Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/12/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND
A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A DECAYING VORTICITY CENTER WAS STILL EVIDENT SPINNING OVER FAR SWRN
NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...PLACING THE SERN QUARTER OF ARIZONA IN A
WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE. SREF PROBABILITIES AND HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY JUST EAST OF GILA
COUNTY AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AS CIRRUS STREAMING EAST FROM THE PACIFIC
HAS BEEN ERODING IN A REGION OF SINKING MOTION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. EVENTUALLY THICKER HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE
REGION...BUT NOT LIKELY UNTIL TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING
VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID
70S STILL LOOK GOOD.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/410 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014/
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SLOWLY PROGRESSED EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEAK UPPER LOW CENTER THAT BROUGHT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS TO AZ...AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF EASTERN
AZ YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOW BE
OBSERVED OVER MOST OF SE CA AND SW ARIZONA. A RATHER WARM AIR
MASS...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE...WITH EXPECTED TO ONCE
AGAIN ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM EACH DAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE VERY GOOD DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
ALL THE MODEL SUITES CONTINUING TO BRING A STRONG PACIFIC STORM
INLAND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THE SFC COLD FRONT INTO SE CA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THEN
ACROSS SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO BY GOOD WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
PWATS BRIEFLY RISING UP IN THE 1.00-1.15 INCH RANGE AND 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS IN THE 20-25DM RANGE...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION...RANGING FROM
AROUND 0.10 INCH ACROSS SE CA...TO AROUND 0.30 INCH ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...THEN UP TO 0.50-0.60 INCH ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. MOST OF THE PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN A 6-12HR PERIOD AS A RATHER NARROW FRONTAL
BAND PASSES THROUGH. SNOWFALL...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
LIGHT...MAINLY CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS AOA 6500FT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER ON FRIDAY ACROSS SE CA...WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 60S AT SOME LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...WITH SW AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ SEEING ONE MORE DAY WITH HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE
70S. MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S ON SAT
AND SUN AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS AS 850MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE
5-7C RANGE. LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S ON SAT AND SUN NIGHT
AT THE NORMALLY COLDER RURAL LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMUP TO THE REGION.
UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
GFS...EURO...AND GEM NOW SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL/KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BIG CHANGE TO THE WEATHER BEGINNING
FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. THE FRONT WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...FIRST BRINGING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN
ARIZONA FRIDAY AND THEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. SOME INCREASE IN WIND IS ALSO ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...THOUGH GUSTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20-25 MPH. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM...HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS
SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MO/PERCHA
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL
RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
A GOOD CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A PESKY WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
SITTING OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL VERY SLOWLY
EASE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A
FEW SHOWERS KEEP POPPING UP OVER COCHISE COUNTY FROM TIME TO TIME
AND LATEST HRRR RUNS SUPPORT THIS HAPPENING WELL INTO THE NIGHT WITH
A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. I ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE VERY WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY AND THE
AIR MASS WILL BE JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WAS UNTOUCHED. THE REMAINDER OF THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. CERNIGLIA
THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE HAS BEEN DEALING WITH THAT UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO CALIFORNIA LATE
THIS WEEK...AND INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A TAP INTO
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO
THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS. AS IT MOVES OUR WAY...IT WILL BEGIN TO
LOSE ITS MOISTURE SOURCE. BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS...ITS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH AND HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND OVERALL TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODEL RUNS
THEMSELVES ALL SERVE TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN A NICE COVERAGE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. AS OF
NOW...EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL WITH A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE SKY
ISLANDS. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH THE
PRECIPITATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL COOL THINGS DOWN DRAMATICALLY THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
VALLEY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY.
&&
AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/06Z.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF TUCSON WELL INTO THE NIGHT BUT
THEY WILL BE VERY WIDELY SCATTERED AND EXPECTED TO END BY 10/12Z.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS...GENERALLY ABOVE 15K FT AGL THRU
10/12Z...DECREASING TO SKC THEREAFTER. EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AFT 10/20Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. CERNIGLIA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA VERY
SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THAT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
FRIDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. CERNIGLIA
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 AM PST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH DENSE FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THROUGH AROUND NOON. A STRONG STORM IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG WILL BE THE FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 8 TO 12
HOURS ACROSS THE VALLEY...AS MOST LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER MILE. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z. THE DENSE FOG IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DISSIPATING FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z...WITH DENSE FOG LINGERING
IN KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES EVEN INTO 21Z. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST AND DRIVE CAREFULLY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY FORECAST...AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE ENTIRE
REGION. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORM...WITH THE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATING
925 MB WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 55 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. IN GENERAL...FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...WHILE THE
SOUTHERN HALF WILL BE IMPACTED BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY. SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY NEAR THE GRAPEVINE MAY SEE WIND GUSTS
OVER 60 KTS. MUCH OF THE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
30 AND 45 KTS. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
STRONG WINDS.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS...RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION WILL
BEGIN OVER MERCED/MARIPOSA COUNTIES AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT MORE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO FRESNO COUNTY BY THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO KERN COUNTY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RES
ARW...NMM..AND NAM ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT TIMING...ADDING
TO FORECAST CONFIDENCE. IN GENERAL...THE VALLEY WILL SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A HALF INCH OF RAIN TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. THE FOOTHILLS WILL
SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 2.5 INCHES. LASTLY...WITH THIS STORM...SNOW
LEVELS WILL DROP FROM AROUND 8000 FEET ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO
6000 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 FEET...WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN MARIPOSA AND TUOLUMNE
COUNTIES SEEING SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 2.5 FEET. A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING...AN UNSTABLE COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE CAPE VALUES PEAK
BETWEEN 300 AND 500 J/KG.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
YET ANOTHER...LESS POWERFUL...STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD
CALIFORNIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS STORM CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY STORM EXITS THE REGION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH RES AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AS WELL AS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WILL BE THE MOST
POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM THE AREA HAS SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL, PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST VERY CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...DENSE FOG PRODUCING LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 20Z. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS FOG GRADUALLY DECREASES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
.END..
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 10 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
KERN COUNTY. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING
UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED
AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 12-10 74:1939 38:1972 58:1937 26:1951
KFAT 12-11 69:1933 39:1932 56:1937 25:1972
KFAT 12-12 69:1969 40:1932 55:1929 18:1932
KBFL 12-10 85:1912 41:1972 53:1937 24:1923
KBFL 12-11 81:1912 35:1932 58:1937 24:1923
KBFL 12-12 75:1913 43:1932 53:1893 20:1901
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE CAZ096-097.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
CAZ093-096.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
CAZ089>095.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY CAZ089>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...RILEY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
946 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY THIN CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE
MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT SEEN IN WYOMING AND VERY LIGHT CROSS
MOUNTAIN FLOW SO EXPECT MOST OF THIS TO REMAIN THIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS HIGH TEMPS WOULD REACH 60F UNDER
FULL SUNSHINE WITH ONLY A SHALLOW INVERSION IN PLACE. GOOD WARMUP
ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A
FEW 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 50S IN/NEAR THE LOWER
FOOTHILLS/PALMER DIVIDE. NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST A DEGREE
OR TWO BASED ON LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014
SHOULD NOT SEE A REPEAT OF THE CHILLY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS
PREVALENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE YESTERDAY...AT LEAST NOT THIS
MORNING. AS WE SAW YESTERDAY EVEN HIGH ALTITUDE CIRRUS CLOUDS CAN
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE WITH THE MIDDAY SUN ANGLE
AS LOW AS IT IS THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR TODAY...SKIES OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO SHOULD START OUT PRETTY MUCH CLOUD-
FREE ALLOWING FOR A STEADY WARMUP THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE STRONG SFC BASED INVERSION ON THE PLAINS DISSIPATING BY
AROUND 17Z. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS...THE HAZY CONDITIONS...A HOLD OVER
FROM THE POOR MIXING CONDITIONS YESTERDAY...SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS. BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS QUITE
DRY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE PLAINS CURRENTLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS (F). FOOTHILL AIR IS EVEN DRIER WITH
DEWPTS AS LOW AS MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 F...AND THAT/S WITHOUT THE
DRYING EFFECTS OF A CHINOOK WIND. THIS WILL AIDE IN THE WARMUP
THIS MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT BATCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOWS
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST.
CROSS SECTIONS DO NOT INDICATE A MTN WAVE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
TODAY. HOWEVER THE RAP AND NAM INDICATE THE FORMATION OF A MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK SIMILAR TO A MTN WAVE CLOUD AFTER 18Z...THOUGH
PERHAPS NOT AS THICK. CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOW A LAYER OF CIRRUS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT TEMPS AGAIN...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER TODAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S ON THE
PLAINS AND 40S/LOWER 50S ACRS THE HIGH COUNTRY. WITH THE PROSPECT
OF LIGHT WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TODAY...WILL
CAUTIOUSLY GO WITH THEM.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER COLORADO...
BRINGING WITH IT DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT. SHOULD SEE SKIES
CLEARING THIS EVENING...AND SIGNS OF A MTN WAVE FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BREEZING DOWNSLOPE WINDS A PRODUCT OF
THIS MTN WAVE WILL PRODUCE WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE PLAINS...
ESPLY ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO ON THURSDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON FRIDAY AS MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW
TURNS SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 60S BY
FRIDAY.
MAIN CONCERN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WHICH TAKES AIM
ON COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SOME COOLING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. LATEST GFS/EUROPEAN 00Z RUNS SHOW THE UPPER TROF OVER UTAH
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
AND INTO A CLOSED LOW FORMING NEAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 18Z
SUNDAY. THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS IN A
MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
OVER EAST SLOPES AND PLAINS OF COLORADO.
GIVEN THE RECENT STORM TRACK CHANGES IN THE MODELS NOT
READY TO BITE TOO HARD YET. HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TO
RAISE POPS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. IF THIS TRACK
PERSISTS...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP IN THE ORDER OF 3 TO 6
INCHES BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. WITH THE STRONG NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STORM TRACK...HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD FAVOR
THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION. QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS ARE ALSO
FAIRLY MODEST WITH UPWARD ASCENT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO. SINCE WE ARE STILL 5 DAYS OUT...MANY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS
MAY STILL PLAY OUT. GIVEN CURRENT MODEL TRACK...SNOW WOULD
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 934 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. FAIRLY NORMAL AND LIGHT DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE LEANING TOWARD
EASTERLY AROUND 6 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 7-14
KNOTS 01Z-16Z THURSDAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
359 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014
SHOULD NOT SEE A REPEAT OF THE CHILLY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS
PREVALENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE YESTERDAY...AT LEAST NOT THIS
MORNING. AS WE SAW YESTERDAY EVEN HIGH ALTITUDE CIRRUS CLOUDS CAN
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE WITH THE MIDDAY SUN ANGLE
AS LOW AS IT IS THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR TODAY...SKIES OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO SHOULD START OUT PRETTY MUCH CLOUD-
FREE ALLOWING FOR A STEADY WARMUP THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE STRONG SFC BASED INVERSION ON THE PLAINS DISSIPATING BY
AROUND 17Z. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS...THE HAZY CONDITIONS...A HOLD OVER
FROM THE POOR MIXING CONDITIONS YESTERDAY...SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS. BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS QUITE
DRY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE PLAINS CURRENTLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS (F). FOOTHILL AIR IS EVEN DRIER WITH
DEWPTS AS LOW AS MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 F...AND THAT/S WITHOUT THE
DRYING EFFECTS OF A CHINOOK WIND. THIS WILL AIDE IN THE WARMUP
THIS MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT BATCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOWS
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST.
CROSS SECTIONS DO NOT INDICATE A MTN WAVE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
TODAY. HOWEVER THE RAP AND NAM INDICATE THE FORMATION OF A MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK SIMILAR TO A MTN WAVE CLOUD AFTER 18Z...THOUGH
PERHAPS NOT AS THICK. CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOW A LAYER OF CIRRUS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT TEMPS AGAIN...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER TODAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S ON THE
PLAINS AND 40S/LOWER 50S ACRS THE HIGH COUNTRY. WITH THE PROSPECT
OF LIGHT WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TODAY...WILL
CAUTIOUSLY GO WITH THEM.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER COLORADO...
BRINGING WITH IT DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT. SHOULD SEE SKIES
CLEARING THIS EVENING...AND SIGNS OF A MTN WAVE FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BREEZING DOWNSLOPE WINDS A PRODUCT OF
THIS MTN WAVE WILL PRODUCE WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE PLAINS...
ESPLY ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO ON THURSDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON FRIDAY AS MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW
TURNS SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 60S BY
FRIDAY.
MAIN CONCERN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WHICH TAKES AIM
ON COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SOME COOLING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. LATEST GFS/EUROPEAN 00Z RUNS SHOW THE UPPER TROF OVER UTAH
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
AND INTO A CLOSED LOW FORMING NEAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 18Z
SUNDAY. THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS IN A
MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
OVER EAST SLOPES AND PLAINS OF COLORADO.
GIVEN THE RECENT STORM TRACK CHANGES IN THE MODELS NOT
READY TO BITE TOO HARD YET. HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TO
RAISE POPS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. IF THIS TRACK
PERSISTS...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP IN THE ORDER OF 3 TO 6
INCHES BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. WITH THE STRONG NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STORM TRACK...HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD FAVOR
THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION. QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS ARE ALSO
FAIRLY MODEST WITH UPWARD ASCENT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO. SINCE WE ARE STILL 5 DAYS OUT...MANY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS
MAY STILL PLAY OUT. GIVEN CURRENT MODEL TRACK...SNOW WOULD
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING EXPECTED FILL WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS EXTENSIVE AS
YESTERDAY AND ONCE AGAIN NO PRECIP FROM THEM. LOOK FOR DRAINAGE
WINDS OF 7-15KTS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLEBY
LATE MORNING...THEN LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...SKIES WILL BECOME TO CLEAR WITH WINDS ASSUMING THEIR
TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN. HOWEVER...KBJC MAY SEE GUSTY WEST WINDS
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE FORMATION OF A MOUNTAIN WAVE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
627 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS
OF SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO RETURN DRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 627 AM EST...AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
SITUATED NEAR BOSTON. A CLOSED OFF 500 HPA LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER NE PA/NORTHERN NJ.
LOTS OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON BOTH THE IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST AND APPROACHING THE NYC/LONG
ISLAND AREA...AND SOME THESE COLDER AND DEEPER CLOUDS WILL GET
PULLED NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TOWARDS OUR
REGION.
THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME AREAS OF SNOW...PERHAPS MIXING WITH RAIN
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AFFECTING NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE BEST DEFORMATION
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY WEST OF OUR AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. SOME DRIZZLE IS LIKELY OCCURRING IN A FEW AREAS AS
WELL...DUE TO THE LACK OF COLD CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF OUR
AREA. SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S...AND MANY AREAS CONTINUE TO BE
JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER
AROUND...AND SLIDE EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD. WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND PLENTY OF
FORCING DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW/PVA...AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 3KM HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BASICALLY OVERHEAD OUR REGION...ESP FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM/S TROWAL WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF OUR
REGION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO FAR NORTHERN NY...AND OUR
CWA LOOKS TO AVOID THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. STILL...WE CAN EXPECT SOME
ON AND OFF LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOWS BASICALLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...BUT
BOTH THE 03Z SREF AND 00Z GEFS SHOW AROUND 0.60 INCHES LIQUID
EQUIVALENT AT ALBANY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME PRECIP WILL OCCUR TODAY.
P-TYPE WILL GENERALLY BE SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO MUCH
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT THANKS TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME MIXING WITH RAIN/SLEET IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP THIS MORNING...AS MODELS STILL SHOW A
WARM NOSE ALOFT BETWEEN 800-900 HPA...BUT THIS LOOKS TO GO AWAY BY
LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO...IN SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SUCH AS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...THERE COULD
BE SOME RAIN...MAINLY THIS MORNING...DUE TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS. TEMPS TODAY LOOK WARMEST IN THE MORNING HOURS...WITH LOW TO
MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY HOLD STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALL...WITH TEMPS THIS EVENING DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST AREAS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
STEADY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO END BY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THERE
STILL WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VARIABLE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ...AND
CERTAINLY WILL BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT AS WELL. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WON/T BE TOO GREAT...BUT WILL BE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY DUE
TO COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. AN ADDITIONAL 4-8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SCHOHARIE/MOHAWK
VALLEY...WITH 2-6 INCHES FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL
REGION/LAKE GEORGE AND SARATOGA REGION. JUST 2-4 INCHES IS
EXPECTED IN SRN VT/BERKSHIRES DUE TO INITIAL MIXING. ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO WILL FALL FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT DUE TO SOME
MIXING WITH RAIN AS WELL. WITH THIS AMOUNTS IN MIND...WE HAVE
EXTENDED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY...WHICH
IS ALSO WHEN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN/WESTERN
AREAS RUNS UNTIL. BASICALLY...ALL AREAS OUTSIDE THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN BERKSHIRES...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT ARE IN SOME
TYPE OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING SFC LOW NEARBY AS
WELL...AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY WEATHER...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LESS THAN
RECENT DAYS...BUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER...WITH
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL...THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS EVEN STILL A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
FOR BOTH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LOCALIZED...AND MAINLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLY CHILLY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS
IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT...AND UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN...ESPECIALLY
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME...THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER DYNAMIC UPPER SYSTEM WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE
TRANQUIL WEATHER...WITH MORE ZONAL AND SPLIT UPPER FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE THAT HAS SHOWN BETTER SKILL OVER THE LAST MONTH OR SO IS
SUGGESTING THE MORE TRANQUIL ZONAL SPLIT FLOW. SO...JUST PUTTING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATER TUESDAY UNTIL
THE LONG RANGE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER.
HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...AGAIN...
WITH VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL WARMING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE HEAVIER AND STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...WHILE LIGHTER PATCHIER LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW SNOW
FLAKES ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM JUST NORTH OF KPOU THROUGH KALB AND
KGFL. BASED ON THE CURRENT AND FORECASTED THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THE PATCHY LIGHTER INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION...JUST SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ABOUT 16Z...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN FROM TIME TO TIME. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER BETWEEN LOW MVFR AND IFR...ESPECIALLY AT
KALB...BUT SOME INTERVALS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE AT KPSF...KGFL AND
KPOU.
NEW PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE REGION
AROUND OR AFTER 16Z...WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIXED AND CONTINUED
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BECOMING A STEADY SNOW AFTER
16Z. ONCE THE STEADIER SNOW BEGINS...CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO IFR
AND VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER AROUND 3SM. THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN TEND TO LIGHTEN AFTER 06Z-10Z...EXCEPT AT
KPSF WHERE THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. WHEN THE SNOW
DECREASES IN INTENSITY AFTER 06Z...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
PREDOMINANTLY BE MVFR.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MID MORNING SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KALB...KPOU AND KPSF EXCEPT AT
KGFL WHERE A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE REGION SAW A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...WHERE OVER AN
INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT OCCURRED. THIS PRECIPITATION LED TO A
LOT OF RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY IN THE HOUSATONIC BASIN. RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE RISEN SEVERAL FEET. MANY SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS
HAVE CRESTED OR ARE JUST ABOUT TO DO SO...WHILE SOME LARGER RIVERS
AND STILL SLOWLY RISING.
CURRENTLY..FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE STILL RIVER AT
BROOKFIELD AND FOR THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AT STEVENSON. THE STILL
RIVER SHOULD BE CRESTING SOON AND WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AT
STEVENSON IS STILL RISING AND IS CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE.
SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE FOR TODAY INTO TOMORROW...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT IN AREAS THAT SAW THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO RECEDE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ041-049-
050-052>054-083-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>040-042-043-047-048-051-058-063-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
419 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS
OF SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO RETURN DRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 419 AM EST...AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
SITUATED NEAR BOSTON. A CLOSED OFF 500 HPA LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER NE PA/NORTHERN NJ.
LOTS OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON BOTH THE IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST...AND SOME THESE COLDER AND
DEEPER CLOUDS WILL GET PULLED NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND TOWARDS OUR REGION.
THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME AREAS OF SNOW...PERHAPS MIXING WITH RAIN
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AFFECTING NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE BEST DEFORMATION
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY WEST OF OUR AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. SOME DRIZZLE IS LIKELY OCCURRING IN A FEW AREAS AS
WELL...DUE TO THE LACK OF COLD CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF OUR
AREA. SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S...AND MANY AREAS CONTINUE TO BE
JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER
AROUND...AND SLIDE EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD. WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND PLENTY OF
FORCING DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW/PVA...AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 3KM HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BASICALLY OVERHEAD OUR REGION...ESP FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM/S TROWAL WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF OUR
REGION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO FAR NORTHERN NY...AND OUR
CWA LOOKS TO AVOID THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. STILL...WE CAN EXPECT SOME
ON AND OFF LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY.
P-TYPE WILL GENERALLY BE SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO MUCH
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT THANKS TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME MIXING WITH RAIN/SLEET IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP THIS MORNING...AS MODELS STILL SHOW A
WARM NOSE ALOFT BETWEEN 800-900 HPA...BUT THIS LOOKS TO GO AWAY BY
LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO...IN SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SUCH AS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...THERE COULD
BE SOME RAIN...MAINLY THIS MORNING...DUE TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS. TEMPS TODAY LOOK WARMEST IN THE MORNING HOURS...WITH LOW TO
MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY HOLD STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALL...WITH TEMPS THIS EVENING DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST AREAS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
STEADY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO END BY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THERE
STILL WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VARIABLE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ...AND
CERTAINLY WILL BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT AS WELL. AN ADDITIONAL 4-8
INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SCHOHARIE/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH 2-6 INCHES FOR THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION/LAKE GEORGE AND SARATOGA REGION. JUST 2-4
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN SRN VT/BERKSHIRES DUE TO INITIAL MIXING.
ONLY AN INCH OR TWO WILL FALL FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
DUE TO SOME MIXING WITH RAIN AS WELL. WITH THIS AMOUNTS IN
MIND...WE HAVE EXTENDED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 7 AM
THURSDAY...WHICH IS ALSO WHEN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS RUNS UNTIL. BASICALLY...ALL AREAS OUTSIDE
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKSHIRES...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT
ARE IN SOME TYPE OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING SFC LOW NEARBY AS
WELL...AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY WEATHER...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LESS THAN
RECENT DAYS...BUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER...WITH
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL...THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS EVEN STILL A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
FOR BOTH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LOCALIZED...AND MAINLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLY CHILLY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS
IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT...AND UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN...ESPECIALLY
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME...THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER DYNAMIC UPPER SYSTEM WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE
TRANQUIL WEATHER...WITH MORE ZONAL AND SPLIT UPPER FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE THAT HAS SHOWN BETTER SKILL OVER THE LAST MONTH OR SO IS
SUGGESTING THE MORE TRANQUIL ZONAL SPLIT FLOW. SO...JUST PUTTING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATER TUESDAY UNTIL
THE LONG RANGE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER.
HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...AGAIN...
WITH VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL WARMING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE HEAVIER AND STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY AND THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS SLOWLY SHRINKING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT AND FORECASTED THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THE PATCHY LIGHTER INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION...
JUST SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ABOUT 12Z...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLAKES
MIXING IN FROM TIME TO TIME. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER
BETWEEN LOW MVFR AND PERIODICALLY DROP JUST INTO IFR AT KALB AND
KPSF WHILE LIKELY REMAINING MVFR AT KGFL AND KPOU. HOWEVER...
ACKNOWLEDGING A SCATTERED LAYER AT AROUND 800 FEET AT KGFL AND KPOU
THROUGH 12Z.
NEW PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE REGION
AROUND OR AFTER 12Z...WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIXED AND CONTINUED
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. COLDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY BE
DRAWN INTO THE REGION TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW AND
KEEP IT AS SNOW HOWEVER THAT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THE SNOW COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS
OVER 15 KNOTS...BUT INFREQUENT ENOUGH THAT GUSTS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED
IN THE TAFS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH
MID MORNING SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AT
KALB...KPOU AND KPSF EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE REGION SAW A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...WHERE OVER AN
INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT OCCURRED. THIS PRECIPITATION LED TO A
LOT OF RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY IN THE HOUSATONIC BASIN. RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE RISEN SEVERAL FEET. MANY SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS
HAVE CRESTED OR ARE JUST ABOUT TO DO SO...WHILE SOME LARGER RIVERS
AND STILL SLOWLY RISING.
CURRENTLY..FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE STILL RIVER AT
BROOKFIELD AND FOR THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AT STEVENSON. THE STILL
RIVER SHOULD BE CRESTING SOON AND WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AT
STEVENSON IS STILL RISING AND IS CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE.
SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE FOR TODAY INTO TOMORROW...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT IN AREAS THAT SAW THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO RECEDE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ041-049-
050-052>054-083-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>040-042-043-047-048-051-058-063-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1257 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH
A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER TONIGHT. THE STORM WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO THE REGION...SO ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1257 AM EST...A SFC LOW IS SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A CLOSED OFF 500 HPA LOW TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
POCONOS. THE LATEST IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NJ AND HEADING N-NW. RIGHT
NOW...SOME DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA...WITH ONE BAND OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ANOTHER LINE ORIENTED FROM THE GLENS FALLS
AREA ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARDS THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION.
PRECIP IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR THE WESTERN BAND...WITH
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE EASTERN BAND...WITH P-TYPE DEPENDNENT ON
PRECIP INTENSITY. OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND...THERE IS SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOWERS.
THE 03Z 3KM HRRR AND OUR HIRES WRF...ALONG WITH OTHER GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE NAM12 AND GFS40...ALL SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM OVER OUR AREA LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NEARBY LARGE SCALE FORCING...AND
THE DEEPER CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO TWIRL INTO OUR REGION AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH THE
ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS FOR NORTHERN/WESTERN
AREAS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. PTYPE IS STARTING TO TREND MORE
TOWARDS SNOW...BUT IN AREAS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL
ABOVE FREEZING...SOME RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT SOME SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL...AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM NOSE. HOWEVER...THIS WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL BE DIMINISHING TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AS THE COLD AIR
STARTS TO DEEPEN OVERHEAD.
TEMPS WILL BE BASICALLY STEADY ALL NIGHT...WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE MID 30S IN VALLEY
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
WHILE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHAT WAVE/S/ WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION...MOISTURE WILL WRAP IN OFF THE ATLANTIC TO KEEP THE
HIGH PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST LOCATIONS WILL ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY. AS FOR THERMAL
PROFILES...WE WILL BE COOLING DOWN THE COLUMN WHERE MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS FOR
THE SPECIFICS...
WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE POINT TOWARD A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
REMAINS JUST OFF THE JERSEY SHORE. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HIGHER
THETA-E /TROWAL/ BACK INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES REMAIN RATHER HIGH OF 3-4 G/KG SO
WHERE IT DOES SNOW...WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.
PER THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND 00Z ECMWF...THIS SEEMS TO LINE
UP FOR OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING WILL
TAKE PLACE AS PER CSTAR RESEARCH...THESE UPPER LOWS ARE QUITE
PROBLEMATIC WITH PROVIDING SPECIFICS WHERE THE HEAVIER QPF WILL FALL.
THURSDAY...AS THE LOW FILLS AND FURTHER REDUCES THE
BAROCLINICITY...THE PRECIP INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH. SO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH
JUST A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
EASTWARD...ITS INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHC-SCT SNOW PROBABILITIES WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
AMPLIFY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A
TROUGH MOVING IN ON THE WEST COAST. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN
UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA WILL
DAMPEN THE RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST.
THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
WE SHOULD STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS...MAINLY
SNOW...AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STACKED LOW WILL LESSEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
GRADUALLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER OVER
MOST OF THE THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID DECEMBER ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE HEAVIER AND STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY AND THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS SLOWLY SHRINKING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT AND FORECASTED THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THE PATCHY LIGHTER INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION...
JUST SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ABOUT 12Z...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLAKES
MIXING IN FROM TIME TO TIME. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER
BETWEEN LOW MVFR AND PERIODICALLY DROP JUST INTO IFR AT KALB AND
KPSF WHILE LIKELY REMAINING MVFR AT KGFL AND KPOU. HOWEVER...
ACKNOWLEDGING A SCATTERED LAYER AT AROUND 800 FEET AT KGFL AND KPOU
THROUGH 12Z.
NEW PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE REGION
AROUND OR AFTER 12Z...WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIXED AND CONTINUED
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. COLDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY BE
DRAWN INTO THE REGION TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW AND
KEEP IT AS SNOW HOWEVER THAT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THE SNOW COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS
OVER 15KNOTS...BUT INFREQUENT ENOUGH THAT GUSTS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED
IN THE TAFS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH
MID MORNING SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AT
KALB...KPOU AND KPSF EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SN.
THU: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THU NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE CANCELED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR LITCHFIELD...EASTERN ULSTER AND
DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THE RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE STILL RISING FROM
THE RUNOFF.
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE STILL RIVER AT BROOKFIELD AND
FOR THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AT STEVENSON. OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS
ARE STILL RISING FROM RUNOFF.
SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT IN AREAS THAT SEE THE HEAVIEST LIQUID PRECIP TODAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO RECEDE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ041-049-050-052>054-083-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>040-042-043-047-048-051-058-063-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ014-015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GJM/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
648 PM EST THU DEC 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST THU DEC 11 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BUT SOME
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 20S TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST THU DEC 11 2014
STAGNANT PATTN SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONT THIS PD AS OMEGA BLOCK
PERSISTS. DIRTY RIDGE STRATOCU MANIFESTATION OF SHALLOW MSTR PLUME
CAUGHT UNDERNEATH STOUT LL THERMAL INVERSION COULD SPELL TROUBLE
WRT TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGE CNTR SLOWLY WORKS EWD. HWVR SHLD NOT BE
A PROB THIS PD W/GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS XPCD. THUS SUSPECT
LIKE LAST NIGHT...SHARP DROPOFF IN TEMPS AGAIN IN THE CARDS W/LIGHT
BUT NON-DECOUPLED WRLY BNDRY LYR FLW. MORE WIDESPREAD INSOLATION FRI
ALG W/FURTHER MODERATION ALOFT WILL ALLOW MOST PLACE TO REACH OR
BEST 40 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST THU DEC 11 2014
A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE RIDGE WITH IMPRESSIVE POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE THE MEAN INTO THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN LAKES) WILL FOLD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
ENSURING A QUIET/MILD START TO THE PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY UPSTREAM
OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE ARE LENDING CREDENCE TO
DIRTY RIDGE IDEA WITH LOW CLOUDS BUILDING IN BY SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP RANGES SOMEWHAT...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
THETA-E SURGE POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY.
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN INCREASE LATER MONDAY-TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH POWERFUL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IMPACTING
THE WEST COAST CLOSES/CUTS OFF INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFTS ENE INTO THE OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES BY
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AM PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
MOISTURE/FORCING APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN WITH SYSTEM
BUT HELD CLOSE TO PREV CONSERVATIVE FCST (LOW-MID CHANCE POPS) GIVEN
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES REGARDING TIMING/TRACK OF WAVE AND DISJOINTED
INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN STREAM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM EST THU DEC 11 2014
ANOTHER DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO LOW CLOUD AND
BR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. MOST HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE NEAR AND JUST UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PRESENT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LARGE CLEARING OVER OUR REGION PER
SUBSIDENCE ON BACK SIDE OF EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KEEPING
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR SO FAR. CONCERN IS WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING THAT
AREA OF STRATUS OVER EAST CENTRAL IL AND WEST CENTRAL IN MAY
EXPAND OVERNIGHT AS DEPICTED IN LATEST HRRR AND RUC13 GUIDANCE.
GIVEN SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING THIS AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS FOR SUCH DEVELOPMENT...HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS TO
BOTH TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. OPTED TO MIX CIGS TO VFR ON FRIDAY GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY BUT POSSIBLE MVFR COULD PERSIST.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
538 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FORECAST PROBLEM
TONIGHT AND LIKELY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
UNBREAKABLE INVERSION THAT ACTUALLY STRENGTHENS TONIGHT. I SEE NO
REASON WHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD NOT CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND BEYOND. LAST NIGHT THERE WERE ISOLATED AREAS OF
DENSE FOG WHERE VISIBILITIES DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE OR SO AS
WELL AS SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT OCCURRED FOR A COUPLE
HOURS THIS MORNING. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY REPEAT TONIGHT. THE
QUESTION BECOMES WILL IT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.
I DO EXPECT SOME EXPANSION OF LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG
HOWEVER IT MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY AND THUS DID
NOT PUT ONE OUT. I WILL HOWEVER ADVISE THE EVENING SHIFT THAT ONE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OR FAR NORTH MAY BE NECESSARY LATE TONIGHT.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE 925MB MOISTURE ADVECTION YOU CAN SEE THAT THE
BETTER ADVECTION OCCURS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE NAM IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS BUT THE RAP ALSO INCREASES
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THIS TIME...JUST FURTHER NW. TAKING A
LOOK AT THE HRRR AVIATION FLIGHT RULE PARAMETER AND VISIBILITY AND
THE HOPWRF VISIBILITY THEY CONFIRM THAT LOWER VISIBILITIES OCCUR
ACROSS THE NW MAINLY AFTER 09Z. IF DENSE FOG WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING. PATCHES OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/MIST THIS MORNING WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
OVER NORTHERN IOWA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTHS WILL BE SUPPRESSED A
BIT FROM AROUND 2.5 KFT TODAY TO AROUND 2 KFT FRIDAY MORNING. THAT
SAID...LOW LEVEL COLLISION COALESCENCE SHOULD STILL BE ONGOING
ENOUGH FROM MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR A FEW PATCHES OF MIST OR
DRIZZLE TO OCCUR AND COULD CAUSE A FEW ICY SPOTS ON ROADWAYS.
OTHERWISE...THE WARMING PROCESS WILL REMAIN SLOW ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER INVERSION KEEPS MOISTURE BELOW TRAPPED AND WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL WILL
BE DIRECTLY CORRELATED TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION PROCESSES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM DEWPOINT VALUES AND HAVE
CONTINUE TO TEMPER HIGHS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY TO RISING
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AND DEEPEN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN IOWA MAY HAVE
DENSE FOG DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY NOT HAVE MUCH IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DRIZZLE WILL BE HEAVY
ENOUGH FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE REMOVED
RAIN MENTION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVELS REMAINING QUITE
DRY HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING A DREARY DAY WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN IOWA TO HAVE A PERIOD OF SUN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IF THAT OCCURS...CERTAINLY COULD HAVE EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL
RISE INTO THE 40S TO EVEN 50S OVER THE SOUTH THUS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING.
THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE BY LATE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
DROPS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
COMMENCE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES
ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT IOWA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STILL A LOT OF GUIDANCE VARIABILITY TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF MUCH FARTHER NORTH
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO SQUASH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF NORTHEAST CURVATURE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY
SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION A GOOD
MEDIUM AND PREFERRED. MIXED PHASE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AS THE
COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST/NW AND DO NOT EXPECT A STRAIGHT
RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION. LIKELY TO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET IN BETWEEN LATE MONDAY OVER THE NORTHWEST THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW LIKELY WILL LINGER INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. COULD MEET WINTER HEADLINE
CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST IOWA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...12/00Z
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
STRATUS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WE WILL
SEE THE LOWEST CIGS GENERALLY LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORN WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY FRI AFTN. THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE 00Z TAF ARE
COMPLICATED BY RISING CIGS YIELDING AN ERODING AREA OF IFR AS
OPPOSED TO MVFR...AND BY A LARGE HOLE THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
CLOUDS JUST SW OF DSM AND OTM. BELIEVE IFR CIGS WILL HANG ON AT
MCW/ALO OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THEY
WILL RISE TO MVFR. MEANWHILE IF THE CLOUD HOLE REACHES
DSM/OTM...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHETHER THEY WILL GO FULLY
VFR/SKC OR WHETHER THEY WILL THEN FILL IN WITH RADIATIVE
FOG/STRATUS PRODUCING LOWER CONDITIONS. HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING
MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TOPEKA KS
541 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
20Z water vapor imagery shows a mid level ridge from the southern
Rockies into the northern plains. A weak shortwave was noted moving
south over the area on the back side of the closed low over the
northeast. However there is not much deep layer vertical motion with
this wave as indicated by the persistent stratus deck trapped within
a low level inversion. At the surface, ridging over the MS river
valley and low pressure along the lee of the Rockies has formed a
favorable pattern for gulf moisture to return north. This is also
aiding in the persistence of the low clouds and mist.
For tonight and Friday, models show little change in the pattern
with low level moisture continuing to advect north into the area.
Additionally weak subsidence on the back side of the shortwave aloft
is likely to reinforce the low level inversion through the day Friday
making it unlikely the boundary layer will mix out. Therefore the
forecast is for continued dreary weather. The NAM and RAP show low
level isentropic upglide redeveloping early this evening. Because of
this think areas of mist and drizzle are likely to redevelop. The
good news with all of this is temperatures are not expected to cool
much if any tonight due to a lack of radiational cooling and
continued low level moisture and warm air advection. The forecast
has temps pretty much holding steady in the upper 30s to around 40.
So the weather is expected to have little impact to daily activities
and the only impact of concern may be some restricted visibilities
from fog. However think that widespread dense fog will be mitigated
by the stratus already in place. Have been conservative with highs
Friday expecting overcast skies to hold strong. Although southerly
winds and warm air advection should help warm temps into the lower
50s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
Low level moisture advection increases northward Friday evening as
high pressure shifts east. Surface trough develops over the
Rockies resulting in increasing winds around 10 to 15 mph during the
afternoon Saturday. Winds do not appear particularly strong enough
to overcome the persistent stratus deck, with increasing moisture
raising dewpoints into the lower 50s. Thermal ridge stretched from
western Texas through the Midwest advects h85 temps near 13C by
Sunday morning. Above normal highs remain on track with readings in
the upper 50s to low 60s this weekend. Insulation from the stratus
may keep lows near the record warm levels as overnight lows fall
into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
In terms of precipitation Saturday, forecast soundings show brief
periods of enhanced lift within the cloud deck where light drizzle
or rain showers are possible. Surface winds hold or increase
slightly Saturday evening into Sunday as the upper shortwave trough
deepens east towards the four corners region. Adjusted precip
chances for rainfall Sunday afternoon as latest guidance is trending
the upper trough a tad slower, arriving in the late afternoon across
north central areas...spreading into all of northeast Kansas during
the evening. Bulk of the light to moderate rainfall exits by Monday
morning while models still hint at an enhanced deformation zone
setting up over eastern Nebraska and the northern half of the CWA.
There is some uncertainty on guidance as latest runs remain in
disagreement on the track of the upper trough and therefore how far
south additional precip occurs on Monday. At this time, held highest
chances north of Interstate 70 where falling temps Monday afternoon
and evening may switch rain over to a rain and snow mix. Rainfall
accumulations by the end of the event may range from a quarter up to
an inch for most locations. Accumulating snowfall is not anticipated
as below freezing temps do not arrive until after precipitation
exits.
Surface high pressure builds into the area Tuesday and Wednesday
where our best bet for sunny skies exists. Temperatures fall back to
more seasonal values with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and
30s. This pattern unfortunately does not last long as stratus
returns with the amplification of a slow-moving longwave trough
developing to the southwest. Vorticity maxima embedded within the
mean flow ejects into the central plains Wednesday evening and Thursday.
Much uncertainty remains with this system however the cooler airmass
in place hints at a possible rain and snow mix for much of the area
during this time. This system is not notably strong but will
continue to watch trends in upcoming days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
IFR and LIFR conditions in fog and drizzle will continue through 14z
with a slow improvement beyond 15z to mvfr vsbys in fog. Otherwise...
light easterly winds will become more southeast after 15z although
speeds will remain under 10 kts.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1123 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
FOG DEVELOPED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ALONG A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS WHICH WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WAS
LOCATED IN EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. HRRR AND RAP WERE SIMILAR AND
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AROUND
1/4 MILE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THIS AXIS WHICH WILL BE LOCATED
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. GIVEN THIS AND THE 2 AM HUGOTON
OBSERVATION WILL GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE THE
MOISTURE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO EARLIER THIS
MORNING, WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
FROM WEST TO EAST. HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD WILL ERODE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE NEAR TERM MODELS. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS, THE RAP AND NAM BOTH AGREE THAT FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL
HAVE MORE SUN THAN SOUTH CENTRAL OR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVE THIS AGREEMENT WILL FAVOR THE WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND GUIDANCE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS WHILE TRENDING
TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE FURTHER EAST.
DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL MARGINAL FOR DRIZZLE LATER
THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 SO AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS
LEAVING MENTION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OUT EARLY TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND AN HIGHER
DEW POINTS BEING LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. BASED ON
THIS FOG ONCE AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
USE THE NAM, NMM, AND ARW AS A FIRST GUESS ON THE LOCATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR DIGHTON TO LIBERAL.
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE, STATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. UPPER 30S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DEW POINTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD
COVER AREAL COVERAGE/TIMING AND TEMPERATURES, BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS MOST LIKELY MAINLY
EARLY THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE AREA, AND LIKELY LINGERING ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON EVEN IF WESTERN
SECTIONS CLEAR OUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. THE STRATUS AND
POTENTIAL FOG AS WELL SHOULD RAPIDLY REDEVELOP EACH EVENING WITH
ELEVATED DEW POINTS IN THE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW MAY
PROVIDE INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH THE DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC
LEAF. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONTINUING TO ALLOW THE WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT TO IMPACT THE DDC FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING, WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF PRESENTS A SOLUTION THAT
ASSUMES THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT KEEPS THE UPPER BANDED RAIN/SNOW
OVER FARTHER NORTH OVER NRN KS. THE GFS APPEARS MORE AGGRESSIVE FOR
A BANDED PRECIPITATION SOLUTION ACROSS OUR AREA. UNCERTAINTY WILL
REMAIN HIGH FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS, HOWEVER 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR RAIN EXISTS SUNDAY WITH RAIN OR SNOW AS WELL INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THIS TYPE 1 EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
EXPECT IFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOW VSBYS
WILL PERSIST LESS THAN 1SM DDC AND GCK THROUGH 20Z, AND THEN
IMPROVE TO P6SM. CIGS HOWEVER, WILL REMAIN BELOW IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 23Z, GO UP INTO VFR CONDITIONS NEAR OVC030, AND THEN GO
AGAIN DOWN TO IFR CIGS AROUND OVC010 ABOUT 11/08Z. MORE DENSE FOG
WITH 1/2SM FG IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING AFTER 10Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 37 55 42 / 0 10 0 10
GCK 50 33 56 37 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 57 35 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 53 36 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 43 32 51 40 / 0 10 0 10
P28 47 39 53 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
635 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
FOG DEVELOPED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ALONG A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS WHICH WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WAS
LOCATED IN EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. HRRR AND RAP WERE SIMILAR AND
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AROUND
1/4 MILE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THIS AXIS WHICH WILL BE LOCATED
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. GIVEN THIS AND THE 2 AM HUGOTON
OBSERVATION WILL GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE THE
MOISTURE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO EARLIER THIS
MORNING, WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
FROM WEST TO EAST. HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD WILL ERODE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE NEAR TERM MODELS. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS, THE RAP AND NAM BOTH AGREE THAT FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL
HAVE MORE SUN THAN SOUTH CENTRAL OR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVE THIS AGREEMENT WILL FAVOR THE WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND GUIDANCE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS WHILE TRENDING
TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE FURTHER EAST.
DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL MARGINAL FOR DRIZZLE LATER
THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 SO AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS
LEAVING MENTION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OUT EARLY TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND AN HIGHER
DEW POINTS BEING LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. BASED ON
THIS FOG ONCE AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
USE THE NAM, NMM, AND ARW AS A FIRST GUESS ON THE LOCATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR DIGHTON TO LIBERAL.
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE, STATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. UPPER 30S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DEW POINTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD
COVER AREAL COVERAGE/TIMING AND TEMPERATURES, BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS MOST LIKELY MAINLY
EARLY THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE AREA, AND LIKELY LINGERING ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON EVEN IF WESTERN
SECTIONS CLEAR OUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. THE STRATUS AND
POTENTIAL FOG AS WELL SHOULD RAPIDLY REDEVELOP EACH EVENING WITH
ELEVATED DEW POINTS IN THE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW MAY
PROVIDE INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH THE DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC
LEAF. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONTINUING TO ALLOW THE WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT TO IMPACT THE DDC FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING, WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF PRESENTS A SOLUTION THAT
ASSUMES THE DRY CONVEREYOR BELT KEEPS THE UPPER BANDED RAIN/SNOW
OVER FARTHER NORTH OVER NRN KS. THE GFS APPEARS MORE AGRESSIVE FOR
A BANDED PRECIPTATION SOLUTION ACROSS OUR AREA. UNCERTAINTY WILL
REMAIN HIGH FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS, HOWEVER 50 TO 60 PECENT
CHANCES FOR RAIN EXISTS SUNDAY WITH RAIN OR SNOW AS WELL INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THIS TYPE 1 EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR FOG AND STRATUS WILL NOT IMPROVE UNTIL
AROUND MID MORNING AND PERHAPS EVEN LATE FOR GENERAL IFR CIELINGS
AS AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEW POINTS AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
EXISTS JUST WEST OF THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 37 55 42 / 0 10 0 10
GCK 50 33 56 37 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 57 35 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 53 36 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 43 32 51 40 / 0 10 0 10
P28 47 39 53 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>064-074>078-085>088.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
351 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
...UPDATED LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
FOG DEVELOPED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ALONG A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS WHICH WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WAS
LOCATED IN EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. HRRR AND RAP WERE SIMILAR AND
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AROUND
1/4 MILE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THIS AXIS WHICH WILL BE LOCATED
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. GIVEN THIS AND THE 2 AM HUGOTON
OBSERVATION WILL GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE THE
MOISTURE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO EARLIER THIS
MORNING, WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
FROM WEST TO EAST. HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD WILL ERODE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE NEAR TERM MODELS. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS, THE RAP AND NAM BOTH AGREE THAT FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL
HAVE MORE SUN THAN SOUTH CENTRAL OR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVE THIS AGREEMENT WILL FAVOR THE WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND GUIDANCE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS WHILE TRENDING
TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE FURTHER EAST.
DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL MARGINAL FOR DRIZZLE LATER
THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 SO AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS
LEAVING MENTION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OUT EARLY TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND AN HIGHER
DEW POINTS BEING LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. BASED ON
THIS FOG ONCE AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
USE THE NAM, NMM, AND ARW AS A FIRST GUESS ON THE LOCATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR DIGHTON TO LIBERAL.
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE, STATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. UPPER 30S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DEW POINTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD
COVER AREAL COVERAGE/TIMING AND TEMPERATURES, BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS MOST LIKELY MAINLY
EARLY THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE AREA, AND LIKELY LINGERING ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON EVEN IF WESTERN
SECTIONS CLEAR OUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. THE STRATUS AND
POTENTIAL FOG AS WELL SHOULD RAPIDLY REDEVELOP EACH EVENING WITH
ELEVATED DEW POINTS IN THE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW MAY
PROVIDE INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH THE DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC
LEAF. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONTINUING TO ALLOW THE WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT TO IMPACT THE DDC FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING, WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF PRESENTS A SOLUTION THAT
ASSUMES THE DRY CONVEREYOR BELT KEEPS THE UPPER BANDED RAIN/SNOW
OVER FARTHER NORTH OVER NRN KS. THE GFS APPEARS MORE AGRESSIVE FOR
A BANDED PRECIPTATION SOLUTION ACROSS OUR AREA. UNCERTAINTY WILL
REMAIN HIGH FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS, HOWEVER 50 TO 60 PECENT
CHANCES FOR RAIN EXISTS SUNDAY WITH RAIN OR SNOW AS WELL INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THIS TYPE 1 EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
STRATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW DRAWS MORE HUMID AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT GCK
BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z WEDNESDAY AND DDC BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BASED ON
THE LATEST BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP. IFR TO LOW MVFR
VISIBILIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT HAYS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
THE VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 37 55 42 / 0 10 0 10
GCK 50 33 56 37 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 57 35 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 53 36 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 43 32 51 40 / 0 10 0 10
P28 47 39 53 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>064-074>078-085>088.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
332 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...AS LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO CREEP BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LACK OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCES. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH...RESULTING IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS INTO WESTERN MO MID/LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF HILLSBORO-EUREKA-
CHANUTE. ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
PERSISTENT WEAK TO MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INTO A
CHILLY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...PROBABLY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
SHALLOW CHILLY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BE ON
THE RISE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES BY FRIDAY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S-50S BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
ADK
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS THE DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE MODEST TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES REGARDING VARIOUS SYNOPTIC FEATURES...MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL CHANCES OF AT LEAST ONE-QUARTER INCH LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING...MAY
ALSO SEE SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WOULD LOCALLY
ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...WESTERN AND NORTHERN KANSAS COULD BE
LOOKING AT ACCUMULATING SNOW...AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN SOUTH. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS NORTHWEST KS WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
MEANINGFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THERE IS STILL WAY TOO MUCH
WOBBLE IN THE GUIDANCE TO PINPOINT AN EXACT TRACK WITH ANY
ACCURACY.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW CLDS THAT
DEVELOPED IN KC METRO AND IN N CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WERE NOT HANDLED
WELL BY GFS/NAM...BUT AT LEAST RAP HAD FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON IT.
RAP SUGGESTS THAT KCNU WILL ESCAPE THE MVFR CIGS...BUT VFR DECK
WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
SUSPECT GIVEN RETURN FLOW...THAT VFR CIGS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.
HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 44 38 51 45 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 43 36 49 43 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 42 36 49 43 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 44 37 50 43 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 46 39 54 45 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 42 33 49 42 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 44 34 50 42 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 41 34 48 43 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 42 36 49 43 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 48 39 52 43 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 44 37 49 42 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 43 36 49 42 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 46 38 51 42 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
301 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
FOG DEVELOPED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ALONG A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS WHICH WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WAS
LOCATED IN EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. HRRR AND RAP WERE SIMILAR AND
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AROUND
1/4 MILE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THIS AXIS WHICH WILL BE LOCATED
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. GIVEN THIS AND THE 2 AM HUGOTON
OBSERVATION WILL GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE THE
MOISTURE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO EARLIER THIS
MORNING, WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
FROM WEST TO EAST. HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD WILL ERODE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE NEAR TERM MODELS. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS, THE RAP AND NAM BOTH AGREE THAT FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL
HAVE MORE SUN THAN SOUTH CENTRAL OR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVE THIS AGREEMENT WILL FAVOR THE WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND GUIDANCE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS WHILE TRENDING
TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE FURTHER EAST.
DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL MARGINAL FOR DRIZZLE LATER
THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 SO AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS
LEAVING MENTION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OUT EARLY TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND AN HIGHER
DEW POINTS BEING LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. BASED ON
THIS FOG ONCE AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
USE THE NAM, NMM, AND ARW AS A FIRST GUESS ON THE LOCATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR DIGHTON TO LIBERAL.
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE, STATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. UPPER 30S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DEW POINTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE JUST
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, NEAR THE ROCKIES. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
BY 08Z OR SO, AND LINGER THROUGH THE 14Z HOUR THURSDAY. OTHER
THAN THAT, THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID 50S
TO EVEN MID 60S, AS A LONG WARM SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL SET UP AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING. BY LATE FRIDAY, SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY GRACE OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM
BARBER TO PRATT TO STAFFORD. SATURDAY, THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE STACKED AS THE UPPER HIGH SLIDES EAST, AND SOME LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR IN THE SAME SOUTHEAST ZONES AS IT DID
ON FRIDAY, BUT THIS TIME ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL COME OFF THE ROCKIES AND FORM
INTO A CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME BARRELING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS,
CROSSING WESTERN SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD AIR WILL USHER INTO
KANSAS IN THE CENTER AND WEST SIDE OF THE EAST-MOVING UPPER LOW.
THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH THE EASTERN MOVING UPPER LOW, SHOULD
BEING SOME MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
FALL IS THE BIG QUESTION, AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL WAVERING
SOMEWHAT WITH THE PATH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN A FEW OF OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. BUT SINCE THAT IS 5.5 PERIODS OUT, I WILL NOT
PUT ANY SNOWFALL GRIDS IN JUST YET. AN SPS WAS ISSUED FOR THIS
STORM.
MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL DROP TO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S BY SUNDAY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE SNOW OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW LEFT OVER ON MONDAY, IN THE
WRAP-AROUND PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE. SLIGHT CHANCES
WILL SUFFICE FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT, FOR NOW. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN, DROPPING FROM THE MID
30S TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY MORNING TO THE LOWER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
STRATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW DRAWS MORE HUMID AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT GCK
BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z WEDNESDAY AND DDC BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BASED ON
THE LATEST BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP. IFR TO LOW MVFR
VISIBILIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT HAYS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
THE VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 37 55 42 / 0 10 0 10
GCK 50 33 56 37 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 57 35 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 53 36 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 43 32 51 40 / 0 10 0 10
P28 47 39 53 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ063-064-
076>078-085>088.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1207 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF EASTERN
KANSAS ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE 285-295K SURFACES MAY ALLOW ENOUGH MOISTENING FOR SOME
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL KS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A LESSENED THREAT OF FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES TOWARD FRIDAY. WEAK LEE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE
CONTINUED...RELATIVELY LIGHTER SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE LIKELYHOOD OF
STRATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION. AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE WILL
ALSO BE A FORECAST PROBLEM.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES...EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z/9TH ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER BOTH OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED GREATLY WITH RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH NORTH-SOUTH
OSCILLATION OF THE LOW TRACK. THEREFORE...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE REGARDING THE EXACT LOW TRACK AND FORECAST DETAILS. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE DRAWN UP NORTH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH...BUT THINK THE BETTER SURFACE-BASED
STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS
ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
TRACK...TO KEEP THIS MENTION IN FORECAST IN CENTRAL KS ALTHOUGH
BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE NORTHWEST/NORTH OF OUR COUNTIES.
AFTER A VERY MILD MID-DECEMBER WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK TO CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW CLDS THAT
DEVELOPED IN KC METRO AND IN N CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WERE NOT HANDLED
WELL BY GFS/NAM...BUT AT LEAST RAP HAD FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON IT.
RAP SUGGESTS THAT KCNU WILL ESCAPE THE MVFR CIGS...BUT VFR DECK
WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
SUSPECT GIVEN RETURN FLOW...THAT VFR CIGS WL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA ON TOMORROW. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 44 39 53 45 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 43 37 54 43 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 42 37 52 43 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 44 37 53 43 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 46 40 54 45 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 42 35 53 42 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 44 36 53 42 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 41 35 52 43 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 42 36 53 43 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 48 37 53 43 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 44 35 52 42 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 43 35 51 42 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 46 36 53 42 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1155 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
Surface high pressure continues to build southward today ahead of
the next weak shortwave, which will drop southeastward within the
northwest flow aloft. Meanwhile the edge of the stratus deck has
worked into far northeast KS this morning. The NAM and GFS forecast
has kept this stratus from building further into the forecast area
later this evening. The latest HRRR and RAP have now developed the
stratus further southward towards the I-70 corridor. It appears that
the models are cooling that near saturated layer once daytime mixing
has stopped. Across central KS with the exception of some high
clouds mostly clear skies may allow the boundary layer to cool
enough for fog. Although the soundings seem to indicate relatively
strong winds just above the surface, which may prevent this from
developing. If the stratus develops and or continues in the
northeast areas then the forecast lows will probably be too cool.
Otherwise most areas should drop into the mid to upper 20s.
With regards to precipitation early tomorrow morning. The models
have been trending much drier in the lower levels as the lift
increases in the saturated layers. The lift appears to be fairly
weak and only efficient for drizzle, but with the dry air in place
that drizzle will most likely not reach the ground. Temperatures are
also forecast to gradually rise tomorrow morning reaching above
freezing by late morning or around noon. So freezing precipitation
is looking unlikely at this point. Temperatures will warm as the
winds veer on the back side of the retreating surface high. There is
also an outside chance that if the lift is strong enough to generate
rain then sprinkles will be possible as advertised by the ECMWF and
GEM. This would most likely occur during the afternoon hours when
the wave is forecast to pass over the area. High temperatures
tomorrow should reach the around 40 for most locations.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
The long term forecast remains cloudy and dreary for the most
part with the bulk of the forecast focus on an impending large
storm system which should arrive by late Sunday into early next
week.
For Wednesday night through Saturday, the forecast area will be
entrenched in a very moist near-surface airmass. While there will
be ridging overhead, it appears that this will only help to keep
the surface airmass fairly stagnant through Friday and expect the
persistent low clouds to keep temperatures pretty well in check
with minimal diurnal temperature swings. There will also be
periods of drizzle and fog...particularly overnight and into the
morning hours...with weak but persistent lift within the moist
layer. The good news is that even with the clouds, temperatures
will be above freezing through Saturday night and any light
precipitation will fall as liquid. Also, as the weak progresses,
southerly low level winds will also advect warmer temperatures
into the area to the extent that even without sunshine the area
should be in the upper 50s to around 60 for high temperatures
Friday through Sunday.
Late Saturday into Sunday, a large storm system will be taking
shape over the western CONUS, and is scheduled to bring
precipitation into the local forecast area by late Sunday. While
model guidance is currently in rather strong agreement regarding
the evolution of this system, forecaster confidence remains toward
the low end. The reason for this low confidence lies in the
complex nature of the storm and also the run-to-run model
variability over the past few days. The main energy to impact the
local area will come from the southwestern CONUS, but will also
interact (unsure how much) with a strong northern stream short
wave trough. This interaction will strongly impact the atmospheric
temperature profiles on the north and northwest side of the storm
system and could have a profound impact on the local weather for
Sunday night into Monday night. One thing that is certain is that
this storm system will not lack moisture as it will have a strong
moisture feed ahead of it for several days into the Plains.
Current indications are that this event would be mainly rain for
the local area with some amounts greater than 1", but could mix
with snow or other winter weather types especially across north
central KS late in the event. The wild card is in how cold the
airmass is behind an incoming cold front that will undercut the
system. Lower resolution models can sometimes trend a bit too warm
with undercutting cold airmasses in the long range, but lack of
snow cover to the north supports a slightly warmer airmass. If
it should trend colder there would be more of a chance for winter
precip locally.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
Edge of MVFR stratus will probably remain across the KTOP and KFOE
terminals through 14Z, then there may be a windo of VFR conidtions
until the stratus lowers to MVFR during the afternoon hours at all
TAF sites. After 00Z low stratus and light fog will develop
across the terminals. Low MVFR ceilings will become IFR through
the evening and visibilities will drop to 3SM. There will also be
occasional drizzle through the evening hours.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1120 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY A -22C 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK CLOSED 500MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
ARIZONA. A 500MB DEFORMATION ZONE WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
ARIZONA SYSTEM AND EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST UTAH TO THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS
OBSERVED AT THE 700MB AND 500MB LEVEL AND A 700MB TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO OKLAHOMA. AN 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA WITH A 20 TO 25 KNOTS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND ADVECTING
WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEW POINTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO
TO THE SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A WEDGE OF
HIGHER DEW POINTS AT THE SURFACE WERE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THIS
STATIONARY FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
NEBRASKA ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS TO PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
FOR TONIGHT, A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SAME AREA WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AROUND 8 TO
12 MPH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
HELPED TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE AVAILABLE RETURN MOISTURE, SO
DEWPOINTS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO BE COLDER TONIGHT AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS I-70
TO AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS, SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP. THEN TOWARDS MORNING, THE FOG SHOULD EXPAND EASTWARD
INTO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, OR ANY DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FORECAST SURFACE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO
SHALLOW FOR DRIZZLE. TEMPS MAY INCREASE SLOWLY TOWARD MORNING AS
INCREASING DEWPOINTS MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY.
AREAS OF FOG COULD LINGER INTO MUCH OF THE MORNING, THEN SKIES
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FAR WEST TOWARDS THE COLORADO BORDER, AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS. HIGHS WILL
BE FAIRLY MILD OUT WEST, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S, WHILE COOLER 40S IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE JUST
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, NEAR THE ROCKIES. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
BY 08Z OR SO, AND LINGER THROUGH THE 14Z HOUR THURSDAY. OTHER
THAN THAT, THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID 50S
TO EVEN MID 60S, AS A LONG WARM SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL SET UP AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING. BY LATE FRIDAY, SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY GRACE OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM
BARBER TO PRATT TO STAFFORD. SATURDAY, THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE STACKED AS THE UPPER HIGH SLIDES EAST, AND SOME LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR IN THE SAME SOUTHEAST ZONES AS IT DID
ON FRIDAY, BUT THIS TIME ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL COME OFF THE ROCKIES AND FORM
INTO A CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME BARRELING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS,
CROSSING WESTERN SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD AIR WILL USHER INTO
KANSAS IN THE CENTER AND WEST SIDE OF THE EAST-MOVING UPPER LOW.
THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH THE EASTERN MOVING UPPER LOW, SHOULD
BEING SOME MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
FALL IS THE BIG QUESTION, AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL WAVERING
SOMEWHAT WITH THE PATH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN A FEW OF OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. BUT SINCE THAT IS 5.5 PERIODS OUT, I WILL NOT
PUT ANY SNOWFALL GRIDS IN JUST YET. AN SPS WAS ISSUED FOR THIS
STORM.
MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL DROP TO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S BY SUNDAY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE SNOW OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW LEFT OVER ON MONDAY, IN THE
WRAP-AROUND PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE. SLIGHT CHANCES
WILL SUFFICE FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT, FOR NOW. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN, DROPPING FROM THE MID
30S TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY MORNING TO THE LOWER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
STRATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW DRAWS MORE HUMID AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT GCK
BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z WEDNESDAY AND DDC BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BASED ON
THE LATEST BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP. IFR TO LOW MVFR
VISIBILIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT HAYS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
THE VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 47 41 59 / 0 0 10 0
GCK 29 49 37 60 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 31 57 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 30 54 44 63 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 25 41 38 56 / 0 0 10 0
P28 30 46 41 58 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1152 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.AVIATION...
AT BIT OF BR ALG THE TX COAST...VSBY 3/4 TO 3 MILES OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE... VFR WX TO HOLD THRU SUNRISE ALL OTHER TAF SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
UPDATE...WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH WASHED OUT AS IT
FILTERED THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTH LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING. A STRATCU DECK MOVING SW FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY HAS BEEN PICKED UP BY THE RUC AND LOOKS TO MOVE INTO CEN LA
LATER TNITE. WENT AHEAD AND MADE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT UPWARD ON
TEMPS THERE BY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LESS FOG THAN
LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED MIXING AND CLOUDS.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
AVIATION...
HI LVL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NW... OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT
RULES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...WITH A
SECONDARY RE-ENFORCING HIGH TO MOVE S ACROSS THE MS VALLEY LATER
THIS EVENING. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NE WINDS...EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 ACROSS
C LA WHERE THE COOLEST AIR WILL RESIDE.
