Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/06/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1244 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS.
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL OPEN THE WORK WEEK WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST...PER MESONET OBSERVATIONS...JUST A FEW MORE
SPOTS INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY AND NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE AT THE FREEZING MARK.
OTHERWISE...THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
REMAINS JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR CWFA. CENTRAL NY OBS HAVE OBSERVED A
QUICK JUMP IN BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WITH MANY LOCATIONS INTO
THE 50S WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OVER 20KTS. PER THE
RAP13/HRRR...SEEMS THIS WARM FRONT WILL GET PINCHED ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CWA BORDER SO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW APPROACHING
WESTERN NY WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL JET /GREATER THAN 100KTS @ H500/ IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MORE ROBUST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE WE WILL PLACE HIGHER
POPS.
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE EARLY
EVENING. THE LLJ AT H850 INCREASES TO 45-60 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES INTO SRN QUEBEC. THE CYCLONE DOES
DEEPEN TO CLOSE TO 990 HPA BY 00Z/MON. THE 6-HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OVER SE QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H925 WINDS
AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AT 30-40
KTS...BUT MIXING DOWN 40 KTS IN THE EARLY EVENING MAY BE
DIFFICULT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 WITH A
BURST OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN DACKS IN THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM
MONDAY FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM
MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER...FULTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.
THE ADVISORIES ARE FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS OF
35 TO 45 MPH.
OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A 3RD PERIOD ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY...AS BETTER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS
EXPECTED...BUT FOR NOW WIDESPREAD 46-57 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED. WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
INITIALLY IMPACT THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS MTNS WITH MORE SCT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THESE AREAS.
THE LATEST HIRES WRF AND 3-KM HRRR INDICATE A TRANSITION FROM THE
WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS TO AN ORGANIZED
SINGLE BAND. BUFKIT PROFILES JUST DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO
INDICATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERSION HEIGHT CLOSE TO
10 KFT. HOWEVER...THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND QUICKLY
TRANSITION S/SE WITH THE STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS AT 260-270 DEGS AND THEN
SHIFTS TO A 280 TO 290 DEG LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY. A QUICK BLAST OF
HVY SNOW SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE WRN DACKS WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 TO 8 INCH AMOUNTS JUST SOUTH OF
OLD FORGE AND INLET. THE TRANSITORY BAND MOVES INTO SRN HERKIMER
COUNTY...AND THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 4-7 AM. THE NAM AND
HIRES WRF SHOW A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION WITH MDT INSTABILITY CLASS
AT KUCA BUFKIT PROFILE. THIS AREA MAY NEED AN UPGRADE LATER...BUT
WE PUT THE ENTIRE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY CORRIDOR WAS ALSO PLACED
IN A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. ADVISORY
WIND LEVEL GUSTS WILL BE CLOSE WITH 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS FORECASTED.
LOWS WILL BE MUCH COLDER IN THE TEENS TO M20S WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK...AND U20S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.
MONDAY...THE BETTER PRESSURE RISES PASS NORTH OF ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY AND NRN NY BTWN 12Z-18Z MON 8-10 HPA/6 HRS. THE ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET IS IMPRESSIVE AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES TO
ABOUT 980 HPA OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z/MON. SOME
SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH
ARE EXPECTED. THE 10-M WINDS ON THE GFSMOS PRODUCT FOR KALB ARE
IMPRESSIVE IN THE 18-24 KT SUSTAINED RANGE. THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER PROFILES SHOW 40 KTS WILL NEED TO MIXED FROM 2.5 KFT AGL
FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET. ANY WIND FLAGS WILL BE
MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. IT DOES LOOK PLAUSIBLE THAT SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION AND NRN TACONICS. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED
LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE PM FOR A COATING TO PERHAPS A HALF AN
INCH OF SNOW. SOME OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SRN GREENS IN THE
SRN VT...TACONICS...AND NRN BERKS COULD GET AN INCH OR TWO OR
SNOW. THE ADVISORY AREA HIGHLIGHTED WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 3 TO 6
INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED 4 TO 8 INCH AMOUNTS. THE INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE SHEAR INCREASES SO THE
DOWNSTREAM TRAJECTORY WILL DECREASE. MAX TEMPS MAY BE IN THE
MORNING...AND TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY IN THE AFTERNOON
IN THE POTENT COLD ADVECTION REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS CRASH INTO THE
-17C TO -22C RANGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE M20S TO L30S FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND EAST...AND TEENS TO
L20S NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE SRN DACKS.
WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.
MONDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD...AS THE FLOW
BACKS WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE/CLIPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM
QUEBEC WITH A VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED. THE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH...AND FRIGID TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE REGION REGION...AND
ZERO TO 10 ABOVE IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER TEENS IN
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS WITH THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEK...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE.
A QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT GOOD FORCING. LOOKING AT HIGH RATIO SNOWFALL. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE NEXT QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE WILL BE IN ITS HEELS. WILL HAVE CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SNOW SQUALLS
AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM/FRONT WILL BE THE ONE THAT OPENS THE DOOR TO THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS WITH ITS PASSAGE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE MODELED TO DROP TO -25 TO -30 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUMMET RANGING FROM AROUND 1 DEGREES
TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO...AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE TIGHT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ADVANCING HIGH
RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
BITTER TEMPERATURES AND BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TO
LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILL VALUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THURSDAY WILL BE A FRIGID DAY WITH SOME HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE LAST
TIME IS WAS THIS COLD WAS BACK ON JANUARY 22 2014...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN ALBANY WAS ONLY 9 DEGREES WITH A LOW OF 6 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. LOOKING AT SIMILAR VALUES. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WOULD EXPECT MULTI BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WHICH COULD MAY REACH INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK
BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOME IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM HOWEVER THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST AIR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH PASSING OVER EASTERN CANADA ITS
IN WAKE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. COULD BE LOOKING AT MORE LAKE
EFFECT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY LIFR AT ALL SITES. LOW CIGS AND LOW
VSBY DUE TO FOG/MIST ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR KALB...WHERE A SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO BE AROUND 10 KTS.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WINDS WILL PICK UP AT ALL
SITES. THIS WIND WILL ALLOW THE LOW VSBYS TO IMPROVE TOWARDS 6SM OR
HIGHER DUE TO MIXING...AND SOME OF THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD START TO
BREAK UP AS WELL. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY...ESP
FOR KPOU/KPSF...AS OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOWS A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS AFFECTING THOSE TERMINALS BETWEEN SUNSET AND 7 PM.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SHOWERS WILL END AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE EVEN FURTHER...AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. WITH COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN...GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESP BY MONDAY MORNING...WHEN GUST OVER
30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KALB/KPSF. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
AT LEAST MVFR TONIGHT...AND LOOK TO BE VFR FOR ALL SITES ON MONDAY.
THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO AFFECT KALB ON MONDAY
MORNING...AS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY COULD WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL JUST INCLUDE
VCSH...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...IT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON VSBYS/CIGS
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE HSA THROUGH TODAY.
MOST AREAS ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...WITH LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS ON
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING BRIEFLY OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION.
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND PER COLLABORATION
YESTERDAY WITH THE NERFC...THE HSA POINTS THAT GOES ABOVE ACTION
STAGE ARE WILLIAMSTOWN /WILM3/...AND GRANVILLE /GVVN6/ AT THIS
TIME. SINCE THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.
THEREAFTER...BITTER COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. SOME
FREEZE UP ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...ICE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE ACROSS RIVERS
AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ038>040-082.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
933 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS.
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL OPEN THE WORK WEEK WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 933 AM EST...WITH THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT NOW WELL NORTH OF
OUR AREA...AND A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION...STEADY PRECIPITATION IS
TAPERING OFF ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
RAIN OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL ARE POCKETS OF SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VERMONT.
ALTHOUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL MAINLY BE RAIN FREE...THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE...ESP FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...SO HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINGERING
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN. OTHERWISE...HAVE LET THE ONGOING WSW
EXPIRE ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL ICING
APPEARS TO BE OVER. ALL AREAS LOOK TO SEE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY
NOON.
THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER SRN ONTARIO. THE H850 WINDS
ARE SHIFTING TO THE SW FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO BREAK THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION.
EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO +7C
TO +10C. OUR MAX TEMPS REFLECT THE METMOS VALUES WITH M40S TO L50S
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE IN SE VERMONT WHERE
THE COLD AIR WILL BE TOUGHEST TO DISLODGE.
IT APPEARS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE EARLY
EVENING. THE LLJ AT H850 INCREASES TO 45-60 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES INTO SRN QUEBEC. THE CYCLONE DOES
DEEPEN TO CLOSE TO 990 HPA BY 00Z/MON. THE 6-HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OVER SE QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H925 WINDS
AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AT 30-40
KTS...BUT MIXING DOWN 40 KTS IN THE EARLY EVENING MAY BE
DIFFICULT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 WITH A
BURST OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN DACKS IN THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM
MONDAY FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY
FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER...FULTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.
THE ADVISORIES ARE FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS OF
35 TO 45 MPH.
OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A 3RD PERIOD ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY...AS BETTER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS
EXPECTED...BUT FOR NOW WIDESPREAD 46-57 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED. WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
INITIALLY IMPACT THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS MTNS WITH MORE SCT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THESE AREAS.
THE LATEST HIRES WRF AND 3-KM HRRR INDICATE A TRANSITION FROM THE
WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS TO AN ORGANIZED
SINGLE BAND. BUFKIT PROFILES JUST DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO
INDICATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERSION HEIGHT CLOSE TO
10 KFT. HOWEVER...THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND QUICKLY
TRANSITION S/SE WITH THE STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS AT 260-270 DEGS AND THEN
SHIFTS TO A 280 TO 290 DEG LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY. A QUICK BLAST OF
HVY SNOW SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE WRN DACKS WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 TO 8 INCH AMOUNTS JUST SOUTH OF
OLD FORGE AND INLET. THE TRANSITORY BAND MOVES INTO SRN HERKIMER
COUNTY...AND THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 4-7 AM. THE NAM AND
HIRES WRF SHOW A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION WITH MDT INSTABILITY CLASS
AT KUCA BUFKIT PROFILE. THIS AREA MAY NEED AN UPGRADE LATER...BUT
WE PUT THE ENTIRE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY CORRIDOR WAS ALSO PLACED
IN A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. ADVISORY
WIND LEVEL GUSTS WILL BE CLOSE WITH 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS FORECASTED.
LOWS WILL BE MUCH COLDER IN THE TEENS TO M20S WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK...AND U20S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.
MONDAY...THE BETTER PRESSURE RISES PASS NORTH OF ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY AND NRN NY BTWN 12Z-18Z MON 8-10 HPA/6 HRS. THE ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET IS IMPRESSIVE AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES TO
ABOUT 980 HPA OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z/MON. SOME
SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH
ARE EXPECTED. THE 10-M WINDS ON THE GFSMOS PRODUCT FOR KALB ARE
IMPRESSIVE IN THE 18-24 KT SUSTAINED RANGE. THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER PROFILES SHOW 40 KTS WILL NEED TO MIXED FROM 2.5 KFT AGL
FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET. ANY WIND FLAGS WILL BE
MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. IT DOES LOOK PLAUSIBLE THAT SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION AND NRN TACONICS. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED
LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE PM FOR A COATING TO PERHAPS A HALF AN
INCH OF SNOW. SOME OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SRN GREENS IN THE
SRN VT...TACONICS...AND NRN BERKS COULD GET AN INCH OR TWO OR
SNOW. THE ADVISORY AREA HIGHLIGHTED WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 3 TO 6
INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED 4 TO 8 INCH AMOUNTS. THE INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE SHEAR INCREASES SO THE
DOWNSTREAM TRAJECTORY WILL DECREASE. MAX TEMPS MAY BE IN THE
MORNING...AND TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY IN THE AFTERNOON
IN THE POTENT COLD ADVECTION REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS CRASH INTO THE
-17C TO -22C RANGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE M20S TO L30S FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND EAST...AND TEENS TO
L20S NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE SRN DACKS.
WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.
MONDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD...AS THE FLOW
BACKS WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE/CLIPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM
QUEBEC WITH A VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED. THE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH...AND FRIGID TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE REGION REGION...AND
ZERO TO 10 ABOVE IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER TEENS IN
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS WITH THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEK...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE.
A QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT GOOD FORCING. LOOKING AT HIGH RATIO SNOWFALL. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE NEXT QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE WILL BE IN ITS HEELS. WILL HAVE CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SNOW SQUALLS
AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM/FRONT WILL BE THE ONE THAT OPENS THE DOOR TO THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS WITH ITS PASSAGE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE MODELED TO DROP TO -25 TO -30 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUMMET RANGING FROM AROUND 1 DEGREES
TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO...AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE TIGHT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ADVANCING HIGH
RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
BITTER TEMPERATURES AND BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TO
LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILL VALUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THURSDAY WILL BE A FRIGID DAY WITH SOME HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE LAST
TIME IS WAS THIS COLD WAS BACK ON JANUARY 22 2014...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN ALBANY WAS ONLY 9 DEGREES WITH A LOW OF 6 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. LOOKING AT SIMILAR VALUES. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WOULD EXPECT MULTI BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WHICH COULD MAY REACH INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK
BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOME IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM HOWEVER THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST AIR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH PASSING OVER EASTERN CANADA ITS
IN WAKE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. COULD BE LOOKING AT MORE LAKE
EFFECT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STRUGGLES TO WARM. TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOVE FREEZING AT KPOU AND KALB. HOWEVER AT KPSF IS NOW 32 DEGREES
AND KGFL 31 DEGREES. MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHICH IS CAUGHT UP IN THE
APPALACHIANS. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FORCED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE AREA
SHOULD BRIEFLY GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH THE BETTER CHANCES AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS/CEILINGS WILL LIFT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT
AND INCREASE IN SPEED. THEY WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY. HAVE KEPT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN KPOU TAF THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE HSA THROUGH TODAY.
MOST AREAS ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...WITH LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS ON
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING BRIEFLY OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION.
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND PER COLLABORATION
YESTERDAY WITH THE NERFC...THE HSA POINTS THAT GOES ABOVE ACTION
STAGE ARE WILLIAMSTOWN /WILM3/...AND GRANVILLE /GVVN6/ AT THIS
TIME. SINCE THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.
THEREAFTER...BITTER COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. SOME
FREEZE UP ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...ICE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE ACROSS RIVERS
AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ038>040-082.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
701 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS.
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL OPEN THE WORK WEEK WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 653 AM EST...THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 9 AM
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. THE WARNINGS ALSO GO UNTIL 9 AM. A REPORT OF A
QUARTER INCH OF ICE CAME IN FROM PERU IN THE BERKSHIRES. BASED ON
THE RADAR RETURNS WOULD BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE OTHER QUARTER TO
THIRD OF AN INCH ICE AMOUNTS EAST OF THE SRN GREENS...AND SRN
DACKS.
IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
HAS ALLOWED THE PCPN TO BLOSSOM AGAIN OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR MOST OF THE MORNING.
THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BTWN 6 AM
AND 9 AM. ANY ADDITIONAL ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH WHERE THE STATEMENTS ARE STILL UP.
THE STRONG LLJ WITH THE SURGE OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS NOW
LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. THE H850 WINDS ARE
SHIFTING TO THE SW FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO BREAK THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION WITH ONE
MORE SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PCPN EXPECTED. THERE MAYBE ANOTHER
LULL IN THE PCPN IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS THE
FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO BE
AROUND AND H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO +7C TO +10C. OUR MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE METMOS VALUES WITH M40S TO L50S ACROSS THE REGION.
IT APPEARS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE EARLY
EVENING. THE LLJ AT H850 INCREASES TO 45-60 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES INTO SRN QUEBEC. THE CYCLONE DOES
DEEPEN TO CLOSE TO 990 HPA BY 00Z/MON. THE 6-HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OVER SE QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H925 WINDS
AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AT 30-40
KTS...BUT MIXING DOWN 40 KTS IN THE EARLY EVENING MAY BE
DIFFICULT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 WITH A
BURST OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN DACKS IN THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM
MONDAY FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM
MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER...FULTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.
THE ADVISORIES ARE FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS OF
35 TO 45 MPH.
OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A 3RD PERIOD ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY...AS BETTER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS
EXPECTED...BUT FOR NOW WIDESPREAD 46-57 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED. WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
INITIALLY IMPACT THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS MTNS WITH MORE SCT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THESE AREAS.
THE LATEST HIRES WRF AND 3-KM HRRR INDICATE A TRANSITION FROM THE
WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS TO AN ORGANIZED
SINGLE BAND. BUFKIT PROFILES JUST DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO
INDICATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERSION HEIGHT CLOSE TO
10 KFT. HOWEVER...THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND QUICKLY
TRANSITION S/SE WITH THE STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS AT 260-270 DEGS AND THEN
SHIFTS TO A 280 TO 290 DEG LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY. A QUICK BLAST OF
HVY SNOW SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE WRN DACKS WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 TO 8 INCH AMOUNTS JUST SOUTH OF
OLD FORGE AND INLET. THE TRANSITORY BAND MOVES INTO SRN HERKIMER
COUNTY...AND THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 4-7 AM. THE NAM AND
HIRES WRF SHOW A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION WITH MDT INSTABILITY CLASS
AT KUCA BUFKIT PROFILE. THIS AREA MAY NEED AN UPGRADE LATER...BUT
WE PUT THE ENTIRE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY CORRIDOR WAS ALSO PLACED
IN A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. ADVISORY
WIND LEVEL GUSTS WILL BE CLOSE WITH 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS FORECASTED.
LOWS WILL BE MUCH COLDER IN THE TEENS TO M20S WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK...AND U20S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.
MONDAY...THE BETTER PRESSURE RISES PASS NORTH OF ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY AND NRN NY BTWN 12Z-18Z MON 8-10 HPA/6 HRS. THE ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET IS IMPRESSIVE AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES TO
ABOUT 980 HPA OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z/MON. SOME
SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH
ARE EXPECTED. THE 10-M WINDS ON THE GFSMOS PRODUCT FOR KALB ARE
IMPRESSIVE IN THE 18-24 KT SUSTAINED RANGE. THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER PROFILES SHOW 40 KTS WILL NEED TO MIXED FROM 2.5 KFT AGL
FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET. ANY WIND FLAGS WILL BE
MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. IT DOES LOOK PLAUSIBLE THAT SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION AND NRN TACONICS. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED
LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE PM FOR A COATING TO PERHAPS A HALF AN
INCH OF SNOW. SOME OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SRN GREENS IN THE
SRN VT...TACONICS...AND NRN BERKS COULD GET AN INCH OR TWO OR
SNOW. THE ADVISORY AREA HIGHLIGHTED WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 3 TO 6
INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED 4 TO 8 INCH AMOUNTS. THE INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE SHEAR INCREASES SO THE
DOWNSTREAM TRAJECTORY WILL DECREASE. MAX TEMPS MAY BE IN THE
MORNING...AND TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY IN THE AFTERNOON
IN THE POTENT COLD ADVECTION REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS CRASH INTO THE
-17C TO -22C RANGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE M20S TO L30S FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND EAST...AND TEENS TO
L20S NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE SRN DACKS.
WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.
MONDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD...AS THE FLOW
BACKS WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE/CLIPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM
QUEBEC WITH A VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED. THE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH...AND FRIGID TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE REGION REGION...AND
ZERO TO 10 ABOVE IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER TEENS IN
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS WITH THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEK...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE.
A QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT GOOD FORCING. LOOKING AT HIGH RATIO SNOWFALL. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE NEXT QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE WILL BE IN ITS HEELS. WILL HAVE CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SNOW SQUALLS
AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM/FRONT WILL BE THE ONE THAT OPENS THE DOOR TO THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS WITH ITS PASSAGE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE MODELED TO DROP TO -25 TO -30 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUMMET RANGING FROM AROUND 1 DEGREES
TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO...AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE TIGHT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ADVANCING HIGH
RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
BITTER TEMPERATURES AND BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TO
LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILL VALUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THURSDAY WILL BE A FRIGID DAY WITH SOME HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE LAST
TIME IS WAS THIS COLD WAS BACK ON JANUARY 22 2014...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN ALBANY WAS ONLY 9 DEGREES WITH A LOW OF 6 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. LOOKING AT SIMILAR VALUES. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WOULD EXPECT MULTI BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WHICH COULD MAY REACH INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK
BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOME IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM HOWEVER THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST AIR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH PASSING OVER EASTERN CANADA ITS
IN WAKE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. COULD BE LOOKING AT MORE LAKE
EFFECT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STRUGGLES TO WARM. TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOVE FREEZING AT KPOU AND KALB. HOWEVER AT KPSF IS NOW 32 DEGREES
AND KGFL 31 DEGREES. MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHICH IS CAUGHT UP IN THE
APPALACHIANS. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FORCED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE AREA
SHOULD BRIEFLY GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH THE BETTER CHANCES AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS/CEILINGS WILL LIFT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT
AND INCREASE IN SPEED. THEY WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY. HAVE KEPT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN KPOU TAF THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE HSA THROUGH TODAY.
MOST AREAS ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...WITH LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS ON
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING BRIEFLY OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION.
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND PER COLLABORATION
YESTERDAY WITH THE NERFC...THE HSA POINTS THAT GOES ABOVE ACTION
STAGE ARE WILLIAMSTOWN /WILM3/...AND GRANVILLE /GVVN6/ AT THIS
TIME. SINCE THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.
THEREAFTER...BITTER COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. SOME
FREEZE UP ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...ICE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE ACROSS RIVERS
AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
038>040-048>050-053-054-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ033-
041>043-082-083.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ038>040-082.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ014-
015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
653 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS.
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL OPEN THE WORK WEEK WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 653 AM EST...THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 9 AM
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. THE WARNINGS ALSO GO UNTIL 9 AM. A REPORT OF A
QUARTER INCH OF ICE CAME IN FROM PERU IN THE BERKSHIRES. BASED ON
THE RADAR RETURNS WOULD BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE OTHER QUARTER TO
THIRD OF AN INCH ICE AMOUNTS EAST OF THE SRN GREENS...AND SRN
DACKS.
IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT ANOTHER SH0RT-WAVE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
HAS ALLOWED THE PCPN TO BLOSSOM AGAIN OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR MOST OF THE MORNING.
THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BTWN 6 AM
AND 9 AM. ANY ADDITIONAL ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH WHERE THE STATEMENTS ARE STILL UP.
THE STRONG LLJ WITH THE SURGE OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS NOW
LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. THE H850 WINDS ARE
SHIFTING TO THE SW FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO BREAK THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION WITH ONE
MORE SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PCPN EXPECTED. THERE MAYBE ANOTHER
LULL IN THE PCPN IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS THE
FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO BE
AROUND AND H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO +7C TO +10C. OUR MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE METMOS VALUES WITH M40S TO L50S ACROSS THE REGION.
IT APPEARS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE EARLY
EVENING. THE LLJ AT H850 INCREASES TO 45-60 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES INTO SRN QUEBEC. THE CYCLONE DOES
DEEPEN TO CLOSE TO 990 HPA BY 00Z/MON. THE 6-HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OVER SE QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H925 WINDS
AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AT 30-40
KTS...BUT MIXING DOWN 40 KTS IN THE EARLY EVENING MAY BE
DIFFICULT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 WITH A
BURST OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN DACKS IN THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM
MONDAY FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM
MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER...FULTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.
THE ADVISORIES ARE FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS OF
35 TO 45 MPH.
OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A 3RD PERIOD ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY...AS BETTER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS
EXPECTED...BUT FOR NOW WIDESPREAD 46-57 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED. WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
INITIALLY IMPACT THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS MTNS WITH MORE SCT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THESE AREAS.
THE LATEST HIRES WRF AND 3-KM HRRR INDICATE A TRANSITION FROM THE
WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS TO AN ORGANIZED
SINGLE BAND. BUFKIT PROFILES JUST DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO
INDICATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERSION HEIGHT CLOSE TO
10 KFT. HOWEVER...THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND QUICKLY
TRANSITION S/SE WITH THE STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS AT 260-270 DEGS AND THEN
SHIFTS TO A 280 TO 290 DEG LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY. A QUICK BLAST OF
HVY SNOW SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE WRN DACKS WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 TO 8 INCH AMOUNTS JUST SOUTH OF
OLD FORGE AND INLET. THE TRANSITORY BAND MOVES INTO SRN HERKIMER
COUNTY...AND THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 4-7 AM. THE NAM AND
HIRES WRF SHOW A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION WITH MDT INSTABILITY CLASS
AT KUCA BUFKIT PROFILE. THIS AREA MAY NEED AN UPGRADE LATER...BUT
WE PUT THE ENTIRE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY CORRIDOR WAS ALSO PLACED
IN A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. ADVISORY
WIND LEVEL GUSTS WILL BE CLOSE WITH 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS FORECASTED.
LOWS WILL BE MUCH COLDER IN THE TEENS TO M20S WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK...AND U20S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.
MONDAY...THE BETTER PRESSURE RISES PASS NORTH OF ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY AND NRN NY BTWN 12Z-18Z MON 8-10 HPA/6 HRS. THE ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET IS IMPRESSIVE AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES TO
ABOUT 980 HPA OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z/MON. SOME
SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH
ARE EXPECTED. THE 10-M WINDS ON THE GFSMOS PRODUCT FOR KALB ARE
IMPRESSIVE IN THE 18-24 KT SUSTAINED RANGE. THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER PROFILES SHOW 40 KTS WILL NEED TO MIXED FROM 2.5 KFT AGL
FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET. ANY WIND FLAGS WILL BE
MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. IT DOES LOOK PLAUSIBLE THAT SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION AND NRN TACONICS. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED
LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE PM FOR A COATING TO PERHAPS A HALF AN
INCH OF SNOW. SOME OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SRN GREENS IN THE
SRN VT...TACONICS...AND NRN BERKS COULD GET AN INCH OR TWO OR
SNOW. THE ADVISORY AREA HIGHLIGHTED WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 3 TO 6
INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED 4 TO 8 INCH AMOUNTS. THE INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE SHEAR INCREASES SO THE
DOWNSTREAM TRAJECTORY WILL DECREASE. MAX TEMPS MAY BE IN THE
MORNING...AND TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY IN THE AFTERNOON
IN THE POTENT COLD ADVECTION REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS CRASH INTO THE
-17C TO -22C RANGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE M20S TO L30S FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND EAST...AND TEENS TO
L20S NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE SRN DACKS.
WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.
MONDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD...AS THE FLOW
BACKS WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE/CLIPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM
QUEBEC WITH A VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED. THE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH...AND FRIGID TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE REGION REGION...AND
ZERO TO 10 ABOVE IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER TEENS IN
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS WITH THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEK...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE.
A QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT GOOD FORCING. LOOKING AT HIGH RATIO SNOWFALL. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE NEXT QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE WILL BE IN ITS HEELS. WILL HAVE CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SNOW SQUALLS
AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM/FRONT WILL BE THE ONE THAT OPENS THE DOOR TO THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS WITH ITS PASSAGE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE MODELED TO DROP TO -25 TO -30 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUMMET RANGING FROM AROUND 1 DEGREES
TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO...AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE TIGHT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ADVANCING HIGH
RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
BITTER TEMPERATURES AND BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TO
LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILL VALUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THURSDAY WILL BE A FRIGID DAY WITH SOME HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE LAST
TIME IS WAS THIS COLD WAS BACK ON JANUARY 22 2014...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN ALBANY WAS ONLY 9 DEGREES WITH A LOW OF 6 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. LOOKING AT SIMILAR VALUES. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WOULD EXPECT MULTI BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WHICH COULD MAY REACH INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK
BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOME IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM HOWEVER THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST AIR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH PASSING OVER EASTERN CANADA ITS
IN WAKE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. COULD BE LOOKING AT MORE LAKE
EFFECT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER STRUGGLES TO WARM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE
FREEZING AT KPOU AND KALB WITH 34 DEGREES. HOWEVER AT KPSF
TEMPERATURE HAS ONLY REACHED 32 DEGREES AND AT KGFL 30 DEGREES SO
FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE STEADY PRECIPITATION MOVED OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING HOWEVER REGIONAL RADARS TO OUR WEST INDICATE MORE ON THE WAY
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WHICH IS CAUGHT UP IN THE APPALACHIANS. THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE FORCED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE AREA
SHOULD BRIEFLY GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS/CEILINGS WILL LIFT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT
AND INCREASE IN SPEED. THEY WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY. HAVE KEPT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN KPOU TAF THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE HSA THROUGH TODAY.
MOST AREAS ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...WITH LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS ON
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING BRIEFLY OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION.
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND PER COLLABORATION
YESTERDAY WITH THE NERFC...THE HSA POINTS THAT GOES ABOVE ACTION
STAGE ARE WILLIAMSTOWN /WILM3/...AND GRANVILLE /GVVN6/ AT THIS
TIME. SINCE THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.
THEREAFTER...BITTER COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. SOME
FREEZE UP ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...ICE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE ACROSS RIVERS
AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
038>040-048>050-053-054-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ033-
041>043-082-083.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ038>040-082.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ014-
015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
536 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS.
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL OPEN THE WORK WEEK WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 534 AM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
EASTERN ALBANY COUNTY. ALL OTHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
KEPT UP UNTIL 6 AM AND 9 AM. THE PCPN HAVE BECOME SPOTTY THIS
HOUR...BUT ANOTHER BATCH IS ORGANIZING OVER CNTRL NY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT. TEMPS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BTWN 6 AM AND 9 AM. ANY ADDITIONAL ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE A
COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WHERE THE ADVISORY IS STILL UP.
THE STRONG LLJ WITH THE SURGE OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS NOW
LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. THE H850 WINDS ARE
SHIFTING TO THE SW FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO BREAK THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION WITH ONE
MORE SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PCPN EXPECTED. THERE MAYBE ANOTHER
LULL IN THE PCPN IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND THE
FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO BE
AROUND AND H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO +7C TO +10C. OUR MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE METMOS VALUES WITH M40S TO L50S ACROSS THE REGION.
IT APPEARS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE EARLY
EVENING. THE LLJ AT H850 INCREASES TO 45-60 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES INTO SRN QUEBEC. THE CYCLONE DOES
DEEPEN TO CLOSE TO 990 HPA BY 00Z/MON. THE 6-HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OVER SE QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H925 WINDS
AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AT 30-40
KTS...BUT MIXING DOWN 40 KTS IN THE EARLY EVENING MAY BE
DIFFICULT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 WITH A
BURST OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN DACKS IN THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM
MONDAY FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM
MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER...FULTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.
THE ADVISORIES ARE FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS OF
35 TO 45 MPH.
OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A 3RD PERIOD ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY...AS BETTER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS
EXPECTED...BUT FOR NOW WIDESPREAD 46-57 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED. WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
INITIALLY IMPACT THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS MTNS WITH MORE SCT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THESE AREAS.
THE LATEST HIRES WRF AND 3-KM HRRR INDICATE A TRANSITION FROM THE
WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS TO AN ORGANIZED
SINGLE BAND. BUFKIT PROFILES JUST DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO
INDICATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERSION HEIGHT CLOSE TO
10 KFT. HOWEVER...THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND QUICKLY
TRANSITION S/SE WITH THE STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS AT 260-270 DEGS AND THEN
SHIFTS TO A 280 TO 290 DEG LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY. A QUICK BLAST OF
HVY SNOW SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE WRN DACKS WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 TO 8 INCH AMOUNTS JUST SOUTH OF
OLD FORGE AND INLET. THE TRANSITORY BAND MOVES INTO SRN HERKIMER
COUNTY...AND THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 4-7 AM. THE NAM AND
HIRES WRF SHOW A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION WITH MDT INSTABILITY CLASS
AT KUCA BUFKIT PROFILE. THIS AREA MAY NEED AN UPGRADE LATER...BUT
WE PUT THE ENTIRE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY CORRIDOR WAS ALSO PLACED
IN A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. ADVISORY
WIND LEVEL GUSTS WILL BE CLOSE WITH 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS FORECASTED.
LOWS WILL BE MUCH COLDER IN THE TEENS TO M20S WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK...AND U20S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.
MONDAY...THE BETTER PRESSURE RISES PASS NORTH OF ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY AND NRN NY BTWN 12Z-18Z MON 8-10 HPA/6 HRS. THE ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET IS IMPRESSIVE AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES TO
ABOUT 980 HPA OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z/MON. SOME
SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH
ARE EXPECTED. THE 10-M WINDS ON THE GFSMOS PRODUCT FOR KALB ARE
IMPRESSIVE IN THE 18-24 KT SUSTAINED RANGE. THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER PROFILES SHOW 40 KTS WILL NEED TO MIXED FROM 2.5 KFT AGL
FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET. ANY WIND FLAGS WILL BE
MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. IT DOES LOOK PLAUSIBLE THAT SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION AND NRN TACONICS. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED
LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE PM FOR A COATING TO PERHAPS A HALF AN
INCH OF SNOW. SOME OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SRN GREENS IN THE
SRN VT...TACONICS...AND NRN BERKS COULD GET AN INCH OR TWO OR
SNOW. THE ADVISORY AREA HIGHLIGHTED WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 3 TO 6
INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED 4 TO 8 INCH AMOUNTS. THE INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE SHEAR INCREASES SO THE
DOWNSTREAM TRAJECTORY WILL DECREASE. MAX TEMPS MAY BE IN THE
MORNING...AND TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY IN THE AFTERNOON
IN THE POTENT COLD ADVECTION REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS CRASH INTO THE
-17C TO -22C RANGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE M20S TO L30S FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND EAST...AND TEENS TO
L20S NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE SRN DACKS.
WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.
MONDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD...AS THE FLOW
BACKS WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE/CLIPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM
QUEBEC WITH A VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED. THE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH...AND FRIGID TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE REGION REGION...AND
ZERO TO 10 ABOVE IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER TEENS IN
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS WITH THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEK...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE.
A QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT GOOD FORCING. LOOKING AT HIGH RATIO SNOWFALL. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE NEXT QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE WILL BE IN ITS HEELS. WILL HAVE CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SNOW SQUALLS
AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM/FRONT WILL BE THE ONE THAT OPENS THE DOOR TO THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS WITH ITS PASSAGE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE MODELED TO DROP TO -25 TO -30 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUMMET RANGING FROM AROUND 1 DEGREES
TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO...AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE TIGHT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ADVANCING HIGH
RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
BITTER TEMPERATURES AND BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TO
LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILL VALUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THURSDAY WILL BE A FRIGID DAY WITH SOME HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE LAST
TIME IS WAS THIS COLD WAS BACK ON JANUARY 22 2014...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN ALBANY WAS ONLY 9 DEGREES WITH A LOW OF 6 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. LOOKING AT SIMILAR VALUES. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WOULD EXPECT MULTI BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WHICH COULD MAY REACH INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK
BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOME IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM HOWEVER THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST AIR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH PASSING OVER EASTERN CANADA ITS
IN WAKE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. COULD BE LOOKING AT MORE LAKE
EFFECT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER STRUGGLES TO WARM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE
FREEZING AT KPOU AND KALB WITH 34 DEGREES. HOWEVER AT KPSF
TEMPERATURE HAS ONLY REACHED 32 DEGREES AND AT KGFL 30 DEGREES SO
FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE STEADY PRECIPITATION MOVED OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING HOWEVER REGIONAL RADARS TO OUR WEST INDICATE MORE ON THE WAY
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WHICH IS CAUGHT UP IN THE APPALACHIANS. THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE FORCED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE AREA
SHOULD BRIEFLY GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS/CEILINGS WILL LIFT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT
AND INCREASE IN SPEED. THEY WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY. HAVE KEPT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN KPOU TAF THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE HSA THROUGH TODAY.
MOST AREAS ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...WITH LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS ON
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING BRIEFLY OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION.
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND PER COLLABORATION
YESTERDAY WITH THE NERFC...THE HSA POINTS THAT GOES ABOVE ACTION
STAGE ARE WILLIAMSTOWN /WILM3/...AND GRANVILLE /GVVN6/ AT THIS
TIME. SINCE THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.
THEREAFTER...BITTER COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. SOME
FREEZE UP ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...ICE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE ACROSS RIVERS
AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ001.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ032-038>040-048>050-053-054-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ033-
041>043-082-083.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ038>040-082.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ014-
015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
534 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS.
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL OPEN THE WORK WEEK WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 534 AM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
EASTERN ALBANY COUNTY. ALL OTHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
KEPT UP UNTIL 6 AM AND 9 AM. THE PCPN HAVE BECOME SPOTTY THIS
HOUR...BUT ANOTHER BATCH IS ORGANIZING OVER CNTRL NY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT. TEMPS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BTWN 6 AM AND 9 AM. ANY ADDITIONAL ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE A
COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WHERE THE ADVISORY IS STILL UP.
THE STRONG LLJ WITH THE SURGE OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS NOW
LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. THE H850 WINDS ARE
SHIFTING TO THE SW FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO BREAK THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION WITH ONE
MORE SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PCPN EXPECTED. THERE MAYBE ANOTHER
LULL IN THE PCPN IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND THE
FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO BE
AROUND AND H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO +7C TO +10C. OUR MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE METMOS VALUES WITH M40S TO L50S ACROSS THE REGION.
IT APPEARS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE EARLY
EVENING. THE LLJ AT H850 INCREASES TO 45-60 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES INTO SRN QUEBEC. THE CYCLONE DOES
DEEPEN TO CLOSE TO 990 HPA BY 00Z/MON. THE 6-HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OVER SE QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H925 WINDS
AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AT 30-40
KTS...BUT MIXING DOWN 40 KTS IN THE EARLY EVENING MAY BE
DIFFICULT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 WITH A
BURST OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN DACKS IN THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM
MONDAY FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM
MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER...FULTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.
THE ADVISORIES ARE FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS OF
35 TO 45 MPH.
OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A 3RD PERIOD ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY...AS BETTER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS
EXPECTED...BUT FOR NOW WIDESPREAD 46-57 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED. WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
INITIALLY IMPACT THE WRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS MTNS WITH MORE SCT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THESE AREAS.
THE LATEST HIRES WRF AND 3-KM HRRR INDICATE A TRANSITION FROM THE
WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS TO AN ORGANIZED
SINGLE BAND. BUFKIT PROFILES JUST DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO
INDICATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERSION HEIGHT CLOSE TO
10 KFT. HOWEVER...THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND QUICKLY
TRANSITION S/SE WITH THE STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS AT 260-270 DEGS AND THEN
SHIFTS TO A 280 TO 290 DEG LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY. A QUICK BLAST OF
HVY SNOW SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE WRN DACKS WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 TO 8 INCH AMOUNTS JUST SOUTH OF
OLD FORGE AND INLET. THE TRANSITORY BAND MOVES INTO SRN HERKIMER
COUNTY...AND THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 4-7 AM. THE NAM AND
HIRES WRF SHOW A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION WITH MDT INSTABILITY CLASS
AT KUCA BUFKIT PROFILE. THIS AREA MAY NEED AN UPGRADE LATER...BUT
WE PUT THE ENTIRE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY CORRIDOR WAS ALSO PLACED
IN A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. ADVISORY
WIND LEVEL GUSTS WILL BE CLOSE WITH 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS FORECASTED.
LOWS WILL BE MUCH COLDER IN THE TEENS TO M20S WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK...AND U20S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.
MONDAY...THE BETTER PRESSURE RISES PASS NORTH OF ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY AND NRN NY BTWN 12Z-18Z MON 8-10 HPA/6 HRS. THE ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET IS IMPRESSIVE AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES TO
ABOUT 980 HPA OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z/MON. SOME
SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH
ARE EXPECTED. THE 10-M WINDS ON THE GFSMOS PRODUCT FOR KALB ARE
IMPRESSIVE IN THE 18-24 KT SUSTAINED RANGE. THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER PROFILES SHOW 40 KTS WILL NEED TO MIXED FROM 2.5 KFT AGL
FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET. ANY WIND FLAGS WILL BE
MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. IT DOES LOOK PLAUSIBLE THAT SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION AND NRN TACONICS. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED
LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE PM FOR A COATING TO PERHAPS A HALF AN
INCH OF SNOW. SOME OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SRN GREENS IN THE
SRN VT...TACONICS...AND NRN BERKS COULD GET AN INCH OR TWO OR
SNOW. THE ADVISORY AREA HIGHLIGHTED WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 3 TO 6
INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED 4 TO 8 INCH AMOUNTS. THE INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE SHEAR INCREASES SO THE
DOWNSTREAM TRAJECTORY WILL DECREASE. MAX TEMPS MAY BE IN THE
MORNING...AND TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY IN THE AFTERNOON
IN THE POTENT COLD ADVECTION REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS CRASH INTO THE
-17C TO -22C RANGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE M20S TO L30S FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND EAST...AND TEENS TO
L20S NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE SRN DACKS.
WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.
MONDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD...AS THE FLOW
BACKS WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE/CLIPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM
QUEBEC WITH A VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED. THE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH...AND FRIGID TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE REGION REGION...AND
ZERO TO 10 ABOVE IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER TEENS IN
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS WITH THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEK...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE.
A QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT GOOD FORCING. LOOKING AT HIGH RATIO SNOWFALL. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE NEXT QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE WILL BE IN ITS HEELS. WILL HAVE CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SNOW SQUALLS
AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM/FRONT WILL BE THE ONE THAT OPENS THE DOOR TO THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS WITH ITS PASSAGE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE MODELED TO DROP TO -25 TO -30 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUMMET RANGING FROM AROUND 1 DEGREES
TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO...AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE TIGHT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ADVANCING HIGH
RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
BITTER TEMPERATURES AND BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TO
LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILL VALUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THURSDAY WILL BE A FRIGID DAY WITH SOME HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE LAST
TIME IS WAS THIS COLD WAS BACK ON JANUARY 22 2014...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN ALBANY WAS ONLY 9 DEGREES WITH A LOW OF 6 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. LOOKING AT SIMILAR VALUES. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WOULD EXPECT MULTI BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WHICH COULD MAY REACH INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK
BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOME IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM HOWEVER THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST AIR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH PASSING OVER EASTERN CANADA ITS
IN WAKE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. COULD BE LOOKING AT MORE LAKE
EFFECT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER STRUGGLES TO WARM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE
FREEZING AT KPOU AND KALB WITH 34 DEGREES. HOWEVER AT KPSF
TEMPERATURE HAS ONLY REACHED 32 DEGREES AND AT KGFL 30 DEGREES SO
FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE STEADY PRECIPITATION MOVED OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING HOWEVER REGIONAL RADARS TO OUR WEST INDICATE MORE ON THE WAY
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WHICH IS CAUGHT UP IN THE APPALACHIANS. THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE FORCED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE AREA
SHOULD BRIEFLY GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS/CEILINGS WILL LIFT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT
AND INCREASE IN SPEED. THEY WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY. HAVE KEPT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN KPOU TAF THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE HSA THROUGH TODAY.
MOST AREAS ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...WITH LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS ON
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING BRIEFLY OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION.
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND PER COLLABORATION
YESTERDAY WITH THE NERFC...THE HSA POINTS THAT GOES ABOVE ACTION
STAGE ARE WILLIAMSTOWN /WILM3/...AND GRANVILLE /GVVN6/ AT THIS
TIME. SINCE THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.
THEREAFTER...BITTER COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. SOME
FREEZE UP ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...ICE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE ACROSS RIVERS
AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ001.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ032-038>040-048>050-053-054-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ033-
041>043-082-083.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ038>040-082.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ014-
015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
800 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015
.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA ATOP A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST BEFORE CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE UPPER
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLDEST OF
THE ARCTIC AIR IS CURRENTLY STUCK TO THE NORTH OF THE TN
VALLEY...HOWEVER A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND DRIVE SOME MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY. WE HERE IN WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL CERTAINLY NOT
SEE THE BRUNT OF THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS...HOWEVER A NOTICEABLE (ALBEIT
BRIEF) COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS SITUATED BETWEEN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH...AND A LARGE SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHERN FL. SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
IS BEING SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WITH A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN ON WV EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE MID
LEVELS OF THE 06/00Z KTBW SOUNDING ARE SAMPLING THIS RIDGED
ENVIRONMENT WITH A VERY DRY LAYER (LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS) ABOVE
700MB.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA IN A POSITION NEAR THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES
ARE BEGINNING TO COOL OFF...HOWEVER EVEN BEHIND THIS
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE. LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN CHIEFLAND TO THE MIDDLE 50S AROUND
TAMPA BAY TO AROUND 60 DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS. NO RAIN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT DO TO THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND THE VERY DRY
MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
TUESDAY...
THE PATTERN ONLY VERY SLOWLY EVOLVES IN A NATURE TO BEGIN
SUPPRESSING THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH. NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SECOND DAY OF THE
WORK WEEK AS THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND SEASONABLE. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S AROUND TAMPA
BAY...AND MID/UPPER 70S FURTHER SOUTH.
HAVE A PLEASANT EVENING!
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND
SHOULD HOLD FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AT LEAST. LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS WILL ENTER THE
FORECAST. BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT APPEARS LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
FOR THE OUTER WATERS WILL EXPIRE. AS THE WINDS WEAKEN THEY WILL
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN BACK TO THE NORTH AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY. A MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND WILL SET UP WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BECOMING MUCH STRONGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE WATERS...HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS OR WIND GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 57 71 52 68 / 10 10 0 0
FMY 62 78 59 75 / 10 10 10 10
GIF 57 74 51 68 / 10 10 0 0
SRQ 58 72 53 69 / 10 10 0 0
BKV 50 70 41 67 / 10 10 0 0
SPG 60 70 56 67 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MROCZKA...MROCZKA
MARINE...DOUGHERTY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
908 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING....THEN VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL NORTH
OF THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH 1 AM...MAINLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER CLEARING OF HIGH CLOUDS. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT RESULTING IN A
QUIET NIGHT FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND THIN THIS EVENING AS THE
SUPPORTING JET STREAK PROPAGATES AWAY FROM THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY VEER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASSENT NOTED ON THE
285-290K SURFACES. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO
BE AT OR ABOVE 200 MB...SO EXTENSIVE MARINE BASED STRATOCUMULUS
APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER...BOTH THE RAP AND NAM12 HIGH
RESOLUTION SIMULATED CLOUD PRODUCTS DO SHOW SOME STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING ONSHORE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CAREFULLY AS IT MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY
AT THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 30S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG WEATHER STORY FOR THIS PERIOD WILL
BE THE VERY COLD/ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TUESDAY...WEAK DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH WESTERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS TO WEST-
NORTHWEST LATE. LOW TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S MOST AREAS.
WEDNESDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE BY LATE DAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA FROM WEST BY LATE DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO
35 MPH ARE EXPECTED...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT STILL STAYING
AT LEAST 8 TO 10 MPH. THESE WINDS...COMBINED WITH PLUMMETING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY MORNING...
WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES
INLAND AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THUS...A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION WITH
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO GET
OUT OF THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY MODE OF SURFACE HEAT LOSS TRANSITIONS
FROM ADVECTION TO RADIATION THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS
FORECAST WITH INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO AROUND 20 AND OTHER LOCALES
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THESE TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE FURTHER LOWERED IF
FUTURE MODELS TREND TOWARD AN EARLIER DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THURSDAY EVENING.
THE COLD IN-SITU AIRMASS MODIFIES SLIGHTLY BY FRIDAY SO WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50. NEXT WEEKEND...A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES WILL HELP PUSH AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND PRODUCE A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME. THERE ARE
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE AMOUNT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THE PRECIP COVERAGE. WE TRENDED TOWARD A
WETTER PATTERN WITH 20-30 POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP WILL SUPPRESS HIGHS TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT INCREASING MVFR LEVEL MOISTURE AS
WINDS VEER AND TEMPS WARM JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR UNLIKELY
AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE/ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
TONIGHT...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OVER OR JUST
EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT... N/NE WINDS MAINLY 15 KT
OR LESS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS VEERING
TOWARD THE E/SE ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND BEYOND. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2-3 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT BEYOND 20
NM.
NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 30
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS /GALE FORCE/ POSSIBLE. STRONG
SMALL CRAFT AND LOW END GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
FALL BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHT LEVELS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS
BEYOND 20 NM WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 FEET THROUGH THE DAY. WEAKER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NO
HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY EFFECT THE REGION WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER...BUT
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW HIGHLIGHTS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
611 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING....THEN VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL NORTH
OF THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT RESULTING IN A
QUIET NIGHT FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND THIN THIS EVENING AS THE
SUPPORTING JET STREAK PROPAGATES AWAY FROM THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY VEER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASSENT NOTED ON THE
285-290K SURFACES. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO
BE AT OR ABOVE 200 MB...SO EXTENSIVE MARINE BASED STRATOCUMULUS
APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER...BOTH THE RAP AND NAM12 HIGH
RESOLUTION SIMULATED CLOUD PRODUCTS DO SHOW SOME STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING ONSHORE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CAREFULLY AS IT MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY
AT THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 30S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG WEATHER STORY FOR THIS PERIOD WILL
BE THE VERY COLD/ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TUESDAY...WEAK DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH WESTERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS TO WEST-
NORTHWEST LATE. LOW TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S MOST AREAS.
WEDNESDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE BY LATE DAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA FROM WEST BY LATE DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO
35 MPH ARE EXPECTED...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT STILL STAYING
AT LEAST 8 TO 10 MPH. THESE WINDS...COMBINED WITH PLUMMETING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY MORNING...
WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES
INLAND AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THUS...A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION WITH
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO GET
OUT OF THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY MODE OF SURFACE HEAT LOSS TRANSITIONS
FROM ADVECTION TO RADIATION THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS
FORECAST WITH INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO AROUND 20 AND OTHER LOCALES
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THESE TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE FURTHER LOWERED IF
FUTURE MODELS TREND TOWARD AN EARLIER DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THURSDAY EVENING.
THE COLD IN-SITU AIRMASS MODIFIES SLIGHTLY BY FRIDAY SO WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50. NEXT WEEKEND...A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES WILL HELP PUSH AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND PRODUCE A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME. THERE ARE
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE AMOUNT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THE PRECIP COVERAGE. WE TRENDED TOWARD A
WETTER PATTERN WITH 20-30 POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP WILL SUPPRESS HIGHS TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT INCREASING MVFR LEVEL MOISTURE AS
WINDS VEER AND TEMPS WARM JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR UNLIKELY
AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE/ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
TONIGHT...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OVER OR JUST
EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT... N/NE WINDS MAINLY 15 KT
OR LESS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS VEERING
TOWARD THE E/SE ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND BEYOND. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2-3 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT BEYOND 20
NM.
NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 30
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS /GALE FORCE/ POSSIBLE. STRONG
SMALL CRAFT AND LOW END GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
FALL BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHT LEVELS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS
BEYOND 20 NM WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 FEET THROUGH THE DAY. WEAKER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NO
HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY EFFECT THE REGION WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER...BUT
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW HIGHLIGHTS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1209 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE RECENTLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 3...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM.
LATE THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS FOR TODAY/S FORECAST OBVIOUSLY
REVOLVES AROUND THE APPROACHING CONVECTIVE LINE...ITS TIMING...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
AND REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS WELL
OUTPACING THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT BY ABOUT 100-125 MILES AS IT NOW
RACES THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST INITIALIZATION
OF THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION...SO ITS TIMING FOR
THE AFTERNOON HAS BEEN USED THE MOST FOR THE TIMING. BASED ON
THIS...THE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES...INCLUDING TATTNALL/CANDLER/JENKINS COUNTIES ABOUT 18Z.
THIS WOULD THEN PUT THE CONVECTION INTO THE AN AREA ALONG A LINE
INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH METRO NORTH TO AROUND ALLENDALE AROUND 20Z.
FINALLY...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS LESS CERTAIN...THE CHARLESTON AREA
CAN EXPECT TO SEE THE LINE (IN WHATEVER STATE IT IS IN) AROUND
22Z.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS IS A SITUATION WE ARE ALL
TOO FAMILIAR WITH. WE HAVE A NICE AND IMPRESSIVE AMBIENT WIND
FIELD DEFINED BY 0-3 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50-60 KNOTS. AS ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE THE CASE
THOUGH...THE PRIMARY QUESTION FOCUSES ON THE PRESENCE OF BUOYANCY.
DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT PROVIDE MUCH
EVIDENCE FOR ANY SCATTERING OF CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE TO NO DIRECT
INSOLATION IS EXPECTED. RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A NOTABLE CAP
AT ABOUT 900 MB...BUT WHEN MODIFIED FOR A SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...IT APPEARS THAT THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME. IF
THIS OCCURS...BOTH THE RAP/HRRR GIVE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 750
J/KG...WITH A LARGE AREA APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. SO...THE MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT AS WITH ANY
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO WITHIN BOWING SEGMENTS. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL RESIDE.
OTHER THAN THE SEVERE WEATHER...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION THANKS TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL WINDS. RECENT WEB CAM IMAGES SHOW THAT SEA FOG HAS
BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE SHELF WATERS AND HAS DRIFTED
OFF THE DIRECT BEACH AREAS.
LAKE WINDS...WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THE POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALONG LAKE SHORES FOR LAKE MOULTRIE VALID
10 AM UNTIL 5 PM TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY WEAK BUT DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY. BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FROM THE WEST
LATER TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON
MONDAY THOUGH MODEST WNW FLOW AROUND 850 MB WILL SUPPORT DOWNSLOPE
WARMING AND HIGHS NEAR 60.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A BRIEF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING WSW LOW-LEVEL WINDS. WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE NW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH 20-25 KT OF WNW 850 MB FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ADIABATIC WARMING. WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS A
VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS DROPS SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF HAS
GENERALLY BEEN THE COLDER OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH IT
HAS MODERATED SOMEWHAT IN RECENT RUNS. NEVERTHELESS...A COLD 36 HRS
IS IN STORE. THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S...COINCIDENT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS. OUR LATEST APPARENT
TEMPERATURE GRIDS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT OUR CRITERIA FOR ISSUING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES INCREASED ON
DECEMBER 1ST 2014. THE NEW CRITERIA IS 15 DEGREES IN COASTAL
LOCATIONS OR 10 DEGREES INLAND. WE WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING ON THURSDAY WILL YIELD BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS. BASED ON THE LATEST THICKNESS PROGS WE LOWERED HIGHS TO
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST. THERE WERE EARLIER
INDICATIONS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD DECOUPLE AND ALLOW FOR LOW
TEMPS IN THE TEENS. MORE RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS PREVENTING
SURFACE WINDS FROM GOING CALM. WE MAINTAINED LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL BUT HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A BIT OF A BREAK OUT PRIOR TO BANDS OF
CONVECTIVE RAINS REACH THE TERMINALS AFTER MID AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE RAINS WITH GUSTS TOPPING 25 KT AT
KCHS AND 20 KT AT KSAV. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS FAVORING VFR TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LATE THIS MORNING...BASED ON RECENT WEB CAMS AND CHARLESTON HARBOR
PILOT BOAT REPORTS HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 6PM.
