Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/17/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
958 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY...AND THEN WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... THE FORECAST ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ONLY BE PUNCTUATED BY A FEW VERY THIN HIGH CLOUDS LATER ON AS A BIT OF WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE INCREASES ON THE ENTRANCE FLANKS OF A DEPARTING UPPER JET SEGMENT ALOFT. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDERWAY AND SOME COOLER INLAND SPOTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO THE MID 30S PRIOR TO 10 PM. WE TWEAKED SOME LOW TEMPS HERE AND THERE BUT OVERALL RANGES LOOK GOOD. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A FEW OBSERVATIONS REPORTING SOME LIGHT MIST/FOG BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY SUGGEST FOG WOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND MAINLY JUST SHALLOW GROUND FOG. WE CONSIDERED ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE FORECAST BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS FOR SOME OF INLAND RURAL LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WINDOW OF RAINFALL CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL START THE DAY... CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFFSHORE AS AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD HAVE SUNSHINE. CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE DAY AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC/COASTAL AREAS OF SC. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO LIGHT EASTERLY LATE. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS...MAINLY I-95 EASTWARD. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SC ZONES WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR THE CHARLESTON COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT COMBINED WITH FULL SUNSHINE. SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. GIVEN THE RIDGE WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE AREA...CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES STILL COLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WELL INLAND...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY...ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL FORCE THE SURFACE RIDGE TO ELONGATE EAST-WEST AND BE CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S. GIVEN THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS END UP RAISING MAX TEMPS A BIT MORE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST BRINGS ABOUT TWO MAIN POINTS OF INTEREST. THE FIRST COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT AS THERE ISN/T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE BULK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH. THERE MAY END UP BEING ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS DRY MUCH LIKE THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE SECOND POINT OF INTEREST COMES AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS FEATURE A MUCH MORE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME PERIOD WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AND EVENTUALLY TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SUCH A SCENARIO COULD BE QUITE WET...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW AND ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD... BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAN ANY CIGS WILL OCCUR AFTER 18Z SATURDAY AND THEY SHOULD BE VFR. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB VFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS QUITE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG OCCUR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PREVAILING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... OVERNIGHT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BY MORNING. OUR EVENING UPDATE JUST LOWERED SOME INITIAL SEA HEIGHT VALUES AND TWEAKED WIND DIRECTIONS. A SURGE LATER TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 12-18 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE. SEAS WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2 TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS 20-60 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURGE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATER BY LATE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH EAST AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON MONDAY THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THEN DECREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY. . && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...RFM LONG TERM...BSH AVIATION... MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1007 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 .UPDATE... THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY COLDER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY WARM UP AGAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES BRINGS LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 UPDATE... CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS ARE INDICATING CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...LOWERED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH WINDS IN THE 4 TO 8 MPH RANGE AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CLOUDS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE NEAR TERM AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATER THIS EVENING. RAP AND HRRR BOTH SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE 925-950MB LAYER AFTER 02-03Z OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA... GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY. BOTH THE NAM AND OP GFS HINT AT THIS AS WELL. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST AS A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH RAP/HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A SHARP INVERSION PRESENT AT 1000FT AND LOWER. ONE MITIGATING FACTOR THAT WOULD KEEP ANY FOG LIMITED IS THE INCREASE IN SURFACE FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL KEEP ANY FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR INTO THE EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS...WITH WARM ADVECTION COMMENCING AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH...EXPECT LOWS TO OCCUR MOST AREAS BY LATE EVENING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THEREAFTER. ENDED UP SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RETURNING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S BY 12Z. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SATURDAY STANDS A STRONG CHANCE TO BE THE PICK DAY OF THE MONTH SO FAR...DESPITE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. 40-50KT 850MB JET WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ENSURE A BREEZY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION WITH SUSTAINEDS NEAR 20MPH AND GUSTS INTO THE 30-35MPH RANGE. FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS STARTING TO ZERO IN ON A BAND OF PRECIP SWINGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STARTING FIRST AS RAIN THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS LOW LEVEL THERMALS BECOME SUPPORTIVE. STILL THINK SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS FAVOR HANGING ONTO LOWER CLOUDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY WITH SLOW CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS QUICKLY BACK IN BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION RESUMING. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS...CONSIDERING TEMP PERFORMANCE SO FAR TODAY AND EXPECTATION OF A LOT OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY...PREFER LEANING CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAVMOS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MANY. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUDS. UNDERCUT AGGRESSIVE MAVMOS FOR MONDAY AS WELL... BUT STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPS RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TOOK MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 219 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS. A COUPLE OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM. MOISTURE/FORCING ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH EITHER FEATURE...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW. THE FIRST ONE ALSO HAS A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER...SO LIMITED ANY FREEZING RAIN TO THE NORTH HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY TUESDAY...WITH JUST RAIN OTHERWISE. COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ON THURSDAY. AGAIN WITH LIMITED FORCING/MOISTURE JUST WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK COOL ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW. THERE WILL BE A GENERAL COOLING TREND DURING THE EXTENDED AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN USA. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170000Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 930 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE 04Z-14Z IN OUTLYING TAF SITES...OTHERWISE VFR. SATELLITE AND WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATED CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREAS WITH SOME MID CLOUDS TO THE NORTH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST. MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG LATE EVENING ON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME LATER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE FOG THREAT. ON SATURDAY MAIN ISSUE WILL BE MODERATE WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY EVENING CAUSING A LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN/TDUD SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...JH VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
930 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 .UPDATE... AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY COLDER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY WARM UP AGAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES BRINGS LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. THESE WERE SHIFTING EAST AND EXPECT THEM TO BE LARGELY OUT OF DELAWARE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES BY 21-22Z. SKIES WERE SUNNY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS WE ENJOY OUR WARMEST DAY IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS FOR MANY. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH AT 20Z. CLOUDS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE NEAR TERM AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATER THIS EVENING. RAP AND HRRR BOTH SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE 925-950MB LAYER AFTER 02-03Z OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA... GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY. BOTH THE NAM AND OP GFS HINT AT THIS AS WELL. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST AS A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH RAP/HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A SHARP INVERSION PRESENT AT 1000FT AND LOWER. ONE MITIGATING FACTOR THAT WOULD KEEP ANY FOG LIMITED IS THE INCREASE IN SURFACE FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL KEEP ANY FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR INTO THE EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS...WITH WARM ADVECTION COMMENCING AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH...EXPECT LOWS TO OCCUR MOST AREAS BY LATE EVENING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THEREAFTER. ENDED UP SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RETURNING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S BY 12Z. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SATURDAY STANDS A STRONG CHANCE TO BE THE PICK DAY OF THE MONTH SO FAR...DESPITE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. 40-50KT 850MB JET WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ENSURE A BREEZY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION WITH SUSTAINEDS NEAR 20MPH AND GUSTS INTO THE 30-35MPH RANGE. FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS STARTING TO ZERO IN ON A BAND OF PRECIP SWINGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STARTING FIRST AS RAIN THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS LOW LEVEL THERMALS BECOME SUPPORTIVE. STILL THINK SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS FAVOR HANGING ONTO LOWER CLOUDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY WITH SLOW CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS QUICKLY BACK IN BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION RESUMING. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS...CONSIDERING TEMP PERFORMANCE SO FAR TODAY AND EXPECTATION OF A LOT OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY...PREFER LEANING CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAVMOS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MANY. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUDS. UNDERCUT AGGRESSIVE MAVMOS FOR MONDAY AS WELL... BUT STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPS RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TOOK MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 219 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS. A COUPLE OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM. MOISTURE/FORCING ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH EITHER FEATURE...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW. THE FIRST ONE ALSO HAS A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER...SO LIMITED ANY FREEZING RAIN TO THE NORTH HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY TUESDAY...WITH JUST RAIN OTHERWISE. COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ON THURSDAY. AGAIN WITH LIMITED FORCING/MOISTURE JUST WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK COOL ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW. THERE WILL BE A GENERAL COOLING TREND DURING THE EXTENDED AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN USA. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170000Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 930 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE 04Z-14Z IN OUTLYING TAF SITES...OTHERWISE VFR. SATELLITE AND WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATED CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREAS WITH SOME MID CLOUDS TO THE NORTH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST. MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG LATE EVENING ON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME LATER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE FOG THREAT. ON SATURDAY MAIN ISSUE WILL BE MODERATE WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY EVENING CAUSING A LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...JH VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
538 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2015 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 312 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 Recent water vapor imagery and RAP analysis showing a weak upper wave moving east across South Dakota and Nebraska, with a much stronger wave exiting the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. Deep west to southwest flow has resulted over Kansas with dry and warm lower tropospheric conditions and breezy winds dominating. With fairly progressive flow in place, the upper waves make quick progress through the region through Saturday afternoon. The first wave brings some high clouds through this evening, but more and somewhat deeper cloud approaches late tonight and exits Saturday afternoon with the stronger wave. Rather strong lift exits ahead of this wave, but the still dry mid to lower levels should keep precipitation in check. Wind speeds diminish a bit this evening but pick up again Saturday as deeper mixing occurs in strong cold air advection around 850mb. Winds aloft don`t quite support Advisory levels but could be close in the north and west. The mixing and only modified airmass should still allow temps to reach into the 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 312 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 For Saturday night through Monday, models continue to show a warm and dry weather pattern with northwest flow aloft and low level trajectories either from the southwest or west. This low level pattern does not favor very good moisture return. Therefore think precip chances are pretty close to zero. Have again trended temps warmer for Sunday and Monday. Given today`s temps, think there is a chance the forecast for Sunday may be a little to cool. Although Models do not show 925MB temps quite as warm as today. Therefore have kept highs generally around 60. A frontal boundary should move through the area late Monday. At this time, think it will be late enough in the day that temps warm into the mid and upper 50s. Monday night through Friday should see a cooling trend as the models transition the pattern from northwest flow to more of a broad cyclonic split flow aloft, as energy tries to dig southwest into AZ and NM. There should be weak perturbations move across the forecast area through this period. However with a modified ridge of high pressure from the Pacific northwest building into the central plains, there is not much opportunity for moisture to advect north. The ECMWF remains the only solution to bring very light QPF into parts of the area, and it has not had the best run to run continuity of late. Therefore have maintained a dry forecast through the end of the week. Reinforcing surges of high pressure from the north and northwest should keep temps closer to climo with lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 532 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. The low-level jet will increase this evening, thus low-level wind shear will be possible at all terminals from 3Z through 10Z SAT. light southerly winds will shift to the northwest at 11 to 15 KTS with higher gusts by 16Z SAT and continue int the afternoon hours of Saturday. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM...Wolters AVIATION...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
425 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 220 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015 AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS SOME CIRRUS PASSES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES REACHED THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST BUT QUITE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH WITH SOME STATIONS REPORTING CALM WINDS. ALOFT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS GLIDING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN THE CIRRUS. ANOTHER STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED OVER MONTANA AND IDAHO. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CALM WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH NO PRECIPITATION. SKIES SHOULD CLOUD UP LATER TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN DISTURBANCE SPREADS IN FROM WYOMING. THIS RESULTS IN NEAR-STAGNANT TEMPERATURES THAT FALL EXTREMELY SLOW AND REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (NORMALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS). BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE SUNRISE...THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTHWEST FORCES A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SEVERAL GFS...WRF ARW...WRF NMM AND HRRR RUNS. WINDS WEAKEN SOME FURTHER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SPEED ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING IS REALIZED. ALOFT...WINDS HAVE WEAKENED FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE BUT STILL SHOW A 50-60 KT JET 1 KM ABOVE THE SURFACE. INTERESTING ITEM TO NOTE IS THAT THE STRONGEST JET OF WINDS SHOULD SLIDE FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. THIS MEANS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED GENERALLY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER...IF NOT EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME MIXING DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY STRONG WITH FORECAST LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-7 C/KM. OVERALL LOWERED WIND SPEEDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES BUT STRONGEST WIND GUSTS MAY STILL EXCEED 40 KNOTS...OR 46 MPH. ANOTHER NOTE ABOUT TOMORROW`S WINDS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CONCERNS THAT SOME BLOWING DUST MAY BE OBSERVED. CHECKED THE SOIL MOISTURE THIS MORNING AND IT IS QUITE WET. PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS INDICATES THAT WE HAVE BEEN AROUND 0.5" TO 1.0" ABOVE NORMAL. THIS DOES NOT EVEN INCLUDE THE WIDESPREAD 0.75" TO 1.00" RAINS RECEIVED ON DECEMBER 14TH...2014. AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS INDICATES ONE PLUME OF DUST TOMORROW AROUND HILL CITY...KANSAS. WHILE THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE...THE DUST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE BLOWING DUST ANYWHERE ELSE SO IT IS QUITE ISOLATED. BY THIS REASONING AND THAT WE ARE FORECASTING LOWER WIND SPEEDS OVER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS WITH BLOWING DUST...HAVE REMOVED BLOWING DUST FROM THE FORECAST. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 1231 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015 THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SERIES OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS BRINGING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY BUT MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO WITH THE PLAINS DRY PROBABLY DUE TO LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECT. MODELS SHOW A BIT MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM SO WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DRY WITH LACK OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE FOR LIFT. BY WEDNESDAY MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWFALL BUT THE GFS DRY...SO WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIM TO NONE IN THAT PATTERN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 421 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL NEAR 09Z WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. INITIALLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. AFTER THE SUN COMES UP AND MIXING OCCURS...THEN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KMCK. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE NEAR THE END OF THIS PERIOD. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRH LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1020 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODIFY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 1015 PM UPDATE: STREAMERS OF LIGHT SNOW COMING OFF THE ST. LAWRENCE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT ESE. A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS AS SEEN ON THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY STRETCHES FROM QUEBEC ESE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE BAND OF CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE LATEST RAP AND NAM12 BY EARLY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW ALREADY BELOW ZERO AND W/WINDS 10-20 MPH, WIND CHILLS ARE AT -30F. FURTHER S, TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. THE TEMPS WILL DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE, ADJUSTED THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS DOWN A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS READINGS ARE ALREADY BELOW WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AT 03Z. A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BRINGING A FRESH ROUND OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE HIGH BUILD TO THE EAST SAT NGT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE THE WEST OF MAINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SUN MRNG. LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/DP/WND/POP. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT FOR WNDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONT TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FAST RETREAT OF ARCTIC AIR N OF THE REGION SUN MORN...WITH FLURRIES AND OCNL LGT SN THRU THE DAY. TEMPS WARMING ABV FZG OVR DOWNEAST SITES WILL RESULT IN OCNL LGT SN TO CHG TO LGT RN DURING THE AFTN HRS. OTHERWISE...THE DTMNSTC 12Z GFS AND CANGEM WERE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW FURTHER W THRU NRN ME. DESPITE THIS...THE LATEST NAM MODEL RUNS AND ENSMS OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WERE STILL FURTHER E WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS...WE RAISED OVRNGT LOWS A LITTLE FOR SUN NGT AS WELL AS HIGH TEMPS ON MON. THE RESULTANT FCST HRLY TEMP TREND THRU THESE PDS ALLOWS US TO KEEP A SN TO MIX OVR NW ME AND A MIX TO RN OVR NE AND CNTRL PTNS OF OUR REGION. ELSEWHERE...MSLY RN DOMINATES WITH THIS EVENT...WITH STEADY PRECIP CHGNG BACK TO SN SHWRS ACROSS THE N AND MIXED RN/SN SHWRS OVR CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE MON AFTN INTO MON NGT. OUR PRELIM SN TOTALS SHOWS A MX OF 6 INCHES OF SN (WITH SOME PL) ALG THE NW ME/ERN QB BORDER...WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY TO THE E...BUT NOT AS FAST ATTM AS SUGGESTED BY WPC GUIDANCE ATTM... IN THE EVENT THE TRACK OF THE SFC...WHICH WE ARE STILL NOT CERTAIN...SHOWN BY THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS TAKES A JOG BACK TO THE E OVR FUTURE MODEL RUNS. TAKING LITERALLY...THE 12Z GFS MODEL RUN SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG ENOUGH WINDS WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LLVL JET FOR WIND HDLNS OVR DOWNEAST AREAS SUN NGT INTO MON MORN AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY ENOUGH RAIN FOR A FLOOD WATCH FOR RVR ICE MOVEMENT ALONG AND JUST E OF OUR HIGHLANDS. GIVEN THAT THE 12Z GFS MODEL RUN IS CURRENTLY THE FURTHEST W OPNL MODEL RUN WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON THESE TYPES OF HDLNS FOR NOW TO SEE HOW STABLE THE MODELS WILL BE WITH THIS STORM TRACK. TOTAL QPF WE CURRENTLY SHOW RUNS FROM ARND AN INCH FROM THE DOWNEAST COAST AND FAR N TO 1.75 INCHES OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS. SN SHWRS WILL CONT MSLY OVR THE N MON NGT AS MODERATELY COLD ARCTIC AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE FA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SCT SN SHWRS WILL CONT ACROSS THE N INTO TUE AS TEMPS RETURN TO AOB NORMAL FOR HI TEMPS. MSLY FAIR WITH AOB NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONT TUE NGT THRU FRI AS INTERMITTENT WEAK UPPER LVL S/WVS FROM QB BRING INTERVALS OF CLDNSS AND OCNL FLURRIES. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE EARLY TONIGHT...OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES EXCEPT FVE EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER AROUND 9 PM ONLY HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS TOMORROW EVNG ACROSS NRN MAINE...CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MVFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER MIDNGT FOR FVE...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD. . SHORT TERM: IFR TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN OCNL LGT SN SUN AND SUN EVE WILL LOWER TO LIFR TO IFR IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN RN FROM LATE SUN NGT THRU ERLY MON AFTN. RN WILL END AS SN SHWRS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER MON AFT AND MON NGT WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IMPROVING TO MVFR. MVFR CLGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NRN TAF SITES TUE AND WED WHILE DOWNEAST SITES BECOME VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING AND A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE AN SCA FOR SEA TOMORROW EVNG. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS TOMORROW MORNING CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE...AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT TO LONG TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVR OUR WATERS SUNDAY INTO SUN EVE WITH SRLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE APCHG LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES. AFTWRDS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC MON JUST N OF THE WATERS...THEN INCREASE FROM THE WSW TO NEAR SCA LVLS MON NGT AND TUES AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES...AS WV HTS REMAIN AOA 5 FT...MEANING AN XTNDED SCA IS LIKELY AFT THE GALE PD INTO MID WEEK...SPCLY OVR OUTER MZS050-051. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017- 031-032. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
943 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... DRY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THRU SRN VA LATE THIS EVENG...WHILE HI PRES WAS CENTERED OVR THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT WILL DROP S OF THE REGION OVRNGT INTO SAT MORNG...WHILE HI PRES SLIDES INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. NNE WINDS WILL USHER EVEN DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...AS THE SKY WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR TO MID 20S ACRS THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA...TO THE UPR 20S TO ARND 30 ACRS SE VA AND NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE N/NW SAT MORNG...BCMG CENTERED OVR THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE MIDDAY/ERLY AFTN HRS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 40S IN THE MOST SPOTS...MID TO UPR 30S OVR THE LWR ERN SHORE. A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION SAT NGT...WITH SLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPR 30S ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES THRU THE OVRNGT HRS AS WAA AND MOISTURE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROF. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN (80% E HALF OF AREA AND 50-70% W HALF) WILL BE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUN AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS AND THE MID- LEVEL TROF NEARS THE REGION. MODEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS ALL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. THE RAIN WILL END FM W TO E SUN AFTN. WITH FAIRLY GOOD DYNAMICS...UP TO 1.0 IN RAIN IS PSBL...MAINLY OVR ERN AREAS. HI TEMPS SUN RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. CONDS DRY OUT SUN NGT AND MON AS THE TROF PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE SE STATES. CONTINUED NR-NORMAL TEMPS MON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... NR SEASONABLE CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PDS W/ MNLY ZONAL FLO ALOFT. A WK S/W TRACKS QUICKLY W-E IN ZONAL FLO ACRS THE FA (TUE NGT INTO WED). ATTM...ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LGT AND SCT AT BEST...SO WILL JUST HAVE VRB CLDS TO MCLDY THOSE PDS. BY LT IN NEXT WK...MDLS (12Z/16 GFS/ECMWF) CONTG TO HAVE SGFNT DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING PATTERN ACRS NA. BOTH ARE NOW DELAYING ANY PTNTL MOISTURE/STM FM THE SW STATES/SRN PLAINS...AND KEEPING ANY RETURN TO COLDER WX BOTTLED UP TO THE NNW OF THE RGN. WILL HANG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS THU NGT INTO FRI MRNG W/ A SECOND S/W PASSING ACRS THE RGN. HI TEMPS TUE/WED IN THE M/U40S N TO L/M50S S. HI TEMPS THU/FRI RANGING THROUGH THE 40S. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE M20S TO L30S...THEN TUE/WED/THU NGTS MNLY IN THE L/M30S. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... OBS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE SRN BORDER OF PA AT 23Z. USED RUC TO TIME THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES FROM THE NORTH LATE EVENING UP TO AROUND 1 AM AT ECG. WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AND INCREASE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPSTREAM THERE IS A CLOUD LAYER AT 4K FT THAT MAY DEVELOP AT SBY. MOISTURE AT AROUND 950 MB MAY PRODUCE SCT CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SE IN THE MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME VARIABLE...EVENTUALLY COMING AROUND TO SE LATE SATURDAY ALL UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. OUTLOOK...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF PCPN AND A FEW HOURS OF IFR. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... INITIAL SFC TROUGH CROSSING THE WATERS THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING NW AND GUSTY TO 20 TO 25 KT...ESP NRN BAY AND OCN WATERS IN FA. POLAR FNT TO CROSS THE WATERS TNGT...W/ WNDS BECOMING N AND INCRSG TO 15 TO 25 KT...MAY OCNL GUSTS TO 30 KT FOR A BRIEF PD AT ONSET OF LO LVL CAA. NNE WNDS TO WANE SAT MRNG...THEN HI PRES DRIFTS OVR THE WTRS SAT AFTN RESULTING IN WNDS SLOLY BECOMING SSE. AHEAD OF NEXT CDFNT...WNDS BECOME SSW...PSBLY INCRSG TO 15 TO 25 KT...MNLY OVR PORTIONS OF THE OCN WATERS BY SUN. GUSTY NW WNDS (AND ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS) RETURN SUN NGT...CONT THROUGH MON W/ XPCD ROUND OF LO LVL CAA. WINDSPEEDS TO DIMINISH LATE MON INTO TUE WHILE BECOMING MR WLY. SCAS ARE UP FOR ALL WATERS (XCP THE RIVERS) THROUGH LT TNGT OR SAT MRNG. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ632>634- 650-652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631- 638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...LSA MARINE...ALB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
718 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD ~1028 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVR THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A COLD FRNT NR THE PA/MD BORDER. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS PULLING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST THIS AFTN. THE COLD FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATER THIS EVENG WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS TRANSITIONING TO NLY THEN NERLY BEHIND THE FRNT. OTWS...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY WITH TEMPS NR NORMAL FOR MID JAN...LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPR 20S...LWR 30S OVR EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE N/NW SAT MORNG...BCMG CENTERED OVR THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE MIDDAY/ERLY AFTN HRS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 40S IN THE MOST SPOTS...MID TO UPR 30S OVR THE LWR ERN SHORE. A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION SAT NGT...WITH SLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPR 30S ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES THRU THE OVRNGT HRS AS WAA AND MOISTURE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROF. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN (80% E HALF OF AREA AND 50-70% W HALF) WILL BE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUN AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS AND THE MID- LEVEL TROF NEARS THE REGION. MODEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS ALL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. THE RAIN WILL END FM W TO E SUN AFTN. WITH FAIRLY GOOD DYNAMICS...UP TO 1.0 IN RAIN IS PSBL...MAINLY OVR ERN AREAS. HI TEMPS SUN RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. CONDS DRY OUT SUN NGT AND MON AS THE TROF PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE SE STATES. CONTINUED NR-NORMAL TEMPS MON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... NR SEASONABLE CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PDS W/ MNLY ZONAL FLO ALOFT. A WK S/W TRACKS QUICKLY W-E IN ZONAL FLO ACRS THE FA (TUE NGT INTO WED). ATTM...ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LGT AND SCT AT BEST...SO WILL JUST HAVE VRB CLDS TO MCLDY THOSE PDS. BY LT IN NEXT WK...MDLS (12Z/16 GFS/ECMWF) CONTG TO HAVE SGFNT DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING PATTERN ACRS NA. BOTH ARE NOW DELAYING ANY PTNTL MOISTURE/STM FM THE SW STATES/SRN PLAINS...AND KEEPING ANY RETURN TO COLDER WX BOTTLED UP TO THE NNW OF THE RGN. WILL HANG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS THU NGT INTO FRI MRNG W/ A SECOND S/W PASSING ACRS THE RGN. HI TEMPS TUE/WED IN THE M/U40S N TO L/M50S S. HI TEMPS THU/FRI RANGING THROUGH THE 40S. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE M20S TO L30S...THEN TUE/WED/THU NGTS MNLY IN THE L/M30S. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... OBS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE SRN BORDER OF PA AT 23Z. USED RUC TO TIME THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES FROM THE NORTH LATE EVENING UP TO AROUND 1 AM AT ECG. WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AND INCREASE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPSTREAM THERE IS A CLOUD LAYER AT 4K FT THAT MAY DEVELOP AT SBY. MOISTURE AT AROUND 950 MB MAY PRODUCE SCT CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SE IN THE MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME VARIABLE...EVENTUALLY COMING AROUND TO SE LATE SATURDAY ALL UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. OUTLOOK...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF PCPN AND A FEW HOURS OF IFR. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... INITIAL SFC TROUGH CROSSING THE WATERS THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING NW AND GUSTY TO 20 TO 25 KT...ESP NRN BAY AND OCN WATERS IN FA. POLAR FNT TO CROSS THE WATERS TNGT...W/ WNDS BECOMING N AND INCRSG TO 15 TO 25 KT...MAY OCNL GUSTS TO 30 KT FOR A BRIEF PD AT ONSET OF LO LVL CAA. NNE WNDS TO WANE SAT MRNG...THEN HI PRES DRIFTS OVR THE WTRS SAT AFTN RESULTING IN WNDS SLOLY BECOMING SSE. AHEAD OF NEXT CDFNT...WNDS BECOME SSW...PSBLY INCRSG TO 15 TO 25 KT...MNLY OVR PORTIONS OF THE OCN WATERS BY SUN. GUSTY NW WNDS (AND ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS) RETURN SUN NGT...CONT THROUGH MON W/ XPCD ROUND OF LO LVL CAA. WINDSPEEDS TO DIMINISH LATE MON INTO TUE WHILE BECOMING MR WLY. SCAS ARE UP FOR ALL WATERS (XCP THE RIVERS) THROUGH LT TNGT OR SAT MRNG. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ632>634- 650-652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631- 638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...LSA MARINE...ALB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015 WE`VE GOT A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. THIS SETUP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT DROPPING THROUGH MINNESOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY. THE BAND OF CLOUDS ALREADY MENTION WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO FILL IN ANY HOLES IN OUR EASTERN AND NORTHERN CWA. IN OUR SOUTHWEST...SKY COVER WILL BE MORE QUESTIONABLE...SO WENT AHEAD WITH INSERTING FOG INTO THE FORECAST THERE FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. UNDER THE MAIN STRATUS DECK...COULD FORESEE SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE PERIPHERY AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE BUMPED UP SOME AS CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDY SKIES HAS INCREASED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. FOR FRIDAY...STILL EXPECTING CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...AS OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY BEGINS MOVING EAST BACK TOWARDS US AS A WARM FRONT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015 MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE ARE A COUPLE SYSTEMS PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA TO WATCH ON SATURDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE SHOULD HAVE RELATIVELY LITTLE IMPACT WITH THE BULK OF THE QPF REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE WARM-UP AND...P-TYPE IS A QUESTION ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS EVENTUALLY AFFECTING ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE ONLY REASONABLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE COMING DAYS OCCURS ON SATURDAY WITH A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE DAKOTAS BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AND THERE IS ALSO A LEADING SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSVERSE THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE 0C AT 850MB BY 12 SATURDAY. IN FACT...850MB TEMPS WILL BE 1-2C WARMER THAN TODAY AND WE GOT INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S TODAY IN MANY LOCATIONS. SATURDAY MORNING/NORTH OF I-94 IS THE MOSTLY LIKELY TIME AND LOCATION TO SEE A LITTLE SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX. EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND ANY VERY LIGHT SNOW/ICE ACCUMS WILL MELT. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN IN THE LOWER 40S. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG BL WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ADVECTION IS STRONG ONLY BECAUSE WE ARE STARTING SO WARM SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE INCOMING AIR MASS ISN`T OVERLY COLD. THERE IS...HOWEVER...35-40KTS BELOW 900MB...SO SATURDAY MORNING WILL FEEL MUCH BETTER THAN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF MN. ANY PRECIP THAT HAPPENS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL MN ON SATURDAY WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW GIVEN HOW FAST THE TEMP PROFILE COOLS. AGAIN...NOT MUCH LIQUID IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS NORTH AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST THU JAN 15 2015 A COMPLICATED FORECAST AHEAD AS THE EXACT LOCATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE KEY IN CONDITIONS FOR YOUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...AS WILL A DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE RAP INDICATED SIGNIFICANT DRYING AT 850MB THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE AREA. A MORE SATURATED ENVIRONMENT BELOW THIS LEVEL IS INDICATED...BUT AM OPTIMISTIC THAT THE MODEL IS OVERDOING THE NEAR GROUND MOISTURE AND VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AXN WHERE A DECK OF IFR STRATUS LINGERS AND LOOKS TO WOBBLE NEAR AXN FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SPEED OF THE FRONT HAS SLOWED A BIT...SO ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT BY THE TIME IT STALLS OUT TOMORROW WILL BE FROM NEAR AXN TOWARD RGK. NAM INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR --S ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS BOUNDARY. KMSP...FIRST FEW HOURS OF MVFR WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF STRATUS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT EXPECTING CIGS TO POTENTIALLY BECOME VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL FILL BACK IN AND RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VCSH INTRODUCED GIVEN NAM INDICATION OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPD LONG TERM...CLF AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
825 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015 .UPDATE... UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO BEGIN AREAS OF FREEZING FOG PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. KFMN JUST WENT DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY IN FREEZING FOG. A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU... WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...459 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015... .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN/CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW THIRD TONIGHT WITH LASTING IMPACTS INTO SATURDAY MORNING...PERHAPS EVENING EARLY AFTERNOON. ONE DIFFERENCE TONIGHT VERSUS LAST NIGHT WILL BE THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD. UNSURE AT THIS TIME HOW IT WILL LIMIT LOW CIG/BR DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. WIND GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER MTN PEAKS TONIGHT AND LOOKING FOR SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. THERE COULD BE AN IMPACT TO LVS BUT NOT INDICATING HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TIME. 50 && .PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015... .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW ONE HALF MILE AND A THIN GLAZE OF ICE MAY FORM ON ROADWAYS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR AREAS ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVERNIGHT. GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND IT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN...ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. && .DISCUSSION... LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE VERY SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS NORTHWEST NM TODAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE FZFG WILL REFORM. THOUGH THERE ARE ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE HORIZON...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE SUNRISE. THE HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FZFG TO THE GRIDS AROUND FMN AND GUP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON A FZFG ADVISORY ATTM. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP NE NM OVERNIGHT...AND THOUGH THERE IS INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT FOR PRECIPITATION...MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 50KT ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. FAVORED LOCALES ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...INCLUDING CQC...WILL BE IN STORE FOR A BREEZY TO WINDY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY. ACCOMPANING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DID LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR SAT AFTN. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT QUICKLY WASHES OUT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY/WINDY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH SUN AND MON WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL SEND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN NM...THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AREAWIDE. TEMPS ON TUES WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO REALLY STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF NW FLOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES/CROSSES NM ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT...WHICH RESULTS IN THE GFS HAVING VERY LITTLE PRECIP DESPITE THE BACK DOOR FRONT REINFORCEMENT...AND THE EC SHOWING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FURTHER...THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SYSTEM ON ITS HEELS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AND MODELS ARE HAVING AN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THEM. NONETHELESS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIPITATION MID WEEK...BUT TOO SOON TO SAY HOW MUCH OR WHAT AREAS WILL BE FAVORED. STAY TUNED. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... A DRY AND RELATIVELY WARMER PATTERN HAS PREVAILED TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING. POOR VENTILATION HAS BEEN IN PLACE TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THEME INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY`S LIGHT BREEZES OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES ARE ALSO COUPLING WITH STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AND A STUBBORN LAYER OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STATE. THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE HAMPERED THE WARMING TREND IN NORTHWEST NM...BUT OTHERWISE THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE YIELDED NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. DOWNSLOPING BREEZES HAVE REALLY HELPED THE NORTHEAST WARM UP EVEN MORE...SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THESE EASTERN DOWNSLOPE AREAS ARE WHERE RH HAS DROPPED THE LOWEST...EVEN BELOW 10 PERCENT...BUT THE SNOW MELT AND LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHWESTERN NM HAVE KEPT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND RH INTACT. TONIGHT`S RECOVERY WILL BE EXCELLENT IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN...AND POOR TO FAIR IN THE NORTHEAST WITH DOWNSLOPING BREEZES STAYING ALIVE ALL NIGHT. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ENHANCE SOME OF THESE WINDS...TURNING THEM GUSTY IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVERNIGHT. A FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF NM SATURDAY MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE LITTLE CHANGE TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES. POOR VENTILATION WILL PERSIST. INTO SUNDAY NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT RELAX SOME AND A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH REDEVELOPS. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND WHAT THEY LOST ON SATURDAY...AND THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE. BY MONDAY A STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OBSERVED OVER NM AS A GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE TROUGH USHERS ANOTHER COOLER AIR MASS CLOSER TO THE STATE. SOME BETTER VENTILATION RATES ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED FOR MONDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE REDUCE WITH NEWER MODEL RUNS. THIS APPROACH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE INTO NM MONDAY NIGHT...YIELDING MUCH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A TROUGH THAT TAKES SHAPE OVER AZ AND SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WOULD SPREAD SOME HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE. THE FINER DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT ARE STILL BEING RESOLVED...BUT THIS COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD WILL CERTAINLY PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
