Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/08/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1043 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
TODAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND A
VERY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH A
QUICK MOVING ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER
COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST SETTLING OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAY MOVE CLOSE
TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST 06Z NAM SHOWING FGEN FORCING ACROSS DELMARVA AND THIS HAS
BEEN COINCIDENTAL WITH THE 170KT JET STREAK AND THE APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE. THE BAND OF MODERATE SNOW HAS MADE IT ACROSS WEST VA
AND LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZING IN OUR CWA IN THAT AREA. HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A DECOUPLING OF THESE FORCES DURING THE LATE MORNING
ONWARD. SO FAR WE HAVE REPORTS AS HIGH AS AROUND AN INCH. GIVEN
WHAT IS ONGOING WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE, WE WILL BE UPPING AMOUNTS
ESSENTIALLY TO 2-4" ON OUR SIDE OF DELMARVA, WITH CHANCES ARE
ADJACENT PARTS OF NJ MAY END CLOSER TO THE HIGH END OF THE 1-2".
FARTHER NORTH PWATS ARE NOT AS HIGH AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE
STAIR STEP DOWN LOOK IN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN THE VISIBLE SATL
IMAGERY. BUT A SECOND SHORT WAVE HAS STILL TO MOVE THROUGH, SO
ALBEIT LIGHTER, SNOW SHOULD COULD ON FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES IN ACCUMS HERE.
TU NESDIS FOR INFORMATION.
14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS
DIVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA-ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A WEAK REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE MARKED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST. BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE FEATURES
WILL TRACK ALMOST DUE EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE MASON-DIXON LINE WHERE THE BEST AND MOST PERSISTENT LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS FGEN FORCING IS PROGGED. WE
ALSO DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST NJ.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF I-76 IN PA AND I-195 IN NJ. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE
SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY ULTIMATELY FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
MANY LOCATIONS, ADVERSE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL OCCUR WITH SNOW
COINCIDING WITH MORNING RUSH HOUR. ALSO, SNOW WILL EASILY ACCUMULATE
ON UNTREATED ROADS GIVEN TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE CLIPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS HEELS AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT. LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH IS EXPECTED
TO BE EXITING EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD BACK
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING WESTERLY WIND OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
INITIALLY LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS BUT
DID ADJUST IT DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES AFTER FACTORING THE FRESH
(ALBEIT LIGHT) SNOW COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM. THIS TROUGHING BEGINS
TO WEAKEN AS ITS BASE FLATTENS OUT A BIT TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH
PACIFIC RIDGING BREAKING DOWN ALLOWING A BETTER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO TAKE OVER.
WEDNESDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, LIKE A MAJORITY OF THE HIGHS
WE HAVE SEEN THIS SEASON THUS FAR, WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY LATER WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE CENTER
STILL REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED CAPE, AROUND 20 TO 40
J/KG, COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE
COMING OFF THE LAKES, WITH WATER TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE FREEZING,
SO SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PREVALENT DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE, THOUGH TOUGH TO RESOLVE EVEN
AT THIS JUNCTURE, FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL OR TWO TO OCCUR ALONG THE
ARCTIC FRONT. HAVE ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING, MODERATE SNOW, FOR A
FEW HOURS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE OROGRAPHY WILL HELP
ENHANCE LIFT. DO HAVE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS, WITH UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POCONOS, BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT THE
SNOW WILL/CAN OCCUR IN QUICK BURSTS SIGNIFICANTLY DROPPING VISIBILITIES. WILL
HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE HEAVIER SQUALLS IN THE HWO ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...AT THIS POINT.
BESIDES ISSUES WITH SNOW WILL BE THE COLDER AIRMASS USHERED IN
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS WE STATED ABOVE WE WILL HAVE VERY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...COULD EASILY MIX UPWARDS OF 700MB,
OR POSSIBLY HIGHER IN A LOT OF PLACES. AT LEAST 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF
WIND RESIDE AT THESE LEVELS SO THE GUSTS WILL BE RUNNING QUITE HIGH
AND GIVEN THE MIXING HEIGHT THEY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE LONGER
DURATION GUSTS...POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES FOR THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY LOOK PRETTY SOLID
AT THIS POINT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON EXPECTED, THUS FAR. 850MB
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO -20 TO -25C MAKING FOR HIGHS NOT REACHING
THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND QUITE POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
TEENS ACROSS THE METRO AREA...LOW-20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...NEXT ARCTIC FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECTING MUCH LESS FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FRONT AND WITH LESS MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SO WE`LL HAVE A
VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY
ACROSS THE NORTH BUT SHOULD BECOME DRY BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-PRESSURE TO DEVELOP INVOF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE...BUT IT/S
TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY FURTHER DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS AS OF 1530Z, THE HEAVIEST SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT IS MOVING OFF THE COAST, WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING
AVIATION CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THRU MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TODAY/THIS EVE, BEFORE INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KT LATE
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN
-SNSH...PARTICULARLY AT ABE AND RDG. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST 30
TO 35 KNOTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND SNSH. SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (AOB 15 KT) TODAY. REDUCED VSBYS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING IN SNOW.
W-NW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 20 KT. SCA CONDITIONS (BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS) MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BUT A HEADLINE WAS NOT
ISSUED TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH THE GALE WARNING ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GALES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GALE FORCE
WINDS COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
WATERS COULD LEAD TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
THU NIGHT THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT W/THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE...
PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO BLOWOUT
TIDES LATE WED INTO THU. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TIDAL DEPARTURES
COULD APPROACH TWO FEET...PARTICULARLY IN DELAWARE BAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 8TH. MOST APPEAR OUT OF REACH.
ALLENTOWN..............-3F IN 1942
ATLANTIC CITY...........2F IN 1981
GEORGETOWN..............10F IN 2014 AND 1970
MOUNT POCONO...........-13F IN 1950
PHILADELPHIA............2F IN 1970
READING.................2F IN 1942
TRENTON................-12F IN 1866
WILMINGTON..............0F IN 1970
LOWEST TEMPERATURES LAST JANUARY (2014)
ALLENTOWN..............-4F ON THE 4TH
ATLANTIC CITY..........-3F ON THE 30TH AND 4TH
GEORGETOWN.............-5F ON THE 30TH
MOUNT POCONO...........-9F ON THE 22ND AND 3RD
PHILADELPHIA............4F ON THE 7TH AND 22ND
READING.................0F ON THE 7TH
TRENTON................-1F ON THE 4TH
WILMINGTON..............3F ON THE 30TH, 22ND AND 7TH.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ060-061-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN/MIKETTA
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
TODAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND A
VERY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH A
QUICK MOVING ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER
COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST SETTLING OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAY MOVE CLOSE
TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST 06Z NAM SHOWING FGEN FORCING ACROSS DELMARVA AND THIS HAS
BEEN COINCIDENTAL WITH THE 170KT JET STREAK AND THE APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE. THE BAND OF MODERATE SNOW HAS MADE IT ACROSS WEST VA
AND LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZING IN OUR CWA IN THAT AREA. HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A DECOUPLING OF THESE FORCES DURING THE LATE MORNING
ONWARD. SO FAR WE HAVE REPORTS AS HIGH AS AROUND AN INCH. GIVEN
WHAT IS ONGOING WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE, WE WILL BE UPPING AMOUNTS
ESSENTIALLY TO 2-4" ON OUR SIDE OF DELMARVA, WITH CHANCES ARE
ADJACENT PARTS OF NJ MAY END CLOSER TO THE HIGH END OF THE 1-2".
FARTHER NORTH PWATS ARE NOT AS HIGH AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE
STAIR STEP DOWN LOOK IN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN THE VISIBLE SATL
IMAGERY. BUT A SECOND SHORT WAVE HAS STILL TO MOVE THROUGH, SO
ALBEIT LIGHTER, SNOW SHOULD COULD ON FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES IN ACCUMS HERE.
TU NESDIS FOR INFORMATION.
14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS
DIVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA-ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A WEAK REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE MARKED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST. BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE FEATURES
WILL TRACK ALMOST DUE EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE MASON-DIXON LINE WHERE THE BEST AND MOST PERSISTENT LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS FGEN FORCING IS PROGGED. WE
ALSO DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST NJ.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF I-76 IN PA AND I-195 IN NJ. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE
SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY ULTIMATELY FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
MANY LOCATIONS, ADVERSE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL OCCUR WITH SNOW
COINCIDING WITH MORNING RUSH HOUR. ALSO, SNOW WILL EASILY ACCUMULATE
ON UNTREATED ROADS GIVEN TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE CLIPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS HEELS AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT. LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH IS EXPECTED
TO BE EXITING EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD BACK
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING WESTERLY WIND OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
INITIALLY LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS BUT
DID ADJUST IT DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES AFTER FACTORING THE FRESH
(ALBEIT LIGHT) SNOW COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM. THIS TROUGHING BEGINS
TO WEAKEN AS ITS BASE FLATTENS OUT A BIT TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH
PACIFIC RIDGING BREAKING DOWN ALLOWING A BETTER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO TAKE OVER.
WEDNESDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, LIKE A MAJORITY OF THE HIGHS
WE HAVE SEEN THIS SEASON THUS FAR, WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY LATER WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE CENTER
STILL REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED CAPE, AROUND 20 TO 40
J/KG, COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE
COMING OFF THE LAKES, WITH WATER TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE FREEZING,
SO SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PREVALENT DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE, THOUGH TOUGH TO RESOLVE EVEN
AT THIS JUNCTURE, FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL OR TWO TO OCCUR ALONG THE
ARCTIC FRONT. HAVE ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING, MODERATE SNOW, FOR A
FEW HOURS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE OROGRAPHY WILL HELP
ENHANCE LIFT. DO HAVE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS, WITH UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POCONOS, BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT THE
SNOW WILL/CAN OCCUR IN QUICK BURSTS SIGNIFICANTLY DROPPING VISIBILITIES. WILL
HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE HEAVIER SQUALLS IN THE HWO ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...AT THIS POINT.
BESIDES ISSUES WITH SNOW WILL BE THE COLDER AIRMASS USHERED IN
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS WE STATED ABOVE WE WILL HAVE VERY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...COULD EASILY MIX UPWARDS OF 700MB,
OR POSSIBLY HIGHER IN A LOT OF PLACES. AT LEAST 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF
WIND RESIDE AT THESE LEVELS SO THE GUSTS WILL BE RUNNING QUITE HIGH
AND GIVEN THE MIXING HEIGHT THEY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE LONGER
DURATION GUSTS...POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES FOR THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY LOOK PRETTY SOLID
AT THIS POINT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON EXPECTED, THUS FAR. 850MB
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO -20 TO -25C MAKING FOR HIGHS NOT REACHING
THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND QUITE POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
TEENS ACROSS THE METRO AREA...LOW-20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...NEXT ARCTIC FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECTING MUCH LESS FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FRONT AND WITH LESS MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SO WE`LL HAVE A
VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY
ACROSS THE NORTH BUT SHOULD BECOME DRY BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-PRESSURE TO DEVELOP INVOF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE...BUT IT/S
TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY FURTHER DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE OVERNIGHT
WILL EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE EARLY FOR THE
PHL AREA TERMINALS AND MID MORNING FOR ABE/TTN. VSBYS WILL
DETERIORATE QUICKLY AFTER ONSET IN STEADY SNOW. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR A PERIOD OF BELOW VSBYS UNDER ONE-MILE THIS MORNING. CIGS MOST
LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AROUND OR JUST AFTER NOON
BUT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THRU MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY/THIS EVE, BEFORE INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KT LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN
-SNSH...PARTICULARLY AT ABE AND RDG. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST 30
TO 35 KNOTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND SNSH. SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (AOB 15 KT) TODAY. REDUCED VSBYS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING IN SNOW.
W-NW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 20 KT. SCA CONDITIONS (BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS) MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BUT A HEADLINE WAS NOT
ISSUED TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH THE GALE WARNING ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GALES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GALE FORCE
WINDS COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
WATERS COULD LEAD TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
THU NIGHT THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT W/THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE...
PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO BLOWOUT
TIDES LATE WED INTO THU. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TIDAL DEPARTURES
COULD APPROACH TWO FEET...PARTICULARLY IN DELAWARE BAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 8TH. MOST APPEAR OUT OF REACH.
ALLENTOWN..............-3F IN 1942
ATLANTIC CITY...........2F IN 1981
GEORGETOWN..............10F IN 2014 AND 1970
MOUNT POCONO...........-13F IN 1950
PHILADELPHIA............2F IN 1970
READING.................2F IN 1942
TRENTON................-12F IN 1866
WILMINGTON..............0F IN 1970
LOWEST TEMPERATURES LAST JANUARY (2014)
ALLENTOWN..............-4F ON THE 4TH
ATLANTIC CITY..........-3F ON THE 30TH AND 4TH
GEORGETOWN.............-5F ON THE 30TH
MOUNT POCONO...........-9F ON THE 22ND AND 3RD
PHILADELPHIA............4F ON THE 7TH AND 22ND
READING.................0F ON THE 7TH
TRENTON................-1F ON THE 4TH
WILMINGTON..............3F ON THE 30TH, 22ND AND 7TH.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ060-061-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
322 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
...MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE HAS
ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO BECOME NEAR CALM OVER INLAND AREAS AND WITH
MAINLY SCATTERED THIN CIRRUS ALOFT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 35-40 DEG RANGE WITH SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS INLD SE GA AND THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO COAST AND FURTHER SOUTH
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S. BASICALLY SEASONABLY COOL READINGS FOR
EARLY JANUARY. LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE TRYING TO SHOW SOME PATCHY FOG
IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FROST ACROSS INLD SE GA AROUND SUNRISE WITH
VSBYS IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE...WILL MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN FORECAST PACKAGE BUT THIS IS USUALLY NOT THE PATTERN TO
GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY DENSE FOG.
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION AND SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS NE FL AND MID/UPPER 60S
ACROSS SE GA.
TONIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND SHOULD BE
PUSHING INTO SOUTH GEORGIA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED AND WITH WINDS BECOMING NEAR CALM AFTER SUNSET EXPECT A
RAPID FALL IN TEMPS TO BECOME TEMPERED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS GRADIENT
STARTS TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY AS FRONT APPROACHES WITH W/NW WINDS
COMING UP TO AROUND 5 MPH AT LEAST AND EVENT WITH LOW TEMPS EXPECTED
IN THE 30S OVER INLAND AREAS...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FROST FORMATION AS BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MIXED
TOWARDS MORNING. CLOSER TO THE COAST STILL EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
.SHORT TERM /WED-THU/...
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH (1050+MB) WILL RAPIDLY DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON WEDNESDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES WILL PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS WHILE
LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER CAN
EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH LATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
THE COLD AIR AND WIND COMBINATION WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10
DEGREES ACROSS INLAND SE GEORGIA. WIND CHILLS WILL BE HELD IN THE
20S ALONG THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA DUE TO WINDS QUICKLY VEERING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA
COAST. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND HARD FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH EVEN WIND ADVISORIES EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES.
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 ACROSS SE GA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH. MAX TEMPS ACROSS NE FL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE
LOW 50S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY AS PRESSURE RISES COME TO AN END. THIS AIR MASS
WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS ACTUALLY FALLING BELOW ZERO
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OFFSHORE COULD PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLY
EVEN A SLEET PELLET OVER OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...BUT WE
WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS
DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.
NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A RADIATIONAL
COOLING FREEZE ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NE FL
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER HARD FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF SE GA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S AT
THE BEACHES BUT THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND NO WIND OR
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.
.LONG TERM /FRI-MON/...
THIS COLD AIR OUTBREAK WILL BE ONE OF RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION
WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES WELL NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. MAX TEMPS THOUGH
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO THE THE UPPER 50S WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS INCREASING FROM
THE WEST.
A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SE GA FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WE WILL CLIMB A
LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS NE FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND WE WILL SHOW
GENERALLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WITH HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING. LOW CHANCES FOR MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG AT KVQQ.
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS TONIGHT. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED IN THE NEAR-TERM. ALTHOUGH INCREASE TO STRONG
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/GALE CONDS STILL EXPECTED IN THE WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WED IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 63 35 56 23 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 65 42 59 28 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 68 38 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 69 42 63 35 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 71 38 62 27 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 73 38 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
HESS/SHULER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
902 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...
257 PM CST
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. THIS
IS FOLLOWED BY A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS AROUND ANOTHER COLD
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEFORE GETTING TO THE SNOW AND COLD...I WANTED TO MAKE A NOTE THAT
PARTNERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING ICE JAMS ON SEVERAL AREA RIVERS. WHILE
WE ARE NOT AWARE OF IMMINENT FLOODING PROBLEMS...CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT WHICH CAN RESULT IN RAPIDLY
FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
EARLIER IN THE SHIFT THE WIND CHILL WARNING WAS CONVERTED TO A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY.TEMPERATURES RECOVERED A BIT TODAY AND MOST LOCATIONS
ARE ABOVE ZERO. IN SPITE OF THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR BEING OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO LEVELS COLDER THAN LAST
NIGHT..AND THUS WIND CHILL READINGS WILL STILL BE VERY COLD. OUR
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW -30 FOR A LONG
PERIOD OF TIME...THE CURRENT WARNING CRITERIA...IS LOW...BUT HIGH
FOR -25 TO -30 WIND CHILLS. THEREFORE...WHILE COLDER WIND CHILLS
ARE POSSIBLE...AN ADVISORY SEEMS TO BETTER SERVE THE SITUATION.
DO NOT BE FOOLED...IT WILL STILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN TO
PROTECT YOURSELF OUTDOORS. HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN PORTER COUNTY
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO ABOUT AN
INCH OF SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED. THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW
THIS NEW SNOW AROUND AS WELL IN THESE AREAS...WITH PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW ELSEWHERE. 850-925 MB WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO MORE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AND THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SHIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF PORTER
COUNTY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE THE REGION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE ARE REALLY TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH...ONE WEAKER WAVE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND A STRONGER
WAVE WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THE FIRST WAVE ROLLS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER WAVE IN THE EVENING.
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
NORTH OF THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE BETTER SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
THIS ALSO WHERE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS...WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE
MORE FAVORED AREA FOR CLIPPER SNOWS. AHEAD OF THE MODEST SURFACE
LOW AND BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY...INITIALLY DRY AIR WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION...BUT MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. LOOKING ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH IN THE METRO AREA WITH BEST
CHANCES NORTH...WITH NEAR TWO INCHES POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
WISCONSIN BORDER IN LAKE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT OF AROUND 0.1 INCHES OF QPF NORTH...TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
FAR SOUTH. WHILE IT WILL BE A DRY SNOW...OMEGA IS BROAD NOT ALL
DENDRITIC GROWTH SNOW AS THERE ARE SOME WARMER LAYERS IN THE
COLUMN IN FROM 5K-10K FT. THEREFORE THINKING OF RATIOS OF ABOUT
13-15:1. WHILE THIS DOES NOT SOUND LIKE A BIG DEAL...THE SNOW WILL
FALL DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE. AND ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS WILL BE BLOWING AROUND WHICH WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY REDUCE SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT.
WILL HANDLE THIS WITH AN SPS.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
257 PM CST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THURSDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND
IT CREATING BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS AS ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE PLAINS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK TODAY`S SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE. BUT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH ANOTHER DUMP OF
BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS IS NOT AS COLD OF AIR AS WE ARE SEEING TODAY BUT PRETTY
CLOSE. WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT DROP TO -15 TO -20. BREEZY WEST
WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MAYBE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NOT RECOVERING A TON FROM
THESE VALUES. THE RIDGE THEN SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO DIP BACK
INTO THE -20 TO -25 RANGE.
BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL OVER THE MIDWEST
AS THE UPPER JET AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SHIFT THE COLD
CORE BACK NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTRY AND INTO CANADA.
WINDS EASE AND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY...BUMPING HIGHS SATURDAY INTO THE
TEENS SATURDAY AND EVEN THE TWENTIES ON SUNDAY...WITH A 30 POSSIBLE
FAR SOUTH. THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES TOWARDS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. WITH A WEAK WAVE TRANSLATING NORTH AND
EASTWARD IN A BROAD WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AT
THIS TIME WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS DEPENDS
ON THE STRENGTH OF A BUILDING SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AS TO
HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW...BUT THERE COULD BE A MIX FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT THE GFS SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE
ECMWF/GEM...SO HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING SETS UP BEYOND THIS TIME WITH THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW MIDWEEK.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* SOUTHWEST (200-230 DEG) WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 30 KT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT WEST THURSDAY
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT.
* PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY FROM MIDDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY/MID THURSDAY EVENING. MVFR LIKELY WITH
IFR VSBY POSSIBLE DURING PEAK SNOW LATE AFTN/EVE. SNOW
DIMINISHES TO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE EVENING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...PROVIDING MAINLY CLEAR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT...COMBINED WITH
A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD
OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW TO THE AREA FROM
EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-LATE THURSDAY EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY AS SNOW DEVELOPS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR VSBY POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
LOW-LEVELS BECOME SATURATED AND THE SECOND AND STRONGER
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH TO FLURRIES/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY
MID-LATE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG DRYING NOTED IN MID-
UPPER LEVELS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BACK MORE WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS
THE HIGH PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING...STRENGTHENING AND BECOMING GUSTY
AGAIN DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TIGHTENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 KT AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT
ARE LIKELY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING THESE MAGNITUDES
AFTER SHIFTING WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF BOTH FALLING AND
FALLEN SNOW DURING THE PERIOD.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH IN OVERALL WIND TRENDS...MEDIUM-HIGH WITH SPEED/GUST
DETAILS THURSDAY AFTN/EVE.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN SNOW TIMING...MEDIUM IN DETAILS OF CIG/VSBY
DEGRADATION TRENDS THURS AFTN/EVE.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND
MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
306 PM CST
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHEN GALES EASE TO POSSIBLY JUST BELOW GALE FORCE
THURSDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT DURATION
OF ANY POTENTIAL SUB-GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AND OPTED TO
RUN GALE WARNING THROUGH THE DURATION OF THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIGHTENING UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON THURSDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL
NOON THURSDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...11 AM
THURSDAY TO 9 PM FRIDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878...11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ868...11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM
FRIDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-
LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-
LMZ868...11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 11 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
835 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
Large area of Arctic high pressure centered over southwest
Missouri early this evening is expected to continue to drift to
our south overnight. This will bring winds around to the southwest
which should put a stop to the free-falling temps we have seen
this evening. In addition, the HRRR moisture profiles suggest an
increase in high level clouds from the northwest after midnight as
our next shortwave and attendant cold front approach our area for
late tomorrow. The surface high is far enough to our southwest to
allow the tighter pressure gradient to be across the north
overnight. So even though we will see the temperature decline slow
down later tonight, a wind of 5 to 10 mph with overnight lows of
10 to 15 below will create wind chills of 20 to 30 below zero
across the far north, with 15 to 25 below zero common elsewhere.
Have made some tweaks to the overnight lows across the north where
the early evening temperature decline has brought a couple of
sites within a few degrees of their expected overnight lows.