THE COOL STABLE NEAR SHORE WATERS TYPIFIED BY THE 5-7 KT OF WIND
OVERNIGHT AT GRAYS REEF WHILE TEMPS REACHING THE MID 60S ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST SUPPORTIVE OF 15 KT WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
RELEGATED TO WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN
OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY ONCE YOU GET AWAY
FROM THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE BUT WE MAINTAINED 4-6 FT SEAS TO
KEEP PERSISTENCE. THE HIGHEST SEAS IN NEAR SHORE LEGS SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF AMZ350. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL
BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER REACHES WHERE THE
WARMER SURFACE TEMPS OCCUR. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT WITH SOME JETTING OF THE W AND NW FLOW OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST. WE BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT FROM GRAYS REEF SEAWARD TO TREND.
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. FREQUENT 35 KT GUSTS ARE INCREASINGLY
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WARMER
WATERS BEYOND ABOUT 15 NM FROM SHORE. A PERIOD OF GALE
WATCHES/WARNINGS IS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES JAN 4...
CHS 77/2005 AND PREVIOUS...
CXM 75/1955...
SAV 80/2004...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JAN 4...
CHS 58/1950 AND PREVIOUS...
CXM 61/2007...
SAV 60/2004 AND PREVIOUS...
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330-350-
352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1135 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS FOR TODAY/S FORECAST OBVIOUSLY
REVOLVES AROUND THE APPROACHING CONVECTIVE LINE...ITS TIMING...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
AND REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS WELL
OUTPACING THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT BY ABOUT 100-125 MILES AS IT NOW
RACES THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST INITIALIZATION
OF THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION...SO ITS TIMING FOR
THE AFTERNOON HAS BEEN USED THE MOST FOR THE TIMING. BASED ON
THIS...THE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES...INCLUDING TATTNALL/CANDLER/JENKINS COUNTIES ABOUT 18Z.
THIS WOULD THEN PUT THE CONVECTION INTO THE AN AREA ALONG A LINE
INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH METRO NORTH TO AROUND ALLENDALE AROUND 20Z.
FINALLY...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS LESS CERTAIN...THE CHARLESTON AREA
CAN EXPECT TO SEE THE LINE (IN WHATEVER STATE IT IS IN) AROUND
22Z.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS IS A SITUATION WE ARE ALL
TOO FAMILIAR WITH. WE HAVE A NICE AND IMPRESSIVE AMBIENT WIND
FIELD DEFINED BY 0-3 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50-60 KNOTS. AS ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE THE CASE
THOUGH...THE PRIMARY QUESTION FOCUSES ON THE PRESENCE OF BUOYANCY.
DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT PROVIDE MUCH
EVIDENCE FOR ANY SCATTERING OF CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE TO NO DIRECT
INSOLATION IS EXPECTED. RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A NOTABLE CAP
AT ABOUT 900 MB...BUT WHEN MODIFIED FOR A SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...IT APPEARS THAT THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME. IF
THIS OCCURS...BOTH THE RAP/HRRR GIVE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 750
J/KG...WITH A LARGE AREA APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. SO...THE MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT AS WITH ANY
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO WITHIN BOWING SEGMENTS. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL RESIDE.
OTHER THAN THE SEVERE WEATHER...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION THANKS TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL WINDS. RECENT WEB CAM IMAGES SHOW THAT SEA FOG HAS
BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE SHELF WATERS AND HAS DRIFTED
OFF THE DIRECT BEACH AREAS.
LAKE WINDS...WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THE POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALONG LAKE SHORES FOR LAKE MOULTRIE VALID
10 AM UNTIL 5 PM TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY WEAK BUT DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY. BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FROM THE WEST
LATER TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON
MONDAY THOUGH MODEST WNW FLOW AROUND 850 MB WILL SUPPORT DOWNSLOPE
WARMING AND HIGHS NEAR 60.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A BRIEF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING WSW LOW-LEVEL WINDS. WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE NW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH 20-25 KT OF WNW 850 MB FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ADIABATIC WARMING. WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS A
VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS DROPS SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF HAS
GENERALLY BEEN THE COLDER OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH IT
HAS MODERATED SOMEWHAT IN RECENT RUNS. NEVERTHELESS...A COLD 36 HRS
IS IN STORE. THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S...COINCIDENT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS. OUR LATEST APPARENT
TEMPERATURE GRIDS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT OUR CRITERIA FOR ISSUING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES INCREASED ON
DECEMBER 1ST 2014. THE NEW CRITERIA IS 15 DEGREES IN COASTAL
LOCATIONS OR 10 DEGREES INLAND. WE WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING ON THURSDAY WILL YIELD BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS. BASED ON THE LATEST THICKNESS PROGS WE LOWERED HIGHS TO
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST. THERE WERE EARLIER
INDICATIONS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD DECOUPLE AND ALLOW FOR LOW
TEMPS IN THE TEENS. MORE RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS PREVENTING
SURFACE WINDS FROM GOING CALM. WE MAINTAINED LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL BUT HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENSIVE IFR CIGS THROUGH THE COASTAL CORRIDOR AT 12Z WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS RUNNING TOO STRONG TO BE A CONCERN FOR FOG/REDUCED VSBYS.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR CIGS WILL HANG IN THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFT TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
A BIT OF A BREAK OUT PRIOR TO BANDS OF CONVECTIVE RAINS REACH THE
TERMINALS AFTER MID AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD
OF THE RAINS WITH GUSTS TOPPING 25 KT AT KCHS AND 20 KT AT KSAV.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
FAVORING VFR TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LATE THIS MORNING...BASED ON RECENT WEB CAMS AND CHARLESTON HARBOR
PILOT BOAT REPORTS HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 6PM.
THE COOL STABLE NEAR SHORE WATERS TYPIFIED BY THE 5-7 KT OF WIND
OVERNIGHT AT GRAYS REEF WHILE TEMPS REACHING THE MID 60S ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST SUPPORTIVE OF 15 KT WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
RELEGATED TO WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN
OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY ONCE YOU GET AWAY
FROM THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE BUT WE MAINTAINED 4-6 FT SEAS TO
KEEP PERSISTENCE. THE HIGHEST SEAS IN NEAR SHORE LEGS SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF AMZ350. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL
BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER REACHES WHERE THE
WARMER SURFACE TEMPS OCCUR. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT WITH SOME JETTING OF THE W AND NW FLOW OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST. WE BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT FROM GRAYS REEF SEAWARD TO TREND.
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. FREQUENT 35 KT GUSTS ARE INCREASINGLY
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WARMER
WATERS BEYOND ABOUT 15 NM FROM SHORE. A PERIOD OF GALE
WATCHES/WARNINGS IS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES JAN 4...
CHS 77/2005 AND PREVIOUS...
CXM 75/1955...
SAV 80/2004...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JAN 4...
CHS 58/1950 AND PREVIOUS...
CXM 61/2007...
SAV 60/2004 AND PREVIOUS...
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330-350-
352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
730 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARING DAWN...SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY ENDED ALONG UPPER REACHES OF CHARLESTON
AND BERKELEY COUNTIES WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG OVER LAND AREAS AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE JUST TOO STRONG. OCCASIONAL SEA FOG WAS BRUSHING
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS BUT NOT EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE WARM SECTOR.
AN AXIS OF VORTICITY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SPORADIC LIGHT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES
INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT
WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED/POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST WESTERLY FLOW
WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG WARM SECTOR INTO THE REGION...MARKED
BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
SOME AREAS COULD REACH 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON IS WE SEE BREAKS
FOR A WHILE. FORECAST THINKING FROM LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH IN TIMING THE ADVANCING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TROPOSPHERIC WINDS COULD SUPPORT QUASI-
LINEAR CONVECTION INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND STRONG/ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LOCATION THAT CAUGHT OUR
FORECAST INTEREST EARLY THIS MORNING WAS ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GEORGIA. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RAP INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR
MUCAPES AND SBCAPES TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 BY
MID AFTERNOON. THIS BUOYANCY WHILE LIMITED BY A POOR 500 MB-700 MB
LAYER DOES OFFER SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS. THE 00Z NSSL WRF MODEL PAINTS THE
HIGHEST FORECAST REFLECTIVITIES WITH BETTER LINEAR CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION DOWN IN THIS REGION AS WELL.
IF TEMPS WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED ALONG THE CHARLESTON COASTAL
CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY WINDS OVER 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ON AREA BRIDGES BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
LAKE WINDS...WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THE POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALONG LAKE SHORES FOR LAKE MOULTRIE VALID
10 AM UNTIL 5 PM TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY WEAK BUT DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY. BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...
COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON MONDAY
THOUGH MODEST WNW FLOW AROUND 850 MB WILL SUPPORT DOWNSLOPE WARMING
AND HIGHS NEAR 60.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A BRIEF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING WSW LOW-LEVEL WINDS. WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE NW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH 20-25 KT OF WNW 850 MB FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ADIABATIC WARMING. WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS A
VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS DROPS SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF HAS
GENERALLY BEEN THE COLDER OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH IT
HAS MODERATED SOMEWHAT IN RECENT RUNS. NEVERTHELESS...A COLD 36 HRS
IS IN STORE. THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S...COINCIDENT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS. OUR LATEST APPARENT
TEMPERATURE GRIDS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT OUR CRITERIA FOR ISSUING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES INCREASED ON
DECEMBER 1ST 2014. THE NEW CRITERIA IS 15 DEGREES IN COASTAL
LOCATIONS OR 10 DEGREES INLAND. WE WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING ON THURSDAY WILL YIELD BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS. BASED ON THE LATEST THICKNESS PROGS WE LOWERED HIGHS TO
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST. THERE WERE EARLIER
INDICATIONS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD DECOUPLE AND ALLOW FOR LOW
TEMPS IN THE TEENS. MORE RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS PREVENTING
SURFACE WINDS FROM GOING CALM. WE MAINTAINED LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL BUT HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENSIVE IFR CIGS THROUGH THE COASTAL CORRIDOR AT 12Z WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS RUNNING TOO STRONG TO BE A CONCERN FOR FOG/REDUCED VSBYS.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR CIGS WILL HANG IN THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFT TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
A BIT OF A BREAK OUT PRIOR TO BANDS OF CONVECTIVE RAINS REACH THE
TERMINALS AFTER MID AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD
OF THE RAINS WITH GUSTS TOPPING 25 KT AT KCHS AND 20 KT AT KSAV.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
FAVORING VFR TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT OVER THE COOLEST SHELF WATERS
AND MAY BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE HAVE MARINE FOG ADVISORIES
OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS AND THE HARBOR THIS MORNING...EXTENSIONS
ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE COOL STABLE NEAR SHORE WATERS TYPIFIED BY THE 5-7 KT OF WIND
OVERNIGHT AT GRAYS REEF WHILE TEMPS REACHING THE MID 60S ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST SUPPORTIVE OF 15 KT WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
RELEGATED TO WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN
OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY ONCE YOU GET AWAY
FROM THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE BUT WE MAINTAINED 4-6 FT SEAS TO
KEEP PERSISTENCE. THE HIGHEST SEAS IN NEAR SHORE LEGS SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF AMZ350. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL
BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER REACHES WHERE THE
WARMER SURFACE TEMPS OCCUR. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT WITH SOME JETTING OF THE W AND NW FLOW OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST. WE BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT FROM GRAYS REEF SEAWARD TO TREND.
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. FREQUENT 35 KT GUSTS ARE INCREASINGLY
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WARMER
WATERS BEYOND ABOUT 15 NM FROM SHORE. A PERIOD OF GALE
WATCHES/WARNINGS IS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES JAN 4...
CHS 77/2005 AND PREVIOUS...
CXM 75/1955...
SAV 80/2004...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JAN 4...
CHS 58/1950 AND PREVIOUS...
CXM 61/2007...
SAV 60/2004 AND PREVIOUS...
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-350-
352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
456 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SCOURED OUT THE DENSE
FOG ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND PARTS OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA JUST PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST
AND THIS SHATTERED THE SHALLOW INVERSION THAT ALLOWED SEA FOG AND
ADVECTION FOG TO FLOURISH. A SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED EAST OF
I-95 OVERNIGHT AND THIS CONVECTION WAS ANCHORED ALONG A STRONG SPEED
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RADAR RAINFALL
PRODUCTS ESTIMATED THAT SOME AREAS HAVE SAW 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS
INLAND COLLETON/DORCHESTER/BERKELEY COUNTIES WHERE CELLS TRAINED ACROSS
THE SAME AREAS. OUR ENTIRE REGION NOW ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND TO SOME LOWER 70S ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. WINDS HAVE GUSTED OVER 35 MPH AT THE CHARLESTON
AIRPORT AHEAD OF THE BAND OF RAIN AND NOW LOW STRATUS WAS FILLING
BACK IN ACROSS SE GEORGIA WHERE SOME DRIER LOW LEVELS WERE PUNCHING
IN FROM THE SW. BOTH EVENTS INDICATIVE OF THE IMMENSE MESOSCALE
COMPLEXITIES WE HAVE SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE AXIS OF VORTICITY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES
INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED/POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE
A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG WARM SECTOR INTO THE REGION...MARKED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. SOME AREAS COULD REACH 80 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON IS WE SEE BREAKS FOR A WHILE. FORECAST THINKING FROM
LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN TIMING THE ADVANCING
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
COULD SUPPORT QUASI- LINEAR CONVECTION INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND
STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LOCATION THAT CAUGHT
OUR FORECAST INTEREST EARLY THIS MORNING WAS ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GEORGIA. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RAP INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPES
AND SBCAPES TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 BY MID
AFTERNOON. THIS BUOYANCY WHILE LIMITED BY A POOR 500 MB-700 MB
LAYER DOES OFFER SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS. THE 00Z NSSL WRF MODEL PAINTS THE HIGHEST
FORECAST REFLECTIVITIES WITH BETTER LINEAR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
DOWN IN THIS REGION AS WELL.
IF TEMPS WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED ALONG THE CHARLESTON COASTAL
CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY WINDS OVER 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ON AREA BRIDGES BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
LAKE WINDS...WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THE POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALONG LAKE SHORES FOR LAKE MOULTRIE VALID
10 AM UNTIL 5 PM TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY WEAK BUT DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY. BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...
COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON MONDAY
THOUGH MODEST WNW FLOW AROUND 850 MB WILL SUPPORT DOWNSLOPE WARMING
AND HIGHS NEAR 60.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A BRIEF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING WSW LOW-LEVEL WINDS. WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE NW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH 20-25 KT OF WNW 850 MB FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ADIABATIC WARMING. WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS A
VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS DROPS SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF HAS
GENERALLY BEEN THE COLDER OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH IT
HAS MODERATED SOMEWHAT IN RECENT RUNS. NEVERTHELESS...A COLD 36 HRS
IS IN STORE. THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S...COINCIDENT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS. OUR LATEST APPARENT
TEMPERATURE GRIDS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT OUR CRITERIA FOR ISSUING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES INCREASED ON
DECEMBER 1ST 2014. THE NEW CRITERIA IS 15 DEGREES IN COASTAL
LOCATIONS OR 10 DEGREES INLAND. WE WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING ON THURSDAY WILL YIELD BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS. BASED ON THE LATEST THICKNESS PROGS WE LOWERED HIGHS TO
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST. THERE WERE EARLIER
INDICATIONS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD DECOUPLE AND ALLOW FOR LOW
TEMPS IN THE TEENS. MORE RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS PREVENTING
SURFACE WINDS FROM GOING CALM. WE MAINTAINED LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL BUT HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE RAPIDLY IMPROVED AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS
WAS PUNCTUATED BY MUCH WARMER SURFACE TEMPS...STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND WEAKER INVERSIONS. THE NAM SHOWS SOME SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS OFF THE DECK THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH A POCKET OF DRIER AIR AT
925 MB. THIS WILL SPELL A RETURN OF IFR OR LIFR CIGS BUT DENSE
FOG REMAINS UNLIKELY. WE HAVE TEMPO PERIODS FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH AIRPORTS. IT WILL BE QUITE GUSTY TODAY IF
CLOUDS THIN AND THERE ARE SOME BREAKS LATE IN THE MORNING. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT OVERALL IMPROVING CONDITIONS
BECOMING LIKELY BY THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT OVER THE COOLEST SHELF WATERS
AND MAY BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE HAVE MARINE FOG ADVISORIES
OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS AND PER RECENT CALL WITH CHARLESTON PILOT
OFFICE WE MAY NEED TO RE-ISSUE IN THE HARBOR THIS MORNING. VSBYS
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
THE COOL STABLE NEAR SHORE WATERS TYPIFIED BY THE 5-7 KT OF WIND
OVERNIGHT AT GRAYS REEF WHILE TEMPS REACHING THE MID 60S ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST SUPPORTIVE OF 15 KT WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
RELEGATED TO WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN
OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY ONCE YOU GET AWAY
FROM THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE BUT WE MAINTAINED 4-6 FT SEAS TO
KEEP PERSISTENCE. THE HIGHEST SEAS IN NEAR SHORE LEGS SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF AMZ350. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL
BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER REACHES WHERE THE
WARMER SURFACE TEMPS OCCUR. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT WITH SOME JETTING OF THE W AND NW FLOW OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST. WE BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT FROM GRAYS REEF SEAWARD TO TREND.
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. FREQUENT 35 KT GUSTS ARE INCREASINGLY
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WARMER
WATERS BEYOND ABOUT 15 NM FROM SHORE. A PERIOD OF GALE
WATCHES/WARNINGS IS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES JAN 4...
CHS 77/2005 AND PREVIOUS...
CXM 75/1955...
SAV 80/2004...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JAN 4...
CHS 58/1950 AND PREVIOUS...
CXM 61/2007...
SAV 60/2004 AND PREVIOUS...
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-352-
354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
438 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SCOURED OUT THE DENSE
FOG ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND PARTS OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA JUST PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST
AND THIS SHATTERED THE SHALLOW INVERSION THAT ALLOWED SEA FOG AND
ADVECTION FOG TO FLOURISH. A SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED EAST OF
I-95 OVERNIGHT AND THIS CONVECTION WAS ANCHORED ALONG A STRONG SPEED
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RADAR RAINFALL
PRODUCTS ESTIMATED THAT SOME AREAS HAVE SAW 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS
INLAND COLLETON/DORCHESTER/BERKELEY COUNTIES WHERE CELLS TRAINED ACROSS
THE SAME AREAS. OUR ENTIRE REGION NOW ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND TO SOME LOWER 70S ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. WINDS HAVE GUSTED OVER 35 MPH AT THE CHARLESTON
AIRPORT AHEAD OF THE BAND OF RAIN AND NOW LOW STRATUS WAS FILLING
BACK IN ACROSS SE GEORGIA WHERE SOME DRIER LOW LEVELS WERE PUNCHING
IN FROM THE SW. BOTH EVENTS INDICATIVE OF THE IMMENSE MESOSCALE
COMPLEXITIES WE HAVE SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE AXIS OF VORTICITY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES
INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED/POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE
A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG WARM SECTOR INTO THE REGION...MARKED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. SOME AREAS COULD REACH 80 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON IS WE SEE BREAKS FOR A WHILE. FORECAST THINKING FROM
LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN TIMING THE ADVANCING
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
COULD SUPPORT QUASI- LINEAR CONVECTION INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND
STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LOCATION THAT CAUGHT
OUR FORECAST INTEREST EARLY THIS MORNING WAS ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GEORGIA. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RAP INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPES
AND SBCAPES TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 BY MID
AFTERNOON. THIS BUOYANCY WHILE LIMITED BY A POOR 500 MB-700 MB
LAYER DOES OFFER SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS. THE 00Z NSSL WRF MODEL PAINTS THE HIGHEST
FORECAST REFLECTIVITIES WITH BETTER LINEAR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
DOWN IN THIS REGION AS WELL.
IF TEMPS WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED ALONG THE CHARLESTON COASTAL
CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY WINDS OVER 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ON AREA BRIDGES BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
LAKE WINDS...WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THE POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALONG LAKE SHORES FOR LAKE MOULTRIE VALID
10 AM UNTIL 5 PM TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY WEAK BUT DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY. BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...
COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON MONDAY
THOUGH MODEST WNW FLOW AROUND 850 MB WILL SUPPORT DOWNSLOPE WARMING
AND HIGHS NEAR 60.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A BRIEF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING WSW LOW-LEVEL WINDS. WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE NW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH 20-25 KT OF WNW 850 MB FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ADIABATIC WARMING. WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS A
VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS DROPS SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF HAS
GENERALLY BEEN THE COLDER OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH IT
HAS MODERATED SOMEWHAT IN RECENT RUNS. NEVERTHELESS...A COLD 36 HRS
IS IN STORE. THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S...COINCIDENT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS. OUR LATEST APPARENT
TEMPERATURE GRIDS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT OUR CRITERIA FOR ISSUING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES INCREASED ON
DECEMBER 1ST 2014. THE NEW CRITERIA IS 15 DEGREES IN COASTAL
LOCATIONS OR 10 DEGREES INLAND. WE WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING ON THURSDAY WILL YIELD BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS. BASED ON THE LATEST THICKNESS PROGS WE LOWERED HIGHS TO
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST. THERE WERE EARLIER
INDICATIONS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD DECOUPLE AND ALLOW FOR LOW
TEMPS IN THE TEENS. MORE RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS PREVENTING
SURFACE WINDS FROM GOING CALM. WE MAINTAINED LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL BUT HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE RAPIDLY IMPROVED AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS
WAS PUNCTUATED BY MUCH WARMER SURFACE TEMPS...STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND WEAKER INVERSIONS. THE NAM SHOWS SOME SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS OFF THE DECK THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH A POCKET OF DRIER AIR AT
925 MB. THIS WILL SPELL A RETURN OF IFR OR LIFR CIGS BUT DENSE
FOG REMAINS UNLIKELY. WE HAVE TEMPO PERIODS FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH AIRPORTS. IT WILL BE QUITE GUSTY TODAY IF
CLOUDS THIN AND THERE ARE SOME BREAKS LATE IN THE MORNING. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT OVERALL IMPROVING CONDITIONS
BECOMING LIKELY BY THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
AT 3 AM...THE CHARLESTON PILOT BOAT REPORTED DECENT VSBYS OUT AT
BUOY CHARLIE BUT DID ENCOUNTER PATCHY FOG BANKS NEAR SHORE. WE
HAVE LITTLE DATA THIS MORNING BUT ARE JUST FINDING OUT THE FOG IS
NOW MORE EXTENSIVE AT 430 AM. ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED ONCE AGAIN.
THE COOL STABLE NEAR SHORE WATERS TYPIFIED BY THE 5-7 KT OF WIND
OVERNIGHT AT GRAYS REEF WHILE TEMPS REACHING THE MID 60S ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST SUPPORTIVE OF 15 KT WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
RELEGATED TO WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN
OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY ONCE YOU GET AWAY
FROM THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE BUT WE MAINTAINED 4-6 FT SEAS TO
KEEP PERSISTENCE. THE HIGHEST SEAS IN NEAR SHORE LEGS SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF AMZ350. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL
BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER REACHES WHERE THE
WARMER SURFACE TEMPS OCCUR. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT WITH SOME JETTING OF THE W AND NW FLOW OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST. WE BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT FROM GRAYS REEF SEAWARD TO TREND.
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. FREQUENT 35 KT GUSTS ARE INCREASINGLY
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WARMER
WATERS BEYOND ABOUT 15 NM FROM SHORE. A PERIOD OF GALE
WATCHES/WARNINGS IS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES JAN 4...
CHS 77/2005 AND PREVIOUS...
CXM 75/1955...
SAV 80/2004...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JAN 4...
CHS 58/1950 AND PREVIOUS...
CXM 61/2007...
SAV 60/2004 AND PREVIOUS...
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1248 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015/
.SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE NW GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT...
.HEAVY RAIN LIKELY MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR REFINEMENTS MADE TO GRIDS SINCE LAST DISCUSSION /SEE
BELOW/ BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. APPEARS
LINE OF CONVECTION STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE INTO NW GEORGIA AFTER
06Z THEN PUSH INTO ATL METRO AROUND 11-12Z WHILE ON A WEAKENING
TREND. WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE AND FOG WITH SCT -SHRA TO CONTINUE
UNTIL THEN.
PRECIP SHOULD END QUICKLY BEHIND MAIN PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE.
HAVE MANUALLY DRAWN POPS AS LACK OF GOOD HOURLY MODEL GUIDANCE
EXISTS TODAY. COULD SEE VERY ISOLD CONVECTION BEHIND THIS LINE SUN
AFTERNOON BUT SUBJECTIVE EXPERIENCE IN THIS PATTERN IS COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE.
WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SUN AND
SUN EVENING.
SNELSON
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. TUESDAYS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE WERE SOME EARLIER DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
LONGER TERM MODELS WITH FORECAST MINS AND MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER AND CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF VALUES.
IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...BREEZY OR EVEN WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. VALUES COULD
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND BRING LOW WIND CHILLS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE FAIRLY QUICKLY FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
NLISTEMAA
HYDROLOGY...
STILL ON TRACK TO SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS OVER 1.5 INCHES
CONFINED TO NE GA. BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION AND FFG HAVE DECIDED
NOT TO ISSUE ANY KIND OF FLOOD WATCH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS EVENING.
SNELSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015/
UPDATE... NEAR TERM FCST APPEARS ON TRACK. MAIN CONCERN IS
POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS AND HVY RAIN. 12Z SYNOPTIC MODELS AND
HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATING LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO NW
CORNER AROUND OR AFTER 06Z. NAM AND GFS 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
/35-45KTS/ AND MLCAPE /100-250 J/KG/ FAVORABLE FOR QLCS STORMS
WITH ISOLD WIND DMG AND EVEN BRIEF TORNADO POSSIBLE IN THE NW
1/3RD OF GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...MAINLY NORTH OF I-85.
LATEST QPF GUIDANCE INDICATING 1 TO 2 INCHES THRU 00Z MON WITH
ONLY NE GA AREA EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 1.5 INCHES. 3HR FFG IS QUITE
LOW /2-2.5 INCHES/ IN NORTH GA DUE TO ANTECEDENT RAINFALL THE LAST
36 HRS. WILL BE COLLABORATING AND LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE DATA
BEFORE DECIDING BUT FOR NOW HOLDING OFF ON WATCH.
SNELSON
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING FORECAST IS ONGOING TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT ERODES WEDGEQUICKLY
FROM SW TO NE AND CONVERTS LIFR CONDITIONS TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY
MVFR. SUCH IS THE CASE RIGHT NOW OVER ATL AS OVC002 HAS
TRANSITIONED TO OVC008 AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME
MVFR BEFORE MAIN RAIN SHIELD MOVES BACK IN. TIMING OF +SHRA STILL
LOOKS GOOD FOR AROUND 14Z WITH ISOLD TSRA AS WELL. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF TS INTO THE TAF SET.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR TO DEVELOP IN POST FRONT ENVIRONMENT AND
BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY AS WELL
WITH VALUES CLOSE TO 25 KTS LIKELY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TS POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 35 54 32 / 100 10 0 0
ATLANTA 62 34 50 31 / 100 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 58 29 46 26 / 100 10 5 0
CARTERSVILLE 61 31 46 28 / 100 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 67 36 53 33 / 100 10 0 0
GAINESVILLE 61 33 50 31 / 100 10 0 0
MACON 69 37 55 33 / 100 10 5 0
ROME 60 30 45 26 / 100 10 5 0
PEACHTREE CITY 63 34 51 28 / 100 10 0 0
VIDALIA 75 42 58 39 / 80 70 5 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
907 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...
302 PM CST
TONIGHT...
SYNOPTIC/FORCING DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW MOVING ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER. SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
IOWA WITH A WARM ADVECTION RIBBON EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MANY SITES ACROSS IOWA ARE REPORTING 1/4 TO 1/2SM
VSBY WITH STRONG REFLECTIVITY ON THE RADAR MOSAIC. GROUND REPORTS
THUS FAR INDICATE INCH PER HOURS AMOUNTS WITH NEAR 0.10 INCH LIQUID
LEADING TO 10-11:1 SNOW RATIOS. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS
SHOW THAT THE BEST FGEN FORCING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
TO HALF OF THE ARA THIS EVENING CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT
THAT IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. HEAVIEST LIQUID SHOULD
FALL JUST NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WHICH WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP SNOW GROWTH ZONE BUT
ALIGNMENT OF BEST ASCENT VARIES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERN AREAS
ENTRENCHED IN THE DEEPER COLD AIR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE FORCING
ABOVE THE BEST SNOW GROWTH ZONE WHILE AREAS SOUTH SEE A BETTER
ALIGNMENT. THIS MAY BE WHAT IS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WHERE
LOWER RATIOS HAVE BEEN REPORTED THUS FAR /SMALLER FLAKE SIZE AND
LESS FLUFF TO ACCUMULATION/.
ACCUMULATION/TIMING DISCUSSION...WITH SNOW QUICKLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD HAVE BUMPED UP POPS AFTER 22Z IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
SOUTHWEST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK RAMP UP IN INTENSITY BY
AROUND 00Z WITH A 4-5 HOUR WINDOW OF STRONG FORCING BEFORE THINGS
TAPER AROUND AND AFTER 06Z. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW
FOR SNOW BEFORE THINGS QUICKLY EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE EXPECTATION OF 15-18:1 RATIOS FOR NOW. BEST
FORCING...ALIGNMENT OF FORCING WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...AND
DURATION OF FORCING CONTINUE TO BE ALIGNED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA
WITH THESE ELEMENTS LESS ALIGNED TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE
TIGHTENED UP THE ACCUMULATION GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA SOMEWHAT TO
SHOW A LITTLE BIT LESS IN FAR NORTHEAST IL. AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A MENDOTA TO SOUTH CHICAGO METRO TO RENSSELAER LOOK TO
SEE SNOW FALL ACCUMULATION RATES OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR LEADING
TO A BROAD AREA OF 3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS WITH AREAS ALONG A AND SOUTH
OF A STREATOR TO WATSEKA TO FOWLER LINE SEEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
EVEN 5 TO 7 INCHES.
HEADLINE AND IMPACTS DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA GIVEN EXPECTED AMOUNTS.
HAVE MADE AN EARLY UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE FAR
SOUTH GIVEN THE EXPECTED BETTER BANDING AND BETTER ALIGNMENT OF
FORCING ETC. DISCUSSED ABOVE. SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ACCUMULATION RATE
WILL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH RATES AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR AND
POSSIBLY TOWARDS 1.5 IN/HR IN THE FAR SOUTH MAKING SNOW REMOVAL
DIFFICULT...NOT TO MENTION LIMITING VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES. DESPITE LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL
EXPECT A DECENT ACCUMULATION RATE LEADING TO TRAVEL HAZARDS.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
325 PM CST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT THE SNOW TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEN QUICKLY TO THE
WEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LAKE SNOW SHOWERS COULD ORGANIZE
ENOUGH TO IMPACT PORTER COUNTY FOR A VERY SHORT TIME BEFORE DAYBREAK
BUT THEY WOULD QUICKLY END. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT A REINFORCING HIGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL
QUICKLY MERGE WITH IT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME...A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS.
ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY EVENING. IT
WILL BE QUITE SHEARED OUT BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE
INCREASINGLY COLD AIR TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD AIR. WITH THE AREA BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE BUILDING HIGH TO THE WEST BREEZY WETS
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING SOUTHWEST. THE
INITIAL ISSUE WILL BE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VSBY LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL SO WILL NEED TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS LATER TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL FALL TO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH LITTLE RECOVERY WEDNESDAY...THEN FALL TO -5 TO -15 OR SO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED WIND CHILL HEADLINES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS WILL
HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW DUE TO THE ARRIVING SNOW EVENT. MOST AREAS
OF ILLINOIS LOOK TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA AND SOUTHERN AREAS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA MAY BE IN HIGH END ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERALL
EXPECT WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO AROUND -35 DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS THURSDAY
ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM FORM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MODEST WARMING...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE MODERATION OF TEMPS TO
THE TEENS. THE PASSING TROUGH MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER THURSDAY BUT WILL NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE
THIS. THINGS COOL SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY BUT THE BIG TROUGH LOOKS TO
SHIFT EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
RESULTING IN A MODERATION OF TEMPS. EMBEDDED WAVES MAY BRING SOME
CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS WELL.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* SNOW WITH IFR CIGS/LIFR VIS THRU 06Z...SLOW IMPROVEMENT THRU 08Z
THEN SNOW ENDING BETWEEN 08Z-11Z WITH LIFTING CIGS.
* STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING NORTHWEST
TUESDAY EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LEADING EDGE OF SNOW CONTINUES SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS INTO
NORTHWEST IL AS OF 00Z. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING JUST A BIT ARRIVING
AT RFD BY 01Z AND TO ORD/MDW BETWEEN 02Z-03Z. NUMEROUS LOCATIONS
REPORTING VIS UNDER 3/4SM WITH SHORT TERM/HIGH RES GUIDANCE ALL
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A PERIOD OF VISIBILITIES UNDER 3/4SM BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANGES FROM THE 22Z. BEST LIFT
AND FORCING IS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z...SO
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS/VIS WITH SNOW ENDING BETWEEN 08Z-11Z...
FROM THE NORTHWEST. CIGS LIKELY TO BECOME VFR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10KT WILL TURN MORE MORE SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING
AND THEN BECOME SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WITH DIRECTIONS UNCERTAIN AND
POSSIBLY REMAINING WESTERLY. WINDS WILL THEN TURN NORTHWEST TOWARD
MORNING AND INCREASING UP TO 10 KT. WESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO 25-30KTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY EVENING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH FOR SNOW TIMING AND CIGS/VIS.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS TONIGHT...HIGH FOR TUESDAY. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEDNESDAY...BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE. STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
* THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
319 PM CST
THE ROGER BLOUGH WHICH HAS BEEN COMING DOWN THE WISCONSIN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND IS CROSSING THE SOUTH END HAS BEEN REPORTING WAVES
AROUND 5 FT THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WAVES SHOULD BE SUBSIDING
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF
THE LAKE AND IS FOLLOWED BY A WEAK LOW...ALLOWING WINDS TO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM EARLIER GALES. WAVES BUILD AGAIN
TOMORROW AS WEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
HIGH. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE GROWTH OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSES INTO THE MIDWEST AND WINDS
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING AT
LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG
NORTHWEST GUSTS.
AFTER THE GALE AND FREEZING SPRAY EVENT TOWARD MIDWEEK...THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGS CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STRONG WINDS AND
HIGH WAVES ON THE LAKE...THOUGH THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS COLD.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011 UNTIL 6 AM
TUESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ019 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM TUESDAY TO
3 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
858 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
Fast moving clipper system pushing through central Illinois this
evening bringing widespread snow to the area, with reports so far
ranging to around 3 inches in a corridor from near Galesburg to
Bloomington. This corridor will remain the prime location for
additional accumulations which should total in excess of 6 inches
by the time the main accumulations with this storm end around
midnight. Totals around an inch or two are still expected as far
south as Springfield to Mattoon. Very cold temperatures in the
teens and even some single digits accompany the snow, so it should
be quite light and easily produce minor blowing and drifting
despite the relatively modest winds of around 10 mph accompanying
this storm. Current forecasts appear in good shape with the
current storm trends and no significant updates have been
necessary so far.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
The 12z models continue to show a short duration, high-intensity
snow event this evening. Light snow has already developed across
our SW counties, which the HRRR shows will expand northward by 6
pm and intensify this evening. The surface low track is progged to
go across IL on a line from Pittsfield to Effingham, which
generally fits our current snowfall forecast coverage. One
additional concern is trying to pinpoint the location of the
traditional 60-80 mile wide band of heaviest snowfall. At this
point, it looks like it will extend along and just north of the
I-74 corridor. Satellite and radar images are confirming the
development of a robust frontogenetical circulation upstream
across NE SD, SW MN, and Iowa. Model analysis shows that to be in
the 850-700 mb layer. The strongest axis of this F-gen circ is
projected to advance across our northern counties this evening.
Bufkit sounding analysis for sites along the I-74 corridor
continues to indicate the co- location of the max omega, 80+% RH,
and dendritic growth zone for several hours this evening. Those
conditions will translate to the production of large, fluffy
snowflakes. Snowfall rates in this axis will likely climb between
1-1.5" per hour. Additional small- scale bands of heavier snow
could develop in areas farther south and north of the primary
band, so we kept the snow totals on the higher side of advisory
all the way through Lincoln to Mattoon, where a range of 2-5" is
expected. A sharp southern edge remains indicated by most of the
model suite, with locations south of Springfield and Mattoon
likely seeing a dusting to 1 inch.
In addition, after coordination with DVN, LOT, and IND, we decided to
upgrade the I-74 corridor counties from Advisory to Warning due to
the potential for more widespread 6-7" snowfall totals.
The southeast winds this evening will not be much stronger that 10
mph, but the fluffy snow may be light enough for some minor drifting
along roadways.
Snowfall will rapidly diminish from west to east late this evening
and after midnight, as the clipper races into southern Indiana/
Kentucky and weakens. Additional snow accums after midnight will be
light, with the best chances of more than a half inch mainly east of
Champaign to Paris. Most areas will just see some lingering flurries
for a few hours after midnight.
Low temps tonight will drop into the 5-10 range north, with around
20 from Flora to Lawrenceville.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
The bitterly cold airmass will dominate the remainder of the
forecast. Models are still on track with the intense cold that will
follow tonight`s clipper.
Tuesday will see skies begin to clear out from west to east during
the afternoon, and W-NW winds increase. Blowing and drifting
snow may develop as the fluffy snow gets pushed around, causing
travel problems on north-south roads.
On Wednesday, an unusually strong surface high, on the order of 1058
mb, will build southeast through the Dakotas, before settling into
the Ohio Valley by early Thursday. The strong pressure contrast will
result in northwest winds of 15-25 mph Tuesday night and Wednesday,
with some gusts to over 30 mph. Lobe of -24C air at 850 mb will
pivot through the Midwest on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday likely to
remain below zero across the northern CWA, with lows Wednesday night
10-15 below zero north of I-74. Wind chill warnings and advisories
will be needed for late Tuesday night into Thursday morning, as most
of the forecast area sees wind chills 15-25 below with lower than
-25 across the north. Have decided to hold off on adding wind chill
headlines to the mix, due to the winter storm expected tonight
across much of the same area.
The next clipper system is projected to remain across southern
Canada on Thursday, dragging a cold front across northern IL
Thursday night. At this point, we are keeping snow out of the
forecast for Thur night. However, as the system becomes better
defined in a couple days, we may need to add a mention of light snow
for at least our northern counties.
Behind that cold front we will see a reinforcing push of cold air,
but not as cold as the mid-week airmass. We still expect very cold
conditions as wind chills remain below zero on Friday morning and
especially Saturday morning when -10F wind chills develop. For the
weekend, we are still seeing phasing differences in the northern and
southern jet branches. A couple of shortwaves could progress across
IL during the weekend, but timing remains a question. There would be
a period of light snow with any weak disturbances that move across
the area.
Some relief from the cold is projected for next Monday, as highs
climb into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
Fast moving storm system moving into central Illinois this evening
rapidly transitioning conditions from VFR to IFR, with LIFR and
local VLIFR expected from 01Z-07Z. Heaviest snowfall will affect
terminals KPIA-KBMI-KCMI with KSPI-KDEC on the southern edge of
heavier snowfall. System will move rapidly east after 07Z-09Z with
slowly improving cigs/vsbys overnight while light snow flurries
continue. VFR expected by 15Z. Breezy west winds 10g20 kts
developing Tuesday afternoon could produce local minor blowing
snow.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Tuesday FOR ILZ027>031-037-
038-045-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Tuesday FOR ILZ036-
041>044-053>057.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...HJS/Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
621 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...
302 PM CST
TONIGHT...
SYNOPTIC/FORCING DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW MOVING ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER. SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
IOWA WITH A WARM ADVECTION RIBBON EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MANY SITES ACROSS IOWA ARE REPORTING 1/4 TO 1/2SM
VSBY WITH STRONG REFLECTIVITY ON THE RADAR MOSAIC. GROUND REPORTS
THUS FAR INDICATE INCH PER HOURS AMOUNTS WITH NEAR 0.10 INCH LIQUID
LEADING TO 10-11:1 SNOW RATIOS. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS
SHOW THAT THE BEST FGEN FORCING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
TO HALF OF THE ARA THIS EVENING CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT
THAT IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. HEAVIEST LIQUID SHOULD
FALL JUST NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WHICH WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP SNOW GROWTH ZONE BUT
ALIGNMENT OF BEST ASCENT VARIES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERN AREAS
ENTRENCHED IN THE DEEPER COLD AIR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE FORCING
ABOVE THE BEST SNOW GROWTH ZONE WHILE AREAS SOUTH SEE A BETTER
ALIGNMENT. THIS MAY BE WHAT IS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WHERE
LOWER RATIOS HAVE BEEN REPORTED THUS FAR /SMALLER FLAKE SIZE AND
LESS FLUFF TO ACCUMULATION/.
ACCUMULATION/TIMING DISCUSSION...WITH SNOW QUICKLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD HAVE BUMPED UP POPS AFTER 22Z IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
SOUTHWEST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK RAMP UP IN INTENSITY BY
AROUND 00Z WITH A 4-5 HOUR WINDOW OF STRONG FORCING BEFORE THINGS
TAPER AROUND AND AFTER 06Z. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW
FOR SNOW BEFORE THINGS QUICKLY EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE EXPECTATION OF 15-18:1 RATIOS FOR NOW. BEST
FORCING...ALIGNMENT OF FORCING WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...AND
DURATION OF FORCING CONTINUE TO BE ALIGNED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA
WITH THESE ELEMENTS LESS ALIGNED TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE
TIGHTENED UP THE ACCUMULATION GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA SOMEWHAT TO
SHOW A LITTLE BIT LESS IN FAR NORTHEAST IL. AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A MENDOTA TO SOUTH CHICAGO METRO TO RENSSELAER LOOK TO
SEE SNOW FALL ACCUMULATION RATES OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR LEADING
TO A BROAD AREA OF 3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS WITH AREAS ALONG A AND SOUTH
OF A STREATOR TO WATSEKA TO FOWLER LINE SEEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
EVEN 5 TO 7 INCHES.
HEADLINE AND IMPACTS DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA GIVEN EXPECTED AMOUNTS.
HAVE MADE AN EARLY UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE FAR
SOUTH GIVEN THE EXPECTED BETTER BANDING AND BETTER ALIGNMENT OF
FORCING ETC. DISCUSSED ABOVE. SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ACCUMULATION RATE
WILL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH RATES AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR AND
POSSIBLY TOWARDS 1.5 IN/HR IN THE FAR SOUTH MAKING SNOW REMOVAL
DIFFICULT...NOT TO MENTION LIMITING VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES. DESPITE LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL
EXPECT A DECENT ACCUMULATION RATE LEADING TO TRAVEL HAZARDS.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
325 PM CST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT THE SNOW TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEN QUICKLY TO THE
WEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LAKE SNOW SHOWERS COULD ORGANIZE
ENOUGH TO IMPACT PORTER COUNTY FOR A VERY SHORT TIME BEFORE DAYBREAK
BUT THEY WOULD QUICKLY END. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT A REINFORCING HIGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL
QUICKLY MERGE WITH IT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME...A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS.
ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY EVENING. IT
WILL BE QUITE SHEARED OUT BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE
INCREASINGLY COLD AIR TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD AIR. WITH THE AREA BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE BUILDING HIGH TO THE WEST BREEZY WETS
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING SOUTHWEST. THE
INITIAL ISSUE WILL BE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VSBY LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL SO WILL NEED TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS LATER TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL FALL TO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH LITTLE RECOVERY WEDNESDAY...THEN FALL TO -5 TO -15 OR SO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED WIND CHILL HEADLINES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS WILL
HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW DUE TO THE ARRIVING SNOW EVENT. MOST AREAS
OF ILLINOIS LOOK TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA AND SOUTHERN AREAS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA MAY BE IN HIGH END ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERALL
EXPECT WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO AROUND -35 DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS THURSDAY
ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM FORM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MODEST WARMING...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE MODERATION OF TEMPS TO
THE TEENS. THE PASSING TROUGH MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER THURSDAY BUT WILL NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE
THIS. THINGS COOL SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY BUT THE BIG TROUGH LOOKS TO
SHIFT EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
RESULTING IN A MODERATION OF TEMPS. EMBEDDED WAVES MAY BRING SOME
CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS WELL.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 02Z AND 03Z...WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS
OF IFR CIGS AND LIFR VIS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z.
* SNOW ENDING BETWEEN 08Z-11Z WITH LIFTING CIGS.
* STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING NORTHWEST
TUESDAY EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LEADING EDGE OF SNOW CONTINUES SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS INTO
NORTHWEST IL AS OF 00Z. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING JUST A BIT ARRIVING
AT RFD BY 01Z AND TO ORD/MDW BETWEEN 02Z-03Z. NUMEROUS LOCATIONS
REPORTING VIS UNDER 3/4SM WITH SHORT TERM/HIGH RES GUIDANCE ALL
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A PERIOD OF VISIBILITIES UNDER 3/4SM BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANGES FROM THE 22Z. BEST LIFT
AND FORCING IS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z...SO
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS/VIS WITH SNOW ENDING BETWEEN 08Z-11Z...
FROM THE NORTHWEST. CIGS LIKELY TO BECOME VFR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10KT WILL TURN MORE MORE SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING
AND THEN BECOME SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WITH DIRECTIONS UNCERTAIN AND
POSSIBLY REMAINING WESTERLY. WINDS WILL THEN TURN NORTHWEST TOWARD
MORNING AND INCREASING UP TO 10 KT. WESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO 25-30KTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY EVENING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH FOR SNOW TIMING AND CIGS/VIS.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS TONIGHT...HIGH FOR TUESDAY. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEDNESDAY...BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE. STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
* THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
319 PM CST
THE ROGER BLOUGH WHICH HAS BEEN COMING DOWN THE WISCONSIN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND IS CROSSING THE SOUTH END HAS BEEN REPORTING WAVES
AROUND 5 FT THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WAVES SHOULD BE SUBSIDING
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF
THE LAKE AND IS FOLLOWED BY A WEAK LOW...ALLOWING WINDS TO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM EARLIER GALES. WAVES BUILD AGAIN
TOMORROW AS WEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
HIGH. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE GROWTH OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSES INTO THE MIDWEST AND WINDS
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING AT
LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG
NORTHWEST GUSTS.
AFTER THE GALE AND FREEZING SPRAY EVENT TOWARD MIDWEEK...THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGS CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STRONG WINDS AND
HIGH WAVES ON THE LAKE...THOUGH THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS COLD.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011 UNTIL 6 AM
TUESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ019 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 PM TUESDAY TO 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-
LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-
LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 PM TUESDAY TO 3 PM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
604 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
The 12z models continue to show a short duration, high-intensity
snow event this evening. Light snow has already developed across
our SW counties, which the HRRR shows will expand northward by 6
pm and intensify this evening. The surface low track is progged to
go across IL on a line from Pittsfield to Effingham, which
generally fits our current snowfall forecast coverage. One
additional concern is trying to pinpoint the location of the
traditional 60-80 mile wide band of heaviest snowfall. At this
point, it looks like it will extend along and just north of the
I-74 corridor. Satellite and radar images are confirming the
development of a robust frontogenetical circulation upstream
across NE SD, SW MN, and Iowa. Model analysis shows that to be in
the 850-700 mb layer. The strongest axis of this F-gen circ is
projected to advance across our northern counties this evening.
Bufkit sounding analysis for sites along the I-74 corridor
continues to indicate the co- location of the max omega, 80+% RH,
and dendritic growth zone for several hours this evening. Those
conditions will translate to the production of large, fluffy
snowflakes. Snowfall rates in this axis will likely climb between
1-1.5" per hour. Additional small- scale bands of heavier snow
could develop in areas farther south and north of the primary
band, so we kept the snow totals on the higher side of advisory
all the way through Lincoln to Mattoon, where a range of 2-5" is
expected. A sharp southern edge remains indicated by most of the
model suite, with locations south of Springfield and Mattoon
likely seeing a dusting to 1 inch.
In addition, after coordination with DVN, LOT, and IND, we decided to
upgrade the I-74 corridor counties from Advisory to Warning due to
the potential for more widespread 6-7" snowfall totals.
The southeast winds this evening will not be much stronger that 10
mph, but the fluffy snow may be light enough for some minor drifting
along roadways.
Snowfall will rapidly diminish from west to east late this evening
and after midnight, as the clipper races into southern Indiana/
Kentucky and weakens. Additional snow accums after midnight will be
light, with the best chances of more than a half inch mainly east of
Champaign to Paris. Most areas will just see some lingering flurries
for a few hours after midnight.
Low temps tonight will drop into the 5-10 range north, with around
20 from Flora to Lawrenceville.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
The bitterly cold airmass will dominate the remainder of the
forecast. Models are still on track with the intense cold that will
follow tonight`s clipper.
Tuesday will see skies begin to clear out from west to east during
the afternoon, and W-NW winds increase. Blowing and drifting
snow may develop as the fluffy snow gets pushed around, causing
travel problems on north-south roads.
On Wednesday, an unusually strong surface high, on the order of 1058
mb, will build southeast through the Dakotas, before settling into
the Ohio Valley by early Thursday. The strong pressure contrast will
result in northwest winds of 15-25 mph Tuesday night and Wednesday,
with some gusts to over 30 mph. Lobe of -24C air at 850 mb will
pivot through the Midwest on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday likely to
remain below zero across the northern CWA, with lows Wednesday night
10-15 below zero north of I-74. Wind chill warnings and advisories
will be needed for late Tuesday night into Thursday morning, as most
of the forecast area sees wind chills 15-25 below with lower than
-25 across the north. Have decided to hold off on adding wind chill
headlines to the mix, due to the winter storm expected tonight
across much of the same area.
The next clipper system is projected to remain across southern
Canada on Thursday, dragging a cold front across northern IL
Thursday night. At this point, we are keeping snow out of the
forecast for Thur night. However, as the system becomes better
defined in a couple days, we may need to add a mention of light snow
for at least our northern counties.
Behind that cold front we will see a reinforcing push of cold air,
but not as cold as the mid-week airmass. We still expect very cold
conditions as wind chills remain below zero on Friday morning and
especially Saturday morning when -10F wind chills develop. For the
weekend, we are still seeing phasing differences in the northern and
southern jet branches. A couple of shortwaves could progress across
IL during the weekend, but timing remains a question. There would be
a period of light snow with any weak disturbances that move across
the area.
Some relief from the cold is projected for next Monday, as highs
climb into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
Fast moving storm system moving into central Illinois this evening
rapidly transitioning conditions from VFR to IFR, with LIFR and
local VLIFR expected from 01Z-07Z. Heaviest snowfall will affect
terminals KPIA-KBMI-KCMI with KSPI-KDEC on the southern edge of
heavier snowfall. System will move rapidly east after 07Z-09Z with
slowly improving cigs/vsbys overnight while light snow flurries
continue. VFR expected by 15Z. Breezy west winds 10g20 kts
developing Tuesday afternoon could produce local minor blowing
snow.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Tuesday FOR ILZ027>031-037-
038-045-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Tuesday FOR ILZ036-
041>044-053>057.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS/Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
708 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015
MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. ACCUMULATIONS OF THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. TWO TO FOUR INCHES IS EXPECTED
ALONG AND NORTH OF THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO
THE UPPER TEENS BY TOMORROW BEFORE PLUNGING AGAIN DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN THE TOP PRIORITY OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST/HEADLINES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
SHORTWAVE OF NOTE CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THIS
WAVE WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SHEAR OUT/DEAMPLIFY SOME BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ASSOCIATED
130+ KT 400MB JET STREAK DOES SWING SOUTH OF OUR CWA...PLACING US
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION...BUT JET ALSO BECOMES CYCLONICALLY
CURVED BY TONIGHT WHICH WILL FOCUS THE UPPER DIVERGENCE MORE ON
THE NOSE OF THE JET. LATEST MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DECENT 280K
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION BUT
DURATION IS HIGHLY LIMITED AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF OMEGA IS NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA...TO GENERATE
WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALLS. AS A CONSEQUENCE OF OVERALL
BROAD/LACKLUSTER THERMAL ADVECTIONS...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
GENERALLY WEAK FGEN. PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANTLY...CROSS SECTIONS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
THIS LIMITS THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOBANDING AND ASSOCIATED POCKETS
OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL. WHILE SOME "CLIPPER" TYPE SYSTEMS CAN AND DO
PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR THAT TYPE OF EVENT GIVEN STABLE TROPOSPHERE...DISPLACED UPPER
JET FORCING...AND LACK OF ANY SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO SUPPORT
RAPID AMPLIFICATION. FORCING WILL BE MAINLY TIED TO PV ADVECTION
AS THE WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. THUS...A MORE BROAD/LIGHT
REGION OF QPF IS PREFERRED. EXPECTING AROUND 0.25 INCHES SOUTH OF
US-30 WITH ROUGHLY A TENTH IN OUR NORTHEAST THIRD. FINAL SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO SNOW RATIOS. DGZ IS
EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT...OVER 10 KFT...SO
RATIOS WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF CLIMO.