459 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN/CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW THIRD TONIGHT WITH LASTING IMPACTS INTO SATURDAY MORNING...PERHAPS EVENING EARLY AFTERNOON. ONE DIFFERENCE TONIGHT VERSUS LAST NIGHT WILL BE THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD. UNSURE AT THIS TIME HOW IT WILL LIMIT LOW CIG/BR DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. WIND GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER MTN PEAKS TONIGHT AND LOOKING FOR SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. THERE COULD BE AN IMPACT TO LVS BUT NOT INDICATING HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TIME. 50 && .PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015... .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW ONE HALF MILE AND A THIN GLAZE OF ICE MAY FORM ON ROADWAYS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR AREAS ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVERNIGHT. GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND IT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN...ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. && .DISCUSSION... LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE VERY SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS NORTHWEST NM TODAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE FZFG WILL REFORM. THOUGH THERE ARE ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE HORIZON...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE SUNRISE. THE HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FZFG TO THE GRIDS AROUND FMN AND GUP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON A FZFG ADVISORY ATTM. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP NE NM OVERNIGHT...AND THOUGH THERE IS INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT FOR PRECIPITATION...MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 50KT ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. FAVORED LOCALES ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...INCLUDING CQC...WILL BE IN STORE FOR A BREEZY TO WINDY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY. ACCOMPANING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DID LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR SAT AFTN. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT QUICKLY WASHES OUT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY/WINDY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH SUN AND MON WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL SEND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN NM...THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AREAWIDE. TEMPS ON TUES WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO REALLY STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF NW FLOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES/CROSSES NM ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT...WHICH RESULTS IN THE GFS HAVING VERY LITTLE PRECIP DESPITE THE BACK DOOR FRONT REINFORCEMENT...AND THE EC SHOWING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FURTHER...THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SYSTEM ON ITS HEELS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AND MODELS ARE HAVING AN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THEM. NONETHELESS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIPITATION MID WEEK...BUT TOO SOON TO SAY HOW MUCH OR WHAT AREAS WILL BE FAVORED. STAY TUNED. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... A DRY AND RELATIVELY WARMER PATTERN HAS PREVAILED TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING. POOR VENTILATION HAS BEEN IN PLACE TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THEME INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY`S LIGHT BREEZES OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES ARE ALSO COUPLING WITH STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AND A STUBBORN LAYER OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STATE. THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE HAMPERED THE WARMING TREND IN NORTHWEST NM...BUT OTHERWISE THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE YIELDED NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. DOWNSLOPING BREEZES HAVE REALLY HELPED THE NORTHEAST WARM UP EVEN MORE...SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THESE EASTERN DOWNSLOPE AREAS ARE WHERE RH HAS DROPPED THE LOWEST...EVEN BELOW 10 PERCENT...BUT THE SNOW MELT AND LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHWESTERN NM HAVE KEPT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND RH INTACT. TONIGHT`S RECOVERY WILL BE EXCELLENT IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN...AND POOR TO FAIR IN THE NORTHEAST WITH DOWNSLOPING BREEZES STAYING ALIVE ALL NIGHT. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ENHANCE SOME OF THESE WINDS...TURNING THEM GUSTY IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVERNIGHT. A FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF NM SATURDAY MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE LITTLE CHANGE TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES. POOR VENTILATION WILL PERSIST. INTO SUNDAY NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT RELAX SOME AND A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH REDEVELOPS. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND WHAT THEY LOST ON SATURDAY...AND THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE. BY MONDAY A STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OBSERVED OVER NM AS A GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE TROUGH USHERS ANOTHER COOLER AIR MASS CLOSER TO THE STATE. SOME BETTER VENTILATION RATES ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED FOR MONDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE REDUCE WITH NEWER MODEL RUNS. THIS APPROACH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE INTO NM MONDAY NIGHT...YIELDING MUCH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A TROUGH THAT TAKES SHAPE OVER AZ AND SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WOULD SPREAD SOME HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE. THE FINER DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT ARE STILL BEING RESOLVED...BUT THIS COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD WILL CERTAINLY PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
300 PM EST THU JAN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS EARLY INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS REACHED ALABAMA AND CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AROUND 06 UTC FRIDAY. THE CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS JUST WEST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WITH GEORGIA. THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS SHOWING THE BEST LIFT IS AROUND 00 UTC IN OUR AREA. THE LATEST HRRR IS NOT AS OPTIMISTIC ON WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT IT IS SHOWING THE BETTER COVERAGE IN GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG AREAS. WILL KEEP A 50 TO 70% POP OVERNIGHT BUT THIS WILL BE FOR LIGHT RAIN. THE QPF TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE OF WINDS OVERNIGHT...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERCAST ALL NIGHT THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE MID 30 WITH UPPER 30S ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY AND REMAIN SO INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH MID TO UPPER 50S...PERHAPS 60 SOUTH...ON SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 WITH MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GO DOWNHILL AS AN APPROACHING H5 SHORT WAVE INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT TO BRING CLOUDS AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THIS IS A SCENARIO WHERE WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE OVERNIGHT IF THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES ASHORE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WAVE TO CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IT MAY BE TOO EARLY IN THE DAY FOR MUCH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP SO WHILE SHOWERS LOOK A GOOD BET THUNDER MAY BE HARD TO COME BY. COOL AND DRY ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DAY OF SUN TUESDAY WITH SOME RECOVERY IN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO LITTLE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES. MOISTURE MAY BE STREAMING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...THE STRATUS DECK FINALLY BEGAN ERODING THIS MORNING... AND BY 18-19Z EXPECT VFR AT ALL THE COASTAL SITES. THE INCREASING CIRRUS HAS HELPED MAINTAIN IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT BY ISSUANCE TIME CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VRBL THROUGH THE DAY...GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PRODUCING -RA AND TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS AROUND MIDNIGHT. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS... DO NOT ANTICIPATE PERSISTENT IFR OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW AOB 10 KT AND SUNNY SKIES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR FRI AND SAT. RAIN AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE ON SUN. VFR ON MON AND TUE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM...LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BLOWING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AS A UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEA HEIGHTS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET WITH A FEW 4 FOOTERS 15 TO 20 MILES OFF THE POINT OF CAPE FEAR. WITH THE INCREASE IN THE WINDS THE SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH MORE 4 FOOTERS 15 TO 20 MILES OFF THE COAST FROM FRYING PAN NORTHWARD AND IN MOST SOUTHWEST PORTION OF AMZ256. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND VEER TO SE TO S SATURDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WILL RUN 3 TO 4 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH 1 TO 2 FOOTERS ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO SHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER WINDS TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...5 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE AT 20 NM OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PREFRONTAL FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY TO THE POINT WHERE ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. THE POST-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE STRONGER FLOW AND THE ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE DUE TO WINDS EVEN AS THE ABRUPT TURN TO OFFSHORE PUSHES THE LARGEST SEAS OUT OF THE 20NM MARKER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ON MONDAY KEEPING THE WINDS OFFSHORE BUT WITH A MUCH LESSER GRADIENT. THE FLOW WILL ALSO ACQUIRE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT LATER IN THE DAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST. LIGHT SWRLY FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
100 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 955 PM WEDNESDAY... STILL SEEING AREAS OF (FREEZING) DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL ABOUT 4-5K FT DEEP (NO 00Z/15TH KMHX RAOB). REGIONAL RAOBS SHOW NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION AT 925MB...WHERE DRYING HAS CAUSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS TO SCATTER OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. HERE...TEMPS ARE DROPPING MORE QUICKLY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE GREATEST. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...MORE TOWARD 08-09Z AND MAINLY WEST OF US 1. THE DRIZZLE IN THE EAST WILL COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE STRATUS THINS A BIT...AND TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF AN GLAZING OF ICE THIS EVENING...AND NONE HERE AT THE NWS...MANY SECONDARY ROADS ARE STILL WET ACCORDING TO LAW ENFORCEMENT. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE THROUGH MID MORNING...ROUGHLY TO PERSON COUNTY TO CUMBERLAND COUNTY AND EAST. HOWEVER...IF WIDESPREAD FOG DOES DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED IMPACTS FROM FREEZING FOG BY THE MORNING COMMUTE. WILL MONITOR THIS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY... A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US THURSDAY NIGHT. BETTER GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A BRIEF GLANCING SHOT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (THU 21Z TO 06Z FRIDAY)COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WITH LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS AS FCST SOUNDINGS HOLD ON TO CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NE TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 SOUTH. SKIES WILL ABRUPTLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS 30 TO 35...COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY WILL BEGIN WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE AREA...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDING EAST TOWARDS THE REGION... WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST UNTIL SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 50 DEGREES NORTH TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTH...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMTH BY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE SOME...WITH LOW/MID 30S EXPECTED. SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE THROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN PROGGED TO QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEPER THROUGH AND THEREFORE RESULTS IN A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP OVER OUR AREA (AS THE GFS KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP OVER FAR EASTERN NC/OFFSHORE). FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY... BEFORE DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 100 AM THURSDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: LIFR CEILINGS AND FOG WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR BY NOON AND VFR THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (00-06Z FRI) AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FRIDAY MORNING (12Z FRI) AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST... RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. -VINCENT && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
354 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 355 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LOW CLOUDS...FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND STRONG WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE INDICATES IFR STRATUS OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS BAND SPREADING SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST ITERATION OF THE RAP BROUGHT THE STRATUS THROUGH BISMARCK BUT JUST EAST OF WILLISTON. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KMOT AND KJMS THIS EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS TREND OF FLURRIES IN THE BAND OF STRATUS. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS. LOW LEVEL OMEGA ALSO REMAINS FROM AROUND MINOT TO JAMESTOWN AND WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS BACK NORTH AND EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW STRATUS ENDS UP TONIGHT WILL BE A BIG DETERMINANT OF TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 40S WHILE THE NORTH CENTRAL NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS MIGHT REMAIN ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE BORDER...BUT KEPT MAINLY DRY TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WHICH REMAINS IN THE DRY SECTOR OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THUS MAIN PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AND/OR SNOW. WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THE MAIN HAZARD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG WINDS. THE STRONGEST BURST OF WINDS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WEST...AND DURING THE DAY CENTRAL. STRONG FALL/RISE PRESSURE COUPLET WILL AID WINDS DURING THE MORNING WEST BUT THIS IS TYPICALLY A TOUGH TIME TO GET STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FALL/RISE COUPLET MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY WHICH SHOULD HELP AID THE ALREADY STRONG GRADIENT WINDS. THE COUPLET DOES WEAKEN THOUGH AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME THINK IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WIND HIGHLIGHTS. ALTHOUGH THINK ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH WIND CRITERIA. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR NOW AND CONTINUE THE MENTION IN THE HWO. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 355 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015 SATURDAY NIGHT THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW IS OFF TO OUR EAST...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION - MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW - SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT TRAVERSES THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ARE IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES...BUT IN GENERAL THEY DEPICT A WESTERN RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND GENERAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A GENERAL COOLING TREND FROM HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY...COOLING TO THE TEENS AND 20S BY WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE DURING THIS TIME WILL LEAD TO SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OFF AND ON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 355 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015 MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN KMOT AND KJMS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT FLURRIES AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO KMOT-KJMS...LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SLIGHT SHIFT WEST COULD CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS IN KISN/KBIS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL OUTPUT AND UPDATE FUTURE TAFS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1159 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015 LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF STRATUS ALONG A 925MB-850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA. THE RAP13 AND HRRR 925MB RH/CIG FORECAST EXPAND THIS STRATUS SOUTHEAST TO NEAR/ALONG A MINOT TO JAMESTOWN LINE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS HANDLED WELL. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENS/TIGHTENS UP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH IT. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS WILL INDUCE WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED/BELOW FREEZING LAYER POSSIBLY CONDUCIVE TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN. WILL LOOK MORE INTO THIS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERNIGHT UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015 NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE 01-02 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE THE TREND OF STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA OVERTAKING NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ALL OBSERVATIONS WITH PRECIPITATION AS OF 03 UTC UNDER THIS DECK ARE REPORTING SNOW. HOWEVER...THE RAP AND 00 UTC NAM SOUNDINGS AT MINOT SUGGEST FOR THURSDAY THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LOW LEVEL SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C AND FEW ICE CRYSTALS ENTERING THE LAYER FROM ABOVE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL FORGO MENTION FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS EVALUATE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE...OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 2330 UTC. A MILD OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA THIS EVENING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 233 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015 PRECIPITATION ALOFT IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE GROUND INITIALLY DUE TO A MODERATELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. EVENTUALLY THE SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS TAKES OVER AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SATURATED UNDER THAT AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW AND ICE PELLETS CONTINUED TO FALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO GRIP THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WITH UPPER 20S ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THEY DO SOLAR INSULATION WILL FURTHER AID IN THE RISE OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH MODERATE WEST WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S LIKELY. THE 12 UTC NAM AND SREF ARE HINTING AT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIALLY FOG LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. PATCHY FOG MAY NEED TO BE ADDED DURING LATER SHIFTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 233 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015 THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. SATURDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE (12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/SREF) SHOW A LITTLE MORE QPF THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE BULLISH AND THE ECMWF ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY AND CONSISTENT ARE THE HIGH WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WITH TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW NEARLY EVERY DAY OR EVERY OTHER DAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015 AN AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN AND SAG SOUTH NEAR/ALONG A LINE FROM THE KMOT TERMINAL TO KJMS NEXT 24HR. THIS STRATUS ALSO REPRESENTS A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT AT KMOT AND KJMS. ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FARTHER WEST AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS NEXT 24HR. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KS SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
