Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/28/14

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JUNEAU AK

 401 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...MOST OF THE PANHANDLE HAS CLEARED OUT NICELY TODAY
AS YESTERDAY`S LOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW REPLACES IT. SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS STILL
LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS ACCORDING TO SATELLITE
IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS BUT THOSE SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THE YUKON
FUELING THE START OF SOME OUTFLOW WINDS. ELDRED ROCK WINDS
INCREASED TO NORTH 25 KT OVER NIGHT AND FIVE FINGERS HAS JUST
INCREASED TO 25 KT AROUND MID DAY. FARTHER SOUTH THE DIXON
ENTRANCE WEST BUOY AND LINCOLN ROCK ARE STILL SHOWING NW WINDS TO
25 KT DUE TO LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE RETREATING LOW
IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES AS THE PANHANDLE WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY.
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW AS SOME
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP. WINDS WILL NOT BE REALLY HIGH AS
THERE IS NO LOW IN THE GULF THAT WOULD TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS ANY MORE THAT IT WILL BE. HOWEVER, WITH
A 4 TO 5 MB FORECAST GRADIENT BETWEEN JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY DECIDED
TO BUMP LYNN CANAL TO MIN GALE FOR SUN. STEPHENS PASSAGE AND CROSS
SOUND WILL ALSO BE WINDY. BOTH PLACES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
25 KT BY SUN IN THE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ON SUN AS WELL AS CROSS
BARRIER FLOW INCREASES TO 30 TO 40 KT AND SOME COOLER AIR BRINGS
IN A WEAK INVERSION ABOVE RIDGE TOP. LIMITING THIS MOUNTAIN WAVE
POTENTIAL HOWEVER, IS A VERY LOW ALMOST NONEXISTENT CRITICAL LEVEL
AROUND 800 MB. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW
DECIDED TO HOIST A STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS FOR SUN AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY MIDDAY
EVEN WITH THE LESS THEN FAVORABLE CRUCIAL LEVEL AND WEAK
INVERSION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE COLD AIR MASS IN CANADA IS NOT THAT
STRONG WITH FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS ONLY REACHING DOWN TO -12 TO
-16 C IN CANADA AND -5 TO -9 C ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT
HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN SEEING RECENTLY. EXPECTED HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S AND 30S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. IT IS TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPS THAT
WILL BE NOTICEABLE COOLER BUT IT WILL MOSTLY BE DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM THE CLEARER SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
20S IN WINDY AREAS TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN WIND SHELTERED
INLAND AREAS.

MAINLY STUCK CLOSE TO HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY AS THESE TEND TO
CATCH THE LOCALIZED AREAS OF HIGHER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OUTFLOW WINDS BETTER. FAVORED THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS TODAY FOR
THAT REASON WHICH HELPED FLESH OUT THE NORTHEAST WINDS THAT WILL
BE COMING OUT OF CROSS SOUND AND THE PASSES EAST OF YAKUTAT.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WILL CONTINUE THE DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE
RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY THEN TIP OVER/FLATTEN
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN APPROACHING SYSTEM TO GET
THROUGH...ALTHOUGH WILL WORK TO WEAKEN IT.

THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE YUKON WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO
B.C. SUNDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE SOUTH ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT
THE PRESSURE ORIENTATION FROM NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AN
EASTERLY OUTFLOW. THEN THE RIDGE WILL ORIENT ALONG THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE INSIDE WATERS. THIS WILL WARM THINGS BACK UP
THROUGH MID WEEK AS PRECIP MOVES BACK IN. MANY PLACES WILL START
OFF AS SNOW WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN
CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE
WEAKENING THINK THAT PRECIP/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. HAVE
ABOUT 2 INCHES AT MOST.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT ARE
SHOWING MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS FROM THE ARCTIC THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REFORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REBUILD OVER CANADA AND WILL
INCREASE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS AGAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL PASSING
FROM THE NORTH ARE A UNIQUE PATTERN...MAKING FOR SOME FORECASTER
UNCERTAINTY. GUT FEELING IS THAT IT WILL BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR
AND JUST HIGH CLOUDS AS THEY PASS.

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FLIP FLOPPING WITH EACH MODEL RUN WITH A NEW LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF ON FRIDAY IN THE 00Z RUN AND NOTHING WITH THE
12Z RUN. THE 12Z RUN WAS MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS AND WHAT WPC
HAD...SO WENT WITH THIS MORE CONSISTENT IDEA. DECREASED
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO DECREASE
THEM MORE IF THE TREND TOWARD THE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ025.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-022-031-034>036-041>043-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051.

&&

$$

EAL/FERRIN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 1044 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPPER LOW CENTER JUST NOW MOVING EAST
OF 4 CORNERS REGION...THROUGH NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. SHOULD KEEP
ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

WHILE THE SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO NW NM...JUST
SE OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 16Z AND 21Z THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...COVERING MUCH OF THE SE PLAINS. SO...WILL
STAY THE COURSE DESPITE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT
THIS POINT. ONE TO FOUR INCH ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK REASONABLE
AT THIS POINT. SOME 4 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SANGRES AND SRN I-25 NR KTAD. KCOS MAY MISS OUT ON MUCH OF THE
SNOWFALL. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

...COLD WITH SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...

UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN UT IS SLOWLY TRANSLATING EWD THIS MORNING. AS
A REMINDER THAT DPROG DT IS NOT ALWAYS ON TARGET...THE TRACK AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW SEEMS TO BE REVERTING BACK TO MODEL RUNS FROM
SEVERAL DAYS AGO...BEFORE THE RECENT STRENGTHENING TREND IN THE
PROGS. SO...NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...ALL HI RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY ROBUST BAND
OF SNOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER THE SE PLAINS. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE
ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE H7 LOW TRACK...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM AROUND KTAD MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TO S OF KITR BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SO...BEST CHANCE OF DECENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
OUT OVER THE SE PLAINS FROM AROUND 12Z TO 18Z...POSSIBLY LINGERING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO STALL. NOT SEEING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT COULD
SEE A BRIEF ROUND OF SOME MODERATE SNOW AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH
ERN CO AND HT WINDS BACK FOR A WHILE. AS MENTIONED IN AN EARLIER
DISCUSSION...THE INFAMOUS BROWN HOLE IN NRN PUEBLO AND SRN EL PASO
COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE MUCH SNOW...MAYBE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO IF THE
BANDING DOESN`T DEVELOP...BUT A FEW SPOTS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH
COULD STILL SEE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE.
WILL JUST HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH...BUT AT THIS TIME
SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL HOLIDAY TRAVEL IMPACT ALONG ROUTES
SUCH AS 50...160...AND 96.

OTHER STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH.
LEADING EDGE OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IS ARRIVING EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND H7 TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FROM AROUND MINUS 10
THIS MORN TO MINUS 15 OR LOWER BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO...NOT EXPECTING
ANY REAL INCREASE IN TEMPS TODAY...IN FACT DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT
OF PRECIP WE COULD SEE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE CUT BACK
HIGH TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS BY A COUPLE DEGREES...AS WE WILL START
OUT CHILLY AND STAY THAT WAY TODAY. HIGH VALLEYS WILL SEE SIMILAR
HIGHS...IN THE 20S...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WILL START TO SEE PRECIP TAPER OFF AFTER 00Z THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME LINGERING SN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE BY 06Z
TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AND IT WILL BE COLD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE PLAINS AND NEGATIVES FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS AND MT
AREAS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND POPS. LATEST REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SYSTEM IMPACTING FORECAST
DISTRICT TODAY(FRIDAY) WILL BE DEPARTING THE CWA SATURDAY
ALLOWING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS(BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES) TO BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

NEXT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURFACE SURGE(DRIVEN BY
1050+ MB SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA BY 00Z
TUESDAY) IS PROJECTED TO PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COOL TO COLD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...FROM MONDAY INTO AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED
BY LATE WEEK.

IN ADDITION...UPPER DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE
SURGE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS(INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW) OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AS TOUCHED UPON BRIEFLY EARLIER...UNSEASONABLE COLD CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHERE MANY
LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURE READINGS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

UPPER LOW JUST NOW MOVING EAST OF 4 CORNERS REGION THROUGH
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THINGS
STATUS QUO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ058>067-069>080-083-085>089-093>099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ081-082-084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
AVIATION...LW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 701 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

WHILE THE SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO NW NM...JUST
SE OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 16Z AND 21Z THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...COVERING MUCH OF THE SE PLAINS. SO...WILL
STAY THE COURSE DESPITE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS AT THIS
POINT. ONE TO FOUR INCH ACCUMS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS
POINT. SOME 4 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SANGRES AND SRN I-25 NR KTAD. KCOS MAY MISS OUT ON MUCH OF THE
SNOWFALL. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

...COLD WITH SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...

UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN UT IS SLOWLY TRANSLATING EWD THIS MORNING. AS
A REMINDER THAT DPROG DT IS NOT ALWAYS ON TARGET...THE TRACK AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW SEEMS TO BE REVERTING BACK TO MODEL RUNS FROM
SEVERAL DAYS AGO...BEFORE THE RECENT STRENGTHENING TREND IN THE
PROGS. SO...NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...ALL HI RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY ROBUST BAND
OF SNOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER THE SE PLAINS. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE
ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE H7 LOW TRACK...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM AROUND KTAD MOVING NEWD TO S OF KITR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SO...BEST CHANCE OF DECENT SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE OUT OVER THE SE
PLAINS FROM AROUND 12Z TO 18Z...POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO STALL. NOT SEEING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT COULD SEE A BRIEF
ROUND OF SOME MODT SNOW AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH ERN CO AND HT
WINDS BACK FOR A WHILE. AS MENTIONED IN AN EARLIER DISCUSSION...THE
INFAMOUS BROWN HOLE IN NRN PUEBLO AND SRN EL PASO COUNTIES MAY NOT
SEE MUCH SNOW...MAYBE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO IF THE BANDING DOESN`T
DEVELOP...BUT A FEW SPOTS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH COULD STILL SEE
SOME DECENT ACCUMS IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE. WILL JUST HAVE TO TAKE A
WAIT AND SEE APPROACH...BUT AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
HOLIDAY TRAVEL IMPACT ALONG ROUTES SUCH AS 50...160...AND 96.

OTHER STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH.
LEADING EDGE OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IS ARRIVING EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND H7 TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FROM AROUND MINUS 10
THIS MORN TO MINUS 15 OR LOWER BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO...NOT EXPECTING
ANY REAL INCREASE IN TEMPS TODAY...IN FACT DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT
OF PRECIP WE COULD SEE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE CUT BACK
HIGH TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS BY A COUPLE DEGREES...AS WE WILL START
OUT CHILLY AND STAY THAT WAY TODAY. HIGH VALLEYS WILL SEE SIMILAR
HIGHS...IN THE 20S...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODT SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WILL START TO SEE PRECIP TAPER OFF AFTER 00Z THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME LINGERING SN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TRRN AND
PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE BY 06Z
TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AND IT WILL BE COLD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE PLAINS AND NEGATIVES FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS AND MT
AREAS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND POPS. LATEST REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SYSTEM IMPACTING FORECAST
DISTRICT TODAY(FRIDAY) WILL BE DEPARTING THE CWFA SATURDAY
ALLOWING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS(BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES) TO BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

NEXT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURFACE SURGE(DRIVEN BY
1050+ MB SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA BY 00Z
TUESDAY) IS PROJECTED TO PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COOL TO COLD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...FROM MONDAY INTO AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED
BY LATE WEEK.

IN ADDITION...UPPER DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE
SURGE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS(INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW) OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AS TOUCHED UPON BRIEFLY EARLIER...UNSEASONABLE COLD CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHERE MANY
LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURE READINGS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

HAVE MOVED UP TINING OF SHSN A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. HEAVIEST
BAND OF SNOW SHOULD MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH/RATON MESA AFTER
17Z...THEN IMPACT AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF KPUB. KPUB COULD BRIEFLY
GET INTO THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THINGS MOVE E
AND DISSIPATE THIS EVE. SOME PRECIP STILL EXPECTED AT KCOS BUT
DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT...AND HAVE IMPROVED CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY
IN THE LATEST TAF AMD. KALS ALSO WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SHSN
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE.
ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ058>067-069>080-083-085>089-093>099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ081-082-084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
AVIATION...ROSE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 636 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

WHILE THE SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO NW NM...JUST
SE OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 16Z AND 21Z THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...COVERING MUCH OF THE SE PLAINS. SO...WILL
STAY THE COURSE DESPITE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS AT THIS
POINT. ONE TO FOUR INCH ACCUMS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS
POINT. SOME 4 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SANGRES AND SRN I-25 NR KTAD. KCOS MAY MISS OUT ON MUCH OF THE
SNOWFALL. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

...COLD WITH SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...

UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN UT IS SLOWLY TRANSLATING EWD THIS MORNING. AS
A REMINDER THAT DPROG DT IS NOT ALWAYS ON TARGET...THE TRACK AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW SEEMS TO BE REVERTING BACK TO MODEL RUNS FROM
SEVERAL DAYS AGO...BEFORE THE RECENT STRENGTHENING TREND IN THE
PROGS. SO...NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...ALL HI RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY ROBUST BAND
OF SNOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER THE SE PLAINS. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE
ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE H7 LOW TRACK...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM AROUND KTAD MOVING NEWD TO S OF KITR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SO...BEST CHANCE OF DECENT SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE OUT OVER THE SE
PLAINS FROM AROUND 12Z TO 18Z...POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO STALL. NOT SEEING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT COULD SEE A BRIEF
ROUND OF SOME MODT SNOW AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH ERN CO AND HT
WINDS BACK FOR A WHILE. AS MENTIONED IN AN EARLIER DISCUSSION...THE
INFAMOUS BROWN HOLE IN NRN PUEBLO AND SRN EL PASO COUNTIES MAY NOT
SEE MUCH SNOW...MAYBE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO IF THE BANDING DOESN`T
DEVELOP...BUT A FEW SPOTS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH COULD STILL SEE
SOME DECENT ACCUMS IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE. WILL JUST HAVE TO TAKE A
WAIT AND SEE APPROACH...BUT AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
HOLIDAY TRAVEL IMPACT ALONG ROUTES SUCH AS 50...160...AND 96.

OTHER STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH.
LEADING EDGE OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IS ARRIVING EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND H7 TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FROM AROUND MINUS 10
THIS MORN TO MINUS 15 OR LOWER BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO...NOT EXPECTING
ANY REAL INCREASE IN TEMPS TODAY...IN FACT DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT
OF PRECIP WE COULD SEE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE CUT BACK
HIGH TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS BY A COUPLE DEGREES...AS WE WILL START
OUT CHILLY AND STAY THAT WAY TODAY. HIGH VALLEYS WILL SEE SIMILAR
HIGHS...IN THE 20S...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODT SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WILL START TO SEE PRECIP TAPER OFF AFTER 00Z THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME LINGERING SN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TRRN AND
PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE BY 06Z
TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AND IT WILL BE COLD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE PLAINS AND NEGATIVES FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS AND MT
AREAS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND POPS. LATEST REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SYSTEM IMPACTING FORECAST
DISTRICT TODAY(FRIDAY) WILL BE DEPARTING THE CWFA SATURDAY
ALLOWING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS(BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES) TO BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

NEXT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURFACE SURGE(DRIVEN BY
1050+ MB SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA BY 00Z
TUESDAY) IS PROJECTED TO PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COOL TO COLD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...FROM MONDAY INTO AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED
BY LATE WEEK.

IN ADDITION...UPPER DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE
SURGE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS(INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW) OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AS TOUCHED UPON BRIEFLY EARLIER...UNSEASONABLE COLD CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHERE MANY
LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURE READINGS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

IMPACT FOR THE TAF SITES IS NOT LOOKING QUITE AS GREAT
AS IT HAD EARLIER...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR
ESPECIALLY AT KCOS...AND POTENTIALLY AT KPUB IF AREAS OF BANDED SNOW
TO THE E OF I-25 AND S OF HGWY 50 DRIFT A BIT FARTHER TO THE NW.
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME...THEN
PERIODS OF SHSN POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ058>067-069>080-083-085>089-093>099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ081-082-084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 924 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
307 PM CST

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION...USHERING IN MUCH
COOLER AIR ALONG WITH SOME SCT LIGHT PCPN.  AS OF 230PM CDT...THE
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...TO
EAST-CENTRAL IL...TO SERN MO.  WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO ARND 30
MPH FOLLOWING THE FROPA WHILE VEERING FROM SWLY TO WLY.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY DROPPING OFF WITH THE FROPA AND THE BULK OF
THE PCPN IS POST-FRONTAL AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS SET UP ALONG
AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE.  SOME SCT RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER
NWRN IN AND ECNTRL IL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AS COOLER AIR FILTERS
IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...LIQUID PCPN IN THE POST-SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SOME GRAPPLE.  THE SHARPER TEMPERATURE DROPOFF WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SECONDARY TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURGE OF COOLER AIR PUSHED ACROSS THE EVENING WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO WLY-WNWLY.  ANY LINGERING PCPN SHOULD
PUSH END OVER NWRN IL-ECNTRL IL DURG THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM ARND 20F OVER THE ROCKFORD
AREA TO THE UPPER 20S EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR.

KREIN

&&

.LONG TERM...
307 PM CST

SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS A
SIGNAL OF A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS OF RECENT DAYS BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS THE
SHORT-WAVELENGTH...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH SHEARS OUT INTO BROAD WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.  THE GENERAL
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR A
SLOW COOLING TREND UNDER BROAD...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.  A
STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR WITH A SERIES OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES
WILL USHER IN THE TRUE COLD AIR BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING DROPPING OFF INTO THE LOWER TEENS OVER
THE ROCKFORD AREA TO AROUND 20F EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR.  THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SET UP TO MORE ZONAL OVER THE SRN CONUS
AS THE MAIN JET PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH WHILE POLAR-SOURCED
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK.  THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ALSO BECOME LESS
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A CUT OFF
LOW DIGGING INTO SRN CALIFORNIA AND VERY SLOWLY TRACKING EWD THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY LATE NEXT WEEK WHILE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND GREATER
ANTILLES.  THE SLOWING PROGRESSION TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL IN
TURN SET UP A PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES KEEPING
A STEADY STREAM OF SEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION.  THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
TRIES TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE SNOW IN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT.
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...
PERHAPS A  DUSTING WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGIONS...A PERIOD OF GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INITIALLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE MONDAY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO THE EAST OVER NWRN
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS FLOW BACKS MORE NWLY.
IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO DISCUSS ACCUMULATIONS WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AT THIS POINT...BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME MEASURABLE
ACCUMULATION.  MIDWEEK SHOULD BE DRY...BUT WITH THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SERN CONUS.  BY LATE NEXT WEEK...THE
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE CUT OFF LOW DROPPING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  HOWEVER...WHILE THE LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TREND...THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF OR GEM.  GIVEN THAT SOUTHWEST CUT-OFF LOWS TEND TO LINGER
LONGER THAN THE MODELS LIKE TO FORECAST...HAVE TRENDED THE LONGER
TERM FORECAST CLOSER TO THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS TREND EVEN SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  SO...WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE LEVELS WITH TEMPERATURES
CONDUCIVE TO SNOW FOR NOW.

KREIN

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* MVFR CIGS SCATTERING TO VFR.

BMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO OUR SOUTHWEST BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND MODELS SHOW SOME HINT THAT DRY ADVECTION AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW WILL ALLOW CIGS TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT THOUGH
WOULDNT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF CIGS PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. IF
THIS DOES END UP BEING THE CASE...EXPECT THE WOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF
PERIOD AND SHOULD GENERALLY UNDERGO A WEAKENING TREND AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES THE AREA.

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING RETURN TO VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS.

BMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...CHC SNOW LATE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
FRIDAY...CHC SNOW. MVFR/IFR PSBL.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...
336 PM CST

AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REMAINING AREAS OVER THE LAKE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR OVER THE WATER...A ONE TO
THREE HOUR WINDOW OF GALES/GUSTS DID OCCUR THIS PAST AFTERNOON
OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE. THE PEAK OF THESE HIGHEST GUSTS HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED AND EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN SPEEDS FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD. NONETHELESS...A BRIEF GALE FORCE GUST CANT BE RULED OUT
HERE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. A WEST NORTHWEST WIND CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...AS WINDS DIMINISH AND WAVES
SUBSIDE. A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED OVER THE
ENTIRE LAKE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 10 PM
     SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO





  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
905 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

The cold air aloft driving into the north side of the system has
been changing the rain over to snow and sleet for a couple of
hours at the end of precipitation. There seems to be less evidence
of the snow/sleet band in the observations and reports over the last
hour or so, but the air temps are dropping toward freezing in the
back edge of the precip, so will continue to indicate a band of
snow/sleet at the western edge of precip until precip comes to an
end later tonight. Any light snow/sleet accumulation would create
slippery roads. Road temps have generally been reporting above
freezing, but some bridges, overpasses, and secondary roads would
be more susceptible to icing. The precip is increasing its forward
progress toward Indiana, and we have adjusted the weather grids to
end precip a few hours sooner tonight. All precip will likely be
out of our counties by 1 am and possibly midnight.

Gusty northwest winds will develop after precip ends, ushering the
colder air. Some clearing is forecast for our NW counties later
tonight, which would allow low temps to drop off a bit farther
than guidance. Will trim a couple degrees off lows toward
Galesburg/Lacon. Updated forecast grids and info will be available
shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

Low clouds, drizzle, light rain showers still ongoing across the
forecast area this afternoon.  Cold front about out of ILX
area...just NW of Lawrenceville.  Some flakes mixing into the precip
on the extreme NW edge of the post frontal echos on radar.  Front
progression somewhat steady although running into more parallel flow
aloft.  Cold dense air from the NW really colder behind the post
frontal precip spread across the radar mosaic.  Timing of the cold
air a minor concern as time progresses.  Ground temps still close to
40 degrees, but with the arrival of the freezing temps, some
elevated surfaces could develop some slick spots. The arrival of the
coldest air will be after the precip has come to an end...so
freezing should be confined to the  residual moisture/puddles from
today`s drizzle/rain. Another issue with the overnight forecast is
the cloud cover. GFS is quick to break it out...a little faster than
is currently represented on sat imagery.  NAM is far cloudier,
trapping the moisture in the boundary layer and preventing the mix
out entirely.  RUC looking more like the NAM with representing the
developing inversion behind the boundary.  Plenty of dry air up
there, but how quickly it will erode through the clouds is a huge
question mark.  Covered in cirrus all day, not convinced the diurnal
influence on the clouds is enough to erode them at sunset.
Considering how quickly sunset is approaching, going to split the
difference more or less with a slower clearing out...but not quite
as trapped as the NAM. Some breaking up could be seen in the far NW,
and forecast low temps are considerably cooler as a result.
However, going cloudier overall through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

High pressure behind the front will bring dry weather to the area
for tomorrow through Monday. However, this mild high pressure area
will be temporary as a stronger/colder high pressure area drops into
the region Tuesday. A weak boundary will be between these two high
pressure areas, but it will have very little moisture to work with.
This will be an Arctic front with much colder air behind it. Any
precip with this Arctic front will be very light and could occur
Monday night. With the colder temps and limited moisture, only pcpn
expected will be flurries. Also believe this will be across the
northern 2/3rds of the CWA, leaving the southeastern CWA dry as the
area flurries moves east.

Temps will be around normal tomorrow and Monday, but then drop to
below normal for Tue as the Arctic cold high pressure moves in.

Cold, dry Arctic high pressure will dominate the area for days 3-5,
but as the high pressure modifies and moves into southeastern US,
temps will begin to warm gradually and a weather system will develop
in the southwestern US and begin to move out into the plains. With
high pressure to the east and a surface low pressure area to the
west, warmer air will not be the only thing to return to the area.
Moisture will also return and this will bring pcpn to the area as
the moisture interacts with a warm front and lifts northward into
the area. P-type could be very interesting and be dependent on the
surface temperature and temps in the lower levels. Models
forecasting temps above zero at 850mb over the area, which would
indicate rain. However, surface temps look to be below freezing Fri
night; and this could mean frozen pcpn possible. Considering Fri
through Sat is Day6-7, will not get too detailed on pcpn type and
just go with snow or rain, or a mix of rain and snow. Thinking
mostly rain on Friday with a mix in the north, then a mix becoming
all snow on Fri night, and then all snow in the east on Sat. Am
expecting the p-type to change over the next several days, and when
the event becomes better defined by the models and closer.

As mentioned earlier, temps will start cold and then gradually warm
during the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

The back edge of the precip shield is making steady progress to
the E-SE, with just DEC and CMI expected to see a rain-snow mix
ending between 01z-02z. Any IFR clouds at DEC should lift to MVFR
and remain there the rest of the evening. Some lifting of the
cloud ceiling to VFR is possible from W to E after midnight,
reaching PIA around 08z and CMI by 12z. Colder air filtering in by
sunrise will push low temps below freezing, so some travel
surfaces could see freezing of standing water, despite relatively
warm ground temps to start.

NW winds will dip below 10kt early this evening and remain there
for the remainder of the TAF period.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 602 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
307 PM CST

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION...USHERING IN MUCH
COOLER AIR ALONG WITH SOME SCT LIGHT PCPN.  AS OF 230PM CDT...THE
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...TO
EAST-CENTRAL IL...TO SERN MO.  WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO ARND 30
MPH FOLLOWING THE FROPA WHILE VEERING FROM SWLY TO WLY.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY DROPPING OFF WITH THE FROPA AND THE BULK OF
THE PCPN IS POST-FRONTAL AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS SET UP ALONG
AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE.  SOME SCT RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER
NWRN IN AND ECNTRL IL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AS COOLER AIR FILTERS
IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...LIQUID PCPN IN THE POST-SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SOME GRAPPLE.  THE SHARPER TEMPERATURE DROPOFF WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SECONDARY TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURGE OF COOLER AIR PUSHED ACROSS THE EVENING WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO WLY-WNWLY.  ANY LINGERING PCPN SHOULD
PUSH END OVER NWRN IL-ECNTRL IL DURG THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM ARND 20F OVER THE ROCKFORD
AREA TO THE UPPER 20S EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR.

KREIN

&&

.LONG TERM...
307 PM CST

SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS A
SIGNAL OF A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS OF RECENT DAYS BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS THE
SHORT-WAVELENGTH...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH SHEARS OUT INTO BROAD WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.  THE GENERAL
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR A
SLOW COOLING TREND UNDER BROAD...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.  A
STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR WITH A SERIES OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES
WILL USHER IN THE TRUE COLD AIR BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING DROPPING OFF INTO THE LOWER TEENS OVER
THE ROCKFORD AREA TO AROUND 20F EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR.  THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SET UP TO MORE ZONAL OVER THE SRN CONUS
AS THE MAIN JET PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH WHILE POLAR-SOURCED
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK.  THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ALSO BECOME LESS
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A CUT OFF
LOW DIGGING INTO SRN CALIFORNIA AND VERY SLOWLY TRACKING EWD THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY LATE NEXT WEEK WHILE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND GREATER
ANTILLES.  THE SLOWING PROGRESSION TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL IN
TURN SET UP A PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES KEEPING
A STEADY STREAM OF SEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION.  THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
TRIES TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE SNOW IN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT.
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...
PERHAPS A  DUSTING WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGIONS...A PERIOD OF GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INITIALLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE MONDAY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO THE EAST OVER NWRN
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS FLOW BACKS MORE NWLY.
IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO DISCUSS ACCUMULATIONS WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AT THIS POINT...BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME MEASURABLE
ACCUMULATION.  MIDWEEK SHOULD BE DRY...BUT WITH THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SERN CONUS.  BY LATE NEXT WEEK...THE
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE CUT OFF LOW DROPPING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  HOWEVER...WHILE THE LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TREND...THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF OR GEM.  GIVEN THAT SOUTHWEST CUT-OFF LOWS TEND TO LINGER
LONGER THAN THE MODELS LIKE TO FORECAST...HAVE TRENDED THE LONGER
TERM FORECAST CLOSER TO THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS TREND EVEN SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  SO...WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE LEVELS WITH TEMPERATURES
CONDUCIVE TO SNOW FOR NOW.

KREIN

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* MVFR CIGS SCATTERING TO VFR.

BMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO OUR SOUTHWEST BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND MODELS SHOW SOME HINT THAT DRY ADVECTION AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW WILL ALLOW CIGS TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT THOUGH
WOULDNT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF CIGS PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. IF
THIS DOES END UP BEING THE CASE...EXPECT THE WOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF
PERIOD AND SHOULD GENERALLY UNDERGO A WEAKENING TREND AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES THE AREA.

BMD


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING RETURN TO VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS.

BMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...CHC SNOW LATE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
FRIDAY...CHC SNOW. MVFR/IFR PSBL.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...
336 PM CST

AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REMAINING AREAS OVER THE LAKE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR OVER THE WATER...A ONE TO
THREE HOUR WINDOW OF GALES/GUSTS DID OCCUR THIS PAST AFTERNOON
OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE. THE PEAK OF THESE HIGHEST GUSTS HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED AND EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN SPEEDS FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD. NONETHELESS...A BRIEF GALE FORCE GUST CANT BE RULED OUT
HERE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. A WEST NORTHWEST WIND CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...AS WINDS DIMINISH AND WAVES
SUBSIDE. A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED OVER THE
ENTIRE LAKE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 10 PM
     SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
551 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

Low clouds, drizzle, light rain showers still ongoing across the
forecast area this afternoon.  Cold front about out of ILX
area...just NW of Lawrenceville.  Some flakes mixing into the precip
on the extreme NW edge of the post frontal echos on radar.  Front
progression somewhat steady although running into more parallel flow
aloft.  Cold dense air from the NW really colder behind the post
frontal precip spread across the radar mosaic.  Timing of the cold
air a minor concern as time progresses.  Ground temps still close to
40 degrees, but with the arrival of the freezing temps, some
elevated surfaces could develop some slick spots. The arrival of the
coldest air will be after the precip has come to an end...so
freezing should be confined to the  residual moisture/puddles from
today`s drizzle/rain. Another issue with the overnight forecast is
the cloud cover. GFS is quick to break it out...a little faster than
is currently represented on sat imagery.  NAM is far cloudier,
trapping the moisture in the boundary layer and preventing the mix
out entirely.  RUC looking more like the NAM with representing the
developing inversion behind the boundary.  Plenty of dry air up
there, but how quickly it will erode through the clouds is a huge
question mark.  Covered in cirrus all day, not convinced the diurnal
influence on the clouds is enough to erode them at sunset.
Considering how quickly sunset is approaching, going to split the
difference more or less with a slower clearing out...but not quite
as trapped as the NAM. Some breaking up could be seen in the far NW,
and forecast low temps are considerably cooler as a result.
However, going cloudier overall through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

High pressure behind the front will bring dry weather to the area
for tomorrow through Monday. However, this mild high pressure area
will be temporary as a stronger/colder high pressure area drops into
the region Tuesday. A weak boundary will be between these two high
pressure areas, but it will have very little moisture to work with.
This will be an Arctic front with much colder air behind it. Any
precip with this Arctic front will be very light and could occur
Monday night. With the colder temps and limited moisture, only pcpn
expected will be flurries. Also believe this will be across the
northern 2/3rds of the CWA, leaving the southeastern CWA dry as the
area flurries moves east.

Temps will be around normal tomorrow and Monday, but then drop to
below normal for Tue as the Arctic cold high pressure moves in.

Cold, dry Arctic high pressure will dominate the area for days 3-5,
but as the high pressure modifies and moves into southeastern US,
temps will begin to warm gradually and a weather system will develop
in the southwestern US and begin to move out into the plains. With
high pressure to the east and a surface low pressure area to the
west, warmer air will not be the only thing to return to the area.
Moisture will also return and this will bring pcpn to the area as
the moisture interacts with a warm front and lifts northward into
the area. P-type could be very interesting and be dependent on the
surface temperature and temps in the lower levels. Models
forecasting temps above zero at 850mb over the area, which would
indicate rain. However, surface temps look to be below freezing Fri
night; and this could mean frozen pcpn possible. Considering Fri
through Sat is Day6-7, will not get too detailed on pcpn type and
just go with snow or rain, or a mix of rain and snow. Thinking
mostly rain on Friday with a mix in the north, then a mix becoming
all snow on Fri night, and then all snow in the east on Sat. Am
expecting the p-type to change over the next several days, and when
the event becomes better defined by the models and closer.

As mentioned earlier, temps will start cold and then gradually warm
during the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

The back edge of the precip shield is making steady progress to
the E-SE, with just DEC and CMI expected to see a rain-snow mix
ending between 01z-02z. Any IFR clouds at DEC should lift to MVFR
and remain there the rest of the evening. Some lifting of the
cloud ceiling to VFR is possible from W to E after midnight,
reaching PIA around 08z and CMI by 12z. Colder air filtering in by
sunrise will push low temps below freezing, so some travel
surfaces could see freezing of standing water, despite relatively
warm ground temps to start.

NW winds will dip below 10kt early this evening and remain there
for the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 401 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
238 PM CST

THROUGH SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM CUBA UP THE ATLANTIC COAST
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS VERY LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY. A NARROW SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. A
CLOSED LOW WILL FORM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND
MOVE OVER NORTHERN IL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
MAKING IT TO QUEBEC SATURDAY EVENING.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SPREADS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA RECEIVING AMPLE SUNSHINE.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE AND MOVES IN.  WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING RIGHT
OVERHEAD...THINKING FOG OR DRIZZLE IS PROBABLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF A
MCHENRY TO JOLIET LINE.  ONLY HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT
COULD SEE VSBYS IN SOME AREAS DROP TO AROUND OR LESS THAN ONE MILE
DUE TO FOG OR DRIZZLE.

RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVES IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING...AND LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE THE PRECIP WILL
MOVE IN QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD HIGH
POP/LOW QPF SITUATION. HAVE AN INCREASING POP TREND FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.  LIGHT
RAIN SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTHEAST.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FALLING FROM THE LATE
MORNING HOURS ON BEHIND THE LOWS COLD FRONT. HOWEVER AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-55 WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.  TEMPS
FALL INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE
30S...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE.

JEE

&&

.LONG TERM...
238 PM CST

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT EAST OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
SUNDAY...AND A VORTICITY STREAMER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT COINCIDED WITH THE VORT STREAMER
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
COLD FRONT...AND FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTH TO THE GULF STATES THURSDAY.

CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LOW TEMPS
IN THE 20S.  FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE A LITTLE QPF. COLD AIR MASSES
SUCH AS THIS ONE CAN USUALLY SQUEEZE OUT ANY MOISTURE LINGERING IN
THE AIR SO HAVE HIGHER POPS WHERE MODELS FEATURED QPF AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION IF
ANY AT ALL.  NORTH WINDS DOWN THE LAKE MAY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OVER NW INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE A COUPLE
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW.

THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S MONDAY THEN ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL IL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA.  BRISK NW
WINDS WILL CREATE BELOW ZERO WINDCHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THE WHOLE CWA FEELS THE CHILL WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 20 DEGREES BUT GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S THURSDAY.  LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THEN FEATURES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM BRINGING US
SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

JEE

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...

* MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND LOWERING TO IFR OVERNIGHT.
* CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
* STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
  AFTERNOON.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...

STREAKS OF MVFR STRATUS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN. EXPECT INTERMITTENT SCT-BKN
COVERAGE AS THEY DEVELOP IN THE 025-030 RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH EXPANSION TO MORE SOLID COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING WITH
BASES ALSO LOWERING.

MDB

FROM 18Z...

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS. AS THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES EAST TODAY...NEW
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER MISSOURI AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WITH SOME GUSTS INTO
THE UPPER TEEN/LOWER 20KT RANGE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND QUICKLY INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN THERE COULD
BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 30 KT...BEFORE RELAXING BACK
INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE THROUGH SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING.

CIGS RANGING FROM 2KFT TO 4KFT ARE SPREADING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY LOWER...EVENTUALLY INTO
IFR OVERNIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS TREND IS HIGH BUT THE
TIMING AND SPECIFIC CIGS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE TWEAKS WITH LATER
FORECASTS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...ITS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS COULD
LOWER INTO LIFR...ESPECIALLY AT RFD. CIGS WILL THEN LIFT INTO MVFR
AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND POSSIBLY BECOME VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS
SOMEWHAT LOW. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT BUT COULD BE A
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. OPTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT
RAIN/DRIZZLE MENTION FOR NOW. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO LIKELY LOWER
INTO MVFR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND IF DRIZZLE BECOMES
PREVAILING...IN ADDITION TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...VIS
COULD EASILY DROP TO 1-2SM WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...

* HIGH FOR CIG TRENDS...MEDIUM FOR TIMING AND SPECIFIC HEIGHTS.
* MEDIUM FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD...MEDIUM FOR TIMING CHANGES.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS WITH BREEZY NW WINDS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY...SCHC -SHSN. MVFR PSBL. N TO NE WINDS.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. BREEZY SW WINDS AT TIMES.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...
324 PM CST

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS HELPING TO
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT THESE
DIFFERENCES TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF ARE ALREADY
SLOWLY BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AS THIS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF TONIGHT WITH
MORE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...WHILE SOUTHERLY
WINDS PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. NEW LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH/BOUNDARY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY. EXPECT SPEEDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING. EXPECT SPEEDS TO THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THIS LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM
     SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...10 AM
     SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 324 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
238 PM CST

THROUGH SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM CUBA UP THE ATLANTIC COAST
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS VERY LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY. A NARROW SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. A
CLOSED LOW WILL FORM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND
MOVE OVER NORTHERN IL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
MAKING IT TO QUEBEC SATURDAY EVENING.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SPREADS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA RECEIVING AMPLE SUNSHINE.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE AND MOVES IN.  WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING RIGHT
OVERHEAD...THINKING FOG OR DRIZZLE IS PROBABLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF A
MCHENRY TO JOLIET LINE.  ONLY HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT
COULD SEE VSBYS IN SOME AREAS DROP TO AROUND OR LESS THAN ONE MILE
DUE TO FOG OR DRIZZLE.

RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVES IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING...AND LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE THE PRECIP WILL
MOVE IN QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD HIGH
POP/LOW QPF SITUATION. HAVE AN INCREASING POP TREND FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.  LIGHT
RAIN SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTHEAST.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FALLING FROM THE LATE
MORNING HOURS ON BEHIND THE LOWS COLD FRONT. HOWEVER AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-55 WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.  TEMPS
FALL INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE
30S...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE.

JEE

&&

.LONG TERM...
238 PM CST

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT EAST OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
SUNDAY...AND A VORTICITY STREAMER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT COINCIDED WITH THE VORT STREAMER
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
COLD FRONT...AND FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTH TO THE GULF STATES THURSDAY.

CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LOW TEMPS
IN THE 20S.  FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE A LITTLE QPF. COLD AIR MASSES
SUCH AS THIS ONE CAN USUALLY SQUEEZE OUT ANY MOISTURE LINGERING IN
THE AIR SO HAVE HIGHER POPS WHERE MODELS FEATURED QPF AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION IF
ANY AT ALL.  NORTH WINDS DOWN THE LAKE MAY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OVER NW INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE A COUPLE
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW.

THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S MONDAY THEN ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL IL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA.  BRISK NW
WINDS WILL CREATE BELOW ZERO WINDCHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THE WHOLE CWA FEELS THE CHILL WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 20 DEGREES BUT GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S THURSDAY.  LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THEN FEATURES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM BRINGING US
SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

JEE

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND LOWERING TO IFR OVERNIGHT.
* CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
* GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
* STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
  AFTERNOON. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS. AS THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES EAST TODAY...NEW
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER MISSOURI AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WITH SOME GUSTS INTO
THE UPPER TEEN/LOWER 20KT RANGE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND QUICKLY INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN THERE COULD
BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 30 KT...BEFORE RELAXING BACK
INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE THROUGH SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING.

CIGS RANGING FROM 2KFT TO 4KFT ARE SPREADING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY LOWER...EVENTUALLY INTO
IFR OVERNIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS TREND IS HIGH BUT THE
TIMING AND SPECIFIC CIGS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE TWEAKS WITH LATER
FORECASTS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...ITS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS COULD
LOWER INTO LIFR...ESPECIALLY AT RFD. CIGS WILL THEN LIFT INTO MVFR
AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND POSSIBLY BECOME VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS
SOMEWHAT LOW. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT BUT COULD BE A
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. OPTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT
RAIN/DRIZZLE MENTION FOR NOW. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO LIKELY LOWER
INTO MVFR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND IF DRIZZLE BECOMES
PREVAILING...IN ADDITION TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...VIS
COULD EASILY DROP TO 1-2SM WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH FOR CIG TRENDS...MEDIUM FOR TIMING AND SPECIFIC HEIGHTS.
* MEDIUM FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD...MEDIUM FOR TIMING CHANGES. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS WITH BREEZY NW WINDS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY...SCHC -SHSN. MVFR PSBL. N TO NE WINDS.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. BREEZY SW WINDS AT TIMES.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...
324 PM CST

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS HELPING TO
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT THESE
DIFFERENCES TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF ARE ALREADY
SLOWLY BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AS THIS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF TONIGHT WITH
MORE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...WHILE SOUTHERLY
WINDS PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. NEW LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH/BOUNDARY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY. EXPECT SPEEDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING. EXPECT SPEEDS TO THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THIS LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM
     SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...10 AM
     SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 238 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
238 PM CST

THROUGH SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM CUBA UP THE ATLANTIC COAST
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS VERY LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY. A NARROW SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. A
CLOSED LOW WILL FORM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND
MOVE OVER NORTHERN IL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
MAKING IT TO QUEBEC SATURDAY EVENING.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SPREADS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA RECEIVING AMPLE SUNSHINE.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE AND MOVES IN.  WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING RIGHT
OVERHEAD...THINKING FOG OR DRIZZLE IS PROBABLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF A
MCHENRY TO JOLIET LINE.  ONLY HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT
COULD SEE VSBYS IN SOME AREAS DROP TO AROUND OR LESS THAN ONE MILE
DUE TO FOG OR DRIZZLE.

RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVES IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING...AND LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE THE PRECIP WILL
MOVE IN QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD HIGH
POP/LOW QPF SITUATION. HAVE AN INCREASING POP TREND FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.  LIGHT
RAIN SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTHEAST.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FALLING FROM THE LATE
MORNING HOURS ON BEHIND THE LOWS COLD FRONT. HOWEVER AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-55 WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.  TEMPS
FALL INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE
30S...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE.

JEE

&&

.LONG TERM...
238 PM CST

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT EAST OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
SUNDAY...AND A VORTICITY STREAMER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT COINCIDED WITH THE VORT STREAMER
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
COLD FRONT...AND FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTH TO THE GULF STATES THURSDAY.

CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LOW TEMPS
IN THE 20S.  FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE A LITTLE QPF. COLD AIR MASSES
SUCH AS THIS ONE CAN USUALLY SQUEEZE OUT ANY MOISTURE LINGERING IN
THE AIR SO HAVE HIGHER POPS WHERE MODELS FEATURED QPF AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION IF
ANY AT ALL.  NORTH WINDS DOWN THE LAKE MAY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OVER NW INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE A COUPLE
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW.

THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S MONDAY THEN ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL IL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA.  BRISK NW
WINDS WILL CREATE BELOW ZERO WINDCHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THE WHOLE CWA FEELS THE CHILL WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 20 DEGREES BUT GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S THURSDAY.  LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THEN FEATURES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM BRINGING US
SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

JEE

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND LOWERING TO IFR OVERNIGHT.
* CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
* GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
* STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
  AFTERNOON. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS. AS THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES EAST TODAY...NEW
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER MISSOURI AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WITH SOME GUSTS INTO
THE UPPER TEEN/LOWER 20KT RANGE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND QUICKLY INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN THERE COULD
BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 30 KT...BEFORE RELAXING BACK
INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE THROUGH SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING.

CIGS RANGING FROM 2KFT TO 4KFT ARE SPREADING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY LOWER...EVENTUALLY INTO
IFR OVERNIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS TREND IS HIGH BUT THE
TIMING AND SPECIFIC CIGS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE TWEAKS WITH LATER
FORECASTS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...ITS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS COULD
LOWER INTO LIFR...ESPECIALLY AT RFD. CIGS WILL THEN LIFT INTO MVFR
AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND POSSIBLY BECOME VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS
SOMEWHAT LOW. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT BUT COULD BE A
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. OPTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT
RAIN/DRIZZLE MENTION FOR NOW. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO LIKELY LOWER
INTO MVFR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND IF DRIZZLE BECOMES
PREVAILING...IN ADDITION TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...VIS
COULD EASILY DROP TO 1-2SM WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH FOR CIG TRENDS...MEDIUM FOR TIMING AND SPECIFIC HEIGHTS.
* MEDIUM FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD...MEDIUM FOR TIMING CHANGES. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS WITH BREEZY NW WINDS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY...SCHC -SHSN. MVFR PSBL. N TO NE WINDS.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. BREEZY SW WINDS AT TIMES.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...
234 AM CST

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STRETCHING UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
SHIFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY WHICH WILL EASE THE
CURRENT GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE THAT IS DRIVING SOME STRONGER
SOUTHERLIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...WHERE WINDS TO 30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. A
SECONDARY LOW MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REACH CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY THEN NORTHEAST OF LAKE
HURON SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. MODEST HIGH
PRESSURE EMERGES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL DRIVE A PERIOD OF
WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 KT WITH A MODIFIED COLD FRONT. STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...BRINGING
COLDER NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKE WHICH MAY BECOME
GUSTY AT TIMES. BEFORE THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A
WEAK TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE LAKE BY
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MID-WEEK.

KMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM
     SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...10 AM
     SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1027 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. A DRY
SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION
AROUND TUESDAY. IN THE LONG TERM AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING DRY AND COLD WEATHER. HOWEVER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN THIS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 845 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST PROGRESSION OF BAND OF PRECIP INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SNOW...PERIODS OF EITHER...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET AS WELL IN MOST
AREAS...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY DO SO FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IF NOT ALL
NIGHT ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO SPED UP ENDING
OF PRECIP A BIT BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

TRENDS AMONG THE MODELS REMAIN VIRTUALLY THE SAME...WITH THE EURO
AND NAM BEING MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND GEM. AS
USUAL...THE SREF AND HRRR TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE FASTER AND
SLOWER SOLUTIONS...SO LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THIS GUIDANCE WHEN
CREATING THE POPS FOR TONIGHT. ALSO TRIED TO WORK IN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY ON THE RADAR SCOPE WITH ONE WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL LATER THE EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. WHILE THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO APPROACH
THE CENTRAL INDIANA AREA FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS AREA WILL
MAKE IT/S WAY THROUGH THE BULK OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROM 00Z TO 08Z.
WITH A FEW COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SEEING SOME
LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING...BOTH OF WHICH
WILL BE TRICKY. ALL OF THE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN
WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND
PUSH TOWARD THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY 2-3 AM. BEST CHANCE IN TERMS OF
PRECIP TYPE ARE STILL A -RA/SN MIX...CANNOT RULE OUT ANY SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES HOWEVER NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THIS MIX WILL
WORK IT/S WAY TOWARD THE E/SE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE PRECIP
BEHIND IT BEGINS TO WIND DOWN AND DRY OUT OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS 31-36.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

AS MENTIONED IN ABOVE DISCUSSION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME REMNANT
MIXTURE OF -RA/SN FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SEVERAL OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE THAT FRONT MOVES FARTHER FROM THE AREA
AND DRIER AND COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
LOW CHANCE POPS THERE AT LEAST THROUGH 14-15Z SUNDAY MORNING.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE BETTER
HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OVER THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOWER OR MIDDLE 20S MONDAY
NIGHT AS A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE POPS AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE STARTING FRIDAY. PRIOR TO THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE AS STRONG COLD WESTERN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO END THE OLD YEAR AND START THE NEW
ONE.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL
BE OVER NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA DURING THE EVENING OF THE FIRST DAY OF
2015. HOWEVER...THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE RAPIDLY WITH THE MUCH
QUICKER 12Z GFS BRINGING A STRONGER SURFACE SYSTEM BUT WEAK UPPER
WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS EVEN A WEAKER BUT MUCH SLOWER WAVE LIFT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BY NEXT SATURDAY EVENING. THE EURO ALSO HAS THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE 12Z GFS POSITION SATURDAY EVENING.
THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE THE GFS
HAS IT OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DESPITE ALL THESE DIFFERENCES...BOTH
MODELS START THE QPF ON FRIDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. MEANWHILE...THE EURO WAS HOLDING MORE QPF AROUND ON
SUNDAY THAN THE GFS. SO...STILL EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  WITH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
LOW...WILL ACCEPT THE REGIONAL BLEND THAT KEEPS DECENT POPS AROUND
NEXT SATURDAY AS HINTED AT BY THE EURO.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES WITH THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES. CONFIDENCE NOT GOOD AS TO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL BE IN SPACE AND TIME. HOWEVER...NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE FROZEN OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION THEN THE SOUTHWESTERN ONES ON FRIDAY BASED ON
THERMAL PROFILES FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
WOULD HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF MIXED OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION THAN THE
SOUTHEAST AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF
THE SURFACE SYSTEM. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET COULD POSSIBLY MIX IN AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES. DO NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY COME
CLOSER TOGETHER IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20S LOOK
GOOD ON NEW YEAR`S DAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S THEREAFTER.
MEANWHILE...NEW YEARS EVE NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR THE FIRST SUNRISE OF THE YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S AND 30S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATED TAFS FOR 280300Z/...

ISSUED AT 1019 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ENDING TRENDS ON RADAR. VERY
REAR EDGE HAS CONTAINED SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET IN SOME LOCATIONS
BUT THESE LIKELY LAST LESS THAN 30 MINUTES AT ANY LOCATION. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF FROZEN FOR THAT LAST PERIOD BEFORE IT ENDS.

KLAF PRECIP HAS ALREADY ENDED WHILE KHUF WILL END BY
280430Z...KIND PRECIP TO END BY 280600Z AND KBMG BY 280700Z.

VISIBILITIES IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR HAVE BEEN IMPROVING TO 6+
MILES. CLOUD DECKS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE VARIABLE AND BETTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT YET STILL EXPECT A LOWER DECK TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF BELOW 2000 FEET SEVERAL HOURS AFTER PRECIP ENDS.