Otherwise, no other changes were required. Should have an updated
ZFP out by 845 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
Arctic high pressure continues to slide southeast into Missouri...
with cold temperatures remaining over the CWA this afternoon into
this evening. Northwest winds will stay breezy through the remainder
of the afternoon...decreasing around sunset. As the high pushes
southeastward...temperatures will bottom out over the northwest
counties slightly after midnight and will then begin to slowly rise
as winds shift to the southwest and a slightly warmer air mass
enters western portions of Illinois. Meanwhile...the colder air will
linger over northeastern portions of Illinois through the mid
morning. Decided to lean a little more towards temperatures not
going too cold overnight given the warmer 850mb temperatures moving
into the area. However...with snow cover and mostly clear skies
temperatures will still not have a problem dropping off overnight.
Wind chills have been updated for the overnight period due to
warming the minimum temperatures slightly. The warning and advisory
are still in place...since wind chills will range from around -15 to
-30. Some counties in the sw CWA were downgraded from a Warning to
an Advisory. Otherwise...temperatures slowly warming up will allow
the Warning and Advisory to expire in the tomorrow period.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
Next wave rotating through eastern North America trough is expected
to approach Illinois on Thursday which should allow southwest flow
to set up with resultant warm advection. By 00z Thursday Evening 850
mb temps are progged to warm 10-20C in 24 hours. However, with snow
cover over northern forecast area and increasing clouds highs should
remain below normal.
Next surge of cold air should blast in Thursday Night and Friday
behind the wave. Air behind this wave not quite as cold as the
current airmass, but some readings below zero Friday Morning in snow
covered areas seems like a good bet and with winds 10-20 mph progged
may have to consider another wind chill advisory across the north
once we make it through this ongoing cold event. Even A few flurries
may be possible with wave passage, but moisture is extremely limited
so do not expect any measurable snowfall.
Heights begin to build late Friday as flow transitions to more
zonal, temps should respond with a warming trend reaching near
seasonal normals by Sunday. Latest (12z) GFS has shifted more in
line with ECMWF in forecasting a southern stream wave producing
precip as far north as the forecast area Sunday Night and early
Monday. Earlier iterations of GFS kept moisture more limited with
this system and produced precip only as far northwest as the Ohio
River. Will trend a bit upward with PoPs with this system.
As for precip type, GFS (12z) forecasted thermal profile suggests an
area of mixed/freezing rain will be possible. For now will
broadbrush given the spread in GEFS solutions and wait for event to
become better delineated before being more specific. Colder air
should return following the system for midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
VFR conditions are expected thru this forecast period with MVFR
cigs approaching from the northwest at or just after 00z Friday.
High pressure will shift south of the area tonight bringing another
very cold night to the forecast area. Any residual MVFR cig should
dissipate after 00z with a mostly clear sky expected thru 09z before
a band of cirrus streaks southeast into the area for the morning
hours. Surface winds will diminish quickly this evening and then back
into the southwest after midnight. Look for speeds to average from
5 to 10 kts after 00z. Southwest to south winds will increase in
speed again tomorrow morning as the high shifts further away and
low pressure tracks to our north during the afternoon. Wind speeds
tomorrow will increase to between 15 and 25 kts by late morning
with a few gusts up to around 30 kts possible thru the afternoon.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until Noon CST Thursday FOR ILZ036-040>042-
047>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
WIND CHILL WARNING until Noon CST Thursday FOR ILZ027>031-037-
038-043>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...ALW
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1156 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...
302 PM CST
TONIGHT...
SYNOPTIC/FORCING DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW MOVING ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER. SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
IOWA WITH A WARM ADVECTION RIBBON EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MANY SITES ACROSS IOWA ARE REPORTING 1/4 TO 1/2SM
VSBY WITH STRONG REFLECTIVITY ON THE RADAR MOSAIC. GROUND REPORTS
THUS FAR INDICATE INCH PER HOURS AMOUNTS WITH NEAR 0.10 INCH LIQUID
LEADING TO 10-11:1 SNOW RATIOS. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS
SHOW THAT THE BEST FGEN FORCING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
TO HALF OF THE ARA THIS EVENING CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT
THAT IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. HEAVIEST LIQUID SHOULD
FALL JUST NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WHICH WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP SNOW GROWTH ZONE BUT
ALIGNMENT OF BEST ASCENT VARIES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERN AREAS
ENTRENCHED IN THE DEEPER COLD AIR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE FORCING
ABOVE THE BEST SNOW GROWTH ZONE WHILE AREAS SOUTH SEE A BETTER
ALIGNMENT. THIS MAY BE WHAT IS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WHERE
LOWER RATIOS HAVE BEEN REPORTED THUS FAR /SMALLER FLAKE SIZE AND
LESS FLUFF TO ACCUMULATION/.
ACCUMULATION/TIMING DISCUSSION...WITH SNOW QUICKLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD HAVE BUMPED UP POPS AFTER 22Z IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
SOUTHWEST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK RAMP UP IN INTENSITY BY
AROUND 00Z WITH A 4-5 HOUR WINDOW OF STRONG FORCING BEFORE THINGS
TAPER AROUND AND AFTER 06Z. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW
FOR SNOW BEFORE THINGS QUICKLY EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE EXPECTATION OF 15-18:1 RATIOS FOR NOW. BEST
FORCING...ALIGNMENT OF FORCING WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...AND
DURATION OF FORCING CONTINUE TO BE ALIGNED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA
WITH THESE ELEMENTS LESS ALIGNED TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE
TIGHTENED UP THE ACCUMULATION GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA SOMEWHAT TO
SHOW A LITTLE BIT LESS IN FAR NORTHEAST IL. AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A MENDOTA TO SOUTH CHICAGO METRO TO RENSSELAER LOOK TO
SEE SNOW FALL ACCUMULATION RATES OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR LEADING
TO A BROAD AREA OF 3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS WITH AREAS ALONG A AND SOUTH
OF A STREATOR TO WATSEKA TO FOWLER LINE SEEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
EVEN 5 TO 7 INCHES.
HEADLINE AND IMPACTS DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA GIVEN EXPECTED AMOUNTS.
HAVE MADE AN EARLY UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE FAR
SOUTH GIVEN THE EXPECTED BETTER BANDING AND BETTER ALIGNMENT OF
FORCING ETC. DISCUSSED ABOVE. SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ACCUMULATION RATE
WILL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH RATES AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR AND
POSSIBLY TOWARDS 1.5 IN/HR IN THE FAR SOUTH MAKING SNOW REMOVAL
DIFFICULT...NOT TO MENTION LIMITING VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES. DESPITE LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL
EXPECT A DECENT ACCUMULATION RATE LEADING TO TRAVEL HAZARDS.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
325 PM CST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT THE SNOW TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEN QUICKLY TO THE
WEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LAKE SNOW SHOWERS COULD ORGANIZE
ENOUGH TO IMPACT PORTER COUNTY FOR A VERY SHORT TIME BEFORE DAYBREAK
BUT THEY WOULD QUICKLY END. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT A REINFORCING HIGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL
QUICKLY MERGE WITH IT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME...A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS.
ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY EVENING. IT
WILL BE QUITE SHEARED OUT BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE
INCREASINGLY COLD AIR TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD AIR. WITH THE AREA BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE BUILDING HIGH TO THE WEST BREEZY WETS
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING SOUTHWEST. THE
INITIAL ISSUE WILL BE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VSBY LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL SO WILL NEED TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS LATER TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL FALL TO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH LITTLE RECOVERY WEDNESDAY...THEN FALL TO -5 TO -15 OR SO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED WIND CHILL HEADLINES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS WILL
HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW DUE TO THE ARRIVING SNOW EVENT. MOST AREAS
OF ILLINOIS LOOK TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA AND SOUTHERN AREAS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA MAY BE IN HIGH END ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERALL
EXPECT WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO AROUND -35 DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS THURSDAY
ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM FORM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MODEST WARMING...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE MODERATION OF TEMPS TO
THE TEENS. THE PASSING TROUGH MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER THURSDAY BUT WILL NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE
THIS. THINGS COOL SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY BUT THE BIG TROUGH LOOKS TO
SHIFT EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
RESULTING IN A MODERATION OF TEMPS. EMBEDDED WAVES MAY BRING SOME
CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS WELL.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SNOW TAPERING OVER NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH VSBY IMPROVING.
* POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
* INCREASINGLY GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TONIGHT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH SUBSIDENCE NOTED ACROSS IOWA AND
MINNESOTA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY AND HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW STARTING TO PUSH EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
VISIBILITY IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1-2SM AND
EXPECT THIS TO BE THE PREVAILING VIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
BY AROUND 08Z SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO A FEW FLURRIES WITH SKIES
STARTING TO SCATTER/CLEAR BY EARLY TO MID MORNING TUESDAY. MAV/LAV
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT VSBY TANKING LATE TONIGHT AND IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS DUE TO FOG. A LOOK AT GFS SOUNDINGS THOUGH SHOW DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS STAYING UP SO NOT PUTTING MUCH STOCK IN THIS AT
THE MOMENT...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CLOUD COVER TO
SEE IF WE CLEAR OUT EARLIER THEN EXPECTED AND START TO RADIATE
MORE EFFICIENTLY.
CALM/LIGHT WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS EARLY GRADUALLY BACKING TO WEST BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 KT BY THE EVENING HOURS.
AT SOME POINT WOULD EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO BECOME AN
ISSUE...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT IN HOW THIS WOULD IMPACT VSBY AT THIS
TIME...AND ANY RESTRICTIONS MAY REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW END TIME.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN VSBY
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEDNESDAY...BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE. STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
* THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
319 PM CST
THE ROGER BLOUGH WHICH HAS BEEN COMING DOWN THE WISCONSIN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND IS CROSSING THE SOUTH END HAS BEEN REPORTING WAVES
AROUND 5 FT THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WAVES SHOULD BE SUBSIDING
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF
THE LAKE AND IS FOLLOWED BY A WEAK LOW...ALLOWING WINDS TO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM EARLIER GALES. WAVES BUILD AGAIN
TOMORROW AS WEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
HIGH. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE GROWTH OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSES INTO THE MIDWEST AND WINDS
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING AT
LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG
NORTHWEST GUSTS.
AFTER THE GALE AND FREEZING SPRAY EVENT TOWARD MIDWEEK...THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGS CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STRONG WINDS AND
HIGH WAVES ON THE LAKE...THOUGH THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS COLD.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011 UNTIL 6 AM
TUESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ019 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM TUESDAY TO
3 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1149 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
Fast moving clipper system pushing through central Illinois this
evening bringing widespread snow to the area, with reports so far
ranging to around 3 inches in a corridor from near Galesburg to
Bloomington. This corridor will remain the prime location for
additional accumulations which should total in excess of 6 inches
by the time the main accumulations with this storm end around
midnight. Totals around an inch or two are still expected as far
south as Springfield to Mattoon. Very cold temperatures in the
teens and even some single digits accompany the snow, so it should
be quite light and easily produce minor blowing and drifting
despite the relatively modest winds of around 10 mph accompanying
this storm. Current forecasts appear in good shape with the
current storm trends and no significant updates have been
necessary so far.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
The 12z models continue to show a short duration, high-intensity
snow event this evening. Light snow has already developed across
our SW counties, which the HRRR shows will expand northward by 6
pm and intensify this evening. The surface low track is progged to
go across IL on a line from Pittsfield to Effingham, which
generally fits our current snowfall forecast coverage. One
additional concern is trying to pinpoint the location of the
traditional 60-80 mile wide band of heaviest snowfall. At this
point, it looks like it will extend along and just north of the
I-74 corridor. Satellite and radar images are confirming the
development of a robust frontogenetical circulation upstream
across NE SD, SW MN, and Iowa. Model analysis shows that to be in
the 850-700 mb layer. The strongest axis of this F-gen circ is
projected to advance across our northern counties this evening.
Bufkit sounding analysis for sites along the I-74 corridor
continues to indicate the co- location of the max omega, 80+% RH,
and dendritic growth zone for several hours this evening. Those
conditions will translate to the production of large, fluffy
snowflakes. Snowfall rates in this axis will likely climb between
1-1.5" per hour. Additional small- scale bands of heavier snow
could develop in areas farther south and north of the primary
band, so we kept the snow totals on the higher side of advisory
all the way through Lincoln to Mattoon, where a range of 2-5" is
expected. A sharp southern edge remains indicated by most of the
model suite, with locations south of Springfield and Mattoon
likely seeing a dusting to 1 inch.
In addition, after coordination with DVN, LOT, and IND, we decided to
upgrade the I-74 corridor counties from Advisory to Warning due to
the potential for more widespread 6-7" snowfall totals.
The southeast winds this evening will not be much stronger that 10
mph, but the fluffy snow may be light enough for some minor drifting
along roadways.
Snowfall will rapidly diminish from west to east late this evening
and after midnight, as the clipper races into southern Indiana/
Kentucky and weakens. Additional snow accums after midnight will be
light, with the best chances of more than a half inch mainly east of
Champaign to Paris. Most areas will just see some lingering flurries
for a few hours after midnight.
Low temps tonight will drop into the 5-10 range north, with around
20 from Flora to Lawrenceville.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
The bitterly cold airmass will dominate the remainder of the
forecast. Models are still on track with the intense cold that will
follow tonight`s clipper.
Tuesday will see skies begin to clear out from west to east during
the afternoon, and W-NW winds increase. Blowing and drifting
snow may develop as the fluffy snow gets pushed around, causing
travel problems on north-south roads.
On Wednesday, an unusually strong surface high, on the order of 1058
mb, will build southeast through the Dakotas, before settling into
the Ohio Valley by early Thursday. The strong pressure contrast will
result in northwest winds of 15-25 mph Tuesday night and Wednesday,
with some gusts to over 30 mph. Lobe of -24C air at 850 mb will
pivot through the Midwest on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday likely to
remain below zero across the northern CWA, with lows Wednesday night
10-15 below zero north of I-74. Wind chill warnings and advisories
will be needed for late Tuesday night into Thursday morning, as most
of the forecast area sees wind chills 15-25 below with lower than
-25 across the north. Have decided to hold off on adding wind chill
headlines to the mix, due to the winter storm expected tonight
across much of the same area.
The next clipper system is projected to remain across southern
Canada on Thursday, dragging a cold front across northern IL
Thursday night. At this point, we are keeping snow out of the
forecast for Thur night. However, as the system becomes better
defined in a couple days, we may need to add a mention of light snow
for at least our northern counties.
Behind that cold front we will see a reinforcing push of cold air,
but not as cold as the mid-week airmass. We still expect very cold
conditions as wind chills remain below zero on Friday morning and
especially Saturday morning when -10F wind chills develop. For the
weekend, we are still seeing phasing differences in the northern and
southern jet branches. A couple of shortwaves could progress across
IL during the weekend, but timing remains a question. There would be
a period of light snow with any weak disturbances that move across
the area.
Some relief from the cold is projected for next Monday, as highs
climb into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
Areas -sn with cigs ranging from LIFR-MVFR north of KSPI-KMTO
with VFR conditions to the south. Conditions slowly improving
overnight with VFR expected throughout central IL by 15Z. Winds
backing to W-NW by 15Z...increasing and becoming gusty by late
afternoon. Steady winds WNW 12-15 kts expected after 00Z
Wednesday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Tuesday FOR ILZ027>031-037-
038-045-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Tuesday FOR ILZ036-
041>044-053>057.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...HJS/Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
136 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW CONTINUING FROM THE THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN PACE ACROSS OUR
CWA ON EASTERN EXTENT OF LEE TROUGH CENTERED OVER COLORADO.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO CWA TONIGHT.
REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES/TYPES...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED
TO ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT. BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT IS
ADVERTISED IN THE WEST WHERE MODEL QPF IS SHOWING BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL...SO I RAISED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN COLORADO COUNTIES
09-12Z PERIOD. WHILE SATURATION DOES OCCUR BELOW 700MB...MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS WEAK AND THOUGHTS ARE ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. PRECIP TYPE IS ANOTHER CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
BEGINS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND SURFACE FRONT THIS EVENING...YET TEMP
PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCOOLED LIQUID. SATURATION AT TEMPS BELOW -8C
DOESNT OCCUR OVER OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 09Z. I COULD SEE VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIP...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...POSSIBLY SLEET (SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER IS AT LEAST 2500 FT DEEP). SINCE PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT I AM NOT THINKING THIS WOULD AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT I CANT RULE OUT SOME SLICK SPOTS
DEVELOPING DUE TO A LIGHT GLAZE. REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...I CANT
SEE OUR CWA RECEIVING MUCH MORE THAN ONE INCH AND THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE FAR WEST. SNOW MAY LINGER IN EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD
COMPLETELY TAPPER OFF BY THE AROUND MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER BEST PRESSURE RISES QUICKLY TRANSITION SOUTH.
BY TIME PRECIP IS OCCURRING I DO NOT THINK WE WOULD SEE STRONG
ENOUGH GUSTS TO CREATE A BLOWING SNOW THREAT. MAYBE MINOR DRIFTING
SNOW DUE TO WINDS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE (MAINLY IN EASTERN
COLORADO).
REGARDING TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS...VERY COLD AIR MASS MOVES BACK
OVER THE CWA AFTER 06Z...AND HOW LOW TEMPS GET WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY LIMITED RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED
MIXING DUE TO POSSIBLE PRECIP/WIND. I STILL EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MORNING TEMPS AROUND ZERO OR COLDER IN OUR NE CWA (MCCOOK/NORTON).
I THINK IT IS MORE LIKELY WE SEE A BIGGER DROP OFF IN WINDS
SIMILAR TO NAM SURFACE WINDS...AS SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WHILE WIND CHILLS MAY BE AROUND -15F...BUT I AM NOT CONFIDENT
THIS WOULD BE WIDESPREAD OR PERSISTENT.
WITH ALL THIS SAID...NO ADVISORY (WINTER WEATHER OR WIND CHILL)
WILL BE ISSUED DURING THIS UPDATE...BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FREEZING PRECIP COVERAGE AND WIND CHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS. WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRIEFLY BENEFIT FROM A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MID
AFTERNOON BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER FORCING
WILL BE QUITE WEAK...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 INCLUDING
NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN
-6C AND -10C THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND NOT REACH -12C UNTIL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO EXPECT A GENERAL TRANSITION FROM FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL MIXES OF ALL 3 POSSIBLE. EVEN THOUGH QPF
WILL BE VERY LIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITH THE
WINTRY MIX EXPECTED.
BEYOND FRIDAY...THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY INTO EASTERN
CANADA. NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE WEEKEND THEN TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TO NONE IN THIS
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL VERY SLOWLY MODERATE BUT REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT AND
POTENTIAL SNOW AT BOTH TERMINALS. BETTER SNOW CHANCES WILL BE AT
KGLD...EVEN THEN CONFIDENCE STILL WASNT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION
DURING THIS UPDATE. BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT WILL LIKELY BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. IT DOES LOOK LIKE MVFR...IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. BETTER IFR CHANCES IN THE WEST. I AM CONCERN
ABOUT POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN SO NO MENTION DURING THIS TAF ISSUANCE. IF WINTRY PRECIP
WERE TO DEVELOP I WOULD EXPECT VIS TO DROP AT LEAST INTO THE 1-3SM
RANGE. ALL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 12Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS BASED ON TIMING OF BETTER COVERAGE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
134 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW CONTINUING FROM THE THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN PACE ACROSS OUR
CWA ON EASTERN EXTENT OF LEE TROUGH CENTERED OVER COLORADO.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO CWA TONIGHT.
REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES/TYPES...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED
TO ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT. BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT IS
ADVERTISED IN THE WEST WHERE MODEL QPF IS SHOWING BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL...SO I RAISED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN COLORADO COUNTIES
09-12Z PERIOD. WHILE SATURATION DOES OCCUR BELOW 700MB...MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS WEAK AND THOUGHTS ARE ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. PRECIP TYPE IS ANOTHER CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
BEGINS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND SURFACE FRONT THIS EVENING...YET TEMP
PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCOOLED LIQUID. SATURATION AT TEMPS BELOW -8C
DOESNT OCCUR OVER OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 09Z. I COULD SEE VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIP...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...POSSIBLY SLEET (SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER IS AT LEAST 2500 FT DEEP). SINCE PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT I AM NOT THINKING THIS WOULD AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT I CANT RULE OUT SOME SLICK SPOTS
DEVELOPING DUE TO A LIGHT GLAZE. REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...I CANT
SEE OUR CWA RECEIVING MUCH MORE THAN ONE INCH AND THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE FAR WEST. SNOW MAY LINGER IN EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD
COMPLETELY TAPPER OFF BY THE AROUND MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER BEST PRESSURE RISES QUICKLY TRANSITION SOUTH.
BY TIME PRECIP IS OCCURRING I DO NOT THINK WE WOULD SEE STRONG
ENOUGH GUSTS TO CREATE A BLOWING SNOW THREAT. MAYBE MINOR DRIFTING
SNOW DUE TO WINDS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE (MAINLY IN EASTERN
COLORADO).
REGARDING TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS...VERY COLD AIR MASS MOVES BACK
OVER THE CWA AFTER 06Z...AND HOW LOW TEMPS GET WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY LIMITED RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED
MIXING DUE TO POSSIBLE PRECIP/WIND. I STILL EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MORNING TEMPS AROUND ZERO OR COLDER IN OUR NE CWA (MCCOOK/NORTON).
I THINK IT IS MORE LIKELY WE SEE A BIGGER DROP OFF IN WINDS
SIMILAR TO NAM SURFACE WINDS...AS SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WHILE WIND CHILLS MAY BE AROUND -15F...BUT I AM NOT CONFIDENT
THIS WOULD BE WIDESPREAD OR PERSISTENT.
