Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/09/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
316 AM MST WED JAN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST WED JAN 7 2015
SHALLOW LYR OF ARCTIC AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS NERN CO WITH AREAS OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW WHICH HAS MIXED WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. APPEARS THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE MID MORNING
HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING BY LATE MORNING. IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE CAMS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DENSE FOG AS WELL
SO WILL EXTEND ADVISORY THRU MID MORNING. OVERALL AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
ICY ROADS THRU THE MID MORNING HOURS SO WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR
THE MORNING COMMUTE.
FOR THIS AFTN SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NERN CO. WILL KEEP
HIGHS OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE WITH MID
TO UPPER 20S TO AROUND THE DENVER AREA.
BY TONIGHT THE ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL MOVE FM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AS A SFC LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DVLP ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. AS A RESULT THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOM MORE SSW OVER NERN
CO. LOW TEMPS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY WHERE INVERSIONS MAY CONTINUE TO HOLD DUE TO LINGERING
SNOWPACK.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST WED JAN 7 2015
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT POISED THE REACH
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
INCREASED DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WILL BRING A
WARMER DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE NORTHEAST PLAINS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SURGE
OF MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND BACK INTO THE FOOTHILLS...SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND AREAS OF FOG. THIS TIME...THE
MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DEEPER THOUGH SO WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THERE IS STILL A
REASONABLE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY IN THE THURSDAY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SEEDER/FEEDER INTERACTION. WILL BOOST POPS MOST OF THE PLAINS AND
FOOTHILLS FOCUSING ON THE FRONT RANGE I-25 CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT CONSIDERING POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
COMPONENT. MOST OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE IN THOSE LOCALES.
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE COLDER IN A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY...SO
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES. THEN SATURDAY SHOULD SEE
BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW SO WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ROLLER COASTER
OPERATING WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SNOW
COVERED AREAS WILL STILL BE SLOW TO WARM THOUGH AS EVIDENCED BY
HIGHS OBSERVED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER MAY REACH THE AREA BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY SO
THE GOING FORECAST OF SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE OF
SNOW LOOKS GOOD. THIS SYSTEM COULD LINGER INTO THE MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS ITS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST WED JAN 7 2015
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
THRU MID MORNING AT THE AIRPORTS. AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH SOME MINOR GLAZE
POSSIBLE. IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THRU 18Z BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
MAY IMPROVE BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER IF DENVER CYCLONE STAYS SOUTH OF
DIA AS SHOWN BY HRRR AND RAP THEN THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD AFFECT BJC
AND DIA THRU LATE AFTN.
AS FAR AS WINDS BOTH HRRR AND RAP SHOW A DENVER CYCLONE STAYING
SOUTH OF DIA THRU THE AFTN WITH MAINLY ELY WINDS WHICH MAY BECOME
MORE SELY AFT 21Z. FOR THIS EVENING RAP SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DRAINAGE WINDS DEVELOP BY
03Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
COZ038>040.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ035-036-
041.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1255 PM EST WED JAN 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...BRINGING WITH
IT A CHANCE OF SNOW SQUALLS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BLUSTERY AND
BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRIDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR STRONG...TO
PERHAPS EVEN DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST. OTHERWISE...MAINLY COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECT
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...
PUFFY CUMULUS CLOUDS OUTSIDE INDICATIVE OF JUST HOW UNSTABLE THE
ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING AS ARCTIC AIR IS DRIVING S ACROSS THE
WARMER TERRAIN SUBSEQUENT OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS EARLIER TODAY.
WEATHER: CONSISTENT HRRR SIGNALS AND LOOKING UPSTREAM DECENT LINE
APPROACHING OF SNOW SQUALLS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED. SNOW-SQUALL ACTIVITY TO
PUSH INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY AFTER 1 PM...WORCESTER BY 3 PM...AND
THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR BY 4 PM. WITH SNOW-SQUALL ACTIVITY
EXPECT NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES DOWN TO
LESS THAN ONE-HALF MILE. SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY UPWARDS
OF AN INCH. EXPECT ACCOMPANYING WINDS GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH. WITH
SUCH BURSTS OF SNOW AND WIND...EXPECT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS AND TRAVEL AT SLOWER SPEEDS WHEN
ENCOUNTERING SNOW-SQUALL ACTIVITY.
WIND GUSTS: EVALUATING UPSTREAM AND NEAR THE WATERS...GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. UTILIZED A MIX-DOWN TOOL BASED ON THE
NAM / RAP THERMAL PROFILES WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY UPPED THE WIND GUSTS
FOR THE LATE-AFTERNOON INTO EVENING PERIOD. NOW EXPECTING MAX WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH GUSTS 40
TO 45 MPH OVER THE WATERS...A NUDGE UP FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST.
SUSTAINED WINDS: BLENDED NAM/WRF/RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HALVING IT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF MOS-GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDED FASTER SUSTAINED
FLOW THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS WELL AS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
PRESENT OBSERVATIONS. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS FORECAST 20 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...25 TO 35 MPH OVER THE WATERS.
E-CAPE: AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...FEEL THE WIND
TRAJECTORY MORE W WILL LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER THE E-CAPE. IT
APPEAR HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR OFFSHORE...BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE
OUT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM. AT
THIS TIME...LOW RISK OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.
TEMPERATURES / DEWPOINTS: STILL LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM / MET WITH GREATER WEIGHT LEANED
ONTO THE MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOW- TO MID-20S
WITH UPPER-TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COUPLED WITH THE WINDS
BACKING NW BEHIND THE FRONT...COLDEST WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARDS
DUSK WITH READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
*** BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING AS LOW AS 30 BELOW ZERO
FOR THURSDAY MORNING ***
TONIGHT...
THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
CHANGES TO THE EXISTING WIND CHILL HEADLINES. THINKING LATEST
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WELL...
SO UNDERCUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WILL STILL BE CONTENDING WITH OCEAN-INDUCED STRATUS AND SNOW
ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES AND FEEL
COMFORTABLE WITH THIS FORECAST WITH THE DRIER ARCTIC AIRMASS.
THURSDAY...
DANGEROUS AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 BELOW ZERO
WILL CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME RELIEF BY
AFTERNOON AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR -16C...BUT IT STILL
WILL BE VERY COLD AND WELL BELOW NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* A DUSTING TO 1 INCH OF SNOW LIKELY FRIDAY
* STRONG TO EVEN DAMAGING WINDS FRIDAY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
* MAINLY DRY AND COLD THIS WEEKEND
UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING FORCES THE POLAR JET SOUTH RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA LIKELY KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME EFFECTS FROM A STORM
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
STORM...OR POSSIBLY THE ENTIRE STORM WILL STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS TO RESOLVE AS ITS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS SNOW WITH A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN
INCH OF SNOW EXPECTED.
THE LARGER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THIS REGION AS THE WARMER AIR FLOWS OVER
THE REGION. WHILE THIS SCENARIO USUALLY DOES NOT ALLOW THE STRONGER
WINDS TO MIX DOWN THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE QUITE COLD AND WARMER
AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL ELIMINATE THE INVERSION OVER SOUTHEAST MASS.
WILL NEED AT LEAST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES OF
SOUTHEAST MASS. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO NECESSITATE A HIGH WIND WARNING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE ISLANDS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BRINGING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A COASTAL STORM
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IT TO GRAZE OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. IN ADDITION...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SNOW-SQUALLS PUSHING SE FROM 18Z OVER THE CT-VALLEY TO 0Z
ACROSS THE CAPE / ISLANDS. SCT NATURE LEADS TO DIFFICULTY IN TEMPO
OR PREVAILING CONDITIONS IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAIN IF SQUALLS WILL
MAKE A DIRECT IMPACT TO THE TERMINAL. HAVE PREVAILED -SN IN A
NARROWED TIME-FRAME TO HIGHLIGHT WHEN GREATEST RISK IS EXPECTED.
WITH ANY -SN...EXPECT MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. -SN CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST IN ADVANCE...BUT ONLY EXPECT LOW-END VFR TO MVFR.
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS INCREASED BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS. GUSTS 25 TO
35 KTS OVER THE INTERIOR...35 TO 45 KTS OVER THE WATER.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE VFR BEYOND 0Z. NW-WINDS INITIALLY STRONG WEAKEN
TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. MIX OF MVFR-IFR MAY
LINGER OVER THE E-CAPE...PERHAPS ACK...WITH NW-FLOW DUE TO OCEAN-
EFFECT STRATUS / SNOW. NW-GUSTS BY DUSK THURSDAY AROUND 10 TO 15
KTS FOR THE INTERIOR...15 TO 25 KTS ALONG THE SHORES AND WATERS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -SHSN INITIALLY WITH
ONLY A LOW-END VFR...PERHAPS MVFR. GREATER CONCERN IS WITH SNOW-
SQUALLS EXPECTED AROUND 21-23Z WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR-IFR IMPACTS.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -SHSN INITIALLY WITH
ONLY A LOW-END VFR...PERHAPS MVFR. GREATER CONCERN IS WITH SNOW-
SQUALLS EXPECTED AROUND 18-20Z WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR-IFR IMPACTS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY
VFR...HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WHERE WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 50 KTS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
1 PM UPDATE...WINDS INCREASED.
THREE CONCERNS:
* OCEAN-EFFECT SNOWS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AS WINDS BACK NW AND WITH PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...
COLDER AIR OVER THE WARMER WATERS WILL YIELD A GREATER LIKELIHOOD
FOR OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW. FOCUS OVER ALL WATERS...BUT GREATEST
IMPACTS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE FOR LOCATIONS AROUND THE E-CAPE AND
ACK. VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WILL FALL AS LOW AS 1 MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES.
* GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS
GALE FORCE WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH
PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GUSTS
OF 35 TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT THEN
TAPERING THEREAFTER. GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
* FREEZING SPRAY
WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING 10 TO 14 FEET WITH AN
AVERAGE OCEAN TEMPERATURE AROUND 42-DEGREES...THE COMBINATION OF
CHOPPY SEAS AND STRONG WINDS WILL YIELD MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
ESPECIALLY FOR NEAR-SHORE LOCATIONS WHERE THE WATERS ARE SHALLOW
AND COLDER. WORST OF CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY DUSK AND CONTINUING
INTO MID-MORNING THURSDAY. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL LEAD TO WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR STORM FORCE ON FRIDAY
MORNING. GALES ARE A LOCK FOR ALL WATERS FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR STORM WARNINGS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS WINDS AND SEAS TO
SUBSIDE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT...
BOSTON... -6 SET IN 1878
HARTFORD... -7 SET IN 1968
WORCESTER... -11 SET IN 1968
PROVIDENCE... -4 SET IN 1968
RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...
BOSTON... 6 SET IN 1968
HARTFORD... 5 SET IN 1968
WORCESTER... -2 SET IN 1968
PROVIDENCE... 7 SET IN 1968
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MAZ005>007-010>022-026.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008-009.
RI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ230.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ231-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ236-250.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/RLG/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...WFO BOX STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1205 PM EST WED JAN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE
REGION. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH WIND CHILLS WELL
BELOW ZERO AS WINDS INCREASE EVEN MORE TODAY. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ARE
POSSIBLE BY EARLY IN THE DAY. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL APPEAR AGAIN AT THE START
OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /LATE MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 923 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
COULD MAKE THERE WAY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE FRIGID WIND CHILLS OVER ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -15 TO
-25 DEGREES. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILLS FROM ZERO TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
PICKED UP ON EXCEPT THE SREF AND HRRR MOVED INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING AND STARTED PRODUCING SNOW AT LAF AND
CONTINUES TO DO SO AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...CURRENTLY STILL SNOWING HERE AT IND BUT SHOULD END AROUND 6
AM. HAD TO UPDATE THE MORNING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SREF AND HRRR IN DISAGREEMENT ABOUT WHEN THE
SNOW WILL EXIT THE AREA. THE HRRR HAS THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING OR
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z...WHILE THE SREF DOES NOT MOVE THE SNOW OUT
OF THE AREA UNTIL 15Z. LEANED CLOSER TO THE SREF SOLUTION BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SO THERE WILL BE SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FROM AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. LEFT IN LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE LETS UP EARLY THIS EVENING.
NOW WE TURN TO THE BIG STORY OF THE DAY AND NEXT 24+ HOURS: THE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER COMPLETING
MOST OF THE FORECAST...OPTED TO MAKE ONE ADJUSTMENT TO THE
HEADLINES. REALIZED THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHICH WAS
THEN UNDER A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING BY
8AM...A MERE COUPLE OF HOURS. AND SINCE THE WINDS WILL ONLY GROW
STRONGER THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET
DECIDED TO DO THE UPGRADE EARLY AND GO WITH A WARNING NOW.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT AT THIS CRITERIA YET BUT WILL BE SHORTLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE LEFT THE REST OF THE HEADLINES INTACT...INCLUDING
THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHICH CAN BE FOUND
UNDER THE PRODUCT ID INDWSWIND. BOTH HEADLINES ARE SET TO EXPIRE AT
10 AM THURSDAY MORNING.
THOSE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE MAY ALSO CAUSE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA WHERE MORE SNOW WAS RECEIVED YESTERDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA IS PROBABLY LOOKING AT THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE DAY RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURE WILL PLUMMET AS
MENTIONED SO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 12Z TODAY TO 00Z THU WILL
ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...RANGING FROM 0 (NW) TO NEAR 10 ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH. BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED TO DO A GREAT JOB.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE MAJOR FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A
BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT MODEL NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SNOWPACK...OWING TO
MODEL TENDENCIES TO UNDERESTIMATE THE MAGNITUDE OF ARCTIC OUTBREAKS.
THIS RESULTS IN MIN TEMPS TONIGHT BELOW ZERO ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH LOWS AROUND -10 OR BELOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY BUT
REMAIN QUITE COLD. SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH...MAY NOT SEE THE 20 DEGREE MARK UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN TONIGHT AS WINDS STAY
STRONG AND STEADY. CURRENT WIND CHILL WARNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH HANDLES THIS WELL AND WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED. EXPIRATION BY 10AM THURSDAY MORNING STILL LOOKS GOOD THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK LITTLE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH. NO
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO SLOWLY MODERATE INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER STILL VERY COLD AND BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. GFS SHOWS
A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION FROM ONE HIGH TO THE NEXT BUT THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE HIGHS AND BRINGS
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY KEPT THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM THE
INITIALIZATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON...BUT SHOULD NOTE THAT COULD
JUST AS EASILY SEE DRY WEATHER AS WET WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 071800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST WED JAN 7 2015
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE SOME
BLOWING SNOW AT KIND AND KLAF TAF SITES.
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY AND TO THE
CAROLINAS BY THIS TIME THURSDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAYBE A FEW CU THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING AND BROKEN MID
CLOUDS AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 18 KNOTS AND GUSTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
25 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. ON THURSDAY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 12 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ051>057-
060>065-067>072.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
952 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE
REGION. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH WIND CHILLS WELL
BELOW ZERO AS WINDS INCREASE EVEN MORE TODAY. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ARE
POSSIBLE BY EARLY IN THE DAY. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL APPEAR AGAIN AT THE START
OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /LATE MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 923 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
COULD MAKE THERE WAY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE FRIGID WIND CHILLS OVER ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -15 TO
-25 DEGREES. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILLS FROM ZERO TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
PICKED UP ON EXCEPT THE SREF AND HRRR MOVED INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING AND STARTED PRODUCING SNOW AT LAF AND
CONTINUES TO DO SO AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...CURRENTLY STILL SNOWING HERE AT IND BUT SHOULD END AROUND 6
AM. HAD TO UPDATE THE MORNING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SREF AND HRRR IN DISAGREEMENT ABOUT WHEN THE
SNOW WILL EXIT THE AREA. THE HRRR HAS THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING OR
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z...WHILE THE SREF DOES NOT MOVE THE SNOW OUT
OF THE AREA UNTIL 15Z. LEANED CLOSER TO THE SREF SOLUTION BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SO THERE WILL BE SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FROM AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. LEFT IN LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE LETS UP EARLY THIS EVENING.
NOW WE TURN TO THE BIG STORY OF THE DAY AND NEXT 24+ HOURS: THE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER COMPLETING
MOST OF THE FORECAST...OPTED TO MAKE ONE ADJUSTMENT TO THE
HEADLINES. REALIZED THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHICH WAS
THEN UNDER A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING BY
8AM...A MERE COUPLE OF HOURS. AND SINCE THE WINDS WILL ONLY GROW
STRONGER THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET
DECIDED TO DO THE UPGRADE EARLY AND GO WITH A WARNING NOW.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT AT THIS CRITERIA YET BUT WILL BE SHORTLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE LEFT THE REST OF THE HEADLINES INTACT...INCLUDING
THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHICH CAN BE FOUND
UNDER THE PRODUCT ID INDWSWIND. BOTH HEADLINES ARE SET TO EXPIRE AT
10 AM THURSDAY MORNING.
THOSE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE MAY ALSO CAUSE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA WHERE MORE SNOW WAS RECEIVED YESTERDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA IS PROBABLY LOOKING AT THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE DAY RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURE WILL PLUMMET AS
MENTIONED SO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 12Z TODAY TO 00Z THU WILL
ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...RANGING FROM 0 (NW) TO NEAR 10 ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH. BLEND OF GUIDANCES SEEMED TO DO A GREAT JOB.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE MAJOR FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A
BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT MODEL NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SNOWPACK...OWING TO
MODEL TENDENCIES TO UNDERESTIMATE THE MAGNITUDE OF ARCTIC OUTBREAKS.
THIS RESULTS IN MIN TEMPS TONIGHT BELOW ZERO ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH LOWS AROUND -10 OR BELOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY BUT
REMAIN QUITE COLD. SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH...MAY NOT SEE THE 20 DEGREE MARK UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN TONIGHT AS WINDS STAY
STRONG AND STEADY. CURRENT WIND CHILL WARNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH HANDLES THIS WELL AND WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED. EXPIRATION BY 10AM THURSDAY MORNING STILL LOOKS GOOD THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK LITTLE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH. NO
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO SLOWLY MODERATE INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER STILL VERY COLD AND BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. GFS SHOWS
A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION FROM ONE HIGH TO THE NEXT BUT THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE HIGHS AND BRINGS
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY KEPT THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM THE
INITIALIZATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON...BUT SHOULD NOTE THAT COULD
JUST AS EASILY SEE DRY WEATHER AS WET WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 071200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 559 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF ALL SITES BUT KBMG BY ISSUANCE TIME.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KLAF. AT OTHER SITES THINK CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE AS AT THE
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUD DECK HAS SLOWED A BIT OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. AT KBMG SHOULD SEE SNOW BANDS HANG AROUND UNTIL 12-13Z
AND HAVE SAME CONCERNS ABOUT MVFR CEILINGS HANGING AROUND THERE. MAY
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. ALSO THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW TODAY AS WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND 20-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT RIGHT
NOW THESE SAME CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT KLAF AND IT IS NOT
RESULTING IN ANY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY SO WILL LIKELY LEAVE OUT
OF TAFS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
5-12 KTS AND WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ051>057-
060>065-067>072.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE
REGION. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH WIND CHILLS WELL
BELOW ZERO AS WINDS INCREASE EVEN MORE TODAY. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ARE
POSSIBLE BY EARLY IN THE DAY. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL APPEAR AGAIN AT THE START
OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
A DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
PICKED UP ON EXCEPT THE SREF AND HRRR MOVED INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING AND STARTED PRODUCING SNOW AT LAF AND
CONTINUES TO DO SO AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...CURRENTLY STILL SNOWING HERE AT IND BUT SHOULD END AROUND 6
AM. HAD TO UPDATE THE MORNING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SREF AND HRRR IN DISAGREEMENT ABOUT WHEN THE
SNOW WILL EXIT THE AREA. THE HRRR HAS THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING OR
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z...WHILE THE SREF DOES NOT MOVE THE SNOW OUT
OF THE AREA UNTIL 15Z. LEANED CLOSER TO THE SREF SOLUTION BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SO THERE WILL BE SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FROM AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. LEFT IN LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE LETS UP EARLY THIS EVENING.
NOW WE TURN TO THE BIG STORY OF THE DAY AND NEXT 24+ HOURS: THE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER COMPLETING
MOST OF THE FORECAST...OPTED TO MAKE ONE ADJUSTMENT TO THE
HEADLINES. REALIZED THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHICH WAS
THEN UNDER A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING BY
8AM...A MERE COUPLE OF HOURS. AND SINCE THE WINDS WILL ONLY GROW
STRONGER THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET
DECIDED TO DO THE UPGRADE EARLY AND GO WITH A WARNING NOW.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT AT THIS CRITERIA YET BUT WILL BE SHORTLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE LEFT THE REST OF THE HEADLINES INTACT...INCLUDING
THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHICH CAN BE FOUND
UNDER THE PRODUCT ID INDWSWIND. BOTH HEADLINES ARE SET TO EXPIRE AT
10 AM THURSDAY MORNING.
THOSE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE MAY ALSO CAUSE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA WHERE MORE SNOW WAS RECEIVED YESTERDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA IS PROBABLY LOOKING AT THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE DAY RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURE WILL PLUMMET AS
MENTIONED SO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 12Z TODAY TO 00Z THU WILL
ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...RANGING FROM 0 (NW) TO NEAR 10 ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH. BLEND OF GUIDANCES SEEMED TO DO A GREAT JOB.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE MAJOR FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A
BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT MODEL NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SNOWPACK...OWING TO
MODEL TENDENCIES TO UNDERESTIMATE THE MAGNITUDE OF ARCTIC OUTBREAKS.
THIS RESULTS IN MIN TEMPS TONIGHT BELOW ZERO ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH LOWS AROUND -10 OR BELOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY BUT
REMAIN QUITE COLD. SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH...MAY NOT SEE THE 20 DEGREE MARK UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN TONIGHT AS WINDS STAY
STRONG AND STEADY. CURRENT WIND CHILL WARNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH HANDLES THIS WELL AND WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED. EXPIRATION BY 10AM THURSDAY MORNING STILL LOOKS GOOD THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK LITTLE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH. NO
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO SLOWLY MODERATE INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER STILL VERY COLD AND BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. GFS SHOWS
A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION FROM ONE HIGH TO THE NEXT BUT THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE HIGHS AND BRINGS
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY KEPT THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM THE
INITIALIZATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON...BUT SHOULD NOTE THAT COULD
JUST AS EASILY SEE DRY WEATHER AS WET WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 071200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 559 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF ALL SITES BUT KBMG BY ISSUANCE TIME.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KLAF. AT OTHER SITES THINK CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE AS AT THE
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUD DECK HAS SLOWED A BIT OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. AT KBMG SHOULD SEE SNOW BANDS HANG AROUND UNTIL 12-13Z
AND HAVE SAME CONCERNS ABOUT MVFR CEILINGS HANGING AROUND THERE. MAY
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. ALSO THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW TODAY AS WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND 20-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT RIGHT
NOW THESE SAME CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT KLAF AND IT IS NOT
RESULTING IN ANY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY SO WILL LIKELY LEAVE OUT
OF TAFS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
5-12 KTS AND WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ051>057-
060>065-067>072.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
440 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE
REGION. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH WIND CHILLS WELL
BELOW ZERO AS WINDS INCREASE EVEN MORE TODAY. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ARE
POSSIBLE BY EARLY IN THE DAY. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL APPEAR AGAIN AT THE START
OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
A DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
PICKED UP ON EXCEPT THE SREF AND HRRR MOVED INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING AND STARTED PRODUCING SNOW AT LAF AND
CONTINUES TO DO SO AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...CURRENTLY STILL SNOWING HERE AT IND BUT SHOULD END AROUND 6
AM. HAD TO UPDATE THE MORNING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SREF AND HRRR IN DISAGREEMENT ABOUT WHEN THE
SNOW WILL EXIT THE AREA. THE HRRR HAS THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING OR
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z...WHILE THE SREF DOES NOT MOVE THE SNOW OUT
OF THE AREA UNTIL 15Z. LEANED CLOSER TO THE SREF SOLUTION BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SO THERE WILL BE SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FROM AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. LEFT IN LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE LETS UP EARLY THIS EVENING.
NOW WE TURN TO THE BIG STORY OF THE DAY AND NEXT 24+ HOURS: THE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER COMPLETING
MOST OF THE FORECAST...OPTED TO MAKE ONE ADJUSTMENT TO THE
HEADLINES. REALIZED THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHICH WAS
THEN UNDER A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING BY
8AM...A MERE COUPLE OF HOURS. AND SINCE THE WINDS WILL ONLY GROW
STRONGER THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET
DECIDED TO DO THE UPGRADE EARLY AND GO WITH A WARNING NOW.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT AT THIS CRITERIA YET BUT WILL BE SHORTLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE LEFT THE REST OF THE HEADLINES INTACT...INCLUDING
THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHICH CAN BE FOUND
UNDER THE PRODUCT ID INDWSWIND. BOTH HEADLINES ARE SET TO EXPIRE AT
10 AM THURSDAY MORNING.
THOSE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE MAY ALSO CAUSE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA WHERE MORE SNOW WAS RECEIVED YESTERDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA IS PROBABLY LOOKING AT THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE DAY RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURE WILL PLUMMET AS
MENTIONED SO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 12Z TODAY TO 00Z THU WILL
ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...RANGING FROM 0 (NW) TO NEAR 10 ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH. BLEND OF GUIDANCES SEEMED TO DO A GREAT JOB.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE MAJOR FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A
BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT MODEL NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SNOWPACK...OWING TO
MODEL TENDENCIES TO UNDERESTIMATE THE MAGNITUDE OF ARCTIC OUTBREAKS.