WINDS APPEAR TO BE SETTLED DOWN TO AT OR JUST UNDER 10 KTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TUCEK

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 845 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. A DRY
SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION
AROUND TUESDAY. IN THE LONG TERM AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING DRY AND COLD WEATHER. HOWEVER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN THIS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 845 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST PROGRESSION OF BAND OF PRECIP INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SNOW...PERIODS OF EITHER...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET AS WELL IN MOST
AREAS...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY DO SO FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IF NOT ALL
NIGHT ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO SPED UP ENDING
OF PRECIP A BIT BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

TRENDS AMONG THE MODELS REMAIN VIRTUALLY THE SAME...WITH THE EURO
AND NAM BEING MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND GEM. AS
USUAL...THE SREF AND HRRR TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE FASTER AND
SLOWER SOLUTIONS...SO LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THIS GUIDANCE WHEN
CREATING THE POPS FOR TONIGHT. ALSO TRIED TO WORK IN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY ON THE RADAR SCOPE WITH ONE WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL LATER THE EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. WHILE THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO APPROACH
THE CENTRAL INDIANA AREA FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS AREA WILL
MAKE IT/S WAY THROUGH THE BULK OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROM 00Z TO 08Z.
WITH A FEW COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SEEING SOME
LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING...BOTH OF WHICH
WILL BE TRICKY. ALL OF THE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN
WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND
PUSH TOWARD THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY 2-3 AM. BEST CHANCE IN TERMS OF
PRECIP TYPE ARE STILL A -RA/SN MIX...CANNOT RULE OUT ANY SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES HOWEVER NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THIS MIX WILL
WORK IT/S WAY TOWARD THE E/SE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE PRECIP
BEHIND IT BEGINS TO WIND DOWN AND DRY OUT OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS 31-36.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

AS MENTIONED IN ABOVE DISCUSSION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME REMNANT
MIXTURE OF -RA/SN FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SEVERAL OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE THAT FRONT MOVES FARTHER FROM THE AREA
AND DRIER AND COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
LOW CHANCE POPS THERE AT LEAST THROUGH 14-15Z SUNDAY MORNING.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE BETTER
HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OVER THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOWER OR MIDDLE 20S MONDAY
NIGHT AS A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE POPS AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE STARTING FRIDAY. PRIOR TO THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE AS STRONG COLD WESTERN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO END THE OLD YEAR AND START THE NEW
ONE.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL
BE OVER NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA DURING THE EVENING OF THE FIRST DAY OF
2015. HOWEVER...THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE RAPIDLY WITH THE MUCH
QUICKER 12Z GFS BRINGING A STRONGER SURFACE SYSTEM BUT WEAK UPPER
WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS EVEN A WEAKER BUT MUCH SLOWER WAVE LIFT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BY NEXT SATURDAY EVENING. THE EURO ALSO HAS THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE 12Z GFS POSITION SATURDAY EVENING.
THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE THE GFS
HAS IT OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DESPITE ALL THESE DIFFERENCES...BOTH
MODELS START THE QPF ON FRIDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. MEANWHILE...THE EURO WAS HOLDING MORE QPF AROUND ON
SUNDAY THAN THE GFS. SO...STILL EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  WITH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
LOW...WILL ACCEPT THE REGIONAL BLEND THAT KEEPS DECENT POPS AROUND
NEXT SATURDAY AS HINTED AT BY THE EURO.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES WITH THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES. CONFIDENCE NOT GOOD AS TO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL BE IN SPACE AND TIME. HOWEVER...NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE FROZEN OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION THEN THE SOUTHWESTERN ONES ON FRIDAY BASED ON
THERMAL PROFILES FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
WOULD HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF MIXED OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION THAN THE
SOUTHEAST AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF
THE SURFACE SYSTEM. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET COULD POSSIBLY MIX IN AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES. DO NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY COME
CLOSER TOGETHER IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20S LOOK
GOOD ON NEW YEAR`S DAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S THEREAFTER.
MEANWHILE...NEW YEARS EVE NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR THE FIRST SUNRISE OF THE YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S AND 30S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 280000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 604 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD JUST PASS KIND BY
280000Z AND KBMG BY 280100Z. OBSERVED WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONGER
BEHIND FRONT THAN MODEL DATA SO WILL KEEP THEM CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS.
A 20 KT GUSTINESS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A 30 MINUTE PERIOD RIGHT
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WITHIN AN HOUR OF FRONTS PASSAGE CLOUD DECKS BELOW 500 FEET RAISE
TO JUST OVER 1000 FEET WHILE VISIBILITY CLIMBS TO 6+ DESPITE LIGHT RAIN.

ONCE RAINS END DECKS CLIMB TO ALMOST 2000 FEET BUT SHOULD REMAIN
OVERCAST UNTIL AFTER 281800Z WHEN SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO SCATTER
THEM OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES BEFORE SUNDOWN SUNDAY.

AFTER WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS TONIGHT THEY SHOULD STAY JUST
BELOW 10 KNOTS AFTER RAINS END.

EXPECT RAINS TO END KLAF AND KHUF AROUND 280500Z...KIND BY 280700Z
AND KBMG BY 280900Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TUCEK

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 612 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. A DRY
SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION
AROUND TUESDAY. IN THE LONG TERM AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING DRY AND COLD WEATHER. HOWEVER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN THIS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

TRENDS AMONG THE MODELS REMAIN VIRTUALLY THE SAME...WITH THE EURO
AND NAM BEING MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND GEM. AS
USUAL...THE SREF AND HRRR TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE FASTER AND
SLOWER SOLUTIONS...SO LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THIS GUIDANCE WHEN
CREATING THE POPS FOR TONIGHT. ALSO TRIED TO WORK IN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY ON THE RADAR SCOPE WITH ONE WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL LATER THE EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. WHILE THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO APPROACH
THE CENTRAL INDIANA AREA FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS AREA WILL
MAKE IT/S WAY THROUGH THE BULK OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROM 00Z TO 08Z.
WITH A FEW COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SEEING SOME
LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING...BOTH OF WHICH
WILL BE TRICKY. ALL OF THE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN
WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND
PUSH TOWARD THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY 2-3 AM. BEST CHANCE IN TERMS OF
PRECIP TYPE ARE STILL A -RA/SN MIX...CANNOT RULE OUT ANY SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES HOWEVER NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THIS MIX WILL
WORK IT/S WAY TOWARD THE E/SE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE PRECIP
BEHIND IT BEGINS TO WIND DOWN AND DRY OUT OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS 31-36.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

AS MENTIONED IN ABOVE DISCUSSION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME REMNANT
MIXTURE OF -RA/SN FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SEVERAL OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE THAT FRONT MOVES FARTHER FROM THE AREA
AND DRIER AND COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
LOW CHANCE POPS THERE AT LEAST THROUGH 14-15Z SUNDAY MORNING.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE BETTER
HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OVER THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOWER OR MIDDLE 20S MONDAY
NIGHT AS A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 240 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE POPS AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE STARTING FRIDAY. PRIOR TO THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE AS STRONG COLD WESTERN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO END THE OLD YEAR AND START THE NEW
ONE.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL
BE OVER NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA DURING THE EVENING OF THE FIRST DAY OF
2015. HOWEVER...THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE RAPIDLY WITH THE MUCH
QUICKER 12Z GFS BRINGING A STRONGER SURFACE SYSTEM BUT WEAK UPPER
WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS EVEN A WEAKER BUT MUCH SLOWER WAVE LIFT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BY NEXT SATURDAY EVENING. THE EURO ALSO HAS THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE 12Z GFS POSITION SATURDAY EVENING.
THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE THE GFS
HAS IT OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DESPITE ALL THESE DIFFERENCES...BOTH
MODELS START THE QPF ON FRIDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. MEANWHILE...THE EURO WAS HOLDING MORE QPF AROUND ON
SUNDAY THAN THE GFS. SO...STILL EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  WITH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
LOW...WILL ACCEPT THE REGIONAL BLEND THAT KEEPS DECENT POPS AROUND
NEXT SATURDAY AS HINTED AT BY THE EURO.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES WITH THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES. CONFIDENCE NOT GOOD AS TO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL BE IN SPACE AND TIME. HOWEVER...NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE FROZEN OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION THEN THE SOUTHWESTERN ONES ON FRIDAY BASED ON
THERMAL PROFILES FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
WOULD HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF MIXED OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION THAN THE
SOUTHEAST AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF
THE SURFACE SYSTEM. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET COULD POSSIBLY MIX IN AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES. DO NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY COME
CLOSER TOGETHER IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20S LOOK
GOOD ON NEW YEAR`S DAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S THEREAFTER.
MEANWHILE...NEW YEARS EVE NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR THE FIRST SUNRISE OF THE YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S AND 30S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 280000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 604 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD JUST PASS KIND BY
280000Z AND KBMG BY 280100Z. OBSERVED WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONGER
BEHIND FRONT THAN MODEL DATA SO WILL KEEP THEM CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS.
A 20 KT GUSTINESS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A 30 MINUTE PERIOD RIGHT
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WITHIN AN HOUR OF FRONTS PASSAGE CLOUD DECKS BELOW 500 FEET RAISE
TO JUST OVER 1000 FEET WHILE VISIBILITY CLIMBS TO 6+ DESPITE LIGHT RAIN.

ONCE RAINS END DECKS CLIMB TO ALMOST 2000 FEET BUT SHOULD REMAIN
OVERCAST UNTIL AFTER 281800Z WHEN SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO SCATTER
THEM OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES BEFORE SUNDOWN SUNDAY.

AFTER WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS TONIGHT THEY SHOULD STAY JUST
BELOW 10 KNOTS AFTER RAINS END.

EXPECT RAINS TO END KLAF AND KHUF AROUND 280500Z...KIND BY 280700Z
AND KBMG BY 280900Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TUCEK

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 335 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE NAM MODEL SEEMED TO OUTPERFORM THE HRRR WITH RESPECT TO
PLACEMENT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MODEL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE USED AS A GUIDE IN COMBINATION WITH CURRENT TRENDS TO
PLACE POPS AND QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE REST AFTERNOON/EVENING. A
DECISION WILL NEED TO BE MADE WHETHER TO EXTEND EITHER IN TIME AND
AREAL COVERAGE OR DROP THE ADVISORY ALTOGETHER  AT 4 PM. AT THIS
TIME, EXTENSION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY. THE NAM INDICATED AN
INTSENSIFICATION OF FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH NON FAVORABLE AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW FOR
VERTICAL MOTION. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM THE
DISSIPATION OF VERTICAL MOTION, CLOUD CEILING HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A
BIG CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR SEES A BUMP IN DEW POINT TEMPERATURES (WHICH THE NAM SEEMS TO
REFLECT), AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WELL ENOUGH MIXED AND SLIGHTLY
DOWNSLOPED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS SUNDAY BRINGING ABOUT A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A LACK OF
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL INCREASE A LITTLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SETTING UP A
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
CONINCIDE WITH ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AS THE FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS AFTER EXITING THE
TROUGH AXIS OUT WEST. AS A RESULT, SNOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW SPREADING EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL, WEAK QPF SIGNALS SUGGEST
LIGHTER AMOUNTS, IF ANY.

ALTHOUGH REBOUNDING SOMEWHAT, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR SLOW TO ERODE AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE
H85 0C ISOTHERM BEGINNING TO EDGE BACK TO THE NORTH BUT REMAINING
WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. EVEN WITH
DECREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE
30S(F) SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 40F STILL A POSSIBILITY CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PROJECT A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS COULD BE AS LOW AS THE TEENS(F)
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZDZ OR MIX OF FZDZ/SN WILL OCCUR BEFORE
CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE COLD AND SATURATED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CLOUD
SEEDING AND ALL SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. TAF MAY NEED OPT BE AMENDED
TO FOLLOW THIS TREND THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO AROUND
500 FEET DURING THE BRIEF SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
AT ALL THE TERMINALS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO AROUND 1000 FT OR
GREATER ONCE THE SNOW EPISODE ENDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  18  32  16  38 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  14  31  15  36 /  30   0   0   0
EHA  13  32  16  39 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  17  34  15  39 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  16  29  15  36 /  60   0   0   0
P28  21  38  18  41 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUSSELL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 307 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPED EAST OF HUGOTON AND ULYSSES EXTENDING
NORTH THROUGH THE GARDEN CITY AREA AND JUST EAST OF SCOTT CITY
THOUGH LANE COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECEDING THIS AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WAS A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH GENERALLY LITTLE IMPACT ITSELF.  BEST DUAL POL RADAR HOURLY
ESTIMATES CAME FROM NORTHERN FINNEY COUNTY AND SCOTT/LANE
COUNTIES, SUGGESTING HE BEST RATES OCCURRED IN THOSE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHWAY 83 NORTH FROM GARDEN CITY WAS COMPLETELY SNOW
COVERED. MOST RECENT CALLS TO THE TIGHTEN AREA INDICATED ONLY
UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE NAM MODEL SEEMED TO OUTPERFORM THE HRRR WITH RESPECT TO
PLACEMENT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MODEL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE USED AS A GUIDE IN COMBINATION WITH CURRENT TRENDS TO
PLACE POPS AND QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE REST AFTERNOON/EVENING. A
DECISION WILL NEED TO BE MADE WHETHER TO EXTEND EITHER IN TIME AND
AREAL COVERAGE OR DROP THE ADVISORY ALTOGETHER  AT 4 PM. AT THIS
TIME, EXTENSION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY. THE NAM INDICATED AN
INTSENSIFICATION OF FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH NON FAVORABLE AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW FOR
VERTICAL MOTION. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM THE
DISSIPATION OF VERTICAL MOTION, CLOUD CEILING HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A
BIG CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR SEES A BUMP IN DEW POINT TEMPERATURES (WHICH THE NAM SEEMS TO
REFLECT), AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WELL ENOUGH MIXED AND SLIGHTLY
DOWNSLOPED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY DRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER WESTERN KANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND SET UP A DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO HELP PUSH DOWN ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND BECOMES A LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MID WEEK THEN EJECTS EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM TREKS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS THIS WEEKEND LOOK TO REACH INTO
THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. HIGHS MONDAY
LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO
MID 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE TEENS ARE
THEN ANTICIPATED TUESDAY WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW ZERO ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN SLOWLY REBOUND TO THE 30S BY FRIDAY
WITH LOWS INCREASING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZDZ OR MIX OF FZDZ/SN WILL OCCUR BEFORE
CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE COLD AND SATURATED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CLOUD
SEEDING AND ALL SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. TAF MAY NEED OPT BE AMENDED
TO FOLLOW THIS TREND THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO AROUND
500 FEET DURING THE BRIEF SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
AT ALL THE TERMINALS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO AROUND 1000 FT OR
GREATER ONCE THE SNOW EPISODE ENDS THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  18  32  16  38 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  14  31  15  36 /  40   0   0   0
EHA  13  32  16  39 /  30   0   0   0
LBL  17  34  15  39 /  30   0   0   0
HYS  16  29  15  36 /  90   0   0   0
P28  21  38  18  41 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074-075-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 1030 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. THE HRRR SHOWED
THAT THE PCPN WOULD PUSH IN MOST EFFECTIVELY FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHILE THE FAR EAST STAYS NO WORSE THAN
SCATTERED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS ALONG WITH A NEW SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN EARLY ROUND OF
SHOWERS TO THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THESE HAVE BEEN BATTLING THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE AREA...BUT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH THE
GROUND WITH THE HEAVIER RETURNS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOISTEN UP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING WITH THE NEXT SURGE
AFTER MIDNIGHT LIKELY TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE ENTIRE CWA.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...ONCE THE RAIN MOVES IN PROPERLY...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CAPPED IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO FINE TUNE THE POP CHANCES AND INFUSE SOME OF THE
LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INTO THE T AND TD GRIDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT TO NDFD AND THE WEB SERVERS. A ZFP UPDATE WILL FOLLOW LATER
THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIDESPREAD RAINS ARE ON OUR DOORSTEP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AS OF 20Z
IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A SWATH OF RAIN MOVING UP FROM
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST OFF THE NC COAST IS RETREATING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.
HENCE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER STILL ARE PRESENT IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA A TAD LONGER...BUT AN
NEW DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL REINFORCE THE MOISTURE SURGE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY BY TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. MODELS SUPPORT THIS TREND AND AS SUCH...AM QUITE
CONFIDENT THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL MATERIALIZE TONIGHT AND HAVE
GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS.

THE STUBBORN RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING LATE MONDAY AS THE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS LIFTS INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD THOUGH...QUITE A STRONG MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP RAIN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BE SLOW ENOUGH TO EXIT BEHIND THE FRONT THAT COLDER AIR MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF INSTANCES OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN OR
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST BLUEGRASS COUNTIES AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING VIRGINIA. ANY INSTANCES THAT
DO OCCUR ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
OVERALL...A WET AND RAINY END TO THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING TO THE NEW
WEEK IS ON TAP.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

A COLD FRONT...AND WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...WILL
BE EXITING THE AREA TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY. BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS...WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. BASED ON
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH AROUND 12Z ON MONDAY. AFTER THAT...ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD
SPILL INTO THE REGION TO ALLOW SOME SNOW FLURRIES TO MIX WITH
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
TRANSITION BETWEEN PRECIP TYPES...SO THAT MODEL WAS USED TO CREATE
THE POPS AND PRECIP TYPES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE
PRECIP EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGIONS WEATHER THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY
POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO FORM IN THE SOUTHERN
JET STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES
EASTWARD...THE MODELS HAVE IT TAPPING INTO AMPLE GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHOULD THE MODELS PAN OUT...THE
FIRST PRECIP WOULD ENTER EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND NOON ON THURSDAY AND
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THERE. BY 2 OR 3Z FRIDAY...THE
SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO SOME COLDER AIR...ALLOWING FOR PRECIP ALONG THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO MIX WITH SNOW. THE
PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY AROUND 6Z FRIDAY AS MORE COLD
AIR SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTH. WARMER AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO PROGRESS
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING PRECIP TO
TRANSITION BACK TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN RAIN BY EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR THE TRANSITION TO SNOW. THEREFORE...HAVE ELECTED TO
GO WITH ONLY MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THIS OVERALL TREND UNTIL THE
DATA SETTLES ON A SOLUTION. THE COLDEST DAYS UPCOMING LOOK TO BE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS COLD AIR INVADES BEHIND THE INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DAYTIME HIGHS ON THOSE THREE DAYS MAY NOT RISE OUT
OF THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...WITH HIGH IN THE LOWER 40S ON TAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT MOST SITES WILL DEGRADE THROUGH THE
EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO
MVFR WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF SOLID RAIN MOVING IN AND THEN FALL INTO
THE IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT WHEN THE MOISTURE LADEN SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. RAIN WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO
AIRFIELD MINIMUMS BY 12Z OVER MUCH OF THE FA...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST SOME MINIMAL IMPROVEMENTS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE BULK
OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 518 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

WE WILL SEE SOME CHILLY AIR AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ARRIVE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THINKING TO THE GOING FORECAST. WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 40 STREAM
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW SCATTERED LIGHT
CONVECTIVE LOOKING RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. THESE SHOULD WILL LIKELY TRACK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR DEVELOP OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST
SATURDAY WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW AND COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS...
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 00Z SUNDAY ABOUT THE
TIME THE COLDER AIR IS ARRIVING. PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE SFC COLD
FRONT SHOULD TREND TOWARD JUST SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILES AND QUESTIONABLE
DGZ SATURATION. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
QUICK TO BUILD IN WHICH ACTUALLY LEADS TO DECENT PROSPECT FOR
SUNSHINE DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COLDER WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM
WITH CHCS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO
NOT LOOK TO BE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN THE FCST PERIOD FOR NOW. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AS IT WOULD NOT TAKE MAJOR
CHANGES TO BRING A BETTER POTENTIAL OF LAKE EFFECT.

THE CHC OF SNOW FOR SW LOWER ON MON DOES NOT LOOK REAL GOOD AT THIS
TIME. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FROM THE WNW ON MON. HOWEVER A STRONG 1050+ MB RIDGE TO OUR WEST
WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE LOWER LEVELS HERE. NE FLOW AND AN
EXTENSION OF THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE WILL LIMIT PCPN POTENTIAL.

THE PERIOD FROM TUE THROUGH THU THEN WILL FEATURE THE COLDEST TEMPS
OF THE LONG TERM. THE MON SHORT WAVE WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION OF
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TO MORE OF A NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ON THE NRLY AND EVENTUALLY NW
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE AIR WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT...HOWEVER WE WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE NRN BRANCH
OF THE JET. SHORT WAVES DIVING SE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF THE CWFA. THIS WILL LIMIT MOISTURE DEPTH SIGNIFICANTLY AND ALSO
THE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY.

LAKE EFFECT COULD BE MORE ROBUST IF THE UPPER JET AND THE ASSOCIATED
SHORT WAVES ARE ABLE TO DIVE JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. WE BELIEVE
THAT THE STRONG CUTOFF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND THE RIDGE
AHEAD OF IT WILL HOLD THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA.

WE COULD SEE THE INITIAL EFFECTS OF THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW START TO
MOVE IN AS EARLY AS NEXT FRI AS WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF
IT STARTS TO OVERRUN THE COLDER AIR EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE
MODELS TYPICALLY EJECT THESE SYSTEMS OUT TOO QUICK...SO WE WILL KEEP
THE CHC OF PCPN LOW AT THIS TIME FOR NEXT FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

ONCE AGAIN WARM AIR SURGING NORTHWARD WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO
ALL OF THE TAF SITES MOST OF THE DAY TIME HOURS OF SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR SOUTH BEND AND ARE EXPANDING
NORTHWARD. BY 03Z ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MVFR CIGS....BY 12Z
IFR CIGS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT SO WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER THEY WILL RAMP UP AGAIN LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS LK MI.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

HAVE CANCELED THE ADVISORY FOR THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS AS
LATEST FORECAST HAS IT CRESTING A HALF FOOT BELOW BANKFULL SUNDAY.
SYCAMORE CREEK AT HOLT CRESTED LAST NIGHT AND IS FALLING BELOW
BANKFULL AT THIS TIME. ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL NOT AFFECT THE RIVERS MUCH. A LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INTO THE NEW YEAR WILL ALLOW THE LARGER
RIVERS TIME TO CREST AND FALL WITHOUT MUCH IMPACT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MEADE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 330 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

WE WILL SEE SOME CHILLY AIR AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ARRIVE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THINKING TO THE GOING FORECAST. WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 40 STREAM
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW SCATTERED LIGHT
CONVECTIVE LOOKING RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. THESE SHOULD WILL LIKELY TRACK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR DEVELOP OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST
SATURDAY WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW AND COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS...
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 00Z SUNDAY ABOUT THE
TIME THE COLDER AIR IS ARRIVING. PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE SFC COLD
FRONT SHOULD TREND TOWARD JUST SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILES AND QUESTIONABLE
DGZ SATURATION. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
QUICK TO BUILD IN WHICH ACTUALLY LEADS TO DECENT PROSPECT FOR
SUNSHINE DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COLDER WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM
WITH CHCS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO
NOT LOOK TO BE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN THE FCST PERIOD FOR NOW. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AS IT WOULD NOT TAKE MAJOR
CHANGES TO BRING A BETTER POTENTIAL OF LAKE EFFECT.

THE CHC OF SNOW FOR SW LOWER ON MON DOES NOT LOOK REAL GOOD AT THIS
TIME. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FROM THE WNW ON MON. HOWEVER A STRONG 1050+ MB RIDGE TO OUR WEST
WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE LOWER LEVELS HERE. NE FLOW AND AN
EXTENSION OF THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE WILL LIMIT PCPN POTENTIAL.

THE PERIOD FROM TUE THROUGH THU THEN WILL FEATURE THE COLDEST TEMPS
OF THE LONG TERM. THE MON SHORT WAVE WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION OF
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TO MORE OF A NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ON THE NRLY AND EVENTUALLY NW
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE AIR WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT...HOWEVER WE WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE NRN BRANCH
OF THE JET. SHORT WAVES DIVING SE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF THE CWFA. THIS WILL LIMIT MOISTURE DEPTH SIGNIFICANTLY AND ALSO
THE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY.

LAKE EFFECT COULD BE MORE ROBUST IF THE UPPER JET AND THE ASSOCIATED
SHORT WAVES ARE ABLE TO DIVE JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. WE BELIEVE
THAT THE STRONG CUTOFF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND THE RIDGE
AHEAD OF IT WILL HOLD THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA.

WE COULD SEE THE INITIAL EFFECTS OF THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW START TO
MOVE IN AS EARLY AS NEXT FRI AS WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF
IT STARTS TO OVERRUN THE COLDER AIR EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE
MODELS TYPICALLY EJECT THESE SYSTEMS OUT TOO QUICK...SO WE WILL KEEP
THE CHC OF PCPN LOW AT THIS TIME FOR NEXT FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE N/NW PORTION OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING ONLY KMKG AT THIS TIME. SOME
ADDITIONAL CU IS FORMING JUST SOUTH OF THIS CLOUD COVER THAT WILL
AFFECT KGRR MORE THAN ANY OTHER LOCATION. WE EXPECT THE CLOUD
COVER TO HOLD IN AT KMKG EXCEPT FOR A FEW BREAKS AT TIMES. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS ALL AREAS TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SW.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 08-09Z ACROSS THE WEST. THEY
WILL THEN EXPAND TO THE EAST THEREAFTER. CIGS WILL LOWER AND WILL
LIKELY END UP IFR FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SAT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
TOO BAD...MAINLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT SO WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER THEY WILL RAMP UP AGAIN LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS LK MI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

HAVE CANCELED THE ADVISORY FOR THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS AS
LATEST FORECAST HAS IT CRESTING A HALF FOOT BELOW BANKFULL SUNDAY.
SYCAMORE CREEK AT HOLT CRESTED LAST NIGHT AND IS FALLING BELOW
BANKFULL AT THIS TIME. ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL NOT AFFECT THE RIVERS MUCH. A LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INTO THE NEW YEAR WILL ALLOW THE LARGER
RIVERS TIME TO CREST AND FALL WITHOUT MUCH IMPACT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MEADE










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 1237 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WHAT IS LOOKING
INCREASING LIKELY TO BE A 3 TO 5 INCH BAND OF SNOW TONIGHT FROM
SW/SC MN INTO WC WI. IS SOME CONCERN THAT A NARROW STRIP WITHIN
THIS BAND COULD SEE TOTALS MORE IN THE 5-7 INCH RANGE. GIVEN THE
THREAT OF NEAR WARNING TYPE SNOW TOTALS ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE BAND OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW
OCCURRING...WE DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR TONIGHT
FOR ABOUT THE SE HALF OF THE MPX CWA.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT
TERM. A CLOSED LOW DOWN IN THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WORKING SOUTHEAST INTO NRN MONTANA. THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL PHASE OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THE 4 CORNERS WAVE WILL BE THE
DOMINATE PLAYER FOR PRECIP...THOUGH IT WILL BE LOSING ITS
AMPLIFICATION AS IT MERGES WITH THE NRN STREAM WAVE. AS THE
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION WENT OVER...CONVERGENCE BETWEEN
THESE TWO WAVES TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT ON
THE NW SIDE OF THE SNOW BAND...WITH AREAS NW OF A GRANITE FALLS TO
LITTLE FALLS LINE LIKELY SEEING NOTHING TONIGHT.

AT THE SFC...THERE IS A LEE SIDE LOW OVER ERN NEW MEXICO...WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE UP INTO THE
SE TIP OF MN AND THE WRN U.P. OF MICHIGAN. ALSO OF IMPORTANCE
THIS MORNING IS THAT WE ARE ACTUALLY SEEING COLD AIR SPILLING
SOUTH BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...WITH MOST LOCATION IN SASKATCHEWAN
CURRENTLY BELOW ZERO F. AS THE 4 CORNERS WAVE EJECTS NE...MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A 1015 MB OR LOWER SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER NRN MO TONIGHT THAT WILL HEAD OFF INTO THE STRAITS OF
MACKINAC BY SAT AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BE PULLING IN THE POLAR
AIR ACROSS SRN CANADA...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A HEALTHY DEFORMATION
BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP TO THE NW OF THE SFC LOW...WHICH WILL BE
AIDED BY A TROWAL THAT WILL BE WORKING IN ON THE COOL SIDE OF A
100+KT SWRLY MID LEVEL JET STREAK THAT WILL BE WORKING ACROSS ERN
IOWA TONIGHT.

FAVORED THIS FORECAST CLOSELY TO THE 26.00 GFS. WHEN COMPARING QPF
SWATHS OF VARIOUS PIECES OF GUIDANCE THROUGH 00Z TO THE
RAP...THE GFS QPF WAS PRETTY MUCH LAID DOWN RIGHT ON TOP OF WHAT
THE RAP HAS...SO FELT CONFIDENT IN RIDING THAT FORECAST FORWARD.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS COURSE WAS FURTHER BOOSTED BY THE 26.06
NAM...WHICH SHIFTED A BIT SE FROM ITS 26.00 RUN TO MORE OR LESS
FALL IN LINE WITH THE 26.00 GFS. THE GFS SHOWS THE TROP FOLD
GETTING DOWN BELOW 450 MB...SO THIS WILL HELP FORCE A RATHER
INTENSE DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP JUST TO THE NW OF ITS PATH. QPF
FROM THE GFS GETS UP INTO THE 0.3-0.35 RANGE...BUT THE NAM12 ALONG
WITH OTHER HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW STORM TOTAL QPFS CLIMBING OVER
0.4. FOR SNOW RATIOS...ROEBBER RATIO PROBABILITIES FOR TONIGHT
WERE SPLIT PRETTY EVENLY BETWEEN THE AVERAGE AND LIGHT
BINS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RATIOS BEING UP IN THE 14-15:1 RANGE.
0.3" OF QPF WITH THESE RATIOS WOULD PUSH SNOW TOTALS UP TO A
LITTLE OVER 4 INCHES...BUT IF WE SEE QPF UP CLOSER TO 0.45 LIKE
THE NAM HAS...THEN YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT SNOW TOTALS MORE IN THE
BALLPARK OF 6". LOOKING AT BUFR SOUNDINGS...LAPSE RATES ATOP THE
H8-H7 FGEN LAYER ARE UP AROUND 7 DEG C PER KM...SO WE SHOULD SEE A
WEAKLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT ATOP THE FGEN...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CSI TYPE BANDING...AND SUPPORT THE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS THE HI-RES MODELS ARE HINTING AT. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR A BAND OF 3+" TO FALL BETWEEN PLYMOUTH TO THE NORTH AND
ROCHESTER TO THE SOUTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NOT MUCH MORE THAN A
20-30 MILE WIDE BAND OF 5-7" TO FALL WITHIN THIS BAND. AT THE
MOMENT...THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR TOTALS LIKE THAT LOOKS TO
CENTERED NEAR A ST. JAMES/RED WING/CHIP FALLS LINE.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS CLOUD COVER AND WEAK CAA HELP KEEP TEMPS
PARKED AT WHERE THEY CURRENTLY ARE UNTIL THE SFC LOW GETS GOING
OVER MO TONIGHT...WHICH WILL FINALLY HELP PULL COLDER AIR THIS
DIRECTION. WINDS WILL ALSO BE REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTH...BUT
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15MPH...SO NOT WORRIED ABOUT THERE BEING
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ISSUES WITH TONIGHTS SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK BLEEDS INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AND THEN BENIGN BUT
COLDER WEATHER MARKS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

SNOW WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER EFFICIENTLY FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING SURFACE RIDGE WORKS INTO THE REGION. AN ADDITIONAL
DUSTING /MN/ TO ONE INCH /WI/ APPEARS POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...BRINGING STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TO THE GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCH
RANGE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WON/T STRAY TOO FAR FROM NORMAL
VALUES FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

BY MONDAY...HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS DECLINE TO AROUND -18C...AND EVEN
FURTHER FOR TUESDAY...TO AROUND -20C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS /F/ AREA-WIDE BY TUESDAY...WITH SUB-
ZERO LOWS. WITH WINDS STAYING UP IN THE 5-10KT RANGE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS...WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY...PARTICULARLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN
WHERE READINGS ARE FORECAST TO DIP NEAR 25 BELOW.

THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME RESULTANT LIGHT SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR FOR MONDAY...WHERE UP TO ONE INCH APPEARS
POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AN ARCTIC
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY...CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO RETREAT BACK BELOW NORMAL. THIS CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
HAVE INCLUDED 20 POPS FOR THURSDAY...BUT TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IS ADMITTEDLY NOT GREAT AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

ALL SITES EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE LOWER-END MVFR RANGE FOR
CEILINGS THRU THIS AFTN THEN DROP INTO IFR RANGE THIS EVENING THRU
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHCS FOR -SN WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A KRWF-KMSP
LINE...SO THOSE TWO SITES PLUS THE TWO WI SITES ARE EXPCTED TO SEE
-SN DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...STARTING OUT WITH MVFR VSBY BUT
THEN DROPPING INTO IFR RANGE SHORTLY THEREAFTER FOR GENERALLY 4-6
HOURS. CONDS IMPROVE BEYOND 12Z TMRW MRNG. HAVE ONLY GONE DOWN TO
1SM FOR VSBY BUT GOING DOWN TO 1/2SM OR LOWER...ESP FOR KMSP-KRNH-
KEAU...CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SAME AS HAVING CEILINGS /OR
VV/ DROPPING TO 500FT OR LOWER AT TIMES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY NLY THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET...THEN BECOME MORE WNW BY
MIDDAY TMRW.

KMSP...CEILINGS TO REMAIN SUB-1700FT FOR THE START OF THE 26/18Z
TAF...BUT THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME CEILINGS MAY NUDGE ABOVE THAT
LEVEL TO CLOSE TO 2 KFT. HOWEVER...AS -SN MOVES IN THIS EVENING...
CEILINGS DROP BACK DOWN AND MAY WELL HIT IFR LEVELS BY MIDNIGHT.
LITTLE TRICKY TO SEE HOW LONG THE IFR-VSBY -SN WILL LAST BUT HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE 6-HOURS-WORTH OF IFR CONDS ATTM. CONDS IMPROVE
AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID-UPR RANGE MVFR CEILINGS VERY POSSIBLE SAT
AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS. WINDS S 5 KTS...BCMG E.
MON...VFR. WINDS N 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ053-060>063-065>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

 932 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. THE RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A BIG PUSH OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. BEHIND THIS PUSH IS MOSTLY SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS TO BE WANING SO WILL BE
TAKING THAT OUT OF THE HWO AND GRAPHICS. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE WANING IN THE COMING HOURS BEFORE
DAWN AND THEN ANOTHER PUSH OF SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY AFTER DAWN SUNDAY.
WILL BE MAINTAINING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS
HAVE NOT AMOUNTED TO ANY SERIOUS FLOODING YET. THE WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE TRIMMED SOME DEPENDING ON THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD HOWEVER. THE HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE FRONT. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CIGS WL CONTINUE AREAWIDE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TO THE NE ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WELL THEN TAPER
OFF FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST ACROSS REGION. A FEW TSTMS WL BE PSBL OVER THE SE PORTIONS
OF THE AREA MAINLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N AFTER
FROPA...AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE DELTA REGION AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWING MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING TO DIG
SOUTH...NOW ENTERING NW MEXICO. TO THE EAST...MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CARRIBEAN. RESULTING
FLOW IN BETWEEN HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SSW ALLOWING THE MOISTURE
RICH AIR (PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES) OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO BE
TAPPED.

ALREADY...ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING OVER SE MS HAVE
PRODUCED SUBSTANTIAL RAINS WITH SPORADIC STREET FLOODING BEING
REPORTED. LATEST HRRR DATA IS INDICATING CONVECTION WILL FILL BACK
IN ALONG THE MID 60 DEWPOINT AXIS...CURRENTLY BISECTING LA...AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MS EARLY THIS EVENING. BELIEVE THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL SET UP ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE DEWPOINT
GRADIENT WHICH WILL OCCUR COINCIDE WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PWAT
COMING IN OFF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NAM...HRRR...GFS...
AND ECMWF ALL HAVE SIMILAR QPF SOLUTIONS.

WHILE PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS WE ARE SEEING IS ANOMALOUS ENOUGH (+3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS)...EVEN MORE AMAZING IS THE FACT THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE LOCATED BELOW 700 MB WHEN
LOOKING AT AREA SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ABOVE 700
MB PROFILES ARE QUITE DRY. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
DESTABILIZATION AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN AND IS MOST
LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL THAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING. BELIEVE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT
UNTIL THE COLUMN CAN BECOME SUBSTANTIALLY SATURATED. WILL CONTINUE
TO OUTLOOK OUR LIMITED SEVERE THREAT...BUT MOVE IT A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED
TORNADO THREAT OVER THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION CAN GET GOING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW RAINFALL
TO WANE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT IT TO BREAK OUT AGAIN SUNDAY
AS WHATS LEFT OF PHASING MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH.
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT./26/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WITH COOLER HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...
BUT COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
INTO THE REGION. NEW YEARS EVE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. NEW YEARS EVE WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S.

THE PATTERN OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLANES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE GFS TAKING THE SURFACE LOW NORTH AND THE ECMWF FURTHER
SOUTH. EITHER WAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE
GET INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS./15/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       52  54  42  53 / 100  97  94   8
MERIDIAN      58  62  45  56 / 100  94  95  14
VICKSBURG     48  50  40  52 / 100  98  89   6
HATTIESBURG   59  67  48  59 / 100  63  82   7
NATCHEZ       50  52  41  53 / 100  95  87   5
GREENVILLE    43  46  37  50 / 100  89  75   7
GREENWOOD     46  48  39  51 / 100  96  85   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ026>033-
     036>039-042>066-072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ026.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 339 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Low pressure will develop along the cold front currently over
northwest Missouri in response to shortwave trough ejecting out of
the base of mean trough over the western CONUS tonight.  This low
will move northeast into the Great Lakes by tomorrow at the same
time that the shortwave moves into the the Upper Midwest.  NAM and
GFS show that the cold front will enter the northwest part of the
CWA late tonight and exit the CWA by tomorrow afternoon.  While
precipitation is currently limited on radar over the central CONUS,
expect rain chances to increase rapidly this evening as low level
moisture convergence increases ahead of shortwave trough. Latest
runs of the HRRR as well as the NSSL-WRF have depicted rain
developing throughout the evening hours with it becoming more
concentrated over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois after
midnight. Have continued going forecast trend of increasing
chance PoPs through the evening hours and with likely PoPs over
the southeast half of the CWA after midnight. Then concentrated
likely PoPs tomorrow morning over the southeast half of the CWA
when the GFS depicts increasing mid level frontogenesis associated
with the shortwave trough. Kept a chance of rain or snow going
over the far southeast part of the CWA tomorrow evening before
drier air and subsidence works into the area on Saturday evening.
Sunday and Sunday evening still looks dry at this point.

Kept with falling temperatures will frontal passage tomorrow.
Otherwise MOS guidance are in decent agreement and looks
reasonable.

Britt

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

There is relatively good agreement in the global models in that a
positively tilted mean trough will stay established through at
least the first half of next week from central Canada into the
western CONUS. This will keep a relatively fast zonal flow over
MO/IL through most of the period. A large area of surface high
pressure will move under the zonal flow with no real notable
shortwaves troughs that would offer any precipitation chances at
least through Thursday. Model discrepancies show up by Friday as
the operational GFS is faster than it`s own ensemble mean in
ejecting the main upper low out of the southwest toward the
Midwest. While this is faster than the rest of the models, even
the ECMWF is showing precipitation developing over the area in a
broad warm air advection regime ahead of it bringing the upper low
through the area on Saturday. So with this said will go ahead and
introduce snow with some rain to the forecast on Friday.

Cold front will pass through the area on Monday and temperatures
will fall below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday before returning to
near normal for the start of a new year late in the week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

MVFR SC deck over far southern Missouri to slowly develop and
slide north this afternoon as low level moisture is on the
increase ahead of next weather system. But movement/development is
a bit slower than originally thought, so backed off at taf sites
til early this evening. Otherwise, winds to remain from the south
til frontal passage which will be between 12z-15z Saturday, then winds
to veer to the west around 15kts. Precipitation will be limited
with it mainly occurring with frontal passage, except over
central, northeast MO, west central IL. Kept mention of light rain
for KCOU after 03z Saturday and around 06z for KUIN. Cigs to lower
but remain low end mvfr with frontal passage.

Specifics for KSTL:
MVFR SC deck over far southern Missouri to slowly develop and
slide north this afternoon as low level moisture is on the
increase ahead of next weather system. But movement/development is
a bit slower than originally thought, so backed off at KSTL til
after 00z Saturday. Otherwise, winds to remain from the south til frontal
passage which will be around 15z Saturday, then winds to veer to
the west around 15kts. Precipitation will be limited with it mainly
occurring with frontal passage. Cigs to lower but remain low end
mvfr with frontal passage.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 1130 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED IN THIS AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SATELLITE AND THE RUC INDICATE A CLOSED H500 MB LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS. A DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW EXTENDED FROM NRN
COLO INTO WY WHICH WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. A NEW
DEFORMATION BAND WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN NM AND THIS DISTURBANCE
IS FCST BY THE MODELS TO LIFT THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KIML-KOGA-
KTIF-KONL. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST SNOWFALL...4 TO 6
INCHES...WOULD LIFT FROM HAYES CENTER TO NORTH PLATTE AND THEN
NORTHEAST THROUGH BURWELL AND ONEILL. ROCK AND HOLT COUNTY HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z
TONIGHT.

THE MODEL QPF IS MOST TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER NORTH PLATTE AND MODEL
QPF SPREAD INCREASES EAST AND WEST OF THAT POINT. WE ARE EXPECTING
AROUND 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF QPF FROM THIS DISTURBANCE. THE GFS WAS
THE FIRST MODEL TWO DAYS AGO TO INDICATE A SEMI CLOSED H700MB LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OTHER MODELS CARRIED
THIS DISTURBANCE EAST MOSTLY THROUGH KS AND SCNTL/ERN NEB. NOW ALL
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT LIFTING THIS LOW THROUGH THE FCST AREA.
THERE IS SOME WOBBLING GOING ON WHICH IS NORMAL. THE RAP IS A BIT
EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BUT GIVEN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS
YESTERDAY FAVORING THE CNTL PANHANDLE VS THE RAP WITH THE CHEYENNE
DIVIDE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS WINS THE FCST. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND A 15 TO 1 RATIO...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THESE AMOUNTS FROM
KIML-KLBF-KBUB-KONL BUT SHOWS 6 TO 8 INCHES FROM KBBW-KBUB-KONL.
THIS IS A TREND IN THE MODELS FOR SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND THE NAM
ACTUALLY HAS A CLOSED H700MB LOW OVER KGRI AT 03Z THIS EVENING WHILE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS SHOWS THIS LOW AS AN OPEN WAVE. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES AND A CLOSED H700MB LOW WERE TO TRAVERSE THE FCST
AREA...THE CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW WOULD INCREASE.

FOR NOW THE FCST IS FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THIS IS AN INCREASE OF 2 INCHES OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW A 700MB DRY INTRUSION. THIS DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FCST AREA 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING AND A CHECK OF
THE NEDOR WEBSITE INDICATES ROADS IN CUSTER COUNTY ARE COMPLETELY
COVERED WITH ICE...UNTREATED AND NO TRAVEL IS ADVISED SO THE
ADVISORY WILL BEGIN EARLIER IN THIS AREA. WITH QUICKLY CHANGING
AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...WILL ADD ADDITIONAL COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY TO THE NORTHEAST AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE MODELS INDICATE DRY AIR WILL WORK EAST TO HIGHWAY 83 AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MODEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SHOULD FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEALS WITH TEMPERATURES
AS A COLDER AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THEN WITH
AN INTRUDING ARCTIC COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH BRINGS AN
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THAT IS COLDER YET ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SNOW.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH DOES PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH
KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE ON ITS WAY EAST OF THE REGION
WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PASS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE INCREASING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SO
LOOKING FOR DECREASING WINDS...BUT AS IT WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY KEEP WINDS FROM
GOING CALM. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT SO COULD GET FAIRLY
COLD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW COVER. MODIFIED
THE PRIOR FORECAST ONLY SLIGHTLY AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE COLDER TEMPERATURES.

WEAK RIDGING BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH
THE AIRMASS REMAINING COLD WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT -1C TO -6C
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE ONGOING
FORECAST WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LOOKING FOR THE
ARCTIC FRONT MENTIONED EARLIER TO START PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE SOME DIFFERENCES LIE
THOUGH...MAINLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER TO MOVE THINGS THROUGH AND TOOK A SLOWER
APPROACH WHICH IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE SYSTEM IN
QUESTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...MOVING TOWARDS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE WILL DIG DOWN THE PACIFIC
COAST AND BECOME CLOSED OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PART OF THE
ORIGINAL SYSTEM WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND WILL
MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR -15C BY 18Z
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT SO
ANTICIPATING WINDS TO INCREASE FOR MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF
MOISTURE NOT EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS TO BE SIGNIFICANT. THE BEST LIFT
IS SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA. SO WILL KEEP THE TREND FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WESTERN HALF ON MONDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...QPF AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK TO BE TOO MUCH
SO AT MOST EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL COME WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN. MODELS AREN/T QUITE AS COLD AS PRIOR RUNS WERE BUT
STILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -20C OR COLDER FOR TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...ITS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN...AS THE 26.00 RUN FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE NOW IS ONLY
GIVING A SPREAD OF 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS RATHER THAN 30 AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST PERIODS OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN GOING THROUGH THE WEEK IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE THE COLD
AIR WILL BE SO ALTHOUGH HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD...AND BELOW NORMAL...HOW MUCH BELOW NORMAL WILL REMAIN IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME AND HAVE JUST KEPT THE TEMPERATURE TREND GOING
DOWNWARD IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A KSNY TO KTIF TO
KANW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. WEST OF THIS
LINE...LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
IN ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ009-010-025>029-036>038-057>059-069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...TAYLOR






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 718 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED IN THIS AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SATELLITE AND THE RUC INDICATE A CLOSED H500 MB LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS. A DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW EXTENDED FROM NRN
COLO INTO WY WHICH WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. A NEW
DEFORMATION BAND WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN NM AND THIS DISTURBANCE
IS FCST BY THE MODELS TO LIFT THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KIML-KOGA-
KTIF-KONL. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST SNOWFALL...4 TO 6
INCHES...WOULD LIFT FROM HAYES CENTER TO NORTH PLATTE AND THEN
NORTHEAST THROUGH BURWELL AND ONEILL. ROCK AND HOLT COUNTY HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z
TONIGHT.

THE MODEL QPF IS MOST TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER NORTH PLATTE AND MODEL
QPF SPREAD INCREASES EAST AND WEST OF THAT POINT. WE ARE EXPECTING
AROUND 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF QPF FROM THIS DISTURBANCE. THE GFS WAS
THE FIRST MODEL TWO DAYS AGO TO INDICATE A SEMI CLOSED H700MB LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OTHER MODELS CARRIED
THIS DISTURBANCE EAST MOSTLY THROUGH KS AND SCNTL/ERN NEB. NOW ALL
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT LIFTING THIS LOW THROUGH THE FCST AREA.
THERE IS SOME WOBBLING GOING ON WHICH IS NORMAL. THE RAP IS A BIT
EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BUT GIVEN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS
YESTERDAY FAVORING THE CNTL PANHANDLE VS THE RAP WITH THE CHEYENNE
DIVIDE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS WINS THE FCST. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND A 15 TO 1 RATIO...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THESE AMOUNTS FROM
KIML-KLBF-KBUB-KONL BUT SHOWS 6 TO 8 INCHES FROM KBBW-KBUB-KONL.
THIS IS A TREND IN THE MODELS FOR SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND THE NAM
ACTUALLY HAS A CLOSED H700MB LOW OVER KGRI AT 03Z THIS EVENING WHILE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS SHOWS THIS LOW AS AN OPEN WAVE. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES AND A CLOSED H700MB LOW WERE TO TRAVERSE THE FCST
AREA...THE CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW WOULD INCREASE.

FOR NOW THE FCST IS FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THIS IS AN INCREASE OF 2 INCHES OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW A 700MB DRY INTRUSION. THIS DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FCST AREA 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING AND A CHECK OF
THE NEDOR WEBSITE INDICATES ROADS IN CUSTER COUNTY ARE COMPLETELY
COVERED WITH ICE...UNTREATED AND NO TRAVEL IS ADVISED SO THE
ADVISORY WILL BEGIN EARLIER IN THIS AREA. WITH QUICKLY CHANGING
AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...WILL ADD ADDITIONAL COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY TO THE NORTHEAST AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE MODELS INDICATE DRY AIR WILL WORK EAST TO HIGHWAY 83 AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MODEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SHOULD FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEALS WITH TEMPERATURES
AS A COLDER AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THEN WITH
AN INTRUDING ARCTIC COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH BRINGS AN
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THAT IS COLDER YET ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SNOW.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH DOES PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH
KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE ON ITS WAY EAST OF THE REGION
WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PASS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE INCREASING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SO
LOOKING FOR DECREASING WINDS...BUT AS IT WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY KEEP WINDS FROM
GOING CALM. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT SO COULD GET FAIRLY
COLD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW COVER. MODIFIED
THE PRIOR FORECAST ONLY SLIGHTLY AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE COLDER TEMPERATURES.

WEAK RIDGING BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH
THE AIRMASS REMAINING COLD WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT -1C TO -6C
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE ONGOING
FORECAST WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LOOKING FOR THE
ARCTIC FRONT MENTIONED EARLIER TO START PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE SOME DIFFERENCES LIE
THOUGH...MAINLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER TO MOVE THINGS THROUGH AND TOOK A SLOWER
APPROACH WHICH IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE SYSTEM IN
QUESTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...MOVING TOWARDS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE WILL DIG DOWN THE PACIFIC
COAST AND BECOME CLOSED OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PART OF THE
ORIGINAL SYSTEM WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND WILL
MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR -15C BY 18Z
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT SO
ANTICIPATING WINDS TO INCREASE FOR MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF
MOISTURE NOT EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS TO BE SIGNIFICANT. THE BEST LIFT
IS SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA. SO WILL KEEP THE TREND FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WESTERN HALF ON MONDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...QPF AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK TO BE TOO MUCH
SO AT MOST EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL COME WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN. MODELS AREN/T QUITE AS COLD AS PRIOR RUNS WERE BUT
STILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -20C OR COLDER FOR TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...ITS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN...AS THE 26.00 RUN FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE NOW IS ONLY
GIVING A SPREAD OF 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS RATHER THAN 30 AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST PERIODS OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN GOING THROUGH THE WEEK IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE THE COLD
AIR WILL BE SO ALTHOUGH HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD...AND BELOW NORMAL...HOW MUCH BELOW NORMAL WILL REMAIN IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME AND HAVE JUST KEPT THE TEMPERATURE TREND GOING
DOWNWARD IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

IFR/MVFR ALONG HIGHWAY 20 WEST OF VALENTINE AND HIGHWAY 2 WEST OF
THEDFORD MAY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS MORNING AS THE LAST SNOW LIFTS
NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THIS AREA. MVFR FROM KIML-
KANW/KONL IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE ACROSS NM LIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA PRODUCING SNOW. IFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 03Z-06Z THIS EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB INCLUDING KLBF WITH
AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 09Z. MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 TONIGHT AS SNOW CONTINUES IN THIS AREA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ025-026-036-037-057>059-069>071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ009-
010.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR NEZ009-010.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ006-
007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ027>029-038.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 527 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SATELLITE AND THE RUC INDICATE A CLOSED H500 MB LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS. A DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW EXTENDED FROM NRN
COLO INTO WY WHICH WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. A NEW
DEFORMATION BAND WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN NM AND THIS DISTURBANCE
IS FCST BY THE MODELS TO LIFT THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KIML-KOGA-
KTIF-KONL. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST SNOWFALL...4 TO 6
INCHES...WOULD LIFT FROM HAYES CENTER TO NORTH PLATTE AND THEN
NORTHEAST THROUGH BURWELL AND ONEILL. ROCK AND HOLT COUNTY HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z
TONIGHT.

THE MODEL QPF IS MOST TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER NORTH PLATTE AND MODEL
QPF SPREAD INCREASES EAST AND WEST OF THAT POINT. WE ARE EXPECTING
AROUND 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF QPF FROM THIS DISTURBANCE. THE GFS WAS
THE FIRST MODEL TWO DAYS AGO TO INDICATE A SEMI CLOSED H700MB LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OTHER MODELS CARRIED
THIS DISTURBANCE EAST MOSTLY THROUGH KS AND SCNTL/ERN NEB. NOW ALL
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT LIFTING THIS LOW THROUGH THE FCST AREA.
THERE IS SOME WOBBLING GOING ON WHICH IS NORMAL. THE RAP IS A BIT
EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BUT GIVEN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS
YESTERDAY FAVORING THE CNTL PANHANDLE VS THE RAP WITH THE CHEYENNE
DIVIDE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS WINS THE FCST. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND A 15 TO 1 RATIO...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THESE AMOUNTS FROM
KIML-KLBF-KBUB-KONL BUT SHOWS 6 TO 8 INCHES FROM KBBW-KBUB-KONL.
THIS IS A TREND IN THE MODELS FOR SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND THE NAM
ACTUALLY HAS A CLOSED H700MB LOW OVER KGRI AT 03Z THIS EVENING WHILE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS SHOWS THIS LOW AS AN OPEN WAVE. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES AND A CLOSED H700MB LOW WERE TO TRAVERSE THE FCST
AREA...THE CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW WOULD INCREASE.

