAILING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING THAT PRECIP INITIALLY WILL
FALL AS A LIGHT RAIN. LOW LEVEL THERMALS WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
SNOW MIXING IN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
AFTER 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY IMPACTS FROM LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST
LOCATIONS ALL NIGHT. COULD SEE A TENTH OR SO OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS
BY DAYBREAK.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
PERSISTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT PEAK GUSTS AT 35-40MPH
THROUGH SUNSET...DROPPING BACK TO 25-30MPH DURING THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING BELOW 20MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEPARTS
OFF TO THE EAST.

TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE OUTPACED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED LOWS TONIGHT.
GENERALLY WENT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR LOWS FOR THIS
REASON...WITH ALL BUT THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY ABOVE 32F THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AND PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES TO LINGER OVER EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE MORNING AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT DIVES INTO THE BACK END
OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

PRIMARY ISSUE FOR SUNDAY WILL FOCUS ON THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH
CONSIDERING THE COLD ADVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY
SCOURING OUT DURING THE DAY. OP GFS AND NAM BOTH MAINTAIN A
HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF MOISTURE AT 925MB INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
AIR FINALLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BY LATE DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED
PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA AND HELD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND INTO THE EVENING
FURTHER EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING BY TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD FINALLY ENABLE SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

WARM ADVECTION RETURNS MONDAY IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U S AND AN UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING
WITH IT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH BULK OF THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT
HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY
SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF PREDOMINANT
LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED IMPACT FROM CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...LEANED TOWARDS
COOLER METMOS FOR HIGHS. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MAVMOS FOR MONDAY
HIGHS...THEN UNDERCUT ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP. TOOK A MOS
BLEND ON LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE DETAILS OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEMS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT. HAD TO ALTER
SUPERBLEND/S POPS...OTHERWISE GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO IT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES.

LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONE
SYSTEM EXITS. FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEPT A DRY FORECAST AND
REMOVED ANY SUPERBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SAKE OF
CONTINUITY.

ON THURSDAY SUPERBLEND IS DRY BUT AGAIN FOR SAKE OF CONTINUITY KEPT
SOME SMALL POPS IN THE FAR EAST. ON FRIDAY...12Z GFS AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL BRING A CLIPPER THROUGH THE AREA. 12Z ECMWF IS DRY.
SUPERBLEND IS DRY...BUT WITH 2 MODELS SHOWING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180606Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z AS COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUILDS STRATOCUMULUS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF FLURRIES UNTIL
THE CLOUDS BREAK. VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY VFR IN ANY FLURRIES.

WINDS ARE GOING TO BE MOSTLY WEST. THEY WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS UNTIL
NEAR SUNSET...THEN DROP TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS. GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHEN
CONDITIONS ARE BEST FOR AIR TO MIX TO THE SURFACE FROM ALOFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JK

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 154 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DECOUPLING THAT
HAS OCCURRED IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT A GENERAL MIXING OUT OF
THESE DECOUPLED VALLEYS HAS BEEN OCCURRING FROM WEST TO EAST. CWOP AND
MESONET STATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MIXING OUT HAS OCCURRED AS FAR
EAST AS THE KY RIVER BASIN AND MOST OF THE LIKING RIVER BASIN AS
WELL. A FEW SPOTS IN THE BIG SANDY REGION ARE AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK. HOWEVER...EVEN THESE LOCATIONS WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AS
CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
SHOWERS TOWARD DAWN ALSO WILL ADD TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE
TEMPERATURE CURVE AS WETBULBING SHOULD OCCUR. MEANWHILE...THE TOP OF BLACK
MTN IS CURRENTLY 34 DEGREES WITH A DEWPOINT OF 26...SO WETBULBING
SHOULD ALLOW MOST PRECIP THAT OCCURS THERE OR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500
FEET IN HARLAN COUNTY TO FALL AS SOME SNOW. THIS WILL AFFECT A VERY
SMALL AREA...HOWEVER. ALSO...WINDS NEAR 20 MPH ARE OCCURRING IN
EXPOSED LOCATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET...WITH SOME 10 TO 15 MPH WINDS ALSO
RECENTLY OBSERVED FROM ABOUT THE ESCARPMENT WEST. ADJUSTMENTS HAVE
ALSO BEEN MADE TO THE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

RECENT SREF GUIDANCE AS WELL AS HRRR DATA SHOW A SOLID...BUT BRIEF
WIND OF SHOWERS AND THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUPPORTS
THIS. AS THIS MOVES EAST...KY MESONET DATA HAS BEEN SHOWING THESE
MEASURING FROM THE WESTERN KY PARKWAY NORTH INTO INDIANA. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DIG AND BECOME NEUTRALLY TITLED IF NOT A BIT
NEGATIVELY TILTED BY THE TIME IT EXITS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION
AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR...BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO LIKELY TO CAT FOR A
WINDOW FROM THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING ON SUNDAY
THAT TRANSLATES FROM WEST TO EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH A LARGE RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT STILL IN PLACE THROUGH PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
FOR INSTANCE...QUICKSAND MESONET IS AT 31 DEGREES WHILE A COUPLE OF
MILES AWAY AND 700 FEET OR SO HIGHER THE JKL OFFICE IS SITTING AT 48
DEGREES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE TEMPERATURES
AND ALSO THE LOWS OVERNIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE THICKER CLOUDS
ARRIVING AND PCPN CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT
MODELS. THESE MINOR GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. ACCOMPANYING THE LOW IS A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
MIDWEST AND INBOUND TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EAST KENTUCKY IS AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...UNDER
STILL CLEAR SKIES...THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED OFF FAST
TOWARD THE DEWPOINTS...GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THESE PLACES ARE IN THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S ALREADY THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
PRIMARILY HONE IN ON THIS QUICK DROP OFF IN THE VALLEYS. DO ALLOW
THESE SPOTS TO MIX OUT AND WARM TOWARDS DAWN ON THE CUSP OF THE COLD
FRONT. THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT HELPING TO CAP THE TEMP DROP. WHEN THE FRONT...AND RAIN THAT
WILL ACCOMPANY IT...MOVES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THE TEMPERATURES WILL
BOUNCE BACK UP IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS MITIGATING ANY CONCERN FOR
SOME FREEZING PCPN AT THE LEADING EDGE OF ANY RAIN. HAVE ALSO FINE
TUNED THE FRONT/S PASSAGE AND TIMING OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT
IN THE POP AND WX GRIDS THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. THESE UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

GUSTY SSW WINDS HAVE PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO
20 TO 30 MPH...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ON THE THE HIGHER RIDGES
OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS MAY DECOUPLE TONIGHT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S WHILE MOST AREAS SEE LOWS CLOSER TO
40.

AT 18Z A MID LEVEL TROF WAS MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MS
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN UPPER
MI SSW TO NE OK. AT THIS POINT THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONT AND
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT DEEP MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LIMITED
AS THESE FEATURES APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA N INTO OH. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING AND KEEP LIKELY RAIN PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTH WITH LOWER
CHANCES IN THE SOUTH. TIMING FOR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS TO
BE EARLY IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WEAK CAA WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT BY EVENING WEAK WAA WILL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN. DESPITE THE
LIMITED COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT
TEMPERATURE RISES ON SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER
THAN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD ACROSS THE AREA. HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE HAVE
SUNDAY NIGHT IS IN QUESTION AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH A
MIDDLE GROUND ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT SKY COVER FORECAST AND GO WITH
TEMPERATURES AT FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY AND MILD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE OF THE
REGION. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY. THE WARM AIR
WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS TO START OFF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. THE WARM WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGIONS BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN ON TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE COOL DOWN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY. SOME SNOW MAY
MIX IN WITH THE RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
BOTTOMED OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SLOWLY SPINNING ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FROM MID WEEK ONWARD. THERE ARE TWO ISSUES THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL FACE AS THEY MOVE EAST...A LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE FEED
AND WEAK LIFT. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRETTY MUCH DUE WEST
THROUGH THE PERIODS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...UPSLOPE LIFT WOULD
BE WEAK AT BEST. THE FORECAST TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT
THIS SCENARIO. FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY ONWARD...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF EITHER A RAIN SNOW MIX DURING THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIODS...AND ALL SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF FRIDAY. THE
COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH OUR WEATHER MAKERS IN THE EXTENDED WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA TO END THE WEEK. DUE TO THE REINTRODUCTION OF
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY TIME PERIODS EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY...AND THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE A BIT...WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE PERIOD...AND
BELOW NORMAL READINGS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. DECIDED TO DECREASE
THE DAYTIME HIGHS THE MODEL BLEND GAVE ME THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BY A
DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY...ACCOUNTING FOR CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...BEFORE LOWERING CEILINGS AND A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 9Z AND 15Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR AT LEAST BRIEFLY IN THIS BAND AND FOR A TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT...CIGS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR OR NEAR THE MVFR/VFR
BREAK. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST INITIALLY AT SME...SYM AND SJS...WITH
LOZ AND JKL INCREASING ALONG THE BAND OF SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BE MORE UNIFORM AT 10 TO
15 KTS INTO THE DAY SUNDAY WITH CIG GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR IN ALL
AREAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 338 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER WILL MOVE EAST
DURING THE DAY. HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS HRRR FOR THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION. MANY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION
MARKEDLY DROPPING IN COVERAGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY DUE TO
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING CUT OFF BY FEATURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIPITATION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
COLDER AIR ALLOWS FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP TO BEGIN ANEW.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE REMAINED WELL ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW. 00Z SYNOPTIC MODELS CANNOT SEEM TO HANDLE THIS...AND
HAVE INITIALIZED TEMPS QUITE POORLY. EVEN HI-RES MODELS LIKE THE RAP
AND HRRR ARE ALSO STRUGGLING. HAVE RELIED ON GFSLAMP TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE TODAY...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE TOO SLOW IN BRINGING IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS
DAYTIME SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TO A HALF INCH OR LESS...PRIMARILY
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE USUAL FAVORED LOCATIONS. WHILE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL...MOST OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE WILL BE ABOVE THE MOISTURE. HAVE GONE WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOW ALONG INTERSTATE 80 AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WV/MD...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. WHILE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...THEY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE RIDGES MONDAY MORNING...WITH UP TO
ANOTHER HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE. AS FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY...SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
DRY...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO VARY BY TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME
AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A SECOND SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEMS AND THE AMOUNT OF PHASING THAT WILL OCCUR IS DEPICTED
DIFFERENTLY BY EVERY MODEL. SINCE 12Z MODEL RUNS WERE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THESE SYSTEMS...WILL ESSENTIALLY
LEAVE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST STATUS QUO UNTIL MODELS CAN COME
BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE JANUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL RUNS ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW
REASONABLE CONSENSUS AND GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE GENERAL
IDEA...BUT VARY WIDELY IN DETAILS. IN ANY CASE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS MEAN TROUGHING REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY...AND
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING RELATIVELY CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNITE AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AND LLWS CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SFC WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED FROM
WINDS ALOFT...WITH 35-40KTS VIA MDCRS AT 2500FT AND AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL MID MORNING CLOSER TO
FROPA....WHICH STILL LOOKS TO BE AT THE FOLLOWING TIMES 13Z
ZZV...15Z PIT...16Z LBE. AFTER IT PASSES...ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MIX AND EVENTUALLY TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND 2-3SM FOR VIS WITH SHSN MOST OF
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH CONCURRENCE FROM GRIDDED DATASETS ROLLED
WITH CLIMO FAVORED IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS. AT
HIGHER FREQUENCY IFR SITES...FKL/DUJ/ZZV OPTED FOR IFR CIGS AS
WELL. NOW GRANTED THERE WILL BE SHORT PERIODS WHERE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED. PCPN WINDS DOWN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF
THE FORECAST AT ZZV...WHILE AT THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRPORTS
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS YET TO PASS THROUGH.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAIN SPEED ECLIPSING THE CRITICAL 12KT THRESHOLD AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 2O TO 25 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 246 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 225 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2015

Main forecast issue today is how warm to go with temps. The weak
cold front has pushed east of the area and the core of coolest air
is already centered east of the CWA. Surface winds remain westerly
at this time and warm advection aloft has begun. All signals
currently point to raising the high temperatures. Heights aloft
will be on the rise in the wake of the departing upper trof, low
level WAA will be occuring, surface winds will have a largely
westerly component while backing slightly this afternoon, and
temps at this early morning hour are not very cold. The only
clouds should be a swath of high clouds passing west to east. Sans
the HRRR and RAP, the 2m model temps and MOS guidance has exhibited
a pretty good cool bias the last few days. The HRRR and RAP have
peformed rather well and the new forecast for today nudges highs
closer to them with another day of well above average temperatures.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2015

The models depict a weak surface low migrating east-southeastward
from near Kansas City into southern Illinois tonight along a wind
shift boundary, and then lift this boundary to the east of the CWA
during the day on Monday. There has been some type of this depiction
the last few days in the models, however the placement now is further
south and leaves into question the nature of the surface wind field
on Monday and strength of warm advection. I have lowered temps
slightly as a result, but taking into account the cool bias, not
as much as MOS and they are still above average.

Another northwest flow shortwave will amplify as it moves through
the area Tuesday into Tuesday Night. There is initially a westerly
wind shift on Monday night in response, with increasing baroclinicity
and cold advection on Tuesday and Tuesday night as the heights
aloft really begin to fall. A greater number of the models are now
generating precipitation across southern MO and southern IL on
Tuesday in response to mid level convergence/frontogenesis, weak
large scale ascent, and divergence associated with the ULJ. I have
added some slight chance pops as a result, but these pops may need
to be ramped up should the current model trends persist.

Cooler temperatures, more seasonable for the later part of January,
will prevail during the later part of the week and into the
weekend however confidence in the degree of cooling is low. The
large scale pattern will once again become more amplified with an
upper ridge from the East Pacific into western North America and a
downstream longwave trof dominating a good portion of the Conus
which favors overall cooler weather. However, there is considerable
variability in the deterministic models and GEFS ensemble members
with the shortwaves moving through the longwave leading to lower
than normal predicatability.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2015

VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites thru the valid
period. Surface winds from the W will be maintained until midday-
early Sunday afternoon, with backing and diminishing occurring
ahead of a weak area of low pressure that will approach our
region and light/variable winds continuing into Sunday evening.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR thru the period. Otherwise, look for W
surface winds to diminish/back Sunday afternoon ahead of a weak
area of low pressure approaching upstream with light/variable
winds continuing into Sunday night.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

 1040 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BEEN A TOUGH NIGHT IN TERMS OF FG/LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA. RESTRICTIONS HAVE REMAINED ON THE COLORADO SIDE
THROUGH 6Z. INGREDIENTS ARE STILL IN PLACE FOR RESTRICTIONS ON THE
NM SIDE SO JUST DELAYED LIFR CONDITIONS AT FMN UNTIL LATER IN
THE NIGHT. NEXT SHIFT WILL REASSESS AND MONITOR ACCORDINGLY. CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ALSO LOOKING AT A
STRENGTHENING LEE SIDE TROUGH THROUGH THE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HORUS BEFORE WEAKENING SOME. GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KT
INDICATED AT LVS/TCC.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. LIKE LAST NIGHT...VISIBILITIES
MAY FALL BELOW ONE HALF MILE CREATING A THIN GLAZE OF ICE ON
ROADWAYS. ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY WINDS WILL AID IN WARMING UP
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMTH
WILL REMAIN IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
WILL YO-YO BACK DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY THANKS TO A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION RETURNS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE ONCE AGAIN PLAGUED NW NM TODAY. THOUGH THE
FOG LIFTED AT OR SHORTLY BEFORE NOON...THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED
KEEPING TEMPERATURES QUITE COLD AND WELL BELOW ANY GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
GIVEN THAT THEY DID NOT GET OUT OF THE MUCK TODAY...IT IS HIGHLY
LIKELY THAT THE SAME WILL HAPPEN AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR PROGS SUPPORT THIS...AND THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FROM 9PM TONIGHT TIL 10AM SUN FOR ZONES
501-502-504. FOR ZONE 504...THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE WEST/NW OF
THE CONTDVD.

