Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/17/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
958 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY...AND THEN WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ONLY BE PUNCTUATED
BY A FEW VERY THIN HIGH CLOUDS LATER ON AS A BIT OF WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE
INCREASES ON THE ENTRANCE FLANKS OF A DEPARTING UPPER JET SEGMENT ALOFT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDERWAY AND SOME COOLER INLAND SPOTS
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO THE MID 30S PRIOR TO 10 PM. WE TWEAKED SOME
LOW TEMPS HERE AND THERE BUT OVERALL RANGES LOOK GOOD. WE ARE ALREADY
SEEING A FEW OBSERVATIONS REPORTING SOME LIGHT MIST/FOG BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STRONGLY SUGGEST FOG WOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND MAINLY JUST
SHALLOW GROUND FOG. WE CONSIDERED ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE
FORECAST BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS FOR SOME
OF INLAND RURAL LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WINDOW OF
RAINFALL CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL START THE DAY...
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFFSHORE AS AN INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD HAVE SUNSHINE. CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
LATE DAY AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC/COASTAL AREAS OF
SC. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO LIGHT EASTERLY LATE. MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS...MAINLY I-95 EASTWARD. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SC
ZONES WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR THE CHARLESTON COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT COMBINED WITH FULL SUNSHINE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA
WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. GIVEN THE RIDGE WILL
BE JUST WEST OF THE AREA...CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN
IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES STILL COLD IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S WELL INLAND...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER
TO THE COAST.
MONDAY...ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL FORCE THE SURFACE RIDGE TO ELONGATE
EAST-WEST AND BE CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 TO THE
LOWER 60S. GIVEN THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS END UP RAISING MAX TEMPS A BIT MORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST BRINGS ABOUT TWO MAIN POINTS OF
INTEREST. THE FIRST COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY
WITH LITTLE IMPACT AS THERE ISN/T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE
BULK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO THE
NORTH. THERE MAY END UP BEING ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS DRY MUCH LIKE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE SECOND POINT OF INTEREST COMES AT THE VERY END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS FEATURE A MUCH MORE ACTIVE SOUTHERN
STREAM IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME PERIOD WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AND EVENTUALLY TRACKING TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SUCH A SCENARIO COULD BE QUITE WET...BUT MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW AND ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...
BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAN ANY CIGS WILL OCCUR AFTER 18Z SATURDAY
AND THEY SHOULD BE VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB VFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS QUITE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG OCCUR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PREVAILING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND
NORTH. NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
BY MORNING. OUR EVENING UPDATE JUST LOWERED SOME INITIAL SEA HEIGHT
VALUES AND TWEAKED WIND DIRECTIONS. A SURGE LATER TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 12-18 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS LATE. SEAS WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
AND 2 TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS 20-60 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURGE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL
WATER BY LATE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AND PUSH EAST AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF
THE WATERS ON MONDAY THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH LOW END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THEN DECREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY. .
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1007 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY COLDER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BRIEFLY WARM UP AGAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
BRINGS LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY WITH PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
UPDATE...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS ARE INDICATING CLEAR SKIES OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...LOWERED CLOUD COVER OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH WINDS IN THE 4 TO 8 MPH RANGE
AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE
NEAR TERM AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATER THIS EVENING. RAP AND
HRRR BOTH SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE 925-950MB
LAYER AFTER 02-03Z OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY. BOTH THE NAM
AND OP GFS HINT AT THIS AS WELL. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST AS A PERIOD
OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY
SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH RAP/HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A SHARP INVERSION
PRESENT AT 1000FT AND LOWER. ONE MITIGATING FACTOR THAT WOULD KEEP
ANY FOG LIMITED IS THE INCREASE IN SURFACE FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL KEEP ANY FOG MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR INTO THE EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS...WITH WARM ADVECTION COMMENCING AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT LOWS TO OCCUR MOST AREAS BY LATE EVENING WITH STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THEREAFTER. ENDED UP SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING
MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RETURNING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S BY
12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY STANDS A STRONG CHANCE TO BE THE PICK DAY OF THE MONTH SO
FAR...DESPITE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY. 40-50KT 850MB JET WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
ENSURE A BREEZY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION WITH SUSTAINEDS NEAR 20MPH
AND GUSTS INTO THE 30-35MPH RANGE.
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
CONSENSUS STARTING TO ZERO IN ON A BAND OF PRECIP SWINGING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...STARTING FIRST AS RAIN THEN MIXING WITH AND
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS LOW LEVEL THERMALS BECOME SUPPORTIVE.
STILL THINK SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS
FAVOR HANGING ONTO LOWER CLOUDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY WITH
SLOW CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
QUICKLY BACK IN BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION RESUMING. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
TEMPS...CONSIDERING TEMP PERFORMANCE SO FAR TODAY AND EXPECTATION OF
A LOT OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY...PREFER LEANING CLOSER TO THE WARMER
MAVMOS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MANY.
TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND
LINGERING CLOUDS. UNDERCUT AGGRESSIVE MAVMOS FOR MONDAY AS WELL...
BUT STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPS RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. TOOK MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 219 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
A COUPLE OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG
TERM. MOISTURE/FORCING ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH EITHER FEATURE...SO
WILL KEEP POPS LOW.
THE FIRST ONE ALSO HAS A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH IT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER...SO LIMITED ANY FREEZING RAIN TO THE NORTH
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY TUESDAY...WITH JUST RAIN OTHERWISE.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE SECOND UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ON THURSDAY. AGAIN WITH
LIMITED FORCING/MOISTURE JUST WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK COOL ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW.
THERE WILL BE A GENERAL COOLING TREND DURING THE EXTENDED AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 930 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE 04Z-14Z IN OUTLYING TAF
SITES...OTHERWISE VFR.
SATELLITE AND WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATED CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREAS
WITH SOME MID CLOUDS TO THE NORTH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST. MAIN
ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG LATE EVENING ON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME LATER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE FOG
THREAT.
ON SATURDAY MAIN ISSUE WILL BE MODERATE WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY EVENING
CAUSING A LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/TDUD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
930 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY COLDER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BRIEFLY WARM UP AGAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
BRINGS LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY WITH PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. THESE WERE SHIFTING EAST AND EXPECT THEM TO
BE LARGELY OUT OF DELAWARE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES BY 21-22Z. SKIES
WERE SUNNY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS WE ENJOY OUR WARMEST
DAY IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS FOR MANY. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH AT 20Z.
CLOUDS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE
NEAR TERM AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATER THIS EVENING. RAP AND
HRRR BOTH SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE 925-950MB
LAYER AFTER 02-03Z OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY. BOTH THE NAM
AND OP GFS HINT AT THIS AS WELL. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST AS A PERIOD
OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY
SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH RAP/HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A SHARP INVERSION
PRESENT AT 1000FT AND LOWER. ONE MITIGATING FACTOR THAT WOULD KEEP
ANY FOG LIMITED IS THE INCREASE IN SURFACE FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL KEEP ANY FOG MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR INTO THE EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS...WITH WARM ADVECTION COMMENCING AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT LOWS TO OCCUR MOST AREAS BY LATE EVENING WITH STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THEREAFTER. ENDED UP SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING
MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RETURNING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S BY
12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY STANDS A STRONG CHANCE TO BE THE PICK DAY OF THE MONTH SO
FAR...DESPITE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY. 40-50KT 850MB JET WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
ENSURE A BREEZY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION WITH SUSTAINEDS NEAR 20MPH
AND GUSTS INTO THE 30-35MPH RANGE.
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
CONSENSUS STARTING TO ZERO IN ON A BAND OF PRECIP SWINGING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...STARTING FIRST AS RAIN THEN MIXING WITH AND
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS LOW LEVEL THERMALS BECOME SUPPORTIVE.
STILL THINK SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS
FAVOR HANGING ONTO LOWER CLOUDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY WITH
SLOW CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
QUICKLY BACK IN BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION RESUMING. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
TEMPS...CONSIDERING TEMP PERFORMANCE SO FAR TODAY AND EXPECTATION OF
A LOT OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY...PREFER LEANING CLOSER TO THE WARMER
MAVMOS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MANY.
TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND
LINGERING CLOUDS. UNDERCUT AGGRESSIVE MAVMOS FOR MONDAY AS WELL...
BUT STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPS RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. TOOK MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 219 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
A COUPLE OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG
TERM. MOISTURE/FORCING ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH EITHER FEATURE...SO
WILL KEEP POPS LOW.
THE FIRST ONE ALSO HAS A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH IT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER...SO LIMITED ANY FREEZING RAIN TO THE NORTH
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY TUESDAY...WITH JUST RAIN OTHERWISE.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE SECOND UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ON THURSDAY. AGAIN WITH
LIMITED FORCING/MOISTURE JUST WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK COOL ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW.
THERE WILL BE A GENERAL COOLING TREND DURING THE EXTENDED AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 930 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE 04Z-14Z IN OUTLYING TAF
SITES...OTHERWISE VFR.
SATELLITE AND WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATED CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREAS
WITH SOME MID CLOUDS TO THE NORTH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST. MAIN
ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG LATE EVENING ON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME LATER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE FOG
THREAT.
ON SATURDAY MAIN ISSUE WILL BE MODERATE WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY EVENING
CAUSING A LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
538 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
Recent water vapor imagery and RAP analysis showing a weak upper
wave moving east across South Dakota and Nebraska, with a much
stronger wave exiting the Pacific Northwest into the Northern
Rockies. Deep west to southwest flow has resulted over Kansas with
dry and warm lower tropospheric conditions and breezy winds
dominating.
With fairly progressive flow in place, the upper waves make quick
progress through the region through Saturday afternoon. The first
wave brings some high clouds through this evening, but more and
somewhat deeper cloud approaches late tonight and exits Saturday
afternoon with the stronger wave. Rather strong lift exits ahead of
this wave, but the still dry mid to lower levels should keep
precipitation in check. Wind speeds diminish a bit this evening but
pick up again Saturday as deeper mixing occurs in strong cold air
advection around 850mb. Winds aloft don`t quite support Advisory
levels but could be close in the north and west. The mixing and only
modified airmass should still allow temps to reach into the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
For Saturday night through Monday, models continue to show a warm
and dry weather pattern with northwest flow aloft and low level
trajectories either from the southwest or west. This low level
pattern does not favor very good moisture return. Therefore think
precip chances are pretty close to zero. Have again trended temps
warmer for Sunday and Monday. Given today`s temps, think there is
a chance the forecast for Sunday may be a little to cool. Although
Models do not show 925MB temps quite as warm as today. Therefore
have kept highs generally around 60. A frontal boundary should
move through the area late Monday. At this time, think it will be
late enough in the day that temps warm into the mid and upper
50s.
Monday night through Friday should see a cooling trend as the
models transition the pattern from northwest flow to more of a
broad cyclonic split flow aloft, as energy tries to dig southwest
into AZ and NM. There should be weak perturbations move across the
forecast area through this period. However with a modified ridge
of high pressure from the Pacific northwest building into the
central plains, there is not much opportunity for moisture to
advect north. The ECMWF remains the only solution to bring very
light QPF into parts of the area, and it has not had the best run
to run continuity of late. Therefore have maintained a dry
forecast through the end of the week. Reinforcing surges of high
pressure from the north and northwest should keep temps closer to
climo with lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. The low-level jet
will increase this evening, thus low-level wind shear will be
possible at all terminals from 3Z through 10Z SAT. light southerly
winds will shift to the northwest at 11 to 15 KTS with higher
gusts by 16Z SAT and continue int the afternoon hours of Saturday.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
425 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015
AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS SOME CIRRUS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES REACHED THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ARE FROM THE WEST BUT QUITE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH WITH SOME
STATIONS REPORTING CALM WINDS. ALOFT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
IS GLIDING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN THE CIRRUS. ANOTHER
STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED OVER MONTANA AND IDAHO.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CALM WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. SKIES SHOULD CLOUD UP LATER TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN
DISTURBANCE SPREADS IN FROM WYOMING. THIS RESULTS IN NEAR-STAGNANT
TEMPERATURES THAT FALL EXTREMELY SLOW AND REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (NORMALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS).
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE SUNRISE...THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR
NORTHWEST FORCES A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS SOLUTION HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT IN SEVERAL GFS...WRF ARW...WRF NMM AND HRRR RUNS.
WINDS WEAKEN SOME FURTHER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN SPEED ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING IS REALIZED.
ALOFT...WINDS HAVE WEAKENED FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE BUT STILL SHOW A
50-60 KT JET 1 KM ABOVE THE SURFACE. INTERESTING ITEM TO NOTE IS
THAT THE STRONGEST JET OF WINDS SHOULD SLIDE FURTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. THIS MEANS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW
EXPECTED GENERALLY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER...IF NOT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME MIXING DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY STRONG
WITH FORECAST LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-7 C/KM. OVERALL LOWERED WIND
SPEEDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES BUT STRONGEST WIND GUSTS MAY
STILL EXCEED 40 KNOTS...OR 46 MPH.
ANOTHER NOTE ABOUT TOMORROW`S WINDS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CONCERNS
THAT SOME BLOWING DUST MAY BE OBSERVED. CHECKED THE SOIL MOISTURE
THIS MORNING AND IT IS QUITE WET. PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS OVER THE
LAST 30 DAYS INDICATES THAT WE HAVE BEEN AROUND 0.5" TO 1.0" ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS DOES NOT EVEN INCLUDE THE WIDESPREAD 0.75" TO 1.00"
RAINS RECEIVED ON DECEMBER 14TH...2014. AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS INDICATES ONE PLUME OF DUST TOMORROW
AROUND HILL CITY...KANSAS. WHILE THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE...THE DUST
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE BLOWING DUST ANYWHERE ELSE SO IT IS
QUITE ISOLATED. BY THIS REASONING AND THAT WE ARE FORECASTING LOWER
WIND SPEEDS OVER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS WITH BLOWING
DUST...HAVE REMOVED BLOWING DUST FROM THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS BRINGING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. ONE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY BUT MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO WITH THE PLAINS DRY
PROBABLY DUE TO LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECT.
MODELS SHOW A BIT MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM SO WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE DRY WITH LACK OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE FOR LIFT. BY
WEDNESDAY MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF
SHOWING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH ASSOCIATED
LIGHT SNOWFALL BUT THE GFS DRY...SO WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIM TO NONE IN THAT PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 421 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL STAY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL NEAR 09Z WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL START
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. INITIALLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. AFTER THE
SUN COMES UP AND MIXING OCCURS...THEN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KMCK. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE NEAR
THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1020 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER
THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODIFY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
1015 PM UPDATE: STREAMERS OF LIGHT SNOW COMING OFF THE ST.
LAWRENCE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT ESE. A NARROW BAND OF
CLOUDS AS SEEN ON THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY STRETCHES FROM QUEBEC
ESE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE BAND OF CLOUDS
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE LATEST RAP AND NAM12 BY EARLY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW ALREADY BELOW ZERO
AND W/WINDS 10-20 MPH, WIND CHILLS ARE AT -30F. FURTHER S,
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. THE TEMPS WILL DROP
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO POUR INTO
THE REGION. THEREFORE, ADJUSTED THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS READINGS ARE ALREADY BELOW WHAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AT 03Z.
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BRINGING A FRESH ROUND OF FRIGID
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE
HIGH BUILD TO THE EAST SAT NGT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE THE WEST
OF MAINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SUN MRNG.
LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/DP/WND/POP.
LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ADDED 15 PERCENT
TO THE WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT FOR WNDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FAST RETREAT OF ARCTIC
AIR N OF THE REGION SUN MORN...WITH FLURRIES AND OCNL LGT SN THRU
THE DAY. TEMPS WARMING ABV FZG OVR DOWNEAST SITES WILL RESULT IN
OCNL LGT SN TO CHG TO LGT RN DURING THE AFTN HRS.
OTHERWISE...THE DTMNSTC 12Z GFS AND CANGEM WERE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
FURTHER W THRU NRN ME. DESPITE THIS...THE LATEST NAM MODEL RUNS
AND ENSMS OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WERE STILL FURTHER E WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS...WE RAISED OVRNGT LOWS A
LITTLE FOR SUN NGT AS WELL AS HIGH TEMPS ON MON. THE RESULTANT
FCST HRLY TEMP TREND THRU THESE PDS ALLOWS US TO KEEP A SN TO MIX
OVR NW ME AND A MIX TO RN OVR NE AND CNTRL PTNS OF OUR REGION.