WITH ALL THIS SAID...NO ADVISORY (WINTER WEATHER OR WIND CHILL)
WILL BE ISSUED DURING THIS UPDATE...BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FREEZING PRECIP COVERAGE AND WIND CHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
OVERALL...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE QUIET IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY COMES FRIDAY...AND ACTIVE IS AN
OVERSTATEMENT. DURING THE DAY...THE CENTER OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
HIGH PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. ON FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUED
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SO
DECIDED TO MENTION LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. AT THIS
TIME...IT IS TOO TOUGH TO TELL WHETHER THE ICE GROWTH ZONE SATURATES
OR NOT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO FRIDAY
MORNING AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT. FURTHER
EAST...THERE MAY BE SOME PRECIPITATION BUT FORECAST LIFT APPEARS
WEAK. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
GUARANTEES ANOTHER COLD DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST BUT LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH BUT MOISTURE LOOKS MINIMAL AT
THIS TIME. THERE APPEARS TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN SHIFT BY
NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TAKES SHAPE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WOULD MEAN A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR INLAND THIS RIDGE PRESSES. THIS TREND SHOULD
NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IF IT WERE TO
OCCUR. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME AS THE
EUROPEAN DEVELOPS THE RIDGE EARLIER WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A RIDGE
WITH A CUT-OFF LOW PASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT AND
POTENTIAL SNOW AT BOTH TERMINALS. BETTER SNOW CHANCES WILL BE AT
KGLD...EVEN THEN CONFIDENCE STILL WASNT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION
DURING THIS UPDATE. BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT WILL LIKELY BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. IT DOES LOOK LIKE MVFR...IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. BETTER IFR CHANCES IN THE WEST. I AM CONCERN
ABOUT POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN SO NO MENTION DURING THIS TAF ISSUANCE. IF WINTRY PRECIP
WERE TO DEVELOP I WOULD EXPECT VIS TO DROP AT LEAST INTO THE 1-3SM
RANGE. ALL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 12Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS BASED ON TIMING OF BETTER COVERAGE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
209 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST MON JAN 5 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALONG FRONT RANGE AS A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM AS A RESULT OF CLOUD
COVER AND SHALLOW INVERSION OVER ESTABLISHED SNOW PACK. SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS MANAGED TO BRING WARMER TEMPS FROM FRONT RANGE TOWARDS
EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO...HOWEVER THESE HAVE STRUGGLED TO ADVECT
FURTHER EAST AS WEAKER FLOW HAS BEEN IN PLACE IN KS/NE. I WOULD
STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST IN THE
WEST...BUT THERE MAY BE VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL WARMING IN OUR EAST.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. NAM/RAP SHOWING STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND
THIS FRONT...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS
SATURATED LAYER REMAINING VERY SHALLOW. I AM ALSO SKEPTICAL OF THE
BL CONDITIONS ADVERTISED IN NAM AS ITS SNOW DEPTH IS SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER THAN REALITY (SHOWING 5-12" ACROSS CWA WHEN IN REALITY IT
AVERAGES 1-3"). BL CONDITIONS MAY BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY THIS FIELD
AND SINCE FOG/STRATUS NEVER MATERIALIZED LAST NIGHT I DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF MENTION IN GRIDS. WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH TUESDAY AS LEE
TROUGH REDEVELOPS. SAME ISSUES WITH WARMING TUESDAY AS TODAY AS
CLOUDS SNOW PACK POSSIBLY LIMITING MIXING. NUDGED HIGHS TUESDAY
TOWARD WHATS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR TODAY. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
THESE PERIOD WITH ANYTHING OTHER THAN A DRY FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
OVERALL...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE QUIET IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY COMES FRIDAY...AND ACTIVE IS AN
OVERSTATEMENT. DURING THE DAY...THE CENTER OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
HIGH PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. ON FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUED
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SO
DECIDED TO MENTION LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. AT THIS
TIME...IT IS TOO TOUGH TO TELL WHETHER THE ICE GROWTH ZONE SATURATES
OR NOT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO FRIDAY
MORNING AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT. FURTHER
EAST...THERE MAY BE SOME PRECIPITATION BUT FORECAST LIFT APPEARS
WEAK. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
GUARANTEES ANOTHER COLD DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST BUT LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH BUT MOISTURE LOOKS MINIMAL AT
THIS TIME. THERE APPEARS TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN SHIFT BY
NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TAKES SHAPE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WOULD MEAN A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR INLAND THIS RIDGE PRESSES. THIS TREND SHOULD
NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IF IT WERE TO
OCCUR. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME AS THE
EUROPEAN DEVELOPS THE RIDGE EARLIER WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A RIDGE
WITH A CUT-OFF LOW PASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MST MON JAN 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS EVENING WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BRING IN
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND IS REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE WITH ANOTHER LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 02Z
TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND STRONGER NORTH WINDS TO
FOLLOW ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING JUST BEYOND THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1101 PM MST MON JAN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST MON JAN 5 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALONG FRONT RANGE AS A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM AS A RESULT OF CLOUD
COVER AND SHALLOW INVERSION OVER ESTABLISHED SNOW PACK. SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS MANAGED TO BRING WARMER TEMPS FROM FRONT RANGE TOWARDS
EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO...HOWEVER THESE HAVE STRUGGLED TO ADVECT
FURTHER EAST AS WEAKER FLOW HAS BEEN IN PLACE IN KS/NE. I WOULD
STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST IN THE
WEST...BUT THERE MAY BE VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL WARMING IN OUR EAST.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. NAM/RAP SHOWING STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND
THIS FRONT...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS
SATURATED LAYER REMAINING VERY SHALLOW. I AM ALSO SKEPTICAL OF THE
BL CONDITIONS ADVERTISED IN NAM AS ITS SNOW DEPTH IS SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER THAN REALITY (SHOWING 5-12" ACROSS CWA WHEN IN REALITY IT
AVERAGES 1-3"). BL CONDITIONS MAY BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY THIS FIELD
AND SINCE FOG/STRATUS NEVER MATERIALIZED LAST NIGHT I DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF MENTION IN GRIDS. WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH TUESDAY AS LEE
TROUGH REDEVELOPS. SAME ISSUES WITH WARMING TUESDAY AS TODAY AS
CLOUDS SNOW PACK POSSIBLY LIMITING MIXING. NUDGED HIGHS TUESDAY
TOWARD WHATS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR TODAY. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
THESE PERIOD WITH ANYTHING OTHER THAN A DRY FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST MON JAN 5 2015
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL
SPILL IN BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
ON THURSDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS...BUT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL AGAIN
BE VERY LIGHT...LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE QUITE AS COLD BEHIND THAT FRONT WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE
20S. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH A ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CONUS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MST MON JAN 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS EVENING WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BRING IN
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND IS REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE WITH ANOTHER LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 02Z
TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND STRONGER NORTH WINDS TO
FOLLOW ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING JUST BEYOND THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
716 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 715AM UPDATE...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH RADAR APPEARS TO BE OVERSHOOTING SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OHIO...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES IN THAT AREA AND LATEST HRRR ALSO SHOWS WESTERN EDGE
OF SNOW QUICKLY REACHING THE REGION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AREA OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST AS MAIN SHORTWAVE
RUSHES INTO EASTERN PA AND SURFACE WAVE WASHES OUT. WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF KEEPING SNOW GOING IN THE RIDGES WITH GOOD UP-SLOPE
FLOW AND COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE ARCTIC
FRONT. COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GOOD LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED EVENT
IS SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A DUAL LAKE FETCH EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ERODING AS
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND ARCTIC POOL DRIFTS NORTHEAST.
THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AND COLD WITH MORE SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS THROUGH AND ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH SOME RELATIVE MODERATION
INDICATED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM MAY GENERATE MORE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES...EARLY ON FRIDAY. USED A GFS AND HPC
BLEND TO DEPICT THAT SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR IN -SN CONTINUES AS SHORTWAVE AXIS
APPROACHES AREA. BACK EDGE OF STEADY SNOW EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z...WITH SOME LINGERING -SHSN
BEHIND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES. CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MVFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ACHIEVING VFR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT AS ARCTIC BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND PASSES...WITH NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS. IFR COULD RETURN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD IN THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT.
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN LIKELY AS COLD FLOW ACRS THE GREAT LAKES FUELS
STRATOCU AND SNOW SHWRS INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ020-021-029-031-073-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
427 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND
A BROAD TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN
WNW CYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UPPER MI WAS DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...A 1051 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER W
CNTRL CANADA RIDGING INTO THE PLAINS WAS SLOWLY BUILDING TO THE EAST
BRINGING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. UPSTREAM TEMPS OVER MUCH OF
NW ONTARIO RANGED FROM -5F TO -15F LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
320-340 FLOW LES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER THIS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A REINFORCING BATCH OF VERY COLD AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
-30C...RESULTING IN VERY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE...LAKE
INDUCED CAPE OVER 1K J/KG. HOWEVER....THE COLD WILL DROP THE DGZ
BELOW 3K FT...KEEPING SLR VALUES CLOSER TO 20/1. THE HIGHER RES
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV AND HEAVIEST LES
WILL DEVELOP INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI OVER ALGER COUNTY AND N
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS UP TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OVER THE WEST...THE SHORTER FETCH
AND LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO
THE 2 TO 6 INCH RANGE. AN ADVY WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY
EVEN THOUGH OVERALL AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE
EXPECTED. LOCATIONS NEAR BIG BAY AND EAST OF HARVEY COULD SEE SOME
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS. M-28 BETWEEN HARVEY AND MUNISING
COULD ALSO SEE SOME OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AS NW WINDS GUST
INTO THE 30-40 MPH RANGE NEAR THE SHORE.
A WIND CHILL WARNING WAS POSTED FOR THE INTERIOR WEST WITH WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO AROUND -35. THE STRONGER WINDS AND SOME LAKE
MODIFICATION WILL LIMIT TEMP FALL OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WITH MINS
IN THE -5F TO 10F RANGE. HOWEVER...THE 10-20 MPH WINDS WILL STILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LOWER WIND CHILLS TO AROUND -30...SOLIDLY INTO THE
ADVY RANGE(-25 TO -35). CONDITIONS WILL ONLY SLOWLY MODERATE WED
MORNING AS THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE.
AS WINDS BACK STEADILY INTO WED AFTERNOON...THE LES WILL SHIFT AND
DIMINISH OVER MOST LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER....A MORE
FAVORABLE FETCH INTO THE KEWEENAW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN LES
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY COVERING EASTERN CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE TROUGH IN PLACE...WAVES OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION AND LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN A LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY AND A HIGH IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT THE LAKE
EFFECT TO TRANSITION TO THE WESTERLY WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS...LARGELY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE EAST OF MUNISING. INVERSION HEIGHTS DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOK TO BE AROUND 6-7KFT AND IT APPEARS DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE OF THE LES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER.
A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA WILL STRENGTHEN A TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN DRAG
IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF STRONG BUT BRIEF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERIOD OF
LIKELY POPS AS THAT CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STILL THINK
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 0.5-2.0 INCH RANGE...BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON SNOW RATIOS AS SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE A VERY
DEEP CLOUD WITHIN THE DGZ WHICH COULD PRODUCE RATIOS OF 25-30 TO
ONE.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER...ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT WILL DEVELOP AS
850MB TEMPS FALL FROM -16C AT 18Z THURSDAY TO -26C BY 12Z FRIDAY
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE PRESENT AND
FAIRLY HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW
DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THE LAST COUPLE
OF EVENTS...EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO LEAD TO SNOW RATIOS AND FINER
FLAKES...THUS LEADING TO SNOW THAT IS EFFICIENT AT REDUCING
VISIBILITIES. AS A STARTING POINT...HAVE PUT 12HR AMOUNTS OF 2-4IN
FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS BELTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND IN THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AREAS ON FRIDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW WIND CHILLS...WITH
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE -20 TO -30 DEGREE
RANGE.
THE POCKET OF VERY COLD AIR WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LEADING TO A VERY SLOW MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES ALOFT
UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO
TRANSITION TO THE WESTERLY WIND AREAS ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER HIGH DROPS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL START TO DIMINISH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE FINAL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST-NORTHEAST. THAT WILL ALLOW A HIGH TO MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES ON TUESDAY...BUT KEEP A LINGERING RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE RIDGE...COMBINED WITH
MODERATING 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C...WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING
LES CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES STARTING TO TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
AT CMX..LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW LES.
WITH INCOMING VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR...SNOWFLAKES WILL BECOME
FINER/SMALLER AND VERY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS. COMBINED WITH
INCREASING WINDS/BLSN LATE AFTN/EVENING...EXPECT PREVAILING VLIFR
CONDITIONS BY EVENING. AT KIWD...VEERING WINDS WILL DROP CONDITIONS
FROM MVFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO IFR/LIFR...LATE IN THE AFTN AS
SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT UNDER
NW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTN...AND THEN IFR IN THE EVENING AS SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE
ALONG WITH SOME BLSN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...WITH
INTERMITTENT GALES. CURRENTLY HAVE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS
POSTED ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ACTIVE WEATHER FORECAST
WITH GALE EVENTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THE NW GALES DEVELOPING TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WRLY LATE WED
AND THEN DIMINISH ON THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THU
NIGHT INTO FRI WILL BRING THE NEXT PERIOD OF NW GALES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 1
PM EST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001>007-012-013-084-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001>003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR MIZ002-009.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR MIZ009>011.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005>007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ007-
013-014.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY
FOR LSZ240>251-263>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ243>245-248>251-
264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-
240>242-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY
FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
312 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/STORM TERM/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/AVIATION/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
WINDY AND COLD WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN
THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE.
THE COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. A SLOW WARM UP BEGINS SUNDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.STORM TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
I CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY I ISSUED AROUND NOON FOR THE
LAKE SHORE COUNTIES FROM AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (ARW...NMM...NAM AND AS FAR
OUT AS IT NOW GOES THE HRRR) ALL SHOW A DOMINANT SNOW BAND SETTING
UP FROM AROUND MUSKEGON THROUGH GRAND HAVEN THROUGH THE CITY OF
ALLEGAN AND THROUGH OSHTEMO BY 01 AM. THAT BAND ONLY VERY SLOWLY
ROTATES CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE BY 7 AM. FROM THERE IT REMAINS A
GOOD PART OF THE DAY ONLY TO ROTATES BACK INLAND SLIGHTLY LATE IN
THE DAY BUT BY THEN IT IS WEAKENING.
THE NAM...ARW...NMM...RAP AND HRRR ALL SHOW STRONG LIFT NEAR AND
JUST ABOVE THE DGZ... MOISTURE DEPTH TO 8000 FT...AND WINDS
NORTHWEST (310-320 DEGREES) WITH ONLY MINOR SHIFTING IN DIRECTION
BETWEEN 1 AM AND 2 PM WEDNESDAY IN THAT DOMINANT SNOW BAND LOCATION.
SOME LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE THE BEST LIFT IS ABOVE THE DGZ...THE
DGZ IS NEARLY ON THE GROUND. EVEN SO THE LIFT IS IMPRESSIVE AND
PERSISTENT FOR OVER 12 HOURS IN NEARLY THE SAME LOCATIONS. SO...I
HAVE TO IMAGINE 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS MORE THAN LIKELY IN THAT
AREA. I DO NOT SEE BLOWING SNOW AS A MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT
SINCE WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
SHORE (YOU HAVE TO BE ON THE BEACH TO GET WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN 30
MPH). STILL THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 MPH INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
ADVISORY SHOULD INCLUDE ALL OF THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES FROM
MASON THROUGH VAN BUREN. I WILL HAVE LAKE COUNTY IN THE ADVISORY
TOO BUT IT WILL REALLY ONLY BE ITS EXTREME WESTERN SECTION THAT
WILL BE IMPACTED.
.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AND THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
CERTAINLY THE COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A LARGE...1052MB...HIGH IS
PROGD TO SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS WILL WARM...TEMPS OVER THE LAKE WILL STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED AND IT/S POSSIBLE WE/LL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES AS APPARENT TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY/LL BE AROUND -15 OR
SO. WE/LL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. H8 TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND -22C. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SYNOPTIC SNOW AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND MAY ACCUMULATE 3-6 INCHES...HIGHEST OVER THE
WESTERN CWA. WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THAT TOO.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
DUE TO A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT... SNOW WILL BE
FALLING AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY... WHEN CONDITIONS START TO BECOME
UNFAVORABLE. SATURDAY AFTERNOON... COULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB
WARMING AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING LESS CYCLONIC. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MAY POSSIBLY PASS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY... BRIEFLY INCREASING THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW. HAVE SOME SNOW CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY... AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A MODERATING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FRIDAY... SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WINDS WILL BECOME NNWLY OVERNIGHT
AND THAT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW BANDS CLOSER TO THE LAKE. AS
SUCH...CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT AT KLAN/KJXN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
TO SIMPLIFY THINGS...WE ENDED THE SCA A LITTLE EARLY AND BUMPED UP
THE GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TO BEGIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT AND WILL GUST TO 40 KNOTS. GIVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
OVER THE LAKE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AND MARINERS CAN
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE UP ICE JAMS ON AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. RIVERS ARE BECOMING ICE COVERED. AVERAGE AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL BELOW 20 DEGREES... WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE TEENS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN ICE
FORMATION.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-064-071.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
STORM TERM...WDM
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
919 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
LOWERED MIN TEMPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE NW WI FA. WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE BORDERLINE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
WILL LEAVE HEADLINES IN PLACE. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
DUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING...BUT
MAY BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF AS THE CLOUDS ARRIVE. THIS MAY AFFECT THE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE FOR NOW BUT
WILL RE-ASSES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE
SNOW TO 11Z AND REDUCED THE COVERAGE TO JUST THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR CHANGES AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
MAIN CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM ARE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND SNOW
THURSDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST
REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLE TO REACH NEAR ZERO IN SOME
PLACES. THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE WIND CHILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THIS EVENING DOWN INTO THE -10 TO -15 RANGE.
WITH THE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH AND COORDINATION...WILL KEEP WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF DROPPING THE ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS EVENING SO THAT WILL BEAR MONITORING.
THE NEXT CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE SNOWFALL ON THURSDAY. A
FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF MN DURING THE DAY. WAA WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL BECOME STEADY
THEN SLOWLY RISE TOWARD SUNRISE. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN BY SUNRISE IN
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SPREAD EAST RAPIDLY.
IT WILL END ACROSS THE WESTERN BY 18Z...TWIN PORTS AND OUT OF THE WI
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z-02Z. SNOWFALL WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AND MAY CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK END TO ANY SNOW THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
SFC TROF MOVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ONE
LAST COLD SHOT OF THE WEEK. AND THIS NEXT SHOT LOOKS JUST AS
COLD...IF NOT COLDER...THAN THE LAST TWO WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS
WEEK. THE GFS HAS 8H TEMPS OF -32C COMING SOUTH...THE ECMWF AT -31C
WITH THE NAM WARMEST AT ABOUT -28C. THE PAST TWO COLD EPISODES HAVE
SEEN THE INL RADIOSONDE MEASURING -28C...SO AS AT LEAST AS COLD. AND
WITH THE FRESH SNOW WE EXPECT...STILL BRISK WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES...IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD. MAY NEED TO BUMP CURRENT
THURSDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS DOWN A FEW NOTCHES.
ONCE THIS LAST COLD SNAP EASES UP THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MUCH
MORE ZONAL...WHICH WILL GIVE US INCREASINGLY WARMER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
VFR UNTIL 12Z WHEN LIGHT SNOW BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. MVFR IS EXPECTED AS THE SNOW INTENSIFIES THROUGH 20Z. A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM NW TO SE FROM 18Z THROUGH
00Z/09. GUSTY NW SFC WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -5 8 -12 -1 / 0 80 20 0
INL -8 6 -17 -4 / 0 80 20 10
BRD -6 10 -11 0 / 10 80 0 0
HYR -7 8 -11 -1 / 0 80 30 0
ASX -5 10 -7 1 / 0 80 50 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
626 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
DUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING...BUT
MAY BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF AS THE CLOUDS ARRIVE. THIS MAY AFFECT THE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE FOR NOW BUT
WILL RE-ASSES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE
SNOW TO 11Z AND REDUCED THE COVERAGE TO JUST THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR CHANGES AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
MAIN CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM ARE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND SNOW
THURSDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST
REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLE TO REACH NEAR ZERO IN SOME
PLACES. THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE WIND CHILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THIS EVENING DOWN INTO THE -10 TO -15 RANGE.
WITH THE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH AND COORDINATION...WILL KEEP WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF DROPPING THE ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS EVENING SO THAT WILL BEAR MONITORING.
THE NEXT CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE SNOWFALL ON THURSDAY. A
FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF MN DURING THE DAY. WAA WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL BECOME STEADY
THEN SLOWLY RISE TOWARD SUNRISE. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN BY SUNRISE IN
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SPREAD EAST RAPIDLY.
IT WILL END ACROSS THE WESTERN BY 18Z...TWIN PORTS AND OUT OF THE WI
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z-02Z. SNOWFALL WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AND MAY CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK END TO ANY SNOW THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
SFC TROF MOVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ONE
LAST COLD SHOT OF THE WEEK. AND THIS NEXT SHOT LOOKS JUST AS
COLD...IF NOT COLDER...THAN THE LAST TWO WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS
WEEK. THE GFS HAS 8H TEMPS OF -32C COMING SOUTH...THE ECMWF AT -31C
WITH THE NAM WARMEST AT ABOUT -28C. THE PAST TWO COLD EPISODES HAVE
SEEN THE INL RADIOSONDE MEASURING -28C...SO AS AT LEAST AS COLD. AND
WITH THE FRESH SNOW WE EXPECT...STILL BRISK WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES...IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD. MAY NEED TO BUMP CURRENT
THURSDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS DOWN A FEW NOTCHES.
ONCE THIS LAST COLD SNAP EASES UP THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MUCH
MORE ZONAL...WHICH WILL GIVE US INCREASINGLY WARMER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
VFR UNTIL 12Z WHEN LIGHT SNOW BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. MVFR IS EXPECTED AS THE SNOW INTENSIFIES THROUGH 20Z. A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM NW TO SE FROM 18Z THROUGH
00Z/09. GUSTY NW SFC WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -6 8 -12 -1 / 0 80 20 0
INL -9 6 -17 -4 / 0 80 20 10
BRD -6 10 -11 0 / 10 80 0 0
HYR -7 8 -11 -1 / 0 80 30 0
ASX -6 10 -7 1 / 0 80 50 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
556 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
.UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WAS TIMING A CLIPPER INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWING SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONCERNS THU
AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT.
FOR THE SNOW...MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH A WNW-ESE ORIENTED
BAND OF SNOW WITH TOTAL QPF OF AROUND 0.15 FALLING. WHERE THEY STILL
DISAGREE IS HOW FAR NORTH/SOUTH THAT BAND WILL BE. COMPARING
RUN-TOTAL QPFS THRU 12Z THU FROM VARIOUS MODELS TO WHAT THE RAP HAS
THROUGH THAT TIME /WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY THE END OF IT FORECAST
PERIOD/...IT INDICATES THE ECMWF IS RUNNING A LITTLE SLOW AND
NORTH...WHILE THE GEM IS FAST AND SOUTH. IN BETWEEN...AND MATCHING
UP WELL WITH WHAT THE RAP HAS THRU 12Z THU WERE THE SREF AND
NAM...SO BLENDED THE QPF FORECAST THAT DIRECTION...RESULTING IN
0.1-0.15" MELTED PRECIP BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...WHICH
RESULTED IN A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
UNLIKE SUNDAY NIGHTS SNOW WHEN ALMOST OUR ENTIRE PROFILE WAS COLDER
THAN -20C...RESULTING IN SNOW RATION CLOSER TO 10:1...PROFILES WITH
THIS SNOW ARE WARMER...WITH DEEPER SECTIONS IN THE ATMO GETTING INTO
THE FAVORED DGZ. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SNOW RATIOS UP MORE IN THE
16-19:1 RANGE...WHICH TRANSLATES TO A GOOD 1-3...MAYBE 4 INCHES
WITHIN THE HEAVIEST QPF SWATH. AMOUNTS WILL TAIL OFF PRETTY QUICK SW
OF I-94...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A LITTLE
BIT OF SNOW...WHICH WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR THU AFTN/NIGHT FOR WHEN
THE STRONG NW WINDS ARRIVE.
AS FOR THE WINDS...NOT MUCH CHANGED WITH THE GOING FORECAST. WE
STILL LOOK TO GET INTO STRONG CAA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO ABOVE 900 MB. NAM SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOW A SOLID 8-10 HOURS OUT AT RWF/FRM WHERE MIX DOWN WINDS ARE 35
KTS IN THE MID CHANNEL...WITH 45 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
CHANNEL...WHICH SHOULD EASILY TRANSLATE INTO FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 40
MPH. FOR BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARD ISSUES...THE BIG QUESTION WHERE AND
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. FOR THE AREA WITH THE BLIZZARD WATCH...A QUICK
TOUR OF ROADSIDE CAMERAS ACROSS THAT AREA SHOWED A SNOW PACK THAT
HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD IN THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND WILL
NEED SOME FRESH SNOW TO GET SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW ISSUES GOING.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE BLIZZARD WATCH AREA ALSO LOOKS TO BE THE PART OF
THE MPX CWA THAT SEES THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW...SO THE QUESTION
IS...IS A HALF INCH OF FRESH SNOW ENOUGH TO CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES THAT ARE STILL IN PLACE...LEFT
THE BLIZZARD WATCH IN PLACE...BUT RIGHT NOW...WOULD PLACE THE ODDS
AT NEEDING AN WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR BLOWING SNOW BEING HIGHER THAN
SEEING IT UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. WITH THAT SAID...THE GEM
SHOWS ALMOST OUR ENTIRE CWA GETTING 2 INCHES OF SNOW...AND IF THAT
WERE TO HAPPEN...THEN A BLIZZARD WARNING WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
WHERE THE WATCH CURRENTLY IS.