INCREASING MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED BY WED
AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH THE COOL AIR...WILL HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS
DOWN TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FURTHER TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR THU MORNING.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS TX MAY GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA FOR SE TX/C LA BY THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. POPS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN LESS THAN 20% FOR THIS. BY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST AND REPLACED BY
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL COME WITH A
SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF LOW TO SWEEP ACROSS TX AND THE ARKLATEX MON. BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH EITHER AN ENHANCED AREA OR
LINE OF TSRA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE CLEARING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THIS MODEL RUN...EXPECTING COOLER
AND DRY WEATHER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DML
MARINE...
NW WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL INCREASE A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10-15 KTS
AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME E AND SE
AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST...AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 41 61 43 62 47 / 0 0 0 10 10
KBPT 43 63 46 62 50 / 0 0 10 10 10
KAEX 39 58 38 59 44 / 0 0 0 10 10
KLFT 41 61 41 62 45 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
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&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1047 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
THEN LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...PRECIPITATION SHIELD NOW WARRANTING AT LEAST LIKELY OR
BETTER POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN ALOFT. MOST OF
THIS IS FALLING AS RAIN EXCEPT IN A FEW MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHICH ARE
STILL IN THE LOWER 30S. HAVE KEPT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE
AS AREAS LIKE FRANKLIN AND OXFORD COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS A LACK
OF OBSERVATIONS ARE LIKELY STILL EXPERIENCING A WINTRY MIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST REMAINS A TRICKY ONE...HOWEVER
THINGS ARE MUCH LESS COMPLICATED THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. UPPER LOW PRES IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT INVOF
OF KNYC. THIS HAS FOR THE MOST PART FLOODED...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO...THE AREA WITH WARMTH IN THE MID LEVELS. AT THE
SURFACE...WARMTH HAS ALSO INVADED MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE ONLY
REMAINING SUB- FREEZING HOLDOUTS BEING THE WRN ME MTNS.
EARLY THIS MORNING DRY SLOT HAD PUSHED THRU THE AREA...BRINGING AN
END TO STEADY PCPN AND LEADING TO MORE DZ/FZDZ. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MORNING...HOWEVER IR SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWS COLDER CLOUD
TOPS ENCROACHING FROM THE S...INDICATING THAT THE COLUMN IS
BECOMING SATURATED ONCE MORE. WITH THIS WILL COME ANOTHER ROUND OF
PCPN...AS ELY INFLOW REFIRES OFF THE GULF OF ME. THE DEEPENING
UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS QUEBEC WILL BE THE
MECHANISM BEHIND THIS STRENGTHENING ELY MID LEVEL JET. THE FOCUS
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS WRN ME...THOUGH
INITIALLY NH WILL ALSO GET IN ON PCPN AS IT LIFTS NWD. HIGHEST QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE THE WRN ME MTNS...WHERE THE ELY FLOW LINGERS THE
LONGEST AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES AMOUNTS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES.
EVEN STILL QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR SO FOR THESE
AREAS...AND LESS AS YOU HEAD S AND W. AS SUCH HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLOOD WATCH...AS ONLY NUISANCE AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING SEEMS A
POSSIBILITY WITH THESE QPF AMOUNTS.
AS FOR THE WINTER HEADLINES...I FELT CONFIDENT THAT LOW AND MID
LEVEL WARMTH WILL RESULT IN RNFL FOR ALL BUT THE NRN THIRD OF THE
CWFA. ANY REMAINING WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN DROPPED.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN ARE THE WRN ME MTNS...WHERE TEMPS REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING. IN ADDITION...SFC HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO QUEBEC TODAY. THIS MAY REINVIGORATE THE COLD AIR DAMMING...OR
AT LEAST KEEP THINGS STEADY STATE. THIS PROLONGS THE THREAT OF
SN...PL...AND ZR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM RANGELEY TO JACKMAN SHOW
SHOW A DECENT WARM NOSE NEAR 800 MB FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH THE
COLD AIR MAXIMIZED AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FT. GIVEN THE HEIGHT OF
THE WARM NOSE THAT DEFINITELY BRINGS PL INTO PLAY...WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ICING IN THAT ZONE ABOVE 1000 FT. SREF ZR
PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE PERCENTAGE OF
FROZEN PCPN INCREASING AS HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN
TODAY...INDICATING THE COLUMN MAY TRY AND DYNAMICALLY COOL SOME.
TAKING THIS ALL INTO ACCOUNT I BLENDED THE 10/00Z ECMWF WITH THE
NAM AND CMC REGIONAL TO PRODUCE THERMAL PROFILES. THE RESULTING WX
GRIDS YIELDED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SN/PL WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF
ZR FOR THE WRN ME MTNS. AS A RESULT I HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THESE ZONES...AND BRACKET THEM WITH A
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MAINLY A LIGHT ICING WITH ANY SNWFL. IN THE
END FEEL THAT THIS IS A BETTER RESULT THAN LEAVING WARNINGS UP
FROM HEAVY PCPN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEB GRAPHICS
REPRESENT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. ELY
INFLOW OF MOISTURE WILL BE CUT OFF AND SHUNTED NWD HOWEVER...AND
WE/LL BE LEFT WITH SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER THE LOW CENTER.
HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL
ASSIST IN THE LIFTING PROCESS. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE WORKING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...GRADUALLY CHANGING SHRA TO SHSN AWAY
FROM THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH
ITS MOIST AND UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND
PRODUCING INSTABILITY SNW SHOWERS THU NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE LOW FINALLY DRIFTS FAR ENOUGH E
TO ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING AS A STRONG SFC/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS E.
EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATED WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU MID
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION.
WILL SEE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE ARE ALL TERMINALS THRU THIS MORNING AS
WELL. STEADY PCPN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE S THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
RNFL FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH THE ONLY RISK OF MIXED PCPN AT KHIE
AND KLEB. NELY WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THRU THE MORNING.
GRADUALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THU.
LONG TERM...SOME LINGERING SCT RN/SNW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY PSBLY LOWERING CONDS TO MVFR AT TIMES OTHERWISE VFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AOA 35 KTS. BAYS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO
SCA. EXPECTED WINDS TO DIMINISH ON ALL WATERS TO 25 KTS BEFORE
12Z. SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THRU THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO BELOW SCA CONDS BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE NW FLOW FROM THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 9.7 FT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE /AT PORTLAND/ COMBINED WITH ONSHORE
WINDS AND LARGE OFFSHORE SEAS MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS AT 122 PM TODAY. HIGH SURF
WILL ALSO CAUSE SOME BEACH EROSION.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ007>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-
013.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
551 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
THEN LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WILL LEAVE LIKELY/CAT
POP IN PLACE AS DZ/FZDZ IS STILL WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
DUAL-POL RADAR CONFIRMS THE ASOS OBS...AS IT SUGGESTS LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS ARE WELL CORRELATED NEAR SPHERICAL METEOROLOGICAL
TARGETS...IN OTHER WORDS DZ.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST REMAINS A TRICKY ONE...HOWEVER
THINGS ARE MUCH LESS COMPLICATED THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. UPPER LOW PRES IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT INVOF
OF KNYC. THIS HAS FOR THE MOST PART FLOODED...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO...THE AREA WITH WARMTH IN THE MID LEVELS. AT THE
SURFACE...WARMTH HAS ALSO INVADED MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE ONLY
REMAINING SUB- FREEZING HOLDOUTS BEING THE WRN ME MTNS.
EARLY THIS MORNING DRY SLOT HAD PUSHED THRU THE AREA...BRINGING AN
END TO STEADY PCPN AND LEADING TO MORE DZ/FZDZ. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MORNING...HOWEVER IR SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWS COLDER CLOUD
TOPS ENCROACHING FROM THE S...INDICATING THAT THE COLUMN IS
BECOMING SATURATED ONCE MORE. WITH THIS WILL COME ANOTHER ROUND OF
PCPN...AS ELY INFLOW REFIRES OFF THE GULF OF ME. THE DEEPENING
UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS QUEBEC WILL BE THE
MECHANISM BEHIND THIS STRENGTHENING ELY MID LEVEL JET. THE FOCUS
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS WRN ME...THOUGH
INITIALLY NH WILL ALSO GET IN ON PCPN AS IT LIFTS NWD. HIGHEST QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE THE WRN ME MTNS...WHERE THE ELY FLOW LINGERS THE
LONGEST AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES AMOUNTS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES.
EVEN STILL QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR SO FOR THESE
AREAS...AND LESS AS YOU HEAD S AND W. AS SUCH HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLOOD WATCH...AS ONLY NUISANCE AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING SEEMS A
POSSIBILITY WITH THESE QPF AMOUNTS.
AS FOR THE WINTER HEADLINES...I FELT CONFIDENT THAT LOW AND MID
LEVEL WARMTH WILL RESULT IN RNFL FOR ALL BUT THE NRN THIRD OF THE
CWFA. ANY REMAINING WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN DROPPED.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN ARE THE WRN ME MTNS...WHERE TEMPS REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING. IN ADDITION...SFC HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO QUEBEC TODAY. THIS MAY REINVIGORATE THE COLD AIR DAMMING...OR
AT LEAST KEEP THINGS STEADY STATE. THIS PROLONGS THE THREAT OF
SN...PL...AND ZR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM RANGELEY TO JACKMAN SHOW
SHOW A DECENT WARM NOSE NEAR 800 MB FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH THE
COLD AIR MAXIMIZED AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FT. GIVEN THE HEIGHT OF
THE WARM NOSE THAT DEFINITELY BRINGS PL INTO PLAY...WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ICING IN THAT ZONE ABOVE 1000 FT. SREF ZR
PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE PERCENTAGE OF
FROZEN PCPN INCREASING AS HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN
TODAY...INDICATING THE COLUMN MAY TRY AND DYNAMICALLY COOL SOME.
TAKING THIS ALL INTO ACCOUNT I BLENDED THE 10/00Z ECMWF WITH THE
NAM AND CMC REGIONAL TO PRODUCE THERMAL PROFILES. THE RESULTING WX
GRIDS YIELDED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SN/PL WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF
ZR FOR THE WRN ME MTNS. AS A RESULT I HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THESE ZONES...AND BRACKET THEM WITH A
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MAINLY A LIGHT ICING WITH ANY SNWFL. IN THE
END FEEL THAT THIS IS A BETTER RESULT THAN LEAVING WARNINGS UP
FROM HEAVY PCPN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEB GRAPHICS
REPRESENT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. ELY
INFLOW OF MOISTURE WILL BE CUT OFF AND SHUNTED NWD HOWEVER...AND
WE/LL BE LEFT WITH SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER THE LOW CENTER.
HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL
ASSIST IN THE LIFTING PROCESS. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE WORKING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...GRADUALLY CHANGING SHRA TO SHSN AWAY
FROM THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH
ITS MOIST AND UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND
PRODUCING INSTABILITY SNW SHOWERS THU NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE LOW FINALLY DRIFTS FAR ENOUGH E
TO ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING AS A STRONG SFC/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS E.
EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATED WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU MID
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION.
WILL SEE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE ARE ALL TERMINALS THRU THIS MORNING AS
WELL. STEADY PCPN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE S THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
RNFL FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH THE ONLY RISK OF MIXED PCPN AT KHIE.
NELY WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THRU THE MORNING. GRADUALLY IFR
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THU.
LONG TERM...SOME LINGERING SCT RN/SNW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY PSBLY LOWERING CONDS TO MVFR AT TIMES OTHERWISE VFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AOA 35 KTS. BAYS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO
SCA. EXPECTED WINDS TO DIMINISH ON ALL WATERS TO 25 KTS BEFORE
12Z. SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THRU THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO BELOW SCA CONDS BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE NW FLOW FROM THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 9.7 FT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE /AT PORTLAND/ COMBINED WITH ONSHORE
WINDS AND LARGE OFFSHORE SEAS MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS AT 122 PM TODAY. HIGH SURF
WILL ALSO CAUSE SOME BEACH EROSION.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ007>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-
013.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151-
153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...LEGRO
MARINE...LEGRO/MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
413 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
THEN LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
THE FORECAST REMAINS A TRICKY ONE...HOWEVER THINGS ARE MUCH LESS
COMPLICATED THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. UPPER LOW PRES
IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT INVOF OF KNYC. THIS HAS FOR THE
MOST PART FLOODED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO...THE AREA WITH WARMTH IN
THE MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...WARMTH HAS ALSO INVADED MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH THE ONLY REMAINING SUB-FREEZING HOLDOUTS BEING THE
WRN ME MTNS.
EARLY THIS MORNING DRY SLOT HAD PUSHED THRU THE AREA...BRINGING AN
END TO STEADY PCPN AND LEADING TO MORE DZ/FZDZ. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MORNING...HOWEVER IR SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWS COLDER CLOUD
TOPS ENCROACHING FROM THE S...INDICATING THAT THE COLUMN IS
BECOMING SATURATED ONCE MORE. WITH THIS WILL COME ANOTHER ROUND OF
PCPN...AS ELY INFLOW REFIRES OFF THE GULF OF ME. THE DEEPENING
UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS QUEBEC WILL BE THE
MECHANISM BEHIND THIS STRENGTHENING ELY MID LEVEL JET. THE FOCUS
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS WRN ME...THOUGH
INITIALLY NH WILL ALSO GET IN ON PCPN AS IT LIFTS NWD. HIGHEST QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE THE WRN ME MTNS...WHERE THE ELY FLOW LINGERS THE
LONGEST AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES AMOUNTS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES.
EVEN STILL QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR SO FOR THESE
AREAS...AND LESS AS YOU HEAD S AND W. AS SUCH HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLOOD WATCH...AS ONLY NUISANCE AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING SEEMS A
POSSIBILITY WITH THESE QPF AMOUNTS.
AS FOR THE WINTER HEADLINES...I FELT CONFIDENT THAT LOW AND MID
LEVEL WARMTH WILL RESULT IN RNFL FOR ALL BUT THE NRN THIRD OF THE
CWFA. ANY REMAINING WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN DROPPED.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN ARE THE WRN ME MTNS...WHERE TEMPS REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING. IN ADDITION...SFC HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO QUEBEC TODAY. THIS MAY REINVIGORATE THE COLD AIR DAMMING...OR
AT LEAST KEEP THINGS STEADY STATE. THIS PROLONGS THE THREAT OF
SN...PL...AND ZR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM RANGELEY TO JACKMAN SHOW
SHOW A DECENT WARM NOSE NEAR 800 MB FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH THE
COLD AIR MAXIMIZED AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FT. GIVEN THE HEIGHT OF
THE WARM NOSE THAT DEFINITELY BRINGS PL INTO PLAY...WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ICING IN THAT ZONE ABOVE 1000 FT. SREF ZR
PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE PERCENTAGE OF
FROZEN PCPN INCREASING AS HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN
TODAY...INDICATING THE COLUMN MAY TRY AND DYNAMICALLY COOL SOME.
TAKING THIS ALL INTO ACCOUNT I BLENDED THE 10/00Z ECMWF WITH THE
NAM AND CMC REGIONAL TO PRODUCE THERMAL PROFILES. THE RESULTING WX
GRIDS YIELDED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SN/PL WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF
ZR FOR THE WRN ME MTNS. AS A RESULT I HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THESE ZONES...AND BRACKET THEM WITH A
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MAINLY A LIGHT ICING WITH ANY SNWFL. IN THE
END FEEL THAT THIS IS A BETTER RESULT THAN LEAVING WARNINGS UP
FROM HEAVY PCPN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEB GRAPHICS
REPRESENT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. ELY
INFLOW OF MOISTURE WILL BE CUT OFF AND SHUNTED NWD HOWEVER...AND
WE/LL BE LEFT WITH SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER THE LOW CENTER.
HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL
ASSIST IN THE LIFTING PROCESS. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE WORKING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...GRADUALLY CHANGING SHRA TO SHSN AWAY
FROM THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH
ITS MOIST AND UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND
PRODUCING INSTABILITY SNW SHOWERS THU NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE LOW FINALLY DRIFTS FAR ENOUGH E
TO ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING AS A STRONG SFC/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS E.
EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATED WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU MID
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION.
WILL SEE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE ARE ALL TERMINALS THRU THIS MORNING AS
WELL. STEADY PCPN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE S THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
RNFL FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH THE ONLY RISK OF MIXED PCPN AT KHIE.
NELY WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THRU THE MORNING. GRADUALLY IFR
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THU.
LONG TERM...SOME LINGERING SCT RN/SNW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY PSBLY LOWERING CONDS TO MVFR AT TIMES OTHERWISE VFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AOA 35 KTS. BAYS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO
SCA. EXPECTED WINDS TO DIMINISH ON ALL WATERS TO 25 KTS BEFORE
12Z. SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THRU THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO BELOW SCA CONDS BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE NW FLOW FROM THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 9.7 FT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE /AT PORTLAND/ COMBINED WITH ONSHORE
WINDS AND LARGE OFFSHORE SEAS MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS AT 122 PM TODAY. HIGH SURF
WILL ALSO CAUSE SOME BEACH EROSION.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ007>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-
013.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151-
153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...LEGRO
MARINE...LEGRO/MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1040 PM EST THU DEC 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW ALONG ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL TAPER DOWN
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AND WARMER FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LATEST SW TROF CLEARING OUR ERN
PERIPHERY SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA AROUND THE LINGERING
PARENT LOW. WITH THIS PASSING AND A POCKET OF DRY SFC AIR MOVING
IN...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED DOWN ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
SEEING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN A
NARROW CORRIDOR THROUGH FOREST COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN THE EARLY FRI MORNING HOURS. CANCELLED
THE ADVISORY FOR FOREST COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS PASSING QUICKLY THROUGH WITH
DEWPOINTS ALREADY REBOUNDING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. BEGINNING TO
SEE DEWPOINTS BOUNCE BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ERN OHIO. THIS TOUCHES ON THE NEXT CHALLENGE OF THE
EVENING...THE SKY FORECAST. RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN H9 INVERSION...RESULTING
IN THE FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS. THE QUESTION THAT ARISES IS WHERE
THIS MOISTURE WILL BE MANIFESTED. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DEWPOINT
SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA ARE SIGNIFICANT AND UNDER PROGGED BY MOST
GUIDANCE. FLOW TONIGHT WILL REMAIN WNW...SO DOWNSTREAM LAKE
MOISTURE WONT BE IN PLAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS
OHIO HAVE COME UP...BUT IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SATURATE BELOW H9
TO GENERATE THE STRATUS. ATTM...HIGH CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND SO
WILL KEEP CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE FORECAST...BUT CLOUD
BASES WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.
TAX
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO GET TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE BUILDING IN
ALOFT...WHICH MAY KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER...A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE
SHORT TERM IS DEALING WITH THE VERY SHALLOW AREA OF MOISTURE IN
THE LOWEST LEVELS AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO ANY
PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...PARTICULARLY EARLY ON
WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE RESULT. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY...AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING DUE TO HOW
SHALLOW THE MOISTURE LAYER IS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS. WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY WITH COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVER ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS HAS WORKED DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO MOST SITES ALREADY...AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ALL SITES GO VFR SHORTLY. NAM/RUC
LIKE THE IDEA OF BUILDING STRATUS BACK INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER REGIONAL FOG PRODUCT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A LACK OF UPSTREAM SATURATION AND CLOUDS...AND OWING TO
THE MOIST BIAS OF THE NAM...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY. WHILE
SOME MODEST MOISTURE IN THE FL010-020 LAYER SEEMS LIKELY...IT
SHOULD NOT REALLY AMOUNT TO A PARTICULARLY COHERENT CLOUD DECK
GIVEN THE PARAMETERS ON MODELS OTHER THAN THE NAM. AS SUCH...JUST
A NOMINAL FEW GROUP WAS CARRIED AT ALL SITES AWAY FROM LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SOME STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING. FRIES
OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG HIGH PRES SHOULD KEEP GENL VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
942 PM EST THU DEC 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW ALONG ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL TAPER DOWN
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AND WARMER FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LATEST SW TROF CLEARING OUR ERN
PERIPHERY SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA AROUND THE LINGERING
PARENT LOW. WITH THIS PASSING AND A POCKET OF DRY SFC AIR MOVING
IN...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED DOWN ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
SEEING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN A
NARROW CORRIDOR THROUGH FOREST COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN THE EARLY FRI MORNING HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS PASSING QUICKLY THROUGH WITH
DEWPOINTS ALREADY REBOUNDING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. BEGINNING TO
SEE DEWPOINTS BOUNCE BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ERN OHIO. THIS TOUCHES ON THE NEXT CHALLENGE OF THE
EVENING...THE SKY FORECAST. RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN H9 INVERSION...RESULTING
IN THE FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS. THE QUESTION THAT ARISES IS WHERE
THIS MOISTURE WILL BE MANIFESTED. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DEWPOINT
SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA ARE SIGNIFICANT AND UNDER PROGGED BY MOST
GUIDANCE. FLOW TONIGHT WILL REMAIN WNW...SO DOWNSTREAM LAKE
MOISTURE WONT BE IN PLAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS
OHIO HAVE COME UP...BUT IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SATURATE BELOW H9
TO GENERATE THE STRATUS. ATTM...HIGH CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND SO
WILL KEEP CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE FORECAST...BUT CLOUD
BASES WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.
TAX
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 25KTS ON AVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL AROUND 10 DEGREES OR SO ON
AVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS GUSTY SFC WINDS KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO GET TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE BUILDING IN
ALOFT...WHICH MAY KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER...A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE
SHORT TERM IS DEALING WITH THE VERY SHALLOW AREA OF MOISTURE IN
THE LOWEST LEVELS AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO ANY
PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...PARTICULARLY EARLY ON
WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE RESULT. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY...AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING DUE TO HOW
SHALLOW THE MOISTURE LAYER IS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS. WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY WITH COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVER ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS HAS WORKED DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO MOST SITES ALREADY...AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ALL SITES GO VFR SHORTLY. NAM/RUC
LIKE THE IDEA OF BUILDING STRATUS BACK INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER REGIONAL FOG PRODUCT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A LACK OF UPSTREAM SATURATION AND CLOUDS...AND OWING TO
THE MOIST BIAS OF THE NAM...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY. WHILE
SOME MODEST MOISTURE IN THE FL010-020 LAYER SEEMS LIKELY...IT
SHOULD NOT REALLY AMOUNT TO A PARTICULARLY COHERENT CLOUD DECK
GIVEN THE PARAMETERS ON MODELS OTHER THAN THE NAM. AS SUCH...JUST
A NOMINAL FEW GROUP WAS CARRIED AT ALL SITES AWAY FROM LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SOME STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING. FRIES
OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG HIGH PRES SHOULD KEEP GENL VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ009.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
618 PM EST THU DEC 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW ALONG ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL TAPER DOWN
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AND WARMER FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS YET ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES AROUND THE PARENT LOW. THIS IS PROVIDING
SOME ENHANCEMENT IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO ENHANCED BY DOWNSTREAM
FLOW FROM LAKE ERIE. AS THE SNOWBAND MAKES ITS WAY IN...IT WILL HIT
A WALL OF MUCH DRIER AIR. DEW POINTS ACROSS WRN PA HAVE DROPPED
6-10F AS A POCKET OF DRY AIR MOVES THROUGH. THIS DRY AIR HAS ALREADY
DISSIPATED THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS MERCER...VENANGO...AND
CLARION COUNTY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO QUELL THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
BAND ENTERING FOREST COUNTY. DECIDING TO KEEP THE ADVISORY UP
THROUGH 3AM FOR FOREST COUNTY...BUT WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY FOR THE
REMAINING COUNTIES ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH QUICKLY WITH
DEWPOINTS REBOUNDING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
DEWPOINTS BOUNCE BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS WEST AND
CENTRAL OH. THIS TOUCHES ON THE NEXT CHALLENGE OF THE EVENING...THE
SKY FORECAST. RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN H9 INVERSION...RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF
LOW STRATUS. THE QUESTION THAT ARISES IS WHERE THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
MANIFESTED. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DEWPOINT SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA ARE
SIGNIFICANT AND UNDER PROGGED BY MOST GUIDANCE. FLOW TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN WNW...SO DOWNSTREAM LAKE MOISTURE WONT BE IN PLAY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS OHIO HAVE COME UP...BUT IT MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO SATURATE BELOW H9 TO GENERATE THE STRATUS. ATTM...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND SO WILL KEEP CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE
FORECAST...BUT CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.
TAX
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 25KTS ON AVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL AROUND 10 DEGREES OR SO ON
AVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS GUSTY SFC WINDS KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO GET TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE BUILDING IN
ALOFT...WHICH MAY KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER...A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE
SHORT TERM IS DEALING WITH THE VERY SHALLOW AREA OF MOISTURE IN
THE LOWEST LEVELS AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO ANY
PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...PARTICULARLY EARLY ON
WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE RESULT. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY...AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING DUE TO HOW
SHALLOW THE MOISTURE LAYER IS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS. WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY WITH COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVER ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS HAS WORKED DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO MOST SITES ALREADY...AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ALL SITES GO VFR SHORTLY. NAM/RUC
LIKE THE IDEA OF BUILDING STRATUS BACK INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER REGIONAL FOG PRODUCT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A LACK OF UPSTREAM SATURATION AND CLOUDS...AND OWING TO
THE MOIST BIAS OF THE NAM...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY. WHILE
SOME MODEST MOISTURE IN THE FL010-020 LAYER SEEMS LIKELY...IT
SHOULD NOT REALLY AMOUNT TO A PARTICULARLY COHERENT CLOUD DECK
GIVEN THE PARAMETERS ON MODELS OTHER THAN THE NAM. AS SUCH...JUST
A NOMINAL FEW GROUP WAS CARRIED AT ALL SITES AWAY FROM LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SOME STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING. FRIES
OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG HIGH PRES SHOULD KEEP GENL VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ007>009-015-016.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
403 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR RDG
STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW NEWD TOWARD HUDSON BAY...SUPPORTING A
SFC RDG AXIS FM JAMES BAY SWWD INTO WI. LOCAL 12Z RAOBS UNDER THIS
RDG AXIS SHOW A SHARP INVRN BTWN ABOUT H925 AND H95...WITH HI RH BLO
THIS SHARP INVRN. SFC OBS/STLT IMAGERY INDICATE THE LO CLDS HAVE
FINALLY DISSIPATED OVER UPR MI CLOSER TO THE CORE OF DRIER LLVL AIR
IN ONTARIO. THE LO CLD IS MORE EXTENSIVE OVER MN AND THE SW HALF OF
WI...CLOSER TO SOMEWHAT HIER INVRN TO H9/DEEPER LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z MPX RAOB. THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS STREAMING ACRS THE CWA IN
THE NNW FLOW E OF UPR RDG AXIS...BUT THE 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS ARE SO
DRY IN THE MID LVLS THESE CLDS ARE THIN...AND THERE IS NO PCPN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LO CLD TRENDS/IMPACT
ON TEMPS.
TNGT...AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER NEAR JAMES BAY SHIFTS TO THE NE...
ANOTHER HI CENTER AT THE SW EDGE OF THE RDG AXIS OVER WI IS PROGGED
TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE LLVL WIND FIELD OVER THE UPR
LKS. THE RESULT WL BE A SHIFT IN LLVL WIND DIRECTION TO A MORE W-NW
FLOW. THIS CHANGE SHOULD ALLOW A RETURN OF THE MORE EXTENSIVE LO
CLDS NOW DOMINATING MN AND WRN LK SUP. THE LO CLDS WL SLOWEST IN
RETURNING TO THE E AND SCENTRAL CWA...SO EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS
NEAR THE LO END OF GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA. SINCE THESE LO TEMPS ARE
FCST TO FALL THRU FAIRLY HI DEWPTS OBSVD THIS AFTN WITH LGT WINDS
UNDER THE HI PRES RDG...ADDED SOME FOG TO SOME PLACES IN THESE
AREAS. ALSO OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DZ
OVER THE KEWEENAW LATE WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE W WIND
COMPONENT WITHIN SHALLOW MSTR WEDGE/ LOWEST TEMPS NEAR -7C AT LO
INVRN BASE INADEQUATE TO ENSURE ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION.
THU...WITH LLVL NW FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE UNDER PERSISTENT UPR
RDG/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT THE MOST LO CLD COVER IN AREAS
OVER THE W AND E DOWNWIND OF LK SUP. LINGERING FOG/FREEZING DZ AND
FLURRIES EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MRNG. THE
SCENTRAL CWA INFLUENCED BY THE DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW WL SEE THE MOST
SUNSHINE. MIXING TO JUST H925 YIELDS HI TEMPS RISING INTO THE 30S IN
THESE AREAS THAT HAVE MORE SUN...BUT MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE LOWER WHERE
THERE ARE MORE CLDS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014
THE ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT...00Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHT VALUES EXCEED
ANYTHING SEEN DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN 1979-2009 ON THE
CFSR. THUS...THE AREA WILL BE EXPERIENCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA TO START THE PERIOD (FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) WILL BE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH SATURDAY LEADING TO THE RIDGE TO
LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...THAT WARMING
PERIOD WILL SEE HIGHS GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH THE 30S FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK AND IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. THE ONE
ITEM OF CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ALTHOUGH THE AREA BROKE
OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE LOW
CLOUDS OVER MINNESOTA TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND SLOWLY SHIFT BACK
TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS THROUGH. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE
SOLUTIONS WITH THIS...BUT LIKE THE IDEA SHOWN BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MOVING OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY.
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
AND PULL ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE U.P. FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING UNTIL A SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THAT WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY
DREARY PERIOD WITH LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE/FOG. WILL LEAN
ON THE BETTER PERFORMING RAW MODEL GUIDANCE (IN THESE LOW CLOUD
SITUATIONS) FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUS...IF ANY DRIZZLE OCCURS IT SHOULD STAY IN LIQUID FORM
UNLESS IF FALLS ON ANY UNTREATED OR EXISTING COLD SURFACES.
THE ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH (STRETCHING FROM A LOW IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY) WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO COLDER AIR
GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA...WILL SHOW A WEST/EAST TRANSITION TO
MORE FROZEN PRECIPITATION MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVAL...MAY BE SOME STRUGGLE FOR ICE
CRYSTALS INITIALLY UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR
ARRIVE...GENERALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT.
ONE INTERESTING ITEM FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK IS THE
INTERACTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THE MODELS VARY ON THE HANDLING OF THESE WAVES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT EITHER WAY IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR TUESDAY AND DEPARTING WEDNESDAY (WHILE AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY).
THESE VARYING SOLUTIONS LEAD TO A WIDE VARIETY OF IDEAS ON WHEN THE
COLD AIR MOVES IN AND HOW COLD THE 850MB TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT THE 850MB TEMP ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MEAN...THERE
IS AN EXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN GEFS MEMBERS WITH THE MEAN
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE 12Z GFS. THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
ALSO SHOWS A LITTLE WARMER IDEA FOR THAT PERIOD...BUT THEN THE 12Z
ECMWF TRENDED COLDER AND TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS. WITH MODELS USUALLY
STRUGGLING ON THE INTERACTION OF SHORTWAVES AT THAT TIME
RANGE...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS (ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS) THAN SHOWN BY THE RAW MODELS. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW LOW END
CHANCE POPS TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LES. IF THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES PAN OUT AND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...COULD SEE
PERIODS OF STRONGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE SNOW BELTS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014
ALTHOUGH SOME LO CLDS LINGER OVER UPR MI...LOWERING INVRN BASE IN
THE PRESENCE OF SOME DAYTIME HEATING...AND DOWNSLOPE SW WIND
COMPONENT AT IWD...HAVE FINALLY CAUSED THESE CLDS TO DIMINISH A BIT.
THERE COULD BE SOME LO CIGS AT TIMES THIS AFTN...BUT EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. BUT AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE W TNGT IN
THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING...MORE EXTENSIVE LO CLDS OVER MN/
WRN LK SUP WL RETURN. THE LOWEST LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME FZDZ/
FLURRIES WL IMPACT CMX LATE TNGT/THU MRNG...WHEN AND WHERE THE W
WIND WL PRESENT A SHARPER UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. WITH A DOWNSLOPE
WIND...SAW HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO AVOID THE LOWER CONDITIONS FOR A
LONGER TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014
LIGHT WINDS UNDER A SURFACE HI PRES RIDGE WILL BECOME NW AND
INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS ON THU AND THU NIGHT AS A HI CENTER
STRENGTHENS IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS HI SHIFTS
TO THE E THRU THE WEEKEND...THIS FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SW BUT REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH UNUSUALLY HI STABILITY OVER THE WATERS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MON...N WINDS WILL INCREASE
UP TO 25-30 KTS UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF HI PRES
MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
332 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR RDG
STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW NEWD TOWARD HUDSON BAY...SUPPORTING A
SFC RDG AXIS FM JAMES BAY SWWD INTO WI. LOCAL 12Z RAOBS UNDER THIS
RDG AXIS SHOW A SHARP INVRN BTWN ABOUT H925 AND H95...WITH HI RH BLO
THIS SHARP INVRN. SFC OBS/STLT IMAGERY INDICATE THE LO CLDS HAVE
FINALLY DISSIPATED OVER UPR MI CLOSER TO THE CORE OF DRIER LLVL AIR
IN ONTARIO. THE LO CLD IS MORE EXTENSIVE OVER MN AND THE SW HALF OF
WI...CLOSER TO SOMEWHAT HIER INVRN TO H9/DEEPER LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z MPX RAOB. THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS STREAMING ACRS THE CWA IN
THE NNW FLOW E OF UPR RDG AXIS...BUT THE 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS ARE SO
DRY IN THE MID LVLS THESE CLDS ARE THIN...AND THERE IS NO PCPN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LO CLD TRENDS/IMPACT
ON TEMPS.
TNGT...AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER NEAR JAMES BAY SHIFTS TO THE NE...
ANOTHER HI CENTER AT THE SW EDGE OF THE RDG AXIS OVER WI IS PROGGED
TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE LLVL WIND FIELD OVER THE UPR
LKS. THE RESULT WL BE A SHIFT IN LLVL WIND DIRECTION TO A MORE W-NW
FLOW. THIS CHANGE SHOULD ALLOW A RETURN OF THE MORE EXTENSIVE LO
CLDS NOW DOMINATING MN AND WRN LK SUP. THE LO CLDS WL SLOWEST IN
RETURNING TO THE E AND SCENTRAL CWA...SO EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS
NEAR THE LO END OF GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA. SINCE THESE LO TEMPS ARE
FCST TO FALL THRU FAIRLY HI DEWPTS OBSVD THIS AFTN WITH LGT WINDS
UNDER THE HI PRES RDG...ADDED SOME FOG TO SOME PLACES IN THESE
AREAS. ALSO OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DZ
OVER THE KEWEENAW LATE WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE W WIND
COMPONENT WITHIN SHALLOW MSTR WEDGE/ LOWEST TEMPS NEAR -7C AT LO
INVRN BASE INADEQUATE TO ENSURE ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION.
THU...WITH LLVL NW FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE UNDER PERSISTENT UPR
RDG/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT THE MOST LO CLD COVER IN AREAS
OVER THE W AND E DOWNWIND OF LK SUP. LINGERING FOG/FREEZING DZ AND
FLURRIES EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MRNG. THE
SCENTRAL CWA INFLUENCED BY THE DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW WL SEE THE MOST
SUNSHINE. MIXING TO JUST H925 YIELDS HI TEMPS RISING INTO THE 30S IN
THESE AREAS THAT HAVE MORE SUN...BUT MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE LOWER WHERE
THERE ARE MORE CLDS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
THE LONG ADVERTISED CHANGE TO A MILD WEATHER PATTERN IS WELL
UNDERWAY AS POSTIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF CANADA...CAUSING ARCTIC AIR TO RETREAT WELL
TO THE N. WHILE WARMTH DURING THE LONG TERM WILL PEAK OVER THE
WEEKEND AS AN ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
(500MB HEIGHT/850MB TEMP ANOMALIES PEAK AT 2.5 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE LONG TERM MID DEC AVG)...AN OVERALL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMP REGIME IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU AND WELL BEYOND THIS 7
DAY FCST. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES OUT TO DAY 16...CHRISTMAS DAY...
SHOW A TENDENCY TOWARD A COOLER PATTERN IN THE FEW DAYS BEFORE
CHRISTMAS...BUT THERE ARE ONLY A FEW RUNS SHOWING A RETURN TO A
COLD/BLO NORMAL TEMP REGIME. THE CFSV2 RUNS ALSO STRONGLY SUGGEST
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE THRU AT LEAST CHRISTMAS. SO...AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A MILD PATTERN IS LOCKING IN FOR QUITE A
WHILE...AND AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS...MOST DAYS WILL FEATURE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THIS PATTERN ALSO DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
ANY STORM SYSTEMS THAT WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT PCPN IN THE UPPER
LAKES REGION. WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AFTER SEVERAL DRY
DAYS...PCPN THAT OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AND AT LEAST SOME OF THE PCPN WILL
FALL AS RA/DZ.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PATTERN WILL BE A SLOWLY EVOLVING ONE AS
CURRENT E COAST STORM SYSTEM BECOMES CUTOFF FROM RETREATING FLOW TO
THE N. WHILE THIS MID LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND NEW ENGLAND FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THE BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA WILL SLOWLY
BUILD/SHARPEN UP AND DRIFT E...REACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY SETTLING OVER THE
UPPER LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THRU THU BEFORE IT SETTLES
S AND E. ALL THIS SPELLS A DRY/QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR UPPER MI.
BIG FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND THUS ALSO TEMPS AS LIGHT
FLOW UNDER AND IN THE VCNTY OF THE SFC RIDGE LIMITS ADVECTION. IF
THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS DOESN`T BREAK UP MUCH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY/TONIGHT...THE LOW
CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE AREA INTO FRI THOUGH THERE WILL BE
LOCAL CLEARING...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT SEE DOWNSLOPING. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW (1000 FOOT OR SO DEPTH)...MID DAY SUN ANGLE
IS ESSENTIALLY THE LOWEST OF THE YEAR...LIMITING POTENTIAL OF MIXING
THE MOISTURE OUT. SO...FCST HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDED TO A MORE
PESSIMISTIC SKY OUTLOOK FOR THU INTO FRI. W TO NW WINDS DO PICK UP
ON THU AND THAT SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN MORE SUNSHINE IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN CNTRL UPPER MI. CONVERSELY...NW FLOW AND
UPSLOPING INTO THE ERN FCST AREA WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS IN THAT AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO HANG ON OVER MOST OF WRN
UPPER MI. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THU NIGHT. FRI MAY OFFER A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPS ARE
OBVIOUSLY VERY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUDS. STAYED A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH DAYTIME WARMING AND NIGHTTIME COOLING...HIGHS
GENERALLY LWR 30S THU...MID 30S FRI WITH LOWS THU NIGHT MOSTLY UPPER
TEENS AND 20S.
OVER THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT VERY LIGHT PCPN AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NE INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AT LEAST
INITIALLY...HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THIS PCPN GIVEN THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE
INDICATED MOISTURE AND SHARP MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. IF THERE
IS ANY PCPN SAT NIGHT...IT WOULD BE PATCHY -DZ. WITH EXPECTED LOW
CLOUDS/MILD AIR MASS...TEMPS ARE NOT LIKELY TO FALL BLO FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WITH HEIGHTS FALLING SUN AND SOME INDICATION OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE AREA...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY -RA AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS SAT/SUN SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S/LWR 40S.
SUN NIGHT THRU TUE...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN SPLIT FLOW SHOULD
BRING SOME PCPN INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN THE SRN BRANCH...ONE WAVE
WILL TRACK FROM KS/OK TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE IN THE NRN BRANCH A
WAVE WILL SWING FROM MANITOBA ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES REGION. IN
RECENT DAYS...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE EXHIBITED SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW MUCH INTERACTION MAY OCCUR BTWN THE 2 WAVES WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE NRN STREAM TO DIG ENOUGH TO PICK UP SRN STREAM MOISTURE...
LEADING TO SOMETHING MORE THAN JUST LIGHT PCPN SUN NIGHT THRU MON.
THAT SEEMS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY GIVEN THE MAJORITY OF RUNS KEEPING
BRANCHES MORE SEPARATE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN
LATER MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT CHC POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN BEGINNING SUN NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO -SN FROM NW TO SE LATE
SUN NIGHT/MON AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT LES OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND SYSTEM INTO TUE IF AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA IS
COLD ENOUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014
ALTHOUGH SOME LO CLDS LINGER OVER UPR MI...LOWERING INVRN BASE IN
THE PRESENCE OF SOME DAYTIME HEATING...AND DOWNSLOPE SW WIND
COMPONENT AT IWD...HAVE FINALLY CAUSED THESE CLDS TO DIMINISH A BIT.
THERE COULD BE SOME LO CIGS AT TIMES THIS AFTN...BUT EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. BUT AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE W TNGT IN
THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING...MORE EXTENSIVE LO CLDS OVER MN/
WRN LK SUP WL RETURN. THE LOWEST LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME FZDZ/
FLURRIES WL IMPACT CMX LATE TNGT/THU MRNG...WHEN AND WHERE THE W
WIND WL PRESENT A SHARPER UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. WITH A DOWNSLOPE
WIND...SAW HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO AVOID THE LOWER CONDITIONS FOR A
LONGER TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014
LIGHT WINDS UNDER A SURFACE HI PRES RIDGE WILL BECOME NW AND
INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS ON THU AND THU NIGHT AS A HI CENTER
STRENGTHENS IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS HI SHIFTS
TO THE E THRU THE WEEKEND...THIS FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SW BUT REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH UNUSUALLY HI STABILITY OVER THE WATERS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MON...N WINDS WILL INCREASE
UP TO 25-30 KTS UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF HI PRES
MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1214 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
A SOLID OVERCAST STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO COVER ALL OF LOWER MI AND
MOST OF LAKE HURON. A MOIST NNE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON UNDER A DEEP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT IN SUSTAINING THESE CLOUDS.
CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 1K TO 2K FT RANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
INVERSION BASE LOWERED. DESPITE ONGOING LOWERING OF THE INVERSION
BASE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
IN SUSTAINING BASES ABOVE 1K FT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO AN EROSION OF THESE CLOUDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR DTW...TIMING OF THE CLEARING WORKING INTO METRO LATER TODAY
CARRIES A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS CLEARING MAY NOT ENTER METRO DETROIT
UNTIL THIS EVENING AROUND OR AFTER 22Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CLEARING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1032 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
UPDATE...
RAOBS FROM KDTX AND KAPX THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP
ENOUGH LAYER OF SATURATION UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION TO
MAINTAIN STRATUS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. MEAN NORTHERLY FLOW UNDER
THIS INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE OFF LAKE HURON
TODAY...BEFORE FLOW MAKES A SLOW AND SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW STRATUS TO ERODE VERY
SLOWLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND
12Z DATA FROM THE NAM AND RAP SUPPORT A SLOWER CLEARING TREND AND
FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO REFLECT LATER TIMING.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 359 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY EFFICIENT FLUX OF MOISTURE OFF LAKE
HURON OVERNIGHT...LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CEILINGS LOWERING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE INVERSION BASE LOWERS. HERE AT THE NWS
OFFICE...THIS IS LEADING TO PRECIP FALLING MORE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. BASED ON THE CURRENT OBSERVED INTENSITY AND WITH
AN EXPECTED DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
DRIER SFC AIR FUNNELS IN FROM THE NORTH...IMPACTS FROM ANY LINGERING
FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE MINOR AND NOT JUSTIFY
A HEADLINE.
THE LOWERING INVERSION BASE IS RESULTING FROM INCREASED LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE FROM MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING OVER LOWER MI.
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER SE MI.
THIS WAVE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...FURTHER INCREASING
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
SUSTAINING A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION /AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z KAPX
SOUNDING/. THIS AND MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON UNDER A NNE LOW
LEVEL FLOW HAS HELD A SOLID LOW STRATUS DECK OVER MOST OF LOWER MI.
SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE INVERSION BASE IS NOW ONGOING
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THIS EXTREMELY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION BASE WILL ADVANCE INTO SRN MI TODAY. THE FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO BACK TOWARD THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON
/LESSONING THE INFLUENCE OFF LAKE HURON/ AND BECOME SLIGHTLY
DIVERGENT. THESE FACTORS WILL OFFER AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A CLEARING OF
THE LOW CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A VERY SLOW DECLINE THIS MORNING AS
THE CLOUDS AND STRONG GRADIENT FLOW SUPPRESS THE NEAR SURFACE
COOLING. A SHALLOW THERMAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER SE MI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING JUST A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPS FROM MORNING
READINGS /ASSUMING AN EARLIER CLEARING DOES NOT OCCUR/. DESPITE THE
EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AMBIENT AIRMASS TONIGHT...THE NORTHWEST
GRADIENT WILL ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THE RETROGRESSION OF
THE NEW ENGLAND STORM SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WELL...THE CONSENSUS THAT HAD BEEN SOLIDIFIED WITH THE 09.12Z NWP
OFFERING IN REGARDS TO A MORE EASTERN PRECIPITATION SOLUTION
THURSDAY...WAS THROWN INTO DOUBT AGAIN...THIS TIME WITH THE 10.00Z
NAM SOLUTION. THE NAM SOLUTION IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIGHT SNOW
WILL IN FACT BACK ACROSS LAKE HURON BRUSHING SHORELINE AREAS OF THE
THUMB FROM APPROXIMATELY 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. THIS HAS
ALWAYS BEEN AND REMAINS A TOUCHY FORECAST AS THE AMOUNT OF DEEP DRY
AIR WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE FLANKING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SET A HARD EDGE AND A TIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADIENT. THE ECMWF WHICH
HAD BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...MOVED OFF OF THE
POSSIBILITY EARLIER. THERE SEEMS TO BE A NUMBER OF FACTORS THAT MAY
ALLOW FOR THE DEEP MOISTURE/LIGHT SNOW TO UNRAVEL AND MAKE IT BACK
TO THE EXTREME EASTERN THUMB COUNTIES. THE FIRST IS THE MAIN JET
BRANCH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BREAKS AWAY TODAY...CAUSING A
PSEUDO LONGWAVE CUTOFF. THE SECOND IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JETLET THAT
WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE JAMES BAY REGION AND CYCLONICALLY ROTATE
DOWN THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THE THIRD IS THE
COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH SODAK THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISISIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE DAMPENING OF HEIGHTS THAT WILL OCCUR
FROM THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE AFOREMENTION JETLET IN CANADA DIVING
SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MAIN MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO WOBBLE THROUGH
MICHIGAN AND STRENGTHEN. THEREFORE...DO NOT WANT TO MOVE COMPLETELY
AWAY FROM THE POSSIBILITY THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL BRUSH THE THUMB.
REINTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE POP FOR PORTIONS OF HURON/SANILAC/ST CLAIR
COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOW AN
OUTSTANDING UPPER LEVEL FRONTAL/LOW STABILITY STRUCTURE THAT
WOULD...CONDITIONALLY...BE SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL OMEGA
BLOCK/RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DRY AIR
AND A VERY STABLE PROFILE WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL CAUSE QUIET
WEATHER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY
MODERATE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE WILL WASH
ACROSS THE STATE.
MARINE...
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
HAS STRENGTHENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A
MARGINAL GALE EVENT OVER THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON. A GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED SOUTH OF HARBOR BEACH. THE GALE WARNING WILL
THEN CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN OCCLUDING OF THE SURFACE
LOW WILL ALLOW THE LOW CENTER TO ARCH BACK TO THE NW INTO PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK STATE AND VERMONT BY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ACTUALLY ALLOW WINDS TO SOLIDLY INCREASE ABOVE 35 KNOTS ON THURSDAY
FOR THE OPEN LAKE WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AS A PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ442-443-463-464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....HLO
UPDATE.......HLO
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1032 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.UPDATE...
RAOBS FROM KDTX AND KAPX THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP
ENOUGH LAYER OF SATURATION UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION TO
MAINTAIN STRATUS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. MEAN NORTHERLY FLOW UNDER
THIS INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE OFF LAKE HURON
TODAY...BEFORE FLOW MAKES A SLOW AND SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW STRATUS TO ERODE VERY
SLOWLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND
12Z DATA FROM THE NAM AND RAP SUPPORT A SLOWER CLEARING TREND AND
FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO REFLECT LATER TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 600 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
//DISCUSSION...
A SOLID OVERCAST STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO COVER ALL OF LOWER MI AND
MOST OF LAKE HURON. A MOIST NNE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON UNDER A DEEP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT IN SUSTAINING THESE CLOUDS.
CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 1K TO 2K FT RANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
INVERSION BASE LOWERED. DESPITE ONGOING LOWERING OF THE INVERSION
BASE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
IN SUSTAINING BASES ABOVE 1K FT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO AN EROSION OF THESE CLOUDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR DTW...TIMING OF THE CLEARING WORKING INTO METRO LATER TODAY
CARRIES A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS CLEARING MAY NOT ENTER METRO DETROIT
UNTIL THIS EVENING AROUND OR AFTER 22Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CLEARING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 359 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY EFFICIENT FLUX OF MOISTURE OFF LAKE
HURON OVERNIGHT...LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CEILINGS LOWERING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE INVERSION BASE LOWERS. HERE AT THE NWS
OFFICE...THIS IS LEADING TO PRECIP FALLING MORE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. BASED ON THE CURRENT OBSERVED INTENSITY AND WITH
AN EXPECTED DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
DRIER SFC AIR FUNNELS IN FROM THE NORTH...IMPACTS FROM ANY LINGERING
FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE MINOR AND NOT JUSTIFY
A HEADLINE.
THE LOWERING INVERSION BASE IS RESULTING FROM INCREASED LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE FROM MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING OVER LOWER MI.
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER SE MI.
THIS WAVE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...FURTHER INCREASING
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
SUSTAINING A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION /AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z KAPX
SOUNDING/. THIS AND MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON UNDER A NNE LOW
LEVEL FLOW HAS HELD A SOLID LOW STRATUS DECK OVER MOST OF LOWER MI.
SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE INVERSION BASE IS NOW ONGOING
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THIS EXTREMELY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION BASE WILL ADVANCE INTO SRN MI TODAY. THE FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO BACK TOWARD THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON
/LESSONING THE INFLUENCE OFF LAKE HURON/ AND BECOME SLIGHTLY
DIVERGENT. THESE FACTORS WILL OFFER AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A CLEARING OF
THE LOW CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A VERY SLOW DECLINE THIS MORNING AS
THE CLOUDS AND STRONG GRADIENT FLOW SUPPRESS THE NEAR SURFACE
COOLING. A SHALLOW THERMAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER SE MI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING JUST A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPS FROM MORNING
READINGS /ASSUMING AN EARLIER CLEARING DOES NOT OCCUR/. DESPITE THE
EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AMBIENT AIRMASS TONIGHT...THE NORTHWEST
GRADIENT WILL ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THE RETROGRESSION OF
THE NEW ENGLAND STORM SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WELL...THE CONSENSUS THAT HAD BEEN SOLIDIFIED WITH THE 09.12Z NWP
OFFERING IN REGARDS TO A MORE EASTERN PRECIPITATION SOLUTION
THURSDAY...WAS THROWN INTO DOUBT AGAIN...THIS TIME WITH THE 10.00Z
NAM SOLUTION. THE NAM SOLUTION IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIGHT SNOW
WILL IN FACT BACK ACROSS LAKE HURON BRUSHING SHORELINE AREAS OF THE
THUMB FROM APPROXIMATELY 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. THIS HAS
ALWAYS BEEN AND REMAINS A TOUCHY FORECAST AS THE AMOUNT OF DEEP DRY
AIR WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE FLANKING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SET A HARD EDGE AND A TIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADIENT. THE ECMWF WHICH
HAD BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...MOVED OFF OF THE
POSSIBILITY EARLIER. THERE SEEMS TO BE A NUMBER OF FACTORS THAT MAY
ALLOW FOR THE DEEP MOISTURE/LIGHT SNOW TO UNRAVEL AND MAKE IT BACK
TO THE EXTREME EASTERN THUMB COUNTIES. THE FIRST IS THE MAIN JET
BRANCH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BREAKS AWAY TODAY...CAUSING A
PSEUDO LONGWAVE CUTOFF. THE SECOND IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JETLET THAT
WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE JAMES BAY REGION AND CYCLONICALLY ROTATE
DOWN THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THE THIRD IS THE
COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH SODAK THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISISIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE DAMPENING OF HEIGHTS THAT WILL OCCUR
FROM THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE AFOREMENTION JETLET IN CANADA DIVING
SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MAIN MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO WOBBLE THROUGH
MICHIGAN AND STRENGTHEN. THEREFORE...DO NOT WANT TO MOVE COMPLETELY
AWAY FROM THE POSSIBILITY THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL BRUSH THE THUMB.
REINTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE POP FOR PORTIONS OF HURON/SANILAC/ST CLAIR
COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOW AN
OUTSTANDING UPPER LEVEL FRONTAL/LOW STABILITY STRUCTURE THAT
WOULD...CONDITIONALLY...BE SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL OMEGA
BLOCK/RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DRY AIR
AND A VERY STABLE PROFILE WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL CAUSE QUIET
WEATHER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY
MODERATE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE WILL WASH
ACROSS THE STATE.
MARINE...
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
HAS STRENGTHENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A
MARGINAL GALE EVENT OVER THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON. A GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED SOUTH OF HARBOR BEACH. THE GALE WARNING WILL
THEN CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN OCCLUDING OF THE SURFACE
LOW WILL ALLOW THE LOW CENTER TO ARCH BACK TO THE NW INTO PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK STATE AND VERMONT BY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ACTUALLY ALLOW WINDS TO SOLIDLY INCREASE ABOVE 35 KNOTS ON THURSDAY
FOR THE OPEN LAKE WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AS A PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ442-443-463-464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......HLO
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1247 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
STRETCING S FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE SE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPR RDG
IN THE PLAINS. SFC HI PRES UNDER THE THE UPR RDG STRETCHES FM NW
ONTARIO INTO MN. 12HR 00Z-12Z H5 HGT RISES IN THE 100-150M RANGE FM
YPL TO INL AND MPX INDICATE THE UPR RDG/SFC HI ARE BUILDING INTO THE
WRN GREAT LKS...BUT PLENTY OF LO CLDS/A FEW FLURRIES LINGER OVER THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTN WITH LLVL MSTR TRAPPED IN NEAR SFC NNE FLOW OFF
LK SUP UNDER INVRN BASE THAT HAD LOWERED TO NEAR H95 BY 12Z AT INL
UNDER THE STRONG DNVA/SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING UPR
RDG. THE AIR TO THE N OF LK SUP IS QUITE A BIT DRIER PER THE 12Z YPL
RAOB...WITH SFC DEWPTS NEAR OR BLO 0F AT MOST PLACES IN ONTARIO.
SKIES ARE MOCLR THERE...AND ASSOCIATED DRYING IS TENDING TO BREAK UP
THE LO CLDS OVER THE NRN AND ERN PORTION OF LK SUP. BUT THIS CLRG IS
HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH PROGRESS TOWARD UPR MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON LO CLD TRENDS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPS.
TNGT...AS UPR RDG CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE E...SFC HI PRES
RDG IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY E AS WELL...REACHING A LINE FM NEAR
JAMES BAY INTO NW WI BY 12Z WED. LOWERING INVRN BASE UNDER THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD END ANY LINGERING FLURRIES...BUT MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TO BE MORE PESSIMISTIC IN REGARDS TO CLEARING THE LO
CLDS...WHICH SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH RATHER SLOW OBSVD CLRG TREND.
BEST CHC FOR SOME CLRG WL BE OVER THE ERN CWA AS THE SLOWLY VEERING
LLVL FLOW TOWARD THE E WL DOWNSLOPE OFF ONTARIO AND LIMIT THE OVER
WATER TRAJECTORY. ONE OTHER AREA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME CLRG IS
OVER THE FAR W...WHERE FLOW SHIFTING TOWARD THE SSE WL DOWNSLOPE AS
WELL. BUT THE SFC-H925 WINDS ARE FCST TO BE ONLY 5-10 KTS...SO THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MIGHT NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP THE LO
CLDS SIGNIFICANTLY. WL TEND TOWARD THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR E...WITH LINGERING CLDS HOLDING UP THE TEMPS ELSEWHERE.
WED...SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS IS PROGGED TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY E THRU
THE DAY...REMAINING OVER CENTRAL UPR MI THRU THE DAY. WITH CONTINUED
SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT LINGERING LO CLDS TO SLOWLY BREAK UP. THESE CLDS
SHOULD BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
CWA...BUT EVEN HERE THE CLDS SHOULD BREAK UP AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVRN
SINKS TO THE NEAR THE SFC AS SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS. TENDED TOWARD THE
LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN HI STABILITY SHOWN ON FCST
SDNGS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AND DRY AIR WILL
LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SAME TIME...STRONG UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS BECOMING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY CLEAR...DRY AND
VERY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 40 DEGREES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 10 TO 12C.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT
HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY FALL ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL
MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO OVERLY ABUNDANT OR DEEP...AS A LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...HELPING TO FOCUS
THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW INLAND
AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD
NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON ROADWAYS WITH THE WARMER DAYTIME
HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...WENT WITH THE VERY LIGHT RAIN
MENTION...WITH DROPLETS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SMALL AS MOISTURE IS
NOT DEEP ENOUGH FOR RAINFALL TO AMOUNT TO MUCH. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SOUTHERN LOW THROUGH THE REMAINING
EXTENDED WITH THE 06Z GFS BRINGING THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST REACHING
SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MI BY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE LOW
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...AROUND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AT THE SAME TIME. THE
LATEST...12Z MODEL RUN OF THE GFS/EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. BOTH MODELS ALSO AGREE WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL ONCE AGAIN.
THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
COOLER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND
-8 TO -10C MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOP...THIS WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE NNE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
UNDER A LOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HAS RESULTED IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH
SOME NEAR SFC DRYING WILL KEEP THE CIGS GENERALLY IN THE MVFR
RANGE...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME CLEAING AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT SAW AND IWD WED MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO A MORE ESE DIRECTION THAT WILL DOWNSLOPE INTO IWD AND
LIMIT MOISTENING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SAW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
ANY CLEARING IS LIMITED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND
RELATIVELY WEAK DRY ADVECTION EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF TO UNDER 15KT. THESE
LIGHTER WINDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS POINT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1145 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES...WHICH WILL
HELP REINFORCE THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS MEANS THE LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BE GOING
ABSOLUTELY NO WHERE DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR WITH
SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO FAR WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHT
VEERING OF THE WINDS TODAY SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF THE DRIER AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY WEST OF I-29 TO PUSH EAST INTO MN.
HOWEVER...WITH STRATUS RAPIDLY EXPANDING ACROSS KS...SE NEB AND SRN
IA...THIS CLEARING MAY VERY WELL NOT MATERIALIZE. GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...FURTHER REDUCED HIGHS TODAY AND
INCREASED LOWS FOR TONIGHT AS ANY SORT OF DIURNAL TREND WITH TEMPS
WILL BE PRETTY MINIMAL. FOR VISIBILITIES TONIGHT...EXPECT A REPEAT
OF WHAT WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW...WITH HAZY CONDITIONS AND
VISIBILITIES MAINLY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES AND THE SPORADIC 1/4 OR
1/2SM IN FG . NOT EXPECTING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO
INCREASE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN WE START SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN SFC DEWPOINTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEIGHT RISES DUE TO LONG WAVE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE LATE THIS WEEK. THE 10.00Z/06Z GFS AND 10.00Z ECMWF HAVE
500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 576M BY 00Z SATURDAY...EXCEPTIONALLY
HIGH FOR MID DECEMBER. THIS MEANS WARMER TEMPS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY-SATURDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...ALL THE ADDED MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A LOT OF
CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER
WARMING AND LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...IT WILL HOWEVER...KEEP
NIGHTTIME LOWS QUITE MILD. THESE MILD DECEMBER TEMPS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE FOG/DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE WHAT SNOW COVER REMAINS IN MN/WI. DRIZZLE LOOKS
TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN ADVANCING
SURFACE TROUGH. DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH AND SLOWLY
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM 12Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY. IN
ADDITION TO DEEPER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LIFT TO HELP
GENERATE LIGHT RAIN AND SMALL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ON SUNDAY AS
OPPOSED TO THE MUCH SMALLER DRIZZLE DROPS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
THE EVOLUTION OF TWO DISTINCT WAVES /ONE NORTH AND ONE SOUTH/ EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DICTATE HOW LONG WE HOLD ONTO PRECIP MON-TUE. PRIOR
TO LAST NIGHT`S RUN...THE ECMWF HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY SOUTH WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THEREFORE TOOK A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS IA/MO. WE WERE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO SEE
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH TIME AND SLOWLY
MIGRATE TOWARD THE ECMWF. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 10.00Z ECMWF TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH AND NOW HAS HEALTHY QPF FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WI. AGAIN...THIS IS THE SOUTHERN
WAVE...WHICH IS THE SAME SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING WILD WEATHER TO
THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING
A LARGE AMOUNT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THIS
ADVANCING TROUGH...SO WHATEVER MODEL BEST HANDLES THE RAINFALL AND
LATENT HEAT RELEASE OUT WEST WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE MOST ACCURATE
DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER/FOG/DRIZZLE ARE A GOOD BET
FRI-SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
REPRIEVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY.
HOWEVER...THE INVERSION AROUND 2000FT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN...AND
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BRINGING IN MOISTURE...SO NOT TOO
OPTIMISTIC ON WIDESPREAD IMPROVEMENT.
KMSP...
IFR/LIFR THROUGHOUT. IN LINE WITH THE GENERAL DISCUSSION...NOT
ANTICIPATING CEILINGS IMPROVING ABOVE 1000FT UNTIL PERHAPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS TAKE ON A SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...IFR CIGS. WINDS S 5KTS.
SAT...IFR/LIFR WITH -DZ/FG. WINDS SSW 5-10KTS.
SUN...IFR/LIFR WITH -DZ/FG EARLY...THEN IFR LATE. WINDS SW AT
5-10KTS BECOMING NW AT 10G20KTS LATE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
530 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES...WHICH WILL
HELP REINFORCE THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS MEANS THE LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BE GOING
ABSOLUTELY NO WHERE DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR WITH
SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO FAR WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHT
VEERING OF THE WINDS TODAY SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF THE DRIER AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY WEST OF I-29 TO PUSH EAST INTO MN.