THIS RESULTS IN MIN TEMPS TONIGHT BELOW ZERO ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH LOWS AROUND -10 OR BELOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY BUT
REMAIN QUITE COLD. SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH...MAY NOT SEE THE 20 DEGREE MARK UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN TONIGHT AS WINDS STAY
STRONG AND STEADY. CURRENT WIND CHILL WARNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH HANDLES THIS WELL AND WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED. EXPIRATION BY 10AM THURSDAY MORNING STILL LOOKS GOOD THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK LITTLE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH. NO
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO SLOWLY MODERATE INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER STILL VERY COLD AND BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. GFS SHOWS
A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION FROM ONE HIGH TO THE NEXT BUT THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE HIGHS AND BRINGS
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY KEPT THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM THE
INITIALIZATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON...BUT SHOULD NOTE THAT COULD
JUST AS EASILY SEE DRY WEATHER AS WET WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 070900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT MVFR TO IFR SNOW HAS PASSED SOUTH OF KHUF AND
KIND...BUT SET OF NW TO SE ORIENTED SNOW BANDS HAS FORMED BEHIND IT.
THIS WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO LAST AT KIND AND KHUF
UNTIL 11-12Z. CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN THE BANDS COULD BE VFR TO MVFR
SO WILL GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR AND TEMPO IFR DURING THIS TIME. AT
KLAF SHOULD SEE THE SNOW COME TO AN END SHORTLY IF IT HASN/T ALREADY
BUT COULD SEE SOME ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW SO MAY ADD THAT IN. AT
KBMG HAVEN/T SEEN THE SNOW DEVELOP BUT STILL THINK IT IS POSSIBLE
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS THERE SIMILAR TO KIND.
EXPECT GUSTS AT OR OVER 25KT BY 10-13Z. THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 22-24Z.
CLOUDS WILL LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT BULK OF THE AREA TO
REMAIN VFR. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM 08-12Z
OR SO MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES...BUT AT THE MOMENT FEEL ODDS ARE
LOW ENOUGH TO JUST MENTION VCSH.
LOWER CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR INZ051>057-060>065-067>072.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50/CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
218 AM MST WED JAN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW CONTINUING FROM THE THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN PACE ACROSS OUR
CWA ON EASTERN EXTENT OF LEE TROUGH CENTERED OVER COLORADO.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO CWA TONIGHT.
REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES/TYPES...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED
TO ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT. BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT IS
ADVERTISED IN THE WEST WHERE MODEL QPF IS SHOWING BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL...SO I RAISED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN COLORADO COUNTIES
09-12Z PERIOD. WHILE SATURATION DOES OCCUR BELOW 700MB...MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS WEAK AND THOUGHTS ARE ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. PRECIP TYPE IS ANOTHER CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
BEGINS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND SURFACE FRONT THIS EVENING...YET TEMP
PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCOOLED LIQUID. SATURATION AT TEMPS BELOW -8C
DOESNT OCCUR OVER OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 09Z. I COULD SEE VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIP...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...POSSIBLY SLEET (SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER IS AT LEAST 2500 FT DEEP). SINCE PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT I AM NOT THINKING THIS WOULD AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT I CANT RULE OUT SOME SLICK SPOTS
DEVELOPING DUE TO A LIGHT GLAZE. REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...I CANT
SEE OUR CWA RECEIVING MUCH MORE THAN ONE INCH AND THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE FAR WEST. SNOW MAY LINGER IN EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD
COMPLETELY TAPPER OFF BY THE AROUND MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER BEST PRESSURE RISES QUICKLY TRANSITION SOUTH.
BY TIME PRECIP IS OCCURRING I DO NOT THINK WE WOULD SEE STRONG
ENOUGH GUSTS TO CREATE A BLOWING SNOW THREAT. MAYBE MINOR DRIFTING
SNOW DUE TO WINDS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE (MAINLY IN EASTERN
COLORADO).
REGARDING TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS...VERY COLD AIR MASS MOVES BACK
OVER THE CWA AFTER 06Z...AND HOW LOW TEMPS GET WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY LIMITED RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED
MIXING DUE TO POSSIBLE PRECIP/WIND. I STILL EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MORNING TEMPS AROUND ZERO OR COLDER IN OUR NE CWA (MCCOOK/NORTON).
I THINK IT IS MORE LIKELY WE SEE A BIGGER DROP OFF IN WINDS
SIMILAR TO NAM SURFACE WINDS...AS SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WHILE WIND CHILLS MAY BE AROUND -15F...BUT I AM NOT CONFIDENT
THIS WOULD BE WIDESPREAD OR PERSISTENT.
WITH ALL THIS SAID...NO ADVISORY (WINTER WEATHER OR WIND CHILL)
WILL BE ISSUED DURING THIS UPDATE...BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FREEZING PRECIP COVERAGE AND WIND CHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED JAN 7 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...HAVE GONE WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST THIS RUN. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF FROM
SUGGESTING A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC
NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD HAVE LED TO SOME WARMING FOR OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS LESS LIKELY NOW BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ONE THING TO NOTE FROM THIS RUN OF THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE...THERE
MAY BE A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW...MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL DEVELOPS A FAIRLY POTENT
LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS OUR
REGION. SOME GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO INDICATE THIS SOLUTION BUT
NOT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE CURRENT EUROPEAN MODEL RUN. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT AT LEAST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.
MOST LIKELY SOLUTION PRESENTLY IS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD AND KMCK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW
HOURS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KMCK BY SUNRISE AND
BY LATE MORNING AT KGLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1036 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW CONTINUING FROM THE THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN PACE ACROSS OUR
CWA ON EASTERN EXTENT OF LEE TROUGH CENTERED OVER COLORADO.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO CWA TONIGHT.
REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES/TYPES...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED
TO ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT. BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT IS
ADVERTISED IN THE WEST WHERE MODEL QPF IS SHOWING BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL...SO I RAISED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN COLORADO COUNTIES
09-12Z PERIOD. WHILE SATURATION DOES OCCUR BELOW 700MB...MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS WEAK AND THOUGHTS ARE ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. PRECIP TYPE IS ANOTHER CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
BEGINS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND SURFACE FRONT THIS EVENING...YET TEMP
PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCOOLED LIQUID. SATURATION AT TEMPS BELOW -8C
DOESNT OCCUR OVER OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 09Z. I COULD SEE VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIP...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...POSSIBLY SLEET (SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER IS AT LEAST 2500 FT DEEP). SINCE PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT I AM NOT THINKING THIS WOULD AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT I CANT RULE OUT SOME SLICK SPOTS
DEVELOPING DUE TO A LIGHT GLAZE. REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...I CANT
SEE OUR CWA RECEIVING MUCH MORE THAN ONE INCH AND THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE FAR WEST. SNOW MAY LINGER IN EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD
COMPLETELY TAPPER OFF BY THE AROUND MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER BEST PRESSURE RISES QUICKLY TRANSITION SOUTH.
BY TIME PRECIP IS OCCURRING I DO NOT THINK WE WOULD SEE STRONG
ENOUGH GUSTS TO CREATE A BLOWING SNOW THREAT. MAYBE MINOR DRIFTING
SNOW DUE TO WINDS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE (MAINLY IN EASTERN
COLORADO).
REGARDING TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS...VERY COLD AIR MASS MOVES BACK
OVER THE CWA AFTER 06Z...AND HOW LOW TEMPS GET WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY LIMITED RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED
MIXING DUE TO POSSIBLE PRECIP/WIND. I STILL EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MORNING TEMPS AROUND ZERO OR COLDER IN OUR NE CWA (MCCOOK/NORTON).
I THINK IT IS MORE LIKELY WE SEE A BIGGER DROP OFF IN WINDS
SIMILAR TO NAM SURFACE WINDS...AS SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WHILE WIND CHILLS MAY BE AROUND -15F...BUT I AM NOT CONFIDENT
THIS WOULD BE WIDESPREAD OR PERSISTENT.
WITH ALL THIS SAID...NO ADVISORY (WINTER WEATHER OR WIND CHILL)
WILL BE ISSUED DURING THIS UPDATE...BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FREEZING PRECIP COVERAGE AND WIND CHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS. WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRIEFLY BENEFIT FROM A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MID
AFTERNOON BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER FORCING
WILL BE QUITE WEAK...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 INCLUDING
NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN
-6C AND -10C THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND NOT REACH -12C UNTIL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO EXPECT A GENERAL TRANSITION FROM FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL MIXES OF ALL 3 POSSIBLE. EVEN THOUGH QPF
WILL BE VERY LIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITH THE
WINTRY MIX EXPECTED.
BEYOND FRIDAY...THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY INTO EASTERN
CANADA. NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE WEEKEND THEN TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TO NONE IN THIS
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL VERY SLOWLY MODERATE BUT REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD AND KMCK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE POSSIBLIITY OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW
HOURS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KMCK BY SUNRISE AND
BY LATE MORNING AT KGLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1102 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WE HAVE SEEN WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WELL AS STEADY RISE IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WSR-88D
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS PORTION OF CENTRAL
AND FAR NORTHERN KY TONIGHT. MUCH OF THIS WOULD AT MOST PRODUCE
FLURRIES GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THIS IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND...HOWEVER EVEN WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE THERE WERE
SOME OBS IN SOUTHERN OH THAT DID REPORT LIGHT SNOW. GIVEN THIS OPTED
TO KEEP BLUEGRASS DRY AT THIS POINT. THE QUESTION IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT WOULD BE THE UPSTREAM FRONT AND HOW MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE
MAKES IT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW. MODELS INCLUDING MESOSCALE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LITTLE TO NO PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT.
RIGHT NOW THIS BAND OF PRECIP IS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN IL AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT. UPDATED
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS IS
BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS EVENING...WITH
HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. WSR-
88D RADAR DOES INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS APPROACHING EASTERN
KY...HOWEVER NONE OF THESE RETURNS ARE ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND AT
THIS POINT. UPDATED WITH LATEST OBS AND TREND WITH FORECAST ON TRACK
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE EXISTS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FOUND BETWEEN THE LOW
TO THE NORTH AND THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS TURNING THE WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING THEIR SPEEDS...NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA FIRST AND THE SOUTH LATER. THE EARLIER SUNSHINE...THESE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN WINDS...AND THE DEPARTING HIGH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S IN MOST
PLACES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH THE WARMER VALUES GENERALLY FOUND IN
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE STILL RATHER
LOW...RIGHT AROUND ZERO.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE MAIN PATTERN THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
DEPICT A DEEP SECONDARY TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY BEFORE RETREATING TO THE EAST DURING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY AND
ALLOWING THE HEIGHTS TO REBOUND. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT ALOFT WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL BLEND BUT FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR
FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A REINFORCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS...CONDITIONS WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS WITH THE GFS
PALTRY AND THE NAM12 A BIT MORE ROBUST. THE HRRR MEANWHILE KEEPS
THINGS DRY WITH THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH 08Z. THE SREF POPS HAVE ALSO
DROPPED WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. DO EXPECT SOME
FLURRIES AND A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO AROUND AS THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH
BUT IT SHOULD BE NOWHERE AS EXTENSIVE OR OCCASIONALLY INTENSE AS IT
WAS WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE. ACCORDINGLY...WILL KEEP
MENTION OF THE SNOW THREAT MAINLY IN THE HWO WHILE ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. POST FRONTAL...EXPECT BRISK WEST WINDS TO BRING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST
PLACES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AND SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS WITH SOME MINOR TERRAIN BASED POINT
ADJUSTMENTS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. GIVEN THE NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE RAW
CONSENSUS MODEL DATA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP HIGHER THAN ALL MOS FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEN AGREED WITH THEIR LOW SINGLE DIGITS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO MORE
SYSTEMS POISED TO AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY WITH VERY DRY AIR HOLDING OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THANKS TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. IN
FACT...WE MAY SEE SOME FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WITH MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE. A
MODEST WARM NOSE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE INITIALLY...CLOUD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ON
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE BIG QUESTION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING IS HOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESPOND. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME AREAS MAY NOT CLIMB BACK TO AROUND FREEZING UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME FREEZING RAIN. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO RESIDE ALONG OR NORTH OF I-64...BUT SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD BE AT PLAY AS WELL. CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. ON MONDAY...WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP EVERYTHING RAIN FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL
BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD...BUT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE EXITING. THIS MAY
YIELD EITHER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS
OUT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OF AN ISSUE HERE...BUT WE SHOULD SEE A FEW
SLICK ROADS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF A
LULL AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WE COULD
SEE SOME FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD IN THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. OUR NEXT
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM SUPPRESSED TO OUR
SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER...BUT FARTHER NORTH. BOTH MODELS
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF MORE SNOW AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE...JUST
A QUESTION OF WHERE AND HOW MUCH. CLEARLY THIS SYSTEM REMAINS AROUND
THE DAY 7 PERIOD AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...NOT GOING TO SPEND TOO
MUCH TIME ON THE DETAILS AS THEY ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE ANYWAYS.
HOWEVER...MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH AROUND THIS SYSTEM AS THE COLD AIR HAS ALL RETREATED WELL
TO OUR NORTH BY THIS TIME. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH OF A WARM NOSE
EITHER...SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A WET SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION TODAY GIVING WAY MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. TONIGHT WE DO SEE HIGHER CLOUDS
SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN KY AND THIS TREND OF HIGH TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WE ARE WATCHING
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING THAT HAS
MAINLY BROUGHT HIGH TO MID CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY WITH
VIRGA BEING REPORTED ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. OTHERWISE FOCUS SHIFTS
TOWARD A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOST MODELS ARE KEEPING MOISTURE AT
A MINIMUM AT THIS TIME. EVEN MANY OF THE MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY
VALUES ARE QUITE MEAGER. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
OF SEEING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TOMORROW. THINKING THE BEST POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW WOULD BE AT SITES SYM/JKL/SJS...THEREFORE KEPT WITH TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THOSE SITES. THIS LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES COULD BRING CONDITIONS DOWN
TO MVFR BRIEFLY....OTHERWISE EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RETURN FLOW HAS BROUGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS TO
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SWITCH TO WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
743 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 742 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS IS
BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS EVENING...WITH
HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. WSR-
88D RADAR DOES INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS APPROACHING EASTERN
KY...HOWEVER NONE OF THESE RETURNS ARE ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND AT
THIS POINT. UPDATED WITH LATEST OBS AND TREND WITH FORECAST ON TRACK
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE EXISTS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FOUND BETWEEN THE LOW
TO THE NORTH AND THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS TURNING THE WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING THEIR SPEEDS...NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA FIRST AND THE SOUTH LATER. THE EARLIER SUNSHINE...THESE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN WINDS...AND THE DEPARTING HIGH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S IN MOST
PLACES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH THE WARMER VALUES GENERALLY FOUND IN
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE STILL RATHER
LOW...RIGHT AROUND ZERO.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE MAIN PATTERN THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
DEPICT A DEEP SECONDARY TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY BEFORE RETREATING TO THE EAST DURING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY AND
ALLOWING THE HEIGHTS TO REBOUND. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT ALOFT WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL BLEND BUT FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR
FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A REINFORCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS...CONDITIONS WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS WITH THE GFS
PALTRY AND THE NAM12 A BIT MORE ROBUST. THE HRRR MEANWHILE KEEPS
THINGS DRY WITH THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH 08Z. THE SREF POPS HAVE ALSO
DROPPED WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. DO EXPECT SOME
FLURRIES AND A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO AROUND AS THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH
BUT IT SHOULD BE NOWHERE AS EXTENSIVE OR OCCASIONALLY INTENSE AS IT
WAS WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE. ACCORDINGLY...WILL KEEP
MENTION OF THE SNOW THREAT MAINLY IN THE HWO WHILE ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. POST FRONTAL...EXPECT BRISK WEST WINDS TO BRING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST
PLACES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AND SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS WITH SOME MINOR TERRAIN BASED POINT
ADJUSTMENTS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. GIVEN THE NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE RAW
CONSENSUS MODEL DATA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP HIGHER THAN ALL MOS FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEN AGREED WITH THEIR LOW SINGLE DIGITS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO MORE
SYSTEMS POISED TO AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY WITH VERY DRY AIR HOLDING OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THANKS TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. IN
FACT...WE MAY SEE SOME FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WITH MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE. A
MODEST WARM NOSE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE INITIALLY...CLOUD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ON
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE BIG QUESTION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING IS HOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESPOND. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME AREAS MAY NOT CLIMB BACK TO AROUND FREEZING UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME FREEZING RAIN. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO RESIDE ALONG OR NORTH OF I-64...BUT SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD BE AT PLAY AS WELL. CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. ON MONDAY...WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP EVERYTHING RAIN FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL
BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD...BUT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE EXITING. THIS MAY
YIELD EITHER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS
OUT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OF AN ISSUE HERE...BUT WE SHOULD SEE A FEW
SLICK ROADS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF A
LULL AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WE COULD
SEE SOME FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD IN THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. OUR NEXT
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM SUPPRESSED TO OUR
SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER...BUT FARTHER NORTH. BOTH MODELS
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF MORE SNOW AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE...JUST
A QUESTION OF WHERE AND HOW MUCH. CLEARLY THIS SYSTEM REMAINS AROUND
THE DAY 7 PERIOD AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...NOT GOING TO SPEND TOO
MUCH TIME ON THE DETAILS AS THEY ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE ANYWAYS.
HOWEVER...MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH AROUND THIS SYSTEM AS THE COLD AIR HAS ALL RETREATED WELL
TO OUR NORTH BY THIS TIME. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH OF A WARM NOSE
EITHER...SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A WET SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION TODAY GIVING WAY MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. TONIGHT WE DO SEE HIGHER CLOUDS
SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN KY AND THIS TREND OF HIGH TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WE ARE WATCHING
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING THAT HAS
MAINLY BROUGHT HIGH TO MID CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY WITH
VIRGA BEING REPORTED ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. OTHERWISE FOCUS SHIFTS
TOWARD A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOST MODELS ARE KEEPING MOISTURE AT
A MINIMUM AT THIS TIME. EVEN MANY OF THE MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY
VALUES ARE QUITE MEAGER. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
OF SEEING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TOMORROW. THINKING THE BEST POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW WOULD BE AT SITES SYM/JKL/SJS...THEREFORE KEPT WITH TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THOSE SITES. THIS LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES COULD BRING CONDITIONS DOWN
TO MVFR BRIEFLY....OTHERWISE EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RETURN FLOW HAS BROUGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS TO
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SWITCH TO WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
652 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE EXISTS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FOUND BETWEEN THE LOW
TO THE NORTH AND THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS TURNING THE WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING THEIR SPEEDS...NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA FIRST AND THE SOUTH LATER. THE EARLIER SUNSHINE...THESE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN WINDS...AND THE DEPARTING HIGH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S IN MOST
PLACES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH THE WARMER VALUES GENERALLY FOUND IN
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE STILL RATHER
LOW...RIGHT AROUND ZERO.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE MAIN PATTERN THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
DEPICT A DEEP SECONDARY TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY BEFORE RETREATING TO THE EAST DURING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY AND
ALLOWING THE HEIGHTS TO REBOUND. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT ALOFT WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL BLEND BUT FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR
FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A REINFORCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS...CONDITIONS WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS WITH THE GFS
PALTRY AND THE NAM12 A BIT MORE ROBUST. THE HRRR MEANWHILE KEEPS
THINGS DRY WITH THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH 08Z. THE SREF POPS HAVE ALSO
DROPPED WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. DO EXPECT SOME
FLURRIES AND A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO AROUND AS THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH
BUT IT SHOULD BE NOWHERE AS EXTENSIVE OR OCCASIONALLY INTENSE AS IT
WAS WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE. ACCORDINGLY...WILL KEEP
MENTION OF THE SNOW THREAT MAINLY IN THE HWO WHILE ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. POST FRONTAL...EXPECT BRISK WEST WINDS TO BRING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST
PLACES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AND SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS WITH SOME MINOR TERRAIN BASED POINT
ADJUSTMENTS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. GIVEN THE NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE RAW
CONSENSUS MODEL DATA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP HIGHER THAN ALL MOS FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEN AGREED WITH THEIR LOW SINGLE DIGITS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO MORE
SYSTEMS POISED TO AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY WITH VERY DRY AIR HOLDING OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THANKS TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. IN
FACT...WE MAY SEE SOME FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WITH MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE. A
MODEST WARM NOSE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE INITIALLY...CLOUD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ON
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE BIG QUESTION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING IS HOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESPOND. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME AREAS MAY NOT CLIMB BACK TO AROUND FREEZING UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME FREEZING RAIN. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO RESIDE ALONG OR NORTH OF I-64...BUT SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD BE AT PLAY AS WELL. CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. ON MONDAY...WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP EVERYTHING RAIN FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL
BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD...BUT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE EXITING. THIS MAY
YIELD EITHER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS
OUT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OF AN ISSUE HERE...BUT WE SHOULD SEE A FEW
SLICK ROADS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF A
LULL AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WE COULD
SEE SOME FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD IN THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. OUR NEXT
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM SUPPRESSED TO OUR
SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER...BUT FARTHER NORTH. BOTH MODELS
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF MORE SNOW AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE...JUST
A QUESTION OF WHERE AND HOW MUCH. CLEARLY THIS SYSTEM REMAINS AROUND
THE DAY 7 PERIOD AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...NOT GOING TO SPEND TOO
MUCH TIME ON THE DETAILS AS THEY ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE ANYWAYS.
HOWEVER...MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH AROUND THIS SYSTEM AS THE COLD AIR HAS ALL RETREATED WELL
TO OUR NORTH BY THIS TIME. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH OF A WARM NOSE
EITHER...SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A WET SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION TODAY GIVING WAY MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. TONIGHT WE DO SEE HIGHER CLOUDS
SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN KY AND THIS TREND OF HIGH TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WE ARE WATCHING
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING THAT HAS
MAINLY BROUGHT HIGH TO MID CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY WITH
VIRGA BEING REPORTED ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. OTHERWISE FOCUS SHIFTS
TOWARD A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOST MODELS ARE KEEPING MOISTURE AT
A MINIMUM AT THIS TIME. EVEN MANY OF THE MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY
VALUES ARE QUITE MEAGER. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
OF SEEING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TOMORROW. THINKING THE BEST POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW WOULD BE AT SITES SYM/JKL/SJS...THEREFORE KEPT WITH TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THOSE SITES. THIS LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES COULD BRING CONDITIONS DOWN
TO MVFR BRIEFLY....OTHERWISE EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RETURN FLOW HAS BROUGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS TO
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SWITCH TO WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
349 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND
A BROAD TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN
WNW CYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UPPER MI WAS DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...A 1051 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER W
CNTRL CANADA RIDGING INTO THE PLAINS WAS SLOWLY BUILDING TO THE EAST
BRINGING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. UPSTREAM TEMPS OVER MUCH OF
NW ONTARIO RANGED FROM -5F TO -15F LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
320-340 FLOW LES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER THIS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A REINFORCING BATCH OF VERY COLD AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
-30C...RESULTING IN VERY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE...LAKE
INDUCED CAPE OVER 1K J/KG. HOWEVER....THE COLD WILL DROP THE DGZ
BELOW 3K FT...KEEPING SLR VALUES CLOSER TO 20/1. THE HIGHER RES
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV AND HEAVIEST LES
WILL DEVELOP INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI OVER ALGER COUNTY AND N
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS UP TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OVER THE WEST...THE SHORTER FETCH
AND LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO
THE 2 TO 6 INCH RANGE. AN ADVY WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY
EVEN THOUGH OVERALL AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE
EXPECTED. LOCATIONS NEAR BIG BAY AND EAST OF HARVEY COULD SEE SOME
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS. M-28 BETWEEN HARVEY AND MUNISING
COULD ALSO SEE SOME OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AS NW WINDS GUST
INTO THE 30-40 MPH RANGE NEAR THE SHORE.
A WIND CHILL WARNING WAS POSTED FOR THE INTERIOR WEST WITH WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO AROUND -35. THE STRONGER WINDS AND SOME LAKE
MODIFICATION WILL LIMIT TEMP FALL OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WITH MINS
IN THE -5F TO 10F RANGE. HOWEVER...THE 10-20 MPH WINDS WILL STILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LOWER WIND CHILLS TO AROUND -30...SOLIDLY INTO THE
ADVY RANGE(-25 TO -35). CONDITIONS WILL ONLY SLOWLY MODERATE WED
MORNING AS THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE.