HOWEVER...OMEGA ALSO EXTENDS WELL ABOVE THE DGZ AND WILL
INTRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PLATES AND COLUMNS. CAA ALSO SHORTENS
THE DGZ WITH TIME. WOULD TAKE RATIOS OF 25:1 TO GENERATE MORE
THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CURRENTLY DON`T
SEE RATIOS QUITE THAT HIGH AND PREFER TO HOLD WITH AROUND 20:1. A
FEW ISOLATED 6" REPORTS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES FROM
MONTICELLO TO PORTLAND ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT CONFIDENCE
IS JUST NOT HIGH FOR WARNING ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT. EXPECT 2-4"
ALONG THE US-30 CORRIDOR WITH 1-3" IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST WHERE SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW MAY LEAD TO A LONGER DURATION
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS. SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER
AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKES A LARGE TOLL. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED
TO TREAT THIS EVENT AND THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LAKE EFFECT
AS TWO SEPARATE EVENTS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER TEENS. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY CLIMB ABOVE ZERO.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015
FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES ON BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...WIND
CHILLS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL THIS WEEK. BRUNT OF NEXT
ARCTIC SURGE TO PUSH SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING DECENT
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTH TO
SUPPORT SNOW CHANCES. LAKE EFFECT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
FAVORABLE DGZ FROM LATE TUE NIGHT INTO MID DAY WED BEFORE DGZ
CRASHES TO THE GROUND. DELTA T VALUES IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY
WITH 700MB DELTA T VALUES TO MID 30S. LOW LEVEL OMEGA AND
TRAJECTORIES ALSO FAVORABLE FOR PERIOD OF GOOD SNOWFALL RATES
DURING THIS EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD. OMEGA FIELDS AND TRAJECTORIES
ALSO SUGGEST THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY MOVE WELL INLAND AND BE
SUPPORTED BY THE COLD AIRMASS. WAS CONTEMPLATING A WATCH IN THE
LAKE EFFECT REGION BUT AFTER COLLABORATION WITH GRR AND CURRENT
HEADLINES FOR SYNOPTIC SYSTEM OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY LES WATCH
WITH QUESTIONS ALSO SURROUNDING DENDRITE SIZE AND ACCUMULATION
LOCATION. FEELING IS THAT A LONG DURATION ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED IN THE NORTHWEST WITH BLOWING SNOW ISSUES AS WELL.
LES INTENSITY EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER WED AS DGZ CRASHES AND
FLOW ALSO BACKS. CLEARING TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHWEST WED NIGHT AND
EXPECT COLDEST MORNING TO BE THURSDAY. WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 15 BELOW TO 25 BELOW RANGE BUT POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 25 BELOW WED NIGHT WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 BELOW AND WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. IT STILL
APPEARS AT LEAST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED WED INTO
THU WITH POSSIBILITY OF WARNING...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT AND THU.
POTENTIAL FOR BELOW ZERO TEMPS AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING THEN SLOW
MODERATION BEGINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT
WAVES IN THE MODELS BUT RESOLUTION AND TIMING CREATING PROBLEMS
SO OPTED FOR EITHER VERY LOW CHANCES OR REMOVED SUPERBLEND SLIGHT
CHANCES ALL TOGETHER IN THE LATER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015
MINOR CHANGES WRT SN ONSET...WITH MARKED DIFFERENTIATION BTWN
KSBN/KFWA WITH SIG LWR/DOMINANT LIFR PD AT KFWA DURING HEIGHT OF
EVENT CONSISTENT WITH LATEST RUC MODEL SIGNALS. TRANSITON TO MVFR
CIGS AND RAPIDLY IMPROVING VSBYS AS SYSTEM QUICKLY TRANSLATES EWD
THROUGH THE UPR OH VLY TO NRN WV AS 925-8H JET FOCUS SHIFTS ALONG
WV ALLEGHENYS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR INZ016>018-024>027-032>034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
INZ003-004-012>015-020-022-023.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ077.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR OHZ015-016-024-025.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ043-046.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
713 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
TRENDS OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND TRACK OF CLIPPER SYSTEM
SUGGEST HIGHEST SNOW ACCUM AXIS MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTHWEST TO CORRIDOR ROUGHLY TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES. CONCERNS THAT AMOUNTS MAY BE
A BIT HIGH IN SOME AREAS FROM QUAD CITIES NORTHEAST BUT RAP MODEL
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST SHOULD SEE BETTER DENDRITES NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH BETTER ALIGNMENT OF FORCING AND DGZ ENHANCING RATES
TO AROUND 1"/HR... AND RADAR MAY BE BEARING THAT OUT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN RETURNS NEAR/E OF CID. THUS... NO CHANGES BEING MADE
AT THIS POINT BUT CONTINUING TO ASSESS/MONITOR TRENDS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
FORCING AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING ALBERTA CLIPPER IN THE UPPER LEVEL
NW FLOW WAS RAPIDLY SPREADING THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE NW TO SE
ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WERE HOLDING TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY...FROM
ONLY AROUND 1 IN DUBUQUE TO 10 IN KEOKUK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATED HIGH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS...DUE TO THE DEEP LIFT INTO
THE ARCTIC TEMPERATURES...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HEAVY SNOWFALL
AS THE PRIMARY BAND OF SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER PASSES DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS MID AS A 1050 MB PLUS ARCTIC HIGH PLUNGES INTO
THE PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
DETAILS OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT
TERM. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE TO HEADLINES BASED
ON THE ANTICIPATED SLIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AS VERIFIED BY THE 12Z MODELS WITH THE COLDER
THAN FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES ADDING CONFIDENCE IN THIS
TREND. BASED ON THIS...THE SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LOUISA COUNTY IN IA...AND ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR COUNTIES IN NW IL...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT TOTALS WILL EXCEED 6 INCHES WITH THE W-NW TO E-SE
AXIS OF HEAVIES SNOW LIKELY CURVING SE INTO N CENTRAL IL. ALSO
WITH THIS SW SHIFT OF HIGHER SNOW TOTALS...THE POTENTIAL FOR 6
INCH AMOUNTS HAS DIMINISHED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR...
ESPECIALLY IN NW IL...WHERE THE WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO AN
ADVISORY IN STEPHENSON COUNTY. ADVISORIES FOR LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS
REMAIN UNCHANGED OVER PORTIONS OF SE IA INTO W CENTRAL IL.
STRONG FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING...PRODUCING A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW AT THE ONSET OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...THAT WILL LAYOUT A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES.
BASED ON TYPICAL CLIPPER SYSTEM QPF TOTALS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH...WE WILL REQUIRE VERY HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 20 TO 1
OR MORE TO REACH THE ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD 6 TO NEAR 8 INCHES IN
A SWATH THAT IS KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ROUGHLY IN
A 50 MILE WIDE AXIS FROM BELLE PLAINE IA...THROUGH THE QUAD
CITIES...TO SOUTH OF PRINCETON IL. EXPIRATION TIMES FOR THE
HEADLINES REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED...BUT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.
LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER W OF THE
MS RIVER BY MIDNIGHT...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER NW IL BEFORE 3 AM.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
OVERVIEW...MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE NEED FOR WIND CHILL
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY AND
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY. WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY PRODUCTS UNTIL CURRENT SNOW EVENT HAS MOVED OUT.
TUESDAY...A ~1040 MB SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ORGANIZED PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE EAST WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND
20 MPH. AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STEADY WESTERLY FLOW.
PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTN AND 925 MB TEMPS NEAR -14 C...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 0S/LOWER 10S...ALTHOUGH THE FRESH SNOW-COVER WILL PUT A
STOP TO ANY ADDITIONAL WARMING. PERIOD OF STRONG CAA WILL HOLD-OFF
UNTIL TUE NIGHT WHEN AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 9 PM TUE AND THE SOUTHERN CWA AFTER 12 AM WED.
IMPACTS...WIND CHILL VALUES REALLY START TO BECOME A FACTOR BEHIND
THE ARCTIC FRONT. BETWEEN 12 AM TO 6 AM WED...EXPECT 30-35 BELOW
WIND CHILLS NORTH OF A IOWA CITY-TO-CLINTON LINE AND 20-25 BELOW TO
THE SOUTH. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE...NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO
25-30 MPH RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW IN RURAL
AREAS. DEFINITELY NOT A GOOD NIGHT TO BE TRAVELING AND COULD BECOME
VERY DANGEROUS IF ONE WERE TO GET STRANDED.
WEDNESDAY...BITTERLY COLD. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WITH THIS EVENT
WILL OCCUR WED MORNING AND AGAIN WED EVENING/NIGHT WITH 35-40 BELOW
VALUES NORTH OF AN IOWA CITY-TO-CLINTON LINE AND 30-35 BELOW TO THE
SOUTH. ONLY A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST MIDDAY.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER GOING
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH MEANS NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY...UP
AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH THE AFTN. 925 MB TEMPS NEAR -24 C SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUBSTANTIALLY WED NIGHT BUT WIND CHILLS WILL NOT
IMPROVE AS AIR TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE -15 TO -20 F RANGE WITH THE -20 READINGS
OCCURRING IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOCAL RECORDS ARE NEAR -20 F
OR COLDER FOR JANUARY 8TH.
THURSDAY...AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST. SW
WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE WARMER THAN -20 F IN THE AFTN AS AMBIENT TEMPS
RISE INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG SW
FLOW RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW AND DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS.
FRIDAY...A WEAKER ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN FOR FRI.
925 MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM NEAR -14 C ON THU TO -18 C BY FRI
MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH LOWER
TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL WEAKEN.
THE 850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
U.S. WILL FOLLOW SUIT WHICH WILL PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED PERIODS OF
THERMAL ADVECTION. SFC TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE DURING THIS TIME
FROM THE TEENS ON SAT TO THE 20S BY SUN.
GFS AND ECMWF KEEP LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA SUN/SUN NIGHT...BUT AS ALWAYS WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE SINCE IT IS STILL 6+ DAYS AWAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
SNOW WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THIS EVENING AS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AM EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY. WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY AM WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND
FROM S/SE TO W/NW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AM WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CLINTON-JACKSON-
SCOTT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR DES MOINES-
HENRY IA-JEFFERSON.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
CEDAR-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-
LOUISA-MUSCATINE-WASHINGTON.
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-WHITESIDE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR HENDERSON-
STEPHENSON-WARREN.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
549 PM MST MON JAN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST MON JAN 5 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALONG FRONT RANGE AS A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM AS A RESULT OF CLOUD
COVER AND SHALLOW INVERSION OVER ESTABLISHED SNOW PACK. SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS MANAGED TO BRING WARMER TEMPS FROM FRONT RANGE TOWARDS
EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO...HOWEVER THESE HAVE STRUGGLED TO ADVECT
FURTHER EAST AS WEAKER FLOW HAS BEEN IN PLACE IN KS/NE. I WOULD
STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST IN THE
WEST...BUT THERE MAY BE VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL WARMING IN OUR EAST.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. NAM/RAP SHOWING STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND
THIS FRONT...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS
SATURATED LAYER REMAINING VERY SHALLOW. I AM ALSO SKEPTICAL OF THE
BL CONDITIONS ADVERTISED IN NAM AS ITS SNOW DEPTH IS SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER THAN REALITY (SHOWING 5-12" ACROSS CWA WHEN IN REALITY IT
AVERAGES 1-3"). BL CONDITIONS MAY BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY THIS FIELD
AND SINCE FOG/STRATUS NEVER MATERIALIZED LAST NIGHT I DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF MENTION IN GRIDS. WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH TUESDAY AS LEE
TROUGH REDEVELOPS. SAME ISSUES WITH WARMING TUESDAY AS TODAY AS
CLOUDS SNOW PACK POSSIBLY LIMITING MIXING. NUDGED HIGHS TUESDAY
TOWARD WHATS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR TODAY. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
THESE PERIOD WITH ANYTHING OTHER THAN A DRY FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST MON JAN 5 2015
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL
SPILL IN BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
ON THURSDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS...BUT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL AGAIN
BE VERY LIGHT...LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE QUITE AS COLD BEHIND THAT FRONT WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE
20S. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH A ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CONUS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MST MON JAN 5 2015
MCK AND GLD SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS
INDICATE HIGH NEAR SURFACE RH VALUES THAT WOULD NORMALLY INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS...BUT FEEL MODEL SNOW DEPTHS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME SATURATED IS
OVERDONE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z COULD TURN
NORTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER ABOUT
14Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
104 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BEST REFLECT THE ONGOING RADAR TRENDS...WITH
THE COLD FRONT AND LINE OF SHOWERS HAVING SLOWED AS IT MOVED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SE PORTION OF THE STATE...AND IS NOW
FINALLY MOVING EAST OF THE CWA. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STARTING
TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY DUE TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM. STILL HAVE THIS PRECIP MAKING IT IN HERE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING CONSIDERABLY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF A LINE OF SHOWERS
JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS TRAVERSING EASTERN
KY. EXPECT THE FRONT...AS WELL AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS...TO BE EAST OF
THE REGION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ENDED UP SPEEDING UP THE
ONGOING FORECAST BY AN HOUR TO BETTER DEPICT THIS MOVEMENT. ALSO
LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND
WINDS...INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE EACH OF THESE
PARAMETERS WAS WELL REFLECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING EAST KENTUCKY BRINGING A NARROW BAND
OF MODERATE RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OF BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. HAVE
TIMED THIS THROUGH THE CWA IN THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MOST PLACES
EXPERIENCING THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY ATTM WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DID UPDATE THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
THE FRONT AND THE CURRENT READINGS. THESE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW IS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH KENTUCKY
TRAILING A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE SETTLED DOWN AND
MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WHILE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND OVER
CENTRAL KENTUCKY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EAST
KENTUCKY IS ENJOYING A VERY MILD EARLY JANUARY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WHILE DEWPOINTS
ARE NOT MUCH LOWER. WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA DESPITE THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
ROARING JUST OFF THE SFC...AS SEEN IN THE JKL VWP.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS WE
ENTER A PERIOD OF SHARP WX TRANSITION. A FAIRLY DEEP FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL SWEEP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH ITS CORE BATCH OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BY 00Z. VERY FAST FLOW THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE LARGE...BUT NOT SETTLING TOO FAR SOUTH...TROUGH THEN
WILL KEEP MINOR WAVES MOVING PAST ALOFT TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. GIVEN THE CLOSE MODEL AGREEMENT HERE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
BLEND OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF AND NAM12 FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL GO THROUGH BY MID MORNING...THOUGH...AND START US ON OUR DESCENT
TO SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS THAT WILL BE IN HERE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END
WITH ITS PASSAGE...THOUGH THAT SHORTWAVE CROSSING OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON AND A COMBINATION OF WRAP AROUND AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PCPN MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE EVENING
EXPECT THE LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR
A BRIEF TIME. THESE WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A DUSTING OF
ACCUMULATION BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR AND ARRIVING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES MONDAY MORNING...
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 20S.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS...TD...
AND WINDS UP TO 21Z TODAY AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. DID MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POINT TEMPERATURE DATA
FOR MAXES AND MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR
TO A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE TODAY BUT WENT ABOVE ALL OF IT FOR THE
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES LATER THIS EVENING AND THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...MONDAY WAS KEPT DRY IN LINE WITH ALL THE MOS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THROUGH
SATURDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY
REGION. THE FIRST WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND THOUGH MOISTURE
STARVED AND MOST OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE BEING NORTH...WILL KEEP
SOME FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS JUST SKIRTING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS QUITE DRY SO COULD
ALSO GO COMPLETELY DRY OVER THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FIRST
SHOT OF COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. THEN
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT
THE FRONT BEING DRY WITH THIS ONE WITH JUST CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
THE COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME FRIGID AIR INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE FROM
THE UPPER PLAINS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MS VALLEY AND TN
VALLEY...KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THE COLD AIR AND WIND EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE SOME WIND
CHILLS INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL MENTION THIS
IN THE HWO AS WELL AS ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS. MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA
DRY BUT THE EURO HAS THE THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTH ALLOWING A
NEW FEATURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. DID GET SOME POPS FROM THE ALL MODEL BLEND SO WENT WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE AREA. THIS IS DUE
TO COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL AS THE TRENDS OF
THE EURO. THE AIR MASS IN PLACE DURING THAT TIME IS ALSO QUITE DRY TO
OVERCOME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
A COLD FRONT THAT TRAVERSED MUCH OF EASTERN KY EARLIER THIS MORNING
IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE STATE TO THE EAST. IN IT/S WAKE...RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE CEASED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES /KSJS MAY HAVE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT HOUR AS IT IS FARTHER EAST/. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIGHT...BUT THE INTRUSION OF COLD AIR MAY LEAD TO SOME NON-ACCUMULATING
SNOW MIXING IN. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG SW TO NE FLOW ALOFT...AND TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 25KTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. GRADIENTS WILL LESSON AS
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES IN TOMORROW MORNING. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AND UPSTREAM OBS...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME
LOCATIONS COULD DROP DOWN TO LIFR AT TIMES AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START BREAKING OUT TOMORROW MORNING FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1235 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2015
An arctic boundary is currently situated from the just west of the
Wabash River Valley southwestward to the Red River Valley. This
feature will quickly slide through our area this afternoon into the
early evening. Meanwhile, an upper level disturbance will slide
through, with the best forcing across south central KY. The
combination of lingering 1000-850 mb moisture, steepening low level
lapse rates, and the disturbance will be able to produce isolated to
scattered coverage of mostly rain showers. Perhaps a few showers
across southern Indiana could briefly change to snow.
Forecast remains on track and have only updated to reflect current
trends, and reduce chances of measurable precipitation by 5 to 10
percent. Temperatures will fall through the 30s this afternoon and
evening, on their way to the upper teens and low 20s tonight.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 230 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2015
Big weather changes are in store during the short term period as a
strong storm system continues to cross the Ohio Valley. As of 3
am, the latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb RAP heights shows
intense southwesterly flow remaining across the forecast area as the
main shortwave trough lifts through Missouri into northern Illinois.
A secondary PV anomaly is crossing through Oklahoma. At the surface,
a cold front is beginning to move into the LMK CWA. Ahead of this
boundary, conditions are very mild as readings have held up in the
upper 50s to near 60 degrees.
Plan on scattered/numerous rain showers and/or drizzle to persist
through the early morning hours, ending southwest to northeast as
the main upper level forcing lifts into Ohio. Then, for the
remainder of this morning, we`ll be under the influence of a dry
slot, waiting for the aforementioned secondary PV anomaly to pivot
across the Ohio Valley this afternoon. 04.00z guidance still shows a
good amount of PV advection with this wave, low level lapse rates
approaching 8-9C/km and weak instability. Meso-models depict
intermittent convective rain showers developing this afternoon and
some of the perkier ones may be strong enough to mix down gusty
winds 30-35 mph. As temperatures aloft crash and reach -10C, there
will be a brief window where precipitation may changeover to snow
showers, especially north of KY parkways. A quick dusting is
possible on grassy surfaces but overall not expecting any impacts.
High temperatures will occur this morning, then plan on readings to
steadily fall throughout the day, reaching the mid 30s to lower 40s
by mid/late afternoon. Combined with a brisk west wind 10-20 mph and
wind chills will be in the 20s by this evening. Quite a change in 24
hours.
As the new work and school week begins Monday morning, a fresh surge
of Arctic air will have taken hold of the forecast area. Plan on
morning temperatures in the teens to lower 20s. A steady
north/northwest wind will make it feel more like +5 to +10F. High
temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees below normal, struggling to
reach the upper 20s.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 248 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2015
...Very Cold Temperatures and Wind Chills Mid-Week...
A small, weakening area of low pressure will zip quickly by to our
north early Tuesday morning. Models have been fairly consistent and
continue to be in decent agreement with this feature, taking the
great majority of its associated precipitation to our north through
Illinois, central/northern Indiana, and Ohio. The best chance for
any dusting in the LMK CWA would be north of a Paoli-Madison line,
with scattered flurries possible as far south as the Interstate 64
corridor. Atmospheric cross-sections continue to show a good amount
of dry air in the low levels, even in the far north of the LMK CWA,
lending credence to the idea that there will be minimal impact here.
A very impressive dome of frigid high pressure will invade from the
northwest behind Tuesday`s system. This high, already very cold to
begin with, will slide across extensive snowpack in the Plains and
Midwest on its way to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, limiting
moderation of the airmass. On Wednesday, sunrise temperatures
should be in the teens, and will fall from there into the single
digits in Indiana and the lower and middle teens in Kentucky by
suppertime. Winds will be brisk and gusty in a tight pressure
gradient on the nose of the incoming high, possibly gusting to
around 20 mph as temperatures fall. Wind chills Wednesday afternoon
and evening over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky will be in
the -5 to -15 range.
By dawn on Thursday the center of the high will be right over us.
Any breeze will be light, and what breeze there is may be coming in
from the northwest off the Midwestern snow field. Skies should be
clear. So, very cold temperatures can be expected. Southern
Indiana locations will dip slightly below zero, with lows around
zero in Kentucky all the way down to the Tennessee border.
A weakening cold front will pass through on Friday morning
completely dry with high pressure centers ahead of and behind it,
blocking any moisture supply. Then, behind the departing front,
another Canadian high for Friday night/Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1214 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2015
An Arctic front currently stretches from the Wabash River Valley
southwestward to the Red River Valley. This feature will slide
through the TAF sites later this afternoon, with a subtle veering of
the surface winds to a more NW component. Winds will continue to
gust mainly between 25 and 30 mph at times behind this boundary,
gradually slackening after midnight as the surface high begins to
build in.
Ceilings have been mostly MVFR and will continue to mention this
trend prevailing through the evening before conditions improve
around Midnight. Given the mixy low level boundary layer, ceilings
could waffle below fuel-alternate and above the MVFR/VFR threshold
for brief periods of time. Skies should be mostly clear as we near
dawn on Monday.
Only other concern is the scattered shower activity expected this
afternoon into the early evening due to steepening low level lapse
rates and passing mid level disturbance. This will be most prolific
at BWG, however will mention VCSH at all sites through early this
evening.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......13
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1214 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 230 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2015
Big weather changes are in store during the short term period as a
strong storm system continues to cross the Ohio Valley. As of 3
am, the latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb RAP heights shows
intense southwesterly flow remaining across the forecast area as the
main shortwave trough lifts through Missouri into northern Illinois.
A secondary PV anomaly is crossing through Oklahoma. At the surface,
a cold front is beginning to move into the LMK CWA. Ahead of this
boundary, conditions are very mild as readings have held up in the
upper 50s to near 60 degrees.
Plan on scattered/numerous rain showers and/or drizzle to persist
through the early morning hours, ending southwest to northeast as
the main upper level forcing lifts into Ohio. Then, for the
remainder of this morning, we`ll be under the influence of a dry
slot, waiting for the aforementioned secondary PV anomaly to pivot
across the Ohio Valley this afternoon. 04.00z guidance still shows a
good amount of PV advection with this wave, low level lapse rates
approaching 8-9C/km and weak instability. Meso-models depict
intermittent convective rain showers developing this afternoon and
some of the perkier ones may be strong enough to mix down gusty
winds 30-35 mph. As temperatures aloft crash and reach -10C, there
will be a brief window where precipitation may changeover to snow
showers, especially north of KY parkways. A quick dusting is
possible on grassy surfaces but overall not expecting any impacts.
High temperatures will occur this morning, then plan on readings to
steadily fall throughout the day, reaching the mid 30s to lower 40s
by mid/late afternoon. Combined with a brisk west wind 10-20 mph and
wind chills will be in the 20s by this evening. Quite a change in 24
hours.
As the new work and school week begins Monday morning, a fresh surge
of Arctic air will have taken hold of the forecast area. Plan on
morning temperatures in the teens to lower 20s. A steady
north/northwest wind will make it feel more like +5 to +10F. High
temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees below normal, struggling to
reach the upper 20s.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 248 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2015
...Very Cold Temperatures and Wind Chills Mid-Week...
A small, weakening area of low pressure will zip quickly by to our
north early Tuesday morning. Models have been fairly consistent and
continue to be in decent agreement with this feature, taking the
great majority of its associated precipitation to our north through
Illinois, central/northern Indiana, and Ohio. The best chance for
any dusting in the LMK CWA would be north of a Paoli-Madison line,
with scattered flurries possible as far south as the Interstate 64
corridor. Atmospheric cross-sections continue to show a good amount
of dry air in the low levels, even in the far north of the LMK CWA,
lending credence to the idea that there will be minimal impact here.
A very impressive dome of frigid high pressure will invade from the
northwest behind Tuesday`s system. This high, already very cold to
begin with, will slide across extensive snowpack in the Plains and
Midwest on its way to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, limiting
moderation of the airmass. On Wednesday, sunrise temperatures
should be in the teens, and will fall from there into the single
digits in Indiana and the lower and middle teens in Kentucky by
suppertime. Winds will be brisk and gusty in a tight pressure
gradient on the nose of the incoming high, possibly gusting to
around 20 mph as temperatures fall. Wind chills Wednesday afternoon
and evening over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky will be in
the -5 to -15 range.
By dawn on Thursday the center of the high will be right over us.
Any breeze will be light, and what breeze there is may be coming in
from the northwest off the Midwestern snow field. Skies should be
clear. So, very cold temperatures can be expected. Southern
Indiana locations will dip slightly below zero, with lows around
zero in Kentucky all the way down to the Tennessee border.
A weakening cold front will pass through on Friday morning
completely dry with high pressure centers ahead of and behind it,
blocking any moisture supply. Then, behind the departing front,
another Canadian high for Friday night/Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1214 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2015
An Arctic front currently stretches from the Wabash River Valley
southwestward to the Red River Valley. This feature will slide
through the TAF sites later this afternoon, with a subtle veering of
the surface winds to a more NW component. Winds will continue to
gust mainly between 25 and 30 mph at times behind this boundary,
gradually slackening after midnight as the surface high begins to
build in.
Ceilings have been mostly MVFR and will continue to mention this
trend prevailing through the evening before conditions improve
around Midnight. Given the mixy low level boundary layer, ceilings
could waffle below fuel-alternate and above the MVFR/VFR threshold
for brief periods of time. Skies should be mostly clear as we near
dawn on Monday.
Only other concern is the scattered shower activity expected this
afternoon into the early evening due to steepening low level lapse
rates and passing mid level disturbance. This will be most prolific
at BWG, however will mention VCSH at all sites through early this
evening.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
937 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF A LINE OF SHOWERS
JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS TRAVERSING EASTERN
KY. EXPECT THE FRONT...AS WELL AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS...TO BE EAST OF
THE REGION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ENDED UP SPEEDING UP THE
ONGOING FORECAST BY AN HOUR TO BETTER DEPICT THIS MOVEMENT. ALSO
LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND
WINDS...INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE EACH OF THESE
PARAMETERS WAS WELL REFLECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING EAST KENTUCKY BRINGING A NARROW BAND
OF MODERATE RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OF BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. HAVE
TIMED THIS THROUGH THE CWA IN THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MOST PLACES
EXPERIENCING THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY ATTM WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DID UPDATE THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
THE FRONT AND THE CURRENT READINGS. THESE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW IS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH KENTUCKY
TRAILING A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE SETTLED DOWN AND
MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WHILE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND OVER
CENTRAL KENTUCKY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EAST
KENTUCKY IS ENJOYING A VERY MILD EARLY JANUARY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WHILE DEWPOINTS
ARE NOT MUCH LOWER. WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA DESPITE THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
ROARING JUST OFF THE SFC...AS SEEN IN THE JKL VWP.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS WE
ENTER A PERIOD OF SHARP WX TRANSITION. A FAIRLY DEEP FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL SWEEP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH ITS CORE BATCH OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BY 00Z. VERY FAST FLOW THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE LARGE...BUT NOT SETTLING TOO FAR SOUTH...TROUGH THEN
WILL KEEP MINOR WAVES MOVING PAST ALOFT TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. GIVEN THE CLOSE MODEL AGREEMENT HERE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
BLEND OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF AND NAM12 FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL GO THROUGH BY MID MORNING...THOUGH...AND START US ON OUR DESCENT
TO SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS THAT WILL BE IN HERE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END
WITH ITS PASSAGE...THOUGH THAT SHORTWAVE CROSSING OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON AND A COMBINATION OF WRAP AROUND AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PCPN MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE EVENING
EXPECT THE LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR
A BRIEF TIME. THESE WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A DUSTING OF
ACCUMULATION BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR AND ARRIVING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES MONDAY MORNING...
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 20S.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS...TD...
AND WINDS UP TO 21Z TODAY AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. DID MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POINT TEMPERATURE DATA
FOR MAXES AND MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR
TO A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE TODAY BUT WENT ABOVE ALL OF IT FOR THE
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES LATER THIS EVENING AND THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...MONDAY WAS KEPT DRY IN LINE WITH ALL THE MOS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THROUGH
SATURDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY
REGION. THE FIRST WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND THOUGH MOISTURE
STARVED AND MOST OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE BEING NORTH...WILL KEEP
SOME FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS JUST SKIRTING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS QUITE DRY SO COULD
ALSO GO COMPLETELY DRY OVER THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FIRST
SHOT OF COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. THEN
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT
THE FRONT BEING DRY WITH THIS ONE WITH JUST CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
THE COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME FRIGID AIR INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE FROM
THE UPPER PLAINS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MS VALLEY AND TN
VALLEY...KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THE COLD AIR AND WIND EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE SOME WIND
CHILLS INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL MENTION THIS
IN THE HWO AS WELL AS ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS. MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA
DRY BUT THE EURO HAS THE THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTH ALLOWING A
NEW FEATURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. DID GET SOME POPS FROM THE ALL MODEL BLEND SO WENT WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE AREA. THIS IS DUE
TO COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL AS THE TRENDS OF
THE EURO. THE AIR MASS IN PLACE DURING THAT TIME IS ALSO QUITE DRY TO
OVERCOME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
WITH THE IMMINENT FROPA THE MAIN THREAT OF THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN
END...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS
WILL SEND LOWER CIGS BACK INTO THE AREA...AS WELL. UPSLOPE FLOW AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO LINGER THE SHOWER THREAT AS A SNOW ONE
FOR A TIME THIS EVENING ALONG WITH FLURRIES FOR MOST PLACES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL SOME STRONG 900MB WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS...
FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO LLWS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR TWO...THOUGH MUCH OF THE WINDS ARE NOW MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC
AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS
WINDS GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
606 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 230 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2015
Big weather changes are in store during the short term period as a
strong storm system continues to cross the Ohio Valley. As of 3
am, the latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb RAP heights shows
intense southwesterly flow remaining across the forecast area as the
main shortwave trough lifts through Missouri into northern Illinois.
A secondary PV anomaly is crossing through Oklahoma. At the surface,
a cold front is beginning to move into the LMK CWA. Ahead of this
boundary, conditions are very mild as readings have held up in the
upper 50s to near 60 degrees.
Plan on scattered/numerous rain showers and/or drizzle to persist
through the early morning hours, ending southwest to northeast as
the main upper level forcing lifts into Ohio. Then, for the
remainder of this morning, we`ll be under the influence of a dry
slot, waiting for the aforementioned secondary PV anomaly to pivot
across the Ohio Valley this afternoon. 04.00z guidance still shows a
good amount of PV advection with this wave, low level lapse rates
approaching 8-9C/km and weak instability. Meso-models depict
intermittent convective rain showers developing this afternoon and
some of the perkier ones may be strong enough to mix down gusty
winds 30-35 mph. As temperatures aloft crash and reach -10C, there
will be a brief window where precipitation may changeover to snow
showers, especially north of KY parkways. A quick dusting is
possible on grassy surfaces but overall not expecting any impacts.
High temperatures will occur this morning, then plan on readings to
steadily fall throughout the day, reaching the mid 30s to lower 40s
by mid/late afternoon. Combined with a brisk west wind 10-20 mph and
wind chills will be in the 20s by this evening. Quite a change in 24
hours.
As the new work and school week begins Monday morning, a fresh surge
of Arctic air will have taken hold of the forecast area. Plan on
morning temperatures in the teens to lower 20s. A steady
north/northwest wind will make it feel more like +5 to +10F. High
temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees below normal, struggling to
reach the upper 20s.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 248 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2015
...Very Cold Temperatures and Wind Chills Mid-Week...
A small, weakening area of low pressure will zip quickly by to our
north early Tuesday morning. Models have been fairly consistent and
continue to be in decent agreement with this feature, taking the
great majority of its associated precipitation to our north through
Illinois, central/northern Indiana, and Ohio. The best chance for
any dusting in the LMK CWA would be north of a Paoli-Madison line,
with scattered flurries possible as far south as the Interstate 64
corridor. Atmospheric cross-sections continue to show a good amount
of dry air in the low levels, even in the far north of the LMK CWA,
lending credence to the idea that there will be minimal impact here.
A very impressive dome of frigid high pressure will invade from the
northwest behind Tuesday`s system. This high, already very cold to
begin with, will slide across extensive snowpack in the Plains and
Midwest on its way to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, limiting
moderation of the airmass. On Wednesday, sunrise temperatures
should be in the teens, and will fall from there into the single
digits in Indiana and the lower and middle teens in Kentucky by
suppertime. Winds will be brisk and gusty in a tight pressure
gradient on the nose of the incoming high, possibly gusting to
around 20 mph as temperatures fall. Wind chills Wednesday afternoon
and evening over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky will be in
the -5 to -15 range.
By dawn on Thursday the center of the high will be right over us.
Any breeze will be light, and what breeze there is may be coming in
from the northwest off the Midwestern snow field. Skies should be
clear. So, very cold temperatures can be expected. Southern
Indiana locations will dip slightly below zero, with lows around
zero in Kentucky all the way down to the Tennessee border.
A weakening cold front will pass through on Friday morning
completely dry with high pressure centers ahead of and behind it,
blocking any moisture supply. Then, behind the departing front,
another Canadian high for Friday night/Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 600 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2015
Initial surface front now through BWG/SDF/LEX as winds have turned
to the southwest. Plan on gusts 25-30 kts this morning and a
temporary end to precipitation as the region becomes dry slotted.
Ceilings upstream vary from low end MVFR to SKC, but thinking that
any holes will fill in later today and bases will climb to above
fuel alternate by late morning to afternoon. Another weather
disturbance could bring scattered rain showers to all TAF sites by
the afternoon. Winds will become more northwesterly with this
secondary front passage. Toward the end of the period, soundings
show dry air will work in and ceilings will become more scattered.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........ZBT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
342 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW IS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH KENTUCKY
TRAILING A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE SETTLED DOWN AND
MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WHILE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND OVER
CENTRAL KENTUCKY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EAST
KENTUCKY IS ENJOYING A VERY MILD EARLY JANUARY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WHILE DEWPOINTS
ARE NOT MUCH LOWER. WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA DESPITE THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
ROARING JUST OFF THE SFC...AS SEEN IN THE JKL VWP.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS WE
ENTER A PERIOD OF SHARP WX TRANSITION. A FAIRLY DEEP FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL SWEEP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH ITS CORE BATCH OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BY 00Z. VERY FAST FLOW THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE LARGE...BUT NOT SETTLING TOO FAR SOUTH...TROUGH THEN
WILL KEEP MINOR WAVES MOVING PAST ALOFT TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. GIVEN THE CLOSE MODEL AGREEMENT HERE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
BLEND OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF AND NAM12 FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL GO THROUGH BY MID MORNING...THOUGH...AND START US ON OUR DESCENT
TO SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS THAT WILL BE IN HERE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END
WITH ITS PASSAGE...THOUGH THAT SHORTWAVE CROSSING OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON AND A COMBINATION OF WRAP AROUND AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PCPN MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE EVENING
EXPECT THE LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR
A BRIEF TIME. THESE WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A DUSTING OF
ACCUMULATION BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR AND ARRIVING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES MONDAY MORNING...
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 20S.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS...TD...
AND WINDS UP TO 21Z TODAY AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. DID MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POINT TEMPERATURE DATA
FOR MAXES AND MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR
TO A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE TODAY BUT WENT ABOVE ALL OF IT FOR THE
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES LATER THIS EVENING AND THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...MONDAY WAS KEPT DRY IN LINE WITH ALL THE MOS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THROUGH
SATURDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY
REGION. THE FIRST WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND THOUGH MOISTURE
STARVED AND MOST OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE BEING NORTH...WILL KEEP
SOME FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS JUST SKIRTING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS QUITE DRY SO COULD
ALSO GO COMPLETELY DRY OVER THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FIRST
SHOT OF COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. THEN
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT
THE FRONT BEING DRY WITH THIS ONE WITH JUST CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
THE COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME FRIGID AIR INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE FROM
THE UPPER PLAINS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MS VALLEY AND TN
VALLEY...KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THE COLD AIR AND WIND EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE SOME WIND
CHILLS INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL MENTION THIS
IN THE HWO AS WELL AS ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS. MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA
DRY BUT THE EURO HAS THE THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTH ALLOWING A
NEW FEATURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. DID GET SOME POPS FROM THE ALL MODEL BLEND SO WENT WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE AREA. THIS IS DUE
TO COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL AS THE TRENDS OF
THE EURO. THE AIR MASS IN PLACE DURING THAT TIME IS ALSO QUITE DRY TO
OVERCOME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA AT A QUICKER
PACE SOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NORTH OF KENTUCKY FURTHER
DEEPENS. THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS NOW CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS SHIFTING EAST...AS WELL. THE LINGERING
RAIN OVER THE AREA WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES PARTICULARLY
WHEN SOME PATCHY FOG MOVES OVER THE TAF SITES. WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS
NOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE TAF SITES...CIGS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW
AND MID REACHES OF THE VFR CATEGORY. THE STEADY RAIN WILL END BEFORE
DAYBREAK AT MOST SPOTS...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS WILL SEND LOWER CIGS BACK INTO THE AREA...AS WELL. WITH
900MB WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS...LLWS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT EXITS SUNDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
320 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW IS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH KENTUCKY
TRAILING A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE SETTLED DOWN AND
MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WHILE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND OVER
CENTRAL KENTUCKY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EAST
KENTUCKY IS ENJOYING A VERY MILD EARLY JANUARY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WHILE DEWPOINTS
ARE NOT MUCH LOWER. WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA DESPITE THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
ROARING JUST OFF THE SFC...AS SEEN IN THE JKL VWP.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS WE
ENTER A PERIOD OF SHARP WX TRANSITION. A FAIRLY DEEP FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL SWEEP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH ITS CORE BATCH OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BY 00Z. VERY FAST FLOW THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE LARGE...BUT NOT SETTLING TOO FAR SOUTH...TROUGH THEN
WILL KEEP MINOR WAVES MOVING PAST ALOFT TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. GIVEN THE CLOSE MODEL AGREEMENT HERE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
BLEND OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF AND NAM12 FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL GO THROUGH BY MID MORNING...THOUGH...AND START US ON OUR DESCENT
TO SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS THAT WILL BE IN HERE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END
WITH ITS PASSAGE...THOUGH THAT SHORTWAVE CROSSING OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON AND A COMBINATION OF WRAP AROUND AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PCPN MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE EVENING
EXPECT THE LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR
A BRIEF TIME. THESE WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A DUSTING OF
ACCUMULATION BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR AND ARRIVING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES MONDAY MORNING...
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 20S.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS...TD...
AND WINDS UP TO 21Z TODAY AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. DID MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POINT TEMPERATURE DATA
FOR MAXES AND MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR
TO A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE TODAY BUT WENT ABOVE ALL OF IT FOR THE
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES LATER THIS EVENING AND THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...MONDAY WAS KEPT DRY IN LINE WITH ALL THE MOS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A COUPLE OF SURGES OF COLD AIR...ALTHOUGH A BIT
OF LIGHT PRECIP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE COLDEST PART OF THE FIRST
SURGE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WITH SATURATION
REACHING TO -10C...A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM CARRIED ALONG BY RAPID FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON TUESDAY. PRECIP WITH
THIS IS LIKELY TO STAY TO OUR NORTH...BUT WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
AND AN ALLOWABLE MARGIN OF ERROR...HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW IN OUR EXTREME NORTH. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE WAY
FOR THE SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
THE ONSLAUGHT BEGINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY MORNING...READINGS SHOULD BE NEAR
ZERO...WITH COLDER VALLEYS PROBABLY BELOW ZERO. DESPITE SOME
SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...ONLY A LIMITED RECOVERY IS FORECAST IN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE TEENS.
IT WILL STILL BE VERY COLD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BY NEXT SATURDAY AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DROPS ESE INTO THE CONUS. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SURFACE SYSTEM WHICH
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT PRECIP... WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
LITTLE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT. IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BY NEXT
WEEKEND...AND HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA AT A QUICKER
PACE SOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NORTH OF KENTUCKY FURTHER
DEEPENS. THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS NOW CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS SHIFTING EAST...AS WELL. THE LINGERING
RAIN OVER THE AREA WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES PARTICULARLY
WHEN SOME PATCHY FOG MOVES OVER THE TAF SITES. WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS
NOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE TAF SITES...CIGS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW
AND MID REACHES OF THE VFR CATEGORY. THE STEADY RAIN WILL END BEFORE
DAYBREAK AT MOST SPOTS...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS WILL SEND LOWER CIGS BACK INTO THE AREA...AS WELL. WITH
900MB WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS...LLWS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT EXITS SUNDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
252 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2015
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 230 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2015
Big weather changes are in store during the short term period as a
strong storm system continues to cross the Ohio Valley. As of 230
am, the latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb RAP heights shows
intense southwesterly flow remaining across the forecast area as the
main shortwave trough lifts through Missouri into northern Illinois.
A secondary PV anomaly is crossing through Oklahoma. At the surface,
a cold front is beginning to move into the LMK CWA. Ahead of this
boundary, conditions are very mild as readings have help up in the
upper 50s to near 60 degrees.
Plan on scattered rain showers and/or drizzle to persist through
the early morning hours, ending southwest to northeast as the main
upper level forcing lifts into Ohio. Then, for the remainder of
this morning, we`ll be under the influence of a dry slot, waiting
for the aforementioned secondary PV anomaly to pivot across the
Ohio Valley this afternoon. 04.00z guidance still shows a good
amount of PV advection with this wave, low level lapse rates
approaching 8-9C/km and weak instability. Meso-models depict
intermittent convective rain showers developing this afternoon and
some of the perkier ones may be strong enough to mix down gusty
winds 30-35 mph. As temperatures aloft crash and reach -10C, there
will be a brief window where precipitation may changeover to snow
showers, especially north of KY parkways. A quick dusting is
possible on grassy surfaces but overall not expecting any impacts.
High temperatures will occur this morning, then plan on readings to
steadily fall throughout the day, reaching the mid 30s to lower 40s
by mid/late afternoon. Combined with a brisk west wind 10-20 mph and
wind chills will be in the 20s by this evening. Quite a change in 24
hours.
As the new work and school week begins Monday morning, a fresh surge
of Arctic air will have taken hold of the forecast area. Plan on
morning temperatures in the teens to lower 20s. A steady
north/northwest wind will make it feel more like +5 to +10F. High
temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees below normal, struggling to
reach the upper 20s.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 248 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2015
...Very Cold Temperatures and Wind Chills Mid-Week...
A small, weakening area of low pressure will zip quickly by to our
north early Tuesday morning. Models have been fairly consistent and
continue to be in decent agreement with this feature, taking the
great majority of its associated precipitation to our north through
Illinois, central/northern Indiana, and Ohio. The best chance for
any dusting in the LMK CWA would be north of a Paoli-Madison line,
with scattered flurries possible as far south as the Interstate 64
corridor. Atmospheric cross-sections continue to show a good amount
of dry air in the low levels, even in the far north of the LMK CWA,
lending credence to the idea that there will be minimal impact here.
A very impressive dome of frigid high pressure will invade from the
northwest behind Tuesday`s system. This high, already very cold to
begin with, will slide across extensive snowpack in the Plains and
Midwest on its way to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, limiting
moderation of the airmass. On Wednesday, sunrise temperatures
should be in the teens, and will fall from there into the single
digits in Indiana and the lower and middle teens in Kentucky by
suppertime. Winds will be brisk and gusty in a tight pressure
gradient on the nose of the incoming high, possibly gusting to
around 20 mph as temperatures fall. Wind chills Wednesday afternoon
and evening over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky will be in
the -5 to -15 range.
By dawn on Thursday the center of the high will be right over us.
Any breeze will be light, and what breeze there is may be coming in
from the northwest off the Midwestern snow field. Skies should be
clear. So, very cold temperatures can be expected. Southern
Indiana locations will dip slightly below zero, with lows around
zero in Kentucky all the way down to the Tennessee border.
A weakening cold front will pass through on Friday morning
completely dry with high pressure centers ahead of and behind it,
blocking any moisture supply. Then, behind the departing front,
another Canadian high for Friday night/Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1210 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2015
As of 05z, all TAF sites remain ahead of surface cold front
which lies along the IN/IL border south through far western KY and
TN. The front is slated to cross through the state over the next few
hours noted by a wind shift to the southwest. Ahead of this
boundary, there is a batch of MVFR ceilings with pockets of VFR
around LEX and isolated IFR to the west of BWG. Expecting
predominately low-end MVFR /1200 to 1500 ft/ ceilings through the
morning hours but could not rule out a period of 800-1000 ft
ceilings at BWG/SDF in the early pre-dawn hours. Rain showers will
become more drizzle, especially at SDF/BWG. Visibilities along and
behind the front vary from 1-3 sm, worse in drizzle. Tried to time
this activity coming through BWG/SDF but observations have been
bouncing around the last few hours so showed a general trend.
A dry slot looks to end precipitation for the mid morning hours, but
an upper level feature along with steepening lapse rates will result
in scattered rain showers by late morning and for much of the
afternoon hours. The main impact will be west winds mixed down as
guidance points to near 25 kt gusts. Rain showers may transition to
or mix with snow showers at SDF toward the late afternoon/evening
hours. Saturation in the lowest levels will keep MVFR ceilings in
place through the period, though conditions should improve toward
the end of the current TAF period.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........ZBT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
111 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE HEAVIER
RAIN TAPERS OFF IN THE EAST WHILE THE STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND WX PATTER INTO SUNDAY MORNING BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR/NAM12 GUIDANCE. ALSO FINE TUNED THE
T AND TD GRIDS PER THE CURRENT OBS...TRENDS...AND BCCONSSHORT
GUIDANCE. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER. ALL THE LIGHTNING AS BEEN
BOTTLED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND BASED ON TRAJECTORIES...IT JUST
WON`T MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. WITH THIS SAID...HEAVIER RAIN THREAT
SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING AS HRRR AND RAP ARE SHOWING A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IN
FACT...IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN COULD BE MOVING OUT AS EARLY AS 4 OR 5 AM.
WITH RAINFALL RATES AT BEST AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH PER
HOUR...REALLY DON`T SEE MUCH OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINING. THE
WIND THREAT REMAINS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS VAD WIND PROFILE
CONTINUES TO SHOW 35 TO 40 MPH WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015
COLD FRONT HAS NOW CROSSED WESTERN KENTUCKY. AMPLE MOISTURE IS
PUSHING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE
NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE THUNDER THREAT
MAY EXIT AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWS OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK. PRECIPITABLE WATER
REMAIN AROUND 1.4 TONIGHT WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY
JANUARY. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT THE 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE AS WE WON`T LIKELY SEE THIS KIND OF RAINFALL TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS JUST UNDER 2 INCHES IN
SOME PLACES...SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME MINOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CERTAINLY PONDING ON ROADS WILL BE AN ISSUE DUE TO
THE HEAVY NATURE OF THE RAIN. ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO ALLOW FOR
A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENING. ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES TO SHOW A STEADY TEMPERATURE CURVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH TEXAS PANHANDLE...WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...GRAZING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BEFORE MERGING INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM
AND LOSING CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH. MEANWHILE...MUCH OF KY WILL
EXPERIENCE STRONG SW TO NE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AS LONGWAVE
TROUGHING TAKES HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE AXIS OF
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN KY BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
IMPRESSIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.
CURRENTLY...A WARM FRONT HAS JUST PASSED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
MUCH OF KY...EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS HAS ALLOWED VERY UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES TO FLOW INTO THE CWA...SUCH AS 64 DEGREES HERE AT
THE NWS OFFICE...67 AT QUICKSAND...AND 68 DEGREES AT WHITESBURG. THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WAS IN PLACE JUST AHEAD OF THIS WARM
FRONT /AS STRONG OVERRUNNING WAS TAKING PLACE EARLIER IN THE DAY/ IS
NOW STARTING TO SUBSIDE...THUS ALLOWING STRONG SSW WINDS TO BEGIN
REACHING THE GROUND. PRECIP IS ALSO CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SW...CURRENTLY SCT TO WIDESPREAD RAIN IS FALLING
ACROSS THE REGION. WE HAVE HAD A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS MORNING...SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER GOING IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE DAY. EXPECT ANY HEAVY SHOWERS TO RESULT IN WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30MPH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO ALL OF THIS...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW...JUST WEST OF KY. AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THIS COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE LATEST GFS40 MODEL IS
PROJECTING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6Z
/WEST/ AND 12Z /EAST/ OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IT IS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THIS COLD FRONT THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ONGOING...CURRENTLY SPANNING FROM MEMPHIS TO WESTERN OHIO. THIS
CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT/S WAY INTO OUR CWA AND MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP THAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...WENT MUCH
HIGHER THAN THE MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED IF WE STAY WELL IN THE 50S FOR LOWS. MODELS ARE STILL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY...SO NO DRASTIC CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TIMING AND PRECIP AMOUNTS AS
THE PREFRONTAL/FRONTAL PRECIP MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. KEPT
OVERNIGHT QPF BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCH AND A QUARTER AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
STRONG WINDS ALOFT AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO INCREASE ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AN
IMPRESSIVE BLAST OF DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE WRLY DIRECTION. ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE DRASTICALLY REDUCED WITH ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES OCCUR. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN AS IT TAPERS OFF
SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY REMAINING SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL BE CAUGHT IN AN
UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS FALLING TO -10C
OR LOWER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS
SUCH...CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE SE SUNDAY
NIGHT...EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BELOW
-10C ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A COUPLE OF SURGES OF COLD AIR...ALTHOUGH A BIT
OF LIGHT PRECIP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE COLDEST PART OF THE FIRST
SURGE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WITH SATURATION
REACHING TO -10C...A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM CARRIED ALONG BY RAPID FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON TUESDAY. PRECIP WITH
THIS IS LIKELY TO STAY TO OUR NORTH...BUT WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
AND AN ALLOWABLE MARGIN OF ERROR...HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW IN OUR EXTREME NORTH. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE WAY
FOR THE SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
THE ONSLAUGHT BEGINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY MORNING...READINGS SHOULD BE NEAR
ZERO...WITH COLDER VALLEYS PROBABLY BELOW ZERO. DESPITE SOME
SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...ONLY A LIMITED RECOVERY IS FORECAST IN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE TEENS.
IT WILL STILL BE VERY COLD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BY NEXT SATURDAY AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DROPS ESE INTO THE CONUS. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SURFACE SYSTEM WHICH
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT PRECIP... WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
LITTLE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT. IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BY NEXT
WEEKEND...AND HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA AT A QUICKER
PACE SOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NORTH OF KENTUCKY FURTHER
DEEPENS. THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS NOW CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS SHIFTING EAST...AS WELL. THE LINGERING
RAIN OVER THE AREA WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES PARTICULARLY
WHEN SOME PATCHY FOG MOVES OVER THE TAF SITES. WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS
NOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE TAF SITES...CIGS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW
AND MID REACHES OF THE VFR CATEGORY. THE STEADY RAIN WILL END BEFORE
DAYBREAK AT MOST SPOTS...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS WILL SEND LOWER CIGS BACK INTO THE AREA...AS WELL. WITH
900MB WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS...LLWS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT EXITS SUNDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
334 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015
UPPER MICHIGAN IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE STRONGER AND PRECIPITATION
PRODUCING SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE
LOW THAT MOVED THROUGH MINNESOTA LAST NIGHT HAS LEFT A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THAT TROUGH...SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND THE RIGHT REAR OF THE SPLIT NORTHERN STREAM JET
STREAK. FARTHER SOUTH...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE A SECOND
WEAKER WAVE IS NEARING IT FROM THE NORTHWEST IN COLORADO. BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES AND BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH
SOUTHEAST UPPER MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING (PRODUCING
1-1.5IN OF SNOW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN)...CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL OVER
UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS IS DUE TO THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE DRYING ALOFT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. ONCE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE DEPARTED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...SAW A TRANSITION TO BR AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ON THE AUTOMATED STATIONS. CALLING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA HAS SHOWN A TRANSITION FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER NORTH AT OUR OFFICE...WE HAVE BEEN JUST
SEEING A FEW FLURRIES DUE TO CLOUD LAYER BEING RIGHT AT THE EDGE OF
THE MORE FAVORABLE ICE CRYSTAL REGION. EXPECT THIS
BORDERLINE/LIMITED CONDITION TO CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST. WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND UNTREATED ROADS BECOMING
SLIPPERY FOR THE AREAS NOT CURRENTLY COVERED BY THE ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE FEATURE OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES OVER THE U.P. TONIGHT.