HOWEVER...WITH STRATUS RAPIDLY EXPANDING ACROSS KS...SE NEB AND SRN
IA...THIS CLEARING MAY VERY WELL NOT MATERIALIZE. GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...FURTHER REDUCED HIGHS TODAY AND
INCREASED LOWS FOR TONIGHT AS ANY SORT OF DIURNAL TREND WITH TEMPS
WILL BE PRETTY MINIMAL. FOR VISIBILITIES TONIGHT...EXPECT A REPEAT
OF WHAT WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW...WITH HAZY CONDITIONS AND
VISIBILITIES MAINLY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES AND THE SPORADIC 1/4 OR
1/2SM IN FG . NOT EXPECTING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO
INCREASE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN WE START SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN SFC DEWPOINTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEIGHT RISES DUE TO LONG WAVE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE LATE THIS WEEK. THE 10.00Z/06Z GFS AND 10.00Z ECMWF HAVE
500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 576M BY 00Z SATURDAY...EXCEPTIONALLY
HIGH FOR MID DECEMBER. THIS MEANS WARMER TEMPS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY-SATURDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...ALL THE ADDED MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A LOT OF
CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER
WARMING AND LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...IT WILL HOWEVER...KEEP
NIGHTTIME LOWS QUITE MILD. THESE MILD DECEMBER TEMPS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE FOG/DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE WHAT SNOW COVER REMAINS IN MN/WI. DRIZZLE LOOKS
TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN ADVANCING
SURFACE TROUGH. DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH AND SLOWLY
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM 12Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY. IN
ADDITION TO DEEPER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LIFT TO HELP
GENERATE LIGHT RAIN AND SMALL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ON SUNDAY AS
OPPOSED TO THE MUCH SMALLER DRIZZLE DROPS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
THE EVOLUTION OF TWO DISTINCT WAVES /ONE NORTH AND ONE SOUTH/ EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DICTATE HOW LONG WE HOLD ONTO PRECIP MON-TUE. PRIOR
TO LAST NIGHT`S RUN...THE ECMWF HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY SOUTH WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THEREFORE TOOK A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS IA/MO. WE WERE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO SEE
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH TIME AND SLOWLY
MIGRATE TOWARD THE ECMWF. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 10.00Z ECMWF TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH AND NOW HAS HEALTHY QPF FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WI. AGAIN...THIS IS THE SOUTHERN
WAVE...WHICH IS THE SAME SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING WILD WEATHER TO
THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING
A LARGE AMOUNT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THIS
ADVANCING TROUGH...SO WHATEVER MODEL BEST HANDLES THE RAINFALL AND
LATENT HEAT RELEASE OUT WEST WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE MOST ACCURATE
DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER/FOG/DRIZZLE ARE A GOOD BET
FRI-SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
UNTIL WE BEGIN TO SEE OTHERWISE...IT/S STATUS QUO WITH THE
STRATUS. JUST INTRODUCED A DIURNAL TREND WITH CIGS...WITH
IMPROVEMENTS TO IFR/LOW END MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A REPEAT
PERFORMANCE IN DECREASING CIGS/VIS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE TWO
LOCATIONS THAT MAY HAVE A SHOT AT CLEARING OUT FOR A BIT ARE
AXN/RWF WHERE BETTER MECHANICAL MIXING WITH STRONGER WINDS MAY BE
ABLE TO CLEAR THE SKIES OUT FOR A BIT AS THE HRRR SHOWS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE CLOUDS SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP STRATUS IN PLACE OUT WEST AS WELL
UNTIL SATELLITE TRENDS BEGIN TO TELL US OTHERWISE. IF WRN MN DOES
SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
FORMATION OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE IT...CLOUDS
OR FOG...YOU WILL NEED INSTRUMENTS IF YOU PLAN ON FLYING IN/OUT OF
MN OR WI THIS PERIOD.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE
NEXT 30 PLUS HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LESS IN HOW MUCH WE
WILL SEE CIG HEIGHTS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN IF WE DO
SEE MVFR CIGS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THEY WILL REMAIN UNDER 017.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...IFR CIGS. WINDS S 6-8 KTS.
FRI...IFR CIGS. WINDS S 5 KTS.
SAT...IFR...LIFR POSSIBLE WITH -DZ AND FG. WINDS SSW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
450 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES...WHICH WILL
HELP REINFORCE THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS MEANS THE LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BE GOING
ABSOLUTELY NO WHERE DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR WITH
SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO FAR WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHT
VEERING OF THE WINDS TODAY SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF THE DRIER AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY WEST OF I-29 TO PUSH EAST INTO MN.
HOWEVER...WITH STRATUS RAPIDLY EXPANDING ACROSS KS...SE NEB AND SRN
IA...THIS CLEARING MAY VERY WELL NOT MATERIALIZE. GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...FURTHER REDUCED HIGHS TODAY AND
INCREASED LOWS FOR TONIGHT AS ANY SORT OF DIURNAL TREND WITH TEMPS
WILL BE PRETTY MINIMAL. FOR VISIBILITIES TONIGHT...EXPECT A REPEAT
OF WHAT WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW...WITH HAZY CONDITIONS AND
VISIBILITIES MAINLY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES AND THE SPORADIC 1/4 OR
1/2SM IN FG . NOT EXPECTING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO
INCREASE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN WE START SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN SFC DEWPOINTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEIGHT RISES DUE TO LONG WAVE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE LATE THIS WEEK. THE 10.00Z/06Z GFS AND 10.00Z ECMWF HAVE
500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 576M BY 00Z SATURDAY...EXCEPTIONALLY
HIGH FOR MID DECEMBER. THIS MEANS WARMER TEMPS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY-SATURDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...ALL THE ADDED MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A LOT OF
CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER
WARMING AND LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...IT WILL HOWEVER...KEEP
NIGHTTIME LOWS QUITE MILD. THESE MILD DECEMBER TEMPS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE FOG/DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE WHAT SNOW COVER REMAINS IN MN/WI. DRIZZLE LOOKS
TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN ADVANCING
SURFACE TROUGH. DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH AND SLOWLY
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM 12Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY. IN
ADDITION TO DEEPER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LIFT TO HELP
GENERATE LIGHT RAIN AND SMALL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ON SUNDAY AS
OPPOSED TO THE MUCH SMALLER DRIZZLE DROPS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
THE EVOLUTION OF TWO DISTINCT WAVES /ONE NORTH AND ONE SOUTH/ EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DICTATE HOW LONG WE HOLD ONTO PRECIP MON-TUE. PRIOR
TO LAST NIGHT`S RUN...THE ECMWF HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY SOUTH WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THEREFORE TOOK A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS IA/MO. WE WERE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO SEE
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH TIME AND SLOWLY
MIGRATE TOWARD THE ECMWF. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 10.00Z ECMWF TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH AND NOW HAS HEALTHY QPF FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WI. AGAIN...THIS IS THE SOUTHERN
WAVE...WHICH IS THE SAME SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING WILD WEATHER TO
THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING
A LARGE AMOUNT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THIS
ADVANCING TROUGH...SO WHATEVER MODEL BEST HANDLES THE RAINFALL AND
LATENT HEAT RELEASE OUT WEST WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE MOST ACCURATE
DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER/FOG/DRIZZLE ARE A GOOD BET
FRI-SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE AREA UNDER A
STRONG INVERSION...LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND.
LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
BR WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR CIGS
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH IT APPEARING LESS AND LESS LIKELY
THAT WE WILL CLEAR OUT. SOUNDS FROM THE NAM AND RAP CONTINUE
INDICATE THE PERSISTENCE OF LLVL MOISTURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SLIGHT/TEMPORARY LIFTING OF CIGS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON /MOSTLY WEST/...BUT WOULD MOST LIKELY DEGRADE BACK
DOWN EARLY IN THE EVENING.
KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS STAYING IFR OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH MFR VSBYS. SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT THE SITE SOCKED IN GIVEN MODELS
INSISTENCE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS S 6-8 KTS.
FRI...IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS S 8-10 KT.
SAT...IFR LIKELY...LIFR POSSIBLE WITH -DZ AND FG. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1039 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
A STRONG INVERSION TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER 925H TODAY AND
MOST OF THE REGION CONTINUED TO BE PLAGUED BY THE PRESENCE OF LOW
STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. A HOLE IN THE CLOUDS JUST SOUTH OF THE
TWIN CITIES WILL LIKELY EXPAND OVER THE METRO INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE FILLING IN OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING THE INVERSION IN PLACE TO
HELP LOW STRATUS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AT THIS
POINT...WHICH WAS THE ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN ADDITION...WARMED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AND COOLED HIGHS FOR TOMORROW THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
STRATUS. FOG NOT A MAJOR CONCERN AS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO
SIMPLY PROMOTE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS RATHER THAN FOG. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE 925H THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WESTERN MN WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE
CLEARING SKIES...BUT WHETHER OR NOT THAT HAPPENS AT ALL TOMORROW
REMAINS IN DOUBT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT DRIZZLE THIS
WEEKEND. FOR THAT REASON BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER...AND HAVE LIKELY
WORDING FOR DRIZZLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
H850 TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL ACT TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. MEANWHILE THE
SYNOPTIC SURFACE WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE INCREASING FROM BOTH ADVECTION...AND
EVAPORATION OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK. THIS LACK OF MIXING WILL
SUPPORT INCREASED CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...SO HAVE DECREASED
MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...AND INCREASED MIN TEMPERATURES TO LIMIT
THE DIURNAL SWING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SATURATION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL GENERATED QPF OFF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
09.12 IS A FEW HUNDREDTHS...WHICH FITS THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF LOW
STRATUS/FOG AND PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY
A SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST...TOGETHER WITH A MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS LOW...SO DID
NOT STRAY FROM THE BLENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WITH EITHER
TEMPERATURES OR POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE AREA UNDER A
STRONG INVERSION...LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND.
LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
BR WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR CIGS
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH IT APPEARING LESS AND LESS LIKELY
THAT WE WILL CLEAR OUT. SOUNDS FROM THE NAM AND RAP CONTINUE
INDICATE THE PERSISTENCE OF LLVL MOISTURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SLIGHT/TEMPORARY LIFTING OF CIGS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON /MOSTLY WEST/...BUT WOULD MOST LIKELY DEGRADE BACK
DOWN EARLY IN THE EVENING.
KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS STAYING IFR OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH MFR VSBYS. SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT THE SITE SOCKED IN GIVEN MODELS
INSISTENCE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS S 6-8 KTS.
FRI...IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS S 8-10 KT.
SAT...IFR LIKELY...LIFR POSSIBLE WITH -DZ AND FG. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1145 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1049 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2014
Do not expect much more than about a 2-5 degree rise in temperatures
the rest of today. Latest aircraft sounding data from KSTL is
showing a strong inversion between 900-800mb which usually
supports keeping the low clouds in all day during the cool season.
That along with the weak cold air advection with the east to
northeast winds should keep the temperatures in the 30s over most
of the area. Kept the mention of sprinkles over parts of central
and southeast Missouri this afternoon. Water vapor is currently
showing the upper low moving southeastward into northwest
Missouri. Latest RAP run does show some ascent over the southwest
part of the CWA this afternoon that does support the mention of
these sprinkles.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 204 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2014
Another cloudy day is expected as low level flow remains northeast
with solid layer of stratus stretching into the Great Lakes.
Temperatures will remain seasonal with highs in the upper 30s.
Can`t rule out a few sprinkles across central Missouri this
afternoon as a small upper level shortwave moves south from Iowa.
CVKING
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2014
Clouds and more clouds as we head toward the weekend. The model
guidance has been consistent in showing very high relative
humidity levels in the 900 to 925mb layer through Saturday. I know
we could all use a little sunshine, but we may have to wait until
Sunday afternoon to see any breaks in the stratus. Regardless the
temperatures should slowly moderate above normal as we head into
the weekend as heights rise across the central CONUS.
Next major storm system should lift from the southwest CONUS
across the Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley early next
week. Precipitation should be all rain, with temperatures dropping
back to near normal levels by next Tuesday.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2014
Expect MVFR ceilings through the TAF period. A weak upper level
disturbance will move southeastward across central Missouri this
afternoon which may bring a few light sprinkles to KCOU this
afternoon between 21-24Z. However chance is too low to include in
the TAF and conditions are likely to remain VFR if it does occur.
A surface ridge will move across the area causing winds to turn
light and variable.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect MVFR ceilings to continue the next 30
hours. Winds are expected to turn light and variable by tonight as
a surface high moves into area.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1049 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1049 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2014
Do not expect much more than about a 2-5 degree rise in temperatures
the rest of today. Latest aircraft sounding data from KSTL is
showing a strong inversion between 900-800mb which usually
supports keeping the low clouds in all day during the cool season.
That along with the weak cold air advection with the east to
northeast winds should keep the temperatures in the 30s over most
of the area. Kept the mention of sprinkles over parts of central
and southeast Missouri this afternoon. Water vapor is currently
showing the upper low moving southeastward into northwest
Missouri. Latest RAP run does show some ascent over the southwest
part of the CWA this afternoon that does support the mention of
these sprinkles.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 204 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2014
Another cloudy day is expected as low level flow remains northeast
with solid layer of stratus stretching into the Great Lakes.
Temperatures will remain seasonal with highs in the upper 30s.
Can`t rule out a few sprinkles across central Missouri this
afternoon as a small upper level shortwave moves south from Iowa.
CVKING
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2014
Clouds and more clouds as we head toward the weekend. The model
guidance has been consistent in showing very high relative
humidity levels in the 900 to 925mb layer through Saturday. I know
we could all use a little sunshine, but we may have to wait until
Sunday afternoon to see any breaks in the stratus. Regardless the
temperatures should slowly moderate above normal as we head into
the weekend as heights rise across the central CONUS.
Next major storm system should lift from the southwest CONUS
across the Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley early next
week. Precipitation should be all rain, with temperatures dropping
back to near normal levels by next Tuesday.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 426 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2014
Strong low pressure over the eastern US will keep a cyclonic flow
over the Midwest resulting in a lot of clouds and prevailing MVFR.
Plus an upper level system will move through Wednesday and it may
kick off a sprinkle or two, but not enough to put into any
terminals for now. Models try to lift clouds to above MVFR this
afternoon but not optimistic this will happen given the NE surface
flow and cyclonic pattern. Plus models try to breakout clouds late
tonight into Thursday. If it happens that looks like the best
time.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR conditions will likely prevail through
the forecast period. Models try to breakout clouds late tonight
into Thursday, but given the pattern, and NE surface wind, not
optimistic this will happen. Will go with persistence for now.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
246 PM CST WED DEC 10 2014
.SHORT TERM... (THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 10 2014
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE PROBABILITY OF
DENSE FOG AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING UNTIL MID
MORNING ON THURSDAY. THERE IS THEN CONCERN AS TOO HOW QUICKLY THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT OR IF WE WILL EVEN SEE ANY
SUNSHINE...WHICH HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON OUR THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
TONIGHT...THE HRRR AND SREF BOTH INDICATE A MODEST CHANCE OF DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT WEST OF INTERSTATE 80 BEGINNING THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME...BUT WOULD CERTAINLY NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT LEAST SOME LOCAL
AREAS SEE DENSE FOG TONIGHT GIVEN THE HIGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. THE CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD START TO LOWER AND THE FOG
DEVELOP ONCE WE SEE DIURNAL COOLING OF THE NEAR SFC LAYER THIS
EVENING. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
SOME...AND WILL BE GOING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT STILL BELOW
FREEZING. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME OF THAT FROZEN FOG AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN MORE WHITE TREES AND PERHAPS A FEW
SLICK SPOTS ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
THURSDAY...THE FOG WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT/BURN OFF...BUT THERE IS LESS
CERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FOG WILL LIFT AND IF THE CLOUDS WILL
EVEN BE ABLE TO BURN OFF ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN FACT...AM GOING
TO GO MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH FORECAST HIGHS ON THURSDAY GIVEN
INCREASING BELIEF THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS. EVEN IF THE LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP SOME BY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TIME FOR MUCH
WARMING TO OCCUR. THE NAM MODEL HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT WITH HIGH
RH VALUES INDICATIVE OF A LOW CLOUD DECK FROM AROUND 900 MB TO THE
SFC. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
DRIZZLE...BUT WILL IMPACT HIGHS. THEREFORE...WILL NOW BE CALLING FOR
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S EAST OF HWY 281 TO THE MID AND UPPER
40S WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...WHICH IS A GOOD DEAL COOLER THAN WE HAD IN
THE FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO.
.MID TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 10 2014
THIS 48-HOUR PERIOD IS EFFECTIVELY THE "RELATIVE CALM" BEFORE THE
POTENTIALLY MORE IMPACTFUL SUNDAY-MONDAY STORM SYSTEM DESCRIBED IN
THE LONG-TERM SECTION BELOW. EVEN SO...THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A
LARGELY DREARY...AND AT TIMES FOGGY/DRIZZLY PERIOD...AND THE ODDS OF
SEEING MUCH SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE LOOKING PRETTY SLIM.
DESPITE THE OVERALL-GLOOMY WEATHER PATTERN...AT LEAST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE SEASONABLY MILD SIDE...WITH HIGHS FRI/SAT CURRENTLY
AIMED INTO THE 50S...AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT HOLDING UP INTO THE 40S
MOST AREAS...POTENTIALLY SETTING RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS FOR DEC. 13TH
AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORD SITES GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS. DESPITE
THE MILDER READINGS...THIS FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND FROM
PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF SHAVING ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES OFF HIGHS
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AND AS EVIDENCED BY WHAT HAPPENED JUST TODAY...ITS
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT FURTHER DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF
AREAS REMAIN SOCKED IN UNDER LOW STRATUS.
IN TERMS OF WEATHER HAZARDS...FORTUNATELY ANY DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN
THAT FALLS DURING THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE OF THE NON-FREEZING
VARIETY. THAT LEAVES NIGHT-TIME/MORNING FOG AS THE PARAMOUNT
CONCERN...AND WHETHER OR NOT IT BECOMES DENSE (VISIBILITY 1/4 MILE
OR LESS). ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN NAM/SREF VISIBILITY
PROGS THAT DENSE FOG IS A POSSIBILITY BOTH NIGHTS IN AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE CWA...ITS JUST TOO SOON TO PINPOINT WITH ANY CONFIDENCE...SO
WILL CALL FOR GENERIC "PATCHY" OR "AREAS" OF FOG AT THIS TIME AND
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID) THAT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS TO LESS THAN 1 MILE ARE POSSIBLE (IF NOT PROBABLE).
GETTING INTO MORE DETAIL NOW IN 12-HOUR BLOCKS...
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...THE BIG MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE FEATURES A
SEEMINGLY "QUIET" PATTERN WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE SCALE RIDGE. HOWEVER...THERE IS MORE GOING ON DOWN CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE. MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST HERE...AS
HAVE MAINTAINED EITHER A PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG MENTION THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT...AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT-
BUT-STEADY 5-10 MPH BREEZES COULD WORK AGAINST WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES...BUT THAT IS YET TO BE SEEN. AS FOR DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...IT
IS LOOKING A BIT LESS FAVORABLE THAN IT DID 24 HOURS AGO DUE TO THE
DEPTH OF SATURATION TOPPING OUT CLOSER TO ONE-HALF KILOMETER (KM)
THAN 1 KM IN THE LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT WAS UNWILLING
TO YANK IT FROM THE FORECAST YET AND WILL LET NEXT FEW SHIFTS TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK. DID HOWEVER "DOWNGRADE" THE PROBABILITY OF DRIZZLE
FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE...AND KEPT IT IN KS ZONES ONLY PRE-
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE EXPANDING IT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NEB
ZONES POST-MIDNIGHT. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...FOG SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT THAN DRIZZLE. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW TEMPS...KEEPING
MOST OF THE CWA UP INTO THE MID- UPPER 30S...EXCEPT FOR COLDER
READINGS CLOSER TO 30 IN FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRIDAY DAYTIME...THE HEART OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
TRANSITIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BUT DOWN LOW THE STORY REMAINS
MUCH THE SAME. LEANING TOWARD THE 12Z NAM DEPICTION MORE THAN
ANYTHING...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA...AND EVEN THOUGH SKY COVER WAS
INCREASED IT COULD PROBABLY TREND HIGHER. OF COURSE...BRIEF POCKETS
OF SUNSHINE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. SOUTHERLY BREEZES
GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. AS FOR FOG/DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL...CONTINUED BOTH OF THESE ELEMENTS INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING
HOURS OUT OF THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT BASED ON THE LACK OF "SPLOTCHY
QPF" INDICATED BY THE 12Z NAM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP FRIDAY AFTERNOON DRIZZLE/FOG FREE AT LEAST FOR NOW. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MADE MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPS...BUT
STILL AIMING FROM LOW 50S NORTHEAST TO MAINLY MID 50S SOUTHWEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT...BY THIS TIME THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS IS STARTING
TO DEPART EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THE LARGE/AMPLIFIED WESTERN TROUGH
STILL REMAINS WELL-WEST...WITH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ONLY REACHING
THE SOUTHERN CA/AZ BORDER AREA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. NEAR/AT THE
SURFACE...THE SAME MOIST/WIDESPREAD CLOUDY AIRMASS CONTINUES...AND
BY THIS TIME MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD BE INCREASING ENOUGH TO MAKE
DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY AND HAVE GONE WITH "CHANCE" WORDING HERE INSTEAD
OF JUST SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE NIGHT BEFORE. ALSO BLANKETED THE ENTIRE
CWA WITH AREAS OF FOG POTENTIAL. ASSUMING THAT TEMPS DURING THE
PRECEDING DAY WARM AS MUCH AS PROGGED...THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE
DROP-OFF FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE QUITE-MILD LOWS AIMED INTO THE LOW-
MID 40S MOST AREAS.
SATURDAY DAYTIME...IN SOME WAYS THIS RESEMBLES A SOMEWHAT
MILD/"HUMID" EARLY SPRING DAY...AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY
AIMED TO RISE WELL INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S AND POTENTIALLY EVEN LOW
50S IN SOME PLACES. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN VORT MAX WITHIN THE EXPANSIVE
WESTERN CONUS LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH...CURRENT
NAM/GFS/ECMWF RUNS ONLY BRING IT TO NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA BY DAYS
END...WITH LITTLE IF ANY LARGE-SCALE FORCING INFLUENCING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS YET. THIS MEANS THAT ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRIVEN BY SHALLOW PROCESSES WITHIN THE LAYER STRATUS DECK. COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS 24-36 HOURS...SATURDAY DAYTIME APPEARS TO HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY EVEN MEASURABLE
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THUS OPTED TO
CONTINUE AN OFFICIAL 20 PERCENT MEASURABLE POP IN THIS PERIOD. AS
WITH FRIDAY...SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS AND MAYBE NOT QUITE
ENOUGH...BUT NOW HAVE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 10 2014
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...00Z SUNDAY...HAS NOT SEEN ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MODELS...WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS FROM ERN TX NORTH INTO
ONTARIO...WHILE TROUGHING DIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEAR WATCHING IN THE
COMING DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF
CO...WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING N/NE INTO THE DAKOTAS...KEEPING
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS GOING ACROSS THE CWA. THE STREAM OF INCREASED
WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH INTO THE AREA...KEEPING PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AROUND...ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING WILL BE
MILD WITH 40S AND A FEW 50S CURRENTLY FORECAST.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY CERTAINLY THE MOST INTERESTING TIME TIME FRAME OF
THE PERIOD...AS WE SEE THE ARRIVAL OF THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS...ENDING UP BY 00Z MONDAY ROUGHLY OVER
THE OK/TX PANHANDLE AREA. HOW IT EVOLVES BEYOND THAT AND WHERE ITS
ULTIMATE TRACK ENDS UP WILL DRIVE WHAT OUR CWA SEES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY /PERHAPS LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT?/.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
HAD GENERALLY TAKEN THE SYSTEM ALONG A MORE SOUTHERLY PATH...LEAVING
OUR CWA MORE ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE MAIN ACTIVITY. LOOKING AT THE
12Z RUN OF MODELS TODAY...THE GFS/GEM HAVE A MORE NRN TRACK THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...TAKING THE 500 AND ESP 700MB LOWS ACROSS CENTRAL
KS...IF NOT RIGHT OVER OUR SRN CWA...AND USHERS IN COLDER
AIR/TRANSITION TO SNOW EVERYWHERE QUICKER. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS THE TRACK MORE OVER NRN OK...AND IS A TOUCH
SLOWER WITH THE COLDER AIR. THE START OF THIS EVENT IS STILL 4 DAYS
OUT...SO PLENTY EARLY TO BE BUYING FULL IN TO ANY PARTICULAR MODEL
OR MODEL RUN...AS 24 HRS FROM NOW THEY MAY LOOK DIFFERENT.
HOWEVER...EITHER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR
THE CWA...DIFFERENCE IS IN WHERE THE HEAVIER /SEVERAL INCHES
POTENTIALLY/ COULD END UP. COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BUILDING IN BEHIND A PASSING COLD...THOSE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS PERIOD REALLY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS...LOT OF DETAILS YET TO BE IRONED
OUT. AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURES GO...ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST...WITH LOWER/MID 30S GOING FOR MONDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS IS NOT HIGH....NOT EXPECTING A NOTABLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL AIR MASS...BUT SNOWFALL ON THE GROUND WOULD COMPLICATE
THINGS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS BOTH DAYS REMAIN IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
THIS IS A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH LOW CLOUDS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN FLUCTUATING FLIGHT CATEGORIES FROM LIFR...TO
IFR...TO MVFR ALL BEING LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL STILL SEE NO BETTER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY SOME PERIODS OF CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY TAKE A TURN FOR WORSE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MID THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS PROBABLE DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
MID TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1158 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS CLOUD DECK THAT HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY TO EVEN EXPANDING
AS WE WENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. NUMEROUS FORECAST MODELS
INCLUDING THE RAP...HRRR...AND NAM HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
CLOUD COVER AND KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR ALL
OF OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR OUR VERY FAR WESTERN ZONES LIKE
GOTHENBURG WHERE SUNSHINE MAY PERSIST.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING IN AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
A SMALL AREA OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE CITY OF HASTINGS. LATEST RUNS OF THE SHORT TERM
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP MODEL HAVE JUST NOW BEGUN TO SHOW
THIS LATEST DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI CITIES AND SPREAD NORTHWARD. THEREFORE
ADDED AREAS OF FOG LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN THE FORECAST TO COVER
THIS. THINK WHATEVER FOG DEVELOPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED FOR EACH
LOCATION AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS OVERNIGHT SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE
RIDGE INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN
TO SLIDE EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTH BREEZES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
PATCHY STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND ALSO SOUTH AND INTO PORTIONS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES.
REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS
KEEP ALL REDUCED VISIBILITY OUT OF OUR CWA. ON THE OTHER HAND...NAM
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN PESSIMISTIC WITH FOG THE PAST
FEW DAYS (ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NOT PANNED OUT EACH NIGHT). CURRENT
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE LAYERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO FORM. THUS...WHILE IT IS
POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH SOME MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE A DENSE FOG SCENARIO.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE
IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. AGAIN...MOISTURE FIELDS ARE
DEEPER SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES...WHEN LOOKING AT NAM AND GFS
CROSS SECTIONS. THEREFORE...EXPECTING STRATUS OVER KANSAS TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. SO...HOPEFULLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 40S...WITH UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S UNDER A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NOW...ALL
THAT BEING SAID...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 6Z NAM SEEMS TO BE
COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH...AS IT PROPOSES HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR
TOMORROW! EVEN UNDER COMPLETELY CLOUDY SKIES...SEE ABSOLUTELY NO
REASON WHY WE SHOULD REMAIN AT OUR CURRENT 9Z TEMPERATURES ALL
DAY...WITH EVEN LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW MORNING...INHERITED CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND AREAS OF FOG ELSEWHERE.
AGREE THAT LATEST MODEL RUNS DO SHOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LIGHTS WINDS AND VERY DRY MID LEVELS...ALL POINTING TO A
FREEZING DRIZZLE/ DRIZZLE SITUATION. HOWEVER...AGAIN AS WITH THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SEEM TO BE VERY VERY
SHALLOW...NEARLY PAPER THIN ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS ALSO
RETREATING SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND BECOMING EVEN MORE
SHALLOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. SO WHILE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY...CONFIDENCE IN A LARGE WIDESPREAD AREA OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE AND FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH AT ALL.
THEREFORE...REDUCED WORDING TO PATCHY FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
MORNING AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE SOME DRIZZLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. EARLY IN THE MORNING THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH. BY AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP. THE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING TOO FAR AND THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AND WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE
AROUND WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THE TEMPERATURES RISE AS MUCH.
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR
DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY THERE IS AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
IN THE FORECAST BUT WORRY THAT IT COULD BE MORE OF ANOTHER DAY WITH
SOME DRIZZLE. THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM ADVECTION AND EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAINS A CHALLENGE. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN PAST NIGHTS BUT STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND HOW FAST IT MOVES THROUGH
THE PLAINS. THEREFORE STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST. NOT
AS CONCERNED AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION BECAUSE BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE COLDER
AIR IS A LITTLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
THAT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE WENT WITH RAIN OR SNOW FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND NOT CERTAIN
HOW MUCH SNOW THERE WILL BE BUT THE NORTHWEST COULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE COLD AIR TO SEE HOW MUCH
SNOW THERE WILL BE.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD
AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
THIS IS A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH LOW CLOUDS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN FLUCTUATING FLIGHT CATEGORIES FROM LIFR...TO
IFR...TO MVFR ALL BEING LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL STILL SEE NO BETTER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY SOME PERIODS OF CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY TAKE A TURN FOR WORSE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MID THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS PROBABLE DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
602 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
A SMALL AREA OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE CITY OF HASTINGS. LATEST RUNS OF THE SHORT TERM
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP MODEL HAVE JUST NOW BEGUN TO SHOW
THIS LATEST DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI CITIES AND SPREAD NORTHWARD. THEREFORE
ADDED AREAS OF FOG LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN THE FORECAST TO COVER
THIS. THINK WHATEVER FOG DEVELOPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED FOR EACH
LOCATION AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS OVERNIGHT SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE
RIDGE INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN
TO SLIDE EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTH BREEZES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
PATCHY STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND ALSO SOUTH AND INTO PORTIONS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES.
REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS
KEEP ALL REDUCED VISIBILITY OUT OF OUR CWA. ON THE OTHER HAND...NAM
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN PESSIMISTIC WITH FOG THE PAST
FEW DAYS (ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NOT PANNED OUT EACH NIGHT). CURRENT
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE LAYERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO FORM. THUS...WHILE IT IS
POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH SOME MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE A DENSE FOG SCENARIO.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE
IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. AGAIN...MOISTURE FIELDS ARE
DEEPER SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES...WHEN LOOKING AT NAM AND GFS
CROSS SECTIONS. THEREFORE...EXPECTING STRATUS OVER KANSAS TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. SO...HOPEFULLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 40S...WITH UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S UNDER A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NOW...ALL
THAT BEING SAID...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 6Z NAM SEEMS TO BE
COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH...AS IT PROPOSES HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR
TOMORROW! EVEN UNDER COMPLETELY CLOUDY SKIES...SEE ABSOLUTELY NO
REASON WHY WE SHOULD REMAIN AT OUR CURRENT 9Z TEMPERATURES ALL
DAY...WITH EVEN LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW MORNING...INHERITED CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND AREAS OF FOG ELSEWHERE.
AGREE THAT LATEST MODEL RUNS DO SHOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LIGHTS WINDS AND VERY DRY MID LEVELS...ALL POINTING TO A
FREEZING DRIZZLE/ DRIZZLE SITUATION. HOWEVER...AGAIN AS WITH THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SEEM TO BE VERY VERY
SHALLOW...NEARLY PAPER THIN ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS ALSO
RETREATING SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND BECOMING EVEN MORE
SHALLOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. SO WHILE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY...CONFIDENCE IN A LARGE WIDESPREAD AREA OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE AND FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH AT ALL.
THEREFORE...REDUCED WORDING TO PATCHY FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
MORNING AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE SOME DRIZZLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. EARLY IN THE MORNING THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH. BY AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP. THE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING TOO FAR AND THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AND WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE
AROUND WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THE TEMPERATURES RISE AS MUCH.
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR
DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY THERE IS AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
IN THE FORECAST BUT WORRY THAT IT COULD BE MORE OF ANOTHER DAY WITH
SOME DRIZZLE. THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM ADVECTION AND EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAINS A CHALLENGE. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN PAST NIGHTS BUT STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND HOW FAST IT MOVES THROUGH
THE PLAINS. THEREFORE STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST. NOT
AS CONCERNED AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION BECAUSE BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE COLDER
AIR IS A LITTLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
THAT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE WENT WITH RAIN OR SNOW FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND NOT CERTAIN
HOW MUCH SNOW THERE WILL BE BUT THE NORTHWEST COULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE COLD AIR TO SEE HOW MUCH
SNOW THERE WILL BE.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD
AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY OPTIMISTIC OVERNIGHT AT
KEEPING LOW CEILINGS AT REDUCED VISIBILITIES OUT OF THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING IT SEEMS THEY HAVE DONE A COMPLETE ONE EIGHTY. AN
AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING FROM
KANSAS AND HAS MOVED AS FAR NORTH AS THE FIRST ROW OF COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...THIS STRATUS BEARS A CEILING NO LOWER THAN
1800 FT AND NO REDUCED VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN 5 SM. UNFORTUNATELY
JUST AHEAD OF THIS BAND...A VERY SMALL AREA OF LOW CEILINGS AND
REDUCED HAS DEVELOPED LITERALLY RIGHT OVER THE CITY OF HASTINGS.
THIS STRATUS IS ON SUCH A SMALL SCALE THAT IT IS HARD TO SEE ON
INFRARED SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODELS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING TO
PICK UP ON IT. EXPECT THIS AREA TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY MOST LIKELY
COVERING BOTH TAF SITES AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...NOT
EXPECTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO HANG ON LONG...SO COVERED THIS
WITH A TEMPO GROUP. AS FOR CEILINGS...AGAIN EXPECT STRATUS TO HANG
AROUND BUT VERY LOW CEILINGS OF 200 FT TO BE A SHORT LIVED THING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SALTZMAN
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SALTZMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
537 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS OVERNIGHT SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE
RIDGE INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN
TO SLIDE EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTH BREEZES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
PATCHY STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND ALSO SOUTH AND INTO PORTIONS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES.
REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS
KEEP ALL REDUCED VISIBILITY OUT OF OUR CWA. ON THE OTHER HAND...NAM
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN PESSIMISTIC WITH FOG THE PAST
FEW DAYS (ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NOT PANNED OUT EACH NIGHT). CURRENT
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE LAYERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO FORM. THUS...WHILE IT IS
POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH SOME MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE A DENSE FOG SCENARIO.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE
IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. AGAIN...MOISTURE FIELDS ARE
DEEPER SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES...WHEN LOOKING AT NAM AND GFS
CROSS SECTIONS. THEREFORE...EXPECTING STRATUS OVER KANSAS TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. SO...HOPEFULLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 40S...WITH UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S UNDER A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NOW...ALL
THAT BEING SAID...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 6Z NAM SEEMS TO BE
COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH...AS IT PROPOSES HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR
TOMORROW! EVEN UNDER COMPLETELY CLOUDY SKIES...SEE ABSOLUTELY NO
REASON WHY WE SHOULD REMAIN AT OUR CURRENT 9Z TEMPERATURES ALL
DAY...WITH EVEN LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW MORNING...INHERITED CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND AREAS OF FOG ELSEWHERE.
AGREE THAT LATEST MODEL RUNS DO SHOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LIGHTS WINDS AND VERY DRY MID LEVELS...ALL POINTING TO A
FREEZING DRIZZLE/ DRIZZLE SITUATION. HOWEVER...AGAIN AS WITH THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SEEM TO BE VERY VERY
SHALLOW...NEARLY PAPER THIN ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS ALSO
RETREATING SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND BECOMING EVEN MORE
SHALLOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. SO WHILE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY...CONFIDENCE IN A LARGE WIDESPREAD AREA OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE AND FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH AT ALL.
THEREFORE...REDUCED WORDING TO PATCHY FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
MORNING AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE SOME DRIZZLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. EARLY IN THE MORNING THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH. BY AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP. THE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING TOO FAR AND THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AND WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE
AROUND WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THE TEMPERATURES RISE AS MUCH.
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR
DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY THERE IS AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
IN THE FORECAST BUT WORRY THAT IT COULD BE MORE OF ANOTHER DAY WITH
SOME DRIZZLE. THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM ADVECTION AND EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAINS A CHALLENGE. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN PAST NIGHTS BUT STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND HOW FAST IT MOVES THROUGH
THE PLAINS. THEREFORE STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST. NOT
AS CONCERNED AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION BECAUSE BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE COLDER
AIR IS A LITTLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
THAT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE WENT WITH RAIN OR SNOW FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND NOT CERTAIN
HOW MUCH SNOW THERE WILL BE BUT THE NORTHWEST COULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE COLD AIR TO SEE HOW MUCH
SNOW THERE WILL BE.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD
AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY OPTIMISTIC OVERNIGHT AT
KEEPING LOW CEILINGS AT REDUCED VISIBILITIES OUT OF THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING IT SEEMS THEY HAVE DONE A COMPLETE ONE EIGHTY. AN
AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING FROM
KANSAS AND HAS MOVED AS FAR NORTH AS THE FIRST ROW OF COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...THIS STRATUS BEARS A CEILING NO LOWER THAN
1800 FT AND NO REDUCED VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN 5 SM. UNFORTUNATELY
JUST AHEAD OF THIS BAND...A VERY SMALL AREA OF LOW CEILINGS AND
REDUCED HAS DEVELOPED LITERALLY RIGHT OVER THE CITY OF HASTINGS.
THIS STRATUS IS ON SUCH A SMALL SCALE THAT IT IS HARD TO SEE ON
INFRARED SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODELS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING TO
PICK UP ON IT. EXPECT THIS AREA TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY MOST LIKELY
COVERING BOTH TAF SITES AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...NOT
EXPECTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO HANG ON LONG...SO COVERED THIS
WITH A TEMPO GROUP. AS FOR CEILINGS...AGAIN EXPECT STRATUS TO HANG
AROUND BUT VERY LOW CEILINGS OF 200 FT TO BE A SHORT LIVED THING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SALTZMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
337 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS OVERNIGHT SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE
RIDGE INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN
TO SLIDE EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTH BREEZES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
PATCHY STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND ALSO SOUTH AND INTO PORTIONS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES.
REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS
KEEP ALL REDUCED VISIBILITY OUT OF OUR CWA. ON THE OTHER HAND...NAM
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN PESSIMISTIC WITH FOG THE PAST
FEW DAYS (ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NOT PANNED OUT EACH NIGHT). CURRENT
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE LAYERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO FORM. THUS...WHILE IT IS
POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH SOME MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE A DENSE FOG SCENARIO.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE
IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. AGAIN...MOISTURE FIELDS ARE
DEEPER SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES...WHEN LOOKING AT NAM AND GFS
CROSS SECTIONS. THEREFORE...EXPECTING STRATUS OVER KANSAS TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. SO...HOPEFULLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 40S...WITH UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S UNDER A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NOW...ALL
THAT BEING SAID...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 6Z NAM SEEMS TO BE
COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH...AS IT PROPOSES HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR
TOMORROW! EVEN UNDER COMPLETELY CLOUDY SKIES...SEE ABSOLUTELY NO
REASON WHY WE SHOULD REMAIN AT OUR CURRENT 9Z TEMPERATURES ALL
DAY...WITH EVEN LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW MORNING...INHERITED CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND AREAS OF FOG ELSEWHERE.
AGREE THAT LATEST MODEL RUNS DO SHOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LIGHTS WINDS AND VERY DRY MID LEVELS...ALL POINTING TO A
FREEZING DRIZZLE/ DRIZZLE SITUATION. HOWEVER...AGAIN AS WITH THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SEEM TO BE VERY VERY
SHALLOW...NEARLY PAPER THIN ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS ALSO
RETREATING SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND BECOMING EVEN MORE
SHALLOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. SO WHILE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY...CONFIDENCE IN A LARGE WIDESPREAD AREA OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE AND FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH AT ALL.
THEREFORE...REDUCED WORDING TO PATCHY FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
MORNING AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE SOME DRIZZLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. EARLY IN THE MORNING THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH. BY AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP. THE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING TOO FAR AND THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AND WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE
AROUND WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THE TEMPERATURES RISE AS MUCH.
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR
DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY THERE IS AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
IN THE FORECAST BUT WORRY THAT IT COULD BE MORE OF ANOTHER DAY WITH
SOME DRIZZLE. THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM ADVECTION AND EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAINS A CHALLENGE. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN PAST NIGHTS BUT STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND HOW FAST IT MOVES THROUGH
THE PLAINS. THEREFORE STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST. NOT
AS CONCERNED AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION BECAUSE BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE COLDER
AIR IS A LITTLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
THAT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE WENT WITH RAIN OR SNOW FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND NOT CERTAIN
HOW MUCH SNOW THERE WILL BE BUT THE NORTHWEST COULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE COLD AIR TO SEE HOW MUCH
SNOW THERE WILL BE.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD
AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
UPDATED TAFS TO REFLECT SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND POSSIBLE
FOG POTENTIAL. STRATUS REMAINS IN KANSAS AND IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS
WAY NORTH. ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT STRATUS WILL
REACH THE TAF SITES...DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE ALL MENTION AT
THIS TIME. SHOULD IT CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD...EXPECT
LOWERED CEILINGS AROUND 1030Z TO 11Z. SO FAR THERE HAVE NOT BEEN
REDUCED VISIBILITIES UNDER 5SM IN THIS STRATUS BAND.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SALTZMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
215 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY SLOWLY MOVING NOR EASTER WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
REGION. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0645 PM UPDATE...
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS STILL
STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT WEST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AT THIS HOUR SO
WITH THIS UPDATE WE REDUCED POPS, QPF, AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA FOR THIS EVENING AS BANDING WILL BE
WEAKENING BY THE TIME PRECIP MOVES IN.
IN TERMS OF P-TYPE, THE LOWER LEVELS ARE FINALLY
COOLING WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. AS WARMER AIR IS WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR AREAS FARTHER NORTH, PRECIP IS STILL FALLING AS RAIN AROUND
ROME AND SYRACUSE. WE EXPECT THE OVERALL TREND TO BE A CHANGE TO
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE STORM TOTAL GRIDS WERE RERUN BASED ON THESE
LATEST UPDATES AND FOR MOST AREAS THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES. DUE
TO THE SLOWER CHANGE OVER AND SLOWER WESTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP,
AMOUNTS WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR LUZERNE AND STEUBEN COUNTIES.
1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES HAS DROPPED DOWN TO NR 1000MB AS IT SPINS OFF THE JERSEY
SHORE. MODERATE TO HVY PCPN IS ONGOING ACRS ERN HALF OF CWA AS
EXPECTED BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES ARE STILL RIGHT AT OR BLO FRZG AS OF 17Z WITH -FZRA
FALLING AT THESE LOCATIONS AND HEARING ABOUT NUMEROUS MOTOR VEHICLE
ACCIDENTS.
PCPN HAS ESSENTIALLY HIT A BRICK WALL AT THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO MV MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS
NOW UNTIL AFT 00Z. DEFORMATION BAND THAT THE MODELS WERE INSISTENT
WUD ROTATE WEST THRU THE EVNG HRS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE A FRACTURED
BAND OF MIXED PCPN.
H9 TEMPS PER LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATING BLYR TEMPS RMNG ISOTHERMAL
THRU 21Z THIS AFTN AND VRY SLOWLY DROPPING BYND THIS TIME. EXPECT A
MIXED BAG THRU BULK OF THE OVRNGT FOR SXNS EAST OF I-81 WITH CLD AIR
BEING PULLED IN FM THE WEST. ANOTHER WV FCST TO MV THRU NRN ZONES
AFT 06Z TONIGHT AND WITH MOISTURE FM LK ADDED IN EXPECT SVRL INCHES
OF SNOW TO FALL ACRS THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
THRU THE OVRNGT IS NOW LOOKING TO BE MEAGER WITH A GNRL INCH OR TWO
ACRS THE BULK OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY 2-4 INCHES IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SUSQUEHANNA REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CYCLONE BECOMES STACKED THIS PERIOD AND SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD. PERSISTENT
NW FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING NOREASTER WILL KEEP SYNOPTIC SNOW
SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFEECT ACTIVITY OVER OUR COUNTIES THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE AN
ISSUE, SO WILL STICK TO ONLY 2-3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN PERSISTENT
ACTIVITY OVER THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXTEND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN NY ON FRIDAY. NNW WILL PERSIST,
SO THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN FA. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN FA WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN FAIR
WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WOBBLING AROUND OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA
IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR PERIODS OF SNOW WRAPPING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS NY AND
FAR NORTHERN PA WITH HIGH CHANCE DONE AROUND I-80 FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND -6 TO -8 WITH
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE NNW FLOW. THIS PATTERN IS
USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS
OUR AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS NY STATE WITH MANY AREAS PROBABLY STILL
GETTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW.
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT
SCATTERED SNOW SHWOERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW HAS KEPT
CONDITIONS AT MVFR OR VFR AT SEVERAL TERMINALS. HOWEVER COLDER AIR
IS WORKING INTO THE REGION, AND THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS WILL
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
THE NEXT 8 TO 16 HOURS.
THE MOST PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT BGM AND ITH, WHERE
CEILINGS WILL HOLD AT 200 TO 600 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH VISIBILITIES FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 3/4SM AND 2SM.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT/THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHSN. BETTER CHC IN NY.
SAT/SUN...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-023-025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ022-024-
062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF/PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP/MSE
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1200 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY SLOWLY MOVING NOR EASTER WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
REGION. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
0645 PM UPDATE...
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS STILL
STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT WEST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AT THIS HOUR SO
WITH THIS UPDATE WE REDUCED POPS, QPF, AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA FOR THIS EVENING AS BANDING WILL BE
WEAKENING BY THE TIME PRECIP MOVES IN.
IN TERMS OF P-TYPE, THE LOWER LEVELS ARE FINALLY
COOLING WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. AS WARMER AIR IS WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR AREAS FARTHER NORTH, PRECIP IS STILL FALLING AS RAIN AROUND
ROME AND SYRACUSE. WE EXPECT THE OVERALL TREND TO BE A CHANGE TO
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE STORM TOTAL GRIDS WERE RERUN BASED ON THESE
LATEST UPDATES AND FOR MOST AREAS THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES. DUE
TO THE SLOWER CHANGE OVER AND SLOWER WESTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP,
AMOUNTS WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR LUZERNE AND STEUBEN COUNTIES.
1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES HAS DROPPED DOWN TO NR 1000MB AS IT SPINS OFF THE JERSEY
SHORE. MODERATE TO HVY PCPN IS ONGOING ACRS ERN HALF OF CWA AS
EXPECTED BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES ARE STILL RIGHT AT OR BLO FRZG AS OF 17Z WITH -FZRA
FALLING AT THESE LOCATIONS AND HEARING ABOUT NUMEROUS MOTOR VEHICLE
ACCIDENTS.
PCPN HAS ESSENTIALLY HIT A BRICK WALL AT THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO MV MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS
NOW UNTIL AFT 00Z. DEFORMATION BAND THAT THE MODELS WERE INSISTENT
WUD ROTATE WEST THRU THE EVNG HRS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE A FRACTURED
BAND OF MIXED PCPN.
H9 TEMPS PER LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATING BLYR TEMPS RMNG ISOTHERMAL
THRU 21Z THIS AFTN AND VRY SLOWLY DROPPING BYND THIS TIME. EXPECT A
MIXED BAG THRU BULK OF THE OVRNGT FOR SXNS EAST OF I-81 WITH CLD AIR
BEING PULLED IN FM THE WEST. ANOTHER WV FCST TO MV THRU NRN ZONES
AFT 06Z TONIGHT AND WITH MOISTURE FM LK ADDED IN EXPECT SVRL INCHES
OF SNOW TO FALL ACRS THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
THRU THE OVRNGT IS NOW LOOKING TO BE MEAGER WITH A GNRL INCH OR TWO
ACRS THE BULK OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY 2-4 INCHES IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SUSQUEHANNA REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
315 PM UPDATE...
MOISTURE WL CONTINUE TO WRAP-ARND THE NOR`EASTER THRU THE SHORT
TERM. DEFORMATION BAND FINALLY GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER CURRENTLY
AND WL ROTATE INTO THE FINGER LKS BY MORNING. ADDED MOISTURE OFF
OF THE LKS WL LKLY BRING 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW ACRS FINGER LKS AND
SUSQUEHANNA REGION DRG THE DAY WED THO AMNTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER, THUS HV OPTED TO KEEP WARNINGS GOING FOR CNTRL NY.
SYSTEM WL BCM VERTICALLY STACKED DRG THE DAY TOMORROW AND WITH NW
FLOW MVG DOWN ACRS THE LKS EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.
ONLY QUESTION WL BE IS IF DRY SLOT WL MV IN FM THE EAST AND
DENDRITE ZONE WL LOSE MOISTURE DRG THE AFTN HRS BUT WL ALLOW
LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON DROPPING HEADLINES EARLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WOBBLING AROUND OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA
IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR PERIODS OF SNOW WRAPPING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS NY AND
FAR NORTHERN PA WITH HIGH CHANCE DONE AROUND I-80 FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND -6 TO -8 WITH
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE NNW FLOW. THIS PATTERN IS
USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS
OUR AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS NY STATE WITH MANY AREAS PROBABLY STILL
GETTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW.
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT
SCATTERED SNOW SHWOERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW HAS KEPT
CONDITIONS AT MVFR OR VFR AT SEVERAL TERMINALS. HOWEVER COLDER AIR
IS WORKING INTO THE REGION, AND THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS WILL
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
THE NEXT 8 TO 16 HOURS.
THE MOST PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT BGM AND ITH, WHERE
CEILINGS WILL HOLD AT 200 TO 600 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH VISIBILITIES FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 3/4SM AND 2SM.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT/THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHSN. BETTER CHC IN NY.
SAT/SUN...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-023-025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ022-024-
062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF/PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...DJP/MSE
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
957 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
OF FOG AND STRATUS EVOLUTION. THROUGH 03 UTC...THE FOG AND STRATUS
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WAS ERODING. HOWEVER...THIS TREND
WAS REVERSING OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH SOME FOG AND STRATUS ALSO
FORMING IN THE BISMARCK AND MANDAN AREA WITH A SMALL CLEARING IN
THE CIRRUS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS.
THE 02 UTC HRRR DOES SHOW THE DECREASE IN FOG THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...ONLY TO BUILD BACK IN LATER TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
DID INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S GIVEN
CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ON
TRACK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION THROUGH THE
EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 442 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
GIVEN CURRENT VISIBILITIES OF AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE FROM CARRINGTON THROUGH JAMESTOWN...ASHLEY AND
ELLENDALE...AND THE 21 UTC HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST WHICH KEEPS
DENSE FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY AS FOG DROPLETS
FREEZE ON ROADWAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS.
LARGE DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE VERY MILD SOUTHWEST AND THE
COOL EAST.
CURRENTLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WESTERN MONTANA WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S. A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE EAST OF TROUGH IS SLOWING OUR WARM-UP. BUT
EVEN WITH THE SLOW WARM-UP AND THE STRATUS IN THE FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WE ARE STILL AHEAD OF OUR 2 PM
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. THUS NOT A BAD DAY OVERALL.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FOG AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA
TONIGHT. SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...EVEN A LITTLE WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT MOST AREAS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER
EASTWARD BY FRIDAY...OUR SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO
SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING FOR BETTER DAYTIME MIXING...AND REALIZING
OUR FORECAST HIGHS. STILL OPTIMISTIC WITH UPPER 50S AND MAYBE SOME
60S SOUTHWEST...WITH HOPEFULLY SOME LOWER 40S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
ONE MORE MILD DAY SATURDAY BEFORE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. THIS
LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LARGELY IMPACTED BY THE NORTHERN
STREAM SEGMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING CAA INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND VERY LIMITED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
JUST SPOTTY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AFTERWARDS MONDAY-
THURSDAY WITH A VERY DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KBIS
THROUGH AT LEAST 05 UTC. HOWEVER...THIS IS A FAIRLY LOCALIZED AREA
OF FOG AND STRATUS AND ITS EVOLUTION IS UNCERTAIN. LIFR STRATUS
SHOULD CONTINUE AT KJMS INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BY 09 UTC...LIFR VISIBILITIES IN FREEZING FOG
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ025-037-047-048-
050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
648 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
DID INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S GIVEN
CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ON
TRACK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION THROUGH THE
EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 442 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
GIVEN CURRENT VISIBILITIES OF AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE FROM CARRINGTON THROUGH JAMESTOWN...ASHLEY AND
ELLENDALE...AND THE 21 UTC HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST WHICH KEEPS
DENSE FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY AS FOG DROPLETS
FREEZE ON ROADWAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS.
LARGE DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE VERY MILD SOUTHWEST AND THE
COOL EAST.
CURRENTLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WESTERN MONTANA WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S. A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE EAST OF TROUGH IS SLOWING OUR WARM-UP. BUT
EVEN WITH THE SLOW WARM-UP AND THE STRATUS IN THE FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WE ARE STILL AHEAD OF OUR 2 PM
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. THUS NOT A BAD DAY OVERALL.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FOG AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA
TONIGHT. SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...EVEN A LITTLE WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT MOST AREAS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER
EASTWARD BY FRIDAY...OUR SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO
SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING FOR BETTER DAYTIME MIXING...AND REALIZING
OUR FORECAST HIGHS. STILL OPTIMISTIC WITH UPPER 50S AND MAYBE SOME
60S SOUTHWEST...WITH HOPEFULLY SOME LOWER 40S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
ONE MORE MILD DAY SATURDAY BEFORE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. THIS
LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LARGELY IMPACTED BY THE NORTHERN
STREAM SEGMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING CAA INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND VERY LIMITED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
JUST SPOTTY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AFTERWARDS MONDAY-
THURSDAY WITH A VERY DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH AT
LEAST 12-14 UTC FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ025-037-047-048-
050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
638 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG AND
POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALL AREAS HAVE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WITH AREAS
OF FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS. THERE IS ALSO SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
THE FAR WEST AND NORTH. THE RAP MODEL INDICATED VSBYS WILL FALL
BELOW 1/4SM ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 6Z...AND IN THE
WEST BY 3Z. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TRENDS WITH PLENTY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A VERY STRONG...AND STILL
INCREASING INVERSION. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL
TONIGHT...AND WE WILL TAKE THE CURRENT TEMPS IN ALL AREAS AND
DECREASE BY A FEW DEGREES. IT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN BREEZY AT TIMES
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. FOR NOW WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG TO
ALL AREAS THROUGH 14Z...AND EXTEND PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM 14-18Z
TOMORROW WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NOT MOVING ANYTIME SOON. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE THE CONTINUATION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG AT TIMES THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE CLOUD TRENDS AND RESULTING
TEMPERATURES.
VERY WARM COLUMN ALOFT RESULTING IN STEEP PERSISTENT INVERSION
WHICH HAS TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH STEADILY LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL HOLD
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FG. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FG BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. WITH THE CLOUDS NOT
MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE EXPECTED.
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE BIG CHALLENGE AGAIN
TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT. GFS ALONG WITH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRYING
TO DRY OUT MOIST SHALLOW LOW LEVELS BLO INVERSION. HOWEVER WITH
STRENGTH OF INVERSION AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL GET RID OF THE STRATUS AND WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES. WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES SO IF WE DO LOSE
CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN SATURDAY AS SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HINGE ON
CLOUD COVER HOWEVER WITH INVERSION IN PLACE/CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW THINK CLOUDS WILL HOLD ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FRONT CROSSES THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH FOR UPPER SUPPORT
BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS MAINLY ACROSS NW MN.
MODEST COLD ADVECTION SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT CLOUDS
WILL HAVE FINAL SAY IN TEMPERATURES. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS ANY
PCPN LOOKS TO BE FLURRIES OR SOME SORT OF DRIZZLE.
MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER QUIET WEEK
EXPECTED AS SPLIT FLOW DOMINATES WITH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STORM
TRACK...VERY TYPICAL IN EL NINO WINTERS. PSEUDO REX BLOCK DEVELOPS
AT 500MB WITH WEAK TROUGH LOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTING MORE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH HI TEMPS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS...
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
EXPECT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
AT ALL AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BEYOND. VSBYS MAY FALL BELOW
1/2SM AT TIMES OVERNIGHT IN FOG...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR JUST
HOW LOW VSBYS BOTTOM OUT OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT AT TIMES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1011 PM EST THU DEC 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STRATUS DECK W OF KDAY IS BEING PROGGED BY HRRR TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
AND AIM TOWARDS CINCY AND TRI-STATE REGION. THE DECK IS FAIRLY
NARROW AND SHOWS SIGNS OF EROSION ON ITS EDGES BUT WILL PROBABLY
HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS IT MAKES A SOUTHEASTERLY TURN.
SHAVED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST A DEGREE OR SO BUT KEPT
WESTERN CWA SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST. IF THE SC DECK INCREASES IN
AREA FOR SOME REASON THEN MIN TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
UPWARD IN SW CWA. REST OF FCST EXPERIENCED COSMETIC CHANGES IN
GENERAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT QUASI STATIONARY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT SETTLES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. AGAIN...CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL REVOLVE
AROUND POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER AND HOW THAT WILL AFFECT HIGHS AND
LOWS. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS HANDLING THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NEAR TERM...IT THEN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
USE THE MODELS IN THEIR DEPICTION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BELIEVE THE MOISTURE IS OVERDONE BY
THE NAM AND UNDERDONE BY THE GFS...WHICH ARE TYPICAL BIASES. THIS
MAKES IT HARD TO TIME THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND
THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE THAT MAY RESULT. A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH HAS
BEEN IMPLEMENTED WHICH BASICALLY SLOWLY INCREASES LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY...MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE CLOUDS COOLER TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES...
STAYING AWAY FROM THE NAM COOLER VALUES DUE TO ITS DEPICTION OF
MORE CLOUDS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE PER THE MODELS IS SHALLOW AND
BELOW 850 MB. MODEL QPF BEGINS TO GENERATE LIGHT QPF AS WE HEAD
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE QPF
DEPICTION HAS A DRIZZLE LOOK TO IT. AM NOT BUYING INTO THE LIGHT
QPF...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IS MAINLY 1 KM IN
DEPTH OR LESS. THIS VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE DOES NOT SEEM CONDUCIVE
FOR DRIZZLE. TYPICALLY...A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 1.5 AND
2.0 KM IS NEEDED TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING OR SOME OTHER LIFTING MECHANISM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD ON SUNDAY. A WELL-DEFINED
TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH SETUP WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO. AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND MOVING ONLY VERY SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA...THE MOTION OF THE LARGE RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BE VERY SLOW. ABOVE 700MB...THE AIR MASS WITHIN THE
RIDGE WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO THE GROUND...THIS
MAY NOT BE THE CASE. ALTHOUGH ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND WELL
NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AT HIGHER LEVELS...THE 925MB HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST. MOISTURE AT THIS
LEVEL IS FORECAST TO FLOW NORTH IN A CLOCKWISE MANNER AROUND THIS
RIDGING...EVENTUALLY BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...MODELS HAVE
OCCASIONALLY PRODUCED SOME LIGHT PATCHES OF QPF OUTPUT DURING THIS
PERIOD...AND THAT INDICATION BECAME SLIGHTLY MORE PROMINENT WITH THE
12Z RUNS TODAY. DESPITE THIS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST. WITH LITTLE TO NO LOW-LEVEL FORCING...AND ONLY A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...GETTING
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP WILL BE DIFFICULT. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP CONDITIONS MORE CLOUDY THAN
SUNNY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM GOING INTO BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE LOW-LEVEL PATTERN IS A TYPICAL ONE FOR
WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AS THE NEW WEEK BEGINS...ATTENTION WILL FOCUS ON THE TROUGH
INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. AS A JET STREAK
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES ASHORE...EVENTUALLY A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW MOVING
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS. HOWEVER...THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS A SOURCE OF INCONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS...WHICH IS
NOT ESPECIALLY SURPRISING GIVEN THE VARIABLES GOING INTO ITS
DEVELOPMENT. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE FORECAST IS THAT 12Z RUNS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER TIMING AND PLACEMENT AGREEMENT...WITH THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...AND HOW QUICKLY IT
DEGENERATES INTO AN OPEN WAVE. A CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND IN THE
MODELS HAS ENDED UP WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEARING TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND FORCING. POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN SIMILAR CATEGORIES (20-40 PERCENT) BUT FOCUSED A LITTLE
GREATER ON THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...ADVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ONCE THE LOW PASSES...COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE WILL PROVIDE FOR A RETURN TO COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS COLD
ADVECTION...POSSIBLY GIVEN THE SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE NORTH...DOES NOT
APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS. THUS...AFTER A
FEW DAYS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ONLY APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...
SLOWLY CREEPING EASTWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WNW AROUND 5 TO 9 KNOTS. WRAP AROUND
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ROTATE
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS DO SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BUT FEEL THE
WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PREVENTING WIDESPREAD BR
DEVELOPMENT. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY BR THAT DEVELOPS LATE
TONIGHT BUT OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE APPROACHES.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...KURZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
744 PM EST THU DEC 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO QUEBEC
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA IN NW PA HAS SEEN A BREAK IN THE SNOW
THIS EVENING...WITH JUST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE MOISTURE ALOFT
REALLY STARTING TO DRY UP. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AT THIS
POINT SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN
THE GUSTY WINDS...WILL HANG ON THE WARNINGS FOR A LITTLE BIT
LONGER BUT EXPECTING TO BE ABLE TO CANCEL BEFORE 11 PM UNLESS THE
RADAR FLARES BACK UP. THE RUC IS SHOWING ENOUGH INCREASE IN
SHALLOW MOISTURE TO SEE FLURRIES OR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT BUT WONT BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO NEED TO
KEEP THE HEADLINES GOING. RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES IN NW PA
OVERNIGHT WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT COOLING. ELSEWHERE
FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. CONTINUING THE WINTER
STORM WARNING THROUGH 11 PM. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW EVEN AFTER THE WARNING EXPIRES. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW EVEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER...THE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE NORTHEAST PART
OF ASHTABULA COUNTY COULD EVEN SEE A LITTLE SNOW BUT NO
ACCUMULATION. THE WARNING MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED BY 7 PM AS THE
SNOW IS DECREASING SOMEWHAT QUICKLY.
ELSEWHERE THE SKY COVER IS TOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY OVER NW OH MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER EXTREME NE OH. THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOWS. WENT COOLER
IN THE WEST BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS DENSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER NW PA ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. A LITTLE CONCERN THAT SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THAT SO THE NEXT SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT AS THE CEILINGS WILL BE RISING.
ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME CIRRUS AROUND. THE
MOS NAM GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR FRIDAY SEEMS TO LOW WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE FORECAST PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS FOR DAYS HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING QPF FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME STILL KEEPING IT DRY WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND
NOT THAT MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS SPLIT FLOW
BRINGS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FROM CA/WEST COAST. THIS
WILL TAKE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL REMAIN THE STRONGER OF THE TWO AND
WILL BRING RIDGING OVER THE AREA FOR THU/FRI...AHEAD OF THE NEXT BIG
TROUGH COMING FROM THE WEST COAST. MOST OF THE COLD AIR STAYS
BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH...WITH THE ECMWF ALLOWING SOME OF THAT COLD
AIR TO DIP DOWN WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW HAS MOVED EAST OF KERI. STILL COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THERE BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A DRY PERIOD AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL THIN OVERNIGHT WITH ABOUT THE WEST HALF
OF THE AREA BECOMING SCT OR SKC. HIGH CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE
EAST INTO FRIDAY. W TO WNW WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH.
GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SPEEDS THE SECOND HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
.OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN SOME NON-VFR SUNDAY. NON-VFR
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A STIFF WNW FLOW REMAINS ON THE LAKE FROM THE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TONIGHT THAT LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY AND THE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AND WIND/WAVES WILL START TO COME DOWN.
THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AS IS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PASS SOUTH OF THE LAKE BETWEEN FRIDAY AND MONDAY WITH WEST OR WSW
FLOW ON THE LAKE. A WEAK LOW PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON
TUESDAY WHICH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDS ON THE
LAKE AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
143.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
836 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MID/UPPER DISTURBANCES IN A MOIST NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BREAKS UP THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM TENNESSEE VALLEY TO END WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
830 AM UPDATE...DID ELECT TO EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO BY A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OHIO
ZONES BORDERING THE PBZ CWA AS DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS THERE.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
COLDER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FILTER DOWN FROM THE NORTH. RAP MODEL
HAS ABOUT A MINUS 5 C AT 850 MB FOR 08Z...AND ABOUT MINUS 8C BY 21Z
TODAY.
THE FORECAST SOUNDING OFF THE NAM SHOWS THE TOP OF THE
MOIST LAYER AROUND 5 THSD FT MSL FOR THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THAT
TOP LOWERS BELOW 3 THSD FT MSL TONIGHT. AS IT GETS COLDER
ALOFT...THE BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPS MANAGES TO STAY NEAR THE TOP
OF THAT SHRINKING MOIST LAYER THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO WEAK CHANNELED
500 MB VORT MAXIMUMS DROPPING SE THROUGH OUR VCNTY TODAY...AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW NEAR NEW YORK CITY. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE OUR POPS MUCH HIGHER THAN MODEL MOS GUIDANCE IN THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE COUNTIES - EVEN THOUGH FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS. SPECIFIC HOURLY
POPS BECOME TOUGHER TO FIGURE AS YOU VENTURE WEST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER COUNTIES.
IN THE LOW CEILINGS...DID INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES AOB
32 DEGS.
NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN MAY NOT
GO ABOVE THEIR 12Z TEMPERATURE DURING THE DAY.
LIKED OUR PREVIOUS IDEA OF KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ABOVE MOST MOS GUIDANCE...SINCE WE ARE FORECASTING THE CEILINGS TO
HOLD. COLDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE BEST CHANCE OF PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE.
FOR THIS CURRENT NIGHT(TUESDAY NIGHT)...TODAY...AND TONIGHT...HAVE A
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR EACH OF THOSE PERIODS
ACROSS OUR HIGH COUNTRY...MOSTLY AOB 3500 FEET. SO NOTHING TO WRITE
HOME ABOUT FOR THESE DARK DAYS OF DECEMBER. OF COURSE...WITH THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES...UNTREATED ROADS COULD EASILY BECOME SLIPPERY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT...IN THE GRIPS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL
FINALLY BEGIN MOVING OUT SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE LOW TO OUR NE...WILL BE IN
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WOULD TYPICALLY PROVIDE
DECENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. HAVE POPS DECREASING THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES
AWAY FROM CWA. HAVE A POP MINIMUM THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE
INCREASING SOME IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATES
AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM. ANOTHER IMPULSE SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...SO INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. NAM TRIES TO BRING A SLUG OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRIER. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFERENCE
IS IN THE PLACEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH. NAM STILL HAS IT OVER THE LOWER
OHIO RIVER VALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FARTHER
EAST. WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDING A
COUPLE DEGREES TO HIGHS EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL...DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LONG
TERM...AS UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A SYSTEM
APPROACHES LATE IN THE LONG TERM...SPREADING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE AREA...AND BRINGING IN COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT PCPN HAS INCREASED AFTER 06Z...BUT A TEMPORARY LULL ON RADAR
WAS APPROACHING CRW FROM THE NW NEAR 11Z.
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND HAVE CEILINGS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 THSD IN THE
OHIO VALLEY OF SE OHIO AND NE KY...LOWERING EAST...WITH WIDESPREAD
CEILINGS AOB 1 THSD FT OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WITH HIGHER RIDGES
OBSCURED.
WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MOSTLY
BLO 3 MILES IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS. SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING KBKW VCNTY TIL
14Z...COULD LEAVE SOME LIGHT GLAZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND METAL
OBJECTS.
HAVE STRATUS BECOMING SCATTERED TO BROKEN AROUND 2 THSD FT IN SE OH
AND NE KY INTO THE PKB-HTS CORRIDOR 06Z TO 12Z.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MOSTLY 14Z TO 22Z TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY VARY IN WV CAUSING MORE FLUCTUATION IN VSBY THAN
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN CEILINGS AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE EVAPORATING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
545 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MID/UPPER DISTURBANCES IN A MOIST NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BREAKS UP THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM TENNESSEE VALLEY TO END WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLDER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FILTER DOWN FROM THE NORTH. RAP MODEL
HAS ABOUT A MINUS 5 C AT 850 MB FOR 08Z...AND ABOUT MINUS 8C BY 21Z
TODAY.
THE FORECAST SOUNDING OFF THE NAM SHOWS THE TOP OF THE
MOIST LAYER AROUND 5 THSD FT MSL FOR THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THAT
TOP LOWERS BELOW 3 THSD FT MSL TONIGHT. AS IT GETS COLDER
ALOFT...THE BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPS MANAGES TO STAY NEAR THE TOP
OF THAT SHRINKING MOIST LAYER THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO WEAK CHANNELED
500 MB VORT MAXIMUMS DROPPING SE THROUGH OUR VCNTY TODAY...AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW NEAR NEW YORK CITY. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE OUR POPS MUCH HIGHER THAN MODEL MOS GUIDANCE IN THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE COUNTIES - EVEN THOUGH FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS. SPECIFIC HOURLY
POPS BECOME TOUGHER TO FIGURE AS YOU VENTURE WEST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER COUNTIES.
IN THE LOW CEILINGS...DID INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES AOB
32 DEGS.
NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN MAY NOT
GO ABOVE THEIR 12Z TEMPERATURE DURING THE DAY.
LIKED OUR PREVIOUS IDEA OF KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ABOVE MOST MOS GUIDANCE...SINCE WE ARE FORECASTING THE CEILINGS TO
HOLD. COLDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE BEST CHANCE OF PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE.
FOR THIS CURRENT NIGHT(TUESDAY NIGHT)...TODAY...AND TONIGHT...HAVE A
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR EACH OF THOSE PERIODS
ACROSS OUR HIGH COUNTRY...MOSTLY AOB 3500 FEET. SO NOTHING TO WRITE
HOME ABOUT FOR THESE DARK DAYS OF DECEMBER. OF COURSE...WITH THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES...UNTREATED ROADS COULD EASILY BECOME SLIPPERY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT...IN THE GRIPS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL
FINALLY BEGIN MOVING OUT SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE LOW TO OUR NE...WILL BE IN
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WOULD TYPICALLY PROVIDE
DECENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. HAVE POPS DECREASING THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES
AWAY FROM CWA. HAVE A POP MINIMUM THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE
INCREASING SOME IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATES
AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM. ANOTHER IMPULSE SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...SO INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. NAM TRIES TO BRING A SLUG OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRIER. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFERENCE
IS IN THE PLACEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH. NAM STILL HAS IT OVER THE LOWER
OHIO RIVER VALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FARTHER
EAST. WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDING A
COUPLE DEGREES TO HIGHS EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL...DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LONG
TERM...AS UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A SYSTEM
APPROACHES LATE IN THE LONG TERM...SPREADING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE AREA...AND BRINGING IN COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT PCPN HAS INCREASED AFTER 06Z...BUT A TEMPORARY LULL ON RADAR
WAS APPROACHING CRW FROM THE NW NEAR 11Z.
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND HAVE CEILINGS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 THSD IN THE
OHIO VALLEY OF SE OHIO AND NE KY...LOWERING EAST...WITH WIDESPREAD
CEILINGS AOB 1 THSD FT OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WITH HIGHER RIDGES
OBSCURED.
WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MOSTLY
BLO 3 MILES IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS. SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING KBKW VCNTY TIL
14Z...COULD LEAVE SOME LIGHT GLAZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND METAL
OBJECTS.
HAVE STRATUS BECOMING SCATTERED TO BROKEN AROUND 2 THSD FT IN SE OH
AND NE KY INTO THE PKB-HTS CORRIDOR 06Z TO 12Z.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MOSTLY 14Z TO 22Z TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY VARY IN WV CAUSING MORE FLUCTUATION IN VSBY THAN
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN CEILINGS AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE EVAPORATING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
314 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MID/UPPER DISTURBANCES IN A MOIST NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BREAKS UP THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM TENNESSEE VALLEY TO END WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLDER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FILTER DOWN FROM THE NORTH. RAP MODEL
HAS ABOUT A MINUS 5 C AT 850 MB FOR 08Z...AND ABOUT MINUS 8C BY 21Z
TODAY.
THE FORECAST SOUNDING OFF THE NAM SHOWS THE TOP OF THE
MOIST LAYER AROUND 5 THSD FT MSL FOR THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THAT
TOP LOWERS BELOW 3 THSD FT MSL TONIGHT. AS IT GETS COLDER
ALOFT...THE BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPS MANAGES TO STAY NEAR THE TOP
OF THAT SHRINKING MOIST LAYER THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO WEAK CHANNELED
500 MB VORT MAXIMUMS DROPPING SE THROUGH OUR VCNTY TODAY...AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW NEAR NEW YORK CITY. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE OUR POPS MUCH HIGHER THAN MODEL MOS GUIDANCE IN THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE COUNTIES - EVEN THOUGH FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS. SPECIFIC HOURLY
POPS BECOME TOUGHER TO FIGURE AS YOU VENTURE WEST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER COUNTIES.
IN THE LOW CEILINGS...DID INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES AOB
32 DEGS.
NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN MAY NOT
GO ABOVE THEIR 12Z TEMPERATURE DURING THE DAY.
LIKED OUR PREVIOUS IDEA OF KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ABOVE MOST MOS GUIDANCE...SINCE WE ARE FORECASTING THE CEILINGS TO
HOLD. COLDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE BEST CHANCE OF PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE.
FOR THIS CURRENT NIGHT(TUESDAY NIGHT)...TODAY...AND TONIGHT...HAVE A
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR EACH OF THOSE PERIODS
ACROSS OUR HIGH COUNTRY...MOSTLY AOB 3500 FEET. SO NOTHING TO WRITE
HOME ABOUT FOR THESE DARK DAYS OF DECEMBER. OF COURSE...WITH THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES...UNTREATED ROADS COULD EASILY BECOME SLIPPERY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT...IN THE GRIPS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL
FINALLY BEGIN MOVING OUT SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE LOW TO OUR NE...WILL BE IN
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WOULD TYPICALLY PROVIDE
DECENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. HAVE POPS DECREASING THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES
AWAY FROM CWA. HAVE A POP MINIMUM THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE
INCREASING SOME IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATES
AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM. ANOTHER IMPULSE SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...SO INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. NAM TRIES TO BRING A SLUG OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRIER. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFERENCE
IS IN THE PLACEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH. NAM STILL HAS IT OVER THE LOWER
OHIO RIVER VALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FARTHER
EAST. WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDING A
COUPLE DEGREES TO HIGHS EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL...DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LONG
TERM...AS UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A SYSTEM
APPROACHES LATE IN THE LONG TERM...SPREADING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE AREA...AND BRINGING IN COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED 06Z TO 12Z AS LOW
LEVELS TURN COLDER AND CEILINGS LOWER.
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND HAVE CEILINGS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 THSD IN THE
OHIO VALLEY OF SE OHIO AND NE KY...LOWERING EAST...WITH WIDESPREAD
CEILINGS AOB 1 THSD FT OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WITH HIGHER RIDGES
OBSCURED.
WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MOSTLY
BLO 3 MILES IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING KBKW
VCNTY ON EITHER SIDE OF DAWN WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MOSTLY 14Z TO 22Z TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY VARY IN WV CAUSING MORE FLUCTUATION IN VSBY THAN
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 12/10/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN CEILINGS AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE EVAPORATING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
130 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE MIDWEST WILL BRING NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND AND
THE HIGH WILL BE MORE FIRMLY SETTLED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TO
SHIFT WINDS IN THE OHIO VALLEY MORE WESTERLY. AS THE LOW EJECTS
NORTHEAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND LATEST RAP ARE
INDICATING THAT THE SURFACE TO 2000 FOOT LAYER WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME LESS AND LESS SATURATED FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK. IN THE LOW LEVEL
CAA PATTERN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT BUT BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM READINGS...THIS APPEARS TO
BE BEING MODIFIED SOMEWHAT BY THE CLOUD COVER. MOST OF THE LATEST
HI RES MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
AROUND INTERSTATE 71 BY ABOUT 6 AM BUT THINK THIS MAY BE A TAD
FAST. AT ANY RATE...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY DIP BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE
DRIZZLE TAPERS OFF. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...DO NOT THINK PCPN
WOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH OR THE THE TIME PERIOD LONG ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN ICING ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LARGER SYNOPTIC
PRESSURE CENTERS SHIFT. COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL SLACKEN AND THE
THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL TURN OFF QUICKLY BEFORE DAYLIGHT
ENDS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 30S WITH LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING
IN THE LOWER 20S. THE NORTHWEST WINDS KEEPING UP SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALLS THAT WOULD OCCUR IF A
RADIATIONAL COOLING PATTERN WERE EVIDENT.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE MIDWEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
ACTUALLY BE WARMING AND PM LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL ONLY DROP TO
THE UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES AND OHIO VALLEY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TO INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE STACKED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
VERY SLOWLY...WITH ITS INFLUENCE STILL BEING FELT AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN OHIO ON FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE EASTWARD /
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL NOT BE FAST (FAILING TO
REALLY CLEAR THE COAST UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK)...THE INFLUENCE OF
TROUGHING WILL DIMINISH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY...ALLOWING
FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL
CENTER OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AT 925MB/850MB IS FORECAST
TO FLOW NORTH IN A CLOCKWISE MANNER AROUND THE RIDGING...BUT IT NOW
APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL NEAR-SURFACE SATURATION (SHALLOW AS IT
MAY BE) COULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATER ON SUNDAY. THIS MAKES FOR A RELATIVELY CALM FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND SOME PERIODS OF SUN
EXPECTED.
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...WITH THE RIDGE MOVING ONLY
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. WITH A STRONGER RIDGE...MODELS HAVE ALSO
SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WHICH IS WHERE ATTENTION WILL TURN FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM THIS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN TEXAS...AND AS ANOTHER
ASSOCIATED ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST...THE MODEL TREND FOR THIS
FEATURE HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK (AS THE LOW
WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND COASTAL
STATES). THE NORTHERN TREND PUTS THE OHIO VALLEY MORE DIRECTLY IN
THE PATH...BUT THE WEAKENING TREND MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LATEST 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS.
WHERE CAUTION IN THE FORECAST SPECIFICS IS ADVISED WOULD BE THE FACT
THAT GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING A WIDE SPREAD IN
STRENGTH/TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH...LEADING TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS BEYOND MONDAY. WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AT AROUND THE SAME
TIME...SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCLUDED. WHENEVER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...THE BRIEF WARM-UP WILL AT LEAST BE
TEMPORARILY HALTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE ELONGATED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE EAST COAST WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW ON ITS WEST SIDE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE TO CONTINUE TODAY AS THE MID LEVEL
LOW LIFTS NE TO PSN CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. LOW LEVEL CAA
WITH 8H THERMAL TROF THIS MORNING. IR SATL IMGRY SHOWS EXTENSIVE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THRU THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS THRU THE EARLY MORNING IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA
PATTERN. ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL LIFT A LTL AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT MVFR
TO CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL PUSH SOME DRIER AIR INTO REGION WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N/NW TODAY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PORTLAND OR
529 PM PST THU DEC 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST WEST OF CANNON BEACH
OREGON WILL MOVE NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRODUCING VERY STRONG...POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND HELP COOL TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM UPDATE...INFRA-RED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 01Z SHOWED
THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES NW TO N OF BUOY 089. LOWEST
RECORDED PRES AT BUOY 089 WAS 973.4 MB AT 2150Z. THE 0050Z READING
WAS 981.2 MB. BASED ON SATELLITE LOOOPER...THE LOW CENTER IS MAKING A
BEELINE FOR KUIL. THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH IN
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO NEAR 60 MPH. KPDX HIT 67
MPH AT 1721 PST...STRONGEST SINCE MAR 26 1971. KMMV AND KUAO HIT 61
MPH. THE LATEST SUMMARY CAN BE FOUND AT PDXPNSPQR. WIND WARNINGS FOR
THE SOUTHERN AREAS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z WHILE THE WARNINGS FOR
THE NORTH AREAS END AT 06Z. ALSO OF SECONDARY SIGNIFICANCE IS THE
NUMBER OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.WEISHAAR
REST OF THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST FOLLOWS...SO FAR THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND EXPECT THESE GUSTY WINDS TO TRACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE PORTLAND METRO AREA
AROUND 3 PM...POSSIBLY BEFORE WE DELIVER THIS DISCUSSION...AND ACROSS
SW WASHINGTON AROUND 4 PM. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BEHIND
THE LOW THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTH AND TONIGHT NORTH OF SALEM.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON SHOWERS QUITE A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND EVEN MORE SO FOR TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
REMAINED WELL OFFSHORE FOR THE MOST PART...BUT AREAS OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON HAVE SEEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND HAVE
CONTINUED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED
SHOWERS FOR LANE COUNTY. ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH
COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
THE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL PROVIDING AND EXPECT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING PUTTING AN END TO THE RAIN. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND
RADIATION FOG IS LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL STRENGTHEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC AND EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THESE OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE MORE CLEARING...DRIER WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THE TROUTDALE TO DALLES EASTERLY GRADIENT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 7 MB BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 TO 40 KT THROUGH THE
GORGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE FURTHER COOLING FOR THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. TJ
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR THE GORGE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO
ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE REGION. THE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP
SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO
ARRIVE ON OUR DOORSTEPS ON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. /64
&&
.AVIATION...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR VIS AND CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES. STRONG
SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 50 KT AT THE COAST AND 45 KT INLAND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 03Z FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT MOST TAF SITES. HOWEVER...AS THE WINDS WEAKEN
AND THE SKIES CLEAR WE COULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW
LEVEL STRATUS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AFTER
12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THE MOMENT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 03Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. /64
&&
.MARINE...OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTH WITH THE APPROXIMATE
CENTER ABOUT 60 NM OFF OF LINCOLN CITY AT 130 PM. BUOY 89
REPORTING A CURRENT PRESSURE OF 975 MB WITH THE LOW CENTER STILL
ON THE WAY. LOOKS LIKE MODELS FROM YESTERDAY MAY HAVE HANDLED THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE A BIT BETTER. REGARDLESS...FEELING LIKE THE
FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK WITH A 1030 AM ASCAT SATELLITE PASS
SHOWING 50 KT SUSTAINED WINDS OFF THE PORT ORFORD COAST AND THOSE
TEND TO RUN TOO LOW AT THE HIGHER SPEEDS. GENERALLY EXPECT STORM
FORCE WINDS TO REACH TILLAMOOK AROUND 2 PM WITH HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LOW...ALTHOUGH STILL A BIT WEAK ON THE
STRENGTH. STILL SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF HURRICANE FORCE
GUSTS...65 KT AND LOCALLY 70 KT...FROM THE CENTRAL INNER WATERS
AND IN A V PATTERN TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT LEAST.
THESE EXTREME WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER BUT WITH SOLID GUSTS 45 TO 55 OR 60 KT NORTH OF THE
COLUMBIA. AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING...WILL SEE
WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY AND DRAMATICALLY DROP OF OVER THE FOLLOWING 6
TO 10 HOURS. IN FACT...MOST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 15 KT OR LESS BY
10 AM FRIDAY.
SEAS HAVE INDEED RESPONDED AS EXPECTED. BUOY 15 OFF PORT ORFORD
HAS RISEN TO 31 FEET/11 SECONDS AND LARGELY STABILIZED THERE AT
1PM WITH BUOY 50 HAVING ECLIPSED 22 FEET/11 SECONDS. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE WINDS INCREASE THE LOW PUSHES NORTH.
GIVEN THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...SEAS ARE PRIMARILY WIND
WAVE/FRESH SWELL DRIVEN AND SHOULD SUBSIDE ALMOST AS QUICKLY.
FEEL SEAS WILL BE BACK INTO THE HIGH TEENS ALL AREAS NO LATER THAN
DAYBREAK AND TO THE LOW TEENS BY NOON.
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW DEEPENS WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH EASTERLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS PROBABLE
BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 FEET
FROM LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. /JBONK
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE
FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN
OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR GREATER
PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COAST RANGE
OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR GREATER
VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.
PZ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL NOON
PST FRIDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1053 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKES AND EVEN SOME
MOISTURE WRAPPING ALL THE WAY AROUND THE LOW WILL CREATE LIGHT
BUT NEARLY CONSTANT SNOW OVER THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS INTO
FRIDAY. RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD
TO REPLACE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AND THE WEATHER REMAIN
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL MOVE ONLY VERY
SLIGHTLY AND SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. MOISTURE AND GOOD FORCING TO THE N/W OF THIS DOMINANT FEATURE
IS SLIDING INTO THE NERN COUNTIES AND BACK INTO FAR WRN NY STATE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT BREAK AT THIS TIME...AND DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE WIDENING A BIT. TEMPS RUNNING JUST A HINT ABOVE CURR
FCST CURVE IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS...BUT COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE TEMPS STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL SNOW AMTS THIS AFTN IN THE NE SHOULD BE LESS THAN 2
INCHES EVEN IN THE LOCATIONS IT DOES SNOW ALMOST CONTINUALLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
11 AM UPDATE...
THE GENERALLY LIGHT AND CONSTANT SNOW FROM WRN NY STATE SHOULD
SLIDE EVEN FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE
VERY LOW ON QPF BUT COLD TEMPS AND PRETTY DECENT DGZ IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE CLOUD LAYER COULD MAKE SLR/S BETTER THAN 15:1.
THEREFORE...A NEW ADVY FOR THE UPCOMING NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE
PONDERED - MAINLY FOR THE NRN TIER AND PERHAPS THE LAURELS.
AGAIN...SOMETHING FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.
PREV...
THE SHORT TO MID RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THE POSITION
AND TRACK OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT WILL SLOWLY
PIVOT/WOBBLE NE ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THE MAIN ACTION TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST WHERE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL
FALL...ADDING ANOTHER FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OVER THIS FAIRLY LONG
TIME SPAN. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OVER ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD DON/T
REALLY GET OVER 3 INCHES...SO NO ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ATTM.
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION...EXPECT TO SEE FLURRIES MUCH OF THE TIME WITH OCNL LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. 24 HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A COATING TO INCH ARE
LIKELY TO THE SE OF THE I-99/RT 80/220 CORRIDOR...WHILE AROUND 2
INCHES COULD OCCUR RIGHT ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE PLATEAU.
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AND LES AREAS
OF NW PENN...AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 219
WHERE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED MINIMAL ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FOR NOW...WE/LL LET THE FORECAST AND POINT AND CLICK SNOW TOTALS
SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES WITH NO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
EXPECTED BE ISSUED FOR THE SECOND THROUGH 4TH PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST BEFORE LATE MORNING AT THE EARLIEST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO
AROUND 30 IN THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN SOUTHERN PA.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 20S IN
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WITH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER ONCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CUTS OFF EARLY FRIDAY...THE
PRECIP WILL FADE WITH ONLY THE NW MTNS STILL RECEIVING LIGHT
SNOWFALL.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
UPPER LOW TO NUDGE EASTWARD AND ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. ENOUGH TO HAVE US BEGINNING TO ENJOY THE
INFLUENCE OF SOME RIDGING AND FAIRER CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11 AM UPDATE...
GENERALLY MVFR IN THE USUAL SPOTS AND CURR ONLY JST IN THE LOW
CLOUDS. BUT SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH HALTED THERE AS WELL. THE SNOW
SHOULD RETURN TO BFD FROM THE N THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BFD
OBS HAVING TROUBLE GETTING THRU THE WIRES...FAA IS WORKING ON THE
PROBLEM.
PREV...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN MA AT 10/06Z IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURS AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES. THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
PUSH EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRI/SAT.
HI RES HRRR WAS CORRECT IN SHOWING THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE WRAP AROUND SNOW BAND /CURRENTLY FROM AVP NWWD INTO NY
AIRSPACE/ WOULD FIZZLE OUT EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS FROM
06Z NOW STRONGLY FAVOR WRAP AROUND/UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE FOR A LONG
DURATION THROUGH THURSDAY. ABOVE AVG CONFIDENCE STILL EXISTS WITH
RELATIVELY STABLE FLGT CATS: PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR AND LIFR
REMAINS A VERY GOOD BET AT JST/BFD WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR
TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL BE
INCREASING WINDS FROM 330-300 DEG. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SUSTAINED
SFC WINDS 15-20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS LASTING WELL INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW NORTH/WEST. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL
AND EAST. STRONG N-NW WINDS 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
FRI...MVFR/IFR IN -SHSN NORTH/WEST. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.
SAT...MVFR CIGS/-SHSN EARLY WEST...BCMG VFR.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
AVIATION...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
703 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENSIVE PLUME OF DEEPENING MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST
SIDE OF A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BRING CLOUDY AND
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SNOW TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
AN ADDITIONAL FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
OCCASIONAL LIGHTER SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF THE STATE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND
AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM
THE EASTERN GLAKES AND HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...SOUTH TO THE
CAROLINA COAST. A FEW SPOKES OF ENERGY LIFTING NW AND WEST AROUND
THIS TROUGH WILL HELP IT TO TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEG TILT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCREASING THE TAP OF MOISTURE OFF THE WRN
ATLANTIC...WHILE ALSO LEADING TO A DEEP AND WELL-ALIGNED/MOIST
NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE GLAKES...AND AIMED AT THE NW SNOWBELT AND
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
WEAK TO MDT ECHOES SEE ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC WILL EXPAND A BIT TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS
OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AT 09Z INCREASING A TAD IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE DAY TODAY.
TRIMMED A FEW MID SUSQ VALLEY COUNTIES OUT OF THE PRESENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...THAT RUNS UNTIL 17Z INVOF OF KIPT AND POINTS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST.
CLOUDY SKIES AND INCREASINGLY COLD ADVECTION AT LLVLS VIA A GUSTY
NW WIND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY FALLING
ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENN.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW TO SVRL DEG F BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
DECEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SHORT TO MID RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THE POSITION
AND TRACK OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT WILL SLOWLY
PIVOT/WOBBLE NE ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THE MAIN ACTION TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST WHERE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL
FALL...ADDING ANOTHER FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OVER THIS FAIRLY LONG
TIME SPAN. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OVER ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD DON/T
REALLY GET OVER 3 INCHES...SO NO ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ATTM.
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION...EXPECT TO SEE FLURRIES MUCH OF THE TIME WITH OCNL LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. 24 HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A COATING TO INCH ARE
LIKELY TO THE SE OF THE I-99/RT 80/220 CORRIDOR...WHILE AROUND 2
INCHES COULD OCCUR RIGHT ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE PLATEAU.
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AND LES AREAS
OF NW PENN...AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 219
WHERE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED MINIMAL ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FOR NOW...WE/LL LET THE FORECAST AND POINT AND CLICK SNOW TOTALS
SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES WITH NO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
EXPECTED BE ISSUED FOR THE SECOND THROUGH 4TH PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST BEFORE LATE MORNING AT THE EARLIEST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO
AROUND 30 IN THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN SOUTHERN PA.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 20S IN
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WITH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER ONCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CUTS OFF EARLY FRIDAY...THE
PRECIP WILL FADE WITH ONLY THE NW MTNS STILL RECEIVING LIGHT
SNOWFALL.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
UPPER LOW TO NUDGE EASTWARD AND ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. ENOUGH TO HAVE US BEGINNING TO ENJOY THE
INFLUENCE OF SOME RIDGING AND FAIRER CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN MA AT 10/06Z IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURS AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES. THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
PUSH EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRI/SAT.
HI RES HRRR WAS CORRECT IN SHOWING THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE WRAP AROUND SNOW BAND /CURRENTLY FROM AVP NWWD INTO NY
AIRSPACE/ WOULD FIZZLE OUT EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS FROM
06Z NOW STRONGLY FAVOR WRAP AROUND/UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE FOR A LONG
DURATION THROUGH THURSDAY. ABOVE AVG CONFIDENCE STILL EXISTS WITH
RELATIVELY STABLE FLGT CATS: PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR AND LIFR
REMAINS A VERY GOOD BET AT JST/BFD WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR
TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL BE
INCREASING WINDS FROM 330-300 DEG. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SUSTAINED
SFC WINDS 15-20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS LASTING WELL INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW NORTH/WEST. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL
AND EAST. STRONG N-NW WINDS 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
FRI...MVFR/IFR IN -SHSN NORTH/WEST. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.
SAT...MVFR CIGS/-SHSN EARLY WEST...BCMG VFR.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ037-041-
042-053-058.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
500 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENSIVE PLUME OF DEEPENING MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST
SIDE OF A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BRING CLOUDY AND
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SNOW TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
AN ADDITIONAL FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
OCCASIONAL LIGHTER SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF THE STATE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND
AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM
THE EASTERN GLAKES AND HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...SOUTH TO THE
CAROLINA COAST. A FEW SPOKES OF ENERGY LIFTING NW AND WEST AROUND
THIS TROUGH WILL HELP IT TO TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEG TILT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCREASING THE TAP OF MOISTURE OFF THE WRN
ATLANTIC...WHILE ALSO LEADING TO A DEEP AND WELL-ALIGNED/MOIST
NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE GLAKES...AND AIMED AT THE NW SNOWBELT AND
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
WEAK TO MDT ECHOES SEE ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC WILL EXPAND A BIT TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS
OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AT 09Z INCREASING A TAD IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE DAY TODAY.
TRIMMED A FEW MID SUSQ VALLEY COUNTIES OUT OF THE PRESENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...THAT RUNS UNTIL 17Z INVOF OF KIPT AND POINTS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST.
CLOUDY SKIES AND INCREASINGLY COLD ADVECTION AT LLVLS VIA A GUSTY
NW WIND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY FALLING
ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENN.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW TO SVRL DEG F BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
DECEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SHORT TO MID RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THE POSITION
AND TRACK OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT WILL SLOWLY
PIVOT/WOBBLE NE ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THE MAIN ACTION TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST WHERE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL
FALL...ADDING ANOTHER FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OVER THIS FAIRLY LONG
TIME SPAN. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OVER ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD DON/T
REALLY GET OVER 3 INCHES...SO NO ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ATTM.
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION...EXPECT TO SEE FLURRIES MUCH OF THE TIME WITH OCNL LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. 24 HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A COATING TO INCH ARE
LIKELY TO THE SE OF THE I-99/RT 80/220 CORRIDOR...WHHILE AROUND 2
INCHES COULD OCCUR RIGHT ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE PLATEAU.
WILL HAVE TO CLOSLY WATCH THE FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AND LES AREAS OF
NW PENN...AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 219 WHERE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED MINIMAL ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR
NOW...WE/LL LET THE FORECAST AND POINT AND CLICK SNOW TOTALS SPEAK
FOR THEMSELVES WITH NO ADDIITONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
EXPECTEDTO BE ISSUED FOR THE SECOND THROUGH 4TH PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST BEFORE LATE MORNING AT THE EARLIEST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO
AROUND 30 IN THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN SOUTHERN PA.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 20S IN
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WITH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER ONCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CUTS OFF EARLY FRIDAY...THE
PRECIP WILL FADE WITH ONLY THE NW MTNS STILL RECEIVING LIGHT
SNOWFALL.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
UPPER LOW TO NUDGE EASTWARD AND ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. ENOUGH TO HAVE US BEGINNING TO ENJOY THE
INFLUENCE OF SOME RIDGING AND FAIRER CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN MA AT 10/06Z IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURS AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES. THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
PUSH EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRI/SAT.
RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LACKLUSTER WRAP AROUND
BAND OF MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW NEAR AVP-LNS
LINE. HI RES HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND
FIZZLES OUT OR SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
WOULD FAVOR TWO AREAS OF WRAP-AROUND SNOW SETTING UP OVER NERN PA
AND OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
PCPN/SNOW DETAILS IS LOW. BETTER CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH RELATIVELY
STABLE FLGT CATS: IFR AND LIFR IN A VERY GOOD BET AT JST/BFD WITH
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
SOUNDINGS WOULD FAVOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZDZ AT BFD/JST BEFORE
CHANGING TO -SN. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WINDS
FROM 330-300 DEG. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SUSTAINED SFC WNDS 15-20KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW NORTH/WEST. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL
AND EAST. STRONG N-NW WINDS 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
FRI...MVFR/IFR IN -SHSN NORTH/WEST. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.
SAT...MVFR CIGS/-SHSN EARLY WEST...BCMG VFR.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ037-041-
042-053-058.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/LA CORTE
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
142 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER UNSETTLED INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER MY EASTERN COUNTIES
PRODUCING STOPS AND STARTS OF LIGHT RAINFALL LATE THIS EVENING.
SFC LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WILL HELP DRAW COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...AS SHARP H5 TROF AXIS DEEPENS AND
TRANSLATES EASTWARD TO THE PA/NJ BORDER BY 12Z WED.
STILL ANTICIPATE A CHANGEOVER AND AN INVIGORATED DEFORMATION ZONE
OVER MY EASTERN COUNTIES A FEW HOURS PAST MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...SO CURRENT ADVISORIES WILL BE HELD ONTO FOR NOW.
ELSEWHERE...LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR FROM
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER WITH ANY ACCUMS
LESS THAN ONE INCH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SHORT TO MID RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THE POSITION
AND TRACK OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT`S STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH TOTAL
PRECIP WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM AS THE MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE. THE SOLUTION FALLS
BETWEEN THE ECMWF THAT TARGETS THE NORTH- CENTRAL AND NWRN ZONES
THROUGH WED INTO THURSDAY.THE GFS SHOWS ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP WRAPPING BACK. THE NAM AND SREF APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY GOOD
COMPROMISES...DISPLAYING A WELL- DEFINED DRY SLOT SURGING NORTH
THROUGH NJ AND FAR ERN PENN LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY /WITH A
LARGE AREA OF DEFORMATION LIGHT- MDT SNOW ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY
AND SURROUND COUNTIES. ALSO...GIVEN THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND A PERSISTENT LLJ...THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WHILE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY AROUND -8C...THERE ISN`T A HUGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL WITH
LAKE TEMPS...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH...AND WITH THE UPSLOPE
FLOW TO INCREASE SNOWFALL. THIS SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE LAURELS AND
ALLEGHENIES.
HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY BUT ABOUT A 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ABOUT 1 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE LAURELS.
MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT QPF THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THE ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
LATER SHIFTS WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER WINTER WEATHER OR LES
ADVISORIES FOR BOTH THE SYNOPTIC DEFORMATION SNOW THROUGH NW
CENTRAL PA...AND LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWS ACROSS
THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS IN THE BROAD/DEEP AND MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW JUST TO THE WEST OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30F ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WITH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER ONCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CUTS OFF EARLY FRIDAY...THE
PRECIP WILL FADE WITH ONLY THE NW MTNS STILL RECEIVING LIGHT
SNOWFALL.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
UPPER LOW TO NUDGE EASTWARD AND ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. ENOUGH TO HAVE US BEGINNING TO ENJOY THE
INFLUENCE OF SOME RIDGING AND FAIRER CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN MA AT 10/06Z IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURS AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES. THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
PUSH EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRI/SAT.
RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LACKLUSTER WRAP AROUND
BAND OF MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW NEAR AVP-LNS
LINE. HI RES HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND
FIZZLES OUT OR SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
WOULD FAVOR TWO AREAS OF WRAP-AROUND SNOW SETTING UP OVER NERN PA
AND OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
PCPN/SNOW DETAILS IS LOW. BETTER CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH RELATIVELY
STABLE FLGT CATS: IFR AND LIFR IN A VERY GOOD BET AT JST/BFD WITH
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
SOUNDINGS WOULD FAVOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZDZ AT BFD/JST BEFORE
CHANGING TO -SN. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WINDS
FROM 330-300 DEG. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SUSTAINED SFC WNDS 15-20KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW NORTH/WEST. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL
AND EAST. STRONG N-NW WINDS 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
FRI...MVFR/IFR IN -SHSN NORTH/WEST. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.
SAT...MVFR CIGS/-SHSN EARLY WEST...BCMG VFR.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ037-041-
042-046-051>053-058.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
137 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER UNSETTLED INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER MY EASTERN COUNTIES
PRODUCING STOPS AND STARTS OF LIGHT RAINFALL LATE THIS EVENING.
SFC LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WILL HELP DRAW COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...AS SHARP H5 TROF AXIS DEEPENS AND
TRANSLATES EASTWARD TO THE PA/NJ BORDER BY 12Z WED.
STILL ANTICIPATE A CHANGEOVER AND AN INVIGORATED DEFORMATION ZONE
OVER MY EASTERN COUNTIES A FEW HOURS PAST MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...SO CURRENT ADVISORIES WILL BE HELD ONTO FOR NOW.
ELSEWHERE...LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR FROM
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER WITH ANY ACCUMS
LESS THAN ONE INCH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SHORT TO MID RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THE POSITION
AND TRACK OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT`S STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH TOTAL
PRECIP WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM AS THE MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE. THE SOLUTION FALLS
BETWEEN THE ECMWF THAT TARGETS THE NORTH- CENTRAL AND NWRN ZONES
THROUGH WED INTO THURSDAY.THE GFS SHOWS ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP WRAPPING BACK. THE NAM AND SREF APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY GOOD
COMPROMISES...DISPLAYING A WELL- DEFINED DRY SLOT SURGING NORTH
THROUGH NJ AND FAR ERN PENN LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY /WITH A
LARGE AREA OF DEFORMATION LIGHT- MDT SNOW ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY
AND SURROUND COUNTIES. ALSO...GIVEN THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND A PERSISTENT LLJ...THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WHILE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY AROUND -8C...THERE ISN`T A HUGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL WITH
LAKE TEMPS...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH...AND WITH THE UPSLOPE
FLOW TO INCREASE SNOWFALL. THIS SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE LAURELS AND
ALLEGHENIES.
HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY BUT ABOUT A 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ABOUT 1 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE LAURELS.
MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT QPF THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THE ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
LATER SHIFTS WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER WINTER WEATHER OR LES
ADVISORIES FOR BOTH THE SYNOPTIC DEFORMATION SNOW THROUGH NW
CENTRAL PA...AND LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWS ACROSS
THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS IN THE BROAD/DEEP AND MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW JUST TO THE WEST OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30F ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WITH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER ONCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CUTS OFF EARLY FRIDAY...THE
PRECIP WILL FADE WITH ONLY THE NW MTNS STILL RECEIVING LIGHT
SNOWFALL.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
UPPER LOW TO NUDGE EASTWARD AND ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. ENOUGH TO HAVE US BEGINNING TO ENJOY THE
INFLUENCE OF SOME RIDGING AND FAIRER CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN MA AT 10/06Z IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURS AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES. THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
PUSH EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRI/SAT.
RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LACKLUSTER WRAP AROUND
BAND OF MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW NEAR AVP-LNS
LINE. HI RES HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND
FIZZLES OUT OR SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
WOULD FAVOR TWO AREAS OF WRAP-AROUND SNOW SETTING UP OVER NERN PA
AND OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
PCPN/SNOW DETAILS IS LOW. BETTER CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH RELATIVELY
STABLE FLGT CATS: IFR AND LIFR A VERY GOOD BET AT JST/BFD WITH
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES. THE
OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WINDS FROM 330-300 DEG.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SUSTAINED SFC WNDS 15-20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW NORTH/WEST. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL
AND EAST. STRONG N-NW WINDS 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
FRI...MVFR/IFR IN -SHSN NORTH/WEST. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.
SAT...MVFR CIGS/-SHSN EARLY WEST...BCMG VFR.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ037-041-
042-046-051>053-058.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
514 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2014
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Stubborn low cigs have hung on across the Permian Basin this
afternoon, but have cleared across the rest of the region. The
clearing line is currently stretched across southern Ector and
Midland counties. The RUC seems to be handling these clouds the
best with low cigs at KMAF breaking around 12/02Z. With clearing
skies overnight, the area is once again primed for strong
radiational cooling and dense fog. Visibilities should begin to
fall later this evening before bottoming out below 1SM after
midnight. VFR conditions will return around Noon Friday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge will build over the forecast area tonight
through Friday night and should result in generally fair weather.
The one caveat these periods is that decent low level moisture
will remain over the area and will result in extensive low clouds.
In addition light winds will combine with the moisture and
encourage areas of fog to develop tonight and Friday night. The
fog could be dense tonight in the Guadalupe mountains and the
southeast New Mexico Plains where skies will clear this evening.
Later shifts will need to monitor for a possible advisory. Due
to the low clouds and fog expected, generally went above guidance
on low temperatures through Saturday morning and toward the lower
guidance on high temperatures Friday.
The aforementioned upper ridge will move east Friday night and be
replaced by a southern stream system moving inland from the west
coast to the four corners region by Saturday evening. This upper
system is forecast to intensify as it closes off as it moves east
across the southern Rockies Sunday and translates to the southern
plains by Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Saturday night and Sunday near the cold pool aloft across
northern sections of the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico
closer to the upper low and along the surface cold front across
the Permian Basin late Saturday night and Sunday. Much above
normal temperatures are expected Saturday with surface troughing
intensifying ahead of the upper system. The associated Pacific
front is expected to pass through the day Sunday, knocking
temperatures back to more normal values. In addition breezy to
windy conditions will likely develop Sunday as the surface
pressure gradient increases behind the surface low.
Dry with below normal temperatures are expected next Monday
through Wednesday behind a northern stream cold front and
building surface high pressure. Another southern stream system
is forecast to approach the area from the southwest later
Wednesday and next Thursday with showers possible Thursday with
near or slightly below normal temperatures.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1046 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON AVAILABLE 4KM HRRR AND TTU MODELS AS WELL AS
NEW SYNOPTIC MODEL DATA...AM GOING TO DELAY THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATER IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. APPEARS BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH 11/00Z WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS (AND MAINLY NORTH
OF TERMINALS)...SO AM RELUCTANT TO GO AND MORE THAN PROB30 OVER
THE EASTERN TERMINALS. AT KLRD...LOOKS LIKE FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF TERMINAL...BUT WILL HAVE A
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON -RA WITH ISENTROPIC PATTERN DEVELOPING (AND
GETS BETTER IN THE EVENING). BESIDES THE RAINFALL...WILL ALSO
DELAY CIGS DECREASING TO MVFR AT KLRD (NOT UNTIL 19Z) AND KALI
(NOT UNTIL 11/02Z). BELIEVE CIGS WILL STAY ABOVE MVFR AT KVCT AND
KCRP SINCE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. COULD
HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT KLRD AND KALI (WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE) WHICH WILL HELP BRING CIGS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS.
OVERALL...WIND FORECAST FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 00Z TERMINAL FORECAST
ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY FALL DURING THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR (VFR CIGS) THROUGH
THE TERMINAL FORECAST OUTSIDE THE AREAS WHERE RAIN MIGHT OCCUR.
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KLRD...WHERE AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP AOB 19Z. CONCERNING FOG...THINK MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PRECLUDE MOST FOG ISSUES...BUT DID KEEP THE TEMPO MVFR BR WHERE
FOG WAS ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS TERMINAL FORECAST PACKAGE.
CONCERNING RAIN...LOOKS LIKE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN TAFS (PROB30)...WITH TEMPOS IN THE
AFTERNOON AT KLRD (BUT ALSO DID INCLUDE PROB30 AT KLRD DURING THE
MORNING HOURS). MAINLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AGAIN (E OR SE FOR MOST
PART)...THEN SE ON WEDNESDAY BUT MAINLY LESS THAN 11 KNOTS (BIT
HIGHER AT KCRP).
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...LIGHT EAST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO A SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES MORE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO IS PROGGED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. AS WEAK LIFT MOVES OVER THE
REGION MODELS INDICATE INCREASING PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS (AROUND 1.4 INCHES) ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/RAIN...DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST TOMORROW
MORNING AND SPREADING FURTHER EAST THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A BROAD BAGGY MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THU WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PROGD TO TRACK ACROSS THE CWA. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE SHORT
WAVE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA`S ON THU. THEREFORE
EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHC FARTHER S INTO THE COASTAL BEND. WEAK
RIDGING FRI-SAT WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY 80...ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND ON
SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO FCST A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BUT ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH STRENGTH AND POSITION WHICH WILL
DETERMINE PRECIP CHCS FOR S TX. LATEST RUNS ARE A TAD FARTHER N
WHICH WILL KEEP THE STRONGER STORMS N AND NE OF THE CWA. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COLD FRONT THRU S TX LATE SUN OR MON WHICH
WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR PRECIP. THE GFS IS ALSO
SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY AHD OF THE BDRY. THEREFORE KEPT A CHC FOR
TSRA`S ON SUN THEN SHOW THE TREND OF PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
THROUGH MON. WITH THIS SCENARIO...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
FILTER INTO S TX MON THROUGH TUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 53 70 60 73 60 / 10 20 10 20 10
VICTORIA 48 68 55 70 54 / 10 20 20 20 10
LAREDO 55 70 60 76 60 / 10 40 20 10 10
ALICE 54 71 59 74 59 / 10 30 10 20 10
ROCKPORT 55 70 59 71 60 / 10 10 10 20 10
COTULLA 55 67 57 74 59 / 10 40 30 20 10
KINGSVILLE 54 72 60 74 60 / 10 20 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 56 70 62 72 62 / 10 10 10 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1151 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FORECAST PROBLEM
TONIGHT AND LIKELY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
UNBREAKABLE INVERSION THAT ACTUALLY STRENGTHENS TONIGHT. I SEE NO
REASON WHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD NOT CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND BEYOND. LAST NIGHT THERE WERE ISOLATED AREAS OF
DENSE FOG WHERE VISIBILITIES DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE OR SO AS
WELL AS SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT OCCURRED FOR A COUPLE
HOURS THIS MORNING. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY REPEAT TONIGHT. THE
QUESTION BECOMES WILL IT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.
I DO EXPECT SOME EXPANSION OF LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG
HOWEVER IT MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY AND THUS DID
NOT PUT ONE OUT. I WILL HOWEVER ADVISE THE EVENING SHIFT THAT ONE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OR FAR NORTH MAY BE NECESSARY LATE TONIGHT.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE 925MB MOISTURE ADVECTION YOU CAN SEE THAT THE
BETTER ADVECTION OCCURS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE NAM IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS BUT THE RAP ALSO INCREASES
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THIS TIME...JUST FURTHER NW. TAKING A
LOOK AT THE HRRR AVIATION FLIGHT RULE PARAMETER AND VISIBILITY AND
THE HOPWRF VISIBILITY THEY CONFIRM THAT LOWER VISIBILITIES OCCUR
ACROSS THE NW MAINLY AFTER 09Z. IF DENSE FOG WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING. PATCHES OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/MIST THIS MORNING WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
OVER NORTHERN IOWA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTHS WILL BE SUPPRESSED A
BIT FROM AROUND 2.5 KFT TODAY TO AROUND 2 KFT FRIDAY MORNING. THAT
SAID...LOW LEVEL COLLISION COALESCENCE SHOULD STILL BE ONGOING
ENOUGH FROM MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR A FEW PATCHES OF MIST OR
DRIZZLE TO OCCUR AND COULD CAUSE A FEW ICY SPOTS ON ROADWAYS.
OTHERWISE...THE WARMING PROCESS WILL REMAIN SLOW ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER INVERSION KEEPS MOISTURE BELOW TRAPPED AND WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL WILL
BE DIRECTLY CORRELATED TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION PROCESSES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM DEWPOINT VALUES AND HAVE
CONTINUE TO TEMPER HIGHS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY TO RISING
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AND DEEPEN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN IOWA MAY HAVE
DENSE FOG DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY NOT HAVE MUCH IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DRIZZLE WILL BE HEAVY
ENOUGH FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE REMOVED
RAIN MENTION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVELS REMAINING QUITE
DRY HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING A DREARY DAY WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN IOWA TO HAVE A PERIOD OF SUN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IF THAT OCCURS...CERTAINLY COULD HAVE EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL
RISE INTO THE 40S TO EVEN 50S OVER THE SOUTH THUS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING.
THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE BY LATE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
DROPS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
COMMENCE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES
ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT IOWA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STILL A LOT OF GUIDANCE VARIABILITY TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF MUCH FARTHER NORTH
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO SQUASH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF NORTHEAST CURVATURE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY
SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION A GOOD
MEDIUM AND PREFERRED. MIXED PHASE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AS THE
COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST/NW AND DO NOT EXPECT A STRAIGHT
RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION. LIKELY TO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET IN BETWEEN LATE MONDAY OVER THE NORTHWEST THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW LIKELY WILL LINGER INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. COULD MEET WINTER HEADLINE
CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST IOWA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...12/06Z
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
IFR TO MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL
IOWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ATTM...MVFR CIGS HAVE STARTED TO
LOWER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
...CONSISTENT WITH HIGH RES MODEL FORECASTS. HAVE THUS LEANED ON
THESE FORECASTS TO CONTINUE TRENDING CIGS DOWN OVERNIGHT BACK TO
IFR BEFORE SUNRISE. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OVER THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BUT IFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTH.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SKOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
335 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. ACCORDINGLY...READINGS
EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS
TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ON THE RIDGES.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT DEPICTING THE SLOW RETREAT
OF THE DEEP AND BLOCKY NORTHEASTERN LOW. WHILE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE PATTERN WILL BE STARVED OF MID LEVEL ENERGY AND HEIGHTS WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR TODAY THIS WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY. IT WILL ALSO MEAN A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THAT A THICK LAYER OF LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...
PERHAPS HOLDING ON THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SO...DESPITE THE HIGH
PRESSURE THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RUIN WHAT SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY
AND ALSO KEEP SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH MORE
THAN THEY WILL THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE TAKEN THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND MADE
SOME SUCH PESSIMISTIC ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN FACT...
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT POCKETS OF DRIZZLE FALLING OUT OF THESE
LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS WITH SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS MADE TONIGHT...MAINLY
EARLY. AS FOR POPS AND WX...KEPT THEM LOW AND NON-EXISTENT FRIDAY
GIVEN THE HIGH PRESSURE REGIME NOW IN PLACE...AND IN LINE WITH SINGLE
DIGIT MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES INTO
THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL EXHIBIT A PATTERN OF CHANGE AS THE
NOREASTER FINALLY STARTS ITS SHIFT EASTWARD...AND ALLOWS FOR A
CHANGING AND LESS SETTLING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
WHILE THE NOREASTER IS BREWING JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH WILL BEGIN IMPOSING ON THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES STRENGTHENING INTO CLOSED LOWS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 0 AND 12Z SUNDAY. AS THEY SHIFT EASTWARD...THIS
WILL PUSH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND KEEP CALM CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE ONLY
CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POPS/MOISTURE TO ROUND THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE TROUGH /NAMELY POINTS TO OUR NORTH/. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...KEPT IN PLACE BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THIS
MOISTURE WILL FINALLY DEPART BY MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
JUST TO OUR EAST...AND WE START TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE
INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FIRST CLOSED LOW.
BY 12Z MONDAY...THIS LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE SECONDARY CLOSED LOW TO IT/S
NE. AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ENSUE ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BOOST TEMPS UP INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE CWA...AS WELL AS PULL IN MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF COAST. WHILE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE US CLEARING OUT IN THE LOW LEVELS MONDAY
WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE INDUCED INVERSION...IN
THE UPPER LEVELS CLOUDS WILL BEGIN THICKENING AGAIN. THIS LAST MODEL
RUN...THE GFS AND ECWMF HAVE FINALLY COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT
FOR THE START AND END TIMES OF THIS PRECIP BAND. BOTH SHOW THE
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z TUESDAY.
ORIGINALLY...THE GFS CUT PRECIP POTENTIAL OFF BY 0Z
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HELD ONTO UPSLOPE PRECIP SOME 12 HOURS
LONGER. WITH THIS LATEST MODEL RUN...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE ECMWF IS
NOW STEERING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...WHICH IS A BIT
SURPRISING CONSIDERING THAT THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE. AS
SUCH...KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND /INCLUDING THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE
ECMWF/...IN WHICH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN MAY LINGER OVER THE SE
HIGH TERRAIN TIL AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
ANOTHER...MORE MILD...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ACROSS KY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS BY
THIS POINT...SO WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/S
FORECAST WAS ALTERED AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS IT IS
NOW...A SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY FRIDAY...BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE REGION. REGARDLESS...THE LACK OF
LARGE VARIATIONS ALOFT...AS WELL AS CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER...WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME
LOWER CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
252 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2014
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 249 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2014
We`ll have quiet weather during this short term period as the center
of a dome of high pressure drifts from Paducah to Nashville. Though
there will be some clouds in the sky today, we`ll still be able to
enjoy a healthy amount of sunshine. Afternoon highs should
generally be in the middle 40s, with just a light westerly breeze.
Tonight low clouds will invade from the west as a large area of
stratus over the Plains and Midwest today swells eastward. Skies
will likely become mostly cloudy tonight and remain that way through
Saturday. However, measurable precipitation is not expected due to
a lack of lift and the fact that the cloud layer will be relatively
shallow. Lows tonight should be around the 30 degree mark. High
temperatures on Saturday are challenging and will be highly
dependent on cloud cover. For now will go on the cool side of the
guidance consensus with readings in the middle and upper 40s, but
those numbers may be too warm given the possibility of a widespread
overcast.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 230 AM Fri Dec 12 2014
Main highlights in the long term period are clouds/temperatures this
weekend, rain chances Monday and Tuesday, then a period of
seasonable and drier weather to round out next week.
The upper level blocking pattern will remain in place Saturday
night, with the east coast closed low beginning to lose its grip
while the west coast shortwave digs across the southwest US. With
ridging in between, there`s plenty of warm air advection going on
above 850 mb, however, moisture trapped in a low level inversion
will keep the forecast challenge on clouds/temperatures.
Soundings show that the inversion strengthens Saturday night across
the region while time height cross sections show the
greatest/deepest saturation builds after 06z Sunday, reaching 1.5
kft for much of the day. Very little lift seen in the low levels but
could not rule out very light drizzle across southern Indiana or far
northeast Kentucky Saturday night. Did not include in the forecast
now, as the more favorable setup looks to be north of the area. As
far as temperatures, favored the warmer guidance for lows Sunday and
adjusted highs down a few degrees given the increased likelihood for
an overcast day.
Next weather system will push into the region Monday night through
Tuesday as a stacked low pressure system lifts from the
Mid-Mississippi Valley toward the Great Lakes region. Rain chances
will spread into the region during the day Monday, lingering through
Tuesday morning before clearing out west to east as a cold front
pushes across Kentucky. Overall, high-chance POPs look good with the
highest chances Monday night associated with the increase in LLJ and
850 mb moisture transport. In its wake, the upper level pattern
becomes zonal to slightly southwesterly through Friday. Plan on
seasonable temperatures with highs in the mid/upper 40s and
overnight lows in the mid/upper 30s. Toward next weekend (Dec
20-21), another weather maker may impact the Ohio Valley as the
models are converging on the idea of an active southern stream
system.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1226 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2014
Clouds are once again the main problem in the TAFs. A patch of
clouds has been over central Indiana this evening, with ceilings
around 1-1.5 kft. HRRR and RAP bring these clouds southeast to SDF
during the pre-dawn hours and LEX around and just after sunrise as a
low MVFR ceiling. However, those models seem to be hitting the
clouds too hard, and also bring in quite a bit of fog which seems
rather unlikely. So, will give a nod to those models by bringing in
some scattered low clouds this morning, but will refrain from
including a ceiling. Also, dew point depressions seem large enough
such that we can leave fog out of the TAFs at this time, especially
at SDF. Nevertheless, this will be something to monitor over the
next several hours.
The bulk of the day today will be clear with light winds. Tonight
it appears that the low overcast currently over the Plains and
Midwest will edge eastward into central Kentucky, with ceiling
heights probably very similar to what we saw Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........13
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1236 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1236 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2014
Did a quick update to increase cloud cover as a patch of low clouds
over central Indiana slides southeastward across southern Indiana
and northern and eastern sections of central Kentucky this morning.
Kept skies in the "partly cloudy" category.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 312 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2014
After quite a few days of cloudiness, the atmosphere successfully
mixed out and we have had a good amount of sun across the region.
Despite all the sun, temperatures have not really gone anywhere with
readings generally in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Afternoon
maximum temps should occur within the next hour and then we`ll see
the diurnal downward curve as we head through late afternoon and
into this evening. Mostly clear skies are expected across the
region this evening and overnight. With the light winds and clear
skies, we should see a bit of radiational cooling take place. Stuck
close to the Euro raw 2m temps for overnight lows with readings
dropping into the low-mid 20s in the north and upper 20s across the
south.
Surface high pressure will drift over the region on Friday result in
partly to mostly sunny skies. We should see a 4-6 degree bump on
afternoon highs over this afternoon`s readings. Highs should range
from the lower 40s in the north to the mid-upper 40s across the
south. As the high heads off to the east Friday night, we should
see a return of more mid-high level cloudiness from the west.
Overnight temperatures will not be as cold with readings generally
in the upper 20s to the very low 30s.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 PM Thu Dec 11 2014
Amplified pattern aloft for the weekend, with ridging making its way
from the Plains on Saturday into the Appalachians by Sunday night.
Main challenge will be determining the extent and impact of low
clouds across Kentucky, especially on Saturday. Strong inversion
from 925-850mb does favor fairly persistent cloud cover, but
confidence is a bit limited after seeing how the clouds broke
earlier today. Will follow the previous trend of partly to mostly
cloudy skies and lean on the low end of guidance for daytime temps.
Will continue a similar theme for Sunday, as the forecast soundings
continue to favor low clouds with a stable and nearly saturated
layer around 925mb.
By Monday look for further increasing moisture as SW flow deepens
ahead of a closed upper low ejecting out of the desert Southwest.
Will take a slower approach with warm advection and precip given the
tendency of closed lows to move slower than advertised in the
models. Will limit Monday POPs to slight chance west of I-65, and
keep most if not all the action in the Monday night period. Rain
appears to be a safe bet at some point that night with a 40 kt LLJ
feeding moisture into the Ohio Valley. Will keep it a low-end likely
POP for now, until the timing becomes more certain. Lingering precip
chances on Tuesday with upper trofiness remaining over the Ohio
Valley.
As we head into the middle of the week, pattern becomes more zonal
with flat ridging over the southeast CONUS and the next upper trof
digging into the desert Southwest. This system will start to eject
out late in the week, and will bring another round of unsettled
weather to the Ohio Valley. Not yet sold on the timing so will keep
Thursday dry for now.
Temps through the period will run quite close to climo by day and
just above by night.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1226 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2014
Clouds are once again the main problem in the TAFs. A patch of
clouds has been over central Indiana this evening, with ceilings
around 1-1.5 kft. HRRR and RAP bring these clouds southeast to SDF
during the pre-dawn hours and LEX around and just after sunrise as a
low MVFR ceiling. However, those models seem to be hitting the
clouds too hard, and also bring in quite a bit of fog which seems
rather unlikely. So, will give a nod to those models by bringing in
some scattered low clouds this morning, but will refrain from
including a ceiling. Also, dew point depressions seem large enough
such that we can leave fog out of the TAFs at this time, especially
at SDF. Nevertheless, this will be something to monitor over the
next several hours.
The bulk of the day today will be clear with light winds. Tonight
it appears that the low overcast currently over the Plains and
Midwest will edge eastward into central Kentucky, with ceiling
heights probably very similar to what we saw Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........13
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1226 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 905 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2014
Clear skies and light westerly winds are in place this evening
across the Ohio Valley. Favorable radiational cooling conditions
will persist, but with meager low-level moisture and temps not
crossing over afternoon dewpoints, fog potential is quite slim.
Going forecast is well on track, but did add some detail to the
higher-resolution products to account for slightly cooler temps in
the valleys, where mins will be in the lower 20s vs. mid/upper 20s
elsewhere.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 312 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2014
After quite a few days of cloudiness, the atmosphere successfully
mixed out and we have had a good amount of sun across the region.
Despite all the sun, temperatures have not really gone anywhere with
readings generally in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Afternoon
maximum temps should occur within the next hour and then we`ll see
the diurnal downward curve as we head through late afternoon and
into this evening. Mostly clear skies are expected across the
region this evening and overnight. With the light winds and clear
skies, we should see a bit of radiational cooling take place. Stuck
close to the Euro raw 2m temps for overnight lows with readings
dropping into the low-mid 20s in the north and upper 20s across the
south.
Surface high pressure will drift over the region on Friday result in
partly to mostly sunny skies. We should see a 4-6 degree bump on
afternoon highs over this afternoon`s readings. Highs should range
from the lower 40s in the north to the mid-upper 40s across the
south. As the high heads off to the east Friday night, we should
see a return of more mid-high level cloudiness from the west.
Overnight temperatures will not be as cold with readings generally
in the upper 20s to the very low 30s.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 PM Thu Dec 11 2014
Amplified pattern aloft for the weekend, with ridging making its way
from the Plains on Saturday into the Appalachians by Sunday night.
Main challenge will be determining the extent and impact of low
clouds across Kentucky, especially on Saturday. Strong inversion
from 925-850mb does favor fairly persistent cloud cover, but
confidence is a bit limited after seeing how the clouds broke
earlier today. Will follow the previous trend of partly to mostly
cloudy skies and lean on the low end of guidance for daytime temps.
Will continue a similar theme for Sunday, as the forecast soundings
continue to favor low clouds with a stable and nearly saturated
layer around 925mb.
By Monday look for further increasing moisture as SW flow deepens
ahead of a closed upper low ejecting out of the desert Southwest.
Will take a slower approach with warm advection and precip given the
tendency of closed lows to move slower than advertised in the
models. Will limit Monday POPs to slight chance west of I-65, and
keep most if not all the action in the Monday night period. Rain
appears to be a safe bet at some point that night with a 40 kt LLJ
feeding moisture into the Ohio Valley. Will keep it a low-end likely
POP for now, until the timing becomes more certain. Lingering precip
chances on Tuesday with upper trofiness remaining over the Ohio
Valley.
As we head into the middle of the week, pattern becomes more zonal
with flat ridging over the southeast CONUS and the next upper trof
digging into the desert Southwest. This system will start to eject
out late in the week, and will bring another round of unsettled
weather to the Ohio Valley. Not yet sold on the timing so will keep
Thursday dry for now.
Temps through the period will run quite close to climo by day and
just above by night.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1226 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2014
Clouds are once again the main problem in the TAFs. A patch of
clouds has been over central Indiana this evening, with ceilings
around 1-1.5 kft. HRRR and RAP bring these clouds southeast to SDF
during the pre-dawn hours and LEX around and just after sunrise as a
low MVFR ceiling. However, those models seem to be hitting the
clouds too hard, and also bring in quite a bit of fog which seems
rather unlikely. So, will give a nod to those models by bringing in
some scattered low clouds this morning, but will refrain from
including a ceiling. Also, dew point depressions seem large enough
such that we can leave fog out of the TAFs at this time, especially
at SDF. Nevertheless, this will be something to monitor over the
next several hours.
The bulk of the day today will be clear with light winds. Tonight
it appears that the low overcast currently over the Plains and
Midwest will edge eastward into central Kentucky, with ceiling
heights probably very similar to what we saw Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
352 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SE MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN JUST DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THIS POSITIONING SUSTAINING A
NORTHWEST FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER MARKING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE
BURGEONING INVERSION LAYER ABOVE 925 MB WILL TRANSLATE INTO A STABLE
PROFILE TODAY. HOWEVER CLOUD TRENDS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING ISSUE
AS A PERIOD OF WEAK 925 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION/THERMAL TROUGHING
WORKING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE PERIPHERY
EFFECTIVELY SATURATES THE THIN 925-950 MB SUB-INVERSION LAYER.
RECENT NAM AND RAP RH FIELDS AT THIS LEVEL CORRESPOND WELL WITH THE
SOUTHWARD EXPANDING SOLID STRATUS DECK NOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO HOLD FIRM OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WELL
INTO THE DAY. THE OVERALL SETUP POINTS TOWARD SEEING A DEFINITIVE
SOUTHWEST EDGE TO THE STRATUS DECK...PROVIDING SOME UNCERTAINTY YET
IN POTENTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE FOR LOCALES TOWARD THE SOUTH. THESE
TRENDS SUPPORT TAKING A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH ON HIGHS
TODAY...READINGS MAINLY MID 30S.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO DIMINISH THE CLOUD
COVERAGE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY LOW ON
THE CLOUD TRENDS GOING FORWARD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR THE EXISTING MOIST LAYER TO HOLD FIRM BENEATH THE
INVERSION...LEAVING A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SOCKED UNDER A
PERSISTENT OVERCAST CONDITION. PLAN TO LEAN IN THIS DIRECTION AT
THIS TIME. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FIRMLY IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ALL THE
WAY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD SATURDAY
BY THE POWERFUL PACIFIC COAST STORM AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL
GUARD SE MICHIGAN FROM ANY POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
AND GUIDE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OVERALL
OPTIMISM IN THE FORECAST WILL BE TEMPERED BY AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS EACH DAY. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A GLOOMY DAY FULL OF
CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE SOFTENED BY MAX TEMPS PUSHING THE MID 40S OR
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND WEEKEND OF DECEMBER.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
CANADA. THESE CLOUDS WERE STRONGLY RESISTANT TO THE INFLUENCE OF
DIURNAL WARMING DURING THURSDAY...A STRONG SIGN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LOCKED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. EXPECT THE ENTIRE PATTERN TO
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY AND SATURDAY AND BRING OUR AREA UNDER
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE INCONSISTENT COVERAGE OFF THE LAKES WHILE THERE IS STILL A
NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BUT THEN SURGE LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ALLOW A BACKING WIND FIELD OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. A FEW
100THS QPF INDICATED ACROSS THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT UNDER DRY
850-500 MB LAYER RH...IS A GOOD INDICATOR OF DRIZZLE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS IS BACKED UP BY SREF ENSEMBLE SOUNDINGS
THAT SHOW DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME WITH A
STEEP INVERSION AND MODEST SPEED SHEAR. EXPECT ALL BUT THE MOST
SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE THUMB WILL BE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY MAKING FREEZING POTENTIAL A MINIMAL CONCERN BEFORE
READINGS REACH THE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONLY DROP BACK TO
AROUND 40 SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE POWERFUL PACIFIC COAST STORM MOVING INLAND TODAY WILL REACH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT IS IMPROVING BUT STILL
SHOWS DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ON THE EASTWARD PACE OF THE SYSTEM.
PREFER SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR THE GREAT LAKES GIVEN THE CONTINUED HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY THE FORMIDABLE RIDGE AXIS
AND NOR` EASTER COMBO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. SLOWER TIMING WILL
HELP ENSURE A SHORT WAVE TRACK TO OUR WEST AND A WARM OUTCOME FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE. OUR GOING FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED WELL WITH
ALL RAIN CENTERED ON TUESDAY IN SE MICHIGAN. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO A BLOCKING PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BUT
CHAOTIC MODEL DEPICTIONS SUGGEST THE LOCATION OF EVEN THE LARGER
SCALE UPPER AIR FEATURES ARE IN QUESTION.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR OUTER SAGINAW BAY
AROUND TO HARBOR BEACH FOR LINGERING ROUGH WATER DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. A SLOWLY DECREASING DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND AND WAVES WILL
CONTINUE OVER ALL MARINE AREAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. MILDER AIR STREAMING INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO STABLE PROFILES...AND CORRESPONDING LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1213 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
//DISCUSSION...
LOWER MVFR STRATUS TO THE NORTH HAS MADE A SUBSTANTIAL MOVE TO THE
SOUTH OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. WILL
HAVE TO ADJUST TERMINALS IN AT LEAST KMBS/KFNT FOR AS THIS AREA OF
CIGS APPEARS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH BKN-OVC DECK
WILL EXPAND AND HOW LONG CLOUDS WILL PERSIST DURING FRIDAY...BUT
WILL INCLUDE MVFR CONDITION FNT NORTH FOR THIS SET OF FORECASTS AND
BRING SCT MVFR STRATUS INTO THE REMAINING TAFS FRIDAY MORNING AS 00Z
NAM12 SUPPORTS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS
I 94...AND 925MB RH FIELD IS NOT TOO BAD AS OF 03Z THIS EVENING WITH
CURRENT POSITIONING OF CLOUDS.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 14Z FRIDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LHZ421-441.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
357 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS AMPLIFYING. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A
STRONG TROUGH MOVES ON SHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. AT THE SURFACE...WE REMAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS WE ARE SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS AND
SOME FOG. THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS WELL WEST OF THE CWA. BECAUSE
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS SO FAR WEST...I HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF
OUR FOG ADVISORY...RELEGATED TO OUR 3 FARTHEST WEST COUNTIES...AND
THIS MAY IN ITSELF BE A VERY CHEAP FOG ADVISORY...WHERE IT IS
STARTING TO LOOK MORE DOUBTFUL THAT EVEN THESE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE
DENSE FOG. WE ARE ACTUALLY GETTING LOWER VISIBILITY IN OUR
SOUTH...AS MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH OCCURS. THE CLOSEST
DENSE FOG IS IN IMPERIAL AND GOODLAND...STILL A FAIR DISTANCE AWAY.
THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS MODEL FOR THE MOST PART INTO THE
AFTERNOON. I WENT CLOSER TO THE ADJECEBC SOLUTION FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...CONSIDERING ITS STRONGER SHOWING RECENTLY...ALTHOUGH I DID
BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE THAN WHAT THIS SOLUTION ORIGINALLY
HAD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. WE SHOULD REMAIN SOCKED WITHIN STRATUS
FOR THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. MORE DRIZZLE AND FOG IS IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS REVEAL LIGHT QPF TONIGHT...EVEN THE
ECMWF. THE PROBLEM WILL BE WITH THE DEPTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. THIS IS A LIMITING FACTOR...BUT WITH SO MUCH AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS WITH LIGHT QPF...I AM INCLINED TO KEEP IN THE
DRIZZLE...BUT INTRODUCED IT A BIT LATER...IN THE MID-EVENING. FOG
COULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
STRATUS...BUT ONCE AGAIN...IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL BE WEST OF
THE CWA FOR THE MOST PART.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
PATTERN: THE FLOW WILL BE VERY COMPLEX AND AT TIMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE MULTI-DAY ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL/ERN USA WITH
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER CANADA...AND A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE E
PAC. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY WE HAVE SEEN FOR
MUCH-NEEDED MEANINGFUL PRECIP SINCE OCT 22ND. SOME OF IT COULD BE OF
THE WINTRY VARIETY.
HIGHLY RECOMMEND THE 1ST PARAGRAPH OF THE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISC
/PMDHMD/ FROM WPC. IT HAS AN EXCELLENT OVERVIEW OF MODEL TRENDS FOR
THE SYSTEM SUN-MON.
ALOFT: HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO THE ERN USA SAT-SUN AS
THE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE INTO CA HEADS E THRU THE DESERT SW
AND EJECTS NE ACROSS KS SUN-MON. A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION TUE-THU WITH ANOTHER TROF MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW.
SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE ERN USA SAT WITH GRADUAL
EASTWARD PROGRESSION SUN-MON. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS
WAY THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W WILL MOVE THRU HERE SUN WITH THE LEE-
SIDE LOW OVER CO MERGING WITH THE FRONT...MOVING ACROSS KS SUN NIGHT
AND INTO IA MON. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TUE AND SINKS INTO THE
NRN PLAINS WED-THU.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT-SUN OR VERY
CLOSE TO IT. WE CONT TO FCST RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS BOTH SAT AND SUN.
FOR SUN`S RECORDS TO BE BROKEN...TEMPS MUST STAY ABOVE THE RECORDS
THRU 1159 PM AND WE WILL BE COLD ADVECTING SUN EVE.
RECORD WARM LOWS
SAT 12/13 SUN 12/14
GRI 37 - 1896 39 - 1896
HSI 36 - 1921 36 - 1928
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE SAT`S RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN AND MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE FOR SUN`S.
SAT: NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE FROM THU OR FRI. CLOUDY WITH AM FOG/MIST.
AM NOT CONVINCED ON DRZL POTENTIAL. MOISTURE DEPTH CASTS DOUBT SO
DRZL WAS DOWNGRADED TO JUST A "CHANCE".
SUN: LATE DAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER CLOUDY START WITH AM
FOG/MIST. AN FGEN-DRIVEN COMMAHEAD BAND OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER KS
AND LIFT NORTHWARD PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HRS. BOTH THE
EC/GFS INDICATE SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES TURNING SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. SO THUNDER IS NOW IN THE FCST FOR N-CNTRL KS TO COVER
THIS POSSIBILITY.
SUN NIGHT: IT`S A RACE TO SEE HOW FAST THE COLD AIR CAN WRAP INTO
THE COMMAHEAD AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME. SUGGEST EVERYONE
INTERESTED IN THIS POTENTIAL CONT TO MONITOR LATER FCSTS AND PREPARE
FOR PLOWABLE SNOW POSSIBILITY. HIGHEST PROBABLY IS CURRENTLY N AND W
OF THE TRI-CITIES.
FOR NOW MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW EXCEPT THE SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA...
ROUGHLY S OF A LINE FROM OSBORNE KS-YORK NE.
MON: BLUSTERY AND COLDER. POSSIBLY A LITTLE LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW AS
THE LOW DEPARTS WRN IA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TUE: DRY BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS/CLOUD COVER. EC/GFS CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SUBSTANTIAL MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS UNDER
A STRONG 110KT JET.
WED: DRY AND PROBABLY A LOT OF CLOUDS.
WED NIGHT-THU: WE CURRENTLY HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW BUT IT
LOOKS DOUBTFUL BASED ON THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH SUGGESTS THIS
NEXT DESERT SW SYSTEM REMAINS SUPPRESSED S OF THE FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. CEILING IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE ON HOW LOW IT WILL GO OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS
VISIBILITY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ060-072-
082.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1129 PM MST THU DEC 11 2014
.UPDATE...
HAD TO HOIST A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS...
DEBACA...ROOSEVELT AND CURRY COUNTIES BASED MAINLY ON RAPID
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG UP AND E OF THE LOWER
PECOS VALLEY...AS WELL AS HRRR MODEL DEPICTION OF SPREAD OF SAME.
HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR 1/4 MILE OR LESS VSBY LONGEVITY ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA BASED TO SOME DEGREE ON WHAT HAPPENED AT ROW WED
NIGHT WHEN VSBY MOST OF THE LATE NIGHT AND THIS MORN ENDED UP WELL
ABOVE CRITERIA...AT LEAST AT ROW. DUE TO MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
FARTHER TO NORTH...DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR
NORTH OR WEST OF THOSE ADVISORY ZONES. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS JUST A
FEW DEGREES MUCH OF NORTH THIRD AND PORTIONS OF W CENTRAL NM WHILE
RAISING THEM A BIT IN MUCH OF ADVISORY AREA.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1105 PM MST THU DEC 11 2014...
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE W SHOULD INHIBIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR DEVELOPMENT FROM
KGUP TO KFMN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A BROAD SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG EVIDENT ON 11-3.9 MICROMETER SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF CHAVES...DE
BACA...ROOSEVELT AND CURRY COUNTIES INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
MESOSCALE MODELS AND CLOSING TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH SOME AIRPORTS DROPPING
BELOW MINIMUMS AT TIMES. THERE IS A RISK THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD
MIGRATE AS FAR N AS KTCC...BUT WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DOWN THE
CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY SHOULD KEEP THOSE AT BAY NORTH OF THE
CAPROCK. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD TAKE UNTIL MID DAY FRIDAY TO CLEAR
OUT OF THE SE...LIKE THEY DID ON THURSDAY.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MST THU DEC 11 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY FOG MAY RETURN TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST...EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONE
MORE DAY OF TRANQUIL WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FRIDAY. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS
TO AROUND 5000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
TO SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH NEW MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN SHORT-TERM CHALLENGE IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL REDEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF NW PLATEAU GIVEN HIGH CLOUDS AND CAN FOG RETURN
TO SE PLAINS WITH LEE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT S-SW WINDS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT PATCHY AREAS WILL RETURN GIVEN THAT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FOR AT LEAST SOME FOG OR FREEZING FOG TO REDEVELOP.
ONE MORE DAY OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY POUNDING CENTRAL AND NRN CALIFORNIA WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND HEAVY MTN SNOW. INITIAL UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL
WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE WASHINGTON COASTLINE
TONIGHT...WHILE THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO HEAD EWD
THROUGH SRN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. ECMWF
TRENDING TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH GFS SOLUTION WITH THE
TWO MODELS NOW IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT
THE ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC BAND WILL NOT SUFFER FROM
MOISTURE STARVATION...WHICH IS OFTEN THE CASE. THIS MORE NORTHERN
TRACK WOULD LIMIT WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL OVER CENTRAL NM BUT MODELS
CONTINUE THE WRAP AROUND/TROWAL SNOW FOR NRN NM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW
GIVEN THAT THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO PIN DOWN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF CYCLOGENESIS
YET TO TRANSPIRE ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AS EVIDENCED
BY RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ANOTHER RAPID BAROCLINIC LEAF
DEVELOPING WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
A CHANGE IN TRACK OF 100 MILES FARTHER SOUTH OR SO WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCE FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
WITH REGARD TO WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL FOR SUNDAY MORNING. -6 TO -7C
AIR AT 700MB BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE PRECIP TYPE ABOVE
5000 FEET ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING SATURDAY. ANTICIPATING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE ABQ AND SANTA FE METRO AREAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MIDWEEK STORM REMAINS ON TRACK. GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH...AND WHETHER OR NOT IT COMES
ASHORE AS A CLOSED LOW OR AN OPEN WAVE AND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR
FRONT GETS INTO THE MIX. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND QUIET PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH VARIABLE VENTILATION RANGING FROM POOR TO GOOD. A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE WEEKEND...WITH A POTENT
WINTER SYSTEM CROSSING THE STATE. A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY WILL
START OUT THE WORK WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO POOR VENTILATION ON
MONDAY. EXTENDED MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER WINTER SYSTEM AFFECTING NEW
MEXICO FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS REASONABLE HIGH MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT IMPACTING THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY.
AFTERNOON RH TO BE LOWEST OVER AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WHERE MINIMUM VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. RH
VALUES ARE HIGHEST IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SAN JUAN COUNTY WHERE
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WERE SLOW TO ERODE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NEW MEXICO AS A POTENT WINTER STORMS IMPACTS
THE WEST COAST. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. THESE CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG IN THE NORTHWEST...
HOWEVER SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EXCELLENT
RH RECOVERIES IN THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS NUDGED TO THE EAST A BIT ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES IN THE EAST AND THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THESE LOCATIONS
VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD...BUT WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
ELSEWHERE WITH POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION RESULTING.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW STEADILY DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. TEMPS DECREASE...RH
AND WINDS INCREASE. WINDS...AND ESPECIALLY RIDGETOP WINDS...WILL
STRENGTHEN STEADILY DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND
VENTILATION WILL BE MOSTLY VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT. CHANCES OF
WETTING RAIN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN. CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY AND LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE STATE. A STRONG JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
CLOSE LOW LOOKS TO CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS AND VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION.
WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ON MONDAY OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SHIFTS
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODEST
TEMPERATURE INCREASES AND LIGHT WINDS. VENTILATION TANKS AND WILL BE
POOR AREAWIDE ON MONDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THAT ANOTHER WINTER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE STATE MAINLY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAIN AND HIGHER TERRAIN
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ535>538.
&&
$$
43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
355 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AND WEAKEN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL STILL PRODUCE A LITTLE VERY LIGHT
SNOW OR EVEN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS WILL FINALLY END BY
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER
LAKES REGION WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TO ABOVE AVERAGE ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME VERY WEAK
RETURNS ACROSS WESTERN NY INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES FALLING IN THE FORM
OF VERY FINE GRAINS SOMETIMES CALLED SNIZZLE. A MORE PERSISTENT AREA
OF RETURNS IS STILL FOUND ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND WESTERN CATTARAUGUS
COUNTY IN WHAT REMAINS OF THE OLD DEFORMATION AXIS FROM YESTERDAY.
THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY DISPATCH AND STATE DOT REPORTS INDICATE THAT
SOME OF THIS IS FALLING AS FREEZING DRIZZLE. BUFKIT POINT SOUNDINGS
BEAR THIS OUT WITH MOISTURE BECOMING TOO SHALLOW AND WARM TO ALLOW
FOR ICE NUCLEI IN THE CLOUD LAYER. LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE NAM AND HRRR SUGGEST THIS AREA OF PERSISTENT LIGHT
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE...AND WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH
MID MORNING TO COVER THE LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POTENTIAL
FOR SLICK SPOTS DURING THE MORNING DRIVE ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXPECT A MAINLY DRY MORNING WITH
JUST A FEW VERY LIGHT FLURRIES. A FEW PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS WELL...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN TOO LIGHT
AND ISOLATED TO HAVE ANY MEANINGFUL IMPACT.
THE VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING
ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY BEING STRIPPED AWAY FROM WEST TO
EAST. THE REMAINING WEAK DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER WILL BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE VERY LIGHT
SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY END.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ONE LAST SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTH AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW TODAY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM
MIDDAY THOUGH THE AFTERNOON. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT ANY LAKE EFFECT SOUTHEAST OF EITHER LAKE EXCEPT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES OF NO CONSEQUENCE.
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY. MOISTURE WILL BECOME QUITE SHALLOW AGAIN...SO THERE MAY BE
SOME LIMITED CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO MIX IN AS WELL.
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL INVERSION. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS STILL
UPSTREAM...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE PATTERN RECOGNITION OF WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW IN DECEMBER DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY CLEARING
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS DOMINATING IN MOST AREAS.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO REACH THE LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL PREVENT MUCH
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH MID 20S IN MOST AREAS AND UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS AFFECTED THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL FINALLY BE EXITING THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...WE MAY STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THANKS TO PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST
ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT...ITSELF THE
PRODUCT OF INCREASING RIDGING ALOFT. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE DRYING
ALOFT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
LINGER...HOWEVER SHOULD ANY OCCUR THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE FOUND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE THE MOISTURE-BEARING FETCH WILL BE
GREATEST. WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE SHALLOW NATURE OF
THE MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RENDER THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH LAYER VERY DRY...SUGGESTING P-TYPE WILL BE MAINLY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES WILL RUNNING IN THE 20S.
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION.
NONETHELESS...WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION AS GENERAL FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S...WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY...CLOSER TO THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH
FLOW IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING STUBBORNLY OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST...CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL IN SPITE OF WARMING ALOFT...PARTICULARLY SHOULD
EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS...STILL TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION...REMAIN IN
PLACE AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S SUNDAY WITH LOW TO MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE A DRY START TO THE WEEK MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. THE
PERSISTENT SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
AND AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RAIN-SNOW LINE AND WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF BOTH TYPES GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES INHERENT THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN NEAR AVERAGE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS WE SHOULD FINALLY REALIZE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM TO CHASE AWAY THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR AND LOW CLOUDS.
LOOKING LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW POISED TO DROP DOWN OUT OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY USHER IN A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK...THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
AFFECTING KJHW...KIAG AND KBUF WITH IFR VSBYS AND OCCASIONALLY
IFR CEILINGS. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE
VISIBILITY AS SNOW BECOMES MORE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT DON`T EXPECT
AN IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAGNANT OCCLUDED
SYSTEM.
A LACK OF SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN A REGION OF
SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT IS SHIFTING INLAND AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT KART.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING WINDS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
331 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY PULLING EAST AND LOSING INFLUENCE ON DAILY
WEATHER CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS DRIER THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO READINGS OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS...HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY WINTER NORMS.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST FRIDAY...BROKEN RECORD FORECAST CONTINUES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH STATIONARY OCCLUSION REMAINING ATOP OR JUST EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES DROPPING SOUTHWARD WILL COMBINE TO KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LESS OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. ALSO INTRODUCED THE CHANCE FOR SOME INTERMITTENT -FZDZ
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE RAP SOUNDING PROFILES
SUGGEST AN UNSATURATED SNOW GROWTH ZONE THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE UPPER PATTERN...TEMPERATURES ALSO GOING
NOWHERE AND NEARLY IDENTICAL TO READINGS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S DURING THE DAY AND SETTLING
BACK INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST FRIDAY...BY SATURDAY MODEL SUITE SHOWING GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT OUR PESKY UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL
EASTWARD SUCH THAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND OVERALL INFLUENCE WILL WANE
OVER TIME. STILL COULD SEE SOME LINGERING NRN MTN FLURRY/SHSN
ACTIVITY HERE AND THERE...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BY AND LARGE BE
LESS THAN TODAY WITH BROADER VALLEYS MAINLY DRY. LIGHT WINDS AND
LACK OF THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES MEAN NO AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES...YOU GUESSED IT...NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO
MAKE INROADS EAST AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY
OFFSHORE. A SOMEWHAT TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS
OFFERED ON DEGREE OF COOLING. POTENTIAL BUST WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN POSSIBLE CLEARING AND FRESH SNOW COVER...SO WILL
LEAN CONSERVATIVELY TOWARD A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE SHOWING VARIABLE
CLOUDS THINNING ONLY SLOWLY AND LOW TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COLDER
THAN TONIGHT...UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S OR SO.
ON SUNDAY DEEP LEVEL RIDGING MAKES FURTHER PROGRESS INTO THE REGION
WITH CONTINUED DRYING THROUGH THE PBL AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN
AS UPPER FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC/SUBSIDENT. 850 MB RESPOND AND
RANGE FROM 0C TO +5C EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER
TO ONLY 1500 FEET OR SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN WHAT
THOSE READINGS WOULD NORMALLY INDICATE WITH MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT
ONLY IN THE 30S. STILL QUITE A NICE DAY THOUGH WITH THE SUNSHINE
BEING WELCOME AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF HIDING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST FRIDAY...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS WEAKLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA. THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS THAT SNOWS SHOWERS WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THE MODELS DIVULGE WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE ECMWF BRINGING A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM THROUGH. THE ECMWF KEEPS SHOWERS IN THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY WHEREAS THE GFS IS QUICKER TO DRY OUT. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER BACK INTO THE AREA WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
LITTLE TO NO ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN WITH FRONT SO AT THIS POINT WE
DONT EXPECT ANY SURGES OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM SITE TO SITE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH BOUTS
OF IFR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AT KMPV. MVFR
CONDITIONS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AT KRUT. IFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AT KMSS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILING WILL OCCUR AT KSLK. AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO JUST SLOWLY MEANDER AROUND THERE WILL BE
SOME SCATTED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER MAINLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. AFTER 18Z THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED SURGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHERN VT SITES. FOR KMSS
THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE CONTINUES TO BE UNSATURATED SO I CARRIED FZDZ
THROUGH 09Z AS THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT MISTY FREEZING PRECIP.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z FRIDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SCATTERED...BUT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
12Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
06Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED.
12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR AND IFR IN SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
403 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE...SLICK ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE DUE TO FROST FORMATION...WIDESPREAD
FOG ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ALTHOUGH NOT DENSE...THE TIMING
OF THE FOG/STRATUS ERODING TODAY AND ITS EFFECT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...NEAR RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED...VERY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS TRANQUIL IN TERMS OF
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS OR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE FROST AND
RESULTANT SLIPPERY ROADS AND SIDEWALKS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP IS BEING OVERSHADOWED BY SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS/STRATUS
CLOUDS ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR MILES
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR CIG AND VSBY
FORECAST SHOW THIS AREA MAINLY REMAINING IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN SHRINKING/ERODING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN
THIS OCCURS...AND CURRENT TIMING OF PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE 925MB TEMPS NEARLY THE SAME TODAY AS
THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH VERY SHALLOW MIXING AT
BEST. 24HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS AT DICKINSON AND HETTINGER THIS
MORNING ARE NEARLY THE SAME OR A BIT COOLER THAN AT THE SAME TIME
YESTERDAY. WILL TREND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE
THURSDAY. DICKINSON REMAINS ON TRACK TO JUST BREAK ITS RECORD OF
54F SET BACK IN 1924...AS TODAYS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH 55F.
ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE WARMER BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS FOG MAY MAKE A RETURN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
MODELS BRING AN H500 TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US SATURDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY BY TUESDAY AND THEN EVENTUALLY
FORM A REX BLOCK BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. DURING THIS PROCESS A COLD
FRONT WILL INITIALLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT BRINGING SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY. COOLER AIR
WILL FLOW THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY SETTING UP A
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ONE VERSION...THE CANADIAN GEM...SETS UP THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION THEN FORMS ACROSS THIS AREA AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW SWINGS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE GEM IS ALSO
SLOWER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF AND APPEARS TO BE THE PREFERRED
TREND. WILL SPREAD A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
ON MONDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
THE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT REX BLOCK RESULTS IN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
REGION WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY KEEP MORE
CLOUDS BUT LITTLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
IFR CIGS AT KJMS ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 18Z. CIGS WILL MOST LIKELY RETURN TO MVFR/LOW VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON BUT MAY ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR AFTER
00Z SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FOG AT KBIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS BUT CIGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR. VFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1218 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS
AND WIDESPREAD FOGGY CONTINUING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH
SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. THE STRATUS AT TIMES IS SHOWING
SOME BREAKS WITH VISIBILITIES OF TWO MILES OR GREATER FROM JAMESTOWN
TO OAKES. THE ADVANCING SHIELD OF CLOUDS SEEMS TO BE MITIGATING
ANY DENSE FOG FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING OR SPREADING...AND THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE CASE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DESPITE STRATUS/WIDESPREAD FOG CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WILL CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WATCH FOR ANY
REDEVELOPMENT OF VISIBILITIES APPROACHING A QUARTER OF A MILE OR
LESS TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
OF FOG AND STRATUS EVOLUTION. THROUGH 03 UTC...THE FOG AND STRATUS
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WAS ERODING. HOWEVER...THIS TREND
WAS REVERSING OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH SOME FOG AND STRATUS ALSO
FORMING IN THE BISMARCK AND MANDAN AREA WITH A SMALL CLEARING IN
THE CIRRUS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS.
THE 02 UTC HRRR DOES SHOW THE DECREASE IN FOG THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...ONLY TO BUILD BACK IN LATER TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
DID INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S GIVEN
CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ON
TRACK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION THROUGH THE
EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 442 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
GIVEN CURRENT VISIBILITIES OF AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE FROM CARRINGTON THROUGH JAMESTOWN...ASHLEY AND
ELLENDALE...AND THE 21 UTC HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST WHICH KEEPS
DENSE FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY AS FOG DROPLETS
FREEZE ON ROADWAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS.
LARGE DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE VERY MILD SOUTHWEST AND THE
COOL EAST.
CURRENTLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WESTERN MONTANA WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S. A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE EAST OF TROUGH IS SLOWING OUR WARM-UP. BUT
EVEN WITH THE SLOW WARM-UP AND THE STRATUS IN THE FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WE ARE STILL AHEAD OF OUR 2 PM
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. THUS NOT A BAD DAY OVERALL.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FOG AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA
TONIGHT. SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...EVEN A LITTLE WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT MOST AREAS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER
EASTWARD BY FRIDAY...OUR SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO
SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING FOR BETTER DAYTIME MIXING...AND REALIZING
OUR FORECAST HIGHS. STILL OPTIMISTIC WITH UPPER 50S AND MAYBE SOME
60S SOUTHWEST...WITH HOPEFULLY SOME LOWER 40S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
ONE MORE MILD DAY SATURDAY BEFORE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. THIS
LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LARGELY IMPACTED BY THE NORTHERN
STREAM SEGMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING CAA INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND VERY LIMITED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
JUST SPOTTY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AFTERWARDS MONDAY-
THURSDAY WITH A VERY DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CIGS THROUGH 19Z FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING TO
MVFR. THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS TO SCT CIGS THROUGH
10Z FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGH 19Z
FRIDAY. KBIS WILL ALSO FLUCTUATE WITH VCFG BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST
ABOVE MVFR. REST OF THE TERMINALS WITH HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
349 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA HAS BEEN SLOWLY
EXPANDING THIS MORNING WITH SOME SPOTTY PATCHES ALSO DEVELOPING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND LATEST RAP THAT THIS
MAY CONTINUE TO FILL IN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT THROUGH DAYBREAK AS IT
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...WILL HEDGE A BIT
AND ALLOW FOR SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST TODAY. THE LATEST RAP IS INDICATING THAT SOME OF THE
STRATUS CURRENTLY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN COULD WORK ITS
WAY DOWN INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...THINK THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS WILL SLOW ONCE
THE SUN COMES UP SO WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SUN AND AIRMASS
MODIFICATION...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY A BIT WARMER THAN THURSDAY. WILL
TREND TEMPS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH TO THE MID 40S FAR SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE IT SLOWLY FLATTENS OUT. THE MODELS ARE
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE ADVECTING SOME HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS MOISTURE IS
FAIRLY SHALLOW THOUGH...GENERALLY AOB 900 MB. AS IS TYPICAL..THE
NAM IS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE GFS WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SO SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAST THE CLOUDS WILL WORK
THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW...THE CLOUDS ADVANCING EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS ARE STILL TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
GIVEN ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION...WOULD THINK THESE CLOUDS MAY
TAKE A WHILE TO REACH OUR FA. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE ALSO
SOME INDICATIONS THAT STRATUS WILL SAG DOWN FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE CLOUD
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL HANDLE IT WITH A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE AN AFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES AND WE ARE LIKELY TOO COLD TONIGHT/WARM ON SATURDAY
IF A SOLID DECK MOVES IN FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL SLOWLY BUMP
UP TO CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS EVEN THE GFS IS
PRETTY BULLISH ON THE LOW CLOUDS BY THEN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY QPF. WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST THOUGH AS THE DEPTH OF THE
SATURATED LAYER BELOW 2000 FEET REMAINS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND WE SEEM
TO BE LACKING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL FORCING/VERTICAL
MOTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE NEW WEEK BEGINS...ATTENTION WILL FOCUS ON THE TROUGH
INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. AS A JET
STREAK AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES ASHORE...EVENTUALLY A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
LOW MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS. HOWEVER...THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SOURCE OF INCONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS...WHICH IS NOT ESPECIALLY SURPRISING GIVEN THE VARIABLES
GOING INTO ITS DEVELOPMENT. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE FORECAST IS THAT
12Z RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER TIMING AND PLACEMENT
AGREEMENT...WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERNS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW...AND HOW QUICKLY IT DEGENERATES INTO AN OPEN WAVE. A
CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND IN THE MODELS HAS ENDED UP WITH THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEARING TO IMPACT THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
GREATEST MOISTURE AND FORCING. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN SIMILAR
CATEGORIES (20-40 PERCENT) BUT FOCUSED A LITTLE GREATER ON THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...ADVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ONCE THE LOW PASSES...COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE WILL PROVIDE FOR A RETURN TO COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS COLD
ADVECTION...POSSIBLY GIVEN THE SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE NORTH...DOES NOT
APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS. THUS...AFTER A
FEW DAYS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ONLY APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER IL/KY/TN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY ESEWD
ACRS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND GENERALLY
OUT OF THE W AROUND 5 TO 12 KNOTS. LO LVL MOISTURE BAND EXTENDS
FROM CNTRL IN EWD ACRS THE FCST AREA AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THIS MORNING LASTING TILL AROUND 15Z. AT THIS
TIME CONDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY MOSTLY MVFR. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE UNDERSTOOD THAT IFR VSBYS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN THE DAY/ILN AREA AND THAT STATUS COULD
AFFECT KCVG/KLUK AND KCMH/KLCK. STLT DEPICTS STATUS FROM EARLIER IN
THE DAY OVER CNTRL IN DRIFTING ESE AT SLOWLY DISSIPATING. THUS HAVE
ADDED SOME SCT010 INTO THE KCVG FCST. WILL UPDATE IN A FEW HRS AT
09Z. AT PRESENT TIME SOME STATUS WAS DEVELOPING IN W CNTRL OH IN
THE VCNTY OF KEDJ. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
SOME CI CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND UPPER RIDGE AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND. MODELS DO SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT
OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH
COULD PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS BUT WILL HOLD OFF PUTTING INTO
THE FCST UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
105 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRATUS DECK W OF KDAY IS BEING PROGGED BY HRRR TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
AND AIM TOWARDS CINCY AND TRI-STATE REGION. THE DECK IS FAIRLY
NARROW AND SHOWS SIGNS OF EROSION ON ITS EDGES BUT WILL PROBABLY
HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS IT MAKES A SOUTHEASTERLY TURN.
SHAVED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST A DEGREE OR SO BUT KEPT
WESTERN CWA SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST. IF THE SC DECK INCREASES IN
AREA FOR SOME REASON THEN MIN TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
UPWARD IN SW CWA. REST OF FCST EXPERIENCED COSMETIC CHANGES IN
GENERAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT QUASI STATIONARY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT SETTLES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. AGAIN...CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL REVOLVE
AROUND POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER AND HOW THAT WILL AFFECT HIGHS AND
LOWS. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS HANDLING THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NEAR TERM...IT THEN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
USE THE MODELS IN THEIR DEPICTION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BELIEVE THE MOISTURE IS OVERDONE BY
THE NAM AND UNDERDONE BY THE GFS...WHICH ARE TYPICAL BIASES. THIS
MAKES IT HARD TO TIME THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND
THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE THAT MAY RESULT. A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH HAS
BEEN IMPLEMENTED WHICH BASICALLY SLOWLY INCREASES LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY...MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE CLOUDS COOLER TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES...
STAYING AWAY FROM THE NAM COOLER VALUES DUE TO ITS DEPICTION OF
MORE CLOUDS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE PER THE MODELS IS SHALLOW AND
BELOW 850 MB. MODEL QPF BEGINS TO GENERATE LIGHT QPF AS WE HEAD
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE QPF
DEPICTION HAS A DRIZZLE LOOK TO IT. AM NOT BUYING INTO THE LIGHT
QPF...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IS MAINLY 1 KM IN
DEPTH OR LESS. THIS VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE DOES NOT SEEM CONDUCIVE
FOR DRIZZLE. TYPICALLY...A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 1.5 AND
2.0 KM IS NEEDED TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING OR SOME OTHER LIFTING MECHANISM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD ON SUNDAY. A WELL-DEFINED
TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH SETUP WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO. AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND MOVING ONLY VERY SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA...THE MOTION OF THE LARGE RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BE VERY SLOW. ABOVE 700MB...THE AIR MASS WITHIN THE
RIDGE WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO THE GROUND...THIS
MAY NOT BE THE CASE. ALTHOUGH ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND WELL
NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AT HIGHER LEVELS...THE 925MB HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST. MOISTURE AT THIS
LEVEL IS FORECAST TO FLOW NORTH IN A CLOCKWISE MANNER AROUND THIS
RIDGING...EVENTUALLY BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...MODELS HAVE
OCCASIONALLY PRODUCED SOME LIGHT PATCHES OF QPF OUTPUT DURING THIS
PERIOD...AND THAT INDICATION BECAME SLIGHTLY MORE PROMINENT WITH THE
12Z RUNS TODAY. DESPITE THIS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST. WITH LITTLE TO NO LOW-LEVEL FORCING...AND ONLY A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...GETTING
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP WILL BE DIFFICULT. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP CONDITIONS MORE CLOUDY THAN
SUNNY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM GOING INTO BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE LOW-LEVEL PATTERN IS A TYPICAL ONE FOR
WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AS THE NEW WEEK BEGINS...ATTENTION WILL FOCUS ON THE TROUGH
INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. AS A JET STREAK
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES ASHORE...EVENTUALLY A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW MOVING
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS. HOWEVER...THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS A SOURCE OF INCONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS...WHICH IS
NOT ESPECIALLY SURPRISING GIVEN THE VARIABLES GOING INTO ITS
DEVELOPMENT. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE FORECAST IS THAT 12Z RUNS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER TIMING AND PLACEMENT AGREEMENT...WITH THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...AND HOW QUICKLY IT
DEGENERATES INTO AN OPEN WAVE. A CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND IN THE
MODELS HAS ENDED UP WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEARING TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND FORCING. POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN SIMILAR CATEGORIES (20-40 PERCENT) BUT FOCUSED A LITTLE
GREATER ON THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...ADVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ONCE THE LOW PASSES...COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE WILL PROVIDE FOR A RETURN TO COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS COLD
ADVECTION...POSSIBLY GIVEN THE SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE NORTH...DOES NOT
APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS. THUS...AFTER A
FEW DAYS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ONLY APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER IL/KY/TN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY ESEWD
ACRS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND GENERALLY
OUT OF THE W AROUND 5 TO 12 KNOTS. LO LVL MOISTURE BAND EXTENDS
FROM CNTRL IN EWD ACRS THE FCST AREA AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THIS MORNING LASTING TILL AROUND 15Z. AT THIS
TIME CONDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY MOSTLY MVFR. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE UNDERSTOOD THAT IFR VSBYS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN THE DAY/ILN AREA AND THAT STATUS COULD
AFFECT KCVG/KLUK AND KCMH/KLCK. STLT DEPICTS STATUS FROM EARLIER IN
THE DAY OVER CNTRL IN DRIFTING ESE AT SLOWLY DISSIPATING. THUS HAVE
ADDED SOME SCT010 INTO THE KCVG FCST. WILL UPDATE IN A FEW HRS AT
09Z. AT PRESENT TIME SOME STATUS WAS DEVELOPING IN W CNTRL OH IN
THE VCNTY OF KEDJ. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
SOME CI CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND UPPER RIDGE AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND. MODELS DO SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT
OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH
COULD PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS BUT WILL HOLD OFF PUTTING INTO
THE FCST UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
339 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WERE AGAIN VISITING THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER IN
THE REGION. DENSE FOG WAS NOTED AT KGNC...KHOB AND KCVN...THOUGH AS
OF 09Z ONLY LIGHT FOG /VISIBILITIES AROUND 4 SM/ WAS PRESENT AT KLBB
AND KPVW. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP DO CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND THIS SEEMS VALID GIVEN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WITHIN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT
CLOUD COVER AND FOG COVERAGE IS NOT AS EXTENSIVE IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...THOUGH KCDS HAS BEEN OCCASIONALLY REPORTING DENSE FOG.
GIVEN THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW
/ON THE CAPROCK THROUGH 10 AM/...BUT WILL REASSESS AROUND 6 AM AND
ADJUST IF NEEDED. THE FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT/THIN BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH SUN RETURNING TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA BY
MID-AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY...THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE EXACTLY HOW WARM EACH LOCATION GETS...BUT
MOST SPOTS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
A RELATIVELY NARROW BUT HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH OKLAHOMA TODAY AND THEN
INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WEST TEXAS WEATHER THOUGH
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE LONG NIGHTS
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT. THE MOIST CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD FOR MID-DECEMBER...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S...THOUGH THE NORTHWEST ZONES COULD DIP IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...
...A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO WEST
TEXAS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK OR SO...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DOUSING MUCH OF CALIFORNIA
WILL BE APPROACHING WEST TEXAS BY LATE SATURDAY. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE FROM NRN NM EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO A RAGGED SQUALL-LINE AS
AN INBOUND PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT FOCUSES THE FORCING. WE HAVE
INCREASED AND EXPANDED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. STRONG WIND SHEAR
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND
SOME HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE ACTIVITY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT
OF PRECIP THOUGH...AS THE DRY SLOT SWIFTLY WORKS IN ACROSS WEST
TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY
AFTERNOON AND IT APPEARS THAT ANY WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY BEHIND THE PACIFIC-
FRONT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL BE
MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS
LATE WEDNESDAY. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL SURROUNDS THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM....BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE
A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RAIN COULD MATERIALIZE CENTERED ON
THURSDAY...AND WE/VE ADDED CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR
MOST OF THE FA. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY
THREATEN THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 68 38 67 41 56 / 0 0 0 50 20
TULIA 66 44 69 47 58 / 0 0 0 60 30
PLAINVIEW 65 45 68 48 59 / 0 0 0 50 30
LEVELLAND 67 43 69 47 59 / 0 0 0 50 20
LUBBOCK 66 47 68 50 61 / 0 0 0 50 20
DENVER CITY 67 44 68 45 59 / 0 0 0 40 20
BROWNFIELD 67 45 69 48 61 / 0 0 0 40 20
CHILDRESS 66 49 67 53 66 / 0 10 10 40 70
SPUR 66 49 68 52 65 / 0 0 10 30 40
ASPERMONT 67 51 69 54 68 / 10 0 10 30 50
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041.
&&
$$
23/33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
304 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE 12.06Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR
KRST SHOWS WINDS OF ABOUT 10 KNOTS JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE
THE GROUND WITH A TREND OF THESE INCREASING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BREAK THE FOG UP...WHICH HAS
BEEN THE TREND IN THE VISIBILITY OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WHERE
IT HAS IMPROVED TO A MILE AND HALF OR MORE AT ALL THE REPORTING
STATIONS IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...PLAN
TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY.
AFTER THAT...THE CONCERN THEN BECOMES WHEN WILL PRECIPITATION
START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
A LOT OF DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BUT HAVING A HARD TIME
SEEING THE FORCING FOR THIS DRIZZLE. THE RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BE
VERY SLOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA...WHICH ONLY ALLOWS FOR WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH ONLY AROUND 1C/12 HR OR LESS OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BE IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER. THIS REALLY IS
NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH OMEGA AND IN FACT...BOTH THE 12.00Z NAM
AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY SHOW SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DOES TRY TO SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UP
GLIDE ON THE 290K SURFACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. BASED ON
THIS...WILL REMOVE THE DRIZZLE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AND LET IT GO AFTER THAT.
THE OTHER CONCERN WITH SUNDAY IS WITH TEMPERATURES. THE 11.12Z
NAEFS IS SHOWING AN AREA OF 850 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 1 AND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE AREA. SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
PERIOD SHOW THE INVERSION HOLDING PRETTY TIGHT...SO MOST OF THIS
WARM AIR WILL REMAIN TRAPPED ALOFT. THE 12.00Z ECMWF AND GEM MIXED
DOWN THE MOST WARM AIR AND PRODUCE LOWER 50S WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE THE GFS HOLDS IT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S. WILL TRY TO HIT THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD HERE WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
THE FORCING FOR WIDESPREADY PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION STARTS TO
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD THEN LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND CUTTING UNDER THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER OCCURRING FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER DURING THE SAME
TIME PERIOD. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO COME IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ENERGY AND TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA WITH THE GFS
SHOWING THIS TO PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS BUT COULD
BE RATHER STRONG. WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN FORCING...STARTED
INCREASING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE 50
TO 60 PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
WILL THEN HAVE 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
MONDAY AND IF PRESENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...EXPECT THAT THESE
WILL HAVE TO GO HIGHER WITH LATER FORECASTS. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD PRIMARILY BE RAIN THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE COLD AIR STARTS TO COME IN ONCE THE SURFACE LOW
PASSES FOR A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD POSSIBLY START TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS PRETTY LOW BY THEN. THE
ECMWF...GFS AND 12.00Z GEM ALL SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT COMES DOWN FROM CANADA WHICH
RAISES CONSIDERABLE DOUBT ON ANY ONE SOLUTION FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK. SO FOR NOW...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH JUST A
VERY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST AT KLSE/KRST THROUGH 13.06Z. EXPECT
IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS AT KLSE AND LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AT KRST.
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHEAST MN AS NEAR SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE...BUT FORECAST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS VISIBILITY MAY
DROP BELOW 1SM AT KRST AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WILL DELAY 1/2SM
UNTIL 12.11Z... GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO 4SM BY 12.16Z. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NWS KEY WEST FL
1000 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LATEST IR IMAGERY
OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS AS OF 900
AM DEPICT A SLOWLY FILLING AND ELONGATING MIDDLE AND UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER WESTERN MAINE. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
EMBEDDED WITHIN STAGNANT TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH LONGWAVE PATTERN FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT A NEARLY ZONAL/WEAKLY
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL JET WITH AN AVERAGE 75 TO 100 KNOT
WESTERLIES AT 250 MB IS ROARING ACROSS OLD MEXICO...THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AS WELL AS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AS OF 900 AM DETAILS A NEAR 1030 MB SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BUT
LOCALLY...NEAR 1025 MB RIDGING IS STILL HOLDING TO THE IMMEDIATE
NORTH OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IS RESULTING IN GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES RIGHT AT THE SURFACE. BUT THE 12Z SOUNDING
ILLUSTRATED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RIGHT OFF OF THE
SURFACE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND FRESHENING TO THE 854 MB BASE OF A
FAIRLY STRONG 6 DEGREE INVERSION UP TO 813 MB. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THIS SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER SUPPORTING STRATOCUMULUS...THE COLUMN
WAS MODERATELY DRY WITH COLUMNAR PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) AOA TWO
THIRDS OF AN INCH OR .67 INCHES.
.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OWING TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE NORTHEAST
BETWEEN 9 AND 14 KNOTS...EXCEPT 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN FLORIDA BAY AND 13
KNOTS AT SMITH SHOAL...HOWEVER C-MANS ARE NOW SHOWING INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLIES BETWEEN 16 AND 23 KNOTS ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
STRAITS FROM SAND KEY OUT TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
.FORECAST...REST OF TODAY...IT NOW APPEARS THE 1025 MB RIDGING TO
OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA MAY BE
CONSOLIDATING WITH THIS STRONGER 1030 MB RIDGING OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHICH IS RESULTING IN A BETTER MSLP GRADIENT
BETWEEN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE LOWER KEYS AND WESTERN WATERS.
THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE LATEST MSAS PRESSURE ANALYSIS.
THEREFORE GIVEN THE PRESSURE AND DENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MAINLAND AND THE WESTERN KEYS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS...WE ARE SEEING STRONGER WINDS RESULTING FROM DENSITY
DIFFERENCES...I.E COLD AIR DRAINAGE FLOW OFF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S...AND TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN KEYS ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S. SO EXPECT THIS SURGE TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE AGAIN BY MID
AFTERNOON. AN UPDATE TO THE PUBLIC ZONES WILL SPLIT OFF THE LOWER
KEYS FOR HIGHER WINDS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WINDS ARE ALSO MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND
ARE HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL
WATERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE 10 CLOCK HOUR AND IF WINDS CONTINUE
AT THESE MAGNITUDES AN UPDATE MAY BE PERFORMED TO SPLIT OFF THE
WESTERN WATERS AND INTRODUCE A EXERCISE CAUTIONARY STATEMENT OR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE LOCAL HRRR DOES SHOW A
SURGE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS OF LESS
MAGNITUDE THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FT...ESPECIALLY
EARLY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT EYW...AND SOMEWHAT LESS AT MTH.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS........................................FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS..........................................11
UPPER AIR/ACQUISITION......................................PARKE
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1000 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
After a period of clear skies last night, clouds have spread back
across central Illinois this morning. The 12z KILX upper air
sounding showed a 2000-foot saturated layer below 850mb. This
layer is considerably thicker than just 24 hours ago, so potential
for clearing today is slim at best. 12z NAM forecast soundings
show moisture remaining trapped beneath the strong inversion
throughout the day, while HRRR indicates overcast conditions as
well. Based on current satellite imagery that shows breaks in the
overcast south of St. Louis and across far southern Illinois, will
have to monitor the SE KILX CWA for potential breaks this
afternoon. Otherwise it will be a cloudy day across the area. Due
to the clouds and only minimal WAA beneath the surface ridge axis,
have lowered afternoon highs into the middle to upper 30s. Warmest
readings in the lower 40s will be found across the SW CWA around
Jacksonville where WAA will be strongest.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
Satellite imagery and surface observations show a region of low
overcast skies spreading eastward across central IL early this
morning as warm and moist southwesterly flow moves into the area
ahead of the strong low moving through the Southwest. This will
allow high temperatures to increase several degrees today compared
with Thursday, but the extensive cloud cover may hold them down a
few degrees from previous forecast expectations. Expecting
temperatures around 40 degrees most locations. Surface winds will
remain light from the SW today as pressure gradients remain weak in
the vicinity of high pressure centered over the Ohio River Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
Clouds remain a bit of a problem...but most models have them
expanding back over Central Illinois later this evening. Winds
becoming more southerly on the back side of this ridge over the
course of the day, resulting in the slow warm up of the region for
the weekend. Overnight lows only dropping into the 30s...and
Saturday warmer in the upper 40s/near 50. Soundings start to look
more cloudy throughout the weekend, underneath the high pressure in
advance of the approaching storm system. However, forecast
soundings slowly lose the strength of the inversion into Sunday
afternoon, and may need to consider some breaks in the clouds.
Whether from sunshine or aggressive sfc WAA, temps on Sunday
expected to climb into the 50s.
Precip chances return late in the weekend...Sunday night...and into
the first of the work week. Models beginning to resemble one
another with the progression of the upper trof and the surface
system overall, although the NAM is about 6 hrs behind the GFS and
ECMWF. In addition, SuperBlend holding on to pops way too long into
Tuesday. Would pull that entirely but lack of continuity with this
systems forecast and the NAM running slower on approach...will leave
the pops in for Tuesday but keep them low. Tuesday night was
removed altogether. Best chances for rain remain Monday and Monday
night, now easily in the likely category. Forecast confidence
completely disintegrates Wednesday as the pattern shift after
Mondays system lacks any kind of similarity btwn the longer range
models. GFS is showing some ridging at h5 with the low exiting to
the east... and the ECMWF is almost northwesterly flow, with another
impulse following into the trof of the prev system. Keeping pops
very low for Wed night-Thur night until some consensus is reached.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
MVFR conditions will be predominant across central and southeast
Illinois for the next 24 hours. An area of MVFR with locally IFR
ceilings will spread eastward to the IL/IN border shortly after
12Z, and remain over the area for the next few days. In addition,
MVFR visibilities will be common until around 16Z. By late
afternoon, warming temperatures may result in some breaks in the
overcast ceilings, but these should end shortly after sunset.
Winds generally W-SW 6 Kts or less for the next 24 hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1032 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THEN...THERE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD
MIX IN TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN DROP TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM. AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
THICK STRATUS DECK MAKING STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF MID MORNING. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 20S AS
OF 1430Z.
FOR THOSE WHO HAVE ENJOYED THE SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND SO FAR THIS
MORNING...MIGHT WANT TO GET OUT AND SOAK IT UP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE ITS GONE. OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR IN
HANDLING THE EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD DECK SO FAR THIS MORNING.
CURRENT RAP SEEMS TO BE DOING FAR AND AWAY THE BEST JOB ON THE
STRATUS AND HAVE UTILIZED IT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW YET STOUT INVERSION DEVELOPING AS THE
CLOUDS ARRIVE WITH RAP 950MB RH PROGS IN EXCESS OF 90% OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE SUBSTANTIALLY AS A
RESULT WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON.
ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY. WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LOW STRATUS...SEE LITTLE CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM
AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. TOOK A BLEND OF THE RAP RAW SURFACE
TEMPS AND THE LAMP DATA WHICH RESULTED IN DROPPING HIGHS NEARLY 5
DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. AND THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. ONE OTHER
NOTE...HAVE SEEN POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND AS CLOSE AS KANKAKEE THIS MORNING. BELIEVE
THERE IS TOO MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TO SUPPORT
ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE LATER TODAY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST THU DEC 11 2014
SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MODELS ALSO ALL SUGGEST THAT
NEGATIVELY TILTED PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOO FAR AWAY TO WARRANT POPS
LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
925 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN DURING
THE DAY TO A POINT. MOS DOES NOT SEEM TO INCLUDE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER...1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES TO 1340 METERS ON SUNDAY
SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE 50S DESPITE THE CLOUD
OVER...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. MEANWHILE...AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S LOOK GOOD FOR SATURDAY. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID
40S. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
MOS LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM ON SUNDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS THEN MOS
SUGGESTS...WILL GO AT OR ABOVE MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WITH
THE EJECTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO COVER THIS SYSTEM. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE
THREAT FOR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LATER NEXT WEEK AS ENSEMBLES DIFFER
ON THE EVOLVING PATTERN. A SLIM MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE
ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EAST COAST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST...WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST
A MORE PROGRESSIVE LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN. IF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS END UP BEING CORRECT...MILDER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS NEXT THURSDAY...WHILE
THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A COLDER PATTER WITH THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD. FOR
NOW...WILL ADD SOME SMALL POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR NEXT THURSDAY TO
COVER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 121500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 937 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
IFR CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY EAST INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
AT THE MOMENT. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THIS DECK SHOULD REACH
KIND AROUND 1530Z. UPDATED TAF TO REFLECT THIS. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG IFR WILL LAST...SO LEFT IT IN FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT FOG EXPECTED TO
LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AS MIXING SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
UNDER A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION INDICATED ON LAST EVENING/S UPPER
AIR. POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EXTENSIVE MVFR DECK AROUND 025
HAS BEEN SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDAY
HOURS AND ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
WESTERLY.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 270-290
DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
910 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
In the mid-levels, a broad ridge was in place across the central
U.S. with a closed low centered over the New England area. To the
west, a mid-level trough has developed just off the Pacific
coastline, and it`s this feature that will support rain/snow chances
late weekend into early next week. At the surface the forecast area
remained wedged between high pressure to the east and low pressure
over the Rockies. Model soundings continue to show a strong
inversion in place over the region, which combined with gradual
moisture advection into the area has resulted in moisture remaining
trapped in the low-levels. These conditions have contributed to the
persistent overcast skies and frequent periods of drizzle/mist and
patchy fog. Patchy drizzle and fog were present early this morning,
but model soundings show drier conditions developing within the
low-levels through the morning hours so anticipate a break in the
drizzle by mid morning, if not earlier, and persisting through the
afternoon hours. As the surface high shifts further to the east,
winds are expected to veer toward the south today. Despite the
overcast skies in place, expect these southerly winds to provide
enough warm air advection to boost afternoon high temperatures up
into the upper 40s/low 50s. This southerly flow also will contribute
to continued moisture advection into the area with dewpoint
temperatures rising into the 40s. Model soundings show the dry air
in the low-levels diminishing through the evening and overnight
hours tonight, so expect some areas of drizzle and fog to develop
once again late tonight into Saturday morning. These overcast skies
also will continue to limit the amount of radiational cooling that
occurs in the evening with low temperatures tonight only expected to
drop into the mid/upper 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
The long term period still looks unsettled and the forecast
remains more-or-less unchanged, but perhaps with more confidence
in the details of the storm system late Sunday into Monday.
Saturday through Sunday morning is still on track for continued
cloudy, occasionally foggy conditions with periods of drizzle. The
good news is that Saturday will be quite warm for this time of
year, especially given the cloud cover. The probability for
measurable precipitation through this period is quite low but the
probability of generally wet conditions is rather high.
By mid-day Sunday, the very potent storm system currently lashing
the west coast will be deepening as it moves into the Oklahoma
panhandle region. The upper low will also become a closed low
after crossing the Rockies, which can sometimes signal a slower
progression to the east. This particular system appears to have a
structure that will support continued eastward movement through
Monday, although we have slowed the onset of precipitation locally
with this forecast...with rain not likely to enter the forecast
area until Sunday afternoon. At this time, have moderate
confidence in the track of the storm system being through eastern
KS, and have moderate to high confidence that given this track,
temperature profiles will support rain in the forecast area
through the majority of the storm system. The one exception may be
over north central and far northeast KS as precipitation is
winding down on Monday when some light snow may mix in for a bit.
Much of the forecast area can expect 0.25 to 0.75 inches of liquid
precipitation with this storm system before it exits the area late
Monday. The airmass will be a bit cooler for Tuesday and
Wednesday, closer to normal.
The unsettled weather pattern continues for the foreseeable future
with a steady feed of storm systems moving out of the southwestern
CONUS and into the Plains through day 7 and likely beyond. One of
these storm systems will be scheduled for the end of next week
with substantial uncertainty in how it will evolve. Much of this
uncertainty ties to a separate upper level low that will move
along the US/Canada border during the mid week period. So at this
time, the take-away point with this forecast is to expect
precipitation late next week, and whether it falls as rain or
winter precip is still very much in question.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 910 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
12Z RAOB from Topeka showed winds just off he surface where from
the southwest and west, which had warmed temps in the 950 to 850MB
layer quite a bit. Think this warming is what reduced the RH in
this layer and allowed CIGS to improve above 3KFT. The RAP and NAM
keep a relative minimum in RH over the terminals through the day.
Therefore have amended the TAFS to keep CIGS VFR. VSBY should
graually improve, but some BR is likely to persist through the
day. CIGS could lower after sunset with some diurnally driven
cooling allowing the low levels to saturate once again, so will
keep a mention of MVFR CIGS after 00Z. Confidence is marginal
since I originally expected CIGS to remain IFR so will keep
monitoring trends.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
615 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
THIS MORNING:
SOME LOCATIONS LIKE KDDC HAVE BEEN GOING IN AND OUT OF FOG ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WHILE OTHER SITES OUT WEST STILL INDICATE DENSE FOG. IN ORDER
TO AVOID SPLITTING HAIRS, WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS IS AND EVEN
HAVE EXTENDED IN TIME AS THE FOG MAY LINGER LONGER THAN WHAT MODELS
ARE INDICATING. PUSHED THE EXPIRATION TIME OUT ANOTHER 2 HOURS. ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HRRR GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THAT A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE DENSE FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING.
TODAY:
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES DUE TO FOG. HOWEVER,
THINK THAT LINGERING FOG WILL RESULT IN LOWER HIGHS LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY.
UPSLOPE FOG SHOULD LINGER THEN LONGEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND
HAVE GONE LOWER HERE. CALLING FOR 40S WEST TO 50S EAST. SOME
GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY COOLER, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS WARMER. SOME OF
THE MODELS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG DECAY AND RESULTANT
WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BOTTOM LINE, ANOTHER TRICKY TEMPERATURE
DAY.
TONIGHT:
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS SEEING DENSE FOG AS
INDICATED PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PLUMES. WILL KEEP FOG
IN THE GRIDS. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE ENOUGH SATURATION
THICKNESS FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE, HOWEVER, LOOKS MORE OF FOG THAN DRIZZLE.
MINIMUMS WILL BE MILD AGAIN WITH THE FOG, HIGHER DEWPOINTS, AND CLOUD
COVER - 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: AHEAD OF THE STORM.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
CONTINUED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS. LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO ERODE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
AREAS LIKE ELKHART AND LIBERAL MAY EXCEED 60 DEGREES IF SOME SUN CAN
BE REALIZED AFTER NOON. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE REGION WILL STAY
SOCKED IN WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID 50S AS A
GENERAL RULE. THE MAJOR TROUGH OUT WEST WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
ROCKIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF, GFS, AND CANADIAN GEM ALL
AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAJOR MID-LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY IN THE
EVENING TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
WILL SPONSOR CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, EFFECTIVELY INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS. NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH OFF THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES WITH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
SUNDAY: THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT.
BY 12Z SUNDAY, THE 500MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE LOW CENTER SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO...AND A 700MB LOW ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO-NEW MEXICO
BORDER. BY THIS TIME, WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY DECENT AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
WILL BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A NORTHEASTWARD EXPANDING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AXIS, WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE 12-18Z TIME
FRAME. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE NAM12 IS ACTUALLY SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF MODEL, WHICH IS OPPOSITE OF WHAT IS TYPICALLY SEEN FROM PAST
PERFORMANCE OF THE NAM REGARDING UPPER LOWS LIKE THIS. EITHER WAY,
BOTH THE NAM12 AND ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT OCCLUSION OCCURRING DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH A DRY INTRUSION WORKING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE 700-500MB LOW CENTERS. IT IS LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKE A ONE-SHOT DEAL FOR DECENT ACCUMULATING RAINFALL -
- THE 12 TO 18Z TIME FRAME SUNDAY. THE NAM12 SHOWS 500-700 J/KG OF
MUCAPE WHICH REALLY COMES AS NO SURPRISE GIVEN A) THE 50-53F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND B) RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE WX
GRIDS WILL REFLECT THIS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS MAIN WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION AREA. BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, IT IS NOT UNREASONABLE TO THINK THAT SOME SUN MAY FILTER
IN BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF MORNING/MIDDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND
IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR, THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE
ALLOWING ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM WITHIN THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION.
SUNDAY NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY: THE WRAP-AROUND AND CHANGE OVER TO WET
SNOW.
THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE WILL BE OCCLUDING AND FILLING FAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE 700MB LOW CENTERED SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WITH THE LOW CENTERED AT THIS LATITUDE, THE BEST AREA FOR WRAP-
AROUND COLD SECTOR DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND ADJACENT EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE
HIGHEST EVENING POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS
(SYRACUSE UP TO SCOTT CITY MAINLY). THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WRAP-
AROUND PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE COLD SECTOR WILL MOST LIKELY BE
SNOW AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -1 TO -3C, ESPECIALLY BY 06Z. BY
THIS TIME, HOWEVER, THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
ANY WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT, AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO SYRACUSE-SCOTT CITY-WAKEENEY LINE. THE PROSPECT OF MODERATE
TO EVEN LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL (TO CREATE ANY TRAVEL HAZARD)
FOR ANY PORTION OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA HAS DECREASED QUITE A BIT.
IN FACT, WE WON`T BE CARRYING ANY MORE THAN ABOUT A HALF INCH OF
SNOW ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA, AND THAT WILL ONLY BE UP IN
SCOTT-LANE-TREGO COUNTY.
EARLY WEEK: IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS.
WE WILL SEE SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST STORM. WE SHOULD ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT OF
COOLER CANADIAN AIR, AND IT WILL NOT BE ARCTIC IN NATURE. MONDAY`S
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S MOST EVERYWHERE WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH OR SO (STRONGEST EARLY IN THE DAY).
EYES THEN TURN BACK OUT WEST AS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH AND PACIFIC JET
DIVES TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WE WILL REMAIN IN SHORTWAVE
RIDGING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT STORM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION WITH TEMPERATURES SEASONAL IN THE
LOWER 40S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MID-LATE WEEK: THE NEXT STORM?
THERE IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE DEC 18-20 TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL SUGGESTING A DECENT WINTER
PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE LEGACY GFS40 MODEL SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER
INITIAL WAVE AND THUS MUCH LESS DEVELOPMENT FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE GFS40 FOCUSES MUCH OF ITS ENERGY ON THE SECOND
JET STREAK WHICH DIVES WAY DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. IN THE GRIDS,
WE WILL BE FOLLOWING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE OF 20-30 POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THURSDAY, THURSDAY NIGHT PERIODS FOR NOW WITH A
VAGUE "RAIN OR SNOW" AS THE WX TYPE RIGHT NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
VERY POOR AVIATION WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE OVERALL
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED UNTIL THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM COMES SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 48 56 51 / 10 10 10 30
GCK 51 45 58 49 / 10 10 10 50
EHA 55 40 65 44 / 0 0 0 30
LBL 53 45 65 50 / 10 10 10 60
HYS 52 46 54 52 / 10 10 10 10
P28 53 48 57 54 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR KSZ030-
043>045-061>064-074>080-084>089.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
435 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
THIS MORNING:
SOME LOCATIONS LIKE KDDC HAVE BEEN GOING IN AND OUT OF FOG ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WHILE OTHER SITES OUT WEST STILL INDICATE DENSE FOG. IN ORDER
TO AVOID SPLITTING HAIRS, WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS IS AND EVEN
HAVE EXTENDED IN TIME AS THE FOG MAY LINGER LONGER THAN WHAT MODELS
ARE INDICATING. PUSHED THE EXPIRATION TIME OUT ANOTHER 2 HOURS. ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HRRR GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THAT A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE DENSE FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING.
TODAY:
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES DUE TO FOG. HOWEVER,
THINK THAT LINGERING FOG WILL RESULT IN LOWER HIGHS LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY.
UPSLOPE FOG SHOULD LINGER THEN LONGEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND
HAVE GONE LOWER HERE. CALLING FOR 40S WEST TO 50S EAST. SOME
GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY COOLER, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS WARMER. SOME OF
THE MODELS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG DECAY AND RESULTANT
WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BOTTOM LINE, ANOTHER TRICKY TEMPERATURE
DAY.
TONIGHT:
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS SEEING DENSE FOG AS
INDICATED PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PLUMES. WILL KEEP FOG
IN THE GRIDS. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE ENOUGH SATURATION
THICKNESS FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE, HOWEVER, LOOKS MORE OF FOG THAN DRIZZLE.
MINIMUMS WILL BE MILD AGAIN WITH THE FOG, HIGHER DEWPOINTS, AND CLOUD
COVER - 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: AHEAD OF THE STORM.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
CONTINUED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS. LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO ERODE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
AREAS LIKE ELKHART AND LIBERAL MAY EXCEED 60 DEGREES IF SOME SUN CAN
BE REALIZED AFTER NOON. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE REGION WILL STAY
SOCKED IN WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID 50S AS A
GENERAL RULE. THE MAJOR TROUGH OUT WEST WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
ROCKIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF, GFS, AND CANADIAN GEM ALL
AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAJOR MID-LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY IN THE
EVENING TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
WILL SPONSOR CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, EFFECTIVELY INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS. NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH OFF THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES WITH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
SUNDAY: THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT.
BY 12Z SUNDAY, THE 500MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE LOW CENTER SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO...AND A 700MB LOW ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO-NEW MEXICO
BORDER. BY THIS TIME, WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY DECENT AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
WILL BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A NORTHEASTWARD EXPANDING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AXIS, WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE 12-18Z TIME
FRAME. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE NAM12 IS ACTUALLY SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF MODEL, WHICH IS OPPOSITE OF WHAT IS TYPICALLY SEEN FROM PAST
PERFORMANCE OF THE NAM REGARDING UPPER LOWS LIKE THIS. EITHER WAY,
BOTH THE NAM12 AND ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT OCCLUSION OCCURRING DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH A DRY INTRUSION WORKING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE 700-500MB LOW CENTERS. IT IS LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKE A ONE-SHOT DEAL FOR DECENT ACCUMULATING RAINFALL -
- THE 12 TO 18Z TIME FRAME SUNDAY. THE NAM12 SHOWS 500-700 J/KG OF
MUCAPE WHICH REALLY COMES AS NO SURPRISE GIVEN A) THE 50-53F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND B) RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE WX
GRIDS WILL REFLECT THIS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS MAIN WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION AREA. BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, IT IS NOT UNREASONABLE TO THINK THAT SOME SUN MAY FILTER
IN BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF MORNING/MIDDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND
IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR, THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE
ALLOWING ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM WITHIN THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION.
SUNDAY NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY: THE WRAP-AROUND AND CHANGE OVER TO WET
SNOW.
THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE WILL BE OCCLUDING AND FILLING FAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE 700MB LOW CENTERED SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WITH THE LOW CENTERED AT THIS LATITUDE, THE BEST AREA FOR WRAP-
AROUND COLD SECTOR DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND ADJACENT EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE
HIGHEST EVENING POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS
(SYRACUSE UP TO SCOTT CITY MAINLY). THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WRAP-
AROUND PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE COLD SECTOR WILL MOST LIKELY BE
SNOW AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -1 TO -3C, ESPECIALLY BY 06Z. BY
THIS TIME, HOWEVER, THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
ANY WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT, AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO SYRACUSE-SCOTT CITY-WAKEENEY LINE. THE PROSPECT OF MODERATE
TO EVEN LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL (TO CREATE ANY TRAVEL HAZARD)
FOR ANY PORTION OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA HAS DECREASED QUITE A BIT.
IN FACT, WE WON`T BE CARRYING ANY MORE THAN ABOUT A HALF INCH OF
SNOW ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA, AND THAT WILL ONLY BE UP IN
SCOTT-LANE-TREGO COUNTY.
EARLY WEEK: IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS.
WE WILL SEE SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST STORM. WE SHOULD ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT OF
COOLER CANADIAN AIR, AND IT WILL NOT BE ARCTIC IN NATURE. MONDAY`S
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S MOST EVERYWHERE WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH OR SO (STRONGEST EARLY IN THE DAY).
EYES THEN TURN BACK OUT WEST AS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH AND PACIFIC JET
DIVES TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WE WILL REMAIN IN SHORTWAVE
RIDGING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT STORM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION WITH TEMPERATURES SEASONAL IN THE
LOWER 40S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MID-LATE WEEK: THE NEXT STORM?
THERE IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE DEC 18-20 TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL SUGGESTING A DECENT WINTER
PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE LEGACY GFS40 MODEL SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER
INITIAL WAVE AND THUS MUCH LESS DEVELOPMENT FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE GFS40 FOCUSES MUCH OF ITS ENERGY ON THE SECOND
JET STREAK WHICH DIVES WAY DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. IN THE GRIDS,
WE WILL BE FOLLOWING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE OF 20-30 POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THURSDAY, THURSDAY NIGHT PERIODS FOR NOW WITH A
VAGUE "RAIN OR SNOW" AS THE WX TYPE RIGHT NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PD, PARTICULARLY FOR
KGCK/KDDC. LIFR CONDITIONS MIGHT IMPROVE TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD BE TOO AGGRESSIVE AND THE GENERAL FLIGHT CATEGORY MIGHT JUST
CONTINUE LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHOUT IMPROVEMENT. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL FAVOR FOG AND REDUCED VIS. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LIKELY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LIFR PREVAILING AS FOG AND RESULTANT LOW VIS REDEVELOPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 48 56 51 / 10 10 10 30
GCK 51 45 58 49 / 10 10 10 50
EHA 55 40 65 44 / 0 0 0 30
LBL 53 45 65 50 / 10 10 10 60
HYS 52 46 54 52 / 10 10 10 10
P28 53 48 57 54 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR KSZ030-
043>045-061>064-074>080-084>089.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1213 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
THIS MORNING:
SOME LOCATIONS LIKE KDDC HAVE BEEN GOING IN AND OUT OF FOG ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WHILE OTHER SITES OUT WEST STILL INDICATE DENSE FOG. IN ORDER
TO AVOID SPLITTING HAIRS, WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS IS AND EVEN
HAVE EXTENDED IN TIME AS THE FOG MAY LINGER LONGER THAN WHAT MODELS
ARE INDICATING. PUSHED THE EXPIRATION TIME OUT ANOTHER 2 HOURS. ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HRRR GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THAT A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE DENSE FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING.
TODAY:
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES DUE TO FOG. HOWEVER,
THINK THAT LINGERING FOG WILL RESULT IN LOWER HIGHS LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY.
UPSLOPE FOG SHOULD LINGER THEN LONGEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND
HAVE GONE LOWER HERE. CALLING FOR 40S WEST TO 50S EAST. SOME
GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY COOLER, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS WARMER. SOME OF
THE MODELS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG DECAY AND RESULTANT
WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BOTTOM LINE, ANOTHER TRICKY TEMPERATURE
DAY.
TONIGHT:
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS SEEING DENSE FOG AS
INDICATED PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PLUMES. WILL KEEP FOG
IN THE GRIDS. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE ENOUGH SATURATION
THICKNESS FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE, HOWEVER, LOOKS MORE OF FOG THAN DRIZZLE.
MINIMUMS WILL BE MILD AGAIN WITH THE FOG, HIGHER DEWPOINTS, AND CLOUD
COVER - 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO A
DIFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN REGION BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES, A PREVAILING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH H85 DEWPOINTS NEARING
10C. LIGHT WINDS AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE FLOW WILL
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ARE LIKELY WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOISTURE PRESENT RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF DENSE FOG.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS SUNDAY AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
LESS THAN FAVORABLE, PRECIP IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW WHERE INCREASED LIFT WILL
BE PRESENT. BASED ON GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS, VERTICAL PROFILES
INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST SUGGESTING RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A HAYS TO DODGE CITY LINE. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SEEMS TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE,
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM AS IT KICKS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY...NOT TO MENTION HOW MUCH SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERALL DUE
TO THE WET AND WARMER GROUND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS DURING THE PERIOD. A
PREVAILING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 10C IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS COULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 50S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. EVEN WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS, THE LOWER 60S(F) ARE
STILL A POSSIBILITY IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS IS LESS LIKELY DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR
HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) THERE AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. HIGHS MAY ONCE AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO SEE THE 50S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUD
COVER AND LINGERING PRECIP MAY BE INHIBITING FACTORS. COLDER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY
LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 30S(F) AND 40S(F) WITH THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PD, PARTICULARLY FOR
KGCK/KDDC. LIFR CONDITIONS MIGHT IMPROVE TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD BE TOO AGGRESSIVE AND THE GENERAL FLIGHT CATEGORY MIGHT JUST
CONTINUE LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHOUT IMPROVEMENT. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL FAVOR FOG AND REDUCED VIS. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LIKELY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LIFR PREVAILING AS FOG AND RESULTANT LOW VIS REDEVELOPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 48 54 53 / 10 10 10 20
GCK 51 45 54 47 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 49 40 60 40 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 51 45 62 49 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 52 46 55 52 / 10 10 10 10
P28 53 48 60 54 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR KSZ030-
043>045-061>064-074>080-084>089.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1141 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
20Z water vapor imagery shows a mid level ridge from the southern
Rockies into the northern plains. A weak shortwave was noted moving
south over the area on the back side of the closed low over the
northeast. However there is not much deep layer vertical motion with
this wave as indicated by the persistent stratus deck trapped within
a low level inversion. At the surface, ridging over the MS river
valley and low pressure along the lee of the Rockies has formed a
favorable pattern for gulf moisture to return north. This is also
aiding in the persistence of the low clouds and mist.
For tonight and Friday, models show little change in the pattern
with low level moisture continuing to advect north into the area.
Additionally weak subsidence on the back side of the shortwave aloft
is likely to reinforce the low level inversion through the day Friday
making it unlikely the boundary layer will mix out. Therefore the
forecast is for continued dreary weather. The NAM and RAP show low
level isentropic upglide redeveloping early this evening. Because of
this think areas of mist and drizzle are likely to redevelop. The
good news with all of this is temperatures are not expected to cool
much if any tonight due to a lack of radiational cooling and
continued low level moisture and warm air advection. The forecast
has temps pretty much holding steady in the upper 30s to around 40.
So the weather is expected to have little impact to daily activities
and the only impact of concern may be some restricted visibilities
from fog. However think that widespread dense fog will be mitigated
by the stratus already in place. Have been conservative with highs
Friday expecting overcast skies to hold strong. Although southerly
winds and warm air advection should help warm temps into the lower
50s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
Low level moisture advection increases northward Friday evening as
high pressure shifts east. Surface trough develops over the
Rockies resulting in increasing winds around 10 to 15 mph during the
afternoon Saturday. Winds do not appear particularly strong enough
to overcome the persistent stratus deck, with increasing moisture
raising dewpoints into the lower 50s. Thermal ridge stretched from
western Texas through the Midwest advects h85 temps near 13C by
Sunday morning. Above normal highs remain on track with readings in
the upper 50s to low 60s this weekend. Insulation from the stratus
may keep lows near the record warm levels as overnight lows fall
into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
In terms of precipitation Saturday, forecast soundings show brief
periods of enhanced lift within the cloud deck where light drizzle
or rain showers are possible. Surface winds hold or increase
slightly Saturday evening into Sunday as the upper shortwave trough
deepens east towards the four corners region. Adjusted precip
chances for rainfall Sunday afternoon as latest guidance is trending
the upper trough a tad slower, arriving in the late afternoon across
north central areas...spreading into all of northeast Kansas during
the evening. Bulk of the light to moderate rainfall exits by Monday
morning while models still hint at an enhanced deformation zone
setting up over eastern Nebraska and the northern half of the CWA.
There is some uncertainty on guidance as latest runs remain in
disagreement on the track of the upper trough and therefore how far
south additional precip occurs on Monday. At this time, held highest
chances north of Interstate 70 where falling temps Monday afternoon
and evening may switch rain over to a rain and snow mix. Rainfall
accumulations by the end of the event may range from a quarter up to
an inch for most locations. Accumulating snowfall is not anticipated
as below freezing temps do not arrive until after precipitation
exits.
Surface high pressure builds into the area Tuesday and Wednesday
where our best bet for sunny skies exists. Temperatures fall back to
more seasonal values with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and
30s. This pattern unfortunately does not last long as stratus
returns with the amplification of a slow-moving longwave trough
developing to the southwest. Vorticity maxima embedded within the
mean flow ejects into the central plains Wednesday evening and Thursday.
Much uncertainty remains with this system however the cooler airmass
in place hints at a possible rain and snow mix for much of the area
during this time. This system is not notably strong but will
continue to watch trends in upcoming days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014
Expect LIFR/IFR ceilings for all terminals through the night and into the
mid and late morning hours of Friday. Light fog and drizzle will
reduce visibilities between 1 and 2 SM. During the afternoon
ceilings may increase to low MFVR levels of 1,000 to 1,300 feet and
remain that way into the mid evening hours of Friday, before IFR
conditions develop once again through the night.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
944 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN KY IS HEADING TOWARD OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THINK THAT WITH WARMING TODAY THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE. IT IS
A MATTER OF HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS. HAVE UPDATED TO BRING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES INTO OUR FAR NW FOR A TIME AROUND MID DAY.
TEMPS ARE SLOWER TO WARM THIS MORNING THAN WAS FORECAST. HAVE CHANGED
THE TEMPORAL TEMPERATURE CURVE TO REFLECT THIS. HAVE NOT CHANGED THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS AT THIS POINT...WAITING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH
STRONGER WARMING ONCE THE SUN GETS HIGHER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
TOUCHED UP THE T/TD GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. ACCORDINGLY...READINGS
EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS
TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ON THE RIDGES.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT DEPICTING THE SLOW RETREAT
OF THE DEEP AND BLOCKY NORTHEASTERN LOW. WHILE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE PATTERN WILL BE STARVED OF MID LEVEL ENERGY AND HEIGHTS WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR TODAY THIS WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY. IT WILL ALSO MEAN A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THAT A THICK LAYER OF LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...
PERHAPS HOLDING ON THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SO...DESPITE THE HIGH
PRESSURE THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RUIN WHAT SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY
AND ALSO KEEP SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH MORE
THAN THEY WILL THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE TAKEN THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND MADE
SOME SUCH PESSIMISTIC ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN FACT...
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT POCKETS OF DRIZZLE FALLING OUT OF THESE
LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS WITH SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS MADE TONIGHT...MAINLY
EARLY. AS FOR POPS AND WX...KEPT THEM LOW AND NON-EXISTENT FRIDAY
GIVEN THE HIGH PRESSURE REGIME NOW IN PLACE...AND IN LINE WITH SINGLE
DIGIT MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES INTO
THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL EXHIBIT A PATTERN OF CHANGE AS THE
NOREASTER FINALLY STARTS ITS SHIFT EASTWARD...AND ALLOWS FOR A
CHANGING AND LESS SETTLING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
WHILE THE NOREASTER IS BREWING JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH WILL BEGIN IMPOSING ON THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES STRENGTHENING INTO CLOSED LOWS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 0 AND 12Z SUNDAY. AS THEY SHIFT EASTWARD...THIS
WILL PUSH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND KEEP CALM CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE ONLY
CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POPS/MOISTURE TO ROUND THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE TROUGH /NAMELY POINTS TO OUR NORTH/. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...KEPT IN PLACE BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THIS
MOISTURE WILL FINALLY DEPART BY MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
JUST TO OUR EAST...AND WE START TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE
INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FIRST CLOSED LOW.
BY 12Z MONDAY...THIS LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE SECONDARY CLOSED LOW TO IT/S
NE. AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ENSUE ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BOOST TEMPS UP INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE CWA...AS WELL AS PULL IN MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF COAST. WHILE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE US CLEARING OUT IN THE LOW LEVELS MONDAY
WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE INDUCED INVERSION...IN
THE UPPER LEVELS CLOUDS WILL BEGIN THICKENING AGAIN. THIS LAST MODEL
RUN...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FINALLY COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT
FOR THE START AND END TIMES OF THIS PRECIP BAND. BOTH SHOW THE
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z TUESDAY.
ORIGINALLY...THE GFS CUT PRECIP POTENTIAL OFF BY 0Z
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HELD ONTO UPSLOPE PRECIP SOME 12 HOURS
LONGER. WITH THIS LATEST MODEL RUN...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE ECMWF IS
NOW STEERING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...WHICH IS A BIT
SURPRISING CONSIDERING THAT THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE. AS
SUCH...KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND /INCLUDING THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE
ECMWF/...IN WHICH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN MAY LINGER OVER THE SE
HIGH TERRAIN TIL AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
ANOTHER...MORE MILD...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ACROSS KY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS BY
THIS POINT...SO WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/S
FORECAST WAS ALTERED AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS IT IS
NOW...A SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY FRIDAY...BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE REGION. REGARDLESS...THE LACK OF
LARGE VARIATIONS ALOFT...AS WELL AS CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER...WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE A DECK OF
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM THE WEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
715 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
TOUCHED UP THE T/TD GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. ACCORDINGLY...READINGS
EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS
TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ON THE RIDGES.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT DEPICTING THE SLOW RETREAT
OF THE DEEP AND BLOCKY NORTHEASTERN LOW. WHILE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE PATTERN WILL BE STARVED OF MID LEVEL ENERGY AND HEIGHTS WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR TODAY THIS WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY. IT WILL ALSO MEAN A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THAT A THICK LAYER OF LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...
PERHAPS HOLDING ON THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SO...DESPITE THE HIGH
PRESSURE THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RUIN WHAT SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY
AND ALSO KEEP SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH MORE
THAN THEY WILL THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE TAKEN THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND MADE
SOME SUCH PESSIMISTIC ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN FACT...
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT POCKETS OF DRIZZLE FALLING OUT OF THESE
LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS WITH SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS MADE TONIGHT...MAINLY
EARLY. AS FOR POPS AND WX...KEPT THEM LOW AND NON-EXISTENT FRIDAY
GIVEN THE HIGH PRESSURE REGIME NOW IN PLACE...AND IN LINE WITH SINGLE
DIGIT MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES INTO
THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL EXHIBIT A PATTERN OF CHANGE AS THE
NOREASTER FINALLY STARTS ITS SHIFT EASTWARD...AND ALLOWS FOR A
CHANGING AND LESS SETTLING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
WHILE THE NOREASTER IS BREWING JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH WILL BEGIN IMPOSING ON THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES STRENGTHENING INTO CLOSED LOWS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 0 AND 12Z SUNDAY. AS THEY SHIFT EASTWARD...THIS
WILL PUSH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND KEEP CALM CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE ONLY
CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POPS/MOISTURE TO ROUND THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE TROUGH /NAMELY POINTS TO OUR NORTH/. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...KEPT IN PLACE BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THIS
MOISTURE WILL FINALLY DEPART BY MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
JUST TO OUR EAST...AND WE START TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE
INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FIRST CLOSED LOW.
BY 12Z MONDAY...THIS LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE SECONDARY CLOSED LOW TO IT/S
NE. AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ENSUE ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BOOST TEMPS UP INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE CWA...AS WELL AS PULL IN MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF COAST. WHILE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE US CLEARING OUT IN THE LOW LEVELS MONDAY
WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE INDUCED INVERSION...IN
THE UPPER LEVELS CLOUDS WILL BEGIN THICKENING AGAIN. THIS LAST MODEL
RUN...THE GFS AND ECWMF HAVE FINALLY COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT
FOR THE START AND END TIMES OF THIS PRECIP BAND. BOTH SHOW THE
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z TUESDAY.
ORIGINALLY...THE GFS CUT PRECIP POTENTIAL OFF BY 0Z
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HELD ONTO UPSLOPE PRECIP SOME 12 HOURS
LONGER. WITH THIS LATEST MODEL RUN...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE ECMWF IS
NOW STEERING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...WHICH IS A BIT
SURPRISING CONSIDERING THAT THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE. AS
SUCH...KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND /INCLUDING THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE
ECMWF/...IN WHICH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN MAY LINGER OVER THE SE
HIGH TERRAIN TIL AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
ANOTHER...MORE MILD...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ACROSS KY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS BY
THIS POINT...SO WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/S
FORECAST WAS ALTERED AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS IT IS
NOW...A SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY FRIDAY...BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE REGION. REGARDLESS...THE LACK OF
LARGE VARIATIONS ALOFT...AS WELL AS CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER...WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE A DECK OF
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM THE WEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
654 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
YET ANOTHER FORECAST SHIFT SPENT TRYING TO FIGURE OUT CLOUD AND FOG
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION IN
THE LOWEST 50MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION IS MUCH
WARMER /850MB TEMPS UP TO 12C IN THE SHORT TERM/ AND VERY DRY
/925-700MB LAYER RH LESS THAN 25 PERCENT/. AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS/FOG ARE VERY PERSISTENT
AND LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR /AT LEAST
OVER THE MQT CWA/. HOWEVER...INLAND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY OBSERVED TO THE W ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH WILL CROSS THE CWA TODAY. THINK THIS WILL PROMOTE
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR LESS CLOUD COVERAGE IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR
ONTONAGON AND ADDITIONALLY FROM BARAGA TO BIG BAY AND ON THE
MARQUETTE AND AU TRAIN AS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL HAVE
TRAJECTORIES FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN TO THE ERN U.P. AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. FOR THE FOG...KEPT IT CONFINED MAINLY TO THE KEWEENAW
AND ERN U.P. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ADDED INLAND AREAS TONIGHT AS
NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY.
KEPT HIGH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING TODAY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEKEND
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVES IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN BEGIN TO INTERACT LEAVING A TROUGH
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. VERY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
GRADUAL COOL DOWN BY TUE WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
SATURDAY...WARM ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS
INTO THE 12C TO 14C RANGE WILL RESULT IN A VERY STRONG INVERSION
THAT SHOULD INHIBIT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE INVERSION TO SUSTAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER MOST OF THE REGION TO THE
WEST. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
WHERE DOWNSLOPE WRLY FLOW PREVAILS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
TO AROUND 40.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP AS WEAK UPWARD
MOTION PREVAILS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THICKENING ACROSS UPPER
MI AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...MELTING SNOW WILL ADD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PHASED SOLUTION WITH THE NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES THAT PRODUCES
A STRONGER SFC LOW THAT MOVES FARTHER NORTH INTO THE WRN LAKES. THIS
WOULD DELAY THE INTRUSION OF COLDER AIR WITH MAINLY RAIN LINGERING
THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE GEM AND A LARGE NUMBER OF GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS STILL FAVOR A LESS PHASED SYSTEM WITH A MORE SRLY TRACK OF
THE LOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL LOW
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE FCST
STILL REFLECTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EARLIER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...PER
PREVIOUS MDLS SOLUTIONS.
TUE-THU...COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW AND SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. A MORE NRLY LOW TRACK WOULD BRING THE BEST SNOW CHANCES
FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WNW FLOW. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE EVEN LARGER
BY THU AS THE ECMWF BRINGS MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BACK TOWARD THE
WRN LAKES WHILE THE GFS LEAVES THE MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE DAKOTAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
AT IWD...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS
TURN OUT OF THE SSW...WHICH WILL BE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPING WIND. FOG
MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR AT THE AIRPORT TONIGHT...BUT AM UNCERTAIN OF THE
EXTENT.
AT CMX...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS TODAY EXCEPT THAT
VIS SHOULD IMPROVE SOME. WINDS LOOK TO TURN ENOUGH OUT OF THE SSW
TONIGHT TO KEEP THE INCREASED MOISTURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR OUT OF THE
AIRPORT. CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD MOVE BACK IN AROUND THE END OF THE TAF
TIME...BUT DID NOT REFLECT THAT IN THIS TAF. AM QUITE UNCERTAIN ON
TIMING/EXTENT OF IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT WIND
DIRECTION.
AT SAW...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE SITE THIS
MORNING...BUT AS ABOVE SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE OUT OF THE W THIS
AFTERNOON...DOWNSLOPING SHOULD RESULT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
FOG/LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT AM UNCERTAIN ON THE EXTENT.
MAINLY USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND HRRR (WHEN AVAILABLE) FOR CIGS
AND THE NAM...LAMP AND NCEP HIGH-RES WRF FOR VIS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
W TO NW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING THE N OF A HIGH CENTER
IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BACK TO THE SW OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH STABILITY
OVER THE WATERS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MON...N
WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 25-30 KTS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
640 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
LOW STRATUS WILL COVER MOST OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING AS
VERY LOW INVERSION HEIGHT SUPPORTS BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CEILING. WEAK
MIXING DURING THE DAY WILL THEN HELP LIFT BASES INTO LOWER MVFR ALL
AREAS BY AFTERNOON. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE PROSPECTS OF SEEING
CLEARING TONIGHT GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF MOISTURE AROUND 925 MB.
AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN MORE PESSIMISTIC IN SUSTAINING MVFR STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY...LOW CONFIDENCE
TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SE MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN JUST DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THIS POSITIONING SUSTAINING A
NORTHWEST FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER MARKING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE
BURGEONING INVERSION LAYER ABOVE 925 MB WILL TRANSLATE INTO A STABLE
PROFILE TODAY. HOWEVER CLOUD TRENDS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING ISSUE
AS A PERIOD OF WEAK 925 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION/THERMAL TROUGHING
WORKING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE PERIPHERY
EFFECTIVELY SATURATES THE THIN 925-950 MB SUB-INVERSION LAYER.
RECENT NAM AND RAP RH FIELDS AT THIS LEVEL CORRESPOND WELL WITH THE
SOUTHWARD EXPANDING SOLID STRATUS DECK NOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO HOLD FIRM OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WELL
INTO THE DAY. THE OVERALL SETUP POINTS TOWARD SEEING A DEFINITIVE
SOUTHWEST EDGE TO THE STRATUS DECK...PROVIDING SOME UNCERTAINTY YET
IN POTENTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE FOR LOCALES TOWARD THE SOUTH. THESE
TRENDS SUPPORT TAKING A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH ON HIGHS
TODAY...READINGS MAINLY MID 30S.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO DIMINISH THE CLOUD
COVERAGE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY LOW ON
THE CLOUD TRENDS GOING FORWARD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR THE EXISTING MOIST LAYER TO HOLD FIRM BENEATH THE
INVERSION...LEAVING A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SOCKED UNDER A
PERSISTENT OVERCAST CONDITION. PLAN TO LEAN IN THIS DIRECTION AT
THIS TIME. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FIRMLY IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ALL THE
WAY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD SATURDAY
BY THE POWERFUL PACIFIC COAST STORM AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL
GUARD SE MICHIGAN FROM ANY POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
AND GUIDE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OVERALL
OPTIMISM IN THE FORECAST WILL BE TEMPERED BY AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS EACH DAY. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A GLOOMY DAY FULL OF
CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE SOFTENED BY MAX TEMPS PUSHING THE MID 40S OR
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND WEEKEND OF DECEMBER.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
CANADA. THESE CLOUDS WERE STRONGLY RESISTANT TO THE INFLUENCE OF
DIURNAL WARMING DURING THURSDAY...A STRONG SIGN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LOCKED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. EXPECT THE ENTIRE PATTERN TO
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY AND SATURDAY AND BRING OUR AREA UNDER
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE INCONSISTENT COVERAGE OFF THE LAKES WHILE THERE IS STILL A
NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BUT THEN SURGE LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ALLOW A BACKING WIND FIELD OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. A FEW
100THS QPF INDICATED ACROSS THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT UNDER DRY
850-500 MB LAYER RH...IS A GOOD INDICATOR OF DRIZZLE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS IS BACKED UP BY SREF ENSEMBLE SOUNDINGS
THAT SHOW DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME WITH A
STEEP INVERSION AND MODEST SPEED SHEAR. EXPECT ALL BUT THE MOST
SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE THUMB WILL BE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY MAKING FREEZING POTENTIAL A MINIMAL CONCERN BEFORE
READINGS REACH THE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONLY DROP BACK TO
AROUND 40 SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE POWERFUL PACIFIC COAST STORM MOVING INLAND TODAY WILL REACH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT IS IMPROVING BUT STILL
SHOWS DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ON THE EASTWARD PACE OF THE SYSTEM.
PREFER SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR THE GREAT LAKES GIVEN THE CONTINUED HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY THE FORMIDABLE RIDGE AXIS
AND NOR` EASTER COMBO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. SLOWER TIMING WILL
HELP ENSURE A SHORT WAVE TRACK TO OUR WEST AND A WARM OUTCOME FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE. OUR GOING FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED WELL WITH
ALL RAIN CENTERED ON TUESDAY IN SE MICHIGAN. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO A BLOCKING PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BUT
CHAOTIC MODEL DEPICTIONS SUGGEST THE LOCATION OF EVEN THE LARGER
SCALE UPPER AIR FEATURES ARE IN QUESTION.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR OUTER SAGINAW BAY
AROUND TO HARBOR BEACH FOR LINGERING ROUGH WATER DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. A SLOWLY DECREASING DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND AND WAVES WILL
CONTINUE OVER ALL MARINE AREAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. MILDER AIR STREAMING INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO STABLE PROFILES...AND CORRESPONDING LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
953 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
WHILE AREAS OF FOG LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITIES HAVE GRADUALLY IMPROVED...SO THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE...AT THIS POINT NO
NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS AMPLIFYING. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A
STRONG TROUGH MOVES ON SHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. AT THE SURFACE...WE REMAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS WE ARE SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS AND
SOME FOG. THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS WELL WEST OF THE CWA. BECAUSE
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS SO FAR WEST...I HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF
OUR FOG ADVISORY...RELEGATED TO OUR 3 FARTHEST WEST COUNTIES...AND
THIS MAY IN ITSELF BE A VERY CHEAP FOG ADVISORY...WHERE IT IS
STARTING TO LOOK MORE DOUBTFUL THAT EVEN THESE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE
DENSE FOG. WE ARE ACTUALLY GETTING LOWER VISIBILITY IN OUR
SOUTH...AS MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH OCCURS. THE CLOSEST
DENSE FOG IS IN IMPERIAL AND GOODLAND...STILL A FAIR DISTANCE AWAY.
THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS MODEL FOR THE MOST PART INTO THE
AFTERNOON. I WENT CLOSER TO THE ADJECEBC SOLUTION FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...CONSIDERING ITS STRONGER SHOWING RECENTLY...ALTHOUGH I DID
BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE THAN WHAT THIS SOLUTION ORIGINALLY
HAD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. WE SHOULD REMAIN SOCKED WITHIN STRATUS
FOR THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. MORE DRIZZLE AND FOG IS IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS REVEAL LIGHT QPF TONIGHT...EVEN THE
ECMWF. THE PROBLEM WILL BE WITH THE DEPTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. THIS IS A LIMITING FACTOR...BUT WITH SO MUCH AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS WITH LIGHT QPF...I AM INCLINED TO KEEP IN THE
DRIZZLE...BUT INTRODUCED IT A BIT LATER...IN THE MID-EVENING. FOG
COULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
STRATUS...BUT ONCE AGAIN...IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL BE WEST OF
THE CWA FOR THE MOST PART.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
PATTERN: THE FLOW WILL BE VERY COMPLEX AND AT TIMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE MULTI-DAY ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL/ERN USA WITH
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER CANADA...AND A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE E
PAC. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY WE HAVE SEEN FOR
MUCH-NEEDED MEANINGFUL PRECIP SINCE OCT 22ND. SOME OF IT COULD BE OF
THE WINTRY VARIETY.
HIGHLY RECOMMEND THE 1ST PARAGRAPH OF THE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISC
/PMDHMD/ FROM WPC. IT HAS AN EXCELLENT OVERVIEW OF MODEL TRENDS FOR
THE SYSTEM SUN-MON.
ALOFT: HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO THE ERN USA SAT-SUN AS
THE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE INTO CA HEADS E THRU THE DESERT SW
AND EJECTS NE ACROSS KS SUN-MON. A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION TUE-THU WITH ANOTHER TROF MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW.
SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE ERN USA SAT WITH GRADUAL
EASTWARD PROGRESSION SUN-MON. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS
WAY THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W WILL MOVE THRU HERE SUN WITH THE LEE-
SIDE LOW OVER CO MERGING WITH THE FRONT...MOVING ACROSS KS SUN NIGHT
AND INTO IA MON. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TUE AND SINKS INTO THE
NRN PLAINS WED-THU.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT-SUN OR VERY
CLOSE TO IT. WE CONT TO FCST RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS BOTH SAT AND SUN.
FOR SUN`S RECORDS TO BE BROKEN...TEMPS MUST STAY ABOVE THE RECORDS
THRU 1159 PM AND WE WILL BE COLD ADVECTING SUN EVE.
RECORD WARM LOWS
SAT 12/13 SUN 12/14
GRI 37 - 1896 39 - 1896
HSI 36 - 1921 36 - 1928
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE SAT`S RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN AND MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE FOR SUN`S.
SAT: NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE FROM THU OR FRI. CLOUDY WITH AM FOG/MIST.
AM NOT CONVINCED ON DRZL POTENTIAL. MOISTURE DEPTH CASTS DOUBT SO
DRZL WAS DOWNGRADED TO JUST A "CHANCE".
SUN: LATE DAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER CLOUDY START WITH AM
FOG/MIST. AN FGEN-DRIVEN COMMAHEAD BAND OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER KS
AND LIFT NORTHWARD PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HRS. BOTH THE
EC/GFS INDICATE SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES TURNING SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. SO THUNDER IS NOW IN THE FCST FOR N-CNTRL KS TO COVER
THIS POSSIBILITY.
SUN NIGHT: IT`S A RACE TO SEE HOW FAST THE COLD AIR CAN WRAP INTO
THE COMMAHEAD AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME. SUGGEST EVERYONE
INTERESTED IN THIS POTENTIAL CONT TO MONITOR LATER FCSTS AND PREPARE
FOR PLOWABLE SNOW POSSIBILITY. HIGHEST PROBABLY IS CURRENTLY N AND W
OF THE TRI-CITIES.
FOR NOW MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW EXCEPT THE SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA...
ROUGHLY S OF A LINE FROM OSBORNE KS-YORK NE.
MON: BLUSTERY AND COLDER. POSSIBLY A LITTLE LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW AS
THE LOW DEPARTS WRN IA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TUE: DRY BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS/CLOUD COVER. EC/GFS CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SUBSTANTIAL MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS UNDER
A STRONG 110KT JET.
WED: DRY AND PROBABLY A LOT OF CLOUDS.
WED NIGHT-THU: WE CURRENTLY HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW BUT IT
LOOKS DOUBTFUL BASED ON THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH SUGGESTS THIS
NEXT DESERT SW SYSTEM REMAINS SUPPRESSED S OF THE FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
CEILING WILL BE TOUGH TO CALL THIS MORNING AS THEY TEETER ON THE
LOW END OF IFR. VISIBILITY IS ALSO ON THE EDGE OF CATEGORIES. AT
GRI...TEETERING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS MORNING...WHILE EAR WILL
BE ON THE CUSP MVFR/IFR. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME VERY LIGHT
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AS WELL. MORE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE. WE COULD GET SOME FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT...TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADP
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
552 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS AMPLIFYING. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A
STRONG TROUGH MOVES ON SHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. AT THE SURFACE...WE REMAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS WE ARE SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS AND
SOME FOG. THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS WELL WEST OF THE CWA. BECAUSE
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS SO FAR WEST...I HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF
OUR FOG ADVISORY...RELEGATED TO OUR 3 FARTHEST WEST COUNTIES...AND
THIS MAY IN ITSELF BE A VERY CHEAP FOG ADVISORY...WHERE IT IS
STARTING TO LOOK MORE DOUBTFUL THAT EVEN THESE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE
DENSE FOG. WE ARE ACTUALLY GETTING LOWER VISIBILITY IN OUR
SOUTH...AS MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH OCCURS. THE CLOSEST
DENSE FOG IS IN IMPERIAL AND GOODLAND...STILL A FAIR DISTANCE AWAY.
THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS MODEL FOR THE MOST PART INTO THE
AFTERNOON. I WENT CLOSER TO THE ADJECEBC SOLUTION FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...CONSIDERING ITS STRONGER SHOWING RECENTLY...ALTHOUGH I DID
BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE THAN WHAT THIS SOLUTION ORIGINALLY
HAD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. WE SHOULD REMAIN SOCKED WITHIN STRATUS
FOR THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. MORE DRIZZLE AND FOG IS IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS REVEAL LIGHT QPF TONIGHT...EVEN THE
ECMWF. THE PROBLEM WILL BE WITH THE DEPTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. THIS IS A LIMITING FACTOR...BUT WITH SO MUCH AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS WITH LIGHT QPF...I AM INCLINED TO KEEP IN THE
DRIZZLE...BUT INTRODUCED IT A BIT LATER...IN THE MID-EVENING. FOG
COULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
STRATUS...BUT ONCE AGAIN...IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL BE WEST OF
THE CWA FOR THE MOST PART.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
PATTERN: THE FLOW WILL BE VERY COMPLEX AND AT TIMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE MULTI-DAY ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL/ERN USA WITH
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER CANADA...AND A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE E
PAC. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY WE HAVE SEEN FOR
MUCH-NEEDED MEANINGFUL PRECIP SINCE OCT 22ND. SOME OF IT COULD BE OF
THE WINTRY VARIETY.
HIGHLY RECOMMEND THE 1ST PARAGRAPH OF THE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISC
/PMDHMD/ FROM WPC. IT HAS AN EXCELLENT OVERVIEW OF MODEL TRENDS FOR
THE SYSTEM SUN-MON.
ALOFT: HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO THE ERN USA SAT-SUN AS
THE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE INTO CA HEADS E THRU THE DESERT SW
AND EJECTS NE ACROSS KS SUN-MON. A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION TUE-THU WITH ANOTHER TROF MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW.
SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE ERN USA SAT WITH GRADUAL
EASTWARD PROGRESSION SUN-MON. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS
WAY THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W WILL MOVE THRU HERE SUN WITH THE LEE-
SIDE LOW OVER CO MERGING WITH THE FRONT...MOVING ACROSS KS SUN NIGHT
AND INTO IA MON. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TUE AND SINKS INTO THE
NRN PLAINS WED-THU.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT-SUN OR VERY
CLOSE TO IT. WE CONT TO FCST RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS BOTH SAT AND SUN.
FOR SUN`S RECORDS TO BE BROKEN...TEMPS MUST STAY ABOVE THE RECORDS
THRU 1159 PM AND WE WILL BE COLD ADVECTING SUN EVE.
RECORD WARM LOWS
SAT 12/13 SUN 12/14
GRI 37 - 1896 39 - 1896
HSI 36 - 1921 36 - 1928
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE SAT`S RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN AND MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE FOR SUN`S.
SAT: NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE FROM THU OR FRI. CLOUDY WITH AM FOG/MIST.
AM NOT CONVINCED ON DRZL POTENTIAL. MOISTURE DEPTH CASTS DOUBT SO
DRZL WAS DOWNGRADED TO JUST A "CHANCE".
SUN: LATE DAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER CLOUDY START WITH AM
FOG/MIST. AN FGEN-DRIVEN COMMAHEAD BAND OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER KS
AND LIFT NORTHWARD PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HRS. BOTH THE
EC/GFS INDICATE SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES TURNING SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. SO THUNDER IS NOW IN THE FCST FOR N-CNTRL KS TO COVER
THIS POSSIBILITY.
SUN NIGHT: IT`S A RACE TO SEE HOW FAST THE COLD AIR CAN WRAP INTO
THE COMMAHEAD AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME. SUGGEST EVERYONE
INTERESTED IN THIS POTENTIAL CONT TO MONITOR LATER FCSTS AND PREPARE
FOR PLOWABLE SNOW POSSIBILITY. HIGHEST PROBABLY IS CURRENTLY N AND W
OF THE TRI-CITIES.
FOR NOW MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW EXCEPT THE SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA...
ROUGHLY S OF A LINE FROM OSBORNE KS-YORK NE.
MON: BLUSTERY AND COLDER. POSSIBLY A LITTLE LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW AS
THE LOW DEPARTS WRN IA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TUE: DRY BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS/CLOUD COVER. EC/GFS CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SUBSTANTIAL MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS UNDER
A STRONG 110KT JET.
WED: DRY AND PROBABLY A LOT OF CLOUDS.
WED NIGHT-THU: WE CURRENTLY HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW BUT IT
LOOKS DOUBTFUL BASED ON THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH SUGGESTS THIS
NEXT DESERT SW SYSTEM REMAINS SUPPRESSED S OF THE FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
CEILING WILL BE TOUGH TO CALL THIS MORNING AS THEY TEETER ON THE
LOW END OF IFR. VISIBILITY IS ALSO ON THE EDGE OF CATEGORIES. AT
GRI...TEETERING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS MORNING...WHILE EAR WILL
BE ON THE CUSP MVFR/IFR. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME VERY LIGHT
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AS WELL. MORE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE. WE COULD GET SOME FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT...TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ060-072-
082.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
941 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY PULLING EAST AND LOSING INFLUENCE
ON DAILY WEATHER CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS
THE NORTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS DRIER
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR
TO READINGS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
WINTER NORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM EST FRIDAY...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. STILL THINK CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A DUSTING TO TWO
INCHES LOOKS GOOD.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EST FRIDAY... BROKEN RECORD FORECAST
CONTINUES TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STATIONARY OCCLUSION REMAINING
ATOP OR JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES DROPPING SOUTHWARD
WILL COMBINE TO KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OR PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LESS OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. ALSO INTRODUCED THE CHANCE FOR SOME INTERMITTENT -FZDZ
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE RAP SOUNDING PROFILES
SUGGEST AN UNSATURATED SNOW GROWTH ZONE THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE UPPER PATTERN...TEMPERATURES ALSO GOING
NOWHERE AND NEARLY IDENTICAL TO READINGS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S DURING THE DAY AND SETTLING
BACK INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST FRIDAY...BY SATURDAY MODEL SUITE SHOWING GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT OUR PESKY UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL
EASTWARD SUCH THAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND OVERALL INFLUENCE WILL WANE
OVER TIME. STILL COULD SEE SOME LINGERING NRN MTN FLURRY/SHSN
ACTIVITY HERE AND THERE...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BY AND LARGE BE
LESS THAN TODAY WITH BROADER VALLEYS MAINLY DRY. LIGHT WINDS AND
LACK OF THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES MEAN NO AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES...YOU GUESSED IT...NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST FINALLY BEGINS
TO MAKE INROADS EAST AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY
OFFSHORE. A SOMEWHAT TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS
OFFERED ON DEGREE OF COOLING. POTENTIAL BUST WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN POSSIBLE CLEARING AND FRESH SNOW COVER...SO
WILL LEAN CONSERVATIVELY TOWARD A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE SHOWING
VARIABLE CLOUDS THINNING ONLY SLOWLY AND LOW TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
COLDER THAN TONIGHT...UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S OR SO.
ON SUNDAY DEEP LEVEL RIDGING MAKES FURTHER PROGRESS INTO THE
REGION WITH CONTINUED DRYING THROUGH THE PBL AND INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUN AS UPPER FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC/SUBSIDENT. 850 MB
RESPOND AND RANGE FROM 0C TO +5C EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH A SHALLOW
MIXED LAYER TO ONLY 1500 FEET OR SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT THOSE READINGS WOULD NORMALLY INDICATE WITH MOST SPOTS
TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE 30S. STILL QUITE A NICE DAY THOUGH WITH
THE SUNSHINE BEING WELCOME AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF HIDING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST FRIDAY...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS WEAKLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA. THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS THAT SNOWS SHOWERS WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THE MODELS DIVULGE WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE ECMWF BRINGING A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM THROUGH. THE ECMWF KEEPS SHOWERS IN THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY WHEREAS THE GFS IS QUICKER TO DRY OUT. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER BACK INTO THE AREA WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
LITTLE TO NO ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN WITH FRONT SO AT THIS POINT WE
DONT EXPECT ANY SURGES OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM SITE TO SITE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH BOUTS
OF IFR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AT KMPV. MVFR
CONDITIONS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AT KRUT. IFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AT KMSS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILING WILL OCCUR AT KSLK. AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO JUST SLOWLY MEANDER AROUND THERE WILL BE
SOME SCATTED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER MAINLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. AFTER 18Z THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED SURGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHERN VT SITES. FOR KMSS A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS BROUGHT IN A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITIES
AND CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS WITH
PERIODS OF IFR VIS ARE FZDZ AND SNOW FAIL THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SCATTERED...BUT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
12Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
06Z SUNDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED.
00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH PERIOD OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
713 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY PULLING EAST AND LOSING INFLUENCE ON DAILY
WEATHER CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS DRIER THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO READINGS OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS...HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY WINTER NORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 632 AM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ADJUSTED HOURLY T/TD DATASETS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS, OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED AS OF 600 AM.
WATCHING SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/SHSN/FLURRIES CONTINUING TO
SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND STILL EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ON AND OFF FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY IN THESE AREAS WITH A GENERAL DUSTING TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED. HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NRN MTNS OF VT. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EST FRIDAY...
BROKEN RECORD FORECAST CONTINUES TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
STATIONARY OCCLUSION REMAINING ATOP OR JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
BUNDLES DROPPING SOUTHWARD WILL COMBINE TO KEEP SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LESS
OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. ALSO INTRODUCED THE
CHANCE FOR SOME INTERMITTENT -FZDZ ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
WHERE RAP SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST AN UNSATURATED SNOW GROWTH
ZONE THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE UPPER
PATTERN...TEMPERATURES ALSO GOING NOWHERE AND NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
READINGS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S DURING THE DAY AND SETTLING BACK INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST FRIDAY...BY SATURDAY MODEL SUITE SHOWING GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT OUR PESKY UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL
EASTWARD SUCH THAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND OVERALL INFLUENCE WILL WANE
OVER TIME. STILL COULD SEE SOME LINGERING NRN MTN FLURRY/SHSN
ACTIVITY HERE AND THERE...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BY AND LARGE BE
LESS THAN TODAY WITH BROADER VALLEYS MAINLY DRY. LIGHT WINDS AND
LACK OF THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES MEAN NO AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES...YOU GUESSED IT...NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO
MAKE INROADS EAST AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY
OFFSHORE. A SOMEWHAT TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS
OFFERED ON DEGREE OF COOLING. POTENTIAL BUST WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN POSSIBLE CLEARING AND FRESH SNOW COVER...SO WILL
LEAN CONSERVATIVELY TOWARD A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE SHOWING VARIABLE
CLOUDS THINNING ONLY SLOWLY AND LOW TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COLDER
THAN TONIGHT...UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S OR SO.
ON SUNDAY DEEP LEVEL RIDGING MAKES FURTHER PROGRESS INTO THE REGION
WITH CONTINUED DRYING THROUGH THE PBL AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN
AS UPPER FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC/SUBSIDENT. 850 MB RESPOND AND
RANGE FROM 0C TO +5C EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER
TO ONLY 1500 FEET OR SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN WHAT
THOSE READINGS WOULD NORMALLY INDICATE WITH MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT
ONLY IN THE 30S. STILL QUITE A NICE DAY THOUGH WITH THE SUNSHINE
BEING WELCOME AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF HIDING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST FRIDAY...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS WEAKLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA. THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS THAT SNOWS SHOWERS WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THE MODELS DIVULGE WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE ECMWF BRINGING A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM THROUGH. THE ECMWF KEEPS SHOWERS IN THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY WHEREAS THE GFS IS QUICKER TO DRY OUT. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER BACK INTO THE AREA WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
LITTLE TO NO ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN WITH FRONT SO AT THIS POINT WE
DONT EXPECT ANY SURGES OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM SITE TO SITE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH BOUTS
OF IFR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AT KMPV. MVFR
CONDITIONS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AT KRUT. IFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AT KMSS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILING WILL OCCUR AT KSLK. AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO JUST SLOWLY MEANDER AROUND THERE WILL BE
SOME SCATTED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER MAINLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. AFTER 18Z THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED SURGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHERN VT SITES. FOR KMSS A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS BROUGHT IN A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITIES
AND CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS WITH
PERIODS OF IFR VIS ARE FZDZ AND SNOW FAIL THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SCATTERED...BUT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
12Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
06Z SUNDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED.
00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH PERIOD OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
632 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY PULLING EAST AND LOSING INFLUENCE ON DAILY
WEATHER CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS DRIER THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO READINGS OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS...HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY WINTER NORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 632 AM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ADJUSTED HOURLY T/TD DATASETS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS, OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED AS OF 600 AM.
WATCHING SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/SHSN/FLURRIES CONTINUING TO
SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND STILL EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ON AND OFF FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY IN THESE AREAS WITH A GENERAL DUSTING TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED. HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NRN MTNS OF VT. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EST FRIDAY...
BROKEN RECORD FORECAST CONTINUES TODAY INTOTONIGHT WITH
STATIONARY OCCLUSION REMAINING ATOP OR JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
BUNDLES DROPPING SOUTHWARD WILL COMBINE TO KEEP SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LESS
OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. ALSO INTRODUCED THE
CHANCE FOR SOME INTERMITTENT -FZDZ ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
WHERE RAP SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST AN UNSATURATED SNOW GROWTH
ZONE THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE UPPER
PATTERN...TEMPERATURES ALSO GOING NOWHERE AND NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
READINGS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S DURING THE DAY AND SETTLING BACK INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST FRIDAY...BY SATURDAY MODEL SUITE SHOWING GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT OUR PESKY UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL
EASTWARD SUCH THAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND OVERALL INFLUENCE WILL WANE
OVER TIME. STILL COULD SEE SOME LINGERING NRN MTN FLURRY/SHSN
ACTIVITY HERE AND THERE...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BY AND LARGE BE
LESS THAN TODAY WITH BROADER VALLEYS MAINLY DRY. LIGHT WINDS AND
LACK OF THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES MEAN NO AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES...YOU GUESSED IT...NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO
MAKE INROADS EAST AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY
OFFSHORE. A SOMEWHAT TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS
OFFERED ON DEGREE OF COOLING. POTENTIAL BUST WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN POSSIBLE CLEARING AND FRESH SNOW COVER...SO WILL
LEAN CONSERVATIVELY TOWARD A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE SHOWING VARIABLE
CLOUDS THINNING ONLY SLOWLY AND LOW TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COLDER
THAN TONIGHT...UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S OR SO.
ON SUNDAY DEEP LEVEL RIDGING MAKES FURTHER PROGRESS INTO THE REGION
WITH CONTINUED DRYING THROUGH THE PBL AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN
AS UPPER FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC/SUBSIDENT. 850 MB RESPOND AND
RANGE FROM 0C TO +5C EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER
TO ONLY 1500 FEET OR SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN WHAT
THOSE READINGS WOULD NORMALLY INDICATE WITH MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT
ONLY IN THE 30S. STILL QUITE A NICE DAY THOUGH WITH THE SUNSHINE
BEING WELCOME AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF HIDING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST FRIDAY...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS WEAKLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA. THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS THAT SNOWS SHOWERS WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THE MODELS DIVULGE WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE ECMWF BRINGING A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM THROUGH. THE ECMWF KEEPS SHOWERS IN THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY WHEREAS THE GFS IS QUICKER TO DRY OUT. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER BACK INTO THE AREA WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
LITTLE TO NO ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN WITH FRONT SO AT THIS POINT WE
DONT EXPECT ANY SURGES OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM SITE TO SITE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH BOUTS
OF IFR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AT KMPV. MVFR
CONDITIONS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AT KRUT. IFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AT KMSS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILING WILL OCCUR AT KSLK. AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO JUST SLOWLY MEANDER AROUND THERE WILL BE
SOME SCATTED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER MAINLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. AFTER 18Z THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED SURGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHERN VT SITES. FOR KMSS
THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE CONTINUES TO BE UNSATURATED SO I CARRIED FZDZ
THROUGH 09Z AS THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT MISTY FREEZING PRECIP.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z FRIDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SCATTERED...BUT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
12Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
06Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED.
12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR AND IFR IN SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
622 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AND WEAKEN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL STILL PRODUCE A LITTLE VERY LIGHT
SNOW OR EVEN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS WILL FINALLY END BY
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER
LAKES REGION WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TO ABOVE AVERAGE ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME VERY WEAK
RETURNS ACROSS WESTERN NY INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES FALLING IN THE FORM
OF VERY FINE GRAINS SOMETIMES CALLED SNIZZLE. A MORE PERSISTENT AREA
OF RETURNS IS STILL FOUND ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND WESTERN CATTARAUGUS
COUNTY IN WHAT REMAINS OF THE OLD DEFORMATION AXIS FROM YESTERDAY.
THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY DISPATCH AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE THAT
SOME OF THIS IS FALLING AS FREEZING DRIZZLE. BUFKIT POINT SOUNDINGS
BEAR THIS OUT WITH MOISTURE BECOMING TOO SHALLOW AND WARM TO ALLOW
FOR ICE NUCLEI IN THE CLOUD LAYER. LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE NAM AND HRRR SUGGEST THIS AREA OF PERSISTENT LIGHT
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE...AND WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH
MID MORNING TO COVER THE LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POTENTIAL
FOR SLICK SPOTS DURING THE MORNING DRIVE ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXPECT A MAINLY DRY MORNING WITH
JUST A FEW VERY LIGHT FLURRIES. A FEW PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS WELL...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN TOO LIGHT
AND ISOLATED TO HAVE ANY MEANINGFUL IMPACT.
THE VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING
ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY BEING STRIPPED AWAY FROM WEST TO
EAST. THE REMAINING WEAK DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER WILL BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE VERY LIGHT
SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY END.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ONE LAST SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTH AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW TODAY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM
MIDDAY THOUGH THE AFTERNOON. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT ANY LAKE EFFECT SOUTHEAST OF EITHER LAKE EXCEPT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES OF NO CONSEQUENCE.
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY. MOISTURE WILL BECOME QUITE SHALLOW AGAIN...SO THERE MAY BE
SOME LIMITED CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO MIX IN AS WELL.
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL INVERSION. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS STILL
UPSTREAM...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE PATTERN RECOGNITION OF WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW IN DECEMBER DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY CLEARING
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS DOMINATING IN MOST AREAS.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO REACH THE LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL PREVENT MUCH
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH MID 20S IN MOST AREAS AND UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS AFFECTED THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL FINALLY BE EXITING THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...WE MAY STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THANKS TO PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST
ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT...ITSELF THE
PRODUCT OF INCREASING RIDGING ALOFT. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE DRYING
ALOFT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
LINGER...HOWEVER SHOULD ANY OCCUR THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE FOUND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE THE MOISTURE-BEARING FETCH WILL BE
GREATEST. WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE SHALLOW NATURE OF
THE MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RENDER THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH LAYER VERY DRY...SUGGESTING P-TYPE WILL BE MAINLY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES WILL RUNNING IN THE 20S.
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION.
NONETHELESS...WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION AS GENERAL FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S...WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY...CLOSER TO THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH
FLOW IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING STUBBORNLY OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST...CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL IN SPITE OF WARMING ALOFT...PARTICULARLY SHOULD
EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS...STILL TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION...REMAIN IN
PLACE AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S SUNDAY WITH LOW TO MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE A DRY START TO THE WEEK MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. THE
PERSISTENT SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
AND AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RAIN-SNOW LINE AND WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF BOTH TYPES GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES INHERENT THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN NEAR AVERAGE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS WE SHOULD FINALLY REALIZE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM TO CHASE AWAY THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR AND LOW CLOUDS.
LOOKING LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW POISED TO DROP DOWN OUT OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY USHER IN A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK...THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS MAY BRIEFLY DROP VSBY DOWN TO MVFR IN A
FEW SPOTS. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ALSO MIX IN AT TIMES...MAINLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
TONIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY MAY DROP VSBY TO MVFR BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A PERSISTENT LOW
STRATUS DECK.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING WINDS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
850 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... PASSING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY... BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 850 AM FRIDAY...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THAT HELPED PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC
CIRRUS TOWARD THE TRIAD AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. THE RAP PLAN VIEW LAYER MOISTURE PRODUCTS SEEMED TO
BE DEPICTING THE TREND OF THESE CLOUDS FAIRLY WELL. AS THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE PASSES THROUGH AS IT IS CURRENTLY...AND AS FORECAST BY THE
RAP...THE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD THE TRIAD SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE.
AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT
AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL ALSO WANE AS THE CLOUDS MOVE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE THE WAVE. AREA UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW
WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE TO AROUND 25KT...AND FORECAST 925MB WINDS
TO 20KT ALONG WITH 850MB TO 30KT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTINESS OF
THE WINDS WITH MIXING...WITH RAP SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING. MORNING AND FORECAST
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS NEARER THE HIGHER MAV MOS
GUIDANCE...AND WILL WATCH TRENDS DURING THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY
RAISE MAXES A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THE PLANNED LATE-MORNING UPDATE. -DJF
BY TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS...THIS
TIME RESULTING FROM ADVECTION OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER ONTARIO.
BUT AGAIN... ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THIN
AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF NC WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND SUBSIDENCE PERSISTING ALOFT. WITH WINDS GOING CALM (OR NEARLY
SO) WITH GOOD DECOUPLING AND SCANT CLOUDINESS... WILL GO A BIT BELOW
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... 27-31.
FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT: MORE OF THE SAME. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER WRN KY/TN
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST... BANKING UP AGAINST THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH SAT NIGHT... AND WITH THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST HAVING DRIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE... THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL STEADILY SLACKEN. AGAIN EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDS ON SAT. THE MIXED LAYER
GETS EVEN SHALLOWER WITH ONGOING SINKING OF THE VERY WARM LAYER JUST
OFF THE SURFACE... AND THE THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS OF 53-59. HAVE STAYED JUST UNDER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ONCE
AGAIN WITH EXPECTATIONS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS SAT NIGHT
28-33. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
A DEEP HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
INCLUDING CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. NORMALLY THIS PATTERN WOULD SIGNAL A WARMING TREND BUT CLEAR
SKIES ON SUNDAY WILL BE REPLACED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON
MONDAY AND MAX TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY FALL A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY
ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH. EXPECT MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WITH MONDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY. LOWS
WILL MODERATE FROM NEAR FREEZING ON MONDAY MORNING TO THE MIDDLE 30S
BY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
SLOWER TIMING IN THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE WEST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM
ALREADY HAD BAD DYNAMICS WITH IT AND NOW DIURNAL TIMING DOES NOT
LOOK VERY FAVORABLE AS IT IS NOW PROGGED TO COME THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT IS THAT BOTH MODELS ARE NOW
VERY SPARSE WITH THE PRECIPIATION WITH THE RANGE FROM NONE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS NOT GREAT AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AS THE 500 MB PATTERN IS VERY
ZONAL. WITH THE LATER TIMING EXPECT TEMPS ON TUESDAY TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SKY CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND TEMPS
TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S WITH GOOD INSOLATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A SMALL AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS ACTUALLY WILL INITIATE SOME DEEPER
LAYER COLD AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...MAINLY LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 850 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A STAGNANT
PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY... WITH LOW
PRESSURE HOLDING OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL MISS VALLEY AND
WRN OH VALLEY. LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WEST AND NW WILL KEEP DRY AND
STABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANY SKY
COVER WILL BE RESTRICTED TO A FEW MID-CLOUDS AND MOSTLY HIGH THIN
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBYS.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SAT: VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... A RETURN FLOW AND RISING MOISTURE WILL BRING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TUE... ALTHOUGH CIGS SHOULD BE VFR.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DJF/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...DJF/HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
842 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG EXTENDING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
MORNING UPDATE WILL ADDRESS THIS AND KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG GOING
UNTIL MID-DAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST CLOUD
COVER A BIT TO COMPENSATE FOR THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
AREAS OF FOG PERSIST ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. VISIBILITIES
VARY FROM ONE HALF TO A MILE AT TIMES AND THE PERSISTENT FOG IS
PRODUCING SOME FROST ON ROADS. OTHERWISE HIGH SEMI THIN CLOUDS
COVERING THE WEST AND CENTRAL. STILL LOOKING FOR WARM POSSIBLY
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE...SLICK ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE DUE TO FROST FORMATION...WIDESPREAD
FOG ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ALTHOUGH NOT DENSE...THE TIMING
OF THE FOG/STRATUS ERODING TODAY AND ITS EFFECT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...NEAR RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED...VERY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS TRANQUIL IN TERMS OF
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS OR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE FOG ALONG
WITH THE FROST AND RESULTANT SLIPPERY ROADS AND SIDEWALKS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP IS BEING OVERSHADOWED BY SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS/STRATUS
CLOUDS ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR MILES
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR CIG AND VSBY
FORECAST SHOW THIS AREA MAINLY REMAINING IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN SHRINKING/ERODING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN
THIS OCCURS...AND CURRENT TIMING OF PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE 925MB TEMPS NEARLY THE SAME TODAY AS
THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH VERY SHALLOW MIXING AT
BEST. 24HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS AT DICKINSON AND HETTINGER THIS
MORNING ARE NEARLY THE SAME OR A BIT COOLER THAN AT THE SAME TIME
YESTERDAY. WILL TREND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE
THURSDAY. DICKINSON REMAINS ON TRACK TO JUST BREAK ITS RECORD OF
54F SET BACK IN 1924...AS TODAYS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH 55F.
ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE WARMER BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS FOG MAY MAKE A RETURN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
MODELS BRING AN H500 TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US SATURDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY BY TUESDAY AND THEN EVENTUALLY
FORM A REX BLOCK BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. DURING THIS PROCESS A COLD
FRONT WILL INITIALLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT BRINGING SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY. COOLER AIR
WILL FLOW THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY SETTING UP A
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ONE VERSION...THE CANADIAN GEM...SETS UP THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION THEN FORMS ACROSS THIS AREA AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW SWINGS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE GEM IS ALSO
SLOWER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF AND APPEARS TO BE THE PREFERRED
TREND. WILL SPREAD A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
ON MONDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
THE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT REX BLOCK RESULTS IN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
REGION WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY KEEP MORE
CLOUDS BUT LITTLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KJMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z. CIGS/VSBYS
WILL MOST LIKELY RETURN TO MVFR/LOW VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY
ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FOG AT KBIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS BUT CIGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR. VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
642 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
AREAS OF FOG PERSIST ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. VISIBILITIES
VARY FROM ONE HALF TO A MILE AT TIMES AND THE PERSISTENT FOG IS
PRODUCING SOME FROST ON ROADS. OTHERWISE HIGH SEMI THIN CLOUDS
COVERING THE WEST AND CENTRAL. STILL LOOKING FOR WARM POSSIBLY
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE...SLICK ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE DUE TO FROST FORMATION...WIDESPREAD
FOG ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ALTHOUGH NOT DENSE...THE TIMING
OF THE FOG/STRATUS ERODING TODAY AND ITS EFFECT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...NEAR RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED...VERY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS TRANQUIL IN TERMS OF
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS OR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE FOG ALONG
WITH THE FROST AND RESULTANT SLIPPERY ROADS AND SIDEWALKS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP IS BEING OVERSHADOWED BY SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS/STRATUS
CLOUDS ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR MILES
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR CIG AND VSBY
FORECAST SHOW THIS AREA MAINLY REMAINING IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN SHRINKING/ERODING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN
THIS OCCURS...AND CURRENT TIMING OF PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE 925MB TEMPS NEARLY THE SAME TODAY AS
THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH VERY SHALLOW MIXING AT
BEST. 24HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS AT DICKINSON AND HETTINGER THIS
MORNING ARE NEARLY THE SAME OR A BIT COOLER THAN AT THE SAME TIME
YESTERDAY. WILL TREND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE
THURSDAY. DICKINSON REMAINS ON TRACK TO JUST BREAK ITS RECORD OF
54F SET BACK IN 1924...AS TODAYS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH 55F.
ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE WARMER BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS FOG MAY MAKE A RETURN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
MODELS BRING AN H500 TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US SATURDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY BY TUESDAY AND THEN EVENTUALLY
FORM A REX BLOCK BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. DURING THIS PROCESS A COLD
FRONT WILL INITIALLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT BRINGING SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY. COOLER AIR
WILL FLOW THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY SETTING UP A
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ONE VERSION...THE CANADIAN GEM...SETS UP THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION THEN FORMS ACROSS THIS AREA AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW SWINGS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE GEM IS ALSO
SLOWER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF AND APPEARS TO BE THE PREFERRED
TREND. WILL SPREAD A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
ON MONDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
THE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT REX BLOCK RESULTS IN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
REGION WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY KEEP MORE
CLOUDS BUT LITTLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KJMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z. CIGS/VSBYS
WILL MOST LIKELY RETURN TO MVFR/LOW VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY
ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FOG AT KBIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS BUT CIGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR. VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BISMARCK ND
429 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE...SLICK ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE DUE TO FROST FORMATION...WIDESPREAD
FOG ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ALTHOUGH NOT DENSE...THE TIMING
OF THE FOG/STRATUS ERODING TODAY AND ITS EFFECT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...NEAR RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED...VERY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS TRANQUIL IN TERMS OF
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS OR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE FOG ALONG
WITH THE FROST AND RESULTANT SLIPPERY ROADS AND SIDEWALKS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP IS BEING OVERSHADOWED BY SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS/STRATUS
CLOUDS ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR MILES
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR CIG AND VSBY
FORECAST SHOW THIS AREA MAINLY REMAINING IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN SHRINKING/ERODING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN
THIS OCCURS...AND CURRENT TIMING OF PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE 925MB TEMPS NEARLY THE SAME TODAY AS
THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH VERY SHALLOW MIXING AT
BEST. 24HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS AT DICKINSON AND HETTINGER THIS
MORNING ARE NEARLY THE SAME OR A BIT COOLER THAN AT THE SAME TIME
YESTERDAY. WILL TREND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE
THURSDAY. DICKINSON REMAINS ON TRACK TO JUST BREAK ITS RECORD OF
54F SET BACK IN 1924...AS TODAYS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH 55F.
ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE WARMER BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS FOG MAY MAKE A RETURN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
MODELS BRING AN H500 TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US SATURDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY BY TUESDAY AND THEN EVENTUALLY
FORM A REX BLOCK BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. DURING THIS PROCESS A COLD
FRONT WILL INITIALLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT BRINGING SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY. COOLER AIR
WILL FLOW THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY SETTING UP A
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ONE VERSION...THE CANADIAN GEM...SETS UP THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION THEN FORMS ACROSS THIS AREA AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW SWINGS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE GEM IS ALSO
SLOWER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF AND APPEARS TO BE THE PREFERRED
TREND. WILL SPREAD A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
ON MONDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
THE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT REX BLOCK RESULTS IN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
REGION WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY KEEP MORE
CLOUDS BUT LITTLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
IFR CIGS AT KJMS ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 18Z. CIGS WILL MOST LIKELY RETURN TO MVFR/LOW VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON BUT MAY ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR AFTER
00Z SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FOG AT KBIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS BUT CIGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR. VFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA HAS BEEN SLOWLY
EXPANDING THIS MORNING WITH SOME SPOTTY PATCHES ALSO DEVELOPING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND LATEST RAP THAT THIS
MAY CONTINUE TO FILL IN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT THROUGH DAYBREAK AS IT
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...WILL HEDGE A BIT
AND ALLOW FOR SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST TODAY. THE LATEST RAP IS INDICATING THAT SOME OF THE
STRATUS CURRENTLY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN COULD WORK ITS
WAY DOWN INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...THINK THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS WILL SLOW ONCE
THE SUN COMES UP SO WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SUN AND AIRMASS
MODIFICATION...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY A BIT WARMER THAN THURSDAY. WILL
TREND TEMPS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH TO THE MID 40S FAR SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE IT SLOWLY FLATTENS OUT. THE MODELS ARE
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE ADVECTING SOME HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS MOISTURE IS
FAIRLY SHALLOW THOUGH...GENERALLY AOB 900 MB. AS IS TYPICAL..THE
NAM IS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE GFS WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SO SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAST THE CLOUDS WILL WORK
THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW...THE CLOUDS ADVANCING EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS ARE STILL TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
GIVEN ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION...WOULD THINK THESE CLOUDS MAY
TAKE A WHILE TO REACH OUR FA. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE ALSO
SOME INDICATIONS THAT STRATUS WILL SAG DOWN FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE CLOUD
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL HANDLE IT WITH A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE AN AFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES AND WE ARE LIKELY TOO COLD TONIGHT/WARM ON SATURDAY
IF A SOLID DECK MOVES IN FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL SLOWLY BUMP
UP TO CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS EVEN THE GFS IS
PRETTY BULLISH ON THE LOW CLOUDS BY THEN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY QPF. WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST THOUGH AS THE DEPTH OF THE
SATURATED LAYER BELOW 2000 FEET REMAINS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND WE SEEM
TO BE LACKING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL FORCING/VERTICAL
MOTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE NEW WEEK BEGINS...ATTENTION WILL FOCUS ON THE TROUGH
INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. AS A JET
STREAK AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES ASHORE...EVENTUALLY A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
LOW MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS. HOWEVER...THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SOURCE OF INCONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS...WHICH IS NOT ESPECIALLY SURPRISING GIVEN THE VARIABLES
GOING INTO ITS DEVELOPMENT. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE FORECAST IS THAT
12Z RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER TIMING AND PLACEMENT
AGREEMENT...WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERNS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW...AND HOW QUICKLY IT DEGENERATES INTO AN OPEN WAVE. A
CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND IN THE MODELS HAS ENDED UP WITH THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEARING TO IMPACT THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
GREATEST MOISTURE AND FORCING. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN SIMILAR
CATEGORIES (20-40 PERCENT) BUT FOCUSED A LITTLE GREATER ON THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...ADVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ONCE THE LOW PASSES...COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE WILL PROVIDE FOR A RETURN TO COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS COLD
ADVECTION...POSSIBLY GIVEN THE SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE NORTH...DOES NOT
APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS. THUS...AFTER A
FEW DAYS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ONLY APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO LVL MOISTURE BAND EXTENDS FROM SE IN EWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OH.
IFR CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS
BAND AS IT MOVES TO THE ESE. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
KCVG/KLUK BY LATE MORNING AND KILN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
BAND OF LO LVL MOISTURE ACRS NORTHERN OHIO IS SLOWLY PUSHING S AND
SHOULD REACH THE KCMH/KLUK AREA AROUND MID MORNING PRODUCING CIGS
IN THE LOWER END OF MVFR. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AREA LOCATED TO OUR SW THIS MORNING
SHOULD DRAFT SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT AND FROM
THE WEST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT AND THE DEPTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HAVE HELD OFF INTRODUCING MVFR/IFR CIGS UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE HIGHER.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HAYDU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
554 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SAME OLD STORY WITH THE FORECAST TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED OVER THE EASTERN CWA. AS EXPECTED...STRATUS CLOUDS
HAVE EXPANDED BACK TO THE WEST INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH...WESTWARD PROGRESSION IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME WHEN CLOUDS REACHED BACK AS FAR WEST AS THE MISSOURI
RIVER. THIS MAY MEAN A QUICKER CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...BUT STILL HAVE A FEW HOURS TO GO BEFORE WESTWARD EXPANSION
STOPS. HAVE BEEN CLOSELY FOLLOWING 950 MB RH FIELDS AND ESPECIALLY
THE HRRR LOW LEVEL CLOUD PRODUCT...WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING
TREMENDOUSLY DURING THIS STRATUS EVENT. THE HRRR NAILED YESTERDAYS
EROSION PATTERN WHICH FIRST CLEARED OUT FSD CWA THEN SHIFTED IT
NORTH TO PARTS OF NORTHEAST SD. IT IS ONCE AGAIN SHOWING SOMETHING
SIMILAR TO THIS...FIRST CLEARING OUT FSD AREA THEN WORKING INTO
NORTHEAST SD...BUT MAYBE EVEN AN HOUR OR TWO QUICKER TODAY...WHICH
IS BELIEVABLE IF CLOUDS THIS MORNING DO NOT MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS
YESTERDAY. ALSO SEEING WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ONCE AGAIN...BUT VSBY
NOT REALLY TANKING OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA...JUST THE TYPICAL FOGGY
AREAS AROUND SUMMIT AND THE COTEAU REGION. WEB CAMS NOT REVEALING
ANY SUBSTANTIAL DRIZZLE...AND THATS NOT REALLY EXPECTED GIVEN THE
SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER. ALTHOUGH...FOG IS DEPOSITING ON ROADWAYS
WHICH WILL CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS THIS MORNING.
MODELS/SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPS OVER
THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. CENTRAL SD WILL SEE VERY MILD TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
THE SATURATED LAYER BECOMES DEEP ENOUGH BY SATURDAY WHERE DRIZZLE
BECOMES A BIT MORE LIKELY...SO HAVE ADDED THAT INTO THE FORECAST
FOR EASTERN AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TO KEEP EVERYTHING
IN THE LIQUID FORM.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED DIRECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH THE TRACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA. THE MODELS NOW TAKE THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA FARTHER
NORTH TRACKING IT FROM SOUTHERN KS ON SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK PUTS
MOST OF OUR CWA WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF SNOWFALL AS THE GEM...GFS
AND EC ALL SHOW MORE COVERAGE OF QPF. THUS...INCREASED POPS THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE CHANCES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE
INCREASED. WILL HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IF LATER MODEL RUNS SHOW
CONSISTENCY. THIS SYSTEM COULD ALSO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH
IT. OTHERWISE...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THESE MAY BE EVEN
COLDER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IF WE RECEIVE NEW SOME
SNOWFALL. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS WE MIGHT RECEIVE SOME MORE
OVERRUNNING SNOWFALL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
LIFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART
OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LLM CONTINUES TO STREAM UP FROM
THE SOUTH. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BURN THIS OFF BUT DO EXPECT
ABR TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON ONLY TO FOG/CLOUD BACK UP AGAIN
TONIGHT. PIR AND MBG SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND REMAIN VFR.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
624 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO
MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
AM.
KCDS HAS REMAINED MIRED IN DENSE FOG FOR MUCH OF THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND THE MEMPHIS SHERIFF/S OFFICE CONFIRMED DENSE FOG
THERE. HENCE WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE NORTHEAST ZONES. CALLS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH INCLUDING TO THE DICKENS AND ASPERMONT SHERIFF OFFICES
REVEALED ONLY LIGHT FOG THERE...SO WE HAVE OMITTED THEM FROM THE
ADVISORY. THE DENSITY OF THE FOG UP ON THE CAPROCK HAS VARIED
QUITE A BIT...BUT AT LEAST SOME SITES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CWA
CONTINUE TO REPORT OCCASIONAL DENSE FOG. GIVEN THIS AND THE NEARLY
SATURATED CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WOULD EXPECTED AT LEAST AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
CAPROCK AND WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 16Z.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS BY THE HRRR AND RAP THAT A POCKET OF DENSE
FOG COULD EVEN PERSIST UNTIL 17-18Z ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...AND
A PORTION OF THE ADVISORY MAY EVEN NEED TO BE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY IN
TIME LATER THIS MORNING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014/
AVIATION...
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TERMINALS SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND KPVW AND KLBB SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON...THOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD
PERSIST AT KCDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH POOR FLYING WEATHER RETURNING TO
THE TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014/
SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WERE AGAIN VISITING THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER IN
THE REGION. DENSE FOG WAS NOTED AT KGNC...KHOB AND KCVN...THOUGH AS
OF 09Z ONLY LIGHT FOG /VISIBILITIES AROUND 4 SM/ WAS PRESENT AT KLBB
AND KPVW. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP DO CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND THIS SEEMS VALID GIVEN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WITHIN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT
CLOUD COVER AND FOG COVERAGE IS NOT AS EXTENSIVE IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...THOUGH KCDS HAS BEEN OCCASIONALLY REPORTING DENSE FOG.
GIVEN THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW
/ON THE CAPROCK THROUGH 10 AM/...BUT WILL REASSESS AROUND 6 AM AND
ADJUST IF NEEDED. THE FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT/THIN BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH SUN RETURNING TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA BY
MID-AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY...THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE EXACTLY HOW WARM EACH LOCATION GETS...BUT
MOST SPOTS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
A RELATIVELY NARROW BUT HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH OKLAHOMA TODAY AND THEN
INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WEST TEXAS WEATHER THOUGH
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE LONG NIGHTS
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT. THE MOIST CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD FOR MID-DECEMBER...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S...THOUGH THE NORTHWEST ZONES COULD DIP IN THE 30S.
LONG TERM...
.A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO WEST
TEXAS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK OR SO...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DOUSING MUCH OF CALIFORNIA
WILL BE APPROACHING WEST TEXAS BY LATE SATURDAY. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE FROM NRN NM EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO A RAGGED SQUALL-LINE AS
AN INBOUND PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT FOCUSES THE FORCING. WE HAVE
INCREASED AND EXPANDED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. STRONG WIND SHEAR
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND
SOME HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE ACTIVITY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT
OF PRECIP THOUGH...AS THE DRY SLOT SWIFTLY WORKS IN ACROSS WEST
TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY
AFTERNOON AND IT APPEARS THAT ANY WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY BEHIND THE PACIFIC-
FRONT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL BE
MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS
LATE WEDNESDAY. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL SURROUNDS THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM....BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE
A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RAIN COULD MATERIALIZE CENTERED ON
THURSDAY...AND WE/VE ADDED CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR
MOST OF THE FA. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY
THREATEN THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 68 38 67 41 56 / 0 0 0 50 20
TULIA 66 44 69 47 58 / 0 0 0 60 30
PLAINVIEW 65 45 68 48 59 / 0 0 0 50 30
LEVELLAND 67 43 69 47 59 / 0 0 0 50 20
LUBBOCK 66 47 68 50 61 / 0 0 0 50 20
DENVER CITY 67 44 68 45 59 / 0 0 0 40 20
BROWNFIELD 67 45 69 48 61 / 0 0 0 40 20
CHILDRESS 66 49 67 53 66 / 0 10 10 40 70
SPUR 66 49 68 52 65 / 0 0 10 30 40
ASPERMONT 67 51 69 54 68 / 10 0 10 30 50
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>036-039>041.
&&
$$
23/33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
547 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TERMINALS SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND KPVW AND KLBB SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON...THOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD
PERSIST AT KCDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH POOR FLYING WEATHER RETURNING TO
THE TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014/
SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WERE AGAIN VISITING THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER IN
THE REGION. DENSE FOG WAS NOTED AT KGNC...KHOB AND KCVN...THOUGH AS
OF 09Z ONLY LIGHT FOG /VISIBILITIES AROUND 4 SM/ WAS PRESENT AT KLBB
AND KPVW. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP DO CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND THIS SEEMS VALID GIVEN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WITHIN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT
CLOUD COVER AND FOG COVERAGE IS NOT AS EXTENSIVE IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...THOUGH KCDS HAS BEEN OCCASIONALLY REPORTING DENSE FOG.
GIVEN THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW
/ON THE CAPROCK THROUGH 10 AM/...BUT WILL REASSESS AROUND 6 AM AND
ADJUST IF NEEDED. THE FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT/THIN BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH SUN RETURNING TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA BY
MID-AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY...THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE EXACTLY HOW WARM EACH LOCATION GETS...BUT
MOST SPOTS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
A RELATIVELY NARROW BUT HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH OKLAHOMA TODAY AND THEN
INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WEST TEXAS WEATHER THOUGH
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE LONG NIGHTS
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT. THE MOIST CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD FOR MID-DECEMBER...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S...THOUGH THE NORTHWEST ZONES COULD DIP IN THE 30S.
LONG TERM...
..A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO WEST
TEXAS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK OR SO...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DOUSING MUCH OF CALIFORNIA
WILL BE APPROACHING WEST TEXAS BY LATE SATURDAY. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE FROM NRN NM EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO A RAGGED SQUALL-LINE AS
AN INBOUND PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT FOCUSES THE FORCING. WE HAVE
INCREASED AND EXPANDED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. STRONG WIND SHEAR
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND
SOME HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE ACTIVITY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT
OF PRECIP THOUGH...AS THE DRY SLOT SWIFTLY WORKS IN ACROSS WEST
TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY
AFTERNOON AND IT APPEARS THAT ANY WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY BEHIND THE PACIFIC-
FRONT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL BE
MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS
LATE WEDNESDAY. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL SURROUNDS THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM....BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE
A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RAIN COULD MATERIALIZE CENTERED ON
THURSDAY...AND WE/VE ADDED CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR
MOST OF THE FA. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY
THREATEN THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 68 38 67 41 56 / 0 0 0 50 20
TULIA 66 44 69 47 58 / 0 0 0 60 30
PLAINVIEW 65 45 68 48 59 / 0 0 0 50 30
LEVELLAND 67 43 69 47 59 / 0 0 0 50 20
LUBBOCK 66 47 68 50 61 / 0 0 0 50 20
DENVER CITY 67 44 68 45 59 / 0 0 0 40 20
BROWNFIELD 67 45 69 48 61 / 0 0 0 40 20
CHILDRESS 66 49 67 53 66 / 0 10 10 40 70
SPUR 66 49 68 52 65 / 0 0 10 30 40
ASPERMONT 67 51 69 54 68 / 10 0 10 30 50
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041.
&&
$$
23/33/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
541 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
CALLS TO CLARK...OLMSTED AND GRANT COUNTIES HAVE REVEALED THE MIST
IS CAUSING A BIT MORE OF A PROBLEM THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
REPORTS OF SLIDEOFFS IN BOTH CLARK AND OLMSTED. DOT ROAD
CONDITION MAPS DEPICT PARTIALLY COVERED IN ICE ROADS ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. END TIME OF 16Z IS BASED ON THE ANTICIPATION OF
SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT...RISING AIR TEMPERATURES AND SOLAR
INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUDS WARMING ROAD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE 12.06Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR
KRST SHOWS WINDS OF ABOUT 10 KNOTS JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE
THE GROUND WITH A TREND OF THESE INCREASING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BREAK THE FOG UP...WHICH HAS
BEEN THE TREND IN THE VISIBILITY OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WHERE
IT HAS IMPROVED TO A MILE AND HALF OR MORE AT ALL THE REPORTING
STATIONS IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...PLAN
TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY.
AFTER THAT...THE CONCERN THEN BECOMES WHEN WILL PRECIPITATION
START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
A LOT OF DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BUT HAVING A HARD TIME
SEEING THE FORCING FOR THIS DRIZZLE. THE RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BE
VERY SLOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA...WHICH ONLY ALLOWS FOR WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH ONLY AROUND 1C/12 HR OR LESS OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BE IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER. THIS REALLY IS
NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH OMEGA AND IN FACT...BOTH THE 12.00Z NAM
AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY SHOW SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DOES TRY TO SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UP
GLIDE ON THE 290K SURFACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. BASED ON
THIS...WILL REMOVE THE DRIZZLE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AND LET IT GO AFTER THAT.
THE OTHER CONCERN WITH SUNDAY IS WITH TEMPERATURES. THE 11.12Z
NAEFS IS SHOWING AN AREA OF 850 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 1 AND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE AREA. SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
PERIOD SHOW THE INVERSION HOLDING PRETTY TIGHT...SO MOST OF THIS
WARM AIR WILL REMAIN TRAPPED ALOFT. THE 12.00Z ECMWF AND GEM MIXED
DOWN THE MOST WARM AIR AND PRODUCE LOWER 50S WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE THE GFS HOLDS IT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S. WILL TRY TO HIT THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD HERE WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
THE FORCING FOR WIDESPREADY PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION STARTS TO
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD THEN LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND CUTTING UNDER THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER OCCURRING FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER DURING THE SAME
TIME PERIOD. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO COME IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ENERGY AND TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA WITH THE GFS
SHOWING THIS TO PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS BUT COULD
BE RATHER STRONG. WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN FORCING...STARTED
INCREASING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE 50
TO 60 PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
WILL THEN HAVE 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
MONDAY AND IF PRESENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...EXPECT THAT THESE
WILL HAVE TO GO HIGHER WITH LATER FORECASTS. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD PRIMARILY BE RAIN THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE COLD AIR STARTS TO COME IN ONCE THE SURFACE LOW
PASSES FOR A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD POSSIBLY START TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS PRETTY LOW BY THEN. THE
ECMWF...GFS AND 12.00Z GEM ALL SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT COMES DOWN FROM CANADA WHICH
RAISES CONSIDERABLE DOUBT ON ANY ONE SOLUTION FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK. SO FOR NOW...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH JUST A
VERY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
LOW STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT
LSE AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT RST. ADDITIONALLY...VISIBILITIES HAVE
BEEN STUCK AT MVFR AT LSE AND IFR AT RST. EXPECT THESE VISBILITIES
TO IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...CLIMBING TO
VFR AT LSE AND MVFR AT RST. CEILINGS...ON THE OTHER HAND...MAY NOT
GO ANYWHERE AS A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE. AS WE HEAD INTO
TONIGHT...VISIBILITIES LOOK TO FALL BACK DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...TO IFR AT RST AND MVFR AT RST. THESE COULD FALL
EVEN FURTHER AT RST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
LOWER THAN IFR YET.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT OUR RECORD HIGHS
ARE 52 AT ROCHESTER AND 56 AT LA CROSSE. THESE RECORDS...AS WELL
AS MANY AROUND OTHER SMALLER CITIES / SITES AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA...WERE SET IN 1998. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST HIGHS STAY BELOW
RECORDS...BUT THERE IS SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE ECMWF
THAT SHOWS POTENTIAL TO GET CLOSE TO OR BREAK THE RECORDS.
SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WE COULD STAND A MUCH BETTER CHANCE AT BREAKING THE RECORD WARM
LOWS FOR SUNDAY. ROCHESTER IS 37 SET IN 1928 WHILE LA CROSSE IS 35
SET IN 2011. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE RECORD WARM LOWS IN THE 30S WHILE
THE FORECAST HAS LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-
029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...AJ
CLIMATE...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1206 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
439 AM...EARLY MORNING UPDATE...MADE A LAST MINUTE CHANGE BEFORE
SENDING THE ZONES TO INCLUDE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH
MID MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN CWA. SOME REPORTS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM DVN AS WELL AS A GLAZE IN WALWORTH COUNTY
IN SOUTHERN WI. NO REPORTS OF ANY ICING YET WITH A FEW CALLS TO
NORTHWEST IL AREAS. AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT INTO THE
NORTHWEST CWA...POSSIBLE THE SATURATED LAYER WILL GROW DEEP ENOUGH
FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT IF ANY
DRIZZLE DOES DEVELOP...SOME SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE THE FOG THUS FAR NOT BEING DENSE...IT HAS
ALLOWED FOR A RATHER HEAVY FROST ON MANY SURFACES. CMS
&&
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
335 AM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG...TEMPS...CLOUD COVER AND
THEN DRIZZLE POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS ARE STEADILY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE ALSO SHIFTING A BIT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
GUST BRIEFLY WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. THESE WILL MOVE
INTO INDIANA BY MID MORNING WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.
QUESTION WILL THEN BE WILL THERE BE ANY SCATTERING OR BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG
INVERSION AND EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BE TRAPPED BELOW IT AND UNABLE
TO MIX OUT WITH LOW SUN ANGLE. THUS HAVE GONE CLOUDY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WITH FOG HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY BETWEEN 2SM
AND 5SM MOST AREAS...SO BACKED AWAY FROM THE DENSE FOG MENTION BUT
SOME THICKER FOG UNDER 1SM IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 20S
THIS MORNING.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE TODAY ALONG
WITH THE STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 30S...PROBABLY STAYING IN THE MID 30S
MANY AREAS AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. LOWS BACK IN THE
LOWER 30S TONIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND WITH SOME INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COULD BE A FEW AREAS
OF THICKER FOG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG...
BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY LOW.
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE SLOWLY BUT STEADILY SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID
40S AND LIKELY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S...PERHAPS UPPER 30S
SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE ISN/T TOO
HIGH BUT THE SATURATED LAYER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
335 AM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND THEN PRECIP TIMING/TYPE AND TEMP TRENDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES REGION TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRIVEN ALMOST COMPLETELY
BY ADVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S SUNDAY AS SUGGESTED BY THE MET GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
HOW WARM TEMPS WILL GET IS STILL LOW AND MAINTAINED LOWER 50S FOR
NOW. BUT WITH LITTLE DROP IN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS
LIKELY STAYING IN THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 40S...MONDAY MAY END UP
BEING AS WARM OR WARMER THAN SUNDAY AND HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S THEN AS WELL. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE
BUMPED UP WITH LATER FORECASTS.
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES LARGE ENOUGH NOT TO GET TO FANCY WITH TIMING YET...
BUT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN INTO
MONDAY EVENING. GFS/ECMWF SHOW COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ON GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS. BULK OF THE QPF IS EXITING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES
SO NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH SNOW. TRANSITIONED PRECIP TO A RAIN/
SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY BUT THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIP...REGARDLESS OF
TYPE...COULD END BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. ALSO TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER
WITH TEMPS ON TUESDAY...HOLDING STEADY MIDDAY THEN SLOWLY FALLING
BUT IF TIMING IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE IN THE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THURSDAY FROM THIS DISTANCE. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* IFR CIGS AND IMPROVED VSBY THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT
DETERIORATION BACK TO LIFR CIGS/IFR VIS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRIZZLE/FOG.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS. LITTLE MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE ADVECT WARMER/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG INVERSION...TRAPPING LOW CLOUDS BELOW.
DIURNAL WARMING HAS ALLOWED LIFR CIGS TO LIFT TO IFR AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS LOW
LEVELS SATURATING AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS TO AGAIN DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ASCENT WILL ALSO FAVOR REDEVELOPMENT
OF DRIZZLE...WITH ROUGHLY THE 10-16Z PERIOD FAVORED BY MODELS FOR
LOWEST CONDITIONS. WARMING AND MOISTENING SATURDAY...THOUGH SHOULD
AGAIN SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BACK TO IFR BY LATE MORNING.
WINDS...GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST EAST OF THE SFC RIDGE ACROSS
CHICAGO TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WINDS
TO DECREASE AND BACK TO WEST-SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING/VIS TRENDS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...IFR LIKELY WITH FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...IFR LIKELY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. SOUTH WINDS.
MONDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF RAIN. SOUTH
WINDS.
TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. SOUTHEAST
WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
158 AM CST
A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF MOVING LITTLE BEFORE
DAMPENING AND WEAKENING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL MEAN NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OVER THE LAKE TODAY
TURNING SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD. A STRONGER
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND PHASE WITH THE ORIGINAL LOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THIS WILL INCREASE THOUGH A STABLE PATTERN OVER THE
LAKE WILL HINDER THE WINDS FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG. THE HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE BEHIND THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT PASSAGE LIKELY
TO HAPPEN MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 30 KT ARENA AND THE TIME PERIOD WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE GALES.
IN ADDITION...GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER THE LAKE AS
DEW POINTS NEAR AND TOP THE WATER TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THIS FOG
COULD END UP BEING DENSE.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1152 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
After a period of clear skies last night, clouds have spread back
across central Illinois this morning. The 12z KILX upper air
sounding showed a 2000-foot saturated layer below 850mb. This
layer is considerably thicker than just 24 hours ago, so potential
for clearing today is slim at best. 12z NAM forecast soundings
show moisture remaining trapped beneath the strong inversion
throughout the day, while HRRR indicates overcast conditions as
well. Based on current satellite imagery that shows breaks in the
overcast south of St. Louis and across far southern Illinois, will
have to monitor the SE KILX CWA for potential breaks this
afternoon. Otherwise it will be a cloudy day across the area. Due
to the clouds and only minimal WAA beneath the surface ridge axis,
have lowered afternoon highs into the middle to upper 30s. Warmest
readings in the lower 40s will be found across the SW CWA around
Jacksonville where WAA will be strongest.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
Satellite imagery and surface observations show a region of low
overcast skies spreading eastward across central IL early this
morning as warm and moist southwesterly flow moves into the area
ahead of the strong low moving through the Southwest. This will
allow high temperatures to increase several degrees today compared
with Thursday, but the extensive cloud cover may hold them down a
few degrees from previous forecast expectations. Expecting
temperatures around 40 degrees most locations. Surface winds will
remain light from the SW today as pressure gradients remain weak in
the vicinity of high pressure centered over the Ohio River Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
Clouds remain a bit of a problem...but most models have them
expanding back over Central Illinois later this evening. Winds
becoming more southerly on the back side of this ridge over the
course of the day, resulting in the slow warm up of the region for
the weekend. Overnight lows only dropping into the 30s...and
Saturday warmer in the upper 40s/near 50. Soundings start to look
more cloudy throughout the weekend, underneath the high pressure in
advance of the approaching storm system. However, forecast
soundings slowly lose the strength of the inversion into Sunday
afternoon, and may need to consider some breaks in the clouds.
Whether from sunshine or aggressive sfc WAA, temps on Sunday
expected to climb into the 50s.
Precip chances return late in the weekend...Sunday night...and into
the first of the work week. Models beginning to resemble one
another with the progression of the upper trof and the surface
system overall, although the NAM is about 6 hrs behind the GFS and
ECMWF. In addition, SuperBlend holding on to pops way too long into
Tuesday. Would pull that entirely but lack of continuity with this
systems forecast and the NAM running slower on approach...will leave
the pops in for Tuesday but keep them low. Tuesday night was
removed altogether. Best chances for rain remain Monday and Monday
night, now easily in the likely category. Forecast confidence
completely disintegrates Wednesday as the pattern shift after
Mondays system lacks any kind of similarity btwn the longer range
models. GFS is showing some ridging at h5 with the low exiting to
the east... and the ECMWF is almost northwesterly flow, with another
impulse following into the trof of the prev system. Keeping pops
very low for Wed night-Thur night until some consensus is reached.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
Latest surface observations indicate IFR ceilings along/northeast
of a KBMI to KCMI line, with MVFR conditions noted elsewhere around
central Illinois. Skies have cleared further southwest in the St.
Louis area and will have to keep an eye on satellite trends to see
if breaks in the overcast can spread northward toward KSPI/KDEC
this afternoon. For now will leave those sites at MVFR, while
gradually raising both KBMI and KCMI to MVFR after 20z. Low clouds
and haze will prevail across the area this evening as airmass
remains stagnant. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance both
suggest areas of fog developing as the night progresses, so have
lowered visbys to between 2 and 4sm accordingly. Will maintain
MVFR ceilings through the night at all sites except KBMI, where
IFR will return. After that, the low overcast/fog will persist
through 18z Sat.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1016 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
439 AM...EARLY MORNING UPDATE...MADE A LAST MINUTE CHANGE BEFORE
SENDING THE ZONES TO INCLUDE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH
MID MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN CWA. SOME REPORTS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM DVN AS WELL AS A GLAZE IN WALWORTH COUNTY
IN SOUTHERN WI. NO REPORTS OF ANY ICING YET WITH A FEW CALLS TO
NORTHWEST IL AREAS. AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT INTO THE
NORTHWEST CWA...POSSIBLE THE SATURATED LAYER WILL GROW DEEP ENOUGH
FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT IF ANY
DRIZZLE DOES DEVELOP...SOME SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE THE FOG THUS FAR NOT BEING DENSE...IT HAS
ALLOWED FOR A RATHER HEAVY FROST ON MANY SURFACES. CMS
&&
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
335 AM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG...TEMPS...CLOUD COVER AND
THEN DRIZZLE POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS ARE STEADILY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE ALSO SHIFTING A BIT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
GUST BRIEFLY WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. THESE WILL MOVE
INTO INDIANA BY MID MORNING WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.
QUESTION WILL THEN BE WILL THERE BE ANY SCATTERING OR BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG
INVERSION AND EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BE TRAPPED BELOW IT AND UNABLE
TO MIX OUT WITH LOW SUN ANGLE. THUS HAVE GONE CLOUDY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WITH FOG HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY BETWEEN 2SM
AND 5SM MOST AREAS...SO BACKED AWAY FROM THE DENSE FOG MENTION BUT
SOME THICKER FOG UNDER 1SM IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 20S
THIS MORNING.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE TODAY ALONG
WITH THE STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 30S...PROBABLY STAYING IN THE MID 30S
MANY AREAS AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. LOWS BACK IN THE
LOWER 30S TONIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND WITH SOME INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COULD BE A FEW AREAS
OF THICKER FOG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG...
BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY LOW.
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE SLOWLY BUT STEADILY SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID
40S AND LIKELY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S...PERHAPS UPPER 30S
SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE ISN/T TOO
HIGH BUT THE SATURATED LAYER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
335 AM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND THEN PRECIP TIMING/TYPE AND TEMP TRENDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES REGION TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRIVEN ALMOST COMPLETELY
BY ADVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S SUNDAY AS SUGGESTED BY THE MET GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
HOW WARM TEMPS WILL GET IS STILL LOW AND MAINTAINED LOWER 50S FOR
NOW. BUT WITH LITTLE DROP IN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS
LIKELY STAYING IN THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 40S...MONDAY MAY END UP
BEING AS WARM OR WARMER THAN SUNDAY AND HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S THEN AS WELL. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE
BUMPED UP WITH LATER FORECASTS.
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES LARGE ENOUGH NOT TO GET TO FANCY WITH TIMING YET...
BUT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN INTO
MONDAY EVENING. GFS/ECMWF SHOW COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ON GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS. BULK OF THE QPF IS EXITING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES
SO NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH SNOW. TRANSITIONED PRECIP TO A RAIN/
SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY BUT THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIP...REGARDLESS OF
TYPE...COULD END BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. ALSO TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER
WITH TEMPS ON TUESDAY...HOLDING STEADY MIDDAY THEN SLOWLY FALLING
BUT IF TIMING IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE IN THE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THURSDAY FROM THIS DISTANCE. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM LIFR CONDITIONS TO IFR. SOME PATCHY
-FZDZ/-SN AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF CHICAGO
TAFS.
* LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN LATER TONIGHT.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
LIFR CEIILNGS REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS AREA THIS MORNING...
WITH VISIBILITY GENERALY IFR IN FOG. AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/SNOW WERE COMPOUNDING VISIBILITY ISSUE HOWEVER...
PARTICULARLY AT KMDW WHERE VIS HAS DROPPED AS LOW AS 1/4-1/2SM AT
TIMES. LOOKING AT RADAR. IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL POINT SOURCE
INDUSTRIAL PLUMES (SMOKE OR STEAM PLUMES) MAY BE HELPING TO
PRODUCE SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW REPORTS...INCLUDING THE SNOW AT
KMDW AND ASSOCIATED LOW VISIBILITY. PIREP FROM KMDW INDICATES
CLOUD BASE AT 300 FT AND TOP AT 1600 FT...WHICH MATCHES AMDAR
SOUNDINGS FROM KMDW QUITE WELL.
OVERALL...EXPECT SOME SLOW DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT TO IFR CIG/VIS
CONDITIONS WITH LOSS OF DZ/SN TODAY. HOWEVER...LOW CONIDENCE IN
EVOLUTION OF CURRENT LOW VIS/DZ/SN.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 12Z...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES JUST EAST OF THE AREA. AROUND
THIS...LIFR CIGS AND IFR VISIBILITY HAVE ENCOMPASSED THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FURTHER THROUGH 13Z-
14Z BEFORE A PROBABLE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT INTO MID-AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME FLURRIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED
IN THE REGION AND CANNOT RULE THESE OUT AT ANY OF THE
AIRPORTS...AS THE PRECIPITATION IS DIFFICULT TO DETECT ON RADAR.
THIS POTENTIAL IS MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING.
WHILE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS IS AS CLOSE AS SOUTHEAST IA
AND WESTERN IL...THE THINKING REMAINS THAT THIS WILL REMAIN WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE AGAIN AFTER DARK TONIGHT THOUGH HOW QUICKLY IS
DIFFICULT TO SAY GIVEN THE INHERENT STRATUS DECK. THERE WILL AGAIN
BE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM IN LIFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TONIGHT. LOW IN TIMING.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...IFR LIKELY WITH FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...IFR LIKELY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. SOUTH WINDS.
MONDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF RAIN. SOUTH
WINDS.
TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. SOUTHEAST
WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
158 AM CST
A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF MOVING LITTLE BEFORE
DAMPENING AND WEAKENING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL MEAN NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OVER THE LAKE TODAY
TURNING SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD. A STRONGER
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND PHASE WITH THE ORIGINAL LOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THIS WILL INCREASE THOUGH A STABLE PATTERN OVER THE
LAKE WILL HINDER THE WINDS FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG. THE HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE BEHIND THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT PASSAGE LIKELY
TO HAPPEN MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 30 KT ARENA AND THE TIME PERIOD WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE GALES.
IN ADDITION...GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER THE LAKE AS
DEW POINTS NEAR AND TOP THE WATER TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THIS FOG
COULD END UP BEING DENSE.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1000 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
After a period of clear skies last night, clouds have spread back
across central Illinois this morning. The 12z KILX upper air
sounding showed a 2000-foot saturated layer below 850mb. This
layer is considerably thicker than just 24 hours ago, so potential
for clearing today is slim at best. 12z NAM forecast soundings
show moisture remaining trapped beneath the strong inversion
throughout the day, while HRRR indicates overcast conditions as
well. Based on current satellite imagery that shows breaks in the
overcast south of St. Louis and across far southern Illinois, will
have to monitor the SE KILX CWA for potential breaks this
afternoon. Otherwise it will be a cloudy day across the area. Due
to the clouds and only minimal WAA beneath the surface ridge axis,
have lowered afternoon highs into the middle to upper 30s. Warmest
readings in the lower 40s will be found across the SW CWA around
Jacksonville where WAA will be strongest.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
Satellite imagery and surface observations show a region of low
overcast skies spreading eastward across central IL early this
morning as warm and moist southwesterly flow moves into the area
ahead of the strong low moving through the Southwest. This will
allow high temperatures to increase several degrees today compared
with Thursday, but the extensive cloud cover may hold them down a
few degrees from previous forecast expectations. Expecting
temperatures around 40 degrees most locations. Surface winds will
remain light from the SW today as pressure gradients remain weak in
the vicinity of high pressure centered over the Ohio River Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
Clouds remain a bit of a problem...but most models have them
expanding back over Central Illinois later this evening. Winds
becoming more southerly on the back side of this ridge over the
course of the day, resulting in the slow warm up of the region for
the weekend. Overnight lows only dropping into the 30s...and
Saturday warmer in the upper 40s/near 50. Soundings start to look
more cloudy throughout the weekend, underneath the high pressure in
advance of the approaching storm system. However, forecast
soundings slowly lose the strength of the inversion into Sunday
afternoon, and may need to consider some breaks in the clouds.
Whether from sunshine or aggressive sfc WAA, temps on Sunday
expected to climb into the 50s.
Precip chances return late in the weekend...Sunday night...and into
the first of the work week. Models beginning to resemble one
another with the progression of the upper trof and the surface
system overall, although the NAM is about 6 hrs behind the GFS and
ECMWF. In addition, SuperBlend holding on to pops way too long into
Tuesday. Would pull that entirely but lack of continuity with this
systems forecast and the NAM running slower on approach...will leave
the pops in for Tuesday but keep them low. Tuesday night was
removed altogether. Best chances for rain remain Monday and Monday
night, now easily in the likely category. Forecast confidence
completely disintegrates Wednesday as the pattern shift after
Mondays system lacks any kind of similarity btwn the longer range
models. GFS is showing some ridging at h5 with the low exiting to
the east... and the ECMWF is almost northwesterly flow, with another
impulse following into the trof of the prev system. Keeping pops
very low for Wed night-Thur night until some consensus is reached.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
MVFR conditions will be predominant across central and southeast
Illinois for the next 24 hours. An area of MVFR with locally IFR
ceilings will spread eastward to the IL/IN border shortly after
12Z, and remain over the area for the next few days. In addition,
MVFR visibilities will be common until around 16Z. By late
afternoon, warming temperatures may result in some breaks in the
overcast ceilings, but these should end shortly after sunset.
Winds generally W-SW 6 Kts or less for the next 24 hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
338 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
STRATUS DECK AS OF 20Z HAS ENCOMPASSED MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH JUST FAR EASTERN COUNTIES STILL ENJOYING SUNSHINE.
CLEARING IS ALSO ATTEMPTING TO SNEAK INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
TEMPS HAVE BEEN KEPT DOWN AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUD DECK AND PATCHY
FOG IN SPOTS. TEMPS LARGELY REMAINED IN THE LOWER/MID 30S.
PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT FOCUSES ON FOG POTENTIAL AS STRATUS
DECK SETTLES IN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE RAP
WHICH HAS CAPTURED THE CLOUD DECK EXPANSION WELL SO FAR TODAY. LOWER
RH VALUES IN THE 925-950MB RANGE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE CURRENT AREA OF CLEARING. SHOULD SEE
THIS CLEARING POKE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W/NW THIS
EVENING...AND THIS WILL FORCE THE CLEARING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE STRATUS REESTABLISHING OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE SHALLOW INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT BELOW 2500FT...SUPPORTING THICK MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT WITH A RELATIVELY STAGNANT AIRMASS OVERHEAD. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITIES FROM GETTING WAY DOWN...BUT DO EXPECT AREAS
OF 2-3SM DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LOWER VISIBILITIES.
TEMPS...HAVE TRENDED WITH THE RAP HOURLIES OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS
PRIMARILY IN THE 30S THEREAFTER. SUBFREEZING TEMPS MAY LINGER OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE WARMING TO OR ABOVE
32F. SHOULD ANY THICKER FOG DEVELOP...FREEZING FOG COULD BE A
POTENTIAL CONCERN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMP/FOG TRENDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON FOG...DRIZZLE AND TEMPS AS CLOUDS
RETURN FOR AN EXTENDED STAY ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. RAIN ARRIVES
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE SUN HAS AGAIN TAKEN AN
EXTENDED HOLIDAY.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT
INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIANS
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SUNDAY AND EVEN THEN WILL NOT PASS THROUGH
THE REGION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED TO THE
SOUTHEAST...THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WITHIN A
STAGNANT FLOW PATTERN WITH NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL TO KICK OUT THE LOWER
CLOUDS.
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HELPING
TO MAINTAIN AND STRENGTHEN A LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION AND POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MENTIONED ABOVE...SEE REALLY NO CHANCE FOR STRATUS
TO BREAK OVER THE AREA EITHER DAY THIS WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WELL ABOVE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.
OVERNIGHT FOG IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. CONSIDERED
MENTIONING PATCHY DRIZZLE ON SATURDAY WITH SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
PRESENT THROUGH 900MB...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT DRIZZLE OUT FOR
SATURDAY AT THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE AND FOG IS HIGHER BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES A BIT AND THE
SATURATED LAYER RISES TO NEAR 4000FT. ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES
SUNDAY EVENING AND THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...A MORE PRONOUNCED
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ENABLE THE INVERSION TO
FINALLY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND BRING AN END TO THE DRIZZLE AND FOG.
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY ON MONDAY IN TANDEM
WITH A SHARP UPPER LOW CUTTING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
FORCING WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH RAIN
BECOMING LIKELY BY MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPS...HAVE GENERALLY THROWN OUT MOS FOR TEMPS ALL WEEKEND AND
RELIED INSTEAD MORE ON THE COOLER RAW MODEL TEMPS. MOS APPEARS TOO
WARM ALL THREE DAYS AND PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
RESULTED IN HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES BELOW THE COLDER MAVMOS
AND HAVE SOME CONCERNS MAY NOT HAVE GONE COOL ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. LOWS WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES BY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 221 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS IN HOW FAST RAIN RETURNS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. RELIED MORE ON THE ECMWF/HPC EXTENDED FORECAST
THERE...OTHERWISE MODELS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED.
SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AND WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON THURSDAY WITH GFS BRINGING AN UPPER SYSTEM ALONG
WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN...WHILE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. PREFER THE
DRIER SOLUTION AS JUST DO NOT SEE ANYTHING STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN AT
THE SURFACE.
ALSO REMOVED ANY SUPERBLEND POPS ON FRIDAY AS GFS IS ONLY MODEL
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE AREA AND IT IS USUALLY TOO FAST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 121800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR /WITH SOME IFR AT TIMES/ THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY IFR. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE LOWER CLOUDS
UPSTREAM WHICH HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO RISE INTO MVFR CATEGORY
/ALBEIT WITH SOME STUBBORN POCKETS OF IFR/.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE SOME THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MIXING SO WENT
WITH BECOMING MVFR EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR AS WELL WITH THE MIXING.
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY SO KEPT MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND ADDED SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL. IFR COULD
REDEVELOP THOUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT AM NOT READY TO ADD IT AT THIS
TIME.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50/JH
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
333 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THEN...THERE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD
MIX IN TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN DROP TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM. AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
THICK STRATUS DECK MAKING STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF MID MORNING. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 20S AS
OF 1430Z.
FOR THOSE WHO HAVE ENJOYED THE SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND SO FAR THIS
MORNING...MIGHT WANT TO GET OUT AND SOAK IT UP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE ITS GONE. OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR IN
HANDLING THE EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD DECK SO FAR THIS MORNING.
CURRENT RAP SEEMS TO BE DOING FAR AND AWAY THE BEST JOB ON THE
STRATUS AND HAVE UTILIZED IT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW YET STOUT INVERSION DEVELOPING AS THE
CLOUDS ARRIVE WITH RAP 950MB RH PROGS IN EXCESS OF 90% OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE SUBSTANTIALLY AS A
RESULT WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON.
ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY. WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LOW STRATUS...SEE LITTLE CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM
AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. TOOK A BLEND OF THE RAP RAW SURFACE
TEMPS AND THE LAMP DATA WHICH RESULTED IN DROPPING HIGHS NEARLY 5
DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. AND THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. ONE OTHER
NOTE...HAVE SEEN POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. BELIEVE THERE IS TOO MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TO SUPPORT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE
LATER TODAY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST THU DEC 11 2014
SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MODELS ALSO ALL SUGGEST THAT
NEGATIVELY TILTED PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOO FAR AWAY TO WARRANT POPS
LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
925 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN DURING
THE DAY TO A POINT. MOS DOES NOT SEEM TO INCLUDE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER...1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES TO 1340 METERS ON SUNDAY
SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE 50S DESPITE THE CLOUD
OVER...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. MEANWHILE...AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S LOOK GOOD FOR SATURDAY. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID
40S. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
MOS LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM ON SUNDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS THEN MOS
SUGGESTS...WILL GO AT OR ABOVE MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 221 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS IN HOW FAST RAIN RETURNS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. RELIED MORE ON THE ECMWF/HPC EXTENDED FORECAST
THERE...OTHERWISE MODELS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED.
SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AND WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON THURSDAY WITH GFS BRINGING AN UPPER SYSTEM ALONG
WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN...WHILE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. PREFER THE
DRIER SOLUTION AS JUST DO NOT SEE ANYTHING STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN AT
THE SURFACE.
ALSO REMOVED ANY SUPERBLEND POPS ON FRIDAY AS GFS IS ONLY MODEL
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE AREA AND IT IS USUALLY TOO FAST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 121800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR /WITH SOME IFR AT TIMES/ THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY IFR. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE LOWER CLOUDS
UPSTREAM WHICH HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO RISE INTO MVFR CATEGORY
/ALBEIT WITH SOME STUBBORN POCKETS OF IFR/.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE SOME THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MIXING SO WENT
WITH BECOMING MVFR EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR AS WELL WITH THE MIXING.
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY SO KEPT MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND ADDED SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL. IFR COULD
REDEVELOP THOUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT AM NOT READY TO ADD IT AT THIS
TIME.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50/JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
221 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THEN...THERE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD
MIX IN TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN DROP TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM. AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
THICK STRATUS DECK MAKING STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF MID MORNING. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 20S AS
OF 1430Z.
FOR THOSE WHO HAVE ENJOYED THE SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND SO FAR THIS
MORNING...MIGHT WANT TO GET OUT AND SOAK IT UP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE ITS GONE. OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR IN
HANDLING THE EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD DECK SO FAR THIS MORNING.
CURRENT RAP SEEMS TO BE DOING FAR AND AWAY THE BEST JOB ON THE
STRATUS AND HAVE UTILIZED IT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW YET STOUT INVERSION DEVELOPING AS THE
CLOUDS ARRIVE WITH RAP 950MB RH PROGS IN EXCESS OF 90% OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE SUBSTANTIALLY AS A
RESULT WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON.
ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY. WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LOW STRATUS...SEE LITTLE CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM
AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. TOOK A BLEND OF THE RAP RAW SURFACE
TEMPS AND THE LAMP DATA WHICH RESULTED IN DROPPING HIGHS NEARLY 5
DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. AND THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. ONE OTHER
NOTE...HAVE SEEN POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. BELIEVE THERE IS TOO MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TO SUPPORT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE
LATER TODAY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST THU DEC 11 2014
SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MODELS ALSO ALL SUGGEST THAT
NEGATIVELY TILTED PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOO FAR AWAY TO WARRANT POPS
LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
925 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN DURING
THE DAY TO A POINT. MOS DOES NOT SEEM TO INCLUDE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER...1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES TO 1340 METERS ON SUNDAY
SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE 50S DESPITE THE CLOUD
OVER...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. MEANWHILE...AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S LOOK GOOD FOR SATURDAY. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID
40S. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
MOS LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM ON SUNDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS THEN MOS
SUGGESTS...WILL GO AT OR ABOVE MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 221 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS IN HOW FAST RAIN RETURNS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. RELIED MORE ON THE ECMWF/HPC EXTENDED FORECAST
THERE...OTHERWISE MODELS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED.
SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AND WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON THURSDAY WITH GFS BRINGING AN UPPER SYSTEM ALONG
WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN...WHILE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. PREFER THE
DRIER SOLUTION AS JUST DO NOT SEE ANYTHING STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN AT
THE SURFACE.
ALSO REMOVED ANY SUPERBLEND POPS ON FRIDAY AS GFS IS ONLY MODEL
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE AREA AND IT IS USUALLY TOO FAST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 121800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
MVFR /WITH SOME IFR AT TIMES/ THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY IFR. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE LOWER CLOUDS
UPSTREAM WHICH HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO RISE INTO MVFR CATEGORY
/ALBEIT WITH SOME STUBBORN POCKETS OF IFR/.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE SOME THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MIXING SO WENT
WITH BECOMING MVFR EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR AS WELL WITH THE MIXING.
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY SO KEPT MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND ADDED SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL. IFR COULD
REDEVELOP THOUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT AM NOT READY TO ADD IT AT THIS
TIME.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1125 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THEN...THERE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD
MIX IN TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN DROP TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM. AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
THICK STRATUS DECK MAKING STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF MID MORNING. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 20S AS
OF 1430Z.
FOR THOSE WHO HAVE ENJOYED THE SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND SO FAR THIS
MORNING...MIGHT WANT TO GET OUT AND SOAK IT UP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE ITS GONE. OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR IN
HANDLING THE EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD DECK SO FAR THIS MORNING.
CURRENT RAP SEEMS TO BE DOING FAR AND AWAY THE BEST JOB ON THE
STRATUS AND HAVE UTILIZED IT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW YET STOUT INVERSION DEVELOPING AS THE
CLOUDS ARRIVE WITH RAP 950MB RH PROGS IN EXCESS OF 90% OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE SUBSTANTIALLY AS A
RESULT WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON.
ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY. WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LOW STRATUS...SEE LITTLE CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM
AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. TOOK A BLEND OF THE RAP RAW SURFACE
TEMPS AND THE LAMP DATA WHICH RESULTED IN DROPPING HIGHS NEARLY 5
DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. AND THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. ONE OTHER
NOTE...HAVE SEEN POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. BELIEVE THERE IS TOO MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TO SUPPORT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE
LATER TODAY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST THU DEC 11 2014
SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MODELS ALSO ALL SUGGEST THAT
NEGATIVELY TILTED PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOO FAR AWAY TO WARRANT POPS
LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
925 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN DURING
THE DAY TO A POINT. MOS DOES NOT SEEM TO INCLUDE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER...1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES TO 1340 METERS ON SUNDAY
SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE 50S DESPITE THE CLOUD
OVER...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. MEANWHILE...AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S LOOK GOOD FOR SATURDAY. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID
40S. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
MOS LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM ON SUNDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS THEN MOS
SUGGESTS...WILL GO AT OR ABOVE MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WITH
THE EJECTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO COVER THIS SYSTEM. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE
THREAT FOR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LATER NEXT WEEK AS ENSEMBLES DIFFER
ON THE EVOLVING PATTERN. A SLIM MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE
ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EAST COAST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST...WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST
A MORE PROGRESSIVE LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN. IF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS END UP BEING CORRECT...MILDER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS NEXT THURSDAY...WHILE
THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A COLDER PATTER WITH THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD. FOR
NOW...WILL ADD SOME SMALL POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR NEXT THURSDAY TO
COVER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 121800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
MVFR /WITH SOME IFR AT TIMES/ THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY IFR. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE LOWER CLOUDS
UPSTREAM WHICH HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO RISE INTO MVFR CATEGORY
/ALBEIT WITH SOME STUBBORN POCKETS OF IFR/.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE SOME THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MIXING SO WENT
WITH BECOMING MVFR EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR AS WELL WITH THE MIXING.
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY SO KEPT MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND ADDED SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL. IFR COULD
REDEVELOP THOUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT AM NOT READY TO ADD IT AT THIS
TIME.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1116 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THEN...THERE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD
MIX IN TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN DROP TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM. AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
THICK STRATUS DECK MAKING STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF MID MORNING. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 20S AS
OF 1430Z.
FOR THOSE WHO HAVE ENJOYED THE SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND SO FAR THIS
MORNING...MIGHT WANT TO GET OUT AND SOAK IT UP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE ITS GONE. OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR IN
HANDLING THE EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD DECK SO FAR THIS MORNING.
CURRENT RAP SEEMS TO BE DOING FAR AND AWAY THE BEST JOB ON THE
STRATUS AND HAVE UTILIZED IT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW YET STOUT INVERSION DEVELOPING AS THE
CLOUDS ARRIVE WITH RAP 950MB RH PROGS IN EXCESS OF 90% OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE SUBSTANTIALLY AS A
RESULT WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON.
ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY. WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LOW STRATUS...SEE LITTLE CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM
AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. TOOK A BLEND OF THE RAP RAW SURFACE
TEMPS AND THE LAMP DATA WHICH RESULTED IN DROPPING HIGHS NEARLY 5
DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. AND THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. ONE OTHER
NOTE...HAVE SEEN POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. BELIEVE THERE IS TOO MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TO SUPPORT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE
LATER TODAY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST THU DEC 11 2014
SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MODELS ALSO ALL SUGGEST THAT
NEGATIVELY TILTED PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOO FAR AWAY TO WARRANT POPS
LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
925 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN DURING
THE DAY TO A POINT. MOS DOES NOT SEEM TO INCLUDE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER...1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES TO 1340 METERS ON SUNDAY
SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE 50S DESPITE THE CLOUD
OVER...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. MEANWHILE...AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S LOOK GOOD FOR SATURDAY. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID
40S. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
MOS LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM ON SUNDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS THEN MOS
SUGGESTS...WILL GO AT OR ABOVE MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WITH
THE EJECTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO COVER THIS SYSTEM. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE
THREAT FOR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LATER NEXT WEEK AS ENSEMBLES DIFFER
ON THE EVOLVING PATTERN. A SLIM MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE
ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EAST COAST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST...WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST
A MORE PROGRESSIVE LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN. IF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS END UP BEING CORRECT...MILDER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS NEXT THURSDAY...WHILE
THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A COLDER PATTER WITH THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD. FOR
NOW...WILL ADD SOME SMALL POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR NEXT THURSDAY TO
COVER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 121500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 937 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
IFR CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY EAST INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
AT THE MOMENT. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THIS DECK SHOULD REACH
KIND AROUND 1530Z. UPDATED TAF TO REFLECT THIS. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG IFR WILL LAST...SO LEFT IT IN FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT FOG EXPECTED TO
LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AS MIXING SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
UNDER A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION INDICATED ON LAST EVENING/S UPPER
AIR. POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EXTENSIVE MVFR DECK AROUND 025
HAS BEEN SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDAY
HOURS AND ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
WESTERLY.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 270-290
DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
337 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
THIS MORNING:
SOME LOCATIONS LIKE KDDC HAVE BEEN GOING IN AND OUT OF FOG ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WHILE OTHER SITES OUT WEST STILL INDICATE DENSE FOG. IN ORDER
TO AVOID SPLITTING HAIRS, WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS IS AND EVEN
HAVE EXTENDED IN TIME AS THE FOG MAY LINGER LONGER THAN WHAT MODELS
ARE INDICATING. PUSHED THE EXPIRATION TIME OUT ANOTHER 2 HOURS. ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HRRR GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THAT A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE DENSE FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING.
TODAY:
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES DUE TO FOG. HOWEVER,
THINK THAT LINGERING FOG WILL RESULT IN LOWER HIGHS LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY.
UPSLOPE FOG SHOULD LINGER THEN LONGEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND
HAVE GONE LOWER HERE. CALLING FOR 40S WEST TO 50S EAST. SOME
GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY COOLER, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS WARMER. SOME OF
THE MODELS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG DECAY AND RESULTANT
WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BOTTOM LINE, ANOTHER TRICKY TEMPERATURE
DAY.
TONIGHT:
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS SEEING DENSE FOG AS
INDICATED PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PLUMES. WILL KEEP FOG
IN THE GRIDS. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE ENOUGH SATURATION
THICKNESS FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE, HOWEVER, LOOKS MORE OF FOG THAN DRIZZLE.
MINIMUMS WILL BE MILD AGAIN WITH THE FOG, HIGHER DEWPOINTS, AND CLOUD
COVER - 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
THE MODELS, EXCEPT FOR THE NAM, ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION WITH
SUNDAY`S UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM, MOVING ALONG A PATH FROM
DALHART TO WICHITA TO KANSAS CITY. THIS TRACK WOULD RESULT IN A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN SOME RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY NEAR THE TROWEL AXIS FROM STANTON COUNTY INTO SCOTT, LANE
AND TREGO COUNTIES. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL
BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM DIGHTON TO DODGE CITY TO
ENGLEWOOD. GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDINESS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS,
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MORE THAN SEVERAL DEGREES
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY EVENING, MAINLY STAYING IN THE
50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE NEXT FORECAST PROBLEM IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS SO THAT THE DETAILS
ARE NOT KNOWN. BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH THIS
PERIOD GIVEN THAT WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ADVERTISED TO
KEEP CHILLY, ALBEIT NOT ARCTIC, AIR IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT WESTERN KANSAS BY THE DECEMBER
22ND-24TH TIME FRAME; AND THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM OF COURSE ARE
EVEN LESS KNOWN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL PROBABLY
STAY CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES OR PERHAPS A LITTLE COLDER THAN
AVERAGE SO THAT RAIN OR SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG WILL REMAIN THE BIG STORY FOR THE DDC,
GCK, AND HYS TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SLOWLY DEEPENING
LEE TROUGH OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO WILL KEEP A COLD FRONT
STALLED NEAR THE KANSAS...COLORADO BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW A
COOL...MOIST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
FRONT TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF LIFR TO VLIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 58 54 58 / 10 10 20 80
GCK 46 58 48 54 / 10 10 30 40
EHA 40 65 44 54 / 0 0 30 40
LBL 47 66 52 57 / 10 10 50 50
HYS 47 55 52 57 / 10 10 10 90
P28 49 59 54 60 / 10 10 10 90
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO NOON
CST /11 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ043>045-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...AJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
324 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
20Z water vapor imagery continues to show mid level ridging over the
great plains with a weak shortwave moving southeast over eastern OK.
Meanwhile the longwave trough out west is making steady progress
inland. At the surface, ridging over the lower MS river valley and
low pressure in the lee of the Rockies continues to favor the
continued advection of moist air north. Surface obs are now showing
the lower 50 dewpoints beginning to surge north through western OK
and the eastern TX panhandle.
For tonight and Saturday, the models show little if any large scale
forcing as the mid level ridge remains overhead. Because of this the
forecast focuses mainly on the low level moisture return and keeps
chances for measurable precip at 10 percent or less. Overcast skies
are likely to take hold once again this evening due to the low level
moisture advection. Already lower clouds have moved back north to
along I-70 after some mid level subsidence behind the upper level
shortwave caused the clouds to dissipate. Based on the models, there
is not much to suggest the trend for clouds spreading north will go
away. Am not sure how wide spread any drizzle overnight will be
since forecast soundings from the RAP/NAM/GFS show only very weak
vertical motion within the stratus deck. Isentropic surfaces are
also very shallow with any upglide and it does not seem to be well
organized for an extended period of time. Because of this will only
mention patchy fog and drizzle. With cloud cover and moisture
continuing to move north, lows tonight are expected to remain in the
mid 40s, and this possibly could be a little on the cool side. The
question for highs Saturday is whether there will be much insolation.
Models continue to move the weak shortwave away from the forecast
area, so am not sure there will be the subsidence we had today to
erode the clouds away. Nevertheless continued warm air advection
should help push temps into the mid 50s to around 60.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
Chances for more significant precipitation still set to increase
Sunday into Sunday night as the upper wave steadily deepens and
finally passes through Sunday night. There remain some differences
on specifics of this system in speed and location, at least in part
due to interaction with northern branch jet energy coming south into
the Northern Plains behind it, with the main impact of this on the
amount of cold air that can be pulled in behind the stacked system
and how fast precip will exit. Deep cold air availability still
remains a challenge in even the stronger slower/stronger solutions,
still only supporting a mix mention in western locations Monday
morning. Depending on this depth, could see nearly any mode of
wintry precip develop, with any amounts being light, and given such
warm conditions in preceding days, impacts are expected to be
minimal. As for this warmth, deep south flow to slightly southwest
flow continues to push and low to mid level thermodynamics up ahead
of the system. Minor 850mb to near surface isentropic upglide under
the inversion suggests keeping a mention of fog and drizzle going
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Mixing heights from model
soundings look a little too given increasing pressure gradient, and
could see some breaks in the low cloud to bring highs into the lower
60s, with Saturday night dewpoints in the 50s keeping temps well
above normal high temps. Forcing aloft and a bit of instability
aloft keeps a thunder mention in for Sunday afternoon and at least
Sunday evening, though expect a slow downturn in intensity overnight
Sunday, with wettest period late Sunday afternoon into the predawn
of Monday.
Tuesday into at least early Wednesday are the best bets to be dry
for this forecast, with uncertainty in the forecast increasing with
time. Energy with the upper trough north of Hawaii today makes its
way into the western CONUS early next week, splitting in various
ways in the stronger southern branch and still considerable northern
branch jets into the mid week. The GFS has the Monday Northern
Plains low weaker and faster than the ECMWF, allowing for a
southwest shortwave to intensify and tap into better moisture. It
appears to be the outlier from recent runs and will keep Wednesday
dry. There is an overall more southern trend with the storm track
into the late week and with modified Canadian air keeping hold of
the Northern Plains, have decreasing confidence in getting
precipitation, especially anything heavy, into the end of the work
week. Temperature should remain rather close to seasonable
normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
The forecast will stay with persistence as the RAP and NAM
continue to show a relative minimum in 925MB RH through the
afternoon. Because of this think VFR CIGS will persist with VSBY
gradually improving. May even see the sucker hole to the north
move over the terminals this afternoon. Forecast soundings and
objective MOS guidance continues to point at MVFR conditions
redeveloping this evening. With IFR CIGS and VSBY upstream over
southern KS and northwest OK, this seems reasonable. Confidence in
timing the lower CIGS and VSBY is not that high since models show
a saturated boundary layer even now.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 324 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
Record high temperatures for December 13...
Topeka......70, set in 1921.
Concordia...75, set in 1921.
Record highest minimum temperatures for December 13...
Topeka......42, set in 2008.
Concordia...40, set in 1921.
Record high temperatures for December 14...
Topeka......70, set in 1933.
Concordia...64, set in 2006.
Record highest minimum temperatures for December 14...
Topeka......46, set in 2011.
Concordia...41, set in 1891.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters
CLIMATE...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1151 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
THIS MORNING:
SOME LOCATIONS LIKE KDDC HAVE BEEN GOING IN AND OUT OF FOG ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WHILE OTHER SITES OUT WEST STILL INDICATE DENSE FOG. IN ORDER
TO AVOID SPLITTING HAIRS, WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS IS AND EVEN
HAVE EXTENDED IN TIME AS THE FOG MAY LINGER LONGER THAN WHAT MODELS
ARE INDICATING. PUSHED THE EXPIRATION TIME OUT ANOTHER 2 HOURS. ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HRRR GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THAT A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE DENSE FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING.
TODAY:
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES DUE TO FOG. HOWEVER,
THINK THAT LINGERING FOG WILL RESULT IN LOWER HIGHS LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY.
UPSLOPE FOG SHOULD LINGER THEN LONGEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND
HAVE GONE LOWER HERE. CALLING FOR 40S WEST TO 50S EAST. SOME
GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY COOLER, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS WARMER. SOME OF
THE MODELS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG DECAY AND RESULTANT
WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BOTTOM LINE, ANOTHER TRICKY TEMPERATURE
DAY.
TONIGHT:
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS SEEING DENSE FOG AS
INDICATED PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PLUMES. WILL KEEP FOG
IN THE GRIDS. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE ENOUGH SATURATION
THICKNESS FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE, HOWEVER, LOOKS MORE OF FOG THAN DRIZZLE.
MINIMUMS WILL BE MILD AGAIN WITH THE FOG, HIGHER DEWPOINTS, AND CLOUD
COVER - 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: AHEAD OF THE STORM.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
CONTINUED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS. LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO ERODE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
AREAS LIKE ELKHART AND LIBERAL MAY EXCEED 60 DEGREES IF SOME SUN CAN
BE REALIZED AFTER NOON. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE REGION WILL STAY
SOCKED IN WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID 50S AS A
GENERAL RULE. THE MAJOR TROUGH OUT WEST WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
ROCKIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF, GFS, AND CANADIAN GEM ALL
AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAJOR MID-LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY IN THE
EVENING TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
WILL SPONSOR CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, EFFECTIVELY INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS. NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH OFF THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES WITH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
SUNDAY: THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT.
BY 12Z SUNDAY, THE 500MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE LOW CENTER SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO...AND A 700MB LOW ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO-NEW MEXICO
BORDER. BY THIS TIME, WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY DECENT AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
WILL BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A NORTHEASTWARD EXPANDING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AXIS, WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE 12-18Z TIME
FRAME. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE NAM12 IS ACTUALLY SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF MODEL, WHICH IS OPPOSITE OF WHAT IS TYPICALLY SEEN FROM PAST
PERFORMANCE OF THE NAM REGARDING UPPER LOWS LIKE THIS. EITHER WAY,
BOTH THE NAM12 AND ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT OCCLUSION OCCURRING DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH A DRY INTRUSION WORKING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE 700-500MB LOW CENTERS. IT IS LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKE A ONE-SHOT DEAL FOR DECENT ACCUMULATING RAINFALL -
- THE 12 TO 18Z TIME FRAME SUNDAY. THE NAM12 SHOWS 500-700 J/KG OF
MUCAPE WHICH REALLY COMES AS NO SURPRISE GIVEN A) THE 50-53F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND B) RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE WX
GRIDS WILL REFLECT THIS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS MAIN WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION AREA. BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, IT IS NOT UNREASONABLE TO THINK THAT SOME SUN MAY FILTER
IN BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF MORNING/MIDDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND
IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR, THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE
ALLOWING ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM WITHIN THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION.
SUNDAY NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY: THE WRAP-AROUND AND CHANGE OVER TO WET
SNOW.
THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE WILL BE OCCLUDING AND FILLING FAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE 700MB LOW CENTERED SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WITH THE LOW CENTERED AT THIS LATITUDE, THE BEST AREA FOR WRAP-
AROUND COLD SECTOR DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND ADJACENT EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE
HIGHEST EVENING POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS
(SYRACUSE UP TO SCOTT CITY MAINLY). THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WRAP-
AROUND PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE COLD SECTOR WILL MOST LIKELY BE
SNOW AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -1 TO -3C, ESPECIALLY BY 06Z. BY
THIS TIME, HOWEVER, THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
ANY WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT, AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO SYRACUSE-SCOTT CITY-WAKEENEY LINE. THE PROSPECT OF MODERATE
TO EVEN LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL (TO CREATE ANY TRAVEL HAZARD)
FOR ANY PORTION OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA HAS DECREASED QUITE A BIT.
IN FACT, WE WON`T BE CARRYING ANY MORE THAN ABOUT A HALF INCH OF
SNOW ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA, AND THAT WILL ONLY BE UP IN
SCOTT-LANE-TREGO COUNTY.
EARLY WEEK: IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS.
WE WILL SEE SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST STORM. WE SHOULD ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT OF
COOLER CANADIAN AIR, AND IT WILL NOT BE ARCTIC IN NATURE. MONDAY`S
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S MOST EVERYWHERE WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH OR SO (STRONGEST EARLY IN THE DAY).
EYES THEN TURN BACK OUT WEST AS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH AND PACIFIC JET
DIVES TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WE WILL REMAIN IN SHORTWAVE
RIDGING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT STORM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION WITH TEMPERATURES SEASONAL IN THE
LOWER 40S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MID-LATE WEEK: THE NEXT STORM?
THERE IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE DEC 18-20 TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL SUGGESTING A DECENT WINTER
PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE LEGACY GFS40 MODEL SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER
INITIAL WAVE AND THUS MUCH LESS DEVELOPMENT FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE GFS40 FOCUSES MUCH OF ITS ENERGY ON THE SECOND
JET STREAK WHICH DIVES WAY DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. IN THE GRIDS,
WE WILL BE FOLLOWING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE OF 20-30 POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THURSDAY, THURSDAY NIGHT PERIODS FOR NOW WITH A
VAGUE "RAIN OR SNOW" AS THE WX TYPE RIGHT NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG WILL REMAIN THE BIG STORY FOR THE DDC,
GCK, AND HYS TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SLOWLY DEEPENING
LEE TROUGH OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO WILL KEEP A COLD FRONT
STALLED NEAR THE KANSAS...COLORADO BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW A
COOL...MOIST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
FRONT TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF LIFR TO VLIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 53 48 56 54 / 10 10 10 60
GCK 51 45 58 48 / 10 10 10 40
EHA 54 40 65 44 / 0 0 0 30
LBL 51 45 65 52 / 10 10 10 70
HYS 51 46 54 52 / 10 10 10 30
P28 52 48 57 54 / 10 10 10 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR KSZ030-
043>045-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...AJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1114 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
In the mid-levels, a broad ridge was in place across the central
U.S. with a closed low centered over the New England area. To the
west, a mid-level trough has developed just off the Pacific
coastline, and it`s this feature that will support rain/snow chances
late weekend into early next week. At the surface the forecast area
remained wedged between high pressure to the east and low pressure
over the Rockies. Model soundings continue to show a strong
inversion in place over the region, which combined with gradual
moisture advection into the area has resulted in moisture remaining
trapped in the low-levels. These conditions have contributed to the
persistent overcast skies and frequent periods of drizzle/mist and
patchy fog. Patchy drizzle and fog were present early this morning,
but model soundings show drier conditions developing within the
low-levels through the morning hours so anticipate a break in the
drizzle by mid morning, if not earlier, and persisting through the
afternoon hours. As the surface high shifts further to the east,
winds are expected to veer toward the south today. Despite the
overcast skies in place, expect these southerly winds to provide
enough warm air advection to boost afternoon high temperatures up
into the upper 40s/low 50s. This southerly flow also will contribute
to continued moisture advection into the area with dewpoint
temperatures rising into the 40s. Model soundings show the dry air
in the low-levels diminishing through the evening and overnight
hours tonight, so expect some areas of drizzle and fog to develop
once again late tonight into Saturday morning. These overcast skies
also will continue to limit the amount of radiational cooling that
occurs in the evening with low temperatures tonight only expected to
drop into the mid/upper 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
The long term period still looks unsettled and the forecast
remains more-or-less unchanged, but perhaps with more confidence
in the details of the storm system late Sunday into Monday.
Saturday through Sunday morning is still on track for continued
cloudy, occasionally foggy conditions with periods of drizzle. The
good news is that Saturday will be quite warm for this time of
year, especially given the cloud cover. The probability for
measurable precipitation through this period is quite low but the
probability of generally wet conditions is rather high.
By mid-day Sunday, the very potent storm system currently lashing
the west coast will be deepening as it moves into the Oklahoma
panhandle region. The upper low will also become a closed low
after crossing the Rockies, which can sometimes signal a slower
progression to the east. This particular system appears to have a
structure that will support continued eastward movement through
Monday, although we have slowed the onset of precipitation locally
with this forecast...with rain not likely to enter the forecast
area until Sunday afternoon. At this time, have moderate
confidence in the track of the storm system being through eastern
KS, and have moderate to high confidence that given this track,
temperature profiles will support rain in the forecast area
through the majority of the storm system. The one exception may be
over north central and far northeast KS as precipitation is
winding down on Monday when some light snow may mix in for a bit.
Much of the forecast area can expect 0.25 to 0.75 inches of liquid
precipitation with this storm system before it exits the area late
Monday. The airmass will be a bit cooler for Tuesday and
Wednesday, closer to normal.
The unsettled weather pattern continues for the foreseeable future
with a steady feed of storm systems moving out of the southwestern
CONUS and into the Plains through day 7 and likely beyond. One of
these storm systems will be scheduled for the end of next week
with substantial uncertainty in how it will evolve. Much of this
uncertainty ties to a separate upper level low that will move
along the US/Canada border during the mid week period. So at this
time, the take-away point with this forecast is to expect
precipitation late next week, and whether it falls as rain or
winter precip is still very much in question.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
The forecast will stay with persistence as the RAP and NAM
continue to show a relative minimum in 925MB RH through the
afternoon. Because of this think VFR CIGS will persist with VSBY
gradually improving. May even see the sucker hole to the north
move over the terminals this afternoon. Forecast soundings and
objective MOS guidance continues to point at MVFR conditions
redeveloping this evening. With IFR CIGS and VSBY upstream over
southern KS and northwest OK, this seems reasonable. Confidence in
timing the lower CIGS and VSBY is not that high since models show
a saturated boundary layer even now.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
159 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
LATEST OBS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN KY IS HEADING TOWARD OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THINK THAT WITH WARMING TODAY THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE. IT IS
A MATTER OF HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS. HAVE UPDATED TO BRING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES INTO OUR FAR NW FOR A TIME AROUND MID DAY.
TEMPS ARE SLOWER TO WARM THIS MORNING THAN WAS FORECAST. HAVE CHANGED
THE TEMPORAL TEMPERATURE CURVE TO REFLECT THIS. HAVE NOT CHANGED THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS AT THIS POINT...WAITING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH
STRONGER WARMING ONCE THE SUN GETS HIGHER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
TOUCHED UP THE T/TD GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. ACCORDINGLY...READINGS
EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS
TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ON THE RIDGES.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT DEPICTING THE SLOW RETREAT
OF THE DEEP AND BLOCKY NORTHEASTERN LOW. WHILE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE PATTERN WILL BE STARVED OF MID LEVEL ENERGY AND HEIGHTS WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR TODAY THIS WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY. IT WILL ALSO MEAN A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THAT A THICK LAYER OF LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...
PERHAPS HOLDING ON THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SO...DESPITE THE HIGH
PRESSURE THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RUIN WHAT SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY
AND ALSO KEEP SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH MORE
THAN THEY WILL THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE TAKEN THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND MADE
SOME SUCH PESSIMISTIC ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN FACT...
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT POCKETS OF DRIZZLE FALLING OUT OF THESE
LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS WITH SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS MADE TONIGHT...MAINLY
EARLY. AS FOR POPS AND WX...KEPT THEM LOW AND NON-EXISTENT FRIDAY
GIVEN THE HIGH PRESSURE REGIME NOW IN PLACE...AND IN LINE WITH SINGLE
DIGIT MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES INTO
THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL EXHIBIT A PATTERN OF CHANGE AS THE
NOREASTER FINALLY STARTS ITS SHIFT EASTWARD...AND ALLOWS FOR A
CHANGING AND LESS SETTLING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
WHILE THE NOREASTER IS BREWING JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH WILL BEGIN IMPOSING ON THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES STRENGTHENING INTO CLOSED LOWS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 0 AND 12Z SUNDAY. AS THEY SHIFT EASTWARD...THIS
WILL PUSH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND KEEP CALM CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE ONLY
CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POPS/MOISTURE TO ROUND THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE TROUGH /NAMELY POINTS TO OUR NORTH/. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...KEPT IN PLACE BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THIS
MOISTURE WILL FINALLY DEPART BY MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
JUST TO OUR EAST...AND WE START TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE
INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FIRST CLOSED LOW.
BY 12Z MONDAY...THIS LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE SECONDARY CLOSED LOW TO IT/S
NE. AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ENSUE ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BOOST TEMPS UP INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE CWA...AS WELL AS PULL IN MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF COAST. WHILE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE US CLEARING OUT IN THE LOW LEVELS MONDAY
WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE INDUCED INVERSION...IN
THE UPPER LEVELS CLOUDS WILL BEGIN THICKENING AGAIN. THIS LAST MODEL
RUN...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FINALLY COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT
FOR THE START AND END TIMES OF THIS PRECIP BAND. BOTH SHOW THE
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z TUESDAY.
ORIGINALLY...THE GFS CUT PRECIP POTENTIAL OFF BY 0Z
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HELD ONTO UPSLOPE PRECIP SOME 12 HOURS
LONGER. WITH THIS LATEST MODEL RUN...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE ECMWF IS
NOW STEERING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...WHICH IS A BIT
SURPRISING CONSIDERING THAT THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE. AS
SUCH...KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND /INCLUDING THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE
ECMWF/...IN WHICH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN MAY LINGER OVER THE SE
HIGH TERRAIN TIL AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
ANOTHER...MORE MILD...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ACROSS KY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS BY
THIS POINT...SO WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/S
FORECAST WAS ALTERED AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS IT IS
NOW...A SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY FRIDAY...BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE REGION. REGARDLESS...THE LACK OF
LARGE VARIATIONS ALOFT...AS WELL AS CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER...WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT. A LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NW DURING THE NIGHT AND BRING LOW MVFR AND POCKETS OF
IFR CEILINGS. TENTATIVE TIMING HAS IT ARRIVING IN THE VICINITY OF
MOUNT STERLING AND MOREHEAD AROUND 05Z...AND REACHING THE VA BORDER
AROUND 10Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING. LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY...BUT MAY SHOW SOME RETREAT IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE AROUND MIDDLESBORO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL PLAGUE MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATE AFTN UPDATE FEATURED ADJUSTMENTS TO CLD COVER AND TEMPS
AS CLD DECK HAS RETREATED NWD ON THE STRENGTH OF BACKED FLOW IN
ADVN OF A WEAK SHRTWV. USED HRRR MSTR PROGS TO REFILL THE CLDS LTR
THIS EVE WITH PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE.
PREVIOUS...
BLDG HIGH PRES ALOFT WL ENSURE A LACK OF MEASURABLE PCPN FOR THE
UPR OH REGION...BUT MSTR TRAPPED UNDR A LOW INVERSION LVL WL CONT
TO SUPPLY STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH TNGT. A MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS INCLUDED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TNGT...BUT
DO ANTICIPATE TRAVEL ISSUES AT MOMENT...HENCE WL ABSTAIN FM AN
ADVISORY HEADLINE AS AN EVE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT SHOULD
SUFFICE SHOULD PATCHY DVLPMNT OCCUR.
GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLD COVER PROJECTED IN THE NR TERM PD...HAVE
TWEAKED THE HIGH TO LOW SPREAD CLOSER WITH PERSISTENCE AND
INCOMING GUIDANCE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS...ANALYZED OVR THE HIGH PLNS AREA
TDA...IS FORECAST TO BLD EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
ADVNG TROF OFF THE PACIFIC. A DROUGHT OF MEASURABLE PCPN WL THUS
ENSUE...BUT MSTR IS FORECAST TO RMN TRAPPED UNDR THE SBSDNC
INVERSION...POSSIBLY INTO LATE SUNDAY...WHEN WIND AT THE TOP OF
THE SHALLOW BNDRY LYR IS DECISIVELY FORECAST TO BACK TO THE SW AND
END COLD REINFORCEMENT AT THE TOP OF THAT LYR. WL THUS CONT A PESSIMISTIC
CLD FORECAST WITH A SUB AVG TEMP FORECAST AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE ON SATURDAY NGT.
BY MONDAY...MDL WORLD INDICATES THE AFOREMENTIONED W COAST TROF
AXIS DVLPG TWD THE WRN LAKES AND LOWER OHIO REGIONS. WARM ADVCTN
IN ADVN OF THAT FEATURE SHOULD FINALLY MODERATE TEMPS...WITH PCPN
CHCS HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE APCH OF THAT SYSTEMS ATTENDANT CDFNT ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MID LVL LOW PRES CNTR OF THE ORIGINAL UPR TROF IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST ACRS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...SUFFICIENTLY W TO
ENSURE ANY ASSOCIATED PCPN WL FALL AS RAIN OVR THE UPR OH REGION.
A LATE WEEK SHRTWV MAY STILL SPAWN SOME PCPN CHCS...SO NO MAJOR
ALTERATIONS WERE THUS NEEDED FOR THE LONG TERM PD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU/AREAS OF IFR STRATUS WL CONT TO PLAGUE UPR OH
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY AS LLVL MSTR RMNS TRAPPED UNDR A SBSDNC
INVERSION. CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TDA TO INCLUDE IFR DEGRADATION
TNGT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRATUS...STRATOCU RESTRICTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO SUNDAY WITH GENL IMPROVEMENT INDICATED BY MONDAY AS OVRALL
BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE SW IN ADVN OF A MIDWRN SHRTWV.
HOWEVER...RESTRICTION POTENTIAL IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY
WITH THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1242 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MOST OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE
TAF PERIOD AS VERY LOW INVERSION HEIGHT SUPPORTS BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT...THIS WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION AND LOWER CIGS
FURTHER AS THE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS. THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN THE STRATUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SE MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN JUST DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THIS POSITIONING SUSTAINING A
NORTHWEST FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER MARKING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE
BURGEONING INVERSION LAYER ABOVE 925 MB WILL TRANSLATE INTO A STABLE
PROFILE TODAY. HOWEVER CLOUD TRENDS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING ISSUE
AS A PERIOD OF WEAK 925 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION/THERMAL TROUGHING
WORKING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE PERIPHERY
EFFECTIVELY SATURATES THE THIN 925-950 MB SUB-INVERSION LAYER.
RECENT NAM AND RAP RH FIELDS AT THIS LEVEL CORRESPOND WELL WITH THE
SOUTHWARD EXPANDING SOLID STRATUS DECK NOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO HOLD FIRM OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WELL
INTO THE DAY. THE OVERALL SETUP POINTS TOWARD SEEING A DEFINITIVE
SOUTHWEST EDGE TO THE STRATUS DECK...PROVIDING SOME UNCERTAINTY YET
IN POTENTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE FOR LOCALES TOWARD THE SOUTH. THESE
TRENDS SUPPORT TAKING A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH ON HIGHS
TODAY...READINGS MAINLY MID 30S.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO DIMINISH THE CLOUD
COVERAGE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY LOW ON
THE CLOUD TRENDS GOING FORWARD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR THE EXISTING MOIST LAYER TO HOLD FIRM BENEATH THE
INVERSION...LEAVING A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SOCKED UNDER A
PERSISTENT OVERCAST CONDITION. PLAN TO LEAN IN THIS DIRECTION AT
THIS TIME. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FIRMLY IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ALL THE
WAY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD SATURDAY
BY THE POWERFUL PACIFIC COAST STORM AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL
GUARD SE MICHIGAN FROM ANY POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
AND GUIDE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OVERALL
OPTIMISM IN THE FORECAST WILL BE TEMPERED BY AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS EACH DAY. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A GLOOMY DAY FULL OF
CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE SOFTENED BY MAX TEMPS PUSHING THE MID 40S OR
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND WEEKEND OF DECEMBER.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
CANADA. THESE CLOUDS WERE STRONGLY RESISTANT TO THE INFLUENCE OF
DIURNAL WARMING DURING THURSDAY...A STRONG SIGN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LOCKED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. EXPECT THE ENTIRE PATTERN TO
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY AND SATURDAY AND BRING OUR AREA UNDER
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE INCONSISTENT COVERAGE OFF THE LAKES WHILE THERE IS STILL A
NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BUT THEN SURGE LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ALLOW A BACKING WIND FIELD OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. A FEW
100THS QPF INDICATED ACROSS THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT UNDER DRY
850-500 MB LAYER RH...IS A GOOD INDICATOR OF DRIZZLE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS IS BACKED UP BY SREF ENSEMBLE SOUNDINGS
THAT SHOW DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME WITH A
STEEP INVERSION AND MODEST SPEED SHEAR. EXPECT ALL BUT THE MOST
SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE THUMB WILL BE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY MAKING FREEZING POTENTIAL A MINIMAL CONCERN BEFORE
READINGS REACH THE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONLY DROP BACK TO
AROUND 40 SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE POWERFUL PACIFIC COAST STORM MOVING INLAND TODAY WILL REACH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT IS IMPROVING BUT STILL
SHOWS DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ON THE EASTWARD PACE OF THE SYSTEM.
PREFER SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR THE GREAT LAKES GIVEN THE CONTINUED HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY THE FORMIDABLE RIDGE AXIS
AND NOR` EASTER COMBO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. SLOWER TIMING WILL
HELP ENSURE A SHORT WAVE TRACK TO OUR WEST AND A WARM OUTCOME FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE. OUR GOING FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED WELL WITH
ALL RAIN CENTERED ON TUESDAY IN SE MICHIGAN. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO A BLOCKING PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BUT
CHAOTIC MODEL DEPICTIONS SUGGEST THE LOCATION OF EVEN THE LARGER
SCALE UPPER AIR FEATURES ARE IN QUESTION.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR OUTER SAGINAW BAY
AROUND TO HARBOR BEACH FOR LINGERING ROUGH WATER DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. A SLOWLY DECREASING DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND AND WAVES WILL
CONTINUE OVER ALL MARINE AREAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. MILDER AIR STREAMING INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO STABLE PROFILES...AND CORRESPONDING LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
308 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...CLOUDS...FOG POTENTIAL AND TEMPERATURES ARE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE HRRR AND NAM
VISIBILITY PROGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A THREAT OF FOG...POSSIBLY
DENSE...THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z CST SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
CONTINUED TAP OF BL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS ARE PROGGING FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH KEITH COUNTY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
SANDHILLS FOR THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF DENSE /ADVISORY CRITERIA/
FOG. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...WE/RE EXPECTING A THIN LINE OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOG TO FORM JUST ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
GREATEST MOISTURE PUSH /FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS/. SINCE THE EXPECTED ADVISORY CRITERIA FOG TONIGHT WILL
BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW AND WAIT
TO SEE HOW THE TRENDS PLAY OUT. REGARDLESS...THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE FOR AREAS OR
WIDESPREAD 1SM FOG /OR LESS/ FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 61. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY IS SHOWN TO IMPROVE BEYOND 15Z SATURDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER BUFR SOUNDINGS EAST OF A KLBF TO KANW LINE KEEP
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRATUS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS TD/S IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A KMCK TO KLBF TO KANW LINE.
INTERESTINGLY...OVER THE PAST TEN YEARS...KLBF HAS NOT RECORDED A
40F OR HIGHER TD/S DURING THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THESE ANOMALOUSLY
WARM TD/S WILL COMBINE WITH THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER OUR
EAST. THESE PROJECTED VALUES ARE UP TO 10F WARMER THAN WHAT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. HIGHS SATURDAYS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS...BUT WARM YET INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
AS THE UPPER TROUGH COMES ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT...
CYCLOGENESIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO OR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
AS THE CYCLONE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING...THE MOIST TRAJECTORY TURNS WESTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN THE 295-300K LAYER SHOW
THAT. FOR ACTUAL MOISTURE...MIXING RATIOS OF 3-6G/KG CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE LIFT OF THE NEARLY SATURATED AIR REACHES INTO THE
DENDRITIC LAYER BUT THERE IS A WARM LAYER ACCORDING TO THE MEAN
0-2KM TEMPERATURE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW 0C...SO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN AT LEAST INITIALLY. BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...THE MEAN
0-2KM TEMPERATURE DECREASES TO BELOW 0C SO THE CHANGEOVER SHOULD
OCCUR IN THAT TIME WINDOW. THE CYCLONE WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DURING THAT PERIOD...THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS SHOULD
BRING THE SNOW TO AN END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. USING A SNOW/LIQUID RATIO OF 9/1 INITIALLY IT
APPEARS THAT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES IN
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THOUGH WE HAVE ONLY MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THAT AMOUNT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN...THE IMPACT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT EVEN WHERE THE SNOW TOTALS ARE
3 INCHES OR LESS. WITH THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN
KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...THE STORM MAY TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK. THUS...THE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL QUITE HIGH. IN FACT THE SWATH
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM TRACK IS THE WIDTH OF STATE OR A
LITTLE BROADER.
AFTER THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PASSES...ANOTHER TROUGH MAY SWING
ACROSS THE REGION AND IT COULD BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS IT SWINGS THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...ONLY THE NAM SHOWS THAT
FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING
KLBF...WILL SLOWLY LIFT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATUS BREAKS UP.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF VFR FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE FOG AND STRATUS RETURN.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE RECURRENCE OF IFR...ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FOR
KLBF...KIML...AND KBBW...BUT ALSO INCLUDED KVTN IN LIFR AS THAT
TERMINAL WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE EDGE OF THE THICKEST FOG AND LOWEST
CEILINGS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1132 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS AMPLIFYING. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A
STRONG TROUGH MOVES ON SHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. AT THE SURFACE...WE REMAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS WE ARE SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS AND
SOME FOG. THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS WELL WEST OF THE CWA. BECAUSE
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS SO FAR WEST...I HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF
OUR FOG ADVISORY...RELEGATED TO OUR 3 FARTHEST WEST COUNTIES...AND
THIS MAY IN ITSELF BE A VERY CHEAP FOG ADVISORY...WHERE IT IS
STARTING TO LOOK MORE DOUBTFUL THAT EVEN THESE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE
DENSE FOG. WE ARE ACTUALLY GETTING LOWER VISIBILITY IN OUR
SOUTH...AS MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH OCCURS. THE CLOSEST
DENSE FOG IS IN IMPERIAL AND GOODLAND...STILL A FAIR DISTANCE AWAY.
THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS MODEL FOR THE MOST PART INTO THE
AFTERNOON. I WENT CLOSER TO THE ADJECEBC SOLUTION FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...CONSIDERING ITS STRONGER SHOWING RECENTLY...ALTHOUGH I DID
BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE THAN WHAT THIS SOLUTION ORIGINALLY
HAD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. WE SHOULD REMAIN SOCKED WITHIN STRATUS
FOR THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. MORE DRIZZLE AND FOG IS IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS REVEAL LIGHT QPF TONIGHT...EVEN THE
ECMWF. THE PROBLEM WILL BE WITH THE DEPTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. THIS IS A LIMITING FACTOR...BUT WITH SO MUCH AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS WITH LIGHT QPF...I AM INCLINED TO KEEP IN THE
DRIZZLE...BUT INTRODUCED IT A BIT LATER...IN THE MID-EVENING. FOG
COULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
STRATUS...BUT ONCE AGAIN...IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL BE WEST OF
THE CWA FOR THE MOST PART.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
PATTERN: THE FLOW WILL BE VERY COMPLEX AND AT TIMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE MULTI-DAY ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL/ERN USA WITH
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER CANADA...AND A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE E
PAC. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY WE HAVE SEEN FOR
MUCH-NEEDED MEANINGFUL PRECIP SINCE OCT 22ND. SOME OF IT COULD BE OF
THE WINTRY VARIETY.
HIGHLY RECOMMEND THE 1ST PARAGRAPH OF THE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISC
/PMDHMD/ FROM WPC. IT HAS AN EXCELLENT OVERVIEW OF MODEL TRENDS FOR
THE SYSTEM SUN-MON.
ALOFT: HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO THE ERN USA SAT-SUN AS
THE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE INTO CA HEADS E THRU THE DESERT SW
AND EJECTS NE ACROSS KS SUN-MON. A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION TUE-THU WITH ANOTHER TROF MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW.
SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE ERN USA SAT WITH GRADUAL
EASTWARD PROGRESSION SUN-MON. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS
WAY THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W WILL MOVE THRU HERE SUN WITH THE LEE-
SIDE LOW OVER CO MERGING WITH THE FRONT...MOVING ACROSS KS SUN NIGHT
AND INTO IA MON. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TUE AND SINKS INTO THE
NRN PLAINS WED-THU.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT-SUN OR VERY
CLOSE TO IT. WE CONT TO FCST RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS BOTH SAT AND SUN.
FOR SUN`S RECORDS TO BE BROKEN...TEMPS MUST STAY ABOVE THE RECORDS
THRU 1159 PM AND WE WILL BE COLD ADVECTING SUN EVE.
RECORD WARM LOWS
SAT 12/13 SUN 12/14
GRI 37 - 1896 39 - 1896
HSI 36 - 1921 36 - 1928
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE SAT`S RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN AND MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE FOR SUN`S.
SAT: NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE FROM THU OR FRI. CLOUDY WITH AM FOG/MIST.
AM NOT CONVINCED ON DRZL POTENTIAL. MOISTURE DEPTH CASTS DOUBT SO
DRZL WAS DOWNGRADED TO JUST A "CHANCE".
SUN: LATE DAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER CLOUDY START WITH AM
FOG/MIST. AN FGEN-DRIVEN COMMAHEAD BAND OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER KS
AND LIFT NORTHWARD PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HRS. BOTH THE
EC/GFS INDICATE SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES TURNING SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. SO THUNDER IS NOW IN THE FCST FOR N-CNTRL KS TO COVER
THIS POSSIBILITY.
SUN NIGHT: IT`S A RACE TO SEE HOW FAST THE COLD AIR CAN WRAP INTO
THE COMMAHEAD AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME. SUGGEST EVERYONE
INTERESTED IN THIS POTENTIAL CONT TO MONITOR LATER FCSTS AND PREPARE
FOR PLOWABLE SNOW POSSIBILITY. HIGHEST PROBABLY IS CURRENTLY N AND W
OF THE TRI-CITIES.
FOR NOW MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW EXCEPT THE SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA...
ROUGHLY S OF A LINE FROM OSBORNE KS-YORK NE.
MON: BLUSTERY AND COLDER. POSSIBLY A LITTLE LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW AS
THE LOW DEPARTS WRN IA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TUE: DRY BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS/CLOUD COVER. EC/GFS CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SUBSTANTIAL MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS UNDER
A STRONG 110KT JET.
WED: DRY AND PROBABLY A LOT OF CLOUDS.
WED NIGHT-THU: WE CURRENTLY HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW BUT IT
LOOKS DOUBTFUL BASED ON THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH SUGGESTS THIS
NEXT DESERT SW SYSTEM REMAINS SUPPRESSED S OF THE FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS AT BOTH
TERMINALS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...THANKS TO NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN. CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH THINGS WILL IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP WITH CEILINGS...IS NOT HIGH...AND KEPT THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS MFVR. WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...AS THERE ARE BATCHES OF BOTH HIGHER AND LOWER THAN
FORECAST CEILINGS IN THE AREA. EXPECTING THINGS TO DETERIORATE
AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS MODELS SHOW THE LOWER LEVEL
STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. KEPT THINGS SIMILAR TO
INHERITED TAF AND WHAT BOTH SITES SAW THIS MORNING. SIMILAR TO
TODAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE IN THE LATER PORTIONS
OF THE TAF. AS FAR AS WINDS GO...WITH NO OVERALL CHANGE IN THE
SURFACE PATTERN...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADP
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
114 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY PULLING EAST AND LOSING INFLUENCE
ON DAILY WEATHER CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS
THE NORTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS DRIER
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR
TO READINGS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
WINTER NORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1219 PM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230 UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A DUSTING
TO TWO INCHES LOOKS GOOD.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EST FRIDAY... BROKEN RECORD FORECAST
CONTINUES TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STATIONARY OCCLUSION REMAINING
ATOP OR JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES DROPPING SOUTHWARD
WILL COMBINE TO KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OR PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LESS OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. ALSO INTRODUCED THE CHANCE FOR SOME INTERMITTENT -FZDZ
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE RAP SOUNDING PROFILES
SUGGEST AN UNSATURATED SNOW GROWTH ZONE THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE UPPER PATTERN...TEMPERATURES ALSO GOING
NOWHERE AND NEARLY IDENTICAL TO READINGS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S DURING THE DAY AND SETTLING
BACK INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST FRIDAY...BY SATURDAY MODEL SUITE SHOWING GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT OUR PESKY UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL
EASTWARD SUCH THAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND OVERALL INFLUENCE WILL WANE
OVER TIME. STILL COULD SEE SOME LINGERING NRN MTN FLURRY/SHSN
ACTIVITY HERE AND THERE...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BY AND LARGE BE
LESS THAN TODAY WITH BROADER VALLEYS MAINLY DRY. LIGHT WINDS AND
LACK OF THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES MEAN NO AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES...YOU GUESSED IT...NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST FINALLY BEGINS
TO MAKE INROADS EAST AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY
OFFSHORE. A SOMEWHAT TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS
OFFERED ON DEGREE OF COOLING. POTENTIAL BUST WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN POSSIBLE CLEARING AND FRESH SNOW COVER...SO
WILL LEAN CONSERVATIVELY TOWARD A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE SHOWING
VARIABLE CLOUDS THINNING ONLY SLOWLY AND LOW TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
COLDER THAN TONIGHT...UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S OR SO.
ON SUNDAY DEEP LEVEL RIDGING MAKES FURTHER PROGRESS INTO THE
REGION WITH CONTINUED DRYING THROUGH THE PBL AND INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUN AS UPPER FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC/SUBSIDENT. 850 MB
RESPOND AND RANGE FROM 0C TO +5C EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH A SHALLOW
MIXED LAYER TO ONLY 1500 FEET OR SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT THOSE READINGS WOULD NORMALLY INDICATE WITH MOST SPOTS
TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE 30S. STILL QUITE A NICE DAY THOUGH WITH
THE SUNSHINE BEING WELCOME AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF HIDING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST FRIDAY...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS WEAKLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA. THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS THAT SNOWS SHOWERS WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THE MODELS DIVULGE WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE ECMWF BRINGING A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM THROUGH. THE ECMWF KEEPS SHOWERS IN THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY WHEREAS THE GFS IS QUICKER TO DRY OUT. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER BACK INTO THE AREA WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
LITTLE TO NO ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN WITH FRONT SO AT THIS POINT WE
DONT EXPECT ANY SURGES OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM
MVFR TO IFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING. RISK OF IFR WILL BE
HIGHEST THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE DECREASING DURING SATURDAY WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING MVFR
TO VFR AT MSS/PBG/RUT DURING THE MORNING...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY AT REST OF SITES. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SAT - 06Z SUN...LINGERING MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
06Z SUN - 00Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.
00Z WED - 00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1220 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY PULLING EAST AND LOSING INFLUENCE
ON DAILY WEATHER CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS
THE NORTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS DRIER
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR
TO READINGS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
WINTER NORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1219 PM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230 UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A DUSTING
TO TWO INCHES LOOKS GOOD.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EST FRIDAY... BROKEN RECORD FORECAST
CONTINUES TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STATIONARY OCCLUSION REMAINING
ATOP OR JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES DROPPING SOUTHWARD
WILL COMBINE TO KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OR PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LESS OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. ALSO INTRODUCED THE CHANCE FOR SOME INTERMITTENT -FZDZ
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE RAP SOUNDING PROFILES
SUGGEST AN UNSATURATED SNOW GROWTH ZONE THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE UPPER PATTERN...TEMPERATURES ALSO GOING
NOWHERE AND NEARLY IDENTICAL TO READINGS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S DURING THE DAY AND SETTLING
BACK INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST FRIDAY...BY SATURDAY MODEL SUITE SHOWING GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT OUR PESKY UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL
EASTWARD SUCH THAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND OVERALL INFLUENCE WILL WANE
OVER TIME. STILL COULD SEE SOME LINGERING NRN MTN FLURRY/SHSN
ACTIVITY HERE AND THERE...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BY AND LARGE BE
LESS THAN TODAY WITH BROADER VALLEYS MAINLY DRY. LIGHT WINDS AND
LACK OF THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES MEAN NO AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES...YOU GUESSED IT...NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST FINALLY BEGINS
TO MAKE INROADS EAST AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY
OFFSHORE. A SOMEWHAT TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS
OFFERED ON DEGREE OF COOLING. POTENTIAL BUST WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN POSSIBLE CLEARING AND FRESH SNOW COVER...SO
WILL LEAN CONSERVATIVELY TOWARD A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE SHOWING
VARIABLE CLOUDS THINNING ONLY SLOWLY AND LOW TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
COLDER THAN TONIGHT...UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S OR SO.
ON SUNDAY DEEP LEVEL RIDGING MAKES FURTHER PROGRESS INTO THE
REGION WITH CONTINUED DRYING THROUGH THE PBL AND INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUN AS UPPER FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC/SUBSIDENT. 850 MB
RESPOND AND RANGE FROM 0C TO +5C EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH A SHALLOW
MIXED LAYER TO ONLY 1500 FEET OR SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT THOSE READINGS WOULD NORMALLY INDICATE WITH MOST SPOTS
TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE 30S. STILL QUITE A NICE DAY THOUGH WITH
THE SUNSHINE BEING WELCOME AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF HIDING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST FRIDAY...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS WEAKLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA. THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS THAT SNOWS SHOWERS WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THE MODELS DIVULGE WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE ECMWF BRINGING A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM THROUGH. THE ECMWF KEEPS SHOWERS IN THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY WHEREAS THE GFS IS QUICKER TO DRY OUT. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER BACK INTO THE AREA WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
LITTLE TO NO ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN WITH FRONT SO AT THIS POINT WE
DONT EXPECT ANY SURGES OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM SITE TO SITE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH BOUTS
OF IFR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AT KMPV. MVFR
CONDITIONS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AT KRUT. IFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AT KMSS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILING WILL OCCUR AT KSLK. AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO JUST SLOWLY MEANDER AROUND THERE WILL BE
SOME SCATTED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER MAINLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. AFTER 18Z THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED SURGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHERN VT SITES. FOR KMSS A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS BROUGHT IN A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITIES
AND CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS WITH
PERIODS OF IFR VIS ARE FZDZ AND SNOW FAIL THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SCATTERED...BUT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
12Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
06Z SUNDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED.
00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH PERIOD OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
107 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND PASS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 850 AM FRIDAY...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THAT HELPED PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC
CIRRUS TOWARD THE TRIAD AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. THE RAP PLAN VIEW LAYER MOISTURE PRODUCTS SEEMED TO
BE DEPICTING THE TREND OF THESE CLOUDS FAIRLY WELL. AS THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE PASSES THROUGH AS IT IS CURRENTLY...AND AS FORECAST BY THE
RAP...THE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD THE TRIAD SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE.
AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT
AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL ALSO WANE AS THE CLOUDS MOVE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE THE WAVE. AREA UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW
WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE TO AROUND 25KT...AND FORECAST 925MB WINDS
TO 20KT ALONG WITH 850MB TO 30KT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTINESS OF
THE WINDS WITH MIXING...WITH RAP SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING. MORNING AND FORECAST
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS NEARER THE HIGHER MAV MOS
GUIDANCE...AND WILL WATCH TRENDS DURING THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY
RAISE MAXES A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THE PLANNED LATE-MORNING UPDATE. -DJF
BY TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS...THIS
TIME RESULTING FROM ADVECTION OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER ONTARIO.
BUT AGAIN... ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THIN
AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF NC WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND SUBSIDENCE PERSISTING ALOFT. WITH WINDS GOING CALM (OR NEARLY
SO) WITH GOOD DECOUPLING AND SCANT CLOUDINESS... WILL GO A BIT BELOW
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... 27-31.
FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT: MORE OF THE SAME. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER WRN KY/TN
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST... BANKING UP AGAINST THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH SAT NIGHT... AND WITH THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST HAVING DRIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE... THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL STEADILY SLACKEN. AGAIN EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDS ON SAT. THE MIXED LAYER
GETS EVEN SHALLOWER WITH ONGOING SINKING OF THE VERY WARM LAYER JUST
OFF THE SURFACE... AND THE THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS OF 53-59. HAVE STAYED JUST UNDER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ONCE
AGAIN WITH EXPECTATIONS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS SAT NIGHT
28-33. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
A DEEP HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
INCLUDING CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. NORMALLY THIS PATTERN WOULD SIGNAL A WARMING TREND BUT CLEAR
SKIES ON SUNDAY WILL BE REPLACED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON
MONDAY AND MAX TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY FALL A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY
ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH. EXPECT MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WITH MONDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY. LOWS
WILL MODERATE FROM NEAR FREEZING ON MONDAY MORNING TO THE MIDDLE 30S
BY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
SLOWER TIMING IN THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE WEST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM
ALREADY HAD BAD DYNAMICS WITH IT AND NOW DIURNAL TIMING DOES NOT
LOOK VERY FAVORABLE AS IT IS NOW PROGGED TO COME THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT IS THAT BOTH MODELS ARE NOW
VERY SPARSE WITH THE PRECIPIATION WITH THE RANGE FROM NONE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS NOT GREAT AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AS THE 500 MB PATTERN IS VERY
ZONAL. WITH THE LATER TIMING EXPECT TEMPS ON TUESDAY TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SKY CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND TEMPS
TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S WITH GOOD INSOLATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A SMALL AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS ACTUALLY WILL INITIATE SOME DEEPER
LAYER COLD AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...MAINLY LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY WHICH COULD INCREASE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS TO BROKEN
FOR A PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF THAT TOWARD THE TRIAD.
STILL...SOLIDLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER A WIND THAT WILL VEER
NORTHWEST BY EVENING AND AVERAGE UNDER 5KT OVERNIGHT. WITH MIXING
SATURDAY MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5 AND
10KT.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS...LIKELY MVFR...
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT PRESENT. SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHWEST AND SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DJF/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1228 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN. THE CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AROUND MID-AFTERNOON...BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL RE-DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET.
ELSEWHERE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA STILL
ON TAP TO REACH RECORD TEMPERATURES...AS LAST HOUR DICKINSON
REACHED 52 DEGREES WHERE THE RECORD IS 54.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG EXTENDING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
MORNING UPDATE WILL ADDRESS THIS AND KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG GOING
UNTIL MID-DAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST CLOUD
COVER A BIT TO COMPENSATE FOR THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
AREAS OF FOG PERSIST ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. VISIBILITIES
VARY FROM ONE HALF TO A MILE AT TIMES AND THE PERSISTENT FOG IS
PRODUCING SOME FROST ON ROADS. OTHERWISE HIGH SEMI THIN CLOUDS
COVERING THE WEST AND CENTRAL. STILL LOOKING FOR WARM POSSIBLY
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE...SLICK ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE DUE TO FROST FORMATION...WIDESPREAD
FOG ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ALTHOUGH NOT DENSE...THE TIMING
OF THE FOG/STRATUS ERODING TODAY AND ITS EFFECT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...NEAR RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED...VERY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS TRANQUIL IN TERMS OF
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS OR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE FOG ALONG
WITH THE FROST AND RESULTANT SLIPPERY ROADS AND SIDEWALKS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP IS BEING OVERSHADOWED BY SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS/STRATUS
CLOUDS ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR MILES
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR CIG AND VSBY
FORECAST SHOW THIS AREA MAINLY REMAINING IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN SHRINKING/ERODING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN
THIS OCCURS...AND CURRENT TIMING OF PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE 925MB TEMPS NEARLY THE SAME TODAY AS
THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH VERY SHALLOW MIXING AT
BEST. 24HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS AT DICKINSON AND HETTINGER THIS
MORNING ARE NEARLY THE SAME OR A BIT COOLER THAN AT THE SAME TIME
YESTERDAY. WILL TREND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE
THURSDAY. DICKINSON REMAINS ON TRACK TO JUST BREAK ITS RECORD OF
54F SET BACK IN 1924...AS TODAYS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH 55F.
ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE WARMER BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS FOG MAY MAKE A RETURN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
MODELS BRING AN H500 TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US SATURDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY BY TUESDAY AND THEN EVENTUALLY
FORM A REX BLOCK BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. DURING THIS PROCESS A COLD
FRONT WILL INITIALLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT BRINGING SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY. COOLER AIR
WILL FLOW THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY SETTING UP A
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ONE VERSION...THE CANADIAN GEM...SETS UP THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION THEN FORMS ACROSS THIS AREA AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW SWINGS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE GEM IS ALSO
SLOWER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF AND APPEARS TO BE THE PREFERRED
TREND. WILL SPREAD A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
ON MONDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
THE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT REX BLOCK RESULTS IN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
REGION WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY KEEP MORE
CLOUDS BUT LITTLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING THE KJMS TERMINAL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1130 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO HANG IN ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN AREA THAT HAS CLEARED
OUT PARTS OF ROBERTS AND GRANT COUNTIES. THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE STRATUS AREA LOOKS TO NOW BE ERODING...SO WILL STICK WITH A
GRADUAL EROSION OF THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SAME OLD STORY WITH THE FORECAST TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED OVER THE EASTERN CWA. AS EXPECTED...STRATUS CLOUDS
HAVE EXPANDED BACK TO THE WEST INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH...WESTWARD PROGRESSION IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME WHEN CLOUDS REACHED BACK AS FAR WEST AS THE MISSOURI
RIVER. THIS MAY MEAN A QUICKER CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...BUT STILL HAVE A FEW HOURS TO GO BEFORE WESTWARD EXPANSION
STOPS. HAVE BEEN CLOSELY FOLLOWING 950 MB RH FIELDS AND ESPECIALLY
THE HRRR LOW LEVEL CLOUD PRODUCT...WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING
TREMENDOUSLY DURING THIS STRATUS EVENT. THE HRRR NAILED YESTERDAYS
EROSION PATTERN WHICH FIRST CLEARED OUT FSD CWA THEN SHIFTED IT
NORTH TO PARTS OF NORTHEAST SD. IT IS ONCE AGAIN SHOWING SOMETHING
SIMILAR TO THIS...FIRST CLEARING OUT FSD AREA THEN WORKING INTO
NORTHEAST SD...BUT MAYBE EVEN AN HOUR OR TWO QUICKER TODAY...WHICH
IS BELIEVABLE IF CLOUDS THIS MORNING DO NOT MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS
YESTERDAY. ALSO SEEING WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ONCE AGAIN...BUT VSBY
NOT REALLY TANKING OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA...JUST THE TYPICAL FOGGY
AREAS AROUND SUMMIT AND THE COTEAU REGION. WEB CAMS NOT REVEALING
ANY SUBSTANTIAL DRIZZLE...AND THAT IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED GIVEN
THE SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER. ALTHOUGH...FOG IS DEPOSITING ON
ROADWAYS WHICH WILL CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS THIS MORNING.
MODELS/SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPS OVER
THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. CENTRAL SD WILL SEE VERY MILD TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
THE SATURATED LAYER BECOMES DEEP ENOUGH BY SATURDAY WHERE DRIZZLE
BECOMES A BIT MORE LIKELY...SO HAVE ADDED THAT INTO THE FORECAST
FOR EASTERN AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TO KEEP EVERYTHING
IN THE LIQUID FORM.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED DIRECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH THE TRACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA. THE MODELS NOW TAKE THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA FARTHER
NORTH TRACKING IT FROM SOUTHERN KS ON SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK PUTS
MOST OF OUR CWA WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF SNOWFALL AS THE GEM...GFS
AND EC ALL SHOW MORE COVERAGE OF QPF. THUS...INCREASED POPS THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE CHANCES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE
INCREASED. WILL HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IF LATER MODEL RUNS SHOW
CONSISTENCY. THIS SYSTEM COULD ALSO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH
IT. OTHERWISE...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THESE MAY BE EVEN
COLDER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IF WE RECEIVE NEW SOME
SNOWFALL. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS WE MIGHT RECEIVE SOME MORE
OVERRUNNING SNOWFALL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
LIFR FOG/STRATUS REMAINS OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE KATY/KABR TAF SITES. SATELLITE IMAGES DO
SHOW SOME EROSION TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS HOWEVER...SO
STILL EXPECTING TO SEE CLEARING AT KABR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DO EXPECT THAT STRATUS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE/MOVE BACK INTO THE KATY/KABR REGION TONIGHT. PIR AND MBG
SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AND REMAIN VFR.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1121 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.AVIATION...
FOG CONDITIONS HAVE FINALLY SCOURED OUT AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
LATE THIS MORNING...THUS LEADING TO VFR VIS. HOWEVER CLOUD DECKS ARE A
DIFFERENT STORY AS MVFR...IFR AND LIFR DECKS PERSISTED AT
KCDS...KPVW AND KLBB RESPECTIVELY...WITH KCDS GOING UP AND DOWN IN
CATEGORY. WILL EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF DECKS IMPROVING TO FEW-SCT
MVFR AT KLBB AND KPVW LATER THIS AFTN...HOWEVER BKN-OVC MVFR TO
IFR DECKS WILL LIKELY HOLD STRONG AT KCDS. TONIGHT...VIS WILL
DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN AT ALL THREE TAF SITES...FALLING TO IFR TO
POSSIBLY VLIFR. CLOUD DECKS WILL ALSO DROP CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT...FALLING TO IFR TO LIFR. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ENDURE. CAN NOT RULE OUT -DZ LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INSERT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014/
SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WERE AGAIN VISITING THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER IN
THE REGION. DENSE FOG WAS NOTED AT KGNC...KHOB AND KCVN...THOUGH AS
OF 09Z ONLY LIGHT FOG /VISIBILITIES AROUND 4 SM/ WAS PRESENT AT KLBB
AND KPVW. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP DO CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND THIS SEEMS VALID GIVEN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WITHIN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT
CLOUD COVER AND FOG COVERAGE IS NOT AS EXTENSIVE IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...THOUGH KCDS HAS BEEN OCCASIONALLY REPORTING DENSE FOG.
GIVEN THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW
/ON THE CAPROCK THROUGH 10 AM/...BUT WILL REASSESS AROUND 6 AM AND
ADJUST IF NEEDED. THE FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT/THIN BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH SUN RETURNING TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA BY
MID-AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY...THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE EXACTLY HOW WARM EACH LOCATION GETS...BUT
MOST SPOTS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
A RELATIVELY NARROW BUT HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH OKLAHOMA TODAY AND THEN
INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WEST TEXAS WEATHER THOUGH
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE LONG NIGHTS
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT. THE MOIST CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD FOR MID-DECEMBER...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S...THOUGH THE NORTHWEST ZONES COULD DIP IN THE 30S.
LONG TERM...
A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO WEST
TEXAS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK OR SO...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DOUSING MUCH OF CALIFORNIA
WILL BE APPROACHING WEST TEXAS BY LATE SATURDAY. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE FROM NRN NM EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO A RAGGED SQUALL-LINE AS
AN INBOUND PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT FOCUSES THE FORCING. WE HAVE
INCREASED AND EXPANDED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. STRONG WIND SHEAR
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND
SOME HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE ACTIVITY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT
OF PRECIP THOUGH...AS THE DRY SLOT SWIFTLY WORKS IN ACROSS WEST
TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY
AFTERNOON AND IT APPEARS THAT ANY WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY BEHIND THE PACIFIC-
FRONT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL BE
MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS
LATE WEDNESDAY. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL SURROUNDS THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM....BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE
A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RAIN COULD MATERIALIZE CENTERED ON
THURSDAY...AND WE/VE ADDED CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR
MOST OF THE FA. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY
THREATEN THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 68 38 67 41 56 / 0 0 0 50 20
TULIA 66 44 69 47 58 / 0 0 0 60 30
PLAINVIEW 65 45 68 48 59 / 0 0 0 50 30
LEVELLAND 67 43 69 47 59 / 0 0 0 50 20
LUBBOCK 66 47 68 50 61 / 0 0 0 50 20
DENVER CITY 67 44 68 45 59 / 0 0 0 40 20
BROWNFIELD 67 45 69 48 61 / 0 0 0 40 20
CHILDRESS 66 49 67 53 66 / 0 10 10 40 70
SPUR 66 49 68 52 65 / 0 0 10 30 40
ASPERMONT 67 51 69 54 68 / 10 0 10 30 50
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1157 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
AIR AND ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NEAR AND ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK. THEREFORE...THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO
A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
CALLS TO CLARK...OLMSTED AND GRANT COUNTIES HAVE REVEALED THE MIST
IS CAUSING A BIT MORE OF A PROBLEM THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
REPORTS OF SLIDE OFFS IN BOTH CLARK AND OLMSTED. DOT ROAD
CONDITION MAPS DEPICT PARTIALLY COVERED IN ICE ROADS ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. END TIME OF 16Z IS BASED ON THE ANTICIPATION OF
SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT...RISING AIR TEMPERATURES AND SOLAR
INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUDS WARMING ROAD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE 12.06Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR
KRST SHOWS WINDS OF ABOUT 10 KNOTS JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE
THE GROUND WITH A TREND OF THESE INCREASING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BREAK THE FOG UP...WHICH HAS
BEEN THE TREND IN THE VISIBILITY OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WHERE
IT HAS IMPROVED TO A MILE AND HALF OR MORE AT ALL THE REPORTING
STATIONS IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...PLAN
TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY.
AFTER THAT...THE CONCERN THEN BECOMES WHEN WILL PRECIPITATION
START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
A LOT OF DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BUT HAVING A HARD TIME
SEEING THE FORCING FOR THIS DRIZZLE. THE RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BE
VERY SLOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA...WHICH ONLY ALLOWS FOR WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH ONLY AROUND 1C/12 HR OR LESS OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BE IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER. THIS REALLY IS
NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH OMEGA AND IN FACT...BOTH THE 12.00Z NAM
AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY SHOW SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DOES TRY TO SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UP
GLIDE ON THE 290K SURFACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. BASED ON
THIS...WILL REMOVE THE DRIZZLE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AND LET IT GO AFTER THAT.
THE OTHER CONCERN WITH SUNDAY IS WITH TEMPERATURES. THE 11.12Z
NAEFS IS SHOWING AN AREA OF 850 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 1 AND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE AREA. SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
PERIOD SHOW THE INVERSION HOLDING PRETTY TIGHT...SO MOST OF THIS
WARM AIR WILL REMAIN TRAPPED ALOFT. THE 12.00Z ECMWF AND GEM MIXED
DOWN THE MOST WARM AIR AND PRODUCE LOWER 50S WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE THE GFS HOLDS IT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S. WILL TRY TO HIT THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD HERE WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
THE FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION STARTS TO
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD THEN LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND CUTTING UNDER THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER OCCURRING FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER DURING THE SAME
TIME PERIOD. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO COME IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ENERGY AND TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA WITH THE GFS
SHOWING THIS TO PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS BUT COULD
BE RATHER STRONG. WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN FORCING...STARTED
INCREASING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE 50
TO 60 PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
WILL THEN HAVE 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
MONDAY AND IF PRESENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...EXPECT THAT THESE
WILL HAVE TO GO HIGHER WITH LATER FORECASTS. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD PRIMARILY BE RAIN THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE COLD AIR STARTS TO COME IN ONCE THE SURFACE LOW
PASSES FOR A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD POSSIBLY START TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS PRETTY LOW BY THEN. THE
ECMWF...GFS AND 12.00Z GEM ALL SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT COMES DOWN FROM CANADA WHICH
RAISES CONSIDERABLE DOUBT ON ANY ONE SOLUTION FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK. SO FOR NOW...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH JUST A
VERY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH TAF PERIOD ARE LIFR/IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST AT RST AND LSE TAF SITES. LATEST METARS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ARE REPORTING CEILING HEIGHTS IN THE LIFR/IFR RANGE AND AT
BOTH TAF SITES. SOME METARS IN NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ARE
REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS AND THESE CONDITIONS COULD LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE LSE TAF SITE. HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE LSE TAF SITE. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUE INCREASING NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. EXPECT CEILING HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLY VISIBILITIES TO LOWER INTO THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES AT
BOTH RST LSE TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014
LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT OUR RECORD HIGHS
ARE 52 AT ROCHESTER AND 56 AT LA CROSSE. THESE RECORDS...AS WELL
AS MANY AROUND OTHER SMALLER CITIES / SITES AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA...WERE SET IN 1998. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST HIGHS STAY BELOW
RECORDS...BUT THERE IS SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE ECMWF
THAT SHOWS POTENTIAL TO GET CLOSE TO OR BREAK THE RECORDS.
SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WE COULD STAND A MUCH BETTER CHANCE AT BREAKING THE RECORD WARM
LOWS FOR SUNDAY. ROCHESTER IS 37 SET IN 1928 WHILE LA CROSSE IS 35
SET IN 2011. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE RECORD WARM LOWS IN THE 30S WHILE
THE FORECAST HAS LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DTJ
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...DTJ
CLIMATE...AJ