MEANWHILE...THE BACK DOOR FRONT OR WIND SHIFT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED
BEHIND IT. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO NOTED BEHIND IT...THUS AS
OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS BACK DOOR FRONTS...NO LOW CLOUDS OR FOG ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE NW MOST LIKELY
AGAIN...AND ADDITIONALLY...A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN...WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR FARMINGTON AND SURROUNDING AREAS FOR MAX TEMPS.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS
ALLOWING FOR BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY WINDS. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR BETWEEN 5 AND NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. IN FACT...EXCEPT FOR THE FMN AREA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS SHOULD ALSO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THOUGH NOT AS
MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE QUITE WARM...THOUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS NW NM.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS IN STORE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TUESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES
FROM MONDAYS READINGS. WESTERN AREAS WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL...THANKS TO A VEIL OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE BACK DOOR FRONT LOOKS TO BE REINFORCED LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN TEMPS CONTINUING TO DROP. WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT ORGANIZING STORM
SYSTEM. MODELS INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
INTO AZ OUT OF NW FLOW ALOFT LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS
INDICATE A BAND OF MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NM ALONG THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WEDNESDAY AFTN...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN IF
ANY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS.  THE EC IS THE MOST
BULLISH ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP...BUT EVEN THEN WOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHAT WILL HAPPEN THEREAFTER. THE
GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM CLOSING OFF NEAR THE BOOTHEEL WHILE THE EC
CONTINUES TO MIGRATE THE TROUGH EASTWARD. BASED ON THE
LATTER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY END BY FRIDAY...THOUGH IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT...PRECIP COULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM ENERGY DROPPING INTO
THE REGION BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS WONKY AT BEST. SIDED MORE WITH THE
DRIER EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE FRI AND BEYOND FOR NOW. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE VENTILATION RATES...WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY POOR TO FAIR.

COLD FRONT MADE IT THROUGH ROSWELL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SHROUD THE NORTHWEST TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE IT IS
SUNNY AND RATHER COMFORTABLE FOR MID JANUARY.

TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU. DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN AS WELL
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE EAST BUT 70S AND 80S IN THE WEST.

A NICE DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH
FILTERED BY HIGH CLOUDS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ONTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HIGHER AT MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS TROUGH. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST...WHILE ELSEWHERE
THEY WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S AND 30S...40S IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE
CLOUDS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY ONCE AGAIN AND HOLD DOWN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE THE
VENT RATES THAT WILL BE POOR IN MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
AREAS...WITH SOME FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST OWING TO THE WINDS
HELPING RAISE THE MIXING HEIGHTS SOME. NIGHTTIME RH RECOVERIES WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S AND 60S IN THE EAST AND MOSTLY BETWEEN 80 AND
100 PERCENT IN THE WEST.

THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE
AND EVEN MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT COULD REACH THE NORTHEAST AND PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT
LOWER THAN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOWER OVER THE EAST...WITH MODERATE
BREEZES FROM CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA ROSA. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN
THE 20S AND 30S. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE A BIT MOST AREAS...BUT
STILL BE FAIR TO POOR IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FAIR OR
BETTER IN THE EAST. THERE WILL EVEN BE SOME VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENT RATES IN THE NORTHEAST THANKS TO HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH
COOLER DAY ON TAP FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY SO IN
THE EAST. MIN RH VALUES WILL ONLY LOWER TO THE 30S AND 40S. TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE EAST DURING THE MORNING
DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. VENT RATES WILL DROP BACK TO
MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR VALUES TUESDAY...EXCEPT SOME GOOD RATES RIGHT
ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER.

A REINFORCING FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND WE
COULD SEE OUR FIRST LIGHT PRECIPITATION OF THE WEEK DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE
NIGHTTIME RH RECOVERIES WILL BE MOSTLY EXCELLENT.

A STRENGTHENING TROUGH TO OUR WEST MAY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE STATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH CHILLY...BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME MIN RH VALUES ONLY IN THE 40S TO
60S. AGAIN THE VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

MOST MODELS THEN DRY THINGS OUT FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501-503-504.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 414 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PASSES TODAY. UPPER DISTURBANCES MID TO LATE WEEK IN AN
UNSETTLED AND COOLING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
USING THE HRRR THIS MORNING FOR THE TIMING OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS
SLATED TO ENTER THE SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
AREA BY 12Z. FORCING WILL PEAK OUT RIGHT AROUND THIS TIME AND EXPECT
IT GO FRONTOLYTIC AS IT CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
STILL CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN IMPRESSED WITH THE RATE OF THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION OFF THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY WHEN USING THIS TO
DETERMINE THE TRANSITION TIME FROM RAIN TO SNOW. IN THE END...THIS
WILL NOT BE A QUICK TRANSITION...EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ONLY
GET THE -8C CONTOUR INTO OUR CWA AFTER 03Z MONDAY.

ONCE AGAIN...WE ARE LEFT WITH YET ANOTHER IMPERFECT UPSLOPE SCENARIO
FOR TONIGHT AS ALREADY MENTIONED IN TERMS OF THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
LOW LEVEL STREAMLINES ARE NEARLY WESTERLY WITHOUT A GREAT MOISTURE
FEED FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THAT BEING SAID...THINK THE BEST TIME FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE FROM AROUND 03Z TO 09Z
TONIGHT. THINK A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES IS THE WAY TO GO FOR THIS EVENT
WITH AN ISOLATED 3 INCH TOTAL FOR THE EXPOSED WESTERLY RIDGES.

FOR THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...HAVE SOME REASONABLY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF A DIURNAL VERSUS NON DIURNAL TREND. SOME
LOCATIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACTUALLY WERE ABLE TO
RADIATE...LIKE I16/PINEVILLE AND OTHER SCATTERED LOCATIONS...WHILE
HIGHER POINTS EXPOSED TO WIND HAVE STAYED IN THE 40S. THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE AT THEIR MAX TEMP FOR THE DAY AS THE SUN RISES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO. NO CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE
NUMBERS TO HELP OUT AND WILL FAVOR THE MET FOR NOW WHICH SUPPORTS
THE DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A VERY BUSY AND DIFFICULT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN
WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
JUICY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS
IS THEREFORE A RATHER NUISANCE BUT UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A COOLING
TREND FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH DIFFICULTY
TO FOLLOW AND TIME THESE DISTURBANCES. MODELS HAVE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT DROPPING ACROSS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
REINFORCING COOL SHOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE IS
MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE THIS MAIN
DISTURBANCE...AND THEREFORE TRACK/TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SURFACE LOW RANGE FROM
THE SLOWEST AND MOST WELL DEVELOPED CMC SOLUTION THAT TRACKS THE LOW
ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT...TO THE FASTEST
EURO WITH A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE CMC BUT LESS DEVELOPED LOW...TO THE
FARTHEST NORTH AND WEAKEST SOLUTION OF THE NAM THAT TRACKS THE LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS A TRUE MIDDLE GROUND AND
A GOOD COMPROMISE...TAKING A WEAKER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REDEVELOPING IT EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW.

THIS GFS ACCEPTED SOLUTION THEN HAS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW...FOLLOWED BY THE LOW CUTTING ACROSS
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT.

MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK HOGGING
THINGS WELL TO THE SOUTH. BUT FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FROM THE WARM FRONT
AND FOLLOWING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT...AND MOIST COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED AND COOLING TREND FOR MID WEEK.

SPECIFICALLY...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING WITH THE WARM
FRONT TUESDAY WITH MILD AIR...THEN A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT TRENDING TOWARD A WINTRY MIX LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AND FINALLY SOME LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE 30S
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE...A CLIPPER MOVES IN MID WEEK...SPREADING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA. AFTER THAT...MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE THAT THERE IS NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT TO NOTE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.


BIGGEST QUESTION IS MVFR OR IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE TAFS. FIGURE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR WILL BE AT PKB AND POSSIBLY HTS LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LINE SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT ADVANCES TO THE EAST...AND WILL RIDE MVFR CONDITIONS
AS IT PASSES THROUGH CKB/CRW AND FINALLY INTO EKN/BKW AFTER 15Z.
WILL BE A QUICK MOVER AND ALSO BRING MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE
SHOWERS AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

UPSLOPE SNOW POTENTIAL EXISTS AFTER 00Z MONDAY WHEN THE
TEMPERATURE DROPS BELOW FREEZING...AND SHOULD SEE IFR SNOW LATE AT
CKB AND EKN TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM SUNDAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND AND
RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 01/18/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...26








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PORTLAND OR

 1134 PM PST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY N INTO
WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ASHORE A LITTLE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN REACH THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MON. HIGHER PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER EXTREME ERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON TUESDAY RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS PATTERN SHOULD HOLD WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION AND IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES FOOTHILLS. THE WINDS ARE DECREASING BEHIND
THE FRONT AND HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE BEACHES
AND HEADLANDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
THE INTENSITY OF THE GUSTS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. THE RAIN HAS
BECOME MORE SHOWERY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DECREASE IN RAIN
RATES...BUT STILL EXPECT OCCASSIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TJ

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DRIFT N
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE WARMER AIR HAD REACHED THE WEST SIDE
OF THE N WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS OF 03Z...WITH KHIO AT 55 DEG. COOLER
AIR REMAINED TRAPPED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE N VALLEY WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS AT -5.5 MB JUST BEFORE
04Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT KTTD. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING
HEAVIER RETURNS ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. INFRA-RED SATELLITE LOOP WITH NAM 12 SFC PRES
OVERLAID SHOWED A NEAR 990 MB LOW PRES CENTER AT 47N 129W MOVING TO
THE NE. TRAILING END OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKED TO BE NEAR 125W AT
0330Z. FRONT MAY MOVE ASHORE A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE NAM INDICATED.
KRTX VELOCITY DISPLAY INDICATED 60-65 KT S-SW WIND ABOUT 5000 FT MSL.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN AT GARIBALDI...
AROUND 55 MPH...WITH A COUPLE ISOLATED GUSTS 55 TO 60 MPH. THE PEAK
WIND PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE THROUGH ABOUT 07Z.

SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR PORTIONS OF THE N OREGON
CASCADES AND IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE. NEARLY 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAD
FALLEN AT THE 5880 FT TIMBERLINE SENSOR...WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO
0.5 INCHES PER HR THIS AFTERNOON. AROUND 1.5 TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN
IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE. FORTUNATELY...THE HEAVIER RAIN RATES HAVE
PUSHED INTO WASHINGTON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 3-6 HR PERIOD TONIGHT
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONT. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS 03Z-06Z AS THE HRRR MODEL WAS HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVED TOWARD THE COASTLINE. DID NOT INCLUDE
THE COASTAL ZONES AT THIS TIME. NAMM SOUNDING FOR KAST NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES...BUT SOMETHING THAT WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THE FRONT MOVES ASHORE.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND...AIR MASS TRANSITIONS TO A COOLER
MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POST FRONTAL
UNSTABLE LAYER IS LIMITED VERTICALLY BY SOME SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SO
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY DEEP...PROBABLY UP TO
AROUND 15K FT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ON SUN WILL PROVIDE SOME
DYNAMIC LIFT FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT AIDING
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF MOUNTAINS. WEST FLOW ALOFT COMING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED A BIT...BUT BY LATE SUN ENOUGH
COOLING OCCURS TO DROP THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN BELOW MOST CASCADE PASSES.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DROP OFF FROM S TO N SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTHWARD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DEGREE OF
THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST MON NIGHT AND
TUE. COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN MON NIGHT
AND PERSIST TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BEGINNING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AT MID WEEK...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER BUT WITH PLENTY OF VALLEY FOG UNDER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MODELS AGREE IN WEAKENING THE RIDGE THU AND
FRI...ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH. LOOKS LIKE WHATEVER SYSTEMS
BREAK THROUGH WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO OVERALL WILL TEND TO
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE...PEAKING WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
N ON FRI WHEN MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL. WILL THEN TREND BACK TO DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AGAIN.
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES REMAINING MVFR WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40
KTS AT KONP. EXPECT WINDS TO RAMP UP TO GUSTS NEAR 50 KT JUST
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. INTERIOR VALLEY SITES PRIMARILY
MVFR...WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS TO VFR CIGS AS WINDS ARE RAMPING UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH. SO FAR KPDX AND KTTD STILL HAVE SOLID EASTERLY
WINDS WITH A TTD-DLS GRADIENT OF -4.6 KEEPING WINDS OUT OF THE
EAST. AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES FURTHER NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN SOUTHERLY AND RAMP UP LATER TONIGHT.
UNTIL THEN...WIND SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS FROM SFC TO FL020 IS BEING
OBSERVED VIA AMDAR SOUNDING DATA OUT OF PDX...WITH EASTERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE AT INTERIOR VALLEY SITES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AROUND 9-10Z. WINDS WILL EASE BEHIND THE FRONT...VEERING
WINDS MORE WESTERLY BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. CIGS MAY RISE A LITTLE AT
THIS TIME...BUT STAY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 015 AND 025 AGL. EXCEPTIONS
WILL LIKELY BE KONP AND KEUG WHERE IFR COULD PREVAIL ALL DAY.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT...WITH LLWS UNTIL WINDS VEER TO SOUTH AROUND 06Z. WINDS
AFTER 06Z WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KT
LIKELY. WINDS EASE AFTER 09Z BEHIND COLD FRONT...FALLING BELOW 20
KT BY 10Z. CIGS LIFT SOME AROUND 12-14Z...BUT LIKELY WILL STAY
BELOW FL040 ALL DAY THUS LIMITING VISUAL APPROACHES. -MCCOY/JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT AT BUOY 29.
SOUTHERLY WINDS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...GUSTING TO 45 KT
AS FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. SEAS NOT INCREASING AT RATE
EXPECTED...SO SEAS LIKELY TO PEAK A BIT LOWER AROUND 16 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND STAY UP IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS VEER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND REMAIN ABOVE 20 KT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY. WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN OVER SOUTHERN WATERS SUNDAY
MORNING...DROPPING BELOW 20 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE UNTIL DROPPING BELOW 10 FT TUESDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE
WA...NONE
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

 902 PM PST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY N INTO
WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ASHORE A LITTLE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN REACH THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MON. HIGHER PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER EXTREME ERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON TUESDAY RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS PATTERN SHOULD HOLD WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DRIFT N OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING. THE WARMER AIR HAD REACHED THE WEST SIDE OF THE N
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS OF 03Z...WITH KHIO AT 55 DEG. COOLER AIR
REMAINED TRAPPED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE N VALLEY WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS AT -5.5 MB JUST BEFORE 04Z
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT KTTD. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING
HEAVIER RETURNS ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. INFRA-RED SATELLITE LOOP WITH NAM 12 SFC PRES
OVERLAID SHOWED A NEAR 990 MB LOW PRES CENTER AT 47N 129W MOVING TO
THE NE. TRAILING END OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKED TO BE NEAR 125W AT
0330Z. FRONT MAY MOVE ASHORE A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE NAM INDICATED.
KRTX VELOCITY DISPLAY INDICATED 60-65 KT S-SW WIND ABOUT 5000 FT MSL.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN AT GARIBALDI...
AROUND 55 MPH...WITH A COUPLE ISOLATED GUSTS 55 TO 60 MPH. THE PEAK
WIND PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE THROUGH ABOUT 07Z.

SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR PORTIONS OF THE N OREGON
CASCADES AND IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE. NEARLY 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAD
FALLEN AT THE 5880 FT TIMBERLINE SENSOR...WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO
0.5 INCHES PER HR THIS AFTERNOON. AROUND 1.5 TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN
IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE. FORTUNATELY...THE HEAVIER RAIN RATES HAVE
PUSHED INTO WASHINGTON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 3-6 HR PERIOD TONIGHT
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONT. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS 03Z-06Z AS THE HRRR MODEL WAS HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVED TOWARD THE COASTLINE. DID NOT INCLUDE
THE COASTAL ZONES AT THIS TIME. NAMM SOUNDING FOR KAST NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES...BUT SOMETHING THAT WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THE FRONT MOVES ASHORE.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND...AIR MASS TRANSITIONS TO A COOLER
MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POST FRONTAL
UNSTABLE LAYER IS LIMITED VERTICALLY BY SOME SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SO
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY DEEP...PROBABLY UP TO
AROUND 15K FT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ON SUN WILL PROVIDE SOME
DYNAMIC LIFT FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT AIDING
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF MOUNTAINS. WEST FLOW ALOFT COMING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED A BIT...BUT BY LATE SUN ENOUGH
COOLING OCCURS TO DROP THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN BELOW MOST CASCADE PASSES.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DROP OFF FROM S TO N SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTHWARD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DEGREE OF
THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST MON NIGHT AND
TUE. COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN MON NIGHT
AND PERSIST TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BEGINNING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AT MID WEEK...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER BUT WITH PLENTY OF VALLEY FOG UNDER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MODELS AGREE IN WEAKENING THE RIDGE THU AND
FRI...ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH. LOOKS LIKE WHATEVER SYSTEMS
BREAK THROUGH WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO OVERALL WILL TEND TO
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE...PEAKING WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
N ON FRI WHEN MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL. WILL THEN TREND BACK TO DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AGAIN.
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES REMAINING MVFR WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40
KTS AT KONP. EXPECT WINDS TO RAMP UP TO GUSTS NEAR 50 KT JUST
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. INTERIOR VALLEY SITES PRIMARILY
MVFR...WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS TO VFR CIGS AS WINDS ARE RAMPING UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH. SO FAR KPDX AND KTTD STILL HAVE SOLID EASTERLY
WINDS WITH A TTD-DLS GRADIENT OF -4.6 KEEPING WINDS OUT OF THE
EAST. AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES FURTHER NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN SOUTHERLY AND RAMP UP LATER TONIGHT.
UNTIL THEN...WIND SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS FROM SFC TO FL020 IS BEING
OBSERVED VIA AMDAR SOUNDING DATA OUT OF PDX...WITH EASTERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE AT INTERIOR VALLEY SITES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AROUND 9-10Z. WINDS WILL EASE BEHIND THE FRONT...VEERING
WINDS MORE WESTERLY BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. CIGS MAY RISE A LITTLE AT
THIS TIME...BUT STAY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 015 AND 025 AGL. EXCEPTIONS
WILL LIKELY BE KONP AND KEUG WHERE IFR COULD PREVAIL ALL DAY.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT...WITH LLWS UNTIL WINDS VEER TO SOUTH AROUND 06Z. WINDS
AFTER 06Z WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KT
LIKELY. WINDS EASE AFTER 09Z BEHIND COLD FRONT...FALLING BELOW 20
KT BY 10Z. CIGS LIFT SOME AROUND 12-14Z...BUT LIKELY WILL STAY
BELOW FL040 ALL DAY THUS LIMITING VISUAL APPROACHES. -MCCOY/JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT AT BUOY 29.
SOUTHERLY WINDS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...GUSTING TO 45 KT
AS FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. SEAS NOT INCREASING AT RATE
EXPECTED...SO SEAS LIKELY TO PEAK A BIT LOWER AROUND 16 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND STAY UP IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS VEER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND REMAIN ABOVE 20 KT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY. WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN OVER SOUTHERN WATERS SUNDAY
MORNING...DROPPING BELOW 20 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE UNTIL DROPPING BELOW 10 FT TUESDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM PST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1147 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH SUNDAY IS ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...A MID LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS DIGGING TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA WITH A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW EXTENDS SOUTH TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTH OF IT THROUGH NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS
OCCURRING IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH WHERE LIFT/MOISTURE IS DEEPER. THE QUESTION
IS WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP HAVE SHOWN THAT THE MOISTURE/LIFT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH SOUTH OF CLARK AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AM NOT EXPECTING
DRIZZLE TO BE AN ISSUE BECAUSE WHERE THERE IS LIFT...THE MOISTURE
GETS DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THAT
FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH ANY GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK ALREADY INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER IN WESTERN TO
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE CORE OF THE TROUGH/LOW WILL BE
CLOSER.