AS WINDS BACK STEADILY INTO WED AFTERNOON...THE LES WILL SHIFT AND
DIMINISH OVER MOST LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER....A MORE
FAVORABLE FETCH INTO THE KEWEENAW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN LES
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST 12Z THU WITH A BROAD
AND DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY. A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR COMES ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT MAINTAINS THE DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON THU WHICH EXITS THE
CWA THU NIGHT. WILL SEE ABOUT AN 18 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW AND WILL GET ABOUT 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW OUT OF THIS THU AND THU
EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL THU AFTERNOON AS BEST MOISTURE
MOVES THROUGH AND THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT THU EVENING. WENT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS THU AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST OTHERWISE. WILL PROBABLY NEED TO HAVE SOME MORE WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING...THEN AGAIN THU
NIGHT AND FRI...BUT WANT TO GET THE ONGOING EVENT OUT OF THE WAY
FIRST BEFORE ISSUING ANOTHER AND WILL LET DAYSHIFT ISSUE THE NEXT
WIND CHILL STUFF FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING AND ELIMINATE ANY
CONFUSION THAT WOULD BE CAUSED BY MULTIPLE HEADLINES.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP AND BROAD 500 MB TROUGH
OVER MOST OF THE U.S. 12Z SAT WITH COLD AIR OVER THE AREA. UPPER
PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR SUN OR MON AND THEN SOME
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS ON TUE. MORE TROUGHING WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CONTINUING IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FAVORED SNOWBELTS UNTIL ABOUT
TUESDAY. DID ADD IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SAT NIGHT WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF A CLIPPER PASSING BY MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND ECMWF
SHOWS THAT POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
AT CMX...LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED NW
FLOW LES AND BLOWING SNOW. WITH VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR...FINE
SNOWFLAKES ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS. AT KIWD...EXPECT IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN NW FLOW LES OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. AT
KSAW...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN NW FLOW LES AND BLSN. AS
WINDS BACK OFFSHORE W-SW WED AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HRS EVENTUALLY GOING TO
VFR AT BOTH KIWD AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...WITH
INTERMITTENT GALES. CURRENTLY HAVE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS
POSTED ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ACTIVE WEATHER FORECAST
WITH GALE EVENTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THE NW GALES DEVELOPING TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WRLY LATE WED
AND THEN DIMINISH ON THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THU
NIGHT INTO FRI WILL BRING THE NEXT PERIOD OF NW GALES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ004-084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ001>007-012-013-084-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ006-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ001>003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009-013-014.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MIZ009>011.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ006-007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ005.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY
FOR LSZ240>251-263>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ241>245-
248-263>265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
240.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY
FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1239 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND
A BROAD TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN
WNW CYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UPPER MI WAS DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...A 1051 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER W
CNTRL CANADA RIDGING INTO THE PLAINS WAS SLOWLY BUILDING TO THE EAST
BRINGING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. UPSTREAM TEMPS OVER MUCH OF
NW ONTARIO RANGED FROM -5F TO -15F LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
320-340 FLOW LES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER THIS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A REINFORCING BATCH OF VERY COLD AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
-30C...RESULTING IN VERY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE...LAKE
INDUCED CAPE OVER 1K J/KG. HOWEVER....THE COLD WILL DROP THE DGZ
BELOW 3K FT...KEEPING SLR VALUES CLOSER TO 20/1. THE HIGHER RES
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV AND HEAVIEST LES
WILL DEVELOP INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI OVER ALGER COUNTY AND N
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS UP TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OVER THE WEST...THE SHORTER FETCH
AND LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO
THE 2 TO 6 INCH RANGE. AN ADVY WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY
EVEN THOUGH OVERALL AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE
EXPECTED. LOCATIONS NEAR BIG BAY AND EAST OF HARVEY COULD SEE SOME
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS. M-28 BETWEEN HARVEY AND MUNISING
COULD ALSO SEE SOME OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AS NW WINDS GUST
INTO THE 30-40 MPH RANGE NEAR THE SHORE.
A WIND CHILL WARNING WAS POSTED FOR THE INTERIOR WEST WITH WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO AROUND -35. THE STRONGER WINDS AND SOME LAKE
MODIFICATION WILL LIMIT TEMP FALL OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WITH MINS
IN THE -5F TO 10F RANGE. HOWEVER...THE 10-20 MPH WINDS WILL STILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LOWER WIND CHILLS TO AROUND -30...SOLIDLY INTO THE
ADVY RANGE(-25 TO -35). CONDITIONS WILL ONLY SLOWLY MODERATE WED
MORNING AS THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE.
AS WINDS BACK STEADILY INTO WED AFTERNOON...THE LES WILL SHIFT AND
DIMINISH OVER MOST LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER....A MORE
FAVORABLE FETCH INTO THE KEWEENAW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN LES
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY COVERING EASTERN CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE TROUGH IN PLACE...WAVES OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION AND LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN A LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY AND A HIGH IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT THE LAKE
EFFECT TO TRANSITION TO THE WESTERLY WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS...LARGELY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE EAST OF MUNISING. INVERSION HEIGHTS DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOK TO BE AROUND 6-7KFT AND IT APPEARS DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE OF THE LES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER.
A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA WILL STRENGTHEN A TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN DRAG
IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF STRONG BUT BRIEF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERIOD OF
LIKELY POPS AS THAT CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STILL THINK
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 0.5-2.0 INCH RANGE...BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON SNOW RATIOS AS SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE A VERY
DEEP CLOUD WITHIN THE DGZ WHICH COULD PRODUCE RATIOS OF 25-30 TO
ONE.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER...ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT WILL DEVELOP AS
850MB TEMPS FALL FROM -16C AT 18Z THURSDAY TO -26C BY 12Z FRIDAY
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE PRESENT AND
FAIRLY HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW
DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THE LAST COUPLE
OF EVENTS...EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO LEAD TO SNOW RATIOS AND FINER
FLAKES...THUS LEADING TO SNOW THAT IS EFFICIENT AT REDUCING
VISIBILITIES. AS A STARTING POINT...HAVE PUT 12HR AMOUNTS OF 2-4IN
FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS BELTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND IN THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AREAS ON FRIDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW WIND CHILLS...WITH
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE -20 TO -30 DEGREE
RANGE.
THE POCKET OF VERY COLD AIR WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LEADING TO A VERY SLOW MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES ALOFT
UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO
TRANSITION TO THE WESTERLY WIND AREAS ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER HIGH DROPS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL START TO DIMINISH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE FINAL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST-NORTHEAST. THAT WILL ALLOW A HIGH TO MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES ON TUESDAY...BUT KEEP A LINGERING RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE RIDGE...COMBINED WITH
MODERATING 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C...WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING
LES CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES STARTING TO TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015
AT CMX...LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED NW
FLOW LES AND BLOWING SNOW. WITH VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR...FINE
SNOWFLAKES ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS. AT KIWD...EXPECT IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN NW FLOW LES OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. AT
KSAW...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN NW FLOW LES AND BLSN. AS
WINDS BACK OFFSHORE W-SW WED AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HRS EVENTUALLY GOING TO
VFR AT BOTH KIWD AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...WITH
INTERMITTENT GALES. CURRENTLY HAVE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS
POSTED ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ACTIVE WEATHER FORECAST
WITH GALE EVENTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THE NW GALES DEVELOPING TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WRLY LATE WED
AND THEN DIMINISH ON THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THU
NIGHT INTO FRI WILL BRING THE NEXT PERIOD OF NW GALES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ004-084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ001>007-012-013-084-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ006-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
003.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ001>003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-007-009-013-014.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ009>011.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005>007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY
FOR LSZ240>251-263>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ243>245-248>251-
264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
240>242-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY
FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
WINDY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN
THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE NEAR THE LAKESHORE.
THE COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. A SLOW WARM UP BEGINS SUNDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
NO HEADLINE OR SIGNIFICANT FCST CHANGES ARE NECESSARY THIS
EVENING. WNW TO NW FLOW LES BANDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME HEAVIER
AND MORE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES VERY LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS H8 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND -24 C
BY 12Z WED. THE COMBINATION OF OCCASIONALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND COLD TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
STORM TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
I CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY I ISSUED AROUND NOON FOR
THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES FROM AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (ARW...NMM...NAM AND AS FAR
OUT AS IT NOW GOES THE HRRR) ALL SHOW A DOMINANT SNOW BAND SETTING
UP FROM AROUND MUSKEGON THROUGH GRAND HAVEN THROUGH THE CITY OF
ALLEGAN AND THROUGH OSHTEMO BY 01 AM. THAT BAND ONLY VERY SLOWLY
ROTATES CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE BY 7 AM. FROM THERE IT REMAINS A
GOOD PART OF THE DAY ONLY TO ROTATES BACK INLAND SLIGHTLY LATE IN
THE DAY BUT BY THEN IT IS WEAKENING.
THE NAM...ARW...NMM...RAP AND HRRR ALL SHOW STRONG LIFT NEAR AND
JUST ABOVE THE DGZ... MOISTURE DEPTH TO 8000 FT...AND WINDS
NORTHWEST (310-320 DEGREES) WITH ONLY MINOR SHIFTING IN DIRECTION
BETWEEN 1 AM AND 2 PM WEDNESDAY IN THAT DOMINANT SNOW BAND LOCATION.
SOME LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE THE BEST LIFT IS ABOVE THE DGZ...THE
DGZ IS NEARLY ON THE GROUND. EVEN SO THE LIFT IS IMPRESSIVE AND
PERSISTENT FOR OVER 12 HOURS IN NEARLY THE SAME LOCATIONS. SO...I
HAVE TO IMAGINE 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS MORE THAN LIKELY IN THAT
AREA. I DO NOT SEE BLOWING SNOW AS A MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT
SINCE WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
SHORE (YOU HAVE TO BE ON THE BEACH TO GET WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN 30
MPH). STILL THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 MPH INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
ADVISORY SHOULD INCLUDE ALL OF THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES FROM
MASON THROUGH VAN BUREN. I WILL HAVE LAKE COUNTY IN THE ADVISORY
TOO BUT IT WILL REALLY ONLY BE ITS EXTREME WESTERN SECTION THAT
WILL BE IMPACTED.
REST OF SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
FORECAST CONCERNS AFTER WEDNESDAY DEAL WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
CERTAINLY THE COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A LARGE...1052MB...HIGH IS
PROGD TO SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS WILL WARM...TEMPS OVER THE LAKE WILL STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED AND IT/S POSSIBLE WE/LL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES AS APPARENT TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY/LL BE AROUND -15 OR
SO. WE/LL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. H8 TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND -22C. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SYNOPTIC SNOW AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND MAY ACCUMULATE 3-6 INCHES...HIGHEST OVER THE
WESTERN CWA. WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THAT TOO.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
DUE TO A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT... SNOW WILL BE
FALLING AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY... WHEN CONDITIONS START TO BECOME
UNFAVORABLE. SATURDAY AFTERNOON... COULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB
WARMING AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING LESS CYCLONIC. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MAY POSSIBLY PASS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY... BRIEFLY INCREASING THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW. HAVE SOME SNOW CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY... AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A MODERATING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FRIDAY... SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXIST LATE THIS EVENING AS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
BETWEEN IFR IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/VFR OUTSIDE OF THEM.
BY 09Z WE EXPECT THAT THE TERMINALS EAST OF A LINE FROM MKG TO AZO
WILL BECOME PREDOMINATELY VFR AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS END DUE
TO THE WINDS BECOMING NORTH NORTHWEST. MKG AND AZO MEANWHILE WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACTED BY THE SNOW BANDS SO THESE TWO SITES SHOULD
BE IFR MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
HIGHER AT MKG SINCE AZO WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE SNOW BANDS.
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY... DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE BACKING TO
THE WEST. THE SNOW BANDS NEAR THE LAKESHORE SHOULD MOVE BACK
INLAND AGAIN AFTER 00Z THUR DUE TO THE BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
TO SIMPLIFY THINGS...WE ENDED THE SCA A LITTLE EARLY AND BUMPED UP
THE GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TO BEGIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT AND WILL GUST TO 40 KNOTS. GIVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
OVER THE LAKE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AND MARINERS CAN
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE UP ICE JAMS ON AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. RIVERS ARE BECOMING ICE COVERED. AVERAGE AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL BELOW 20 DEGREES... WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE TEENS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN ICE
FORMATION.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
043-050-056-064-071.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
328 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WAS TIMING A CLIPPER INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWING SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONCERNS THU
AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT.
FOR THE SNOW...MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH A WNW-ESE ORIENTED
BAND OF SNOW WITH TOTAL QPF OF AROUND 0.15 FALLING. WHERE THEY STILL
DISAGREE IS HOW FAR NORTH/SOUTH THAT BAND WILL BE. COMPARING
RUN-TOTAL QPFS THRU 12Z THU FROM VARIOUS MODELS TO WHAT THE RAP HAS
THROUGH THAT TIME /WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY THE END OF IT FORECAST
PERIOD/...IT INDICATES THE ECMWF IS RUNNING A LITTLE SLOW AND
NORTH...WHILE THE GEM IS FAST AND SOUTH. IN BETWEEN...AND MATCHING
UP WELL WITH WHAT THE RAP HAS THRU 12Z THU WERE THE SREF AND
NAM...SO BLENDED THE QPF FORECAST THAT DIRECTION...RESULTING IN
0.1-0.15" MELTED PRECIP BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...WHICH
RESULTED IN A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
UNLIKE SUNDAY NIGHTS SNOW WHEN ALMOST OUR ENTIRE PROFILE WAS COLDER
THAN -20C...RESULTING IN SNOW RATION CLOSER TO 10:1...PROFILES WITH
THIS SNOW ARE WARMER...WITH DEEPER SECTIONS IN THE ATMO GETTING INTO
THE FAVORED DGZ. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SNOW RATIOS UP MORE IN THE
16-19:1 RANGE...WHICH TRANSLATES TO A GOOD 1-3...MAYBE 4 INCHES
WITHIN THE HEAVIEST QPF SWATH. AMOUNTS WILL TAIL OFF PRETTY QUICK SW
OF I-94...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A LITTLE
BIT OF SNOW...WHICH WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR THU AFTN/NIGHT FOR WHEN
THE STRONG NW WINDS ARRIVE.
AS FOR THE WINDS...NOT MUCH CHANGED WITH THE GOING FORECAST. WE
STILL LOOK TO GET INTO STRONG CAA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO ABOVE 900 MB. NAM SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOW A SOLID 8-10 HOURS OUT AT RWF/FRM WHERE MIX DOWN WINDS ARE 35
KTS IN THE MID CHANNEL...WITH 45 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
CHANNEL...WHICH SHOULD EASILY TRANSLATE INTO FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 40
MPH. FOR BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARD ISSUES...THE BIG QUESTION WHERE AND
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. FOR THE AREA WITH THE BLIZZARD WATCH...A QUICK
TOUR OF ROADSIDE CAMERAS ACROSS THAT AREA SHOWED A SNOW PACK THAT
HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD IN THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND WILL
NEED SOME FRESH SNOW TO GET SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW ISSUES GOING.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE BLIZZARD WATCH AREA ALSO LOOKS TO BE THE PART OF
THE MPX CWA THAT SEES THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW...SO THE QUESTION
IS...IS A HALF INCH OF FRESH SNOW ENOUGH TO CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES THAT ARE STILL IN PLACE...LEFT
THE BLIZZARD WATCH IN PLACE...BUT RIGHT NOW...WOULD PLACE THE ODDS
AT NEEDING AN WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR BLOWING SNOW BEING HIGHER THAN
SEEING IT UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. WITH THAT SAID...THE GEM
SHOWS ALMOST OUR ENTIRE CWA GETTING 2 INCHES OF SNOW...AND IF THAT
WERE TO HAPPEN...THEN A BLIZZARD WARNING WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
WHERE THE WATCH CURRENTLY IS.
OUTSIDE OF THE BLIZZARD WATCH...WE WILL LIKELY NEED AN ADVY FOR
BLOWING SNOW AS WELL...AS ALTHOUGH THE MEAGER SNOW CURRENTLY ON THE
GROUND IN CENTRAL MN IS NOT GOING TO CREATE BLSN ISSUES...A FRESH
INCH OF POWDER WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN BLOWING
SNOW...THOUGH THE LACK OF EXISTING SNOW COVER SHOULD KEEP
VISIBILITIES IN CHECK. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A ISSUING AN
ADVY AT THIS TIME UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDEL ON EXACTLY WHERE AND
HOW MUCH SNOW WE WILL SEE ACROSS MN. FOR ERN MN AND WRN WI...AN ADVY
SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED AS ONE...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT GET TO OUR
ADVY CRITERIA...WHILE LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD TO FEWER ISSUES WITH
BLOWING SNOW.
OF COURSE WE CAN NOT FORGET THAT WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND
ZERO...WE ARE STILL SEEING WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -20F AND -30F.
HOWEVER...LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO COME BY 3Z IN WC MN AND 6Z IN WC WI
AS THE COMBINATION OF WINDS TURNING TO THE SW AND BRINGING IN WAA
ALONG WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE NW WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR
RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER 3Z/6Z. THESE RISING TEMPERATURES EXPLAIN
WHY WC AND CENTRAL MN WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WIND CHILL ADVY AS WIND
CHILL VALUES THERE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW...AS THIS
WILL BE THE "WARMEST" PART OF THE MPX CWA FOR ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
FRIDAY/S THERMAL PROFILE IS COMPARABLE TO TODAY/S 92H/85H TEMPS...OR
A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THIS BASICALLY TRANSLATES TO MORNING LOWS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE ADDED NEW
SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WIND SPDS WILL ALSO BE
SIMILAR WITH 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST SFC
TEMPS/WIND SPD...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE CLOSE AGAIN TO WARNING
CRITERIA WHICH IS -35F OR LOWER FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE THAT COULD BE A HIGH END WIND CHILL ADVISORY BASED
ON THIS MORNING VALUES.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
GRADUAL BREAK DOWN ON THE MEAN TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PART OF NORTH
AMERICA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE
ACROSS NE CANADA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
POSSIBLY ZONAL FLOW BY LATE NEXT WEEK IN OUR REGION. NO MAJOR
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST.
SOME OF THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALY OF 85H/50H HEIGHTS/TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ALSO INDICATE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPS SLOWLY RISE FROM NEAR ZERO ON FRIDAY...TO THE TEENS
AND 20S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND OF
THE EC/GFS MEAN 85H TEMPS AND THICKNESS VALUES OF THE 100-50H...DOES
SHOW NEAR FREEZING SFC TEMPS OR ABV FREEZING BY LATE NEXT WEEK...AND
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THIS AGAIN IS BASED ON THE SLOW
TRANSITION OF THE MEAN TROUGH...TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE STRONG DEVELOPMENT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR OF THE
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST WED JAN 7 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN TAFS IS TIMING SNOW IN THU MORNING. NAM/GFS PRETTY
SIMILAR WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THIS CLIPPER...SO STUCK CLOSE TO
THEIR TIMING. FOR THE TAFS...FAVORED THE SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING OF
THE GFS...THOUGH AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SNOW TO START WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AT MOST OF WHAT THE TAFS HAVE. FOR THE MOST
PART...EXPECT 1-2SM VIS WITH THE SNOW...BUT DO THINK ALL BUT RWF
WILL SEE A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD WHERE VSBYS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE
1/2SM-3/4SM RANGE...HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS SEEN. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WE SHOULD JUST BE ABLE TO REFINE THE TIMING SEEN NOW.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN ANOTHER COUPLE INCH SNOW EVENT
IMPACTING MSP...WITH ITS TIMING CENTERED AROUND 18Z. WINDOW FOR
SNOW ONSET LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 1330Z AND 15Z. WILL LIKELY HAVE A
2-3 HOUR WINDOW WHERE RATES AT TIMES GET UP INTO THE 3/4 INCH PER
HOUR RANGE. GIVEN COLD CONDITIONS...THIS WILL AGAIN BE A LOWER
DENSITY AND DRY SNOW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS WNW 15G25 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ053-060>070-
073>078-082>085-091>093.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ064-065-067-073>076-082>085-091>093.
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1150 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1002 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2015
Band of snow over west central has been taking shape the past
couple of hours as band of mid level frontogenesis has been
strengthening per recent runs of the RAP. Reports under the band
have been generally light to moderate in intensity with little in
the way of accumulations. RAP shows that the frontogenesis will
move quickly across central and east central Missouri into
southwest Illinois through 10Z. Have gone with likely PoPs in the
path of this band with potential of up to 1/2 inch of snowfall
given the speed of this system. Otherwise the rest of the forecast
still looks on track with wind chills falling into advisory range
by early morning over northeast MO/west central IL.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight-Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2015
Cold air in the wake of last night`s clipper currently building into
area, but the true motherload of Arctic air is still up in the
northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley and charging our way.
It`s difficult to determine exactly where the leading edge of this
even colder AMS is, but going by NW winds gusting into the 20-30kt
range seems to suggest it has reached e SD and sw MN attm.
Latest hi-res and synoptic guidance generally supports going temp
and wind trends for tonight and into Wednesday, and by any measure
the next 24 hours are going to be extremely cold. Temperatures will
begin to drop over the next few hours but should really begin to
tumble after midnight when the next round of Arctic air hits, and by
mid morning Wednesday expect ambient air temps of -3 to -5 over our
N counties, with readings near 10 above hanging on in far s sections
of the FA. These temps, combined with the sustained NW winds of
15-20 mph will lead to bitterly cold wind chills...easily in the -15
to -25 range over the northern half of the CWA. Current wind chill
headlines still look to be on the mark, but I have expanded the
advisory to include another row of counties from Crawford Co MO to
Randolph Co IL to blend with headlines planned by SGF and PAH.
Due to the bare ground we should see a bit of a temperature bounce
during the afternoon, but it will be very minimal.
Models are still forecasting a quick shot of snow across the CWA
overnight, in entrance region of 160kt jet core over the lower Great
Lakes. 850-700mb frontogenetic forcing suggests a slightly more
northern track of this narrow snow band, and light snow is now
showing up on regional 88D imagery just west of FSD. So, have made
a slight nwd adjustment to the slight chance/low chance PoPs. Its
certainly possibly that there will be an extremely narrow corridor
where the PoPs should be much higher and that could receive some
accumulating snow, but this adjustment will have to wait until radar
echoes begin to show the orientation and location of this narrow
band.
An aside...we recently received a call from St. Francois County that
underground pops and booms are occurring. Believe these may be ice
or frost quakes...cryoseisms. If that is indeed the case, these
reports should certainly increase due to the aforementioned
temperature trends.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday Night-Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2015
(Wednesday Night through Friday)
Temperatures remain the primary forecast concern for the rest of
the work week as the midweek intrusion of Arctic air moves to the
east, followed by another...but less intense...round of Arctic air
on Friday.
Wednesday night`s lows will be interesting as the center of the
Arctic high tracks from eastern KS to the Ohio Valley. The night
will certainly begin very cold over our n counties, but the return
flow developing on the north side of the surface high combined
with some increase of mid and high clouds should inhibit a big
nocturnal temp drop, and actually expect a bit of a rebound in
temps in the 06-12z time frame due to the increase in mixing and
clouds that is progged over this area. However, With the ridge
axis hanging over over the eastern Ozarks during the predawn hours
temperatures in the south should fall most of the night, and it
may be that some locations here will be as cold as those in the
north. As mentioned yesterday it is difficult to get mins below
zero without snow cover, but it certainly looks like most areas
will be able to achieve this on Wednesday night due to the strength
of the cold air.
The southeast push of the ridge across the area will also produce
some odd wind chill trends. Some areas in the advisory will likely
warm above criteria for a time on Wednesday evening, before the
increasing winds in the return flow drop them back into the
criteria by daybreak. It may well be that we will have to make
some adjustments in the headlines once we can better pin down
these trends.
No major changes to going forecasts for Thursday-Friday. The
return flow should produce a bit of a moderation on Thursday, with
temps dropping once again on Friday as the next batch of Arctic
air pours into the mid-Mississippi Valley. I did trend just a bit
colder on Friday night, as center of the next surface ridge
should be parked over the area for much of the night.
(Saturday-Tuesday)
Medium range guidance still indicates a very gradual moderation in
temps heading into the start of the new week as the flow pattern
transitions to a zonal flow look over the central CONUS. I`ve also
continued some chance snow PoPs in the Sunday-Tuesday time
frame...although the signals are certainly not strong, model consensus
does indicate some warm advection as well as dynamics will be
impacting the region during this time frame.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2015
Snow has overspread the the area along and north of the I-70
corridor. While most of the area is still reporting VFR
conditions, there are areas reporting IFR vsbys with readings
between 1-2SM. Radar presentation indicates these are transient
bands of heavier snow, and that these lowered vsbys won`t last
very long at any given location. Snow should end from north to
south through the pre-dawn hours, with some lingering flurries
south of the I-70/I-64 corridors through early morning. Still
thinking there will be lingering ceilings between 2000-3000FT
at least through late morning, but very dry air associated with
the arctic airmass moving into the area should help to break up
the ceilings later in the day. Northwest winds sustained at 15 to
20kts with gusts to 30kts will continue behind the Arctic front at
least through early afternoon before calming down during the
evening. This will cause crosswind issues on any southeast-
northwest oriented runways.
Specifics for KSTL:
Bands of snow will affect Lambert for the next several hours.