OUTSIDE OF THE BLIZZARD WATCH...WE WILL LIKELY NEED AN ADVY FOR
BLOWING SNOW AS WELL...AS ALTHOUGH THE MEAGER SNOW CURRENTLY ON THE
GROUND IN CENTRAL MN IS NOT GOING TO CREATE BLSN ISSUES...A FRESH
INCH OF POWDER WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN BLOWING
SNOW...THOUGH THE LACK OF EXISTING SNOW COVER SHOULD KEEP
VISIBILITIES IN CHECK. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A ISSUING AN
ADVY AT THIS TIME UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDEL ON EXACTLY WHERE AND
HOW MUCH SNOW WE WILL SEE ACROSS MN. FOR ERN MN AND WRN WI...AN ADVY
SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED AS ONE...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT GET TO OUR
ADVY CRITERIA...WHILE LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD TO FEWER ISSUES WITH
BLOWING SNOW.
OF COURSE WE CAN NOT FORGET THAT WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND
ZERO...WE ARE STILL SEEING WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -20F AND -30F.
HOWEVER...LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO COME BY 3Z IN WC MN AND 6Z IN WC WI
AS THE COMBINATION OF WINDS TURNING TO THE SW AND BRINGING IN WAA
ALONG WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE NW WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR
RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER 3Z/6Z. THESE RISING TEMPERATURES EXPLAIN
WHY WC AND CENTRAL MN WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WIND CHILL ADVY AS WIND
CHILL VALUES THERE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW...AS THIS
WILL BE THE "WARMEST" PART OF THE MPX CWA FOR ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
FRIDAY/S THERMAL PROFILE IS COMPARABLE TO TODAY/S 92H/85H TEMPS...OR
A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THIS BASICALLY TRANSLATES TO MORNING LOWS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE ADDED NEW
SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WIND SPDS WILL ALSO BE
SIMILAR WITH 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST SFC
TEMPS/WIND SPD...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE CLOSE AGAIN TO WARNING
CRITERIA WHICH IS -35F OR LOWER FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE THAT COULD BE A HIGH END WIND CHILL ADVISORY BASED
ON THIS MORNING VALUES.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
GRADUAL BREAK DOWN ON THE MEAN TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PART OF NORTH
AMERICA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE
ACROSS NE CANADA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
POSSIBLY ZONAL FLOW BY LATE NEXT WEEK IN OUR REGION. NO MAJOR
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST.
SOME OF THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALY OF 85H/50H HEIGHTS/TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ALSO INDICATE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPS SLOWLY RISE FROM NEAR ZERO ON FRIDAY...TO THE TEENS
AND 20S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND OF
THE EC/GFS MEAN 85H TEMPS AND THICKNESS VALUES OF THE 100-50H...DOES
SHOW NEAR FREEZING SFC TEMPS OR ABV FREEZING BY LATE NEXT WEEK...AND
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THIS AGAIN IS BASED ON THE SLOW
TRANSITION OF THE MEAN TROUGH...TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE STRONG DEVELOPMENT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR OF THE
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR CIGS AND SNOW
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. THIS WILL BE A
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 35KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN MN. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AT ALL SITES.
KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO SNOW STARTING AROUND 13-14Z. THE
SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST DURING THE LATE MORNING...WITH AROUND 1 TO
2" OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUST IN EXCESS
OF 30KTS CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS WNW 15G25 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ053-060>070-
073>078-082>085-091>093.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ064-065-067-073>076-082>085-091>093.
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
828 PM MST WED JAN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
WE WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE EVENING FORECAST TO SOUTHEAST MT AND SHERIDAN. RADAR IMAGES
THIS EVENING HAVE SHOWN SOME SPOTTY/LIGHT MOISTURE MAY BE REACHING
THE GROUND EAST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS...AND WE DID HAVE ONE REPORT
OF THAT...SO WE ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST. HRRR SIMULATIONS HINT AT
THIS VERY THING...AND ALSO END IT BY AROUND 06 UTC AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT SLACKENS. OTHERWISE...WE DID TWEAK TEMPERATURES IN
SEVERAL PLACES A BIT TONIGHT WITH THE IDEA THAT THEY ARE NOT GOING
TO FALL TOO FAR IN MOST PLACES...AND WILL EVEN RISE IN SPOTS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT.
WINDS ARE EVER-SO-SLOWLY EASING IN THE CLARKS FORK DRAINAGE DURING
THE MID-EVENING...BUT RECENT REPORTS STILL SUGGEST LOTS OF BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW FROM THE WEST END OF BILLINGS TO LAUREL AND ALSO
FURTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG HIGHWAY 212. THUS WE WILL LEAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS. IT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE
TO BE LET GO AS PLANNED AT MIDNIGHT AS THE DRAINAGE WINDS DIMINISH
FURTHER.
FINALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BLAST REMAINS
ON TRACK TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MT WITH 6MB/3 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND BUFKIT-
BASED MOMENTUM TRANSFER TECHNIQUES SUPPORTIVE OF 35 TO 45 MPH WIND
GUSTS THURSDAY. THERE ARE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MT...SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS LIKELY. WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN OPEN COUNTRY AT TIMES OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MT ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE SNOW DOESN/T SEEM DEEP ENOUGH TO YIELD
TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON A WIDE ENOUGH SCALE OR FOR LONG ENOUGH
FOR A BLIZZARD WARNING. WE/LL BE CONTINUALLY RE-EVALUATING THAT IN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THOUGH. ALL WE DID FOR THAT PART OF THE FORECAST
IN THIS EVENING UPDATE WAS TO RAISE WIND SPEEDS UP A BIT MORE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MT...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING. SCHULTZ
PREVIOUS UPDATE...ISSUED AT 543 PM MST WED JAN 7 2015...
WE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT WHERE
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED ABOUT 20 MPH. THE WORST BLOWING
SNOW AS OF LATE AFTERNOON IS OCCURRING FROM RED LODGE TO LAUREL...
AND WITH MULTIPLE REPORTS OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A DOT-
DEFINED SEVERE DRIVING CONDITION ALONG PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 212...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST OVER EASTERN
CARBON COUNTY...THE RED LODGE FOOTHILLS AND YELLOWSTONE COUNTY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE WINDS IN THAT AREA ARE BEING ENHANCED BY DRAINAGE
EFFECTS AND A STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT. THE LATTER SHOULD
BE AT ITS PEAK NOW AND EASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CORE OF GREATEST
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS DROPS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME WINDS MAY BE PICKING UP SOME ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MT AND SO WE HAVE ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THAT
AREA AS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA REMAINS PLANNED TO PLOW THROUGH AREA
THURSDAY. WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM EASTWARD IN TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. FRONT WILL PUSH FIRST THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES EARLY IN THE DAY THEN BACKDOORS INTO THE FOOTHILLS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL LIGHTLY FALL ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ZONES...GETTING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
BEING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...BEST BLOWING SNOW LOOKS
TO OCCUR THERE AS WELL. BUT LOOSE SNOW LOOKS TO BE MAINLY FOUND FROM
ROSEBUD COUNTY EAST. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
NEIGHBORING AREAS SUCH AS BIG HORN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOW
MAY ADD TO THE MIX. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THURSDAY TOO
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.
THURSDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA HELPING
TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO EAST TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW FLATTENS A BIT BUT COLD LOW
LEVELS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR WITH THE SNOWCOVER AND SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA. JAMBA
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD. THINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM AS THE UPPER FLOW IS MORE ZONAL.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AND COULD BE ENHANCED
OVER THE FOOTHILLS WITH AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOME ENERGY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW LOOKS TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE AREA
ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT. TWEAKED UP POPS MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES ACCORDINGLY. JAMBA
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE E OF KBIL AND
S INTO KSHR UNTIL 09Z. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT.
GUSTY SW SURFACE WINDS OVER AND NEAR KBIL THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT MST. THE WINDS WILL CAUSE
OCCASIONAL DECREASES IN VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW UNTIL THEY
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE N ON THU...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL BE
LOWER IN AREAS OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 025/026 905/011 004/020 010/024 011/029 016/030 018/036
06/S 41/B 12/J 23/S 21/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 025/029 004/026 018/035 019/034 020/036 021/034 021/042
05/S 41/B 12/J 23/S 22/S 11/B 11/U
HDN 013/027 909/012 901/020 005/023 004/028 012/030 013/035
16/S 30/U 11/B 23/S 21/B 10/B 11/B
MLS 013/020 917/002 909/012 904/015 002/023 011/027 014/035
27/S 10/U 11/B 13/S 11/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 017/024 915/007 901/019 004/021 007/026 014/030 014/038
27/S 10/U 01/B 12/S 11/B 11/B 11/U
BHK 009/017 916/002 907/012 904/014 003/023 011/026 015/034
27/S 00/U 11/B 12/S 11/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 013/031 905/016 007/028 011/028 010/030 014/031 013/039
24/S 31/U 12/J 23/S 11/B 11/B 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 31>33-36-37-58.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT
FOR ZONES 35-39-56.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
352 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT THE MULTI-DAY SNOW IS SLOWING
COMING TO AN END. THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS AGAIN SHIFTED AS FAR WEST
AS LIVINGSTON AND THE FOOTHILLS WHERE TEMPERATURES DROPPED FROM
ABOUT 50 TO 20 DEGREES IN 5 MINUTES. VAD WIND PROFILE HAS SHOWN
THE ARCTIC HAS DEEPEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AS WELL WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 8K FEET. SNOW THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN MONTANA FOR MOST OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWEST AS THE RADAR HAS BEEN FILLING IN FROM
ROSEBUD COUNTY TO WHEATLAND AND STILLWATER COUNTIES. MOST OF THIS
LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT BUT THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER
ACTIVITY. HRRR MODEL DOES NOT SHOW THIS BAND OF SNOW MAKING IT TOO
FAR WEST OF BILLINGS. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FROM
ABOUT COLUMBUS WESTWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A ROUNDUP-BILLINGS-
SHERIDAN LINE WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE MORE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE AS
DYNAMICS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. MODELS
DECREASE THE SNOW SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SO LOWERED POPS TO
JUST A CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AS THE ARCTIC SHIFTS EAST AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WENDESDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING. MODELS THEN BRING THE ARCTIC FRONT
BACK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO TEENS BELOW ZERO. THE FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA BUT DYNAMICS OVERALL ARE
MUCH WEAKER THAN THIS PAST SYSTEM SO ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MUCH
LIGHTER. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
THE LATEST EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...AND ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
STARTING FRIDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
...BEGINNING THE SLOW RETREAT OF THE ARCTIC AIR. THIS RETREAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
DECENT TEMPERATURE SPREAD EAST TO WEST UNTIL THE ARCTIC AIR CLEARS
THE STATE. BY SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE MILD COMPARED TO
THE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH REMAINING BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT
10 DEGREES.
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY AS A LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP OFF THIS LOW AND MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE
TRACK OF THE WAVE...WITH THE EC SHIFTING THE WEAK FORCING A LITTLE
EAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION. NEITHER SOLUTION HAS STRONG FORCING OR
MOISTURE....THUS EXPECTING AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. REIMER/HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH
CENTRAL WY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 06 UTC AS THE SNOW ENDS.
IT COULD TAKE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CEILINGS TO RETURN TO VFR
LEVELS IN SOME AREAS...BUT WE DO EXPECT VFR WEATHER OVER THE WHOLE
AREA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 000/035 024/025 902/011 004/020 011/024 011/029 016/030
71/B 13/S 21/B 12/J 22/J 11/B 01/B
LVM 012/044 026/033 008/026 019/035 019/034 020/036 021/034
21/N 01/B 21/B 12/J 22/J 11/B 11/B
HDN 000/028 016/026 907/012 901/020 005/023 004/028 013/030
70/E 13/S 20/B 11/B 22/J 11/B 00/B
MLS 911/018 013/021 914/002 909/012 904/015 002/023 011/027
60/B 23/S 10/U 11/B 12/J 10/B 01/B
4BQ 905/024 017/025 912/007 901/019 005/021 007/026 014/030
70/B 04/S 10/U 01/B 12/J 11/B 11/B
BHK 918/014 009/020 914/002 907/012 904/014 003/023 011/026
30/B 23/S 00/U 11/B 12/J 00/B 11/B
SHR 000/031 025/029 903/016 007/028 011/028 010/030 014/031
61/B 03/S 31/B 12/J 22/J 11/B 01/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR ZONES 28>33-35>38-42-57-58.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 63.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
939 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ANOTHER DAY WITH EXPECTED SNOWFALL BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO TAPER
DOWN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE EAST
AND WEST ACROSS OUR CENTRAL LOCATIONS WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR REED POINT. TEMPERATURES FROM BIG TIMBER TO
LIVINGSTON ARE CLOSE TO 50 DEGREES WITH READINGS IN THE BILLINGS
AREA IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MILES CITY AND
BAKER. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS ARCTIC IS VERY SHALLOW WITH WEST
WINDS BRINING WARM AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WARM
OVERRUNING IS ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR CENTRAL ZONES.
MODELS SHOW THE ARCTIC AIR DEEPENING JUST A BIT THIS AFTERNOON
AND SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER WEST. SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS
EAST AND NORTHEAST MONTANA AND THE HRRR MODEL BRINGS THIS AREA OF
SNOW SOUTHWEST THROUGH BILLINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE EAST AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCES FROM ABOUT COLUMBUS
WESTWARD. DYNAMICS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY SO NOT EXPECTING
AS HEAVY OF A SNOW BURST AS WE SAW MONDAY EVENING BUT STILL
ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY AT LIVINGSTON BUT ADVISORY TYPE WINDS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED SO HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AND THE
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE REMAINING WINTER
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AND RE- EVALUATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
STILL A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WITH DIFFICULT DETAILS TO
SORT OUT. ARCTIC BOUNDARY HAS BOOMED OUT OF LIVINGSTON OVERNIGHT
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 50KTS. NOT REALLY GAP FLOW AS THE
WIND DIRECTION WAS 250 DEGREES...BUT THERE WAS A BIT OF A GRADIENT
PERPENDICULAR TO THE VALLEY. BELIEVE WINDS COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEING TAPPED INTO AS LIVINGSTON HAS WARMED
IN THE UPPER 40S ALREADY THIS MORNING AND 700MB WINDS WERE
PROJECTED AT 55KTS ON THE RAP. ISSUED A QUICK ADVISORY FOR THESE
WINDS AND TOOK IT THROUGH THE MORNING. GFS DECREASES THE GRADIENT
BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE ARCTIC WAS SET TO ROLL BACK IN AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS AT 700MB HAS THINNED OUT THE ARCTIC
DRAMATICALLY AS KBLX RADAR NOW ONLY SEEING EAST WINDS ON THE FIRST
GATE...SO THE AIRMASS WAS LESS THAT A THOUSAND FEET DEEP. AS SEEN
WITH THE WARM READINGS AT LIVINGSTON...THERE IS WARMER AIR ABOVE
THE ARCTIC THAT COULD BE A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING
AS THE EVENING CREW INTRODUCED. WILL KEEP THAT THEME GOING BUT
TRIMMED THE AREA BACK FROM THE WEST UNDER THE WARMER AIR.
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING ALONG THE DEEPEST PART OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY HAS SLID EAST OF BILLINGS AND ALLOWED SNOW TO TAPER OFF
OVER WESTERN YELLOWSTONE COUNTY. THE STRONGEST RETURNS WERE FROM
EASTERN MUSSELSHELL COUNTY INTO NORTHERN BIG HORN AND TREASURE
COUNTIES. RADAR HAS LOOKED CONVECTIVE AND BELIEVE SOME OF SNOW
RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR RETURNS.
BELIEVE THE BAND WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE EASTWARD TOWARD MILES CITY
AND BROADUS THIS MORNING...WITH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES SEEING A
LULL IN ACTIVITY. THAT LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH.
THE ARCTIC IS PROGGED TO SWING BACK IN LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SLOPES BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. SNOW WILL KICK BACK IN AGAIN
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SNOW RATES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE SNOW ON MONDAY...BUT
SEVERAL INCHES WILL ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
LOOKS TO BE EAST OF A ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN LINE AND
WEST OF A FORSYTH TO BROADUS LINE. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. OTHER AREAS WILL STILL SEE SNOWFALL...JUST LIGHTER
AMOUNTS.
DROPPED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORIES IN PLACES AS
DOWNSLOPE WAS WORKING MAGIC AND EVEN WHEN THE ARCTIC GETS BACK IN
THIS AFTERNOON...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD STAY OVER CENTRAL
ZONES. CONTEMPLATED LOWERING SOME WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES...BUT
SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED AND COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES IN FACT...SO
DO NOT WANT TO COMPLICATE THINGS. TRAVEL WILL STILL BE VERY
CHALLENGING...ESPECIALLY ON RURAL ROADS AND SIDE STREETS...AND
SINCE SNOW WILL CONTINUE...DECIDED TO LET THE WARNING PLAY OUT.
DAY OR EVENING CREW MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY BASED ON HOW
THE DAY GOES.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AND END ALL TOGETHER
OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY AS HEIGHTS RISE. WILL BE
TOUGH TO WARM THINGS UP MUCH THOUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
A LOT OF FRESH SNOW COVER. TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
THE LATEST EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...AND ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THURSDAY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA...BRINGING MORE ARCTIC
AIR ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE WITH
THIS WAVE...AND THE FORCING CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK. AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW...CURRENTLY 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
STARTING FRIDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
...BEGINNING THE SLOW RETREAT OF THE ARCTIC AIR. THIS RETREAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
DECENT TEMPERATURE SPREAD EAST TO WEST UNTIL THE ARCTIC AIR CLEARS
THE STATE. BY SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE MILD COMPARED TO
THE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH REMAINING BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT
10 DEGREES.
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY AS A LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP OFF THIS LOW AND MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE
TRACK OF THE WAVE...WITH THE EC SHIFTING THE WEAK FORCING A LITTLE
EAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION. NEITHER SOLUTION HAS STRONG FORCING OR
MOISTURE....THUS EXPECTING AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. REIMER
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD. SNOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MT DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD WITH TIME AS
THE FRONT DOES...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN
ICE PELLETS FOR A TIME ON ITS LEADING EDGE /MAINLY NEAR KBIL UNTIL
ABOUT 20 UTC/. THERE COULD BE SOME LIFR CONDITIONS WHERE THE FLAKE
GROWTH IS BETTER IN THE SNOW...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT LIKE AT
KMLS. EXPECT AREA MOUNTAINS TO BE OBSCURED. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 017 000/026 020/025 902/014 006/022 013/023 010/027
9/S 71/E 03/J 21/B 12/J 22/J 11/U
LVM 049 012/044 026/033 008/028 020/035 020/034 019/034
3/O 21/N 02/J 21/B 12/J 22/J 11/B
HDN 017 000/025 016/026 907/015 002/023 007/023 004/027
+/S 71/E 02/J 20/B 11/E 22/J 11/U
MLS 010 911/018 012/021 912/005 907/013 902/015 000/022
+/S 30/E 12/J 10/B 11/B 11/B 10/B
4BQ 014 905/024 017/025 907/010 001/020 006/020 004/025
+/S 60/E 02/J 10/U 01/B 21/B 11/U
BHK 008 918/014 010/020 910/005 906/013 902/014 901/022
9/S 20/B 12/J 10/U 11/B 11/B 00/B
SHR 027 000/031 022/029 903/018 009/029 011/027 009/029
6/S 61/B 02/J 21/B 11/B 22/J 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR ZONES 28>33-35>38-42-57-58.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 63-68.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
WARM FRONT ALOFT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE WEST HELPING MIX THE WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
SFC...BFF AND IBM IN THE PANHANDLE ARE IN THE 40S. MEANWHILE FURTHER
EAST THE SNOWPACK AND LOWER LEVELS OF MOST OF THE CWA RESULTING IN
LESS MIXING AND TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT
SNOW TO N CENTRAL MOST OF THE DAY HAS DRIFTED EAST WITH MOST REPORTS
NOW ONLY SEEING FLURRIES IF ANYTHING. A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IS
CROSSING THE BLACK HILLS...ALTHOUGH THE TEMP THERE WAS ABOVE
FREEZING /AS WAS THE TEMPS OF THE LOWER LEVELS/ SO PRECIP WAS LIQUID
EARLIER. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO PUSH SE ACROSS WESTERN S
DAKOTA AND RAP HAS COOLED OFF WITH THE 21Z OB HAVING CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
ANOTHER COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FIRST OFF IS EVENING TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA IN POSITIVE C TERRITORY...HOWEVER MIXING IS LIMITED DO TO
CLOUDS...SNOW PACK...AND JANUARY SUN ANGLE. A COLD FRONT IS
BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
OVERNIGHT. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
AND ARE GUSTY. THIS GUSTINESS ALONG THE FRONT MAY ACTUALLY HELP
CAUSE A BUMP IN TEMPS. WITH SUCH WARM 850 MB TEMPS...THE MIXING MAY
CAUSE TEMPS TO SURGE BRIEFLY INTO THE 30S. THIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN CWA...MORE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO
THE SE. A FEW RADAR RETURNS ACROSS SW SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN NEB. THE WARM LOWER LEVEL IS ALSO DRY AND EXPECT LITTLE
MOISTURE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. THAT SAID...CAN NOT RULE OUT A
FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES THIS EVENING. THE NW FLOW AROUND THE HILLS
CONVERGES NEAR PINE RIDGE AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW THERE AS
WELL. AGAIN SOME CONCERN FOR THE DRY LOWER LEVELS LIMITING ANYTHING
REACHING THE GROUND AND POPS ARE LOW.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DO FINALLY DROP AFTER THE FRONT IS SOUTH OF
THE AREA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS LINGER AS A BLANKET AND LIMIT COOLING.
LOWS GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE
TEENS.
TOMORROW ARRIVES THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE FAST MOVING NW FLOW
REGIME. NORTHERN NEBRASKA HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. LIFT IS
MARGINAL IN THE NARROW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND SHOULD COMBINE
WITH THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO LESS THAN
AN INCH DURING THE DAYTIME. HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEB...ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL.
WARMER IN THE SW...MID 20S TO NEAR FREEZING...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
OPTIMISTIC DUE TO THE SNOW PACK.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
THE NEXT AIR MASS WILL MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THE TEMPERATURE OF THE AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE 5-15F
COLDER IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THAN IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ARE LOCATED WHERE THE
STRONGEST WIND IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...WIND CHILLS OF -20F TO -25F
APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR -30F FOR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA NEAR THE NIOBRARA.
ANOTHER FORECAST ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT. WITH THE AIR MASS SO STRONG...THE SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT
IS LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN THE 280-300K LAYER WITH THE BEST LIFT
IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A CROSS SECTION OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL
CIRCULATION THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL-SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INDICATES THAT
THE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LOT OF ENHANCEMENT FROM
FRONTOGENESIS OR INSTABILITY. WITH THE LOW PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
INDICATED IN THE MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND WE WILL KEEP
THE PROBABILITY FAIRLY LOW.
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...HIGHER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
A FRONT SAGS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS GOES
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. IN FACT...WITH ARCTIC AIR
MASSES GOING THROUGH EVERY TWO DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WIDELY
FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT. AS THE FRONTS GO THROUGH...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION BUT THE CHANCES...IF ANY...WILL BE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
AT KVTN...IFR CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 07Z. AN APPRAOCHING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR
CEILINGS TO KVTN AND KLBF AFTER 21Z...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ005>010-
026>029.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
103 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. EVEN COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS...BLUSTERY
WINDS AND A POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215 AM UPDATE...LES OFF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH
INLAND EXTENT BECOMING MORE LIMITED AS FLOW WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW
WARNING FOR NRN ONEIDA COUNTY TO EXPIRE AT 1 AM.
945 AM UPDATE...
DROPPED LES WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE LES BAND REMAINS ACRS NW
PART OF ONEIDA COUNTY AND WILL CONT LES WARNING NRN ONEIDA UNTIL
1 AM. THIS BAND WILL MOVE N OF ONEIDA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR
CONTS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDL ON THE BAND. THE LL FLOW CONTS TO
SLOWLY BACK MORE W-SW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND WAS
THE REASON FOR THE MOVEMENT OF THIS BAND. THIS WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SEE 345 PM UPDATE FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THIS.
645 PM UPDATE...
DROPPED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR ONONDAGA AND MADISON
COUNTIES AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY BACKS MORE WRLY IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LWR LAKE REGION. RADAR TRENDS ALSO SHOW THAT THIS BAND WAS
HEADING NORTHWARD. THE HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
PROGRESSION AND USED ITS REFLECTIVITY FIELDS AS A STARTING POINT
FOR MY HOURLY POPS. THESE HRRR FORECASTS WERE CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT JUST HASTEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN NC NY BY A FEW HOURS. FOR ONEIDA COUNTY
KEPT SRN 2/3 IN LES WARNING WHICH IS DUE TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM AND
THE NRN 1/3 EXPIRES BY 1 AM. THESE ENDING TIMES MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND CONT TO WATCH PROGRESSION
OF LES BANDS. I CAN SEE AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE INCHES IN SRN ONEIDA
AND MAYBE 3-5 INCHES ADDITIONAL IN NW ONEIDA CO. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SCT CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT FROM WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT
WAVE. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON TUESDAY/S
LIGHT SNOW EVENT.
300 PM UPDATE...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TARGETING OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY STATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STILL TOO
FAR SOUTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE BAND...WHICH IS A TYPICAL BIAS.
EXCEPT...THIS TIME THEY WERE VERY MUCH IN ERROR. THE CANADIAN LAM
AND GEM SEEMED TO DO THE BEST AND WERE LEANED ON. THE WESTERN HALF
OF ONEIDA COUNTY WILL SEE THE MOST TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WITH 1-2
FEET EXPECTED. ALREADY HAD REPORTS EARLIER TODAY RANGING FROM
10-14 INCHES WITH ANOTHER 6-12 TO COME TONIGHT. THE EXTREME NRN
BORDER OF ONONDAGA AND MADISON WILL ALSO FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE
LAKE SNOWS...BUT AREAS SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY MAY ONLY SEE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
LAKE BAND LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA/NRN GTLKS. THIS WILL BRING A VERY SHORT
REPRIEVE FROM THE LAKE SNOW...BEFORE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WORKS
IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
BLUSTERY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
300 PM...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE
MID- ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY...WITH A BIT OF A FURTHER SOUTH TREND
TO THE SNOW SHIELD THAN EARLIER RUNS. UPPER TROF AND WARM ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD STILL BRING LIGHT SNOW EVERYWHERE
IN CNY/NEPA. THIS LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THOSE HIGH PROBABILITY EVENTS
WITH LOW QPF...SO WILL STILL HIT IT WITH CAT POPS AND CALL IT PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW TO ILLUSTRATE THE MINIMAL IMPACT AND ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. WITH DENDRITE ZONE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
ONLY WEAK LIFT EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT ZONE...ACCUMS RIGHT NOW ARE ON
THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR SO.
THE BIGGER STORY THIS PERIOD IS THE IMPENDING ARCTIC FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AND RESULTING COLD SNAP THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
PATTERN HAS ALL THE MARKINGS OF A SNOW SQUALL EVENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT EITHER...LIFTS AN EXISTING LAKE BAND OFF
LAKE ONTARIO AND DRIVES IT SOUTHWARD...OR TAPS INTO
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE PRIOR TO THE FROPA. MODEL SOUNDING
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND THE BTV SNOW SQUALL TOOL IS JUST AS IMPRESSIVE. WILL
INTRODUCE THIS SNOW SQUALL HAZARD INTO OUR HAZ WX OUTLOOK PRODUCT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO TRAVEL AS A RESULT OF QUICK
HITTING SNOWS AND POOR VSBYS.
SOME LAKE RESPONSE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT
ATMOSPHERE DOES BECOME SYNOPTICALLY MOISTURE STARVED AND COLDER
THAN THE DENDRITE PRODUCTION ZONE...SO ACCUMS MAY BE LIMITED.
BLUSTERY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR WILL NATURALLY COMBINE FOR
PROBLEMATIC WIND CHILLS...AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST VALUES DO
SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA WITH READINGS COLDER THAN 15 BELOW. A MARGINAL WIND
CHILL WARNING EXISTS FOR OUR NATURALLY COLDER EASTERN ZONES BY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...JUST ANOTHER ADDITION TO THE HAZ WX
OUTLOOK PRODUCT BUT FCST TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
WATCHES...WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.
TEMPS COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND FOLLOWED A
MULTI-MODEL BLEND ON TEMPS/DWPTS/WIND AND SKY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.
LOWERED THU NGT MIN TEMPS SINCE THU MAX TEMPS COLDER. ENTIRE
PERIOD COLDER THAN AVERAGE WITH LAKE EFFECT AND A CLIPPER FRIDAY
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND BETTER LAKE EFFECT
WILL STAY IN THE NORTHERN THREE COUNTIES INCLUDING SYR AND RME.
QUESTIONS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT CLIPPER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY SO FOR NOW HAVE A GENERIC 20 POP FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING THIS MORNING ACROSS
CNTRL NEW YORK. EXPECT A BRIEF LUL IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MVFR WITH
EMBEDDED IFR. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO WEAKEN TO VFR AROUND 00Z
TONIGHT AS STRONG CAA MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT/WED...LAKE EFFECT -SHSN BRINGING RESTRICTIONS TO NY
TERMINALS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
THU...MAINLY VFR BUT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE KSYR-RME IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THU NGT/FRI/SAT...ANOTHER CLIPPER BRINGING RESTRICTIONS IN -SHSN
THU NGT WITH LAKE EFFECT -SHSN OVR NY TERMINALS FRI/SAT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/JAB/RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN/JAB/RRM
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1221 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. EVEN COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS...BLUSTERY
WINDS AND A POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215 AM UPDATE...LES OFF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH
INLAND EXTENT BECOMING MORE LIMITED AS FLOW WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW
WARNING FOR NRN ONEIDA COUNTY TO EXPIRE AT 1 AM.
945 AM UPDATE...
DROPPED LES WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE LES BAND REMAINS ACRS NW
PART OF ONEIDA COUNTY AND WILL CONT LES WARNING NRN ONEIDA UNTIL
1 AM. THIS BAND WILL MOVE N OF ONEIDA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR
CONTS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDL ON THE BAND. THE LL FLOW CONTS TO
SLOWLY BACK MORE W-SW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND WAS
THE REASON FOR THE MOVEMENT OF THIS BAND. THIS WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SEE 345 PM UPDATE FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THIS.
645 PM UPDATE...
DROPPED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR ONONDAGA AND MADISON
COUNTIES AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY BACKS MORE WRLY IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LWR LAKE REGION. RADAR TRENDS ALSO SHOW THAT THIS BAND WAS
HEADING NORTHWARD. THE HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
PROGRESSION AND USED ITS REFLECTIVITY FIELDS AS A STARTING POINT
FOR MY HOURLY POPS. THESE HRRR FORECASTS WERE CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT JUST HASTEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN NC NY BY A FEW HOURS. FOR ONEIDA COUNTY
KEPT SRN 2/3 IN LES WARNING WHICH IS DUE TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM AND
THE NRN 1/3 EXPIRES BY 1 AM. THESE ENDING TIMES MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND CONT TO WATCH PROGRESSION
OF LES BANDS. I CAN SEE AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE INCHES IN SRN ONEIDA
AND MAYBE 3-5 INCHES ADDITIONAL IN NW ONEIDA CO. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SCT CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT FROM WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT
WAVE. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON TUESDAY/S
LIGHT SNOW EVENT.
300 PM UPDATE...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TARGETING OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY STATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STILL TOO
FAR SOUTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE BAND...WHICH IS A TYPICAL BIAS.
EXCEPT...THIS TIME THEY WERE VERY MUCH IN ERROR. THE CANADIAN LAM
AND GEM SEEMED TO DO THE BEST AND WERE LEANED ON. THE WESTERN HALF
OF ONEIDA COUNTY WILL SEE THE MOST TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WITH 1-2
FEET EXPECTED. ALREADY HAD REPORTS EARLIER TODAY RANGING FROM
10-14 INCHES WITH ANOTHER 6-12 TO COME TONIGHT. THE EXTREME NRN
BORDER OF ONONDAGA AND MADISON WILL ALSO FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE
LAKE SNOWS...BUT AREAS SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY MAY ONLY SEE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
LAKE BAND LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA/NRN GTLKS. THIS WILL BRING A VERY SHORT
REPRIEVE FROM THE LAKE SNOW...BEFORE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WORKS
IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
BLUSTERY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
300 PM...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE
MID- ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY...WITH A BIT OF A FURTHER SOUTH TREND
TO THE SNOW SHIELD THAN EARLIER RUNS. UPPER TROF AND WARM ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD STILL BRING LIGHT SNOW EVERYWHERE
IN CNY/NEPA. THIS LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THOSE HIGH PROBABILITY EVENTS
WITH LOW QPF...SO WILL STILL HIT IT WITH CAT POPS AND CALL IT PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW TO ILLUSTRATE THE MINIMAL IMPACT AND ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. WITH DENDRITE ZONE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
ONLY WEAK LIFT EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT ZONE...ACCUMS RIGHT NOW ARE ON
THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR SO.
THE BIGGER STORY THIS PERIOD IS THE IMPENDING ARCTIC FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AND RESULTING COLD SNAP THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
PATTERN HAS ALL THE MARKINGS OF A SNOW SQUALL EVENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT EITHER...LIFTS AN EXISTING LAKE BAND OFF
LAKE ONTARIO AND DRIVES IT SOUTHWARD...OR TAPS INTO
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE PRIOR TO THE FROPA. MODEL SOUNDING
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND THE BTV SNOW SQUALL TOOL IS JUST AS IMPRESSIVE. WILL
INTRODUCE THIS SNOW SQUALL HAZARD INTO OUR HAZ WX OUTLOOK PRODUCT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO TRAVEL AS A RESULT OF QUICK
HITTING SNOWS AND POOR VSBYS.
SOME LAKE RESPONSE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT
ATMOSPHERE DOES BECOME SYNOPTICALLY MOISTURE STARVED AND COLDER
THAN THE DENDRITE PRODUCTION ZONE...SO ACCUMS MAY BE LIMITED.
BLUSTERY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR WILL NATURALLY COMBINE FOR
PROBLEMATIC WIND CHILLS...AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST VALUES DO
SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA WITH READINGS COLDER THAN 15 BELOW. A MARGINAL WIND
CHILL WARNING EXISTS FOR OUR NATURALLY COLDER EASTERN ZONES BY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...JUST ANOTHER ADDITION TO THE HAZ WX
OUTLOOK PRODUCT BUT FCST TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
WATCHES...WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.
TEMPS COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND FOLLOWED A
MULTI-MODEL BLEND ON TEMPS/DWPTS/WIND AND SKY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.
LOWERED THU NGT MIN TEMPS SINCE THU MAX TEMPS COLDER. ENTIRE
PERIOD COLDER THAN AVERAGE WITH LAKE EFFECT AND A CLIPPER FRIDAY
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND BETTER LAKE EFFECT
WILL STAY IN THE NORTHERN THREE COUNTIES INCLUDING SYR AND RME.
QUESTIONS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT CLIPPER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY SO FOR NOW HAVE A GENERIC 20 POP FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LFTG NWRD THRU RME ATTM. XPCT A CPL HRS OF
IFR AT RME FLWD BY VFR. ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME SCT LGT SNOW SHWRS
OFF THE TAIL END OF THE ERIE BAND AT THE NY STATIONS. VFR CONDS
WILL CONT INTO EARLY TUE WHEN A SHRT WV MVG THRU THE OH VLY BRINGS
WIDESPREAD MAINLY LGT SNOW TO THE REGION. MVFR CONDS SHD PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE SNOW WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF OCNL IFR CONDS
BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFT 18Z WITH A RETURN TO GNRL
VFR AND SCT SNOW SHWRS IN CAA BHD THE WV...THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT/WED...LAKE EFFECT -SHSN BRINGING RESTRICTIONS TO NY
TERMINALS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
THU...MAINLY VFR BUT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE KSYR-RME IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THU NGT/FRI/SAT...ANOTHER CLIPPER BRINGING RESTRICTIONS IN -SHSN
THU NGT WITH LAKE EFFECT -SHSN OVR NY TERMINALS FRI/SAT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/JAB/RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN/JAB/RRM
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1000 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2015
MOST FORECAST ASPECTS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. ANTICIPATE A BIT
STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN FA BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AND LIKELY FALLING TEMPERATURES. ALONG
WITH THIS STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE RAP INDICATES 925MB
WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 45 KNOTS. THIS WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY...AND/OR MORE THAN JUST PATCHY BLOWING
BLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY. WILL WATCH WIND SPEEDS UPSTREAM
AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED...BUT AT THIS POINT THAT SEEMS
LIKE AN UNLIKELY OUTCOME (MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT AS STRONG).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2015
CLOUD TRENDS HARD TO FIGURE OUT THIS MORNING WITH CIRRUS MASKING
THE LOWER CLOUDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BKN CLOUDS TODAY EAST OF
A LANGDON TO KGFK TO KPKD LINE AND MORE SCT CONDITIONS WEST OF
THIS LINE. ANYONE UNDER THE THICKER CLOUDS MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES.
TEMPS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO RISE UNDER THE CLOUDS. STATIONS UP
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER HAD RISEN TO ZERO AS OF 6AM WITH THE
COLDER READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ADJUSTED THE TEMP CURVE FOR
TODAY TO GO A LITTLE WARMER AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH. LOOKING
AT NEW WIND CHILL VALUES AFTER ADJUSTING THESE TEMPS SHOW WHAT
PREVIOUS GRIDS SHOWED...THERE COULD BE SOME TIMES WHEN TRUE WIND
CHILL CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET TODAY. ONE PORTION OF A COUNTY
COULD HAVE A WIND CHILL OF 28 BELOW WHILE ANOTHER IS 17 BELOW. ALL
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS. THEREFORE WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS IS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
SECONDLY IT WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS LATER TODAY AND AGAIN ON
THU/THU NIGHT. AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING THERE WAS A BAND OF CLOUD
COVER MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN FA. TEMPS HAD RISEN A BIT IN
THE CLOUDY AREA AND WERE COLDEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE
IT WAS CLEAR. WINDS WERE PRETTY STEADY FROM THE WEST TO SW KEEPING
WIND CHILLS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR TODAY EXPECT THE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH TO SLOWLY SINK TO THE SOUTH/SE. THERE HAVE BEEN
A FEW FLURRIES REPORTED IN SOUTHERN CANADA UNDER THESE CLOUDS AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE AS THESE CLOUDS SINK INTO THIS FA. UPPER WAVE
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH AND MOVE INTO THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP KEEP THESE FLURRIES AROUND. 925MB TEMPS
WILL START OUT THE DAY AROUND -20C IN THE NORTH AND WILL FALL TO
ABOUT -26C BY 00Z WED. 925MB WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL RISE TO
25 TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE EXPECT
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND PATCHES OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN
AREAS THAT HAVE SNOW COVER. THIS MAINLY BEING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. THE GUSTY WINDS ALSO MEAN THE FA WILL STAY IN WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR TODAY. THE SOUTHERN FA IS EXPECTED TO
RISE OUT OF CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AFTER
COORDINATING WITH BIS DECIDED TO JUST RUN THE ADVISORY FOR ALL
AREAS TODAY DESPITE THIS. AS TEMPS FALL AND WINDS STAY UP TONIGHT
WILL TRANSITION THE ADVISORY OVER TO A WIND CHILL WARNING IN ALL
AREAS. WILL EXTEND THIS OUT TO 18Z WED FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2015
QUIET BUT COLD CONTINUES UNTIL LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...WHEN
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE FA. NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOW BUT AROUND AN INCH OF LIGHT POWDERY SNOW
IS POSSIBLE. BIGGER CONCERN IS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THU/THU NIGHT. WITH FALLING SNOW THIS
TIME...THIS EVENT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN VSBY PROBLEMS DUE TO
BLSN. THESE WINDS WILL STAY UP INTO THU NIGHT.
FOR FRI THROUGH MON...IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATING. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL STILL BE COLD TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...AND TEMPS COULD BE COLDER THAN PROGGED
AT NIGHT IF IT IS CLEAR. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THOUGH WITH NO MAJOR
STORMS ON THE HORIZON...AND THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING EAST BY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2015
BROUGHT THE 5000-7000 FT CEILINGS TO KGFK/KTVF/KBJI AND ONLY WENT
SCT AT KDVL AND KFAR. THIS OF COURSE WILL BE MONITORED AND
ADJUSTED LATER IF NEED BE. GOOD THING IS THAT THESE ARE STILL IN
THE VFR RANGE SO NOT ESPECIALLY CRITICAL TODAY. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. BIGGER THING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. ALREADY SEEING A BIT
OF A JUMP AT KDVL BUT THE REAL GUSTINESS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND OR AFTER 18Z TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
LIKE PREVIOUS TAF SET...DID NOT MENTION ANY REDUCED VSBYS DUE TO
BLSN AT THIS POINT. IF WINDS GET A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
SOME REDUCTION COULD BE POSSIBLE...AND MAINLY AT KDVL AND KGFK.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR NDZ049-052-053.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ049-052-
053.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.
MN...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR MNZ029>032-040.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ029>032-
040.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027-028.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022>024-027-028.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
442 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON THURSDAY BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS HAVE BEEN CLIPPING THE SHORELINE FOR MOST
OF THE DAY SO STARTED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW FOR THE
LAKESHORE ZONES. BOTH THE HRRR AND 1000-850MB OMEGA BECOME FAIRLY
ENERGETIC AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WESTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT TIMES...THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AND THEN BECOME HEAVY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
BAND WILL COME CRASHING ONSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING INLAND. INLAND
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE SECONDARY SNOW BELT WILL NOT SEE
MUCH SNOW UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES SO DELAYED THE START TIME ON THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM. HEAVY BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE METRO CLEVELAND AREA FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE MAKING
TRAVEL DIFFICULT AND SLOW.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO 5-7
DEGREES OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT AND COMBINE WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO -15. THIS IS ON THE LOWER END
OF THE ADVISORY SPECTRUM...WITH THE COLDEST VALUES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MORNING WITH EXTREME LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE FRIGID AIRMASS
COMING OFF OF LAKE ERIE. SOME DISRUPTION TO THE LAKE EFFECT WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT BUT EXPECT BANDS TO DEVELOP
QUICKLY AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DOMINANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND COMING OFF
LAKE HURON. TODAYS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE STILL EXCITED ABOUT
THIS FEATURE BUT HAVE SHIFTED IT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST INTO ERIE
AND CRAWFORD PA. SNOWFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE THIS BAND SETS UP.
THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW LIES IN HOW
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS ATTEMPTS TO DRY OUT. MODELS SOUNDING INDICATE 800 J/KG OF
LAKE INDUCED CAPE COMBINED WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS HOLDING UP
AROUND 10K FEET. THE FORECAST CONTINUES SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SNOW SHOWERS START TO BREAK UP AND
DECREASE OUTSIDE OF THE DOMINANT BAND IF WE DRY OUT ENOUGH.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL AGGRAVATION ON
WEDNESDAY.
THE FLOW START TO BACK DURING THE EVENING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
TREND TO BE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME CONFINED TO THE SNOWBELT
AGAIN. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY WESTERLY BANDS THAT TRY TO
DEVELOP WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PEAKS.
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH WEST OHIO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AN AREA
OF WEST CENTRAL OHIO FROM FINDLAY TO MANSFIELD. AS TEMPERATURES
FALL TO 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THIS AREA AND COMBINE WITH THE
WIND...THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WIND CHILL
VALUES DROP BELOW -25 WHICH IS WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A WIND CHILL
WARNING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL ALSO NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO
THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE MODELS PROG ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THOUGH ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ALONG THE SNOWBELT AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND H850 TEMPS DROP OFF TO AROUND -20C.
ELSEWHERE THE SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SATURDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ALTHOUGH A CONTINUED WEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE
ONSHORE IN THE SNOWBELT. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE
MORNING AND DROP BACK TO 30-40% FOR THE AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY MODELS
TAKE A DIVERGENT PATH WITH THE ECMWF WARMER AND WETTER WHILE THE GFS
SHOWS COLDER AND MUCH DRIER. FOR NOW FOLLOWED WPS GUIDANCE WHICH
SHOWS FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLIPPER EXITING THE AREA WITH CLEARING MOVING INTO THE WEST HALF
OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT WESTERN TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS REMAINING EAST. AT
KERI...A LAKE EFFECT BAND HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA WITH LIFR.
THINKING THAT SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH A SHORT BREAK THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT SHOT OF LAKE
EFFECT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. FOR THE AFTER...AFTER
ABOUT 03-04Z MOISTURE AGAIN INCREASES FROM THE NORTH AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC BOUNDARY DUE IN AFTER 08Z. WINDS QUICKLY GO NNW AFTER THE
BOUNDARY AND EXPECT LAKE EFFECT WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR
KCLE KCAK KYNG AND KERI FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE IS NOW MOSTLY ICE COVERED. CANCELLED
THE SMALL CRAFT THERE DUE TO THE ICE. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WITHOUT CHANGE. WILL ISSUE A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
BEGINNING AT 3AM TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH 4PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS EARLY TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AS THE
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY WILL TURN HEAVY AS TEMPS FALL. ALSO LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL ALSO TURN HEAVY EAST HALF TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO UNDER A MILE. WINDS
WILL TURN WEST AND SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DECREASING WINDS AND
WAVES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ012-
089.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR OHZ013-014.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ010-011-020>023.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR OHZ003-006>009-018-019-031>033-038.
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ001.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR LEZ061-144>149-164>169.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
157 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER WILL BRING A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ARCTIC COLD WILL
GRIP THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBZERO WIND
CHILLS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHIELD OF STEADY LGT SNOW ASSOC WITH
APPROACHING ALBERTA CLIPPER ABOUT TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST PA AS
OF 06Z. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION AND LATEST RAP/HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD SOMERSET CO BY 08Z THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY
NEWRD...REACHING THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BTWN 09Z-12Z.
BLEND OF MDL GUIDANCE WITH HIGHEST WEIGHT TO LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS
SNOW AMTS BY 12Z RANGING FROM 2-3 INCHES OVR PARTS OF SOMERSET
CO...TO JUST A DUSTING EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER. THICKENING CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY MORE OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
BY DAWN RANGING THE SINGLE DIGITS OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE TEENS
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST TIMING SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL BE
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS THE WEAK SYSTEM SPEEDS OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. THE EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS A LOT MORE
FAVORABLE THAN THE MORNING COMMUTE.
DID SOME TWEAKING OF THE QPF/SNOWFALL TOTALS EXPECTED BASED ON
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS FOR OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT TO RESULT IN AMOUNTS BTWN 3-5 INCHES OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATION SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE LEAST OVER THE
NY BORDER COUNTIES...FURTHEST FROM TRACK OF CLIPPER. HAVE EXPANDED
WINT WX ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BASED AMTS
CLOSE TO CRITERIA AND ALSO IMPACT TO THE AM COMMUTE.
CLIMATOLOGY OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS IS FOR SNOW/WATER RATIOS CLOSE TO
20 TO 1...AND AN EXAMINATION OF MDL TIME SECTIONS SUPPORTS A DRY
AND FLUFFY SNOW...WITH BULK OF LIFT OCCURING WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS OVR THE NW MTNS TO MID
20S OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
VERY COLD NW FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR /-20 TO -25C AT 850MB/ OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE WRN
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS WED-WED NITE. VERY STEEP LOW-MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ENHANCE THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...WHICH SHOULD BE QUITE FLUFFY GIVEN VERY HIGH SNOW:LIQUID
RATIOS. BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNAL WWD WITH SUPPORT FROM
THEIR ROBUST MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLENDED PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL
GUIDANCE HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY IN THE PERENNIAL SNOWBELT REGION IN NW WARREN COUNTY TO
THE WEST OF RT219.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WINDS AND THE CORRESPONDING LAKE EFFECT SHOULD CUT OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TILT
POSITIVELY AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD BRING CLOSER
TO NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AND
WEAKER SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...THOUGH IT HAS
CONSIDERABLY LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT...SO ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY. AS THIS TROUGH LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST THE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT MORE TO THE SW DUE TO A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL IN
FAIR AGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
COLD...THOUGH SLOWLY WARMING. TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB TO NEAR TO
ABOVE FREEZING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH THICKENING HIGH-MID LEVEL
CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE AIRSPACE IN ADVANCE OF FAST MOVG
CLIPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE MID MS VLY.
THE CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING A QUICK-HITTING 6-9HR PERIOD OF SNOW
AND IFR CONDS TO THE REGION DURING THE PREDAWN AND MORNING HOURS
ON TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR SUGGESTS
A SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL TO THE SNOW THAN IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED
IN THE 00Z TAFS. THEREFORE WILL SPEED UP TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SNOW
WITH THE 03Z UPDATE. AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
REINVIGORATE LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WRN 1/3
OF THE AIRSPACE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR LKLY AT JST/BFD.
GUSTY 20-30KT WNW WINDS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE AIRSPACE. THE
COLD NW FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING REDUCED FLYING CONDS
TO THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...MVFR/IFR WITH -SHSN WEST. VFR/MVFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SAT...IMPROVING CONDS WITH -SHSN ENDING N/W.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ004-005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/RXR/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1110 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DROP WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE
AREA AS FORCING AND ATTENDANT SNOW HAS QUICKLY SHIFTED SOUTHEAST.
HAVE ALSO ADDED WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF BLOWING
SNOW TO THE GRIDS.
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS WIND CHILLS FALL TO 35 TO 40 BELOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AS A BROAD AREA
OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING OVER
ALL BUT FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSIFYING 700 MB FRONT AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING ENHANCED
RETURNS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA...ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL WITH WHERE MODEL PROGGED
FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO BE STRONGEST. EXPECT ENHANCEMENT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SLIDES
THROUGH OUR AREA. THE RAP DOES INDICATE SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY
ABOVE THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION FOR LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A NARROWER BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW THROUGH NORTHWESTERN IOWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR CURRENT
SNOWFALL GRIDS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THE RANGE OF
15 TO 25:1 IN A DEEPER DENDRITIC LAYER COULD RESULT IN HOURLY
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH TO 1 1/2 INCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FORCING BEGINS TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING. FORECASTED SNOWFALL
TOTALS STILL LOOKING AT JUST EITHER SIDE OF 6 INCHES ORIENTED FROM
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR THEN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA...TRENDING UPWARD TO AROUND 7 INCHES IN PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. BLOWING SNOW SHOULD ONLY BE A RELATIVELY MINOR
ISSUE WITH WINDS STAYING IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY END BY
MID EVENING AS FRONTAL FORCING WEAKENS AND THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST. IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. DO BEGIN TO SEE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET LATER TONIGHT...BUT ELECTED TO HOLD
OFF ON THAT UNTIL CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE.
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AS
THE NEXT CANADIAN WAVE BEGINS TO DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH. MOST OF
THE INCREASE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...AND
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES THERE WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC LIFT FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
SKIES WILL CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG AND THE
ARCTIC RESURGENCE POURS INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE WINTER SO FAR. WINDS BRINGING THIS SURGE WILL BE STRONG TO
CAUSE SOME BLOWING OF THE STILL FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL MENTION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE.
SKIES WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY CLEAR. HOWEVER THE BIG NEWS WILL BE
THE WIND CHILLS DIVING TO WARNING LEVELS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
EXCEPT TO ONLY ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
AREA. AFTER COORDINATION AND LOCAL INPUT...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ON THESE HIGHLIGHTS UNTIL THE CURRENT WARNING AND ADVISORY TONE
DOWN. HOWEVER...THOUGH IT WAS ALREADY BEEN COLD OF COURSE...THIS
IS GOING TO BE THE COLDEST SHOT OF THE WINTER SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A QUICK TURN TO WARMING...THOUGH IT WILL
GET TO THE SURFACE IN ONLY A VERY LIMITED MEASURE. A BAND OF WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA WITH THIS WARMING AND EXIT
AS THE NEXT COLD AIR SHOT ARRIVES. THE TRANSITORY NATURE OF THE
WARMING LEADS TO A MENTION OF ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL BE NOT AS COLD...MOSTLY TEENS ABOVE ZERO...AS DELAYED
MIXING FROM THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WARMING HELPS TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.
THE ACCOMPANYING COLD AIR REINFORCEMENT WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WIND
CHILL EVENT WITH A COLD DAY FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL THEN SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA WITH RELATIVELY MINOR WAVES AND BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT
AS FRIGID TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WILL
MENTION SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW CENTRAL AND SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH...WHICH SHOULD RULE WITH DRY WEATHER AND
MODESTLY COLD TEMPERATURES AS MENTIONED ABOVE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
ONLY PATCHY MVFR STRATUS IS MOVING THROUGH THE SIOUX FALLS
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CEILINGS
BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FEET AGL IMPACTED OUR TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. BUT IT SHOULD BE ISOLATED
ENOUGH THAT WE DID NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF IT TAFS EXCEPT FOR
AN HOUR AT KSUX RIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY SHOW
SOME 05Z OBS WITH CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 500 FEET IN THE HEART OF
NORTHWEST IOWA. HOWEVER THE SATELLITE IS CLEAR AND THAT IS LIKELY
ICE CRYSTALS. EXPECTING VFR ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ONCE AGAIN PATCHY TO AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS MAY ACCOMPANY THE NEW COLD AIR MASS...SO INCLUDED A
SCATTERED GROUP IN THE TAF SITES OF 2500 FEET AGL AS A HEDGE.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ038>040-
052>056-059>062-065>067-071.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ050-057-058-
063-064-068>070.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
081-089-090-097-098.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-032.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ031.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1139 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...
257 PM CST
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. THIS
IS FOLLOWED BY A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS AROUND ANOTHER COLD
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEFORE GETTING TO THE SNOW AND COLD...I WANTED TO MAKE A NOTE THAT
PARTNERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING ICE JAMS ON SEVERAL AREA RIVERS. WHILE
WE ARE NOT AWARE OF IMMINENT FLOODING PROBLEMS...CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT WHICH CAN RESULT IN RAPIDLY
FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
EARLIER IN THE SHIFT THE WIND CHILL WARNING WAS CONVERTED TO A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY.TEMPERATURES RECOVERED A BIT TODAY AND MOST LOCATIONS
ARE ABOVE ZERO. IN SPITE OF THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR BEING OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO LEVELS COLDER THAN LAST
NIGHT..AND THUS WIND CHILL READINGS WILL STILL BE VERY COLD. OUR
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW -30 FOR A LONG
PERIOD OF TIME...THE CURRENT WARNING CRITERIA...IS LOW...BUT HIGH
FOR -25 TO -30 WIND CHILLS. THEREFORE...WHILE COLDER WIND CHILLS
ARE POSSIBLE...AN ADVISORY SEEMS TO BETTER SERVE THE SITUATION.
DO NOT BE FOOLED...IT WILL STILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN TO
PROTECT YOURSELF OUTDOORS. HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN PORTER COUNTY
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO ABOUT AN
INCH OF SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED. THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW
THIS NEW SNOW AROUND AS WELL IN THESE AREAS...WITH PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW ELSEWHERE. 850-925 MB WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO MORE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AND THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SHIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF PORTER
COUNTY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE THE REGION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE ARE REALLY TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH...ONE WEAKER WAVE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND A STRONGER
WAVE WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THE FIRST WAVE ROLLS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER WAVE IN THE EVENING.
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
NORTH OF THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE BETTER SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
THIS ALSO WHERE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS...WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE
MORE FAVORED AREA FOR CLIPPER SNOWS. AHEAD OF THE MODEST SURFACE
LOW AND BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY...INITIALLY DRY AIR WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION...BUT MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. LOOKING ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH IN THE METRO AREA WITH BEST
CHANCES NORTH...WITH NEAR TWO INCHES POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
WISCONSIN BORDER IN LAKE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT OF AROUND 0.1 INCHES OF QPF NORTH...TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
FAR SOUTH. WHILE IT WILL BE A DRY SNOW...OMEGA IS BROAD NOT ALL
DENDRITIC GROWTH SNOW AS THERE ARE SOME WARMER LAYERS IN THE
COLUMN IN FROM 5K-10K FT. THEREFORE THINKING OF RATIOS OF ABOUT
13-15:1. WHILE THIS DOES NOT SOUND LIKE A BIG DEAL...THE SNOW WILL
FALL DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE. AND ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS WILL BE BLOWING AROUND WHICH WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY REDUCE SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT.
WILL HANDLE THIS WITH AN SPS.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
257 PM CST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THURSDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND
IT CREATING BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS AS ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE PLAINS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK TODAY`S SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE. BUT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH ANOTHER DUMP OF
BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS IS NOT AS COLD OF AIR AS WE ARE SEEING TODAY BUT PRETTY
CLOSE. WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT DROP TO -15 TO -20. BREEZY WEST
WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MAYBE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NOT RECOVERING A TON FROM
THESE VALUES. THE RIDGE THEN SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO DIP BACK
INTO THE -20 TO -25 RANGE.
BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL OVER THE MIDWEST
AS THE UPPER JET AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SHIFT THE COLD
CORE BACK NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTRY AND INTO CANADA.
WINDS EASE AND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY...BUMPING HIGHS SATURDAY INTO THE
TEENS SATURDAY AND EVEN THE TWENTIES ON SUNDAY...WITH A 30 POSSIBLE
FAR SOUTH. THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES TOWARDS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. WITH A WEAK WAVE TRANSLATING NORTH AND
EASTWARD IN A BROAD WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AT
THIS TIME WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS DEPENDS
ON THE STRENGTH OF A BUILDING SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AS TO
HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW...BUT THERE COULD BE A MIX FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT THE GFS SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE
ECMWF/GEM...SO HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING SETS UP BEYOND THIS TIME WITH THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW MIDWEEK.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* GUSTY SSW/SW WINDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY LEADING
TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE RIVER. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THURSDAY...AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME QUITE GUSTY PUSHING 30 KT AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO CATCH THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS...MAINLY FROM
EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITHIN THE SNOW...EXPECT VSBY
TO DROP INTO THE 1-2SM RANGE...THOUGH WITH STRONG WINDS STILL IN
PLACE THERE MAY BE PERIODS WHERE IT DROPS BELOW A MILE. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING TURNING
WINDS BACK TO THE WNW AND GENERALLY MARKING THE END OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM IN MAGNITUDE.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SNOW...LOW-MEDIUM ON IMPACTS
TO VIS/CIGS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND
MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
306 PM CST
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHEN GALES EASE TO POSSIBLY JUST BELOW GALE FORCE
THURSDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT DURATION
OF ANY POTENTIAL SUB-GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AND OPTED TO
RUN GALE WARNING THROUGH THE DURATION OF THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIGHTENING UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON THURSDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL
NOON THURSDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...11 AM
THURSDAY TO 9 PM FRIDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878...11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ868...11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM
FRIDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-
LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-
LMZ868...11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 11 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1104 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
Large area of Arctic high pressure centered over southwest
Missouri early this evening is expected to continue to drift to
our south overnight. This will bring winds around to the southwest
which should put a stop to the free-falling temps we have seen
this evening. In addition, the HRRR moisture profiles suggest an
increase in high level clouds from the northwest after midnight as
our next shortwave and attendant cold front approach our area for
late tomorrow. The surface high is far enough to our southwest to
allow the tighter pressure gradient to be across the north
overnight. So even though we will see the temperature decline slow
down later tonight, a wind of 5 to 10 mph with overnight lows of
10 to 15 below will create wind chills of 20 to 30 below zero
across the far north, with 15 to 25 below zero common elsewhere.
Have made some tweaks to the overnight lows across the north where
the early evening temperature decline has brought a couple of
sites within a few degrees of their expected overnight lows.
Otherwise, no other changes were required. Should have an updated
ZFP out by 845 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
Arctic high pressure continues to slide southeast into Missouri...
with cold temperatures remaining over the CWA this afternoon into
this evening. Northwest winds will stay breezy through the remainder
of the afternoon...decreasing around sunset. As the high pushes
southeastward...temperatures will bottom out over the northwest
counties slightly after midnight and will then begin to slowly rise
as winds shift to the southwest and a slightly warmer air mass
enters western portions of Illinois. Meanwhile...the colder air will
linger over northeastern portions of Illinois through the mid
morning. Decided to lean a little more towards temperatures not
going too cold overnight given the warmer 850mb temperatures moving
into the area. However...with snow cover and mostly clear skies
temperatures will still not have a problem dropping off overnight.
Wind chills have been updated for the overnight period due to
warming the minimum temperatures slightly. The warning and advisory
are still in place...since wind chills will range from around -15 to
-30. Some counties in the sw CWA were downgraded from a Warning to
an Advisory. Otherwise...temperatures slowly warming up will allow
the Warning and Advisory to expire in the tomorrow period.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
Next wave rotating through eastern North America trough is expected
to approach Illinois on Thursday which should allow southwest flow
to set up with resultant warm advection. By 00z Thursday Evening 850
mb temps are progged to warm 10-20C in 24 hours. However, with snow
cover over northern forecast area and increasing clouds highs should
remain below normal.
Next surge of cold air should blast in Thursday Night and Friday
behind the wave. Air behind this wave not quite as cold as the
current airmass, but some readings below zero Friday Morning in snow
covered areas seems like a good bet and with winds 10-20 mph progged
may have to consider another wind chill advisory across the north
once we make it through this ongoing cold event. Even A few flurries
may be possible with wave passage, but moisture is extremely limited
so do not expect any measurable snowfall.
Heights begin to build late Friday as flow transitions to more
zonal, temps should respond with a warming trend reaching near
seasonal normals by Sunday. Latest (12z) GFS has shifted more in
line with ECMWF in forecasting a southern stream wave producing
precip as far north as the forecast area Sunday Night and early
Monday. Earlier iterations of GFS kept moisture more limited with
this system and produced precip only as far northwest as the Ohio
River. Will trend a bit upward with PoPs with this system.
As for precip type, GFS (12z) forecasted thermal profile suggests an
area of mixed/freezing rain will be possible. For now will
broadbrush given the spread in GEFS solutions and wait for event to
become better delineated before being more specific. Colder air
should return following the system for midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
Forecast concerns this period include wind gusts on Thursday and
threat for snow flurries with another Arctic cold front late in
the day, especially across the north. VFR conditions expected thru
22z Thu and then the threat for MVFR cigs arrives along with some
flurries across the north with a cold front by evening. Until then,
some bkn-ovc cirrus arrives from northwest to southeast after 09z
tonight and continues into the morning hours. Winds currently out
of the west will back more into the southwest by morning and then
out of a south to southwest direction Thursday with speeds tonight
around 10 kts or less, and then increase to between 15 and 20 kts
by late Thu morning with some gusts of 20 to 30 kts possible by
afternoon. This will cause some blowing snow once again across the
north where the deeper snow cover was located. At this point, may
add some VCSH at PIA and BMI late tomorrow aftn and evening but
won`t go south of those two sites with this forecast issuance.
Southwest winds of 15 to 25 kts tomorrow evening with shift more
into a westerly direction after 01z at PIA and BMI and by 04z over
at CMI.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until Noon CST Thursday FOR ILZ036-040>042-
047>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
WIND CHILL WARNING until Noon CST Thursday FOR ILZ027>031-037-
038-043>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...ALW
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
337 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE TEMPERATURE
TREND AS THE WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS WELL AS THE STRATUS TO THE WEST THAT IS ADVECTING EASTWARD AND
FIGHTING MUCH DRIER AIR. THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS OF THE MOS AND
RAW MODEL FORECASTS SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AS WARM AS NEAR 50 DEGREES AROUND ELKHART WHERE
THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT WILL BE MOST MAGNIFIED. THE EFFECTS OF THE
SNOW FIELD IS PROBABLY EFFECTING THE NAM MODEL FAR TOO MUCH WITH
THE WIDESPREAD LOW 30S. A WEAK FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WILL EXIST ABOVE
THE 750 TO 700 MB LEVEL TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ALSO IN
PROXIMITY TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THE NAM
INDICATES SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH OF A SATURATED LAYER AND JUST
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR ICE PROBABILITY FOR AN ALL SNOW PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND UNDER A HALF INCH IN GENERAL. THE OBSERVED SINGLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL BE A GOOD
INDICATOR TO WHAT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO
FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. NORTHWESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW
AND 900MB TO 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 30S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW HIGHS OF AROUND 40 DEGREES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHERE IT
IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ON SUNDAY JUST SOUTH OF
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN MOVING THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND AS IT ENCOUNTERS WEAK
LIFT THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA
INTO TEXAS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL RETURN TO WESTERN
KANSAS AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ANOTHER, STRONGER, UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IF FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
FOR SNOW FALL ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS GIVEN THE
DEVELOPING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED EASTWARD MOVING STRATUS
THAT HAS EXTENDED TO A LINE FROM EAST OF SYRACUSE TO NEAR HUGOTON.
THE VFR STRATUS WILL LIKELY REACH GARDEN CITY IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS OF THIS TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD WITH LESS FORECASTER
CERTAINTY OF IMPACTING AT ALL AT HAYS AND DDC. THE HRRR MODEL 850 MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS TENDS TO SUPPORT THE TREND, HOWEVER IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 42 9 22 10 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 45 10 24 11 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 49 15 27 17 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 46 12 25 13 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 39 5 19 8 / 0 0 0 0
P28 40 9 23 8 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
331 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. BETWEEN THESE TOW FEATURES WAS A
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION,
PROMOTING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS NEBRASKA, WESTERN KANSAS
AND THE PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST LOCATIONS AT MIDNIGHT, TO
ABOUT THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE BY 2 AM. TEMPERATURES WERE WARMEST
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE A CANOPY OF STRATUS WAS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST COUNTIES...WESTWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND THE FRONT RANGE. DEW POINTS WERE INCREASING AS WELL
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE VERY DRY -5 TOP -9 VALUES THAT WERE
OBSERVED IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE TEMPERATURE
TREND AS THE WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS WELL AS THE STRATUS TO THE WEST THAT IS ADVECTING EASTWARD AND
FIGHTING MUCH DRIER AIR. THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS OF THE MOS AND
RAW MODEL FORECASTS SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AS WARM AS NEAR 50 DEGREES AROUND ELKHART WHERE
THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT WILL BE MOST MAGNIFIED. THE EFFECTS OF THE
SNOW FIELD IS PROBABLY EFFECTING THE NAM MODEL FAR TOO MUCH WITH
THE WIDESPREAD LOW 30S. A WEAK FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WILL EXIST ABOVE
THE 750 TO 700 MB LEVEL TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ALSO IN
PROXIMITY TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THE NAM
INDICATES SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH OF A SATURATED LAYER AND JUST
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR ICE PROBABILITY FOR AN ALL SNOW PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND UNDER A HALF INCH IN GENERAL. THE OBSERVED SINGLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL BE A GOOD
INDICATOR TO WHAT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY AND HELP PUSH ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO WESTERN KANSAS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS FRIDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S BY
AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGHING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, LEADING TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILDER HIGHS IN
THE 30S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY, ALLOWING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF YET
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS TO PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND PROBABLY INTO MONDAY, WITH
CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
SNOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE WEST. EACH MODEL AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS THAT
WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW FALLS. THIS SERIES OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL COME TO AN END MID NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES, WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING PROGRESSING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL ALLOW FOR AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED EASTWARD MOVING STRATUS
THAT HAS EXTENDED TO A LINE FROM EAST OF SYRACUSE TO NEAR HUGOTON.
THE VFR STRATUS WILL LIKELY REACH GARDEN CITY IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS OF THIS TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD WITH LESS FORECASTER
CERTAINTY OF IMPACTING AT ALL AT HAYS AND DDC. THE HRRR MODEL 850 MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS TENDS TO SUPPORT THE TREND, HOWEVER IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 42 9 22 10 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 45 10 24 11 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 49 15 27 17 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 46 12 25 13 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 39 5 19 8 / 0 0 0 0
P28 40 9 23 8 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1127 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
LOWERED MIN TEMPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE NW WI FA. WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE BORDERLINE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
WILL LEAVE HEADLINES IN PLACE. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
DUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING...BUT
MAY BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF AS THE CLOUDS ARRIVE. THIS MAY AFFECT THE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE FOR NOW BUT
WILL RE-ASSES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE
SNOW TO 11Z AND REDUCED THE COVERAGE TO JUST THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR CHANGES AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
MAIN CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM ARE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND SNOW
THURSDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST
REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLE TO REACH NEAR ZERO IN SOME
PLACES. THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE WIND CHILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THIS EVENING DOWN INTO THE -10 TO -15 RANGE.
WITH THE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH AND COORDINATION...WILL KEEP WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF DROPPING THE ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS EVENING SO THAT WILL BEAR MONITORING.
THE NEXT CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE SNOWFALL ON THURSDAY. A
FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF MN DURING THE DAY. WAA WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL BECOME STEADY
THEN SLOWLY RISE TOWARD SUNRISE. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN BY SUNRISE IN
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SPREAD EAST RAPIDLY.
IT WILL END ACROSS THE WESTERN BY 18Z...TWIN PORTS AND OUT OF THE WI
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z-02Z. SNOWFALL WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AND MAY CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK END TO ANY SNOW THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
SFC TROF MOVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ONE
LAST COLD SHOT OF THE WEEK. AND THIS NEXT SHOT LOOKS JUST AS
COLD...IF NOT COLDER...THAN THE LAST TWO WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS
WEEK. THE GFS HAS 8H TEMPS OF -32C COMING SOUTH...THE ECMWF AT -31C
WITH THE NAM WARMEST AT ABOUT -28C. THE PAST TWO COLD EPISODES HAVE
SEEN THE INL RADIOSONDE MEASURING -28C...SO AS AT LEAST AS COLD. AND
WITH THE FRESH SNOW WE EXPECT...STILL BRISK WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES...IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD. MAY NEED TO BUMP CURRENT
THURSDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS DOWN A FEW NOTCHES.
ONCE THIS LAST COLD SNAP EASES UP THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MUCH
MORE ZONAL...WHICH WILL GIVE US INCREASINGLY WARMER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
VFR UNTIL 12Z WHEN LIGHT SNOW BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. MVFR IS EXPECTED AS THE SNOW INTENSIFIES THROUGH 20Z. A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM NW TO SE FROM 18Z THROUGH
00Z/09. GUSTY NW SFC WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -5 8 -12 -1 / 0 80 20 0
INL -8 6 -17 -4 / 0 80 20 10
BRD -6 10 -11 0 / 10 80 0 0
HYR -7 8 -11 -1 / 0 80 30 0
ASX -5 10 -7 1 / 0 80 50 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1113 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WAS TIMING A CLIPPER INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWING SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONCERNS THU
AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT.
FOR THE SNOW...MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH A WNW-ESE ORIENTED
BAND OF SNOW WITH TOTAL QPF OF AROUND 0.15 FALLING. WHERE THEY STILL
DISAGREE IS HOW FAR NORTH/SOUTH THAT BAND WILL BE. COMPARING
RUN-TOTAL QPFS THRU 12Z THU FROM VARIOUS MODELS TO WHAT THE RAP HAS
THROUGH THAT TIME /WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY THE END OF IT FORECAST
PERIOD/...IT INDICATES THE ECMWF IS RUNNING A LITTLE SLOW AND
NORTH...WHILE THE GEM IS FAST AND SOUTH. IN BETWEEN...AND MATCHING
UP WELL WITH WHAT THE RAP HAS THRU 12Z THU WERE THE SREF AND
NAM...SO BLENDED THE QPF FORECAST THAT DIRECTION...RESULTING IN
0.1-0.15" MELTED PRECIP BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...WHICH
RESULTED IN A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
UNLIKE SUNDAY NIGHTS SNOW WHEN ALMOST OUR ENTIRE PROFILE WAS COLDER
THAN -20C...RESULTING IN SNOW RATION CLOSER TO 10:1...PROFILES WITH
THIS SNOW ARE WARMER...WITH DEEPER SECTIONS IN THE ATMO GETTING INTO
THE FAVORED DGZ. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SNOW RATIOS UP MORE IN THE
16-19:1 RANGE...WHICH TRANSLATES TO A GOOD 1-3...MAYBE 4 INCHES
WITHIN THE HEAVIEST QPF SWATH. AMOUNTS WILL TAIL OFF PRETTY QUICK SW
OF I-94...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A LITTLE
BIT OF SNOW...WHICH WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR THU AFTN/NIGHT FOR WHEN
THE STRONG NW WINDS ARRIVE.
AS FOR THE WINDS...NOT MUCH CHANGED WITH THE GOING FORECAST. WE
STILL LOOK TO GET INTO STRONG CAA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO ABOVE 900 MB. NAM SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOW A SOLID 8-10 HOURS OUT AT RWF/FRM WHERE MIX DOWN WINDS ARE 35
KTS IN THE MID CHANNEL...WITH 45 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
CHANNEL...WHICH SHOULD EASILY TRANSLATE INTO FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 40
MPH. FOR BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARD ISSUES...THE BIG QUESTION WHERE AND
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. FOR THE AREA WITH THE BLIZZARD WATCH...A QUICK
TOUR OF ROADSIDE CAMERAS ACROSS THAT AREA SHOWED A SNOW PACK THAT
HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD IN THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND WILL
NEED SOME FRESH SNOW TO GET SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW ISSUES GOING.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE BLIZZARD WATCH AREA ALSO LOOKS TO BE THE PART OF
THE MPX CWA THAT SEES THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW...SO THE QUESTION
IS...IS A HALF INCH OF FRESH SNOW ENOUGH TO CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES THAT ARE STILL IN PLACE...LEFT
THE BLIZZARD WATCH IN PLACE...BUT RIGHT NOW...WOULD PLACE THE ODDS
AT NEEDING AN WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR BLOWING SNOW BEING HIGHER THAN
SEEING IT UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. WITH THAT SAID...THE GEM
SHOWS ALMOST OUR ENTIRE CWA GETTING 2 INCHES OF SNOW...AND IF THAT
WERE TO HAPPEN...THEN A BLIZZARD WARNING WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
WHERE THE WATCH CURRENTLY IS.
OUTSIDE OF THE BLIZZARD WATCH...WE WILL LIKELY NEED AN ADVY FOR
BLOWING SNOW AS WELL...AS ALTHOUGH THE MEAGER SNOW CURRENTLY ON THE
GROUND IN CENTRAL MN IS NOT GOING TO CREATE BLSN ISSUES...A FRESH
INCH OF POWDER WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN BLOWING
SNOW...THOUGH THE LACK OF EXISTING SNOW COVER SHOULD KEEP
VISIBILITIES IN CHECK. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A ISSUING AN
ADVY AT THIS TIME UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDEL ON EXACTLY WHERE AND
HOW MUCH SNOW WE WILL SEE ACROSS MN. FOR ERN MN AND WRN WI...AN ADVY
SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED AS ONE...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT GET TO OUR
ADVY CRITERIA...WHILE LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD TO FEWER ISSUES WITH
BLOWING SNOW.
OF COURSE WE CAN NOT FORGET THAT WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND
ZERO...WE ARE STILL SEEING WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -20F AND -30F.
HOWEVER...LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO COME BY 3Z IN WC MN AND 6Z IN WC WI
AS THE COMBINATION OF WINDS TURNING TO THE SW AND BRINGING IN WAA
ALONG WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE NW WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR
RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER 3Z/6Z. THESE RISING TEMPERATURES EXPLAIN
WHY WC AND CENTRAL MN WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WIND CHILL ADVY AS WIND
CHILL VALUES THERE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW...AS THIS
WILL BE THE "WARMEST" PART OF THE MPX CWA FOR ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
FRIDAY/S THERMAL PROFILE IS COMPARABLE TO TODAY/S 92H/85H TEMPS...OR
A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THIS BASICALLY TRANSLATES TO MORNING LOWS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE ADDED NEW
SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WIND SPDS WILL ALSO BE
SIMILAR WITH 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST SFC
TEMPS/WIND SPD...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE CLOSE AGAIN TO WARNING
CRITERIA WHICH IS -35F OR LOWER FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE THAT COULD BE A HIGH END WIND CHILL ADVISORY BASED
ON THIS MORNING VALUES.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
GRADUAL BREAK DOWN ON THE MEAN TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PART OF NORTH
AMERICA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE
ACROSS NE CANADA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
POSSIBLY ZONAL FLOW BY LATE NEXT WEEK IN OUR REGION. NO MAJOR
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST.
SOME OF THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALY OF 85H/50H HEIGHTS/TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ALSO INDICATE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPS SLOWLY RISE FROM NEAR ZERO ON FRIDAY...TO THE TEENS
AND 20S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND OF
THE EC/GFS MEAN 85H TEMPS AND THICKNESS VALUES OF THE 100-50H...DOES
SHOW NEAR FREEZING SFC TEMPS OR ABV FREEZING BY LATE NEXT WEEK...AND
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THIS AGAIN IS BASED ON THE SLOW
TRANSITION OF THE MEAN TROUGH...TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE STRONG DEVELOPMENT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR OF THE
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR CIGS AND SNOW
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. THIS WILL BE A
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 35 TO 40KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN MN. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AT
ALL SITES.
KMSP...
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STILL START AROUND 13Z. THE SNOW WILL BE
HEAVIEST DURING THE LATE MORNING...WITH AROUND 1 TO 2" OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUST IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 35KTS CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS WNW AT 15G25 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ053-060>070-
073>078-082>085-091>093.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ064-065-067-073>076-082>085-091>093.
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PENDLETON OR
939 PM PST WED JAN 7 2015
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...A QUIET NIGHT IS UNDERWAY OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
CONTINUED TO BUILD AND THIS HAS HELPED DEVELOP AN INVERSION OVER THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. AFTER PARTIAL CLEARING AND
IMPROVED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS RETURNED
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. HIGHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS ELLENSBURG, YAKIMA,
WALLA WALLA, PENDLETON AND HERMISTON HAVE DROPPED TO A HALF MILE
VISIBILITY OR LESS WHILE THE TRI-CITIES AND THE DALLES HAVE LOW
OVERCAST AT AROUND 1000 FEET. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENTS, EXPECT THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID
TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG MOVING
SOUTH FROM THE COLUMBIA GORGE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION AND HAVE PATTERNED THE UPDATE ON THAT. HAVE ADJUSTED A FEW
TEMPERATURES BOTH UP AND DOWN TO REFLECT THE EARLY EVENING TRENDS.
FORECAST UPDATE ALREADY OUT. PERRY
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAVE RETURNED TO THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS AND WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT KRDM AND KBDN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KYKM, KALW AND KPDT HAVE
ALL DROPPED TO 1/4SM WITH CIGS OF 100-200 FEET AND EXPECT THAT WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY BRIEF MINOR IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 19Z-20Z TOMORROW
WHEN CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO IFR LEVELS BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN
AGAIN AFTER 00Z. KPSC AND KDLS WILL HAVE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KRDM AND KBDN THROUGH
02Z TOMORROW EVENING WHEN LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH AND LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 400 PM PST WED JAN 7 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO CLAMP AN INVERSION DOWN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
BENEATH THE INVERSION. THE FOG WILL PRODUCE SOME POOR VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT SO WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.
ABOVE THE INVERSION SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND WEAKEN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH SPREADING MORE
CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS A SECOND SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH A BETTER SURGE
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT PACIFIC MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVEL 3000
TO 4000 FT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND 4000
TO 5000 FT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH DYNAMIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SNOW LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE 2000 TO 3500 FEET ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND 2500 TO 4500 FT IN EASTERN
OREGON WITH THE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS IN CENTRAL OREGON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL GIVE A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS, THE STRAWBERRY MOUNTAINS
AND THE ELKHORN MOUNTAINS. THE SHORT WAVE EXITS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A VERY STRONG RIDGE
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INLAND OVER THE INTERIOR
PACIFIC NORTHWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN OF PATCHY FOG IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN. POLAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 29 36 31 35 / 10 10 0 10
ALW 31 37 31 36 / 10 10 0 10
PSC 32 40 32 38 / 10 10 0 10
YKM 30 37 30 36 / 10 10 0 10
HRI 32 40 30 38 / 10 10 0 10
ELN 30 37 30 35 / 10 10 0 10
RDM 27 47 28 37 / 0 0 0 10
LGD 30 46 32 39 / 0 0 0 10
GCD 31 47 31 42 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 34 42 35 40 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST THURSDAY
ORZ041-044-507-508-510.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST THURSDAY WAZ024-026>029-521.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
83/99/83
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
830 PM PST WED JAN 7 2015
.UPDATE...A QUIET NIGHT IS UNDERWAY OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
CONTINUED TO BUILD AND THIS HAS HELPED DEVELOP AN INVERSION OVER THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. AFTER PARTIAL CLEARING AND
IMPROVED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS RETURNED
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. HIGHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS ELLENSBURG, YAKIMA,
WALLA WALLA, PENDLETON AND HERMISTON HAVE DROPPED TO A HALF MILE
VISIBILITY OR LESS WHILE THE TRI-CITIES AND THE DALLES HAVE LOW
OVERCAST AT AROUND 1000 FEET. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENTS, EXPECT THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID
TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG MOVING
SOUTH FROM THE COLUMBIA GORGE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION AND HAVE PATTERNED THE UPDATE ON THAT. HAVE ADJUSTED A FEW
TEMPERATURES BOTH UP AND DOWN TO REFLECT THE EARLY EVENING TRENDS.
FORECAST UPDATE ALREADY OUT. PERRY
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 400 PM PST WED JAN 7 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO CLAMP AN INVERSION DOWN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
BENEATH THE INVERSION. THE FOG WILL PRODUCE SOME POOR VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT SO WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.
ABOVE THE INVERSION SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND WEAKEN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH SPREADING MORE
CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS A SECOND SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH A BETTER SURGE
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT PACIFIC MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVEL 3000
TO 4000 FT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND 4000
TO 5000 FT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH DYNAMIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SNOW LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE 2000 TO 3500 FEET ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND 2500 TO 4500 FT IN EASTERN
OREGON WITH THE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS IN CENTRAL OREGON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL GIVE A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS, THE STRAWBERRY MOUNTAINS
AND THE ELKHORN MOUNTAINS. THE SHORT WAVE EXITS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A VERY STRONG RIDGE
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INLAND OVER THE INTERIOR
PACIFIC NORTHWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN OF PATCHY FOG IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN. POLAN
AVIATION...00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT KBDN AND KRDM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ELSEWHERE AREAS
OF IFR AND SOME LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND
FOG.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 2340Z THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AREAS
OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
OREGON/WASHINGTON AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER YAKIMA VALLEY SOUTH OF
UNION GAP AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER WEST OF BOARDMAN AND IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. DOWNSLOPE WIND THIS AFTERNOON ERODED
AND EVAPORATED THE BOUNDARIES OF THE STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH FACING
SLOPES OF THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
THIS EVENING, WITHIN 2 TO 4 HOURS OF SUNDOWN, THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN TERMS OF INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE AND
WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY. AS SUCH
WIDESPREAD IFR AND SOME LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR AT KDLS, KYKM,
KPSC, KALW AND KPDT DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THESE TAF SITES THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POLAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 29 36 31 35 / 10 10 0 10
ALW 31 37 31 36 / 10 10 0 10
PSC 32 40 32 38 / 10 10 0 10
YKM 30 37 30 36 / 10 10 0 10
HRI 32 40 30 38 / 10 10 0 10
ELN 30 37 30 35 / 10 10 0 10
RDM 27 47 28 37 / 0 0 0 10
LGD 30 46 32 39 / 0 0 0 10
GCD 31 47 31 42 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 34 42 35 40 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST THURSDAY
ORZ041-044-507-508-510.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST THURSDAY WAZ024-026>029-521.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
83/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1140 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Cloud deck has been eroding very slowly from e to w and is finally
near MAF. Based on slower erosion have extended the duration of low
clouds a few more hrs into Thur AM. Lower dwpnts continue to move
into the area and thus fog concerns are diminished at TAF sites. SE
winds Thur then NW Thur evening ahead of yet another Arctic surge.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2015/
UPDATE...
We have extended the freezing fog advisory to 8:00 AM CST/7:00 AM
MST. Derived RUC sounding data also suggests that the freezing fog
and light freezing drizzle could extend into Culberson
County...towards the I20/I10 split. Thus, we have added Culberson
County to the advisory as well. We will be making some slight
adjustments to the overnight low temperatures as some areas have
began to lose some of their low clouds...especially over the
northern portions of the Permian Basin and over the Rolling
Plains.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2015/
UPDATE...
The High Wind Warning and the Wind Advisory have been allowed to
expire as wind speeds associated with the cold front moving
through the area have decreased to below key thresholds. The
Freezing Fog Advisory remains in effect for the Guadalupe
Mountains and for Eddy County until 10 pm MST. Conditions will be
evaluated over the next hour to determine if this advisory needs
to be extended a few hours. Drier air has moved into the eastern
portions of Eddy County. This drier air would certainly suggests
an end of the freezing precipitation if is continues to move
farther westward and southward into the area.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A broad upper level trough is over the eastern half of the conus
while upper ridging is over the western conus with an upper low just
off the coast of Mexico south of California. The cold front has
made it through most of the CWA this afternoon with gusty northeast
winds behind it. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe
Mountains with a Wind Advisory in effect for the Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor area 8 pm MST. Other locations are expected to
be close to advisory level criteria. There is a chance of patchy
light drizzle or freezing drizzle this afternoon and evening across
parts of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe and Davis and Apache
Mountains, the Upper Trans Pecos, and the Van Horn area.
Temperatures today will not get above the 30s for the Permian Basin
with some locations not getting above freezing. Strong winds this
afternoon and early evening will allow for wind chills to get down
into the teens and 20s for many locations. Temperatures tonight
will plummet into the teens and 20s for the CWA except along the Rio
Grande where temperatures will be in the low 30s.
As the surface high moves east, surface winds will become
southwesterly on Thursday causing temperatures to warm up into the
40s and 50s across the area. The upper low over the coast of Mexico
will meander toward the region bringing in mid-level moisture.
Precipitation may develop across the Big Bend area on Thursday as a
result. The precipitation type will depend on how warm temperatures
get. The precipitation may initially start out as freezing rain
possibly followed by rain as the temperatures warm up during the
afternoon.
A shortwave/trough will move around the broad upper trough across
the eastern conus and Upper Midwest bringing a cold front into the
area Thursday night/Friday morning. Precipitation will be possible
along and behind this front. The precipitation type will likely
start out as a freezing rain/sleet mixture as the NAM forecast
soundings are indicating an elevated warm layer. Then the
precipitation will possibly change over to snow as temperatures
throughout the column of air cool to below freezing. Afternoon
temperatures on Friday will cool to near or below freezing for many
locations in the CWA. At this time, any frozen precipitation
amounts appear to be very light. As the upper low moves near the
Rio Grande, precipitation amounts will increase across areas mainly
south of the Pecos River beginning Friday night/Saturday morning
with the Big Bend area appearing to receive the greatest amount of
precipitation. Temperatures in this area will be near or below
freezing, so a wintry mix is likely. The precipitation may move
northward across the Lower Trans Pecos and the southern Permian
Basin Saturday afternoon as the upper low moves over the area.
Temperatures across these areas will likely warm up into the mid to
upper 30s as surface winds become southerly so precipitation will
likely be in the form of rain with a wintry mix possible in the
higher elevations of the Davis and Chisos Mountains.
The models show various troughs moving toward the region starting
next week with another cold front moving through the area next
Monday. The GFS and ECMWF show different solutions so do not have
much confidence in the extended part of the forecast. Both models
show precipitation across the area next week with more wintry
precipitation possible but don`t have much confidence in placement,
timing, or precipitation type at this time.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM MST Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
County.
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ Thursday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor.
&&
$$
44
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1047 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2015
.UPDATE...
We have extended the freezing fog advisory to 8:00 AM CST/7:00 AM
MST. Derived RUC sounding data also suggests that the freezing fog
and light freezing drizzle could extend into Culberson
County...towards the I20/I10 split. Thus, we have added Culberson
County to the advisory as well. We will be making some slight
adjustments to the overnight low temperatures as some areas have
began to lose some of their low clouds...especially over the
northern portions of the Permian Basin and over the Rolling
Plains.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2015/
UPDATE...
The High Wind Warning and the Wind Advisory have been allowed to
expire as wind speeds associated with the cold front moving
through the area have decreased to below key thresholds. The
Freezing Fog Advisory remains in effect for the Guadalupe
Mountains and for Eddy County until 10 pm MST. Conditions will be
evaluated over the next hour to determine if this advisory needs
to be extended a few hours. Drier air has moved into the eastern
portions of Eddy County. This drier air would certainly suggests
an end of the freezing precipitation if is continues to move
farther westward and southward into the area.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A broad upper level trough is over the eastern half of the conus
while upper ridging is over the western conus with an upper low just
off the coast of Mexico south of California. The cold front has
made it through most of the CWA this afternoon with gusty northeast
winds behind it. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe
Mountains with a Wind Advisory in effect for the Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor area 8 pm MST. Other locations are expected to
be close to advisory level criteria. There is a chance of patchy
light drizzle or freezing drizzle this afternoon and evening across
parts of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe and Davis and Apache
Mountains, the Upper Trans Pecos, and the Van Horn area.
Temperatures today will not get above the 30s for the Permian Basin
with some locations not getting above freezing. Strong winds this
afternoon and early evening will allow for wind chills to get down
into the teens and 20s for many locations. Temperatures tonight
will plummet into the teens and 20s for the CWA except along the Rio
Grande where temperatures will be in the low 30s.
As the surface high moves east, surface winds will become
southwesterly on Thursday causing temperatures to warm up into the
40s and 50s across the area. The upper low over the coast of Mexico
will meander toward the region bringing in mid-level moisture.
Precipitation may develop across the Big Bend area on Thursday as a
result. The precipitation type will depend on how warm temperatures
get. The precipitation may initially start out as freezing rain
possibly followed by rain as the temperatures warm up during the
afternoon.
A shortwave/trough will move around the broad upper trough across
the eastern conus and Upper Midwest bringing a cold front into the
area Thursday night/Friday morning. Precipitation will be possible
along and behind this front. The precipitation type will likely
start out as a freezing rain/sleet mixture as the NAM forecast
soundings are indicating an elevated warm layer. Then the
precipitation will possibly change over to snow as temperatures
throughout the column of air cool to below freezing. Afternoon
temperatures on Friday will cool to near or below freezing for many
locations in the CWA. At this time, any frozen precipitation
amounts appear to be very light. As the upper low moves near the
Rio Grande, precipitation amounts will increase across areas mainly
south of the Pecos River beginning Friday night/Saturday morning
with the Big Bend area appearing to receive the greatest amount of
precipitation. Temperatures in this area will be near or below
freezing, so a wintry mix is likely. The precipitation may move
northward across the Lower Trans Pecos and the southern Permian
Basin Saturday afternoon as the upper low moves over the area.
Temperatures across these areas will likely warm up into the mid to
upper 30s as surface winds become southerly so precipitation will
likely be in the form of rain with a wintry mix possible in the
higher elevations of the Davis and Chisos Mountains.
The models show various troughs moving toward the region starting
next week with another cold front moving through the area next
Monday. The GFS and ECMWF show different solutions so do not have
much confidence in the extended part of the forecast. Both models
show precipitation across the area next week with more wintry
precipitation possible but don`t have much confidence in placement,
timing, or precipitation type at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 17 43 23 30 / 10 10 20 10
BIG SPRING TX 17 44 23 30 / 10 10 20 20
CARLSBAD NM 22 47 29 33 / 10 10 20 20
DRYDEN TX 26 43 31 39 / 10 10 10 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 22 49 28 35 / 10 10 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 18 42 27 30 / 10 10 10 20
HOBBS NM 19 43 22 30 / 10 10 20 10
MARFA TX 16 47 26 33 / 10 10 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 17 43 24 30 / 10 10 20 20
ODESSA TX 18 43 24 30 / 10 10 20 20
WINK TX 21 45 29 33 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM MST Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
County.
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ Thursday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor.
&&
$$
49/03
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
307 AM PST THU JAN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WARM AND DRY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR
AREAS OF LATE NIGHT TO MORNING FOG ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH CLOUDS...
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND EVEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGH THE
VALLEY...NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY AND BETWEEN
10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF JANUARY.
IN ADDITION TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL BRING PATCHY DENSE FOG TO GENERALLY THE WEST AND
CENTRAL PART OF THE VALLEY. AS OF 2 AM...VISIBILITIES RANGED FROM
3/4 OF A MILE IN HANFORD TO 3 MILES IN MERCED. THE HRRR INDICATES
THAT VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING AROUND 10 AM.
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY MORNING...AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE A SUBTLE COOLING
TREND...WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA
NEVADA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH
IMPACTS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IMPACTING THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 7500 TO 8000 FEET...WITH JUST A TRACE OF SNOWFALL FORECAST
FOR THE SIERRA CREST. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT ADDED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE CREST...THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MARGINAL AMOUNT
OF MU CAPE...IN THE 100 J/KG RANGE. IF THESE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO
DEVELOP...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE SIERRA CREST
TO RECEIVE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT
LEAST SOME RAIN/SNOW ACTIVITY OVER THE CREST AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH RES ARW, HIGH RES NMM, NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF
ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS.
BY SUNDAY...A FEW OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH INTO KERN COUNTY FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...IMPACTING
AS FAR NORTH AS TULARE COUNTY. FOR THIS TIME FRAME NCEPS ENSEMBLE
MEAN IS SHOWING MEDIUM PREDICTABILITY WITH THE NAFES PROBABILITY
OF MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION TRENDING HIGHER OVER THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND UPDATE
THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION MONDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN OF
DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH PATCHES OF LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 17Z THURSDAY...AND AGAIN AFTER 08Z
FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...VFR/MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO HAZE
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
.END..
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY JANUARY 8 2015... UNHEALTHY IN KERN AND KINGS
COUNTIES. UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... MADERA...
MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KINGS... MADERA...
MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. NO BURNING FOR ALL IN KERN COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 01-08 72:1911 37:1968 53:1953 22:1888
KFAT 01-09 70:1953 39:1947 56:1995 23:1949
KFAT 01-10 68:1959 38:1947 54:1936 18:1949
KBFL 01-08 74:1953 36:1947 53:1941 19:1913
KBFL 01-09 73:2004 39:1937 56:1970 21:1937
KBFL 01-10 71:2012 38:1972 55:1959 21:1937
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
507 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE TEMPERATURE
TREND AS THE WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS WELL AS THE STRATUS TO THE WEST THAT IS ADVECTING EASTWARD AND
FIGHTING MUCH DRIER AIR. THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS OF THE MOS AND
RAW MODEL FORECASTS SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AS WARM AS NEAR 50 DEGREES AROUND ELKHART WHERE
THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT WILL BE MOST MAGNIFIED. THE EFFECTS OF THE
SNOW FIELD IS PROBABLY EFFECTING THE NAM MODEL FAR TOO MUCH WITH
THE WIDESPREAD LOW 30S. A WEAK FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WILL EXIST ABOVE
THE 750 TO 700 MB LEVEL TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ALSO IN
PROXIMITY TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THE NAM
INDICATES SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH OF A SATURATED LAYER AND JUST
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR ICE PROBABILITY FOR AN ALL SNOW PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND UNDER A HALF INCH IN GENERAL. THE OBSERVED SINGLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL BE A GOOD
INDICATOR TO WHAT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO
FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. NORTHWESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW
AND 900MB TO 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 30S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW HIGHS OF AROUND 40 DEGREES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHERE IT
IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ON SUNDAY JUST SOUTH OF
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN MOVING THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND AS IT ENCOUNTERS WEAK
LIFT THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA
INTO TEXAS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL RETURN TO WESTERN
KANSAS AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ANOTHER, STRONGER, UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IF FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
FOR SNOW FALL ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS GIVEN THE
DEVELOPING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY. AS THIS
FRONT PASSES THE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST. 06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MEAN MIXED LAYER
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THAT THE
NAM, ARW AND NMM WERE ALL IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE LATEST NAM FOR FROPA AT HAY AND GCK AROUND
18Z AND DDC AROUND 21Z. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY, HOWEVER THE NAM DOES INDICATE THAT THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL SATURATE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME THE NAM
WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOWER LEVEL SATURATING EARLY THIS
EVENING SO WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION BUT WILL NOT GO AS LOW AS
WHAT THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 42 9 22 10 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 45 10 24 11 / 0 10 0 0
EHA 49 15 27 17 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 46 12 25 13 / 0 10 0 0
HYS 39 5 19 8 / 0 0 0 0
P28 40 9 23 8 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
.AVIATION...
A BROKEN DECK OF LOW MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS HAS SPREAD BACK INTO BOTH
KLBB AND KPVW THIS MORNING...AFTER THE EARLIER 4000 FOOT AGL LAYER
BROKE AWAY AND DIMINISHED TO THE NORTHEAST. LATEST HRRR SHORT TERM
CEILING FORECASTS GIVE A REASONABLE SOLUTION MAINTAINING A DECK IN
THE VICINITY BOTH OF KPVW AND KLBB UNTIL 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE LAYER
FINALLY DISSIPATES. THE HRRR DOES NOT APPEAR TO THREATEN KCDS WITH
THIS LAYER. SO WE WILL HOLD ON TO AN APPROXIMATE 1600-1700 FOOT
AGL LAYER AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW EARLY...WITH VFR DOMINATING
THEREAFTER. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MUCH OF TODAY WILL EASE LATER
IN THE DAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES JUST IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLICE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. WE RETAINED PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES
STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS. THERE ALSO IS A LOW
RISK OF CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BY THE END OF THE TAF...
BUT BELOW MENTIONABLE LIMITS FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015/
SHORT TERM...
A CONSIDERABLY WARMER...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. STILL SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR AND MOISTURE TO
SCOUR OUT EARLY TODAY...BUT END RESULTS SHOULD FAVOR THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS HELPING TO MAXIMIZE
DOWNSLOPE EFFECT. WE HAVE TRENDED WARMER...NOT DISSIMILAR TO THE
PAST TWO WARM DAYS THIS WEEK MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO OVERPLAY SNOW COVER ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND PROBABLY PART OF
THE REASON WARMING IS UNDERDONE. NOT THAT COLD AIR WILL BE FAR
AWAY HOWEVER...AS YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHALLOW COLD FRONTS
WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...AND PROBABLY EVEN ENTER OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...MUCH COLDER AIR
ONCE MORE WILL INVADE THIS EVENING. THIS ALSO WILL LEAD TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTENING AGAIN OVERNIGHT FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES...THOUGH RECENT SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER OR FURTHER
SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. LIKEWISE...WE
HAVE TRENDED MENTION OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS EITHER OR BOTH
LATER AND FURTHER SOUTH. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY CONTINUE TO DWINDLE
WITH TRENDS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A QUICKER PUNCH OF DRY AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY
PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL ATTEMPT TO SUPPLY AN
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER MOISTURE...POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO GENERATE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IF SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES CAN TAKE
PLACE. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL BE IN PLAY SOMETIME EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT...BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE IF
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL EXISTS TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE
THAN VIRGA. LIFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS NEARER THE UPPER LOW AND ANY LINGERING
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. COULD STILL SEE SOME FLURRIES MAKE THEIR
WAY TO THE GROUND FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE ANOTHER DIVE AFTER A WARMER THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT GET
ABOVE FREEZING IF LOW STRATUS BREAKS BY MID MORNING.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE SHAPE INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE FILLING
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM MEXICO...COMBINING WITH VEERING
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE ALOFT...DRY WEATHER STILL
APPEARS IN THE OFFING THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE WEEKEND WITH
THE BRUNT OF THE RESULTING LIFT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH A WARMUP WILL BE IN STORE COMPARED TO FRIDAY...CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND WINDS SOURCING SOME REMAINING
COOL AIR LEFT BEHIND BY THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PUT A
DAMPER ON IT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40. SUNDAY ON THE
OTHER HAND LOOKS TO PROMISE A RETURN TO JUST BELOW NORMAL READINGS
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS
AND LIKELY GREATER INSOLATION ARE REALIZED.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER COOLDOWN TO THE SOUTH PLAINS. AN UPPER
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND UPPER GREAT
BASIN WILL SPELL THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING AND EXTENDING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE. THE USUALLY QUICKER
GFS IN THIS TIME PERIOD HAS BEGUN TO PICK UP THE PACE...MESHING WITH
THE FACT THAT EACH SOLUTION HAS BEEN EXHIBITING AN INCREASE IN
STRENGTH AND COUPLING OF BOTH THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS IN
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE COLD AIR FROM THE
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK PLUNGE LIKELY REMAINING IN PLACE...WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW WHILE INCLUDING A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 47 16 28 14 38 / 0 10 10 10 0
TULIA 51 18 29 16 40 / 0 10 10 0 0
PLAINVIEW 50 20 29 17 40 / 0 10 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 49 20 29 17 39 / 0 10 10 0 0
LUBBOCK 51 21 29 18 39 / 0 10 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 46 22 29 17 38 / 0 10 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 46 22 29 17 38 / 0 10 20 0 10
CHILDRESS 50 21 30 17 37 / 0 0 10 0 0
SPUR 48 22 30 17 36 / 0 10 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 46 23 30 19 35 / 0 10 20 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST THU JAN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
BRING INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE THEN EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF MOISTURE FOR JANUARY. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING AT .92
WHICH IS ABOUT 238 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ONE INCH VALUES NEAR THE
BORDER. A 1 INCH MEASUREMENT ON THE 00Z SOUNDING WOULD PUT US IN THE
TOP 10 ALL TIME PW VALUES EVER FOR JANUARY. THE LOW NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA TRACKING SLOWLY INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO
JUST SOUTH OF US. LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY...BUT WITH THIS MUCH MOISTURE IT DOESN`T TAKE MUCH FOR
WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF BRIEF
MODERATE SHOWERS. HRRR AND UOFA WRF-NAM HINTING AT A CONVECTIVE BAND
THROUGH MUCH OF PIMA AND SOUTHERN PINAL COUNTY THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHOWERS DIMINISH AFTER 9-10PM.
STILL A FEW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES INTO
NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA FRIDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL LIFT THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS.
A RELATIVELY WEAK CHAOTIC FLOW WITH A GENERAL ECMWF/GFS MODEL BLEND
BRINGS A STRONGER WIGGLE IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY FOR ANOTHER SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY THEN OUR SNOW LEVELS
WILL PROBABLY BE LOW ENOUGH FOR AN INCH OR TWO ABOVE 8000 FEET.
A STRONGER IMPULSE SHOULD DIG DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
TOWARD US LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES NEAR
THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TRAJECTORIES FAVOR A GRADIENT
OF INCREASING PRECIP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST WINNER.
RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/00Z.
AREAS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09/18Z
WITH THE COVERAGE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NORTH OF KSAD-KCGZ LINE SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AOB 12K FT.
SOUTH OF A KSAD-KCGZ LINE EXPECT CIGS OF 5-8K FT WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS
ABOVE WITH ISOLD VSBYS 3-5SM IN SHOWERS AND FOG. HIGHEST TERRAIN
PARTIALLY TO MOSTLY OBSCURED. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 09/18Z. WINDS EASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT
INCREASING TO SE 10-15 KTS GILA RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING KSAD AFTER
09/18Z. CERNIGLIA
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A SERIES OF FOUR WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOL AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO
GENERATE SHOWERS AT TIMES WITH A FOCUS ON TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING THEN RETURN LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. CERNIGLIA
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/CERNIGLIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
355 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE EXISTS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FOUND BETWEEN THE LOW
TO THE NORTH AND THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS TURNING THE WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING THEIR SPEEDS...NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA FIRST AND THE SOUTH LATER. THE EARLIER SUNSHINE...THESE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN WINDS...AND THE DEPARTING HIGH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S IN MOST
PLACES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH THE WARMER VALUES GENERALLY FOUND IN
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE STILL RATHER
LOW...RIGHT AROUND ZERO.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE MAIN PATTERN THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
DEPICT A DEEP SECONDARY TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY BEFORE RETREATING TO THE EAST DURING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY AND
ALLOWING THE HEIGHTS TO REBOUND. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT ALOFT WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL BLEND BUT FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR
FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A REINFORCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS...CONDITIONS WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS WITH THE GFS
PALTRY AND THE NAM12 A BIT MORE ROBUST. THE HRRR MEANWHILE KEEPS
THINGS DRY WITH THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH 08Z. THE SREF POPS HAVE ALSO
DROPPED WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. DO EXPECT SOME
FLURRIES AND A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO AROUND AS THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH
BUT IT SHOULD BE NOWHERE AS EXTENSIVE OR OCCASIONALLY INTENSE AS IT
WAS WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE. ACCORDINGLY...WILL KEEP
MENTION OF THE SNOW THREAT MAINLY IN THE HWO WHILE ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. POST FRONTAL...EXPECT BRISK WEST WINDS TO BRING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST
PLACES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AND SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS WITH SOME MINOR TERRAIN BASED POINT
ADJUSTMENTS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. GIVEN THE NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE RAW
CONSENSUS MODEL DATA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP HIGHER THAN ALL MOS FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEN AGREED WITH THEIR LOW SINGLE DIGITS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO MORE
SYSTEMS POISED TO AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY WITH VERY DRY AIR HOLDING OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THANKS TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. IN
FACT...WE MAY SEE SOME FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WITH MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE. A
MODEST WARM NOSE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GIVEN THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE INITIALLY...CLOUD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ON
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE BIG QUESTION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING IS HOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESPOND. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME AREAS MAY NOT CLIMB BACK TO AROUND FREEZING UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME FREEZING RAIN. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO RESIDE ALONG OR NORTH OF I-64...BUT SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD BE AT PLAY AS WELL. CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. ON MONDAY...WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP EVERYTHING RAIN FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL
BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD...BUT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE EXITING. THIS MAY
YIELD EITHER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS
OUT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OF AN ISSUE HERE...BUT WE SHOULD SEE A FEW
SLICK ROADS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF A
LULL AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WE COULD
SEE SOME FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD IN THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. OUR NEXT
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM SUPPRESSED TO OUR
SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER...BUT FARTHER NORTH. BOTH MODELS
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF MORE SNOW AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE...JUST
A QUESTION OF WHERE AND HOW MUCH. CLEARLY THIS SYSTEM REMAINS AROUND
THE DAY 7 PERIOD AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...NOT GOING TO SPEND TOO
MUCH TIME ON THE DETAILS AS THEY ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE ANYWAYS.
HOWEVER...MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH AROUND THIS SYSTEM AS THE COLD AIR HAS ALL RETREATED WELL
TO OUR NORTH BY THIS TIME. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH OF A WARM NOSE
EITHER...SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A WET SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WITH THE EXIT OF THIS HIGH...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND THESE WILL
ALSO LOWER...PRIMARILY TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THIS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH
12Z... WITH SOME SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM BIG SANDY TO LONDON TOWARDS DAWN...SINKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID
MORNING UNDER LOW VFR OR HIGH MVFR CIGS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 20 KTS...CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT
BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING...POST FROPA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1159 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2015
Will add a mention of flurries across most of the area for this
afternoon as strong/persistent WAA and approaching shortwave
attempt to saturate the AMS over the CWA. This scenario is
suggested by the HRRR as well as the latest 4km lclwrf output, and
increasing mid level echoes noted on regional radar seems to
support this thinking. Otherwise, no major changes for this
afternoon.
In addition, have upped winds a bit tonight with the passage of
Arctic front #2, based on latest 12z MOS and well as current
surface obs north of the front that indicate winds are gusting
over 30kts over a large part of eastern SD and w MN.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 336 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2015
Surface ridge moves off to our southeast today allowing
southerly/southwesterly winds to return to the region. With tight
gradient and strong winds aloft, expect winds to mix down and pickup
by mid morning with gusts to 35 mph at times by this afternoon. So
after a very cold morning with temperatures bottoming out between -9
and +2 and high clouds streaming into region ahead of next cold
front, temps to rebound into the 20s with warmest temps over central
MO. Otherwise, temps to remain cold enough and winds up enough to
keep wind chill advisory going til 15z, then let it expire as
conditions improve.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2015
By tonight, next cold frontal boundary to move through forecast
area. So will see clouds on the increase and with a shallow layer
of low level moisture, could see some flurries develop across the
region, so added mention. Lows will be a bit warmer but still in
the single digits far north to the upper teens far south.
Even with plenty of sunshine on Friday, highs will only be in the 10
to 20 degree range. Then lows Friday night to dip down to near zero
far north to around 10 above far south.
On Saturday, surface ridge moves off to the east with south winds
returning. So moderating temps through the weekend with highs back
up near freezing by Sunday. In the meantime, next weather system to
come on shore over southwestern US then track northeast towards
forecast area. Extended models still have timing and placement
differences with this system. But the GFS and ECMWF continue to show
frontal boundary moving into the forecast area by Sunday night and
stalling out south of forecast area. So still expect a wintry mix of
precipitation Sunday through Monday. Forecast soundings are
indicating decent warm layer aloft especially over southern half of
forecast area through this period with a mix of freezing rain and
sleet possible. So added freezing rain mention. Then colder air to
filter in aloft with the mixed precipitation changing to all snow by
Monday night.
By midweek extended models show a southern stream system to our
south that could bring some snow to the southern half of Missouri
and Illinois.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2015
Persistent WAA and approach of upstream shortwave should lead to a
lowering and thicking of current mid and high cloud deck. Believe
bases will remain above 5kft over most of the area, but will need
to watch out for lower ceilings...and possibly lower
visibilities...if flurries mentioned in short term discussion
threaten any of the TAF sites.
Based on current upstream obs over e SD and sw MN...near the next
Arctic front...have gone with MVFR cigs 2000-2500 ft and
occasional flurries with it`s passage in the 02-07z time frame for
TAF sites in our CWA...with this post frontal band of MVFR cigs
advecting south out of the area by daybreak Friday. Have also
upped the winds with it`s passage as well, based on these obs as
well as latest 12z MET/MAV guidance.
Specifics for KSTL: S-SW winds gusting into the 20-25kt range and
ceilings aoa 5kft are expected this afternoon and this evening,
although will need to keep an eye on patches of light snow developing
in this mid cloud deck that could produce briefly lower ceilings
and visibilities. Ceilings are expected to drop into the
2000-3000 ft range by around 06z as next Arctic front surges
through the area, with occasional flurries and another round of NW
winds gusting to at least 25 kts.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1122 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 06
UTC. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
A LOW STRATUS BKN-OVC DECK WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WE HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KPVW AND KLBB ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. GUSTY SW SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LIGHT THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH THE FROPA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015/
AVIATION...
A BROKEN DECK OF LOW MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS HAS SPREAD BACK INTO BOTH
KLBB AND KPVW THIS MORNING...AFTER THE EARLIER 4000 FOOT AGL LAYER
BROKE AWAY AND DIMINISHED TO THE NORTHEAST. LATEST HRRR SHORT TERM
CEILING FORECASTS GIVE A REASONABLE SOLUTION MAINTAINING A DECK IN
THE VICINITY BOTH OF KPVW AND KLBB UNTIL 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE LAYER
FINALLY DISSIPATES. THE HRRR DOES NOT APPEAR TO THREATEN KCDS WITH
THIS LAYER. SO WE WILL HOLD ON TO AN APPROXIMATE 1600-1700 FOOT
AGL LAYER AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW EARLY...WITH VFR DOMINATING
THEREAFTER. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MUCH OF TODAY WILL EASE LATER
IN THE DAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES JUST IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLICE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. WE RETAINED PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES
STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS. THERE ALSO IS A LOW
RISK OF CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BY THE END OF THE TAF...
BUT BELOW MENTIONABLE LIMITS FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015/
SHORT TERM...
A CONSIDERABLY WARMER...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. STILL SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR AND MOISTURE TO
SCOUR OUT EARLY TODAY...BUT END RESULTS SHOULD FAVOR THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS HELPING TO MAXIMIZE
DOWNSLOPE EFFECT. WE HAVE TRENDED WARMER...NOT DISSIMILAR TO THE
PAST TWO WARM DAYS THIS WEEK MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO OVERPLAY SNOW COVER ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND PROBABLY PART OF
THE REASON WARMING IS UNDERDONE. NOT THAT COLD AIR WILL BE FAR
AWAY HOWEVER...AS YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHALLOW COLD FRONTS
WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...AND PROBABLY EVEN ENTER OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...MUCH COLDER AIR
ONCE MORE WILL INVADE THIS EVENING. THIS ALSO WILL LEAD TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTENING AGAIN OVERNIGHT FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES...THOUGH RECENT SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER OR FURTHER
SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. LIKEWISE...WE
HAVE TRENDED MENTION OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS EITHER OR BOTH
LATER AND FURTHER SOUTH. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY CONTINUE TO DWINDLE
WITH TRENDS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A QUICKER PUNCH OF DRY AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY
PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL ATTEMPT TO SUPPLY AN
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER MOISTURE...POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO GENERATE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IF SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES CAN TAKE
PLACE. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL BE IN PLAY SOMETIME EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT...BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE IF
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL EXISTS TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE
THAN VIRGA. LIFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS NEARER THE UPPER LOW AND ANY LINGERING
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. COULD STILL SEE SOME FLURRIES MAKE THEIR
WAY TO THE GROUND FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE ANOTHER DIVE AFTER A WARMER THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT GET
ABOVE FREEZING IF LOW STRATUS BREAKS BY MID MORNING.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE SHAPE INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE FILLING
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM MEXICO...COMBINING WITH VEERING
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE ALOFT...DRY WEATHER STILL
APPEARS IN THE OFFING THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE WEEKEND WITH
THE BRUNT OF THE RESULTING LIFT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH A WARMUP WILL BE IN STORE COMPARED TO FRIDAY...CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND WINDS SOURCING SOME REMAINING
COOL AIR LEFT BEHIND BY THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PUT A
DAMPER ON IT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40. SUNDAY ON THE
OTHER HAND LOOKS TO PROMISE A RETURN TO JUST BELOW NORMAL READINGS
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS
AND LIKELY GREATER INSOLATION ARE REALIZED.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER COOLDOWN TO THE SOUTH PLAINS. AN UPPER
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND UPPER GREAT
BASIN WILL SPELL THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING AND EXTENDING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE. THE USUALLY QUICKER
GFS IN THIS TIME PERIOD HAS BEGUN TO PICK UP THE PACE...MESHING WITH
THE FACT THAT EACH SOLUTION HAS BEEN EXHIBITING AN INCREASE IN
STRENGTH AND COUPLING OF BOTH THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS IN
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE COLD AIR FROM THE
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK PLUNGE LIKELY REMAINING IN PLACE...WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW WHILE INCLUDING A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 47 16 28 14 38 / 0 10 10 10 0
TULIA 51 18 29 16 40 / 0 10 10 0 0
PLAINVIEW 50 20 29 17 40 / 0 10 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 49 20 29 17 39 / 0 10 10 0 0
LUBBOCK 51 21 29 18 39 / 0 10 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 46 22 29 17 38 / 0 10 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 46 22 29 17 38 / 0 10 20 0 10
CHILDRESS 50 21 30 17 37 / 0 0 10 0 0
SPUR 48 22 30 17 36 / 0 10 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 46 23 30 19 35 / 0 10 20 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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