WHILE WE LIKELY WILL NOT HIT 40 AGAIN TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP MUCH BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH THE MAIN POOL OF COLDER
850MB TRACKING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

THE NEXT FEATURE TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT IS
ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT DROPS DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE FIRST ROUND FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW APPEARS TO COME IN ON MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THOUGH TRENDS FROM ALL OF THE GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE
17.12Z GFS SEEM TO BE TAKING THIS BELT OF LIFT FROM WARM AIR
ADVECTION FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THE 17.12Z ECMWF HAS A UNIQUE
SOLUTION WITH BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA WITH AN
850MB TROUGH. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW APPEAR TO COME
IN ON TUESDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THERMAL PROFILES
LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING ALL SNOW
BUT FORCING LOOKS WEAK SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. BEYOND THAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THOUGH THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY ON THE MILD SIDE. A
COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE POTENTIALLY OUT THERE AS WELL THOUGH
TIMING/TRACK IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

CLEARING LINE EXTENDS FROM KLXL TO KMSP TO KRST TO KPDC AS OF
18.0530Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT RESULTING
IN VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF AIRFIELDS. FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MVFR CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
MN SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE TO THE SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KLSE/KRST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN RECENT MODEL
PERFORMANCE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE
CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 3000 FT AGL...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH AS NEW
GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE. NORTHWEST WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BECOMING LIGHT BY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 652 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN...MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING TO
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COLDER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY INTO THE MID 30S. IT
WILL BE DRY TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

DISJOINTED SYSTEM MOVG THROUGH SRN GRTLKS THIS AM WITH WEAK
PREFRONTAL ZONE PUSHING THROUGH OHIO ATTM WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND PARALLEL ISENTROPIC FLOW LENDING TO MEAGER LIFT
WITHIN THIN BREADTH OF RICHEST BULK MOISTURE. CWA NOW WITHIN DRY
SLOTTING/STRONG 1000-850MB MOISTURE FLUX DIVERGENCE WITH I280K
DOWNSLOPE DESPITE STRONG 160-180M/12 HR HFC MOVG THROUGH CNTL/SRN
IN AND LARGELY IN VOID OF RAFL SAVE FOR FAR NWRN/FAR SERN EDGES.
GIVEN SIG DOWNTURN IN BULK MOISTURE WITH ONLY LITTLE ENHANCEMENT
IN UPSTREAM COMMAHEAD PER WV IMAGERY AND FINE LINE LIGHT PRECIP
BAND WITH MARKED DPCVA HAVE CONTD WITH LOWER END CHC/SLIGHT CHC
POPS HIGHLIGHTING LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIP. SLIGHT INCREASE IN
HEIGHT/SLOWER COLLAPSE OF RUC WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WITH WARM SFC
BASED BLYR STILL LEADING TO LIQUID PTYPE ACRS NERN IL. SLIGHT LK
ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONING ACRS FAR NWRN CWA FOR HIEST POPS BYND
PREFIRST PD. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT 295MB CAA TO
KEEP DIURNAL RISES WELL IN CHECK...ONLY ABOUT 3 DEGREE RISE OVR
12-15 UTC LOWS. SMALL AMPLITUDE RIDGING THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT AS
TROF AXIS CONTS TO ROTATE THROUGH LWR GRTLKS INTO NEW ENGLAND.
POSSIBLE WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTION OFF LEE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH
WEAK SFC REFLECTION INTO SERN MO BY DAYBREAK MONDAY PER WELL
CLUSTERED MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER THIS PRESENTS NO SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT GIVEN FEATURES DISTAL NATURE/DEEP LAYER
DESCENT OWING TO RISING 80-100M/12 HR 5H RISES AND DEARTH OF
MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH LOW/PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN
HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD AS SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES IN
AMPLIFYING MEAN WNW FLOW DIG SE THROUGH THE LAKES/OH VALLEY.
CONSENSUS TREND IN 00Z GUIDANCE WAS TOWARD A DRIER SYSTEM LOCALLY
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INITIAL LEAD PV PUSH/850-700 MB FGEN
SIGNAL NORTH INTO CENTRAL MI TUESDAY...AND DEEPER LIFT/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TIED TO A MORE PRONOUNCED/DIGGING SHORTWAVE FOCUSING
SE OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT LOWERED POPS FOR
LGT RN/SN MIX IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS FOLLOW IN QUICK
SUCCESSION MAKING IT HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT CHANCES FOR -SN
IN ANY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

ONLY ANTICIPATE BRIEF PD OF HIGH END IFR CIGS AT KFWA WITH PASSAGE
OF SECONDARY TROF MOVG EWD THROUGH NRN/NERN IN ATTM. THIS IN LINE
WITH UPSTREAM OB TRENDS SEEN AT KSBN KRCR KASW. CYCLONIC FLOW WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND 925-8H COLD POOL UPSTREAM...SHOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD STRATOCU THROUGH MUCH OF FCST PD. ATTEMPT TO BRING MORE
OPTIMISM WITH FCSTS OUT OF FUELING/ALTERNATE CRITERIA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CERTAINTY A QUESTION GIVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC
GUIDANCE/BUFKIT NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1030 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

RAIN HAS EXITED THE AREA...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
STILL OUT THERE ACROSS OUR EAST. AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP THROUGH THE
MID DAY TIME FRAME...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT IN COMBINATION
WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO
REFORM ACROSS OUR EXTREME EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS THAT THE
RAP...NAM AND GFS HAVE ALL PICKED UP ON THIS POTENTIAL. THE HRRR HAS
AS WELL...BUT IS ADVERTISING A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT AREAL THREAT WITH
RESPECT TO COVERAGE. WILL WATCH TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR
NOW INCREASED POPS IN OUR EXTREME EAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE BROUGHT GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS.
FOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS...WEAK CAA AND REDEVELOPMENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
CU FIELD WILL BATTLE DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN NEARLY STEADY TO
SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION...
SATELLITE...AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. THIS LED TO GENERALLY A QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE CWA AND A LITTLE COLDER
TEMPS IN WESTERN SECTIONS. OTHERWISE...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE
MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ATTM. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT...REGIONAL
ASOS SITES AND KY MESONET SITES INDICATE THAT MEASURABLE RAIN HAS
FALLEN ALONG THE NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL KY. THIS BAND
OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND MAY BE
HALF WAY ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNRISE. THE OTHER FEATURE AT THIS TIME
IS DECOUPLED EASTERN VALLEYS IN THE 30S IN SOME PLACES WHILE THE TOP
OF BLACK MTN IS ALSO LINGER IN THE 30S. IN FACT...THE TOP OF BLACK
MTN IS 33 WITH A DEWPOINT OF 25 ATTM.

WE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS AS THE
BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS IT WILL ALSO LIKELY
MEASURE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AS IT ROLLS ACROSS EAST KY
THROUGH MID MORNING. AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES
TEMPS IN THE DECOUPLED AREAS THROUGH REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. MIN TEMPS ALSO WILL BE REACHED IN SOME AREAS WITH
WETBULBING. CONFIDENCE IN THE THE DEGREE OF SKY COVER FROM MIDDAY
INTO TONIGHT IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE AS MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FROM
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE AT LEAST SOME CU OR STRATOCU LINGERING...BUT
AT PRESENT THERE IS A SHARP BACK EDGE. IF CLEARING DOES OCCUR...THE
MAX WILL BE AT LEAST A CAT HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND LOWS
TONIGHT WOULD ALSO BE LOWER. MAX T FOR TODAY SHOULD BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN ON SAT ON AVERAGE HOWEVER...AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL
DROP ABOUT 6 DEGREES C FROM SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW WOULD ARGUE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGERING INTO TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY MONDAY
AS DOES A WEAK WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THIS LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN MIN T FOR
TONIGHT AND THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...ATTM...THIS WARM FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO MOISTURE STARVED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING. CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD PROVIDE A SHARP DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S ONCE MORE. A STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MILD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING MAINLY RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
MAY BE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE SOME SNOW
MAY BE MORE LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SO HAVE GONE WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME
RAIN MAY LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STILL SOME QUESTIONS
REGARDING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD...AS MODELS
SUPPORT SOME MOISTURE HANGING ON IN EAST KENTUCKY AND POSSIBLY SOME
FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE. MODELS REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN...NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST
GOING FORWARD. AFTER A COOLER END TO THE WEEK...IT DOES APPEAR
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS MAY GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...WHICH AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

POST FRONTAL CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED QUICKLY IN WAKE OF FRONTAL
ZONE PASSAGE. AS A RESULT MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL AMEND AS
REQUIRED. EXPECT ONLY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT...LIFTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

ISSUED AT 735 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT EXITS. CIGS SHOULD THEN REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT AROUND 10KT
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AROUND 0Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...RAY







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 648 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ATTM OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO INTERPOLATE LATEST OBS WITH FORECAST VALUES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OVERALL TIMING OF INITIAL PRECIP LOOKS
CLOSE WITH PRECIP SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THEN
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG
THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. HAVE LEANED
HEAVILY TOWARDS HRRR FOR THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. MANY HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION MARKEDLY DROPPING IN COVERAGE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY DUE TO MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING CUT
OFF BY FEATURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION BY LATE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ALLOWS FOR LAKE
ENHANCED PRECIP TO BEGIN ANEW.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE REMAINED WELL ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW. 00Z SYNOPTIC MODELS CANNOT SEEM TO HANDLE THIS...AND
HAVE INITIALIZED TEMPS QUITE POORLY. EVEN HI-RES MODELS LIKE THE RAP
AND HRRR ARE ALSO STRUGGLING. HAVE RELIED ON GFSLAMP TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE TODAY...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE TOO SLOW IN BRINGING IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS
DAYTIME SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TO A HALF INCH OR LESS...PRIMARILY
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE USUAL FAVORED LOCATIONS. WHILE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL...MOST OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE WILL BE ABOVE THE MOISTURE. HAVE GONE WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOW ALONG INTERSTATE 80 AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WV/MD...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. WHILE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...THEY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE RIDGES MONDAY MORNING...WITH UP TO
ANOTHER HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE. AS FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY...SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
DRY...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO VARY BY TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME
AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A SECOND SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEMS AND THE AMOUNT OF PHASING THAT WILL OCCUR IS DEPICTED
DIFFERENTLY BY EVERY MODEL. SINCE 12Z MODEL RUNS WERE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THESE SYSTEMS...WILL ESSENTIALLY
LEAVE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST STATUS QUO UNTIL MODELS CAN COME
BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE JANUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL RUNS ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW
REASONABLE CONSENSUS AND GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE GENERAL
IDEA...BUT VARY WIDELY IN DETAILS. IN ANY CASE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS MEAN TROUGHING REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY...AND
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING RELATIVELY CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS A COLD
FRONT TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN
DECOUPLED FROM WINDS ALOFT...WITH 35-40KTS VIA MDCRS AT 2500FT.
FROPA TIMES LOOK TO BE AT THE FOLLOWING TIMES 13Z ZZV...15Z
PIT...16Z LBE. AFTER IT PASSES...ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX AND
EVENTUALLY TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS EAST OF THE AREA.


.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 655 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE INTO NW WI
SUPPORTED LITTLE MORE THAN SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN NE
MN AND NW WI. ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER NW MANITOBA.
AT THE SFC...A 995 MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY TO THE THE E
END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE S END OF JAMES
BAY THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO SRN MANITOBA. WITH NW FLOW...LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE AND CAA BRINGING IN ONLY MODERATELY COLD AIR (850 MB
TEMPS TO NEAR -11C) ONLY WEAK LES OR FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT.

WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...EXPECT ONLY SCT -SHSN INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR NW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHIT AFTERNOON
DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -14C ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MANITOBA SHRTWV MAY BOOST THE LES. THE HIGHER RES MODELS
SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL CONV INTO WRN UPPER MI FROM IWD TOWARD ONTONAGON
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN SHSN WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL WIND
BACKING TREND WITH INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
DROPPING TO AROUND 3K FT SHOULD ALLOW THE LES TO DIMINISH. THE
REMAINING SCT LIGHT SHSN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM IWD AND SHIFT INTO
N CNTRL UPPER MI. HOWEVER...ANY ACCCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AT
OR BELOW AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND PRODUCE PERIODS OF GENERALLY LIGHT
SNOW. BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS THERE MAY BE A FEW LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS
OR SNOW...BUT 850MB TEMPS DON/T REALLY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE MIDDLE TEENS BELOW ZERO.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL END UP AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS MOST DAYS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL.

STARTING OFF MONDAY MORNING...THE AREA WILL UNDER THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF A RIDGE FROM A HIGH NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS RIDGE WILL REALLY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS TONIGHT AND THEY
WILL ONLY BE AROUND 2-3KFT MONDAY MORNING. BUT WITH 925MB TEMPS
AROUND -15C AND MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WOULD
EXPECT LAKE CLOUDS TO BE PRESENT. BASED OFF THE SFC-925MB WINDS
(NORTHERLY BUT VEERING OVER THE WEST)...THINK THE CLOUDS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH WINDS DO
VEER THROUGH THE DAY...DON/T EXPECT MUCH CLEARING WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION...SO WILL FOCUS ON MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN BEING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. IN THE MORNING.

THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM
WILL BE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 18Z TUESDAY. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE BROAD AND GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...LARGELY TIED TO THE POTENTIAL PHASING OF TWO SHORTWAVES
EITHER OVER THE AREA OR EAST OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS
(00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF) PHASE THE WAVES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
AND TRACK MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF TRACK THE PRECIP ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVES PHASING DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA. 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES
APPEAR TO BE SPLIT ON THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WHICH LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BUT DID TREND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION WITH IT/S
GROWING NUMBER OF MEMBERS. THUS...FOCUSED THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER AND WILL KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY UNDER AN
INCH.

BEHIND THE LOW AND SHORTWAVES...WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND DRIES OUT THE MID LEVELS. STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WITH 900-850MB
TEMPS ONLY AROUND -10C THERE SHOULDN/T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE
HELP. ESPECIALLY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS FOCUSED IN THE NORTHERLY WIND AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WON/T SHOW MUCH MORE THAN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS.

ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SNOW OTHER THAN A QUICK DUSTING OR SOME FLURRIES. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...IT DOES APPEAR THAT COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE ONLY AROUND 4KFT.
THUS...WOULD EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. THE ONLY POSITIVE IS MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING AROUND
OR WITHIN THE DGZ...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO FLUFFIER SNOW BUT LIMIT
IMPACT. THIS LIGHT AND FLUFFY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THIS SERIES ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THUS...HAVE SPREAD ANOTHER PERIOD
OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE COULD PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AT CMX THIS MORNING AND AT IWD AND SAW LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH. IWD HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A PERIOD OF IFR VSBY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW MVFR
AT CMX AND SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS TODAY IN THE TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND A LOW
OVER NRN ONTARIO...WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30 KNOTS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 511 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE INTO NW WI
SUPPORTED LITTLE MORE THAN SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN NE
MN AND NW WI. ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER NW MANITOBA.
AT THE SFC...A 995 MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY TO THE THE E
END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE S END OF JAMES
BAY THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO SRN MANITOBA. WITH NW FLOW...LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE AND CAA BRINGING IN ONLY MODERATELY COLD AIR (850 MB
TEMPS TO NEAR -11C) ONLY WEAK LES OR FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT.

WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...EXPECT ONLY SCT -SHSN INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR NW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHIT AFTERNOON
DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -14C ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MANITOBA SHRTWV MAY BOOST THE LES. THE HIGHER RES MODELS
SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL CONV INTO WRN UPPER MI FROM IWD TOWARD ONTONAGON
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN SHSN WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL WIND
BACKING TREND WITH INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
DROPPING TO AROUND 3K FT SHOULD ALLOW THE LES TO DIMINISH. THE
REMAINING SCT LIGHT SHSN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM IWD AND SHIFT INTO
N CNTRL UPPER MI. HOWEVER...ANY ACCCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AT
OR BELOW AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND PRODUCE PERIODS OF GENERALLY LIGHT
SNOW. BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS THERE MAY BE A FEW LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS
OR SNOW...BUT 850MB TEMPS DON/T REALLY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE MIDDLE TEENS BELOW ZERO.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL END UP AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS MOST DAYS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL.

STARTING OFF MONDAY MORNING...THE AREA WILL UNDER THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF A RIDGE FROM A HIGH NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS RIDGE WILL REALLY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS TONIGHT AND THEY
WILL ONLY BE AROUND 2-3KFT MONDAY MORNING. BUT WITH 925MB TEMPS
AROUND -15C AND MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WOULD
EXPECT LAKE CLOUDS TO BE PRESENT. BASED OFF THE SFC-925MB WINDS
(NORTHERLY BUT VEERING OVER THE WEST)...THINK THE CLOUDS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH WINDS DO
VEER THROUGH THE DAY...DON/T EXPECT MUCH CLEARING WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION...SO WILL FOCUS ON MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN BEING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. IN THE MORNING.

THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM
WILL BE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 18Z TUESDAY. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE BROAD AND GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...LARGELY TIED TO THE POTENTIAL PHASING OF TWO SHORTWAVES
EITHER OVER THE AREA OR EAST OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS
(00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF) PHASE THE WAVES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
AND TRACK MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF TRACK THE PRECIP ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVES PHASING DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA. 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES
APPEAR TO BE SPLIT ON THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WHICH LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BUT DID TREND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION WITH IT/S
GROWING NUMBER OF MEMBERS. THUS...FOCUSED THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER AND WILL KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY UNDER AN
INCH.

BEHIND THE LOW AND SHORTWAVES...WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND DRIES OUT THE MID LEVELS. STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WITH 900-850MB
TEMPS ONLY AROUND -10C THERE SHOULDN/T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE
HELP. ESPECIALLY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS FOCUSED IN THE NORTHERLY WIND AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WON/T SHOW MUCH MORE THAN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS.

ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SNOW OTHER THAN A QUICK DUSTING OR SOME FLURRIES. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...IT DOES APPEAR THAT COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE ONLY AROUND 4KFT.
THUS...WOULD EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. THE ONLY POSITIVE IS MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING AROUND
OR WITHIN THE DGZ...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO FLUFFIER SNOW BUT LIMIT
IMPACT. THIS LIGHT AND FLUFFY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THIS SERIES ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THUS...HAVE SPREAD ANOTHER PERIOD
OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE COULD PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

A MOIST...CYC AND GUSTY UPSLOPE NW FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF LINGERING
MSTR WL BRING PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS TO CMX EARLY THIS MRNG AND
AT LEAST OCNL IFR WX TO IWD EVEN THOUGH THE AIRMASS IS ONLY
MARGINALLY COLD FOR LES. ALTHOUGH SOME -SHSN MAY IMPACT SAW...
DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE FLOW AT THIS LOCATION WL RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS THERE. WITH SOME DRYING ALOFT LATER ON...CONDITIONS WL
TEND TO IMPROVE TOWARD 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN...WHEN A COLD FNT WL SWING ACRS UPR MI. WITH A WSHFT TO AN
UPSLOPE N DIRECTION BEHIND THE FNT...IWD AND PERHAPS SAW WL SEE AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. BUT RATHER STEADY DRYING
DURING THE EVNG WL TEND TO DIMINISH THE SHSN AND BRING A RETURN TO
MVFR WX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS TODAY IN THE TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND A LOW
OVER NRN ONTARIO...WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30 KNOTS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 938 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

A BAND OF SNOW HAS MOVED OVER THE ARROWHEAD THANKS TO A VORT MAX
CROSSING THROUGH. COOLING CLOUD TOPS NOTED ON SATELLITE SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME MODERATE BANDS AS WELL WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 833 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING SOME UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTHERN MN. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. REST OF THE FORECAST IN
THE BALLPARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

SCATTED BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH SHORE LAKE
EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY...THEN SOME CLEARING LATE TODAY BEFORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ON MONDAY. TEMPS
MILD...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH A FAIRLY TYPICAL RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN
OVER THE LOWER 48...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN US/CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL CHANGE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVE EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD. WITH THE COMPLEXITY OF THIS UPCOMING PATTERN
CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW FOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY DUE TO
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AND THE DIFFERENCES JUST A SMALL SHIFT IN A
PATTERN CAN MEAN TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LIKE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TODAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING AND SOUTH SHORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IN BOTH LOCATIONS...WITH A
COATING TO A FEW QUICK TENTHS OF AN INCH IN NORTHERN MN AND UP TO AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND
COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE ARE FAIRLY STEEP AT LOW LEVELS...AND
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
FAIRLY INTENSE /POSSIBLY DROPPING VISIBILITY TO A MILE AT
TIMES/...BUT THEIR SHORT DURATION WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES MILD...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA...SO IN MOST
PLACES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING
HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY
SEE THE SUN BREAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDING MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL SNOW SHOWERS WILL
END BY THE EARLY EVENING AND THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO MID-TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. CURRENT
FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO MILD IF CLOUD COVER IS LESS THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY...A VERY COMPLEX PATTERN AT MID-LEVELS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AS H5 HEIGHTS FALL AND A LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER. CURRENT SPREAD OF
MODEL GUIDANCE IS LARGER THAN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME RANGE...AND THUS
HAVE BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR HOW THIS STORM WILL EVOLVE. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA QUICKLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST...REACHING NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY MID/LATE MORNING. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE FROM BEMIDJI EAST ALONG THE HIGHWAY TWO
CORRIDOR AND INTO MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PLACES THE BEST CORRIDOR FOR SNOWFALL
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION. WENT WITH A CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH 1-3 INCHES...BUT SEE POTENTIAL
FOR A SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
RELATIVELY MILD...UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXCEPT FOR THE ARROWHEAD
REGION WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

PERSISTENT NW FLOW POSITIONED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FOR
A WAVE TRAIN OF MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EACH VORT MAX/CLIPPER
WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND/OR DRIZZLE...KEEPING
SMALL POPS IN NEARLY EVERY PERIOD OUT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH...TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE FAST MOVING WAVES CAN BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED H85
TROUGH AND SFC LOW IS ON TRACK TO BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
AN INCH OR TWO FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AROUND 4-6 KFT WITH POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND FLURRIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KBRD
WHERE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WITH
PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KHYR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SKIES MAY SCATTER OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS
OVER MINNESOTA...BEFORE WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST/EAST AND
LOW CLOUDS MAKE A RETURN LATE IN THE NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  16  28  21 /  20  40  60  60
INL  28   8  27  15 /  10  20  40  30
BRD  31  19  33  22 /   0  30  40  40
HYR  32  16  29  20 /  10  20  60  60
ASX  32  15  27  20 /  30  20  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 833 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 833 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING SOME UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTHERN MN. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. REST OF THE FORECAST IN
THE BALLPARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

SCATTED BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH SHORE LAKE
EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY...THEN SOME CLEARING LATE TODAY BEFORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ON MONDAY. TEMPS
MILD...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH A FAIRLY TYPICAL RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN
OVER THE LOWER 48...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN US/CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL CHANGE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVE EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD. WITH THE COMPLEXITY OF THIS UPCOMING PATTERN
CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW FOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY DUE TO
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AND THE DIFFERENCES JUST A SMALL SHIFT IN A
PATTERN CAN MEAN TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LIKE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TODAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING AND SOUTH SHORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IN BOTH LOCATIONS...WITH A
COATING TO A FEW QUICK TENTHS OF AN INCH IN NORTHERN MN AND UP TO AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND
COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE ARE FAIRLY STEEP AT LOW LEVELS...AND
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
FAIRLY INTENSE /POSSIBLY DROPPING VISIBILITY TO A MILE AT
TIMES/...BUT THEIR SHORT DURATION WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES MILD...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA...SO IN MOST
PLACES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING
HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY
SEE THE SUN BREAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDING MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL SNOW SHOWERS WILL
END BY THE EARLY EVENING AND THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO MID-TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. CURRENT
FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO MILD IF CLOUD COVER IS LESS THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY...A VERY COMPLEX PATTERN AT MID-LEVELS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AS H5 HEIGHTS FALL AND A LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER. CURRENT SPREAD OF
MODEL GUIDANCE IS LARGER THAN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME RANGE...AND THUS
HAVE BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR HOW THIS STORM WILL EVOLVE. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA QUICKLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST...REACHING NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY MID/LATE MORNING. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE FROM BEMIDJI EAST ALONG THE HIGHWAY TWO
CORRIDOR AND INTO MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PLACES THE BEST CORRIDOR FOR SNOWFALL
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION. WENT WITH A CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH 1-3 INCHES...BUT SEE POTENTIAL
FOR A SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
RELATIVELY MILD...UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXCEPT FOR THE ARROWHEAD
REGION WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

PERSISTENT NW FLOW POSITIONED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FOR
A WAVE TRAIN OF MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EACH VORT MAX/CLIPPER
WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND/OR DRIZZLE...KEEPING
SMALL POPS IN NEARLY EVERY PERIOD OUT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH...TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE FAST MOVING WAVES CAN BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED H85
TROUGH AND SFC LOW IS ON TRACK TO BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
AN INCH OR TWO FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AROUND 4-6 KFT WITH POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND FLURRIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KBRD
WHERE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WITH
PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KHYR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SKIES MAY SCATTER OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS
OVER MINNESOTA...BEFORE WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST/EAST AND
LOW CLOUDS MAKE A RETURN LATE IN THE NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  16  28  21 /  20  40  60  60
INL  28   8  27  15 /  10  20  40  30
BRD  31  19  33  22 /   0  30  40  40
HYR  32  16  29  20 /  10  20  60  60
ASX  32  15  27  20 /  30  20  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 433 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 225 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2015

Main forecast issue today is how warm to go with temps. The weak
cold front has pushed east of the area and the core of coolest air
is already centered east of the CWA. Surface winds remain westerly
at this time and warm advection aloft has begun. All signals
currently point to raising the high temperatures. Heights aloft
will be on the rise in the wake of the departing upper trof, low
level WAA will be occuring, surface winds will have a largely
westerly component while backing slightly this afternoon, and
temps at this early morning hour are not very cold. The only
clouds should be a swath of high clouds passing west to east. Sans
the HRRR and RAP, the 2m model temps and MOS guidance has exhibited
a pretty good cool bias the last few days. The HRRR and RAP have
peformed rather well and the new forecast for today nudges highs
closer to them with another day of well above average temperatures.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2015

The models depict a weak surface low migrating east-southeastward
from near Kansas City into southern Illinois tonight along a wind
shift boundary, and then lift this boundary to the east of the CWA
during the day on Monday. There has been some type of this depiction
the last few days in the models, however the placement now is further
south and leaves into question the nature of the surface wind field
on Monday and strength of warm advection. I have lowered temps
slightly as a result, but taking into account the cool bias, not
as much as MOS and they are still above average.

Another northwest flow shortwave will amplify as it moves through
the area Tuesday into Tuesday Night. There is initially a westerly
wind shift on Monday night in response, with increasing baroclinicity
and cold advection on Tuesday and Tuesday night as the heights
aloft really begin to fall. A greater number of the models are now
generating precipitation across southern MO and southern IL on
Tuesday in response to mid level convergence/frontogenesis, weak
large scale ascent, and divergence associated with the ULJ. I have
added some slight chance pops as a result, but these pops may need
to be ramped up should the current model trends persist.

Cooler temperatures, more seasonable for the later part of January,
will prevail during the later part of the week and into the
weekend however confidence in the degree of cooling is low. The
large scale pattern will once again become more amplified with an
upper ridge from the East Pacific into western North America and a
downstream longwave trof dominating a good portion of the Conus
which favors overall cooler weather. However, there is considerable
variability in the deterministic models and GEFS ensemble members
with the shortwaves moving through the longwave leading to lower
than normal predicatability.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 419 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2015

Just some high level clouds expected today and tonight. W-swly
surface winds will become light this evening as a weak area of low
pressure moves eastward into central MO.

Specifics for KSTL: Just some high level clouds this forecast
period. A w-swly surface wind will become light this evening.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

 930 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PUSH OF WARM AIR WILL BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK IN TONIGHT
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TODAY
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 900 AM...THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. THIS SHOULD ONLY LAST A
COUPLE HOURS...SINCE IT IS MAINLY DUE TO FUNNELING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. ELSEWHERE...WINDS ALOFT HAVE DIMINISHED...WITH
SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS EXCEPTED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED MARKEDLY WITH THE FRONT...FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 40S TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH THE WIND SHIFT. FOR
WESTERN AREAS...THE HIGH FOR THE DAY HAS ALREADY BEEN
REACHED...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT A QUICK 5
DEGREE DROP IN DOWNSLOPE REGIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS FINALLY MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT AND BRING LIGHT
SHOWERS. THE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN...WITH SOME WET SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING
IN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

IN TERMS OF MODEL GUIDANCE...THE HRRR WAS PREFERRED DUE TO ITS
ABILITY TO CAPTURE THE ABRUPT TEMPERATURE CHANGES WITH THE
FRONT. IT ALSO HANDLES SHOWERS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO A CONSENSUS OF
THE NAM/RGEM/SREF...WHICH MATCHES UP WITH RADAR TRENDS WELL.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
PROVIDE INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE FORM OF DPVA AHEAD OF A
STRONG EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
A DEVELOPING COUPLED JET STRUCTURE ALOFT AS THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS BEGIN TO PHASE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS PHASING
OF STREAMS WILL DIRECT THE BULK OF STRONGER ASCENT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION
OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIP MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL REACH WESTERN NY AROUND MID TO LATE
MORNING...THEN MOVE TO THE GENESEE VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY REACHING CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONGOING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
FORCING LOWER AMOUNTS ON THE LAKE PLAINS.

THERE SHOULD BE A SEVERAL HOUR DRY GAP BETWEEN THE INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION AND DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...WHICH WILL ARRIVE IN
WESTERN NY BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL COOL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ENOUGH
TO CHANGE ANY REMAINING PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH SOME
MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF THE OPEN PATCH OF WATER ON LAKE ERIE AND
MORE IMPORTANTLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS MAY PRODUCE 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS
TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH UPSLOPE ALSO
INCREASING ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE MINIMAL. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS ONLY MODEST...SO EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MID 20S IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND ONLY AROUND 30 TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK ON MONDAY...AS A
COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MAINE. THE WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DEEPENING COLD AIR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE LAKE
SNOWS. THE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL WITH LAKE
TO 850MB TEMPS BARELY FAVORABLE...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD PROVE ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL SETTLE TO THE MID 20S.