ELSEWHERE...MSLY RN DOMINATES WITH THIS EVENT...WITH STEADY
PRECIP CHGNG BACK TO SN SHWRS ACROSS THE N AND MIXED RN/SN SHWRS
OVR CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE MON AFTN INTO MON
NGT. OUR PRELIM SN TOTALS SHOWS A MX OF 6 INCHES OF SN (WITH SOME
PL) ALG THE NW ME/ERN QB BORDER...WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING OFF
QUICKLY TO THE E...BUT NOT AS FAST ATTM AS SUGGESTED BY WPC
GUIDANCE ATTM... IN THE EVENT THE TRACK OF THE SFC...WHICH WE ARE
STILL NOT CERTAIN...SHOWN BY THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS TAKES A
JOG BACK TO THE E OVR FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
TAKING LITERALLY...THE 12Z GFS MODEL RUN SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY
OF STRONG ENOUGH WINDS WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LLVL JET FOR WIND
HDLNS OVR DOWNEAST AREAS SUN NGT INTO MON MORN AND POTENTIALLY
HEAVY ENOUGH RAIN FOR A FLOOD WATCH FOR RVR ICE MOVEMENT ALONG
AND JUST E OF OUR HIGHLANDS. GIVEN THAT THE 12Z GFS MODEL RUN IS
CURRENTLY THE FURTHEST W OPNL MODEL RUN WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON THESE TYPES OF HDLNS FOR NOW TO SEE HOW STABLE THE
MODELS WILL BE WITH THIS STORM TRACK. TOTAL QPF WE CURRENTLY SHOW
RUNS FROM ARND AN INCH FROM THE DOWNEAST COAST AND FAR N TO 1.75
INCHES OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS.
SN SHWRS WILL CONT MSLY OVR THE N MON NGT AS MODERATELY COLD
ARCTIC AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE FA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SN SHWRS WILL CONT ACROSS THE N INTO TUE AS TEMPS RETURN TO
AOB NORMAL FOR HI TEMPS. MSLY FAIR WITH AOB NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONT
TUE NGT THRU FRI AS INTERMITTENT WEAK UPPER LVL S/WVS FROM QB
BRING INTERVALS OF CLDNSS AND OCNL FLURRIES.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE EARLY
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
EXCEPT FVE EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER AROUND 9 PM ONLY HIGH THIN
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INCREASING
CLOUDS TOMORROW EVNG ACROSS NRN MAINE...CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MVFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER MIDNGT
FOR FVE...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD. .
SHORT TERM: IFR TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN OCNL LGT SN SUN AND SUN EVE
WILL LOWER TO LIFR TO IFR IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN RN FROM LATE
SUN NGT THRU ERLY MON AFTN. RN WILL END AS SN SHWRS FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER MON AFT AND MON NGT WITH CLGS AND VSBYS
IMPROVING TO MVFR. MVFR CLGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NRN TAF SITES TUE
AND WED WHILE DOWNEAST SITES BECOME VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING AND A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE AN SCA FOR SEA
TOMORROW EVNG. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS
TOMORROW MORNING CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE...AN SCA MAY BE
REQUIRED AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVR OUR WATERS SUNDAY
INTO SUN EVE WITH SRLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE APCHG LOW FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES. AFTWRDS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SFC MON JUST N OF THE WATERS...THEN INCREASE FROM THE WSW TO NEAR
SCA LVLS MON NGT AND TUES AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES...AS
WV HTS REMAIN AOA 5 FT...MEANING AN XTNDED SCA IS LIKELY AFT THE
GALE PD INTO MID WEEK...SPCLY OVR OUTER MZS050-051.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-
031-032.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
943 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DRY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THRU SRN VA LATE THIS EVENG...WHILE HI
PRES WAS CENTERED OVR THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT WILL
DROP S OF THE REGION OVRNGT INTO SAT MORNG...WHILE HI PRES SLIDES
INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. NNE WINDS WILL USHER EVEN DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA...AS THE SKY WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR TO MID 20S ACRS THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA...TO THE UPR 20S
TO ARND 30 ACRS SE VA AND NE NC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE N/NW SAT MORNG...BCMG CENTERED OVR THE
MID ATLANTIC DURING THE MIDDAY/ERLY AFTN HRS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 40S
IN THE MOST SPOTS...MID TO UPR 30S OVR THE LWR ERN SHORE.
A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION SAT
NGT...WITH SLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPR 30S ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES THRU THE
OVRNGT HRS AS WAA AND MOISTURE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROF.
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN (80% E HALF OF AREA AND 50-70% W HALF) WILL
BE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUN AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS AND THE MID-
LEVEL TROF NEARS THE REGION. MODEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS ALL
SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. THE RAIN WILL END FM W TO E
SUN AFTN. WITH FAIRLY GOOD DYNAMICS...UP TO 1.0 IN RAIN IS
PSBL...MAINLY OVR ERN AREAS. HI TEMPS SUN RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S.
CONDS DRY OUT SUN NGT AND MON AS THE TROF PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC
HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE SE STATES. CONTINUED NR-NORMAL TEMPS MON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NR SEASONABLE CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PDS W/ MNLY ZONAL FLO
ALOFT. A WK S/W TRACKS QUICKLY W-E IN ZONAL FLO ACRS THE FA (TUE NGT
INTO WED). ATTM...ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LGT AND SCT AT BEST...SO WILL
JUST HAVE VRB CLDS TO MCLDY THOSE PDS.
BY LT IN NEXT WK...MDLS (12Z/16 GFS/ECMWF) CONTG TO HAVE SGFNT
DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING PATTERN ACRS NA. BOTH ARE NOW DELAYING ANY
PTNTL MOISTURE/STM FM THE SW STATES/SRN PLAINS...AND KEEPING ANY
RETURN TO COLDER WX BOTTLED UP TO THE NNW OF THE RGN. WILL HANG ONTO
TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS THU NGT INTO FRI MRNG W/ A SECOND S/W
PASSING ACRS THE RGN.
HI TEMPS TUE/WED IN THE M/U40S N TO L/M50S S. HI TEMPS THU/FRI
RANGING THROUGH THE 40S. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE M20S TO L30S...THEN
TUE/WED/THU NGTS MNLY IN THE L/M30S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OBS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE SRN BORDER OF PA AT 23Z.
USED RUC TO TIME THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES FROM
THE NORTH LATE EVENING UP TO AROUND 1 AM AT ECG. WINDS VEER TO
NORTHERLY AND INCREASE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPSTREAM
THERE IS A CLOUD LAYER AT 4K FT THAT MAY DEVELOP AT SBY. MOISTURE AT
AROUND 950 MB MAY PRODUCE SCT CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SE IN THE
MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY
MORNING AND BECOME VARIABLE...EVENTUALLY COMING AROUND TO SE LATE
SATURDAY ALL UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
OUTLOOK...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF PCPN AND A FEW HOURS OF IFR. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
INITIAL SFC TROUGH CROSSING THE WATERS THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN WNDS
BECOMING NW AND GUSTY TO 20 TO 25 KT...ESP NRN BAY AND OCN WATERS IN
FA. POLAR FNT TO CROSS THE WATERS TNGT...W/ WNDS BECOMING N AND INCRSG
TO 15 TO 25 KT...MAY OCNL GUSTS TO 30 KT FOR A BRIEF PD AT ONSET OF
LO LVL CAA. NNE WNDS TO WANE SAT MRNG...THEN HI PRES DRIFTS OVR THE
WTRS SAT AFTN RESULTING IN WNDS SLOLY BECOMING SSE. AHEAD OF NEXT
CDFNT...WNDS BECOME SSW...PSBLY INCRSG TO 15 TO 25 KT...MNLY OVR
PORTIONS OF THE OCN WATERS BY SUN. GUSTY NW WNDS (AND ELEVATED
WAVES/SEAS) RETURN SUN NGT...CONT THROUGH MON W/ XPCD ROUND OF LO
LVL CAA. WINDSPEEDS TO DIMINISH LATE MON INTO TUE WHILE BECOMING MR
WLY.
SCAS ARE UP FOR ALL WATERS (XCP THE RIVERS) THROUGH LT TNGT OR SAT
MRNG.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ632>634-
650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
718 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD ~1028 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVR
THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A COLD FRNT NR THE PA/MD BORDER.
ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS PULLING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST THIS
AFTN. THE COLD FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATER THIS EVENG WITH
GUSTY WLY WINDS TRANSITIONING TO NLY THEN NERLY BEHIND THE FRNT.
OTWS...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY WITH TEMPS NR NORMAL FOR MID JAN...LOWS
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPR 20S...LWR 30S OVR EXTREME SE VA/NE NC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE N/NW SAT MORNG...BCMG CENTERED OVR THE
MID ATLANTIC DURING THE MIDDAY/ERLY AFTN HRS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 40S
IN THE MOST SPOTS...MID TO UPR 30S OVR THE LWR ERN SHORE.
A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION SAT
NGT...WITH SLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPR 30S ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES THRU THE
OVRNGT HRS AS WAA AND MOISTURE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROF.
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN (80% E HALF OF AREA AND 50-70% W HALF) WILL
BE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUN AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS AND THE MID-
LEVEL TROF NEARS THE REGION. MODEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS ALL
SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. THE RAIN WILL END FM W TO E
SUN AFTN. WITH FAIRLY GOOD DYNAMICS...UP TO 1.0 IN RAIN IS
PSBL...MAINLY OVR ERN AREAS. HI TEMPS SUN RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S.
CONDS DRY OUT SUN NGT AND MON AS THE TROF PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC
HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE SE STATES. CONTINUED NR-NORMAL TEMPS MON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NR SEASONABLE CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PDS W/ MNLY ZONAL FLO
ALOFT. A WK S/W TRACKS QUICKLY W-E IN ZONAL FLO ACRS THE FA (TUE NGT
INTO WED). ATTM...ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LGT AND SCT AT BEST...SO WILL
JUST HAVE VRB CLDS TO MCLDY THOSE PDS.
BY LT IN NEXT WK...MDLS (12Z/16 GFS/ECMWF) CONTG TO HAVE SGFNT
DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING PATTERN ACRS NA. BOTH ARE NOW DELAYING ANY
PTNTL MOISTURE/STM FM THE SW STATES/SRN PLAINS...AND KEEPING ANY
RETURN TO COLDER WX BOTTLED UP TO THE NNW OF THE RGN. WILL HANG ONTO
TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS THU NGT INTO FRI MRNG W/ A SECOND S/W
PASSING ACRS THE RGN.
HI TEMPS TUE/WED IN THE M/U40S N TO L/M50S S. HI TEMPS THU/FRI
RANGING THROUGH THE 40S. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE M20S TO L30S...THEN
TUE/WED/THU NGTS MNLY IN THE L/M30S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OBS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE SRN BORDER OF PA AT 23Z.
USED RUC TO TIME THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES FROM
THE NORTH LATE EVENING UP TO AROUND 1 AM AT ECG. WINDS VEER TO
NORTHERLY AND INCREASE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPSTREAM
THERE IS A CLOUD LAYER AT 4K FT THAT MAY DEVELOP AT SBY. MOISTURE AT
AROUND 950 MB MAY PRODUCE SCT CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SE IN THE
MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY
MORNING AND BECOME VARIABLE...EVENTUALLY COMING AROUND TO SE LATE
SATURDAY ALL UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
OUTLOOK...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF PCPN AND A FEW HOURS OF IFR. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
INITIAL SFC TROUGH CROSSING THE WATERS THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN WNDS
BECOMING NW AND GUSTY TO 20 TO 25 KT...ESP NRN BAY AND OCN WATERS IN
FA. POLAR FNT TO CROSS THE WATERS TNGT...W/ WNDS BECOMING N AND INCRSG
TO 15 TO 25 KT...MAY OCNL GUSTS TO 30 KT FOR A BRIEF PD AT ONSET OF
LO LVL CAA. NNE WNDS TO WANE SAT MRNG...THEN HI PRES DRIFTS OVR THE
WTRS SAT AFTN RESULTING IN WNDS SLOLY BECOMING SSE. AHEAD OF NEXT
CDFNT...WNDS BECOME SSW...PSBLY INCRSG TO 15 TO 25 KT...MNLY OVR
PORTIONS OF THE OCN WATERS BY SUN. GUSTY NW WNDS (AND ELEVATED
WAVES/SEAS) RETURN SUN NGT...CONT THROUGH MON W/ XPCD ROUND OF LO
LVL CAA. WINDSPEEDS TO DIMINISH LATE MON INTO TUE WHILE BECOMING MR
WLY.
SCAS ARE UP FOR ALL WATERS (XCP THE RIVERS) THROUGH LT TNGT OR SAT
MRNG.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ632>634-
650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015
WE`VE GOT A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF
CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. THIS SETUP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH MINNESOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY. THE BAND OF
CLOUDS ALREADY MENTION WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CLOUD
COVER TO FILL IN ANY HOLES IN OUR EASTERN AND NORTHERN CWA. IN OUR
SOUTHWEST...SKY COVER WILL BE MORE QUESTIONABLE...SO WENT AHEAD WITH
INSERTING FOG INTO THE FORECAST THERE FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. UNDER THE MAIN STRATUS DECK...COULD FORESEE SQUEEZING OUT SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE PERIPHERY AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE BUMPED UP SOME AS CONFIDENCE
IN CLOUDY SKIES HAS INCREASED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. FOR
FRIDAY...STILL EXPECTING CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...WITH INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...AS OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FINALLY BEGINS MOVING EAST BACK TOWARDS US AS A WARM FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE ARE A COUPLE SYSTEMS PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA TO WATCH ON SATURDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE SHOULD HAVE
RELATIVELY LITTLE IMPACT WITH THE BULK OF THE QPF REMAINING NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE WARM-UP AND...P-TYPE IS A QUESTION
ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS EVENTUALLY
AFFECTING ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
THE ONLY REASONABLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE COMING DAYS
OCCURS ON SATURDAY WITH A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING
THE DAKOTAS BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AND THERE IS ALSO A LEADING SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSVERSE THE AREA
TOMORROW EVENING. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE 0C AT
850MB BY 12 SATURDAY. IN FACT...850MB TEMPS WILL BE 1-2C WARMER
THAN TODAY AND WE GOT INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S TODAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS. SATURDAY MORNING/NORTH OF I-94 IS THE MOSTLY LIKELY
TIME AND LOCATION TO SEE A LITTLE SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND ANY
VERY LIGHT SNOW/ICE ACCUMS WILL MELT. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN IN THE LOWER
40S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG BL WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ADVECTION IS STRONG ONLY
BECAUSE WE ARE STARTING SO WARM SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE
INCOMING AIR MASS ISN`T OVERLY COLD. THERE IS...HOWEVER...35-40KTS
BELOW 900MB...SO SATURDAY MORNING WILL FEEL MUCH BETTER THAN LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF MN. ANY PRECIP THAT HAPPENS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL MN ON SATURDAY WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW GIVEN HOW FAST THE TEMP PROFILE
COOLS. AGAIN...NOT MUCH LIQUID IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS NORTH AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST THU JAN 15 2015
A COMPLICATED FORECAST AHEAD AS THE EXACT LOCATION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE KEY IN CONDITIONS FOR YOUR AREA. A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...AS WILL A DECK OF
STRATUS CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE RAP INDICATED SIGNIFICANT DRYING AT
850MB THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE AREA. A MORE SATURATED
ENVIRONMENT BELOW THIS LEVEL IS INDICATED...BUT AM OPTIMISTIC THAT
THE MODEL IS OVERDOING THE NEAR GROUND MOISTURE AND VFR CIGS WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AXN WHERE A
DECK OF IFR STRATUS LINGERS AND LOOKS TO WOBBLE NEAR AXN FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SPEED OF THE FRONT HAS SLOWED A BIT...SO ITS
SOUTHERN EXTENT BY THE TIME IT STALLS OUT TOMORROW WILL BE FROM
NEAR AXN TOWARD RGK. NAM INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR --S ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS BOUNDARY.
KMSP...FIRST FEW HOURS OF MVFR WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF STRATUS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT EXPECTING CIGS TO POTENTIALLY BECOME VFR
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL FILL BACK IN AND
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VCSH
INTRODUCED GIVEN NAM INDICATION OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
825 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO BEGIN AREAS OF FREEZING FOG PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. KFMN JUST WENT DOWN TO ONE HALF
MILE VISIBILITY IN FREEZING FOG. A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...459 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN/CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW
THIRD TONIGHT WITH LASTING IMPACTS INTO SATURDAY MORNING...PERHAPS
EVENING EARLY AFTERNOON. ONE DIFFERENCE TONIGHT VERSUS LAST NIGHT
WILL BE THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD. UNSURE AT THIS TIME HOW IT
WILL LIMIT LOW CIG/BR DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT
24 HRS. WIND GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER MTN PEAKS
TONIGHT AND LOOKING FOR SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. THERE COULD BE AN IMPACT TO
LVS BUT NOT INDICATING HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TIME.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...VISIBILITIES
MAY DROP BELOW ONE HALF MILE AND A THIN GLAZE OF ICE MAY FORM ON
ROADWAYS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
AREAS ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
OVERNIGHT. GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
IT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN...ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM...BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE VERY SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS NORTHWEST NM TODAY.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE FZFG WILL
REFORM. THOUGH THERE ARE ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE
HORIZON...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BEFORE SUNRISE. THE HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS/FOG. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FZFG TO THE GRIDS AROUND
FMN AND GUP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PULL THE TRIGGER
ON A FZFG ADVISORY ATTM.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP NE NM OVERNIGHT...AND
THOUGH THERE IS INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT FOR
PRECIPITATION...MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
NEAR 50KT ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN.