242 PM MST THU JAN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE REGION WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND NORMAL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE WITH COOLER TEMPS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. && .DISCUSSION... THE FOG LINGERED A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED EARLIER TODAY AS WEAK TROFING LINGERED OVER THE AREA AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT NEVER MANAGED TO MIX DOWN DRIER AIR. WITH THE TROUGH EXITING OVERNIGHT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER SUNSET. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP OFF AND IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJOR OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. EARLY AFTERNOON DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THE LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW ELEVATED DEW POINTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SAME AREAS THAT SAW THE FOG THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE COOLING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. AFTERWARDS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN FOR A STRETCH OF NICE WEATHER WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. BY MID WEEK THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO CLOSE THIS SYSTEM OFF AS IT CROSSES THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME A SURGE OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A BACK DOOR FRONT. WHILE IT IS STILL WAY OUT AT THE END OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO PLACE SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR THE DAY 7 AND 8 TIME FRAMES. && .AVIATION... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION... AND WITH NO STRONG ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR...VALLEY RADIATIONAL FOG MAY REDEVELOP IN A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND NOT NEARLY AS DENSE AS THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE TULAROSA BASIN. 12Z MET MOS SUGGESTED BRIEF 1/4SM FOR ELP DESPITE 2 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...WENT MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE TAFS. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING...AGAIN MUCH QUICKER THAN TODAY. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER FRIDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET AND DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY WITH LOWLAND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWLANDS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 20S...KEEPING MIN RH VALUES IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 800MB...WILL RESULT IN STARK DEWPOINT CONTRASTS WITH ELEVATION WITH SINGLE DIGIT AND BELOW-ZERO DEWPOINTS YIELDING MIN RH VALUES INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE 7500 FEET. THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRAZE THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER SATURDAY...WITH A VERY WEAK EASTERLY PUSH COOLING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY. A BROAD RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. VENT RATES WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK AS WARMER/DRIER AIR ALOFT LIMITS MIXING HEIGHTS AND LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 29 58 32 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA 28 59 31 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 LAS CRUCES 27 58 29 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 24 56 29 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLOUDCROFT 24 46 29 47 27 / 0 0 0 0 0 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 29 57 29 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 25 54 29 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEMING 27 58 27 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 28 55 29 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 WEST EL PASO METRO 30 59 33 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 DELL CITY 26 56 27 61 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 FORT HANCOCK 29 59 31 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 LOMA LINDA 29 53 31 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 FABENS 27 58 31 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 SANTA TERESA 27 58 29 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 WHITE SANDS HQ 28 58 32 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 JORNADA RANGE 23 56 27 58 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 HATCH 25 57 29 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 28 57 29 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 OROGRANDE 27 55 30 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 MAYHILL 25 58 33 56 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 MESCALERO 23 51 29 51 27 / 0 0 0 0 0 TIMBERON 24 51 30 53 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 WINSTON 25 55 27 56 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 HILLSBORO 29 56 31 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 SPACEPORT 24 56 28 59 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 LAKE ROBERTS 22 57 27 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 HURLEY 25 53 28 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLIFF 23 60 28 62 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 MULE CREEK 23 57 26 59 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 FAYWOOD 28 53 30 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 ANIMAS 30 57 29 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 HACHITA 25 57 27 63 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 ANTELOPE WELLS 25 58 28 64 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLOVERDALE 30 57 31 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ LANEY/HARDIMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
846 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 846 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT STALLED OUT JUST NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR EARLIER THIS EVENING IS NOW LIFTING NORTH AND EAST. CLEAR SKIES EXIST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AIDED BY A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING A VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI (SEE 17.00Z DVN/OAX SOUNDINGS). LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EVENTUALLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE ALOFT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE LATEST TRENDS. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR MASS AND STRONGER WINDS ACROSS IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...17.01Z RAP/HRRR HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...KEEPING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FARTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MN. AS A RESULT... REMOVED FOG FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. FINALLY...17.02Z SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FROM 6 TO 8 DEGREES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI...COMBINED WITH A VERY SHALLOW ELEVATED MOIST LAYER (SEE 17.00Z GRB SOUNDING)...SHOULD SQUASH ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. REMOVED FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION NORTH OF I-90. OVERALL...AN UNEVENTFUL NIGHT WEATHER-WISE WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MT/IDAHO WILL BRING SOME SENSIBLE WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG TROUGH ENERGY IN TWO PARTS...OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL MT-CANADA BORDER AND SECOND PIECE OVER SRN IDAHO. TWO FRONTS IN THE REGION CAUSING A BIT MORE CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD/FOG FORECAST TONIGHT. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY KMKT-KMSN ROUGHLY WITH COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND CLEARLY MARKED BY OVERCAST SKIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF IT. SECONDARY FRONT IS ACROSS SRN IA WITH WARM SECTOR SOUTHWEST WINDS IN A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S /NO SNOW COVER THERE/. AS THE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE. MOST OF THE WARM ADVECTION WILL GO INTO WARMING AND NOT LIFT...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING 5F. THE WEAK LIFT OF 1-3UB/S WILL BE LOCATED A BIT INTO THE LOWER BASED SATURATED LAYER FOR DZ/FZDZ POTENTIAL NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN FRONT...NEAR AND NORTH OF I-94. NCEP MODELS SUGGEST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT DEEP SATURATION...THIS WOULD BE A LIQUID LAYER AND FZDZ. HOWEVER...THE MODEL MOISTURE DEPTH IS LESSENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT /PER NCEP MODEL SOUNDINGS/ AND NEAR OR LESS THAN 1KM. THIS SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION GENERATION FROM THIS LAYER LESS PROBABLE. THUS...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FZDZ IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH MINOR PRECIPITATION IS GENERATED FROM THE MODELS...DIDNT FEEL CONFIDENT IT COULD BE GENERATED. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 4-5F RIGHT NOW AND AN INVERTED TEMPERATURE PROFILE...SOME SNOW MELT TODAY...SO AM CONCERNED WITH MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. WITH CLEAR SKIES...THINKING THERE COULD BE SOME EVENING FOG FORMATION IN THE COOLING AFTER SUNDOWN. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT OF HIGHER AND VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES WOULD TEND TO ADVECT THAT FOG NORTH OR DIMINISH IT. THE INVERSION IS ALSO STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION /VERSUS LIFT/. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASING TREND WITH FOG /HRRR AND RAP RUNS/ AND LATEST 16.15Z SREF IS SLIGHTLY LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH A LARGE 1 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY AREA OVER SWRN WI-SERN MN. BUT MODELS ARE ALSO BIASED TOWARD SNOW PACK FOG...ESPECIALLY THE SREF...AS THE FOG FOOTPRINT MATCHES THE SNOW DEPTH CLOSELY. A CHALLENGE TO KNOW HOW THAT AREA WILL BEHAVE FOR FOG BUT HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR DENSE FOG. QG FORCING SUGGESTS THE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT WILL SPLIT THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. KEPT SMALL CHANCES OF DZ/FZDZ/SN- NORTH OF I-90 SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MISS RIVER. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD CARRY INTO THE EVENING BASED ON A MIXED-BOUNDARY LAYER AND 0-1KM LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM AND 30-35 KTS AT 1 KM. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 OVERALL A NO/LOW IMPACT WEATHER PERIOD IT SEEMS. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ANOTHER WARM UP AND COOL DOWN AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT. OVERALL A TREND IS TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 556 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO 17.00Z TAFS AS SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS STALLED JUST NORTH OF KRST/KLSE AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH A 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS IA SHOULD AID IN MVFR CEILINGS JUST TO THE NORTH OF TAF AIRFIELDS TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS ANY SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN FRONTAL POSITION COULD BRING LOWER CEILINGS BACK OVER TAF SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR NOW TO REMOVE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS ALSO LESS BULLISH ON FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA...SO BACKED OFF ON LOWER VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY AT KRST. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH RESURGENCE OF LOWER CEILINGS IN ITS WAKE...SO WILL INTRODUCE CLOUD BASES AT 2500 FT AGL OR LOWER BEGINNING AT 17.16Z AT KRST AND 17.17Z AT KLSE. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY AT KRST WHERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ROGERS SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
556 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MT/IDAHO WILL BRING SOME SENSIBLE WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG TROUGH ENERGY IN TWO PARTS...OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL MT-CANADA BORDER AND SECOND PIECE OVER SRN IDAHO. TWO FRONTS IN THE REGION CAUSING A BIT MORE CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD/FOG FORECAST TONIGHT. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY KMKT-KMSN ROUGHLY WITH COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND CLEARLY MARKED BY OVERCAST SKIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF IT. SECONDARY FRONT IS ACROSS SRN IA WITH WARM SECTOR SOUTHWEST WINDS IN A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S /NO SNOW COVER THERE/. AS THE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE. MOST OF THE WARM ADVECTION WILL GO INTO WARMING AND NOT LIFT...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING 5F. THE WEAK LIFT OF 1-3UB/S WILL BE LOCATED A BIT INTO THE LOWER BASED SATURATED LAYER FOR DZ/FZDZ POTENTIAL NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN FRONT...NEAR AND NORTH OF I-94. NCEP MODELS SUGGEST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT DEEP SATURATION...THIS WOULD BE A LIQUID LAYER AND FZDZ. HOWEVER...THE MODEL MOISTURE DEPTH IS LESSENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT /PER NCEP MODEL SOUNDINGS/ AND NEAR OR LESS THAN 1KM. THIS SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION GENERATION FROM THIS LAYER LESS PROBABLE. THUS...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FZDZ IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH MINOR PRECIPITATION IS GENERATED FROM THE MODELS...DIDNT FEEL CONFIDENT IT COULD BE GENERATED. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 4-5F RIGHT NOW AND AN INVERTED TEMPERATURE PROFILE...SOME SNOW MELT TODAY...SO AM CONCERNED WITH MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. WITH CLEAR SKIES...THINKING THERE COULD BE SOME EVENING FOG FORMATION IN THE COOLING AFTER SUNDOWN. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT OF HIGHER AND VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES WOULD TEND TO ADVECT THAT FOG NORTH OR DIMINISH IT. THE INVERSION IS ALSO STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION /VERSUS LIFT/. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASING TREND WITH FOG /HRRR AND RAP RUNS/ AND LATEST 16.15Z SREF IS SLIGHTLY LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH A LARGE 1 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY AREA OVER SWRN WI-SERN MN. BUT MODELS ARE ALSO BIASED TOWARD SNOW PACK FOG...ESPECIALLY THE SREF...AS THE FOG FOOTPRINT MATCHES THE SNOW DEPTH CLOSELY. A CHALLENGE TO KNOW HOW THAT AREA WILL BEHAVE FOR FOG BUT HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR DENSE FOG. QG FORCING SUGGESTS THE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT WILL SPLIT THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. KEPT SMALL CHANCES OF DZ/FZDZ/SN- NORTH OF I-90 SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MISS RIVER. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD CARRY INTO THE EVENING BASED ON A MIXED-BOUNDARY LAYER AND 0-1KM LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM AND 30-35 KTS AT 1 KM. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 OVERALL A NO/LOW IMPACT WEATHER PERIOD IT SEEMS. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ANOTHER WARM UP AND COOL DOWN AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT. OVERALL A TREND IS TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 556 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO 17.00Z TAFS AS SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS STALLED JUST NORTH OF KRST/KLSE AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH A 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS IA SHOULD AID IN MVFR CEILINGS JUST TO THE NORTH OF TAF AIRFIELDS TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS ANY SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN FRONTAL POSITION COULD BRING LOWER CEILINGS BACK OVER TAF SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR NOW TO REMOVE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS ALSO LESS BULLISH ON FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA...SO BACKED OFF ON LOWER VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY AT KRST. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH RESURGENCE OF LOWER CEILINGS IN ITS WAKE...SO WILL INTRODUCE CLOUD BASES AT 2500 FT AGL OR LOWER BEGINNING AT 17.16Z AT KRST AND 17.17Z AT KLSE. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY AT KRST WHERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
305 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 .UPDATE... THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY COLDER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY WARM UP AGAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES BRINGS LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 UPDATE... CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS ARE INDICATING CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...LOWERED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH WINDS IN THE 4 TO 8 MPH RANGE AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CLOUDS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE NEAR TERM AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATER THIS EVENING. RAP AND HRRR BOTH SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE 925-950MB LAYER AFTER 02-03Z OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA... GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY. BOTH THE NAM AND OP GFS HINT AT THIS AS WELL. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST AS A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH RAP/HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A SHARP INVERSION PRESENT AT 1000FT AND LOWER. ONE MITIGATING FACTOR THAT WOULD KEEP ANY FOG LIMITED IS THE INCREASE IN SURFACE FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL KEEP ANY FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR INTO THE EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS...WITH WARM ADVECTION COMMENCING AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH...EXPECT LOWS TO OCCUR MOST AREAS BY LATE EVENING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THEREAFTER. ENDED UP SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RETURNING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S BY 12Z. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SATURDAY STANDS A STRONG CHANCE TO BE THE PICK DAY OF THE MONTH SO FAR...DESPITE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. 40-50KT 850MB JET WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ENSURE A BREEZY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 20MPH AND GUSTS INTO THE 30-35MPH RANGE. FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS STARTING TO ZERO IN ON A BAND OF PRECIP SWINGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STARTING FIRST AS RAIN THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS LOW LEVEL THERMALS BECOME SUPPORTIVE. STILL THINK SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS FAVOR HANGING ONTO LOWER CLOUDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY WITH SLOW CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS QUICKLY BACK IN BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION RESUMING. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS...CONSIDERING TEMP PERFORMANCE SO FAR TODAY AND EXPECTATION OF A LOT OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY...PREFER LEANING CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAVMOS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MANY. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUDS. UNDERCUT AGGRESSIVE MAVMOS FOR MONDAY AS WELL... BUT STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPS RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TOOK MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 305 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 THE EXTENDED LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF UPPER SYSTEMS DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILES INCORPORATING BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ON TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OR SNOW WITH BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS DRY-SLOTTING THE AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM ON THURSDAY COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. LOW POPS FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND LOOK OK THERE AS THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ONLY THE UPPER WAVE PROVIDING ANY KIND OF LIFT. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY LOOK GOOD BASED ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEN...EXPECT SEASONABLE READINGS THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY KLAF THROUGH 14Z. THEN VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER THAT. SATELLITE SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR REGION. MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOG MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE SOME SNOW MELTED EARLIER TODAY. WORKING AGAINST THE FOG...WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES OR BETTER. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE AS A SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AFTER SUNSET ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY EVENING CAUSING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN/TDUD SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...JH VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1145 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 .UPDATE... AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY COLDER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY WARM UP AGAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES BRINGS LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 UPDATE... CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS ARE INDICATING CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...LOWERED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH WINDS IN THE 4 TO 8 MPH RANGE AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CLOUDS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE NEAR TERM AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATER THIS EVENING. RAP AND HRRR BOTH SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE 925-950MB LAYER AFTER 02-03Z OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA... GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY. BOTH THE NAM AND OP GFS HINT AT THIS AS WELL. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST AS A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH RAP/HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A SHARP INVERSION PRESENT AT 1000FT AND LOWER. ONE MITIGATING FACTOR THAT WOULD KEEP ANY FOG LIMITED IS THE INCREASE IN SURFACE FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL KEEP ANY FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR INTO THE EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS...WITH WARM ADVECTION COMMENCING AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH...EXPECT LOWS TO OCCUR MOST AREAS BY LATE EVENING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THEREAFTER. ENDED UP SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RETURNING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S BY 12Z. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SATURDAY STANDS A STRONG CHANCE TO BE THE PICK DAY OF THE MONTH SO FAR...DESPITE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. 40-50KT 850MB JET WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ENSURE A BREEZY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 20MPH AND GUSTS INTO THE 30-35MPH RANGE. FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS STARTING TO ZERO IN ON A BAND OF PRECIP SWINGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STARTING FIRST AS RAIN THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS LOW LEVEL THERMALS BECOME SUPPORTIVE. STILL THINK SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS FAVOR HANGING ONTO LOWER CLOUDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY WITH SLOW CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS QUICKLY BACK IN BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION RESUMING. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS...CONSIDERING TEMP PERFORMANCE SO FAR TODAY AND EXPECTATION OF A LOT OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY...PREFER LEANING CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAVMOS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MANY. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUDS. UNDERCUT AGGRESSIVE MAVMOS FOR MONDAY AS WELL... BUT STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPS RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TOOK MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 219 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS. A COUPLE OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM. MOISTURE/FORCING ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH EITHER FEATURE...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW. THE FIRST ONE ALSO HAS A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER...SO LIMITED ANY FREEZING RAIN TO THE NORTH HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY TUESDAY...WITH JUST RAIN OTHERWISE. COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ON THURSDAY. AGAIN WITH LIMITED FORCING/MOISTURE JUST WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK COOL ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW. THERE WILL BE A GENERAL COOLING TREND DURING THE EXTENDED AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN USA. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY KLAF THROUGH 14Z. THEN VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER THAT. SATELLITE SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR REGION. MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOG MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE SOME SNOW MELTED EARLIER TODAY. WORKING AGAINST THE FOG...WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES OR BETTER. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE AS A SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AFTER SUNSET ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY EVENING CAUSING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN/TDUD SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...JH VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
343 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 THE 09Z SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NE ND TODAY. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW THRU GRAND ISLAND NE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG H85 WAA WAS MOVING THRU OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT AND INTO TODAY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER THRU A COLD FRONT TODAY...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AND EVEN SOME 50S THIS AFTERNOON. AN INTENSIFYING WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. COLD AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MODEL QPF IS VIRTUALLY NON EXISTENT..HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIRES MODELS...AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT WE MAY SEE SOME PRECIP TODAY WITH FROPA AND THE ADVECTION OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODEL TEMPS FOR TODAY WERE ALL TOO LOW. HAD TO INCREASE TEMPS FOR THE HIGHS TODAY. WITH STRONG H85 WAA AND WARM TEMPS YESTERDAY...THINK THAT WE WILL HAVE JUST AS WARM IF NOT WARMER TEMPS TODAY...EVEN WITH THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED TODAY. THE NAM AGAIN SEEMS TO BE INFLUENCED BY SNOW COVER AND IS TOO COLD. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SNOW FLURRIES...WE MAY SEE THEM MELT IN THE LOW LEVELS. AT THIS TIME ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN-- SEEMS POSSIBLE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 THE MAIN LONG TERM HIGHLIGHTS ARE CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND A WEAK SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT DRY AND CONTINUED MILD WEATHER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED THE CONSENSUS BLEND GUIDANCE UPWARD...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...GIVEN THE DIMINISHING SNOW COVER. THE FAR SOUTHWEST COULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 50 SUNDAY...AND IN THE LOW 50S MONDAY. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUE THEIR GENERAL CONSENSUS IN ADVERTISING A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY DEPENDING ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGHS IN THE 20S/30S...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL AFFECT DBQ AND POSSIBLY MLI NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WARM FRONT PASSES. KDVN WSR-88D VWP SAMPLING 40-45 KTS IN LOWER GATES THUS HAVE MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT WITH SFC WINDS S/SE AROUND 10-15 KTS. ON SATURDAY SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST AT OR ABOVE 10 KTS AND BECOME GUSTY... EVENTUALLY VEERING FURTHER TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT. PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDINESS WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SKIES THEN LIKELY TO TRANSITION BACK TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY EVENING. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIBBS SHORT TERM...GIBBS LONG TERM...RP KINNEY AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1144 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2015 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 312 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 Recent water vapor imagery and RAP analysis showing a weak upper wave moving east across South Dakota and Nebraska, with a much stronger wave exiting the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. Deep west to southwest flow has resulted over Kansas with dry and warm lower tropospheric conditions and breezy winds dominating. With fairly progressive flow in place, the upper waves make quick progress through the region through Saturday afternoon. The first wave brings some high clouds through this evening, but more and somewhat deeper cloud approaches late tonight and exits Saturday afternoon with the stronger wave. Rather strong lift exits ahead of this wave, but the still dry mid to lower levels should keep precipitation in check. Wind speeds diminish a bit this evening but pick up again Saturday as deeper mixing occurs in strong cold air advection around 850mb. Winds aloft don`t quite support Advisory levels but could be close in the north and west. The mixing and only modified airmass should still allow temps to reach into the 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 312 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 For Saturday night through Monday, models continue to show a warm and dry weather pattern with northwest flow aloft and low level trajectories either from the southwest or west. This low level pattern does not favor very good moisture return. Therefore think precip chances are pretty close to zero. Have again trended temps warmer for Sunday and Monday. Given today`s temps, think there is a chance the forecast for Sunday may be a little to cool. Although Models do not show 925MB temps quite as warm as today. Therefore have kept highs generally around 60. A frontal boundary should move through the area late Monday. At this time, think it will be late enough in the day that temps warm into the mid and upper 50s. Monday night through Friday should see a cooling trend as the models transition the pattern from northwest flow to more of a broad cyclonic split flow aloft, as energy tries to dig southwest into AZ and NM. There should be weak perturbations move across the forecast area through this period. However with a modified ridge of high pressure from the Pacific northwest building into the central plains, there is not much opportunity for moisture to advect north. The ECMWF remains the only solution to bring very light QPF into parts of the area, and it has not had the best run to run continuity of late. Therefore have maintained a dry forecast through the end of the week. Reinforcing surges of high pressure from the north and northwest should keep temps closer to climo with lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1137 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A southwesterly 50KT low-level jet at 950mb will continue across terminals through 12Z, thus if we decouple and winds become lighter then low-level wind shear criteria will be met through 12Z. The surface winds will switch to the northwest by late morning and increase to 12 to 16 KTS with higher gusts through the afternoon. Winds will diminish after sunset. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM...Wolters AVIATION...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1037 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 220 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015 AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS SOME CIRRUS PASSES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES REACHED THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST BUT QUITE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH WITH SOME STATIONS REPORTING CALM WINDS. ALOFT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS GLIDING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN THE CIRRUS. ANOTHER STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED OVER MONTANA AND IDAHO. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CALM WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH NO PRECIPITATION. SKIES SHOULD CLOUD UP LATER TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN DISTURBANCE SPREADS IN FROM WYOMING. THIS RESULTS IN NEAR-STAGNANT TEMPERATURES THAT FALL EXTREMELY SLOW AND REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (NORMALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS). BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE SUNRISE...THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTHWEST FORCES A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SEVERAL GFS...WRF ARW...WRF NMM AND HRRR RUNS. WINDS WEAKEN SOME FURTHER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SPEED ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING IS REALIZED. ALOFT...WINDS HAVE WEAKENED FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE BUT STILL SHOW A 50-60 KT JET 1 KM ABOVE THE SURFACE. INTERESTING ITEM TO NOTE IS THAT THE STRONGEST JET OF WINDS SHOULD SLIDE FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. THIS MEANS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED GENERALLY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER...IF NOT EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME MIXING DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY STRONG WITH FORECAST LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-7 C/KM. OVERALL LOWERED WIND SPEEDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES BUT STRONGEST WIND GUSTS MAY STILL EXCEED 40 KNOTS...OR 46 MPH. ANOTHER NOTE ABOUT TOMORROW`S WINDS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CONCERNS THAT SOME BLOWING DUST MAY BE OBSERVED. CHECKED THE SOIL MOISTURE THIS MORNING AND IT IS QUITE WET. PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS INDICATES THAT WE HAVE BEEN AROUND 0.5" TO 1.0" ABOVE NORMAL. THIS DOES NOT EVEN INCLUDE THE WIDESPREAD 0.75" TO 1.00" RAINS RECEIVED ON DECEMBER 14TH...2014. AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS INDICATES ONE PLUME OF DUST TOMORROW AROUND HILL CITY...KANSAS. WHILE THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE...THE DUST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE BLOWING DUST ANYWHERE ELSE SO IT IS QUITE ISOLATED. BY THIS REASONING AND THAT WE ARE FORECASTING LOWER WIND SPEEDS OVER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS WITH BLOWING DUST...HAVE REMOVED BLOWING DUST FROM THE FORECAST. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 1231 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015 THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SERIES OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS BRINGING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY BUT MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO WITH THE PLAINS DRY PROBABLY DUE TO LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECT. MODELS SHOW A BIT MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM SO WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DRY WITH LACK OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE FOR LIFT. BY WEDNESDAY MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWFALL BUT THE GFS DRY...SO WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIM TO NONE IN THAT PATTERN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH AREA. INITIAL WINDS DURING THE NIGHT WILL BE NEAR 22 KNOTS WITH GUSTS ABOUT 10 KNOTS HIGHER. AFTER THE SUN COMES AND MIXING BEGINS...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 24 TO 28 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE AT KMCK. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE NEAR SUNSET. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRH LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THE REGION MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... EARLY THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS HAS LINGERED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ITS EDGES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY ERODING. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MOISTURE LAYOUT AND SHOWS THE CLOUDS THINNING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BUT CIRRUS WILL BEGIN INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED...WHICH WILL MEAN A COOLER DAY THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE SUN AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...FAVORED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ATTENTION TURNS TO A PAIR OF WX DISTURBANCES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MS VALLEY WILL INTERACT WITH A MORE SUBTLE DISTURBANCE/JET MAX IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO EVENTUALLY FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP TO AFFECT OUR AREA WILL OCCUR BEFORE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES OFF. A STRONG LLJ WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...TRANSPORTING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GFS AND SREF. SPED UP TIMING OF THE PRECIP SLIGHTLY AND ALSO INCREASED POPS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALMOST CERTAINLY LOOKS DRY FOR THIS ROUND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE SOME PRECIP FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM LESS THAN A TENTH TO AROUND A HALF INCH FROM W TO E ACROSS THE DC METRO...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE BAY. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL SPREAD IN THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION THOUGH...SO THERE STILL MAY BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE MORNING TIMING RAISES CONCERNS ABOUT P-TYPES...AND WITH THE STRONG WAA ALOFT...CAN ALMOST CERTAINLY RULE OUT SNOW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NONDIURNAL TONIGHT...WITH SLOW RISES AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE AREAS WHICH WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AT SUNRISE WOULD LIKELY NOT BE SEEING PRECIP AT THIS POINT. THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FZRA WOULD BE THE N/NW BALTIMORE SUBURBS...BUT THIS IS A SMALL CHANCE. A MIXTURE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS/W MD IF THE NORTHERN STREAM MOISTURE MOVES IN QUICKLY ENOUGH. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO PULL EAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. A CORRIDOR OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY/W-CENTRAL MD COULD MEAN SOME GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL COULD DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY RAIN. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...ALLOWING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RIDING ALONG A COLD FRONT PARALLELED TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE AND DELMARVA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE TONGUE OF HIGH PWATS AND THETA-E AREA. HOWEVER...STRONG DYNAMICS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF I-66 IN VA AND I-50 IN MD. W-NW WINDS AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG LIFT AND MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL ENHANCE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AS SLR RISE. AROUND AN INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST...EAST OF THE MTNS. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE NRN ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S IN THE MTNS AND 40S ELSEWHERE MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL START LINING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN PLAINS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY TRAILING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIFFERS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WHERE THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH AND HENCE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH SPREADING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 40S TO NEAR 50S MID WEEK AND ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE TROUGH BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MID TO LATE WEEK SHUTTING OFF ANY COLD CANADIAN AIR FROM REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH LEADING TO A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS. NW FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY. INTERMITTENT VFR CIGS SHOULD ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER FROM NE TO S AS THE HIGH PASSES...BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 10 KT. CIGS DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LOWER TOWARD DAWN. STRONG WINDS DEVELOP ALOFT...BUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAY NOT BE SHARP ENOUGH TO CAUSE LLWS. RAIN LIKELY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. DCA/BWI/MTN STAND TO SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF A STEADIER PERIOD OF RAIN AND REDUCED CIGS/VSBY (POSSIBLE IFR). IAD WILL BE ON THE BORDER. STEADY RAIN LIKELY ENDS MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT PASSES LATE AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY...ALLOWING THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS SHOULD STAY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING RAIN OVER THE WATERS BY DAYBREAK AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG A FEW THOUSAND FEET ALOFT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MIXING WILL BE LIMITED. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE W-NW. NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO GUSTY CONDITIONS AND SCA IS LIKELY FOR ALL THE WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS DEEP MIXING MAY ALLOW 34KT OR GREATER GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAS NEAR TERM...ADS SHORT TERM...HAS LONG TERM...HAS AVIATION...ADS/HAS MARINE...ADS/HAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1036 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE LIFR CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE MORNING BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL A LITTLE TRICKY AS FAR AS THE END TIME. FMN WILL BE MOST IMPACTED...GUP STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL AS WELL. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS. WIND GRADIENT ALOFT IS ALSO INCREASING SO EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNSLOPE GUSTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. USED A TEMPO GROUP AT LVS TO INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN TERMS OF IMPACT. 50 && .PREV DISCUSSION...825 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015... .UPDATE... UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO BEGIN AREAS OF FREEZING FOG PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. KFMN JUST WENT DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY IN FREEZING FOG. A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU... WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015... .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW ONE HALF MILE AND A THIN GLAZE OF ICE MAY FORM ON ROADWAYS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR AREAS ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVERNIGHT. GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND IT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN...ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. && .DISCUSSION... LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE VERY SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS NORTHWEST NM TODAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE FZFG WILL REFORM. THOUGH THERE ARE ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE HORIZON...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE SUNRISE. THE HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FZFG TO THE GRIDS AROUND FMN AND GUP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON A FZFG ADVISORY ATTM. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP NE NM OVERNIGHT...AND THOUGH THERE IS INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT FOR PRECIPITATION...MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 50KT ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. FAVORED LOCALES ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...INCLUDING CQC...WILL BE IN STORE FOR A BREEZY TO WINDY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY. ACCOMPANING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DID LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR SAT AFTN. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT QUICKLY WASHES OUT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY/WINDY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH SUN AND MON WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL SEND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN NM...THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AREAWIDE. TEMPS ON TUES WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO REALLY STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF NW FLOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES/CROSSES NM ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT...WHICH RESULTS IN THE GFS HAVING VERY LITTLE PRECIP DESPITE THE BACK DOOR FRONT REINFORCEMENT...AND THE EC SHOWING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FURTHER...THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SYSTEM ON ITS HEELS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AND MODELS ARE HAVING AN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THEM. NONETHELESS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIPITATION MID WEEK...BUT TOO SOON TO SAY HOW MUCH OR WHAT AREAS WILL BE FAVORED. STAY TUNED. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... A DRY AND RELATIVELY WARMER PATTERN HAS PREVAILED TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING. POOR VENTILATION HAS BEEN IN PLACE TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THEME INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY`S LIGHT BREEZES OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES ARE ALSO COUPLING WITH STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AND A STUBBORN LAYER OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STATE. THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE HAMPERED THE WARMING TREND IN NORTHWEST NM...BUT OTHERWISE THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE YIELDED NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. DOWNSLOPING BREEZES HAVE REALLY HELPED THE NORTHEAST WARM UP EVEN MORE...SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THESE EASTERN DOWNSLOPE AREAS ARE WHERE RH HAS DROPPED THE LOWEST...EVEN BELOW 10 PERCENT...BUT THE SNOW MELT AND LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHWESTERN NM HAVE KEPT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND RH INTACT. TONIGHT`S RECOVERY WILL BE EXCELLENT IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN...AND POOR TO FAIR IN THE NORTHEAST WITH DOWNSLOPING BREEZES STAYING ALIVE ALL NIGHT. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ENHANCE SOME OF THESE WINDS...TURNING THEM GUSTY IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVERNIGHT. A FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF NM SATURDAY MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE LITTLE CHANGE TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES. POOR VENTILATION WILL PERSIST. INTO SUNDAY NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT RELAX SOME AND A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH REDEVELOPS. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND WHAT THEY LOST ON SATURDAY...AND THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE. BY MONDAY A STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OBSERVED OVER NM AS A GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE TROUGH USHERS ANOTHER COOLER AIR MASS CLOSER TO THE STATE. SOME BETTER VENTILATION RATES ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED FOR MONDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE REDUCE WITH NEWER MODEL RUNS. THIS APPROACH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE INTO NM MONDAY NIGHT...YIELDING MUCH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A TROUGH THAT TAKES SHAPE OVER AZ AND SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WOULD SPREAD SOME HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE. THE FINER DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT ARE STILL BEING RESOLVED...BUT THIS COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD WILL CERTAINLY PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501-503. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
329 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM EST SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER TROF AXIS THAT IS NOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...NEARLY STATIONARY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KY/VA IS NOT PROGGED TO MAKE ANY FURTHER PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BEFORE THE PARENT HIGH PRESSURE EJECTS OUT TO SEA. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AN UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE AND FRONT WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING EAST WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPGLIDE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPS. THE FCST FOR SATURDAY WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING WITH NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SFC FLOW WILL VEER SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MOISTURE TO ADVECT INLAND ACROSS THE LOW COUNTRY WHILE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVES ALONG THE GULF COASTLINE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES AND ABOVE MENTIONED INCREASING LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO MENTIONABLE POPS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THUS THE FCST FEATURES LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE I77 CORRIDOR FOR THE ENCROACHING COASTAL MOISTURE FLUX WHILE ANOTHER SWATH OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH ELEVATION PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS. DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE DEPTH...NOT EXPECTING ICE NUCLEI TO BECOME ACTIVE AT ANYTIME BEFORE 12Z THUS OPTED FOR FZ RA/DZ FOR A FEW HOURS. QPF REMAINS REALLY LOW THEREFORE FCST DOES NOT FEATURE ANY ICE ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE ON SUNDAY REMAINS THE FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE SHORT RANGE. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COASTAL PLAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST RIGHT AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THAT LEAVES US WITH A DEVELOPING NW FLOW EVENT THAT DEVELOPS IMMEDIATELY UPON THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE ARRIVED UNTIL AFTER THE WAVE AXIS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE MTNS...SO WE MIGHT YET ONLY HAVE A LIGHT RAIN...WITH A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SOME OF THE DEEPER MTN VALLEYS WHERE COLD AIR WOULD BE TRAPPED. PRECIP TYPES WOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW AFTER ABOUT 15Z AS COLDER AIR COMES IN AND PROFILES ARE SATURATED HIGH ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE ICE NUCLEI. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW LONG THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A COMPROMISE WAS MADE BETWEEN THE LONGER DURATION GFS AND THE QUICKER DRYING SEEN ON THE NAM/ECMWF. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND SHOULD CROSS OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FOR TUESDAY. THAT WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND THEN OFF THE SE COAST ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE AFEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME AGREEMENT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS TO THE EFFECTS OF THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF WAVES...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THAT. THE MODELS SHOW THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE LATE TUESDAY AND THEN TAKE THE SHORT WAVE PAST TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT SHOULD HELP TO BRING SOME MOISTURE BACK UP AGAINST THE W SIDE OF THE MTNS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR WED NIGHT THAT WILL BRING A SFC BOUNDARY DOWN AND LAY IT OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A LOW CHC OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THE W SIDE OF THE MTNS...AND SHOULD KEEP THE AREA E OF THE MTNS DRY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN DROP A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT. WHICH BRINGS US TO THE LATE WEEK PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SUPPRESS THE NEXT SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...SUCH THAT THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP IN THE NEW ECMWF REMAINS TO THE S OF THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS EVEN MORE SUPPRESSED...TO THE POINT WHERE IT DOES NOT EVEN DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPSHOT IS THAT BOTH OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS DRY UP ANY LIGHT PRECIP ON THE W SLOPES OF THE MTNS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN LEAVE US BEREFT OF PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ONGOING FCST HAD A MID-RANGE CHC OF SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS AND NRN TIER OF ZONES. WILL CUT THE POP IN HALF AS A START...AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ONLY BECAUSE IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS MIGHT HAVE OVERREACTED A BIT AND WILL EVENTUALLY PULL THE SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER N. TEMPS WILL BE ADJUSTED UP A BIT WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE EXTENT OF ANY SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR LEVEL VISB THIS MORNING AT KCLT AND KAND. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST RECENT HRRR RUN KEEPS VISB AT OR ABOVE 5SM AT BOTH SITES. THAT SAID...KEPT BR IN BOTH TAFS BY WAY OF A TEMPO FOR EACH SITE. ALL OTHER SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AMIDST LIGHT/CALM NORTHERLY WINDS. SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT LEADING TO FEW/SCT CLOUDS AT ALL SITES. LASTLY...INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SLIDE A PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 NEAR PERIODS ENDS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY BY MIDDAY AT ALL SITES. OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES PREVAILS THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. PRECIP AND CIG CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY ACRS THE MTNS. BEYOND THAT FCST REMAINS DRY INTO MIDWEEK. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z 02-06Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 70% KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 70% KAND MED 66% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 70% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...CDG SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1222 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THORUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 1220 AM EST SATURDAY...NICE CALM/COOL/CLEAR NIGHT IN STORE FOR NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONTINUES TO YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH A FEW HIGH ELEVATIONS SITES BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER. CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE ASIDE FOR MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMEPRATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AT 930 PM EST FRIDAY...AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS OF THE EAST COAST..WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE WAS ALONG THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVES MOVING BETWEEN THE TWO WERE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TX...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY UPSTREAM IN THE NW. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM CAPE COD TO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED NO CLOUD COVER BETWEEN WV AND THE GULF STATES. WITH A DRY AIR MASS...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. EVEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL TO A FEW SPOTS. THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THRU THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PATTERN BRIEFLY LOOKS CAD- LIKE BUT CANNOT GET LOCKED IN DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THAT TROUGH. THE LLVL FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SE BY MIDDAY USHERING IN WEAK WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SC COAST. SOME CLOUDINESS MAY WORK INTO THE PIEDMONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 LATE IN THE DAY...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY. WITHOUT DOWNSLOPING...TEMPS ARE NOT LIKELY TO RISE QUITE AS WARM...BUT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE OTHER HALF WHERE THE RETURN FLOW WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EST FRI...A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN APPROACHING TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...THE NOSE OF A SHALLOW HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. ISOLD TO SCT PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST WITH THE UPPER FEATURES AND ALSO OVER THE EXTREME E NEARER THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE WRN MTNS EARLY. THE TRAILING MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIKELY IN THE 12Z TO 18Z PERIOD. ANTICIPATE THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE IN THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE LIMITED UNDER THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR AREA. SOME VERY LIGHT NW FLOW SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ALSO EXPECT A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT POST FROPA IN THE COLD ADVECTION. WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE 850 MB JET BRIEFLY APPROACHES 45 TO 50 KT. SHALLOW UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ON MONDAY. EXPECT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME WARMING AS COLD ADVECTION IS GRADUALLY SHUT OFF AND INSOLATION IS STRONG. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EST...THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE SOLUTIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL DIG SE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST MON NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ON TUE. ONLY A CHANNELED PORTION OF THE BETTER VORTICITY WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NRN TIER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WARRANTING ONLY WRN MTN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES INTO WED. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SWD TO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY THU...WITH BELOW CLIMO TEMPS SETTING UP LATE WEEK. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE ANTICIPATED LATE WEEK SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES THE TREND OF FEATURING A MORE ACTIVE NRN STREAM WAVE ARRIVING THU NIGHT/FRI...WHILE THE INTERESTING SRN STREAM WAVE ALONG THE WRN GULF COAST GETS DAMPENED. THERE IS SOME SFC REFLECTION ALONG THE GULF COASTAL STALLED BOUNDARY...BUT THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOW COMPLETELY DRY ON FRIDAY WITH THE MOISTURE SHUNTED SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE GEFS MEAN IS RATHER WET COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS MEMBER...AND THE 12Z ECMWF SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH N OF THE DEVELOPING NRN GULF OF MEXICO LOW. ALL TOLD...HIGH UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS...AND NOTHING BETTER THAN LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE FEATURED...WITH A CONSENSUS RAIN/SNOW LINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE HEART OF THE GSP FORECAST AREA. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR LEVEL VISB THIS MORNING AT KCLT AND KAND. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST RECENT HRRR RUN KEEPS VISB AT OR ABOVE 5SM AT BOTH SITES. THAT SAID...KEPT BR IN BOTH TAFS BY WAY OF A TEMPO FOR EACH SITE. ALL OTHER SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AMIDST LIGHT/CALM NORTHERLY WINDS. SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT LEADING TO FEW/SCT CLOUDS AT ALL SITES. LASTLY...INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SLIDE A PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 NEAR PERIODS ENDS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY BY MIDDAY AT ALL SITES. OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES PREVAILS THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. PRECIP AND CIG CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY ACRS THE MTNS. BEYOND THAT FCST REMAINS DRY INTO MIDWEEK. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z KCLT HIGH 100% MED 71% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP MED 66% LOW 32% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 100% LOW 57% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% MED 75% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU MED 66% LOW 57% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND MED 66% MED 71% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/WIMBERLEY SHORT TERM...HG LONG TERM...HG AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1012 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 .UPDATE... MOST OF THE ECHOES ON RADAR ARE NOT CURRENTLY REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER OTHER THAN BEING AN HOUR TOO SLOW THE RUC IS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH RECOGNIZING AN ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS EDMUNDS/MCPHERSON COUNTIES. THIS PRECIP IS ALL FREEZING RAIN AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE RAPIDLY RISING TO ABOVE FREEZING BEHIND THESE ENHANCED ECHOES. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF BEFORE ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS TREND. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WITH EVEN SOME AREAS OF FOG STILL LINGERING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THIS EVENING YET BEFORE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HAVE KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE FAR EAST AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF FOG. HI RES MODELS STILL INDICATING SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME 20/30 POPS IN THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE THERMAL PROFILES...A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS NICELY WITH A CORE OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS AT 850 MB RIGHT OVER THE CWA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW PRETTY DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS SO HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW. ITS SPLIT UP TO START ACROSS CENTRAL SD AT 12Z...WITH STRONGER WINDS PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ALREADY BE SUBSIDING A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL SD. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ON SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS. IF ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN AREAS...VSBY WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES. SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE A QUIETER DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE OR UPPER SUPPORT. ANOTHER LOW WILL DROP FROM CANADA OVER MINNESOTA WITH THE STRONGER WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A BOUNDARY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AFTER THE LONG TERM PERIOD ENDS...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A SMALL POP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN MID WEEK WITH MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR HIGHS BEFORE A BIT OF A REBOUND BACK TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35 KNOT RANGE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. A MIX OF PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. EARLY MORNING PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW NEAR KATY WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBY IN BLSN BEFORE MIXING WITH RAIN BY AFTERNOON. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TO 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN- POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH. WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON- DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM CST SATURDAY FOR BROWN-BUFFALO- EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK. MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR BIG STONE- TRAVERSE. && $$ UPDATE...WISE SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...PARKIN AVIATION...WISE WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1135 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 846 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT STALLED OUT JUST NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR EARLIER THIS EVENING IS NOW LIFTING NORTH AND EAST. CLEAR SKIES EXIST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AIDED BY A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING A VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI (SEE 17.00Z DVN/OAX SOUNDINGS). LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EVENTUALLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE ALOFT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE LATEST TRENDS. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR MASS AND STRONGER WINDS ACROSS IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...17.01Z RAP/HRRR HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...KEEPING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FARTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MN. AS A RESULT... REMOVED FOG FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. FINALLY...17.02Z SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FROM 6 TO 8 DEGREES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI...COMBINED WITH A VERY SHALLOW ELEVATED MOIST LAYER (SEE 17.00Z GRB SOUNDING)...SHOULD SQUASH ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. REMOVED FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION NORTH OF I-90. OVERALL...AN UNEVENTFUL NIGHT WEATHER-WISE WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MT/IDAHO WILL BRING SOME SENSIBLE WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG TROUGH ENERGY IN TWO PARTS...OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL MT-CANADA BORDER AND SECOND PIECE OVER SRN IDAHO. TWO FRONTS IN THE REGION CAUSING A BIT MORE CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD/FOG FORECAST TONIGHT. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY KMKT-KMSN ROUGHLY WITH COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND CLEARLY MARKED BY OVERCAST SKIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF IT. SECONDARY FRONT IS ACROSS SRN IA WITH WARM SECTOR SOUTHWEST WINDS IN A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S /NO SNOW COVER THERE/. AS THE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE. MOST OF THE WARM ADVECTION WILL GO INTO WARMING AND NOT LIFT...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING 5F. THE WEAK LIFT OF 1-3UB/S WILL BE LOCATED A BIT INTO THE LOWER BASED SATURATED LAYER FOR DZ/FZDZ POTENTIAL NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN FRONT...NEAR AND NORTH OF I-94. NCEP MODELS SUGGEST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT DEEP SATURATION...THIS WOULD BE A LIQUID LAYER AND FZDZ. HOWEVER...THE MODEL MOISTURE DEPTH IS LESSENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT /PER NCEP MODEL SOUNDINGS/ AND NEAR OR LESS THAN 1KM. THIS SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION GENERATION FROM THIS LAYER LESS PROBABLE. THUS...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FZDZ IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH MINOR PRECIPITATION IS GENERATED FROM THE MODELS...DIDNT FEEL CONFIDENT IT COULD BE GENERATED. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 4-5F RIGHT NOW AND AN INVERTED TEMPERATURE PROFILE...SOME SNOW MELT TODAY...SO AM CONCERNED WITH MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. WITH CLEAR SKIES...THINKING THERE COULD BE SOME EVENING FOG FORMATION IN THE COOLING AFTER SUNDOWN. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT OF HIGHER AND VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES WOULD TEND TO ADVECT THAT FOG NORTH OR DIMINISH IT. THE INVERSION IS ALSO STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION /VERSUS LIFT/. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASING TREND WITH FOG /HRRR AND RAP RUNS/ AND LATEST 16.15Z SREF IS SLIGHTLY LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH A LARGE 1 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY AREA OVER SWRN WI-SERN MN. BUT MODELS ARE ALSO BIASED TOWARD SNOW PACK FOG...ESPECIALLY THE SREF...AS THE FOG FOOTPRINT MATCHES THE SNOW DEPTH CLOSELY. A CHALLENGE TO KNOW HOW THAT AREA WILL BEHAVE FOR FOG BUT HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR DENSE FOG. QG FORCING SUGGESTS THE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT WILL SPLIT THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. KEPT SMALL CHANCES OF DZ/FZDZ/SN- NORTH OF I-90 SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MISS RIVER. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD CARRY INTO THE EVENING BASED ON A MIXED-BOUNDARY LAYER AND 0-1KM LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM AND 30-35 KTS AT 1 KM. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 OVERALL A NO/LOW IMPACT WEATHER PERIOD IT SEEMS. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ANOTHER WARM UP AND COOL DOWN AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT. OVERALL A TREND IS TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 SOME LOW STRATUS HAS REDEVELOPED IN CLEARING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...IMPACTING KLSE. THIS IS NOT HANDLED WELL IN LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE...BUT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. OTHERWISE...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT AGL WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE UPPER MI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT STILL FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS TAF AIRFIELDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING/ EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT BEING A RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND INCREASED WESTERLY WIND WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ROGERS SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST SAT JAN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER COULD BRING MAINLY PATCHY DENSE FOG NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK... FOLLOWED BY LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND WARMER DAYS. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... THE ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF SAN DIEGO SHOWS A COUPLE OF WEAK STABLE LAYERS BELOW ABOUT 6000 FEET...THEN A GRADUAL DROP OFF IN THE TEMPERATURES. THE SOUNDING DEW POINT TRACE INDICATES THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY...SHOWING ABOUT A 20 DEGREE DEPRESSION BELOW 6000 FEET. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BELOW 50 DEGREES...EVEN AT THE COAST...SHOWING RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS. A PEEK AT THE CANSAC WRF...LOCAL WRF...AND HRRR SHOW OFFSHORE DRAINAGE FLOW AT THE COAST...AND VERY WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVES AND GAP FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD KILL ANY CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. BY SUNDAY THE WRF SHOWS A VERY SHALLOW INTRUSION OF MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST...AND COULD BRING SOME PATCHY FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD ALSO BE THE CASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL MODERATE TEMPS ALONG THE COAST...SO WE COULD EVEN SEE A BIT OF A COOLING TREND THERE. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS SOME MINOR TROUGHING ON TAP FOR THE REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES SHOULD LOWER AT THAT TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR MARINE LAYER DEEPENING WITH THIS TROUGH...BUT NOCTURNAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND FAR WESTERN VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD FOR THURSDAY. && .AVIATION... 171000Z...NEAR THE COAST...A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER MAY CAUSE LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG BETWEEN ABOUT 07-15Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH VSBY RESTRICTION AS LOW AS 1/2 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS A FEW HUNDRED FEET AGL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AND A FEW MILES INLAND. OTHERWISE...FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. && .MARINE... 200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .BEACHES... 200 AM...A FRESH WNW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED SURF...WITH SETS NEAR 6 TO 7 FT...AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL BE ALONG WEST FACING BEACHES IN NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ABOVE 7 FEET DURING THE MORNINGS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...AS SURF BECOMES ELEVATED ONCE AGAIN. && .SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...SMALL AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...BROTHERTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