THE STRONG TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING A LOW
FROM 1007MB OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO 998MB BETWEEN LAKE
ERIE/ONTARIO AT 12Z SUNDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN LAKE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE
SYNOPTIC LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION (TIED TO THE 850-650MB
FGEN) LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.15 INCH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE CWA
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
10-15 TO 1 AS THERE IS STILL A PERIOD OF THE CLOUD BEING ABOVE/BELOW
THE DGZ. BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION TO A BRIEF (2-4HR)
PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE LOWEST 10-12KFT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE IS WITHIN THE DGZ. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
FLUFFIER SNOW AND RATIOS RISING TOWARDS OR EVEN ABOVE 20-1. DON/T
FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING MUCH ABOVE THAT DUE TO THE FORCING THAT IS
EXPECTED ABOVE THE DGZ. THUS...SYNOPTIC SNOW WOULD AMOUNT TO
1 TO 2.5-3.0 INCHES...WITH THE GREATEST OVER THE WEST HALF. BUT AS
IS NORMALLY THE CASE WITH LAKE SUPERIOR AND OUR TERRAIN
INFLUENCES...THAT ISN/T THE COMPLETE STORY ON THE SNOWFALL.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE
850-700MB TROUGH...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 19Z RAP ANALYZED
OF -5C TO -7C TO -19C EAST AND -24C WEST BY 18Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
THEN TRANSITIONING TO PURE LAKE EFFECT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
DEPARTS ON SUNDAY. THE HELP FROM THE LAKE WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE
NORTHERLY WIND LOCATIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT AND
THEN WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING AND WEST-NORTHWEST
BY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH THAT COLD AIR SURGING IN...THE CLOUD LAYER
ON SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION TO BEING ABOVE THE DGZ. THUS...WOULD
EXPECT A TRANSITION OF THE SNOWFLAKES TO COLUMNS/PLATES AND LOWER
SNOW RATIOS BELOW 20-1. CONTINUED THE TREND TOWARDS THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS FOR QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED AREAS (0.25-0.40 IN). THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT OVER THE FAVORED NORTH WIND
AREAS OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS 5.5-6.0 INCHES. THE LOWERING RATIOS
ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO LOWER AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST...BUT COULD
STILL SEE 2-5 INCHES IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WINDS AREAS OVER THE
EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 45 MPH
(HIGHEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR). THAT WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND
COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED SNOW...SHOULD SEE VISIBILITIES
FREQUENTLY REDUCED BELOW ONE MILE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THUS...THINK THE GOING ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH THE FORECASTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND IMPACT WITH THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM
BLOWING SNOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THINK SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH 12HR WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (DUE TO THE
OVERALL AVERAGE SNOW RATIO BEING JUST BELOW OUR LAKE EFFECT WARNING
CRITERIA). BUT WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW FALLING ON A WEEKEND
OVERNIGHT AND THE EXPECTED COVERAGE FAIRLY LOCALIZED...WILL KEEP
THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
SOMEWHAT REPETITIOUS PATTERN THIS WEEK AS WE WILL SEE THREE SURGES
OF COLD AIR...WITH SFC RIDGING BETWEEN THESE SURGES. PATTERN LOOKS
TO POSSIBLY MODIFY FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
KEEPS CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING LOW. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS
GOOD MON THROUGH THU NIGHT.
12Z MON WILL BE A VERY COLD START TO A VERY COLD DAY AS THE FIRST
BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS MON ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10F AT COPPER HARBOR AND FROM GRAND MARAIS E
TO AROUND -5F OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. WIND CHILLS AT
18Z MON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM -15F E TO -25F W. NW WIND LES
WILL BE ONGOING...BUT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME CONFINED TO THE
KEWEENAW AND FAR NERN UPPER MI LATE IN THE DAY INTO MON NIGHT AS A
SFC RIDGE MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW. A
CLIPPER ALSO LOOKS TO MOVE S OF THE CWA...KEEP ALL OR MOST OF THE
PRECIP FROM THE SYSTEM S OF THE CWA. THE VERY COLD AIR WILL MEAN THE
IDEAL DGZ WILL NOT BE TAPPED INTO AND SNOWFLAKE SIZE WILL BE QUITE
SMALL...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VIS REDUCTIONS IN LES AREAS.
ALSO...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON...LEADING TO
FURTHER VIS REDUCTIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. NOT
LOOKING AT ANYTHING MORE THAN NUISANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN
BACKING FLOW WITH TIME AND LOW SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. LOWS MON NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG PARTS OF THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE TO AROUND -15F INTERIOR W AND CENTRAL.
LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN NWLY AGAIN TUE INTO EARLY WED AS THE SECOND
COLD WAVE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN LES IN NW WIND
SNOWBELTS...WITH INCREASED WINDS/BLOWING SNOW. COULD SEE ADVISORY
LEVEL EVENT TUE INTO EARLY WED AS FLOW WILL BE MORE CONSTANT...WITH
THE MAIN HAZARD BEING REDUCED VIS DUE TO LOW SLR AND BLOWING SNOW.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATER THAN ON MONDAY...BUT WILL STILL
BE LIMITED BY THE SMALL FLAKE SIZE. TUE WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. LOW TUE NIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MON NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS ON WED LOOK SIMILAR TO MON.
ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH LATE WED INTO EARLY THU...PUSHING LES
INTO MORE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING INTO THE REGION...BUT THIS TIME
ACROSS THE CWA. ONLY MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
CLIPPER AS MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES.
HOWEVER...BEHIND THE CLIPPER IS THE THIRD WAVE OF COLD AIR AND NW
LOW LEVEL WINDS. LES WILL INCREASE IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER AND CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO FRI. SLR VALUES AND GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED AGAIN. VIS REDUCTIONS REMAIN THE
GREATEST THREAT.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FRI AND SAT DUE TO POOR
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015
WITH GUSTY N TO NW WINDS/BLSN AND SNOW SHOWERS...EXPECT LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX. CONDITIONS AT KIWD
WILL IMPROVE TO IFR LATE THIS MORNING AND TO MVFR LATE IN THE AFTN
AS WINDS BACK SLOWLY AND PUSH MAJORITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO JUST N
OF THE TERMINAL. AT KCMX...INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR THRU THE DAY WILL
RESULT IN SNOWFLAKES BECOMING SMALLER AND FINER AND MUCH MORE
EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS. COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS/BLSN...KCMX
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIFR THRU THE MORNING WITH FURTHER REDUCTION TO
VLIFR LIKELY IN THE AFTN AND THRU TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO A MORE
FAVORABLE WNW DIRECTION FOR PERSISTENT/HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. AT
KSAW...IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL TO LIFR OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF
SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND IS ENHANCED BY INCREASING UPSLOPE
WIND OFF THE LAKE. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO IFR MID TO LATE MORNING AND
THEN MVFR IN THE AFTN AS WINDS BACK...RESULTING IN DIMINISHED
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015
THE BUSY MARINE WEATHER WE HAVE HAD RECENTLY WILL CONTINUE WITH
GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RETURNING AND HOISTED GALE WARNINGS
AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COUPLE MORE GALE EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ON LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST
GALES EXPECTED THEN. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH
MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TROUGH MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NORTH GALES TO 35-40 KTS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR POURS OVER
LK SUPERIOR. GALES SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NW-W
WINDS TO 30 KTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY.
W-SW WINDS TO 25 KTS ON TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES UPPER
GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE CLIPPER...PLAN ON ANOTHER ROUND OF NW GALES
AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ001>005-009-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ001>003.
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MIZ009>011.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR MIZ005>007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>250-263>266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR LSZ240>248-
263>266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1149 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015
UPPER MICHIGAN IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE STRONGER AND PRECIPITATION
PRODUCING SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE
LOW THAT MOVED THROUGH MINNESOTA LAST NIGHT HAS LEFT A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THAT TROUGH...SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND THE RIGHT REAR OF THE SPLIT NORTHERN STREAM JET
STREAK. FARTHER SOUTH...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE A SECOND
WEAKER WAVE IS NEARING IT FROM THE NORTHWEST IN COLORADO. BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES AND BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH
SOUTHEAST UPPER MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING (PRODUCING
1-1.5IN OF SNOW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN)...CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL OVER
UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS IS DUE TO THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE DRYING ALOFT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. ONCE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE DEPARTED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...SAW A TRANSITION TO BR AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ON THE AUTOMATED STATIONS. CALLING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA HAS SHOWN A TRANSITION FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER NORTH AT OUR OFFICE...WE HAVE BEEN JUST
SEEING A FEW FLURRIES DUE TO CLOUD LAYER BEING RIGHT AT THE EDGE OF
THE MORE FAVORABLE ICE CRYSTAL REGION. EXPECT THIS
BORDERLINE/LIMITED CONDITION TO CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST. WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND UNTREATED ROADS BECOMING
SLIPPERY FOR THE AREAS NOT CURRENTLY COVERED BY THE ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE FEATURE OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES OVER THE U.P. TONIGHT.
THE STRONG TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING A LOW
FROM 1007MB OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO 998MB BETWEEN LAKE
ERIE/ONTARIO AT 12Z SUNDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN LAKE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE
SYNOPTIC LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION (TIED TO THE 850-650MB
FGEN) LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.15 INCH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE CWA
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
10-15 TO 1 AS THERE IS STILL A PERIOD OF THE CLOUD BEING ABOVE/BELOW
THE DGZ. BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION TO A BRIEF (2-4HR)
PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE LOWEST 10-12KFT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE IS WITHIN THE DGZ. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
FLUFFIER SNOW AND RATIOS RISING TOWARDS OR EVEN ABOVE 20-1. DON/T
FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING MUCH ABOVE THAT DUE TO THE FORCING THAT IS
EXPECTED ABOVE THE DGZ. THUS...SYNOPTIC SNOW WOULD AMOUNT TO
1 TO 2.5-3.0 INCHES...WITH THE GREATEST OVER THE WEST HALF. BUT AS
IS NORMALLY THE CASE WITH LAKE SUPERIOR AND OUR TERRAIN
INFLUENCES...THAT ISN/T THE COMPLETE STORY ON THE SNOWFALL.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE
850-700MB TROUGH...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 19Z RAP ANALYZED
OF -5C TO -7C TO -19C EAST AND -24C WEST BY 18Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
THEN TRANSITIONING TO PURE LAKE EFFECT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
DEPARTS ON SUNDAY. THE HELP FROM THE LAKE WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE
NORTHERLY WIND LOCATIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT AND
THEN WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING AND WEST-NORTHWEST
BY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH THAT COLD AIR SURGING IN...THE CLOUD LAYER
ON SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION TO BEING ABOVE THE DGZ. THUS...WOULD
EXPECT A TRANSITION OF THE SNOWFLAKES TO COLUMNS/PLATES AND LOWER
SNOW RATIOS BELOW 20-1. CONTINUED THE TREND TOWARDS THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS FOR QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED AREAS (0.25-0.40 IN). THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT OVER THE FAVORED NORTH WIND
AREAS OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS 5.5-6.0 INCHES. THE LOWERING RATIOS
ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO LOWER AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST...BUT COULD
STILL SEE 2-5 INCHES IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WINDS AREAS OVER THE
EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 45 MPH
(HIGHEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR). THAT WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND
COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED SNOW...SHOULD SEE VISIBILITIES
FREQUENTLY REDUCED BELOW ONE MILE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THUS...THINK THE GOING ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH THE FORECASTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND IMPACT WITH THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM
BLOWING SNOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THINK SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH 12HR WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (DUE TO THE
OVERALL AVERAGE SNOW RATIO BEING JUST BELOW OUR LAKE EFFECT WARNING
CRITERIA). BUT WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW FALLING ON A WEEKEND
OVERNIGHT AND THE EXPECTED COVERAGE FAIRLY LOCALIZED...WILL KEEP
THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015
TROUGHING AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF 2015 OVER NORTH AMERICA. STILL
INDICTIONS THAT A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
DEVELOPS BY MID MONTH. ECMWF INDICATES THIS PATTERN SWITCH MAY OCCUR
AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEKEND WHILE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER. WOULD TEND TO
THINK IT MAY TAKE LONGER GIVEN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR OVER THE
REGION AS LATE AS FRIDAY. EITHER WAY THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE A
VERY COLD ONE WITH SUBZERO HIGHS ON SOME DAYS AND DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS. PATTERN DOES NOT HOLD MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD
SNOW...BUT MAINLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR
FAVORED BY NORTHWEST OR WEST WINDS.
LES IN NW FLOW AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE ONGOING SUNDAY NIGHT
IN WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. THOUGH MAIN SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA...MULTIPLE SMALLER SHORTWAVES MAY PROVIDE SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO
LES. OVER-WATER INSTABILITY EASILY EXTREME WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO
-26C TO -28C AND 950MB TEMPS -22C TO -27C. LK SUPERIOR TEMPS STILL
+2C TO 3C. INVERSION HEIGHTS TOP OUT AT THE END OF THE FETCH OVER
EASTERN LK SUPERIOR 6-7KFT. DUE TO SUCH COLD AIR THE SLR/S WILL BE
WELL BLO 20:1 AS SNOWFLAKES WITHIN CONVECTIVE LAYER WILL BE PLATES
AND COLUMNS INSTEAD OF DENDRITES. RESULT IS A SNOW THAT WILL NOT
ADD UP MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WILL BE GOOD AT REDUCING
VISIBILITY. BASED ON 925MB WINDS...STEADIER LES EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND FOR THE SNOW BELTS
EAST OF MARQUETTE. POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OR EXTENSION
OF CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR LES WITH LOW VSBY AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE NEEDED INTO MONDAY...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE
THIS ONCE WE GET THROUGH THE CURRENT ADVISORIES POSTED INTO SUNDAY.
OTHER THAN THE LES...THE COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY OVER THE CWA TO START THE WEEK. SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND LAKE INDUCED TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER UPR MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX OVERHEAD AT
THAT TIME. EVEN SO...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO PRODUCE NEAR
WARNING WIND CHILLS AS SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE -15F OR EVEN
-20F OVER FAR SW UPR MICHIGAN. STRONGER WINDS OF 10-15 MPH MAY BE
CLOSER TO LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING ALONG SOUTH SHORE OF LK SUPERIOR
WHERE TEMPS SHOULD BE MORE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH POSSIBLE WARNINGS OVER FAR SW UPR MICHIGAN. COORD
WITH DLH AND GRB AND ISSUED A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR AREAS OF SW UPR
MICHIGAN /GOGEBIC...IRON...DICKINSON/ WHERE WARNING CRITERIA OF -35F
HAS BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRING.
LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THIS SNOW WILL MAKE IT TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT BULK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
MISS UPR MICHIGAN. BY MONDAY AFTN AND MONDAY EVENING THOUGH...WINDS
BACKING WSW-SW AHEAD OF MORE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT DIVING SOUTHWARD OVER MANITOBA SHOULD PUSH THE LES OVER FAR
NORTHERN KEWEENAW AND OFFSHORE FM THE SNOW BELTS EAST OF MARQUETTE.
DOES NOT APPEAR WINDS BACK ENOUGH ON LK MICHIGAN TO BRING LES OFF LK
MICHIGAN INTO PLAY FOR SE CWA. LES STAYS MAINLY IN THE W FLOW AREAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT ARRIVE ON TUESDAY
WILL PUSH BACK TO NW FLOW AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS SHOW
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT HAS MORE OF AN AFFECT ON THE LES AS INVERSIONS
RISE UP TO 10 KFT AS MORE COLD AIR WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN BLO -26C
SLIDES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LIKE MONDAY...ALL OF CONVECTIVE
DEPTH IS AT TEMPS LOWER THAN DGZ...SO SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND LOW SLR/S.
NW WINDS IN MIXED LAYER NEAR 30 KTS...SO BLSN MORE OF AN ISSUE THAN
MONDAY. OVERALL THE POOR VSBY WILL CONINUE TO BE MAIN HAZARD FM THE
LES. AIR TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS MONDAY MORNING BUT COLD
FRONT AND PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS MORE ROBUST. LIKELY LOOKING AT
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR WEST HALF OF CWA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PROBABLY SHOULD STAY AWAY FM
ANY WARNING CRITERIA THOUGH.
COLD FRONT MOVES ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND 1045-1050MB HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OHIO
VALLEY. IN RESPONSE...BLYR WINDS BACK MORE WNW-W BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING SO THE LES WILL IN TURN SHIFT AROUND AND NOT STAY PUT IN ANY
ONE PLACE TOO LONG. BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE ACCUMS AND PERSISTENT
LOW VSBY WILL BE AT THE END OF THE FETCH IN THE SNOW BELTS TO EAST
OF MARQUETTE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON
THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER SURGE OF H85 TEMPS BLO -25C WILL DESCEND ON
THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY...WEST WINDS MAY BE
STIFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE STRONGER WINDS
ALONG WITH TEMPS LESS THAN 10 BLO WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE WEST HALF ON THURSDAY MORNING.
PROBABLY ARE GETTING THE THEME BY NOW. THIS WEEK LOOKS QUITE BRUTAL
IN TERMS OF THE PROLONGED DURATION OF BITTER COLD AND WIND CHILL
ISSUES. THIS WILL MAKE THE THAW EXPECTED FOR MID JANUARY FEEL ALL
THE MORE BETTER.
NW FLOW LES TO CLOSE THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT SATURDAY. THE NW WINDS
WILL RESULT IN MORE LAKE MODERATION SO TEMPS WILL BE PROBABLY BE
WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE NEED OF ANY MORE WIND CHILL HEADLINES ON
FRIDAY MORNING OR SATURDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SWATH OF LGT SNOW
SWEEP OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WARM AIR BEGINS TO PUSH
OVER THE REGION ATOP OF SLOWLY RETREATING COLD AIR NEAR SFC.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015
WITH GUSTY N TO NW WINDS/BLSN AND SNOW SHOWERS...EXPECT LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX. CONDITIONS AT KIWD
WILL IMPROVE TO IFR LATE THIS MORNING AND TO MVFR LATE IN THE AFTN
AS WINDS BACK SLOWLY AND PUSH MAJORITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO JUST N
OF THE TERMINAL. AT KCMX...INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR THRU THE DAY WILL
RESULT IN SNOWFLAKES BECOMING SMALLER AND FINER AND MUCH MORE
EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS. COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS/BLSN...KCMX
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIFR THRU THE MORNING WITH FURTHER REDUCTION TO
VLIFR LIKELY IN THE AFTN AND THRU TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO A MORE
FAVORABLE WNW DIRECTION FOR PERSISTENT/HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. AT
KSAW...IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL TO LIFR OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF
SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND IS ENHANCED BY INCREASING UPSLOPE
WIND OFF THE LAKE. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO IFR MID TO LATE MORNING AND
THEN MVFR IN THE AFTN AS WINDS BACK...RESULTING IN DIMINISHED
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015
THE BUSY MARINE WEATHER WE HAVE HAD RECENTLY WILL CONTINUE WITH
GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RETURNING AND HOISTED GALE WARNINGS
AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COUPLE MORE GALE EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ON LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST
GALES EXPECTED THEN. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH
MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TROUGH MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NORTH GALES TO 35-40 KTS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR POURS OVER
LK SUPERIOR. GALES SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NW-W
WINDS TO 30 KTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY.
W-SW WINDS TO 25 KTS ON TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES UPPER
GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE CLIPPER...PLAN ON ANOTHER ROUND OF NW GALES
AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ001>003.
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MIZ009>011.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
MIZ005>007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ004-005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-
267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ249-
250-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>248-263>265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR LSZ240>248-
263>265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
535 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
Surface high pressure is sliding east of the area this afternoon
allowing south winds to return. Temperatures have warmed into the
middle 20s to the lower 30s and temperatures will warm a few more
degrees the rest of this afternoon. As the high continues to push
off to the east, southwesterly winds will develop tonight and will
increase some ahead of a weak cold front that will push through
the area early Tuesday. This will swing the winds back to the
northwest. Lows tonight will drop into the lower 20s as highs warm
into the upper 20s to middle 30s Tuesday behind the weak front.
A very dry air mass is in place across the region so no
precipitation will occur with this frontal passage. Wind chill
values from around 10 degrees to the middle teens will occur
tonight into Tuesday morning as the winds increase some.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 210 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
A stronger cold front will sweep through the region Tuesday night
into Wednesday as another arctic air mass and area of high
pressure overspreads the area. This colder air mass will be
ushered in on gusty northerly winds which could gust around 30
mph at times on Wednesday. Moisture will again be limited with
this system, but lift will be better so think some flurries will
be possible on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning behind the
front especially across central Missouri.
The coldest temperatures of the winter season are expected with
this air mass as temperatures fall into the upper single digits
to middle teens Wednesday morning as the air mass slams into the
region. Then temperatures will not warm much during the day on
Wednesday as highs in the lower to middle teens are expected.
Lows Wednesday night into Thursday morning will drop well into the
single digits and a few locations will likely fall to near the
zero degree mark.
Wind chill values in the -10 to 0 range can be expected during the
early morning hours, including the morning commutes, on both
Wednesday and Thursday mornings. The coldest winds chills will
likely be north of I-44 where wind chills will near advisory
criteria levels.
Below normal temperatures will occur through the rest of the forecast
period as highs remain in the 20s through the work week, then
warming into the 30s during the weekend. A system may then
approach the area late in the weekend, but medium range models are
be very inconsistent from run to run and with each other with this
system so this is a low confidence forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions are expected through the
taf period. A surface trough will move through the terminals late
tonight/early Wednesday morning. This will result in a gradual shift
of winds to the northwest. Prior to the trough passage, LLWS will
develop early this evening and have continued it at all taf sites.
Only concern is models do indicate a band of stratus that will drop
southeast through Missouri behind the trough. NAM more robust with
this low level moisture and would indicate the potential for a
broken ceiling in the MVFR category. However, SREF and RAP both
showing lesser low level moisture with the bulk of it remaining east
of the taf sites. For now will keep mention of few-sct mainly after
12Z Tuesday but will have to be watched for later forecasts.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Raberding
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
338 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2015
System which has affected our region on Friday will continue to move
off to the north and east today into the Great Lakes. However...
a secondary shortwave currently over far south-central KS per 0730
UTC water vapor imagery. May be enough forcing for ascent associated
with this wave for some light snow showers in addition to the
more widespread flurries expected this morning. Did expand sch PoPs to
account for the possibility of measurable precipitation though snow
accumulations...if any...would be a dusting at best due to warm ground
conditions. Main change will be the much colder conditions behind
arctic front which will move through the area this morning. Highs will
range from the teens in northeast Missouri to mid 30s over portions of
southeast Missouri and south-central Illinois...though temps will drop
through the midday hour before steadying out this afternoon.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2015
(Tonight)
A cold/dry night is expected tonight as sfc anticyclone slides
southeastward toward the area. Winds will stay above 5 kts it looks
like and keep temperatures from bottoming out...though still appears
to be 10-15 degrees below normal with lows in the single digits/teens.
(Monday - Monday Night)
Still monitoring Alberta clipper for the Monday/Monday night period.
Latest model guidance continues to trend a bit faster and further to the
southwest with the track of the sfc low and associated snow axis. For
our CWFA...still do not see too much impact even with a southwestward
shift as main snow axis should stay across eastern IA/N IL. However...
did boost PoPs back up into the sch/chc category late Monday/Monday night
to account for the SW shift in the model guidance.
As for temperatures...used non-diurnal temperatures as after temps reach
their minimums in the upper teens/twenties...temps should rise several
degrees overnight due to southwesterly low-level flow within "warm"
sector of clipper.
(Tuesday - Saturday)
A predominantly dry...but very cold period still is in store for next
week. A strong arctic cold front will pass through the region on Tuesday
night with what will be by far and away the coldest air of the winter
of 2014-2015. Also could not rule out some light snow being squeezed out
Tuesday night as models depict some weak mid/upper level lift beneath
right-entrance region of 140-kt jet streak. Did not introduce PoPs at this
time as confidence in any measurable snowfall is low. This arctic airmass
in some ways looks to be as strong as the arctic blast of January 2014. A
1055+ hPa sfc high will slide into the middle of the country on Wednesday
with 850-hPa temperatures plummeting below -20C. Surface temperatures...even
with a total lack of snow cover over our CWFA...will be 20-30+ degrees
below normal Tuesday night through Thursday morning. Strong pressure
gradient/NW sfc winds will combine with the very cold ambient air
temperatures to produce dangerous wind chill values for this same period.
Minimum wind chill values will likely dip below -20F for portions of
northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois and will eventually warrant at
least an advisory in due time.
Temperatures will slowly moderate Thursday through Saturday but will stay
below normal.
As for chances of snow...sch/chc PoPs exist on Friday night and Saturday
as return flow/WAA ensues at low levels coincident with a shortwave
transversing the region. Medium range guidance has been highly inconsistent
however...so confidence in the chances at snow for this timeframe are
below average.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2015
Surface low pressure beginning to move east northeast across
southern IL in response to upper system lifting northeast. Upper
system no longer closed and is weakening as it moves northeast.
the southern extent of the predipitation appears to be dissipating
per latest radar loops. HRRR had this trend, but it is too sparse
with the current drizzle/snow over the NW quarter of MO. Will
carry some light snow at COU and UIN for a couple of hours. Strong
nothwest wind will kick in and begin to scour out the fog.
Ceilings gradualy lift going VFR after 00z.
Specifics for KSTL: Drizzle and fog will likely persist until the
stronger northwest wind kicks in. Looks like the precipitation
will lift north and dissipate so will leave any snow/flurries
out of the forecast. Gust northwest wind and gradually liftig
ceilings will be the storm for Sunday.
JPK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 30 12 25 23 / 20 0 5 10
Quincy 22 5 19 19 / 20 0 20 30
Columbia 20 8 24 23 / 20 0 5 5
Jefferson City 22 9 26 24 / 10 0 5 5
Salem 35 13 25 22 / 20 0 0 10
Farmington 33 14 27 25 / 10 0 0 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1134 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 938 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2015
Eastern Missouri and western Illinois are stuck in a weak cyclonic
lobe of surface pressure at this time, with the old frontal system
well to the east in the OH/TN Valley region and the first Arctic
cold front pushing into northwest MO. This weak flow has resulted
in fog and quite a bit of drizzle, some of which is measurable.
Meanwhile to the west, the coverage of precipitation is increasing
across western MO in response to large scale forcing/ascent
associated with the shortwave across eastern KS into northeast OK.
The changeover to snow in western MO is taking its time with temps
still in the mid-upper 30s. Present indications are the
aforementioned shortwave will rotate east northeast tonight in
association with the lifting and weakening upper trof. This will
result in precipitation spreading from western MO across central
and northeast MO into western IL through the late evening and
overnight, with St. Louis on the tail end. I`m not real excited
about seeing much measurable snowfall given the slow changeover,
marginal temps, and in general a weakening system. Best odds of
accumulations will be in north central/northeast MO where around
an inch is possible. The Arctic front itself will continue to
surge southeast for the remainder of the night into early Sunday
morning with gusty northwest winds ushering some mighty chilly air
into the area and scouring out the soupy IFR conditions. Cloudy
skies, falling temps, and flurries likely through the day on Sunday.
Glass
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2015
Forecast on track with upper level low/shortwave moving northeast
across the region this evening. Precipitation associated with this
feature should start as rain and then transition to snow before
ending. Best chance of an inch of accumulation will be across the
far northern CWA. Otherwise, some mood snow showers or flurries
will be the rule as colder air pours into the region overnight
into Sunday morning. Sunday will be breezy and much colder with
temperatures continuing to slowly fall throughout the day.
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2015
Temperature will moderate some on Monday as a clipper system
tracks north of the area. Have kept the forecast dry based on the
consensus track of the system to our north.
Pattern really amplifies behind this clipper with a very strong
arctic high pressure system moving into the mid section of the
country for midweek. This will be the coldest air we have seen this
winter season. Expect temperatures to be at 20 to 30 degrees below
normal Tuesday night through Thursday. As previous forecaster
stated, below zero temperatures are likely for a large portion of
the area Thursday morning as the center of the anticyclone will be
parked over head. The latest MEX guidance has below zero
temperatures at STL both Wednesday and Thursday morning - WITH NO
SNOW COVER. Have trended the forecast colder based on the latest
model data and expect wind chill values will warrent advisories to
be issued in the future.
Airmass really struggles to moderate before the next storm system
moves toward the area late next week and weekend. This could set the
stage for a more widespread winter weather event across the CWA
Friday night/Saturday morning. For now will keep chance POPs for
snow as the ECWMF does not depict as deep/strong of a
shortwave/surface reflection at this time.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2015
Surface low pressure beginning to move east northeast across
southern IL in response to upper system lifting northeast. Upper
system no longer closed and is weakening as it moves northeast.
the southern extent of the predipitation appears to be dissipating
per latest radar loops. HRRR had this trend, but it is too sparse
with the current drizzle/snow over the NW quarter of MO. Will
carry some light snow at COU and UIN for a couple of hours. Strong
nothwest wind will kick in and begin to scour out the fog.
Ceilings gradualy lift going VFR after 00z.
Specifics for KSTL: Drizzle and fog will likely persist until the
stronger northwest wind kicks in. Looks like the precipitation
will lift north and dissipate so will leave any snow/flurries
out of the forecast. Gust northwest wind and gradually liftig
ceilings will be the storm for Sunday.
JPK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 25 29 12 24 / 60 10 0 0
Quincy 17 20 5 18 / 80 10 0 0
Columbia 18 20 8 23 / 60 10 0 0
Jefferson City 19 23 8 25 / 60 10 0 0
Salem 31 34 13 23 / 20 20 0 0
Farmington 29 32 13 26 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1120 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015
Have issued a quick update to lower snow amounts south of I70 and
raise snow amounts across northern Missouri.
Water vapor with the 1.5 PVU pressure overlayed clearly shows the
strong shortwave over Kansas causing our weather mess locally.
Projecting this PV anomaly in time shows it lifting east-northward
right over the forecast area. This typically not a great scenario to
get deformation snowfall through the heart of the forecast area.
Rather, the drop in static stability associated with the PV anomaly
has lead to very "showery" type precip. This was likely enhanced by
the elevated instability from 00Z KTOP sounding showing ~160 J/kg for
a parcel lifted from above 700 mb. Earlier in the evening there was a
rapid transition from rain to snow in south central KS that to a
quick several inches of snow. This was associated with an area of
strong Fn convergence 750 to 700 mb layer along/north the developing
TROWAL as the system appeared to be peaking in intensity. The NAM
showed this area moving ENE but weakening as it did so and not really
being an issue. However, as the system matures, what looks like the
main deformation band is setting up over northern
Missouri/northeastern Kansas and corresponds to a newly strengthening
area of Fn convergence in the 700 to 650 mb layer along and just
north of the newly emerging TROWAL in the 300-305K layer. This shift
northward is supported by the latest HRRR and RUC as well as the
latest run of our local WRF-ARW.
The higher reflectivity returns showing up on radar in the last 30
minutes or so should continue to lift northward and feed into the
main deformation area to the north. Also, with the southeastern half
of the forecast area still above freezing, what has been snowing has
had an opportunity to accumulate as it melts on contact with the
warmer ground, cutting into accumulations further south.
So overnight snow amounts look like 1-2 inches in the northwestern half
of the forecast area with less than 1 inch amounts over the
southeastern half. Parts of the northern KC metro may still see 1-2
inches but lower amounts are expected further south.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 426 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015
Tonight:
The second phase of the approaching winter system will quickly make
its presence felt over our CWA. The latest satellite and radar data
reveal the rapid development of the deformation zone precipitation
shield across south central and central KS. Satellite trends appear
to support the latest operational NAM, GFS and ECMWF which depict a
more southern track (vs yesterday`s solutions) of the main
precipitation. The HRRR and RUC also confirm this. So, with only
minor adjustments needed have shifted the axis of heavier snowfall
a bit further south.
Model output via Bufkit and the operational model snow algorithms
all point to a general 1-2 inch swath with isolated amounts to 3
inches possible from east central KS through west central MO. Snow
amounts will be limited by 1) initially falling as rain and 2)
melting at onset due to above freezing temperatures. An expected
quick transition to snow due to strong dynamic forcing within the
deformation cloud shield and the eventual surge of strong cold air
advection should mitigate this melting. Also of note is the
convective looking nature of the growing deformation cloud shield.
Close inspection of Bufkit data and model soundings suggest CSI may
be possible for a brief period early this evening with elevated CAPE
values approaching 100 J/kg. Evening shift will need to keep an eye
on this for possible thunder-snow and rapid increase in snow rates.
Strong cold air advection will rush from the Central Plains this
evening. Upstream obs show single digit temperatures and wind gust
of 35-40 mph. Thus blowing snow tied to the baroclinc zone snow
which will form across southeast NE this evening will be added to
the northern and western CWA. Have also allowed light snow/flurries
to linger well after midnight as ice crystals will be produced down
into the boundary layer as temperatures fall to -15C within the
saturated cloud layer between 2500-5000ft agl.
Due to the combo of 25-35 mph winds and single digit temperatures
have added a wind chill advisory for the northwest tip of MO.
Sunday and Sunday Night:
Brutally cold. That`s all you need to know. A 1041 mb surface high
will sit over KS and western MO during this period. A stiff
northwest wind will diminish from west to east in the morning and
clouds will clear so we`ll get some relief from the cold. However,
the weight of h8 temperatures of -10C to -15C will limit highs to
mainly the teens.
Some mid level warm advection clouds streaming in from NE may be the
saving grace for below zero temperatures Monday night. That plus
very light winds may only generate wind chills from -5 to -15F.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 426 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015
Looking ahead to the extended...everyone may want to keep those
heavy winter coats out a while longer. The forecast continues to
remain cold and mostly dry until late in the upcoming work week. An
upper level ridge will remain planted across the western US coast
with a very wide longwave trough over the remainder of the US. This
places the CWA in northwest flow aloft with a number of disturbances
translating through the main flow. Each of these systems will
provide a reinforcing shot of cold air into the region. With snow
remaining on the ground, airmass modification will be minimal
allowing morning lows to tumble into the low single digits with a
few negative single digits along the MO/IA border Monday morning.
While the EC and GFS 850mb temperatures are off a few degrees from
each other, they are still bringing in temperatures ranging from -17 to
-25 C over the CWA. Thus, it is likely that lows will plummet into
the negative singles Wed morning across the northern half of CWA,
and then low singles on either side of zero by Thurs morning. High
temperatures look to warm into the upper teens and into the low and
mid 20s much of the week, except Wed when it will be tough to climb
into the teens. Precip-wise, the northeast corner of the CWA may see
some light snow Mon night as one of the previously mentioned systems
glances the area. Long-range models are also indicating that the
region may see increasing chances for precip late in the week, but
given that it is towards the end of the extended a lot can, and
probably will, change over the next several days as the system
begins to evolve.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015
Snow will continue to affect the KC terminals area until slowly
tapering off between 08Z-10Z. Conditions will be in and out of IFR
during the snowfall with gusty winds up to 25kts further restricting
visibilities. Will see a gradual improvement after the heavier precip
works its way out of the KC area around 08Z, with lingering snow
flurries until the early morning hours. Expecting MVFR ceilings
after this event with gusty winds continuing until the early
afternoon.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM CST Sunday FOR KSZ025-057-
103>105.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Sunday FOR KSZ102.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM CST Sunday FOR MOZ013>017-
020>025-028>033-037>039-043-044.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Sunday FOR MOZ001>008-011-
012.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday FOR MOZ001-002-
011.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDB
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Welsh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
952 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 938 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2015
Eastern Missouri and western Illinois are stuck in a weak cyclonic
lobe of surface pressure at this time, with the old frontal system
well to the east in the OH/TN Valley region and the first Arctic
cold front pushing into northwest MO. This weak flow has resulted
in fog and quite a bit of drizzle, some of which is measurable.
Meanwhile to the west, the coverage of precipitation is increasing
across western MO in response to large scale forcing/ascent
associated with the shortwave across eastern KS into northeast OK.
The changeover to snow in western MO is taking its time with temps
still in the mid-upper 30s. Present indications are the
aforementioned shortwave will rotate east northeast tonight in
association with the lifting and weakening upper trof. This will
result in precipitation spreading from western MO across central
and northeast MO into western IL through the late evening and
overnight, with St. Louis on the tail end. I`m not real excited
about seeing much measurable snowfall given the slow changeover,
marginal temps, and in general a weakening system. Best odds of
accumulations will be in north central/northeast MO where around
an inch is possible. The Arctic front itself will continue to
surge southeast for the remainder of the night into early Sunday
morning with gusty northwest winds ushering some mighty chilly air
into the area and scouring out the soupy IFR conditions. Cloudy
skies, falling temps, and flurries likely through the day on Sunday.
Glass
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2015
Forecast on track with upper level low/shortwave moving northeast
across the region this evening. Precipitation associated with this
feature should start as rain and then transition to snow before
ending. Best chance of an inch of accumulation will be across the
far northern CWA. Otherwise, some mood snow showers or flurries
will be the rule as colder air pours into the region overnight
into Sunday morning. Sunday will be breezy and much colder with
temperatures continuing to slowly fall throughout the day.
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2015
Temperature will moderate some on Monday as a clipper system
tracks north of the area. Have kept the forecast dry based on the
consensus track of the system to our north.
Pattern really amplifies behind this clipper with a very strong
arctic high pressure system moving into the mid section of the
country for midweek. This will be the coldest air we have seen this
winter season. Expect temperatures to be at 20 to 30 degrees below
normal Tuesday night through Thursday. As previous forecaster
stated, below zero temperatures are likely for a large portion of
the area Thursday morning as the center of the anticyclone will be
parked over head. The latest MEX guidance has below zero
temperatures at STL both Wednesday and Thursday morning - WITH NO
SNOW COVER. Have trended the forecast colder based on the latest
model data and expect wind chill values will warrent advisories to
be issued in the future.
Airmass really struggles to moderate before the next storm system
moves toward the area late next week and weekend. This could set the
stage for a more widespread winter weather event across the CWA
Friday night/Saturday morning. For now will keep chance POPs for
snow as the ECWMF does not depict as deep/strong of a
shortwave/surface reflection at this time.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 453 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2015
Closed upper low over north central Oklahoma opening as it lifts
northeast. Current models reflect this in the precipitation
forecast with the precipitation diminishing as it lifts northeast.
The latest HRRR is also not bullish on the precipitation with most
of it gone by 07z. A period of light snow is certainly possible
for COU and UIN with a 03z to 07z for COU and and hour later for
UIN. Northwest wind picks up from 06z to 12z west to east as the
surfact low moves northeast out of the area. IFR ceilings should
lift to MVFR as the wind picks up with VFR beginning to show up
after 20z.
Specifics for KSTL: Current forecast is dry and given the latest
HRRR will leave it that way. At best it would be flurries that
would not impact visibility.IFR ceilings lifting around 12z and
VFR by 00z as the 850mb relative humidity drips off to 20%.
JPK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 25 29 12 24 / 60 10 0 0
Quincy 17 20 5 18 / 80 10 0 0
Columbia 18 20 8 23 / 60 10 0 0
Jefferson City 19 23 8 25 / 60 10 0 0
Salem 31 34 13 23 / 20 20 0 0
Farmington 29 32 13 26 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
858 PM MST MON JAN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
THE ARCTIC FRONT MADE IT INTO KLVM AROUND 01Z. NONE OF THE MODELS
HAD IT MOVING THAT FAR TO THE W. KLVM ALSO REPORTED SOME VERY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING. THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KBLX
RADAR SHOWED THE ARCTIC AIR WAS ABOUT 6000 FT DEEP AND WINDS AT
7000 FT HAD RECENTLY TURNED W SHOWING SIGNS THAT THE ARCTIC AIR
WAS STARTING TO SHALLOW OUT. WINDS ABOVE THE FRONT WERE STRONG
FROM THE W AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS HAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
30S INDICATING WARM AIR OVERRUNNING THE COLD AIR. THIS WAS CAUSING
THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION AT KLVM. THE MODELS INDICATED THAT THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT NE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE ARCTIC AIR TO CONTINUE
TO SHALLOW OUT WHILE WARMING CONTINUES ALOFT. THE FRONT WAS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES BY 12Z TUE. DUE TO THE
OVERRUNNING AND WARMING ALOFT...HAVE ADDED FREEZING RAIN TO THE
SNOW FOR AREAS FROM MUSSELSHELL TO KSHR W...EXCLUDING THE
MOUNTAINS.
FRONTOGENESIS AND SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE CAUSED HEAVIER SNOW
OVER THE KBIL AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH A QUICK ACCUMULATION
OF 2 INCHES. RADAR SHOWED THAT THIS AREA OF SNOW HAS SINCE
WEAKENED AND MOVED OFF TO THE SE OF KBIL. DID RAISE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN KBIL TONIGHT DUE TO THIS SNOWBURST. BECAUSE THE
BULK OF THE SNOW WAS PULLING AWAY FROM THE FOOTHILLS...AND WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM THIS AREA THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FOR THE FOOTHILLS. WILL
LEAVE OTHER HEADLINES IN PLACE AND ADD IN FREEZING RAIN AND WIND
CHILL INFORMATION WHERE WARRANTED.
TEMPERATURES WERE TRICKY THIS EVENING WITH SOME AREAS SHOWING
STEADY OR RISING TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/MOUNTAINS AS THE FRONT
PREPARES TO SHIFT E. LOWERED SOME MINS TO THEIR EARLY EVENING
LOWS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY STEADY OR POSSIBLY CLIMB FROM
KBIL W OVERNIGHT.
AFTER THE FRONT SHIFTS E OVERNIGHT...MODELS SHOWED IT OSCILLATING
WESTWARD AGAIN DURING TUE. ADDED THE FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO
THE FORECAST FOR THE SAME AREAS FOR TUE MORNING...AFTER WHICH TIME
THE COLD AIR SHOULD DEEPEN AGAIN RESULTING IN ALL SNOW. MODELS
STILL SHOWED PRECIPITATION DISSIPATING TUE NIGHT. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
WE HAVE MADE SOME RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST
ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON....AS THE MAIN AXIS OF SNOWFALL DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS LOOKS TO BE A BIT NORTHEAST OF EARLIER EXPECTATIONS.
WE BELIEVE THAT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL BETWEEN 5 PM MST /00 UTC/ THIS
EVENING AND 5 AM /12 UTC/ WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE 3 TO LOCALLY 6
INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM ROUNDUP
TO HYSHAM...FORSYTH AND COLSTRIP.
AS OF 22 UTC...STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 6 MB/
3 HOURS ARE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MT WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 45 MPH COMMON...CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WE FIND
IT INTERESTING THAT IN SPITE OF THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LOCALLY
AT BILLINGS A FEW HOURS AGO...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY SLOWLY FALLING
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S F. THIS MAY BE REFLECTIVE OF A SOMEWHAT
SHALLOW WESTERN EDGE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WOULD CONFIRM THE
IDEA HELD IN THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE FOR THE FRONT TO NOT REACH AS FAR
WEST AS THE FOOTHILLS OR LIVINGSTON AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WE SAW
GREAT AGREEMENT IN THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF MODELS FOR THE FRONTAL
ZONE TO STAY OFF THE FOOTHILLS...WITH FORCING THIS EVENING LOCATED
AROUND BILLINGS BEFORE IT ACTUALLY LIFTS BACK NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND
06 UTC. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL THEN FOCUS FROM ROUNDUP OVER
TO HYSHAM...MILES CITY AND BROADUS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
FOR LIGHT SNOW PRODUCTION THERE. THE GUIDANCE THEN AGREES THAT THE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL SLOSH BACK SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SO THAT SNOW
PICKS UP AGAIN IN PLACES LIKE BILLINGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE MORE SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE
ALOFT THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER IS NOT NEARLY AS EFFICIENT ON ITS
WEST SIDE /OVER BILLINGS/ TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS PERHAPS
EARLIER EXPECTED.
SO...TAKING THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS QPF INTO ACCOUNT WITH
A MIX OF COBB AND ROEBBER METHOD SNOW RATIOS YIELDED AN ADDITIONAL
3 TO LOCALLY 6 INCHES OF SNOW...THE LATTER MOST LIKELY AROUND THAT
HYSHAM AREA. THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12 UTC NCEP WRF/S
/ARW AND NMM/ PRODUCE LITTLE MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN PARK COUNTY TO
LIVINGSTON...NYE OR RED LODGE TONIGHT. RECENT RADAR AND WEB CAMERA
IMAGES DO SHOW SOME SNOW AT RED LODGE THOUGH SO WE HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING IN THE FOOTHILLS FOR A WHILE...BUT DROPPED
THE HEADLINES FOR NORTHERN PARK COUNTY AND LIVINGSTON. WE SWITCHED
WARNINGS BACK TO ADVISORIES FOR YELLOWSTONE...MUSSELSHELL AND EVEN
TREASURE COUNTY TOO SINCE THEY WERE MAINLY ISSUED FOR THE SNOWFALL
WHICH COULD HAVE BEEN HEAVIER IN PLACES LIKE BILLINGS TODAY...WITH
A COUPLE INCHES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP WARNINGS
GOING...ESPECIALLY ONCE WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. WE LEFT UP THE
WARNINGS FOR BIG HORN AND SOUTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY FOR NOW BASED ON
RECENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT THE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT SHIFTS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REVERT THEM OVER TO ADVISORIES AT SOME POINT TOO ONCE THIS
AFTERNOON/S SNOW AND WINDS SETTLE DOWN.
WE NEED TO STRESS THAT THERE ARE STILL NUANCES TO WORK OUT IN THIS
SITUATION AND SO ADDITIONAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY IN THE
NEXT FEW FORECAST SHIFTS. FOR EXAMPLE...AFTERNOON HRRR SIMULATIONS
SHOW SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THREAT NEAR
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RETREATING ARCTIC FRONT LATE TONIGHT WHICH
WOULD INCLUDE THE BILLINGS AREA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
US TO INCLUDE THAT IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BEAR MONITORING.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE SNOW MACHINE WILL HAVE SHUT DOWN AND WE WILL BE
IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN TO WARM UP SOMEWHAT...ALBEIT REGULATED BY A
RELATIVELY DEEP SNOW PACK IN MANY AREAS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
EXTENDED MODELS OVERALL ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. AN
UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. THE
RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
RESULTING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED FOR
QUITE A FEW DAYS NOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR TO SLOWLY RETREAT.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY RESULTING IN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...BOTH
DISTURBANCES ARE NOT NEARLY AS STRONG NOR DYNAMIC AND MOISTURE
LADEN HAS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
MODELS SHOW THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WOBBLING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY RESULTING IN LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OUR
EASTERN AND WESTERN LOCATIONS. MODELS THEN SHOW THE ARCTIC PULLING
OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A
GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT NOT NEARLY AS
COLD AS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF SNOW AND LOW CIGS WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCALIZED LIFR. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED NEAR KLVM
THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS NEAR AND EAST OF KBIL AT
03Z...BUT THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TO
INCLUDE KMLS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY OBSCURED. EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT KLVM TO SHIFT BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS BY 06-08Z. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 012/017 002/026 020/025 000/013 008/021 012/026 011/026
+7/S 71/E 02/J 21/B 22/J 21/B 11/B
LVM 023/039 011/044 026/034 011/028 021/036 021/035 019/032
72/S 21/N 01/B 22/J 22/J 21/B 11/B
HDN 010/017 002/025 016/026 905/016 004/022 004/025 005/025
+9/S 71/E 02/J 11/B 22/J 21/B 11/U
MLS 904/010 911/018 012/018 910/009 905/013 903/021 000/021
59/S 41/E 12/J 11/B 21/B 11/B 10/B
4BQ 006/014 902/024 017/024 905/011 004/020 003/021 005/023
78/S 51/E 02/J 11/B 11/B 11/B 10/U
BHK 908/008 914/014 010/018 909/004 904/012 902/016 000/020
16/S 20/B 12/J 10/B 11/B 11/B 10/B
SHR 011/027 005/031 022/031 901/019 012/029 010/028 010/027
96/S 61/B 02/J 12/J 12/J 21/B 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR ZONES 28>37-39-41-42.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 38-57-58-63-67-68.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 98.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
835 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
WARM FRONT ALOFT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE WEST HELPING MIX THE WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
SFC...BFF AND IBM IN THE PANHANDLE ARE IN THE 40S. MEANWHILE FURTHER
EAST THE SNOWPACK AND LOWER LEVELS OF MOST OF THE CWA RESULTING IN
LESS MIXING AND TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT
SNOW TO N CENTRAL MOST OF THE DAY HAS DRIFTED EAST WITH MOST REPORTS
NOW ONLY SEEING FLURRIES IF ANYTHING. A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IS
CROSSING THE BLACK HILLS...ALTHOUGH THE TEMP THERE WAS ABOVE
FREEZING /AS WAS THE TEMPS OF THE LOWER LEVELS/ SO PRECIP WAS LIQUID
EARLIER. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO PUSH SE ACROSS WESTERN S
DAKOTA AND RAP HAS COOLED OFF WITH THE 21Z OB HAVING CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
ANOTHER COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FIRST OFF IS EVENING TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA IN POSITIVE C TERRITORY...HOWEVER MIXING IS LIMITED DO TO
CLOUDS...SNOW PACK...AND JANUARY SUN ANGLE. A COLD FRONT IS
BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
OVERNIGHT. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
AND ARE GUSTY. THIS GUSTINESS ALONG THE FRONT MAY ACTUALLY HELP
CAUSE A BUMP IN TEMPS. WITH SUCH WARM 850 MB TEMPS...THE MIXING MAY
CAUSE TEMPS TO SURGE BRIEFLY INTO THE 30S. THIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN CWA...MORE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO
THE SE. A FEW RADAR RETURNS ACROSS SW SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN NEB. THE WARM LOWER LEVEL IS ALSO DRY AND EXPECT LITTLE
MOISTURE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. THAT SAID...CAN NOT RULE OUT A
FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES THIS EVENING. THE NW FLOW AROUND THE HILLS
CONVERGES NEAR PINE RIDGE AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW THERE AS
WELL. AGAIN SOME CONCERN FOR THE DRY LOWER LEVELS LIMITING ANYTHING
REACHING THE GROUND AND POPS ARE LOW.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DO FINALLY DROP AFTER THE FRONT IS SOUTH OF
THE AREA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS LINGER AS A BLANKET AND LIMIT COOLING.
LOWS GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE
TEENS.
TOMORROW ARRIVES THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE FAST MOVING NW FLOW
REGIME. NORTHERN NEBRASKA HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. LIFT IS
MARGINAL IN THE NARROW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND SHOULD COMBINE
WITH THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO LESS THAN
AN INCH DURING THE DAYTIME. HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEB...ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL.
WARMER IN THE SW...MID 20S TO NEAR FREEZING...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
OPTIMISTIC DUE TO THE SNOW PACK.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
THE NEXT AIR MASS WILL MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THE TEMPERATURE OF THE AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE 5-15F
COLDER IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THAN IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ARE LOCATED WHERE THE
STRONGEST WIND IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...WIND CHILLS OF -20F TO -25F
APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR -30F FOR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA NEAR THE NIOBRARA.
ANOTHER FORECAST ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT. WITH THE AIR MASS SO STRONG...THE SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT
IS LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN THE 280-300K LAYER WITH THE BEST LIFT
IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A CROSS SECTION OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL
CIRCULATION THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL-SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INDICATES THAT
THE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LOT OF ENHANCEMENT FROM
FRONTOGENESIS OR INSTABILITY. WITH THE LOW PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
INDICATED IN THE MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND WE WILL KEEP
THE PROBABILITY FAIRLY LOW.
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...HIGHER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
A FRONT SAGS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS GOES
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. IN FACT...WITH ARCTIC AIR
MASSES GOING THROUGH EVERY TWO DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WIDELY
FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT. AS THE FRONTS GO THROUGH...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION BUT THE CHANCES...IF ANY...WILL BE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 822 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
AT KVTN...LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 05Z. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. AT KLBF...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST AFTER 07Z BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND
BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
950 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AROUND
THE REST OF THE REGION WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SPOTTY FLURRIES.
A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. EVEN COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS...BLUSTERY
WINDS AND A POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
945 AM UPDATE...
DROPPED LES WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE LES BAND REMAINS ACRS NW
PART OF ONEIDA COUNTY AND WILL CONT LES WARNING NRN ONEIDA UNTIL
1 AM. THIS BAND WILL MOVE N OF ONEIDA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR
CONTS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDL ON THE BAND. THE LL FLOW CONTS TO
SLOWLY BACK MORE W-SW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND WAS
THE REASON FOR THE MOVEMENT OF THIS BAND. THIS WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SEE 345 PM UPDATE FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THIS.
645 PM UPDATE...
DROPPED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR ONONDAGA AND MADISON
COUNTIES AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY BACKS MORE WRLY IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LWR LAKE REGION. RADAR TRENDS ALSO SHOW THAT THIS BAND WAS
HEADING NORTHWARD. THE HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
PROGRESSION AND USED ITS REFLECTIVITY FIELDS AS A STARTING POINT
FOR MY HOURLY POPS. THESE HRRR FORECASTS WERE CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT JUST HASTEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN NC NY BY A FEW HOURS. FOR ONEIDA COUNTY
KEPT SRN 2/3 IN LES WARNING WHICH IS DUE TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM AND
THE NRN 1/3 EXPIRES BY 1 AM. THESE ENDING TIMES MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND CONT TO WATCH PROGRESSION
OF LES BANDS. I CAN SEE AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE INCHES IN SRN ONEIDA
AND MAYBE 3-5 INCHES ADDITIONAL IN NW ONEIDA CO. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SCT CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT FROM WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT
WAVE. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON TUESDAY/S
LIGHT SNOW EVENT.
300 PM UPDATE...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TARGETING OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY STATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STILL TOO
FAR SOUTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE BAND...WHICH IS A TYPICAL BIAS.
EXCEPT...THIS TIME THEY WERE VERY MUCH IN ERROR. THE CANADIAN LAM
AND GEM SEEMED TO DO THE BEST AND WERE LEANED ON. THE WESTERN HALF
OF ONEIDA COUNTY WILL SEE THE MOST TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WITH 1-2
FEET EXPECTED. ALREADY HAD REPORTS EARLIER TODAY RANGING FROM
10-14 INCHES WITH ANOTHER 6-12 TO COME TONIGHT. THE EXTREME NRN
BORDER OF ONONDAGA AND MADISON WILL ALSO FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE
LAKE SNOWS...BUT AREAS SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY MAY ONLY SEE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
LAKE BAND LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA/NRN GTLKS. THIS WILL BRING A VERY SHORT
REPRIEVE FROM THE LAKE SNOW...BEFORE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WORKS
IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
BLUSTERY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
300 PM...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE
MID- ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY...WITH A BIT OF A FURTHER SOUTH TREND
TO THE SNOW SHIELD THAN EARLIER RUNS. UPPER TROF AND WARM ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD STILL BRING LIGHT SNOW EVERYWHERE
IN CNY/NEPA. THIS LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THOSE HIGH PROBABILITY EVENTS
WITH LOW QPF...SO WILL STILL HIT IT WITH CAT POPS AND CALL IT PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW TO ILLUSTRATE THE MINIMAL IMPACT AND ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. WITH DENDRITE ZONE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
ONLY WEAK LIFT EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT ZONE...ACCUMS RIGHT NOW ARE ON
THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR SO.
THE BIGGER STORY THIS PERIOD IS THE IMPENDING ARCTIC FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AND RESULTING COLD SNAP THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
PATTERN HAS ALL THE MARKINGS OF A SNOW SQUALL EVENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT EITHER...LIFTS AN EXISTING LAKE BAND OFF
LAKE ONTARIO AND DRIVES IT SOUTHWARD...OR TAPS INTO
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE PRIOR TO THE FROPA. MODEL SOUNDING
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND THE BTV SNOW SQUALL TOOL IS JUST AS IMPRESSIVE. WILL
INTRODUCE THIS SNOW SQUALL HAZARD INTO OUR HAZ WX OUTLOOK PRODUCT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO TRAVEL AS A RESULT OF QUICK
HITTING SNOWS AND POOR VSBYS.