While vsbys will likely stay in MVFR range for the majority of the
time, occasional heavier snow will likely cause the visibility to
drop to 2SM or below periodically. Radar presentation of the bands
of snow suggests that the drops in visibility will be brief when
they occur. Snow should taper off and end between 09Z and 11Z.
Still think MVFR ceilings between 2000-3000FT will hang around
into late morning or early afternoon, but drier air should allow
the ceilings to break up later in the day. Northwest winds
sustained at 15 to 20kts with gusts to 30kts will continue behind
the Arctic front at least through early afternoon before calming
down during the evening.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 8 AM to 10 PM CST Wednesday FOR
Crawford MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 6 AM Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday FOR
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-
St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.
WIND CHILL WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday FOR
Knox MO-Lewis MO.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 8 AM to 10 PM CST Wednesday FOR
Randolph IL.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 6 AM Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday FOR
Bond IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
WIND CHILL WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday FOR
Adams IL-Brown IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
844 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015
UA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NRN QUEBEC WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE
EASTERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE CONUS...RIDGING WAS PRESENT UP THE WEST
COAST OF THE CONUS INTO ALASKA. A VERY ACTIVE H5 PATTERN CONTINUES
OVER THE CONUS THIS AM WITH STRONG HT FALLS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE WITH 100 TO 200 METER HT FALLS
NOTED FROM THE DAKOTAS NWD INTO MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. FURTHER
EAST...100 TO 150 METER HT RISES EXTENDED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NWD
TO LAKE ERIE. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TDY. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS SLID THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS OF
MID MORNING WITH A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA AS OF NOONTIME. THIS
FEATURE HAS MADE IT INTO THE SANDHILLS AND WAS APPROACHING THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AS OF 3 PM CST. TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN
CWA PEAKED LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO DROP THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SRN CWA...TEMPS HAVE FLAT LINED DURING THE NOONTIME
HOURS AND HAVE BEGUN TO FALL MID AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 19 AT VALENTINE...TO 44 AT
IMPERIAL.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS SHERIDAN AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES AS
INDICATED THE METAR AT PINE RIDGE AND 3 NEDOR OBSERVATIONS. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED.
A MILD REWORK OF TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TONIGHT USING THE RAP AND
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SUGGESTS GARDEN COUNTY WILL FALL TO -20 WIND
CHILL BY MORNING SO THIS COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS MOST OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AREA THIS EVENING. THE BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015
ONGOING STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ON TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES DID WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S FARTHER SOUTH
JUST BEFORE THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSED...AND THAT WAS JUST ENOUGH
TO MELT ENOUGH SNOW TO FORM A CRUST...AND BLOWING SNOW HAS NOT BEEN
AN ISSUE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN A SLOWLY
DIMINISHING FASHION. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA INTO THIS EVENING...AND THEN BEGIN TO TAPER AS WINDS
DIMINISH. WINDS ARE CONVERGING IN A ZONE AROUND THE BLACK HILLS
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
IN THIS CONVERGENCE AREA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL FURTHER
REDUCE VISIBILITY WHEN COMBINED WITH BLOWING SNOW.
LATER TONIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD COVER DIMINISH...BUT ENOUGH WIND WILL
REMAIN TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HAVE POSTED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL FRIDAY. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
FOR WELCOME SUNSHINE...BUT COLD CONDITIONS DESPITE THE SUN AS ARCTIC
AIR WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON THE AREA DUE TO ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THE HIGH IN THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IN THE MID RANGE
PERIODS...TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE
OZARKS. THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WAS ANCHORED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON
FRIDAY...WILL RETREAT EAST AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING WEST OF THIS FEATURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE EARLY IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL WITH RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS
THE FRONT TRACKS EAST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE FRONT WILL HOLD TEMPS UP AS WELL ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND
WEST. THE INHERITED FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES MADE TO THE MIN TEMP FCST AND T GRIDS. FOR SATURDAY...THE
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST WHILE WEST OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SD/NEBR BORDER BY 21Z SATURDAY. SOUTH
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AND WEST OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 30S WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 40 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. IF WE
CAN MIX OUT SATURDAY...WE MAY SEE SOME 40S...HOWEVER...THE GFS AND
NAM SOLNS LIMIT MIXING SATURDAY...THUS A MORE CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMP
FCST WAS UTILIZED. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FROPA APPEARS TO BE A DRY ONE ATTM WITH LITTLE
OR NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION NOTED. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS FAR NRN
NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER TEENS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...TO
THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA...EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH
OF THIS FEATURE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL FAVOR INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT RANGES AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS
MID LEVEL FORCING DROPS SOUTH FROM MONTANA INTO WYOMING AND NERN
COLORADO. DECIDED TO INSERT A LOW POP CHANCE IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE SECOND ARCTIC FROPA...DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE AND
MID LEVEL FORCING...WHICH IS PRESENT IN THE WESTERN CWA. FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EASTERLY WINDS MONDAY...AND CLOUD COVER
WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE TEENS. ON TUESDAY...SRLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA...HOWEVER...ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS FROM
MONDAYS. BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP...FORCING THE ARCTIC AIR EAST WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE 30S. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY 03Z AND MVFR/LOCAL IFR IS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR ALL AREAS EXCEPT ALONG HIGHWAY 61 WHERE THE RAP
INDICATES LOW CIGS UNTIL 06Z. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THEREAFTER
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN. THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS ACROSS
WRN NEB IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND WEST THIS EVENING AND EXIT
THE FCST AREA 03Z-06Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ TO 10 AM CST /9 AM
MST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ004>010-022>024-094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
929 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT WILL SET UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY
BUT MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE NEW YORK THRUWAY.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 20S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATED AT 915 PM... FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS LIGHT SNOW IS
SPREADING EAST ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WILL REACH WESTERN
NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
SNOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2 AM AND 5 AM. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION NAM/RAP FORECAST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT A
MINIMA OF SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR OVER OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS WITH 10
TO 25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSLOPING EAST OF THE HIGHER
ALLEGHENY MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHWEST NY.
HOWEVER HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL INDICATED FOR THE POCONOS AND
WESTERN CATSKILLS EAST OF I-81 WHICH ARE FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE AND WILL EXPERIENCE UPSLOPE FLOW LATER TONIGHT. THE
TERRAIN EFFECTS BEING INDICATED BY THE NAM AND RAP APPEAR TO BE
REASONABLE WITH FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ONGOING AND HAVE SHADED
FORECASTS SLIGHTLY IN THAT DIRECTION... REDUCING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SLIGHTLY OVER OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES... WHILE
KEEPING AMOUNTS THE SAME ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
2 PM UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES KEEPING THE LAKE EFFECT NORTH
OF THE CWA. STILL COLD WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO. TEMPS IN
TEENS WITH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STAY UP
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. GOOD LIFT
DUE TO JET DYNAMICS. A 150+KT UL JET PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. SNOW
ENDS ABRUPTLY WITH THE FROPA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCH AT AVP TO 1 TO
2 TWIN TIERS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES SYR/RME. MORE NORTH WITH MORE
MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO TUG.
LIKE THE LAST FRONT THERE WILL BE A BREAK WHILE CAA OCCURS AND
THE UL TROF MOVES IN. THE AFTN WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH CLEARING
SKIES. LES WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND TUG. MIDDAY
HIGHS OF 20 TO 25.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
THIS PERIOD DOMINATED BY A 250 TO 260 DEGREE FLOW. MODELS KEEP
SNOW BANDS NORTH OF THE CWA. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL NY OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THE LAKE ONTARIO
BAND MAY DROP INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA BUT MOST MODELS KEEP IT NORTH.
KEPT THE POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
A FLAG. FOR TIMING IN NRN ONEIDA THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SAT AFTN
AND NIGHT. AT THIS TIME A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL KEEP NE PA SUNNY AND DRY.
WITH THE ARCTIC AIR LOW TEMPS FRI NGT AND SAT NGT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. HIGHS SAT IN THE TEENS AGAIN. SUNDAY SOME RECOVERY WITH
WAA...SO HIGHS IN 20S. SOME MODELS HAVE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT LEFT CWA DRY. FLURRIES POSSIBLE NRN ONEIDA CONTINUES.
AIRMASS TOO DRY AND WITH SW FLOW NO LAKE MOISTURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT
MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO OUR AREA SUNDAY NGT INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOWS INTO MON NGT-TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERS THE NORTHEAST U.S INTO WED NGT/THU.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A SRN BRANCH SYSTEM TUE-THU AND WILL KEEP
POPS IN NE PA AND SERN NY AS PER WPC GUIDC AND COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. IN C NY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY AND CHILLY IN THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DIP DOWN OUT OF CANADA OVERNIGHT, BRINGING A
QUICK BURST OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
FALLING. THE SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN SYR/RME AROUND 5Z AND IN AVP
AROUND 9Z. VISIBILITIES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 1SM AND 2SM, WITH
CEILINGS DIPPING TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FEET. AT BGM, CEILINGS
WILL BE BE BETWEEN 600 AND 900 FEET.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WESTERLY GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS, WITH
SOME BLOWING SNOW VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR RME AND SYR, THOUGH BOTH
TERMINALS MAY BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW ACTIVITY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI AFTERNOON - SAT NGT...VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH
LAKE EFFECT -SHSN OVR NY TERMINALS.
SUN...VFR.
MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SN.
TUE...VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH LAKE EFFECT
-SHSN OVR NY TERMINALS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
541 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED ALREADY STARTING TO GET SOME
REPORTS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE. HIGH RES MODELS ALSO HINTING AT PRECIP
STARTING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2AM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM AND GFS ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE
LEVELS OVERNIGHT (PWAT FROM 0.45" TO AROUND 1.02"). GFS ALSO SHOWS
THIS ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES. GIVEN THE ABOVE HAVE INTRODUCED THE
CHANCE OF RAIN EARLIER INTO THE TAFS. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE NORTH KIAH NORTHWARDS. THE OTHER QUESTION IS WILL THE PRECIP
BE FROZEN AT ALL. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF FROZEN PRECIP AT KUTS AND KCLL FRIDAY MORNING.
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS
CONCERNING (FOR TEMPS WET BULBING DOWN). WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION AND UPDATE THE TAFS AS NEEDED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
BY ADDING LOW POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REPORTS
HAVE BEEN COMING INTO OUR OFFICE...AND SURFACE OBS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
PRECIPITATION TOO. AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY TRYING TO WORK
THIS WAY FROM THE WEST...BUT THEY ARE FIGHTING T/TD SPREADS OF SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES.
21Z HRRR AND 18Z TEXAS TECH MODELS ARE BOTH POINTING TOWARD INCREASING
COVERAGE BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM WHEN THE T/TD SPREAD DECREASES. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS INCREASING POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH SOME OF
THE PRECIP BECOMING FROZEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015/
.SMALL THREAT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING...
DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL
LEAVES A COLD/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SE TX. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
CLOUD COVER INCREASING SO TEMPS MAY NOT INCREASE VERY MUCH THE
REST OF THE DAY. MAX TEMPS MAY HAVE REACHED LOW 40S IF THAT WITH
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. U.S. SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE C PLAINS WITH 1046MB HIGH OVER CANADA INTO MONTANA.
THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA BY FRI MORNING.
ALOFT 12Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS MAINLY NW FLOW OVER THE GULF GIVEN
DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW AND BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
FLOW ACROSS THE N PLAINS WHICH IS HELPING PUSH COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER
BAJA PENINSULA WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS MEXICO INTO TX BY
SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
FRI MORNING WINTER PRECIP...MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONT REACHING COLLEGE STATION TO LUFKIN BY 12-15Z FRI. WITH
THIS BOUNDARY LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS AREA
BEGINNING IN C TX... STRETCHING FROM BWD TOWARDS LFK. OMEGA ALSO
LOOKS TO SPIKE DURING THIS TIME IN RESPONSE. ISENTROPIC LIFT AT
290K SFC ALSO SHOWS SOME SLIGHT LIFT WITH MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM
THE W/SW. ALL FORCING LOOKS TO BE RATHER MESOSCALE AND DEPEND ON
THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS BUT MODELS ALL SHOW RAPID MOISTENING OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT
SEVERAL NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...LOW/MID LEVELS DO SATURATE WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK
DRY. PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE REGION 06Z-12Z FRI BUT
LIKELY EVAPORATE. THIS BRINGS ANOTHER FACTOR INTO FORECASTING
WINTER PRECIP...WILL THERMODYNAMIC WET BULBING BE ENOUGH WITH
INCREASING LIFT TO DECREASE TEMP PROFILES AND MOISTEN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP? THATS A BIG QUESTION AND ONE
WHICH THE FORECAST HINGES UPON. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH
ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF RA/FZRA IN FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW COLD SUB-FREEZING LAYER DEEPENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SO COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SLEET. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST
WILL KEEP RA/FZRA AND NOT CONFUSE THINGS WITH ANOTHER PRECIP TYPE
THAT HAS A LESS LIKELY CHANCE OF DEVELOPING.
SO IF ALL THESE FACTORS COME TOGETHER...THERE COULD BE SOME
BANDED PRECIP WITH HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAN FORECAST. THAT IS A
WORSE CASE SCENARIO. REALISTICALLY IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS FROM NORTH
OF BRENHAM...CONROE...CLEVELAND LINE COULD SEE A LITTLE ICE ON
TREES BUT LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION. HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE MORE
LIKELY FOR THE MADISONVILLE/CROCKETT/TRINITY AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS
SHOULD BE COLDER TO SUPPORT FZRA BUT MAY HAVE ISSUES MOISTENING
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP INITIALLY. LIKELY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
PLUS/MINUS 3 HRS OF 15Z SO FRI 12-18Z OR 6AM TO NOON. NO ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME SINCE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE IF BANDING OF PRECIP OCCURS AND IT BECOMES MORE
LIKELY ICE ACCUMULATIONS DEVELOP. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE ICING OF
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES OR ANY ELEVATED SURFACE.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN PRECIP FRI NIGHT AS UPPER LOW OVER
MEXICO MOVES INTO TX ON SAT/SUN. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR FREEZING
OR JUST BELOW FREEZING SAT MORNING BUT PRECIP MAY START MORE OVER
C TX AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF FZRA AGAIN
FOR WESTERN AREAS OF BURLESON/WASHINGTON COUNTIES BUT DRIER AIR AT
925MB MAY KEEP PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND. LATER IN THE
MORNING WARM ADVECTION GREATLY INCREASES SO EXPECT RAIN AS PRECIP
TYPE. LOOK FOR RAIN TO CONTINUE SUN AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH 00Z MON LOOK TO BE AROUND A HALF INCH AREA WIDE. AS
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO TX TUE/WED SO HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR MID
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST WED/THUR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THUR. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS TO END PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
39
AVIATION...
DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO 18Z TAF. STILL EXPECTING
THE RETURN OF PCPN TO THE FCST TONIGHT WITH THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE W/SW. THE MVFR CIGS
CURRENTLY PROGGED FOR EARLY FRI MORNING MAY NEED TO LOWERED IF
PCPN DEVELOPS AS SHORTRANGE MODELS INDICATE. 41
MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES/FLAGS FOR TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE FINALLY
CALMED DOWN THIS AFTN. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO RAMP UP
ONCE AGAIN (AT LEAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS) BY FRI NIGHT AS THE PRE-
SSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WX
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS REMAIN-
ING UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE
LOWER TX COAST AND MOVES UP IN THIS DIRECTION. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 32 38 29 39 34 / 40 50 20 40 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 34 40 33 40 37 / 40 40 20 40 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 38 45 39 46 45 / 30 50 30 50 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
517 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
BY ADDING LOW POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REPORTS
HAVE BEEN COMING INTO OUR OFFICE...AND SURFACE OBS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
PRECIPITATION TOO. AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY TRYING TO WORK
THIS WAY FROM THE WEST...BUT THEY ARE FIGHTING T/TD SPREADS OF SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES.
21Z HRRR AND 18Z TEXAS TECH MODELS ARE BOTH POINTING TOWARD INCREASING
COVERAGE BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM WHEN THE T/TD SPREAD DECREASES. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS INCREASING POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH SOME OF
THE PRECIP BECOMING FROZEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015/
..SMALL THREAT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING...
DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL
LEAVES A COLD/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SE TX. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
CLOUD COVER INCREASING SO TEMPS MAY NOT INCREASE VERY MUCH THE
REST OF THE DAY. MAX TEMPS MAY HAVE REACHED LOW 40S IF THAT WITH
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. U.S. SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE C PLAINS WITH 1046MB HIGH OVER CANADA INTO MONTANA.
THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA BY FRI MORNING.
ALOFT 12Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS MAINLY NW FLOW OVER THE GULF GIVEN
DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW AND BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
FLOW ACROSS THE N PLAINS WHICH IS HELPING PUSH COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER
BAJA PENINSULA WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS MEXICO INTO TX BY
SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
FRI MORNING WINTER PRECIP...MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONT REACHING COLLEGE STATION TO LUFKIN BY 12-15Z FRI. WITH
THIS BOUNDARY LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS AREA
BEGINNING IN C TX... STRETCHING FROM BWD TOWARDS LFK. OMEGA ALSO
LOOKS TO SPIKE DURING THIS TIME IN RESPONSE. ISENTROPIC LIFT AT
290K SFC ALSO SHOWS SOME SLIGHT LIFT WITH MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM
THE W/SW. ALL FORCING LOOKS TO BE RATHER MESOSCALE AND DEPEND ON
THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS BUT MODELS ALL SHOW RAPID MOISTENING OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT
SEVERAL NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...LOW/MID LEVELS DO SATURATE WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK
DRY. PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE REGION 06Z-12Z FRI BUT
LIKELY EVAPORATE. THIS BRINGS ANOTHER FACTOR INTO FORECASTING
WINTER PRECIP...WILL THERMODYNAMIC WET BULBING BE ENOUGH WITH
INCREASING LIFT TO DECREASE TEMP PROFILES AND MOISTEN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP? THATS A BIG QUESTION AND ONE
WHICH THE FORECAST HINGES UPON. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH
ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF RA/FZRA IN FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW COLD SUB-FREEZING LAYER DEEPENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SO COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SLEET. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST
WILL KEEP RA/FZRA AND NOT CONFUSE THINGS WITH ANOTHER PRECIP TYPE
THAT HAS A LESS LIKELY CHANCE OF DEVELOPING.
SO IF ALL THESE FACTORS COME TOGETHER...THERE COULD BE SOME
BANDED PRECIP WITH HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAN FORECAST. THAT IS A
WORSE CASE SCENARIO. REALISTICALLY IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS FROM NORTH
OF BRENHAM...CONROE...CLEVELAND LINE COULD SEE A LITTLE ICE ON
TREES BUT LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION. HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE MORE
LIKELY FOR THE MADISONVILLE/CROCKETT/TRINITY AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS
SHOULD BE COLDER TO SUPPORT FZRA BUT MAY HAVE ISSUES MOISTENING
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP INITIALLY. LIKELY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
PLUS/MINUS 3 HRS OF 15Z SO FRI 12-18Z OR 6AM TO NOON. NO ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME SINCE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE IF BANDING OF PRECIP OCCURS AND IT BECOMES MORE
LIKELY ICE ACCUMULATIONS DEVELOP. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE ICING OF
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES OR ANY ELEVATED SURFACE.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN PRECIP FRI NIGHT AS UPPER LOW OVER
MEXICO MOVES INTO TX ON SAT/SUN. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR FREEZING
OR JUST BELOW FREEZING SAT MORNING BUT PRECIP MAY START MORE OVER
C TX AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF FZRA AGAIN
FOR WESTERN AREAS OF BURLESON/WASHINGTON COUNTIES BUT DRIER AIR AT
925MB MAY KEEP PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND. LATER IN THE
MORNING WARM ADVECTION GREATLY INCREASES SO EXPECT RAIN AS PRECIP
TYPE. LOOK FOR RAIN TO CONTINUE SUN AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH 00Z MON LOOK TO BE AROUND A HALF INCH AREA WIDE. AS
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO TX TUE/WED SO HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR MID
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST WED/THUR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THUR. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS TO END PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
39
AVIATION...
DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO 18Z TAF. STILL EXPECTING
THE RETURN OF PCPN TO THE FCST TONIGHT WITH THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE W/SW. THE MVFR CIGS
CURRENTLY PROGGED FOR EARLY FRI MORNING MAY NEED TO LOWERED IF
PCPN DEVELOPS AS SHORTRANGE MODELS INDICATE. 41
MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES/FLAGS FOR TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE FINALLY
CALMED DOWN THIS AFTN. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO RAMP UP
ONCE AGAIN (AT LEAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS) BY FRI NIGHT AS THE PRE-
SSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WX
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS REMAIN-
ING UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE
LOWER TX COAST AND MOVES UP IN THIS DIRECTION. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 32 38 29 39 34 / 40 50 20 40 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 34 40 33 40 37 / 40 40 20 40 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 38 45 39 46 45 / 30 50 30 50 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
150 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS REPORTING IN THE
30S. SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR WILL KEEP
THE SNOW AT BAY FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT...UNTIL THE FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER AND ALLOWS FOR SOME MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS. HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE POPS GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS AND BEEFED UP THE WINDS. THE
STRONGER WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE CLOSER TO DAWN...AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET RELAXES ACROSS THE AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WE HAVE SEEN WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WELL AS STEADY RISE IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WSR-88D
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS PORTION OF CENTRAL
AND FAR NORTHERN KY TONIGHT. MUCH OF THIS WOULD AT MOST PRODUCE
FLURRIES GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THIS IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND...HOWEVER EVEN WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE THERE WERE
SOME OBS IN SOUTHERN OH THAT DID REPORT LIGHT SNOW. GIVEN THIS OPTED
TO KEEP BLUEGRASS DRY AT THIS POINT. THE QUESTION IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT WOULD BE THE UPSTREAM FRONT AND HOW MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE
MAKES IT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW. MODELS INCLUDING MESOSCALE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LITTLE TO NO PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT.
RIGHT NOW THIS BAND OF PRECIP IS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN IL AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT. UPDATED
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS IS
BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS EVENING...WITH
HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. WSR-
88D RADAR DOES INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS APPROACHING EASTERN
KY...HOWEVER NONE OF THESE RETURNS ARE ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND AT
THIS POINT. UPDATED WITH LATEST OBS AND TREND WITH FORECAST ON TRACK
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE EXISTS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FOUND BETWEEN THE LOW
TO THE NORTH AND THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS TURNING THE WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING THEIR SPEEDS...NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA FIRST AND THE SOUTH LATER. THE EARLIER SUNSHINE...THESE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN WINDS...AND THE DEPARTING HIGH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S IN MOST
PLACES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH THE WARMER VALUES GENERALLY FOUND IN
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE STILL RATHER
LOW...RIGHT AROUND ZERO.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE MAIN PATTERN THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
DEPICT A DEEP SECONDARY TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY BEFORE RETREATING TO THE EAST DURING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY AND
ALLOWING THE HEIGHTS TO REBOUND. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT ALOFT WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL BLEND BUT FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR
FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A REINFORCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS...CONDITIONS WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS WITH THE GFS
PALTRY AND THE NAM12 A BIT MORE ROBUST. THE HRRR MEANWHILE KEEPS
THINGS DRY WITH THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH 08Z. THE SREF POPS HAVE ALSO
DROPPED WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. DO EXPECT SOME
FLURRIES AND A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO AROUND AS THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH
BUT IT SHOULD BE NOWHERE AS EXTENSIVE OR OCCASIONALLY INTENSE AS IT
WAS WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE. ACCORDINGLY...WILL KEEP
MENTION OF THE SNOW THREAT MAINLY IN THE HWO WHILE ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. POST FRONTAL...EXPECT BRISK WEST WINDS TO BRING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST
PLACES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AND SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS WITH SOME MINOR TERRAIN BASED POINT
ADJUSTMENTS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. GIVEN THE NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE RAW
CONSENSUS MODEL DATA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP HIGHER THAN ALL MOS FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEN AGREED WITH THEIR LOW SINGLE DIGITS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO MORE
SYSTEMS POISED TO AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY WITH VERY DRY AIR HOLDING OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THANKS TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. IN
FACT...WE MAY SEE SOME FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WITH MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE. A
MODEST WARM NOSE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE INITIALLY...CLOUD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ON
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE BIG QUESTION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING IS HOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESPOND. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME AREAS MAY NOT CLIMB BACK TO AROUND FREEZING UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME FREEZING RAIN. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO RESIDE ALONG OR NORTH OF I-64...BUT SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD BE AT PLAY AS WELL. CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. ON MONDAY...WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP EVERYTHING RAIN FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL
BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD...BUT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE EXITING. THIS MAY
YIELD EITHER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS
OUT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OF AN ISSUE HERE...BUT WE SHOULD SEE A FEW
SLICK ROADS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF A
LULL AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WE COULD
SEE SOME FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD IN THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. OUR NEXT
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM SUPPRESSED TO OUR
SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER...BUT FARTHER NORTH. BOTH MODELS
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF MORE SNOW AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE...JUST
A QUESTION OF WHERE AND HOW MUCH. CLEARLY THIS SYSTEM REMAINS AROUND
THE DAY 7 PERIOD AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...NOT GOING TO SPEND TOO
MUCH TIME ON THE DETAILS AS THEY ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE ANYWAYS.
HOWEVER...MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH AROUND THIS SYSTEM AS THE COLD AIR HAS ALL RETREATED WELL
TO OUR NORTH BY THIS TIME. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH OF A WARM NOSE
EITHER...SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A WET SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR DROPPING CEILINGS AND
PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY TOWARDS DAWN. HAVE HELD ONTO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSYM...WHERE SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE. THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KTS WILL BE COMMON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ANY SNOW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING BY 21Z WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY DUSK AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
503 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
VIRGINIA AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A STRONG SW TO NE ORIENTED LLJ HAS MOVED INTO
THE APPALACHIAN REGION AND SW FLOW HAS LED TO OVERRUNNING. MOISTURE
AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON REGIONAL RADAR THIS
MORNING.
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE SFC ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND AREAS NORTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER AS BETTER FORCING AND
HIGHER DEWPTS EXIST IN THIS REGION. RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE HAS BEEN EVAPORATING AS IT REACHES THE
GROUND AS DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE 10-20 DEGREES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.
THE LLJ AND MIXING HAS ALLOWED STRONG GUSTS TO REACH THE RIDGETOPS
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS THE JET
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 1500 FEET. GUSTS AROUND 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND
THE TROUGH AND WILL CAUSE A UPSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE WESTERN SLOPES.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY IN THIS AREA. AROUND A INCH
OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES.
ELSEWHERE...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE OVERRUNNING AND
MOISTENING IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TREKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. THIS MAY LEAD TO A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OR SCT
FLURRIES TO CROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON REGION THIS MORNING.
GUIDANCE IS DRY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS INCLUDING ALL SREF
MEMBERS AND THE HRRR HOWEVER AS STATED ABOVE...WEAK LIFT IN THE SNOW
GROWN ZONE AND LITTLE MOISTURE MAY CAUSE SNOW FLAKES TO REACH THE
GROUND. IF THEY DO THEY WILL LIKELY BE SMALL AS DRY AIR AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BANG THEM UP.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SFC TROUGH
OR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS IN THE MTNS AND IN
THE LOW 30S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WILL TAKE A PLUNGE TONIGHT AS W-NW WINDS
CONTINUE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO
BE AROUND 5 TO 15 BELOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC AND
VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THIS REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY. W-NW FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS REACHING THE TEENS IN THE HIGHLANDS AND 20S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES WL BE CENTERED ATOP CWFA SAT NGT. W/ MOCLR SKIES...LTL IF ANY
WIND...AND SUBZERO /DEGF/ DEWPTS...CONDS LOOK PRIMED FOR A RAPID
TEMP DROP AFTER SUNSET. FCST BASED ON THAT PREMISE...AND SEE NO
REASON TO ADJUST ATTM. THINK IF THINGS WERE TO GO OFF TRACK...IT
WOULD BE COLDER THAN FCST.
WAA COMMENCES AFTR MIDNGT...AND CONTS THRU SUN-SUN NGT...TIL ELY MON
MRNG. STILL NO SGFNT WX SUNDAY...JUST INCRSG CLDS. GOING FCST HAS
MAXT SUN ABT 7-10 DEGF WARMER THAN SAT. THE LOW DEWPTS SHUD KEEP SUN
EVE DRY AS WELL. THEN THINGS GET INTERESTING.
H5 PTTN WL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL...AS THE ARCTIC AMS WOULD HAVE BEEN
SCOURED OUT OF AREA. MOST S/WV ACTIVITY WL BE IN THE NRN STREAM...
WHICH IS ACRS SRN CNDA. A DRY AND OTRW BENIGN CDFNT ASSOCD W/ ONE OF
THESE VORTS WL BE CROSSING THE GRTLKS SUN NGT. HWVR...THERE IS ALSO
A WK LOW AND PACKET OF MSTR IN THE WRN GLFMEX AT THIS TIME.
CONSIDERING BROAD AREA OF ISENT LIFT...THIS MSTR WL BE DRAWN NWD IN
ADVC OF SAID FNT. THUS PCPN WL BE DVLPG OVNGT FM SW TO NE. WHILE AMS
WL NOT BE AS COLD AS RECENT PAST...ITS STILL WL BE COLD ENUF AT THE
SFC TO BE SUBFRZG...WHICH WUD BE REINFORCED BY EVAPORATION.
MEANWHILE...TEMPS ALOFT WL BE WARMING...W/ A NOSE ABV FRZG. THUS...
THINK THERE WL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF MAYBE PL...BUT OTRW WE/RE
LOOKING AT FZRA TIL SFC TEMPS CAN WARM ENUF. THIS WUD BE
CONVENIENTLY TIMED FOR THE MRNG COMMUTE. DURING THE DAY...THINK
THERE WL BE ENUF OF A PUSH TO GET MOST AREAS ABV FRZG. HV HELD ONLY
COOLER CONDS FOR THE SHEN VLY AND NRN MD BASED ON CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LTST GDNC CYCLE HAS MADE A CONTINUITY SHIFT...PLACING MORE EMPHASIS
ON BLDG HIPRES MON NGT-TUE. THAT KEEPS THE SRN STREAM SUPPRESSED...
AND THUS DRIER. THIS ALSO MEANS COOLER. HV MADE THESE ADJUSTMENTS IN
THE DATABASE. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT...AND HV REVERTED TO
CHC POPS WED-THU.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A PERIOD OF -SN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT
MRB-BWI-MTN THIS MORNING. FORCING IS WEAK AND SFC IS DRY SO ANYTHING
THAT DOES FALL SHOULD STILL LEAD TO P6SM. SW WINDS 15-20KTS G 25-30KT
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME W THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY.
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE WKND UNDER HIPRES.
MSTR SPREAD NEWD ELY MON MRNG...DURING THE PUSH. W/ AMS IN PLACE
SUBFRZG...THERES A RISK OF FZRA TIL IT CAN BE SCOURED OUT. AS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME FRAME...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR SPCIFICS...
OTHER THAN TO LEAN ON CLIMO-- DCA/BWI WL CHANGE FIRST AND PSBL
ICINESS MORE STUBBORN AT MRB.
AT THIS PT...TUE LOOKS DRY.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND SOME
MARINE OBS HAVE SHOWN 34-35KTS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING UNTIL 10AM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. THE
GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING THEN SCA CONTINUES.
PREV DISCUSSION...
SW WINDS 10-20 G 25-30KT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ON THE
WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. A LULL IN THE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND MIDDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AND GUST AROUND 20
KTS TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. A SCA ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE WATERS.
LGT WINDS SAT NGT BCMG SLY SUNDAY. PCPN SPREADS NEWD ELY MON. MAY BE
A LTL ICY TIL TEMPS CAN WARM AND RA TAKES OVER. A CDFNT WL SWEEP
EVERYTHING TO THE E MON NGT. WL BE A SCA POTL POST-FROPA...SPCLY ON
TUE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ501-502.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MDZ501-502.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ025>027-029-
503-504-507-508.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ050-055-
501>506.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-536>543.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>534-
536>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ535.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...HAS/HTS
MARINE...HAS/HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
434 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
VIRGINIA AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A STRONG SW TO NE ORIENTED LLJ HAS MOVED INTO
THE APPALACHIAN REGION AND SW FLOW HAS LED TO OVERRUNNING. MOISTURE
AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON REGIONAL RADAR THIS
MORNING.
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE SFC ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND AREAS NORTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER AS BETTER FORCING AND
HIGHER DEWPTS EXIST IN THIS REGION. RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE HAS BEEN EVAPORATING AS IT REACHES THE
GROUND AS DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE 10-20 DEGREES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.
THE LLJ AND MIXING HAS ALLOWED STRONG GUSTS TO REACH THE RIDGETOPS
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS THE JET
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 1500 FEET. GUSTS AROUND 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND
THE TROUGH AND WILL CAUSE A UPSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE WESTERN SLOPES.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY IN THIS AREA. AROUND A INCH
OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES.
ELSEWHERE...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE OVERRUNNING AND
MOISTENING IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TREKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. THIS MAY LEAD TO A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OR SCT
FLURRIES TO CROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON REGION THIS MORNING.
GUIDANCE IS DRY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS INCLUDING ALL SREF
MEMBERS AND THE HRRR HOWEVER AS STATED ABOVE...WEAK LIFT IN THE SNOW
GROWN ZONE AND LITTLE MOISTURE MAY CAUSE SNOW FLAKES TO REACH THE
GROUND. IF THEY DO THEY WILL LIKELY BE SMALL AS DRY AIR AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BANG THEM UP.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SFC TROUGH
OR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS IN THE MTNS AND IN
THE LOW 30S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WILL TAKE A PLUNGE TONIGHT AS W-NW WINDS
CONTINUE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO
BE AROUND 5 TO 15 BELOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC AND
VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THIS REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY. W-NW FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS REACHING THE TEENS IN THE HIGHLANDS AND 20S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES WL BE CENTERED ATOP CWFA SAT NGT. W/ MOCLR SKIES...LTL IF ANY
WIND...AND SUBZERO /DEGF/ DEWPTS...CONDS LOOK PRIMED FOR A RAPID
TEMP DROP AFTER SUNSET. FCST BASED ON THAT PREMISE...AND SEE NO
REASON TO ADJUST ATTM. THINK IF THINGS WERE TO GO OFF TRACK...IT
WOULD BE COLDER THAN FCST.
WAA COMMENCES AFTR MIDNGT...AND CONTS THRU SUN-SUN NGT...TIL ELY MON
MRNG. STILL NO SGFNT WX SUNDAY...JUST INCRSG CLDS. GOING FCST HAS
MAXT SUN ABT 7-10 DEGF WARMER THAN SAT. THE LOW DEWPTS SHUD KEEP SUN
EVE DRY AS WELL. THEN THINGS GET INTERESTING.
H5 PTTN WL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL...AS THE ARCTIC AMS WOULD HAVE BEEN
SCOURED OUT OF AREA. MOST S/WV ACTIVITY WL BE IN THE NRN STREAM...
WHICH IS ACRS SRN CNDA. A DRY AND OTRW BENIGN CDFNT ASSOCD W/ ONE OF
THESE VORTS WL BE CROSSING THE GRTLKS SUN NGT. HWVR...THERE IS ALSO
A WK LOW AND PACKET OF MSTR IN THE WRN GLFMEX AT THIS TIME.
CONSIDERING BROAD AREA OF ISENT LIFT...THIS MSTR WL BE DRAWN NWD IN
ADVC OF SAID FNT. THUS PCPN WL BE DVLPG OVNGT FM SW TO NE. WHILE AMS
WL NOT BE AS COLD AS RECENT PAST...ITS STILL WL BE COLD ENUF AT THE
SFC TO BE SUBFRZG...WHICH WUD BE REINFORCED BY EVAPORATION.
MEANWHILE...TEMPS ALOFT WL BE WARMING...W/ A NOSE ABV FRZG. THUS...
THINK THERE WL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF MAYBE PL...BUT OTRW WE/RE
LOOKING AT FZRA TIL SFC TEMPS CAN WARM ENUF. THIS WUD BE
CONVENIENTLY TIMED FOR THE MRNG COMMUTE. DURING THE DAY...THINK
THERE WL BE ENUF OF A PUSH TO GET MOST AREAS ABV FRZG. HV HELD ONLY
COOLER CONDS FOR THE SHEN VLY AND NRN MD BASED ON CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LTST GDNC CYCLE HAS MADE A CONTINUITY SHIFT...PLACING MORE EMPHASIS
ON BLDG HIPRES MON NGT-TUE. THAT KEEPS THE SRN STREAM SUPPRESSED...
AND THUS DRIER. THIS ALSO MEANS COOLER. HV MADE THESE ADJUSTMENTS IN
THE DATABASE. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT...AND HV REVERTED TO
CHC POPS WED-THU.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A PERIOD OF -SN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT
MRB-BWI-MTN THIS MORNING. FORCING IS WEAK AND SFC IS DRY SO ANYTHING
THAT DOES FALL SHOULD STILL LEAD TO P6SM. SW WINDS 15-20KTS G 25-30KT
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME W THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY.
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE WKND UNDER HIPRES.
MSTR SPREAD NEWD ELY MON MRNG...DURING THE PUSH. W/ AMS IN PLACE
SUBFRZG...THERES A RISK OF FZRA TIL IT CAN BE SCOURED OUT. AS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME FRAME...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR SPCIFICS...
OTHER THAN TO LEAN ON CLIMO-- DCA/BWI WL CHANGE FIRST AND PSBL
ICINESS MORE STUBBORN AT MRB.
AT THIS PT...TUE LOOKS DRY.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS 10-20 G 25-30KT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ON THE
WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. A LULL IN THE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND MIDDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AND GUST AROUND 20
KTS TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. A SCA ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE WATERS.
LGT WINDS SAT NGT BCMG SLY SUNDAY. PCPN SPREADS NEWD ELY MON. MAY BE
A LTL ICY TIL TEMPS CAN WARM AND RA TAKES OVER. A CDFNT WL SWEEP
EVERYTHING TO THE E MON NGT. WL BE A SCA POTL POST-FROPA...SPCLY ON
TUE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ501-502.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MDZ501-502.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ025>027-029-
503-504-507-508.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ050-055-
501>506.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...HAS/HTS
MARINE...HAS/HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
347 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A STRONG SW TO NE ORIENTED LLJ HAS MOVED INTO
THE APPALACHIAN REGION AND SW FLOW HAS LED TO OVERRUNNING. MOISTURE
AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON REGIONAL RADAR THIS
MORNING.
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE SFC ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND AREAS NORTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER AS BETTER FORCING AND
HIGHER DEWPTS EXIST IN THIS REGION. RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE HAS BEEN EVAPORATING AS IT REACHES THE
GROUND AS DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE 10-20 DEGREES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.
THE LLJ AND MIXING HAS ALLOWED STRONG GUSTS TO REACH THE RIDGETOPS
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS THE JET
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 1500 FEET. GUSTS AROUND 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND
THE TROUGH AND WILL CAUSE A UPSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE WESTERN SLOPES.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY IN THIS AREA. AROUND A INCH
OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES.
ELSEWHERE...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE OVERRUNNING AND
MOISTENING IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TREKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. THIS MAY LEAD TO A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OR SCT
FLURRIES TO CROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON REGION THIS MORNING.
GUIDANCE IS DRY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS INCLUDING ALL SREF
MEMBERS AND THE HRRR HOWEVER AS STATED ABOVE...WEAK LIFT IN THE SNOW
GROWN ZONE AND LITTLE MOISTURE MAY CAUSE SNOW FLAKES TO REACH THE
GROUND. IF THEY DO THEY WILL LIKELY BE SMALL AS DRY AIR AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BANG THEM UP.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SFC TROUGH
OR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS IN THE MTNS AND IN
THE LOW 30S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WILL TAKE A PLUNGE TONIGHT AS W-NW WINDS
CONTINUE. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE WARRENTED TONIGHT AS WIND
CHILLS APPROACH ZERO AND INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY. W-NW FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS REACHING THE TEENS IN THE HIGHLANDS AND 20S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES WL BE CENTERED ATOP CWFA SAT NGT. W/ MOCLR SKIES...LTL IF ANY
WIND...AND SUBZERO /DEGF/ DEWPTS...CONDS LOOK PRIMED FOR A RAPID
TEMP DROP AFTER SUNSET. FCST BASED ON THAT PREMISE...AND SEE NO
REASON TO ADJUST ATTM. THINK IF THINGS WERE TO GO OFF TRACK...IT
WOULD BE COLDER THAN FCST.
WAA COMMENCES AFTR MIDNGT...AND CONTS THRU SUN-SUN NGT...TIL ELY MON
MRNG. STILL NO SGFNT WX SUNDAY...JUST INCRSG CLDS. GOING FCST HAS
MAXT SUN ABT 7-10 DEGF WARMER THAN SAT. THE LOW DEWPTS SHUD KEEP SUN
EVE DRY AS WELL. THEN THINGS GET INTERESTING.
H5 PTTN WL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL...AS THE ARCTIC AMS WOULD HAVE BEEN
SCOURED OUT OF AREA. MOST S/WV ACTIVITY WL BE IN THE NRN STREAM...
WHICH IS ACRS SRN CNDA. A DRY AND OTRW BENIGN CDFNT ASSOCD W/ ONE OF
THESE VORTS WL BE CROSSING THE GRTLKS SUN NGT. HWVR...THERE IS ALSO
A WK LOW AND PACKET OF MSTR IN THE WRN GLFMEX AT THIS TIME.
CONSIDERING BROAD AREA OF ISENT LIFT...THIS MSTR WL BE DRAWN NWD IN
ADVC OF SAID FNT. THUS PCPN WL BE DVLPG OVNGT FM SW TO NE. WHILE AMS
WL NOT BE AS COLD AS RECENT PAST...ITS STILL WL BE COLD ENUF AT THE
SFC TO BE SUBFRZG...WHICH WUD BE REINFORCED BY EVAPORATION.
MEANWHILE...TEMPS ALOFT WL BE WARMING...W/ A NOSE ABV FRZG. THUS...
THINK THERE WL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF MAYBE PL...BUT OTRW WE/RE
LOOKING AT FZRA TIL SFC TEMPS CAN WARM ENUF. THIS WUD BE
CONVENIENTLY TIMED FOR THE MRNG COMMUTE. DURING THE DAY...THINK
THERE WL BE ENUF OF A PUSH TO GET MOST AREAS ABV FRZG. HV HELD ONLY
COOLER CONDS FOR THE SHEN VLY AND NRN MD BASED ON CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LTST GDNC CYCLE HAS MADE A CONTINUITY SHIFT...PLACING MORE EMPHASIS
ON BLDG HIPRES MON NGT-TUE. THAT KEEPS THE SRN STREAM SUPPRESSED...
AND THUS DRIER. THIS ALSO MEANS COOLER. HV MADE THESE ADJUSTMENTS IN
THE DATABASE. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT...AND HV REVERTED TO
CHC POPS WED-THU.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A PERIOD OF -SN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT
MRB-BWI-MTN THIS MORNING. FORCING IS WEAK AND SFC IS DRY SO ANYTHING
THAT DOES FALL SHOULD STILL LEAD TO P6SM. SW WINDS 15-20KTS G 25-30KT
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME W THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY.
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE WKND UNDER HIPRES.
MSTR SPREAD NEWD ELY MON MRNG...DURING THE PUSH. W/ AMS IN PLACE
SUBFRZG...THERES A RISK OF FZRA TIL IT CAN BE SCOURED OUT. AS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME FRAME...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR SPCIFICS...
OTHER THAN TO LEAN ON CLIMO-- DCA/BWI WL CHANGE FIRST AND PSBL
ICINESS MORE STUBBORN AT MRB.
AT THIS PT...TUE LOOKS DRY.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS 10-20 G 25-30KT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ON THE
WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. A LULL IN THE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND MIDDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AND GUST AROUND 20
KTS TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. A SCA ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE WATERS.
LGT WINDS SAT NGT BCMG SLY SUNDAY. PCPN SPREADS NEWD ELY MON. MAY BE
A LTL ICY TIL TEMPS CAN WARM AND RA TAKES OVER. A CDFNT WL SWEEP
EVERYTHING TO THE E MON NGT. WL BE A SCA POTL POST-FROPA...SPCLY ON
TUE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ501-502.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ025>027-029-
503-504-507-508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ050-055-
501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...HAS/HTS
MARINE...HAS/HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1131 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015
UA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NRN QUEBEC WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE
EASTERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE CONUS...RIDGING WAS PRESENT UP THE WEST
COAST OF THE CONUS INTO ALASKA. A VERY ACTIVE H5 PATTERN CONTINUES
OVER THE CONUS THIS AM WITH STRONG HT FALLS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE WITH 100 TO 200 METER HT FALLS
NOTED FROM THE DAKOTAS NWD INTO MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. FURTHER
EAST...100 TO 150 METER HT RISES EXTENDED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NWD
TO LAKE ERIE. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TDY. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS SLID THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS OF
MID MORNING WITH A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA AS OF NOONTIME. THIS
FEATURE HAS MADE IT INTO THE SANDHILLS AND WAS APPROACHING THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AS OF 3 PM CST. TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN
CWA PEAKED LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO DROP THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SRN CWA...TEMPS HAVE FLAT LINED DURING THE NOONTIME
HOURS AND HAVE BEGUN TO FALL MID AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 19 AT VALENTINE...TO 44 AT
IMPERIAL.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS SHERIDAN AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES AS
INDICATED THE METAR AT PINE RIDGE AND 3 NEDOR OBSERVATIONS. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED.
A MILD REWORK OF TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TONIGHT USING THE RAP AND
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SUGGESTS GARDEN COUNTY WILL FALL TO -20 WIND
CHILL BY MORNING SO THIS COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS MOST OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AREA THIS EVENING. THE BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015
ONGOING STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ON TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES DID WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S FARTHER SOUTH
JUST BEFORE THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSED...AND THAT WAS JUST ENOUGH
TO MELT ENOUGH SNOW TO FORM A CRUST...AND BLOWING SNOW HAS NOT BEEN
AN ISSUE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN A SLOWLY
DIMINISHING FASHION. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA INTO THIS EVENING...AND THEN BEGIN TO TAPER AS WINDS
DIMINISH. WINDS ARE CONVERGING IN A ZONE AROUND THE BLACK HILLS
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
IN THIS CONVERGENCE AREA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL FURTHER
REDUCE VISIBILITY WHEN COMBINED WITH BLOWING SNOW.
LATER TONIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD COVER DIMINISH...BUT ENOUGH WIND WILL
REMAIN TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HAVE POSTED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL FRIDAY. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
FOR WELCOME SUNSHINE...BUT COLD CONDITIONS DESPITE THE SUN AS ARCTIC
AIR WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON THE AREA DUE TO ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THE HIGH IN THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IN THE MID RANGE
PERIODS...TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE
OZARKS. THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WAS ANCHORED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON
FRIDAY...WILL RETREAT EAST AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING WEST OF THIS FEATURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE EARLY IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL WITH RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS
THE FRONT TRACKS EAST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE FRONT WILL HOLD TEMPS UP AS WELL ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND
WEST. THE INHERITED FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES MADE TO THE MIN TEMP FCST AND T GRIDS. FOR SATURDAY...THE
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST WHILE WEST OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SD/NEBR BORDER BY 21Z SATURDAY. SOUTH
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AND WEST OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 30S WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 40 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. IF WE
CAN MIX OUT SATURDAY...WE MAY SEE SOME 40S...HOWEVER...THE GFS AND
NAM SOLNS LIMIT MIXING SATURDAY...THUS A MORE CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMP
FCST WAS UTILIZED. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FROPA APPEARS TO BE A DRY ONE ATTM WITH LITTLE
OR NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION NOTED. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS FAR NRN
NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER TEENS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...TO
THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA...EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH
OF THIS FEATURE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL FAVOR INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT RANGES AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS
MID LEVEL FORCING DROPS SOUTH FROM MONTANA INTO WYOMING AND NERN
COLORADO. DECIDED TO INSERT A LOW POP CHANCE IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE SECOND ARCTIC FROPA...DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE AND
MID LEVEL FORCING...WHICH IS PRESENT IN THE WESTERN CWA. FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EASTERLY WINDS MONDAY...AND CLOUD COVER
WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE TEENS. ON TUESDAY...SRLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA...HOWEVER...ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS FROM
MONDAYS. BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP...FORCING THE ARCTIC AIR EAST WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE 30S. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015
THE MVFR CIGS AT KVTN ARE NOT VISIBLE ON THE SATELLITE SO THEY
MAY DEPART AT ANYTIME. OTHERWISE...SNOW AND LOCAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SWRN NEB SHOULD DEPART SOUTH BY 09Z. VFR IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER
ALL AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN.
THE MODELS SHOW MVFR CIGS RETURN NORTH OR EAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE
NAM LIFTS THIS CIGS NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND THEN EAST TO
NEAR HIGHWAY 83 BY 06Z FRIDAY EVENING WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE BEST
SOLN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ TO 10 AM CST /9 AM
MST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ004>010-022>024-094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1250 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT WILL SET UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY
BUT MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE NEW YORK THRUWAY.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 20S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED AT 915 PM... FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS LIGHT SNOW IS
SPREADING EAST ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WILL REACH WESTERN
NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
SNOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2 AM AND 5 AM. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION NAM/RAP FORECAST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT A
MINIMA OF SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR OVER OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS WITH 10
TO 25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSLOPING EAST OF THE HIGHER
ALLEGHENY MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHWEST NY.
HOWEVER HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL INDICATED FOR THE POCONOS AND
WESTERN CATSKILLS EAST OF I-81 WHICH ARE FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE AND WILL EXPERIENCE UPSLOPE FLOW LATER TONIGHT. THE
TERRAIN EFFECTS BEING INDICATED BY THE NAM AND RAP APPEAR TO BE
REASONABLE WITH FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ONGOING AND HAVE SHADED
FORECASTS SLIGHTLY IN THAT DIRECTION... REDUCING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SLIGHTLY OVER OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES... WHILE
KEEPING AMOUNTS THE SAME ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
2 PM UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES KEEPING THE LAKE EFFECT NORTH
OF THE CWA. STILL COLD WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO. TEMPS IN
TEENS WITH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STAY UP
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. GOOD LIFT
DUE TO JET DYNAMICS. A 150+KT UL JET PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. SNOW
ENDS ABRUPTLY WITH THE FROPA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCH AT AVP TO 1 TO
2 TWIN TIERS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES SYR/RME. MORE NORTH WITH MORE
MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO TUG.
LIKE THE LAST FRONT THERE WILL BE A BREAK WHILE CAA OCCURS AND
THE UL TROF MOVES IN. THE AFTN WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH CLEARING
SKIES. LES WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND TUG. MIDDAY
HIGHS OF 20 TO 25.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
THIS PERIOD DOMINATED BY A 250 TO 260 DEGREE FLOW. MODELS KEEP
SNOW BANDS NORTH OF THE CWA. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL NY OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THE LAKE ONTARIO
BAND MAY DROP INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA BUT MOST MODELS KEEP IT NORTH.
KEPT THE POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
A FLAG. FOR TIMING IN NRN ONEIDA THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SAT AFTN
AND NIGHT. AT THIS TIME A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL KEEP NE PA SUNNY AND DRY.
WITH THE ARCTIC AIR LOW TEMPS FRI NGT AND SAT NGT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. HIGHS SAT IN THE TEENS AGAIN. SUNDAY SOME RECOVERY WITH
WAA...SO HIGHS IN 20S. SOME MODELS HAVE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT LEFT CWA DRY. FLURRIES POSSIBLE NRN ONEIDA CONTINUES.
AIRMASS TOO DRY AND WITH SW FLOW NO LAKE MOISTURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT
MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO OUR AREA SUNDAY NGT INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOWS INTO MON NGT-TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERS THE NORTHEAST U.S INTO WED NGT/THU.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A SRN BRANCH SYSTEM TUE-THU AND WILL KEEP
POPS IN NE PA AND SERN NY AS PER WPC GUIDC AND COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. IN C NY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY AND CHILLY IN THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
BRING THE AREA A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. IN GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS
DUE PRIMARILY TO VSBYS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AT APPROX 08Z-
12Z. AT KITH/KBGM, CONDITIONS WILL OCCASIONALLY FALL BELOW AIRPORT
MINS BETWEEN 08Z-11Z. ONCE THE STEADY SNOW PASSES MVFR CIGS WILL
LINGER AT MOST SITES UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING THEN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR OVERNIGHT AS LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF BOTH THE KSYR/KRME TERMINALS.
S/SW WINDS AT 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AT 25-30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING TO 8-12 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT - SUN...PRIMARILY VFR.
MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SN.
TUE...VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH LAKE EFFECT
-SHSN OVR NY TERMINALS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1108 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS KIAH AND NORTHWARDS THIS EVENING THANKS TO
WEAK UPGLIDE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD. 850
AND 700 MB MAPS SHOWING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WITH AMDAR SOUNDINGS
SHOWING BELOW FREEZING LEVEL BETWEEN 250 FT AND 2600 FT. STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME FROZEN PRECIP AT KCLL/ KUTS/ AND KCXO WHERE
DEWPOINT/ TEMPERATURE SPREADS REMAIN GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES.
THANKS TO SOUTH WIND THIS EVENING TEMPS HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
STABLE THOUGH AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEAR WHERE THEY
CURRENTLY AREA (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER). KIAH SOUTHWARDS
LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PRECIP THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVE THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FURTHER SUPPORT THESE TRENDS AS
SOUNDINGS LOOSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH FROM THE
NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AS ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. 23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WE ARE MONITORING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING AS AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SO FAR...TEMPERATURES
ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ONLY RAIN WILL OCCUR. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR WILL BE AFTER
SUNRISE UP NORTH WHEN TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL BEHIND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL...SO WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES THIS EVENING AND WAIT FOR ALL OF THE NEW MODELS TO ARRIVE.
42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED ALREADY STARTING TO GET SOME
REPORTS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE. HIGH RES MODELS ALSO HINTING AT PRECIP
STARTING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2AM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM AND GFS ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE
LEVELS OVERNIGHT (PWAT FROM 0.45" TO AROUND 1.02"). GFS ALSO SHOWS
THIS ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES. GIVEN THE ABOVE HAVE INTRODUCED THE
CHANCE OF RAIN EARLIER INTO THE TAFS. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE NORTH KIAH NORTHWARDS. THE OTHER QUESTION IS WILL THE PRECIP
BE FROZEN AT ALL. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF FROZEN PRECIP AT KUTS AND KCLL FRIDAY MORNING.
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS
CONCERNING (FOR TEMPS WET BULBING DOWN). WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION AND UPDATE THE TAFS AS NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
BY ADDING LOW POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REPORTS
HAVE BEEN COMING INTO OUR OFFICE...AND SURFACE OBS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
PRECIPITATION TOO. AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY TRYING TO WORK
THIS WAY FROM THE WEST...BUT THEY ARE FIGHTING T/TD SPREADS OF SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES.
21Z HRRR AND 18Z TEXAS TECH MODELS ARE BOTH POINTING TOWARD INCREASING
COVERAGE BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM WHEN THE T/TD SPREAD DECREASES. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS INCREASING POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH SOME OF
THE PRECIP BECOMING FROZEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015/
SMALL THREAT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING...
DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL
LEAVES A COLD/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SE TX. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
CLOUD COVER INCREASING SO TEMPS MAY NOT INCREASE VERY MUCH THE
REST OF THE DAY. MAX TEMPS MAY HAVE REACHED LOW 40S IF THAT WITH
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. U.S. SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE C PLAINS WITH 1046MB HIGH OVER CANADA INTO MONTANA.
THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA BY FRI MORNING.
ALOFT 12Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS MAINLY NW FLOW OVER THE GULF GIVEN
DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW AND BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
FLOW ACROSS THE N PLAINS WHICH IS HELPING PUSH COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER
BAJA PENINSULA WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS MEXICO INTO TX BY
SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
FRI MORNING WINTER PRECIP...MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONT REACHING COLLEGE STATION TO LUFKIN BY 12-15Z FRI. WITH
THIS BOUNDARY LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS AREA
BEGINNING IN C TX... STRETCHING FROM BWD TOWARDS LFK. OMEGA ALSO
LOOKS TO SPIKE DURING THIS TIME IN RESPONSE. ISENTROPIC LIFT AT
290K SFC ALSO SHOWS SOME SLIGHT LIFT WITH MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM
THE W/SW. ALL FORCING LOOKS TO BE RATHER MESOSCALE AND DEPEND ON
THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS BUT MODELS ALL SHOW RAPID MOISTENING OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT
SEVERAL NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...LOW/MID LEVELS DO SATURATE WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK
DRY. PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE REGION 06Z-12Z FRI BUT
LIKELY EVAPORATE. THIS BRINGS ANOTHER FACTOR INTO FORECASTING
WINTER PRECIP...WILL THERMODYNAMIC WET BULBING BE ENOUGH WITH
INCREASING LIFT TO DECREASE TEMP PROFILES AND MOISTEN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP? THATS A BIG QUESTION AND ONE
WHICH THE FORECAST HINGES UPON. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH
ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF RA/FZRA IN FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW COLD SUB-FREEZING LAYER DEEPENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SO COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SLEET. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST
WILL KEEP RA/FZRA AND NOT CONFUSE THINGS WITH ANOTHER PRECIP TYPE
THAT HAS A LESS LIKELY CHANCE OF DEVELOPING.
SO IF ALL THESE FACTORS COME TOGETHER...THERE COULD BE SOME
BANDED PRECIP WITH HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAN FORECAST. THAT IS A
WORSE CASE SCENARIO. REALISTICALLY IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS FROM NORTH
OF BRENHAM...CONROE...CLEVELAND LINE COULD SEE A LITTLE ICE ON
TREES BUT LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION. HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE MORE
LIKELY FOR THE MADISONVILLE/CROCKETT/TRINITY AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS
SHOULD BE COLDER TO SUPPORT FZRA BUT MAY HAVE ISSUES MOISTENING
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP INITIALLY. LIKELY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
PLUS/MINUS 3 HRS OF 15Z SO FRI 12-18Z OR 6AM TO NOON. NO ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME SINCE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE IF BANDING OF PRECIP OCCURS AND IT BECOMES MORE
LIKELY ICE ACCUMULATIONS DEVELOP. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE ICING OF
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES OR ANY ELEVATED SURFACE.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN PRECIP FRI NIGHT AS UPPER LOW OVER
MEXICO MOVES INTO TX ON SAT/SUN. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR FREEZING
OR JUST BELOW FREEZING SAT MORNING BUT PRECIP MAY START MORE OVER
C TX AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF FZRA AGAIN
FOR WESTERN AREAS OF BURLESON/WASHINGTON COUNTIES BUT DRIER AIR AT
925MB MAY KEEP PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND. LATER IN THE
MORNING WARM ADVECTION GREATLY INCREASES SO EXPECT RAIN AS PRECIP
TYPE. LOOK FOR RAIN TO CONTINUE SUN AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH 00Z MON LOOK TO BE AROUND A HALF INCH AREA WIDE. AS
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO TX TUE/WED SO HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR MID
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST WED/THUR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THUR. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS TO END PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
39
MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES/FLAGS FOR TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE FINALLY
CALMED DOWN THIS AFTN. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO RAMP UP
ONCE AGAIN (AT LEAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS) BY FRI NIGHT AS THE PRE-
SSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WX
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS REMAIN-
ING UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE
LOWER TX COAST AND MOVES UP IN THIS DIRECTION. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 38 32 38 29 39 / 20 40 50 20 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 42 34 40 33 40 / 20 40 40 20 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 38 38 45 39 46 / 20 30 50 30 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1024 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE MONITORING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING AS AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SO FAR...TEMPERATURES
ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ONLY RAIN WILL OCCUR. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR WILL BE AFTER
SUNRISE UP NORTH WHEN TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL BEHIND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL...SO WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES THIS EVENING AND WAIT FOR ALL OF THE NEW MODELS TO ARRIVE.
42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED ALREADY STARTING TO GET SOME
REPORTS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE. HIGH RES MODELS ALSO HINTING AT PRECIP
STARTING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2AM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM AND GFS ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE
LEVELS OVERNIGHT (PWAT FROM 0.45" TO AROUND 1.02"). GFS ALSO SHOWS
THIS ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES. GIVEN THE ABOVE HAVE INTRODUCED THE
CHANCE OF RAIN EARLIER INTO THE TAFS. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE NORTH KIAH NORTHWARDS. THE OTHER QUESTION IS WILL THE PRECIP
BE FROZEN AT ALL. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF FROZEN PRECIP AT KUTS AND KCLL FRIDAY MORNING.
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS
CONCERNING (FOR TEMPS WET BULBING DOWN). WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION AND UPDATE THE TAFS AS NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
BY ADDING LOW POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REPORTS
HAVE BEEN COMING INTO OUR OFFICE...AND SURFACE OBS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
PRECIPITATION TOO. AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY TRYING TO WORK
THIS WAY FROM THE WEST...BUT THEY ARE FIGHTING T/TD SPREADS OF SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES.
21Z HRRR AND 18Z TEXAS TECH MODELS ARE BOTH POINTING TOWARD INCREASING
COVERAGE BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM WHEN THE T/TD SPREAD DECREASES. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS INCREASING POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH SOME OF
THE PRECIP BECOMING FROZEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015/
SMALL THREAT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING...
DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL
LEAVES A COLD/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SE TX. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
CLOUD COVER INCREASING SO TEMPS MAY NOT INCREASE VERY MUCH THE
REST OF THE DAY. MAX TEMPS MAY HAVE REACHED LOW 40S IF THAT WITH
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. U.S. SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE C PLAINS WITH 1046MB HIGH OVER CANADA INTO MONTANA.
THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA BY FRI MORNING.
ALOFT 12Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS MAINLY NW FLOW OVER THE GULF GIVEN
DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW AND BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
FLOW ACROSS THE N PLAINS WHICH IS HELPING PUSH COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER
BAJA PENINSULA WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS MEXICO INTO TX BY
SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
FRI MORNING WINTER PRECIP...MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONT REACHING COLLEGE STATION TO LUFKIN BY 12-15Z FRI. WITH
THIS BOUNDARY LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS AREA
BEGINNING IN C TX... STRETCHING FROM BWD TOWARDS LFK. OMEGA ALSO
LOOKS TO SPIKE DURING THIS TIME IN RESPONSE. ISENTROPIC LIFT AT
290K SFC ALSO SHOWS SOME SLIGHT LIFT WITH MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM
THE W/SW. ALL FORCING LOOKS TO BE RATHER MESOSCALE AND DEPEND ON
THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS BUT MODELS ALL SHOW RAPID MOISTENING OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT
SEVERAL NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...LOW/MID LEVELS DO SATURATE WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK
DRY. PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE REGION 06Z-12Z FRI BUT
LIKELY EVAPORATE. THIS BRINGS ANOTHER FACTOR INTO FORECASTING
WINTER PRECIP...WILL THERMODYNAMIC WET BULBING BE ENOUGH WITH
INCREASING LIFT TO DECREASE TEMP PROFILES AND MOISTEN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP? THATS A BIG QUESTION AND ONE
WHICH THE FORECAST HINGES UPON. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH
ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF RA/FZRA IN FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW COLD SUB-FREEZING LAYER DEEPENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SO COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SLEET. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST
WILL KEEP RA/FZRA AND NOT CONFUSE THINGS WITH ANOTHER PRECIP TYPE
THAT HAS A LESS LIKELY CHANCE OF DEVELOPING.
SO IF ALL THESE FACTORS COME TOGETHER...THERE COULD BE SOME
BANDED PRECIP WITH HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAN FORECAST. THAT IS A
WORSE CASE SCENARIO. REALISTICALLY IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS FROM NORTH
OF BRENHAM...CONROE...CLEVELAND LINE COULD SEE A LITTLE ICE ON
TREES BUT LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION. HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE MORE
LIKELY FOR THE MADISONVILLE/CROCKETT/TRINITY AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS
SHOULD BE COLDER TO SUPPORT FZRA BUT MAY HAVE ISSUES MOISTENING
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP INITIALLY. LIKELY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
PLUS/MINUS 3 HRS OF 15Z SO FRI 12-18Z OR 6AM TO NOON. NO ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME SINCE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE IF BANDING OF PRECIP OCCURS AND IT BECOMES MORE
LIKELY ICE ACCUMULATIONS DEVELOP. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE ICING OF
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES OR ANY ELEVATED SURFACE.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN PRECIP FRI NIGHT AS UPPER LOW OVER
MEXICO MOVES INTO TX ON SAT/SUN. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR FREEZING
OR JUST BELOW FREEZING SAT MORNING BUT PRECIP MAY START MORE OVER
C TX AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF FZRA AGAIN
FOR WESTERN AREAS OF BURLESON/WASHINGTON COUNTIES BUT DRIER AIR AT
925MB MAY KEEP PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND. LATER IN THE
MORNING WARM ADVECTION GREATLY INCREASES SO EXPECT RAIN AS PRECIP
TYPE. LOOK FOR RAIN TO CONTINUE SUN AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH 00Z MON LOOK TO BE AROUND A HALF INCH AREA WIDE. AS
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO TX TUE/WED SO HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR MID
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST WED/THUR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THUR. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS TO END PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
39
MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES/FLAGS FOR TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE FINALLY
CALMED DOWN THIS AFTN. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO RAMP UP
ONCE AGAIN (AT LEAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS) BY FRI NIGHT AS THE PRE-
SSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WX
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS REMAIN-
ING UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE
LOWER TX COAST AND MOVES UP IN THIS DIRECTION. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 32 38 29 39 34 / 40 50 20 40 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 34 40 33 40 37 / 40 40 20 40 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 38 45 39 46 45 / 30 50 30 50 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
152 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EST FRIDAY...
UPDATED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR STRONG SW WINDS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND ALSO WITH THE LIKELY SURGE IN WEST WINDS WITH THE FROPA DURING
THE MORNING. THIS MAINLY FOR THE RIDGES GIVEN THE 50-60 KT JET MAX
SLIDING OVER THE INVERSION THAT REMAINS BUT LIKELY TO GIVE WAY
WITH ONGOING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ATTM. THINK BEST GUSTS FROM
ABOUT 09Z THROUGH LATE MORNING AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR AND
RNK-WRF WIND FIELDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 400 PM...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAD MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. WINDS HAD DIMINISHED AND WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING. WITH A
DRY AIR MASS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS JUST BELOW ZERO...EXPECTING A
SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURE DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS. AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND WINDS PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE...PARTICULARLY ON THE
RIDGES. BUFKIT SUGGESTS INVERSION MAY LIFT ENOUGH THAT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 40
MPH AROUND 12Z/7AM.
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO
MONTANA. THIS FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. 850
MB START AROUND -4 AT 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING...THEN BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY...MORE ARCTIC AIR SURGES IN AND TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO
-10 TO -15. GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN FOLLOW THE FRONT.
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IS LIMITED. BUFKIT
SHOWED A LAYER AROUND 2000 FEET DEEP...RIGHT AT THE PRIME SNOW
GROWTH TEMPERATURES. WILL KEEP IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM
BLUEFIELD NORTH ON FAR WESTERN SLOPES. HAVE ADDED BLOWING SNOW IN
WHERE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST THURSDAY...
A 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAIN
STATES FRIDAY THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...COMING OVER THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE
PRESSURE RISES (6MB/6HRS) WILL BRING WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SUBSIDES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD ALOFT
(850 MB) FRIDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONT...RANGING
FROM -5C OVER THE NC/VA BORDER TO -15C OVER THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. THIS MORNING SOUNDINGS BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT HAD 85H TEMPERATURES -20C AT RNK AND -11C AT GSO. SO NOT AS
COLD SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS RANGING FROM 5F
TO 10F ABOVE ZERO TO THE MIDDLE TEENS IN THE EAST. WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 0F TO 10F BELOW WITH HIGHER
ELEVATION PUSHING 20F BELOW. ALSO FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
AND A BRIEF PERIOD WITH TRAJECTORIES FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD
BRING ACCUMULATING DRY SNOW ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS ARCTIC FRONT...MODELS ARE MOSTLY DRY
WITH THIS FRONT AND ALMOST NOTHING WITH UPSLOPE. FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS ALONG WESTERN SLOPES INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF DRY SNOW...SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND BECOMES
A 1040MB HYBRID WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERATE AND
TRACK A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES OUT OF THE GULF AND OVER THIS WEDGE
STARTING SUNDAY. WITH SUCH A DRY WEDGE TO BEGIN WITH...ONLY
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY. IF
PRECIPITATION DOES ENTER EARLY...IT LOOKS TO FALL AS A COLD RAIN
OVER CAROLINA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE HYBRID WEDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL WITH SATURDAYS HIGHS IN THE
M/U 20S ACROSS THE WEST TO THE LOWER 30S EAST. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COLD LOWS RANGING FROM 10F TO
20F ABOVE ZERO. SUNDAYS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...
THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ON THE WET SIDE
FOR MOST OF IT...AND ALSO OFFER ITSELF TO A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL BE ONE OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS THAT
WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY TO THE EAST COAST. ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH...A SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL ADVECT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS OVER...OR NEAR...OUR REGION ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE
WITH GULF OF MEXICO ORIGINS. JUST HOW MUCH PROGRESSION EASTWARD THE
UPPER TROUGH MAKES...AND HOW QUICKLY...WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN JUST
HOW MANY OF THESE FEATURE MOVE OVER THE REGION...BARELY SKIRT
IT...OR MISS IT COMPLETELY OFF THE EAST COAST...ALL WHILE OUR
WEATHER TURNS DRIER AND COLDER INSTEAD.
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OUR FORECAST HAS GIVEN GREATER WEIGHT TO THE
CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE HAD A SLOWER PROGRESSION EASTWARD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THAT OF THE QUICKER GFS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE ALSO HAD LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES THAT FAVOR SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THAT OF SNOW.
ALSO..THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE HAD VERY LIMITED...IF ANY...BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS THEY PROGRESS
NORTHEAST OVER OR NEAR THE REGION. THE 12Z/7AM GUIDANCE AMONG THE
VARIOUS MODELS SHOWS THE ECMWF SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS...WITH THE CANADIAN STILL COMPARABLE TO ITS EARLIER
COUNTERPARTS. THIS TREND...IN AT LEAST THE ECMWF...CAUSES SOME
HESITATION IN NOT HAVING ANY NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR FORECAST
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE ECMWF BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE ALSO ALLOWS
COLDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...COMPARABLE TO THE GFS
OF THE CURRENT AND EARLIER RUNS...AND ALSO ALLOWS FOR A GREATER
DEFINED BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IN THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME...AGAIN MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
OUR FORECAST TODAY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL OFFER A
COMPROMISE OF THESE TRENDS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED BREAKS IN THE
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON A COLDER LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
LINGERING COLD POOL OF SUB-FREEZING SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AND ALLOW FOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS...INCLUDING THE SURFACE. EXPECT THE LOW
TEMPERATURE TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES
THEREAFTER. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WHILE
POCKETS OF BOTH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE PROBABLE WHERE SURFACE
OR NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS AS COLD ENOUGH...OUR FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO REFLECT A RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR SIMPLICITY...AND TO SATISFY OUR
LOCAL DAY 4 AND ONWARD RULE OF NO SLEET IN THE FORECAST IN THAT TIME
RANGE.
ONCE WE GET INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...OUR FORECAST WILL NOW
REFLECT A COLDER LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE AND HAVE A RAIN VERSUS
SNOW FORECAST. GRANTED...THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME AMOUNT OF WARM
NOSE ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE SLEET OR FREEING RAIN
WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST ALSO
SATISFIES THE OTHER LOCAL RULE OF NO MORE THAN ONE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM DAY 4 AND ONWARD IN THE FORECAST.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION
TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT
THIS WITH DECREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LEFT ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EST THURSDAY...
VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING MAINLY OF
10-15KFT FALLING TOWARD 4-6KFT IN THE MTNS BY DAWN AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS. LOOKING FOR SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AND CLEAR
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST.
MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL STAY BANKED UP INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLEARING AT BLF/LWB.
STILL THINK ENOUGH STRONG WINDS ABOVE WEAK SFC INVERSION TO ALLOW
FOR LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AT ALL SITES THROUGH DAWN BEFORE MIXING
TAKES PLACE AND CORE OF LLJ LIFTS OUT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS
AND POSSIBLE WINTRY PCPN AND/OR RAIN TO SOME AREAS BY LATE SUN
NIGHT AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY...SOME MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER LOW MAY BE FOLLOWING
MONDAY`S SYSTEM AND PROLONGING THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>015-
018>020-022>024.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1016 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIND ADVSRY FOR HIGHER ELEVS IS LOOKING QUITE SUSPECT. HV NOT SEEN
ANY GUSTS INXS OF 40 MPH IN 6 HRS. MAY DROP THE ADVSRY B4 PLANNED
1 PM EXPIRATION.
WE ARE KEEPING EYES ON THE LGT BAND OF SNSH IN ASSO W/ THE CD FNT
APRCHG GARRETT CO. HRRR DOES DEPICTS IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES E.
PRVS DSCN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A STRONG SW TO NE ORIENTED LLJ HAS
MOVED INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION AND SW FLOW HAS LED TO
OVERRUNNING. MOISTURE AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON
REGIONAL RADAR THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE OVERRUNNING AND
MOISTENING IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TREKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. THIS MAY LEAD TO A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OR SCT
FLURRIES TO CROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON REGION THIS MORNING.
GUIDANCE IS DRY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS INCLUDING ALL SREF
MEMBERS AND THE HRRR HOWEVER AS STATED ABOVE...WEAK LIFT IN THE SNOW
GROWN ZONE AND LITTLE MOISTURE MAY CAUSE SNOW FLAKES TO REACH THE
GROUND. IF THEY DO THEY WILL LIKELY BE SMALL AS DRY AIR AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BANG THEM UP.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SFC TROUGH
OR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS IN THE MTNS AND IN
THE LOW 30S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WILL TAKE A PLUNGE TONIGHT AS W-NW WINDS
CONTINUE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO
BE AROUND 5 TO 15 BELOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC AND
VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THIS REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY. W-NW FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS REACHING THE TEENS IN THE HIGHLANDS AND 20S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES WL BE CENTERED ATOP CWFA SAT NGT. W/ MOCLR SKIES...LTL IF ANY
WIND...AND SUBZERO /DEGF/ DEWPTS...CONDS LOOK PRIMED FOR A RAPID
TEMP DROP AFTER SUNSET. FCST BASED ON THAT PREMISE...AND SEE NO
REASON TO ADJUST ATTM. THINK IF THINGS WERE TO GO OFF TRACK...IT
WOULD BE COLDER THAN FCST.
WAA COMMENCES AFTR MIDNGT...AND CONTS THRU SUN-SUN NGT...TIL ELY MON
MRNG. STILL NO SGFNT WX SUNDAY...JUST INCRSG CLDS. GOING FCST HAS
MAXT SUN ABT 7-10 DEGF WARMER THAN SAT. THE LOW DEWPTS SHUD KEEP SUN
EVE DRY AS WELL. THEN THINGS GET INTERESTING.
H5 PTTN WL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL...AS THE ARCTIC AMS WOULD HAVE BEEN
SCOURED OUT OF AREA. MOST S/WV ACTIVITY WL BE IN THE NRN STREAM...
WHICH IS ACRS SRN CNDA. A DRY AND OTRW BENIGN CDFNT ASSOCD W/ ONE OF
THESE VORTS WL BE CROSSING THE GRTLKS SUN NGT. HWVR...THERE IS ALSO
A WK LOW AND PACKET OF MSTR IN THE WRN GLFMEX AT THIS TIME.
CONSIDERING BROAD AREA OF ISENT LIFT...THIS MSTR WL BE DRAWN NWD IN
ADVC OF SAID FNT. THUS PCPN WL BE DVLPG OVNGT FM SW TO NE. WHILE AMS
WL NOT BE AS COLD AS RECENT PAST...ITS STILL WL BE COLD ENUF AT THE
SFC TO BE SUBFRZG...WHICH WUD BE REINFORCED BY EVAPORATION.
MEANWHILE...TEMPS ALOFT WL BE WARMING...W/ A NOSE ABV FRZG. THUS...
THINK THERE WL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF MAYBE PL...BUT OTRW WE/RE
LOOKING AT FZRA TIL SFC TEMPS CAN WARM ENUF. THIS WUD BE
CONVENIENTLY TIMED FOR THE MRNG COMMUTE. DURING THE DAY...THINK
THERE WL BE ENUF OF A PUSH TO GET MOST AREAS ABV FRZG. HV HELD ONLY
COOLER CONDS FOR THE SHEN VLY AND NRN MD BASED ON CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LTST GDNC CYCLE HAS MADE A CONTINUITY SHIFT...PLACING MORE EMPHASIS
ON BLDG HIPRES MON NGT-TUE. THAT KEEPS THE SRN STREAM SUPPRESSED...
AND THUS DRIER. THIS ALSO MEANS COOLER. HV MADE THESE ADJUSTMENTS IN
THE DATABASE. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT...AND HV REVERTED TO
CHC POPS WED-THU.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SW WINDS 10-20KTS
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME W THIS EVENING. GUSTS AROUND
20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY.
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE WKND UNDER HIPRES.
MSTR SPREAD NEWD ELY MON MRNG...DURING THE PUSH. W/ AMS IN PLACE
SUBFRZG...THERES A RISK OF FZRA TIL IT CAN BE SCOURED OUT. AS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME FRAME...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR SPCIFICS...
OTHER THAN TO LEAN ON CLIMO-- DCA/BWI WL CHANGE FIRST AND PSBL
ICINESS MORE STUBBORN AT MRB.
AT THIS PT...TUE LOOKS DRY.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS 15-25 KT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH. A LULL IN THE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND MIDDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS
BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BECOME WESTERLY AND GUST AROUND 20 KTS TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
A SCA ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE
WATERS.
LGT WINDS SAT NGT BCMG SLY SUNDAY. PCPN SPREADS NEWD ELY MON. MAY BE
A LTL ICY TIL TEMPS CAN WARM AND RA TAKES OVER. A CDFNT WL SWEEP
EVERYTHING TO THE E MON NGT. WL BE A SCA POTL POST-FROPA...SPCLY ON
TUE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ501-502.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MDZ501-502.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ025>027-029-
503-504-507-508.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ050-055-
501>506.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HAS/HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1050 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS
TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REINFORCING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW AND EXTEND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM FRIDAY...
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED THROUGHOUT VIRTUALLY ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DRY AIR
MASS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE SHOULD MOVE TOWARD
THE MOUNTAINS BY 20Z OR SO. IN LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS...A PRO IS THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE BUT
A CON IS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION EFFECTS
ALOFT IN THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE. BOTH THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL AND THE LATEST HRRR WRF...
AND TO SOME EXTENT RAP HIGH-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS...
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SOME CIRRUS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A
FOCUS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT TOWARD THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN
OR SO.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO RECOVER NICELY WITH THE SUN AND HIGHS
FROM 40 TO 45 SEEM REASONABLE...PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TODAY...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST LAV GUIDANCE AND WHAT 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WOULD PORTRAY. AS THE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED...WILL
CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR SAMPSON COUNTY.
MIXING THIS MORNING HAVE SHOWN A FEW GUSTS TO AT OR JUST ABOVE 20KT.
RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH
SOME...INTO THE MID TEENS KNOTS...BY MID-AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY: REINFORCING...1041 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MONTANA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TN
VALLEY TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY SAT.
THOUGH THIS HIGH IS NOT QUITE AS COLD AND STRONG AS THE PREDECESSOR
HIGH...IT WILL STILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
CENTRAL NC. IN FACT...PROJECTED 12Z LOW LEVEL THICKNESSE VALUES OF
AROUND 1260 METERS AT GSO SUPPORTS LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TEENS
TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. THE COLD...AND A 5-10 MPH NORTHWESTERLY WIND
USHERING THAT RENEWED ARCTIC AIR INTO CENTRAL NC...WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE PIEDMONT TO 10-
15 OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY. RATHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING
THE PERIOD. THE SHORT TERM WEATHER WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS DRY
WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASING LATE AT NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ESPECIALLY INT HE EAST AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN
THE 16-22 RANGE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT FROM SATURDAY
AND RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. -BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY MAY LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED LOCATIONS MID WEEK.
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSITION A SOUTHERN STREAM
DOMINANT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY IN THE LONG TERM AND CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY LEADS TO MORE
UNCERTAINTY THAN AVERAGE...OFTEN ALONG WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AS LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVE QUICKLY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. TIMING THESE
FEATURES AND RESOLVING DETAILS IS OFTEN PROBLEMATIC AS IS
IDENTIFYING POTENTIAL PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
WITH ALL OF THE CAVEATS OF OUT THE WAY...THE FIRST DISTURBANCE TO
AFFECT THE LONG TERM WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY EVENING. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT EARLY MONDAY COMBINED
WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A COUPLE
BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT. PARTIAL
THICKNESS VALUES FROM THE GFS/NAM/AND ALL SREF MEMBERS SUGGEST AN
ALL RAIN EVENT BUT SURFACE WET BULBS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AROUND ONSET
TIME. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE THE TREND FOR
SLOWER PRECIP ARRIVAL...FAVOR AN ALL RAIN FORECAST FOR NOW BUT THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE TRIAD AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY
MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AGAIN.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES A GREAT DEAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE MIGRATING SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THAT RIDGES INTO THE PIEDMONT
OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS. THIS COLDER TREND AND STRONGER COLD AIR
DAMMING SIGNATURE LEADS TO A MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN BUT ONE THAT
COULD SUPPORT SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. WITH THE SOUTHERN SHIFT OF THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WE HAVE LOWERED POPS BELOW WPC GUIDANCE AND
SHIFTED THEM SOUTHWARD. THE TREND APPEARS TO BE FOR A LESS IMPACTFUL
SYSTEM. THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LARGELY RESULT
FROM SOME SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AN EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE INCLUDED FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING...IF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...THESE TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM AND THE WINTRY P-TYPE AREA
WOULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER
40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.
AFTER A LULL LATE WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AS SOME
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING IS IMPLIED. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY HALF OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE
PARALLEL GFS. THE SURFACE WAVE IS LIKELY TO BE WEAK AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BEFORE STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE. A PERIOD OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC WIL HAVE MODERATED
ENOUGH FOR AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40 AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1050 AM FRIDAY...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL
HAVE RELATIVE GREATEST COVERAGE LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-15 KTS
MAY BE BRIEFLY GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KTS...AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR-
INDUCING LOW LEVEL JET MIXES OUT AND LIFTS AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC.
WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A DRY/VFR
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OUTLOOK: WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF TO SE COASTS WILL
INTERACT WITH A SERIES OF ARCTIC HIGHS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED THREAT OF
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS --AND WET TO WINTRY CONDITIONS- SUN NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS/DJF
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...MWS/DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
407 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WINTER WEATHER CONTINUES AROUND THE AREA TODAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE BORDERLAND LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING SO EXPECT JUST SOME LIGHT COLD RAIN. MOUNTAIN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 7500 FEET...COULD SEE ONE TO THREE INCHES
OF SNOW BY THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE THE LOW AND MOISTURE MOVE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW
MEXICO MONDAY..SPREADING SOME SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE
DRIER WITH LESS CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AROUND THE
BORDERLAND AS AN UPPER LOW WELL SOUTH OF TUCSON DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. MAIN (ONLY) PRECIP BAND EXTENDS FROM THE GILA
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS SIERRA COUNT AND OVER TO THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. THIS BAND LIES IN A RATHER PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A GRAVITY WAVE MOVED OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS LAST
NIGHT AND DOWN TO THIS DEFORMATION ZONE EARLY THIS MORNING...PERHAPS
ENHANCING THE PRECIP A BIT. MESONET OBS SHOW SNOW LEVELS OVER THE
GILA AROUND 7500-8000 FT...WHILE OVER THE SACS THE SNOW LEVEL LOOKS
TO BE AROUND 6500 FT. CLOUDCROFT WEBCAMS SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW THERE
AND BOTH AREA MOUNTAINS COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW AT THEIR
RESPECTIVE SNOW LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE ANOTHER BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY DROPPING SOUTH TO THE AREA. SATELLITE/OBS
SHOW FRONT JUST AN HOUR OR TWO NORTH OF RUIDOSO AND ROSWELL AND
SHOULD REACH THE SACS WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR SHOWS IT
REACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG WEST SLOPES OF THE FRANKLIN/ORGAN MOUNTAINS
AGAIN...FROM ABOUT 9AM TO 2PM. COULD BRIEFLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS TIME. MODELS SHOWING THIS FRONT
COOLING MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND RENDERING THE FREEZING PRECIP
PROFILE OBSOLETE.
SOME PRECIP LIKELY TO CONTINUE SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE
LOW IS OVER THE BIG BEND REGION AS IT WEAKENS. BY SATURDAY EVENING
IT IS PAST THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SHOULD ALLOW MOST OR ALL PRECIP TO
END. IF SOME PRECIP LINGERS INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...LOWLANDS
COULD SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS NEW MEXICO MONDAY. LIMITED POPS
TO MOSTLY THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH ECMWF BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PATH
AND THEREFORE ALL AREAS MAY HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MAIN UPPER LOW
THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST RIGHT BEHIND THIS TROUGH ON TUESDAY FOR A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 7000
FT. GFS STILL CUTTING THIS LOW OFF AND RETROGRADING IT BACK TO
WESTERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHILE ECMWF KEEPS IT
PROGRESSIVE AND EAST OF THE AREA AFTER TUESDAY. EITHER SOLUTION
LIKELY MEANS MOSTLY DRY AFTER TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 09/12Z-10/12Z...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TODAY ALTHOUGH MAIN BAND OF THICKER
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
REDROCK TO HATCH TO ALAMOGORDO. CONDITIONS SOUTH MOSTLY
VFR...CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN/OVC120
WITH LAYERS TO 300. OCNL -RA BKN090...WITH OCNL CIGS AOB 030 VSBYS
3-5SM -SN ABOVE 7000 FT. WINDS INCREASING TO EAST 15-25 KTS THIS
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN. HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE
ALONG WEST SLOPES OF TERRAIN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...MOSTLY OVER THE FIRE ZONES
FROM AND EAST-WEST LINE CENTERED ON HATCH. SOME SNOW IS LIKELY IN
THIS AREA ABOVE 7000 FT. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING EAST WINDS
OF 15 TO 30 MPH LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START AROUND 7000 FT BUT WILL FALL TO AROUND 4000 FT
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW IN
THE LOWLAND ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY/TUESDAY...MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS FOR THIS EVENT MOSTLY AT AROUND
7000 FT. MIN RH`S WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 50-65% TODAY AND SATURDAY
BEFORE LOWERING ABOUT 10 POINTS SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 41 26 47 33 57 / 20 20 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 35 22 44 32 55 / 20 20 20 0 0
LAS CRUCES 41 26 45 32 55 / 20 20 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 42 24 47 30 54 / 60 20 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 34 19 39 24 44 / 50 20 20 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 41 26 47 32 54 / 50 20 20 0 0
SILVER CITY 41 28 45 33 52 / 60 20 10 10 0
DEMING 44 27 47 31 56 / 30 20 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 46 28 47 33 56 / 20 20 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 43 28 47 31 56 / 20 20 10 0 0
DELL CITY 33 23 43 28 56 / 30 20 20 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 42 24 49 31 58 / 20 20 20 0 0
LOMA LINDA 35 24 42 34 53 / 20 20 20 0 0
FABENS 42 24 46 31 57 / 20 20 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 42 24 47 31 56 / 20 20 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 41 27 46 34 55 / 40 20 20 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 42 22 47 28 55 / 60 20 20 0 0
HATCH 44 26 48 31 57 / 60 20 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 45 28 45 34 56 / 20 10 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 41 24 46 31 54 / 40 20 20 0 0
MAYHILL 32 20 46 29 50 / 40 20 20 0 0
MESCALERO 32 19 42 27 47 / 40 20 10 10 0
TIMBERON 38 19 43 27 49 / 50 20 20 0 0
WINSTON 41 26 47 32 51 / 40 20 10 10 0
HILLSBORO 41 28 46 34 54 / 60 20 20 10 0
SPACEPORT 42 23 47 29 55 / 60 20 20 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 40 27 49 32 51 / 60 20 10 20 0
HURLEY 42 28 45 33 54 / 60 20 10 10 0
CLIFF 45 27 47 30 55 / 60 20 10 10 0
MULE CREEK 45 27 45 28 53 / 30 20 10 10 10
FAYWOOD 45 28 45 34 54 / 60 20 10 10 0
ANIMAS 50 29 49 33 59 / 20 20 10 0 0
HACHITA 48 29 47 30 58 / 20 20 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 28 51 32 60 / 20 20 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 54 28 51 36 59 / 20 20 10 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17 HEFNER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
358 AM PST FRI JAN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Low clouds and fog under high pressure will linger through Friday.
A series of upper level disturbances Saturday through early next
week will bring the next chance of precipitation with light snow
possible for some valley locations.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...A highly meridional rideg over the region
today will flatten into a westerly flow allowing the pattern to
become more progressive. However...this activity aloft will have
little impact on sensible weather as the air mass will remain
decoupled with a strong low level inversion locking in the
stagnant boundary layer in the Columbia Basin. Some relief from
the low clouds and fog has occurred over the eastern basin
overnight with a shot of dry Canadian continental air filtering
in through the Purcell trench. The easterly gradient driving this
invasion will slacken once again today and set up favorable
conditions for a return of low clouds to much of the region...but
less fog potential today with drier air at the surface. Mainly
patchy fog will exist today in wind sheltered locations and near
water courses. Otherwise a seasonably cool day and overnight
period is expected with thick low clouds in the deeper basin and
increasing low clouds again over the higher basin locations...with
perhaps some filtered sun in the morning before stratus thickens
up again.
Saturday...Latest models are all in agreement in bringing in a
shot of deeper moisture with a weak short wave transit on
Saturday. Dynamic support is sparse and nebulous with this
feature but model soundings suggest near saturation of the air
mass below 700 mb during the afternoon with weak isentropic ascent
over the eastern half of the forecast area. While not a big deal
as far as precipitation potential...in the past these weak deep
winter low level isentropic events have been known to cause
trouble with unexpected light snow accumulations (on the order of
a quarter to half an inch or so) causing slippery road
conditions. While not a sure bet and confidence is low that
anything will actually occur...there is ample justification to at
least mention a chance of light snow Saturday afternoon over much
of the eastern forecast area. /Fugazzi
Saturday night through Monday night: The upper level ridge will weaken
and several weak impulses will track through the region bringing
spotty light precipitation. This is going to be a messy pattern to
track with numerous areas of spotty light precipitation falling in
the form of rain, snow, sleet, and perhaps brief freezing rain.
Amounts will be too light to classify this as a winter storm but a
nuisance to travel is a strong possibility anywhere a few tenths
of snow or light ice may fall. There has a been a shift northward
with these weak impulses which also includes energy coming from
the northern branch in Canada so just about every location carries
some mention of precipitation with the most consistent message
continuing to be the Idaho Panhandle and Blue Mtns. For the
multiple day period, we are looking for the potential for 1-3
inches of snow in the mountains and generally less than an inch in
most lowlands. We are also monitoring the potential for a wintry
mix of sleet or freezing rain in the southwestern Basin, Wenatchee
Area, and valleys of southern Chelan County. Models are not
handling thermal profiles particularly well right now and with
spotty precipitation expected in these areas, confidence regarding
details are low at this point.
Tuesday through Thursday: High pressure will rebound delivering
another drying trend and widespread fog and low clouds. Without
any more drying in the boundary layer after tonight, this
weekend`s precipitation will just add fuel to the fire and as
inversions strengthens, the low clouds will blanket most valleys.
The weather looks to turn active again for late week into the weekend
as the ridge shifts east and moist, mild southwest flow returns.
Exact timing of the initial precipitation still carries some
uncertainty with GFS still a day or so slower than the ECMWF.
Precip type will vary based on timing and how conditions evolve
leading up to the event but general pattern recognition suggest a
wintry mix transitioning to lowland rain. More details to follow
in the coming days. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A strong low level inversion underneath a ridge aloft
will continue to promote areas of IFR and LIFR stratus and fog
over the Columbia basin through the next 24 hours. An easterly
wind advecting dry air into the KGEG area and overnight even to
the KMWH area has allowed fog and low clouds to evaporate...while
this dry air has not penetrated to KPUW and KLWS where LIFR
conditions persist this morning. The gradient will slacken today
and allow stratus decks to migrate back north into the KGEG...KSFF
and KCOE area during the afternoon hours and probably approach the
KMWH TAF site as well. HRRR model forecast suggest the KPUW TAF
site may break out to VFR this afternoon but this is not supported
by boundary layer RH fields of other models. KEAT may be on the
edge of the stratus area this morning but the surface gradient
will promote banking of stratus against the Cascades overnight
tonight. Forecast for areas of IFR stratus in the Columbia Basin
is high confidence...but timing of conditions and severity at TAF
sites is low confidence after 18Z. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 32 27 34 28 34 29 / 10 10 30 30 20 20
Coeur d`Alene 33 25 33 27 34 28 / 10 10 30 40 20 30
Pullman 35 31 38 31 38 32 / 10 10 30 40 30 30
Lewiston 39 31 42 34 43 34 / 10 10 20 30 40 30
Colville 31 20 31 27 32 24 / 10 10 30 30 20 10
Sandpoint 31 22 33 23 33 25 / 10 10 30 30 30 20
Kellogg 33 28 34 29 35 28 / 0 10 40 50 30 30
Moses Lake 36 27 34 29 34 28 / 10 10 10 20 20 20
Wenatchee 34 28 34 29 34 30 / 10 10 10 20 20 30
Omak 37 24 30 27 33 25 / 10 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
235 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
HAS MOVED WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...LEAVING ITS BAND OF
DISSIPATING CLOUDS AND SNOW BEHIND. JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES
ARE FADING OUT OVER NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SUNSHINE...AND POSITION JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY...HAS BEEN
ENOUGH FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO MAKE IT TO FREEZING OR A TICK ABOVE
THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE NOW ON THE
WAY BACK DOWN. READINGS AT 2 PM RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND NEAR 10 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH. WINDS
THROUGH THE AREA HAVE SWITCHED TO MORE WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH STILL POSSIBLE...WHILE A BIT MORE BEHIND THE
FRONT THE DIRECTION IS MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH RESIDENT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
AND RELAXES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION AS HEIGHTS REBOUND QUICKLY BY
SATURDAY EVENING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A DEVELOPING SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY OVER KENTUCKY. WITH THE GENERAL MODEL
AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE BRISK CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING AS
NORTHWEST WINDS BRING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES. THIS LATEST ARCTIC
SURGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THE LAST ONE WITH TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY DAWN SATURDAY.
WITH THE WINDS SETTLING AS THE COLDEST AIR MOVES IN WE WILL BE SPARED
THE WORST OF THE WIND CHILLS...THOUGH...THEY WILL LIKELY DROP TO
NEAR ZERO IN A FEW PLACES TONIGHT. THE CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST
PLACES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RETREATING HIGH SETS THE STAGE FOR
A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS WITH SOME MINOR TERRAIN BASED POINT
ADJUSTMENTS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. AS FOR POPS...ASIDE FROM SOME
LINGERING SINGLE DIGIT VALUES EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
EAST...HAVE BASICALLY ZEROED OUT POPS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...ALSO
IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT A WARM FRONT
ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS.
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION AT BAY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...BUT MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH PRECIPITATION MAKING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY EARLY EVENING. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY WITH
WITH CLOUDS MOVING ON IN...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF MUCH
INTO THE NIGHT. THUS...AS IT STANDS NOW...WE SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES (AND FREEZING
RAIN THREAT) STAYING JUST TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION...WE MAY SEE A
BIT OF SLEET MIX IN INITIALLY BEFORE SEEING JUST RAIN. THE SLEET
THREAT WILL BE PRIMARILY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ONGOING ON MONDAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXING WITH AND PERHAPS CHANGING TO
SNOW LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...DEEPER
MOISTURE IS DEPARTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS MONDAY...AND WE MAY
LOSE THE ICE IN THE CLOUDS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE DRIZZLE VERSES
SNOW. REGARDLESS...ANY SNOW SHOULD HAVE VERY LOW IMPACT ON THE AREA
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...LIMITING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE DEPARTS THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER A DRY PERIOD ON TUESDAY...A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF SNOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...BUT A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A BETTER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM
KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE VERY NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM. STILL LOTS OF DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE PRIMARILY
SNOW...ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND PRECIPITATION TYPE MIGHT BE DETERMINED BY PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY...WITH BETTER RATES YIELDING SNOW...AND LIGHTER RATES
BEING MORE RAIN OR DRIZZLE. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE SOUTHERN
TREND CONTINUES AS THIS COULD SHIFT PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA
IF IT CONTINUES. THE WEATHER WILL FINALLY QUIET DOWN BY LATE
THURSDAY WITH A QUIETER...BUT STILL CHILLY END TO THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
WITH THE CLOUDS THINNING OUT AND BREAKING UP AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
MOVES IN...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MVFR CIGS UNTIL MAYBE
LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW TAKES HOLD...FOR A TIME.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
SITES. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...SETTLING FROM BREEZY 10 TO 20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 5 KTS BY 06Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1156 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HV DROPPED THE WIND AVSRY FOR HIGHER ELEVS. ALSO UPDATED THE
TEMPS WHICH WERE ALREADY APRCHG THE FCSTD HIGHS IN MANY SPOTS. THE
TEMPS CLIMB WL LKLY END AFTR THE FNT PASSES THRU THE AREA.
WE ARE KEEPING EYES ON THE LGT BAND OF SNSH IN ASSO W/ THE CD FNT
APRCHG GARRETT CO. HRRR DEPICTS IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES E.
PRVS DSCN...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SFC
TROUGH OR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WILL PLUNGE TONIGHT AS W-NW WINDS CONTINUE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 15 BELOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC AND VIRGINIA
HIGHLANDS. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THIS REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY. W-NW FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS REACHING THE TEENS IN THE HIGHLANDS AND 20S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES WL BE CENTERED ATOP CWFA SAT NGT. W/ MOCLR SKIES...LTL IF ANY
WIND...AND SUBZERO /DEGF/ DEWPTS...CONDS LOOK PRIMED FOR A RAPID
TEMP DROP AFTER SUNSET. FCST BASED ON THAT PREMISE...AND SEE NO
REASON TO ADJUST ATTM. THINK IF THINGS WERE TO GO OFF TRACK...IT
WOULD BE COLDER THAN FCST.
WAA COMMENCES AFTR MIDNGT...AND CONTS THRU SUN-SUN NGT...TIL ELY MON
MRNG. STILL NO SGFNT WX SUNDAY...JUST INCRSG CLDS. GOING FCST HAS
MAXT SUN ABT 7-10 DEGF WARMER THAN SAT. THE LOW DEWPTS SHUD KEEP SUN
EVE DRY AS WELL. THEN THINGS GET INTERESTING.
H5 PTTN WL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL...AS THE ARCTIC AMS WOULD HAVE BEEN
SCOURED OUT OF AREA. MOST S/WV ACTIVITY WL BE IN THE NRN STREAM...
WHICH IS ACRS SRN CNDA. A DRY AND OTRW BENIGN CDFNT ASSOCD W/ ONE OF
THESE VORTS WL BE CROSSING THE GRTLKS SUN NGT. HWVR...THERE IS ALSO
A WK LOW AND PACKET OF MSTR IN THE WRN GLFMEX AT THIS TIME.
CONSIDERING BROAD AREA OF ISENT LIFT...THIS MSTR WL BE DRAWN NWD IN
ADVC OF SAID FNT. THUS PCPN WL BE DVLPG OVNGT FM SW TO NE. WHILE AMS
WL NOT BE AS COLD AS RECENT PAST...ITS STILL WL BE COLD ENUF AT THE
SFC TO BE SUBFRZG...WHICH WUD BE REINFORCED BY EVAPORATION.