A NARROW RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE STALLS ACROSS THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
AND WILL KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

A CLIPPER WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AS THE STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING ACROSS PA...BUT SOME
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A LARGE
SCALE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN OPENS UP THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TO COLD AIR INTRUSIONS WITH A GENERAL
LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED...THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR A SHORTWAVE TO BRING SOME GENERAL
LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 14Z...A COLD FRONT HAD JUST REACHED BUF/IAG AND WILL CONTINUE
ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT WILL ALSO SPREAD
FROM W-E...BUT THEY WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND ONLY LAST A
COUPLE HOURS. ERI/DKK BOTH BRIEFLY DROPPED TO IFR IN CIGS...SO
THIS MAY HAPPEN BRIEFLY AT BUF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK OF AT LEAST A FEW HOURS BETWEEN THE INITIAL
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WHICH WILL ARRIVE
IN WESTERN NY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL
ALLOW THIS TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING. EXPECT AREAS OF
MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...WITH
IFR VSBY IN SOMEWHAT STEADIER LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR THIS MORNING UNTIL THE FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. FROM THAT POINT THEY WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH IFR BECOMING LIKELY
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR/IFR IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT ACROSS
EASTER LAKE ONTARIO. THIS ALLOWED THE FIRST ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES TO BE DROPPED ON THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THERE WILL BE BRIEFLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE...SO
OPTED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE A 3 TO 6
HOUR LULL THIS AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY TODAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MORE MARGINAL ON LAKE
ERIE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD STILL INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/APFFEL







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 850 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PASSES TODAY. UPPER DISTURBANCES MID TO LATE WEEK IN AN
UNSETTLED AND COOLING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TIMING OF HIGHER POPS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA. A SECOND BATCH OF PCPN FOLLOWS ENTERING SOUTHEAST OH BY
1330Z...BUT PCPN IS MORE ISOLATED SO KEPT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS
SECOND FEATURE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE LESS THAN AN HOUR AWAY FROM THE FAR WESTERN ZONES IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. LINE HAS EXHIBITED SOME
WIND GUSTS AS IT PASSES...SO A 30-35MPH BRIEF GUST CAN BE EXPECTED
AS THE LINE MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
USING THE HRRR THIS MORNING FOR THE TIMING OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS
SLATED TO ENTER THE SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
AREA BY 12Z. FORCING WILL PEAK OUT RIGHT AROUND THIS TIME AND EXPECT
IT GO FRONTOLYTIC AS IT CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
STILL CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN IMPRESSED WITH THE RATE OF THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION OFF THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY WHEN USING THIS TO
DETERMINE THE TRANSITION TIME FROM RAIN TO SNOW. IN THE END...THIS
WILL NOT BE A QUICK TRANSITION...EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ONLY
GET THE -8C CONTOUR INTO OUR CWA AFTER 03Z MONDAY.

ONCE AGAIN...WE ARE LEFT WITH YET ANOTHER IMPERFECT UPSLOPE SCENARIO
FOR TONIGHT AS ALREADY MENTIONED IN TERMS OF THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
LOW LEVEL STREAMLINES ARE NEARLY WESTERLY WITHOUT A GREAT MOISTURE
FEED FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THAT BEING SAID...THINK THE BEST TIME FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE FROM AROUND 03Z TO 09Z
TONIGHT. THINK A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES IS THE WAY TO GO FOR THIS EVENT
WITH AN ISOLATED 3 INCH TOTAL FOR THE EXPOSED WESTERLY RIDGES.

FOR THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...HAVE SOME REASONABLY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF A DIURNAL VERSUS NON DIURNAL TREND. SOME
LOCATIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACTUALLY WERE ABLE TO
RADIATE...LIKE I16/PINEVILLE AND OTHER SCATTERED LOCATIONS...WHILE
HIGHER POINTS EXPOSED TO WIND HAVE STAYED IN THE 40S. THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE AT THEIR MAX TEMP FOR THE DAY AS THE SUN RISES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO. NO CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE
NUMBERS TO HELP OUT AND WILL FAVOR THE MET FOR NOW WHICH SUPPORTS
THE DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A VERY BUSY AND DIFFICULT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN
WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
JUICY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS
IS THEREFORE A RATHER NUISANCE BUT UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A COOLING
TREND FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH DIFFICULTY
TO FOLLOW AND TIME THESE DISTURBANCES. MODELS HAVE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT DROPPING ACROSS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
REINFORCING COOL SHOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE IS
MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE THIS MAIN
DISTURBANCE...AND THEREFORE TRACK/TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SURFACE LOW RANGE FROM
THE SLOWEST AND MOST WELL DEVELOPED CMC SOLUTION THAT TRACKS THE LOW
ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT...TO THE FASTEST
EURO WITH A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE CMC BUT LESS DEVELOPED LOW...TO THE
FARTHEST NORTH AND WEAKEST SOLUTION OF THE NAM THAT TRACKS THE LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS A TRUE MIDDLE GROUND AND
A GOOD COMPROMISE...TAKING A WEAKER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REDEVELOPING IT EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW.

THIS GFS ACCEPTED SOLUTION THEN HAS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW...FOLLOWED BY THE LOW CUTTING ACROSS
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT.

MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK HOGGING
THINGS WELL TO THE SOUTH. BUT FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FROM THE WARM FRONT
AND FOLLOWING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT...AND MOIST COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED AND COOLING TREND FOR MID WEEK.

SPECIFICALLY...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING WITH THE WARM
FRONT TUESDAY WITH MILD AIR...THEN A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT TRENDING TOWARD A WINTRY MIX LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AND FINALLY SOME LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE 30S
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE...A CLIPPER MOVES IN MID WEEK...SPREADING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA. AFTER THAT...MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE THAT THERE IS NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT TO NOTE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE AT PKB/HTS AROUND THE 12Z MARK WITH THE
NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. LINE HAS A HISTORY OF 25-20KT GUSTS...SO HAVE
ADDED THAT TO THE TAFS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. ALSO CHANGED WAS THE
TIMING BY AN HOUR OR TWO AND MOVED IT UP...ALONG WITH THE
ELIMINATION OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN. LINE IS NOT VERY INTENSE
AND SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE LOWLAND TERMINALS THIS
MORNING.

KEEP CEILINGS MVFR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST PAVES THE WAY FOR LIGHT
UPSLOPE SNOW TONIGHT AND HAVE THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CKB/EKN/BKW
TAFS. IFR EXPECTED IN SNOW AT TIMES AND USE THIS IN PREVAILING
CONDITIONS. LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AT PKB AND CRW BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR ANY PREVAILING RESTRICTIONS AT THESE
LOCATIONS. THIS COULD CHANGE WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: BRIEF IFR IN THE RAIN THIS MORNING CANNOT BE
FULLY DISCOUNTED...EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS. MAY
NEED TO ADD RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW AFTER 00Z MONDAY FOR CRW
AND PKB.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...26








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 533 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PASSES TODAY. UPPER DISTURBANCES MID TO LATE WEEK IN AN
UNSETTLED AND COOLING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE LESS THAN AN HOUR AWAY FROM THE FAR WESTERN ZONES IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. LINE HAS EXHIBITED SOME
WIND GUSTS AS IT PASSES...SO A 30-35MPH BRIEF GUST CAN BE EXPECTED
AS THE LINE MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
USING THE HRRR THIS MORNING FOR THE TIMING OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS
SLATED TO ENTER THE SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
AREA BY 12Z. FORCING WILL PEAK OUT RIGHT AROUND THIS TIME AND EXPECT
IT GO FRONTOLYTIC AS IT CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
STILL CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN IMPRESSED WITH THE RATE OF THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION OFF THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY WHEN USING THIS TO
DETERMINE THE TRANSITION TIME FROM RAIN TO SNOW. IN THE END...THIS
WILL NOT BE A QUICK TRANSITION...EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ONLY
GET THE -8C CONTOUR INTO OUR CWA AFTER 03Z MONDAY.

ONCE AGAIN...WE ARE LEFT WITH YET ANOTHER IMPERFECT UPSLOPE SCENARIO
FOR TONIGHT AS ALREADY MENTIONED IN TERMS OF THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
LOW LEVEL STREAMLINES ARE NEARLY WESTERLY WITHOUT A GREAT MOISTURE
FEED FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THAT BEING SAID...THINK THE BEST TIME FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE FROM AROUND 03Z TO 09Z
TONIGHT. THINK A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES IS THE WAY TO GO FOR THIS EVENT
WITH AN ISOLATED 3 INCH TOTAL FOR THE EXPOSED WESTERLY RIDGES.

FOR THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...HAVE SOME REASONABLY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF A DIURNAL VERSUS NON DIURNAL TREND. SOME
LOCATIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACTUALLY WERE ABLE TO
RADIATE...LIKE I16/PINEVILLE AND OTHER SCATTERED LOCATIONS...WHILE
HIGHER POINTS EXPOSED TO WIND HAVE STAYED IN THE 40S. THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE AT THEIR MAX TEMP FOR THE DAY AS THE SUN RISES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO. NO CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE
NUMBERS TO HELP OUT AND WILL FAVOR THE MET FOR NOW WHICH SUPPORTS
THE DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A VERY BUSY AND DIFFICULT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN
WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
JUICY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS
IS THEREFORE A RATHER NUISANCE BUT UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A COOLING
TREND FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH DIFFICULTY
TO FOLLOW AND TIME THESE DISTURBANCES. MODELS HAVE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT DROPPING ACROSS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
REINFORCING COOL SHOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE IS
MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE THIS MAIN
DISTURBANCE...AND THEREFORE TRACK/TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SURFACE LOW RANGE FROM
THE SLOWEST AND MOST WELL DEVELOPED CMC SOLUTION THAT TRACKS THE LOW
ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT...TO THE FASTEST
EURO WITH A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE CMC BUT LESS DEVELOPED LOW...TO THE
FARTHEST NORTH AND WEAKEST SOLUTION OF THE NAM THAT TRACKS THE LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS A TRUE MIDDLE GROUND AND
A GOOD COMPROMISE...TAKING A WEAKER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REDEVELOPING IT EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW.

THIS GFS ACCEPTED SOLUTION THEN HAS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW...FOLLOWED BY THE LOW CUTTING ACROSS
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT.

MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK HOGGING
THINGS WELL TO THE SOUTH. BUT FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FROM THE WARM FRONT
AND FOLLOWING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT...AND MOIST COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED AND COOLING TREND FOR MID WEEK.

SPECIFICALLY...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING WITH THE WARM
FRONT TUESDAY WITH MILD AIR...THEN A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT TRENDING TOWARD A WINTRY MIX LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AND FINALLY SOME LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE 30S
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE...A CLIPPER MOVES IN MID WEEK...SPREADING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA. AFTER THAT...MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE THAT THERE IS NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT TO NOTE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE AT PKB/HTS AROUND THE 12Z MARK WITH THE
NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. LINE HAS A HISTORY OF 25-20KT GUSTS...SO HAVE
ADDED THAT TO THE TAFS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. ALSO CHANGED WAS THE
TIMING BY AN HOUR OR TWO AND MOVED IT UP...ALONG WITH THE
ELIMINATION OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN. LINE IS NOT VERY INTENSE
AND SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE LOWLAND TERMINALS THIS
MORNING.

KEEP CEILINGS MVFR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST PAVES THE WAY FOR LIGHT
UPSLOPE SNOW TONIGHT AND HAVE THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CKB/EKN/BKW
TAFS. IFR EXPECTED IN SNOW AT TIMES AND USE THIS IN PREVAILING
CONDITIONS. LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AT PKB AND CRW BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR ANY PREVAILING RESTRICTIONS AT THESE
LOCATIONS. THIS COULD CHANGE WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: BRIEF IFR IN THE RAIN THIS MORNING CANNOT BE
FULLY DISCOUNTED...EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS. MAY
NEED TO ADD RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW AFTER 00Z MONDAY FOR CRW
AND PKB.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...26









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 1014 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS WILL MERGE
WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY...AND BY TONIGHT A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL COVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY. A CLIPPER
WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EST SUNDAY...

FOR THE MOST PART THINGS ARE UNFOLDING ON SCHEDULE. ONE LAST SURGE
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE PIEDMONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IS AFFECTING AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS MAINLY TO REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS OUT EAST SINCE WESTERN AREAS APPEARED TO BE
ON TARGET. MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE ON TARGET. TEMPS ACROSS THE
EAST WILL GET A CHANCE TO RECOVER AS PCPN PULLS OUT BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WEST WILL STRUGGLE A BIT UNDER CLOUDS
AND DEVELOPING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

WILL BE WATCHING DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY WINDS VERY CLOSELY THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND SLIDES NORTH
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. IF DEVELOPING
WINDS OFFER A LOT OF SUPPORT TO THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WIND ADVISORY TO LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH.

PREVIOUS AFD...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH
INDIANA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN TO
ARKANSAS. THE SHOWERS WERE ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONT. LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE LINED UP WELL WITH BOTH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND HAD
REASONABLE TIMING AND PLACEMENT FOR TODAY. 00Z LOCAL WRF WAS GOOD
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS SLOW.
WILL USE LATEST RADAR TRENDS FOR FINAL PLACEMENT OF RAIN THIS
MORNING.

UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
21Z/5PM. ONCE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.

MODELS FORECAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. WIND SPEEDS PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH FOR GOOD UPSLOPE
ALTHOUGH WIND DIRECTION IS NOT IDEAL. STILL ENOUGH LIFT EXPECTED TO
HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED AREAS LATE TONIGHT. WILL BE
REMOVING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FOR THIS
EVENING.

NAM/GFS SHOWED CONCENTRATION OF HIGHEST 850 MB WINDS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE MIGRATING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 00Z/7PM TO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EST SUNDAY...

DEEPENING LOW OVER MAIN WILL KEEP SOME ENHANCED WINDS AROUND MONDAY
MORNING BUT BY MID MORNING ALL WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 40 MPH IN
GUSTS...SO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION OF 10 AM LOOKS REASONABLE. EXPECT
MOISTURE EROSION FAIRLY QUICK WITH FLOW TURNING MORE TO THE WEST AS
WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER WRN GREENBRIER
TO FLATTOP WV WILL BE GOING AWAY BY MID MORNING AS WELL. 8H TEMPS
WARM BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SE WV MTNS...TO MID TO UPPER 40S NEW RIVER VALLEY AND NC MTNS...TO
50-55 EAST.

FLOW AT THE SFC WEAKENS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE WAA
CONTINUES ALOFT. WILL SEE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A CLIPPER TUESDAY. LOWS ARE GOING TO STAY AT
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S...WARMING TO THE MID 40S-AROUND 50 MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 50S
EAST TUESDAY.

THE 00Z GFS/ECM SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH RESPECT TO THE CLIPPER TUE
NIGHT-WED...BUT LOCATION IS DIFFERENT. THE ECM ADVANCES THE LOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO NC TUE NIGHT THEN OVER THE VA
TIDEWATER WED AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH FROM OH/PA TUE
NIGHT SOUTHEAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY WED AFTERNOON. STILL MODELS
SHOWING A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN AND WRN
CWA GOING INTO WED MORNING. QUESTION IS PTYPE/THERMAL PROFILE. WITH
A BLEND WITH THE TWO MODELS EXPECT A RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWER
EVENT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME BEFORE THE NW FLOW WORKS IN DRIER
AIR EAST OF THE MTNS BY WED NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...AMOUNTS QUITE LOW
SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW...THOUGH IF A FURTHER SOUTH PATH
OCCURS...THERE COULD BE SOME 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND MTNS OF SE WV. STILL SUB ADVISORY LEVELS.

KEPT WEDNESDAY TEMP FORECAST THE SAME AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S IN
THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

BY WED NIGHT THINK WILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THOUGH UPSLOPE WEAKENS...BUT CORE OF 8H THERMAL TROUGH
STICKS AROUND WEST OF THE MTNS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH LOWER
30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SOUTH OF LYH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST SATURDAY...

WINDS BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS
PORTRAYS THIS DISTURBANCE AS A CLIPPER MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECM HAS A SIMILAR PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY BUT IS LESS ON AMOUNTS WITH PARENT LOW TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. GFS POPS ARE 40-60 WHILE THE ECM IS AT
ZERO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO THE SAME TIME FRAME
BOTH MODELS...AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER...WERE PHASING THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. NOW...NO PHASING IS OCCURRING AND THEY HAVE
A DISTURBANCE/CLIPPER TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN LINE WITH CONFIDENCE LEVEL...LOW.

IF THIS DISTURBANCE DOES DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WE DID NOT STRAY TO FAR
FROM GUIDANCE OR CLIMATOLOGY FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EST SUNDAY...

WESTERN EDGE OF RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS WAS ABOUT 10SM EAST OF KDAN
AT 630AM. EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY
MOVE AWAY FROM KDAN AND KLYH SO CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR SOONER
THAN 15Z/10AM.

LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST OHIO TO EASTERN
TENNESSEE. HRRR AND BUFKIT DATA WERE USED FOR THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR WITH THE SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. DO NOT
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO REACH KLYH OR KDAN BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE.
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AND WILL BE IN  THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WENT WITH LOWER CEILINGS THAN SUGGESTED
BY THE MODELS AT KLWB AND KBLF. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 20 TO 35
KNOTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS MONDAY...WITH THE REMAINING UPSLOPE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SLOWLY DISSIPATING AND BY MID AFTERNOON
MONDAY ALL TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD BE VFR. A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE
FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO SUBSEQUENT
FRONTAL PASSAGES AS WELL AS UPSLOPE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 651 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS WILL MERGE
WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY...AND BY TONIGHT A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL COVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY. A CLIPPER
WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...

RADAR SHOWED RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN FROM COASTAL GEORGIA TO
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH 12Z/7AM. WILL ADD CHANCE OF RAIN IN FOR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL
REMAIN EAST OF US-29. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 30S WITH
THE CLOUD COVER SPREADING NORTH THIS MORNING. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WILL ALSO BRING DEW POINTS UP INTO THE
LOWER 30S. THIS WILL ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR ANY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH
INDIANA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN TO
ARKANSAS. THE SHOWERS WERE ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONT. LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE LINED UP WELL WITH BOTH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND HAD
REASONABLE TIMING AND PLACEMENT FOR TODAY. 00Z LOCAL WRF WAS GOOD
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS SLOW.
WILL USE LATEST RADAR TRENDS FOR FINAL PLACEMENT OF RAIN THIS
MORNING.

UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
21Z/5PM. ONCE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.

MODELS FORECAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. WIND SPEEDS PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH FOR GOOD UPSLOPE
ALTHOUGH WIND DIRECTION IS NOT IDEAL. STILL ENOUGH LIFT EXPECTED TO
HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED AREAS LATE TONIGHT. WILL BE
REMOVING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FOR THIS
EVENING.

NAM/GFS SHOWED CONCENTRATION OF HIGHEST 850 MB WINDS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE MIGRATING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 00Z/7PM TO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EST SUNDAY...

DEEPENING LOW OVER MAIN WILL KEEP SOME ENHANCED WINDS AROUND MONDAY
MORNING BUT BY MID MORNING ALL WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 40 MPH IN
GUSTS...SO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION OF 10 AM LOOKS REASONABLE. EXPECT
MOISTURE EROSION FAIRLY QUICK WITH FLOW TURNING MORE TO THE WEST AS
WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER WRN GREENBRIER
TO FLATTOP WV WILL BE GOING AWAY BY MID MORNING AS WELL. 8H TEMPS
WARM BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SE WV MTNS...TO MID TO UPPER 40S NEW RIVER VALLEY AND NC MTNS...TO
50-55 EAST.

FLOW AT THE SFC WEAKENS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE WAA
CONTINUES ALOFT. WILL SEE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A CLIPPER TUESDAY. LOWS ARE GOING TO STAY AT
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S...WARMING TO THE MID 40S-AROUND 50 MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 50S
EAST TUESDAY.

THE 00Z GFS/ECM SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH RESPECT TO THE CLIPPER TUE
NIGHT-WED...BUT LOCATION IS DIFFERENT. THE ECM ADVANCES THE LOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO NC TUE NIGHT THEN OVER THE VA
TIDEWATER WED AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH FROM OH/PA TUE
NIGHT SOUTHEAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY WED AFTERNOON. STILL MODELS
SHOWING A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN AND WRN
CWA GOING INTO WED MORNING. QUESTION IS PTYPE/THERMAL PROFILE. WITH
A BLEND WITH THE TWO MODELS EXPECT A RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWER
EVENT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME BEFORE THE NW FLOW WORKS IN DRIER
AIR EAST OF THE MTNS BY WED NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...AMOUNTS QUITE LOW
SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW...THOUGH IF A FURTHER SOUTH PATH
OCCURS...THERE COULD BE SOME 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND MTNS OF SE WV. STILL SUB ADVISORY LEVELS.

KEPT WEDNESDAY TEMP FORECAST THE SAME AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S IN
THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

BY WED NIGHT THINK WILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THOUGH UPSLOPE WEAKENS...BUT CORE OF 8H THERMAL TROUGH
STICKS AROUND WEST OF THE MTNS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH LOWER
30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SOUTH OF LYH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST SATURDAY...

WINDS BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS
PORTRAYS THIS DISTURBANCE AS A CLIPPER MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECM HAS A SIMILAR PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY BUT IS LESS ON AMOUNTS WITH PARENT LOW TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. GFS POPS ARE 40-60 WHILE THE ECM IS AT
ZERO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO THE SAME TIME FRAME
BOTH MODELS...AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER...WERE PHASING THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. NOW...NO PHASING IS OCCURRING AND THEY HAVE
A DISTURBANCE/CLIPPER TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN LINE WITH CONFIDENCE LEVEL...LOW.

IF THIS DISTURBANCE DOES DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WE DID NOT STRAY TO FAR
FROM GUIDANCE OR CLIMATOLOGY FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EST SUNDAY...

WESTERN EDGE OF RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS WAS ABOUT 10SM EAST OF KDAN
AT 630AM. EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY
MOVE AWAY FROM KDAN AND KLYH SO CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR SOONER
THAN 15Z/10AM.

LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST OHIO TO EASTERN
TENNESSEE. HRRR AND BUFKIT DATA WERE USED FOR THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR WITH THE SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. DO NOT
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO REACH KLYH OR KDAN BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE.
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AND WILL BE IN  THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WENT WITH LOWER CEILINGS THAN SUGGESTED
BY THE MODELS AT KLWB AND KBLF. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 20 TO 35
KNOTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS MONDAY...WITH THE REMAINING UPSLOPE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SLOWLY DISSIPATING AND BY MID AFTERNOON
MONDAY ALL TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD BE VFR. A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE
FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO SUBSEQUENT
FRONTAL PASSAGES AS WELL AS UPSLOPE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH




YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

 


























AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 1230 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN...MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING TO
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COLDER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY INTO THE MID 30S. IT
WILL BE DRY TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

DISJOINTED SYSTEM MOVG THROUGH SRN GRTLKS THIS AM WITH WEAK
PREFRONTAL ZONE PUSHING THROUGH OHIO ATTM WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND PARALLEL ISENTROPIC FLOW LENDING TO MEAGER LIFT
WITHIN THIN BREADTH OF RICHEST BULK MOISTURE. CWA NOW WITHIN DRY
SLOTTING/STRONG 1000-850MB MOISTURE FLUX DIVERGENCE WITH I280K
DOWNSLOPE DESPITE STRONG 160-180M/12 HR HFC MOVG THROUGH CNTL/SRN
IN AND LARGELY IN VOID OF RAFL SAVE FOR FAR NWRN/FAR SERN EDGES.
GIVEN SIG DOWNTURN IN BULK MOISTURE WITH ONLY LITTLE ENHANCEMENT
IN UPSTREAM COMMAHEAD PER WV IMAGERY AND FINE LINE LIGHT PRECIP
BAND WITH MARKED DPCVA HAVE CONTD WITH LOWER END CHC/SLIGHT CHC
POPS HIGHLIGHTING LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIP. SLIGHT INCREASE IN
HEIGHT/SLOWER COLLAPSE OF RUC WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WITH WARM SFC
BASED BLYR STILL LEADING TO LIQUID PTYPE ACRS NERN IL. SLIGHT LK
ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONING ACRS FAR NWRN CWA FOR HIEST POPS BYND
PREFIRST PD. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT 295MB CAA TO
KEEP DIURNAL RISES WELL IN CHECK...ONLY ABOUT 3 DEGREE RISE OVR
12-15 UTC LOWS. SMALL AMPLITUDE RIDGING THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT AS
TROF AXIS CONTS TO ROTATE THROUGH LWR GRTLKS INTO NEW ENGLAND.
POSSIBLE WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTION OFF LEE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH
WEAK SFC REFLECTION INTO SERN MO BY DAYBREAK MONDAY PER WELL
CLUSTERED MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER THIS PRESENTS NO SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT GIVEN FEATURES DISTAL NATURE/DEEP LAYER
DESCENT OWING TO RISING 80-100M/12 HR 5H RISES AND DEARTH OF
MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH LOW/PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN
HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD AS SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES IN
AMPLIFYING MEAN WNW FLOW DIG SE THROUGH THE LAKES/OH VALLEY.
CONSENSUS TREND IN 00Z GUIDANCE WAS TOWARD A DRIER SYSTEM LOCALLY
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INITIAL LEAD PV PUSH/850-700 MB FGEN
SIGNAL NORTH INTO CENTRAL MI TUESDAY...AND DEEPER LIFT/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TIED TO A MORE PRONOUNCED/DIGGING SHORTWAVE FOCUSING
SE OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT LOWERED POPS FOR
LGT RN/SN MIX IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS FOLLOW IN QUICK
SUCCESSION MAKING IT HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT CHANCES FOR -SN
IN ANY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE AREA AND
GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND FUEL ALTERNATE CONDITIONS.
THIS WAVE WILL EXIT IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS BUT A SECONDARY IMPULSE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. PERIODS OF VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND PREFER TO KEEP 3 KFT CEILINGS BASED ON
MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS. LOWER STRATUS WILL RETURN AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD JUST ABOVE FUEL ALTERNATE
CRITERIA FOR NOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TOMORROW BUT MAY BE
MIDDAY BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 145 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

DRIER AIR MIXING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS EATEN AWAY AT THE CU
FIELD THAT DEVELOPED MID MORNING...RESULTING IN A BIT MORE SUNSHINE
THAN ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT HAVING TO ADJUST
AFTERNOON HIGHS UP SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE. SEEING
THE OCCASIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT ECHOS IN THE FAR EAST...SO
ISOLD TO SCT POPS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR EXTREME EAST STILL
APPEARS WARRANTED. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS POTENTIAL COVERED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

RAIN HAS EXITED THE AREA...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
STILL OUT THERE ACROSS OUR EAST. AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP THROUGH THE
MID DAY TIME FRAME...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT IN COMBINATION
WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO
REFORM ACROSS OUR EXTREME EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS THAT THE
RAP...NAM AND GFS HAVE ALL PICKED UP ON THIS POTENTIAL. THE HRRR HAS
AS WELL...BUT IS ADVERTISING A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT AREAL THREAT WITH
RESPECT TO COVERAGE. WILL WATCH TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR
NOW INCREASED POPS IN OUR EXTREME EAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE BROUGHT GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS.
FOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS...WEAK CAA AND REDEVELOPMENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
CU FIELD WILL BATTLE DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN NEARLY STEADY TO
SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION...
SATELLITE...AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. THIS LED TO GENERALLY A QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE CWA AND A LITTLE COLDER
TEMPS IN WESTERN SECTIONS. OTHERWISE...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE
MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ATTM. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT...REGIONAL
ASOS SITES AND KY MESONET SITES INDICATE THAT MEASURABLE RAIN HAS
FALLEN ALONG THE NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL KY. THIS BAND
OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND MAY BE
HALF WAY ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNRISE. THE OTHER FEATURE AT THIS TIME
IS DECOUPLED EASTERN VALLEYS IN THE 30S IN SOME PLACES WHILE THE TOP
OF BLACK MTN IS ALSO LINGER IN THE 30S. IN FACT...THE TOP OF BLACK
MTN IS 33 WITH A DEW POINT OF 25 ATTM.

WE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS AS THE
BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS IT WILL ALSO LIKELY
MEASURE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AS IT ROLLS ACROSS EAST KY
THROUGH MID MORNING. AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES
TEMPS IN THE DECOUPLED AREAS THROUGH REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. MIN TEMPS ALSO WILL BE REACHED IN SOME AREAS WITH
WETBULBING. CONFIDENCE IN THE THE DEGREE OF SKY COVER FROM MIDDAY
INTO TONIGHT IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE AS MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FROM
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE AT LEAST SOME CU OR STRATOCU LINGERING...BUT
AT PRESENT THERE IS A SHARP BACK EDGE. IF CLEARING DOES OCCUR...THE
MAX WILL BE AT LEAST A CAT HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND LOWS
TONIGHT WOULD ALSO BE LOWER. MAX T FOR TODAY SHOULD BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN ON SAT ON AVERAGE HOWEVER...AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL
DROP ABOUT 6 DEGREES C FROM SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW WOULD ARGUE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGERING INTO TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY MONDAY
AS DOES A WEAK WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THIS LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN MIN T FOR
TONIGHT AND THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...ATTM...THIS WARM FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO MOISTURE STARVED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING. CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD PROVIDE A SHARP DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S ONCE MORE. A STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MILD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING MAINLY RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
MAY BE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE SOME SNOW
MAY BE MORE LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SO HAVE GONE WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME
RAIN MAY LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STILL SOME QUESTIONS
REGARDING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD...AS MODELS
SUPPORT SOME MOISTURE HANGING ON IN EAST KENTUCKY AND POSSIBLY SOME
FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE. MODELS REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN...NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST
GOING FORWARD. AFTER A COOLER END TO THE WEEK...IT DOES APPEAR
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS MAY GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...WHICH AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER AN OCCASIONAL BUT TEMPORARY DROP INTO MVFR TERRITORY CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SFC OBS ACROSS THE REGION.
BUT OVERALL CIGS AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND WE
SHOULD SEE SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THIS
MORNING/S FROPA CONTINUE TO GUST DECENTLY OUT OF THE WEST. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY RUNNING AROUND 10 KTS WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KTS. THESE SHOULD SLACKEN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT PICK UP
AGAIN TO AROUND 6-7 KTS TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...RAY









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

 302 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHILE A
COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAVES APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST...THE FIRST MOVING OVER THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC LOPRES OFF WAL TAFTN. ITS CHUGGING NEWD AS CDFNT ENTERS SHEN
VLY/I-81. AXIS OF MDL RAFL ASSOCD W/ LLJ MAINLY OVER THE DELMARVA
ALTHO BACK EDGE MAY BE CLIPPING THE ERN SIDE OF THE BAY. ON THE
WHOLE...PCPN FM IT OVER. WL BE TURNING ATTN TO WELL DEFINED VORT
AXIS/SFC CDFNT FOR AFTN-EVE PCPN PRODUCTION.

WHILE THE AMPLITUDE/INTENSITY OF THE PVA SUGGESTS THAT SCT SHOWERS
WUD BE PSBL...DRY AIR HAS DVLPD E OF THE FNT-- ENUF TO HV A DRY SLOT
WHERE CLDS SCATTERING OUT ACRS CENTRL VA. HRRR HAS BACKED AWAY FM A
SOLN WHERE A LINE OF LGT QPF WUD CROSS CWFA MID-LT AFTN AS IT
DEPICTED IN ERLR RUNS. AM STILL HESITANT TO GO COMPLETELY DRY INVOF
FNT..AND HV CHC POPS RETURNING AFTR 20Z.

MRNG LOW CLDS/PCPN HAS KEPT IT COOLER THAN PRVSLY ADVERTISED...AND
CAA SHUD BE UNDERWAY SHORTLY. THAT WUD MAKE FOR A COLUMN WHERE
SHOWERS MAY FALL AS SHSN IF VERT VELOCITIES FAST ENUF. WL BRING A
SHRASN MIX INTO THE PTMC HIGHLANDS PRIOR TO SUNSET. DONT HV THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO FURTHER EAST...ALTHO ITS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
PSBLTY.

ENUF COLD AIR WL REACH APLCNS FOR PTYPE TO CHG TO SHSN BY NIGHTFALL.
BEST FORCING COMES IN THE EVNG...AND MSTR LOOKS TO BE A LTL MORE
PLENTIFUL THAN PRVS RUNS. HV BUMPED UP SNW TTLS A LTL...BUT NOT ENUF
TO TRIGGER AN ADVY.

COOLING TNGT WL BE COMING FM ADVCTN...NOT RADIATION. FOR THAT
REASON...AND MAINTENANCE OF A GRADIENT...MIN-T FCST MIDPACK OR
PERHAPS A PINCH HIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BREEZY AND DRY IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME ON MONDAY. THE STRONGER
GUSTS WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...FROM THE
I-66 CORRIDOR TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CNTRL APLCNS. THE INFLUX OF DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS
MODERATED IN THE U30S/L40S ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE WINDIER
CONDITIONS EXIST...WHILE THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE TEMPS
CLIMBING CLOSER TO 50F BY MID AFTN.

ANOTHER SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS CLOUDS EXIT THE REGION
ALONG W/ THE PARENT UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. FAST UPPER AND
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A
SERIES OF CLIPPERS AND CLIPPER-LIKE UPPER VORT PASSAGES WILL MARK
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...A LONG BAND
OF MID-UPPER CLOUDS WILL BE CARRIED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD
THE MID-ATLC. SIMILAR DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUE...BUT MAINLY FROM THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO WINDS...THE SRN
TIER COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE RELATIVELY WARMER CONDITIONS NEAR
THE L50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE A MUCH LARGER UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE JUST NORTH OF
HUDSON BAY...SEVERAL VORT LOBES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE CURRENT WEEK AND LIKELY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST IN THIS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE MID-ATLC DURING THE DAYTIME HRS ON
WED. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE ITS ORIGINS IN THE NRN PACIFIC BUT
WILL BE DIRECTED QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM TUE
INTO WED.

ENSEMBLES SHOW A TRACK ESSENTIALLY OVER TOP OUR AREA W/ DISCREPANCY
W/IN VARIOUS MEMBERS OF THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. KEPT A HIGH-RANGE CHANCE POP FOR THE
DAYTIME HRS. MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO GIVE A MAX TEMP WELL ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE AREA OUTSIDE THE MTNS...WHICH POINTS TO THE LACK
OF STRONG CAA...EVEN IF ENOUGH COLD AIR IS CARRIED W/IN THE
FEATURE TO DEVELOP SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATING SNOWS MOST
CONFIDENTLY WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM START-TO-FINISH W/
LOWER CONFIDENCE EAST OF THE APLCNS. PERIODS OF SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LOOK POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT IT APPEARS
THE LOW WILL HAVE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST BEFORE A MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIP SHIELD DEVELOPS.

ANOTHER COUPLE OF WEAKER BUT CLOSER-TOGETHER UPPER VORTS WILL BE
RIGHT BEHIND THE WED CLIPPER. EACH WILL LACK MOISTURE OUTSIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD DECK THAT COULD BRING MORE SNOWS TO THE
MTNS W/ UPSLOPE EFFECTS ON THU AND AGAIN ON FRI. WEAK IN-SITU HIGH
PRESSURE IN BETWEEN UPPER WAVES AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
CONDITIONS BACK TOWARD AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CDFNT APPROACHING THE TERMINALS...AND SHUD BE THRU BY 21Z. VFR
POST-FROPA...AOB IFR AHD OF IT DUE TO LOW CLDS AND VSBYS. OUTSIDE
CHC OF A BRIEF SHRA THRU 00Z. LOW CONFIDENCE AND LMTD AREAL CVRG
PRECLUDE A TAF MENTION. ONCE TROF AXIS PASSES...CIGS WL LIFT AND
CLDS DSPT.

WINDS WL BE NWLY TNGT...BUT THEY WONT PICK UP TIL MIDDAY MON...W/
GUSTS 20-25KT LKLY AT THAT TIME. THE WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TOWARD SUNSET W/ A GOOD STRETCH OF LIGHT WINDS INTO MID
WEEK. A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO SLIDE OVER THE
AREA. ONE MID WEEK AND ANOTHER TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
EACH ONE POTENTIALLY BRINGING A WINTRY MIX.

&&

.MARINE...
CDFNT WL CROSS WATERS BY 00Z. NW WINDS WL PICK AFTR FROPA. WL KEEP
SCA IN EFFECT TNGT FOR 20 KT GUSTS.

GUSTS INCREASE MON MRNG ACROSS THE WATERS AND SOLID SCA CONDITIONS
OVER THE AREA WELL INTO THE AFTN...SHOULD SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TOWARD
THE EVE HRS. LIGHT WINDS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK W/ HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWING THRU
ON WED...POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...CEM/GMS
AVIATION...HTS/GMS
MARINE...HTS/GMS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1207 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE INTO NW WI
SUPPORTED LITTLE MORE THAN SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN NE
MN AND NW WI. ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER NW MANITOBA.
AT THE SFC...A 995 MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY TO THE THE E
END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE S END OF JAMES
BAY THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO SRN MANITOBA. WITH NW FLOW...LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE AND CAA BRINGING IN ONLY MODERATELY COLD AIR (850 MB
TEMPS TO NEAR -11C) ONLY WEAK LES OR FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT.

WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...EXPECT ONLY SCT -SHSN INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR NW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHIT AFTERNOON
DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -14C ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MANITOBA SHRTWV MAY BOOST THE LES. THE HIGHER RES MODELS
SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL CONV INTO WRN UPPER MI FROM IWD TOWARD ONTONAGON
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN SHSN WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL WIND
BACKING TREND WITH INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
DROPPING TO AROUND 3K FT SHOULD ALLOW THE LES TO DIMINISH. THE
REMAINING SCT LIGHT SHSN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM IWD AND SHIFT INTO
N CNTRL UPPER MI. HOWEVER...ANY ACCCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AT
OR BELOW AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND PRODUCE PERIODS OF GENERALLY LIGHT
SNOW. BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS THERE MAY BE A FEW LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS
OR SNOW...BUT 850MB TEMPS DON/T REALLY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE MIDDLE TEENS BELOW ZERO.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL END UP AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS MOST DAYS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL.

STARTING OFF MONDAY MORNING...THE AREA WILL UNDER THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF A RIDGE FROM A HIGH NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS RIDGE WILL REALLY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS TONIGHT AND THEY
WILL ONLY BE AROUND 2-3KFT MONDAY MORNING. BUT WITH 925MB TEMPS
AROUND -15C AND MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WOULD
EXPECT LAKE CLOUDS TO BE PRESENT. BASED OFF THE SFC-925MB WINDS
(NORTHERLY BUT VEERING OVER THE WEST)...THINK THE CLOUDS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH WINDS DO
VEER THROUGH THE DAY...DON/T EXPECT MUCH CLEARING WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION...SO WILL FOCUS ON MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN BEING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. IN THE MORNING.

THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM
WILL BE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 18Z TUESDAY. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE BROAD AND GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...LARGELY TIED TO THE POTENTIAL PHASING OF TWO SHORTWAVES
EITHER OVER THE AREA OR EAST OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS
(00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF) PHASE THE WAVES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
AND TRACK MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF TRACK THE PRECIP ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVES PHASING DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA. 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES
APPEAR TO BE SPLIT ON THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WHICH LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BUT DID TREND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION WITH IT/S
GROWING NUMBER OF MEMBERS. THUS...FOCUSED THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER AND WILL KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY UNDER AN
INCH.

BEHIND THE LOW AND SHORTWAVES...WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND DRIES OUT THE MID LEVELS. STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WITH 900-850MB
TEMPS ONLY AROUND -10C THERE SHOULDN/T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE
HELP. ESPECIALLY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS FOCUSED IN THE NORTHERLY WIND AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WON/T SHOW MUCH MORE THAN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS.

ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SNOW OTHER THAN A QUICK DUSTING OR SOME FLURRIES. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...IT DOES APPEAR THAT COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE ONLY AROUND 4KFT.
THUS...WOULD EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. THE ONLY POSITIVE IS MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING AROUND
OR WITHIN THE DGZ...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO FLUFFIER SNOW BUT LIMIT
IMPACT. THIS LIGHT AND FLUFFY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THIS SERIES ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THUS...HAVE SPREAD ANOTHER PERIOD
OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE COULD PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AT CMX THIS MORNING AND AT IWD AND SAW LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH. IWD HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A PERIOD OF IFR VSBY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW MVFR
AT CMX AND SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS TODAY IN THE TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND A LOW
OVER NRN ONTARIO...WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30 KNOTS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 1207 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION ISSUED BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

A BAND OF SNOW HAS MOVED OVER THE ARROWHEAD THANKS TO A VORT MAX
CROSSING THROUGH. COOLING CLOUD TOPS NOTED ON SATELLITE SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME MODERATE BANDS AS WELL WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 833 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING SOME UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTHERN MN. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. REST OF THE FORECAST IN
THE BALLPARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

SCATTED BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH SHORE LAKE
EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY...THEN SOME CLEARING LATE TODAY BEFORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ON MONDAY. TEMPS
MILD...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH A FAIRLY TYPICAL RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN
OVER THE LOWER 48...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN US/CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL CHANGE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVE EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD. WITH THE COMPLEXITY OF THIS UPCOMING PATTERN
CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW FOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY DUE TO
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AND THE DIFFERENCES JUST A SMALL SHIFT IN A
PATTERN CAN MEAN TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LIKE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TODAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING AND SOUTH SHORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IN BOTH LOCATIONS...WITH A
COATING TO A FEW QUICK TENTHS OF AN INCH IN NORTHERN MN AND UP TO AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND
COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE ARE FAIRLY STEEP AT LOW LEVELS...AND
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
FAIRLY INTENSE /POSSIBLY DROPPING VISIBILITY TO A MILE AT
TIMES/...BUT THEIR SHORT DURATION WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES MILD...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA...SO IN MOST
PLACES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING
HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY
SEE THE SUN BREAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDING MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL SNOW SHOWERS WILL
END BY THE EARLY EVENING AND THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO MID-TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. CURRENT
FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO MILD IF CLOUD COVER IS LESS THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY...A VERY COMPLEX PATTERN AT MID-LEVELS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AS H5 HEIGHTS FALL AND A LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER. CURRENT SPREAD OF
MODEL GUIDANCE IS LARGER THAN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME RANGE...AND THUS
HAVE BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR HOW THIS STORM WILL EVOLVE. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA QUICKLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST...REACHING NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY MID/LATE MORNING. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE FROM BEMIDJI EAST ALONG THE HIGHWAY TWO
CORRIDOR AND INTO MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PLACES THE BEST CORRIDOR FOR SNOWFALL
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION. WENT WITH A CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH 1-3 INCHES...BUT SEE POTENTIAL
FOR A SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
RELATIVELY MILD...UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXCEPT FOR THE ARROWHEAD
REGION WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

PERSISTENT NW FLOW POSITIONED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FOR
A WAVE TRAIN OF MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EACH VORT MAX/CLIPPER
WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND/OR DRIZZLE...KEEPING
SMALL POPS IN NEARLY EVERY PERIOD OUT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH...TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE FAST MOVING WAVES CAN BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED H85
TROUGH AND SFC LOW IS ON TRACK TO BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
AN INCH OR TWO FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL GRADUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD TODAY... BRINGING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH IT. MVFR CIGS ARE
OCCURRING... OR EXPECTED SOON ACROSS MOST TAF SITES WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR EXPECTED GENERALLY AROUND THE 22Z TO 0Z
TIME FRAME FOR THOSE SITES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HYR... WITH CIGS
HOVERING AROUND THE MVFR/VRF LINE. A NEW SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT... WHICH WILL BRING CIGS BACK DOWN TO
MVFR... WITH POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT IFR LEVELS MAINLY FROM 12Z ON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
NORTHLAND... WHICH MAY BRING VIS DOWN TO 3SM ON OCCASION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  16  28  21 /  20  40  60  60
INL  28   8  27  15 /  20  20  40  30
BRD  31  19  33  22 /   0  30  40  40
HYR  33  16  29  20 /  10  20  60  60
ASX  35  15  27  20 /  30  20  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MCLOVIN







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 1052 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 225 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2015

Main forecast issue today is how warm to go with temps. The weak
cold front has pushed east of the area and the core of coolest air
is already centered east of the CWA. Surface winds remain westerly
at this time and warm advection aloft has begun. All signals
currently point to raising the high temperatures. Heights aloft
will be on the rise in the wake of the departing upper trof, low
level WAA will be occuring, surface winds will have a largely
westerly component while backing slightly this afternoon, and
temps at this early morning hour are not very cold. The only
clouds should be a swath of high clouds passing west to east. Sans
the HRRR and RAP, the 2m model temps and MOS guidance has exhibited
a pretty good cool bias the last few days. The HRRR and RAP have
peformed rather well and the new forecast for today nudges highs
closer to them with another day of well above average temperatures.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2015

The models depict a weak surface low migrating east-southeastward
from near Kansas City into southern Illinois tonight along a wind
shift boundary, and then lift this boundary to the east of the CWA
during the day on Monday. There has been some type of this depiction
the last few days in the models, however the placement now is further
south and leaves into question the nature of the surface wind field
on Monday and strength of warm advection. I have lowered temps
slightly as a result, but taking into account the cool bias, not
as much as MOS and they are still above average.

Another northwest flow shortwave will amplify as it moves through
the area Tuesday into Tuesday Night. There is initially a westerly
wind shift on Monday night in response, with increasing baroclinicity
and cold advection on Tuesday and Tuesday night as the heights
aloft really begin to fall. A greater number of the models are now
generating precipitation across southern MO and southern IL on
Tuesday in response to mid level convergence/frontogenesis, weak
large scale ascent, and divergence associated with the ULJ. I have
added some slight chance pops as a result, but these pops may need
to be ramped up should the current model trends persist.

Cooler temperatures, more seasonable for the later part of January,
will prevail during the later part of the week and into the
weekend however confidence in the degree of cooling is low. The
large scale pattern will once again become more amplified with an
upper ridge from the East Pacific into western North America and a
downstream longwave trof dominating a good portion of the Conus
which favors overall cooler weather. However, there is considerable
variability in the deterministic models and GEFS ensemble members
with the shortwaves moving through the longwave leading to lower
than normal predicatability.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1048 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2015

Northwest flow aloft and weak areas of low pressure will produce a
VFR forecast with light winds.

Specifics for KSTL: Some mid to high clouds and a west wind for
the early part of the forecast, then the wind becomes light and
variale late tonight. VFR through the period.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 307 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...WILL AFFECT
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 307 PM EST SUNDAY...COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO CONTINUES TO
UNFOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AS COPIOUS MOISTURE IS
DRIVEN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH. IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE PRIMARY
COASTAL FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIDE DISPARITY IN
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND THEMALLY DRIVEN
VERTICAL MOTIONS LEADING TO A 75-100 NM BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PCPN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
INTO THIS EVENING...THIS PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. SOME REPORTS OF -FZRA OCCURRING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VT ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS PCPN AND STILL
EXPECT SOME LIGHT ICING CONCERNS IN THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THEREAFTER HAVE OFFERED MAINLY A RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO AS
LARGE-SCALE WARM THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WILL BE COMING TO AN
END BY THAT POINT. HOWEVER...THOSE THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWER
TO MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE PROBLEMATICAL IN THE SENSE OF
PREDICTING EXACT TIMING OF RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER AND TOTAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...USED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND FOR
QPF...AND MOST RECENT RAP THERMAL PROFILES TO LARGELY GOVERN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/NRN VT
(5-11 INCHES)...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE VT VALLEYS (2-6 INCHES)
AND ACROSS NRN NY (1-4 INCHES) WHICH WILL BE TOO FAR WEST TO
EXPERIENCE HEAVIER FGEN/QPF. I WILL NOTE THAT MOST RECENT TRENDS
IN THE NEAR- TERM HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRIMARY PCPN SHIELD IS
TENDING TO SHIFT A TAD FURTHER EAST THAN CURRENT FORECAST. IF THIS
PANS OUT...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN VT MAY BE A TAD LESS
THAN CURRENT FORECASTS. TIME WILL TELL HOWEVER...AND ALL
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THIS PACKAGE.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EST SUNDAY...LINGERING/WRAP-AROUND LIGHT SNOWS
AND/OR SHSN THEN FADE WITH TIME DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS QUICKLY NORTH AND EAST FROM THE AREA. MODEST
COLD THERMAL ADVECTION ON WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK AND IN MOST LOCALES NEAR STEADY VALUES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED. ANY LINGERING MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD TEND TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS.

THEREAFTER...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES BUILDS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION AND WILL SET UP SHOP FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THUS GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE OFFERED WITH
SEASONABLY COLD MID-WINTER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE
OF DAYS FCST WITH REGARDS TO LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WHICH
FEATURES BLW NORMAL CHCS FOR PRECIP AND SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL TEMPS.
ALL LONG TERM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF AND 00Z
ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTS MEAN MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH OUR CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE NORTHERN JET. THE BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS WL COME ALONG SAT
INTO SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM. LATEST PROGS SHOW THIS SYSTEM TRACKING ACRS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA BY NEXT SUNDAY...WHICH PLACES
OUR CWA IN THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLW AND IMPACTS OF SHADOWING OFF
THE DACKS ACRS THE CPV. IN ADDITION...BEST RH PROGS AND ULVL
SUPPORT WL BE MAINLY NORTH OF OUR FA...SUPPORTING ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. OTHERWISE...DRY FCST
EXPECTED FROM WEDS UNTIL SATURDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE -5F TO +5F
COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR 10F CPV...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO
MID 20S. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 30F CPV.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...HIGH IMPACT TO AVIATION EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTN UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
ICING...HEAVY SNOW AND DEVELOPING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
CRNT RADAR SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY PRECIP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...MOVING TWD SOUTHERN VT ATTM. THIS PREICP WL IMPACT
RUTLAND BY 19Z AND MPV BY 20Z...AND INTO BTV/PBG BTWN 21Z AND 23Z
THIS EVENING. GIVEN VERY COLD SUB-SFC TEMPS...EXPECT RAIN TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY AT MPV WITH SOME
LIGHT ICING LIKELY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP
ARRIVES THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW BTWN 00Z
AND 03Z ACRS OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV/BTV WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY BTWN 03Z-08Z. AFT 08Z CONDITIONS WL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO IFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VIS IN AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES.
MEANWHILE...AT MSS/SLK MUCH LESS IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND DEVELOPING IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK AND MAINLY
MVFR AT MSS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WL PERSIST AT SLK/MPV ON MONDAY
WITH IFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY THRU 15Z. IN ADDITION...STRONG 925MB TO
850MB WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH THE LLVL WINDSHEAR AND TURBULENCE.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DEPARTING LOW PRES WL
RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFT 18Z MONDAY...WITH VFR
DEVELOPING BY 00Z TUES. THESE CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THRU THE
WEEK...WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A QUICK MOVING AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
SPREAD A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA TONIGHT. A SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR REGION...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM A COUPLE TENTHS SLV/NORTHERN DACKS TO 0.75 AND 1.50
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS BY 12Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE
VERY INTENSE RATE OF PRECIP ANTICIPATED AND SOME OF THIS FALLING IN
THE FORM OF RAIN...SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON LOCAL
STREAMS AND RIVERS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW BREAK UP ICE JAMS.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS THE SMALLER STREAMS AND
RIVERS OF ADDISON...RUTLAND....WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. NO WIDESPREAD OR LARGE SCALE FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED ATTM...ONLY MINOR IF ANY AT ALL.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1259 PM EST SUNDAY...THERE HAVE BEEN NO AUTOMATED SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT THE ADIRONDACK AIRPORT/SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) SINCE
EARLY THIS MORNING. INTERMITTENT POWER OUTAGES AT THE SLK ASOS IS
THE SUSPECTED CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE. THE FAA AND ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE OUTAGE AND ARE WORKING TO RESTORE
OBSERVATIONS AT SARANAC LAKE, BUT NO ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE
IS KNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR VTZ001-005-009.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ002>004-006>008-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...TABER
EQUIPMENT...LOCONTO