FAVORED LOCALES ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...INCLUDING CQC...WILL BE IN STORE FOR A BREEZY TO WINDY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.
ACCOMPANING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DID LOWER TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FOR SAT AFTN. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE
TEXAS BORDER BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONT QUICKLY WASHES OUT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY/WINDY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR
ON SUNDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH SUN AND MON WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY WILL SEND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN
NM...THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AREAWIDE. TEMPS ON TUES
WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL.
MODELS CONTINUE TO REALLY STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES/CROSSES NM ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT...WHICH RESULTS
IN THE GFS HAVING VERY LITTLE PRECIP DESPITE THE BACK DOOR FRONT
REINFORCEMENT...AND THE EC SHOWING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
FURTHER...THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SYSTEM ON ITS
HEELS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM AND MODELS ARE HAVING AN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING THEM. NONETHELESS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION MID WEEK...BUT TOO SOON TO SAY HOW MUCH OR WHAT AREAS
WILL BE FAVORED. STAY TUNED.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AND RELATIVELY WARMER PATTERN HAS PREVAILED TODAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING.
POOR VENTILATION HAS BEEN IN PLACE TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THEME INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY`S LIGHT BREEZES OVER THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN ZONES ARE ALSO COUPLING WITH STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS
AND A STUBBORN LAYER OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE STATE. THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE HAMPERED THE
WARMING TREND IN NORTHWEST NM...BUT OTHERWISE THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
HAVE YIELDED NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. DOWNSLOPING BREEZES
HAVE REALLY HELPED THE NORTHEAST WARM UP EVEN MORE...SOME 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THESE EASTERN DOWNSLOPE AREAS ARE WHERE RH HAS DROPPED
THE LOWEST...EVEN BELOW 10 PERCENT...BUT THE SNOW MELT AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER NORTHWESTERN NM HAVE KEPT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND RH
INTACT. TONIGHT`S RECOVERY WILL BE EXCELLENT IN THE SAN JUAN
BASIN...AND POOR TO FAIR IN THE NORTHEAST WITH DOWNSLOPING BREEZES
STAYING ALIVE ALL NIGHT. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL
ENHANCE SOME OF THESE WINDS...TURNING THEM GUSTY IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVERNIGHT.
A FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF NM SATURDAY
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES. CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE LITTLE CHANGE
TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES. POOR VENTILATION
WILL PERSIST. INTO SUNDAY NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT RELAX SOME AND A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH REDEVELOPS. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND WHAT THEY LOST ON SATURDAY...AND
THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE.
BY MONDAY A STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OBSERVED OVER NM AS A
GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE TROUGH USHERS ANOTHER COOLER AIR MASS CLOSER
TO THE STATE. SOME BETTER VENTILATION RATES ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED
FOR MONDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE REDUCE WITH NEWER
MODEL RUNS. THIS APPROACH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE INTO NM MONDAY
NIGHT...YIELDING MUCH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS INTO TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A TROUGH THAT TAKES SHAPE OVER
AZ AND SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WOULD SPREAD SOME HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME WHILE DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE. THE FINER DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT ARE STILL BEING RESOLVED...BUT THIS COOLER AND
WETTER PERIOD WILL CERTAINLY PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
459 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN/CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW
THIRD TONIGHT WITH LASTING IMPACTS INTO SATURDAY MORNING...PERHAPS
EVENING EARLY AFTERNOON. ONE DIFFERENCE TONIGHT VERSUS LAST NIGHT
WILL BE THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD. UNSURE AT THIS TIME HOW IT
WILL LIMIT LOW CIG/BR DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT
24 HRS. WIND GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER MTN PEAKS
TONIGHT AND LOOKING FOR SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. THERE COULD BE AN IMPACT TO
LVS BUT NOT INDICATING HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TIME.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...VISIBILITIES
MAY DROP BELOW ONE HALF MILE AND A THIN GLAZE OF ICE MAY FORM ON
ROADWAYS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
AREAS ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
OVERNIGHT. GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
IT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN...ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM...BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE VERY SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS NORTHWEST NM TODAY.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE FZFG WILL
REFORM. THOUGH THERE ARE ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE
HORIZON...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BEFORE SUNRISE. THE HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS/FOG. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FZFG TO THE GRIDS AROUND
FMN AND GUP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PULL THE TRIGGER
ON A FZFG ADVISORY ATTM.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP NE NM OVERNIGHT...AND
THOUGH THERE IS INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT FOR
PRECIPITATION...MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
NEAR 50KT ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN.
FAVORED LOCALES ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...INCLUDING CQC...WILL BE IN STORE FOR A BREEZY TO WINDY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.
ACCOMPANING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DID LOWER TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FOR SAT AFTN. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE
TEXAS BORDER BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONT QUICKLY WASHES OUT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY/WINDY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR
ON SUNDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH SUN AND MON WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY WILL SEND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN
NM...THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AREAWIDE. TEMPS ON TUES
WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL.
MODELS CONTINUE TO REALLY STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES/CROSSES NM ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT...WHICH RESULTS
IN THE GFS HAVING VERY LITTLE PRECIP DESPITE THE BACK DOOR FRONT
REINFORCEMENT...AND THE EC SHOWING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
FURTHER...THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SYSTEM ON ITS
HEELS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM AND MODELS ARE HAVING AN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING THEM. NONETHELESS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION MID WEEK...BUT TOO SOON TO SAY HOW MUCH OR WHAT AREAS
WILL BE FAVORED. STAY TUNED.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AND RELATIVELY WARMER PATTERN HAS PREVAILED TODAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING.
POOR VENTILATION HAS BEEN IN PLACE TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THEME INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY`S LIGHT BREEZES OVER THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN ZONES ARE ALSO COUPLING WITH STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS
AND A STUBBORN LAYER OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE STATE. THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE HAMPERED THE
WARMING TREND IN NORTHWEST NM...BUT OTHERWISE THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
HAVE YIELDED NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. DOWNSLOPING BREEZES
HAVE REALLY HELPED THE NORTHEAST WARM UP EVEN MORE...SOME 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THESE EASTERN DOWNSLOPE AREAS ARE WHERE RH HAS DROPPED
THE LOWEST...EVEN BELOW 10 PERCENT...BUT THE SNOW MELT AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER NORTHWESTERN NM HAVE KEPT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND RH
INTACT. TONIGHT`S RECOVERY WILL BE EXCELLENT IN THE SAN JUAN
BASIN...AND POOR TO FAIR IN THE NORTHEAST WITH DOWNSLOPING BREEZES
STAYING ALIVE ALL NIGHT. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL
ENHANCE SOME OF THESE WINDS...TURNING THEM GUSTY IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVERNIGHT.
A FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF NM SATURDAY
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES. CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE LITTLE CHANGE
TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES. POOR VENTILATION
WILL PERSIST. INTO SUNDAY NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT RELAX SOME AND A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH REDEVELOPS. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND WHAT THEY LOST ON SATURDAY...AND
THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE.
BY MONDAY A STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OBSERVED OVER NM AS A
GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE TROUGH USHERS ANOTHER COOLER AIR MASS CLOSER
TO THE STATE. SOME BETTER VENTILATION RATES ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED
FOR MONDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE REDUCE WITH NEWER
MODEL RUNS. THIS APPROACH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE INTO NM MONDAY
NIGHT...YIELDING MUCH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS INTO TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A TROUGH THAT TAKES SHAPE OVER
AZ AND SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WOULD SPREAD SOME HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME WHILE DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE. THE FINER DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT ARE STILL BEING RESOLVED...BUT THIS COOLER AND
WETTER PERIOD WILL CERTAINLY PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
300 PM EST THU JAN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND
GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS EARLY INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS REACHED ALABAMA AND CONTINUES TO PRESS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.
THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST
AROUND 06 UTC FRIDAY. THE CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION IS JUST WEST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WITH
GEORGIA. THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS SHOWING THE BEST LIFT IS
AROUND 00 UTC IN OUR AREA. THE LATEST HRRR IS NOT AS OPTIMISTIC ON
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT IT IS SHOWING THE BETTER COVERAGE IN GEORGETOWN
AND WILLIAMSBURG AREAS. WILL KEEP A 50 TO 70% POP OVERNIGHT BUT THIS
WILL BE FOR LIGHT RAIN. THE QPF TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE OF WINDS OVERNIGHT...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVERCAST ALL NIGHT THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN
THE MID 30 WITH UPPER 30S ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COASTAL FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY AND REMAIN SO INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD
REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH MID TO UPPER 50S...PERHAPS 60
SOUTH...ON SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 30 TO 35
WITH MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GO DOWNHILL AS AN
APPROACHING H5 SHORT WAVE INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT
TO BRING CLOUDS AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THIS IS A SCENARIO WHERE
WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE OVERNIGHT IF THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES
ASHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WAVE TO
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IT MAY BE TOO EARLY IN THE DAY FOR MUCH
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP SO WHILE SHOWERS LOOK A GOOD BET THUNDER MAY
BE HARD TO COME BY. COOL AND DRY ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DAY OF SUN TUESDAY WITH SOME RECOVERY IN
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO
LITTLE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES. MOISTURE MAY
BE STREAMING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE STRATUS DECK FINALLY BEGAN ERODING THIS MORNING...
AND BY 18-19Z EXPECT VFR AT ALL THE COASTAL SITES. THE INCREASING
CIRRUS HAS HELPED MAINTAIN IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT BY ISSUANCE TIME CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO AT LEAST MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VRBL THROUGH THE
DAY...GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PRODUCING -RA AND TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS AROUND MIDNIGHT. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...
DO NOT ANTICIPATE PERSISTENT IFR OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ON
FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW AOB 10 KT AND SUNNY SKIES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR FRI AND SAT. RAIN AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE
ON SUN. VFR ON MON AND TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM...LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BLOWING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AS A UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEA HEIGHTS ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET WITH A FEW 4 FOOTERS 15 TO 20 MILES
OFF THE POINT OF CAPE FEAR. WITH THE INCREASE IN THE WINDS THE SEAS
WILL RESPOND WITH MORE 4 FOOTERS 15 TO 20 MILES OFF THE COAST FROM
FRYING PAN NORTHWARD AND IN MOST SOUTHWEST PORTION OF AMZ256.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY AND VEER TO SE TO S SATURDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AOB
15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WILL RUN 3 TO 4
FEET THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH 1 TO 2 FOOTERS ARE EXPECTED
CLOSER TO SHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER WINDS TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...5 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE AT 20
NM OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PREFRONTAL FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY
TO THE POINT WHERE ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED. THE POST-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE STRONGER FLOW AND
THE ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE DUE TO WINDS EVEN AS THE ABRUPT TURN TO
OFFSHORE PUSHES THE LARGEST SEAS OUT OF THE 20NM MARKER. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ON MONDAY KEEPING THE
WINDS OFFSHORE BUT WITH A MUCH LESSER GRADIENT. THE FLOW WILL ALSO
ACQUIRE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT LATER IN THE DAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OFF THE COAST. LIGHT SWRLY FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
100 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 PM WEDNESDAY...
STILL SEEING AREAS OF (FREEZING) DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA WHERE RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL ABOUT
4-5K FT DEEP (NO 00Z/15TH KMHX RAOB). REGIONAL RAOBS SHOW
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION AT 925MB...WHERE DRYING HAS
CAUSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS TO SCATTER OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
HERE...TEMPS ARE DROPPING MORE QUICKLY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG APPEARS TO BE GREATEST. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...MORE TOWARD 08-09Z AND MAINLY WEST OF
US 1. THE DRIZZLE IN THE EAST WILL COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE STRATUS THINS A BIT...AND TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF AN GLAZING OF ICE
THIS EVENING...AND NONE HERE AT THE NWS...MANY SECONDARY ROADS ARE
STILL WET ACCORDING TO LAW ENFORCEMENT. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE THROUGH MID MORNING...ROUGHLY
TO PERSON COUNTY TO CUMBERLAND COUNTY AND EAST. HOWEVER...IF
WIDESPREAD FOG DOES DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THERE MAY
BE SOME ISOLATED IMPACTS FROM FREEZING FOG BY THE MORNING COMMUTE.
WILL MONITOR THIS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US
THURSDAY NIGHT. BETTER GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL PASS MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A BRIEF GLANCING SHOT OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND LIFT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
(THU 21Z TO 06Z FRIDAY)COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER IN PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WITH
LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS AS FCST
SOUNDINGS HOLD ON TO CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NE TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 SOUTH. SKIES WILL
ABRUPTLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS 30
TO 35...COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY WILL BEGIN WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITING THE AREA...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDING
EAST TOWARDS THE REGION... WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALSO BE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST UNTIL
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 50 DEGREES
NORTH TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTH...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF DEGREES OF
WARMTH BY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE NEARLY
OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL MODERATE SOME...WITH LOW/MID 30S EXPECTED.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE THROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN PROGGED TO QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEPER THROUGH AND THEREFORE RESULTS
IN A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS
STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP OVER OUR AREA (AS THE GFS KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP OVER FAR EASTERN NC/OFFSHORE). FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...
BEFORE DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM THURSDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: LIFR CEILINGS AND FOG WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNRISE...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR BY NOON AND VFR THROUGH
SUNSET THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (00-06Z FRI) AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FRIDAY MORNING (12Z FRI) AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...
RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
354 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LOW
CLOUDS...FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AND STRONG WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE INDICATES IFR STRATUS OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
BAND SPREADING SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST
ITERATION OF THE RAP BROUGHT THE STRATUS THROUGH BISMARCK BUT JUST
EAST OF WILLISTON. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KMOT AND KJMS
THIS EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS TREND OF FLURRIES IN THE
BAND OF STRATUS. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AS BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS. LOW LEVEL OMEGA
ALSO REMAINS FROM AROUND MINOT TO JAMESTOWN AND WILL CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS BACK NORTH AND EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW STRATUS ENDS UP
TONIGHT WILL BE A BIG DETERMINANT OF TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 40S WHILE THE NORTH CENTRAL
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS MIGHT REMAIN ONLY IN THE LOWER
20S...WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE BORDER...BUT KEPT MAINLY DRY TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WHICH REMAINS IN
THE DRY SECTOR OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THUS MAIN
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AND/OR SNOW. WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE.
THE MAIN HAZARD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG
WINDS. THE STRONGEST BURST OF WINDS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WEST...AND DURING THE DAY CENTRAL. STRONG
FALL/RISE PRESSURE COUPLET WILL AID WINDS DURING THE MORNING WEST
BUT THIS IS TYPICALLY A TOUGH TIME TO GET STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. FALL/RISE COUPLET MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY WHICH SHOULD HELP AID THE ALREADY STRONG GRADIENT WINDS.
THE COUPLET DOES WEAKEN THOUGH AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME THINK IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WIND HIGHLIGHTS.
ALTHOUGH THINK ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR NOW AND CONTINUE THE MENTION IN THE HWO.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE LOW IS OFF TO OUR EAST...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BREAKS DOWN THE
WESTERN SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION - MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW - SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT TRAVERSES THE STATE FROM
WEST TO EAST. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ARE IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON SMALLER SCALE
IMPULSES...BUT IN GENERAL THEY DEPICT A WESTERN RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST AND GENERAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A GENERAL COOLING TREND FROM HIGHS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY...COOLING TO THE TEENS AND 20S BY
WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE
DURING THIS TIME WILL LEAD TO SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OFF AND ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN KMOT AND KJMS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT
FLURRIES AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO KMOT-KJMS...LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SLIGHT
SHIFT WEST COULD CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS IN KISN/KBIS AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL OUTPUT AND UPDATE FUTURE TAFS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1159 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015
LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF STRATUS
ALONG A 925MB-850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA. THE RAP13 AND
HRRR 925MB RH/CIG FORECAST EXPAND THIS STRATUS SOUTHEAST TO
NEAR/ALONG A MINOT TO JAMESTOWN LINE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS HANDLED WELL.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
STRENGTHENS/TIGHTENS UP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH IT. LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS WILL INDUCE WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED/BELOW FREEZING LAYER POSSIBLY CONDUCIVE TO SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FROM
MINOT TO JAMESTOWN. WILL LOOK MORE INTO THIS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERNIGHT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE 01-02 UTC
RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE THE TREND OF STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA OVERTAKING NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ALL OBSERVATIONS WITH
PRECIPITATION AS OF 03 UTC UNDER THIS DECK ARE REPORTING SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE RAP AND 00 UTC NAM SOUNDINGS AT MINOT SUGGEST FOR
THURSDAY THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LOW
LEVEL SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C AND FEW ICE CRYSTALS ENTERING
THE LAYER FROM ABOVE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL FORGO MENTION FOR
NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS EVALUATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE...OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 2330 UTC. A MILD OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA
THIS EVENING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015
PRECIPITATION ALOFT IS HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING THE GROUND INITIALLY DUE TO A MODERATELY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER. EVENTUALLY THE SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS TAKES OVER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SATURATED UNDER THAT AREA OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW AND ICE PELLETS CONTINUED TO FALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO GRIP THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH UPPER 20S ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO THIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THEY DO SOLAR
INSULATION WILL FURTHER AID IN THE RISE OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH MODERATE WEST WINDS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL OFF TOO
MUCH...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S LIKELY.
THE 12 UTC NAM AND SREF ARE HINTING AT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
AND POTENTIALLY FOG LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY.
PATCHY FOG MAY NEED TO BE ADDED DURING LATER SHIFTS IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. SATURDAY
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE
(12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/SREF) SHOW A LITTLE MORE QPF THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE GFS MUCH
MORE BULLISH AND THE ECMWF ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY
AND CONSISTENT ARE THE HIGH WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIDESPREAD 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WITH TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW NEARLY EVERY DAY OR
EVERY OTHER DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015
AN AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN AND SAG SOUTH NEAR/ALONG A LINE FROM THE KMOT TERMINAL
TO KJMS NEXT 24HR. THIS STRATUS ALSO REPRESENTS A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT AT KMOT AND KJMS.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FARTHER WEST AT
KISN/KDIK/KBIS NEXT 24HR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
242 PM MST THU JAN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND NORMAL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND RUN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE WITH COOLER
TEMPS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE BORDERLAND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE FOG LINGERED A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED EARLIER TODAY AS WEAK
TROFING LINGERED OVER THE AREA AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT NEVER MANAGED
TO MIX DOWN DRIER AIR. WITH THE TROUGH EXITING OVERNIGHT SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS COMBINED WITH
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER
SUNSET. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP OFF AND IT APPEARS THAT THE
MAJOR OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. EARLY AFTERNOON DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THE LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW ELEVATED
DEW POINTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT SOME PATCHY FREEZING
FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SAME AREAS THAT SAW THE
FOG THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SW
OVERNIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE COOLING
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
AFTERWARDS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN FOR A STRETCH OF NICE WEATHER
WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH. BY MID WEEK THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THE GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO CLOSE THIS SYSTEM OFF AS IT CROSSES THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME A SURGE OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE IN
THE FORM OF A BACK DOOR FRONT. WHILE IT IS STILL WAY OUT AT THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO PLACE SOME RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR THE DAY 7 AND 8 TIME FRAMES.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION...
AND WITH NO STRONG ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR...VALLEY RADIATIONAL FOG
MAY REDEVELOP IN A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND
NOT NEARLY AS DENSE AS THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE TULAROSA BASIN.
12Z MET MOS SUGGESTED BRIEF 1/4SM FOR ELP DESPITE 2 DEGREE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...WENT MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE TAFS. ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING...AGAIN MUCH QUICKER THAN TODAY. EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET AND DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB
TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY
WITH LOWLAND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWLANDS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 20S...KEEPING MIN RH VALUES IN
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 800MB...WILL RESULT IN
STARK DEWPOINT CONTRASTS WITH ELEVATION WITH SINGLE DIGIT AND
BELOW-ZERO DEWPOINTS YIELDING MIN RH VALUES INTO THE LOWER TEENS
ABOVE 7500 FEET. THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY COLD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRAZE THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER
SATURDAY...WITH A VERY WEAK EASTERLY PUSH COOLING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY. A BROAD RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS IN THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VENT RATES WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND POSSIBLY
INTO NEXT WEEK AS WARMER/DRIER AIR ALOFT LIMITS MIXING HEIGHTS
AND LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 29 58 32 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 28 59 31 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 27 58 29 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 24 56 29 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 24 46 29 47 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 29 57 29 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 25 54 29 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 27 58 27 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 28 55 29 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 30 59 33 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 26 56 27 61 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 29 59 31 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 29 53 31 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
FABENS 27 58 31 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 27 58 29 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 28 58 32 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 23 56 27 58 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
HATCH 25 57 29 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 28 57 29 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 27 55 30 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 25 58 33 56 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 23 51 29 51 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 24 51 30 53 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 25 55 27 56 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 29 56 31 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 24 56 28 59 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 22 57 27 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 25 53 28 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 23 60 28 62 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 23 57 26 59 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 28 53 30 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 30 57 29 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 25 57 27 63 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 25 58 28 64 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 30 57 31 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
LANEY/HARDIMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
846 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT STALLED OUT JUST NORTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR EARLIER THIS EVENING IS NOW LIFTING NORTH AND EAST. CLEAR
SKIES EXIST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AIDED BY A 40 TO 50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET ADVECTING A VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO
SOUTHERN WI (SEE 17.00Z DVN/OAX SOUNDINGS). LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL WI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EVENTUALLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE ALOFT. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE LATEST TRENDS.
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR MASS AND STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...17.01Z RAP/HRRR HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY
ON FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...KEEPING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FARTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MN. AS A RESULT...
REMOVED FOG FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
FINALLY...17.02Z SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FROM 6 TO 8 DEGREES
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI...COMBINED WITH A VERY SHALLOW ELEVATED
MOIST LAYER (SEE 17.00Z GRB SOUNDING)...SHOULD SQUASH ANY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. REMOVED FREEZING DRIZZLE
MENTION NORTH OF I-90. OVERALL...AN UNEVENTFUL NIGHT WEATHER-WISE
WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MT/IDAHO WILL
BRING SOME SENSIBLE WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG TROUGH ENERGY IN TWO
PARTS...OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL MT-CANADA BORDER AND SECOND PIECE
OVER SRN IDAHO. TWO FRONTS IN THE REGION CAUSING A BIT MORE
CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD/FOG FORECAST TONIGHT. OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY KMKT-KMSN ROUGHLY WITH
COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND CLEARLY MARKED BY
OVERCAST SKIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF IT. SECONDARY FRONT IS ACROSS
SRN IA WITH WARM SECTOR SOUTHWEST WINDS IN A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S /NO SNOW COVER THERE/.
AS THE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE. MOST OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL GO INTO WARMING AND NOT LIFT...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING 5F. THE WEAK LIFT OF 1-3UB/S WILL BE LOCATED
A BIT INTO THE LOWER BASED SATURATED LAYER FOR DZ/FZDZ POTENTIAL
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN FRONT...NEAR AND NORTH OF I-94.
NCEP MODELS SUGGEST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT DEEP SATURATION...THIS WOULD BE A
LIQUID LAYER AND FZDZ. HOWEVER...THE MODEL MOISTURE DEPTH IS
LESSENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT /PER NCEP MODEL SOUNDINGS/ AND
NEAR OR LESS THAN 1KM. THIS SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION GENERATION FROM
THIS LAYER LESS PROBABLE. THUS...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FZDZ IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH MINOR PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED FROM THE MODELS...DIDNT FEEL CONFIDENT IT COULD BE
GENERATED.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE 4-5F RIGHT NOW AND AN INVERTED TEMPERATURE PROFILE...SOME
SNOW MELT TODAY...SO AM CONCERNED WITH MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. WITH
CLEAR SKIES...THINKING THERE COULD BE SOME EVENING FOG FORMATION
IN THE COOLING AFTER SUNDOWN. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT OF
HIGHER AND VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES WOULD TEND TO ADVECT THAT FOG NORTH OR DIMINISH IT. THE
INVERSION IS ALSO STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION
/VERSUS LIFT/. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASING TREND
WITH FOG /HRRR AND RAP RUNS/ AND LATEST 16.15Z SREF IS SLIGHTLY
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH A LARGE 1 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY AREA OVER
SWRN WI-SERN MN. BUT MODELS ARE ALSO BIASED TOWARD SNOW PACK
FOG...ESPECIALLY THE SREF...AS THE FOG FOOTPRINT MATCHES THE SNOW
DEPTH CLOSELY. A CHALLENGE TO KNOW HOW THAT AREA WILL BEHAVE FOR
FOG BUT HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
DENSE FOG.
QG FORCING SUGGESTS THE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT WILL SPLIT THE
FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. KEPT SMALL CHANCES OF
DZ/FZDZ/SN- NORTH OF I-90 SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MISS RIVER. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD CARRY
INTO THE EVENING BASED ON A MIXED-BOUNDARY LAYER AND 0-1KM LAPSE
RATES OVER 8C/KM AND 30-35 KTS AT 1 KM.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
OVERALL A NO/LOW IMPACT WEATHER PERIOD IT SEEMS. ANOTHER SYSTEM
FOR MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ANOTHER WARM UP AND COOL DOWN AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EVENT. OVERALL A TREND IS TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO 17.00Z TAFS AS SURFACE WARM
FRONT HAS STALLED JUST NORTH OF KRST/KLSE AND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH
A 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS IA SHOULD AID IN MVFR
CEILINGS JUST TO THE NORTH OF TAF AIRFIELDS TO MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS ANY SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN FRONTAL POSITION COULD BRING LOWER
CEILINGS BACK OVER TAF SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR
NOW TO REMOVE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS ALSO LESS BULLISH ON FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA...SO BACKED OFF ON LOWER VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY AT KRST.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH RESURGENCE OF LOWER
CEILINGS IN ITS WAKE...SO WILL INTRODUCE CLOUD BASES AT 2500 FT
AGL OR LOWER BEGINNING AT 17.16Z AT KRST AND 17.17Z AT KLSE. WINDS
WILL ALSO PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY AT
KRST WHERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
556 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MT/IDAHO WILL
BRING SOME SENSIBLE WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG TROUGH ENERGY IN TWO
PARTS...OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL MT-CANADA BORDER AND SECOND PIECE
OVER SRN IDAHO. TWO FRONTS IN THE REGION CAUSING A BIT MORE
CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD/FOG FORECAST TONIGHT. OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY KMKT-KMSN ROUGHLY WITH
COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND CLEARLY MARKED BY
OVERCAST SKIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF IT. SECONDARY FRONT IS ACROSS
SRN IA WITH WARM SECTOR SOUTHWEST WINDS IN A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S /NO SNOW COVER THERE/.
AS THE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE. MOST OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL GO INTO WARMING AND NOT LIFT...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING 5F. THE WEAK LIFT OF 1-3UB/S WILL BE LOCATED
A BIT INTO THE LOWER BASED SATURATED LAYER FOR DZ/FZDZ POTENTIAL
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN FRONT...NEAR AND NORTH OF I-94.
NCEP MODELS SUGGEST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT DEEP SATURATION...THIS WOULD BE A
LIQUID LAYER AND FZDZ. HOWEVER...THE MODEL MOISTURE DEPTH IS
LESSENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT /PER NCEP MODEL SOUNDINGS/ AND
NEAR OR LESS THAN 1KM. THIS SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION GENERATION FROM
THIS LAYER LESS PROBABLE. THUS...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FZDZ IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH MINOR PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED FROM THE MODELS...DIDNT FEEL CONFIDENT IT COULD BE
GENERATED.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE 4-5F RIGHT NOW AND AN INVERTED TEMPERATURE PROFILE...SOME
SNOW MELT TODAY...SO AM CONCERNED WITH MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. WITH
CLEAR SKIES...THINKING THERE COULD BE SOME EVENING FOG FORMATION
IN THE COOLING AFTER SUNDOWN. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT OF
HIGHER AND VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES WOULD TEND TO ADVECT THAT FOG NORTH OR DIMINISH IT. THE
INVERSION IS ALSO STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION
/VERSUS LIFT/. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASING TREND
WITH FOG /HRRR AND RAP RUNS/ AND LATEST 16.15Z SREF IS SLIGHTLY
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH A LARGE 1 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY AREA OVER
SWRN WI-SERN MN. BUT MODELS ARE ALSO BIASED TOWARD SNOW PACK
FOG...ESPECIALLY THE SREF...AS THE FOG FOOTPRINT MATCHES THE SNOW
DEPTH CLOSELY. A CHALLENGE TO KNOW HOW THAT AREA WILL BEHAVE FOR
FOG BUT HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
DENSE FOG.
QG FORCING SUGGESTS THE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT WILL SPLIT THE
FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. KEPT SMALL CHANCES OF
DZ/FZDZ/SN- NORTH OF I-90 SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MISS RIVER. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD CARRY
INTO THE EVENING BASED ON A MIXED-BOUNDARY LAYER AND 0-1KM LAPSE
RATES OVER 8C/KM AND 30-35 KTS AT 1 KM.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
OVERALL A NO/LOW IMPACT WEATHER PERIOD IT SEEMS. ANOTHER SYSTEM
FOR MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ANOTHER WARM UP AND COOL DOWN AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EVENT. OVERALL A TREND IS TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO 17.00Z TAFS AS SURFACE WARM
FRONT HAS STALLED JUST NORTH OF KRST/KLSE AND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH
A 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS IA SHOULD AID IN MVFR
CEILINGS JUST TO THE NORTH OF TAF AIRFIELDS TO MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS ANY SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN FRONTAL POSITION COULD BRING LOWER
CEILINGS BACK OVER TAF SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR
NOW TO REMOVE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS ALSO LESS BULLISH ON FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA...SO BACKED OFF ON LOWER VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY AT KRST.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH RESURGENCE OF LOWER
CEILINGS IN ITS WAKE...SO WILL INTRODUCE CLOUD BASES AT 2500 FT
AGL OR LOWER BEGINNING AT 17.16Z AT KRST AND 17.17Z AT KLSE. WINDS
WILL ALSO PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY AT
KRST WHERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
305 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY COLDER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BRIEFLY WARM UP AGAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
BRINGS LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY WITH PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
UPDATE...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS ARE INDICATING CLEAR SKIES OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...LOWERED CLOUD COVER OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH WINDS IN THE 4 TO 8 MPH RANGE
AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE
NEAR TERM AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATER THIS EVENING. RAP AND
HRRR BOTH SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE 925-950MB
LAYER AFTER 02-03Z OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY. BOTH THE NAM
AND OP GFS HINT AT THIS AS WELL. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST AS A PERIOD
OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY
SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH RAP/HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A SHARP INVERSION
PRESENT AT 1000FT AND LOWER. ONE MITIGATING FACTOR THAT WOULD KEEP
ANY FOG LIMITED IS THE INCREASE IN SURFACE FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL KEEP ANY FOG MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR INTO THE EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS...WITH WARM ADVECTION COMMENCING AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT LOWS TO OCCUR MOST AREAS BY LATE EVENING WITH STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THEREAFTER. ENDED UP SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING
MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RETURNING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S BY
12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY STANDS A STRONG CHANCE TO BE THE PICK DAY OF THE MONTH SO
FAR...DESPITE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY. 40-50KT 850MB JET WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
ENSURE A BREEZY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 20MPH
AND GUSTS INTO THE 30-35MPH RANGE.
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
CONSENSUS STARTING TO ZERO IN ON A BAND OF PRECIP SWINGING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...STARTING FIRST AS RAIN THEN MIXING WITH AND
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS LOW LEVEL THERMALS BECOME SUPPORTIVE.
STILL THINK SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS
FAVOR HANGING ONTO LOWER CLOUDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY WITH
SLOW CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
QUICKLY BACK IN BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION RESUMING. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
TEMPS...CONSIDERING TEMP PERFORMANCE SO FAR TODAY AND EXPECTATION OF
A LOT OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY...PREFER LEANING CLOSER TO THE WARMER
MAVMOS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MANY.
TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND
LINGERING CLOUDS. UNDERCUT AGGRESSIVE MAVMOS FOR MONDAY AS WELL...
BUT STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPS RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. TOOK MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
THE EXTENDED LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF UPPER
SYSTEMS DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH COULD
BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILES
INCORPORATING BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ON TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN WITH A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OR SNOW WITH BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS DRY-SLOTTING THE
AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM ON THURSDAY COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. LOW POPS FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND LOOK OK THERE AS
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY THE UPPER WAVE PROVIDING ANY KIND OF LIFT.
REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON
TUESDAY LOOK GOOD BASED ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. THEN...EXPECT SEASONABLE READINGS THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY KLAF THROUGH 14Z. THEN VFR
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER THAT.
SATELLITE SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR REGION. MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOG MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE SOME SNOW MELTED
EARLIER TODAY. WORKING AGAINST THE FOG...WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES OR BETTER.
ON SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS WILL BE THE
RULE AS A SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AFTER
SUNSET ON SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY EVENING CAUSING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/TDUD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1145 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY COLDER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BRIEFLY WARM UP AGAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
BRINGS LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY WITH PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
UPDATE...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS ARE INDICATING CLEAR SKIES OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...LOWERED CLOUD COVER OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH WINDS IN THE 4 TO 8 MPH RANGE
AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE
NEAR TERM AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATER THIS EVENING. RAP AND
HRRR BOTH SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE 925-950MB
LAYER AFTER 02-03Z OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY. BOTH THE NAM
AND OP GFS HINT AT THIS AS WELL. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST AS A PERIOD
OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY
SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH RAP/HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A SHARP INVERSION
PRESENT AT 1000FT AND LOWER. ONE MITIGATING FACTOR THAT WOULD KEEP
ANY FOG LIMITED IS THE INCREASE IN SURFACE FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL KEEP ANY FOG MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR INTO THE EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS...WITH WARM ADVECTION COMMENCING AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT LOWS TO OCCUR MOST AREAS BY LATE EVENING WITH STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THEREAFTER. ENDED UP SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING
MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RETURNING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S BY
12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY STANDS A STRONG CHANCE TO BE THE PICK DAY OF THE MONTH SO
FAR...DESPITE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY. 40-50KT 850MB JET WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
ENSURE A BREEZY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 20MPH
AND GUSTS INTO THE 30-35MPH RANGE.
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
CONSENSUS STARTING TO ZERO IN ON A BAND OF PRECIP SWINGING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...STARTING FIRST AS RAIN THEN MIXING WITH AND
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS LOW LEVEL THERMALS BECOME SUPPORTIVE.
STILL THINK SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS
FAVOR HANGING ONTO LOWER CLOUDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY WITH
SLOW CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
QUICKLY BACK IN BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION RESUMING. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
TEMPS...CONSIDERING TEMP PERFORMANCE SO FAR TODAY AND EXPECTATION OF
A LOT OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY...PREFER LEANING CLOSER TO THE WARMER
MAVMOS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MANY.
TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND
LINGERING CLOUDS. UNDERCUT AGGRESSIVE MAVMOS FOR MONDAY AS WELL...
BUT STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPS RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. TOOK MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 219 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
A COUPLE OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG
TERM. MOISTURE/FORCING ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH EITHER FEATURE...SO
WILL KEEP POPS LOW.
THE FIRST ONE ALSO HAS A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH IT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER...SO LIMITED ANY FREEZING RAIN TO THE NORTH
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY TUESDAY...WITH JUST RAIN OTHERWISE.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE SECOND UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ON THURSDAY. AGAIN WITH
LIMITED FORCING/MOISTURE JUST WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK COOL ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW.
THERE WILL BE A GENERAL COOLING TREND DURING THE EXTENDED AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY KLAF THROUGH 14Z. THEN VFR
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER THAT.
SATELLITE SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR REGION. MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOG MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE SOME SNOW MELTED
EARLIER TODAY. WORKING AGAINST THE FOG...WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES OR BETTER.
ON SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS WILL BE THE
RULE AS A SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AFTER
SUNSET ON SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY EVENING CAUSING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/TDUD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JH
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
343 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015
THE 09Z SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NE ND TODAY. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW THRU GRAND ISLAND NE. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG H85 WAA WAS MOVING THRU OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT AND INTO TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER
THRU A COLD FRONT TODAY...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S AND EVEN SOME 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
AN INTENSIFYING WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROF WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. COLD AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MODEL QPF IS VIRTUALLY NON
EXISTENT..HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIRES MODELS...AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT
WE MAY SEE SOME PRECIP TODAY WITH FROPA AND THE ADVECTION OF COLD
AIR INTO THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.
MODEL TEMPS FOR TODAY WERE ALL TOO LOW. HAD TO INCREASE TEMPS FOR
THE HIGHS TODAY. WITH STRONG H85 WAA AND WARM TEMPS
YESTERDAY...THINK THAT WE WILL HAVE JUST AS WARM IF NOT WARMER
TEMPS TODAY...EVEN WITH THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPS MAY NEED TO
BE RAISED TODAY. THE NAM AGAIN SEEMS TO BE INFLUENCED BY SNOW
COVER AND IS TOO COLD. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
SNOW FLURRIES...WE MAY SEE THEM MELT IN THE LOW LEVELS. AT THIS
TIME ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN-- SEEMS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015
THE MAIN LONG TERM HIGHLIGHTS ARE CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND A WEAK SYSTEM FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT DRY AND CONTINUED MILD
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED THE CONSENSUS BLEND
GUIDANCE UPWARD...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...GIVEN THE DIMINISHING SNOW
COVER. THE FAR SOUTHWEST COULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 50 SUNDAY...AND IN THE
LOW 50S MONDAY.
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUE THEIR GENERAL
CONSENSUS IN ADVERTISING A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY DEPENDING ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGHS IN THE
20S/30S...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL AFFECT DBQ AND POSSIBLY MLI NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
WARM FRONT PASSES. KDVN WSR-88D VWP SAMPLING 40-45 KTS IN LOWER GATES
THUS HAVE MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT WITH
SFC WINDS S/SE AROUND 10-15 KTS. ON SATURDAY SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO
SOUTHWEST AT OR ABOVE 10 KTS AND BECOME GUSTY... EVENTUALLY VEERING
FURTHER TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL
OF COLD FRONT. PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDINESS WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SKIES THEN LIKELY
TO TRANSITION BACK TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY
EVENING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1144 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
Recent water vapor imagery and RAP analysis showing a weak upper
wave moving east across South Dakota and Nebraska, with a much
stronger wave exiting the Pacific Northwest into the Northern
Rockies. Deep west to southwest flow has resulted over Kansas with
dry and warm lower tropospheric conditions and breezy winds
dominating.
With fairly progressive flow in place, the upper waves make quick
progress through the region through Saturday afternoon. The first
wave brings some high clouds through this evening, but more and
somewhat deeper cloud approaches late tonight and exits Saturday
afternoon with the stronger wave. Rather strong lift exits ahead of
this wave, but the still dry mid to lower levels should keep
precipitation in check. Wind speeds diminish a bit this evening but
pick up again Saturday as deeper mixing occurs in strong cold air
advection around 850mb. Winds aloft don`t quite support Advisory
levels but could be close in the north and west. The mixing and only
modified airmass should still allow temps to reach into the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
For Saturday night through Monday, models continue to show a warm
and dry weather pattern with northwest flow aloft and low level
trajectories either from the southwest or west. This low level
pattern does not favor very good moisture return. Therefore think
precip chances are pretty close to zero. Have again trended temps
warmer for Sunday and Monday. Given today`s temps, think there is
a chance the forecast for Sunday may be a little to cool. Although
Models do not show 925MB temps quite as warm as today. Therefore
have kept highs generally around 60. A frontal boundary should
move through the area late Monday. At this time, think it will be
late enough in the day that temps warm into the mid and upper
50s.
Monday night through Friday should see a cooling trend as the
models transition the pattern from northwest flow to more of a
broad cyclonic split flow aloft, as energy tries to dig southwest
into AZ and NM. There should be weak perturbations move across the
forecast area through this period. However with a modified ridge
of high pressure from the Pacific northwest building into the
central plains, there is not much opportunity for moisture to
advect north. The ECMWF remains the only solution to bring very
light QPF into parts of the area, and it has not had the best run
to run continuity of late. Therefore have maintained a dry
forecast through the end of the week. Reinforcing surges of high
pressure from the north and northwest should keep temps closer to
climo with lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A southwesterly
50KT low-level jet at 950mb will continue across terminals through 12Z,
thus if we decouple and winds become lighter then low-level
wind shear criteria will be met through 12Z. The surface winds will
switch to the northwest by late morning and increase to 12 to 16
KTS with higher gusts through the afternoon. Winds will diminish
after sunset.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1037 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015
AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS SOME CIRRUS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES REACHED THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ARE FROM THE WEST BUT QUITE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH WITH SOME
STATIONS REPORTING CALM WINDS. ALOFT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
IS GLIDING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN THE CIRRUS. ANOTHER
STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED OVER MONTANA AND IDAHO.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CALM WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. SKIES SHOULD CLOUD UP LATER TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN
DISTURBANCE SPREADS IN FROM WYOMING. THIS RESULTS IN NEAR-STAGNANT
TEMPERATURES THAT FALL EXTREMELY SLOW AND REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (NORMALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS).
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE SUNRISE...THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR
NORTHWEST FORCES A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS SOLUTION HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT IN SEVERAL GFS...WRF ARW...WRF NMM AND HRRR RUNS.
WINDS WEAKEN SOME FURTHER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN SPEED ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING IS REALIZED.
ALOFT...WINDS HAVE WEAKENED FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE BUT STILL SHOW A
50-60 KT JET 1 KM ABOVE THE SURFACE. INTERESTING ITEM TO NOTE IS
THAT THE STRONGEST JET OF WINDS SHOULD SLIDE FURTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. THIS MEANS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW
EXPECTED GENERALLY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER...IF NOT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME MIXING DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY STRONG
WITH FORECAST LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-7 C/KM. OVERALL LOWERED WIND
SPEEDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES BUT STRONGEST WIND GUSTS MAY
STILL EXCEED 40 KNOTS...OR 46 MPH.
ANOTHER NOTE ABOUT TOMORROW`S WINDS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CONCERNS
THAT SOME BLOWING DUST MAY BE OBSERVED. CHECKED THE SOIL MOISTURE
THIS MORNING AND IT IS QUITE WET. PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS OVER THE
LAST 30 DAYS INDICATES THAT WE HAVE BEEN AROUND 0.5" TO 1.0" ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS DOES NOT EVEN INCLUDE THE WIDESPREAD 0.75" TO 1.00"
RAINS RECEIVED ON DECEMBER 14TH...2014. AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS INDICATES ONE PLUME OF DUST TOMORROW
AROUND HILL CITY...KANSAS. WHILE THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE...THE DUST
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE BLOWING DUST ANYWHERE ELSE SO IT IS
QUITE ISOLATED. BY THIS REASONING AND THAT WE ARE FORECASTING LOWER
WIND SPEEDS OVER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS WITH BLOWING
DUST...HAVE REMOVED BLOWING DUST FROM THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS BRINGING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. ONE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY BUT MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO WITH THE PLAINS DRY
PROBABLY DUE TO LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECT.
MODELS SHOW A BIT MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM SO WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE DRY WITH LACK OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE FOR LIFT. BY
WEDNESDAY MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF
SHOWING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH ASSOCIATED
LIGHT SNOWFALL BUT THE GFS DRY...SO WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIM TO NONE IN THAT PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH AREA. INITIAL
WINDS DURING THE NIGHT WILL BE NEAR 22 KNOTS WITH GUSTS ABOUT 10
KNOTS HIGHER. AFTER THE SUN COMES AND MIXING BEGINS...SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 24 TO 28 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE AT KMCK. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE NEAR SUNSET.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTH THE REGION MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS HAS LINGERED OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ITS EDGES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
ERODING. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MOISTURE LAYOUT
AND SHOWS THE CLOUDS THINNING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BUT CIRRUS WILL BEGIN INCREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED...WHICH WILL MEAN A COOLER DAY
THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE SUN AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW...FAVORED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ATTENTION TURNS TO A PAIR OF WX
DISTURBANCES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MS
VALLEY WILL INTERACT WITH A MORE SUBTLE DISTURBANCE/JET MAX IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM TO EVENTUALLY FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP TO AFFECT
OUR AREA WILL OCCUR BEFORE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES OFF. A STRONG LLJ WILL
BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...TRANSPORTING HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE GFS AND SREF. SPED UP TIMING OF THE PRECIP SLIGHTLY
AND ALSO INCREASED POPS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE A SHARP CUTOFF. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALMOST CERTAINLY LOOKS DRY
FOR THIS ROUND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE SOME PRECIP FROM THE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM LESS THAN A TENTH TO AROUND A HALF INCH
FROM W TO E ACROSS THE DC METRO...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE BAY. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL SPREAD IN THE UPPER TROUGH
SOLUTION THOUGH...SO THERE STILL MAY BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST.
THE MORNING TIMING RAISES CONCERNS ABOUT P-TYPES...AND WITH THE
STRONG WAA ALOFT...CAN ALMOST CERTAINLY RULE OUT SNOW. THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NONDIURNAL TONIGHT...WITH SLOW RISES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE AREAS WHICH WILL REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING AT SUNRISE WOULD LIKELY NOT BE SEEING PRECIP AT THIS POINT.
THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FZRA WOULD
BE THE N/NW BALTIMORE SUBURBS...BUT THIS IS A SMALL CHANCE. A
MIXTURE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS/W MD IF THE
NORTHERN STREAM MOISTURE MOVES IN QUICKLY ENOUGH.
THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO PULL EAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO MAINLY
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. A CORRIDOR OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY/W-CENTRAL MD COULD MEAN SOME
GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL COULD DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY RAIN. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING
INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...ALLOWING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE RIDING ALONG A COLD FRONT PARALLELED TO THE EAST COAST
SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE AND DELMARVA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC BY
SUNDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED WITH THE
FIRST COLD FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE TONGUE OF HIGH PWATS AND
THETA-E AREA. HOWEVER...STRONG DYNAMICS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF I-66 IN
VA AND I-50 IN MD. W-NW WINDS AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG LIFT AND MOISTURE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL ENHANCE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AS SLR RISE. AROUND
AN INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLEARING WILL
OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST...EAST OF THE MTNS.
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AS
SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE NRN ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE 30S IN THE MTNS AND 40S ELSEWHERE MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL START LINING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW
AND NRN PLAINS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY TRAILING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIFFERS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WHERE THE
GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH AND HENCE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION STAYS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH SPREADING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 40S TO NEAR 50S MID WEEK AND ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
THE TROUGH BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MID TO LATE WEEK SHUTTING OFF
ANY COLD CANADIAN AIR FROM REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
TROUGH LEADING TO A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS. NW
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY. INTERMITTENT VFR CIGS SHOULD
ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER FROM NE TO S AS THE
HIGH PASSES...BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 10 KT.
CIGS DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LOWER TOWARD DAWN. STRONG WINDS DEVELOP
ALOFT...BUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAY NOT BE SHARP ENOUGH TO CAUSE
LLWS. RAIN LIKELY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. DCA/BWI/MTN STAND
TO SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF A STEADIER PERIOD OF RAIN AND REDUCED
CIGS/VSBY (POSSIBLE IFR). IAD WILL BE ON THE BORDER. STEADY RAIN
LIKELY ENDS MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT PASSES LATE AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY...ALLOWING THE NORTHERLY
WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS SHOULD STAY
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING RAIN OVER THE WATERS BY DAYBREAK AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG A FEW THOUSAND FEET
ALOFT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MIXING WILL BE LIMITED. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE W-NW.
NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO GUSTY CONDITIONS AND SCA IS LIKELY FOR ALL
THE WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS DEEP MIXING MAY ALLOW 34KT
OR GREATER GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS
MARINE...ADS/HAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1036 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIFR CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL A LITTLE TRICKY AS FAR AS THE END TIME. FMN
WILL BE MOST IMPACTED...GUP STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL AS WELL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS. WIND GRADIENT ALOFT IS
ALSO INCREASING SO EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNSLOPE GUSTS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND SANDIA/MANZANO
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. USED A TEMPO GROUP AT LVS
TO INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN
TERMS OF IMPACT.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...825 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO BEGIN AREAS OF FREEZING FOG PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. KFMN JUST WENT DOWN TO ONE HALF
MILE VISIBILITY IN FREEZING FOG. A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...VISIBILITIES
MAY DROP BELOW ONE HALF MILE AND A THIN GLAZE OF ICE MAY FORM ON
ROADWAYS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
AREAS ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
OVERNIGHT. GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
IT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN...ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM...BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE VERY SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS NORTHWEST NM TODAY.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE FZFG WILL
REFORM. THOUGH THERE ARE ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE
HORIZON...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BEFORE SUNRISE. THE HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS/FOG. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FZFG TO THE GRIDS AROUND
FMN AND GUP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PULL THE TRIGGER
ON A FZFG ADVISORY ATTM.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP NE NM OVERNIGHT...AND
THOUGH THERE IS INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT FOR
PRECIPITATION...MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
NEAR 50KT ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN.
FAVORED LOCALES ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...INCLUDING CQC...WILL BE IN STORE FOR A BREEZY TO WINDY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.
ACCOMPANING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DID LOWER TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FOR SAT AFTN. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE
TEXAS BORDER BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONT QUICKLY WASHES OUT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY/WINDY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR
ON SUNDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH SUN AND MON WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY WILL SEND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN
NM...THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AREAWIDE. TEMPS ON TUES
WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL.
MODELS CONTINUE TO REALLY STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES/CROSSES NM ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT...WHICH RESULTS
IN THE GFS HAVING VERY LITTLE PRECIP DESPITE THE BACK DOOR FRONT
REINFORCEMENT...AND THE EC SHOWING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
FURTHER...THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SYSTEM ON ITS
HEELS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM AND MODELS ARE HAVING AN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING THEM. NONETHELESS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION MID WEEK...BUT TOO SOON TO SAY HOW MUCH OR WHAT AREAS
WILL BE FAVORED. STAY TUNED.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AND RELATIVELY WARMER PATTERN HAS PREVAILED TODAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING.
POOR VENTILATION HAS BEEN IN PLACE TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THEME INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY`S LIGHT BREEZES OVER THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN ZONES ARE ALSO COUPLING WITH STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS
AND A STUBBORN LAYER OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE STATE. THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE HAMPERED THE
WARMING TREND IN NORTHWEST NM...BUT OTHERWISE THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
HAVE YIELDED NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. DOWNSLOPING BREEZES
HAVE REALLY HELPED THE NORTHEAST WARM UP EVEN MORE...SOME 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THESE EASTERN DOWNSLOPE AREAS ARE WHERE RH HAS DROPPED
THE LOWEST...EVEN BELOW 10 PERCENT...BUT THE SNOW MELT AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER NORTHWESTERN NM HAVE KEPT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND RH
INTACT. TONIGHT`S RECOVERY WILL BE EXCELLENT IN THE SAN JUAN
BASIN...AND POOR TO FAIR IN THE NORTHEAST WITH DOWNSLOPING BREEZES
STAYING ALIVE ALL NIGHT. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL
ENHANCE SOME OF THESE WINDS...TURNING THEM GUSTY IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVERNIGHT.
A FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF NM SATURDAY
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES. CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE LITTLE CHANGE
TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES. POOR VENTILATION
WILL PERSIST. INTO SUNDAY NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT RELAX SOME AND A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH REDEVELOPS. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND WHAT THEY LOST ON SATURDAY...AND
THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE.
BY MONDAY A STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OBSERVED OVER NM AS A
GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE TROUGH USHERS ANOTHER COOLER AIR MASS CLOSER
TO THE STATE. SOME BETTER VENTILATION RATES ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED
FOR MONDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE REDUCE WITH NEWER
MODEL RUNS. THIS APPROACH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE INTO NM MONDAY
NIGHT...YIELDING MUCH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS INTO TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A TROUGH THAT TAKES SHAPE OVER
AZ AND SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WOULD SPREAD SOME HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME WHILE DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE. THE FINER DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT ARE STILL BEING RESOLVED...BUT THIS COOLER AND
WETTER PERIOD WILL CERTAINLY PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501-503.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
329 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER TROF
AXIS THAT IS NOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...NEARLY
STATIONARY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KY/VA IS NOT
PROGGED TO MAKE ANY FURTHER PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BEFORE THE PARENT
HIGH PRESSURE EJECTS OUT TO SEA. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AN UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE
AND FRONT WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING EAST WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
UPGLIDE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPS. THE FCST
FOR SATURDAY WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING WITH NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...SFC FLOW WILL VEER SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MOISTURE TO ADVECT
INLAND ACROSS THE LOW COUNTRY WHILE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVES ALONG THE GULF COASTLINE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
FEATURES AND ABOVE MENTIONED INCREASING LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE WILL LEAD
TO MENTIONABLE POPS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THUS THE FCST FEATURES LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE I77 CORRIDOR FOR THE ENCROACHING
COASTAL MOISTURE FLUX WHILE ANOTHER SWATH OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE
INDUCED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH ELEVATION
PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS. DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE DEPTH...NOT EXPECTING
ICE NUCLEI TO BECOME ACTIVE AT ANYTIME BEFORE 12Z THUS OPTED FOR FZ
RA/DZ FOR A FEW HOURS. QPF REMAINS REALLY LOW THEREFORE FCST DOES
NOT FEATURE ANY ICE ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE ON SUNDAY
REMAINS THE FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE SHORT RANGE. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE BEST FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL PLAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST RIGHT AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THAT LEAVES US WITH A
DEVELOPING NW FLOW EVENT THAT DEVELOPS IMMEDIATELY UPON THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORT WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE
ARRIVED UNTIL AFTER THE WAVE AXIS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE MTNS...SO WE
MIGHT YET ONLY HAVE A LIGHT RAIN...WITH A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
SOME OF THE DEEPER MTN VALLEYS WHERE COLD AIR WOULD BE TRAPPED.
PRECIP TYPES WOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW AFTER ABOUT 15Z AS
COLDER AIR COMES IN AND PROFILES ARE SATURATED HIGH ENOUGH TO
ACTIVATE ICE NUCLEI. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW LONG THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A COMPROMISE WAS
MADE BETWEEN THE LONGER DURATION GFS AND THE QUICKER DRYING SEEN ON
THE NAM/ECMWF. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET. A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND SHOULD
CROSS OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FOR
TUESDAY. THAT WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AND THEN OFF THE SE COAST ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE AFEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME AGREEMENT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS TO THE EFFECTS OF THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF
WAVES...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THAT. THE MODELS SHOW
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE LATE TUESDAY AND THEN TAKE THE SHORT
WAVE PAST TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT SHOULD HELP TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE BACK UP AGAINST THE W SIDE OF THE MTNS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANOTHER WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR WED NIGHT THAT WILL BRING A
SFC BOUNDARY DOWN AND LAY IT OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A LOW CHC OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THE W SIDE OF
THE MTNS...AND SHOULD KEEP THE AREA E OF THE MTNS DRY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN DROP A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH
THE FRONT WASHING OUT.
WHICH BRINGS US TO THE LATE WEEK PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE
TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SUPPRESS THE NEXT SYSTEM
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...SUCH THAT THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP IN THE
NEW ECMWF REMAINS TO THE S OF THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS EVEN MORE SUPPRESSED...TO THE POINT
WHERE IT DOES NOT EVEN DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPSHOT IS THAT BOTH OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS DRY
UP ANY LIGHT PRECIP ON THE W SLOPES OF THE MTNS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN LEAVE US BEREFT OF PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
ONGOING FCST HAD A MID-RANGE CHC OF SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS AND NRN
TIER OF ZONES. WILL CUT THE POP IN HALF AS A START...AND WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ONLY BECAUSE IT SEEMS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS MIGHT HAVE OVERREACTED A BIT AND WILL
EVENTUALLY PULL THE SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER N. TEMPS WILL BE ADJUSTED
UP A BIT WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE EXTENT OF ANY SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR LEVEL VISB THIS MORNING
AT KCLT AND KAND. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST RECENT HRRR RUN KEEPS VISB AT OR ABOVE
5SM AT BOTH SITES. THAT SAID...KEPT BR IN BOTH TAFS BY WAY OF A
TEMPO FOR EACH SITE. ALL OTHER SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT AMIDST LIGHT/CALM NORTHERLY WINDS. SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS
IN ALOFT LEADING TO FEW/SCT CLOUDS AT ALL SITES. LASTLY...INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SLIDE A PLUME OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 NEAR PERIODS ENDS. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
VEERING SOUTHERLY BY MIDDAY AT ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES PREVAILS THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. PRECIP AND CIG CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY ACRS THE MTNS. BEYOND THAT
FCST REMAINS DRY INTO MIDWEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z 02-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 70%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 70%
KAND MED 66% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 70%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1222 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THORUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST SATURDAY...NICE CALM/COOL/CLEAR NIGHT IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONTINUES TO YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH
A FEW HIGH ELEVATIONS SITES BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER. CURRENT FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE ASIDE FOR MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMEPRATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE MADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 930 PM EST FRIDAY...AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS OF THE EAST
COAST..WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE WAS ALONG THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVES
MOVING BETWEEN THE TWO WERE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
TX...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY UPSTREAM IN THE NW. A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM CAPE COD TO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED NO
CLOUD COVER BETWEEN WV AND THE GULF STATES.
WITH A DRY AIR MASS...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL TAKE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
EVEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL TO A
FEW SPOTS.
THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THRU THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PATTERN BRIEFLY LOOKS CAD-
LIKE BUT CANNOT GET LOCKED IN DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THAT TROUGH. THE
LLVL FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SE BY MIDDAY USHERING IN WEAK WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SC COAST. SOME CLOUDINESS MAY WORK
INTO THE PIEDMONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 LATE IN THE DAY...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY. WITHOUT DOWNSLOPING...TEMPS
ARE NOT LIKELY TO RISE QUITE AS WARM...BUT SHOULD BE A COUPLE
DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE OTHER HALF WHERE THE RETURN FLOW WILL
HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST FRI...A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN APPROACHING TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...THE NOSE OF A SHALLOW
HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS...WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. ISOLD TO SCT
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST WITH THE UPPER
FEATURES AND ALSO OVER THE EXTREME E NEARER THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE WRN MTNS
EARLY. THE TRAILING MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIKELY IN THE
12Z TO 18Z PERIOD. ANTICIPATE THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE IN THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...WHILE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE LIMITED UNDER THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR AREA. SOME VERY LIGHT NW FLOW SNOW ACCUMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ALSO EXPECT
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT POST FROPA IN THE COLD
ADVECTION. WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS THE 850 MB JET BRIEFLY APPROACHES 45 TO 50 KT.
SHALLOW UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ON MONDAY. EXPECT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME WARMING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
GRADUALLY SHUT OFF AND INSOLATION IS STRONG.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST...THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE SOLUTIONS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL DIG SE THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST MON NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ON
TUE. ONLY A CHANNELED PORTION OF THE BETTER VORTICITY WITH THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NRN TIER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...BUT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE WARRANTING ONLY WRN MTN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES INTO WED.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SWD TO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY
THU...WITH BELOW CLIMO TEMPS SETTING UP LATE WEEK.
MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE ANTICIPATED LATE
WEEK SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES THE TREND OF FEATURING A MORE
ACTIVE NRN STREAM WAVE ARRIVING THU NIGHT/FRI...WHILE THE
INTERESTING SRN STREAM WAVE ALONG THE WRN GULF COAST GETS DAMPENED.
THERE IS SOME SFC REFLECTION ALONG THE GULF COASTAL STALLED
BOUNDARY...BUT THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOW COMPLETELY DRY ON
FRIDAY WITH THE MOISTURE SHUNTED SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE GEFS MEAN IS
RATHER WET COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS MEMBER...AND THE 12Z
ECMWF SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH N OF THE
DEVELOPING NRN GULF OF MEXICO LOW. ALL TOLD...HIGH UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS...AND NOTHING BETTER THAN LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
CAN BE FEATURED...WITH A CONSENSUS RAIN/SNOW LINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE HEART OF THE GSP FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR LEVEL VISB THIS MORNING
AT KCLT AND KAND. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST RECENT HRRR RUN KEEPS VISB AT OR ABOVE
5SM AT BOTH SITES. THAT SAID...KEPT BR IN BOTH TAFS BY WAY OF A
TEMPO FOR EACH SITE. ALL OTHER SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT AMIDST LIGHT/CALM NORTHERLY WINDS. SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS
IN ALOFT LEADING TO FEW/SCT CLOUDS AT ALL SITES. LASTLY...INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SLIDE A PLUME OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 NEAR PERIODS ENDS. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
VEERING SOUTHERLY BY MIDDAY AT ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES PREVAILS THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. PRECIP AND CIG CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY ACRS THE MTNS. BEYOND THAT
FCST REMAINS DRY INTO MIDWEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% MED 71% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 66% LOW 32% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% LOW 57% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% MED 75% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 66% LOW 57% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 66% MED 71% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1012 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
MOST OF THE ECHOES ON RADAR ARE NOT CURRENTLY REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER OTHER THAN BEING AN HOUR TOO SLOW THE RUC IS RIGHT ON
TRACK WITH RECOGNIZING AN ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS EDMUNDS/MCPHERSON COUNTIES. THIS PRECIP IS ALL
FREEZING RAIN AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE RAPIDLY RISING TO ABOVE FREEZING BEHIND
THESE ENHANCED ECHOES. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND
BRIEF BEFORE ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN. THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WITH
EVEN SOME AREAS OF FOG STILL LINGERING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THIS EVENING YET BEFORE THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...HAVE KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE FAR EAST
AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF FOG. HI RES MODELS STILL INDICATING SOME
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA SO
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 20/30 POPS IN THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE THERMAL
PROFILES...A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS NICELY WITH A CORE OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS AT 850 MB
RIGHT OVER THE CWA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW PRETTY DECENT POTENTIAL
FOR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS SO HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY
FOR TOMORROW. ITS SPLIT UP TO START ACROSS CENTRAL SD AT
12Z...WITH STRONGER WINDS PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ALREADY BE SUBSIDING A BIT ACROSS
CENTRAL SD. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ON SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS. IF
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN AREAS...VSBY
WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES.
SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE A QUIETER DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE OR UPPER SUPPORT. ANOTHER LOW WILL DROP FROM CANADA OVER
MINNESOTA WITH THE STRONGER WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A BOUNDARY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AFTER THE
LONG TERM PERIOD ENDS...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A SMALL POP FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN MID WEEK WITH MID 20S TO LOWER
30S FOR HIGHS BEFORE A BIT OF A REBOUND BACK TO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST. LOOK
FOR WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND INCREASE
INTO THE 20 TO 35 KNOT RANGE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. A MIX OF PRECIP
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. EARLY MORNING PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
SNOW NEAR KATY WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBY IN BLSN BEFORE MIXING WITH
RAIN BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TO 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/
SATURDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-
POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-
DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM CST SATURDAY FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR BIG STONE-
TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1135 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT STALLED OUT JUST NORTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR EARLIER THIS EVENING IS NOW LIFTING NORTH AND EAST. CLEAR
SKIES EXIST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AIDED BY A 40 TO 50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET ADVECTING A VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO
SOUTHERN WI (SEE 17.00Z DVN/OAX SOUNDINGS). LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL WI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EVENTUALLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE ALOFT. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE LATEST TRENDS.
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR MASS AND STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...17.01Z RAP/HRRR HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY
ON FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...KEEPING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FARTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MN. AS A RESULT...
REMOVED FOG FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
FINALLY...17.02Z SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FROM 6 TO 8 DEGREES
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI...COMBINED WITH A VERY SHALLOW ELEVATED
MOIST LAYER (SEE 17.00Z GRB SOUNDING)...SHOULD SQUASH ANY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. REMOVED FREEZING DRIZZLE
MENTION NORTH OF I-90. OVERALL...AN UNEVENTFUL NIGHT WEATHER-WISE
WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MT/IDAHO WILL
BRING SOME SENSIBLE WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG TROUGH ENERGY IN TWO
PARTS...OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL MT-CANADA BORDER AND SECOND PIECE
OVER SRN IDAHO. TWO FRONTS IN THE REGION CAUSING A BIT MORE
CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD/FOG FORECAST TONIGHT. OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY KMKT-KMSN ROUGHLY WITH
COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND CLEARLY MARKED BY
OVERCAST SKIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF IT. SECONDARY FRONT IS ACROSS
SRN IA WITH WARM SECTOR SOUTHWEST WINDS IN A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S /NO SNOW COVER THERE/.
AS THE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE. MOST OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL GO INTO WARMING AND NOT LIFT...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING 5F. THE WEAK LIFT OF 1-3UB/S WILL BE LOCATED
A BIT INTO THE LOWER BASED SATURATED LAYER FOR DZ/FZDZ POTENTIAL
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN FRONT...NEAR AND NORTH OF I-94.
NCEP MODELS SUGGEST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT DEEP SATURATION...THIS WOULD BE A
LIQUID LAYER AND FZDZ. HOWEVER...THE MODEL MOISTURE DEPTH IS
LESSENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT /PER NCEP MODEL SOUNDINGS/ AND
NEAR OR LESS THAN 1KM. THIS SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION GENERATION FROM
THIS LAYER LESS PROBABLE. THUS...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FZDZ IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH MINOR PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED FROM THE MODELS...DIDNT FEEL CONFIDENT IT COULD BE
GENERATED.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE 4-5F RIGHT NOW AND AN INVERTED TEMPERATURE PROFILE...SOME
SNOW MELT TODAY...SO AM CONCERNED WITH MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. WITH
CLEAR SKIES...THINKING THERE COULD BE SOME EVENING FOG FORMATION
IN THE COOLING AFTER SUNDOWN. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT OF
HIGHER AND VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES WOULD TEND TO ADVECT THAT FOG NORTH OR DIMINISH IT. THE
INVERSION IS ALSO STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION
/VERSUS LIFT/. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASING TREND
WITH FOG /HRRR AND RAP RUNS/ AND LATEST 16.15Z SREF IS SLIGHTLY
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH A LARGE 1 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY AREA OVER
SWRN WI-SERN MN. BUT MODELS ARE ALSO BIASED TOWARD SNOW PACK
FOG...ESPECIALLY THE SREF...AS THE FOG FOOTPRINT MATCHES THE SNOW
DEPTH CLOSELY. A CHALLENGE TO KNOW HOW THAT AREA WILL BEHAVE FOR
FOG BUT HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
DENSE FOG.
QG FORCING SUGGESTS THE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT WILL SPLIT THE
FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. KEPT SMALL CHANCES OF
DZ/FZDZ/SN- NORTH OF I-90 SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MISS RIVER. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD CARRY
INTO THE EVENING BASED ON A MIXED-BOUNDARY LAYER AND 0-1KM LAPSE
RATES OVER 8C/KM AND 30-35 KTS AT 1 KM.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
OVERALL A NO/LOW IMPACT WEATHER PERIOD IT SEEMS. ANOTHER SYSTEM
FOR MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ANOTHER WARM UP AND COOL DOWN AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EVENT. OVERALL A TREND IS TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
SOME LOW STRATUS HAS REDEVELOPED IN CLEARING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT...IMPACTING KLSE. THIS IS NOT HANDLED WELL IN LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE...BUT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. OTHERWISE...MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT AGL WILL QUICKLY
OVERTAKE THE UPPER MI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT STILL
FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS TAF AIRFIELDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING/
EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE
PRIMARY IMPACT BEING A RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND INCREASED WESTERLY WIND WITH MAXIMUM
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST SAT JAN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK. A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER COULD BRING MAINLY PATCHY DENSE FOG NEAR THE
COAST SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND WARMER DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THE ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF SAN DIEGO SHOWS A COUPLE OF WEAK STABLE
LAYERS BELOW ABOUT 6000 FEET...THEN A GRADUAL DROP OFF IN THE
TEMPERATURES. THE SOUNDING DEW POINT TRACE INDICATES THE AIRMASS IS
VERY DRY...SHOWING ABOUT A 20 DEGREE DEPRESSION BELOW 6000 FEET.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BELOW 50 DEGREES...EVEN AT THE COAST...SHOWING
RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS. A PEEK AT THE CANSAC WRF...LOCAL
WRF...AND HRRR SHOW OFFSHORE DRAINAGE FLOW AT THE COAST...AND VERY
WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVES AND GAP FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD KILL
ANY CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING. BY SUNDAY THE WRF SHOWS A VERY SHALLOW INTRUSION OF
MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST...AND COULD BRING SOME PATCHY
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD ALSO BE THE CASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL
MODERATE TEMPS ALONG THE COAST...SO WE COULD EVEN SEE A BIT OF A
COOLING TREND THERE.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS SOME MINOR TROUGHING
ON TAP FOR THE REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES SHOULD LOWER AT THAT
TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR MARINE LAYER DEEPENING WITH THIS
TROUGH...BUT NOCTURNAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE
COASTAL AREAS AND FAR WESTERN VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD
FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
171000Z...NEAR THE COAST...A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER MAY CAUSE LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG BETWEEN ABOUT 07-15Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH VSBY RESTRICTION AS LOW AS 1/2 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS A FEW
HUNDRED FEET AGL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AND A FEW MILES INLAND.
OTHERWISE...FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BEACHES...
200 AM...A FRESH WNW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED SURF...WITH SETS
NEAR 6 TO 7 FT...AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHEST
SURF WILL BE ALONG WEST FACING BEACHES IN NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ABOVE 7 FEET
DURING THE MORNINGS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL CREATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...AS SURF
BECOMES ELEVATED ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...BROTHERTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
630 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015
WITH STRONG H85 WAA...H85 TEMPS AROUND +9C AND 900 HPA TEMPS OF +11C
OFF THE KDVN RAOB...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN THE NEED TO RAISE TEMPS FOR TODAY AND THE AM. HAVE
RAISED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES CWA WIDE. THERE MAY BE A NEED TO
INCREASE TEMPS AGAIN LATER THIS AM. THE 11Z RUC SUGGESTS HIGHS IN
NE MO IN THE MID 50S...NOT READY TO BITE ON THAT YET...HOWEVER IT
IS THE BEST MODEL IN REPRESENTING OVERALL TEMPS TODAY. ALL OF THE
OTHER MODELS ARE ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 5 DEGREES TOO COLD. NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015
THE 09Z SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NE ND TODAY. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW THRU GRAND ISLAND NE. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG H85 WAA WAS MOVING THRU OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT AND INTO TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER
THRU A COLD FRONT TODAY...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S AND EVEN SOME 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
AN INTENSIFYING WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROF WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. COLD AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MODEL QPF IS VIRTUALLY NON
EXISTENT..HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIRES MODELS...AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT
WE MAY SEE SOME PRECIP TODAY WITH FROPA AND THE ADVECTION OF COLD
AIR INTO THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.
MODEL TEMPS FOR TODAY WERE ALL TOO LOW. HAD TO INCREASE TEMPS FOR
THE HIGHS TODAY. WITH STRONG H85 WAA AND WARM TEMPS
YESTERDAY...THINK THAT WE WILL HAVE JUST AS WARM IF NOT WARMER
TEMPS TODAY...EVEN WITH THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPS MAY NEED TO
BE RAISED TODAY. THE NAM AGAIN SEEMS TO BE INFLUENCED BY SNOW
COVER AND IS TOO COLD. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
SNOW FLURRIES...WE MAY SEE THEM MELT IN THE LOW LEVELS. AT THIS
TIME ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN-- SEEMS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015
THE MAIN LONG TERM HIGHLIGHTS ARE CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND A WEAK SYSTEM FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT DRY AND CONTINUED MILD
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED THE CONSENSUS BLEND
GUIDANCE UPWARD...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...GIVEN THE DIMINISHING SNOW
COVER. THE FAR SOUTHWEST COULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 50 SUNDAY...AND IN THE
LOW 50S MONDAY.
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUE THEIR GENERAL
CONSENSUS IN ADVERTISING A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY DEPENDING ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGHS IN THE
20S/30S...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015
WAA AND LLJ ARE LEADING TO SOME WIND SHEAR ISSUES THIS AM. THIS
SHOULD WANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS. SNOW FLURRIES MAY
BE POSSIBLE AT MLI...BRL AND DBQ THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE FLURRY OCCURRENCE. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO
WNW THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE CAA.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
304 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...
259 PM CST
THROUGH MONDAY...
AFTER MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND THEN POSSIBLE FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW. THE
PARENT LOW STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE LAKES...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
SHOWS UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND ALL THE
WAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS A FAIRLY GENTLE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING SOME MOSTLY ELEVATED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...BUT SFC
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND BELOW CLOUD
BASES OF 5000 FT OR MORE. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE ALOFT AND THE BEST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAILING THE SFC FRONT...MID TO LOWER LEVELS SLOWLY
SATURATE BUT THEN HIGHER LEVELS START TO DRY OUT. MODELS ALSO ARE
SHOWING DECENT FGEN AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE AIR IN
THAT REGION IS NOT FAVORABLY COLD OR SATURATED ENOUGH FOR
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW GROWTH. FINALLY...LAKE EFFECTS IN NW INDIANA ALSO
ARE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY MILD AIR AND MORE WESTERLY THAN NORTH OR
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN SUMMARY...EXPECT THE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
TO PERSIST THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES LATE WITH DIURNAL COOLING.
COLDER AIR MIGHT BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS IS NEARLY
AS WARM AS WHAT WE ARE SEEING WITH TODAYS TEMPERATURES. FOR THAT
REASON...WILL ONLY DROP FCST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
30S...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PLACES IN THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF OUR AREA REACH 40 AGAIN WITH CLEARER SKIES
AND LESS SNOW COVER.
MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...LIKE TODAY PERHAPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LENNING
&&
.LONG TERM...
259 PM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
DETERMINISTIC MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT GENERALLY AGREE ON
BRINGING IT VERY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO
HAVE A DEEPER AND MORE ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE ALOFT...AND SOME MODELS
ARE HINTING AT MESOSCALE SUPPORT ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO
NARROW DOWN THE EXTENT AND AMOUNTS OF ANY SNOW THAT MIGHT DEVELOP.
WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR...SOME AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW TENTHS EVEN WITHOUT ASSISTANCE FROM MESOSCALE FORCING. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW ALSO RAISES THE IDEA OF PTYPE CONCERNS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AFTER ONE LAST SEASONABLY MILD DAY TUESDAY...OR AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY...MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING OUT WEST AND A DEEPENING TOUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SUPPORT THE ARRIVAL OF A COLDER AIRMASS LATE
TUESDAY WITH THE WEEKS COLDEST AIR SETTLING IN WEDNESDAY AND HANGING
AROUND AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY. SECONDARY COLD FRONTS AND WEAK UPPER
WAVES WILL SUPPORT ONGOING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE WEEK.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...MILDER AIR MAY ARRIVE AGAIN FRIDAY OR LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A BROADER AND DEEPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KT.
* COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST...STILL
GUSTY 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT.
* MVFR CIGS DEVELOP WITH/BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES
POSSIBLE LATE.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AT MIDDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
TO NEAR 30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND EASING A BIT AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY PASSES DURING THE EVENING. WEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS STILL IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE.
LOW LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH ONLY VFR
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER MVFR DECK BEHIND COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
STRONGER SINKING AIR HELPS SCATTER THINGS OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FLURRIES BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...THOUGH THEY SHOULD NOT HAVE A NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON
TERMINALS. ADD TO THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH IN WIND/GUST TRENDS.
* HIGH IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. MEDIUM-HIGH IN TIMING.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AT NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
136 PM CST
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND OVER THE LAKE.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF GALES WILL BE ENDING...SO I WILL
ALLOW THE GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 3 PM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A WESTERLY WIND
OVER THE LAKE INTO SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 25
TO 30 KT RANGE TONIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY ABATE TO 15 TO 25 KT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE BY
EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...A
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY APPROACH THE WESTERN LAKES BY
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...SO A GRADUAL UPTAKE IN WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS UP AROUND 25 KT LOOKING
TO BE A GOOD BET LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD ALSO
IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
250 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015
20z/2 PM surface map shows deepening 991 mb low pressure nw of Lake
Superior with its cold front extending southward across western WI
to near the IA/IL border into central MO. This front will sweep
eastward across central and eastern IL during this evening, shifting
breezy ssw winds 15-25 mph and gusts 25-35 mph to the WNW with its
passage and diminishing to 10-20 mph tonight. A fairly strong upper
level trof over western MN to the NE/IA border to push eastward into
IL by 06Z/midnight tonight and to the IN/OH border by sunrise
Sunday. Already increased clouds this afternoon and tonight as cloud
levels lower tonight. But still think light measureable mixed
precipitation will be mainly east and ne of IL over Indiana and the
Great Lakes region since moisture limited over central IL. So
continued with chance of flurries and sprinkles over central IL this
evening and ending chances from west to east during overnight as
short wave trof axis passes to the east. Lows mostly in the lower
30s tonight with upper 20s near Galesburg and mid 30s near the
Wabash river by Lawrenceville.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015
The upper air pattern across the lower 48 will continue to keep
the very cold air locked up over northern Canada with a more active
southern stream shunting the more significant precipitation well
to our south during this period. Several disturbances embedded in
the west to northwest flow pattern will track mainly to our north
during this period keeping us mild into early next week with little
in the way of significant rain or snow expected with these fast
moving shortwaves.
The upper trof and attendant frontal boundary that pushed across our
area today will be well off to our east by Sunday morning. Forecast
soundings showing quite a bit of low level moisture in place into
early Sunday morning with drier air filtering in from the west and
northwest during the day. Satellite data and upstream surface
observations showing a small band of lower clouds tracking southeast
behind the cool front but the HRRR model has been consistenly showing
the backedge of those clouds pushing into west central Illinois just
after midnight tonight, so with our low level flowing becoming less
cyclonic during the day Sunday, will decrease the cloud cover from
west to east in the morning. Not a lot of cold air available behind
the system late tonight into Sunday so temps will be above normal
again Sunday afternoon, although not quite as mild as this afternoon.
The next shortwave forecast to dig into the lower Great Lakes on
Tuesday with low chance POPs confined to the north starting later
Monday night and holding into Tuesday evening across the east. Once
again, not a major rain or snow system with very little moisture
available to the upper wave. After that, a series of fast moving
shortwaves will track east southeast into the lower Great Lakes with
the surface lows moving mainly to our north. By Thursday, we see some
disagreement with the models in the speed and strength of the approaching
shortwave with the GFS much more aggressive with the upper wave and
further south track on the surface low than the current ECMWF. For now,
will side more with the weaker ECMWF which would lead to a further track
to the north later in the week, which would once again keep any low
chance POPs confined to the north.
Towards the end of this forecast period models are starting to show
some ridging building northward around 140 degrees Longitude with
500 mb heights starting to lower over the central U.S. which would
lead to some colder temps for the last week of January. Will see
if the medium and long range models hold on to this idea in the next
several days. In the mean time, we should see a return to more seasonably
cold weather starting on Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015
Strong ssw winds 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts this afternoon to
veer wsw by early evening and diminish to 10-15 kts this evening.
West winds overnight and Sunday behind cold front with gusts 15-20
kts Sunday morning. VFR conditions expected to continue this
afternoon with 2.5-5k ft ceilings moving eastward behind cold
front during early evening 00Z-02Z. Continued VCSH tonight with
chance of sprinkles or flurries with best chances along I-74 from
03Z-09Z time frame. Elongated 994 mb low pressure north of MN over
western Ontario with its cold front extending southward through
eastern IA into nw MO will sweel front east across IL during
early/mid evening hours with strong upper level trof shifting
eastward into IL by 06Z/midnight tonight and to along the OH/IN
border by 12Z/6 am Sunday. Low clouds could scatter out from 15-18Z
Sunday morning at DEC and especially SPI while low clouds hanging
on along I-74.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
555 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP
MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
FANTASTIC AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION AS A COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT OVERACHIEVING TEMPS
TO THE REGION. 20Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S WHERE LINGERING
SNOW COVER PERSISTED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES TO EVEN SOME MID 50S OVER
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGH
SUNSET...WITH SKIES QUICKLY BECOMING CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS APPROACHES. HI-RES
GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR BOTH HIGHLIGHT LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PULLING
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WITH AN UPPER
WAVE TRAILING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING THAT PRECIP INITIALLY WILL FALL AS A
LIGHT RAIN. LOW LEVEL THERMALS WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW MIXING
IN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AFTER 06Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY IMPACTS FROM LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS
ALL NIGHT. COULD SEE A TENTH OR SO OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
PERSISTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT PEAK GUSTS AT 35-40MPH
THROUGH SUNSET...DROPPING BACK TO 25-30MPH DURING THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING BELOW 20MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEPARTS
OFF TO THE EAST.
TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE OUTPACED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED LOWS TONIGHT.
GENERALLY WENT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR LOWS FOR THIS
REASON...WITH ALL BUT THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY ABOVE 32F THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AND PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES TO LINGER OVER EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE MORNING AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT DIVES INTO THE BACK END
OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
PRIMARY ISSUE FOR SUNDAY WILL FOCUS ON THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH
CONSIDERING THE COLD ADVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY
SCOURING OUT DURING THE DAY. OP GFS AND NAM BOTH MAINTAIN A
HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF MOISTURE AT 925MB INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
AIR FINALLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BY LATE DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED
PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA AND HELD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND INTO THE EVENING
FURTHER EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING BY TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD FINALLY ENABLE SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS MONDAY IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U S AND AN UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING
WITH IT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH BULK OF THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT
HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY
SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF PREDOMINANT
LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED IMPACT FROM CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...LEANED TOWARDS
COOLER METMOS FOR HIGHS. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MAVMOS FOR MONDAY
HIGHS...THEN UNDERCUT ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP. TOOK A MOS
BLEND ON LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE DETAILS OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEMS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT. HAD TO ALTER
SUPERBLEND/S POPS...OTHERWISE GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO IT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES.
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONE
SYSTEM EXITS. FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEPT A DRY FORECAST AND
REMOVED ANY SUPERBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SAKE OF
CONTINUITY.
ON THURSDAY SUPERBLEND IS DRY BUT AGAIN FOR SAKE OF CONTINUITY KEPT
SOME SMALL POPS IN THE FAR EAST. ON FRIDAY...12Z GFS AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL BRING A CLIPPER THROUGH THE AREA. 12Z ECMWF IS DRY.
SUPERBLEND IS DRY...BUT WITH 2 MODELS SHOWING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 554 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE ROUTES WILL BRING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW
TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT ANY ONE POINT AT ANY ONE TIME IS
LOW. THE USE OF VICINITY IN THE TAFS CAPTURES THIS BETTER THAN
EXPLICITLY FORECASTING PRECIPITATION. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN ANY SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. CEILINGS WILL
BECOME MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS ARE GOING VEER FROM SOUTH TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN
WEST SUNDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BEGINNING
LATE TOMORROW MORNING EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS DAYTIME
HEATING ALLOWS AIR TO MIX DOWN FROM ABOVE THE SURFACE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
550 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP
MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
FANTASTIC AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION AS A COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT OVERACHIEVING TEMPS
TO THE REGION. 20Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S WHERE LINGERING
SNOW COVER PERSISTED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES TO EVEN SOME MID 50S OVER
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGH
SUNSET...WITH SKIES QUICKLY BECOMING CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS APPROACHES. HI-RES
GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR BOTH HIGHLIGHT LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PULLING
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WITH AN UPPER
WAVE TRAILING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING THAT PRECIP INITIALLY WILL FALL AS A
LIGHT RAIN. LOW LEVEL THERMALS WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW MIXING
IN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AFTER 06Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY IMPACTS FROM LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS
ALL NIGHT. COULD SEE A TENTH OR SO OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
PERSISTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT PEAK GUSTS AT 35-40MPH
THROUGH SUNSET...DROPPING BACK TO 25-30MPH DURING THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING BELOW 20MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEPARTS
OFF TO THE EAST.
TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE OUTPACED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED LOWS TONIGHT.
GENERALLY WENT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR LOWS FOR THIS
REASON...WITH ALL BUT THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY ABOVE 32F THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AND PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES TO LINGER OVER EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE MORNING AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT DIVES INTO THE BACK END
OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
PRIMARY ISSUE FOR SUNDAY WILL FOCUS ON THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH
CONSIDERING THE COLD ADVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY
SCOURING OUT DURING THE DAY. OP GFS AND NAM BOTH MAINTAIN A
HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF MOISTURE AT 925MB INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
AIR FINALLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BY LATE DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED
PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA AND HELD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND INTO THE EVENING
FURTHER EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING BY TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD FINALLY ENABLE SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS MONDAY IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U S AND AN UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING
WITH IT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH BULK OF THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT
HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY
SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF PREDOMINANT
LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED IMPACT FROM CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...LEANED TOWARDS
COOLER METMOS FOR HIGHS. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MAVMOS FOR MONDAY
HIGHS...THEN UNDERCUT ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP. TOOK A MOS
BLEND ON LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE DETAILS OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEMS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT. HAD TO ALTER
SUPERBLEND/S POPS...OTHERWISE GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO IT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES.
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONE
SYSTEM EXITS. FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEPT A DRY FORECAST AND
REMOVED ANY SUPERBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SAKE OF
CONTINUITY.
ON THURSDAY SUPERBLEND IS DRY BUT AGAIN FOR SAKE OF CONTINUITY KEPT
SOME SMALL POPS IN THE FAR EAST. ON FRIDAY...12Z GFS AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL BRING A CLIPPER THROUGH THE AREA. 12Z ECMWF IS DRY.
SUPERBLEND IS DRY...BUT WITH 2 MODELS SHOWING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 550 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE ROUTES WILL BRING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW
TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT ANY ONE POINT AT ANY ONE TIME IS
LOW. THE USE OF VICINITY IN THE TAFS CAPTURES THIS BETTER THAN
EXPLICITLY FORECASTING PRECIPITATION. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN ANY SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. CEILINGS WILL
BECOME MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS ARE GOING VEER FROM SOUTH TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN
WEST SUNDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BEGINNING
LATE TOMORROW MORNING EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS DAYTIME
HEATING ALLOWS AIR TO MIX DOWN FROM ABOVE THE SURFACE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP
MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
FANTASTIC AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION AS A COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT OVERACHIEVING TEMPS
TO THE REGION. 20Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S WHERE LINGERING
SNOW COVER PERSISTED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES TO EVEN SOME MID 50S OVER
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGH
SUNSET...WITH SKIES QUICKLY BECOMING CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS APPROACHES. HI-RES
GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR BOTH HIGHLIGHT LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PULLING
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WITH AN UPPER
WAVE TRAILING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING THAT PRECIP INITIALLY WILL FALL AS A
LIGHT RAIN. LOW LEVEL THERMALS WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW MIXING
IN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AFTER 06Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY IMPACTS FROM LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS
ALL NIGHT. COULD SEE A TENTH OR SO OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
PERSISTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT PEAK GUSTS AT 35-40MPH
THROUGH SUNSET...DROPPING BACK TO 25-30MPH DURING THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING BELOW 20MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEPARTS
OFF TO THE EAST.
TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE OUTPACED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED LOWS TONIGHT.
GENERALLY WENT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR LOWS FOR THIS
REASON...WITH ALL BUT THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY ABOVE 32F THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AND PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES TO LINGER OVER EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE MORNING AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT DIVES INTO THE BACK END
OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
PRIMARY ISSUE FOR SUNDAY WILL FOCUS ON THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH
CONSIDERING THE COLD ADVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY
SCOURING OUT DURING THE DAY. OP GFS AND NAM BOTH MAINTAIN A
HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF MOISTURE AT 925MB INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
AIR FINALLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BY LATE DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED
PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA AND HELD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND INTO THE EVENING
FURTHER EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING BY TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD FINALLY ENABLE SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS MONDAY IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U S AND AN UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING
WITH IT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH BULK OF THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT
HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY
SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF PREDOMINANT
LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED IMPACT FROM CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...LEANED TOWARDS
COOLER METMOS FOR HIGHS. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MAVMOS FOR MONDAY
HIGHS...THEN UNDERCUT ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP. TOOK A MOS
BLEND ON LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE DETAILS OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEMS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT. HAD TO ALTER
SUPERBLEND/S POPS...OTHERWISE GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO IT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES.
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONE
SYSTEM EXITS. FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEPT A DRY FORECAST AND
REMOVED ANY SUPERBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SAKE OF
CONTINUITY.
ON THURSDAY SUPERBLEND IS DRY BUT AGAIN FOR SAKE OF CONTINUITY KEPT
SOME SMALL POPS IN THE FAR EAST. ON FRIDAY...12Z GFS AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL BRING A CLIPPER THROUGH THE AREA. 12Z ECMWF IS DRY.
SUPERBLEND IS DRY...BUT WITH 2 MODELS SHOWING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 172100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR THROUGH 03Z OR SO...THEN MVFR. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25KT THROUGH
03Z OR SO.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25KT AND SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 10KT.
AFTER 03Z EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
PERHAPS MVFR VISIBILITY. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND PERHAPS CHANGE TO
SNOW AFTER 06Z BUT STILL ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY.
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS FROM ONSET THROUGH 12Z BUT TOO
UNCERTAIN TO TRY AND PIN DOWN SPECIFIC TIMING. WITH ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED KEPT IT SIMPLE WITH PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS.
AFTER 12Z EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50/JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP
MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
FANTASTIC AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION AS A COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT OVERACHIEVING TEMPS
TO THE REGION. 20Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S WHERE LINGERING
SNOW COVER PERSISTED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES TO EVEN SOME MID 50S OVER
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGH
SUNSET...WITH SKIES QUICKLY BECOMING CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS APPROACHES. HI-RES
GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR BOTH HIGHLIGHT LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PULLING
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WITH AN UPPER
WAVE TRAILING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING THAT PRECIP INITIALLY WILL FALL AS A
LIGHT RAIN. LOW LEVEL THERMALS WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW MIXING
IN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AFTER 06Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY IMPACTS FROM LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS
ALL NIGHT. COULD SEE A TENTH OR SO OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
PERSISTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT PEAK GUSTS AT 35-40MPH
THROUGH SUNSET...DROPPING BACK TO 25-30MPH DURING THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING BELOW 20MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEPARTS
OFF TO THE EAST.
TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE OUTPACED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED LOWS TONIGHT.
GENERALLY WENT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR LOWS FOR THIS
REASON...WITH ALL BUT THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY ABOVE 32F THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AND PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES TO LINGER OVER EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE MORNING AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT DIVES INTO THE BACK END
OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
PRIMARY ISSUE FOR SUNDAY WILL FOCUS ON THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH
CONSIDERING THE COLD ADVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY
SCOURING OUT DURING THE DAY. OP GFS AND NAM BOTH MAINTAIN A
HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF MOISTURE AT 925MB INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
AIR FINALLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BY LATE DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED
PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA AND HELD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND INTO THE EVENING
FURTHER EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING BY TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD FINALLY ENABLE SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS MONDAY IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U S AND AN UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING
WITH IT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH BULK OF THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT
HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY
SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF PREDOMINANT
LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED IMPACT FROM CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...LEANED TOWARDS
COOLER METMOS FOR HIGHS. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MAVMOS FOR MONDAY
HIGHS...THEN UNDERCUT ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP. TOOK A MOS
BLEND ON LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE DETAILS OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEMS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT. HAD TO ALTER
SUPERBLEND/S POPS...OTHERWISE GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO IT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES.
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONE
SYSTEM EXITS. FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEPT A DRY FORECAST AND
REMOVED ANY SUPERBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SAKE OF
CONTINUITY.
ON THURSDAY SUPERBLEND IS DRY BUT AGAIN FOR SAKE OF CONTINUITY KEPT
SOME SMALL POPS IN THE FAR EAST. ON FRIDAY...12Z GFS AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL BRING A CLIPPER THROUGH THE AREA. 12Z ECMWF IS DRY.
SUPERBLEND IS DRY...BUT WITH 2 MODELS SHOWING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015
VFR THROUGH 03Z OR SO...THEN MVFR. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25KT THROUGH
03Z OR SO.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25KT AND SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 10KT.
AFTER 03Z EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
PERHAPS MVFR VISIBILITY. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND PERHAPS CHANGE TO
SNOW AFTER 06Z BUT STILL ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY.
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS FROM ONSET THROUGH 12Z BUT TOO
UNCERTAIN TO TRY AND PIN DOWN SPECIFIC TIMING. WITH ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED KEPT IT SIMPLE WITH PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS.
AFTER 12Z EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
305 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. LIKE LAST NIGHT...VISIBILITIES
MAY FALL BELOW ONE HALF MILE CREATING A THIN GLAZE OF ICE ON
ROADWAYS. ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY WINDS WILL AID IN WARMING UP
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMTH
WILL REMAIN IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
WILL YO-YO BACK DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY THANKS TO A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION RETURNS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE ONCE AGAIN PLAGUED NW NM TODAY. THOUGH THE
FOG LIFTED AT OR SHORTLY BEFORE NOON...THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED
KEEPING TEMPERATURES QUITE COLD AND WELL BELOW ANY GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
GIVEN THAT THEY DID NOT GET OUT OF THE MUCK TODAY...IT IS HIGHLY
LIKELY THAT THE SAME WILL HAPPEN AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR PROGS SUPPORT THIS...AND THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FROM 9PM TONIGHT TIL 10AM SUN FOR ZONES
501-502-504. FOR ZONE 504...THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE WEST/NW OF
THE CONTDVD.
MEANWHILE...THE BACK DOOR FRONT OR WIND SHIFT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED
BEHIND IT. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO NOTED BEHIND IT...THUS AS
OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS BACK DOOR FRONTS...NO LOW CLOUDS OR FOG ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE NW MOST LIKELY
AGAIN...AND ADDITIONALLY...A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN...WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR FARMINGTON AND SURROUNDING AREAS FOR MAX TEMPS.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS
ALLOWING FOR BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY WINDS. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR BETWEEN 5 AND NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. IN FACT...EXCEPT FOR THE FMN AREA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS SHOULD ALSO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THOUGH NOT AS
MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE QUITE WARM...THOUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS NW NM.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS IN STORE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TUESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES
FROM MONDAYS READINGS. WESTERN AREAS WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL...THANKS TO A VEIL OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE BACK DOOR FRONT LOOKS TO BE REINFORCED LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN TEMPS CONTINUING TO DROP. WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT ORGANIZING STORM
SYSTEM. MODELS INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
INTO AZ OUT OF NW FLOW ALOFT LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS
INDICATE A BAND OF MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NM ALONG THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WEDNESDAY AFTN...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN IF
ANY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS. THE EC IS THE MOST
BULLISH ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP...BUT EVEN THEN WOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHAT WILL HAPPEN THEREAFTER. THE
GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM CLOSING OFF NEAR THE BOOTHEEL WHILE THE EC
CONTINUES TO MIGRATE THE TROUGH EASTWARD. BASED ON THE
LATTER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY END BY FRIDAY...THOUGH IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT...PRECIP COULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM ENERGY DROPPING INTO
THE REGION BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS WONKY AT BEST. SIDED MORE WITH THE
DRIER EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE FRI AND BEYOND FOR NOW. STAY TUNED.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE VENTILATION RATES...WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY POOR TO FAIR.
COLD FRONT MADE IT THROUGH ROSWELL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SHROUD THE NORTHWEST TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE IT IS
SUNNY AND RATHER COMFORTABLE FOR MID JANUARY.
TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU. DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN AS WELL
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE EAST BUT 70S AND 80S IN THE WEST.
A NICE DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH
FILTERED BY HIGH CLOUDS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ONTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HIGHER AT MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS TROUGH. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST...WHILE ELSEWHERE
THEY WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S AND 30S...40S IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE
CLOUDS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY ONCE AGAIN AND HOLD DOWN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE THE
VENT RATES THAT WILL BE POOR IN MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
AREAS...WITH SOME FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST OWING TO THE WINDS
HELPING RAISE THE MIXING HEIGHTS SOME. NIGHTTIME RH RECOVERIES WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S AND 60S IN THE EAST AND MOSTLY BETWEEN 80 AND
100 PERCENT IN THE WEST.
THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE
AND EVEN MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT COULD REACH THE NORTHEAST AND PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT
LOWER THAN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOWER OVER THE EAST...WITH MODERATE
BREEZES FROM CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA ROSA. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN
THE 20S AND 30S. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE A BIT MOST AREAS...BUT
STILL BE FAIR TO POOR IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FAIR OR
BETTER IN THE EAST. THERE WILL EVEN BE SOME VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENT RATES IN THE NORTHEAST THANKS TO HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH
COOLER DAY ON TAP FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY SO IN
THE EAST. MIN RH VALUES WILL ONLY LOWER TO THE 30S AND 40S. TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE EAST DURING THE MORNING
DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. VENT RATES WILL DROP BACK TO
MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR VALUES TUESDAY...EXCEPT SOME GOOD RATES RIGHT
ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER.
A REINFORCING FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND WE
COULD SEE OUR FIRST LIGHT PRECIPITATION OF THE WEEK DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE
NIGHTTIME RH RECOVERIES WILL BE MOSTLY EXCELLENT.
A STRENGTHENING TROUGH TO OUR WEST MAY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE STATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH CHILLY...BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME MIN RH VALUES ONLY IN THE 40S TO
60S. AGAIN THE VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
MOST MODELS THEN DRY THINGS OUT FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
CHJ
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
FOG TRYING TO LIFT AT FMN BUT PROCESS IS SLOW. MVFR FOG BUT IFR TO
LIFR CIGS NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR ONLY A FEW
HOURS AT FMN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THEN DROPPING DOWN TO 1/2SM AND
OVC002 BY MID EVENING AGAIN AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON NORTH
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT FROM CAO TO CVN...AROUND 20 KT GUSTS
FROM TCC TO ROW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNSET. 40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 25 43 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 14 48 15 50 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 17 47 18 50 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 22 56 17 57 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 21 52 20 54 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 16 54 17 57 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 22 56 21 58 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 25 62 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 8 44 8 46 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 25 47 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 22 47 24 50 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 10 40 12 43 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 11 44 16 42 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 9 45 14 45 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 12 44 14 47 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 21 52 23 54 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 23 53 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 24 45 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 22 49 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 27 51 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 27 54 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 22 55 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 23 54 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 21 55 21 58 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 27 53 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 28 60 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 26 49 28 53 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 27 51 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 22 51 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 26 48 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 25 51 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 27 56 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 25 57 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 24 56 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 17 57 21 58 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 21 57 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 25 60 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 31 69 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 26 63 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 32 67 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 31 64 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 32 67 31 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 32 63 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 31 64 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 31 66 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 24 67 28 70 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 28 66 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 28 62 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501-503-504.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
305 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH SUNDAY IS ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
CURRENTLY...A MID LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS DIGGING TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA WITH A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW EXTENDS SOUTH TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTH OF IT THROUGH NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS
OCCURRING IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH WHERE LIFT/MOISTURE IS DEEPER. THE QUESTION
IS WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP HAVE SHOWN THAT THE MOISTURE/LIFT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH SOUTH OF CLARK AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AM NOT EXPECTING
DRIZZLE TO BE AN ISSUE BECAUSE WHERE THERE IS LIFT...THE MOISTURE
GETS DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THAT
FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH ANY GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK ALREADY INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER IN WESTERN TO
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE CORE OF THE TROUGH/LOW WILL BE
CLOSER.
WHILE WE LIKELY WILL NOT HIT 40 AGAIN TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP MUCH BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH THE MAIN POOL OF COLDER
850MB TRACKING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015
THE NEXT FEATURE TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT IS
ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT DROPS DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE FIRST ROUND FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW APPEARS TO COME IN ON MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THOUGH TRENDS FROM ALL OF THE GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE
17.12Z GFS SEEM TO BE TAKING THIS BELT OF LIFT FROM WARM AIR
ADVECTION FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THE 17.12Z ECMWF HAS A UNIQUE
SOLUTION WITH BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA WITH AN
850MB TROUGH. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW APPEAR TO COME
IN ON TUESDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THERMAL PROFILES
LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING ALL SNOW
BUT FORCING LOOKS WEAK SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. BEYOND THAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THOUGH THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY ON THE MILD SIDE. A
COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE POTENTIALLY OUT THERE AS WELL THOUGH
TIMING/TRACK IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015
LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN MN DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. FRONT PASSING KRST RIGHT AT 18Z AND KLSE
SHORTLY. WARM TEMPS AND MID CLOUD AHEAD OF FRONT WITH MVFR CLOUD
BEHIND. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT AS WELL...GUSTING UP CLOSE
TO 30 KTS FOR KRST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
BUT CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. MODELS DO SUGGEST CLEARING PRIOR TO SUNRISE...IN
THE 10Z ...BUT PREFERRED TO PLAY IT A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC...ESPECIALLY AT KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...MW