SOME LAKE RESPONSE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT
ATMOSPHERE DOES BECOME SYNOPTICALLY MOISTURE STARVED AND COLDER
THAN THE DENDRITE PRODUCTION ZONE...SO ACCUMS MAY BE LIMITED.
BLUSTERY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR WILL NATURALLY COMBINE FOR
PROBLEMATIC WIND CHILLS...AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST VALUES DO
SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA WITH READINGS COLDER THAN 15 BELOW. A MARGINAL WIND
CHILL WARNING EXISTS FOR OUR NATURALLY COLDER EASTERN ZONES BY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...JUST ANOTHER ADDITION TO THE HAZ WX
OUTLOOK PRODUCT BUT FCST TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
WATCHES...WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.
TEMPS COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND FOLLOWED A
MULTI-MODEL BLEND ON TEMPS/DWPTS/WIND AND SKY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.
LOWERED THU NGT MIN TEMPS SINCE THU MAX TEMPS COLDER. ENTIRE
PERIOD COLDER THAN AVERAGE WITH LAKE EFFECT AND A CLIPPER FRIDAY
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND BETTER LAKE EFFECT
WILL STAY IN THE NORTHERN THREE COUNTIES INCLUDING SYR AND RME.
QUESTIONS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT CLIPPER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY SO FOR NOW HAVE A GENERIC 20 POP FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LFTG NWRD THRU RME ATTM. XPCT A CPL HRS OF
IFR AT RME FLWD BY VFR. ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME SCT LGT SNOW SHWRS
OFF THE TAIL END OF THE ERIE BAND AT THE NY STATIONS. VFR CONDS
WILL CONT INTO EARLY TUE WHEN A SHRT WV MVG THRU THE OH VLY BRINGS
WIDESPREAD MAINLY LGT SNOW TO THE REGION. MVFR CONDS SHD PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE SNOW WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF OCNL IFR CONDS
BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFT 18Z WITH A RETURN TO GNRL
VFR AND SCT SNOW SHWRS IN CAA BHD THE WV...THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT/WED...LAKE EFFECT -SHSN BRINGING RESTRICTIONS TO NY
TERMINALS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
THU...MAINLY VFR BUT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE KSYR-RME IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THU NGT/FRI/SAT...ANOTHER CLIPPER BRINGING RESTRICTIONS IN -SHSN
THU NGT WITH LAKE EFFECT -SHSN OVR NY TERMINALS FRI/SAT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
656 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO
TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AROUND THE
REST OF THE REGION WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SPOTTY FLURRIES THIS EVENING.
A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM ZIPS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. EVEN COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS...BLUSTERY
WINDS AND A POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...
DROPPED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES
AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY BACKS MORE WRLY IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT
WAVE THAT WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LWR LAKE
REGION. RADAR TRENDS ALSO SHOW THAT THIS BAND WAS HEADING NORTHWARD.
THE HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS PROGRESSION AND USED ITS
REFLECTIVITY FIELDS AS A STARTING POINT FOR MY HOURLY POPS. THESE
HRRR FORECASTS WERE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT JUST HASTEN
THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN NC NY BY A
FEW HOURS. FOR ONEIDA COUNTY KEPT SRN 2/3 IN LES WARNING WHICH IS
DUE TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM AND THE NRN 1/3 EXPIRES BY 1 AM. THESE
ENDING TIMES MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW
AND CONT TO WATCH PROGRESSION OF LES BANDS. I CAN SEE AN ADDITIONAL
COUPLE INCHES IN SRN ONEIDA AND MAYBE 3-5 INCHES ADDITIONAL IN NW
ONEIDA CO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SCT CLOUDS AND A
FEW FLURRIES THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT FROM WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORT WAVE. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS ON TUESDAY/S LIGHT SNOW EVENT.
300 PM UPDATE...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TARGETING OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY STATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STILL TOO
FAR SOUTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE BAND...WHICH IS A TYPICAL BIAS.
EXCEPT...THIS TIME THEY WERE VERY MUCH IN ERROR. THE CANADIAN LAM
AND GEM SEEMED TO DO THE BEST AND WERE LEANED ON. THE WESTERN HALF
OF ONEIDA COUNTY WILL SEE THE MOST TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WITH 1-2
FEET EXPECTED. ALREADY HAD REPORTS EARLIER TODAY RANGING FROM
10-14 INCHES WITH ANOTHER 6-12 TO COME TONIGHT. THE EXTREME NRN
BORDER OF ONONDAGA AND MADISON WILL ALSO FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE
LAKE SNOWS...BUT AREAS SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY MAY ONLY SEE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
LAKE BAND LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA/NRN GTLKS. THIS WILL BRING A VERY SHORT
REPRIEVE FROM THE LAKE SNOW...BEFORE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WORKS
IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
BLUSTERY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
300 PM...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE
MID- ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY...WITH A BIT OF A FURTHER SOUTH TREND
TO THE SNOW SHIELD THAN EARLIER RUNS. UPPER TROF AND WARM ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD STILL BRING LIGHT SNOW EVERYWHERE
IN CNY/NEPA. THIS LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THOSE HIGH PROBABILITY EVENTS
WITH LOW QPF...SO WILL STILL HIT IT WITH CAT POPS AND CALL IT PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW TO ILLUSTRATE THE MINIMAL IMPACT AND ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. WITH DENDRITE ZONE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
ONLY WEAK LIFT EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT ZONE...ACCUMS RIGHT NOW ARE ON
THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR SO.
THE BIGGER STORY THIS PERIOD IS THE IMPENDING ARCTIC FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AND RESULTING COLD SNAP THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
PATTERN HAS ALL THE MARKINGS OF A SNOW SQUALL EVENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT EITHER...LIFTS AN EXISTING LAKE BAND OFF
LAKE ONTARIO AND DRIVES IT SOUTHWARD...OR TAPS INTO
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE PRIOR TO THE FROPA. MODEL SOUNDING
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND THE BTV SNOW SQUALL TOOL IS JUST AS IMPRESSIVE. WILL
INTRODUCE THIS SNOW SQUALL HAZARD INTO OUR HAZ WX OUTLOOK PRODUCT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO TRAVEL AS A RESULT OF QUICK
HITTING SNOWS AND POOR VSBYS.
SOME LAKE RESPONSE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT
ATMOSPHERE DOES BECOME SYNOPTICALLY MOISTURE STARVED AND COLDER
THAN THE DENDRITE PRODUCTION ZONE...SO ACCUMS MAY BE LIMITED.
BLUSTERY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR WILL NATURALLY COMBINE FOR
PROBLEMATIC WIND CHILLS...AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST VALUES DO
SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA WITH READINGS COLDER THAN 15 BELOW. A MARGINAL WIND
CHILL WARNING EXISTS FOR OUR NATURALLY COLDER EASTERN ZONES BY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...JUST ANOTHER ADDITION TO THE HAZ WX
OUTLOOK PRODUCT BUT FCST TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
WATCHES...WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.
TEMPS COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND FOLLOWED A
MULTI-MODEL BLEND ON TEMPS/DWPTS/WIND AND SKY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.
LOWERED THU NGT MIN TEMPS SINCE THU MAX TEMPS COLDER. ENTIRE
PERIOD COLDER THAN AVERAGE WITH LAKE EFFECT AND A CLIPPER FRIDAY
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND BETTER LAKE EFFECT
WILL STAY IN THE NORTHERN THREE COUNTIES INCLUDING SYR AND RME.
QUESTIONS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT CLIPPER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY SO FOR NOW HAVE A GENERIC 20 POP FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LFTG NWRD THRU RME ATTM. XPCT A CPL HRS OF
IFR AT RME FLWD BY VFR. ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME SCT LGT SNOW SHWRS
OFF THE TAIL END OF THE ERIE BAND AT THE NY STATIONS. VFR CONDS
WILL CONT INTO EARLY TUE WHEN A SHRT WV MVG THRU THE OH VLY BRINGS
WIDESPREAD MAINLY LGT SNOW TO THE REGION. MVFR CONDS SHD PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE SNOW WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF OCNL IFR CONDS
BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFT 18Z WITH A RETURN TO GNRL
VFR AND SCT SNOW SHWRS IN CAA BHD THE WV...THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT/WED...LAKE EFFECT -SHSN BRINGING RESTRICTIONS TO NY
TERMINALS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
THU...MAINLY VFR BUT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE KSYR-RME IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THU NGT/FRI/SAT...ANOTHER CLIPPER BRINGING RESTRICTIONS IN -SHSN
THU NGT WITH LAKE EFFECT -SHSN OVR NY TERMINALS FRI/SAT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ037.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1255 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUN...LATE MORNING UPDATE ADJUSTED MAINLY TO CAPTURE
PRECIP TRENDS. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS PUSHED EAST OF HWY 17. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO SEEN
ACROSS MAINLAND DARE AND MAINLAND HYDE COUNTIES AND WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOWING SHOWERS WEAKENING AS THEY CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...MOVES INTO
EASTERN NC MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL THREAT OF SVR DUE TO
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR...BUT LAPSE RATES WEAK AND CLOUD
COVER AND SCT SHRA COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY AS WELL. DID
INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN MENTIONED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH MAIN FRONTAL BAND PCPN. TEMPS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S LATE
THIS MORNING AND WILL NOT TAKE MUCH INSOLATION TO REACH MID TO UPR
70S FOR MAX TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS SOME AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MARGINAL THREAT OF
ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST WITH FRONTAL PCPN BAND MOVING ACROSS DURING
EVENING HOURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE OFF COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT. LOWS FROM
MID 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM SAT...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC AIR MASS AND
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
FOR MONDAY...SPRAWLING HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION/OHIO VALLEY WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO NEAR
CLIMO...LOW/MID 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. LOWS
DROP BACK TO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST TO NEAR FREEZING BEACHES.
ON TUESDAY...FLOW QUICKLY BACKS SOUTH THEN SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO
NEXT DIGGING STRONG SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST. LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWING EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...MOS GUIDE
BOTH SUGGESTING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...HIGHEST
SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP BNDRY LAYER SLIGHTLY MIXED. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40.
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO ARRIVE WED INTO THUR.
MED/LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP
ARCTIC TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON TUE NIGHT THEN
TRANSLATING TO THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THUR. TRICKY
TEMP FORECAST ON WED...AS HIGHS MAY BE REALIZED IN THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE STRONG CAA ENSUES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS
DROPPING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN WED NIGHT WITH WINDS
STAYING ELEVATED IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH FCST LOWS IN THE MID/UPR TEENS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALS WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT RANGE ABOVE
ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE HWO.
THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...NAMELY DARE
COUNTY...AS LOW LEVEL NON SHEARED FLOW WILL VEER TO NNW TO ALMOST
TRUE NORTH BY LATE WED NIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS FLOWING OVER WARM
SOUND AND OCEAN WATERS COULD PRODUCE SOME `SOUND OR OCEAN EFFECT`
SNOW SHOWERS WED NIGHT THROUGH THUR. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE TRIVIAL
AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR DARE
COUNTY.
THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
FREEZING OR JUST BELOW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS GRADIENT
BEGINS TO RELAX...THOUGH STILL EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE TEENS WITH ARCTIC HIGH TRANSLATING OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH VERY LITTLE WIND AND WIND CHILL VALS SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS SHOULD
REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL PER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THEREFORE HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NEXT PRECIP CHANCE COULD ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THOUGH STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RETURN
FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MARCH
EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL
TO THE WEST. GIVEN THIS...EXPECT VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CEILINGS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS THE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS STILL ACROSS CENTRAL
NC/SC. THIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...LIFT
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE LOOKS TO WANE A BIT BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES.
SO...THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ANTICIPATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER. THE FRONT WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE
NW...ALTHOUGH STILL ELEVATED. VFR CEILINGS BY AROUND MID-NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL START TO GUST FROM THE NW BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM SUN...DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN ON MONDAY WITH SKIES
QUICKLY BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. VFR MONDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW. SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS AHEAD
OF NEXT FRONT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NW WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED ON WED NIGHT WITH DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN AND
LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WINDS AND
SEAS AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING S-SW WINDS
INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THEN WINDS
SHIFTING TO NW OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS EXPECTED TO
PEAK AT 7-10 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM SUN...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SCA SHOULD END ON MONDAY.
SW TO W FLOW INCREASES ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG WAVE MOVES BY TO THE
NORTH AND PRODUCES A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS LATE TUE. WINDS
MAY DIMINISH A BIT WED BUT QUICKLY STRENGTHEN WITH PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE STRONG
SCA RANGE AND COULD SEE A PERIOD OF GALES WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THUR AS MOST MODELS INDICATING WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 KT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY THUR AFTERNOON AND THEN VEER NE FRI AS ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRES PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING IN THE NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON WILL CONTINUE. THE
NEUSE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT MINOR FLOOD LEVELS THROUGH MID
WEEK. SEE THE LATEST FLSMHX FOR DETAILS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY JANUARY 4 2015. BELOW IS
A LIST OF ASOS/AWOS/COOP STATIONS AND THE YEAR OF THEIR RECORD HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY.
VALUE LOCATION YEAR
===== ======== ====
78 NEW BERN 2004
78 GREENVILLE 2000
75 KINSTON 7SE 2000
75 CAPE HATTERAS 1972
75 MOREHEAD CITY1950
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...JBM/TL
HYDROLOGY...JBM
CLIMATE...SEK/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1051 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUN...LATE MORNING UPDATE ADJUSTED MAINLY TO CAPTURE
PRECIP TRENDS. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS PUSHED EAST OF HWY 17. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO SEEN
ACROSS MAINLAND DARE AND MAINLAND HYDE COUNTIES AND WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOWING SHOWERS WEAKENING AS THEY CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...MOVES INTO
EASTERN NC MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL THREAT OF SVR DUE TO
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR...BUT LAPSE RATES WEAK AND CLOUD
COVER AND SCT SHRA COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY AS WELL. DID
INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN MENTIONED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH MAIN FRONTAL BAND PCPN. TEMPS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S LATE
THIS MORNING AND WILL NOT TAKE MUCH INSOLATION TO REACH MID TO UPR
70S FOR MAX TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS SOME AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MARGINAL THREAT OF
ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST WITH FRONTAL PCPN BAND MOVING ACROSS DURING
EVENING HOURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE OFF COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT. LOWS FROM
MID 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM SAT...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC AIR MASS AND
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
FOR MONDAY...SPRAWLING HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION/OHIO VALLEY WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO NEAR
CLIMO...LOW/MID 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. LOWS
DROP BACK TO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST TO NEAR FREEZING BEACHES.
ON TUESDAY...FLOW QUICKLY BACKS SOUTH THEN SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO
NEXT DIGGING STRONG SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST. LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWING EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...MOS GUIDE
BOTH SUGGESTING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...HIGHEST
SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP BNDRY LAYER SLIGHTLY MIXED. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40.
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO ARRIVE WED INTO THUR.
MED/LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP
ARCTIC TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON TUE NIGHT THEN
TRANSLATING TO THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THUR. TRICKY
TEMP FORECAST ON WED...AS HIGHS MAY BE REALIZED IN THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE STRONG CAA ENSUES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS
DROPPING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN WED NIGHT WITH WINDS
STAYING ELEVATED IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH FCST LOWS IN THE MID/UPR TEENS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALS WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT RANGE ABOVE
ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE HWO.
THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...NAMELY DARE
COUNTY...AS LOW LEVEL NON SHEARED FLOW WILL VEER TO NNW TO ALMOST
TRUE NORTH BY LATE WED NIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS FLOWING OVER WARM
SOUND AND OCEAN WATERS COULD PRODUCE SOME `SOUND OR OCEAN EFFECT`
SNOW SHOWERS WED NIGHT THROUGH THUR. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE TRIVIAL
AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR DARE
COUNTY.
THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
FREEZING OR JUST BELOW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS GRADIENT
BEGINS TO RELAX...THOUGH STILL EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE TEENS WITH ARCTIC HIGH TRANSLATING OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH VERY LITTLE WIND AND WIND CHILL VALS SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS SHOULD
REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL PER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THEREFORE HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NEXT PRECIP CHANCE COULD ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THOUGH STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RETURN
FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA HAS PUSHED EAST OF
TAF SITES. EXPECT ISOL-SCT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A
MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WDSPRD BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING JUST
AHEAD OF FRONT BRINGING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO W-NW AND SKIES
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KT TODAY...AND
ISOLD SVR WIND GUST PSBL WITH ISOLD TSTMS MAINLY LATE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM SUN...DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN ON MONDAY WITH SKIES
QUICKLY BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. VFR MONDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW. SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS AHEAD
OF NEXT FRONT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NW WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED ON WED NIGHT WITH DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN AND
LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WINDS AND
SEAS AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING S-SW WINDS
INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THEN WINDS
SHIFTING TO NW OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS EXPECTED TO
PEAK AT 7-10 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM SUN...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SCA SHOULD END ON MONDAY.
SW TO W FLOW INCREASES ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG WAVE MOVES BY TO THE
NORTH AND PRODUCES A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS LATE TUE. WINDS
MAY DIMINISH A BIT WED BUT QUICKLY STRENGTHEN WITH PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE STRONG
SCA RANGE AND COULD SEE A PERIOD OF GALES WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THUR AS MOST MODELS INDICATING WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 KT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY THUR AFTERNOON AND THEN VEER NE FRI AS ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRES PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING IN THE NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON WILL CONTINUE. THE
NEUSE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT MINOR FLOOD LEVELS THROUGH MID
WEEK. SEE THE LATEST FLSMHX FOR DETAILS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY JANUARY 4 2015. BELOW IS
A LIST OF ASOS/AWOS/COOP STATIONS AND THE YEAR OF THEIR RECORD HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY.
VALUE LOCATION YEAR
===== ======== ====
78 NEW BERN 2004
78 GREENVILLE 2000
75 KINSTON 7SE 2000
75 CAPE HATTERAS 1972
75 MOREHEAD CITY1950
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...SEK/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...SEK/JBM/TL
MARINE...SEK/JBM/TL
HYDROLOGY...JBM
CLIMATE...SEK/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
740 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM SUN...UPDATED FOR INCREASED POPS ACROSS MOST OF AREA
THIS MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS BECOME WDSPRD WITH
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATING STRONGER WIND GUSTS PSBL WITH
HEAVIER ACTIVITY. LATEST HRRR HAS GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT ACTIVITY
AND UPDATED BASED ON IT WITH WDSPRD BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD TSTM MOVING
NE ACROSS AREA THIS MORNING. MODEL INDICATES ACTIVITY WLL BECOME SCT
NEAR COAST THIS AFTN...THEN ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM W
WITH FRONT TOWARD EVENING.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INLAND AND N OF AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH ALL AREAS NOW AFFECTED BY WARM SRLY WINDS WHICH HAS
PUSHED TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO 60S ALL AREASS...AND EVEN SOME LOW 70S
SRN SECTIONS. COLD FRONT STILL APPROACHING THE MTNS FROM OH AND TN
VLYS BUT PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED WITH
SRLY INFLUX AND SPREADING FROM ERN SC INTO COASTAL PLAINS...AND
LATEST MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MORNING.
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND W OF HWY 17 BASED ON THIS WITH
SHC/SCT POP WORDING E OF HWY 17. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST TREND OF
INCREASING POPS DURING AFTN AS MAIN FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES FROM W
AND SCT ACTIVITY CONTINUES E. MARGINAL THREAT OF SVR DUE TO STRONG
WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR...BUT LAPSE RATES WEAK AND CLOUD COVER AND SCT
SHRA COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY AS WELL. DID INCLUDE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN MENTION LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH MAIN
FRONTAL BAND PCPN WORDING.
WITH TEMPS ALREADY INTO MID 60S TO LOW 70S OVER AREA...WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH INSOLATION TO REACH MID TO UPR 70S FOR MAX TEMPS...WHICH WILL
BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS SOME AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MARGINAL THREAT OF
ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST WITH FRONTAL PCPN BAND MOVING ACROSS DURING
EVENING HOURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE OFF COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT. LOWS FROM
MID 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM SAT...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC AIR MASS AND
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
FOR MONDAY...SPRAWLING HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION/OHIO VALLEY WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO NEAR
CLIMO...LOW/MID 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. LOWS
DROP BACK TO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST TO NEAR FREEZING BEACHES.
ON TUESDAY...FLOW QUICKLY BACKS SOUTH THEN SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO
NEXT DIGGING STRONG SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST. LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWING EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...MOS GUIDE
BOTH SUGGESTING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...HIGHEST
SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP BNDRY LAYER SLIGHTLY MIXED. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40.
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO ARRIVE WED INTO THUR.
MED/LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP
ARCTIC TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON TUE NIGHT THEN
TRANSLATING TO THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THUR. TRICKY
TEMP FORECAST ON WED...AS HIGHS MAY BE REALIZED IN THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE STRONG CAA ENSUES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS
DROPPING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN WED NIGHT WITH WINDS
STAYING ELEVATED IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH FCST LOWS IN THE MID/UPR TEENS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALS WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT RANGE ABOVE
ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE HWO.
THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...NAMELY DARE
COUNTY...AS LOW LEVEL NON SHEARED FLOW WILL VEER TO NNW TO ALMOST
TRUE NORTH BY LATE WED NIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS FLOWING OVER WARM
SOUND AND OCEAN WATERS COULD PRODUCE SOME `SOUND OR OCEAN EFFECT`
SNOW SHOWERS WED NIGHT THROUGH THUR. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE TRIVIAL
AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR DARE
COUNTY.
THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
FREEZING OR JUST BELOW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS GRADIENT
BEGINS TO RELAX...THOUGH STILL EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE TEENS WITH ARCTIC HIGH TRANSLATING OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH VERY LITTLE WIND AND WIND CHILL VALS SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS SHOULD
REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL PER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THEREFORE HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NEXT PRECIP CHANCE COULD ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THOUGH STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RETURN
FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS TAF
SITES THROUGH 15Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVED TO MVFR CIGS/VFR VSBYS ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT
LIFTED N...AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MORNING. SCT
SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS PSBL THROUGH THE DAY IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR...WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR THIS AFTN. ANOTHER WDSPRD BAND OF
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF FRONT WITH MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS. FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO W-NW AND SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 25 KT TODAY...AND ISOLD SVR WIND GUST PSBL WITH ISOLD TSTMS
MAINLY LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM SUN...DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN ON MONDAY WITH SKIES
QUICKLY BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. VFR MONDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW. SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS AHEAD
OF NEXT FRONT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NW WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED ON WED NIGHT WITH DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN AND
LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...ADJUSTED POPS/WX WORDING PER NEAR TERM
DISCUSSION...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED N AND GUSTY SRLY WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER ALL THE WATERS...AND SCA ON TRACK. ALLOWED
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVSY TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM...BUT ISSUED MWS TO HANDLE
PESKY LINGERING AREAS OF FOG OVER ALB SOUND AND ALLIGATOR
RVR...EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 8 AM.
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WINDS AND SEAS AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING S-SW WINDS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THEN WINDS SHIFTING TO NW OVERNIGHT WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 7-10 FT THIS
EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM SUN...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SCA SHOULD END ON MONDAY.
SW TO W FLOW INCREASES ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG WAVE MOVES BY TO THE
NORTH AND PRODUCES A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS LATE TUE. WINDS
MAY DIMINISH A BIT WED BUT QUICKLY STRENGTHEN WITH PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE STRONG
SCA RANGE AND COULD SEE A PERIOD OF GALES WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THUR AS MOST MODELS INDICATING WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 KT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY THUR AFTERNOON AND THEN VEER NE FRI AS ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRES PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING IN THE NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON WILL CONTINUE. THE
NEUSE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT MINOR FLOOD LEVELS THROUGH MID
WEEK. SEE THE LATEST FLSMHX FOR DETAILS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY JANUARY 4 2015. BELOW IS
A LIST OF ASOS/AWOS/COOP STATIONS AND THE YEAR OF THEIR RECORD HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY.
VALUE LOCATION YEAR
===== ======== ====
78 NEW BERN 2004
78 GREENVILLE 2000
78 BAYBORO 3E 1972
75 KINSTON 7SE 2000
75 WILLIAMSTON 2000
75 CAPE HATTERAS 1972
70 MANTEO AP 2005
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL
HYDROLOGY...JBM
CLIMATE...TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1259 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
FLURRIES IN ITS WAKE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
MONDAY EVENING. FAST CLIPPER TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC BLAST
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. FOCUSING ON BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY
WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ENHANCED POPS A BIT WITH THE SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT OUT TO
THE W. FCST OTHERWISE LARGELY ON TRACK.
PREV DISCN...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS IT
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN PLUME OF RAINFALL
GOOD FOR ABOUT AN INCH GIVE OR TAKE OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD EXITS FIRST
THING THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ACCOMPANY AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE
FRONT ITSELF...STILL IN WRN OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING AND W OF THE
FCST AREA AT DAWN.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON W TO E. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH PRESSURE
RISE OF 8 MB/6 HRS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SUGGEST GOOD MIXING
AND MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. USED RUC MOMENTUM ALGORITHM TO ARRIVE AT
GUSTS TO 30 KTS HILLTOPS DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY AND
CONTINUING SEVERAL HOURS AFTER...WITH UP TO 40 KTS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THESE GUSTS MAY PERSIST THERE MUCH OF THE NT TONIGHT.
THESE VALUES FALL SHY OF ADV CRITERIA THOUGH.
AFTER A DRY SLOT LATER TODAY...UPSLOPE SHOW SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE
OVER THE HIGHER WINDWARD TERRAIN TONIGHT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CRASH
TO -10C OR LOWER OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ICE CRYSTALS. AM A
LITTLE UNDER WWD WITH UP TO AN INCH OVER THE HIGHER WINDWARD
TERRAIN. MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
AXIS CROSSES THIS EVENING...ALSO GIVING RISE TO CRYSTAL GROWTH AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS EVEN OUT ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE STRATOCU PERSISTS BENEATH
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.
BLENDED IN MAINLY NAM BASED HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN THE STRONG COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS OCCUR EARLY TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER REGION-WIDE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING....AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...WITH THE NAM
LIMITING ANY MEASURABLE TO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS. THE
GFS/ECMWF AND HPC 6-HR PRECIPITATION FORECAST SUGGESTS THE EDGE OF
THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TWEAKED
THE POPS AND QPF GRIDS TOWARDS THE SOLUTION OF THE GFS/ECMWF/HPC.
AS A RESULT...HAVE LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TWO
TIER OF COUNTIES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE LOW...COLDER AIR AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF UPSLOPE SNOW TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES CONTINUING.
MET/MAV GUIDANCE IS QUITE CLOSE FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WAS
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE IN OUR GRIDS...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES. MEX GUIDANCE IS ALSO CLOSE TO OUR GRIDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...SO ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT END OF THE EXTENDED DEALS WITH THE TAIL END OF THE CLIPPER
TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM...UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE LEE OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. OF INTEREST IS THE ECMWF THAT HAS THE HIGH
REACHING 1060MB OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA IN SOUTH DAKOTA.
THAT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER GREAT LAKES CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS AT THIS POINT.
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO HIT 20F AND LOWS BELOW 0F POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR...BUT WIND STAYS UP...SO
RADIATIONAL COOLING NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING FURTHER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MOUNTAINS BY 22Z. BIG FEATURE THIS PERIOD IS
THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT VFR CEILINGS AND
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH. FRONT BRINGS GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY
WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER ON RIDGETOPS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE BEFORE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGS WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS BACK INTO THE AREA BY 00Z. FOR TONIGHT...GENERAL MVFR
WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES LOW LANDS AND MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS
MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH BUT HIGHER
ON RIDGETOPS.
FOR MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH SLOWLY
DIMINISHING WINDS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST...VFR WEST OF A CKB-CRW LINE BY 18Z. BUT CONTINUED MVFR /IFR
MOUNTAINS IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF LOWER CIGS AND WIND GUSTS WILL VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L M M H H M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1043 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
FLURRIES IN ITS WAKE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
MONDAY EVENING. FAST CLIPPER TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC BLAST
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. FOCUSING ON BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY
WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ENHANCED POPS A BIT WITH THE SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT OUT TO
THE W. FCST OTHERWISE LARGELY ON TRACK.
PREV DISCN...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS IT
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN PLUME OF RAINFALL
GOOD FOR ABOUT AN INCH GIVE OR TAKE OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD EXITS FIRST
THING THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ACCOMPANY AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE
FRONT ITSELF...STILL IN WRN OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING AND W OF THE
FCST AREA AT DAWN.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON W TO E. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH PRESSURE
RISE OF 8 MB/6 HRS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SUGGEST GOOD MIXING
AND MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. USED RUC MOMENTUM ALGORITHM TO ARRIVE AT
GUSTS TO 30 KTS HILLTOPS DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY AND
CONTINUING SEVERAL HOURS AFTER...WITH UP TO 40 KTS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THESE GUSTS MAY PERSIST THERE MUCH OF THE NT TONIGHT.
THESE VALUES FALL SHY OF ADV CRITERIA THOUGH.
AFTER A DRY SLOT LATER TODAY...UPSLOPE SHOW SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE
OVER THE HIGHER WINDWARD TERRAIN TONIGHT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CRASH
TO -10C OR LOWER OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ICE CRYSTALS. AM A
LITTLE UNDER WWD WITH UP TO AN INCH OVER THE HIGHER WINDWARD
TERRAIN. MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
AXIS CROSSES THIS EVENING...ALSO GIVING RISE TO CRYSTAL GROWTH AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS EVEN OUT ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE STRATOCU PERSISTS BENEATH
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.
BLENDED IN MAINLY NAM BASED HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN THE STRONG COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS OCCUR EARLY TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER REGION-WIDE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING....AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...WITH THE NAM
LIMITING ANY MEASURABLE TO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS. THE
GFS/ECMWF AND HPC 6-HR PRECIPITATION FORECAST SUGGESTS THE EDGE OF
THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TWEAKED
THE POPS AND QPF GRIDS TOWARDS THE SOLUTION OF THE GFS/ECMWF/HPC.
AS A RESULT...HAVE LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TWO
TIER OF COUNTIES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE LOW...COLDER AIR AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF UPSLOPE SNOW TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES CONTINUING.
MET/MAV GUIDANCE IS QUITE CLOSE FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WAS
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE IN OUR GRIDS...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES. MEX GUIDANCE IS ALSO CLOSE TO OUR GRIDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...SO ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT END OF THE EXTENDED DEALS WITH THE TAIL END OF THE CLIPPER
TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM...UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE LEE OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. OF INTEREST IS THE ECMWF THAT HAS THE HIGH
REACHING 1060MB OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA IN SOUTH DAKOTA.
THAT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER GREAT LAKES CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS AT THIS POINT.
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO HIT 20F AND LOWS BELOW 0F POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR...BUT WIND STAYS UP...SO
RADIATIONAL COOLING NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING FURTHER.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
16Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
VFR CEILINGS. FRONT BRINGS GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE BEFORE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGS MVFR CEILINGS
BACK INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...GENERAL MVFR
WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES LOW LANDS AND MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS
MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY RIDGETOPS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF LOWER CIGS AND WIND GUSTS WILL VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...TRM/JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
530 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS FLURRIES IN
ITS WAKE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY EVENING.
FAST CLIPPER TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC BLAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ENHANCED POPS A BIT WITH THE SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT OUT TO
THE W. FCST OTHERWISE LARGELY ON TRACK.
PREV DISCN...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS IT
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN PLUME OF RAINFALL
GOOD FOR ABOUT AN INCH GIVE OR TAKE OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD EXITS FIRST
THING THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ACCOMPANY AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE
FRONT ITSELF...STILL IN WRN OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING AND W OF THE
FCST AREA AT DAWN.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON W TO E. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH PRESSURE
RISE OF 8 MB/6 HRS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SUGGEST GOOD MIXING
AND MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. USED RUC MOMENTUM ALGORITHM TO ARRIVE AT
GUSTS TO 30 KTS HILLTOPS DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY AND
CONTINUING SEVERAL HOURS AFTER...WITH UP TO 40 KTS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THESE GUSTS MAY PERSIST THERE MUCH OF THE NT TONIGHT.
THESE VALUES FALL SHY OF ADV CRITERIA THOUGH.
AFTER A DRY SLOT LATER TODAY...UPSLOPE SHOW SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE
OVER THE HIGHER WINDWARD TERRAIN TONIGHT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CRASH
TO -10C OR LOWER OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ICE CRYSTALS. AM A
LITTLE UNDER WWD WITH UP TO AN INCH OVER THE HIGHER WINDWARD
TERRAIN. MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
AXIS CROSSES THIS EVENING...ALSO GIVING RISE TO CRYSTAL GROWTH AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS EVEN OUT ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE STRATOCU PERSISTS BENEATH
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.
BLENDED IN MAINLY NAM BASED HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN THE STRONG COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS OCCUR EARLY TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER REGION-WIDE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING....AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...WITH THE NAM
LIMITING ANY MEASURABLE TO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS. THE
GFS/ECMWF AND HPC 6-HR PRECIPITATION FORECAST SUGGESTS THE EDGE OF
THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TWEAKED
THE POPS AND QPF GRIDS TOWARDS THE SOLUTION OF THE GFS/ECMWF/HPC.
AS A RESULT...HAVE LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TWO
TIER OF COUNTIES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE LOW...COLDER AIR AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF UPSLOPE SNOW TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES CONTINUING.
MET/MAV GUIDANCE IS QUITE CLOSE FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WAS
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE IN OUR GRIDS...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES. MEX GUIDANCE IS ALSO CLOSE TO OUR GRIDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...SO ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT END OF THE EXTENDED DEALS WITH THE TAIL END OF THE CLIPPER
TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM...UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE LEE OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. OF INTEREST IS THE ECMWF THAT HAS THE HIGH
REACHING 1060MB OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA IN SOUTH DAKOTA.
THAT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER GREAT LAKES CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS AT THIS POINT.
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO HIT 20F AND LOWS BELOW 0F POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR...BUT WIND STAYS UP...SO
RADIATIONAL COOLING NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING FURTHER.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS.
CONDITIONS MANAGED TO STAY MAINLY VFR IN THE RAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE
GUSTY S FLOW. EXPECT IT WILL TAKE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ITS ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO MANIFEST MVFR STRATOCU LATER THIS
MORNING.
OTHERWISE SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT TODAY SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH
OTHER THAN WIND GUSTS. AFTER A DRY SLOT THIS AFTERNOON...RAIN
SHOWERS WILL FORM AGAIN LATE TODAY AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT. THEY WILL BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND
DIMINISH THERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WITH MVFR OR WORSE VSBY POSSIBLE
AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AT EKN.
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE TENDED TO VARY FROM SE TO SW AND HAVE
BEEN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY. BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO W TO SW...AND QUICKLY BECOME GUSTY IN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT...HAVE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS CODED UP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY RIGHT
WITH THE FRONT...AND THEN FOR A SHORT TIME AROUND SUNSET THIS
EVENING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL BE GUSTY COME MON MORNING. STRONG SW FLOW
ALOFT TODAY WILL BECOME MODERATE W BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF LOWER CIGS AND WIND GUSTS WILL VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
338 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS FLURRIES IN
ITS WAKE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY EVENING.
FAST CLIPPER TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC BLAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS IT
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN PLUME OF RAINFALL
GOOD FOR ABOUT AN INCH GIVE OR TAKE OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD EXITS FIRST
THING THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ACCOMPANY AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE
FRONT ITSELF...STILL IN WRN OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING AND W OF THE
FCST AREA AT DAWN.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON W TO E. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH PRESSURE
RISE OF 8 MB/6 HRS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SUGGEST GOOD MIXING
AND MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. USED RUC MOMENTUM ALGORITHM TO ARRIVE AT
GUSTS TO 30 KTS HILLTOPS DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY AND
CONTINUING SEVERAL HOURS AFTER...WITH UP TO 40 KTS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THESE GUSTS MAY PERSIST THERE MUCH OF THE NT TONIGHT.
THESE VALUES FALL SHY OF ADV CRITERIA THOUGH.
AFTER A DRY SLOT LATER TODAY...UPSLOPE SHOW SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE
OVER THE HIGHER WINDWARD TERRAIN TONIGHT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CRASH
TO -10C OR LOWER OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ICE CRYSTALS. AM A
LITTLE UNDER WWD WITH UP TO AN INCH OVER THE HIGHER WINDWARD
TERRAIN. MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
AXIS CROSSES THIS EVENING...ALSO GIVING RISE TO CRYSTAL GROWTH AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS EVEN OUT ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE STRATOCU PERSISTS BENEATH
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.
BLENDED IN MAINLY NAM BASED HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN THE STRONG COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS OCCUR EARLY TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER REGION-WIDE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING....AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...WITH THE NAM
LIMITING ANY MEASURABLE TO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS. THE
GFS/ECMWF AND HPC 6-HR PRECIPITATION FORECAST SUGGESTS THE EDGE OF
THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TWEAKED
THE POPS AND QPF GRIDS TOWARDS THE SOLUTION OF THE GFS/ECMWF/HPC.
AS A RESULT...HAVE LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TWO
TIER OF COUNTIES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE LOW...COLDER AIR AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF UPSLOPE SNOW TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES CONTINUING.
MET/MAV GUIDANCE IS QUITE CLOSE FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WAS
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE IN OUR GRIDS...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES. MEX GUIDANCE IS ALSO CLOSE TO OUR GRIDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...SO ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT END OF THE EXTENDED DEALS WITH THE TAIL END OF THE CLIPPER
TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM...UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE LEE OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. OF INTEREST IS THE ECMWF THAT HAS THE HIGH
REACHING 1060MB OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA IN SOUTH DAKOTA.
THAT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER GREAT LAKES CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS AT THIS POINT.
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO HIT 20F AND LOWS BELOW 0F POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR...BUT WIND STAYS UP...SO
RADIATIONAL COOLING NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING FURTHER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN
SPINS NEWD INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY SUN NT. THIS WHIPS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING 14Z HTS TO 18-19Z IN THE
MOUNTAINS EKN BKW.
RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL BRING CIGS AND VSBYS TO
MVFR WITH IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER RAIN. THIS RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FROM SW TO NE BY 15Z SUN...BUT ONE MORE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PASSAGE.
DRIER AIR ON GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPROVE VSBYS TO VFR MOST OF THE
BALANCE OF THE PERIOD BUT MVFR STRATOCU WILL PERSIST. SNOW SHOWERS
MAY BRING VSBYS BACK DOWN TO MVFR IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE SUN
NT.
GUSTY S SFC FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY FROM THE SW BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUN NT.
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO 60 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TOWARD DAWN SUN NEAR LLJ MAX TIME...AND THEN BECOME MODERATE TO
STRONG W BEHIND THE FRONT SUN AND SUN NT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF LOWER CIG/VIS IN PRECIPITATION COULD
VARY. WIND GUSTS WILL VARY ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 01/04/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M H M L M H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M L M L M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M L H M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M L L M M H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L M L M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L M M L L L L L L H M
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1221 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST AND
CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ON MONDAY. A CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH TEMPS THE MAIN CHALLENGE. READINGS
HAVE CLIMBED IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR BUT REMAIN IN
THE MID 30S OVER NW OHIO. TEMPS PROBABLY WILL REMAIN ABOUT WHERE
THEY ARE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND HAVE TRIED TO WORD THE NEW
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. THE LASTEST HRRR AND RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW
ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF
THIS SHOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z
850MB TEMPS STILL POSITIVE ACROSS OHIO BUT BY 18Z -4C LINE GETS TO
KCLE WITH -6C AT KTOL. BEST WRAP AROUND MOISTURE GETS INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON POST DRY SLOT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN BOOST TO LIKELY WEST
HALF FOR THE AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING THE LIKELY POPS TO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA FOR THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SNOW AND WILL
HAVE LESS THAN AN INCH. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WITH ABOUT 3 INCHES OR SO FOR
ACCUMS. MONDAY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE AIRMASS DRYS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL HAVE DRY BUT UNPLEASANTLY
COLD CONDITIONS FOR MOST THE AREA. EXCEPTION BEING THE SNOWBELT.
WITH THE FORECAST KERI SOUNDING SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
THE LAKE AM EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
INVERSION IS NOT VERY HIGH AT AROUND 5KFT BUT SNOW GROWTH TEMPS
ARE FAVORABLY POSITIONED WITHIN THE UPDRAFTS WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR
OR TURNING OF THE WIND. FOR NOW GIVEN THE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT
ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR TWO BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.
OTHERWISE MONDAY MORNING TEMPS/WINDS MAY REQUIRE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AS APPARENT TEMPS GET TO AROUND 7 BELOW ZERO NWRN OHIO.
NEXT BIG ISSUE WILL BE THE CLIPPER THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEE A GOOD 3 TO 5 INCH ACCUM IF IT
REMAINS ON TRACK. AGAIN TIME WILL TELL BUT FOR NOW DID BRING IN 2
TO 4 INCHES WEST HALF FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS
EAST BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR WILL BE SURGING SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF A MORNING COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. MAY HAVE LITTLE OR NO RISE IN TEMPERATURES IF
THIS TIMING HOLDS. WE ARE TALKING SINGLE DIGIT/LOW TEENS
HIGHS...LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO.
THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST
WEDNESDAY AND LAKE EFFECT FOR THE SNOWBELT GOING INTO AND THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HAVE SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER OHIO AND TN VALLEYS BY THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE COLD AIR
ENCOMPASSING EVERYWHERE EAST OF THE ROCKIES THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION/AIRMASS MODIFICATION LATER IN THE WEEK WILL ONLY BRING
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY UP THROUGH THE UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND TO THE
LOWER 20S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR TOL WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
INTO LAKE ERIE. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MOST OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS
LIFTED WAY FROM THE REGION WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING.
CIGS AND AND VSBY RANGE FROM IFR NEAR TOL AND FDY TO MAINLY MVFR
ELSEWHERE AT THE TAF SITES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT EAST UNTIL ABOUT 12Z TO BE FROM NEAR
CLE TO MFD. AFTER 12Z THE BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY SWEEP EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINING TAF SITES ONCE THE LAST WAVE ON THE FRONT LIFTS TO
THE NORTH. COLD AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION AND IMPROVE CIGS
AND VSBY FOR A WHILE. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR WITH CIGS NEAR 1500 FT.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING AWAY FROM THE LAKE
WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. NEAR LAKE ERIE ESPECIALLY NEAR ERI
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING AND
REDUCE CONDITIONS TO IFR.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR MAY RETURN BRIEFLY
ON MONDAY THEN NON VFR AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY
NON-VFR SHOULD BE LIMITED TO FAR NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING STILL HOLDS FOR SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OR SO. SSW WINDS
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE SW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE LOW CENTER TRACKING FROM NW OHIO INTO
QUEBEC. WIND SPEEDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY TO GALE FORCE WITH AND
AFTER THE FRONTS PASSAGE. WATER LEVELS WILL DROP ON THE WESTERN
BASIN TO NEAR THE CRITICAL MARK AND WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE
NEED FOR A LOW WATER ADVISORY ON SUNDAY. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT MAY REMAIN TIGHT
ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW END WESTERLY GALES ACROSS THE EAST HALF. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY GO INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE GALES.
NEXT INCREASE IN WINDS...AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THOSE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
AS...ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LEZ061-143>149-163>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
922 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ARCTIC COLD
WILL GRIP THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBZERO WIND
CHILLS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS LITTLE MORE THAN SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER THE
AREA. WE SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY AT LEAST INTO THE WEE HOURS OF
TUESDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS ENCROACHING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALBERTA CLIPPER.
DID SOME TWEAKING OF THE QPF/SNOWFALL TOTALS EXPECTED WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM. OUR SOUTHERN TIER SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS FOR MY HIGHER
ELEVATION SWRN COUNTIES TO SEE AMOUNTS AROUND 2-4" ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION. A GENERAL 1-3" IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THE FRINGES OF
THE STRONGEST FORCING...LEAST OVER THE NY BORDER COUNTIES.
ENSEMBLE QPF`S ARE CONSISTENT AROUND .10". THE SNOW WILL BE DRY
AND FLUFFY SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD MAINLY NUISANCE
AMOUNTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST TIMING SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL BE
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK SYSTEM SPEEDS OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. THE EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS A LOT MORE
FAVORABLE THAN THE MORNING COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S NORTH TO SOUTH...SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL.
VERY COLD NW FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR /-20 TO -25C AT 850MB/ OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE WRN
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS. VERY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ENHANCE THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WHICH
SHOULD BE QUITE FLUFFY GIVEN VERY HIGH SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS.
BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNAL WWD WITH SUPPORT FROM THEIR
ROBUST MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLENDED PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL
GUIDANCE HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY IN THE PERENNIAL SNOWBELT REGION IN NW WARREN COUNTY TO
THE WEST OF RT219.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WINDS AND THE CORRESPONDING LAKE EFFECT SHOULD CUT OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TILT
POSITIVELY AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD BRING CLOSER
TO NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AND
WEAKER SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...THOUGH IT HAS
CONSIDERABLY LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT...SO ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY. AS THIS TROUGH LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST THE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT MORE TO THE SW DUE TO A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL IN
FAIR AGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
COLD...THOUGH SLOWLY WARMING. TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB TO NEAR TO
ABOVE FREEZING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH THICKENING HIGH-MID LEVEL
CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE AIRSPACE IN ADVANCE OF FAST MOVG
CLIPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE MID MS VLY.
THE CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING A QUICK-HITTING 6-9HR PERIOD OF SNOW
AND IFR CONDS TO THE REGION DURING THE PREDAWN AND MORNING HOURS
ON TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR SUGGESTS
A SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL TO THE SNOW THAN IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED
IN THE 00Z TAFS. THEREFORE WILL SPEED UP TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SNOW
WITH THE 03Z UPDATE. AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
REINVIGORATE LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WRN 1/3
OF THE AIRSPACE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR LKLY AT JST/BFD.
GUSTY 20-30KT WNW WINDS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE AIRSPACE. THE
COLD NW FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING REDUCED FLYING CONDS
TO THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...MVFR/IFR WITH -SHSN WEST. VFR/MVFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SAT...IMPROVING CONDS WITH -SHSN ENDING N/W.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ004-005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ024-025-033>035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/RXR/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
902 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ARCTIC COLD WILL GRIP THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBZERO WIND CHILLS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS LITTLE MORE THAN SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER THE
AREA. OTHER THAN THE SMALL CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER ALONG THE NY
BORDER...WE SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY AT LEAST INTO THE WEE HOURS OF
TUESDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS ENCROACHING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALBERTA CLIPPER.
DID SOME TWEAKING OF THE QPF/SNOWFALL TOTALS EXPECTED WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM. OUR SOUTHERN TIER SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS FOR MY HIGHER
ELEVATION SWRN COUNTIES TO SEE AMOUNTS AROUND 2-4" ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION. A GENERAL 1-3" IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THE FRINGES OF
THE STRONGEST FORCING.
ENSEMBLE QPF`S ARE CONSISTENT AROUND .10". THE SNOW WILL BE DRY
AND FLUFFY SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD MAINLY NUISANCE
AMOUNTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST TIMING SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL BE
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK SYSTEM SPEEDS OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. THE EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS A LOT MORE
FAVORABLE THAN THE MORNING COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S NORTH TO SOUTH...SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL.
VERY COLD NW FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR /-20 TO -25C AT 850MB/ OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE WRN
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS. VERY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ENHANCE THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WHICH
SHOULD BE QUITE FLUFFY GIVEN VERY HIGH SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS.
BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNAL WWD WITH SUPPORT FROM THEIR
ROBUST MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLENDED PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL
GUIDANCE HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY IN THE PERENNIAL SNOWBELT REGION IN NW WARREN COUNTY TO
THE WEST OF RT219.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WINDS AND THE CORRESPONDING LAKE EFFECT SHOULD CUT OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TILT
POSITIVELY AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD BRING CLOSER
TO NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AND
WEAKER SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...THOUGH IT HAS
CONSIDERABLY LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT...SO ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY. AS THIS TROUGH LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST THE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT MORE TO THE SW DUE TO A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL IN
FAIR AGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
COLD...THOUGH SLOWLY WARMING. TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB TO NEAR TO
ABOVE FREEZING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH THICKENING HIGH-MID LEVEL
CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE AIRSPACE IN ADVANCE OF FAST MOVG
CLIPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE MID MS VLY.
THE CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING A QUICK-HITTING 6-9HR PERIOD OF SNOW
AND IFR CONDS TO THE REGION DURING THE PREDAWN AND MORNING HOURS
ON TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR SUGGESTS
A SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL TO THE SNOW THAN IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED
IN THE 00Z TAFS. THEREFORE WILL SPEED UP TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SNOW
WITH THE 03Z UPDATE. AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
REINVIGORATE LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WRN 1/3
OF THE AIRSPACE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR LKLY AT JST/BFD.
GUSTY 20-30KT WNW WINDS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE AIRSPACE. THE
COLD NW FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING REDUCED FLYING CONDS
TO THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...MVFR/IFR WITH -SHSN WEST. VFR/MVFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SAT...IMPROVING CONDS WITH -SHSN ENDING N/W.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ004-005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ024-025-033>035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/RXR/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
734 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE
VERY MILD BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TREND
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
WILL BRING SOME SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
SETTLES IN FOR MID WEEK. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...
WILL HOLD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVY...WITH MANY OBS ACTUALLY COMING
UP A TINY BIT THESE LAST FEW HRS. MAIN AREA OF RAIN PUSHING TO THE
EAST AND COLD FRONT IS JUST TO OUR N/W. DEWPOINTS NOW CLOSE TO 50F
IN BFD AND JST - BUT FIG STUCK IN THE M30S FOR TEMP/DEW. MADE
TWEAKS FOR THE TEMPS BUT THE REST OF THE FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
PREV...
IN WHAT IS AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR JANUARY...KJST IS EXPERIENCING THE
NICEST WEATHER OF ALL THE OB SITES IN THE AREA. FOG IS GETTING
FAIRLY DENSE ACROSS THE SE...AND MAY NEED AN ADVY SOON AS NO WIND
IS EXPECTED THERE TO HELP IT MIX AWAY BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL PONDER
THIS JUST A LITTLE WHILE LONGER...AS NO OBS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW
1/4SM. RAIN IS AGAIN SPREADING OVER ALL THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. SO FAR...NO THUNDER HAS
HAPPENED AS THE FRONT HAS STARTED TO MAKE WAY THROUGH NRN OH...SO
WILL JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO MYSELF FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...THE RAP AND NAM DO PROG SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY AND
BOUYANCY TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR NW BEFORE SUNRISE...AND THEN AGAIN
OVER THE FAR SE LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH. HOWEVER...IT IS STABLE AND PROGGED TO STAY THAT WAY AT
THE SFC OVER 95PCT OF CENTRAL PA.
TEMPS HARDLY MOVING AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF
32F AIR TEMPS LEFT AT THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA HAS AIR TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. STILL...THE SLUSHY SFC MAY
BE KEEPING THE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING RIGHT AT THE GROUND
LEVEL...AND NOT 2M UP. THUS...UNTREATED ROADS IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES MAY STILL BE SLIPPERY. TEMPS SHOULD RISE AS THE DAY
CONTINUES...WITH MAXES IN THE 50S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
WIND ALOFT CAN MIX DOWN AND BRING THE 10C AIR WITH IT.
COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA STEADILY THRU THE DAY...AND TEMPS
WILL BE DROPPING IN THE AFTN OVER THE NW. THUS...P-TYPE IS LIKELY
TO CHANGE AS THE TEMPS IN THE COLUMN DROP THERE LATER TODAY. WILL
JUST CALL IT A MIX OF RW/SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
8H TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP STEADILY TONIGHT AND MONDAY - REACHING
-22C IN THE FAR N BY MONDAY EVENING. SFC TEMPS SHOULD STAY PRETTY
STEADY OR EVEN FALL ON MONDAY DUE TO THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
THIS WILL BRING THE USUAL AND CUSTOMARY LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS OF 2-3 INCHES OVER
THE 24 HR PERIOD IN THE FAR NW - NOT QUITE WORTH AN ADVY. SFC
PRESSURES RISE INTO THE 1030-PLUS RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS DO GO SRLY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORT WAVE ZIPPING ALONG IN THE FAST W-E FLOW.
THE WAVE WILL BE CLIPPING ALONG WITH FULL SAILS...AND SHOULD START
TO MAKE LIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. THIS SNOW
IS WELL- AGREED UPON BY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE TRACK OF THE MOST
IMPORTANT THING WITH A CLIPPER - THE SFC LOW AND BEST LIFT AND
BEST SNOW BAND WHICH IS ATTENDANT IMMEDIATELY TO IT/S NORTH - IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. BUT MOST MODELS DO BRING A MINOR LOW
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE...A GOOD SPOT FOR IT TO GO FOR
LOCAL SNOW. WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NRN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA...AND LIKELIES IN THE SOUTH. QPF GENERALLY
0.15 TO 0.3 INCHES IN THE PLACES WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED - AND THE
FLUFFINESS OF THE SNOW WHILE 8H TEMPS ARE IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO
C - WILL PROBABLY CAUSE SNOW OF 1-3 IF NOT 2-4 INCHES. BUT THE
TRACK QUESTION KEEPS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AND THE TIME
RANGE ITSELF TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO MAKE AN ADVY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS MID-WEEK AND A DEEP LAYER OF
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR SHOULD MARCH INTO THE REGION. 850MB
TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN THE -20C TO -30C RANGE. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR SFC HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TO BE 20 DEGREES OR GREATER
BELOW NORMAL. COUPLE THIS WITH WINDS THAT WILL BE N TO NE EARLY
ON...THE EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR CAN WORK TO THE SOUTH AND NOT BE
MODIFIED MUCH BY THE LAKES. SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EARLY ON...BUT
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO
THE NW. STILL NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE SAW IN EARLY JANUARY LAST
YEAR. COLDEST AIR REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES WITH SECONDARY
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TILT POSITIVELY AND LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD BRING CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS NEXT
WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT MORE TO THE SW DUE TO A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN HAS BECOME SHOWERY AS LAST PUSH OF PRE FRONTAL PRECIP HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CIG AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS STILL EXIST. WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER EVEN A LITTLE
ICE/SNOW/SLEET ON THE GROUND...WILL LEAD FOR RAPID LOCALIZED FOG
FORMATION WHERE WINDS SLACKEN.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITY...HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE IFR TO LIFR CATEGORY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
A STRONG SSWLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MILDER AIR INTO THE
AREA. THIS 50+KT LLJ WILL ALSO SUPPORT LLWS AT ALL AIRFIELDS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTN FOLLOWED BY
A COLDER AND GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXPECT TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN THE COLD NW UPSLOPE
FLOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY MORE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN TAFS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR/IFR WEST WITH -SHSN. VFR CENTRAL/EAST.