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 251 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY MINOR SYSTEM
IMPACTS AREA ON WEDNESDAY THEN GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY SUNSET. MODELS INDICATE
THAT DESCENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEING H85
TEMPERATURES TO MINUS 8C TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF
WV TONIGHT. WWD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. ALL MODELS SUGGEST SOME PCPN IN
THEIR QPF FIELDS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...WRF AND RUC13 ALSO INDICATE SOME KIND OF
BANDING PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE NAM AND WRF MODELS SHOW SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE
MOISTURE PLUME COMES FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
BE ENHANCED BY A SMALL UPSLOPE COMPONENT UNDER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE NAM AND HYSPLIT BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE
SHOULD COME FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...PLUS LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT...COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST QUADRANT FOR TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...MODELS DID NOT DEPICT THE INTENSITY OF PCPN ALONG THE
COLD FRONT TODAY...AS THEY LOOKED OVERDONE. THIS INSERTS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. THEREFORE...CODED UP TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...EXTENDING WEST TO COVER FEW
COUNTIES WITH LIKELY POPS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT TO GENTLE
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

WENT MAINLY WITH MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MIDWEEK WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONES DROPPING THRU BROAD
UPPER TROF. FOLLOWED HPC PREFERRED SOLUTION CLOSE TO GFS. MOST
NOTABLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO DELAY ARRIVAL OF POPS
ACROSS THE NW UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS N WV ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUBSEQUENT
FROPA SWINGING DO THRU REMAINDER OF CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE
PRECIP SLOWLY MIXING WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO -SN ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND SE OH
CHANGING WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLIPPER EXITS THE REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING. AFTER THAT...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
DETAILS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE THAT THERE IS NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT
TO NOTE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM APPROACHES
IN A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH. STILL WAY TOO FAR OUT TO PUT ANY WEIGHT
IN THIS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING MVFR
CEILINGS...ABOUT 2200 FEET...AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS BEHIND
IT. A SECOND WAVE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT AND SQUEEZE LINGERING MOISTURE FURTHER DOWN...TO
1500 FEET OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES ACCORDING WITH SREF MODEL AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND TURNING MORE FROM THE WEST WITH A
LITTLE COMPONENT FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS
DROPPING TO LOW MVFR. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO AFFECT EKN AND SURROUNDING AREAS WITH
PERIODS OF IFR. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE...DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE IFR AT EKN AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL WV WITH SOME CLEARING.
THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS COULD PREVAIL MONDAY AT LEAST OVER
HTS...CRW...AND BKW BY MID DAY...AND THE REST OF SITES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

CHANCES FOR PCPN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
WAVES PASSING BY. TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: MAY NEED TO ADD RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
AFTER 03Z MONDAY FOR CKB AND EKN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...ARJ








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 250 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY MINOR SYSTEM
IMPACTS AREA ON WEDNESDAY THEN GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY SUNSET. MODELS INDICATE
THAT DESCENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEING H85
TEMPERATURES TO MINUS 8C TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF
WV TONIGHT. WWD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. ALL MODELS SUGGEST SOME PCPN IN
THEIR QPF FIELDS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...WRF AND RUC13 ALSO INDICATE SOME KIND OF
BANDING PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE NAM AND WRF MODELS SHOW SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE
MOISTURE PLUME COMES FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
BE ENHANCED BY A SMALL UPSLOPE COMPONENT UNDER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE NAM AND HYSPLIT BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE
SHOULD COME FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...PLUS LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT...COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST QUADRANT FOR TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...MODELS DID NOT DEPICT THE INTENSITY OF PCPN ALONG THE
COLD FRONT TODAY...AS THEY LOOKED OVERDONE. THIS INSERTS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. THEREFORE...CODED UP TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...EXTENDING WEST TO COVER FEW
COUNTIES WITH LIKELY POPS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT TO GENTLE
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

WENT MAINLY WITH MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MIDWEEK WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONES DROPPING THRU BROAD
UPPER TROF. FOLLOWED HPC PREFERRED SOLUTION CLOSE TO GFS. MOST
NOTABLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO DELAY ARRIVAL OF POPS
ACROSS THE NW UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS N WV ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUBSEQUENT
FROPA SWINGING DO THRU REMAINDER OF CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE
PRECIP SLOWLY MIXING WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO -SN ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND SE OH
CHANGING WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLIPPER EXITS THE REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING. AFTER THAT...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
DETAILS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE THAT THERE IS NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT
TO NOTE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM APPROACHES
IN A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH. STILL WAY TOO FAR OUT TO PUT ANY WEIGHT
IN THIS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING MVFR
CEILINGS...ABOUT 2200 FEET...AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS BEHIND
IT. A SECOND WAVE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT AND SQUEEZE LINGERING MOISTURE FURTHER DOWN...TO
1500 FEET OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES ACCORDING WITH SREF MODEL AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND TURNING MORE FROM THE WEST WITH A
LITTLE COMPONENT FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS
DROPPING TO LOW MVFR. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO AFFECT EKN AND SURROUNDING AREAS WITH
PERIODS OF IFR. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE...DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE IFR AT EKN AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL WV WITH SOME CLEARING.
THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS COULD PREVAIL MONDAY AT LEAST OVER
HTS...CRW...AND BKW BY MID DAY...AND THE REST OF SITES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

CHANCES FOR PCPN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
WAVES PASSING BY. TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: MAY NEED TO ADD RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
AFTER 03Z MONDAY FOR CKB AND EKN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...ARJ












AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 222 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY MINOR SYSTEM
IMPACTS AREA ON WEDNESDAY THEN GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY SUNSET. MODELS INDICATE
THAT DESCENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEING H85
TEMPERATURES TO MINUS 8C TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF
WV TONIGHT. WWD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. ALL MODELS SUGGEST SOME PCPN IN
THEIR QPF FIELDS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...WRF AND RUC13 ALSO INDICATE SOME KIND OF
BANDING PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE NAM AND WRF MODELS SHOW SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE
MOISTURE PLUME COMES FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
BE ENHANCED BY A SMALL UPSLOPE COMPONENT UNDER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE NAM AND HYSPLIT BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE
SHOULD COME FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...PLUS LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT...COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST QUADRANT FOR TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...MODELS DID NOT DEPICT THE INTENSITY OF PCPN ALONG THE
COLD FRONT TODAY...AS THEY LOOKED OVERDONE. THIS INSERTS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. THEREFORE...CODED UP TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...EXTENDING WEST TO COVER FEW
COUNTIES WITH LIKELY POPS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT TO GENTLE
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

WENT MAINLY WITH MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A VERY BUSY AND DIFFICULT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN
WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
JUICY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS
IS THEREFORE A RATHER NUISANCE BUT UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A COOLING
TREND FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH DIFFICULTY
TO FOLLOW AND TIME THESE DISTURBANCES. MODELS HAVE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT DROPPING ACROSS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
REINFORCING COOL SHOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE IS
MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE THIS MAIN
DISTURBANCE...AND THEREFORE TRACK/TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SURFACE LOW RANGE FROM
THE SLOWEST AND MOST WELL DEVELOPED CMC SOLUTION THAT TRACKS THE LOW
ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT...TO THE FASTEST
EURO WITH A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE CMC BUT LESS DEVELOPED LOW...TO THE
FARTHEST NORTH AND WEAKEST SOLUTION OF THE NAM THAT TRACKS THE LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS A TRUE MIDDLE GROUND AND
A GOOD COMPROMISE...TAKING A WEAKER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REDEVELOPING IT EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW.

THIS GFS ACCEPTED SOLUTION THEN HAS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW...FOLLOWED BY THE LOW CUTTING ACROSS
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT.

MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK HOGGING
THINGS WELL TO THE SOUTH. BUT FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FROM THE WARM FRONT
AND FOLLOWING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT...AND MOIST COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED AND COOLING TREND FOR MID WEEK.

SPECIFICALLY...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING WITH THE WARM
FRONT TUESDAY WITH MILD AIR...THEN A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT TRENDING TOWARD A WINTRY MIX LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AND FINALLY SOME LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE 30S
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLIPPER EXITS THE REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING. AFTER THAT...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
DETAILS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE THAT THERE IS NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT
TO NOTE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM APPROACHES
IN A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH. STILL WAY TOO FAR OUT TO PUT ANY WEIGHT
IN THIS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING MVFR
CEILINGS...ABOUT 2200 FEET...AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS BEHIND
IT. A SECOND WAVE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT AND SQUEEZE LINGERING MOISTURE FURTHER DOWN...TO
1500 FEET OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES ACCORDING WITH SREF MODEL AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND TURNING MORE FROM THE WEST WITH A
LITTLE COMPONENT FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS
DROPPING TO LOW MVFR. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO AFFECT EKN AND SURROUNDING AREAS WITH
PERIODS OF IFR. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE...DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE IFR AT EKN AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL WV WITH SOME CLEARING.
THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS COULD PREVAIL MONDAY AT LEAST OVER
HTS...CRW...AND BKW BY MID DAY...AND THE REST OF SITES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

CHANCES FOR PCPN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
WAVES PASSING BY. TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: MAY NEED TO ADD RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
AFTER 03Z MONDAY FOR CKB AND EKN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...ARJ










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 202 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER DISTURBANCES MID TO
LATE WEEK IN AN UNSETTLED AND COOLING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY SUNSET. MODELS INDICATE
THAT DESCENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEING H85
TEMPERATURES TO MINUS 8C TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF
WV TONIGHT. WWD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. ALL MODELS SUGGEST SOME PCPN IN
THEIR QPF FIELDS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...WRF AND RUC13 ALSO INDICATE SOME KIND OF
BANDING PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE NAM AND WRF MODELS SHOW SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE
MOISTURE PLUME COMES FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
BE ENHANCED BY A SMALL UPSLOPE COMPONENT UNDER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE NAM AND HYSPLIT BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE
SHOULD COME FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...PLUS LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT...COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST QUADRANT FOR TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...MODELS DID NOT DEPICT THE INTENSITY OF PCPN ALONG THE
COLD FRONT TODAY...AS THEY LOOKED OVERDONE. THIS INSERTS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. THEREFORE...CODED UP TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...EXTENDING WEST TO COVER FEW
COUNTIES WITH LIKELY POPS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT TO GENTLE
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

WENT MAINLY WITH MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A VERY BUSY AND DIFFICULT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN
WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
JUICY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS
IS THEREFORE A RATHER NUISANCE BUT UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A COOLING
TREND FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH DIFFICULTY
TO FOLLOW AND TIME THESE DISTURBANCES. MODELS HAVE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT DROPPING ACROSS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
REINFORCING COOL SHOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE IS
MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE THIS MAIN
DISTURBANCE...AND THEREFORE TRACK/TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SURFACE LOW RANGE FROM
THE SLOWEST AND MOST WELL DEVELOPED CMC SOLUTION THAT TRACKS THE LOW
ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT...TO THE FASTEST
EURO WITH A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE CMC BUT LESS DEVELOPED LOW...TO THE
FARTHEST NORTH AND WEAKEST SOLUTION OF THE NAM THAT TRACKS THE LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS A TRUE MIDDLE GROUND AND
A GOOD COMPROMISE...TAKING A WEAKER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REDEVELOPING IT EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW.

THIS GFS ACCEPTED SOLUTION THEN HAS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW...FOLLOWED BY THE LOW CUTTING ACROSS
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT.

MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK HOGGING
THINGS WELL TO THE SOUTH. BUT FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FROM THE WARM FRONT
AND FOLLOWING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT...AND MOIST COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED AND COOLING TREND FOR MID WEEK.

SPECIFICALLY...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING WITH THE WARM
FRONT TUESDAY WITH MILD AIR...THEN A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT TRENDING TOWARD A WINTRY MIX LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AND FINALLY SOME LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE 30S
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE...A CLIPPER MOVES IN MID WEEK...SPREADING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA. AFTER THAT...MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE THAT THERE IS NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT TO NOTE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING MVFR
CEILINGS...ABOUT 2200 FEET...AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS BEHIND
IT. A SECOND WAVE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT AND SQUEEZE LINGERING MOISTURE FURTHER DOWN...TO
1500 FEET OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES ACCORDING WITH SREF MODEL AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND TURNING MORE FROM THE WEST WITH A
LITTLE COMPONENT FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS
DROPPING TO LOW MVFR. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO AFFECT EKN AND SURROUNDING AREAS WITH
PERIODS OF IFR. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE...DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE IFR AT EKN AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL WV WITH SOME CLEARING.
THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS COULD PREVAIL MONDAY AT LEAST OVER
HTS...CRW...AND BKW BY MID DAY...AND THE REST OF SITES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

CHANCES FOR PCPN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
WAVES PASSING BY. TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: MAY NEED TO ADD RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
AFTER 03Z MONDAY FOR CKB AND EKN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...ARJ








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

 1146 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. /53/

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING.  DESPITE THIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUED W-SW
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE STREAMING ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.  EXPECT THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEEING SCTD CLOUD COVER AND UNLIMITED CIGS TO REMAIN
OVER N PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF A
ZAPATA TO ARMSTRONG LINE.  CIGS OVER THE MAJOR RGV AIRPORTS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 120...ALLOWING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MOSTLY
CONTINUE THROUGH 19/1800 UTC.

HERE`S THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT -- WIND SPEEDS OF 5 KTS. OR LESS
TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME BR TO BE SEEN.  SOME ADJUSTMENT TO ONSET
TIMING HAS BEEN MADE BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE...AND I SUSPECT ANY POTENTIAL CIG REDUCTIONS DUE TO VSBYS
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO KBRO AND KHRL. /53/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLDS MOVING
OVER THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. MEANWHILE AT THE LOW LEVELS
SURFACE OBS FROM AROUND THE REGION INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERLY
FLOW IS STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS KEEP PRETTY DRY CONDITIONS AT THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMS. THE SURFACE WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG TO REFORM MON
MONDAY. EXPECT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE RGV
AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ITS
WAY THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS
BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION. KBRO RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT
ELEVATED REFLECTIVITY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER MUCH OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. SO FAR SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT THESE ECHOES
ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLD COVER ADVECTING OVER TX FROM WEST TO EAST AND EXPECT
THIS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS THE ELEVATED MOISTURE FEED FROM THE WEST PERSISTS. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING WILL BE MOVING OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TO THE EAST ALOWING FOR A
RETURN OF LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ON MON.

THE MAV/MET AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT MAINTAINING FAIRLY STATUS QUO TEMPS
SINCE CAA WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK TODAY. SO WILL STICK CLOSE TO A
GENERAL BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH TOMORROW.

ALTHOUGH WE ARE DETECTING THE LIGHT ELEVATED PCPN ECHOES TO OUR WEST
AND SOUTH TODAY BELIEVE THAT THE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE
NORTH WILL PREVENT ANY VIRGA FROM REACHING THE GROUND TODAY. SO NEAR
NIL POPS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.

SURFACE OBS OVER THE PAST HOUR HAVE STARTED REPORTING SOME AREAS OF
FOG OVER THE REGION. SO FAR THE FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT. SINCE THE
SURFACE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED AROUND TO
THE W-N BELIEVE THAT THE CURRENT FOG WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT
AND SHORT LIVED AS THE DRIER AIR ERODES AWAY THE SURFACE MOISTURE.
NO DENSE FOG EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRY
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL PROVIDE FOR A WARM DAY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER
70S...TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE WEST.

NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DEVELOP OF A COASTAL TROUGH AND
APPROACHING 500MB TROUGH. THE AIR MASS IS NOT OVERLY COLD BUT
OVERRUNNING RAIN AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL OR REMAIN STEADY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AS A SURGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE ON FRIDAY
AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY HOWEVER...SOME TIMING ISSUES
CONTINUE DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 60.

MARINE.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...THE PGF WILL STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY AS
SOME STRONGER N-NE SURFACE WINDS BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND THE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING
TOMORROW. WILL MENTION SCEC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TODAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
LONG TERM FORECASTER... MILLER
PSU... BILLINGS