MEANWHILE...TEMPS ALOFT WL BE WARMING...W/ A NOSE ABV FRZG. THUS...
THINK THERE WL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF MAYBE PL...BUT OTRW WE/RE
LOOKING AT FZRA TIL SFC TEMPS CAN WARM ENUF. THIS WUD BE
CONVENIENTLY TIMED FOR THE MRNG COMMUTE. DURING THE DAY...THINK
THERE WL BE ENUF OF A PUSH TO GET MOST AREAS ABV FRZG. HV HELD ONLY
COOLER CONDS FOR THE SHEN VLY AND NRN MD BASED ON CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LTST GDNC CYCLE HAS MADE A CONTINUITY SHIFT...PLACING MORE EMPHASIS
ON BLDG HIPRES MON NGT-TUE. THAT KEEPS THE SRN STREAM SUPPRESSED...
AND THUS DRIER. THIS ALSO MEANS COOLER. HV MADE THESE ADJUSTMENTS IN
THE DATABASE. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT...AND HV REVERTED TO
CHC POPS WED-THU.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR FOR THE REST
OF THE WKND UNDER HIPRES.
MSTR SPREAD NEWD ELY MON MRNG...DURING THE PUSH. W/ AMS IN PLACE
SUBFRZG...THERES A RISK OF FZRA TIL IT CAN BE SCOURED OUT. AS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME FRAME...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR SPCIFICS...
OTHER THAN TO LEAN ON CLIMO-- DCA/BWI WL CHANGE FIRST AND PSBL
ICINESS MORE STUBBORN AT MRB.
AT THIS PT...TUE LOOKS DRY.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS 15-25 KT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH. A LULL IN THE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND MIDDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS
BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BECOME WESTERLY AND GUST AROUND 20 KTS TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
A SCA ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE
WATERS.
LGT WINDS SAT NGT BCMG SLY SUNDAY. PCPN SPREADS NEWD ELY MON. MAY BE
A LTL ICY TIL TEMPS CAN WARM AND RA TAKES OVER. A CDFNT WL SWEEP
EVERYTHING TO THE E MON NGT. WL BE A SCA POTL POST-FROPA...SPCLY ON
TUE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MDZ501-502.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HAS/HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
242 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...
GENERALLY ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. DEEP COLD AIR
GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE EAST AS WARM AIR FILLS IN TO THE WEST.
THIS WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES THIS
EVENING. HRRR CROSS SECTIONS SHOW WARM AIR DEEPENING OVER
BILLINGS. SO I ANTICIPATE A RISE IN TEMPERATURES FROM AT LEAST
BILLINGS WESTWARD. THERE IS SOME DOUBT IF IT CAN PUSH ALL THE WAY
TO THE DAKOTA BORDER. AS FOR WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT...THEY DO NOT
LOOK NEARLY AS BAD AS LAST NIGHT WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW TYPICAL AND
WINDS MARGINAL FOR MEETING CRITERIA. THEREFORE...WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR WIND CHILLS AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY IS QUIET OVERALL...BUT WE DO HAVE SOME WEAK CHANNEL-WISE
VORTICITY TRACKING ACROSS NE MONTANA. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE
AND FORCING SO I ONLY ADDED SOME FLURRIES TO THE MILES CITY/BAKER
AREA FOR THIS WEATHER FEATURE. WEST OF THIS AREA WE SHOULD SEE
SOME MODEST PREFRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SWINGING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO REGION FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY TURN EASTERLY AND UPSLOPE INTO
THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS AND BEARTOOTHS ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH DECENT
FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UP FROM THE CRAZIES/LITTLE BELTS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PRYORS/BIG HORNS. THIS APPEARS TO BE A
QUICK HIT AND OUT SYSTEM AS FORCING DIMINISHES QUICKLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING. TWO TO FOUR INCHES LOOK TYPICAL WEST OF A ROUNDUP TO
BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN LINE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OR LESS TO THE
EAST. NORTHEAST FACING FOOTHILLS COULD SEE THREE TO SIX INCHES AS
COULD SOME WEST FACING SLOPES EARLIER IN THE EVENT DUE TO
OROGRAPHICS. OTHERWISE...I DONT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING
PROGGED FROM ANY OF THE MODELS FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. MUCH OF THE
FORCING IS INDUCED BY THE 500MB HEIGHT FALLS PROCESS.
ALSO...THANKFULLY SREF PROGGS INDICATE RATHER SHALLOW DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYERS AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY TRENDS
THAT DEVELOP. FROM ALL THE SNOW WE HAVE HAD...ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION WILL MAKE SIDE ROADS QUITE DIFFICULT TO DEAL WITH. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A WARMING TREND FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND UPPER TROFINESS CONTINUE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO 20S MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FLOPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. BY THURSDAY STRONG ZONAL
FLOW WILL PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL CANADA WITH WEAK ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER MONTANA. A DOWNSLOPE SURFACE PATTERN STRENGTHENS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD DRIVE TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AND MAY ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
A DEVELOPING CONCERN WITH THE ANTICIPATED WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND ICE JAM FORMATION. AS TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO
THE MID 40S WILL SEE THE WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK MELT. THE GROUND IS
FROZEN IN MOST AREAS THUS THIS WATER WILL RUNOFF AND POND AS
OPPOSED TO SOAKING INTO THE GROUND. CANT RULE OUT SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS IF
THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS HOLD. ONCE THIS WATER GETS INTO
LARGER STREAMS AND RIVERS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS AND LOCAL
FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS IS THE
OPPORTUNITY TO GET OUT AND ENSURE LIVESTOCK AND EQUIPMENT ARE AWAY
FROM FLOOD PRONE AREAS AND TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THIS
POTENTIAL RUNOFF. IN URBAN AREAS SUCH AS BILLINGS...TRY TO CLEAR
STORM DRAINS THAT ARE PLUGGED WITH SNOW TO ALLOW RUNOFF TO DRAIN
EFFECTIVELY AND NOT BACK UP ACROSS ROADWAYS OR INTO BASEMENTS.
CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW FROM THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS NORTHEAST TOWARD BILLINGS
THIS EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT VISIBILITY TO
DROP BELOW LOCALIZED MVFR CRITERIA WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 017/027 015/020 007/021 013/029 017/035 023/040 028/044
00/E 47/S 32/J 21/B 00/U 00/N 11/B
LVM 023/037 024/031 012/035 020/036 019/039 024/043 027/046
01/N 37/S 42/J 21/B 00/U 00/N 11/N
HDN 007/025 010/021 003/021 007/029 013/034 015/040 019/041
00/E 26/S 42/J 20/B 00/B 00/U 11/B
MLS 905/016 004/014 903/016 005/024 011/033 017/035 021/040
01/M 23/S 11/B 11/B 00/B 00/U 11/U
4BQ 004/024 008/019 003/022 009/028 012/035 016/038 020/041
00/E 04/S 21/B 11/B 00/B 00/U 00/B
BHK 905/015 002/013 909/015 005/023 010/032 016/035 021/040
02/S 23/S 10/B 00/B 00/B 00/U 11/B
SHR 012/031 014/025 006/026 011/031 013/036 017/041 022/043
00/B 15/S 52/J 21/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
114 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE
SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EST FRIDAY... THE LAKE EFFECT BAND HAS COMBINED AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A NARROW LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS OF
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE SQUALLS ARE MOVING QUITE QUICKLY AND ONLY
PERSISTING FOR ABOUT 20-30 MINUTES BEFORE CLEARING. TRIED TO
FOCUS A BIT ON TIMING IN THE GRIDS AND SO I USED SOME OF THE BTV
WRF WITH A BLEND OF THE RUC REFLECTIVITY TO DERIVE THE POP GRIDS
OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE TO ADD CURRENT
OBS FOR WINDS/TEMPS/DEW POINTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COMPOSITE RADAR
SHOWS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST
OVER SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. AS SUCH I INCREASED POPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY. THE 12Z SUITE OF HI RES
WINDOWS SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT THE BAND WILL LINGER AND MAKE IT
ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
OTHER THAN THAT THE ONLY ADDITIONAL UPDATE WAS TO FRESHEN UP THE
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS WE ARE ALREADY WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE WARMING TO
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE
PLEASANT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AREA.
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
AREA. MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TOO COLD GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...SO AGAIN HAVE GONE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST FRIDAY...LONG TERM FCST WL CONT TO FEATURE
MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH OUR CWA STILL BEING
IMPACTED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON
MONDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND SOME ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB RH IMPACTS OUR CWA FROM SW TO NE. THIS INCREASE
RH...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST WL RESULT IN A
LIGHT/WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACRS OUR CWA. THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WL
KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS BTWN A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES MTNS...WITH
THE TYPICAL SHADOWING HERE IN THE CPV. ON MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDS
STRONG SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
DRY LAYER OVERHEAD...COMBINED WITH LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS...WL
RESULT IN SOME CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS TUES AND WEDS MORNINGS.
EXPECT A LARGE VARIATION IN TEMPS BASED ON ELEVATION...WITH
COLDEST VALUES BTWN -10F AND -20F IN THE PROTECTED SNOW COVERED
MTN VALLEYS...WHILE MIDSLOPE AREAS STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO. DAYTIME HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S...SUPPORTED
BY PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -9C AND -13C. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
SNOW PACK...STRONG TEMP INVERSION MAY DEVELOP AND LIMIT SFC
HEATING IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDS...WITH WARMING
ALOFT.
WE ARE STILL WATCHING A SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR LATE WEEK...AS 00Z
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE
ECMWF. STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE MID/UPPER LVL PATTERN
FOR PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACRS OUR CWA...AS SYSTEM
REMAINS UNPHASED/PROGRESSIVE IN THE FAST FLW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR PHASING LOOKS POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE POSITION OF
SOUTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY...IN RELATIONSHIP TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT 00Z FRIDAY AND DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WL MENTION CHC POPS
ATTM...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS WL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...LINE OF SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A 20-30 MINUTE PERIOD OF 1/4SM VSBY...WHICH WILL AFFECT
PBG/BTV AROUND 18Z...AND EVENTUALLY MPV/RUT TAF SITES 20-22Z. WILL
ALSO SEE SOME WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP DEVELOP 20-22Z...EXCEPT LOCALLY MVFR AT
SLK/MPV WITH CONTINUED SNOW FLURRIES. AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
BECOMES REESTABLISHED OFF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK 03-12Z SATURDAY WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCD. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH...BECOMING SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT SLK AND MSS SATURDAY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z
SUNDAY. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR SNOWFALL DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. GENERALLY VFR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THRU WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ030-
087.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
259 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND REMAINS AT
LEAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY MONDAY
DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...
CLEAR CONDITIONS HAD DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AHEAD OF
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. A MORE NOTICEABLE 700MB
SHORTWAVE AS FORECAST BY THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
130KT 300MB JET PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH OF THE AIR MASS WILL
BE DRY...WITH ESSENTIALLY ONLY MOISTURE AROUND 300MB AS BUFR
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
A LARGE VOLUME AND K INDICES FALLING INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO. ALREADY UPSTREAM...IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE AND JET APPROACH...WATER VAPOR AND STANDARD IR SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW STRANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. GFS UPPER-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY...THE CANADIAN CLOUD
COVER MODEL...AND HRRR SHORT-TERM CLOUD COVER GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...LEAST CONFIDENT AND
FOR THE SHORTEST TIME TOWARD THE TRIAD AND MORE CONFIDENT AND FOR A
LONGER AMOUNT OF TIME AS ONE GOES SOUTHEAST. LATE TONIGHT...EVEN THE
MOISTURE ALOFT DRIES WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AND AS THE JET ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN.
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE NORTHWEST...AND THE WARMER MOS
GUIDANCE TOWARD KFAY...FOR LOWS OF 15 TO 20 WEST OF INTERSTATE
95...AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S RIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MIXING OVERNIGHT AS 850MB AND
925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35KT AND KEEP SOME WIND AT THE
SURFACE...ENOUGH THAT MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE MINIMUM WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
PARTICULARLY TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ...THOSE MINIMUM WIND CHILLS MAY
ONLY GET AS LOW AS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 10F DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE EXIT OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS TIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE 850MB AND 925MB WINDS OF 25 TO 35KT...BUT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY SUCH THAT THE GFS REALLY
DIMINISHES THE 925MB WINDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SATURDAY...LEAVING
THEM 5 TO 10KT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MIXING SATURDAY GFS AND NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SOME GUSTS
IN THE TEENS KNOTS WHICH SHOULD AGAIN DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON.
UNDER 850MB SUBSIDENCE AND THETA-E TROUGHING...AND K INDICES WELL
INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE FIGURES...THE AIR MASS IS DRY...AND DEW
POINTS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD GO
NEGATIVE SATURDAY. UNDER CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE THAT IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 64 AND INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF CIRRUS
ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS SOUTHWEST...BUT
MOS GUIDANCE IS CHILLY UNDER THE RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS AND
CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET...AND IS CONSIDERABLE REASONABLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP CENTRAL NC DRY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CLOUD THINGS UP BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO OVERCAST BY EVENING. MODELS CURRENTLY
PROGGING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW TO
ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0-6Z MONDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT WARMER DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL KEEP LOWS
ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIPIATION ALL LIQUID AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE
ALSO TRENDING WETTER AND WILL INCREASE QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE TO NEAR HALF OF AN INCH ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS
INDICATING BETWEEN A HALF OF AN INCH AND AN INCH OF RAIN IN SOME
SPOTS. TIMING DETAILS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN ARE STILL LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THE GFS BRINING PRECIP IN EARLIER MONDAY MORNING AND THE ECWMF
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S NW TO SE SUNDAY AND MODERATING
TO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
QUESTION OF WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS AT THAT TIME. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL EITHER BE WETTER AND ABOVE FREEZING OR DRIER AND
BELOW FREEZING DEPENDING ON THE SOLUTION. STAY TUNED FOR EVOLVING
DETAILS ON ANY P-TYPE OR BLACK ICE ISSUES FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...
THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNSETTLED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR NON-LIQUID P-TYPES.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE THE EXITING COAST LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND
POTENTIALLY A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND THE NORTHWARD EXTEND OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD KEEP
CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM. CLOSER TOWARDS EVENING...A WEDGE FRONT
BUILDS SOUTHWARD OUT OF A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPIATION
AS TEMPERATURES DROP TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS HAS
WET BULB TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY
00Z AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S EVERYWHERE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE LOWS RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY BELOW...THE CHANCES
FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOK GOOD...IF WE CAN GET
THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TEMPERATURES THERE ARE MARGINAL. THEREFORE
WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z ON
WEDNESDAY. QPF LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MOST PLACES SEEING
PROBABLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE WEDGE
SHARPENS UP AND THE TRIAD STRUGGLES TO GET OUT OF THE 30S. MEANWHILE
ALONG I-95 TEMP WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A STRONGER
COASTAL LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT
FOR SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION BUT THE SYSTEM PASSING SO FAR OFFSHORE
GIVE LOW CONFIDENCE TO WHETHER OR NOT PRECIPIATION WILL MOVE THIS
FAR NORTHWARD. WILL KEEP AS RAIN FOR NOW BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
FROZEN P-TYPES IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS
AROUND FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING WILL RISE TO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50
IN THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL END THURSDAY
EVENING AND SKIES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FOR FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND...AT LEAST INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH 0
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY...THEN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN APPEAR POSSIBLE...MVFR THE LIKELY CATEGORY IF IT OCCURS...
WITH MORE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR PRECIPITATION NEAR AND NORTHWEST
OF THE TRIAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH REGARD TO
PRECIPITATION TYPE...TEMPERATURE...AND TIMING. CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. THROUGH TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER...BECOMING NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND NORTH EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SOME GUSTINESS LIKELY INTO
THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
245 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND REMAINS AT
LEAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY MONDAY
DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...
CLEAR CONDITIONS HAD DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AHEAD OF
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. A MORE NOTICEABLE 700MB
SHORTWAVE AS FORECAST BY THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
130KT 300MB JET PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH OF THE AIR MASS WILL
BE DRY...WITH ESSENTIALLY ONLY MOISTURE AROUND 300MB AS BUFR
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
A LARGE VOLUME AND K INDICES FALLING INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO. ALREADY UPSTREAM...IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE AND JET APPROACH...WATER VAPOR AND STANDARD IR SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW STRANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. GFS UPPER-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY...THE CANADIAN CLOUD
COVER MODEL...AND HRRR SHORT-TERM CLOUD COVER GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...LEAST CONFIDENT AND
FOR THE SHORTEST TIME TOWARD THE TRIAD AND MORE CONFIDENT AND FOR A
LONGER AMOUNT OF TIME AS ONE GOES SOUTHEAST. LATE TONIGHT...EVEN THE
MOISTURE ALOFT DRIES WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AND AS THE JET ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN.
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE NORTHWEST...AND THE WARMER MOS
GUIDANCE TOWARD KFAY...FOR LOWS OF 15 TO 20 WEST OF INTERSTATE
95...AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S RIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MIXING OVERNIGHT AS 850MB AND
925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35KT AND KEEP SOME WIND AT THE
SURFACE...ENOUGH THAT MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE MINIMUM WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
PARTICULARLY TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ...THOSE MINIMUM WIND CHILLS MAY
ONLY GET AS LOW AS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 10F DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE EXIT OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS TIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE 850MB AND 925MB WINDS OF 25 TO 35KT...BUT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY SUCH THAT THE GFS REALLY
DIMINISHES THE 925MB WINDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SATURDAY...LEAVING
THEM 5 TO 10KT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MIXING SATURDAY GFS AND NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SOME GUSTS
IN THE TEENS KNOTS WHICH SHOULD AGAIN DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON.
UNDER 850MB SUBSIDENCE AND THETA-E TROUGHING...AND K INDICES WELL
INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE FIGURES...THE AIR MASS IS DRY...AND DEW
POINTS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD GO
NEGATIVE SATURDAY. UNDER CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE THAT IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 64 AND INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF CIRRUS
ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS SOUTHWEST...BUT
MOS GUIDANCE IS CHILLY UNDER THE RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS AND
CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET...AND IS CONSIDERABLE REASONABLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT FROM SATURDAY AND RANGE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S. -BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY MAY LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED LOCATIONS MID WEEK.
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSITION A SOUTHERN STREAM
DOMINANT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY IN THE LONG TERM AND CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY LEADS TO MORE
UNCERTAINTY THAN AVERAGE...OFTEN ALONG WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AS LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVE QUICKLY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. TIMING THESE
FEATURES AND RESOLVING DETAILS IS OFTEN PROBLEMATIC AS IS
IDENTIFYING POTENTIAL PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
WITH ALL OF THE CAVEATS OF OUT THE WAY...THE FIRST DISTURBANCE TO
AFFECT THE LONG TERM WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY EVENING. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT EARLY MONDAY COMBINED
WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A COUPLE
BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT. PARTIAL
THICKNESS VALUES FROM THE GFS/NAM/AND ALL SREF MEMBERS SUGGEST AN
ALL RAIN EVENT BUT SURFACE WET BULBS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AROUND ONSET
TIME. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE THE TREND FOR
SLOWER PRECIP ARRIVAL...FAVOR AN ALL RAIN FORECAST FOR NOW BUT THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE TRIAD AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY
MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AGAIN.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES A GREAT DEAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE MIGRATING SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THAT RIDGES INTO THE PIEDMONT
OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS. THIS COLDER TREND AND STRONGER COLD AIR
DAMMING SIGNATURE LEADS TO A MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN BUT ONE THAT
COULD SUPPORT SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. WITH THE SOUTHERN SHIFT OF THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WE HAVE LOWERED POPS BELOW WPC GUIDANCE AND
SHIFTED THEM SOUTHWARD. THE TREND APPEARS TO BE FOR A LESS IMPACTFUL
SYSTEM. THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LARGELY RESULT
FROM SOME SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AN EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE INCLUDED FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING...IF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...THESE TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM AND THE WINTRY P-TYPE AREA
WOULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER
40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.
AFTER A LULL LATE WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AS SOME
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING IS IMPLIED. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY HALF OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE
PARALLEL GFS. THE SURFACE WAVE IS LIKELY TO BE WEAK AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BEFORE STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE. A PERIOD OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC WIL HAVE MODERATED
ENOUGH FOR AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40 AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND...AT LEAST INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH 0
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY...THEN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN APPEAR POSSIBLE...MVFR THE LIKELY CATEGORY IF IT OCCURS...
WITH MORE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR PRECIPITATION NEAR AND NORTHWEST
OF THE TRIAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH REGARD TO
PRECIPITATION TYPE...TEMPERATURE...AND TIMING. CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. THROUGH TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER...BECOMING NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND NORTH EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SOME GUSTINESS LIKELY INTO
THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1251 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND REMAINS AT
LEAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY MONDAY
DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM FRIDAY...
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED THROUGHOUT VIRTUALLY ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DRY AIR
MASS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE SHOULD MOVE TOWARD
THE MOUNTAINS BY 20Z OR SO. IN LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS...A PRO IS THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE BUT
A CON IS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION EFFECTS
ALOFT IN THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE. BOTH THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL AND THE LATEST HRRR WRF...
AND TO SOME EXTENT RAP HIGH-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS...
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SOME CIRRUS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A
FOCUS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT TOWARD THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN
OR SO.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO RECOVER NICELY WITH THE SUN AND HIGHS
FROM 40 TO 45 SEEM REASONABLE...PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TODAY...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST LAV GUIDANCE AND WHAT 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WOULD PORTRAY. AS THE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED...WILL
CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR SAMPSON COUNTY.
MIXING THIS MORNING HAVE SHOWN A FEW GUSTS TO AT OR JUST ABOVE 20KT.
RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH
SOME...INTO THE MID TEENS KNOTS...BY MID-AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY: REINFORCING...1041 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MONTANA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TN
VALLEY TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY SAT.
THOUGH THIS HIGH IS NOT QUITE AS COLD AND STRONG AS THE PREDECESSOR
HIGH...IT WILL STILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
CENTRAL NC. IN FACT...PROJECTED 12Z LOW LEVEL THICKNESSE VALUES OF
AROUND 1260 METERS AT GSO SUPPORTS LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TEENS
TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. THE COLD...AND A 5-10 MPH NORTHWESTERLY WIND
USHERING THAT RENEWED ARCTIC AIR INTO CENTRAL NC...WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE PIEDMONT TO 10-
15 OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY. RATHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING
THE PERIOD. THE SHORT TERM WEATHER WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS DRY
WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASING LATE AT NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ESPECIALLY INT HE EAST AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN
THE 16-22 RANGE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT FROM SATURDAY
AND RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. -BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY MAY LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED LOCATIONS MID WEEK.
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSITION A SOUTHERN STREAM
DOMINANT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY IN THE LONG TERM AND CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY LEADS TO MORE
UNCERTAINTY THAN AVERAGE...OFTEN ALONG WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AS LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVE QUICKLY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. TIMING THESE
FEATURES AND RESOLVING DETAILS IS OFTEN PROBLEMATIC AS IS
IDENTIFYING POTENTIAL PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
WITH ALL OF THE CAVEATS OF OUT THE WAY...THE FIRST DISTURBANCE TO
AFFECT THE LONG TERM WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY EVENING. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT EARLY MONDAY COMBINED
WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A COUPLE
BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT. PARTIAL
THICKNESS VALUES FROM THE GFS/NAM/AND ALL SREF MEMBERS SUGGEST AN
ALL RAIN EVENT BUT SURFACE WET BULBS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AROUND ONSET
TIME. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE THE TREND FOR
SLOWER PRECIP ARRIVAL...FAVOR AN ALL RAIN FORECAST FOR NOW BUT THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE TRIAD AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY
MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AGAIN.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES A GREAT DEAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE MIGRATING SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THAT RIDGES INTO THE PIEDMONT
OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS. THIS COLDER TREND AND STRONGER COLD AIR
DAMMING SIGNATURE LEADS TO A MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN BUT ONE THAT
COULD SUPPORT SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. WITH THE SOUTHERN SHIFT OF THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WE HAVE LOWERED POPS BELOW WPC GUIDANCE AND
SHIFTED THEM SOUTHWARD. THE TREND APPEARS TO BE FOR A LESS IMPACTFUL
SYSTEM. THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LARGELY RESULT
FROM SOME SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AN EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE INCLUDED FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING...IF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...THESE TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM AND THE WINTRY P-TYPE AREA
WOULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER
40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.
AFTER A LULL LATE WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AS SOME
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING IS IMPLIED. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY HALF OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE
PARALLEL GFS. THE SURFACE WAVE IS LIKELY TO BE WEAK AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BEFORE STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE. A PERIOD OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC WIL HAVE MODERATED
ENOUGH FOR AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40 AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND...AT LEAST INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY...THEN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN APPEAR POSSIBLE...MVFR THE LIKELY CATEGORY IF IT OCCURS...
WITH MORE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR PRECIPITATION NEAR AND NORTHWEST
OF THE TRIAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH REGARD TO
PRECIPITATION TYPE...TEMPERATURE...AND TIMING. CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. THROUGH TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER...BECOMING NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND NORTH EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SOME GUSTINESS LIKELY INTO
THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...MWS/DJF
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...DJF