TUE...MVFR/IFR LKLY IN -SN FROM CLIPPER.
WED-THU...MVFR/IFR WITH -SHSN WEST. VFR/MVFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
645 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE
VERY MILD BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TREND
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
WILL BRING SOME SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
SETTLES IN FOR MID WEEK. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...
WILL HOLD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVY...WITH MANY OBS ACTUALLY COMING
UP A TINY BIT THESE LAST FEW HRS. MAIN AREA OF RAIN PUSHING TO THE
EAST AND COLD FRONT IS JUST TO OUR N/W. DEWPOINTS NOW CLOSE TO 50F
IN BFD AND JST - BUT FIG STUCK IN THE M30S FOR TEMP/DEW. MADE
TWEAKS FOR THE TEMPS BUT THE REST OF THE FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
PREV...
IN WHAT IS AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR JANUARY...KJST IS EXPERIENCING THE
NICEST WEATHER OF ALL THE OB SITES IN THE AREA. FOG IS GETTING
FAIRLY DENSE ACROSS THE SE...AND MAY NEED AN ADVY SOON AS NO WIND
IS EXPECTED THERE TO HELP IT MIX AWAY BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL PONDER
THIS JUST A LITTLE WHILE LONGER...AS NO OBS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW
1/4SM. RAIN IS AGAIN SPREADING OVER ALL THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. SO FAR...NO THUNDER HAS
HAPPENED AS THE FRONT HAS STARTED TO MAKE WAY THROUGH NRN OH...SO
WILL JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO MYSELF FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...THE RAP AND NAM DO PROG SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY AND
BOUYANCY TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR NW BEFORE SUNRISE...AND THEN AGAIN
OVER THE FAR SE LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH. HOWEVER...IT IS STABLE AND PROGGED TO STAY THAT WAY AT
THE SFC OVER 95PCT OF CENTRAL PA.
TEMPS HARDLY MOVING AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF
32F AIR TEMPS LEFT AT THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA HAS AIR TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. STILL...THE SLUSHY SFC MAY
BE KEEPING THE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING RIGHT AT THE GROUND
LEVEL...AND NOT 2M UP. THUS...UNTREATED ROADS IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES MAY STILL BE SLIPPERY. TEMPS SHOULD RISE AS THE DAY
CONTINUES...WITH MAXES IN THE 50S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
WIND ALOFT CAN MIX DOWN AND BRING THE 10C AIR WITH IT.
COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA STEADILY THRU THE DAY...AND TEMPS
WILL BE DROPPING IN THE AFTN OVER THE NW. THUS...P-TYPE IS LIKELY
TO CHANGE AS THE TEMPS IN THE COLUMN DROP THERE LATER TODAY. WILL
JUST CALL IT A MIX OF RW/SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
8H TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP STEADILY TONIGHT AND MONDAY - REACHING
-22C IN THE FAR N BY MONDAY EVENING. SFC TEMPS SHOULD STAY PRETTY
STEADY OR EVEN FALL ON MONDAY DUE TO THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
THIS WILL BRING THE USUAL AND CUSTOMARY LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS OF 2-3 INCHES OVER
THE 24 HR PERIOD IN THE FAR NW - NOT QUITE WORTH AN ADVY. SFC
PRESSURES RISE INTO THE 1030-PLUS RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS DO GO SRLY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORT WAVE ZIPPING ALONG IN THE FAST W-E FLOW.
THE WAVE WILL BE CLIPPING ALONG WITH FULL SAILS...AND SHOULD START
TO MAKE LIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. THIS SNOW
IS WELL- AGREED UPON BY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE TRACK OF THE MOST
IMPORTANT THING WITH A CLIPPER - THE SFC LOW AND BEST LIFT AND
BEST SNOW BAND WHICH IS ATTENDANT IMMEDIATELY TO IT/S NORTH - IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. BUT MOST MODELS DO BRING A MINOR LOW
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE...A GOOD SPOT FOR IT TO GO FOR
LOCAL SNOW. WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NRN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA...AND LIKELIES IN THE SOUTH. QPF GENERALLY
0.15 TO 0.3 INCHES IN THE PLACES WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED - AND THE
FLUFFINESS OF THE SNOW WHILE 8H TEMPS ARE IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO
C - WILL PROBABLY CAUSE SNOW OF 1-3 IF NOT 2-4 INCHES. BUT THE
TRACK QUESTION KEEPS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AND THE TIME
RANGE ITSELF TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO MAKE AN ADVY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS MID-WEEK AND A DEEP LAYER OF
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR SHOULD MARCH INTO THE REGION. 850MB
TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN THE -20C TO -30C RANGE. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR SFC HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TO BE 20 DEGREES OR GREATER
BELOW NORMAL. COUPLE THIS WITH WINDS THAT WILL BE N TO NE EARLY
ON...THE EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR CAN WORK TO THE SOUTH AND NOT BE
MODIFIED MUCH BY THE LAKES. SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EARLY ON...BUT
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO
THE NW. STILL NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE SAW IN EARLY JANUARY LAST
YEAR. COLDEST AIR REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES WITH SECONDARY
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TILT POSITIVELY AND LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD BRING CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS NEXT
WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT MORE TO THE SW DUE TO A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME MUCH MORE SHOWERY DURING THE LAST THREE
HOURS...BUT SIGNIFICANT CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS STILL EXIST.
WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER EVEN A LITTLE ICE/SNOW/SLEET ON THE
GROUND...WILL LEAD FOR RAPID LOCALIZED FOG FORMATION WHERE WINDS
SLACKEN.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITY...HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE IFR TO LIFR CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG SSWLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MILDER AIR INTO THE
AREA. THIS 50+KT LLJ WILL ALSO SUPPORT LLWS AT ALL AIRFIELDS
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
A COLDER AND GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXPECT TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN THE COLD NW UPSLOPE
FLOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY MORE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN TAFS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR/IFR WEST WITH -SHSN. VFR CENTRAL/EAST.
TUE...MVFR/IFR LKLY IN -SN FROM CLIPPER.
WED-THU...MVFR/IFR WITH -SHSN WEST. VFR/MVFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...JUNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
920 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH DRYING
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A VERY COLD AND DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED...WITH ARCTIC
AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EST SUNDAY...LINE OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE NC/SC
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. LATEST SBCAPE ANALYSIS VIA SPC MESO AND
LOCAL LAPS INDICATES THE PERSISTENT WEDGE HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY
SUBSTANTIALLY. THAT SAID...STILL A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IN PLACE AS EVIDENT BY LATEST RADAR VELOCITY RETURNS SO CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS. AS FOR THE FCST...MODIFIED POPS BY
MOVING POP TRENDS UP A FEW HOURS DUE TO LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATING
EARLY AFTN CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY. THUS...POPS DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 645 AM...ANOTHER UPDATE TO THE TEMPS/DWPTS...FOLLOWING THE
TRACK OF THE WEDGE FRONT ACRS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
ALSO...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACRS NE GA INTO THE UPSTATE.
THERE IS ABOUT 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACRS THE PIEDMONT AHEAD OF THE
LINE. WITH SUCH STRONG BULK SHEAR...A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY BE ABLE
TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND LLVL ROTATION. I HAVE BUMPED UP THE
THUNDER MENTION TO ABOUT 30%...ROUGHLY ALONG I-85 AND SOUTH. ALL
OTHER TRENDS LOOK ABOUT ON TRACK.
AS OF 415 AM...ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO THE TEMPS TO BETTER MATCH UP
WITH THE OBS...AS A WARM WEDGE FRONT PUSHES NORTH INTO THE CWFA.
TEMP GRADIENT IS PRETTY SHARP...WITH EQY AND GRD AT 63...WHILE
KAND/KCLT ARE AROUND 48. ALSO...I HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADV TO
EXPIRE. NO METARS IN THE CWFA ARE LESS THAN 1/2SM ATTM.
AS OF 330 AM...THE WEDGE FRONT IS MAKING PROGRESS NORTHWARD ACRS
CENTRAL GA AND THE MIDLANDS ATTM. THIS SHUD SCOUR OUT THE DENSE FOG
AS IT PUSHES INTO THE LWR PIEDMONT AND CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. I WILL PLAN TO ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADV TO
EXPIRE AT 4 AM. MEANWHILE...THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE CWFA FROM THE WEST. STILL EXPECT
THIS BAND TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...GETTING TO
THE I-77 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTN. RAIN RATES OF 0.5 TO 1.0" PER HOUR
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD ACRS AL AND NW GA. THE LATEST
FFG GUIDANCE FOR NE GA AND SRN ESCARPMENT IS 1.75-2.50" IN 3
HRS...AND 2.25-3.50" IN 6 HOURS. SO I STILL THINK THE STREAMS CAN
MANAGE THE INCOMING RAIN...WITH AN ISOLD HYDRO/FLOOD THREAT POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ANY SEVERE THREAT AS THE
STRONGLY SHEARED LINE OF CONVECTION CROSSES THE CWFA TODAY. MOST
GUIDANCE STILL ONLY UNCOVERING 200-300 J/KG OF CAPE AT MOST ALONG
THE SE FRINGE OF THE CWFA. AS USUAL...THE NAM HAS MORE CAPE (UP 500
J/KG...WELL TO THE WEST ACRS THE ENTIRE PIEDMONT. THE LATEST DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS THE MARGINAL RISK JUST CLIPPING UNION NC. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE A NON-ZERO WIND THREAT AND TORNADO THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY EARLY ON...AS UNCOVERED WARM SECTOR IS IN THE
MID-UPR 60S...WHILE THE WEDGE IS IN THE MID-UPR 40S. SOME LOCATIONS
SOUTH AND EAST OF I-85 MAY SPIKE INTO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70 BEFORE
THE CONVECTION MOVES THRU.
THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT...GUSTY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE RAIN
SHIELD...THEN THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU AND SHIFT THE WINDS
OUT OF THE NW. FROM THERE THE STRONGER/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN...WITH THE HIGHEST PEAKS LIKELY SEEING 40-50 MPH GUSTS.
FCST SNDGS ALSO SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING WITHIN THE NWLY
FLOW. A FEW SHWRS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER. TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND 30S...WITH A FEW SNOW SHWRS AND/OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE MIXING IN OVERNIGHT. POPS ARE ONLY IN THE 20-30% RANGE...AND
LITTLE TO NO ACCUM IS EXPECTED. TEMPS OUTSIDE THE MTNS SHUD FALL
INTO THE MID-UPR 30S UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A DRY
CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...IN THE WAKE
OF SUNDAY/S COLD FRONT. H85 CAA WILL SLOW DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN BECOME NEUTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CWA
SHOULD SEE SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW...FAVORING
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR 40 WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS
TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...THE AXIS OF A SHALLOW L/W
TROF WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES...WITH A POTENT VORT MAX
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUES. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY SLOWLY ORGANIZE OVER THE DELMARVA.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MIN AND MAX TEMPS ON TUES WILL RANGE VERY
CLOSE TO NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MIXING TO
SUPPORT A MENTION OF MARGINAL WIND GUSTS FROM THE SW DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...A AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL TROF WILL DIG ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE PAC
NW. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A 1050+MB HIGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS ON WED...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REACHING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS ON THURS. STRONG CAA WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY...PEAKING
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AS LOW AS -20C ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. H85
TEMPS WILL SHOULD START TO RECOVER ON THURSDAY WITH LIGHT RETURN
FLOW. WED HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON
THURSDAY...MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS TO LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT....HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THURSDAY
NIGHT...MINS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. TEMPERATURES
COULD BE BELOW FREEZING FOR A SOLID 24 TO 48 HOURS FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE AREA. AN HWO COLD WAVE MENTION WILL CONTINUE. IN
ADDITION...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL SHARPLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS...SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FAIRLY MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP LATE
WEEK...WITH THE ERN TROUGH GETTING REINFORCED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THU NIGHT/FRI ON THE ECMWF...WHILE SHALLOW RIDGING DEVELOPS ON THE
GFS. THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWN BETTER CONTINUITY AND WILL
BE FAVORED. WILL THUS FOLLOW THE IDEA OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING
IN THE NW FLOW...WITH ANY ATTENDANT SHALLOW MOISTURE STAYING N OF
THE REGION LATE WEEK. THE COLD AIR WILL GET SLIGHTLY REINFORCED FRI
THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER TO THE N OF
THE REGION. HEIGHTS SHOULD THEN FINALLY BEGIN RISING UNDER A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH DIVING REDEVELOPING
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE PLAINS. ANY RETURN FLOW MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...AS WE
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF SOLUTION ON THIS TIMING. THIS SHOULD
KEEP CAD FROM FORMING UNTIL JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...BOTH THE BAND OF SHRA TO THE WEST...AND THE
WEDGE FRONT TO THE SOUTH HAVE STALLED EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIP SHIELD SHUD START TO MAKE A PUSH ACRS THE
PIEDMONT WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
IMPROVING SLIGHTLY. AS THE LINE MOVES ACRS...WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF
MVFR AND IFR CIGS/VSBY. THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDER WITHIN THE LINE OF
SHRA NEAR KAND AND KCLT TODAY. HAVE A VCTS AT KAND...AND A TEMPO AT
KCLT. THERE IS ALSO SOME LLWS NORTH OF THE WEDGE FRONT...WHERE SFC
WINDS HAVE FAVORED A NW DIRECTION...WHILE A SW WIND OF 25-35 KTS
EXISTS AROUND 1500-2000 FT. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LLWS IN THE
PIEDMONT SITES UNTIL THE SFC WINDS START TO MIX OUT OF THE SOUTH.
LATER TODAY...CONDITIONS SHUD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE AFTN. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LINE OF SHRA...THEN
SHIFT TO NW AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING. AT KAVL...CHANNELED
VALLEY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NW FLOW MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF COLD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL DROP OUT
OF CANADA...AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACRS THE REGION THRU THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-12Z
KCLT MED 69% HIGH 89% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 75% HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 68% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 70%
KHKY MED 79% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 95% HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 84% HIGH 87% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
DRY ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
MEAN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BECOME EXTREMELY DRY. MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL
BE LIKELY FOR WED AND THU....AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MAY SET
UP AS WELL. FIRE DANGER COULD BE HEIGHTENED IF FINE FUELS DRY OUT
SUFFICIENTLY FOLLOW THE WEEKEND RAIN. THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN THE HWO...OR A FIRE WX
WATCH...AT SOME POINT.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK
FIRE WEATHER...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
944 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DROP WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE
AREA AS FORCING AND ATTENDANT SNOW HAS QUICKLY SHIFTED SOUTHEAST.
HAVE ALSO ADDED WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF BLOWING
SNOW TO THE GRIDS.
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS WIND CHILLS FALL TO 35 TO 40 BELOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AS A BROAD AREA
OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING OVER
ALL BUT FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSIFYING 700 MB FRONT AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING ENHANCED
RETURNS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA...ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL WITH WHERE MODEL PROGGED
FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO BE STRONGEST. EXPECT ENHANCEMENT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SLIDES
THROUGH OUR AREA. THE RAP DOES INDICATE SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY
ABOVE THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION FOR LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A NARROWER BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW THROUGH NORTHWESTERN IOWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR CURRENT
SNOWFALL GRIDS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THE RANGE OF
15 TO 25:1 IN A DEEPER DENDRITIC LAYER COULD RESULT IN HOURLY
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH TO 1 1/2 INCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FORCING BEGINS TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING. FORECASTED SNOWFALL
TOTALS STILL LOOKING AT JUST EITHER SIDE OF 6 INCHES ORIENTED FROM
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR THEN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA...TRENDING UPWARD TO AROUND 7 INCHES IN PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. BLOWING SNOW SHOULD ONLY BE A RELATIVELY MINOR
ISSUE WITH WINDS STAYING IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY END BY
MID EVENING AS FRONTAL FORCING WEAKENS AND THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST. IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. DO BEGIN TO SEE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET LATER TONIGHT...BUT ELECTED TO HOLD
OFF ON THAT UNTIL CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE.
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AS
THE NEXT CANADIAN WAVE BEGINS TO DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH. MOST OF
THE INCREASE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...AND
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES THERE WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC LIFT FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
SKIES WILL CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG AND THE
ARCTIC RESURGENCE POURS INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE WINTER SO FAR. WINDS BRINGING THIS SURGE WILL BE STRONG TO
CAUSE SOME BLOWING OF THE STILL FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL MENTION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE.
SKIES WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY CLEAR. HOWEVER THE BIG NEWS WILL BE
THE WIND CHILLS DIVING TO WARNING LEVELS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
EXCEPT TO ONLY ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
AREA. AFTER COORDINATION AND LOCAL INPUT...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ON THESE HIGHLIGHTS UNTIL THE CURRENT WARNING AND ADVISORY TONE
DOWN. HOWEVER...THOUGH IT WAS ALREADY BEEN COLD OF COURSE...THIS
IS GOING TO BE THE COLDEST SHOT OF THE WINTER SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A QUICK TURN TO WARMING...THOUGH IT WILL
GET TO THE SURFACE IN ONLY A VERY LIMITED MEASURE. A BAND OF WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA WITH THIS WARMING AND EXIT
AS THE NEXT COLD AIR SHOT ARRIVES. THE TRANSITORY NATURE OF THE
WARMING LEADS TO A MENTION OF ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL BE NOT AS COLD...MOSTLY TEENS ABOVE ZERO...AS DELAYED
MIXING FROM THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WARMING HELPS TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.
THE ACCOMPANYING COLD AIR REINFORCEMENT WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WIND
CHILL EVENT WITH A COLD DAY FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL THEN SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA WITH RELATIVELY MINOR WAVES AND BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT
AS FRIGID TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WILL
MENTION SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW CENTRAL AND SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH...WHICH SHOULD RULE WITH DRY WEATHER AND
MODESTLY COLD TEMPERATURES AS MENTIONED ABOVE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY EXITING THIS AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
EXISTS FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT OUR MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ZONES WHERE
LOWER END VFR IS THE PREDOMINANT CATEGORY. AT ANY RATE...
OBSERVATIONS AND IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING CLEARING MOVING DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE AM FAVORING VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING THAT WAY
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ038>040-
052>056-059>062-065>067-071.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ050-057-058-
063-064-068>070.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
081-089-090-097-098.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-032.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ031.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
546 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AS A BROAD AREA
OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING OVER
ALL BUT FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSIFYING 700 MB FRONT AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING ENHANCED
RETURNS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA...ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL WITH WHERE MODEL PROGGED
FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO BE STRONGEST. EXPECT ENHANCEMENT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SLIDES
THROUGH OUR AREA. THE RAP DOES INDICATE SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY
ABOVE THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION FOR LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A NARROWER BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW THROUGH NORTHWESTERN IOWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR CURRENT
SNOWFALL GRIDS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THE RANGE OF
15 TO 25:1 IN A DEEPER DENDRITIC LAYER COULD RESULT IN HOURLY
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH TO 1 1/2 INCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FORCING BEGINS TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING. FORECASTED SNOWFALL
TOTALS STILL LOOKING AT JUST EITHER SIDE OF 6 INCHES ORIENTED FROM
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR THEN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA...TRENDING UPWARD TO AROUND 7 INCHES IN PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. BLOWING SNOW SHOULD ONLY BE A RELATIVELY MINOR
ISSUE WITH WINDS STAYING IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY END BY
MID EVENING AS FRONTAL FORCING WEAKENS AND THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST. IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. DO BEGIN TO SEE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET LATER TONIGHT...BUT ELECTED TO HOLD
OFF ON THAT UNTIL CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE.
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AS
THE NEXT CANADIAN WAVE BEGINS TO DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH. MOST OF
THE INCREASE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...AND
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES THERE WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC LIFT FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
SKIES WILL CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG AND THE
ARCTIC RESURGENCE POURS INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE WINTER SO FAR. WINDS BRINGING THIS SURGE WILL BE STRONG TO
CAUSE SOME BLOWING OF THE STILL FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL MENTION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE.
SKIES WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY CLEAR. HOWEVER THE BIG NEWS WILL BE
THE WIND CHILLS DIVING TO WARNING LEVELS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
EXCEPT TO ONLY ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
AREA. AFTER COORDINATION AND LOCAL INPUT...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ON THESE HIGHLIGHTS UNTIL THE CURRENT WARNING AND ADVISORY TONE
DOWN. HOWEVER...THOUGH IT WAS ALREADY BEEN COLD OF COURSE...THIS
IS GOING TO BE THE COLDEST SHOT OF THE WINTER SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A QUICK TURN TO WARMING...THOUGH IT WILL
GET TO THE SURFACE IN ONLY A VERY LIMITED MEASURE. A BAND OF WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA WITH THIS WARMING AND EXIT
AS THE NEXT COLD AIR SHOT ARRIVES. THE TRANSITORY NATURE OF THE
WARMING LEADS TO A MENTION OF ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL BE NOT AS COLD...MOSTLY TEENS ABOVE ZERO...AS DELAYED
MIXING FROM THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WARMING HELPS TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.
THE ACCOMPANYING COLD AIR REINFORCEMENT WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WIND
CHILL EVENT WITH A COLD DAY FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL THEN SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA WITH RELATIVELY MINOR WAVES AND BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT
AS FRIGID TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WILL
MENTION SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW CENTRAL AND SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH...WHICH SHOULD RULE WITH DRY WEATHER AND
MODESTLY COLD TEMPERATURES AS MENTIONED ABOVE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY EXITING THIS AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
EXISTS FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT OUR MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ZONES WHERE
LOWER END VFR IS THE PREDOMINANT CATEGORY. AT ANY RATE...
OBSERVATIONS AND IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING CLEARING MOVING DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE AM FAVORING VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING THAT WAY
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ070-
071.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ039-040-
054>056-061-062-066-067.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR SDZ038>040-052>056-059>062-065>067-071.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR SDZ050-057-058-063-064-068>070.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097-098.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ031.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-032.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-032.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR IAZ031.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ013-
014.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
342 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A
LOT OF DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY THEN SOME FLURRIES AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON MONDAY BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY.
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON INVADING THE
MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. A 1050+ MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO MIDDLE 30S SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE FELT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO
MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...WINDS MAY REMAIN BRISK ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY DURING THIS MID WEEK PERIOD.
HIGHS AGAIN ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH LOWER 20S NORTH
TO NEAR 30 DEGREES SOUTH BUT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY A SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD AND MAY SUPPORT SOME WINTRY TYPE PRECIPITATION.
AT THIS TIME...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS APPEARS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AND THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO DETERMINE SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES AS WE GET CLOSER TO
NEXT WEEKEND.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
MVFR/VFR WAS NOTED ON 05Z METARS OVER AR...AS LOW STRATUS DECK HAD
BROKEN UP IN PLACES. NAM SOUNDINGS AND 00Z HRRR MODEL SHOW IFR
CONTINUING...AND WILL NEED TO WATCH SHORT TERM TRENDS FOR JBR AND
MEM. OTHERWISE...HELD STATUS QUO GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH
EARLIER RUNS. VFR LIKELY TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE BY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
325 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
PRECIP OVER THE AREA AT THE MOMENT IS OCCURRING WELL AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS STILL LOCATED IN WEST TN. THE HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIP...SO IT WILL BE
FOLLOWED FOR SHORT TERM TIMING. IT TAKES MOST OF THE MODERATE PRECIP
EAST OF OUR AREA BY NOON...SO WILL QUICKLY DROP POPS BACK INTO THE
CHANCE RANGE AFTER THAT TIME EVERYWHERE...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
NORTH AND IN THE MTNS THROUGH THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SO FAR THIS
MORNING...WE HAVE NOT OBSERVED WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SO THE CURRENT WIND ADVISROY WILL BE CANCELLED.
THE RAP AND NAM SHOW THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA IN
THE 16-21Z TIME FRAME. OUR HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING
AS TEMPS FALL WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE. IN THE EVENING...LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH THE 850-700 MB TROUGH PASSAGE AND WINDS TURN W-
NW. SW VA AND EAST TN MTNS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
WITH MOISTURE BEING SHALLOW BELOW THE -10C LEVEL...ANY SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE. WILL HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. THE TREND OF DECREASING MOISTURE DEPTH CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT...ENDING ANY REMAINING CHANCE OF PRECIP BY 06Z.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
QUIET WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM...LOW AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND SHOULD TAKE SOME OF THESE
CLOUDS WITH IT AS WELL. BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE
TEMPS, ESPECIALLY BEHIND A FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL BE
FORCED IN ALONG WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD
START TO CALM DOWN BEFORE THE LOWEST TEMPS ARE REACHED OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REACH SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS,
AND EVEN WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, WIND CHILL VALUES COULD STILL
GET BELOW 0 DEGREES. TAKING A QUICK GLANCE BACK AT HISTORIC OBS
REVEALS THAT THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS WINTERS OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DECADES WHERE TEMPS HAVE NOT GOTTEN THIS COLD, IF THE FORECAST
VERIFYS. SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN MOST OF THE
AREA SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 30`S FOR A HIGH TEMP. AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST SOME MODELS WANT TO BRING IN A TROUGH AND SOME PRECIP,
BUT OTHERS WANT TO KEEP US HIGH AND DRY, SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES GO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 30 41 28 / 50 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 27 38 26 / 70 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 57 26 39 28 / 50 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 24 35 22 / 100 20 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/ABM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1148 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES.
ALSO UPDATED THE HWO FOR REMOVAL OF SLIGHT RISK THREAT.
DISCUSSION...
MAIN BAND OF HIGHER INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH HAS CLEARED THE CWA...WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST NOW EXITING
THE MEMPHIS METRO. BELIEVE THE THREAT OF THUNDER...AND SEVERE
THREAT OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DWINDLED
..SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER...AND REMOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE FROM THE HWO.
ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AS BOTH THE FRONT WILL TAKE
ITS TIME EXITING...AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER WELL INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
JAB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S.
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF RAIN HAS LITTLE THUNDER ASSOCIATED
WITH AN RAINFALL IS NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL
CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT 330 PM CST. WILL ALSO REMOVE MENTION
OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE HWO.
THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AS IT DOES
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND START TO BRING INTO COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL NOT BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THEY WILL BE IN THE MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. MONDAY WILL BE SUNNY BUT CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION
ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD MONDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND A LITTLE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AHEAD OF IT SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE AIR BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN THE AIR WE WILL SEE MOVING INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
20S.
AS BRISK NORTH WINDS BLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM UP TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE VERY COLD
AS LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS. IN ADDITIONAL WINDS OF
AROUND 10 MPH WILL PUSH WIND CHILL READINGS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO NEAR ZERO. THURSDAY WILL NOT REMAIN DRY AND CHILLY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 20S.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE SOUTH SO
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE SOME. BY FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 30S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AS THIS DOES MOISTURE WILL START TO
INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BUT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME. BY NEXT SATURDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING
ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
MVFR/VFR WAS NOTED ON 05Z METARS OVER AR...AS LOW STRATUS DECK HAD
BROKEN UP IN PLACES. NAM SOUNDINGS AND 00Z HRRR MODEL SHOW IFR
CONTINUING...AND WILL NEED TO WATCH SHORT TERM TRENDS FOR JBR AND
MEM. OTHERWISE...HELD STATUS QUO GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH
EARLIER RUNS. VFR LIKELY TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE BY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1140 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015
.AVIATION...
LATEST COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED EACH TAF SITE. NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL GUST MODESTLY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WHILE A BAND OF
MOSTLY MVFR CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW THOUGH SHOULD TEND TO FRACTURE AS
IT APPROACHES KLBB SO LESS CLEAR IF A CEILING WILL RESULT AT KLBB.
DRIER AIR BY 2AM TO 3AM SUNDAY SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER EROSION AND
EVENTUAL CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
DROPPING WIND SPEEDS. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TO
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY THOUGH SPEEDS VERY LIGHT SO
DID NOT INDICATE THIS CHANGE YET. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015/
AVIATION...
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD KEEP
SURFACE SATURATION FROM OCCURRING...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
THIS OUT BY 03Z-06Z JUST BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR RUN SHOWS SATURATION DEVELOPING NOT FAR FROM
EITHER KPVW OR KLBB BY THIS TIME SO WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE
ON TRENDS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS THOUGH
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AROUND 05Z-06Z FOR EACH SITE. SOME
POSSIBILITY OF A LOW CLOUD LAYER POST-FRONT AS INDICATED WITH THE
SCT020 LAYER. ONCE AGAIN...WE WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW TRENDS THOUGH
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUPPORT MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS
FRONT WHICH SHOULD FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE VARIETY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WAS FINALLY ACCELERATING AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT DID NOT GO QUIETLY...WITH AN AREA OF
WRAP AROUND SNOW IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL RANGING FROM
A LIGHT DUSTING TO A QUICK 2 INCHES. THE BIGGEST SNOWFALL WINNERS
FOR THE EVENT WERE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES WITH FRIONA
REPORTING A HALF FOOT AND RHEA COMING IN WITH 9 INCHES. THE SNOW HAS
SINCE DIMINISHED AND MOST SPOTS WERE NOW SEEING SOME SUN AND BRISK
WESTERLY WINDS WHICH HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AND ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK. THIS WAS HELPING TO THAW THINGS OUT...THOUGH WAS
ALSO CREATING THE RISK OF FALLING ICE WHERE SIGNIFICANT FREEZING
RAIN OCCURRED YESTERDAY.
ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SEEN A RELATIVE WARM-UP THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO BREAK OUT THE SHORTS AND FLIP FLOPS. INSTEAD...WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PLUNGE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND UNDER DEVELOPING DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTH PLAINS AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DEEPEST SNOWPACK OF OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES MAY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WHILE TEENS WILL BE COMMON
OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AT MANY
LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...WITH A FEW BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST. THAT SAID...IT DOES APPEAR WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
COME UP JUST SHY OF ADVISORY LEVELS...THOUGH IT WILL BE COLD
NONETHELESS. A SHORT-LIVED DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS COULD EVEN FOLLOW
THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST ON
SUNDAY. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP NEAR THE TX/NM LINE
EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BETTER SHOT WILL BE IN EASTERN
NM AND WE HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM. EVEN
SO...THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CHILLY TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE RIDGING DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST AND
EASTERN PACIFIC THEN SLOWLY EDGE EWD WITH TIME. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MODEL PROGS
SHOWING SHARPLY COLDER TEMPS WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT PIECE OF COLD
AIR DROPS SWD INTO THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH
ANOTHER WEAKER BUT STILL COLD PIECE MOVING SWD LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND/OR NRN MEXICO POSSIBLY SPREADING SOME
LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FCST AREA TOWARD SATURDAY. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS TROUGH. WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE
SERN ZONES WILL KEEP A SLIGHT MENTION THERE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 8 28 16 42 24 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 12 28 15 41 22 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 13 29 17 41 24 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 15 32 18 43 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 15 30 19 42 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 18 31 18 41 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 17 30 18 41 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 15 29 17 38 23 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 19 29 17 40 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 21 31 18 45 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
424 AM PST MON JAN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
The north Idaho Panhandle and far northeast Washington will
receive periods of snow through Monday afternoon. The valleys
around Leavenworth and Lake Chelan will likely experience periods
of freezing rain. Wintry precipitation will decrease Monday and
Monday night as warmer air spreads over the Inland Northwest. High
pressure will build over the region Tuesday night into Wednesday
bringing dry conditions and areas of low clouds and fog through
Thursday. The weather for Friday into next weekend looks mild and
unsettled with the potential for light rain or snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update sent to remove winter weather advisories for the Columbia
Basin, and extend the East Slopes and Okanogan Valley. Per latest
surface observations, it is conceivable that freezing rain is
falling in some of the valleys of the East Slopes, particularlynear
Lake Wenatchee and upper reaches of the Methow Valley. Tough to
gauge via cams given the time of day but rain is falling on
Blewett and Stevens Passes while the valleys remain in the 20s.
Light snow has returned to Oroville with roads becoming snow
covered. Not the heavy snow we saw in Idaho Saturday but enough to
complicate travel this morning.
For the Columbia Basin and Wenatchee Area, temperatures remain
cold and below freezing west of Ritzville to Davenport. However,
strong westerly flow is producing quite the rain shadow and even
when precip extends into Wenatchee from time to time...it is a
brief trace so the threat for widespread winter impacts remains
low.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z...A frontal boundary remains draped across northern WA/ID this
morning with a rich feed of subtropical moisture streaming into
the region. Spokane, C`DA, Pullman, and Lewiston have warmed above
freezing and will mainly deal with gusty winds along with rain
and MVFR cigs today. Cooler air remains trapped in the lee of the
Cascades from Moses Lake to Wenatchee and has led to fog and
stratus. Any precip hitting these terminals will be brief and
light but could fall in the form of sleet or freezing rain through
midday. Precip chances are not very high given the Cascade rain
shadow. There is a higher threat for freezing rain in the East
Slopes of the WA Cascades. /sb
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...
Monday through Tuesday: The winter storm will begin winding down
today as warmer air moves into the region and snow levels rise. As
of 2AM...the warm front has stalled from NW Washington to
Missoula, MT. A rich fetch of subtropical moisture continues to be
transported into the region along this boundary with periods of
light to moderate precipitation ongoing across the Cascade Crest,
Idaho Panhandle, and far northern WA. In between...spotty light
precipitation is reaching into the Basin at times.
South of the warm front, the threat for winter weather has ended
for much of southeastern WA and the lower ID Panhandle where snow
levels have risen between 3000-5000 feet. All winter highlights
will be taken down and rain will be the dominate precipitation type
through Monday. North of the warm front, temperatures remain in
the 20s for locations like Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, Colville, and
Republic. Precipitation redeveloping at this hour will remain in
the form of snow with an additional 1-3 inches possible through
morning. Snow will also continue in the Central Panhandle
mountains mainly above 3000 feet but snow levels will also be
rising near or above 5K ft by this afternoon. Models suggest the
strongest isentropic ascent in combination with orographics will
be from the WA Palouse...east into the Central Panhandle Mtns
which could see on the order of another 0.50 - 1.00" of liquid
through this afternoon. This may cause problems for smaller
streams and creeks and we will be closely monitoring Paradise
Creek.
Winds are also cranking in the foothills of the Blue Mtns
which have pushed temperatures at 2AM into the 40s to lower 50s.
Look for the strongest winds this morning then decreasing in the
afternoon and a wind advisory has been issued to address these
local concerns.
Further west, things get a bit more tricky. Cooler air remains
trapped in the lee of the Cascades with below freezing
temperatures from Ritzville to the East Slopes...northward into
the Okanogan Valley. Strong westerly flow is only allowing spotty
precipitation extend pass the Cascade Crest but precip type is a
mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain. HRRR suggest another band
of light precip developing this morning as the last rich slug of
moisture crosses the Cascades so will hold off until we see if
this materializes before cancelling any highlights. A bigger
concern will be in the valleys tucked closer to the Cascade Crest
which will be more susceptible to light or brief moderate precip
and potential for light ice accumulations. The warmer air has
arrived aloft with above freezing temperatures observed to 4000
feet across southern Chelan County and locations like Lake
Wenatchee still in the 20s...ice accumulations are a strong
possibility!
Precipitation trends will migrate northward tonight into Tuesday
and depart the region Tuesday evening. High pressure will build
inland and deliver dry but soggy conditions at the surface with
widespread fog and low clouds. /sb
Wednesday through Saturday: A dry ridge will keep things quiet on
Wednesday and into Thursday. The ridge over the region will shift
to the East and begin to flatten Thursday into Friday. The models
a series of frontal waves will move through the ridge. The first
passing through the region on Friday afternoon. The trends with
the models have been slowly drying out the amount moisture
associated with this front. The precip chances have been decreased
and will mainly impact the Cascades and mountains in the Idaho
Panhandle with Columbia Basin having low chance of receiving a
small amount of snow. A small dry ridge will fill in behind the
front on Saturday decreasing precip chances for the rest of the
period. Temperatures will range low to mid 30s for the highs and
mid to upper 20s for the lows.
Sunday and Monday: The model agreement for this period is very
poor. The forecast leans toward the worse case scenario with
bringing in the next system and delivering another round of
precip to the region. Temperatures will range from the low to mid
30s for the highs and mid to upper 20s for the lows. /JDC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 39 33 35 27 36 28 / 100 30 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 40 33 38 28 37 28 / 100 60 20 10 0 0
Pullman 45 36 43 31 42 33 / 100 20 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 48 38 47 34 47 35 / 80 10 10 0 0 0
Colville 35 32 33 27 32 26 / 80 50 30 10 0 0
Sandpoint 34 32 35 24 29 26 / 100 90 60 10 0 0
Kellogg 35 34 38 28 36 31 / 100 100 50 10 0 0
Moses Lake 42 32 37 31 39 30 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
Wenatchee 42 33 36 33 37 32 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
Omak 34 30 35 30 35 28 / 50 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Central
Panhandle Mountains.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Northern
Panhandle.
WA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Northeast
Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.
Winter Storm Warning until Noon PST today for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley.
Wind Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Lower Garfield
and Asotin Counties.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
909 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
WILL CONVERT THE MARINE WATCHES TO GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNINGS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
MARINE...
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MIDDLE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME GUSTS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 15Z TO 21Z TUESDAY. A GALE WATCH WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 21Z TUESDAY TO 21Z WEDNESDAY.
HIGH WAVES AND FREEZING SPRAY ARE LIKELY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE OPEN WATERS...WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS...SO ALSO ISSUED A
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 21Z TUESDAY TO 21Z WEDNESDAY.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND
HIGH WAVES TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS INTO FRIDAY. THUS...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015/
UPDATE...
NO SURPRISES IN THE 00Z NAM. FORECAST QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK GOOD.
THE HRRR HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON SNOW ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE ALONG
WITH SNOW AMOUNTS.
NO CHANGES IN HEADLINES EXPECTED. HOWEVER EVEN THOUGH SNOW
AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE LIGHTER...THE COLD ROAD
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR VERY SLIPPERY DRIVING.
AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
THE HRRR HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON SNOW ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE ALONG
WITH SNOW AMOUNTS. VSBY FORECAST IS ALSO GOOD. WILL BE USING THAT
FOR THE 06Z TAF WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UP FOR VSBYS.
THE CORE OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD END BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z TUESDAY
AT MADISON...AND AROUND 09Z TUESDAY AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
EXPECTING A TOTAL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE MADISON AREA AND AROUND
2 INCHES IN MILWAUKEE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE PERIOD OF
SNOW.
MODERATE BANDS OF SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT
MADISON AND KENOSHA AND SOUTH. ANY MODERATE SNOW BANDS COULD
BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE. THINK SNOWFALL RATES
WILL GET UP TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR...ESPECIALLY AT
MADISON AND KENOSHA...AND COULD BE A BIT HIGHER AT TIMES. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER SNOW ENDS...AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD CAUSE SOME
DRIFTING SNOW PROBLEMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015/
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QPF
FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
EVENING...THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THERE LATER TONIGHT.
STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM THIS FEATURE DOES CLIP THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLIDING
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. BEST VALUES REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE A 4 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW OF THIS STRONG UPWARD MOTION
PARTIALLY IN THE DEEP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE ACROSS THE
AREA...BEST IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FROM 00Z TO 05Z TUESDAY.
USING SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AROUND 24 TO 1 OR SO...GET A GENERAL 3
TO 5 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A 2 TO
3 INCH TOTAL IN THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.
WALWORTH...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE THE SNOW UNTIL
AROUND 02Z TO 03Z TUESDAY...BUT KEPT 00Z START TIME TO MAINTAIN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH.
SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES BY 08Z TO 09Z
TUESDAY...WITH QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTY WEST
WINDS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOWS MAINLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY OF 8 TO 12 ABOVE ZERO.
SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
COLDEST PERIOD OF THE SEASON...WITH WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL VALUES OF
-20 TO -30 EXPECTED CONTINUOUSLY FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A DRY PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. 925 MB TEMPS DROP FROM -15C/
-16C AT 00Z WED TO -22C/-25C...RIDING IN ON 30-35 KT 925 MB WINDS.
SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TAPPING THESE STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.
THE RESULTING WEST TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH
GUSTS OF 22-28 MPH... WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -5F
TO -10F TO PRODUCE MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES OF -28 TO -32. WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED BY MID-EVENING TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL ACT ON THE FRESH SNOW COVER CAUSING SOME MINOR
DRIFTING OF SNOW. THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD...IT WILL CAUSE SOME TRAVEL
PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY IN RURAL LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO CONTINUE AS THE COLD 925 MB TEMPS
YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DO NOT GET ABOVE THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKE...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY. THIS KEEPS WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO -25 RANGE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
LOOKING LIKE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALLOWING FORMATION OF A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION OVER FRESH SNOW
COVER. THOUGH WINDS LOWER TO 5 TO 10 MPH...TEMPERATURES TUMBLE TO
-10F TO -15F SO WIND CHILL VALUES DROP TO AROUND -30. SOME ISOLATED
-35 SHOWING UP..WHICH IS THE LOW END FOR A WIND CHILL WARNING...BUT
TOO FEW TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL WATCH. BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE NOON HOUR ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
ANOTHER FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY.
SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NE WI CLOSER TO
THE STRONGER MID-LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE TO THE WAVE. WILL TAPER POPS FROM HIGH CHANCE IN THE NE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SW.
NORTHERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE LIGHT SNOW MOVE IN THE MORNING...
WITH THE FOCUS IN SOUTHEAST MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
AND 1/2 INCH OR LESS SOUTHWEST HALF. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE WAVE BRINGS HIGHS OF 8 TO 12 ABOVE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
TEMPERATURES FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE WITH NWLY UPPER FLOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION AS UPPER FLOW BEGINS
TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL W-E ORIENTATION. HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS REGION DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO BUT STILL JUST BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START AT MADISON AROUND 01Z TUESDAY...AND AT
EASTERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 02Z AND 03Z TUESDAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP QUICKLY TO NEAR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WITH THE
ONSET OF THE SNOW.
THE CORE OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD END BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z TUESDAY AT
MADISON...AND AROUND 09Z TUESDAY AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES. EXPECTING
A TOTAL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
DURING THE PERIOD OF SNOW.
MODERATE BANDS OF SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT
MADISON AND KENOSHA. ANY MODERATE SNOW BANDS COULD BRING
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE. THINK SNOWFALL RATES COULD GET
UP TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR...ESPECIALLY AT MADISON AND
KENOSHA...AND COULD BE HIGHER AT TIMES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
SNOW ENDS...AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MIDDLE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME GUSTS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 15Z TO 21Z TUESDAY. A GALE WATCH HAS THEN
BEEN ISSUED FROM 21Z TUESDAY TO 21Z WEDNESDAY.
HIGH WAVES AND FREEZING SPRAY ARE LIKELY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE OPEN WATERS...WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS...SO ALSO ISSUED A
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM 21Z TUESDAY TO 21Z WEDNESDAY.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND
HIGH WAVES TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS INTO FRIDAY. THUS...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ056-062-
063-067>072.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...REM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
833 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
NO SURPRISES IN THE 00Z NAM. FORECAST QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK GOOD.
THE HRRR HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON SNOW ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE ALONG
WITH SNOW AMOUNTS.
NO CHANGES IN HEADLINES EXPECTED. HOWEVER EVEN THOUGH SNOW
AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE LIGHTER...THE COLD ROAD
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR VERY SLIPPERY DRIVING.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
THE HRRR HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON SNOW ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE ALONG
WITH SNOW AMOUNTS. VSBY FORECAST IS ALSO GOOD. WILL BE USING THAT
FOR THE 06Z TAF WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UP FOR VSBYS.
THE CORE OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD END BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z TUESDAY
AT MADISON...AND AROUND 09Z TUESDAY AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
EXPECTING A TOTAL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE MADISON AREA AND AROUND
2 INCHES IN MILWAUKEE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE PERIOD OF
SNOW.
MODERATE BANDS OF SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT
MADISON AND KENOSHA AND SOUTH. ANY MODERATE SNOW BANDS COULD
BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE. THINK SNOWFALL RATES
WILL GET UP TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR...ESPECIALLY AT
MADISON AND KENOSHA...AND COULD BE A BIT HIGHER AT TIMES. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER SNOW ENDS...AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD CAUSE SOME
DRIFTING SNOW PROBLEMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015/
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QPF
FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
EVENING...THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THERE LATER TONIGHT.
STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM THIS FEATURE DOES CLIP THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLIDING
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. BEST VALUES REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE A 4 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW OF THIS STRONG UPWARD MOTION
PARTIALLY IN THE DEEP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE ACROSS THE
AREA...BEST IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FROM 00Z TO 05Z TUESDAY.
USING SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AROUND 24 TO 1 OR SO...GET A GENERAL 3
TO 5 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A 2 TO
3 INCH TOTAL IN THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.
WALWORTH...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE THE SNOW UNTIL
AROUND 02Z TO 03Z TUESDAY...BUT KEPT 00Z START TIME TO MAINTAIN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH.
SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES BY 08Z TO 09Z
TUESDAY...WITH QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTY WEST
WINDS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOWS MAINLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY OF 8 TO 12 ABOVE ZERO.
SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
COLDEST PERIOD OF THE SEASON...WITH WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL VALUES OF
-20 TO -30 EXPECTED CONTINUOUSLY FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A DRY PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. 925 MB TEMPS DROP FROM -15C/
-16C AT 00Z WED TO -22C/-25C...RIDING IN ON 30-35 KT 925 MB WINDS.
SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TAPPING THESE STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.
THE RESULTING WEST TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH
GUSTS OF 22-28 MPH... WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -5F
TO -10F TO PRODUCE MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES OF -28 TO -32. WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED BY MID-EVENING TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL ACT ON THE FRESH SNOW COVER CAUSING SOME MINOR
DRIFTING OF SNOW. THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD...IT WILL CAUSE SOME TRAVEL
PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY IN RURAL LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO CONTINUE AS THE COLD 925 MB TEMPS
YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DO NOT GET ABOVE THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKE...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY. THIS KEEPS WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO -25 RANGE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
LOOKING LIKE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALLOWING FORMATION OF A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION OVER FRESH SNOW
COVER. THOUGH WINDS LOWER TO 5 TO 10 MPH...TEMPERATURES TUMBLE TO
-10F TO -15F SO WIND CHILL VALUES DROP TO AROUND -30. SOME ISOLATED
-35 SHOWING UP..WHICH IS THE LOW END FOR A WIND CHILL WARNING...BUT
TOO FEW TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL WATCH. BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE NOON HOUR ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
ANOTHER FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY.
SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NE WI CLOSER TO
THE STRONGER MID-LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE TO THE WAVE. WILL TAPER POPS FROM HIGH CHANCE IN THE NE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SW.
NORTHERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE LIGHT SNOW MOVE IN THE MORNING...
WITH THE FOCUS IN SOUTHEAST MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
AND 1/2 INCH OR LESS SOUTHWEST HALF. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE WAVE BRINGS HIGHS OF 8 TO 12 ABOVE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
TEMPERATURES FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE WITH NWLY UPPER FLOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION AS UPPER FLOW BEGINS
TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL W-E ORIENTATION. HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS REGION DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO BUT STILL JUST BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START AT MADISON AROUND 01Z TUESDAY...AND AT
EASTERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 02Z AND 03Z TUESDAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP QUICKLY TO NEAR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WITH THE
ONSET OF THE SNOW.
THE CORE OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD END BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z TUESDAY AT
MADISON...AND AROUND 09Z TUESDAY AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES. EXPECTING
A TOTAL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
DURING THE PERIOD OF SNOW.
MODERATE BANDS OF SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT
MADISON AND KENOSHA. ANY MODERATE SNOW BANDS COULD BRING
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE. THINK SNOWFALL RATES COULD GET
UP TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR...ESPECIALLY AT MADISON AND
KENOSHA...AND COULD BE HIGHER AT TIMES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
SNOW ENDS...AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MIDDLE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME GUSTS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 15Z TO 21Z TUESDAY. A GALE WATCH HAS THEN
BEEN ISSUED FROM 21Z TUESDAY TO 21Z WEDNESDAY.
HIGH WAVES AND FREEZING SPRAY ARE LIKELY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE OPEN WATERS...WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS...SO ALSO ISSUED A
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM 21Z TUESDAY TO 21Z WEDNESDAY.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND
HIGH WAVES TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS INTO FRIDAY. THUS...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ056-062-
063-067>072.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LMZ643>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...REM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1140 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
ILLINOIS..AND RIDGES ON BOTH COASTS OF THE U.S.. ALSO OF NOTE WERE A
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN MO AND IL WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS SUPPORTED A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SEE THE LATEST MKEPNSARX FOR UPDATED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE HAS STAYED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WE ARE
FEELING ITS EFFECTS IN THE WIND DEPARTMENT...AS THAT POTENT
SHORTWAVE HAS HELPED TO DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NOW OVER LOWER MI.
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING IN THE 20-40 MPH RANGE...HIGHEST
WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 52. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. 925MB TEMPS PER RAP ANALYSIS HAVE FALLEN TO -5C SOUTHEAST
TO -15C NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...MUCH COLDER -20 TO -24C 925MB AIR WAS
LURKING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN...AND AROUND
-30C UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. READINGS ARE WELL BELOW ZERO UNDER
THIS COLDER AIR.
THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF SNOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST QUICKLY THIS MORNING...IN
RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA MARCHING EAST. MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BY 15Z THE SNOW SHOULD HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OVER WI UNTIL 18Z. THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS DRY AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRY ARCTIC
AIR MOVE IN.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS AS ARCTIC AIR POURS
INTO THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS FALL TO -20 TO -24C
BY 00Z AND -23 TO -27C BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR
COMBINED WITH A 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WIND SPEED TODAY CAUSES WIND
CHILLS TO EVENTUALLY FALL INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA / LESS THAN 20
BELOW ZERO / EVERYWHERE BY SUNSET. FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE
TONIGHT TO PUT TAYLOR AND CLARK INTO WARNING CRITERIA / 35 BELOW
ZERO. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN COULD GET CLOSE TO WARNING AS
WELL.
REGARDING HAZARDS. CONSIDERED WAITING UNTIL 15Z...THE EXPIRATION
TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN 10 COUNTIES...TO
START HOISTING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SEEING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
TODAY...AND ALL NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES ALSO HOISTING
ADVISORIES...HAVE ISSUED THE ADVISORIES NOW. HAVE ALSO UPGRADED THE
WATCH FOR TAYLOR/CLARK TO A WARNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2015
THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION TO START MONDAY MODIFIES QUITE A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY...REFLECTED BY 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO -18 TO -21C
BY 00Z. THIS MODIFICATION ALLOWS OUR WIND CHILLS TO MOSTLY GET ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 18Z...WHICH IS THE END TIME FOR THE HAZARDS.
SOME EXTENSION PAST 18Z COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A FEW AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE IMPROVEMENT IN WIND CHILLS COMES AT THE EXPENSE OF
SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
04.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FAST MOVING POTENT
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...TRACKING FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AT 18Z MONDAY TO EASTERN IOWA BY 06Z TUESDAY. THIS IS A
DISTANCE OF 925 MILES...RESULTING IN A 77 MPH AVERAGE SPEED FOR THE
SHORTWAVE. THE COMBINATION OF DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVE...DIVERGENCE
FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET AND STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS...WILL LEAD TO A BROAD SWATH OF SNOW ON THE ORDER OF
300 MILE WIDTH. CONTAINED WITHIN THAT SWATH WILL BE A SMALLER...
HEAVIER BAND ON THE ORDER OF 100 MILE WIDTH PER MODEL CONSENSUS.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 0.5 INCH AS SUGGESTED
BY THE NAM/GFS AND SOME SREF MEMBERS. WITH A DEEP EFFECTIVE
DENDRITIC GROWTH OF 300MB...THAT COULD RESULT IN 8 TO 12 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL...MUCH OF WHICH FALLING WITHIN IN A 9 HOUR WINDOW. THE
SERIOUS PROBLEM IN FORECASTING THESE HIGH AMOUNTS IS PLACEMENT. THE
BOUNDS SEEMS TO BE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE
04.00Z NAM AND ALONG I-80 PER THE 04.00Z GFS. GIVEN THIS LARGE
PLACEMENT ISSUE...CANNOT FORECAST THE HIGHER AMOUNTS YET.
HOWEVER...THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS VERY MUCH WARRANTED...THOUGH
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM OFF THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE WATCH.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HAVE INCREASED THEM QUITE A BIT
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN FASTER TIMING...ALONG WITH MORE OF A
DECREASE FOR OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS BACK TO THE ARCTIC COLD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER BAFFIN ISLAND DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR LOOKS NASTY AS 925MB
TEMPS FALL FROM -14C TO -18C AT 12Z TUESDAY...TO -18 TO -21C AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY...TO -26C TO -28C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND HOLDING IN THE -24
TO -28C RANGE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET
WELL BELOW ZERO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND STAY BELOW ZERO ON WEDNESDAY.
IN FACT...MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE -10. ADD INTO THIS A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND INDUCED BY
925MB WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE COMING ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THIS IS A PERFECT RECIPE FOR WIND CHILLS TO DROP TO NEAR
OR INTO WARNING CRITERIA EVERYWHERE. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL SOMETIME
THURSDAY WHEN WE FINALLY GET OUT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A BRIEF WARM UP IS PROGGED THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO MN. THIS WARM
ADVECTION LOOKS TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 30-40 AND
MAY NEED FURTHER INCREASES. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...ANOTHER
ARCTIC AIRMASS DROPS IN...SIMILAR TO THE ONE FOR TONIGHT. MORE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE LIKELY. FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THESE MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED 3-5 DEGREES.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA FINALLY BREAKS DOWN.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...GETTING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ACCOMPANYING THE WARM ADVECTION COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT PER 04.00Z
ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2015
MAIN TAF CONCERNS ARE DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LATEST 17Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT OVER MICHIGAN AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE PRODUCING WINDS SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN PER LATEST 17Z METARS. LATEST RST METARS SHOW
MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. HOWEVER...COORDINATING WITH
TOWER...THE VISIBILITY AT THE SENSOR SITE IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE
OF THE AIRPORT FIELD AND HAVE INTRODUCED VFR CONDITIONS AT RST
TAF SITE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z MONDAY...AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES BY
04-05Z MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY PRODUCE IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AT LSE AND RST TAF SITES...AS CEILINGS LOWER AND
VISIBILITIES ARE REDUCED...DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTING AND LIGHT
SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ032>034.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR WIZ041>044-053>055-061.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR WIZ053>055-061.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017-029.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ086-087-094>096.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-094-
095.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR MNZ096.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ010-011-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DTJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
518 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
ILLINOIS..AND RIDGES ON BOTH COASTS OF THE U.S.. ALSO OF NOTE WERE A
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN MO AND IL WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS SUPPORTED A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SEE THE LATEST MKEPNSARX FOR UPDATED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE HAS STAYED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WE ARE
FEELING ITS EFFECTS IN THE WIND DEPARTMENT...AS THAT POTENT
SHORTWAVE HAS HELPED TO DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NOW OVER LOWER MI.
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING IN THE 20-40 MPH RANGE...HIGHEST
WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 52. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. 925MB TEMPS PER RAP ANALYSIS HAVE FALLEN TO -5C SOUTHEAST
TO -15C NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...MUCH COLDER -20 TO -24C 925MB AIR WAS
LURKING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN...AND AROUND
-30C UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. READINGS ARE WELL BELOW ZERO UNDER
THIS COLDER AIR.
THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF SNOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST QUICKLY THIS MORNING...IN
RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA MARCHING EAST. MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BY 15Z THE SNOW SHOULD HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OVER WI UNTIL 18Z. THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS DRY AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRY ARCTIC
AIR MOVE IN.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS AS ARCTIC AIR POURS
INTO THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS FALL TO -20 TO -24C
BY 00Z AND -23 TO -27C BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR
COMBINED WITH A 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WIND SPEED TODAY CAUSES WIND
CHILLS TO EVENTUALLY FALL INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA / LESS THAN 20
BELOW ZERO / EVERYWHERE BY SUNSET. FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE
TONIGHT TO PUT TAYLOR AND CLARK INTO WARNING CRITERIA / 35 BELOW
ZERO. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN COULD GET CLOSE TO WARNING AS
WELL.
REGARDING HAZARDS. CONSIDERED WAITING UNTIL 15Z...THE EXPIRATION
TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN 10 COUNTIES...TO
START HOISTING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SEEING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
TODAY...AND ALL NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES ALSO HOISTING
ADVISORIES...HAVE ISSUED THE ADVISORIES NOW. HAVE ALSO UPGRADED THE
WATCH FOR TAYLOR/CLARK TO A WARNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2015
THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION TO START MONDAY MODIFIES QUITE A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY...REFLECTED BY 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO -18 TO -21C
BY 00Z. THIS MODIFICATION ALLOWS OUR WIND CHILLS TO MOSTLY GET ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 18Z...WHICH IS THE END TIME FOR THE HAZARDS.
SOME EXTENSION PAST 18Z COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A FEW AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE IMPROVEMENT IN WIND CHILLS COMES AT THE EXPENSE OF
SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
04.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FAST MOVING POTENT
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...TRACKING FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AT 18Z MONDAY TO EASTERN IOWA BY 06Z TUESDAY. THIS IS A
DISTANCE OF 925 MILES...RESULTING IN A 77 MPH AVERAGE SPEED FOR THE
SHORTWAVE. THE COMBINATION OF DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVE...DIVERGENCE
FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET AND STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS...WILL LEAD TO A BROAD SWATH OF SNOW ON THE ORDER OF
300 MILE WIDTH. CONTAINED WITHIN THAT SWATH WILL BE A SMALLER...
HEAVIER BAND ON THE ORDER OF 100 MILE WIDTH PER MODEL CONSENSUS.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 0.5 INCH AS SUGGESTED
BY THE NAM/GFS AND SOME SREF MEMBERS. WITH A DEEP EFFECTIVE
DENDRITIC GROWTH OF 300MB...THAT COULD RESULT IN 8 TO 12 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL...MUCH OF WHICH FALLING WITHIN IN A 9 HOUR WINDOW. THE
SERIOUS PROBLEM IN FORECASTING THESE HIGH AMOUNTS IS PLACEMENT. THE
BOUNDS SEEMS TO BE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE
04.00Z NAM AND ALONG I-80 PER THE 04.00Z GFS. GIVEN THIS LARGE
PLACEMENT ISSUE...CANNOT FORECAST THE HIGHER AMOUNTS YET.
HOWEVER...THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS VERY MUCH WARRANTED...THOUGH
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM OFF THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE WATCH.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HAVE INCREASED THEM QUITE A BIT
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN FASTER TIMING...ALONG WITH MORE OF A
DECREASE FOR OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS BACK TO THE ARCTIC COLD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER BAFFIN ISLAND DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR LOOKS NASTY AS 925MB
TEMPS FALL FROM -14C TO -18C AT 12Z TUESDAY...TO -18 TO -21C AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY...TO -26C TO -28C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND HOLDING IN THE -24
TO -28C RANGE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET
WELL BELOW ZERO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND STAY BELOW ZERO ON WEDNESDAY.
IN FACT...MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE -10. ADD INTO THIS A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND INDUCED BY
925MB WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE COMING ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THIS IS A PERFECT RECIPE FOR WIND CHILLS TO DROP TO NEAR
OR INTO WARNING CRITERIA EVERYWHERE. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL SOMETIME
THURSDAY WHEN WE FINALLY GET OUT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A BRIEF WARM UP IS PROGGED THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO MN. THIS WARM
ADVECTION LOOKS TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 30-40 AND
MAY NEED FURTHER INCREASES. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...ANOTHER
ARCTIC AIRMASS DROPS IN...SIMILAR TO THE ONE FOR TONIGHT. MORE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE LIKELY. FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THESE MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED 3-5 DEGREES.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA FINALLY BREAKS DOWN.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...GETTING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ACCOMPANYING THE WARM ADVECTION COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT PER 04.00Z
ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2015
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
BUT BEFORE IT DOES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KRST THROUGH LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE PLAN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 18 TO 23 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL END LATER THIS
MORNING BUT THE GUSTY WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW
AT KRST INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR SKIES TO CLEAR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO INTO THE 9 TO 13 KT
RANGE TONIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR WIZ032>034.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR WIZ041>044-053.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR WIZ053>055-061.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR WIZ054-055-061.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
WIZ017-029.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR WIZ017-029.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ086-087-094>096.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ086-
087-094-095.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094-095.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR MNZ096.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ010-011-029.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
309 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
ILLINOIS..AND RIDGES ON BOTH COASTS OF THE U.S.. ALSO OF NOTE WERE A
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN MO AND IL WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS SUPPORTED A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SEE THE LATEST MKEPNSARX FOR UPDATED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE HAS STAYED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WE ARE
FEELING ITS EFFECTS IN THE WIND DEPARTMENT...AS THAT POTENT
SHORTWAVE HAS HELPED TO DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NOW OVER LOWER MI.
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING IN THE 20-40 MPH RANGE...HIGHEST
WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 52. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. 925MB TEMPS PER RAP ANALYSIS HAVE FALLEN TO -5C SOUTHEAST
TO -15C NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...MUCH COLDER -20 TO -24C 925MB AIR WAS
LURKING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN...AND AROUND
-30C UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. READINGS ARE WELL BELOW ZERO UNDER
THIS COLDER AIR.
THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF SNOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST QUICKLY THIS MORNING...IN
RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA MARCHING EAST. MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BY 15Z THE SNOW SHOULD HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OVER WI UNTIL 18Z. THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS DRY AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRY ARCTIC
AIR MOVE IN.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS AS ARCTIC AIR POURS
INTO THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS FALL TO -20 TO -24C
BY 00Z AND -23 TO -27C BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR
COMBINED WITH A 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WIND SPEED TODAY CAUSES WIND
CHILLS TO EVENTUALLY FALL INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA / LESS THAN 20
BELOW ZERO / EVERYWHERE BY SUNSET. FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE
TONIGHT TO PUT TAYLOR AND CLARK INTO WARNING CRITERIA / 35 BELOW
ZERO. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN COULD GET CLOSE TO WARNING AS
WELL.
REGARDING HAZARDS. CONSIDERED WAITING UNTIL 15Z...THE EXPIRATION
TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN 10 COUNTIES...TO
START HOISTING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SEEING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
TODAY...AND ALL NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES ALSO HOISTING
ADVISORIES...HAVE ISSUED THE ADVISORIES NOW. HAVE ALSO UPGRADED THE
WATCH FOR TAYLOR/CLARK TO A WARNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2015
THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION TO START MONDAY MODIFIES QUITE A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY...REFLECTED BY 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO -18 TO -21C
BY 00Z. THIS MODIFICATION ALLOWS OUR WIND CHILLS TO MOSTLY GET ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 18Z...WHICH IS THE END TIME FOR THE HAZARDS.
SOME EXTENSION PAST 18Z COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A FEW AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE IMPROVEMENT IN WIND CHILLS COMES AT THE EXPENSE OF
SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
04.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FAST MOVING POTENT
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...TRACKING FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AT 18Z MONDAY TO EASTERN IOWA BY 06Z TUESDAY. THIS IS A
DISTANCE OF 925 MILES...RESULTING IN A 77 MPH AVERAGE SPEED FOR THE
SHORTWAVE. THE COMBINATION OF DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVE...DIVERGENCE
FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET AND STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS...WILL LEAD TO A BROAD SWATH OF SNOW ON THE ORDER OF
300 MILE WIDTH. CONTAINED WITHIN THAT SWATH WILL BE A SMALLER...
HEAVIER BAND ON THE ORDER OF 100 MILE WIDTH PER MODEL CONSENSUS.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 0.5 INCH AS SUGGESTED
BY THE NAM/GFS AND SOME SREF MEMBERS. WITH A DEEP EFFECTIVE
DENDRITIC GROWTH OF 300MB...THAT COULD RESULT IN 8 TO 12 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL...MUCH OF WHICH FALLING WITHIN IN A 9 HOUR WINDOW. THE
SERIOUS PROBLEM IN FORECASTING THESE HIGH AMOUNTS IS PLACEMENT. THE
BOUNDS SEEMS TO BE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE
04.00Z NAM AND ALONG I-80 PER THE 04.00Z GFS. GIVEN THIS LARGE
PLACEMENT ISSUE...CANNOT FORECAST THE HIGHER AMOUNTS YET.
HOWEVER...THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS VERY MUCH WARRANTED...THOUGH
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM OFF THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE WATCH.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HAVE INCREASED THEM QUITE A BIT
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN FASTER TIMING...ALONG WITH MORE OF A
DECREASE FOR OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS BACK TO THE ARCTIC COLD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER BAFFIN ISLAND DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR LOOKS NASTY AS 925MB
TEMPS FALL FROM -14C TO -18C AT 12Z TUESDAY...TO -18 TO -21C AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY...TO -26C TO -28C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND HOLDING IN THE -24
TO -28C RANGE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET
WELL BELOW ZERO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND STAY BELOW ZERO ON WEDNESDAY.
IN FACT...MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE -10. ADD INTO THIS A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND INDUCED BY
925MB WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE COMING ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THIS IS A PERFECT RECIPE FOR WIND CHILLS TO DROP TO NEAR
OR INTO WARNING CRITERIA EVERYWHERE. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL SOMETIME
THURSDAY WHEN WE FINALLY GET OUT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A BRIEF WARM UP IS PROGGED THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO MN. THIS WARM
ADVECTION LOOKS TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 30-40 AND
MAY NEED FURTHER INCREASES. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...ANOTHER
ARCTIC AIRMASS DROPS IN...SIMILAR TO THE ONE FOR TONIGHT. MORE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE LIKELY. FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THESE MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED 3-5 DEGREES.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA FINALLY BREAKS DOWN.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...GETTING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ACCOMPANYING THE WARM ADVECTION COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT PER 04.00Z
ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015
SNOW HAS MOVED INTO KRST AND IT IS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO A HALF
MILE. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR THERE...BUT WITH IFR CONDITIONS
JUST WEST THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD MOVE IN SOON. THIS SNOW WILL
SNOW MOVE INTO KLSE AROUND 04.07Z. THE SNOW WILL THEN LINGER FOR
4 TO 6 HOURS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. IN
ADDITION TO THE SNOW... STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS
BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3 MILES AT KRST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 04.15Z AND
04.21Z...AND KLSE AROUND 04.21Z. AT THIS TIME...THE WIND GUSTS
SHOULD SUBSIDE. HOWEVER SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15
KNOTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR WIZ032>034.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR WIZ041>044-053.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR WIZ053>055-061.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR WIZ054-055-061.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
WIZ017-029.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR WIZ017-029.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ086-087-094>096.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ086-
087-094-095.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094-095.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR MNZ096.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ010-011-029.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
322 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
...MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE HAS
ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO BECOME NEAR CALM OVER INLAND AREAS AND WITH
MAINLY SCATTERED THIN CIRRUS ALOFT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 35-40 DEG RANGE WITH SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS INLD SE GA AND THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO COAST AND FURTHER SOUTH
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S. BASICALLY SEASONABLY COOL READINGS FOR
EARLY JANUARY. LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE TRYING TO SHOW SOME PATCHY FOG
IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FROST ACROSS INLD SE GA AROUND SUNRISE WITH
VSBYS IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE...WILL MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN FORECAST PACKAGE BUT THIS IS USUALLY NOT THE PATTERN TO
GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY DENSE FOG.
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION AND SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS NE FL AND MID/UPPER 60S
ACROSS SE GA.
TONIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND SHOULD BE
PUSHING INTO SOUTH GEORGIA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED AND WITH WINDS BECOMING NEAR CALM AFTER SUNSET EXPECT A
RAPID FALL IN TEMPS TO BECOME TEMPERED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS GRADIENT
STARTS TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY AS FRONT APPROACHES WITH W/NW WINDS
COMING UP TO AROUND 5 MPH AT LEAST AND EVENT WITH LOW TEMPS EXPECTED
IN THE 30S OVER INLAND AREAS...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FROST FORMATION AS BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MIXED
TOWARDS MORNING. CLOSER TO THE COAST STILL EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
.SHORT TERM /WED-THU/...
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH (1050+MB) WILL RAPIDLY DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON WEDNESDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES WILL PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS WHILE
LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER CAN
EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH LATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
THE COLD AIR AND WIND COMBINATION WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10
DEGREES ACROSS INLAND SE GEORGIA. WIND CHILLS WILL BE HELD IN THE
20S ALONG THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA DUE TO WINDS QUICKLY VEERING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA
COAST. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND HARD FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH EVEN WIND ADVISORIES EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES.
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 ACROSS SE GA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH. MAX TEMPS ACROSS NE FL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE
LOW 50S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY AS PRESSURE RISES COME TO AN END. THIS AIR MASS
WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS ACTUALLY FALLING BELOW ZERO
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OFFSHORE COULD PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLY
EVEN A SLEET PELLET OVER OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...BUT WE
WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS
DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.
NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A RADIATIONAL
COOLING FREEZE ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NE FL
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER HARD FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF SE GA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S AT
THE BEACHES BUT THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND NO WIND OR
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.
.LONG TERM /FRI-MON/...
THIS COLD AIR OUTBREAK WILL BE ONE OF RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION
WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES WELL NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. MAX TEMPS THOUGH
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO THE THE UPPER 50S WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS INCREASING FROM
THE WEST.
A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SE GA FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WE WILL CLIMB A
LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS NE FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND WE WILL SHOW
GENERALLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WITH HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING. LOW CHANCES FOR MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG AT KVQQ.
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS TONIGHT. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED IN THE NEAR-TERM. ALTHOUGH INCREASE TO STRONG
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/GALE CONDS STILL EXPECTED IN THE WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WED IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 63 35 56 23 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 65 42 59 28 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 68 38 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 69 42 63 35 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 71 38 62 27 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 73 38 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
HESS/SHULER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1156 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...
302 PM CST
TONIGHT...
SYNOPTIC/FORCING DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW MOVING ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER. SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
IOWA WITH A WARM ADVECTION RIBBON EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MANY SITES ACROSS IOWA ARE REPORTING 1/4 TO 1/2SM
VSBY WITH STRONG REFLECTIVITY ON THE RADAR MOSAIC. GROUND REPORTS
THUS FAR INDICATE INCH PER HOURS AMOUNTS WITH NEAR 0.10 INCH LIQUID
LEADING TO 10-11:1 SNOW RATIOS. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS
SHOW THAT THE BEST FGEN FORCING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
TO HALF OF THE ARA THIS EVENING CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT
THAT IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. HEAVIEST LIQUID SHOULD
FALL JUST NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WHICH WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP SNOW GROWTH ZONE BUT
ALIGNMENT OF BEST ASCENT VARIES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERN AREAS
ENTRENCHED IN THE DEEPER COLD AIR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE FORCING
ABOVE THE BEST SNOW GROWTH ZONE WHILE AREAS SOUTH SEE A BETTER
ALIGNMENT. THIS MAY BE WHAT IS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WHERE
LOWER RATIOS HAVE BEEN REPORTED THUS FAR /SMALLER FLAKE SIZE AND
LESS FLUFF TO ACCUMULATION/.
ACCUMULATION/TIMING DISCUSSION...WITH SNOW QUICKLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD HAVE BUMPED UP POPS AFTER 22Z IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
SOUTHWEST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK RAMP UP IN INTENSITY BY
AROUND 00Z WITH A 4-5 HOUR WINDOW OF STRONG FORCING BEFORE THINGS
TAPER AROUND AND AFTER 06Z. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW
FOR SNOW BEFORE THINGS QUICKLY EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE EXPECTATION OF 15-18:1 RATIOS FOR NOW. BEST
FORCING...ALIGNMENT OF FORCING WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...AND
DURATION OF FORCING CONTINUE TO BE ALIGNED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA
WITH THESE ELEMENTS LESS ALIGNED TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE
TIGHTENED UP THE ACCUMULATION GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA SOMEWHAT TO
SHOW A LITTLE BIT LESS IN FAR NORTHEAST IL. AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A MENDOTA TO SOUTH CHICAGO METRO TO RENSSELAER LOOK TO
SEE SNOW FALL ACCUMULATION RATES OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR LEADING
TO A BROAD AREA OF 3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS WITH AREAS ALONG A AND SOUTH
OF A STREATOR TO WATSEKA TO FOWLER LINE SEEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
EVEN 5 TO 7 INCHES.
HEADLINE AND IMPACTS DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA GIVEN EXPECTED AMOUNTS.
HAVE MADE AN EARLY UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE FAR
SOUTH GIVEN THE EXPECTED BETTER BANDING AND BETTER ALIGNMENT OF
FORCING ETC. DISCUSSED ABOVE. SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ACCUMULATION RATE
WILL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH RATES AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR AND
POSSIBLY TOWARDS 1.5 IN/HR IN THE FAR SOUTH MAKING SNOW REMOVAL
DIFFICULT...NOT TO MENTION LIMITING VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES. DESPITE LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL
EXPECT A DECENT ACCUMULATION RATE LEADING TO TRAVEL HAZARDS.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
325 PM CST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT THE SNOW TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEN QUICKLY TO THE
WEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LAKE SNOW SHOWERS COULD ORGANIZE
ENOUGH TO IMPACT PORTER COUNTY FOR A VERY SHORT TIME BEFORE DAYBREAK
BUT THEY WOULD QUICKLY END. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT A REINFORCING HIGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL
QUICKLY MERGE WITH IT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME...A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS.
ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY EVENING. IT
WILL BE QUITE SHEARED OUT BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE
INCREASINGLY COLD AIR TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD AIR. WITH THE AREA BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE BUILDING HIGH TO THE WEST BREEZY WETS
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING SOUTHWEST. THE
INITIAL ISSUE WILL BE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VSBY LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL SO WILL NEED TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS LATER TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL FALL TO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH LITTLE RECOVERY WEDNESDAY...THEN FALL TO -5 TO -15 OR SO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED WIND CHILL HEADLINES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS WILL
HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW DUE TO THE ARRIVING SNOW EVENT. MOST AREAS
OF ILLINOIS LOOK TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA AND SOUTHERN AREAS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA MAY BE IN HIGH END ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERALL
EXPECT WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO AROUND -35 DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS THURSDAY
ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM FORM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MODEST WARMING...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE MODERATION OF TEMPS TO
THE TEENS. THE PASSING TROUGH MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER THURSDAY BUT WILL NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE
THIS. THINGS COOL SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY BUT THE BIG TROUGH LOOKS TO
SHIFT EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
RESULTING IN A MODERATION OF TEMPS. EMBEDDED WAVES MAY BRING SOME
CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS WELL.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SNOW TAPERING OVER NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH VSBY IMPROVING.
* POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
* INCREASINGLY GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TONIGHT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH SUBSIDENCE NOTED ACROSS IOWA AND
MINNESOTA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY AND HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW STARTING TO PUSH EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
VISIBILITY IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1-2SM AND
EXPECT THIS TO BE THE PREVAILING VIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
BY AROUND 08Z SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO A FEW FLURRIES WITH SKIES
STARTING TO SCATTER/CLEAR BY EARLY TO MID MORNING TUESDAY. MAV/LAV
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT VSBY TANKING LATE TONIGHT AND IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS DUE TO FOG. A LOOK AT GFS SOUNDINGS THOUGH SHOW DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS STAYING UP SO NOT PUTTING MUCH STOCK IN THIS AT
THE MOMENT...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CLOUD COVER TO
SEE IF WE CLEAR OUT EARLIER THEN EXPECTED AND START TO RADIATE
MORE EFFICIENTLY.
CALM/LIGHT WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS EARLY GRADUALLY BACKING TO WEST BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 KT BY THE EVENING HOURS.
AT SOME POINT WOULD EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO BECOME AN
ISSUE...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT IN HOW THIS WOULD IMPACT VSBY AT THIS
TIME...AND ANY RESTRICTIONS MAY REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW END TIME.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN VSBY
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEDNESDAY...BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE. STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
* THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
319 PM CST
THE ROGER BLOUGH WHICH HAS BEEN COMING DOWN THE WISCONSIN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND IS CROSSING THE SOUTH END HAS BEEN REPORTING WAVES
AROUND 5 FT THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WAVES SHOULD BE SUBSIDING
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF
THE LAKE AND IS FOLLOWED BY A WEAK LOW...ALLOWING WINDS TO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM EARLIER GALES. WAVES BUILD AGAIN
TOMORROW AS WEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
HIGH. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE GROWTH OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSES INTO THE MIDWEST AND WINDS
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING AT
LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG
NORTHWEST GUSTS.
AFTER THE GALE AND FREEZING SPRAY EVENT TOWARD MIDWEEK...THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGS CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STRONG WINDS AND
HIGH WAVES ON THE LAKE...THOUGH THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS COLD.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011 UNTIL 6 AM
TUESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ019 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM TUESDAY TO
3 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1149 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
Fast moving clipper system pushing through central Illinois this
evening bringing widespread snow to the area, with reports so far
ranging to around 3 inches in a corridor from near Galesburg to
Bloomington. This corridor will remain the prime location for
additional accumulations which should total in excess of 6 inches
by the time the main accumulations with this storm end around
midnight. Totals around an inch or two are still expected as far
south as Springfield to Mattoon. Very cold temperatures in the
teens and even some single digits accompany the snow, so it should
be quite light and easily produce minor blowing and drifting
despite the relatively modest winds of around 10 mph accompanying
this storm. Current forecasts appear in good shape with the
current storm trends and no significant updates have been
necessary so far.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
The 12z models continue to show a short duration, high-intensity
snow event this evening. Light snow has already developed across
our SW counties, which the HRRR shows will expand northward by 6
pm and intensify this evening. The surface low track is progged to
go across IL on a line from Pittsfield to Effingham, which
generally fits our current snowfall forecast coverage. One
additional concern is trying to pinpoint the location of the
traditional 60-80 mile wide band of heaviest snowfall. At this
point, it looks like it will extend along and just north of the
I-74 corridor. Satellite and radar images are confirming the
development of a robust frontogenetical circulation upstream
across NE SD, SW MN, and Iowa. Model analysis shows that to be in
the 850-700 mb layer. The strongest axis of this F-gen circ is
projected to advance across our northern counties this evening.
Bufkit sounding analysis for sites along the I-74 corridor
continues to indicate the co- location of the max omega, 80+% RH,
and dendritic growth zone for several hours this evening. Those
conditions will translate to the production of large, fluffy
snowflakes. Snowfall rates in this axis will likely climb between
1-1.5" per hour. Additional small- scale bands of heavier snow
could develop in areas farther south and north of the primary
band, so we kept the snow totals on the higher side of advisory
all the way through Lincoln to Mattoon, where a range of 2-5" is
expected. A sharp southern edge remains indicated by most of the
model suite, with locations south of Springfield and Mattoon
likely seeing a dusting to 1 inch.
In addition, after coordination with DVN, LOT, and IND, we decided to
upgrade the I-74 corridor counties from Advisory to Warning due to
the potential for more widespread 6-7" snowfall totals.
The southeast winds this evening will not be much stronger that 10
mph, but the fluffy snow may be light enough for some minor drifting
along roadways.
Snowfall will rapidly diminish from west to east late this evening
and after midnight, as the clipper races into southern Indiana/
Kentucky and weakens. Additional snow accums after midnight will be
light, with the best chances of more than a half inch mainly east of
Champaign to Paris. Most areas will just see some lingering flurries
for a few hours after midnight.
Low temps tonight will drop into the 5-10 range north, with around
20 from Flora to Lawrenceville.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
The bitterly cold airmass will dominate the remainder of the
forecast. Models are still on track with the intense cold that will
follow tonight`s clipper.
Tuesday will see skies begin to clear out from west to east during
the afternoon, and W-NW winds increase. Blowing and drifting
snow may develop as the fluffy snow gets pushed around, causing
travel problems on north-south roads.
On Wednesday, an unusually strong surface high, on the order of 1058
mb, will build southeast through the Dakotas, before settling into
the Ohio Valley by early Thursday. The strong pressure contrast will
result in northwest winds of 15-25 mph Tuesday night and Wednesday,
with some gusts to over 30 mph. Lobe of -24C air at 850 mb will
pivot through the Midwest on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday likely to
remain below zero across the northern CWA, with lows Wednesday night
10-15 below zero north of I-74. Wind chill warnings and advisories
will be needed for late Tuesday night into Thursday morning, as most
of the forecast area sees wind chills 15-25 below with lower than
-25 across the north. Have decided to hold off on adding wind chill
headlines to the mix, due to the winter storm expected tonight
across much of the same area.
The next clipper system is projected to remain across southern
Canada on Thursday, dragging a cold front across northern IL
Thursday night. At this point, we are keeping snow out of the
forecast for Thur night. However, as the system becomes better
defined in a couple days, we may need to add a mention of light snow
for at least our northern counties.
Behind that cold front we will see a reinforcing push of cold air,
but not as cold as the mid-week airmass. We still expect very cold
conditions as wind chills remain below zero on Friday morning and
especially Saturday morning when -10F wind chills develop. For the
weekend, we are still seeing phasing differences in the northern and
southern jet branches. A couple of shortwaves could progress across
IL during the weekend, but timing remains a question. There would be
a period of light snow with any weak disturbances that move across
the area.
Some relief from the cold is projected for next Monday, as highs
climb into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
Areas -sn with cigs ranging from LIFR-MVFR north of KSPI-KMTO
with VFR conditions to the south. Conditions slowly improving
overnight with VFR expected throughout central IL by 15Z. Winds
backing to W-NW by 15Z...increasing and becoming gusty by late
afternoon. Steady winds WNW 12-15 kts expected after 00Z
Wednesday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Tuesday FOR ILZ027>031-037-
038-045-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Tuesday FOR ILZ036-
041>044-053>057.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...HJS/Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
209 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST MON JAN 5 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALONG FRONT RANGE AS A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM AS A RESULT OF CLOUD
COVER AND SHALLOW INVERSION OVER ESTABLISHED SNOW PACK. SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS MANAGED TO BRING WARMER TEMPS FROM FRONT RANGE TOWARDS
EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO...HOWEVER THESE HAVE STRUGGLED TO ADVECT
FURTHER EAST AS WEAKER FLOW HAS BEEN IN PLACE IN KS/NE. I WOULD
STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST IN THE
WEST...BUT THERE MAY BE VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL WARMING IN OUR EAST.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. NAM/RAP SHOWING STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND
THIS FRONT...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS
SATURATED LAYER REMAINING VERY SHALLOW. I AM ALSO SKEPTICAL OF THE
BL CONDITIONS ADVERTISED IN NAM AS ITS SNOW DEPTH IS SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER THAN REALITY (SHOWING 5-12" ACROSS CWA WHEN IN REALITY IT
AVERAGES 1-3"). BL CONDITIONS MAY BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY THIS FIELD
AND SINCE FOG/STRATUS NEVER MATERIALIZED LAST NIGHT I DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF MENTION IN GRIDS. WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH TUESDAY AS LEE
TROUGH REDEVELOPS. SAME ISSUES WITH WARMING TUESDAY AS TODAY AS
CLOUDS SNOW PACK POSSIBLY LIMITING MIXING. NUDGED HIGHS TUESDAY
TOWARD WHATS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR TODAY. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
THESE PERIOD WITH ANYTHING OTHER THAN A DRY FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
OVERALL...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE QUIET IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY COMES FRIDAY...AND ACTIVE IS AN
OVERSTATEMENT. DURING THE DAY...THE CENTER OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
HIGH PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. ON FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUED
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SO
DECIDED TO MENTION LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. AT THIS
TIME...IT IS TOO TOUGH TO TELL WHETHER THE ICE GROWTH ZONE SATURATES
OR NOT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO FRIDAY
MORNING AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT. FURTHER
EAST...THERE MAY BE SOME PRECIPITATION BUT FORECAST LIFT APPEARS
WEAK. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
GUARANTEES ANOTHER COLD DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST BUT LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH BUT MOISTURE LOOKS MINIMAL AT
THIS TIME. THERE APPEARS TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN SHIFT BY
NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TAKES SHAPE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WOULD MEAN A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR INLAND THIS RIDGE PRESSES. THIS TREND SHOULD
NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IF IT WERE TO
OCCUR. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME AS THE
EUROPEAN DEVELOPS THE RIDGE EARLIER WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A RIDGE
WITH A CUT-OFF LOW PASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MST MON JAN 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS EVENING WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BRING IN
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND IS REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE WITH ANOTHER LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 02Z
TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND STRONGER NORTH WINDS TO
FOLLOW ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING JUST BEYOND THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1101 PM MST MON JAN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST MON JAN 5 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALONG FRONT RANGE AS A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM AS A RESULT OF CLOUD
COVER AND SHALLOW INVERSION OVER ESTABLISHED SNOW PACK. SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS MANAGED TO BRING WARMER TEMPS FROM FRONT RANGE TOWARDS
EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO...HOWEVER THESE HAVE STRUGGLED TO ADVECT
FURTHER EAST AS WEAKER FLOW HAS BEEN IN PLACE IN KS/NE. I WOULD
STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST IN THE
WEST...BUT THERE MAY BE VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL WARMING IN OUR EAST.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. NAM/RAP SHOWING STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND
THIS FRONT...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS
SATURATED LAYER REMAINING VERY SHALLOW. I AM ALSO SKEPTICAL OF THE
BL CONDITIONS ADVERTISED IN NAM AS ITS SNOW DEPTH IS SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER THAN REALITY (SHOWING 5-12" ACROSS CWA WHEN IN REALITY IT
AVERAGES 1-3"). BL CONDITIONS MAY BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY THIS FIELD
AND SINCE FOG/STRATUS NEVER MATERIALIZED LAST NIGHT I DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF MENTION IN GRIDS. WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH TUESDAY AS LEE
TROUGH REDEVELOPS. SAME ISSUES WITH WARMING TUESDAY AS TODAY AS
CLOUDS SNOW PACK POSSIBLY LIMITING MIXING. NUDGED HIGHS TUESDAY
TOWARD WHATS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR TODAY. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
THESE PERIOD WITH ANYTHING OTHER THAN A DRY FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST MON JAN 5 2015
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL
SPILL IN BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
ON THURSDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS...BUT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL AGAIN
BE VERY LIGHT...LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE QUITE AS COLD BEHIND THAT FRONT WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE
20S. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH A ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CONUS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MST MON JAN 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS EVENING WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BRING IN
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND IS REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE WITH ANOTHER LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 02Z
TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND STRONGER NORTH WINDS TO
FOLLOW ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING JUST BEYOND THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
WARM FRONT ALOFT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE WEST HELPING MIX THE WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
SFC...BFF AND IBM IN THE PANHANDLE ARE IN THE 40S. MEANWHILE FURTHER
EAST THE SNOWPACK AND LOWER LEVELS OF MOST OF THE CWA RESULTING IN
LESS MIXING AND TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT
SNOW TO N CENTRAL MOST OF THE DAY HAS DRIFTED EAST WITH MOST REPORTS
NOW ONLY SEEING FLURRIES IF ANYTHING. A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IS
CROSSING THE BLACK HILLS...ALTHOUGH THE TEMP THERE WAS ABOVE
FREEZING /AS WAS THE TEMPS OF THE LOWER LEVELS/ SO PRECIP WAS LIQUID
EARLIER. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO PUSH SE ACROSS WESTERN S
DAKOTA AND RAP HAS COOLED OFF WITH THE 21Z OB HAVING CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
ANOTHER COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FIRST OFF IS EVENING TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA IN POSITIVE C TERRITORY...HOWEVER MIXING IS LIMITED DO TO
CLOUDS...SNOW PACK...AND JANUARY SUN ANGLE. A COLD FRONT IS
BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
OVERNIGHT. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
AND ARE GUSTY. THIS GUSTINESS ALONG THE FRONT MAY ACTUALLY HELP
CAUSE A BUMP IN TEMPS. WITH SUCH WARM 850 MB TEMPS...THE MIXING MAY
CAUSE TEMPS TO SURGE BRIEFLY INTO THE 30S. THIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN CWA...MORE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO
THE SE. A FEW RADAR RETURNS ACROSS SW SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN NEB. THE WARM LOWER LEVEL IS ALSO DRY AND EXPECT LITTLE
MOISTURE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. THAT SAID...CAN NOT RULE OUT A
FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES THIS EVENING. THE NW FLOW AROUND THE HILLS
CONVERGES NEAR PINE RIDGE AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW THERE AS
WELL. AGAIN SOME CONCERN FOR THE DRY LOWER LEVELS LIMITING ANYTHING
REACHING THE GROUND AND POPS ARE LOW.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DO FINALLY DROP AFTER THE FRONT IS SOUTH OF
THE AREA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS LINGER AS A BLANKET AND LIMIT COOLING.
LOWS GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE
TEENS.
TOMORROW ARRIVES THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE FAST MOVING NW FLOW
REGIME. NORTHERN NEBRASKA HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. LIFT IS
MARGINAL IN THE NARROW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND SHOULD COMBINE
WITH THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO LESS THAN
AN INCH DURING THE DAYTIME. HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEB...ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL.
WARMER IN THE SW...MID 20S TO NEAR FREEZING...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
OPTIMISTIC DUE TO THE SNOW PACK.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
THE NEXT AIR MASS WILL MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THE TEMPERATURE OF THE AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE 5-15F
COLDER IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THAN IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ARE LOCATED WHERE THE
STRONGEST WIND IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...WIND CHILLS OF -20F TO -25F
APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR -30F FOR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA NEAR THE NIOBRARA.
ANOTHER FORECAST ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT. WITH THE AIR MASS SO STRONG...THE SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT
IS LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN THE 280-300K LAYER WITH THE BEST LIFT
IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A CROSS SECTION OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL
CIRCULATION THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL-SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INDICATES THAT
THE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LOT OF ENHANCEMENT FROM
FRONTOGENESIS OR INSTABILITY. WITH THE LOW PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
INDICATED IN THE MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND WE WILL KEEP
THE PROBABILITY FAIRLY LOW.
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...HIGHER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
A FRONT SAGS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS GOES
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. IN FACT...WITH ARCTIC AIR
MASSES GOING THROUGH EVERY TWO DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WIDELY
FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT. AS THE FRONTS GO THROUGH...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION BUT THE CHANCES...IF ANY...WILL BE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
AT KVTN...IFR CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 07Z. AN APPRAOCHING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR
CEILINGS TO KVTN AND KLBF AFTER 21Z...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ005>010-
026>029.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
103 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. EVEN COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS...BLUSTERY
WINDS AND A POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215 AM UPDATE...LES OFF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH
INLAND EXTENT BECOMING MORE LIMITED AS FLOW WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW
WARNING FOR NRN ONEIDA COUNTY TO EXPIRE AT 1 AM.
945 AM UPDATE...
DROPPED LES WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE LES BAND REMAINS ACRS NW
PART OF ONEIDA COUNTY AND WILL CONT LES WARNING NRN ONEIDA UNTIL
1 AM. THIS BAND WILL MOVE N OF ONEIDA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR
CONTS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDL ON THE BAND. THE LL FLOW CONTS TO
SLOWLY BACK MORE W-SW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND WAS
THE REASON FOR THE MOVEMENT OF THIS BAND. THIS WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SEE 345 PM UPDATE FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THIS.
645 PM UPDATE...
DROPPED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR ONONDAGA AND MADISON
COUNTIES AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY BACKS MORE WRLY IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LWR LAKE REGION. RADAR TRENDS ALSO SHOW THAT THIS BAND WAS
HEADING NORTHWARD. THE HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
PROGRESSION AND USED ITS REFLECTIVITY FIELDS AS A STARTING POINT
FOR MY HOURLY POPS. THESE HRRR FORECASTS WERE CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT JUST HASTEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN NC NY BY A FEW HOURS. FOR ONEIDA COUNTY
KEPT SRN 2/3 IN LES WARNING WHICH IS DUE TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM AND
THE NRN 1/3 EXPIRES BY 1 AM. THESE ENDING TIMES MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND CONT TO WATCH PROGRESSION
OF LES BANDS. I CAN SEE AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE INCHES IN SRN ONEIDA
AND MAYBE 3-5 INCHES ADDITIONAL IN NW ONEIDA CO. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SCT CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT FROM WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT
WAVE. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON TUESDAY/S
LIGHT SNOW EVENT.
300 PM UPDATE...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TARGETING OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY STATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STILL TOO
FAR SOUTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE BAND...WHICH IS A TYPICAL BIAS.
EXCEPT...THIS TIME THEY WERE VERY MUCH IN ERROR. THE CANADIAN LAM
AND GEM SEEMED TO DO THE BEST AND WERE LEANED ON. THE WESTERN HALF
OF ONEIDA COUNTY WILL SEE THE MOST TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WITH 1-2
FEET EXPECTED. ALREADY HAD REPORTS EARLIER TODAY RANGING FROM
10-14 INCHES WITH ANOTHER 6-12 TO COME TONIGHT. THE EXTREME NRN
BORDER OF ONONDAGA AND MADISON WILL ALSO FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE
LAKE SNOWS...BUT AREAS SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY MAY ONLY SEE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
LAKE BAND LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA/NRN GTLKS. THIS WILL BRING A VERY SHORT
REPRIEVE FROM THE LAKE SNOW...BEFORE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WORKS
IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
BLUSTERY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
300 PM...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE
MID- ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY...WITH A BIT OF A FURTHER SOUTH TREND
TO THE SNOW SHIELD THAN EARLIER RUNS. UPPER TROF AND WARM ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD STILL BRING LIGHT SNOW EVERYWHERE
IN CNY/NEPA. THIS LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THOSE HIGH PROBABILITY EVENTS
WITH LOW QPF...SO WILL STILL HIT IT WITH CAT POPS AND CALL IT PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW TO ILLUSTRATE THE MINIMAL IMPACT AND ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. WITH DENDRITE ZONE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
ONLY WEAK LIFT EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT ZONE...ACCUMS RIGHT NOW ARE ON
THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR SO.
THE BIGGER STORY THIS PERIOD IS THE IMPENDING ARCTIC FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AND RESULTING COLD SNAP THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
PATTERN HAS ALL THE MARKINGS OF A SNOW SQUALL EVENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT EITHER...LIFTS AN EXISTING LAKE BAND OFF
LAKE ONTARIO AND DRIVES IT SOUTHWARD...OR TAPS INTO
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE PRIOR TO THE FROPA. MODEL SOUNDING
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND THE BTV SNOW SQUALL TOOL IS JUST AS IMPRESSIVE. WILL
INTRODUCE THIS SNOW SQUALL HAZARD INTO OUR HAZ WX OUTLOOK PRODUCT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO TRAVEL AS A RESULT OF QUICK
HITTING SNOWS AND POOR VSBYS.
SOME LAKE RESPONSE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT
ATMOSPHERE DOES BECOME SYNOPTICALLY MOISTURE STARVED AND COLDER
THAN THE DENDRITE PRODUCTION ZONE...SO ACCUMS MAY BE LIMITED.
BLUSTERY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR WILL NATURALLY COMBINE FOR
PROBLEMATIC WIND CHILLS...AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST VALUES DO
SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA WITH READINGS COLDER THAN 15 BELOW. A MARGINAL WIND
CHILL WARNING EXISTS FOR OUR NATURALLY COLDER EASTERN ZONES BY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...JUST ANOTHER ADDITION TO THE HAZ WX
OUTLOOK PRODUCT BUT FCST TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
WATCHES...WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.
TEMPS COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND FOLLOWED A
MULTI-MODEL BLEND ON TEMPS/DWPTS/WIND AND SKY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.
LOWERED THU NGT MIN TEMPS SINCE THU MAX TEMPS COLDER. ENTIRE
PERIOD COLDER THAN AVERAGE WITH LAKE EFFECT AND A CLIPPER FRIDAY
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND BETTER LAKE EFFECT
WILL STAY IN THE NORTHERN THREE COUNTIES INCLUDING SYR AND RME.
QUESTIONS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT CLIPPER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY SO FOR NOW HAVE A GENERIC 20 POP FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING THIS MORNING ACROSS
CNTRL NEW YORK. EXPECT A BRIEF LUL IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MVFR WITH
EMBEDDED IFR. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO WEAKEN TO VFR AROUND 00Z
TONIGHT AS STRONG CAA MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT/WED...LAKE EFFECT -SHSN BRINGING RESTRICTIONS TO NY
TERMINALS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
THU...MAINLY VFR BUT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE KSYR-RME IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THU NGT/FRI/SAT...ANOTHER CLIPPER BRINGING RESTRICTIONS IN -SHSN
THU NGT WITH LAKE EFFECT -SHSN OVR NY TERMINALS FRI/SAT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/JAB/RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN/JAB/RRM
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1221 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. EVEN COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS...BLUSTERY
WINDS AND A POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215 AM UPDATE...LES OFF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH
INLAND EXTENT BECOMING MORE LIMITED AS FLOW WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW
WARNING FOR NRN ONEIDA COUNTY TO EXPIRE AT 1 AM.
945 AM UPDATE...
DROPPED LES WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE LES BAND REMAINS ACRS NW
PART OF ONEIDA COUNTY AND WILL CONT LES WARNING NRN ONEIDA UNTIL
1 AM. THIS BAND WILL MOVE N OF ONEIDA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR
CONTS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDL ON THE BAND. THE LL FLOW CONTS TO
SLOWLY BACK MORE W-SW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND WAS
THE REASON FOR THE MOVEMENT OF THIS BAND. THIS WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SEE 345 PM UPDATE FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THIS.
645 PM UPDATE...
DROPPED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR ONONDAGA AND MADISON
COUNTIES AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY BACKS MORE WRLY IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LWR LAKE REGION. RADAR TRENDS ALSO SHOW THAT THIS BAND WAS
HEADING NORTHWARD. THE HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
PROGRESSION AND USED ITS REFLECTIVITY FIELDS AS A STARTING POINT
FOR MY HOURLY POPS. THESE HRRR FORECASTS WERE CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT JUST HASTEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN NC NY BY A FEW HOURS. FOR ONEIDA COUNTY
KEPT SRN 2/3 IN LES WARNING WHICH IS DUE TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM AND
THE NRN 1/3 EXPIRES BY 1 AM. THESE ENDING TIMES MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND CONT TO WATCH PROGRESSION
OF LES BANDS. I CAN SEE AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE INCHES IN SRN ONEIDA
AND MAYBE 3-5 INCHES ADDITIONAL IN NW ONEIDA CO. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SCT CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT FROM WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT
WAVE. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON TUESDAY/S
LIGHT SNOW EVENT.
300 PM UPDATE...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TARGETING OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY STATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STILL TOO
FAR SOUTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE BAND...WHICH IS A TYPICAL BIAS.
EXCEPT...THIS TIME THEY WERE VERY MUCH IN ERROR. THE CANADIAN LAM
AND GEM SEEMED TO DO THE BEST AND WERE LEANED ON. THE WESTERN HALF
OF ONEIDA COUNTY WILL SEE THE MOST TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WITH 1-2
FEET EXPECTED. ALREADY HAD REPORTS EARLIER TODAY RANGING FROM
10-14 INCHES WITH ANOTHER 6-12 TO COME TONIGHT. THE EXTREME NRN
BORDER OF ONONDAGA AND MADISON WILL ALSO FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE
LAKE SNOWS...BUT AREAS SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY MAY ONLY SEE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
LAKE BAND LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA/NRN GTLKS. THIS WILL BRING A VERY SHORT
REPRIEVE FROM THE LAKE SNOW...BEFORE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WORKS
IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
BLUSTERY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
300 PM...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE
MID- ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY...WITH A BIT OF A FURTHER SOUTH TREND
TO THE SNOW SHIELD THAN EARLIER RUNS. UPPER TROF AND WARM ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD STILL BRING LIGHT SNOW EVERYWHERE
IN CNY/NEPA. THIS LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THOSE HIGH PROBABILITY EVENTS
WITH LOW QPF...SO WILL STILL HIT IT WITH CAT POPS AND CALL IT PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW TO ILLUSTRATE THE MINIMAL IMPACT AND ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. WITH DENDRITE ZONE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
ONLY WEAK LIFT EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT ZONE...ACCUMS RIGHT NOW ARE ON
THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR SO.
THE BIGGER STORY THIS PERIOD IS THE IMPENDING ARCTIC FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AND RESULTING COLD SNAP THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
PATTERN HAS ALL THE MARKINGS OF A SNOW SQUALL EVENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT EITHER...LIFTS AN EXISTING LAKE BAND OFF
LAKE ONTARIO AND DRIVES IT SOUTHWARD...OR TAPS INTO
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE PRIOR TO THE FROPA. MODEL SOUNDING
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND THE BTV SNOW SQUALL TOOL IS JUST AS IMPRESSIVE. WILL
INTRODUCE THIS SNOW SQUALL HAZARD INTO OUR HAZ WX OUTLOOK PRODUCT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO TRAVEL AS A RESULT OF QUICK
HITTING SNOWS AND POOR VSBYS.
SOME LAKE RESPONSE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT
ATMOSPHERE DOES BECOME SYNOPTICALLY MOISTURE STARVED AND COLDER
THAN THE DENDRITE PRODUCTION ZONE...SO ACCUMS MAY BE LIMITED.
BLUSTERY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR WILL NATURALLY COMBINE FOR
PROBLEMATIC WIND CHILLS...AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST VALUES DO
SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA WITH READINGS COLDER THAN 15 BELOW. A MARGINAL WIND
CHILL WARNING EXISTS FOR OUR NATURALLY COLDER EASTERN ZONES BY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...JUST ANOTHER ADDITION TO THE HAZ WX
OUTLOOK PRODUCT BUT FCST TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
WATCHES...WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.
TEMPS COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND FOLLOWED A
MULTI-MODEL BLEND ON TEMPS/DWPTS/WIND AND SKY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.
LOWERED THU NGT MIN TEMPS SINCE THU MAX TEMPS COLDER. ENTIRE
PERIOD COLDER THAN AVERAGE WITH LAKE EFFECT AND A CLIPPER FRIDAY
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND BETTER LAKE EFFECT
WILL STAY IN THE NORTHERN THREE COUNTIES INCLUDING SYR AND RME.
QUESTIONS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT CLIPPER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY SO FOR NOW HAVE A GENERIC 20 POP FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LFTG NWRD THRU RME ATTM. XPCT A CPL HRS OF
IFR AT RME FLWD BY VFR. ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME SCT LGT SNOW SHWRS
OFF THE TAIL END OF THE ERIE BAND AT THE NY STATIONS. VFR CONDS
WILL CONT INTO EARLY TUE WHEN A SHRT WV MVG THRU THE OH VLY BRINGS
WIDESPREAD MAINLY LGT SNOW TO THE REGION. MVFR CONDS SHD PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE SNOW WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF OCNL IFR CONDS
BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFT 18Z WITH A RETURN TO GNRL
VFR AND SCT SNOW SHWRS IN CAA BHD THE WV...THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT/WED...LAKE EFFECT -SHSN BRINGING RESTRICTIONS TO NY
TERMINALS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
THU...MAINLY VFR BUT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE KSYR-RME IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THU NGT/FRI/SAT...ANOTHER CLIPPER BRINGING RESTRICTIONS IN -SHSN
THU NGT WITH LAKE EFFECT -SHSN OVR NY TERMINALS FRI/SAT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/JAB/RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN/JAB/RRM
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
157 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER WILL BRING A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ARCTIC COLD WILL
GRIP THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBZERO WIND
CHILLS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHIELD OF STEADY LGT SNOW ASSOC WITH
APPROACHING ALBERTA CLIPPER ABOUT TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST PA AS
OF 06Z. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION AND LATEST RAP/HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD SOMERSET CO BY 08Z THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY
NEWRD...REACHING THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BTWN 09Z-12Z.
BLEND OF MDL GUIDANCE WITH HIGHEST WEIGHT TO LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS
SNOW AMTS BY 12Z RANGING FROM 2-3 INCHES OVR PARTS OF SOMERSET
CO...TO JUST A DUSTING EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER. THICKENING CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY MORE OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
BY DAWN RANGING THE SINGLE DIGITS OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE TEENS
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST TIMING SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL BE
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS THE WEAK SYSTEM SPEEDS OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. THE EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS A LOT MORE
FAVORABLE THAN THE MORNING COMMUTE.
DID SOME TWEAKING OF THE QPF/SNOWFALL TOTALS EXPECTED BASED ON
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS FOR OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT TO RESULT IN AMOUNTS BTWN 3-5 INCHES OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATION SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE LEAST OVER THE
NY BORDER COUNTIES...FURTHEST FROM TRACK OF CLIPPER. HAVE EXPANDED
WINT WX ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BASED AMTS
CLOSE TO CRITERIA AND ALSO IMPACT TO THE AM COMMUTE.
CLIMATOLOGY OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS IS FOR SNOW/WATER RATIOS CLOSE TO
20 TO 1...AND AN EXAMINATION OF MDL TIME SECTIONS SUPPORTS A DRY
AND FLUFFY SNOW...WITH BULK OF LIFT OCCURING WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS OVR THE NW MTNS TO MID
20S OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
VERY COLD NW FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR /-20 TO -25C AT 850MB/ OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE WRN
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS WED-WED NITE. VERY STEEP LOW-MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ENHANCE THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...WHICH SHOULD BE QUITE FLUFFY GIVEN VERY HIGH SNOW:LIQUID
RATIOS. BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNAL WWD WITH SUPPORT FROM
THEIR ROBUST MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLENDED PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL
GUIDANCE HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY IN THE PERENNIAL SNOWBELT REGION IN NW WARREN COUNTY TO
THE WEST OF RT219.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WINDS AND THE CORRESPONDING LAKE EFFECT SHOULD CUT OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TILT
POSITIVELY AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD BRING CLOSER
TO NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AND
WEAKER SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...THOUGH IT HAS
CONSIDERABLY LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT...SO ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY. AS THIS TROUGH LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST THE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT MORE TO THE SW DUE TO A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL IN
FAIR AGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
COLD...THOUGH SLOWLY WARMING. TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB TO NEAR TO
ABOVE FREEZING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH THICKENING HIGH-MID LEVEL
CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE AIRSPACE IN ADVANCE OF FAST MOVG
CLIPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE MID MS VLY.
THE CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING A QUICK-HITTING 6-9HR PERIOD OF SNOW
AND IFR CONDS TO THE REGION DURING THE PREDAWN AND MORNING HOURS
ON TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR SUGGESTS
A SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL TO THE SNOW THAN IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED
IN THE 00Z TAFS. THEREFORE WILL SPEED UP TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SNOW
WITH THE 03Z UPDATE. AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
REINVIGORATE LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WRN 1/3
OF THE AIRSPACE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR LKLY AT JST/BFD.
GUSTY 20-30KT WNW WINDS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE AIRSPACE. THE
COLD NW FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING REDUCED FLYING CONDS
TO THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...MVFR/IFR WITH -SHSN WEST. VFR/MVFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SAT...IMPROVING CONDS WITH -SHSN ENDING N/W.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ004-005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/RXR/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1110 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DROP WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE
AREA AS FORCING AND ATTENDANT SNOW HAS QUICKLY SHIFTED SOUTHEAST.
HAVE ALSO ADDED WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF BLOWING
SNOW TO THE GRIDS.
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS WIND CHILLS FALL TO 35 TO 40 BELOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AS A BROAD AREA
OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING OVER
ALL BUT FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSIFYING 700 MB FRONT AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING ENHANCED
RETURNS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA...ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL WITH WHERE MODEL PROGGED
FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO BE STRONGEST. EXPECT ENHANCEMENT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SLIDES
THROUGH OUR AREA. THE RAP DOES INDICATE SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY
ABOVE THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION FOR LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A NARROWER BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW THROUGH NORTHWESTERN IOWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR CURRENT
SNOWFALL GRIDS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THE RANGE OF
15 TO 25:1 IN A DEEPER DENDRITIC LAYER COULD RESULT IN HOURLY
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH TO 1 1/2 INCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FORCING BEGINS TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING. FORECASTED SNOWFALL
TOTALS STILL LOOKING AT JUST EITHER SIDE OF 6 INCHES ORIENTED FROM
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR THEN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA...TRENDING UPWARD TO AROUND 7 INCHES IN PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. BLOWING SNOW SHOULD ONLY BE A RELATIVELY MINOR
ISSUE WITH WINDS STAYING IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY END BY
MID EVENING AS FRONTAL FORCING WEAKENS AND THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST. IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. DO BEGIN TO SEE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET LATER TONIGHT...BUT ELECTED TO HOLD
OFF ON THAT UNTIL CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE.