FOR NOW THE FCST IS FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THIS IS AN INCREASE OF 2 INCHES OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW A 700MB DRY INTRUSION. THIS DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FCST AREA 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING AND A CHECK OF
THE NEDOR WEBSITE INDICATES ROADS IN CUSTER COUNTY ARE COMPLETELY
COVERED WITH ICE...UNTREATED AND NO TRAVEL IS ADVISED SO THE
ADVISORY WILL BEGIN EARLIER IN THIS AREA. WITH QUICKLY CHANGING
AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...WILL ADD ADDITIONAL COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY TO THE NORTHEAST AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE MODELS INDICATE DRY AIR WILL WORK EAST TO HIGHWAY 83 AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MODEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SHOULD FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEALS WITH TEMPERATURES
AS A COLDER AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THEN WITH
AN INTRUDING ARCTIC COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH BRINGS AN
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THAT IS COLDER YET ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SNOW.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH DOES PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH
KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE ON ITS WAY EAST OF THE REGION
WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PASS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE INCREASING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SO
LOOKING FOR DECREASING WINDS...BUT AS IT WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY KEEP WINDS FROM
GOING CALM. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT SO COULD GET FAIRLY
COLD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW COVER. MODIFIED
THE PRIOR FORECAST ONLY SLIGHTLY AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE COLDER TEMPERATURES.

WEAK RIDGING BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH
THE AIRMASS REMAINING COLD WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT -1C TO -6C
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE ONGOING
FORECAST WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LOOKING FOR THE
ARCTIC FRONT MENTIONED EARLIER TO START PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE SOME DIFFERENCES LIE
THOUGH...MAINLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER TO MOVE THINGS THROUGH AND TOOK A SLOWER
APPROACH WHICH IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE SYSTEM IN
QUESTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...MOVING TOWARDS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE WILL DIG DOWN THE PACIFIC
COAST AND BECOME CLOSED OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PART OF THE
ORIGINAL SYSTEM WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND WILL
MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR -15C BY 18Z
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT SO
ANTICIPATING WINDS TO INCREASE FOR MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF
MOISTURE NOT EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS TO BE SIGNIFICANT. THE BEST LIFT
IS SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA. SO WILL KEEP THE TREND FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WESTERN HALF ON MONDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...QPF AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK TO BE TOO MUCH
SO AT MOST EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL COME WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN. MODELS AREN/T QUITE AS COLD AS PRIOR RUNS WERE BUT
STILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -20C OR COLDER FOR TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...ITS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN...AS THE 26.00 RUN FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE NOW IS ONLY
GIVING A SPREAD OF 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS RATHER THAN 30 AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST PERIODS OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN GOING THROUGH THE WEEK IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE THE COLD
AIR WILL BE SO ALTHOUGH HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD...AND BELOW NORMAL...HOW MUCH BELOW NORMAL WILL REMAIN IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME AND HAVE JUST KEPT THE TEMPERATURE TREND GOING
DOWNWARD IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

IFR/MVFR ALONG HIGHWAY 20 WEST OF VALENTINE AND HIGHWAY 2 WEST OF
THEDFORD MAY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS MORNING AS THE LAST SNOW LIFTS
NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THIS AREA. MVFR FROM KIML-
KANW/KONL IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE ACROSS NM LIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA PRODUCING SNOW. IFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 03Z-06Z THIS EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB INCLUDING KLBF WITH
AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 09Z. MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 TONIGHT AS SNOW CONTINUES IN THIS AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NEZ025-026-036-037-057>059-
069>071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ027>029-038.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ006-
007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ009-
010.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR NEZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 405 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SATELLITE AND THE RUC INDICATE A CLOSED H500 MB LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS. A DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW EXTENDED FROM NRN
COLO INTO WY WHICH WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. A NEW
DEFORMATION BAND WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN NM AND THIS DISTURBANCE
IS FCST BY THE MODELS TO LIFT THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KIML-KOGA-
KTIF-KONL. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST SNOWFALL...4 TO 6
INCHES...WOULD LIFT FROM HAYES CENTER TO NORTH PLATTE AND THEN
NORTHEAST THROUGH BURWELL AND ONEILL. ROCK AND HOLT COUNTY HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z
TONIGHT.

THE MODEL QPF IS MOST TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER NORTH PLATTE AND MODEL
QPF SPREAD INCREASES EAST AND WEST OF THAT POINT. WE ARE EXPECTING
AROUND 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF QPF FROM THIS DISTURBANCE. THE GFS WAS
THE FIRST MODEL TWO DAYS AGO TO INDICATE A SEMI CLOSED H700MB LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OTHER MODELS CARRIED
THIS DISTURBANCE EAST MOSTLY THROUGH KS AND SCNTL/ERN NEB. NOW ALL
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT LIFTING THIS LOW THROUGH THE FCST AREA.
THERE IS SOME WOBBLING GOING ON WHICH IS NORMAL. THE RAP IS A BIT
EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BUT GIVEN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS
YESTERDAY FAVORING THE CNTL PANHANDLE VS THE RAP WITH THE CHEYENNE
DIVIDE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS WINS THE FCST. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND A 15 TO 1 RATIO...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THESE AMOUNTS FROM
KIML-KLBF-KBUB-KONL BUT SHOWS 6 TO 8 INCHES FROM KBBW-KBUB-KONL.
THIS IS A TREND IN THE MODELS FOR SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND THE NAM
ACTUALLY HAS A CLOSED H700MB LOW OVER KGRI AT 03Z THIS EVENING WHILE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS SHOWS THIS LOW AS AN OPEN WAVE. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES AND A CLOSED H700MB LOW WERE TO TRAVERSE THE FCST
AREA...THE CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW WOULD INCREASE.

FOR NOW THE FCST IS FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THIS IS AN INCREASE OF 2 INCHES OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW A 700MB DRY INTRUSION. THIS DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FCST AREA 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING AND A CHECK OF
THE NEDOR WEBSITE INDICATES ROADS IN CUSTER COUNTY ARE COMPLETELY
COVERED WITH ICE...UNTREATED AND NO TRAVEL IS ADVISED SO THE
ADVISORY WILL BEGIN EARLIER IN THIS AREA. WITH QUICKLY CHANGING
AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...WILL ADD ADDITIONAL COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY TO THE NORTHEAST AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE MODELS INDICATE DRY AIR WILL WORK EAST TO HIGHWAY 83 AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MODEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SHOULD FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEALS WITH TEMPERATURES
AS A COLDER AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THEN WITH
AN INTRUDING ARCTIC COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH BRINGS AN
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THAT IS COLDER YET ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SNOW.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH DOES PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH
KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE ON ITS WAY EAST OF THE REGION
WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PASS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE INCREASING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SO
LOOKING FOR DECREASING WINDS...BUT AS IT WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY KEEP WINDS FROM
GOING CALM. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT SO COULD GET FAIRLY
COLD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW COVER. MODIFIED
THE PRIOR FORECAST ONLY SLIGHTLY AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE COLDER TEMPERATURES.

WEAK RIDGING BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH
THE AIRMASS REMAINING COLD WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT -1C TO -6C
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE ONGOING
FORECAST WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LOOKING FOR THE
ARCTIC FRONT MENTIONED EARLIER TO START PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE SOME DIFFERENCES LIE
THOUGH...MAINLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER TO MOVE THINGS THROUGH AND TOOK A SLOWER
APPROACH WHICH IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE SYSTEM IN
QUESTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...MOVING TOWARDS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE WILL DIG DOWN THE PACIFIC
COAST AND BECOME CLOSED OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PART OF THE
ORIGINAL SYSTEM WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND WILL
MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR -15C BY 18Z
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT SO
ANTICIPATING WINDS TO INCREASE FOR MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF
MOISTURE NOT EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS TO BE SIGNIFICANT. THE BEST LIFT
IS SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA. SO WILL KEEP THE TREND FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WESTERN HALF ON MONDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...QPF AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK TO BE TOO MUCH
SO AT MOST EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL COME WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN. MODELS AREN/T QUITE AS COLD AS PRIOR RUNS WERE BUT
STILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -20C OR COLDER FOR TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...ITS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN...AS THE 26.00 RUN FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE NOW IS ONLY
GIVING A SPREAD OF 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS RATHER THAN 30 AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST PERIODS OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN GOING THROUGH THE WEEK IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE THE COLD
AIR WILL BE SO ALTHOUGH HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD...AND BELOW NORMAL...HOW MUCH BELOW NORMAL WILL REMAIN IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME AND HAVE JUST KEPT THE TEMPERATURE TREND GOING
DOWNWARD IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND A SECOND WILL APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 10Z. CIGS WILL BE AROUND 1200 FT AGL...HOWEVER...THEY MAY
DROP AS LOW AS 800 FT AGL WITH ANY DRIZZLE OR FOG. LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z FRIDAY...AND WILL PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. VISBYS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 3SM WITH
SNOW...HOWEVER SOME MODERATE INTENSITY SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING FRIDAY WITH VISBYS DOWN TO 1SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 900 FT
AGL. A SECONDARY SHOT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING WITH VISBYS AS LOW AS 1.5SM WITH CIGS AS
LOW AS 1000 FT AGL. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH VISBYS DOWN TO 3SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 1200 FT AGL.
ON FRIDAY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS OF 1500 TO 2000 FT AGL ARE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
VISBYS AS LOW AS 2SM.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NEZ025-026-036-037-057>059-
069>071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ027>029-038.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ006-
007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ009-
010.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR NEZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CLB









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 920 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY... THEN PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM SATURDAY...

SATELLITE CLOUD TRENDS SUPPORT EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AND SW... WITH CLOUDS
STEADILY THICKENING AND LOWERING OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXHIBITED WELL
BY A COMPARISON OF THE 00Z GSO SOUNDING WITH UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...
WITH DRY AIR NEAR 500 MB AND BELOW 700 MB AND A PW NEAR 0.6 IN AT
GSO... WHEREAS UPSTREAM LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE FFC AND BMX
SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH WETTER THROUGH THE COLUMN... WITH PW VALUES 1.0-
1.5 IN... OVER 200% OF NORMAL... WHICH IS POISED TO ADVECT INTO NC.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WAS OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL/SRN AL INTO CENTRAL
GA... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM... AND THIS IS ALSO
WHERE REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS EXPANSIVE RAIN -- SOME OF IT MODERATE --
SPREADING TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL NC... ALTHOUGH THE NE PROGRESSION OF
THIS RAIN IS HINDERED BY INITIAL EVAPORATION ON ITS NE EDGE.
NEVERTHELESS... RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA MAY SEE MEASURABLE RAIN FIRST... SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR AND
WRF-ARW RUNS. WE ALSO HAVE MUCH LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA (UPPER 30S) AS COMPARED TO THE SOUTHERN AND EXTREME ERN
CWA (LOW 40S)... AND THESE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL TAKE LONGER TO BE
OVERCOME. BASED ON THIS... HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE POPS
A BIT LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTH WITH A SMALL DOWNWARD TWEAK OF
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL... AND NO POPS NORTHEAST OF
RALEIGH OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF WHAT WILL INITIALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR IN
CENTRAL NC IS APT TO EVAPORATE PRIOR TO HITTING THE GROUND... BUT
STILL EXPECT A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE AMOUNTS TO SPREAD INTO THE
SW CWA SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT... THEN EXPAND INTO THE REST OF THE WRN
AND SRN CWA AFTER 3 AM. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT... A FUNCTION OF
THE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS ANTICIPATED EARLIER... TEMPS FELL
MOST SOON AFTER NIGHTFALL AND HAVE LEVELED OFF SOMEWHAT... AND THE
ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS WILL FURTHER BLANKET THE CWA OVERNIGHT...
LIMITING TEMP FALL. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S (NE) TO
UPPER 40S (WEST). -GIH


EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 255 PM: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NC/SC COAST ALONG
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA. A POSITIVELY TILTED DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS AT MIDDAY TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL SHEAR EAST INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE TROUGH IS SHARPER AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST REACHING THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS
FROM MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN TX AT MIDDAY TODAY WILL MOVE EAST
REACHING EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST GA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE BEGINS
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT... NAM/GFS/SREF BUFR SOUNDINGS ALL NOTE THAT
THE LOWER THIRD OF THE TROPOSPHERE IS SLOW TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT
UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 295K SURFACE WITH THE BEST SURGE OF LIFT
SKIRTING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF CENTRAL NC AND WILL
ADVERTISE LOW CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ADVERTISED FOR
THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. SO SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC IT WONT BE WASHOUT FOR EVERYONE.
MAINLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
RALEIGH WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED NEAR AND ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 85.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS THEY WILL TEND TO FALL
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET BUT THE OVERNIGHT TREND WILL BE
COMPLICATED BY THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY STIRRING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE COMPLICATED BY TE PRECIPITATION WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THE RAIN WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A STOUT DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL APPROACH IN THE SW FLOW LATE SUNDAY AND CROSS OUR REGION
EARLY MONDAY. MEANWHILE CENTRAL NC WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 130-150KT JET. THE ENHANCED LIFT SUPPLIED BY BOTH THE
JET AND THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH AN ABNORMALLY
MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES PROJECTED TO BE 1-1.2 INCHES)
WILL CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 50S FAR SOUTH.

MONDAY... WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY
MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND THE JET
DEPART OUR REGION. WHILE THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DRY OUT...SW FLOW IN THE 925-850MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN SATURATION
RESULTING IN OVERCAST SKIES WITH SPOTS OF RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE PULLS OUT TO THE EAST-NE. A SHALLOW COLD AIR AIR
MASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
FALLING TEMPS BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...850MB TROUGH PROJECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF
OUR REGION UNTIL MID DAY TUESDAY. THIS SUGGEST A CONTINUATION IN
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF MONDAY NIGHT. PASSAGE OF 850MB TROUGH AND ENSUING W-NW
FLOW IN ITS WAKE ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE WILL AID TO DISSIPATE CLOUD
COVERAGE WEST-TO-EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A SMALLER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP
RECOVERY. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MAX
TEMPS TUESDAY MID 40S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER
THE BULK OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
PROJECTED TO EDGE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SW U.S-SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
MODEL GUIDANCE TRADITIONALLY HAVE TROUBLE TIMING THE MOVEMENT OF
THESE CLOSED LOWS INT EH SW. USUALLY...SLOWER IS BETTER.

FOR CENTRAL NC...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AT MID
WEEK...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND. A S/W WILL
CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED
BY A DRY SFC FRONT PASSAGE. FLOW BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL REINFORCE
THE COOL AIR IN PLACE. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 4-6 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S WILL BE
COMMON.

TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BY NEXT WEEKEND PLAY HAVOC WITH
PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMP FORECAST. PERSISTENT WLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO
MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS...LEADING TO TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
IF PRECIP DELAYED UNTIL LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL
FOR TEMPS TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WILL SEE LOWERING CIGS FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY AS THE RAIN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CIGS BELOW 1000 FT TO DEVELOP
AFTER 10Z AS THE RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP
THOSE CLOUDS SCATTERED WITH GENERALLY MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISBYS
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE BEST SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NC (KINT AND KGSO) WITH THE AMOUNT...
DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP DECREASING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER BUT STILL REDUCED
TO THE EAST AT KRDU AND KRWI AND SHOULD BE BETTER FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST AT KFAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND A SURFACE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. -BLAES

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BLAES
SHORT TERM....WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...KC/BLAES




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

 1137 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPTD THRU THE PERIOD AS
LOW LVL MOIST RETURN OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
MVFR CIGS WILL SINK DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE AND LIGHT RAIN AND/OR
DRIZZLE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
HIGHS NEEDED UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN SOME PLACES...AS LOW CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS NORTH INTO THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE...WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
SHOOT UP INTO THE 60S IN SOME PLACES. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
ANY PRECIP WILL BE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTH. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND WILL NOT BE ADJUSTED
AT THIS TIME.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CIGS 3-4K FEET EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS ENTIRE TAF AREA AND
LOWERING TO 15-25 HND FEET. SCATTERED RAIN BREAKING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDER
LATE TONIGHT SOUTHEAST OK NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER FLOW IS BACKING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DIGGING SYSTEM
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE RESULT IS DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BENEATH THE STREAM OF HIGHER CLOUDS. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE RATHER SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
IN THIS SETUP AND WILL LIKELY NOT REACH OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE TRICKY. IF THE CLOUDS THICKEN AS
EXPECTED THEN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RISE 10 DEGREES OR LESS AND
STAY IN THE 50S. BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT SUN COULD PUSH READINGS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

SCATTERED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH TIME
TODAY...WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS AS FAR NORTH AS EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE ENDING PRECIP AND THE ARRIVAL OF
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR A BRIEF WINTRY MIX. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT
A LITTLE SLEET OR A LITTLE SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN AS IT ENDS IN
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
IN FAR NORTHWEST OSAGE COUNTY...BUT GENERALLY NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL SETUP BEHIND THE CURRENT SYSTEM AND
PERSIST INTO MID NEXT WEEK.

TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AROUND AND JUST AFTER THE FIRST OF
THE YEAR...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM CROSSING THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE STORM TRACK OVER OR NEAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT
ENOUGH COULD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST SOME WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE REGION GETS
INTO THE WARM SECTOR. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS
EXPECTED FOR A COMPLEX SYSTEM 7 DAYS AWAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  38  42  25 /  30  60  20   0
FSM   59  48  48  30 /  20  60  50  10
MLC   59  41  41  27 /  30  60  40   0
BVO   59  34  41  21 /  20  50  10   0
FYV   54  47  47  25 /  20  60  50  10
BYV   56  47  47  27 /  20  50  50  10
MKO   57  40  42  26 /  20  60  40   0
MIO   58  38  40  24 /  20  60  20   0
F10   56  38  42  25 /  20  50  30   0
HHW   58  48  48  30 /  30  70  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

 1004 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
HIGHS NEEDED UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN SOME PLACES...AS LOW CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS NORTH INTO THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE...WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
SHOOT UP INTO THE 60S IN SOME PLACES. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
ANY PRECIP WILL BE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTH. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND WILL NOT BE ADJUSTED
AT THIS TIME.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CIGS 3-4K FEET EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS ENTIRE TAF AREA AND
LOWERING TO 15-25 HND FEET. SCATTERED RAIN BREAKING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDER
LATE TONIGHT SOUTHEAST OK NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER FLOW IS BACKING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DIGGING SYSTEM
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE RESULT IS DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BENEATH THE STREAM OF HIGHER CLOUDS. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE RATHER SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
IN THIS SETUP AND WILL LIKELY NOT REACH OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE TRICKY. IF THE CLOUDS THICKEN AS
EXPECTED THEN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RISE 10 DEGREES OR LESS AND
STAY IN THE 50S. BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT SUN COULD PUSH READINGS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

SCATTERED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH TIME
TODAY...WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS AS FAR NORTH AS EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE ENDING PRECIP AND THE ARRIVAL OF
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR A BRIEF WINTRY MIX. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT
A LITTLE SLEET OR A LITTLE SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN AS IT ENDS IN
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
IN FAR NORTHWEST OSAGE COUNTY...BUT GENERALLY NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL SETUP BEHIND THE CURRENT SYSTEM AND
PERSIST INTO MID NEXT WEEK.

TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AROUND AND JUST AFTER THE FIRST OF
THE YEAR...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM CROSSING THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE STORM TRACK OVER OR NEAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT
ENOUGH COULD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST SOME WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE REGION GETS
INTO THE WARM SECTOR. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS
EXPECTED FOR A COMPLEX SYSTEM 7 DAYS AWAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  38  42  25 /  30  60  20   0
FSM   59  48  48  30 /  20  60  50  10
MLC   59  41  41  27 /  30  60  40   0
BVO   59  34  41  21 /  20  50  10   0
FYV   54  47  47  25 /  20  60  50  10
BYV   56  47  47  27 /  20  50  50  10
MKO   57  40  42  26 /  20  60  40   0
MIO   58  38  40  24 /  20  60  20   0
F10   56  38  42  25 /  20  50  30   0
HHW   58  48  48  30 /  30  70  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 927 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SMALL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD
FRONT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES OUR REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH
MONDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION IN THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL GET ORGANIZED
OVER TEXAS AND REACH OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM...LATEST RADAR IMAGES FROM KGSP INDICATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LAKELANDS OF SC. UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
GA...COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN WAS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
AL/GA LINE. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED BKN TO OVC MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. THE THICK CLOUD COVER HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED
TO KEEPING TEMPS ONE TO TWO DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS TO RECENT RADAR
TRENDS...INCREASE SKY COVER...AND WARM HRLY TEMPS TO OBS.

AS OF 710 PM...I WILL UPDATE TO FINE TUNE CLOUDS....TEMPS...AND
POPS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOIST SOUTHWEST LLVL
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW IN INCREASING
LLVL LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND LOW
CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE.

AS OF 515 PM...LIGHT AND HIGH RADAR RETURNS WERE TRACKING ACROSS NRN
GA. THESE RETURNS HAVE NOT BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SFC OBS OF
RAIN...EXPECTING RETURNS FROM VIRGA. HOWEVER...A LARGE PATCH OF
LIGHT RAIN WAS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AL/GA LINE...THIS AREA SHOULD
RESULT IN RAIN ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. I WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST
POP TIMING AND ALIGN TEMP/DWPT WITH OBSERVATIONS.

AS OF 240 PM EST SATURDAY...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A DEEP
AND MOIST WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DOWN TO THE WESTERN GULF...AND TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH BROAD
AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS AN EASTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
US...MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE PIEDMONT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUN AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP INTO
THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF LIFTS NE ACROSS
AL/MI TONIGHT. THEREFORE...POPS QUICKLY RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST
INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER THE WESTERN MTNS ZONES AND NE
GA...WITH LIKELY RANGE OVER THE REST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THE BEST RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 12Z-18Z SUN WHEN THE
SURFACE WAVE OF LOW LIFTS NE ACROSS THE CWA AND A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLES ACROSS THE MTNS ZONES IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
ALSO...HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
EARLY SUN AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF 100-200J/KG MUCAPE PER
LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF. POPS RAMP DOWN TO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER THE
MTN ZONES AND SOLD CHANCE RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE REGION
18Z THRU 00Z MON AS THE UPPER FORCING AND THE SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE NE. WITH MODELS TRENDING A BIT WETTER FOR THE
UPCOMING EVENT...HAVE GONE WITH THE HPC QPF GUIDANCE RESULTING IN
0.75-1.0" OVER THE WESTERN NC MTNS AND NE GA... WITH AROUND
0.25-0.5" ELSEWHERE THRU SUN EVENING.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW...OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL STAY 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH ONGOING
PRECIP...AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE AROUND 3-5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE IN A LULL
OF SORTS AT THE START OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING...AS
WE WILL BE IN A MINIMUM OF FORCING. THAT CHANGES QUICKLY BY LATE
EVENING AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET TRANSLATES
OVERHEAD BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND 09Z...AND THE MAIN SHORT WAVE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH IN THE 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY TIME FRAME. ALTHO THE WAVE
SHEARS AND DEAMPLIFIES AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...THE FORCING SHOULD
STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE PRECIP PRODUCTION...COMBINED WITH
IMPROVED MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT. SO...PRECIP CHANCES RAMP BACK UP TO
CATEGORICAL MAINLY OVER THE AREA ALONG AND N/W OF I-85...AND LIKELY
TO THE S...BY 06Z OR SO. THE MAIN FORCING SHOULD SHIFT E OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PRECIP PROBABILITY WILL BE OVER THE WRN
NC PIEDMONT ON MONDAY MORNING. POP WAS LIMITED TO LIKELY OUT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF THE FORCING...BUT COULD
EASILY HAVE TO BE KEPT CATEGORICAL BEYOND 12Z MONDAY WITH THE
SLIGHTEST DELAY. THE REST OF MONDAY WILL HAVE A SLOW RAMP DOWN
THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE AS FORCING GRADUALLY WEAKENS BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT THAT CROSSES FIRST THING IN THE DAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT/CHANCE OF
PRECIP. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW COMES AROUND TO SOMETHING NW MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE TN
BORDER. THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY OFF TO OUR N...WHICH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
BLEEDS DOWN INTO NC. PREFER TO KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NRN MTNS AND TO KEEP THE AREA E OF THE BLUE
RIDGE DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY.


ON SUNDAY THE FAIRLY BROAD FRONTAL ZONE WILL
EXTEND FROM QUEBEC SWWD TO THE WRN GULF COAST...BISECTING THE TENN
VALLEY JUST TO OUR WEST. AT LEAST ONE WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO RIDE
UP THE FRONT DURING THE DAY AS A RESULT OF CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW OVER
THE BOUNDARY CONTAINING EMBEDDED WEAK VORTICES. THOUGH SUCH A WAVE
WOULD LIKELY PROVIDE LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO LLVL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE EXISTENCE OF ONE IS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE
POOR AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE ON HOW THIS OCCURS.
OVERALL THE FORCING SUNDAY IS JUST NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. LITTLE
TO NO INSTABILITY IS PROGGED OVER THE CWFA AND THOUGH A GOOD SLUG OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PRESENT ON NAM/GFS PROGS THE LLVL LIFT IS
LIMITED. AT ANY RATE...THRU SUNDAY THE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ACRS THE SOUTHEAST...THE PARENT LOW CONTINUING TO
PROGRESS EWD WITH THE ACTIVE NRN STREAM WHILE THE BROAD SRN STREAM
TROUGH IS HELD OFF BY THE BERMUDA HIGH. IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL
NOT ACTUALLY ENTER THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY MRNG...WITH A DISTINCT
500MB SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT AS WELL AS UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOC
WITH RR QUAD OF A JET STREAK.

TWO PEAKS OF PRECIP ACTIVITY ARE SUGGESTED WHEN THE TOTAL FORCING IS
MAXIMIZED...SUNDAY MRNG AND THEN EARLY MON MRNG. HOWEVER IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A POINT BETWEEN WHERE A LULL SHOULD BE
BETWEEN...WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINING FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY...BUT CONCENTRATING MORE QPF CLOSE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED PEAKS. DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN...IN THE WARM AIRMASS
TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT 5-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUN AFTN...WITH MINS
MON MRNG BEING EVEN MORE ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. MAX
TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY OVER THE PIEDMONT
WITH THE FRONT NOT YET HAVING AN IMPACT.

PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS STILL PRETTY SLOW THRU MON
NIGHT...WITH THE CWFA NEAR THE INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE PLAINS
TROUGH AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. POPS DECLINE ONLY GRADUALLY THRU THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME QPF
CONTINUING ON THE BACK SIDE OF ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING NEAR
THE GA/SC COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ALL AREAS ON THE
ENSUING NLY FLOW MON NIGHT...THOUGH MIN TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH SPLIT
UPPER LVL FLOW...WITH A LARGE POLAR VORTEX SPINNING OVR HUDSON
BAY...AND A CUTOFF LOW INVOF CALIFORNIA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SLOWLY CONVERGING ON THE TIMING OF THE CUTOFF LOW BEING EJECT ACRS
INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THAT...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
FASTER/EARLIER...AND THE ECMWF SLOWER/DEEPER. THE LATEST WPC
PREFERENCE IS WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND NOT
AS DEEP WITH THE RESULTED PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROF AS THE ECMWF.
AT THE SFC...A BROAD AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL ENCOMPASS ABOUT
3/4TH OF THE CONUS ON WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY MODIFYING AND DRIFTING
EAST WITH THE CENTER CROSSING THE CWFA EARLY FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS THE EJECTING UPPER TROF FINALLY ENTERS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...A LOW PRES SYSTEM SHUD BEGIN TO ORGANIZE...TAPPING INTO
COPIOUS GULF MOISTURE. POPS WILL THEN RAMP UP BY NEXT WEEKEND. OF
COURSE...EXACT TIMING IS STILL THE MAIN QUESTION. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOW POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS AT ONSET
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THEN TURNING OVER TO ALL RAIN...AS STRONG SWLY
WAA SHUD DOMINATE ANY LINGERING IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. LLVL LIFT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINAL AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CLOUD
BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...REACHING
LIFR. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL RUN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
SUN AFTERNOON...LIKELY SUPPORTING A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.
THE INCREASED RAINFALL RATES MAY LOWER VIS TO IFR DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINFALL INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING VIS AND CIGS TO IMPROVE...BUT REMAINING IFR.

ELSEWHERE...MOIST SOUTHWEST LLVL WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MTNS
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
UPSLOPE FLOW IN INCREASING LLVL LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANDING
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE. IFR TO LIFR WILL
REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT REMAINING IFR. KAVL SHOULD SEE WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE NW BY 20Z...CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT OCCURS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
RETURN BY MID-WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     MED   75%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     LOW   58%     MED   79%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     LOW   37%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     LOW   56%     MED   62%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     LOW   54%     MED   70%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   68%     MED   64%     HIGH  80%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 715 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SMALL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD
FRONT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES OUR REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH
MONDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION IN THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL GET ORGANIZED
OVER TEXAS AND REACH OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM...I WILL UPDATE TO FINE TUNE CLOUDS....TEMPS...AND
POPS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOIST SOUTHWEST LLVL
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW IN INCREASING
LLVL LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND LOW
CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE.

AS OF 515 PM...LIGHT AND HIGH RADAR RETURNS WERE TRACKING ACROSS NRN
GA. THESE RETURNS HAVE NOT BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SFC OBS OF
RAIN...EXPECTING RETURNS FROM VIRGA. HOWEVER...A LARGE PATCH OF
LIGHT RAIN WAS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AL/GA LINE...THIS AREA SHOULD
RESULT IN RAIN ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. I WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST
POP TIMING AND ALIGN TEMP/DWPT WITH OBSERVATIONS.

AS OF 240 PM EST SATURDAY...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A DEEP
AND MOIST WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DOWN TO THE WESTERN GULF...AND TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH BROAD
AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS AN EASTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
US...MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE PIEDMONT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUN AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP INTO
THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF LIFTS NE ACROSS
AL/MI TONIGHT. THEREFORE...POPS QUICKLY RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST
INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER THE WESTERN MTNS ZONES AND NE
GA...WITH LIKELY RANGE OVER THE REST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THE BEST RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 12Z-18Z SUN WHEN THE
SURFACE WAVE OF LOW LIFTS NE ACROSS THE CWA AND A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLES ACROSS THE MTNS ZONES IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
ALSO...HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
EARLY SUN AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF 100-200J/KG MUCAPE PER
LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF. POPS RAMP DOWN TO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER THE
MTN ZONES AND SOLD CHANCE RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE REGION
18Z THRU 00Z MON AS THE UPPER FORCING AND THE SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE NE. WITH MODELS TRENDING A BIT WETTER FOR THE
UPCOMING EVENT...HAVE GONE WITH THE HPC QPF GUIDANCE RESULTING IN
0.75-1.0" OVER THE WESTERN NC MTNS AND NE GA... WITH AROUND
0.25-0.5" ELSEWEHRE THRU SUN EVENINING.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW...OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL STAY 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH ONGOING
PRECIP...AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE AROUND 3-5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE IN A LULL
OF SORTS AT THE START OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING...AS
WE WILL BE IN A MINIMUM OF FORCING. THAT CHANGES QUICKLY BY LATE
EVENING AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET TRANSLATES
OVERHEAD BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND 09Z...AND THE MAIN SHORT WAVE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH IN THE 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY TIME FRAME. ALTHO THE WAVE
SHEARS AND DEAMPLIFIES AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...THE FORCING SHOULD
STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE PRECIP PRODUCTION...COMBINED WITH
IMPROVED MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT. SO...PRECIP CHANCES RAMP BACK UP TO
CATEGORICAL MAINLY OVER THE AREA ALONG AND N/W OF I-85...AND LIKELY
TO THE S...BY 06Z OR SO. THE MAIN FORCING SHOULD SHIFT E OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PRECIP PROBABILITY WILL BE OVER THE WRN
NC PIEDMONT ON MONDAY MORNING. POP WAS LIMITED TO LIKELY OUT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF THE FORCING...BUT COULD
EASILY HAVE TO BE KEPT CATEGORICAL BEYOND 12Z MONDAY WITH THE
SLIGHTEST DELAY. THE REST OF MONDAY WILL HAVE A SLOW RAMP DOWN
THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE AS FORCING GRADUALLY WEAKENS BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT THAT CROSSES FIRST THING IN THE DAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT/CHANCE OF
PRECIP. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW COMES AROUND TO SOMETHING NW MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE TN
BORDER. THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY OFF TO OUR N...WHICH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
BLEEDS DOWN INTO NC. PREFER TO KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NRN MTNS AND TO KEEP THE AREA E OF THE BLUE
RIDGE DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY.


ON SUNDAY THE FAIRLY BROAD FRONTAL ZONE WILL
EXTEND FROM QUEBEC SWWD TO THE WRN GULF COAST...BISECTING THE TENN
VALLEY JUST TO OUR WEST. AT LEAST ONE WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO RIDE
UP THE FRONT DURING THE DAY AS A RESULT OF CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW OVER
THE BOUNDARY CONTAINING EMBEDDED WEAK VORTICES. THOUGH SUCH A WAVE
WOULD LIKELY PROVIDE LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO LLVL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE EXISTENCE OF ONE IS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE
POOR AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE ON HOW THIS OCCURS.
OVERALL THE FORCING SUNDAY IS JUST NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. LITTLE
TO NO INSTABILITY IS PROGGED OVER THE CWFA AND THOUGH A GOOD SLUG OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PRESENT ON NAM/GFS PROGS THE LLVL LIFT IS
LIMITED. AT ANY RATE...THRU SUNDAY THE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ACRS THE SOUTHEAST...THE PARENT LOW CONTINUING TO
PROGRESS EWD WITH THE ACTIVE NRN STREAM WHILE THE BROAD SRN STREAM
TROUGH IS HELD OFF BY THE BERMUDA HIGH. IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL
NOT ACTUALLY ENTER THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY MRNG...WITH A DISTINCT
500MB SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT AS WELL AS UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOC
WITH RR QUAD OF A JET STREAK.

TWO PEAKS OF PRECIP ACTIVITY ARE SUGGESTED WHEN THE TOTAL FORCING IS
MAXIMIZED...SUNDAY MRNG AND THEN EARLY MON MRNG. HOWEVER IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A POINT BETWEEN WHERE A LULL SHOULD BE
BETWEEN...WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINING FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY...BUT CONCENTRATING MORE QPF CLOSE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED PEAKS. DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN...IN THE WARM AIRMASS
TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT 5-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUN AFTN...WITH MINS
MON MRNG BEING EVEN MORE ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. MAX
TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY OVER THE PIEDMONT
WITH THE FRONT NOT YET HAVING AN IMPACT.

PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS STILL PRETTY SLOW THRU MON
NIGHT...WITH THE CWFA NEAR THE INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE PLAINS
TROUGH AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. POPS DECLINE ONLY GRADUALLY THRU THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME QPF
CONTINUING ON THE BACK SIDE OF ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING NEAR
THE GA/SC COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ALL AREAS ON THE
ENSUING NLY FLOW MON NIGHT...THOUGH MIN TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH SPLIT
UPPER LVL FLOW...WITH A LARGE POLAR VORTEX SPINNING OVR HUDSON
BAY...AND A CUTOFF LOW INVOF CALIFORNIA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SLOWLY CONVERGING ON THE TIMING OF THE CUTOFF LOW BEING EJECT ACRS
INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THAT...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
FASTER/EARLIER...AND THE ECMWF SLOWER/DEEPER. THE LATEST WPC
PREFERENCE IS WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND NOT
AS DEEP WITH THE RESULTED PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROF AS THE ECMWF.
AT THE SFC...A BROAD AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL ENCOMPASS ABOUT
3/4TH OF THE CONUS ON WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY MODIFYING AND DRIFTING
EAST WITH THE CENTER CROSSING THE CWFA EARLY FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS THE EJECTING UPPER TROF FINALLY ENTERS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...A LOW PRES SYSTEM SHUD BEGIN TO ORGANIZE...TAPPING INTO
COPIOUS GULF MOISTURE. POPS WILL THEN RAMP UP BY NEXT WEEKEND. OF
COURSE...EXACT TIMING IS STILL THE MAIN QUESTION. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOW POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS AT ONSET
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THEN TURNING OVER TO ALL RAIN...AS STRONG SWLY
WAA SHUD DOMINATE ANY LINGERING IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. LLVL LIFT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINAL AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CLOUD
BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...REACHING
LIFR. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL RUN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
SUN AFTERNOON...LIKELY SUPPORTING A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.
THE INCREASED RAINFALL RATES MAY LOWER VIS TO IFR DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINFALL INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING VIS AND CIGS TO IMPROVE...BUT REMAINING IFR.

ELSEWHERE...MOIST SOUTHWEST LLVL WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MTNS
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
UPSLOPE FLOW IN INCREASING LLVL LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANDING
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE. IFR TO LIFR WILL
REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT REMAINING IFR. KAVL SHOULD SEE WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE NW BY 20Z...CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT OCCURS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
RETURN BY MID-WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     LOW   58%     MED   77%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     LOW   43%     MED   76%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     MED   63%     MED   70%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     MED   61%     MED   70%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     MED   63%     HIGH  80%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 732 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING WESTERN MIDDLE TN AT THIS TIME. A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE IS NOTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR INFORMATION
BOTH SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL FILL IN ALONG AND WEST OF
THE ADVANCING TROUGH. A CLOSER LOOK DOES REVEAL SOME APPRECIABLE
SEPARATION IN REGARD TO THE 850 MB AND SFC FRONT.
FURTHERMORE...THE GREATER LOW LEVEL FORCING RESIDES ALONG THE 850
MB FRONT WHERE THE ANGULAR CONVERGENCE IS GREATER.

FOR THE FCST...DESPITE THE CURRENT DECREASE IN COVERAGE...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS AS WAS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE
COVERAGE SHOULD FILL BACK IN.

NO CHANGES FOR NOW TO THE FCST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE
TONIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE...BOTH IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE TAF
PD. AS A RESULT...LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST. RAINFALL
COVERAGE WILL LET UP SOME AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE TAF
PD...BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER
COVERAGE STRETCHING FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE BACK TO THE LOUISIANA-
TEXAS BORDER...AND SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST. THESE SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH AS IT
APPROACHES THE MID-STATE WILL BECOME ALIGNED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. LIGHTNING COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED...AND WITH FORECAST
MODELS SHOWING LAPS RATES BELOW 6 DEGREES HAVE REMOVED IT FROM
THE FORECAST. AFTER THE STEADY RAIN MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RETURN...WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM THE LOUISIANA- TEXAS BORDER TO
NORTH CAROLINA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BETTER MOISTURE AXIS AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WHILE MINIMAL...FAVOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL JUST HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY EVEN BE COMPLETELY DRY.
THIS SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL BRING STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 TO AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND A HALF BY MONDAY MORNING.

A SECONDARY FRONT WITH MUCH MORE NOTABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES
THROUGH THE MID-STATE WEDNESDAY...AND LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE LONG-RANGE MODELS INDICATE A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND TRACKING THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE WARM FRONT SURGE OUT
AHEAD OF IT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD AIR IN PLACE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...EVEN A
PERIOD OF SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. BY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY PER THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      45  45  36  49 / 100  80  70  10
CLARKSVILLE    41  42  33  47 / 100  60  20  10
CROSSVILLE     47  51  40  49 / 100 100  90  20
COLUMBIA       46  47  37  51 / 100  80  70  10
LAWRENCEBURG   47  49  37  51 / 100  80  90  10
WAVERLY        42  43  33  48 / 100  80  50  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX

 855 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.UPDATE...

Update on the status of the Winter Storm Warning for the Davis
and Apache Mountains, Marfa and Alpine areas and Winter Weather
Advisory for western Pecos County.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

IR satellite imagery was showing cloud tops cooling over southwest
Texas this evening ahead of a shortwave trough over Mexico.  At
28/0245Z, radar returns were showing bands of precipitation
streaking northeastward over the Warning and Advisory areas.  A
few calls to Marfa, Alpine and Fort Davis yielded reports of snow
falling in those areas, with near 1" of accumulation 7 WNW of
Alpine as of 28/0130Z and snow beginning to stick in Alpine at
28/02Z, with the same in Fort Davis.

The latest NAM is trickling in, and indicates snow will continue
to fall over southwest Texas tonight.  Since 4 to 6 inches of
snow are still possible in these areas, the Winter Storm Warning
will remain in effect until 28/09Z.  Further, north and east there
is a dry layer in the low to mid levels so precipitation will have
to moisten this layer for appreciable precipitation to hit the
ground.  When it does later tonight, surface temperatures are a
little warmer and snow accumulations should only be 1 to 2 inches
in western Pecos County.  Therefore, the Winter Weather Advisory
will continue. Think precipitation will be too light any further
northward or eastward for any expansion of the Winter Weather
Advisory.  Will continue to monitor.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Areas of light rain and snow will continue for the FST and PEQ
terminals.  Ceilings for these areas will remain low.  Clearing
skies are expected further north where the precipitation has ended.
The clearing skies may bring in more low ceilings or fog around 12z
Sunday morning.  Low ceilings/fog should be out of the area by 18z
Sunday with mostly clear skies for the rest of the day.  Winds will
become light and variable overnight with elevated southwest winds
returning Sunday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Current observations continue to show intermittent light snow
continuing over portions of southeast New Mexico and the western
Permian Basin. Significant snows have ended over the Guadalupe
Mountains and across Lea County New Mexico.  The HRRR and other
models suggest that lingering precipitation over these northern
areas will continue to wane while redevelopment will occur over the
higher elevations of SW Texas beginning later this afternoon into
evening.

While indications are that the positive tilt upper trough is
weakening/filling as it moves across the area, which is a negative
against significant snow, current QFP for this evening and BUFKIT
sounding interrogation suggests that snow redevelopment is
likely...especially over the higher elevations of SW Texas.  The
Marfa Plateau and the Davis Mountains could see significant snowfall
tonight.  The western half of Pecos county could also see some minor
snow accumulations.  For now, will issue a winter storm warning for
heavy snow for higher elevations of Presidio, Jeff Davis, and
Brewster County.  A winter weather advisory will be issued for Pecos
County.  Both the warning and advisory will be extended into the
overnight period.  However, most of the activity will probably occur
this evening.

As this upper trough rapidly exits the area tomorrow morning, zonal
upper flow is expected.  Surface lee trough development just east of
the Rockies will result in a quick warmup for our area tomorrow and
Monday.  However, a significant cool down is forecast for later
Monday into Tuesday.  The big question for now is what type of
precipitation will fall next week.  With shallow cold air in place
and an expected elevated warm later, indications are that freezing
drizzle will the predominant precipitation type most of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 26  48  29  56  /  20   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              28  51  33  59  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                22  50  30  56  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  34  53  33  62  /  60   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           28  53  37  63  /  60   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          22  41  30  51  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   22  46  26  54  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   20  48  19  60  /  70  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    25  50  30  57  /  20   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  26  50  33  57  /  20   0   0   0
WINK TX                    26  53  27  63  /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Pecos.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 3 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

99/99

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX

 537 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of light rain and snow will continue for the FST and PEQ
terminals.  Ceilings for these areas will remain low.  Clearing
skies are expected further north where the precipitation has ended.
The clearing skies may bring in more low ceilings or fog around 12z
Sunday morning.  Low ceilings/fog should be out of the area by 18z
Sunday with mostly clear skies for the rest of the day.  Winds will
become light and variable overnight with elevated southwest winds
returning Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Current observations continue to show intermittent light snow
continuing over portions of southeast New Mexico and the western
Permian Basin. Significant snows have ended over the Guadalupe
Mountains and across Lea County New Mexico.  The HRRR and other
models suggest that lingering precipitation over these northern
areas will continue to wane while redevelopment will occur over the
higher elevations of SW Texas beginning later this afternoon into
evening.

While indications are that the positive tilt upper trough is
weakening/filling as it moves across the area, which is a negative
against significant snow, current QFP for this evening and BUFKIT
sounding interrogation suggests that snow redevelopment is
likely...especially over the higher elevations of SW Texas.  The
Marfa Plateau and the Davis Mountains could see significant snowfall
tonight.  The western half of Pecos county could also see some minor
snow accumulations.  For now, will issue a winter storm warning for
heavy snow for higher elevations of Presidio, Jeff Davis, and
Brewster County.  A winter weather advisory will be issued for Pecos
County.  Both the warning and advisory will be extended into the
overnight period.  However, most of the activity will probably occur
this evening.

As this upper trough rapidly exits the area tomorrow morning, zonal
upper flow is expected.  Surface lee trough development just east of
the Rockies will result in a quick warmup for our area tomorrow and
Monday.  However, a significant cool down is forecast for later
Monday into Tuesday.  The big question for now is what type of
precipitation will fall next week.  With shallow cold air in place
and an expected elevated warm later, indications are that freezing
drizzle will the predominant precipitation type most of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Pecos.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 3 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

99

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 1232 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 59 ARE REPORTING
MVFR CIGS WITH THE MVFR CIG LINE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT KHOU AFTER 20Z AND
AT KLBX AND KGLZ BETWEEN 01 AND 02Z. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A STRONG
ON SHORE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF TOMORROW`S COLD FRONT...LIGHT STREAMER
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE.

BIG QUESTION IS HOW LOW CIGS WILL GO OVER NIGHT. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR PREVAILING IFR/LIFR
CIGS...HOWEVER I AM NOT READY TO BITE ON THIS SOLUTION BECAUSE THE
MODELS OVER FORECASTED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING IN THE LOWER LAYERS TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD
FOG. AT THIS TIME...I ANTICIPATE ENOUGH MIXING TO ONLY PRODUCE
MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT.

TOMORROW MORNING...IFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST WHERE SEA FOG MAY HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH KCLL AT 13Z...KCXO
BEWTEEN 15-18...AND KIAH AROUND 21Z. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AT INLAND LOCATIONS...HOWEVER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SATURDAY WAS ANALYZED AS OF 10 AM JUST NORTH OF LUBBOCK STRETCHING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS WICHITA...KS. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED
OFF AND ON THIS MORNING COURTESY SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
PROMOTING MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE HOUSTON METRO FROM THE GULF. LATEST
HRRR AND RAP RUNS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER WITH CLOUDS THINNING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURE TRENDS APPEAR
TO BE ON TRACK. NO CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
30-35KT LLVL JET WILL CONTINUE TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING SATURATION AS THE
DAY WEARS ON AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME STREAMER SHRA IN THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN. SIMILAR SITUATION TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED COVERAGE OF DRIZZLE/-RA (MAYBE AN EMBEDDED ISO TSTM OR
TWO). IF SFC WINDS ARE ABLE TO LAY DOWN ENOUGH PATCHY SEA FOG
CAN`T BE RULED OUT EITHER. WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED POPS UP A TOUCH
DURING BOTH PERIODS...MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT OVERALL JUST NUISANCE
ACCUMULATIONS.

BETTER SHOT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED ON SAT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
SE TX AND PROVIDES MORE OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM. BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE MOVING THRU CLL AREA MID/LATE MORNING AND OFF THE COAST SAT EVENING.
WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD WE GET
ENOUGH INSTABILITY - HOWEVER THAT`S NOT LOOKING TOO PROMISING
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. DID ADVERTISE
FALLING DAYTIME TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE HOURLY GRIDS SAT.

UPPER TROF LAGS TO THE WEST AND SW FLOW ALOFT & FAVORABLE JET
POSITION WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO SUNDAY UNTIL THE TROF
AXIS FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY.

1048MB+ ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
AND INTO SE TX AROUND THE 31ST. TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS AND SUSPECT WE MIGHT NEED TO LOWER
THEM FURTHER IN THE COMING DAYS IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
PATTERN ALOFT AGAIN BECOMES SW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS S/W DIGS
DOWN WEST COAST WHICH WOULD FAVOR CONTINUING CLOUDS AND INCREASING
POPS POST FROPA JAN 1-2. SEE NOTHING TO INDICATE FROZEN PRECIP
ACROSS SE TX ATTM...JUST COLD RAIN.  47

MARINE...
LOW-LEVEL JET MAKING ITS PRESENCE KNOWN THIS MORNING WITH ELEVATED
WINDS/SEAS PREVAILING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS TIGHTENED GRAD-
IENT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTN HRS...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
EASE UP TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN
(AND ACROSS) SE TX SAT MORNING/AFTN.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS SAT EVE. HOWEVER SHORT TERM TRENDS
WITH THE MODELS HINTING THAT THE FRONT COULD BE A BIT SLOWER...AND
ITS PASSAGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE SAT NITE
INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. IF THIS VERIFIES SEA FOG A SLIGHTLY BETTER
POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORN. THE CONTINUING WAA ACROSS
THE COOLER SHELF WATERS TO ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG.

IN THE MEANTIME...WILL BE RAISING/EXTENDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR OUR NEAR/OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING ON THROUGH NOON.
FOR NOW. MODERATE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE
SCEC OR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SUN. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      61  63  41  51  37 /  30  60  40  20   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  73  47  50  41 /  50  70  40  50  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            66  70  51  51  49 /  40  70  70  60  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...44



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 1029 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SATURDAY WAS ANALYZED AS OF 10 AM JUST NORTH OF LUBBOCK STRETCHING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS WICHITA...KS. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED
OFF AND ON THIS MORNING COURTESY SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
PROMOTING MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE HOUSTON METRO FROM THE GULF. LATEST
HRRR AND RAP RUNS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER WITH CLOUDS THINNING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURE TRENDS APPEAR
TO BE ON TRACK. NO CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
30-35KT LLVL JET WILL CONTINUE TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING SATURATION AS THE
DAY WEARS ON AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME STREAMER SHRA IN THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN. SIMILAR SITUATION TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED COVERAGE OF DRIZZLE/-RA (MAYBE AN EMBEDDED ISO TSTM OR
TWO). IF SFC WINDS ARE ABLE TO LAY DOWN ENOUGH PATCHY SEA FOG
CAN`T BE RULED OUT EITHER. WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED POPS UP A TOUCH
DURING BOTH PERIODS...MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT OVERALL JUST NUISANCE
ACCUMULATIONS.

BETTER SHOT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED ON SAT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
SE TX AND PROVIDES MORE OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM. BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE MOVING THRU CLL AREA MID/LATE MORNING AND OFF THE COAST SAT EVENING.
WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD WE GET
ENOUGH INSTABILITY - HOWEVER THAT`S NOT LOOKING TOO PROMISING
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. DID ADVERTISE
FALLING DAYTIME TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE HOURLY GRIDS SAT.

UPPER TROF LAGS TO THE WEST AND SW FLOW ALOFT & FAVORABLE JET
POSITION WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO SUNDAY UNTIL THE TROF
AXIS FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY.

1048MB+ ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
AND INTO SE TX AROUND THE 31ST. TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS AND SUSPECT WE MIGHT NEED TO LOWER
THEM FURTHER IN THE COMING DAYS IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
PATTERN ALOFT AGAIN BECOMES SW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS S/W DIGS
DOWN WEST COAST WHICH WOULD FAVOR CONTINUING CLOUDS AND INCREASING
POPS POST FROPA JAN 1-2. SEE NOTHING TO INDICATE FROZEN PRECIP
ACROSS SE TX ATTM...JUST COLD RAIN.  47

MARINE...
LOW-LEVEL JET MAKING ITS PRESENCE KNOWN THIS MORNING WITH ELEVATED
WINDS/SEAS PREVAILING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS TIGHTENED GRAD-
IENT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTN HRS...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
EASE UP TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN
(AND ACROSS) SE TX SAT MORNING/AFTN.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS SAT EVE. HOWEVER SHORT TERM TRENDS
WITH THE MODELS HINTING THAT THE FRONT COULD BE A BIT SLOWER...AND
ITS PASSAGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE SAT NITE
INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. IF THIS VERIFIES SEA FOG A SLIGHTLY BETTER
POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORN. THE CONTINUING WAA ACROSS
THE COOLER SHELF WATERS TO ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG.

IN THE MEANTIME...WILL BE RAISING/EXTENDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR OUR NEAR/OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING ON THROUGH NOON.
FOR NOW. MODERATE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE
SCEC OR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SUN. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  61  63  41  51 /  40  30  60  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  65  73  47  50 /  30  50  70  40  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  66  70  51  51 /  30  40  70  70  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 1137 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF OF THE GULF AND A DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL HELP DEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE INLAND SITES
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE MODELS WERE ALSO INTRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS GENERALLY AFTER 17Z. THERE WAS ONE DIFFERENCE FROM THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE 00Z NAMBUFR WAS FORECASTING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CEILINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND FELT THAT THERE WAS A GOOD
ENOUGH CHANCE TO INTRODUCE VFR CEILINGS FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER
00Z. SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AS THE DEWPOINTS RISE
INTO THE LOWER 60S AND MOVE OVER THE FAIRLY COOL CONTINENTAL SHELF
WATERS NEAR THE COAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...INTRODUCED THE
POSSIBILITY TO THE KGLS SITE AT 02Z.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS STARTED TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE CRP AREA THIS
EVENING AND IS STILL ON TRACK TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS EVENING. A WEDGE OF VORTICITY EMBEDDED IN A SHORTWAVE
IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE
TX/ LA BORDER TOMORROW MORNING. MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL LIMITED
BUT LATEST HRRR RUN HAS A LINE OF SHOWERS FORMING THANKS TO THE
LIFT AND MOVING INLAND. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HAVE A
SATURATED LAYER UP TO AROUND 800 MB THOUGH. DUE TO THIS HAVE MADE
MINOR CHANGES TO POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME
SHOWERS FORMING THIS MORNING FROM THE SHORTWAVE. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MODELS ARE AGAIN SHOWING STREAMER SHOWERS AND CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED. BESIDES MINOR CHANGES TO POP GRIDS FOR
THIS MORNING NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  70  60  64  42 /  10  30  40  60  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              52  72  63  72  47 /  10  30  50  70  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            59  70  64  70  53 /  10  30  40  70  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...40




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 853 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SLOWLY
MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. WEAK WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WILL SPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 830 PM EST SATURDAY...

CLOUDS HAVE QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH A LEAD FAINT MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN PIECES
OF SOUTHERN STREAM SUPPORT TO THE SW. HOWEVER MOSTLY OF THE MID
DECK VARIETY WITH ANY -RA OR SPRINKLES CONFINED JUST WEST OF THE
CWA CLOSER TO THE UPSTREAM FRONT/JET. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME
INTERMITTENT -RA PERHAPS MAKING IT TO THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT WITHOUT MUCH ORGANIZATION GIVEN LINGERING DRY AIR
ALOFT PER EVENING SOUNDINGS...AND BEST LIFT WEST-NW OF THE REGION
UNTIL DAYBREAK. THUS SLOWED DOWN MAIN CORRIDOR OF POPS A BIT MORE
OVERNIGHT AS MAY BE DURING SUNDAY BEFORE BETTER COVERAGE ARRIVES
AS SEEN VIA THE LATEST NAM. OTHER CONCERN WITH LOW TEMPS AS THE
CURRENT CLOUD CANOPY HAS TENDED TO STOP FALLS FOR THE MOMENT WITH
MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE 50S. IR PICS DO SHOW SOME BREAKS
HEADING THIS WAY OUT OF TN SO STILL SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME
SPOTS SNEAK BACK DOWN GIVEN DRY AIR. HOWEVER APPEARS EVEN WITH
SOME ADDED COOLING BY LATE RAINFALL THAT WILL NEED TO RAISE LOWS
A CAT OR TWO MOST SPOTS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 340 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE AFTERNOON MILD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY RESULT IN SOME MILD TEMPS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THICKEST SOONER. IN THE EAST...CLOUDS WILL NOT THICKEN UP UNTIL
SOME LATE AFT/EARLY EVENING RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO MAY END UP
BEING COOLER IN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT THERE THAN IN MTNS. WENT
WITH OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS...AND WITH COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN EAST.

OTHERWISE...MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS TIMING OF PRECIP HEADED
NORTHEAST OUT OF GULF COAST AREA WITH SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DOWN THERE NOW ACTING IN SOME WAY TO ROB SOME
OF THE MOISTURE...AS WELL AS VERY DRY AIRMASS WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN
PLACE THAT COULD HELP SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL. MODEL TRENDS...AND HIGH
RES CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING VERSIONS...NOW HOLD PRECIP OFF UNTIL MAYBE
JUST BEFORE 12Z IN FAR SW AND FAR WEST PART OF AREA. SO LOWERED
POPS SLIGHTLY...MAINLY FROM 06-12Z TIME FRAME....AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST PART OF AREA WHERE IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT NO PRECIP
WILL REACH PAST ROANOKE BEFORE THEN. WHATEVER DOES REACH FAR SW BY
EARLY MORNING WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...MAIN BAND OF STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LEANING TOWARD NAM/ECWMF/SREF
IDEA THAT BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM BLUE RIDGE WEST...WITH MORE
SCATTERED LIGHTER PRECIP INITIALLY IN PIEDMONT...ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS
WOULD DISAGREE. THEN THIS WAVE MOVES OUT BY LATER AFTERNOON BUT
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE KEEPING HIGH POPS IN WEST AND REDUCED TO
CHANCE IN PIEDMONT FOR LATE IN DAY INTO EARLY EVENING.

NEXT WAVE THEN ARRIVES ALONG BOUNDARY BY EVENING...AND THIS ZONE
OF STEADIER RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO TAKE A TRACK A LITTLE MORE
TO SOUTH OF FIRST ONE...WITH FOOTHILLS TO PIEDMONT GETTING MOST OF
THE MODERATE RAINFALL. OTHER THAN GFS...SEEING SOME TRENDS OVER
LOWERING AMOUNTS WITH THIS...WHICH IS PARTLY REFLECTIVE OF
WEAKENING UPPER WAVE BEING STRETCHED WITH TIME AS WELL AS SOME
MOISTURE STEALING FROM CONVECTION WELL TO SOUTH. NOT LOOKING AT
NEARLY ENOUGH RAINFALL FOR ANY PROBLEMS. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THAT.

TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE MILD...ALTHOUGH SOME COOLER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO WESTERN APPALACHIAN SLOPES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY SNOW...EVEN AT HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE LAST WAVE IN THE SERIES ALONG A SLOW-MOVING CLOD FRONT SHOULD BE
EXITING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM EARLY MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH POPS SLOWLY DIMINISHING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
SLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SO HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOUNCE
BACK SOME FROM MORNING LOWS AND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM UPPER 30S
NW TO UPPER 40S SE UNDER STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER THE INCREASING
SOUTHWARD SPILL OF COLDER AIR AND MAY CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST CWA BY EVENING MONDAY
AND HAVE INTRODUCED VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS..LESS THAN 1 INCH
IN THOSE COLDER AREAS...MAINLY GREENBRIER AND BATH COUNTIES. COLDER
AIR EMANATING FROM THE MASSIVE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS WILL OOZE EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY AS H85 TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY
TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO SLIP INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY..RANGING FROM L/M 30S WEST TO MID-40S
SE...ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE DECEMBER CLIMO. WEDNESDAY
MORNING LOWS FALL BACK CLOSE TO ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEAR 20F NW TO UPPER 20S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM EST SATURDAY...

LONG RANGE MODELS...AT LEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH FAIR CONTINUITY AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE NEW
YEAR. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN
CANADA...SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO A CUTOFF AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
BE POSITIONED OFF THE PAC NW COAST. THIS PATTERN FAVORS COLD
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES (CONUS) AND SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS...AND MILDER AIR
CONFINED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CONUS...I.E. FLORIDA. FOR THE
MID ATLANTIC WE WILL LIKELY END UP IN THE TRANSITION ZONE...OR
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. WORST CASE...WE MAY
END UP 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL FOR NEW YEARS DAY...BUT
NOTHING EXTREME.

AFTER THURSDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED SINCE
THEY DO NOT HANDLE CUTOFF LOWS VERY WELL...AND ESPECIALLY THOSE
THAT EJECT FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE EVOLVING MEAN
PATTERN THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE UPPER LOW
WHICH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSES OFF OVER/NEAR CA/AZ INITIALLY BUT THEN
DIVERGE ON WHEN THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST DURING THE FRIDAY
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE
SPREAD REGARDING THE TIMING AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER DEGREE TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS 12-24 HOURS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH MAKES A DIFFERENCE IN WHETHER IT
PRECIPITATES HERE ON FRIDAY VS SATURDAY. THIS HIGH SPREAD/LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FAVORS AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE FORECAST REFLECTING A BLEND...WITH CHC
PRECIP BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE GREATEST POPS FAVORING
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS OVERLAP. TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO DETERMINE P-TYPE. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE BORDERLINE CRITICAL FRIDAY...SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME
WINTRY MIX IF PRECIP ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING. IF ONSET HOLDS OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY...THE P-TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 558 PM EST SATURDAY...

SOMEWHAT LOWER VFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE
WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE
SHORTLY AND OUT EAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER MUCH OF THIS IN THE
4-6K FT RANGE WITH SOME POCKETS OF MID DECK SO APPEARS WILL STAY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
INITIAL WAVE WILL PUSH NE INTO THE SE WEST VA SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE FOLLOWED BY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE AT KBLF/KLWB JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE IF NOT A
BIT SOONER...BUT MAINLY LIGHT...SO OVERALL VFR VSBYS IN ANY PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. FIRST WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO SCOOT ACROSS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE SPOTTY COVERAGE FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST...AND MVFR OVER THE WEST ESPCLY KBLF/KLWB.
APPEARS THIS WILL MAINLY GO TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STEADIER RAIN ARRIVES OVER THE FAR WEST/NW IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN IT APPEARS THAT CIGS/VSBYS WILL
DETERIORATE QUICKER PENDING HOW FAST THINGS BECOME SATURATED IN
THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL RAINFALL. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN IN THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME ESPCLY SE WEST VA SITES WHERE LIKELY
WITHIN STEADIER RAINFALL...AND BLUE RIDGE LOCATIONS GIVEN SOMEWHAT
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WONT GO AS LOW AS THE LATEST NAM IN
SHOWING WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR AT ALL SITES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER TRENDING INTO SOLID IFR WEST...MIX OF MVFR/OCNL IFR BLUE
RIDGE INCLUDING KBCB/KROA...AND MAINLY MVFR AT KDAN/KLYH PENDING
DEGREE OF PRECIP THEY SEE SUNDAY MORNING.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
FINAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE BOUNDARY BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST TIME TO SEE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS
AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCLUDING PERHAPS KLWB THAT
MAY STAY WITH ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS JUST NORTH OF THE MAIN PRECIP
SHIELD. OTRW EXPECTING PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS...-RA AS WELL AS
DRIZZLE/FOG TO COVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY
SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT GIVEN LOW
LEVEL NE FLOW.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT DRIFTS OFF TO THE SE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE
LEAVING PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN STAYING SUB-VFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE FOG/DRIZZLE
AROUND OVERNIGHT. SLOW DRYING TO TAKE SHAPE ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER MAY
TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN SITES TO RETURN TO VFR WHILE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS COULD CAUSE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST OVER THE
WEST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS RETURNING UNDER VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST SATURDAY...

RIVER MODEL RUNS FROM THE VARIOUS RFCS FROM THIS MORNING INCORPORATE
THE UPCOMING WET PERIOD WITH BASIN AVERAGE QPF VALUE ACROSS THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA BASINS RANGING FROM ABOUT 0.75 INCHES IN THE
UPPER JAMES TO AS MUCH AS 1.20 INCHES OVER THE LOWER DAN. THE
RESULTING RIVER FORECASTS BRING STAGE UP SEVERAL FEET...BUT STILL
WELL WITHIN BANKFULL...SO NO FLOODING ISSUES EXPECTED. SOILS ARE
FAIRLY WET BUT RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODEST SO FLASH
FLOODING NOT AN ISSUE EITHER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/SK
NEAR TERM...JH/SK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/RCS/SK
HYDROLOGY...PC



YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

 










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 357 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

CHALLENGES SURROUND SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 26.00Z MODEL SUITE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...BUT DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON
THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE HIGHEST QPF. WILL LEAN TOWARD A
NAM/ECMWF BLEND WITH SUPPORT FROM THE SREF WHICH BEST MATCH
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT WITH THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING.

MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG TIGHT 850 TO 700 HPA THERMAL GRADIENT. ANYTHING THAT
DOES CREEP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WILL LIKELY FALL AS DRIZZLE GIVEN WEAK
LIFT AND A DRY PROFILE ABOVE 1 TO 2 KM. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST
RELATIVELY MILD DAY FOR AWHILE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND INTERACTS WITH A SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MO AT 27.06Z WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WI
SIX HOURS LATER. COLUMN TO QUICKLY SATURATE AND EXPECT DEFORMATION
PRECIPITATION AXIS FROM NORTHWEST IA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
MN AND THEN INTO WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THERMAL PROFILE
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LOWER SNOW RATIOS INITIALLY TO
RISE TO AROUND 14:1 BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH COOLING COLUMN. WITH
QPF AROUND TWO TO THREE TENTHS...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT
AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM DODGE
CENTER TO WINONA TO WASSAU.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A TWO-PART WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL SNOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
FIRST PART INCLUDES DODGE/OLMSTED/WABASHA COUNTIES FROM 27.00Z TO
28.15Z AND THE SECOND PART FOR BUFFALO/TREMPALEAU/JACKSON/TAYLOR/
CLARK COUNTIES FROM 27.03Z TO 28.18Z. A TIGHT GRADIENT IN
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THESE COUNTIES
WITH SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENT. COLD FRONT
TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY BEGINNING THE DECLINE IN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY.
NORTHWEST WIND TO PICK-UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 MPH. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW TO EXIT THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SYNOPTIC REGIME SHIFTS TO DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD TROUGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. THIS BRINGS LOW SNOW CHANCES MONDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AS SHORT-WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BIGGER STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES TO DROP DAILY AND BOTTOM OUT ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO. ASSUMING SOME
DEGREE OF CLEARING...MANY LOCATIONS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY
LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPINNING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. IFR-MVFR
CIGS ARE LOCATED POST THE SFC TROUGH...AND ANTICIPATE THESE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS KRST TOWARD 10Z...CLOSER TO 12Z FOR KLSE. DECENT
UPGLIDE ON THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC SFCS COULD PRODUCED PATCHY AREAS
OF -DZ/FZDZ IN THE LOW CLOUD LAYER. NOT AS CONFIDENT AS EARLIER WITH
THIS OCCURRING THOUGH...WITH RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND EVEN THE NAM
NOT AS BULLISH ON THE POSSIBILITIES. WILL PULL MENTION AT KRST AS A
RESULT...AND LET SFC OBS/RADAR TRENDS DICTATE WHETHER IT NEEDS TO BE
ADDED BACK. NAM BUFKIT DOES SUGGEST -DZ COULD MOVE IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME REDUCTIONS OF VSBY WITH LOW
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATION OF KRST.

SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH THE SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATED
ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES AT THIS TIME. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUB
1-2SM WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWS. LIFR/IFR CIGS ALSO LIKELY FOR A PERIOD
BETWEEN 06-18Z SAT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ079-086-087.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION.....RIECK



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1100 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PRODUCING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING TONIGHT SO DECIDED TO KEEP IT
AS PROBABILITY INSTEAD OF COVERAGE. IF THE DRIZZLE DEVELOPS...SOME
VERY LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADS AND ELEVATED
SURFACES. ALSO...MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG TONIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE PLAN ON LOWS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT.

ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AS A
SEPARATE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SNOW AND
RAIN LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING IN
COVERAGE GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 40 ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

BY FRIDAY EVENING...A BAND OF SNOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR
NOT THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHS WILL INTERACT
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM AND GFS OFFER
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WHICH WOULD YIELD LIGHTER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE GEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH STRONGER...AND
DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IF THESE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS VERIFY...WE WOULD SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. EITHER WAY...TRAVEL WILL
BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SLIPPERY ROADS EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEEING
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH PLUS RANGE AT THIS TIME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS THEN SWEEPS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE COLD
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS TUESDAY..WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OPEN AREAS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE WIND CHILL
VALUES COULD FALL TO AROUND -20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPINNING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. IFR-MVFR
CIGS ARE LOCATED POST THE SFC TROUGH...AND ANTICIPATE THESE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS KRST TOWARD 10Z...CLOSER TO 12Z FOR KLSE. DECENT
UPGLIDE ON THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC SFCS COULD PRODUCED PATCHY AREAS
OF -DZ/FZDZ IN THE LOW CLOUD LAYER. NOT AS CONFIDENT AS EARLIER WITH
THIS OCCURRING THOUGH...WITH RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND EVEN THE NAM
NOT AS BULLISH ON THE POSSIBILITIES. WILL PULL MENTION AT KRST AS A
RESULT...AND LET SFC OBS/RADAR TRENDS DICTATE WHETHER IT NEEDS TO BE
ADDED BACK. NAM BUFKIT DOES SUGGEST -DZ COULD MOVE IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME REDUCTIONS OF VSBY WITH LOW
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATION OF KRST.

SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH THE SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATED
ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES AT THIS TIME. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUB
1-2SM WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWS. LIFR/IFR CIGS ALSO LIKELY FOR A PERIOD
BETWEEN 06-18Z SAT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 1218 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TOMORROW, THEN STALL TO OUR SOUTH
AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDES ALONG IT MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A COLD AIR MASS SLIDES SOUTH AND
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY. ON FRIDAY, A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE EITHER, JUST SLIGHT POP
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST RAP AND HRRR BLEND.

OVERALL, NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. MOSTLY HOURLY
GRID ADJUSTMENTS MADE, BUT WE DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR SOME AREAS. MAINLY PORTIONS OF THE PINE
BARRENS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
RADIATED QUITE EFFICIENTLY. OTHERWISE, FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN A SOMEWHAT
MOISTER AIRMASS, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE JUST TO OUR WEST RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING...THIS IS WHEN WE INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE.
THERMAL PROFILES SHOW ALL AN LIQUID PTYPE FOR THE REGION AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER-30S IN A
LOT OF PLACES EXCEPT WHERE THEY HAVE RADIATED MORE ALREADY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK
MID-LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD ULTIMATELY SLOW ITS DEPARTURE DOWN A BIT. A MAJORITY OF
THE GUIDANCE HAS US DRYING OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING, JUST AHEAD OF THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL CAA KICKING IN.
THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES LATE IN
THE PERIOD, DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE CAN COOL BELOW 850MB AND HOW
MUCH MOISTURE REMAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED AND THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MOST MODELS DID AGREE ON ONE
THING, THEY ARE MOSTLY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
A PHILLY TO ACY LINE. NAM IS BY FAR THE WETTEST AND SNOWIEST
OUTLIER SHOWING SNOW FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION. GIVEN THAT THE
TREND WITH THE OTHER MODELS HAS BEEN DRIER FOR A FEW RUNS NOW, AND
GIVEN HOW MUCH OF AN OUTLIER THE NAM IS, FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS
AND ECMWF. THEY BOTH SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE
STALLING, WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO STALL OR SLOW BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE SC COAST.
AS A RESULT, BUT THE TIME THE SECONDARY LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NE
ALONG THE FRONT, IT IS MUCH FURTHER OUT TO SEA THAN WHAT PREVIOUS
RUNS SHOWED.

EVEN IN DELMARVA THOUGH, THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR EVENT
AS WHEN THE MOISTURE IS THE MOST ABUNDANT, SUNDAY NIGHT, IT WILL
STILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, COLDER AIR HAS SETTLED IN, BUT SO HAS DRY AIR
ADVECTION, LIMITING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AN INCH.

FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE WEATHER LOOKS TRANQUIL,
ALBEIT COLD. THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN
OVER THE REGION. AS SUCH MANY LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE NEXT THING ON THE HORIZON IS AN INTENSE LOW, MODELED TO
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY LIFTING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. GIVEN HOW MUCH UNCERTAINTY THERE IS EARLY IN THE
WEEK, AND GIVEN A LARGE SPREAD IN TIMING AND TRACK BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF, IT/S RISKY TO HANG A HAT ON EITHER SOLUTION. HOWEVER,
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE IMPACTS TO THIS REGION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION, PRIMARILY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LOW AS
IT STAYS NW OF THE REGION (MEANING PRIMARILY RAIN). WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO REFINE THIS ONCE WE SEE HOW THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM PLAYS
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

06Z TAFS CONTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DURING MORE FREQUENT
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

EARLY MORNING, VFR SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN TERMINALS TOWARD
DAWN. SOME MVFR FOG AT KILG, SHOULD DISSIPATE AS CLOUDS BECOME
THICKER. OTHERWISE A VFR CIG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS VFR
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING TERMINALS WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR
LATER IN THE MORNING. VFR CIG IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KPHL AREA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS/AIRPORTS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
EXPECTING A VFR CIG MORNING WITH SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ALL TERMINALS VSBY RESTRICTIONS TOO BRIEF TO INCLUDE, MAINLY VFR
VSBYS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SPEEDS SHOULD
BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING. VFR MID LEVEL CIGS. NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO
10 KNOTS. SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND DELMARVA AIRPORTS MIGHT SEE A
SECOND SURGE OF MAINLY VFR RAIN LATE AT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY TO TUESDAY....MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG AND
NORTH OF A KACY TO KPHL LINE. FOR KMIV AND KILG, THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION, SOME OF WHICH COULD FALL AS SNOW. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY PRECIP.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND 3 FEET THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE AN INCREASE TO AROUND
4 FEET IS POSSIBLE...BETTER FARTHER NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 TO MAYBE 15
KNOTS, THOUGH GUSTS SHOULD BE KEPT BELOW 20 KNOTS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS
THE WEST LATER TOMORROW EVENING AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, WAVES OF 3 TO 4 FT, AND WIND GUSTS NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE 20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 429 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF RAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...AND A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO WEST
TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO MISSISSIPPI. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUMP MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MODELS KEEP MUCH OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. WE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE WEST...AND DRIER ACROSS THE EAST. MILD TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND 70 SOUTH AND EAST
ARE FORECAST TODAY.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASES OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. SHOULD
SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AS SEVERAL
WEAK WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN CONTINUES MONDAY...THEN BEGIN TAPERS TO AN END MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40 MONDAY NIGHT WILL COOL
INTO THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN IT WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEN PUSH OFF THE
COAST INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
THEN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. MODELS
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND HAVE GENERALLY
GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP READINGS WARM
ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIP WILL BE ALL LIQUID.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
88D SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL AL NORTHEAST ACROSS NRN GA INTO THE NW HALF OF SC.
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION NW OF
THE TAF SITES...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING. THIS IS AGREES WITH MODELS TAKING BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS THE UPSTATE.

CLOUD BASES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR OGB.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS/CSRA THIS MORNING AND EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO
BECOME MVFR. LATEST HRRR INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES BY MID/LATE
MORNING. TO MVFR THIS MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE MOIST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TONIGHT AROUND/AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER 06Z.

NEAR CALM WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS
AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
305 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

Main short-term challenge will be timing of the clearing trend
today. 08z/2am IR satellite imagery shows low clouds covering much
of central Illinois, except across the far northern KILX CWA from
Peoria northward where clouds have eroded. The 06z NAM 1000-850mb RH
field has a good handle on the current cloud cover, so have
generally followed its solution for sky cover today.  End result
will be clearing skies along the I-74 corridor by mid to late
morning, with clouds lingering into the afternoon further south.
Skies will become mostly clear across the board by late afternoon as
high pressure builds in from the west.  High temperatures will be
near normal for this time of year in the middle to upper 30s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

Quiet weather is expected for the next several days before a storm
system gradually approaches from the southwest by the end of the
week.  High pressure will control the weather across central
Illinois on Monday, resulting in cool/dry conditions with highs in
the 30s. Meanwhile, a significant chunk of cold air currently in
place across central/western Canada will sink southward into the
central CONUS by the middle of the week.  Models have been hinting
at some light snow/flurries as CAA increases Monday night into
Tuesday, with the NAM being more aggressive with potential QPF.  NAM
time-height cross-sections reveal stronger lift within a deeper
moist layer than the GFS indicates.  Think the low-level moisture
may be a bit overdone on the NAM, so am leaning toward the GFS
solution here.  Even with drier air below 850mb, think lift will be
strong enough to warrant mention of a few flurries Monday night and
perhaps even into Tuesday morning before moisture profile thins and
high pressure builds into the region.  Heart of the cold airmass
will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday, when overnight lows dip
into the single digits and teens and highs only reach the lower to
middle 20s.

Once high slowly begins to shift eastward, attention turns to a
developing southern-stream storm system associated with a cut-off
upper low over the Desert Southwest.  Models are still displaying
a typical spread of solutions that far out, but confidence is
growing that a precipitation event will impact central Illinois by
the end of the week.  Both the GFS and ECMWF show surface low
pressure developing over the Texas panhandle by Friday evening, then
lifting northeastward into the Great Lakes on Saturday.  While their
tracks are not in perfect agreement, a N/NW trend is becoming
apparent.  GFS takes the low west of the CWA to near Moline by 12z
Sat, while the ECMWF tracks the low to near Champaign.  Both tracks
are further N/NW than previous runs, which suggests precip may be
more in the form of rain or a rain/snow mix across the area than
previously thought.  Based on GFS forecast soundings, if precip is
able to spread northward into the initially cold/dry airmass Friday
morning, light snow will be the primary precip type.  As temps warm
into the middle to upper 30s, the snow will likely mix with rain
across much of the area by Friday afternoon.  Precip will likely
remain quite light during the day Friday, with widespread precip
holding off until Friday night when airmass saturates and stronger
lift arrives.  At this point, will carry rain along/south of
I-70...a rain/snow mix across the middle of the CWA...and snow
along/north of a Rushville to Bloomington line Friday night into
Saturday.  The track of the system will likely change with
successive model runs, so precip type and any potential snow
accumulations still remain uncertain.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

Precip has shifted east of all the terminal sites, and MVFR clouds
will blanket the area the rest of the night and through much of
the morning tomorrow. CMI has a brief break in the MVFR clouds
until 07z/1am, but low clouds will fill in by 07z. The back edge
of the clouds is positioned to our west from south-central
Wisconsin through SE Iowa and down through the middle of Missouri.
The clearing progression has slowed later this evening, and that
trend should allow low clouds to linger over the terminal sites
into tomorrow morning. PIA should be the first to clear out,
possibly as early as 12-13z. Clearing trends should speed up with
turbulent mixing of dry air tomorrow, reaching BMI by 14z, SPI by
16z, CMI by 18z and DEC by 19z. The HRRR is quicker with clearing,
as is the RAP. Will stick with a more pessimistic clearing trend
until satellite images give more confidence in the models cloud
progressions. Wind speeds will decrease below 10kt by 08z-09z
tonight, and remain less than 10kt through the day tomorrow. Wind
direction will start out NW, then back to the west during the day
as high pressure builds farther into Illinois.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 150 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
307 PM CST

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION...USHERING IN MUCH
COOLER AIR ALONG WITH SOME SCT LIGHT PCPN.  AS OF 230PM CDT...THE
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...TO
EAST-CENTRAL IL...TO SERN MO.  WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO ARND 30
MPH FOLLOWING THE FROPA WHILE VEERING FROM SWLY TO WLY.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY DROPPING OFF WITH THE FROPA AND THE BULK OF
THE PCPN IS POST-FRONTAL AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS SET UP ALONG
AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE.  SOME SCT RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER
NWRN IN AND ECNTRL IL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AS COOLER AIR FILTERS
IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...LIQUID PCPN IN THE POST-SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SOME GRAPPLE.  THE SHARPER TEMPERATURE DROPOFF WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SECONDARY TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURGE OF COOLER AIR PUSHED ACROSS THE EVENING WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO WLY-WNWLY.  ANY LINGERING PCPN SHOULD
PUSH END OVER NWRN IL-ECNTRL IL DURG THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM ARND 20F OVER THE ROCKFORD
AREA TO THE UPPER 20S EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR.

KREIN

&&

.LONG TERM...
307 PM CST

SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS A
SIGNAL OF A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS OF RECENT DAYS BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS THE
SHORT-WAVELENGTH...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH SHEARS OUT INTO BROAD WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.  THE GENERAL
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR A
SLOW COOLING TREND UNDER BROAD...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.  A
STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR WITH A SERIES OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES
WILL USHER IN THE TRUE COLD AIR BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING DROPPING OFF INTO THE LOWER TEENS OVER
THE ROCKFORD AREA TO AROUND 20F EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR.  THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SET UP TO MORE ZONAL OVER THE SRN CONUS
AS THE MAIN JET PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH WHILE POLAR-SOURCED
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK.  THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ALSO BECOME LESS
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A CUT OFF
LOW DIGGING INTO SRN CALIFORNIA AND VERY SLOWLY TRACKING EWD THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY LATE NEXT WEEK WHILE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND GREATER
ANTILLES.  THE SLOWING PROGRESSION TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL IN
TURN SET UP A PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES KEEPING
A STEADY STREAM OF SEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION.  THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
TRIES TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE SNOW IN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT.
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...
PERHAPS A  DUSTING WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGIONS...A PERIOD OF GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INITIALLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE MONDAY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO THE EAST OVER NWRN
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS FLOW BACKS MORE NWLY.
IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO DISCUSS ACCUMULATIONS WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AT THIS POINT...BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME MEASURABLE
ACCUMULATION.  MIDWEEK SHOULD BE DRY...BUT WITH THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SERN CONUS.  BY LATE NEXT WEEK...THE
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE CUT OFF LOW DROPPING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  HOWEVER...WHILE THE LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TREND...THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF OR GEM.  GIVEN THAT SOUTHWEST CUT-OFF LOWS TEND TO LINGER
LONGER THAN THE MODELS LIKE TO FORECAST...HAVE TRENDED THE LONGER
TERM FORECAST CLOSER TO THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS TREND EVEN SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  SO...WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE LEVELS WITH TEMPERATURES
CONDUCIVE TO SNOW FOR NOW.

KREIN

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* MVFR CIGS CLEAR OUT PRIOR TO SUNRISE

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS UPSTREAM OVER NW IL AND SW WI WILL
CONTINUE STEADY SOUTHEAST PROGRESS OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO GO VFR PRIOR TO SUNRISE AT ALL TERMINALS. OTHERWISE
LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES REMAINDER OF TAF CYCLE.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE TIMING OF CLEARING
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EVERYTHING ELSE

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...CHC SNOW LATE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
FRIDAY...CHC SNOW. MVFR/IFR PSBL.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...
150 AM CST

MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE SOME TODAY AND THEN VEER MORE
NORTHERLY TOONIGHT INTO MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN UP
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE FURTHER TO GALES WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTH INTO HUDSON BAY TIGHTENING UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
ARCTIC AIR FIRMLY ENTRENTCHED OVER THE AREA. WINDS LOOK TO SUBSIDE
LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY RAMPING UP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY APPROACHES THE
REGION THOUGH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THAT SYSTEM.

IZZI

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1142 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

The cold air aloft driving into the north side of the system has
been changing the rain over to snow and sleet for a couple of
hours at the end of precipitation. There seems to be less evidence
of the snow/sleet band in the observations and reports over the last
hour or so, but the air temps are dropping toward freezing in the
back edge of the precip, so will continue to indicate a band of
snow/sleet at the western edge of precip until precip comes to an
end later tonight. Any light snow/sleet accumulation would create
slippery roads. Road temps have generally been reporting above
freezing, but some bridges, overpasses, and secondary roads would
be more susceptible to icing. The precip is increasing its forward
progress toward Indiana, and we have adjusted the weather grids to
end precip a few hours sooner tonight. All precip will likely be
out of our counties by 1 am and possibly midnight.

Gusty northwest winds will develop after precip ends, ushering the
colder air. Some clearing is forecast for our NW counties later
tonight, which would allow low temps to drop off a bit farther
than guidance. Will trim a couple degrees off lows toward
Galesburg/Lacon. Updated forecast grids and info will be available
shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

Low clouds, drizzle, light rain showers still ongoing across the
forecast area this afternoon.  Cold front about out of ILX
area...just NW of Lawrenceville.  Some flakes mixing into the precip
on the extreme NW edge of the post frontal echos on radar.  Front
progression somewhat steady although running into more parallel flow
aloft.  Cold dense air from the NW really colder behind the post
frontal precip spread across the radar mosaic.  Timing of the cold
air a minor concern as time progresses.  Ground temps still close to
40 degrees, but with the arrival of the freezing temps, some
elevated surfaces could develop some slick spots. The arrival of the
coldest air will be after the precip has come to an end...so
freezing should be confined to the  residual moisture/puddles from
today`s drizzle/rain. Another issue with the overnight forecast is
the cloud cover. GFS is quick to break it out...a little faster than
is currently represented on sat imagery.  NAM is far cloudier,
trapping the moisture in the boundary layer and preventing the mix
out entirely.  RUC looking more like the NAM with representing the
developing inversion behind the boundary.  Plenty of dry air up
there, but how quickly it will erode through the clouds is a huge
question mark.  Covered in cirrus all day, not convinced the diurnal
influence on the clouds is enough to erode them at sunset.
Considering how quickly sunset is approaching, going to split the
difference more or less with a slower clearing out...but not quite
as trapped as the NAM. Some breaking up could be seen in the far NW,
and forecast low temps are considerably cooler as a result.
However, going cloudier overall through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

High pressure behind the front will bring dry weather to the area
for tomorrow through Monday. However, this mild high pressure area
will be temporary as a stronger/colder high pressure area drops into
the region Tuesday. A weak boundary will be between these two high
pressure areas, but it will have very little moisture to work with.
This will be an Arctic front with much colder air behind it. Any
precip with this Arctic front will be very light and could occur
Monday night. With the colder temps and limited moisture, only pcpn
expected will be flurries. Also believe this will be across the
northern 2/3rds of the CWA, leaving the southeastern CWA dry as the
area flurries moves east.

Temps will be around normal tomorrow and Monday, but then drop to
below normal for Tue as the Arctic cold high pressure moves in.

Cold, dry Arctic high pressure will dominate the area for days 3-5,
but as the high pressure modifies and moves into southeastern US,
temps will begin to warm gradually and a weather system will develop
in the southwestern US and begin to move out into the plains. With
high pressure to the east and a surface low pressure area to the
west, warmer air will not be the only thing to return to the area.
Moisture will also return and this will bring pcpn to the area as
the moisture interacts with a warm front and lifts northward into
the area. P-type could be very interesting and be dependent on the
surface temperature and temps in the lower levels. Models
forecasting temps above zero at 850mb over the area, which would
indicate rain. However, surface temps look to be below freezing Fri
night; and this could mean frozen pcpn possible. Considering Fri
through Sat is Day6-7, will not get too detailed on pcpn type and
just go with snow or rain, or a mix of rain and snow. Thinking
mostly rain on Friday with a mix in the north, then a mix becoming
all snow on Fri night, and then all snow in the east on Sat. Am
expecting the p-type to change over the next several days, and when
the event becomes better defined by the models and closer.

As mentioned earlier, temps will start cold and then gradually warm
during the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

Precip has shifted east of all the terminal sites, and MVFR clouds
will blanket the area the rest of the night and through much of
the morning tomorrow. CMI has a brief break in the MVFR clouds
until 07z/1am, but low clouds will fill in by 07z. The back edge
of the clouds is positioned to our west from south-central
Wisconsin through SE Iowa and down through the middle of Missouri.
The clearing progression has slowed later this evening, and that
trend should allow low clouds to linger over the terminal sites
into tomorrow morning. PIA should be the first to clear out,
possibly as early as 12-13z. Clearing trends should speed up with
turbulent mixing of dry air tomorrow, reaching BMI by 14z, SPI by
16z, CMI by 18z and DEC by 19z. The HRRR is quicker with clearing,
as is the RAP. Will stick with a more pessimistic clearing trend
until satellite images give more confidence in the models cloud
progressions. Wind speeds will decrease below 10kt by 08z-09z
tonight, and remain less than 10kt through the day tomorrow. Wind
direction will start out NW, then back to the west during the day
as high pressure builds farther into Illinois.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 353 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  A DRY SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND TUESDAY. IN THE
LONG TERM AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY AND COLD
WEATHER. HOWEVER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND ACROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION WAS ENDING RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
WILL PRETTY MUCH BE DONE BY FORECAST RELEASE TIME. SOME SITES ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MAY SEE A LITTLE DRIZZLE PRIOR TO 7AM.

MAIN ISSUES TODAY WILL BE HOW LONG CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AND
TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING LINE ACROSS NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW HOLES FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
THE RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM MIDDAY ON.  EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS MOST OF TODAY AS THIS WILL BE LAST AREA TO CLEAR
OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO
AROUND 40 FAR SOUTH WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO OUR REGION.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
INDICATE HIGHS SHOULD BE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
TO AROUND 40 FAR SOUTH WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS INDIANA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.
THE NAM SHOWS SOME QPF ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
ALL OTHER MODELS ARE DRY.  ALL MODELS INDICATE SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  AS A COMPROMISE
WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ON TO THE EAST TUESDAY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE AROUND -5 TO -8 MONDAY WILL COOL TO -10
TO -13 CELSIUS TUESDAY. THUS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COLDER TUESDAY AND EVEN COLDER ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE ARCTIC AIR
PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  IN MOST CASES MOS SEEMS TO TO
HANDLING THIS OK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD.  FIRST...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING BETTER CONSISTENCY IN
THE TRACK COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.  NOW THE GFS AND EURO ARE BOTH ON
BOARD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND UP INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA.  LATEST INITIALIZATION WAS A TAD FAST WITH BRINGING PRECIP
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
NIGHT.  NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING THAT FAST...SO
REMOVED MENTION OF ANY PRECIP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE MISSOURI VALLEY.  THE LIKELY POPS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT THAT REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS TRENDING TOWARD MATCH
NICELY.  SO...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS TO POPS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE IS STILL LOW UNTIL THE EXACT
TRACK BECOMES SOLIDIFIED...BUT IT/S LOOKING LIKE SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN/SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE
REMAINING TWO-THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

UPDATE...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT KIND AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

RAIN HAS ENDED AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KBMG BUT SHOULD ALSO END
THERE WITHIN THE HOUR OR AROUND 280700Z.

WITHIN COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTING IN...VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED TO 6+
MILES AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST.

MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS ILLINOIS BUT SEEM TO
BE SETTLING TOWARDS DECKS OF 1800-2200 FEET AND THESE SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MORNING.  AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING IN AND
SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO DRY THIS LOWER LAYER EXPECT BREAKS IN THE 2000
FOOT DECK AROUND 281800Z AND EVENTUAL CLEARING OF ALL CLOUDS BY
290000Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...DT/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 335 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  A DRY SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND TUESDAY. IN THE
LONG TERM AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY AND COLD
WEATHER. HOWEVER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND ACROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION WAS ENDING RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
WILL PRETTY MUCH BE DONE BY FORECAST RELEASE TIME. SOME SITES ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MAY SEE A LITTLE DRIZZLE PRIOR TO 7AM.

MAIN ISSUES TODAY WILL BE HOW LONG CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AND
TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING LINE ACROSS NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW HOLES FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
THE RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM MIDDAY ON.  EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS MOST OF TODAY AS THIS WILL BE LAST AREA TO CLEAR
OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO
AROUND 40 FAR SOUTH WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO OUR REGION.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
INDICATE HIGHS SHOULD BE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
TO AROUND 40 FAR SOUTH WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS INDIANA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.
THE NAM SHOWS SOME QPF ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
ALL OTHER MODELS ARE DRY.  ALL MODELS INDICATE SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  AS A COMPROMISE
WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ON TO THE EAST TUESDAY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE AROUND -5 TO -8 MONDAY WILL COOL TO -10
TO -13 CELSIUS TUESDAY. THUS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COLDER TUESDAY AND EVEN COLDER ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE ARCTIC AIR
PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  IN MOST CASES MOS SEEMS TO TO
HANDLING THIS OK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE POPS AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE STARTING FRIDAY. PRIOR TO THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE AS STRONG COLD WESTERN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO END THE OLD YEAR AND START THE NEW
ONE.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL
BE OVER NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA DURING THE EVENING OF THE FIRST DAY OF
2015. HOWEVER...THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE RAPIDLY WITH THE MUCH
QUICKER 12Z GFS BRINGING A STRONGER SURFACE SYSTEM BUT WEAK UPPER
WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS EVEN A WEAKER BUT MUCH SLOWER WAVE LIFT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BY NEXT SATURDAY EVENING. THE EURO ALSO HAS THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE 12Z GFS POSITION SATURDAY EVENING.
THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE THE GFS
HAS IT OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DESPITE ALL THESE DIFFERENCES...BOTH
MODELS START THE QPF ON FRIDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. MEANWHILE...THE EURO WAS HOLDING MORE QPF AROUND ON
SUNDAY THAN THE GFS. SO...STILL EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  WITH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
LOW...WILL ACCEPT THE REGIONAL BLEND THAT KEEPS DECENT POPS AROUND
NEXT SATURDAY AS HINTED AT BY THE EURO.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES WITH THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES. CONFIDENCE NOT GOOD AS TO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL BE IN SPACE AND TIME. HOWEVER...NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE FROZEN OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION THEN THE SOUTHWESTERN ONES ON FRIDAY BASED ON
THERMAL PROFILES FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
WOULD HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF MIXED OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION THAN THE
SOUTHEAST AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF
THE SURFACE SYSTEM. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET COULD POSSIBLY MIX IN AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES. DO NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY COME
CLOSER TOGETHER IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20S LOOK
GOOD ON NEW YEAR`S DAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S THEREAFTER.
MEANWHILE...NEW YEARS EVE NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR THE FIRST SUNRISE OF THE YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S AND 30S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

UPDATE...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT KIND AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

RAIN HAS ENDED AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KBMG BUT SHOULD ALSO END
THERE WITHIN THE HOUR OR AROUND 280700Z.

WITHIN COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTING IN...VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED TO 6+
MILES AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST.

MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS ILLINOIS BUT SEEM TO
BE SETTLING TOWARDS DECKS OF 1800-2200 FEET AND THESE SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MORNING.  AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING IN AND
SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO DRY THIS LOWER LAYER EXPECT BREAKS IN THE 2000
FOOT DECK AROUND 281800Z AND EVENTUAL CLEARING OF ALL CLOUDS BY
290000Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DT/TDUD

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 329 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. A DRY
SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION
AROUND TUESDAY. IN THE LONG TERM AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING DRY AND COLD WEATHER. HOWEVER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN THIS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 845 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST PROGRESSION OF BAND OF PRECIP INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SNOW...PERIODS OF EITHER...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET AS WELL IN MOST
AREAS...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY DO SO FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IF NOT ALL
NIGHT ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO SPED UP ENDING
OF PRECIP A BIT BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

TRENDS AMONG THE MODELS REMAIN VIRTUALLY THE SAME...WITH THE EURO
AND NAM BEING MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND GEM. AS
USUAL...THE SREF AND HRRR TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE FASTER AND
SLOWER SOLUTIONS...SO LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THIS GUIDANCE WHEN
CREATING THE POPS FOR TONIGHT. ALSO TRIED TO WORK IN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY ON THE RADAR SCOPE WITH ONE WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL LATER THE EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. WHILE THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO APPROACH
THE CENTRAL INDIANA AREA FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS AREA WILL
MAKE IT/S WAY THROUGH THE BULK OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROM 00Z TO 08Z.
WITH A FEW COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SEEING SOME
LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING...BOTH OF WHICH
WILL BE TRICKY. ALL OF THE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN
WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND
PUSH TOWARD THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY 2-3 AM. BEST CHANCE IN TERMS OF
PRECIP TYPE ARE STILL A -RA/SN MIX...CANNOT RULE OUT ANY SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES HOWEVER NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THIS MIX WILL
WORK IT/S WAY TOWARD THE E/SE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE PRECIP
BEHIND IT BEGINS TO WIND DOWN AND DRY OUT OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS 31-36.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

AS MENTIONED IN ABOVE DISCUSSION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME REMNANT
MIXTURE OF -RA/SN FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SEVERAL OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE THAT FRONT MOVES FARTHER FROM THE AREA
AND DRIER AND COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
LOW CHANCE POPS THERE AT LEAST THROUGH 14-15Z SUNDAY MORNING.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE BETTER
HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OVER THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOWER OR MIDDLE 20S MONDAY
NIGHT AS A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE POPS AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE STARTING FRIDAY. PRIOR TO THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE AS STRONG COLD WESTERN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO END THE OLD YEAR AND START THE NEW
ONE.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL
BE OVER NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA DURING THE EVENING OF THE FIRST DAY OF
2015. HOWEVER...THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE RAPIDLY WITH THE MUCH
QUICKER 12Z GFS BRINGING A STRONGER SURFACE SYSTEM BUT WEAK UPPER
WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS EVEN A WEAKER BUT MUCH SLOWER WAVE LIFT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BY NEXT SATURDAY EVENING. THE EURO ALSO HAS THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE 12Z GFS POSITION SATURDAY EVENING.
THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE THE GFS
HAS IT OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DESPITE ALL THESE DIFFERENCES...BOTH
MODELS START THE QPF ON FRIDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. MEANWHILE...THE EURO WAS HOLDING MORE QPF AROUND ON
SUNDAY THAN THE GFS. SO...STILL EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  WITH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
LOW...WILL ACCEPT THE REGIONAL BLEND THAT KEEPS DECENT POPS AROUND
NEXT SATURDAY AS HINTED AT BY THE EURO.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES WITH THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES. CONFIDENCE NOT GOOD AS TO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL BE IN SPACE AND TIME. HOWEVER...NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE FROZEN OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION THEN THE SOUTHWESTERN ONES ON FRIDAY BASED ON
THERMAL PROFILES FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
WOULD HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF MIXED OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION THAN THE
SOUTHEAST AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF
THE SURFACE SYSTEM. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET COULD POSSIBLY MIX IN AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES. DO NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY COME
CLOSER TOGETHER IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20S LOOK
GOOD ON NEW YEAR`S DAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S THEREAFTER.
MEANWHILE...NEW YEARS EVE NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR THE FIRST SUNRISE OF THE YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S AND 30S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

UPDATE...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT KIND AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

RAIN HAS ENDED AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KBMG BUT SHOULD ALSO END THERE
WITHIN THE HOUR OR AROUND 280700Z.

WITHIN COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTING IN...VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED TO 6+
MILES AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST.

MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS ILLINOIS BUT SEEM TO
BE SETTLING TOWARDS DECKS OF 1800-2200 FEET AND THESE SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MORNING.  AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING IN AND
SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO DRY THIS LOWER LAYER EXPECT BREAKS IN THE 2000
FOOT DECK AROUND 281800Z AND EVENTUAL CLEARING OF ALL CLOUDS BY
290000Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DT/TDUD

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1212 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. A DRY
SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION
AROUND TUESDAY. IN THE LONG TERM AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING DRY AND COLD WEATHER. HOWEVER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN THIS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 845 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST PROGRESSION OF BAND OF PRECIP INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SNOW...PERIODS OF EITHER...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET AS WELL IN MOST
AREAS...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY DO SO FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IF NOT ALL
NIGHT ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO SPED UP ENDING
OF PRECIP A BIT BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

TRENDS AMONG THE MODELS REMAIN VIRTUALLY THE SAME...WITH THE EURO
AND NAM BEING MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND GEM. AS
USUAL...THE SREF AND HRRR TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE FASTER AND
SLOWER SOLUTIONS...SO LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THIS GUIDANCE WHEN
CREATING THE POPS FOR TONIGHT. ALSO TRIED TO WORK IN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY ON THE RADAR SCOPE WITH ONE WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL LATER THE EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. WHILE THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO APPROACH
THE CENTRAL INDIANA AREA FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS AREA WILL
MAKE IT/S WAY THROUGH THE BULK OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROM 00Z TO 08Z.
WITH A FEW COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SEEING SOME
LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING...BOTH OF WHICH
WILL BE TRICKY. ALL OF THE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN
WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND
PUSH TOWARD THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY 2-3 AM. BEST CHANCE IN TERMS OF
PRECIP TYPE ARE STILL A -RA/SN MIX...CANNOT RULE OUT ANY SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES HOWEVER NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THIS MIX WILL
WORK IT/S WAY TOWARD THE E/SE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE PRECIP
BEHIND IT BEGINS TO WIND DOWN AND DRY OUT OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS 31-36.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

AS MENTIONED IN ABOVE DISCUSSION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME REMNANT
MIXTURE OF -RA/SN FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SEVERAL OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE THAT FRONT MOVES FARTHER FROM THE AREA
AND DRIER AND COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
LOW CHANCE POPS THERE AT LEAST THROUGH 14-15Z SUNDAY MORNING.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE BETTER
HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OVER THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOWER OR MIDDLE 20S MONDAY
NIGHT AS A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE POPS AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE STARTING FRIDAY. PRIOR TO THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE AS STRONG COLD WESTERN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO END THE OLD YEAR AND START THE NEW
ONE.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL
BE OVER NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA DURING THE EVENING OF THE FIRST DAY OF
2015. HOWEVER...THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE RAPIDLY WITH THE MUCH
QUICKER 12Z GFS BRINGING A STRONGER SURFACE SYSTEM BUT WEAK UPPER
WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS EVEN A WEAKER BUT MUCH SLOWER WAVE LIFT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BY NEXT SATURDAY EVENING. THE EURO ALSO HAS THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE 12Z GFS POSITION SATURDAY EVENING.
THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE THE GFS
HAS IT OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DESPITE ALL THESE DIFFERENCES...BOTH
MODELS START THE QPF ON FRIDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. MEANWHILE...THE EURO WAS HOLDING MORE QPF AROUND ON
SUNDAY THAN THE GFS. SO...STILL EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  WITH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
LOW...WILL ACCEPT THE REGIONAL BLEND THAT KEEPS DECENT POPS AROUND
NEXT SATURDAY AS HINTED AT BY THE EURO.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES WITH THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES. CONFIDENCE NOT GOOD AS TO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL BE IN SPACE AND TIME. HOWEVER...NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE FROZEN OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION THEN THE SOUTHWESTERN ONES ON FRIDAY BASED ON
THERMAL PROFILES FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
WOULD HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF MIXED OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION THAN THE
SOUTHEAST AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF
THE SURFACE SYSTEM. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET COULD POSSIBLY MIX IN AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES. DO NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY COME
CLOSER TOGETHER IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20S LOOK
GOOD ON NEW YEAR`S DAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S THEREAFTER.
MEANWHILE...NEW YEARS EVE NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR THE FIRST SUNRISE OF THE YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S AND 30S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1211 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

RAIN HAS ENDED AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KBMG BUT SHOULD ALSO END THERE
WITHIN THE HOUR OR AROUND 280700Z.

WITHIN COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTING IN...VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED TO 6+
MILES AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST.

MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS ILLINOIS BUT SEEM TO
BE SETTLING TOWARDS DECKS OF 1800-2200 FEET AND THESE SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MORNING.  AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING IN AND
SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO DRY THIS LOWER LAYER EXPECT BREAKS IN THE 2000
FOOT DECK AROUND 281800Z AND EVENTUAL CLEARING OF ALL CLOUDS BY
290000Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DT

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 150 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR AND
OBS. OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS DOWN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. THE HRRR SHOWED
THAT THE PCPN WOULD PUSH IN MOST EFFECTIVELY FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHILE THE FAR EAST STAYS NO WORSE THAN
SCATTERED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS ALONG WITH A NEW SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN EARLY ROUND OF
SHOWERS TO THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THESE HAVE BEEN BATTLING THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE AREA...BUT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH THE
GROUND WITH THE HEAVIER RETURNS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOISTEN UP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING WITH THE NEXT SURGE
AFTER MIDNIGHT LIKELY TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE ENTIRE CWA.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S...ONCE THE RAIN MOVES IN PROPERLY...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CAPPED IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO FINE TUNE THE POP CHANCES AND INFUSE SOME OF THE
LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INTO THE T AND TD GRIDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT TO NDFD AND THE WEB SERVERS. A ZFP UPDATE WILL FOLLOW LATER
THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIDESPREAD RAINS ARE ON OUR DOORSTEP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AS OF 20Z
IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A SWATH OF RAIN MOVING UP FROM
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST OFF THE NC COAST IS RETREATING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.
HENCE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER STILL ARE PRESENT IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA A TAD LONGER...BUT AN
NEW DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL REINFORCE THE MOISTURE SURGE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY BY TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. MODELS SUPPORT THIS TREND AND AS SUCH...AM QUITE
CONFIDENT THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL MATERIALIZE TONIGHT AND HAVE
GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS.

THE STUBBORN RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING LATE MONDAY AS THE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS LIFTS INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD THOUGH...QUITE A STRONG MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP RAIN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BE SLOW ENOUGH TO EXIT BEHIND THE FRONT THAT COLDER AIR MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF INSTANCES OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN OR
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST BLUEGRASS COUNTIES AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING VIRGINIA. ANY INSTANCES THAT
DO OCCUR ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
OVERALL...A WET AND RAINY END TO THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING TO THE NEW
WEEK IS ON TAP.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

A COLD FRONT...AND WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...WILL
BE EXITING THE AREA TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY. BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS...WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. BASED ON
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH AROUND 12Z ON MONDAY. AFTER THAT...ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD
SPILL INTO THE REGION TO ALLOW SOME SNOW FLURRIES TO MIX WITH
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
TRANSITION BETWEEN PRECIP TYPES...SO THAT MODEL WAS USED TO CREATE
THE POPS AND PRECIP TYPES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE
PRECIP EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGIONS WEATHER THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY
POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO FORM IN THE SOUTHERN
JET STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES
EASTWARD...THE MODELS HAVE IT TAPPING INTO AMPLE GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHOULD THE MODELS PAN OUT...THE
FIRST PRECIP WOULD ENTER EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND NOON ON THURSDAY AND
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THERE. BY 2 OR 3Z FRIDAY...THE
SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO SOME COLDER AIR...ALLOWING FOR PRECIP ALONG THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO MIX WITH SNOW. THE
PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY AROUND 6Z FRIDAY AS MORE COLD
AIR SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTH. WARMER AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO PROGRESS
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING PRECIP TO
TRANSITION BACK TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN RAIN BY EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR THE TRANSITION TO SNOW. THEREFORE...HAVE ELECTED TO
GO WITH ONLY MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THIS OVERALL TREND UNTIL THE
DATA SETTLES ON A SOLUTION. THE COLDEST DAYS UPCOMING LOOK TO BE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS COLD AIR INVADES BEHIND THE INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DAYTIME HIGHS ON THOSE THREE DAYS MAY NOT RISE OUT
OF THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...WITH HIGH IN THE LOWER 40S ON TAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST AS DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
FOLLOWED MODEL GUIDANCE...BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN GRADUALLY. BUT
OBSERVATIONS AT LEAST INITIALLY SUGGEST A QUICKER TRANSITION. LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST WINDOW. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RAY






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

 406 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER OHIO WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY BY
TUESDAY...AND GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 08Z...1025MB SFC HIGH IS APPROACHING BERMUDA WHILE 999MB SFC
LOW IN QUEBEC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS HALFWAY ACROSS OHIO WITH
SUBTROPICAL AIR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. AN UPR TROUGH AXIS IS OVER
THE SRN GREAT PLAINS. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN OVER THE CWA WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH TEMPERATURES IN MIXED AREAS IN THE UPR
40S TO AROUND 50F. SOME POCKETS OF UPR 30S PERSIST IN DECOUPLED
AREAS. RAPID INCREASES INTO THE MID OR POSSIBLY UPR 50S ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING WITH 14C AIR AT 925MB OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...
THICKENING CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S OVER THE AREA.

THE LAST LEADING SHOWERS (FOR NOW) ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN
BALTIMORE METRO. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE 06Z HRRR TO REACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS IN THE MID-MORNING
HOURS. FORWARD PROGRESS WILL SLOW FROM THERE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
SPREAD NORTHEAST UP THE PARENT UPR TROUGH. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH QPF GENERALLY LESS THAN
TWO TENTHS INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN WILL DRIFT SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
MONDAY. PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL TENTH INCH RAIN...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
OF DC. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH TONIGHT WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN MIN TEMPS OF LOW 30S FOR NRN AND WESTERN
FRINGES...MID TO UPR 30S ELSEWHERE. RAIN ENDS AS SNOW FOR THESE
FRINGE AREAS NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND FOR RIDGES. NO SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE ADDED AS OF YET WITH LOW POPS...BUT THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DUSTING...PARTICULARLY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS.

21Z SREF WAS EAGER TO HAVE HIGH POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH
MONDAY. HOWEVER...WENT WITH CONSENSUS OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH HAVING
LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN LIMITED TO SRN MD MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS MORE NELY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER TERRAIN THE SWRN PART OF THE CWA. NO WINTRY
ACCUMULATION THERE EITHER WITH JUST CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASICALLY THE EXTENDED BOILS DOWN TO TWO PRECIP SYSTEMS AT THE START
AND END OF THE LONG TERM WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN.

MON AND MON NIGHT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY BASED ON MODEL SPREAD
OF PRECIPITATION FOR MON. 00Z/NAM AND GFS SOLNS SHOW MOST OF THE
PRECIP SLIPPING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA EARLY MONDAY AM. BUT
00Z/ECMWF LINGERS SOME MOISTURE ACROSS SRN TIER OF ZNS. KEPT
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON OVER THE CWA...AND WITH TEMPS
COLD ALOFT BUT BOUNDARY TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...MENTIONED
RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE. BY MON NIGHT...LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES WARRANT CHANCE POPS...WITH LIKELY POPS IN
FAR SW PORTION OF CWA ACROSS HIGHLAND COUNTY AND SRN PENDLETON
COUNTIES...AND COLD ENOUGH THERE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AROUND AN
INCH IN UPSLOPE AREAS.

TUE...COLD AIR LOFT IS A CERTAINTY AS THE LARGE POLAR AIR MASS
SETTLES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z/NAM
AND 03Z/SREF ARE AGAIN SHOW BEING AGGRESSIVE WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE THAT THE 00Z/GFS/ECMWF/UKMO SOLNS SHOW A MUCH WEAKER
AND FLATTER SYSTEM THAT STAYS SOUTH. AT THIS POINT ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS TUE WILL BE LIGHT BUT COULD BE IN FORM OF SNOW.

WED-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER AND
DRY CONDITIONS.

LATE FRI-SAT...NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
MODELS SHOW A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE FRI MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...
LOTS OF WARM AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA...CHANGING PRECIP
TO LIQUID BY SAT MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING AND POSITION AND
TRACK OF THE LOW IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE MORNING AS RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. MVFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON IN
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. FRONT STALLS/DRIFTS SOUTH TONIGHT...SO CONDS
CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH IFR POSSIBLE...BUT KEPT 06Z TAFS WITH MVFR
CIGS. LIGHT WLY FLOW TODAY...NWLY FLOW UP TO 10 KT TONIGHT...NLY
FLOW 10 KT MONDAY.

MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS MON AND MON EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS TUE
THROUGH THU...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS IN SNSH- ACTIVITY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SWLY FLOW VEERS NWLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BE A NLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND
18 KT LATE TONIGHT. DID NOT RAISE AN SCA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT
ONE OUT OF SANDY POINT IS POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY.

MON-WED...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. PRECIP ON MON
PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST LATE MON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUE AND
CONTINUES THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...SMZ
AVIATION...BAJ
MARINE...BAJ/SMZ










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 1134 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. NO BIG STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEW YEARS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED AT 02Z FROM ROUGHLY ALPENA
EXTENDING SW TO HARRISON AND LITTLE SABLE POINT. THIS FEATURE HAS
BEEN THE IMPETUS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF GRAND
RAPIDS THIS EVENING DUE TO ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
CONVERGENCE CAN BE SEEN IN THE 02Z METARS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT
MBL AND CAD...WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW FURTHER SOUTH. COLDER AIR IS
ALSO EVIDENT INLAND AND BEHIND THIS SURFACE TROUGH WITH 32 AT CAD
AND 33 AT HTL.

HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS BETWEEN 04-09Z IN WESTERN COUNTIES
DUE TO DECENT LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER (MAINLY BELOW 5K FEET).
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH...BUT
AN ENHANCEMENT OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. STILL THOUGH...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO WARM SURFACES AND AIR TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING AS OF 0230Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE EAST WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA WHICH COULD BE CLIPPED BY THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP. THIS AREA COULD ALSO SEE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

FLOW GOES NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING
BLO 5 KFT...SO SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE. SNOW
SHOWERS COULD FLARE UP A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SAGS
SOUTH WITH SOME SFC CONVERGENCE HELPING THE CAUSE. THE FLOW GOES
MORE NORTHERLY ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE CONFINED CLOSE TO THE COAST.

SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE MOVING FURTHER INLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
FLOW STARTS TO GO MORE NORTHWEST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE STILL AOB
5 KFT...SO ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH CHCS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. WE WILL
THEN HAVE A CHC OF PCPN NEXT WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM EJECTS FROM
THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.

NO REAL CHANGE TO THE TUE THROUGH THU TIMEFRAME WITH AN ARCTIC AIR
MASS COMING IN ALONG WITH CHCS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY TUE. THIS WILL TRANSITION THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE NW
AND EVENTUALLY WEST. TEMPS AT H850 IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS C WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE LAKE EFFECT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT AS THE NRN STREAM OF THE JET REMAINS NORTH...LEADING TO
LO INVERSION HEIGHTS AND SHALLOW MOISTURE. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
WILL BE MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA TRYING TO HELP THE SNOW SHOWER
CHCS OUT.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN TO DEVELOP
IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WILL MISS MOST OF THE CWFA FOR NOW.
THE TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FOR THE PARALLEL GFS AND EURO TO
SLOW THE EJECTION OF THE SW ENERGY AS EXPECTED. THIS ALLOWS THE NRN
STREAM OF THE JET TO MOVE IN AND SHUNT THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE
SE. PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE MODELS TO RESOLVE THE INTERACTION OF THE
TWO BRANCHES. FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH A CHC OF SNOW AND FEATURE
COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO THE WARMER AND MORE WET SOLUTIONS OF THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

MVFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES AT 0430Z. THERE IS A BAND
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MOVING SOUTH NEAR I-96. THIS BAND ON SHOWERS
IS ASSOCIATED THE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA. IT IS FOLLOWED NICELY VIA
THE HRRR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS OF RUNS. I HAVE TEMPO IFR SNOW
SHOWERS AT GRR AND AZO FOR THIS BUT ONLY MVFR AT BTL. AFTER THAT
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TILL MORNING. DRY AIR SHOULD CLEAR THE
SKIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS CLEARING IS MOVING INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN NOW. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE CLOUDS AND MAYBE
SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL VEER WEST TO 30 KNOTS THIS EVENING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO
8 FEET NORTH OF HOLLAND AND 3 TO 5 FEET SOUTH OF HOLLAND. WEST
WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EBW
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...EBW






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 340 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...
THEN PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM SATURDAY...

SATELLITE CLOUD TRENDS SUPPORT EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AND SW... WITH CLOUDS
STEADILY THICKENING AND LOWERING OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXHIBITED WELL
BY A COMPARISON OF THE 00Z GSO SOUNDING WITH UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...
WITH DRY AIR NEAR 500 MB AND BELOW 700 MB AND A PW NEAR 0.6 IN AT
GSO... WHEREAS UPSTREAM LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE FFC AND BMX
SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH WETTER THROUGH THE COLUMN... WITH PW VALUES 1.0-
1.5 IN... OVER 200% OF NORMAL... WHICH IS POISED TO ADVECT INTO NC.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WAS OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL/SRN AL INTO CENTRAL
GA... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM... AND THIS IS ALSO
WHERE REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS EXPANSIVE RAIN -- SOME OF IT MODERATE --
SPREADING TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL NC... ALTHOUGH THE NE PROGRESSION OF
THIS RAIN IS HINDERED BY INITIAL EVAPORATION ON ITS NE EDGE.
NEVERTHELESS... RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA MAY SEE MEASURABLE RAIN FIRST... SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR AND
WRF-ARW RUNS. WE ALSO HAVE MUCH LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA (UPPER 30S) AS COMPARED TO THE SOUTHERN AND EXTREME ERN
CWA (LOW 40S)... AND THESE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL TAKE LONGER TO BE
OVERCOME. BASED ON THIS... HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE POPS
A BIT LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTH WITH A SMALL DOWNWARD TWEAK OF
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL... AND NO POPS NORTHEAST OF
RALEIGH OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF WHAT WILL INITIALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR IN
CENTRAL NC IS APT TO EVAPORATE PRIOR TO HITTING THE GROUND... BUT
STILL EXPECT A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE AMOUNTS TO SPREAD INTO THE
SW CWA SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT... THEN EXPAND INTO THE REST OF THE WRN
AND SRN CWA AFTER 3 AM. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT... A FUNCTION OF
THE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS ANTICIPATED EARLIER... TEMPS FELL
MOST SOON AFTER NIGHTFALL AND HAVE LEVELED OFF SOMEWHAT... AND THE
ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS WILL FURTHER BLANKET THE CWA OVERNIGHT...
LIMITING TEMP FALL. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S (NE) TO
UPPER 40S (WEST). -GIH


EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 255 PM: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NC/SC COAST ALONG
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA. A POSITIVELY TILTED DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS AT MIDDAY TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL SHEAR EAST INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE TROUGH IS SHARPER AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST REACHING THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS
FROM MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN TX AT MIDDAY TODAY WILL MOVE EAST
REACHING EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST GA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE BEGINS
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT... NAM/GFS/SREF BUFR SOUNDINGS ALL NOTE THAT
THE LOWER THIRD OF THE TROPOSPHERE IS SLOW TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT
UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 295K SURFACE WITH THE BEST SURGE OF LIFT
SKIRTING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF CENTRAL NC AND WILL
ADVERTISE LOW CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ADVERTISED FOR
THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. SO SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC IT WONT BE WASHOUT FOR EVERYONE.
MAINLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
RALEIGH WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED NEAR AND ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 85.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS THEY WILL TEND TO FALL
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET BUT THE OVERNIGHT TREND WILL BE
COMPLICATED BY THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY STIRRING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE COMPLICATED BY TE PRECIPITATION WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THE RAIN WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A STOUT DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL APPROACH IN THE SW FLOW LATE SUNDAY AND CROSS OUR REGION
EARLY MONDAY. MEANWHILE CENTRAL NC WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 130-150KT JET. THE ENHANCED LIFT SUPPLIED BY BOTH THE
JET AND THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH AN ABNORMALLY
MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES PROJECTED TO BE 1-1.2 INCHES)
WILL CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 50S FAR SOUTH.

MONDAY... WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY
MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND THE JET
DEPART OUR REGION. WHILE THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DRY OUT...SW FLOW IN THE 925-850MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN SATURATION
RESULTING IN OVERCAST SKIES WITH SPOTS OF RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE PULLS OUT TO THE EAST-NE. A SHALLOW COLD AIR AIR
MASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
FALLING TEMPS BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...850MB TROUGH PROJECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF
OUR REGION UNTIL MID DAY TUESDAY. THIS SUGGEST A CONTINUATION IN
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF MONDAY NIGHT. PASSAGE OF 850MB TROUGH AND ENSUING W-NW
FLOW IN ITS WAKE ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE WILL AID TO DISSIPATE CLOUD
COVERAGE WEST-TO-EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A SMALLER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP
RECOVERY. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MAX
TEMPS TUESDAY MID 40S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SUNDAY...

TUE: A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WA THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DEAMPLIFY FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED GLANCING BLOW OF THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING
FOR ASCENT...WILL PRODUCED RENEWED LIFT ATOP A STILL-SATURATED LAYER
IN ROUGHLY THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FT --DEEPEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER/IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT OVER
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC-- SUCH THAT OTHERWISE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH
EARLY TUE WILL BECOME LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS.
BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NW 925-850 MB FLOW WILL
PROMOTE BOTH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A DISSIPATION OF THE CAD INVERSION
VIA CAA - BOTH MECHANISMS THAT SHOULD SERVE TO SCOUR THE CAD REGIME
AND PROMOTE CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE TIMING OF THIS
PROCESS REMAINS IN QUESTION OWING TO TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST NWP
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL SLOWER TREND EVIDENT IN THE GUIDANCE. AS
SUCH...WILL FAVOR A SLOWER CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST SUCH
THAT TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO RESPOND TO THE
SETTING AFTERNOON SUN...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. IF A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SUN DOES MATERIALIZE...
MOST LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WOULD RESPOND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S.

TUE NIGHT-SAT: STRONG...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WILL OTHERWISE SPRAWL EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST STATES...THROUGH THU...BENEATH GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN CONFLUENT BRANCHES OF THE UPPER JET...BEFORE DRIFTING
OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN EJECTING DESERT SW (BRIEFLY) CUTOFF LOW FRI-
SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE COOL CONDITIONS --MOST NOTABLY WED AND THU
MORNINGS WHEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP WELL INTO THE 20S (WITH UPPER
TEENS POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE CALM) GIVEN
PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1290-1300 METER RANGE.
IT WILL ALSO BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY SO DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A STRONGLY-SHEARED AND POSITIVELY-TILTED TRAILING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DURING THE DAY WED.

WHILE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE EJECTION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED DESERT SW LOW AND ASSOCIATED APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM...THE OVERALL PATTERN (WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES TO BE
WORKED OUT) WOULD RESULT IN A LOW TRACK TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC AND
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE IN RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING AND MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH --TIMING MOST LIKELY FRI NIGHT-
SAT FAVORED (DUE TO TYPICAL FAST BIAS IN NWP WITH SW CUTOFFS) AS
DEPICTED BY THE SLOWER EC AND EC MEAN. IF SHOWERS OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...MOST LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...
AN IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT WOULD EVOLVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND...IN A PATTERN OTHERWISE SUPPORTIVE OF WARMING TEMPERATURES
OVER THE SE CONUS. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ON SAT ARE APT TO DISPLAY
A WIDER THAN AVG RANGE OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH MARKEDLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NW PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC TODAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA...THERE REMAIN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL AND
HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL DROP.  WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z...CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10K FT.
BETTER MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE STEADY RAIN AND
CEILINGS IN THE MVFR OR IFR RANGE IN THE 12Z TO 21Z TIME FRAME.  TO
THE EAST...WHERE SUPPORT FOR PRECIP IS WEAKER...CONFIDENCE IN MVFR
CEILINGS IS LOWER...AND SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS MAY REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MIDDAY FROM KRDU EASTWARD.

EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO THEN BE INTERMITTENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS A LULL DEVELOPS...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BEFORE
A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT.  WINDS
WILL BE 5-10KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...TURNING TO NORTHWESTERLY
AND THEN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP MONDAY AS STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ATOP THE SOUTHWARD SINKING COLD FRONT LEADS TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN.  THESE LOW CEILINGS...ALONG WITH SOME PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TUESDAY

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BLAES
SHORT TERM....WSS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 115 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...
THEN PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM SATURDAY...

SATELLITE CLOUD TRENDS SUPPORT EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AND SW... WITH CLOUDS
STEADILY THICKENING AND LOWERING OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXHIBITED WELL
BY A COMPARISON OF THE 00Z GSO SOUNDING WITH UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...
WITH DRY AIR NEAR 500 MB AND BELOW 700 MB AND A PW NEAR 0.6 IN AT
GSO... WHEREAS UPSTREAM LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE FFC AND BMX
SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH WETTER THROUGH THE COLUMN... WITH PW VALUES 1.0-
1.5 IN... OVER 200% OF NORMAL... WHICH IS POISED TO ADVECT INTO NC.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WAS OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL/SRN AL INTO CENTRAL
GA... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM... AND THIS IS ALSO
WHERE REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS EXPANSIVE RAIN -- SOME OF IT MODERATE --
SPREADING TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL NC... ALTHOUGH THE NE PROGRESSION OF
THIS RAIN IS HINDERED BY INITIAL EVAPORATION ON ITS NE EDGE.
NEVERTHELESS... RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA MAY SEE MEASURABLE RAIN FIRST... SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR AND
WRF-ARW RUNS. WE ALSO HAVE MUCH LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA (UPPER 30S) AS COMPARED TO THE SOUTHERN AND EXTREME ERN
CWA (LOW 40S)... AND THESE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL TAKE LONGER TO BE
OVERCOME. BASED ON THIS... HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE POPS
A BIT LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTH WITH A SMALL DOWNWARD TWEAK OF
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL... AND NO POPS NORTHEAST OF
RALEIGH OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF WHAT WILL INITIALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR IN
CENTRAL NC IS APT TO EVAPORATE PRIOR TO HITTING THE GROUND... BUT
STILL EXPECT A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE AMOUNTS TO SPREAD INTO THE
SW CWA SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT... THEN EXPAND INTO THE REST OF THE WRN
AND SRN CWA AFTER 3 AM. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT... A FUNCTION OF
THE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS ANTICIPATED EARLIER... TEMPS FELL
MOST SOON AFTER NIGHTFALL AND HAVE LEVELED OFF SOMEWHAT... AND THE
ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS WILL FURTHER BLANKET THE CWA OVERNIGHT...
LIMITING TEMP FALL. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S (NE) TO
UPPER 40S (WEST). -GIH


EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 255 PM: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NC/SC COAST ALONG
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA. A POSITIVELY TILTED DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS AT MIDDAY TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL SHEAR EAST INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE TROUGH IS SHARPER AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST REACHING THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS
FROM MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN TX AT MIDDAY TODAY WILL MOVE EAST
REACHING EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST GA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE BEGINS
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT... NAM/GFS/SREF BUFR SOUNDINGS ALL NOTE THAT
THE LOWER THIRD OF THE TROPOSPHERE IS SLOW TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT
UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 295K SURFACE WITH THE BEST SURGE OF LIFT
SKIRTING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF CENTRAL NC AND WILL
ADVERTISE LOW CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ADVERTISED FOR
THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. SO SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC IT WONT BE WASHOUT FOR EVERYONE.
MAINLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
RALEIGH WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED NEAR AND ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 85.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS THEY WILL TEND TO FALL
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET BUT THE OVERNIGHT TREND WILL BE
COMPLICATED BY THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY STIRRING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE COMPLICATED BY TE PRECIPITATION WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THE RAIN WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A STOUT DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL APPROACH IN THE SW FLOW LATE SUNDAY AND CROSS OUR REGION
EARLY MONDAY. MEANWHILE CENTRAL NC WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 130-150KT JET. THE ENHANCED LIFT SUPPLIED BY BOTH THE
JET AND THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH AN ABNORMALLY
MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES PROJECTED TO BE 1-1.2 INCHES)
WILL CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 50S FAR SOUTH.

MONDAY... WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY
MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND THE JET
DEPART OUR REGION. WHILE THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DRY OUT...SW FLOW IN THE 925-850MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN SATURATION
RESULTING IN OVERCAST SKIES WITH SPOTS OF RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE PULLS OUT TO THE EAST-NE. A SHALLOW COLD AIR AIR
MASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
FALLING TEMPS BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...850MB TROUGH PROJECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF
OUR REGION UNTIL MID DAY TUESDAY. THIS SUGGEST A CONTINUATION IN
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF MONDAY NIGHT. PASSAGE OF 850MB TROUGH AND ENSUING W-NW
FLOW IN ITS WAKE ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE WILL AID TO DISSIPATE CLOUD
COVERAGE WEST-TO-EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A SMALLER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP
RECOVERY. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MAX
TEMPS TUESDAY MID 40S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER
THE BULK OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
PROJECTED TO EDGE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SW U.S-SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
MODEL GUIDANCE TRADITIONALLY HAVE TROUBLE TIMING THE MOVEMENT OF
THESE CLOSED LOWS INT EH SW. USUALLY...SLOWER IS BETTER.

FOR CENTRAL NC...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AT MID
WEEK...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND. A S/W WILL
CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED
BY A DRY SFC FRONT PASSAGE. FLOW BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL REINFORCE
THE COOL AIR IN PLACE. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 4-6 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S WILL BE
COMMON.

TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BY NEXT WEEKEND PLAY HAVOC WITH
PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMP FORECAST. PERSISTENT WLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO
MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS...LEADING TO TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
IF PRECIP DELAYED UNTIL LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL
FOR TEMPS TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC TODAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA...THERE REMAIN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL AND
HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL DROP.  WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z...CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10K FT.
BETTER MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE STEADY RAIN AND
CEILINGS IN THE MVFR OR IFR RANGE IN THE 12Z TO 21Z TIME FRAME.  TO
THE EAST...WHERE SUPPORT FOR PRECIP IS WEAKER...CONFIDENCE IN MVFR
CEILINGS IS LOWER...AND SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS MAY REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MIDDAY FROM KRDU EASTWARD.

EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO THEN BE INTERMITTENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS A LULL DEVELOPS...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BEFORE
A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT.  WINDS
WILL BE 5-10KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...TURNING TO NORTHWESTERLY
AND THEN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP MONDAY AS STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ATOP THE SOUTHWARD SINKING COLD FRONT LEADS TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN.  THESE LOW CEILINGS...ALONG WITH SOME PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TUESDAY

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BLAES
SHORT TERM....WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BLS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 348 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS THE MORNING. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE COLD
CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRACKING SEVERAL BANDS OF FAST MOVING SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY
ACROSS W AND N CWA AT 0830Z. IN GENERAL THE SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED
AS THEY ADVANCE EAST. MOST ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS ENTERING WEST
COUNTIES RIGHT NOW. HRRR WEAKENS THIS BAND AS IT MOVES DEEPER
INTO THE CWA...THOUGH EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO PICK UP SOME
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR ALSO ACCOMPANYING
THESE SHOWERS AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE FALLING OR STEADY
TEMPERATURES TODAY. SHOWERS WILL MIX AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BAND SLOW SHIFTS SOUTH OF CWA THIS EVENING WITH ORGANIZED
SHOWERS WANING. SHOWERS ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD
AIR MAY ARRIVE TO RESULT IN SNOW BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. QUIET WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLER THEN PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR LATE DEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...A WAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. MORE CONFIDENCE THAT IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA MON NIGHT AND
TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK
AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WAVES OF COLDER AIR DIVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK
OF DECEMBER. COOLER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA AS WE RING IN THE NEW YEAR.

GEFS AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF
2015 DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND. STORM TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK WEST OF PA BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF MILD AIR BACK INTO THE STATE WITH RAIN THE LIKELY DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN
THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ALMOST A WEEK OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. SFC MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS LIGHT PRECIP MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE BROUGHT A LOWERING
OF VISBYS AND CIGS TO BFD CURRENTLY...AND IFR CIGS/VIS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TO PERHAPS
AOO/UNV/IPT AND JST. BFD WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE SNOW MIX IN OR
A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AND THEREFORE THE ATTENDANT LOWER VISBYS
AROUND SUNRISE/12Z. JST MAY LOWER TO LIFR AS WELL...MAINLY DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE...BUT ALSO IF THE PRECIP TURNS TO SNOW
THERE IN THE MORNING.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THRU HALF OF THE REGION BY 12Z...BUT IT WILL
TAKE THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT FOR IT TO CLEAR THE SE. LOWER CLOUDS
WILL HANG ON THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT VFR MAY RETURN BY 00Z/29TH -
IN THE NORTH FIRST THEN CLEARING SPREADS TO THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT
PRESSES SLOWLY SOUTH THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC - EVENTUALLY STALLING
OUT THERE.

OUTLOOK...

MON-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS/HAGNER
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 1250 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SMALL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD
FRONT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES OUR REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH
MONDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION IN THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL GET ORGANIZED
OVER TEXAS AND REACH OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM...PLENTY OF LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE STILL TO BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THUS FAR VERY LITTLE RAIN
HAS FALLEN AS HYDROMETEORS ARE FALLING INTO A NEAR-SURFACE AIR MASS
THAT REMAINS QUITE DRY. HOWEVER...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS
OVERSPREADING NORTH GEORGIA FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO
SATURATE THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH LIKELY POPS EAST.

AS OF 920 PM...LATEST RADAR IMAGES FROM KGSP INDICATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LAKELANDS OF SC. UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
GA...COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN WAS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
AL/GA LINE. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED BKN TO OVC MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. THE THICK CLOUD COVER HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED
TO KEEPING TEMPS ONE TO TWO DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS TO RECENT RADAR
TRENDS...INCREASE SKY COVER...AND WARM HRLY TEMPS TO OBS.

AS OF 710 PM...I WILL UPDATE TO FINE TUNE CLOUDS....TEMPS...AND
POPS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOIST SOUTHWEST LLVL
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW IN INCREASING
LLVL LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND LOW
CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE.

AS OF 515 PM...LIGHT AND HIGH RADAR RETURNS WERE TRACKING ACROSS NRN
GA. THESE RETURNS HAVE NOT BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SFC OBS OF
RAIN...EXPECTING RETURNS FROM VIRGA. HOWEVER...A LARGE PATCH OF
LIGHT RAIN WAS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AL/GA LINE...THIS AREA SHOULD
RESULT IN RAIN ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. I WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST
POP TIMING AND ALIGN TEMP/DWPT WITH OBSERVATIONS.

AS OF 240 PM EST SATURDAY...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A DEEP
AND MOIST WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DOWN TO THE WESTERN GULF...AND TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH BROAD
AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS AN EASTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
US...MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE PIEDMONT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUN AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP INTO
THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF LIFTS NE ACROSS
AL/MI TONIGHT. THEREFORE...POPS QUICKLY RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST
INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER THE WESTERN MTNS ZONES AND NE
GA...WITH LIKELY RANGE OVER THE REST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THE BEST RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 12Z-18Z SUN WHEN THE
SURFACE WAVE OF LOW LIFTS NE ACROSS THE CWA AND A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLES ACROSS THE MTNS ZONES IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
ALSO...HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
EARLY SUN AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF 100-200J/KG MUCAPE PER
LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF. POPS RAMP DOWN TO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER THE
MTN ZONES AND SOLD CHANCE RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE REGION
18Z THRU 00Z MON AS THE UPPER FORCING AND THE SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE NE. WITH MODELS TRENDING A BIT WETTER FOR THE
UPCOMING EVENT...HAVE GONE WITH THE HPC QPF GUIDANCE RESULTING IN
0.75-1.0" OVER THE WESTERN NC MTNS AND NE GA... WITH AROUND
0.25-0.5" ELSEWHERE THRU SUN EVENING.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW...OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL STAY 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH ONGOING
PRECIP...AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE AROUND 3-5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE IN A LULL
OF SORTS AT THE START OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING...AS
WE WILL BE IN A MINIMUM OF FORCING. THAT CHANGES QUICKLY BY LATE
EVENING AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET TRANSLATES
OVERHEAD BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND 09Z...AND THE MAIN SHORT WAVE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH IN THE 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY TIME FRAME. ALTHO THE WAVE
SHEARS AND DEAMPLIFIES AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...THE FORCING SHOULD
STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE PRECIP PRODUCTION...COMBINED WITH
IMPROVED MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT. SO...PRECIP CHANCES RAMP BACK UP TO
CATEGORICAL MAINLY OVER THE AREA ALONG AND N/W OF I-85...AND LIKELY
TO THE S...BY 06Z OR SO. THE MAIN FORCING SHOULD SHIFT E OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PRECIP PROBABILITY WILL BE OVER THE WRN
NC PIEDMONT ON MONDAY MORNING. POP WAS LIMITED TO LIKELY OUT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF THE FORCING...BUT COULD
EASILY HAVE TO BE KEPT CATEGORICAL BEYOND 12Z MONDAY WITH THE
SLIGHTEST DELAY. THE REST OF MONDAY WILL HAVE A SLOW RAMP DOWN
THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE AS FORCING GRADUALLY WEAKENS BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT THAT CROSSES FIRST THING IN THE DAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT/CHANCE OF
PRECIP. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW COMES AROUND TO SOMETHING NW MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE TN
BORDER. THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY OFF TO OUR N...WHICH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
BLEEDS DOWN INTO NC. PREFER TO KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NRN MTNS AND TO KEEP THE AREA E OF THE BLUE
RIDGE DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY.


ON SUNDAY THE FAIRLY BROAD FRONTAL ZONE WILL
EXTEND FROM QUEBEC SWWD TO THE WRN GULF COAST...BISECTING THE TENN
VALLEY JUST TO OUR WEST. AT LEAST ONE WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO RIDE
UP THE FRONT DURING THE DAY AS A RESULT OF CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW OVER
THE BOUNDARY CONTAINING EMBEDDED WEAK VORTICES. THOUGH SUCH A WAVE
WOULD LIKELY PROVIDE LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO LLVL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE EXISTENCE OF ONE IS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE
POOR AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE ON HOW THIS OCCURS.
OVERALL THE FORCING SUNDAY IS JUST NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. LITTLE
TO NO INSTABILITY IS PROGGED OVER THE CWFA AND THOUGH A GOOD SLUG OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PRESENT ON NAM/GFS PROGS THE LLVL LIFT IS
LIMITED. AT ANY RATE...THRU SUNDAY THE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ACRS THE SOUTHEAST...THE PARENT LOW CONTINUING TO
PROGRESS EWD WITH THE ACTIVE NRN STREAM WHILE THE BROAD SRN STREAM
TROUGH IS HELD OFF BY THE BERMUDA HIGH. IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL
NOT ACTUALLY ENTER THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY MRNG...WITH A DISTINCT
500MB SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT AS WELL AS UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOC
WITH RR QUAD OF A JET STREAK.

TWO PEAKS OF PRECIP ACTIVITY ARE SUGGESTED WHEN THE TOTAL FORCING IS
MAXIMIZED...SUNDAY MRNG AND THEN EARLY MON MRNG. HOWEVER IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A POINT BETWEEN WHERE A LULL SHOULD BE
BETWEEN...WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINING FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY...BUT CONCENTRATING MORE QPF CLOSE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED PEAKS. DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN...IN THE WARM AIRMASS
TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT 5-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUN AFTN...WITH MINS
MON MRNG BEING EVEN MORE ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. MAX
TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY OVER THE PIEDMONT
WITH THE FRONT NOT YET HAVING AN IMPACT.

PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS STILL PRETTY SLOW THRU MON
NIGHT...WITH THE CWFA NEAR THE INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE PLAINS
TROUGH AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. POPS DECLINE ONLY GRADUALLY THRU THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME QPF
CONTINUING ON THE BACK SIDE OF ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING NEAR
THE GA/SC COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ALL AREAS ON THE
ENSUING NLY FLOW MON NIGHT...THOUGH MIN TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH SPLIT
UPPER LVL FLOW...WITH A LARGE POLAR VORTEX SPINNING OVR HUDSON
BAY...AND A CUTOFF LOW INVOF CALIFORNIA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SLOWLY CONVERGING ON THE TIMING OF THE CUTOFF LOW BEING EJECT ACRS
INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THAT...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
FASTER/EARLIER...AND THE ECMWF SLOWER/DEEPER. THE LATEST WPC
PREFERENCE IS WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND NOT
AS DEEP WITH THE RESULTED PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROF AS THE ECMWF.
AT THE SFC...A BROAD AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL ENCOMPASS ABOUT
3/4TH OF THE CONUS ON WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY MODIFYING AND DRIFTING
EAST WITH THE CENTER CROSSING THE CWFA EARLY FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS THE EJECTING UPPER TROF FINALLY ENTERS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...A LOW PRES SYSTEM SHUD BEGIN TO ORGANIZE...TAPPING INTO
COPIOUS GULF MOISTURE. POPS WILL THEN RAMP UP BY NEXT WEEKEND. OF
COURSE...EXACT TIMING IS STILL THE MAIN QUESTION. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOW POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS AT ONSET
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THEN TURNING OVER TO ALL RAIN...AS STRONG SWLY
WAA SHUD DOMINATE ANY LINGERING IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL SEE LOWERING
CIGS...WITH LOW VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...AND INCREASING
CHANCES FOR -RA. ONCE THE -RA OVERSPREADS THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING...SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING BY MID-MORNING...WITH IFR EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL THEN BE SLOW TO IMPROVE...BUT WE MAY SEE BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR BY SUNDAY EVENING...JUST IN TIME FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF -RA TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SW...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY GO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
AFTER THE PRECIP SETS IN LATER THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...-RA WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS. CIGS SHOULD ALSO LOWER DURING THAT WINDOW...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK. PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISBY WILL ALSO BECOME MORE LIKELY BY THAT TIME. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT KAND AND KAVL PRIOR TO 12Z...AND
TEMPOS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...CIGS
SHOULD REDUCE TO IFR OR EVEN LOWER BY MID-MORNING AT MOST TERMINALS.
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW...BUT WE MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN VFR
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY EVENING...JUST IN TIME FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF -RA
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER FROM
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
OCCURS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN BY MID-
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     LOW   52%     LOW   59%     LOW   56%
KAVL       MED   66%     LOW   52%     LOW   55%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   68%     LOW   50%     LOW   48%
KGMU       HIGH  96%     LOW   59%     MED   60%     MED   60%
KAND       HIGH  85%     HIGH  93%     LOW   52%     MED   70%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JDL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 1125 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO CONTINUE PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID STATE TONIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE...BOTH IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND
THE TROUGH...WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
TAF PD. AS A RESULT...LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST. RAINFALL
COVERAGE WILL LET UP AFT 18Z. BY 00Z SHOULD JUST BE LOOKING AT
VCSH ACROSS THE BNA AND CKV AREAS. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THE TAF PD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING WESTERN MIDDLE TN AT THIS TIME. A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE IS NOTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR INFORMATION
BOTH SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL FILL IN ALONG AND WEST OF
THE ADVANCING TROUGH. A CLOSER LOOK DOES REVEAL SOME APPRECIABLE
SEPARATION IN REGARD TO THE 850 MB AND SFC FRONT.
FURTHERMORE...THE GREATER LOW LEVEL FORCING RESIDES ALONG THE 850
MB FRONT WHERE THE ANGULAR CONVERGENCE IS GREATER.

FOR THE FCST...DESPITE THE CURRENT DECREASE IN COVERAGE...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS AS WAS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE
COVERAGE SHOULD FILL BACK IN.

NO CHANGES FOR NOW TO THE FCST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE
TONIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE...BOTH IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE TAF
PD. AS A RESULT...LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST. RAINFALL
COVERAGE WILL LET UP SOME AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE TAF
PD...BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER
COVERAGE STRETCHING FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE BACK TO THE LOUISIANA-
TEXAS BORDER...AND SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST. THESE SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH AS IT
APPROACHES THE MID-STATE WILL BECOME ALIGNED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. LIGHTNING COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED...AND WITH FORECAST
MODELS SHOWING LAPS RATES BELOW 6 DEGREES HAVE REMOVED IT FROM
THE FORECAST. AFTER THE STEADY RAIN MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RETURN...WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM THE LOUISIANA- TEXAS BORDER TO
NORTH CAROLINA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BETTER MOISTURE AXIS AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WHILE MINIMAL...FAVOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL JUST HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY EVEN BE COMPLETELY DRY.
THIS SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL BRING STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 TO AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND A HALF BY MONDAY MORNING.

A SECONDARY FRONT WITH MUCH MORE NOTABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES
THROUGH THE MID-STATE WEDNESDAY...AND LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE LONG-RANGE MODELS INDICATE A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND TRACKING THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE WARM FRONT SURGE OUT
AHEAD OF IT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD AIR IN PLACE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...EVEN A
PERIOD OF SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. BY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY PER THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      45  45  36  49 / 100  80  70  10
CLARKSVILLE    41  42  33  47 / 100  60  20  10
CROSSVILLE     47  51  40  49 / 100 100  90  20
COLUMBIA       46  47  37  51 / 100  80  70  10
LAWRENCEBURG   47  49  37  51 / 100  80  90  10
WAVERLY        42  43  33  48 / 100  80  50  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX

 1022 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Light rain and snow will continue through the overnight hours for
parts of the area primarily affecting FST.  Ceilings will gradually
get lower throughout the night and be at the lowest from 12z to 15z,
but ceilings are expected to improve by 18z Sunday.  Winds will be
light and variable overnight and will shift to the southwest by the
afternoon with some possible gusts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014/

UPDATE...

Update on the status of the Winter Storm Warning for the Davis
and Apache Mountains, Marfa and Alpine areas and Winter Weather
Advisory for western Pecos County.

DISCUSSION...

IR satellite imagery was showing cloud tops cooling over southwest
Texas this evening ahead of a shortwave trough over Mexico.  At
28/0245Z, radar returns were showing bands of precipitation
streaking northeastward over the Warning and Advisory areas.  A
few calls to Marfa, Alpine and Fort Davis yielded reports of snow
falling in those areas, with near 1" of accumulation 7 WNW of
Alpine as of 28/0130Z and snow beginning to stick in Alpine at
28/02Z, with the same in Fort Davis.

The latest NAM is trickling in, and indicates snow will continue
to fall over southwest Texas tonight.  Since 4 to 6 inches of
snow are still possible in these areas, the Winter Storm Warning
will remain in effect until 28/09Z.  Further, north and east there
is a dry layer in the low to mid levels so precipitation will have
to moisten this layer for appreciable precipitation to hit the
ground.  When it does later tonight, surface temperatures are a
little warmer and snow accumulations should only be 1 to 2 inches
in western Pecos County.  Therefore, the Winter Weather Advisory
will continue. Think precipitation will be too light any further
northward or eastward for any expansion of the Winter Weather
Advisory.  Will continue to monitor.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Current observations continue to show intermittent light snow
continuing over portions of southeast New Mexico and the western
Permian Basin. Significant snows have ended over the Guadalupe
Mountains and across Lea County New Mexico.  The HRRR and other
models suggest that lingering precipitation over these northern
areas will continue to wane while redevelopment will occur over the
higher elevations of SW Texas beginning later this afternoon into
evening.

While indications are that the positive tilt upper trough is
weakening/filling as it moves across the area, which is a negative
against significant snow, current QFP for this evening and BUFKIT
sounding interrogation suggests that snow redevelopment is
likely...especially over the higher elevations of SW Texas.  The
Marfa Plateau and the Davis Mountains could see significant snowfall
tonight.  The western half of Pecos county could also see some minor
snow accumulations.  For now, will issue a winter storm warning for
heavy snow for higher elevations of Presidio, Jeff Davis, and
Brewster County.  A winter weather advisory will be issued for Pecos
County.  Both the warning and advisory will be extended into the
overnight period.  However, most of the activity will probably occur
this evening.

As this upper trough rapidly exits the area tomorrow morning, zonal
upper flow is expected.  Surface lee trough development just east of
the Rockies will result in a quick warmup for our area tomorrow and
Monday.  However, a significant cool down is forecast for later
Monday into Tuesday.  The big question for now is what type of
precipitation will fall next week.  With shallow cold air in place
and an expected elevated warm later, indications are that freezing
drizzle will the predominant precipitation type most of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Pecos.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 3 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

99

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 1216 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
BEFORE SPILLING SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING WILL BRING PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TODAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 830 PM EST SATURDAY...

CLOUDS HAVE QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH A LEAD FAINT MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN PIECES
OF SOUTHERN STREAM SUPPORT TO THE SW. HOWEVER MOSTLY OF THE MID
DECK VARIETY WITH ANY -RA OR SPRINKLES CONFINED JUST WEST OF THE
CWA CLOSER TO THE UPSTREAM FRONT/JET. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME
INTERMITTENT -RA PERHAPS MAKING IT TO THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT WITHOUT MUCH ORGANIZATION GIVEN LINGERING DRY AIR
ALOFT PER EVENING SOUNDINGS...AND BEST LIFT WEST-NW OF THE REGION
UNTIL DAYBREAK. THUS SLOWED DOWN MAIN CORRIDOR OF POPS A BIT MORE
OVERNIGHT AS MAY BE DURING SUNDAY BEFORE BETTER COVERAGE ARRIVES
AS SEEN VIA THE LATEST NAM. OTHER CONCERN WITH LOW TEMPS AS THE
CURRENT CLOUD CANOPY HAS TENDED TO STOP FALLS FOR THE MOMENT WITH
MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE 50S. IR PICS DO SHOW SOME BREAKS
HEADING THIS WAY OUT OF TN SO STILL SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME
SPOTS SNEAK BACK DOWN GIVEN DRY AIR. HOWEVER APPEARS EVEN WITH
SOME ADDED COOLING BY LATE RAINFALL THAT WILL NEED TO RAISE LOWS
A CAT OR TWO MOST SPOTS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 340 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE AFTERNOON MILD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY RESULT IN SOME MILD TEMPS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THICKEST SOONER. IN THE EAST...CLOUDS WILL NOT THICKEN UP UNTIL
SOME LATE AFT/EARLY EVENING RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO MAY END UP
BEING COOLER IN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT THERE THAN IN MTNS. WENT
WITH OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS...AND WITH COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN EAST.

OTHERWISE...MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS TIMING OF PRECIP HEADED
NORTHEAST OUT OF GULF COAST AREA WITH SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DOWN THERE NOW ACTING IN SOME WAY TO ROB SOME
OF THE MOISTURE...AS WELL AS VERY DRY AIRMASS WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN
PLACE THAT COULD HELP SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL. MODEL TRENDS...AND HIGH
RES CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING VERSIONS...NOW HOLD PRECIP OFF UNTIL MAYBE
JUST BEFORE 12Z IN FAR SW AND FAR WEST PART OF AREA. SO LOWERED
POPS SLIGHTLY...MAINLY FROM 06-12Z TIME FRAME....AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST PART OF AREA WHERE IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT NO PRECIP
WILL REACH PAST ROANOKE BEFORE THEN. WHATEVER DOES REACH FAR SW BY
EARLY MORNING WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...MAIN BAND OF STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LEANING TOWARD NAM/ECWMF/SREF
IDEA THAT BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM BLUE RIDGE WEST...WITH MORE
SCATTERED LIGHTER PRECIP INITIALLY IN PIEDMONT...ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS
WOULD DISAGREE. THEN THIS WAVE MOVES OUT BY LATER AFTERNOON BUT
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE KEEPING HIGH POPS IN WEST AND REDUCED TO
CHANCE IN PIEDMONT FOR LATE IN DAY INTO EARLY EVENING.

NEXT WAVE THEN ARRIVES ALONG BOUNDARY BY EVENING...AND THIS ZONE
OF STEADIER RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO TAKE A TRACK A LITTLE MORE
TO SOUTH OF FIRST ONE...WITH FOOTHILLS TO PIEDMONT GETTING MOST OF
THE MODERATE RAINFALL. OTHER THAN GFS...SEEING SOME TRENDS OVER
LOWERING AMOUNTS WITH THIS...WHICH IS PARTLY REFLECTIVE OF
WEAKENING UPPER WAVE BEING STRETCHED WITH TIME AS WELL AS SOME
MOISTURE STEALING FROM CONVECTION WELL TO SOUTH. NOT LOOKING AT
NEARLY ENOUGH RAINFALL FOR ANY PROBLEMS. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THAT.

TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE MILD...ALTHOUGH SOME COOLER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO WESTERN APPALACHIAN SLOPES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY SNOW...EVEN AT HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE LAST WAVE IN THE SERIES ALONG A SLOW-MOVING CLOD FRONT SHOULD BE
EXITING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM EARLY MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH POPS SLOWLY DIMINISHING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
SLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SO HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOUNCE
BACK SOME FROM MORNING LOWS AND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM UPPER 30S
NW TO UPPER 40S SE UNDER STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER THE INCREASING
SOUTHWARD SPILL OF COLDER AIR AND MAY CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST CWA BY EVENING MONDAY
AND HAVE INTRODUCED VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS..LESS THAN 1 INCH
IN THOSE COLDER AREAS...MAINLY GREENBRIER AND BATH COUNTIES. COLDER
AIR EMANATING FROM THE MASSIVE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS WILL OOZE EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY AS H85 TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY
TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO SLIP INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY..RANGING FROM L/M 30S WEST TO MID-40S
SE...ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE DECEMBER CLIMO. WEDNESDAY
MORNING LOWS FALL BACK CLOSE TO ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEAR 20F NW TO UPPER 20S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM EST SATURDAY...

LONG RANGE MODELS...AT LEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH FAIR CONTINUITY AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE NEW
YEAR. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN
CANADA...SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO A CUTOFF AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
BE POSITIONED OFF THE PAC NW COAST. THIS PATTERN FAVORS COLD
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES (CONUS) AND SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS...AND MILDER AIR
CONFINED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CONUS...I.E. FLORIDA. FOR THE
MID ATLANTIC WE WILL LIKELY END UP IN THE TRANSITION ZONE...OR
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. WORST CASE...WE MAY
END UP 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL FOR NEW YEARS DAY...BUT
NOTHING EXTREME.

AFTER THURSDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED SINCE
THEY DO NOT HANDLE CUTOFF LOWS VERY WELL...AND ESPECIALLY THOSE
THAT EJECT FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE EVOLVING MEAN
PATTERN THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE UPPER LOW
WHICH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSES OFF OVER/NEAR CA/AZ INITIALLY BUT THEN
DIVERGE ON WHEN THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST DURING THE FRIDAY
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE
SPREAD REGARDING THE TIMING AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER DEGREE TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS 12-24 HOURS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH MAKES A DIFFERENCE IN WHETHER IT
PRECIPITATES HERE ON FRIDAY VS SATURDAY. THIS HIGH SPREAD/LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FAVORS AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE FORECAST REFLECTING A BLEND...WITH CHC
PRECIP BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE GREATEST POPS FAVORING
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS OVERLAP. TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO DETERMINE P-TYPE. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE BORDERLINE CRITICAL FRIDAY...SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME
WINTRY MIX IF PRECIP ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING. IF ONSET HOLDS OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY...THE P-TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST SATURDAY...

VFR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS IN SPOTS
OVER THE WEST WHERE HAVE SEEN A FEW SPRINKLES. STILL EXPECTING
OVERALL CIGS TO REMAIN IN THE 4-6K FT RANGE UNDER AREAS OF MID
DECK OVERNIGHT SO APPEARS WILL STAY MAINLY VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS
FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS.

DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
INITIAL WAVE WILL PUSH NE INTO THE SE WEST VA SITES AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO BE FOLLOWED BY
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE AT KBLF/KLWB JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE IF NOT A BIT SOONER...BUT MAINLY LIGHT...THUS OVERALL VFR
VSBYS IN ANY PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY. FIRST WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
ALSO SCOOT ACROSS SUNDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
THE SPOTTY COVERAGE FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST...AND MVFR OVER THE
WEST ESPCLY KBLF/KLWB. APPEARS THIS WILL MAINLY GO TO MOISTEN THE
COLUMN BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADIER RAIN ARRIVES OVER THE FAR
WEST/NW IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN IT APPEARS THAT CIGS/VSBYS
WILL DETERIORATE QUICKER PENDING HOW FAST THINGS BECOME SATURATED
IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL RAINFALL. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN IN THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME ESPCLY SE WEST VA SITES WHERE LIKELY
WITHIN STEADIER RAINFALL...AND BLUE RIDGE LOCATIONS GIVEN SOMEWHAT
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STILL WONT GO AS LOW AS THE LATEST NAM
IN SHOWING WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR AT ALL SITES BY LATE IN THE DAY OR
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER TRENDING INTO SOLID IFR WEST...MIX OF
MVFR/OCNL IFR BLUE RIDGE INCLUDING KBCB/KROA...AND MAINLY MVFR AT
KDAN/KLYH PENDING DEGREE OF PRECIP THEY SEE SUNDAY MORNING.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE BOUNDARY BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST TIME TO SEE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS
AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCLUDING PERHAPS KLWB THAT
MAY STAY WITH ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS JUST NORTH OF THE MAIN PRECIP
SHIELD. OTRW EXPECTING PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS...-RA AS WELL AS
DRIZZLE/FOG TO COVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY
SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT GIVEN LOW
LEVEL NE FLOW.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT DRIFTS OFF TO THE SE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE
LEAVING PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN STAYING SUB-VFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE FOG/DRIZZLE
AROUND OVERNIGHT. SLOW DRYING TO TAKE SHAPE ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER MAY
TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN SITES TO RETURN TO VFR WHILE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS COULD CAUSE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST OVER THE
WEST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR WINTRY
PRECIP MAY ALSO OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. OTRW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS RETURNING
UNDER VFR.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST SATURDAY...

RIVER MODEL RUNS FROM THE VARIOUS RFCS FROM THIS MORNING INCORPORATE
THE UPCOMING WET PERIOD WITH BASIN AVERAGE QPF VALUE ACROSS THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA BASINS RANGING FROM ABOUT 0.75 INCHES IN THE
UPPER JAMES TO AS MUCH AS 1.20 INCHES OVER THE LOWER DAN. THE
RESULTING RIVER FORECASTS BRING STAGE UP SEVERAL FEET...BUT STILL
WELL WITHIN BANKFULL...SO NO FLOODING ISSUES EXPECTED. SOILS ARE
FAIRLY WET BUT RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODEST SO FLASH
FLOODING NOT AN ISSUE EITHER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/SK
NEAR TERM...JH/SK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/RCS/SK
HYDROLOGY...PC



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

 929 PM PST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
OREGON BY MIDNIGHT. BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN MORE SHOWERS AS A SECONDARY COLD DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL SNOW TO CONTINUE IN
THE CASCADES AND ACROSS THE PASSES INTO MONDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND CAUSE COLD EAST WINDS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS BUT WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
ASSOCIATED COLD WIND CHILLS. THE DRY COLD AND BLUSTERY PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A POSSIBILITY
OF WINTER WEATHER AT LOW ELEVATIONS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVED THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND MOST OF NORTHWEST OREGON THIS
EVENING...WITH VERY GOOD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...
DECENT AMOUNTS AT THE COAST...AND LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS. THE
STEADIER RAIN IS MOSTLY OVER THOUGH THE FRONT DOES LINGER A BIT IN
EASTERN LANE COUNTY BUT SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MIDNIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW
A PRETTY STEADY STREAM OF ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS COMING IN FROM THE
WEST NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW GOING THE
CASCADES. WE MAY SEE SOME RAIN SHADOWING IN THE VALLEYS THOUGH.

THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY BUT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS
TONIGHT...THEN PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A TRAILING
SECONDARY COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD GIVE US AN INCREASE IN THE SHOWERS AND
SNOW IN THE CASCADES. WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY...HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE SNOW ADVISORIES IN THE
CASCADES INTO MONDAY.

WE MAY SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
COAST RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL...AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO
AROUND 2000 FEET BY SUNDAY EVENING AND TO NEAR OR BELOW 1000 FEET BY
MONDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

AFTER THAT...DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD DOWN INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND CAUSE COLD EAST WINDS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND UP AND OVER THE CASCADES
AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON. THE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BE QUITE STRONG...POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR
SOME AREAS OF TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. THE EAST WINDS WILL
USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR...AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE WIND WILL PRODUCE SOME COLD WIND CHILLS. AN
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED DISCUSSING ALL OF THIS.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD...DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE
AREA. ECMWF AND GFS ARE STARTING TO KEY IN ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL DIVE DOWN THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK...SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGING PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH. IF THIS PANS OUT
AS FORECAST RIGHT NOW...A CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX ALL THE WAY TO THE
FLOOR OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY IS POSSIBLE INITIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
BELOW FREEZING...UNTIL ONSHORE WINDS AND DAYTIME HEATING CAN BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE FREEZING LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON. IF
THE FRONT IS SLOWER THAN FORECAST AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MORE LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING KEEPING IT
ALL RAIN. RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE THE AREA
THIS EVENING BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS TO AREAS NEAR THE FRONT. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...THE STEADY RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
COOLER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SHELTERED AREAS WHERE FOG MAY FORM. THE
MID-LEVEL C0LD AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY...SO THERE
IS A CHANCE AN EXTENDED CLEAR PERIOD COULD ALLOW IFR TO LIFR FOG TO
FORM...PARTICULARLY AT KEUG. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
AFTER 4PM SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DESTABILIZES THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN OCCASIONAL MVFR CIG
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THESE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. ADDITIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS COULD CREEP INTO THE TERMINAL TOWARDS 4PM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD WEST OF THE
CASCADES.
&&

.MARINE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS
SHOULD GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 11 TO 13 FT RANGE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTH OREGON COAST. EXPECT SEAS TO START SUBSIDING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LIKELY DROPPING BELOW 10 FT MONDAY
MORNING.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING...BUT IMPACTS TO MARINE
INTERESTS WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. AS THE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF
THE AREA...OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY. THIS
WILL ALLOW GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH NO MAJOR WESTERLY SWELLS...SEA CONDITIONS
WILL PRIMARILY BE DOMINATED BY WIND WAVES DURING THE PEAK OF THE EAST
WINDS, WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TW/CN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY FOR CASCADES IN
     LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST MONDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 PM PST
     SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
852 PM PST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered snow showers will continue overnight into Sunday with
light to moderate accumulations in the Idaho Panhandle...Cascade
Crest...and portions of Eastern Washington. Bitterly cold
northeast winds will develop by Monday and continue into Monday
night. Temperatures will be well below average with dry conditions
most of next week as arctic high pressure settles over the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Steady snow has ended and the region is transitioning into an
unstable atmosphere. The most consistent snow shower activity will
be in the oropgraphically favored areas including the Idaho
Mountains, Cascade Crest, and Blue Mtns. However, there are at
least two vorticity maximums spinning in a line from Ern WA to
Central BC on the cyclonic side of the upper level jet. Each of
these will bring the potential for clusters of snow showers...some
which could bring quick bursts of 1-2 inches. HRRR suggest far NE
WA may encounter one of these waves now and another in a few hours
so opted to leave Winter Storm Warning going with wording of
localized accumulations. It is conceivable that these same
local accumulations hit the Okanogan Valley, Spokane Area, or
Washington Palouse but given the low confidence and above freezing
temperatures from Spokane to Pullman, opted to cancel highlights.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs: A cold upper level trough and surface low pressure will
persist over the region through the next 24 hours. The eastern TAF
sites including KGEG...KCOE...KSFF and KPUW will be under threat
for IFR and LIFR conditions in snow through 02-03Z as moist isentropic
ascent continues. Conditions will improve after 02Z-03Z as a dry
slot moves through the region...but deterioration will occur
after 06Z with a cold front band of snow showers. KLWS will
probably remain VFR through this evening but with snow or rain
showers nearby. KMWH and KEAT will benefit from downslope off the
cascades for primarily VFR conditions. On Sunday cold air aloft
will destabilize the air mass leading to scattered snow showers
over the eastern TAF sites promoting occasional periods of low
MVFR or IFR conditions in snow. /MJF





&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        27  31  18  21   5  14 /  80  30  20  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  27  31  17  20   3  14 / 100  50  20  10   0   0
Pullman        29  33  19  23   3  14 / 100  70  30  30  10   0
Lewiston       32  38  24  29   9  19 / 100  60  40  30  10   0
Colville       26  33  20  24   1  18 /  60  30  20  10   0   0
Sandpoint      27  32  18  20   2  15 / 100  40  20  10  10   0
Kellogg        26  30  15  17  -3  11 / 100  70  40  20  10   0
Moses Lake     27  33  23  29   8  22 /  20  20  50  30   0   0
Wenatchee      28  34  25  30  12  23 /  20  20  60  40   0   0
Omak           25  29  21  26   4  17 /  20  10  40  20   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Sunday for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties.

     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for Coeur d`Alene
     Area-Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Sunday for Northeast Blue
     Mountains.

     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

 1045 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE FLORIDA PENINSULA UNDER
THE PROTECTIVE COVER OF A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
THE BAHAMAS. OUR DEEP LAYER FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND A POTENT TROUGH/SHORTWAVE FEATURE
EJECTING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN
MEXICO. FINALLY FURTHER UPSTREAM WE SEE A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF
ENERGY/JET STREAK DIVING DOWN OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK...OUT WEATHER WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK WEST INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF...AND SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE PRESSING DOWN
FROM ABOVE AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MADE FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE LATE DECEMBER SUN IS NOT THE
STRONGEST OF THE YEAR...BUT HAS BEEN DOING THE JOB OF BURNING OFF
THE THIN LAYER OF SURFACE FOG THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

THE STABLE AND FOGGY NEAR SURFACE LAYER WAS WELL SAMPLED IN THE
28/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE...BUT ABOVE THIS LAYER WE SEE A
GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE RELATED TO THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
LOCATED JUST ABOVE 900MB.

REST OF TODAY...
NOW THAT THE FOG HAS BURNED OFF WE CAN EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE THE REST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RISING THERMALS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER. THE 850MB TEMPERATURE OFF THE
MORNING SOUNDING WAS 17C. WITH THIS PROFILE...EVEN A MODEST AMOUNT
OF DIURNAL MIXING IS GOING TO MIX OUT OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S...AND LIKELY INTO THE 80S FOR MANY SPOTS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING AND GENERALLY WEAK
GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO ALLOW A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEA-BREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES A BIT
COOLER COMPARED WITH INLAND LOCATIONS AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM OFF THE
RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS. THE FORECAST THE REST OF THE DAY IS
FOR RAIN FREE CONDITIONS DUE TO THE GENERALLY DRY COLUMN ALOFT AND
NO SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT IN THE VICINITY. THERE IS A COLD FRONT
STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY THAT WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/AL/GA TODAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT ALLOW THIS FEATURE TO MOVE VERY FAR THROUGH
TONIGHT AND IT WILL NOT BE A CONCERN FOR OUR FORECAST TILL AT LEAST
TUESDAY.

TONIGHT...
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. HOWEVER...AS IT APPROACHES...THIS
ENERGY WILL BE QUICKLY SHEARING OUT AND DEAMPLIFYING. ABOUT THE ONLY
EFFECT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE TO BREAK DOWN/DEAMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TURN
OUR SYNOPTIC FLOW ALOFT MORE ZONAL IN NATURE. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
GET A LITTLE "KICK" EASTWARD WITH THE PASSING ENERGY...BUT SHOULD BE
STALLED NEAR APALACHEE BAY BY MONDAY MORNING. WE DO ANTICIPATE SOME
ADDITIONAL FOG/VISIBILITY ISSUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVERNIGHT...THE
SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE.
WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF WHICH SHOULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE. UNFORTUNATELY...MANY OF OUR AIRPORTS ARE IN LOWER/MORE FOG
PRONE LOCATIONS AND WILL PROB BE IMPACTED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EARLY MONDAY.

MONDAY...
MORE OF THE SAME. AREAS OF FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 13-15Z.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE DEAMPLIFIED...HOWEVER THE LOWER COLUMN WILL
STILL BE VERY WARM AND SUFFICIENT TO KEEP OUR TEMPS WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
AND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. COULD CERTAINLY SEE LOWER 80S
FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER ANTICIPATING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND HENCE TEMPS MAY
BE HELD DOWN IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY UP ACROSS APALACHEE BAY SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ATMOSPHERIC PUSH. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FOCUS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS UP TO
LEVY COUNTY...BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY. EVEN UP TOWARD
LEVY COUNTY WE DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH RAIN TO SERIOUSLY HAMPER ANY
OUTDOOR EVENTS/ACTIVITIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL STAY OFF
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR ZONES.

THE WEAK PASSING IMPULSE THAT FINALLY "SHOVES" THE FRONT DOWN INTO
THE FL PENINSULA IS ON TUESDAY...AND IT WILL BE AT THAT TIME THAT
SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF US. HAVE A GREAT
SECOND HALF OF YOUR WEEKEND. GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE WARM LATE
DECEMBER WEATHER!

&&

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
INTERESTING U/L PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE PERIOD...BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP THE MAIN WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE REGION.

A STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXTEND NORTH
THROUGH ALASKA ON TUESDAY.  DOWNSTREAM...A POSITIVELY TILTED L/W
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...A STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE WILL DIG DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE WITH AN U/L LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. ESTABLISHING A STRONG OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.  SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL UNDER CUT THE EAST PACIFIC BLOCK
WITH PRIMARY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW INTO THE CONUS DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF THE RIDGE FROM WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.  THE FRONT
WILL STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THE U/L FLOW.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY...THE U/L LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO OPEN
UP AND EJECT EAST APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH LONG
FETCH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS.

&&

AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE RETURNED TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER THE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG EARLIER IN THE MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD
FEATURE THE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A DEVELOPING SCT CU FIELDS. LIGHT
SE/S WINDS WILL SHIFT SW/W DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER AFTERNOON
HOURS NEAR THE COAST WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPING. AREAS OF FOG
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONDITIONS DO
NOT APPEAR AS FAVORABLE TO SEE THE EXTENT OF DENSE FOG SEEN THIS
PAST OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES TO SEE SIGNIFICANT VIS/CIG RESTRICTION
LOOK TO BE KLAL AND KPGD.

&&

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND MONDAY WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVERRIDING THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE AND PRODUCING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  65  78  65 /   0  10  10  30
FMY  81  66  81  66 /   0   0  10  10
GIF  82  64  81  64 /   0   0  10  20
SRQ  77  64  77  65 /   0   0  10  30
BKV  81  60  79  61 /   0   0  10  30
SPG  77  66  76  65 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...WYNN
LONG TERM...OGLESBY





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

 1025 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT EAST CENTRAL FL BEACHES TODAY...

MRNG RAOBS SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED H100-H90 LYR WITH A PRONOUNCED
H90-H70 SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRAPPING THE MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC.
DENSE FOG (VSBY AOB 1/4SM) LINGERING AT A FEW SITES...BUT LATEST SAT
IMAGES SHOW THE SRN FLANK OF THE FOG/STRATUS DECK HAS RETREATED N OF
SR50. SFC OBS SHOW VSBYS BOUNCING BTWN 1/2SM AND 3SM...INDICATING
THE SFC INVERSION IS BURNING OFF AND ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO MIX
OUT. WITH PREVAILING VSBYS NOW AOA 1/2SM...FOG NO LONGER MEETS DENSE
CRITERIA...ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AXIS OF AN H100-H70 ANTICYCLONE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A
STRONG LIFTING H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NO SIG CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS ACRS THE S HALF OF THE PENINSULA...
MAINTAINING A SRLY FLOW ARND 10MPH.

DESPITE A RELATIVELY MOIST H100-H85 LYR UPSTREAM WITH MEAN RH VALUES
AOA 80PCT...AIRMASS HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MID LVL VORTICITY OR
OMEGA LIFT...WHILE THE JET STREAK IS LOCATED TOO FAR TO THE NW TO
PROVIDE ANY SIG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE. FCST WILL REMAIN DRY. DEEP SRLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE L80S AREAWIDE...WHICH
WILL PUT MANY MAX RECORDS AT RISK.

UPDATES TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE FCST...NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 29/12Z
SFC WNDS: THRU 29/03Z...S/SW BTWN 5-8KTS...BCMG S/SE CSTL SITES AFT
28/18Z. AFT 29/03Z...S/SW AOB 3KTS.

VSBYS/WX: THRU 28/17Z...N OF KTIX-KISM AREAS MVFR BR...S OF
KTIX-KISM VFR. BTWN 28/17Z-29/03Z...VFR ALL SITES. AFT 29/03Z...
PREVAILING MVFR BR ALL SITES...N OF KTIX-KISM AREAS LIFR IN FG.

CIGS: THRU 28/17Z...N OF KTIX-KISM AREAS LIFR BTWN FL004-006...S OF
KTIX-KISM AOA FL120. BTWN 28/17Z-29/03Z...VFR ALL SITES. AFT
29/03Z...PREVAILING MVFR BTWN FL010-020 ALL SITES...AREAS LIFR BLO
FL004 N OF KTIX-KISM.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACRS S FL TO THE S
CNTRL GOMEX WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SW BREEZE ACRS THE LCL
ATLC THRU TONIGHT. SEAS 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE...ALMOST
ALL OF WHICH WILL BE DUE TO A LONG PD ERLY SWELL. THE LONG PD SWELL
WILL GENERATE A HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT AT AREA BEACHES THIS AFTN.
NO SIG CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS TODAY...     FCST
               RECORD     HIGH
DAYTONA BEACH  83/1988     81
ORLANDO        85/1916     83
MELBOURNE      87/1981     82
VERO BEACH     84/1981     82

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...LASCODY






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 652 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF RAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...AND A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO WEST
TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO MISSISSIPPI. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUMP MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MODELS KEEP MUCH OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. WE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST...AND DRIER FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. MUCH OF THE
MORNING RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE MIDLANDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
MILD TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH AND WEST...TO
AROUND 70 SOUTH AND EAST ARE FORECAST TODAY.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASES AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH.
SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AS SEVERAL
WEAK WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN CONTINUES MONDAY...THEN BEGIN TO TAPERS OFF MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO
THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN IT WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEN PUSH OFF THE
COAST INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
THEN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. MODELS
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND HAVE GENERALLY
GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP READINGS WARM
ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIP WILL BE ALL LIQUID.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
88D SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL AL NORTHEAST ACROSS NRN GA INTO THE NW HALF OF SC.
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION NW OF
THE TAF SITES...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB ARE ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THIS AGREES WITH MODELS TAKING BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE UPSTATE.

CLOUD BASES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR OGB.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS/CSRA THIS MORNING AND EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO
BECOME MVFR AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
LATEST HRRR INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES BY MID/LATE MORNING. TO MVFR
THIS MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE MOIST. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TONIGHT AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER 06Z. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A MENTION OF LIGHT
RAIN/VCSH IN THE TAFS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VSBYS.

NEAR CALM WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS
AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY
SUNSET AND BE LIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

 611 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
COULD APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS WILL SHIFT FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH NOTED
OVER THE GULF STREAM YESTERDAY EVENING HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD OVER THE LOCAL MARINE AREA NOW SOUTHWEST
VERSUS NORTHEAST. THE EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS IN PLACE ALOFT
WILL NUDGE EAST TODAY A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/ 4-CORNERS REGION DIGS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TEXAS. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH RIDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO KEEP THE PRIMARY MOISTURE CONVEYOR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST TODAY...THUS KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. IT WILL BE WARM DAY AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISE TO +12C
TO +14C... ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL TEMPER THE
WARMTH POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. IT WILL STILL BE A VERY WARM DAY FOR
LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID 70S AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES. A FEW UPPER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS CLOSEST TO THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER AS MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR THERE. IMMEDIATE BEACH LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE LOWER 60S DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF CHILLY ATLANTIC SHELF
WATERS IN THE MID 50S AND POSSIBLY SEA FOG.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS WARM/MOIST AIR BEGINS TO FLOW OVER THE
CHILLY SHELF WATERS THAT ARE IN PLACE OFF THE COAST. THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR QUITE SOME
TIME...ALTHOUGH ITS ONSET AND EXTENT IS STILL IN QUESTION.
CONDITIONS CERTAINLY LOOK RIPE FOR WIDESPREAD SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT...
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS DURING
WARM PERIODS. ANY SEA FOG THAT FORMS OFFSHORE COULD CERTAINLY
BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
TAKES HOLD ALONG THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE THERMALLY
DIRECT CIRCULATION BECOMES...DENSE FOG COULD BE ADVECTED AS FAR
INLAND AS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY...CHARLESTON HARBOR AND
POSSIBLY THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AFFECTING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND
PARTS OF DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MEAN RIDGING WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY ENOUGH OVERNIGHT THAT
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD IMPACT MAINLY
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT AND WEAK FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...IF ANY...WILL BE LIGHT AS MODELS STILL DEPICT A WELL-
DEFINED MID-LEVEL CLOUD POCKET HOLDING FIRM. WILL HIGHLIGHT 20-30
PERCENT POPS IN THESE AREAS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR ACTUALLY
SEEING MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S
COAST.

OUR BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD
DENSE SEA FOG EVENT UNFOLDING ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS OF SEA FOG
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AT SUNSET...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD INLAND UNDERNEATH
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. IN ADDITION...
MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY AREA OF SEA FOG AND RADIATION FOG WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS CERTAINLY LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
FOG TO AFFECT MANY AREAS TONIGHT...BUT FORECASTING THE TIMING AND
EXTENT OF SEA FOG IS ALWAYS A CHALLENGE. CONFIDENCE IN SEA FOG
FORMING IS RATHER HIGH GIVEN EXTENSIVE SEA FOG HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED DURING PREVIOUS WARM SPELLS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EXACTLY HOW THIS EVENT WILL PLAY
OUT. WILL HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG AND WIDESPREAD FOG ALL AREAS
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SPREADING INLAND AND FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
THE INTRODUCTION OF DENSE AND VISIBILITY ATTRIBUTES MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED IN THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT AND THIS
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

MONDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINA COASTLINE DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND
GRADUALLY SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD APPEARS TO OCCUR WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON...
PREFER TO CAP POPS BELOW THE LIKELY CATEGORY CONSIDERING SOME
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING COVERAGE. WILL INDICATE RAIN CHANCES
PEAKING IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ACCESS...WHILE STILL REMAINING
CONSERVATIVE SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
DAMPENING FLOW ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
STATE. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...COMBINED WITH A DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT...WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY MILD
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

TUESDAY...RAIN WILL STEADILY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AS THE COLD FRONT AND AN
ASSOCIATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST.
RAIN CHANCES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
SKY COVER SLOWLY SCATTERING TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS. COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTH FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST WILL
SUPPORT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW 60S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY...AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL
STRETCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES BY
MID WEEK. EXPECT RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY SHIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY MORNING WILL WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST STATES FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY PROVIDING THE NECESSARY
ENERGY TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL LIFT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL...THEN REINTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. LATEST
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE
SATURDAY...WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
CROSSING THE REGION. WILL ADVERTISE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN INDICATE A WARMING TREND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TODAY ATHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV JUST AFTER SUNSET IF THE RAP SOUNDINGS
PROVE CORRECT. SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST LATER
TODAY. SOME OF THIS WILL SPREAD INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE SEA BREEZE WITH A BIGGER PUSH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS LOOKS TO BE AT
KCHS...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH AT KSAV AS WELL. WILL TAKE
A SOMEWHAT CONSERATIVE APPROACH WITH THE 12Z TAFS SINCE THE TIMING
AND EXTENT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. WILL SHOW MVFR VSBYS/CIGS THIS
EVENING...DROPPING TO LIFR AT KCHS BY 06Z WITH HIGH-END IFR AT
KSAV. BOTH SITES COULD VERY WELL DROP BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS
AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE THOSE CONDITIONS JUST YET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP. THERE WILL
BE A RISK FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPING TODAY AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS
OVER THE CHILLY SHELF WATERS. THE ONSET AND EXTENT OF THE SEA FOG
REMAINS IN QUESTIONS...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GEORGIA AND BEAUFORT
COUNTY WATERS WHERE AIR PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES WILL BE THE
LONGEST. WILL LIMIT CONDITIONS TO AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH
THE FOG MAY VERY WELL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. A MARINE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AND WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 FT NEARSHORE AND
3-4 FT OFFSHORE...MAINLY IN LONG PERIOD EAST SWELLS WITH PERIODS
OF 15-18 SECONDS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOOK TO FAVOR WIDESPREAD DENSE SEA FOG ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS DOMINATE WITH SPEEDS LESS
THAN 10 KT. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE
THE SEA FOG WILL BECOME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A
NASTY DENSE SEA FOG EVENT WILL OCCUR. WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS...BUT NO
INTRODUCE DENSE WORDING JUST YET. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE WATERS...MAINLY IN LONG
PERIOD EAST SWELL.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE
DAY TO VEER NORTH OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND NORTHWEST
ACROSS GEORGIA MARINE ZONES. SEA FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...MOST LIKELY JUST OUTSIDE OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH HARBORS. HOWEVER...IF WINDS BACK MORE TO
THE SOUTH DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD...FOG COULD IMPACT ONE OR BOTH
OF THESE PORTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY IN
THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH...AND CONSIDERING SOME COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW WINDS/SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 801 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
236 AM CST

THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE BACK EDGE ALREADY
THOROUGH ROCKFORD. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR EXPECT SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS THIS MORNING EMANATING FROM A MODEST UPPER LOW IN
TEXAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A SEASONAL MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 30S OR SO. WE`LL HOLD A WEST WIND
WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE COOLER...THOUGH TODAY LOOKS TO BE
THE WARMEST FOR THE REST OF 2014. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SINK INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TONIGHT. LOCALLY...OUR
WINDS TURN NORTHERLY ALLOWING SOME OF THIS CONTINUE MOVING IN.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE
REGION PREVENTING A REAL COLD NIGHT...BUT STILL THE COLDEST WE/VE
SEEN IN A WHILE WITH LOWS INTO THE 20S.

BY MONDAY MORNING...A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING DOWN THE LAKE WILL
CONTINUE THE STREAM OF COLDER AIR. ADDITIONALLY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND MIX OF LOW AND MID
CLOUD...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS. NAM IS
STILL HINTING AT SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH
LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS DURING THE DAY ARE NOT SUPER IMPRESSIVE.

KMD

&&

.LONG TERM...
236 AM CST

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF COLD AIR COMES STREAMING IN.
THIS WILL ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE
NOT MUCH BETTER THAN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/LAKE INDUCED CAPE ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NW INDIANA.

AS THE ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS...WINDS WILL BACK
TO NW AND PUSH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EASTWARD. 850 TEMPS IN THE MINUS
TEENS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S IN SPITE OF
SOME CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING FEATURE THE COLDEST AIR MASS. NW
FLOW PERSISTS WITH MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE WSW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER WITH 20 BEING A STRETCH IN
PLACES.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL MODIFY AS THE DEEP COLD
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO BACK SOUTHWEST TO THE PACIFIC
GETS PINCHED OFF IN THE NORTH AND SHIFTS EAST OUR FOCUS THEN SHIFTS
TO A CUT OFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
GULF MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND THE ARCTIC VORTEX THAT AT THIS POINT
SETS UP NORTH OF HUDSON BAY. THE CALI LOW WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT EAST
AND NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE CLASH OF THE WARMER GULF AIR AND
ARCTIC AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION LOOKS TO RESULT IN A DYNAMIC
WINTER STORM SYSTEM. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE SOMEWHERE IN THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND
EXPECTING TO SET UP BEHIND IT DUE TO A REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR AND
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LOT HINGES ON THE INTERACTION WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM AS TO WHERE THIS SYSTEM HEADS...BUT MODELS TO THIS
POINT HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT ON THE TIME FRAME OF CONCERN BEING
LATER FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA. COLD AIR COMES RIGHT BACK IN
BEHIND IT.

KMD

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBTLE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOWS WINDS TO TURN IN OFF THE LAKE WHICH
SHOULD BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AND PROBABLY SOME FLURRIES INTO NE
ILLINOIS MONDAY MORNING.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES
OTHERWISE VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR.

IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
150 AM CST

MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE SOME TODAY AND THEN VEER MORE
NORTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN UP
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE FURTHER TO GALES WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTH INTO HUDSON BAY TIGHTENING UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
ARCTIC AIR FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. WINDS LOOK TO SUBSIDE
LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY RAMPING UP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY APPROACHES THE
REGION THOUGH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THAT SYSTEM.

IZZI

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
532 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

Main short-term challenge will be timing of the clearing trend
today. 08z/2am IR satellite imagery shows low clouds covering much
of central Illinois, except across the far northern KILX CWA from
Peoria northward where clouds have eroded. The 06z NAM 1000-850mb RH
field has a good handle on the current cloud cover, so have
generally followed its solution for sky cover today.  End result
will be clearing skies along the I-74 corridor by mid to late
morning, with clouds lingering into the afternoon further south.
Skies will become mostly clear across the board by late afternoon as
high pressure builds in from the west.  High temperatures will be
near normal for this time of year in the middle to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

Quiet weather is expected for the next several days before a storm
system gradually approaches from the southwest by the end of the
week.  High pressure will control the weather across central
Illinois on Monday, resulting in cool/dry conditions with highs in
the 30s. Meanwhile, a significant chunk of cold air currently in
place across central/western Canada will sink southward into the
central CONUS by the middle of the week.  Models have been hinting
at some light snow/flurries as CAA increases Monday night into
Tuesday, with the NAM being more aggressive with potential QPF.  NAM
time-height cross-sections reveal stronger lift within a deeper
moist layer than the GFS indicates.  Think the low-level moisture
may be a bit overdone on the NAM, so am leaning toward the GFS
solution here.  Even with drier air below 850mb, think lift will be
strong enough to warrant mention of a few flurries Monday night and
perhaps even into Tuesday morning before moisture profile thins and
high pressure builds into the region.  Heart of the cold airmass
will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday, when overnight lows dip
into the single digits and teens and highs only reach the lower to
middle 20s.

Once high slowly begins to shift eastward, attention turns to a
developing southern-stream storm system associated with a cut-off
upper low over the Desert Southwest.  Models are still displaying
a typical spread of solutions that far out, but confidence is
growing that a precipitation event will impact central Illinois by
the end of the week.  Both the GFS and ECMWF show surface low
pressure developing over the Texas panhandle by Friday evening, then
lifting northeastward into the Great Lakes on Saturday.  While their
tracks are not in perfect agreement, a N/NW trend is becoming
apparent.  GFS takes the low west of the CWA to near Moline by 12z
Sat, while the ECMWF tracks the low to near Champaign.  Both tracks
are further N/NW than previous runs, which suggests precip may be
more in the form of rain or a rain/snow mix across the area than
previously thought.  Based on GFS forecast soundings, if precip is
able to spread northward into the initially cold/dry airmass Friday
morning, light snow will be the primary precip type.  As temps warm
into the middle to upper 30s, the snow will likely mix with rain
across much of the area by Friday afternoon.  Precip will likely
remain quite light during the day Friday, with widespread precip
holding off until Friday night when airmass saturates and stronger
lift arrives.  At this point, will carry rain along/south of
I-70...a rain/snow mix across the middle of the CWA...and snow
along/north of a Rushville to Bloomington line Friday night into
Saturday.  The track of the system will likely change with
successive model runs, so precip type and any potential snow
accumulations still remain uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

Main concern across the central Illinois terminals through the 12Z
TAF valid time regards the disposition of the MVFR CIGS today as
high pressure builds into the area. Once the low clouds clear out,
VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the period.
The low cloud clearing trends today are tough to pinpoint as the
back edge of the cloud deck is far from smooth. Actually, the back
edge of the cloud deck is ragged, which should allow for skies to
go back/forth between BKN/OVC and SCT for a few hours before
finally clearing. The recent progression of the low clouds has
become difficult to track on satellite imagery due to a cirrus
shield moving over top of the low clouds. However, as best as I
can tell, the HRRR has a pretty good handle on the trends, and
will lean on it for clearing trends this morning into early
afternoon. Northwest winds will continue to diminish in speed as a
weak area of high pressure approaches today, eventually leading to
light/variable winds tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 514 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
236 AM CST

THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE BACK EDGE ALREADY
THOROUGH ROCKFORD. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR EXPECT SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS THIS MORNING EMANATING FROM A MODEST UPPER LOW IN
TEXAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A SEASONAL MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 30S OR SO. WE`LL HOLD A WEST WIND
WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE COOLER...THOUGH TODAY LOOKS TO BE
THE WARMEST FOR THE REST OF 2014. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SINK INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TONIGHT. LOCALLY...OUR
WINDS TURN NORTHERLY ALLOWING SOME OF THIS CONTINUE MOVING IN.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE
REGION PREVENTING A REAL COLD NIGHT...BUT STILL THE COLDEST WE`VE
SEEN IN A WHILE WITH LOWS INTO THE 20S.

BY MONDAY MORNING...A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING DOWN THE LAKE WILL
CONTINUE THE STREAM OF COLDER AIR. ADDITIONALLY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND MIX OF LOW AND MID
CLOUD...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS. NAM IS
STILL HINTING AT SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH
LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS DURING THE DAY ARE NOT SUPER IMPRESSIVE.

KMD

&&

.LONG TERM...
236 AM CST

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF COLD AIR COMES STREAMING IN.
THIS WILL ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE
NOT MUCH BETTER THAN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/LAKE INDUCED CAPE ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NW INDIANA.

AS THE ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS...WINDS WILL BACK
TO NW AND PUSH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EASTWARD. 850 TEMPS IN THE MINUS
TEENS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S IN SPITE OF
SOME CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING FEATURE THE COLDEST AIR MASS. NW
FLOW PERSISTS WITH MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE WSW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER WITH 20 BEING A STRETCH IN
PLACES.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL MODIFY AS THE DEEP COLD
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO BACK SOUTHWEST TO THE PACIFIC
GETS PINCHED OFF IN THE NORTH AND SHIFTS EAST OUR FOCUS THEN SHIFTS
TO A CUT OFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
GULF MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND THE ARCTIC VORTEX THAT AT THIS POINT
SETS UP NORTH OF HUDSON BAY. THE CALI LOW WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT EAST
AND NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE CLASH OF THE WARMER GULF AIR AND
ARCTIC AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION LOOKS TO RESULT IN A DYNAMIC
WINTER STORM SYSTEM. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE SOMEWHERE IN THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND
EXPECTING TO SET UP BEHIND IT DUE TO A REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR AND
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LOT HINGES ON THE INTERACTION WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM AS TO WHERE THIS SYSTEM HEADS...BUT MODELS TO THIS
POINT HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT ON THE TIME FRAME OF CONCERN BEING
LATER FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA. COLD AIR COMES RIGHT BACK IN
BEHIND IT.

KMD

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBTLE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOWS WINDS TO TURN IN OFF THE LAKE WHICH
SHOULD BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AND PROBABLY SOME FLURRIES INTO NE
ILLINOIS MONDAY MORNING.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EVERYTHING ELSE

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES
OTHERWISE VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR.

IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
150 AM CST

MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE SOME TODAY AND THEN VEER MORE
NORTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN UP
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE FURTHER TO GALES WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTH INTO HUDSON BAY TIGHTENING UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
ARCTIC AIR FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. WINDS LOOK TO SUBSIDE
LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY RAMPING UP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY APPROACHES THE
REGION THOUGH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THAT SYSTEM.

IZZI

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
305 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

Main short-term challenge will be timing of the clearing trend
today. 08z/2am IR satellite imagery shows low clouds covering much
of central Illinois, except across the far northern KILX CWA from
Peoria northward where clouds have eroded. The 06z NAM 1000-850mb RH
field has a good handle on the current cloud cover, so have
generally followed its solution for sky cover today.  End result
will be clearing skies along the I-74 corridor by mid to late
morning, with clouds lingering into the afternoon further south.
Skies will become mostly clear across the board by late afternoon as
high pressure builds in from the west.  High temperatures will be
near normal for this time of year in the middle to upper 30s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

Quiet weather is expected for the next several days before a storm
system gradually approaches from the southwest by the end of the
week.  High pressure will control the weather across central
Illinois on Monday, resulting in cool/dry conditions with highs in
the 30s. Meanwhile, a significant chunk of cold air currently in
place across central/western Canada will sink southward into the
central CONUS by the middle of the week.  Models have been hinting
at some light snow/flurries as CAA increases Monday night into
Tuesday, with the NAM being more aggressive with potential QPF.  NAM
time-height cross-sections reveal stronger lift within a deeper
moist layer than the GFS indicates.  Think the low-level moisture
may be a bit overdone on the NAM, so am leaning toward the GFS
solution here.  Even with drier air below 850mb, think lift will be
strong enough to warrant mention of a few flurries Monday night and
perhaps even into Tuesday morning before moisture profile thins and
high pressure builds into the region.  Heart of the cold airmass
will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday, when overnight lows dip
into the single digits and teens and highs only reach the lower to
middle 20s.

Once high slowly begins to shift eastward, attention turns to a
developing southern-stream storm system associated with a cut-off
upper low over the Desert Southwest.  Models are still displaying
a typical spread of solutions that far out, but confidence is
growing that a precipitation event will impact central Illinois by
the end of the week.  Both the GFS and ECMWF show surface low
pressure developing over the Texas panhandle by Friday evening, then
lifting northeastward into the Great Lakes on Saturday.  While their
tracks are not in perfect agreement, a N/NW trend is becoming
apparent.  GFS takes the low west of the CWA to near Moline by 12z
Sat, while the ECMWF tracks the low to near Champaign.  Both tracks
are further N/NW than previous runs, which suggests precip may be
more in the form of rain or a rain/snow mix across the area than
previously thought.  Based on GFS forecast soundings, if precip is
able to spread northward into the initially cold/dry airmass Friday
morning, light snow will be the primary precip type.  As temps warm
into the middle to upper 30s, the snow will likely mix with rain
across much of the area by Friday afternoon.  Precip will likely
remain quite light during the day Friday, with widespread precip
holding off until Friday night when airmass saturates and stronger
lift arrives.  At this point, will carry rain along/south of
I-70...a rain/snow mix across the middle of the CWA...and snow
along/north of a Rushville to Bloomington line Friday night into
Saturday.  The track of the system will likely change with
successive model runs, so precip type and any potential snow
accumulations still remain uncertain.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

Precip has shifted east of all the terminal sites, and MVFR clouds
will blanket the area the rest of the night and through much of
the morning tomorrow. CMI has a brief break in the MVFR clouds
until 07z/1am, but low clouds will fill in by 07z. The back edge
of the clouds is positioned to our west from south-central
Wisconsin through SE Iowa and down through the middle of Missouri.
The clearing progression has slowed later this evening, and that
trend should allow low clouds to linger over the terminal sites
into tomorrow morning. PIA should be the first to clear out,
possibly as early as 12-13z. Clearing trends should speed up with
turbulent mixing of dry air tomorrow, reaching BMI by 14z, SPI by
16z, CMI by 18z and DEC by 19z. The HRRR is quicker with clearing,
as is the RAP. Will stick with a more pessimistic clearing trend
until satellite images give more confidence in the models cloud
progressions. Wind speeds will decrease below 10kt by 08z-09z
tonight, and remain less than 10kt through the day tomorrow. Wind
direction will start out NW, then back to the west during the day
as high pressure builds farther into Illinois.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 922 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  A DRY SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND TUESDAY. IN THE
LONG TERM AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY AND COLD
WEATHER. HOWEVER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND ACROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION WAS ENDING RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
WILL PRETTY MUCH BE DONE BY FORECAST RELEASE TIME. SOME SITES ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MAY SEE A LITTLE DRIZZLE PRIOR TO 7AM.

MAIN ISSUES TODAY WILL BE HOW LONG CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AND
TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING LINE ACROSS NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW HOLES FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
THE RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM MIDDAY ON.  EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS MOST OF TODAY AS THIS WILL BE LAST AREA TO CLEAR
OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO
AROUND 40 FAR SOUTH WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO OUR REGION.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
INDICATE HIGHS SHOULD BE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
TO AROUND 40 FAR SOUTH WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS INDIANA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.
THE NAM SHOWS SOME QPF ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
ALL OTHER MODELS ARE DRY.  ALL MODELS INDICATE SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  AS A COMPROMISE
WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ON TO THE EAST TUESDAY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE AROUND -5 TO -8 MONDAY WILL COOL TO -10
TO -13 CELSIUS TUESDAY. THUS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COLDER TUESDAY AND EVEN COLDER ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE ARCTIC AIR
PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  IN MOST CASES MOS SEEMS TO TO
HANDLING THIS OK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD.  FIRST...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING BETTER CONSISTENCY IN
THE TRACK COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.  NOW THE GFS AND EURO ARE BOTH ON
BOARD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND UP INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA.  LATEST INITIALIZATION WAS A TAD FAST WITH BRINGING PRECIP
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
NIGHT.  NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING THAT FAST...SO
REMOVED MENTION OF ANY PRECIP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE MISSOURI VALLEY.  THE LIKELY POPS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT THAT REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS TRENDING TOWARD MATCH
NICELY.  SO...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS TO POPS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE IS STILL LOW UNTIL THE EXACT
TRACK BECOMES SOLIDIFIED...BUT IT/S LOOKING LIKE SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN/SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE
REMAINING TWO-THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 920 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

1420Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER ACROSS TAF SITES FOR MOST OF
TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR
CATEGORY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS RISE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT FURTHER LATE
IN TAF PERIOD AND REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY
AT 2 TO 6 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF/TDUD

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 631 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  A DRY SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND TUESDAY. IN THE
LONG TERM AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY AND COLD
WEATHER. HOWEVER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND ACROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION WAS ENDING RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
WILL PRETTY MUCH BE DONE BY FORECAST RELEASE TIME. SOME SITES ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MAY SEE A LITTLE DRIZZLE PRIOR TO 7AM.

MAIN ISSUES TODAY WILL BE HOW LONG CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AND
TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING LINE ACROSS NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW HOLES FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
THE RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM MIDDAY ON.  EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS MOST OF TODAY AS THIS WILL BE LAST AREA TO CLEAR
OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO
AROUND 40 FAR SOUTH WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO OUR REGION.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
INDICATE HIGHS SHOULD BE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
TO AROUND 40 FAR SOUTH WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS INDIANA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.
THE NAM SHOWS SOME QPF ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
ALL OTHER MODELS ARE DRY.  ALL MODELS INDICATE SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  AS A COMPROMISE
WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ON TO THE EAST TUESDAY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE AROUND -5 TO -8 MONDAY WILL COOL TO -10
TO -13 CELSIUS TUESDAY. THUS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COLDER TUESDAY AND EVEN COLDER ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE ARCTIC AIR
PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  IN MOST CASES MOS SEEMS TO TO
HANDLING THIS OK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD.  FIRST...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING BETTER CONSISTENCY IN
THE TRACK COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.  NOW THE GFS AND EURO ARE BOTH ON
BOARD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND UP INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA.  LATEST INITIALIZATION WAS A TAD FAST WITH BRINGING PRECIP
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
NIGHT.  NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING THAT FAST...SO
REMOVED MENTION OF ANY PRECIP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE MISSOURI VALLEY.  THE LIKELY POPS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT THAT REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS TRENDING TOWARD MATCH
NICELY.  SO...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS TO POPS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE IS STILL LOW UNTIL THE EXACT
TRACK BECOMES SOLIDIFIED...BUT IT/S LOOKING LIKE SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN/SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE
REMAINING TWO-THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 624 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER ACROSS TAF SITES FOR MOST OF
TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR
CATEGORY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS RISE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT FURTHER LATE
IN TAF PERIOD AND REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY
AT 2 TO 6 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1042 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING FEATURE THE LARGE AREA OF
RAIN MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE COLD FRONT NOW POSITIONED
IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS SLOWED WITH A LARGE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
AHEAD AND BEHIND OF THIS FRONT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. UPSTREAM...SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE
MS VALLEY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
WILL EXPECT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS CURRENT
TREND OF THINKING IS ALONG WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL ALLOW
THE CURRENT ZFP TO RIDE THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MAINLY STEADY SO HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE CURRENT OBS AND SENT
THE GRIDS TOT HE NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
AS WELL. UPDATE CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND
ROUND OF RAIN A BIT LATER TODAY. NAM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TAKING
ALL THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH SEEM TO
HANG ON TO THE IDEA OF A SECOND WAVE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
RAIN LINGERING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...MAINLY OUR
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER MOST IF NOT
ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR
TENDS TO SUPPORT THE HRRR AS ECHOS ARE FILLING IN AND INTENSIFYING
ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. UPDATE
WILL ENTAIL ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POP GRIDS FOR RECENT RADAR
TRENDS AND AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. ENERGY FROM
PLAINS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH CORRESPONDING SFC LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A SFC
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...ROUGHLY STRETCHING FROM EAST CENTRAL OHIO
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN TN...HAVING PASSED THOUGH CVG AND BWG. THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN BEING PRODUCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE WILL CARRY PRECIP EASTWARD WITH IT THROUGH THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE LULL IN RAIN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
BUT LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN RATHER LIGHT OVERALL...AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH IN OUR SOUTHERN
MOST COUNTIES THUS FAR AND MUCH SMALLER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT TO
SEE ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS THE
SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THESE CHANCES WILL DROP AS WE MOVE
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. THE PREVIOUS NAM DID TRY
TO BRING MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION BUT THE 06Z RUN BACKED OFF ON
THIS ONCE AGAIN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN A COLDER
AIR MASS AND WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
COLDER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR WEDNESDAY
AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THIS
SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
SOME RETURN FLOW AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
RETURN TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THEN WE START TO FOCUS ON
ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THURSDAY NIGHT A
CLOSED LOW WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGION. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN EJECTING EAST AND WILL AID IN DEVELOPING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ARKLATEX AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY. INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIP
MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BRING SNOW TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...HOWEVER AS
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EASTERN KY GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR WE WILL
SEE A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FRIDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION GOING INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION MAKING FOR A
WINDY DAY ACROSS EASTERN KY. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST HIGHEST
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR
MAXIMUM MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL KEEP FLIGHT
CONDITIONS QUITE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE...INITIALLY VERY SLOW TO PICK
UP ON THE WORSENING WEATHER HAS FINALLY COME IN LINE WITH ACTUAL
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. AND FROM ALL APPEARANCES WE WILL SEE RAIN
LINGER ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
CONSEQUENTLY FOLLOWED GUIDANCE CLOSELY WHICH WAS VERY PESSIMISTIC...
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST WINDOW.
WINDS ARE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME AT
AROUND 5 KTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...RAY







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 720 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
AS WELL. UPDATE CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND
ROUND OF RAIN A BIT LATER TODAY. NAM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TAKING
ALL THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH SEEM TO
HANG ON TO THE IDEA OF A SECOND WAVE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
RAIN LINGERING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...MAINLY OUR
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER MOST IF NOT
ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR
TENDS TO SUPPORT THE HRRR AS ECHOS ARE FILLING IN AND INTENSIFYING
ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. UPDATE
WILL ENTAIL ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POP GRIDS FOR RECENT RADAR
TRENDS AND AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. ENERGY FROM
PLAINS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH CORRESPONDING SFC LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A SFC
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...ROUGHLY STRETCHING FROM EAST CENTRAL OHIO
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN TN...HAVING PASSED THOUGH CVG AND BWG. THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN BEING PRODUCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE WILL CARRY PRECIP EASTWARD WITH IT THROUGH THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE LULL IN RAIN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
BUT LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN RATHER LIGHT OVERALL...AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH IN OUR SOUTHERN
MOST COUNTIES THUS FAR AND MUCH SMALLER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT TO
SEE ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS THE
SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THESE CHANCES WILL DROP AS WE MOVE
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. THE PREVIOUS NAM DID TRY
TO BRING MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION BUT THE 06Z RUN BACKED OFF ON
THIS ONCE AGAIN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN A COLDER
AIR MASS AND WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
COLDER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR WEDNESDAY
AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THIS
SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
SOME RETURN FLOW AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
RETURN TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THEN WE START TO FOCUS ON
ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THURSDAY NIGHT A
CLOSED LOW WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGION. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN EJECTING EAST AND WILL AID IN DEVELOPING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ARKLATEX AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY. INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIP
MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BRING SNOW TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...HOWEVER AS
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EASTERN KY GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR WE WILL
SEE A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FRIDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION GOING INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION MAKING FOR A
WINDY DAY ACROSS EASTERN KY. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST HIGHEST
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR
MAXIMUM MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL KEEP FLIGHT
CONDITIONS QUITE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE...INITIALLY VERY SLOW TO PICK
UP ON THE WORSENING WEATHER HAS FINALLY COME IN LINE WITH ACTUAL
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. AND FROM ALL APPEARANCES WE WILL SEE RAIN
LINGER ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
CONSEQUENTLY FOLLOWED GUIDANCE CLOSELY WHICH WAS VERY PESSIMISTIC...
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST WINDOW.
WINDS ARE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME AT
AROUND 5 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...RAY






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

 939 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 931 AM SUN...AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL
PLAINS THIS MORNING. AREA APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY VIRGA WITH DRY LAYER
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...HOWEVER SOME STATIONS REPORTING LIGHT RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND. SATELLITE PIX AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THICKER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR INDICATING LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DAY AS WEAK COASTAL TROUGH AND APPROACHING FRONT AFFECT
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WITH THE NAM BEING THE QUICKEST TO PUSH IT THROUGH
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF AND
PREVIOUS FCST FOR TIMING WHICH PUSHES THE FRONT TO ABOUT CAPE
LOOKOUT BY MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF RAIN RAMPS UP
TONIGHT...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD...IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE MON MORNING AND
STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS MON NIGHT AND TUES. BEST FORCING
AND LIFT OCCUR AFTER FROPA WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALL BUT SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS WON`T BE TOO SIGNIFICANT...MAINLY
LESS THAN AN HALF INCH. WEAK CAA AND A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL
INVERSION ON MONDAY WILL MEAN A LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAIN AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO UPR 50S SOUTH.

A STRONG POST FRONTAL INVERSION WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES MON NIGHT AND TUES AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE CONTINUING TO BRING LOW CLOUDS
WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. DISCOUNTING THE NAM
SOLUTION THIS PERIOD AS IT IS AN OUTLIER DEVELOPING STRONG LOW
PRES AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TUES. SHOULD BEGIN
TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TUES/TUES NIGHT AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER THE
NAM IS SLOWER IN DOING SO WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN THROUGH TUES
NIGHT. HIGHS TUES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WED THROUGH FRI BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS. WED WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...THEN WILL SEE
THE AIRMASS GRADUALLY MODERATE THURS AND FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. LOWS WED AND THURS IN THE UPR 20S INLAND TO 30S COASTAL
SECTIONS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO HOLD MINS TO THE 30S
INLAND AND 40S COAST FRI.

00Z MODELS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF
STATES...AT LEAST TROUGH THE ONSET OF PRECIP LATE FRI INTO SAT.
HIGH PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION SAT. WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE COULD
BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SAT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE
MID LEVELS AND SUBSEQUENTLY FASTER PUSHING THE FRONT AND PRECIP
OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY DAMPENS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO
THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING MVFR IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS CEILINGS LOWER. FOR THE MOST PART
MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SPOTTY
SHOWERS PUSHING INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING AS SOME FOG DEVELOPS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT
AND CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER. BY AFTER MIDNIGHT IFR CONDITIONS
BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AND RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF RTES EARLY MON
WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE CONTINUING TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN WITH
SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. BULK OF THE PRECIP PROGGED
TO PUSH EAST OF THE TERMINALS MON AFTERNOON BUT EXEPCT IFR/LIFR
STRATUS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING INTO TUES. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
WED AND THURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 938 AM SUN...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4
FEET. FRONT TO THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BRINGING WINDS TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS
UPDATE. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
WAS A BIT FASTER TO GET THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT
FOLLOWED A SLIGHTLY SLOWER BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF AND PREVIOUS
FCST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL BE DOWN NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LESSEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA WITH A BIT OF A SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT COMING DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. UNTIL THEN SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET FOR MOST
OF THE WATERS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE A SMALL AREA OF 5 FOOT SEAS IN
THE CENTRAL WATERS AROUND DIAMOND BUOY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LESSEN A BIT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN WATERS MON MORNING WITH N/NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KT
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUES. WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUES ALLOWING N/NE WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 15-25 KT THROUGH TUES EVENING. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT
NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 3-6 FT SOUTH TUES/TUES NIGHT IN RESPONSE.
DISCOUNTING THE NAM SOLUTION TUES INTO WED AS IT IS AN OUTLIER
DEVELOPING STRONGER LOW OFF THE COAST WITH WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE
LATE TUES. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUES NIGHT AND
WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. N WINDS AOB 15 KT WED
BECOMES WLY THURS. SEAS PROGGED TO SUBSIDE TO 2-5 FT WED AND 1-3
FT THURS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RSB/SK
MARINE...CGG/RSB/SK







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 701 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS THE MORNING. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE COLD
CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRACKING SEVERAL BANDS OF FAST MOVING SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY
ACROSS W AND N CWA AT 0830Z. IN GENERAL THE SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED
AS THEY ADVANCE EAST. MOST ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS ENTERING WEST
COUNTIES RIGHT NOW. HRRR WEAKENS THIS BAND AS IT MOVES DEEPER
INTO THE CWA...THOUGH EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO PICK UP SOME
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR ALSO ACCOMPANYING
THESE SHOWERS AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE FALLING OR STEADY
TEMPERATURES TODAY. SHOWERS WILL MIX AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BAND SLOW SHIFTS SOUTH OF CWA THIS EVENING WITH ORGANIZED
SHOWERS WANING. SHOWERS ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD
AIR MAY ARRIVE TO RESULT IN SNOW BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. QUIET WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLER THEN PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR LATE DEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...A WAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. MORE CONFIDENCE THAT IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA MON NIGHT AND
TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK
AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WAVES OF COLDER AIR DIVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK
OF DECEMBER. COOLER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA AS WE RING IN THE NEW YEAR.

GEFS AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF
2015 DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND. STORM TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK WEST OF PA BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF MILD AIR BACK INTO THE STATE WITH RAIN THE LIKELY DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN
THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ALMOST A WEEK OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
 THE STRONG BAND THAT WAS ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAS DISSIPATED AS
IT MOVED EASTWARD. REDUCING CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN
TAF SITES DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND SHOWERS FROM THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER AT BFD AND JST THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS PRECIP FADES CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE...THOUGH REDUCINGCIGS
OF MVFR AND LOWER SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ TAF
SITES...THOUGH MVFR SHOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. VFR SHOULD RETURN LATE TODAY AS
CLEARING SPREADS TO THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT PRESSES SLOWLY SOUTH
THRU THE MID- ATLANTIC - EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT THERE. MVFR COULD
RETURN TO JST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

MON-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS/HAGNER
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 1043 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
SOME MOISTURE WILL LINGER UNTIL TUESDAY. DRIER AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK...BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM EST UPDATE...A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO EXIT EAST OF THE AREA BY
NOON...WITH A DRY SLOT MOVING IN THRU THE REST OF THE REGION THRU
THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE...POPS WERE LOWERED INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND LOW END CHANCE RANGE IN THE MTNS ZONES
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z SUN...BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP FROM NW TO SE THRU
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

910 AM EST UPDATE...HAVE RAISED POPS TO 90/100 RANGE THIS MORNING
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA PER LATEST RADAR TREND. THIS IS
WELL IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BAND WILL
MOVE ACROSS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-85 THIS MORNING THRU
MIDDAY. ALSO...HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST SURFACE OBS.

AS OF 645 AM...RAIN SHIELD HAS MADE VERY LITTLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS
ABOVE (ROUGHLY) I-85 THIS MORNING...AND AM BEGINNING TO WONDER IF
THE PRECIP ISN/T GOING TO JUST FIZZLE MORE OR LESS IN PLACE...AS
UPGLIDE WEAKENS...AND THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE HIGH POPS (60-80) ACROSS OUR NC ZONES...BUT THESE HAVE BEEN
SCALED BACK FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS STEADY THIS MORNING UNDER DENSE
CLOUD COVER.

AREA OF MODERATE RAIN IS FINALLY PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL...THIS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN
WHAT THE MODELS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN DEPICTING...AND THE HIGHEST QPF
FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST
GA...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE PRECIP
SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME...AS THE BROAD BAND
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT TRANSLATES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THEREFORE...THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN NC MAY YET SEE UP
TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
TOWARD THE I-77 CORRIDOR.

AS UPGLIDE SHUTS OFF AND MID-LEVELS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP
SHOULD COME TO AN END...ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST AND THERE MAY BE PATCHES OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN LINGERING.
POPS WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT IN THE TOKEN CHANCE RANGE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIP FALLING INTO A DRY AIR MASS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...A WEAK IN-SITU CAD EVENT MAY RESULT...AND MAX TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO END UP BEING RATHER CLOSE TO CLIMO...DESPITE HIGH
THICKNESS VALUES FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM TEXAS/THE LOWER MISS VALLEY
TONIGHT WILL DAMPEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. NEVERTHELESS...A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND WARRANTING CATEGORICAL POPS IN
ALL AREAS ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER ROUND OF .25-.50 INCH QPF APPEARS
LIKELY IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PESKY FRONTAL ZONE FINALLY DOES LOOK TO BE
FORCED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA MONDAY AS A CANADIAN AIRMASS
EXPANDS OVER MOST OF THE ERN CONUS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR DO START TO
FILTER IN BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME LLVL MOISTURE DOES LINGER INTO
TUE. THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THAT
TIME...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA BY TUE NIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE COLD ADVECTION AND LLVL LIFT
MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE...IN TIME TO ENCOUNTER THE MOISTURE. THUS POPS
EXHIBIT A SECONDARY PEAK TUE MRNG. AS WINDS VEER TO NW AROUND THAT
TIME...SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH POPS TAKING A
LITTLE LONGER TO TAPER OFF TUE NEAR THE TENN BORDER. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH TUE MRNG. PROFILES INDICATE AN
ACCORDINGLY WARM COLUMN...AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. ICE NUCLEATION AND SNOW PRODUCTION ARE
UNLIKELY...SO WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE CWFA
MON NIGHT NO MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP HAS BEEN MADE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY DEEPER DRYING BEGINS LATER TUE AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEARER. MAX TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO AROUND CLIMO TUE FOLLOWED BY SIMILARLY NORMAL TEMPS
FOR WED MRNG. DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION...NOTABLY GUSTY WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AIRMASS HAVING ALREADY
PUSHED THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...REMARKABLY STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS GETS SHUNTED SWD AS NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO
THE MIDWEST AND PATTERN BEGINS TO REAMPLIFY OVER THE EAST. DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR AREA WED-THU WITH TEMPS
NEAR CLIMO. THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY THU NIGHT
INITIATING RETURN FLOW INTO THE WRN GULF STATES AS THE CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PICKS UP SPEED. EVENTUALLY THAT WILL TRACK
ACRS THE MIDDLE OR LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SPINNING UP A NEW
SYSTEM.  AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 28/00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND EC IS
GENERALLY GOOD...NOW ONLY SHOWING MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC LOW
TRACK. REGARDLESS OF THE PRECISE TRACK PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE THU NIGHT BEFORE PEAKING SATURDAY. MODELS HINT AT SOME PTYPE
CONCERNS EARLY IN THE EVENT WITH A POSSIBLE IN-SITU CAD EVENT
DEVELOPING...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN WITH TEMPS
TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BEYOND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...-RA HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE TERMINAL THIS
MORNING...REMAINING SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL THUS
FAR. STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF -RA TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...AS THE
LOW LEVEL LIFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL...
THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH CIGS WILL LOWER LATER THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC
REGARDING THE IFR POTENTIAL...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF IFR
CIGS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...I/M BECMG LESS CONFIDENT THIS
WILL EVEN WORK OUT...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE THE
IFR CIGS ALTOGETHER. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR BY
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
AS LIFT INCREASES AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE. MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IFR DEVELOP BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT S/SW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT
KAND THROUGH THE MORNING...ALONG WITH OCCL MVFR VISBY IN -RA. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KGSP/KGMU BY 15Z OR SO. THINGS
ARE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AT THE NC TERMINALS...AS -RA HAS BEEN SLOW
TO MATERIALIZE. IT APPEARS THAT -RA SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AT
KAVL...BUT WHETHER THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE CIGS DOWN INTO
THE IFR RANGE IS UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INSIST THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THERE...SO A TEMPO HAS BEEN
INCLUDED DURING LATE MORNING. AT KHKY...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT IN
HOLDING OFF ON THE IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 18Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS LIFT INCREASES AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE. MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE A
GOOD BET AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IFR
DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OCCURS THROUGHOUT
TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN BY MID-WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       MED   69%     MED   72%     LOW   52%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   69%     MED   66%     LOW   38%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       MED   63%     LOW   58%     LOW   49%     MED   73%
KHKY       HIGH  80%     MED   61%     LOW   38%     MED   70%
KGMU       HIGH  83%     MED   72%     LOW   44%     HIGH  83%
KAND       HIGH  83%     LOW   47%     LOW   33%     HIGH  86%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/JOH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 918 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
SOME MOISTURE WILL LINGER UNTIL TUESDAY. DRIER AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK...BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
910 AM EST UPDATE...HAVE RAISED POPS TO 90/100 RANGE THIS MORNING
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA PER LATEST RADAR TREND. THIS IS
WELL IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BAND WILL
MOVE ACROSS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-85 THIS MORNING THRU
MIDDAY. ALSO...HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST SURFACE OBS.

AS OF 645 AM...RAIN SHIELD HAS MADE VERY LITTLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS
ABOVE (ROUGHLY) I-85 THIS MORNING...AND AM BEGINNING TO WONDER IF
THE PRECIP ISN/T GOING TO JUST FIZZLE MORE OR LESS IN PLACE...AS
UPGLIDE WEAKENS...AND THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE HIGH POPS (60-80) ACROSS OUR NC ZONES...BUT THESE HAVE BEEN
SCALED BACK FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS STEADY THIS MORNING UNDER DENSE
CLOUD COVER.

AREA OF MODERATE RAIN IS FINALLY PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL...THIS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN
WHAT THE MODELS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN DEPICTING...AND THE HIGHEST QPF
FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST
GA...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE PRECIP
SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME...AS THE BROAD BAND
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT TRANSLATES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THEREFORE...THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN NC MAY YET SEE UP
TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
TOWARD THE I-77 CORRIDOR.

AS UPGLIDE SHUTS OFF AND MID-LEVELS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP
SHOULD COME TO AN END...ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST AND THERE MAY BE PATCHES OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN LINGERING.
POPS WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT IN THE TOKEN CHANCE RANGE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIP FALLING INTO A DRY AIR MASS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...A WEAK IN-SITU CAD EVENT MAY RESULT...AND MAX TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO END UP BEING RATHER CLOSE TO CLIMO...DESPITE HIGH
THICKNESS VALUES FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM TEXAS/THE LOWER MISS VALLEY
TONIGHT WILL DAMPEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. NEVERTHELESS...A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND WARRANTING CATEGORICAL POPS IN
ALL AREAS ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER ROUND OF .25-.50 INCH QPF APPEARS
LIKELY IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PESKY FRONTAL ZONE FINALLY DOES LOOK TO BE
FORCED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA MONDAY AS A CANADIAN AIRMASS
EXPANDS OVER MOST OF THE ERN CONUS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR DO START TO
FILTER IN BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME LLVL MOISTURE DOES LINGER INTO
TUE. THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THAT
TIME...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA BY TUE NIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE COLD ADVECTION AND LLVL LIFT
MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE...IN TIME TO ENCOUNTER THE MOISTURE. THUS POPS
EXHIBIT A SECONDARY PEAK TUE MRNG. AS WINDS VEER TO NW AROUND THAT
TIME...SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH POPS TAKING A
LITTLE LONGER TO TAPER OFF TUE NEAR THE TENN BORDER. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH TUE MRNG. PROFILES INDICATE AN
ACCORDINGLY WARM COLUMN...AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. ICE NUCLEATION AND SNOW PRODUCTION ARE
UNLIKELY...SO WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE CWFA
MON NIGHT NO MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP HAS BEEN MADE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY DEEPER DRYING BEGINS LATER TUE AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEARER. MAX TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO AROUND CLIMO TUE FOLLOWED BY SIMILARLY NORMAL TEMPS
FOR WED MRNG. DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION...NOTABLY GUSTY WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AIRMASS HAVING ALREADY
PUSHED THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...REMARKABLY STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS GETS SHUNTED SWD AS NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO
THE MIDWEST AND PATTERN BEGINS TO REAMPLIFY OVER THE EAST. DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR AREA WED-THU WITH TEMPS
NEAR CLIMO. THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY THU NIGHT
INITIATING RETURN FLOW INTO THE WRN GULF STATES AS THE CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PICKS UP SPEED. EVENTUALLY THAT WILL TRACK
ACRS THE MIDDLE OR LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SPINNING UP A NEW
SYSTEM.  AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 28/00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND EC IS
GENERALLY GOOD...NOW ONLY SHOWING MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC LOW
TRACK. REGARDLESS OF THE PRECISE TRACK PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE THU NIGHT BEFORE PEAKING SATURDAY. MODELS HINT AT SOME PTYPE
CONCERNS EARLY IN THE EVENT WITH A POSSIBLE IN-SITU CAD EVENT
DEVELOPING...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN WITH TEMPS
TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BEYOND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...-RA HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE TERMINAL THIS
MORNING...REMAINING SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL THUS
FAR. STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF -RA TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...AS THE
LOW LEVEL LIFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL...
THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH CIGS WILL LOWER LATER THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC
REGARDING THE IFR POTENTIAL...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF IFR
CIGS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...I/M BECMG LESS CONFIDENT THIS
WILL EVEN WORK OUT...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE THE
IFR CIGS ALTOGETHER. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR BY
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
AS LIFT INCREASES AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE. MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IFR DEVELOP BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT S/SW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT
KAND THROUGH THE MORNING...ALONG WITH OCCL MVFR VISBY IN -RA. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KGSP/KGMU BY 15Z OR SO. THINGS
ARE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AT THE NC TERMINALS...AS -RA HAS BEEN SLOW
TO MATERIALIZE. IT APPEARS THAT -RA SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AT
KAVL...BUT WHETHER THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE CIGS DOWN INTO
THE IFR RANGE IS UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INSIST THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THERE...SO A TEMPO HAS BEEN
INCLUDED DURING LATE MORNING. AT KHKY...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT IN
HOLDING OFF ON THE IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 18Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS LIFT INCREASES AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE. MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE A
GOOD BET AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IFR
DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OCCURS THROUGHOUT
TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN BY MID-WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       MED   79%     MED   68%     LOW   56%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       MED   64%     MED   68%     LOW   41%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   64%     LOW   56%     LOW   51%     MED   72%
KHKY       MED   79%     LOW   54%     LOW   37%     MED   70%
KGMU       MED   66%     MED   68%     LOW   45%     HIGH  90%
KAND       MED   66%     LOW   45%     LOW   33%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/JOH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 946 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
A MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS...AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSES EAST OVER THE REGION TODAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED AREAS OF VERY LIGHT...OCCASIONALLY MIXED
WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SLEET OR SNOW CONTINUES AS COLUMN COOLING AND
SATURATION OCCUR WITH THE LIFT AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 30S...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ON
AREA ROADS FOR TRAVELERS...THOUGH BRIDGE AND OVERPASSES SHOULD
STILL BE TAKEN SLOWLY UNTIL THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MIXTURE
ENDS.

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THIS AREA.
ENVIRONMENTAL SOUNDINGS WILL BE LITTLE WARMER ALOFT ACROSS THESE
AREAS AND EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S. HOWEVER...AS THE CORE INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
ROTATES ACROSS A FEW SLEET PELLET SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EVEN
THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA
SHOULD HELP HIGHS WARM TO AROUND 50 OR IN THE LOWER 50S WITH THE
HELP OF INCREASING INSOLATION.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 600 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL SCATTER FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON ONCE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND A
PASSING UPPER TROUGH.

SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN WACO THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS.

A NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS. THE
WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY SUNSET AND REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

79


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...

HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE LIGHT RAIN
MAY BE OBSERVED SOON. ALSO EXPANDED POPS FURTHER NORTH BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND TRACKS OF ECHOES. LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY
BE REPORTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO MEXIA TO
ATHENS. NORTH OF THIS LINE THERE IS STILL DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAT NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME/SATURATED
BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND. EXPANDED THE RAIN
MENTION AS FAR NORTH AS A CISCO TO DFW TO EMORY LINE THIS MORNING.
WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION FOR LIGHT SLEET MIXING WITH THE RAIN IN
AN AREA WEST OF A CLEBURNE TO TEMPLE LINE. SOME LIGHT SLEET HAS
BEEN REPORTED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AND THE LATEST RAP RUN
INDICATES TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE BIT OF SLEET
TO MIX WITH THE RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. NO ACCUMULATIONS
OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SLEET.

82/JLD

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST CONTINUES MOVING EAST AND WILL
PROVIDE LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES TODAY. THE RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS
LOOKED ACTIVE ALL NIGHT BUT A LEVEL OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS PREVENTED MUCH PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING
THE GROUND SO FAR. EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR HAS GIVEN THE APPEARANCE
THAT IT HAS BEEN RAINING ALMOST ALL NIGHT SOUTH OF A GATESVILLE TO
ATHENS LINE...NONE OF THE AUTOMATED WEATHER STATIONS HAVE
REPORTED ANY RAIN UNTIL AN HOUR AGO. HEARNE /KLHB/ FINALLY REPORTED
RAIN ON THEIR 3 AM HOURLY OB INDICATING THAT THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SATURATE DOWN. EXPECT OTHER
SITES IN THAT AREA TO BEGIN REPORTING LIGHT RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF A LAMPASAS TO
MIDLOTHIAN TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE TODAY WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES IN THE MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIQUID WITH NO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION MIXING...EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR POSSIBLY SOME SLEET MIXING IN.

CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON BUT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES CAN EXPECT A COOL DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER. WITH THE SKIES CLEARING TONIGHT AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THE RETURN OF SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER
ON MONDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

OVERALL...THE FORECAST FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH BUT DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER
WEATHER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. IT WILL
STEADILY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH BEHIND
IT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODIFIED A LITTLE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY DUE TO SOUTH AND EAST 850 MB WINDS ABOVE THE FRONT AND
WEST WINDS ABOVE 850 MB. HOWEVER...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL STILL BE A RATHER COLD PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S AND
40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

WE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS A LACK OF LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. WE
WILL BE IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
DOWN THE WEST COAST BUT IT WILL STILL BE TOO FAR WEST AT THAT TIME
TO SPREAD ANY LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER OUR AREA. ISENTROPIC CHARTS
ALSO INDICATE A LACK OF LIFT IN OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. WE
START TO NOTICE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. ANALYZING THIS
LAYER IN THE FORECASTED SOUNDINGS...WE SEE MOISTURE IN THE LAYER
WHERE THE LIFT IS OCCURRING...BUT THE LAYER BELOW 800 MB...AND IN
PARTICULAR BELOW 900 MB...IS DRY AND WOULD LIKELY EVAPORATE ANY
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. SO THE CHALLENGE NOW
IS WILL THE LOWER LAYER SATURATE ENOUGH FROM TOP-DOWN PROCESSES TO
ALLOW ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND? THIS APPEARS TO BE A
LOW CHANCE AS THE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO SATURATE THE LAYER ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THE RADAR MAY SHOW A LOT OF ECHOES ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER...WILL
LEAVE 20 POPS FOR DRIZZLE SOUTHWEST OF A CISCO TO HILLSBORO TO
FREESTONE LINE IN CASE SOME LIGHT RAIN DOES REACH THE GROUND.
DEPENDING ON THE TIME AND TEMPERATURES...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WEST OF I-35.

OUR MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES BUT ALSO SPREADS NORTH OVER MORE OF THE REGION AND
STRENGTHENS. THE MODELS ARE NOT OUTPUTTING ANY QPF DURING THIS 12
HOUR PERIOD FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY BECAUSE THEY
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY /AS
INDICATED ON THE FORECASTED SOUNDINGS/. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE DOWN AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES BUT THE QUESTION AND CHALLENGE IS WHEN WILL THAT OCCUR.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER
6 AM THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING
/TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY RISE WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT/...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT
WEDNESDAY. SO WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND/OR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BRECKENRIDGE TO DFW
TO EMORY. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MENTIONED ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM WEATHERFORD TO LAMPASAS. IF FREEZING RAIN OCCURS DURING
THE TIME FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY...WE DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING OVERNIGHT AND
THE CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID RAIN SHOULD MELT ANY MINIMAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES THAT NIGHT ARE COLDER
THAN THEY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AND ARE REALIZED IN THE
UPPER 20S...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AND POSSIBLY
MINOR IMPACTS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE NIGHT. IF
TEMPERATURES WERE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S...THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WOULD BE WEST ON I-35.

RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL LOOKING DECENT ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST
FINALLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AGAIN...THIS IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AS LIQUID RAIN. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE
MODELS REGARDING THE BEST TIMING FOR RAIN CHANCES ON THESE DAYS
AND WE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ABLE TO REFINE THEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ONE INTERESTING FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS
THIS SHORTWAVE GIVING US BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS A
RESULT. THE ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THIS SHORTWAVE AND THEREFORE HAS
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
THE AREA. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY
AND IT IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT COULD BE
PRETTY COLD AS WELL.

82/JLD



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  46  32  56  34  43 /  10   0   5   5   5
WACO, TX              44  27  59  33  46 /  30   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  30  51  33  44 /  10   0   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            46  27  56  28  42 /   5   0   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          45  26  54  28  43 /  10   0   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            47  32  56  35  44 /  10   0   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           43  29  55  34  45 /  10   0   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         43  31  56  35  46 /  30   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            43  27  61  34  46 /  40   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     47  29  57  28  40 /   5   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/05





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 600 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL SCATTER FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON ONCE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND A
PASSING UPPER TROUGH.

SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN WACO THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS.

A NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS. THE
WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY SUNSET AND REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

79

&&

.UPDATE...

HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE LIGHT RAIN
MAY BE OBSERVED SOON. ALSO EXPANDED POPS FURTHER NORTH BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND TRACKS OF ECHOES. LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY
BE REPORTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO MEXIA TO
ATHENS. NORTH OF THIS LINE THERE IS STILL DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAT NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME/SATURATED
BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND. EXPANDED THE RAIN
MENTION AS FAR NORTH AS A CISCO TO DFW TO EMORY LINE THIS MORNING.
WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION FOR LIGHT SLEET MIXING WITH THE RAIN IN
AN AREA WEST OF A CLEBURNE TO TEMPLE LINE. SOME LIGHT SLEET HAS
BEEN REPORTED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AND THE LATEST RAP RUN
INDICATES TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE BIT OF SLEET
TO MIX WITH THE RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. NO ACCUMULATIONS
OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SLEET.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST CONTINUES MOVING EAST AND WILL
PROVIDE LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES TODAY. THE RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS
LOOKED ACTIVE ALL NIGHT BUT A LEVEL OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS PREVENTED MUCH PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING
THE GROUND SO FAR. EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR HAS GIVEN THE APPEARANCE
THAT IT HAS BEEN RAINING ALMOST ALL NIGHT SOUTH OF A GATESVILLE TO
ATHENS LINE...NONE OF THE AUTOMATED WEATHER STATIONS HAVE
REPORTED ANY RAIN UNTIL AN HOUR AGO. HEARNE /KLHB/ FINALLY REPORTED
RAIN ON THEIR 3 AM HOURLY OB INDICATING THAT THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SATURATE DOWN. EXPECT OTHER
SITES IN THAT AREA TO BEGIN REPORTING LIGHT RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF A LAMPASAS TO
MIDLOTHIAN TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE TODAY WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES IN THE MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIQUID WITH NO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION MIXING...EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR POSSIBLY SOME SLEET MIXING IN.

CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON BUT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES CAN EXPECT A COOL DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER. WITH THE SKIES CLEARING TONIGHT AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THE RETURN OF SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER
ON MONDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

OVERALL...THE FORECAST FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH BUT DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER
WEATHER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. IT WILL
STEADILY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH BEHIND
IT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODIFIED A LITTLE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY DUE TO SOUTH AND EAST 850 MB WINDS ABOVE THE FRONT AND
WEST WINDS ABOVE 850 MB. HOWEVER...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL STILL BE A RATHER COLD PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S AND
40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

WE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS A LACK OF LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. WE
WILL BE IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
DOWN THE WEST COAST BUT IT WILL STILL BE TOO FAR WEST AT THAT TIME
TO SPREAD ANY LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER OUR AREA. ISENTROPIC CHARTS
ALSO INDICATE A LACK OF LIFT IN OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. WE
START TO NOTICE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. ANALYZING THIS
LAYER IN THE FORECASTED SOUNDINGS...WE SEE MOISTURE IN THE LAYER
WHERE THE LIFT IS OCCURRING...BUT THE LAYER BELOW 800 MB...AND IN
PARTICULAR BELOW 900 MB...IS DRY AND WOULD LIKELY EVAPORATE ANY
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. SO THE CHALLENGE NOW
IS WILL THE LOWER LAYER SATURATE ENOUGH FROM TOP-DOWN PROCESSES TO
ALLOW ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND? THIS APPEARS TO BE A
LOW CHANCE AS THE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO SATURATE THE LAYER ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THE RADAR MAY SHOW A LOT OF ECHOES ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER...WILL
LEAVE 20 POPS FOR DRIZZLE SOUTHWEST OF A CISCO TO HILLSBORO TO
FREESTONE LINE IN CASE SOME LIGHT RAIN DOES REACH THE GROUND.
DEPENDING ON THE TIME AND TEMPERATURES...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WEST OF I-35.

OUR MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES BUT ALSO SPREADS NORTH OVER MORE OF THE REGION AND
STRENGTHENS. THE MODELS ARE NOT OUTPUTTING ANY QPF DURING THIS 12
HOUR PERIOD FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY BECAUSE THEY
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY /AS
INDICATED ON THE FORECASTED SOUNDINGS/. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE DOWN AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES BUT THE QUESTION AND CHALLENGE IS WHEN WILL THAT OCCUR.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER
6 AM THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING
/TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY RISE WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT/...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT
WEDNESDAY. SO WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND/OR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BRECKENRIDGE TO DFW
TO EMORY. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MENTIONED ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM WEATHERFORD TO LAMPASAS. IF FREEZING RAIN OCCURS DURING
THE TIME FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY...WE DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING OVERNIGHT AND
THE CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID RAIN SHOULD MELT ANY MINIMAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES THAT NIGHT ARE COLDER
THAN THEY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AND ARE REALIZED IN THE
UPPER 20S...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AND POSSIBLY
MINOR IMPACTS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE NIGHT. IF
TEMPERATURES WERE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S...THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WOULD BE WEST ON I-35.

RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL LOOKING DECENT ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST
FINALLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AGAIN...THIS IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AS LIQUID RAIN. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE
MODELS REGARDING THE BEST TIMING FOR RAIN CHANCES ON THESE DAYS
AND WE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ABLE TO REFINE THEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ONE INTERESTING FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS
THIS SHORTWAVE GIVING US BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS A
RESULT. THE ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THIS SHORTWAVE AND THEREFORE HAS
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
THE AREA. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY
AND IT IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT COULD BE
PRETTY COLD AS WELL.

82/JLD



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  46  32  56  34  43 /  10   0   5   5   5
WACO, TX              44  27  59  33  46 /  40   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  30  51  33  44 /  10   0   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            46  27  56  28  42 /  10   0   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          45  26  54  28  43 /  10   0   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            47  32  56  35  44 /  20   0   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           43  29  55  34  45 /  20   0   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         43  31  56  35  46 /  40   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            43  27  61  34  46 /  50   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     47  29  57  28  40 /  10   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 537 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...

HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE LIGHT RAIN
MAY BE OBSERVED SOON. ALSO EXPANDED POPS FURTHER NORTH BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND TRACKS OF ECHOES. LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY
BE REPORTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO MEXIA TO
ATHENS. NORTH OF THIS LINE THERE IS STILL DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAT NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME/SATURATED
BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND. EXPANDED THE RAIN
MENTION AS FAR NORTH AS A CISCO TO DFW TO EMORY LINE THIS MORNING.
WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION FOR LIGHT SLEET MIXING WITH THE RAIN IN
AN AREA WEST OF A CLEBURNE TO TEMPLE LINE. SOME LIGHT SLEET HAS
BEEN REPORTED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AND THE LATEST RAP RUN
INDICATES TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE BIT OF SLEET
TO MIX WITH THE RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. NO ACCUMULATIONS
OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SLEET.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1204 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE METROPLEX THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MIDDAY SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LOTS OF
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION ORIGINATING AT AN
UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVEL...NEAR 22000FT. THIS PRECIP WILL BE FALLING
INTO DRY AIR BELOW IT...SO MOSTLY VIRGA IS EXPECTED IN THE
METROPLEX. HOWEVER SOME SATURATION WILL OCCUR WHICH WILL BRING
CIGS DOWN TO NEAR 10000FT BY SUNRISE. IF PRECIP INTENSITY IS
GREATER THAN EXPECTED OVER THE METROPLEX...WET BULB COOLING WOULD
RESULT IN THERMAL PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR SLEET OR SNOW. BUT THERE
IS CURRENTLY NO MODEL SHOWING THIS MUCH PRECIPITATION
AVAILABLE...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO BOTH COOL AND SATURATE
BEFORE ANY NON-LIQUID PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH TRENDS TO MONITOR FOR THIS VERY REMOTE POSSIBILITY.

FOR WACO...MVFR CIGS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT VFR
CIGS NEAR 050 SHOULD PREVAIL. MORE LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS
EXPECTED THERE...SO -RA IS IN THE TAF FROM 10Z TO 16Z. THE THERMAL
PROFILE LOOKS TOO WARM FOR ANY POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIP AT
WACO EVEN AFTER WET BULB COOLING. ANY RAIN WILL ALSO BE VERY
LIGHT...AND THUS NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY-MID AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT NORTH
WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING.

TR.92


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST CONTINUES MOVING EAST AND WILL
PROVIDE LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES TODAY. THE RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS
LOOKED ACTIVE ALL NIGHT BUT A LEVEL OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS PREVENTED MUCH PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING
THE GROUND SO FAR. EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR HAS GIVEN THE APPEARANCE
THAT IT HAS BEEN RAINING ALMOST ALL NIGHT SOUTH OF A GATESVILLE TO
ATHENS LINE...NONE OF THE AUTOMATED WEATHER STATIONS HAVE
REPORTED ANY RAIN UNTIL AN HOUR AGO. HEARNE /KLHB/ FINALLY REPORTED
RAIN ON THEIR 3 AM HOURLY OB INDICATING THAT THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SATURATE DOWN. EXPECT OTHER
SITES IN THAT AREA TO BEGIN REPORTING LIGHT RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF A LAMPASAS TO
MIDLOTHIAN TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE TODAY WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES IN THE MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIQUID WITH NO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION MIXING...EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR POSSIBLY SOME SLEET MIXING IN.

CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON BUT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES CAN EXPECT A COOL DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER. WITH THE SKIES CLEARING TONIGHT AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THE RETURN OF SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER
ON MONDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

OVERALL...THE FORECAST FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH BUT DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER
WEATHER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. IT WILL
STEADILY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH BEHIND
IT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODIFIED A LITTLE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY DUE TO SOUTH AND EAST 850 MB WINDS ABOVE THE FRONT AND
WEST WINDS ABOVE 850 MB. HOWEVER...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL STILL BE A RATHER COLD PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S AND
40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

WE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS A LACK OF LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. WE
WILL BE IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
DOWN THE WEST COAST BUT IT WILL STILL BE TOO FAR WEST AT THAT TIME
TO SPREAD ANY LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER OUR AREA. ISENTROPIC CHARTS
ALSO INDICATE A LACK OF LIFT IN OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. WE
START TO NOTICE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. ANALYZING THIS
LAYER IN THE FORECASTED SOUNDINGS...WE SEE MOISTURE IN THE LAYER
WHERE THE LIFT IS OCCURRING...BUT THE LAYER BELOW 800 MB...AND IN
PARTICULAR BELOW 900 MB...IS DRY AND WOULD LIKELY EVAPORATE ANY
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. SO THE CHALLENGE NOW
IS WILL THE LOWER LAYER SATURATE ENOUGH FROM TOP-DOWN PROCESSES TO
ALLOW ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND? THIS APPEARS TO BE A
LOW CHANCE AS THE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO SATURATE THE LAYER ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THE RADAR MAY SHOW A LOT OF ECHOES ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER...WILL
LEAVE 20 POPS FOR DRIZZLE SOUTHWEST OF A CISCO TO HILLSBORO TO
FREESTONE LINE IN CASE SOME LIGHT RAIN DOES REACH THE GROUND.
DEPENDING ON THE TIME AND TEMPERATURES...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WEST OF I-35.

OUR MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES BUT ALSO SPREADS NORTH OVER MORE OF THE REGION AND
STRENGTHENS. THE MODELS ARE NOT OUTPUTTING ANY QPF DURING THIS 12
HOUR PERIOD FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY BECAUSE THEY
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY /AS
INDICATED ON THE FORECASTED SOUNDINGS/. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE DOWN AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES BUT THE QUESTION AND CHALLENGE IS WHEN WILL THAT OCCUR.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER
6 AM THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING
/TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY RISE WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT/...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT
WEDNESDAY. SO WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND/OR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BRECKENRIDGE TO DFW
TO EMORY. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MENTIONED ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM WEATHERFORD TO LAMPASAS. IF FREEZING RAIN OCCURS DURING
THE TIME FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY...WE DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING OVERNIGHT AND
THE CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID RAIN SHOULD MELT ANY MINIMAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES THAT NIGHT ARE COLDER
THAN THEY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AND ARE REALIZED IN THE
UPPER 20S...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AND POSSIBLY
MINOR IMPACTS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE NIGHT. IF
TEMPERATURES WERE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S...THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WOULD BE WEST ON I-35.

RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL LOOKING DECENT ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST
FINALLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AGAIN...THIS IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AS LIQUID RAIN. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE
MODELS REGARDING THE BEST TIMING FOR RAIN CHANCES ON THESE DAYS
AND WE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ABLE TO REFINE THEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ONE INTERESTING FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS
THIS SHORTWAVE GIVING US BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS A
RESULT. THE ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THIS SHORTWAVE AND THEREFORE HAS
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
THE AREA. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY
AND IT IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT COULD BE
PRETTY COLD AS WELL.

82/JLD

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  46  32  56  34  43 /  10   0   5   5   5
WACO, TX              44  27  59  33  46 /  40   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  30  51  33  44 /  10   0   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            46  27  56  28  42 /  10   0   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          45  26  54  28  43 /  10   0   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            47  32  56  35  44 /  20   0   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           43  29  55  34  45 /  20   0   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         43  31  56  35  46 /  40   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            43  27  61  34  46 /  50   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     47  29  57  28  40 /  10   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

 200 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE FLORIDA PENINSULA UNDER
THE PROTECTIVE COVER OF A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
THE BAHAMAS. OUR DEEP LAYER FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND A POTENT TROUGH/SHORTWAVE FEATURE
EJECTING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN
MEXICO. FINALLY FURTHER UPSTREAM WE SEE A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF
ENERGY/JET STREAK DIVING DOWN OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK...OUT WEATHER WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK WEST INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF...AND SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE4 LOWER 80S INLAND
AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S AT THE COAST. ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW
IS OFF OF QUITE COOL SHELF WATERS. THE OBSERVATION AT CEDAR KEY IS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THESE TEMPS IN THE 60S ARE LIKELY CONFINED
TO ONLY A MILE OR TWO FROM THE WATER WITH TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY
WARMING WITH INLAND EXTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
REST OF TODAY...
THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING AND GENERALLY WEAK GRADIENT HAVE
ALLOWED A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SEA-BREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES A BIT COOLER
COMPARED WITH INLAND LOCATIONS AS THE FLOW IS OFF THE RELATIVELY
COOLER SHELF WATERS. THE FORECAST THE REST OF THE DAY IS FOR RAIN
FREE CONDITIONS DUE TO THE GENERALLY DRY COLUMN ALOFT AND NO
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT IN THE VICINITY. THERE IS A COLD FRONT
STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY THAT IS
BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/AL/GA...HOWEVER THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT ALLOW THIS FEATURE TO MOVE VERY FAR
THROUGH TONIGHT AND IT WILL NOT BE A CONCERN FOR OUR FORECAST TILL
AT LEAST TUESDAY.

TONIGHT...
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. HOWEVER...AS IT APPROACHES...THIS
ENERGY WILL BE QUICKLY SHEARING OUT AND DEAMPLIFYING. ABOUT THE ONLY
EFFECT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE TO BREAK DOWN/DEAMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TURN
OUR SYNOPTIC FLOW ALOFT MORE ZONAL IN NATURE. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
GET A LITTLE "KICK" EASTWARD WITH THE PASSING ENERGY...BUT SHOULD BE
STALLED NEAR APALACHEE BAY BY MONDAY MORNING. WE DO ANTICIPATE SOME
ADDITIONAL FOG/VISIBILITY ISSUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVERNIGHT...THE
SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE.
WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF WHICH SHOULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE. UNFORTUNATELY...MANY OF OUR AIRPORTS ARE IN LOWER/MORE FOG
PRONE LOCATIONS AND WILL PROB BE IMPACTED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EARLY MONDAY.

MONDAY...
MORE OF THE SAME. AREAS OF FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 13-15Z.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE DEAMPLIFIED...HOWEVER THE LOWER COLUMN WILL
STILL BE VERY WARM AND SUFFICIENT TO KEEP OUR TEMPS WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
AND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. COULD CERTAINLY SEE LOWER 80S
FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER ANTICIPATING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND HENCE TEMPS MAY
BE HELD DOWN IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY UP ACROSS APALACHEE BAY SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ATMOSPHERIC PUSH. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FOCUS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS UP TO LEVY
COUNTY...BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE
ONLY OTHER LOCATION THAT RUNS THE RISK OF A BRIEF AFTERNOON SHOWER
LOOKS TO BE AROUND HIGHLANDS COUNTY WHERE A FEW OF THE HIRES
EXPLICIT CONVECTION GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE FOCUSING A FEW CONVECTIVE
CELLS AFTER 18Z ASSOCIATED WITH A SEA-BREEZE MERGER. GIVEN THE
COLUMN CHARACTERISTICS FOR TOMORROW...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE SUPPORT
FOR A BRIEF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT AND WILL ADD A 20% POP FOR A SHOWER
OVER THE INLAND SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...EVEN THOUGH MOST SPOTS WILL
NOT SEE ANYTHING. EVEN UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY WE DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH
RAIN TO SERIOUSLY HAMPER ANY OUTDOOR EVENTS/ACTIVITIES. BEST RAIN
CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL STAY OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR
ZONES.

THE WEAK PASSING IMPULSE THAT FINALLY "SHOVES" THE FRONT DOWN INTO
THE FL PENINSULA IS ON TUESDAY...AND IT WILL BE AT THAT TIME THAT
LOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF US. HAVE A
GREAT SECOND HALF OF YOUR WEEKEND. GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE WARM
LATE DECEMBER WEATHER!

&&

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS ALOFT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUGHLY WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES WHILE A ROBUST ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REACHED IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THAT TRAILED A WEAK COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS SOUTH GA/NORTH FL INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

WITH TIME THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA
RANGE THEN DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE GULF AND CARIBBEAN RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE THE FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF FL AS IT SLOWLY DISSIPATES BY
WED AS THE SURFACE HIGH RELOCATES TO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS AND
BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.

DURING THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA...ALONG WITH
A SURFACE REFLECTION TRAILING A COLD FRONT THAT GETS STRUNG OUT
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
RIDGING...BOTH ALOFT AND SURFACE...PIVOTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AS
IT HANGS ON OVER MUCH OF BOTH FL AND THE GULF.

WHILE THE REST OF THE NATION WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE PATTERN THERE WILL
BE LIMITED IMPACT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FL. THE FIRST
FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY
TUE. THEN DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL AS THE SECOND FRONT STAYS
TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ENERGY TO COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
AND SUN. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY ABOVE NORMAL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY
MID-WEEK...AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. FOR THE END OF WEEK AND THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND SLOWLY WARM AS THE HIGH MOVES
BY TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WITH LOW LEVEL EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
SOUTHERLY.

&&

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS ARE LIGHT SOUTHERLY INLAND AND HAVE BECOME ONSHORE NEAR THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DISSIPATE AND BECOME LIGHT VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS SATURDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AT IFR OR LOWER DOES EXIST. MOST LIKELY SPOTS TO SEE
THE SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE KLAL...KPGD...KRSW AND KFMY.
ONCE THE FOG LIFTS BY 14-15Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND MONDAY WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVERRIDING THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE AND PRODUCING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
OTHER THAN AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ON TUESDAY.

FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND SOME OF THE FOG IS LIKELY TO BECOME DENSE.
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BECOME REQUIRED FOR SOME AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  65  77  66  77 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  66  80  66  81 /   0  10  20  10
GIF  64  80  64  78 /   0  10  10  20
SRQ  64  77  65  76 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  60  79  63  77 /   0  10  20  20
SPG  66  76  66  76 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MARINE...WYNN
LONG TERM...RUDE






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1131 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
236 AM CST

THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE BACK EDGE ALREADY
THOROUGH ROCKFORD. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR EXPECT SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS THIS MORNING EMANATING FROM A MODEST UPPER LOW IN
TEXAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A SEASONAL MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 30S OR SO. WE`LL HOLD A WEST WIND
WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE COOLER...THOUGH TODAY LOOKS TO BE
THE WARMEST FOR THE REST OF 2014. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SINK INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TONIGHT. LOCALLY...OUR
WINDS TURN NORTHERLY ALLOWING SOME OF THIS CONTINUE MOVING IN.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE
REGION PREVENTING A REAL COLD NIGHT...BUT STILL THE COLDEST WE/VE
SEEN IN A WHILE WITH LOWS INTO THE 20S.

BY MONDAY MORNING...A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING DOWN THE LAKE WILL
CONTINUE THE STREAM OF COLDER AIR. ADDITIONALLY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND MIX OF LOW AND MID
CLOUD...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS. NAM IS
STILL HINTING AT SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH
LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS DURING THE DAY ARE NOT SUPER IMPRESSIVE.

KMD

&&

.LONG TERM...
236 AM CST

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF COLD AIR COMES STREAMING IN.
THIS WILL ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE
NOT MUCH BETTER THAN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/LAKE INDUCED CAPE ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NW INDIANA.

AS THE ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS...WINDS WILL BACK
TO NW AND PUSH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EASTWARD. 850 TEMPS IN THE MINUS
TEENS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S IN SPITE OF
SOME CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING FEATURE THE COLDEST AIR MASS. NW
FLOW PERSISTS WITH MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE WSW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER WITH 20 BEING A STRETCH IN
PLACES.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL MODIFY AS THE DEEP COLD
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO BACK SOUTHWEST TO THE PACIFIC
GETS PINCHED OFF IN THE NORTH AND SHIFTS EAST OUR FOCUS THEN SHIFTS
TO A CUT OFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
GULF MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND THE ARCTIC VORTEX THAT AT THIS POINT
SETS UP NORTH OF HUDSON BAY. THE CALI LOW WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT EAST
AND NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE CLASH OF THE WARMER GULF AIR AND
ARCTIC AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION LOOKS TO RESULT IN A DYNAMIC
WINTER STORM SYSTEM. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE SOMEWHERE IN THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND
EXPECTING TO SET UP BEHIND IT DUE TO A REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR AND
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LOT HINGES ON THE INTERACTION WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM AS TO WHERE THIS SYSTEM HEADS...BUT MODELS TO THIS
POINT HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT ON THE TIME FRAME OF CONCERN BEING
LATER FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA. COLD AIR COMES RIGHT BACK IN
BEHIND IT.

KMD

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.

* MVFR CIGS MONDAY.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW PUSHING ONSHORE. GYY HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW SO HAVE A TEMPO FOR LOW END
MVFR VSBY...AND VSBY COULD BE LOWER. FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT MDW
AND ORD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SET UP AND HOW
FAR INLAND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL FALL. MVFR CIGS ALSO MOVE IN OFF
OF THE LAKE AND IMPACT THE EASTERN TERMINALS...AND HAVE MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS REMAINING EAST OF DPA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CIGS AT MDW...ORD...AND GYY.

JEE


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES
OTHERWISE VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR.

IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
150 AM CST

MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE SOME TODAY AND THEN VEER MORE
NORTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN UP
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE FURTHER TO GALES WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTH INTO HUDSON BAY TIGHTENING UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
ARCTIC AIR FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. WINDS LOOK TO SUBSIDE
LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY RAMPING UP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY APPROACHES THE
REGION THOUGH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THAT SYSTEM.

IZZI

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1058 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014
High pressure settling into the FA this morning, but llvl clouds
trapped under the overnight inversion are slow to erode. NW of
I-55 in Central Illinois is only covered with cirrus this
morning...while SE Illinois has stratus under 2000 ft. Cold arctic
air settling into the region behind yesterdays cold front
resulting in a chilly morning. Temperatures on track with only a
few changes to the hourlys... and no large updates are
anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

Main short-term challenge will be timing of the clearing trend
today. 08z/2am IR satellite imagery shows low clouds covering much
of central Illinois, except across the far northern KILX CWA from
Peoria northward where clouds have eroded. The 06z NAM 1000-850mb RH
field has a good handle on the current cloud cover, so have
generally followed its solution for sky cover today.  End result
will be clearing skies along the I-74 corridor by mid to late
morning, with clouds lingering into the afternoon further south.
Skies will become mostly clear across the board by late afternoon as
high pressure builds in from the west.  High temperatures will be
near normal for this time of year in the middle to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

Quiet weather is expected for the next several days before a storm
system gradually approaches from the southwest by the end of the
week.  High pressure will control the weather across central
Illinois on Monday, resulting in cool/dry conditions with highs in
the 30s. Meanwhile, a significant chunk of cold air currently in
place across central/western Canada will sink southward into the
central CONUS by the middle of the week.  Models have been hinting
at some light snow/flurries as CAA increases Monday night into
Tuesday, with the NAM being more aggressive with potential QPF.  NAM
time-height cross-sections reveal stronger lift within a deeper
moist layer than the GFS indicates.  Think the low-level moisture
may be a bit overdone on the NAM, so am leaning toward the GFS
solution here.  Even with drier air below 850mb, think lift will be
strong enough to warrant mention of a few flurries Monday night and
perhaps even into Tuesday morning before moisture profile thins and
high pressure builds into the region.  Heart of the cold airmass
will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday, when overnight lows dip
into the single digits and teens and highs only reach the lower to
middle 20s.

Once high slowly begins to shift eastward, attention turns to a
developing southern-stream storm system associated with a cut-off
upper low over the Desert Southwest.  Models are still displaying
a typical spread of solutions that far out, but confidence is
growing that a precipitation event will impact central Illinois by
the end of the week.  Both the GFS and ECMWF show surface low
pressure developing over the Texas panhandle by Friday evening, then
lifting northeastward into the Great Lakes on Saturday.  While their
tracks are not in perfect agreement, a N/NW trend is becoming
apparent.  GFS takes the low west of the CWA to near Moline by 12z
Sat, while the ECMWF tracks the low to near Champaign.  Both tracks
are further N/NW than previous runs, which suggests precip may be
more in the form of rain or a rain/snow mix across the area than
previously thought.  Based on GFS forecast soundings, if precip is
able to spread northward into the initially cold/dry airmass Friday
morning, light snow will be the primary precip type.  As temps warm
into the middle to upper 30s, the snow will likely mix with rain
across much of the area by Friday afternoon.  Precip will likely
remain quite light during the day Friday, with widespread precip
holding off until Friday night when airmass saturates and stronger
lift arrives.  At this point, will carry rain along/south of
I-70...a rain/snow mix across the middle of the CWA...and snow
along/north of a Rushville to Bloomington line Friday night into
Saturday.  The track of the system will likely change with
successive model runs, so precip type and any potential snow
accumulations still remain uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

Main concern across the central Illinois terminals through the 12Z
TAF valid time regards the disposition of the MVFR CIGS today as
high pressure builds into the area. Once the low clouds clear out,
VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the period.
The low cloud clearing trends today are tough to pinpoint as the
back edge of the cloud deck is far from smooth. Actually, the back
edge of the cloud deck is ragged, which should allow for skies to
go back/forth between BKN/OVC and SCT for a few hours before
finally clearing. The recent progression of the low clouds has
become difficult to track on satellite imagery due to a cirrus
shield moving over top of the low clouds. However, as best as I
can tell, the HRRR has a pretty good handle on the trends, and
will lean on it for clearing trends this morning into early
afternoon. Northwest winds will continue to diminish in speed as a
weak area of high pressure approaches today, eventually leading to
light/variable winds tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1216 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  A DRY SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND TUESDAY. IN THE
LONG TERM AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY AND COLD
WEATHER. HOWEVER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND ACROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION WAS ENDING RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
WILL PRETTY MUCH BE DONE BY FORECAST RELEASE TIME. SOME SITES ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MAY SEE A LITTLE DRIZZLE PRIOR TO 7AM.

MAIN ISSUES TODAY WILL BE HOW LONG CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AND
TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING LINE ACROSS NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW HOLES FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
THE RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM MIDDAY ON.  EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS MOST OF TODAY AS THIS WILL BE LAST AREA TO CLEAR
OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO
AROUND 40 FAR SOUTH WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO OUR REGION.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
INDICATE HIGHS SHOULD BE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
TO AROUND 40 FAR SOUTH WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS INDIANA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.
THE NAM SHOWS SOME QPF ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
ALL OTHER MODELS ARE DRY.  ALL MODELS INDICATE SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  AS A COMPROMISE
WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ON TO THE EAST TUESDAY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE AROUND -5 TO -8 MONDAY WILL COOL TO -10
TO -13 CELSIUS TUESDAY. THUS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COLDER TUESDAY AND EVEN COLDER ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE ARCTIC AIR
PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  IN MOST CASES MOS SEEMS TO TO
HANDLING THIS OK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD.  FIRST...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING BETTER CONSISTENCY IN
THE TRACK COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.  NOW THE GFS AND EURO ARE BOTH ON
BOARD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND UP INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA.  LATEST INITIALIZATION WAS A TAD FAST WITH BRINGING PRECIP
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
NIGHT.  NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING THAT FAST...SO
REMOVED MENTION OF ANY PRECIP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE MISSOURI VALLEY.  THE LIKELY POPS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT THAT REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS TRENDING TOWARD MATCH
NICELY.  SO...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS TO POPS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE IS STILL LOW UNTIL THE EXACT
TRACK BECOMES SOLIDIFIED...BUT IT/S LOOKING LIKE SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN/SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE
REMAINING TWO-THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1213 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ABOUT 4-5 HOURS LONGER THAN
EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR SITE KHUF WHICH HAS ALREADY SAW SOME
SCATTERING OUT IN THE LOW LEVELS. THEN ALL SITES IMPROVING TO VFR
CATEGORY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. (EARLY EVENING FOR SITE KBMG WHICH
IS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.) AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT FURTHER LATE IN TAF PERIOD AND
REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND LIGHT AT 2 TO
6 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 157 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

THE CONTINUOUS RAINFALL CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH.
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS
NEARLY STALLED OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF EAST KENTUCKY.
CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR MOSAIC AND OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
A GRADUAL EASTWARD TREND NOW AND MUCH OF THE BLUEGRASS AREA WILL SEE
RAIN TAPERING OFF A BIT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THIS AND THE
GRADUAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE RAINFALL. THE GENERAL
CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS THE EVER SO SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AT THIS POINT...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS BUT MAY RESULT IN A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE EAST TOMORROW NIGHT. A
NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING FEATURE THE LARGE AREA OF
RAIN MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE COLD FRONT NOW POSITIONED
IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS SLOWED WITH A LARGE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
AHEAD AND BEHIND OF THIS FRONT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. UPSTREAM...SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE
MS VALLEY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
WILL EXPECT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS CURRENT
TREND OF THINKING IS ALONG WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL ALLOW
THE CURRENT ZFP TO RIDE THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MAINLY STEADY SO HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE CURRENT OBS AND SENT
THE GRIDS TOT HE NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
AS WELL. UPDATE CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND
ROUND OF RAIN A BIT LATER TODAY. NAM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TAKING
ALL THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH SEEM TO
HANG ON TO THE IDEA OF A SECOND WAVE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
RAIN LINGERING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...MAINLY OUR
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER MOST IF NOT
ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR
TENDS TO SUPPORT THE HRRR AS ECHOS ARE FILLING IN AND INTENSIFYING
ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. UPDATE
WILL ENTAIL ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POP GRIDS FOR RECENT RADAR
TRENDS AND AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. ENERGY FROM
PLAINS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH CORRESPONDING SFC LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A SFC
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...ROUGHLY STRETCHING FROM EAST CENTRAL OHIO
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN TN...HAVING PASSED THOUGH CVG AND BWG. THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN BEING PRODUCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE WILL CARRY PRECIP EASTWARD WITH IT THROUGH THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE LULL IN RAIN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
BUT LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN RATHER LIGHT OVERALL...AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH IN OUR SOUTHERN
MOST COUNTIES THUS FAR AND MUCH SMALLER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT TO
SEE ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS THE
SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THESE CHANCES WILL DROP AS WE MOVE
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. THE PREVIOUS NAM DID TRY
TO BRING MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION BUT THE 06Z RUN BACKED OFF ON
THIS ONCE AGAIN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN A COLDER
AIR MASS AND WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
COLDER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR WEDNESDAY
AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THIS
SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
SOME RETURN FLOW AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
RETURN TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THEN WE START TO FOCUS ON
ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THURSDAY NIGHT A
CLOSED LOW WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGION. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN EJECTING EAST AND WILL AID IN DEVELOPING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ARKLATEX AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY. INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIP
MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BRING SNOW TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...HOWEVER AS
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EASTERN KY GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR WE WILL
SEE A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FRIDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION GOING INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION MAKING FOR A
WINDY DAY ACROSS EASTERN KY. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST HIGHEST
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR
MAXIMUM MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND CONTINUOUS STREAMING
MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE IFR CEILINGS AND MANY LOCATIONS BELOW FIELD MINS AT MANY OF
THE TAF SITES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. RAIN AND FOG WILL HINDER VISIBILITY AS WELL WITH TAF SITES
HAVING VARYING VALUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1227 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING FEATURE THE LARGE AREA OF
RAIN MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE COLD FRONT NOW POSITIONED
IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS SLOWED WITH A LARGE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
AHEAD AND BEHIND OF THIS FRONT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. UPSTREAM...SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE
MS VALLEY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
WILL EXPECT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS CURRENT
TREND OF THINKING IS ALONG WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL ALLOW
THE CURRENT ZFP TO RIDE THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MAINLY STEADY SO HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE CURRENT OBS AND SENT
THE GRIDS TOT HE NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
AS WELL. UPDATE CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND
ROUND OF RAIN A BIT LATER TODAY. NAM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TAKING
ALL THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH SEEM TO
HANG ON TO THE IDEA OF A SECOND WAVE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
RAIN LINGERING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...MAINLY OUR
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER MOST IF NOT
ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR
TENDS TO SUPPORT THE HRRR AS ECHOS ARE FILLING IN AND INTENSIFYING
ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. UPDATE
WILL ENTAIL ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POP GRIDS FOR RECENT RADAR
TRENDS AND AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. ENERGY FROM
PLAINS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH CORRESPONDING SFC LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A SFC
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...ROUGHLY STRETCHING FROM EAST CENTRAL OHIO
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN TN...HAVING PASSED THOUGH CVG AND BWG. THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN BEING PRODUCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE WILL CARRY PRECIP EASTWARD WITH IT THROUGH THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE LULL IN RAIN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
BUT LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN RATHER LIGHT OVERALL...AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH IN OUR SOUTHERN
MOST COUNTIES THUS FAR AND MUCH SMALLER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT TO
SEE ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS THE
SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THESE CHANCES WILL DROP AS WE MOVE
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. THE PREVIOUS NAM DID TRY
TO BRING MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION BUT THE 06Z RUN BACKED OFF ON
THIS ONCE AGAIN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN A COLDER
AIR MASS AND WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
COLDER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR WEDNESDAY
AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THIS
SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
SOME RETURN FLOW AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
RETURN TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THEN WE START TO FOCUS ON
ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THURSDAY NIGHT A
CLOSED LOW WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGION. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN EJECTING EAST AND WILL AID IN DEVELOPING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ARKLATEX AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY. INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIP
MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BRING SNOW TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...HOWEVER AS
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EASTERN KY GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR WE WILL
SEE A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FRIDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION GOING INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION MAKING FOR A
WINDY DAY ACROSS EASTERN KY. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST HIGHEST
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR
MAXIMUM MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND CONTINUOUS STREAMING
MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE IFR CEILINGS AND MANY LOCATIONS BELOW FIELD MINS AT MANY OF
THE TAF SITES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. RAIN AND FOG WILL HINDER VISIBILITY AS WELL WITH TAF SITES
HAVING VARYING VALUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 435 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

PERSISTENT LIGHT AND FLUFFY LAKE EFFECT IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A SURFACE TROUGH SWEPT SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND HAS SWITCHED WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
AND BROUGHT MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS AT THIS TIME
ON THE RAP ANALYSIS ARE -18C OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS COLD AIR...AIDED BY MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA...LED TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN
THE WEST AND NOW NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE
THERE WERE SOME STRONGER SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ASSISTED BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND FROM THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THEY HAVE
NOW TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A MULTIBAND LES LOOK ON SATELLITE OVER
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. USING THE EXPERIMENTAL SSEC SATELLITE
DERIVED SNOWFALL RATES...IT APPEARS THAT SOME AREAS ARE SEEING
TRANSIENT BANDS OF 0.5 IN/HR RATES AND THAT SEEMS TO MATCH UP WITH
VISIBILITY REPORTS AT KCMX. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE STARTING TO
PULL OUT OF THAT AREA...HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME WEAKENING OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...HELPED BY INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING
BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE 12Z KINL SOUNDING HAD INVERSION HEIGHTS
AROUND 900MB OR 3KFT...BUT WITH SOME LAKE MODIFICATION THEY SHOULD
BE IN THE 4-5KFT RANGE. OVER THE EAST...THERE WAS A STRONGER BAND
BETWEEN MUNISING AND MINER/S CASTLE THIS MORNING THAT LIKELY
PRODUCED A COUPLE-FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THIS BAND WAS AIDED BY THE
CONVERGENT FLOW OFF MARQUETTE COUNTY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
BUT NOW THAT THE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN...THE BAND HAS BECOME MUDDLED. WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
TRANSITIONING TO MULTIBAND OVER THE EASTERN LAKE...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIMITED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA FROM A STRONG HIGH IN NORTHWEST CANADA. WITH 875MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -21C...EXPECT HIGH POP LOW QPF LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BACKING WINDS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NORTHWEST WINDS
FOR MONDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR THE LAKE EFFECT TO WORK WITH LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING (SEEN ON THE 12Z CWPL SOUNDING). BUT THE RIDGE
MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. FOR TONIGHT
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...HAVE THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS RECEIVING
1-3 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW EVERY 12 HOURS...LARGELY HELPED BY THE
ENTIRE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ. WITH THE LONGER FETCH AND IN TURN
LAKE MODIFICATION...HAVE A LITTLE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST BUT
STILL ONLY LOCALIZED 4 INCH AMOUNTS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF
LOW LEVEL DRYING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH COULD WEAKEN THE LAKE
EFFECT SOME AND HAVE LOWERED THE POPS A LITTLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGIMES...LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR...HAVE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.
OTHERWISE...UNDER THE CLOUDS WOULD EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS OR LOWER TEENS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

TODAYS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT LONG TERM FCST PRODUCED
OVER THE LAST 3 DAYS. SO...FCST CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM TODAY WILL
BE MINOR. BIGGEST FCST CHALLENGE WILL OCCUR AT THE END OF THE
WEEK/WEEKEND. MORE ON THAT LATER. THE LONG ADVERTISED SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS NAMERICA IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY AS A STRONG
RIDGE IS BUILDING N THRU ALASKA. 12Z RAOBS SHOW 12HR 500MB HEIGHT
RISES OF 130-150M IN NRN ALASKA/ADJACENT FAR NW CANADA...AND HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE NOW 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE LONG TERM LATE DEC
AVG. 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE STILL FCST TO PEAK AT 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS LATER TODAY THRU EARLY WED. OF COURSE...THE DOWNSTREAM
RESPONSE WILL BE A DEVELOPING CNTRL/ERN NAMERICA TROF. THIS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE BUILDUP AND EXPANSION OF ARCTIC AIR
ACROSS CANADA THAT WILL SPILL S INTO THE CONUS...SIMILAR TO THE
PATTERN OBSERVED MOST OF LAST WINTER AND LAST MONTH. SO...AFTER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE LAST 3
WEEKS...A BLO NORMAL TEMP REGIME WILL TAKE HOLD ON MON AND CONTINUE
THRU AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS...THOUGH A DAY OR TWO MAY SEE TEMPS
CLOSE TO NORMAL DURING THAT TIME. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHILL COULD OCCUR IN THE 7-10 DAY TIME FRAME.
FARTHER OUT TO DAY 16...MAJORITY OF GEM ENSEMBLES STILL INDICATE
DEAMPLIFICATION AND A TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL TEMPS BY MID JAN.
CFSV2 GOES FURTHER TO BRING A RETURN OF A WARM PATTERN/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS FOR MID/LATE JAN. WE`LL SEE. AS FOR PCPN...PCPN THIS WEEK WILL
BE CONFINED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR AS COLD NW FLOW PREVAILS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS...THERE CONTINUE TO BE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRES
SYSTEM COULD TRACK FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND. WHILE THIS STILL SEEMS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY BASED ON
ALL AVBL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE (AT LEAST AS FAR AS BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT PCPN INTO UPPER MI)...THERE ARE SUBTLE MULTI-MODEL
TRENDS SUPPORTING AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
-SN...INCLUDING LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A TIME FRAME TO MONITOR IN THE
COMING DAYS.

BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS INITIAL
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON TUE WHEN 850MB
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -23C. THIS WILL RESULT IN TUE LIKELY BEING
THE COLDEST DAY THIS WEEK FOR MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS IN GENERAL WILL
BE IN THE 5 TO 15F RANGE...THOUGH OVER THE FAR W AROUND KIWD...TEMPS
MAY ONLY RISE TO JUST ABOVE 0F. MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT...SUBZERO
MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE IN THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS/SNOW. TUE NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST WITH TEMPS IN THE
INTERIOR W HALF SLIPPING TO -10F OR LWR. SUBZERO TEMPS SHOULD COVER
A WIDER AREA ON TUE NIGHT AS WELL SINCE WINDS BACKING MORE WESTERLY
WILL RESULT IN LESS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SHSN COVERAGE OVER UPPER MI.
COMBINED WITH SOME INCREASE IN WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO
THE -15 TO -25F RANGE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WITH SUCH COLD
AIR...NMRS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SNOW BELTS FAVORED BY
NW TO W WINDS. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT 4-5KFT...SO
LES WILL OVERALL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE (1-4IN/12HRS). HOWEVER...WHERE
FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE IS LONGEST...ALLOWING MOST LAKE MODERATION...
DGZ WILL DOMINATE THE CONVECTIVE LAYER...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADVY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IN PARTICULAR WHERE LONGER FETCH AND
LOCALIZED ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WORK TOGETHER. SIMILAR TO THE LAST
FEW DAYS OF MODEL RUNS...SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUE WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON INCREASING MOISTURE DEPTH/RAISING
INVERSION HEIGHTS (FOR ROUGHLY 6HRS)...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
LES COVERAGE/INTENSITY FOR A TIME. SO...DAYLIGHT HRS ON TUE PROBABLY
OFFER THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LES TO PRODUCE ADVY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE SNOW BELTS FAVORED BY NW WINDS.

ON NEW YEARS EVE DAY...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WSW OR EVEN
SW IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU MANITOBA
INTO NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL CAUSE LES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OF UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...UP AT 850MB...WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE W. SO...LES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND LOW PRES OVER
HUDSON BAY WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EXPOSED KEWEENAW WHERE 950MB WINDS ARE FCST AT 35-40KT. BLSN MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE THERE ON NEW YEARS EVE...ESPECIALLY IF SHSN COVERAGE
REMAINS NMRS OR GREATER.

NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AFORMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROF
SWINGING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON
NEW YEARS DAY...ENHANCING LES FOR A TIME AND PROBABLY BRINGING AT
ISOLD/SCT -SHSN TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

LES WILL CONTINUE ON INTO FRI UNDER COLD AIR MASS...BUT THERE IS
INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL BACK FRI AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE SLIPS E OF THE AREA AND PRES FALLS SPREAD OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
THE BACKING WINDS AND RESULTING DEVELOPING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR A BAND OF -SN TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN PLAINS
AND THEN STREAK E INTO THE UPPER LAKES...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRI
NIGHT.

ON INTO SAT...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL BE OVER THE SW STATES MIDWEEK. THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
ON THE NW SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN TAKING THAT ENERGY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. FOR A NUMBER OF RUNS...IT HAS TRACKED A SFC LOW NE...
ROUGHLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF LWR MI. THE 00Z ECMWF STARTED TO TREND
SLIGHTLY N AND W WITH TRACK...BUT THE 12Z RUN IS MUCH MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE LOW...A RESULT OF THE NE PACIFIC RIDGE BEING
LESS PRONOUNCED WHICH LEADS TO FLATTER DOWNSTREAM FLOW. THERE A FEW
MORE GEM ENSEMBLES SIMILAR TO THE GFS TODAY...BUT THEY ARE STILL A
DEFINITE MINORITY. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE STRUCTURE/AMPLITUDE OF
THE NE PACIFIC RIDGE...BUT AT THIS POINT...GIVEN TODAYS AND RECENT
DAYS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...THE PROBABILITY IS STILL VERY LOW FOR
THE SFC LOW TO TRACK FAR ENOUGH N AND W TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO
THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...AIDED BY NRN STREAM ENERGY...THERE SHOULD
BE SOME -SN ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON SAT ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. ARCTIC AIR WILL FLOW BACK INTO
THE UPPER LAKES ON SUN...RENEWING LES IN AREAS FAVORED BY NW WINDS.
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON COULD FOLLOW FOR MON/TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACORSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN IS LEADING TO
A BRIEF BAND OF LIGHT TO ALMOST MODERATE SNOW NEARING KSAW AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL AFFECT THE SITE FOR THE FIRST
30-45 MINUTES AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL BE THE MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OVERALL...WITH A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 4KFT ABOVE THE
SURFACE...DON/T EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME TOO STRONG AND
HAVE KEPT VISIBILITIES IN THE MVFR TO VFR RANGE AT KCMX/KIWD. LOW
LEVEL WINDS DO LOOK TO BACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL THEN SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND DAYBREAK. THUS...HAVE KEPT VSBYS A LITTLE HIGHER AT KIWD
WITH THOSE BACKING WINDS. ONCE THAT WEAK TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...WOULD THINK THAT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WOULD MOVE BACK INTO
THE SITE. OTHERWISE...WITH THE UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR
KSAW...EXPECT THEM TO TRANSITION TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD (COULD SEE CEILINGS NEAR MVFR TOMORROW
MORNING BEHIND THE TROUGH).
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT SLID SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING CONTINUES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25KTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE AREA BEING BETWEEN A
STRONG HIGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND A LOW NEAR
HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WESTERLY GALES OF 35-40KTS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE STRONGER WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 216 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

PERSISTENT LIGHT AND FLUFFY LAKE EFFECT IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A SURFACE TROUGH SWEPT SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND HAS SWITCHED WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
AND BROUGHT MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS AT THIS TIME
ON THE RAP ANALYSIS ARE -18C OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS COLD AIR...AIDED BY MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA...LED TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN
THE WEST AND NOW NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE
THERE WERE SOME STRONGER SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ASSISTED BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND FROM THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THEY HAVE
NOW TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A MULTIBAND LES LOOK ON SATELLITE OVER
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. USING THE EXPERIMENTAL SSEC SATELLITE
DERIVED SNOWFALL RATES...IT APPEARS THAT SOME AREAS ARE SEEING
TRANSIENT BANDS OF 0.5 IN/HR RATES AND THAT SEEMS TO MATCH UP WITH
VISIBILITY REPORTS AT KCMX. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE STARTING TO
PULL OUT OF THAT AREA...HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME WEAKENING OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...HELPED BY INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING
BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE 12Z KINL SOUNDING HAD INVERSION HEIGHTS
AROUND 900MB OR 3KFT...BUT WITH SOME LAKE MODIFICATION THEY SHOULD
BE IN THE 4-5KFT RANGE. OVER THE EAST...THERE WAS A STRONGER BAND
BETWEEN MUNISING AND MINER/S CASTLE THIS MORNING THAT LIKELY
PRODUCED A COUPLE-FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THIS BAND WAS AIDED BY THE
CONVERGENT FLOW OFF MARQUETTE COUNTY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
BUT NOW THAT THE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN...THE BAND HAS BECOME MUDDLED. WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
TRANSITIONING TO MULTIBAND OVER THE EASTERN LAKE...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIMITED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA FROM A STRONG HIGH IN NORTHWEST CANADA. WITH 875MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -21C...EXPECT HIGH POP LOW QPF LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BACKING WINDS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NORTHWEST WINDS
FOR MONDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR THE LAKE EFFECT TO WORK WITH LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING (SEEN ON THE 12Z CWPL SOUNDING). BUT THE RIDGE
MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. FOR TONIGHT
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...HAVE THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS RECEIVING
1-3 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW EVERY 12 HOURS...LARGELY HELPED BY THE
ENTIRE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ. WITH THE LONGER FETCH AND IN TURN
LAKE MODIFICATION...HAVE A LITTLE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST BUT
STILL ONLY LOCALIZED 4 INCH AMOUNTS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF
LOW LEVEL DRYING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH COULD WEAKEN THE LAKE
EFFECT SOME AND HAVE LOWERED THE POPS A LITTLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGIMES...LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR...HAVE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.
OTHERWISE...UNDER THE CLOUDS WOULD EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS OR LOWER TEENS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY COLD CONDITIONS WITH PERSISTENT LES.

ON MONDAY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS ALL BUT FL...STRETCHING
FROM FAR N CANADA THROUGH QUEBEC...AND A SECONDARY LOW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW. LOOK FOR PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES KEEPING OFF AND ON LES GOING OVER W UPPER MI...AND
MAINLY E OF MUNISING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE FIRST OF MANY SHORTWAVES WILL BE IMPACTING OUR LOCAL WEATHER
MONDAY...PUSHING ACROSS MN AND N MN MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND SINKING
ACROSS UPPER MI LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME
850MB TEMPS WILL ALSO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES C TOO FROM AN
AVERAGE -18 TO -20.

KEEPING THE THEME GOING...THE BACK EDGE OF THE 500MB TROUGH WILL
TIGHTEN TO OUR NW ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE N CANADIAN TROUGH
SINKING/EXTENDING ACROSS E HUDSON BAY. THIS SHOULD BASICALLY ACT TO
DOUBLE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW PLACES FAVORED BY THE NW WINDS...LIKE CMX
WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE RECEIVED EVERY 6HRS. 850MB TEMPS WILL COOL
ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES C TO AROUND -22 BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE
A COLD DAY /SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS/...FOLLOWED BY A COLD NIGHT.
WITH SOME CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED S CENTRAL AND ALONG THE WI BORDER
AS SFC WINDS BECOME MORE OUT OF THE W AND SW...-10C IS WELL WITHIN
REACH.

BRIEF WAA IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY /NEW YEAR/S EVE/...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS PUSHING OFF MUCH OF THE S SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON WSW
WINDS. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND -17C...OR EVEN WARMER
AROUND -14C OFF THE 28/00Z GFS. THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES ON
THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF A SHORTWAVE THAT THE 27/00Z ECMWF HAS DIGGING
ACROSS S LOWER MI BY 00Z THURSDAY...RESULTING IN MORE CLOUD
COVER/LES SNOW AND COOLER CONDITIONS. THE GFS IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE...KEEPING MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY N OF THE CWA. WILL GO WITH
A BLENDED/CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 45-60KT 850MB WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...STRONGEST 18Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY. OTHER THAN STRONG
WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF THE MORE EXPOSED KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...IT IS UNKNOWN HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT
TO THE SFC. ALSO DURING THIS TIME THE 500MB LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW
WILL HAVE SUNK ACROSS S CANADA...AND THE N LOW WILL HAVE SLID ACROSS
MUCH OF HUDSON BAY.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOK A BIT MORE INTERESTING. THE GFS INDICATES
THAT WE LOSE THE STRONG INVERSION THAT/S BASICALLY BEEN SET UP
800-850MB....AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN A BROAD DGZ STRETCHING FROM
NEARLY 900-600MB. WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE 500MB LOW IN THE SW PUSHING ACROSS THE S PLAINS
AND NUDGING A SFC LOW UP THE MS VALLEY...TO AROUND CENTRAL/S LOWER
MI BY 18Z SATURDAY...THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENING ACROSS S ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 28/00Z HAS COME IN STRONGER AND FARTHER E
WITH THE LOW COMPARED TO THE GFS. INCREASED POPS A BUT FRIDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
OTHERWISE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACORSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN IS LEADING TO
A BRIEF BAND OF LIGHT TO ALMOST MODERATE SNOW NEARING KSAW AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL AFFECT THE SITE FOR THE FIRST
30-45 MINUTES AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL BE THE MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OVERALL...WITH A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 4KFT ABOVE THE
SURFACE...DON/T EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME TOO STRONG AND
HAVE KEPT VISIBILITIES IN THE MVFR TO VFR RANGE AT KCMX/KIWD. LOW
LEVEL WINDS DO LOOK TO BACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL THEN SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND DAYBREAK. THUS...HAVE KEPT VSBYS A LITTLE HIGHER AT KIWD
WITH THOSE BACKING WINDS. ONCE THAT WEAK TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...WOULD THINK THAT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WOULD MOVE BACK INTO
THE SITE. OTHERWISE...WITH THE UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR
KSAW...EXPECT THEM TO TRANSITION TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD (COULD SEE CEILINGS NEAR MVFR TOMORROW
MORNING BEHIND THE TROUGH).
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT SLID SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING CONTINUES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25KTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE AREA BEING BETWEEN A
STRONG HIGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND A LOW NEAR
HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WESTERLY GALES OF 35-40KTS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE STRONGER WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 212 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL RETURN THE AREA TO MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEK. AS THIS AIR CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES IT WILL PICK UP SOME MOISTURE...SO A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SOLID LL CLD DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO SW ONTARIO DESPITE THE NW
FLOW OF DRIER AIR. XPCTY CONTD SLOW IMPRMT OVER NGT AS INCRSGLY
DRIER AIR MVES INTO THE AREA. HRRR AND ARW DVLP SOME LGT LE LATE
TNGT AS THE WLY DVLPS A SINGLE BAND INTO NRN ONEIDA AND PERHAPS
XTRM NRN ONONDAGA. WITH MRGNL TEMPS AND WEAK LE XPCT ONLY TRACE
AMTS. DESPITE THE COND CAA...OVRNGT TEMPS STILL WILL END UP ABV
NRML FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

CONTD WEAK LE EVENT PSBL WITH A SOMEWHAT SHEARED WNW FLOW AND MRGNL
INSTABILITY. ISLTD LGT SNOW SHWRS PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MON
AS HTG ADDS A BIT OF INSTBILITY OVER THE BARE GND. NAM FCST A WEAK
SFC LOW TO DVLP OVRNGT MON WHICH REALLY JUST DISRUPTS THE BNDRY
LYR FLOW WITHOUT ENHANCING THE LE.

LTL CHG FOR TUE OTR THAN SLGTLY COLDER AIR IN PLACE AND PERHAPS A
BIT BETTER ALIGNED LL FLOW. ALSO...HINT OF A SHRT WV MAY ENHANCE
THE INSTABILITY LATE IN THE DAY. FLOW CONTS TO FAVOR ANY ACTIVITY
TO BE OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.

BEST CHANCE FOR LE WILL BE WED AS THE CONTD CAA HAS BROUGHT THE
SNDG DEEPER INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND FLOW BECOMES BETTER
ALIGNED. WRKG AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS WILL BE A CONSTANTLY CHGG
MEAN FLOW AS A WV PASSES...AND YET ANOTHER APRCHS KICKING ANY BAND
THAT DVLPS NORTH OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LARGE SCALE TROF ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CANADA. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN NY INTO THURSDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL
SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO NY/PA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION
MAY ARRIVE AS LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER,
ONCE THE WARM AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 40S AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR LAKE EFFECT
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 2500 TO 4000 FEET, WITH
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS.

SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY MORNING. THERE EXIST MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS
TRIES TO CLEAR SKIES OUT, WHEREAS NAM KEEPS MOISTURE LOCKED IN.
LEANING TOWARD GFS AT THE MOMENT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE/WED/THU...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR
KRME/KSYR...DUE TO LAKE EFFECT -SHSN. OTRWS...VFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 330 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS FEARED CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA. STILL SEEING LOW
CIGS IN NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SWATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE
AS WELL. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WIN OUT
OVERNIGHT AND WILL STILL TRY TO TAKE THE SW HALF OF THE AREA TO
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER NW PA TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS A WHILE LONGER. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DIP TO
NEG 9 OR SO BY MORNING SO WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL 20 POP FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND REALISTICALLY PROBABLY
NOT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES. THE EVENING CREW WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TEMPS...IF THE CLOUDS LINGER...FORECAST LOWS WILL NEED TO BE
NUDGED UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ALL IN ALL IT SHOULD BE A QUIET PERIOD AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXERTS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. MAY BE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES AT
DAYBREAK OVER NW PA BUT THOSE SHOULD END QUICKLY AS DRIER AIR
SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH. WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY. AT THAT POINT TEMPS WILL
REALLY TAKE A DOWNWARD TURN. MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT IS LACKING
BUT GIVEN LAKE TO 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES APPROACHING 20
DEGREES...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FROM KCLE
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INITIALLY
SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION OF 6 TO 7K FEET BUT THIS WILL LOWER ON
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING AS WELL SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY HEADLINES AND PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
EVEN IN PREFERRED AREA. SNOW CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO PUSH ANY SNOW BANDS NORTH
ONTO LAKE ERIE.

HAVE CONTINUED THE RECENT TREND OF NUDGING TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE BUT
BY WEDNESDAY READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 20 DEGREES
FOR HIGHS. THE NEW GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD IS RATHER COMPLICATED WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PHASING OF THE
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE NATION AND THE TREATMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE IN
THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE GFS DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKS IT WEST OF THE REGION TO PRODUCE RAIN
OVER THE AREA ON THE SATURDAY AS IT PHASES THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM.  THE ECMWF DOES NOT PHASE THE
SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWS DOWN THE
FEATURE AND TRACKS IT SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS KEEPS THE REGION
COLD WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART HAVE TAKEN A
COMPROMISED SOLUTION BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION
FORECASTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILING HEIGHT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RA-/SN-
FROM GEAUGA COUNTY TO YNG SHOULD END BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON.

EXPECT A SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CLOUDS WEST OF CLE TOWARD SUNSET
WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY LIFTING TO THE 2500-3500FT RANGE FROM MFD TO
CLE TO ERI AND YNG INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL
INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUD COVERAGE EAST OF CLE AFTER 00 UTC
AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
OVER EXTREME NE OHIO AND NW PA. VFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE
THE SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR CEILINGS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL
STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND MAY
PRODUCE GALES ON LAKE ERIE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN BRIEFLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE GULF COAST AND GRADUALLY
HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS ONTARIO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE TRACK OF THIS LOW AND RESULTANT
WIND FORECAST FOR LAKE ERIE IS QUESTIONABLE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...LAPLANTE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 111 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...NOW
EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND WILL USHER IN NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRECIP IS PRETTY MUCH GONE AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PULLED THE
REMAINING PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING DOWN
A LITTLE. STILL THINK WESTERN AREAS WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY BY MID
AFTERNOON.

ORIGINAL...COLD FRONT NOW ABOUT TO EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST.
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN FROM THE WEST ENDING PRECIP JUST WEST OF A
CLE- MNN LINE. CURRENT TIMING OF THE BACK EDGE TAKES IT TO NEAR AN
KERI-KCAK LINE ABOUT 1015Z AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 13Z OR SO.
PRECIP COULD END AS A MIX AS TEMPS DROP TOWARD MORNING BUT NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP. AS FOR CLOUD
COVER...SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS WEST OF CHICAGO ALTHOUGH RANDOM
HOLES ARE DEVELOPING FROM TIME TO TIME. BELIEVE DAY WILL BEGIN
CLOUDY ALL AREA BUT STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE BREAKS ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST AS WE WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO MIX. HIGHS NOT FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPS
MOST PLACES. CURRENTLY CAK AND YNG ARE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S SO HIGHS THERE ACTUALLY LOWER THAN
CURRENT AS TEMPS WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN TO NEAR 40 BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECTING DRY WX TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MID DAY. SLIGHT CHANCES
RETURNING FOR THE SNOWBELT AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING TO
CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS POST SECONDARY FRONT AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO -12-14C. STILL WITH LAKE TEMPS AT
+3C...DIFFERENTIAL ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR LES. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS SNOWBELT EARLY TUESDAY AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE AS MOISTURE SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A WEAK UPPER TROF/SHORT WAVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER TO DRIED IT OUT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO
DROP THROUGH -15 TO -18C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST
LIMITED MOISTURE SO WILL BRING CHANCE POPS FOR LES BACK TO THE
LAKESHORE. DRY AIR ELSEWHERE HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY THE REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM JET POSITIONED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
PROVIDE FOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND NOT ALLOW ANY MORE OF THE COLD AIR
TO SINK SOUTHWARD FOR THE TIME BEING. IT WILL ALSO BE DRY. THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND GETS MUCH MORE COMPLICATED WITH
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND A DIGGING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. LOOKING TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FOR NOW PLACES LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL REGION BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS WARM
AIR ADVANCES NORTHWARD PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A
WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE AT ONSET AND A PERIOD OF RAIN POSSIBLE TOO. THE
DEGREE/SPEED THE COLD AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACKSIDE IS IN QUESTION
TOO...AS WOULD BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILING HEIGHT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RA-/SN-
FROM GEAUGA COUNTY TO YNG SHOULD END BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON.

EXPECT A SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CLOUDS WEST OF CLE TOWARD SUNSET
WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY LIFTING TO THE 2500-3500FT RANGE FROM MFD TO
CLE TO ERI AND YNG INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL
INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUD COVERAGE EAST OF CLE AFTER 00 UTC
AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
OVER EXTREME NE OHIO AND NW PA. VFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE
THE SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR CEILINGS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE EAST TWO
THIRDS UNTIL MID MORNING...WITH WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDING AFTER THAT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON
THE LAKE WEATHER FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
THEY WILL SETTLE BACK TOWARDS SOUTHWEST AS THAT HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH.
NEXT INCREASE IN WIND/WAVES LOOKS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER HUDSON BAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE...FOR NOW...WILL BE
FORECAST TO 30 KNOTS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
WITH THE GRADIENT AND FETCH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...OUDEMAN






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 123 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
SOME MOISTURE WILL LINGER UNTIL TUESDAY. DRIER AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK...BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM EST UPDATE...A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO EXIT EAST OF THE AREA BY
NOON...WITH A DRY SLOT MOVING IN THRU THE REST OF THE REGION THRU
THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE...POPS WERE LOWERED INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND LOW END CHANCE RANGE IN THE MTNS ZONES
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z SUN...BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP FROM NW TO SE THRU
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

910 AM EST UPDATE...HAVE RAISED POPS TO 90/100 RANGE THIS MORNING
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA PER LATEST RADAR TREND. THIS IS
WELL IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BAND WILL
MOVE ACROSS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-85 THIS MORNING THRU
MIDDAY. ALSO...HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST SURFACE OBS.

AS OF 645 AM...RAIN SHIELD HAS MADE VERY LITTLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS
ABOVE (ROUGHLY) I-85 THIS MORNING...AND AM BEGINNING TO WONDER IF
THE PRECIP ISN/T GOING TO JUST FIZZLE MORE OR LESS IN PLACE...AS
UPGLIDE WEAKENS...AND THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE HIGH POPS (60-80) ACROSS OUR NC ZONES...BUT THESE HAVE BEEN
SCALED BACK FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS STEADY THIS MORNING UNDER DENSE
CLOUD COVER.

AREA OF MODERATE RAIN IS FINALLY PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL...THIS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN
WHAT THE MODELS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN DEPICTING...AND THE HIGHEST QPF
FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST
GA...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE PRECIP
SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME...AS THE BROAD BAND
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT TRANSLATES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THEREFORE...THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN NC MAY YET SEE UP
TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
TOWARD THE I-77 CORRIDOR.

AS UPGLIDE SHUTS OFF AND MID-LEVELS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP
SHOULD COME TO AN END...ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST AND THERE MAY BE PATCHES OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN LINGERING.
POPS WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT IN THE TOKEN CHANCE RANGE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIP FALLING INTO A DRY AIR MASS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...A WEAK IN-SITU CAD EVENT MAY RESULT...AND MAX TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO END UP BEING RATHER CLOSE TO CLIMO...DESPITE HIGH
THICKNESS VALUES FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM TEXAS/THE LOWER MISS VALLEY
TONIGHT WILL DAMPEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. NEVERTHELESS...A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND WARRANTING CATEGORICAL POPS IN
ALL AREAS ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER ROUND OF .25-.50 INCH QPF APPEARS
LIKELY IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PESKY FRONTAL ZONE FINALLY DOES LOOK TO BE
FORCED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA MONDAY AS A CANADIAN AIRMASS
EXPANDS OVER MOST OF THE ERN CONUS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR DO START TO
FILTER IN BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME LLVL MOISTURE DOES LINGER INTO
TUE. THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THAT
TIME...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA BY TUE NIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE COLD ADVECTION AND LLVL LIFT
MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE...IN TIME TO ENCOUNTER THE MOISTURE. THUS POPS
EXHIBIT A SECONDARY PEAK TUE MRNG. AS WINDS VEER TO NW AROUND THAT
TIME...SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH POPS TAKING A
LITTLE LONGER TO TAPER OFF TUE NEAR THE TENN BORDER. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH TUE MRNG. PROFILES INDICATE AN
ACCORDINGLY WARM COLUMN...AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. ICE NUCLEATION AND SNOW PRODUCTION ARE
UNLIKELY...SO WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE CWFA
MON NIGHT NO MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP HAS BEEN MADE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY DEEPER DRYING BEGINS LATER TUE AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEARER. MAX TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO AROUND CLIMO TUE FOLLOWED BY SIMILARLY NORMAL TEMPS
FOR WED MRNG. DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION...NOTABLY GUSTY WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AIRMASS HAVING ALREADY
PUSHED THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...REMARKABLY STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS GETS SHUNTED SWD AS NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO
THE MIDWEST AND PATTERN BEGINS TO REAMPLIFY OVER THE EAST. DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR AREA WED-THU WITH TEMPS
NEAR CLIMO. THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY THU NIGHT
INITIATING RETURN FLOW INTO THE WRN GULF STATES AS THE CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PICKS UP SPEED. EVENTUALLY THAT WILL TRACK
ACRS THE MIDDLE OR LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SPINNING UP A NEW
SYSTEM.  AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 28/00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND EC IS
GENERALLY GOOD...NOW ONLY SHOWING MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC LOW
TRACK. REGARDLESS OF THE PRECISE TRACK PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE THU NIGHT BEFORE PEAKING SATURDAY. MODELS HINT AT SOME PTYPE
CONCERNS EARLY IN THE EVENT WITH A POSSIBLE IN-SITU CAD EVENT
DEVELOPING...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN WITH TEMPS
TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BEYOND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR/MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO IFR CIGS...AS LATEST VISBY SATELLITE
SHOWS CONSIDERABLE IFR CLOUDS SPREADING BACK IN FROM THE SW. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF LIFR CIGS THIS EVENING THRU THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. HENCE...HAVE MENTIONED 200-400FT RANGE CIGS BEYOND
22Z...CONTINUING THRU 18Z MON. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THRU TONIGHT. AS A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW SETS UP OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...PRECIP WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND WINDS
WILL VEER MORE TO THE NE BY MON MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR
VISBY WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS LLVL COOL AND
MOIST AIRMASS SPREADS FROM THE NE UNDERNEATH THE PERSISTING WAA SWLY
FLOW ALOFT.

ELSEWHERE...BKN TO SCT VISBY/MVFR CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE NC MTNS
AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC IFR
CLOUDS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A BAND OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THRU THE AREA. ELSEWHERE
WILL SEE CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG WITH
IFR VISBY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...MOIST AND
COOLER AIRMASS SPREADS IN FROM THE NE BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. WITH A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS BY EARLY MON...LIFR CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIP WILL AFFECT
THE MOST LOCATIONS IN ITS WAKE. S/SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N
TONIGHT WITH THE FROPA...AND VEER TO THE NE BY MON MORNING.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OCCURS THROUGHOUT
TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN BY MID-WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       MED   65%     MED   66%     MED   68%     MED   68%
KGSP       MED   76%     MED   66%     MED   61%     MED   65%
KAVL       MED   68%     MED   62%     MED   67%     MED   76%
KHKY       MED   62%     LOW   55%     MED   64%     MED   76%
KGMU       MED   72%     MED   66%     MED   64%     MED   62%
KAND       MED   72%     MED   66%     MED   67%     MED   68%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/JOH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JOH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 340 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY/S PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS NOW STARTED TO CLEAR THE
WESTERNMOST COUNTIES AS OF 3 PM /GENERALLY AREAS WEST OF THE
BRAZOS RIVER/. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAINFALL TOTALS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS IT TRANSLATES EAST AHEAD
OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THE EDGE OF
THE CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN LAGS BEHIND THE END OF THE
RAINFALL AND IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. WHILE IT SEEMS RELATIVELY BENIGN...THE
TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS CLOUD DECK WILL ACTUALLY PLAY A VERY
IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IN TERMS OF OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK FROM
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THIS CLEARING REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 00-02Z...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
CLEARING LINE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE/S
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST THE LINE WILL PUSH
THOUGH...WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWING IT REACHING NEAR THE I-45
CORRDIOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS LINE PUSHES EAST...THE
WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ALLOWED THE OPPORTUNITY TO RADIATIONALLY
COOL ENOUGH TO EXPERIENCE A LIGHT/BRIEF FREEZE. IF THE CLOUDS DO
NOT CLEAR AS QUICKLY /OR CLEAR FASTER/...OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED WITH THE ADDITION /OR LOSS/ OF A
CLOUD BLANKET. ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL KEEP MIXING TO A MINIMUM...RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT /ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT CLEAR/. LATEST RAP AND HRRR
VISIBILITY PROGS OFFER CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER OR NOT
FOG WILL DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE PATCHY FOG MENTION OUT OF
THE FORECAST BUT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE.

THE GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON HAS CONSISTED OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THIS FEATURE. THE MOST NOTICEABLE
FOR US HAS BEEN THE ONE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S RAIN. TWO
DISTURBANCES FARTHER UPSTREAM /ONE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND
ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA/ WILL IMPACT THE
REGION/S WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK. BEHIND TODAY/S SHORTWAVE... A
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
MONDAY... ENOUGH INSOLATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MONDAY/S WARM UP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE
NW CONUS CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS OOZING
THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...AND TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE EXTENT OF THE MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS /FROM EITHER
DIABATIC OR ADIABATIC PROCESSES/ IS STILL NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR...BUT
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF GOING BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE AS THE EVENT
EVOLVES. THIS LEAVES THE OUTLOOK FOR MID-WEEK CHILLY WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50.

THE FORMERLY CANADIAN SHORTWAVE DROPS TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /WHICH
ALLOWS FOR SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION/ AND
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT BEGIN TO
INCREASE UNTIL THURSDAY WITH THIS LIFT...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DEVELOPS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. GUIDANCE INDICATES A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRANSLATE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NORTHWEST
ZONES...BUT THE REGION MAY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM THIS EXTRA SOURCE
OF LIFT TO ENHANCE OUR CHANCES.

BY FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ON THE INCREASE AS A COASTAL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING EXTENT OF GULF MOISTURE
RETURN...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS POINT TO
CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE CROSSES TEXAS...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE AREA AND END RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO LATE SATURDAY.

HUFFMAN

&&

.MARINE...
BOTH NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS. CAUTION FLAGS ARE LIKELY...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND. LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTH WINDS COME BACK OVER THE WEEKEND. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      42  33  58  38  51 /  60  10   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              44  36  59  42  57 /  70  10   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            49  43  57  48  56 /  70  20   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 500 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S. AND BRITISH COLUMBIA...A COLLECTION OF WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER
WYOMING AND NEBRASKA AND AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE
A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW COMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A COLD FRONT
WAS EVIDENT AT THE SURFACE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN LOWER MI TO LA CROSSE TO SIOUX CITY IA. LOW
CLOUDS WITH A FEW FLURRIES WERE EVIDENT IN A 100 MILE WIDTH ZONE
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE SKIES WERE MAINLY SUNNY AHEAD OF IT. 925MB
TEMPS OF -6 TO -10C AND SUN HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO MOSTLY CLIMB
INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW NEAR 30 READINGS IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
COLDEST READINGS HAVE BEEN OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA WITH
MORE SNOW AND BEING FIRST TO EXPERIENCE THE FROPA. MUCH COLDER AIR
TRYING TO SINK SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE -15 TO
-20C RANGE OVER MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MN.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE COLLECTION OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER WYOMING AND NEBRASKA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING THESE SHORTWAVES ACROSS IOWA AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH
THESE SHORTWAVES COMES INCREASING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...MOSTLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. PROBLEM IS THAT AT THE TIME OF THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT...THERE IS ENOUGH DRY AIR BELOW THE MID CLOUDS TO ABSORB MUCH
OF THE SNOW PRODUCTION. WHEN THAT DRY AIR MOSTLY SATURATES...THE
LIFT IS GONE. THEREFORE...A MENTION OF FLURRIES AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD SEEMS REASONABLE. MOST 28.12Z GUIDANCE OF QPF CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE A DRY FORECAST TOO.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR
IN DROPPING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...SINCE CLOUDS SHOULD BE IN PLACE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. 925MB TEMPS FALL TO -10C SOUTH TO -15C NORTH...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
TO NEAR 20 SOUTH. THE COLDEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED IN TAYLOR/CLARK
COUNTIES WHERE SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD. FURTHER 925MB TEMP COOLING TAKES PLACE
ON MONDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. READINGS DROP TO -13C
SOUTH TO -17C NORTH...WHICH MEANS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
THAN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

THE MAIN STORY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IS THE COLD. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP A 1050-1060MB HIGH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE
SIDE OF THE ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME...WITH COLD ADVECTION
DOWNSTREAM OF THE HIGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS FALL TO
-16 TO -19C BY 12Z TUESDAY AND TO AROUND -20C BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. MUCH
OF THE TIME PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...OUTSIDE OF SOME PASSING
CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OF ARCTIC ORIGIN MOVING THROUGH. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL STAY WARMER DUE TO THE FACT OF NO SNOW ON THE
GROUND...BUT STILL EXPECT CHILLY READINGS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE COLDEST AIR IN PLACE. A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST BREEZE SHOULD
EXIST SINCE WE ARE NOT UNDER THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...THEREFORE...
WIND CHILLS BECOME A FACTOR. ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED BOTH
NIGHTS...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA TOO.

SOME MODERATION TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY / NEW YEARS EVE
AND DAY / IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...THIS MODERATION TAKES
PLACE AT THE EXPENSE OF HIGHER WINDS...WHICH MEANS A PERSISTENT WIND
CHILL FACTOR. FIRST...THE WESTERLY WINDS ADVECT DOWNSLOPED AIR OFF
THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...BOOSTING 925MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -14C BY 00Z THU AND -8 TO -10C BY 00Z FRI. THESE READINGS
SHOULD HELP BRING HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE TEENS ON WEDNESDAY AND
MOSTLY INTO THE 20S ON THURSDAY. NOW REGARDING THE WINDS...925MB
SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE AT 00Z THU
BEFORE RELAXING SOME FOR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD MIXING OF THOSE WINDS. RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS GUSTS MAY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KT...HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST
MN...BUT WORTH MONITORING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THESE END
UP HIGHER. SOMETHING ELSE TO MONITOR ON THURSDAY IS POSSIBLE LIGHT
SNOW AS A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROP THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED SOME CHANCE POPS TO
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-90.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WE NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW THAT COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S..
THIS UPPER LOW...FORMED BY THE CURRENT STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN U.S....IS PRESENTLY PROGGED TO GET LIFTED
THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO LOWER MI ON SATURDAY. SOME WARM ADVECTION
SNOW COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY WELL
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER LOW...OR FROM A FRONTOGENESIS BAND TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.. HOWEVER...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SEEM
TO BE THE BETTER CHANCES IN SEEING A COLD CONVEYOR BELT BAND OF SNOW
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE UPPER LOW. IF THIS SYSTEM
TRACKS FARTHER NORTHWEST...MAY END UP WITH AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW.
NOTE THAT THE 28.12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN PRESENT A MUCH SLOWER IDEA
WITH THE UPPER LOW...RESULTING IN A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO...THUS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AND ONLY 30-40 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

POST THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...A STRONG SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR LOOKS POISED
TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT COULD BE
NEARLY AS COLD AS THE JANUARY 5-7TH 2014 ARCTIC OUTBREAK...AND JUST
HAPPENS TO BE THE SAME DATES. THE 28.12Z MODEL CYCLE DEPICTS THE GFS
COLDER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS WARMER AND A BIT MORE DELAYED...WAITING
UNTIL MONDAY TO DRIVE THE COLD AIR IN. NEEDLESS TO SAY...STAY
TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

BAND OF 2-3 KFT CLOUDS SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING. RAGGED AND THINNER ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN...MAKING LOW
CIGS LESS ASSURED AT KRST. THESE LOWER CIGS SHOULD SINK SOUTH OF
KRST/KLSE BY 06Z...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 200 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S. AND BRITISH COLUMBIA...A COLLECTION OF WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER
WYOMING AND NEBRASKA AND AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE
A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW COMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A COLD FRONT
WAS EVIDENT AT THE SURFACE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN LOWER MI TO LA CROSSE TO SIOUX CITY IA. LOW
CLOUDS WITH A FEW FLURRIES WERE EVIDENT IN A 100 MILE WIDTH ZONE
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE SKIES WERE MAINLY SUNNY AHEAD OF IT. 925MB
TEMPS OF -6 TO -10C AND SUN HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO MOSTLY CLIMB
INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW NEAR 30 READINGS IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
COLDEST READINGS HAVE BEEN OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA WITH
MORE SNOW AND BEING FIRST TO EXPERIENCE THE FROPA. MUCH COLDER AIR
TRYING TO SINK SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE -15 TO
-20C RANGE OVER MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MN.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE COLLECTION OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER WYOMING AND NEBRASKA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING THESE SHORTWAVES ACROSS IOWA AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH
THESE SHORTWAVES COMES INCREASING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...MOSTLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. PROBLEM IS THAT AT THE TIME OF THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT...THERE IS ENOUGH DRY AIR BELOW THE MID CLOUDS TO ABSORB MUCH
OF THE SNOW PRODUCTION. WHEN THAT DRY AIR MOSTLY SATURATES...THE
LIFT IS GONE. THEREFORE...A MENTION OF FLURRIES AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD SEEMS REASONABLE. MOST 28.12Z GUIDANCE OF QPF CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE A DRY FORECAST TOO.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR
IN DROPPING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...SINCE CLOUDS SHOULD BE IN PLACE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. 925MB TEMPS FALL TO -10C SOUTH TO -15C NORTH...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
TO NEAR 20 SOUTH. THE COLDEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED IN TAYLOR/CLARK
COUNTIES WHERE SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD. FURTHER 925MB TEMP COOLING TAKES PLACE
ON MONDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. READINGS DROP TO -13C
SOUTH TO -17C NORTH...WHICH MEANS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
THAN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

THE MAIN STORY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IS THE COLD. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP A 1050-1060MB HIGH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE
SIDE OF THE ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME...WITH COLD ADVECTION
DOWNSTREAM OF THE HIGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS FALL TO
-16 TO -19C BY 12Z TUESDAY AND TO AROUND -20C BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. MUCH
OF THE TIME PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...OUTSIDE OF SOME PASSING
CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OF ARCTIC ORIGIN MOVING THROUGH. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL STAY WARMER DUE TO THE FACT OF NO SNOW ON THE
GROUND...BUT STILL EXPECT CHILLY READINGS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE COLDEST AIR IN PLACE. A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST BREEZE SHOULD
EXIST SINCE WE ARE NOT UNDER THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...THEREFORE...
WIND CHILLS BECOME A FACTOR. ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED BOTH
NIGHTS...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA TOO.

SOME MODERATION TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY / NEW YEARS EVE
AND DAY / IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...THIS MODERATION TAKES
PLACE AT THE EXPENSE OF HIGHER WINDS...WHICH MEANS A PERSISTENT WIND
CHILL FACTOR. FIRST...THE WESTERLY WINDS ADVECT DOWNSLOPED AIR OFF
THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...BOOSTING 925MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -14C BY 00Z THU AND -8 TO -10C BY 00Z FRI. THESE READINGS
SHOULD HELP BRING HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE TEENS ON WEDNESDAY AND
MOSTLY INTO THE 20S ON THURSDAY. NOW REGARDING THE WINDS...925MB
SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE AT 00Z THU
BEFORE RELAXING SOME FOR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD MIXING OF THOSE WINDS. RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS GUSTS MAY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KT...HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST
MN...BUT WORTH MONITORING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THESE END
UP HIGHER. SOMETHING ELSE TO MONITOR ON THURSDAY IS POSSIBLE LIGHT
SNOW AS A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROP THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED SOME CHANCE POPS TO
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-90.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WE NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW THAT COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S..
THIS UPPER LOW...FORMED BY THE CURRENT STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN U.S....IS PRESENTLY PROGGED TO GET LIFTED
THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO LOWER MI ON SATURDAY. SOME WARM ADVECTION
SNOW COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY WELL
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER LOW...OR FROM A FRONTOGENESIS BAND TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.. HOWEVER...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SEEM
TO BE THE BETTER CHANCES IN SEEING A COLD CONVEYOR BELT BAND OF SNOW
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE UPPER LOW. IF THIS SYSTEM
TRACKS FARTHER NORTHWEST...MAY END UP WITH AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW.
NOTE THAT THE 28.12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN PRESENT A MUCH SLOWER IDEA
WITH THE UPPER LOW...RESULTING IN A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO...THUS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AND ONLY 30-40 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

POST THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...A STRONG SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR LOOKS POISED
TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT COULD BE
NEARLY AS COLD AS THE JANUARY 5-7TH 2014 ARCTIC OUTBREAK...AND JUST
HAPPENS TO BE THE SAME DATES. THE 28.12Z MODEL CYCLE DEPICTS THE GFS
COLDER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS WARMER AND A BIT MORE DELAYED...WAITING
UNTIL MONDAY TO DRIVE THE COLD AIR IN. NEEDLESS TO SAY...STAY
TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

AVIATION WEATHER PRETTY GOOD TODAY BUT WATCHING BAND OF MVFR
CEILINGS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH WITH WEAK FRONT. THIS CLOUD BAND HAS
BEEN THINING A BIT BUT STILL EXPECTING IT TO TRACK SOUTH CLOSER TO
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THAT SAME BAND
CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE TOUGH BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS REMAINING IN PLACE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....SHEA