630 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 630 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 WITH STRONG H85 WAA...H85 TEMPS AROUND +9C AND 900 HPA TEMPS OF +11C OFF THE KDVN RAOB...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE NEED TO RAISE TEMPS FOR TODAY AND THE AM. HAVE RAISED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES CWA WIDE. THERE MAY BE A NEED TO INCREASE TEMPS AGAIN LATER THIS AM. THE 11Z RUC SUGGESTS HIGHS IN NE MO IN THE MID 50S...NOT READY TO BITE ON THAT YET...HOWEVER IT IS THE BEST MODEL IN REPRESENTING OVERALL TEMPS TODAY. ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 5 DEGREES TOO COLD. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 THE 09Z SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NE ND TODAY. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW THRU GRAND ISLAND NE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG H85 WAA WAS MOVING THRU OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT AND INTO TODAY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER THRU A COLD FRONT TODAY...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AND EVEN SOME 50S THIS AFTERNOON. AN INTENSIFYING WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. COLD AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MODEL QPF IS VIRTUALLY NON EXISTENT..HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIRES MODELS...AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT WE MAY SEE SOME PRECIP TODAY WITH FROPA AND THE ADVECTION OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODEL TEMPS FOR TODAY WERE ALL TOO LOW. HAD TO INCREASE TEMPS FOR THE HIGHS TODAY. WITH STRONG H85 WAA AND WARM TEMPS YESTERDAY...THINK THAT WE WILL HAVE JUST AS WARM IF NOT WARMER TEMPS TODAY...EVEN WITH THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED TODAY. THE NAM AGAIN SEEMS TO BE INFLUENCED BY SNOW COVER AND IS TOO COLD. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SNOW FLURRIES...WE MAY SEE THEM MELT IN THE LOW LEVELS. AT THIS TIME ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN-- SEEMS POSSIBLE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 THE MAIN LONG TERM HIGHLIGHTS ARE CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND A WEAK SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT DRY AND CONTINUED MILD WEATHER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED THE CONSENSUS BLEND GUIDANCE UPWARD...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...GIVEN THE DIMINISHING SNOW COVER. THE FAR SOUTHWEST COULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 50 SUNDAY...AND IN THE LOW 50S MONDAY. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUE THEIR GENERAL CONSENSUS IN ADVERTISING A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY DEPENDING ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGHS IN THE 20S/30S...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 630 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 WAA AND LLJ ARE LEADING TO SOME WIND SHEAR ISSUES THIS AM. THIS SHOULD WANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS. SNOW FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE AT MLI...BRL AND DBQ THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FLURRY OCCURRENCE. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO WNW THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE CAA. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GIBBS SYNOPSIS...GIBBS SHORT TERM...GIBBS LONG TERM...RP KINNEY AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
304 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 .SHORT TERM... 259 PM CST THROUGH MONDAY... AFTER MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND THEN POSSIBLE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW. THE PARENT LOW STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE LAKES...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM SHOWS UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND ALL THE WAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS A FAIRLY GENTLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING SOME MOSTLY ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...BUT SFC OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND BELOW CLOUD BASES OF 5000 FT OR MORE. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE ALOFT AND THE BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAILING THE SFC FRONT...MID TO LOWER LEVELS SLOWLY SATURATE BUT THEN HIGHER LEVELS START TO DRY OUT. MODELS ALSO ARE SHOWING DECENT FGEN AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE AIR IN THAT REGION IS NOT FAVORABLY COLD OR SATURATED ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL SNOW GROWTH. FINALLY...LAKE EFFECTS IN NW INDIANA ALSO ARE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY MILD AIR AND MORE WESTERLY THAN NORTH OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN SUMMARY...EXPECT THE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TO PERSIST THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LATE WITH DIURNAL COOLING. COLDER AIR MIGHT BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS IS NEARLY AS WARM AS WHAT WE ARE SEEING WITH TODAYS TEMPERATURES. FOR THAT REASON...WILL ONLY DROP FCST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PLACES IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF OUR AREA REACH 40 AGAIN WITH CLEARER SKIES AND LESS SNOW COVER. MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...LIKE TODAY PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. LENNING && .LONG TERM... 259 PM CST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... DETERMINISTIC MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT GENERALLY AGREE ON BRINGING IT VERY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE A DEEPER AND MORE ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE ALOFT...AND SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT MESOSCALE SUPPORT ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO NARROW DOWN THE EXTENT AND AMOUNTS OF ANY SNOW THAT MIGHT DEVELOP. WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR...SOME AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS EVEN WITHOUT ASSISTANCE FROM MESOSCALE FORCING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALSO RAISES THE IDEA OF PTYPE CONCERNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AFTER ONE LAST SEASONABLY MILD DAY TUESDAY...OR AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY...MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING OUT WEST AND A DEEPENING TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SUPPORT THE ARRIVAL OF A COLDER AIRMASS LATE TUESDAY WITH THE WEEKS COLDEST AIR SETTLING IN WEDNESDAY AND HANGING AROUND AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY. SECONDARY COLD FRONTS AND WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL SUPPORT ONGOING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE WEEK. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...MILDER AIR MAY ARRIVE AGAIN FRIDAY OR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A BROADER AND DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. LENNING && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z... * STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. * COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST...STILL GUSTY 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT. * MVFR CIGS DEVELOP WITH/BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATE. RATZER //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AT MIDDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND EASING A BIT AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY PASSES DURING THE EVENING. WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS STILL IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. LOW LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH ONLY VFR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER MVFR DECK BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE STRONGER SINKING AIR HELPS SCATTER THINGS OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FLURRIES BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...THOUGH THEY SHOULD NOT HAVE A NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON TERMINALS. ADD TO THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME. RATZER //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z... * HIGH IN WIND/GUST TRENDS. * HIGH IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. MEDIUM-HIGH IN TIMING. RATZER //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z... SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AT NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS. TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR. WEST WINDS. WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS. THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS. FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS. MTF && .MARINE... 136 PM CST LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND OVER THE LAKE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF GALES WILL BE ENDING...SO I WILL ALLOW THE GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 3 PM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A WESTERLY WIND OVER THE LAKE INTO SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE TONIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY ABATE TO 15 TO 25 KT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE BY EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY APPROACH THE WESTERN LAKES BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...SO A GRADUAL UPTAKE IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS UP AROUND 25 KT LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD ALSO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK. KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742- LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872- LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 250 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 20z/2 PM surface map shows deepening 991 mb low pressure nw of Lake Superior with its cold front extending southward across western WI to near the IA/IL border into central MO. This front will sweep eastward across central and eastern IL during this evening, shifting breezy ssw winds 15-25 mph and gusts 25-35 mph to the WNW with its passage and diminishing to 10-20 mph tonight. A fairly strong upper level trof over western MN to the NE/IA border to push eastward into IL by 06Z/midnight tonight and to the IN/OH border by sunrise Sunday. Already increased clouds this afternoon and tonight as cloud levels lower tonight. But still think light measureable mixed precipitation will be mainly east and ne of IL over Indiana and the Great Lakes region since moisture limited over central IL. So continued with chance of flurries and sprinkles over central IL this evening and ending chances from west to east during overnight as short wave trof axis passes to the east. Lows mostly in the lower 30s tonight with upper 20s near Galesburg and mid 30s near the Wabash river by Lawrenceville. && .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday) ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 The upper air pattern across the lower 48 will continue to keep the very cold air locked up over northern Canada with a more active southern stream shunting the more significant precipitation well to our south during this period. Several disturbances embedded in the west to northwest flow pattern will track mainly to our north during this period keeping us mild into early next week with little in the way of significant rain or snow expected with these fast moving shortwaves. The upper trof and attendant frontal boundary that pushed across our area today will be well off to our east by Sunday morning. Forecast soundings showing quite a bit of low level moisture in place into early Sunday morning with drier air filtering in from the west and northwest during the day. Satellite data and upstream surface observations showing a small band of lower clouds tracking southeast behind the cool front but the HRRR model has been consistenly showing the backedge of those clouds pushing into west central Illinois just after midnight tonight, so with our low level flowing becoming less cyclonic during the day Sunday, will decrease the cloud cover from west to east in the morning. Not a lot of cold air available behind the system late tonight into Sunday so temps will be above normal again Sunday afternoon, although not quite as mild as this afternoon. The next shortwave forecast to dig into the lower Great Lakes on Tuesday with low chance POPs confined to the north starting later Monday night and holding into Tuesday evening across the east. Once again, not a major rain or snow system with very little moisture available to the upper wave. After that, a series of fast moving shortwaves will track east southeast into the lower Great Lakes with the surface lows moving mainly to our north. By Thursday, we see some disagreement with the models in the speed and strength of the approaching shortwave with the GFS much more aggressive with the upper wave and further south track on the surface low than the current ECMWF. For now, will side more with the weaker ECMWF which would lead to a further track to the north later in the week, which would once again keep any low chance POPs confined to the north. Towards the end of this forecast period models are starting to show some ridging building northward around 140 degrees Longitude with 500 mb heights starting to lower over the central U.S. which would lead to some colder temps for the last week of January. Will see if the medium and long range models hold on to this idea in the next several days. In the mean time, we should see a return to more seasonably cold weather starting on Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 Strong ssw winds 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts this afternoon to veer wsw by early evening and diminish to 10-15 kts this evening. West winds overnight and Sunday behind cold front with gusts 15-20 kts Sunday morning. VFR conditions expected to continue this afternoon with 2.5-5k ft ceilings moving eastward behind cold front during early evening 00Z-02Z. Continued VCSH tonight with chance of sprinkles or flurries with best chances along I-74 from 03Z-09Z time frame. Elongated 994 mb low pressure north of MN over western Ontario with its cold front extending southward through eastern IA into nw MO will sweel front east across IL during early/mid evening hours with strong upper level trof shifting eastward into IL by 06Z/midnight tonight and to along the OH/IN border by 12Z/6 am Sunday. Low clouds could scatter out from 15-18Z Sunday morning at DEC and especially SPI while low clouds hanging on along I-74. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...Smith AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
555 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ALONG WITH A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 FANTASTIC AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION AS A COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT OVERACHIEVING TEMPS TO THE REGION. 20Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S WHERE LINGERING SNOW COVER PERSISTED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES TO EVEN SOME MID 50S OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGH SUNSET...WITH SKIES QUICKLY BECOMING CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS APPROACHES. HI-RES GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR BOTH HIGHLIGHT LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PULLING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WITH AN UPPER WAVE TRAILING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING THAT PRECIP INITIALLY WILL FALL AS A LIGHT RAIN. LOW LEVEL THERMALS WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW MIXING IN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AFTER 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY IMPACTS FROM LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS ALL NIGHT. COULD SEE A TENTH OR SO OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS BY DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT PEAK GUSTS AT 35-40MPH THROUGH SUNSET...DROPPING BACK TO 25-30MPH DURING THE EVENING THEN DIMINISHING BELOW 20MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE OUTPACED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED LOWS TONIGHT. GENERALLY WENT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR LOWS FOR THIS REASON...WITH ALL BUT THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY ABOVE 32F THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES TO LINGER OVER EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT DIVES INTO THE BACK END OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. PRIMARY ISSUE FOR SUNDAY WILL FOCUS ON THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH CONSIDERING THE COLD ADVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY SCOURING OUT DURING THE DAY. OP GFS AND NAM BOTH MAINTAIN A HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF MOISTURE AT 925MB INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR FINALLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BY LATE DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA AND HELD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND INTO THE EVENING FURTHER EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD FINALLY ENABLE SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION RETURNS MONDAY IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U S AND AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH BULK OF THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF PREDOMINANT LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED IMPACT FROM CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...LEANED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS FOR HIGHS. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MAVMOS FOR MONDAY HIGHS...THEN UNDERCUT ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 233 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE DETAILS OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT. HAD TO ALTER SUPERBLEND/S POPS...OTHERWISE GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO IT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES. LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS. FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEPT A DRY FORECAST AND REMOVED ANY SUPERBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY. ON THURSDAY SUPERBLEND IS DRY BUT AGAIN FOR SAKE OF CONTINUITY KEPT SOME SMALL POPS IN THE FAR EAST. ON FRIDAY...12Z GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL BRING A CLIPPER THROUGH THE AREA. 12Z ECMWF IS DRY. SUPERBLEND IS DRY...BUT WITH 2 MODELS SHOWING A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180000Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 554 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE ROUTES WILL BRING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT ANY ONE POINT AT ANY ONE TIME IS LOW. THE USE OF VICINITY IN THE TAFS CAPTURES THIS BETTER THAN EXPLICITLY FORECASTING PRECIPITATION. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN ANY SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE GOING VEER FROM SOUTH TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN WEST SUNDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW MORNING EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS AIR TO MIX DOWN FROM ABOVE THE SURFACE. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...JK VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
550 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ALONG WITH A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 FANTASTIC AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION AS A COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT OVERACHIEVING TEMPS TO THE REGION. 20Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S WHERE LINGERING SNOW COVER PERSISTED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES TO EVEN SOME MID 50S OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGH SUNSET...WITH SKIES QUICKLY BECOMING CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS APPROACHES. HI-RES GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR BOTH HIGHLIGHT LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PULLING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WITH AN UPPER WAVE TRAILING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING THAT PRECIP INITIALLY WILL FALL AS A LIGHT RAIN. LOW LEVEL THERMALS WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW MIXING IN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AFTER 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY IMPACTS FROM LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS ALL NIGHT. COULD SEE A TENTH OR SO OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS BY DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT PEAK GUSTS AT 35-40MPH THROUGH SUNSET...DROPPING BACK TO 25-30MPH DURING THE EVENING THEN DIMINISHING BELOW 20MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE OUTPACED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED LOWS TONIGHT. GENERALLY WENT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR LOWS FOR THIS REASON...WITH ALL BUT THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY ABOVE 32F THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES TO LINGER OVER EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT DIVES INTO THE BACK END OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. PRIMARY ISSUE FOR SUNDAY WILL FOCUS ON THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH CONSIDERING THE COLD ADVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY SCOURING OUT DURING THE DAY. OP GFS AND NAM BOTH MAINTAIN A HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF MOISTURE AT 925MB INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR FINALLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BY LATE DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA AND HELD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND INTO THE EVENING FURTHER EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD FINALLY ENABLE SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION RETURNS MONDAY IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U S AND AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH BULK OF THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF PREDOMINANT LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED IMPACT FROM CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...LEANED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS FOR HIGHS. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MAVMOS FOR MONDAY HIGHS...THEN UNDERCUT ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 233 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE DETAILS OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT. HAD TO ALTER SUPERBLEND/S POPS...OTHERWISE GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO IT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES. LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS. FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEPT A DRY FORECAST AND REMOVED ANY SUPERBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY. ON THURSDAY SUPERBLEND IS DRY BUT AGAIN FOR SAKE OF CONTINUITY KEPT SOME SMALL POPS IN THE FAR EAST. ON FRIDAY...12Z GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL BRING A CLIPPER THROUGH THE AREA. 12Z ECMWF IS DRY. SUPERBLEND IS DRY...BUT WITH 2 MODELS SHOWING A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 550 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE ROUTES WILL BRING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT ANY ONE POINT AT ANY ONE TIME IS LOW. THE USE OF VICINITY IN THE TAFS CAPTURES THIS BETTER THAN EXPLICITLY FORECASTING PRECIPITATION. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN ANY SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE GOING VEER FROM SOUTH TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN WEST SUNDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW MORNING EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS AIR TO MIX DOWN FROM ABOVE THE SURFACE. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...JK VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 .UPDATE... AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ALONG WITH A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 FANTASTIC AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION AS A COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT OVERACHIEVING TEMPS TO THE REGION. 20Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S WHERE LINGERING SNOW COVER PERSISTED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES TO EVEN SOME MID 50S OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGH SUNSET...WITH SKIES QUICKLY BECOMING CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS APPROACHES. HI-RES GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR BOTH HIGHLIGHT LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PULLING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WITH AN UPPER WAVE TRAILING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING THAT PRECIP INITIALLY WILL FALL AS A LIGHT RAIN. LOW LEVEL THERMALS WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW MIXING IN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AFTER 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY IMPACTS FROM LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS ALL NIGHT. COULD SEE A TENTH OR SO OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS BY DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT PEAK GUSTS AT 35-40MPH THROUGH SUNSET...DROPPING BACK TO 25-30MPH DURING THE EVENING THEN DIMINISHING BELOW 20MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE OUTPACED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED LOWS TONIGHT. GENERALLY WENT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR LOWS FOR THIS REASON...WITH ALL BUT THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY ABOVE 32F THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES TO LINGER OVER EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT DIVES INTO THE BACK END OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. PRIMARY ISSUE FOR SUNDAY WILL FOCUS ON THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH CONSIDERING THE COLD ADVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY SCOURING OUT DURING THE DAY. OP GFS AND NAM BOTH MAINTAIN A HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF MOISTURE AT 925MB INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR FINALLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BY LATE DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA AND HELD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND INTO THE EVENING FURTHER EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD FINALLY ENABLE SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION RETURNS MONDAY IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U S AND AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH BULK OF THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF PREDOMINANT LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED IMPACT FROM CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...LEANED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS FOR HIGHS. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MAVMOS FOR MONDAY HIGHS...THEN UNDERCUT ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 233 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE DETAILS OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT. HAD TO ALTER SUPERBLEND/S POPS...OTHERWISE GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO IT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES. LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS. FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEPT A DRY FORECAST AND REMOVED ANY SUPERBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY. ON THURSDAY SUPERBLEND IS DRY BUT AGAIN FOR SAKE OF CONTINUITY KEPT SOME SMALL POPS IN THE FAR EAST. ON FRIDAY...12Z GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL BRING A CLIPPER THROUGH THE AREA. 12Z ECMWF IS DRY. SUPERBLEND IS DRY...BUT WITH 2 MODELS SHOWING A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 172100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... VFR THROUGH 03Z OR SO...THEN MVFR. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25KT THROUGH 03Z OR SO. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KT AND SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 10KT. AFTER 03Z EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS MVFR VISIBILITY. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND PERHAPS CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 06Z BUT STILL ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS FROM ONSET THROUGH 12Z BUT TOO UNCERTAIN TO TRY AND PIN DOWN SPECIFIC TIMING. WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED KEPT IT SIMPLE WITH PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS. AFTER 12Z EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...50/JH VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 .UPDATE... THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ALONG WITH A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 FANTASTIC AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION AS A COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT OVERACHIEVING TEMPS TO THE REGION. 20Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S WHERE LINGERING SNOW COVER PERSISTED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES TO EVEN SOME MID 50S OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGH SUNSET...WITH SKIES QUICKLY BECOMING CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS APPROACHES. HI-RES GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR BOTH HIGHLIGHT LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PULLING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WITH AN UPPER WAVE TRAILING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING THAT PRECIP INITIALLY WILL FALL AS A LIGHT RAIN. LOW LEVEL THERMALS WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW MIXING IN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AFTER 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY IMPACTS FROM LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS ALL NIGHT. COULD SEE A TENTH OR SO OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS BY DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT PEAK GUSTS AT 35-40MPH THROUGH SUNSET...DROPPING BACK TO 25-30MPH DURING THE EVENING THEN DIMINISHING BELOW 20MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE OUTPACED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED LOWS TONIGHT. GENERALLY WENT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR LOWS FOR THIS REASON...WITH ALL BUT THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY ABOVE 32F THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES TO LINGER OVER EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT DIVES INTO THE BACK END OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. PRIMARY ISSUE FOR SUNDAY WILL FOCUS ON THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH CONSIDERING THE COLD ADVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY SCOURING OUT DURING THE DAY. OP GFS AND NAM BOTH MAINTAIN A HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF MOISTURE AT 925MB INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR FINALLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BY LATE DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA AND HELD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND INTO THE EVENING FURTHER EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD FINALLY ENABLE SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION RETURNS MONDAY IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U S AND AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH BULK OF THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF PREDOMINANT LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED IMPACT FROM CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...LEANED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS FOR HIGHS. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MAVMOS FOR MONDAY HIGHS...THEN UNDERCUT ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 233 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE DETAILS OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT. HAD TO ALTER SUPERBLEND/S POPS...OTHERWISE GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO IT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES. LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS. FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEPT A DRY FORECAST AND REMOVED ANY SUPERBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY. ON THURSDAY SUPERBLEND IS DRY BUT AGAIN FOR SAKE OF CONTINUITY KEPT SOME SMALL POPS IN THE FAR EAST. ON FRIDAY...12Z GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL BRING A CLIPPER THROUGH THE AREA. 12Z ECMWF IS DRY. SUPERBLEND IS DRY...BUT WITH 2 MODELS SHOWING A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 VFR THROUGH 03Z OR SO...THEN MVFR. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25KT THROUGH 03Z OR SO. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KT AND SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 10KT. AFTER 03Z EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS MVFR VISIBILITY. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND PERHAPS CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 06Z BUT STILL ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS FROM ONSET THROUGH 12Z BUT TOO UNCERTAIN TO TRY AND PIN DOWN SPECIFIC TIMING. WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED KEPT IT SIMPLE WITH PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS. AFTER 12Z EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...50 VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
305 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS IN STORE FOR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. LIKE LAST NIGHT...VISIBILITIES MAY FALL BELOW ONE HALF MILE CREATING A THIN GLAZE OF ICE ON ROADWAYS. ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY WINDS WILL AID IN WARMING UP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMTH WILL REMAIN IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL YO-YO BACK DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY THANKS TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS. && .DISCUSSION... FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE ONCE AGAIN PLAGUED NW NM TODAY. THOUGH THE FOG LIFTED AT OR SHORTLY BEFORE NOON...THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED KEEPING TEMPERATURES QUITE COLD AND WELL BELOW ANY GUIDANCE NUMBERS. GIVEN THAT THEY DID NOT GET OUT OF THE MUCK TODAY...IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE SAME WILL HAPPEN AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR PROGS SUPPORT THIS...AND THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FROM 9PM TONIGHT TIL 10AM SUN FOR ZONES 501-502-504. FOR ZONE 504...THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE WEST/NW OF THE CONTDVD. MEANWHILE...THE BACK DOOR FRONT OR WIND SHIFT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE PLAINS AND SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED BEHIND IT. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO NOTED BEHIND IT...THUS AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS BACK DOOR FRONTS...NO LOW CLOUDS OR FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT. FOR SUNDAY...WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE NW MOST LIKELY AGAIN...AND ADDITIONALLY...A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR FARMINGTON AND SURROUNDING AREAS FOR MAX TEMPS. MEANWHILE...A STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS ALLOWING FOR BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY WINDS. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR BETWEEN 5 AND NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT...EXCEPT FOR THE FMN AREA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS SHOULD ALSO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THOUGH NOT AS MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM...THOUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NW NM. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS IN STORE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN TUESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES FROM MONDAYS READINGS. WESTERN AREAS WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES AS WELL...THANKS TO A VEIL OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE BACK DOOR FRONT LOOKS TO BE REINFORCED LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN TEMPS CONTINUING TO DROP. WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT ORGANIZING STORM SYSTEM. MODELS INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO AZ OUT OF NW FLOW ALOFT LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS INDICATE A BAND OF MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NM ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE WEDNESDAY AFTN...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN IF ANY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS. THE EC IS THE MOST BULLISH ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP...BUT EVEN THEN WOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHAT WILL HAPPEN THEREAFTER. THE GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM CLOSING OFF NEAR THE BOOTHEEL WHILE THE EC CONTINUES TO MIGRATE THE TROUGH EASTWARD. BASED ON THE LATTER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY END BY FRIDAY...THOUGH IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...PRECIP COULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE REGION BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS WONKY AT BEST. SIDED MORE WITH THE DRIER EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE FRI AND BEYOND FOR NOW. STAY TUNED. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... ONLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE VENTILATION RATES...WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY POOR TO FAIR. COLD FRONT MADE IT THROUGH ROSWELL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SHROUD THE NORTHWEST TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE IT IS SUNNY AND RATHER COMFORTABLE FOR MID JANUARY. TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU. DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN AS WELL THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE EAST BUT 70S AND 80S IN THE WEST. A NICE DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH FILTERED BY HIGH CLOUDS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ONTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER AT MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS TROUGH. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST...WHILE ELSEWHERE THEY WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S AND 30S...40S IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY ONCE AGAIN AND HOLD DOWN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE THE VENT RATES THAT WILL BE POOR IN MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WITH SOME FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST OWING TO THE WINDS HELPING RAISE THE MIXING HEIGHTS SOME. NIGHTTIME RH RECOVERIES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S AND 60S IN THE EAST AND MOSTLY BETWEEN 80 AND 100 PERCENT IN THE WEST. THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD REACH THE NORTHEAST AND PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOWER OVER THE EAST...WITH MODERATE BREEZES FROM CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA ROSA. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE A BIT MOST AREAS...BUT STILL BE FAIR TO POOR IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FAIR OR BETTER IN THE EAST. THERE WILL EVEN BE SOME VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES IN THE NORTHEAST THANKS TO HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COOLER DAY ON TAP FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY SO IN THE EAST. MIN RH VALUES WILL ONLY LOWER TO THE 30S AND 40S. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE EAST DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. VENT RATES WILL DROP BACK TO MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR VALUES TUESDAY...EXCEPT SOME GOOD RATES RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST LIGHT PRECIPITATION OF THE WEEK DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE NIGHTTIME RH RECOVERIES WILL BE MOSTLY EXCELLENT. A STRENGTHENING TROUGH TO OUR WEST MAY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE STATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH CHILLY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME MIN RH VALUES ONLY IN THE 40S TO 60S. AGAIN THE VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOST MODELS THEN DRY THINGS OUT FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. CHJ && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE FOG TRYING TO LIFT AT FMN BUT PROCESS IS SLOW. MVFR FOG BUT IFR TO LIFR CIGS NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS AT FMN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THEN DROPPING DOWN TO 1/2SM AND OVC002 BY MID EVENING AGAIN AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT FROM CAO TO CVN...AROUND 20 KT GUSTS FROM TCC TO ROW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNSET. 40 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 25 43 24 51 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 14 48 15 50 / 0 0 0 0 CUBA............................ 17 47 18 50 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 22 56 17 57 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 21 52 20 54 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 16 54 17 57 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 22 56 21 58 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 25 62 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 8 44 8 46 / 0 0 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 25 47 25 50 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 22 47 24 50 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 10 40 12 43 / 0 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 11 44 16 42 / 0 0 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 9 45 14 45 / 0 0 0 0 TAOS............................ 12 44 14 47 / 0 0 0 0 MORA............................ 21 52 23 54 / 0 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 23 53 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 24 45 26 50 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 22 49 24 53 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 27 51 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 27 54 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 22 55 25 56 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 23 54 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 21 55 21 58 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 27 53 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 28 60 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 26 49 28 53 / 0 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 27 51 30 55 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 22 51 25 54 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 26 48 28 54 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 25 51 28 54 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 27 56 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 25 57 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 24 56 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 RATON........................... 17 57 21 58 / 0 0 0 0 SPRINGER........................ 21 57 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 25 60 26 61 / 0 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 31 69 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 ROY............................. 26 63 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 32 67 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 31 64 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 32 67 31 68 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 32 63 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 31 64 30 68 / 0 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 31 66 32 69 / 0 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 24 67 28 70 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 28 66 34 69 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 28 62 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501-503-504. && $$ 34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
305 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH SUNDAY IS ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. CURRENTLY...A MID LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS DIGGING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS SOUTH TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH OF IT THROUGH NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH WHERE LIFT/MOISTURE IS DEEPER. THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP HAVE SHOWN THAT THE MOISTURE/LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH SOUTH OF CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AM NOT EXPECTING DRIZZLE TO BE AN ISSUE BECAUSE WHERE THERE IS LIFT...THE MOISTURE GETS DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THAT FORECAST. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH ANY GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK ALREADY INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER IN WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE CORE OF THE TROUGH/LOW WILL BE CLOSER. WHILE WE LIKELY WILL NOT HIT 40 AGAIN TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH THE MAIN POOL OF COLDER 850MB TRACKING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 THE NEXT FEATURE TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT IS ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE FIRST ROUND FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW APPEARS TO COME IN ON MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THOUGH TRENDS FROM ALL OF THE GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 17.12Z GFS SEEM TO BE TAKING THIS BELT OF LIFT FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THE 17.12Z ECMWF HAS A UNIQUE SOLUTION WITH BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA WITH AN 850MB TROUGH. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW APPEAR TO COME IN ON TUESDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING ALL SNOW BUT FORCING LOOKS WEAK SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. BEYOND THAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THOUGH THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY ON THE MILD SIDE. A COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE POTENTIALLY OUT THERE AS WELL THOUGH TIMING/TRACK IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN MN DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. FRONT PASSING KRST RIGHT AT 18Z AND KLSE SHORTLY. WARM TEMPS AND MID CLOUD AHEAD OF FRONT WITH MVFR CLOUD BEHIND. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT AS WELL...GUSTING UP CLOSE TO 30 KTS FOR KRST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MODELS DO SUGGEST CLEARING PRIOR TO SUNRISE...IN THE 10Z ...BUT PREFERRED TO PLAY IT A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC...ESPECIALLY AT KLSE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HALBACH LONG TERM...HALBACH AVIATION...MW