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AS
THE NEXT CANADIAN WAVE BEGINS TO DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH. MOST OF
THE INCREASE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...AND
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES THERE WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC LIFT FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
SKIES WILL CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG AND THE
ARCTIC RESURGENCE POURS INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE WINTER SO FAR. WINDS BRINGING THIS SURGE WILL BE STRONG TO
CAUSE SOME BLOWING OF THE STILL FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL MENTION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE.
SKIES WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY CLEAR. HOWEVER THE BIG NEWS WILL BE
THE WIND CHILLS DIVING TO WARNING LEVELS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
EXCEPT TO ONLY ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
AREA. AFTER COORDINATION AND LOCAL INPUT...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ON THESE HIGHLIGHTS UNTIL THE CURRENT WARNING AND ADVISORY TONE
DOWN. HOWEVER...THOUGH IT WAS ALREADY BEEN COLD OF COURSE...THIS
IS GOING TO BE THE COLDEST SHOT OF THE WINTER SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A QUICK TURN TO WARMING...THOUGH IT WILL
GET TO THE SURFACE IN ONLY A VERY LIMITED MEASURE. A BAND OF WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA WITH THIS WARMING AND EXIT
AS THE NEXT COLD AIR SHOT ARRIVES. THE TRANSITORY NATURE OF THE
WARMING LEADS TO A MENTION OF ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL BE NOT AS COLD...MOSTLY TEENS ABOVE ZERO...AS DELAYED
MIXING FROM THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WARMING HELPS TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.
THE ACCOMPANYING COLD AIR REINFORCEMENT WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WIND
CHILL EVENT WITH A COLD DAY FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL THEN SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA WITH RELATIVELY MINOR WAVES AND BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT
AS FRIGID TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WILL
MENTION SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW CENTRAL AND SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH...WHICH SHOULD RULE WITH DRY WEATHER AND
MODESTLY COLD TEMPERATURES AS MENTIONED ABOVE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015
ONLY PATCHY MVFR STRATUS IS MOVING THROUGH THE SIOUX FALLS
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CEILINGS
BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FEET AGL IMPACTED OUR TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. BUT IT SHOULD BE ISOLATED
ENOUGH THAT WE DID NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF IT TAFS EXCEPT FOR
AN HOUR AT KSUX RIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY SHOW
SOME 05Z OBS WITH CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 500 FEET IN THE HEART OF
NORTHWEST IOWA. HOWEVER THE SATELLITE IS CLEAR AND THAT IS LIKELY
ICE CRYSTALS. EXPECTING VFR ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ONCE AGAIN PATCHY TO AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS MAY ACCOMPANY THE NEW COLD AIR MASS...SO INCLUDED A
SCATTERED GROUP IN THE TAF SITES OF 2500 FEET AGL AS A HEDGE.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ038>040-
052>056-059>062-065>067-071.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ050-057-058-
063-064-068>070.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
081-089-090-097-098.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-032.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ031.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1043 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
TODAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND A
VERY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH A
QUICK MOVING ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER
COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST SETTLING OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAY MOVE CLOSE
TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST 06Z NAM SHOWING FGEN FORCING ACROSS DELMARVA AND THIS HAS
BEEN COINCIDENTAL WITH THE 170KT JET STREAK AND THE APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE. THE BAND OF MODERATE SNOW HAS MADE IT ACROSS WEST VA
AND LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZING IN OUR CWA IN THAT AREA. HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A DECOUPLING OF THESE FORCES DURING THE LATE MORNING
ONWARD. SO FAR WE HAVE REPORTS AS HIGH AS AROUND AN INCH. GIVEN
WHAT IS ONGOING WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE, WE WILL BE UPPING AMOUNTS
ESSENTIALLY TO 2-4" ON OUR SIDE OF DELMARVA, WITH CHANCES ARE
ADJACENT PARTS OF NJ MAY END CLOSER TO THE HIGH END OF THE 1-2".
FARTHER NORTH PWATS ARE NOT AS HIGH AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE
STAIR STEP DOWN LOOK IN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN THE VISIBLE SATL
IMAGERY. BUT A SECOND SHORT WAVE HAS STILL TO MOVE THROUGH, SO
ALBEIT LIGHTER, SNOW SHOULD COULD ON FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES IN ACCUMS HERE.
TU NESDIS FOR INFORMATION.
14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS
DIVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA-ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A WEAK REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE MARKED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST. BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE FEATURES
WILL TRACK ALMOST DUE EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE MASON-DIXON LINE WHERE THE BEST AND MOST PERSISTENT LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS FGEN FORCING IS PROGGED. WE
ALSO DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST NJ.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF I-76 IN PA AND I-195 IN NJ. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE
SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY ULTIMATELY FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
MANY LOCATIONS, ADVERSE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL OCCUR WITH SNOW
COINCIDING WITH MORNING RUSH HOUR. ALSO, SNOW WILL EASILY ACCUMULATE
ON UNTREATED ROADS GIVEN TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE CLIPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS HEELS AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT. LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH IS EXPECTED
TO BE EXITING EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD BACK
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING WESTERLY WIND OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
INITIALLY LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS BUT
DID ADJUST IT DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES AFTER FACTORING THE FRESH
(ALBEIT LIGHT) SNOW COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM. THIS TROUGHING BEGINS
TO WEAKEN AS ITS BASE FLATTENS OUT A BIT TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH
PACIFIC RIDGING BREAKING DOWN ALLOWING A BETTER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO TAKE OVER.
WEDNESDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, LIKE A MAJORITY OF THE HIGHS
WE HAVE SEEN THIS SEASON THUS FAR, WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY LATER WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE CENTER
STILL REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED CAPE, AROUND 20 TO 40
J/KG, COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE
COMING OFF THE LAKES, WITH WATER TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE FREEZING,
SO SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PREVALENT DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE, THOUGH TOUGH TO RESOLVE EVEN
AT THIS JUNCTURE, FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL OR TWO TO OCCUR ALONG THE
ARCTIC FRONT. HAVE ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING, MODERATE SNOW, FOR A
FEW HOURS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE OROGRAPHY WILL HELP
ENHANCE LIFT. DO HAVE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS, WITH UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POCONOS, BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT THE
SNOW WILL/CAN OCCUR IN QUICK BURSTS SIGNIFICANTLY DROPPING VISIBILITIES. WILL
HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE HEAVIER SQUALLS IN THE HWO ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...AT THIS POINT.
BESIDES ISSUES WITH SNOW WILL BE THE COLDER AIRMASS USHERED IN
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS WE STATED ABOVE WE WILL HAVE VERY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...COULD EASILY MIX UPWARDS OF 700MB,
OR POSSIBLY HIGHER IN A LOT OF PLACES. AT LEAST 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF
WIND RESIDE AT THESE LEVELS SO THE GUSTS WILL BE RUNNING QUITE HIGH
AND GIVEN THE MIXING HEIGHT THEY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE LONGER
DURATION GUSTS...POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES FOR THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY LOOK PRETTY SOLID
AT THIS POINT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON EXPECTED, THUS FAR. 850MB
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO -20 TO -25C MAKING FOR HIGHS NOT REACHING
THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND QUITE POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
TEENS ACROSS THE METRO AREA...LOW-20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...NEXT ARCTIC FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECTING MUCH LESS FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FRONT AND WITH LESS MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SO WE`LL HAVE A
VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY
ACROSS THE NORTH BUT SHOULD BECOME DRY BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-PRESSURE TO DEVELOP INVOF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE...BUT IT/S
TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY FURTHER DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS AS OF 1530Z, THE HEAVIEST SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT IS MOVING OFF THE COAST, WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING
AVIATION CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THRU MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TODAY/THIS EVE, BEFORE INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KT LATE
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN
-SNSH...PARTICULARLY AT ABE AND RDG. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST 30
TO 35 KNOTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND SNSH. SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (AOB 15 KT) TODAY. REDUCED VSBYS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING IN SNOW.
W-NW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 20 KT. SCA CONDITIONS (BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS) MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BUT A HEADLINE WAS NOT
ISSUED TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH THE GALE WARNING ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GALES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GALE FORCE
WINDS COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
WATERS COULD LEAD TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
THU NIGHT THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT W/THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE...
PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO BLOWOUT
TIDES LATE WED INTO THU. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TIDAL DEPARTURES
COULD APPROACH TWO FEET...PARTICULARLY IN DELAWARE BAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 8TH. MOST APPEAR OUT OF REACH.
ALLENTOWN..............-3F IN 1942
ATLANTIC CITY...........2F IN 1981
GEORGETOWN..............10F IN 2014 AND 1970
MOUNT POCONO...........-13F IN 1950
PHILADELPHIA............2F IN 1970
READING.................2F IN 1942
TRENTON................-12F IN 1866
WILMINGTON..............0F IN 1970
LOWEST TEMPERATURES LAST JANUARY (2014)
ALLENTOWN..............-4F ON THE 4TH
ATLANTIC CITY..........-3F ON THE 30TH AND 4TH
GEORGETOWN.............-5F ON THE 30TH
MOUNT POCONO...........-9F ON THE 22ND AND 3RD
PHILADELPHIA............4F ON THE 7TH AND 22ND
READING.................0F ON THE 7TH
TRENTON................-1F ON THE 4TH
WILMINGTON..............3F ON THE 30TH, 22ND AND 7TH.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ060-061-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN/MIKETTA
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
TODAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND A
VERY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH A
QUICK MOVING ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER
COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST SETTLING OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAY MOVE CLOSE
TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST 06Z NAM SHOWING FGEN FORCING ACROSS DELMARVA AND THIS HAS
BEEN COINCIDENTAL WITH THE 170KT JET STREAK AND THE APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE. THE BAND OF MODERATE SNOW HAS MADE IT ACROSS WEST VA
AND LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZING IN OUR CWA IN THAT AREA. HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A DECOUPLING OF THESE FORCES DURING THE LATE MORNING
ONWARD. SO FAR WE HAVE REPORTS AS HIGH AS AROUND AN INCH. GIVEN
WHAT IS ONGOING WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE, WE WILL BE UPPING AMOUNTS
ESSENTIALLY TO 2-4" ON OUR SIDE OF DELMARVA, WITH CHANCES ARE
ADJACENT PARTS OF NJ MAY END CLOSER TO THE HIGH END OF THE 1-2".
FARTHER NORTH PWATS ARE NOT AS HIGH AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE
STAIR STEP DOWN LOOK IN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN THE VISIBLE SATL
IMAGERY. BUT A SECOND SHORT WAVE HAS STILL TO MOVE THROUGH, SO
ALBEIT LIGHTER, SNOW SHOULD COULD ON FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES IN ACCUMS HERE.
TU NESDIS FOR INFORMATION.
14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS
DIVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA-ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A WEAK REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE MARKED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST. BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE FEATURES
WILL TRACK ALMOST DUE EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE MASON-DIXON LINE WHERE THE BEST AND MOST PERSISTENT LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS FGEN FORCING IS PROGGED. WE
ALSO DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST NJ.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF I-76 IN PA AND I-195 IN NJ. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE
SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY ULTIMATELY FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
MANY LOCATIONS, ADVERSE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL OCCUR WITH SNOW
COINCIDING WITH MORNING RUSH HOUR. ALSO, SNOW WILL EASILY ACCUMULATE
ON UNTREATED ROADS GIVEN TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE CLIPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS HEELS AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT. LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH IS EXPECTED
TO BE EXITING EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD BACK
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING WESTERLY WIND OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
INITIALLY LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS BUT
DID ADJUST IT DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES AFTER FACTORING THE FRESH
(ALBEIT LIGHT) SNOW COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM. THIS TROUGHING BEGINS
TO WEAKEN AS ITS BASE FLATTENS OUT A BIT TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH
PACIFIC RIDGING BREAKING DOWN ALLOWING A BETTER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO TAKE OVER.
WEDNESDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, LIKE A MAJORITY OF THE HIGHS
WE HAVE SEEN THIS SEASON THUS FAR, WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY LATER WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE CENTER
STILL REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED CAPE, AROUND 20 TO 40
J/KG, COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE
COMING OFF THE LAKES, WITH WATER TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE FREEZING,
SO SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PREVALENT DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE, THOUGH TOUGH TO RESOLVE EVEN
AT THIS JUNCTURE, FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL OR TWO TO OCCUR ALONG THE
ARCTIC FRONT. HAVE ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING, MODERATE SNOW, FOR A
FEW HOURS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE OROGRAPHY WILL HELP
ENHANCE LIFT. DO HAVE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS, WITH UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POCONOS, BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT THE
SNOW WILL/CAN OCCUR IN QUICK BURSTS SIGNIFICANTLY DROPPING VISIBILITIES. WILL
HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE HEAVIER SQUALLS IN THE HWO ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...AT THIS POINT.
BESIDES ISSUES WITH SNOW WILL BE THE COLDER AIRMASS USHERED IN
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS WE STATED ABOVE WE WILL HAVE VERY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...COULD EASILY MIX UPWARDS OF 700MB,
OR POSSIBLY HIGHER IN A LOT OF PLACES. AT LEAST 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF
WIND RESIDE AT THESE LEVELS SO THE GUSTS WILL BE RUNNING QUITE HIGH
AND GIVEN THE MIXING HEIGHT THEY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE LONGER
DURATION GUSTS...POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES FOR THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY LOOK PRETTY SOLID
AT THIS POINT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON EXPECTED, THUS FAR. 850MB
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO -20 TO -25C MAKING FOR HIGHS NOT REACHING
THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND QUITE POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
TEENS ACROSS THE METRO AREA...LOW-20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...NEXT ARCTIC FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECTING MUCH LESS FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FRONT AND WITH LESS MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SO WE`LL HAVE A
VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY
ACROSS THE NORTH BUT SHOULD BECOME DRY BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-PRESSURE TO DEVELOP INVOF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE...BUT IT/S
TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY FURTHER DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE OVERNIGHT
WILL EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE EARLY FOR THE
PHL AREA TERMINALS AND MID MORNING FOR ABE/TTN. VSBYS WILL
DETERIORATE QUICKLY AFTER ONSET IN STEADY SNOW. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR A PERIOD OF BELOW VSBYS UNDER ONE-MILE THIS MORNING. CIGS MOST
LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AROUND OR JUST AFTER NOON
BUT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THRU MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY/THIS EVE, BEFORE INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KT LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN
-SNSH...PARTICULARLY AT ABE AND RDG. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST 30
TO 35 KNOTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND SNSH. SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (AOB 15 KT) TODAY. REDUCED VSBYS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING IN SNOW.
W-NW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 20 KT. SCA CONDITIONS (BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS) MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BUT A HEADLINE WAS NOT
ISSUED TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH THE GALE WARNING ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GALES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GALE FORCE
WINDS COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
WATERS COULD LEAD TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
THU NIGHT THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT W/THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE...
PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO BLOWOUT
TIDES LATE WED INTO THU. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TIDAL DEPARTURES
COULD APPROACH TWO FEET...PARTICULARLY IN DELAWARE BAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 8TH. MOST APPEAR OUT OF REACH.
ALLENTOWN..............-3F IN 1942
ATLANTIC CITY...........2F IN 1981
GEORGETOWN..............10F IN 2014 AND 1970
MOUNT POCONO...........-13F IN 1950
PHILADELPHIA............2F IN 1970
READING.................2F IN 1942
TRENTON................-12F IN 1866
WILMINGTON..............0F IN 1970
LOWEST TEMPERATURES LAST JANUARY (2014)
ALLENTOWN..............-4F ON THE 4TH
ATLANTIC CITY..........-3F ON THE 30TH AND 4TH
GEORGETOWN.............-5F ON THE 30TH
MOUNT POCONO...........-9F ON THE 22ND AND 3RD
PHILADELPHIA............4F ON THE 7TH AND 22ND
READING.................0F ON THE 7TH
TRENTON................-1F ON THE 4TH
WILMINGTON..............3F ON THE 30TH, 22ND AND 7TH.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ060-061-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
716 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 715AM UPDATE...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH RADAR APPEARS TO BE OVERSHOOTING SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OHIO...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES IN THAT AREA AND LATEST HRRR ALSO SHOWS WESTERN EDGE
OF SNOW QUICKLY REACHING THE REGION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AREA OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST AS MAIN SHORTWAVE
RUSHES INTO EASTERN PA AND SURFACE WAVE WASHES OUT. WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF KEEPING SNOW GOING IN THE RIDGES WITH GOOD UP-SLOPE
FLOW AND COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE ARCTIC
FRONT. COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GOOD LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED EVENT
IS SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A DUAL LAKE FETCH EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ERODING AS
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND ARCTIC POOL DRIFTS NORTHEAST.
THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AND COLD WITH MORE SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS THROUGH AND ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH SOME RELATIVE MODERATION
INDICATED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM MAY GENERATE MORE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES...EARLY ON FRIDAY. USED A GFS AND HPC
BLEND TO DEPICT THAT SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR IN -SN CONTINUES AS SHORTWAVE AXIS
APPROACHES AREA. BACK EDGE OF STEADY SNOW EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z...WITH SOME LINGERING -SHSN
BEHIND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES. CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MVFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ACHIEVING VFR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT AS ARCTIC BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND PASSES...WITH NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS. IFR COULD RETURN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD IN THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT.
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN LIKELY AS COLD FLOW ACRS THE GREAT LAKES FUELS
STRATOCU AND SNOW SHWRS INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ020-021-029-031-073-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1000 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2015
MOST FORECAST ASPECTS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. ANTICIPATE A BIT
STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN FA BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AND LIKELY FALLING TEMPERATURES. ALONG
WITH THIS STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE RAP INDICATES 925MB
WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 45 KNOTS. THIS WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY...AND/OR MORE THAN JUST PATCHY BLOWING
BLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY. WILL WATCH WIND SPEEDS UPSTREAM
AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED...BUT AT THIS POINT THAT SEEMS
LIKE AN UNLIKELY OUTCOME (MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT AS STRONG).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2015
CLOUD TRENDS HARD TO FIGURE OUT THIS MORNING WITH CIRRUS MASKING
THE LOWER CLOUDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BKN CLOUDS TODAY EAST OF
A LANGDON TO KGFK TO KPKD LINE AND MORE SCT CONDITIONS WEST OF
THIS LINE. ANYONE UNDER THE THICKER CLOUDS MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES.
TEMPS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO RISE UNDER THE CLOUDS. STATIONS UP
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER HAD RISEN TO ZERO AS OF 6AM WITH THE
COLDER READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ADJUSTED THE TEMP CURVE FOR
TODAY TO GO A LITTLE WARMER AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH. LOOKING
AT NEW WIND CHILL VALUES AFTER ADJUSTING THESE TEMPS SHOW WHAT
PREVIOUS GRIDS SHOWED...THERE COULD BE SOME TIMES WHEN TRUE WIND
CHILL CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET TODAY. ONE PORTION OF A COUNTY
COULD HAVE A WIND CHILL OF 28 BELOW WHILE ANOTHER IS 17 BELOW. ALL
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS. THEREFORE WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS IS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
SECONDLY IT WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS LATER TODAY AND AGAIN ON
THU/THU NIGHT. AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING THERE WAS A BAND OF CLOUD
COVER MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN FA. TEMPS HAD RISEN A BIT IN
THE CLOUDY AREA AND WERE COLDEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE
IT WAS CLEAR. WINDS WERE PRETTY STEADY FROM THE WEST TO SW KEEPING
WIND CHILLS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR TODAY EXPECT THE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH TO SLOWLY SINK TO THE SOUTH/SE. THERE HAVE BEEN
A FEW FLURRIES REPORTED IN SOUTHERN CANADA UNDER THESE CLOUDS AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE AS THESE CLOUDS SINK INTO THIS FA. UPPER WAVE
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH AND MOVE INTO THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP KEEP THESE FLURRIES AROUND. 925MB TEMPS
WILL START OUT THE DAY AROUND -20C IN THE NORTH AND WILL FALL TO
ABOUT -26C BY 00Z WED. 925MB WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL RISE TO
25 TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE EXPECT
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND PATCHES OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN
AREAS THAT HAVE SNOW COVER. THIS MAINLY BEING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. THE GUSTY WINDS ALSO MEAN THE FA WILL STAY IN WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR TODAY. THE SOUTHERN FA IS EXPECTED TO
RISE OUT OF CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AFTER
COORDINATING WITH BIS DECIDED TO JUST RUN THE ADVISORY FOR ALL
AREAS TODAY DESPITE THIS. AS TEMPS FALL AND WINDS STAY UP TONIGHT
WILL TRANSITION THE ADVISORY OVER TO A WIND CHILL WARNING IN ALL
AREAS. WILL EXTEND THIS OUT TO 18Z WED FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2015
QUIET BUT COLD CONTINUES UNTIL LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...WHEN
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE FA. NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOW BUT AROUND AN INCH OF LIGHT POWDERY SNOW
IS POSSIBLE. BIGGER CONCERN IS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THU/THU NIGHT. WITH FALLING SNOW THIS
TIME...THIS EVENT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN VSBY PROBLEMS DUE TO
BLSN. THESE WINDS WILL STAY UP INTO THU NIGHT.
FOR FRI THROUGH MON...IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATING. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL STILL BE COLD TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...AND TEMPS COULD BE COLDER THAN PROGGED
AT NIGHT IF IT IS CLEAR. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THOUGH WITH NO MAJOR
STORMS ON THE HORIZON...AND THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING EAST BY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2015
BROUGHT THE 5000-7000 FT CEILINGS TO KGFK/KTVF/KBJI AND ONLY WENT
SCT AT KDVL AND KFAR. THIS OF COURSE WILL BE MONITORED AND
ADJUSTED LATER IF NEED BE. GOOD THING IS THAT THESE ARE STILL IN
THE VFR RANGE SO NOT ESPECIALLY CRITICAL TODAY. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. BIGGER THING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. ALREADY SEEING A BIT
OF A JUMP AT KDVL BUT THE REAL GUSTINESS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND OR AFTER 18Z TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
LIKE PREVIOUS TAF SET...DID NOT MENTION ANY REDUCED VSBYS DUE TO
BLSN AT THIS POINT. IF WINDS GET A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
SOME REDUCTION COULD BE POSSIBLE...AND MAINLY AT KDVL AND KGFK.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR NDZ049-052-053.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ049-052-
053.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.
MN...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR MNZ029>032-040.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ029>032-
040.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027-028.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022>024-027-028.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
136 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW CONTINUING FROM THE THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN PACE ACROSS OUR
CWA ON EASTERN EXTENT OF LEE TROUGH CENTERED OVER COLORADO.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO CWA TONIGHT.
REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES/TYPES...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED
TO ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT. BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT IS
ADVERTISED IN THE WEST WHERE MODEL QPF IS SHOWING BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL...SO I RAISED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN COLORADO COUNTIES
09-12Z PERIOD. WHILE SATURATION DOES OCCUR BELOW 700MB...MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS WEAK AND THOUGHTS ARE ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. PRECIP TYPE IS ANOTHER CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
BEGINS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND SURFACE FRONT THIS EVENING...YET TEMP
PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCOOLED LIQUID. SATURATION AT TEMPS BELOW -8C
DOESNT OCCUR OVER OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 09Z. I COULD SEE VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIP...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...POSSIBLY SLEET (SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER IS AT LEAST 2500 FT DEEP). SINCE PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT I AM NOT THINKING THIS WOULD AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT I CANT RULE OUT SOME SLICK SPOTS
DEVELOPING DUE TO A LIGHT GLAZE. REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...I CANT
SEE OUR CWA RECEIVING MUCH MORE THAN ONE INCH AND THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE FAR WEST. SNOW MAY LINGER IN EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD
COMPLETELY TAPPER OFF BY THE AROUND MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER BEST PRESSURE RISES QUICKLY TRANSITION SOUTH.
BY TIME PRECIP IS OCCURRING I DO NOT THINK WE WOULD SEE STRONG
ENOUGH GUSTS TO CREATE A BLOWING SNOW THREAT. MAYBE MINOR DRIFTING
SNOW DUE TO WINDS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE (MAINLY IN EASTERN
COLORADO).
REGARDING TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS...VERY COLD AIR MASS MOVES BACK
OVER THE CWA AFTER 06Z...AND HOW LOW TEMPS GET WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY LIMITED RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED
MIXING DUE TO POSSIBLE PRECIP/WIND. I STILL EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MORNING TEMPS AROUND ZERO OR COLDER IN OUR NE CWA (MCCOOK/NORTON).
I THINK IT IS MORE LIKELY WE SEE A BIGGER DROP OFF IN WINDS
SIMILAR TO NAM SURFACE WINDS...AS SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WHILE WIND CHILLS MAY BE AROUND -15F...BUT I AM NOT CONFIDENT
THIS WOULD BE WIDESPREAD OR PERSISTENT.
WITH ALL THIS SAID...NO ADVISORY (WINTER WEATHER OR WIND CHILL)
WILL BE ISSUED DURING THIS UPDATE...BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FREEZING PRECIP COVERAGE AND WIND CHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS. WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRIEFLY BENEFIT FROM A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MID
AFTERNOON BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER FORCING
WILL BE QUITE WEAK...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 INCLUDING
NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN
-6C AND -10C THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND NOT REACH -12C UNTIL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO EXPECT A GENERAL TRANSITION FROM FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL MIXES OF ALL 3 POSSIBLE. EVEN THOUGH QPF
WILL BE VERY LIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITH THE
WINTRY MIX EXPECTED.
BEYOND FRIDAY...THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY INTO EASTERN
CANADA. NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE WEEKEND THEN TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TO NONE IN THIS
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL VERY SLOWLY MODERATE BUT REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT AND
POTENTIAL SNOW AT BOTH TERMINALS. BETTER SNOW CHANCES WILL BE AT
KGLD...EVEN THEN CONFIDENCE STILL WASNT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION
DURING THIS UPDATE. BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT WILL LIKELY BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. IT DOES LOOK LIKE MVFR...IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. BETTER IFR CHANCES IN THE WEST. I AM CONCERN
ABOUT POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN SO NO MENTION DURING THIS TAF ISSUANCE. IF WINTRY PRECIP
WERE TO DEVELOP I WOULD EXPECT VIS TO DROP AT LEAST INTO THE 1-3SM
RANGE. ALL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 12Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS BASED ON TIMING OF BETTER COVERAGE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
134 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW CONTINUING FROM THE THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN PACE ACROSS OUR
CWA ON EASTERN EXTENT OF LEE TROUGH CENTERED OVER COLORADO.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO CWA TONIGHT.
REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES/TYPES...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED
TO ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT. BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT IS
ADVERTISED IN THE WEST WHERE MODEL QPF IS SHOWING BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL...SO I RAISED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN COLORADO COUNTIES
09-12Z PERIOD. WHILE SATURATION DOES OCCUR BELOW 700MB...MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS WEAK AND THOUGHTS ARE ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. PRECIP TYPE IS ANOTHER CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
BEGINS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND SURFACE FRONT THIS EVENING...YET TEMP
PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCOOLED LIQUID. SATURATION AT TEMPS BELOW -8C
DOESNT OCCUR OVER OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 09Z. I COULD SEE VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIP...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...POSSIBLY SLEET (SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER IS AT LEAST 2500 FT DEEP). SINCE PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT I AM NOT THINKING THIS WOULD AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT I CANT RULE OUT SOME SLICK SPOTS
DEVELOPING DUE TO A LIGHT GLAZE. REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...I CANT
SEE OUR CWA RECEIVING MUCH MORE THAN ONE INCH AND THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE FAR WEST. SNOW MAY LINGER IN EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD
COMPLETELY TAPPER OFF BY THE AROUND MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER BEST PRESSURE RISES QUICKLY TRANSITION SOUTH.
BY TIME PRECIP IS OCCURRING I DO NOT THINK WE WOULD SEE STRONG
ENOUGH GUSTS TO CREATE A BLOWING SNOW THREAT. MAYBE MINOR DRIFTING
SNOW DUE TO WINDS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE (MAINLY IN EASTERN
COLORADO).
REGARDING TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS...VERY COLD AIR MASS MOVES BACK
OVER THE CWA AFTER 06Z...AND HOW LOW TEMPS GET WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY LIMITED RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED
MIXING DUE TO POSSIBLE PRECIP/WIND. I STILL EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MORNING TEMPS AROUND ZERO OR COLDER IN OUR NE CWA (MCCOOK/NORTON).
I THINK IT IS MORE LIKELY WE SEE A BIGGER DROP OFF IN WINDS
SIMILAR TO NAM SURFACE WINDS...AS SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WHILE WIND CHILLS MAY BE AROUND -15F...BUT I AM NOT CONFIDENT
THIS WOULD BE WIDESPREAD OR PERSISTENT.
WITH ALL THIS SAID...NO ADVISORY (WINTER WEATHER OR WIND CHILL)
WILL BE ISSUED DURING THIS UPDATE...BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FREEZING PRECIP COVERAGE AND WIND CHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
OVERALL...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE QUIET IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY COMES FRIDAY...AND ACTIVE IS AN
OVERSTATEMENT. DURING THE DAY...THE CENTER OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
HIGH PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. ON FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUED
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SO
DECIDED TO MENTION LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. AT THIS
TIME...IT IS TOO TOUGH TO TELL WHETHER THE ICE GROWTH ZONE SATURATES
OR NOT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO FRIDAY
MORNING AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT. FURTHER
EAST...THERE MAY BE SOME PRECIPITATION BUT FORECAST LIFT APPEARS
WEAK. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
GUARANTEES ANOTHER COLD DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST BUT LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH BUT MOISTURE LOOKS MINIMAL AT
THIS TIME. THERE APPEARS TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN SHIFT BY
NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TAKES SHAPE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WOULD MEAN A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR INLAND THIS RIDGE PRESSES. THIS TREND SHOULD
NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IF IT WERE TO
OCCUR. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME AS THE
EUROPEAN DEVELOPS THE RIDGE EARLIER WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A RIDGE
WITH A CUT-OFF LOW PASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT AND
POTENTIAL SNOW AT BOTH TERMINALS. BETTER SNOW CHANCES WILL BE AT
KGLD...EVEN THEN CONFIDENCE STILL WASNT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION
DURING THIS UPDATE. BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT WILL LIKELY BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. IT DOES LOOK LIKE MVFR...IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. BETTER IFR CHANCES IN THE WEST. I AM CONCERN
ABOUT POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN SO NO MENTION DURING THIS TAF ISSUANCE. IF WINTRY PRECIP
WERE TO DEVELOP I WOULD EXPECT VIS TO DROP AT LEAST INTO THE 1-3SM
RANGE. ALL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 12Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS BASED ON TIMING OF BETTER COVERAGE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
427 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND
A BROAD TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN
WNW CYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UPPER MI WAS DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...A 1051 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER W
CNTRL CANADA RIDGING INTO THE PLAINS WAS SLOWLY BUILDING TO THE EAST
BRINGING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. UPSTREAM TEMPS OVER MUCH OF
NW ONTARIO RANGED FROM -5F TO -15F LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
320-340 FLOW LES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER THIS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A REINFORCING BATCH OF VERY COLD AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
-30C...RESULTING IN VERY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE...LAKE
INDUCED CAPE OVER 1K J/KG. HOWEVER....THE COLD WILL DROP THE DGZ
BELOW 3K FT...KEEPING SLR VALUES CLOSER TO 20/1. THE HIGHER RES
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV AND HEAVIEST LES
WILL DEVELOP INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI OVER ALGER COUNTY AND N
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS UP TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OVER THE WEST...THE SHORTER FETCH
AND LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO
THE 2 TO 6 INCH RANGE. AN ADVY WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY
EVEN THOUGH OVERALL AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE
EXPECTED. LOCATIONS NEAR BIG BAY AND EAST OF HARVEY COULD SEE SOME
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS. M-28 BETWEEN HARVEY AND MUNISING
COULD ALSO SEE SOME OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AS NW WINDS GUST
INTO THE 30-40 MPH RANGE NEAR THE SHORE.
A WIND CHILL WARNING WAS POSTED FOR THE INTERIOR WEST WITH WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO AROUND -35. THE STRONGER WINDS AND SOME LAKE
MODIFICATION WILL LIMIT TEMP FALL OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WITH MINS
IN THE -5F TO 10F RANGE. HOWEVER...THE 10-20 MPH WINDS WILL STILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LOWER WIND CHILLS TO AROUND -30...SOLIDLY INTO THE
ADVY RANGE(-25 TO -35). CONDITIONS WILL ONLY SLOWLY MODERATE WED
MORNING AS THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE.
AS WINDS BACK STEADILY INTO WED AFTERNOON...THE LES WILL SHIFT AND
DIMINISH OVER MOST LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER....A MORE
FAVORABLE FETCH INTO THE KEWEENAW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN LES
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY COVERING EASTERN CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE TROUGH IN PLACE...WAVES OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION AND LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN A LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY AND A HIGH IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT THE LAKE
EFFECT TO TRANSITION TO THE WESTERLY WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS...LARGELY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE EAST OF MUNISING. INVERSION HEIGHTS DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOK TO BE AROUND 6-7KFT AND IT APPEARS DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE OF THE LES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER.
A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA WILL STRENGTHEN A TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN DRAG
IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF STRONG BUT BRIEF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERIOD OF
LIKELY POPS AS THAT CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STILL THINK
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 0.5-2.0 INCH RANGE...BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON SNOW RATIOS AS SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE A VERY
DEEP CLOUD WITHIN THE DGZ WHICH COULD PRODUCE RATIOS OF 25-30 TO
ONE.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER...ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT WILL DEVELOP AS
850MB TEMPS FALL FROM -16C AT 18Z THURSDAY TO -26C BY 12Z FRIDAY
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE PRESENT AND
FAIRLY HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW
DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THE LAST COUPLE
OF EVENTS...EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO LEAD TO SNOW RATIOS AND FINER
FLAKES...THUS LEADING TO SNOW THAT IS EFFICIENT AT REDUCING
VISIBILITIES. AS A STARTING POINT...HAVE PUT 12HR AMOUNTS OF 2-4IN
FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS BELTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND IN THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AREAS ON FRIDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW WIND CHILLS...WITH
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE -20 TO -30 DEGREE
RANGE.
THE POCKET OF VERY COLD AIR WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LEADING TO A VERY SLOW MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES ALOFT
UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO
TRANSITION TO THE WESTERLY WIND AREAS ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER HIGH DROPS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL START TO DIMINISH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE FINAL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST-NORTHEAST. THAT WILL ALLOW A HIGH TO MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES ON TUESDAY...BUT KEEP A LINGERING RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE RIDGE...COMBINED WITH
MODERATING 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C...WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING
LES CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES STARTING TO TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
AT CMX..LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW LES.
WITH INCOMING VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR...SNOWFLAKES WILL BECOME
FINER/SMALLER AND VERY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS. COMBINED WITH
INCREASING WINDS/BLSN LATE AFTN/EVENING...EXPECT PREVAILING VLIFR
CONDITIONS BY EVENING. AT KIWD...VEERING WINDS WILL DROP CONDITIONS
FROM MVFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO IFR/LIFR...LATE IN THE AFTN AS
SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT UNDER
NW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTN...AND THEN IFR IN THE EVENING AS SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE
ALONG WITH SOME BLSN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...WITH
INTERMITTENT GALES. CURRENTLY HAVE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS
POSTED ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ACTIVE WEATHER FORECAST
WITH GALE EVENTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THE NW GALES DEVELOPING TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WRLY LATE WED
AND THEN DIMINISH ON THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THU
NIGHT INTO FRI WILL BRING THE NEXT PERIOD OF NW GALES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 1
PM EST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001>007-012-013-084-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001>003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR MIZ002-009.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR MIZ009>011.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005>007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ007-
013-014.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY
FOR LSZ240>251-263>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ243>245-248>251-
264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-
240>242-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY
FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
312 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/STORM TERM/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/AVIATION/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
WINDY AND COLD WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN
THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE.
THE COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. A SLOW WARM UP BEGINS SUNDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.STORM TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
I CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY I ISSUED AROUND NOON FOR THE
LAKE SHORE COUNTIES FROM AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (ARW...NMM...NAM AND AS FAR
OUT AS IT NOW GOES THE HRRR) ALL SHOW A DOMINANT SNOW BAND SETTING
UP FROM AROUND MUSKEGON THROUGH GRAND HAVEN THROUGH THE CITY OF
ALLEGAN AND THROUGH OSHTEMO BY 01 AM. THAT BAND ONLY VERY SLOWLY
ROTATES CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE BY 7 AM. FROM THERE IT REMAINS A
GOOD PART OF THE DAY ONLY TO ROTATES BACK INLAND SLIGHTLY LATE IN
THE DAY BUT BY THEN IT IS WEAKENING.
THE NAM...ARW...NMM...RAP AND HRRR ALL SHOW STRONG LIFT NEAR AND
JUST ABOVE THE DGZ... MOISTURE DEPTH TO 8000 FT...AND WINDS
NORTHWEST (310-320 DEGREES) WITH ONLY MINOR SHIFTING IN DIRECTION
BETWEEN 1 AM AND 2 PM WEDNESDAY IN THAT DOMINANT SNOW BAND LOCATION.
SOME LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE THE BEST LIFT IS ABOVE THE DGZ...THE
DGZ IS NEARLY ON THE GROUND. EVEN SO THE LIFT IS IMPRESSIVE AND
PERSISTENT FOR OVER 12 HOURS IN NEARLY THE SAME LOCATIONS. SO...I
HAVE TO IMAGINE 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS MORE THAN LIKELY IN THAT
AREA. I DO NOT SEE BLOWING SNOW AS A MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT
SINCE WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
SHORE (YOU HAVE TO BE ON THE BEACH TO GET WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN 30
MPH). STILL THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 MPH INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
ADVISORY SHOULD INCLUDE ALL OF THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES FROM
MASON THROUGH VAN BUREN. I WILL HAVE LAKE COUNTY IN THE ADVISORY
TOO BUT IT WILL REALLY ONLY BE ITS EXTREME WESTERN SECTION THAT
WILL BE IMPACTED.
.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AND THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
CERTAINLY THE COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A LARGE...1052MB...HIGH IS
PROGD TO SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS WILL WARM...TEMPS OVER THE LAKE WILL STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED AND IT/S POSSIBLE WE/LL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES AS APPARENT TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY/LL BE AROUND -15 OR
SO. WE/LL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. H8 TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND -22C. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SYNOPTIC SNOW AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND MAY ACCUMULATE 3-6 INCHES...HIGHEST OVER THE
WESTERN CWA. WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THAT TOO.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
DUE TO A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT... SNOW WILL BE
FALLING AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY... WHEN CONDITIONS START TO BECOME
UNFAVORABLE. SATURDAY AFTERNOON... COULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB
WARMING AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING LESS CYCLONIC. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MAY POSSIBLY PASS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY... BRIEFLY INCREASING THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW. HAVE SOME SNOW CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY... AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A MODERATING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FRIDAY... SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WINDS WILL BECOME NNWLY OVERNIGHT
AND THAT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW BANDS CLOSER TO THE LAKE. AS
SUCH...CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT AT KLAN/KJXN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
TO SIMPLIFY THINGS...WE ENDED THE SCA A LITTLE EARLY AND BUMPED UP
THE GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TO BEGIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT AND WILL GUST TO 40 KNOTS. GIVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
OVER THE LAKE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AND MARINERS CAN
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE UP ICE JAMS ON AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. RIVERS ARE BECOMING ICE COVERED. AVERAGE AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL BELOW 20 DEGREES... WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE TEENS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN ICE
FORMATION.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-064-071.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
STORM TERM...WDM
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
352 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT THE MULTI-DAY SNOW IS SLOWING
COMING TO AN END. THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS AGAIN SHIFTED AS FAR WEST
AS LIVINGSTON AND THE FOOTHILLS WHERE TEMPERATURES DROPPED FROM
ABOUT 50 TO 20 DEGREES IN 5 MINUTES. VAD WIND PROFILE HAS SHOWN
THE ARCTIC HAS DEEPEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AS WELL WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 8K FEET. SNOW THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN MONTANA FOR MOST OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWEST AS THE RADAR HAS BEEN FILLING IN FROM
ROSEBUD COUNTY TO WHEATLAND AND STILLWATER COUNTIES. MOST OF THIS
LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT BUT THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER
ACTIVITY. HRRR MODEL DOES NOT SHOW THIS BAND OF SNOW MAKING IT TOO
FAR WEST OF BILLINGS. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FROM
ABOUT COLUMBUS WESTWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A ROUNDUP-BILLINGS-
SHERIDAN LINE WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE MORE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE AS
DYNAMICS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. MODELS
DECREASE THE SNOW SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SO LOWERED POPS TO
JUST A CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AS THE ARCTIC SHIFTS EAST AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WENDESDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING. MODELS THEN BRING THE ARCTIC FRONT
BACK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO TEENS BELOW ZERO. THE FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA BUT DYNAMICS OVERALL ARE
MUCH WEAKER THAN THIS PAST SYSTEM SO ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MUCH
LIGHTER. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
THE LATEST EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...AND ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
STARTING FRIDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
...BEGINNING THE SLOW RETREAT OF THE ARCTIC AIR. THIS RETREAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
DECENT TEMPERATURE SPREAD EAST TO WEST UNTIL THE ARCTIC AIR CLEARS
THE STATE. BY SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE MILD COMPARED TO
THE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH REMAINING BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT
10 DEGREES.
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY AS A LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP OFF THIS LOW AND MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE
TRACK OF THE WAVE...WITH THE EC SHIFTING THE WEAK FORCING A LITTLE
EAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION. NEITHER SOLUTION HAS STRONG FORCING OR
MOISTURE....THUS EXPECTING AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. REIMER/HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH
CENTRAL WY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 06 UTC AS THE SNOW ENDS.
IT COULD TAKE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CEILINGS TO RETURN TO VFR
LEVELS IN SOME AREAS...BUT WE DO EXPECT VFR WEATHER OVER THE WHOLE
AREA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 000/035 024/025 902/011 004/020 011/024 011/029 016/030
71/B 13/S 21/B 12/J 22/J 11/B 01/B
LVM 012/044 026/033 008/026 019/035 019/034 020/036 021/034
21/N 01/B 21/B 12/J 22/J 11/B 11/B
HDN 000/028 016/026 907/012 901/020 005/023 004/028 013/030
70/E 13/S 20/B 11/B 22/J 11/B 00/B
MLS 911/018 013/021 914/002 909/012 904/015 002/023 011/027
60/B 23/S 10/U 11/B 12/J 10/B 01/B
4BQ 905/024 017/025 912/007 901/019 005/021 007/026 014/030
70/B 04/S 10/U 01/B 12/J 11/B 11/B
BHK 918/014 009/020 914/002 907/012 904/014 003/023 011/026
30/B 23/S 00/U 11/B 12/J 00/B 11/B
SHR 000/031 025/029 903/016 007/028 011/028 010/030 014/031
61/B 03/S 31/B 12/J 22/J 11/B 01/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR ZONES 28>33-35>38-42-57-58.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 63.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
939 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ANOTHER DAY WITH EXPECTED SNOWFALL BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO TAPER
DOWN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE EAST
AND WEST ACROSS OUR CENTRAL LOCATIONS WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR REED POINT. TEMPERATURES FROM BIG TIMBER TO
LIVINGSTON ARE CLOSE TO 50 DEGREES WITH READINGS IN THE BILLINGS
AREA IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MILES CITY AND
BAKER. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS ARCTIC IS VERY SHALLOW WITH WEST
WINDS BRINING WARM AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WARM
OVERRUNING IS ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR CENTRAL ZONES.
MODELS SHOW THE ARCTIC AIR DEEPENING JUST A BIT THIS AFTERNOON
AND SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER WEST. SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS
EAST AND NORTHEAST MONTANA AND THE HRRR MODEL BRINGS THIS AREA OF
SNOW SOUTHWEST THROUGH BILLINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE EAST AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCES FROM ABOUT COLUMBUS
WESTWARD. DYNAMICS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY SO NOT EXPECTING
AS HEAVY OF A SNOW BURST AS WE SAW MONDAY EVENING BUT STILL
ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY AT LIVINGSTON BUT ADVISORY TYPE WINDS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED SO HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AND THE
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE REMAINING WINTER
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AND RE- EVALUATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
STILL A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WITH DIFFICULT DETAILS TO
SORT OUT. ARCTIC BOUNDARY HAS BOOMED OUT OF LIVINGSTON OVERNIGHT
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 50KTS. NOT REALLY GAP FLOW AS THE
WIND DIRECTION WAS 250 DEGREES...BUT THERE WAS A BIT OF A GRADIENT
PERPENDICULAR TO THE VALLEY. BELIEVE WINDS COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEING TAPPED INTO AS LIVINGSTON HAS WARMED
IN THE UPPER 40S ALREADY THIS MORNING AND 700MB WINDS WERE
PROJECTED AT 55KTS ON THE RAP. ISSUED A QUICK ADVISORY FOR THESE
WINDS AND TOOK IT THROUGH THE MORNING. GFS DECREASES THE GRADIENT
BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE ARCTIC WAS SET TO ROLL BACK IN AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS AT 700MB HAS THINNED OUT THE ARCTIC
DRAMATICALLY AS KBLX RADAR NOW ONLY SEEING EAST WINDS ON THE FIRST
GATE...SO THE AIRMASS WAS LESS THAT A THOUSAND FEET DEEP. AS SEEN
WITH THE WARM READINGS AT LIVINGSTON...THERE IS WARMER AIR ABOVE
THE ARCTIC THAT COULD BE A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING
AS THE EVENING CREW INTRODUCED. WILL KEEP THAT THEME GOING BUT
TRIMMED THE AREA BACK FROM THE WEST UNDER THE WARMER AIR.
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING ALONG THE DEEPEST PART OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY HAS SLID EAST OF BILLINGS AND ALLOWED SNOW TO TAPER OFF
OVER WESTERN YELLOWSTONE COUNTY. THE STRONGEST RETURNS WERE FROM
EASTERN MUSSELSHELL COUNTY INTO NORTHERN BIG HORN AND TREASURE
COUNTIES. RADAR HAS LOOKED CONVECTIVE AND BELIEVE SOME OF SNOW
RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR RETURNS.
BELIEVE THE BAND WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE EASTWARD TOWARD MILES CITY
AND BROADUS THIS MORNING...WITH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES SEEING A
LULL IN ACTIVITY. THAT LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH.
THE ARCTIC IS PROGGED TO SWING BACK IN LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SLOPES BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. SNOW WILL KICK BACK IN AGAIN
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SNOW RATES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE SNOW ON MONDAY...BUT
SEVERAL INCHES WILL ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
LOOKS TO BE EAST OF A ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN LINE AND
WEST OF A FORSYTH TO BROADUS LINE. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. OTHER AREAS WILL STILL SEE SNOWFALL...JUST LIGHTER
AMOUNTS.
DROPPED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORIES IN PLACES AS
DOWNSLOPE WAS WORKING MAGIC AND EVEN WHEN THE ARCTIC GETS BACK IN
THIS AFTERNOON...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD STAY OVER CENTRAL
ZONES. CONTEMPLATED LOWERING SOME WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES...BUT
SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED AND COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES IN FACT...SO
DO NOT WANT TO COMPLICATE THINGS. TRAVEL WILL STILL BE VERY
CHALLENGING...ESPECIALLY ON RURAL ROADS AND SIDE STREETS...AND
SINCE SNOW WILL CONTINUE...DECIDED TO LET THE WARNING PLAY OUT.
DAY OR EVENING CREW MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY BASED ON HOW
THE DAY GOES.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AND END ALL TOGETHER
OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY AS HEIGHTS RISE. WILL BE
TOUGH TO WARM THINGS UP MUCH THOUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
A LOT OF FRESH SNOW COVER. TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
THE LATEST EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...AND ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THURSDAY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA...BRINGING MORE ARCTIC
AIR ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE WITH
THIS WAVE...AND THE FORCING CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK. AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW...CURRENTLY 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
STARTING FRIDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
...BEGINNING THE SLOW RETREAT OF THE ARCTIC AIR. THIS RETREAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
DECENT TEMPERATURE SPREAD EAST TO WEST UNTIL THE ARCTIC AIR CLEARS
THE STATE. BY SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE MILD COMPARED TO
THE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH REMAINING BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT
10 DEGREES.
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY AS A LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP OFF THIS LOW AND MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE
TRACK OF THE WAVE...WITH THE EC SHIFTING THE WEAK FORCING A LITTLE
EAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION. NEITHER SOLUTION HAS STRONG FORCING OR
MOISTURE....THUS EXPECTING AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. REIMER
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD. SNOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MT DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD WITH TIME AS
THE FRONT DOES...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN
ICE PELLETS FOR A TIME ON ITS LEADING EDGE /MAINLY NEAR KBIL UNTIL
ABOUT 20 UTC/. THERE COULD BE SOME LIFR CONDITIONS WHERE THE FLAKE
GROWTH IS BETTER IN THE SNOW...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT LIKE AT
KMLS. EXPECT AREA MOUNTAINS TO BE OBSCURED. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 017 000/026 020/025 902/014 006/022 013/023 010/027
9/S 71/E 03/J 21/B 12/J 22/J 11/U
LVM 049 012/044 026/033 008/028 020/035 020/034 019/034
3/O 21/N 02/J 21/B 12/J 22/J 11/B
HDN 017 000/025 016/026 907/015 002/023 007/023 004/027
+/S 71/E 02/J 20/B 11/E 22/J 11/U
MLS 010 911/018 012/021 912/005 907/013 902/015 000/022
+/S 30/E 12/J 10/B 11/B 11/B 10/B
4BQ 014 905/024 017/025 907/010 001/020 006/020 004/025
+/S 60/E 02/J 10/U 01/B 21/B 11/U
BHK 008 918/014 010/020 910/005 906/013 902/014 901/022
9/S 20/B 12/J 10/U 11/B 11/B 00/B
SHR 027 000/031 022/029 903/018 009/029 011/027 009/029
6/S 61/B 02/J 21/B 11/B 22/J 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR ZONES 28>33-35>38-42-57-58.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 63-68.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
442 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON THURSDAY BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS HAVE BEEN CLIPPING THE SHORELINE FOR MOST
OF THE DAY SO STARTED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW FOR THE
LAKESHORE ZONES. BOTH THE HRRR AND 1000-850MB OMEGA BECOME FAIRLY
ENERGETIC AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WESTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT TIMES...THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AND THEN BECOME HEAVY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
BAND WILL COME CRASHING ONSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING INLAND. INLAND
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE SECONDARY SNOW BELT WILL NOT SEE
MUCH SNOW UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES SO DELAYED THE START TIME ON THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM. HEAVY BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE METRO CLEVELAND AREA FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE MAKING
TRAVEL DIFFICULT AND SLOW.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO 5-7
DEGREES OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT AND COMBINE WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO -15. THIS IS ON THE LOWER END
OF THE ADVISORY SPECTRUM...WITH THE COLDEST VALUES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MORNING WITH EXTREME LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE FRIGID AIRMASS
COMING OFF OF LAKE ERIE. SOME DISRUPTION TO THE LAKE EFFECT WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT BUT EXPECT BANDS TO DEVELOP
QUICKLY AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DOMINANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND COMING OFF
LAKE HURON. TODAYS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE STILL EXCITED ABOUT
THIS FEATURE BUT HAVE SHIFTED IT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST INTO ERIE
AND CRAWFORD PA. SNOWFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE THIS BAND SETS UP.
THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW LIES IN HOW
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS ATTEMPTS TO DRY OUT. MODELS SOUNDING INDICATE 800 J/KG OF
LAKE INDUCED CAPE COMBINED WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS HOLDING UP
AROUND 10K FEET. THE FORECAST CONTINUES SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SNOW SHOWERS START TO BREAK UP AND
DECREASE OUTSIDE OF THE DOMINANT BAND IF WE DRY OUT ENOUGH.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL AGGRAVATION ON
WEDNESDAY.
THE FLOW START TO BACK DURING THE EVENING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
TREND TO BE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME CONFINED TO THE SNOWBELT
AGAIN. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY WESTERLY BANDS THAT TRY TO
DEVELOP WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PEAKS.
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH WEST OHIO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AN AREA
OF WEST CENTRAL OHIO FROM FINDLAY TO MANSFIELD. AS TEMPERATURES
FALL TO 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THIS AREA AND COMBINE WITH THE
WIND...THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WIND CHILL
VALUES DROP BELOW -25 WHICH IS WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A WIND CHILL
WARNING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL ALSO NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO
THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE MODELS PROG ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THOUGH ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ALONG THE SNOWBELT AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND H850 TEMPS DROP OFF TO AROUND -20C.
ELSEWHERE THE SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SATURDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ALTHOUGH A CONTINUED WEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE
ONSHORE IN THE SNOWBELT. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE
MORNING AND DROP BACK TO 30-40% FOR THE AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY MODELS
TAKE A DIVERGENT PATH WITH THE ECMWF WARMER AND WETTER WHILE THE GFS
SHOWS COLDER AND MUCH DRIER. FOR NOW FOLLOWED WPS GUIDANCE WHICH
SHOWS FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLIPPER EXITING THE AREA WITH CLEARING MOVING INTO THE WEST HALF
OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT WESTERN TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS REMAINING EAST. AT
KERI...A LAKE EFFECT BAND HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA WITH LIFR.
THINKING THAT SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH A SHORT BREAK THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT SHOT OF LAKE
EFFECT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. FOR THE AFTER...AFTER
ABOUT 03-04Z MOISTURE AGAIN INCREASES FROM THE NORTH AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC BOUNDARY DUE IN AFTER 08Z. WINDS QUICKLY GO NNW AFTER THE
BOUNDARY AND EXPECT LAKE EFFECT WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR
KCLE KCAK KYNG AND KERI FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE IS NOW MOSTLY ICE COVERED. CANCELLED
THE SMALL CRAFT THERE DUE TO THE ICE. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WITHOUT CHANGE. WILL ISSUE A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
BEGINNING AT 3AM TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH 4PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS EARLY TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AS THE
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY WILL TURN HEAVY AS TEMPS FALL. ALSO LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL ALSO TURN HEAVY EAST HALF TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO UNDER A MILE. WINDS
WILL TURN WEST AND SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DECREASING WINDS AND
WAVES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ012-
089.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR OHZ013-014.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ010-011-020>023.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR OHZ003-006>009-018-019-031>033-038.
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ001.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR LEZ061-144>149-164>169.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK