Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/10/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
945 PM PST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
SKIRTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE ON MONDAY. A MUCH
STRONGER STORM IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING A THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FOG FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. MERCED IS NOW DRIFTING
IN AND OUT OF DENSE FOG AND HRRR RUNS REMAINS STEADFAST IN
ADDITIONAL FOR FORMATION OVERNIGHT. ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
RESPONSE AND WILL RE-ITERATE MESSAGE ON SOCIAL MEDIA CHANNELS.
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY
STORM BASED ON RE-ASSESSMENT OF GFS/EC ENSEMBLE DATA AND
DETERMINISTIC FORCING PARAMETERS. IN SHORT...GIVEN VERY STRONG
MOISTURE FLUX WITH THE SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL RECORD STRENGTH FOR
DECEMBER /AS MEASURED BY MSLP/ SEEMED PRUDENT. WE ARE HIGHLY
CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...QUESTION IS WHEN
AND HOW MUCH. BUT EVEN NOW THAT WHEN WINDOW IS SHRINKING TO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HOW... COULD BE A NOTABLE EVENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM PST SUN DEC 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BAND AND A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES BRINGING
LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LITTLE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LIMITED AND PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD MITIGATE FOG FORMATION. FOG MAY BE
A BIT MORE PREVALENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND
CLEARER CONDITIONS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT CALIFORNIA AT THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM AT THE MOMENT. DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS. GFS IS ABOUT A DAY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECWF. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF BOTH MODELS FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLUTION
OF THE EC. THUS WILL SLOW THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TO LATE
THURSDAY INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. MODELS ALSO DEVELOP STRONG N-S
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CALIFORNIA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE PROBABLE AHEAD OF
THE STORM ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND TEHACHAPIS ALONG THE GRAPEVINE AREA. BOTH OP MODELS PROG S
FLOW AROUND 50KT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIKELY WITH CURRENT MODELS ESTIMATING 1-2 FEET OF NEW
SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE
BURN SCARS NEAR YOSEMITE ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN INCH...AND
ROCK AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT SUNDAY FOR A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER AND MORE CHANCES FOR NIGHT
AND MORNING SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOG.
&&
.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...DENSE FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...DIFFICULT TO SAY THOUGH IF TERMINAL ON
PERIPHERY OF FOG BANK /FAT AND VIS/ WILL BE IMPACTED. BFL SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY FINE. MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY DECEMBER 8 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN KERN AND KINGS COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 12-07 69:1937 42:1965 52:1950 25:1978
KFAT 12-08 77:2006 42:1965 50:1897 25:1978
KFAT 12-09 70:1950 38:1972 53:1902 23:1972
KBFL 12-07 76:1907 41:1965 53:1950 24:1912
KBFL 12-08 83:1915 43:1965 52:1949 24:1903
KBFL 12-09 74:1979 36:1972 52:1955 24:1923
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY CAZ089>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...INIGUEZ
AVN/FW...INIGUEZ
PREV DISCUSSION...MV
SYNOPSIS...BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1013 AM MST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MST MON DEC 8 2014
FORECAST IS ON TRACK TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. 12Z DENVER SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY SHALLOW INVERSION
SO WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 50S ON MOST OF THE
PLAINS DESPITE THE CLOUDS. DID LOWER A COUPLE DEGREES IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND ADDED A BIT MORE SKY COVER PER LATEST SYNTHETIC
IMAGERY AND HRRR CLOUD COVER PRODUCT...BUT STILL SOME THIN SPOTS
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK. THOSE WILL BREAK BY VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST MON DEC 8 2014
QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHIFTS EAST. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AT UPPER LEVELS...SO EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUD
COVER TO PREVAIL TODAY. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE STATE
TODAY...RESULTING IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SOME HIGHS CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW LOW LYING AREAS TO BE COOL TONIGHT...BUT MILD FOR
DECEMBER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST MON DEC 8 2014
ON TUESDAY MODELS SHOW A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF COLORADO. STRONG PRES FALLS INDUCED BY THE
PASSING WAVE MAY ENHANCE SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ON THE PLAINS OF NERN
COLORADO DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY OF WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.
BY WEDNESDAY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. LOOK FOR A STEADY WARMUP THROUGH FRIDAY. ATMOSPHERE ALSO
REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
LOWERING INTO THE TEENS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WEST-
SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WARMEST AIR ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE OVER
THE CWA ON FRIDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE 700-500MB RIDGE AXIS. THE GFS
700 MB TEMP OVER THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR AT 18Z FRI IS FCST TO BE
AROUND 7C...WHILE THE EC GIVES A 700MB CLOSER TO 9C. BROUGHT DOWN
DRY ADIABATICALLY...WHICH NORMALLY WOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM ON A SUNNY
DAY...DENVER COULD PRESUMABLY HIT A HIGH OF 74 F! KEEP IN MIND
DENVER`S CURRENT RECORD FOR THE 12TH IS 69 F. A STEADY INFLUX CIRRUS
THROUGH THE DAY WILL PROBABLY PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM REACHING THE
70 DEG MARK. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO THE MID AND UPPER 60 F HIGHS
FOR THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. HIGH COUNTRY READINGS WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
ALSO LOOK QUITE WARM WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THE NORM. LASTLY...
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY ARE ESSENTIALLY NIL.
ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OUT MAKING WAY FOR A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS...
EC...GEM AND FIM MODELS ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS TROUGH MOVING OVER
COLORADO DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER IN THE PAST 24 HOURS THESE SAME
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE BUSINESS END OF THIS TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH.
A CLOSED 500 LOW OVER THE 4-CORNERS SAT NIGHT QUICKLY TRACKS SEWRD
TO OVER SERN NEW MEX BY MID-DAY SUNDAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL
RUN. JUST 24-36 HRS AGO HALF OF THESE MODELS SHOWED THE UPPER LOW
MUCH CLOSER OVER SERN COLORADO. WITH PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD STILL PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. WHEREAS THE
PLAINS WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
MAINLY ON SUNDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW. EXPECT COOLER 50S ON THE PLAINS
SATURDAY DUE MAINLY TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND ONLY UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S WILL BE COMMON IN THE HIGH COUNTRY BOTH
DAYS. BY LATE ON SUNDAY...ITS POSSIBLE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING DOWN FROM
WYOMING ON GUSTY NLY WINDS. RIGHT NOW...THIS STORM SYSTEM DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE THE BIG SNOW MAKER IT ONCE DID. OH WELL...MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER MOISTURE PACKED PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WAITING OFF THE WEST
COAST NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MST MON DEC 8 2014
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 6 KNOTS WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT
DIURNAL EAST/NORTHEASTERLIES THIS AFTERNOON. BACK TO NORMAL
DRAINAGE WINDS TONIGHT BUT PERHAPS A BIT LATER TOWARD 02Z-04Z
GIVEN LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH ONLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 14000 AGL.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
107 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND
TRACK UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW OVER SUFFOLK COUNTY SHOULD TRANSFER OVER TO LIGHT RAIN
WITH PERHAPS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. DO NOT EXPECT THIS
TO MAKE IT MUCH PAST NASSAU COUNTY AS LOW LEVELS ARE STILL DRY
OVER NYC AND POINT WEST.
CLASSIC VEERING IN THE SFC TO 5000` SEEN IN VAD WIND PROFILE - SO
THINK WE`LL WARM TO SUPER COOLED LIQUID.
REGARDLESS ALL PCPN IS VERY LIGHT.
RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PCPN AND HRRR IS CATCHING
ON.
TEMPS BASICALLY STEADY REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A STRONG NOR`EASTER AS MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
OF RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY ALONG THE DELMARVA
COAST THAT TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT. FOR OUR AREA
THIS IS LOOKING TO BE PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN MAKER...ACCOMPANIED
BY COASTAL FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS. WHILE THERE IS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE INITIALLY...IT RETREATS AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO TUE. THE LOW TRACK IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BE WELL WEST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N...70W THAT
TYPICALLY IS ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY SNOW MAKERS FOR THIS AREA.
THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE WITH STRONG FRONTAL BANDING TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE LOW TRACK FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MOST
OF THE DAY TUE...TAPERING OFF IN THE LATE EVENING. RESIDUAL COLD
AIR IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF ORANGE COUNTY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ICE. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR A BRIEF OF TIME...BUT THERE
IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. ALL LOCATIONS WILL BE OVER TO RAIN BY MID
MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW BECOMES VERY STRONG TUE
MORNING/AFT WITH A 60 TO 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL...RAISES THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD TRANSFER MOMENTUM AND HIGH WINDS REACHING
THE SFC. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LI...NYC
METRO...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER...AND COASTAL CT. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO REACH 60 MPH IN THESE AREAS WITH SOME
PROPERTY DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE AMOUNTS WERE ALSO PRECEDED BY 1 TO 2 INCHES
A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY FOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
HOWEVER...FFG GUIDANCE IS LOW ACROSS NE NJ AND SOME SMALL RIVERS
AND STREAMS COULD COME OUT OF THEIR BANKS.
AS FOR TEMPS...READINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TONIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE COASTAL FRONT TO PUSH ONSHORE LI WITH HIGHS ON
TUE INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT. HIGHS INLAND WILL
BE AROUND 40.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR SW CT AND NE
NJ. SINCE THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THE TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS REMAIN
LOW CONFIDENCE. ADVSY LEVEL SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN ORANGE COUNTY AND
POSSIBLY WESTERN PASSAIC. WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR
LIKELY AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NW ORANGE
COUNTY MAY COME CLOSE. RAIN EXPECTED FROM SE CT AND LONG
ISLAND...POSSIBLY ALL RAIN IN NYC AS WELL WITH A MIX IN BETWEEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD THE STEADY PCPN WILL SHIFT INLAND
AND LIGHTEN AT THE COAST. IT BECOMES MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE WED
THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH COVERAGE GRADUALLY DECREASING. COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL CAUSE PTYPE TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND IF THE ECMWF SOLN IS
CORRECT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE WEST WILL DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRES
DEVELOPS SE OF HATTERAS TNGT...AND TRACKS NWD TO A POINT OFF THE
NJ COAST BY TUE AFTN.
STRATUS SHIELD ADVANCING NWWD FROM THE OCEAN. SOME SN/PL OBSERVED
ALONG SOUTH COAST OF LONG ISLAND AND COULD AFFECT KISP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CIGS AROUND 15-20K FT EVERYWHERE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LGT DZ POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
EVENING. IN THE INTERIOR...FZDZ DEVELOPS.
STEADY PCPN DEVELOPS TNGT...WITH -FZRA POSSIBLE KEWR KJFK AND
KSWF. THE RAIN GETS HEAVIER TUE MRNG FROM S TO N.
NE WINDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFT 6Z
TNGT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PEAK GUSTS FROM THE CITY EWD UP TO
50 KT AFT 12Z TUE.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR IN CIGS MAY ARRIVE EARLIER THAN
FORECAST AFTER 00Z. LIGHT FROZEN MIX POSSIBLE AT PRECIP ONSET.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR IN CIGS MAY ARRIVE EARLIER THAN
FORECAST AFTER 00Z. LIGHT FROZEN MIX POSSIBLE AT PRECIP ONSET AND
WILL AMEND IF NEEDED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ADJUSTMENTS OF AN HOUR OR TWO MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE ONSET OF IFR CIGS. LIGHT FROZEN MIX POSSIBLE AT PRECIP ONSET.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ADJUSTMENTS OF AN HOUR OR TWO MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE ONSET OF IFR CIGS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ADJUSTMENTS OF AN HOUR OR TWO MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE ONSET OF IFR CIGS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ADJUSTMENTS OF AN HOUR OR TWO MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE ONSET OF IFR CIGS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.18Z TUE...IFR. RAIN TAPERING IN THE AFTERNOON. NE WINDS 20-30KT. GUSTS UP
TO 50KT POSSIBLE.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...IFR LIKELY. SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS AT KSWF. RAIN SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.THU...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
.FRI AND SAT...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS WERE RAISED EARLIER ABOUT 2 FT AS WW3 GUIDANCE IS LOW.
SEAS ON THE SOUND WERE ALSO RAISED TO 3-4 FT.
WINDS LESSEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...WINDS INCREASE AND CONTINUE TO DO SUCH THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NOR`EASTER. A STRONG LLJ STILL FORECAST TO
PASS THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. GALE AND STORM WATCH IN EFFECT.
DUE TO THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH...TIMING AND TRACK OF
THE LOW AFFECTING THE WATERS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE
TYPE AND DURATION OF HAZARDS ON THE WATERS REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW TRACKS OVER EASTERN
WATERS TUE NIGHT...BUT START TO DEVIATE WITH HOW LONG IT MEANDERS
ABOUT THIS LOCATION UNTIL LIFTING NORTH. IF THE LOW REMAINS DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH ONLY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BEING MET (POSSIBLY ONLY ON THE
OCEAN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS) THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL GALE GUSTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE AMOUNTS WERE ALSO PRECEDED BY 1 TO 2 INCHES
A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY FOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
HOWEVER...FFG GUIDANCE IS LOW ACROSS NE NJ AND SOME SMALL RIVERS
AND STREAMS COULD COME OUT OF THEIR BANKS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY SWELLS AND HIGH
STORM TIDES THROUGH MID WEEK WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION
AND LIKELY WASH-OVER ISSUES AT THE BARRIER BEACHES.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS OCCURRED THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW.
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING/AFTN HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE
FLOODING WITH THIS TIDAL CYCLE COULD WELL BE EXACERBATED BY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE TIMING...TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOME FURTHER REFINED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR CTZ005>012.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
CTZ011-012.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CTZ009>012.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CTZ009-010.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ009-010.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ079-081.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ072-074-075-080-178-179.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ067.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ338-345.
STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ330-335-340-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1256 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WITH
LIGHT NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS
HIGH AS THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN (MODEL PROBS OF REDUCED VSBYS REMAIN LOW). /85
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014/
UPDATE...
AS NOTED IN THE MORNING DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA HAS CREATED A STRONG AND PERSISTENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WELL ESTABLISHED NORTHEAST FETCH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE LONG-PERIOD
NORHTHEASTERLY SWELL THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY TODAY. THE LONG-PERIOD SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY FOR THE
BEACHES EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH CURRENT SURF HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR 10 FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PALM BEACH
COUNTY BEACHES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014/
AVIATION...
RECENTLY ANIMATED IR2 IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE SHIELD OF LOW STRATUS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF REGIONS.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MAIN ISSUE FROM THIS STRATUS DECK
WILL BE MVFR/IFR CIGS, ESPECIALLY OVER APF AND PBI. THIS DECK
SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE MID-MORNING PERIOD
WITH A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NNW TODAY THEN NE AT SITE APF LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. /85
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...USHERING IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ ...
BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT...TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE QUITE
A BIT COOLER THAN PREV FEW MORNINGS...WITH LOW 60S ALONG THE
COASTS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. LOW STRATUS/SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IS
PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS CLOUD LAYER ADVANCES IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST NORTH OF A NAPLES TO BOCA RATON LINE...MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS WILL TURN NE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL...MID/UPR 70S. NE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DOWN THE E FL COASTLINE...AND THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING INLAND
A FEW SHOWERS INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. THESE MAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. MINIMA TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY
DECEMBER...MAINLY IN THE MID/UPR 50S...WITH SOME LOW 60S ACROSS
THE EASTERN METROPOLITAN AREAS.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE TROUGHS ATTENDANT
SURFACE CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...WHILE
SURFACE LOPRES DEVELOPS OFF CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL ACCELERATE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND ALSO INCREASE THE
COLD-AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL
OCCUR BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS QUIETLY PASSES
BY. MINIMAS SHOULD REACH 40S OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH LOW 50S ALL
THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN RIDGE
BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND MAXIMA WILL HOLD
IN THE 60S.
SIGNIFICANT NE SWELL BEING TO ARRIVE IN SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
TODAY /SEE DETAILS IN THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW/. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT RIP CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. IN ADDITION...HIGH SURF MAY WARRANT AN ADVISORY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...AND BEACH EROSION/MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING...ARE ALSO POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/ ...
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AND EVOLVED
INTO CLOSED H5 LOPRES OVER NE CONUS. THE FEATURE WILL THEN
STALL...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...EXPANSIVE SFC
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...THIS MEANS EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN MUCH OF THE
WEEK. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE
IN 40S INTERIOR/50S METROPOLTIAN AREAS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ALTHOUGH LONG-RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
ON THIS PATTERN CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...LATEST ECMWF RUN
BRINGS ADDITIONAL REINFORCEMENTS OF COOL AIR DOWN THE PENINSULA.
IF THIS PANS OUT...FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES TO
WARM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION...
STILL MONITORING A SHIELD OF LOW CIGS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA PER THE LATEST MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE TIMING AND EXACT EXTENT OF THE SOUTHERN PROPAGATION OF THIS
SHIELD REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST HRRR AND SREF CIG HEIGHT
PROBABILITIES KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE LOW CIGS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH THE PERIPHERY OF WHICH EXTENDING TO BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. KEPT
ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE EAST COAST SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT KAPF.
MARINE...
IMPRESSIVE FETCH GENERATED BY LOPRES WEST OF BERMUDA IS BRINGING
NELY SWELL DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE ALREADY EXCEEDING 10 FT OFFSHORE THE MELBOURNE/CAPE
CANAVERAL AREA...AND WILL LIKELY REACH WATERS OFF PALM BEACH
COUNT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC WATERS
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. THE
5 TO 8 FOOT SWELL WILL PERSIST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO
A CONTINUATION OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. WAVES IN THE GULF
STREAM MAY EXCEED 13 FEET DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 61 73 50 67 / 10 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 62 75 54 69 / 0 10 0 0
MIAMI 62 75 53 70 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 58 71 50 67 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ651-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ650-670.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1114 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
AS NOTED IN THE MORNING DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA HAS CREATED A STRONG AND PERSISTENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WELL ESTABLISHED NORTHEAST FETCH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE LONG-PERIOD
NORHTHEASTERLY SWELL THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY TODAY. THE LONG-PERIOD SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY FOR THE
BEACHES EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH CURRENT SURF HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR 10 FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PALM BEACH
COUNTY BEACHES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014/
AVIATION...
RECENTLY ANIMATED IR2 IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE SHIELD OF LOW STRATUS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF REGIONS.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MAIN ISSUE FROM THIS STRATUS DECK
WILL BE MVFR/IFR CIGS, ESPECIALLY OVER APF AND PBI. THIS DECK
SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE MID-MORNING PERIOD
WITH A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NNW TODAY THEN NE AT SITE APF LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. /85
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...USHERING IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ ...
BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT...TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE QUITE
A BIT COOLER THAN PREV FEW MORNINGS...WITH LOW 60S ALONG THE
COASTS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. LOW STRATUS/SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IS
PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS CLOUD LAYER ADVANCES IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST NORTH OF A NAPLES TO BOCA RATON LINE...MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS WILL TURN NE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL...MID/UPR 70S. NE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DOWN THE E FL COASTLINE...AND THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING INLAND
A FEW SHOWERS INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. THESE MAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. MINIMA TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY
DECEMBER...MAINLY IN THE MID/UPR 50S...WITH SOME LOW 60S ACROSS
THE EASTERN METROPOLITAN AREAS.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE TROUGHS ATTENDANT
SURFACE CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...WHILE
SURFACE LOPRES DEVELOPS OFF CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL ACCELERATE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND ALSO INCREASE THE
COLD-AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL
OCCUR BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS QUIETLY PASSES
BY. MINIMAS SHOULD REACH 40S OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH LOW 50S ALL
THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN RIDGE
BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND MAXIMA WILL HOLD
IN THE 60S.
SIGNIFICANT NE SWELL BEING TO ARRIVE IN SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
TODAY /SEE DETAILS IN THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW/. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT RIP CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. IN ADDITION...HIGH SURF MAY WARRANT AN ADVISORY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...AND BEACH EROSION/MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING...ARE ALSO POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/ ...
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AND EVOLVED
INTO CLOSED H5 LOPRES OVER NE CONUS. THE FEATURE WILL THEN
STALL...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...EXPANSIVE SFC
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...THIS MEANS EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN MUCH OF THE
WEEK. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE
IN 40S INTERIOR/50S METROPOLTIAN AREAS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ALTHOUGH LONG-RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
ON THIS PATTERN CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...LATEST ECMWF RUN
BRINGS ADDITIONAL REINFORCEMENTS OF COOL AIR DOWN THE PENINSULA.
IF THIS PANS OUT...FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES TO
WARM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION...
STILL MONITORING A SHIELD OF LOW CIGS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA PER THE LATEST MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE TIMING AND EXACT EXTENT OF THE SOUTHERN PROPAGATION OF THIS
SHIELD REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST HRRR AND SREF CIG HEIGHT
PROBABILITIES KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE LOW CIGS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH THE PERIPHERY OF WHICH EXTENDING TO BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. KEPT
ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE EAST COAST SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT KAPF.
MARINE...
IMPRESSIVE FETCH GENERATED BY LOPRES WEST OF BERMUDA IS BRINGING
NELY SWELL DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE ALREADY EXCEEDING 10 FT OFFSHORE THE MELBOURNE/CAPE
CANAVERAL AREA...AND WILL LIKELY REACH WATERS OFF PALM BEACH
COUNT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC WATERS
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. THE
5 TO 8 FOOT SWELL WILL PERSIST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO
A CONTINUATION OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. WAVES IN THE GULF
STREAM MAY EXCEED 13 FEET DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 61 73 50 / 30 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 62 75 54 / 10 0 10 0
MIAMI 78 62 75 53 / 10 0 0 0
NAPLES 74 58 71 50 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ651-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ650-670.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
915 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN. CURRENT HIGHS LOOK GOOD GIVEN THE THICK AND LOW
CLOUDINESS PERSISTING ALL DAY.
PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PRESSING
ONSHORE IN STOUT NE FLOW. GFS SHOWS EXPANDING AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER EC FL DURING THE DAY WHICH SUGGESTS PERSISTENT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA SO WENT ABOVE GFS MOS POPS DRAWING 40-50
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEEP CONVECTION (THUNDER). HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOL ACROSS THE
NORTH INTERIOR IN THE UPPER 60S. MILDER CLOSER TO THE COAST IN
ONSHORE FLOW AND TO THE SOUTH IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LARGE LONG PERIOD NE SWELL WILL BE IMPACTING THE COAST TODAY AND
THIS HAS TRIGGERED A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. THERE WILL BE
ROUGH SURF TOO ESP THIS MORNING ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD
COASTS. BREAKING WAVES OF 5 TO 6 FEET MAY CAUSE MINOR BEACH
EROSION AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. BUT HAVE DECIDED NOT TO
ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON SOMEWHAT AND THE DIRECTION WILL BACK TO THE NORTH BY EVE
AND NW TONIGHT WHICH IS AN OFFSHORE FLOW. BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
REASSESS THIS.
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS FLOW BACKS TO THE NORTH
AND SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BUT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
EARLY. LOW TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 40S NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA AND
50S ELSEWHERE.
TUE-WED...TROUGHING ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD DURING THIS PERIOD. POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 15 MPH DURING THE DAY ON TUE AND NEAR 10 MPH TUE NIGHT
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING A BIT BY WED. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY OVER LAND AND WILL NOT CARRY POPS...EXCEPT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS/LOWS WILL FALL TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ON TUE WITH 70 DEGREES
WITHIN REACH ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. MINS IN
THE 40S AREAWIDE TUE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND
INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S FOR WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WED NIGHT WILL
FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 40S MOST PLACES...EXCEPT UPPER 30S POSSIBLE
IN COOLER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
THU-SUN...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LATE
SAT INTO SUN AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE GOMEX.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.
INITIAL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
HIGHS/LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THU-SAT WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS RETURNING
AGAIN BY SUN. CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY BUT MAY HAVE TO ENTERTAIN SOME
COASTAL SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY BOUNCING ALL OVER THE PLACE. PREVAILING CEILINGS
HOVER AROUND THE MVFR/VFR BREAK POINT THE REST OF THE DAY WITH AN
OCCASIONAL/TEMPO IFR IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR MIST/FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING RIGHT OFF THE ATLANTIC.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IN/VC SHOWERS/MIST/FOG.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z WITH SOME LIFR CIGS MCO
SOUTH. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR (040-060AGL) AFT 16Z ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA BUT SCATTERED SHRA MAY PRODUCE REPEATED LOWERING TO MVFR.
ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CIGS EXPECTED AFT 06Z TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS...
SAINT AUGUSTINE FISHING PIER CMAN SITE NORTH 32 KNOTS GUSTING TO 37
KNOTS 26KNOTS...BUOY 009 AT 20NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL WAS
NORTHEAST AT 17 TO 21 KNOTS WITH 9 FOOT SEAS/7 FOOT NORTHEAST SWELL
WITH A 10 SECOND PERIOD. INSIDE PORT CANAVERAL TRIDENT PIER WAS
RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS 8AM/9AM. SEBASTIAN INLET WAS
RECORDING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS AND THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4
AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH WERE RECORDING 5 TO 6 FOOT SEAS WITH 2 FOOT
SWELLS AND AN 11 SECOND PERIOD.
FOR THE AFTERNOON THE LATEST RUC RUN WAS INDICATING THAT THE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A WHILE THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO
20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT WIND SURGE WORKS ITS WAY
DOWN THE COAST.
NOT PLANNING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING AFTERNOON
FORECAST.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TODAY...LEADING EDGE OF NE WIND SURGE AND LONG PERIOD SWELL ARE
PUSHING S/SW ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. NOAA BUOY 009
RAMPED UP QUICKLY TO COMBINED SEAS OF 10 FT WITH 20-25 KNOTS.
THE WIND SURGE SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
SOUTHERN (TREASURE COAST) MARINE ZONE BEFORE PRES GRAD RELAXES
THIS AFTN AND WINDS DECREASE SOME TEMPORARILY. BUT THE LARGE SWELL
COMPONENT...LIKELY ALREADY IMPACTING VOLUSIA COAST...WILL REACH
THE BREVARD AND TREASURE COASTS THIS MORNING AND PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS NEAR INLETS FOR SMALL CRAFT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTH. THIS WILL BACK THE WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTH BY THIS EVE AND N/NW OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN
SPEED. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11 FT IN THE GULF STREAM...6 TO 9 FEET
NEARSHORE.
TUE-WED...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AS A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR BOATERS GREETS THIS PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE
LATEST FRONT WILL INCREASE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND 20 KTS
OVER THE OPEN ATLC TUE-TUE NIGHT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
RELAXING WED-WED NIGHT. SEAS 6-9 FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 12 FT
OFFSHORE. LOCAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POSSIBLE 12-14 FT SEAS
OVER THE GULF STREAM WHICH COULD ALSO PROMPT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
ALONG THE EAST COAST. FORTUNATELY THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
OFFSHORE (FROM THE NW) WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE BREAKING WAVES AT
THE COAST BUT MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THU-FRI...DECREASING WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 69 51 65 44 / 30 10 10 0
MCO 72 52 68 45 / 40 10 10 0
MLB 73 58 69 45 / 50 20 10 0
VRB 74 58 71 47 / 50 20 10 0
LEE 68 48 65 44 / 20 10 10 0
SFB 71 51 68 45 / 30 10 10 0
ORL 71 52 67 47 / 40 10 10 0
FPR 74 58 71 48 / 50 20 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...GLITTO
PUBLIC SV...JOHNSON
FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
627 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.AVIATION...
RECENTLY ANIMATED IR2 IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE SHIELD OF LOW STRATUS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF REGIONS.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MAIN ISSUE FROM THIS STRATUS DECK
WILL BE MVFR/IFR CIGS, ESPECIALLY OVER APF AND PBI. THIS DECK
SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE MID-MORNING PERIOD
WITH A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NNW TODAY THEN NE AT SITE APF LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. /85
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...USHERING IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ ...
BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT...TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE QUITE
A BIT COOLER THAN PREV FEW MORNINGS...WITH LOW 60S ALONG THE
COASTS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. LOW STRATUS/SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IS
PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS CLOUD LAYER ADVANCES IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST NORTH OF A NAPLES TO BOCA RATON LINE...MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS WILL TURN NE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL...MID/UPR 70S. NE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DOWN THE E FL COASTLINE...AND THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING INLAND
A FEW SHOWERS INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. THESE MAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. MINIMA TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY
DECEMBER...MAINLY IN THE MID/UPR 50S...WITH SOME LOW 60S ACROSS
THE EASTERN METROPOLITAN AREAS.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE TROUGHS ATTENDANT
SURFACE CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...WHILE
SURFACE LOPRES DEVELOPS OFF CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL ACCELERATE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND ALSO INCREASE THE
COLD-AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL
OCCUR BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS QUIETLY PASSES
BY. MINIMAS SHOULD REACH 40S OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH LOW 50S ALL
THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN RIDGE
BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND MAXIMA WILL HOLD
IN THE 60S.
SIGNIFICANT NE SWELL BEING TO ARRIVE IN SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
TODAY /SEE DETAILS IN THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW/. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT RIP CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. IN ADDITION...HIGH SURF MAY WARRANT AN ADVISORY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...AND BEACH EROSION/MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING...ARE ALSO POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/ ...
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AND EVOLVED
INTO CLOSED H5 LOPRES OVER NE CONUS. THE FEATURE WILL THEN
STALL...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...EXPANSIVE SFC
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...THIS MEANS EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN MUCH OF THE
WEEK. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE
IN 40S INTERIOR/50S METROPOLTIAN AREAS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ALTHOUGH LONG-RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
ON THIS PATTERN CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...LATEST ECMWF RUN
BRINGS ADDITIONAL REINFORCEMENTS OF COOL AIR DOWN THE PENINSULA.
IF THIS PANS OUT...FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES TO
WARM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION...
STILL MONITORING A SHIELD OF LOW CIGS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA PER THE LATEST MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE TIMING AND EXACT EXTENT OF THE SOUTHERN PROPAGATION OF THIS
SHIELD REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST HRRR AND SREF CIG HEIGHT
PROBABILITIES KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE LOW CIGS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH THE PERIPHERY OF WHICH EXTENDING TO BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. KEPT
ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE EAST COAST SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT KAPF.
MARINE...
IMPRESSIVE FETCH GENERATED BY LOPRES WEST OF BERMUDA IS BRINGING
NELY SWELL DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE ALREADY EXCEEDING 10 FT OFFSHORE THE MELBOURNE/CAPE
CANAVERAL AREA...AND WILL LIKELY REACH WATERS OFF PALM BEACH
COUNT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC WATERS
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. THE
5 TO 8 FOOT SWELL WILL PERSIST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO
A CONTINUATION OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. WAVES IN THE GULF
STREAM MAY EXCEED 13 FEET DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 61 73 50 / 30 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 62 75 54 / 10 0 10 0
MIAMI 78 62 75 53 / 10 0 0 0
NAPLES 74 58 71 50 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ651-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
406 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...USHERING IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ ...
BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT...TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE QUITE
A BIT COOLER THAN PREV FEW MORNINGS...WITH LOW 60S ALONG THE
COASTS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. LOW STRATUS/SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IS
PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS CLOUD LAYER ADVANCES IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST NORTH OF A NAPLES TO BOCA RATON LINE...MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS WILL TURN NE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL...MID/UPR 70S. NE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DOWN THE E FL COASTLINE...AND THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING INLAND
A FEW SHOWERS INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. THESE MAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. MINIMA TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY
DECEMBER...MAINLY IN THE MID/UPR 50S...WITH SOME LOW 60S ACROSS
THE EASTERN METROPOLITAN AREAS.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE TROUGHS ATTENDANT
SURFACE CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...WHILE
SURFACE LOPRES DEVELOPS OFF CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL ACCELERATE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND ALSO INCREASE THE
COLD-AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL
OCCUR BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS QUIETLY PASSES
BY. MINIMAS SHOULD REACH 40S OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH LOW 50S ALL
THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN RIDGE
BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND MAXIMA WILL HOLD
IN THE 60S.
SIGNIFICANT NE SWELL BEING TO ARRIVE IN SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
TODAY /SEE DETAILS IN THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW/. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT RIP CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. IN ADDITION...HIGH SURF MAY WARRANT AN ADVISORY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...AND BEACH EROSION/MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING...ARE ALSO POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/ ...
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AND EVOLVED
INTO CLOSED H5 LOPRES OVER NE CONUS. THE FEATURE WILL THEN
STALL...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...EXPANSIVE SFC
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...THIS MEANS EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN MUCH OF THE
WEEK. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE
IN 40S INTERIOR/50S METROPOLTIAN AREAS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ALTHOUGH LONG-RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
ON THIS PATTERN CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...LATEST ECMWF RUN
BRINGS ADDITIONAL REINFORCEMENTS OF COOL AIR DOWN THE PENINSULA.
IF THIS PANS OUT...FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES TO
WARM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
STILL MONITORING A SHIELD OF LOW CIGS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA PER THE LATEST MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE TIMING AND EXACT EXTENT OF THE SOUTHERN PROPAGATION OF THIS
SHIELD REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST HRRR AND SREF CIG HEIGHT
PROBABILITIES KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE LOW CIGS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH THE PERIPHERY OF WHICH EXTENDING TO BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. KEPT
ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE EAST COAST SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT KAPF.
&&
.MARINE...
IMPRESSIVE FETCH GENERATED BY LOPRES WEST OF BERMUDA IS BRINGING
NELY SWELL DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE ALREADY EXCEEDING 10 FT OFFSHORE THE MELBOURNE/CAPE
CANAVERAL AREA...AND WILL LIKELY REACH WATERS OFF PALM BEACH
COUNT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC WATERS
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. THE
5 TO 8 FOOT SWELL WILL PERSIST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO
A CONTINUATION OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. WAVES IN THE GULF
STREAM MAY EXCEED 13 FEET DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 61 73 50 / 30 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 62 75 54 / 10 0 10 0
MIAMI 78 62 75 53 / 10 0 0 0
NAPLES 74 58 71 50 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ651-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
109 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.AVIATION...
STILL MONITORING A SHIELD OF LOW CIGS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA PER THE LATEST MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE TIMING AND EXACT EXTENT OF THE SOUTHERN PROPAGATION OF THIS
SHIELD REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST HRRR AND SREF CIG HEIGHT
PROBABILITIES KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE LOW CIGS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH THE PERIPHERY OF WHICH EXTENDING TO BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. KEPT
ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE EAST COAST SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT KAPF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2014/
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR A FEW SHOWERS COULD WORK INTO
THE METRO AREAS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR METRO AREAS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY TONIGHT WITH
REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINING DRY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
UPDATED...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE PUBLIC HAS REPORTED SMOKE IN NORTHERN BROWARD COUNTY FROM THE
SUGAR CANE BURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY. STRATUS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARDS LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO ERODE...AND GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK UP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD. OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUD COVER...THE FRONT WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S SOUTH.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND PUSHING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE LAKE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MONDAY MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SURGE FROM CANADA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST...WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING AND DRYING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. A SIGNIFICANT NORTHEASTERLY SWELL IS FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
LARGE SWELL OF 5 TO 8 FEET PUSHING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PALM
BEACH COUNTY ON TUESDAY. MINOR BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE MAINLY INFLUENCED BY EXPANSIVE CANADIAN
SURFACE RIDGE...WHOSE CENTER WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THIS TIME. FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...THESE FEATURES WILL TRANSLATE TO PERSISTENT NNW
FLOW...WITH MODERATE CAA...LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK-
WEEK. DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR WILL ENTRENCH OVER THE REGION. DESPITE
AMPLE SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S...ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY MAXIMA EXPECTED TO ONLY
BE IN 60S. MINIMA OVER THE INTERIOR WED-FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN
40S...WITH 50S EXPECTED AT THE COASTS.
MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
A SIGNIFICANT NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SWELL HEIGHTS INCREASE TO
5 TO 8 FEET MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 60 72 52 / 20 20 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 62 74 54 / 10 10 10 0
MIAMI 77 62 74 54 / 10 10 10 0
NAPLES 73 58 71 51 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
323 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...
317 PM CST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW ALL ARE LIKELY
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS TWO UPPER CIRCULATIONS THAT WILL
CROSS THE AREA...AND MODEL VORTICITY FIELDS ALOFT AND RH FIELDS AT
LOWER LEVELS ALL SUPPORT THE IDEA OF PATCHY AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON MOST AREAS ARE IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S...AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH AS COLDER AIR
APPROACHES...SO LITTLE IF ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE.
BY MORNING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LONGWAVE IS WELL TO OUR EAST...AND
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA AS WELL. ONLY AT LOW
LEVELS DO RH FIELDS SUGGEST CONTINUED SATURATION...SO WILL TREND
POPS DOWNWARD TO BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS BY DAYBREAK EXCEPT
DOWNWIND FROM THE LAKE IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AT THE END OF A
NORTHWEST FETCH. EVEN THAT AREA APPEARS TO DRY OUT BY LATE
TOMORROW AS WINDS CONTINUE VEERING NORTHEASTERLY AND LOW LEVELS
DRY CONSIDERABLY.
CLOUDINESS PERSISTS SOUTH OF THE LAKE LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...BUT AREAS WEST CLEAR OUT A BIT. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR A FEW
DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS BETWEEN MORE
CLEAR AND MORE OVERCAST AREAS. WEDNESDAY CONTINUES COOL...BUT NOT
UNSEASONABLY SO...WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.
LENNING
&&
.LONG TERM...
317 PM CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY THE WEEKEND DO NOT LOOK
TOO BAD AT ALL FOR MID DECEMBER. COMPARED TO LAST MONTH...THE
STRETCH OF DAYS STARTING ON FRIDAY THE 12TH LOOKS TO BE FROM 10 TO
20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SAME PERIOD FROM LAST MONTH. SO THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER APPEAR TO BE SWAPPED THIS
YEAR.
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE THOUGH NOT PERFECT AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH NOW OVERHEAD WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND ALLOW
A BROAD RIDGE FROM THE SFC TO UPPER LEVELS TAKE ITS PLACE. THIS
RIDGING WITH ITS DRY AND MILD WEATHER APPEARS TO PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEKEND WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST.
BY EARLY SUNDAY MODELS START TO SUGGEST A RETURN OF BETTER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WEST OF
THE RIDGE. CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THIS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE LOCAL AREA IS LOW...SO HAVE ELECTED TO INCLUDE INCREASED
POPS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT ALL IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FOG REDUCING VIS TO MVFR/IFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* IFR CEILINGS BECOMING LOW END MVFR THIS EVENING...SLOWLY
IMPROVING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
* SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST THIS EVENING...AND NORTHWEST
TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AREA OF PRECIP WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DEPARTING
TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS...WITH GYY STILL EXPERIENCING LIGHT
RAIN. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS PRECIP...SATURATED CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY DENSE
FOG ALREADY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL LINGER FOR MOST
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT WITH
VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH FOG NOT LIKELY CLEARING UNTIL FROPA
LATER THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE CURRENT IFR
CEILINGS IN PLACE...NOT LIKELY OBSERVING A BETTER IMPROVING TREND
UNTIL FROPA LATER THIS EVENING. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR
THIS EVENING AND A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DO APPEAR POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH A PORTION OF TONIGHT.
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS POST FROPA WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE AN IMPROVING TREND WITH CEILINGS
CONTINUES.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH DRIZZLE/FOG THIS AFTERNOON...AND MEDIUM
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VIS TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH IFR CEILINGS...AND MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE
WITH CEILING TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND DURATION.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTH WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. N WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. W WINDS BECOMING WSW.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH MVFR CIGS PSBL. SW WINDS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH MVFR CIGS PSBL. S WINDS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. S WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
227 PM CST
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOWS
COLD FRONT AND THEN THEY TURN NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
MINNESOTA. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WITH 30 KT
NORTH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE TOMORROW. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH APPROACHES BUT LARGE WAVES WILL LINGER IN THE NSH ZONES.
HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THE HAZARDOUS WAVES WILL
LINGER...BUT HAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AS THE HIGH MOVES DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...6 AM TUESDAY TO 9
PM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...9 AM TUESDAY TO 3
PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
249 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
Cold front is pushing across central Illinois early this afternoon,
located just west of Peoria and Springfield as of 2 pm. Extensive
low cloud deck has been prevailing over the forecast area, with some
localized dense fog along and north of the I-74 corridor. Surface
observations showing visibilities and ceilings lifting behind the
front, and the back edge of the cloudiness covered about the eastern
third of Missouri. Well defined upper circulation evident on water
vapor imagery over northeast Iowa, and this is producing some light
rain and snow upstream from us.
Main question for this part of the forecast is how much clearing
will manage to take place. Lower clouds extend all the way back into
southern North Dakota. RAP model guidance and current trajectories
would suggest some clearing may take place over the far southwest
parts of the forecast area for a short period, but a secondary surge
of clouds is expected as the broad upper trough surrounding the
aforementioned circulation swings through the Midwest this evening.
Have kept the sky forecast on the pessimistic side and kept cloudy
skies in the grids for tonight. Much of the associated precipitation
should be just to our north, but will include some slight chance
PoP`s for the northeast CWA for this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
As the low pressure area weakens and gets absorbed into an east
coast system, a high pressure ridges will build into the area. This
ridge will dominate the weather over the area through Wednesday and
beyond. Some concern with lower level moisture remaining trapped
under the ridge Tue through Wed, so have increased cloud cover to go
mostly cloudy through Wed. As the center of the high pressure drops
south into the southern Miss river valley, the ridge will remain
over the area with dry weather through Thursday, the rest of the
week and into the weekend. The area will also remain dominated by
mid level cyclonic flow through the end of the week. Then mid level
ridging, that was building in the plains, will begin to dominate the
region for the weekend. Late in the weekend, the ridging will begin
to push east and this will allow a frontal system to move into the
area and bring rain to the region for Sun night and Monday.
With high pressure dropping into the area and cyclonic flow, temps
will remain cool for the next couple of days. But then as the high
pressure settles south and mid level ridging builds, temps will
begin to warm again. By the weekend, temps will warm to above
normal, with 50s expected Sat and Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions continue over the central Illinois
TAF sites at midday. Some modest improvement will take place this
afternoon as a cold front pushes east, reaching roughly KBMI/KDEC
around 20Z and KCMI around 21Z, at which point ceilings should
increase into MVFR range. RAP model showing some potential for
brief VFR conditions this evening, but ceilings should sink back
into MVFR range as a deep upper trough swings across the Midwest.
Have lingered these conditions through the end of the TAF period,
but humidity cross-sections off the NAM model suggest some
potential for the ceilings to break up from KSPI-KPIA late.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1211 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...
418 AM CST
THROUGH TONIGHT...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS...HAVE
BEEN TRACKING A BAND OF PCPN AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKING
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST. PCPN AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE MOST STEADY AND
HEAVIER PCPN CONFINED TO A NARROW BAND WHICH IS APPROACHING THE I-39
CORRIDOR AS OF 4AM CST. THE PCPN BAND WILL BE STEADILY PROGRESSIVE
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH STEERING FLOW OF 35-40KT BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROUGH. THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MAKING FOR A VERY DIFFICULT
PCPN TYPE FORECAST AS A VERY WARM LAYER ABOVE A SFC BASED INVERSION
IS +6 TO +7C PER THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND ILX. MAKING MATTERS
EVEN MORE DIFFICULT IS A DRY LAYER COINCIDENT WITH THE WARM
LAYER...SO PCPN HAS BEEN HAVING A TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF
THE FORCING OF THE SFC FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. SO...HAVE
BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS AS THE MEASURABLE PCPN WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO A SHORT DURATION AS THE FRONT QUICKLY CROSSES THE
REGION. PCPN TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM AS SFC TEMPS
HOVER RIDGE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. SO...WILL CARRY A MIXED BAG
OF PCPN TYPES...INITIALLY SOLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...WHICH SHOULD
MIX WITH AND THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SLEET AND THEN MIXING WITH SOME
SNOW WITH THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL FORCING. FORECAST RH PROFILES AND
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT THERE SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY SHARP
CUT-OFF TO THE MEASURABLE PCPN BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO A PERIOD
OF DRIZZLE AS A SATURATED LAYER BELOW 8KFT BELOW A DRY LAYER ALOFT
LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BY
LATE MORNING...FOLLOWING THE FROPA...SO FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
LESS LIKELY AND ULTIMATELY ANTICIPATE THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE
SFC FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP...BRINGING SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO NWRN INDIANA...BUT SINCE THE AIRMASS IS NOT VERY
COLD BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP INTO MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30F.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
418 AM CST
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SET UP WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CARING OUT OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE GENERAL
TRENDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD BE FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO
DEEPEN TO A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL KEEP THE UPPER LOW FROM PROGRESSING
EASTWARD...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOWER 40S BY FRIDAY
AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL FEEL THAT THE
GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...BUT ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN PUSHING BACK THIS WARMING
TREND FARTHER INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SO...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT VERY HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT IF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WERE TO VERIFY...MAX
TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND COULD BE IN THE 50S...OR AT THE VERY
LEAST...SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FOG REDUCING VIS TO MVFR/IFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* IFR CEILINGS BECOMING LOW END MVFR THIS EVENING...SLOWLY
IMPROVING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
* SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST THIS EVENING...AND NORTHWEST
TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AREA OF PRECIP WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DEPARTING
TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS...WITH GYY STILL EXPERIENCING LIGHT
RAIN. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS PRECIP...SATURATED CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY DENSE
FOG ALREADY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL LINGER FOR MOST
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT WITH
VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH FOG NOT LIKELY CLEARING UNTIL FROPA
LATER THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE CURRENT IFR
CEILINGS IN PLACE...NOT LIKELY OBSERVING A BETTER IMPROVING TREND
UNTIL FROPA LATER THIS EVENING. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR
THIS EVENING AND A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DO APPEAR POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH A PORTION OF TONIGHT.
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS POST FROPA WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE AN IMPROVING TREND WITH CEILINGS
CONTINUES.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH DRIZZLE/FOG THIS AFTERNOON...AND MEDIUM
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VIS TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH IFR CEILINGS...AND MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE
WITH CEILING TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND DURATION.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTH WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. N WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. W WINDS BECOMING WSW.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH MVFR CIGS PSBL. SW WINDS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH MVFR CIGS PSBL. S WINDS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. S WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
305 AM CST
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING
AND WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WILL BE WEAKENING/BROADENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED UP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN AROUND 30 KT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE TODAY WITH WINDS
TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND EASING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AHEAD OF IT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO IL NEARSHORE ZONES THROUGH
MID MORNING WITH WAVES ON A DOWNWARD TREND LATER THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING TURNING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY AS SPEEDS INCREASE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING SO WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN GUSTY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS
TUESDAY...THOUGH A LATER START MAY BE WARRANTED ACROSS THE ILLINOIS
WATERS AS IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR WAVES TO BUILD. WILL HOLD
OFF ON THIS FOR NOW SO THAT TIMING CAN BE REFINED. THE HIGH WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AS IT CONSOLIDATES SOUTHWARD OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
INTO MID WEEK. BROAD RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LAKE INTO LATE WEEK
KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1132 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
Back edge of the rain has reached a Bloomington to Pana line, and
AWIPS timing tool has it out of most of the state by noon except
along the Wabash River. Main cold front moving through eastern
Iowa and northern Missouri, and should be passing through our area
around mid afternoon. Bulk of the afternoon should be dry, but
higher resolution models are suggesting some light drizzle or rain
may occur along the front, so will need to keep an eye on that.
With extensive cloud cover, have lowered highs by a degree or two
across the board.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
Satellite and radar images indicate the clipper is progressing into
the western Great Lakes as advertised, with a warm front extending
southeast into northern Illinois and a cold front extending
southwest into western Iowa/Nebraska. Ahead of the warm front, rain
showers have already developed all the way to I-57 in our forecast
area. Several bands of rain will move east across the forecast area
today. The primary period of lift seems focused in a 2-3 hour
window earlier this morning, with the leading edge of that band just
reaching GBG around 0830z/230am. Precip amounts will remain light up
to a tenth of an inch total. The cold front will move across IL this
afternoon, helping to keep scattered showers going into the
afternoon. However, colder air aloft will allow some of the precip
to possibly change over to snow north of I-74. No accumulation would
develop, but flakes of snow could develop. Soundings do not show
much in the way of ice crystals to feed into the lower layer of
moisture, so drizzle may result, but will introduce a slight chance
of a rain-snow mix this afternoon across the north.
Air temps at the sensors at 3am this morning are hovering at or
just above freezing across our northern counties, with GBG/CMI/DNV
our only primary OB sites still at freezing. Freezing temps do
extend north toward Pontiac, Princeton and Kankakee. Upstream OBS to
the west-northwest are showing a warm nose of air flowing northward
during the rain and just behind the primary line of rain. Despite
sensors showing mostly above freezing, we can not rule out some
icing of elevated surfaces and on cars or colder objects. Some
sidewalks or bridges and secondary roads could also get a thin layer
of ice tonight across our north from Galesburg to Lacon to
Champaign/Danville. We do not expect the need for any headlines for
ice, as the warmer air behind the rain should help to melt any ice
that does form in a short time.
Clouds will remain entrenched across the area today. The lack of sun
and only modest warming behind the warm front and line of showers,
highs will top out in the low 40s north with upper 40s south.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
Upper low spinning over the upper Midwest will continue to affect
Central Illinois going into tonight, with drizzle and light snow
possible on the back end of the system, mainly east of I-57.
Although high pressure is building into the region behind the
exiting low, stratus stretching back west of the Missouri River
Basin an indicator that the significant llvl moisture is not going
anywhere quickly. Moisture getting trapped underneath a persistent
inversion may keep the clouds around at least through Tuesday, and
potentially a bit longer than that. Models have not had any luck
with handling the low level moisture and even more than the sky
cover, the stratus will have ramifications in the temperature
forecast as well. Pulling the highs down a degree or two for
Tuesday from prev forecast...and less aggressive with the adjust
for Wednesday as the forecast is already on the cooler side of
MOS.
Temps slowly moderate through the end of the week and by Friday, a
southerly push to the winds brings some WAA back into the region and
temps up above normals in the low to mid 40s, and even the upper
40s for Saturday. Pops showing up later in the weekend with the
next system approaching end of Day 7/8. ECMWF rather interesting
in breaking up the upper vort into two maxes whereas the energy in
the GFS is more elongated in a narrow trof, at least a little bit
longer before it also breaks. Both producing QPF, the ECMWF more
diffuse and widespread, but not completely sold on the handling
of the low. Current handling would trend to a gap in the QPF,
further complicating the forecast. Slights in for Sun night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions continue over the central Illinois
TAF sites at midday. Some modest improvement will take place this
afternoon as a cold front pushes east, reaching roughly KBMI/KDEC
around 20Z and KCMI around 21Z, at which point ceilings should
increase into MVFR range. RAP model showing some potential for
brief VFR conditions this evening, but ceilings should sink back
into MVFR range as a deep upper trough swings across the Midwest.
Have lingered these conditions through the end of the TAF period,
but humidity cross-sections off the NAM model suggest some
potential for the ceilings to break up from KSPI-KPIA late.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1213 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
914 PM...EVENING UPDATE...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF
PRECIP IS MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IA THIS EVENING. A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING NEAR KMCW IN
NORTHERN IA. AUTOMATED SITES HAVE REPORT UNKNOWN PRECIP...HEAVY IN
FEW OBS...WITH SURFACE TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
DESPITE OBSERVED 00Z ILX/DVN SOUNDINGS SHOWING +8C AND +6C TEMPS
AROUND 900MB RESPECTIVELY...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
THAT WILL NEED TO SATURATE...LIKELY VERY QUICKLY...AS PRECIP
ARRIVES. THUS THIS WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY BE COOLED SUFFICIENTLY
FOR A WINTRY MIX AT FIRST...THEN IF PRECIP INTENSITY BECOMES HEAVY
ENOUGH...A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. ONLY MINOR CHANGE WAS
TO TWEAK TIMING TO SLOW PRECIP ONSET.
AIR TEMPS HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 20S/NEAR 30 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHWEST CWA...WITH TEMPS STILL NEAR FREEZING OVER THE REST
OF THE CWA. SURFACE TEMPS MAY WARM A FEW DEGREES BUT WILL LIKELY
STAY NEAR FREEZING THRU DAYBREAK. SO REGARDLESS OF PRECIP TYPE...
SOME ICING OF UNTREATED SURFACES IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE
TEMPS ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 20S. NO PLANS FOR ANY HEADLINES THIS
EVENING...BUT THAT POSSIBILITY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TRENDS
EMERGE OVERNIGHT. THUS NO PLANS TO MODIFIED CURRENT SPS WHICH
RUNS THROUGH 09Z. CMS
&&
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... 314 PM CST
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS THE QUICK HIT
OF A WINTERY MIX LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF BRIEF PERIOD OF A HEAVY BURST OF SNOW ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING DURING THE MORNING RUSH.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES OUR STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST DIGGING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK QUICKLY ALONG OR
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS ALREADY RAMPING UP ACROSS THE AREA
OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST-NORTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE COMBINATION OF GOOD LARGE SCALE FORCING (Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ALONG
WITH WHAT APPEARS MAY END UP BEING A RATHER STOUT BAND OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS...SHOULD PROVIDE A SHORT...BUT POTENTIALLY INTENSE
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA ALL
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
(UP AROUND 7 DEGREES C/KM IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER) DURING THE PERIOD
OF MAXIMUM FORCING FOR ASCENT. IN ADDITION...CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALSO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF NEGATIVE EPV...WITH
FOLDING THETA E SURFACES IN THE 500 TO 700 MB LAYER. THIS ALL
POINTS TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SHORT...BUT POTENTIALLY INTENSE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING RUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. THE CURRENT TIMING FOR THE CHICAGO
METRO AREA FOR THIS BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE
12 TO 15 UTC TIME FRAME...AND AN COUPLE HOURS EARLIER ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL...WITH MAX LAYER WET BULB TEMPERATURES FROM
ZERO TO +1 CELSIUS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN INTENSE
PRECIPITATION RATES WITHIN THIS AREA OF PRECIP...I FEEL THAT
SNOW...WITH SLEET IS STILL LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATES 80 AND 88...WHERE THE
STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING...AND HENCE MOST INTENSE DYNAMIC COLUMN
COOLING WILL BE MOST LIKELY. HOWEVER...A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIPITATION INITIALLY
FIGHTS WITH A WARM BUT DRY LAYER AROUND 850 MB...BUT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO A RATHER QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I88. WE
WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS...AS IT APPEARS IT WILL BE A
QUICK BURST OF SNOW DURING THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH.
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SOME SNOW AND SLEET IS STILL
POSSIBLE...BUT RAIN...AND EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED INTO MONDAY MORNING...DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SO SOME MINOR ICING IS
POSSIBLE...BUT I DONT SEE THIS AS MUCH OF FREEZING RAIN EVENT.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE QUICK TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...BY MIDDAY TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
IN A HURRY LATER MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS IT APPEARS ANY
LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE...AND GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 30S
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FREEZING
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
258 PM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING ALONG WITH REINFORCED LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION AS A SECONDARY MORE CONTINENTAL COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. FORECAST LIFT IS DISJOINTED SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT DID ADD A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES MONDAY EVENING. VERTICAL SATURATION PROFILES
REMAIN IFFY FOR ICE PRESENCE SO FELT COMFORTABLE MENTIONING EITHER
OR. WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING CANT RULE OUT FREEZING DRIZZLE IF SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WERE TO OCCUR...BUT AGAIN A LOW CHANCE.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY IT WILL ABSORB A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PRESENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...FORMING A DEEP OCCLUDING LOW ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND REGION.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. WITH BLOCKED
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC...THIS LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMING BLOCKED AND
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THIS MEANS QUIET WEATHER FOR
OUR AREA FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAYBE SLIGHTLY BELOW...DURING MIDWEEK.
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING MIDWEEK WILL
INCH/LEAN EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL LAG
THIS. WHILE HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE AREA...THE
GREATEST HEIGHT AND THERMAL ANOMALIES LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THE TREND HAS BEEN
THIS WAY. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON THEIR WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE CHANCE OF HAVING NEXT WEEKEND IN THE 50S...BUT RIGHT NOW WITHOUT
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THE MAGNITUDE MAY BE HINDERED SOME.
DO THINK THE GFS IS TOO ROBUST ON LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
WEEKEND SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MORE SUNNY ECMWF /ESPECIALLY
FOR SATURDAY/. THE ECMWF HAS HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. GIVEN THE
PATTERN...ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO SLOW FURTHER SO
HAVE BACKED ANY UP UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION STARTING AROUND 11/12Z. LIKELY
BEGINNING AS -FZRA/IP MIX THEN CHANGING TO SN/IP WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. MDW MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR -RA/IP BEFORE
SN/IP.
* CIGS QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AS PRECIP ARRIVES. VSBY ALSO
FALLS TO MVFR WITH PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
* SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND WEST-
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. GUSTS 15-20 KT DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE...FOLLOWED
BY CIG TRENDS. A BAND OF MIXED PRECIP CONTINUES TO WORK EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE
MORNING. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO TIMING FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BUT MAY NEED TO SLOW THINGS SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY FURTHER
EAST AT MDW/GYY. A VERY WARM NOSE OF AIR IS POSITIONED ALOFT OF
THE AREA WITH A VERY DRY WEDGE OF AIR ALSO IN PLACE ABOVE THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL BE THE COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR BOTH TIMING AND
PRECIP TYPE. UPSTREAM OBS HAVE SHOWN RAIN...SLEET AND SOME
FREEZING RAIN SO FAR WITH NO SNOW NOTED. THE BAND MAY BETTER
ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES EAST WHICH WOULD GIVE AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT
FOR SNOW TO AT LEAST MIX IN BUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM
AIR ALOFT IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR THIS TO OCCUR...DESPITE PLENTY
OF COOLING POTENTIAL THANKS TO THE DRY AIR. WILL STICK WITH THE
TEMPO FOR ALL SNOW WITH IFR VSBY FOR NOW AT ALL SITES BUT
GYY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOWERING.
ULTIMATELY...RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ARE LOOKING TO BE THE MAIN
PRECIP TYPES AT THE TERMINALS...THOUGH RFD MAY STILL HAVE A FAIR
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW AS WELL. AS FAR AS FZRA...SURFACE AIR TEMPS
LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN WARM A DEGREE OVERNIGHT SO FZRA IS
EXPECTED AT ORD/RFD/DPA FOR A TIME BEFORE WARMING OCCURS. PROVIDED
MDW HOLDS NEAR THEIR CURRENT 35 DEGREES THEN FZRA WOULD LIKELY NOT
BE AN ISSUE. WILL MONITOR THEIR TEMP THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CHANGE
FZRA TO RA IF TEMP HOLDS.
CIGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER AS THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODIC IFR CIGS. IFR VSBY LOOKS TO OCCUR
PERIODICALLY BUT IF SNOW REMAINS MIXED OR DOES NOT OCCUR THEN SUB
1SM VSBY WOULD NOT BE LIKELY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL PASS
AFTER ABOUT 2-3 HOURS BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW NORTH...AND DRIZZLE LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY KEEPING
VSBY REDUCED AT TIMES WHILE CIGS REMAIN LOW END MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT TIMES. SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING THEN WEST-
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. A FURTHER NORTHWEST
SHIFT IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
MODESTLY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT DEVELOPING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
THIS MORNING. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THOUGH SLIGHT
SLOWING POSSIBLE. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A PERIOD OF ALL SN OCCURS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FALLING CIGS/VSBY WITH PERIODIC IFR IN
PRECIPITATION. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR PREVAILS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR IFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS PSBL EARLY...THEN MAINLY VFR. LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF ORD/MDW OVER LAKE. NW WINDS BECOMING N.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. N WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. W WINDS BECOMING WSW.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH MVFR CIGS PSBL. SW WINDS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH MVFR CIGS PSBL. S WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...INCLUDING
POSSIBLY TEMPORARY GALES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE SOMEWHAT ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...MAINLY NORTH OF
CHICAGO...STILL LOOKS TO BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THERE
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
LAKE HURON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TO WEST ON
MONDAY EVENING AND THEN NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND FINALLY TO
NORTH BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD 30 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY IN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO BECOME VERY BLOCKED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE LAKE LOCKED BETWEEN A RIDGE TO ITS IMMEDIATE WEST
AND A LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS GENERALLY 10-15 KT
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1113 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
Impressive shortwave seen on water vapor loop over eastern North
Dakota this evening tracking east-southeast. At the surface, a
large area of high pressure near Lake Erie will continue to drift
slowly away from our area. However, in its wake, there was quite
a bit of dry air in the lower levels as seen on the 00z ILX
sounding. As winds turn more southerly later tonight we do expect
a gradual increase in moisture at the mid and eventually lower
levels of the atmosphere, especially by dawn Monday. With the
stronger upper forcing expected to remain well north of our area
Monday morning, we expect the more significant wintry precip to
stay north of the forecast area as well. However, we will see a
brief period of rain develop after 1 or 2 am across the west and
then track east over the remainder of the area by dawn.
Except for the far northern counties, forecast soundings were
trending a bit warmer late tonight and first thing Monday morning
just ahead of a surface trof with temperatures expected to edge up
into the mid or upper 30s with the warmest readings over the
central and south. Soundings near Galesburg east thru Lacon and
southeast to just north of Bloomington indicate a narrow window of
opportunity for a little sleet or light freezing rain before going
over to rain by morning. Will continue to hold on to that idea
over the far north but based on the RAP, HRRR and latest NAM-WRF
soundings it appears the majority of the area will see mainly the
threat for rain overnight and into Monday morning ahead of the
surface trof/cold front.
Other than some minor adjustments to precip type over the far
north, the current forecast seems to be handling the situation
well for the overnight hours. We should have an updated ZFP out
by 900 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
Mid and high clouds are expansive across the forecast area this
afternoon, although some patches of stratocumulus have been
developing. Larger shield of clouds around 1500 feet starting to
cross the Missouri/Illinois border as well. Water vapor imagery
showing the incoming clipper system quite nicely over the Dakotas.
Latest surface map shows the low center over northern North Dakota,
and its trailing cold front into central Nebraska and western
Kansas.
Main concern is with precipitation types across the north. Still
appears that the precipitation in our area will hold off until after
midnight, and not reach areas east of I-57 until sunrise. The
remainder of the morning model suite has arrived, and all are
generally trending warmer ahead of the incoming clipper. The NAM
and RAP are most prominent with the 850 mb warm nose, around +4 to
+5C, and suggest all rain even in the far north. The GFS, ECMWF and
Canadian models with a more modest +1 to +3C. These all indicate
surface temperatures above freezing as well, but would indicate a
bit of sleet potential as well. Have leaned a bit more on the warmer
side of the guidance and kept it mostly rain, but included a slight
chance of freezing rain from around Champaign northwest through
Bloomington to Minonk. Surface temperatures will remain borderline
with the ice potential, but lows around 33-34 degrees will be common
in much of the forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
The initial shortwave feature associated with the clipper system
will cross the central IL forecast area by mid afternoon, bringing
the best lift and precipitation with the system. Models over the
past day have trended upward with precipitation amounts and now
yield a consensus of a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch.
Precipitation type could linger as freezing rain from around
Danville northwestward until around 8 a.m. but surface temperatures
will quickly rise above freezing to yield all rain through the day.
Subsidence aloft will follow the initial shortwave causing
precipitation to diminish from west to east late morning through
afternoon. Shallow stratus looks to continue into the evening as
cold advection in northwest winds push into the region. Model
soundings indicate the moisture trapped below a subsidence inversion
will be shallow enough that any precipitation would likely be
drizzle, although some potential for snow flurries with little
accumulation exists.
Below normal temperatures in NW flow will continue for midweek. A
deepening low over the east coast will likely cause a blocked
pattern with a slowly moving ridge over the plains. Models have been
inconsistent with handling next weekend but have trended forecast
toward the ECMWF solution which holds the ridge further west and
looks more reasonable. As a result, will hold drier and slightly
cooler temperatures longer into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
Weather system out to our west will track over the forecast area
Monday morning bringing deteriorating conditions with VFR cigs
becoming MVFR and IFR for a time thru the morning hours along with
some light rain at times. Surface trof or wind shift line over the
Missouri River Valley has a band of MVFR and IFR cigs associated
with it as it tracks east late this evening and expect that to
start to affect PIA around 10z and points east by 12z-15z.
Initially, the atmosphere ahead of the trof will be quite dry at
the low levels, but eventually we should see enough saturation for
MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys along with some scattered areas of rain.
Forecast soundings continue to indicate surface temps will rise
several more degrees ahead of the trof with little if any threat
for freezing precip Monday morning. Once the cigs drop to MVFR/IFR
Monday morning, expect only a gradual improvement to mostly MVFR
Monday afternoon and evening as the trof/wind shift passes to our
east.
Surface winds will be southeast at 8 to 13 kts overnight and then
veer into the southwest and then west early Monday afternoon across
the west and over the remainder of the area after 21z. Look for
northwest winds Monday evening. Wind speeds Monday and Monday
evening will be 10 to 15 kts. We may see some gusts around 20 kts
at times late Monday morning into the afternoon hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TOPEKA KS
547 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
Surface high pressure continues to build southward today ahead of
the next weak shortwave, which will drop southeastward within the
northwest flow aloft. Meanwhile the edge of the stratus deck has
worked into far northeast KS this morning. The NAM and GFS forecast
has kept this stratus from building further into the forecast area
later this evening. The latest HRRR and RAP have now developed the
stratus further southward towards the I-70 corridor. It appears that
the models are cooling that near saturated layer once daytime mixing
has stopped. Across central KS with the exception of some high
clouds mostly clear skies may allow the boundary layer to cool
enough for fog. Although the soundings seem to indicate relatively
strong winds just above the surface, which may prevent this from
developing. If the stratus develops and or continues in the
northeast areas then the forecast lows will probably be too cool.
Otherwise most areas should drop into the mid to upper 20s.
With regards to precipitation early tomorrow morning. The models
have been trending much drier in the lower levels as the lift
increases in the saturated layers. The lift appears to be fairly
weak and only efficient for drizzle, but with the dry air in place
that drizzle will most likely not reach the ground. Temperatures are
also forecast to gradually rise tomorrow morning reaching above
freezing by late morning or around noon. So freezing precipitation
is looking unlikely at this point. Temperatures will warm as the
winds veer on the back side of the retreating surface high. There is
also an outside chance that if the lift is strong enough to generate
rain then sprinkles will be possible as advertised by the ECMWF and
GEM. This would most likely occur during the afternoon hours when
the wave is forecast to pass over the area. High temperatures
tomorrow should reach the around 40 for most locations.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
The long term forecast remains cloudy and dreary for the most
part with the bulk of the forecast focus on an impending large
storm system which should arrive by late Sunday into early next
week.
For Wednesday night through Saturday, the forecast area will be
entrenched in a very moist near-surface airmass. While there will
be ridging overhead, it appears that this will only help to keep
the surface airmass fairly stagnant through Friday and expect the
persistent low clouds to keep temperatures pretty well in check
with minimal diurnal temperature swings. There will also be
periods of drizzle and fog...particularly overnight and into the
morning hours...with weak but persistent lift within the moist
layer. The good news is that even with the clouds, temperatures
will be above freezing through Saturday night and any light
precipitation will fall as liquid. Also, as the weak progresses,
southerly low level winds will also advect warmer temperatures
into the area to the extent that even without sunshine the area
should be in the upper 50s to around 60 for high temperatures
Friday through Sunday.
Late Saturday into Sunday, a large storm system will be taking
shape over the western CONUS, and is scheduled to bring
precipitation into the local forecast area by late Sunday. While
model guidance is currently in rather strong agreement regarding
the evolution of this system, forecaster confidence remains toward
the low end. The reason for this low confidence lies in the
complex nature of the storm and also the run-to-run model
variability over the past few days. The main energy to impact the
local area will come from the southwestern CONUS, but will also
interact (unsure how much) with a strong northern stream short
wave trough. This interaction will strongly impact the atmospheric
temperature profiles on the north and northwest side of the storm
system and could have a profound impact on the local weather for
Sunday night into Monday night. One thing that is certain is that
this storm system will not lack moisture as it will have a strong
moisture feed ahead of it for several days into the Plains.
Current indications are that this event would be mainly rain for
the local area with some amounts greater than 1", but could mix
with snow or other winter weather types especially across north
central KS late in the event. The wild card is in how cold the
airmass is behind an incoming cold front that will undercut the
system. Lower resolution models can sometimes trend a bit too warm
with undercutting cold airmasses in the long range, but lack of
snow cover to the north supports a slightly warmer airmass. If
it should trend colder there would be more of a chance for winter
precip locally.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
MVFR stratus deck to the east of the KTOP/KFOE terminals should
remain well east of the TAF sites...so have maintained a VFR and
dry forecast through 00Z/11z. Although still vfr...the only lower
cloud layer affecting the terminals should be a stratocu deck in
the 4-5 kft layer aft 10Z that should then persist on thru the
end of the fcst period. Winds will slowly veer from east to
southeast through the period...but remain light.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1000 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2014
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO NORTON/GRAHAM COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT PER
RUC BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND CURRENT NORTON OBSERVATION WHICH IS
REPORTING 5SM IN MIST. AFTER MIDNIGHT 00Z NAM/RUC/HRRR PUSH THE
HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER RH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO TWEAKED
SKY COVER A BIT TO TRY AND REFLECT APPROACHING THIN LAYER OF
CIRRUS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS
WESTERN US...WITH TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND ITS AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN NE/KS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER OUR CWA. STRATUS FOG HAS ERODED AND
CLEAR SKIES/DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS LED TO TEMPS WARMING INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS NW KANSAS AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPS PERSISTING. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT MIGHT BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER MONDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER CWA. GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND DEPENDING ON HOW LOW THE TD VALUES WILL
DROP WE COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
MET GUIDANCE WAS HINTING AT LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER ALL
OTHER 2M AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING THIS...AND WITH
DRY AIR ADVECTING FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST I DECIDED AGAINST FOG
MENTION. DESPITE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT MONDAY...THE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR MOST GUIDANCE TO HAVE A COOL BIAS WITH GOOD WARMING
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. CONSIDERING THESE BIASES I WOULD STILL
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY TO BE AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...WHICH IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2014
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY THE
TIME GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THOUGH...MODELS DO SHIFT THIS
RIDGE MORE EASTWARD AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST...INTO THE
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND THEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
NEXT SUNDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS DO
DIFFER ON TRACK AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THE CWA WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 925MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM +10C TO +15C THRU THE WEEK BEFORE THE TROUGH ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE AREA WILL SEE HIGHS 55-60F AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE NEAR ZERO AS A
RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A WEAK 700 MB
SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THAT
TRAVERSES THE REGION. MODERATE 1000-500MB RH VALUES WILL ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
AREA...LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY SO HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING OF JUST MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THIS ONLY. THE
ONLY CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH. LATEST GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM COMING OVER THE
AREA OFF THE ROCKIES...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM DROPPING
OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SYSTEM TO GRAB AMPLE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SOME PRECIP...WHILE THE GFS IS ALMOST DRY. WHILE THE BULK OF
THE ECMWF SCENARIO WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...STILL THINK SOME
OF THIS WILL IMPACT THE CWA SO HAVE KEPT IN UP TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. LOOKING FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW AT NIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND ANY LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE CWA AFFECTED
WITH ANY OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF A
COUPLE TENTHS RIGHT NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2014
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE FORECAST TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
07KTS AROUND 16Z THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE FROM 19Z-22Z BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTHEAST AROUND 05Z FROM 23Z THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER CU POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z
OTHERWISE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST FROM 19Z THROUGH 03Z OR SO BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
901 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.UPDATE...WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH WASHED OUT AS IT
FILTERED THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTH LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING. A STRATCU DECK MOVING SW FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY HAS BEEN PICKED UP BY THE RUC AND LOOKS TO MOVE INTO CEN LA
LATER TNITE. WENT AHEAD AND MADE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT UPWARD ON
TEMPS THERE BY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LESS FOG THAN
LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED MIXING AND CLOUDS.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
AVIATION...
HI LVL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NW... OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT
RULES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...WITH A
SECONDARY RE-ENFORCING HIGH TO MOVE S ACROSS THE MS VALLEY LATER
THIS EVENING. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NE WINDS...EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 ACROSS
C LA WHERE THE COOLEST AIR WILL RESIDE.
INCREASING MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED BY WED
AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH THE COOL AIR...WILL HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS
DOWN TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FURTHER TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR THU MORNING.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS TX MAY GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA FOR SE TX/C LA BY THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. POPS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN LESS THAN 20% FOR THIS. BY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST AND REPLACED BY
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL COME WITH A
SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF LOW TO SWEEP ACROSS TX AND THE ARKLATEX MON. BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH EITHER AN ENHANCED AREA OR
LINE OF TSRA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE CLEARING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THIS MODEL RUN...EXPECTING COOLER
AND DRY WEATHER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DML
MARINE...
NW WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL INCREASE A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10-15 KTS
AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME E AND SE
AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST...AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 41 60 43 62 47 / 0 0 0 10 10
KBPT 43 60 46 62 50 / 0 0 10 10 10
KAEX 39 55 38 59 44 / 0 0 0 10 10
KLFT 41 58 41 62 45 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
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&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
650 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
STRETCING S FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE SE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPR RDG
IN THE PLAINS. SFC HI PRES UNDER THE THE UPR RDG STRETCHES FM NW
ONTARIO INTO MN. 12HR 00Z-12Z H5 HGT RISES IN THE 100-150M RANGE FM
YPL TO INL AND MPX INDICATE THE UPR RDG/SFC HI ARE BUILDING INTO THE
WRN GREAT LKS...BUT PLENTY OF LO CLDS/A FEW FLURRIES LINGER OVER THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTN WITH LLVL MSTR TRAPPED IN NEAR SFC NNE FLOW OFF
LK SUP UNDER INVRN BASE THAT HAD LOWERED TO NEAR H95 BY 12Z AT INL
UNDER THE STRONG DNVA/SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING UPR
RDG. THE AIR TO THE N OF LK SUP IS QUITE A BIT DRIER PER THE 12Z YPL
RAOB...WITH SFC DEWPTS NEAR OR BLO 0F AT MOST PLACES IN ONTARIO.
SKIES ARE MOCLR THERE...AND ASSOCIATED DRYING IS TENDING TO BREAK UP
THE LO CLDS OVER THE NRN AND ERN PORTION OF LK SUP. BUT THIS CLRG IS
HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH PROGRESS TOWARD UPR MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON LO CLD TRENDS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPS.
TNGT...AS UPR RDG CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE E...SFC HI PRES
RDG IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY E AS WELL...REACHING A LINE FM NEAR
JAMES BAY INTO NW WI BY 12Z WED. LOWERING INVRN BASE UNDER THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD END ANY LINGERING FLURRIES...BUT MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TO BE MORE PESSIMISTIC IN REGARDS TO CLEARING THE LO
CLDS...WHICH SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH RATHER SLOW OBSVD CLRG TREND.
BEST CHC FOR SOME CLRG WL BE OVER THE ERN CWA AS THE SLOWLY VEERING
LLVL FLOW TOWARD THE E WL DOWNSLOPE OFF ONTARIO AND LIMIT THE OVER
WATER TRAJECTORY. ONE OTHER AREA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME CLRG IS
OVER THE FAR W...WHERE FLOW SHIFTING TOWARD THE SSE WL DOWNSLOPE AS
WELL. BUT THE SFC-H925 WINDS ARE FCST TO BE ONLY 5-10 KTS...SO THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MIGHT NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP THE LO
CLDS SIGNIFICANTLY. WL TEND TOWARD THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR E...WITH LINGERING CLDS HOLDING UP THE TEMPS ELSEWHERE.
WED...SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS IS PROGGED TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY E THRU
THE DAY...REMAINING OVER CENTRAL UPR MI THRU THE DAY. WITH CONTINUED
SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT LINGERING LO CLDS TO SLOWLY BREAK UP. THESE CLDS
SHOULD BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
CWA...BUT EVEN HERE THE CLDS SHOULD BREAK UP AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVRN
SINKS TO THE NEAR THE SFC AS SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS. TENDED TOWARD THE
LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN HI STABILITY SHOWN ON FCST
SDNGS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AND DRY AIR WILL
LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SAME TIME...STRONG UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS BECOMING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY CLEAR...DRY AND
VERY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 40 DEGREES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 10 TO 12C.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT
HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY FALL ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL
MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO OVERLY ABUNDANT OR DEEP...AS A LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...HELPING TO FOCUS
THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW INLAND
AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD
NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON ROADWAYS WITH THE WARMER DAYTIME
HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...WENT WITH THE VERY LIGHT RAIN
MENTION...WITH DROPLETS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SMALL AS MOISTURE IS
NOT DEEP ENOUGH FOR RAINFALL TO AMOUNT TO MUCH. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SOUTHERN LOW THROUGH THE REMAINING
EXTENDED WITH THE 06Z GFS BRINGING THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST REACHING
SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MI BY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE LOW
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...AROUND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AT THE SAME TIME. THE
LATEST...12Z MODEL RUN OF THE GFS/EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. BOTH MODELS ALSO AGREE WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL ONCE AGAIN.
THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
COOLER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND
-8 TO -10C MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOP...THIS WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN UPSLOPE NNE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
UNDER A LOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HAS SUSTAINED THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME
NEAR SFC DRYING WILL KEEP THE CIGS GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME CLEAING AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE AT SAW AND IWD LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO A MORE ESE DIRECTION THAT WILL DOWNSLOPE INTO IWD AND LIMIT
MOISTENING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SAW. A MORE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AT CMX WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE MVFR CIGS TO LINGER
LATER INTO WED MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF TO UNDER 15KT. THESE
LIGHTER WINDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS POINT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
422 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS THE SHOW SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE
BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECT
CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH MAIN SNOW BAND AHEAD OF THE SFC-8H
TROF OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. IT/S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
-FZDZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SNOW BAND WITH MID-LVL DRYING
AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW TO REACH THE -10C ISOTHERM...BUT
NOT SURE IF THE FZDZ WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FCST
GRIDS THIS EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE THAT N TO NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRES TONIGHT. COOLING LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS...850MB TEMPS (AROUND -6C) ARE MARGINAL FOR ENHANCEMENT
WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE IS AROUND...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT STRONGLY
CYCLONIC...AND DGZ IS ABOVE THE UPWARD MOTION AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE. UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC MOTION MAY BE THE DRIVING COMPONENT
AIDING SNOWFALL...AND WHERE THAT IS MAXIMIZED...EXPECT GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING OF INVERSION HGTS AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING MID-LVL RDG UPSTREAM MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A BRIEF PD OF
UPSLOPE FZDZ LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NRN TIER COUNTIES IN NRLY FLOW
LATE TONIGHT...BUT NAM SNDGS SHOW THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER COOLING TO
-10C BY SUNRISE WHICH SHOULD AGAIN SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. SINCE FZDZ THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AND LOOKS TO BE BRIEF
IF IT DOES OCCUR WL LEAVE IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW. LOOK FOR MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S INTERIOR WEST TO UPPER 20S EAST
HALF.
1034 MB SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD WEAKEN THE PRES
GRADIENT AND THUS ALLOW NRLY WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 3KFT WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH ANY REMAINING LIGHT UPSLOPE SHSN TO FLURRIES BY
LATE MORNING. LOOK FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S WEST
TO LOWER 30S EAST HALF.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE SFC-500MB. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME
MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AS THE SFC RIDGE
EXITS E TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE AXIS OF THE 500MB RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR SLOWLY INCREASING W-SW
WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 9 TO 12C.
THIS WILL BE QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT VALUES WHICH ARE
HOVERING AROUND -4C.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL COME IN SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. AS MOISTURE INCREASES...LIGHT WAA WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE
CWA. KEPT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AS WELL FOR THIS WILL BE IN
ADVANCE OF THE ELONGATED SFC LOW OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS AT
00Z SUNDAY WITH THE HIGH DEW POINTS OVER THE MELTING SNOWPACK. THE
12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE THE LOW OVER MN AT 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN SHIFTING ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR/CENTRAL ONTARIO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THIS PERIOD...AND ADJUST AS NEEDED AS THE
TIME NEARS.
LOOK FOR THE COLD AIR TO SURGE IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW/COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PRECIP TURNING ALL BACK TO SNOW BY
MONDAY EVENING AT THE LATEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL RESULT IN IFR CIGS AND SCT -SHSN THIS AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT WITH SNOW PICKING UP FOR A TIME
UNDER STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE NNW-N WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AT KCMX LATE TONIGHT AS UPSLOPING DIMINISHES AND SOME
MINOR DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT AT KIWD AND KSAW TUE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
BEHIND THE LOW...N TO NW WINDS RAMP UP TONIGHT...AIDED BY PRES RISES
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MAGNITUDE OF PRES RISES SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW HRS WHEN WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 35KT FROM NCNTRL TO SCNTRL
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES. WITH THE HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER
LAKES TUE NIGHT/WED...LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT ARE EXPECTED... AND
THESE LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD LINGER ON THRU THU AND POSSIBLY FRI AS
WELL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
353 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED COMPACT MIDLEVEL WAVE
OVER THE MN/IA BORDER SPINNING SEWD. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
PRESENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE OVER IN AND MI. MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WAS SUPPORTING A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED SWATH OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE PRECIP OVER WESTERN MI AND NORTHERN IN...MOVING NEWD.
THERE WAS A SHARP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AS EVIDENCED
BY QUICKLY LOWERING CEILINGS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. NWP IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE AREA OF FGEN AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN AROUND 23-05Z /PERHAPS
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT/ WITH ANY ONE AREA SEEING AROUND 3-4 HOURS OF
PRECIP. QPF SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AROUND .10-.15 INCHES.
PRECIP TYPE IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOW/MID
20S OVER SE MI. RAP HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH ASSOCIATED
WETBULB TEMPS 32-35F. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP A WHOLE LOT IN
ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP WITH CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD EDGE UPWARD INTO THE UPPER 20S. WETBULB EFFECTS ONCE THE
PRECIP STARTS SHOULD DROP TEMPS INTO THE 33-37 DEGREE RANGE. WHILE
MUCH OF THE REGION COULD EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW /WITH
SNOW MORE LIKELY IN THE AREAS OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER PRECIP/...HAVE
GONE WITH PREDOMINANTLY RAIN FOR METRO DETROIT AND SOUTH...MOSTLY
SNOW FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB...AND A MIX
INBETWEEN. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE SNOW TO
MAINLY REMAIN AOA FREEZING WITH LOW SNOW RATIOS SO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN...WITH PERHAPS UP TO HALF AN INCH IN SPOTS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69.
ONCE THE UPPER MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE REGION CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND EXPECT THAT
WILL BE THE CASE OVER OUR AREA AS WELL. PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS GET CLOSER TO FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DRIFTING OFF TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS IT BECOMES
A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. SE MI WILL BE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL AND BROAD LIFT FROM THE TROUGH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD
BEFORE LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS TRIES TO
FORCE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. A BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH
IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN MI. THIS PRESENTS ONE OF THE MAIN
CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM AS THAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A MILD
SUNNY WEEKEND OR A CLOUDY WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.
WE START OFF TUESDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER HEAD WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OVERCAST SKIES AND WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND
LIFT WITH A SATURATED COLUMN UP TO 8KFT WILL PRODUCE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FORCING PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. ONE
QUESTION REMAINS TO BE WHAT WILL THE PTYPE BE ON TUESDAY? THE TREND
WILL BE FOR THE COLUMN TO COOL AS THE -26C 500MB COLD POOL SLIDE
OVER THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO WITH 850MB TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NEGATIVE. BUT THE SATURATION ONLY CLIMBS TO
AROUND 750MB OR SO WHICH MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH FOR ALL ICE
CRYSTALS WITH TEMPS NEARING -9C. SO KEPT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY POSSIBLY SWITCHING OVER TO ALL
SNOW CLOSER TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING UP TOWARD
950MB...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
PREVENT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS SFC TEMPS REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S.
THE NATURE OF THE PRECIP FORCING CHANGES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED EAST LEAVING A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS COLDER NORTHERLY
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER
THE THUMB BUT MODELS DO NO INDICATE ANY STRONG CONVERGENT REGIONS
OVER THE LAKE AND DELTA T FROM THE SFC TO 850MB IS RATHER WEAK
AROUND 10C. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHER POP...LOWER QPF FORECAST FOR
THE THUMB UNTIL WE SEE MORE DEFINITIVE SIGNATURES TO LOWER THE POPS
OR START THINKING IN TERMS OF POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES
OVER LAND WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AS THE
BACKSIDE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE...AND DRY WEATHER...LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE A
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TRYING TO CREEP IN ON THURSDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE AT
THIS TIME IS LOW AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA /ST CLAIR SANILAC AND
EASTERN HURON COUNTIES/. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE ALL RAIN...HOWEVER...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF SOME SNOW MIXES IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO DROP. FOR NOW HAVE JUST LEFT THE PRECIPITATION AS ALL RAIN
BUT SNOW MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED LATER AS WE GET A BETTER SAMPLING OF
HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT.
&&
.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO
SETTLE ALLOWING US TO CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER SAGINAW
BAY A FEW HOURS EARLY BUT FLOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION OF THE NEARSHORE SMALL CRAFTS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY VEERING WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE STALLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WILL HELP EXCITE THE WIND FIELD ONCE AGAIN. A MARGINAL
GALE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN AS WINDS LOOK
TO GUST NEAR 35 KNOTS WITH THIS SETUP. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY
TRY TO HEAD BACK WEST TOWARD THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK WHICH WOULD
KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 106 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
//DISCUSSION...
NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED AREA OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN/WESTERN LOWER MI
INTO NORTHWEST IN EDGING SLOWLY EASTWARD. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO DROP TO MVFR RATHER QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT SO ONLY EXPECTING 3-4 HOURS OF LIGHT PRECIP
AT THE TERMINALS STARTING AROUND 23Z FOR MBS/FNT AND 00Z FOR PTK
SOUTHWARD. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE AROUND TO KEEP PRECIP MOSTLY
RAIN FROM PTK SOUTHWARD. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW AT MBS
WITH BORDERLINE RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED FOR FNT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH
CONCERNS FOR IFR CIGS AND FOG DEVELOPING. VISIBILITY AOB 1 SM HAS
BEEN WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM OVER WI SO SOME DENSE FOG/DRIZZLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE. OMITTED LIFR FOR THIS ISSUANCE BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE
ADDRESSED AS THINGS DEVELOP. IMPROVING VIS WILL OCCUR AFTER 12Z
TUE AS NNW WINDS INCREASE.
FOR DTW...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 00-04Z. MID CLOUDS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR FROM 23-01Z. IFR CIGS AND FOG WILL BECOME
LIKELY AFTER 04Z WITH PERIODS OF DENSE FOG /LIFR/ POSSIBLE THROUGH
14Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 1/2 SM AND/OR
CIGS BELOW 200 FT.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
LHZ441>443-462>464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DT
LONG TERM....DRK/RK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....DT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
305 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS THE SHOW SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE
BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECT
CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH MAIN SNOW BAND AHEAD OF THE SFC-8H
TROF OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. IT/S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
-FZDZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SNOW BAND WITH MID-LVL DRYING
AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW TO REACH THE -10C ISOTHERM...BUT
NOT SURE IF THE FZDZ WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FCST
GRIDS THIS EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE THAT N TO NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRES TONIGHT. COOLING LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS...850MB TEMPS (AROUND -6C) ARE MARGINAL FOR ENHANCEMENT
WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE IS AROUND...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT STRONGLY
CYCLONIC...AND DGZ IS ABOVE THE UPWARD MOTION AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE. UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC MOTION MAY BE THE DRIVING COMPONENT
AIDING SNOWFALL...AND WHERE THAT IS MAXIMIZED...EXPECT GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING OF INVERSION HGTS AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING MID-LVL RDG UPSTREAM MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A BRIEF PD OF
UPSLOPE FZDZ LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NRN TIER COUNTIES IN NRLY FLOW
LATE TONIGHT...BUT NAM SNDGS SHOW THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER COOLING TO
-10C BY SUNRISE WHICH SHOULD AGAIN SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. SINCE FZDZ THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AND LOOKS TO BE BRIEF
IF IT DOES OCCUR WL LEAVE IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW. LOOK FOR MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S INTERIOR WEST TO UPPER 20S EAST
HALF.
1034 MB SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD WEAKEN THE PRES
GRADIENT AND THUS ALLOW NRLY WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 3KFT WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH ANY REMAINING LIGHT UPSLOPE SHSN TO FLURRIES BY
LATE MORNING. LOOK FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S WEST
TO LOWER 30S EAST HALF.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUE AS A 1034MB SFC
RIDGE IS JUST W OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL START THE DAY TUE OUT OF THE
N WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C...WHICH IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE
LES. HAVE QUICKLY DIMINISHING POPS ON TUE AS UPSLOPE PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAT A HALF
INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TUE.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SHOULD STILL SEE COLD NIGHTS TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT AS LOWS
APPROACH 0F...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST FRI
AND SAT /ESPECIALLY SAT/ AND WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S IN PLACES BOTH
DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION
ON SAT. WHILE THIS IS NOT CERTAIN BY ANY MEANS...DID SHOW A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN POPS ON SUN. ALSO...KEPT FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGHER DEW POINTS SPREAD INTO THE AREA OVER A
SLOWLY MELTING SNOW PACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL RESULT IN IFR CIGS AND SCT -SHSN THIS AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT WITH SNOW PICKING UP FOR A TIME
UNDER STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE NNW-N WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AT KCMX LATE TONIGHT AS UPSLOPING DIMINISHES AND SOME
MINOR DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT AT KIWD AND KSAW TUE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
BEHIND THE LOW...N TO NW WINDS RAMP UP TONIGHT...AIDED BY PRES RISES
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MAGNITUDE OF PRES RISES SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW HRS WHEN WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 35KT FROM NCNTRL TO SCNTRL
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES. WITH THE HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER
LAKES TUE NIGHT/WED...LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT ARE EXPECTED... AND
THESE LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD LINGER ON THRU THU AND POSSIBLY FRI AS
WELL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1259 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIBBON OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN
CONCERT WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT ENHANCED BY 850MB WINDS OF 40-45KT
AND DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF TROF IS SUPPORTING A
BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN 4 COUNTIES OF THE
CWA. THE BAND IS MOVING ALONG FAIRLY RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST
DRIVEN BY 40 KT WSW WINDS AT MID-LVLS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SO EXPECT PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO LAST LESS THAN AN HOUR
OVER MOST LOCATIONS. BUT AS THE SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH IT COULD
DROP A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW. AS A RESULT OF THIS HEAVIER SNOW
BAND DECIDED TO ISSUE STORM TERM WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR THE 4 ERN
COUNTIES TO HIGHLIGHT THE BRIEF INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AND
SNOW-COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF QUICKLY TO FLURRIES BEHIND THIS MAIN BAND AS BEST MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFTS EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIBBON OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN
CONCERT WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT ENHANCED BY 850MB WINDS OF 40-45KT
AND DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF TROF IS SUPPORTING A
BAND OF SNOW THAT IS SHIFTING E ACROSS THE FCST AREA. AS OF 10Z...
BAND OF SNOW RUNS FROM MENOMINEE TO ESCANABA TO MUNISING. TO THE W
SNOW DIMINISHES...AND THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY -FZDZ AS WELL THOUGH
WITH SNOW ALREADY ON THE ROADS...ANY -FZDZ SHOULDN`T CONTRIBUTE TO
MAKING ROADS ANY MORE SLIPPERY THAN THEY ALREADY ARE. CLOSE TO
APPROACHING VORT MAX...ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW IS SPREADING ACROSS NW
WI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI.
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE ERN FCST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT E IN CONCERT WITH TRANSLATING RIBBON OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL LIKELY SHIFT OUT
OF THE FCST AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE ORDER 1.5-2.5 INCHES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS
OF -SN TODAY (ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY 1 INCH OR LESS) AS TROF MOVES
INTO THE UPPER LAKES. HOWEVER...SNOW WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE MORNING HRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS
WRN UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH IT`S A MILD START TO THE DAY...CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH. HIGH WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
N TO NW WINDS STRENGTHEN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRES TONIGHT. COOLING
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR A TIME.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR SEVERAL REASONS.
850MB TEMPS ARE MARGINAL FOR ENHANCEMENT WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
AROUND...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT STRONGLY CYCLONIC...AND DGZ IS ABOVE
THE UPWARD MOTION AND MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FOR THAT MATTER.
UPSLOPING WILL BE A MAIN COMPONENT AIDING SNOWFALL...AND WHERE THAT
IS MAXIMIZED...EXPECT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUE AS A 1034MB SFC
RIDGE IS JUST W OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL START THE DAY TUE OUT OF THE
N WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C...WHICH IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE
LES. HAVE QUICKLY DIMINISHING POPS ON TUE AS UPSLOPE PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAT A HALF
INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TUE.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SHOULD STILL SEE COLD NIGHTS TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT AS LOWS
APPROACH 0F...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST FRI
AND SAT /ESPECIALLY SAT/ AND WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S IN PLACES BOTH
DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION
ON SAT. WHILE THIS IS NOT CERTAIN BY ANY MEANS...DID SHOW A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN POPS ON SUN. ALSO...KEPT FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGHER DEW POINTS SPREAD INTO THE AREA OVER A
SLOWLY MELTING SNOW PACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL RESULT IN IFR CIGS AND SCT -SHSN THIS AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT WITH SNOW PICKING UP FOR A TIME
UNDER STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE NNW-N WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AT KCMX LATE TONIGHT AS UPSLOPING DIMINISHES AND SOME
MINOR DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT AT KIWD AND KSAW TUE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRES OVER FAR SE MANITOBA
MOVES E...PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY WITH GALES OVER THE ERN LAKE ENDING BY MID MORNING.
BEHIND THE LOW...N TO NW WINDS WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT...AIDED BY PRES
RISES APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MAGNITUDE OF PRES RISES SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HRS WHEN WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 35KT FROM NCNTRL
TO SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE AS HIGH
PRES RIDGE APPROACHES. WITH THE HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING OVER THE
UPPER LAKES TUE NIGHT/WED...LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT ARE EXPECTED...
AND THESE LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD LINGER ON THRU THU AND POSSIBLY FRI
AS WELL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOSS
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1026 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIBBON OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN
CONCERT WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT ENHANCED BY 850MB WINDS OF 40-45KT
AND DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF TROF IS SUPPORTING A
BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN 4 COUNTIES OF THE
CWA. THE BAND IS MOVING ALONG FAIRLY RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST
DRIVEN BY 40 KT WSW WINDS AT MID-LVLS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SO EXPECT PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO LAST LESS THAN AN HOUR
OVER MOST LOCATIONS. BUT AS THE SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH IT COULD
DROP A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW. AS A RESULT OF THIS HEAVIER SNOW
BAND DECIDED TO ISSUE STORM TERM WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR THE 4 ERN
COUNTIES TO HIGHLIGHT THE BRIEF INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AND
SNOW-COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF QUICKLY TO FLURRIES BEHIND THIS MAIN BAND AS BEST MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFTS EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIBBON OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN
CONCERT WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT ENHANCED BY 850MB WINDS OF 40-45KT
AND DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF TROF IS SUPPORTING A
BAND OF SNOW THAT IS SHIFTING E ACROSS THE FCST AREA. AS OF 10Z...
BAND OF SNOW RUNS FROM MENOMINEE TO ESCANABA TO MUNISING. TO THE W
SNOW DIMINISHES...AND THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY -FZDZ AS WELL THOUGH
WITH SNOW ALREADY ON THE ROADS...ANY -FZDZ SHOULDN`T CONTRIBUTE TO
MAKING ROADS ANY MORE SLIPPERY THAN THEY ALREADY ARE. CLOSE TO
APPROACHING VORT MAX...ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW IS SPREADING ACROSS NW
WI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI.
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE ERN FCST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT E IN CONCERT WITH TRANSLATING RIBBON OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL LIKELY SHIFT OUT
OF THE FCST AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE ORDER 1.5-2.5 INCHES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS
OF -SN TODAY (ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY 1 INCH OR LESS) AS TROF MOVES
INTO THE UPPER LAKES. HOWEVER...SNOW WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE MORNING HRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS
WRN UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH IT`S A MILD START TO THE DAY...CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH. HIGH WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
N TO NW WINDS STRENGTHEN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRES TONIGHT. COOLING
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR A TIME.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR SEVERAL REASONS.
850MB TEMPS ARE MARGINAL FOR ENHANCEMENT WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
AROUND...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT STRONGLY CYCLONIC...AND DGZ IS ABOVE
THE UPWARD MOTION AND MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FOR THAT MATTER.
UPSLOPING WILL BE A MAIN COMPONENT AIDING SNOWFALL...AND WHERE THAT
IS MAXIMIZED...EXPECT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUE AS A 1034MB SFC
RIDGE IS JUST W OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL START THE DAY TUE OUT OF THE
N WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C...WHICH IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE
LES. HAVE QUICKLY DIMINISHING POPS ON TUE AS UPSLOPE PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAT A HALF
INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TUE.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SHOULD STILL SEE COLD NIGHTS TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT AS LOWS
APPROACH 0F...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST FRI
AND SAT /ESPECIALLY SAT/ AND WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S IN PLACES BOTH
DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION
ON SAT. WHILE THIS IS NOT CERTAIN BY ANY MEANS...DID SHOW A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN POPS ON SUN. ALSO...KEPT FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGHER DEW POINTS SPREAD INTO THE AREA OVER A
SLOWLY MELTING SNOW PACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
LOW PRES SYSTEM SETTLING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
POOR CONDITIONS WITH OCNL -SN AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY VARY BTWN MVFR AND IFR...IFR
SHOULD BECOME THE PREVAILING CONDITION AT ALL TERMINALS BY AFTN. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT WITH SNOW PICKING UP FOR A TIME
UNDER STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE N TO NW WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AT KCMX LATE AS USPLOPING DIMINISHES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRES OVER FAR SE MANITOBA
MOVES E...PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY WITH GALES OVER THE ERN LAKE ENDING BY MID MORNING.
BEHIND THE LOW...N TO NW WINDS WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT...AIDED BY PRES
RISES APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MAGNITUDE OF PRES RISES SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HRS WHEN WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 35KT FROM NCNTRL
TO SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE AS HIGH
PRES RIDGE APPROACHES. WITH THE HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING OVER THE
UPPER LAKES TUE NIGHT/WED...LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT ARE EXPECTED...
AND THESE LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD LINGER ON THRU THU AND POSSIBLY FRI
AS WELL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ006-014-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ013.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOSS
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
638 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIBBON OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN
CONCERT WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT ENHANCED BY 850MB WINDS OF 40-45KT
AND DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF TROF IS SUPPORTING A
BAND OF SNOW THAT IS SHIFTING E ACROSS THE FCST AREA. AS OF 10Z...
BAND OF SNOW RUNS FROM MENOMINEE TO ESCANABA TO MUNISING. TO THE W
SNOW DIMINISHES...AND THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY -FZDZ AS WELL THOUGH
WITH SNOW ALREADY ON THE ROADS...ANY -FZDZ SHOULDN`T CONTRIBUTE TO
MAKING ROADS ANY MORE SLIPPERY THAN THEY ALREADY ARE. CLOSE TO
APPROACHING VORT MAX...ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW IS SPREADING ACROSS NW
WI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI.
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE ERN FCST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT E IN CONCERT WITH TRANSLATING RIBBON OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL LIKELY SHIFT OUT
OF THE FCST AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE ORDER 1.5-2.5 INCHES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS
OF -SN TODAY (ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY 1 INCH OR LESS) AS TROF MOVES
INTO THE UPPER LAKES. HOWEVER...SNOW WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE MORNING HRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS
WRN UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH IT`S A MILD START TO THE DAY...CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH. HIGH WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
N TO NW WINDS STRENGTHEN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRES TONIGHT. COOLING
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR A TIME.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR SEVERAL REASONS.
850MB TEMPS ARE MARGINAL FOR ENHANCEMENT WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
AROUND...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT STRONGLY CYCLONIC...AND DGZ IS ABOVE
THE UPWARD MOTION AND MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FOR THAT MATTER.
UPSLOPING WILL BE A MAIN COMPONENT AIDING SNOWFALL...AND WHERE THAT
IS MAXIMIZED...EXPECT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUE AS A 1034MB SFC
RIDGE IS JUST W OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL START THE DAY TUE OUT OF THE
N WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C...WHICH IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE
LES. HAVE QUICKLY DIMINISHING POPS ON TUE AS UPSLOPE PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAT A HALF
INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TUE.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SHOULD STILL SEE COLD NIGHTS TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT AS LOWS
APPROACH 0F...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST FRI
AND SAT /ESPECIALLY SAT/ AND WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S IN PLACES BOTH
DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION
ON SAT. WHILE THIS IS NOT CERTAIN BY ANY MEANS...DID SHOW A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN POPS ON SUN. ALSO...KEPT FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGHER DEW POINTS SPREAD INTO THE AREA OVER A
SLOWLY MELTING SNOW PACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
LOW PRES SYSTEM SETTLING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
POOR CONDITIONS WITH OCNL -SN AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY VARY BTWN MVFR AND IFR...IFR
SHOULD BECOME THE PREVAILING CONDITION AT ALL TERMINALS BY AFTN. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT WITH SNOW PICKING UP FOR A TIME
UNDER STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE N TO NW WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AT KCMX LATE AS USPLOPING DIMINISHES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRES OVER FAR SE MANITOBA
MOVES E...PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY WITH GALES OVER THE ERN LAKE ENDING BY MID MORNING.
BEHIND THE LOW...N TO NW WINDS WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT...AIDED BY PRES
RISES APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MAGNITUDE OF PRES RISES SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HRS WHEN WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 35KT FROM NCNTRL
TO SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE AS HIGH
PRES RIDGE APPROACHES. WITH THE HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING OVER THE
UPPER LAKES TUE NIGHT/WED...LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT ARE EXPECTED...
AND THESE LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD LINGER ON THRU THU AND POSSIBLY FRI
AS WELL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
534 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIBBON OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN
CONCERT WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT ENHANCED BY 850MB WINDS OF 40-45KT
AND DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF TROF IS SUPPORTING A
BAND OF SNOW THAT IS SHIFTING E ACROSS THE FCST AREA. AS OF 10Z...
BAND OF SNOW RUNS FROM MENOMINEE TO ESCANABA TO MUNISING. TO THE W
SNOW DIMINISHES...AND THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY -FZDZ AS WELL THOUGH
WITH SNOW ALREADY ON THE ROADS...ANY -FZDZ SHOULDN`T CONTRIBUTE TO
MAKING ROADS ANY MORE SLIPPERY THAN THEY ALREADY ARE. CLOSE TO
APPROACHING VORT MAX...ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW IS SPREADING ACROSS NW
WI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI.
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE ERN FCST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT E IN CONCERT WITH TRANSLATING RIBBON OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL LIKELY SHIFT OUT
OF THE FCST AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE ORDER 1.5-2.5 INCHES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS
OF -SN TODAY (ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY 1 INCH OR LESS) AS TROF MOVES
INTO THE UPPER LAKES. HOWEVER...SNOW WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE MORNING HRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS
WRN UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH IT`S A MILD START TO THE DAY...CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH. HIGH WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
N TO NW WINDS STRENGTHEN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRES TONIGHT. COOLING
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR A TIME.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR SEVERAL REASONS.
850MB TEMPS ARE MARGINAL FOR ENHANCEMENT WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
AROUND...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT STRONGLY CYCLONIC...AND DGZ IS ABOVE
THE UPWARD MOTION AND MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FOR THAT MATTER.
UPSLOPING WILL BE A MAIN COMPONENT AIDING SNOWFALL...AND WHERE THAT
IS MAXIMIZED...EXPECT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUE AS A 1034MB SFC
RIDGE IS JUST W OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL START THE DAY TUE OUT OF THE
N WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C...WHICH IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE
LES. HAVE QUICKLY DIMINISHING POPS ON TUE AS UPSLOPE PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAT A HALF
INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TUE.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SHOULD STILL SEE COLD NIGHTS TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT AS LOWS
APPROACH 0F...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST FRI
AND SAT /ESPECIALLY SAT/ AND WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S IN PLACES BOTH
DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION
ON SAT. WHILE THIS IS NOT CERTAIN BY ANY MEANS...DID SHOW A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN POPS ON SUN. ALSO...KEPT FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGHER DEW POINTS SPREAD INTO THE AREA OVER A
SLOWLY MELTING SNOW PACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
SNOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO MVFR. WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SNOW...THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE A PERIOD OF IFR VIS. LOOK FOR ALL SITES TO LOWER TO IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AS LOW-LVL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER A LOWERING
INVERSION. THE IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
WINDS VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE LOW...SOME LAKE AND UPSLOPE ENHANCED
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT IWD/CMX. OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN THE IFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRES OVER FAR SE MANITOBA
MOVES E...PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY WITH GALES OVER THE ERN LAKE ENDING BY MID MORNING.
BEHIND THE LOW...N TO NW WINDS WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT...AIDED BY PRES
RISES APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MAGNITUDE OF PRES RISES SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HRS WHEN WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 35KT FROM NCNTRL
TO SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE AS HIGH
PRES RIDGE APPROACHES. WITH THE HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING OVER THE
UPPER LAKES TUE NIGHT/WED...LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT ARE EXPECTED...
AND THESE LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD LINGER ON THRU THU AND POSSIBLY FRI
AS WELL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
342 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS ND THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE THE FEATURE OF
INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT SHIFTS E ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MON. AT THE SFC...THE SHORTWAVE SUPPORTED LOW PRES OVER NCNTRL
ND. TO THE E...HIGH PRES HAS SLIPPED INTO WRN QUEBEC. STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
DEPARTED HIGH PRES HAS LED TO MID-LVL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. RADARS ARE ALSO SHOWING RETURNS
UPSTREAM OVER MN AND NW WI...BUT SO FAR...ONLY NRN MN OBS WERE
REPORTING PCPN AT THE SFC.
TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...MODELS
INDICATE RIBBON OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN CONCERT WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ENHANCED BY 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT AND DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING W-E ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
CONSEQUENTLY...CATEGORICAL POPS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...SPREADING
INTO WRN UPPER MI THIS EVENING AND INTO THE CNTRL OVERNIGHT. SNOW
MAY NOT REACH THE FAR E AROUND KERY UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z. AVERAGED
MODEL QPF INDICATES 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES OF QPF TONIGHT OVER WEST AND
CENTRAL UPPER MI...SUGGESTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN GENERAL AS SNOW
TO WATER RATIOS SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN 10-12 TO 1. THESE
NUMBERS APPEAR ON TRACK FROM AN ISENTROPIC STANDPOINT AS MIXING
RATIOS OF 2-3G/KG ARE AVBL WITH CLOSE TO 3-6HRS OF ASCENT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER THE E SINCE SNOW DOESN`T BEGIN
UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. CLOUDS/PCPN/WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MORE THAN ROUGHLY 2-4 DEGREES FROM TODAYS
HIGH TEMPS.
MONDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FAR ERN CWA FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL 1.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR ERN
ALGER...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES. TRANSITION TO ISENTROPIC
DESCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD RESULT IN SCT
LIGHT SHSN WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AROUND HALF AN INCH. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAR ERN CWA SHOULD REMAIN BLO ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 3"/12 HRS SO WINTER WX ADVISORIES SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUE AS A 1034MB SFC
RIDGE IS JUST W OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL START THE DAY TUE OUT OF THE
N WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C...WHICH IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE
LES. HAVE QUICKLY DIMINISHING POPS ON TUE AS UPSLOPE PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAT A HALF
INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TUE.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SHOULD STILL SEE COLD NIGHTS TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT AS LOWS
APPROACH 0F...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST FRI
AND SAT /ESPECIALLY SAT/ AND WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S IN PLACES BOTH
DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION
ON SAT. WHILE THIS IS NOT CERTAIN BY ANY MEANS...DID SHOW A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN POPS ON SUN. ALSO...KEPT FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGHER DEW POINTS SPREAD INTO THE AREA OVER A
SLOWLY MELTING SNOW PACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
SNOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO MVFR. WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SNOW...THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE A PERIOD OF IFR VIS. LOOK FOR ALL SITES TO LOWER TO IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AS LOW-LVL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER A LOWERING
INVERSION. THE IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
WINDS VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE LOW...SOME LAKE AND UPSLOPE ENHANCED
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT IWD/CMX. OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN THE IFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND PRES FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRES WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY
GALES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS OVER THE W WL STAY MOSTLY BLO 30KT. AS LOW PRES/COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES LATE MON/MON EVENING...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW-N. WITH SYSTEM TRENDING WEAKER AS IT
DEPARTS...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BLO GALES MON NIGHT INTO TUE...NO
HIGHER THAN 30KT MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST. HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING
TUE NIGHT/WED MAY LINGER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN
WINDS UNDER 20KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1213 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS ND THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE THE FEATURE OF
INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT SHIFTS E ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MON. AT THE SFC...THE SHORTWAVE SUPPORTED LOW PRES OVER NCNTRL
ND. TO THE E...HIGH PRES HAS SLIPPED INTO WRN QUEBEC. STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
DEPARTED HIGH PRES HAS LED TO MID-LVL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. RADARS ARE ALSO SHOWING RETURNS
UPSTREAM OVER MN AND NW WI...BUT SO FAR...ONLY NRN MN OBS WERE
REPORTING PCPN AT THE SFC.
TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...MODELS
INDICATE RIBBON OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN CONCERT WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ENHANCED BY 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT AND DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING W-E ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
CONSEQUENTLY...CATEGORICAL POPS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...SPREADING
INTO WRN UPPER MI THIS EVENING AND INTO THE CNTRL OVERNIGHT. SNOW
MAY NOT REACH THE FAR E AROUND KERY UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z. AVERAGED
MODEL QPF INDICATES 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES OF QPF TONIGHT OVER WEST AND
CENTRAL UPPER MI...SUGGESTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN GENERAL AS SNOW
TO WATER RATIOS SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN 10-12 TO 1. THESE
NUMBERS APPEAR ON TRACK FROM AN ISENTROPIC STANDPOINT AS MIXING
RATIOS OF 2-3G/KG ARE AVBL WITH CLOSE TO 3-6HRS OF ASCENT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER THE E SINCE SNOW DOESN`T BEGIN
UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. CLOUDS/PCPN/WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MORE THAN ROUGHLY 2-4 DEGREES FROM TODAYS
HIGH TEMPS.
MONDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FAR ERN CWA FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL 1.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR ERN
ALGER...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES. TRANSITION TO ISENTROPIC
DESCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD RESULT IN SCT
LIGHT SHSN WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AROUND HALF AN INCH. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAR ERN CWA SHOULD REMAIN BLO ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 3"/12 HRS SO WINTER WX ADVISORIES SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
GOOD AGREEMENT IN LARGER SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE LENGTH OF THE
LONG TERM INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSES THE AREA ON
MONDAY WILL BE WEAKENING AS IS SLIDES EAST OF LK SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY
MORNING. NNW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT...AT LEAST IN DIMINISHING
STATE...EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE TO H7 LINGERS AND H85 TEMPS
DROP TO AROUND -8C. LOW-LEVEL WINDS NOT TOO CYCLONIC SO CONVERGENCE
WILL BE WEAK. SNOW ACCUMS MONDAY EVENING SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN
A COUPLE INCHES FOR NW CWA. DEPARTING DEEP MOISTURE AND LIMITED COLD
AIR /H9-H85 TEMPS -8C TO -10C/ IS MARGINAL FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT...SO
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH SHARPLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALL CWA. LIGHT
LES COULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT CONTINUED DRYING AND
SFC RIDGING WILL SPELL AN END TO LES TUE AFTN.
BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT...APPEARS QUIET WITH NO BIG STORMS OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FEATURES RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE MID PORTION OF THE CONUS MID TO LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN STRONG EAST COAST STORM
THAT WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
NEW ENGLAND. THE BUILDING UPR RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SPRAWLING SFC RIDGE
FM CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY ONLY MOVING SLOWLY
TO NORTHERN QUEBEC TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY.
COULD BE A COUPLE CHILLY NIGHTS INLAND ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND AS PWATS ARE BLO 75 PCT
OF NORMAL. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...MINS EITHER NIGHT MAY FALL
TOWARD ZERO. FOR NOW HAVE SOME SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THERE
UNTIL CAN GET BETTER HANDLE ON EXTENT OF MID CLOUDS.
BY NEXT WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. SW FLOW SFC-H85 WILL TRANSPORT HIGHER DWPNTS FM THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. YET IT IS NOT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT SFC DWPNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER 32F. SOUNDINGS FM GFS
INDICATE SHALLOWER MOISTURE THAN THEY SHOWED YDY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SO COULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE WHICH WOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SHOT UP SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE. ONCE DWPNTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING PROSPECTS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG AS THIS MOISTURE RIDES OVER GRADUAL MELTING SNOWPACK. ECMWF
AND GFS ALSO INDICATE MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES WITH SOME WEAK LIFT
DEVELOPING DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN CONUS. WILL HAVE SMALL POPS IN THERE FOR
RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ALSO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG SINCE
DWPNTS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID-UPR 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
SNOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO MVFR. WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SNOW...THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE A PERIOD OF IFR VIS. LOOK FOR ALL SITES TO LOWER TO IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AS LOW-LVL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER A LOWERING
INVERSION. THE IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
WINDS VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE LOW...SOME LAKE AND UPSLOPE ENHANCED
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT IWD/CMX. OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN THE IFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND PRES FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRES WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY
GALES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS OVER THE W WL STAY MOSTLY BLO 30KT. AS LOW PRES/COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES LATE MON/MON EVENING...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW-N. WITH SYSTEM TRENDING WEAKER AS IT
DEPARTS...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BLO GALES MON NIGHT INTO TUE...NO
HIGHER THAN 30KT MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST. HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING
TUE NIGHT/WED MAY LINGER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN
WINDS UNDER 20KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ248>250-
265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1205 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF
INTERNATIONAL FALLS... WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOW AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN MINNESOTA AT THE
CURRENT TIME... WITH A SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL HELP PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING... WITH
THE FRONT QUICKLY WORKING THROUGH WISCONSIN BY AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE STATE... WITH LAYERED CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE HELPING TO PRODUCE SOMEWHAT MORE
MEANINGFUL RETURNS ON RADAR NORTH OF I-94 WHERE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS OCCURRED. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WELL UPSTREAM
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN.
FORECAST ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
LINGERING LIGHT PCPN IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN. SOME MIXED
PCPN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE LACK OF SATURATION AND
PRESENCE OF ONLY LIQUID WATER WITHIN CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME
MIST/DRIZZLE... WHICH IS LEADING TO SOME LIGHT ICING IN LOCATIONS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING OR WHERE UNTREATED GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE SUB-FREEZING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LAYERED
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ARE HELPING TO SEED THINGS
WITH ICE CRYSTALS AND ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST... SO ANY
LINGERING PCPN TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH OF LIFT. PCPN TYPE COULD REMAIN AN
ISSUE... ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST WE SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH
DEPTH OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY FOR ANY PCPN TO BE MAINLY SNOW
GIVEN THE COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALOFT. LOOKING UPSTREAM
THERE IS MINIMAL PCPN BEING REPORTED IN THE STRATOCU AREA... WITH
PCPN MAINLY BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL.
MODEL DISCUSSION/PREFERENCES...
DO NOT HAVE A STRONG PREFERENCE FOR ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IN THE
SHORT TERM... SO STUCK WITH A COMPROMISE OF HRRR... NAM... RAP...
AND HOPWRF SOLUTIONS. THESE ALL POINT TOWARD MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT... WITH DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK IN TOWARD THE END
OF THAT PERIOD TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTATIONS...
THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY AS THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE SECONDARY WAVE QUICKLY ROTATES
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER... CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SOME CHANCE OF PCPN GOING
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MIXED PCPN... ALTHOUGH
THE GENERAL TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOWFLAKES
THAN ANYTHING ELSE WHERE PCPN OCCURS.
DETAILED DISCUSSION FOR ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL DETERMINE PCPN TYPE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CHANCE FOR FZDZ OR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES WITH DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A LOSS
OF ICE CRYSTALS. HOWEVER... PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
DOWNSWING... SO ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED IN ITS
OCCURRENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT... WORKING TO BRING ANY LINGERING PCPN TO AN END AS
SUBSIDENCE FINALLY WORKS TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO
EAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE/UNCERTAINTY...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDY SKIES TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING... WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT LIGHT PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON... WITH CONFIDENCE OF PCPN
OCCURRENCE DECREASING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL MIXED PCPN IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
BIGGEST QUESTION DURING THE LONG TERM STILL REVOLVES AROUND HOW WARM
CAN WE GET FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH REALLY MEANS THAT QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH STRATUS DO WE SEE THEN. NO MAJOR PRECIP MAKERS LOOK TO
IMPACT THE AREA...WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT
COMMENCING THIS WEEK...AS THE DEEP UPPER LOWS AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC
AIRMASSES SHIFT TO THE EAST BY ABOUT 60 DEGS OF LONGITUDE. THIS WILL
PUSH THE ARCTIC OFF INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND EASTERN ASIA...WITH
MUCH OF THE NORTH AMERICAN LAND MASS REMAINING ARCTIC AIRMASS
FREE...WITH ABOUT THE ONLY COLD AIR OVER THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND
BEING FOUND UNDER THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF OVER THE
EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH A MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LOW WORKING
FROM NODAK INTO CENTRAL IOWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SFC... A BETTER THAN 1032MB SW-NE ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE WORKING
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...HENCE WHY THE UPPER WAVE IS MOISTURE
STARVED IN THE LOW LEVELS. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
WEEK BY FAR...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 20S...BUT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...WITH SRLY FLOW SETTING
UP FROM WEDNESDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THESE SRLY WINDS BLOW...AN
IMPRESSIVE H5 RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. BY
SATURDAY ALL MED RANGE MODELS SHOW H5 HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 570
DM...WHICH WOULD BE SOME OF THE HIGHEST H5 HEIGHTS EVER OBSERVED IN
THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IN THE COMBINED STC/MPX SOUNDING
HISTORY...WHICH DATES BACK TO 1948. TO GO WITH THAT...THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW H85 TEMPS FRIDAY/SATURDAY BUILDING TO BETWEEN +12C
AND +16C. LIKE THE H5 HEIGHTS...H85 TEMPS THIS HIGH ARE BASICALLY AT
THE OBSERVED MAX IN DECEMBER FOR STC/MPX.
TO GO ALONG WITH THESE IMPRESSIVE H5 HEIGHTS AND H85 TEMPS...WE WILL
BE SEEING OUR DEWP TEMPS SURGE INTO AT LEAST THE 40S...WITH THE
ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING 50 DEGREE DEWPS ALL THE WAY UP TO I-94 ON
SATURDAY. EVEN IF WE ONLY SEE DEWPS IN THE MID 40S...THAT WOULD BE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL HIGH. THE MAJORITY OF THE
TIME WHEN DEWPS IN THE WINTER EXCEED THE NORMAL HIGHS BY THAT MUCH
IT MEANS A DAY FULL OF FOG AND STRATUS...AND THAT CERTAINLY LOOKS TO
BE THE CASE ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY MAY AVOID THE STRATUS AND GO ABOUT
MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE 40+ DEWPS GET
HERE...THEY LOOK TO COME WITH PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS. WHAT DOES ALL
THAT MEAN...WELL IT WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO REACH RECORD HIGH MAX
TEMPS /51 TO 53/...BUT WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBABLY SETTING SOME NEW
RECORD WARM MINIMUMS OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
WORK ACROSS THE MPX AREA...BUT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH LATE ENOUGH TO
GIVE ALL BE WRN MN ONE MORE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S BEFORE
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.
FOR PRECIP...THE ATMO LOOKS TO REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING UNTIL THE
COLD FROM STARTS MOVING INTO WRN MN SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO BE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SAY WE
LACK ICE CRYSTALS...WITH PRIMARY TYPE BE DZ THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THEY ARE FORECAST TO
BE...P-TYPE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...IT WILL BE ALL
DZ/RA UNTIL AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
ALTHOUGH IT DOES COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DOOR TO THE ARCTIC REMAINING FIRMLY SHUT
FOR US FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS...WITH THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER
LOOKING TO START OFF ON A VERY MILD NOTE AFTER A VERY COLD DAY 1.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER WEST CENTRAL WI THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE THE
PERSISTENCE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AREA-WIDE. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THE 18Z
ISSUANCE WAS TO PROLONG THE LOW CLOUD COVER...AS IT LOOKS AS IF
MOST SITES WILL STAY SOCKED IN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW-END
MVFR CIGS /CIRCA 1500-2000FT/ SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL DEGRADE BACK BELOW 1000FT OVERNIGHT.
WESTERN SITES /KAXN AND KRWF/ MAY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...THEN VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY AROUND OR UNDER
5 KTS FOR TUESDAY.
KMSP...
CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 1700 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
SCATTERING AND VFR CIGS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY CIG HEIGHTS COULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO
1900 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ODDS ARE LOW AND IT WOULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 9-12KTS FOR
TONIGHT...THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 5-6KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WIND LESS THAN
10 KT BECOMING SOUTH WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
543 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF
INTERNATIONAL FALLS... WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOW AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN MINNESOTA AT THE
CURRENT TIME... WITH A SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL HELP PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING... WITH
THE FRONT QUICKLY WORKING THROUGH WISCONSIN BY AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE STATE... WITH LAYERED CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE HELPING TO PRODUCE SOMEWHAT MORE
MEANINGFUL RETURNS ON RADAR NORTH OF I-94 WHERE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS OCCURRED. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WELL UPSTREAM
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN.
FORECAST ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
LINGERING LIGHT PCPN IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN. SOME MIXED
PCPN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE LACK OF SATURATION AND
PRESENCE OF ONLY LIQUID WATER WITHIN CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME
MIST/DRIZZLE... WHICH IS LEADING TO SOME LIGHT ICING IN LOCATIONS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING OR WHERE UNTREATED GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE SUB-FREEZING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LAYERED
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ARE HELPING TO SEED THINGS
WITH ICE CRYSTALS AND ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST... SO ANY
LINGERING PCPN TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH OF LIFT. PCPN TYPE COULD REMAIN AN
ISSUE... ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST WE SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH
DEPTH OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY FOR ANY PCPN TO BE MAINLY SNOW
GIVEN THE COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALOFT. LOOKING UPSTREAM
THERE IS MINIMAL PCPN BEING REPORTED IN THE STRATOCU AREA... WITH
PCPN MAINLY BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL.
MODEL DISCUSSION/PREFERENCES...
DO NOT HAVE A STRONG PREFERENCE FOR ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IN THE
SHORT TERM... SO STUCK WITH A COMPROMISE OF HRRR... NAM... RAP...
AND HOPWRF SOLUTIONS. THESE ALL POINT TOWARD MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT... WITH DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK IN TOWARD THE END
OF THAT PERIOD TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTATIONS...
THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY AS THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE SECONDARY WAVE QUICKLY ROTATES
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER... CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SOME CHANCE OF PCPN GOING
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MIXED PCPN... ALTHOUGH
THE GENERAL TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOWFLAKES
THAN ANYTHING ELSE WHERE PCPN OCCURS.
DETAILED DISCUSSION FOR ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL DETERMINE PCPN TYPE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CHANCE FOR FZDZ OR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES WITH DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A LOSS
OF ICE CRYSTALS. HOWEVER... PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
DOWNSWING... SO ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED IN ITS
OCCURRENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT... WORKING TO BRING ANY LINGERING PCPN TO AN END AS
SUBSIDENCE FINALLY WORKS TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO
EAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE/UNCERTAINTY...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDY SKIES TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING... WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT LIGHT PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON... WITH CONFIDENCE OF PCPN
OCCURRENCE DECREASING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL MIXED PCPN IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
BIGGEST QUESTION DURING THE LONG TERM STILL REVOLVES AROUND HOW WARM
CAN WE GET FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH REALLY MEANS THAT QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH STRATUS DO WE SEE THEN. NO MAJOR PRECIP MAKERS LOOK TO
IMPACT THE AREA...WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT
COMMENCING THIS WEEK...AS THE DEEP UPPER LOWS AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC
AIRMASSES SHIFT TO THE EAST BY ABOUT 60 DEGS OF LONGITUDE. THIS WILL
PUSH THE ARCTIC OFF INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND EASTERN ASIA...WITH
MUCH OF THE NORTH AMERICAN LAND MASS REMAINING ARCTIC AIRMASS
FREE...WITH ABOUT THE ONLY COLD AIR OVER THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND
BEING FOUND UNDER THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF OVER THE
EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH A MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LOW WORKING
FROM NODAK INTO CENTRAL IOWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SFC... A BETTER THAN 1032MB SW-NE ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE WORKING
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...HENCE WHY THE UPPER WAVE IS MOISTURE
STARVED IN THE LOW LEVELS. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
WEEK BY FAR...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 20S...BUT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...WITH SRLY FLOW SETTING
UP FROM WEDNESDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THESE SRLY WINDS BLOW...AN
IMPRESSIVE H5 RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. BY
SATURDAY ALL MED RANGE MODELS SHOW H5 HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 570
DM...WHICH WOULD BE SOME OF THE HIGHEST H5 HEIGHTS EVER OBSERVED IN
THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IN THE COMBINED STC/MPX SOUNDING
HISTORY...WHICH DATES BACK TO 1948. TO GO WITH THAT...THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW H85 TEMPS FRIDAY/SATURDAY BUILDING TO BETWEEN +12C
AND +16C. LIKE THE H5 HEIGHTS...H85 TEMPS THIS HIGH ARE BASICALLY AT
THE OBSERVED MAX IN DECEMBER FOR STC/MPX.
TO GO ALONG WITH THESE IMPRESSIVE H5 HEIGHTS AND H85 TEMPS...WE WILL
BE SEEING OUR DEWP TEMPS SURGE INTO AT LEAST THE 40S...WITH THE
ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING 50 DEGREE DEWPS ALL THE WAY UP TO I-94 ON
SATURDAY. EVEN IF WE ONLY SEE DEWPS IN THE MID 40S...THAT WOULD BE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL HIGH. THE MAJORITY OF THE
TIME WHEN DEWPS IN THE WINTER EXCEED THE NORMAL HIGHS BY THAT MUCH
IT MEANS A DAY FULL OF FOG AND STRATUS...AND THAT CERTAINLY LOOKS TO
BE THE CASE ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY MAY AVOID THE STRATUS AND GO ABOUT
MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE 40+ DEWPS GET
HERE...THEY LOOK TO COME WITH PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS. WHAT DOES ALL
THAT MEAN...WELL IT WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO REACH RECORD HIGH MAX
TEMPS /51 TO 53/...BUT WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBABLY SETTING SOME NEW
RECORD WARM MINIMUMS OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
WORK ACROSS THE MPX AREA...BUT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH LATE ENOUGH TO
GIVE ALL BE WRN MN ONE MORE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S BEFORE
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.
FOR PRECIP...THE ATMO LOOKS TO REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING UNTIL THE
COLD FROM STARTS MOVING INTO WRN MN SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO BE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SAY WE
LACK ICE CRYSTALS...WITH PRIMARY TYPE BE DZ THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THEY ARE FORECAST TO
BE...P-TYPE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...IT WILL BE ALL
DZ/RA UNTIL AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
ALTHOUGH IT DOES COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DOOR TO THE ARCTIC REMAINING FIRMLY SHUT
FOR US FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS...WITH THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER
LOOKING TO START OFF ON A VERY MILD NOTE AFTER A VERY COLD DAY 1.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. VISIBILITIES
ARE GENERALLY IMPROVING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DRIZZLE
ENDING IN MOST LOCATIONS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
AND PICK UP. HOWEVER... LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WELL TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT... SO WILL CONTINUE TO CONTEND WITH SOME
IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. CEILINGS ARE
IMPROVING SOMEWHAT BACK ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA... AND EVENTUALLY
EXPECT TO SEE THAT OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. FEEL
THE NAM IS A BIT TOO PESSIMISTIC IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... AND TRENDED
MORE TOWARD THE GFS BEYOND 03Z. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
LOW OVERALL AND WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE A DAY WITH NO SHORTAGE OF
AMENDMENTS.
KMSP...OVERALL TREND HIGHLIGHTED IN THE TAF IS EXPECTED... BUT
TIMING OF CEILING AND VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENTS COULD CERTAINLY VARY
BY A FEW HOURS... AS COULD THE ACTUAL CEILING HEIGHTS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MOST OF THE LIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE ENDING
SHORTLY... ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES WITH NO IMPACT ON
VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WIND
LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SOUTH WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
334 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF
INTERNATIONAL FALLS... WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOW AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN MINNESOTA AT THE
CURRENT TIME... WITH A SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL HELP PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING... WITH
THE FRONT QUICKLY WORKING THROUGH WISCONSIN BY AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE STATE... WITH LAYERED CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE HELPING TO PRODUCE SOMEWHAT MORE
MEANINGFUL RETURNS ON RADAR NORTH OF I-94 WHERE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS OCCURRED. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WELL UPSTREAM
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN.
FORECAST ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
LINGERING LIGHT PCPN IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN. SOME MIXED
PCPN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE LACK OF SATURATION AND
PRESENCE OF ONLY LIQUID WATER WITHIN CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME
MIST/DRIZZLE... WHICH IS LEADING TO SOME LIGHT ICING IN LOCATIONS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING OR WHERE UNTREATED GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE SUB-FREEZING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LAYERED
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ARE HELPING TO SEED THINGS
WITH ICE CRYSTALS AND ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST... SO ANY
LINGERING PCPN TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH OF LIFT. PCPN TYPE COULD REMAIN AN
ISSUE... ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST WE SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH
DEPTH OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY FOR ANY PCPN TO BE MAINLY SNOW
GIVEN THE COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALOFT. LOOKING UPSTREAM
THERE IS MINIMAL PCPN BEING REPORTED IN THE STRATOCU AREA... WITH
PCPN MAINLY BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL.
MODEL DISCUSSION/PREFERENCES...
DO NOT HAVE A STRONG PREFERENCE FOR ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IN THE
SHORT TERM... SO STUCK WITH A COMPROMISE OF HRRR... NAM... RAP...
AND HOPWRF SOLUTIONS. THESE ALL POINT TOWARD MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT... WITH DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK IN TOWARD THE END
OF THAT PERIOD TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTATIONS...
THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY AS THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE SECONDARY WAVE QUICKLY ROTATES
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER... CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SOME CHANCE OF PCPN GOING
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MIXED PCPN... ALTHOUGH
THE GENERAL TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOWFLAKES
THAN ANYTHING ELSE WHERE PCPN OCCURS.
DETAILED DISCUSSION FOR ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL DETERMINE PCPN TYPE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CHANCE FOR FZDZ OR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES WITH DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A LOSS
OF ICE CRYSTALS. HOWEVER... PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
DOWNSWING... SO ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED IN ITS
OCCURRENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT... WORKING TO BRING ANY LINGERING PCPN TO AN END AS
SUBSIDENCE FINALLY WORKS TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO
EAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE/UNCERTAINTY...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDY SKIES TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING... WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT LIGHT PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON... WITH CONFIDENCE OF PCPN
OCCURRENCE DECREASING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL MIXED PCPN IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
BIGGEST QUESTION DURING THE LONG TERM STILL REVOLVES AROUND HOW WARM
CAN WE GET FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH REALLY MEANS THAT QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH STRATUS DO WE SEE THEN. NO MAJOR PRECIP MAKERS LOOK TO
IMPACT THE AREA...WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT
COMMENCING THIS WEEK...AS THE DEEP UPPER LOWS AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC
AIRMASSES SHIFT TO THE EAST BY ABOUT 60 DEGS OF LONGITUDE. THIS WILL
PUSH THE ARCTIC OFF INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND EASTERN ASIA...WITH
MUCH OF THE NORTH AMERICAN LAND MASS REMAINING ARCTIC AIRMASS
FREE...WITH ABOUT THE ONLY COLD AIR OVER THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND
BEING FOUND UNDER THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF OVER THE
EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH A MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LOW WORKING
FROM NODAK INTO CENTRAL IOWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SFC... A BETTER THAN 1032MB SW-NE ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE WORKING
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...HENCE WHY THE UPPER WAVE IS MOISTURE
STARVED IN THE LOW LEVELS. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
WEEK BY FAR...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 20S...BUT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...WITH SRLY FLOW SETTING
UP FROM WEDNESDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THESE SRLY WINDS BLOW...AN
IMPRESSIVE H5 RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. BY
SATURDAY ALL MED RANGE MODELS SHOW H5 HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 570
DM...WHICH WOULD BE SOME OF THE HIGHEST H5 HEIGHTS EVER OBSERVED IN
THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IN THE COMBINED STC/MPX SOUNDING
HISTORY...WHICH DATES BACK TO 1948. TO GO WITH THAT...THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW H85 TEMPS FRIDAY/SATURDAY BUILDING TO BETWEEN +12C
AND +16C. LIKE THE H5 HEIGHTS...H85 TEMPS THIS HIGH ARE BASICALLY AT
THE OBSERVED MAX IN DECEMBER FOR STC/MPX.
TO GO ALONG WITH THESE IMPRESSIVE H5 HEIGHTS AND H85 TEMPS...WE WILL
BE SEEING OUR DEWP TEMPS SURGE INTO AT LEAST THE 40S...WITH THE
ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING 50 DEGREE DEWPS ALL THE WAY UP TO I-94 ON
SATURDAY. EVEN IF WE ONLY SEE DEWPS IN THE MID 40S...THAT WOULD BE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL HIGH. THE MAJORITY OF THE
TIME WHEN DEWPS IN THE WINTER EXCEED THE NORMAL HIGHS BY THAT MUCH
IT MEANS A DAY FULL OF FOG AND STRATUS...AND THAT CERTAINLY LOOKS TO
BE THE CASE ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY MAY AVOID THE STRATUS AND GO ABOUT
MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE 40+ DEWPS GET
HERE...THEY LOOK TO COME WITH PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS. WHAT DOES ALL
THAT MEAN...WELL IT WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO REACH RECORD HIGH MAX
TEMPS /51 TO 53/...BUT WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBABLY SETTING SOME NEW
RECORD WARM MINIMUMS OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
WORK ACROSS THE MPX AREA...BUT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH LATE ENOUGH TO
GIVE ALL BE WRN MN ONE MORE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S BEFORE
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.
FOR PRECIP...THE ATMO LOOKS TO REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING UNTIL THE
COLD FROM STARTS MOVING INTO WRN MN SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO BE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SAY WE
LACK ICE CRYSTALS...WITH PRIMARY TYPE BE DZ THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THEY ARE FORECAST TO
BE...P-TYPE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...IT WILL BE ALL
DZ/RA UNTIL AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
ALTHOUGH IT DOES COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DOOR TO THE ARCTIC REMAINING FIRMLY SHUT
FOR US FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS...WITH THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER
LOOKING TO START OFF ON A VERY MILD NOTE AFTER A VERY COLD DAY 1.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM AXN TO
RWF AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT. A
PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND OF THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN
WITH MVFR CIGS WITHIN ABOUT 3 HOURS FOLLOWING THE FROPA...AND THEY
WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY EVENING.
KMSP...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL
THE FROPA. MAY BRIEFLY GET DOWN TO LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT FOLLOWING
THE FROPA SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED AND COULD SEE A FEW
HOURS OF VFR BEFORE MVFR CIGS RETURN FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. LIGHT/VAR WINDS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SSE 5-10 KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
321 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE CLOUD
COVER AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES. ATTENTION TURNS MORE TOWARD THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
LARGE SCALE 500 MB PATTERN AT 12Z HAD THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES.
A TROUGH WAS LOCATED TO OUR EAST/NORTHEAST...A RIDGE STRETCHED
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO ALASKA AND A BROAD TROUGH WAS OUT
OVER THE PACIFIC. A CLOSED LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OUT OF THE TROUGH TO
OUR EAST IN THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE UNITED STATES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THAT FEATURE WILL THEN LIKELY WOBBLE INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES INTO SATURDAY. IN OUR AREA...GENERAL RIDGING OCCURS IN THE
MID LEVELS BUT THERE WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING EAST
THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE...MAKING THE PATTERN A BIT MESSY. THE TROUGH
IN THE PACIFIC WILL BE PROGRESSIVE..AND BRING VERY WET WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK.
TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER IS PROBLEMATIC. LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN A BAND
FROM NORTHERN IOWA ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THESE MAY TRY TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THE MOST
RECENT RAP AND HRRR MODEL RUNS TEND TO DISSIPATE THIS
CLOUDINESS...BUT 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION NAM AND GFS DID BRING THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. A
COLD FRONT WAS ALREADY TRACKING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR TONIGHT. WE EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO
THE LOWER 20S SOUTH.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH ONLY POOR TO FAIR MIXING.
NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY TURNING TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY...AND HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 30S. AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
STAYS TO OUR SOUTH IN KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
AFTER COORDINATION WITH BORDERING OFFICES...ADDED SOME DRIZZLE INTO
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE 32 F. KEPT SOME
MENTION OF DRIZZLE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI FOR THURSDAY SO DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF DRIZZLE IN THAT PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD REACH
INTO THE 40S...POSSIBLY WARMER IF CLOUD COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
PATTERN IS A BIT MORE ACTIVE IN THIS PERIOD. 500 MB RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS OUR AREA AND INTO ONTARIO AT 12Z FRIDAY
...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF A
STRONG TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. WENT SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY LOWER/MID 50S FRIDAY AND MID/
UPPER 50S SATURDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE SOME
MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA FROM SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA. ONE MAIN MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE
THE OTHER MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PCPN AMOUNTS OUT OF OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. TRAILING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WE WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST A SCT SC DECK AT ALL
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS MAY BE A BKN MVFR DECK FOR A FEW HOURS AT
KOFK/KOMA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MRNG.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1043 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONCERN REMAINS REGARDING LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NW/WC VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS ARE GENERALLY 2 DEG OR LESS ACROSS THE NW...BUT
MUCH THICKER HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN SHORTLY. THUS...THIS IS
NOT THE IDEAL SITUATION FOR LOW CLOUD AND/OR FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT
QUITE A BIT OF THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN NOTED IN AZ. WITH CONFIDENCE
SHAKY...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A VCFG AT KFMN. MEANWHILE...LIFR
CIGS/VSBY ARE ONGOING AT KHOB...AND MOST HI-RES MODELS SHOW THESE
CONDITIONS EXPANDING UP THE PECOS VALLEY TOWARD KROW...BEFORE THE
BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAT LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL OCCUR AT KROW. THE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
STICK AROUND THRU MONDAY...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
18Z. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT SE OF A
LINE FROM KTCC TO KROW.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1013 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2014...
.UPDATE...
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NM FOR TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT. LATEST RUC INDICATES DEWPOINTS TO
FALL SOMEWHAT AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL...AND A PERSISTENT
PATCH OF HIGH RH VALUES DEPICTED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE CUBA AREA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIVER OF MOISTURE SHOWN
WORKING UP THE PECOS VALLEY THROUGH KROW...SO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THERE. TWEAKED A FEW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AS WELL.
UPDATED ZFP JUST TRANSMITTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RECENT WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
THEN...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING FROM THE UPPER BAJA
PENINSULA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY TO LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER
WARMER AND DRIER PERIOD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK...A STRONGER AND COLDER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CROSS SLOWLY
FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL ARRIVE OVERHEAD FROM
THE WEST...ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. MODEL SURFACE RH
PROGS SUGGEST THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG TO PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
PLATEAU...BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONDENSATION OF
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME THICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF SOME
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG ALONG THE PECOS RIVER IN CHAVES
COUNTY AND EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES.
MODELS MAKE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAYS UPPER TROUGH OUT TO BE A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED IN THE LATEST RUNS WITH SOME AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH 700
MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE PLUS 2 TO 4 DEGREE
RANGE...THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH. THE MAIN WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
MODELS SUGGEST WETTING PRECIP COULD BE SPOTTY. THE LAST COUPLE
SYSTEMS CAME IN A BIT WETTER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THIS ONE
DIFFERS IN THAT ITS MOISTURE TAP IS MORE POULTRY AND OUT OF THE
SOUTH RATHER THAN OUT OF THE SW AND OFF THE BAJA COAST.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKENDS STORM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE AGREEING
ON A DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA FROM THE
WEST NW...BUT THEY DISAGREE ON WHETHER WETTING PRECIP WILL SPREAD
INTO WESTERN NM FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE STORM IS PROGGED
TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD LATER IN THE WEEKEND...AND IT
MAY DRAW A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION TODAY IS PROVIDING
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOWER SURFACE HUMIDITIES THAN ON
SATURDAY. WETTING RAINFALL THAT IMPACTED PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WILL RELEGATE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES
TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP WITHIN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT GOOD AS THICKER HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THICKER HIGH CLOUD COVER MONDAY HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL TREND LOWER AGAIN AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AGAIN.
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE
SLIDES VERY SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE MOIST RETURN FLOW OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY AND MILD FOR EARLY DECEMBER. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION
WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS BENEATH THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER WAVE FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN NM. THE EAST WILL SEE A FEW
HOURS OF GOOD VENTILATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND
HELP SCOUR ANY REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE EAST. THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN QUICKLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LARGE SCALE STORM SYSTEM CRASHING ONTO
THE WEST COAST. RIDGE TOP AND EAST SLOPE WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FRIDAY MORNING THEN SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS LEE
TROUGHING DEEPENS. VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE MOST AREAS AND TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. MIN HUMIDITY
VALUES STILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH MOST LOCALES ABOVE 25 TO 30 PCT.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISES A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK WITH A
POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SLOW-MOVING STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
GUYER
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1013 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NM FOR TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT. LATEST RUC INDICATES DEWPOINTS TO
FALL SOMEWHAT AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL...AND A PERSISTENT
PATCH OF HIGH RH VALUES DEPICTED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE CUBA AREA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIVER OF MOISTURE SHOWN
WORKING UP THE PECOS VALLEY THROUGH KROW...SO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THERE. TWEAKED A FEW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AS WELL.
UPDATED ZFP JUST TRANSMITTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...511 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG FINALLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
KFMN...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT IT WILL REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY IMPACT KFMN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INSERT INTO THE TAF ATTM...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORRED. THE
REASON FOR THE LOW CONFIDENCE IS A SCT-BKN CIRRUS LAYER MOVING
EAST TO WEST OVER THE AREA. HI-RES MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY NEAR KROW. HAVE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AS IT WILL TAKE LONGER
FOR THE HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE OVERHEAD.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RECENT WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
THEN...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING FROM THE UPPER BAJA
PENINSULA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY TO LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER
WARMER AND DRIER PERIOD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK...A STRONGER AND COLDER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CROSS SLOWLY
FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL ARRIVE OVERHEAD FROM
THE WEST...ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. MODEL SURFACE RH
PROGS SUGGEST THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG TO PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
PLATEAU...BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONDENSATION OF
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME THICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF SOME
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG ALONG THE PECOS RIVER IN CHAVES
COUNTY AND EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES.
MODELS MAKE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAYS UPPER TROUGH OUT TO BE A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED IN THE LATEST RUNS WITH SOME AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH 700
MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE PLUS 2 TO 4 DEGREE
RANGE...THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH. THE MAIN WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
MODELS SUGGEST WETTING PRECIP COULD BE SPOTTY. THE LAST COUPLE
SYSTEMS CAME IN A BIT WETTER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THIS ONE
DIFFERS IN THAT ITS MOISTURE TAP IS MORE POULTRY AND OUT OF THE
SOUTH RATHER THAN OUT OF THE SW AND OFF THE BAJA COAST.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKENDS STORM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE AGREEING
ON A DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA FROM THE
WEST NW...BUT THEY DISAGREE ON WHETHER WETTING PRECIP WILL SPREAD
INTO WESTERN NM FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE STORM IS PROGGED
TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD LATER IN THE WEEKEND...AND IT
MAY DRAW A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION TODAY IS PROVIDING
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOWER SURFACE HUMIDITIES THAN ON
SATURDAY. WETTING RAINFALL THAT IMPACTED PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WILL RELEGATE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES
TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP WITHIN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT GOOD AS THICKER HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THICKER HIGH CLOUD COVER MONDAY HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL TREND LOWER AGAIN AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AGAIN.
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE
SLIDES VERY SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE MOIST RETURN FLOW OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY AND MILD FOR EARLY DECEMBER. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION
WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS BENEATH THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER WAVE FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN NM. THE EAST WILL SEE A FEW
HOURS OF GOOD VENTILATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND
HELP SCOUR ANY REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE EAST. THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN QUICKLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LARGE SCALE STORM SYSTEM CRASHING ONTO
THE WEST COAST. RIDGE TOP AND EAST SLOPE WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FRIDAY MORNING THEN SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS LEE
TROUGHING DEEPENS. VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE MOST AREAS AND TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. MIN HUMIDITY
VALUES STILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH MOST LOCALES ABOVE 25 TO 30 PCT.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISES A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK WITH A
POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SLOW-MOVING STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
GUYER
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
706 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY SLOWLY MOVING NOR EASTER WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
REGION. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
0645 PM UPDATE...
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS STILL
STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT WEST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AT THIS HOUR SO
WITH THIS UPDATE WE REDUCED POPS, QPF, AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA FOR THIS EVENING AS BANDING WILL BE
WEAKENING BY THE TIME PRECIP MOVES IN.
IN TERMS OF P-TYPE, THE LOWER LEVELS ARE FINALLY
COOLING WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. AS WARMER AIR IS WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR AREAS FARTHER NORTH, PRECIP IS STILL FALLING AS RAIN AROUND
ROME AND SYRACUSE. WE EXPECT THE OVERALL TREND TO BE A CHANGE TO
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE STORM TOTAL GRIDS WERE RERUN BASED ON THESE
LATEST UPDATES AND FOR MOST AREAS THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES. DUE
TO THE SLOWER CHANGE OVER AND SLOWER WESTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP,
AMOUNTS WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR LUZERNE AND STEUBEN COUNTIES.
1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES HAS DROPPED DOWN TO NR 1000MB AS IT SPINS OFF THE JERSEY
SHORE. MODERATE TO HVY PCPN IS ONGOING ACRS ERN HALF OF CWA AS
EXPECTED BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES ARE STILL RIGHT AT OR BLO FRZG AS OF 17Z WITH -FZRA
FALLING AT THESE LOCATIONS AND HEARING ABOUT NUMEROUS MOTOR VEHICLE
ACCIDENTS.
PCPN HAS ESSENTIALLY HIT A BRICK WALL AT THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO MV MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS
NOW UNTIL AFT 00Z. DEFORMATION BAND THAT THE MODELS WERE INSISTENT
WUD ROTATE WEST THRU THE EVNG HRS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE A FRACTURED
BAND OF MIXED PCPN.
H9 TEMPS PER LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATING BLYR TEMPS RMNG ISOTHERMAL
THRU 21Z THIS AFTN AND VRY SLOWLY DROPPING BYND THIS TIME. EXPECT A
MIXED BAG THRU BULK OF THE OVRNGT FOR SXNS EAST OF I-81 WITH CLD AIR
BEING PULLED IN FM THE WEST. ANOTHER WV FCST TO MV THRU NRN ZONES
AFT 06Z TONIGHT AND WITH MOISTURE FM LK ADDED IN EXPECT SVRL INCHES
OF SNOW TO FALL ACRS THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
THRU THE OVRNGT IS NOW LOOKING TO BE MEAGER WITH A GNRL INCH OR TWO
ACRS THE BULK OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY 2-4 INCHES IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SUSQUEHANNA REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
315 PM UPDATE...
MOISTURE WL CONTINUE TO WRAP-ARND THE NOR`EASTER THRU THE SHORT
TERM. DEFORMATION BAND FINALLY GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER CURRENTLY
AND WL ROTATE INTO THE FINGER LKS BY MORNING. ADDED MOISTURE OFF
OF THE LKS WL LKLY BRING 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW ACRS FINGER LKS AND
SUSQUEHANNA REGION DRG THE DAY WED THO AMNTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER, THUS HV OPTED TO KEEP WARNINGS GOING FOR CNTRL NY.
SYSTEM WL BCM VERTICALLY STACKED DRG THE DAY TOMORROW AND WITH NW
FLOW MVG DOWN ACRS THE LKS EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.
ONLY QUESTION WL BE IS IF DRY SLOT WL MV IN FM THE EAST AND
DENDRITE ZONE WL LOSE MOISTURE DRG THE AFTN HRS BUT WL ALLOW
LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON DROPPING HEADLINES EARLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WOBBLING AROUND OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA
IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR PERIODS OF SNOW WRAPPING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS NY AND
FAR NORTHERN PA WITH HIGH CHANCE DONE AROUND I-80 FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND -6 TO -8 WITH
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE NNW FLOW. THIS PATTERN IS
USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS
OUR AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS NY STATE WITH MANY AREAS PROBABLY STILL
GETTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW.
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT
SCATTERED SNOW SHWOERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THIS EVE BUT STILL A SHARP EDGE NEAR SYR AND
ITH. ELM STILL DRY BUT HAS MVFR CIGS. PRECIP EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SLOWLY NW TO ITH AND ELM THIS EVE. SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND WED EVERYWHERE.
ITH/BGM HAVE IFR CIGS. BGM NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS. THESE IFR CIGS WILL
REMAIN WHILE VSBYS DROP TO IFR IN SNOW. WITH THE NW FLOW ADDING
CAYUGA LAKE MOISTURE SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL.
SYR/RME WILL DROP TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW 4 TO
5Z. WITH STEADY SNOW THROUGH WED IFR WILL CONTINUE.
ELM WILL HAVE SNOW BY 4Z WITH IFR VSBYS AND LOW END MVFR CIGS.
SOME IMPROVEMENT WED MORNING TO MVFR WITH THE STEADIER SNOW TO THE
NORTH.
AVP WILL ALSO DROP TO IFR CIG/VSBY IN SNOW ALSO STARTING AROUND
4Z. AGAIN SOME IMPROVEMENT WED MORN TO MVFR.
NW WINDS AT 10 KTS THIS EVENING INCREASING LATE TONIGHT TO 10 TO
15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH WED.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT/THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHSN. BETTER CHC IN NY.
SAT/SUN...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-023-025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ022-024-
062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF/PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...DJP/MSE
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
647 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY SLOWLY MOVING NOR EASTER WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
REGION. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
0645 PM UPDATE...
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS STILL
STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT WEST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AT THIS HOUR SO
WITH THIS UPDATE WE REDUCED POPS, QPF, AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA FOR THIS EVENING AS BANDING WILL BE
WEAKENING BY THE TIME PRECIP MOVES IN.
IN TERMS OF P-TYPE, THE LOWER LEVELS ARE FINALLY
COOLING WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. AS WARMER AIR IS WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR AREAS FARTHER NORTH, PRECIP IS STILL FALLING AS RAIN AROUND
ROME AND SYRACUSE. WE EXPECT THE OVERALL TREND TO BE A CHANGE TO
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE STORM TOTAL GRIDS WERE RERUN BASED ON THESE
LATEST UPDATES AND FOR MOST AREAS THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES. DUE
TO THE SLOWER CHANGE OVER AND SLOWER WESTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP,
AMOUNTS WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR LUZERNE AND STEUBEN COUNTIES.
1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES HAS DROPPED DOWN TO NR 1000MB AS IT SPINS OFF THE JERSEY
SHORE. MODERATE TO HVY PCPN IS ONGOING ACRS ERN HALF OF CWA AS
EXPECTED BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES ARE STILL RIGHT AT OR BLO FRZG AS OF 17Z WITH -FZRA
FALLING AT THESE LOCATIONS AND HEARING ABOUT NUMEROUS MOTOR VEHICLE
ACCIDENTS.
PCPN HAS ESSENTIALLY HIT A BRICK WALL AT THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO MV MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS
NOW UNTIL AFT 00Z. DEFORMATION BAND THAT THE MODELS WERE INSISTENT
WUD ROTATE WEST THRU THE EVNG HRS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE A FRACTURED
BAND OF MIXED PCPN.
H9 TEMPS PER LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATING BLYR TEMPS RMNG ISOTHERMAL
THRU 21Z THIS AFTN AND VRY SLOWLY DROPPING BYND THIS TIME. EXPECT A
MIXED BAG THRU BULK OF THE OVRNGT FOR SXNS EAST OF I-81 WITH CLD AIR
BEING PULLED IN FM THE WEST. ANOTHER WV FCST TO MV THRU NRN ZONES
AFT 06Z TONIGHT AND WITH MOISTURE FM LK ADDED IN EXPECT SVRL INCHES
OF SNOW TO FALL ACRS THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
THRU THE OVRNGT IS NOW LOOKING TO BE MEAGER WITH A GNRL INCH OR TWO
ACRS THE BULK OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY 2-4 INCHES IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SUSQUEHANNA REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
315 PM UPDATE...
MOISTURE WL CONTINUE TO WRAP-ARND THE NOR`EASTER THRU THE SHORT
TERM. DEFORMATION BAND FINALLY GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER CURRENTLY
AND WL ROTATE INTO THE FINGER LKS BY MORNING. ADDED MOISTURE OFF
OF THE LKS WL LKLY BRING 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW ACRS FINGER LKS AND
SUSQUEHANNA REGION DRG THE DAY WED THO AMNTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER, THUS HV OPTED TO KEEP WARNINGS GOING FOR CNTRL NY.
SYSTEM WL BCM VERTICALLY STACKED DRG THE DAY TOMORROW AND WITH NW
FLOW MVG DOWN ACRS THE LKS EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.
ONLY QUESTION WL BE IS IF DRY SLOT WL MV IN FM THE EAST AND
DENDRITE ZONE WL LOSE MOISTURE DRG THE AFTN HRS BUT WL ALLOW
LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON DROPPING HEADLINES EARLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WOBBLING AROUND OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA
IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR PERIODS OF SNOW WRAPPING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS NY AND
FAR NORTHERN PA WITH HIGH CHANCE DONE AROUND I-80 FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND -6 TO -8 WITH
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE NNW FLOW. THIS PATTERN IS
USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS
OUR AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS NY STATE WITH MANY AREAS PROBABLY STILL
GETTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW.
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT
SCATTERED SNOW SHWOERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE EAST COAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CIGS
WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR ESPECIALLY ON HILL TOP
AIRPORTS SUCH AS ITH AND BGM. VSBYS WILL FALL TO IFR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
THEN NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT THROUGH WED...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW OR BLSN. NEAR AIRPORT MINS AT
TIMES IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW TUE NGT-EARLY WED.
THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHSN. BETTER CHC IN NY.
SAT...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-023-025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ022-024-
062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF/PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...DJP/MSE
AVIATION...DJP/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
315 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD. SOME VERY WEAK WAA AND PVA WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO BREAK OUT...CURRENTLY OVER FAR SWRN ZONES...AND THEN
BLOSSOMING AREA-WIDE AFTER SUNSET. 12ZWRF AND HRRR SEEM FAIRLY
WELL INITIALIZED AND WERE FOLLOWED RATHER CLOSELY. THESE MODELS
MAY JUST BE A TAD TOO FAST AND HIGH IN QPF SINCE THE COLUMN HAS
BEEN SLOW TO SATURATE...NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE VERY DRY MID
LEVEL AIR SHOWING UP IN THIS MORNINGS RAOBS. LATTER PART OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A QUICK DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS AS THE WEDGE
ERODES...TAKING AWAY THE LAYER TO BE OVERRUN...AND THE WEAK
UPGLIDE SHUTS OFF. A LAST-MINUTE GLANCE AT THE 18Z WRF SEEMS TO
IMPLY THAT THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS TROUBLE GETTING MUCH EAST
INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION...POSSIBLY LOSING THE SATURATION BATTLE
TO THOSE AREAS WHERE IT GOT A BIT WARMER TODAY LEADING TO LOWER RH
VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BUT A SECOND STRONG
DISTURBANCE SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY EVENING. THE STRONG CYCLONICALLY
CURVED UPPER PATTERN IS PROBABLY ONE WE SHOULD GET USED TO IF
RECENT WINTER OUTLOOKS ARE TO BE BELIEVED.
NW SURFACE WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY
MORNING WILL DRAIN THE OLD WEDGE AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE SHOULD BE NO SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT REMAINING BUT
THE DEPTH OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS (2500-3000 FT) IS SUFFICIENT FOR
AREAS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING. A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 50.
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED...THERE IS A LOT OF
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL TO -26C TO -28C.
ISENTROPIC FIELDS ARE NEUTRAL BUT Q-VECTORS INDICATE DYNAMIC
PROCESSES WILL ATTEMPT TO SQUEEZE A LITTLE PRECIPITATION OUT GIVEN
ANY OPPORTUNITY...ESPECIALLY FROM COASTAL SC EASTWARD OFFSHORE.
FOR THIS REASON I HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST
ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
OFFSHORE. ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS AND VORTICITY ADVECTION
GOES NEGATIVE...DOWNWARD MOTION SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT CLOUDS.
DEEP NW FLOW AND A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING DOWN FROM ALOFT
SHOULD GIVEN US SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MID 50S WITH LOWS WED NIGHT NEAR FREEZING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH REGARDS TO A DRY
AND COOL FORECAST UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK ALOFT. A COUPLE OF WEAKER
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WILL ONLY SERVE TO REINFORCE THE ANTECEDENT COLD AIR AND KICK UP
WINDS A BIT. THESE TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE MASSIVE
STACKED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE NICER WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERS OVERHEAD. WITH
BASICALLY NO WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT...AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL BE THE PRIMARY
DRIVER OF WARMER TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH 60S SLOWLY ENTERING THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SAME PROGRESSION WITH LOWS ALBEIT WITH A LOWER RANGE. NEAR
FREEZING FRIDAY MORNING WARMING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY
AM. NO POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THIS AFTERNOON TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH 3-5K CIGS AT
KMYR/KFLO AND 6-8K CIGS OR BETTER AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS INCREASING AND STREAMING N FROM SW OF KMYR TO KFLO.
MOST OF THIS IS PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND ATTM BUT COINCIDES
WITH LOWEST CIGS. WINDS ARE N-NE 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL 20K GUSTS
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
AS A UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING TERMINALS. THE RAIN WILL SATURATE THE
LOW LEVELS AND CAUSE MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING...FROM KMYR TO KFLO. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH MVFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP BUT THE TIMING OF THE ONSET IS LOW. WITH A COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME SATURATED
AND BR/IFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING. RAIN WILL
END FROM WSW TO ENE OVERNIGHT BUT LOW CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
SUNRISE. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AS NW DOWNSLOPE
WINDS BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS TUESDAY MORNING BECOMING VFR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
DURATION OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A WELL OFFSHORE LOW
WORKING IN TANDEM TO KEEP STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT THE WEDGE WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AND THE LOW RETROGRADES
TOWARDS CAPE HATTERAS BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH. WIND WILL BACK IN
DIRECTION WHILE WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX IN RESPONSE TO THE GRADIENT
EASING...BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH FOR SUB-ADVISORY WIND OR WAVES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD MOVE NORTH TO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID-WEEK. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...STRONGEST TUESDAY MORNING
AND SURGING AGAIN TOWARD 20 KNOTS TUESDAY EVENING AS A POOL OF
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS
LOCALLY AND ALSO STORMINESS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
MORE BACKSWELL IMPACTING OUR WATERS. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SC
WATERS AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE NC WATERS. SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE WITH LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATING
AN IMPRESSIVE 12-13 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL FEEDING INTO THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SEE
MARKEDLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...NORTHWEST FOR THE MOST PART
AROUND TEN KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET DUE PRIMARILY TO A WEAK WIND
WAVE AND A SLIGHTLY MORE SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY SWELL COMPONENT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...FBB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...FBB/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1241 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY ALONG A STALLED FRONT
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING COOL WEATHER MONDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THE 18 UTC NAM IS
SHOWING THIS IN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BEING SUPPORTED BY A 90% RH
LAYER OF MOISTURE MOVING INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS AT 850 MB
VEERING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S BUT INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WILL TEMPER THE TEMPERATURES DECREASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY...TURNING NEGATIVELY TILTED AT 500 MB AS MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH
SHOULD INDUCE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ABOUT
400 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD BY THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE NC OUTER
BANKS. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 3000-6000 FEET WILL BE
FORCED TO ASCEND AS THEY RIDE UP OVER A COOL WEDGE AIR MASS INLAND
AND THIS SHOULD DEVELOP PATCHES OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION
AND SAND HILLS WHERE THE 285K ISENTROPIC SURFACE HAS THE MOST
RELATIVE TILT. THE MAGNITUDE OF 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT MATCHES
EXPECTED COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR
RAINFALL EVENT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE OUR PREFERRED MODEL ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS
WASN`T TOO BAD. THE 12Z NAM WAS NOT USED. GIVEN DENSE CLOUD COVER
AND THE WEDGE PATTERN MY FORECAST HIGHS ARE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS
NE SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE LUMBERTON AREA MONDAY: MID 40S INLAND
TO 50-51 AT THE COAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MID-UPPER 30S.
TUESDAY...DEEP WEST AND NW WINDS SHOULD DRY THE COLUMN OUT WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER-MID 50S AND LOWS MID-UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG OMEGA BLOCK WILL DEVELOP AT THE MID
LEVELS WITH THE FIRST VESTIGES SEEN THURSDAY. A POTENT MID LEVEL LOW
WILL BE MEANDERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES WITH A DEEP LONG WAVE
TROUGH CRASHING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST. RIDGING WILL BE TAKING PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED IN
TIME. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FLOW/PATTERN IS STILL INTACT
BUT DOES SHOW SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING EAST.
THE SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE INCLUDE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
CYCLONIC/COLD AND DRY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS...THESE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKER MID LEVEL FEATURES. BY LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. NO POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS A REASONABLE TREND WITH COLD READINGS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW TO MIDDLE 50S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS AT
OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. THE COLDEST MORNING APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY
WITH LINGERING COLD AIR UPSTAIRS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WARM THINGS UP FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...TEMPO MVFR CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD LATER THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
AND THEN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
RISK FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE
AND THEN ENDINIG FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...A MARGINAL GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR N
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT INTO TONIGHT AS GUSTS ARE STILL AROUND THE 35
KT LEVEL AT 41013. THE 00 UTC RUN OF THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT OVERNIGHT AND IS MAINTAINING THE 25 TO 30
KT WINDS WITH HIGHER GUST OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 7
FT...WITH HIGHER SEAS AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST AND IN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH. LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED NEARER THE COAST WHERE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
OFFSHORE...MAINLY BETWEEN BALD HEAD AND NORTH MYRTLE BEACH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...1045 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES MONDAY MORNING WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DIFFER IN DETAILS ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE LOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TURNING NORTHWARD BEFORE REACHING LAND
OVERNIGHT. FOR OUR PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS THIS MEANS A
CONTINUATION OF BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
ALBEIT WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DUE TO LESSENING
INFLUENCE FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH.
AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY...OUR WINDS
SHOULD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO BUILD OFFSHORE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...EXPECT STEADY STATE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2-5
FEET WITH THE FIVE FOOTERS RELEGATED TO THE OUTERMOST WATERS. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY THURSDAY TO KICK UP WINDS A
COUPLE OF KNOTS BRIEFLY. LATER THURSDAY...WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
TEN KNOTS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS DROP TO 1-3
FEET.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STORM SURGE AT MYRTLE BEACH IS APPROACHING
1.0 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. ASTRONOMICAL TIDE PREDICTIONS SHOW WE
WILL NEED 1.6 FEET OF SURGE TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT
MYRTLE BEACH WITH THE MONDAY MORNING (820 AM) HIGH TIDE. NO
COASTAL FLOODING ADVISORIES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL/RJD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
335 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND IF WE GET ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ARE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE SFC LOW HAS BEEN MOVING OFF OF THE ARROWHEAD
OF MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FROM ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE STARTED IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
CWA...WHICH THE RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON. CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND WE SHOULD
BE FAIRLY CLEAR BY MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE SIGNS OF SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMATION...BUT ALONG WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE DRIER AIR AT THE SFC. THINK THAT CHANCES WILL NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR FOG TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
TOMORROW...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SD...BUT
THE COLUMN WILL BE TOO DRY TO DO MUCH AND NONE OF THE MODELS ARE
PRODUCING ANY PRECIP. THE SFC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH A COLD START AND 850MB TEMPS
STILL CLOSE TO ZERO EARLY IN THE DAY...TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 20S
EVEN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SOUTH WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
SFC TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BACK UP
WELL ABOVE ZERO AND SOME CLOSE TO 10 C. THE SPOILER MAY BE IF WE
GET STRATUS COMING BACK UP AND REMAINING OVER THE REGION. THE NAM
WAS EVEN TRYING TO PUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP OUT THURSDAY OVER
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE ANY DRIZZLE MENTION OUT FOR NOW
BUT BUMPED UP CLOUDS A BIT IN THE FAR EAST. HIGHS SHOULD SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...REACHING BACK
TOWARDS THE 30 MARK AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON
THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON 500MB RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NAEFS SHOWS
850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
STARTING EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS REACH
TO 12C TO 16C FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
INSTEAD OF THE SFC WARMING SW OR WEST PLUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
STRATUS LAYER ADVECTING NORTH KEEPING TEMPS COOLER SATURDAY. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND AS CLOUDS WILL MAKE OR BREAK TEMPS...EVEN
WITH LOW SUN ANGLE. UPR 30S TO 40 WITH CLOUDS...WITHOUT MID TO UPR
40S POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FROPA SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT PCPN
CHC TO THE FA AND BRING TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 20S BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
TURNING TO THE NNW WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25MPH. GUSTS TO CONTINUE FOR
2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FROPA THEN WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. CIGS WILL
IMPROVE FROM MFVR TO VFR AS CIGS LIFT AND SCT OUT THIS AFTN INTO THE
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT BJI WHERE MFVR
CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING TOMORROW.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1249 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO
POPULATE THE LATEST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ELEMENTS. ALSO MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. SKIES
CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER A BAND OF
STRATUS REMAINS FROM WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH IS CLEARING OUT THE STRATUS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES NORTH...TEMPERATURES ARE
ACTUALLY FALLING WITH THE LOSS OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION.
UPDATED CLOUD COVER KEEPING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING MOST AREAS
AND CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES NORTH TO RISING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INDICATE OVERCAST SKIES OVER NORTHWESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO
ERODE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD HOLD STEADY THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN COULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE AS CLOUDS BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED
THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO AS A RESULT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 522 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER WEST AND REMOVE PATCHY FOG.
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAS TAKEN A MORE
SOUTHERLY JOG WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WILL PUT MOST
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT WEST
WINDS...REMOVED THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
THE LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOW LAST NIGHT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS
DRAGGING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS IN ITS WAKE. THE STRATUS HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SO FAR. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRATUS WILL EXTEND A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
THIS MORNING BEFORE IT BEGINS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR RUN INDICATES CLOUD COVER COULD ENTER
WILLISTON WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE STRATUS WILL WREAK HAVOC ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING...INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS UNDER THE STRATUS WILL
SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
WHILE AREAS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME REBOUNDING
FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE CLEAR SOUTHWEST
AND TEENS/20S EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY.
OVERALL A RATHER PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AND SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
FOR TUESDAY...A RIDGE-RUNNER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE
NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ELEVATED SNOW SHOWERS...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A DRY THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE UP TO 600MB WILL BE IN
PLACE. THEREFORE...VIRGA WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW FLAKES REACHED THE
SURFACE SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TUESDAY. DUE TO THE STRONG
UPPER FORCING BUT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...HANDLED THIS
SCENARIO WITH SILENT POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH FRIDAY FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE EXTENDED. FRIDAY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE ROCKIES. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE
TROUGH IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND
RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
PERSISTENT STRATUS AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS/KJMS. CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH KMOT CLEARING SOON. REMAINING TAFS CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1004 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH IS CLEARING OUT THE STRATUS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES NORTH...TEMPERATURES ARE
ACTUALLY FALLING WITH THE LOSS OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION.
UPDATED CLOUD COVER KEEPING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING MOST AREAS
AND CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES NORTH TO RISING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INDICATE OVERCAST SKIES OVER NORTHWESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO
ERODE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD HOLD STEADY THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN COULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE AS CLOUDS BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED
THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO AS A RESULT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 522 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER WEST AND REMOVE PATCHY FOG.
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAS TAKEN A MORE
SOUTHERLY JOG WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WILL PUT MOST
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT WEST
WINDS...REMOVED THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
THE LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOW LAST NIGHT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS
DRAGGING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS IN ITS WAKE. THE STRATUS HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SO FAR. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRATUS WILL EXTEND A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
THIS MORNING BEFORE IT BEGINS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR RUN INDICATES CLOUD COVER COULD ENTER
WILLISTON WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE STRATUS WILL WREAK HAVOC ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING...INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS UNDER THE STRATUS WILL
SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
WHILE AREAS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME REBOUNDING
FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE CLEAR SOUTHWEST
AND TEENS/20S EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY.
OVERALL A RATHER PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AND SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
FOR TUESDAY...A RIDGE-RUNNER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE
NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ELEVATED SNOW SHOWERS...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A DRY THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE UP TO 600MB WILL BE IN
PLACE. THEREFORE...VIRGA WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW FLAKES REACHED THE
SURFACE SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TUESDAY. DUE TO THE STRONG
UPPER FORCING BUT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...HANDLED THIS
SCENARIO WITH SILENT POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH FRIDAY FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE EXTENDED. FRIDAY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE ROCKIES. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE
TROUGH IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND
RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PERSISTENT STRATUS AT
KISN/KDIK/KBIS/KJMS. CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH KMOT
CLEARING SOON. REMAINING TAFS CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAS INCREASED
WESTWARD AND NOW ENCOMPASSES KISN AND KDIK. LOW CIGS WILL CLEAR
OUT OF KISN/KDIK LATER THIS MORNING AND KMOT/KBIS/KJMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
641 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INDICATE OVERCAST SKIES OVER NORTHWESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO
ERODE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD HOLD STEADY THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN COULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE AS CLOUDS BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED
THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO AS A RESULT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 522 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER WEST AND REMOVE PATCHY FOG.
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAS TAKEN A MORE
SOUTHERLY JOG WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WILL PUT MOST
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT WEST
WINDS...REMOVED THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
THE LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOW LAST NIGHT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS
DRAGGING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS IN ITS WAKE. THE STRATUS HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SO FAR. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRATUS WILL EXTEND A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
THIS MORNING BEFORE IT BEGINS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR RUN INDICATES CLOUD COVER COULD ENTER
WILLISTON WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE STRATUS WILL WREAK HAVOC ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING...INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS UNDER THE STRATUS WILL
SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
WHILE AREAS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME REBOUNDING
FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE CLEAR SOUTHWEST
AND TEENS/20S EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY.
OVERALL A RATHER PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AND SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
FOR TUESDAY...A RIDGE-RUNNER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE
NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ELEVATED SNOW SHOWERS...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A DRY THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE UP TO 600MB WILL BE IN
PLACE. THEREFORE...VIRGA WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW FLAKES REACHED THE
SURFACE SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TUESDAY. DUE TO THE STRONG
UPPER FORCING BUT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...HANDLED THIS
SCENARIO WITH SILENT POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH FRIDAY FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE EXTENDED. FRIDAY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE ROCKIES. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE
TROUGH IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND
RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PERSISTENT STRATUS
AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS HAS INCREASED WESTWARD AND NOW ENCOMPASSES KISN
AND KDIK. LOW CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT OF KISN/KDIK LATER THIS MORNING
AND KMOT/KBIS/KJMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
522 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER WEST AND REMOVE PATCHY FOG.
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAS TAKEN A MORE
SOUTHERLY JOG WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WILL PUT MOST
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT WEST
WINDS...REMOVED THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
THE LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOW LAST NIGHT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS
DRAGGING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS IN ITS WAKE. THE STRATUS HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SO FAR. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRATUS WILL EXTEND A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
THIS MORNING BEFORE IT BEGINS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR RUN INDICATES CLOUD COVER COULD ENTER
WILLISTON WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE STRATUS WILL WREAK HAVOC ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING...INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS UNDER THE STRATUS WILL
SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
WHILE AREAS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME REBOUNDING
FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE CLEAR SOUTHWEST
AND TEENS/20S EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY.
OVERALL A RATHER PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AND SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
FOR TUESDAY...A RIDGE-RUNNER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE
NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ELEVATED SNOW SHOWERS...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A DRY THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE UP TO 600MB WILL BE IN
PLACE. THEREFORE...VIRGA WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW FLAKES REACHED THE
SURFACE SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TUESDAY. DUE TO THE STRONG
UPPER FORCING BUT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...HANDLED THIS
SCENARIO WITH SILENT POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH FRIDAY FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE EXTENDED. FRIDAY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE ROCKIES. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE
TROUGH IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND
RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PERSISTENT STRATUS
AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS HAS INCREASED WESTWARD AND NOW ENCOMPASS KISN
AND KDIK. LOW CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT OF KISN/KDIK LATER THIS MORNING
AND KMOT/KBIS/KJMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
235 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
THE LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOW LAST NIGHT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS
DRAGGING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS IN ITS WAKE. THE STRATUS HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SO FAR. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRATUS WILL EXTEND A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
THIS MORNING BEFORE IT BEGINS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR RUN INDICATES CLOUD COVER COULD ENTER
WILLISTON WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE STRATUS WILL WREAK HAVOC ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING...INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS UNDER THE STRATUS WILL
SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
WHILE AREAS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME REBOUNDING
FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE CLEAR SOUTHWEST
AND TEENS/20S EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY.
OVERALL A RATHER PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AND SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
FOR TUESDAY...A RIDGE-RUNNER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE
NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ELEVATED SNOW SHOWERS...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A DRY THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE UP TO 600MB WILL BE IN
PLACE. THEREFORE...VIRGA WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW FLAKES REACHED THE
SURFACE SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TUESDAY. DUE TO THE STRONG
UPPER FORCING BUT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...HANDLED THIS
SCENARIO WITH SILENT POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH FRIDAY FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE EXTENDED. FRIDAY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE ROCKIES. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE
TROUGH IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND
RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AT KMOT/KJMS/KBIS. KISN COULD MOVE IN AND OUT OF CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT AS A STRATUS DECK HOVERS NEARBY. KDIK SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...LCL
FG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WIND DIMINISHES.
WITH THE LOW COVERAGE AND STILL SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER IT WILL
DEVELOP HAVE WITHHELD FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL
FORECASTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY
OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
BACK EDGE OF LAST SNOW BAND MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN FA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. FEEL FREEZING RAIN THREAT HAS
ENDED WITH COOLING COLUMN HOWEVER MAY STILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FZDZ AS MID LEVELS DRY OVERNIGHT AND STRATUS HOLDS. MAIN PUSH
OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WORKING THROUGH THE WESTERN FA WHICH
WILL START COOLING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHICH REMAIN
MILD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR PCPN PHASE
POTENTIAL REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW VS ZR AND METARS ACROSS THE NORTH
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO -SN. SECONDARY NARROW DEF ZONE BAND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FA PRIMARILY SNOW ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A
BRIEF MIX. THIS FEATURE MOVING PRETTY QUICK SO NOT EVEN SURE AT
THIS POINT IF WE WILL SEE MEASURABLE PCPN WITH THIS UNLESS IT
EXPANDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED
UNTIL COLUMN COOLS SUFFICIENTLY FOR ONLY SNOW. CURRENTLY A SMALL
AREA OF ENHANCED REFLECTIVITIES ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA
FROM THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO FAR NORTHERN MN. TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES
COOL WITH COLD ADVECTION NOSING IN ROADS COULD BECOME GLAZED. WILL
MONITOR PHASE AND TEMPERATURES AND IF NEEDED WILL ISSUE PROPER
HEADLINES. DID INCREASE POPS THIS AREA OTHERWISE NO REAL BIG
CHANGES AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
MIXED PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN ND SO
THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME BROAD LIFT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FREEZING RAIN OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY HAS FINALLY MOVED OFF TO THE EAST
AND WILL LET THE ADVISORY GO BEFORE IT EXPIRES THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME WEAK PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
MODELS ALL BREAK OUT PERIODIC PRECIP OVER THE CWA AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
EXACTLY WHERE THE PRECIP BREAKS OUT AND TIMING...SO WILL KEEP
MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH SOME HIGHER LATER TONIGHT OVER
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME CONSOLIDATION OF
WRAP AROUND.
AS FAR AS TYPE...TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST ARE JUST BELOW OR ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK. SOME MIXED PRECIP WAS REPORTED IN LANGDON BUT
OTHER AREAS HAVE SEEN ONLY RAIN. THE POWT TOOL GIVES RAIN OVER
MUCH OF THE LOWER DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH SOME IP AND FZRA MIXING
IN CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS
POINT. THE MIXED BAG OF PRECIP WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...BUT WITH ONLY SOME CHANCE OF SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AND WHAT DOES OCCUR VERY LIGHT...WILL KEEP ANY HEADLINES
OUT FOR NOW. THE WARM LAYER ALOFT BEGINS TO BE ERODED AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND PRECIP SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MORNING.
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND
AN INCH OR LESS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A WARM START THIS EVENING AND THE TRUE
COLD AIR SURGE NOT REALLY COMING DOWN UNTIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO 20S. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 20S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WE BEGIN TO
SEE SOME CLEARING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE 500MB HEIGHTS RISE AND CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAIRLY QUIET ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE NAM TRIES TO
BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...BUT IT SEEMS TO BE AN
OUTLIER SO WILL JUST KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR NOW. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME GOOD WARMING ON
WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS NEARING 5 TO 8 C ARRIVE. HIGHS SHOULD BE
BACK UP INTO THE 30S IN MANY AREAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE MILD AND
DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE 30S...AND POSSIBLY
WARMER. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT EAST BY LATE
NEXT WEEKEND AS UPSTREAM ENERGY APPROACHES. HOWEVER...FORECAST
DETAILS LACK CLARITY BY THIS TIME...WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW AND THE EVOLUTION OF
THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
CIGS CONTINUE TO VARY SOME UNDER UPPER LOW NOW MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN MN. IN ITS WAKE MVFR CIGS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW LOW SO FEEL CLOUDS MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD MOST
OF THE DAY. SOME BREAKS SHOULD OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM WEST
TO EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
20 TO 30KTS THROUGH SHALLOW MIXED LAYER.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
950 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE MIDWEST WILL BRING NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND AND
THE HIGH WILL BE MORE FIRMLY SETTLED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TO
SHIFT WINDS IN THE OHIO VALLEY MORE WESTERLY. AS THE LOW EJECTS
NORTHEAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND LATEST RAP ARE
INDICATING THAT THE SURFACE TO 2000 FOOT LAYER WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME LESS AND LESS SATURATED FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK. IN THE LOW LEVEL
CAA PATTERN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT BUT BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM READINGS...THIS APPEARS TO
BE BEING MODIFIED SOMEWHAT BY THE CLOUD COVER. MOST OF THE LATEST
HI RES MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
AROUND INTERSTATE 71 BY ABOUT 6 AM BUT THINK THIS MAY BE A TAD
FAST. AT ANY RATE...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY DIP BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE
DRIZZLE TAPERS OFF. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...DO NOT THINK PCPN
WOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH OR THE THE TIME PERIOD LONG ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN ICING ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LARGER SYNOPTIC
PRESSURE CENTERS SHIFT. COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL SLACKEN AND THE
THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL TURN OFF QUICKLY BEFORE DAYLIGHT
ENDS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 30S WITH LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING
IN THE LOWER 20S. THE NORTHWEST WINDS KEEPING UP SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALLS THAT WOULD OCCUR IF A
RADIATIONAL COOLING PATTERN WERE EVIDENT.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE MIDWEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
ACTUALLY BE WARMING AND PM LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL ONLY DROP TO
THE UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES AND OHIO VALLEY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TO INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE STACKED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
VERY SLOWLY...WITH ITS INFLUENCE STILL BEING FELT AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN OHIO ON FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE EASTWARD /
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL NOT BE FAST (FAILING TO
REALLY CLEAR THE COAST UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK)...THE INFLUENCE OF
TROUGHING WILL DIMINISH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY...ALLOWING
FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL
CENTER OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AT 925MB/850MB IS FORECAST
TO FLOW NORTH IN A CLOCKWISE MANNER AROUND THE RIDGING...BUT IT NOW
APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL NEAR-SURFACE SATURATION (SHALLOW AS IT
MAY BE) COULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATER ON SUNDAY. THIS MAKES FOR A RELATIVELY CALM FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND SOME PERIODS OF SUN
EXPECTED.
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...WITH THE RIDGE MOVING ONLY
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. WITH A STRONGER RIDGE...MODELS HAVE ALSO
SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WHICH IS WHERE ATTENTION WILL TURN FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM THIS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN TEXAS...AND AS ANOTHER
ASSOCIATED ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST...THE MODEL TREND FOR THIS
FEATURE HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK (AS THE LOW
WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND COASTAL
STATES). THE NORTHERN TREND PUTS THE OHIO VALLEY MORE DIRECTLY IN
THE PATH...BUT THE WEAKENING TREND MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LATEST 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS.
WHERE CAUTION IN THE FORECAST SPECIFICS IS ADVISED WOULD BE THE FACT
THAT GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING A WIDE SPREAD IN
STRENGTH/TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH...LEADING TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS BEYOND MONDAY. WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AT AROUND THE SAME
TIME...SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCLUDED. WHENEVER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...THE BRIEF WARM-UP WILL AT LEAST BE
TEMPORARILY HALTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE
WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED WHICH WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
KCVG/KLUK/KILN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH LOW LEVELS
NEAR SATURATION TONIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH SOME DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...CAUSING CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO MVFR
AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OHIO.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N/NW OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY
AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...KURZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
1020 AM PST MON DEC 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A BUSY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK FOR
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON WITH WET AND WINDY WEATHER
AT TIMES. BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A STRONG
PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL ROTATE A SERIES OF INCREASINGLY STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE MAIN
UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS AN
OPEN TROUGH WITH THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO
CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND POSSIBLE FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES FOR THE IMMEDIATE PERIOD WITH THE LEADING
BAND OF WARM PROCESS RAIN EASILY VISIBLE ON THE LANGLEY HILL RADAR.
EXPECT A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN EASTWARD AS THE UPPER JET
BECOMES MORE ALIGNED WITH THE ADVANCING OCCLUDED FRONT. SO IT LOOKS
LIKE MOST INLAND AREAS WILL STAY DRY WITH THE RAIN REACHING THE
NORTH COAST IN EARNEST CLOSER TO NOON. WOULD EXPECT INLAND RAIN TO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH AROUND OR PERHAPS A BIT AFTER THE EVENING
COMMUTE. AMOUNTS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE.
FOG BEGAN LIFTING AROUND DAYBREAK BUT STILL SEE SOME BROADER AREAS
IN PLACE PER WEBCAMS. DON`T EXPECT MUCH IMPACT THOUGH SO CANCELLED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER THIS MORNING.
WIND FORECAST STILL SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC TONIGHT. 15Z HRRR TIMING
GETS TO 06Z/10PM TONIGHT AND STILL DOESN`T QUITE REACH HIGH WIND
CRITERIA AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CONTINUES WEAKLY OFFSHORE FLOW
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BETTER CHANCE FOR HIGHER COASTAL WIND
SPEEDS APPEARS TO BE LATER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EVEN MORE SO AROUND
MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH WIND DIRECTIONS REACHING BETTER VERTICAL
ALIGNMENT AND PROMOTING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR TURBULENT EDDIES TO
REACH LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE. EVEN THEN, THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A
LOWER END EVENT WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS MAYBE UP TO 65 MPH BUT MOST
LIKELY IN THE 55 TO 60 MPH RANGE. TYPICAL FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG
THE HEADLANDS DO SEEM LIKE 65 MPH IS WELL WITHIN REACH. PLAN ON
ADDRESSING THE COASTAL HIGH WIND WATCH AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.
FINALLY...LOOKING AT EXPECTED INCOMING SEAS AND RAINS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS PLUS TIDES NEARING THEIR PEAKS UNDER THE FULL MOON...COULD
LEND TOWARD SOME TIDAL OVERFLOW AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE WILLIPA BAY
SYSTEM. WILL BE ASSESSING FURTHER TODAY AS WELL. /JBONK
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 412 AM PST MON DEC 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS SHOW A POWERFUL JET STREAM SETTING UP ACROSS
THE PACIFIC...WITH WINDS ALREADY 180 KT+ WITHIN THE JET STREAM NEAR
300 MB. THIS POWERFUL JET STREAM WILL GUIDE A SERIES OF STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEMS TOWARD THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK...WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM SLATED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS MORNING THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SOUTH OF SALEM...WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO A FEW
HUNDRED FEET AT TIMES IN PORTIONS OF CORVALLIS AND EUGENE. AREA
WEBCAMS SUGGEST THE DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AT THE MOMENT...
SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM. THE FOG MAY LIFT
AT TIMES DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
BACK TO THE ACTIVE PACIFIC STORM TRACK...MODELS ARE VARYING ON THE
DETAILS BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST TWO DISTINCT
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE ONSHORE THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM
IS TAKING SHAPE NEAR 135W AND WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING MAINLY ON THE COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL AS THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS OUT
FOR THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS WITH A STORM WATCH OUT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS...AS THE 00Z/06Z NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WINDS 60-70
KT+ DEVELOPING AS LOW AS 950 MB BY THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTS 60-70 MPH FOR THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...BUT
WITH GRADIENTS HIGHLY OFFSHORE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THESE WINDS
TO MATERIALIZE ON LAND. THE FIRST STAGES OF THIS EVENT ARE STARTING
TO FALL WITHIN THE WINDOW OF HRRR GUIDANCE...AND HRRR 10M WINDS ARE
FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE AS THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY THIS
EVENING...SO WE OPTED TO KEEP THE HIGH WIND WATCH A WATCH FOR THE
TIME BEING. CONFIDENCE IN STRONG COASTAL WIND INCREASES WITH THE
SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 70 KT
WINDS DOWN TO 950 MB AND GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHERLY. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF OUR WINDIER BEACHES/HEADLANDS SITES GUST
TO 75 MPH EARLY TUE...BUT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN 55 MPH OR LESS FOR THE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WITH THIS FRONT AS WELL.
THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL DUMP A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN ON
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE WILLAPA HILLS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER IT DOES
NOT APPEAR LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
OF COASTAL DRAINAGES. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE GRAYS...AS IT TENDS TO
BE FAST-RESPONDING...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR ENOUGH FOR
THE GRAYS RIVER TO FLOOD EITHER. WITH SEAS APPROACHING 20 FEET OR
HIGHER DEVELOPING NEAR THE MOUTH OF WILLAPA BAY...HEAVY RAIN IN THE
WILLAPA HILLS...AND TIDES RUNNING HIGH DUE TO THE RECENT FULL
MOON...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF TIDAL OVERFLOW IN LOW-LYING AREAS
SURROUNDING WILLAPA BAY SUCH AS RAYMOND.
A DECENT PERIOD OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY...AND 06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THROUGHOUT OUR CWA. NAM LIFTED INDICES GET
AS LOW AS -2 TO -4 DEG C WITH 500-750 J/KG OF CAPE...ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SUSPECT THIS IS ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE THE ABILITY TO MIX STRONG WINDS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...EVEN INLAND.
DUE TO THE VERY FAST AND DYNAMIC PACIFIC JET STREAM...DETAILS BEYOND
TUESDAY RAPIDLY BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN. BROAD PARENT LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST TOWARD BRITISH
COLUMBIA...PUSHING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND STRONGEST PORTION OF THE
JET STREAM CLOSER TO U.S. WEST COAST. THESE FACTORS COMING TOGETHER
COULD BE A POWDER KEG FOR STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP JUST
OFFSHORE SOMETIME WED/EARLY THU...OR NOT. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE VARIED
WILDLY ON WHERE AND WHEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND HOW THEY WILL TRACK. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 00Z GFS
AND GEM BOTH DEVELOPED A SUB-980 MB LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST LATE
WED...TRACKING IT UP THE COAST THROUGH ASTORIA FOR WHAT WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SOUTH WIND EVENT FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. HOWEVER THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW LITTLE
TO NO SIGN OF THIS. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND PROBABLY THE COAST RANGE AS WELL
MIDWEEK...WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL.
JUST HOW STRONG IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY WET...BUT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE TRACKS OF ANY LOWS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE AS IT DRIFTS ONSHORE WED/THU. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF DEVELOPING LOWS COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
VERY HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST RANGE. THERE SEEMS TO BE DECENT MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AND ITS FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAIN
SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
TAPER TO SHOWERS AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND STARTS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE PAC NW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL AIR MASS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY LOWERING THE SNOW LEVEL BACK TO THE CASCADE
PASSES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAGLE
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTER A STORMY WEEK IT APPEARS
DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND AS THERE IS GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE PAC NW. FRIDAY
COULD STILL BE SEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY AS THE WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE PAC NW...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR THE
CASCADE PASSES. IF UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT VALLEY INVERSIONS WITH FOG BECOMING MORE
PERSISTENT FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAGLE
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING THE WATERS. EXPECT THE
STRENGTHENING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH
SEAS APPROACHING 20 FT BY THIS EVENING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUE. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT...LIFTING IT BACK
AND FORTH TO THE N AND S. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY S WINDS AND
STEADILY INCREASING SEAS. THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES LATER THIS
EVENING...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY STORM FORCE
WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL JET MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE UPGRADED THE STORM WATCH TO A
STORM WARNING GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH HIGHER WIND THREAT.
SEAS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PEAK LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
(BEFORE SUNRISE) AROUND 25 FT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS ON TAP FOR TUE...WITH MORE STRONG SOUTHERLY
GALES AND SEAS BUILDING HIGHER STILL. THE STRONGEST SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON WED...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. THE
SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY MODELED. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE GET HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS SOMEWHERE ON
THE OREGON WATERS LATER WED AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY IN A COASTAL
JET. SEAS WILL BUILD FURTHER...PEAKING AROUND 30 FT WED. BOWEN/27
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON PST TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL NOON
PST TUESDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
412 AM PST MON DEC 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A BUSY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK FOR
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...WITH WET AND WINDY
WEATHER AT TIMES. BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A
STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL ROTATE A SERIES OF INCREASINGLY STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE MAIN
UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS AN
OPEN TROUGH...WITH THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO
CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A DRYING TREND POSSIBLE FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS SHOW A POWERFUL JET STREAM SETTING UP ACROSS
THE PACIFIC...WITH WINDS ALREADY 180 KT+ WITHIN THE JET STREAM NEAR
300 MB. THIS POWERFUL JET STREAM WILL GUIDE A SERIES OF STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEMS TOWARD THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK...WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM SLATED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS MORNING THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SOUTH OF SALEM...WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO A FEW
HUNDRED FEET AT TIMES IN PORTIONS OF CORVALLIS AND EUGENE. AREA
WEBCAMS SUGGEST THE DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AT THE MOMENT...
SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM. THE FOG MAY LIFT
AT TIMES DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
BACK TO THE ACTIVE PACIFIC STORM TRACK...MODELS ARE VARYING ON THE
DETAILS BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST TWO DISTINCT
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE ONSHORE THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM
IS TAKING SHAPE NEAR 135W AND WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING MAINLY ON THE COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL AS THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS OUT
FOR THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS WITH A STORM WATCH OUT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS...AS THE 00Z/06Z NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WINDS 60-70
KT+ DEVELOPING AS LOW AS 950 MB BY THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTS 60-70 MPH FOR THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...BUT
WITH GRADIENTS HIGHLY OFFSHORE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THESE WINDS
TO MATERIALIZE ON LAND. THE FIRST STAGES OF THIS EVENT ARE STARTING
TO FALL WITHIN THE WINDOW OF HRRR GUIDANCE...AND HRRR 10M WINDS ARE
FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE AS THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY THIS
EVENING...SO WE OPTED TO KEEP THE HIGH WIND WATCH A WATCH FOR THE
TIME BEING. CONFIDENCE IN STRONG COASTAL WIND INCREASES WITH THE
SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 70 KT
WINDS DOWN TO 950 MB AND GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHERLY. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF OUR WINDIER BEACHES/HEADLANDS SITES GUST
TO 75 MPH EARLY TUE...BUT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN 55 MPH OR LESS FOR THE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WITH THIS FRONT AS WELL.
THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL DUMP A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN ON
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE WILLAPA HILLS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER IT DOES
NOT APPEAR LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
OF COASTAL DRAINAGES. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE GRAYS...AS IT TENDS TO
BE FAST-RESPONDING...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR ENOUGH FOR
THE GRAYS RIVER TO FLOOD EITHER. WITH SEAS APPROACHING 20 FEET OR
HIGHER DEVELOPING NEAR THE MOUTH OF WILLAPA BAY...HEAVY RAIN IN THE
WILLAPA HILLS...AND TIDES RUNNING HIGH DUE TO THE RECENT FULL
MOON...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF TIDAL OVERFLOW IN LOW-LYING AREAS
SURROUNDING WILLAPA BAY SUCH AS RAYMOND.
A DECENT PERIOD OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY...AND 06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THROUGHOUT OUR CWA. NAM LIFTED INDICES GET
AS LOW AS -2 TO -4 DEG C WITH 500-750 J/KG OF CAPE...ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SUSPECT THIS IS ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE THE ABILITY TO MIX STRONG WINDS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...EVEN INLAND.
DUE TO THE VERY FAST AND DYNAMIC PACIFIC JET STREAM...DETAILS BEYOND
TUESDAY RAPIDLY BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN. BROAD PARENT LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST TOWARD BRITISH
COLUMBIA...PUSHING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND STRONGEST PORTION OF THE
JET STREAM CLOSER TO U.S. WEST COAST. THESE FACTORS COMING TOGETHER
COULD BE A POWDER KEG FOR STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP JUST
OFFSHORE SOMETIME WED/EARLY THU...OR NOT. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE VARIED
WILDLY ON WHERE AND WHEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND HOW THEY WILL TRACK. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 00Z GFS
AND GEM BOTH DEVELOPED A SUB-980 MB LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST LATE
WED...TRACKING IT UP THE COAST THROUGH ASTORIA FOR WHAT WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SOUTH WIND EVENT FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. HOWEVER THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW LITTLE
TO NO SIGN OF THIS. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND PROBABLY THE COAST RANGE AS WELL
MIDWEEK...WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL.
JUST HOW STRONG IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY WET...BUT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE TRACKS OF ANY LOWS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE AS IT DRIFTS ONSHORE WED/THU. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF DEVELOPING LOWS COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
VERY HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST RANGE. THERE SEEMS TO BE DECENT MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AND ITS FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAIN
SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
TAPER TO SHOWERS AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND STARTS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE PAC NW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL AIR MASS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY LOWERING THE SNOW LEVEL BACK TO THE CASCADE
PASSES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTER A STORMY WEEK IT APPEARS
DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND AS THERE IS GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE PAC NW. FRIDAY
COULD STILL BE SEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY AS THE WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE PAC NW...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR THE
CASCADE PASSES. IF UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT VALLEY INVERSIONS WITH FOG BECOMING MORE
PERSISTENT FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT. COULD SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL FOG FORMATION IN THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY BEFORE
SUNRISE AS HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR THAT AREA AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL GO
OSCILLATE BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY AS
BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. FOG SHOULD
CLEAR FOR GOOD BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.
AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BEGIN FALLING AT
THE COASTAL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO LOW
VFR OR HIGH MVFR. THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN TO THE INLAND TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUES MORNING...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR.
OFFSHORE WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 KT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS
AROUND THE WEST END OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...INCLUDING
KTTD...THROUGH MON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO PICK UP
ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
FRONT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z
TUE WITH SMALL POSSIBILITY OF IFR FOG AND/OR STRATUS WEST OF KTTD AS
HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 25 TO
35 KT AROUND THE WEST END OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH MON.
BOWEN/PYLE
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE INCREASING THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING THE WATERS. EXPECT THE
STRENGTHENING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH
SEAS APPROACHING 20 FT BY THIS EVENING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE OVER THE REGION FOR MON NIGHT AND
TUE. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT...LIFTING
IT BACK AND FORTH TO THE N AND S. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY S
WINDS AND STEADILY INCREASING SEAS. THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES LATER
MON...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORM WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL JET MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A STORM WATCH FOR THIS POTENTIAL. SEAS LOOK
LIKE THEY`LL PEAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (BEFORE
SUNRISE) AROUND 25 FT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS ON TAP FOR TUE...WITH MORE STRONG SOUTHERLY
GALES AND SEAS BUILDING HIGHER STILL. THE STRONGEST SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON WED...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY. THE SYSTEM HAS
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY MODELED. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE GET HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS SOMEWHERE ON THE
OREGON WATERS LATER WED AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY IN A COASTAL JET.
SEAS WILL BUILD FURTHER...PEAKING AROUND 30 FT WED. BOWEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS
MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
PST TUESDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
248 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE STATUS OF THE LOW
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAD BEEN SPREADING SOUTH OVER THE AREA. THAT
SPREAD HAS DONE A NEAR HALT AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTION RUNS INTO THE
HEATED AIR NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. IT SEEMS WITH THE START OF
EARLY EVENING COOLING THAT THE DECK WOULD AGAIN START SPREADING
SOUTH. CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS SOUTH
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND WAS STARTING TO GET INTO FAR NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AT 20Z. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP SUGGEST THE 925 MB FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO GO STRAIGHT NORTHERLY AND CONTINUE THUS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 06Z/MIDNIGHT...THOUGH DECREASING SLOWLY DURING THE
EVENING. EXPECT THIS WILL GIVE THE DRYING CONTINUED TRANSPORT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND NOT ALLOW THE SOLID
CLOUD COVER TO GET ALL THE WAY TO THE RIVER...OR OF IT BRIEFLY
DOES...IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT AGAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY. AM PLANNING FOR A
LITTLE INCREASE IN THE LOW CLOUDS THERE BUT WITH THE WARM AIR
THERE CURRENTLY AND DRYING FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING...HAVE KEPT THE INCREASE VERY MODEST BEFORE IT CLEARS OUT
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL STEADILY TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING AND
DROPOFF IN WINDS...WITH LOWS BEING REACH ABOUT SUNRISE AT 8 AM.
WINDS BY THEN SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH WITH A 5 TO 5 MPH
NORTHERLY BREEZE IN THE EAST LINGERING TO SUNUP.
TUESDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DRIFTING INTO THE AREA. HAVE GONE PRETTY
CONSERVATIVE IN CLOUD COVER AND IF THEY HIGHER CLOUDS ARE THICK
ENOUGH IT COULD GET MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR PART OF THE DAY. IN ANY EVENT
HEATING BY THE DECEMBER SUN WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
MUCH OF THE WARMING UPSTAIRS EVEN WITH NO SNOW COVER...AND FORECAST
HIGHS WILL REMAIN AROUND 30 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THOUGH...WITH THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE BREEZE PICKING TO 10 PLUS IN THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY WARM AND MOSTLY
DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A MINOR SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS WAVE...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS AND VIRGA POSSIBLE
GIVEN DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
THE WARMUP BEGINS TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. AS LOW LVL TEMPERATURES BUILD...SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO VEER SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. WARM AIR WILL BE SLOW TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT NEAR 40 READINGS SHOULD BE
ATTAINABLE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK TO BE VERY WARM AS DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PULLS BOTH MOISTURE AND WARM AIR OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY WARM EACH AFTERNOON...WITH THE 40S LIKELY ON
THURSDAY AND 40S AND 50S ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT FALL VERY
FALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND CURRENT LOWS MAY STILL BE
TOO LOW. THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSTANCIAL MOISTURE SHOULD
NOT ALLOW FOR ANY EXTREME JUMP ON SATURDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WARMING
INTO THE MID 50S AND POTENTIALLY EVEN DRIZZLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR THEIR SEASONAL NORMALS. THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH CONTINUE TO
BE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014
FREQUENT CEILINGS 2-3K FEET MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A 9V9/YKN/SUX LINE
WITH GENERALLY VFR TO THE SW. THE LOW CEILINGS WILL DECREASE FROM
08/22Z TO 09/03Z WITH VFR FROM 09/03Z-18Z. NO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
259 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX AND ALONG THE
RED RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED BEFORE SUNSET. THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD NIGHT FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH FOG FORMATION BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE. EXPECT THE FOG WILL BURN OFF IN
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...THE REST OF
TUESDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL BE AFFECTING
THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD WHILE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO SPREADS EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT A
RETURN OF CLOUDY SKIES AND A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. THUS...A LITTLE MORE SUN...WARMER HIGHS AND AN
INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING THAT A STRONG UPPER
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE OUR FIRST GOOD RAIN EVENT OF DECEMBER. ALL
MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS A CORE THAT IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN THE GFS DURING ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE STATE.
AS IT COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY MORNING...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN WEST TEXAS WITH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING ALONG I-20 AND INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY MONDAY EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THIS WILL BE THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR STRONG
CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DO JUSTIFY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE SYSTEM
WAS NOT VERTICALLY STACK MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...THEN DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THERE COULD BE
SOME WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. 75
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR MVFR STRATUS AND
THEN FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER
CONCERNS.
17Z AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SATURATED LAYER JUST A FEW HUNDRED
FEET THICK WITHIN THE MVFR STRATUS DECK IN PLACE OVER THE DFW
AREA. THE ONLY REASON THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING AROUND SO LONG
WITHIN THIS THIN LAYER OF SATURATION IS BECAUSE THESE CLOUDS WERE
FOUND WITHIN A STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THIS INVERSION IS VERY
STABLE...AND AS A RESULT IS DAMPENING VERTICAL MOTIONS/MIXING THAT
WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE MIXED DRY AIR THROUGH THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS BY
NOW. AT ANY RATE...THESE CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THIS IS
FINALLY STARTING TO TAKE PLACE. EXPECT THAT MOST DFW AREA SITES
WILL SEE STRATUS SCATTER OUT AROUND 19Z...BECOMING CLEAR AT THE
LOW-LEVELS AFTER 21Z.
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT AND NORTHERLY OVER ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH SUNSET.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP...DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL SET UP AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. NAM...RAP...AND HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL
SEEM TO CAPTURE THIS ENVIRONMENT WELL...AND ADVERTISE A GOOD
CHANCE OF RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND
PLACED 1-2 SM VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN ALL AREA TAFS FROM 10 TO
15Z TOMORROW MORNING AS A RESULT.
THE UPS RADIATIONAL FOG FORECAST/DETECTION METHOD STRONGLY
SUPPORTS FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. ONCE WE SEE HOW DEW POINTS
RESPOND AFTER CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAY HAVE TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES FURTHER IF THE CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE (THE
TEMPERATURE DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD OF THE DAY) IS AS HIGH
AS MODELS ARE ADVERTISING. CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 42 66 44 63 48 / 0 0 5 5 5
WACO, TX 39 65 42 64 48 / 0 0 5 5 10
PARIS, TX 40 64 38 57 41 / 0 0 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 39 64 41 62 47 / 0 0 5 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 38 64 40 61 45 / 0 0 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 43 65 44 62 48 / 0 0 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 41 66 42 61 45 / 0 0 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 42 67 43 63 46 / 0 0 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 41 67 44 64 49 / 0 0 5 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 39 65 42 64 49 / 0 0 5 5 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/75
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1234 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR MVFR STRATUS AND
THEN FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER
CONCERNS.
17Z AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SATURATED LAYER JUST A FEW HUNDRED
FEET THICK WITHIN THE MVFR STRATUS DECK IN PLACE OVER THE DFW
AREA. THE ONLY REASON THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING AROUND SO LONG
WITHIN THIS THIN LAYER OF SATURATION IS BECAUSE THESE CLOUDS WERE
FOUND WITHIN A STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THIS INVERSION IS VERY
STABLE...AND AS A RESULT IS DAMPENING VERTICAL MOTIONS/MIXING THAT
WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE MIXED DRY AIR THROUGH THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS BY
NOW. AT ANY RATE...THESE CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THIS IS
FINALLY STARTING TO TAKE PLACE. EXPECT THAT MOST DFW AREA SITES
WILL SEE STRATUS SCATTER OUT AROUND 19Z...BECOMING CLEAR AT THE
LOW-LEVELS AFTER 21Z.
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT AND NORTHERLY OVER ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH SUNSET.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP...DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL SET UP AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. NAM...RAP...AND HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL
SEEM TO CAPTURE THIS ENVIRONMENT WELL...AND ADVERTISE A GOOD
CHANCE OF RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND
PLACED 1-2 SM VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN ALL AREA TAFS FROM 10 TO
15Z TOMORROW MORNING AS A RESULT.
THE UPS RADIATIONAL FOG FORECAST/DETECTION METHOD STRONGLY
SUPPORTS FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. ONCE WE SEE HOW DEW POINTS
RESPOND AFTER CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAY HAVE TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES FURTHER IF THE CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE (THE
TEMPERATURE DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD OF THE DAY) IS AS HIGH
AS MODELS ARE ADVERTISING.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.UPDATE...
WILL BE ISSUING A QUICK MIDDAY UPDATE TO EXTEND THE CLOUD
COVER INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-35/I-35W CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX. THESE CLOUDS
WILL ALSO AFFECT EARLY AFTERNOON WARMING AND RESULTING HIGHS. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND NORTHWEST OF FORT
WORTH MIGHT REMAIN UNDER THICK CLOUDS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR
SUNSET. THE EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG AROUND COMANCHE AND
STEPHENVILLE HAS THINNED WITH VISIBILITY BETTER THAN 2 MILES AT
11 AM. 75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014/
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ARE EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM HEADS FOR THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...SHALLOW MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER NORTH TEXAS...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S /WITH A
FEW UPPER 30S/. FOG HAS REMAINED PATCHY IN NATURE THUS FAR..BUT WE
HAVE SEEN A FEW SPOTS DROP BELOW A MILE VISIBILITY. WE WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IF SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD BE
CONSIDERED LATER IN THE MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE AROUND MID DAY AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING
AND POTENTIALLY MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA HAS ALREADY PICKED UP ON THIS
AND WE HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING PERIOD.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS EAST OF THE REGION AND A RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST. THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TOMORROW...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
GOOD SURFACE HEATING AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME LOW CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS STRATUS DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH AND SPREADS NORTHWARD...BUT
THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD HOPEFULLY KEEP VISIBILITIES IN CHECK.
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS NORTH TEXAS
THURSDAY. LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN A LITTLE IN RESPONSE
TO THE DISTURBANCE...AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 15-20 MPH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ENOUGH UPGLIDE TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT
COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN LOW AND WE HAVE
KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A POTENT UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING INTO A CUT-
OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE
SUFFICIENT TIME TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE AS RETURN FLOW PERSISTS
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WOULD BEGIN SUNDAY AS LIFT FROM THE SYSTEM SPREADS
OVERHEAD...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
DURATION OF THE CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME IS LOOKS LIKES WE WILL HAVE A DAY OR TWO
TO BENEFIT FROM SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL CENTERED AROUND OUR DAY
7 FORECAST PERIOD.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 42 66 44 63 46 / 0 0 5 5 5
WACO, TX 39 65 42 64 46 / 0 0 5 5 10
PARIS, TX 40 64 38 57 39 / 0 0 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 38 65 40 62 45 / 0 0 5 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 38 64 39 61 43 / 0 0 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 43 65 45 62 46 / 0 0 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 41 66 41 61 43 / 0 0 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 42 67 44 63 44 / 0 0 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 41 67 43 64 47 / 0 0 5 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 39 65 40 64 47 / 0 0 5 5 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1155 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Challenging flight weather continues tonight. Patchy fog and
stratus is producing areas of MVFR to IFR conditions. Satellite
imagery animation indicates the stratus and fog are moving,
developing, or dissipating randomly. Thus, confidence for dominate
VFR tonight isn`t high. Tomorrow, expect VFR conditions.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Look for challenging flight weather conditions tonight. A line of
showers will continue to slowly drift south tonight. Also, patchy
fog will likely drop the visibility to near the MVFR range at some
terminals. In addition, satellite imagery shows some patchy stratus
still lingering. Thus, watch for MVFR ceilings tonight.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
The primary focus in the short term will be ongoing rain chances
and the return of fog and low visibilities to the forecast area.
Light rain showers will migrate east across the forecast area this
afternoon. Rainfall totals will remain low, though any precip will
assist in keeping the area moist. Inherited PoP grids are adequate
for expected weather this afternoon though new model data is
pessimistic about tonight and early tomorrow morning. Thus, removed
mention of PoPs for that time period.
NAM, GFS, and RAP model soundings are optimistic about bringing fog
back into West Central Texas tonight. At this time, fog is
expected to form sometime after midnight and lift shortly after 9
AM tomorrow. Areas of fog will likely be more widespread tonight
than they were early this morning, extending from south of
Interstate 10 to north of Throckmorton. Light winds tonight and
added moisture from today`s rain showers promote this solution.
Cloud cover kept temperatures from climbing too quickly this
morning resulting in afternoon highs near normal. Tonight, however,
added moisture and low cloud ceilings will insulate the forecast
area and keep temperatures 5-7 degrees above normal. Clearing
skies tomorrow afternoon will allow for unseasonably warm
temperatures with highs mainly in the mid 60s.
18
LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Shortwave ridging aloft Monday night will shift east as we head
into Tuesday as a weak shortwave trough moves across the
Rockies. This feature will move southeast into Plains by Wednesday
morning, slowing as it absorbs southern stream wave over the
southern Plains. Moisture will be slow to increase ahead of this
system, with dewpoints likely remaining in the lower 40s
throughout the day Tuesday. We should see ample high clouds,
keeping temperatures in the mid 60s Tuesday afternoon, but low
clouds are not expected until Tuesday night. This increasing
moisture and cloud cover will limit diurnal ranges and keep min
temps generally in the mid/upper 40s for Wednesday morning.
There are considerable differences in the midweek 500 mb pattern
between the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM, yielding low confidence in any
particular solution at this time. The GFS is the fastest of the
12z runs with the onset of isentropic ascent across West Central
TX with the ECMWF following suit 6-12 hours later. Given what has
been as progressive flow as of late, siding with a bit faster
solution seems reasonable. This broad, isentropic ascent will
result in an abundance of cloud cover Wednesday and Thursday with
a persistent southerly fetch at low-levels, maintaining modest
moisture advection. Rainfall is expected to be rather light,
similar to what we`re seeing today across the area, with amounts
typically under 1/10". The cloud cover and light precipitation
will also keep temps around 60 degrees, with the potential to be a
few degrees cooler if light rain showers are a bit more widespread
than anticipated. Low rain chances will hang around through
Thursday night as weak perturbations move through the flow aloft.
By Friday, we should see improving conditions as the shortwave
trough moves east and shortwave ridging returns. This should allow
a modest warm-up with dry weather anticipated heading into the
weekend. We are watching a rather strong trough setting course for
the west coast late in the week. The medium range models are
moving this trough across the Rockies over the weekend, backing
winds aloft to the southwest. The associated lee cyclogenesis will
enhance low-level winds and should promote increasing surface
moisture. The timing of this feature`s effects for West Central TX
is certainly up in the air at this time, but there is pretty
decent model consensus that a closed mid-level cyclone develops
and moves east-southeast into West TX around Sunday. This pattern
bears watching as it could provide the area with a good
opportunity for measurable rainfall. As usual, there is plenty of
time for things to change, but we`ll be watching!
Johnson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 40 66 43 66 45 / 5 0 0 0 10
San Angelo 40 66 43 66 45 / 5 0 0 5 20
Junction 41 68 41 66 45 / 10 5 0 0 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation: Huber
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1135 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WAS WORKING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 07.12Z NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH THE 07.15Z RAP IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS WAVE BREAKING INTO TWO PARTS
AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE EITHER
DISSIPATES AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA OR MOVES
NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST BUT GOING SOUTH OF THE
AREA ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI. AS THIS OCCURS...THE LINE OF RADAR
RETURNS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT
SHOULD HELP TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. IT NOW APPEARS AS IF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION BAND WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SECOND AND STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE WAVE
WILL COME ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE MODERATE
PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER AS IT COMES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WEAK QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-300 MB LAYER.
ISENTROPICALLY...THERE SHOULD BE 2 TO 3 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE
OCCURRING ON THE 290K SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO
PRODUCE A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND OF 60 TO 90 PERCENT
CHANCES WORKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE BIG
CONCERN WITH THIS PRECIPITATION IS WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE. THE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM
LAYER ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES IN TO
PRODUCE EITHER TOTAL OR PARTIAL MELTING FOR EITHER SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR SLEET. EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD WIPE OUT THIS WARM
LAYER WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...THIS LIKELY WILL NOT CONTINUE VERY LONG BEFORE
THERE IS A LOSS OF ICE REINTRODUCING THE CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THE ICE IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF LONGER OVER
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AS LIGHT SNOW
UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE. FORTUNATELY...WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED...ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT ICING MAY OCCUR. THE OTHER THING
THAT MAY MITIGATE THE ICING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO RISE AND REACH FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 94. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT WILL SEND OUT A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN THE AWARENESS ALONG WITH A SHORT TERM
GRAPHIC CAST IMAGE.
A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MONDAY AND PRODUCE WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
SOME WEAK QG CONVERGENCE SHOULD OCCUR IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER
ALONG WITH ABOUT 1 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR AND WILL
START THE DAY WITH 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA. STILL A CONCERN AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ICE IN THE CLOUDS AND WILL START WITH A LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING
DRIZZLE GOING TO EITHER FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE BASED ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA...THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE INCREASING WITH VALUES OF 7 TO 10 KM/C BELOW 850 MB
BY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW LEVEL LAYER LOOKS TO BE SATURATED AND WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO RING OUT
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE STAYED WITH FLURRIES AS
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT CONCERNED THIS LAYER MAY
NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE TO BE IN THE CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. BOTH THE 07.12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE UP COMING WEEKEND...BUT IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAST THIS WILL OCCUR. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO
DO THIS THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR 07.12Z GEM. THE FASTER GFS THEN
ALLOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO COME OUT OF THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS MAY JUST BE RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH LSE AT
MVFR AND RST AT IFR AT THE MOMENT. CONDITIONS WILL STAY DOWN
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD ACTUALLY GO DOWN A BIT WITH RST EXPECTED TO
BE LIFR AND LSE IFR. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY OVER THOUGH SOME
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY TO 20-25KTS WITH CIGS STAYING MVFR
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1039 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
.UPDATE...ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR TEMPERATURES AND ROAD
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN MAKE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD GLAZING OF UNTREATED
ROADS HIGHER THAN POINTS WEST. RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
LEANING MORE TOWARD A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET PROFILE VERSUS
SLEET/SNOW.
DID NOT ISSUE FOR SOUTHEAST AS RAP HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH
QPF AS TROUGH MOVES EAST...FOCUSING MORE OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI...THEN
EXPANDS OVER SE WI BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO
PCPN TYPE AND EXTENT SO NO HEADLINE...BUT WILL UPDATE SPS.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...LOOKING MORE LIKE A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX
TO REACH KMSN BETWEEN 06Z AND 07Z AND LAST FOR 2-3 HOURS WITH MVFR
VSBYS AND IFR CIGS. THE MIXY PCPN WILL TRACK EAST REACHING KUES
BETWEEN 10Z AND 11Z...AND KMKE AND KENW TOWARD 12Z. UNCERTAINTY
WITH PCPN TYPE AT EASTERN SITES...BUT LOOKING MORE LIKE RAIN/SLEET
MIX WITH GLAZING POTENTIAL HINGING ON AIR AND SURFACE TEMPS AT
TIME OF PCPN...WITH WARMING AIR TEMPS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH.
THE LOW CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MOISTURE
IS TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
NAM KEEPS CIGS AT IFR LEVELS WHILE GFS GUIDANCE RAISES THEM TO
MVFR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WEST AND EARLY EVENING EAST. WILL
TREND TOWARD THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGE TO GOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. STILL LOOKS LIKE WINDS
AND WAVES WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE FOR A TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE LATER MONDAY EVENING
BUILDING WAVES BACK UP TO CRITERIA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014/
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WELL DEFINED OVER NORTH DAKOTA...AND
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT...THEN
TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER STRONGER
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AREA...COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW TO MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE BAND...IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH THE
LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO PRODUCE A 4 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW OF MODERATE
TO STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
TIMING FOR THIS BAND WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES...TO AROUND 09Z TO 10Z MONDAY FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES. THE GFS/ECMWF
ARE THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW AND LIGHT SLEET MIX ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM IS MILDER WITH ITS
WARM LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE AND INDICATES SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
MIXING IN AT TIMES. THE RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO LEAN IN THIS DIRECTION
SOMEWHAT. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF AND WENT WITH
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. KEPT CHANCES FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH...IN CASE
MILDER MODELS ARE CORRECT.
SHOULD SEE SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1.0 INCH IN MOST
AREAS...A BIT MORE IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND LESS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. HOURLY RATES OF 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED.
GIVEN TIMING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY...CONSIDERED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HELD OFF AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. EVENING
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER ONE...ESPECIALLY IF GFS LEANS TOWARD THE
NAM/RAP WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
STRONGER 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW MONDAY. PERHAPS THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT RAIN LATER IN THE DAY...AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
LINGERING WEAK LIFT AND LOW LEVEL RH MAY RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE MONDAY EVENING BEFORE LOWER LEVELS FURTHER DRY.
WL CONTINUE LOW POPS FOR MEASUREABLE -RA/-SN IN THE EVE FOR THE FAR
EAST...CLOSER TO DEPARTING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS WI LATER TUE INTO WED.
LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEAST FOR A TIME TUE/TUE NGT WITH
DELTA-T WITH DELTA-T INCREASING TO AROUND 6-7C. LOW LEVELS SLOWLY
WARM AT THIS TIME...AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN DISAGREEMENT ON
AMOUNT OF VEERING OF WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD. HENCE WL HOLD OFF ON
ANY -SN OR FLURRY MENTION AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES REMAINING
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES. 00Z ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN TRENDING TOWARD SLOWER
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING EAST COAST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN FACT...APPEARS SYSTEM NOW TRENDING TOWARD
CUTOFF STATUS AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE EAST COAST THRU THE
WEEKEND. OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS AND GEM TRENDING
IN THIS DIRECTION. AS A RESULT...UPSTREAM LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CONUS INCLUDING WRN GTLAKES WL PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER...AT
LEAST THRU SAT. RIDGE LOOKS TO FINALLY SUCCUMB TO INTENSIFYING SHORT
WAVE FROM THE WRN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. HENCE BEST
THREAT FOR LIQUID PRECIP SUN NGT INTO MON. 925H TEMPS WARM FROM
AROUND -4C ON WED TO FLUCTUATE BTWN 2 AND 6C FROM THU THRU SUN.
LACK OF SNOW COVER HELPS...HOWEVER PENDING CLOUDS...DAYTIME TEMPS
LIKELY TO PEAK MOSTLY IN THE 40S...BEGINNING FRI.
ONE MINOR CONCERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS WHETHER ANY LAKE EFFECT
WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
ECMWF SHOWING MORE FAVORABLE ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WED NGT
BUT THEN BECOMES MORE NLY THU AND EVENTUALLY BACKS TO THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. DELTA-T LOOKS MARGINAL WED NGT SO WL HOLD OFF ON ANY
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS.
LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT SLEET WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MADISON SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION
BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z MONDAY...AND THE EASTERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z
AND 10Z MONDAY. VISIBILITIES BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH CEILINGS IN THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY.
EXPECTING ABOUT A 4 TO 5 HOUR TIME PERIOD OF THIS LIGHT SNOW AND
LIGHT SLEET MIX...ENDING BY 14Z TO 15Z MONDAY. 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE
FORECAST AT MADISON...WITH 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH AT THE EASTERN SITES.
HOURLY RATES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT
0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN AS WELL...BUT
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE MIX OF PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THERE MAY BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH CEILINGS BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS ARE
ANTICIPATED. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LATER ON MONDAY WOULD BE A DUSTING AT
BEST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST.
MARINE...
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC LOW PRESSURE
TROF WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A LULL IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED LATER
MON INTO MON EVE AS THE SFC TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE TROF MON NGT AS SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HENCE STATUS QUO
ON ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVY THRU TUE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ046-047-056-
057-062-063-067>069.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL
RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
A GOOD CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A PESKY WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
SITTING OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL VERY SLOWLY
EASE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A
FEW SHOWERS KEEP POPPING UP OVER COCHISE COUNTY FROM TIME TO TIME
AND LATEST HRRR RUNS SUPPORT THIS HAPPENING WELL INTO THE NIGHT WITH
A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. I ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE VERY WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY AND THE
AIR MASS WILL BE JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WAS UNTOUCHED. THE REMAINDER OF THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. CERNIGLIA
THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE HAS BEEN DEALING WITH THAT UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO CALIFORNIA LATE
THIS WEEK...AND INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A TAP INTO
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO
THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS. AS IT MOVES OUR WAY...IT WILL BEGIN TO
LOSE ITS MOISTURE SOURCE. BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS...ITS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH AND HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND OVERALL TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODEL RUNS
THEMSELVES ALL SERVE TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN A NICE COVERAGE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. AS OF
NOW...EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL WITH A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE SKY
ISLANDS. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH THE
PRECIPITATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL COOL THINGS DOWN DRAMATICALLY THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
VALLEY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY.
&&
AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/06Z.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF TUCSON WELL INTO THE NIGHT BUT
THEY WILL BE VERY WIDELY SCATTERED AND EXPECTED TO END BY 10/12Z.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS...GENERALLY ABOVE 15K FT AGL THRU
10/12Z...DECREASING TO SKC THEREAFTER. EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AFT 10/20Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. CERNIGLIA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA VERY
SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THAT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
FRIDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. CERNIGLIA
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
419 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS
OF SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO RETURN DRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 419 AM EST...AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
SITUATED NEAR BOSTON. A CLOSED OFF 500 HPA LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER NE PA/NORTHERN NJ.
LOTS OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON BOTH THE IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST...AND SOME THESE COLDER AND
DEEPER CLOUDS WILL GET PULLED NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND TOWARDS OUR REGION.
THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME AREAS OF SNOW...PERHAPS MIXING WITH RAIN
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AFFECTING NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE BEST DEFORMATION
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY WEST OF OUR AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. SOME DRIZZLE IS LIKELY OCCURRING IN A FEW AREAS AS
WELL...DUE TO THE LACK OF COLD CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF OUR
AREA. SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S...AND MANY AREAS CONTINUE TO BE
JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER
AROUND...AND SLIDE EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD. WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND PLENTY OF
FORCING DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW/PVA...AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 3KM HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BASICALLY OVERHEAD OUR REGION...ESP FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM/S TROWAL WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF OUR
REGION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO FAR NORTHERN NY...AND OUR
CWA LOOKS TO AVOID THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. STILL...WE CAN EXPECT SOME
ON AND OFF LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY.
P-TYPE WILL GENERALLY BE SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO MUCH
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT THANKS TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME MIXING WITH RAIN/SLEET IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP THIS MORNING...AS MODELS STILL SHOW A
WARM NOSE ALOFT BETWEEN 800-900 HPA...BUT THIS LOOKS TO GO AWAY BY
LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO...IN SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SUCH AS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...THERE COULD
BE SOME RAIN...MAINLY THIS MORNING...DUE TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS. TEMPS TODAY LOOK WARMEST IN THE MORNING HOURS...WITH LOW TO
MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY HOLD STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALL...WITH TEMPS THIS EVENING DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST AREAS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
STEADY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO END BY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THERE
STILL WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VARIABLE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ...AND
CERTAINLY WILL BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT AS WELL. AN ADDITIONAL 4-8
INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SCHOHARIE/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH 2-6 INCHES FOR THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION/LAKE GEORGE AND SARATOGA REGION. JUST 2-4
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN SRN VT/BERKSHIRES DUE TO INITIAL MIXING.
ONLY AN INCH OR TWO WILL FALL FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
DUE TO SOME MIXING WITH RAIN AS WELL. WITH THIS AMOUNTS IN
MIND...WE HAVE EXTENDED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 7 AM
THURSDAY...WHICH IS ALSO WHEN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS RUNS UNTIL. BASICALLY...ALL AREAS OUTSIDE
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKSHIRES...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT
ARE IN SOME TYPE OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING SFC LOW NEARBY AS
WELL...AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY WEATHER...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LESS THAN
RECENT DAYS...BUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER...WITH
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL...THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS EVEN STILL A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
FOR BOTH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LOCALIZED...AND MAINLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLY CHILLY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS
IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT...AND UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN...ESPECIALLY
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME...THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER DYNAMIC UPPER SYSTEM WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE
TRANQUIL WEATHER...WITH MORE ZONAL AND SPLIT UPPER FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE THAT HAS SHOWN BETTER SKILL OVER THE LAST MONTH OR SO IS
SUGGESTING THE MORE TRANQUIL ZONAL SPLIT FLOW. SO...JUST PUTTING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATER TUESDAY UNTIL
THE LONG RANGE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER.
HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...AGAIN...
WITH VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL WARMING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE HEAVIER AND STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY AND THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS SLOWLY SHRINKING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT AND FORECASTED THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THE PATCHY LIGHTER INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION...
JUST SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ABOUT 12Z...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLAKES
MIXING IN FROM TIME TO TIME. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER
BETWEEN LOW MVFR AND PERIODICALLY DROP JUST INTO IFR AT KALB AND
KPSF WHILE LIKELY REMAINING MVFR AT KGFL AND KPOU. HOWEVER...
ACKNOWLEDGING A SCATTERED LAYER AT AROUND 800 FEET AT KGFL AND KPOU
THROUGH 12Z.
NEW PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE REGION
AROUND OR AFTER 12Z...WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIXED AND CONTINUED
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. COLDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY BE
DRAWN INTO THE REGION TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW AND
KEEP IT AS SNOW HOWEVER THAT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THE SNOW COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS
OVER 15 KNOTS...BUT INFREQUENT ENOUGH THAT GUSTS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED
IN THE TAFS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH
MID MORNING SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AT
KALB...KPOU AND KPSF EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE REGION SAW A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...WHERE OVER AN
INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT OCCURRED. THIS PRECIPITATION LED TO A
LOT OF RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY IN THE HOUSATONIC BASIN. RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE RISEN SEVERAL FEET. MANY SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS
HAVE CRESTED OR ARE JUST ABOUT TO DO SO...WHILE SOME LARGER RIVERS
AND STILL SLOWLY RISING.
CURRENTLY..FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE STILL RIVER AT
BROOKFIELD AND FOR THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AT STEVENSON. THE STILL
RIVER SHOULD BE CRESTING SOON AND WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AT
STEVENSON IS STILL RISING AND IS CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE.
SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE FOR TODAY INTO TOMORROW...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT IN AREAS THAT SAW THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO RECEDE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ041-049-
050-052>054-083-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>040-042-043-047-048-051-058-063-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1257 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH
A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER TONIGHT. THE STORM WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO THE REGION...SO ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1257 AM EST...A SFC LOW IS SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A CLOSED OFF 500 HPA LOW TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
POCONOS. THE LATEST IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NJ AND HEADING N-NW. RIGHT
NOW...SOME DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA...WITH ONE BAND OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ANOTHER LINE ORIENTED FROM THE GLENS FALLS
AREA ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARDS THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION.
PRECIP IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR THE WESTERN BAND...WITH
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE EASTERN BAND...WITH P-TYPE DEPENDNENT ON
PRECIP INTENSITY. OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND...THERE IS SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOWERS.
THE 03Z 3KM HRRR AND OUR HIRES WRF...ALONG WITH OTHER GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE NAM12 AND GFS40...ALL SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM OVER OUR AREA LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NEARBY LARGE SCALE FORCING...AND
THE DEEPER CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO TWIRL INTO OUR REGION AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH THE
ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS FOR NORTHERN/WESTERN
AREAS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. PTYPE IS STARTING TO TREND MORE
TOWARDS SNOW...BUT IN AREAS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL
ABOVE FREEZING...SOME RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT SOME SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL...AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM NOSE. HOWEVER...THIS WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL BE DIMINISHING TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AS THE COLD AIR
STARTS TO DEEPEN OVERHEAD.
TEMPS WILL BE BASICALLY STEADY ALL NIGHT...WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE MID 30S IN VALLEY
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
WHILE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHAT WAVE/S/ WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION...MOISTURE WILL WRAP IN OFF THE ATLANTIC TO KEEP THE
HIGH PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST LOCATIONS WILL ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY. AS FOR THERMAL
PROFILES...WE WILL BE COOLING DOWN THE COLUMN WHERE MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS FOR
THE SPECIFICS...
WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE POINT TOWARD A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
REMAINS JUST OFF THE JERSEY SHORE. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HIGHER
THETA-E /TROWAL/ BACK INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES REMAIN RATHER HIGH OF 3-4 G/KG SO
WHERE IT DOES SNOW...WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.
PER THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND 00Z ECMWF...THIS SEEMS TO LINE
UP FOR OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING WILL
TAKE PLACE AS PER CSTAR RESEARCH...THESE UPPER LOWS ARE QUITE
PROBLEMATIC WITH PROVIDING SPECIFICS WHERE THE HEAVIER QPF WILL FALL.
THURSDAY...AS THE LOW FILLS AND FURTHER REDUCES THE
BAROCLINICITY...THE PRECIP INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH. SO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH
JUST A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
EASTWARD...ITS INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHC-SCT SNOW PROBABILITIES WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
AMPLIFY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A
TROUGH MOVING IN ON THE WEST COAST. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN
UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA WILL
DAMPEN THE RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST.
THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
WE SHOULD STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS...MAINLY
SNOW...AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STACKED LOW WILL LESSEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
GRADUALLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER OVER
MOST OF THE THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID DECEMBER ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE HEAVIER AND STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY AND THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS SLOWLY SHRINKING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT AND FORECASTED THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THE PATCHY LIGHTER INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION...
JUST SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ABOUT 12Z...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLAKES
MIXING IN FROM TIME TO TIME. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER
BETWEEN LOW MVFR AND PERIODICALLY DROP JUST INTO IFR AT KALB AND
KPSF WHILE LIKELY REMAINING MVFR AT KGFL AND KPOU. HOWEVER...
ACKNOWLEDGING A SCATTERED LAYER AT AROUND 800 FEET AT KGFL AND KPOU
THROUGH 12Z.
NEW PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE REGION
AROUND OR AFTER 12Z...WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIXED AND CONTINUED
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. COLDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY BE
DRAWN INTO THE REGION TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW AND
KEEP IT AS SNOW HOWEVER THAT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THE SNOW COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS
OVER 15KNOTS...BUT INFREQUENT ENOUGH THAT GUSTS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED
IN THE TAFS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH
MID MORNING SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AT
KALB...KPOU AND KPSF EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SN.
THU: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THU NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE CANCELED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR LITCHFIELD...EASTERN ULSTER AND
DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THE RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE STILL RISING FROM
THE RUNOFF.
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE STILL RIVER AT BROOKFIELD AND
FOR THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AT STEVENSON. OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS
ARE STILL RISING FROM RUNOFF.
SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT IN AREAS THAT SEE THE HEAVIEST LIQUID PRECIP TODAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO RECEDE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ041-049-050-052>054-083-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>040-042-043-047-048-051-058-063-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ014-015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GJM/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
351 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
...UPDATED LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
FOG DEVELOPED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ALONG A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS WHICH WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WAS
LOCATED IN EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. HRRR AND RAP WERE SIMILAR AND
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AROUND
1/4 MILE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THIS AXIS WHICH WILL BE LOCATED
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. GIVEN THIS AND THE 2 AM HUGOTON
OBSERVATION WILL GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE THE
MOISTURE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO EARLIER THIS
MORNING, WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
FROM WEST TO EAST. HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD WILL ERODE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE NEAR TERM MODELS. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS, THE RAP AND NAM BOTH AGREE THAT FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL
HAVE MORE SUN THAN SOUTH CENTRAL OR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVE THIS AGREEMENT WILL FAVOR THE WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND GUIDANCE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS WHILE TRENDING
TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE FURTHER EAST.
DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL MARGINAL FOR DRIZZLE LATER
THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 SO AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS
LEAVING MENTION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OUT EARLY TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND AN HIGHER
DEW POINTS BEING LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. BASED ON
THIS FOG ONCE AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
USE THE NAM, NMM, AND ARW AS A FIRST GUESS ON THE LOCATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR DIGHTON TO LIBERAL.
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE, STATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. UPPER 30S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DEW POINTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD
COVER AREAL COVERAGE/TIMING AND TEMPERATURES, BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS MOST LIKELY MAINLY
EARLY THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE AREA, AND LIKELY LINGERING ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON EVEN IF WESTERN
SECTIONS CLEAR OUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. THE STRATUS AND
POTENTIAL FOG AS WELL SHOULD RAPIDLY REDEVELOP EACH EVENING WITH
ELEVATED DEW POINTS IN THE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW MAY
PROVIDE INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH THE DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC
LEAF. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONTINUING TO ALLOW THE WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT TO IMPACT THE DDC FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING, WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF PRESENTS A SOLUTION THAT
ASSUMES THE DRY CONVEREYOR BELT KEEPS THE UPPER BANDED RAIN/SNOW
OVER FARTHER NORTH OVER NRN KS. THE GFS APPEARS MORE AGRESSIVE FOR
A BANDED PRECIPTATION SOLUTION ACROSS OUR AREA. UNCERTAINTY WILL
REMAIN HIGH FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS, HOWEVER 50 TO 60 PECENT
CHANCES FOR RAIN EXISTS SUNDAY WITH RAIN OR SNOW AS WELL INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THIS TYPE 1 EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
STRATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW DRAWS MORE HUMID AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT GCK
BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z WEDNESDAY AND DDC BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BASED ON
THE LATEST BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP. IFR TO LOW MVFR
VISIBILIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT HAYS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
THE VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 37 55 42 / 0 10 0 10
GCK 50 33 56 37 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 57 35 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 53 36 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 43 32 51 40 / 0 10 0 10
P28 47 39 53 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>064-074>078-085>088.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
332 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...AS LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO CREEP BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LACK OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCES. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH...RESULTING IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS INTO WESTERN MO MID/LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF HILLSBORO-EUREKA-
CHANUTE. ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
PERSISTENT WEAK TO MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INTO A
CHILLY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...PROBABLY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
SHALLOW CHILLY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BE ON
THE RISE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES BY FRIDAY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S-50S BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
ADK
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS THE DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE MODEST TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES REGARDING VARIOUS SYNOPTIC FEATURES...MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL CHANCES OF AT LEAST ONE-QUARTER INCH LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING...MAY
ALSO SEE SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WOULD LOCALLY
ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...WESTERN AND NORTHERN KANSAS COULD BE
LOOKING AT ACCUMULATING SNOW...AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN SOUTH. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS NORTHWEST KS WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
MEANINGFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THERE IS STILL WAY TOO MUCH
WOBBLE IN THE GUIDANCE TO PINPOINT AN EXACT TRACK WITH ANY
ACCURACY.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW CLDS THAT
DEVELOPED IN KC METRO AND IN N CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WERE NOT HANDLED
WELL BY GFS/NAM...BUT AT LEAST RAP HAD FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON IT.
RAP SUGGESTS THAT KCNU WILL ESCAPE THE MVFR CIGS...BUT VFR DECK
WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
SUSPECT GIVEN RETURN FLOW...THAT VFR CIGS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.
HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 44 38 51 45 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 43 36 49 43 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 42 36 49 43 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 44 37 50 43 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 46 39 54 45 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 42 33 49 42 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 44 34 50 42 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 41 34 48 43 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 42 36 49 43 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 48 39 52 43 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 44 37 49 42 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 43 36 49 42 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 46 38 51 42 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
301 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
FOG DEVELOPED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ALONG A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS WHICH WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WAS
LOCATED IN EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. HRRR AND RAP WERE SIMILAR AND
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AROUND
1/4 MILE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THIS AXIS WHICH WILL BE LOCATED
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. GIVEN THIS AND THE 2 AM HUGOTON
OBSERVATION WILL GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE THE
MOISTURE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO EARLIER THIS
MORNING, WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
FROM WEST TO EAST. HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD WILL ERODE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE NEAR TERM MODELS. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS, THE RAP AND NAM BOTH AGREE THAT FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL
HAVE MORE SUN THAN SOUTH CENTRAL OR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVE THIS AGREEMENT WILL FAVOR THE WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND GUIDANCE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS WHILE TRENDING
TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE FURTHER EAST.
DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL MARGINAL FOR DRIZZLE LATER
THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 SO AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS
LEAVING MENTION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OUT EARLY TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND AN HIGHER
DEW POINTS BEING LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. BASED ON
THIS FOG ONCE AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
USE THE NAM, NMM, AND ARW AS A FIRST GUESS ON THE LOCATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR DIGHTON TO LIBERAL.
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE, STATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. UPPER 30S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DEW POINTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE JUST
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, NEAR THE ROCKIES. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
BY 08Z OR SO, AND LINGER THROUGH THE 14Z HOUR THURSDAY. OTHER
THAN THAT, THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID 50S
TO EVEN MID 60S, AS A LONG WARM SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL SET UP AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING. BY LATE FRIDAY, SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY GRACE OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM
BARBER TO PRATT TO STAFFORD. SATURDAY, THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE STACKED AS THE UPPER HIGH SLIDES EAST, AND SOME LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR IN THE SAME SOUTHEAST ZONES AS IT DID
ON FRIDAY, BUT THIS TIME ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL COME OFF THE ROCKIES AND FORM
INTO A CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME BARRELING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS,
CROSSING WESTERN SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD AIR WILL USHER INTO
KANSAS IN THE CENTER AND WEST SIDE OF THE EAST-MOVING UPPER LOW.
THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH THE EASTERN MOVING UPPER LOW, SHOULD
BEING SOME MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
FALL IS THE BIG QUESTION, AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL WAVERING
SOMEWHAT WITH THE PATH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN A FEW OF OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. BUT SINCE THAT IS 5.5 PERIODS OUT, I WILL NOT
PUT ANY SNOWFALL GRIDS IN JUST YET. AN SPS WAS ISSUED FOR THIS
STORM.
MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL DROP TO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S BY SUNDAY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE SNOW OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW LEFT OVER ON MONDAY, IN THE
WRAP-AROUND PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE. SLIGHT CHANCES
WILL SUFFICE FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT, FOR NOW. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN, DROPPING FROM THE MID
30S TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY MORNING TO THE LOWER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
STRATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW DRAWS MORE HUMID AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT GCK
BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z WEDNESDAY AND DDC BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BASED ON
THE LATEST BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP. IFR TO LOW MVFR
VISIBILIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT HAYS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
THE VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 37 55 42 / 0 10 0 10
GCK 50 33 56 37 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 57 35 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 53 36 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 43 32 51 40 / 0 10 0 10
P28 47 39 53 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ063-064-
076>078-085>088.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1207 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF EASTERN
KANSAS ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE 285-295K SURFACES MAY ALLOW ENOUGH MOISTENING FOR SOME
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL KS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A LESSENED THREAT OF FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES TOWARD FRIDAY. WEAK LEE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE
CONTINUED...RELATIVELY LIGHTER SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE LIKELYHOOD OF
STRATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION. AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE WILL
ALSO BE A FORECAST PROBLEM.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES...EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z/9TH ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER BOTH OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED GREATLY WITH RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH NORTH-SOUTH
OSCILLATION OF THE LOW TRACK. THEREFORE...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE REGARDING THE EXACT LOW TRACK AND FORECAST DETAILS. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE DRAWN UP NORTH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH...BUT THINK THE BETTER SURFACE-BASED
STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS
ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
TRACK...TO KEEP THIS MENTION IN FORECAST IN CENTRAL KS ALTHOUGH
BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE NORTHWEST/NORTH OF OUR COUNTIES.
AFTER A VERY MILD MID-DECEMBER WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK TO CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW CLDS THAT
DEVELOPED IN KC METRO AND IN N CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WERE NOT HANDLED
WELL BY GFS/NAM...BUT AT LEAST RAP HAD FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON IT.
RAP SUGGESTS THAT KCNU WILL ESCAPE THE MVFR CIGS...BUT VFR DECK
WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
SUSPECT GIVEN RETURN FLOW...THAT VFR CIGS WL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA ON TOMORROW. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 44 39 53 45 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 43 37 54 43 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 42 37 52 43 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 44 37 53 43 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 46 40 54 45 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 42 35 53 42 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 44 36 53 42 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 41 35 52 43 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 42 36 53 43 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 48 37 53 43 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 44 35 52 42 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 43 35 51 42 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 46 36 53 42 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1155 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
Surface high pressure continues to build southward today ahead of
the next weak shortwave, which will drop southeastward within the
northwest flow aloft. Meanwhile the edge of the stratus deck has
worked into far northeast KS this morning. The NAM and GFS forecast
has kept this stratus from building further into the forecast area
later this evening. The latest HRRR and RAP have now developed the
stratus further southward towards the I-70 corridor. It appears that
the models are cooling that near saturated layer once daytime mixing
has stopped. Across central KS with the exception of some high
clouds mostly clear skies may allow the boundary layer to cool
enough for fog. Although the soundings seem to indicate relatively
strong winds just above the surface, which may prevent this from
developing. If the stratus develops and or continues in the
northeast areas then the forecast lows will probably be too cool.
Otherwise most areas should drop into the mid to upper 20s.
With regards to precipitation early tomorrow morning. The models
have been trending much drier in the lower levels as the lift
increases in the saturated layers. The lift appears to be fairly
weak and only efficient for drizzle, but with the dry air in place
that drizzle will most likely not reach the ground. Temperatures are
also forecast to gradually rise tomorrow morning reaching above
freezing by late morning or around noon. So freezing precipitation
is looking unlikely at this point. Temperatures will warm as the
winds veer on the back side of the retreating surface high. There is
also an outside chance that if the lift is strong enough to generate
rain then sprinkles will be possible as advertised by the ECMWF and
GEM. This would most likely occur during the afternoon hours when
the wave is forecast to pass over the area. High temperatures
tomorrow should reach the around 40 for most locations.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
The long term forecast remains cloudy and dreary for the most
part with the bulk of the forecast focus on an impending large
storm system which should arrive by late Sunday into early next
week.
For Wednesday night through Saturday, the forecast area will be
entrenched in a very moist near-surface airmass. While there will
be ridging overhead, it appears that this will only help to keep
the surface airmass fairly stagnant through Friday and expect the
persistent low clouds to keep temperatures pretty well in check
with minimal diurnal temperature swings. There will also be
periods of drizzle and fog...particularly overnight and into the
morning hours...with weak but persistent lift within the moist
layer. The good news is that even with the clouds, temperatures
will be above freezing through Saturday night and any light
precipitation will fall as liquid. Also, as the weak progresses,
southerly low level winds will also advect warmer temperatures
into the area to the extent that even without sunshine the area
should be in the upper 50s to around 60 for high temperatures
Friday through Sunday.
Late Saturday into Sunday, a large storm system will be taking
shape over the western CONUS, and is scheduled to bring
precipitation into the local forecast area by late Sunday. While
model guidance is currently in rather strong agreement regarding
the evolution of this system, forecaster confidence remains toward
the low end. The reason for this low confidence lies in the
complex nature of the storm and also the run-to-run model
variability over the past few days. The main energy to impact the
local area will come from the southwestern CONUS, but will also
interact (unsure how much) with a strong northern stream short
wave trough. This interaction will strongly impact the atmospheric
temperature profiles on the north and northwest side of the storm
system and could have a profound impact on the local weather for
Sunday night into Monday night. One thing that is certain is that
this storm system will not lack moisture as it will have a strong
moisture feed ahead of it for several days into the Plains.
Current indications are that this event would be mainly rain for
the local area with some amounts greater than 1", but could mix
with snow or other winter weather types especially across north
central KS late in the event. The wild card is in how cold the
airmass is behind an incoming cold front that will undercut the
system. Lower resolution models can sometimes trend a bit too warm
with undercutting cold airmasses in the long range, but lack of
snow cover to the north supports a slightly warmer airmass. If
it should trend colder there would be more of a chance for winter
precip locally.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
Edge of MVFR stratus will probably remain across the KTOP and KFOE
terminals through 14Z, then there may be a windo of VFR conidtions
until the stratus lowers to MVFR during the afternoon hours at all
TAF sites. After 00Z low stratus and light fog will develop
across the terminals. Low MVFR ceilings will become IFR through
the evening and visibilities will drop to 3SM. There will also be
occasional drizzle through the evening hours.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1120 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY A -22C 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK CLOSED 500MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
ARIZONA. A 500MB DEFORMATION ZONE WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
ARIZONA SYSTEM AND EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST UTAH TO THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS
OBSERVED AT THE 700MB AND 500MB LEVEL AND A 700MB TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO OKLAHOMA. AN 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA WITH A 20 TO 25 KNOTS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND ADVECTING
WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEW POINTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO
TO THE SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A WEDGE OF
HIGHER DEW POINTS AT THE SURFACE WERE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THIS
STATIONARY FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
NEBRASKA ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS TO PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
FOR TONIGHT, A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SAME AREA WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AROUND 8 TO
12 MPH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
HELPED TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE AVAILABLE RETURN MOISTURE, SO
DEWPOINTS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO BE COLDER TONIGHT AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS I-70
TO AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS, SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP. THEN TOWARDS MORNING, THE FOG SHOULD EXPAND EASTWARD
INTO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, OR ANY DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FORECAST SURFACE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO
SHALLOW FOR DRIZZLE. TEMPS MAY INCREASE SLOWLY TOWARD MORNING AS
INCREASING DEWPOINTS MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY.
AREAS OF FOG COULD LINGER INTO MUCH OF THE MORNING, THEN SKIES
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FAR WEST TOWARDS THE COLORADO BORDER, AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS. HIGHS WILL
BE FAIRLY MILD OUT WEST, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S, WHILE COOLER 40S IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE JUST
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, NEAR THE ROCKIES. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
BY 08Z OR SO, AND LINGER THROUGH THE 14Z HOUR THURSDAY. OTHER
THAN THAT, THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID 50S
TO EVEN MID 60S, AS A LONG WARM SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL SET UP AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING. BY LATE FRIDAY, SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY GRACE OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM
BARBER TO PRATT TO STAFFORD. SATURDAY, THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE STACKED AS THE UPPER HIGH SLIDES EAST, AND SOME LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR IN THE SAME SOUTHEAST ZONES AS IT DID
ON FRIDAY, BUT THIS TIME ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL COME OFF THE ROCKIES AND FORM
INTO A CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME BARRELING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS,
CROSSING WESTERN SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD AIR WILL USHER INTO
KANSAS IN THE CENTER AND WEST SIDE OF THE EAST-MOVING UPPER LOW.
THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH THE EASTERN MOVING UPPER LOW, SHOULD
BEING SOME MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
FALL IS THE BIG QUESTION, AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL WAVERING
SOMEWHAT WITH THE PATH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN A FEW OF OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. BUT SINCE THAT IS 5.5 PERIODS OUT, I WILL NOT
PUT ANY SNOWFALL GRIDS IN JUST YET. AN SPS WAS ISSUED FOR THIS
STORM.
MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL DROP TO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S BY SUNDAY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE SNOW OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW LEFT OVER ON MONDAY, IN THE
WRAP-AROUND PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE. SLIGHT CHANCES
WILL SUFFICE FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT, FOR NOW. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN, DROPPING FROM THE MID
30S TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY MORNING TO THE LOWER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
STRATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW DRAWS MORE HUMID AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT GCK
BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z WEDNESDAY AND DDC BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BASED ON
THE LATEST BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP. IFR TO LOW MVFR
VISIBILIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT HAYS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
THE VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 47 41 59 / 0 0 10 0
GCK 29 49 37 60 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 31 57 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 30 54 44 63 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 25 41 38 56 / 0 0 10 0
P28 30 46 41 58 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1152 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.AVIATION...
AT BIT OF BR ALG THE TX COAST...VSBY 3/4 TO 3 MILES OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE... VFR WX TO HOLD THRU SUNRISE ALL OTHER TAF SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
UPDATE...WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH WASHED OUT AS IT
FILTERED THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTH LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING. A STRATCU DECK MOVING SW FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY HAS BEEN PICKED UP BY THE RUC AND LOOKS TO MOVE INTO CEN LA
LATER TNITE. WENT AHEAD AND MADE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT UPWARD ON
TEMPS THERE BY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LESS FOG THAN
LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED MIXING AND CLOUDS.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
AVIATION...
HI LVL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NW... OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT
RULES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...WITH A
SECONDARY RE-ENFORCING HIGH TO MOVE S ACROSS THE MS VALLEY LATER
THIS EVENING. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NE WINDS...EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 ACROSS
C LA WHERE THE COOLEST AIR WILL RESIDE.
INCREASING MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED BY WED
AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH THE COOL AIR...WILL HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS
DOWN TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FURTHER TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR THU MORNING.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS TX MAY GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA FOR SE TX/C LA BY THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. POPS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN LESS THAN 20% FOR THIS. BY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST AND REPLACED BY
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL COME WITH A
SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF LOW TO SWEEP ACROSS TX AND THE ARKLATEX MON. BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH EITHER AN ENHANCED AREA OR
LINE OF TSRA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE CLEARING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THIS MODEL RUN...EXPECTING COOLER
AND DRY WEATHER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DML
MARINE...
NW WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL INCREASE A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10-15 KTS
AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME E AND SE
AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST...AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 41 61 43 62 47 / 0 0 0 10 10
KBPT 43 63 46 62 50 / 0 0 10 10 10
KAEX 39 58 38 59 44 / 0 0 0 10 10
KLFT 41 61 41 62 45 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
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&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
413 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
THEN LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
THE FORECAST REMAINS A TRICKY ONE...HOWEVER THINGS ARE MUCH LESS
COMPLICATED THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. UPPER LOW PRES
IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT INVOF OF KNYC. THIS HAS FOR THE
MOST PART FLOODED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO...THE AREA WITH WARMTH IN
THE MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...WARMTH HAS ALSO INVADED MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH THE ONLY REMAINING SUB-FREEZING HOLDOUTS BEING THE
WRN ME MTNS.
EARLY THIS MORNING DRY SLOT HAD PUSHED THRU THE AREA...BRINGING AN
END TO STEADY PCPN AND LEADING TO MORE DZ/FZDZ. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MORNING...HOWEVER IR SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWS COLDER CLOUD
TOPS ENCROACHING FROM THE S...INDICATING THAT THE COLUMN IS
BECOMING SATURATED ONCE MORE. WITH THIS WILL COME ANOTHER ROUND OF
PCPN...AS ELY INFLOW REFIRES OFF THE GULF OF ME. THE DEEPENING
UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS QUEBEC WILL BE THE
MECHANISM BEHIND THIS STRENGTHENING ELY MID LEVEL JET. THE FOCUS
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS WRN ME...THOUGH
INITIALLY NH WILL ALSO GET IN ON PCPN AS IT LIFTS NWD. HIGHEST QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE THE WRN ME MTNS...WHERE THE ELY FLOW LINGERS THE
LONGEST AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES AMOUNTS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES.
EVEN STILL QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR SO FOR THESE
AREAS...AND LESS AS YOU HEAD S AND W. AS SUCH HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLOOD WATCH...AS ONLY NUISANCE AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING SEEMS A
POSSIBILITY WITH THESE QPF AMOUNTS.
AS FOR THE WINTER HEADLINES...I FELT CONFIDENT THAT LOW AND MID
LEVEL WARMTH WILL RESULT IN RNFL FOR ALL BUT THE NRN THIRD OF THE
CWFA. ANY REMAINING WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN DROPPED.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN ARE THE WRN ME MTNS...WHERE TEMPS REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING. IN ADDITION...SFC HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO QUEBEC TODAY. THIS MAY REINVIGORATE THE COLD AIR DAMMING...OR
AT LEAST KEEP THINGS STEADY STATE. THIS PROLONGS THE THREAT OF
SN...PL...AND ZR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM RANGELEY TO JACKMAN SHOW
SHOW A DECENT WARM NOSE NEAR 800 MB FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH THE
COLD AIR MAXIMIZED AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FT. GIVEN THE HEIGHT OF
THE WARM NOSE THAT DEFINITELY BRINGS PL INTO PLAY...WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ICING IN THAT ZONE ABOVE 1000 FT. SREF ZR
PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE PERCENTAGE OF
FROZEN PCPN INCREASING AS HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN
TODAY...INDICATING THE COLUMN MAY TRY AND DYNAMICALLY COOL SOME.
TAKING THIS ALL INTO ACCOUNT I BLENDED THE 10/00Z ECMWF WITH THE
NAM AND CMC REGIONAL TO PRODUCE THERMAL PROFILES. THE RESULTING WX
GRIDS YIELDED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SN/PL WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF
ZR FOR THE WRN ME MTNS. AS A RESULT I HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THESE ZONES...AND BRACKET THEM WITH A
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MAINLY A LIGHT ICING WITH ANY SNWFL. IN THE
END FEEL THAT THIS IS A BETTER RESULT THAN LEAVING WARNINGS UP
FROM HEAVY PCPN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEB GRAPHICS
REPRESENT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. ELY
INFLOW OF MOISTURE WILL BE CUT OFF AND SHUNTED NWD HOWEVER...AND
WE/LL BE LEFT WITH SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER THE LOW CENTER.
HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL
ASSIST IN THE LIFTING PROCESS. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE WORKING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...GRADUALLY CHANGING SHRA TO SHSN AWAY
FROM THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH
ITS MOIST AND UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND
PRODUCING INSTABILITY SNW SHOWERS THU NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE LOW FINALLY DRIFTS FAR ENOUGH E
TO ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING AS A STRONG SFC/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS E.
EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATED WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU MID
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION.
WILL SEE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE ARE ALL TERMINALS THRU THIS MORNING AS
WELL. STEADY PCPN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE S THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
RNFL FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH THE ONLY RISK OF MIXED PCPN AT KHIE.
NELY WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THRU THE MORNING. GRADUALLY IFR
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THU.
LONG TERM...SOME LINGERING SCT RN/SNW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY PSBLY LOWERING CONDS TO MVFR AT TIMES OTHERWISE VFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AOA 35 KTS. BAYS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO
SCA. EXPECTED WINDS TO DIMINISH ON ALL WATERS TO 25 KTS BEFORE
12Z. SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THRU THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO BELOW SCA CONDS BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE NW FLOW FROM THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 9.7 FT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE /AT PORTLAND/ COMBINED WITH ONSHORE
WINDS AND LARGE OFFSHORE SEAS MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS AT 122 PM TODAY. HIGH SURF
WILL ALSO CAUSE SOME BEACH EROSION.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ007>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-
013.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151-
153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...LEGRO
MARINE...LEGRO/MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1247 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
STRETCING S FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE SE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPR RDG
IN THE PLAINS. SFC HI PRES UNDER THE THE UPR RDG STRETCHES FM NW
ONTARIO INTO MN. 12HR 00Z-12Z H5 HGT RISES IN THE 100-150M RANGE FM
YPL TO INL AND MPX INDICATE THE UPR RDG/SFC HI ARE BUILDING INTO THE
WRN GREAT LKS...BUT PLENTY OF LO CLDS/A FEW FLURRIES LINGER OVER THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTN WITH LLVL MSTR TRAPPED IN NEAR SFC NNE FLOW OFF
LK SUP UNDER INVRN BASE THAT HAD LOWERED TO NEAR H95 BY 12Z AT INL
UNDER THE STRONG DNVA/SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING UPR
RDG. THE AIR TO THE N OF LK SUP IS QUITE A BIT DRIER PER THE 12Z YPL
RAOB...WITH SFC DEWPTS NEAR OR BLO 0F AT MOST PLACES IN ONTARIO.
SKIES ARE MOCLR THERE...AND ASSOCIATED DRYING IS TENDING TO BREAK UP
THE LO CLDS OVER THE NRN AND ERN PORTION OF LK SUP. BUT THIS CLRG IS
HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH PROGRESS TOWARD UPR MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON LO CLD TRENDS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPS.
TNGT...AS UPR RDG CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE E...SFC HI PRES
RDG IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY E AS WELL...REACHING A LINE FM NEAR
JAMES BAY INTO NW WI BY 12Z WED. LOWERING INVRN BASE UNDER THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD END ANY LINGERING FLURRIES...BUT MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TO BE MORE PESSIMISTIC IN REGARDS TO CLEARING THE LO
CLDS...WHICH SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH RATHER SLOW OBSVD CLRG TREND.
BEST CHC FOR SOME CLRG WL BE OVER THE ERN CWA AS THE SLOWLY VEERING
LLVL FLOW TOWARD THE E WL DOWNSLOPE OFF ONTARIO AND LIMIT THE OVER
WATER TRAJECTORY. ONE OTHER AREA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME CLRG IS
OVER THE FAR W...WHERE FLOW SHIFTING TOWARD THE SSE WL DOWNSLOPE AS
WELL. BUT THE SFC-H925 WINDS ARE FCST TO BE ONLY 5-10 KTS...SO THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MIGHT NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP THE LO
CLDS SIGNIFICANTLY. WL TEND TOWARD THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR E...WITH LINGERING CLDS HOLDING UP THE TEMPS ELSEWHERE.
WED...SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS IS PROGGED TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY E THRU
THE DAY...REMAINING OVER CENTRAL UPR MI THRU THE DAY. WITH CONTINUED
SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT LINGERING LO CLDS TO SLOWLY BREAK UP. THESE CLDS
SHOULD BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
CWA...BUT EVEN HERE THE CLDS SHOULD BREAK UP AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVRN
SINKS TO THE NEAR THE SFC AS SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS. TENDED TOWARD THE
LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN HI STABILITY SHOWN ON FCST
SDNGS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AND DRY AIR WILL
LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SAME TIME...STRONG UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS BECOMING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY CLEAR...DRY AND
VERY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 40 DEGREES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 10 TO 12C.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT
HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY FALL ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL
MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO OVERLY ABUNDANT OR DEEP...AS A LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...HELPING TO FOCUS
THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW INLAND
AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD
NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON ROADWAYS WITH THE WARMER DAYTIME
HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...WENT WITH THE VERY LIGHT RAIN
MENTION...WITH DROPLETS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SMALL AS MOISTURE IS
NOT DEEP ENOUGH FOR RAINFALL TO AMOUNT TO MUCH. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SOUTHERN LOW THROUGH THE REMAINING
EXTENDED WITH THE 06Z GFS BRINGING THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST REACHING
SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MI BY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE LOW
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...AROUND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AT THE SAME TIME. THE
LATEST...12Z MODEL RUN OF THE GFS/EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. BOTH MODELS ALSO AGREE WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL ONCE AGAIN.
THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
COOLER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND
-8 TO -10C MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOP...THIS WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE NNE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
UNDER A LOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HAS RESULTED IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH
SOME NEAR SFC DRYING WILL KEEP THE CIGS GENERALLY IN THE MVFR
RANGE...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME CLEAING AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT SAW AND IWD WED MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO A MORE ESE DIRECTION THAT WILL DOWNSLOPE INTO IWD AND
LIMIT MOISTENING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SAW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
ANY CLEARING IS LIMITED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND
RELATIVELY WEAK DRY ADVECTION EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF TO UNDER 15KT. THESE
LIGHTER WINDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS POINT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1039 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
A STRONG INVERSION TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER 925H TODAY AND
MOST OF THE REGION CONTINUED TO BE PLAGUED BY THE PRESENCE OF LOW
STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. A HOLE IN THE CLOUDS JUST SOUTH OF THE
TWIN CITIES WILL LIKELY EXPAND OVER THE METRO INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE FILLING IN OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING THE INVERSION IN PLACE TO
HELP LOW STRATUS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AT THIS
POINT...WHICH WAS THE ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN ADDITION...WARMED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AND COOLED HIGHS FOR TOMORROW THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
STRATUS. FOG NOT A MAJOR CONCERN AS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO
SIMPLY PROMOTE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS RATHER THAN FOG. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE 925H THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WESTERN MN WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE
CLEARING SKIES...BUT WHETHER OR NOT THAT HAPPENS AT ALL TOMORROW
REMAINS IN DOUBT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT DRIZZLE THIS
WEEKEND. FOR THAT REASON BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER...AND HAVE LIKELY
WORDING FOR DRIZZLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
H850 TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL ACT TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. MEANWHILE THE
SYNOPTIC SURFACE WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE INCREASING FROM BOTH ADVECTION...AND
EVAPORATION OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK. THIS LACK OF MIXING WILL
SUPPORT INCREASED CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...SO HAVE DECREASED
MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...AND INCREASED MIN TEMPERATURES TO LIMIT
THE DIURNAL SWING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SATURATION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL GENERATED QPF OFF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
09.12 IS A FEW HUNDREDTHS...WHICH FITS THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF LOW
STRATUS/FOG AND PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY
A SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST...TOGETHER WITH A MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS LOW...SO DID
NOT STRAY FROM THE BLENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WITH EITHER
TEMPERATURES OR POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE AREA UNDER A
STRONG INVERSION...LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND.
LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
BR WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR CIGS
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH IT APPEARING LESS AND LESS LIKELY
THAT WE WILL CLEAR OUT. SOUNDS FROM THE NAM AND RAP CONTINUE
INDICATE THE PERSISTENCE OF LLVL MOISTURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SLIGHT/TEMPORARY LIFTING OF CIGS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON /MOSTLY WEST/...BUT WOULD MOST LIKELY DEGRADE BACK
DOWN EARLY IN THE EVENING.
KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS STAYING IFR OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH MFR VSBYS. SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT THE SITE SOCKED IN GIVEN MODELS
INSISTENCE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS S 6-8 KTS.
FRI...IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS S 8-10 KT.
SAT...IFR LIKELY...LIFR POSSIBLE WITH -DZ AND FG. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
337 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS OVERNIGHT SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE
RIDGE INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN
TO SLIDE EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTH BREEZES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
PATCHY STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND ALSO SOUTH AND INTO PORTIONS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES.
REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS
KEEP ALL REDUCED VISIBILITY OUT OF OUR CWA. ON THE OTHER HAND...NAM
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN PESSIMISTIC WITH FOG THE PAST
FEW DAYS (ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NOT PANNED OUT EACH NIGHT). CURRENT
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE LAYERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO FORM. THUS...WHILE IT IS
POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH SOME MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE A DENSE FOG SCENARIO.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE
IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. AGAIN...MOISTURE FIELDS ARE
DEEPER SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES...WHEN LOOKING AT NAM AND GFS
CROSS SECTIONS. THEREFORE...EXPECTING STRATUS OVER KANSAS TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. SO...HOPEFULLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 40S...WITH UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S UNDER A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NOW...ALL
THAT BEING SAID...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 6Z NAM SEEMS TO BE
COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH...AS IT PROPOSES HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR
TOMORROW! EVEN UNDER COMPLETELY CLOUDY SKIES...SEE ABSOLUTELY NO
REASON WHY WE SHOULD REMAIN AT OUR CURRENT 9Z TEMPERATURES ALL
DAY...WITH EVEN LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW MORNING...INHERITED CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND AREAS OF FOG ELSEWHERE.
AGREE THAT LATEST MODEL RUNS DO SHOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LIGHTS WINDS AND VERY DRY MID LEVELS...ALL POINTING TO A
FREEZING DRIZZLE/ DRIZZLE SITUATION. HOWEVER...AGAIN AS WITH THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SEEM TO BE VERY VERY
SHALLOW...NEARLY PAPER THIN ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS ALSO
RETREATING SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND BECOMING EVEN MORE
SHALLOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. SO WHILE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY...CONFIDENCE IN A LARGE WIDESPREAD AREA OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE AND FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH AT ALL.
THEREFORE...REDUCED WORDING TO PATCHY FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
MORNING AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE SOME DRIZZLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. EARLY IN THE MORNING THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH. BY AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP. THE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING TOO FAR AND THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AND WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE
AROUND WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THE TEMPERATURES RISE AS MUCH.
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR
DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY THERE IS AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
IN THE FORECAST BUT WORRY THAT IT COULD BE MORE OF ANOTHER DAY WITH
SOME DRIZZLE. THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM ADVECTION AND EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAINS A CHALLENGE. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN PAST NIGHTS BUT STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND HOW FAST IT MOVES THROUGH
THE PLAINS. THEREFORE STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST. NOT
AS CONCERNED AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION BECAUSE BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE COLDER
AIR IS A LITTLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
THAT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE WENT WITH RAIN OR SNOW FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND NOT CERTAIN
HOW MUCH SNOW THERE WILL BE BUT THE NORTHWEST COULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE COLD AIR TO SEE HOW MUCH
SNOW THERE WILL BE.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD
AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
UPDATED TAFS TO REFLECT SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND POSSIBLE
FOG POTENTIAL. STRATUS REMAINS IN KANSAS AND IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS
WAY NORTH. ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT STRATUS WILL
REACH THE TAF SITES...DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE ALL MENTION AT
THIS TIME. SHOULD IT CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD...EXPECT
LOWERED CEILINGS AROUND 1030Z TO 11Z. SO FAR THERE HAVE NOT BEEN
REDUCED VISIBILITIES UNDER 5SM IN THIS STRATUS BAND.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SALTZMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
215 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY SLOWLY MOVING NOR EASTER WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
REGION. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0645 PM UPDATE...
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS STILL
STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT WEST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AT THIS HOUR SO
WITH THIS UPDATE WE REDUCED POPS, QPF, AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA FOR THIS EVENING AS BANDING WILL BE
WEAKENING BY THE TIME PRECIP MOVES IN.
IN TERMS OF P-TYPE, THE LOWER LEVELS ARE FINALLY
COOLING WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. AS WARMER AIR IS WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR AREAS FARTHER NORTH, PRECIP IS STILL FALLING AS RAIN AROUND
ROME AND SYRACUSE. WE EXPECT THE OVERALL TREND TO BE A CHANGE TO
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE STORM TOTAL GRIDS WERE RERUN BASED ON THESE
LATEST UPDATES AND FOR MOST AREAS THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES. DUE
TO THE SLOWER CHANGE OVER AND SLOWER WESTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP,
AMOUNTS WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR LUZERNE AND STEUBEN COUNTIES.
1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES HAS DROPPED DOWN TO NR 1000MB AS IT SPINS OFF THE JERSEY
SHORE. MODERATE TO HVY PCPN IS ONGOING ACRS ERN HALF OF CWA AS
EXPECTED BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES ARE STILL RIGHT AT OR BLO FRZG AS OF 17Z WITH -FZRA
FALLING AT THESE LOCATIONS AND HEARING ABOUT NUMEROUS MOTOR VEHICLE
ACCIDENTS.
PCPN HAS ESSENTIALLY HIT A BRICK WALL AT THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO MV MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS
NOW UNTIL AFT 00Z. DEFORMATION BAND THAT THE MODELS WERE INSISTENT
WUD ROTATE WEST THRU THE EVNG HRS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE A FRACTURED
BAND OF MIXED PCPN.
H9 TEMPS PER LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATING BLYR TEMPS RMNG ISOTHERMAL
THRU 21Z THIS AFTN AND VRY SLOWLY DROPPING BYND THIS TIME. EXPECT A
MIXED BAG THRU BULK OF THE OVRNGT FOR SXNS EAST OF I-81 WITH CLD AIR
BEING PULLED IN FM THE WEST. ANOTHER WV FCST TO MV THRU NRN ZONES
AFT 06Z TONIGHT AND WITH MOISTURE FM LK ADDED IN EXPECT SVRL INCHES
OF SNOW TO FALL ACRS THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
THRU THE OVRNGT IS NOW LOOKING TO BE MEAGER WITH A GNRL INCH OR TWO
ACRS THE BULK OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY 2-4 INCHES IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SUSQUEHANNA REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CYCLONE BECOMES STACKED THIS PERIOD AND SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD. PERSISTENT
NW FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING NOREASTER WILL KEEP SYNOPTIC SNOW
SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFEECT ACTIVITY OVER OUR COUNTIES THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE AN
ISSUE, SO WILL STICK TO ONLY 2-3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN PERSISTENT
ACTIVITY OVER THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXTEND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN NY ON FRIDAY. NNW WILL PERSIST,
SO THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN FA. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN FA WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN FAIR
WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WOBBLING AROUND OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA
IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR PERIODS OF SNOW WRAPPING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS NY AND
FAR NORTHERN PA WITH HIGH CHANCE DONE AROUND I-80 FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND -6 TO -8 WITH
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE NNW FLOW. THIS PATTERN IS
USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS
OUR AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS NY STATE WITH MANY AREAS PROBABLY STILL
GETTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW.
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT
SCATTERED SNOW SHWOERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW HAS KEPT
CONDITIONS AT MVFR OR VFR AT SEVERAL TERMINALS. HOWEVER COLDER AIR
IS WORKING INTO THE REGION, AND THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS WILL
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
THE NEXT 8 TO 16 HOURS.
THE MOST PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT BGM AND ITH, WHERE
CEILINGS WILL HOLD AT 200 TO 600 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH VISIBILITIES FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 3/4SM AND 2SM.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT/THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHSN. BETTER CHC IN NY.
SAT/SUN...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-023-025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ022-024-
062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF/PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP/MSE
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1200 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY SLOWLY MOVING NOR EASTER WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
REGION. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
0645 PM UPDATE...
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS STILL
STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT WEST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AT THIS HOUR SO
WITH THIS UPDATE WE REDUCED POPS, QPF, AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA FOR THIS EVENING AS BANDING WILL BE
WEAKENING BY THE TIME PRECIP MOVES IN.
IN TERMS OF P-TYPE, THE LOWER LEVELS ARE FINALLY
COOLING WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. AS WARMER AIR IS WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR AREAS FARTHER NORTH, PRECIP IS STILL FALLING AS RAIN AROUND
ROME AND SYRACUSE. WE EXPECT THE OVERALL TREND TO BE A CHANGE TO
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE STORM TOTAL GRIDS WERE RERUN BASED ON THESE
LATEST UPDATES AND FOR MOST AREAS THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES. DUE
TO THE SLOWER CHANGE OVER AND SLOWER WESTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP,
AMOUNTS WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR LUZERNE AND STEUBEN COUNTIES.
1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES HAS DROPPED DOWN TO NR 1000MB AS IT SPINS OFF THE JERSEY
SHORE. MODERATE TO HVY PCPN IS ONGOING ACRS ERN HALF OF CWA AS
EXPECTED BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES ARE STILL RIGHT AT OR BLO FRZG AS OF 17Z WITH -FZRA
FALLING AT THESE LOCATIONS AND HEARING ABOUT NUMEROUS MOTOR VEHICLE
ACCIDENTS.
PCPN HAS ESSENTIALLY HIT A BRICK WALL AT THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO MV MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS
NOW UNTIL AFT 00Z. DEFORMATION BAND THAT THE MODELS WERE INSISTENT
WUD ROTATE WEST THRU THE EVNG HRS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE A FRACTURED
BAND OF MIXED PCPN.
H9 TEMPS PER LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATING BLYR TEMPS RMNG ISOTHERMAL
THRU 21Z THIS AFTN AND VRY SLOWLY DROPPING BYND THIS TIME. EXPECT A
MIXED BAG THRU BULK OF THE OVRNGT FOR SXNS EAST OF I-81 WITH CLD AIR
BEING PULLED IN FM THE WEST. ANOTHER WV FCST TO MV THRU NRN ZONES
AFT 06Z TONIGHT AND WITH MOISTURE FM LK ADDED IN EXPECT SVRL INCHES
OF SNOW TO FALL ACRS THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
THRU THE OVRNGT IS NOW LOOKING TO BE MEAGER WITH A GNRL INCH OR TWO
ACRS THE BULK OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY 2-4 INCHES IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SUSQUEHANNA REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
315 PM UPDATE...
MOISTURE WL CONTINUE TO WRAP-ARND THE NOR`EASTER THRU THE SHORT
TERM. DEFORMATION BAND FINALLY GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER CURRENTLY
AND WL ROTATE INTO THE FINGER LKS BY MORNING. ADDED MOISTURE OFF
OF THE LKS WL LKLY BRING 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW ACRS FINGER LKS AND
SUSQUEHANNA REGION DRG THE DAY WED THO AMNTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER, THUS HV OPTED TO KEEP WARNINGS GOING FOR CNTRL NY.
SYSTEM WL BCM VERTICALLY STACKED DRG THE DAY TOMORROW AND WITH NW
FLOW MVG DOWN ACRS THE LKS EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.
ONLY QUESTION WL BE IS IF DRY SLOT WL MV IN FM THE EAST AND
DENDRITE ZONE WL LOSE MOISTURE DRG THE AFTN HRS BUT WL ALLOW
LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON DROPPING HEADLINES EARLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WOBBLING AROUND OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA
IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR PERIODS OF SNOW WRAPPING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS NY AND
FAR NORTHERN PA WITH HIGH CHANCE DONE AROUND I-80 FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND -6 TO -8 WITH
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE NNW FLOW. THIS PATTERN IS
USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS
OUR AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS NY STATE WITH MANY AREAS PROBABLY STILL
GETTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW.
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT
SCATTERED SNOW SHWOERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW HAS KEPT
CONDITIONS AT MVFR OR VFR AT SEVERAL TERMINALS. HOWEVER COLDER AIR
IS WORKING INTO THE REGION, AND THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS WILL
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
THE NEXT 8 TO 16 HOURS.
THE MOST PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT BGM AND ITH, WHERE
CEILINGS WILL HOLD AT 200 TO 600 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH VISIBILITIES FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 3/4SM AND 2SM.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT/THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHSN. BETTER CHC IN NY.
SAT/SUN...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-023-025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ022-024-
062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF/PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...DJP/MSE
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
314 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MID/UPPER DISTURBANCES IN A MOIST NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BREAKS UP THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM TENNESSEE VALLEY TO END WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLDER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FILTER DOWN FROM THE NORTH. RAP MODEL
HAS ABOUT A MINUS 5 C AT 850 MB FOR 08Z...AND ABOUT MINUS 8C BY 21Z
TODAY.
THE FORECAST SOUNDING OFF THE NAM SHOWS THE TOP OF THE
MOIST LAYER AROUND 5 THSD FT MSL FOR THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THAT
TOP LOWERS BELOW 3 THSD FT MSL TONIGHT. AS IT GETS COLDER
ALOFT...THE BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPS MANAGES TO STAY NEAR THE TOP
OF THAT SHRINKING MOIST LAYER THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO WEAK CHANNELED
500 MB VORT MAXIMUMS DROPPING SE THROUGH OUR VCNTY TODAY...AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW NEAR NEW YORK CITY. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE OUR POPS MUCH HIGHER THAN MODEL MOS GUIDANCE IN THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE COUNTIES - EVEN THOUGH FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS. SPECIFIC HOURLY
POPS BECOME TOUGHER TO FIGURE AS YOU VENTURE WEST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER COUNTIES.
IN THE LOW CEILINGS...DID INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES AOB
32 DEGS.
NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN MAY NOT
GO ABOVE THEIR 12Z TEMPERATURE DURING THE DAY.
LIKED OUR PREVIOUS IDEA OF KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ABOVE MOST MOS GUIDANCE...SINCE WE ARE FORECASTING THE CEILINGS TO
HOLD. COLDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE BEST CHANCE OF PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE.
FOR THIS CURRENT NIGHT(TUESDAY NIGHT)...TODAY...AND TONIGHT...HAVE A
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR EACH OF THOSE PERIODS
ACROSS OUR HIGH COUNTRY...MOSTLY AOB 3500 FEET. SO NOTHING TO WRITE
HOME ABOUT FOR THESE DARK DAYS OF DECEMBER. OF COURSE...WITH THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES...UNTREATED ROADS COULD EASILY BECOME SLIPPERY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT...IN THE GRIPS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL
FINALLY BEGIN MOVING OUT SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE LOW TO OUR NE...WILL BE IN
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WOULD TYPICALLY PROVIDE
DECENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. HAVE POPS DECREASING THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES
AWAY FROM CWA. HAVE A POP MINIMUM THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE
INCREASING SOME IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATES
AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM. ANOTHER IMPULSE SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...SO INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. NAM TRIES TO BRING A SLUG OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRIER. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFERENCE
IS IN THE PLACEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH. NAM STILL HAS IT OVER THE LOWER
OHIO RIVER VALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FARTHER
EAST. WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDING A
COUPLE DEGREES TO HIGHS EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL...DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LONG
TERM...AS UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A SYSTEM
APPROACHES LATE IN THE LONG TERM...SPREADING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE AREA...AND BRINGING IN COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED 06Z TO 12Z AS LOW
LEVELS TURN COLDER AND CEILINGS LOWER.
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND HAVE CEILINGS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 THSD IN THE
OHIO VALLEY OF SE OHIO AND NE KY...LOWERING EAST...WITH WIDESPREAD
CEILINGS AOB 1 THSD FT OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WITH HIGHER RIDGES
OBSCURED.
WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MOSTLY
BLO 3 MILES IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING KBKW
VCNTY ON EITHER SIDE OF DAWN WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MOSTLY 14Z TO 22Z TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY VARY IN WV CAUSING MORE FLUCTUATION IN VSBY THAN
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 12/10/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN CEILINGS AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE EVAPORATING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
130 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE MIDWEST WILL BRING NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND AND
THE HIGH WILL BE MORE FIRMLY SETTLED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TO
SHIFT WINDS IN THE OHIO VALLEY MORE WESTERLY. AS THE LOW EJECTS
NORTHEAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND LATEST RAP ARE
INDICATING THAT THE SURFACE TO 2000 FOOT LAYER WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME LESS AND LESS SATURATED FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK. IN THE LOW LEVEL
CAA PATTERN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT BUT BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM READINGS...THIS APPEARS TO
BE BEING MODIFIED SOMEWHAT BY THE CLOUD COVER. MOST OF THE LATEST
HI RES MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
AROUND INTERSTATE 71 BY ABOUT 6 AM BUT THINK THIS MAY BE A TAD
FAST. AT ANY RATE...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY DIP BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE
DRIZZLE TAPERS OFF. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...DO NOT THINK PCPN
WOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH OR THE THE TIME PERIOD LONG ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN ICING ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LARGER SYNOPTIC
PRESSURE CENTERS SHIFT. COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL SLACKEN AND THE
THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL TURN OFF QUICKLY BEFORE DAYLIGHT
ENDS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 30S WITH LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING
IN THE LOWER 20S. THE NORTHWEST WINDS KEEPING UP SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALLS THAT WOULD OCCUR IF A
RADIATIONAL COOLING PATTERN WERE EVIDENT.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE MIDWEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
ACTUALLY BE WARMING AND PM LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL ONLY DROP TO
THE UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES AND OHIO VALLEY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TO INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE STACKED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
VERY SLOWLY...WITH ITS INFLUENCE STILL BEING FELT AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN OHIO ON FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE EASTWARD /
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL NOT BE FAST (FAILING TO
REALLY CLEAR THE COAST UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK)...THE INFLUENCE OF
TROUGHING WILL DIMINISH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY...ALLOWING
FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL
CENTER OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AT 925MB/850MB IS FORECAST
TO FLOW NORTH IN A CLOCKWISE MANNER AROUND THE RIDGING...BUT IT NOW
APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL NEAR-SURFACE SATURATION (SHALLOW AS IT
MAY BE) COULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATER ON SUNDAY. THIS MAKES FOR A RELATIVELY CALM FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND SOME PERIODS OF SUN
EXPECTED.
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...WITH THE RIDGE MOVING ONLY
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. WITH A STRONGER RIDGE...MODELS HAVE ALSO
SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WHICH IS WHERE ATTENTION WILL TURN FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM THIS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN TEXAS...AND AS ANOTHER
ASSOCIATED ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST...THE MODEL TREND FOR THIS
FEATURE HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK (AS THE LOW
WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND COASTAL
STATES). THE NORTHERN TREND PUTS THE OHIO VALLEY MORE DIRECTLY IN
THE PATH...BUT THE WEAKENING TREND MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LATEST 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS.
WHERE CAUTION IN THE FORECAST SPECIFICS IS ADVISED WOULD BE THE FACT
THAT GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING A WIDE SPREAD IN
STRENGTH/TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH...LEADING TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS BEYOND MONDAY. WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AT AROUND THE SAME
TIME...SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCLUDED. WHENEVER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...THE BRIEF WARM-UP WILL AT LEAST BE
TEMPORARILY HALTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE ELONGATED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE EAST COAST WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW ON ITS WEST SIDE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE TO CONTINUE TODAY AS THE MID LEVEL
LOW LIFTS NE TO PSN CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. LOW LEVEL CAA
WITH 8H THERMAL TROF THIS MORNING. IR SATL IMGRY SHOWS EXTENSIVE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THRU THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS THRU THE EARLY MORNING IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA
PATTERN. ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL LIFT A LTL AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT MVFR
TO CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL PUSH SOME DRIER AIR INTO REGION WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N/NW TODAY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
500 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENSIVE PLUME OF DEEPENING MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST
SIDE OF A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BRING CLOUDY AND
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SNOW TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
AN ADDITIONAL FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
OCCASIONAL LIGHTER SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF THE STATE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND
AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM
THE EASTERN GLAKES AND HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...SOUTH TO THE
CAROLINA COAST. A FEW SPOKES OF ENERGY LIFTING NW AND WEST AROUND
THIS TROUGH WILL HELP IT TO TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEG TILT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCREASING THE TAP OF MOISTURE OFF THE WRN
ATLANTIC...WHILE ALSO LEADING TO A DEEP AND WELL-ALIGNED/MOIST
NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE GLAKES...AND AIMED AT THE NW SNOWBELT AND
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
WEAK TO MDT ECHOES SEE ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC WILL EXPAND A BIT TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS
OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AT 09Z INCREASING A TAD IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE DAY TODAY.
TRIMMED A FEW MID SUSQ VALLEY COUNTIES OUT OF THE PRESENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...THAT RUNS UNTIL 17Z INVOF OF KIPT AND POINTS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST.
CLOUDY SKIES AND INCREASINGLY COLD ADVECTION AT LLVLS VIA A GUSTY
NW WIND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY FALLING
ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENN.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW TO SVRL DEG F BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
DECEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SHORT TO MID RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THE POSITION
AND TRACK OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT WILL SLOWLY
PIVOT/WOBBLE NE ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THE MAIN ACTION TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST WHERE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL
FALL...ADDING ANOTHER FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OVER THIS FAIRLY LONG
TIME SPAN. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OVER ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD DON/T
REALLY GET OVER 3 INCHES...SO NO ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ATTM.
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION...EXPECT TO SEE FLURRIES MUCH OF THE TIME WITH OCNL LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. 24 HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A COATING TO INCH ARE
LIKELY TO THE SE OF THE I-99/RT 80/220 CORRIDOR...WHHILE AROUND 2
INCHES COULD OCCUR RIGHT ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE PLATEAU.
WILL HAVE TO CLOSLY WATCH THE FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AND LES AREAS OF
NW PENN...AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 219 WHERE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED MINIMAL ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR
NOW...WE/LL LET THE FORECAST AND POINT AND CLICK SNOW TOTALS SPEAK
FOR THEMSELVES WITH NO ADDIITONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
EXPECTEDTO BE ISSUED FOR THE SECOND THROUGH 4TH PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST BEFORE LATE MORNING AT THE EARLIEST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO
AROUND 30 IN THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN SOUTHERN PA.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 20S IN
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WITH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER ONCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CUTS OFF EARLY FRIDAY...THE
PRECIP WILL FADE WITH ONLY THE NW MTNS STILL RECEIVING LIGHT
SNOWFALL.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
UPPER LOW TO NUDGE EASTWARD AND ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. ENOUGH TO HAVE US BEGINNING TO ENJOY THE
INFLUENCE OF SOME RIDGING AND FAIRER CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN MA AT 10/06Z IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURS AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES. THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
PUSH EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRI/SAT.
RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LACKLUSTER WRAP AROUND
BAND OF MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW NEAR AVP-LNS
LINE. HI RES HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND
FIZZLES OUT OR SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
WOULD FAVOR TWO AREAS OF WRAP-AROUND SNOW SETTING UP OVER NERN PA
AND OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
PCPN/SNOW DETAILS IS LOW. BETTER CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH RELATIVELY
STABLE FLGT CATS: IFR AND LIFR IN A VERY GOOD BET AT JST/BFD WITH
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
SOUNDINGS WOULD FAVOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZDZ AT BFD/JST BEFORE
CHANGING TO -SN. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WINDS
FROM 330-300 DEG. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SUSTAINED SFC WNDS 15-20KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW NORTH/WEST. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL
AND EAST. STRONG N-NW WINDS 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
FRI...MVFR/IFR IN -SHSN NORTH/WEST. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.
SAT...MVFR CIGS/-SHSN EARLY WEST...BCMG VFR.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ037-041-
042-053-058.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/LA CORTE
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
142 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER UNSETTLED INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER MY EASTERN COUNTIES
PRODUCING STOPS AND STARTS OF LIGHT RAINFALL LATE THIS EVENING.
SFC LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WILL HELP DRAW COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...AS SHARP H5 TROF AXIS DEEPENS AND
TRANSLATES EASTWARD TO THE PA/NJ BORDER BY 12Z WED.
STILL ANTICIPATE A CHANGEOVER AND AN INVIGORATED DEFORMATION ZONE
OVER MY EASTERN COUNTIES A FEW HOURS PAST MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...SO CURRENT ADVISORIES WILL BE HELD ONTO FOR NOW.
ELSEWHERE...LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR FROM
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER WITH ANY ACCUMS
LESS THAN ONE INCH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SHORT TO MID RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THE POSITION
AND TRACK OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT`S STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH TOTAL
PRECIP WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM AS THE MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE. THE SOLUTION FALLS
BETWEEN THE ECMWF THAT TARGETS THE NORTH- CENTRAL AND NWRN ZONES
THROUGH WED INTO THURSDAY.THE GFS SHOWS ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP WRAPPING BACK. THE NAM AND SREF APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY GOOD
COMPROMISES...DISPLAYING A WELL- DEFINED DRY SLOT SURGING NORTH
THROUGH NJ AND FAR ERN PENN LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY /WITH A
LARGE AREA OF DEFORMATION LIGHT- MDT SNOW ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY
AND SURROUND COUNTIES. ALSO...GIVEN THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND A PERSISTENT LLJ...THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WHILE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY AROUND -8C...THERE ISN`T A HUGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL WITH
LAKE TEMPS...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH...AND WITH THE UPSLOPE
FLOW TO INCREASE SNOWFALL. THIS SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE LAURELS AND
ALLEGHENIES.
HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY BUT ABOUT A 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ABOUT 1 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE LAURELS.
MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT QPF THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THE ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
LATER SHIFTS WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER WINTER WEATHER OR LES
ADVISORIES FOR BOTH THE SYNOPTIC DEFORMATION SNOW THROUGH NW
CENTRAL PA...AND LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWS ACROSS
THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS IN THE BROAD/DEEP AND MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW JUST TO THE WEST OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30F ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WITH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER ONCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CUTS OFF EARLY FRIDAY...THE
PRECIP WILL FADE WITH ONLY THE NW MTNS STILL RECEIVING LIGHT
SNOWFALL.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
UPPER LOW TO NUDGE EASTWARD AND ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. ENOUGH TO HAVE US BEGINNING TO ENJOY THE
INFLUENCE OF SOME RIDGING AND FAIRER CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN MA AT 10/06Z IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURS AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES. THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
PUSH EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRI/SAT.
RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LACKLUSTER WRAP AROUND
BAND OF MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW NEAR AVP-LNS
LINE. HI RES HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND
FIZZLES OUT OR SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
WOULD FAVOR TWO AREAS OF WRAP-AROUND SNOW SETTING UP OVER NERN PA
AND OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
PCPN/SNOW DETAILS IS LOW. BETTER CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH RELATIVELY
STABLE FLGT CATS: IFR AND LIFR IN A VERY GOOD BET AT JST/BFD WITH
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
SOUNDINGS WOULD FAVOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZDZ AT BFD/JST BEFORE
CHANGING TO -SN. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WINDS
FROM 330-300 DEG. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SUSTAINED SFC WNDS 15-20KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW NORTH/WEST. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL
AND EAST. STRONG N-NW WINDS 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
FRI...MVFR/IFR IN -SHSN NORTH/WEST. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.
SAT...MVFR CIGS/-SHSN EARLY WEST...BCMG VFR.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ037-041-
042-046-051>053-058.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
137 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER UNSETTLED INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER MY EASTERN COUNTIES
PRODUCING STOPS AND STARTS OF LIGHT RAINFALL LATE THIS EVENING.
SFC LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WILL HELP DRAW COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...AS SHARP H5 TROF AXIS DEEPENS AND
TRANSLATES EASTWARD TO THE PA/NJ BORDER BY 12Z WED.
STILL ANTICIPATE A CHANGEOVER AND AN INVIGORATED DEFORMATION ZONE
OVER MY EASTERN COUNTIES A FEW HOURS PAST MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...SO CURRENT ADVISORIES WILL BE HELD ONTO FOR NOW.
ELSEWHERE...LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR FROM
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER WITH ANY ACCUMS
LESS THAN ONE INCH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SHORT TO MID RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THE POSITION
AND TRACK OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT`S STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH TOTAL
PRECIP WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM AS THE MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE. THE SOLUTION FALLS
BETWEEN THE ECMWF THAT TARGETS THE NORTH- CENTRAL AND NWRN ZONES
THROUGH WED INTO THURSDAY.THE GFS SHOWS ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP WRAPPING BACK. THE NAM AND SREF APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY GOOD
COMPROMISES...DISPLAYING A WELL- DEFINED DRY SLOT SURGING NORTH
THROUGH NJ AND FAR ERN PENN LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY /WITH A
LARGE AREA OF DEFORMATION LIGHT- MDT SNOW ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY
AND SURROUND COUNTIES. ALSO...GIVEN THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND A PERSISTENT LLJ...THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WHILE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY AROUND -8C...THERE ISN`T A HUGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL WITH
LAKE TEMPS...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH...AND WITH THE UPSLOPE
FLOW TO INCREASE SNOWFALL. THIS SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE LAURELS AND
ALLEGHENIES.
HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY BUT ABOUT A 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ABOUT 1 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE LAURELS.
MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT QPF THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THE ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
LATER SHIFTS WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER WINTER WEATHER OR LES
ADVISORIES FOR BOTH THE SYNOPTIC DEFORMATION SNOW THROUGH NW
CENTRAL PA...AND LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWS ACROSS
THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS IN THE BROAD/DEEP AND MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW JUST TO THE WEST OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30F ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WITH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER ONCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CUTS OFF EARLY FRIDAY...THE
PRECIP WILL FADE WITH ONLY THE NW MTNS STILL RECEIVING LIGHT
SNOWFALL.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
UPPER LOW TO NUDGE EASTWARD AND ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. ENOUGH TO HAVE US BEGINNING TO ENJOY THE
INFLUENCE OF SOME RIDGING AND FAIRER CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN MA AT 10/06Z IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURS AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES. THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
PUSH EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRI/SAT.
RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LACKLUSTER WRAP AROUND
BAND OF MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW NEAR AVP-LNS
LINE. HI RES HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND
FIZZLES OUT OR SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
WOULD FAVOR TWO AREAS OF WRAP-AROUND SNOW SETTING UP OVER NERN PA
AND OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
PCPN/SNOW DETAILS IS LOW. BETTER CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH RELATIVELY
STABLE FLGT CATS: IFR AND LIFR A VERY GOOD BET AT JST/BFD WITH
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES. THE
OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WINDS FROM 330-300 DEG.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SUSTAINED SFC WNDS 15-20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW NORTH/WEST. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL
AND EAST. STRONG N-NW WINDS 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
FRI...MVFR/IFR IN -SHSN NORTH/WEST. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.
SAT...MVFR CIGS/-SHSN EARLY WEST...BCMG VFR.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ037-041-
042-046-051>053-058.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1046 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON AVAILABLE 4KM HRRR AND TTU MODELS AS WELL AS
NEW SYNOPTIC MODEL DATA...AM GOING TO DELAY THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATER IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. APPEARS BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH 11/00Z WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS (AND MAINLY NORTH
OF TERMINALS)...SO AM RELUCTANT TO GO AND MORE THAN PROB30 OVER
THE EASTERN TERMINALS. AT KLRD...LOOKS LIKE FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF TERMINAL...BUT WILL HAVE A
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON -RA WITH ISENTROPIC PATTERN DEVELOPING (AND
GETS BETTER IN THE EVENING). BESIDES THE RAINFALL...WILL ALSO
DELAY CIGS DECREASING TO MVFR AT KLRD (NOT UNTIL 19Z) AND KALI
(NOT UNTIL 11/02Z). BELIEVE CIGS WILL STAY ABOVE MVFR AT KVCT AND
KCRP SINCE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. COULD
HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT KLRD AND KALI (WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE) WHICH WILL HELP BRING CIGS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS.
OVERALL...WIND FORECAST FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 00Z TERMINAL FORECAST
ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY FALL DURING THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR (VFR CIGS) THROUGH
THE TERMINAL FORECAST OUTSIDE THE AREAS WHERE RAIN MIGHT OCCUR.
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KLRD...WHERE AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP AOB 19Z. CONCERNING FOG...THINK MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PRECLUDE MOST FOG ISSUES...BUT DID KEEP THE TEMPO MVFR BR WHERE
FOG WAS ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS TERMINAL FORECAST PACKAGE.
CONCERNING RAIN...LOOKS LIKE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN TAFS (PROB30)...WITH TEMPOS IN THE
AFTERNOON AT KLRD (BUT ALSO DID INCLUDE PROB30 AT KLRD DURING THE
MORNING HOURS). MAINLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AGAIN (E OR SE FOR MOST
PART)...THEN SE ON WEDNESDAY BUT MAINLY LESS THAN 11 KNOTS (BIT
HIGHER AT KCRP).
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...LIGHT EAST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO A SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES MORE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO IS PROGGED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. AS WEAK LIFT MOVES OVER THE
REGION MODELS INDICATE INCREASING PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS (AROUND 1.4 INCHES) ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/RAIN...DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST TOMORROW
MORNING AND SPREADING FURTHER EAST THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A BROAD BAGGY MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THU WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PROGD TO TRACK ACROSS THE CWA. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE SHORT
WAVE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA`S ON THU. THEREFORE
EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHC FARTHER S INTO THE COASTAL BEND. WEAK
RIDGING FRI-SAT WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY 80...ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND ON
SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO FCST A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BUT ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH STRENGTH AND POSITION WHICH WILL
DETERMINE PRECIP CHCS FOR S TX. LATEST RUNS ARE A TAD FARTHER N
WHICH WILL KEEP THE STRONGER STORMS N AND NE OF THE CWA. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COLD FRONT THRU S TX LATE SUN OR MON WHICH
WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR PRECIP. THE GFS IS ALSO
SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY AHD OF THE BDRY. THEREFORE KEPT A CHC FOR
TSRA`S ON SUN THEN SHOW THE TREND OF PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
THROUGH MON. WITH THIS SCENARIO...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
FILTER INTO S TX MON THROUGH TUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 53 70 60 73 60 / 10 20 10 20 10
VICTORIA 48 68 55 70 54 / 10 20 20 20 10
LAREDO 55 70 60 76 60 / 10 40 20 10 10
ALICE 54 71 59 74 59 / 10 30 10 20 10
ROCKPORT 55 70 59 71 60 / 10 10 10 20 10
COTULLA 55 67 57 74 59 / 10 40 30 20 10
KINGSVILLE 54 72 60 74 60 / 10 20 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 56 70 62 72 62 / 10 10 10 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 AM PST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH DENSE FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THROUGH AROUND NOON. A STRONG STORM IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG WILL BE THE FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 8 TO 12
HOURS ACROSS THE VALLEY...AS MOST LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER MILE. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z. THE DENSE FOG IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DISSIPATING FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z...WITH DENSE FOG LINGERING
IN KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES EVEN INTO 21Z. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST AND DRIVE CAREFULLY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY FORECAST...AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE ENTIRE
REGION. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORM...WITH THE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATING
925 MB WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 55 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. IN GENERAL...FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...WHILE THE
SOUTHERN HALF WILL BE IMPACTED BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY. SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY NEAR THE GRAPEVINE MAY SEE WIND GUSTS
OVER 60 KTS. MUCH OF THE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
30 AND 45 KTS. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
STRONG WINDS.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS...RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION WILL
BEGIN OVER MERCED/MARIPOSA COUNTIES AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT MORE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO FRESNO COUNTY BY THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO KERN COUNTY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RES
ARW...NMM..AND NAM ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT TIMING...ADDING
TO FORECAST CONFIDENCE. IN GENERAL...THE VALLEY WILL SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A HALF INCH OF RAIN TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. THE FOOTHILLS WILL
SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 2.5 INCHES. LASTLY...WITH THIS STORM...SNOW
LEVELS WILL DROP FROM AROUND 8000 FEET ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO
6000 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 FEET...WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN MARIPOSA AND TUOLUMNE
COUNTIES SEEING SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 2.5 FEET. A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING...AN UNSTABLE COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE CAPE VALUES PEAK
BETWEEN 300 AND 500 J/KG.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
YET ANOTHER...LESS POWERFUL...STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD
CALIFORNIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS STORM CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY STORM EXITS THE REGION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH RES AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AS WELL AS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WILL BE THE MOST
POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM THE AREA HAS SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL, PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST VERY CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...DENSE FOG PRODUCING LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 20Z. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS FOG GRADUALLY DECREASES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
.END..
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 10 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
KERN COUNTY. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING
UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED
AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 12-10 74:1939 38:1972 58:1937 26:1951
KFAT 12-11 69:1933 39:1932 56:1937 25:1972
KFAT 12-12 69:1969 40:1932 55:1929 18:1932
KBFL 12-10 85:1912 41:1972 53:1937 24:1923
KBFL 12-11 81:1912 35:1932 58:1937 24:1923
KBFL 12-12 75:1913 43:1932 53:1893 20:1901
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE CAZ096-097.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
CAZ093-096.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
CAZ089>095.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY CAZ089>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...RILEY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
359 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014
SHOULD NOT SEE A REPEAT OF THE CHILLY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS
PREVALENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE YESTERDAY...AT LEAST NOT THIS
MORNING. AS WE SAW YESTERDAY EVEN HIGH ALTITUDE CIRRUS CLOUDS CAN
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE WITH THE MIDDAY SUN ANGLE
AS LOW AS IT IS THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR TODAY...SKIES OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO SHOULD START OUT PRETTY MUCH CLOUD-
FREE ALLOWING FOR A STEADY WARMUP THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE STRONG SFC BASED INVERSION ON THE PLAINS DISSIPATING BY
AROUND 17Z. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS...THE HAZY CONDITIONS...A HOLD OVER
FROM THE POOR MIXING CONDITIONS YESTERDAY...SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS. BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS QUITE
DRY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE PLAINS CURRENTLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS (F). FOOTHILL AIR IS EVEN DRIER WITH
DEWPTS AS LOW AS MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 F...AND THAT/S WITHOUT THE
DRYING EFFECTS OF A CHINOOK WIND. THIS WILL AIDE IN THE WARMUP
THIS MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT BATCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOWS
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST.
CROSS SECTIONS DO NOT INDICATE A MTN WAVE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
TODAY. HOWEVER THE RAP AND NAM INDICATE THE FORMATION OF A MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK SIMILAR TO A MTN WAVE CLOUD AFTER 18Z...THOUGH
PERHAPS NOT AS THICK. CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOW A LAYER OF CIRRUS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT TEMPS AGAIN...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER TODAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S ON THE
PLAINS AND 40S/LOWER 50S ACRS THE HIGH COUNTRY. WITH THE PROSPECT
OF LIGHT WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TODAY...WILL
CAUTIOUSLY GO WITH THEM.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER COLORADO...
BRINGING WITH IT DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT. SHOULD SEE SKIES
CLEARING THIS EVENING...AND SIGNS OF A MTN WAVE FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BREEZING DOWNSLOPE WINDS A PRODUCT OF
THIS MTN WAVE WILL PRODUCE WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE PLAINS...
ESPLY ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO ON THURSDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON FRIDAY AS MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW
TURNS SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 60S BY
FRIDAY.
MAIN CONCERN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WHICH TAKES AIM
ON COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SOME COOLING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. LATEST GFS/EUROPEAN 00Z RUNS SHOW THE UPPER TROF OVER UTAH
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
AND INTO A CLOSED LOW FORMING NEAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 18Z
SUNDAY. THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS IN A
MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
OVER EAST SLOPES AND PLAINS OF COLORADO.
GIVEN THE RECENT STORM TRACK CHANGES IN THE MODELS NOT
READY TO BITE TOO HARD YET. HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TO
RAISE POPS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. IF THIS TRACK
PERSISTS...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP IN THE ORDER OF 3 TO 6
INCHES BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. WITH THE STRONG NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STORM TRACK...HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD FAVOR
THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION. QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS ARE ALSO
FAIRLY MODEST WITH UPWARD ASCENT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO. SINCE WE ARE STILL 5 DAYS OUT...MANY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS
MAY STILL PLAY OUT. GIVEN CURRENT MODEL TRACK...SNOW WOULD
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING EXPECTED FILL WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS EXTENSIVE AS
YESTERDAY AND ONCE AGAIN NO PRECIP FROM THEM. LOOK FOR DRAINAGE
WINDS OF 7-15KTS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLEBY
LATE MORNING...THEN LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...SKIES WILL BECOME TO CLEAR WITH WINDS ASSUMING THEIR
TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN. HOWEVER...KBJC MAY SEE GUSTY WEST WINDS
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE FORMATION OF A MOUNTAIN WAVE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
627 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS
OF SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO RETURN DRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 627 AM EST...AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
SITUATED NEAR BOSTON. A CLOSED OFF 500 HPA LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER NE PA/NORTHERN NJ.
LOTS OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON BOTH THE IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST AND APPROACHING THE NYC/LONG
ISLAND AREA...AND SOME THESE COLDER AND DEEPER CLOUDS WILL GET
PULLED NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TOWARDS OUR
REGION.
THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME AREAS OF SNOW...PERHAPS MIXING WITH RAIN
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AFFECTING NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE BEST DEFORMATION
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY WEST OF OUR AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. SOME DRIZZLE IS LIKELY OCCURRING IN A FEW AREAS AS
WELL...DUE TO THE LACK OF COLD CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF OUR
AREA. SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S...AND MANY AREAS CONTINUE TO BE
JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER
AROUND...AND SLIDE EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD. WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND PLENTY OF
FORCING DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW/PVA...AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 3KM HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BASICALLY OVERHEAD OUR REGION...ESP FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM/S TROWAL WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF OUR
REGION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO FAR NORTHERN NY...AND OUR
CWA LOOKS TO AVOID THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. STILL...WE CAN EXPECT SOME
ON AND OFF LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOWS BASICALLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...BUT
BOTH THE 03Z SREF AND 00Z GEFS SHOW AROUND 0.60 INCHES LIQUID
EQUIVALENT AT ALBANY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME PRECIP WILL OCCUR TODAY.
P-TYPE WILL GENERALLY BE SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO MUCH
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT THANKS TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME MIXING WITH RAIN/SLEET IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP THIS MORNING...AS MODELS STILL SHOW A
WARM NOSE ALOFT BETWEEN 800-900 HPA...BUT THIS LOOKS TO GO AWAY BY
LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO...IN SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SUCH AS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...THERE COULD
BE SOME RAIN...MAINLY THIS MORNING...DUE TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS. TEMPS TODAY LOOK WARMEST IN THE MORNING HOURS...WITH LOW TO
MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY HOLD STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALL...WITH TEMPS THIS EVENING DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST AREAS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
STEADY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO END BY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THERE
STILL WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VARIABLE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ...AND
CERTAINLY WILL BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT AS WELL. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WON/T BE TOO GREAT...BUT WILL BE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY DUE
TO COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. AN ADDITIONAL 4-8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SCHOHARIE/MOHAWK
VALLEY...WITH 2-6 INCHES FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL
REGION/LAKE GEORGE AND SARATOGA REGION. JUST 2-4 INCHES IS
EXPECTED IN SRN VT/BERKSHIRES DUE TO INITIAL MIXING. ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO WILL FALL FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT DUE TO SOME
MIXING WITH RAIN AS WELL. WITH THIS AMOUNTS IN MIND...WE HAVE
EXTENDED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY...WHICH
IS ALSO WHEN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN/WESTERN
AREAS RUNS UNTIL. BASICALLY...ALL AREAS OUTSIDE THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN BERKSHIRES...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT ARE IN SOME
TYPE OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING SFC LOW NEARBY AS
WELL...AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY WEATHER...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LESS THAN
RECENT DAYS...BUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER...WITH
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL...THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS EVEN STILL A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
FOR BOTH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LOCALIZED...AND MAINLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLY CHILLY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS
IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT...AND UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN...ESPECIALLY
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME...THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER DYNAMIC UPPER SYSTEM WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE
TRANQUIL WEATHER...WITH MORE ZONAL AND SPLIT UPPER FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE THAT HAS SHOWN BETTER SKILL OVER THE LAST MONTH OR SO IS
SUGGESTING THE MORE TRANQUIL ZONAL SPLIT FLOW. SO...JUST PUTTING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATER TUESDAY UNTIL
THE LONG RANGE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER.
HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...AGAIN...
WITH VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL WARMING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE HEAVIER AND STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...WHILE LIGHTER PATCHIER LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW SNOW
FLAKES ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM JUST NORTH OF KPOU THROUGH KALB AND
KGFL. BASED ON THE CURRENT AND FORECASTED THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THE PATCHY LIGHTER INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION...JUST SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ABOUT 16Z...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN FROM TIME TO TIME. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER BETWEEN LOW MVFR AND IFR...ESPECIALLY AT
KALB...BUT SOME INTERVALS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE AT KPSF...KGFL AND
KPOU.
NEW PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE REGION
AROUND OR AFTER 16Z...WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIXED AND CONTINUED
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BECOMING A STEADY SNOW AFTER
16Z. ONCE THE STEADIER SNOW BEGINS...CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO IFR
AND VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER AROUND 3SM. THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN TEND TO LIGHTEN AFTER 06Z-10Z...EXCEPT AT
KPSF WHERE THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. WHEN THE SNOW
DECREASES IN INTENSITY AFTER 06Z...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
PREDOMINANTLY BE MVFR.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MID MORNING SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KALB...KPOU AND KPSF EXCEPT AT
KGFL WHERE A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE REGION SAW A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...WHERE OVER AN
INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT OCCURRED. THIS PRECIPITATION LED TO A
LOT OF RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY IN THE HOUSATONIC BASIN. RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE RISEN SEVERAL FEET. MANY SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS
HAVE CRESTED OR ARE JUST ABOUT TO DO SO...WHILE SOME LARGER RIVERS
AND STILL SLOWLY RISING.
CURRENTLY..FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE STILL RIVER AT
BROOKFIELD AND FOR THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AT STEVENSON. THE STILL
RIVER SHOULD BE CRESTING SOON AND WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AT
STEVENSON IS STILL RISING AND IS CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE.
SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE FOR TODAY INTO TOMORROW...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT IN AREAS THAT SAW THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO RECEDE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ041-049-
050-052>054-083-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>040-042-043-047-048-051-058-063-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
635 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
FOG DEVELOPED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ALONG A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS WHICH WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WAS
LOCATED IN EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. HRRR AND RAP WERE SIMILAR AND
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AROUND
1/4 MILE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THIS AXIS WHICH WILL BE LOCATED
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. GIVEN THIS AND THE 2 AM HUGOTON
OBSERVATION WILL GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE THE
MOISTURE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO EARLIER THIS
MORNING, WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
FROM WEST TO EAST. HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD WILL ERODE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE NEAR TERM MODELS. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS, THE RAP AND NAM BOTH AGREE THAT FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL
HAVE MORE SUN THAN SOUTH CENTRAL OR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVE THIS AGREEMENT WILL FAVOR THE WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND GUIDANCE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS WHILE TRENDING
TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE FURTHER EAST.
DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL MARGINAL FOR DRIZZLE LATER
THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 SO AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS
LEAVING MENTION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OUT EARLY TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND AN HIGHER
DEW POINTS BEING LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. BASED ON
THIS FOG ONCE AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
USE THE NAM, NMM, AND ARW AS A FIRST GUESS ON THE LOCATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR DIGHTON TO LIBERAL.
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE, STATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. UPPER 30S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DEW POINTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD
COVER AREAL COVERAGE/TIMING AND TEMPERATURES, BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS MOST LIKELY MAINLY
EARLY THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE AREA, AND LIKELY LINGERING ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON EVEN IF WESTERN
SECTIONS CLEAR OUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. THE STRATUS AND
POTENTIAL FOG AS WELL SHOULD RAPIDLY REDEVELOP EACH EVENING WITH
ELEVATED DEW POINTS IN THE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW MAY
PROVIDE INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH THE DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC
LEAF. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONTINUING TO ALLOW THE WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT TO IMPACT THE DDC FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING, WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF PRESENTS A SOLUTION THAT
ASSUMES THE DRY CONVEREYOR BELT KEEPS THE UPPER BANDED RAIN/SNOW
OVER FARTHER NORTH OVER NRN KS. THE GFS APPEARS MORE AGRESSIVE FOR
A BANDED PRECIPTATION SOLUTION ACROSS OUR AREA. UNCERTAINTY WILL
REMAIN HIGH FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS, HOWEVER 50 TO 60 PECENT
CHANCES FOR RAIN EXISTS SUNDAY WITH RAIN OR SNOW AS WELL INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THIS TYPE 1 EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR FOG AND STRATUS WILL NOT IMPROVE UNTIL
AROUND MID MORNING AND PERHAPS EVEN LATE FOR GENERAL IFR CIELINGS
AS AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEW POINTS AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
EXISTS JUST WEST OF THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 37 55 42 / 0 10 0 10
GCK 50 33 56 37 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 57 35 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 53 36 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 43 32 51 40 / 0 10 0 10
P28 47 39 53 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>064-074>078-085>088.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1047 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
THEN LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...PRECIPITATION SHIELD NOW WARRANTING AT LEAST LIKELY OR
BETTER POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN ALOFT. MOST OF
THIS IS FALLING AS RAIN EXCEPT IN A FEW MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHICH ARE
STILL IN THE LOWER 30S. HAVE KEPT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE
AS AREAS LIKE FRANKLIN AND OXFORD COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS A LACK
OF OBSERVATIONS ARE LIKELY STILL EXPERIENCING A WINTRY MIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST REMAINS A TRICKY ONE...HOWEVER
THINGS ARE MUCH LESS COMPLICATED THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. UPPER LOW PRES IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT INVOF
OF KNYC. THIS HAS FOR THE MOST PART FLOODED...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO...THE AREA WITH WARMTH IN THE MID LEVELS. AT THE
SURFACE...WARMTH HAS ALSO INVADED MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE ONLY
REMAINING SUB- FREEZING HOLDOUTS BEING THE WRN ME MTNS.
EARLY THIS MORNING DRY SLOT HAD PUSHED THRU THE AREA...BRINGING AN
END TO STEADY PCPN AND LEADING TO MORE DZ/FZDZ. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MORNING...HOWEVER IR SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWS COLDER CLOUD
TOPS ENCROACHING FROM THE S...INDICATING THAT THE COLUMN IS
BECOMING SATURATED ONCE MORE. WITH THIS WILL COME ANOTHER ROUND OF
PCPN...AS ELY INFLOW REFIRES OFF THE GULF OF ME. THE DEEPENING
UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS QUEBEC WILL BE THE
MECHANISM BEHIND THIS STRENGTHENING ELY MID LEVEL JET. THE FOCUS
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS WRN ME...THOUGH
INITIALLY NH WILL ALSO GET IN ON PCPN AS IT LIFTS NWD. HIGHEST QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE THE WRN ME MTNS...WHERE THE ELY FLOW LINGERS THE
LONGEST AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES AMOUNTS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES.
EVEN STILL QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR SO FOR THESE
AREAS...AND LESS AS YOU HEAD S AND W. AS SUCH HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLOOD WATCH...AS ONLY NUISANCE AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING SEEMS A
POSSIBILITY WITH THESE QPF AMOUNTS.
AS FOR THE WINTER HEADLINES...I FELT CONFIDENT THAT LOW AND MID
LEVEL WARMTH WILL RESULT IN RNFL FOR ALL BUT THE NRN THIRD OF THE
CWFA. ANY REMAINING WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN DROPPED.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN ARE THE WRN ME MTNS...WHERE TEMPS REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING. IN ADDITION...SFC HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO QUEBEC TODAY. THIS MAY REINVIGORATE THE COLD AIR DAMMING...OR
AT LEAST KEEP THINGS STEADY STATE. THIS PROLONGS THE THREAT OF
SN...PL...AND ZR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM RANGELEY TO JACKMAN SHOW
SHOW A DECENT WARM NOSE NEAR 800 MB FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH THE
COLD AIR MAXIMIZED AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FT. GIVEN THE HEIGHT OF
THE WARM NOSE THAT DEFINITELY BRINGS PL INTO PLAY...WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ICING IN THAT ZONE ABOVE 1000 FT. SREF ZR
PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE PERCENTAGE OF
FROZEN PCPN INCREASING AS HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN
TODAY...INDICATING THE COLUMN MAY TRY AND DYNAMICALLY COOL SOME.
TAKING THIS ALL INTO ACCOUNT I BLENDED THE 10/00Z ECMWF WITH THE
NAM AND CMC REGIONAL TO PRODUCE THERMAL PROFILES. THE RESULTING WX
GRIDS YIELDED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SN/PL WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF
ZR FOR THE WRN ME MTNS. AS A RESULT I HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THESE ZONES...AND BRACKET THEM WITH A
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MAINLY A LIGHT ICING WITH ANY SNWFL. IN THE
END FEEL THAT THIS IS A BETTER RESULT THAN LEAVING WARNINGS UP
FROM HEAVY PCPN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEB GRAPHICS
REPRESENT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. ELY
INFLOW OF MOISTURE WILL BE CUT OFF AND SHUNTED NWD HOWEVER...AND
WE/LL BE LEFT WITH SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER THE LOW CENTER.
HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL
ASSIST IN THE LIFTING PROCESS. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE WORKING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...GRADUALLY CHANGING SHRA TO SHSN AWAY
FROM THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH
ITS MOIST AND UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND
PRODUCING INSTABILITY SNW SHOWERS THU NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE LOW FINALLY DRIFTS FAR ENOUGH E
TO ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING AS A STRONG SFC/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS E.
EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATED WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU MID
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION.
WILL SEE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE ARE ALL TERMINALS THRU THIS MORNING AS
WELL. STEADY PCPN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE S THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
RNFL FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH THE ONLY RISK OF MIXED PCPN AT KHIE
AND KLEB. NELY WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THRU THE MORNING.
GRADUALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THU.
LONG TERM...SOME LINGERING SCT RN/SNW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY PSBLY LOWERING CONDS TO MVFR AT TIMES OTHERWISE VFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AOA 35 KTS. BAYS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO
SCA. EXPECTED WINDS TO DIMINISH ON ALL WATERS TO 25 KTS BEFORE
12Z. SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THRU THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO BELOW SCA CONDS BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE NW FLOW FROM THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 9.7 FT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE /AT PORTLAND/ COMBINED WITH ONSHORE
WINDS AND LARGE OFFSHORE SEAS MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS AT 122 PM TODAY. HIGH SURF
WILL ALSO CAUSE SOME BEACH EROSION.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ007>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-
013.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
551 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
THEN LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WILL LEAVE LIKELY/CAT
POP IN PLACE AS DZ/FZDZ IS STILL WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
DUAL-POL RADAR CONFIRMS THE ASOS OBS...AS IT SUGGESTS LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS ARE WELL CORRELATED NEAR SPHERICAL METEOROLOGICAL
TARGETS...IN OTHER WORDS DZ.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST REMAINS A TRICKY ONE...HOWEVER
THINGS ARE MUCH LESS COMPLICATED THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. UPPER LOW PRES IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT INVOF
OF KNYC. THIS HAS FOR THE MOST PART FLOODED...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO...THE AREA WITH WARMTH IN THE MID LEVELS. AT THE
SURFACE...WARMTH HAS ALSO INVADED MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE ONLY
REMAINING SUB- FREEZING HOLDOUTS BEING THE WRN ME MTNS.
EARLY THIS MORNING DRY SLOT HAD PUSHED THRU THE AREA...BRINGING AN
END TO STEADY PCPN AND LEADING TO MORE DZ/FZDZ. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MORNING...HOWEVER IR SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWS COLDER CLOUD
TOPS ENCROACHING FROM THE S...INDICATING THAT THE COLUMN IS
BECOMING SATURATED ONCE MORE. WITH THIS WILL COME ANOTHER ROUND OF
PCPN...AS ELY INFLOW REFIRES OFF THE GULF OF ME. THE DEEPENING
UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS QUEBEC WILL BE THE
MECHANISM BEHIND THIS STRENGTHENING ELY MID LEVEL JET. THE FOCUS
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS WRN ME...THOUGH
INITIALLY NH WILL ALSO GET IN ON PCPN AS IT LIFTS NWD. HIGHEST QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE THE WRN ME MTNS...WHERE THE ELY FLOW LINGERS THE
LONGEST AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES AMOUNTS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES.
EVEN STILL QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR SO FOR THESE
AREAS...AND LESS AS YOU HEAD S AND W. AS SUCH HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLOOD WATCH...AS ONLY NUISANCE AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING SEEMS A
POSSIBILITY WITH THESE QPF AMOUNTS.
AS FOR THE WINTER HEADLINES...I FELT CONFIDENT THAT LOW AND MID
LEVEL WARMTH WILL RESULT IN RNFL FOR ALL BUT THE NRN THIRD OF THE
CWFA. ANY REMAINING WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN DROPPED.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN ARE THE WRN ME MTNS...WHERE TEMPS REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING. IN ADDITION...SFC HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO QUEBEC TODAY. THIS MAY REINVIGORATE THE COLD AIR DAMMING...OR
AT LEAST KEEP THINGS STEADY STATE. THIS PROLONGS THE THREAT OF
SN...PL...AND ZR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM RANGELEY TO JACKMAN SHOW
SHOW A DECENT WARM NOSE NEAR 800 MB FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH THE
COLD AIR MAXIMIZED AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FT. GIVEN THE HEIGHT OF
THE WARM NOSE THAT DEFINITELY BRINGS PL INTO PLAY...WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ICING IN THAT ZONE ABOVE 1000 FT. SREF ZR
PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE PERCENTAGE OF
FROZEN PCPN INCREASING AS HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN
TODAY...INDICATING THE COLUMN MAY TRY AND DYNAMICALLY COOL SOME.
TAKING THIS ALL INTO ACCOUNT I BLENDED THE 10/00Z ECMWF WITH THE
NAM AND CMC REGIONAL TO PRODUCE THERMAL PROFILES. THE RESULTING WX
GRIDS YIELDED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SN/PL WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF
ZR FOR THE WRN ME MTNS. AS A RESULT I HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THESE ZONES...AND BRACKET THEM WITH A
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MAINLY A LIGHT ICING WITH ANY SNWFL. IN THE
END FEEL THAT THIS IS A BETTER RESULT THAN LEAVING WARNINGS UP
FROM HEAVY PCPN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEB GRAPHICS
REPRESENT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. ELY
INFLOW OF MOISTURE WILL BE CUT OFF AND SHUNTED NWD HOWEVER...AND
WE/LL BE LEFT WITH SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER THE LOW CENTER.
HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL
ASSIST IN THE LIFTING PROCESS. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE WORKING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...GRADUALLY CHANGING SHRA TO SHSN AWAY
FROM THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH
ITS MOIST AND UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND
PRODUCING INSTABILITY SNW SHOWERS THU NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE LOW FINALLY DRIFTS FAR ENOUGH E
TO ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING AS A STRONG SFC/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS E.
EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATED WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU MID
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION.
WILL SEE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE ARE ALL TERMINALS THRU THIS MORNING AS
WELL. STEADY PCPN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE S THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
RNFL FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH THE ONLY RISK OF MIXED PCPN AT KHIE.
NELY WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THRU THE MORNING. GRADUALLY IFR
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THU.
LONG TERM...SOME LINGERING SCT RN/SNW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY PSBLY LOWERING CONDS TO MVFR AT TIMES OTHERWISE VFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AOA 35 KTS. BAYS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO
SCA. EXPECTED WINDS TO DIMINISH ON ALL WATERS TO 25 KTS BEFORE
12Z. SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THRU THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO BELOW SCA CONDS BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE NW FLOW FROM THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 9.7 FT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE /AT PORTLAND/ COMBINED WITH ONSHORE
WINDS AND LARGE OFFSHORE SEAS MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS AT 122 PM TODAY. HIGH SURF
WILL ALSO CAUSE SOME BEACH EROSION.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ007>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-
013.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151-
153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...LEGRO
MARINE...LEGRO/MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1032 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.UPDATE...
RAOBS FROM KDTX AND KAPX THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP
ENOUGH LAYER OF SATURATION UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION TO
MAINTAIN STRATUS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. MEAN NORTHERLY FLOW UNDER
THIS INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE OFF LAKE HURON
TODAY...BEFORE FLOW MAKES A SLOW AND SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW STRATUS TO ERODE VERY
SLOWLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND
12Z DATA FROM THE NAM AND RAP SUPPORT A SLOWER CLEARING TREND AND
FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO REFLECT LATER TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 600 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
//DISCUSSION...
A SOLID OVERCAST STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO COVER ALL OF LOWER MI AND
MOST OF LAKE HURON. A MOIST NNE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON UNDER A DEEP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT IN SUSTAINING THESE CLOUDS.
CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 1K TO 2K FT RANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
INVERSION BASE LOWERED. DESPITE ONGOING LOWERING OF THE INVERSION
BASE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
IN SUSTAINING BASES ABOVE 1K FT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO AN EROSION OF THESE CLOUDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR DTW...TIMING OF THE CLEARING WORKING INTO METRO LATER TODAY
CARRIES A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS CLEARING MAY NOT ENTER METRO DETROIT
UNTIL THIS EVENING AROUND OR AFTER 22Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CLEARING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 359 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY EFFICIENT FLUX OF MOISTURE OFF LAKE
HURON OVERNIGHT...LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CEILINGS LOWERING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE INVERSION BASE LOWERS. HERE AT THE NWS
OFFICE...THIS IS LEADING TO PRECIP FALLING MORE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. BASED ON THE CURRENT OBSERVED INTENSITY AND WITH
AN EXPECTED DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
DRIER SFC AIR FUNNELS IN FROM THE NORTH...IMPACTS FROM ANY LINGERING
FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE MINOR AND NOT JUSTIFY
A HEADLINE.
THE LOWERING INVERSION BASE IS RESULTING FROM INCREASED LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE FROM MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING OVER LOWER MI.
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER SE MI.
THIS WAVE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...FURTHER INCREASING
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
SUSTAINING A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION /AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z KAPX
SOUNDING/. THIS AND MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON UNDER A NNE LOW
LEVEL FLOW HAS HELD A SOLID LOW STRATUS DECK OVER MOST OF LOWER MI.
SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE INVERSION BASE IS NOW ONGOING
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THIS EXTREMELY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION BASE WILL ADVANCE INTO SRN MI TODAY. THE FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO BACK TOWARD THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON
/LESSONING THE INFLUENCE OFF LAKE HURON/ AND BECOME SLIGHTLY
DIVERGENT. THESE FACTORS WILL OFFER AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A CLEARING OF
THE LOW CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A VERY SLOW DECLINE THIS MORNING AS
THE CLOUDS AND STRONG GRADIENT FLOW SUPPRESS THE NEAR SURFACE
COOLING. A SHALLOW THERMAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER SE MI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING JUST A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPS FROM MORNING
READINGS /ASSUMING AN EARLIER CLEARING DOES NOT OCCUR/. DESPITE THE
EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AMBIENT AIRMASS TONIGHT...THE NORTHWEST
GRADIENT WILL ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THE RETROGRESSION OF
THE NEW ENGLAND STORM SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WELL...THE CONSENSUS THAT HAD BEEN SOLIDIFIED WITH THE 09.12Z NWP
OFFERING IN REGARDS TO A MORE EASTERN PRECIPITATION SOLUTION
THURSDAY...WAS THROWN INTO DOUBT AGAIN...THIS TIME WITH THE 10.00Z
NAM SOLUTION. THE NAM SOLUTION IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIGHT SNOW
WILL IN FACT BACK ACROSS LAKE HURON BRUSHING SHORELINE AREAS OF THE
THUMB FROM APPROXIMATELY 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. THIS HAS
ALWAYS BEEN AND REMAINS A TOUCHY FORECAST AS THE AMOUNT OF DEEP DRY
AIR WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE FLANKING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SET A HARD EDGE AND A TIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADIENT. THE ECMWF WHICH
HAD BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...MOVED OFF OF THE
POSSIBILITY EARLIER. THERE SEEMS TO BE A NUMBER OF FACTORS THAT MAY
ALLOW FOR THE DEEP MOISTURE/LIGHT SNOW TO UNRAVEL AND MAKE IT BACK
TO THE EXTREME EASTERN THUMB COUNTIES. THE FIRST IS THE MAIN JET
BRANCH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BREAKS AWAY TODAY...CAUSING A
PSEUDO LONGWAVE CUTOFF. THE SECOND IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JETLET THAT
WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE JAMES BAY REGION AND CYCLONICALLY ROTATE
DOWN THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THE THIRD IS THE
COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH SODAK THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISISIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE DAMPENING OF HEIGHTS THAT WILL OCCUR
FROM THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE AFOREMENTION JETLET IN CANADA DIVING
SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MAIN MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO WOBBLE THROUGH
MICHIGAN AND STRENGTHEN. THEREFORE...DO NOT WANT TO MOVE COMPLETELY
AWAY FROM THE POSSIBILITY THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL BRUSH THE THUMB.
REINTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE POP FOR PORTIONS OF HURON/SANILAC/ST CLAIR
COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOW AN
OUTSTANDING UPPER LEVEL FRONTAL/LOW STABILITY STRUCTURE THAT
WOULD...CONDITIONALLY...BE SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL OMEGA
BLOCK/RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DRY AIR
AND A VERY STABLE PROFILE WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL CAUSE QUIET
WEATHER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY
MODERATE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE WILL WASH
ACROSS THE STATE.
MARINE...
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
HAS STRENGTHENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A
MARGINAL GALE EVENT OVER THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON. A GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED SOUTH OF HARBOR BEACH. THE GALE WARNING WILL
THEN CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN OCCLUDING OF THE SURFACE
LOW WILL ALLOW THE LOW CENTER TO ARCH BACK TO THE NW INTO PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK STATE AND VERMONT BY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ACTUALLY ALLOW WINDS TO SOLIDLY INCREASE ABOVE 35 KNOTS ON THURSDAY
FOR THE OPEN LAKE WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AS A PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ442-443-463-464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......HLO
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
530 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES...WHICH WILL
HELP REINFORCE THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS MEANS THE LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BE GOING
ABSOLUTELY NO WHERE DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR WITH
SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO FAR WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHT
VEERING OF THE WINDS TODAY SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF THE DRIER AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY WEST OF I-29 TO PUSH EAST INTO MN.
HOWEVER...WITH STRATUS RAPIDLY EXPANDING ACROSS KS...SE NEB AND SRN
IA...THIS CLEARING MAY VERY WELL NOT MATERIALIZE. GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...FURTHER REDUCED HIGHS TODAY AND
INCREASED LOWS FOR TONIGHT AS ANY SORT OF DIURNAL TREND WITH TEMPS
WILL BE PRETTY MINIMAL. FOR VISIBILITIES TONIGHT...EXPECT A REPEAT
OF WHAT WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW...WITH HAZY CONDITIONS AND
VISIBILITIES MAINLY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES AND THE SPORADIC 1/4 OR
1/2SM IN FG . NOT EXPECTING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO
INCREASE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN WE START SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN SFC DEWPOINTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEIGHT RISES DUE TO LONG WAVE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE LATE THIS WEEK. THE 10.00Z/06Z GFS AND 10.00Z ECMWF HAVE
500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 576M BY 00Z SATURDAY...EXCEPTIONALLY
HIGH FOR MID DECEMBER. THIS MEANS WARMER TEMPS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY-SATURDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...ALL THE ADDED MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A LOT OF
CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER
WARMING AND LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...IT WILL HOWEVER...KEEP
NIGHTTIME LOWS QUITE MILD. THESE MILD DECEMBER TEMPS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE FOG/DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE WHAT SNOW COVER REMAINS IN MN/WI. DRIZZLE LOOKS
TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN ADVANCING
SURFACE TROUGH. DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH AND SLOWLY
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM 12Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY. IN
ADDITION TO DEEPER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LIFT TO HELP
GENERATE LIGHT RAIN AND SMALL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ON SUNDAY AS
OPPOSED TO THE MUCH SMALLER DRIZZLE DROPS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
THE EVOLUTION OF TWO DISTINCT WAVES /ONE NORTH AND ONE SOUTH/ EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DICTATE HOW LONG WE HOLD ONTO PRECIP MON-TUE. PRIOR
TO LAST NIGHT`S RUN...THE ECMWF HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY SOUTH WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THEREFORE TOOK A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS IA/MO. WE WERE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO SEE
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH TIME AND SLOWLY
MIGRATE TOWARD THE ECMWF. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 10.00Z ECMWF TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH AND NOW HAS HEALTHY QPF FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WI. AGAIN...THIS IS THE SOUTHERN
WAVE...WHICH IS THE SAME SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING WILD WEATHER TO
THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING
A LARGE AMOUNT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THIS
ADVANCING TROUGH...SO WHATEVER MODEL BEST HANDLES THE RAINFALL AND
LATENT HEAT RELEASE OUT WEST WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE MOST ACCURATE
DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER/FOG/DRIZZLE ARE A GOOD BET
FRI-SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
UNTIL WE BEGIN TO SEE OTHERWISE...IT/S STATUS QUO WITH THE
STRATUS. JUST INTRODUCED A DIURNAL TREND WITH CIGS...WITH
IMPROVEMENTS TO IFR/LOW END MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A REPEAT
PERFORMANCE IN DECREASING CIGS/VIS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE TWO
LOCATIONS THAT MAY HAVE A SHOT AT CLEARING OUT FOR A BIT ARE
AXN/RWF WHERE BETTER MECHANICAL MIXING WITH STRONGER WINDS MAY BE
ABLE TO CLEAR THE SKIES OUT FOR A BIT AS THE HRRR SHOWS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE CLOUDS SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP STRATUS IN PLACE OUT WEST AS WELL
UNTIL SATELLITE TRENDS BEGIN TO TELL US OTHERWISE. IF WRN MN DOES
SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
FORMATION OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE IT...CLOUDS
OR FOG...YOU WILL NEED INSTRUMENTS IF YOU PLAN ON FLYING IN/OUT OF
MN OR WI THIS PERIOD.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE
NEXT 30 PLUS HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LESS IN HOW MUCH WE
WILL SEE CIG HEIGHTS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN IF WE DO
SEE MVFR CIGS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THEY WILL REMAIN UNDER 017.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...IFR CIGS. WINDS S 6-8 KTS.
FRI...IFR CIGS. WINDS S 5 KTS.
SAT...IFR...LIFR POSSIBLE WITH -DZ AND FG. WINDS SSW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
450 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES...WHICH WILL
HELP REINFORCE THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS MEANS THE LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BE GOING
ABSOLUTELY NO WHERE DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR WITH
SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO FAR WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHT
VEERING OF THE WINDS TODAY SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF THE DRIER AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY WEST OF I-29 TO PUSH EAST INTO MN.
HOWEVER...WITH STRATUS RAPIDLY EXPANDING ACROSS KS...SE NEB AND SRN
IA...THIS CLEARING MAY VERY WELL NOT MATERIALIZE. GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...FURTHER REDUCED HIGHS TODAY AND
INCREASED LOWS FOR TONIGHT AS ANY SORT OF DIURNAL TREND WITH TEMPS
WILL BE PRETTY MINIMAL. FOR VISIBILITIES TONIGHT...EXPECT A REPEAT
OF WHAT WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW...WITH HAZY CONDITIONS AND
VISIBILITIES MAINLY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES AND THE SPORADIC 1/4 OR
1/2SM IN FG . NOT EXPECTING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO
INCREASE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN WE START SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN SFC DEWPOINTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEIGHT RISES DUE TO LONG WAVE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE LATE THIS WEEK. THE 10.00Z/06Z GFS AND 10.00Z ECMWF HAVE
500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 576M BY 00Z SATURDAY...EXCEPTIONALLY
HIGH FOR MID DECEMBER. THIS MEANS WARMER TEMPS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY-SATURDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...ALL THE ADDED MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A LOT OF
CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER
WARMING AND LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...IT WILL HOWEVER...KEEP
NIGHTTIME LOWS QUITE MILD. THESE MILD DECEMBER TEMPS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE FOG/DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE WHAT SNOW COVER REMAINS IN MN/WI. DRIZZLE LOOKS
TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN ADVANCING
SURFACE TROUGH. DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH AND SLOWLY
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM 12Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY. IN
ADDITION TO DEEPER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LIFT TO HELP
GENERATE LIGHT RAIN AND SMALL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ON SUNDAY AS
OPPOSED TO THE MUCH SMALLER DRIZZLE DROPS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
THE EVOLUTION OF TWO DISTINCT WAVES /ONE NORTH AND ONE SOUTH/ EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DICTATE HOW LONG WE HOLD ONTO PRECIP MON-TUE. PRIOR
TO LAST NIGHT`S RUN...THE ECMWF HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY SOUTH WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THEREFORE TOOK A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS IA/MO. WE WERE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO SEE
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH TIME AND SLOWLY
MIGRATE TOWARD THE ECMWF. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 10.00Z ECMWF TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH AND NOW HAS HEALTHY QPF FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WI. AGAIN...THIS IS THE SOUTHERN
WAVE...WHICH IS THE SAME SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING WILD WEATHER TO
THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING
A LARGE AMOUNT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THIS
ADVANCING TROUGH...SO WHATEVER MODEL BEST HANDLES THE RAINFALL AND
LATENT HEAT RELEASE OUT WEST WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE MOST ACCURATE
DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER/FOG/DRIZZLE ARE A GOOD BET
FRI-SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE AREA UNDER A
STRONG INVERSION...LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND.
LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
BR WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR CIGS
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH IT APPEARING LESS AND LESS LIKELY
THAT WE WILL CLEAR OUT. SOUNDS FROM THE NAM AND RAP CONTINUE
INDICATE THE PERSISTENCE OF LLVL MOISTURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SLIGHT/TEMPORARY LIFTING OF CIGS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON /MOSTLY WEST/...BUT WOULD MOST LIKELY DEGRADE BACK
DOWN EARLY IN THE EVENING.
KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS STAYING IFR OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH MFR VSBYS. SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT THE SITE SOCKED IN GIVEN MODELS
INSISTENCE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS S 6-8 KTS.
FRI...IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS S 8-10 KT.
SAT...IFR LIKELY...LIFR POSSIBLE WITH -DZ AND FG. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
602 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
A SMALL AREA OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE CITY OF HASTINGS. LATEST RUNS OF THE SHORT TERM
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP MODEL HAVE JUST NOW BEGUN TO SHOW
THIS LATEST DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI CITIES AND SPREAD NORTHWARD. THEREFORE
ADDED AREAS OF FOG LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN THE FORECAST TO COVER
THIS. THINK WHATEVER FOG DEVELOPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED FOR EACH
LOCATION AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS OVERNIGHT SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE
RIDGE INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN
TO SLIDE EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTH BREEZES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
PATCHY STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND ALSO SOUTH AND INTO PORTIONS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES.
REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS
KEEP ALL REDUCED VISIBILITY OUT OF OUR CWA. ON THE OTHER HAND...NAM
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN PESSIMISTIC WITH FOG THE PAST
FEW DAYS (ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NOT PANNED OUT EACH NIGHT). CURRENT
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE LAYERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO FORM. THUS...WHILE IT IS
POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH SOME MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE A DENSE FOG SCENARIO.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE
IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. AGAIN...MOISTURE FIELDS ARE
DEEPER SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES...WHEN LOOKING AT NAM AND GFS
CROSS SECTIONS. THEREFORE...EXPECTING STRATUS OVER KANSAS TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. SO...HOPEFULLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 40S...WITH UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S UNDER A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NOW...ALL
THAT BEING SAID...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 6Z NAM SEEMS TO BE
COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH...AS IT PROPOSES HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR
TOMORROW! EVEN UNDER COMPLETELY CLOUDY SKIES...SEE ABSOLUTELY NO
REASON WHY WE SHOULD REMAIN AT OUR CURRENT 9Z TEMPERATURES ALL
DAY...WITH EVEN LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW MORNING...INHERITED CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND AREAS OF FOG ELSEWHERE.
AGREE THAT LATEST MODEL RUNS DO SHOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LIGHTS WINDS AND VERY DRY MID LEVELS...ALL POINTING TO A
FREEZING DRIZZLE/ DRIZZLE SITUATION. HOWEVER...AGAIN AS WITH THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SEEM TO BE VERY VERY
SHALLOW...NEARLY PAPER THIN ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS ALSO
RETREATING SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND BECOMING EVEN MORE
SHALLOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. SO WHILE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY...CONFIDENCE IN A LARGE WIDESPREAD AREA OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE AND FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH AT ALL.
THEREFORE...REDUCED WORDING TO PATCHY FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
MORNING AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE SOME DRIZZLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. EARLY IN THE MORNING THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH. BY AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP. THE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING TOO FAR AND THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AND WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE
AROUND WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THE TEMPERATURES RISE AS MUCH.
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR
DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY THERE IS AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
IN THE FORECAST BUT WORRY THAT IT COULD BE MORE OF ANOTHER DAY WITH
SOME DRIZZLE. THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM ADVECTION AND EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAINS A CHALLENGE. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN PAST NIGHTS BUT STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND HOW FAST IT MOVES THROUGH
THE PLAINS. THEREFORE STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST. NOT
AS CONCERNED AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION BECAUSE BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE COLDER
AIR IS A LITTLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
THAT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE WENT WITH RAIN OR SNOW FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND NOT CERTAIN
HOW MUCH SNOW THERE WILL BE BUT THE NORTHWEST COULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE COLD AIR TO SEE HOW MUCH
SNOW THERE WILL BE.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD
AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY OPTIMISTIC OVERNIGHT AT
KEEPING LOW CEILINGS AT REDUCED VISIBILITIES OUT OF THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING IT SEEMS THEY HAVE DONE A COMPLETE ONE EIGHTY. AN
AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING FROM
KANSAS AND HAS MOVED AS FAR NORTH AS THE FIRST ROW OF COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...THIS STRATUS BEARS A CEILING NO LOWER THAN
1800 FT AND NO REDUCED VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN 5 SM. UNFORTUNATELY
JUST AHEAD OF THIS BAND...A VERY SMALL AREA OF LOW CEILINGS AND
REDUCED HAS DEVELOPED LITERALLY RIGHT OVER THE CITY OF HASTINGS.
THIS STRATUS IS ON SUCH A SMALL SCALE THAT IT IS HARD TO SEE ON
INFRARED SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODELS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING TO
PICK UP ON IT. EXPECT THIS AREA TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY MOST LIKELY
COVERING BOTH TAF SITES AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...NOT
EXPECTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO HANG ON LONG...SO COVERED THIS
WITH A TEMPO GROUP. AS FOR CEILINGS...AGAIN EXPECT STRATUS TO HANG
AROUND BUT VERY LOW CEILINGS OF 200 FT TO BE A SHORT LIVED THING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SALTZMAN
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SALTZMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
537 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS OVERNIGHT SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE
RIDGE INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN
TO SLIDE EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTH BREEZES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
PATCHY STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND ALSO SOUTH AND INTO PORTIONS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES.
REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS
KEEP ALL REDUCED VISIBILITY OUT OF OUR CWA. ON THE OTHER HAND...NAM
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN PESSIMISTIC WITH FOG THE PAST
FEW DAYS (ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NOT PANNED OUT EACH NIGHT). CURRENT
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE LAYERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO FORM. THUS...WHILE IT IS
POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH SOME MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE A DENSE FOG SCENARIO.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE
IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. AGAIN...MOISTURE FIELDS ARE
DEEPER SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES...WHEN LOOKING AT NAM AND GFS
CROSS SECTIONS. THEREFORE...EXPECTING STRATUS OVER KANSAS TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. SO...HOPEFULLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 40S...WITH UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S UNDER A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NOW...ALL
THAT BEING SAID...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 6Z NAM SEEMS TO BE
COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH...AS IT PROPOSES HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR
TOMORROW! EVEN UNDER COMPLETELY CLOUDY SKIES...SEE ABSOLUTELY NO
REASON WHY WE SHOULD REMAIN AT OUR CURRENT 9Z TEMPERATURES ALL
DAY...WITH EVEN LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW MORNING...INHERITED CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND AREAS OF FOG ELSEWHERE.
AGREE THAT LATEST MODEL RUNS DO SHOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LIGHTS WINDS AND VERY DRY MID LEVELS...ALL POINTING TO A
FREEZING DRIZZLE/ DRIZZLE SITUATION. HOWEVER...AGAIN AS WITH THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SEEM TO BE VERY VERY
SHALLOW...NEARLY PAPER THIN ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS ALSO
RETREATING SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND BECOMING EVEN MORE
SHALLOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. SO WHILE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY...CONFIDENCE IN A LARGE WIDESPREAD AREA OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE AND FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH AT ALL.
THEREFORE...REDUCED WORDING TO PATCHY FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
MORNING AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE SOME DRIZZLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. EARLY IN THE MORNING THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH. BY AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP. THE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING TOO FAR AND THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AND WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE
AROUND WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THE TEMPERATURES RISE AS MUCH.
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR
DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY THERE IS AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
IN THE FORECAST BUT WORRY THAT IT COULD BE MORE OF ANOTHER DAY WITH
SOME DRIZZLE. THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM ADVECTION AND EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAINS A CHALLENGE. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN PAST NIGHTS BUT STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND HOW FAST IT MOVES THROUGH
THE PLAINS. THEREFORE STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST. NOT
AS CONCERNED AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION BECAUSE BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE COLDER
AIR IS A LITTLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
THAT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE WENT WITH RAIN OR SNOW FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND NOT CERTAIN
HOW MUCH SNOW THERE WILL BE BUT THE NORTHWEST COULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE COLD AIR TO SEE HOW MUCH
SNOW THERE WILL BE.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD
AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY OPTIMISTIC OVERNIGHT AT
KEEPING LOW CEILINGS AT REDUCED VISIBILITIES OUT OF THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING IT SEEMS THEY HAVE DONE A COMPLETE ONE EIGHTY. AN
AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING FROM
KANSAS AND HAS MOVED AS FAR NORTH AS THE FIRST ROW OF COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...THIS STRATUS BEARS A CEILING NO LOWER THAN
1800 FT AND NO REDUCED VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN 5 SM. UNFORTUNATELY
JUST AHEAD OF THIS BAND...A VERY SMALL AREA OF LOW CEILINGS AND
REDUCED HAS DEVELOPED LITERALLY RIGHT OVER THE CITY OF HASTINGS.
THIS STRATUS IS ON SUCH A SMALL SCALE THAT IT IS HARD TO SEE ON
INFRARED SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODELS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING TO
PICK UP ON IT. EXPECT THIS AREA TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY MOST LIKELY
COVERING BOTH TAF SITES AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...NOT
EXPECTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO HANG ON LONG...SO COVERED THIS
WITH A TEMPO GROUP. AS FOR CEILINGS...AGAIN EXPECT STRATUS TO HANG
AROUND BUT VERY LOW CEILINGS OF 200 FT TO BE A SHORT LIVED THING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SALTZMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
836 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MID/UPPER DISTURBANCES IN A MOIST NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BREAKS UP THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM TENNESSEE VALLEY TO END WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
830 AM UPDATE...DID ELECT TO EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO BY A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OHIO
ZONES BORDERING THE PBZ CWA AS DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS THERE.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
COLDER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FILTER DOWN FROM THE NORTH. RAP MODEL
HAS ABOUT A MINUS 5 C AT 850 MB FOR 08Z...AND ABOUT MINUS 8C BY 21Z
TODAY.
THE FORECAST SOUNDING OFF THE NAM SHOWS THE TOP OF THE
MOIST LAYER AROUND 5 THSD FT MSL FOR THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THAT
TOP LOWERS BELOW 3 THSD FT MSL TONIGHT. AS IT GETS COLDER
ALOFT...THE BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPS MANAGES TO STAY NEAR THE TOP
OF THAT SHRINKING MOIST LAYER THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO WEAK CHANNELED
500 MB VORT MAXIMUMS DROPPING SE THROUGH OUR VCNTY TODAY...AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW NEAR NEW YORK CITY. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE OUR POPS MUCH HIGHER THAN MODEL MOS GUIDANCE IN THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE COUNTIES - EVEN THOUGH FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS. SPECIFIC HOURLY
POPS BECOME TOUGHER TO FIGURE AS YOU VENTURE WEST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER COUNTIES.
IN THE LOW CEILINGS...DID INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES AOB
32 DEGS.
NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN MAY NOT
GO ABOVE THEIR 12Z TEMPERATURE DURING THE DAY.
LIKED OUR PREVIOUS IDEA OF KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ABOVE MOST MOS GUIDANCE...SINCE WE ARE FORECASTING THE CEILINGS TO
HOLD. COLDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE BEST CHANCE OF PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE.
FOR THIS CURRENT NIGHT(TUESDAY NIGHT)...TODAY...AND TONIGHT...HAVE A
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR EACH OF THOSE PERIODS
ACROSS OUR HIGH COUNTRY...MOSTLY AOB 3500 FEET. SO NOTHING TO WRITE
HOME ABOUT FOR THESE DARK DAYS OF DECEMBER. OF COURSE...WITH THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES...UNTREATED ROADS COULD EASILY BECOME SLIPPERY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT...IN THE GRIPS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL
FINALLY BEGIN MOVING OUT SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE LOW TO OUR NE...WILL BE IN
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WOULD TYPICALLY PROVIDE
DECENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. HAVE POPS DECREASING THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES
AWAY FROM CWA. HAVE A POP MINIMUM THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE
INCREASING SOME IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATES
AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM. ANOTHER IMPULSE SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...SO INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. NAM TRIES TO BRING A SLUG OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRIER. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFERENCE
IS IN THE PLACEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH. NAM STILL HAS IT OVER THE LOWER
OHIO RIVER VALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FARTHER
EAST. WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDING A
COUPLE DEGREES TO HIGHS EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL...DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LONG
TERM...AS UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A SYSTEM
APPROACHES LATE IN THE LONG TERM...SPREADING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE AREA...AND BRINGING IN COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT PCPN HAS INCREASED AFTER 06Z...BUT A TEMPORARY LULL ON RADAR
WAS APPROACHING CRW FROM THE NW NEAR 11Z.
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND HAVE CEILINGS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 THSD IN THE
OHIO VALLEY OF SE OHIO AND NE KY...LOWERING EAST...WITH WIDESPREAD
CEILINGS AOB 1 THSD FT OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WITH HIGHER RIDGES
OBSCURED.
WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MOSTLY
BLO 3 MILES IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS. SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING KBKW VCNTY TIL
14Z...COULD LEAVE SOME LIGHT GLAZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND METAL
OBJECTS.
HAVE STRATUS BECOMING SCATTERED TO BROKEN AROUND 2 THSD FT IN SE OH
AND NE KY INTO THE PKB-HTS CORRIDOR 06Z TO 12Z.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MOSTLY 14Z TO 22Z TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY VARY IN WV CAUSING MORE FLUCTUATION IN VSBY THAN
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN CEILINGS AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE EVAPORATING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
545 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MID/UPPER DISTURBANCES IN A MOIST NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BREAKS UP THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM TENNESSEE VALLEY TO END WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLDER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FILTER DOWN FROM THE NORTH. RAP MODEL
HAS ABOUT A MINUS 5 C AT 850 MB FOR 08Z...AND ABOUT MINUS 8C BY 21Z
TODAY.
THE FORECAST SOUNDING OFF THE NAM SHOWS THE TOP OF THE
MOIST LAYER AROUND 5 THSD FT MSL FOR THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THAT
TOP LOWERS BELOW 3 THSD FT MSL TONIGHT. AS IT GETS COLDER
ALOFT...THE BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPS MANAGES TO STAY NEAR THE TOP
OF THAT SHRINKING MOIST LAYER THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO WEAK CHANNELED
500 MB VORT MAXIMUMS DROPPING SE THROUGH OUR VCNTY TODAY...AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW NEAR NEW YORK CITY. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE OUR POPS MUCH HIGHER THAN MODEL MOS GUIDANCE IN THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE COUNTIES - EVEN THOUGH FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS. SPECIFIC HOURLY
POPS BECOME TOUGHER TO FIGURE AS YOU VENTURE WEST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER COUNTIES.
IN THE LOW CEILINGS...DID INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES AOB
32 DEGS.
NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN MAY NOT
GO ABOVE THEIR 12Z TEMPERATURE DURING THE DAY.
LIKED OUR PREVIOUS IDEA OF KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ABOVE MOST MOS GUIDANCE...SINCE WE ARE FORECASTING THE CEILINGS TO
HOLD. COLDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE BEST CHANCE OF PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE.
FOR THIS CURRENT NIGHT(TUESDAY NIGHT)...TODAY...AND TONIGHT...HAVE A
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR EACH OF THOSE PERIODS
ACROSS OUR HIGH COUNTRY...MOSTLY AOB 3500 FEET. SO NOTHING TO WRITE
HOME ABOUT FOR THESE DARK DAYS OF DECEMBER. OF COURSE...WITH THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES...UNTREATED ROADS COULD EASILY BECOME SLIPPERY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT...IN THE GRIPS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL
FINALLY BEGIN MOVING OUT SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE LOW TO OUR NE...WILL BE IN
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WOULD TYPICALLY PROVIDE
DECENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. HAVE POPS DECREASING THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES
AWAY FROM CWA. HAVE A POP MINIMUM THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE
INCREASING SOME IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATES
AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM. ANOTHER IMPULSE SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...SO INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. NAM TRIES TO BRING A SLUG OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRIER. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFERENCE
IS IN THE PLACEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH. NAM STILL HAS IT OVER THE LOWER
OHIO RIVER VALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FARTHER
EAST. WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDING A
COUPLE DEGREES TO HIGHS EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL...DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LONG
TERM...AS UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A SYSTEM
APPROACHES LATE IN THE LONG TERM...SPREADING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE AREA...AND BRINGING IN COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT PCPN HAS INCREASED AFTER 06Z...BUT A TEMPORARY LULL ON RADAR
WAS APPROACHING CRW FROM THE NW NEAR 11Z.
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND HAVE CEILINGS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 THSD IN THE
OHIO VALLEY OF SE OHIO AND NE KY...LOWERING EAST...WITH WIDESPREAD
CEILINGS AOB 1 THSD FT OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WITH HIGHER RIDGES
OBSCURED.
WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MOSTLY
BLO 3 MILES IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS. SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING KBKW VCNTY TIL
14Z...COULD LEAVE SOME LIGHT GLAZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND METAL
OBJECTS.
HAVE STRATUS BECOMING SCATTERED TO BROKEN AROUND 2 THSD FT IN SE OH
AND NE KY INTO THE PKB-HTS CORRIDOR 06Z TO 12Z.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MOSTLY 14Z TO 22Z TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY VARY IN WV CAUSING MORE FLUCTUATION IN VSBY THAN
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN CEILINGS AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE EVAPORATING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1053 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKES AND EVEN SOME
MOISTURE WRAPPING ALL THE WAY AROUND THE LOW WILL CREATE LIGHT
BUT NEARLY CONSTANT SNOW OVER THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS INTO
FRIDAY. RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD
TO REPLACE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AND THE WEATHER REMAIN
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL MOVE ONLY VERY
SLIGHTLY AND SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. MOISTURE AND GOOD FORCING TO THE N/W OF THIS DOMINANT FEATURE
IS SLIDING INTO THE NERN COUNTIES AND BACK INTO FAR WRN NY STATE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT BREAK AT THIS TIME...AND DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE WIDENING A BIT. TEMPS RUNNING JUST A HINT ABOVE CURR
FCST CURVE IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS...BUT COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE TEMPS STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL SNOW AMTS THIS AFTN IN THE NE SHOULD BE LESS THAN 2
INCHES EVEN IN THE LOCATIONS IT DOES SNOW ALMOST CONTINUALLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
11 AM UPDATE...
THE GENERALLY LIGHT AND CONSTANT SNOW FROM WRN NY STATE SHOULD
SLIDE EVEN FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE
VERY LOW ON QPF BUT COLD TEMPS AND PRETTY DECENT DGZ IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE CLOUD LAYER COULD MAKE SLR/S BETTER THAN 15:1.
THEREFORE...A NEW ADVY FOR THE UPCOMING NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE
PONDERED - MAINLY FOR THE NRN TIER AND PERHAPS THE LAURELS.
AGAIN...SOMETHING FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.
PREV...
THE SHORT TO MID RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THE POSITION
AND TRACK OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT WILL SLOWLY
PIVOT/WOBBLE NE ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THE MAIN ACTION TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST WHERE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL
FALL...ADDING ANOTHER FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OVER THIS FAIRLY LONG
TIME SPAN. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OVER ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD DON/T
REALLY GET OVER 3 INCHES...SO NO ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ATTM.
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION...EXPECT TO SEE FLURRIES MUCH OF THE TIME WITH OCNL LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. 24 HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A COATING TO INCH ARE
LIKELY TO THE SE OF THE I-99/RT 80/220 CORRIDOR...WHILE AROUND 2
INCHES COULD OCCUR RIGHT ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE PLATEAU.
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AND LES AREAS
OF NW PENN...AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 219
WHERE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED MINIMAL ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FOR NOW...WE/LL LET THE FORECAST AND POINT AND CLICK SNOW TOTALS
SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES WITH NO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
EXPECTED BE ISSUED FOR THE SECOND THROUGH 4TH PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST BEFORE LATE MORNING AT THE EARLIEST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO
AROUND 30 IN THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN SOUTHERN PA.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 20S IN
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WITH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER ONCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CUTS OFF EARLY FRIDAY...THE
PRECIP WILL FADE WITH ONLY THE NW MTNS STILL RECEIVING LIGHT
SNOWFALL.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
UPPER LOW TO NUDGE EASTWARD AND ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. ENOUGH TO HAVE US BEGINNING TO ENJOY THE
INFLUENCE OF SOME RIDGING AND FAIRER CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11 AM UPDATE...
GENERALLY MVFR IN THE USUAL SPOTS AND CURR ONLY JST IN THE LOW
CLOUDS. BUT SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH HALTED THERE AS WELL. THE SNOW
SHOULD RETURN TO BFD FROM THE N THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BFD
OBS HAVING TROUBLE GETTING THRU THE WIRES...FAA IS WORKING ON THE
PROBLEM.
PREV...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN MA AT 10/06Z IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURS AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES. THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
PUSH EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRI/SAT.
HI RES HRRR WAS CORRECT IN SHOWING THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE WRAP AROUND SNOW BAND /CURRENTLY FROM AVP NWWD INTO NY
AIRSPACE/ WOULD FIZZLE OUT EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS FROM
06Z NOW STRONGLY FAVOR WRAP AROUND/UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE FOR A LONG
DURATION THROUGH THURSDAY. ABOVE AVG CONFIDENCE STILL EXISTS WITH
RELATIVELY STABLE FLGT CATS: PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR AND LIFR
REMAINS A VERY GOOD BET AT JST/BFD WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR
TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL BE
INCREASING WINDS FROM 330-300 DEG. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SUSTAINED
SFC WINDS 15-20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS LASTING WELL INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW NORTH/WEST. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL
AND EAST. STRONG N-NW WINDS 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
FRI...MVFR/IFR IN -SHSN NORTH/WEST. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.
SAT...MVFR CIGS/-SHSN EARLY WEST...BCMG VFR.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
AVIATION...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
703 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENSIVE PLUME OF DEEPENING MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST
SIDE OF A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BRING CLOUDY AND
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SNOW TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
AN ADDITIONAL FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
OCCASIONAL LIGHTER SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF THE STATE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND
AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM
THE EASTERN GLAKES AND HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...SOUTH TO THE
CAROLINA COAST. A FEW SPOKES OF ENERGY LIFTING NW AND WEST AROUND
THIS TROUGH WILL HELP IT TO TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEG TILT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCREASING THE TAP OF MOISTURE OFF THE WRN
ATLANTIC...WHILE ALSO LEADING TO A DEEP AND WELL-ALIGNED/MOIST
NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE GLAKES...AND AIMED AT THE NW SNOWBELT AND
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
WEAK TO MDT ECHOES SEE ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC WILL EXPAND A BIT TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS
OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AT 09Z INCREASING A TAD IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE DAY TODAY.
TRIMMED A FEW MID SUSQ VALLEY COUNTIES OUT OF THE PRESENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...THAT RUNS UNTIL 17Z INVOF OF KIPT AND POINTS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST.
CLOUDY SKIES AND INCREASINGLY COLD ADVECTION AT LLVLS VIA A GUSTY
NW WIND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY FALLING
ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENN.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW TO SVRL DEG F BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
DECEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SHORT TO MID RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THE POSITION
AND TRACK OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT WILL SLOWLY
PIVOT/WOBBLE NE ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THE MAIN ACTION TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST WHERE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL
FALL...ADDING ANOTHER FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OVER THIS FAIRLY LONG
TIME SPAN. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OVER ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD DON/T
REALLY GET OVER 3 INCHES...SO NO ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ATTM.
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION...EXPECT TO SEE FLURRIES MUCH OF THE TIME WITH OCNL LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. 24 HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A COATING TO INCH ARE
LIKELY TO THE SE OF THE I-99/RT 80/220 CORRIDOR...WHILE AROUND 2
INCHES COULD OCCUR RIGHT ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE PLATEAU.
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AND LES AREAS
OF NW PENN...AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 219
WHERE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED MINIMAL ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FOR NOW...WE/LL LET THE FORECAST AND POINT AND CLICK SNOW TOTALS
SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES WITH NO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
EXPECTED BE ISSUED FOR THE SECOND THROUGH 4TH PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST BEFORE LATE MORNING AT THE EARLIEST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO
AROUND 30 IN THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN SOUTHERN PA.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 20S IN
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WITH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER ONCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CUTS OFF EARLY FRIDAY...THE
PRECIP WILL FADE WITH ONLY THE NW MTNS STILL RECEIVING LIGHT
SNOWFALL.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
UPPER LOW TO NUDGE EASTWARD AND ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. ENOUGH TO HAVE US BEGINNING TO ENJOY THE
INFLUENCE OF SOME RIDGING AND FAIRER CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN MA AT 10/06Z IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURS AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES. THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
PUSH EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRI/SAT.
HI RES HRRR WAS CORRECT IN SHOWING THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE WRAP AROUND SNOW BAND /CURRENTLY FROM AVP NWWD INTO NY
AIRSPACE/ WOULD FIZZLE OUT EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS FROM
06Z NOW STRONGLY FAVOR WRAP AROUND/UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE FOR A LONG
DURATION THROUGH THURSDAY. ABOVE AVG CONFIDENCE STILL EXISTS WITH
RELATIVELY STABLE FLGT CATS: PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR AND LIFR
REMAINS A VERY GOOD BET AT JST/BFD WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR
TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL BE
INCREASING WINDS FROM 330-300 DEG. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SUSTAINED
SFC WINDS 15-20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS LASTING WELL INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW NORTH/WEST. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL
AND EAST. STRONG N-NW WINDS 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
FRI...MVFR/IFR IN -SHSN NORTH/WEST. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.
SAT...MVFR CIGS/-SHSN EARLY WEST...BCMG VFR.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ037-041-
042-053-058.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND
A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A DECAYING VORTICITY CENTER WAS STILL EVIDENT SPINNING OVER FAR SWRN
NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...PLACING THE SERN QUARTER OF ARIZONA IN A
WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE. SREF PROBABILITIES AND HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY JUST EAST OF GILA
COUNTY AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AS CIRRUS STREAMING EAST FROM THE PACIFIC
HAS BEEN ERODING IN A REGION OF SINKING MOTION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. EVENTUALLY THICKER HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE
REGION...BUT NOT LIKELY UNTIL TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING
VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID
70S STILL LOOK GOOD.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/410 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014/
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SLOWLY PROGRESSED EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEAK UPPER LOW CENTER THAT BROUGHT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS TO AZ...AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF EASTERN
AZ YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOW BE
OBSERVED OVER MOST OF SE CA AND SW ARIZONA. A RATHER WARM AIR
MASS...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE...WITH EXPECTED TO ONCE
AGAIN ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM EACH DAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE VERY GOOD DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
ALL THE MODEL SUITES CONTINUING TO BRING A STRONG PACIFIC STORM
INLAND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THE SFC COLD FRONT INTO SE CA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THEN
ACROSS SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO BY GOOD WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
PWATS BRIEFLY RISING UP IN THE 1.00-1.15 INCH RANGE AND 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS IN THE 20-25DM RANGE...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION...RANGING FROM
AROUND 0.10 INCH ACROSS SE CA...TO AROUND 0.30 INCH ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...THEN UP TO 0.50-0.60 INCH ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. MOST OF THE PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN A 6-12HR PERIOD AS A RATHER NARROW FRONTAL
BAND PASSES THROUGH. SNOWFALL...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
LIGHT...MAINLY CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS AOA 6500FT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER ON FRIDAY ACROSS SE CA...WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 60S AT SOME LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...WITH SW AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ SEEING ONE MORE DAY WITH HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE
70S. MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S ON SAT
AND SUN AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS AS 850MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE
5-7C RANGE. LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S ON SAT AND SUN NIGHT
AT THE NORMALLY COLDER RURAL LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMUP TO THE REGION.
UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
GFS...EURO...AND GEM NOW SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL/KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BIG CHANGE TO THE WEATHER BEGINNING
FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. THE FRONT WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...FIRST BRINGING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN
ARIZONA FRIDAY AND THEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. SOME INCREASE IN WIND IS ALSO ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...THOUGH GUSTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20-25 MPH. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM...HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS
SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MO/PERCHA
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
946 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY THIN CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE
MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT SEEN IN WYOMING AND VERY LIGHT CROSS
MOUNTAIN FLOW SO EXPECT MOST OF THIS TO REMAIN THIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS HIGH TEMPS WOULD REACH 60F UNDER
FULL SUNSHINE WITH ONLY A SHALLOW INVERSION IN PLACE. GOOD WARMUP
ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A
FEW 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 50S IN/NEAR THE LOWER
FOOTHILLS/PALMER DIVIDE. NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST A DEGREE
OR TWO BASED ON LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014
SHOULD NOT SEE A REPEAT OF THE CHILLY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS
PREVALENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE YESTERDAY...AT LEAST NOT THIS
MORNING. AS WE SAW YESTERDAY EVEN HIGH ALTITUDE CIRRUS CLOUDS CAN
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE WITH THE MIDDAY SUN ANGLE
AS LOW AS IT IS THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR TODAY...SKIES OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO SHOULD START OUT PRETTY MUCH CLOUD-
FREE ALLOWING FOR A STEADY WARMUP THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE STRONG SFC BASED INVERSION ON THE PLAINS DISSIPATING BY
AROUND 17Z. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS...THE HAZY CONDITIONS...A HOLD OVER
FROM THE POOR MIXING CONDITIONS YESTERDAY...SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS. BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS QUITE
DRY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE PLAINS CURRENTLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS (F). FOOTHILL AIR IS EVEN DRIER WITH
DEWPTS AS LOW AS MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 F...AND THAT/S WITHOUT THE
DRYING EFFECTS OF A CHINOOK WIND. THIS WILL AIDE IN THE WARMUP
THIS MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT BATCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOWS
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST.
CROSS SECTIONS DO NOT INDICATE A MTN WAVE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
TODAY. HOWEVER THE RAP AND NAM INDICATE THE FORMATION OF A MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK SIMILAR TO A MTN WAVE CLOUD AFTER 18Z...THOUGH
PERHAPS NOT AS THICK. CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOW A LAYER OF CIRRUS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT TEMPS AGAIN...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER TODAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S ON THE
PLAINS AND 40S/LOWER 50S ACRS THE HIGH COUNTRY. WITH THE PROSPECT
OF LIGHT WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TODAY...WILL
CAUTIOUSLY GO WITH THEM.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER COLORADO...
BRINGING WITH IT DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT. SHOULD SEE SKIES
CLEARING THIS EVENING...AND SIGNS OF A MTN WAVE FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BREEZING DOWNSLOPE WINDS A PRODUCT OF
THIS MTN WAVE WILL PRODUCE WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE PLAINS...
ESPLY ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO ON THURSDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON FRIDAY AS MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW
TURNS SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 60S BY
FRIDAY.
MAIN CONCERN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WHICH TAKES AIM
ON COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SOME COOLING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. LATEST GFS/EUROPEAN 00Z RUNS SHOW THE UPPER TROF OVER UTAH
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
AND INTO A CLOSED LOW FORMING NEAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 18Z
SUNDAY. THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS IN A
MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
OVER EAST SLOPES AND PLAINS OF COLORADO.
GIVEN THE RECENT STORM TRACK CHANGES IN THE MODELS NOT
READY TO BITE TOO HARD YET. HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TO
RAISE POPS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. IF THIS TRACK
PERSISTS...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP IN THE ORDER OF 3 TO 6
INCHES BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. WITH THE STRONG NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STORM TRACK...HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD FAVOR
THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION. QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS ARE ALSO
FAIRLY MODEST WITH UPWARD ASCENT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO. SINCE WE ARE STILL 5 DAYS OUT...MANY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS
MAY STILL PLAY OUT. GIVEN CURRENT MODEL TRACK...SNOW WOULD
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 934 AM MST WED DEC 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. FAIRLY NORMAL AND LIGHT DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE LEANING TOWARD
EASTERLY AROUND 6 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 7-14
KNOTS 01Z-16Z THURSDAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1123 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
FOG DEVELOPED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ALONG A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS WHICH WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WAS
LOCATED IN EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. HRRR AND RAP WERE SIMILAR AND
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AROUND
1/4 MILE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THIS AXIS WHICH WILL BE LOCATED
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. GIVEN THIS AND THE 2 AM HUGOTON
OBSERVATION WILL GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE THE
MOISTURE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO EARLIER THIS
MORNING, WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
FROM WEST TO EAST. HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD WILL ERODE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE NEAR TERM MODELS. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS, THE RAP AND NAM BOTH AGREE THAT FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL
HAVE MORE SUN THAN SOUTH CENTRAL OR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVE THIS AGREEMENT WILL FAVOR THE WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND GUIDANCE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS WHILE TRENDING
TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE FURTHER EAST.
DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL MARGINAL FOR DRIZZLE LATER
THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 SO AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS
LEAVING MENTION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OUT EARLY TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND AN HIGHER
DEW POINTS BEING LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. BASED ON
THIS FOG ONCE AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
USE THE NAM, NMM, AND ARW AS A FIRST GUESS ON THE LOCATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR DIGHTON TO LIBERAL.
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE, STATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. UPPER 30S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DEW POINTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD
COVER AREAL COVERAGE/TIMING AND TEMPERATURES, BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS MOST LIKELY MAINLY
EARLY THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE AREA, AND LIKELY LINGERING ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON EVEN IF WESTERN
SECTIONS CLEAR OUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. THE STRATUS AND
POTENTIAL FOG AS WELL SHOULD RAPIDLY REDEVELOP EACH EVENING WITH
ELEVATED DEW POINTS IN THE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW MAY
PROVIDE INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH THE DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC
LEAF. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONTINUING TO ALLOW THE WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT TO IMPACT THE DDC FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING, WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF PRESENTS A SOLUTION THAT
ASSUMES THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT KEEPS THE UPPER BANDED RAIN/SNOW
OVER FARTHER NORTH OVER NRN KS. THE GFS APPEARS MORE AGGRESSIVE FOR
A BANDED PRECIPITATION SOLUTION ACROSS OUR AREA. UNCERTAINTY WILL
REMAIN HIGH FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS, HOWEVER 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR RAIN EXISTS SUNDAY WITH RAIN OR SNOW AS WELL INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THIS TYPE 1 EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
EXPECT IFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOW VSBYS
WILL PERSIST LESS THAN 1SM DDC AND GCK THROUGH 20Z, AND THEN
IMPROVE TO P6SM. CIGS HOWEVER, WILL REMAIN BELOW IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 23Z, GO UP INTO VFR CONDITIONS NEAR OVC030, AND THEN GO
AGAIN DOWN TO IFR CIGS AROUND OVC010 ABOUT 11/08Z. MORE DENSE FOG
WITH 1/2SM FG IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING AFTER 10Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 37 55 42 / 0 10 0 10
GCK 50 33 56 37 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 57 35 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 53 36 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 43 32 51 40 / 0 10 0 10
P28 47 39 53 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
403 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR RDG
STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW NEWD TOWARD HUDSON BAY...SUPPORTING A
SFC RDG AXIS FM JAMES BAY SWWD INTO WI. LOCAL 12Z RAOBS UNDER THIS
RDG AXIS SHOW A SHARP INVRN BTWN ABOUT H925 AND H95...WITH HI RH BLO
THIS SHARP INVRN. SFC OBS/STLT IMAGERY INDICATE THE LO CLDS HAVE
FINALLY DISSIPATED OVER UPR MI CLOSER TO THE CORE OF DRIER LLVL AIR
IN ONTARIO. THE LO CLD IS MORE EXTENSIVE OVER MN AND THE SW HALF OF
WI...CLOSER TO SOMEWHAT HIER INVRN TO H9/DEEPER LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z MPX RAOB. THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS STREAMING ACRS THE CWA IN
THE NNW FLOW E OF UPR RDG AXIS...BUT THE 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS ARE SO
DRY IN THE MID LVLS THESE CLDS ARE THIN...AND THERE IS NO PCPN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LO CLD TRENDS/IMPACT
ON TEMPS.
TNGT...AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER NEAR JAMES BAY SHIFTS TO THE NE...
ANOTHER HI CENTER AT THE SW EDGE OF THE RDG AXIS OVER WI IS PROGGED
TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE LLVL WIND FIELD OVER THE UPR
LKS. THE RESULT WL BE A SHIFT IN LLVL WIND DIRECTION TO A MORE W-NW
FLOW. THIS CHANGE SHOULD ALLOW A RETURN OF THE MORE EXTENSIVE LO
CLDS NOW DOMINATING MN AND WRN LK SUP. THE LO CLDS WL SLOWEST IN
RETURNING TO THE E AND SCENTRAL CWA...SO EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS
NEAR THE LO END OF GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA. SINCE THESE LO TEMPS ARE
FCST TO FALL THRU FAIRLY HI DEWPTS OBSVD THIS AFTN WITH LGT WINDS
UNDER THE HI PRES RDG...ADDED SOME FOG TO SOME PLACES IN THESE
AREAS. ALSO OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DZ
OVER THE KEWEENAW LATE WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE W WIND
COMPONENT WITHIN SHALLOW MSTR WEDGE/ LOWEST TEMPS NEAR -7C AT LO
INVRN BASE INADEQUATE TO ENSURE ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION.
THU...WITH LLVL NW FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE UNDER PERSISTENT UPR
RDG/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT THE MOST LO CLD COVER IN AREAS
OVER THE W AND E DOWNWIND OF LK SUP. LINGERING FOG/FREEZING DZ AND
FLURRIES EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MRNG. THE
SCENTRAL CWA INFLUENCED BY THE DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW WL SEE THE MOST
SUNSHINE. MIXING TO JUST H925 YIELDS HI TEMPS RISING INTO THE 30S IN
THESE AREAS THAT HAVE MORE SUN...BUT MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE LOWER WHERE
THERE ARE MORE CLDS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014
THE ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT...00Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHT VALUES EXCEED
ANYTHING SEEN DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN 1979-2009 ON THE
CFSR. THUS...THE AREA WILL BE EXPERIENCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA TO START THE PERIOD (FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) WILL BE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH SATURDAY LEADING TO THE RIDGE TO
LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...THAT WARMING
PERIOD WILL SEE HIGHS GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH THE 30S FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK AND IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. THE ONE
ITEM OF CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ALTHOUGH THE AREA BROKE
OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE LOW
CLOUDS OVER MINNESOTA TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND SLOWLY SHIFT BACK
TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS THROUGH. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE
SOLUTIONS WITH THIS...BUT LIKE THE IDEA SHOWN BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MOVING OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY.
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
AND PULL ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE U.P. FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING UNTIL A SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THAT WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY
DREARY PERIOD WITH LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE/FOG. WILL LEAN
ON THE BETTER PERFORMING RAW MODEL GUIDANCE (IN THESE LOW CLOUD
SITUATIONS) FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUS...IF ANY DRIZZLE OCCURS IT SHOULD STAY IN LIQUID FORM
UNLESS IF FALLS ON ANY UNTREATED OR EXISTING COLD SURFACES.
THE ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH (STRETCHING FROM A LOW IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY) WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO COLDER AIR
GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA...WILL SHOW A WEST/EAST TRANSITION TO
MORE FROZEN PRECIPITATION MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVAL...MAY BE SOME STRUGGLE FOR ICE
CRYSTALS INITIALLY UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR
ARRIVE...GENERALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT.
ONE INTERESTING ITEM FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK IS THE
INTERACTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THE MODELS VARY ON THE HANDLING OF THESE WAVES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT EITHER WAY IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR TUESDAY AND DEPARTING WEDNESDAY (WHILE AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY).
THESE VARYING SOLUTIONS LEAD TO A WIDE VARIETY OF IDEAS ON WHEN THE
COLD AIR MOVES IN AND HOW COLD THE 850MB TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT THE 850MB TEMP ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MEAN...THERE
IS AN EXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN GEFS MEMBERS WITH THE MEAN
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE 12Z GFS. THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
ALSO SHOWS A LITTLE WARMER IDEA FOR THAT PERIOD...BUT THEN THE 12Z
ECMWF TRENDED COLDER AND TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS. WITH MODELS USUALLY
STRUGGLING ON THE INTERACTION OF SHORTWAVES AT THAT TIME
RANGE...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS (ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS) THAN SHOWN BY THE RAW MODELS. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW LOW END
CHANCE POPS TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LES. IF THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES PAN OUT AND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...COULD SEE
PERIODS OF STRONGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE SNOW BELTS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014
ALTHOUGH SOME LO CLDS LINGER OVER UPR MI...LOWERING INVRN BASE IN
THE PRESENCE OF SOME DAYTIME HEATING...AND DOWNSLOPE SW WIND
COMPONENT AT IWD...HAVE FINALLY CAUSED THESE CLDS TO DIMINISH A BIT.
THERE COULD BE SOME LO CIGS AT TIMES THIS AFTN...BUT EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. BUT AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE W TNGT IN
THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING...MORE EXTENSIVE LO CLDS OVER MN/
WRN LK SUP WL RETURN. THE LOWEST LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME FZDZ/
FLURRIES WL IMPACT CMX LATE TNGT/THU MRNG...WHEN AND WHERE THE W
WIND WL PRESENT A SHARPER UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. WITH A DOWNSLOPE
WIND...SAW HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO AVOID THE LOWER CONDITIONS FOR A
LONGER TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014
LIGHT WINDS UNDER A SURFACE HI PRES RIDGE WILL BECOME NW AND
INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS ON THU AND THU NIGHT AS A HI CENTER
STRENGTHENS IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS HI SHIFTS
TO THE E THRU THE WEEKEND...THIS FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SW BUT REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH UNUSUALLY HI STABILITY OVER THE WATERS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MON...N WINDS WILL INCREASE
UP TO 25-30 KTS UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF HI PRES
MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
332 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR RDG
STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW NEWD TOWARD HUDSON BAY...SUPPORTING A
SFC RDG AXIS FM JAMES BAY SWWD INTO WI. LOCAL 12Z RAOBS UNDER THIS
RDG AXIS SHOW A SHARP INVRN BTWN ABOUT H925 AND H95...WITH HI RH BLO
THIS SHARP INVRN. SFC OBS/STLT IMAGERY INDICATE THE LO CLDS HAVE
FINALLY DISSIPATED OVER UPR MI CLOSER TO THE CORE OF DRIER LLVL AIR
IN ONTARIO. THE LO CLD IS MORE EXTENSIVE OVER MN AND THE SW HALF OF
WI...CLOSER TO SOMEWHAT HIER INVRN TO H9/DEEPER LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z MPX RAOB. THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS STREAMING ACRS THE CWA IN
THE NNW FLOW E OF UPR RDG AXIS...BUT THE 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS ARE SO
DRY IN THE MID LVLS THESE CLDS ARE THIN...AND THERE IS NO PCPN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LO CLD TRENDS/IMPACT
ON TEMPS.
TNGT...AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER NEAR JAMES BAY SHIFTS TO THE NE...
ANOTHER HI CENTER AT THE SW EDGE OF THE RDG AXIS OVER WI IS PROGGED
TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE LLVL WIND FIELD OVER THE UPR
LKS. THE RESULT WL BE A SHIFT IN LLVL WIND DIRECTION TO A MORE W-NW
FLOW. THIS CHANGE SHOULD ALLOW A RETURN OF THE MORE EXTENSIVE LO
CLDS NOW DOMINATING MN AND WRN LK SUP. THE LO CLDS WL SLOWEST IN
RETURNING TO THE E AND SCENTRAL CWA...SO EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS
NEAR THE LO END OF GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA. SINCE THESE LO TEMPS ARE
FCST TO FALL THRU FAIRLY HI DEWPTS OBSVD THIS AFTN WITH LGT WINDS
UNDER THE HI PRES RDG...ADDED SOME FOG TO SOME PLACES IN THESE
AREAS. ALSO OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DZ
OVER THE KEWEENAW LATE WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE W WIND
COMPONENT WITHIN SHALLOW MSTR WEDGE/ LOWEST TEMPS NEAR -7C AT LO
INVRN BASE INADEQUATE TO ENSURE ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION.
THU...WITH LLVL NW FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE UNDER PERSISTENT UPR
RDG/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT THE MOST LO CLD COVER IN AREAS
OVER THE W AND E DOWNWIND OF LK SUP. LINGERING FOG/FREEZING DZ AND
FLURRIES EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MRNG. THE
SCENTRAL CWA INFLUENCED BY THE DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW WL SEE THE MOST
SUNSHINE. MIXING TO JUST H925 YIELDS HI TEMPS RISING INTO THE 30S IN
THESE AREAS THAT HAVE MORE SUN...BUT MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE LOWER WHERE
THERE ARE MORE CLDS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
THE LONG ADVERTISED CHANGE TO A MILD WEATHER PATTERN IS WELL
UNDERWAY AS POSTIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF CANADA...CAUSING ARCTIC AIR TO RETREAT WELL
TO THE N. WHILE WARMTH DURING THE LONG TERM WILL PEAK OVER THE
WEEKEND AS AN ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
(500MB HEIGHT/850MB TEMP ANOMALIES PEAK AT 2.5 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE LONG TERM MID DEC AVG)...AN OVERALL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMP REGIME IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU AND WELL BEYOND THIS 7
DAY FCST. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES OUT TO DAY 16...CHRISTMAS DAY...
SHOW A TENDENCY TOWARD A COOLER PATTERN IN THE FEW DAYS BEFORE
CHRISTMAS...BUT THERE ARE ONLY A FEW RUNS SHOWING A RETURN TO A
COLD/BLO NORMAL TEMP REGIME. THE CFSV2 RUNS ALSO STRONGLY SUGGEST
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE THRU AT LEAST CHRISTMAS. SO...AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A MILD PATTERN IS LOCKING IN FOR QUITE A
WHILE...AND AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS...MOST DAYS WILL FEATURE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THIS PATTERN ALSO DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
ANY STORM SYSTEMS THAT WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT PCPN IN THE UPPER
LAKES REGION. WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AFTER SEVERAL DRY
DAYS...PCPN THAT OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AND AT LEAST SOME OF THE PCPN WILL
FALL AS RA/DZ.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PATTERN WILL BE A SLOWLY EVOLVING ONE AS
CURRENT E COAST STORM SYSTEM BECOMES CUTOFF FROM RETREATING FLOW TO
THE N. WHILE THIS MID LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND NEW ENGLAND FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THE BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA WILL SLOWLY
BUILD/SHARPEN UP AND DRIFT E...REACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY SETTLING OVER THE
UPPER LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THRU THU BEFORE IT SETTLES
S AND E. ALL THIS SPELLS A DRY/QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR UPPER MI.
BIG FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND THUS ALSO TEMPS AS LIGHT
FLOW UNDER AND IN THE VCNTY OF THE SFC RIDGE LIMITS ADVECTION. IF
THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS DOESN`T BREAK UP MUCH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY/TONIGHT...THE LOW
CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE AREA INTO FRI THOUGH THERE WILL BE
LOCAL CLEARING...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT SEE DOWNSLOPING. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW (1000 FOOT OR SO DEPTH)...MID DAY SUN ANGLE
IS ESSENTIALLY THE LOWEST OF THE YEAR...LIMITING POTENTIAL OF MIXING
THE MOISTURE OUT. SO...FCST HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDED TO A MORE
PESSIMISTIC SKY OUTLOOK FOR THU INTO FRI. W TO NW WINDS DO PICK UP
ON THU AND THAT SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN MORE SUNSHINE IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN CNTRL UPPER MI. CONVERSELY...NW FLOW AND
UPSLOPING INTO THE ERN FCST AREA WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS IN THAT AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO HANG ON OVER MOST OF WRN
UPPER MI. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THU NIGHT. FRI MAY OFFER A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPS ARE
OBVIOUSLY VERY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUDS. STAYED A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH DAYTIME WARMING AND NIGHTTIME COOLING...HIGHS
GENERALLY LWR 30S THU...MID 30S FRI WITH LOWS THU NIGHT MOSTLY UPPER
TEENS AND 20S.
OVER THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT VERY LIGHT PCPN AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NE INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AT LEAST
INITIALLY...HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THIS PCPN GIVEN THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE
INDICATED MOISTURE AND SHARP MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. IF THERE
IS ANY PCPN SAT NIGHT...IT WOULD BE PATCHY -DZ. WITH EXPECTED LOW
CLOUDS/MILD AIR MASS...TEMPS ARE NOT LIKELY TO FALL BLO FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WITH HEIGHTS FALLING SUN AND SOME INDICATION OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE AREA...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY -RA AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS SAT/SUN SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S/LWR 40S.
SUN NIGHT THRU TUE...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN SPLIT FLOW SHOULD
BRING SOME PCPN INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN THE SRN BRANCH...ONE WAVE
WILL TRACK FROM KS/OK TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE IN THE NRN BRANCH A
WAVE WILL SWING FROM MANITOBA ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES REGION. IN
RECENT DAYS...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE EXHIBITED SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW MUCH INTERACTION MAY OCCUR BTWN THE 2 WAVES WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE NRN STREAM TO DIG ENOUGH TO PICK UP SRN STREAM MOISTURE...
LEADING TO SOMETHING MORE THAN JUST LIGHT PCPN SUN NIGHT THRU MON.
THAT SEEMS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY GIVEN THE MAJORITY OF RUNS KEEPING
BRANCHES MORE SEPARATE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN
LATER MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT CHC POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN BEGINNING SUN NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO -SN FROM NW TO SE LATE
SUN NIGHT/MON AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT LES OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND SYSTEM INTO TUE IF AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA IS
COLD ENOUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014
ALTHOUGH SOME LO CLDS LINGER OVER UPR MI...LOWERING INVRN BASE IN
THE PRESENCE OF SOME DAYTIME HEATING...AND DOWNSLOPE SW WIND
COMPONENT AT IWD...HAVE FINALLY CAUSED THESE CLDS TO DIMINISH A BIT.
THERE COULD BE SOME LO CIGS AT TIMES THIS AFTN...BUT EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. BUT AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE W TNGT IN
THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING...MORE EXTENSIVE LO CLDS OVER MN/
WRN LK SUP WL RETURN. THE LOWEST LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME FZDZ/
FLURRIES WL IMPACT CMX LATE TNGT/THU MRNG...WHEN AND WHERE THE W
WIND WL PRESENT A SHARPER UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. WITH A DOWNSLOPE
WIND...SAW HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO AVOID THE LOWER CONDITIONS FOR A
LONGER TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014
LIGHT WINDS UNDER A SURFACE HI PRES RIDGE WILL BECOME NW AND
INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS ON THU AND THU NIGHT AS A HI CENTER
STRENGTHENS IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS HI SHIFTS
TO THE E THRU THE WEEKEND...THIS FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SW BUT REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH UNUSUALLY HI STABILITY OVER THE WATERS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MON...N WINDS WILL INCREASE
UP TO 25-30 KTS UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF HI PRES
MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1214 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
A SOLID OVERCAST STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO COVER ALL OF LOWER MI AND
MOST OF LAKE HURON. A MOIST NNE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON UNDER A DEEP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT IN SUSTAINING THESE CLOUDS.
CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 1K TO 2K FT RANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
INVERSION BASE LOWERED. DESPITE ONGOING LOWERING OF THE INVERSION
BASE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
IN SUSTAINING BASES ABOVE 1K FT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO AN EROSION OF THESE CLOUDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR DTW...TIMING OF THE CLEARING WORKING INTO METRO LATER TODAY
CARRIES A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS CLEARING MAY NOT ENTER METRO DETROIT
UNTIL THIS EVENING AROUND OR AFTER 22Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CLEARING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1032 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
UPDATE...
RAOBS FROM KDTX AND KAPX THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP
ENOUGH LAYER OF SATURATION UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION TO
MAINTAIN STRATUS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. MEAN NORTHERLY FLOW UNDER
THIS INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE OFF LAKE HURON
TODAY...BEFORE FLOW MAKES A SLOW AND SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW STRATUS TO ERODE VERY
SLOWLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND
12Z DATA FROM THE NAM AND RAP SUPPORT A SLOWER CLEARING TREND AND
FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO REFLECT LATER TIMING.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 359 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY EFFICIENT FLUX OF MOISTURE OFF LAKE
HURON OVERNIGHT...LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CEILINGS LOWERING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE INVERSION BASE LOWERS. HERE AT THE NWS
OFFICE...THIS IS LEADING TO PRECIP FALLING MORE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. BASED ON THE CURRENT OBSERVED INTENSITY AND WITH
AN EXPECTED DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
DRIER SFC AIR FUNNELS IN FROM THE NORTH...IMPACTS FROM ANY LINGERING
FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE MINOR AND NOT JUSTIFY
A HEADLINE.
THE LOWERING INVERSION BASE IS RESULTING FROM INCREASED LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE FROM MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING OVER LOWER MI.
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER SE MI.
THIS WAVE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...FURTHER INCREASING
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
SUSTAINING A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION /AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z KAPX
SOUNDING/. THIS AND MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON UNDER A NNE LOW
LEVEL FLOW HAS HELD A SOLID LOW STRATUS DECK OVER MOST OF LOWER MI.
SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE INVERSION BASE IS NOW ONGOING
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THIS EXTREMELY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION BASE WILL ADVANCE INTO SRN MI TODAY. THE FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO BACK TOWARD THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON
/LESSONING THE INFLUENCE OFF LAKE HURON/ AND BECOME SLIGHTLY
DIVERGENT. THESE FACTORS WILL OFFER AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A CLEARING OF
THE LOW CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A VERY SLOW DECLINE THIS MORNING AS
THE CLOUDS AND STRONG GRADIENT FLOW SUPPRESS THE NEAR SURFACE
COOLING. A SHALLOW THERMAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER SE MI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING JUST A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPS FROM MORNING
READINGS /ASSUMING AN EARLIER CLEARING DOES NOT OCCUR/. DESPITE THE
EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AMBIENT AIRMASS TONIGHT...THE NORTHWEST
GRADIENT WILL ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THE RETROGRESSION OF
THE NEW ENGLAND STORM SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WELL...THE CONSENSUS THAT HAD BEEN SOLIDIFIED WITH THE 09.12Z NWP
OFFERING IN REGARDS TO A MORE EASTERN PRECIPITATION SOLUTION
THURSDAY...WAS THROWN INTO DOUBT AGAIN...THIS TIME WITH THE 10.00Z
NAM SOLUTION. THE NAM SOLUTION IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIGHT SNOW
WILL IN FACT BACK ACROSS LAKE HURON BRUSHING SHORELINE AREAS OF THE
THUMB FROM APPROXIMATELY 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. THIS HAS
ALWAYS BEEN AND REMAINS A TOUCHY FORECAST AS THE AMOUNT OF DEEP DRY
AIR WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE FLANKING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SET A HARD EDGE AND A TIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADIENT. THE ECMWF WHICH
HAD BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...MOVED OFF OF THE
POSSIBILITY EARLIER. THERE SEEMS TO BE A NUMBER OF FACTORS THAT MAY
ALLOW FOR THE DEEP MOISTURE/LIGHT SNOW TO UNRAVEL AND MAKE IT BACK
TO THE EXTREME EASTERN THUMB COUNTIES. THE FIRST IS THE MAIN JET
BRANCH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BREAKS AWAY TODAY...CAUSING A
PSEUDO LONGWAVE CUTOFF. THE SECOND IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JETLET THAT
WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE JAMES BAY REGION AND CYCLONICALLY ROTATE
DOWN THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THE THIRD IS THE
COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH SODAK THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISISIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE DAMPENING OF HEIGHTS THAT WILL OCCUR
FROM THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE AFOREMENTION JETLET IN CANADA DIVING
SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MAIN MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO WOBBLE THROUGH
MICHIGAN AND STRENGTHEN. THEREFORE...DO NOT WANT TO MOVE COMPLETELY
AWAY FROM THE POSSIBILITY THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL BRUSH THE THUMB.
REINTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE POP FOR PORTIONS OF HURON/SANILAC/ST CLAIR
COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOW AN
OUTSTANDING UPPER LEVEL FRONTAL/LOW STABILITY STRUCTURE THAT
WOULD...CONDITIONALLY...BE SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL OMEGA
BLOCK/RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DRY AIR
AND A VERY STABLE PROFILE WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL CAUSE QUIET
WEATHER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY
MODERATE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE WILL WASH
ACROSS THE STATE.
MARINE...
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
HAS STRENGTHENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A
MARGINAL GALE EVENT OVER THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON. A GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED SOUTH OF HARBOR BEACH. THE GALE WARNING WILL
THEN CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN OCCLUDING OF THE SURFACE
LOW WILL ALLOW THE LOW CENTER TO ARCH BACK TO THE NW INTO PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK STATE AND VERMONT BY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ACTUALLY ALLOW WINDS TO SOLIDLY INCREASE ABOVE 35 KNOTS ON THURSDAY
FOR THE OPEN LAKE WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AS A PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ442-443-463-464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....HLO
UPDATE.......HLO
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1145 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES...WHICH WILL
HELP REINFORCE THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS MEANS THE LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BE GOING
ABSOLUTELY NO WHERE DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR WITH
SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO FAR WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHT
VEERING OF THE WINDS TODAY SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF THE DRIER AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY WEST OF I-29 TO PUSH EAST INTO MN.
HOWEVER...WITH STRATUS RAPIDLY EXPANDING ACROSS KS...SE NEB AND SRN
IA...THIS CLEARING MAY VERY WELL NOT MATERIALIZE. GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...FURTHER REDUCED HIGHS TODAY AND
INCREASED LOWS FOR TONIGHT AS ANY SORT OF DIURNAL TREND WITH TEMPS
WILL BE PRETTY MINIMAL. FOR VISIBILITIES TONIGHT...EXPECT A REPEAT
OF WHAT WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW...WITH HAZY CONDITIONS AND
VISIBILITIES MAINLY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES AND THE SPORADIC 1/4 OR
1/2SM IN FG . NOT EXPECTING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO
INCREASE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN WE START SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN SFC DEWPOINTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEIGHT RISES DUE TO LONG WAVE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE LATE THIS WEEK. THE 10.00Z/06Z GFS AND 10.00Z ECMWF HAVE
500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 576M BY 00Z SATURDAY...EXCEPTIONALLY
HIGH FOR MID DECEMBER. THIS MEANS WARMER TEMPS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY-SATURDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...ALL THE ADDED MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A LOT OF
CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER
WARMING AND LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...IT WILL HOWEVER...KEEP
NIGHTTIME LOWS QUITE MILD. THESE MILD DECEMBER TEMPS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE FOG/DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE WHAT SNOW COVER REMAINS IN MN/WI. DRIZZLE LOOKS
TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN ADVANCING
SURFACE TROUGH. DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH AND SLOWLY
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM 12Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY. IN
ADDITION TO DEEPER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LIFT TO HELP
GENERATE LIGHT RAIN AND SMALL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ON SUNDAY AS
OPPOSED TO THE MUCH SMALLER DRIZZLE DROPS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
THE EVOLUTION OF TWO DISTINCT WAVES /ONE NORTH AND ONE SOUTH/ EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DICTATE HOW LONG WE HOLD ONTO PRECIP MON-TUE. PRIOR
TO LAST NIGHT`S RUN...THE ECMWF HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY SOUTH WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THEREFORE TOOK A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS IA/MO. WE WERE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO SEE
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH TIME AND SLOWLY
MIGRATE TOWARD THE ECMWF. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 10.00Z ECMWF TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH AND NOW HAS HEALTHY QPF FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WI. AGAIN...THIS IS THE SOUTHERN
WAVE...WHICH IS THE SAME SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING WILD WEATHER TO
THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING
A LARGE AMOUNT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THIS
ADVANCING TROUGH...SO WHATEVER MODEL BEST HANDLES THE RAINFALL AND
LATENT HEAT RELEASE OUT WEST WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE MOST ACCURATE
DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER/FOG/DRIZZLE ARE A GOOD BET
FRI-SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
REPRIEVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY.
HOWEVER...THE INVERSION AROUND 2000FT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN...AND
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BRINGING IN MOISTURE...SO NOT TOO
OPTIMISTIC ON WIDESPREAD IMPROVEMENT.
KMSP...
IFR/LIFR THROUGHOUT. IN LINE WITH THE GENERAL DISCUSSION...NOT
ANTICIPATING CEILINGS IMPROVING ABOVE 1000FT UNTIL PERHAPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS TAKE ON A SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...IFR CIGS. WINDS S 5KTS.
SAT...IFR/LIFR WITH -DZ/FG. WINDS SSW 5-10KTS.
SUN...IFR/LIFR WITH -DZ/FG EARLY...THEN IFR LATE. WINDS SW AT
5-10KTS BECOMING NW AT 10G20KTS LATE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1145 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1049 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2014
Do not expect much more than about a 2-5 degree rise in temperatures
the rest of today. Latest aircraft sounding data from KSTL is
showing a strong inversion between 900-800mb which usually
supports keeping the low clouds in all day during the cool season.
That along with the weak cold air advection with the east to
northeast winds should keep the temperatures in the 30s over most
of the area. Kept the mention of sprinkles over parts of central
and southeast Missouri this afternoon. Water vapor is currently
showing the upper low moving southeastward into northwest
Missouri. Latest RAP run does show some ascent over the southwest
part of the CWA this afternoon that does support the mention of
these sprinkles.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 204 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2014
Another cloudy day is expected as low level flow remains northeast
with solid layer of stratus stretching into the Great Lakes.
Temperatures will remain seasonal with highs in the upper 30s.
Can`t rule out a few sprinkles across central Missouri this
afternoon as a small upper level shortwave moves south from Iowa.
CVKING
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2014
Clouds and more clouds as we head toward the weekend. The model
guidance has been consistent in showing very high relative
humidity levels in the 900 to 925mb layer through Saturday. I know
we could all use a little sunshine, but we may have to wait until
Sunday afternoon to see any breaks in the stratus. Regardless the
temperatures should slowly moderate above normal as we head into
the weekend as heights rise across the central CONUS.
Next major storm system should lift from the southwest CONUS
across the Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley early next
week. Precipitation should be all rain, with temperatures dropping
back to near normal levels by next Tuesday.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2014
Expect MVFR ceilings through the TAF period. A weak upper level
disturbance will move southeastward across central Missouri this
afternoon which may bring a few light sprinkles to KCOU this
afternoon between 21-24Z. However chance is too low to include in
the TAF and conditions are likely to remain VFR if it does occur.
A surface ridge will move across the area causing winds to turn
light and variable.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect MVFR ceilings to continue the next 30
hours. Winds are expected to turn light and variable by tonight as
a surface high moves into area.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1049 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1049 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2014
Do not expect much more than about a 2-5 degree rise in temperatures
the rest of today. Latest aircraft sounding data from KSTL is
showing a strong inversion between 900-800mb which usually
supports keeping the low clouds in all day during the cool season.
That along with the weak cold air advection with the east to
northeast winds should keep the temperatures in the 30s over most
of the area. Kept the mention of sprinkles over parts of central
and southeast Missouri this afternoon. Water vapor is currently
showing the upper low moving southeastward into northwest
Missouri. Latest RAP run does show some ascent over the southwest
part of the CWA this afternoon that does support the mention of
these sprinkles.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 204 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2014
Another cloudy day is expected as low level flow remains northeast
with solid layer of stratus stretching into the Great Lakes.
Temperatures will remain seasonal with highs in the upper 30s.
Can`t rule out a few sprinkles across central Missouri this
afternoon as a small upper level shortwave moves south from Iowa.
CVKING
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2014
Clouds and more clouds as we head toward the weekend. The model
guidance has been consistent in showing very high relative
humidity levels in the 900 to 925mb layer through Saturday. I know
we could all use a little sunshine, but we may have to wait until
Sunday afternoon to see any breaks in the stratus. Regardless the
temperatures should slowly moderate above normal as we head into
the weekend as heights rise across the central CONUS.
Next major storm system should lift from the southwest CONUS
across the Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley early next
week. Precipitation should be all rain, with temperatures dropping
back to near normal levels by next Tuesday.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 426 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2014
Strong low pressure over the eastern US will keep a cyclonic flow
over the Midwest resulting in a lot of clouds and prevailing MVFR.
Plus an upper level system will move through Wednesday and it may
kick off a sprinkle or two, but not enough to put into any
terminals for now. Models try to lift clouds to above MVFR this
afternoon but not optimistic this will happen given the NE surface
flow and cyclonic pattern. Plus models try to breakout clouds late
tonight into Thursday. If it happens that looks like the best
time.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR conditions will likely prevail through
the forecast period. Models try to breakout clouds late tonight
into Thursday, but given the pattern, and NE surface wind, not
optimistic this will happen. Will go with persistence for now.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
246 PM CST WED DEC 10 2014
.SHORT TERM... (THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 10 2014
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE PROBABILITY OF
DENSE FOG AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING UNTIL MID
MORNING ON THURSDAY. THERE IS THEN CONCERN AS TOO HOW QUICKLY THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT OR IF WE WILL EVEN SEE ANY
SUNSHINE...WHICH HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON OUR THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
TONIGHT...THE HRRR AND SREF BOTH INDICATE A MODEST CHANCE OF DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT WEST OF INTERSTATE 80 BEGINNING THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME...BUT WOULD CERTAINLY NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT LEAST SOME LOCAL
AREAS SEE DENSE FOG TONIGHT GIVEN THE HIGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. THE CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD START TO LOWER AND THE FOG
DEVELOP ONCE WE SEE DIURNAL COOLING OF THE NEAR SFC LAYER THIS
EVENING. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
SOME...AND WILL BE GOING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT STILL BELOW
FREEZING. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME OF THAT FROZEN FOG AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN MORE WHITE TREES AND PERHAPS A FEW
SLICK SPOTS ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
THURSDAY...THE FOG WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT/BURN OFF...BUT THERE IS LESS
CERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FOG WILL LIFT AND IF THE CLOUDS WILL
EVEN BE ABLE TO BURN OFF ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN FACT...AM GOING
TO GO MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH FORECAST HIGHS ON THURSDAY GIVEN
INCREASING BELIEF THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS. EVEN IF THE LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP SOME BY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TIME FOR MUCH
WARMING TO OCCUR. THE NAM MODEL HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT WITH HIGH
RH VALUES INDICATIVE OF A LOW CLOUD DECK FROM AROUND 900 MB TO THE
SFC. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
DRIZZLE...BUT WILL IMPACT HIGHS. THEREFORE...WILL NOW BE CALLING FOR
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S EAST OF HWY 281 TO THE MID AND UPPER
40S WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...WHICH IS A GOOD DEAL COOLER THAN WE HAD IN
THE FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO.
.MID TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 10 2014
THIS 48-HOUR PERIOD IS EFFECTIVELY THE "RELATIVE CALM" BEFORE THE
POTENTIALLY MORE IMPACTFUL SUNDAY-MONDAY STORM SYSTEM DESCRIBED IN
THE LONG-TERM SECTION BELOW. EVEN SO...THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A
LARGELY DREARY...AND AT TIMES FOGGY/DRIZZLY PERIOD...AND THE ODDS OF
SEEING MUCH SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE LOOKING PRETTY SLIM.
DESPITE THE OVERALL-GLOOMY WEATHER PATTERN...AT LEAST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE SEASONABLY MILD SIDE...WITH HIGHS FRI/SAT CURRENTLY
AIMED INTO THE 50S...AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT HOLDING UP INTO THE 40S
MOST AREAS...POTENTIALLY SETTING RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS FOR DEC. 13TH
AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORD SITES GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS. DESPITE
THE MILDER READINGS...THIS FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND FROM
PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF SHAVING ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES OFF HIGHS
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AND AS EVIDENCED BY WHAT HAPPENED JUST TODAY...ITS
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT FURTHER DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF
AREAS REMAIN SOCKED IN UNDER LOW STRATUS.
IN TERMS OF WEATHER HAZARDS...FORTUNATELY ANY DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN
THAT FALLS DURING THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE OF THE NON-FREEZING
VARIETY. THAT LEAVES NIGHT-TIME/MORNING FOG AS THE PARAMOUNT
CONCERN...AND WHETHER OR NOT IT BECOMES DENSE (VISIBILITY 1/4 MILE
OR LESS). ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN NAM/SREF VISIBILITY
PROGS THAT DENSE FOG IS A POSSIBILITY BOTH NIGHTS IN AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE CWA...ITS JUST TOO SOON TO PINPOINT WITH ANY CONFIDENCE...SO
WILL CALL FOR GENERIC "PATCHY" OR "AREAS" OF FOG AT THIS TIME AND
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID) THAT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS TO LESS THAN 1 MILE ARE POSSIBLE (IF NOT PROBABLE).
GETTING INTO MORE DETAIL NOW IN 12-HOUR BLOCKS...
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...THE BIG MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE FEATURES A
SEEMINGLY "QUIET" PATTERN WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE SCALE RIDGE. HOWEVER...THERE IS MORE GOING ON DOWN CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE. MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST HERE...AS
HAVE MAINTAINED EITHER A PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG MENTION THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT...AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT-
BUT-STEADY 5-10 MPH BREEZES COULD WORK AGAINST WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES...BUT THAT IS YET TO BE SEEN. AS FOR DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...IT
IS LOOKING A BIT LESS FAVORABLE THAN IT DID 24 HOURS AGO DUE TO THE
DEPTH OF SATURATION TOPPING OUT CLOSER TO ONE-HALF KILOMETER (KM)
THAN 1 KM IN THE LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT WAS UNWILLING
TO YANK IT FROM THE FORECAST YET AND WILL LET NEXT FEW SHIFTS TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK. DID HOWEVER "DOWNGRADE" THE PROBABILITY OF DRIZZLE
FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE...AND KEPT IT IN KS ZONES ONLY PRE-
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE EXPANDING IT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NEB
ZONES POST-MIDNIGHT. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...FOG SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT THAN DRIZZLE. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW TEMPS...KEEPING
MOST OF THE CWA UP INTO THE MID- UPPER 30S...EXCEPT FOR COLDER
READINGS CLOSER TO 30 IN FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRIDAY DAYTIME...THE HEART OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
TRANSITIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BUT DOWN LOW THE STORY REMAINS
MUCH THE SAME. LEANING TOWARD THE 12Z NAM DEPICTION MORE THAN
ANYTHING...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA...AND EVEN THOUGH SKY COVER WAS
INCREASED IT COULD PROBABLY TREND HIGHER. OF COURSE...BRIEF POCKETS
OF SUNSHINE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. SOUTHERLY BREEZES
GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. AS FOR FOG/DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL...CONTINUED BOTH OF THESE ELEMENTS INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING
HOURS OUT OF THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT BASED ON THE LACK OF "SPLOTCHY
QPF" INDICATED BY THE 12Z NAM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP FRIDAY AFTERNOON DRIZZLE/FOG FREE AT LEAST FOR NOW. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MADE MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPS...BUT
STILL AIMING FROM LOW 50S NORTHEAST TO MAINLY MID 50S SOUTHWEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT...BY THIS TIME THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS IS STARTING
TO DEPART EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THE LARGE/AMPLIFIED WESTERN TROUGH
STILL REMAINS WELL-WEST...WITH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ONLY REACHING
THE SOUTHERN CA/AZ BORDER AREA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. NEAR/AT THE
SURFACE...THE SAME MOIST/WIDESPREAD CLOUDY AIRMASS CONTINUES...AND
BY THIS TIME MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD BE INCREASING ENOUGH TO MAKE
DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY AND HAVE GONE WITH "CHANCE" WORDING HERE INSTEAD
OF JUST SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE NIGHT BEFORE. ALSO BLANKETED THE ENTIRE
CWA WITH AREAS OF FOG POTENTIAL. ASSUMING THAT TEMPS DURING THE
PRECEDING DAY WARM AS MUCH AS PROGGED...THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE
DROP-OFF FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE QUITE-MILD LOWS AIMED INTO THE LOW-
MID 40S MOST AREAS.
SATURDAY DAYTIME...IN SOME WAYS THIS RESEMBLES A SOMEWHAT
MILD/"HUMID" EARLY SPRING DAY...AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY
AIMED TO RISE WELL INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S AND POTENTIALLY EVEN LOW
50S IN SOME PLACES. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN VORT MAX WITHIN THE EXPANSIVE
WESTERN CONUS LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH...CURRENT
NAM/GFS/ECMWF RUNS ONLY BRING IT TO NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA BY DAYS
END...WITH LITTLE IF ANY LARGE-SCALE FORCING INFLUENCING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS YET. THIS MEANS THAT ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRIVEN BY SHALLOW PROCESSES WITHIN THE LAYER STRATUS DECK. COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS 24-36 HOURS...SATURDAY DAYTIME APPEARS TO HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY EVEN MEASURABLE
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THUS OPTED TO
CONTINUE AN OFFICIAL 20 PERCENT MEASURABLE POP IN THIS PERIOD. AS
WITH FRIDAY...SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS AND MAYBE NOT QUITE
ENOUGH...BUT NOW HAVE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 10 2014
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...00Z SUNDAY...HAS NOT SEEN ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MODELS...WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS FROM ERN TX NORTH INTO
ONTARIO...WHILE TROUGHING DIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEAR WATCHING IN THE
COMING DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF
CO...WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING N/NE INTO THE DAKOTAS...KEEPING
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS GOING ACROSS THE CWA. THE STREAM OF INCREASED
WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH INTO THE AREA...KEEPING PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AROUND...ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING WILL BE
MILD WITH 40S AND A FEW 50S CURRENTLY FORECAST.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY CERTAINLY THE MOST INTERESTING TIME TIME FRAME OF
THE PERIOD...AS WE SEE THE ARRIVAL OF THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS...ENDING UP BY 00Z MONDAY ROUGHLY OVER
THE OK/TX PANHANDLE AREA. HOW IT EVOLVES BEYOND THAT AND WHERE ITS
ULTIMATE TRACK ENDS UP WILL DRIVE WHAT OUR CWA SEES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY /PERHAPS LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT?/.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
HAD GENERALLY TAKEN THE SYSTEM ALONG A MORE SOUTHERLY PATH...LEAVING
OUR CWA MORE ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE MAIN ACTIVITY. LOOKING AT THE
12Z RUN OF MODELS TODAY...THE GFS/GEM HAVE A MORE NRN TRACK THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...TAKING THE 500 AND ESP 700MB LOWS ACROSS CENTRAL
KS...IF NOT RIGHT OVER OUR SRN CWA...AND USHERS IN COLDER
AIR/TRANSITION TO SNOW EVERYWHERE QUICKER. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS THE TRACK MORE OVER NRN OK...AND IS A TOUCH
SLOWER WITH THE COLDER AIR. THE START OF THIS EVENT IS STILL 4 DAYS
OUT...SO PLENTY EARLY TO BE BUYING FULL IN TO ANY PARTICULAR MODEL
OR MODEL RUN...AS 24 HRS FROM NOW THEY MAY LOOK DIFFERENT.
HOWEVER...EITHER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR
THE CWA...DIFFERENCE IS IN WHERE THE HEAVIER /SEVERAL INCHES
POTENTIALLY/ COULD END UP. COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BUILDING IN BEHIND A PASSING COLD...THOSE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS PERIOD REALLY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS...LOT OF DETAILS YET TO BE IRONED
OUT. AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURES GO...ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST...WITH LOWER/MID 30S GOING FOR MONDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS IS NOT HIGH....NOT EXPECTING A NOTABLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL AIR MASS...BUT SNOWFALL ON THE GROUND WOULD COMPLICATE
THINGS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS BOTH DAYS REMAIN IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
THIS IS A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH LOW CLOUDS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN FLUCTUATING FLIGHT CATEGORIES FROM LIFR...TO
IFR...TO MVFR ALL BEING LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL STILL SEE NO BETTER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY SOME PERIODS OF CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY TAKE A TURN FOR WORSE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MID THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS PROBABLE DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
MID TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1158 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS CLOUD DECK THAT HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY TO EVEN EXPANDING
AS WE WENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. NUMEROUS FORECAST MODELS
INCLUDING THE RAP...HRRR...AND NAM HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
CLOUD COVER AND KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR ALL
OF OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR OUR VERY FAR WESTERN ZONES LIKE
GOTHENBURG WHERE SUNSHINE MAY PERSIST.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING IN AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
A SMALL AREA OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE CITY OF HASTINGS. LATEST RUNS OF THE SHORT TERM
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP MODEL HAVE JUST NOW BEGUN TO SHOW
THIS LATEST DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI CITIES AND SPREAD NORTHWARD. THEREFORE
ADDED AREAS OF FOG LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN THE FORECAST TO COVER
THIS. THINK WHATEVER FOG DEVELOPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED FOR EACH
LOCATION AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS OVERNIGHT SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE
RIDGE INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN
TO SLIDE EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTH BREEZES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
PATCHY STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND ALSO SOUTH AND INTO PORTIONS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES.
REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS
KEEP ALL REDUCED VISIBILITY OUT OF OUR CWA. ON THE OTHER HAND...NAM
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN PESSIMISTIC WITH FOG THE PAST
FEW DAYS (ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NOT PANNED OUT EACH NIGHT). CURRENT
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE LAYERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO FORM. THUS...WHILE IT IS
POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH SOME MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE A DENSE FOG SCENARIO.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE
IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. AGAIN...MOISTURE FIELDS ARE
DEEPER SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES...WHEN LOOKING AT NAM AND GFS
CROSS SECTIONS. THEREFORE...EXPECTING STRATUS OVER KANSAS TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. SO...HOPEFULLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 40S...WITH UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S UNDER A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NOW...ALL
THAT BEING SAID...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 6Z NAM SEEMS TO BE
COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH...AS IT PROPOSES HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR
TOMORROW! EVEN UNDER COMPLETELY CLOUDY SKIES...SEE ABSOLUTELY NO
REASON WHY WE SHOULD REMAIN AT OUR CURRENT 9Z TEMPERATURES ALL
DAY...WITH EVEN LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW MORNING...INHERITED CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND AREAS OF FOG ELSEWHERE.
AGREE THAT LATEST MODEL RUNS DO SHOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LIGHTS WINDS AND VERY DRY MID LEVELS...ALL POINTING TO A
FREEZING DRIZZLE/ DRIZZLE SITUATION. HOWEVER...AGAIN AS WITH THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SEEM TO BE VERY VERY
SHALLOW...NEARLY PAPER THIN ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS ALSO
RETREATING SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND BECOMING EVEN MORE
SHALLOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. SO WHILE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY...CONFIDENCE IN A LARGE WIDESPREAD AREA OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE AND FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH AT ALL.
THEREFORE...REDUCED WORDING TO PATCHY FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
MORNING AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE SOME DRIZZLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. EARLY IN THE MORNING THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH. BY AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP. THE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING TOO FAR AND THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AND WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE
AROUND WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THE TEMPERATURES RISE AS MUCH.
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR
DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY THERE IS AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
IN THE FORECAST BUT WORRY THAT IT COULD BE MORE OF ANOTHER DAY WITH
SOME DRIZZLE. THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM ADVECTION AND EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAINS A CHALLENGE. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN PAST NIGHTS BUT STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND HOW FAST IT MOVES THROUGH
THE PLAINS. THEREFORE STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST. NOT
AS CONCERNED AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION BECAUSE BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE COLDER
AIR IS A LITTLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
THAT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE WENT WITH RAIN OR SNOW FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND NOT CERTAIN
HOW MUCH SNOW THERE WILL BE BUT THE NORTHWEST COULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE COLD AIR TO SEE HOW MUCH
SNOW THERE WILL BE.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD
AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST WED DEC 10 2014
THIS IS A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH LOW CLOUDS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN FLUCTUATING FLIGHT CATEGORIES FROM LIFR...TO
IFR...TO MVFR ALL BEING LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL STILL SEE NO BETTER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY SOME PERIODS OF CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY TAKE A TURN FOR WORSE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MID THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS PROBABLE DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY