Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/10/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST THU JAN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
BRING INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE THEN EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF MOISTURE FOR JANUARY. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING AT .92
WHICH IS ABOUT 238 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ONE INCH VALUES NEAR THE
BORDER. A 1 INCH MEASUREMENT ON THE 00Z SOUNDING WOULD PUT US IN THE
TOP 10 ALL TIME PW VALUES EVER FOR JANUARY. THE LOW NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA TRACKING SLOWLY INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO
JUST SOUTH OF US. LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY...BUT WITH THIS MUCH MOISTURE IT DOESN`T TAKE MUCH FOR
WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF BRIEF
MODERATE SHOWERS. HRRR AND UOFA WRF-NAM HINTING AT A CONVECTIVE BAND
THROUGH MUCH OF PIMA AND SOUTHERN PINAL COUNTY THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHOWERS DIMINISH AFTER 9-10PM.
STILL A FEW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES INTO
NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA FRIDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL LIFT THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS.
A RELATIVELY WEAK CHAOTIC FLOW WITH A GENERAL ECMWF/GFS MODEL BLEND
BRINGS A STRONGER WIGGLE IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY FOR ANOTHER SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY THEN OUR SNOW LEVELS
WILL PROBABLY BE LOW ENOUGH FOR AN INCH OR TWO ABOVE 8000 FEET.
A STRONGER IMPULSE SHOULD DIG DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
TOWARD US LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES NEAR
THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TRAJECTORIES FAVOR A GRADIENT
OF INCREASING PRECIP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST WINNER.
RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/00Z.
AREAS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09/18Z
WITH THE COVERAGE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NORTH OF KSAD-KCGZ LINE SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AOB 12K FT.
SOUTH OF A KSAD-KCGZ LINE EXPECT CIGS OF 5-8K FT WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS
ABOVE WITH ISOLD VSBYS 3-5SM IN SHOWERS AND FOG. HIGHEST TERRAIN
PARTIALLY TO MOSTLY OBSCURED. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 09/18Z. WINDS EASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT
INCREASING TO SE 10-15 KTS GILA RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING KSAD AFTER
09/18Z. CERNIGLIA
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A SERIES OF FOUR WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOL AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO
GENERATE SHOWERS AT TIMES WITH A FOCUS ON TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING THEN RETURN LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. CERNIGLIA
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/CERNIGLIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
307 AM PST THU JAN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WARM AND DRY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR
AREAS OF LATE NIGHT TO MORNING FOG ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH CLOUDS...
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND EVEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGH THE
VALLEY...NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY AND BETWEEN
10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF JANUARY.
IN ADDITION TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL BRING PATCHY DENSE FOG TO GENERALLY THE WEST AND
CENTRAL PART OF THE VALLEY. AS OF 2 AM...VISIBILITIES RANGED FROM
3/4 OF A MILE IN HANFORD TO 3 MILES IN MERCED. THE HRRR INDICATES
THAT VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING AROUND 10 AM.
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY MORNING...AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE A SUBTLE COOLING
TREND...WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA
NEVADA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH
IMPACTS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IMPACTING THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 7500 TO 8000 FEET...WITH JUST A TRACE OF SNOWFALL FORECAST
FOR THE SIERRA CREST. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT ADDED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE CREST...THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MARGINAL AMOUNT
OF MU CAPE...IN THE 100 J/KG RANGE. IF THESE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO
DEVELOP...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE SIERRA CREST
TO RECEIVE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT
LEAST SOME RAIN/SNOW ACTIVITY OVER THE CREST AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH RES ARW, HIGH RES NMM, NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF
ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS.
BY SUNDAY...A FEW OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH INTO KERN COUNTY FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...IMPACTING
AS FAR NORTH AS TULARE COUNTY. FOR THIS TIME FRAME NCEPS ENSEMBLE
MEAN IS SHOWING MEDIUM PREDICTABILITY WITH THE NAFES PROBABILITY
OF MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION TRENDING HIGHER OVER THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND UPDATE
THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION MONDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN OF
DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH PATCHES OF LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 17Z THURSDAY...AND AGAIN AFTER 08Z
FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...VFR/MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO HAZE
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
.END..
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY JANUARY 8 2015... UNHEALTHY IN KERN AND KINGS
COUNTIES. UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... MADERA...
MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KINGS... MADERA...
MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. NO BURNING FOR ALL IN KERN COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 01-08 72:1911 37:1968 53:1953 22:1888
KFAT 01-09 70:1953 39:1947 56:1995 23:1949
KFAT 01-10 68:1959 38:1947 54:1936 18:1949
KBFL 01-08 74:1953 36:1947 53:1941 19:1913
KBFL 01-09 73:2004 39:1937 56:1970 21:1937
KBFL 01-10 71:2012 38:1972 55:1959 21:1937
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
744 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
.UPDATE...UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SE TONIGHT HAS PRODUCED PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS S AL...FL PANHANDLE...AND S GA THIS EVENING. RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS 00Z SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS RAIN ENDING OVER S GA
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. HAVE
RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
STILL MAY HAVE A BRIEF LIGHT FREEZE AROUND SUNRISE IN A FEW SPOTS
OVER THE INTERIOR AS CLOUDS START TO THIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS NW WINDS
WILL VEER NNE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS BECOMING 6 KTS OR
LESS AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS MAINLY ACROSS NE FL AROUND SUNRISE SAT MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME WITH
MOST OBS UPSTREAM ALL VFR WITH PASSING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. AS WINDS VEER ONSHORE TO NE SAT MIDDAY AND COASTAL TROUGH
FORMS OFFSHORE...EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS FROM OFFSHORE TO ADVECT
INLAND SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BY 00Z
SAT AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. COULD BE SOME PASSING SHOWERS AT
COASTAL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...SCEC CONDITIONS OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH N WINDS 15-20
KNOTS AND SEA 4-6 FEET. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH FORMS. EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FOR MOST OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TONIGHT. MODERATE RISK ON SATURDAY AS
WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND INCREASE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 31 52 35 55 / 20 0 0 30
SSI 37 52 45 61 / 10 0 30 50
JAX 35 55 46 67 / 10 10 30 40
SGJ 41 58 56 71 / 10 10 50 50
GNV 34 59 47 72 / 10 10 10 30
OCF 35 61 50 75 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/ENYEDI/GUILLET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1139 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...
257 PM CST
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. THIS
IS FOLLOWED BY A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS AROUND ANOTHER COLD
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEFORE GETTING TO THE SNOW AND COLD...I WANTED TO MAKE A NOTE THAT
PARTNERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING ICE JAMS ON SEVERAL AREA RIVERS. WHILE
WE ARE NOT AWARE OF IMMINENT FLOODING PROBLEMS...CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT WHICH CAN RESULT IN RAPIDLY
FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
EARLIER IN THE SHIFT THE WIND CHILL WARNING WAS CONVERTED TO A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY.TEMPERATURES RECOVERED A BIT TODAY AND MOST LOCATIONS
ARE ABOVE ZERO. IN SPITE OF THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR BEING OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO LEVELS COLDER THAN LAST
NIGHT..AND THUS WIND CHILL READINGS WILL STILL BE VERY COLD. OUR
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW -30 FOR A LONG
PERIOD OF TIME...THE CURRENT WARNING CRITERIA...IS LOW...BUT HIGH
FOR -25 TO -30 WIND CHILLS. THEREFORE...WHILE COLDER WIND CHILLS
ARE POSSIBLE...AN ADVISORY SEEMS TO BETTER SERVE THE SITUATION.
DO NOT BE FOOLED...IT WILL STILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN TO
PROTECT YOURSELF OUTDOORS. HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN PORTER COUNTY
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO ABOUT AN
INCH OF SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED. THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW
THIS NEW SNOW AROUND AS WELL IN THESE AREAS...WITH PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW ELSEWHERE. 850-925 MB WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO MORE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AND THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SHIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF PORTER
COUNTY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE THE REGION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE ARE REALLY TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH...ONE WEAKER WAVE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND A STRONGER
WAVE WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THE FIRST WAVE ROLLS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER WAVE IN THE EVENING.
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
NORTH OF THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE BETTER SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
THIS ALSO WHERE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS...WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE
MORE FAVORED AREA FOR CLIPPER SNOWS. AHEAD OF THE MODEST SURFACE
LOW AND BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY...INITIALLY DRY AIR WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION...BUT MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. LOOKING ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH IN THE METRO AREA WITH BEST
CHANCES NORTH...WITH NEAR TWO INCHES POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
WISCONSIN BORDER IN LAKE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT OF AROUND 0.1 INCHES OF QPF NORTH...TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
FAR SOUTH. WHILE IT WILL BE A DRY SNOW...OMEGA IS BROAD NOT ALL
DENDRITIC GROWTH SNOW AS THERE ARE SOME WARMER LAYERS IN THE
COLUMN IN FROM 5K-10K FT. THEREFORE THINKING OF RATIOS OF ABOUT
13-15:1. WHILE THIS DOES NOT SOUND LIKE A BIG DEAL...THE SNOW WILL
FALL DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE. AND ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS WILL BE BLOWING AROUND WHICH WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY REDUCE SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT.
WILL HANDLE THIS WITH AN SPS.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
257 PM CST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THURSDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND
IT CREATING BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS AS ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE PLAINS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK TODAY`S SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE. BUT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH ANOTHER DUMP OF
BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS IS NOT AS COLD OF AIR AS WE ARE SEEING TODAY BUT PRETTY
CLOSE. WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT DROP TO -15 TO -20. BREEZY WEST
WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MAYBE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NOT RECOVERING A TON FROM
THESE VALUES. THE RIDGE THEN SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO DIP BACK
INTO THE -20 TO -25 RANGE.
BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL OVER THE MIDWEST
AS THE UPPER JET AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SHIFT THE COLD
CORE BACK NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTRY AND INTO CANADA.
WINDS EASE AND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY...BUMPING HIGHS SATURDAY INTO THE
TEENS SATURDAY AND EVEN THE TWENTIES ON SUNDAY...WITH A 30 POSSIBLE
FAR SOUTH. THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES TOWARDS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. WITH A WEAK WAVE TRANSLATING NORTH AND
EASTWARD IN A BROAD WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AT
THIS TIME WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS DEPENDS
ON THE STRENGTH OF A BUILDING SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AS TO
HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW...BUT THERE COULD BE A MIX FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT THE GFS SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE
ECMWF/GEM...SO HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING SETS UP BEYOND THIS TIME WITH THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW MIDWEEK.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* GUSTY SSW/SW WINDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY LEADING
TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE RIVER. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THURSDAY...AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME QUITE GUSTY PUSHING 30 KT AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO CATCH THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS...MAINLY FROM
EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITHIN THE SNOW...EXPECT VSBY
TO DROP INTO THE 1-2SM RANGE...THOUGH WITH STRONG WINDS STILL IN
PLACE THERE MAY BE PERIODS WHERE IT DROPS BELOW A MILE. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING TURNING
WINDS BACK TO THE WNW AND GENERALLY MARKING THE END OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM IN MAGNITUDE.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SNOW...LOW-MEDIUM ON IMPACTS
TO VIS/CIGS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND
MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
306 PM CST
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHEN GALES EASE TO POSSIBLY JUST BELOW GALE FORCE
THURSDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT DURATION
OF ANY POTENTIAL SUB-GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AND OPTED TO
RUN GALE WARNING THROUGH THE DURATION OF THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIGHTENING UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON THURSDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL
NOON THURSDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...11 AM
THURSDAY TO 9 PM FRIDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878...11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ868...11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM
FRIDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-
LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-
LMZ868...11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 11 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1104 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
Large area of Arctic high pressure centered over southwest
Missouri early this evening is expected to continue to drift to
our south overnight. This will bring winds around to the southwest
which should put a stop to the free-falling temps we have seen
this evening. In addition, the HRRR moisture profiles suggest an
increase in high level clouds from the northwest after midnight as
our next shortwave and attendant cold front approach our area for
late tomorrow. The surface high is far enough to our southwest to
allow the tighter pressure gradient to be across the north
overnight. So even though we will see the temperature decline slow
down later tonight, a wind of 5 to 10 mph with overnight lows of
10 to 15 below will create wind chills of 20 to 30 below zero
across the far north, with 15 to 25 below zero common elsewhere.
Have made some tweaks to the overnight lows across the north where
the early evening temperature decline has brought a couple of
sites within a few degrees of their expected overnight lows.
Otherwise, no other changes were required. Should have an updated
ZFP out by 845 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
Arctic high pressure continues to slide southeast into Missouri...
with cold temperatures remaining over the CWA this afternoon into
this evening. Northwest winds will stay breezy through the remainder
of the afternoon...decreasing around sunset. As the high pushes
southeastward...temperatures will bottom out over the northwest
counties slightly after midnight and will then begin to slowly rise
as winds shift to the southwest and a slightly warmer air mass
enters western portions of Illinois. Meanwhile...the colder air will
linger over northeastern portions of Illinois through the mid
morning. Decided to lean a little more towards temperatures not
going too cold overnight given the warmer 850mb temperatures moving
into the area. However...with snow cover and mostly clear skies
temperatures will still not have a problem dropping off overnight.
Wind chills have been updated for the overnight period due to
warming the minimum temperatures slightly. The warning and advisory
are still in place...since wind chills will range from around -15 to
-30. Some counties in the sw CWA were downgraded from a Warning to
an Advisory. Otherwise...temperatures slowly warming up will allow
the Warning and Advisory to expire in the tomorrow period.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
Next wave rotating through eastern North America trough is expected
to approach Illinois on Thursday which should allow southwest flow
to set up with resultant warm advection. By 00z Thursday Evening 850
mb temps are progged to warm 10-20C in 24 hours. However, with snow
cover over northern forecast area and increasing clouds highs should
remain below normal.
Next surge of cold air should blast in Thursday Night and Friday
behind the wave. Air behind this wave not quite as cold as the
current airmass, but some readings below zero Friday Morning in snow
covered areas seems like a good bet and with winds 10-20 mph progged
may have to consider another wind chill advisory across the north
once we make it through this ongoing cold event. Even A few flurries
may be possible with wave passage, but moisture is extremely limited
so do not expect any measurable snowfall.
Heights begin to build late Friday as flow transitions to more
zonal, temps should respond with a warming trend reaching near
seasonal normals by Sunday. Latest (12z) GFS has shifted more in
line with ECMWF in forecasting a southern stream wave producing
precip as far north as the forecast area Sunday Night and early
Monday. Earlier iterations of GFS kept moisture more limited with
this system and produced precip only as far northwest as the Ohio
River. Will trend a bit upward with PoPs with this system.
As for precip type, GFS (12z) forecasted thermal profile suggests an
area of mixed/freezing rain will be possible. For now will
broadbrush given the spread in GEFS solutions and wait for event to
become better delineated before being more specific. Colder air
should return following the system for midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
Forecast concerns this period include wind gusts on Thursday and
threat for snow flurries with another Arctic cold front late in
the day, especially across the north. VFR conditions expected thru
22z Thu and then the threat for MVFR cigs arrives along with some
flurries across the north with a cold front by evening. Until then,
some bkn-ovc cirrus arrives from northwest to southeast after 09z
tonight and continues into the morning hours. Winds currently out
of the west will back more into the southwest by morning and then
out of a south to southwest direction Thursday with speeds tonight
around 10 kts or less, and then increase to between 15 and 20 kts
by late Thu morning with some gusts of 20 to 30 kts possible by
afternoon. This will cause some blowing snow once again across the
north where the deeper snow cover was located. At this point, may
add some VCSH at PIA and BMI late tomorrow aftn and evening but
won`t go south of those two sites with this forecast issuance.
Southwest winds of 15 to 25 kts tomorrow evening with shift more
into a westerly direction after 01z at PIA and BMI and by 04z over
at CMI.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until Noon CST Thursday FOR ILZ036-040>042-
047>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
WIND CHILL WARNING until Noon CST Thursday FOR ILZ027>031-037-
038-043>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...ALW
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
507 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE TEMPERATURE
TREND AS THE WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS WELL AS THE STRATUS TO THE WEST THAT IS ADVECTING EASTWARD AND
FIGHTING MUCH DRIER AIR. THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS OF THE MOS AND
RAW MODEL FORECASTS SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AS WARM AS NEAR 50 DEGREES AROUND ELKHART WHERE
THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT WILL BE MOST MAGNIFIED. THE EFFECTS OF THE
SNOW FIELD IS PROBABLY EFFECTING THE NAM MODEL FAR TOO MUCH WITH
THE WIDESPREAD LOW 30S. A WEAK FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WILL EXIST ABOVE
THE 750 TO 700 MB LEVEL TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ALSO IN
PROXIMITY TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THE NAM
INDICATES SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH OF A SATURATED LAYER AND JUST
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR ICE PROBABILITY FOR AN ALL SNOW PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND UNDER A HALF INCH IN GENERAL. THE OBSERVED SINGLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL BE A GOOD
INDICATOR TO WHAT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO
FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. NORTHWESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW
AND 900MB TO 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 30S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW HIGHS OF AROUND 40 DEGREES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHERE IT
IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ON SUNDAY JUST SOUTH OF
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN MOVING THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND AS IT ENCOUNTERS WEAK
LIFT THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA
INTO TEXAS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL RETURN TO WESTERN
KANSAS AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ANOTHER, STRONGER, UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IF FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
FOR SNOW FALL ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS GIVEN THE
DEVELOPING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY. AS THIS
FRONT PASSES THE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST. 06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MEAN MIXED LAYER
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THAT THE
NAM, ARW AND NMM WERE ALL IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE LATEST NAM FOR FROPA AT HAY AND GCK AROUND
18Z AND DDC AROUND 21Z. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY, HOWEVER THE NAM DOES INDICATE THAT THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL SATURATE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME THE NAM
WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOWER LEVEL SATURATING EARLY THIS
EVENING SO WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION BUT WILL NOT GO AS LOW AS
WHAT THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 42 9 22 10 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 45 10 24 11 / 0 10 0 0
EHA 49 15 27 17 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 46 12 25 13 / 0 10 0 0
HYS 39 5 19 8 / 0 0 0 0
P28 40 9 23 8 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
337 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE TEMPERATURE
TREND AS THE WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS WELL AS THE STRATUS TO THE WEST THAT IS ADVECTING EASTWARD AND
FIGHTING MUCH DRIER AIR. THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS OF THE MOS AND
RAW MODEL FORECASTS SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AS WARM AS NEAR 50 DEGREES AROUND ELKHART WHERE
THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT WILL BE MOST MAGNIFIED. THE EFFECTS OF THE
SNOW FIELD IS PROBABLY EFFECTING THE NAM MODEL FAR TOO MUCH WITH
THE WIDESPREAD LOW 30S. A WEAK FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WILL EXIST ABOVE
THE 750 TO 700 MB LEVEL TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ALSO IN
PROXIMITY TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THE NAM
INDICATES SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH OF A SATURATED LAYER AND JUST
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR ICE PROBABILITY FOR AN ALL SNOW PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND UNDER A HALF INCH IN GENERAL. THE OBSERVED SINGLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL BE A GOOD
INDICATOR TO WHAT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO
FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. NORTHWESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW
AND 900MB TO 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 30S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW HIGHS OF AROUND 40 DEGREES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHERE IT
IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ON SUNDAY JUST SOUTH OF
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN MOVING THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND AS IT ENCOUNTERS WEAK
LIFT THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA
INTO TEXAS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL RETURN TO WESTERN
KANSAS AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ANOTHER, STRONGER, UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IF FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
FOR SNOW FALL ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS GIVEN THE
DEVELOPING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED EASTWARD MOVING STRATUS
THAT HAS EXTENDED TO A LINE FROM EAST OF SYRACUSE TO NEAR HUGOTON.
THE VFR STRATUS WILL LIKELY REACH GARDEN CITY IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS OF THIS TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD WITH LESS FORECASTER
CERTAINTY OF IMPACTING AT ALL AT HAYS AND DDC. THE HRRR MODEL 850 MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS TENDS TO SUPPORT THE TREND, HOWEVER IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 42 9 22 10 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 45 10 24 11 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 49 15 27 17 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 46 12 25 13 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 39 5 19 8 / 0 0 0 0
P28 40 9 23 8 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
331 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. BETWEEN THESE TOW FEATURES WAS A
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION,
PROMOTING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS NEBRASKA, WESTERN KANSAS
AND THE PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST LOCATIONS AT MIDNIGHT, TO
ABOUT THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE BY 2 AM. TEMPERATURES WERE WARMEST
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE A CANOPY OF STRATUS WAS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST COUNTIES...WESTWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND THE FRONT RANGE. DEW POINTS WERE INCREASING AS WELL
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE VERY DRY -5 TOP -9 VALUES THAT WERE
OBSERVED IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE TEMPERATURE
TREND AS THE WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS WELL AS THE STRATUS TO THE WEST THAT IS ADVECTING EASTWARD AND
FIGHTING MUCH DRIER AIR. THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS OF THE MOS AND
RAW MODEL FORECASTS SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AS WARM AS NEAR 50 DEGREES AROUND ELKHART WHERE
THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT WILL BE MOST MAGNIFIED. THE EFFECTS OF THE
SNOW FIELD IS PROBABLY EFFECTING THE NAM MODEL FAR TOO MUCH WITH
THE WIDESPREAD LOW 30S. A WEAK FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WILL EXIST ABOVE
THE 750 TO 700 MB LEVEL TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ALSO IN
PROXIMITY TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THE NAM
INDICATES SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH OF A SATURATED LAYER AND JUST
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR ICE PROBABILITY FOR AN ALL SNOW PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND UNDER A HALF INCH IN GENERAL. THE OBSERVED SINGLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL BE A GOOD
INDICATOR TO WHAT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY AND HELP PUSH ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO WESTERN KANSAS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS FRIDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S BY
AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGHING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, LEADING TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILDER HIGHS IN
THE 30S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY, ALLOWING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF YET
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS TO PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND PROBABLY INTO MONDAY, WITH
CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
SNOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE WEST. EACH MODEL AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS THAT
WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW FALLS. THIS SERIES OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL COME TO AN END MID NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES, WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING PROGRESSING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL ALLOW FOR AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED EASTWARD MOVING STRATUS
THAT HAS EXTENDED TO A LINE FROM EAST OF SYRACUSE TO NEAR HUGOTON.
THE VFR STRATUS WILL LIKELY REACH GARDEN CITY IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS OF THIS TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD WITH LESS FORECASTER
CERTAINTY OF IMPACTING AT ALL AT HAYS AND DDC. THE HRRR MODEL 850 MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS TENDS TO SUPPORT THE TREND, HOWEVER IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 42 9 22 10 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 45 10 24 11 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 49 15 27 17 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 46 12 25 13 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 39 5 19 8 / 0 0 0 0
P28 40 9 23 8 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1059 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE STILL STIRRING A BIT IN SEVERAL AREAS...THE SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE STILL PROJECTS A SLACKENING PRESS GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AS
1038 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN KY BY DAWN. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE NOT DROPPED TOO FAR INTO THE
TEENS AS OF YET TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM PERIOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS HIGH WILL USHER IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS WITH
PW OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. IN ADDITION...THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AND WITH DEWPOINTS WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IF NOT BELOW
ZERO...A CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE. THE FORECAST MIN T IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO APPEAR ON TARGET. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. OVERALL..NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
HAS MOVED WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...LEAVING ITS BAND OF
DISSIPATING CLOUDS AND SNOW BEHIND. JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES
ARE FADING OUT OVER NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SUNSHINE...AND POSITION JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY...HAS BEEN
ENOUGH FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO MAKE IT TO FREEZING OR A TICK ABOVE
THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE NOW ON THE
WAY BACK DOWN. READINGS AT 2 PM RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND NEAR 10 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH. WINDS
THROUGH THE AREA HAVE SWITCHED TO MORE WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH STILL POSSIBLE...WHILE A BIT MORE BEHIND THE
FRONT THE DIRECTION IS MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH RESIDENT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
AND RELAXES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION AS HEIGHTS REBOUND QUICKLY BY
SATURDAY EVENING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A DEVELOPING SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY OVER KENTUCKY. WITH THE GENERAL MODEL
AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE BRISK CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING AS
NORTHWEST WINDS BRING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES. THIS LATEST ARCTIC
SURGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THE LAST ONE WITH TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY DAWN SATURDAY.
WITH THE WINDS SETTLING AS THE COLDEST AIR MOVES IN WE WILL BE SPARED
THE WORST OF THE WIND CHILLS...THOUGH...THEY WILL LIKELY DROP TO
NEAR ZERO IN A FEW PLACES TONIGHT. THE CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST
PLACES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RETREATING HIGH SETS THE STAGE FOR
A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS WITH SOME MINOR TERRAIN BASED POINT
ADJUSTMENTS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. AS FOR POPS...ASIDE FROM SOME
LINGERING SINGLE DIGIT VALUES EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
EAST...HAVE BASICALLY ZEROED OUT POPS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...ALSO
IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT A WARM FRONT
ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS.
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION AT BAY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...BUT MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH PRECIPITATION MAKING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY EARLY EVENING. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY WITH
WITH CLOUDS MOVING ON IN...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF MUCH
INTO THE NIGHT. THUS...AS IT STANDS NOW...WE SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES (AND FREEZING
RAIN THREAT) STAYING JUST TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION...WE MAY SEE A
BIT OF SLEET MIX IN INITIALLY BEFORE SEEING JUST RAIN. THE SLEET
THREAT WILL BE PRIMARILY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ONGOING ON MONDAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXING WITH AND PERHAPS CHANGING TO
SNOW LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...DEEPER
MOISTURE IS DEPARTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS MONDAY...AND WE MAY
LOSE THE ICE IN THE CLOUDS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE DRIZZLE VERSES
SNOW. REGARDLESS...ANY SNOW SHOULD HAVE VERY LOW IMPACT ON THE AREA
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...LIMITING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE DEPARTS THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER A DRY PERIOD ON TUESDAY...A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF SNOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...BUT A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A BETTER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM
KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE VERY NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM. STILL LOTS OF DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE PRIMARILY
SNOW...ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND PRECIPITATION TYPE MIGHT BE DETERMINED BY PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY...WITH BETTER RATES YIELDING SNOW...AND LIGHTER RATES
BEING MORE RAIN OR DRIZZLE. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE SOUTHERN
TREND CONTINUES AS THIS COULD SHIFT PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA
IF IT CONTINUES. THE WEATHER WILL FINALLY QUIET DOWN BY LATE
THURSDAY WITH A QUIETER...BUT STILL CHILLY END TO THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD BRING VFR CONDITIONS.
SLACKENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD
AND WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 KT IN ALL AREAS AFTER THE FIRST
6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
726 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS HIGH WILL USHER IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS WITH
PW OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. IN ADDITION...THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AND WITH DEWPOINTS WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IF NOT BELOW
ZERO...A CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE. THE FORECAST MIN T IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO APPEAR ON TARGET. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. OVERALL..NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
HAS MOVED WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...LEAVING ITS BAND OF
DISSIPATING CLOUDS AND SNOW BEHIND. JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES
ARE FADING OUT OVER NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SUNSHINE...AND POSITION JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY...HAS BEEN
ENOUGH FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO MAKE IT TO FREEZING OR A TICK ABOVE
THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE NOW ON THE
WAY BACK DOWN. READINGS AT 2 PM RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND NEAR 10 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH. WINDS
THROUGH THE AREA HAVE SWITCHED TO MORE WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH STILL POSSIBLE...WHILE A BIT MORE BEHIND THE
FRONT THE DIRECTION IS MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH RESIDENT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
AND RELAXES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION AS HEIGHTS REBOUND QUICKLY BY
SATURDAY EVENING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A DEVELOPING SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY OVER KENTUCKY. WITH THE GENERAL MODEL
AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE BRISK CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING AS
NORTHWEST WINDS BRING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES. THIS LATEST ARCTIC
SURGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THE LAST ONE WITH TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY DAWN SATURDAY.
WITH THE WINDS SETTLING AS THE COLDEST AIR MOVES IN WE WILL BE SPARED
THE WORST OF THE WIND CHILLS...THOUGH...THEY WILL LIKELY DROP TO
NEAR ZERO IN A FEW PLACES TONIGHT. THE CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST
PLACES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RETREATING HIGH SETS THE STAGE FOR
A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS WITH SOME MINOR TERRAIN BASED POINT
ADJUSTMENTS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. AS FOR POPS...ASIDE FROM SOME
LINGERING SINGLE DIGIT VALUES EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
EAST...HAVE BASICALLY ZEROED OUT POPS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...ALSO
IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT A WARM FRONT
ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS.
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION AT BAY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...BUT MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH PRECIPITATION MAKING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY EARLY EVENING. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY WITH
WITH CLOUDS MOVING ON IN...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF MUCH
INTO THE NIGHT. THUS...AS IT STANDS NOW...WE SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES (AND FREEZING
RAIN THREAT) STAYING JUST TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION...WE MAY SEE A
BIT OF SLEET MIX IN INITIALLY BEFORE SEEING JUST RAIN. THE SLEET
THREAT WILL BE PRIMARILY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ONGOING ON MONDAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXING WITH AND PERHAPS CHANGING TO
SNOW LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...DEEPER
MOISTURE IS DEPARTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS MONDAY...AND WE MAY
LOSE THE ICE IN THE CLOUDS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE DRIZZLE VERSES
SNOW. REGARDLESS...ANY SNOW SHOULD HAVE VERY LOW IMPACT ON THE AREA
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...LIMITING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE DEPARTS THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER A DRY PERIOD ON TUESDAY...A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF SNOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...BUT A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A BETTER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM
KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE VERY NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM. STILL LOTS OF DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE PRIMARILY
SNOW...ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND PRECIPITATION TYPE MIGHT BE DETERMINED BY PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY...WITH BETTER RATES YIELDING SNOW...AND LIGHTER RATES
BEING MORE RAIN OR DRIZZLE. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE SOUTHERN
TREND CONTINUES AS THIS COULD SHIFT PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA
IF IT CONTINUES. THE WEATHER WILL FINALLY QUIET DOWN BY LATE
THURSDAY WITH A QUIETER...BUT STILL CHILLY END TO THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD BRING VFR CONDITIONS.
SLACKENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD
AND WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 KT IN ALL AREAS AFTER THE FIRST
6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
355 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE EXISTS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FOUND BETWEEN THE LOW
TO THE NORTH AND THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS TURNING THE WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING THEIR SPEEDS...NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA FIRST AND THE SOUTH LATER. THE EARLIER SUNSHINE...THESE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN WINDS...AND THE DEPARTING HIGH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S IN MOST
PLACES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH THE WARMER VALUES GENERALLY FOUND IN
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE STILL RATHER
LOW...RIGHT AROUND ZERO.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE MAIN PATTERN THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
DEPICT A DEEP SECONDARY TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY BEFORE RETREATING TO THE EAST DURING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY AND
ALLOWING THE HEIGHTS TO REBOUND. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT ALOFT WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL BLEND BUT FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR
FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A REINFORCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS...CONDITIONS WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS WITH THE GFS
PALTRY AND THE NAM12 A BIT MORE ROBUST. THE HRRR MEANWHILE KEEPS
THINGS DRY WITH THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH 08Z. THE SREF POPS HAVE ALSO
DROPPED WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. DO EXPECT SOME
FLURRIES AND A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO AROUND AS THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH
BUT IT SHOULD BE NOWHERE AS EXTENSIVE OR OCCASIONALLY INTENSE AS IT
WAS WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE. ACCORDINGLY...WILL KEEP
MENTION OF THE SNOW THREAT MAINLY IN THE HWO WHILE ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. POST FRONTAL...EXPECT BRISK WEST WINDS TO BRING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST
PLACES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AND SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS WITH SOME MINOR TERRAIN BASED POINT
ADJUSTMENTS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. GIVEN THE NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE RAW
CONSENSUS MODEL DATA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP HIGHER THAN ALL MOS FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEN AGREED WITH THEIR LOW SINGLE DIGITS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO MORE
SYSTEMS POISED TO AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY WITH VERY DRY AIR HOLDING OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THANKS TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. IN
FACT...WE MAY SEE SOME FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WITH MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE. A
MODEST WARM NOSE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE INITIALLY...CLOUD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ON
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE BIG QUESTION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING IS HOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESPOND. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME AREAS MAY NOT CLIMB BACK TO AROUND FREEZING UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME FREEZING RAIN. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO RESIDE ALONG OR NORTH OF I-64...BUT SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD BE AT PLAY AS WELL. CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. ON MONDAY...WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP EVERYTHING RAIN FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL
BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD...BUT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE EXITING. THIS MAY
YIELD EITHER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS
OUT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OF AN ISSUE HERE...BUT WE SHOULD SEE A FEW
SLICK ROADS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF A
LULL AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WE COULD
SEE SOME FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD IN THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. OUR NEXT
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM SUPPRESSED TO OUR
SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER...BUT FARTHER NORTH. BOTH MODELS
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF MORE SNOW AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE...JUST
A QUESTION OF WHERE AND HOW MUCH. CLEARLY THIS SYSTEM REMAINS AROUND
THE DAY 7 PERIOD AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...NOT GOING TO SPEND TOO
MUCH TIME ON THE DETAILS AS THEY ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE ANYWAYS.
HOWEVER...MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH AROUND THIS SYSTEM AS THE COLD AIR HAS ALL RETREATED WELL
TO OUR NORTH BY THIS TIME. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH OF A WARM NOSE
EITHER...SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A WET SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WITH THE EXIT OF THIS HIGH...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND THESE WILL
ALSO LOWER...PRIMARILY TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THIS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH
12Z... WITH SOME SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM BIG SANDY TO LONDON TOWARDS DAWN...SINKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID
MORNING UNDER LOW VFR OR HIGH MVFR CIGS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 20 KTS...CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT
BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING...POST FROPA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1127 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
LOWERED MIN TEMPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE NW WI FA. WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE BORDERLINE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
WILL LEAVE HEADLINES IN PLACE. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
DUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING...BUT
MAY BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF AS THE CLOUDS ARRIVE. THIS MAY AFFECT THE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE FOR NOW BUT
WILL RE-ASSES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE
SNOW TO 11Z AND REDUCED THE COVERAGE TO JUST THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR CHANGES AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
MAIN CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM ARE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND SNOW
THURSDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST
REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLE TO REACH NEAR ZERO IN SOME
PLACES. THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE WIND CHILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THIS EVENING DOWN INTO THE -10 TO -15 RANGE.
WITH THE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH AND COORDINATION...WILL KEEP WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF DROPPING THE ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS EVENING SO THAT WILL BEAR MONITORING.
THE NEXT CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE SNOWFALL ON THURSDAY. A
FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF MN DURING THE DAY. WAA WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL BECOME STEADY
THEN SLOWLY RISE TOWARD SUNRISE. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN BY SUNRISE IN
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SPREAD EAST RAPIDLY.
IT WILL END ACROSS THE WESTERN BY 18Z...TWIN PORTS AND OUT OF THE WI
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z-02Z. SNOWFALL WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AND MAY CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK END TO ANY SNOW THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
SFC TROF MOVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ONE
LAST COLD SHOT OF THE WEEK. AND THIS NEXT SHOT LOOKS JUST AS
COLD...IF NOT COLDER...THAN THE LAST TWO WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS
WEEK. THE GFS HAS 8H TEMPS OF -32C COMING SOUTH...THE ECMWF AT -31C
WITH THE NAM WARMEST AT ABOUT -28C. THE PAST TWO COLD EPISODES HAVE
SEEN THE INL RADIOSONDE MEASURING -28C...SO AS AT LEAST AS COLD. AND
WITH THE FRESH SNOW WE EXPECT...STILL BRISK WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES...IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD. MAY NEED TO BUMP CURRENT
THURSDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS DOWN A FEW NOTCHES.
ONCE THIS LAST COLD SNAP EASES UP THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MUCH
MORE ZONAL...WHICH WILL GIVE US INCREASINGLY WARMER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
VFR UNTIL 12Z WHEN LIGHT SNOW BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. MVFR IS EXPECTED AS THE SNOW INTENSIFIES THROUGH 20Z. A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM NW TO SE FROM 18Z THROUGH
00Z/09. GUSTY NW SFC WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -5 8 -12 -1 / 0 80 20 0
INL -8 6 -17 -4 / 0 80 20 10
BRD -6 10 -11 0 / 10 80 0 0
HYR -7 8 -11 -1 / 0 80 30 0
ASX -5 10 -7 1 / 0 80 50 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1113 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WAS TIMING A CLIPPER INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWING SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONCERNS THU
AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT.
FOR THE SNOW...MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH A WNW-ESE ORIENTED
BAND OF SNOW WITH TOTAL QPF OF AROUND 0.15 FALLING. WHERE THEY STILL
DISAGREE IS HOW FAR NORTH/SOUTH THAT BAND WILL BE. COMPARING
RUN-TOTAL QPFS THRU 12Z THU FROM VARIOUS MODELS TO WHAT THE RAP HAS
THROUGH THAT TIME /WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY THE END OF IT FORECAST
PERIOD/...IT INDICATES THE ECMWF IS RUNNING A LITTLE SLOW AND
NORTH...WHILE THE GEM IS FAST AND SOUTH. IN BETWEEN...AND MATCHING
UP WELL WITH WHAT THE RAP HAS THRU 12Z THU WERE THE SREF AND
NAM...SO BLENDED THE QPF FORECAST THAT DIRECTION...RESULTING IN
0.1-0.15" MELTED PRECIP BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...WHICH
RESULTED IN A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
UNLIKE SUNDAY NIGHTS SNOW WHEN ALMOST OUR ENTIRE PROFILE WAS COLDER
THAN -20C...RESULTING IN SNOW RATION CLOSER TO 10:1...PROFILES WITH
THIS SNOW ARE WARMER...WITH DEEPER SECTIONS IN THE ATMO GETTING INTO
THE FAVORED DGZ. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SNOW RATIOS UP MORE IN THE
16-19:1 RANGE...WHICH TRANSLATES TO A GOOD 1-3...MAYBE 4 INCHES
WITHIN THE HEAVIEST QPF SWATH. AMOUNTS WILL TAIL OFF PRETTY QUICK SW
OF I-94...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A LITTLE
BIT OF SNOW...WHICH WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR THU AFTN/NIGHT FOR WHEN
THE STRONG NW WINDS ARRIVE.
AS FOR THE WINDS...NOT MUCH CHANGED WITH THE GOING FORECAST. WE
STILL LOOK TO GET INTO STRONG CAA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO ABOVE 900 MB. NAM SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOW A SOLID 8-10 HOURS OUT AT RWF/FRM WHERE MIX DOWN WINDS ARE 35
KTS IN THE MID CHANNEL...WITH 45 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
CHANNEL...WHICH SHOULD EASILY TRANSLATE INTO FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 40
MPH. FOR BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARD ISSUES...THE BIG QUESTION WHERE AND
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. FOR THE AREA WITH THE BLIZZARD WATCH...A QUICK
TOUR OF ROADSIDE CAMERAS ACROSS THAT AREA SHOWED A SNOW PACK THAT
HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD IN THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND WILL
NEED SOME FRESH SNOW TO GET SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW ISSUES GOING.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE BLIZZARD WATCH AREA ALSO LOOKS TO BE THE PART OF
THE MPX CWA THAT SEES THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW...SO THE QUESTION
IS...IS A HALF INCH OF FRESH SNOW ENOUGH TO CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES THAT ARE STILL IN PLACE...LEFT
THE BLIZZARD WATCH IN PLACE...BUT RIGHT NOW...WOULD PLACE THE ODDS
AT NEEDING AN WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR BLOWING SNOW BEING HIGHER THAN
SEEING IT UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. WITH THAT SAID...THE GEM
SHOWS ALMOST OUR ENTIRE CWA GETTING 2 INCHES OF SNOW...AND IF THAT
WERE TO HAPPEN...THEN A BLIZZARD WARNING WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
WHERE THE WATCH CURRENTLY IS.
OUTSIDE OF THE BLIZZARD WATCH...WE WILL LIKELY NEED AN ADVY FOR
BLOWING SNOW AS WELL...AS ALTHOUGH THE MEAGER SNOW CURRENTLY ON THE
GROUND IN CENTRAL MN IS NOT GOING TO CREATE BLSN ISSUES...A FRESH
INCH OF POWDER WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN BLOWING
SNOW...THOUGH THE LACK OF EXISTING SNOW COVER SHOULD KEEP
VISIBILITIES IN CHECK. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A ISSUING AN
ADVY AT THIS TIME UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDEL ON EXACTLY WHERE AND
HOW MUCH SNOW WE WILL SEE ACROSS MN. FOR ERN MN AND WRN WI...AN ADVY
SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED AS ONE...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT GET TO OUR
ADVY CRITERIA...WHILE LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD TO FEWER ISSUES WITH
BLOWING SNOW.
OF COURSE WE CAN NOT FORGET THAT WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND
ZERO...WE ARE STILL SEEING WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -20F AND -30F.
HOWEVER...LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO COME BY 3Z IN WC MN AND 6Z IN WC WI
AS THE COMBINATION OF WINDS TURNING TO THE SW AND BRINGING IN WAA
ALONG WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE NW WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR
RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER 3Z/6Z. THESE RISING TEMPERATURES EXPLAIN
WHY WC AND CENTRAL MN WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WIND CHILL ADVY AS WIND
CHILL VALUES THERE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW...AS THIS
WILL BE THE "WARMEST" PART OF THE MPX CWA FOR ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
FRIDAY/S THERMAL PROFILE IS COMPARABLE TO TODAY/S 92H/85H TEMPS...OR
A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THIS BASICALLY TRANSLATES TO MORNING LOWS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE ADDED NEW
SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WIND SPDS WILL ALSO BE
SIMILAR WITH 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST SFC
TEMPS/WIND SPD...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE CLOSE AGAIN TO WARNING
CRITERIA WHICH IS -35F OR LOWER FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE THAT COULD BE A HIGH END WIND CHILL ADVISORY BASED
ON THIS MORNING VALUES.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
GRADUAL BREAK DOWN ON THE MEAN TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PART OF NORTH
AMERICA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE
ACROSS NE CANADA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
POSSIBLY ZONAL FLOW BY LATE NEXT WEEK IN OUR REGION. NO MAJOR
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST.
SOME OF THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALY OF 85H/50H HEIGHTS/TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ALSO INDICATE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPS SLOWLY RISE FROM NEAR ZERO ON FRIDAY...TO THE TEENS
AND 20S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND OF
THE EC/GFS MEAN 85H TEMPS AND THICKNESS VALUES OF THE 100-50H...DOES
SHOW NEAR FREEZING SFC TEMPS OR ABV FREEZING BY LATE NEXT WEEK...AND
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THIS AGAIN IS BASED ON THE SLOW
TRANSITION OF THE MEAN TROUGH...TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE STRONG DEVELOPMENT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR OF THE
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR CIGS AND SNOW
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. THIS WILL BE A
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 35 TO 40KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN MN. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AT
ALL SITES.
KMSP...
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STILL START AROUND 13Z. THE SNOW WILL BE
HEAVIEST DURING THE LATE MORNING...WITH AROUND 1 TO 2" OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUST IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 35KTS CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS WNW AT 15G25 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ053-060>070-
073>078-082>085-091>093.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ064-065-067-073>076-082>085-091>093.
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1159 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2015
Will add a mention of flurries across most of the area for this
afternoon as strong/persistent WAA and approaching shortwave
attempt to saturate the AMS over the CWA. This scenario is
suggested by the HRRR as well as the latest 4km lclwrf output, and
increasing mid level echoes noted on regional radar seems to
support this thinking. Otherwise, no major changes for this
afternoon.
In addition, have upped winds a bit tonight with the passage of
Arctic front #2, based on latest 12z MOS and well as current
surface obs north of the front that indicate winds are gusting
over 30kts over a large part of eastern SD and w MN.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 336 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2015
Surface ridge moves off to our southeast today allowing
southerly/southwesterly winds to return to the region. With tight
gradient and strong winds aloft, expect winds to mix down and pickup
by mid morning with gusts to 35 mph at times by this afternoon. So
after a very cold morning with temperatures bottoming out between -9
and +2 and high clouds streaming into region ahead of next cold
front, temps to rebound into the 20s with warmest temps over central
MO. Otherwise, temps to remain cold enough and winds up enough to
keep wind chill advisory going til 15z, then let it expire as
conditions improve.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2015
By tonight, next cold frontal boundary to move through forecast
area. So will see clouds on the increase and with a shallow layer
of low level moisture, could see some flurries develop across the
region, so added mention. Lows will be a bit warmer but still in
the single digits far north to the upper teens far south.
Even with plenty of sunshine on Friday, highs will only be in the 10
to 20 degree range. Then lows Friday night to dip down to near zero
far north to around 10 above far south.
On Saturday, surface ridge moves off to the east with south winds
returning. So moderating temps through the weekend with highs back
up near freezing by Sunday. In the meantime, next weather system to
come on shore over southwestern US then track northeast towards
forecast area. Extended models still have timing and placement
differences with this system. But the GFS and ECMWF continue to show
frontal boundary moving into the forecast area by Sunday night and
stalling out south of forecast area. So still expect a wintry mix of
precipitation Sunday through Monday. Forecast soundings are
indicating decent warm layer aloft especially over southern half of
forecast area through this period with a mix of freezing rain and
sleet possible. So added freezing rain mention. Then colder air to
filter in aloft with the mixed precipitation changing to all snow by
Monday night.
By midweek extended models show a southern stream system to our
south that could bring some snow to the southern half of Missouri
and Illinois.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2015
Persistent WAA and approach of upstream shortwave should lead to a
lowering and thicking of current mid and high cloud deck. Believe
bases will remain above 5kft over most of the area, but will need
to watch out for lower ceilings...and possibly lower
visibilities...if flurries mentioned in short term discussion
threaten any of the TAF sites.
Based on current upstream obs over e SD and sw MN...near the next
Arctic front...have gone with MVFR cigs 2000-2500 ft and
occasional flurries with it`s passage in the 02-07z time frame for
TAF sites in our CWA...with this post frontal band of MVFR cigs
advecting south out of the area by daybreak Friday. Have also
upped the winds with it`s passage as well, based on these obs as
well as latest 12z MET/MAV guidance.
Specifics for KSTL: S-SW winds gusting into the 20-25kt range and
ceilings aoa 5kft are expected this afternoon and this evening,
although will need to keep an eye on patches of light snow developing
in this mid cloud deck that could produce briefly lower ceilings
and visibilities. Ceilings are expected to drop into the
2000-3000 ft range by around 06z as next Arctic front surges
through the area, with occasional flurries and another round of NW
winds gusting to at least 25 kts.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
856 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2015
.UPDATE...
QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE
LAST COUPLE OF EVENINGS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH IS RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEGINNING ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND THIS IS ALLOWING FOR LEE-SIDE TROUGHING TO DEVELOP
AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM BILLINGS TO
LIVINGSTON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES JUMPING INTO THE
LOWER 20S FOR BILLINGS TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S TOWARD
LIVINGSTON AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. FURTHER EAST WHERE WINDS ARE
CALM TO LIGHT...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A BIT BELOW FORECAST
LOWS AROUND MILES CITY AND BAKER. BUT WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
ALONG WITH EXPECTED SOUTHEAST WINDS TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO DROP MUCH MORE AND SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE.
THEREFORE...RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST AND LOWERED A BIT IN
THE EAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS FOR LOWS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
UPDATES PLANNED. HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...
GENERALLY ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. DEEP COLD AIR
GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE EAST AS WARM AIR FILLS IN TO THE WEST.
THIS WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES THIS
EVENING. HRRR CROSS SECTIONS SHOW WARM AIR DEEPENING OVER
BILLINGS. SO I ANTICIPATE A RISE IN TEMPERATURES FROM AT LEAST
BILLINGS WESTWARD. THERE IS SOME DOUBT IF IT CAN PUSH ALL THE WAY
TO THE DAKOTA BORDER. AS FOR WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT...THEY DO NOT
LOOK NEARLY AS BAD AS LAST NIGHT WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW TYPICAL AND
WINDS MARGINAL FOR MEETING CRITERIA. THEREFORE...WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR WIND CHILLS AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY IS QUIET OVERALL...BUT WE DO HAVE SOME WEAK CHANNEL-WISE
VORTICITY TRACKING ACROSS NE MONTANA. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE
AND FORCING SO I ONLY ADDED SOME FLURRIES TO THE MILES CITY TO
BAKER AREAS FOR THIS WEATHER FEATURE. WEST OF THIS AREA WE SHOULD
SEE SOME MODEST PREFRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SWINGING
SOUTH FROM CANADA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO REGION FROM
THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY TURN EASTERLY AND UPSLOPE
INTO THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS AND BEARTOOTHS ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECENT FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UP FROM THE CRAZIES/LITTLE BELTS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PRYORS/BIG HORNS. THIS APPEARS TO BE A
QUICK HIT AND OUT SYSTEM AS FORCING DIMINISHES QUICKLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING. TWO TO FOUR INCHES LOOK TYPICAL WEST OF A ROUNDUP TO
BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN LINE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OR LESS TO THE
EAST. NORTHEAST FACING FOOTHILLS COULD SEE THREE TO SIX INCHES AS
COULD SOME WEST FACING SLOPES EARLIER IN THE EVENT DUE TO
OROGRAPHICS. OTHERWISE...I DONT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING
PROGGED FROM ANY OF THE MODELS FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. MUCH OF THE
FORCING IS INDUCED BY THE 500MB HEIGHT FALLS PROCESS.
ALSO...THANKFULLY SREF PROGGS INDICATE RATHER SHALLOW DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYERS AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY TRENDS
THAT DEVELOP. FROM ALL THE SNOW WE HAVE HAD...ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION WILL MAKE SIDE ROADS QUITE DIFFICULT TO DEAL WITH. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A WARMING TREND FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND UPPER TROFINESS CONTINUE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO 20S MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FLOPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. BY THURSDAY STRONG ZONAL
FLOW WILL PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL CANADA WITH WEAK ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER MONTANA. A DOWNSLOPE SURFACE PATTERN STRENGTHENS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD DRIVE TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AND MAY ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
A DEVELOPING CONCERN WITH THE ANTICIPATED WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND ICE JAM FORMATION. AS TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO
THE MID 40S WILL SEE THE WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK MELT. THE GROUND IS
FROZEN IN MOST AREAS THUS THIS WATER WILL RUNOFF AND POND AS
OPPOSED TO SOAKING INTO THE GROUND. CANT RULE OUT SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS IF
THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS HOLD. ONCE THIS WATER GETS INTO
LARGER STREAMS AND RIVERS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS AND LOCAL
FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS IS THE
OPPORTUNITY TO GET OUT AND ENSURE LIVESTOCK AND EQUIPMENT ARE AWAY
FROM FLOOD PRONE AREAS AND TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THIS
POTENTIAL RUNOFF. IN URBAN AREAS SUCH AS BILLINGS...TRY TO CLEAR
STORM DRAINS THAT ARE PLUGGED WITH SNOW TO ALLOW RUNOFF TO DRAIN
EFFECTIVELY AND NOT BACK UP ACROSS ROADWAYS OR INTO BASEMENTS.
CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WE ARE A BIT
CONCERNED ABOUT CEILINGS LOWERING BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PUSH. HOWEVER...MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING...SO CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW AND NOT ENOUGH FOR US TO
CARRY SUB-VFR CEILINGS IN AREA TAFS AT THIS POINT. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 020/027 015/020 007/021 013/029 017/035 023/040 028/044
00/E 47/S 32/J 21/B 00/U 00/N 11/B
LVM 022/037 024/031 012/035 020/036 019/039 024/043 027/046
01/N 37/S 42/J 21/B 00/U 00/N 11/N
HDN 001/025 010/021 003/021 007/029 013/034 015/040 019/041
00/E 26/S 42/J 20/B 00/B 00/U 11/B
MLS 907/016 004/014 903/016 005/024 011/033 017/035 021/040
01/M 23/S 11/B 11/B 00/B 00/U 11/U
4BQ 003/024 008/019 003/022 009/028 012/035 016/038 020/041
00/E 04/S 21/B 11/B 00/B 00/U 00/B
BHK 909/015 002/013 909/015 005/023 010/032 016/035 021/040
02/S 23/S 10/B 00/B 00/B 00/U 11/B
SHR 905/031 014/025 006/026 011/031 013/036 017/041 022/043
00/B 15/S 52/J 21/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
606 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH JUST MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA TO START OFF
THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
6 PM UPDATE...
A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION
THROUGH 5Z.
LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROG HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON BOTH THE ERIE
BAND AND THE ONTARIO BAND CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT, WE PROJECT THE ERIE BAND TO DROP
ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW BETWEEN 23Z AND 5Z, BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUMS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
1 PM UPDATE...
SFC TROF IS WORKING ITS WAY THRU CWA THIS AFTN WITH A BAND OF SNOW
AND FURTHER FALLING TEMPS ACCOMPANYING IT. MOISTURE FM LK ERIE
SNOWBAND FM THIS MRNG HAS DISCONNECTED ITSELF FM LAKE AND IS CAUSING
MODERATE-HVY SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SRN TIER. EXPECT LGT SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR ALL ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS UNTIL BNDRY
PUSHES THRU AND WINDS SETTLE BACK OUT FM THE SW.
FOR TONIGHT CWA WL BE ON FRINGES OF INTENSE LK EFFECT BANDS
STREAMING FM ONTARIO AND ERIE. FLOW LOOKS TO BE ALIGNED FM 260-265
DIRECTION AND THIS MAY BRING SOME SCTD SNOW SHOWERS TO ERN FINGER
LKS LOCALES BUT WL LKLY KEEP LK ONTARIO BAND NORTH OF NRN ONEIDA
CNTY. ANY LITTLE WAFFLING IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAND MAY DIP INTO
FAR NRN SXNS OF CNTY HWVR NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCH
OVRNGT FOR THE SRN TUG HILL PLATEAU.
QUESTION CNTRS ARND HOW FAR INLAND LK ERIE BAND CAN EXTEND. LATEST
HIRES MODELS SUGGEST IT WL PRESS AS FAR EAST AS THE WRN CATS AND
THUS INDICATE CHC POPS INTO OTSEGO CNTY ARND 05Z BFR BRINGING SNOWS
BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST AGAIN. AT MOST MAY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMS TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG ROUTE 20 DUE TO LK ERIE
BAND.
WINDS WL RANGE FM 10-15KTS TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RMNS TIGHT.
TEMPS WL BE FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WL PRODUCE ISOLD WIND CHILL VALUES APPCHG
-15F IN STEUBEN CNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE WRN CATS. HWVR NOT
EXPECTING THESE TO BE LONG ENUF OR WIDESPREAD ENUF TO JUSTIFY
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BE BUILDING INTO MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY PUSHING
LK BAND FURTHER AND FURTHER NORTH. SECONDARY COLD SURGE OVRNGT WL
HELP DROP TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT AND ONLY ALLOW HIGHS
TOMORROW TO RISE INTO THE TEENS. SKIES CLEAR FM SOUTH TO NORTH UNDER
BUILDING SFC HIGH.
QUIET WX IS EXPECTED SAT NGT WITH HIPRES BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST. TEMPS WL SLOWLY DROP OFF TOMORROW NGT BFR BEGINNING TO RISE
ACRS THE WEST AFT 06Z. HV GONE WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND AS WSW H8
FLOW DRAWS IN WRMR H8 TEMPS DRG THE OVRNGT.
SUNDAY WL FEATURE INCREASING CLDS AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHD OF
NEXT SFC BNDRY. CAN SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FRCG MUCH BFR 06Z
MONDAY TO JUSTIFY CHC POPS WITH UPGLIDE INCREASING AFT THIS TIME.
WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS BNDRY WORKS ITS WAY THRU
CWA DRG THE AFTN AND CLASHES WITH WV COMING UP FM THE SRN STREAM.
HOW MUCH OF A SNOW EVENT THIS MAY BE RMNS UP IN THE AIR WITH GFS
BEING FARTHEST OFFSHORE VS OTHER MODELS. NAM/CMC/EURO ALL SHOWING
SOME HINTS OF A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW DRG THE DAY ON MONDAY.
MAXES ON MONDAY WL APPCH FRZG ACRS NEPA AND MAY RESULT IN MIXED PCPN
EVENT DRG THE AFTN HRS BUT STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO NARROW DOWN THE
DETAILS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD FORESEEN...WITH ARCTIC HIGH YIELDING COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY ON...FOLLOWED BY TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY VIA SOUTHWEST FLOW.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE DROPPED FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY...AND THEN IT WILL BUILD
OVER OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BRIEF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING
NORTHERLY AND THUS DECREASING FETCH...ALONG AND SHALLOWNESS AND
DRYNESS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WILL BE MINOR AT BEST. LOWS IN
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
FEW SPOTS GETTING BELOW ZERO /ESPECIALLY NORTHERN REACHES OF
ONEIDA AND OTSEGO COUNTIES/. DURING TUESDAY ITSELF...A DRY ARCTIC DAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A FLURRY OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE IN
THE FINGER LAKES REGION...IN ONE OF THOSE AIR MASSES WHERE ANY
CLOUD WILL BE PUTTING OUT A FEW DENDRITES /MOST OF WHICH WILL DRY
UP ON THE WAY TO THE GROUND/.
THE HIGH WEAKENS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...YET MAINTAINS AT LEAST A
RIDGE...KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET. PRIOR RUN OF ECMWF TRIED TO
BRING A COASTAL LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT SOME OF THE
REGION TOWARDS THURSDAY...BUT 12Z RUN NOW JOINS THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS IN KEEPING IT WELL OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY RIDGE
STAYING IN CHARGE OF OUR WEATHER. AT THIS TIME WE ARE FIGURING ON
HIGHS IN THE 20S WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGY NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS THE ITH TERMINAL, WHERE A BAND OF SNOW OFF OF LAKE
ERIE WILL CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 04Z OR 05Z.
VISIBILITIES WILL MAINLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3SM AND 6SM. A BRIEF
1SM TO 2SM VISIBILITY IS LIKELY, BUT THE SHORT DURATION MAY BE TOO
TOUGH TO CATCH WITH A TEMPO GROUP.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR.
SUN NGT THRU MON NGT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SN.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...KAH/MLJ/PVF
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
708 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND REMAINS AT
LEAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY MONDAY
DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...
CLEAR CONDITIONS HAD DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AHEAD OF
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. A MORE NOTICEABLE 700MB
SHORTWAVE AS FORECAST BY THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
130KT 300MB JET PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH OF THE AIR MASS WILL
BE DRY...WITH ESSENTIALLY ONLY MOISTURE AROUND 300MB AS BUFR
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
A LARGE VOLUME AND K INDICES FALLING INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO. ALREADY UPSTREAM...IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE AND JET APPROACH...WATER VAPOR AND STANDARD IR SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW STRANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. GFS UPPER-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY...THE CANADIAN CLOUD
COVER MODEL...AND HRRR SHORT-TERM CLOUD COVER GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...LEAST CONFIDENT AND
FOR THE SHORTEST TIME TOWARD THE TRIAD AND MORE CONFIDENT AND FOR A
LONGER AMOUNT OF TIME AS ONE GOES SOUTHEAST. LATE TONIGHT...EVEN THE
MOISTURE ALOFT DRIES WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AND AS THE JET ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN.
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE NORTHWEST...AND THE WARMER MOS
GUIDANCE TOWARD KFAY...FOR LOWS OF 15 TO 20 WEST OF INTERSTATE
95...AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S RIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MIXING OVERNIGHT AS 850MB AND
925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35KT AND KEEP SOME WIND AT THE
SURFACE...ENOUGH THAT MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE MINIMUM WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
PARTICULARLY TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ...THOSE MINIMUM WIND CHILLS MAY
ONLY GET AS LOW AS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 10F DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE EXIT OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS TIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE 850MB AND 925MB WINDS OF 25 TO 35KT...BUT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY SUCH THAT THE GFS REALLY
DIMINISHES THE 925MB WINDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SATURDAY...LEAVING
THEM 5 TO 10KT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MIXING SATURDAY GFS AND NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SOME GUSTS
IN THE TEENS KNOTS WHICH SHOULD AGAIN DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON.
UNDER 850MB SUBSIDENCE AND THETA-E TROUGHING...AND K INDICES WELL
INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE FIGURES...THE AIR MASS IS DRY...AND DEW
POINTS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD GO
NEGATIVE SATURDAY. UNDER CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE THAT IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 64 AND INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF CIRRUS
ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS SOUTHWEST...BUT
MOS GUIDANCE IS CHILLY UNDER THE RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS AND
CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET...AND IS CONSIDERABLE REASONABLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP CENTRAL NC DRY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CLOUD THINGS UP BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO OVERCAST BY EVENING. MODELS CURRENTLY
PROGGING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW TO
ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0-6Z MONDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT WARMER DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL KEEP LOWS
ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIPIATION ALL LIQUID AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE
ALSO TRENDING WETTER AND WILL INCREASE QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE TO NEAR HALF OF AN INCH ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS
INDICATING BETWEEN A HALF OF AN INCH AND AN INCH OF RAIN IN SOME
SPOTS. TIMING DETAILS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN ARE STILL LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THE GFS BRINING PRECIP IN EARLIER MONDAY MORNING AND THE ECWMF
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S NW TO SE SUNDAY AND MODERATING
TO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
QUESTION OF WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS AT THAT TIME. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL EITHER BE WETTER AND ABOVE FREEZING OR DRIER AND
BELOW FREEZING DEPENDING ON THE SOLUTION. STAY TUNED FOR EVOLVING
DETAILS ON ANY P-TYPE OR BLACK ICE ISSUES FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...
THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNSETTLED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR NON-LIQUID P-TYPES.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE THE EXITING COAST LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND
POTENTIALLY A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND THE NORTHWARD EXTEND OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD KEEP
CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM. CLOSER TOWARDS EVENING...A WEDGE FRONT
BUILDS SOUTHWARD OUT OF A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPIATION
AS TEMPERATURES DROP TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS HAS
WET BULB TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY
00Z AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S EVERYWHERE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE LOWS RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY BELOW...THE CHANCES
FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOK GOOD...IF WE CAN GET
THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TEMPERATURES THERE ARE MARGINAL. THEREFORE
WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z ON
WEDNESDAY. QPF LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MOST PLACES SEEING
PROBABLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE WEDGE
SHARPENS UP AND THE TRIAD STRUGGLES TO GET OUT OF THE 30S. MEANWHILE
ALONG I-95 TEMP WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A STRONGER
COASTAL LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT
FOR SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION BUT THE SYSTEM PASSING SO FAR OFFSHORE
GIVE LOW CONFIDENCE TO WHETHER OR NOT PRECIPIATION WILL MOVE THIS
FAR NORTHWARD. WILL KEEP AS RAIN FOR NOW BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
FROZEN P-TYPES IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS
AROUND FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING WILL RISE TO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50
IN THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL END THURSDAY
EVENING AND SKIES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FOR FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM FRIDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO/OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT
PERIOD OF FZRA AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS SUN NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS SUN NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PENDLETON OR
939 PM PST WED JAN 7 2015
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...A QUIET NIGHT IS UNDERWAY OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
CONTINUED TO BUILD AND THIS HAS HELPED DEVELOP AN INVERSION OVER THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. AFTER PARTIAL CLEARING AND
IMPROVED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS RETURNED
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. HIGHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS ELLENSBURG, YAKIMA,
WALLA WALLA, PENDLETON AND HERMISTON HAVE DROPPED TO A HALF MILE
VISIBILITY OR LESS WHILE THE TRI-CITIES AND THE DALLES HAVE LOW
OVERCAST AT AROUND 1000 FEET. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENTS, EXPECT THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID
TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG MOVING
SOUTH FROM THE COLUMBIA GORGE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION AND HAVE PATTERNED THE UPDATE ON THAT. HAVE ADJUSTED A FEW
TEMPERATURES BOTH UP AND DOWN TO REFLECT THE EARLY EVENING TRENDS.
FORECAST UPDATE ALREADY OUT. PERRY
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAVE RETURNED TO THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS AND WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT KRDM AND KBDN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KYKM, KALW AND KPDT HAVE
ALL DROPPED TO 1/4SM WITH CIGS OF 100-200 FEET AND EXPECT THAT WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY BRIEF MINOR IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 19Z-20Z TOMORROW
WHEN CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO IFR LEVELS BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN
AGAIN AFTER 00Z. KPSC AND KDLS WILL HAVE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KRDM AND KBDN THROUGH
02Z TOMORROW EVENING WHEN LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH AND LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 400 PM PST WED JAN 7 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO CLAMP AN INVERSION DOWN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
BENEATH THE INVERSION. THE FOG WILL PRODUCE SOME POOR VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT SO WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.
ABOVE THE INVERSION SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND WEAKEN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH SPREADING MORE
CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS A SECOND SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH A BETTER SURGE
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT PACIFIC MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVEL 3000
TO 4000 FT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND 4000
TO 5000 FT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH DYNAMIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SNOW LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE 2000 TO 3500 FEET ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND 2500 TO 4500 FT IN EASTERN
OREGON WITH THE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS IN CENTRAL OREGON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL GIVE A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS, THE STRAWBERRY MOUNTAINS
AND THE ELKHORN MOUNTAINS. THE SHORT WAVE EXITS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A VERY STRONG RIDGE
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INLAND OVER THE INTERIOR
PACIFIC NORTHWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN OF PATCHY FOG IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN. POLAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 29 36 31 35 / 10 10 0 10
ALW 31 37 31 36 / 10 10 0 10
PSC 32 40 32 38 / 10 10 0 10
YKM 30 37 30 36 / 10 10 0 10
HRI 32 40 30 38 / 10 10 0 10
ELN 30 37 30 35 / 10 10 0 10
RDM 27 47 28 37 / 0 0 0 10
LGD 30 46 32 39 / 0 0 0 10
GCD 31 47 31 42 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 34 42 35 40 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST THURSDAY
ORZ041-044-507-508-510.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST THURSDAY WAZ024-026>029-521.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
83/99/83
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
830 PM PST WED JAN 7 2015
.UPDATE...A QUIET NIGHT IS UNDERWAY OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
CONTINUED TO BUILD AND THIS HAS HELPED DEVELOP AN INVERSION OVER THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. AFTER PARTIAL CLEARING AND
IMPROVED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS RETURNED
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. HIGHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS ELLENSBURG, YAKIMA,
WALLA WALLA, PENDLETON AND HERMISTON HAVE DROPPED TO A HALF MILE
VISIBILITY OR LESS WHILE THE TRI-CITIES AND THE DALLES HAVE LOW
OVERCAST AT AROUND 1000 FEET. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENTS, EXPECT THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID
TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG MOVING
SOUTH FROM THE COLUMBIA GORGE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION AND HAVE PATTERNED THE UPDATE ON THAT. HAVE ADJUSTED A FEW
TEMPERATURES BOTH UP AND DOWN TO REFLECT THE EARLY EVENING TRENDS.
FORECAST UPDATE ALREADY OUT. PERRY
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 400 PM PST WED JAN 7 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO CLAMP AN INVERSION DOWN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
BENEATH THE INVERSION. THE FOG WILL PRODUCE SOME POOR VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT SO WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.
ABOVE THE INVERSION SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND WEAKEN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH SPREADING MORE
CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS A SECOND SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH A BETTER SURGE
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT PACIFIC MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVEL 3000
TO 4000 FT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND 4000
TO 5000 FT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH DYNAMIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SNOW LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE 2000 TO 3500 FEET ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND 2500 TO 4500 FT IN EASTERN
OREGON WITH THE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS IN CENTRAL OREGON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL GIVE A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS, THE STRAWBERRY MOUNTAINS
AND THE ELKHORN MOUNTAINS. THE SHORT WAVE EXITS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A VERY STRONG RIDGE
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INLAND OVER THE INTERIOR
PACIFIC NORTHWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN OF PATCHY FOG IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN. POLAN
AVIATION...00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT KBDN AND KRDM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ELSEWHERE AREAS
OF IFR AND SOME LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND
FOG.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 2340Z THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AREAS
OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
OREGON/WASHINGTON AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER YAKIMA VALLEY SOUTH OF
UNION GAP AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER WEST OF BOARDMAN AND IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. DOWNSLOPE WIND THIS AFTERNOON ERODED
AND EVAPORATED THE BOUNDARIES OF THE STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH FACING
SLOPES OF THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
THIS EVENING, WITHIN 2 TO 4 HOURS OF SUNDOWN, THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN TERMS OF INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE AND
WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY. AS SUCH
WIDESPREAD IFR AND SOME LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR AT KDLS, KYKM,
KPSC, KALW AND KPDT DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THESE TAF SITES THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POLAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 29 36 31 35 / 10 10 0 10
ALW 31 37 31 36 / 10 10 0 10
PSC 32 40 32 38 / 10 10 0 10
YKM 30 37 30 36 / 10 10 0 10
HRI 32 40 30 38 / 10 10 0 10
ELN 30 37 30 35 / 10 10 0 10
RDM 27 47 28 37 / 0 0 0 10
LGD 30 46 32 39 / 0 0 0 10
GCD 31 47 31 42 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 34 42 35 40 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST THURSDAY
ORZ041-044-507-508-510.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST THURSDAY WAZ024-026>029-521.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
83/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1122 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 06
UTC. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
A LOW STRATUS BKN-OVC DECK WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WE HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KPVW AND KLBB ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. GUSTY SW SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LIGHT THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH THE FROPA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015/
AVIATION...
A BROKEN DECK OF LOW MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS HAS SPREAD BACK INTO BOTH
KLBB AND KPVW THIS MORNING...AFTER THE EARLIER 4000 FOOT AGL LAYER
BROKE AWAY AND DIMINISHED TO THE NORTHEAST. LATEST HRRR SHORT TERM
CEILING FORECASTS GIVE A REASONABLE SOLUTION MAINTAINING A DECK IN
THE VICINITY BOTH OF KPVW AND KLBB UNTIL 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE LAYER
FINALLY DISSIPATES. THE HRRR DOES NOT APPEAR TO THREATEN KCDS WITH
THIS LAYER. SO WE WILL HOLD ON TO AN APPROXIMATE 1600-1700 FOOT
AGL LAYER AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW EARLY...WITH VFR DOMINATING
THEREAFTER. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MUCH OF TODAY WILL EASE LATER
IN THE DAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES JUST IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLICE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. WE RETAINED PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES
STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS. THERE ALSO IS A LOW
RISK OF CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BY THE END OF THE TAF...
BUT BELOW MENTIONABLE LIMITS FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015/
SHORT TERM...
A CONSIDERABLY WARMER...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. STILL SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR AND MOISTURE TO
SCOUR OUT EARLY TODAY...BUT END RESULTS SHOULD FAVOR THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS HELPING TO MAXIMIZE
DOWNSLOPE EFFECT. WE HAVE TRENDED WARMER...NOT DISSIMILAR TO THE
PAST TWO WARM DAYS THIS WEEK MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO OVERPLAY SNOW COVER ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND PROBABLY PART OF
THE REASON WARMING IS UNDERDONE. NOT THAT COLD AIR WILL BE FAR
AWAY HOWEVER...AS YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHALLOW COLD FRONTS
WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...AND PROBABLY EVEN ENTER OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...MUCH COLDER AIR
ONCE MORE WILL INVADE THIS EVENING. THIS ALSO WILL LEAD TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTENING AGAIN OVERNIGHT FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES...THOUGH RECENT SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER OR FURTHER
SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. LIKEWISE...WE
HAVE TRENDED MENTION OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS EITHER OR BOTH
LATER AND FURTHER SOUTH. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY CONTINUE TO DWINDLE
WITH TRENDS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A QUICKER PUNCH OF DRY AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY
PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL ATTEMPT TO SUPPLY AN
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER MOISTURE...POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO GENERATE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IF SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES CAN TAKE
PLACE. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL BE IN PLAY SOMETIME EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT...BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE IF
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL EXISTS TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE
THAN VIRGA. LIFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS NEARER THE UPPER LOW AND ANY LINGERING
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. COULD STILL SEE SOME FLURRIES MAKE THEIR
WAY TO THE GROUND FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE ANOTHER DIVE AFTER A WARMER THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT GET
ABOVE FREEZING IF LOW STRATUS BREAKS BY MID MORNING.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE SHAPE INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE FILLING
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM MEXICO...COMBINING WITH VEERING
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE ALOFT...DRY WEATHER STILL
APPEARS IN THE OFFING THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE WEEKEND WITH
THE BRUNT OF THE RESULTING LIFT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH A WARMUP WILL BE IN STORE COMPARED TO FRIDAY...CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND WINDS SOURCING SOME REMAINING
COOL AIR LEFT BEHIND BY THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PUT A
DAMPER ON IT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40. SUNDAY ON THE
OTHER HAND LOOKS TO PROMISE A RETURN TO JUST BELOW NORMAL READINGS
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS
AND LIKELY GREATER INSOLATION ARE REALIZED.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER COOLDOWN TO THE SOUTH PLAINS. AN UPPER
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND UPPER GREAT
BASIN WILL SPELL THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING AND EXTENDING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE. THE USUALLY QUICKER
GFS IN THIS TIME PERIOD HAS BEGUN TO PICK UP THE PACE...MESHING WITH
THE FACT THAT EACH SOLUTION HAS BEEN EXHIBITING AN INCREASE IN
STRENGTH AND COUPLING OF BOTH THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS IN
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE COLD AIR FROM THE
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK PLUNGE LIKELY REMAINING IN PLACE...WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW WHILE INCLUDING A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 47 16 28 14 38 / 0 10 10 10 0
TULIA 51 18 29 16 40 / 0 10 10 0 0
PLAINVIEW 50 20 29 17 40 / 0 10 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 49 20 29 17 39 / 0 10 10 0 0
LUBBOCK 51 21 29 18 39 / 0 10 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 46 22 29 17 38 / 0 10 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 46 22 29 17 38 / 0 10 20 0 10
CHILDRESS 50 21 30 17 37 / 0 0 10 0 0
SPUR 48 22 30 17 36 / 0 10 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 46 23 30 19 35 / 0 10 20 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
.AVIATION...
A BROKEN DECK OF LOW MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS HAS SPREAD BACK INTO BOTH
KLBB AND KPVW THIS MORNING...AFTER THE EARLIER 4000 FOOT AGL LAYER
BROKE AWAY AND DIMINISHED TO THE NORTHEAST. LATEST HRRR SHORT TERM
CEILING FORECASTS GIVE A REASONABLE SOLUTION MAINTAINING A DECK IN
THE VICINITY BOTH OF KPVW AND KLBB UNTIL 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE LAYER
FINALLY DISSIPATES. THE HRRR DOES NOT APPEAR TO THREATEN KCDS WITH
THIS LAYER. SO WE WILL HOLD ON TO AN APPROXIMATE 1600-1700 FOOT
AGL LAYER AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW EARLY...WITH VFR DOMINATING
THEREAFTER. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MUCH OF TODAY WILL EASE LATER
IN THE DAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES JUST IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLICE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. WE RETAINED PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES
STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS. THERE ALSO IS A LOW
RISK OF CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BY THE END OF THE TAF...
BUT BELOW MENTIONABLE LIMITS FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015/
SHORT TERM...
A CONSIDERABLY WARMER...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. STILL SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR AND MOISTURE TO
SCOUR OUT EARLY TODAY...BUT END RESULTS SHOULD FAVOR THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS HELPING TO MAXIMIZE
DOWNSLOPE EFFECT. WE HAVE TRENDED WARMER...NOT DISSIMILAR TO THE
PAST TWO WARM DAYS THIS WEEK MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO OVERPLAY SNOW COVER ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND PROBABLY PART OF
THE REASON WARMING IS UNDERDONE. NOT THAT COLD AIR WILL BE FAR
AWAY HOWEVER...AS YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHALLOW COLD FRONTS
WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...AND PROBABLY EVEN ENTER OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...MUCH COLDER AIR
ONCE MORE WILL INVADE THIS EVENING. THIS ALSO WILL LEAD TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTENING AGAIN OVERNIGHT FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES...THOUGH RECENT SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER OR FURTHER
SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. LIKEWISE...WE
HAVE TRENDED MENTION OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS EITHER OR BOTH
LATER AND FURTHER SOUTH. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY CONTINUE TO DWINDLE
WITH TRENDS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A QUICKER PUNCH OF DRY AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY
PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL ATTEMPT TO SUPPLY AN
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER MOISTURE...POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO GENERATE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IF SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES CAN TAKE
PLACE. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL BE IN PLAY SOMETIME EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT...BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE IF
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL EXISTS TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE
THAN VIRGA. LIFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS NEARER THE UPPER LOW AND ANY LINGERING
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. COULD STILL SEE SOME FLURRIES MAKE THEIR
WAY TO THE GROUND FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE ANOTHER DIVE AFTER A WARMER THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT GET
ABOVE FREEZING IF LOW STRATUS BREAKS BY MID MORNING.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE SHAPE INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE FILLING
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM MEXICO...COMBINING WITH VEERING
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE ALOFT...DRY WEATHER STILL
APPEARS IN THE OFFING THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE WEEKEND WITH
THE BRUNT OF THE RESULTING LIFT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH A WARMUP WILL BE IN STORE COMPARED TO FRIDAY...CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND WINDS SOURCING SOME REMAINING
COOL AIR LEFT BEHIND BY THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PUT A
DAMPER ON IT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40. SUNDAY ON THE
OTHER HAND LOOKS TO PROMISE A RETURN TO JUST BELOW NORMAL READINGS
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS
AND LIKELY GREATER INSOLATION ARE REALIZED.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER COOLDOWN TO THE SOUTH PLAINS. AN UPPER
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND UPPER GREAT
BASIN WILL SPELL THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING AND EXTENDING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE. THE USUALLY QUICKER
GFS IN THIS TIME PERIOD HAS BEGUN TO PICK UP THE PACE...MESHING WITH
THE FACT THAT EACH SOLUTION HAS BEEN EXHIBITING AN INCREASE IN
STRENGTH AND COUPLING OF BOTH THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS IN
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE COLD AIR FROM THE
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK PLUNGE LIKELY REMAINING IN PLACE...WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW WHILE INCLUDING A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 47 16 28 14 38 / 0 10 10 10 0
TULIA 51 18 29 16 40 / 0 10 10 0 0
PLAINVIEW 50 20 29 17 40 / 0 10 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 49 20 29 17 39 / 0 10 10 0 0
LUBBOCK 51 21 29 18 39 / 0 10 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 46 22 29 17 38 / 0 10 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 46 22 29 17 38 / 0 10 20 0 10
CHILDRESS 50 21 30 17 37 / 0 0 10 0 0
SPUR 48 22 30 17 36 / 0 10 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 46 23 30 19 35 / 0 10 20 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1140 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Cloud deck has been eroding very slowly from e to w and is finally
near MAF. Based on slower erosion have extended the duration of low
clouds a few more hrs into Thur AM. Lower dwpnts continue to move
into the area and thus fog concerns are diminished at TAF sites. SE
winds Thur then NW Thur evening ahead of yet another Arctic surge.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2015/
UPDATE...
We have extended the freezing fog advisory to 8:00 AM CST/7:00 AM
MST. Derived RUC sounding data also suggests that the freezing fog
and light freezing drizzle could extend into Culberson
County...towards the I20/I10 split. Thus, we have added Culberson
County to the advisory as well. We will be making some slight
adjustments to the overnight low temperatures as some areas have
began to lose some of their low clouds...especially over the
northern portions of the Permian Basin and over the Rolling
Plains.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2015/
UPDATE...
The High Wind Warning and the Wind Advisory have been allowed to
expire as wind speeds associated with the cold front moving
through the area have decreased to below key thresholds. The
Freezing Fog Advisory remains in effect for the Guadalupe
Mountains and for Eddy County until 10 pm MST. Conditions will be
evaluated over the next hour to determine if this advisory needs
to be extended a few hours. Drier air has moved into the eastern
portions of Eddy County. This drier air would certainly suggests
an end of the freezing precipitation if is continues to move
farther westward and southward into the area.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A broad upper level trough is over the eastern half of the conus
while upper ridging is over the western conus with an upper low just
off the coast of Mexico south of California. The cold front has
made it through most of the CWA this afternoon with gusty northeast
winds behind it. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe
Mountains with a Wind Advisory in effect for the Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor area 8 pm MST. Other locations are expected to
be close to advisory level criteria. There is a chance of patchy
light drizzle or freezing drizzle this afternoon and evening across
parts of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe and Davis and Apache
Mountains, the Upper Trans Pecos, and the Van Horn area.
Temperatures today will not get above the 30s for the Permian Basin
with some locations not getting above freezing. Strong winds this
afternoon and early evening will allow for wind chills to get down
into the teens and 20s for many locations. Temperatures tonight
will plummet into the teens and 20s for the CWA except along the Rio
Grande where temperatures will be in the low 30s.
As the surface high moves east, surface winds will become
southwesterly on Thursday causing temperatures to warm up into the
40s and 50s across the area. The upper low over the coast of Mexico
will meander toward the region bringing in mid-level moisture.
Precipitation may develop across the Big Bend area on Thursday as a
result. The precipitation type will depend on how warm temperatures
get. The precipitation may initially start out as freezing rain
possibly followed by rain as the temperatures warm up during the
afternoon.
A shortwave/trough will move around the broad upper trough across
the eastern conus and Upper Midwest bringing a cold front into the
area Thursday night/Friday morning. Precipitation will be possible
along and behind this front. The precipitation type will likely
start out as a freezing rain/sleet mixture as the NAM forecast
soundings are indicating an elevated warm layer. Then the
precipitation will possibly change over to snow as temperatures
throughout the column of air cool to below freezing. Afternoon
temperatures on Friday will cool to near or below freezing for many
locations in the CWA. At this time, any frozen precipitation
amounts appear to be very light. As the upper low moves near the
Rio Grande, precipitation amounts will increase across areas mainly
south of the Pecos River beginning Friday night/Saturday morning
with the Big Bend area appearing to receive the greatest amount of
precipitation. Temperatures in this area will be near or below
freezing, so a wintry mix is likely. The precipitation may move
northward across the Lower Trans Pecos and the southern Permian
Basin Saturday afternoon as the upper low moves over the area.
Temperatures across these areas will likely warm up into the mid to
upper 30s as surface winds become southerly so precipitation will
likely be in the form of rain with a wintry mix possible in the
higher elevations of the Davis and Chisos Mountains.
The models show various troughs moving toward the region starting
next week with another cold front moving through the area next
Monday. The GFS and ECMWF show different solutions so do not have
much confidence in the extended part of the forecast. Both models
show precipitation across the area next week with more wintry
precipitation possible but don`t have much confidence in placement,
timing, or precipitation type at this time.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM MST Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
County.
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ Thursday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor.
&&
$$
44
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1047 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2015
.UPDATE...
We have extended the freezing fog advisory to 8:00 AM CST/7:00 AM
MST. Derived RUC sounding data also suggests that the freezing fog
and light freezing drizzle could extend into Culberson
County...towards the I20/I10 split. Thus, we have added Culberson
County to the advisory as well. We will be making some slight
adjustments to the overnight low temperatures as some areas have
began to lose some of their low clouds...especially over the
northern portions of the Permian Basin and over the Rolling
Plains.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2015/
UPDATE...
The High Wind Warning and the Wind Advisory have been allowed to
expire as wind speeds associated with the cold front moving
through the area have decreased to below key thresholds. The
Freezing Fog Advisory remains in effect for the Guadalupe
Mountains and for Eddy County until 10 pm MST. Conditions will be
evaluated over the next hour to determine if this advisory needs
to be extended a few hours. Drier air has moved into the eastern
portions of Eddy County. This drier air would certainly suggests
an end of the freezing precipitation if is continues to move
farther westward and southward into the area.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A broad upper level trough is over the eastern half of the conus
while upper ridging is over the western conus with an upper low just
off the coast of Mexico south of California. The cold front has
made it through most of the CWA this afternoon with gusty northeast
winds behind it. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe
Mountains with a Wind Advisory in effect for the Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor area 8 pm MST. Other locations are expected to
be close to advisory level criteria. There is a chance of patchy
light drizzle or freezing drizzle this afternoon and evening across
parts of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe and Davis and Apache
Mountains, the Upper Trans Pecos, and the Van Horn area.
Temperatures today will not get above the 30s for the Permian Basin
with some locations not getting above freezing. Strong winds this
afternoon and early evening will allow for wind chills to get down
into the teens and 20s for many locations. Temperatures tonight
will plummet into the teens and 20s for the CWA except along the Rio
Grande where temperatures will be in the low 30s.
As the surface high moves east, surface winds will become
southwesterly on Thursday causing temperatures to warm up into the
40s and 50s across the area. The upper low over the coast of Mexico
will meander toward the region bringing in mid-level moisture.
Precipitation may develop across the Big Bend area on Thursday as a
result. The precipitation type will depend on how warm temperatures
get. The precipitation may initially start out as freezing rain
possibly followed by rain as the temperatures warm up during the
afternoon.
A shortwave/trough will move around the broad upper trough across
the eastern conus and Upper Midwest bringing a cold front into the
area Thursday night/Friday morning. Precipitation will be possible
along and behind this front. The precipitation type will likely
start out as a freezing rain/sleet mixture as the NAM forecast
soundings are indicating an elevated warm layer. Then the
precipitation will possibly change over to snow as temperatures
throughout the column of air cool to below freezing. Afternoon
temperatures on Friday will cool to near or below freezing for many
locations in the CWA. At this time, any frozen precipitation
amounts appear to be very light. As the upper low moves near the
Rio Grande, precipitation amounts will increase across areas mainly
south of the Pecos River beginning Friday night/Saturday morning
with the Big Bend area appearing to receive the greatest amount of
precipitation. Temperatures in this area will be near or below
freezing, so a wintry mix is likely. The precipitation may move
northward across the Lower Trans Pecos and the southern Permian
Basin Saturday afternoon as the upper low moves over the area.
Temperatures across these areas will likely warm up into the mid to
upper 30s as surface winds become southerly so precipitation will
likely be in the form of rain with a wintry mix possible in the
higher elevations of the Davis and Chisos Mountains.
The models show various troughs moving toward the region starting
next week with another cold front moving through the area next
Monday. The GFS and ECMWF show different solutions so do not have
much confidence in the extended part of the forecast. Both models
show precipitation across the area next week with more wintry
precipitation possible but don`t have much confidence in placement,
timing, or precipitation type at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 17 43 23 30 / 10 10 20 10
BIG SPRING TX 17 44 23 30 / 10 10 20 20
CARLSBAD NM 22 47 29 33 / 10 10 20 20
DRYDEN TX 26 43 31 39 / 10 10 10 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 22 49 28 35 / 10 10 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 18 42 27 30 / 10 10 10 20
HOBBS NM 19 43 22 30 / 10 10 20 10
MARFA TX 16 47 26 33 / 10 10 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 17 43 24 30 / 10 10 20 20
ODESSA TX 18 43 24 30 / 10 10 20 20
WINK TX 21 45 29 33 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM MST Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
County.
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ Thursday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor.
&&
$$
49/03
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WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
358 AM PST FRI JAN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Low clouds and fog under high pressure will linger through Friday.
A series of upper level disturbances Saturday through early next
week will bring the next chance of precipitation with light snow
possible for some valley locations.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...A highly meridional rideg over the region
today will flatten into a westerly flow allowing the pattern to
become more progressive. However...this activity aloft will have
little impact on sensible weather as the air mass will remain
decoupled with a strong low level inversion locking in the
stagnant boundary layer in the Columbia Basin. Some relief from
the low clouds and fog has occurred over the eastern basin
overnight with a shot of dry Canadian continental air filtering
in through the Purcell trench. The easterly gradient driving this
invasion will slacken once again today and set up favorable
conditions for a return of low clouds to much of the region...but
less fog potential today with drier air at the surface. Mainly
patchy fog will exist today in wind sheltered locations and near
water courses. Otherwise a seasonably cool day and overnight
period is expected with thick low clouds in the deeper basin and
increasing low clouds again over the higher basin locations...with
perhaps some filtered sun in the morning before stratus thickens
up again.
Saturday...Latest models are all in agreement in bringing in a
shot of deeper moisture with a weak short wave transit on
Saturday. Dynamic support is sparse and nebulous with this
feature but model soundings suggest near saturation of the air
mass below 700 mb during the afternoon with weak isentropic ascent
over the eastern half of the forecast area. While not a big deal
as far as precipitation potential...in the past these weak deep
winter low level isentropic events have been known to cause
trouble with unexpected light snow accumulations (on the order of
a quarter to half an inch or so) causing slippery road
conditions. While not a sure bet and confidence is low that
anything will actually occur...there is ample justification to at
least mention a chance of light snow Saturday afternoon over much
of the eastern forecast area. /Fugazzi
Saturday night through Monday night: The upper level ridge will weaken
and several weak impulses will track through the region bringing
spotty light precipitation. This is going to be a messy pattern to
track with numerous areas of spotty light precipitation falling in
the form of rain, snow, sleet, and perhaps brief freezing rain.
Amounts will be too light to classify this as a winter storm but a
nuisance to travel is a strong possibility anywhere a few tenths
of snow or light ice may fall. There has a been a shift northward
with these weak impulses which also includes energy coming from
the northern branch in Canada so just about every location carries
some mention of precipitation with the most consistent message
continuing to be the Idaho Panhandle and Blue Mtns. For the
multiple day period, we are looking for the potential for 1-3
inches of snow in the mountains and generally less than an inch in
most lowlands. We are also monitoring the potential for a wintry
mix of sleet or freezing rain in the southwestern Basin, Wenatchee
Area, and valleys of southern Chelan County. Models are not
handling thermal profiles particularly well right now and with
spotty precipitation expected in these areas, confidence regarding
details are low at this point.
Tuesday through Thursday: High pressure will rebound delivering
another drying trend and widespread fog and low clouds. Without
any more drying in the boundary layer after tonight, this
weekend`s precipitation will just add fuel to the fire and as
inversions strengthens, the low clouds will blanket most valleys.
The weather looks to turn active again for late week into the weekend
as the ridge shifts east and moist, mild southwest flow returns.
Exact timing of the initial precipitation still carries some
uncertainty with GFS still a day or so slower than the ECMWF.
Precip type will vary based on timing and how conditions evolve
leading up to the event but general pattern recognition suggest a
wintry mix transitioning to lowland rain. More details to follow
in the coming days. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A strong low level inversion underneath a ridge aloft
will continue to promote areas of IFR and LIFR stratus and fog
over the Columbia basin through the next 24 hours. An easterly
wind advecting dry air into the KGEG area and overnight even to
the KMWH area has allowed fog and low clouds to evaporate...while
this dry air has not penetrated to KPUW and KLWS where LIFR
conditions persist this morning. The gradient will slacken today
and allow stratus decks to migrate back north into the KGEG...KSFF
and KCOE area during the afternoon hours and probably approach the
KMWH TAF site as well. HRRR model forecast suggest the KPUW TAF
site may break out to VFR this afternoon but this is not supported
by boundary layer RH fields of other models. KEAT may be on the
edge of the stratus area this morning but the surface gradient
will promote banking of stratus against the Cascades overnight
tonight. Forecast for areas of IFR stratus in the Columbia Basin
is high confidence...but timing of conditions and severity at TAF
sites is low confidence after 18Z. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 32 27 34 28 34 29 / 10 10 30 30 20 20
Coeur d`Alene 33 25 33 27 34 28 / 10 10 30 40 20 30
Pullman 35 31 38 31 38 32 / 10 10 30 40 30 30
Lewiston 39 31 42 34 43 34 / 10 10 20 30 40 30
Colville 31 20 31 27 32 24 / 10 10 30 30 20 10
Sandpoint 31 22 33 23 33 25 / 10 10 30 30 30 20
Kellogg 33 28 34 29 35 28 / 0 10 40 50 30 30
Moses Lake 36 27 34 29 34 28 / 10 10 10 20 20 20
Wenatchee 34 28 34 29 34 30 / 10 10 10 20 20 30
Omak 37 24 30 27 33 25 / 10 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
820 PM PST Fri Jan 9 2015
.Synopsis...
Weak weather system will bring a slight chance of light showers to
the mountains of Shasta and Plumas counties late Sunday into Monday,
otherwise dry weather through next week. Chance of more widespread
precipitation next weekend.
&&
.Discussion...
Mid to high level clouds associated with elongating upper trough
along the coast will continue to spread across the area tonight as
the feature moves inland. This variable higher cloudiness will
impact fog develop in the Central Valley with visibilities likely to
bounce up and down later tonight into Saturday morning. Local WRF
and HRRR showing a few very light showers possible over the Sierra
Nevada later tonight as the trough moves through.
Another weak trough, near 135W is forecast to move through later
Saturday into early Sunday. Again, similar to the current wave, main
impact will be some mid to high level cloudiness with a slight
chance of light showers over the higher Sierra Nevada.
Strong WAA pumps upper ridge up near 135W Sunday as it progresses
towards the West Coast. Models continue to dig inside slider short
wave along leading edge of ridge across NE portions of California
late Sunday into Monday. Progs showing some light QPF possible over
the mountains of Shasta and Plumas Sunday night into Monday morning.
Dynamics then shift more crest eastward during the day Monday as the
system drops into the Great Basin.
Dry weather modeled through the remainder of the week with above
normal temperatures as high amplitude upper ridge is dominant
synoptic feature for Interior NorCal.
PCH
.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
High amplitude upper ridge begins to strengthen over the West Coast
on Tuesday and maintain its intensity through at least Thursday.
Temperatures will be above normal during the extended forecast as
the ridge lingers over the region. The ridge will weaken slightly
Friday into the weekend. The ECMWF and GEM models suggest that
another storm system could begin to creep into Shasta county area
sometime Friday. Although, the slower GFS holds off until late
Saturday into Saturday night. We have steered more toward the ECMWF
and introduced only slight POPs for localized areas in Shasta county
region for Friday.
All models are hinting at a pattern change for late next week and
into the weekend, but models are indifferent on timing and
strength. JClapp
&&
.Aviation...
Mnly VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs exc areas MVFR vsby in
Cntrl Vly in haze/mist with lcl IFR/LIFR poss in fog btwn 10z-18z
Sat.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1244 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2015
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. WILL MERELY FRESHEN UP THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE STILL STIRRING A BIT IN SEVERAL AREAS...THE SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE STILL PROJECTS A SLACKENING PRESS GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AS
1038 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN KY BY DAWN. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE NOT DROPPED TOO FAR INTO THE
TEENS AS OF YET TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM PERIOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS HIGH WILL USHER IN A VERY COLD AIR MASS WITH
PW OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. IN ADDITION...THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AND WITH DEW POINTS WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IF NOT BELOW
ZERO...A CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE. THE FORECAST MIN T IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO APPEAR ON TARGET. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. OVERALL..NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
HAS MOVED WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...LEAVING ITS BAND OF
DISSIPATING CLOUDS AND SNOW BEHIND. JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES
ARE FADING OUT OVER NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SUNSHINE...AND POSITION JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY...HAS BEEN
ENOUGH FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO MAKE IT TO FREEZING OR A TICK ABOVE
THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE NOW ON THE
WAY BACK DOWN. READINGS AT 2 PM RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST WHILE DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND NEAR 10 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH. WINDS
THROUGH THE AREA HAVE SWITCHED TO MORE WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH STILL POSSIBLE...WHILE A BIT MORE BEHIND THE
FRONT THE DIRECTION IS MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH RESIDENT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
AND RELAXES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION AS HEIGHTS REBOUND QUICKLY BY
SATURDAY EVENING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A DEVELOPING SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY OVER KENTUCKY. WITH THE GENERAL MODEL
AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE BRISK CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING AS
NORTHWEST WINDS BRING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES. THIS LATEST ARCTIC
SURGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THE LAST ONE WITH TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY DAWN SATURDAY.
WITH THE WINDS SETTLING AS THE COLDEST AIR MOVES IN WE WILL BE SPARED
THE WORST OF THE WIND CHILLS...THOUGH...THEY WILL LIKELY DROP TO
NEAR ZERO IN A FEW PLACES TONIGHT. THE CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST
PLACES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RETREATING HIGH SETS THE STAGE FOR
A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS WITH SOME MINOR TERRAIN BASED POINT
ADJUSTMENTS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. AS FOR POPS...ASIDE FROM SOME
LINGERING SINGLE DIGIT VALUES EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
EAST...HAVE BASICALLY ZEROED OUT POPS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...ALSO
IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT A WARM FRONT
ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS.
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION AT BAY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...BUT MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH PRECIPITATION MAKING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY EARLY EVENING. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY WITH
WITH CLOUDS MOVING ON IN...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF MUCH
INTO THE NIGHT. THUS...AS IT STANDS NOW...WE SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES (AND FREEZING
RAIN THREAT) STAYING JUST TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION...WE MAY SEE A
BIT OF SLEET MIX IN INITIALLY BEFORE SEEING JUST RAIN. THE SLEET
THREAT WILL BE PRIMARILY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ONGOING ON MONDAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXING WITH AND PERHAPS CHANGING TO
SNOW LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...DEEPER
MOISTURE IS DEPARTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS MONDAY...AND WE MAY
LOSE THE ICE IN THE CLOUDS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE DRIZZLE VERSES
SNOW. REGARDLESS...ANY SNOW SHOULD HAVE VERY LOW IMPACT ON THE AREA
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...LIMITING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE DEPARTS THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER A DRY PERIOD ON TUESDAY...A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF SNOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...BUT A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A BETTER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM
KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE VERY NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM. STILL LOTS OF DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE PRIMARILY
SNOW...ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND PRECIPITATION TYPE MIGHT BE DETERMINED BY PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY...WITH BETTER RATES YIELDING SNOW...AND LIGHTER RATES
BEING MORE RAIN OR DRIZZLE. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE SOUTHERN
TREND CONTINUES AS THIS COULD SHIFT PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA
IF IT CONTINUES. THE WEATHER WILL FINALLY QUIET DOWN BY LATE
THURSDAY WITH A QUIETER...BUT STILL CHILLY END TO THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WNW WINDS OF AROUND 7 KTS...WITH A FEW STRAY GUSTS TO AROUND
15 KTS...WILL LINGER IN THE FAR EAST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
103 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND PASS EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE: FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE UPDATE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
LATE NGT TO UNCHGD POSTED LOWS AT 7 AM. OTHERWISE...NO SIG CHGS
WERE NEEDED.
ORGNL DISC: SKIES HAD PARTLY CLEARED OUT THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOME. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME
ENHANCEMENT BACK ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION
W/THE PRE- FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS
BOUNDARY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SETTING OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF SNOW SQUALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. THE NAM AND HRRR 3KM MODEL PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE WELL.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SB CAPE OF 60-100 JOULES W/850-700MB LAPSE
RATES OF UP TO 7.0 C.KM. MOISTURE IS THERE THROUGH 700MBS. THIS
LENDS CREDENCE TO THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW SQUALL/HEAVY SNOW SHOWER
POTENTIALLY AND THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER POINTS TO THIS AS
WELL. THE AREAS TO BE MOST AFFECTED APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH AND
WESTERN AREAS W/ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH. ELSEWHERE,
PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLING DOWN AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 12Z UA SHOWED A 50 KT JET AT 700MBS IN LINE
W/THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND PICK UP OVERNIGHT
W/GUSTS OF 25 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS IN
PROXIMITY OF THE 50KT JETLET. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF SHARPLY
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING W/READINGS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST W/SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGIONS.
A COLD DAY ON SATURDAY W/HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC. THIS
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY WEAK AND STARVED FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO STAY W/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE GET OUT OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE
10-15 DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT INTO SRN AND
ERN MAINE. A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDED SOUTH INTO SRN QUEBEC WILL AFFECT NRN MAINE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. BY SUN MRNG THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST...THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO CNTRL QUEBEC. A LOW OVER NRN LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO ERN NY...WILL
MOVE EAST BY SUN EVNG. THE WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO CNTRL ME.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THIS FRONT STATIONARY OVER SRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NW MAINE...TO BEGIN MOVING
THIS FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP.
LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ADDED 15 PERCENT
TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. LOADED HPCGUIDE FOR QPF/ A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR
LAST 2 PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE SE SECTION OF THE
STATE...SW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST...THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.
A COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT INTO NW MAINE. BY EARLY
TUES MRNG THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...THE HIGH WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE STATE. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY RIDGE ACROSS THE
STATE CRESTING WED MRNG. A LOW WILL MOVE SE OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO
THE NRN GREAT LAKE EARLY THURS MRNG...WITH ITS WARM FRONT
EXTENDING TO NW MAINE. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS
THIS LOW MOVES EAST INTO CNTRL QUEBEC. AT THIS TIME THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
EAST CNTRL QUEBEC EARLY FRI MRNG...AND THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NW MAINE AT THIS TIME. A SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THURS MRNG...IT WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE
ERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY FRI EVNG. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO MAINE...THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR THIS EVENING MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS W/SOME SNOW
SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM: A FEW LINGERING SN SHWRS ACROSS NRN MAINE...MVFR
CONDITIONS EARLY NORTH...IMPROVING TO VFR BY NOON. VFR SOUTH. A
FEW SN SHWRS SOUTH SUNDAY...EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN ABV 3K FT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO HANG ON TO THE GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS GUSTS STILL 35+ KTS. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DROP OFF
SCA LEVELS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SEAS ARE
RUNNING VERY HIGH AT 14 TO 16 FT W/A PERIOD OF 10-11 SECONDS.
THESE ARE LARGE WAVES BUT THEY ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS FLOW GOES OFFSHORE AND GRADIENT
FALLS BACK. IT IS MOST PROBABLE THAT THE FULL SCA COULD TRANSITION
TO A SCA FOR HAZARDS SEAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS DROPPING OFF BELOW 20 KTS BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS AND SEAS WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH MID
DAY SUNDAY...OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
340 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
WITH A DRY FORECAST...THE FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. TODAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE A WARMER DAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
THE EASTERN TROUGH LIFTS OUT...WITH FLOW TRANSITIONING MORE ZONAL
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT LOBE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HUDSON
BAY UPPER LOW TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST AND SENDS A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH THRU OUR REGION TONIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS ALREADY KICKED IN EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN 3-5F...AIDED BY AN INCREASING LLVL
JET. MODELS VARY WITH THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND SO FAR
MODELS HAVE INDICATED MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS THAN WHAT IS
REALITY ATTM. DO EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AROUND TODAY...BUT CLOUDS
SHOULD BE VARIABLE ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS AND TEMPS SHOULD
SEE A NICE REBOUND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. HAVE
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE RAP FOR TEMPS TODAY WHICH INDICATE HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. THE NAM IS
HOLDING ONTO TOO MUCH SNOWCOVER VS COOP OBS AND VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM FRI AFTN...AND INITIALIZED WITH SNOWFALL ACROSS
PRETTY MUCH OUR ENTIRE CWA WITH SNOW DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. GIVEN THE POOR INITIALIZATION...DID NOT
UTILIZE NAM FOR TEMPS.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AND IS SLOW TO PROGRESS THRU OUR SOUTHERN CWA. OF
INTEREST IS THAT THE SREF INDICATES HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR VSBYS
RESTRICTIONS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST
ZONES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS AREA COINCIDES WITH HIGHER MODEL
DP PROGS AND MAY BE THE RESULT OF EXPECTED SNOW MELT DUE TO MODEL
SNOWPACK INITIALIZATION. WITH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY FOG IN FORECAST AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
REALLY HASNT BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE MODELS LOOKING THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING TO SEE GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES AFFECTING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS...ONE OF WHICH
LOOKS TO BE EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS OUT OF ERN CO. THIS DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY PASS THROUGH TO OUR S ACROSS KS...WITH MUCH OF
THE MODELS SUPPORTING THE PRECIP-FREE FORECAST. CERTAINLY NOT 100
PERCENT CONFIDENT IN THAT...MAINLY DUE TO THE GFS SPITTING OUT A
LITTLE LIGHT QPF...BUT UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODELS TRENDING THAT WAY
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED ITS WAY THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...BUT
WITH THE PARENT HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...NOT A BIG PUSH OF
STRONGER NORTH WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. WILL BE A COLDER AIR
MASS BUILDING IN...AND FORECAST HIGHS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM NEAR 20
IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE HUDSON BAY AREA WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA AND THROUGH NRN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS /AND EVENTUALLY
EAST/. THE PRIMARY PUSH LOOKS TO COME SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF NRLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR. WONT BE A BIG SHOT OF
WINDS...WITH SPEEDS JUST TOPPING OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE CENTERED OFF TO THE N/NE OF THE
CWA...BUT CLOSER THAN IT WAS SUNDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...MONDAY IS FORECAST TO
BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 20 SOUTH. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
GOES...THAT SECOND PUSH OF THE FRONT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES JUST OFF TO THE S/SE OF THE CWA...BUT WILL
BE SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING SHIFTS TO MONITOR AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT BACK TO THE NW FOR OUR AREA TO POTENTIALLY BE
AFFECTED.
LOOKING TO THE TUES/TUES NIGHT TIME FRAME...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ITS WAY
SOUTH INTO THE ROCKIES MON/MON NIGHT...AND BY 12Z TUESDAY IS LOCATED
ROUGHLY OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY...AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY SWING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO BRING SOME SNOW CHANCES. THERE ARE STILL
PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES TO BE WORKED OUT WITH THE STRENGTH/TIMING/PATH
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE...AS IN GENERAL THE
BRUNT OF IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. NOT CONFIDENT IN HOW
IT WILL EVOLVE SO KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THAT 12HR PERIOD OF 00-12Z
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A REBOUND IN TEMPS COMPARED TO
MONDAY...AND HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 20S ARE FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS
TO CONTINUE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST...AS
MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS THANKS TO AT
LEAST BRIEF RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT SHOWING MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH THE FINAL 3 DAYS OF
THE PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF DOWNSLOPING W/NW WINDS MAINLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BUMPED UP HIGHS A TOUCH FOR THOSE 2 DAYS FROM
SUPERBLEND GRIDS...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ON WED
TO LOWER/MID 40S FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2015
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND UPSTREAM CIGS
ARE AT VFR LEVELS. THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND A PERIOD OF LLVL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE MAY BE VSBY RESTRICTIONS
SATURDAY EVENING IN BR AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF ATTM.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1238 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH JUST MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA TO START OFF
THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
6 PM UPDATE...
A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION
THROUGH 5Z.
LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROG HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON BOTH THE ERIE
BAND AND THE ONTARIO BAND CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT, WE PROJECT THE ERIE BAND TO DROP
ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW BETWEEN 23Z AND 5Z, BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUMS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
1 PM UPDATE...
SFC TROF IS WORKING ITS WAY THRU CWA THIS AFTN WITH A BAND OF SNOW
AND FURTHER FALLING TEMPS ACCOMPANYING IT. MOISTURE FM LK ERIE
SNOWBAND FM THIS MRNG HAS DISCONNECTED ITSELF FM LAKE AND IS CAUSING
MODERATE-HVY SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SRN TIER. EXPECT LGT SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR ALL ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS UNTIL BNDRY
PUSHES THRU AND WINDS SETTLE BACK OUT FM THE SW.
FOR TONIGHT CWA WL BE ON FRINGES OF INTENSE LK EFFECT BANDS
STREAMING FM ONTARIO AND ERIE. FLOW LOOKS TO BE ALIGNED FM 260-265
DIRECTION AND THIS MAY BRING SOME SCTD SNOW SHOWERS TO ERN FINGER
LKS LOCALES BUT WL LKLY KEEP LK ONTARIO BAND NORTH OF NRN ONEIDA
CNTY. ANY LITTLE WAFFLING IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAND MAY DIP INTO
FAR NRN SXNS OF CNTY HWVR NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCH
OVRNGT FOR THE SRN TUG HILL PLATEAU.
QUESTION CNTRS ARND HOW FAR INLAND LK ERIE BAND CAN EXTEND. LATEST
HIRES MODELS SUGGEST IT WL PRESS AS FAR EAST AS THE WRN CATS AND
THUS INDICATE CHC POPS INTO OTSEGO CNTY ARND 05Z BFR BRINGING SNOWS
BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST AGAIN. AT MOST MAY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMS TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG ROUTE 20 DUE TO LK ERIE
BAND.
WINDS WL RANGE FM 10-15KTS TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RMNS TIGHT.
TEMPS WL BE FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WL PRODUCE ISOLD WIND CHILL VALUES APPCHG
-15F IN STEUBEN CNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE WRN CATS. HWVR NOT
EXPECTING THESE TO BE LONG ENUF OR WIDESPREAD ENUF TO JUSTIFY
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BE BUILDING INTO MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY PUSHING
LK BAND FURTHER AND FURTHER NORTH. SECONDARY COLD SURGE OVRNGT WL
HELP DROP TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT AND ONLY ALLOW HIGHS
TOMORROW TO RISE INTO THE TEENS. SKIES CLEAR FM SOUTH TO NORTH UNDER
BUILDING SFC HIGH.
QUIET WX IS EXPECTED SAT NGT WITH HIPRES BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST. TEMPS WL SLOWLY DROP OFF TOMORROW NGT BFR BEGINNING TO RISE
ACRS THE WEST AFT 06Z. HV GONE WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND AS WSW H8
FLOW DRAWS IN WRMR H8 TEMPS DRG THE OVRNGT.
SUNDAY WL FEATURE INCREASING CLDS AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHD OF
NEXT SFC BNDRY. CAN SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FRCG MUCH BFR 06Z
MONDAY TO JUSTIFY CHC POPS WITH UPGLIDE INCREASING AFT THIS TIME.
WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS BNDRY WORKS ITS WAY THRU
CWA DRG THE AFTN AND CLASHES WITH WV COMING UP FM THE SRN STREAM.
HOW MUCH OF A SNOW EVENT THIS MAY BE RMNS UP IN THE AIR WITH GFS
BEING FARTHEST OFFSHORE VS OTHER MODELS. NAM/CMC/EURO ALL SHOWING
SOME HINTS OF A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW DRG THE DAY ON MONDAY.
MAXES ON MONDAY WL APPCH FRZG ACRS NEPA AND MAY RESULT IN MIXED PCPN
EVENT DRG THE AFTN HRS BUT STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO NARROW DOWN THE
DETAILS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD FORESEEN...WITH ARCTIC HIGH YIELDING COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY ON...FOLLOWED BY TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY VIA SOUTHWEST FLOW.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE DROPPED FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY...AND THEN IT WILL BUILD
OVER OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BRIEF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING
NORTHERLY AND THUS DECREASING FETCH...ALONG AND SHALLOWNESS AND
DRYNESS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WILL BE MINOR AT BEST. LOWS IN
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
FEW SPOTS GETTING BELOW ZERO /ESPECIALLY NORTHERN REACHES OF
ONEIDA AND OTSEGO COUNTIES/. DURING TUESDAY ITSELF...A DRY ARCTIC DAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A FLURRY OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE IN
THE FINGER LAKES REGION...IN ONE OF THOSE AIR MASSES WHERE ANY
CLOUD WILL BE PUTTING OUT A FEW DENDRITES /MOST OF WHICH WILL DRY
UP ON THE WAY TO THE GROUND/.
THE HIGH WEAKENS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...YET MAINTAINS AT LEAST A
RIDGE...KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET. PRIOR RUN OF ECMWF TRIED TO
BRING A COASTAL LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT SOME OF THE
REGION TOWARDS THURSDAY...BUT 12Z RUN NOW JOINS THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS IN KEEPING IT WELL OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY RIDGE
STAYING IN CHARGE OF OUR WEATHER. AT THIS TIME WE ARE FIGURING ON
HIGHS IN THE 20S WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGY NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS CONT THRU THE PD. LE SNOW BANDS OFF ONTARIO AND ERIE
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES AS THE FLOW CONTS AND
BECOMES EVEN MORE SWLY AHD OF AN APRCHG WV. GUSTY DAYTIME WINDS ON
SAT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AFT 00Z SUN AS WE STABILIZE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...MAINLY VFR.
SUN NGT THRU MON NGT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SN.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...KAH/MLJ/PVF
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
726 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 721 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
BASED ON LATEST WEB CAMS AND SFC OBS...WILL CANCEL THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY SHORTLY. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND T/TD
SPREADS ARE DROPPING. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT THINK THESE
CONDITIONS ARE TOO LOCALIZED TO WARRANT KEEPING THE HIGHLIGHT
GOING. ALSO SEEING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF PUEBLO COUNTY (KPUB INCLUDED) AS STRATUS IS RECEDING EASTWARD.
WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE GRIDS WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
THROUGH 9 AM...AND IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT CONDITIONS
DO NOT SEEM WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGHLIGHT. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 539 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
...WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY...
CHINOOK STARTING TO BLOW AS NOTED BY WEST WINDS AT KTAD...AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF PIKES
PEAK...WETS...AND SANGRES. WAVE CLOUDS ARE BLOCKING VIEW OF STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY...BUT SUSPECT THAT IT IS
ON ITS WAY OUT ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY BASED ON KAFF AND KMNH
OBSERVATIONS. STILL SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
AS OF 3 AM.
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SUSPECT THAT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED BY 6 OR 7 AM...BUT HIGH RES
MODELS SEEM TO BE FASTER WITH THE CLEARING THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING SO
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. EITHER WAY...SHOULD SEE
FOG/STRATUS BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BOTH HRRR AND WRF KEEP A
POCKET OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY
(AFFECTING KLHX AND KLAA) WHERE WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
MEANWHILE...WESTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD DOWN THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES
AND SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S. FOR THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...VALLEY FOG (ESP ACROSS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY) SHOULD ERODE BY MID MORNING...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND TO VALUES SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS CA WILL WORK IT WAY EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT...SPREADING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM IS WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY. LEE TROFFING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE FOR THE
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES/ADJACENT PLAINS TONIGHT. COULD SEE A REPEAT OF
FOG FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH WILL BE BATTLING INVADING HIGH
CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY HINDER ITS DEVELOPMENT. SUSPECT THEIR MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW DURING THE LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHERE SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP BEFORE THE THICKER HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
IT SO GRIDS WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 539 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS METEOROLOGICAL
THINKING AS POPS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.
THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE(SUPPORTED
BY PV ANALYSIS) WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
SURGE(DRIVEN BE A 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS) SUNDAY
NIGHT IS PROJECTED TO ALLOW FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.
THEN...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM(ONCE AGAIN INDICATED BY
PV ANALYSIS FIELDS) IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWFA FROM LATER
MONDAY INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN UTAH AT 00Z TUESDAY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED COOL TO COLD MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WOULD OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AND ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS WARRANTED.
A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE NOTED OVER
THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING IMPACTS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
COOLEST LONGER TERM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WARMEST READINGS PROJECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...BASICALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE CWFA DURING THE LONGER TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
LIFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AS WESTERLY WINDS SPREAD OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE
ADJACENT PLAINS. SHOULD SEE STRATUS CLEAR BOTH KCOS AND KPUB BY 16Z
IF NOT SOONER AT KCOS. MEANWHILE...LIFR CONDITIONS AT KALS SHOULD
BREAK BY 16Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AT THE TERMINALS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS/VIS
RETURN AT KALS LATE THIS EVENING...THOUGH THIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY
THE TIMING OF CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SNOW TO THE CONTDVD LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
539 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 539 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
...WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY...
CHINOOK STARTING TO BLOW AS NOTED BY WEST WINDS AT KTAD...AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF PIKES
PEAK...WETS...AND SANGRES. WAVE CLOUDS ARE BLOCKING VIEW OF STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY...BUT SUSPECT THAT IT IS
ON ITS WAY OUT ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY BASED ON KAFF AND KMNH
OBSERVATIONS. STILL SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
AS OF 3 AM.
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SUSPECT THAT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED BY 6 OR 7 AM...BUT HIGH RES
MODELS SEEM TO BE FASTER WITH THE CLEARING THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING SO
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. EITHER WAY...SHOULD SEE
FOG/STRATUS BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BOTH HRRR AND WRF KEEP A
POCKET OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY
(AFFECTING KLHX AND KLAA) WHERE WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
MEANWHILE...WESTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD DOWN THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES
AND SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S. FOR THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...VALLEY FOG (ESP ACROSS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY) SHOULD ERODE BY MID MORNING...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND TO VALUES SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS CA WILL WORK IT WAY EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT...SPREADING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM IS WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY. LEE TROFFING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE FOR THE
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES/ADJACENT PLAINS TONIGHT. COULD SEE A REPEAT OF
FOG FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH WILL BE BATTLING INVADING HIGH
CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY HINDER ITS DEVELOPMENT. SUSPECT THEIR MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW DURING THE LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHERE SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP BEFORE THE THICKER HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
IT SO GRIDS WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 539 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS METEOROLOGICAL
THINKING AS POPS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.
THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE(SUPPORTED
BY PV ANALYSIS) WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
SURGE(DRIVEN BE A 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS) SUNDAY
NIGHT IS PROJECTED TO ALLOW FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.
THEN...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM(ONCE AGAIN INDICATED BY
PV ANALYSIS FIELDS) IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWFA FROM LATER
MONDAY INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN UTAH AT 00Z TUESDAY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED COOL TO COLD MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WOULD OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AND ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS WARRANTED.
A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE NOTED OVER
THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING IMPACTS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
COOLEST LONGER TERM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WARMEST READINGS PROJECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...BASICALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE CWFA DURING THE LONGER TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
LIFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AS WESTERLY WINDS SPREAD OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE
ADJACENT PLAINS. SHOULD SEE STRATUS CLEAR BOTH KCOS AND KPUB BY 16Z
IF NOT SOONER AT KCOS. MEANWHILE...LIFR CONDITIONS AT KALS SHOULD
BREAK BY 16Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AT THE TERMINALS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS/VIS
RETURN AT KALS LATE THIS EVENING...THOUGH THIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY
THE TIMING OF CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SNOW TO THE CONTDVD LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ085.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
544 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING IS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO TURN OUT OF THE SW ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE SW WINDS REALLY PUT A DAMPER ON
TEMPERATURE DROPS OVERNIGHT...WHICH IN TURN HAS KEPT WIND CHILL
VALUES LARGELY IN THE IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE...WELL SHORT OF THE
-25 ADVY CRITERIA. UNLESS SOMETHING DRASTIC CHANGES...WILL LIKELY
CANCEL MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE ADVY WITH THE MORNING FORECAST
UPDATE.
BY THE AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW NODAK WILL
BE WORKING ACROSS MN. WAA OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP SEND
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WITH SOME 20S
LIKELY DOWN ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS FORECAST...STUCK
PRETTY CLOSE TO A RAW MODEL CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST...WHICH HAVE BEEN THE DOMINATE PIECES OF GUIDANCE
OVER THE PAST WEEK IN THE VERIFICATION DEPARTMENT. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TO GENERATE A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE BANK OF CLOUDS IN THE 4K-6K FOOT RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS SEEN WITH HRRR CLOUD FORECAST.
TONIGHT...SAID BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SE OF THE MPX AREA...WITH LIGHT NW
WINDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...CAA LOOKS PRETTY
MINIMAL BEHIND THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WE LOOK TO HAVE EXTENSIVE
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES CERTAINLY WILL
NOT CRASH. A LOOK AT VERIFICATION STATISTICS OVER THE PAST WEEK
SHOWS OUR LOW FORECASTS FOR 24 HOURS OUT HAVE HAD A PRETTY DISTINCT
COLD BIAS OF 3-6 DEGREES. DURING THIS TIME...THE BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GRIDS AND STRAIGHT RAW MODEL BLEND HAVE PERFORMED BEST FOR
LOWS...SO THIS FORECAST STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO THOSE NUMBERS...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE -10F ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MPX AREA. WITH THAT SAID...WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM FROM SE
MN INTO WRN WI...AND IF THOSE MID/UPPER CLOUDS ARE NOT THERE...THEN
TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY END UP SEVERAL DEGREE COOLER THAN WHAT WE
CURRENTLY HAVE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BECOMES PREVALENT. THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST WILL
BE THE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND THAT WILL ENSUE...WITH READINGS
CLIMBING ABOVE MID JANUARY NORMALS TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK TROUGH...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP SUNDAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS /KAXN/ TO THE LOWER TEENS /KMSP-KEAU/. A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR/HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL THREATEN THE -25 WIND CHILL CRITERIA
BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH BOTH NIGHTS LOOK
BORDERLINE FOR NEEDING AN ADVISORY.
TUESDAY BRINGS THE EXIT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING
ALLOWING FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
BY WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE 20S APPEAR ACHIEVABLE...WITH 30S
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED...THE NEXT 7 DAYS APPEAR
DRY...WITH LONG RANGE MODELS NOT INDICATING ANY SYSTEMS ENTERING
THE AREA UNTIL AROUND THE 19TH-20TH OF JANUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR/RAP/NAM WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MN THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO BE BETWEEN 4K AND 6K FEET...BUT SOME LOW
PROBS FOR MVFR CIGS DO SHOW UP ON THE SREF...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THAT. LOOKS LIKE WI TERMINALS THOUGH WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT
MVFR CIGS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT
WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY DESCENDING INTO THE MID
LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KMSP...HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ALL NIGHT IN DEVELOPING CIGS
AROUND 5K FEET BY THE AFTERNOON...SO BROUGHT IN A CIG AT 4K FT.
SOME CONCERN THESE COULD GET DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT IF THAT
HAPPENED...NOTHING LOWER THAN 2.5K FEET IS EXPECTED. NO OTHER
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD OR ELEMENTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS N AT 5 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS S AT 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045-
073>078-082>085-091>093.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
408 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING IS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO TURN OUT OF THE SW ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE SW WINDS REALLY PUT A DAMPER ON
TEMPERATURE DROPS OVERNIGHT...WHICH IN TURN HAS KEPT WIND CHILL
VALUES LARGELY IN THE IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE...WELL SHORT OF THE
-25 ADVY CRITERIA. UNLESS SOMETHING DRASTIC CHANGES...WILL LIKELY
CANCEL MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE ADVY WITH THE MORNING FORECAST
UPDATE.
BY THE AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW NODAK WILL
BE WORKING ACROSS MN. WAA OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP SEND
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WITH SOME 20S
LIKELY DOWN ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS FORECAST...STUCK
PRETTY CLOSE TO A RAW MODEL CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST...WHICH HAVE BEEN THE DOMINATE PIECES OF GUIDANCE
OVER THE PAST WEEK IN THE VERIFICATION DEPARTMENT. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TO GENERATE A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE BANK OF CLOUDS IN THE 4K-6K FOOT RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS SEEN WITH HRRR CLOUD FORECAST.
TONIGHT...SAID BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SE OF THE MPX AREA...WITH LIGHT NW
WINDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...CAA LOOKS PRETTY
MINIMAL BEHIND THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WE LOOK TO HAVE EXTENSIVE
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES CERTAINLY WILL
NOT CRASH. A LOOK AT VERIFICATION STATISTICS OVER THE PAST WEEK
SHOWS OUR LOW FORECASTS FOR 24 HOURS OUT HAVE HAD A PRETTY DISTINCT
COLD BIAS OF 3-6 DEGREES. DURING THIS TIME...THE BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GRIDS AND STRAIGHT RAW MODEL BLEND HAVE PERFORMED BEST FOR
LOWS...SO THIS FORECAST STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO THOSE NUMBERS...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE -10F ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MPX AREA. WITH THAT SAID...WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM FROM SE
MN INTO WRN WI...AND IF THOSE MID/UPPER CLOUDS ARE NOT THERE...THEN
TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY END UP SEVERAL DEGREE COOLER THAN WHAT WE
CURRENTLY HAVE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BECOMES PREVALENT. THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST WILL
BE THE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND THAT WILL ENSUE...WITH READINGS
CLIMBING ABOVE MID JANUARY NORMALS TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK TROUGH...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP SUNDAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS /KAXN/ TO THE LOWER TEENS /KMSP-KEAU/. A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR/HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL THREATEN THE -25 WIND CHILL CRITERIA
BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH BOTH NIGHTS LOOK
BORDERLINE FOR NEEDING AN ADVISORY.
TUESDAY BRINGS THE EXIT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING
ALLOWING FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
BY WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE 20S APPEAR ACHIEVABLE...WITH 30S
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED...THE NEXT 7 DAYS APPEAR
DRY...WITH LONG RANGE MODELS NOT INDICATING ANY SYSTEMS ENTERING
THE AREA UNTIL AROUND THE 19TH-20TH OF JANUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2015
VFR THROUGHOUT THIS FCST PERIOD. WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT AS
THEY GRADUALLY BACK FROM WLY TO SLY OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW MRNG
BEFORE GOING LGT/VRBL LATE DAY TMRW THEN NW TMRW EVE. MAINLY CLR
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN DURG THE DAY TMRW AND
SOME FEW/SCT MIDLVL STRATOCU NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH.
KMSP...VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH FLURRIES. WINDS N AT 5 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS N AT 5 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS S AT 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045-
073>078-082>085-091>093.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
538 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
WITH A DRY FORECAST...THE FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. TODAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE A WARMER DAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
THE EASTERN TROUGH LIFTS OUT...WITH FLOW TRANSITIONING MORE ZONAL
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT LOBE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HUDSON
BAY UPPER LOW TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST AND SENDS A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH THRU OUR REGION TONIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS ALREADY KICKED IN EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN 3-5F...AIDED BY AN INCREASING LLVL
JET. MODELS VARY WITH THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND SO FAR
MODELS HAVE INDICATED MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS THAN WHAT IS
REALITY ATTM. DO EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AROUND TODAY...BUT CLOUDS
SHOULD BE VARIABLE ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS AND TEMPS SHOULD
SEE A NICE REBOUND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. HAVE
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE RAP FOR TEMPS TODAY WHICH INDICATE HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. THE NAM IS
HOLDING ONTO TOO MUCH SNOWCOVER VS COOP OBS AND VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM FRI AFTN...AND INITIALIZED WITH SNOWFALL ACROSS
PRETTY MUCH OUR ENTIRE CWA WITH SNOW DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. GIVEN THE POOR INITIALIZATION...DID NOT
UTILIZE NAM FOR TEMPS.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AND IS SLOW TO PROGRESS THRU OUR SOUTHERN CWA. OF
INTEREST IS THAT THE SREF INDICATES HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR VSBYS
RESTRICTIONS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST
ZONES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS AREA COINCIDES WITH HIGHER MODEL
DP PROGS AND MAY BE THE RESULT OF EXPECTED SNOW MELT DUE TO MODEL
SNOWPACK INITIALIZATION. WITH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY FOG IN FORECAST AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
REALLY HASNT BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE MODELS LOOKING THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING TO SEE GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES AFFECTING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS...ONE OF WHICH
LOOKS TO BE EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS OUT OF ERN CO. THIS DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY PASS THROUGH TO OUR S ACROSS KS...WITH MUCH OF
THE MODELS SUPPORTING THE PRECIP-FREE FORECAST. CERTAINLY NOT 100
PERCENT CONFIDENT IN THAT...MAINLY DUE TO THE GFS SPITTING OUT A
LITTLE LIGHT QPF...BUT UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODELS TRENDING THAT WAY
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED ITS WAY THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...BUT
WITH THE PARENT HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...NOT A BIG PUSH OF
STRONGER NORTH WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. WILL BE A COLDER AIR
MASS BUILDING IN...AND FORECAST HIGHS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM NEAR 20
IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE HUDSON BAY AREA WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA AND THROUGH NRN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS /AND EVENTUALLY
EAST/. THE PRIMARY PUSH LOOKS TO COME SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF NRLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR. WONT BE A BIG SHOT OF
WINDS...WITH SPEEDS JUST TOPPING OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE CENTERED OFF TO THE N/NE OF THE
CWA...BUT CLOSER THAN IT WAS SUNDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...MONDAY IS FORECAST TO
BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 20 SOUTH. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
GOES...THAT SECOND PUSH OF THE FRONT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES JUST OFF TO THE S/SE OF THE CWA...BUT WILL
BE SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING SHIFTS TO MONITOR AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT BACK TO THE NW FOR OUR AREA TO POTENTIALLY BE
AFFECTED.
LOOKING TO THE TUES/TUES NIGHT TIME FRAME...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ITS WAY
SOUTH INTO THE ROCKIES MON/MON NIGHT...AND BY 12Z TUESDAY IS LOCATED
ROUGHLY OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY...AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY SWING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO BRING SOME SNOW CHANCES. THERE ARE STILL
PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES TO BE WORKED OUT WITH THE STRENGTH/TIMING/PATH
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE...AS IN GENERAL THE
BRUNT OF IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. NOT CONFIDENT IN HOW
IT WILL EVOLVE SO KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THAT 12HR PERIOD OF 00-12Z
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A REBOUND IN TEMPS COMPARED TO
MONDAY...AND HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 20S ARE FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS
TO CONTINUE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST...AS
MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS THANKS TO AT
LEAST BRIEF RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT SHOWING MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH THE FINAL 3 DAYS OF
THE PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF DOWNSLOPING W/NW WINDS MAINLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BUMPED UP HIGHS A TOUCH FOR THOSE 2 DAYS FROM
SUPERBLEND GRIDS...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ON WED
TO LOWER/MID 40S FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE...A PERIOD OF LLWS IS
FORECAST THIS MORNING AS WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE ABOVE THE SFC DUE
TO A STRONG LLVL JET. CLOUDS WILL BE VARIABLE TODAY AND PRIMARILY
AT HIGH LEVELS. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE TERMINAL
TONIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
341 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
COMPARED TO RECENT MORNINGS...TODAY WILL SEE A BENIGN START.
WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR...WITH
GUSTS PEAKING AT AROUND 40-45 MPH. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A
THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY HAS NOT DONE THE ANTICIPATED FOG
DEVELOPMENT ANY FAVORS. HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA...SO HAVE REMOVED
IT FROM THE MORNING FORECAST. OTHERWISE...HAVE SEEN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE WAVE CLOUD SINCE LAST EVENING AS MID- LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS STREAMED IN FROM THE PACNW. GOES PROVING GROUND
SYNTHETIC IMAGERY DID AN EXCELLENT JOB IN CAPTURING THIS FTR AND
SHOWS IT STICKING AROUND THRU A LARGE CHUNK OF TODAY. LLVL
GRADIENTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS WELL WHICH WILL CUT GUSTS
IN THE WIND CORRIDOR DOWN TO AROUND 25-30 MPH BY SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER TODAY AS H7 TEMPERATURES
HOVER BETWEEN 0 AND -2C. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING AT
LEAST INTO THE 30S...WITH EVEN SOME LOW/MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING PLAINS AND SRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. NW FLOW WILL BACK TO
MORE ZONAL TODAY PRODUCING A FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT INTO
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE RANGES. DID ADD SOME SNOW
CHANCES AS A RESULT...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. BY TONIGHT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TRACKING WK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EAST THRU THE CWFA TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW
CHANCES OVR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND HAVE EVEN SPREAD THEM
FARTHER DOWN THE WEST SLOPE...FROM BAGGS TO CRESTON JCT.
NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
DEPEND UPON TIMING OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH MODELS THINK THAT HIGHS
WILL BE REACHED LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
26. WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND LLVL
UPSLOPE IN ITS WAKE DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM EVEN
SUGGESTS ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR NW-SE
ORIENTED SNOW BAND DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR
NOW...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE LIGHT...BUT MAY SEE BRIEF HEAVIER
SNOW RATES SHOULD THESE BANDS MATERIALIZE. LLVL WIND FLOW TURNS
FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NT. THIS WILL SET
UP A FAVORABLE FOG SET-UP MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. HAVE ADDED FOG MENTION LATE SUNDAY NT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME FZDZ MIXED IN FOR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE THAN THE LAST EVENT.
SNOW CHANCES WILL LESSEN AND BE CONFINED WEST OF I25 ON MONDAY AS
SOUTHEAST LLVL WINDS WEAKEN OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE. TEMPS WILL BE
THE COOLEST ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS...BUT NOT ALL
THAT COLD WITH 30S TO NR 40F FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE LONG RANGE WITH THE ONLY FORECAST CONCERN
BEING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. ALL MODELS SHOW THIS PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
RAPIDLY...WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO EXPECT LIMITED
IMPACTS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE GFS AND
ECMWF GENERALLY SHOW LIGHT PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE GEM IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH
AND A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AREA. KEPT POP BETWEEN 4O TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND GENERALLY 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM
RAWLINS...TO LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. KEPT
POP BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. IN EITHER
CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE 20S AND LOW
30S FOR HIGHS.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BY THE PACIFIC TROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLOWLY MODIFYING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 ARE
POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. NO MAJOR WIND CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TODAY. CURRENTLY
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...BUT
NOT MUCH HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST OF KCYS...VIS DOWN
TO 5 MILES AT TIMES NEAR PINE BLUFFS. BUT WITH A WESTERLY WIND AT
KCYS...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO FORM AT THIS TIME. FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA...THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG FOR KSNY THIS MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND
INTERSTATE 25 AND AREAS TO THE WEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
COOL TEMPERATURES...SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND SNOW COVERED
FUELS WILL KEEP ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RAP ANALYZED THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND VORT MAX ALONG
THE CO RIVER VALLEY. ORGANIZED ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS HAS
PRODUCED WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS STRETCHING FROM WESTERN MARICOPA
COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO UT. SMALLER VORTICES WITHIN THIS LINE OF
CLOUDS HAVE ALSO SUPPORTED SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AZ. VIRGA...SPRINKLES AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS HAVE ALSO
MANAGED TO DEVELOP AS FAR EAST AS THE PHOENIX AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS NOT
HANDLED WELL BY THE 12Z LOCAL WRFS. HRRR WITH ITS RADAR ASSIMILATION
HAS BEEN A BETTER GUIDANCE OPTION AND SUGGESTS THE ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH EASTERN MARICOPA AND
GILA COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
NEXT IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SAN
DIEGO COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM EASTWARD RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN THE ASCENDING
REGION. POPS WERE FINE-TUNED BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...WHICH
EQUATES TO MORE OR LESS ISOLATED-SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH LOW QPFS.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...ECMWF/GFS/NAM-WRF DEPICT STRONG Q DIVERGENCE
AND A BRIEF BUT DISCERNIBLE PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FINALLY THE THIRD TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND THROUGH ARIZONA
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE OVER-LAND
TRAJECTORY OF THIS WAVE WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND ONLY THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX WILL SEE ANY PRECIP WITH
THIS TROUGH. I RETAINED A MENTION OF SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MIXING RATIOS FORECAST TO PLUMMET QUICKLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...EFFECTIVELY ENDING OUT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD YET THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE POSITION OF A
NEARBY RIDGE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
COULD DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT
BL MIXING RATIOS AND PWATS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THUS AT THIS POINT THE ONLY FORECAST QUESTIONS ARE CENTERED
ON CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. SHOULD SEE VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH
CLOUDS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD BUT NOTHING OF MUCH SIGNIFICANCE.
BLENDED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STEADILY INCREASING TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH MATCHES THE INHERITED GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE PHOENIX TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AM EXPECTING MOSTLY BROKEN CLOUD DECKS
BETWEEN 7-10K FEET FORMING BY EARLY EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KIPL AND
KBLH...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10
KTS WITH A PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE PHOENIX AREA AND
MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWO TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT BUT COULD AFFECT THE LOWER DESERTS AND POINTS
EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND GLOBE/HILLTOP/SUNFLOWER. AFTER THAT...DRY WEATHER
AND LOWER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD. NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS EXPECTED...GENERALLY
EXPECTING LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1255 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK NEAR NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE MOJAVE DESERT CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS...MAINLY ACROSS LA PAZ AND WESTERN MARICOPA
COUNTIES. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN DETECTED AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT JUST EAST OF THE VORT MAX. THUNDER WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
LATEST HRRR APPEARS REASONABLE AND INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION
WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKENS. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WORKING
THEIR WAY INTO THE PHOENIX AREA...THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
FROM THE WEST VALLEY NORTH AND WESTWARD. IN THE PHOENIX
AREA...FORECAST POPS ARE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT...WHICH IS
GENERALLY ABOVE THE MEDIAN OF THE GUIDANCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND THE
TROUGH.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ALL OF WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE
IN THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH NEAR
35N/130W...AND YET ANOTHER THROUGH NEAR 40N/145W. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC INDICATES A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA /GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN RIVERSIDE AND
NORTHERN IMPERIAL COUNTIES/. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS ARE
ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S AND MORE THAN LIKELY THESE ARE ONLY
SPRINKLES/VIRGA/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...NOTHING OF TOO MUCH
CONCERN. DEWPOINTS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER ACROSS ARIZONA WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AS OF 09Z.
BEST FORCING IS GOING TO BE DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA
AND LATEST 00Z-06Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE DESERTS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS
STRETCHING FROM WICKENBURG TO SUNFLOWER AND GLOBE/HILLTOP HAVE
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING RAINFALL AT SOME POINT TODAY...BUT
ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE. BUFR SOUNDINGS CONFIRM A RELATIVELY
DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AT NEARLY EVERY DESERT SITE TODAY AND POPS
WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD IN MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WITH SNOW
LEVELS IN THE 7500-8500FT RANGE...MIXED PRECIP IS NOT A CONCERN
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING FORWARD TO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A QUIET PERIOD OF
WEATHER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE SECOND TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PWATS
EXPECTED BEFORE 00Z MONDAY. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THIS
TROUGH WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING BUT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE WAVE SUGGESTS IT WILL ARRIVE ABOUT 6-12HRS SOONER THAN
I WAS THINKING YESTERDAY. ALSO...BL MIXING RATIOS WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER WITH THIS SECONDARY TROUGH AND THUS PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER. POPS WERE INCREASED SOMEWHAT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS IN
THE 06Z-18Z PERIOD MONDAY. STILL THINKING THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE
ON THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS THE DESERTS BUT NEARLY ALL
ENSEMBLE MEAN QPFS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE DECREASED. MAY END UP
BEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN AT MOST.
FINALLY THE THIRD TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND THROUGH ARIZONA ON
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE OVER-LAND TRAJECTORY OF
THIS WAVE WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND ONLY THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX WILL SEE ANY PRECIP WITH THIS
TROUGH. I RETAINED A MENTION OF SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MIXING RATIOS FORECAST TO PLUMMET QUICKLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...EFFECTIVELY ENDING OUT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD YET THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE POSITION OF A
NEARBY RIDGE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
COULD DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT
BL MIXING RATIOS AND PWATS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THUS AT THIS POINT THE ONLY FORECAST QUESTIONS ARE CENTERED
ON CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. SHOULD SEE VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH
CLOUDS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD BUT NOTHING OF MUCH SIGNIFICANCE.
BLENDED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STEADILY INCREASING TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH MATCHES THE INHERITED GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE PHOENIX TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AM EXPECTING MOSTLY BROKEN CLOUD DECKS
BETWEEN 7-10K FEET FORMING BY EARLY EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KIPL AND
KBLH...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10
KTS WITH A PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE PHOENIX AREA AND
MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWO TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT BUT COULD AFFECT THE LOWER DESERTS AND POINTS
EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND GLOBE/HILLTOP/SUNFLOWER. AFTER THAT...DRY WEATHER
AND LOWER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD. NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS EXPECTED...GENERALLY
EXPECTING LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
940 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK NEAR NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE MOJAVE DESERT CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS...MAINLY ACROSS LA PAZ AND WESTERN MARICOPA
COUNTIES. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN DETECTED AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT JUST EAST OF THE VORT MAX. THUNDER WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
LATEST HRRR APPEARS REASONABLE AND INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION
WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKENS. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WORKING
THEIR WAY INTO THE PHOENIX AREA...THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
FROM THE WEST VALLEY NORTH AND WESTWARD. IN THE PHOENIX
AREA...FORECAST POPS ARE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT...WHICH IS
GENERALLY ABOVE THE MEDIAN OF THE GUIDANCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND THE
TROUGH.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ALL OF WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE
IN THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH NEAR
35N/130W...AND YET ANOTHER THROUGH NEAR 40N/145W. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC INDICATES A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA /GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN RIVERSIDE AND
NORTHERN IMPERIAL COUNTIES/. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS ARE
ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S AND MORE THAN LIKELY THESE ARE ONLY
SPRINKLES/VIRGA/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...NOTHING OF TOO MUCH
CONCERN. DEWPOINTS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER ACROSS ARIZONA WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AS OF 09Z.
BEST FORCING IS GOING TO BE DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA
AND LATEST 00Z-06Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE DESERTS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS
STRETCHING FROM WICKENBURG TO SUNFLOWER AND GLOBE/HILLTOP HAVE
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING RAINFALL AT SOME POINT TODAY...BUT
ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE. BUFR SOUNDINGS CONFIRM A RELATIVELY
DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AT NEARLY EVERY DESERT SITE TODAY AND POPS
WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD IN MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WITH SNOW
LEVELS IN THE 7500-8500FT RANGE...MIXED PRECIP IS NOT A CONCERN
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING FORWARD TO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A QUIET PERIOD OF
WEATHER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE SECOND TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PWATS
EXPECTED BEFORE 00Z MONDAY. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THIS
TROUGH WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING BUT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE WAVE SUGGESTS IT WILL ARRIVE ABOUT 6-12HRS SOONER THAN
I WAS THINKING YESTERDAY. ALSO...BL MIXING RATIOS WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER WITH THIS SECONDARY TROUGH AND THUS PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER. POPS WERE INCREASED SOMEWHAT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS IN
THE 06Z-18Z PERIOD MONDAY. STILL THINKING THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE
ON THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS THE DESERTS BUT NEARLY ALL
ENSEMBLE MEAN QPFS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE DECREASED. MAY END UP
BEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN AT MOST.
FINALLY THE THIRD TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND THROUGH ARIZONA ON
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE OVER-LAND TRAJECTORY OF
THIS WAVE WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND ONLY THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX WILL SEE ANY PRECIP WITH THIS
TROUGH. I RETAINED A MENTION OF SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MIXING RATIOS FORECAST TO PLUMMET QUICKLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...EFFECTIVELY ENDING OUT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD YET THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE POSITION OF A
NEARBY RIDGE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
COULD DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT
BL MIXING RATIOS AND PWATS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THUS AT THIS POINT THE ONLY FORECAST QUESTIONS ARE CENTERED
ON CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. SHOULD SEE VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH
CLOUDS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD BUT NOTHING OF MUCH SIGNIFICANCE.
BLENDED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STEADILY INCREASING TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH MATCHES THE INHERITED GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN AND CIGS EVENTUALLY LOWER TO 8-10KFT
LATER TODAY. ALMOST ALL PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE WILL BE
RELEGATED TO NORTHERN ARIZONA...HOWEVER EXTENSIVE VIRGA AND A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING NEAR KBLH...AND NEAR
KPHX/KIWA/KSDL AFTER 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL FACILITATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH
AT LEAST 10Z SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWO TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT BUT COULD AFFECT THE LOWER DESERTS AND POINTS
EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND GLOBE/HILLTOP/SUNFLOWER. AFTER THAT...DRY WEATHER
AND LOWER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD. NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS EXPECTED...GENERALLY
EXPECTING LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1019 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 721 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
BASED ON LATEST WEB CAMS AND SFC OBS...WILL CANCEL THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY SHORTLY. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND T/TD
SPREADS ARE DROPPING. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT THINK THESE
CONDITIONS ARE TOO LOCALIZED TO WARRANT KEEPING THE HIGHLIGHT
GOING. ALSO SEEING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF PUEBLO COUNTY (KPUB INCLUDED) AS STRATUS IS RECEDING EASTWARD.
WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE GRIDS WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
THROUGH 9 AM...AND IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT CONDITIONS
DO NOT SEEM WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGHLIGHT. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 539 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
...WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY...
CHINOOK STARTING TO BLOW AS NOTED BY WEST WINDS AT KTAD...AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF PIKES
PEAK...WETS...AND SANGRES. WAVE CLOUDS ARE BLOCKING VIEW OF STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY...BUT SUSPECT THAT IT IS
ON ITS WAY OUT ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY BASED ON KAFF AND KMNH
OBSERVATIONS. STILL SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
AS OF 3 AM.
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SUSPECT THAT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED BY 6 OR 7 AM...BUT HIGH RES
MODELS SEEM TO BE FASTER WITH THE CLEARING THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING SO
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. EITHER WAY...SHOULD SEE
FOG/STRATUS BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BOTH HRRR AND WRF KEEP A
POCKET OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY
(AFFECTING KLHX AND KLAA) WHERE WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
MEANWHILE...WESTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD DOWN THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES
AND SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S. FOR THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...VALLEY FOG (ESP ACROSS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY) SHOULD ERODE BY MID MORNING...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND TO VALUES SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS CA WILL WORK IT WAY EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT...SPREADING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM IS WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY. LEE TROFFING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE FOR THE
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES/ADJACENT PLAINS TONIGHT. COULD SEE A REPEAT OF
FOG FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH WILL BE BATTLING INVADING HIGH
CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY HINDER ITS DEVELOPMENT. SUSPECT THEIR MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW DURING THE LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHERE SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP BEFORE THE THICKER HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
IT SO GRIDS WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 539 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS METEOROLOGICAL
THINKING AS POPS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.
THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE(SUPPORTED
BY PV ANALYSIS) WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
SURGE(DRIVEN BE A 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS) SUNDAY
NIGHT IS PROJECTED TO ALLOW FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.
THEN...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM(ONCE AGAIN INDICATED BY
PV ANALYSIS FIELDS) IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWFA FROM LATER
MONDAY INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN UTAH AT 00Z TUESDAY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED COOL TO COLD MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WOULD OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AND ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS WARRANTED.
A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE NOTED OVER
THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING IMPACTS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
COOLEST LONGER TERM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WARMEST READINGS PROJECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...BASICALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE CWFA DURING THE LONGER TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
KALS...LOW STRATUS IS IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING AND SHOULD DO
SO BY 19Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT KPUB AFTER
03Z TONIGHT. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
NOT AS COLD TODAY WITH WARM ADVECTION ON GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER TEENS
NORTH... TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGS SOUTH. AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MN THROUGH CENTRAL NE AT MID AFTN.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS SPLIT FLOW ACROSS CONUS
WITH DRY AND COLD WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE MIDWEST.
100-120+ KT CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET EXTENDS FROM ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN PROVINCES TO THE GREAT LAKES SHUTTLING COUPLE OF
IMPULSES. MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHERN
STREAM SEEN EJECTING E/NE INTO SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX THIS AFTN.
THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL LOOK TO INTERACT WITH FRONT TO BRING LIGHT
SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTN-EVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
FRONT TO SAG SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE FAR NW
CWA TOWARD 12Z. THIS MEANS NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA WILL RESIDE IN
THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR TONIGHT CHARACTERIZED BY SOUTHERLY
WINDS... GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING... AND MUCH WARMER LOWS IN THE
GENERAL RANGE FROM AROUND 10F TO 19F. SKIES LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
SUNDAY...COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE
ROUGHLY BISECTING CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY 00Z. WEAKENING
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE AND PCPN
SHIELD IS SUGGESTED TO PASS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF CWA SUNDAY AFTN.
HOWEVER... GLANCING BOUT OF FORCING ON NORTH SIDE OF SYSTEM LOOKS TO
INTERACT WITH FRONT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FOCUSING MAINLY IN CORRIDOR BETWEEN IOWA CITY AND GALESBURG
ESPECIALLY NEAR SQI-MLI-MPZ AXIS IN RIBBON OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES JET. FORCING
LOOKS PRIMARILY JUST OUTSIDE OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND THUS
MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMS LESS THAN AN INCH WHICH WILL BE CHEWED SOME BY
TEMPS NEARING THE FREEZING MARK IN SOME AREAS. TEMPS SHOULD BE
WARMEST IN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST CWA AND AROUND THE FREEZING MARK BEING
PRE- FRONTAL WHILE ELSEWHERE GENERALLY 20S FOR HIGHS. DPROG/DT
DOES SHOW SOME SLOWING OF FRONT WHICH COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER HIGHS MOST AREAS AND ALSO COULD RESULT IN PUSHING PCPN CHCS
A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING TO SIDE WITH THE 12Z/18Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF
FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT ELEVATED FORCING SNOW EVENT AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROF SHEARS TOWARD THE WESTERN GRT LKS...AND THE DEEP
SOUTHERN PLAINS TROF LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OH RVR
VALLEY. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE PLUME PROPAGATION PATHS TAKE THE
BULK OF THE DEEPER SATURATION AND PRECIP AREAS/SEEN NOW ACRS EASTERN
TX/ TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DVN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT
300-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT SFC/S WHICH ARE DEPICTING THE PRECIP BAND
CURRENTLY ACRS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE...ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS IT PROPAGATES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THE INITIAL ELEVATED/H7
MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WING IS DEPICTED BY THE NAM TO SET UP
ALONG A NARROW AXIS GENERALLY DURING THE 6-9 PM CST TIME WINDOW FROM
MT PLEASANT IN SE IA...TO THE EASTERN QUAD CITIES...TO NEAR STERLING
IL WITH AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUM POSSIBLE BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST. THE 12Z
ECMWF GENERALLY TARGETS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW...TO 1.5 INCHES FROM 00Z-12Z MON WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE MS RVR. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION
PROGS SUGGEST SOME 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM CARTHAGE IN WEST CENTRAL IL...TO MONMOUTH IL AND TO PRINCETON IL
BY THE TIME THE SNOW DECLINES AND SHIFTS EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MON MORNING. FOR NOW WILL ADJUST HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS A BIT
FURTHER TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMS/ON TOP OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
MEMPHIS MO...TO ALEDO IL...TO NORTHWEST OF PRINCETON IL. BUT
ADDITIONAL SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO BE WARY OF AN ENHANCED BAND OF 1+
INCHES POSSIBLE SETTING UP ALONG THE NAM INDICATED BAND FURTHER TO
THE NORTHWEST AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. NORTH WINDS PICKING UP BEHIND THE
SYSTEM/S ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10-20 MPH/THE
HIGHER VALUES ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA/...WITH TEMP DROP OFF LATE
TO THE FCST LOWS...LARGE THERMAL GRADIENT FROM NW-TO-SE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ROUND OF RE-ENFORCING COLD THIS PERIOD AS A
STRONG 1045+ MB CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST MON AND
SETTLES OVERHEAD BY TUE. INCOMING RIDGE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE
NORTHERLY SFC WINDS OF 15-20+ MPH ON MON...WILL MIX UP LATE MORNING
MIDDAY HIGHS IN THE TEENS BEFORE COLD ADVECTING AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES FOR A TEMP DROP-OFF. SFC WINDS TO DECREASE AS MON NIGHT
PROGRESSES INTO EARLY TUE MORNING...THIS TO ALLOW FOR THE PROJECTED
COLD SUB-ZERO LOWS ACRS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA BY TUE MORNING. BUT
EVEN DECREASING WINDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRESHLY
ARRIVED CANADIAN AIR TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ACRS
AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE DVN CWA LATE MON NIGHT INTO MID
TUE MORNING. SUNSHINE AND LLVL COLD POOL SEEPING OFF TO THE EAST
AMY ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON TEMP RECOVERY BACK INTO THE TEENS TUE.
COLDEST LOWS TUE NIGHT WITH A QUICK TEMP DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET EAST
OF THE MS RVR CLOSER TO PASSING SFC RIDGE CENTER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...LATEST 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE DVN CWA TO GENERALLY LAY OUT UNDER SPLIT
FLOW REGIME THIS PERIOD IN BETWEEN MORE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
LOW AMPLITUDE DIGGING L/W TROF OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
EASTERN GRT LKS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE AIRMASS WILL STILL LOOK
TO MODIFY...WITH THE LARGER THERMAL JUMP FRI INTO SAT AS CLIPPER IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHUTTLE ALONG TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND
DRAW WARMER AIR UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LONGER RANGE THERMAL
PROGS BY THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST TEMPS MAY RECOVER BACK INTO
THE 30S BY FRI...WITH SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I80 BY SAT
EVEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT LINGERING SNOW COVER. THE FCST LOOKS DRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH LONG RANGE PROGS
SUGGESTING THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCE NOT COMING UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH MAINLY MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND CIGS AT OR ABOVE 4-6KFT AGL. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KTS EXPECTED REST OF TODAY. THIS EVENING
MAY SEE WINDS DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN WIND SHEAR WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING AROUND 40-45 KTS FROM SOUTHWEST IN THE
1500-2000 FT AGL LAYER WHILE SFC WINDS SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS.
AS RESULT...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF LLWS AT ALL
SITES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS
EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE NORTHEAST IA AND MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
ELSEWHERE. RAP MODEL TRYS TO DEVELOP LOWER MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR
CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING... BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION ATTIM DUE TO MODEL BL MOISTURE CONCERNS
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS AND PASS ALONG TO NEXT
SHIFT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
344 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WERE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN INVERSION DEVELOPING THIS EVENING TRAPPING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTING IN A STRATUS SHIELD OVER CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN IOWA. PRETTY HIGH RH AT 925MB THIS EVENING AND ALSO
SHOULD BE A LITTLE ADDED MOISTURE WITH THE STRONG WAA TODAY OVER
THE SNOW PACK. INCREASE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS UP SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE
HOPWRF AND HRRR HAVE CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
A FEW MINOR ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH MAINLY A DRY AND QUIET
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE MID/LONG RANGE. SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THAT WAVE SOMEWHAT SHEARING
APART AS IT DROPS SOUTH. WAA AND SOME WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
CREEP INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM SHOWS DEEPER SATURATION KEEPING
THE PRECIP MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME
QUESTION AS TO THE DEEPER SATURATION AND ICE INTRODUCTION WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT FZDZ. OVERALL THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...SO
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE AND WENT WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES
SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...AND SOME GUSTY WINDS
INTO MONDAY. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE CWA FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING WELL BELOW NORMAL
AGAIN.
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE FLOW FLATTENING OUT SOME TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN PUSH OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT AS WELL THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SO A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE OR EVEN PUSH ABOVE AVERAGE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...10/18Z
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BY TONIGHT AS AN
INVERSION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING AND LOOKS TO LOCK IN MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH FROM THE WAA TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THE STRATUS
DECK DIMINISHING SUNDAY MORNING AND LOOKS LIKE THE INVERSION
WEAKENS BY AROUND 14Z.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1207 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
UPDATED MAINLY TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO PTSUNNY TO CLOUDY WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT WAA AND CONVERGENCE LEADING
TO EXPANSION OF 5-6KFT AGL CIGS... WHILE CIRRUS ALSO INCREASING
ATTENDANT TO APPROACHING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER MIDWEST
JET STREAK. TWEAKED TEMPS SOME BUT RANGE OF MID TEENS TO MID 20S
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK DESPITE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THIS IS DUE TO
WAA ON GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM KY TO NORTH TX WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND A SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH ACROSS THE DVN CWA. THESE WINDS
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND IN FACT WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA WAS FINALLY MET AT 2 AM...AND ONLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 30. 2 AM READINGS RANGED FROM 9 BELOW AT CEDAR RAPIDS TO
5 ABOVE AT FORT MADISON. AT SOME LOCATIONS TEMPERATURES HAVE ACTUALLY
RISEN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS KICKING IN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS WAS NOTED IN
CENTRAL KS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S IN WESTERN KS AND INTO
WEST TX.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
HEADLINES...HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR SE IA AND
WESTERN IL BUT KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 9 AM.
FORECAST FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES.
TODAY...AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY STRONG 925-850 MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING
WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS
ARE NOT COMPLETELY SATURATED SO THERE STILL SHOULD BE SOME SUNSHINE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...EXCEPT
TEENS IN NW IL. 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-45 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON
BUT DON`T SEE DEEP MIXING TO BRING DOWN THESE STRONG OF WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. FOR NOW BELIEVE SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST TO AROUND
25 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY TO 30 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA AND WITH SOUTH
WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO BRING LIGHT...BUT
MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE PARTS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A FRESH ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL KEEP
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN A MORE PACIFIC AIRMASS...
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK. BEYOND SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE UNFAVORABLE STORM TRACKS IN THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
KEEP STORM SYSTEMS WELL NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN
A DRY FORECAST.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION ON LIGHT SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL LIKELY BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S CENTRAL AND NORTH...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
LOWER 30S SOUTH...DESPITE THICKENING HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE LATEST
MODELS...LED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF...CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER NORTH
WITH PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVERSPREADS THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED AFTERNOON POPS FOR WHAT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHOULD BE ALL LIGHT SNOW WITH UP TO A DUSTING
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST FORCING
ARRIVES IN THE EVENING...AND WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE FROM GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND HAVE SPREAD CHANCE WORDING INTO E CENTRAL
IA AND NW IL. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...THE QUICK SHOT OF LIFT
INTO A FAVORABLY COLD LAYER ALOFT LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO MENTION
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MO...FAR
SOUTHEAST IA AND W CENTRAL IL...WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AND EXITS THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...LEADING TO
LOWS FROM AROUND 5 NORTH TO UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON A
MODEL BLEND. HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WEAK FORCING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE...ROUGHLY AROUND 1045 MB...IS SHOWN OVER THE IA/MN BORDER
REGION TOWARD 12Z. IF COMPLETE DECOUPLING OCCURS AND THERE ARE NO
MID OR LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS...PROGGED LOWS FROM AROUND ZERO SOUTH AND
EAST TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND WEST LOOK REASONABLE.
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH
AROUND WED NIGHT...BUT SUGGEST LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AT THE
SURFACE...TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE A WARMING TREND...RISING FROM THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S TUE AND WED...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THU AND FRI WITH MINS POSSIBLY RISING TO NEAR CLIMO...IN THE TEENS
OR WARMER...BY WEEK/S END.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH MAINLY MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND CIGS AT OR ABOVE 4-6KFT AGL. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KTS EXPECTED REST OF TODAY. THIS EVENING
MAY SEE WINDS DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN WIND SHEAR WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING AROUND 40-45 KTS FROM SOUTHWEST IN THE
1500-2000 FT AGL LAYER WHILE SFC WINDS SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS.
AS RESULT...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF LLWS AT ALL
SITES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS
EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE NORTHEAST IA AND MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
ELSEWHERE. RAP MODEL TRYS TO DEVELOP LOWER MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR
CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING... BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION ATTIM DUE TO MODEL BL MOISTURE CONCERNS
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS AND PASS ALONG TO NEXT
SHIFT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
340 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS HAS KEPT THE SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT TODAY
THROUGHOUT THE AREA...HELPING TO SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...DESPITE AN AWFULLY CHILLY
START. READINGS AT 3 PM RANGE FROM 25 DEGREES JUST NORTH OF FLEMING
COUNTY TO 34 DEGREES IN BELL AND HARLAN COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS...
MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE RETREAT OF THE DEEP
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS LATEST COLD BLAST TONIGHT AND THE
APPROACHING OF A WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
MORE ENERGY WILL START TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE
FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY FOR THIS SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...BUT MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY EVEN AS CLOUDS
QUICKLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FROM THE WEST. WHILE READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA BEFORE THE CHANCES
OF LIGHT RAIN MOVE IN...THE DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY RESULT IN A MIXTURE
OF RAIN AND SLEET INITIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. IN
ADDITION...THOUGH AIR TEMPERATURE WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...PATCHY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SUB FREEZING
ROAD TEMPERATURES AND SHADED LOCATIONS. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ADDED A
TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE WX GRIDS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER...RAIN WILL BE THE PCPN TYPE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES RIDES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS
THE WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR
THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS WITH SOME MODERATE TERRAIN BASED POINT
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN LINE WITH THE
MET MOS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK...CONFIDENCE
FADES AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS QUESTIONS SWIRL WITH
JUST HOW FAR SOUTH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS...WHICH IN TURN WILL
DETERMINE JUST HOW ACTIVE AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WE DEAL
WITH THROUGH THURSDAY.
TO START THE PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY...YIELDING A DAMP DAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE ALL PRESENT TO SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF PERSISTENT PERIOD OF DRIZZLE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...SHALLOW COLD AIR
WILL BE SPREADING SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SET UP THE
STAGE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ERODES ON TUESDAY...AS GFS KEEPS THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER NORTH...KEEPING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AROUND FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF
SINKS THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. SIMPLY CANNOT DISCOUNT THE GFS SOLUTION...SO WILL KEEP SOME
LOW POPS AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
CLIMB PAST FREEZING...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES EXIST COULD POSE
PROBLEMS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...GFS DOES SHOW SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADING BACK OVERHEAD...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING FEEDER/SEEDER
PROCESSES BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SAME
TIME...STILL A BIT OF A WARM NOSE ON THE GFS SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE
DAY...SO ANY SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES COULD JUST INCREASE THE
INTENSITY OF ANY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...ANY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE
LOWER TEMPERATURE PROFILE ON TUESDAY WOULD SIGNIFICANT ALTER
PRECIPITATION TYPE. THUS...PLANNING TO GO FAIRLY LIBERAL ON THE
PRECIPITATION TYPES THIS FAR OUT AND GO WITH A MIXTURE OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW ENTERING THE PICTURE ON
TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW FAR
NORTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LAST. THE ECMWF REMAINS LESS
OPTIMISTIC ON ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS SOME
CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY. GIVEN THE MODELS
DISAGREEMENT HAVE OPTED FOR SOME LOW POPS THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...THE THREAT FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW...AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE. THUS...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. ALL MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER BY LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...SO WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015
HIGH PRESSURE...IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND RETREATING TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. JUST TOWARD THE LAST 6 HOURS...SUNDAY
MORNING...WILL SOME HIGH THEN LOWER CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. BY 18Z CIGS NEAR MVFR WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF WESTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNDER THE HIGH/S INFLUENCE...WINDS WILL BE AT 5
KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
334 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
SE MICHIGAN WILL EASE INTO MORE OF A QUASI-ZONAL SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT
MID LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT...BASE OF THE PREDOMINANT CENTRAL CANADIAN
TROUGH DICTATING CONDITIONS RECENTLY FINALLY RELEASING NORTH AND
EAST. A TRANSITION TOWARD LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
INITIATE THE EARLY STAGES OF A PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN NOTED UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE ENSUING
BROADENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT TIED TO THIS PROCESS. DESPITE THE
GENERAL WARMING THROUGH THE THERMAL PROFILE...THERE WILL REMAIN SOME
PERPETUATION OF THE ONGOING WEAK LAKE MOISTURE FLUX. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE SLIGHTLY TO THE OVERALL MOISTURE QUALITY NORTH OF THE I-
69 CORRIDOR... PROVIDING A WINDOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES...RECENT NAM AND RAP SOUNDING DATA STILL LEAVE A HEALTHY
DRY LAYER WITHIN THE LOWEST 4000 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXISTING ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING
RESPONSE THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SECTIONS WHERE
SKIES ARE NOW CLEAR. THIS WILL BRING LOWS IN MANY LOCALES INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS EARLY TONIGHT. A THICKENING CLOUD DECK AND SOME
INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL THEN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE GRADUALLY HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO LOW-MID TEENS BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE SQUEEZE PLAY LOOKS TO BE ON LATE TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT AS
UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OVER TEXAS MAKES A RUN NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. THE TROUGH AXIS IS DISTINCTLY POSITIVELY TILTED AND WILL ACT
TO SHUNT/SHEAR OUT THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT SNEAKING ACROSS THE MICHIGAN BORDER TO
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW...AS 850-700 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 3+ G/KG
SEEN REACHING THE M-59 CORRIDOR (REGIONAL GEM/GFS) OR EVEN AS FAR
NORTH AS THE I-69 CORRIDOR (NAM). THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT IDEAL FOR
HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS HOWEVER. FORCING FROM ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PROSPECTIVE IS NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE...AND BEST 850 MB FGEN LOOKS TO
BE OCCURRING AT OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER. NOT MUCH OF A
SURFACE REFLECTION AS WELL. THIS APPEARS TO BE A 1 TO 2 INCH
SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN (FOCUSED M-59 SOUTH) BY THE
TIME THE SNOW ENDS MONDAY MORNING. 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO
AROUND -5 C...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH WILL FAIL TO REACH THIS
LEVEL...AND A SLOW GRIND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WITH TEMPS HOLDING NEARLY STEADY SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT
WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SNOW. SURPRISINGLY...NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH LOOKS TO BE PROVIDING ONLY A GLANCING BLOW WITH THE
COLD AIR...AS 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP INTO MID NEGATIVE TEENS
(PER 12Z EURO)...WITH DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE WINNING OUT AT THIS
LEVEL...WITH RH DROPPING BELOW 50 PERCENT. STILL...WITH LONG FETCH
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER LAKE HURON ON MONDAY...ENOUGH COLD
AIR/INSTABILITY/SATURATION AT THE 925 MB LEVEL TO GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...PROBABLY BRUSHING THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE...BUT THE
SHALLOW NATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
EVEN BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST/ONSHORE BY MONDAY EVENING...BUT AGAIN
WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AROUND AND SHALLOW NATURE...SHOULD LIMIT
ACTIVITY TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH JUST LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION.
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND STABLE COLD ANTICYCLONE AT THE SURFACE WILL
LEAD TO COLD AND DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SNOW PACK
AND LIGHT WINDS WE COULD SEE TEMPS TANK PRETTY WELL TUESDAY NIGHT
PROVIDED ENOUGH CLEARING TAKES PLACE. THE COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO
SCOUR OUT A BIT THURSDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD
OF INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY COULD LEAD
TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT IT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO
WILL KEEP POPS OUT FOR NOW. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH WILL
ALLOW RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY FINALLY APPROACHING NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LAKE HURON AS THE
AREA IS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. A MARGINAL GUST TO GALES REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND WILL EXTEND HEAVY FREEZING
WARNING INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE HIGH WILL BE SLOWING EXITING
EAST...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AS WE HEAD INTO
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW...AS ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...LEADING TO NORTHERLY WINDS OVER LAKE HURON. THE ARCTIC AIR
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL BE MORE SHALLOW...THUS REDUCING
MIXING DEPTHS...WITH GUSTS ONLY UP TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING
MONDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1208 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015
VERY DRY LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AIDED BY A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL SUSTAIN A CLEAR SKY BELOW 5000 FT ACROSS ALL
BUT MBS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES INTO THE 20 KNOT RANGE. MID LEVEL CLOUD WILL INCREASE LATE
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN. LOWER LEVELS
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY AND WILL SUSTAIN A VFR CONDITION THROUGH
THIS TIME. MOISTURE DEPTH MAY IMPROVE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN EXPANSION
IN LOWER STRATUS INTO MBS BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALSO YIELD A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR.
FOR DTW...JUST SOME POCKETS OF HIGH CLOUD THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE INBOUND LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FT AS IT ENTERS THE TERMINAL AIRSPACE AFTER 00Z.
A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS MOISTURE...NO IMPACT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS LOWERING TO 5000 FT LATE TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ362-363-462>464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
321 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015
A SLIGHT WARM UP IS ON THE WAY FOR THIS COMING WEEK. AS THE WARM
AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL CROSS AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96 SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR ONCE AGAIN TRIES TO PUSH BACK SOUTHWARD. AS
OUR LAST POLAR ORIGIN HIGH OF THIS CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN MOVES
IN MONDAY SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT WILL SEE CLEARING LATE
IN THE DAY. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR ONE MORE DAY. LOW WILL BE BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS THAT NIGHT. BEY0ND THAT A SLOW WARM UP BEGINS. BY
NEXT SATURDAY WE MAY HAVE HIGH ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015
WE HAVE THE DEPARTING OF THE WEEK LONG COLD PATTERN UNDERWAY AS I
WRITE THIS. THIS WAS THE LONGEST STRING OF DAYS IN A ROW WITH
HIGHS BELOW 20 DEGREES IN GRAND RAPIDS SINCE THE MIDDLE OF
FEBRUARY IN 2007. THIS WILL BE HISTORY ON SUNDAY.
AS THE WARM AIR SURGES IN TONIGHT... EVEN WITH VERY FEEBLE
MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGES TO A THIRD OF AN INCH/ 75TH
PERCENTILE)...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WEST OF US-131 AND NORTH
OF GRAND RAPIDS DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. THIS IS SHOWN BY
THE NAM... GFS... ECMWF... HRRR AND RAP MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES.
THERE IS A SURFACE BASED THERMAL BOUNDARY (20 DEGREE HOLLAND / 12AT
GRAND RAPIDS) CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO NEAR GRAND
RAPIDS TO NEAR MOUNT PLEASANT. THIS IS CURRENTLY FOCUSING SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AND HELP FOCUS THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH
WARM AIR PUSH TONIGHT. ALSO HELPING THIS EVENT TOO IS THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION TO DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET
CORE. THERE IS A 3 HOUR WINDOW WHERE OUR NORTHWEST CWA WILL HAVE
SOLID NEAR SATURATED AIR FROM AROUND 1000 FT AGL TO NEAR 10,000 FT
AGL. GIVEN HOW COLD IT IS...THAT IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO LEAD TO
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
ONCE THAT IS DONE SUNDAY NIGHT WE GET THE INTERPLAY OF THAT SAME
JET EXIT REGION WITH EXIT REGION OF JET CORE LIFTING NORTHWARD
FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS RESULTS IN A COUPLED JET AND THE
PRECIPIABLE WATER SURGES EVEN HIGHER TO NEARLY A HALF INCH WITH IS
ABOUT DOUBLE NORMAL. SO I AM THINKING LIGHT SNOW IS MORE THAN
LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96 SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS MY EXPERIENCE
THAT THIS SORT OF EVENT NEARLY ALWAYS RESULTS IN MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SO I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW
ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THAT IS DONE A JET CORE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM...DIVING DUE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ARCTIC TOWARD HUDSON BY TUESDAY BRINGS
US OUR LAST SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY. SINCE THE JET CORE
THIS TIME WILL BE WELL NORTH OF MICHIGAN THIS WILL BE SHALLOW COLD
AIR AND WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE NORTHEAST SO WE GET TO SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A CHANGE! EVEN SO WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND
OVER MOST OF THE AREA IT WILL BE VERY COLD ONE LAST DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE VERY QUIET FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. WE WILL START OFF WITH A COLD MORNING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN MODERATE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WE WILL SEE A VERY COLD MORNING TUE MORNING AND AGAIN ON TUE
NIGHT/WED MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING A LIGHT GRADIENT AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WILL COMBINE WITH OUR SNOW PACK TO ALLOW MOST
TEMPS TO DROP BELOW ZERO TUE MORNING AND WED MORNING.
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL TAKE PLACE FOR WED AND THU AS RETURN
FLOW FROM THE WSW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
SOUTH...AND WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE A COLD FRONT TRY TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NW. TOUGH TO TELL HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL MAKE
IT...BUT IT COULD BRING A LOW CHC OF SNOW TO THE NRN PORTION OF THE
AREA ON THU. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL ALSO DICTATE HOW WARM WE GET.
THE GFS TAKES IT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE EURO HOLDS IT UP
NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE BEST MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL COME AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AFTER THE THU SYSTEM MOVES BY...WE WILL GET BACK INTO A RETURN FLOW
PATTERN ONCE AGAIN. A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPS AT LEAST GET INTO THE 30S BY NEXT SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015
CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG I-94 WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
DIMINISHING FOR THE TIME BEING FURTHER NORTH AT KMKG AND KGRR. WE
EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL CLEARING LINE TO SLOW UP AS IT APPROACHES
KGRR AND KMKG...SO MVFR WILL CONTINUE. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN...AND A
BATCH OF MID CLOUDS NEAR WI/MN WILL ZIP IN AFTER SUNSET. THESE
COMBINED WITH THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW BEGINNING
AROUND 22-00Z AT KMKG AND KGRR. THIS SNOW WILL DIMINISH GREATLY AS
THE LOW CLOUDS MOVE OUT AND VFR WILL TAKE OVER BY 06Z TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUN WITH ONLY A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015
I WILL ALLOW THE FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM
AS WINDS ARE NEAR 25 KNOTS OVER THE WATER AND TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE TEENS. SEEMS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 20S IN THE
NEAR SHORE THIS EVENING ALLOWING US TO LET THE WARNING EXPIRE ON
TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO SUNDAY.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH THE ICE GROWS. THANKS TO
GLERL WE KNOW THERE IS ABOUT 22% ICE COVERAGE ON LAKE MICHIGAN NOW
AND THAT IF FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015
LITTLE CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY. CONTINUED THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
FLAT RIVER NEAR SMYRNA AS IT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE BANKFULL INTO NEXT
WEEK. A COUPLE RIVERS REMAIN NEAR BUT UNDER BANKFULL AND WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED. FREEZE UP ICE JAMS MAY CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER
LEVELS INTO NEXT WEEK... BUT SERIOUS FLOODING IS NOT MUCH OF A
CONCERN UNTIL SNOWMELT AND ICE BREAKUP HAPPENS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ844>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1114 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING IS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO TURN OUT OF THE SW ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE SW WINDS REALLY PUT A DAMPER ON
TEMPERATURE DROPS OVERNIGHT...WHICH IN TURN HAS KEPT WIND CHILL
VALUES LARGELY IN THE IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE...WELL SHORT OF THE
-25 ADVY CRITERIA. UNLESS SOMETHING DRASTIC CHANGES...WILL LIKELY
CANCEL MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE ADVY WITH THE MORNING FORECAST
UPDATE.
BY THE AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW NODAK WILL
BE WORKING ACROSS MN. WAA OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP SEND
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WITH SOME 20S
LIKELY DOWN ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS FORECAST...STUCK
PRETTY CLOSE TO A RAW MODEL CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST...WHICH HAVE BEEN THE DOMINATE PIECES OF GUIDANCE
OVER THE PAST WEEK IN THE VERIFICATION DEPARTMENT. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TO GENERATE A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE BANK OF CLOUDS IN THE 4K-6K FOOT RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS SEEN WITH HRRR CLOUD FORECAST.
TONIGHT...SAID BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SE OF THE MPX AREA...WITH LIGHT NW
WINDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...CAA LOOKS PRETTY
MINIMAL BEHIND THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WE LOOK TO HAVE EXTENSIVE
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES CERTAINLY WILL
NOT CRASH. A LOOK AT VERIFICATION STATISTICS OVER THE PAST WEEK
SHOWS OUR LOW FORECASTS FOR 24 HOURS OUT HAVE HAD A PRETTY DISTINCT
COLD BIAS OF 3-6 DEGREES. DURING THIS TIME...THE BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GRIDS AND STRAIGHT RAW MODEL BLEND HAVE PERFORMED BEST FOR
LOWS...SO THIS FORECAST STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO THOSE NUMBERS...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE -10F ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MPX AREA. WITH THAT SAID...WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM FROM SE
MN INTO WRN WI...AND IF THOSE MID/UPPER CLOUDS ARE NOT THERE...THEN
TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY END UP SEVERAL DEGREE COOLER THAN WHAT WE
CURRENTLY HAVE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BECOMES PREVALENT. THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST WILL
BE THE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND THAT WILL ENSUE...WITH READINGS
CLIMBING ABOVE MID JANUARY NORMALS TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK TROUGH...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP SUNDAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS /KAXN/ TO THE LOWER TEENS /KMSP-KEAU/. A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR/HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL THREATEN THE -25 WIND CHILL CRITERIA
BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH BOTH NIGHTS LOOK
BORDERLINE FOR NEEDING AN ADVISORY.
TUESDAY BRINGS THE EXIT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING
ALLOWING FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
BY WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE 20S APPEAR ACHIEVABLE...WITH 30S
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED...THE NEXT 7 DAYS APPEAR
DRY...WITH LONG RANGE MODELS NOT INDICATING ANY SYSTEMS ENTERING
THE AREA UNTIL AROUND THE 19TH-20TH OF JANUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT LOW END VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN
ACROSS THE SE 1/3 OF MPX CWA. BASICALLY AFFECTING
KMSP/KRNH/KEAU...WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLDS OF 3-4K FOR
KRWF/KSTC/KAXN. AFT 00Z...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT S/SW
WINDS EARLY BECOMING NW/NNW OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY ALLOW FOR
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KAXN BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF LOW END VFR CIGS /3.5-4K/ WILL CONTINUE THRU
21Z...THEN VFR CONDS THRU THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM SSE ARND 6-8 KTS EARLY THIS AFTN...VEERING TO THE
SSW/SW BY THE MID/LATE AFTN...AND MORE NW THIS EVENING BUT BLW 7
KTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTN AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECT THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL INTRODUCE SCT020
CIGS OF 4K AFT 18Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN AFTN/EVENING...VFR. POSS MVFR CIGS EARLY. WINDS NW AT 5 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS N AT 5 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS S AT 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1210 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
SO FAR TODAY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. NAMELY...NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPS ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES
ALL AREAS GIVEN TRENDS SO FAR THIS MORNING...WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES SEEMINGLY ON ITS WAY
TO PUSHING MOST AREAS INTO THE 36-40 RANGE...AND MAYBE A GREATER
COVERAGE OF LOW 40S ROUGHLY SOUTHWEST OF AN ELWOOD-BELOIT LINE.
OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE ONGOING GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TAKING PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON...IN RESPONSE TO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS
AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE INVADING NORTHWEST ZONES
BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
WITH A DRY FORECAST...THE FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. TODAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE A WARMER DAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
THE EASTERN TROUGH LIFTS OUT...WITH FLOW TRANSITIONING MORE ZONAL
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT LOBE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HUDSON
BAY UPPER LOW TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST AND SENDS A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH THRU OUR REGION TONIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS ALREADY KICKED IN EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN 3-5F...AIDED BY AN INCREASING LLVL
JET. MODELS VARY WITH THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND SO FAR
MODELS HAVE INDICATED MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS THAN WHAT IS
REALITY ATTM. DO EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AROUND TODAY...BUT CLOUDS
SHOULD BE VARIABLE ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS AND TEMPS SHOULD
SEE A NICE REBOUND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. HAVE
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE RAP FOR TEMPS TODAY WHICH INDICATE HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. THE NAM IS
HOLDING ONTO TOO MUCH SNOWCOVER VS COOP OBS AND VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM FRI AFTN...AND INITIALIZED WITH SNOWFALL ACROSS
PRETTY MUCH OUR ENTIRE CWA WITH SNOW DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. GIVEN THE POOR INITIALIZATION...DID NOT
UTILIZE NAM FOR TEMPS.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AND IS SLOW TO PROGRESS THRU OUR SOUTHERN CWA. OF
INTEREST IS THAT THE SREF INDICATES HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR VSBYS
RESTRICTIONS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST
ZONES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS AREA COINCIDES WITH HIGHER MODEL
DP PROGS AND MAY BE THE RESULT OF EXPECTED SNOW MELT DUE TO MODEL
SNOWPACK INITIALIZATION. WITH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY FOG IN FORECAST AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
REALLY HASNT BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE MODELS LOOKING THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING TO SEE GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES AFFECTING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS...ONE OF WHICH
LOOKS TO BE EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS OUT OF ERN CO. THIS DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY PASS THROUGH TO OUR S ACROSS KS...WITH MUCH OF
THE MODELS SUPPORTING THE PRECIP-FREE FORECAST. CERTAINLY NOT 100
PERCENT CONFIDENT IN THAT...MAINLY DUE TO THE GFS SPITTING OUT A
LITTLE LIGHT QPF...BUT UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODELS TRENDING THAT WAY
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED ITS WAY THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...BUT
WITH THE PARENT HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...NOT A BIG PUSH OF
STRONGER NORTH WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. WILL BE A COLDER AIR
MASS BUILDING IN...AND FORECAST HIGHS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM NEAR 20
IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE HUDSON BAY AREA WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA AND THROUGH NRN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS /AND EVENTUALLY
EAST/. THE PRIMARY PUSH LOOKS TO COME SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF NRLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR. WONT BE A BIG SHOT OF
WINDS...WITH SPEEDS JUST TOPPING OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE CENTERED OFF TO THE N/NE OF THE
CWA...BUT CLOSER THAN IT WAS SUNDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...MONDAY IS FORECAST TO
BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 20 SOUTH. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
GOES...THAT SECOND PUSH OF THE FRONT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES JUST OFF TO THE S/SE OF THE CWA...BUT WILL
BE SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING SHIFTS TO MONITOR AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT BACK TO THE NW FOR OUR AREA TO POTENTIALLY BE
AFFECTED.
LOOKING TO THE TUES/TUES NIGHT TIME FRAME...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ITS WAY
SOUTH INTO THE ROCKIES MON/MON NIGHT...AND BY 12Z TUESDAY IS LOCATED
ROUGHLY OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY...AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY SWING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO BRING SOME SNOW CHANCES. THERE ARE STILL
PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES TO BE WORKED OUT WITH THE STRENGTH/TIMING/PATH
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE...AS IN GENERAL THE
BRUNT OF IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. NOT CONFIDENT IN HOW
IT WILL EVOLVE SO KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THAT 12HR PERIOD OF 00-12Z
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A REBOUND IN TEMPS COMPARED TO
MONDAY...AND HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 20S ARE FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS
TO CONTINUE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST...AS
MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS THANKS TO AT
LEAST BRIEF RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT SHOWING MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH THE FINAL 3 DAYS OF
THE PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF DOWNSLOPING W/NW WINDS MAINLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BUMPED UP HIGHS A TOUCH FOR THOSE 2 DAYS FROM
SUPERBLEND GRIDS...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ON WED
TO LOWER/MID 40S FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
AT LEAST FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE BOTH VFR/CEILING
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH
IN THIS PROSPECT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 HOURS...THERE ARE
SOME QUESTION MARKS REGARDING WHAT HAPPENS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AS SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-END MVFR AND MAYBE EVEN IFR CEILING AND/OR
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY IN AT LEAST LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE
THESE POSSIBILITIES...AM STILL A BIT SKEPTICAL THAT THESE LOW
CEILINGS/FOG WILL ACTUALLY MATERIALIZE...AND EVEN IF THEY
DO...THEY WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR AREAS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS. AS A RESULT OF THIS THINKING...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IT
VFR FOR NOW...BUT STILL HINTING AT THE SUB-VFR POSSIBILITIES WITH
A MENTION OF LOW-END VFR VISIBILITY AND "SCT010" CLOUDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOPEFULLY BY THE NEXT TAF
CYCLE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE A BIT IN WHETHER OR NOT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WARRANT INCLUSION. AS FOR SURFACE
WIND...INITIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND RIGHT AWAY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WITHIN A FEW HOURS...AND THEN TRANSITION TO
FAIRLY LIGHT AND NORTHERLY BREEZES BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
301 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS SNOW CHANCES
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WIND CHILLS NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MEAN WRN CANADA UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO ALBERTA...WILL COMBINE WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING FROM THE
LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE TREND FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS HAS BEEN A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW. HAVE UTILIZED BASICALLY A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT AND INTO THE FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST MESOSCALE RAP AND HRRR
CONTINUE TO BRING THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI. WILL STICK WITH
THE CURRENT BLEND FOR NOW. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH UNDER A HALF INCH...WITH POSSIBLY A HALF INCH TO AN INCH FROM
THE WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
TO THE NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND SHOULD DROP QUICKLY
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG BUT A STEADY 5 TO 10 MPH.
THIS WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WILL ISSUE
ANOTHER ADVISORY TO COVER THIS.
SUNDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM
NEAR ZERO NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER TEENS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
COLD WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND A LARGE SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE FORECAST CENTER OF
THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN/NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGH CENTER MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING
THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT - 5 TO 10 MPH SUNDAY EVENING AND UP TO 5 MPH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 15 TO
20 BELOW OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGH
CENTER SHOULD BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE...AND THERE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 10 TO 15 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. THESE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE WINDS UP TO
10 MPH AT TIMES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 30
BELOW ZERO RANGE (PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED LOCALES REACHING 35 BELOW
ZERO WIND CHILLS) FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH
DAKOTA.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHEAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS CHANGING FROM
NORTHWEST TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. LOOKING AT HIGHS MONDAY FROM JUST
ABOVE ZERO IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE
LOWER TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS WILL STILL BE BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO BE FELT ON TUESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS...AND
AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO BRING A MILDER PACIFIC AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. LOOKING AT HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK AS PACIFIC RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND AVERAGE (20S TO LOWER 30S) ON
WEDNESDAY...AND ABOVE AVERAGE (UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S) THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW
IN/AROUND KDIK EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON. WILL BRING IN
LOWER VFR CEILINGS AT KDIK AND HOLD OFF ON MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR NDZ002>005-011>013.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
209 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR/500 MB RAP ANALYSIS. A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE TROUGH
WITHIN THIS FLOW WAS DROPPING INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DECENT WING OF 285-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA OUT AHEAD OF IT
INTO OUR AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD EXPANSION OF
ALTOCUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS THROUGH THE DAY. NO SNOW FLURRY ACTIVITY
YET PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...BUT RADAR PICKING UP ON VIRGA AROUND
3KFT...SO EXPECTING AT LEAST A FEW FLURRIES GOING THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
LOOK FOR THE MID-LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE SLIPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF I-94 BUT THEN DROPPED THEM AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH FORCING EXITING THE AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW TO NEAR 10 ABOVE.
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...LOOKING AT ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION. NAM INDICATING DECENT AMOUNT OF
850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE TROUGH AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. BASED ON THIS SIGNAL...ADDED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING ALMOST TOTAL COLUMN SATURATION. PLAN ON
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...WITH A FEW LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. NORTHWEST WINDS AND A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH...LOOKING FOR WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 BELOW
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
COLD START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS/TEENS ABOVE ZERO WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
LOOKING AT A SLOW WARMING TREND THEN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL. THIS WILL TAP MORE
PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR INTO THE REGION WITH ARCTIC AIR RETREATING BACK
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. MODEL CONSENSUS PRODUCES HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THEN MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASE IN
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/RIDGING KEEPS ANY WEATHER WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015
VFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. BASED ON THE 10.12Z NAM...LOOKS LIKE VFR CEILINGS
IN THE 5 TO 6K FEET RANGE WILL STICK AROUND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STILL BE
OVER THE AREA FOR A HIGHER VFR CEILING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE
WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SWINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM....DAS
LONG TERM.....DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1141 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
COMPARED TO RECENT MORNINGS...TODAY WILL SEE A BENIGN START.
WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR...WITH
GUSTS PEAKING AT AROUND 40-45 MPH. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A
THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY HAS NOT DONE THE ANTICIPATED FOG
DEVELOPMENT ANY FAVORS. HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA...SO HAVE REMOVED
IT FROM THE MORNING FORECAST. OTHERWISE...HAVE SEEN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE WAVE CLOUD SINCE LAST EVENING AS MID- LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS STREAMED IN FROM THE PACNW. GOES PROVING GROUND
SYNTHETIC IMAGERY DID AN EXCELLENT JOB IN CAPTURING THIS FTR AND
SHOWS IT STICKING AROUND THRU A LARGE CHUNK OF TODAY. LLVL
GRADIENTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS WELL WHICH WILL CUT GUSTS
IN THE WIND CORRIDOR DOWN TO AROUND 25-30 MPH BY SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER TODAY AS H7 TEMPERATURES
HOVER BETWEEN 0 AND -2C. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING AT
LEAST INTO THE 30S...WITH EVEN SOME LOW/MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING PLAINS AND SRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. NW FLOW WILL BACK TO
MORE ZONAL TODAY PRODUCING A FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT INTO
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE RANGES. DID ADD SOME SNOW
CHANCES AS A RESULT...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. BY TONIGHT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TRACKING WK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EAST THRU THE CWFA TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW
CHANCES OVR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND HAVE EVEN SPREAD THEM
FARTHER DOWN THE WEST SLOPE...FROM BAGGS TO CRESTON JCT.
NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
DEPEND UPON TIMING OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH MODELS THINK THAT HIGHS
WILL BE REACHED LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
26. WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND LLVL
UPSLOPE IN ITS WAKE DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM EVEN
SUGGESTS ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR NW-SE
ORIENTED SNOW BAND DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR
NOW...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE LIGHT...BUT MAY SEE BRIEF HEAVIER
SNOW RATES SHOULD THESE BANDS MATERIALIZE. LLVL WIND FLOW TURNS
FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NT. THIS WILL SET
UP A FAVORABLE FOG SET-UP MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. HAVE ADDED FOG MENTION LATE SUNDAY NT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME FZDZ MIXED IN FOR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE THAN THE LAST EVENT.
SNOW CHANCES WILL LESSEN AND BE CONFINED WEST OF I25 ON MONDAY AS
SOUTHEAST LLVL WINDS WEAKEN OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE. TEMPS WILL BE
THE COOLEST ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS...BUT NOT ALL
THAT COLD WITH 30S TO NR 40F FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE LONG RANGE WITH THE ONLY FORECAST CONCERN
BEING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. ALL MODELS SHOW THIS PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
RAPIDLY...WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO EXPECT LIMITED
IMPACTS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE GFS AND
ECMWF GENERALLY SHOW LIGHT PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE GEM IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH
AND A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AREA. KEPT POP BETWEEN 4O TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND GENERALLY 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM
RAWLINS...TO LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. KEPT
POP BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. IN EITHER
CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE 20S AND LOW
30S FOR HIGHS.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BY THE PACIFIC TROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLOWLY MODIFYING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 ARE
POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. NO MAJOR WIND CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
WYOMING AERODROMES...VFR PREVAILS...WITH PERIODIC MVFR AT
RAWLINS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT THROUGH
01Z. FROM 10Z TO 15Z AT RAWLINS...IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PREVAIL...WITH VFR AT LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE
AND NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGES MOSTLY OBSCURED. AFTER 15Z...VFR
PREVAILS AT ALL WYOMING TAF SITES.
NEBRASKA AERODROMES...VFR PREVAILS THROUGH 06Z. FROM 06Z TO 15Z...
OCCASIONAL IFR AND MVFR IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AFTER 15Z...
VFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR PREVAIL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2015
COOL TEMPERATURES...SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND SNOW COVERED
FUELS WILL KEEP ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...CAH