Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/15/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
202 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
EAST OF PHOENIX. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MUCH DRIER AIR AND
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER
AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAIN BAND WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
SHOWERS MOVED OUT OF CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING INTO THE PHOENIX
AREA LATE IN THE MORNING...AND NOW IS PUSHING INTO THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH...BUT THERE WERE A FEW LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE. THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS RAIN IS NOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE VERTICAL ASCENT IS
NOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA NEAR A 120 KT UPPER JET STREAK.
DRY AIR ALOFT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
UPPER LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TODAY MAINLY LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES
SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO THE WEST OF PHOENIX AND SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS FORM IN THESE
SUNNY AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY...ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
THE LATEST HI-RES HRRR AND WRF4KM RUNS SHOWS THE BULK OF THE RAIN
ENDING BY EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
MAIN VORT MAX AND PVA ANOMALY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA
SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD. NOT WORRIED ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR MUCH SNOW
TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS NOT UNUSUALLY COLD OR DEEP AND
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ALOFT INDICATE FREEZING LEVEL REMAINING AOA 7K
FT. THEREFORE...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE POPULATION
CENTERS/TRANSPORTATION CORRIDORS WITH ONLY A DUSTING ON THE PEAKS OF
SRN GILA COUNTY LATER TONIGHT. AS THE LOW CENTER AND COLD CORE
SHIFTS OVER EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
WEDNESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE COLD CORE...BUT PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF ERN ARIZONA.
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
STRONGER ZONAL PACIFIC JET ENERGY WILL FORCE A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK...UNLOCKING THE PREVAILING
BLOCKED FLOW INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN. SHORTWAVE
FEATURES OVER THE CONUS WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE AND
RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH FLAT RIDGING PREDOMINATING THE
SWRN REGION. AS A RESULT...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE EXHIBITS VERY LOW
FORECAST SPREAD WITH H5 HEIGHTS OSCILLATING AROUND A 580DM RANGE AND
H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR +10C. BASED ON HISTORICAL BIASES DURING SIMILAR
PATTERN EVOLUTION...HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS THE WARMEST GUIDANCE
PACKAGES YIELDING FORECAST HIGHS AT LEAST 5F ABOVE AVERAGE. EVEN
THIS APPROACH MAY BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DAYS OF FULL INSOLATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AS OF 130 PM
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS HAD PUSHED INTO
EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...AND WERE MOSTLY LOCATED TO THE
EAST OF THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES THRU 22Z OR SO...WITH CONTINUED CLEARING
EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS WILL RISE AND SHOULD MOSTLY
RANGE FROM 5-8K FEET THROUGH 00Z OR SO BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY OF THE
LOW CIGS THAT WERE SEEN EARLIER...UNLESS AN ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWER
WERE TO REDEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVE...MOST CLOUD
DECKS WILL BE FEW TO SCT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER LIGHT
FAVORING THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT THE TAF SITES.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING CU WITH BASES GENLY BETWEEN 6-9K FEET.
EXPECT GENLY CLEAR SKIES BY EARLY EVENING...CONTINUING INTO THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AT
BLH BUT SHOULD QUIET DOWN QUICKLY AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND
REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
OR MORE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...HUMIDITIES WILL STAY A BIT ELEVATED EACH DAY WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE
DESERTS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY
DIURNAL IN NATURE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN/MO
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
902 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ARIZONA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MUCH DRIER AIR AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER AFTER THIS
SYSTEM PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH SLOWLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTH AND THE MAIN
VORT MAX IS NOW ENTERING EXTREME NORTHWEST ARIZONA. MODEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS SEEN ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE VORT
MAX STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO NEAR PARKER AZ. THIS
FORCING ALONG WITH DIFLUENCE ALOFT IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A BAND
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WHICH IS NOW JUST ENTERING NORTHERN
MARICOPA COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING AND AS THE BAND SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD...AREAS FROM
NORTH PHOENIX...THE EAST VALLEY...AND GILA COUNTY WILL SEE A DECENT
SHOT OF MEASURABLE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF
HIGHLIGHTING THE BEST POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON
TRACK AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD THEN JUST BE FOCUSED TO THE EAST OF
PHOENIX THIS EVENING. AFTER A DECENT BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CAN EXPECT SOME DAYTIME COLD CORE SHOWERS TO
AFFECT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF GILA COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RATHER VIGOROUS VORTICITY CENTER AND ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY WERE
DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. JET
ENERGY ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS WAVE WAS ACTING TO PULL AN
OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED -26C H5 COLD CORE SOUTH WHILE ALSO FORCING
LARGE SCALE DIFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
CONSEQUENTLY...EMBEDDED CELLS OF DEEPER CONVECTION AND NUMEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND
EXTENDING THROUGH MOHAVE COUNTY DESPITE ONLY MARGINAL LAPSE RATES
AND EXTREMELY LIMITED MUCAPE. WHILE THE BULK OF DYNAMICAL ASCENT IS
SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE CENTER TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION (AS EVIDENCED BY A BLOSSOMING BAROCLINIC LEAF APPEARANCE ON
WV SATELLITE)...SUFFICIENT ASCENT WILL STILL EXIST NEAR THE
ADVANCING COLD CORE IMPACTING WEATHER THROUGH CNTRL ARIZONA.
OPERATIONAL MODEL DPROG/DT HAS LARGELY STEADIED IN THE PAST SEVERAL
ITERATIONS BRINGING THE CNTRL H5 COLD CORE TOWARDS CENTRAL ARIZONA
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WHILE OVERALL PWATS ARE NOT
OVERWHELMING...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE SYSTEM
CHARACTERIZED BY FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE H8-H7 LAYER AND A
CORRESPONDING NARROW REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND THE 300K
LEVEL. SOME DEGREE OF DOWNSLOPING FLOW FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NRN ARIZONA COULD BE A HINDRANCE TOWARDS MORE PROLONGED ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE PROCESSES...AND HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX NATURALLY WOULD EXPERIENCE THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. BEST PERFORMING HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS MATCH A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF A NARROW BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
RAPIDLY PROPAGATING THROUGH THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY THUNDER MENTION IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN
BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING LITTLE TO NO AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS STILL INDICATE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PROCESSES PRESENT.
OTHERWISE...THE SYSTEM IS NOT UNUSUALLY COLD OR DEEP AND
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ALOFT INDICATE FREEZING LEVEL REMAINING AOA 7K
FT. THEREFORE...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE POPULATION
CENTERS/TRANSPORTATION CORRIDORS WITH ONLY A DUSTING ON THE PEAKS OF
SRN GILA COUNTY LATER TONIGHT. SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
COLD CORE...BUT PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF ERN
ARIZONA.
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
STRONGER ZONAL PACIFIC JET ENERGY WILL FORCE A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK...UNLOCKING THE PREVAILING
BLOCKED FLOW INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN. SHORTWAVE
FEATURES OVER THE CONUS WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE AND
RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH FLAT RIDGING PREDOMINATING THE
SWRN REGION. AS A RESULT...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE EXHIBITS VERY LOW
FORECAST SPREAD WITH H5 HEIGHTS OSCILLATING AROUND A 580DM RANGE AND
H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR +10C. BASED ON HISTORICAL BIASES DURING SIMILAR
PATTERN EVOLUTION...HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS THE WARMEST GUIDANCE
PACKAGES YIELDING FORECAST HIGHS AT LEAST 5F ABOVE AVERAGE. EVEN
THIS APPROACH MAY BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DAYS OF FULL INSOLATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE AREA AS OF 11Z.
BASED ON HRRR AND HI-RES NCEP WRFS...ANTICIPATE SHOWERS TO MAKE
THEIR WAY INTO THE PHOENIX TERMINALS BETWEEN 16Z-18Z AND LINGER
UNTIL 22Z-00Z. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...COULD SEE
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS. I DID...HOWEVER...BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO AROUND 4000-5000FT
COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AND CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 00Z.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
IR SATELLITE INDICATES SOME CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. SHOULD SEE THESE 5000-6000FT
CEILINGS LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT EITHER SE CA SITE.
WINDS COULD BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AT BLH BUT SHOULD QUIET DOWN
QUICKLY AFTER 00Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AND REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED HUMIDITIES BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
435 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ARIZONA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MUCH DRIER AIR AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER AFTER THIS
SYSTEM PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH SLOWLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER VIGOROUS VORTICITY CENTER AND ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY WERE
DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. JET
ENERGY ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS WAVE WAS ACTING TO PULL AN
OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED -26C H5 COLD CORE SOUTH WHILE ALSO FORCING
LARGE SCALE DIFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
CONSEQUENTLY...EMBEDDED CELLS OF DEEPER CONVECTION AND NUMEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND
EXTENDING THROUGH MOHAVE COUNTY DESPITE ONLY MARGINAL LAPSE RATES
AND EXTREMELY LIMITED MUCAPE. WHILE THE BULK OF DYNAMICAL ASCENT IS
SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE CENTER TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION (AS EVIDENCED BY A BLOSSOMING BAROCLINIC LEAF APPEARANCE ON
WV SATELLITE)...SUFFICIENT ASCENT WILL STILL EXIST NEAR THE
ADVANCING COLD CORE IMPACTING WEATHER THROUGH CNTRL ARIZONA.
OPERATIONAL MODEL DPROG/DT HAS LARGELY STEADIED IN THE PAST SEVERAL
ITERATIONS BRINGING THE CNTRL H5 COLD CORE TOWARDS CENTRAL ARIZONA
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WHILE OVERALL PWATS ARE NOT
OVERWHELMING...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE SYSTEM
CHARACTERIZED BY FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE H8-H7 LAYER AND A
CORRESPONDING NARROW REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND THE 300K
LEVEL. SOME DEGREE OF DOWNSLOPING FLOW FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NRN ARIZONA COULD BE A HINDRANCE TOWARDS MORE PROLONGED ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE PROCESSES...AND HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX NATURALLY WOULD EXPERIENCE THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. BEST PERFORMING HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS MATCH A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF A NARROW BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
RAPIDLY PROPAGATING THROUGH THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY THUNDER MENTION IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN
BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING LITTLE TO NO AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS STILL INDICATE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PROCESSES PRESENT.
OTHERWISE...THE SYSTEM IS NOT UNUSUALLY COLD OR DEEP AND
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ALOFT INDICATE FREEZING LEVEL REMAINING AOA 7K
FT. THEREFORE...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE POPULATION
CENTERS/TRANSPORTATION CORRIDORS WITH ONLY A DUSTING ON THE PEAKS OF
SRN GILA COUNTY LATER TONIGHT. SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
COLD CORE...BUT PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF ERN
ARIZONA.
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
STRONGER ZONAL PACIFIC JET ENERGY WILL FORCE A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK...UNLOCKING THE PREVAILING
BLOCKED FLOW INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN. SHORTWAVE
FEATURES OVER THE CONUS WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE AND
RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH FLAT RIDGING PREDOMINATING THE
SWRN REGION. AS A RESULT...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE EXHIBITS VERY LOW
FORECAST SPREAD WITH H5 HEIGHTS OSCILLATING AROUND A 580DM RANGE AND
H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR +10C. BASED ON HISTORICAL BIASES DURING SIMILAR
PATTERN EVOLUTION...HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS THE WARMEST GUIDANCE
PACKAGES YIELDING FORECAST HIGHS AT LEAST 5F ABOVE AVERAGE. EVEN
THIS APPROACH MAY BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DAYS OF FULL INSOLATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE AREA AS OF 11Z.
BASED ON HRRR AND HI-RES NCEP WRFS...ANTICIPATE SHOWERS TO MAKE
THEIR WAY INTO THE PHOENIX TERMINALS BETWEEN 16Z-18Z AND LINGER
UNTIL 22Z-00Z. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...COULD SEE
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS. I DID...HOWEVER...BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO AROUND 4000-5000FT
COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AND CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 00Z.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
IR SATELLITE INDICATES SOME CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. SHOULD SEE THESE 5000-6000FT
CEILINGS LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT EITHER SE CA SITE.
WINDS COULD BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AT BLH BUT SHOULD QUIET DOWN
QUICKLY AFTER 00Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AND REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED HUMIDITIES BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS JUST DROPPED BELOW THE UTAH STATE LINE INTO
ARIZONA AS MOIST SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. ALONG AND JUST N OF INTERSTATE 70...FLOW HAS TURNED
EASTERLY WITH RADAR SHOWING RETURNS THAT ARE MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A RATHER BROAD AREA OF
DEFORMATION THAT APPEARS TO BE PANNING OUT WITH SOME DISTINCT
BANDS OF PRECIP HAVING SET UP OVER THE REGION. UNDER THESE
BANDS...EXPECT PRECIP TO PICK UP SOME BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN INCREASE TO RAIN
AND SNOW TOTALS. SPEAKING OF...MANY REPORTS OF DECENT SNOWFALL
WITH MONTEZUMA COUNTY REPORTING 6 TO 8 INCHES...LA PLATA COUNTY
CAME IN WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES AND ARCHULETA COUNTY REPORTS 8 TO 12
INCHES IN SOME SPOTS. NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW RATHER WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FOR THE SAN JUANS AND AREAS SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THIS
LOOKS WAY OVERDONE. HRRR IS MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE AND ALSO SHIFTS
THE BEST PRECIP SOUTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES
SHOW PLUME OF MOISTURE STEADILY DROPPING EAST AND SOUTH SO THINK
HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY THEN...A FEW MORE INCHES...1 TO 3...FOR THE MOUNTAINS
WITH VALLEYS POSSIBLY SEEING ANOTHER INCH OR TWO. CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS
CONTINUE THROUGH 6PM SO WILL KEEP THEM GOING.
FOR WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH LESS CLOUDS UP NORTH
AND MORE DOWN SOUTH WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY
BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE FOG AND HOW THICK AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT
WILL BE AS AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO THE
EVAPORATING SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY SOUTH. TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMUP TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING A SERIES OF RIDGES AND TROUGHS
ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FOR THE MOST
PART...OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF...OR ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE AT BEST OF ANY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DISTURBANCE THAT
PASSES. ALSO TIMING WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT FOR THESE FAST MOVING
WAVES.
ON THU AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A
FLATTENING RIDGE THAT WASHES OUT AS IT GETS PUSHED EAST THU NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY...THEN WILL BRUSH OUR FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
EXCEPT FOR THE LATEST/12Z ECMWF...THE MODELS HAVE INDICATED THAT
THIS WAVE WILL JUST BARELY BRUSH OUR NORTHEAST CORNER...WITH THE
FLOW MAINLY STAYING ZONAL. THE 12Z EC HOWEVER IS MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN EARLIER RUNS WHICH COULD MEAN A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW...STILL
STAYING MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP
THE GENERALLY DRY FORECAST FOR NOW BEFORE BUYING OFF ON THIS
STRENGTHENING TREND.
A RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS WAVE ON SUN...THEN FLATTEN AGAIN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS WAVES MOVES INTO WESTERN
NOAM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RUN JUST A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE MOST PART. THE MEX AND ECE GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOW RATHER BIG
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE MEX PROBABLY TOO WARM AND ECE TOO COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR...WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO WIND DOWN. HOWEVER ISOLD-SCT
-SHSN/-SHRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...WITH THE FOG THINNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE POOR WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT MAINLY OVER THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
AS THE STORM MOVES OFF...AND AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REFORM AND
SPREAD ACROSS MANY OF THE VALLEY AREAS. SOME FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WED MORNING...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 15Z WED.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ012-
014-020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ009-
017>019-021>023.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-
029.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1049 PM MST MON JAN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 PM MST MON JAN 12 2015
AREAS OF FZFG PRECIP ARE BECOMING MORE SPOTTY AND LIGHT ACROSS
EL PASO COUNTY...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
DENSE FOG LIKELY TO REMAIN AN ISSUE...SO HAVE REPLACED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY...WHICH
COMBINES THE ELEMENTS OF DENSE FOG AND SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SHOULD SEE THESE AREAS OF DENSE FOG BREAK UP LATER TUESDAY
MORNING. LATEST NAM HAS CUT BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE ERN
MTS TOMORROW...SO WILL HOLD BACK ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR SNOW E OF
THE CONTDVD AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ROSE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 PM MST MON JAN 12 2015
UPDATED FOR LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. CUT BACK ON POPS A LITTLE
OVER THE ERN ZONES AS PRECIP SHIFTS TOT HE EAST. HEADLINES
LOOK ON TRACK. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST MON JAN 12 2015
CURRENTLY...DENSE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS EL
PASO COUNTY...FORCED BY WEAK E-SE UPSLOPE FLOW AND AIDED BY A
FAIRLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTY. GIVEN LATEST HRRR PROG OF LOW LEVEL E-SE WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING...WILL EXTEND TIME OF WINTER WX ADV
INTO MID EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ICE
ACCUMULATION...BUT WITH MOST OBSERVATION SITES STILL REPORTING
FZDZ...WILL HOLD OFF ON CONVERTING TO A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NOW...THOUGH ONE MAY BEE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WEAK
TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WHILE MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN ONLY A FEW FLURRIES AS MUCH OF
THE AREA IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN WAVES.
OVERNIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH GREAT BASIN...TAKING
A TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF YESTERDAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS.
EXPECT SNOW TO BREAK OUT THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LA GARITAS AND SAWATCH RANGE
BY MIDNIGHT. KEPT THE WARNING IN PLACE FOR THE SAN JUANS...AND
CHANGED WATCH TO AN ADVISORY FARTHER NORTH. EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL
SEE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN A STEADIER LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS TOWARD MORNING AS UPWARD MOTION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS.
ONCE BAND OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS EXITS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...SUSPECT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE ONLY SOME SOME
FLURRIES/FOG/-FZDZ OVERNIGHT...AS SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE THE
MAIN MECHANISM DRIVING CLOUDS/PRECIP. NAM HINTS AT SOME DRYING
AFTER 06Z AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A VERY SLIGHT SW
COMPONENT...THOUGH DOUBTFUL IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT CLOUDS
AND FOG...THOUGH VISIBILITY MIGHT IMPROVE MARGINALLY. GIVEN
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...NUDGED LOW TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN PLAINS.
TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH OR SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST INTO ARIZONA...WITH TRACK A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
HEAVY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE
DAY AS MOIST S-SW FLOW CONTINUES...WITH LIGHTER AND LESS STEADY
SNOW OVER THE REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY
BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE THROUGH
700 MB FLOW BECOMES MORE UPSLOPE IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURE
OVER NWRN NM. I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS MAY STAY DRY MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH SNOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FROM SOUTH OF PUEBLO TO THE NM BORDER. MAX TEMPS TO GO NOWHERE
ONCE AGAIN WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST MON JAN 12 2015
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH WED. TUE NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AND CONTINUES DUE SOUTH
INTO S-SE ARIZONA. WED MORNING THIS UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND SLIDES TO
THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE EC...GFS AND NAM MODELS ARE
ALL INDICATING THIS PATH...WHICH IS A LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR ANY
LONG-LASTING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
THEREFORE...FINE TUNED THE POP GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO SHOW WIDESPREAD
AREAL COVERAGE OF PCPN TUE NIGHT BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN THE FOCUS OF
THE SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS THE LOW PULLS SOUTH AND PCPN
BEGINS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE NORTH. WED MORNING ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED POPS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS...THEN PCPN
ENDS AND CLOUDS START TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A COLD NIGHT TUE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO
SINGLE DIGITS...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WED AS CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW
WILL HELP TO SHUNT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF COLORADO...KEEPING
THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH GRADUAL WARMING. TWO DISTURBANCES WILL
CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ONE THU NIGHT AND THE OTHER ON
SAT...BUT AT THIS TIME THEY LOOK TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT THE CWA.
LOOK FOR COOL NIGHTS WITH AFTN MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE
PLAINS...30S TO AROUND 40F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC STILL PAINT DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FOR THE STATE BOTH DAYS...BUT THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE KEEPS
WANTING TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE CENT MTS
INITIALLY...SPREADING TO ALL OF THE MTS FOR MON. AT THIS TIME...SEE
NO STRONG REASON TO STRAY FAR FROM THE PROCEDURE SINCE A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN COURSE FOR THE WEEKEND DISTURBANCE COULD CERTAINLY BROUGHT
ISOLATED SNOW TO OUR MTS. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MST MON JAN 12 2015
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
INCLUDING KCOS AND KPUB. MOIST...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
TERRAIN LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS UNTIL THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING THE WEATHER SCOOTS SOUTH OF THE FLIGHT
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS...FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE TERRAIN...NOT QUITE SO BAD BUT STILL MVFR TO IFR THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE PERIOD. FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...REALLY
MUCH THE SAME DEAL. KALS HAS EXPERIENCED A BIT OF A REPRIEVE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CIGS AND VSBYS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
MVFR IN THAT AREA ARE LIKELY TO GO DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ELSEWHERE. LAST...AND CERTAINLY NOT
LEAST...FREEZING DRIZZLE...FREEZING FOG...AND DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING BOTH KCOS AND KPUB.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ084-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-064-066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1158 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF LA CROSSE WAS PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN AREA OF LAKE GENERATED STRATUS WITH SNOW SHOWERS WAS
EVIDENT ON FOG CHANNEL IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER
NORTHERN IL...WHICH HAS BEEN CREEPING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. AT 08Z...THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS WAS ROUGHLY FROM
SAVANNA TO KEWANEE. WEAK RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED FLURRIES HAVE REACHED AS FAR WEST AS PRINCETON IL TO
STERLING IL. TEMPERATURES VARIED WIDELY...MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WHERE SKIES CLEAR...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EAST. ALOFT...A NW FLOW PREVAILED WITH A
SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST MOVING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EASTERN MT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER DOMINATE THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT TERM. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH LATER TONIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...THE CURRENT SURFACE
THROUGH 925 MB EASTERLY FLOW AND TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE OFF LAKE
MI WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE THIS MORNING. THIS BIG QUESTION WILL
BE HOW FAR WEST THE CLOUD FIELD ADVANCES BEFORE DISSIPATING UNDER
THE LARGELY SUBSIDENT...CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW. THE ROUGH
AGREEMENT IN THE 06Z WRF AND RAP MODELED MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE
900 TO 950 MB LAYERS...THAT HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS...INDICATE THE CLOUDS SHOULD ADVANCE TO AT LEAST THE MS
RIVER INTO EXTREME EASTERN IA TOWARD MID MORNING BEFORE THINNING
OUT ALTOGETHER BY NOON AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND. FOR
NOW...WILL HAVE FLURRIES ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE ONLY OVER NW
IL...BUT WILL WATCH RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY
FOR THE POSSIBLE NEED TO CONTINUE LONGER AND POSSIBLY REACH INTO
EASTERN IA.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL LIMIT MIXING AND PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS LOOK REASONABLE.
TONIGHT...WEAK LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT
TIMING SUGGESTS THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE OVER THE EAST...WHERE
THE LIGHT WINDS AND SNOW COVER WILL AGAIN FAVOR LOWS NEAR OR A FEW
DEGREES BELOW ZERO...WITH A RAPID DROP OFF POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING.
IN THE WEST...INCREASING CLOUDS AND AT LEAST LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD
HOLD MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WITH STEADY TO POSSIBLY
RISING TEMPERATURES TOWARD MORNING. THE WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT REACHES
INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD MORNING...BUT
WITH THE DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...LIKELY THROUGH AT
LEAST 800 MB...PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. WILL MENTION
POSSIBLE FLURRIES IN THE FAR NW TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE THE LIFT
LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON A WELCOME WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS EXTENDED
PERIOD ALONG WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION
IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE COLUMN IS
MOISTURE STARVED AND MODELS SUGGEST FORCING IS QUITE WEAK...SO WILL
HAVE ONLY 20 POPS. MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME FLURRIES BUT THE
WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A DUSTING IN A FEW SPOTS. NONE OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS PAINT ANY QPF IN THE DVN CWA...KEEPING THE BULK
OF THE QPF TO OUR NORTH WHERE THE BETTER FORCING WILL EXIST. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW BRINGING A MILDER PACIFIC AIRMASS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND AND BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOARING WELL INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
MUCH OF THE SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL BE MELTED BY THEN.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACK TO OUR
NORTH WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE DVN CWA. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT
SOMETHING SNEAKING INTO THE CWA ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEMS TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. BEHIND EACH STORM SYSTEM A
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE CWA KNOCKING OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
INTO THE 30S...BUT THE CONSENSUS MODELS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
MVFR STRATOCU DECK HANGING ON ALONG AND EAST OF DBQ AND TRYING TO
PUSH TOWARD THE MLI SITE FROM THE EAST. BOTH SITES MAY STAY JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE BKN-OVC COVERAGE...BUT TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT
AND WILL HAVE TO USE A TEMPO GROUP FOR AT LEAST A BKN MVFR DECK
SCRAPING THESE SITES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING SOLID
MVFR DECK MAY HAVE A FEW FLURRIES EMBEDDED IN IT THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL. LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WINDS ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
PASSING RIDGE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN WI INTO NORTHEASTERN
IL. BEHIND THE RIDGE...MAINLY VFR LEVEL STRATOCU CLOUDS CURRENTLY
ACRS THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACRS THE TAF SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING. SOME CHC FOR EVEN A LOWER DECK IN
THE MVFR REALM WITH EMBEDDED FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WED MORNING AT CID AND DBQ. AN APPROACHING SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL SWITCH THE SFC
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST WED MORNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BUT STILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. ..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
519 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF LA CROSSE WAS PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN AREA OF LAKE GENERATED STRATUS WITH SNOW SHOWERS WAS
EVIDENT ON FOG CHANNEL IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER
NORTHERN IL...WHICH HAS BEEN CREEPING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. AT 08Z...THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS WAS ROUGHLY FROM
SAVANNA TO KEWANEE. WEAK RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED FLURRIES HAVE REACHED AS FAR WEST AS PRINCETON IL TO
STERLING IL. TEMPERATURES VARIED WIDELY...MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WHERE SKIES CLEAR...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EAST. ALOFT...A NW FLOW PREVAILED WITH A
SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST MOVING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EASTERN MT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER DOMINATE THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT TERM. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH LATER TONIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...THE CURRENT SURFACE
THROUGH 925 MB EASTERLY FLOW AND TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE OFF LAKE
MI WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE THIS MORNING. THIS BIG QUESTION WILL
BE HOW FAR WEST THE CLOUD FIELD ADVANCES BEFORE DISSIPATING UNDER
THE LARGELY SUBSIDENT...CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW. THE ROUGH
AGREEMENT IN THE 06Z WRF AND RAP MODELED MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE
900 TO 950 MB LAYERS...THAT HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS...INDICATE THE CLOUDS SHOULD ADVANCE TO AT LEAST THE MS
RIVER INTO EXTREME EASTERN IA TOWARD MID MORNING BEFORE THINNING
OUT ALTOGETHER BY NOON AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND. FOR
NOW...WILL HAVE FLURRIES ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE ONLY OVER NW
IL...BUT WILL WATCH RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY
FOR THE POSSIBLE NEED TO CONTINUE LONGER AND POSSIBLY REACH INTO
EASTERN IA.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL LIMIT MIXING AND PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS LOOK REASONABLE.
TONIGHT...WEAK LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT
TIMING SUGGESTS THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE OVER THE EAST...WHERE
THE LIGHT WINDS AND SNOW COVER WILL AGAIN FAVOR LOWS NEAR OR A FEW
DEGREES BELOW ZERO...WITH A RAPID DROP OFF POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING.
IN THE WEST...INCREASING CLOUDS AND AT LEAST LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD
HOLD MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WITH STEADY TO POSSIBLY
RISING TEMPERATURES TOWARD MORNING. THE WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT REACHES
INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD MORNING...BUT
WITH THE DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...LIKELY THROUGH AT
LEAST 800 MB...PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. WILL MENTION
POSSIBLE FLURRIES IN THE FAR NW TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE THE LIFT
LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON A WELCOME WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS EXTENDED
PERIOD ALONG WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION
IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE COLUMN IS
MOISTURE STARVED AND MODELS SUGGEST FORCING IS QUITE WEAK...SO WILL
HAVE ONLY 20 POPS. MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME FLURRIES BUT THE
WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A DUSTING IN A FEW SPOTS. NONE OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS PAINT ANY QPF IN THE DVN CWA...KEEPING THE BULK
OF THE QPF TO OUR NORTH WHERE THE BETTER FORCING WILL EXIST. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW BRINGING A MILDER PACIFIC AIRMASS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND AND BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOARING WELL INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
MUCH OF THE SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL BE MELTED BY THEN.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACK TO OUR
NORTH WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE DVN CWA. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT
SOMETHING SNEAKING INTO THE CWA ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEMS TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. BEHIND EACH STORM SYSTEM A
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE CWA KNOCKING OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
INTO THE 30S...BUT THE CONSENSUS MODELS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW FLURRIES REACHING FROM LAKE MI WEST
TO THE MS RIVER WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EARLY
THIS MORNING AT DBQ AND MLI BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE CLOUDS WILL
ALSO REACH BRL...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASES THERE...CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ONCE THE LOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH FLURRIES
POSSIBLE TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
311 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF LA CROSSE WAS PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN AREA OF LAKE GENERATED STRATUS WITH SNOW SHOWERS WAS
EVIDENT ON FOG CHANNEL IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER
NORTHERN IL...WHICH HAS BEEN CREEPING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. AT 08Z...THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS WAS ROUGHLY FROM
SAVANNA TO KEWANEE. WEAK RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED FLURRIES HAVE REACHED AS FAR WEST AS PRINCETON IL TO
STERLING IL. TEMPERATURES VARIED WIDELY...MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WHERE SKIES CLEAR...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EAST. ALOFT...A NW FLOW PREVAILED WITH A
SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST MOVING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EASTERN MT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER DOMINATE THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT TERM. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH LATER TONIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...THE CURRENT SURFACE
THROUGH 925 MB EASTERLY FLOW AND TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE OFF LAKE
MI WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE THIS MORNING. THIS BIG QUESTION WILL
BE HOW FAR WEST THE CLOUD FIELD ADVANCES BEFORE DISSIPATING UNDER
THE LARGELY SUBSIDENT...CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW. THE ROUGH
AGREEMENT IN THE 06Z WRF AND RAP MODELED MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE
900 TO 950 MB LAYERS...THAT HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS...INDICATE THE CLOUDS SHOULD ADVANCE TO AT LEAST THE MS
RIVER INTO EXTREME EASTERN IA TOWARD MID MORNING BEFORE THINNING
OUT ALTOGETHER BY NOON AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND. FOR
NOW...WILL HAVE FLURRIES ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE ONLY OVER NW
IL...BUT WILL WATCH RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY
FOR THE POSSIBLE NEED TO CONTINUE LONGER AND POSSIBLY REACH INTO
EASTERN IA.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL LIMIT MIXING AND PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS LOOK REASONABLE.
TONIGHT...WEAK LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT
TIMING SUGGESTS THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE OVER THE EAST...WHERE
THE LIGHT WINDS AND SNOW COVER WILL AGAIN FAVOR LOWS NEAR OR A FEW
DEGREES BELOW ZERO...WITH A RAPID DROP OFF POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING.
IN THE WEST...INCREASING CLOUDS AND AT LEAST LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD
HOLD MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WITH STEADY TO POSSIBLY
RISING TEMPERATURES TOWARD MORNING. THE WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT REACHES
INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD MORNING...BUT
WITH THE DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...LIKELY THROUGH AT
LEAST 800 MB...PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. WILL MENTION
POSSIBLE FLURRIES IN THE FAR NW TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE THE LIFT
LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON A WELCOME WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS EXTENDED
PERIOD ALONG WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION
IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE COLUMN IS
MOISTURE STARVED AND MODELS SUGGEST FORCING IS QUITE WEAK...SO WILL
HAVE ONLY 20 POPS. MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME FLURRIES BUT THE
WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A DUSTING IN A FEW SPOTS. NONE OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS PAINT ANY QPF IN THE DVN CWA...KEEPING THE BULK
OF THE QPF TO OUR NORTH WHERE THE BETTER FORCING WILL EXIST. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW BRINGING A MILDER PACIFIC AIRMASS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND AND BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOARING WELL INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
MUCH OF THE SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL BE MELTED BY THEN.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACK TO OUR
NORTH WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE DVN CWA. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT
SOMETHING SNEAKING INTO THE CWA ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEMS TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. BEHIND EACH STORM SYSTEM A
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE CWA KNOCKING OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
INTO THE 30S...BUT THE CONSENSUS MODELS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST MON JAN 12 2015
CLEAR/UNLIMITED VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING
LAKE MICHIGAN STRATUS INTO LOCATIONS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY ABOUT 09Z/13...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME
AND WILL BE PLACED INTO TAFS AS A SCATTERED CIGS SINCE THE SATELLITE
FOG CHANNEL SHOWS THE WESTERN EDGE SCATTERING OUT. THE TREND MAY
YET NEED TO ADD A TEMPORARY MVFR CIG...ESPECIALLY AT DBQ AND MLI
IF THE BAND OF CLOUDS CAN MAINTAIN A WIDESPREAD NATURE.
ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
317 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ON DIGGING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY APPEARS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE LOCATION OF AN +90KNOT JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF A 500MB
TROUGH/LOW, WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO EARLIER THIS
MORNING. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BASED ON THE 00Z NAM 300 TO
308 ISENTROPIC SURFACES WHICH INDICATES IMPROVING LIFT AS ANOTHER
AREA OF MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. WITH
IMPROVING LIFT LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE
LOCATION OF WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WILL LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER SOUTH
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AN INCREASE CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH THE ENHANCED
LIFT EXPECTED WITH THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND AVERAGE LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH.
GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE DEVELOPING BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THEN SPREADS THIS AREA EAST
THROUGH 12Z. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS GO BASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING HAVE LOWER THE LOWS FOR TONIGHT NEAR THE I70 CORRIDOR
BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL EXHIBIT A SPLIT FLOW SYNOPTIC FLOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE UPPER JET ENERGY. THE JET IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH
EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY, WILL
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
QUICKLY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE
DEFORMATION/SHEAR ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE THE ONLY
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY, BIT
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS WORKING INTO
KANSAS AT THAT TIME. WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BRING
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF MOS WAS
FOLLOWED INTO THURSDAY WHICH PROVIDED THE WARMEST SOLUTION OF ALL
THE MOS AND RAW OUTPUT.
THE 4-7 DAY PERIOD, ESSENTIALLY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD COMPARED TO RECENT PAST TRENDS. HOWEVER,
A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO TIME AND KNOW THE TRUE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD ADVECTION OR IMPACTS OF WINDS. THE ECMWF AND
GFS SUGGEST THE SATURDAY TIMEFRAME A WINDOW FOR SUCH AN EVENT, WITH
YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE ON IT`S HEELS BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST MON JAN 12 2015
LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF 800MB TO 600MB MOISTURE
AND WEAK LIFT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA BORDER BASED ON
THE RAP I300 TO I308 ISENTROPIC SURFACES. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY AT NEAR AND
WEST/NORTHWEST OF GCK AND HYS. OUTSIDE THESE FLURRIES CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4000FT TO 8000FT AGL BASED ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z TUESDAY AND
THE PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 16 39 18 / 20 30 10 0
GCK 30 15 40 14 / 10 20 10 0
EHA 33 19 39 19 / 20 30 10 0
LBL 32 17 39 17 / 20 40 10 0
HYS 28 14 37 16 / 20 20 0 0
P28 30 19 35 20 / 20 30 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
253 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ON DIGGING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY APPEARS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE LOCATION OF AN +90KNOT JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF A 500MB
TROUGH/LOW, WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO EARLIER THIS
MORNING. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BASED ON THE 00Z NAM 300 TO
308 ISENTROPIC SURFACES WHICH INDICATES IMPROVING LIFT AS ANOTHER
AREA OF MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. WITH
IMPROVING LIFT LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE
LOCATION OF WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WILL LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER SOUTH
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AN INCREASE CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH THE ENHANCED
LIFT EXPECTED WITH THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND AVERAGE LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH.
GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE DEVELOPING BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THEN SPREADS THIS AREA EAST
THROUGH 12Z. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS GO BASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING HAVE LOWER THE LOWS FOR TONIGHT NEAR THE I70 CORRIDOR
BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST MON JAN 12 2015
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE CONFINED TO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN AN
INCH. CLOUDS THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH A
TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK
BUT ONLY IMPACT WESTERN KANSAS WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST, THEN QUICKLY BACK TO SOUTHWEST. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
MOSTLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. HIGHS LOOK TO INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY
TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING RISING INTO THE 20`S
AND POSSIBLY AROUND 30 DEGREES BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST MON JAN 12 2015
LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF 800MB TO 600MB MOISTURE
AND WEAK LIFT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA BORDER BASED ON
THE RAP I300 TO I308 ISENTROPIC SURFACES. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY AT NEAR AND
WEST/NORTHWEST OF GCK AND HYS. OUTSIDE THESE FLURRIES CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4000FT TO 8000FT AGL BASED ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z TUESDAY AND
THE PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 16 37 19 / 20 30 10 0
GCK 30 15 38 18 / 10 20 10 0
EHA 33 19 40 20 / 20 30 10 0
LBL 32 17 39 19 / 20 40 10 0
HYS 28 14 35 17 / 20 20 10 0
P28 30 19 37 20 / 20 30 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1116 PM CST MON JAN 12 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST MON JAN 12 2015
AT 00Z TUESDAY A -25C 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND NORTHWESTERN UTAH WITH THE BETTER 12HOUR 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS BEING PRESENT TO ITS SOUTH SOUTHEAST. A NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED
250MB 90KT JET STREAK WAS LOCATED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. FURTHER EAST A SURFACE TO 850MB HIGH EXTENDED FROM
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA, INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND DIFLUENT FLOW WAS PRESENT AT THE 700MB
LEVEL OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. RADAR AND A SURFACE
OBSERVATION INDICATED SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING EARLIER
THIS MORNING ACROSS WHERE THE BETTER 700MB MOISTURE AND DIFLUENT
FLOW WAS OBSERVED. DODGE CITY SOUNDING INDICATED A 580MB TO 500MB
MOIST LAYER WITH WINDS IN THIS LAYER VEERING WITH HEIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST MON JAN 12 2015
THERE IS ANOTHER LARGE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN, CANADA, THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS, AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY 14/00Z OR TUESDAY EVENING. BY 00Z THIS
EVENING, THE 850MB FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 15G25 KNOTS. THIS WILL CAUSE AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN
OF MOISTURE, WITH THE MAIN RESULT BEING STRATUS CLOUDS SPREADING
OVER NEARLY ALL OF OUR CWA. THIS MOIST LAYER WILL EFFECTIVELY
TRAP THE COLD LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE, AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE COLD MINIMUMS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 6F DEGREES AT HAYS TO 14F DEGREES AT ELKHART. ONE
SAVING GRACE FOR THIS WINTER PATTERN WILL BE RATHER LIGHT WINDS
FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. RESULTING WIND
CHILLS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE -6F TO -7F DEGREE RANGE NORTH OF
I-70, TO THE +3F TO +4F DEGREE RANGE IN THE MORTON COUNTY AREA.
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS CLOUDS, WITH SURFACE
WINDS BLOWING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 8MPH OR LESS EARLY, BUT
INCREASING TO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE ABOUT MIDDAY FOR A FEW HOURS,
AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH COMES ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES BY LATE AFTERNOON, AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES SOME UPPER LIFT OVER THE COLD DOME.
THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES AS EARLY AS 22Z IN THE HAYS AREA,
BUT THEN THE BROADER SCALE LIFT WILL EXPAND SOUTH TO BARBER COUNTY
AND THEN WESTWARD TO NEAR ELKHART BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. I STILL THINK
THIS LIGHT SNOW EVENT WILL BE MAINLY FLURRIES, BUT A LITTLE MORE
THAN THAT CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARDS 0Z WEDNESDAY, MAINLY DUE TO
INCREASING UPWARD MID LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
PASSING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. I DID NOT CHANGE THE MAX TEMPS ANY
FOR TUESDAY, LEAVING THEM RANGING FRO 26F DEGREES AT HAYS TO 33F
DEGREES IN OUR SOUTHWEST NEAR ELKHART.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST MON JAN 12 2015
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE CONFINED TO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN AN
INCH. CLOUDS THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH A
TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK
BUT ONLY IMPACT WESTERN KANSAS WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST, THEN QUICKLY BACK TO SOUTHWEST. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
MOSTLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. HIGHS LOOK TO INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY
TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING RISING INTO THE 20`S
AND POSSIBLY AROUND 30 DEGREES BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST MON JAN 12 2015
LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF 800MB TO 600MB MOISTURE
AND WEAK LIFT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA BORDER BASED ON
THE RAP I300 TO I308 ISENTROPIC SURFACES. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY AT NEAR AND
WEST/NORTHWEST OF GCK AND HYS. OUTSIDE THESE FLURRIES CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4000FT TO 8000FT AGL BASED ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z TUESDAY AND
THE PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 10 28 18 37 / 20 20 40 10
GCK 10 28 17 38 / 30 20 20 10
EHA 14 33 20 40 / 20 20 30 10
LBL 12 31 19 39 / 20 20 30 10
HYS 6 26 16 35 / 10 20 20 10
P28 10 29 19 37 / 10 10 30 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1154 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SFC OBS/VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO SOCK IN THE
FORECAST AREA ATTM...AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS SHOW THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT (NAM IS A
LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC ON CLEARING BUT WAS ALSO THIS WAY YESTERDAY
MORNING). MOST SITES NOW MVFR WITH CIGS POKING JUST ABOVE 1K FEET
BUT KLFT SHOWS A DROP BACK TO 700 FEET...LIKELY CAUSED BY INCOMING
SHORTWAVE-INDUCED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. EXPECT THIS DROP TO BE
TEMPORARY IN NATURE AND HAVE KEPT THE OVERRIDING THEM OF MVFR
GOING THERE AS WELL. CEILINGS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 1K AGAIN THIS
EVENING. OTHER AVIATION ISSUE WILL BE NRLY WINDS AS SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO RUN AOA 10 KNOTS AT THE SRN SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015/
UPDATE...
WDSPRD CLOUD COVER WITH A BAND OF LT SPRINKLES/PATCHY DZ MOVING E
ACRS SW LA AND LOWER SE TX COURTESY OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING
THE REGION. ONLY MODEL TO CAPTURE THIS HAS BEEN THE HRRR WITH
OTHER MODELS UNABLE TO DISCERN THE FEATURE. TWEAKED POPS JUST
SLIGHTLY AND ADDED PATCHY DZ TO THE WX GRIDS...FM CNTL LA TO LOWER
SE TX THIS MORNING THEN OVER THE ACADIANA REGION THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY STOUT CAP OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING PER THE
12Z KLCH SOUNDING WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION...AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. LATEST STLT IMAGERY
SHOWS CLEARING LINE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ACRS SWRN ARK AND
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD WORK SOUTH ACRS NRN LA...DO NOT THINK IT WILL
QUITE REACH CNTL LA AND THE LAKES REGION OF SE TX. WITH CLOUDY
SKIES HOLDING ON...TWEAKED THE HOURLY TEMPS AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS
DOWN A FEW DEGREES. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING ALL TERMINALS...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND HOLDING STEADY BETWEEN 10-15KT. FCST TIME
HEIGHTS/SOUNDINGS POINT TWD GRADUALLY LIFTING CIGS TODAY...BUT
REMAINING IN MVFR OWING TO THE STNG FRONTAL INVERSION NEAR 2K FT.
CIGS PROGGED TO ERODE THIS EVENING AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS
IN FROM THE NORTH.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...EVENING LCH SOUNDING SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL FRONTAL
INVERSION OF 15F DEGREES BEGINNING AT AROUND 2K FEET. NORTHERLY
FLOW AT AND BELOW INVERSION MAINTAINING COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH
WINDS TRENDING MILD ABOVE ON A WESTERLY ABOVE. EXPANSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEPICTED BY SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CONUS LOCKED BENEATH AFOREMENTIONED
THERMAL INVERSION. UNFORTUNATELY...LIMITED SYNOPTIC CHANGE SUGGESTED
INTO WEDNESDAY...SO ANTICIPATING CLOUD COVER TO BE MAINTAINED.
THUS WITH LIMITED SUN TODAY AND CAA CONTINUING...EXPECTING LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF A WARMUP FROM EARLY MORNINGS LOWS.
COLD 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH NOW POSITIONED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE MODIFYING.
FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS PREDOMINANTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MOISTURE RE-EXPANDS NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE
OF A SHARPLY POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROF DROPPING THROUGH THE
PLAINS. MOISTURE THEN GETS SHUNTED SOUTH WITH PASSAGE OF THE
TROF...FOLLOWED BY A DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE COLUMN
YIELDING A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MARINE... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGAIN BECOME REESTABLISHED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING...WHILE
WINDS WILL RELAX AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR
THE COAST.
23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 46 36 47 38 53 / 10 10 20 30 20
KBPT 47 38 46 38 52 / 10 10 20 30 10
KAEX 42 33 46 35 52 / 10 10 20 20 10
KLFT 46 36 48 39 51 / 10 10 20 30 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1049 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
WDSPRD CLOUD COVER WITH A BAND OF LT SPRINKLES/PATCHY DZ MOVING E
ACRS SW LA AND LOWER SE TX COURTESY OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING
THE REGION. ONLY MODEL TO CAPTURE THIS HAS BEEN THE HRRR WITH
OTHER MODELS UNABLE TO DISCERN THE FEATURE. TWEAKED POPS JUST
SLIGHTLY AND ADDED PATCHY DZ TO THE WX GRIDS...FM CNTL LA TO LOWER
SE TX THIS MORNING THEN OVER THE ACADIANA REGION THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY STOUT CAP OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING PER THE
12Z KLCH SOUNDING WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION...AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. LATEST STLT IMAGERY
SHOWS CLEARING LINE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ACRS SWRN ARK AND
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD WORK SOUTH ACRS NRN LA...DO NOT THINK IT WILL
QUITE REACH CNTL LA AND THE LAKES REGION OF SE TX. WITH CLOUDY
SKIES HOLDING ON...TWEAKED THE HOURLY TEMPS AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS
DOWN A FEW DEGREES. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING ALL TERMINALS...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND HOLDING STEADY BETWEEN 10-15KT. FCST TIME
HEIGHTS/SOUNDINGS POINT TWD GRADUALLY LIFTING CIGS TODAY...BUT
REMAINING IN MVFR OWING TO THE STNG FRONTAL INVERSION NEAR 2K FT.
CIGS PROGGED TO ERODE THIS EVENING AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS
IN FROM THE NORTH.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...EVENING LCH SOUNDING SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL FRONTAL
INVERSION OF 15F DEGREES BEGINNING AT AROUND 2K FEET. NORTHERLY
FLOW AT AND BELOW INVERSION MAINTAINING COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH
WINDS TRENDING MILD ABOVE ON A WESTERLY ABOVE. EXPANSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEPICTED BY SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CONUS LOCKED BENEATH AFOREMENTIONED
THERMAL INVERSION. UNFORTUNATELY...LIMITED SYNOPTIC CHANGE SUGGESTED
INTO WEDNESDAY...SO ANTICIPATING CLOUD COVER TO BE MAINTAINED.
THUS WITH LIMITED SUN TODAY AND CAA CONTINUING...EXPECTING LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF A WARMUP FROM EARLY MORNINGS LOWS.
COLD 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH NOW POSITIONED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE MODIFYING.
FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS PREDOMINANTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MOISTURE RE-EXPANDS NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE
OF A SHARPLY POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROF DROPPING THROUGH THE
PLAINS. MOISTURE THEN GETS SHUNTED SOUTH WITH PASSAGE OF THE
TROF...FOLLOWED BY A DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE COLUMN
YIELDING A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MARINE... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGAIN BECOME REESTABLISHED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING...WHILE
WINDS WILL RELAX AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR
THE COAST.
23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 46 36 47 37 / 10 10 20 30
KBPT 47 38 46 38 / 10 10 20 30
KAEX 42 33 46 35 / 10 10 20 20
KLFT 46 36 48 38 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA
TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1211 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING ALREADY HINTED AT BY
OVERNIGHT FORECASTER...AS CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
HAS GRADUALLY PUSHED NORTH...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKIES
EXTENDING FROM MNM-ESC-ERY. HAVE SLOWED THE IMPROVING SKY TREND
SOMEWHAT WITH THESE LOCATIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW STRATUS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS ALSO NECESSITATED SOME NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS /UPWARD/...BUT INHERITED AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL
GENERALLY LOOK GOOD WITH PERHAPS A SMALL DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT
NEEDED FOR THESE CLOUDY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUN AND
RAPIDLY REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
ALTHOUGH ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER WRN WI EARLY THIS
MORNING...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OUT OF UPPER MI DURING THE
NIGHT. THIS SLOW CLEARING IS A RESULT OF WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC IN
THE STRATUS BEARING LAYER BEING SO LIGHT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS
CENTER OF THE 925MB HIGH PRES CIRCULATION OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI.
WITH THIS CIRCULATION DRIFTING ESE...CLEARING IS NOW PROGRESSING
FAIRLY STEADILY THRU NW AND CNTRL UPPER MI. MEANWHILE...TO THE S OF
THE 925MB CIRCULATION CENTER...E/SE FLOW OFF LAKE MI HAS BROUGHT
STRATUS N AND W TO KMNM RECENTLY. WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR
LONGEST...NEAR THE WI BORDER...TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE IN THE
-20 TO -25F RANGE. WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPS
WILL STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO PLUMMET.
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING SE...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW QUICKLY
TAKES OVER TODAY...AND THIS WILL PUSH REMAINING STRATUS OUT OF THE
FCST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH
THE STRATUS THAT HAS EXPANDED OFF LAKE MI INTO ERN WI. THESE CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES MAY SPREAD NE FROM WI TO KESC/KISQ/KERY
TODAY. RIGHT NOW...FCST REFLECTS AN OPTIMISTIC SKY CONDITION IN THAT
AREA...BUT TRAJECTORIES ARE VERY CLOSE TO HAVING JUST ENOUGH
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO RESULT IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SE FCST AREA. OBVIOUSLY...CLOUD TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE
TEENS TODAY...INCREASING WINDS WILL ADD A CHILL TO THE AIR.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE WILL SWING SE...REACHING THE UPPER LAKES EARLY
WED MORNING. RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER FORCING AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -SN TONIGHT...AND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD SHOWING MORE COVERAGE OF PCPN. HAVE
THUS RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC ACROSS THE W HALF OVERNIGHT. WITH ONLY
MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT INDICATED...PCPN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW (LESS THAN 1 INCH). TEMPS WILL BE A
CHALLENGE TONIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY MAY ALLOW MORE
SHELTERED INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DIP TO ZERO OR BELOW BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE. OTHERWISE...SINGLE DIGITS INTERIOR TO CLOSER TO 10F ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE THE RULE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO PROPELS WEAK COLD FRONT OVER
UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. GREATEST LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
POINT TO LINGERING LGT SNOW IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST
CWA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING OVER KEWEENAW WITH WNW
WINDS AND MOISTURE TO H9 WITH TEMPS AT H9 BLO -14C...PLACING MOST
OF THE MOIST LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ. SHARP INVERSION PRESENT BLO 5KFT
WILL LIMIT INTENSITY BUT COULD SEE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF FLUFFY
ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE BACKING WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
DIMINISH THE LES. AWAY FM KEWEENAW...SUB H9 MOISTURE REMAINS IN WAKE
OF THE FROPA BUT IT WILL PROBABLY TRY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT
DURING THE AFTN. MIXING TO H925 SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOW 20S.
SFC LOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST FM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES PUSHES A WARM
FRONT TOWARD UPR LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION H8-H6 COULD PRODUCE PATCHY LGT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT AND WHERE SOUNDINGS SHOW GREATER SATURATION
BLO H8. SW WINDS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT RAMP UP WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KTS NEAR LK SUPERIOR FM KEWEENAW TO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY ON THURSDAY AND COULD BE QUITE BREEZY ON THE MORE
EXPOSED KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS SFC LOW CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO
DEEPENS BLO 995MB. SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL MIXED PROFILE THROUGH H9 WITH
WINDS UP TO 35 KTS. DUE TO A WELL MIXED BLYR AND ONLY MARGINAL
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY...CHANCES OF ANY LES IN WAKE OF SFC LOW SEEM
MINIMAL OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. MIXING TO 925-900MB
ON THURSDAY YIELDS MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S IF NOT LOWER 30S.
LOWEST TEMPS IN MID 20S EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OF ICE COVERED BAY OF
GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN.
COLDER AIR DOES FINALLY ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER QUEBEC. EVEN WITH H925/H85 TEMPS ON
GFS FALLING TO -18C/-16C BY 12Z ON FRIDAY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
WITH ECMWF SLIGHTLY LOWER AT H85...LES SHOULD BE DAMPENED BY DRY SUB
CLOUD LAYER AS SFC HIGH AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILD ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR FM NORTHERN ONTARIO. RAN WITH SMALL CHANCES IN NNW-NW FLOW
AREAS OF THE CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA NEAR LK SUPERIOR INTO EARLY
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME VARIABLE AND LOSE THEIR ONSHORE
COMPONENT. FLOW LOOKS DIFFLUENT IN LOW-LEVELS OVER THE WEST...SO
KEPT CONDITIONS DRY THERE. A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
MOST CWA IN THE 20S.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIG FM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE UPR
GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. TREND FOR THIS SYSTEM IS TO DIG
FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SHOWN A FEW DAYS AGO WHICH MAKES
SENSE AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO OVERALL LARGER SCALE TROUGH
ALOFT. CONSENSUS POINTS TO POPS OVER MAINLY THE NORTH...INFLUENCED
IN LARGE PART BY MOSTLY DRY GFS AND WETTER ECMWF. NUDGED CHANCE POPS
FARTHER SOUTH OVER UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION.
PTYPE COULD BE ISSUE AS WARM AIR SURGES IN ONCE MOST PRECIP TRIES TO
END. GFS/ECMWF SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM LAYER ALOFT POKING INTO THE
SCNTRL. IF ENOUGH PRECIP IS AROUND WITH ARRIVAL OF WARM LAYER COULD
SEE MIXED PRECIP ISSUES OVER MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST. FOR NOW KEPT
PYTPE AS SNOW...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE TREND IS FARTHER SOUTH WHICH
WOULD DRAG COOLER AIR OVER CWA. TEMPS HAVE GOOD CHANCE OF REACHING
LOW 30S OVER MUCH OF CWA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH NOT SURE HOW WE GET
THERE IN REGARD TO SATURDAY SYSTEM DETAILS...DOES APPEAR TO TURN
COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POPS FOR
NW FLOW AREAS FOR LES WERE RAMPED UP OVER CONSENSUS. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE TO WINDS/TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
SUMMARY: GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING.
RESTRICTIONS: VFR CONDITIONS ATTM. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW/SHSN DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE SHSN SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GENERATING MVFR
RESTRICTIONS /DUE TO CIGS AND VSYBS/ WITH SOME BRIEF IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE. WHILE VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS
TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS 12G20KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10KTS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BACKING WESTERLY AND REMAINING NEAR 10KTS FOR THE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
LLWS: SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 1.5KFT INCREASE TO 30-35KTS PROMOTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS. WILL INCLUDE MENTION AT SAW/IWD WHERE
OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE WEAKEST. CMX LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL-ENOUGH MIXED
TO PRECLUDE LLWS MENTION HERE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
ACTIVE LAST WEEK OF THE SHIPPING SEASON WITH STRONG WINDS AND SOME
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AT TIMES. SW GALES ALONG WITH HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT OVER WEST AND NCNTRL LK
SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT DROPS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. GALE
WARNINGS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY. LULL IS BRIEF AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
STRONG SW WINDS IS EXPECTED ON WED NIGHT TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. AGAIN THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER WEST AND NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR. LOW WILL DEEPEN
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS IT CROSSES JAMES BAY...RESULTING IN GOOD
CHANCE OF WESTERLY GALES 35-40 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE BY AFTN.
WINDS DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND
NEW LOW PRESSURE NEARS FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THAT NEXT LOW. WINDS TO 30 KTS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...THEN ALL AREAS BY
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ242>244-263-264.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ242>244.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ARNOTT/APX
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ARNOTT/APX
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1053 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING ALREADY HINTED AT BY
OVERNIGHT FORECASTER...AS CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
HAS GRADUALLY PUSHED NORTH...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKIES
EXTENDING FROM MNM-ESC-ERY. HAVE SLOWED THE IMPROVING SKY TREND
SOMEWHAT WITH THESE LOCATIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW STRATUS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS ALSO NECESSITATED SOME NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS /UPWARD/...BUT INHERITED AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL
GENERALLY LOOK GOOD WITH PERHAPS A SMALL DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT
NEEDED FOR THESE CLOUDY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUN AND
RAPIDLY REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
ALTHOUGH ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER WRN WI EARLY THIS
MORNING...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OUT OF UPPER MI DURING THE
NIGHT. THIS SLOW CLEARING IS A RESULT OF WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC IN
THE STRATUS BEARING LAYER BEING SO LIGHT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS
CENTER OF THE 925MB HIGH PRES CIRCULATION OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI.
WITH THIS CIRCULATION DRIFTING ESE...CLEARING IS NOW PROGRESSING
FAIRLY STEADILY THRU NW AND CNTRL UPPER MI. MEANWHILE...TO THE S OF
THE 925MB CIRCULATION CENTER...E/SE FLOW OFF LAKE MI HAS BROUGHT
STRATUS N AND W TO KMNM RECENTLY. WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR
LONGEST...NEAR THE WI BORDER...TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE IN THE
-20 TO -25F RANGE. WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPS
WILL STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO PLUMMET.
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING SE...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW QUICKLY
TAKES OVER TODAY...AND THIS WILL PUSH REMAINING STRATUS OUT OF THE
FCST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH
THE STRATUS THAT HAS EXPANDED OFF LAKE MI INTO ERN WI. THESE CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES MAY SPREAD NE FROM WI TO KESC/KISQ/KERY
TODAY. RIGHT NOW...FCST REFLECTS AN OPTIMISTIC SKY CONDITION IN THAT
AREA...BUT TRAJECTORIES ARE VERY CLOSE TO HAVING JUST ENOUGH
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO RESULT IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SE FCST AREA. OBVIOUSLY...CLOUD TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE
TEENS TODAY...INCREASING WINDS WILL ADD A CHILL TO THE AIR.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE WILL SWING SE...REACHING THE UPPER LAKES EARLY
WED MORNING. RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER FORCING AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -SN TONIGHT...AND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD SHOWING MORE COVERAGE OF PCPN. HAVE
THUS RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC ACROSS THE W HALF OVERNIGHT. WITH ONLY
MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT INDICATED...PCPN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW (LESS THAN 1 INCH). TEMPS WILL BE A
CHALLENGE TONIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY MAY ALLOW MORE
SHELTERED INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DIP TO ZERO OR BELOW BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE. OTHERWISE...SINGLE DIGITS INTERIOR TO CLOSER TO 10F ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE THE RULE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO PROPELS WEAK COLD FRONT OVER
UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. GREATEST LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
POINT TO LINGERING LGT SNOW IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST
CWA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING OVER KEWEENAW WITH WNW
WINDS AND MOISTURE TO H9 WITH TEMPS AT H9 BLO -14C...PLACING MOST
OF THE MOIST LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ. SHARP INVERSION PRESENT BLO 5KFT
WILL LIMIT INTENSITY BUT COULD SEE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF FLUFFY
ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE BACKING WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
DIMINISH THE LES. AWAY FM KEWEENAW...SUB H9 MOISTURE REMAINS IN WAKE
OF THE FROPA BUT IT WILL PROBABLY TRY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT
DURING THE AFTN. MIXING TO H925 SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOW 20S.
SFC LOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST FM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES PUSHES A WARM
FRONT TOWARD UPR LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION H8-H6 COULD PRODUCE PATCHY LGT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT AND WHERE SOUNDINGS SHOW GREATER SATURATION
BLO H8. SW WINDS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT RAMP UP WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KTS NEAR LK SUPERIOR FM KEWEENAW TO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY ON THURSDAY AND COULD BE QUITE BREEZY ON THE MORE
EXPOSED KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS SFC LOW CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO
DEEPENS BLO 995MB. SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL MIXED PROFILE THROUGH H9 WITH
WINDS UP TO 35 KTS. DUE TO A WELL MIXED BLYR AND ONLY MARGINAL
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY...CHANCES OF ANY LES IN WAKE OF SFC LOW SEEM
MINIMAL OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. MIXING TO 925-900MB
ON THURSDAY YIELDS MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S IF NOT LOWER 30S.
LOWEST TEMPS IN MID 20S EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OF ICE COVERED BAY OF
GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN.
COLDER AIR DOES FINALLY ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER QUEBEC. EVEN WITH H925/H85 TEMPS ON
GFS FALLING TO -18C/-16C BY 12Z ON FRIDAY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
WITH ECMWF SLIGHTLY LOWER AT H85...LES SHOULD BE DAMPENED BY DRY SUB
CLOUD LAYER AS SFC HIGH AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILD ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR FM NORTHERN ONTARIO. RAN WITH SMALL CHANCES IN NNW-NW FLOW
AREAS OF THE CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA NEAR LK SUPERIOR INTO EARLY
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME VARIABLE AND LOSE THEIR ONSHORE
COMPONENT. FLOW LOOKS DIFFLUENT IN LOW-LEVELS OVER THE WEST...SO
KEPT CONDITIONS DRY THERE. A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
MOST CWA IN THE 20S.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIG FM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE UPR
GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. TREND FOR THIS SYSTEM IS TO DIG
FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SHOWN A FEW DAYS AGO WHICH MAKES
SENSE AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO OVERALL LARGER SCALE TROUGH
ALOFT. CONSENSUS POINTS TO POPS OVER MAINLY THE NORTH...INFLUENCED
IN LARGE PART BY MOSTLY DRY GFS AND WETTER ECMWF. NUDGED CHANCE POPS
FARTHER SOUTH OVER UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION.
PTYPE COULD BE ISSUE AS WARM AIR SURGES IN ONCE MOST PRECIP TRIES TO
END. GFS/ECMWF SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM LAYER ALOFT POKING INTO THE
SCNTRL. IF ENOUGH PRECIP IS AROUND WITH ARRIVAL OF WARM LAYER COULD
SEE MIXED PRECIP ISSUES OVER MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST. FOR NOW KEPT
PYTPE AS SNOW...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE TREND IS FARTHER SOUTH WHICH
WOULD DRAG COOLER AIR OVER CWA. TEMPS HAVE GOOD CHANCE OF REACHING
LOW 30S OVER MUCH OF CWA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH NOT SURE HOW WE GET
THERE IN REGARD TO SATURDAY SYSTEM DETAILS...DOES APPEAR TO TURN
COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POPS FOR
NW FLOW AREAS FOR LES WERE RAMPED UP OVER CONSENSUS. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE TO WINDS/TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING HRS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTN...MAINLY AT
KIWD/KCMX. IT`S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE A TRANSITION TO LLWS THIS
EVENING IF SFC WINDS CAN DECOUPLE. TONIGHT...APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
ACTIVE LAST WEEK OF THE SHIPPING SEASON WITH STRONG WINDS AND SOME
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AT TIMES. SW GALES ALONG WITH HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT OVER WEST AND NCNTRL LK
SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT DROPS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. GALE
WARNINGS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY. LULL IS BRIEF AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
STRONG SW WINDS IS EXPECTED ON WED NIGHT TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. AGAIN THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER WEST AND NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR. LOW WILL DEEPEN
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS IT CROSSES JAMES BAY...RESULTING IN GOOD
CHANCE OF WESTERLY GALES 35-40 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE BY AFTN.
WINDS DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND
NEW LOW PRESSURE NEARS FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THAT NEXT LOW. WINDS TO 30 KTS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...THEN ALL AREAS BY
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ242>244-263-264.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ242>244.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ARNOTT/APX
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
632 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
ALTHOUGH ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER WRN WI EARLY THIS
MORNING...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OUT OF UPPER MI DURING THE
NIGHT. THIS SLOW CLEARING IS A RESULT OF WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC IN
THE STRATUS BEARING LAYER BEING SO LIGHT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS
CENTER OF THE 925MB HIGH PRES CIRCULATION OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI.
WITH THIS CIRCULATION DRIFTING ESE...CLEARING IS NOW PROGRESSING
FAIRLY STEADILY THRU NW AND CNTRL UPPER MI. MEANWHILE...TO THE S OF
THE 925MB CIRCULATION CENTER...E/SE FLOW OFF LAKE MI HAS BROUGHT
STRATUS N AND W TO KMNM RECENTLY. WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR
LONGEST...NEAR THE WI BORDER...TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE IN THE
-20 TO -25F RANGE. WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPS
WILL STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO PLUMMET.
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING SE...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW QUICKLY
TAKES OVER TODAY...AND THIS WILL PUSH REMAINING STRATUS OUT OF THE
FCST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH
THE STRATUS THAT HAS EXPANDED OFF LAKE MI INTO ERN WI. THESE CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES MAY SPREAD NE FROM WI TO KESC/KISQ/KERY
TODAY. RIGHT NOW...FCST REFLECTS AN OPTIMISTIC SKY CONDITION IN THAT
AREA...BUT TRAJECTORIES ARE VERY CLOSE TO HAVING JUST ENOUGH
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO RESULT IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SE FCST AREA. OBVIOUSLY...CLOUD TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE
TEENS TODAY...INCREASING WINDS WILL ADD A CHILL TO THE AIR.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE WILL SWING SE...REACHING THE UPPER LAKES EARLY
WED MORNING. RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER FORCING AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -SN TONIGHT...AND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD SHOWING MORE COVERAGE OF PCPN. HAVE
THUS RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC ACROSS THE W HALF OVERNIGHT. WITH ONLY
MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT INDICATED...PCPN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW (LESS THAN 1 INCH). TEMPS WILL BE A
CHALLENGE TONIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY MAY ALLOW MORE
SHELTERED INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DIP TO ZERO OR BELOW BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE. OTHERWISE...SINGLE DIGITS INTERIOR TO CLOSER TO 10F ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE THE RULE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO PROPELS WEAK COLD FRONT OVER
UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. GREATEST LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
POINT TO LINGERING LGT SNOW IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST
CWA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING OVER KEWEENAW WITH WNW
WINDS AND MOISTURE TO H9 WITH TEMPS AT H9 BLO -14C...PLACING MOST
OF THE MOIST LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ. SHARP INVERSION PRESENT BLO 5KFT
WILL LIMIT INTENSITY BUT COULD SEE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF FLUFFY
ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE BACKING WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
DIMINISH THE LES. AWAY FM KEWEENAW...SUB H9 MOISTURE REMAINS IN WAKE
OF THE FROPA BUT IT WILL PROBABLY TRY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT
DURING THE AFTN. MIXING TO H925 SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOW 20S.
SFC LOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST FM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES PUSHES A WARM
FRONT TOWARD UPR LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION H8-H6 COULD PRODUCE PATCHY LGT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT AND WHERE SOUNDINGS SHOW GREATER SATURATION
BLO H8. SW WINDS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT RAMP UP WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KTS NEAR LK SUPERIOR FM KEWEENAW TO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY ON THURSDAY AND COULD BE QUITE BREEZY ON THE MORE
EXPOSED KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS SFC LOW CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO
DEEPENS BLO 995MB. SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL MIXED PROFILE THROUGH H9 WITH
WINDS UP TO 35 KTS. DUE TO A WELL MIXED BLYR AND ONLY MARGINAL
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY...CHANCES OF ANY LES IN WAKE OF SFC LOW SEEM
MINIMAL OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. MIXING TO 925-900MB
ON THURSDAY YIELDS MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S IF NOT LOWER 30S.
LOWEST TEMPS IN MID 20S EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OF ICE COVERED BAY OF
GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN.
COLDER AIR DOES FINALLY ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER QUEBEC. EVEN WITH H925/H85 TEMPS ON
GFS FALLING TO -18C/-16C BY 12Z ON FRIDAY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
WITH ECMWF SLIGHTLY LOWER AT H85...LES SHOULD BE DAMPENED BY DRY SUB
CLOUD LAYER AS SFC HIGH AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILD ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR FM NORTHERN ONTARIO. RAN WITH SMALL CHANCES IN NNW-NW FLOW
AREAS OF THE CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA NEAR LK SUPERIOR INTO EARLY
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME VARIABLE AND LOSE THEIR ONSHORE
COMPONENT. FLOW LOOKS DIFFLUENT IN LOW-LEVELS OVER THE WEST...SO
KEPT CONDITIONS DRY THERE. A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
MOST CWA IN THE 20S.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIG FM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE UPR
GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. TREND FOR THIS SYSTEM IS TO DIG
FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SHOWN A FEW DAYS AGO WHICH MAKES
SENSE AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO OVERALL LARGER SCALE TROUGH
ALOFT. CONSENSUS POINTS TO POPS OVER MAINLY THE NORTH...INFLUENCED
IN LARGE PART BY MOSTLY DRY GFS AND WETTER ECMWF. NUDGED CHANCE POPS
FARTHER SOUTH OVER UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION.
PTYPE COULD BE ISSUE AS WARM AIR SURGES IN ONCE MOST PRECIP TRIES TO
END. GFS/ECMWF SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM LAYER ALOFT POKING INTO THE
SCNTRL. IF ENOUGH PRECIP IS AROUND WITH ARRIVAL OF WARM LAYER COULD
SEE MIXED PRECIP ISSUES OVER MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST. FOR NOW KEPT
PYTPE AS SNOW...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE TREND IS FARTHER SOUTH WHICH
WOULD DRAG COOLER AIR OVER CWA. TEMPS HAVE GOOD CHANCE OF REACHING
LOW 30S OVER MUCH OF CWA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH NOT SURE HOW WE GET
THERE IN REGARD TO SATURDAY SYSTEM DETAILS...DOES APPEAR TO TURN
COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POPS FOR
NW FLOW AREAS FOR LES WERE RAMPED UP OVER CONSENSUS. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE TO WINDS/TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH STILL STAYING AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING HRS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTN...MAINLY AT
KIWD/KCMX. IT`S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE A TRANSITION TO LLWS THIS
EVENING IF SFC WINDS CAN DECOUPLE. TONIGHT...APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
ACTIVE LAST WEEK OF THE SHIPPING SEASON WITH STRONG WINDS AND SOME
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AT TIMES. SW GALES ALONG WITH HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT OVER WEST AND NCNTRL LK
SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT DROPS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. GALE
WARNINGS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY. LULL IS BRIEF AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
STRONG SW WINDS IS EXPECTED ON WED NIGHT TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. AGAIN THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER WEST AND NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR. LOW WILL DEEPEN
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS IT CROSSES JAMES BAY...RESULTING IN GOOD
CHANCE OF WESTERLY GALES 35-40 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE BY AFTN.
WINDS DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND
NEW LOW PRESSURE NEARS FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THAT NEXT LOW. WINDS TO 30 KTS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...THEN ALL AREAS BY
LATE SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR LSZ162-242>244-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
ALTHOUGH ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER WRN WI EARLY THIS
MORNING...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OUT OF UPPER MI DURING THE
NIGHT. THIS SLOW CLEARING IS A RESULT OF WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC IN
THE STRATUS BEARING LAYER BEING SO LIGHT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS
CENTER OF THE 925MB HIGH PRES CIRCULATION OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI.
WITH THIS CIRCULATION DRIFTING ESE...CLEARING IS NOW PROGRESSING
FAIRLY STEADILY THRU NW AND CNTRL UPPER MI. MEANWHILE...TO THE S OF
THE 925MB CIRCULATION CENTER...E/SE FLOW OFF LAKE MI HAS BROUGHT
STRATUS N AND W TO KMNM RECENTLY. WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR
LONGEST...NEAR THE WI BORDER...TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE IN THE
-20 TO -25F RANGE. WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPS
WILL STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO PLUMMET.
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING SE...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW QUICKLY
TAKES OVER TODAY...AND THIS WILL PUSH REMAINING STRATUS OUT OF THE
FCST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH
THE STRATUS THAT HAS EXPANDED OFF LAKE MI INTO ERN WI. THESE CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES MAY SPREAD NE FROM WI TO KESC/KISQ/KERY
TODAY. RIGHT NOW...FCST REFLECTS AN OPTIMISTIC SKY CONDITION IN THAT
AREA...BUT TRAJECTORIES ARE VERY CLOSE TO HAVING JUST ENOUGH
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO RESULT IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SE FCST AREA. OBVIOUSLY...CLOUD TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE
TEENS TODAY...INCREASING WINDS WILL ADD A CHILL TO THE AIR.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE WILL SWING SE...REACHING THE UPPER LAKES EARLY
WED MORNING. RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER FORCING AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -SN TONIGHT...AND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD SHOWING MORE COVERAGE OF PCPN. HAVE
THUS RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC ACROSS THE W HALF OVERNIGHT. WITH ONLY
MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT INDICATED...PCPN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW (LESS THAN 1 INCH). TEMPS WILL BE A
CHALLENGE TONIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY MAY ALLOW MORE
SHELTERED INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DIP TO ZERO OR BELOW BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE. OTHERWISE...SINGLE DIGITS INTERIOR TO CLOSER TO 10F ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE THE RULE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO PROPELS WEAK COLD FRONT OVER
UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. GREATEST LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
POINT TO LINGERING LGT SNOW IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST
CWA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING OVER KEWEENAW WITH WNW
WINDS AND MOISTURE TO H9 WITH TEMPS AT H9 BLO -14C...PLACING MOST
OF THE MOIST LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ. SHARP INVERSION PRESENT BLO 5KFT
WILL LIMIT INTENSITY BUT COULD SEE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF FLUFFY
ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE BACKING WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
DIMINISH THE LES. AWAY FM KEWEENAW...SUB H9 MOISTURE REMAINS IN WAKE
OF THE FROPA BUT IT WILL PROBABLY TRY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT
DURING THE AFTN. MIXING TO H925 SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOW 20S.
SFC LOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST FM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES PUSHES A WARM
FRONT TOWARD UPR LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION H8-H6 COULD PRODUCE PATCHY LGT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT AND WHERE SOUNDINGS SHOW GREATER SATURATION
BLO H8. SW WINDS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT RAMP UP WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KTS NEAR LK SUPERIOR FM KEWEENAW TO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY ON THURSDAY AND COULD BE QUITE BREEZY ON THE MORE
EXPOSED KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS SFC LOW CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO
DEEPENS BLO 995MB. SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL MIXED PROFILE THROUGH H9 WITH
WINDS UP TO 35 KTS. DUE TO A WELL MIXED BLYR AND ONLY MARGINAL
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY...CHANCES OF ANY LES IN WAKE OF SFC LOW SEEM
MINIMAL OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. MIXING TO 925-900MB
ON THURSDAY YIELDS MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S IF NOT LOWER 30S.
LOWEST TEMPS IN MID 20S EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OF ICE COVERED BAY OF
GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN.
COLDER AIR DOES FINALLY ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER QUEBEC. EVEN WITH H925/H85 TEMPS ON
GFS FALLING TO -18C/-16C BY 12Z ON FRIDAY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
WITH ECMWF SLIGHTLY LOWER AT H85...LES SHOULD BE DAMPENED BY DRY SUB
CLOUD LAYER AS SFC HIGH AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILD ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR FM NORTHERN ONTARIO. RAN WITH SMALL CHANCES IN NNW-NW FLOW
AREAS OF THE CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA NEAR LK SUPERIOR INTO EARLY
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME VARIABLE AND LOSE THEIR ONSHORE
COMPONENT. FLOW LOOKS DIFFLUENT IN LOW-LEVELS OVER THE WEST...SO
KEPT CONDITIONS DRY THERE. A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
MOST CWA IN THE 20S.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIG FM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE UPR
GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. TREND FOR THIS SYSTEM IS TO DIG
FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SHOWN A FEW DAYS AGO WHICH MAKES
SENSE AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO OVERALL LARGER SCALE TROUGH
ALOFT. CONSENSUS POINTS TO POPS OVER MAINLY THE NORTH...INFLUENCED
IN LARGE PART BY MOSTLY DRY GFS AND WETTER ECMWF. NUDGED CHANCE POPS
FARTHER SOUTH OVER UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION.
PTYPE COULD BE ISSUE AS WARM AIR SURGES IN ONCE MOST PRECIP TRIES TO
END. GFS/ECMWF SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM LAYER ALOFT POKING INTO THE
SCNTRL. IF ENOUGH PRECIP IS AROUND WITH ARRIVAL OF WARM LAYER COULD
SEE MIXED PRECIP ISSUES OVER MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST. FOR NOW KEPT
PYTPE AS SNOW...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE TREND IS FARTHER SOUTH WHICH
WOULD DRAG COOLER AIR OVER CWA. TEMPS HAVE GOOD CHANCE OF REACHING
LOW 30S OVER MUCH OF CWA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH NOT SURE HOW WE GET
THERE IN REGARD TO SATURDAY SYSTEM DETAILS...DOES APPEAR TO TURN
COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POPS FOR
NW FLOW AREAS FOR LES WERE RAMPED UP OVER CONSENSUS. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE TO WINDS/TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH STILL STAYING AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW A STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL HELP
MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH AROUND 09Z AT CMX/SAW. HOWEVER...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING SW WINDS WILL PUSH THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA....RESULTING IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. WITH THE
HIGH SINKING TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY AT IWD/CMX TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
ACTIVE LAST WEEK OF THE SHIPPING SEASON WITH STRONG WINDS AND SOME
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AT TIMES. SW GALES ALONG WITH HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT OVER WEST AND NCNTRL LK
SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT DROPS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. GALE
WARNINGS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY. LULL IS BRIEF AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
STRONG SW WINDS IS EXPECTED ON WED NIGHT TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. AGAIN THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER WEST AND NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR. LOW WILL DEEPEN
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS IT CROSSES JAMES BAY...RESULTING IN GOOD
CHANCE OF WESTERLY GALES 35-40 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE BY AFTN.
WINDS DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND
NEW LOW PRESSURE NEARS FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THAT NEXT LOW. WINDS TO 30 KTS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...THEN ALL AREAS BY
LATE SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR LSZ162-242>244-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
413 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS THE
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED LOW STRATUS. A FEW
BREAKS ARE SHOWING UP ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE DELTA
REGION...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRATUS DECK WILL RE-
SOLIDIFY IN NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MOST
OF THE ARKLAMISS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE PESSIMISTIC AND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN SUPERIOR TODAY TO THE
OPTIMISTIC SREF. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL SHUT DOWN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CLEARING.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WILL CAUSE JUST
ENOUGH BACKING OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION TO
GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...MAINLY AFFECTING THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH QPF
AND EVEN SUGGEST SOME QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE HATTISBURG AREA. HAVE
INCREASED MODEL BLEND GUIDANCE POPS SOME BASED ON THESE TRENDS...AND
ITS POSSIBLE THE RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED SOME MORE AS
GET CLOSER IN TIME. GUIDANCE THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN
ALL RAIN EVENT. /EC/
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SHOP OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINING FAIRLY ZONAL OVERHEAD. THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WILL LIKELY BE
THE COOLEST PERIOD THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
MAY EEK OUT A RATHER COLD FRI NIGHT AS WELL AS THE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS
OVER THOSE AREAS A BIT LATER. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE ON
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT EMERGES AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE GFS DEVELOPS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD BRING A BIGGER
PUSH OF DRIER AIR THAN SUGGESTED BY THE EURO...WHICH ESSENTIALLY
MAINTAINS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO MONDAY. WILL COMPROMISE AND
SHOW LOW END POPS MAINLY OVER THE WEST ON MONDAY. /DL/
&&
.AVIATION...
AT MID AFTERNOON IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WAS NOTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. THE CLEARING LINE WAS STAYING NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION. FOR THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT CEILINGS MAINTAIN LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY WEDNESDAY./17/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 30 47 34 48 / 5 4 22 16
MERIDIAN 31 49 35 48 / 6 3 16 21
VICKSBURG 29 44 34 48 / 5 4 22 14
HATTIESBURG 35 52 39 50 / 5 7 41 30
NATCHEZ 30 46 34 48 / 5 6 39 21
GREENVILLE 27 41 31 46 / 4 3 10 9
GREENWOOD 27 44 31 46 / 4 2 8 9
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/DL/17/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1037 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NECESSARY IN THIS UPDATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING IN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DELTA REGION...BUT DRIZZLE HAS ENDED THERE
SO NOT SEEING ANY ISSUES WITH -FZDZ. THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN OVER CNTRL/SRN LA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS IS CURRENTLY MOSTLY SOUTH OF
THE 31ST PARALLEL...BUT IT COULD DEVELOP NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND BRING VERY LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE PINE BELT
REGION. OTHERWISE...STRATUS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN TO CLEAR
OUT LOOKING AT THE LAST TRENDS WITH CONTINUED NNE FLOW/COLD
ADVECTION. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS IT SOLIDLY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE SLOWED CLEARING SOME. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES AS WELL. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE TRYING TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT FORTUNATELY THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL
SLIDE BY WELL TO OUR NORTH. STILL...RECEIVING A PERCENTAGE OF THE
COLD IN JUXTAPOSITION WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
FAR FROM PLEASANT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE WORST OF THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE TODAY. MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON...HELPING TO DRIVE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL AT
LEAST MIDDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE TO DROP SEVERAL
HOURS PAST SUNRISE AND FOR HIGHS I SIDED WITH THE LOW SIDE OF
OVERALL GUIDANCE BLENDS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT SUN WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL TRY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS DRY
ADVECTION STARTS TO WIN OUT OVER COLD ADVECTION...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST
PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS COULD REFORM ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. THESE PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD UP LOWS TO
NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW FREEZING IN THESE LATTER AREAS WHILE ELSEWHERE
MINIMUMS IN THE UPPER 20S ARE MORE LIKELY.
PHASING...YET DAMPENING...SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCES WILL BE APPROACHING BY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY CHILLY AS A MODERATE TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHIELD
FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COAST SPREADS ITS UPPER
FRINGES POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS SOME TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR
ABOVE FREEZING IN AREAS OF LOW RAIN CHANCES...BUT IN ACTUALITY IF IT
DOES RAIN THEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY VERIFY A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
SO...IN SHORT...POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER IN THE REGION OVER THIS
PERIOD IS LOOKING PRETTY LOW AND NOTHING IS REQUIRED IN THE HWO AT
THIS JUNCTURE. /BB/
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH AND A ZONAL UPPER JET IS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA. THOUGH
THE LOW WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE COAST...AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ENDING
MEASURABLE PRECIP POTENTIAL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SHOP OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINING FAIRLY ZONAL OVERHEAD. THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST PERIOD THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
MAY EEK OUT A RATHER COLD FRI NIGHT AS WELL AS THE RIDGE AXIS
LINGERS OVER THOSE AREAS A BIT LATER. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE
ON SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT
EMERGES AT THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE GFS DEVELOPS A DEEPER
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD
BRING A BIGGER PUSH OF DRIER AIR THAN SUGGESTED BY THE EURO...WHICH
ESSENTIALLY MAINTAINS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO MONDAY. WILL
COMPROMISE AND SHOW LOW END POPS MAINLY OVER THE WEST ON MONDAY. /DL/
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF LATE MORNING LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE NOTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH.
THE CLEARING LINE WAS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION FROM
ARKANSAS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT CEILINGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. CEILINGS WILL DIP TO LIFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE GOING BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR
THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION...WHICH WILL BECOME VFR THIS EVENING./17/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1047 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1018 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2015
Not much change to going forecast. Did increase sky cover for
southwest Illinois for lingering stratus. RAP 950 hPa moisture
does suggest what lingering stratus remains to try and advect
east/southeast across Mississippi River. Otherwise...a cold/dry
night is in store with coldest conditions across northeast
Missouri and west-central Illinois where some snow cover resides.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 140 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2015
Tranquil but cold weather expected tonight as the Arctic high
continues to settle into the MS Valley. Low clouds will continue
to clear from north to south through the remainder of the afternoon
into the early evening, while high clouds spread in from the
Plains later tonight. The coldest temps near zero should be found
in far northeast MO where there is 1-2 inches of snow cover.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 140 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2015
The expansive Arctic high will continue to dominate Tuesday and
Tuesday night and will even have some ramifications on Wednesday.
Continued cold and below average temperatures are expected in this
time frame. Things get a little more interesting on Wednesday. A
short wave trof currently over Alberta is forecast to dig
southeastward through the MS Valley region. This will initially
spread extensive high and mid clouds across the area on Tuesday
night and could end up producing some light snow across parts of
the area Wednesday. The latest model runs are a little more
robust with this wave than 24 hours ago, and it is accompanied by
relatively weak large scale ascent and weak mid level frontogenesis.
The negative factor is the dry low levels associated with the
Arctic high pressure which still has a southwest extension across
the area on Wednesday. The overall forcing/ascent with this wave
appear a bit weak to overcome the dry levels per current model
forecast soundings, but should the overall pattern of lift become
stronger or perhaps a narrow region of greater ascent materialize,
then some light snow is quite possible. At this point this would
seem most favored somewhere across central and northeast MO; certainly
the threat appears enough to add slight chance pops into the forecast.
I have kept with a chance of flurries elsewhere and extended them
into Wednesday night across eastern MO into southern IL.
If you like warmer weather than you should like the extended
forecast. Heights rise during the later part of the week in the
wake of this departing short wave trof and in association with
ridging building in from the Plains. The overall flow regime
becomes quasi-zonal in nature and is much flatter than we have
seen in quite some time. A nice temperature moderation/warm-up
will occur as a result with above normal highs into the 40s/lower
50s by Friday and Saturday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1024 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2015
Strong surface high pressure centered over MN, western WI and
northwest IA will continue to build southeastward through MO and
IL. N-nely surface wind will veer around to a nely direction
Tuesday morning, then become light Tuesday evening. The models
depict some shallow moisture in the surface/boundary layer
late tonight/early Tuesday morning, but am not expecting stratus
clouds to develop. The stratus clouds across southern and eastern
portions of IL will continue to advect southwestward and may
impact the St Louis metro area tafs, particularly CPS late
tonight/early Tuesday morning as the low level flow comes around
to an e-nely direction late tonight. High level cloudiness will
spread into the region Tuesday and Tuesday evening.
Specifics for KSTL: N-nely surface wind will continue to gradually
weaken late tonight, then veer around to a nely direction Tuesday
morning. Stratus clouds around 2000-3000 feet in height across
southern and eastern IL was advecting southwestward, and may
briefly impact STL late tonight/early Tuesday morning, although
most of the low level clouds should remain southeast of STL.
High level clouds will spread into STL Tuesday and Tuesday night.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1021 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1018 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2015
Not much change to going forecast. Did increase sky cover for
southwest Illinois for lingering stratus. RAP 950 hPa moisture
does suggest what lingering stratus remains to try and advect
east/southeast across Mississippi River. Otherwise...a cold/dry
night is in store with coldest conditions across northeast
Missouri and west-central Illinois where some snow cover resides.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 140 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2015
Tranquil but cold weather expected tonight as the Arctic high
continues to settle into the MS Valley. Low clouds will continue
to clear from north to south through the remainder of the afternoon
into the early evening, while high clouds spread in from the
Plains later tonight. The coldest temps near zero should be found
in far northeast MO where there is 1-2 inches of snow cover.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 140 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2015
The expansive Arctic high will continue to dominate Tuesday and
Tuesday night and will even have some ramifications on Wednesday.
Continued cold and below average temperatures are expected in this
time frame. Things get a little more interesting on Wednesday. A
short wave trof currently over Alberta is forecast to dig
southeastward through the MS Valley region. This will initially
spread extensive high and mid clouds across the area on Tuesday
night and could end up producing some light snow across parts of
the area Wednesday. The latest model runs are a little more
robust with this wave than 24 hours ago, and it is accompanied by
relatively weak large scale ascent and weak mid level frontogenesis.
The negative factor is the dry low levels associated with the
Arctic high pressure which still has a southwest extension across
the area on Wednesday. The overall forcing/ascent with this wave
appear a bit weak to overcome the dry levels per current model
forecast soundings, but should the overall pattern of lift become
stronger or perhaps a narrow region of greater ascent materialize,
then some light snow is quite possible. At this point this would
seem most favored somewhere across central and northeast MO; certainly
the threat appears enough to add slight chance pops into the forecast.
I have kept with a chance of flurries elsewhere and extended them
into Wednesday night across eastern MO into southern IL.
If you like warmer weather than you should like the extended
forecast. Heights rise during the later part of the week in the
wake of this departing short wave trof and in association with
ridging building in from the Plains. The overall flow regime
becomes quasi-zonal in nature and is much flatter than we have
seen in quite some time. A nice temperature moderation/warm-up
will occur as a result with above normal highs into the 40s/lower
50s by Friday and Saturday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 501 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2015
Strong surface high pressure centered over the eastern Dakotas
and MN will build southeastward into MO and IL. Nly surface winds
will gradually weaken tonight, and veer around to a nely direction
Tuesday morning. The models depict some shallow moisture in the
surface/boundary layer tonight, but am not expecting stratus
clouds to develop. Will have to watch for the possibility of the
stratus clouds across southern IL to advect southwestward into
CPS though as the low level flow comes around to an e-nely
direction tonight. High level cloudiness will spread into the
region on Tuesday.
Specifics for KSTL: Gusty nly surface winds will gradually weaken
tonight, then veer around to a nely direction Tuesday morning.
Stratus clouds around 2000 feet across southern IL was advecting
southwestward, but will likely remain southwest of STL tonight.
High level clouds will spread into STL Tuesday morning.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
930 PM MST Mon Jan 12 2015
Updated Aviation Discussion
.UPDATED...
Update forthcoming. Have adjusted hourly temperatures again to
better define the trend. Made no other significant changes to
current forecast. Fog likely to return to portions of North Central
Montana again overnight as low levels of the atmosphere remain
moist. Models hint at diffluence aloft over southwest Montana after
midnight and have gone with low pops that area for possible snow
showers. HRRR analysis also showing some precipitation over the
southwest after midnight.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.
Relatively weak flow aloft and at the surface persists over the
region into Tuesday morning. Broken mid-level cloud deck S of a line
from roughly KHLN to KLWT will gradually shift SE overnight with
clearing skies at SW MT terminals after midnight. Low levels remain
fairly moist/stagnant across most of Central/SW MT for potential fog
development or persistence through most of tonight. Hoenisch
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 256 PM MST Mon Jan 12 2015
Monday through Wednesday...Clearing skies as the upper level ridge
begins to move into the area, however biggest problem is going to
be temperatures and fog formation tonight across much of Central
and North Central Montana. Have added patchy fog to area for the
plains of Central and North Central Montana. Temperatures are also
going to be an issue for much of the overnight period tonight.
Models consistently have significantly high forecast temperatures
overnight, however they also had significantly warmer temperatures
for today`s highs when the low level inversion was going to
break(which has not happened). Have gone with a modified
persistence/RUC13 forecast solution that seems to capture the low
level cold air well. However if winds mix out the planetary
boundary layer in the next few hours, temperatures could climb
dramatically. With nighttime cooling at the surface though the
inversion will strengthen again and the odds of mixing out the
cold air near the surface will be dramatically less. The same
pattern should play out for Tuesday and Wednesday...however it
should become increasing likely that the inversion will break with
each passing day, and once it does temperatures should be similar
to the warm weather being experienced across much of Southwest
Montana. Suk
Wednesday Night through Monday...The upper-level ridge of
high pressure will break down Wednesday night and Thursday and be
replaced with an active Pacific weather pattern for the remainder of
the forecast period. Moist westerly flow aloft coupled with
progressive shortwaves will lead to enhanced precipitation over the
mountains along the Continental Divide, windy conditions along and
areas adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front, drier and milder
conditions over the plains. Long-range forecast models continue to
highlight differences in the timing of each shortwave as well as
precipitation coverage/amounts, however forecast confidence in the
overall pattern change continues to increase. Have kept temperatures
slightly above seasonal averages Thursday through Saturday and then
around seasonal averages for the latter half of the weekend into
early next week. Though the best precipitation chances will be in
the mountains where PoPs were increased to likely, mainly dry
conditions are expected over the plains through Friday. Beginning
Friday night, have increased PoPs to slight chance for lower
elevations as a series of stronger weather systems is expected to
bring a chance for rain and snow. As mentioned prior, forecast
confidence is low regarding precipitation coverage and amounts for
lower elevations and moderate for accumulating mountain snow. Windy
conditions, perhaps high winds 58 mph or greater along the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent plains are also possible at times
through the forecast period. MLV
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF -2 33 19 38 / 10 0 0 0
CTB -2 31 17 34 / 0 0 10 0
HLN 15 29 14 30 / 20 10 10 10
BZN 16 28 8 29 / 10 20 10 0
WEY 10 29 2 28 / 30 20 10 0
DLN 21 32 15 33 / 20 20 10 0
HVR -12 25 13 30 / 0 0 0 10
LWT 6 33 16 42 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1253 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT, LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE WITH LOWS
WELL BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1213 AM EST TUESDAY...A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN HAS PRODUCED SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO ACROSS PARTS OF CHITTENDEN COUNTY.
BAND SHIFTING RATHER QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO ADDISON COUNTY
AND STARTING TO WEAKEN AS DRIER AIR SURGES SOUTH BEHIND ARCTIC
FRONT. OVERALL TREND OF DRYING AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS STILL ON
TRACK FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MINOR ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
TRENDS AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. LINGERING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES HERE AND THERE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES AS OF 900 PM...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER. ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS HOUR AND WILL CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES FALLING MODESTLY
BEHIND INITIAL WIND SHIFT...BUT EVIDENCE IN THE HIGHER-RES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE 01Z RAP THAT A SECONDARY PRESSURE RISE AND
LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE WILL OCCUR BY LATE EVENING AND FORCE
TEMPERATURES SHARPLY COLDER TO BELOW ZERO IN ALL BUT FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. CLASSIC ARCTIC AIRMASS AND FASCINATING
TO LOOK AT AREA SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE INCREDIBLY SHALLOW DEPTH OF
THE COLD AIR...ONLY TO ABOUT 1000 FEET OR SO. THUS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WHILE OBVIOUSLY TRENDING QUITE COLD TONIGHT WILL
ACTUALLY BE A TAD WARMER THAN VALLEY LOCALES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WIND GUSTY INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SLOWLY ABATING LATER TONIGHT. THUS ALL WIND CHILL
HEADLINES REMAIN INTACT WITH THIS UPDATE. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 PM EST MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
LEADING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET BACK ABOVE ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY,
TOPPING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH TO LOW TEENS IN
EXTREME SOUTHERN VERMONT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH SO IT WON`T
BE TOO BRUTAL, AND WIND CHILLS SHOULD LOWER BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
BY MID-MORNING. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEYS,
BUT 925-850MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT SO WHILE
ELEVATIONS BELOW 1000FT SEE TEMPS FALL INTO TEENS TO 20S BELOW
ZERO, MID-SLOPES MAY STAY ABOVE ZERO AND THE SUMMITS MIGHT BE THE
WARM SPOT COME WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER THIS STRONG INVERSION.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH. LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOW SUIT AS WELL, WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS BUT STILL
CHILLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN
BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
MODERATING AND ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 20S
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM NRN
ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW...LIKELY DURING
FRIDAY MORNING. AGAIN...MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT LARGE-SCALE
FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
GENERALLY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY. MAY SEE A COATING TO 2" OF SNOWFALL WITH
THESE SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY HIGHEST OVER THE MTNS. LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...LIGHT WINDS/RADIATIVE COOLING
RESULTS IN COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT (WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO). SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST RATHER QUICKLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 30S ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS ONE LONE LAKE
ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHICH MAY
IMPACT KRUT AS THE WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH. IT WILL PRODUCE
A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR OF KPBG AS THE BAND SHIFTS SOUTH.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. DEW POINTS UPSTREAM ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER SO EXPECT THE BANDS OF SNOW OVER THE LAKE TO
END QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KBTV AND
KPBG AS THE NORTH WINDS OVER THE LAKE COULD PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS BUT WITH A LACK OF ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THERE
WILL BE NO SNOW WITH THOSE CLOUDS. THE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RELAXING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ001>009-016>018.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...DEAL/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1219 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT, LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE WITH LOWS
WELL BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1213 AM EST TUESDAY...A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN HAS PRODUCED SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO ACROSS PARTS OF CHITTENDEN COUNTY.
BAND SHIFTING RATHER QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO ADDISON COUNTY
AND STARTING TO WEAKEN AS DRIER AIR SURGES SOUTH BEHIND ARCTIC
FRONT. OVERALL TREND OF DRYING AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS STILL ON
TRACK FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MINOR ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
TRENDS AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. LINGERING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES HERE AND THERE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES AS OF 900 PM...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER. ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS HOUR AND WILL CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES FALLING MODESTLY
BEHIND INITIAL WIND SHIFT...BUT EVIDENCE IN THE HIGHER-RES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE 01Z RAP THAT A SECONDARY PRESSURE RISE AND
LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE WILL OCCUR BY LATE EVENING AND FORCE
TEMPERATURES SHARPLY COLDER TO BELOW ZERO IN ALL BUT FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. CLASSIC ARCTIC AIRMASS AND FASCINATING
TO LOOK AT AREA SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE INCREDIBLY SHALLOW DEPTH OF
THE COLD AIR...ONLY TO ABOUT 1000 FEET OR SO. THUS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WHILE OBVIOUSLY TRENDING QUITE COLD TONIGHT WILL
ACTUALLY BE A TAD WARMER THAN VALLEY LOCALES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WIND GUSTY INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SLOWLY ABATING LATER TONIGHT. THUS ALL WIND CHILL
HEADLINES REMAIN INTACT WITH THIS UPDATE. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 PM EST MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
LEADING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET BACK ABOVE ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY,
TOPPING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH TO LOW TEENS IN
EXTREME SOUTHERN VERMONT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH SO IT WON`T
BE TOO BRUTAL, AND WIND CHILLS SHOULD LOWER BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
BY MID-MORNING. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEYS,
BUT 925-850MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT SO WHILE
ELEVATIONS BELOW 1000FT SEE TEMPS FALL INTO TEENS TO 20S BELOW
ZERO, MID-SLOPES MAY STAY ABOVE ZERO AND THE SUMMITS MIGHT BE THE
WARM SPOT COME WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER THIS STRONG INVERSION.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH. LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOW SUIT AS WELL, WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS BUT STILL
CHILLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN
BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
MODERATING AND ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 20S
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM NRN
ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW...LIKELY DURING
FRIDAY MORNING. AGAIN...MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT LARGE-SCALE
FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
GENERALLY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY. MAY SEE A COATING TO 2" OF SNOWFALL WITH
THESE SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY HIGHEST OVER THE MTNS. LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...LIGHT WINDS/RADIATIVE COOLING
RESULTS IN COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT (WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO). SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST RATHER QUICKLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 30S ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO
VFR AREA-WIDE AFTER 03Z. WILL ALSO SEE THE LOWER STRATUS (MVFR
CEILINGS) GRADUALLY CLEAR...BUT LINGERING LONGEST IN AREAS OF
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO SOME LAKE-
ENHANCEMENT WITH COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. SHOULD SEE A TREND TOWARDS
CLEARING BEGINNING AT 00Z MSS...05Z-08Z PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK...AND 12Z
BTV. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
LINGERING LAKE CLOUDS STILL POSSIBLE AT BTV/PBG. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS...BUT DECREASE TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS AND TURN NORTHERLY FOR TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ001>009-016>018.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION.... TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO A VERY FAVORABLE LOCATION
(ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.) TO DELIVER CONTINUED COLD DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION WE WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE.... WITH LOCATIONS
GENERALLY ALONG AN EAST OF A LINE FROM ROXBORO TO SILER CITY AND
WADESBORO SEEING AT LEAST A GOOD TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
PRECIP (LIQUID EQ). GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH...
COUPLED WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE EXPECT WE WILL SEE PRECIP
BLOSSOM OVER THE AREA (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC)... INITIALLY AS RAIN AND POSSIBLY SLEET... THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITING TO FREEZING RAIN OR A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
AS WETBULB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY
06Z WEDNESDAY OR SO... AND AS EARLY AS 00Z ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF
THE AREA. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER FOR THIS PERIOD... WHICH
PROMPTED THE EVENING SHIFT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT AS CONTINUED DRY AIR WILL HELP
OFFSET THE RELEASE OF LATENT HEAT FROM PHASE CHANGE. FOR NOW WE PLAN
TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS... AND ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. EXPECT ICE ACCRUAL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR A TRACE IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT TO AS MUCH AS A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE WATCH AREA. WHILE
A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS DO NOT SEEM LIKE THAT MUCH IN THE
TRIAD TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING... ALLOWING FOR SLICK SPOTS TO DEVELOP ON AREA
ROADS... SIDEWALKS... AND BRIDGES. WRT THE WATCH AREA.... WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW MODELS ARE HANDLING THE S/W DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION. WE HAVE A HIGH
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST AN ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY.
HOWEVER... A WINTER STORM WARNING MAYBE NEED FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. THUS... WILL KEEP THE WATCH
OUT FOR NOW. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
THE S/W DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... THE CAD AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE AND RESULT IN A SLOW WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY AND
CLOUDY SKIES WITH POCKETS OF LINGERING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
EXPECT TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON (LAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN). HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S... WITH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST REACHING THE UPPER 30S.
-BSD
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...
OTHER THAN SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE COME TO AN END BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEGINNING WHAT NOW APPEARS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SYNOPTICALLY A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO DIG OVER THE AREA WITH THE AXIS
OVER THE CAROLINAS BY 6Z FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN...THE CWA WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE HOWEVER THE FLOW WILL REMAIN INITIALLY NORTHEASTERLY...THEN
CALMING AND BACKING TO NORTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S ON
THURSDAY.
A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO APPROACHES THE
AREA BUT MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER OR NOT PRECIPIATION MAKES IT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ENCROACH ON THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA.
REGARDLESS OF IF IT DOES OR NOT...PRECIPIATION WILL REMAIN ALL
LIQUID WITH FAIRLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME AS RAIN. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S NW TO SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMUP COMMENCES FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER TROF PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL EDGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS
HEIGHTS BUILD...IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AFTER MORNING LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 20S. OUR HIGH TEMPS WILL MAX OUT ON SUNDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES SMOOTHLY ACROSS THE AREA
AND OFFSHORE...WITH ENSUING RETURN FLOW NUDGING HIGHS TO 55 TO
60...ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE SKIRTING THE GREAT LAKES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF A WEAK AND DRY COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH SOME MILDLY COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL STILL REACH 3-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THE LOW TO MID 50S...AFTER MORNING LOWS
AROUND FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT SOME
IF NOT ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN AFTER 3Z THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY AT CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DOMINATE THE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME
SPORADIC VFR AND IFR TEMPOS. VISIBILITIES WILL LARGELY STAY VFR BUT
SOME DECLINE TO AT LEAST MVFR LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO THE MVFR CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WELL. WIND WILL BE
GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS IN SOME
SPOTS.
MOVING INTO TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING AND THE
CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AFTER 3Z OR SO FOR NORTHERN
SITES AND AFTER 6Z FOR SOUTHERN SITES. ACCUMULATIONS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BUT KRDU AND KRWI
COULD SEE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THIS WOULD BE THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS AND THEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FOR KFAY AS WELL.
IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
TAPERING OFF. WINDS WILL ALSO START TO DECREASE IN SPEED INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT CEILINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST WILL KEEP WEATHER
UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT PRECIPIATION WITH
THIS LOW SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. SOME PATCHY FOG AND PERIODS OF
PRECIPIATION WILL POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HELP VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ008>011-025>028-041>043-077-078-086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY
FOR NCZ007-021>024-038>040-073>076-083>085.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLAES/BSD
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
251 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS/TEMPS AND FLURRY OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SE. LOOKING AT CURRENT
CONDITIONS IT IS CLEARING OFF ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA. THE
THICKER CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS TO
THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER BAND OF LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ND IS SINKING
SOUTH AND THINK THAT TREND WILL ALSO CONTINUE. THEREFORE MOST OF
THE FA SHOULD STAY CLEAR UNTIL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
CLIPPER START TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST FA LATE. TEMPS COULD TAKE
A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER RIDE...DROPPING ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT
THIS EVENING AND THEN RISE SOME LATE AS THE NEXT BATCH OF CLOUDS
MOVES IN. ALL SAID...TRICKY...ESPECIALLY SINCE GUIDANCE TEMPS HAVE
BEEN SO BAD LATELY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LITTLE BETTER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN CENTRAL SD...WHERE THE REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW A FEW STRONGER ECHOES. SOME OF THE WEAKER ECHOES ARE
TRYING TO MAKE IT UP INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FA BUT NOTHING IS BEING
REPORTED AT THE SFC YET. WILL LEAVE THE LOW LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SE EARLY THIS EVENING TO COVER THIS. NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN/NE FA WED/WED EVENING
AND WILL SPREAD A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW TO AREAS ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER TOWARD THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
SFC HIGH DROPS FROM NORTH OF THE MANITOBA LAKES REGION BY 00Z FRI
INTO SW ONTARIO BY 12Z FRI. SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS TRY TO BREAK
OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS...OR OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND. HAVE IGNORED THIS FOR NOW AND WILL SEE
WHAT LATER SOLUTIONS BRING. NEXT CLIPPER WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHERN FA BY FRI AFTERNOON...BASICALLY GIVING THE NORTHERN
VALLEY TOWARD THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA ANOTHER DUSTING OF LIGHT
SNOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE WESTERLY OR
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH THE TIMING OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE MAIN CHALLENGE. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
COMING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGH AND SATURDAY...WITH ALL MODELS TAKING THE
SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH COLD AIR AND SOME
LIGHT WRAP AROUND PRECIP COMING IN BEHIND IT. SUNDAY THE ECMWF HAS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRY. WITH
THE HIGH AMOUNT OF SPREAD...WILL KEEP THE BLENDED SOLUTION AS A BEST
GUESS FOR TIMING. TEMPS WILL COME DOWN A BIT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT RECOVER QUICKLY AS EVEN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THE TRUE
ARCTIC AIR IS NOT TAPPED. OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
SAT LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOW SOME VFR CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 6000 FT
MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD IMPACT THE
KFAR AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT TIMES. THINK THAT WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO GO DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL ND MOVES EAST. OVER EASTERN MT THERE ARE SOME MVFR AND
IFR CIGS JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THE RAP SHOWS THIS LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN LATER THIS EVENING. INCLUDED A MVFR MENTION
AT ALL BUT KFAR AS THERE WILL BE SOME PERIOD OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS. DO
NOT THINK IT WILL BE LONG LASTING AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST
AND THEN BACK TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1249 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
FINGER OF CLOUDS THAT WAS APPROACHING THE SW FA DURING THE LAST
UPDATE IS NOW EXTENDING UP AND DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOOKS
LIKE THEY SHOULD CONTINUE PROGRESSING EAST THRU THE AFTERNOON.
THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM ADVECTION AND ARE ALSO
HELPING TO BOOST SFC TEMPS BACK ABOVE ZERO. LOOKS LIKE THERE
SHOULD BE DECREASING CLOUDS IN THEIR WAKE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS PCPN CHANCES...REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS
ECHOES OVER EASTERN SD...SOME AS FAR NORTH AS KABR. HOWEVER
NOTHING WAS REPORTED AT KABR AS THEY MOVED THRU. LIGHT SNOW IS
BEING REPORTED AT KPIR AND KHON IN EAST CENTRAL SD. NOT SURE HOW
FAR NORTH THIS LITTLE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL GET...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT AT THIS POINT. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP
ANYTHING SOUTH OF THE FA. 12Z GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW SOME MINIMAL
QPF ACROSS THE FAR SE SO WILL DECREASE PCPN CHANCES A LITTLE BUT
KEEP THEM WHERE THEY WERE. MAY BE MORE OF A FLURRY EVENT THAN
ANYTHING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRATION TIME OF 10AM LOOKS GOOD.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. A PARADE OF UPPER WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
THIS PERIOD. ANTICIPATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW (WARM AIR
ADVECTION) AHEAD OF EACH UPPER WAVE...AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
(COLD AIR ADVECTION) FLOW BEHIND EACH UPPER WAVE. TIMING OF THESE
WAVES WILL AFFECT MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE VALUES...BUT OVERALL MUCH
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
STRONGEST SIGNALS FOR -SN ARE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WC MN...AND
WED AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA. KEPT CHANCES BELOW LIKELY
CATEGORY UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED. THESE -SN CHANCES
SHOULD PRODUCE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ANYWAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN FROM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD CONTINUES. THERE ARE NOT YET ANY STRONG SIGNALS FOR PRECIP
THIS PERIOD.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMP REGIME INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT REMAINS
TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. THE EC CONTINUES TO BE COOLER THAN
THE GEM AND GFS WITH WRT THE COLD INTRUSIONS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS ALONG THE WNW FLOW ALOFT. WILL
CONTINUE THE ONGOING SLIGHT POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH
THE FIRST WAVE SATURDAY MORNING AND WITH ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. MAX
TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD IN THE 20S AND 30S...WELL ABOVE THE MID JANUARY
NORMALS OF LOW TO MID TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
SAT LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOW SOME VFR CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 6000 FT
MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD IMPACT THE
KFAR AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT TIMES. THINK THAT WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO GO DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL ND MOVES EAST. OVER EASTERN MT THERE ARE SOME MVFR AND
IFR CIGS JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THE RAP SHOWS THIS LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN LATER THIS EVENING. INCLUDED A MVFR MENTION
AT ALL BUT KFAR AS THERE WILL BE SOME PERIOD OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS. DO
NOT THINK IT WILL BE LONG LASTING AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST
AND THEN BACK TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1225 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
LATEST 17 UTC RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF MVFR-IFR CLOUDS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES
REPORTED FROM BEACH TO WILLISTON SO WILL ADD A MENTION TO THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL REVISIT WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TO SEE IF
WE NEED TO EXTEND THIS INTO THE CENTRAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. UPDATED SKY COVER BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP GUIDANCE PROGRESSING THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
LOOK REASONABLE SO NO ADJUSTMENTS HERE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
WILL CANCEL/EXPIRE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE MAIN ISSUE IS A BAND OF IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND CUT BACK ON CLOUD
AMOUNT AS NOTED BY LATEST HRRR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
WILL TRIM THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS
WHERE CHILLS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE CRITERIA. WILL LEAVE EASTERN N
SECTIONS GOING THROUGH 15Z. COMPLICATED STRATUS FIELD FORMING IN
RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEN COLD FRONTAL STRATUS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WEST LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE THE CURRENT WIND CHILL
ADVISORY HEADLINE...CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
APPROACHING THE FAR NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...THE CURRENT FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A CLEAR
SKY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...CLOUDS IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING ADAMS AND SIOUX
COUNTIES. THIS IS PICKED UP BY THE HRRR AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 18Z. WITH CLOUDS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY THIS MORNING...A PORTION OF THE
ONGOING WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
A POSSIBLE EARLY CANCELLATION PRIOR TO 16Z. OTHERWISE THE REST OF
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AREA LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH 16Z.
ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS LOCATED IN EASTERN MONTANA IS ALSO GETTING
CLOSER TO THE WESTERN BORDER...NEAR BEACH. SO FAR CEILINGS WITH
BOTH THE SOUTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA CLOUDS ARE AROUND 5000FT...WITH
THE TRUE STRATUS DECK FILTERING IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN.
WITH THAT SAID...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT
PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL AFFECT NORTH DAKOTA. THE FIRST
WAS SLIDING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE SECOND
WAS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. UNDERNEATH WAS THE REFLECTION OF A
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH A COLD POCKET OF AIR/-4C TO -6C
REFLECTED AT 850MB. THE STRATUS PER HRRR MODEL WILL ARRIVE IN
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 16Z-18Z AND THEN CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MID AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HAVE UTILIZED
A BLEND OF THE HRRR/RAP13 FOR SKY GRIDS TODAY...AND THE NAM FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY THE STRATUS DECK A FEW HOURS LATER.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY RE-ESTABLISHES
ITSELF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLIDES THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN. THE STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION/OMEGA
FIELD REMAINS IN CENTRAL/EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA FROM 06Z- 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE NAM/GFS HOLD THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH 12Z WEDS. THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FARTHER WEST. THE GEM
PRODUCES SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CROSBY TO AROUND SHERWOOD
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE SREF SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION ALSO
NORTH OF THE BORDER...HAVE PAINTED IN 14 POPS ALONG THE BORDER
TOWARD 12Z WEDS...AS THE SHORT TERM PERIOD COMES TO AN END. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A GOOD WARMING TREND AS
MID LEVEL FLOWS STRENGTHEN AND GRADUALLY BACK FROM A NORTHWEST TO
A WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG A WARM FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTH CENTRAL. CURRENT POPS
ARE LOW (20) WITH THE NAM DRY AND THE GFS JUST SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIP. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW LAYERS WHICH IS
PROBLEMATIC FOR DETERMINING PRECIP TYPE. COOLING THE THERMAL
PROFILES TO THE WET BULB RESULT IN ALL SNOW. BUT BOURGOUIN PROCESS
FROM THE BUFKIT ANALYSIS WANTS TO PAINT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
ALL IN ALL ONLY 20 POPS SO DECENT CHANCE IT WILL BE DRY AFTER ALL.
FOR NOW LEFT IF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOW A
NICE WARM UP INTO THE 40S SOUTHWEST TO THE 30S CENTRAL AND NORTH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL HAVE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION
WITH LOW POPS THROUGH OUT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW OR JET STREAM
ENERGY REMAINS MODERATE TO STRONG BUT MOISTURE IS WEAK. THE RESULT
WILL BE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH LITTLE MOISTURE,
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
A BAND OF CLOUDS IS PROJECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS BAND WAS CREATING IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW IN
KISN. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN EACH OF THE TAF
SITES...AS THE CLOUDS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE LATEST RAP MODEL
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND PROJECTS THE BAND
HOLDING TOGETHER AND MOVING INTO KBIS AND KJMS...LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
955 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
WILL CANCEL/EXPIRE THE WIND CHILL ADVIOSRY FOR THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE MAIN ISSUE IS A BAND OF IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND CUT BACK ON CLOUD
AMOUNT AS NOTED BY LATERST HRRR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
WILL TRIM THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS
WHERE CHILLS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE CRITERIA. WILL LEAVE EASTERN N
SECTIONS GOING THROUGH 15Z. COMPLICATED STRATUS FIELD FORMING IN
RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEN COLD FRONTAL STRATUS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WEST LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE THE CURRENT WIND CHILL
ADVISORY HEADLINE...CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
APPROACHING THE FAR NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...THE CURRENT FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A CLEAR
SKY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...CLOUDS IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING ADAMS AND SIOUX
COUNTIES. THIS IS PICKED UP BY THE HRRR AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 18Z. WITH CLOUDS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY THIS MORNING...A PORTION OF THE
ONGOING WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
A POSSIBLE EARLY CANCELLATION PRIOR TO 16Z. OTHERWISE THE REST OF
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AREA LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH 16Z.
ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS LOCATED IN EASTERN MONTANA IS ALSO GETTING
CLOSER TO THE WESTERN BORDER...NEAR BEACH. SO FAR CEILINGS WITH
BOTH THE SOUTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA CLOUDS ARE AROUND 5000FT...WITH
THE TRUE STRATUS DECK FILTERING IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN.
WITH THAT SAID...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT
PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL AFFECT NORTH DAKOTA. THE FIRST
WAS SLIDING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE SECOND
WAS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. UNDERNEATH WAS THE REFLECTION OF A
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH A COLD POCKET OF AIR/-4C TO -6C
REFLECTED AT 850MB. THE STRATUS PER HRRR MODEL WILL ARRIVE IN
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 16Z-18Z AND THEN CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MID AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HAVE UTILIZED
A BLEND OF THE HRRR/RAP13 FOR SKY GRIDS TODAY...AND THE NAM FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY THE STRATUS DECK A FEW HOURS LATER.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY RE-ESTABLISHES
ITSELF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLIDES THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN. THE STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION/OMEGA
FIELD REMAINS IN CENTRAL/EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA FROM 06Z- 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE NAM/GFS HOLD THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH 12Z WEDS. THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FARTHER WEST. THE GEM
PRODUCES SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CROSBY TO AROUND SHERWOOD
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE SREF SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION ALSO
NORTH OF THE BORDER...HAVE PAINTED IN 14 POPS ALONG THE BORDER
TOWARD 12Z WEDS...AS THE SHORT TERM PERIOD COMES TO AN END. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A GOOD WARMING TREND AS
MID LEVEL FLOWS STRENGTHEN AND GRADUALLY BACK FROM A NORTHWEST TO
A WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG A WARM FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTH CENTRAL. CURRENT POPS
ARE LOW (20) WITH THE NAM DRY AND THE GFS JUST SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIP. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW LAYERS WHICH IS
PROBLEMATIC FOR DETERMINING PRECIP TYPE. COOLING THE THERMAL
PROFILES TO THE WET BULB RESULT IN ALL SNOW. BUT BOURGOUIN PROCESS
FROM THE BUFKIT ANALYSIS WANTS TO PAINT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
ALL IN ALL ONLY 20 POPS SO DECENT CHANCE IT WILL BE DRY AFTER ALL.
FOR NOW LEFT IF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOW A
NICE WARM UP INTO THE 40S SOUTHWEST TO THE 30S CENTRAL AND NORTH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL HAVE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION
WITH LOW POPS THROUGH OUT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW OR JET STREAM
ENERGY REMAINS MODERATE TO STRONG BUT MOISTURE IS WEAK. THE RESULT
WILL BE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH LITTLE MOISTURE,
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE AN AREA OF STRATUS BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL SLIDE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO FIRST IMPACT KISN FROM 17Z-22Z
TUESDAY. THE STRATUS MAY THEN MOVE INTO KMOT/KBIS/KDIK BEGINNING
AROUND 20Z. KJMS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS FROM 14Z TO 18Z
WITH THE STRATUS/MVFR CIGS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ004-005-
013-023-025-037-048-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
625 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
WILL TRIM THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS
WHERE CHILLS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE CRITERIA. WILL LEAVE EASTERN N
SECTIONS GOING THROUGH 15Z. COMPLICATED STRATUS FIELD FORMING IN
RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEN COLD FRONTAL STRATUS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WEST LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE THE CURRENT WIND CHILL
ADVISORY HEADLINE...CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
APPROACHING THE FAR NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...THE CURRENT FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A CLEAR
SKY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...CLOUDS IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING ADAMS AND SIOUX
COUNTIES. THIS IS PICKED UP BY THE HRRR AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 18Z. WITH CLOUDS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY THIS MORNING...A PORTION OF THE
ONGOING WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
A POSSIBLE EARLY CANCELLATION PRIOR TO 16Z. OTHERWISE THE REST OF
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AREA LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH 16Z.
ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS LOCATED IN EASTERN MONTANA IS ALSO GETTING
CLOSER TO THE WESTERN BORDER...NEAR BEACH. SO FAR CEILINGS WITH
BOTH THE SOUTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA CLOUDS ARE AROUND 5000FT...WITH
THE TRUE STRATUS DECK FILTERING IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN.
WITH THAT SAID...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT
PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL AFFECT NORTH DAKOTA. THE FIRST
WAS SLIDING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE SECOND
WAS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. UNDERNEATH WAS THE REFLECTION OF A
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH A COLD POCKET OF AIR/-4C TO -6C
REFLECTED AT 850MB. THE STRATUS PER HRRR MODEL WILL ARRIVE IN
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 16Z-18Z AND THEN CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MID AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HAVE UTILIZED
A BLEND OF THE HRRR/RAP13 FOR SKY GRIDS TODAY...AND THE NAM FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY THE STRATUS DECK A FEW HOURS LATER.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY RE-ESTABLISHES
ITSELF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLIDES THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN. THE STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION/OMEGA
FIELD REMAINS IN CENTRAL/EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA FROM 06Z- 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE NAM/GFS HOLD THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH 12Z WEDS. THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FARTHER WEST. THE GEM
PRODUCES SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CROSBY TO AROUND SHERWOOD
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE SREF SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION ALSO
NORTH OF THE BORDER...HAVE PAINTED IN 14 POPS ALONG THE BORDER
TOWARD 12Z WEDS...AS THE SHORT TERM PERIOD COMES TO AN END. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A GOOD WARMING TREND AS
MID LEVEL FLOWS STRENGTHEN AND GRADUALLY BACK FROM A NORTHWEST TO
A WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG A WARM FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTH CENTRAL. CURRENT POPS
ARE LOW (20) WITH THE NAM DRY AND THE GFS JUST SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIP. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW LAYERS WHICH IS
PROBLEMATIC FOR DETERMINING PRECIP TYPE. COOLING THE THERMAL
PROFILES TO THE WET BULB RESULT IN ALL SNOW. BUT BOURGOUIN PROCESS
FROM THE BUFKIT ANALYSIS WANTS TO PAINT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
ALL IN ALL ONLY 20 POPS SO DECENT CHANCE IT WILL BE DRY AFTER ALL.
FOR NOW LEFT IF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOW A
NICE WARM UP INTO THE 40S SOUTHWEST TO THE 30S CENTRAL AND NORTH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL HAVE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION
WITH LOW POPS THROUGH OUT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW OR JET STREAM
ENERGY REMAINS MODERATE TO STRONG BUT MOISTURE IS WEAK. THE RESULT
WILL BE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH LITTLE MOISTURE,
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE AN AREA OF STRATUS BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL SLIDE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO FIRST IMPACT KISN FROM 16Z-22Z TUESDAY.
THE STRATUS WILL THEN MOVE INTO KMOT/KBIS/KDIK BEGINNING AROUND 20Z.
KJMS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS FROM 14Z TO 18Z WITH THE
STRATUS/MVFR CIGS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS
LOOK TO BE MAINTAINED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY EXCEPT
AT KISN AND KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ004-005-
013-023-025-037-048-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
323 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE THE CURRENT WIND CHILL
ADVISORY HEADLINE...CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
APPROACHING THE FAR NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...THE CURRENT FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A CLEAR
SKY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...CLOUDS IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING ADAMS AND SIOUX
COUNTIES. THIS IS PICKED UP BY THE HRRR AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 18Z. WITH CLOUDS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY THIS MORNING...A PORTION OF THE
ONGOING WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
A POSSIBLE EARLY CANCELLATION PRIOR TO 16Z. OTHERWISE THE REST OF
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AREA LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH 16Z.
ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS LOCATED IN EASTERN MONTANA IS ALSO GETTING
CLOSER TO THE WESTERN BORDER...NEAR BEACH. SO FAR CEILINGS WITH
BOTH THE SOUTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA CLOUDS ARE AROUND 5000FT...WITH
THE TRUE STRATUS DECK FILTERING IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN.
WITH THAT SAID...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT
PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL AFFECT NORTH DAKOTA. THE FIRST
WAS SLIDING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE SECOND
WAS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. UNDERNEATH WAS THE REFLECTION OF A
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH A COLD POCKET OF AIR/-4C TO -6C
REFLECTED AT 850MB. THE STRATUS PER HRRR MODEL WILL ARRIVE IN
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 16Z-18Z AND THEN CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MID AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HAVE UTILIZED
A BLEND OF THE HRRR/RAP13 FOR SKY GRIDS TODAY...AND THE NAM FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY THE STRATUS DECK A FEW HOURS LATER.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY RE-ESTABLISHES
ITSELF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLIDES THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN. THE STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION/OMEGA
FIELD REMAINS IN CENTRAL/EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA FROM 06Z- 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE NAM/GFS HOLD THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH 12Z WEDS. THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FARTHER WEST. THE GEM
PRODUCES SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CROSBY TO AROUND SHERWOOD
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE SREF SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION ALSO
NORTH OF THE BORDER...HAVE PAINTED IN 14 POPS ALONG THE BORDER
TOWARD 12Z WEDS...AS THE SHORT TERM PERIOD COMES TO AN END. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A GOOD WARMING TREND AS
MID LEVEL FLOWS STRENGTHEN AND GRADUALLY BACK FROM A NORTHWEST TO
A WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG A WARM FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTH CENTRAL. CURRENT POPS
ARE LOW (20) WITH THE NAM DRY AND THE GFS JUST SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIP. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW LAYERS WHICH IS
PROBLEMATIC FOR DETERMINING PRECIP TYPE. COOLING THE THERMAL
PROFILES TO THE WET BULB RESULT IN ALL SNOW. BUT BOURGOUIN PROCESS
FROM THE BUFKIT ANALYSIS WANTS TO PAINT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
ALL IN ALL ONLY 20 POPS SO DECENT CHANCE IT WILL BE DRY AFTER ALL.
FOR NOW LEFT IF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOW A
NICE WARM UP INTO THE 40S SOUTHWEST TO THE 30S CENTRAL AND NORTH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL HAVE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION
WITH LOW POPS THROUGH OUT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW OR JET STREAM
ENERGY REMAINS MODERATE TO STRONG BUT MOISTURE IS WEAK. THE RESULT
WILL BE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH LITTLE MOISTURE,
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS/KISN AND
KDIK BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z TUESDAY...AND THE CENTRAL AERODROMES
KMOT/KBIS/KJMS BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF
STRATUS LOCATED IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN MONTANA...AND
WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR STRATUS SHOULD
BE WITH THE AREA NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WHICH MOVES INTO THE WEST BY
18Z TUESDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z.
UNTIL THEN EXPECT PATCHES OF STRATUS/MVFR AND LOW VFR CIGS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ003>005-
011>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1159 PM CST MON JAN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST MON JAN 12 2015
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. AN H85 COLD POCKET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS RELATIVELY SMALL...WEAK...AND
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MID
MORNING TUESDAY...AND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS FRONT WILL MAINLY SERVE AS A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
AS IT PASSES THROUGH. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO
DISTINCT SHORTWAVES SUPPORTING THIS WEAK FRONT. THE FIRST WAS
MIGRATING THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH A SECOND WAVE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THESE WILL PROPAGATE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
THE MONTANA SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A MOISTENING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS. CURRENTLY WATCHING A FEW AREAS THAT ARE EDGING CLOSER
TO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ONE AREA WAS DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A SECOND AREA IN EASTERN
MONTANA...AND THE THIRD WAS FILLING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN
WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE NAM/RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE HRRR CIG FORECAST PRODUCE PATCHY STRATUS AT TIMES LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BUT IT APPEARS THE BETTER
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COME FROM THE STRATUS
IN SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CURRENT WIND CHILL
ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.
REST OF FORECAST IS ALSO ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 PM CST MON JAN 12 2015
LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW CLOUD COVER INCREASING
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE
AMENDED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CST MON JAN 12 2015
GOING FORECAST IS IN RATHER GOOD SHAPE AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. MAIN CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...BUT
THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN MORE. WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE
NEW MODEL DATA AND THIS MAY NEED TO ADDRESSED IN SUBSEQUENT
UPDATES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST MON JAN 12 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING
WIND CHILLS.
CURRENTLY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE DIMINISHING STRATUS CLOUDS
ARE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE STATE.
TONIGHT...EXPECT A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS INTO THE 15 TO 30 BELOW RANGE...WITH AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA LONG ENOUGH
THAT WE WILL NEED ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT. THANKFULLY
THIS WILL WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN A WHILE. WILL START THE ADVISORY
AT 8 PM AND RUN IT THROUGH 10 AM TUESDAY.
WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW...BOUNDARY LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE TONIGHT. THIS MORNING...FOG DEVELOPED OVER AREAS OF
EASTERN MONTANA. THINK THIS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SOMEWHERE IN WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER LOW LYING AND
PROTECTED AREAS. WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG WEST. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
NEARLY STEADY EAST AND RISING WEST.
WE ARE WELL INTO THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY...REACHING THE 20S ACROSS THE
WEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST MON JAN 12 2015
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
THE PERSISTENT GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGING TO MOVE FURTHER
EAST...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS WEEKEND.
THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. THIS WIND DIRECTION FAVORS DOWN SLOPING AND WILL PROVIDE
A REINFORCEMENT OF WARMER...AND DRYER AIR.
THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 30S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
EVEN ENTER THE 40S. INITIALLY...SNOW COVERED GROUND MAY LIMIT
HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLIER THIS WEEK. BUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOST IF NOT ALL SNOW SHOULD BE MELTED BY
THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE THIS LEADS TO ITS OWN SET OF PROBLEMS AS
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. ICY ROADS
AND FOG MAY BECOME ISSUES LATER THIS WEEK WITH MELTING SNOW
REFREEZING AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING UP.
OVERALL THE WEEK LOOKS DRY. THERE ARE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FORECAST
TO SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THEY
WILL PROVIDE NORTH DAKOTA WITH LITTLE MORE THAN CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT JOG SOUTH AND LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA COULD BE IN A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SOME SNOW. OF COURSE
THESE WAVES WILL BE MONITORED AND ANALYZED IN FOLLOWING FORECAST
UPDATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST MON JAN 12 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS/KISN AND
KDIK BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z TUESDAY...AND THE CENTRAL AERODROMES
KMOT/KBIS/KJMS BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF
STRATUS LOCATED IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN MONTANA...AND
WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR STRATUS SHOULD
BE WITH THE AREA NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WHICH MOVES INTO THE WEST BY
18Z TUESDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z.
UNTIL THEN EXPECT PATCHES OF STRATUS/MVFR AND LOW VFR CIGS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ003>005-
011>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1130 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
HAVE EXPIRED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ON SCHEDULE FOR OUR NORTHEAST
AS TEMPERATURES RISE. ALSO HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW FOR THE SAME AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE ON ENOUGH LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE TO
GIVE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
HAVE LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE EXCEPT FOR
THE NORTHEAST...MAINLY SOUTHWEST MN...WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO
EXPIRE AT 11 AM. TEMPERATURES RISING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY. A COUPLE
OF COLD WIND CHILL READINGS IN NORTHWEST IA DUE TO WINDS ABOUT 5
MPH WILL BE ALLEVIATING SHORTLY. NO MAJOR CHANGES
OTHERWISE...THOUGH HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY FASTER ON THE CLOUD INCREASE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
CENTER OF THE ARCTIC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH COLD DENSE AIR LINGERING AND
WINDS INCREASING...HAVE EXTENDED WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE
EAST THROUGH 17Z.
HAVE SOME VERY SPOTTY FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE HRRR IS
NOT DOING A GOOD JOB IN PICKING THIS UP...BUT THE RAP IS SOMEWHAT
BETTER BUT MAY BE AN OVERSTATEMENT ON FOG. HAVE ADDED PATCHY
WORDING FROM NEAR SIOUX FALLS DOWN INTO NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT PATCHY
MAY BE AN OVERSTATEMENT GIVEN THE FLAKY NATURE OF THIS FOG.
OTHERWISE...FOCUS TODAY IS ON WAVE MIGRATING DOWN FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINNESOTA LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS SHOW THE
DYNAMICS SCRAPING OUR AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH...AS WAVE IS RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING AND SNOW SHOULD NOT
LAST IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION MORE THAN A FEW HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
A STRUGGLE TO SHAKE THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EAST.
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH WARMER AIR FOLLOWING
BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR BEHIND THE WAVE LEADING TO
A BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL MUCH WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN. THE GREATEST COOLING WILL OCCUR
IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LONGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST GRAZING THIS AREA.
WEDNESDAY FINALLY USHERS IN SOME MILDER AIR...WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING 20 TO 25 FOR HIGHS ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29...PROGRESSIVELY WARMING TO AROUND 30 AT CHAMBERLAIN.
AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A HINT AT
SOME STRATUS WEST OF I 29 THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
EVAPORATING THE CLOUDS SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THEY
TRY TO PROGRESS EAST. BUT AT ANY RATE CONDITIONS LOOK DRY.
THEN A MILD AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT IT
APPEARS THAT MANY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE A LITTLE COLD FOR
OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...EXCEPT FOR MOS VALUES. THEREFORE BLENDED IN
MOS TO GIVE GREGORY COUNTY MID 40S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 30S GOING
ISOTHERMAL FROM 925MB.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS
THE USUAL MODEL DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC
MODELS. BUT OVERALL IT STILL LOOKS DRY NO MATTER WHAT SOLUTION IS
OUT THERE WITH MILD WEATHER CONTINUING FOR MID JANUARY STANDARDS.
SATURDAY MAY BE RATHER WINDY BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE WITH
DIRECTIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A HON/FSD/SLB LINE...AREAS OF CEILINGS
2-4K FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST THROUGH 14/00Z. LOCAL VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A BKX/OTG LINE. VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING TO P6SM FROM THE NORTHWEST 21Z-14/06Z...WHILE AREAS OF
CEILINGS 2-4K FEET CONTINUE THROUGH 14/18Z. SOUTHWEST OF A
HON/FSD/SLB LINE...A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS 2-4K OTRW VFR.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1025 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME WEAK ENERGY PASSING THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A LEE TROF ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND AROUND NEWCASTLE.
FOR THIS MORNING...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS NAM AND RAPID
REFRESH MODEL INDICATES A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE. DON/T EXPECT FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE LOW/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO THE BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS ADDED SOME SLIGHT POPS
FOR THIS AREA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
WESTERLY FLOW.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL SEE CLOUDS DISSIPATING EVEN MORE...BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST HRRR AND NAM DOES INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND WINNER LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL LEAVE
IT OUT FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-EXAMINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL TO READINGS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND ROCKIES. WITH
LIMITED SKY COVER AND WESTERLY WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TEMPS WARM INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COOL FRONT EARLY SATURDAY WILL REDUCE HIGHS
A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL STILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE. A
COUPLE OF DRY SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1103 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
HAVE EXPIRED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ON SCHEDULE FOR OUR NORTHEAST
AS TEMPERATURES RISE. ALSO HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW FOR THE SAME AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE ON ENOUGH LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE TO
GIVE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
HAVE LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE EXCEPT FOR
THE NORTHEAST...MAINLY SOUTHWEST MN...WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO
EXPIRE AT 11 AM. TEMPERATURES RISING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY. A COUPLE
OF COLD WIND CHILL READINGS IN NORTHWEST IA DUE TO WINDS ABOUT 5
MPH WILL BE ALLEVIATING SHORTLY. NO MAJOR CHANGES
OTHERWISE...THOUGH HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY FASTER ON THE CLOUD INCREASE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
CENTER OF THE ARCTIC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH COLD DENSE AIR LINGERING AND
WINDS INCREASING...HAVE EXTENDED WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE
EAST THROUGH 17Z.
HAVE SOME VERY SPOTTY FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE HRRR IS
NOT DOING A GOOD JOB IN PICKING THIS UP...BUT THE RAP IS SOMEWHAT
BETTER BUT MAY BE AN OVERSTATEMENT ON FOG. HAVE ADDED PATCHY
WORDING FROM NEAR SIOUX FALLS DOWN INTO NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT PATCHY
MAY BE AN OVERSTATEMENT GIVEN THE FLAKY NATURE OF THIS FOG.
OTHERWISE...FOCUS TODAY IS ON WAVE MIGRATING DOWN FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINNESOTA LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS SHOW THE
DYNAMICS SCRAPING OUR AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH...AS WAVE IS RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING AND SNOW SHOULD NOT
LAST IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION MORE THAN A FEW HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
A STRUGGLE TO SHAKE THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EAST.
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH WARMER AIR FOLLOWING
BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR BEHIND THE WAVE LEADING TO
A BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL MUCH WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN. THE GREATEST COOLING WILL OCCUR
IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LONGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST GRAZING THIS AREA.
WEDNESDAY FINALLY USHERS IN SOME MILDER AIR...WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING 20 TO 25 FOR HIGHS ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29...PROGRESSIVELY WARMING TO AROUND 30 AT CHAMBERLAIN.
AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A HINT AT
SOME STRATUS WEST OF I 29 THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
EVAPORATING THE CLOUDS SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THEY
TRY TO PROGRESS EAST. BUT AT ANY RATE CONDITIONS LOOK DRY.
THEN A MILD AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT IT
APPEARS THAT MANY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE A LITTLE COLD FOR
OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...EXCEPT FOR MOS VALUES. THEREFORE BLENDED IN
MOS TO GIVE GREGORY COUNTY MID 40S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 30S GOING
ISOTHERMAL FROM 925MB.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS
THE USUAL MODEL DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC
MODELS. BUT OVERALL IT STILL LOOKS DRY NO MATTER WHAT SOLUTION IS
OUT THERE WITH MILD WEATHER CONTINUING FOR MID JANUARY STANDARDS.
SATURDAY MAY BE RATHER WINDY BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE WITH
DIRECTIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z. THEREAFTER...WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH POTENTIALLY PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES ALONG
HIGHWAY 14 INCLUDING KHON...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF. AS
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
933 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
HAVE LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE EXCEPT FOR
THE NORTHEAST...MAINLY SOUTHWEST MN...WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO
EXPIRE AT 11 AM. TEMPERATURES RISING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY. A COUPLE
OF COLD WIND CHILL READINGS IN NORTHWEST IA DUE TO WINDS ABOUT 5
MPH WILL BE ALLEVIATING SHORTLY. NO MAJOR CHANGES
OTHERWISE...THOUGH HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY FASTER ON THE CLOUD INCREASE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
CENTER OF THE ARCTIC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH COLD DENSE AIR LINGERING AND
WINDS INCREASING...HAVE EXTENDED WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE
EAST THROUGH 17Z.
HAVE SOME VERY SPOTTY FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE HRRR IS
NOT DOING A GOOD JOB IN PICKING THIS UP...BUT THE RAP IS SOMEWHAT
BETTER BUT MAY BE AN OVERSTATEMENT ON FOG. HAVE ADDED PATCHY
WORDING FROM NEAR SIOUX FALLS DOWN INTO NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT PATCHY
MAY BE AN OVERSTATEMENT GIVEN THE FLAKY NATURE OF THIS FOG.
OTHERWISE...FOCUS TODAY IS ON WAVE MIGRATING DOWN FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINNESOTA LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS SHOW THE
DYNAMICS SCRAPING OUR AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH...AS WAVE IS RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING AND SNOW SHOULD NOT
LAST IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION MORE THAN A FEW HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
A STRUGGLE TO SHAKE THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EAST.
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH WARMER AIR FOLLOWING
BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR BEHIND THE WAVE LEADING TO
A BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL MUCH WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN. THE GREATEST COOLING WILL OCCUR
IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LONGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST GRAZING THIS AREA.
WEDNESDAY FINALLY USHERS IN SOME MILDER AIR...WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING 20 TO 25 FOR HIGHS ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29...PROGRESSIVELY WARMING TO AROUND 30 AT CHAMBERLAIN.
AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A HINT AT
SOME STRATUS WEST OF I 29 THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
EVAPORATING THE CLOUDS SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THEY
TRY TO PROGRESS EAST. BUT AT ANY RATE CONDITIONS LOOK DRY.
THEN A MILD AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT IT
APPEARS THAT MANY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE A LITTLE COLD FOR
OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...EXCEPT FOR MOS VALUES. THEREFORE BLENDED IN
MOS TO GIVE GREGORY COUNTY MID 40S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 30S GOING
ISOTHERMAL FROM 925MB.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS
THE USUAL MODEL DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC
MODELS. BUT OVERALL IT STILL LOOKS DRY NO MATTER WHAT SOLUTION IS
OUT THERE WITH MILD WEATHER CONTINUING FOR MID JANUARY STANDARDS.
SATURDAY MAY BE RATHER WINDY BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE WITH
DIRECTIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z. THEREAFTER...WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH POTENTIALLY PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES ALONG
HIGHWAY 14 INCLUDING KHON...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF. AS
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ040.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ003.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
537 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
CENTER OF THE ARCTIC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH COLD DENSE AIR LINGERING AND
WINDS INCREASING...HAVE EXTENDED WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE
EAST THROUGH 17Z.
HAVE SOME VERY SPOTTY FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE HRRR IS
NOT DOING A GOOD JOB IN PICKING THIS UP...BUT THE RAP IS SOMEWHAT
BETTER BUT MAY BE AN OVERSTATEMENT ON FOG. HAVE ADDED PATCHY
WORDING FROM NEAR SIOUX FALLS DOWN INTO NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT PATCHY
MAY BE AN OVERSTATEMENT GIVEN THE FLAKY NATURE OF THIS FOG.
OTHERWISE...FOCUS TODAY IS ON WAVE MIGRATING DOWN FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINNESOTA LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS SHOW THE
DYNAMICS SCRAPING OUR AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH...AS WAVE IS RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING AND SNOW SHOULD NOT
LAST IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION MORE THAN A FEW HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
A STRUGGLE TO SHAKE THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EAST.
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH WARMER AIR FOLLOWING
BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR BEHIND THE WAVE LEADING TO
A BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL MUCH WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN. THE GREATEST COOLING WILL OCCUR
IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LONGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST GRAZING THIS AREA.
WEDNESDAY FINALLY USHERS IN SOME MILDER AIR...WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING 20 TO 25 FOR HIGHS ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29...PROGRESSIVELY WARMING TO AROUND 30 AT CHAMBERLAIN.
AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A HINT AT
SOME STRATUS WEST OF I 29 THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
EVAPORATING THE CLOUDS SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THEY
TRY TO PROGRESS EAST. BUT AT ANY RATE CONDITIONS LOOK DRY.
THEN A MILD AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT IT
APPEARS THAT MANY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE A LITTLE COLD FOR
OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...EXCEPT FOR MOS VALUES. THEREFORE BLENDED IN
MOS TO GIVE GREGORY COUNTY MID 40S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 30S GOING
ISOTHERMAL FROM 925MB.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS
THE USUAL MODEL DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC
MODELS. BUT OVERALL IT STILL LOOKS DRY NO MATTER WHAT SOLUTION IS
OUT THERE WITH MILD WEATHER CONTINUING FOR MID JANUARY STANDARDS.
SATURDAY MAY BE RATHER WINDY BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE WITH
DIRECTIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z. THEREAFTER...WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH POTENTIALLY PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES ALONG
HIGHWAY 14 INCLUDING KHON...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF. AS
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ038-039-
053>056-059>062-065>071.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ040.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ098.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ001-002.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ003.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
411 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME WEAK ENERGY PASSING THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A LEE TROF ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND AROUND NEWCASTLE.
FOR THIS MORNING...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS NAM AND RAPID
REFRESH MODEL INDICATES A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE. DON/T EXPECT FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE LOW/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO THE BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS ADDED SOME SLIGHT POPS
FOR THIS AREA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
WESTERLY FLOW.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL SEE CLOUDS DISSIPATING EVEN MORE...BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST HRRR AND NAM DOES INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND WINNER LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL LEAVE
IT OUT FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-EXAMINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL TO READINGS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND ROCKIES. WITH
LIMITED SKY COVER AND WESTERLY WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TEMPS WARM INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COOL FRONT EARLY SATURDAY WILL REDUCE HIGHS
A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL STILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE. A
COUPLE OF DRY SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ANY
PATCHY FOG OR FLURRIES THAT MAY DEVELOP...BUT FOR THE MOST PART VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MID CLOUDS WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD
TODAY...AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
304 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME WEAK ENERGY PASSING THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A LEE TROF ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND AROUND NEWCASTLE.
FOR THIS MORNING...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS NAM AND RAPID
REFRESH MODEL INDICATES A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE. DON/T EXPECT FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE LOW/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO THE BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS ADDED SOME SLIGHT POPS
FOR THIS AREA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
WESTERLY FLOW.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL SEE CLOUDS DISSIPATING EVEN MORE...BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST HRRR AND NAM DOES INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND WINNER LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL LEAVE
IT OUT FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-EXAMINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL TO READINGS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND ROCKIES. WITH
LIMITED SKY COVER AND WESTERLY WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TEMPS WARM INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COOL FRONT EARLY SATURDAY WILL REDUCE HIGHS
A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL STILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE. A
COUPLE OF DRY SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ANY PATCHY FOG
THAT MAY DEVELOP...BUT FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. MID CLOUDS WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD TODAY...AND SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
326 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
CENTER OF THE ARCTIC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH COLD DENSE AIR LINGERING AND
WINDS INCREASING...HAVE EXTENDED WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE
EAST THROUGH 17Z.
HAVE SOME VERY SPOTTY FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE HRRR IS
NOT DOING A GOOD JOB IN PICKING THIS UP...BUT THE RAP IS SOMEWHAT
BETTER BUT MAY BE AN OVERSTATEMENT ON FOG. HAVE ADDED PATCHY
WORDING FROM NEAR SIOUX FALLS DOWN INTO NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT PATCHY
MAY BE AN OVERSTATEMENT GIVEN THE FLAKY NATURE OF THIS FOG.
OTHERWISE...FOCUS TODAY IS ON WAVE MIGRATING DOWN FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINNESOTA LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS SHOW THE
DYNAMICS SCRAPING OUR AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH...AS WAVE IS RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING AND SNOW SHOULD NOT
LAST IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION MORE THAN A FEW HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
A STRUGGLE TO SHAKE THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EAST.
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH WARMER AIR FOLLOWING
BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR BEHIND THE WAVE LEADING TO
A BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL MUCH WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN. THE GREATEST COOLING WILL OCCUR
IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LONGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST GRAZING THIS AREA.
WEDNESDAY FINALLY USHERS IN SOME MILDER AIR...WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING 20 TO 25 FOR HIGHS ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29...PROGRESSIVELY WARMING TO AROUND 30 AT CHAMBERLAIN.
AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A HINT AT
SOME STRATUS WEST OF I 29 THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
EVAPORATING THE CLOUDS SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THEY
TRY TO PROGRESS EAST. BUT AT ANY RATE CONDITIONS LOOK DRY.
THEN A MILD AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT IT
APPEARS THAT MANY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE A LITTLE COLD FOR
OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...EXCEPT FOR MOS VALUES. THEREFORE BLENDED IN
MOS TO GIVE GREGORY COUNTY MID 40S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 30S GOING
ISOTHERMAL FROM 925MB.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS
THE USUAL MODEL DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC
MODELS. BUT OVERALL IT STILL LOOKS DRY NO MATTER WHAT SOLUTION IS
OUT THERE WITH MILD WEATHER CONTINUING FOR MID JANUARY STANDARDS.
SATURDAY MAY BE RATHER WINDY BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE WITH
DIRECTIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST MON JAN 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ038-039-
053>056-059>062-065>071.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ040.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ098.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ001-002.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ003.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
946 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE
OR TWO ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY. SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH MODEL
DATA SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS (COLD AIR ADVECTION)
WILL REMAIN INTACT TODAY. WE HAVE ALSO REMOVED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A STOUT UPPER JET IS NOTED ON THE
12Z DRT SOUNDING AND WATER VAPOR LOOP. HOWEVER...THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY TODAY. HOURLY WINDS...DEW POINTS
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN UPDATED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015/
AVIATION...
UPPER SHORT WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION STILL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE AND MORE ENERGY TO THE
WEST...CLEAR OUT WILL NOT HAPPEN. MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT ARE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 1-2KFT...WITH PATCHY IFR. FARTHER
OUT INTO THE HILL COUNTRY THE IFR IS MORE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME
LOWER VISBYS. LOOK FOR THE DECKS TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY IN MVFR
MOST IF NOT ALL THROUGHOUT TODAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT THIS
EVENING AS GFS AND EVEN THE HRRR ARE TRYING TO BRING IN SOME VFR
OVER THE SOUTH. DIDNT BUY INTO THIS JUST YET WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CROSS SECTIONS THAT SHOW PLENTY OF OVERRUNNING.
AUS HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN IFR/MVFR THIS MORNING...WILL PUT
THEM IN MVFR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND KEEP ALL THE TAF SITES IN MVFR
THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. COULD GET SOME IFR EARLY WED MORNING BUT
KEPT HEIGHTS AROUND 1KFT. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTH
IN THE 5-10KT RANGE ALTHOUGH DRT WILL START TO SWITCH AROUND TO
THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY
AND EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON
RADAR ACROSS NORTHERN VAL VERDE COUNTY AND SJT SOUTHERN CWA...WITH
A FEW AUTOMATED SITES REPORTING PRECIP. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
32-34 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY...AND FOR THE MOST
PART THIS WILL BE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND
EAST...BAND OF MODERATE RAIN OCCURRING EAST OF I-35...POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY NOSE OF LFQ OF 130KT JET STREAK. ALL ACTIVITY ACROSS
EASTERN CWA AND HILL COUNTRY SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY NOON.
OTHERWISE COLD AND CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE JUST ABOVE SURFACE WILL STRENGTHEN LATE
TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. PATCHY/AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. COLD ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN ONLY IN THE MID 40S.
JR
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PROMOTING CLEARING OVER THE AREA.
HIGHS INTO THE 50S ON THURSDAY AND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GFS IS BULLISH COMPARED TO ECMWF WITH
PRECIP CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW WILL ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 43 36 44 36 55 / 10 10 20 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 42 36 44 34 54 / 10 10 20 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 43 38 45 36 55 / 10 10 20 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 39 33 42 32 54 / 10 10 20 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 45 40 49 38 57 / - - 10 - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 39 34 43 33 53 / 10 10 20 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 46 38 47 36 58 / - 10 20 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 43 37 44 36 54 / 10 10 20 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 45 38 45 37 54 / 20 10 20 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 45 38 46 38 57 / 10 10 20 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 45 40 46 38 57 / 10 10 20 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
545 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.AVIATION...
UPPER SHORT WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION STILL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE AND MORE ENERGY TO THE
WEST...CLEAR OUT WILL NOT HAPPEN. MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT ARE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 1-2KFT...WITH PATCHY IFR. FARTHER
OUT INTO THE HILL COUNTRY THE IFR IS MORE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME
LOWER VISBYS. LOOK FOR THE DECKS TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY IN MVFR
MOST IF NOT ALL THROUGHOUT TODAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT THIS
EVENING AS GFS AND EVEN THE HRRR ARE TRYING TO BRING IN SOME VFR
OVER THE SOUTH. DIDNT BUY INTO THIS JUST YET WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CROSS SECTIONS THAT SHOW PLENTY OF OVERRUNNING.
AUS HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN IFR/MVFR THIS MORNING...WILL PUT
THEM IN MVFR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND KEEP ALL THE TAF SITES IN MVFR
THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. COULD GET SOME IFR EARLY WED MORNING BUT
KEPT HEIGHTS AROUND 1KFT. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTH
IN THE 5-10KT RANGE ALTHOUGH DRT WILL START TO SWITCH AROUND TO
THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY
AND EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON
RADAR ACROSS NORTHERN VAL VERDE COUNTY AND SJT SOUTHERN CWA...WITH
A FEW AUTOMATED SITES REPORTING PRECIP. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
32-34 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY...AND FOR THE MOST
PART THIS WILL BE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND
EAST...BAND OF MODERATE RAIN OCCURRING EAST OF I-35...POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY NOSE OF LFQ OF 130KT JET STREAK. ALL ACTIVITY ACROSS
EASTERN CWA AND HILL COUNTRY SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY NOON.
OTHERWISE COLD AND CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE JUST ABOVE SURFACE WILL STRENGTHEN LATE
TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. PATCHY/AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. COLD ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN ONLY IN THE MID 40S.
JR
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PROMOTING CLEARING OVER THE AREA.
HIGHS INTO THE 50S ON THURSDAY AND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GFS IS BULLISH COMPARED TO ECMWF WITH
PRECIP CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW WILL ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 45 36 44 36 55 / 10 10 20 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 45 36 44 34 54 / 10 10 20 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 46 38 45 36 55 / 10 10 20 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 43 33 42 32 54 / 10 10 20 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 47 40 49 38 57 / - - 10 - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 42 34 43 33 53 / 10 10 20 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 47 38 47 36 58 / - 10 20 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 46 37 44 36 54 / 10 10 20 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 47 38 45 37 54 / 20 10 20 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 47 38 46 38 57 / 10 10 20 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 47 40 46 38 57 / 10 10 20 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1239 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING
WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EST TUESDAY...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD
FRONT HAVING PUSHED SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA... HAVING
CLEARED ALL BUT THE SW SECTIONS. THE WEDGE REGIME DEVELOPMENT IS
WELL UNDERWAY WITH SURFACE WINDS EAST OF THE SLOPES OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST... AND WITH SATELLITE AND 12Z SOUNDINGS CONFIRMING
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOIST AIR... WE`RE SEEING WEAK TERRAIN-UPGLIDE
RADAR RETURNS ON THE EAST SLOPES. THE INITIAL SURGE OF DRIER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA IS ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION OF A FEW DEGREES... ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SUPPORT VERY LIGHT PATCHY PRECIP
PERSISTING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE
IN THE SW AND LESS IN THE NE WHERE THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT AMOUNTS. BASED UPON THE SURFACE WET BULB
OBSERVATIONS... EXPECT THIS TO BE MOSTLY DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS (DUE TO THE DRYING ALOFT) FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT SLEET IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH LOW
POPS SUGGESTING LOW COVERAGE. STILL EXPECT ONLY MINOR IMPACTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE PRECIP... AND
WILL MAINTAIN THIS MENTION IN THE HWO. TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIP BACK THROUGH THE LOW 30S
LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
WILL START TONIGHT OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY WEDGED AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW
ENGLAND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW VERY CHILLY AIR ACROSS OUR AREA...PUSHING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING AS A SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MOISTURE RADIATING INLAND FROM THE LOW WILL INTERACT WITH WITH THE
COLD AIR WEDGE TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA. THE DEPTH OF
THE COLD AIR WEDGE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING IS SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET THICK...SUPPORTING SLEET AND POSSIBLY SNOW FOR OUR
AREA...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CASWELL AND POSSIBLY
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE LAYER OF SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE SURFACE IS NOT AS THICK. BEST SUPPORT WILL
PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...MEANING THAT WE WILL
RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MOST PART. SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH...WITH PERHAPS A
GLAZING OF ICE. CONSIDERING THIS WILL BE THE FIRST WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR SPOTS IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TONIGHT THROUGH NOON ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.
WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A
DRYING TREND TO TAKE PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN.
CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE SLOW TO ERODE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR
PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...
WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...WILL
SEE A CLEARING TREND TAKE PLACE...WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO THE MID 40S EAST. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALL WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THEN RETROGRADES WEST. IN TIME...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW...AND CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN FRIDAY BY AN AVERAGE OF THREE TO SIX DEGREES WITH LOWER
50S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE TIMING AND
IMPACT...BUT ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEMS MAY IMPACT
THE REGION. LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THAT SLIGHT CHANCE EXPANDS TO MOST OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND POTENTIALLY SOME OF THE NEIGHBORING
COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN THOSE OF SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ON MONDAY WITH GREATER
PROBABILITY FOR CLOUD COVER...AND A POTENTIAL SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...COMPARABLE TO THOSE
OF SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1238 PM EST TUESDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST CONTINUING STRATUS/STRATO-CU AT
MOST LOCATIONS. WEDGE SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME DRIER AIR MAY NOSE SOUTH
INTO KLYH...BUT MODELS LOOKED OVERDONE ON THIS. LIGHT WINTERY MIX
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY -DZ OR -FZDZ EXPECTED
AT KBLF/KROA/KBCB.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINTRY MIX AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE AND RIME
ICING. THIS MOST LIKELY AROUND KDAN WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER
AND CLOSER TO THE MAIN SWATH OF PRECIP PASSING TO THE SE. ELSW
SOME POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF -FZDZ/PL WITH MORE FREEZING TYPE
PRECIP AT KBLF PER SHALLOW MOISTURE...AND SLEET/SNOW ELSW BUT
LIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH BELOW HIGH END MVFR AT WORSE OUTSIDE
OF FOG.
ANY PRECIP SHOULD TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
WORKS EAST. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SITES ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO RECOVER TO LATE DAY VFR CIGS OTRW MAINLY MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WEDNESDAY...A PUSH OF MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH VFR
LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ032-043-044-058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/GIH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS/NF
AVIATION...JH/PM/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
940 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING
WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EST TUESDAY...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD
FRONT HAVING PUSHED SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA... HAVING
CLEARED ALL BUT THE SW SECTIONS. THE WEDGE REGIME DEVELOPMENT IS
WELL UNDERWAY WITH SURFACE WINDS EAST OF THE SLOPES OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST... AND WITH SATELLITE AND 12Z SOUNDINGS CONFIRMING
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOIST AIR... WE`RE SEEING WEAK TERRAIN-UPGLIDE
RADAR RETURNS ON THE EAST SLOPES. THE INITIAL SURGE OF DRIER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA IS ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION OF A FEW DEGREES... ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SUPPORT VERY LIGHT PATCHY PRECIP
PERSISTING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE
IN THE SW AND LESS IN THE NE WHERE THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT AMOUNTS. BASED UPON THE SURFACE WET BULB
OBSERVATIONS... EXPECT THIS TO BE MOSTLY DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS (DUE TO THE DRYING ALOFT) FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT SLEET IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH LOW
POPS SUGGESTING LOW COVERAGE. STILL EXPECT ONLY MINOR IMPACTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE PRECIP... AND
WILL MAINTAIN THIS MENTION IN THE HWO. TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIP BACK THROUGH THE LOW 30S
LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
WILL START TONIGHT OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY WEDGED AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW
ENGLAND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW VERY CHILLY AIR ACROSS OUR AREA...PUSHING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING AS A SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MOISTURE RADIATING INLAND FROM THE LOW WILL INTERACT WITH WITH THE
COLD AIR WEDGE TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA. THE DEPTH OF
THE COLD AIR WEDGE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING IS SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET THICK...SUPPORTING SLEET AND POSSIBLY SNOW FOR OUR
AREA...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CASWELL AND POSSIBLY
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE LAYER OF SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE SURFACE IS NOT AS THICK. BEST SUPPORT WILL
PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...MEANING THAT WE WILL
RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MOST PART. SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH...WITH PERHAPS A
GLAZING OF ICE. CONSIDERING THIS WILL BE THE FIRST WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR SPOTS IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TONIGHT THROUGH NOON ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.
WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A
DRYING TREND TO TAKE PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN.
CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE SLOW TO ERODE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR
PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...
WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...WILL
SEE A CLEARING TREND TAKE PLACE...WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO THE MID 40S EAST. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALL WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THEN RETROGRADES WEST. IN TIME...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW...AND CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN FRIDAY BY AN AVERAGE OF THREE TO SIX DEGREES WITH LOWER
50S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE TIMING AND
IMPACT...BUT ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEMS MAY IMPACT
THE REGION. LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THAT SLIGHT CHANCE EXPANDS TO MOST OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND POTENTIALLY SOME OF THE NEIGHBORING
COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN THOSE OF SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ON MONDAY WITH GREATER
PROBABILITY FOR CLOUD COVER...AND A POTENTIAL SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...COMPARABLE TO THOSE
OF SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM EST TUESDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING MORE TO A GUSTY NORTH TO NE TRAJECTORY AND IN TURN
AIDING LOWER STRATUS/STRATO-CU AT MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SETUP WILL
GRADUALLY LEAD TO A STRONGER WEDGE SCENARIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH WITH THE FLOW BECOMING PREDOMINATE
NE TO EAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN MOST
LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY EXCLUDING KLYH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN DRIER AIR MAY NOSE IN ENOUGH FROM THE NE TO CAUSE CIGS TO
LIFT A BIT. OTRW PRECIP REMAINS IFFY TODAY GIVEN MOSTLY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LACK OF FOCUS OTHER THAN FOR WEAK UPSLOPE LATE IN THE
DAY OVER THE SW. LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY OF SPORADIC
COVERAGE OF ABOUT ALL PTYPES TODAY BUT APPEARS OVERDONE GIVEN
CURRENT DRYING TRENDS. THUS LEAVING OUT ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WEST WHERE COULD SEE PATCHY -DZ OR
-FZDZ BREAK OUT TOWARD SUNSET AT KBLF/KROA/KBCB.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX
AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE AND RIME ICING. THIS
MOST LIKELY AROUND KDAN WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AND CLOSER
TO THE MAIN SWATH OF PRECIP PASSING TO THE SE. ELSW SOME POTENTIAL
FOR AREAS OF -FZDZ/PL WITH MORE FREEZING TYPE PRECIP AT KBLF PER
SHALLOW MOISTURE...AND SLEET/SNOW ELSW BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MUCH BELOW HIGH END MVFR AT WORSE OUTSIDE OF FOG.
ANY PRECIP SHOULD TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
WORKS EAST. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SITES ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO RECOVER TO LATE DAY VFR CIGS OTRW MAINLY MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WEDNESDAY...A PUSH OF MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH VFR
LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ032-043-044-058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/GIH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS/NF
AVIATION...JH/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
500 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
AT 3 AM...A 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER LA CROSSE.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WERE QUITE VARIABLE. AS USUAL NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN WAS THE COLDEST WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM -15 TO -25. MEANWHILE ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM -5 TO -15. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS TENDED TO BE ON THE RIDGE
TOPS AND THE RIVER VALLEYS WERE THE COLDEST. FOR EXAMPLE...HERE AT
THE OFFICE WE ARE -3 AND IT IS -8 AT THE AIRPORT AND -12 AT
HOLMEN. IN SOME LOCATIONS...THIS MORNING IS THE COLDEST OF THE
WINTER. FOR EXAMPLE...AUSTIN IS -15 SURPASSING -13 ON JANUARY
5TH...MEDFORD IS -19 EQUALLY -19 ON JANUARY 5TH...AND FORT MCCOY
IS -20 SURPASSING -19 ON JANUARY 6TH.
FOR TODAY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. BOTH THE GFS AND
RAP...INDICATE THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE WINDS
FLOWING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN BECOME UNFAVORABLE TO KEEP THEM
DEVELOPING AND THEY RUN INTO VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION.
MEANWHILE THE NAM MOVES THEM SOUTH AND AS THE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH...THEY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS AND RAP MAKE A
BIT MORE SENSE.
FOR TONIGHT...THE 13.00Z MODELS NORTH AMERICAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT 280 TO 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA...TO QUICKLY MOISTEN UP THE AIR MASS. THE
ECMWF HAS ALSO COME AROUND TO THIS SOLUTION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WITH UP TO 0.03 INCHES OF
QPF BEING PRODUCED. WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 13-15 TO
1...EXPECT SNOW TOTAL UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
ON WEDNESDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE...IF
ANY...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...
PACIFIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT
WARMER TEMPERATURES DESPITE LESS SUNSHINE THAN TODAY.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEST AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE STILL APPEARS TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SHOWS ENOUGH
SATURATION TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY.
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. 900 TO 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB IN THE 5 TO 7C RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL LIKELY CAP SOME OF THE COLDER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. HOWEVER
THE EML WILL ALSO PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID
30S. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SINCE JANUARY 4TH.
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A
CANADIAN FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE COLDEST AIR
MASS WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS CONTINUE
TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCE JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECTING SOME -SN WITH THE
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH NOT ANTICIPATING VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR KRST/KLSE
AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A FURTHER LOWERING OF THE CLOUD DECK
WITH THE -SN...BUT UNSURE WHETHER MVFR CIGS WILL BE REALIZED. ITS
POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP VFR FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
341 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
AT 3 AM...A 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER LA CROSSE.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WERE QUITE VARIABLE. AS USUAL NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN WAS THE COLDEST WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM -15 TO -25. MEANWHILE ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM -5 TO -15. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS TENDED TO BE ON THE RIDGE
TOPS AND THE RIVER VALLEYS WERE THE COLDEST. FOR EXAMPLE...HERE AT
THE OFFICE WE ARE -3 AND IT IS -8 AT THE AIRPORT AND -12 AT
HOLMEN. IN SOME LOCATIONS...THIS MORNING IS THE COLDEST OF THE
WINTER. FOR EXAMPLE...AUSTIN IS -15 SURPASSING -13 ON JANUARY
5TH...MEDFORD IS -19 EQUALLY -19 ON JANUARY 5TH...AND FORT MCCOY
IS -20 SURPASSING -19 ON JANUARY 6TH.
FOR TODAY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. BOTH THE GFS AND
RAP...INDICATE THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE WINDS
FLOWING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN BECOME UNFAVORABLE TO KEEP THEM
DEVELOPING AND THEY RUN INTO VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION.
MEANWHILE THE NAM MOVES THEM SOUTH AND AS THE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH...THEY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS AND RAP MAKE A
BIT MORE SENSE.
FOR TONIGHT...THE 13.00Z MODELS NORTH AMERICAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT 280 TO 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA...TO QUICKLY MOISTEN UP THE AIR MASS. THE
ECWMF HAS ALSO COME AROUND TO THIS SOLUTION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WITH UP TO 0.03 INCHES OF
QPF BEING PRODUCED. WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 13-15 TO
1...EXPECT SNOW TOTAL UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015
ON WEDNESDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE...IF
ANY...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...
PACIFIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT
WARMER TEMPERATURES DESPITE LESS SUNSHINE THAN TODAY.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEST AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE STILL APPEARS TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SHOWS ENOUGH
SATURATION TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY.
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. 900 TO 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB IN THE 5 TO 7C RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL LIKELY CAP SOME OF THE COLDER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. HOWEVER
THE EML WILL ALSO PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID
30S. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SINCE JANUARY 4TH.
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A
CANADIAN FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE COLDEST AIR
MASS WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS CONTINUE
TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCE JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON JAN 12 2015
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
KEEP SKIES CLEAR WITH WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT. AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH ON
TUESDAY...WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO BEING OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY EVENING WITH
ANY SNOW POTENTIALLY COMING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
251 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND
LESS LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH WED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER BEGINNING TO SEE SOME RAISING CIGS AS
THE LLVLS ARE STARTING TO DRY. SFC PRESSURES ARE RISING AND A COLD
FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES RIGHT NOW WITH CHEYENNE
GETTING NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. LLVL RH PROGS AND
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER PORTIONS
OF CARBON COUNTY AS WINDS ARE REALLY LIGHT AND RUC SOUNDINGS
SHOULD A GOOD LLVL INVERSION AND SATURATION. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH CLEARING SKIES.
HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE ON WED WITH LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. STARTING TO GET SOME WEAK PRESSURE FALLS TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE HOWEVER THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT REMAINS
BELOW 30 METERS. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME COMPARED TO TODAY (5-10
DEGREES WARMER) HOWEVER THE PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPING AND WARMING
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO
NORTHWEST. MILD WEATHER ENTHUSIASTS WILL ENJOY THURSDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
WARMING AND A MODERATING AIRMASS HELPS HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR
WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EAST OF I-25 AND 30S WEST OF I-25.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKS EVEN MORE TO WEST...INDUCING EVEN MORE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND WITH PROGGED THICKNESSES AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES...WE EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE
40S TO MID 50S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ASSUMING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD
OPACITY...THICKNESS...IS MINIMAL. OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS MAY BE
NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA BASED ON THE PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL
GRADIENTS.
SATURDAY...POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SLIDING ACROSS OUR COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY...USHERING IN WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR HIGH WIND
CRITERIA IN THE FEW HOURS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO A BORA
EVENT.
SUNDAY...THE ROLLER COASTER CONTINUES WITH THE FLOW ALOFT TURNING
WEST NORTHWEST...INDUCING MORE SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND AIDING
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
MONDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO OUR COUNTIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AND PRODUCING A COOLING TREND. WILL SEE SCATTERED
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...DRY
ELSEWHERE.
TUESDAY...WINDY AND COLD WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...AS A
BROAD TROUGH ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES SENDING
REINFORCING COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY AFTER 00Z WITH LOW CLOUDS
BECOMING LESS EXTENSIVE. A WEAK FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO GO
NORTHERLY...HOWEVER WINDSPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER REMAINS ON THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO AROUND NORMAL BY THURSDAY...HOWEVER MINIMUM AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL BE ABOVE 30 PERCENT.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHEYENNE WY
446 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWED A PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW
WITH A RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST...A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND A COUPLE OF
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEW ENGLAND.
REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. LIFT FROM WEAK ISENTROPIC
LEVEL FLOW OVER SHALLOW COLD DOME PRODUCED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...
FOG AND PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW. TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS TO UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE 00Z/06Z NUMERICAL MODELS FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH THE
CONTINUATION OF THE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE SHORT
TERM. SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND NORTHERN MEXICO/FAR
WEST TX DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE SHARP RIDGE
NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL WEAKEN AND BROADEN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC APPROACHES BRITISH COLUMBIA. CONSEQUENTLY...
WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY. THE QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AS A WARM FRONT WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
REGARDS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND PATCHY LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND
YIELDS TO DOWNGLIDE. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE ENDING BY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 20S TO LOWER 30S. UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE...SHOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EAST INTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S...WITH 20S TO THE WEST. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES MILDER ACROSS
THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH 40S PREVALENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND NORTHERN
CARBON COUNTY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
IT WILL BE A MILD AND WINDY START TO THE EXTENDED AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN WY. H7 TEMPS ARE
PROGGED BETWEEN +2 AND +4 DEG C ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTH LARAMIE
RANGE FRI AFTN PER THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE MOISTURE-STARVED NATURE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIP CHANCES AND KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH GOOD COMPRESSIONAL WARMING VIA
FAVORABLE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS...EXPECT SEASONABLE WARMTH TO
CONTINUE FRI. MEX/ECM MOS TEMPS ARE WELL INTO THE 50S OVER THE
PLAINS...WHICH IS REALISTIC FOR AREAS THAT DO NOT HAVE MUCH SNOW
LEFT. WINDS ARE ALSO AN ISSUE FOR FRI AND SAT. THE GFS H85 CAG-CPR
GRADIENT INCREASES TO AROUND 60 METERS LATE THU NIGHT AND REMAINS
HIGH THROUGH SAT...ALONG WITH H75 FLOW IN EXCESS OF 50 KT OVER THE
PRIMARY WIND CORRIDORS OF SOUTHEAST WY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WOULD
SUGGEST STRONG GAP WINDS. BORA EVENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS
ON SAT MORNING WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. STILL EXPECT
THAT HIGH WIND HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS. TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SAT WITH A FEW KEY DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS. THE ECMWF DELAYS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL SAT AFTN AND
KEEPS THE DEEPER COLD TO THE NORTH. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
OFFERS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD PUSH BY 12Z SAT WITH THERMAL
PROFILES REBOUNDING BY AFTN. DECIDED TO KEEP THINGS A LITTLE BELOW
CONSENSUS MOS SINCE THIS GUIDANCE MAY NOT BE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION VERY WELL. A LACK OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE
WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH SUN. MODELS QUITE A BIT
DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY CONCERNING A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE
NEXT WEEK. LATEST RUNS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A MORE
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE...AND NOT REALLY AFFECTING US UNTIL MON.
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR STORM AT THIS TIME...BUT EXPECT
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FOR MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING. KRWL AND KLAR
ARE THE EXCEPTIONS AS FZFG AND LOW CIGS WILL NOT BE EASY TO SCOUR
OUT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KLAR AFTER 14Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 21Z FOR
ALL SITES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT HAS GRIPED MUCH OF THE DISTRICT THE PAST FEW
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT EAST. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 25 TO
35 PERCENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WINDS FOR WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
308 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWED A PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW
WITH A RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST...A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND A COUPLE OF
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEW ENGLAND.
REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. LIFT FROM WEAK ISENTROPIC
LEVEL FLOW OVER SHALLOW COLD DOME PRODUCED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...
FOG AND PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW. TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS TO UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE 00Z/06Z NUMERICAL MODELS FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH THE
CONTINUATION OF THE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE SHORT
TERM. SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND NORTHERN MEXICO/FAR
WEST TX DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE SHARP RIDGE
NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL WEAKEN AND BROADEN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC APPROACHES BRITISH COLUMBIA. CONSEQUENTLY...
WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY. THE QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AS A WARM FRONT WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
REGARDS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND PATCHY LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND
YIELDS TO DOWNGLIDE. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE ENDING BY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 20S TO LOWER 30S. UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE...SHOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EAST INTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S...WITH 20S TO THE WEST. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES MILDER ACROSS
THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH 40S PREVALENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND NORTHERN
CARBON COUNTY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
IT WILL BE A MILD AND WINDY START TO THE EXTENDED AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN WY. H7 TEMPS ARE
PROGGED BETWEEN +2 AND +4 DEG C ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTH LARAMIE
RANGE FRI AFTN PER THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE MOISTURE-STARVED NATURE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIP CHANCES AND KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH GOOD COMPRESSIONAL WARMING VIA
FAVORABLE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS...EXPECT SEASONABLE WARMTH TO
CONTINUE FRI. MEX/ECM MOS TEMPS ARE WELL INTO THE 50S OVER THE
PLAINS...WHICH IS REALISTIC FOR AREAS THAT DO NOT HAVE MUCH SNOW
LEFT. WINDS ARE ALSO AN ISSUE FOR FRI AND SAT. THE GFS H85 CAG-CPR
GRADIENT INCREASES TO AROUND 60 METERS LATE THU NIGHT AND REMAINS
HIGH THROUGH SAT...ALONG WITH H75 FLOW IN EXCESS OF 50 KT OVER THE
PRIMARY WIND CORRIDORS OF SOUTHEAST WY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WOULD
SUGGEST STRONG GAP WINDS. BORA EVENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS
ON SAT MORNING WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. STILL EXPECT
THAT HIGH WIND HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS. TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SAT WITH A FEW KEY DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS. THE ECMWF DELAYS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL SAT AFTN AND
KEEPS THE DEEPER COLD TO THE NORTH. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
OFFERS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD PUSH BY 12Z SAT WITH THERMAL
PROFILES REBOUNDING BY AFTN. DECIDED TO KEEP THINGS A LITTLE BELOW
CONSENSUS MOS SINCE THIS GUIDANCE MAY NOT BE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION VERY WELL. A LACK OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE
WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH SUN. MODELS QUITE A BIT
DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY CONCERNING A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE
NEXT WEEK. LATEST RUNS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A MORE
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE...AND NOT REALLY AFFECTING US UNTIL MON.
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR STORM AT THIS TIME...BUT EXPECT
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 953 PM MST MON JAN 12 2015
LATEST HRRR FORECAST USED AS GUIDANCE ON THE 06Z TAFS. IFR/LIFR TO
CONTINUE FOR KCYS UNTIL THE WINDS SHIFT WEST. THAT DOES NOT LOOK
TO HAPPEN UNTIL MAYBE MID MORNING TUESDAY. KRWL LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD IFR EVENT OUT THERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WELL. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. VFR
EVERYWHERE BY LATE MORNING AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2015
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT HAS GRIPED MUCH OF THE DISTRICT THE PAST FEW
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT EAST. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL PRECLUDE FORE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WINDS FOR WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1008 PM MST MON JAN 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON JAN 12 2015
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MTNS WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL EXIST ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A COLD SFC HIGH SETTLING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SSE ACROSS
UTAH OVERNIGHT AND OVER AZ BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS MAY PASS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES FARTHER EAST. FOG LIKELY
TO HANG ON AROUND THE CHEYENNE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...UNTIL
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO WESTERLY LATE.
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AS THE COLD SFC
AIRMASS RETREATS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
THE MTNS UNTIL A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS LATE IN
THE DAY LEAVING A NNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDS NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OVER NRN PARTS OF
THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO QUITE COOL LEVELS BY WEDS MORNING
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND SNOW COVER OVER MANY AREAS. MILDER AND DRY
WEATHER SETTLING IN FOR WEDS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON JAN 12 2015
A TRANSITION TO A WARMER AND WINDIER PATTERN WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE LLVL CAG-CPR GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ON
THURS TO AROUND 45 METERS AND THEN FURTHER TO AROUND 55 METERS BY
FRI. THUS...WILL BEGIN TO SEE WEST WINDS PICK UP IN THE WIND PRONE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WY ESPECIALLY BY FRI. AT THIS POINT THE
GRADIENTS DO NOT SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD OR HIGH INTENSITY WIND EVENT
OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS. 700MB TEMPS ARE 1-3C WHICH TRANSLATES
INTO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON
SAT. WITH COOLING ALOFT...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND MIXING WILL BE
BETTER SO SAT COULD BE A WINDIER DAY STRETCHING INTO THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS
THE CANADIAN BORDER ON SUNDAY. PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
BE QUITE MINIMAL AS THE BEST PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN LARGELY NORTH OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 953 PM MST MON JAN 12 2015
LATEST HRRR FORECAST USED AS GUIDANCE ON THE 06Z TAFS. IFR/LIFR TO
CONTINUE FOR KCYS UNTIL THE WINDS SHIFT WEST. THAT DOES NOT LOOK
TO HAPPEN UNTIL MAYBE MID MORNING TUESDAY. KRWL LOOING AT A
WIDESPREAD IFR EVENT OUT THERRE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WELL. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. VFR
EVERYWHERE BY LATE MORNING AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST MON JAN 12 2015
SEE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FACTORS MOSTLY
NON-CRITICAL. GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP AROUND THE SE WY MTNS
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
100 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 PM WEDNESDAY...
STILL SEEING AREAS OF (FREEZING) DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA WHERE RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL ABOUT
4-5K FT DEEP (NO 00Z/15TH KMHX RAOB). REGIONAL RAOBS SHOW
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION AT 925MB...WHERE DRYING HAS
CAUSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS TO SCATTER OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
HERE...TEMPS ARE DROPPING MORE QUICKLY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG APPEARS TO BE GREATEST. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...MORE TOWARD 08-09Z AND MAINLY WEST OF
US 1. THE DRIZZLE IN THE EAST WILL COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE STRATUS THINS A BIT...AND TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF AN GLAZING OF ICE
THIS EVENING...AND NONE HERE AT THE NWS...MANY SECONDARY ROADS ARE
STILL WET ACCORDING TO LAW ENFORCEMENT. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE THROUGH MID MORNING...ROUGHLY
TO PERSON COUNTY TO CUMBERLAND COUNTY AND EAST. HOWEVER...IF
WIDESPREAD FOG DOES DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THERE MAY
BE SOME ISOLATED IMPACTS FROM FREEZING FOG BY THE MORNING COMMUTE.
WILL MONITOR THIS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US
THURSDAY NIGHT. BETTER GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL PASS MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A BRIEF GLANCING SHOT OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND LIFT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
(THU 21Z TO 06Z FRIDAY)COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER IN PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WITH
LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS AS FCST
SOUNDINGS HOLD ON TO CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NE TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 SOUTH. SKIES WILL
ABRUPTLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS 30
TO 35...COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY WILL BEGIN WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITING THE AREA...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDING
EAST TOWARDS THE REGION... WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALSO BE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST UNTIL
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 50 DEGREES
NORTH TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTH...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF DEGREES OF
WARMTH BY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE NEARLY
OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL MODERATE SOME...WITH LOW/MID 30S EXPECTED.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE THROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN PROGGED TO QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEPER THROUGH AND THEREFORE RESULTS
IN A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS
STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP OVER OUR AREA (AS THE GFS KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP OVER FAR EASTERN NC/OFFSHORE). FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...
BEFORE DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM THURSDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: LIFR CEILINGS AND FOG WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNRISE...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR BY NOON AND VFR THROUGH
SUNSET THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (00-06Z FRI) AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FRIDAY MORNING (12Z FRI) AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...
RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1159 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015
LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF STRATUS
ALONG A 925MB-850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA. THE RAP13 AND
HRRR 925MB RH/CIG FORECAST EXPAND THIS STRATUS SOUTHEAST TO
NEAR/ALONG A MINOT TO JAMESTOWN LINE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS HANDLED WELL.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
STRENGTHENS/TIGHTENS UP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH IT. LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS WILL INDUCE WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED/BELOW FREEZING LAYER POSSIBLY CONDUCIVE TO SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FROM
MINOT TO JAMESTOWN. WILL LOOK MORE INTO THIS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERNIGHT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE 01-02 UTC
RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE THE TREND OF STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA OVERTAKING NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ALL OBSERVATIONS WITH
PRECIPITATION AS OF 03 UTC UNDER THIS DECK ARE REPORTING SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE RAP AND 00 UTC NAM SOUNDINGS AT MINOT SUGGEST FOR
THURSDAY THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LOW
LEVEL SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C AND FEW ICE CRYSTALS ENTERING
THE LAYER FROM ABOVE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL FORGO MENTION FOR
NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS EVALUATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE...OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 2330 UTC. A MILD OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA
THIS EVENING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015
PRECIPITATION ALOFT IS HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING THE GROUND INITIALLY DUE TO A MODERATELY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER. EVENTUALLY THE SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS TAKES OVER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SATURATED UNDER THAT AREA OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW AND ICE PELLETS CONTINUED TO FALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO GRIP THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH UPPER 20S ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO THIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THEY DO SOLAR
INSULATION WILL FURTHER AID IN THE RISE OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH MODERATE WEST WINDS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL OFF TOO
MUCH...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S LIKELY.
THE 12 UTC NAM AND SREF ARE HINTING AT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
AND POTENTIALLY FOG LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY.
PATCHY FOG MAY NEED TO BE ADDED DURING LATER SHIFTS IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. SATURDAY
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE
(12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/SREF) SHOW A LITTLE MORE QPF THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE GFS MUCH
MORE BULLISH AND THE ECMWF ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY
AND CONSISTENT ARE THE HIGH WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIDESPREAD 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WITH TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW NEARLY EVERY DAY OR
EVERY OTHER DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015
AN AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN AND SAG SOUTH NEAR/ALONG A LINE FROM THE KMOT TERMINAL
TO KJMS NEXT 24HR. THIS STRATUS ALSO REPRESENTS A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT AT KMOT AND KJMS.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FARTHER WEST AT
KISN/KDIK/KBIS NEXT 24HR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015
WE`VE GOT A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF
CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. THIS SETUP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH MINNESOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY. THE BAND OF
CLOUDS ALREADY MENTION WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CLOUD
COVER TO FILL IN ANY HOLES IN OUR EASTERN AND NORTHERN CWA. IN OUR
SOUTHWEST...SKY COVER WILL BE MORE QUESTIONABLE...SO WENT AHEAD WITH
INSERTING FOG INTO THE FORECAST THERE FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. UNDER THE MAIN STRATUS DECK...COULD FORESEE SQUEEZING OUT SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE PERIPHERY AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE BUMPED UP SOME AS CONFIDENCE
IN CLOUDY SKIES HAS INCREASED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. FOR
FRIDAY...STILL EXPECTING CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...WITH INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...AS OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FINALLY BEGINS MOVING EAST BACK TOWARDS US AS A WARM FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE ARE A COUPLE SYSTEMS PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA TO WATCH ON SATURDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE SHOULD HAVE
RELATIVELY LITTLE IMPACT WITH THE BULK OF THE QPF REMAINING NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE WARM-UP AND...P-TYPE IS A QUESTION
ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS EVENTUALLY
AFFECTING ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
THE ONLY REASONABLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE COMING DAYS
OCCURS ON SATURDAY WITH A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING
THE DAKOTAS BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AND THERE IS ALSO A LEADING SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSVERSE THE AREA
TOMORROW EVENING. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE 0C AT
850MB BY 12 SATURDAY. IN FACT...850MB TEMPS WILL BE 1-2C WARMER
THAN TODAY AND WE GOT INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S TODAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS. SATURDAY MORNING/NORTH OF I-94 IS THE MOSTLY LIKELY
TIME AND LOCATION TO SEE A LITTLE SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND ANY
VERY LIGHT SNOW/ICE ACCUMS WILL MELT. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN IN THE LOWER
40S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG BL WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ADVECTION IS STRONG ONLY
BECAUSE WE ARE STARTING SO WARM SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE
INCOMING AIR MASS ISN`T OVERLY COLD. THERE IS...HOWEVER...35-40KTS
BELOW 900MB...SO SATURDAY MORNING WILL FEEL MUCH BETTER THAN LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF MN. ANY PRECIP THAT HAPPENS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL MN ON SATURDAY WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW GIVEN HOW FAST THE TEMP PROFILE
COOLS. AGAIN...NOT MUCH LIQUID IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS NORTH AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST THU JAN 15 2015
A COMPLICATED FORECAST AHEAD AS THE EXACT LOCATION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE KEY IN CONDITIONS FOR YOUR AREA. A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...AS WILL A DECK OF
STRATUS CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE RAP INDICATED SIGNIFICANT DRYING AT
850MB THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE AREA. A MORE SATURATED
ENVIRONMENT BELOW THIS LEVEL IS INDICATED...BUT AM OPTIMISTIC THAT
THE MODEL IS OVERDOING THE NEAR GROUND MOISTURE AND VFR CIGS WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AXN WHERE A
DECK OF IFR STRATUS LINGERS AND LOOKS TO WOBBLE NEAR AXN FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SPEED OF THE FRONT HAS SLOWED A BIT...SO ITS
SOUTHERN EXTENT BY THE TIME IT STALLS OUT TOMORROW WILL BE FROM
NEAR AXN TOWARD RGK. NAM INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR --S ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS BOUNDARY.
KMSP...FIRST FEW HOURS OF MVFR WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF STRATUS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT EXPECTING CIGS TO POTENTIALLY BECOME VFR
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL FILL BACK IN AND
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VCSH
INTRODUCED GIVEN NAM INDICATION OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
300 PM EST THU JAN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND
GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS EARLY INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS REACHED ALABAMA AND CONTINUES TO PRESS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.
THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST
AROUND 06 UTC FRIDAY. THE CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION IS JUST WEST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WITH
GEORGIA. THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS SHOWING THE BEST LIFT IS
AROUND 00 UTC IN OUR AREA. THE LATEST HRRR IS NOT AS OPTIMISTIC ON
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT IT IS SHOWING THE BETTER COVERAGE IN GEORGETOWN
AND WILLIAMSBURG AREAS. WILL KEEP A 50 TO 70% POP OVERNIGHT BUT THIS
WILL BE FOR LIGHT RAIN. THE QPF TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE OF WINDS OVERNIGHT...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVERCAST ALL NIGHT THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN
THE MID 30 WITH UPPER 30S ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COASTAL FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY AND REMAIN SO INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD
REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH MID TO UPPER 50S...PERHAPS 60
SOUTH...ON SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 30 TO 35
WITH MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GO DOWNHILL AS AN
APPROACHING H5 SHORT WAVE INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT
TO BRING CLOUDS AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THIS IS A SCENARIO WHERE
WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE OVERNIGHT IF THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES
ASHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WAVE TO
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IT MAY BE TOO EARLY IN THE DAY FOR MUCH
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP SO WHILE SHOWERS LOOK A GOOD BET THUNDER MAY
BE HARD TO COME BY. COOL AND DRY ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DAY OF SUN TUESDAY WITH SOME RECOVERY IN
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO
LITTLE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES. MOISTURE MAY
BE STREAMING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE STRATUS DECK FINALLY BEGAN ERODING THIS MORNING...
AND BY 18-19Z EXPECT VFR AT ALL THE COASTAL SITES. THE INCREASING
CIRRUS HAS HELPED MAINTAIN IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT BY ISSUANCE TIME CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO AT LEAST MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VRBL THROUGH THE
DAY...GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PRODUCING -RA AND TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS AROUND MIDNIGHT. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...
DO NOT ANTICIPATE PERSISTENT IFR OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ON
FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW AOB 10 KT AND SUNNY SKIES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR FRI AND SAT. RAIN AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE
ON SUN. VFR ON MON AND TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM...LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BLOWING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AS A UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEA HEIGHTS ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET WITH A FEW 4 FOOTERS 15 TO 20 MILES
OFF THE POINT OF CAPE FEAR. WITH THE INCREASE IN THE WINDS THE SEAS
WILL RESPOND WITH MORE 4 FOOTERS 15 TO 20 MILES OFF THE COAST FROM
FRYING PAN NORTHWARD AND IN MOST SOUTHWEST PORTION OF AMZ256.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY AND VEER TO SE TO S SATURDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AOB
15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WILL RUN 3 TO 4
FEET THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH 1 TO 2 FOOTERS ARE EXPECTED
CLOSER TO SHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER WINDS TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...5 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE AT 20
NM OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PREFRONTAL FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY
TO THE POINT WHERE ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED. THE POST-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE STRONGER FLOW AND
THE ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE DUE TO WINDS EVEN AS THE ABRUPT TURN TO
OFFSHORE PUSHES THE LARGEST SEAS OUT OF THE 20NM MARKER. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ON MONDAY KEEPING THE
WINDS OFFSHORE BUT WITH A MUCH LESSER GRADIENT. THE FLOW WILL ALSO
ACQUIRE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT LATER IN THE DAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OFF THE COAST. LIGHT SWRLY FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
354 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LOW
CLOUDS...FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AND STRONG WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE INDICATES IFR STRATUS OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
BAND SPREADING SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST
ITERATION OF THE RAP BROUGHT THE STRATUS THROUGH BISMARCK BUT JUST
EAST OF WILLISTON. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KMOT AND KJMS
THIS EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS TREND OF FLURRIES IN THE
BAND OF STRATUS. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AS BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS. LOW LEVEL OMEGA
ALSO REMAINS FROM AROUND MINOT TO JAMESTOWN AND WILL CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS BACK NORTH AND EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW STRATUS ENDS UP
TONIGHT WILL BE A BIG DETERMINANT OF TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 40S WHILE THE NORTH CENTRAL
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS MIGHT REMAIN ONLY IN THE LOWER
20S...WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE BORDER...BUT KEPT MAINLY DRY TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WHICH REMAINS IN
THE DRY SECTOR OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THUS MAIN
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AND/OR SNOW. WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE.
THE MAIN HAZARD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG
WINDS. THE STRONGEST BURST OF WINDS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WEST...AND DURING THE DAY CENTRAL. STRONG
FALL/RISE PRESSURE COUPLET WILL AID WINDS DURING THE MORNING WEST
BUT THIS IS TYPICALLY A TOUGH TIME TO GET STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. FALL/RISE COUPLET MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY WHICH SHOULD HELP AID THE ALREADY STRONG GRADIENT WINDS.
THE COUPLET DOES WEAKEN THOUGH AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME THINK IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WIND HIGHLIGHTS.
ALTHOUGH THINK ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR NOW AND CONTINUE THE MENTION IN THE HWO.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE LOW IS OFF TO OUR EAST...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BREAKS DOWN THE
WESTERN SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION - MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW - SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT TRAVERSES THE STATE FROM
WEST TO EAST. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ARE IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON SMALLER SCALE
IMPULSES...BUT IN GENERAL THEY DEPICT A WESTERN RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST AND GENERAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A GENERAL COOLING TREND FROM HIGHS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY...COOLING TO THE TEENS AND 20S BY
WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE
DURING THIS TIME WILL LEAD TO SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OFF AND ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN KMOT AND KJMS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT
FLURRIES AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO KMOT-KJMS...LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SLIGHT
SHIFT WEST COULD CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS IN KISN/KBIS AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL OUTPUT AND UPDATE FUTURE TAFS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
242 PM MST THU JAN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND NORMAL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND RUN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE WITH COOLER
TEMPS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE BORDERLAND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE FOG LINGERED A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED EARLIER TODAY AS WEAK
TROFING LINGERED OVER THE AREA AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT NEVER MANAGED
TO MIX DOWN DRIER AIR. WITH THE TROUGH EXITING OVERNIGHT SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS COMBINED WITH
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER
SUNSET. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP OFF AND IT APPEARS THAT THE
MAJOR OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. EARLY AFTERNOON DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THE LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW ELEVATED
DEW POINTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT SOME PATCHY FREEZING
FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SAME AREAS THAT SAW THE
FOG THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SW
OVERNIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE COOLING
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
AFTERWARDS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN FOR A STRETCH OF NICE WEATHER
WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH. BY MID WEEK THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THE GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO CLOSE THIS SYSTEM OFF AS IT CROSSES THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME A SURGE OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE IN
THE FORM OF A BACK DOOR FRONT. WHILE IT IS STILL WAY OUT AT THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO PLACE SOME RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR THE DAY 7 AND 8 TIME FRAMES.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION...
AND WITH NO STRONG ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR...VALLEY RADIATIONAL FOG
MAY REDEVELOP IN A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND
NOT NEARLY AS DENSE AS THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE TULAROSA BASIN.
12Z MET MOS SUGGESTED BRIEF 1/4SM FOR ELP DESPITE 2 DEGREE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...WENT MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE TAFS. ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING...AGAIN MUCH QUICKER THAN TODAY. EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET AND DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB
TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY
WITH LOWLAND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWLANDS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 20S...KEEPING MIN RH VALUES IN
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 800MB...WILL RESULT IN
STARK DEWPOINT CONTRASTS WITH ELEVATION WITH SINGLE DIGIT AND
BELOW-ZERO DEWPOINTS YIELDING MIN RH VALUES INTO THE LOWER TEENS
ABOVE 7500 FEET. THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY COLD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRAZE THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER
SATURDAY...WITH A VERY WEAK EASTERLY PUSH COOLING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY. A BROAD RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS IN THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VENT RATES WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND POSSIBLY
INTO NEXT WEEK AS WARMER/DRIER AIR ALOFT LIMITS MIXING HEIGHTS
AND LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 29 58 32 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 28 59 31 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 27 58 29 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 24 56 29 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 24 46 29 47 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 29 57 29 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 25 54 29 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 27 58 27 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 28 55 29 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 30 59 33 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 26 56 27 61 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 29 59 31 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 29 53 31 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
FABENS 27 58 31 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 27 58 29 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 28 58 32 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 23 56 27 58 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
HATCH 25 57 29 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 28 57 29 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 27 55 30 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 25 58 33 56 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 23 51 29 51 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 24 51 30 53 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 25 55 27 56 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 29 56 31 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 24 56 28 59 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 22 57 27 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 25 53 28 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 23 60 28 62 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 23 57 26 59 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 28 53 30 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 30 57 29 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 25 57 27 63 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 25 58 28 64 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 30 57 31 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
LANEY/HARDIMAN