Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/09/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
453 AM PST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST TODAY
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BY THIS EVENING. A CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONGER STORM WILL ARRIVE
AROUND MID WEEK AND PROMISES TO BRING HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST
OUTSIDE 130W EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN WITH THIS TROUGH TIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE 6Z NAM12 AND 6Z GFS SPED UP THE ARRIVAL
SOME...HOWEVER IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE
AFTER ABOUT 5 PM. THE HRRR MODEL DOES SHOW SOME RETURNS SPIKING UP
OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAS THE BRUNT OF THE
REFLECTIVITIES STILL OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND 4PM.
SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH LINE APPROACHES THE COAST. WINDS WERE ALREADY A BIT
BREEZY OVER THE RIDGES AND GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH DOWN TO MEAN SEA
LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED. THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND PROBABLY PRODUCE A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF RAIN. ALSO THE MODELS NO LONGER INDICATE THAT THE
TROUGH WILL ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT. THE GFS STILL SHOWS WEAK
INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MARINE ZONE 475
TODAY...SO LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS
THERE.
THE MODELS WERE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
RAIN WILL END OR DECREASE TONIGHT. THE GFS, ECMWF AND NAM12 DO
SHOW LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN MENDO COUNTY AND IN EASTERN
TRINITY...SO MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES THERE TIL
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA ON MONDAY WHICH MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS BY
MON NIGHT.
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON TUE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO INCREASE ON
TUE...HOWEVER THE MODELS WERE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PRECIP. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS THE MODELS WERE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT AND KEEP CHANGING AROUND FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT. SO
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS FOR TUE.
A RAINY AND WINDY STORM SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK TO IMPACT
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THE 0Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT WED INTO THURSDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
INDICATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. ON FRIDAY...THE GFS
HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA WITH GOOD INSTABILITY
PRESENT. HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF NEAR 7K FEET ON
WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY FALL TO BETWEEN 4KFT FEET BY FRIDAY IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT. THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE COOLER AIR AND NW
FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH ON SAT...SO LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL DOWN FRI INTO SAT AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 10 AM TO 2 PM TODAY
FOR MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY DUE TO
A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AS
THE TIDE IS FORECAST TO BE 7.76 FT WITH AN ANOMALY AROUND 1 FT.
THE CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY IS 8.8 FT. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT
11:30 AM TODAY WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING 8.8 FT. WE ANTICIPATE
THE FLOODING THREAT TO DIMINISH NEXT WEEK BUT A HIGH TIDAL ANOMALY
ON MONDAY COULD RESULT IN MORE COASTAL FLOODING.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL
SCOUR OUT TODAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR DURING HEAVY
RAIN BANDS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR LOWER CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE DAY AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. BFG
&&
.MARINE...A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL SWEEP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
WEEK WITH STRONG TO GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS PRECEDING. STEEP
SOUTHERLY WAVES WILL ACCOMPANY THESE INCREASING WINDS. THE FIRST
FRONT WILL CAUSE BUILDING CONDITIONS TODAY INTO EARLY MONDAY THEN
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN DETERIORATE
MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER STRONG FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN, SO HAVE FOLLOW MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST.
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH A
CORE OF WINDS POINTING AT THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS CAUSING LARGE WAVES WHICH ARE PROPAGATING TOWARD THE COAST. WAVES
MODELS ARE SHOWING FORERUNNERS ARRIVING ON TUESDAY THEN BUILDING
QUICKLY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WESTERLY SWELL COULD REACH AS HIGH AS
18 FT AT 14 SECONDS ON WEDNESDAY. COMBINE THIS WITH GALES OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND THE ASSOCIATED STEEP WAVES AND COMBINED SEAS MAY REACH AS
HIGH AS 20 TO 24 FEET. LATE WEEK, MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. OVERALL IT WILL BE A ROUGH
WEEK FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. BFG
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ001.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ410.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM PST MONDAY
FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST MONDAY
FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ470-475.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ470.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR PZZ475.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
951 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AS A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM APPROACHES OUR AREA....A
LONG DURATION PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WILL IMPACT THE REGION BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL STORM SITS AND SPINS CLOSE TO OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EST...DELAYED ONSET OF STEADY PRECIPITATION BY A FEW
HOURS...AS HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF LIKELY
LATCHING ON TO SIGNIFICANT DRY WEDGE ALOFT EVIDENT ON KALB
SOUNDING BETWEEN 5-20 KFT. SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE
THE COLUMN AND ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. SO LOWERED
POPS CONSIDERABLY THROUGH 4 AM...WITH POPS INCREASING TO
CHANCE/LIKELY VALUES SOUTH OF ALBANY BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM. WILL
STILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS TO
BEGIN AT 1 AM DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEFORE THE MAIN EVENT BEGINS.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME FOR NOW AS WE EXAMINE THE
LATEST DATA...ALTHOUGH THE AREA CURRENTLY UNDER A WINTER STORM
WATCH WILL BE EITHER UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY BEFORE
DAWN.
FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WINTER STORM WARNING AND WATCHES WILL
START AT 400 AM...AND WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT AND BE IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND 20S...THEN SLOWLY RISE 3 TO 4 DEGREES BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERY COMPLEX WINTER STORM WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE REGION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE UPGRADED THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TO WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 14
INCHES...ALONG WITH SOME MIXED PCPN POSSIBLE. THE LOWEST TERRAIN
AREAS IN THESE REGIONS MAY NOT EXCEED 7 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO THE
MIXING OF PCPN WITH SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN...BUT ON
AVERAGE MOST AREAS WILL GET HEAVY SNOW.
DUE TO THE EXTREMELY TIGHT GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THE MINOR TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THAT OCCUR BETWEEN
EACH MODEL...AND EVEN BETWEEN DIFFERENT RUNS OF THE SAME MODEL...
HAVE DECIDED THAT THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO MAKE A
DECISION BETWEEN A WARNING OR AN ADVISORY FOR A LARGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THAT INCLUDES THE SARATOGA REGION...CAPITAL DISTRICT...
THE UPPER PART OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY. THIS WAS COORDINATED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES TO THE EAST WHO ALSO KEPT ADJOINING PARTS OF
THEIR FORECAST AREAS IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH.
FOR NOW HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 3 TO 10 INCHES IN THE WATCH
AREA...WITH MOST AREAS GENERALLY FORECAST TO GET 7 INCHES OR LESS...
EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.
MOST OF THE PCPN WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY...WITH A LARGE DRY SLOT
SURGING NORTHWARD AND CUTTING OFF THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PCPN
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY PARKING ITSELF OVER EASTERN NY...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS WELL. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MIXED PCPN WEDNESDAY...BUT ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 30 TO 40. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 30S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT 20 TO 30.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL
BE CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE LOST ITS BAROCLINICITY BY THEN RESULTING IN MAINLY SCATTERED TO
LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE CORE MOVING
INTO NEW ENGLAND. OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK IN FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AS
WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE VALLEYS FOR FRIDAY. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR A PASSING SNOW
SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW PERSISTING.
IT LOOKS LIKE DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY PREVAIL FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY THE CUT-OFF LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. THE ECMWF IS RATHER SLOW
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE CUT-OFF LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW UNTIL
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN BY LATE
SATURDAY. AGAIN...THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON CLOUD COVER BUT WE
ARE EXPECTING PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DESPITE RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS...SURFACE TEMPS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO EXPECTED SHALLOW MIXING
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TRANQUIL WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION
TYPES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOLID STRATUS CLOUD DECK WITH CIGS IN MVFR RANGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING DUE TO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST E-SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL NOT AFFECT THE VISIBILITY SO WILL JUST MENTION VCSH.
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL STORM WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE AT KPOU...TO
MID MORNING AT KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO
IFR/LIFR SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP COMMENCES.
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
START AT KPOU...CHANGING TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AT KALB/KPSF/KGFL AROUND 12Z-14Z...THEN QUICKLY CHANGE TO
A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUAL RAIN BY NOON
AT KALB/KPSF. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL THE FALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KGFL.
THE PRECIP TYPE FORECASTS AND TIMING ARE LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME...AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
UNCERTAIN. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY SCOUR OUT QUICKER THAN
ANTICIPATED OR LINGER LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD
IMPACT WHEN PRECIP TYPE TRANSITIONS OCCUR.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE N-NE AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS WITH GUST NEAR OR EXCEEDING 20 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN...SLEET.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH FOR DUTCHESS AND EASTERN ULSTER COUNTIES ALONG WITH
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF ARE IN THE FORECAST
WITH MAINLY RAIN.
A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOR NORTHWESTERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL PRIMARY AS SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX.
MEANWHILE...ACROSS SOUTHERN AND VALLEY AREAS...PRECIP WILL BEGIN
AS A PERIOD OF SNOW AND TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN RAIN.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT VALUES WILL BE 0.75 OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS TO ABOUT 2 INCHES OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH MUCH
OF THIS FALLING AS RAINFALL OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...THERE WILL BE
A LOT OF RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING WHICH PRECIP WILL BE HEAVIEST. THIS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WHERE THE GROUND IS FROZEN. RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS
ARE LIKELY...AND MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER AND IT/S TRIBUTARIES IN NW CT. AS A RESULT...A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER...SUCH AS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TACONICS...BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME. PART OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO QUESTIONS
REMAINING OF HOW LONG PRECIP WILL BE WINTRY VS PLAIN RAINFALL. WHEN
THE EXACT DURATION OF PRECIP TYPES BECOME MORE CLEAR...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR CTZ001-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-048-051-058-063-082.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ041-049-050-052>054-059>061-083-084.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR NYZ064>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ064>066.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
359 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY BUT MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TODAY...LINGERING INTO
MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY AND LINGER THERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANY EARLY MORNING PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS AND MOVING QUICKLY OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AGAIN PRECIP COULD END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW AND/OR SLEET. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK TO HAVE A GOOD
TIMING FOR THE BACK EDGE...SO LEANED HEAVILY UPON THAT TIMING.
LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME SLICK SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF I-95 IN MA AND RI AS TEMPERATURES FALL AT OR BELOW
FREEZING AND COMBINE WITH ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE ROADS.
GOOD POST FRONTAL MIXING MAY DRY THINGS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS BUT WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WITH
NNE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH...EXCEPT UP TO 50 MPH
ACROSS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. CLEARING WILL BE BRIEF...AS NNE FLOW
YIELDS LOTS OF OCEAN-EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN
MA. AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH OF A TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S...ONLY
GETTING MAX DIFFERENTIALS ABOUT -5C TO -7C. THAT IS TYPICALLY NOT
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT OCEAN-INDUCED CAPE. THERE IS ALSO
THE PROBLEM OF THE SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND
950 MB WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR ABOVE IT. THAT LEAVES ONLY A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LEFT A CHANCE OF
SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT IS THE LOWEST
CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THIS FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA TO GENERATE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. EXPECTING COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND....WITH GUSTY WINDS LINGERING ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. WINDS DIMINISH SOME MONDAY.
SREF AND HIGH RESOLUTION WRF CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THAN JUST ABOUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THIS COULD BE A
FUNCTION OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE WRF MEMBERS. STILL SEEING
THE SAME ISSUES WITH OCEAN-EFFECT SHOWERS...THAT BEING THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DEEP DRY AIR. MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND PORTIONS OF RI FOR NOW...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL.
AFTER A VERY COLD START MONDAY MORNING...WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED MOSTLY RAINY WEATHER TO THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
* DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THE MODELS...WHILE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A DEEP...SOMETIMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH PULLING A COASTAL LOW IN TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW THEN ROTATES AROUND THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. THE 06/00Z GFS IS FINALLY IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE ECMWF...THOUGH IT IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. FINALLY...THE GEFS
MEMBERS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BUT ALL WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT TRACKS AND SPEEDS. THEREFORE GIVEN
ITS CONSISTENCY...FEEL THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS THE WAY TO GO.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS STATED ABOVE...WE ARE SEEING BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW PROGRESSIVE THE STORM WILL BE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG /3 TO 4 STD/ EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING.
WHILE THE MAIN CONCERN IS TUESDAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS
STORM TO LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP ALL TOGETHER FOR NOW.
SNOW...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE MARITIMES /NOT AN IDEAL
LOCATION FOR COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/...
THERMAL PROFILES ARE ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THEY
ARE RIGHT AT ZERO DEGREES SO A SMALL SHIFT IN EITHER DIRECTION IS
GOING TO BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SNOW AND RAIN. STRONG FORCING
MEANS EITHER SNOW OR RAIN COULD BE QUITE HEAVY WITH 2 INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE
SITUATION.
HEAVY RAIN...TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE SUCH THAT WE ARE EXPECTING
MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE LOW MOVING AS SLOWLY AS IT IS
ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WE ARE LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES. WHILE THIS
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR ANY RIVER FLOODING...THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SOME URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. BECAUSE OF THE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATION LOW LEVEL JET...MUCH OF
THIS RAIN COULD FALL OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
WIND...WITH THIS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECTING
EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE GUSTING TO AT LEAST 45 MPH...IF NOT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. THERE IS ALSO A
LOW PROBABILITY OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA /60 MPH GUSTS OR HIGHER/.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AS WELL. SEE TIDES/COASTAL
FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AT THIS POINT BOTH MODELS HAVE A RETURN TO
DRIER WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...VFR EXCEPT LINGERING IFR/MVFR OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
EARLY. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 KT OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
IFR/MVFR RETURN TO EASTERN MA IN THE AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN MA WATERS COME ONSHORE.
TONIGHT...VFR EXCEPT IFR/MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG WITH NE WINDS G35 KT...HIGHEST CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS SPREAD INLAND FROM
THE COAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN SOME IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FOR A TIME IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FOR A TIME IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
MAINLY RAIN...WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA/NORTH CENTRAL MA. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK FOR A FEW GUSTS UP TO 50
KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERIODS OF
MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BRIEF
TIMES OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
*** NORTHEAST GALES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ***
TODAY...RAIN OVER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WATERS AT SUNRISE
QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE. GUSTY NNE WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE...STRONGEST WINDS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WATERS.
ROUGH SEAS EASTERN MA WATERS. NNE WINDS WILL LIKELY GENERATE OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY.
TONIGHT...NNE GALES THRU THE EVENING AND THEN EASING SLOWLY
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDUCE
VSBY. ROUGH SEAS EASTERN MA WATERS.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KNOTS. STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
***HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT EXPECTED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS AND AT
LEAST 40 TO 45 KNOT WIND GUSTS ON TUESDAY***
MONDAY NIGHT ...HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS. STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 45 KNOTS AND GALE WARNINGS ARE A SLAM DUNK. THERE IS A LEAST A
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO BETWEEN
15 TO 20 FEET ACROSS THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS. HAVE ISSUED A
COMBINATION OF GALE AND STORM WATCHES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SO WIND DIRECTION AND SEAS ARE UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...AT LEAST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SURGE TO BE GENERATED AS
WINDS TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE MINOR
SPLASHOVER AT THE MORE VULNERABLE COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE TONIGHT IS LOWER...SO NOT AS MUCH OF A CONCERN.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
MA COAST DURING THE MIDDAY TUE HIGH TIDE. TIMING OF STRONGEST
WINDS/WAVE HEIGHTS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. GFS MIGHT BE A BIT
FAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLES. THE GFS WOULD HAVE
WINDS/SEAS RAMPED UP BY TUE AFTERNOON...WHILE ECMWF SHOWS IT
OCCURRING 3 TO 6 HOURS LATER. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...WE WOULD BE
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT ON
EASTERN MA COAST. LEANING A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER
ECMWF...WHICH WOULD STILL BRING THE RISK FOR A MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
EVENT WITH A 2+ FOOT SURGE POSSIBLE. EITHER WAY...DEFINITELY THIS
RISK FOR AT LEAST SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING/BEACH EROSION SO
SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BELK/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
218 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE
PIKE IN MASSACHUSETTS. DRY BUT MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY WEATHER
FOLLOWS SUNDAY....AND LINGERS INTO MONDAY. A STRONG COASTAL STORM
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE MIXED WITH TIMES OF DRY
WEATHER. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANY EARLY MORNING PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS AND MOVING QUICKLY OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AGAIN PRECIP COULD END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW AND/OR SLEET. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK TO HAVE A GOOD
TIMING FOR THE BACK EDGE...SO LEANED HEAVILY UPON THAT TIMING.
LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME SLICK SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF I-95 IN MA AND RI AS TEMPERATURES FALL AT OR BELOW
FREEZING AND COMBINE WITH ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE ROADS.
GOOD POST FRONTAL MIXING MAY DRY THINGS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS BUT WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WITH
NNE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH...EXCEPT UP TO 50 MPH
ACROSS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. CLEARING WILL BE BRIEF...AS NNE FLOW
YIELDS LOTS OF OCEAN-EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN
MA. AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH OF A TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S...ONLY
GETTING MAX DIFFERENTIALS ABOUT -5C TO -7C. THAT IS TYPICALLY NOT
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT OCEAN-INDUCED CAPE. THERE IS ALSO
THE PROBLEM OF THE SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND
950 MB WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR ABOVE IT. THAT LEAVES ONLY A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LEFT A CHANCE OF
SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT IS THE LOWEST
CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THIS FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA TO GENERATE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. EXPECTING COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND....WITH GUSTY WINDS LINGERING ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. WINDS DIMINISH SOME MONDAY.
SREF AND HIGH RESOLUTION WRF CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THAN JUST ABOUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THIS COULD BE A
FUNCTION OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE WRF MEMBERS. STILL SEEING
THE SAME ISSUES WITH OCEAN-EFFECT SHOWERS...THAT BEING THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DEEP DRY AIR. MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND PORTIONS OF RI FOR NOW...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL.
AFTER A VERY COLD START MONDAY MORNING...WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STRONG NOREASTER LIKELY TUE W/HEAVY RAIN + STRONG COASTAL WINDS
* ACCUM SNOW POSS TUE INTERIOR NORTHERN MA BEFORE CHANGE TO RAIN
* UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LINGER WED INTO THU - BUT NOT THE ENTIRE TIME
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY BY NEXT FRI AND SAT
DETAILS...
MONDAY NIGHT...
THE COLD ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA COAST MON NIGHT. SHALLOW INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW AMOUNTS PROBABLY UNDER 1 INCH...BUT CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME SLICK SPOTS ALONG THE COAST. PTYPE MAY GRADUALLY
CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
AS MILDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN OFF THE OCEAN.
TUESDAY...
THE MAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. VERY
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST...BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED. THIS WILL ALLOW A DISTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO GET PULLED BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND APPROACH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES A
STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE/VERY STRONG FORCING. GFS APPEARS IT MAY BE BIT FAST
COMPARED TO SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES/ECMWF MODEL...SO THINK BRUNT OF
STORM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE INTO TUE EVENING.
1) ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MA:
THE PROBLEM FOR THIS EVENT IS THAT THERE IS AN INITIAL WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS ALLOW SOME WARMING ALOFT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN EVENT.
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...NOT AN IDEAL POSITIONING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO KEEP
COLD AIR IN PLACE.
THEREFORE...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON
TUE. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE CAREFUL
ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL MA. MID LEVEL CENTERS ARE CLOSING OFF
AT THIS TIME. THERMAL PROFILES ARE CLOSE TO ISOTHERMAL AND VERY
STRONG FORCING WILL MAKE IT A CLOSE CALL BETWEEN A HEAVY THUMP OF
SNOW PERHAPS JUST A COLD RAIN. GIVEN THE EVENT IS STILL 72 HOURS
OUT IN THE MODEL WORLD...A SLIGHT CHANGE IN POSITIONING CAN MAKE ALL
THE DIFFERENCE. CERTAINLY SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
BECAUSE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MAINLY RAIN OR 2 INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES. SO AS YOU CAN SEE THE STAKES ARE QUITE HIGH FOR A
SMALL PORTION OF OUR REGION.
2) HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN FLOODING:
VERY STRONG FORCING WITH STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO BE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...RESULTING IN VERY STRONG FORCING. MOST MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH 1.50 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
WHILE THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE RIVER FLOODING...SOME URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IS LIKELY. MUCH OF THIS HEAVY RAIN MAY
FALL OVER A VERY SHORT TIME...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE RISK FOR SOME
STREET FLOODING.
3) STRONG WINDS:
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET ON TUESDAY ALONG THE EASTERN
MA COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS. LOW PROBABILITY FOR HIGH WIND WATCH/WARNING
CRITERIA BEING MET AS WELL...BUT EITHER WAY SOME WIND HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH ARE A GOOD
BET ALONG THE COAST.
4) COASTAL FLOODING:
THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
MA COAST DURING THE MIDDAY TUE HIGH TIDE. TIMING OF STRONGEST
WINDS/WAVE HEIGHTS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. GFS MIGHT BE A BIT
FAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLES. THE GFS WOULD HAVE
WINDS/SEAS RAMPED UP BY TUE AFTERNOON...WHILE ECMWF SHOWS IT
OCCURRING 3 TO 6 HOURS LATER. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...WE WOULD BE
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT ON
EASTERN MA COAST. LEANING A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER
ECMWF...WHICH WOULD STILL BRING THE RISK FOR A MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
EVENT WITH A 2+ FOOT SURGE POSSIBLE. EITHER WAY...DEFINITELY THIS
RISK FOR AT LEAST SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING/BEACH EROSION SO
SOMETHING TO WATCH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THIS TIME. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND NEW ENGLAND...CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE GFS/GGEM SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
GENERALLY TO OUR NORTH OVER THIS TIME. IF THESE SOLUTIONS
VERIFY...MUCH OF WED AND THU WOULD BE DRY OTHER THAN A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS THE 500 MB LOW TO OUR
SOUTH FOR A TIME LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. IF THIS VERIFIES COULD
PUT US IN THE TROWAL AND A PERIOD OF EVEN ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AGAIN...VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE BUT SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...VFR EXCEPT LINGERING IFR/MVFR OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
EARLY. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 KT OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
IFR/MVFR RETURN TO EASTERN MA IN THE AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN MA WATERS COME ONSHORE.
TONIGHT...VFR EXCEPT IFR/MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG WITH NE WINDS G35 KT...HIGHEST CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS SPREAD INLAND FROM
THE COAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN SOME IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FOR A TIME IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
MAINLY RAIN...WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA/NORTH CENTRAL MA. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK FOR A FEW GUSTS UP TO 50
KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERIODS OF
MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BRIEF
TIMES OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
*** NORTHEAST GALES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ***
TODAY...RAIN OVER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WATERS AT SUNRISE
QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE. GUSTY NNE WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE...STRONGEST WINDS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WATERS.
ROUGH SEAS EASTERN MA WATERS. NNE WINDS WILL LIKELY GENERATE OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY.
TONIGHT...NNE GALES THRU THE EVENING AND THEN EASING SLOWLY
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDUCE
VSBY. ROUGH SEAS EASTERN MA WATERS.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KNOTS. STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
***HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT EXPECTED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS AND AT
LEAST 45 KNOT WIND GUSTS ON TUESDAY***
TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 45 KNOTS AND GALE WARNINGS ARE A SLAM DUNK. THERE IS A LEAST
A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 FEET ACROSS THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS. WILL
ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CONCERNS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SO WIND DIRECTION AND SEAS ARE UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...AT LEAST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
838 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SOME ADJUSTMENTS T
POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR TONIGHT.
ALSO, THE SREF IS SHOWING THE BEST CHANCES OF FOG TO BE FURTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. IT IS ALSO SHOWING THAT IT IS
POSSIBLE THE BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE METRO AREAS MAY ALSO HAVE SOME
CHANCE OF SEEING FOG IN THE MORNING. BUT, HAVE KEPT IT OUT OF
THOSE AREAS FOR NOW, WITH THE INTERIOR BEING THE MAIN AREA
IMPACTED BY PATCHY FOG. HOWEVER, THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS
ALSO SHOWING THE METRO AREAS BEING IMPACTED WITH FOG, INCLUDING
THE PALM BEACH AREA. SO, THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN WITH THE
NEXT UPDATE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WITH
LIGHT NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN GFS/NAM AND HRRR/RAP ON REGARD TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. WITH THE LOW CONFIDENCE INCLUDED VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW
AND SCT LOW CLOUDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A
SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. IN ADDITION
THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.
AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS THERE IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT WITH A RE-ENFORCING
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR AND LINGERING MOISTURE COULD RESULT
IN FOG ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOST RECENT
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF FOG EARLY TUESDAY AND IS
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.
AS NOTED EARLIER...THE COMBINATION OF A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WELL ESTABLISHED NORTHEAST FETCH ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINAS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE LONG PERIOD
NORHTHEASTERLY SWELL THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY TODAY. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO ENTER THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
WITH SURF HEIGHTS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 10 FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
PREVAILING.
MARINE...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LONG PERIOD NORHTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
TODAY THEN CONTINUE TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. WINDS
ACROSS THE ALTANTIC WATERS COULD REACH THE 20-22 KNOT RANGE LATER
ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS TO
ADVISORY LEVELS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT ALL ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 60 72 50 65 / 10 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 62 73 53 67 / 10 10 0 0
MIAMI 62 73 52 67 / 10 10 0 0
NAPLES 59 70 50 65 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1247 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY EAST MIDLANDS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MID WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST.
SATELLITE INDICATES AREA OF CLOUDINESS SHIFTING SOUTH...AND APPEARS
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE ALSO SUGGESTS UPPER CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
ADDITIONAL LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO
OUR FA. MODEL CONSENSUS HOLDS OF ON ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
FOR OUR FA THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES
MONDAY WILL RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CAROLINAS. SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS. WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE COLD AIR DAMMING IN THE CAROLINAS...ALTHOUGH
WEAK DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SHALLOW
MOISTURE. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS PROBABLY OVERCAST BY LATE
MORNING WITH WEAK SOUTHEAST 850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF ATLANTIC. AS
COASTAL LOW MOVES A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE NORTH
AND EAST AND ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SO
RAISED POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST MIDLANDS/PEE DEE THROUGH
EVENING...BUT QPF LIKELY QUITE LOW. TEMPERATURES...PREFER SREF MEAN
WHICH IS BELOW MOS AVERAGE/NEAR CURRENT FORECAST AND REASONABLE
BASED ON LOCAL WEDGE SCHEME. LINGERING CLOUDINESS MONDAY NIGHT MAY
RESULT IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE MOS MEAN. WEDGE ERODING
EARLY TUESDAY...SOME MORNING CLOUDS BUT EXPECT CLEARING THROUGH
DAY WITH DOWNSLOPE...CLOUDINESS LIKELY TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ON TRACK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AND BECOMING STACKED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH THE
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN COLD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE
FORECAST BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 50S EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH
SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDINESS...WITH MVFR CIGS...PUSHING SOUTH. TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS IN THE NEAR TERM AT OGB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. BREEZY NE WINDS INDICATING TREND TOWARDS
SLIGHTLY DECREASING SPEEDS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS INDICATING PREMISE FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS
TO REENTER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY
ON CEILING HEIGHTS...CHOSE TO LEAN TOWARDS RAP MODEL PROJECTION OF
MVFR CIGS...WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE SITUATION.
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
AVIATION EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
844 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
843 PM CST
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MUCH OF THE FOG AS VISIBILITY HAS
IMPROVED MARKEDLY FROM EARLIER. ALSO ADJUSTED POP/WEATHER FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW COMBO CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW PRIOR TO ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS EVENING...WITH OCCLUDED COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AS OF 02Z/8 PM CST.
INTRUSION OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR HAS HELPED ERODE MUCH OF
THE FOG AND LOWEST CLOUD BASES BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS HAVE REMOVED
FOG FROM FORECAST EXCEPT FOR NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE LAKE.
ALOFT...ROBUST MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION WAS NEARLY OVERHEAD
PER CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z RAOB ANALYSIS...AND IS NI
THE PROCESS OF FORMING A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ALONG ITS NORTHERN/EASTERN FLANKS...GENERALLY
THE NORTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE WFO LOT CWA. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN
AND ILX SHOW MOISTURE GENERALLY BELOW 800-700 MB AND WITH CLOUD
BEARING LAYER MIN TEMPS LESS THAN -10 C...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WITH LACK OF ICE NUCLEATION. DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER NORTH (GRB SOUNDING) WAS ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER
PRECIPITATION ELEMENTS CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST WI WAS RESULTING IN WET SNOW. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE
WITH THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND A SLOW COOLING OF THE COLUMN IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO MIX/CHANGE TO A
LITTLE WET SNOW WHERE IT FALLS A LITTLE STEADIER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST IL THROUGH A LITTLE PAST MIDNIGHT AND INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AND
LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIP SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OTHER THAN A FEW SLUSHY TENTHS PERHAPS IN ISOLATED AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
317 PM CST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW ALL ARE LIKELY
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS TWO UPPER CIRCULATIONS THAT WILL
CROSS THE AREA...AND MODEL VORTICITY FIELDS ALOFT AND RH FIELDS AT
LOWER LEVELS ALL SUPPORT THE IDEA OF PATCHY AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON MOST AREAS ARE IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S...AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH AS COLDER AIR
APPROACHES...SO LITTLE IF ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE.
BY MORNING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LONGWAVE IS WELL TO OUR EAST...AND
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA AS WELL. ONLY AT LOW
LEVELS DO RH FIELDS SUGGEST CONTINUED SATURATION...SO WILL TREND
POPS DOWNWARD TO BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS BY DAYBREAK EXCEPT
DOWNWIND FROM THE LAKE IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AT THE END OF A
NORTHWEST FETCH. EVEN THAT AREA APPEARS TO DRY OUT BY LATE
TOMORROW AS WINDS CONTINUE VEERING NORTHEASTERLY AND LOW LEVELS
DRY CONSIDERABLY.
CLOUDINESS PERSISTS SOUTH OF THE LAKE LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...BUT AREAS WEST CLEAR OUT A BIT. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR A FEW
DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS BETWEEN MORE
CLEAR AND MORE OVERCAST AREAS. WEDNESDAY CONTINUES COOL...BUT NOT
UNSEASONABLY SO...WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.
LENNING
&&
.LONG TERM...
317 PM CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY THE WEEKEND DO NOT LOOK
TOO BAD AT ALL FOR MID DECEMBER. COMPARED TO LAST MONTH...THE
STRETCH OF DAYS STARTING ON FRIDAY THE 12TH LOOKS TO BE FROM 10 TO
20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SAME PERIOD FROM LAST MONTH. SO THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER APPEAR TO BE SWAPPED THIS
YEAR.
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE THOUGH NOT PERFECT AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH NOW OVERHEAD WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND ALLOW
A BROAD RIDGE FROM THE SFC TO UPPER LEVELS TAKE ITS PLACE. THIS
RIDGING WITH ITS DRY AND MILD WEATHER APPEARS TO PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEKEND WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST.
BY EARLY SUNDAY MODELS START TO SUGGEST A RETURN OF BETTER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WEST OF
THE RIDGE. CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THIS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE LOCAL AREA IS LOW...SO HAVE ELECTED TO INCLUDE INCREASED
POPS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT ALL IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* IFR CIG/VIS CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WITH ANY LIFR EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE BY 02-03Z. VSBYS BELOW 5 SM AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING
IN DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY SOME WET LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES
LATE. PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING VFR VSBYS
AND IMPROVEMENT TO SOLID MVFR CIGS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
* MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
* WEST WINDS SHIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS 15-20
KT. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND NORTH-NORTHWEST
TUESDAY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING
STEADILY EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL. FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH
KRFD IN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH CHICAGO
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY AND MID-EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AND MORE NORTHERLY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
EXPERIENCED LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS/VIS IMPROVING QUICKLY TO MORE SOLID HIGHER END IFR
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS WINDS SHIFT WEST-NORTHWEST AND BEGIN TO PULL
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WAS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS AT LEAST AT TIMES THROUGH PERHAPS 2-3 AM. THIS PRECIP
WHICH IS LARGELY IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN...MAY AT TIMES
CHANGE TO INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW WHERE POCKETS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ALLOW BETTER ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LIGHT PRECIP MAY
AT TIMES BRING CIGS/VIS BACK INTO LOWER-END IFR. THE DEVELOPING
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ENDING THE LIGHT PRECIP THREAT BY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS A BIT ON CEILING HEIGHTS TUESDAY...BUT
EXPECT BASES TO LIFT TO AT LEAST LOW-END MVFR HEIGHTS WITH THE END
OF PRECIP BY MORNING. EXTENSIVE AREA OF 1000-2000 FT CIGS EXISTS
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST HOWEVER...SO SUSPECT MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WINDS SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR AND
RESULTING MIXING/DEEPENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT EVENTUALLY DECREASING A BIT LATE
IN THE DAY.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS. HIGH IN ANY LINGERING LIFR IMPROVING
SHORTLY.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN IMPROVING CIG TRENDS TONIGHT...MEDIUM-LOW IN
CIG/VIS DETAILS IN ANY LIGHT PRECIP.
* MEDIUM IN MVFR CIGS THROUGH TUESDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR. NORTH WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS.
SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN. SOUTH WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
227 PM CST
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOWS
COLD FRONT AND THEN THEY TURN NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
MINNESOTA. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WITH 30 KT
NORTH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE TOMORROW. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH APPROACHES BUT LARGE WAVES WILL LINGER IN THE NSH ZONES.
HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THE HAZARDOUS WAVES WILL
LINGER...BUT HAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AS THE HIGH MOVES DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...6 AM TUESDAY TO 9
PM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...9 AM TUESDAY TO 3
PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
832 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
Cold front has swept east of the state early this evening along
with most of the light rain and drizzle. Low level flow has now
shifted into the northwest and as a result, the cloud band that
was shifting out of far west central Illinois this evening has
been replaced by another band of clouds that was tracking
southeast out of Iowa this afternoon and will be with us well
into the morning hours of Tuesday. Not much in the way of precip
over Iowa early this evening with the only snow and rain reports
well to our north over far southern Wisconsin and northern IL.
Most of the short term models suggest that light precip will remain
to our north tonight. Current forecast has conditions well in hand
for this evening and the overnight hours. Other than some minor
wording adjustments in the overnight portion of the forecast, no
other changes needed to the current ZFP. Will have the update out
by 900 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
Cold front is pushing across central Illinois early this afternoon,
located just west of Peoria and Springfield as of 2 pm. Extensive
low cloud deck has been prevailing over the forecast area, with some
localized dense fog along and north of the I-74 corridor. Surface
observations showing visibilities and ceilings lifting behind the
front, and the back edge of the cloudiness covered about the eastern
third of Missouri. Well defined upper circulation evident on water
vapor imagery over northeast Iowa, and this is producing some light
rain and snow upstream from us.
Main question for this part of the forecast is how much clearing
will manage to take place. Lower clouds extend all the way back into
southern North Dakota. RAP model guidance and current trajectories
would suggest some clearing may take place over the far southwest
parts of the forecast area for a short period, but a secondary surge
of clouds is expected as the broad upper trough surrounding the
aforementioned circulation swings through the Midwest this evening.
Have kept the sky forecast on the pessimistic side and kept cloudy
skies in the grids for tonight. Much of the associated precipitation
should be just to our north, but will include some slight chance
PoP`s for the northeast CWA for this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
As the low pressure area weakens and gets absorbed into an east
coast system, a high pressure ridges will build into the area. This
ridge will dominate the weather over the area through Wednesday and
beyond. Some concern with lower level moisture remaining trapped
under the ridge Tue through Wed, so have increased cloud cover to go
mostly cloudy through Wed. As the center of the high pressure drops
south into the southern Miss river valley, the ridge will remain
over the area with dry weather through Thursday, the rest of the
week and into the weekend. The area will also remain dominated by
mid level cyclonic flow through the end of the week. Then mid level
ridging, that was building in the plains, will begin to dominate the
region for the weekend. Late in the weekend, the ridging will begin
to push east and this will allow a frontal system to move into the
area and bring rain to the region for Sun night and Monday.
With high pressure dropping into the area and cyclonic flow, temps
will remain cool for the next couple of days. But then as the high
pressure settles south and mid level ridging builds, temps will
begin to warm again. By the weekend, temps will warm to above
normal, with 50s expected Sat and Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 5050 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
IFR cigs associated with the cold front will spread across most of
the forecast area thru 02z associated with drizzle or light rain.
Once that moves through, we expect cigs to become MVFR over most
of the area with even a few breaks possible during the overnight
hours. However, at this time, any breaks in the cloud cover will
be short lived as the deep cyclonic flow aloft will bring about
more low level moisture and cloud cover from the north for Tuesday.
Outside the band of IFR cigs and rain, look for cigs to range from
1200-2500 feet after 03z and last into a good portion of Tuesday.
Surface winds will become northwest across the entire area tonight
with speeds averaging from 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts up to
20 kts at times this evening. Winds on Tuesday will be from the
northwest to north winds are expected on Tuesday at 8 to 13 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
601 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...
317 PM CST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW ALL ARE LIKELY
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS TWO UPPER CIRCULATIONS THAT WILL
CROSS THE AREA...AND MODEL VORTICITY FIELDS ALOFT AND RH FIELDS AT
LOWER LEVELS ALL SUPPORT THE IDEA OF PATCHY AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON MOST AREAS ARE IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S...AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH AS COLDER AIR
APPROACHES...SO LITTLE IF ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE.
BY MORNING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LONGWAVE IS WELL TO OUR EAST...AND
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA AS WELL. ONLY AT LOW
LEVELS DO RH FIELDS SUGGEST CONTINUED SATURATION...SO WILL TREND
POPS DOWNWARD TO BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS BY DAYBREAK EXCEPT
DOWNWIND FROM THE LAKE IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AT THE END OF A
NORTHWEST FETCH. EVEN THAT AREA APPEARS TO DRY OUT BY LATE
TOMORROW AS WINDS CONTINUE VEERING NORTHEASTERLY AND LOW LEVELS
DRY CONSIDERABLY.
CLOUDINESS PERSISTS SOUTH OF THE LAKE LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...BUT AREAS WEST CLEAR OUT A BIT. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR A FEW
DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS BETWEEN MORE
CLEAR AND MORE OVERCAST AREAS. WEDNESDAY CONTINUES COOL...BUT NOT
UNSEASONABLY SO...WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.
LENNING
&&
.LONG TERM...
317 PM CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY THE WEEKEND DO NOT LOOK
TOO BAD AT ALL FOR MID DECEMBER. COMPARED TO LAST MONTH...THE
STRETCH OF DAYS STARTING ON FRIDAY THE 12TH LOOKS TO BE FROM 10 TO
20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SAME PERIOD FROM LAST MONTH. SO THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER APPEAR TO BE SWAPPED THIS
YEAR.
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE THOUGH NOT PERFECT AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH NOW OVERHEAD WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND ALLOW
A BROAD RIDGE FROM THE SFC TO UPPER LEVELS TAKE ITS PLACE. THIS
RIDGING WITH ITS DRY AND MILD WEATHER APPEARS TO PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEKEND WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST.
BY EARLY SUNDAY MODELS START TO SUGGEST A RETURN OF BETTER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WEST OF
THE RIDGE. CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THIS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE LOCAL AREA IS LOW...SO HAVE ELECTED TO INCLUDE INCREASED
POPS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT ALL IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* IFR CIG/VIS CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WITH ANY LIFR EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE BY 02-03Z. VSBYS BELOW 5 SM AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING
IN DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY SOME WET LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES
LATE. PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING VFR VSBYS
AND IMPROVEMENT TO SOLID MVFR CIGS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
* MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
* WEST WINDS SHIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS 15-20
KT. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND NORTH-NORTHWEST
TUESDAY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING
STEADILY EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL. FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH
KRFD IN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH CHICAGO
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY AND MID-EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AND MORE NORTHERLY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
EXPERIENCED LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS/VIS IMPROVING QUICKLY TO MORE SOLID HIGHER END IFR
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS WINDS SHIFT WEST-NORTHWEST AND BEGIN TO PULL
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WAS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS AT LEAST AT TIMES THROUGH PERHAPS 2-3 AM. THIS PRECIP
WHICH IS LARGELY IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN...MAY AT TIMES
CHANGE TO INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW WHERE POCKETS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ALLOW BETTER ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LIGHT PRECIP MAY
AT TIMES BRING CIGS/VIS BACK INTO LOWER-END IFR. THE DEVELOPING
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ENDING THE LIGHT PRECIP THREAT BY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS A BIT ON CEILING HEIGHTS TUESDAY...BUT
EXPECT BASES TO LIFT TO AT LEAST LOW-END MVFR HEIGHTS WITH THE END
OF PRECIP BY MORNING. EXTENSIVE AREA OF 1000-2000 FT CIGS EXISTS
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST HOWEVER...SO SUSPECT MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WINDS SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR AND
RESULTING MIXING/DEEPENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT EVENTUALLY DECREASING A BIT LATE
IN THE DAY.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS. HIGH IN ANY LINGERING LIFR IMPROVING
SHORTLY.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN IMPROVING CIG TRENDS TONIGHT...MEDIUM-LOW IN
CIG/VIS DETAILS IN ANY LIGHT PRECIP.
* MEDIUM IN MVFR CIGS THROUGH TUESDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR. NORTH WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS.
SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN. SOUTH WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
227 PM CST
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOWS
COLD FRONT AND THEN THEY TURN NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
MINNESOTA. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WITH 30 KT
NORTH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE TOMORROW. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH APPROACHES BUT LARGE WAVES WILL LINGER IN THE NSH ZONES.
HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THE HAZARDOUS WAVES WILL
LINGER...BUT HAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AS THE HIGH MOVES DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...6 AM TUESDAY TO 9
PM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...9 AM TUESDAY TO 3
PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
512 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
Cold front is pushing across central Illinois early this afternoon,
located just west of Peoria and Springfield as of 2 pm. Extensive
low cloud deck has been prevailing over the forecast area, with some
localized dense fog along and north of the I-74 corridor. Surface
observations showing visibilities and ceilings lifting behind the
front, and the back edge of the cloudiness covered about the eastern
third of Missouri. Well defined upper circulation evident on water
vapor imagery over northeast Iowa, and this is producing some light
rain and snow upstream from us.
Main question for this part of the forecast is how much clearing
will manage to take place. Lower clouds extend all the way back into
southern North Dakota. RAP model guidance and current trajectories
would suggest some clearing may take place over the far southwest
parts of the forecast area for a short period, but a secondary surge
of clouds is expected as the broad upper trough surrounding the
aforementioned circulation swings through the Midwest this evening.
Have kept the sky forecast on the pessimistic side and kept cloudy
skies in the grids for tonight. Much of the associated precipitation
should be just to our north, but will include some slight chance
PoP`s for the northeast CWA for this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
As the low pressure area weakens and gets absorbed into an east
coast system, a high pressure ridges will build into the area. This
ridge will dominate the weather over the area through Wednesday and
beyond. Some concern with lower level moisture remaining trapped
under the ridge Tue through Wed, so have increased cloud cover to go
mostly cloudy through Wed. As the center of the high pressure drops
south into the southern Miss river valley, the ridge will remain
over the area with dry weather through Thursday, the rest of the
week and into the weekend. The area will also remain dominated by
mid level cyclonic flow through the end of the week. Then mid level
ridging, that was building in the plains, will begin to dominate the
region for the weekend. Late in the weekend, the ridging will begin
to push east and this will allow a frontal system to move into the
area and bring rain to the region for Sun night and Monday.
With high pressure dropping into the area and cyclonic flow, temps
will remain cool for the next couple of days. But then as the high
pressure settles south and mid level ridging builds, temps will
begin to warm again. By the weekend, temps will warm to above
normal, with 50s expected Sat and Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 5050 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
IFR cigs associated with the cold front will spread across most of
the forecast area thru 02z associated with drizzle or light rain.
Once that moves through, we expect cigs to become MVFR over most
of the area with even a few breaks possible during the overnight
hours. However, at this time, any breaks in the cloud cover will
be short lived as the deep cyclonic flow aloft will bring about
more low level moisture and cloud cover from the north for Tuesday.
Outside the band of IFR cigs and rain, look for cigs to range from
1200-2500 feet after 03z and last into a good portion of Tuesday.
Surface winds will become northwest across the entire area tonight
with speeds averaging from 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts up to
20 kts at times this evening. Winds on Tuesday will be from the
northwest to north winds are expected on Tuesday at 8 to 13 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
317 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
314 PM CST
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS THE QUICK HIT
OF A WINTERY MIX LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF BRIEF PERIOD OF A HEAVY BURST OF SNOW ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING DURING THE MORNING RUSH.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES OUR STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST DIGGING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK QUICKLY ALONG OR
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS ALREADY RAMPING UP ACROSS THE AREA
OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST-NORTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE COMBINATION OF GOOD LARGE SCALE FORCING (Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ALONG
WITH WHAT APPEARS MAY END UP BEING A RATHER STOUT BAND OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS...SHOULD PROVIDE A SHORT...BUT POTENTIALLY INTENSE
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA ALL
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
(UP AROUND 7 DEGREES C/KM IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER) DURING THE PERIOD
OF MAXIMUM FORCING FOR ASCENT. IN ADDITION...CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALSO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF NEGATIVE EPV...WITH
FOLDING THETA E SURFACES IN THE 500 TO 700 MB LAYER. THIS ALL
POINTS TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SHORT...BUT POTENTIALLY INTENSE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING RUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. THE CURRENT TIMING FOR THE CHICAGO
METRO AREA FOR THIS BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE
12 TO 15 UTC TIME FRAME...AND AN COUPLE HOURS EARLIER ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL...WITH MAX LAYER WET BULB TEMPERATURES FROM
ZERO TO +1 CELSIUS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN INTENSE
PRECIPITATION RATES WITHIN THIS AREA OF PRECIP...I FEEL THAT
SNOW...WITH SLEET IS STILL LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATES 80 AND 88...WHERE THE
STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING...AND HENCE MOST INTENSE DYNAMIC COLUMN
COOLING WILL BE MOST LIKELY. HOWEVER...A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIPITATION INITIALLY
FIGHTS WITH A WARM BUT DRY LAYER AROUND 850 MB...BUT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO A RATHER QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I88. WE
WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS...AS IT APPEARS IT WILL BE A
QUICK BURST OF SNOW DURING THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH.
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SOME SNOW AND SLEET IS STILL
POSSIBLE...BUT RAIN...AND EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED INTO MONDAY MORNING...DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SO SOME MINOR ICING IS
POSSIBLE...BUT I DONT SEE THIS AS MUCH OF FREEZING RAIN EVENT.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE QUICK TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...BY MIDDAY TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
IN A HURRY LATER MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS IT APPEARS ANY
LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE...AND GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 30S
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FREEZING
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
258 PM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING ALONG WITH REINFORCED LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION AS A SECONDARY MORE CONTINENTAL COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. FORECAST LIFT IS DISJOINTED SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT DID ADD A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES MONDAY EVENING. VERTICAL SATURATION PROFILES
REMAIN IFFY FOR ICE PRESENCE SO FELT COMFORTABLE MENTIONING EITHER
OR. WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING CANT RULE OUT FREEZING DRIZZLE IF SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WERE TO OCCUR...BUT AGAIN A LOW CHANCE.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY IT WILL ABSORB A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PRESENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...FORMING A DEEP OCCLUDING LOW ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND REGION.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. WITH BLOCKED
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC...THIS LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMING BLOCKED AND
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THIS MEANS QUIET WEATHER FOR
OUR AREA FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAYBE SLIGHTLY BELOW...DURING MIDWEEK.
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING MIDWEEK WILL
INCH/LEAN EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL LAG
THIS. WHILE HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE AREA...THE
GREATEST HEIGHT AND THERMAL ANOMALIES LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THE TREND HAS BEEN
THIS WAY. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON THEIR WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE CHANCE OF HAVING NEXT WEEKEND IN THE 50S...BUT RIGHT NOW WITHOUT
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THE MAGNITUDE MAY BE HINDERED SOME.
DO THINK THE GFS IS TOO ROBUST ON LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
WEEKEND SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MORE SUNNY ECMWF /ESPECIALLY
FOR SATURDAY/. THE ECMWF HAS HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. GIVEN THE
PATTERN...ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO SLOW FURTHER SO
HAVE BACKED ANY UP UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
* BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. MAY START
AS -FZRA THEN TURN TO SHORT PERIOD OF SLEET/SNOW. IFR CIGS/VSBY
LIKELY FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING ON THE MIXED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
MONDAY MORNING...WITH A VERY SLIGHT SLOWING TREND IN THE ABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. 12Z-14Z SEEMS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR A BURST OF WET SNOW/SLEET ACROSS THE
CHICAGO LAND TERMINALS...10Z-12Z FARTHER WEST TOWARDS ROCKFORD.
AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...PRECIPITATION MAY START AS
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IF THE INITIAL DRY AIR CAN BE OVERCOME BUT
CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS WINDOW MAY BE VERY SHORT. THE AIR
MASS IN THE MAIN FORCING SHOULD BE COLDER AND SUPPORT A TRANSITION
TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLUSHY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS NO HIGHER THAN 1 INCH AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...BUT IT COULD COME
DOWN RATHER QUICKLY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH
POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT TIME AS WELL IF THE PRECIP
TYPE TURNS TO ALL SNOW.
AFTERWARDS THE TREND IS TOWARD KEEPING SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND IN
THE MVFR CATEGORY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO WESTERLY. PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFTER MAIN BAND PUSHES THROUGH.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING MONDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN PROGRESSION OF PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE
ON FZRA.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS BECOMING N.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. N WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. S WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR. S WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. S WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...INCLUDING
POSSIBLY TEMPORARY GALES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE SOMEWHAT ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...MAINLY NORTH OF
CHICAGO...STILL LOOKS TO BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THERE
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
LAKE HURON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TO WEST ON
MONDAY EVENING AND THEN NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND FINALLY TO
NORTH BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD 30 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY IN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO BECOME VERY BLOCKED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE LAKE LOCKED BETWEEN A RIDGE TO ITS IMMEDIATE WEST
AND A LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS GENERALLY 10-15 KT
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
304 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
Mid and high clouds are expansive across the forecast area this
afternoon, although some patches of stratocumulus have been
developing. Larger shield of clouds around 1500 feet starting to
cross the Missouri/Illinois border as well. Water vapor imagery
showing the incoming clipper system quite nicely over the Dakotas.
Latest surface map shows the low center over northern North Dakota,
and its trailing cold front into central Nebraska and western
Kansas.
Main concern is with precipitation types across the north. Still
appears that the precipitation in our area will hold off until after
midnight, and not reach areas east of I-57 until sunrise. The
remainder of the morning model suite has arrived, and all are
generally trending warmer ahead of the incoming clipper. The NAM
and RAP are most prominent with the 850 mb warm nose, around +4 to
+5C, and suggest all rain even in the far north. The GFS, ECMWF and
Canadian models with a more modest +1 to +3C. These all indicate
surface temperatures above freezing as well, but would indicate a
bit of sleet potential as well. Have leaned a bit more on the warmer
side of the guidance and kept it mostly rain, but included a slight
chance of freezing rain from around Champaign northwest through
Bloomington to Minonk. Surface temperatures will remain borderline
with the ice potential, but lows around 33-34 degrees will be common
in much of the forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
The initial shortwave feature associated with the clipper system
will cross the central IL forecast area by mid afternoon, bringing
the best lift and precipitation with the system. Models over the
past day have trended upward with precipitation amounts and now
yield a consensus of a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch.
Precipitation type could linger as freezing rain from around
Danville northwestward until around 8 a.m. but surface temperatures
will quickly rise above freezing to yield all rain through the day.
Subsidence aloft will follow the initial shortwave causing
precipitation to diminish from west to east late morning through
afternoon. Shallow stratus looks to continue into the evening as
cold advection in northwest winds push into the region. Model
soundings indicate the moisture trapped below a subsidence inversion
will be shallow enough that any precipitation would likely be
drizzle, although some potential for snow flurries with little
accumulation exists.
Below normal temperatures in NW flow will continue for midweek. A
deepening low over the east coast will likely cause a blocked
pattern with a slowly moving ridge over the plains. Models have been
inconsistent with handling next weekend but have trended forecast
toward the ECMWF solution which holds the ridge further west and
looks more reasonable. As a result, will hold drier and slightly
cooler temperatures longer into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
Main time frame of concern will be after 06Z, as a clipper system
moves in from the west. Ahead of it, VFR conditions to continue
with only high clouds present, and southeast winds gradually
trending more southerly this evening. The clipper is expected to
spread light rain into the KPIA/KBMI areas in the 09-12Z time
frame. Surface temperatures may be cold enough for some brief
freezing rain especially at KBMI, but have held off on mention for
this for now as confidence is not especially high. Further south,
have kept the VCSH mention as there will still be some dry air to
overcome late tonight. Have kept the development of MVFR
conditions later in the period as visibilities lower ahead of the
clipper, and ceilings around 1500 feet or so should overspread the
region late tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1147 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...
427 AM CST
A HIGH AMPLITUDE...PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRING VERY
CHANGEABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A WINTRY MIXED PCPN EVENT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL LIMIT
ANY FURTHER RADIATIVE COOLING AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT FOR DOWNTOWN
CHICAGO WHICH WILL ONLY DROP TO AROUND 30F. THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY INNOCUOUS WITH CONTINUED INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. AS THE CENTER OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO ERN CANADA...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES...DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING STILL NOSING SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...EVEN AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO UPPER 30S...DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...REMAINING IN THE LOW 20S.
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...CONCERNS WILL BECOME PCPN TYPE
AND AMOUNT WITH THE SYSTEM. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD MAINTAINED A
RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT AS THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN CUT OFF FROM
THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM AND ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HAVE
TO TAKE A LONG PATH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE BEFORE
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM WITH
FORECAST PWATS AROUND 3/4 INCH AND MANY MODELS ARE PAINTING MORE QPF
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THE MODELS ARE OVER
FORECASTING MOISTURE CONTENT AND QPF...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MORE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO QPF AMOUNTS THAT WHAT MANY OF THE MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION. THE
REAL CONCERN WILL BE PCPN TYPE WITH AMOUNTS MORE OF A SECONDARY
CONCERN. THIS IS LARGELY BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN
INTRUSION OF WARM AIR ABOVE A NEARLY SATURATED...BUT BELOW FREEZING
SFC LAYER. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRFARW...WHICH WAS LARGELY
FOLLOWED FOR THE FINER SCALE DETAILS OF THE PCPN TYPE TREND
INDICATES A RATHER THICK WARM LAYER WITH MAX TEMPS WITHING THE WARM
LAYER OF +3 TO +5C ABOVE A SURFACE BASED INVERSION WITH SFC
TEMPERATURES ARND 30F BY THE TIME THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PCPN MOVES
INTO THE FAR NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT PCPN COULD MOVE INTO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY ARND
06Z...AND WITH SFC TEMPS OF 30F...BELOW THE DEEP WARM LAYER...PCPN
SHOULD LARGELY BE FREEZING RAIN. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD STEADILY CROSS THE CWA...REACHING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA
DURG THE PREDAWN HOURS. A RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WITH
700MB OMEGA MAX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE FREEZING RAIN DURG THE MORNING
HOURS. PCPN TYPE BECOME A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN
RELATIVELY QUICKLY AS THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PCPN TRACKS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL DRYING COULD OCCUR BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS A
MODIFIED PACIFIC SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP OFF QUICKLY
OR SIGNIFICANTLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BUT THERE COULD BE A QUICK
BURST OF MODERATE SNOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD WITH THE FROPA AS THE MID
LEVEL WARM LAYER ERODES AND THE ENTIRE COLUMN DROPS BELOW FREEZING.
LATEST THINKING WITH THAT THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE A LEAST A LIGHT
GLAZING OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE QPF AND FORCING WILL
BE STRONGER. ALSO...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ROCKFORD AREA SHOULD HAVE THE
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THE THE BEST TIMING
FOR A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY...BEFORE
SFC TEMPS HAVE A CHANCE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. BY THE TIME THAT
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SFC
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE CHANCES FOR MUCH
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE LOWER....WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN AND SERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER
POSSIBLY ONLY SEEING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE BRIEFLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AND THEN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. SO...THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE WILL
INCLUDE MEASURABLE SNOW NORTH OF THE IL/KANKAKEE RIVERS...WITH THE
I39 CORRIDOR SEEING AS MUCH A 1 INCH OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION...BEFORE
THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN AND MELTS ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW. LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE RIVERS AND EAST OF I-39 SHOULD ONLY SEE AROUND A HALF
INCH SO SO OF SNOW. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE IMPACTS ON TRAVEL
AS THE FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
THE MORNING RUSH HOURS...AND WITH EVEN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...THERE
COULD BE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BY LATE MORNING...SFC TEMPS SHOULD
RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND WITH SFC FLOW ONLY VEERING FROM SWLY TO WLY
WITH THE FROPA...LITTLE ACTUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA
AND TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT
BEGIN UNTIL THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE NEXT SFC HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...SETTING UP NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
BY TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
427 AM CST
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOK TO BE GENERALLY QUIET ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LATEST LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE SHUNTED INTO SERN CANADA BY THE DEEP LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY AND NO
ADDITIONAL PCPN IS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE MAIN IDEA IS THAT THE DEEP COASTAL LOW AND THE PARENT
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS BY
FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY NEXT SATURDAY.
THE LONGER RANGE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY FRIDAY AND
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LONGER RANGE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TENDS TO TREND A LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO THE GOING FORECAST OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR NEXT SATURDAY COULD BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE...AND WITH THE TYPE OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVING...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL THAT TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD VERY
WELL APPROACH OR EXCEED THE 50F MARK.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY.
* BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. MAY START
AS -FZRA THEN TURN TO SHORT PERIOD OF SLEET/SNOW. IFR CIGS/VSBY
LIKELY FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING ON THE MIXED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
MONDAY MORNING...WITH A VERY SLIGHT SLOWING TREND IN THE ABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. 12Z-14Z SEEMS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR A BURST OF WET SNOW/SLEET ACROSS THE
CHICAGO LAND TERMINALS...10Z-12Z FARTHER WEST TOWARDS ROCKFORD.
AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...PRECIPITATION MAY START AS
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IF THE INITIAL DRY AIR CAN BE OVERCOME BUT
CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS WINDOW MAY BE VERY SHORT. THE AIR
MASS IN THE MAIN FORCING SHOULD BE COLDER AND SUPPORT A TRANSITION
TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLUSHY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS NO HIGHER THAN 1 INCH AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...BUT IT COULD COME
DOWN RATHER QUICKLY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH
POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT TIME AS WELL IF THE PRECIP
TYPE TURNS TO ALL SNOW.
AFTERWARDS THE TREND IS TOWARD KEEPING SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND IN
THE MVFR CATEGORY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO WESTERLY. PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFTER MAIN BAND PUSHES THROUGH.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING MONDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN PROGRESSION OF PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS BECOMING N.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. N WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. S WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR. S WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. S WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
251 AM CST
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS HAS ALLOWED
WINDS TO EASE AND TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST AND WILL ALLOW FOR A SHIFT
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE ALLOWING WAVES TO BE ON
A DOWNWARD TREND. WILL CONTINUE WITH A 3-5 OCCASIONAL 7 FT FORECAST.
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND EASTERN MONTANA AND
WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER REACHING LAKE SUPERIOR
BY MIDDAY MONDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RATHER STRONG THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE LOW WILL BE TIGHTENING THROUGH THE DAY
DESPITE THE LOW NOT BEING TERRIBLY DEEP. AS A RESULT WIND SPEEDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO ABOUT 30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE THIS
EVENING WITH SOME 35 KT GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
ILLINOIS NEARSHORE FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
MORNING AS WINDS AND WAVES COME UP. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST WITH
A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN ON
A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS
TO INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND TURN NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.
SPEEDS WILL THEN EASE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER
THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE LATER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE
SLOW TO SHIFT TO THE EAST BUT WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AS IT DOES
THURSDAY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT. STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741...6 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM
MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1136 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
Daytime forecast remains on track, as high clouds overspread the
state from the west.
However, some adjustments have been made to the nighttime trends
ahead of the clipper system. The evening is expected to be dry, so
the PoP`s have been concentrated in the post-midnight hours.
Looking at the forecast soundings across the northern CWA off the
early morning NAM and RAP models, a prominent warm layer around +4
to +5C will be present through the night, so have removed the
mention of snow. The new GFS has a shorter time frame for the warm
layer, cooling it to +2C by morning with ice crystals aloft a bit
more prominent, suggesting more of a rain/snow mixture. Right
now, have mainly gone with a rain/freezing rain mixture north of
I-74 with temperatures in the lower 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
Clouds have cleared out to the south tonight for now, but they are
lingering very close-by. Satellite images already confirm increasing
high clouds from the west. The HRRR is advertising a return of low
clouds from the east-southeast across the eastern half of the area
between 15z/9am and 18z/Noon today, but that seems a bit aggressive
based on the current progression of clouds across Indiana and the
expected wind patterns this morning. Have increased clouds from the
west based on satellite and model consensus, but only trended minor
increases in clouds across the east during the day for now. Will
monitor the movement of low clouds toward our eastern counties for
potential sky cover updates in the short term.
Northeast flow early this morning is expected to evolve to east and
then southeast this afternoon, as high pressure centered over the
Lake Michigan departs farther east across the Great Lakes. The onset
of southeast winds will increase the potential return of low clouds
currently lingering across southern IL.
Temperatures today will only climb about 12-13F above morning lows
due to increasing clouds, with highs topping out in the upper 30s
to low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
High pressure continues to build into the region, although clouds
continue to dominate the Midwest. Plenty of moisture on sat imagery
obscuring the llvl clouds underneath. Clearing in patches certainly
not anticipated for long as llvl moisture remains trapped by
continuing strong inversion over the area. The dry air aloft is not
coincident with enough turbulence to break up the inversion and
erode the higher RH at roughly 925 mb. This dry air will also be
the first issue for eroding the approaching precip late Sun night
and into Monday. Models maintaining consistency with the last two
runs and continuity with one another with regards to approach and
qpf after midnight tonight and into Monday. A quick front moving
through the area bringing precip after midnight and through the day
Monday so far looks like mostly rain, though the nrn tier of the
state may see a bit more of a rain/snow/wintry mix. Concern remains
whether or not the models are too quick to overcome the dry air
aloft or whether or not the precip may be delayed slightly.
Beyond Monday`s cold front, temps cool briefly, then moderate back
into the 40s for highs through the end of the week. 00z GFS
agreeing with yesterdays 00z ECMWF and backing down from the precip
Wed/Thursday, instead dominating the sfc map with high pressure.
Pops mid week have been removed. Deepening low over the
northeast/east coast causing a bit of a back up across the CONUS as
it is slow to move and the models having some issue with pushing the
new wave inland on the Pacific coast and managing the ridging in the
middle. Seems from Friday and into the weekend the forecast becomes
a bit more problematic in the details as the models work out a
pattern shift again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
Main time frame of concern will be after 06Z, as a clipper system
moves in from the west. Ahead of it, VFR conditions to continue
with only high clouds present, and southeast winds gradually
trending more southerly this evening. The clipper is expected to
spread light rain into the KPIA/KBMI areas in the 09-12Z time
frame. Surface temperatures may be cold enough for some brief
freezing rain especially at KBMI, but have held off on mention for
this for now as confidence is not especially high. Further south,
have kept the VCSH mention as there will still be some dry air to
overcome late tonight. Have kept the development of MVFR
conditions later in the period as visibilities lower ahead of the
clipper, and ceilings around 1500 feet or so should overspread the
region late tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1017 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...
427 AM CST
A HIGH AMPLITUDE...PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRING VERY
CHANGEABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A WINTRY MIXED PCPN EVENT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL LIMIT
ANY FURTHER RADIATIVE COOLING AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT FOR DOWNTOWN
CHICAGO WHICH WILL ONLY DROP TO AROUND 30F. THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY INNOCUOUS WITH CONTINUED INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. AS THE CENTER OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO ERN CANADA...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES...DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING STILL NOSING SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...EVEN AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO UPPER 30S...DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...REMAINING IN THE LOW 20S.
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...CONCERNS WILL BECOME PCPN TYPE
AND AMOUNT WITH THE SYSTEM. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD MAINTAINED A
RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT AS THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN CUT OFF FROM
THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM AND ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HAVE
TO TAKE A LONG PATH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE BEFORE
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM WITH
FORECAST PWATS AROUND 3/4 INCH AND MANY MODELS ARE PAINTING MORE QPF
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THE MODELS ARE OVER
FORECASTING MOISTURE CONTENT AND QPF...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MORE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO QPF AMOUNTS THAT WHAT MANY OF THE MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION. THE
REAL CONCERN WILL BE PCPN TYPE WITH AMOUNTS MORE OF A SECONDARY
CONCERN. THIS IS LARGELY BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN
INTRUSION OF WARM AIR ABOVE A NEARLY SATURATED...BUT BELOW FREEZING
SFC LAYER. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRFARW...WHICH WAS LARGELY
FOLLOWED FOR THE FINER SCALE DETAILS OF THE PCPN TYPE TREND
INDICATES A RATHER THICK WARM LAYER WITH MAX TEMPS WITHING THE WARM
LAYER OF +3 TO +5C ABOVE A SURFACE BASED INVERSION WITH SFC
TEMPERATURES ARND 30F BY THE TIME THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PCPN MOVES
INTO THE FAR NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT PCPN COULD MOVE INTO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY ARND
06Z...AND WITH SFC TEMPS OF 30F...BELOW THE DEEP WARM LAYER...PCPN
SHOULD LARGELY BE FREEZING RAIN. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD STEADILY CROSS THE CWA...REACHING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA
DURG THE PREDAWN HOURS. A RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WITH
700MB OMEGA MAX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE FREEZING RAIN DURG THE MORNING
HOURS. PCPN TYPE BECOME A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN
RELATIVELY QUICKLY AS THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PCPN TRACKS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL DRYING COULD OCCUR BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS A
MODIFIED PACIFIC SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP OFF QUICKLY
OR SIGNIFICANTLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BUT THERE COULD BE A QUICK
BURST OF MODERATE SNOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD WITH THE FROPA AS THE MID
LEVEL WARM LAYER ERODES AND THE ENTIRE COLUMN DROPS BELOW FREEZING.
LATEST THINKING WITH THAT THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE A LEAST A LIGHT
GLAZING OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE QPF AND FORCING WILL
BE STRONGER. ALSO...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ROCKFORD AREA SHOULD HAVE THE
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THE THE BEST TIMING
FOR A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY...BEFORE
SFC TEMPS HAVE A CHANCE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. BY THE TIME THAT
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SFC
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE CHANCES FOR MUCH
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE LOWER....WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN AND SERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER
POSSIBLY ONLY SEEING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE BRIEFLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AND THEN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. SO...THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE WILL
INCLUDE MEASURABLE SNOW NORTH OF THE IL/KANKAKEE RIVERS...WITH THE
I39 CORRIDOR SEEING AS MUCH A 1 INCH OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION...BEFORE
THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN AND MELTS ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW. LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE RIVERS AND EAST OF I-39 SHOULD ONLY SEE AROUND A HALF
INCH SO SO OF SNOW. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE IMPACTS ON TRAVEL
AS THE FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
THE MORNING RUSH HOURS...AND WITH EVEN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...THERE
COULD BE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BY LATE MORNING...SFC TEMPS SHOULD
RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND WITH SFC FLOW ONLY VEERING FROM SWLY TO WLY
WITH THE FROPA...LITTLE ACTUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA
AND TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT
BEGIN UNTIL THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE NEXT SFC HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...SETTING UP NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
BY TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
427 AM CST
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOK TO BE GENERALLY QUIET ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LATEST LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE SHUNTED INTO SERN CANADA BY THE DEEP LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY AND NO
ADDITIONAL PCPN IS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE MAIN IDEA IS THAT THE DEEP COASTAL LOW AND THE PARENT
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS BY
FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY NEXT SATURDAY.
THE LONGER RANGE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY FRIDAY AND
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LONGER RANGE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TENDS TO TREND A LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO THE GOING FORECAST OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR NEXT SATURDAY COULD BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE...AND WITH THE TYPE OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVING...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL THAT TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD VERY
WELL APPROACH OR EXCEED THE 50F MARK.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY.
* BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. MAY START
AS -FZRA THEN TURN TO SHORT PERIOD OF SLEET/SNOW. IFR CIGS/VSBY
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT WILL BE
SHIFTING TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH IT. A FEW HOUR PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TOWARD 09Z OUT
NEAR RFD AND TOWARD 11Z IN THE CHICAGO AREA. THE DETAILS REMAIN IN
FLUX BUT THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT
AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
SLEET AND SNOW FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD. FORCING IS STRONG FOR A
SHORT TIME SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW OCCURS
LEADING TO SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATION. PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY
BE FIGHTING A LAYER OF DRY AIR SO ONSET COULD BE DELAYED AND THIS
MAY ALSO AFFECT THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIP TYPES. PRECIP INTENSITY
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. A PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED PROVIDED DECENT PRECIP OCCURS AND IFR VSBY
WOULD BE LIKELY IF A SHORT PERIOD OF MAINLY SNOW CAN OCCUR. BE
SURE TO CHECK BACK FOR FURTHER UPDATES...
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PROGRESSION OF
PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS BECOMING N.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. N WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. S WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR. S WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. S WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
251 AM CST
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS HAS ALLOWED
WINDS TO EASE AND TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST AND WILL ALLOW FOR A SHIFT
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE ALLOWING WAVES TO BE ON
A DOWNWARD TREND. WILL CONTINUE WITH A 3-5 OCCASIONAL 7 FT FORECAST.
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND EASTERN MONTANA AND
WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER REACHING LAKE SUPERIOR
BY MIDDAY MONDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RATHER STRONG THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE LOW WILL BE TIGHTENING THROUGH THE DAY
DESPITE THE LOW NOT BEING TERRIBLY DEEP. AS A RESULT WIND SPEEDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO ABOUT 30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE THIS
EVENING WITH SOME 35 KT GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
ILLINOIS NEARSHORE FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
MORNING AS WINDS AND WAVES COME UP. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST WITH
A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN ON
A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS
TO INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND TURN NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.
SPEEDS WILL THEN EASE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER
THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE LATER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE
SLOW TO SHIFT TO THE EAST BUT WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AS IT DOES
THURSDAY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT. STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741...6 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM
MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1014 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
Daytime forecast remains on track, as high clouds overspread the
state from the west.
However, some adjustments have been made to the nighttime trends
ahead of the clipper system. The evening is expected to be dry, so
the PoP`s have been concentrated in the post-midnight hours.
Looking at the forecast soundings across the northern CWA off the
early morning NAM and RAP models, a prominent warm layer around +4
to +5C will be present through the night, so have removed the
mention of snow. The new GFS has a shorter time frame for the warm
layer, cooling it to +2C by morning with ice crystals aloft a bit
more prominent, suggesting more of a rain/snow mixture. Right
now, have mainly gone with a rain/freezing rain mixture north of
I-74 with temperatures in the lower 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
Clouds have cleared out to the south tonight for now, but they are
lingering very close-by. Satellite images already confirm increasing
high clouds from the west. The HRRR is advertising a return of low
clouds from the east-southeast across the eastern half of the area
between 15z/9am and 18z/Noon today, but that seems a bit aggressive
based on the current progression of clouds across Indiana and the
expected wind patterns this morning. Have increased clouds from the
west based on satellite and model consensus, but only trended minor
increases in clouds across the east during the day for now. Will
monitor the movement of low clouds toward our eastern counties for
potential sky cover updates in the short term.
Northeast flow early this morning is expected to evolve to east and
then southeast this afternoon, as high pressure centered over the
Lake Michigan departs farther east across the Great Lakes. The onset
of southeast winds will increase the potential return of low clouds
currently lingering across southern IL.
Temperatures today will only climb about 12-13F above morning lows
due to increasing clouds, with highs topping out in the upper 30s
to low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
High pressure continues to build into the region, although clouds
continue to dominate the Midwest. Plenty of moisture on sat imagery
obscuring the llvl clouds underneath. Clearing in patches certainly
not anticipated for long as llvl moisture remains trapped by
continuing strong inversion over the area. The dry air aloft is not
coincident with enough turbulence to break up the inversion and
erode the higher RH at roughly 925 mb. This dry air will also be
the first issue for eroding the approaching precip late Sun night
and into Monday. Models maintaining consistency with the last two
runs and continuity with one another with regards to approach and
qpf after midnight tonight and into Monday. A quick front moving
through the area bringing precip after midnight and through the day
Monday so far looks like mostly rain, though the nrn tier of the
state may see a bit more of a rain/snow/wintry mix. Concern remains
whether or not the models are too quick to overcome the dry air
aloft or whether or not the precip may be delayed slightly.
Beyond Monday`s cold front, temps cool briefly, then moderate back
into the 40s for highs through the end of the week. 00z GFS
agreeing with yesterdays 00z ECMWF and backing down from the precip
Wed/Thursday, instead dominating the sfc map with high pressure.
Pops mid week have been removed. Deepening low over the
northeast/east coast causing a bit of a back up across the CONUS as
it is slow to move and the models having some issue with pushing the
new wave inland on the Pacific coast and managing the ridging in the
middle. Seems from Friday and into the weekend the forecast becomes
a bit more problematic in the details as the models work out a
pattern shift again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
High pressure centered over lower Michigan and extending SW into
IL will slide east today. That movement will cause our surface
winds to shift from NE to SE by this afternoon, while increasing
to 10-14kt. High clouds will blanket the entire state today, with
low clouds lurking just south of our forecast area already at
12z/6am. As winds shift to SE, that cloud mass will eventually
gain momentum toward the terminal sites. HRRR indicates that SPI
and DEC will have the higher potential of seeing a return of MVFR
clouds after 22z/4pm, with the clouds eventually advancing all the
way north to PIA/BMI/CMI during the evening. The initial push of
moisture may have breaks in the ceiling per the latest HRRR, so we
delayed the persistent low clouds until later evening when light
rain will begin to develop from NW to SE ahead of an approaching
warm front and low pressure system. While any light rain could
change to freezing rain late in this TAF period, we did not
include FZRA with this issuance. We only mentioned VCSH after
midnight for now.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
556 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...
427 AM CST
A HIGH AMPLITUDE...PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRING VERY
CHANGEABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A WINTRY MIXED PCPN EVENT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL LIMIT
ANY FURTHER RADIATIVE COOLING AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT FOR DOWNTOWN
CHICAGO WHICH WILL ONLY DROP TO AROUND 30F. THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY INNOCUOUS WITH CONTINUED INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. AS THE CENTER OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO ERN CANADA...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES...DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING STILL NOSING SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...EVEN AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO UPPER 30S...DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...REMAINING IN THE LOW 20S.
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...CONCERNS WILL BECOME PCPN TYPE
AND AMOUNT WITH THE SYSTEM. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD MAINTAINED A
RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT AS THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN CUT OFF FROM
THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM AND ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HAVE
TO TAKE A LONG PATH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE BEFORE
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM WITH
FORECAST PWATS AROUND 3/4 INCH AND MANY MODELS ARE PAINTING MORE QPF
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THE MODELS ARE OVER
FORECASTING MOISTURE CONTENT AND QPF...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MORE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO QPF AMOUNTS THAT WHAT MANY OF THE MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION. THE
REAL CONCERN WILL BE PCPN TYPE WITH AMOUNTS MORE OF A SECONDARY
CONCERN. THIS IS LARGELY BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN
INTRUSION OF WARM AIR ABOVE A NEARLY SATURATED...BUT BELOW FREEZING
SFC LAYER. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRFARW...WHICH WAS LARGELY
FOLLOWED FOR THE FINER SCALE DETAILS OF THE PCPN TYPE TREND
INDICATES A RATHER THICK WARM LAYER WITH MAX TEMPS WITHING THE WARM
LAYER OF +3 TO +5C ABOVE A SURFACE BASED INVERSION WITH SFC
TEMPERATURES ARND 30F BY THE TIME THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PCPN MOVES
INTO THE FAR NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT PCPN COULD MOVE INTO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY ARND
06Z...AND WITH SFC TEMPS OF 30F...BELOW THE DEEP WARM LAYER...PCPN
SHOULD LARGELY BE FREEZING RAIN. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD STEADILY CROSS THE CWA...REACHING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA
DURG THE PREDAWN HOURS. A RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WITH
700MB OMEGA MAX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE FREEZING RAIN DURG THE MORNING
HOURS. PCPN TYPE BECOME A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN
RELATIVELY QUICKLY AS THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PCPN TRACKS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL DRYING COULD OCCUR BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS A
MODIFIED PACIFIC SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP OFF QUICKLY
OR SIGNIFICANTLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BUT THERE COULD BE A QUICK
BURST OF MODERATE SNOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD WITH THE FROPA AS THE MID
LEVEL WARM LAYER ERODES AND THE ENTIRE COLUMN DROPS BELOW FREEZING.
LATEST THINKING WITH THAT THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE A LEAST A LIGHT
GLAZING OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE QPF AND FORCING WILL
BE STRONGER. ALSO...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ROCKFORD AREA SHOULD HAVE THE
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THE THE BEST TIMING
FOR A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY...BEFORE
SFC TEMPS HAVE A CHANCE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. BY THE TIME THAT
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SFC
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE CHANCES FOR MUCH
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE LOWER....WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN AND SERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER
POSSIBLY ONLY SEEING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE BRIEFLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AND THEN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. SO...THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE WILL
INCLUDE MEASURABLE SNOW NORTH OF THE IL/KANKAKEE RIVERS...WITH THE
I39 CORRIDOR SEEING AS MUCH A 1 INCH OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION...BEFORE
THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN AND MELTS ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW. LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE RIVERS AND EAST OF I-39 SHOULD ONLY SEE AROUND A HALF
INCH SO SO OF SNOW. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE IMPACTS ON TRAVEL
AS THE FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
THE MORNING RUSH HOURS...AND WITH EVEN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...THERE
COULD BE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BY LATE MORNING...SFC TEMPS SHOULD
RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND WITH SFC FLOW ONLY VEERING FROM SWLY TO WLY
WITH THE FROPA...LITTLE ACTUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA
AND TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT
BEGIN UNTIL THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE NEXT SFC HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...SETTING UP NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
BY TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
427 AM CST
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOK TO BE GENERALLY QUIET ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LATEST LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE SHUNTED INTO SERN CANADA BY THE DEEP LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY AND NO
ADDITIONAL PCPN IS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE MAIN IDEA IS THAT THE DEEP COASTAL LOW AND THE PARENT
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS BY
FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY NEXT SATURDAY.
THE LONGER RANGE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY FRIDAY AND
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LONGER RANGE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TENDS TO TREND A LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO THE GOING FORECAST OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR NEXT SATURDAY COULD BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE...AND WITH THE TYPE OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVING...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL THAT TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD VERY
WELL APPROACH OR EXCEED THE 50F MARK.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY.
* BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. MAY START
AS -FZRA THEN TURN TO SHORT PERIOD OF SLEET/SNOW. IFR CIGS/VSBY
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT WILL BE
SHIFTING TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH IT. A FEW HOUR PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TOWARD 09Z OUT
NEAR RFD AND TOWARD 11Z IN THE CHICAGO AREA. THE DETAILS REMAIN IN
FLUX BUT THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT
AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
SLEET AND SNOW FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD. FORCING IS STRONG FOR A
SHORT TIME SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW OCCURS
LEADING TO SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATION. PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY
BE FIGHTING A LAYER OF DRY AIR SO ONSET COULD BE DELAYED AND THIS
MAY ALSO AFFECT THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIP TYPES. PRECIP INTENSITY
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. A PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED PROVIDED DECENT PRECIP OCCURS AND IFR VSBY
WOULD BE LIKELY IF A SHORT PERIOD OF MAINLY SNOW CAN OCCUR. BE
SURE TO CHECK BACK FOR FURTHER UPDATES...
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PROGRESSION OF
PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS BECOMING N.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. N WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. S WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR. S WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. S WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
251 AM CST
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS HAS ALLOWED
WINDS TO EASE AND TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST AND WILL ALLOW FOR A SHIFT
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE ALLOWING WAVES TO BE ON
A DOWNWARD TREND. WILL CONTINUE WITH A 3-5 OCCASIONAL 7 FT FORECAST.
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND EASTERN MONTANA AND
WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER REACHING LAKE SUPERIOR
BY MIDDAY MONDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RATHER STRONG THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE LOW WILL BE TIGHTENING THROUGH THE DAY
DESPITE THE LOW NOT BEING TERRIBLY DEEP. AS A RESULT WIND SPEEDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO ABOUT 30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE THIS
EVENING WITH SOME 35 KT GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
ILLINOIS NEARSHORE FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
MORNING AS WINDS AND WAVES COME UP. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST WITH
A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN ON
A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS
TO INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND TURN NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.
SPEEDS WILL THEN EASE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER
THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE LATER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE
SLOW TO SHIFT TO THE EAST BUT WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AS IT DOES
THURSDAY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT. STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741...6 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM
MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
554 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
Clouds have cleared out to the south tonight for now, but they are
lingering very close-by. Satellite images already confirm increasing
high clouds from the west. The HRRR is advertising a return of low
clouds from the east-southeast across the eastern half of the area
between 15z/9am and 18z/Noon today, but that seems a bit aggressive
based on the current progression of clouds across Indiana and the
expected wind patterns this morning. Have increased clouds from the
west based on satellite and model consensus, but only trended minor
increases in clouds across the east during the day for now. Will
monitor the movement of low clouds toward our eastern counties for
potential sky cover updates in the short term.
Northeast flow early this morning is expected to evolve to east and
then southeast this afternoon, as high pressure centered over the
Lake Michigan departs farther east across the Great Lakes. The onset
of southeast winds will increase the potential return of low clouds
currently lingering across southern IL.
Temperatures today will only climb about 12-13F above morning lows
due to increasing clouds, with highs topping out in the upper 30s
to low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
High pressure continues to build into the region, although clouds
continue to dominate the Midwest. Plenty of moisture on sat imagery
obscuring the llvl clouds underneath. Clearing in patches certainly
not anticipated for long as llvl moisture remains trapped by
continuing strong inversion over the area. The dry air aloft is not
coincident with enough turbulence to break up the inversion and
erode the higher RH at roughly 925 mb. This dry air will also be
the first issue for eroding the approaching precip late Sun night
and into Monday. Models maintaining consistency with the last two
runs and continuity with one another with regards to approach and
qpf after midnight tonight and into Monday. A quick front moving
through the area bringing precip after midnight and through the day
Monday so far looks like mostly rain, though the nrn tier of the
state may see a bit more of a rain/snow/wintry mix. Concern remains
whether or not the models are too quick to overcome the dry air
aloft or whether or not the precip may be delayed slightly.
Beyond Monday`s cold front, temps cool briefly, then moderate back
into the 40s for highs through the end of the week. 00z GFS
agreeing with yesterdays 00z ECMWF and backing down from the precip
Wed/Thursday, instead dominating the sfc map with high pressure.
Pops mid week have been removed. Deepening low over the
northeast/east coast causing a bit of a back up across the CONUS as
it is slow to move and the models having some issue with pushing the
new wave inland on the Pacific coast and managing the ridging in the
middle. Seems from Friday and into the weekend the forecast becomes
a bit more problematic in the details as the models work out a
pattern shift again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
High pressure centered over lower Michigan and extending SW into
IL will slide east today. That movement will cause our surface
winds to shift from NE to SE by this afternoon, while increasing
to 10-14kt. High clouds will blanket the entire state today, with
low clouds lurking just south of our forecast area already at
12z/6am. As winds shift to SE, that cloud mass will eventually
gain momentum toward the terminal sites. HRRR indicates that SPI
and DEC will have the higher potential of seeing a return of MVFR
clouds after 22z/4pm, with the clouds eventually advancing all the
way north to PIA/BMI/CMI during the evening. The initial push of
moisture may have breaks in the ceiling per the latest HRRR, so we
delayed the persistent low clouds until later evening when light
rain will begin to develop from NW to SE ahead of an approaching
warm front and low pressure system. While any light rain could
change to freezing rain late in this TAF period, we did not
include FZRA with this issuance. We only mentioned VCSH after
midnight for now.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
430 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...
427 AM CST
A HIGH AMPLITUDE...PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRING VERY
CHANGEABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A WINTRY MIXED PCPN EVENT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL LIMIT
ANY FURTHER RADIATIVE COOLING AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT FOR DOWNTOWN
CHICAGO WHICH WILL ONLY DROP TO AROUND 30F. THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY INNOCUOUS WITH CONTINUED INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. AS THE CENTER OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO ERN CANADA...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES...DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING STILL NOSING SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...EVEN AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO UPPER 30S...DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...REMAINING IN THE LOW 20S.
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...CONCERNS WILL BECOME PCPN TYPE
AND AMOUNT WITH THE SYSTEM. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD MAINTAINED A
RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT AS THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN CUT OFF FROM
THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM AND ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HAVE
TO TAKE A LONG PATH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE BEFORE
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM WITH
FORECAST PWATS AROUND 3/4 INCH AND MANY MODELS ARE PAINTING MORE QPF
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THE MODELS ARE OVER
FORECASTING MOISTURE CONTENT AND QPF...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MORE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO QPF AMOUNTS THAT WHAT MANY OF THE MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION. THE
REAL CONCERN WILL BE PCPN TYPE WITH AMOUNTS MORE OF A SECONDARY
CONCERN. THIS IS LARGELY BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN
INTRUSION OF WARM AIR ABOVE A NEARLY SATURATED...BUT BELOW FREEZING
SFC LAYER. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRFARW...WHICH WAS LARGELY
FOLLOWED FOR THE FINER SCALE DETAILS OF THE PCPN TYPE TREND
INDICATES A RATHER THICK WARM LAYER WITH MAX TEMPS WITHING THE WARM
LAYER OF +3 TO +5C ABOVE A SURFACE BASED INVERSION WITH SFC
TEMPERATURES ARND 30F BY THE TIME THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PCPN MOVES
INTO THE FAR NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT PCPN COULD MOVE INTO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY ARND
06Z...AND WITH SFC TEMPS OF 30F...BELOW THE DEEP WARM LAYER...PCPN
SHOULD LARGELY BE FREEZING RAIN. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD STEADILY CROSS THE CWA...REACHING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA
DURG THE PREDAWN HOURS. A RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WITH
700MB OMEGA MAX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE FREEZING RAIN DURG THE MORNING
HOURS. PCPN TYPE BECOME A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN
RELATIVELY QUICKLY AS THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PCPN TRACKS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL DRYING COULD OCCUR BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS A
MODIFIED PACIFIC SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP OFF QUICKLY
OR SIGNIFICANTLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BUT THERE COULD BE A QUICK
BURST OF MODERATE SNOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD WITH THE FROPA AS THE MID
LEVEL WARM LAYER ERODES AND THE ENTIRE COLUMN DROPS BELOW FREEZING.
LATEST THINKING WITH THAT THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE A LEAST A LIGHT
GLAZING OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE QPF AND FORCING WILL
BE STRONGER. ALSO...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ROCKFORD AREA SHOULD HAVE THE
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THE THE BEST TIMING
FOR A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY...BEFORE
SFC TEMPS HAVE A CHANCE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. BY THE TIME THAT
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SFC
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE CHANCES FOR MUCH
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE LOWER....WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN AND SERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER
POSSIBLY ONLY SEEING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE BRIEFLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AND THEN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. SO...THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE WILL
INCLUDE MEASURABLE SNOW NORTH OF THE IL/KANKAKEE RIVERS...WITH THE
I39 CORRIDOR SEEING AS MUCH A 1 INCH OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION...BEFORE
THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN AND MELTS ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW. LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE RIVERS AND EAST OF I-39 SHOULD ONLY SEE AROUND A HALF
INCH SO SO OF SNOW. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE IMPACTS ON TRAVEL
AS THE FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
THE MORNING RUSH HOURS...AND WITH EVEN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...THERE
COULD BE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BY LATE MORNING...SFC TEMPS SHOULD
RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND WITH SFC FLOW ONLY VEERING FROM SWLY TO WLY
WITH THE FROPA...LITTLE ACTUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA
AND TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT
BEGIN UNTIL THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE NEXT SFC HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...SETTING UP NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
BY TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S.
KREIN
&&
.LONGER TERM...
427 AM CST
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOK TO BE GENERALLY QUIET ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LATEST LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE SHUNTED INTO SERN CANADA BY THE DEEP LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY AND NO
ADDITIONAL PCPN IS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE MAIN IDEA IS THAT THE DEEP COASTAL LOW AND THE PARENT
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS BY
FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY NEXT SATURDAY.
THE LONGER RANGE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY FRIDAY AND
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LONGER RANGE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TENDS TO TREND A LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO THE GOING FORECAST OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR NEXT SATURDAY COULD BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE...AND WITH THE TYPE OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVING...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL THAT TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD VERY
WELL APPROACH OR EXCEED THE 50F MARK.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY.
* LOWERING CIGS AND A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION STARTING
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND BE FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 10 KT DURING THE DAY. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY MORNING. VFR HIGH CLOUDS WILL
STREAM OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE LOWERING
INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT. A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY
STARTING JUST PRIOR TO 12Z AT RFD AND AROUND OR SOON AFTER 12Z AT
DPA/ORD/MDW/GYY. DETAILS ARE STILL IN FLUX BUT SOME SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWERING CIGS AND A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SLEET/SNOW MIX IN THE MORNING. MVFR/BRIEF IFR
POSSIBLE. S WINDS BECOMING W.
TUESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS BECOMING N.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. N WINDS BECOMING NE.
THURSDAY...VFR. S WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR. S WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
251 AM CST
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS HAS ALLOWED
WINDS TO EASE AND TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST AND WILL ALLOW FOR A SHIFT
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE ALLOWING WAVES TO BE ON
A DOWNWARD TREND. WILL CONTINUE WITH A 3-5 OCCASIONAL 7 FT FORECAST.
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND EASTERN MONTANA AND
WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER REACHING LAKE SUPERIOR
BY MIDDAY MONDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RATHER STRONG THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE LOW WILL BE TIGHTENING THROUGH THE DAY
DESPITE THE LOW NOT BEING TERRIBLY DEEP. AS A RESULT WIND SPEEDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO ABOUT 30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE THIS
EVENING WITH SOME 35 KT GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
ILLINOIS NEARSHORE FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
MORNING AS WINDS AND WAVES COME UP. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST WITH
A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN ON
A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS
TO INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND TURN NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.
SPEEDS WILL THEN EASE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER
THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE LATER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE
SLOW TO SHIFT TO THE EAST BUT WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AS IT DOES
THURSDAY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT. STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741...6 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM
MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
332 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
Clouds have cleared out to the south tonight for now, but they are
lingering very close-by. Satellite images already confirm increasing
high clouds from the west. The HRRR is advertising a return of low
clouds from the east-southeast across the eastern half of the area
between 15z/9am and 18z/Noon today, but that seems a bit aggressive
based on the current progression of clouds across Indiana and the
expected wind patterns this morning. Have increased clouds from the
west based on satellite and model consensus, but only trended minor
increases in clouds across the east during the day for now. Will
monitor the movement of low clouds toward our eastern counties for
potential sky cover updates in the short term.
Northeast flow early this morning is expected to evolve to east and
then southeast this afternoon, as high pressure centered over the
Lake Michigan departs farther east across the Great Lakes. The onset
of southeast winds will increase the potential return of low clouds
currently lingering across southern IL.
Temperatures today will only climb about 12-13F above morning lows
due to increasing clouds, with highs topping out in the upper 30s
to low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
High pressure continues to build into the region, although clouds
continue to dominate the Midwest. Plenty of moisture on sat imagery
obscuring the llvl clouds underneath. Clearing in patches certainly
not anticipated for long as llvl moisture remains trapped by
continuing strong inversion over the area. The dry air aloft is not
coincident with enough turbulence to break up the inversion and
erode the higher RH at roughly 925 mb. This dry air will also be
the first issue for eroding the approaching precip late Sun night
and into Monday. Models maintaining consistency with the last two
runs and continuity with one another with regards to approach and
qpf after midnight tonight and into Monday. A quick front moving
through the area bringing precip after midnight and through the day
Monday so far looks like mostly rain, though the nrn tier of the
state may see a bit more of a rain/snow/wintry mix. Concern remains
whether or not the models are too quick to overcome the dry air
aloft or whether or not the precip may be delayed slightly.
Beyond Monday`s cold front, temps cool briefly, then moderate back
into the 40s for highs through the end of the week. 00z GFS
agreeing with yesterdays 00z ECMWF and backing down from the precip
Wed/Thursday, instead dominating the sfc map with high pressure.
Pops mid week have been removed. Deepening low over the
northeast/east coast causing a bit of a back up across the CONUS as
it is slow to move and the models having some issue with pushing the
new wave inland on the Pacific coast and managing the ridging in the
middle. Seems from Friday and into the weekend the forecast becomes
a bit more problematic in the details as the models work out a
pattern shift again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT EXCEPTION FOR SPI AS HAZE STILL LINGERS
REDUCING VIS TO MVFR. HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THIS WILL STICK
AROUND VERY LONG SINCE UPSTREAM AT AAA VIS HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUT
ABOVE 6SM FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THEREFORE...USED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE NEXT HOUR TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE REDUCED VIS IMPROVING TO VFR WITHIN THE HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN OVER THE TAF SITES WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
OUT IN THE PLAINS. ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN...WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW.
CIGS APPEAR TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACCORDING TO
GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS. PIA...BMI...AND SPI COULD SEE VCSH
TOMORROW NIGHT AROUND 03Z/04Z...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN RAIN
FALLING OVER THE SITES BEFORE 06Z TO INCLUDE ANYTHING ELSE. THIS CAN
BE UPDATED IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF NEEDED.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1149 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...
257 PM CST
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
CONTINUED TO EASE IN DRIER AIR. MID-AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS ONLY SOME DEPARTING STRATUS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND SOME REMAINING RIBBONS OF LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONFIRMS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR AND SUPPRESSION MOVING OVERHEAD WHICH
SHOULD MITIGATE CLOUDS THIS EVENING...OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS INCHING WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN IL WITHIN THE
VEERING FLOW. A LIGHT WIND COMPONENT WILL REMAIN THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH AS THE 1039 MB HIGH PASSES ACROSS WI...THE WINDS WILL
LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALLOWING FOR FURTHER TEMPERATURE
DROP. DEW POINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THIS AT PRESENT...BUT
NOT REALLY A PATTERN WHERE WOULD EXPECT FOG...ESPECIALLY ANYTHING
OF NOTE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SETTLE IN ON SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH
AND LOW PRESSURE MARCHING EASTWARD NEAR THE NORTHERN CONUS BORDER.
HIGH CLOUDS LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE/THICKEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN HIGHS TODAY REACHED THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
WOULD ENVISION SUNDAY BEING IN THE SAME ARENA IF CLOUDS DO NOT
THICKEN EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
315 PM CST
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
OVERALL THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH ONLY A QUICK HIT OF SOME COLDER
AIR FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING POTENTIAL OF A QUICK HIT OF
WINTERY WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM OF
INTEREST...NOW SHIFTING ONSHORE ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE. THIS
FEATURE...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK QUICKLY ALONG OR NEAR THE CANADIAN INTERNATIONAL
BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TYPICALLY THIS TYPE OF TRACK IS NOT
GOOD FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA...AND OVERALL THIS WILL BE
THE CASE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT QUICK HIT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A PERIOD OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH SOME DECENT
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THAT AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD
PROVIDE A SHORT PERIOD OF FORCING SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. OVERALL...THIS STILL APPEARS
TO BE A SMALL EVENT FOR THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT A
STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE A SHORT PERIOD OF ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING...SUPPORTIVE A
SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PRESENCE
OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO MONDAY MORNING. THUS...IT
APPEARS THAT BAND OF PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY ONLY LASTING A COUPLE
HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION...IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN
TIME FOR THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH.
PRECIP TYPE STILL APPEARS TO BE TRICKY WITH THIS ACTIVITY EARLY
MONDAY. ASIDE FOR THE NAM SOLUTION...MOST MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INDICATE MAX LAYER TEMPERATURES OF ONLY +1
TO +1.5 DEGREES CELSIUS...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST ONLY PARTIAL MELTING OF
DENDRITES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SNOW AND SLEET PRECIP TYPES ACROSS
MOST OF FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ALSO...GIVEN THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
ENHANCE PRECIP RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGH...IT APPEARS
PRUDENT TO MENTION MORE OF A SNOW AND SLEET SCENARIO ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...I
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN FACT...SOME
AREAS COULD GET A QUICK INCH OF SNOW...IF IT FALLS PRIMARILY AS SUCH.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-88 IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH TOTAL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK HALF TO ONE INCH OF
SNOW RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR THE
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 COULD SEE MORE
OF MIX BAG OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW GIVEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HERE MAY BE
HOVERING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...SO QUESTIONS STILL RESIDE AROUND
HOW MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WILL BE FROZEN.
ONCE THIS BAND OF HEAVER PRECIP SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT THE MID LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SUBSTANTIALLY...THUS ANY LINGERING PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON WOULD
LIKELY BE MORE DRIZZLY. THE COLDER SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING...AS WINDS BECOME A
BIT GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A COLDER
DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THEN AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE NORTHERLY LATE
TUESDAY THESE LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES COULD GET INTO NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS TUESDAY EVENING. OVERALL...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
OF A LAKE EFFECT EVENT AS LAKE INDUCED INVERSION HEIGHTS DO NOT
APPEAR VERY IMPRESSIVE...AND EVEN APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE.
THE WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY QUIT...BUT ON
A WARMING TREND. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS LATER IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE
PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
AND GULF OF ALASKA REGION SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
NORTH AMERICAN COAST. THIS PARTICULARLY PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO BE
CONDUCE FOR A PERIOD OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT FRIDAY
AND ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN INDICATING THIS LARGER SCALE EL NINO-LIKE PATTERN
EVOLVING...AND GIVEN THAT THIS IS PATTERN KNOWN FOR PRODUCING MILD
CONDITIONS LOCALLY...CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD TO
EXPERIENCE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME I HAVE REMAINED
A BIT CONSERVATIVE ON TEMPERATURES...ONLY WARMING THEM TO NEAR 50 FOR
SATURDAY. THIS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO LOW IF THE CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS PAN OUT. MOST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 925 MB TEMPERATURES
ANYWHERE FROM +6 TO +10 DEGREES CELSIUS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY NEXT SATURDAY UNDER A 570+ DM MID LEVEL
RIDGE.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY.
* LOWERING CIGS AND A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION STARTING
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND BE FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 10 KT DURING THE DAY. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY MORNING. VFR HIGH CLOUDS WILL
STREAM OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE LOWERING
INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT. A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY
STARTING JUST PRIOR TO 12Z AT RFD AND AROUND OR SOON AFTER 12Z AT
DPA/ORD/MDW/GYY. DETAILS ARE STILL IN FLUX BUT SOME SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWERING CIGS AND A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SLEET/SNOW MIX IN THE MORNING. MVFR/BRIEF IFR
POSSIBLE. S WINDS BECOMING W.
TUESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS BECOMING N.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. N WINDS BECOMING NE.
THURSDAY...VFR. S WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR. S WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
222 PM CST
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY WILL EASE THIS
EVENING AND VEER EASTWARD BY OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5
FT BY LATE TONIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ADVANCING OVER THE LAKE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ALREADY BY SUNDAY WITH WINDS
TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY.
SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM QUEBEC AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL REALLY TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO TURN SOUTH AND
STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT GUSTS
PRIMARILY UP TO 25 TO 30 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS...BUT COULD SEE A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ON NORTH HALF. COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL TURN
WEST-NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING SPEEDS/GUSTS UP TO 30 KT LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES ON THE
NORTH TUESDAY MORNING WHEN PRESSURE RISES MAXIMIZE. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
TRAVERSES THE LAKE...SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ILLINOIS
SHORE. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY.
MTF/RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1132 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
The low clouds that plagued our area all day long have cleared all
but our far south and southeast counties this evening. However,
a large band of cirrus was streaming east into our area and will
be with us overnight and into most of Sunday. Temperatures for the
first few hours after skies cleared fell rapidly across the north
but have since steadied out some as the high level cloud cover
overspread the area. The latest surface map has a large area of
high pressure over central Wisconsin which is expected to push
east across the central Great Lakes over the next 24 hours keeping
our weather quiet. Have already sent out an update to address the
overnight temperatures across the north, with the remainder of
the forecast in good shape this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
Clearing trend has finally started to make some headway southward
this afternoon, with the edge of the stratocumulus deck generally
along a Macomb to Peoria to Pontiac line at 230 pm. AWIPS timing
tool would suggest a position along I-72 in the 530-6 pm time frame,
while the HRRR is a bit slower around 8 pm. Additional erosion from
the northeast is indicated by the HRRR late evening, although at the
same time cirrus clouds will be streaming east from the Plains.
Thus, have mainly gone with a partly cloudy sky for tonight`s
forecast.
North/northeast flow to prevail into tonight, as high pressure
currently over Lake Superior settles southeast across the Great
Lakes. Temperatures expected to drop into the mid to upper 20s
overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
High pressure will shift eastward from Illinois Sunday as a clipper
system approaches from the WNW. This system will start bringing
increasingly thick high clouds through the day Sunday, but the air
mass will generally remain quite dry in a layer from around 2000 to
12000 feet. This dry layer will take some time to saturate
overnight, which means only a slight chance for precipitation NW of
the Illinois River before midnight. These layers will saturate
through the night allowing a better chance for precipitation
reaching the surface mainly during the morning. Dry air will start
to move in aloft during the day Monday as the system shifts east of
the area, ending deep enough saturation for precipitation processes
to take place. Precipitation type looks to be largely rain for
central Illinois given a deep warm layer just off the surface. Still
some chance for light freezing rain with temperatures hovering very
near the freezing mark at the surface. Farther to the north, the
warm layer off the surface is less pronounced, which could allow for
snow or a mix of rain and snow to reach the surface..
A high pressure ridge will develop over the plains for much of the
week with NW flow and dry conditions for central IL. Temperatures
will remain below normal for much of the week as a result. Friday
and Saturday may see a substantial warmup as the plains ridge shifts
over IL. Only chance for precipitation in the extended forecast at
this time appears to be around Friday morning as a few models hint
at a weak disturbance meandering through the region at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT EXCEPTION FOR SPI AS HAZE STILL LINGERS
REDUCING VIS TO MVFR. HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THIS WILL STICK
AROUND VERY LONG SINCE UPSTREAM AT AAA VIS HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUT
ABOVE 6SM FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THEREFORE...USED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE NEXT HOUR TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE REDUCED VIS IMPROVING TO VFR WITHIN THE HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN OVER THE TAF SITES WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
OUT IN THE PLAINS. ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN...WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW.
CIGS APPEAR TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACCORDING TO
GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS. PIA...BMI...AND SPI COULD SEE VCSH
TOMORROW NIGHT AROUND 03Z/04Z...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN RAIN
FALLING OVER THE SITES BEFORE 06Z TO INCLUDE ANYTHING ELSE. THIS CAN
BE UPDATED IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF NEEDED.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
924 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO TUESDAY. AFTERWARD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN
MONDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
0130Z UPDATE...BASED ON TRENDS THUS FAR THIS EVENING AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING ON THE OVERNIGHT WEATHER. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
INCREASE POPS LATE THIS EVENING ON AVERAGE OF 20 PERCENT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SECOND WAVE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE
MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LATEST RUNS SHOW HRRR AND SREF
HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS CONSIDERABLY AFTER 06Z...WHICH WILL BE
POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO LEFT POPS AS IS AFTER THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z AND FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BECAUSE IF TEMPS
PLUMMET MAY HAVE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS WHICH COULD CAUSE
SLICK/ICY ROADS. MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN FORECAST FOR CWA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE...BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED REGARDLESS FOR POTENTIAL
NEED FOR UPDATES AND/OR STATEMENTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TONIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING. MAV MOS GIVES VERY LOW POPS WHILE MET MOS IS
PRETTY HIGH. REALITY WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN.
MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED TO THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
PRETTY QUICKLY...SO THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER ICE WILL BE
INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD. TIME SECTIONS SHOW THAT IT WILL BE
CLOSE...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF DRIZZLE AND RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT TEMPERATURES
COOL FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT MAKING ANY PRECIPITATION
/ASIDE FROM THE DRIZZLE/ SNOW.
WENT NEAR MAV MOS MOST AREAS FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THIS KEEPS
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.
THUS WHILE CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS
TIME...FEEL THAT COVERAGE AND LENGTH OF ANY THAT DOES APPEAR IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLICK SPOTS EARLY
IN THE MORNING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR
BRIDGES/OVERPASSES/UNTREATED SURFACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THEN ON SKY COVER.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
EXITING UPPER SYSTEM AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES ON
TUESDAY AND COULD ALSO HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IF SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. PROBLEM REMAINS LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
LACK OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION
OF DRIZZLE AND SNOW WITH LOW POPS MOST AREAS. AS NOTED IN THE NEAR
TERM CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOME AREAS VERY EARLY TUESDAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY NIGHT FORCING ENDS SO DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION. HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...BUT STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN USA KEEPS THE AREA IN CYCLONIC FLOW. THUS EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GAIN MORE
INFLUENCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO ALLOWED FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THEN.
FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS TUESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER. CUT SOME ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH EXPECTED SKY COVER.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES COMING
TOGETHER FOR DAY 7 WITH THE GFS QUICKER WITH SEPARATE UPPER
LOWS...IN SPLIT FLOW...ACROSS THE UPPER AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS. DESPITE BEING QUICKER WITH THESE SYSTEMS...THE GFS WAS
SLOWER WITH THE QPF THAN THE EURO. WITH THE GFS TYPICAL TOO FAST AND
THE EURO TO STRONG WITH STRONGER SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW...WILL ACCEPT
THE REGIONAL BLEND WHICH HOLDS OFF RAIN CHANCES TIL MONDAY.
00Z DECEMBER 8 ECM MOS HIGHS CLOSE TO REGIONAL BLEND AND LOOK GOOD
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S BY SUNDAY.
THIS ALSO MATCHES UP NICELY WITH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO
10 DAY OUTLOOK WHICH STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 090300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 924 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AHEAD OF IT. TIMING OF THE FRONT AT KIND MAY BE
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOT BY
MUCH. ALSO APPEARS THERE MAY BE LESS IN THE WAY OF POST FRONTAL IFR
CEILINGS BASED ON WHAT IS UPSTREAM.
WILL HOLD THINGS AS IS FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 005-007 AGL...ALONG WITH AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE. THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT...ROUGHLY 090300Z-090800Z. AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT.
AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE LOW CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH CEILING RISING TO AROUND 015 BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY.
WIND SHIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOK RATHER DIFFUSE IN
THE MODELS...SO EXPECTING MORE A GRADUAL VEERING OF THE WIND AROUND
TO 290-310 DEGREES BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 10-13 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...KOCH
AVIATION...JAS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
853 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO TUESDAY. AFTERWARD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN
MONDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
0130Z UPDATE...BASED ON TRENDS THUS FAR THIS EVENING AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING ON THE OVERNIGHT WEATHER. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
INCREASE POPS LATE THIS EVENING ON AVERAGE OF 20 PERCENT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SECOND WAVE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE
MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LATEST RUNS SHOW HRRR AND SREF
HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS CONSIDERABLY AFTER 06Z...WHICH WILL BE
POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO LEFT POPS AS IS AFTER THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z AND FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BECAUSE IF TEMPS
PLUMMET MAY HAVE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS WHICH COULD CAUSE
SLICK/ICY ROADS. MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN FORECAST FOR CWA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE...BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED REGARDLESS FOR POTENTIAL
NEED FOR UPDATES AND/OR STATEMENTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TONIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING. MAV MOS GIVES VERY LOW POPS WHILE MET MOS IS
PRETTY HIGH. REALITY WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN.
MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED TO THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
PRETTY QUICKLY...SO THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER ICE WILL BE
INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD. TIME SECTIONS SHOW THAT IT WILL BE
CLOSE...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF DRIZZLE AND RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT TEMPERATURES
COOL FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT MAKING ANY PRECIPITATION
/ASIDE FROM THE DRIZZLE/ SNOW.
WENT NEAR MAV MOS MOST AREAS FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THIS KEEPS
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.
THUS WHILE CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS
TIME...FEEL THAT COVERAGE AND LENGTH OF ANY THAT DOES APPEAR IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLICK SPOTS EARLY
IN THE MORNING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR
BRIDGES/OVERPASSES/UNTREATED SURFACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THEN ON SKY COVER.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
EXITING UPPER SYSTEM AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES ON
TUESDAY AND COULD ALSO HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IF SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. PROBLEM REMAINS LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
LACK OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION
OF DRIZZLE AND SNOW WITH LOW POPS MOST AREAS. AS NOTED IN THE NEAR
TERM CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOME AREAS VERY EARLY TUESDAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY NIGHT FORCING ENDS SO DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION. HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...BUT STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN USA KEEPS THE AREA IN CYCLONIC FLOW. THUS EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GAIN MORE
INFLUENCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO ALLOWED FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THEN.
FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS TUESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER. CUT SOME ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH EXPECTED SKY COVER.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES COMING
TOGETHER FOR DAY 7 WITH THE GFS QUICKER WITH SEPARATE UPPER
LOWS...IN SPLIT FLOW...ACROSS THE UPPER AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS. DESPITE BEING QUICKER WITH THESE SYSTEMS...THE GFS WAS
SLOWER WITH THE QPF THAN THE EURO. WITH THE GFS TYPICAL TOO FAST AND
THE EURO TO STRONG WITH STRONGER SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW...WILL ACCEPT
THE REGIONAL BLEND WHICH HOLDS OFF RAIN CHANCES TIL MONDAY.
00Z DECEMBER 8 ECM MOS HIGHS CLOSE TO REGIONAL BLEND AND LOOK GOOD
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S BY SUNDAY.
THIS ALSO MATCHES UP NICELY WITH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO
10 DAY OUTLOOK WHICH STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 090000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 535 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 005-007 AGL...ALONG WITH AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE. THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT...ROUGHLY 090300Z-090800Z. AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT.
AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE LOW CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH CEILING RISING TO AROUND 015 BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY.
WIND SHIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOK RATHER DIFFUSE IN
THE MODELS...SO EXPECTING MORE A GRADUAL VEERING OF THE WIND AROUND
TO 290-310 DEGREES BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 10-13 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...KOCH
AVIATION...JAS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
746 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
UPDATES REQUIRED FOR FIRST AND SECOND PERIODS (TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY) FOCUSING ON ARRIVAL OF POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
AT 0230Z CIRRUS SHIELD THAT WAS OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY IS
MOVING EAST AND SLOWLY OUT OF THE AREA. AM EXPECTING MORE TO MOVE
IN LATER IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
AT THE SFC STRATUS PER SATELLITE OBS AND RUC 900MB RH FORECAST
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. BY 06Z THIS
NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRATUS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY REACH AREAS JUST
TO THE NORTHEAST FROM MCCOOK TO NORTON. AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO
BACK INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS STRATUS DECK
EXPECTED TO REACH A TRENTON TO HILL CITY LINE BY 09Z THEN ROUGHLY
A BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND OAKLEY LINE BY 12Z. IN THE TRENTON TO
HILL CITY AND POINTS NORTHEAST AREAS WINDS ARE CALM AND RH NEAR
100 PERCENT. LATEST RUC/HRRR/NAM VISIBILITY FORECASTS ALL SHOWING
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR LESS.
NAM EXTRAPOLATION OF SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER RH PUSHES IT
FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER WITH DENSE FOG CONTINUING
ROUGHLY FROM TRENTON TO HOXIE AND POINTS EAST. HRRR SUGGESTS
FURTHER WEST TOWARD BENKELMAN TO NEAR GOODLAND AND RUSSELL
SPRINGS.
WILL AWAIT THE 03Z RUC/LATEST HRRR BEFORE ZONE UPDATE SENT BUT
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ABOVE THINKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
DECENT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS THE TRI STATE
REGION IS SEEING TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS WELL INTO THE 50S. THIS IS ONGOING DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING OVER THE AREA CREATING SUNNY CONDITIONS.
HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN
TIME FOR 925MB THERMAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE RIDGE AXIS COMBO...WHICH
MODELS BRING OVER THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MODEL RH IN LATEST
BUFKIT RUNS DOES HINT AT FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMATION BETWEEN 06Z-14Z
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES.
LGT/VAR WIND CONDITIONS WILL ALSO AID IN FOG FORMATION IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES...SO WILL KEEP PREVIOUS MENTION OF FOG IN THE
FORECAST.
GOING INTO TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PLAINS. THIS IS GOING TO SET UP YET ANOTHER NICE DAY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. MUCH OF THE WESTERN CWA WILL SEE WAA AGAIN ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHILE EASTERN ZONES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SURFACE
RIDGE THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE MAJOR FACTOR...SO HAVE TAPERED HIGHS
FOR TOMORROW FROM WEST TO EAST...MID 50S WEST DOWN TO THE MID 40S
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RETURN EAST AS WARM FRONT AND STALL OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. EAST OF THE
FRONT...LOW LEVELS WILL SATURATE OVERNIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 30S EAST OF THE BOUNDARY SO CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. NAM SOUNDINGS ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST OVER
A DEEPER LAYER COMPARED TO THE GFS SOUNDINGS...BUT EVEN IN THAT
SCENARIO ACCUMULATION WOULD ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
NONETHELESS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHT FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH EASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KANSAS SUCH AS
NORTON AND GRAHAM POSSIBLY STUCK IN THE CLOUDS ALL DAY AND WILL
TREND MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THOSE AREAS. CLOUDS WILL START TO
RETURN WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS A NARROW BAND ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE MOISTURE WHERE SURFACE WET BULBS DIP BELOW FREEZING AND
WILL CARRY A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THOSE AREAS. CLOUDS
WILL ERODE WEST TO EAST A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON FRIDAY WITH
SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT.
A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE WEEK
AND EJECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS TRACK
WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE HIGH
PLAINS AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
KGLD...VFR THROUGH 10Z WITH WINDS 5KTS OR LESS UNDER A LAYER OF
CIRRUS. FROM 11Z-17Z STRATUS/BR MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
BRINGING A PERIOD OF POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AND SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. FROM 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH NEAR 11KTS WITH BKN LAYER OF CIRRUS.
KMCK...VFR THROUGH 07Z WITH WINDS 5KTS OR LESS UNDER A LAYER OF
CIRRUS. FROM 08Z THROUGH 18Z IFR/VLIFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. AROUND 19Z
STRATUS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
ONLY A LAYER OF CIRRUS AND SOUTHEAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
5KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
400 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS
WESTERN US...WITH TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND ITS AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN NE/KS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER OUR CWA. STRATUS FOG HAS ERODED AND
CLEAR SKIES/DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS LED TO TEMPS WARMING INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS NW KANSAS AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPS PERSISTING. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT MIGHT BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER MONDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER CWA. GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND DEPENDING ON HOW LOW THE TD VALUES WILL
DROP WE COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
MET GUIDANCE WAS HINTING AT LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER ALL
OTHER 2M AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING THIS...AND WITH
DRY AIR ADVECTING FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST I DECIDED AGAINST FOG
MENTION. DESPITE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT MONDAY...THE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR MOST GUIDANCE TO HAVE A COOL BIAS WITH GOOD WARMING
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. CONSIDERING THESE BIASES I WOULD STILL
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY TO BE AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...WHICH IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2014
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY THE
TIME GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THOUGH...MODELS DO SHIFT THIS
RIDGE MORE EASTWARD AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST...INTO THE
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND THEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
NEXT SUNDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS DO
DIFFER ON TRACK AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THE CWA WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 925MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM +10C TO +15C THRU THE WEEK BEFORE THE TROUGH ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE AREA WILL SEE HIGHS 55-60F AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE NEAR ZERO AS A
RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A WEAK 700 MB
SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THAT
TRAVERSES THE REGION. MODERATE 1000-500MB RH VALUES WILL ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
AREA...LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY SO HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING OF JUST MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THIS ONLY. THE
ONLY CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH. LATEST GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM COMING OVER THE
AREA OFF THE ROCKIES...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM DROPPING
OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SYSTEM TO GRAB AMPLE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SOME PRECIP...WHILE THE GFS IS ALMOST DRY. WHILE THE BULK OF
THE ECMWF SCENARIO WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...STILL THINK SOME
OF THIS WILL IMPACT THE CWA SO HAVE KEPT IN UP TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. LOOKING FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW AT NIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND ANY LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE CWA AFFECTED
WITH ANY OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF A
COUPLE TENTHS RIGHT NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2014
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
AT TAF ISSUANCE FORECAST TO BACK TO THE WEST AROUND 08Z THEN
SOUTHWEST AROUND 19Z...SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS. BY 23Z LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED. FAIR WEATHER CU POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z MONDAY
OTHERWISE SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GOODLAND KS
212 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS
WESTERN US...WITH TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND ITS AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN NE/KS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER OUR CWA. STRATUS FOG HAS ERODED AND
CLEAR SKIES/DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS LED TO TEMPS WARMING INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS NW KANSAS AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPS PERSISTING. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT MIGHT BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER MONDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER CWA. GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND DEPENDING ON HOW LOW THE TD VALUES WILL
DROP WE COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
MET GUIDANCE WAS HINTING AT LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER ALL
OTHER 2M AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING THIS...AND WITH
DRY AIR ADVECTING FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST I DECIDED AGAINST FOG
MENTION. DESPITE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT MONDAY...THE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR MOST GUIDANCE TO HAVE A COOL BIAS WITH GOOD WARMING
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. CONSIDERING THESE BIASES I WOULD STILL
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY TO BE AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...WHICH IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2014
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY THE
TIME GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THOUGH...MODELS DO SHIFT THIS
RIDGE MORE EASTWARD AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST...INTO THE
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND THEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
NEXT SUNDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS DO
DIFFER ON TRACK AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THE CWA WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 925MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM +10C TO +15C THRU THE WEEK BEFORE THE TROUGH ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE AREA WILL SEE HIGHS 55-60F AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE NEAR ZERO AS A
RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A WEAK 700 MB
SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THAT
TRAVERSES THE REGION. MODERATE 1000-500MB RH VALUES WILL ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
AREA...LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY SO HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING OF JUST MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THIS ONLY. THE
ONLY CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH. LATEST GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM COMING OVER THE
AREA OFF THE ROCKIES...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM DROPPING
OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SYSTEM TO GRAB AMPLE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SOME PRECIP...WHILE THE GFS IS ALMOST DRY. WHILE THE BULK OF
THE ECMWF SCENARIO WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...STILL THINK SOME
OF THIS WILL IMPACT THE CWA SO HAVE KEPT IN UP TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. LOOKING FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW AT NIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND ANY LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE CWA AFFECTED
WITH ANY OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF A
COUPLE TENTHS RIGHT NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2014
MORNING FOG/STRATUS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF KMCK...AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. MET GUIDANCE SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF 3-5SM VIS
OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION WILL TEND TO ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE THE
AREA OF BOTH TAF SITES. OTHER GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS...SO I AM NOT GOING TO BUY INTO LOWER VIS AT THIS TIME.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20KT AT BOTH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12KT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1108 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 858 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE,
A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR AND ALONG THE
KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING THE THE LATEST RAP AND NAM WERE DOING
A DECENT JOB ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVED
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLIER THIS MORNING. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 800MB LEVEL. IN
ADDITION TO THIS AREA OF MOISTURE THE SURFACE TO 1000 TO 2000FT
AGL LAYER WILL ALSO BE SATURATED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARING TO BE NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
283. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DOES NOT APPEAR DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DRIZZLE, HOWEVER WEAK LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME SPRINKLES OR
EVEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY IN NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL THEREFORE RETAIN SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.
WIDESPREAD STATUS AND FOG WILL BE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME THE AREA FAVORABLE FOR THE LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL BE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILES AND BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
ALONG WITH MOST RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST
ACCORDINGLY.
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SKIES WILL CLEAR EAST OF DODGE CITY, HOWEVER BASED ON
THE NAM AND RAP TIMING OF THE CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
ALONG WITH THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 21Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WEST OF ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 83 WHERE
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER
EAST FAVORED THE COOLER MET.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE 0-1KM AGL LEVEL. BASED ON WESTERLY WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO WESTERN KANSAS WILL
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, WITH RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT
SYNOPTIC SCALE WAVES EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
INFLUENCE THE AREA MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING UPPER JET.
SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES MAINLY
INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL INSOLATION, WHILE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SOME FOG OR STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS NEAR THE COLORADO LINE, BUT THIS
WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED AS OPPOSED THE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG OF LAST
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING RAIN
SHOWERS WITH THE POSITIVELY TILTED WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW LOW
PROBABILITIES EXIST FOR CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AS WELL AS BETTER STRETCHING DEFORMATION WITH THIS
PATTERN.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MESOSCALE DETAIL FOLLOWS BEYOND
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH AGREE ON AN INCOMING SYNOPTIC
LOW APPROACHING THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. THE
DIFFERENCES EXIST IT A FAR MORE MOIST, STRATUS AND FOG TYPE PATTERN
OF THE EC AND MORE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER OR WESTERN KS WITH THE GFS
WHICH CAN ALSO MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
IFR CIGS WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF KDDC AND KHYS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOWLY ERODES WEST TO EAST.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDTIONS WILL RETURN/PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10KT EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 31 58 32 / 30 0 0 0
GCK 60 28 58 30 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 63 33 60 36 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 60 30 59 31 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 55 29 56 28 / 20 0 0 0
P28 57 33 58 33 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
902 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 858 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE,
A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR AND ALONG THE
KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING THE THE LATEST RAP AND NAM WERE DOING
A DECENT JOB ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVED
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLIER THIS MORNING. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 800MB LEVEL. IN
ADDITION TO THIS AREA OF MOISTURE THE SURFACE TO 1000 TO 2000FT
AGL LAYER WILL ALSO BE SATURATED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARING TO BE NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
283. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DOES NOT APPEAR DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DRIZZLE, HOWEVER WEAK LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME SPRINKLES OR
EVEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY IN NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL THEREFORE RETAIN SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.
WIDESPREAD STATUS AND FOG WILL BE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME THE AREA FAVORABLE FOR THE LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL BE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILES AND BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
ALONG WITH MOST RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST
ACCORDINGLY.
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SKIES WILL CLEAR EAST OF DODGE CITY, HOWEVER BASED ON
THE NAM AND RAP TIMING OF THE CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
ALONG WITH THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 21Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WEST OF ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 83 WHERE
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER
EAST FAVORED THE COOLER MET.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE 0-1KM AGL LEVEL. BASED ON WESTERLY WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO WESTERN KANSAS WILL
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, WITH RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT
SYNOPTIC SCALE WAVES EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
INFLUENCE THE AREA MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING UPPER JET.
SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES MAINLY
INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL INSOLATION, WHILE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SOME FOG OR STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS NEAR THE COLORADO LINE, BUT THIS
WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED AS OPPOSED THE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG OF LAST
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING RAIN
SHOWERS WITH THE POSITIVELY TILTED WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW LOW
PROBABILITIES EXIST FOR CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AS WELL AS BETTER STRETCHING DEFORMATION WITH THIS
PATTERN.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MESOSCALE DETAIL FOLLOWS BEYOND
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH AGREE ON AN INCOMING SYNOPTIC
LOW APPROACHING THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. THE
DIFFERENCES EXIST IT A FAR MORE MOIST, STRATUS AND FOG TYPE PATTERN
OF THE EC AND MORE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER OR WESTERN KS WITH THE GFS
WHICH CAN ALSO MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING,
PRODUCING MAINLY ELEVATED VIRGA DUE TO A DRY LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS WAS ALSO WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA AFFECTING ALL THREE LOCAL TERMINALS, WHICH WILL BE
THE CASE THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 31 58 32 / 30 0 0 0
GCK 60 28 58 30 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 63 33 60 36 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 60 30 59 31 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 55 29 56 28 / 20 0 0 0
P28 57 33 58 33 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
557 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING THE THE LATEST RAP AND NAM WERE DOING
A DECENT JOB ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVED
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLIER THIS MORNING. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 800MB LEVEL. IN
ADDITION TO THIS AREA OF MOISTURE THE SURFACE TO 1000 TO 2000FT
AGL LAYER WILL ALSO BE SATURATED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARING TO BE NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
283. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DOES NOT APPEAR DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DRIZZLE, HOWEVER WEAK LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME SPRINKLES OR
EVEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY IN NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL THEREFORE RETAIN SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.
WIDESPREAD STATUS AND FOG WILL BE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME THE AREA FAVORABLE FOR THE LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL BE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILES AND BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
ALONG WITH MOST RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST
ACCORDINGLY.
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SKIES WILL CLEAR EAST OF DODGE CITY, HOWEVER BASED ON
THE NAM AND RAP TIMING OF THE CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
ALONG WITH THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 21Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WEST OF ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 83 WHERE
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER
EAST FAVORED THE COOLER MET.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE 0-1KM AGL LEVEL. BASED ON WESTERLY WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO WESTERN KANSAS WILL
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, WITH RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT
SYNOPTIC SCALE WAVES EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
INFLUENCE THE AREA MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING UPPER JET.
SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES MAINLY
INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL INSOLATION, WHILE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SOME FOG OR STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS NEAR THE COLORADO LINE, BUT THIS
WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED AS OPPOSED THE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG OF LAST
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING RAIN
SHOWERS WITH THE POSITIVELY TILTED WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW LOW
PROBABILITIES EXIST FOR CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AS WELL AS BETTER STRETCHING DEFORMATION WITH THIS
PATTERN.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MESOSCALE DETAIL FOLLOWS BEYOND
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH AGREE ON AN INCOMING SYNOPTIC
LOW APPROACHING THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. THE
DIFFERENCES EXIST IT A FAR MORE MOIST, STRATUS AND FOG TYPE PATTERN
OF THE EC AND MORE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER OR WESTERN KS WITH THE GFS
WHICH CAN ALSO MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING,
PRODUCING MAINLY ELEVATED VIRGA DUE TO A DRY LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS WAS ALSO WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA AFFECTING ALL THREE LOCAL TERMINALS, WHICH WILL BE
THE CASE THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 31 58 32 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 60 28 58 30 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 63 33 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 60 30 59 31 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 55 29 56 28 / 10 0 0 0
P28 57 33 58 33 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
344 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2014
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS EXPANDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND
EXTEND NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
AREA HAS EXTENDED BACK INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...BUT HAS NOT BEEN AS
EXTENSIVE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE COVERAGE
FIRST THING THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE ALSO KEPT IT IN PLACE OVER THE
FAR EAST A LITTLE LONGER UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND
HELPS SWEEP OUT THE HIGH CLOUDS AND ALSO DRAGS THE SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH CLEARING EXPECTED EARLY OVER THE WEST WITH A DELAY OVER THE
EAST...WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THE WEST WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MIDDLE 50S OUT EAST WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS MOVING IN MY MID DAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS.
THE NEXT BEST POSSIBILITY OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 30S
ARE EXPECTED IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS STATES IN THE CONVERGENT AREA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. HAVE LEFT ANY FOG OUT FOR
NOW AS THEE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
NAM AND GFS AT THAT TIME THAT PUT A DAMPER ON CONFIDENCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2014
A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE HIGH PLAINS LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS THE MAIN EXTENDED FORECAST CONCERN AND THE
MAJORITY OF THIS DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS ON THE POSSIBILITIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHALL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. OVERALL...STILL ANTICIPATING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. UPON FURTHER REVIEW...IT APPEARS THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH AND
SUBSEQUENT LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST REGION.
FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN CONTINUING THE WARM FORECAST OVER THE WEST
AS DRIER AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE
FRONT RANGE. FURTHER EAST...MORNING FOG/STATUS AND HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT OF ATMOSPHERE MAY LIMIT DAYTIME WARMING...THUS LEADING TO
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
CONCERNING NEXT WEEKENDS SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING AT LEAST A STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN EJECTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. MANY ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM
STILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED INCLUDING STRENGTH...TIMING AND MOST
PROBLEMATIC...PATH THIS SYSTEM TRAVELS. FORECAST ENSEMBLES INDICATE
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SPREAD BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES A LARGE...OPEN TROUGH PASSING THROUGH WHILE
SOME OF THE MEMBERS AND THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATE A
STRONG...CLOSED LOW. THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES THE
OPEN THOUGH SOLUTION SHOWN BY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE ALSO SUGGESTS THE OPEN TROUGH SOLUTION BUT INDICATES A HIGH
VARIABILITY BETWEEN SOLUTIONS.
THE CLOSED LOW SOLUTION/POSSIBILITY IS EYE-OPENING IN THAT IT IS A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR OUR REGION TO RECEIVE A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM...POSSIBLY EVEN A BLIZZARD. THAT BEING
SAID...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH VARIABILITY BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS
AND MODEL RUNS TO REALLY BEGIN HIGHLIGHTING A POTENTIAL HIGH-IMPACT
STORM. FOR EXAMPLE...YESTERDAYS 00Z GFS RUN SUGGESTED A STRONG
SYSTEM GOING SOUTH OF THE REGION...ACROSS THE BIG BEND COUNTRY OF
TEXAS. THE 06Z RUN SHOWED A STRONG SYSTEM EJECTING OVER THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE AND HEADING TOWARDS RAPID CITY...WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TODAYS 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN BRINGS THE STRONG LOW
OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
AS OF RIGHT NOW...AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH AND WE HAVE A DECENT CHANCE AT SOME PRECIPITATION. HOW
MUCH...WHAT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND IF HIGH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AS OF RIGHT NOW DUE TO THE
DIFFERING POSSIBILITIES ON SYSTEM EVOLUTION. IT IS SOMETHING TO
WATCH FORECASTS UPDATES SO STAY TUNED!
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SAT DEC 6 2014
KGLD...SOUTH WIND AROUND 15KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH AND DECREASE TO 10KTS BY 08Z UNDER A VFR OVERCAST SKY. STRATUS/BR
MAY REACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AROUND 08Z WITH
IFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM 08Z-11Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
10KTS. AROUND 12Z WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS PUSHING THE
STRATUS SLOWLY EAST ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WINDS
THEN GO WEST UNDER 10KTS AROUND 15Z THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
12G20KT POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IN THE 18Z-22Z TIMEFRAME UNDER JUST
A FEW FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. BY 23Z WINDS DISSIPATE TO 5KTS OR SO BY
23Z THEN BACK TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AROUND 05Z.
KMCK...SOUTHEAST WIND NEAR 10KT AT TAF ISSUANCE UNDER A VFR
OVERCAST SKY. STRATUS/DRIZZLE/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY
VLIFR CONDITIONS WITH VIS 1/2SM IN FG/DZ REACH THE TERMINAL FROM
THE EAST AROUND 09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 17Z BEFORE WINDS VEER
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS IN THE 17Z-20Z TIMEFRAME. THIS
WILL SCOUR OUT THE STRATUS PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS FROM 17Z
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IN THESE SCENARIOS THAT HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS OCCASIONALLY DONT PUSH THE STRATUS FAR ENOUGH WEST...BY AT
LEAST ONE ROW OF COUNTIES. IF THIS VERIFIES STRATUS/BR (POSSIBLY
FG WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS) MAY TAKE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 3 HOURS TO
MOVE OUT OF BOTH TERMINALS. WITH A THICK OVERCAST SKY HARD TO
WATCH STRATUS PROGRESSION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH METARS AND HOURLY MODEL UPDATES FROM THE RUC AND HRRR.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
354 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
...UPDATED LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING THE THE LATEST RAP AND NAM WERE DOING
A DECENT JOB ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVED
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLIER THIS MORNING. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 800MB LEVEL. IN
ADDITION TO THIS AREA OF MOISTURE THE SURFACE TO 1000 TO 2000FT
AGL LAYER WILL ALSO BE SATURATED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARING TO BE NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
283. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DOES NOT APPEAR DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DRIZZLE, HOWEVER WEAK LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME SPRINKLES OR
EVEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY IN NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL THEREFORE RETAIN SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.
WIDESPREAD STATUS AND FOG WILL BE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME THE AREA FAVORABLE FOR THE LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL BE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILES AND BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
ALONG WITH MOST RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST
ACCORDINGLY.
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SKIES WILL CLEAR EAST OF DODGE CITY, HOWEVER BASED ON
THE NAM AND RAP TIMING OF THE CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
ALONG WITH THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 21Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WEST OF ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 83 WHERE
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER
EAST FAVORED THE COOLER MET.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE 0-1KM AGL LEVEL. BASED ON WESTERLY WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO WESTERN KANSAS WILL
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, WITH RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT
SYNOPTIC SCALE WAVES EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
INFLUENCE THE AREA MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING UPPER JET.
SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES MAINLY
INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL INSOLATION, WHILE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SOME FOG OR STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS NEAR THE COLORADO LINE, BUT THIS
WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED AS OPPOSED THE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG OF LAST
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING RAIN
SHOWERS WITH THE POSITIVELY TILTED WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW LOW
PROBABILITIES EXIST FOR CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AS WELL AS BETTER STRETCHING DEFORMATION WITH THIS
PATTERN.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MESOSCALE DETAIL FOLLOWS BEYOND
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH AGREE ON AN INCOMING SYNOPTIC
LOW APPROACHING THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. THE
DIFFERENCES EXIST IT A FAR MORE MOIST, STRATUS AND FOG TYPE PATTERN
OF THE EC AND MORE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER OR WESTERN KS WITH THE GFS
WHICH CAN ALSO MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT DDC AND HYS OVERNIGHT AS A
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT GCK ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE LOW IFR/LIFR CATEGORY BY 08Z BASED
ON THE LATEST HRRR, RAP AND NAM. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY,
LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AT 05Z, WILL INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST THE VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TIMING BUT GIVEN
THE LATEST HRRR, RAP AND NAM WILL FAVOR IFR/MVFR AT GCK AND HYS
BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z SUNDAY. FOR DDC WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 31 58 32 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 60 28 58 30 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 63 33 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 60 30 59 31 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 55 29 56 28 / 10 0 0 0
P28 57 33 58 33 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-063>066-076>081-086>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
230 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST SAT DEC 6 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH-RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS US WITH RIDGE CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SW
FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO WESTERN KS
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONS EASTWARD STATIONARY
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH SHIFT NORTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHEAST MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA.
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE/UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER WOULD LIKELY PREVENT
ANY ELEVATED PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. NAM/RAP SHOW WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN PROXIMITY
OF BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN SHALLOW
SATURATED LAYER TO ALLOW FOR DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT. THIS COULD BE
MORE OF A STRATUS/DRIZZLE EVENT...THOUGH CONSIDERING THE GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN HAVING AN IMPACT ON MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WITH THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS THOUGH THE NIGHT
(ALONG WITH TD VALUES INCREASING TO MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
EAST)...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED. NOT ONLY COULD THIS
LIMIT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT THIS MAKES FREEZING
FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT HOLDING
OFF ON HIGHLIGHTS SEEMS THE BEST COURSE.
WITH SHIFT BACK TO SW FLOW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO
THE ROCKIES THERE SHOULD BE RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
SUNDAY.CLEARING SKIES AND WAA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO WARM TO AROUND 60F...THOUGH STRATUS MAY HOLD ON A LITTLE
LONGER IN OUR EASTERN CWA LIMITING DAYTIME MIXING AND KEEPING
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2014
A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE HIGH PLAINS LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS THE MAIN EXTENDED FORECAST CONCERN AND THE
MAJORITY OF THIS DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS ON THE POSSIBILITIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHALL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. OVERALL...STILL ANTICIPATING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. UPON FURTHER REVIEW...IT APPEARS THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH AND
SUBSEQUENT LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST REGION.
FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN CONTINUING THE WARM FORECAST OVER THE WEST
AS DRIER AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE
FRONT RANGE. FURTHER EAST...MORNING FOG/STATUS AND HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT OF ATMOSPHERE MAY LIMIT DAYTIME WARMING...THUS LEADING TO
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
CONCERNING NEXT WEEKENDS SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING AT LEAST A STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN EJECTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. MANY ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM
STILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED INCLUDING STRENGTH...TIMING AND MOST
PROBLEMATIC...PATH THIS SYSTEM TRAVELS. FORECAST ENSEMBLES INDICATE
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SPREAD BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES A LARGE...OPEN TROUGH PASSING THROUGH WHILE
SOME OF THE MEMBERS AND THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATE A
STRONG...CLOSED LOW. THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES THE
OPEN THOUGH SOLUTION SHOWN BY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE ALSO SUGGESTS THE OPEN TROUGH SOLUTION BUT INDICATES A HIGH
VARIABILITY BETWEEN SOLUTIONS.
THE CLOSED LOW SOLUTION/POSSIBILITY IS EYE-OPENING IN THAT IT IS A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR OUR REGION TO RECEIVE A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM...POSSIBLY EVEN A BLIZZARD. THAT BEING
SAID...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH VARIABILITY BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS
AND MODEL RUNS TO REALLY BEGIN HIGHLIGHTING A POTENTIAL HIGH-IMPACT
STORM. FOR EXAMPLE...YESTERDAYS 00Z GFS RUN SUGGESTED A STRONG
SYSTEM GOING SOUTH OF THE REGION...ACROSS THE BIG BEND COUNTRY OF
TEXAS. THE 06Z RUN SHOWED A STRONG SYSTEM EJECTING OVER THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE AND HEADING TOWARDS RAPID CITY...WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TODAYS 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN BRINGS THE STRONG LOW
OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
AS OF RIGHT NOW...AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH AND WE HAVE A DECENT CHANCE AT SOME PRECIPITATION. HOW
MUCH...WHAT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND IF HIGH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AS OF RIGHT NOW DUE TO THE
DIFFERING POSSIBILITIES ON SYSTEM EVOLUTION. IT IS SOMETHING TO
WATCH FORECASTS UPDATES SO STAY TUNED!
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SAT DEC 6 2014
KGLD...SOUTH WIND AROUND 15KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH AND DECREASE TO 10KTS BY 08Z UNDER A VFR OVERCAST SKY. STRATUS/BR
MAY REACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AROUND 08Z WITH
IFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM 08Z-11Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
10KTS. AROUND 12Z WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS PUSHING THE
STRATUS SLOWLY EAST ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WINDS
THEN GO WEST UNDER 10KTS AROUND 15Z THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
12G20KT POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IN THE 18Z-22Z TIMEFRAME UNDER JUST
A FEW FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. BY 23Z WINDS DISSIPATE TO 5KTS OR SO BY
23Z THEN BACK TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AROUND 05Z.
KMCK...SOUTHEAST WIND NEAR 10KT AT TAF ISSUANCE UNDER A VFR
OVERCAST SKY. STRATUS/DRIZZLE/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY
VLIFR CONDITIONS WITH VIS 1/2SM IN FG/DZ REACH THE TERMINAL FROM
THE EAST AROUND 09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 17Z BEFORE WINDS VEER
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS IN THE 17Z-20Z TIMEFRAME. THIS
WILL SCOUR OUT THE STRATUS PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS FROM 17Z
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IN THESE SCENARIOS THAT HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS OCCASIONALLY DONT PUSH THE STRATUS FAR ENOUGH WEST...BY AT
LEAST ONE ROW OF COUNTIES. IF THIS VERIFIES STRATUS/BR (POSSIBLY
FG WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS) MAY TAKE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 3 HOURS TO
MOVE OUT OF BOTH TERMINALS. WITH A THICK OVERCAST SKY HARD TO
WATCH STRATUS PROGRESSION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH METARS AND HOURLY MODEL UPDATES FROM THE RUC AND HRRR.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
204 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING THE THE LATEST RAP AND NAM WERE DOING
A DECENT JOB ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVED
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLIER THIS MORNING. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 800MB LEVEL. IN
ADDITION TO THIS AREA OF MOISTURE THE SURFACE TO 1000 TO 2000FT
AGL LAYER WILL ALSO BE SATURATED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARING TO BE NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
283. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DOES NOT APPEAR DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DRIZZLE, HOWEVER WEAK LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME SPRINKLES OR
EVEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY IN NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL THEREFORE RETAIN SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.
WIDESPREAD STATUS AND FOG WILL BE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME THE AREA FAVORABLE FOR THE LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL BE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILES AND BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
ALONG WITH MOST RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST
ACCORDINGLY.
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SKIES WILL CLEAR EAST OF DODGE CITY, HOWEVER BASED ON
THE NAM AND RAP TIMING OF THE CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
ALONG WITH THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 21Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WEST OF ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 83 WHERE
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER
EAST FAVORED THE COOLER MET.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE 0-1KM AGL LEVEL. BASED ON WESTERLY WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO WESTERN KANSAS WILL
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
A MILD PERIOD IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
STORM SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. BY NEXT WEEKEND. GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AND STRONGER THAN THE EUROPEAN
MODEL WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BE A WEATHER MAKER INTO THE
PLAINS AROUND THE 15TH AND 16TH OF DECEMBER.
FOR MONDAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. FOR TUESDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A LEE TROUGH, WITH HIGHS AGAIN FROM 55 TO 60. ON
WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 40S. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAY BREAK OUT IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, MAINLY EAST OF DODGE
CITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE LOW TO MID 30S NEAR
MEDICINE LODGE. LOWS THEN WARM BACK INTO THE MID 30S INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE PERIOD OF THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
WARMING MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. HIGHS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT DDC AND HYS OVERNIGHT AS A
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT GCK ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE LOW IFR/LIFR CATEGORY BY 08Z BASED
ON THE LATEST HRRR, RAP AND NAM. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY,
LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AT 05Z, WILL INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST THE VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TIMING BUT GIVEN
THE LATEST HRRR, RAP AND NAM WILL FAVOR IFR/MVFR AT GCK AND HYS
BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z SUNDAY. FOR DDC WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 31 58 32 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 60 28 58 30 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 63 33 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 60 30 59 31 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 55 29 56 28 / 10 0 0 0
P28 57 33 58 33 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-063>066-076>081-086>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1122 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
AT 00Z SUNDAY A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WITH A +90KNOT 250MB JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE BASED OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AT 00Z
SUNDAY AND A SURFACE HIGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO NORTH TEXAS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT
OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOITNS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST DOWN INTO KANSAS WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT BRINGING ABOUT A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ENOUGH
LIFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES
LATE TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE, SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FURTHER
EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AS A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS DRAWING INCREASED MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION.
AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 20S(F) AND LOWER 30S(F),
LOOK FOR LOWS ONLY DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) TONIGHT. A
DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ENHANCE WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING UP NEAR 8C TO 10C ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S(F) IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY OCCUR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
A MILD PERIOD IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
STORM SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. BY NEXT WEEKEND. GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AND STRONGER THAN THE EUROPEAN
MODEL WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BE A WEATHER MAKER INTO THE
PLAINS AROUND THE 15TH AND 16TH OF DECEMBER.
FOR MONDAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. FOR TUESDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A LEE TROUGH, WITH HIGHS AGAIN FROM 55 TO 60. ON
WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 40S. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAY BREAK OUT IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, MAINLY EAST OF DODGE
CITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE LOW TO MID 30S NEAR
MEDICINE LODGE. LOWS THEN WARM BACK INTO THE MID 30S INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE PERIOD OF THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
WARMING MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. HIGHS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT DDC AND HYS OVERNIGHT AS A
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT GCK ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE LOW IFR/LIFR CATEGORY BY 08Z BASED
ON THE LATEST HRRR, RAP AND NAM. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY,
LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AT 05Z, WILL INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST THE VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TIMING BUT GIVEN
THE LATEST HRRR, RAP AND NAM WILL FAVOR IFR/MVFR AT GCK AND HYS
BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z SUNDAY. FOR DDC WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 36 58 30 58 / 10 20 0 0
GCK 34 60 27 58 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 37 63 33 60 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 37 60 29 59 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 30 55 29 56 / 10 20 0 0
P28 36 57 33 58 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-
063>066-076>081-086>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1000 PM MST SAT DEC 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST SAT DEC 6 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH-RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS US WITH RIDGE CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SW
FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO WESTERN KS
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONS EASTWARD STATIONARY
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH SHIFT NORTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHEAST MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA.
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE/UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER WOULD LIKELY PREVENT
ANY ELEVATED PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. NAM/RAP SHOW WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN PROXIMITY
OF BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN SHALLOW
SATURATED LAYER TO ALLOW FOR DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT. THIS COULD BE
MORE OF A STRATUS/DRIZZLE EVENT...THOUGH CONSIDERING THE GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN HAVING AN IMPACT ON MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WITH THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS THOUGH THE NIGHT
(ALONG WITH TD VALUES INCREASING TO MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
EAST)...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED. NOT ONLY COULD THIS
LIMIT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT THIS MAKES FREEZING
FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT HOLDING
OFF ON HIGHLIGHTS SEEMS THE BEST COURSE.
WITH SHIFT BACK TO SW FLOW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO
THE ROCKIES THERE SHOULD BE RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
SUNDAY.CLEARING SKIES AND WAA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO WARM TO AROUND 60F...THOUGH STRATUS MAY HOLD ON A LITTLE
LONGER IN OUR EASTERN CWA LIMITING DAYTIME MIXING AND KEEPING
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST SAT DEC 6 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A RIDGE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TUESDAY.
SUBSIDENCE AND OR A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALONG WITH A LACK OF
LAYER MEAN RH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE DRY CONDITIONS. POPS
WILL BE NIL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 50S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS ALSO DRY. A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE
PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY
AND SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD WARM TO
THE UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S IN THE WESTERN FA. MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SAT DEC 6 2014
KGLD...SOUTH WIND AROUND 15KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH AND DECREASE TO 10KTS BY 08Z UNDER A VFR OVERCAST SKY. STRATUS/BR
MAY REACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AROUND 08Z WITH
IFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM 08Z-11Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
10KTS. AROUND 12Z WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS PUSHING THE
STRATUS SLOWLY EAST ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WINDS
THEN GO WEST UNDER 10KTS AROUND 15Z THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
12G20KT POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IN THE 18Z-22Z TIMEFRAME UNDER JUST
A FEW FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. BY 23Z WINDS DISSIPATE TO 5KTS OR SO BY
23Z THEN BACK TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AROUND 05Z.
KMCK...SOUTHEAST WIND NEAR 10KT AT TAF ISSUANCE UNDER A VFR
OVERCAST SKY. STRATUS/DRIZZLE/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY
VLIFR CONDITIONS WITH VIS 1/2SM IN FG/DZ REACH THE TERMINAL FROM
THE EAST AROUND 09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 17Z BEFORE WINDS VEER
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS IN THE 17Z-20Z TIMEFRAME. THIS
WILL SCOUR OUT THE STRATUS PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS FROM 17Z
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IN THESE SCENARIOS THAT HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS OCCASIONALLY DONT PUSH THE STRATUS FAR ENOUGH WEST...BY AT
LEAST ONE ROW OF COUNTIES. IF THIS VERIFIES STRATUS/BR (POSSIBLY
FG WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS) MAY TAKE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 3 HOURS TO
MOVE OUT OF BOTH TERMINALS. WITH A THICK OVERCAST SKY HARD TO
WATCH STRATUS PROGRESSION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH METARS AND HOURLY MODEL UPDATES FROM THE RUC AND HRRR.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1058 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
THE SPOTTY RADAR RETURNS AND ANY SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THEM HAVE
LIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. BETTER RETURNS ARE OCCURRING
UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN INDIANA CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES
FROM THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AWAITING THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS HAVE TAKEN
ADVANTAGE OF SOME CLOUD THINNING CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE BREATHITT COUNTY MESONET REPORTING 33 DEGREES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT SIMILAR SPOTS LIKELY DIPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S HOWEVER...AS THE THICKER BLANKET OF LOWER CLOUDS MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST...EXPECT THESE READINGS TO WARM UP. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. MOST OF THE
RADAR RETURNS HAVE ONLY RESULTED IN SOME SPOTTY SPRINKLES THUS FAR
AND THE LATEST HRRR ONLY SUPPORTS THIS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...HAVE DIALED BACK
THE POPS A BIT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE
TO MENTION A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER A FEW
SPOTS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S. BLACK MOUNTAIN AND THE PIKE
COUNTY MESONET HAVE BEEN HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES AT THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
REMAIN STEADY IF NOT FALL A BIT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN WHEN THE
PRECIP THREATENS. AS SUCH...WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR
THESE LOCATIONS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AS READINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE DAY. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
A DEEPENING TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE SE ACROSS
EASTERN KY BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING LAKE SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT AND
WARM FRONT ARE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW...WITH THE WARM
FRONT HAVING JUST MOVED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA...AND THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE KY BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z TONIGHT /MAY LINGER
A BIT LONGER IN THE FAR SE/.
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY SRLY AS OF THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN
KY...WITH TEMP READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 AT PRESENT TIME.
/THE CAVEAT TO THAT IS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHICH IS CURRENTLY ONLY
IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THICK HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF RADAR RETURNS
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND TN...TREKKING EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE JKL CWA. WHILE RETURNS HAVE LESSENED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HAS KEPT ANY OF THE RAIN FROM REACHING THE
GROUND ACROSS KY. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA BY 0Z AS THIS AREA MOVES INTO OUR REGION...JUST IN
CASE SOME LIGHT SHOWER IS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BEGIN FILLING INTO EASTERN KY AFTER 6Z
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WITH
ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH DURING
THIS EVENT. AS SUCH...ONLY WARRANTED CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OPPOSED TO A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE PRECIP TYPE DURING THIS EVENT.
UNFORTUNATELY IT IS NOT A CUT AND DRY SITUATION. A FEW DEGREES
DIFFERENCE IN THE FIRST 1000 FEET COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN SNOW
OR RAIN. AS OF NOW...MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO 8K FT AND BELOW...WITH
NEARLY ALL OF THAT MOISTURE BELOW -10C HAVING NO INFLUENCE BY THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WOULD FAVOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOWFLAKE FORMATION. HOWEVER...TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF
THE MOIST LAYER...EXCEPT RIGHT AT THE LOWEST 1000 FT. SO IF THERE IS
ANY ICE/SNOW PELLETS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAY MELT ON THE WAY
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. OR...AS TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND ON THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN TOMORROW DIP DOWN SLIGHTLY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
SNOW/ICE PELLETS MAY MELT AND SOME MAY NOT...MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR
A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND ICE. TRIED TO STAY MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAINLY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT
IN PLACES ABOVE 1300 FEET THAT WILL EXPERIENCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
BY TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILE ALL OF THE ABOVE HOLDS TRUE...COLDER NE
AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN PULLING INTO THE REGION.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DROP TEMPS CLOSER TO THAT FREEZING MARK AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW...ALLOWING MORE SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN...OR IN
A FEW PLACES...FALL AS SNOW ONLY. STILL...GIVEN THE WET AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER SURFACE TEMPS...THE ONLY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AROUND BLACK MOUNTAIN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY JUST BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS WILL WORK TO MAKE THE LAYER OF MOISTURE EVEN
SHALLOWER...WHILE A IMPRESSIVELY STRONG INVERSION TAKES HOLD IN THE
MID LEVELS. AS SUCH...IT IS STILL BORDERLINE AND SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AS
TO IF THE PRECIP THAT FALLS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW...OR MAYBE A WINTRY DRIZZLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER
LOW WILL WORK ACROSS EASTERN KY ON WED. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
DEPARTS...GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THU INTO SAT
ACROSS ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND EASTERN KY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY DEPART LATE IN THE PERIOD...EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
MODEL AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IS ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM WED INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. AS FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD...MODELS HOLD ONTO SOME SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE AND THE INVERSION HEIGHT IS NOT MUCH ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL
AS WELL. MODELS ALSO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES AND ICE MAY NOT BE
PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEPER
FROM 12Z TO 18Z...AND POSSIBLY LONGER ON WED. THE GFS OVERALL SHOWS
A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ICE WITH MORE SATURATION IN THE -8C TO -10C
LEVELS OR HIGHER. THE BULK OF WHAT SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD NOT BE
DENDRITES...BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING ON WED AND COULD RECEIVE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. AS WITH MOST NW FLOW EVENTS...THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHEN THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL DEPART. AT THIS TIME...WE
HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH THE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE DEPARTURE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES INTO WED EVENING.
HOWEVER...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ENSUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN THE START OF
THE PERIOD...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH 06Z...AND THEN A PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO FILL IN FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO WILL ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
PEAKING IN THE 12 TO 18Z TIME FRAME. CEILINGS MAY THEN BUMP UP A BIT
INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE
MORE SUSTAINED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY EARLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
730 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. MOST OF THE
RADAR RETURNS HAVE ONLY RESULTED IN SOME SPOTTY SPRINKLES THUS FAR
AND THE LATEST HRRR ONLY SUPPORTS THIS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...HAVE DIALED BACK
THE POPS A BIT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE
TO MENTION A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER A FEW
SPOTS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S. BLACK MOUNTAIN AND THE PIKE
COUNTY MESONET HAVE BEEN HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES AT THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
REMAIN STEADY IF NOT FALL A BIT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN WHEN THE
PRECIP THREATENS. AS SUCH...WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR
THESE LOCATIONS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AS READINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE DAY. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
A DEEPENING TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE SE ACROSS
EASTERN KY BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING LAKE SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT AND
WARM FRONT ARE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW...WITH THE WARM
FRONT HAVING JUST MOVED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA...AND THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE KY BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z TONIGHT /MAY LINGER
A BIT LONGER IN THE FAR SE/.
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY SRLY AS OF THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN
KY...WITH TEMP READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 AT PRESENT TIME.
/THE CAVEAT TO THAT IS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHICH IS CURRENTLY ONLY
IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THICK HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF RADAR RETURNS
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND TN...TREKKING EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE JKL CWA. WHILE RETURNS HAVE LESSENED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HAS KEPT ANY OF THE RAIN FROM REACHING THE
GROUND ACROSS KY. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA BY 0Z AS THIS AREA MOVES INTO OUR REGION...JUST IN
CASE SOME LIGHT SHOWER IS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BEGIN FILLING INTO EASTERN KY AFTER 6Z
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WITH
ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH DURING
THIS EVENT. AS SUCH...ONLY WARRANTED CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OPPOSED TO A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE PRECIP TYPE DURING THIS EVENT.
UNFORTUNATELY IT IS NOT A CUT AND DRY SITUATION. A FEW DEGREES
DIFFERENCE IN THE FIRST 1000 FEET COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN SNOW
OR RAIN. AS OF NOW...MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO 8K FT AND BELOW...WITH
NEARLY ALL OF THAT MOISTURE BELOW -10C HAVING NO INFLUENCE BY THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WOULD FAVOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOWFLAKE FORMATION. HOWEVER...TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF
THE MOIST LAYER...EXCEPT RIGHT AT THE LOWEST 1000 FT. SO IF THERE IS
ANY ICE/SNOW PELLETS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAY MELT ON THE WAY
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. OR...AS TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND ON THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN TOMORROW DIP DOWN SLIGHTLY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
SNOW/ICE PELLETS MAY MELT AND SOME MAY NOT...MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR
A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND ICE. TRIED TO STAY MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAINLY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT
IN PLACES ABOVE 1300 FEET THAT WILL EXPERIENCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
BY TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILE ALL OF THE ABOVE HOLDS TRUE...COLDER NE
AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN PULLING INTO THE REGION.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DROP TEMPS CLOSER TO THAT FREEZING MARK AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW...ALLOWING MORE SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN...OR IN
A FEW PLACES...FALL AS SNOW ONLY. STILL...GIVEN THE WET AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER SURFACE TEMPS...THE ONLY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AROUND BLACK MOUNTAIN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY JUST BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS WILL WORK TO MAKE THE LAYER OF MOISTURE EVEN
SHALLOWER...WHILE A IMPRESSIVELY STRONG INVERSION TAKES HOLD IN THE
MID LEVELS. AS SUCH...IT IS STILL BORDERLINE AND SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AS
TO IF THE PRECIP THAT FALLS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW...OR MAYBE A WINTRY DRIZZLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER
LOW WILL WORK ACROSS EASTERN KY ON WED. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
DEPARTS...GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THU INTO SAT
ACROSS ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND EASTERN KY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY DEPART LATE IN THE PERIOD...EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
MODEL AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IS ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM WED INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. AS FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD...MODELS HOLD ONTO SOME SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE AND THE INVERSION HEIGHT IS NOT MUCH ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL
AS WELL. MODELS ALSO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES AND ICE MAY NOT BE
PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEPER
FROM 12Z TO 18Z...AND POSSIBLY LONGER ON WED. THE GFS OVERALL SHOWS
A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ICE WITH MORE SATURATION IN THE -8C TO -10C
LEVELS OR HIGHER. THE BULK OF WHAT SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD NOT BE
DENDRITES...BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING ON WED AND COULD RECEIVE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. AS WITH MOST NW FLOW EVENTS...THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHEN THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL DEPART. AT THIS TIME...WE
HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH THE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE DEPARTURE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES INTO WED EVENING.
HOWEVER...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ENSUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN THE START OF
THE PERIOD...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH 06Z...AND THEN A PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO FILL IN FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO WILL ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
PEAKING IN THE 12 TO 18Z TIME FRAME. CEILINGS MAY THEN BUMP UP A BIT
INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE
MORE SUSTAINED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY EARLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1139 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
.AVIATION...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AS UPSTREAM MVFR CIGS...AT OR BLO 2000FT
AND THE RUC FIELDS SUPPORT LITTLE CHANGE INTO SUNDAY. LOW SUN
ANGLES AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR SLOW IMPROVEMENT BUT MVFR STRATOCU
CIGS SHOULD FINALLY DISPERSE BY MID-DAY SUNDAY WITH A CIRRUS DECK
ABOVE AND A CONTINUED NELY FLOW.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014/
UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE NEEDED.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014/
AVIATION...A CONCERN HAD BEEN THAT EXTENSIVE MOISTURE REMAINS IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND THAT CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE.
THAT SAID, LOOKS LIKE A REINFORCING PUSH HAS SET UP ENOUGH COLD
AND DRY ADVECTION TO PROVIDE OVERALL IMPROVEMENT. IN THE NEAR
TERM, MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HANG IN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AT BOTH BPT
AND LCH. MVFR CIGS AT AEX SHOULD BECOME VFR LATER THIS EVENING AS
SKIES SCATTER OUT.
CURRENT VFR CONDTIONS AT THE ACADIANA AIRPORTS SHOW IMPROVEMENT
PER LATEST TIME-HEIGHT VERTICAL PROFILES. THAT SAID THERE IS AN
EXTENSIVE MVFR CIG FIELD UPSTREAM TO THE NORTH AND INBOUND PVA AT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MOISTURE COULD BE JUST BELOW THE MODEL BOUNDARY.
LOOKS LIKE PRUDENCE DICTATES PERSISTENCE ON THE MVFR CIGS FOR LFT
AND ARA AT LEAST UNTIL THE PVA WANES AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...LITTLE RAIN FELL ACROSS OUR LAND AREA...BUT THERE
IS A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH...WORKING ITS WAY FURTHER OFFSHORE. ALSO...DENSE
FOG HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT IT IS
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATED BY
THIS EVENING.
NO RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AND TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION...STARTING TO
OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TO OUR EAST BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 50 64 45 65 43 / 10 10 10 0 0
KBPT 51 65 45 65 44 / 10 10 10 0 0
KAEX 44 60 41 63 40 / 10 0 10 0 0
KLFT 49 63 44 65 43 / 10 10 10 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
835 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
THE EARLIER UPDATE NUDGED THE FORECAST TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COLDER
PRECIPITATION TYPE SOLUTION BY ADDING A GREATER COMPONENT OF SNOW
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THIS IS BASED ON RADAR INDICATIONS OF HIGHER
PRECIPITATION RATES CAPABLE OF GREATER WET BULB COOLING...BUT THE
OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE STILL SUPPORTS MOSTLY SNOW IN THE TRI
CITIES REGION WITH JUST A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE DETROIT AREA
TO THE OHIO BORDER. PRECIPITATION RATES ARE BEING ENHANCED BY A
FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE
ACTING ON THE LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WHICH IS MATURING
INTO A WELL DEFINED TROWAL. STRONG VERTICAL MOTION RESPONSE...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO CONTINUE...IS INDICATED BY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES CENTERED AROUND 700 MB IN THE NEW 00Z DTX SOUNDING AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH SE MICHIGAN DURING THE REST OF
THE EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE WILL BRING A
QUICK END TO THE SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN
WILL BE FAST ENOUGH TO HOLD THE LINE ON MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE AREA. THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB REGION DOES HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO LINGER...AND MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON
ACCUMULATION...AS MOISTURE REMAINS DEEPER WITHIN THE DEFORMATION
AXIS ON THE NW FLANK OF THE WAVE AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO DRIZZLE...OR LACK
THEREOF...WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE LATE EVENING. DRIZZLE AND
FOG WILL MOVE OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN AND PERSIST UNTIL
NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 653 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
//DISCUSSION...
FORECAST EXPECTATIONS REMAIN ON TARGET AS THE MAIN AREA PRECIP MOVES
THROUGH THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING. SURFACE TEMPS NEAR
40 WILL HELP WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT ONSET...BUT JUST BRIEFLY AT MBS
BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW...AND A SLIGHTLY LONGER MIX AT FNT BEFORE
CHANGING OVER THERE AS WELL. EXPECT A MIX AS FAR SOUTH AS PTK BEFORE
THE BAND MOVES TO THE EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS IS A SLIGHTLY
COLDER PRECIP TYPE FORECAST BASED ON THE COOLING EFFECT OF HIGHER
PRECIPITATION RATE INDICATED ON RADAR OVER SW LOWER AT PRESS TIME.
EXPECT A QUICK DROP TO IFR/LIFR CEILING AT MOST LOCATIONS BY MID
EVENING WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION AREA AND THEN LASTING THROUGH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT/OCCLUDED FRONT. A SUBSTANTIAL
COMPONENT OF FOG AND DRIZZLE IS INDICATED OVER WISCONSIN...
ILLINOIS...AND INDIANA BY A COMBINATION OF SURFACE OBS AND RADAR
COMPOSITE WITHIN AND SHORTLY TRAILING THE FRONT. THIS WILL
REINFORCE LIFR CEILING UNTIL THE WIND INCREASES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN LEAD TO GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WHERE CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW... RAIN DURING THE EVENING COULD MIX BRIEFLY WITH WET
SNOW...BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST AND WITH NO
ACCUMULATION.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 1/2 SM AND/OR CIGS
BELOW 200 FT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED COMPACT MIDLEVEL WAVE
OVER THE MN/IA BORDER SPINNING SEWD. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
PRESENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE OVER IN AND MI. MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WAS SUPPORTING A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED SWATH OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE PRECIP OVER WESTERN MI AND NORTHERN IN...MOVING NEWD.
THERE WAS A SHARP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AS EVIDENCED
BY QUICKLY LOWERING CEILINGS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. NWP IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE AREA OF FGEN AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN AROUND 23-05Z /PERHAPS
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT/ WITH ANY ONE AREA SEEING AROUND 3-4 HOURS OF
PRECIP. QPF SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AROUND .10-.15 INCHES.
PRECIP TYPE IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOW/MID
20S OVER SE MI. RAP HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH ASSOCIATED
WETBULB TEMPS 32-35F. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP A WHOLE LOT IN
ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP WITH CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD EDGE UPWARD INTO THE UPPER 20S. WETBULB EFFECTS ONCE THE
PRECIP STARTS SHOULD DROP TEMPS INTO THE 33-37 DEGREE RANGE. WHILE
MUCH OF THE REGION COULD EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW /WITH
SNOW MORE LIKELY IN THE AREAS OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER PRECIP/...HAVE
GONE WITH PREDOMINANTLY RAIN FOR METRO DETROIT AND SOUTH...MOSTLY
SNOW FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB...AND A MIX
INBETWEEN. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE SNOW TO
MAINLY REMAIN AOA FREEZING WITH LOW SNOW RATIOS SO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN...WITH PERHAPS UP TO HALF AN INCH IN SPOTS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69.
ONCE THE UPPER MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE REGION CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND EXPECT THAT
WILL BE THE CASE OVER OUR AREA AS WELL. PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS GET CLOSER TO FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DRIFTING OFF TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS IT BECOMES
A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. SE MI WILL BE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL AND BROAD LIFT FROM THE TROUGH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD
BEFORE LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS TRIES TO
FORCE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. A BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH
IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN MI. THIS PRESENTS ONE OF THE MAIN
CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM AS THAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A MILD
SUNNY WEEKEND OR A CLOUDY WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.
WE START OFF TUESDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER HEAD WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OVERCAST SKIES AND WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND
LIFT WITH A SATURATED COLUMN UP TO 8KFT WILL PRODUCE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FORCING PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. ONE
QUESTION REMAINS TO BE WHAT WILL THE PTYPE BE ON TUESDAY? THE TREND
WILL BE FOR THE COLUMN TO COOL AS THE -26C 500MB COLD POOL SLIDE
OVER THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO WITH 850MB TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NEGATIVE. BUT THE SATURATION ONLY CLIMBS TO
AROUND 750MB OR SO WHICH MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH FOR ALL ICE
CRYSTALS WITH TEMPS NEARING -9C. SO KEPT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY POSSIBLY SWITCHING OVER TO ALL
SNOW CLOSER TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING UP TOWARD
950MB...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
PREVENT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS SFC TEMPS REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S.
THE NATURE OF THE PRECIP FORCING CHANGES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED EAST LEAVING A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS COLDER NORTHERLY
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER
THE THUMB BUT MODELS DO NO INDICATE ANY STRONG CONVERGENT REGIONS
OVER THE LAKE AND DELTA T FROM THE SFC TO 850MB IS RATHER WEAK
AROUND 10C. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHER POP...LOWER QPF FORECAST FOR
THE THUMB UNTIL WE SEE MORE DEFINITIVE SIGNATURES TO LOWER THE POPS
OR START THINKING IN TERMS OF POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES
OVER LAND WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AS THE
BACKSIDE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE...AND DRY WEATHER...LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE A
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TRYING TO CREEP IN ON THURSDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE AT
THIS TIME IS LOW AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA /ST CLAIR SANILAC AND
EASTERN HURON COUNTIES/. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE ALL RAIN...HOWEVER...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF SOME SNOW MIXES IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO DROP. FOR NOW HAVE JUST LEFT THE PRECIPITATION AS ALL RAIN
BUT SNOW MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED LATER AS WE GET A BETTER SAMPLING OF
HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT.
MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO
SETTLE ALLOWING US TO CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER SAGINAW
BAY A FEW HOURS EARLY BUT FLOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION OF THE NEARSHORE SMALL CRAFTS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY VEERING WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE STALLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WILL HELP EXCITE THE WIND FIELD ONCE AGAIN. A MARGINAL
GALE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN AS WINDS LOOK
TO GUST NEAR 35 KNOTS WITH THIS SETUP. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY
TRY TO HEAD BACK WEST TOWARD THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK WHICH WOULD
KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
LHZ441>443-462>464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...DT
LONG TERM....DRK/RK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
716 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
LOW PRESSURE SLIDING OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AS OF 23Z. COLD AIR IN
WAKE OF THE LOW SLOW TO ARRIVE. DEEP MOISTURE TIED INTO THE LOW HAS
FADED QUICKLY AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS SHALLOW IN DEPTH AND TEMPS
WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER ARE ONLY AS COOL AS -4C TO -6C OVER WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND WESTERN CWA. VSBY AT IWD AND CMX HAS BEEN BLO 5SM
SINCE SUNSET. REPORTS FM SOCIAL MEDIA INDICATE DRIZZLE OCCURRING
OVER KEWEENAW AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ONTONAGON COUNTY. SOME SNOW
FLURRIES ARE FALLING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN ONTONAGON COUNTY. ADDED
PATCHY DZ/FZDZ TO GRIDS UNTIL AROUND 06Z FOR WEST/NORTHWEST AND INTO
NCNTRL. RAP/NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE AFTER 06Z IT BECOMES COLD
ENOUGH FOR MIXED PRECIP TO CHANGE TO MAINLY SNOW.
ADDED FOG TO MUCH OF EAST HALF OF CWA THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER LK MICHIGAN PUSHING DWPNTS IN LOW 30S OVER THE
WET SNOW PACK FM THE SNOW THAT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY. ALREADY SEEING
VSBY BLO 2SM OVER MOST OF THE EAST PART OF THE CWA...INCLUDING VSBY
DOWN TO 1/4SM IN THE LAST HOUR AT MNM. ONCE WINDS IN BLYR SHIFT TO NW
LATER THIS EVENING...FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AS MOISTENING FLOW OFF
LK MICHIGAN WILL BE DIMINISHED. &&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS THE SHOW SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE
BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECT
CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH MAIN SNOW BAND AHEAD OF THE SFC-8H
TROF OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. IT/S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
-FZDZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SNOW BAND WITH MID-LVL DRYING
AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW TO REACH THE -10C ISOTHERM...BUT
NOT SURE IF THE FZDZ WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FCST
GRIDS THIS EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE THAT N TO NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRES TONIGHT. COOLING LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS...850MB TEMPS (AROUND -6C) ARE MARGINAL FOR ENHANCEMENT
WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE IS AROUND...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT STRONGLY
CYCLONIC...AND DGZ IS ABOVE THE UPWARD MOTION AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE. UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC MOTION MAY BE THE DRIVING COMPONENT
AIDING SNOWFALL...AND WHERE THAT IS MAXIMIZED...EXPECT GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING OF INVERSION HGTS AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING MID-LVL RDG UPSTREAM MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A BRIEF PD OF
UPSLOPE FZDZ LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NRN TIER COUNTIES IN NRLY FLOW
LATE TONIGHT...BUT NAM SNDGS SHOW THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER COOLING TO
-10C BY SUNRISE WHICH SHOULD AGAIN SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. SINCE FZDZ THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AND LOOKS TO BE BRIEF
IF IT DOES OCCUR WL LEAVE IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW. LOOK FOR MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S INTERIOR WEST TO UPPER 20S EAST
HALF.
1034 MB SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD WEAKEN THE PRES
GRADIENT AND THUS ALLOW NRLY WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 3KFT WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH ANY REMAINING LIGHT UPSLOPE SHSN TO FLURRIES BY
LATE MORNING. LOOK FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S WEST
TO LOWER 30S EAST HALF.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE SFC-500MB. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME
MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AS THE SFC RIDGE
EXITS E TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE AXIS OF THE 500MB RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR SLOWLY INCREASING W-SW
WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 9 TO 12C.
THIS WILL BE QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT VALUES WHICH ARE
HOVERING AROUND -4C.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL COME IN SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. AS MOISTURE INCREASES...LIGHT WAA WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE
CWA. KEPT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AS WELL FOR THIS WILL BE IN
ADVANCE OF THE ELONGATED SFC LOW OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS AT
00Z SUNDAY WITH THE HIGH DEW POINTS OVER THE MELTING SNOWPACK. THE
12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE THE LOW OVER MN AT 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN SHIFTING ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR/CENTRAL ONTARIO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THIS PERIOD...AND ADJUST AS NEEDED AS THE
TIME NEARS.
LOOK FOR THE COLD AIR TO SURGE IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW/COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PRECIP TURNING ALL BACK TO SNOW BY
MONDAY EVENING AT THE LATEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT
1252 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL RESULT IN IFR CIGS AND SCT -SHSN THIS AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT WITH SNOW PICKING UP FOR A TIME
UNDER STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE NNW-N WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AT KCMX LATE TONIGHT AS UPSLOPING DIMINISHES AND SOME
MINOR DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT AT KIWD AND KSAW TUE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
BEHIND THE LOW...N TO NW WINDS RAMP UP TONIGHT...AIDED BY PRES RISES
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MAGNITUDE OF PRES RISES SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW HRS WHEN WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 35KT FROM NCNTRL TO SCNTRL
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES. WITH THE HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER
LAKES TUE NIGHT/WED...LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT ARE EXPECTED... AND
THESE LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD LINGER ON THRU THU AND POSSIBLY FRI AS
WELL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
653 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
FORECAST EXPECTATIONS REMAIN ON TARGET AS THE MAIN AREA PRECIP MOVES
THROUGH THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING. SURFACE TEMPS NEAR
40 WILL HELP WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT ONSET...BUT JUST BRIEFLY AT MBS
BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW...AND A SLIGHTLY LONGER MIX AT FNT BEFORE
CHANGING OVER THERE AS WELL. EXPECT A MIX AS FAR SOUTH AS PTK BEFORE
THE BAND MOVES TO THE EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS IS A SLIGHTLY
COLDER PRECIP TYPE FORECAST BASED ON THE COOLING EFFECT OF HIGHER
PRECIPITATION RATE INDICATED ON RADAR OVER SW LOWER AT PRESS TIME.
EXPECT A QUICK DROP TO IFR/LIFR CEILING AT MOST LOCATIONS BY MID
EVENING WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION AREA AND THEN LASTING THROUGH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT/OCCLUDED FRONT. A SUBSTANTIAL
COMPONENT OF FOG AND DRIZZLE IS INDICATED OVER WISCONSIN...
ILLINOIS...AND INDIANA BY A COMBINATION OF SURFACE OBS AND RADAR
COMPOSITE WITHIN AND SHORTLY TRAILING THE FRONT. THIS WILL
REINFORCE LIFR CEILING UNTIL THE WIND INCREASES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN LEAD TO GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WHERE CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW... RAIN DURING THE EVENING COULD MIX BRIEFLY WITH WET
SNOW...BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST AND WITH NO
ACCUMULATION.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 1/2 SM AND/OR CIGS
BELOW 200 FT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED COMPACT MIDLEVEL WAVE
OVER THE MN/IA BORDER SPINNING SEWD. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
PRESENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE OVER IN AND MI. MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WAS SUPPORTING A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED SWATH OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE PRECIP OVER WESTERN MI AND NORTHERN IN...MOVING NEWD.
THERE WAS A SHARP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AS EVIDENCED
BY QUICKLY LOWERING CEILINGS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. NWP IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE AREA OF FGEN AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN AROUND 23-05Z /PERHAPS
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT/ WITH ANY ONE AREA SEEING AROUND 3-4 HOURS OF
PRECIP. QPF SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AROUND .10-.15 INCHES.
PRECIP TYPE IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOW/MID
20S OVER SE MI. RAP HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH ASSOCIATED
WETBULB TEMPS 32-35F. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP A WHOLE LOT IN
ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP WITH CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD EDGE UPWARD INTO THE UPPER 20S. WETBULB EFFECTS ONCE THE
PRECIP STARTS SHOULD DROP TEMPS INTO THE 33-37 DEGREE RANGE. WHILE
MUCH OF THE REGION COULD EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW /WITH
SNOW MORE LIKELY IN THE AREAS OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER PRECIP/...HAVE
GONE WITH PREDOMINANTLY RAIN FOR METRO DETROIT AND SOUTH...MOSTLY
SNOW FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB...AND A MIX
INBETWEEN. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE SNOW TO
MAINLY REMAIN AOA FREEZING WITH LOW SNOW RATIOS SO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN...WITH PERHAPS UP TO HALF AN INCH IN SPOTS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69.
ONCE THE UPPER MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE REGION CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND EXPECT THAT
WILL BE THE CASE OVER OUR AREA AS WELL. PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS GET CLOSER TO FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DRIFTING OFF TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS IT BECOMES
A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. SE MI WILL BE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL AND BROAD LIFT FROM THE TROUGH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD
BEFORE LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS TRIES TO
FORCE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. A BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH
IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN MI. THIS PRESENTS ONE OF THE MAIN
CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM AS THAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A MILD
SUNNY WEEKEND OR A CLOUDY WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.
WE START OFF TUESDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER HEAD WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OVERCAST SKIES AND WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND
LIFT WITH A SATURATED COLUMN UP TO 8KFT WILL PRODUCE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FORCING PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. ONE
QUESTION REMAINS TO BE WHAT WILL THE PTYPE BE ON TUESDAY? THE TREND
WILL BE FOR THE COLUMN TO COOL AS THE -26C 500MB COLD POOL SLIDE
OVER THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO WITH 850MB TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NEGATIVE. BUT THE SATURATION ONLY CLIMBS TO
AROUND 750MB OR SO WHICH MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH FOR ALL ICE
CRYSTALS WITH TEMPS NEARING -9C. SO KEPT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY POSSIBLY SWITCHING OVER TO ALL
SNOW CLOSER TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING UP TOWARD
950MB...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
PREVENT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS SFC TEMPS REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S.
THE NATURE OF THE PRECIP FORCING CHANGES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED EAST LEAVING A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS COLDER NORTHERLY
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER
THE THUMB BUT MODELS DO NO INDICATE ANY STRONG CONVERGENT REGIONS
OVER THE LAKE AND DELTA T FROM THE SFC TO 850MB IS RATHER WEAK
AROUND 10C. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHER POP...LOWER QPF FORECAST FOR
THE THUMB UNTIL WE SEE MORE DEFINITIVE SIGNATURES TO LOWER THE POPS
OR START THINKING IN TERMS OF POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES
OVER LAND WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AS THE
BACKSIDE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE...AND DRY WEATHER...LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE A
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TRYING TO CREEP IN ON THURSDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE AT
THIS TIME IS LOW AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA /ST CLAIR SANILAC AND
EASTERN HURON COUNTIES/. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE ALL RAIN...HOWEVER...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF SOME SNOW MIXES IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO DROP. FOR NOW HAVE JUST LEFT THE PRECIPITATION AS ALL RAIN
BUT SNOW MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED LATER AS WE GET A BETTER SAMPLING OF
HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT.
MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO
SETTLE ALLOWING US TO CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER SAGINAW
BAY A FEW HOURS EARLY BUT FLOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION OF THE NEARSHORE SMALL CRAFTS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY VEERING WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE STALLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WILL HELP EXCITE THE WIND FIELD ONCE AGAIN. A MARGINAL
GALE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN AS WINDS LOOK
TO GUST NEAR 35 KNOTS WITH THIS SETUP. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY
TRY TO HEAD BACK WEST TOWARD THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK WHICH WOULD
KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
LHZ441>443-462>464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...DT
LONG TERM....DRK/RK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
342 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS MT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE FEATURE
OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT SHIFTS E...REACHING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON. AT THE SFC...SHORTWAVE WAS SUPPORTING LOW PRES OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN. TO THE E...HIGH PRES CENTER HAS SLIPPED E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MI. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME BTWN THE
SHORTWAVE AND DEPARTING HIGH PRES HAS LED TO QUITE A BIT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT. RADARS
ARE ALSO SHOWING RETURNS...BUT SO FAR...THE FARTHEST S ANY -SN HAS
BEEN REPORTED IN OBS IS AT THUNDER BAY ONTARIO AS DRY AIR NOTED
BELOW 750MB ON 00Z KINL SOUNDING IS WORKING TO LIMIT SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF -SN REACHING THE GROUND.
TODAY...SHORTWAVE OVER MT WILL MOVE TO THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW REACHING FAR SE MANITOBA BY EVENING. STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WHICH IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED INTO NRN MN WILL
SHIFT E TODAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS WILL
FAIL TO MOISTEN ACROSS UPPER MI DUE TO A PERSISTENT FEED OF
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRES. TO THE W...AXIS OF
850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE REMAINS JUST W OF THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. SO...
NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY. TEMPS SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 20S/LWR 30S.
TONIGHT...AS RIBBON OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ENHANCED BY 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT AND DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TRANSLATE W-E...
CATEGORICAL POPS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE CNTRL OVERNIGHT. SNOW MAY NOT REACH THE
FAR E AROUND KERY UNTIL TOWARD 12Z. AVERAGED MODEL QPF INDICATES 0.1
TO 0.2 INCHES OF QPF TONIGHT...SUGGESTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN
GENERAL AS SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN 10-12 TO
1. THESE NUMBERS APPEAR ON TRACK FROM AN ISENTROPIC STANDPOINT AS
MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND 3G/KG ARE AVBL WITH CLOSE TO 6HRS OF ASCENT.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER THE E SINCE SNOW DOESN`T
BEGIN UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. CLOUDS/PCPN/WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MORE THAN ROUGHLY 2-4 DEGREES FROM
TODAYS HIGH TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
GOOD AGREEMENT IN LARGER SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE LENGTH OF THE
LONG TERM INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSES THE AREA ON
MONDAY WILL BE WEAKENING AS IS SLIDES EAST OF LK SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY
MORNING. NNW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT...AT LEAST IN DIMINISHING
STATE...EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE TO H7 LINGERS AND H85 TEMPS
DROP TO AROUND -8C. LOW-LEVEL WINDS NOT TOO CYCLONIC SO CONVERGENCE
WILL BE WEAK. SNOW ACCUMS MONDAY EVENING SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN
A COUPLE INCHES FOR NW CWA. DEPARTING DEEP MOISTURE AND LIMITED COLD
AIR /H9-H85 TEMPS -8C TO -10C/ IS MARGINAL FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT...SO
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH SHARPLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALL CWA. LIGHT
LES COULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT CONTINUED DRYING AND
SFC RIDGING WILL SPELL AN END TO LES TUE AFTN.
BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT...APPEARS QUIET WITH NO BIG STORMS OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FEATURES RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE MID PORTION OF THE CONUS MID TO LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN STRONG EAST COAST STORM
THAT WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
NEW ENGLAND. THE BUILDING UPR RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SPRAWLING SFC RIDGE
FM CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY ONLY MOVING SLOWLY
TO NORTHERN QUEBEC TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY.
COULD BE A COUPLE CHILLY NIGHTS INLAND ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND AS PWATS ARE BLO 75 PCT
OF NORMAL. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...MINS EITHER NIGHT MAY FALL
TOWARD ZERO. FOR NOW HAVE SOME SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THERE
UNTIL CAN GET BETTER HANDLE ON EXTENT OF MID CLOUDS.
BY NEXT WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. SW FLOW SFC-H85 WILL TRANSPORT HIGHER DWPNTS FM THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. YET IT IS NOT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT SFC DWPNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER 32F. SOUNDINGS FM GFS
INDICATE SHALLOWER MOISTURE THAN THEY SHOWED YDY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SO COULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE WHICH WOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SHOT UP SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE. ONCE DWPNTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING PROSPECTS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG AS THIS MOISTURE RIDES OVER GRADUAL MELTING SNOWPACK. ECMWF
AND GFS ALSO INDICATE MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES WITH SOME WEAK LIFT
DEVELOPING DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN CONUS. WILL HAVE SMALL POPS IN THERE FOR
RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ALSO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG SINCE
DWPNTS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID-UPR 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN EXITING HIGH PRES TO THE E AND LOW
PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER
20 KT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WITH LOW-LEVELS
REMAINING DRY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO
EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...-SN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW
PRES SYSTEM WILL SPREAD E INTO UPPER MI. ALL TERMINALS WILL FALL TO
MVFR. WITH SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SNOW EXPECTED AT KCMX/KSAW...THERE MAY BE
SOME PERIODS OF IFR VIS. LOOK FOR ALL SITES TO LOWER TO IFR CIGS BY
MON MORNING AS LOW-LVL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND PRES FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRES WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY
GALES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS OVER THE W WL STAY MOSTLY BLO 30KT. AS LOW PRES/COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES LATE MON/MON EVENING...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW-N. WITH SYSTEM TRENDING WEAKER AS IT
DEPARTS...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BLO GALES MON NIGHT INTO TUE...NO
HIGHER THAN 30KT MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST. HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING
TUE NIGHT/WED MAY LINGER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN
WINDS UNDER 20KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ248-249-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ250.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
327 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS MT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE FEATURE
OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT SHIFTS E...REACHING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON. AT THE SFC...SHORTWAVE WAS SUPPORTING LOW PRES OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN. TO THE E...HIGH PRES CENTER HAS SLIPPED E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MI. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME BTWN THE
SHORTWAVE AND DEPARTING HIGH PRES HAS LED TO QUITE A BIT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT. RADARS
ARE ALSO SHOWING RETURNS...BUT SO FAR...THE FARTHEST S ANY -SN HAS
BEEN REPORTED IN OBS IS AT THUNDER BAY ONTARIO AS DRY AIR NOTED
BELOW 750MB ON 00Z KINL SOUNDING IS WORKING TO LIMIT SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF -SN REACHING THE GROUND.
TODAY...SHORTWAVE OVER MT WILL MOVE TO THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW REACHING FAR SE MANITOBA BY EVENING. STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WHICH IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED INTO NRN MN WILL
SHIFT E TODAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS WILL
FAIL TO MOISTEN ACROSS UPPER MI DUE TO A PERSISTENT FEED OF
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRES. TO THE W...AXIS OF
850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE REMAINS JUST W OF THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. SO...
NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY. TEMPS SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 20S/LWR 30S.
TONIGHT...AS RIBBON OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ENHANCED BY 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT AND DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TRANSLATE W-E...
CATEGORICAL POPS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE CNTRL OVERNIGHT. SNOW MAY NOT REACH THE
FAR E AROUND KERY UNTIL TOWARD 12Z. AVERAGED MODEL QPF INDICATES 0.1
TO 0.2 INCHES OF QPF TONIGHT...SUGGESTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN
GENERAL AS SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN 10-12 TO
1. THESE NUMBERS APPEAR ON TRACK FROM AN ISENTROPIC STANDPOINT AS
MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND 3G/KG ARE AVBL WITH CLOSE TO 6HRS OF ASCENT.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER THE E SINCE SNOW DOESN`T
BEGIN UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. CLOUDS/PCPN/WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MORE THAN ROUGHLY 2-4 DEGREES FROM
TODAYS HIGH TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
GOOD AGREEMENT IN LARGER SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE LENGTH OF THE
LONG TERM INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSES THE AREA ON
MONDAY WILL BE WEAKENING AS IS SLIDES EAST OF LK SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY
MORNING. NNW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT...AT LEAST IN DIMINISHING
STATE...EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE TO H7 LINGERS AND H85 TEMPS
DROP TO AROUND -8C. LOW-LEVEL WINDS NOT TOO CYCLONIC SO CONVERGENCE
WILL BE WEAK. SNOW ACCUMS MONDAY EVENING SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN
A COUPLE INCHES FOR NW CWA. DEPARTING DEEP MOISTURE AND LIMITED COLD
AIR /H9-H85 TEMPS -8C TO -10C/ IS MARGINAL FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT...SO
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH SHARPLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALL CWA. LIGHT
LES COULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT CONTINUED DRYING AND
SFC RIDGING WILL SPELL AN END TO LES TUE AFTN.
BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT...APPEARS QUIET WITH NO BIG STORMS OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FEATURES RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE MID PORTION OF THE CONUS MID TO LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN STRONG EAST COAST STORM
THAT WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
NEW ENGLAND. THE BUILDING UPR RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SPRAWLING SFC RIDGE
FM CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY ONLY MOVING SLOWLY
TO NORTHERN QUEBEC TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY.
COULD BE A COUPLE CHILLY NIGHTS INLAND ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND AS PWATS ARE BLO 75 PCT
OF NORMAL. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...MINS EITHER NIGHT MAY FALL
TOWARD ZERO. FOR NOW HAVE SOME SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THERE
UNTIL CAN GET BETTER HANDLE ON EXTENT OF MID CLOUDS.
BY NEXT WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. SW FLOW SFC-H85 WILL TRANSPORT HIGHER DWPNTS FM THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. YET IT IS NOT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT SFC DWPNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER 32F. SOUNDINGS FM GFS
INDICATE SHALLOWER MOISTURE THAN THEY SHOWED YDY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SO COULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE WHICH WOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SHOT UP SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE. ONCE DWPNTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING PROSPECTS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG AS THIS MOISTURE RIDES OVER GRADUAL MELTING SNOWPACK. ECMWF
AND GFS ALSO INDICATE MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES WITH SOME WEAK LIFT
DEVELOPING DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN CONUS. WILL HAVE SMALL POPS IN THERE FOR
RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ALSO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG SINCE
DWPNTS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID-UPR 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN EXITING HIGH PRES TO THE E AND LOW
PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER
20 KT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WITH LOW-LEVELS
REMAINING DRY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO
EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...-SN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW
PRES SYSTEM WILL SPREAD E INTO UPPER MI. ALL TERMINALS WILL FALL TO
MVFR. WITH SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SNOW EXPECTED AT KCMX/KSAW...THERE MAY BE
SOME PERIODS OF IFR VIS. LOOK FOR ALL SITES TO LOWER TO IFR CIGS BY
MON MORNING AS LOW-LVL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND PRES FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY/TONIGHT. ACROSS THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...
WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH GALE FORCE LATER THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT
WHILE WINDS OVER THE W STAY MOSTLY BLO 30KT. AS LOW PRES/COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES LATE MON/MON EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW-N. WITH SYSTEM TRENDING WEAKER AS IT DEPARTS...THESE WINDS
WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO...IT NOW
APPEARS GALES PROBABLY WON`T OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING TUE NIGHT/WED WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT THAT MAY LINGER ON THRU
THU AS WELL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ248-249-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ250.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
135 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS MT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE FEATURE
OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT SHIFTS E...REACHING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON. AT THE SFC...SHORTWAVE WAS SUPPORTING LOW PRES OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN. TO THE E...HIGH PRES CENTER HAS SLIPPED E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MI. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME BTWN THE
SHORTWAVE AND DEPARTING HIGH PRES HAS LED TO QUITE A BIT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT. RADARS
ARE ALSO SHOWING RETURNS...BUT SO FAR...THE FARTHEST S ANY -SN HAS
BEEN REPORTED IN OBS IS AT THUNDER BAY ONTARIO AS DRY AIR NOTED
BELOW 750MB ON 00Z KINL SOUNDING IS WORKING TO LIMIT SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF -SN REACHING THE GROUND.
TODAY...SHORTWAVE OVER MT WILL MOVE TO THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW REACHING FAR SE MANITOBA BY EVENING. STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WHICH IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED INTO NRN MN WILL
SHIFT E TODAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS WILL
FAIL TO MOISTEN ACROSS UPPER MI DUE TO A PERSISTENT FEED OF
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRES. TO THE W...AXIS OF
850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE REMAINS JUST W OF THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. SO...
NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY. TEMPS SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 20S/LWR 30S.
TONIGHT...AS RIBBON OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ENHANCED BY 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT AND DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TRANSLATE W-E...
CATEGORICAL POPS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE CNTRL OVERNIGHT. SNOW MAY NOT REACH THE
FAR E AROUND KERY UNTIL TOWARD 12Z. AVERAGED MODEL QPF INDICATES 0.1
TO 0.2 INCHES OF QPF TONIGHT...SUGGESTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN
GENERAL AS SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN 10-12 TO
1. THESE NUMBERS APPEAR ON TRACK FROM AN ISENTROPIC STANDPOINT AS
MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND 3G/KG ARE AVBL WITH CLOSE TO 6HRS OF ASCENT.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER THE E SINCE SNOW DOESN`T
BEGIN UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. CLOUDS/PCPN/WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MORE THAN ROUGHLY 2-4 DEGREES FROM
TODAYS HIGH TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON THROUGH THU...WITH LESS AGREEMENT
FRI AND SAT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR THEN TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR STEADILY BETWEEN 12Z MON AND
06Z TUE. THIS WILL BRING A WEAKENING/BROADENING 1012-1016MB SFC LOW
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT ALL SNOW WITH THE EVENT FROM 12Z MON ON...BUT 850MB TEMPS
ONLY FALL TO A MINIMUM OF -8C AT 12Z TUE...WHICH IS WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE DRY SLOT LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO WRN UPPER MI
AROUND 12Z MON AS THE BEST FORCING IS OVER THE ERN CWA AND NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. HAVE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS IN THE
MORNING...SHIFTING NE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
AND COOL UPSLOPE FLOW...LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE PRECIP WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS MON EVENING/MON NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TUE AS A 1034MB SFC
RIDGE MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DID REDUCE LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE
POPS AS MODELS TREND WARMER WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS. FOR MON THROUGH
TUE...GENERALLY HAVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH 1 INCH OR SO INLAND.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL FOR PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOVE 0C BY THU MORNING
AND MAKING IT UP TO AROUND 10C FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. OF
COURSE...TEMPERATURE INVERSION NEAR THE SFC WILL BE PRETTY STRONG SO
SFC TEMPS WILL BE MORE LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S
IN SOME LOCATIONS ON SAT. MODELS DO SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF QPF FRI INTO SAT...BUT THINK THAT IS DUE TO MODELS OVERDOING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AS THEY NORMALLY DO WHEN THEY SIMULATE SNOWPACK
MELTING. DID NOT INCLUDE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN EXITING HIGH PRES TO THE E AND LOW
PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER
20 KT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WITH LOW-LEVELS
REMAINING DRY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO
EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...-SN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW
PRES SYSTEM WILL SPREAD E INTO UPPER MI. ALL TERMINALS WILL FALL TO
MVFR. WITH SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SNOW EXPECTED AT KCMX/KSAW...THERE MAY BE
SOME PERIODS OF IFR VIS. LOOK FOR ALL SITES TO LOWER TO IFR CIGS BY
MON MORNING AS LOW-LVL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND PRES FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY/TONIGHT. ACROSS THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...
WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH GALE FORCE LATER THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT
WHILE WINDS OVER THE W STAY MOSTLY BLO 30KT. AS LOW PRES/COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES LATE MON/MON EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW-N. WITH SYSTEM TRENDING WEAKER AS IT DEPARTS...THESE WINDS
WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO...IT NOW
APPEARS GALES PROBABLY WON`T OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING TUE NIGHT/WED WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT THAT MAY LINGER ON THRU
THU AS WELL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ248-249-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ250.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
633 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS MT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE FEATURE
OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT SHIFTS E...REACHING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON. AT THE SFC...SHORTWAVE WAS SUPPORTING LOW PRES OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN. TO THE E...HIGH PRES CENTER HAS SLIPPED E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MI. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME BTWN THE
SHORTWAVE AND DEPARTING HIGH PRES HAS LED TO QUITE A BIT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT. RADARS
ARE ALSO SHOWING RETURNS...BUT SO FAR...THE FARTHEST S ANY -SN HAS
BEEN REPORTED IN OBS IS AT THUNDER BAY ONTARIO AS DRY AIR NOTED
BELOW 750MB ON 00Z KINL SOUNDING IS WORKING TO LIMIT SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF -SN REACHING THE GROUND.
TODAY...SHORTWAVE OVER MT WILL MOVE TO THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW REACHING FAR SE MANITOBA BY EVENING. STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WHICH IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED INTO NRN MN WILL
SHIFT E TODAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS WILL
FAIL TO MOISTEN ACROSS UPPER MI DUE TO A PERSISTENT FEED OF
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRES. TO THE W...AXIS OF
850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE REMAINS JUST W OF THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. SO...
NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY. TEMPS SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 20S/LWR 30S.
TONIGHT...AS RIBBON OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ENHANCED BY 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT AND DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TRANSLATE W-E...
CATEGORICAL POPS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE CNTRL OVERNIGHT. SNOW MAY NOT REACH THE
FAR E AROUND KERY UNTIL TOWARD 12Z. AVERAGED MODEL QPF INDICATES 0.1
TO 0.2 INCHES OF QPF TONIGHT...SUGGESTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN
GENERAL AS SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN 10-12 TO
1. THESE NUMBERS APPEAR ON TRACK FROM AN ISENTROPIC STANDPOINT AS
MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND 3G/KG ARE AVBL WITH CLOSE TO 6HRS OF ASCENT.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER THE E SINCE SNOW DOESN`T
BEGIN UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. CLOUDS/PCPN/WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MORE THAN ROUGHLY 2-4 DEGREES FROM
TODAYS HIGH TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON THROUGH THU...WITH LESS AGREEMENT
FRI AND SAT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR THEN TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR STEADILY BETWEEN 12Z MON AND
06Z TUE. THIS WILL BRING A WEAKENING/BROADENING 1012-1016MB SFC LOW
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT ALL SNOW WITH THE EVENT FROM 12Z MON ON...BUT 850MB TEMPS
ONLY FALL TO A MINIMUM OF -8C AT 12Z TUE...WHICH IS WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE DRY SLOT LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO WRN UPPER MI
AROUND 12Z MON AS THE BEST FORCING IS OVER THE ERN CWA AND NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. HAVE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS IN THE
MORNING...SHIFTING NE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
AND COOL UPSLOPE FLOW...LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE PRECIP WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS MON EVENING/MON NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TUE AS A 1034MB SFC
RIDGE MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DID REDUCE LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE
POPS AS MODELS TREND WARMER WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS. FOR MON THROUGH
TUE...GENERALLY HAVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH 1 INCH OR SO INLAND.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL FOR PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOVE 0C BY THU MORNING
AND MAKING IT UP TO AROUND 10C FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. OF
COURSE...TEMPERATURE INVERSION NEAR THE SFC WILL BE PRETTY STRONG SO
SFC TEMPS WILL BE MORE LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S
IN SOME LOCATIONS ON SAT. MODELS DO SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF QPF FRI INTO SAT...BUT THINK THAT IS DUE TO MODELS OVERDOING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AS THEY NORMALLY DO WHEN THEY SIMULATE SNOWPACK
MELTING. DID NOT INCLUDE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS HIGH PRES EXITS TO THE E AND LOW
PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY. OTHERWISE...WITH LOW-LEVELS REMAINING
DRY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE AFTN.
TONIGHT...-SN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD E INTO UPPER MI. ALL TERMINALS WILL FALL TO MVFR. WITH
SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SNOW EXPECTED AT KCMX/KSAW...THERE MAY BE SOME
PERIODS OF IFR VIS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND PRES FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY/TONIGHT. ACROSS THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...
WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH GALE FORCE LATER THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT
WHILE WINDS OVER THE W STAY MOSTLY BLO 30KT. AS LOW PRES/COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES LATE MON/MON EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW-N. WITH SYSTEM TRENDING WEAKER AS IT DEPARTS...THESE WINDS
WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO...IT NOW
APPEARS GALES PROBABLY WON`T OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING TUE NIGHT/WED WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT THAT MAY LINGER ON THRU
THU AS WELL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ248-249-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ250.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
538 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS MT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE FEATURE
OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT SHIFTS E...REACHING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON. AT THE SFC...SHORTWAVE WAS SUPPORTING LOW PRES OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN. TO THE E...HIGH PRES CENTER HAS SLIPPED E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MI. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME BTWN THE
SHORTWAVE AND DEPARTING HIGH PRES HAS LED TO QUITE A BIT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT. RADARS
ARE ALSO SHOWING RETURNS...BUT SO FAR...THE FARTHEST S ANY -SN HAS
BEEN REPORTED IN OBS IS AT THUNDER BAY ONTARIO AS DRY AIR NOTED
BELOW 750MB ON 00Z KINL SOUNDING IS WORKING TO LIMIT SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF -SN REACHING THE GROUND.
TODAY...SHORTWAVE OVER MT WILL MOVE TO THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW REACHING FAR SE MANITOBA BY EVENING. STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WHICH IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED INTO NRN MN WILL
SHIFT E TODAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS WILL
FAIL TO MOISTEN ACROSS UPPER MI DUE TO A PERSISTENT FEED OF
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRES. TO THE W...AXIS OF
850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE REMAINS JUST W OF THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. SO...
NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY. TEMPS SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 20S/LWR 30S.
TONIGHT...AS RIBBON OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ENHANCED BY 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT AND DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TRANSLATE W-E...
CATEGORICAL POPS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE CNTRL OVERNIGHT. SNOW MAY NOT REACH THE
FAR E AROUND KERY UNTIL TOWARD 12Z. AVERAGED MODEL QPF INDICATES 0.1
TO 0.2 INCHES OF QPF TONIGHT...SUGGESTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN
GENERAL AS SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN 10-12 TO
1. THESE NUMBERS APPEAR ON TRACK FROM AN ISENTROPIC STANDPOINT AS
MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND 3G/KG ARE AVBL WITH CLOSE TO 6HRS OF ASCENT.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER THE E SINCE SNOW DOESN`T
BEGIN UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. CLOUDS/PCPN/WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MORE THAN ROUGHLY 2-4 DEGREES FROM
TODAYS HIGH TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON THROUGH THU...WITH LESS AGREEMENT
FRI AND SAT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR THEN TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR STEADILY BETWEEN 12Z MON AND
06Z TUE. THIS WILL BRING A WEAKENING/BROADENING 1012-1016MB SFC LOW
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT ALL SNOW WITH THE EVENT FROM 12Z MON ON...BUT 850MB TEMPS
ONLY FALL TO A MINIMUM OF -8C AT 12Z TUE...WHICH IS WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE DRY SLOT LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO WRN UPPER MI
AROUND 12Z MON AS THE BEST FORCING IS OVER THE ERN CWA AND NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. HAVE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS IN THE
MORNING...SHIFTING NE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
AND COOL UPSLOPE FLOW...LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE PRECIP WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS MON EVENING/MON NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TUE AS A 1034MB SFC
RIDGE MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DID REDUCE LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE
POPS AS MODELS TREND WARMER WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS. FOR MON THROUGH
TUE...GENERALLY HAVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH 1 INCH OR SO INLAND.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL FOR PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOVE 0C BY THU MORNING
AND MAKING IT UP TO AROUND 10C FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. OF
COURSE...TEMPERATURE INVERSION NEAR THE SFC WILL BE PRETTY STRONG SO
SFC TEMPS WILL BE MORE LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S
IN SOME LOCATIONS ON SAT. MODELS DO SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF QPF FRI INTO SAT...BUT THINK THAT IS DUE TO MODELS OVERDOING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AS THEY NORMALLY DO WHEN THEY SIMULATE SNOWPACK
MELTING. DID NOT INCLUDE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
MID CLOUDS WITH WAA AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS
WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SRLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY AND
BECOME GUSTY BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT IWD AND SAW. AS A DISTURBANCE
AND THE PLAINS LOW MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...SOME LIGHT SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WRN UPPER MI BY LATE EVENING WITH CIGS
VSBY DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND PRES FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY/TONIGHT. ACROSS THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...
WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH GALE FORCE LATER THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT
WHILE WINDS OVER THE W STAY MOSTLY BLO 30KT. AS LOW PRES/COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES LATE MON/MON EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW-N. WITH SYSTEM TRENDING WEAKER AS IT DEPARTS...THESE WINDS
WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO...IT NOW
APPEARS GALES PROBABLY WON`T OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING TUE NIGHT/WED WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT THAT MAY LINGER ON THRU
THU AS WELL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ248-249-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ250.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1153 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 918 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2014
Primary meteorological elements of interest tonight are sky cover
and temperatures. Complicated sky cover forecast as 11-3.9 micron
channel is showing advection of the low stratus deck slowly to the
WSW at around 15-20 knots. Concurrently...some thick cirrus is
moving ahead of the next shortwave and spilling over midlevel
ridge axis. Have updated grids to decrease the sky cover in the
near term where stratus deck is moving out of before ramping
opaque cloud cover back up due to the aforementioned thick cirrus
shield.
Other problem tonight as been temperatures as they have cooled off
quickly in areas which have scattered out due to loss of low
stratus deck. As a result...lowered temps in northeast Missouri
and southwest Illinois a bit through 6-9Z before leveling off as
cirrus overtakes the same region. Net result...not too much change
from previous forecast`s overnight minimums.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2014
Low stratus located within the southern portion of a large high
pressure system continues to dominate the region at mid afternoon.
There has been a slow clearing trend to our north with the clearing
line located near the MO/IA border into northern IL. This high
pressure system will dominate tonight as it moves to the east with
low level flow gradually veering to easterly by mid evening and
then east-southeasterly overnight. Given the trends in the wind
field, there will probably be additional southward clearing into
the early evening then the northern edge will hold steady before
retreating back northwest overnight. The RAP H950 RH is the only
guidance that seems to have a decent handle on this evolution. The
abundance of clouds tonight would suggest MOS guidance is too low
on mins, with the coolest values expected across northeast MO and
west central IL.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2014
The high pressure system will continue to retreat on Sunday and
this will keep low clouds prevalent. Add in high clouds and it will
make for a mostly cloudy-cloudy day. There are some indications that
southern portions of the CWA could see some clearing from the
south of the low clouds, and hence warmer high temps are expected.
The next threat of precipitation will come Sunday night into
Monday morning. A short wave trof will dig into the mid-upper MS
valley. The large scale ascent associated with this wave along
increasing mid level moisture and low level warm advection should
be sufficient to generate some spotty/scattered precipitation
ahead of the attendant cold front. Temperature profiles indicate
the precipitation should be in the form of rain, with the highest
pops late Monday night across northeast MO and along and east of
the MS River on Monday morning. Monday should be milder with
decreasing clouds as first a prefrontal trof and then the cold
front then sweeps through the area. Another brief round of cold
air then dominates on Tuesday with expansive high pressure.
The upper air pattern will be in transition during the extended
period from Wednesday into next weekend. The eastern U.S. upper
trof/low will be progressive lifting northeast and eventually off
the Atlantic Seaboard. A northwest flow short wave in the wake of
the slowly retreating trof looks to impact our area sometime late
Wednesday into early Thursday, however present indications are any
precipitation threat should be confined to western MO. Heights
aloft then gradually rise in the wake of the shortwave trof and
high pressure departs, leading to southerly low level flow Friday
into the Saturday and a warming trend.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2014
Difficult ceiling forecast for the rest of the night. The low MVFR
and IFR ceilings cleared rapidly from the northeast across the
area and now west central and most of southwest Illinois as well
as northeast Missouri and parts of east central Missouri are out
of the low stuff. Hard to see much detail from satellite pictures
at this time because of a blanket of rather dense cirrus clouds
which has moved over the area; but best guess from surface obs and
what I can see from satellite is that the clouds now stretch from
near KMBY to KSUS to near KMVN. the southwest progress of the
clearing appears to have slowed and it should stop over the next
couple of hours as low level flow turns more to the east and then
east-southeast. Should see some redevelopment in the clouds over
areas that are now clear as this occurs. Regardless, think MVFR
and IFR fog will likely prevail where clouds do not redevelop.
Where clouds redevelop toward morning, expect ceilings to persist
until late morning/early afternoon before scattering out. Fog
should dissipate within an hour or two after sunrise.
Specifics for KSTL:
MVFR ceilings have pushed just to the southwest of Lambert at this
hour. Expect the ceilings to stay to the southwest for a few hours
before moving back over the terminal before sunrise. Timing and
height of the clouds is uncertain at this time. Until then, expect
current 5SM fog to thicken a bit, perhaps down to 2SM...tho I feel
this is unlikely. Once clouds come back into the terminal, expect
ceilings to persist through the morning and scatter out during the
early afternoon due to daytime heating.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE CLOUD
COVER AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES. ATTENTION TURNS MORE TOWARD THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
LARGE SCALE 500 MB PATTERN AT 12Z HAD THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES.
A TROUGH WAS LOCATED TO OUR EAST/NORTHEAST...A RIDGE STRETCHED
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO ALASKA AND A BROAD TROUGH WAS OUT
OVER THE PACIFIC. A CLOSED LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OUT OF THE TROUGH TO
OUR EAST IN THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE UNITED STATES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THAT FEATURE WILL THEN LIKELY WOBBLE INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES INTO SATURDAY. IN OUR AREA...GENERAL RIDGING OCCURS IN THE
MID LEVELS BUT THERE WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING EAST
THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE...MAKING THE PATTERN A BIT MESSY. THE TROUGH
IN THE PACIFIC WILL BE PROGRESSIVE..AND BRING VERY WET WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK.
TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER IS PROBLEMATIC. LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN A BAND
FROM NORTHERN IOWA ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THESE MAY TRY TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THE MOST
RECENT RAP AND HRRR MODEL RUNS TEND TO DISSIPATE THIS
CLOUDINESS...BUT 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION NAM AND GFS DID BRING THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. A
COLD FRONT WAS ALREADY TRACKING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR TONIGHT. WE EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO
THE LOWER 20S SOUTH.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH ONLY POOR TO FAIR MIXING.
NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY TURNING TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY...AND HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 30S. AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
STAYS TO OUR SOUTH IN KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
AFTER COORDINATION WITH BORDERING OFFICES...ADDED SOME DRIZZLE INTO
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE 32 F. KEPT SOME
MENTION OF DRIZZLE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI FOR THURSDAY SO DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF DRIZZLE IN THAT PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD REACH
INTO THE 40S...POSSIBLY WARMER IF CLOUD COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
PATTERN IS A BIT MORE ACTIVE IN THIS PERIOD. 500 MB RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS OUR AREA AND INTO ONTARIO AT 12Z FRIDAY
...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF A
STRONG TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. WENT SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY LOWER/MID 50S FRIDAY AND MID/
UPPER 50S SATURDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE SOME
MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA FROM SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA. ONE MAIN MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE
THE OTHER MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PCPN AMOUNTS OUT OF OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WITH A DECK OF MVFR
STRATUS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. NOT TOO CONFIDENT
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE STRATUS WILL SPREAD...BUT KEPT
TEMPO GROUP FOR KOFK/KOMA LATER THIS EVENING TO HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL...WITH SCT MENTION THROUGH MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT...THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 8-10KT...AND SLACKEN
FURTHER TO LIGHT/VARIABLE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1128 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
SENT ANOTHER UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS WITH CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG LINGERING A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...DO NOT THINK THAT THE FORECAST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB QUITE AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AS A RESULT...ADJUSTED FORECAST MAX TEMPS
DOWN A FEW DEGREES USING RAP GUIDANCE AS A REFERENCE...WITH NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES NECESSARY TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
FOCUS IS ON FOG...STRATUS...AND DRIZZLE INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
AS EXPECTED STRATUS CONTINUES TO ADVECT TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS AS WE HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW.
TEMPS HAVE RISEN AS THE LOW CLOUD COVER HAS THICKENED AND FOR THE
MOST PART TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK OR JUST A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW. TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE CLOSED OR ARE
WITHIN A DEGREE OF EACH OTHER AND WE HAVE SEEN VSBYS DROP ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA ALREADY IN FOG AND BASED ON MODEL TRENDS THE
STRATUS/FOG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS OF SOME DEGREE SHOULD ENCOMPASS OUR
ENTIRE CWA BY DAYBREAK. VSBYS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE BEEN VARIABLE
DUE TO STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CURRENTLY HAVE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR OUR SE AREAS WHERE VSBYS WERE THE
LOWEST INITIALLY...BUT DENSE FOG HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE ON A
WIDESPREAD BASIS. DESPITE THIS...WITH TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING...HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING RID OF THE HEADLINE AS FOG IS
OUT THERE AND CANNOT RULE OUT MINIMAL ICING ON ELEVATED SFCS FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS.
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING FM THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFT OVER THE LLVL MOISTURE COMBINED AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY GENERATE DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
BASED ON SFC TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. WE HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS BUT NO REPORTS OF PCPN ON OBS AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
DOWN FOR RECEIVING MEASURABLE PCPN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST MODELS...EXPECT DRIZZLE IF
ANYTHING VS RAIN...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST OF OUR WESTERN ZONES BY MID MORNING AND
AROUND MID DAY FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES AND ANY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL
COME TO AN END AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA. A NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY SCOUR THE LOW CLOUDS/LLVL MOISTURE TO THE EAST BY THE
EVENING.
TEMPS LOOK TO STRUGGLE DUE TO THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY AND HAVE BACKED OFF ON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. NOT
A WHOLE LOT TO SAY ABOUT TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR
OUR REGION WHILE AN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
MILD DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WITH A COOL NIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST TUESDAY...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND THE
MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OUT. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING AS MUCH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARM ADVECTION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
AGAIN. BY SATURDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND WINDS TURN TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASE. MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA AND
CLOUDS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS A PASSING DISTURBANCE HELPS TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD DECK. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...DO NOT EXPECT A RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL ABOUT 07/21Z...WITH LIGHT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES RETURNING THIS EVENING AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1001 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY IS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. FOG LOOP INDICATED
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUE TO ADVECT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WILL HAVE TO RAISE TEMPS OVER THE MN SIDE WITH MORE CLOUDS FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AND DECREASE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WINDS
WERE DROPPING OFF OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION.
EXPECT TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING
WITH NO CLOUD COVER.
HOURLY TEMPS TWEAKED THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS DECREASED A BIT WITH CLEARING IN THE NORTH.
WILL UPDATE LOW TEMP ON NEXT UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND IF WE GET ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ARE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE SFC LOW HAS BEEN MOVING OFF OF THE ARROWHEAD
OF MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FROM ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE STARTED IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
CWA...WHICH THE RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON. CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND WE SHOULD
BE FAIRLY CLEAR BY MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE SIGNS OF SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMATION...BUT ALONG WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE DRIER AIR AT THE SFC. THINK THAT CHANCES WILL NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR FOG TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
TOMORROW...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SD...BUT
THE COLUMN WILL BE TOO DRY TO DO MUCH AND NONE OF THE MODELS ARE
PRODUCING ANY PRECIP. THE SFC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH A COLD START AND 850MB TEMPS
STILL CLOSE TO ZERO EARLY IN THE DAY...TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 20S
EVEN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SOUTH WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
SFC TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BACK UP
WELL ABOVE ZERO AND SOME CLOSE TO 10 C. THE SPOILER MAY BE IF WE
GET STRATUS COMING BACK UP AND REMAINING OVER THE REGION. THE NAM
WAS EVEN TRYING TO PUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP OUT THURSDAY OVER
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE ANY DRIZZLE MENTION OUT FOR NOW
BUT BUMPED UP CLOUDS A BIT IN THE FAR EAST. HIGHS SHOULD SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...REACHING BACK
TOWARDS THE 30 MARK AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON
THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON 500MB RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NAEFS SHOWS
850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
STARTING EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS REACH
TO 12C TO 16C FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
INSTEAD OF THE SFC WARMING SW OR WEST PLUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
STRATUS LAYER ADVECTING NORTH KEEPING TEMPS COOLER SATURDAY. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND AS CLOUDS WILL MAKE OR BREAK TEMPS...EVEN
WITH LOW SUN ANGLE. UPR 30S TO 40 WITH CLOUDS...WITHOUT MID TO UPR
40S POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FROPA SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT PCPN
CHC TO THE FA AND BRING TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 20S BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10 AND 18 HUNDRED FT WERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS INDICATE CLEARING OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHWEST ZONES. TRAILING EDGE OF CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. EXPECT CLEARING TO CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
702 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WINDS
WERE DROPPING OFF OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION.
EXPECT TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING
WITH NO CLOUD COVER.
HOURLY TEMPS TWEAKED THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS DECREASED A BIT WITH CLEARING IN THE NORTH.
WILL UPDATE LOW TEMP ON NEXT UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND IF WE GET ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ARE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE SFC LOW HAS BEEN MOVING OFF OF THE ARROWHEAD
OF MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FROM ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE STARTED IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
CWA...WHICH THE RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON. CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND WE SHOULD
BE FAIRLY CLEAR BY MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE SIGNS OF SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMATION...BUT ALONG WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE DRIER AIR AT THE SFC. THINK THAT CHANCES WILL NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR FOG TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
TOMORROW...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SD...BUT
THE COLUMN WILL BE TOO DRY TO DO MUCH AND NONE OF THE MODELS ARE
PRODUCING ANY PRECIP. THE SFC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH A COLD START AND 850MB TEMPS
STILL CLOSE TO ZERO EARLY IN THE DAY...TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 20S
EVEN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SOUTH WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
SFC TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BACK UP
WELL ABOVE ZERO AND SOME CLOSE TO 10 C. THE SPOILER MAY BE IF WE
GET STRATUS COMING BACK UP AND REMAINING OVER THE REGION. THE NAM
WAS EVEN TRYING TO PUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP OUT THURSDAY OVER
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE ANY DRIZZLE MENTION OUT FOR NOW
BUT BUMPED UP CLOUDS A BIT IN THE FAR EAST. HIGHS SHOULD SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...REACHING BACK
TOWARDS THE 30 MARK AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON
THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON 500MB RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NAEFS SHOWS
850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
STARTING EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS REACH
TO 12C TO 16C FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
INSTEAD OF THE SFC WARMING SW OR WEST PLUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
STRATUS LAYER ADVECTING NORTH KEEPING TEMPS COOLER SATURDAY. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND AS CLOUDS WILL MAKE OR BREAK TEMPS...EVEN
WITH LOW SUN ANGLE. UPR 30S TO 40 WITH CLOUDS...WITHOUT MID TO UPR
40S POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FROPA SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT PCPN
CHC TO THE FA AND BRING TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 20S BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10 AND 18 HUNDRED FT WERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS INDICATE CLEARING OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHWEST ZONES. TRAILING EDGE OF CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. EXPECT CLEARING TO CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1237 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO FINE TUNE THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PRECIP FORECAST.
A LIGHT BAND OF FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
MONTANA. GLASGOW MONTANA PICKED UP AROUND 0.01 INCHES OF FREEZING
RAIN AND REPORTED SLICK CONDITIONS. WHILE THIS BAND IS RATHER
SMALL AND PRODUCING VERY MINIMAL AMOUNTS...EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF
ICE CAN CAUSE PROBLEMS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THIS BAND OF FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE IT INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SHORT-TERM...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE A
POOR HANDLE ON THIS BAND...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS RATHER LOW. THIS BAND OF PRECIP IS VERY
LIGHT AND NARROW AND COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME AS THE MAIN
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS STILL OUT IN CENTRAL MONTANA. BUT... FELT
IT BETTER TO BE SAFE THAN SORRY...SO KEPT THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT GOING AND THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WORKING ITS
WAY FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MONTANA. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD GRASP ON THE PRECIPITATION BEING
PRESENT...BUT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS HAS HELD IT TOO FAR NORTH.
WITH THIS...HAVE SPREAD PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH A BIT AND
HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME OVER MUCH OF FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THIS TOGETHER AS IT PUSHES EAST. BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WITH THE COOLER SURFACE TEMPS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SHOWING UP OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WITH
LIGHT RAIN BEING REPORTED IN LEWISTOWN. WILL WATCH HOW THIS
EVOLVES THROUGH THE EVENING AS IT PUSHES EAST AS HIGH-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT IF
ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. CURRENT
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL. ONLY CHANGE THAT WAS MADE FOR EARLY
EVENING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH
CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE POSSIBLE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. THE
WAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT AND DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NORTHEAST MT/SOUTH CENTRAL SK BY 12 UTC
SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ENCOMPASSING ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST 20 UTC RAP DEPICTS A BAND OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 08 UTC SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST
CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAP MAINTAINS THE LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES
AS THEY CROSS THE CWA BUT KEEPS MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS...AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THE GFS/EC/GEM ALL
BRING VERY LIGHT QPF INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST THROUGH 12 UTC. THE
EC/GEM ALSO TRACK SOME TRACE AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING. THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND IS ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. THUS
HAVE KEPT BEST CHANCE FOR QPF IN THE FAR NORTHWEST 06-12 UTC
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES 12-18 UTC SUNDAY.
WILL STILL HAVE A MENTION OF SOME FREEZING RAIN SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL (MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94) BUT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN ACROSS THE NORTH...DETERMINISTIC
MODEL QPF REMAINS AT OR BELOW A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. ONLY A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN CAN CAUSE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL ISSUES. BUT WITH
LOW MODEL QPF...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WE
WILL STILL HAVE TIME TO WATCH THINGS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
COULD STILL SEE A VERY LIGHT MIX OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH COLD ADVECTION TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS THE WEST WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
SNOW AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO SEE ALL RAIN
WITH A QUICK CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES.
IT WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST BEHIND THE TRACK OF THE LOW. STRONGEST WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE CENTRAL LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE MORNING NORTH TO EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
DEPARTS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z MONDAY WITH COLDER AIR REMAINING
IN PLACE FOR THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
WITH A TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...UPPER
RIDGING DOMINATES AND SHIFTS EAST BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO RETURN. HOWEVER NOTHING FORESEEN IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY PER
GFS/GEM GLOBAL/SUPERBLEND. HOWEVER THE LATEST ECMWF PUSHES A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE AND CONSEQUENTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION/FAVORING RAIN
SHOWERS AT THIS POINT...ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 35F AND 45F WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A
BIT COOLER FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. -FZRA
MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 07Z AND PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS AT KISN
BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z. LEFT OUT OTHER TERMINALS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW
COVERAGE...BUT WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING. -RA/-FZRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE....WITH A TRANSITION TOWARDS -SN AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. CIGS WILL DIMINISH TO MVFR
LEVELS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
947 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING LOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT TO MERGE WITH A LOW NEAR THE VIRGINIA COAST TUESDAY
MORNING THAT WILL STALL NEAR BOSTON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO
VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR MODEL RIGHT ON TARGET WITH PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. COLDER
AIR PUSHING EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK REASONABLE AS DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE THIRTIES
BEHIND THE WEAK WARM FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SITUATION ON TUE LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE LATTER PART OF TONIGHT
WITH TEMPS NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT JUST SNOW. CAN SEE THE
PRECIP WAVERING BACK AND FORTH ON TUE. BESIDES...THE PRECIP WILL BE
LIGHT SO THINK SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL STAY UNDER A HALF AN INCH.
BY TUE NIGHT...THE BETTER ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD BE GETTING
COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW BUT THE THREAT SHOULD BE SHIFTING INTO
MAINLY JUST THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS ALOFT ONLY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A
LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
SNOWBELT AND NEARBY AREAS WITH MAX AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 2 TO MAYBE 3
INCHES LOOKING POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE SNOWBELT IN NW
PA.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STALLED INTO THU SO NOT A LOT
WILL CHANGE THRU THEN. A GOOD CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PREVAIL THRU THU WITH ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY STAYING ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN ANY GIVEN 12
HOUR PERIOD IN THE SNOWBELT WITH DUSTINGS OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
IN NEARBY AREAS.
TEMPS WILL STAY ABOUT 5 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THIS PERIOD.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
AREA STARTING FRIDAY AND IT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.
ON FRIDAY A WEAK SURFACE TROF WILL BRUSH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A THREAT OF FLURRIES AND
POSSIBLY SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON EAST OF CLEVELAND. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC IN CONTINUING SOME QPF ON FRIDAY
AS IT IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING IN THE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME
LEANING MAINLY DRY.
THE ECMWF MODEL WAS TRYING TO HINT AT SOME QPF OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE DRY AIR...RIDGING AND NO
OMEGA. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL KEEPS IT DRY...SO WENT THAT
DIRECTION.
WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BECOME ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE NEAR AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
MOST OF THIS WILL STRUGGLE TO SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NW OHIO SINCE
THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO HELP ERODE IT. THE REGION
WILL THEN HAVE A PERIOD OF WEAK LIFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND IFR CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE KERI AREA WILL LIKELY BE THE
LATEST GETTING THE IFR CONDITIONS SINCE THERE WILL BE A DECENT
DOWN SLOPING COMPONENT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTH AS IT PASSES. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TIMING AND INTENSITY IS UNCERTAIN SO ONLY
PLACED A VICINITY SHOWER IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW BY TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY NE
OHIO INTO NW PA.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAINLY IN NE OHIO AND NW PA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THUR WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING LOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT TO MERGE WITH A LOW NEAR THE VIRGINIA COAST TUESDAY
MORNING THAT WILL STALL NEAR BOSTON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO
VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MAYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1233 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAVE PASSES WITH COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. COLDER
AIR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 18Z THE FRONT HAS CLEARED CRW AND CKB WITH SURFACE LOW E OF
EKN. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE MOUNTAINS BY 21Z. AS THE FRONT
CROSSES...TEMPERATURE FALLS OF 7 TO 10 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING TEMPS THEREAFTER THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW
CIGS AND VSBY IN POST FRONTAL DZ CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL WATCH
-RA TO FILL BACK IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSES. AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF...SAVE FOR SOME DZ HANGING ON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. ELECTED TO KEEP POSSIBILITY OF IT ENDING AS A LITTLE FRZ
DZ BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS.
WHAT WILL NOT CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING IS THE LOW STRATUS.
HOWEVER...DO EXPECT BASES TO LIFT A BIT TONIGHT. THINK SE OH WILL
SCT OUT DURING THE PREDAWN. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BENEATH THIS LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT VERY
DIFFICULT FOR STRATUS TO BREAK UP E OF THE OH RIVER OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAK
CAA BENEATH THE INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE
NE...FELT IT NECESSARY TO HOLD THE STRATUS IN ALONG THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS IN THIS SETUP....IE THE C LOWLANDS
AND COAL FIELDS THRU THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCT
OUT FROM NE TO SW...WITH AREAS ALONG AND S OF I64 CORRIDOR THE
LAST TO LOSE THE STRATUS...POSSIBLY HOLDING ON UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPS...USED A BLEND OF LAMP AND HRRR FOR TEMPS TONIGHT. FOR
SUNDAY...USED MET AS A BASE WHICH BETTER REFLECTED EXPECTED COOLER
READINGS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY S OF I64 CORRIDOR DUE TO CLOUDS.
FURTHER N...FELT LOCAL MOS WAS THE WAY TO GO WHERE READINGS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID OR UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM EASTERN
CANADA DOMINATE SUNDAY...BUT SUNSHINE STILL LIMITED TO THE MORNING
HOURS WITH CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING IN OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS NOW SETTLING ON THE TROUGH AXIS
HOLDING THE DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE AND MAINLY AWAY FROM
OUR EASTERN MOST RIDGES...BUT WILL STILL ENTERTAIN SOME LOW END POPS
FOR THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF RAND/POCA COUNTIES. SOME ICING IS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.
HAVE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR THE LOWLAND UPSLOPE AREAS FROM RAIN
TO SNOW A BIT SLOWER...AND JUST BEGINNING BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. 925MB TEMPERATURES GO BELOW 0C JUST
AFTER 21Z TUESDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS...MAKING THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD
THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION TIMES FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LOWLANDS
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LIKELY IN THE BEGINNING FEW HOURS OF THE
LONG TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE GFS...GEFS MEAN...ECMWF...ECMWF MEAN...AND
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WOULD HAVE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW...SO COULD SEE DRIZZLE
INSTEAD OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN MOVES IN
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA...WITH IFR
AT BKW. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BEGINS. AS DRY AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE N...CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATER TODAY WITH VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CURRENT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY BY TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENTS MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 12/07/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M M M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ
AS MENTIONED IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION... WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. NAM MOS GUIDANCE...
HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST THAT VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/2SM WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KSPS.. KLAW... KHBR AND PERHAPS NORTH UP TO KOUN...
KOKC AND KCSM. AT THE MOMENT... HAVE JUST PUT A TEMPO GROUP TO 1SM
OR 2SM AT SOME OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES BUT WILL WATCH
TRENDS FOR INDICATION OF HIGHER CHANCES OF THE DENSE FOG.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF STRATUS REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP SOUTH
OF I40 TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OK
ALTHOUGH IT WILL FEEL WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH CLEAR
SKIES PRESENT. BY WED...SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN BUT CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS TWO MINOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IMPACT THE REGION AND MOISTURE INCREASES. DRIZZLE APPEARS
POSSIBLE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER THURS
AM...WITH PATCHY FOG AND A SCHC OF RAIN FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THURS WITH SOUTH WINDS
PRESENT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WAA REGIME WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MORE STRATUS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A DIFFICULT TEMP FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...LOCATIONS OUT WEST COULD CLIMB UP INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WHERE 850MB
TEMPS COULD REACH THE MID TEENS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE SAT THROUGH SUN AS A
DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL INCLUDE A SMALL
AREA OF LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE OKC METRO FOR NOW SUN...BUT GIVEN
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS THESE WILL LIKELY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ZONES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 38 57 37 56 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 38 58 40 57 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 39 62 42 62 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 34 58 39 57 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 34 50 31 50 / 0 0 0 20
DURANT OK 40 62 38 57 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1033 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST AND BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
PRECIP LIFTING NORTH INTO THE SC MTNS LATE THIS EVENING IN REGION
OF LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE OVR THE S APPALACHIANS.
SATL-DERIVED PWAT LOOP SHOWING DEEP LVL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD
THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG AXIS OF EASTERLY LL JET. HAVE
ACCELERATED THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND ALSO
HAVE TRENDED PTYPE TO MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS AND LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...WHICH
SUGGESTS A STRIPE OF A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IS NOW POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT FROM SOMERSET/BEDFORD CO NEWRD INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS.
FURTHER EAST...STILL THINKING A PERIOD OF FZRA IS MOST LIKELY OVR
THE SUSQ VALLEY EARLY TUE AM.
BLEND OF 18Z CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST TEMPS BY
DAWN WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...TO PERHAPS
JUST ABV FREEZING OVR LANCASTER CO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STILL A VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST DESPITE HOW CLOSE WE ARE TO THE
ONSET OF THINGS.
A LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE DUE NORTH AND UP
ALONG THE NJ COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS SLIGHTLY
OFFSHORE TRACK...EASTERN PA WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE STORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVR SE PA...AND POSSIBLY SOME SIG
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF TIOGA/SULLIVAN/SCHUYLKILL
COUNTIES.
WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL WINT WX ADVISORY BEFORE 18Z...AS
NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPS RISING WELL ABV FREEZING BY
LATE AM. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE EARLY AM COMMUTE FOR A MIXTURE
OF SNOW AND FRZA.
MAIN FCST ISSUE REMAINS HOW FAR WEST SIG PRECIP CAN BE DRAGGED
INTO CENTRAL PA. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN A PRETTY SHARP BACK EDGE
CUTTING OFF MOST OF THE PRECIP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN STATE COLLEGE AND
PERHAPS WILLIAMSPORT-HARRISBURG.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY STILL HIGH...WE KEPT THE WINTER STORM WATCH
UP FOR OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM TIOGA SOUTH DOWN INTO SCHUYLKILL
COUNTY...EMPHASIZING THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY WET SNOW BEING OVER
THOSE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LATEST RAP...21Z SREF AND 00Z NAM ALL
SUGGEST ENOUGH WARM AIR OVERSPREADS EASTERN PA TO TURN THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP TO RAIN BTWN LATE AM AND TUE AFTN OVR OUR NE
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING DEFORMATION BAND ON THE NW
PERIPHERY OF MID LVL LOW COULD STILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SIG SNOW
TUE NIGHT FROM TIOGA CO SOUTH THRU SCHUYLKILL CO.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NJ COAST AROUND MID DAY TUESDAY
AND SLOW DOWN OR EVEN STALL FOR PERHAPS A DAY OR MORE AS THE UPPER
LOW CAPTURES THE SYSTEM. WHILE MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY WARM ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR JUST PLAIN RAIN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE COLDER AIR TO COME IN AT ALL
LEVELS AND CHANGE THE MIXED PRECIP BACK TO MAINLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WED.
IT`S STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL RESULT AS THE MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE.
THE SOLUTIONS FALL BETWEEN THE ECMWF THAT TARGETS MY NWRN ZONES
EVEN THROUGH WED INTO THURSDAY...TO THE GFS THAT SHOWS ALMOST NO
PRECIP WRAPPING BACK. I KEPT A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT QPF IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THE ACTIVITY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE LOW MOVING VERY SLOWLY IF AT ALL...THE CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN HIGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
I GENERALLY KEPT AMOUNTS LOW...DEPENDENT ON THE FORMATION OF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE MENTIONED EARLIER...OR NOT.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
UPPER LOW TO NUDGE EAST ENOUGH TO HAVE US BEGINNING TO ENJOY THE
INFLUENCE OF SOME RIDGING AND FAIRER CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCH OF VERY FINE SNOW OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
AREA.
03Z TAFS ADJUSTED AND SENT.
BFD OB MISSING AT TIMES...STILL ABLE TO CALL UP.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOWER CLDS CAME IN SOONER THAN WHAT I LOOKED AT LAST NIGHT.
ANYWAY...RADAR AND OBS SUPPORT ISOLATED POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT
PCPN THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRAVEL NORTH
NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT...DEEPEN JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
TUESDAY...THEN DRIFT NORTH OVER LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT
TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE
LOW WILL SPREAD LOW CIGS AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
S-CENTRAL/SERN AIRFIELDS FROM LATE THIS EVE INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN AN
ARRAY OF PRECIP TYPES FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND
PROLONGED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
THE STRONG FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN N-NW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL.
DID GO WITH MAINLY RAIN BY 18Z TUE...EXCEPT FOR BFD.
THIS STORM WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN
IN CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND PERHAPS THE END OF THE WEEK.
RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SPELL IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THE
WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG N-NW
WINDS 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
FRI...BECOMING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
SAT...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 5 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ037-041-042-053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>052-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1002 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST AND BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
PRECIP LIFTING NORTH INTO THE SC MTNS LATE THIS EVENING IN REGION
OF LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE OVR THE S APPALACHIANS.
SATL-DERIVED PWAT LOOP SHOWING DEEP LVL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD
THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG AXIS OF EASTERLY LL JET. HAVE
ACCELERATED THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND ALSO
HAVE TRENDED PTYPE TO MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS AND LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...WHICH
SUGGESTS A STRIPE OF A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IS NOW POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT FROM SOMERSET/BEDFORD CO NEWRD INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS.
FURTHER EAST...STILL THINKING A PERIOD OF FZRA IS MOST LIKELY OVR
THE SUSQ VALLEY EARLY TUE AM.
BLEND OF 18Z CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST TEMPS BY
DAWN WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...TO PERHAPS
JUST ABV FREEZING OVR LANCASTER CO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STILL A VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST DESPITE HOW CLOSE WE ARE TO THE
ONSET OF THINGS.
A LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE DUE NORTH AND UP
ALONG THE NJ COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS SLIGHTLY
OFFSHORE TRACK...EASTERN PA WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE STORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVR SE PA...AND POSSIBLY SOME SIG
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF TIOGA/SULLIVAN/SCHUYLKILL
COUNTIES.
WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL WINT WX ADVISORY BEFORE 18Z...AS
NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPS RISING WELL ABV FREEZING BY
LATE AM. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE EARLY AM COMMUTE FOR A MIXTURE
OF SNOW AND FRZA.
MAIN FCST ISSUE REMAINS HOW FAR WEST SIG PRECIP CAN BE DRAGGED
INTO CENTRAL PA. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN A PRETTY SHARP BACK EDGE
CUTTING OFF MOST OF THE PRECIP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN STATE COLLEGE AND
PERHAPS WILLIAMSPORT-HARRISBURG.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY STILL HIGH...WE KEPT THE WINTER STORM WATCH
UP FOR OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM TIOGA SOUTH DOWN INTO SCHUYLKILL
COUNTY...EMPHASIZING THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY WET SNOW BEING OVER
THOSE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LATEST RAP...21Z SREF AND 00Z NAM ALL
SUGGEST ENOUGH WARM AIR OVERSPREADS EASTERN PA TO TURN THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP TO RAIN BTWN LATE AM AND TUE AFTN OVR OUR NE
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING DEFORMATION BAND ON THE NW
PERIPHERY OF MID LVL LOW COULD STILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SIG SNOW
TUE NIGHT FROM TIOGA CO SOUTH THRU SCHUYLKILL CO.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NJ COAST AROUND MID DAY TUESDAY
AND SLOW DOWN OR EVEN STALL FOR PERHAPS A DAY OR MORE AS THE UPPER
LOW CAPTURES THE SYSTEM. WHILE MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY WARM ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR JUST PLAIN RAIN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE COLDER AIR TO COME IN AT ALL
LEVELS AND CHANGE THE MIXED PRECIP BACK TO MAINLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WED.
IT`S STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL RESULT AS THE MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE.
THE SOLUTIONS FALL BETWEEN THE ECMWF THAT TARGETS MY NWRN ZONES
EVEN THROUGH WED INTO THURSDAY...TO THE GFS THAT SHOWS ALMOST NO
PRECIP WRAPPING BACK. I KEPT A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT QPF IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THE ACTIVITY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE LOW MOVING VERY SLOWLY IF AT ALL...THE CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN HIGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
I GENERALLY KEPT AMOUNTS LOW...DEPENDENT ON THE FORMATION OF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE MENTIONED EARLIER...OR NOT.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
UPPER LOW TO NUDGE EAST ENOUGH TO HAVE US BEGINNING TO ENJOY THE
INFLUENCE OF SOME RIDGING AND FAIRER CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOWER CLDS CAME IN SOONER THAN WHAT I LOOKED AT LAST NIGHT.
ANYWAY...RADAR AND OBS SUPPORT ISOLATED POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT
PCPN THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRAVEL NORTH
NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT...DEEPEN JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
TUESDAY...THEN DRIFT NORTH OVER LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT
TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE
LOW WILL SPREAD LOW CIGS AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
S-CENTRAL/SERN AIRFIELDS FROM LATE THIS EVE INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN AN
ARRAY OF PRECIP TYPES FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND
PROLONGED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
THE STRONG FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN N-NW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL.
DID GO WITH MAINLY RAIN BY 18Z TUE...EXCEPT FOR BFD.
THIS STORM WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN
IN CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND PERHAPS THE END OF THE WEEK.
RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SPELL IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THE
WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG N-NW
WINDS 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
FRI...BECOMING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
SAT...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 5 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ037-041-042-053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>052-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
905 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
SHORT TERM CLOUD TRENDS HAVE BEEN CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST.
STRONG PUSH OF CLEARING HAS OCCURRED FROM THE JAMES VALLEY
THROUGH I 29 CORRIDOR IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS... NARROWING AND BACKING BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN CWA...WHILE BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE
EAST...BUT FAR LESS IMPRESSIVELY. IN CLEARING...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
MUCH FASTER AS HAVE THE WINDS...WHILE STILL GUSTY AND RELATIVELY
WARMER UNDER CLOUDS TO EAST. CLEARING WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING WHILE A SLOWER BACKING TO NARROW BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS WORKS OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL. WILL SEE CLOUDS AGAIN
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ALONG/EAST OF THE I29 CORRIDOR AS FINAL
LOBE WRAPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GENERAL NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS. DOWNSLOPE OFF THE RIDGE
WITH NARROWING MOISTURE DEPTH COULD CREATE A FEW ISSUES WORKING
CLOUDS MUCH SOUTHWEST PAST KFSD...AND EVEN TO KFSD. COULD POSSIBLY
SEE A FEW FLURRIES START TO FLUTTER THROUGH SKIES IN THE NORTHEAST
AFTER 08Z...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT MUCH MERIT IN THE MENTION WITH
TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.
HAVE TRIMMED A COUPLE OF LOWS DOWN A BIT IN VICINITY OF RIDGE AXIS
AND CLEARING...BUT IN GENERAL EVEN ADVECTION WILL TAKE LOWS TO
EARLIER LEVELS...JUST A BIT QUICKER OF A START THIS EVENING TO
THOSE ENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE STATUS OF THE LOW
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAD BEEN SPREADING SOUTH OVER THE AREA. THAT
SPREAD HAS DONE A NEAR HALT AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTION RUNS INTO THE
HEATED AIR NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. IT SEEMS WITH THE START OF
EARLY EVENING COOLING THAT THE DECK WOULD AGAIN START SPREADING
SOUTH. CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS SOUTH
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND WAS STARTING TO GET INTO FAR NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AT 20Z. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP SUGGEST THE 925 MB FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO GO STRAIGHT NORTHERLY AND CONTINUE THUS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 06Z/MIDNIGHT...THOUGH DECREASING SLOWLY DURING THE
EVENING. EXPECT THIS WILL GIVE THE DRYING CONTINUED TRANSPORT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND NOT ALLOW THE SOLID
CLOUD COVER TO GET ALL THE WAY TO THE RIVER...OR OF IT BRIEFLY
DOES...IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT AGAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY. AM PLANNING FOR A
LITTLE INCREASE IN THE LOW CLOUDS THERE BUT WITH THE WARM AIR
THERE CURRENTLY AND DRYING FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING...HAVE KEPT THE INCREASE VERY MODEST BEFORE IT CLEARS OUT
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL STEADILY TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING AND
DROPOFF IN WINDS...WITH LOWS BEING REACH ABOUT SUNRISE AT 8 AM.
WINDS BY THEN SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH WITH A 5 TO 5 MPH
NORTHERLY BREEZE IN THE EAST LINGERING TO SUNUP.
TUESDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DRIFTING INTO THE AREA. HAVE GONE PRETTY
CONSERVATIVE IN CLOUD COVER AND IF THEY HIGHER CLOUDS ARE THICK
ENOUGH IT COULD GET MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR PART OF THE DAY. IN ANY EVENT
HEATING BY THE DECEMBER SUN WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
MUCH OF THE WARMING UPSTAIRS EVEN WITH NO SNOW COVER...AND FORECAST
HIGHS WILL REMAIN AROUND 30 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THOUGH...WITH THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE BREEZE PICKING TO 10 PLUS IN THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY WARM AND MOSTLY
DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A MINOR SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS WAVE...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS AND VIRGA POSSIBLE
GIVEN DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
THE WARMUP BEGINS TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. AS LOW LVL TEMPERATURES BUILD...SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO VEER SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. WARM AIR WILL BE SLOW TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT NEAR 40 READINGS SHOULD BE
ATTAINABLE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK TO BE VERY WARM AS DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PULLS BOTH MOISTURE AND WARM AIR OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY WARM EACH AFTERNOON...WITH THE 40S LIKELY ON
THURSDAY AND 40S AND 50S ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT FALL VERY
FALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND CURRENT LOWS MAY STILL BE
TOO LOW. THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD
NOT ALLOW FOR ANY EXTREME JUMP ON SATURDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WARMING
INTO THE MID 50S AND POTENTIALLY EVEN DRIZZLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR THEIR SEASONAL NORMALS. THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH CONTINUE TO
BE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THOUGH A WEDGE OF CLEARING PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE VFR CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY FOR KHON/KMHE.
OVERNIGHT FORECAST FOR KFSD/KSUX MORE UNCERTAIN AS THIS MOISTURE
LAYER GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AND
POSSIBLE THE CLOUD DECK MAY EVENTUALLY JUST BECOME MORE SCATTERED
WITH TIME IN THESE AREAS...WHILE MORE SOLID DECK PERSISTS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. THUS FORECAST
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT KFSD/KSUX BY LATE EVENING/JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT PRESENTLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING...AND
ADJUSTMENTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AFTER WATCHING TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-26KT WITHIN THE STRATUS
LAYER EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY LATE
EVENING.
GREATER CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA BY
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS THEN REMAINING VFR
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
533 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE STATUS OF THE LOW
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAD BEEN SPREADING SOUTH OVER THE AREA. THAT
SPREAD HAS DONE A NEAR HALT AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTION RUNS INTO THE
HEATED AIR NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. IT SEEMS WITH THE START OF
EARLY EVENING COOLING THAT THE DECK WOULD AGAIN START SPREADING
SOUTH. CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS SOUTH
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND WAS STARTING TO GET INTO FAR NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AT 20Z. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP SUGGEST THE 925 MB FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO GO STRAIGHT NORTHERLY AND CONTINUE THUS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 06Z/MIDNIGHT...THOUGH DECREASING SLOWLY DURING THE
EVENING. EXPECT THIS WILL GIVE THE DRYING CONTINUED TRANSPORT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND NOT ALLOW THE SOLID
CLOUD COVER TO GET ALL THE WAY TO THE RIVER...OR OF IT BRIEFLY
DOES...IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT AGAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY. AM PLANNING FOR A
LITTLE INCREASE IN THE LOW CLOUDS THERE BUT WITH THE WARM AIR
THERE CURRENTLY AND DRYING FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING...HAVE KEPT THE INCREASE VERY MODEST BEFORE IT CLEARS OUT
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL STEADILY TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING AND
DROPOFF IN WINDS...WITH LOWS BEING REACH ABOUT SUNRISE AT 8 AM.
WINDS BY THEN SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH WITH A 5 TO 5 MPH
NORTHERLY BREEZE IN THE EAST LINGERING TO SUNUP.
TUESDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DRIFTING INTO THE AREA. HAVE GONE PRETTY
CONSERVATIVE IN CLOUD COVER AND IF THEY HIGHER CLOUDS ARE THICK
ENOUGH IT COULD GET MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR PART OF THE DAY. IN ANY EVENT
HEATING BY THE DECEMBER SUN WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
MUCH OF THE WARMING UPSTAIRS EVEN WITH NO SNOW COVER...AND FORECAST
HIGHS WILL REMAIN AROUND 30 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THOUGH...WITH THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE BREEZE PICKING TO 10 PLUS IN THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY WARM AND MOSTLY
DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A MINOR SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS WAVE...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS AND VIRGA POSSIBLE
GIVEN DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
THE WARMUP BEGINS TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. AS LOW LVL TEMPERATURES BUILD...SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO VEER SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. WARM AIR WILL BE SLOW TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT NEAR 40 READINGS SHOULD BE
ATTAINABLE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK TO BE VERY WARM AS DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PULLS BOTH MOISTURE AND WARM AIR OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY WARM EACH AFTERNOON...WITH THE 40S LIKELY ON
THURSDAY AND 40S AND 50S ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT FALL VERY
FALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND CURRENT LOWS MAY STILL BE
TOO LOW. THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSTANCIAL MOISTURE SHOULD
NOT ALLOW FOR ANY EXTREME JUMP ON SATURDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WARMING
INTO THE MID 50S AND POTENTIALLY EVEN DRIZZLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR THEIR SEASONAL NORMALS. THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH CONTINUE TO
BE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THOUGH A WEDGE OF CLEARING PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE VFR CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY FOR KHON/KMHE.
OVERNIGHT FORECAST FOR KFSD/KSUX MORE UNCERTAIN AS THIS MOISTURE
LAYER GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AND
POSSIBLE THE CLOUD DECK MAY EVENTUALLY JUST BECOME MORE SCATTERED
WITH TIME IN THESE AREAS...WHILE MORE SOLID DECK PERSISTS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. THUS FORECAST
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT KFSD/KSUX BY LATE EVENING/JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT PRESENTLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING...AND
ADJUSTMENTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AFTER WATCHING TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-26KT WITHIN THE STRATUS
LAYER EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY LATE
EVENING.
GREATER CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA BY
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS THEN REMAINING VFR
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
232 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
UPPER LOW PUSHING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. STRATUS IS ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES JUMPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. READINGS STUCK IN THE 30S ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
29 WHERE LOW STRATUS IS HOLDING. SEEING PATCHY DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHERE DEEPER SATURATION AND WEAK LIFT IS PRESENT. SOME AREAS
STILL HOLDING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. DRIZZLE IS PRETTY LIGHT AND NOT
HEARING OF ANY ISSUES...BUT SOME ICY SPOTS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS. EXPECT STRATUS TO CLEAR
INTERSTATE 29 BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING PUSHING INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. SOME STRATUS...FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY
LINGER IN OUR FAR EAST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
FOCUS THEN IS ON THE UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT. CURRENTLY
SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA...AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. THUS WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF
STRATUS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. SATURATION DOES GET
PRETTY DEEP WITH SOME WEAK LIFT AS WELL...THUS SEEMS LIKE DRIZZLE
MAY AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MAINLY BE ABOVE
FREEZING...ALTHOUGH BY LATE TONIGHT MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD FALL
BACK BELOW FREEZING. THUS MAY BE A FEW ICY SPOTS AGAIN BY
MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS AND STRATOCU WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDY SKIES OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM
HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO SIOUX CITY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE LOW AND MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. AS THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS
WELL WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. AT THIS TIME THINK IT STAYS
DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SHOWING A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
EVENING. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL FALL ON TUESDAY AS
READINGS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPERATURES COULD BE
A SHADE TOO WARM EVEN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES.
WE HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING MINOR SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO PULL OR
LINGER LOW LVL MOISTURE WITHIN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. NAM
SOUNDS SHOW A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE LAYER THAN THE GFS...WHICH GIVEN
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD RESULT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE/FOG INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING SOUTH OF I-90. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS
OVER FORECASTING OF MOISTURE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION
ATTM.
FROM THURSDAY-SUNDAY...A VERY WARM PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW ITS
HAND...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW LVL MOISTURE AND
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A ROLE...HOWEVER THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE WARMER AIR OFF THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS WPC/ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH IS NO LONGER THAT MUCH
WARMER THAN NUMBERS FROM ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PROGS. WHILE
FEW ANALOGS EXISTS FOR THIS MID-DECEMBER SETUP...120 HR CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST 30-40 PERCENT PROBS OF 60 DEGREE
READINGS OVER THE WESTERN CWA ON FRIDAY...WITH NEARLY 60-80
PERCENT PROBS OF 50+ OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
SWLY LOW LVL AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...CONCERNED THAT FRIDAY NIGHT
LOWS COULD BE MUCH TOO COLD AND SATURDAY COULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN
FRIDAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT TO WATCH MODEL GUIDANCE ADJUST.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER DETAILS
BEYOND SUNDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS HANDLING THE EVENTUAL EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AND PHASING OF SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY WITH NORTHERN STREAM
MUCH DIFFERENTLY WITH EACH MODEL RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
STRATUS...FOG AND DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE RAP FOR TIMING THE EXIT
AND RETURN TO VFR. COULD SEE IFR TO LIFR FOG AND STRATUS LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW
SWINGS ACROSS TONIGHT...EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS. COULD EVEN BE
LOWER FOR A PERIOD...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPSTREAM TRENDS. ALSO CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE TONIGHT AS THE STRATUS RETURNS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY BE ABOVE FREEZING WHEN ANY DRIZZLE
OCCURS...ALTHOUGH A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS
MAY VERY WELL LINGER INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS DECK.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY TONIGHT...AND REMAIN THAT WAY
INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
935 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINT AND RH GRIDS
SLIGHTLY TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. WE
DID ALSO A MENTION OF DENSE FOG OVER THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
BEFORE 06Z...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG MENTION THEREAFTER.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG EXTENDING FROM THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA
INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. KSPS HAS ALREADY REPORTED VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1/4 MILE IN FOG...AND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE
DEWPOINT IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS...WE COULD SEE DENSE FOG
MATERIALIZE HERE TOO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...THOUGH
PERHAPS LESS WIDESPREAD...FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE UP ON THE CAPROCK
LATER TONIGHT /WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT/. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014/
AVIATION...
THIN BUT RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KLBB
AND SOUTH OF KCDS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT. 18Z WRF-NAM NOT AS PESSIMISTIC AS ITS 12Z RUN
WHILE THE HRRR CONTINUES TO KEEP BEST POTENTIAL OFF THE CAPROCK AT
KCDS. ALSO SOME QUESTION OF HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT AFFECT
COOLING AND THUS NARROWING OF TEMP-DEW SPREAD. WILL NOT MAKE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CHANGE ATTM WITH EXPECTATION THAT RESTRICTIONS TO
VSBY AND/OR CIGS WILL BE NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. HOPEFULLY 00Z MODEL
RUNS AND LATER HI-RES RUNS WILL ADD CLARITY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
VERY LITTLE...FROM A SYNOPTIC PERSPECTIVE...TO MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ALTHOUGH WE WILL
SEE A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENTS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT. THAT SAID...SPEEDS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND POTENTIAL
FOR FOG WILL EXIST AREA WIDE. HOWEVER...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION
FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. YET...GIVEN THE
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS APPARENT TO OUR WEST...EVEN THAT IS
NOT GUARANTEED. SO...WILL STICK WITH MENTION OF FOG /PATCHY WEST TO
AREAS EAST/ TONIGHT AND ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW VISIBILITIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF WHAT WE SAW DURING THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.
LONG TERM...
MENTIONABLE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
CHANCES LOOK TO BE MORE UNLIKELY. WHILE THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE
AT THE LOW AND UPPER LEVELS...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN 800 AND 600 MB WILL PREVENT WHAT LITTLE PRECIP THAT MAY
OCCUR FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION TO DRY AIR...LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAK AT BEST.
DESPITE A LACK OF PRECIP LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH STRATUS FOG WILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.
FOG HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A LEE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP SURFACE RH VALUES LOWER. STRATUS SHOULD ALSO
NOT BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR WILL BE SITTING
OVER THE REGION.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN ELONGATED TROF WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST WITH THE LEE TROF DIGGING FURTHER SOUTHWARD.
CONTINUOUS SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL HELP WARM TEMPS
TO NEAR 70 ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF SHOULD BE
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES BY LATE SATURDAY AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO ELONGATE FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THE GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
PINCHING OFF THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROF MAKING A CLOSED LOW WHICH
WOULD GIVE THE REGION A DECENT SHOT AT PRECIP. UNTIL THE MORE RECENT
12Z RUN THE ECMWF SHOWED A SIMILAR BUT SLOWER SOLUTION. THE 12Z
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED OFF ALONG THE US/CA BORDER WITH AN OPEN
TROF IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH THE TROF REMAINS OPEN IT
MATCHES THE SPEED OF THE GFS ALMOST PERFECTLY. FOR NOW PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE FORECAST STARTING LATE SATURDAY WITH
HIGH POPS EXISTING OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE BIGGER CHALLENGE
COMES WITH PRECIP TYPE LATE SUNDAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE REGION PENDING THAT THE LOW IS CLOSED. BOTH MODELS SHOW 850 MB
TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE 00Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF SHOWED 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -5C. SNOW WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY IF TEMPS CAN COOL DOWN FAST ENOUGH...BUT
FOR NOW THE MENTION WILL BE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID 40S ON MONDAY WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK
DOWN BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 35 61 41 60 38 / 0 0 10 10 10
TULIA 35 61 42 59 42 / 0 0 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 35 61 43 59 41 / 0 0 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 38 61 42 59 43 / 0 0 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 39 63 44 59 43 / 0 0 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 43 61 44 59 43 / 0 0 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 40 61 44 59 45 / 0 0 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 39 66 43 62 47 / 0 0 10 10 10
SPUR 38 64 44 62 48 / 0 0 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 39 66 45 63 50 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
544 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Continuing along the lines of the previous TAF package, regarding
uncertainty with the extent of low stratus and fog development
tonight. The latest NAM12 and RUC13 indicate that fog and low
stratus may initially develop across our northeastern counties
early tonight, then develop (in a patchy nature) farther south and
west through the overnight hours. Could have IFR to LIFR
visibilities and ceilings at times, but with the uncertainty at
this time, going with a conservative approach with visibility
reductions, and by carrying scattered low cloud layers as opposed
to ceilings. Will monitor conditions throughout the evening and
tonight and will make adjustments as needed. Light winds will
continue tonight, and should eventually become southeast at 4-7 kt
on Tuesday afternoon.
19
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
Skies have cleared across West Central Texas, allowing temperatures
to warm into the mid 60s to near 70 degrees this afternoon. Winds
remain light and variable across the region given the proximity to
the surface anticyclone. This surface high will remain in place
overnight but should shift far enough east to allow a return of weak
southerly winds.
With little change in the airmass and light winds in place across
the area, fog and low stratus is expected to develop again tonight.
This fog should remain patchy, and confidence is rather low
regarding what areas will actually see the most significant reduced
visibilities. Over the last two mornings, we have seen transient
dense fog develop in various locations, with visibilities down to
near zero at times. Fog is expected to lift in areas where low
clouds develop. Otherwise, expect low temperatures in the lower 40s,
possibly warming a few degrees if/when cloud cover develops. The
fly in the ointment is the anticipated increase in high clouds.
This could mitigate fog development.
Pleasant weather conditions are anticipated on Tuesday. High clouds
will continue to increase with southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph. No
precipitation is expected throughout the day with temperatures
warming into the mid and upper 60s.
Johnson
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)
As a weak upper ridge moves east of the area Tuesday night, a
weak upper short wave will move east over New Mexico giving the
forecast area our next chance of rainfall. The rainfall is
expected to be light and will expand eastward from the
southwestern CWA Tuesday night over the remaining CWA Wednesday
through Thursday. The chance of rainfall will end on Friday as
upper ridging builds over the area from the west in the wake of
the departing upper short wave. Highs on Wednesday will be in the
lower 60s warming into the Upper 60s to the lower 70s by Saturday.
Models are closing an upper low over southern New Mexico Saturday
night with the dryline tightening just west of the forecast area.
Forcing along the Pacific front/dryline Saturday night will bring
a chance of showers and thunderstorms over our western CWA
Saturday night, expanding through the remainder of the forecast
area through Sunday night. As the upper level system tracks east,
an associated cold front will move across the forecast area on
Sunday with cooler post-frontal highs on Monday ranging from the
upper 40s to the lower 50s.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 41 66 48 62 51 / 0 0 5 20 20
San Angelo 41 67 49 62 52 / 0 0 10 30 20
Junction 39 67 47 61 51 / 0 0 10 40 40
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
523 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.AVIATION...
THIN BUT RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KLBB
AND SOUTH OF KCDS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT. 18Z WRF-NAM NOT AS PESSIMISTIC AS ITS 12Z RUN
WHILE THE HRRR CONTINUES TO KEEP BEST POTENTIAL OFF THE CAPROCK AT
KCDS. ALSO SOME QUESTION OF HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT AFFECT
COOLING AND THUS NARROWING OF TEMP-DEW SPREAD. WILL NOT MAKE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CHANGE ATTM WITH EXPECTATION THAT RESTRICTIONS TO
VSBY AND/OR CIGS WILL BE NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. HOPEFULLY 00Z MODEL
RUNS AND LATER HI-RES RUNS WILL ADD CLARITY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
VERY LITTLE...FROM A SYNOPTIC PERSPECTIVE...TO MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ALTHOUGH WE WILL
SEE A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENTS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT. THAT SAID...SPEEDS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND POTENTIAL
FOR FOG WILL EXIST AREA WIDE. HOWEVER...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION
FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. YET...GIVEN THE
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS APPARENT TO OUR WEST...EVEN THAT IS
NOT GUARANTEED. SO...WILL STICK WITH MENTION OF FOG /PATCHY WEST TO
AREAS EAST/ TONIGHT AND ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW VISIBILITIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF WHAT WE SAW DURING THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.
LONG TERM...
MENTIONABLE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
CHANCES LOOK TO BE MORE UNLIKELY. WHILE THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE
AT THE LOW AND UPPER LEVELS...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN 800 AND 600 MB WILL PREVENT WHAT LITTLE PRECIP THAT MAY
OCCUR FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION TO DRY AIR...LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAK AT BEST.
DESPITE A LACK OF PRECIP LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH STRATUS FOG WILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.
FOG HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A LEE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP SURFACE RH VALUES LOWER. STRATUS SHOULD ALSO
NOT BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR WILL BE SITTING
OVER THE REGION.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN ELONGATED TROF WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST WITH THE LEE TROF DIGGING FURTHER SOUTHWARD.
CONTINUOUS SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL HELP WARM TEMPS
TO NEAR 70 ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.THE UPPER LEVEL TROF SHOULD BE
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES BY LATE SATURDAY AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO ELONGATE FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THE GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
PINCHING OFF THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROF MAKING A CLOSED LOW WHICH
WOULD GIVE THE REGION A DECENT SHOT AT PRECIP. UNTIL THE MORE RECENT
12Z RUN THE ECMWF SHOWED A SIMILAR BUT SLOWER SOLUTION. THE 12Z
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED OFF ALONG THE US/CA BORDER WITH AN OPEN
TROF IN THE SOUTHCENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH THE TROF REMAINS OPEN IT
ALMOST MATCHES THE SPEED OF THE GFS ALMOST PERFECTLY. FOR NOW PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE FORECAST STARTING LATE SATURDAY WITH
HIGH POPS EXISTING OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE BIGGER CHALLENGE
COMES WITH PRECIP TYPE LATE SUNDAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE REGION PENDING THAT THE LOW IS CLOSED. BOTH MODELS SHOW 850 MB
TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE 00Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF SHOWED 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -5C. SNOW WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY IF TEMPS CAN COOL DOWN FAST ENOUGH...BUT FOR
NOW THE MENTION WILL BE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE MID 40S ON MONDAY WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK DOWN BELOW
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 35 61 41 60 38 / 0 0 10 10 10
TULIA 35 61 42 59 42 / 0 0 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 35 61 43 59 41 / 0 0 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 38 61 42 59 43 / 0 0 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 39 63 44 59 43 / 0 0 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 43 61 44 59 43 / 0 0 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 40 61 44 59 45 / 0 0 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 39 66 43 62 47 / 0 0 10 10 10
SPUR 38 64 44 62 48 / 0 0 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 39 66 45 63 50 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/23/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
336 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
The primary focus in the short term will be ongoing rain chances
and the return of fog and low visibilities to the forecast area.
Light rain showers will migrate east across the forecast area this
afternoon. Rainfall totals will remain low, though any precip will
assist in keeping the area moist. Inherited PoP grids are adequate
for expected weather this afternoon though new model data is
pessimistic about tonight and early tomorrow morning. Thus removed
mention of PoPs for that time period.
NAM, GFS, and RAP model soundings are optimistic about bringing fog
back into West Central Texas tonight. At this time, fog is
expected to form sometime after midnight and lift shortly after 9
A.M. tomorrow. Areas of fog will likely be more widespread
tonight than they were early this morning, extending from south of
Interstate 10 and north of Throckmorton. Light winds tonight and
added moisture from today`s rain showers promote this solution.
Cloud cover this morning kept temperatures from climbing too quickly
this morning resulting in afternoon high near normal. Tonight,
however, added moisture and low cloud ceilings will insulate the
forecast area and keep temperatures 5-7 degrees above normal.
Clearing skies tomorrow afternoon will allow for unseasonably warm
temperatures with highs mainly in the mid 60s.
18
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Shortwave ridging aloft Monday night will shift east as we head
into Tuesday as a weak shortwave trough moves across the
Rockies. This feature will move southeast into Plains by Wednesday
morning, slowing as it absorbs southern stream wave over the
southern Plains. Moisture will be slow to increase ahead of this
system, with dewpoints likely remaining in the lower 40s
throughout the day Tuesday. We should see ample high clouds,
keeping temperatures in the mid 60s Tuesday afternoon, but low
clouds are not expected until Tuesday night. This increasing
moisture and cloud cover will limit diurnal ranges and keep min
temps generally in the mid/upper 40s for Wednesday morning.
There are considerable differences in the midweek 500 mb pattern
between the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM, yielding low confidence in any
particular solution at this time. The GFS is the fastest of the
12z runs with the onset of isentropic ascent across West Central
TX with the ECMWF following suit 6-12 hours later. Given what has
been as progressive flow as of late, siding with a bit faster
solution seems reasonable. This broad, isentropic ascent will
result in an abundance of cloud cover Wednesday and Thursday with
a persistent southerly fetch at low-levels, maintaining modest
moisture advection. Rainfall is expected to be rather light,
similar to what we`re seeing today across the area, with amounts
typically under 1/10". The cloud cover and light precipitation
will also keep temps around 60 degrees, with the potential to be a
few degrees cooler if light rain showers are a bit more widespread
than anticipated. Low rain chances will hang around through
Thursday night as weak perturbations move through the flow aloft.
By Friday, we should see improving conditions as the shortwave
trough moves east and shortwave ridging returns. This should allow
a modest warm-up with dry weather anticipated heading into the
weekend. We are watching a rather strong trough setting course for
the west coast late in the week. The medium range models are
moving this trough across the Rockies over the weekend, backing
winds aloft to the southwest. The associated lee cyclogenesis will
enhance low-level winds and should promote increasing surface
moisture. The timing of this feature`s effects for West Central TX
is certainly up in the air at this time, but there is pretty
decent model consensus that a closed mid-level cyclone develops
and moves east-southeast into West TX around Sunday. This pattern
bears watching as it could provide the area with a good
opportunity for measurable rainfall. As usual, there is plenty of
time for things to change, but we`ll be watching!
Johnson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 40 66 43 66 45 / 5 0 0 0 10
San Angelo 40 66 43 66 45 / 5 0 0 5 20
Junction 41 68 41 66 45 / 10 5 0 0 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
18/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT KCDS MOST IF THE NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING. KLBB AND KPVW ARE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOW STRATUS AND FOG...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING THE RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...-SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS...MORE LIKELY
AT KLBB BETWEEN ROUGHLY 08 UTC AND 16 UTC. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SLOWLY SWING AROUND FROM E-SE
TO S-SW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST TX
PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS. THICK FOG HAS MADE IT TO MEMPHIS
AND DICKENS AND SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SLOWLY EXPANDING
WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER WEST IF THE HRRR IS
CORRECT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014/
AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR AT 00 UTC. HOWEVER...LOW STRATUS AND
FOG ARE PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS JUST TO THE EAST OF KCDS. THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD THIS EVENING...DROPPING KCDS
OUT OF VFR BY 01 UTC OR SO AND LIKELY IMPACTING KLBB AND KPVW
AFTER ABOUT 08 UTC. CEILING AND VSBY REDUCTIONS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...AS A STORM SYSTEM
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION...SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS BETWEEN ABOUT 06 UTC AND 16 UTC...WITH KLBB MOST LIKELY
TO SEE A RAIN SHOWER. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SLOWLY SWING AROUND FROM A EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE BACK EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH WAS SLOWLY EXITING THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF STEADY PRESSURE FALLS IN NEW MEXICO.
THESE PRESSURE DEFICITS WERE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THIS WAVE APPEARS
RESPECTABLE...HOWEVER REGIONAL METARS AND RADAR MOSAICS IN AZ AND
NM ARE NOT VERY INSPIRING FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WORSE...THIS WAVE IS SHOWN TO DAMPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DESPITE THIS DECAYING TREND...A GRADUAL UPTICK IN MOIST ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PULL SLIGHTLY HIGHER THETA-E AIR
NORTHWARD. AT THE SAME TIME HOWEVER THIS MOIST LAYER WILL BE ON THE
THIN SIDE.
EVEN WITH TOP-DOWN MOISTENING SHOWN BY THE MODELS BY SUN MORNING...
A NOTABLE DRY LAYER CENTERED AROUND 750MB MAY ROB MUCH OF THIS
MOISTURE AND YIELD ONLY SPRINKLES. CHOSE TO KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM 12-18Z WHERE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS LOOKS MOST FAVORABLE...BUT PRIOR TO THIS POPS WERE
SCALED BACK CONSIDERABLY IN COVERAGE DUE TO DELAYED MOISTENING.
OTHERWISE...THE AXIS OF THIS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE
DEPARTING THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AMPLE MID-LEVEL
DRYING. TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT OF INCREASING CLOUDS
AND LL MOISTURE. ON A RELATED NOTE...THE ADVECTION FOG THREAT
OVERNIGHT APPEARS LESS IN COVERAGE AND DURATION...BUT REMAINS VALID.
LONG TERM...
IN THE EXTENDED...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
EXTEND CLEAR INTO ALASKA TO WEST OF NOME AS LOW NEAR 47N150W REMAINS
A SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF ENERGY WILL
SHOOT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THOUGH A NOTABLE WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
QUITE WEAK AND ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF US BY THURSDAY AS A
RESPECTABLE AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RAIN CHANCES THAT ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT
WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. OVERALL...A FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEEK IS AHEAD WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING
NEXT WEEKEND/S SYSTEM WHETHER IT MAY BE A RAIN OR A WIND EVENT.
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST WIND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 37 58 32 61 34 / 10 10 0 0 0
TULIA 39 58 32 62 34 / 10 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 39 58 33 62 34 / 10 10 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 39 58 34 62 37 / 20 20 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 41 58 34 62 37 / 10 20 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 37 55 34 61 37 / 20 20 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 40 56 35 61 37 / 10 20 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 41 56 36 65 38 / 10 10 0 0 0
SPUR 42 56 37 64 38 / 10 20 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 43 55 39 64 39 / 10 20 10 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-043-044.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1045 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST TX
PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS. THICK FOG HAS MADE IT TO MEMPHIS
AND DICKENS AND SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SLOWLY EXPANDING
WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER WEST IF THE HRRR IS
CORRECT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014/
AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR AT 00 UTC. HOWEVER...LOW STRATUS AND
FOG ARE PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS JUST TO THE EAST OF KCDS. THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD THIS EVENING...DROPPING KCDS
OUT OF VFR BY 01 UTC OR SO AND LIKELY IMPACTING KLBB AND KPVW
AFTER ABOUT 08 UTC. CEILING AND VSBY REDUCTIONS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...AS A STORM SYSTEM
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION...SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS BETWEEN ABOUT 06 UTC AND 16 UTC...WITH KLBB MOST LIKELY
TO SEE A RAIN SHOWER. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SLOWLY SWING AROUND FROM A EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE BACK EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH WAS SLOWLY EXITING THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF STEADY PRESSURE FALLS IN NEW MEXICO.
THESE PRESSURE DEFICITS WERE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THIS WAVE APPEARS
RESPECTABLE...HOWEVER REGIONAL METARS AND RADAR MOSAICS IN AZ AND
NM ARE NOT VERY INSPIRING FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WORSE...THIS WAVE IS SHOWN TO DAMPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DESPITE THIS DECAYING TREND...A GRADUAL UPTICK IN MOIST ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PULL SLIGHTLY HIGHER THETA-E AIR
NORTHWARD. AT THE SAME TIME HOWEVER THIS MOIST LAYER WILL BE ON THE
THIN SIDE.
EVEN WITH TOP-DOWN MOISTENING SHOWN BY THE MODELS BY SUN MORNING...
A NOTABLE DRY LAYER CENTERED AROUND 750MB MAY ROB MUCH OF THIS
MOISTURE AND YIELD ONLY SPRINKLES. CHOSE TO KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM 12-18Z WHERE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS LOOKS MOST FAVORABLE...BUT PRIOR TO THIS POPS WERE
SCALED BACK CONSIDERABLY IN COVERAGE DUE TO DELAYED MOISTENING.
OTHERWISE...THE AXIS OF THIS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE
DEPARTING THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AMPLE MID-LEVEL
DRYING. TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT OF INCREASING CLOUDS
AND LL MOISTURE. ON A RELATED NOTE...THE ADVECTION FOG THREAT
OVERNIGHT APPEARS LESS IN COVERAGE AND DURATION...BUT REMAINS VALID.
LONG TERM...
IN THE EXTENDED...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
EXTEND CLEAR INTO ALASKA TO WEST OF NOME AS LOW NEAR 47N150W REMAINS
A SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF ENERGY WILL
SHOOT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THOUGH A NOTABLE WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
QUITE WEAK AND ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF US BY THURSDAY AS A
RESPECTABLE AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RAIN CHANCES THAT ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT
WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. OVERALL...A FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEEK IS AHEAD WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING
NEXT WEEKEND/S SYSTEM WHETHER IT MAY BE A RAIN OR A WIND EVENT.
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST WIND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 37 58 32 61 34 / 10 10 0 0 0
TULIA 39 58 32 62 34 / 10 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 39 58 33 62 34 / 10 10 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 39 58 34 62 37 / 20 20 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 41 58 34 62 37 / 10 20 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 37 55 34 61 37 / 20 20 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 40 56 35 61 37 / 10 20 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 41 56 36 65 38 / 10 10 0 0 0
SPUR 42 56 37 64 38 / 10 20 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 43 55 39 64 39 / 10 20 10 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-043-044.
&&
$$
33/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WELL DEFINED OVER NORTH DAKOTA...AND
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT...THEN
TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER STRONGER
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AREA...COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW TO MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE BAND...IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH THE
LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO PRODUCE A 4 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW OF MODERATE
TO STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
TIMING FOR THIS BAND WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES...TO AROUND 09Z TO 10Z MONDAY FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES. THE GFS/ECMWF
ARE THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW AND LIGHT SLEET MIX ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM IS MILDER WITH ITS
WARM LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE AND INDICATES SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
MIXING IN AT TIMES. THE RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO LEAN IN THIS DIRECTION
SOMEWHAT. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF AND WENT WITH
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT SLEET LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. KEPT CHANCES FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH...IN CASE
MILDER MODELS ARE CORRECT.
SHOULD SEE SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1.0 INCH IN MOST
AREAS...A BIT MORE IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND LESS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. HOURLY RATES OF 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED.
GIVEN TIMING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY...CONSIDERED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HELD OFF AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. EVENING
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER ONE...ESPECIALLY IF GFS LEANS TOWARD THE
NAM/RAP WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
STRONGER 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW MONDAY. PERHAPS THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT RAIN LATER IN THE DAY...AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ON MONDAY.
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
LINGERING WEAK LIFT AND LOW LEVEL RH MAY RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE MONDAY EVENING BEFORE LOWER LEVELS FURTHER DRY.
WL CONTINUE LOW POPS FOR MEASUREABLE -RA/-SN IN THE EVE FOR THE FAR
EAST...CLOSER TO DEPARTING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS WI LATER TUE INTO WED.
LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEAST FOR A TIME TUE/TUE NGT WITH
DELTA-T WITH DELTA-T INCREASING TO AROUND 6-7C. LOW LEVELS SLOWLY
WARM AT THIS TIME...AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN DISAGREEMENT ON
AMOUNT OF VEERING OF WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD. HENCE WL HOLD OFF ON
ANY -SN OR FLURRY MENTION AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES REMAINING
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES. 00Z ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN TRENDING TOWARD SLOWER
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING EAST COAST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN FACT...APPEARS SYSTEM NOW TRENDING TOWARD
CUTOFF STATUS AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE EAST COAST THRU THE
WEEKEND. OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS AND GEM TRENDING
IN THIS DIRECTION. AS A RESULT...UPSTREAM LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CONUS INCLUDING WRN GTLAKES WL PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER...AT
LEAST THRU SAT. RIDGE LOOKS TO FINALLY SUCCUMB TO INTENSIFYING SHORT
WAVE FROM THE WRN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. HENCE BEST
THREAT FOR LIQUID PRECIP SUN NGT INTO MON. 925H TEMPS WARM FROM
AROUND -4C ON WED TO FLUCTUATE BTWN 2 AND 6C FROM THU THRU SUN.
LACK OF SNOW COVER HELPS...HOWEVER PENDING CLOUDS...DAYTIME TEMPS
LIKELY TO PEAK MOSTLY IN THE 40S...BEGINNING FRI.
ONE MINOR CONCERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS WHETHER ANY LAKE EFFECT
WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
ECMWF SHOWING MORE FAVORABLE ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WED NGT
BUT THEN BECOMES MORE NLY THU AND EVENTUALLY BACKS TO THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. DELTA-T LOOKS MARGINAL WED NGT SO WL HOLD OFF ON ANY
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS.
LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT SLEET WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MADISON SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION
BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z MONDAY...AND THE EASTERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z
AND 10Z MONDAY. VISIBILITIES BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH CEILINGS IN THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY.
EXPECTING ABOUT A 4 TO 5 HOUR TIME PERIOD OF THIS LIGHT SNOW AND
LIGHT SLEET MIX...ENDING BY 14Z TO 15Z MONDAY. 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE
FORECAST AT MADISON...WITH 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH AT THE EASTERN SITES.
HOURLY RATES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT
0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN AS WELL...BUT
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE MIX OF PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THERE MAY BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH CEILINGS BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS ARE
ANTICIPATED. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LATER ON MONDAY WOULD BE A DUSTING AT
BEST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC LOW PRESSURE
TROF WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A LULL IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED LATER
MON INTO MON EVE AS THE SFC TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE TROF MON NGT AS SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HENCE STATUS QUO
ON ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVY THRU TUE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
$$
TONIGHT AND MONDAY/AVIATION...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/MARINE...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
221 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WAS WORKING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 07.12Z NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH THE 07.15Z RAP IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS WAVE BREAKING INTO TWO PARTS
AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE EITHER
DISSIPATES AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA OR MOVES
NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST BUT GOING SOUTH OF THE
AREA ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI. AS THIS OCCURS...THE LINE OF RADAR
RETURNS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT
SHOULD HELP TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. IT NOW APPEARS AS IF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION BAND WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SECOND AND STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE WAVE
WILL COME ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE MODERATE
PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER AS IT COMES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WEAK QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-300 MB LAYER.
ISENTROPICALLY...THERE SHOULD BE 2 TO 3 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE
OCCURRING ON THE 290K SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO
PRODUCE A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND OF 60 TO 90 PERCENT
CHANCES WORKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE BIG
CONCERN WITH THIS PRECIPITATION IS WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE. THE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM
LAYER ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES IN TO
PRODUCE EITHER TOTAL OR PARTIAL MELTING FOR EITHER SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR SLEET. EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD WIPE OUT THIS WARM
LAYER WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...THIS LIKELY WILL NOT CONTINUE VERY LONG BEFORE
THERE IS A LOSS OF ICE REINTRODUCING THE CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THE ICE IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF LONGER OVER
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AS LIGHT SNOW
UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE. FORTUNATELY...WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED...ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT ICING MAY OCCUR. THE OTHER THING
THAT MAY MITIGATE THE ICING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO RISE AND REACH FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 94. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT WILL SEND OUT A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN THE AWARENESS ALONG WITH A SHORT TERM
GRAPHIC CAST IMAGE.
A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MONDAY AND PRODUCE WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
SOME WEAK QG CONVERGENCE SHOULD OCCUR IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER
ALONG WITH ABOUT 1 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR AND WILL
START THE DAY WITH 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA. STILL A CONCERN AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ICE IN THE CLOUDS AND WILL START WITH A LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING
DRIZZLE GOING TO EITHER FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE BASED ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA...THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE INCREASING WITH VALUES OF 7 TO 10 KM/C BELOW 850 MB
BY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW LEVEL LAYER LOOKS TO BE SATURATED AND WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO RING OUT
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE STAYED WITH FLURRIES AS
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT CONCERNED THIS LAYER MAY
NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE TO BE IN THE CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. BOTH THE 07.12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE UP COMING WEEKEND...BUT IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAST THIS WILL OCCUR. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO
DO THIS THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR 07.12Z GEM. THE FASTER GFS THEN
ALLOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO COME OUT OF THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS MAY JUST BE RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2014
STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS PRODUCING RADAR ECHOES ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER NOT SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORCING AT THE MOMENT. DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3
HOURS THIS WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA AND WEAKEN. MEANWHILE THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA PRIMARILY THIS
EVENING...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL
START OUT AS A SNOW OR SLEET...AND THEN TRANSITION POSSIBLY TO A
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURES. ONE
CONCERN DURING THE LATTER IS THAT THE LIFT IS MAINLY ABOVE THE
SATURATED LOW LAYERS...SO WILL IT DEVELOP OR NOT. CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
451 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY WITH
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS. LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FRI INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES ERODING WITH TIME TO THE N/W
- SNOW / ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN AT WINTER-WX-ADVISORY LEVELS
- HEAVY RAIN OF 2-3 INCHES LENDING TO POSSIBLE FLOODING
- STRONG TO DAMAGING E-WINDS YIELDING WIND ADV HEADLINES
*/ SYNOPTICALLY...
PRESENT OFFSHORE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC CONUS BECOMES USURPED BY
AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE E-CONUS. ACROSS A REGION OF
FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / ATTENDANT DYNAMICS / STRONG FORCING AND
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT YIELDS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING LIFTING N INTO S NEW ENGLAND
BY EVENING. THE LOW BECOMES STALLED AND CUTOFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW UP
AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE ON NEARLY ALL SIDES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEK.
*/ HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...
INTERROGATING DEEPER...AS THE LOW DEEPENS...EXPECT DECENT LOW-LEVEL
TROWALING OF THE WARM-CONVEYOR-BELT BENEATH THE RRQ/LFQ OF
ATTENDANT UPPER-LEVEL JET AXES. COMBINATION OF THE CONVERGENT
LEADING NOSE OF ISENTROPIC UPSLOPE LENDING TO THE TIGHTENING OF
THE THERMAL GRADIENT AGAINST NEIGHBORING HIGH PRESSURE YIELDING
STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN A REGION OF MINOR -EPV
INSTABILITY BENEATH AFOREMENTIONED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT LIKELY TO
RESULT IN A ROUGHLY W-E BANDING SETUP OF HIGHER WSR-88D RETURNS
WITHIN A WIDESPREAD COMMA-SHAPED PRECIP FIELD ALONG THE
N-PERIPHERY OF THE H85 LOW WITH THE FRONT-END THUMP OF PRECIP
ANTICIPATED AROUND MIDDAY AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY EVENING.
WHEW...DEEP BREATH. FEEL THE HRRR SIMULATED RADAR TRENDS ARE
SHOWING THIS QUITE WELL.
WILL EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
WITH HEIGHT OF THE E/NE-WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN CONCURRENT WITH TIMING
OF HIGH TIDE CENTERED AROUND 1 PM BELIEVE SURGE ALONG WITH BUILDING
WAVE HEIGHTS /SEE THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/ WILL
RESULT IN POOR-DRAINAGE ISSUES FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES. ANTICIPATE
DRAINS TO BACK-UP BECOMING OVER-TOPPED RESULTING IN SUSCEPTIBLE LOW-
LYING AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS TO BECOME FLOODED.
AM ALSO CONCERNED FOR EVEN THOSE COMMUNITIES WITHIN THE COASTAL
PLAIN IN VICINITY OF RIVERS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE TIDE /I.E.
TAUNTON RIVER...LOWER CONNECTICUT/. COULD ALSO SEE SOME EXACERBATED
FLOOD ISSUES FOR THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. PWATS OF
1.25-INCHES FORECAST /ROUGHLY +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL/
AND FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED. GROUND IS PRETTY SOLID /IMPERVIOUS/ THUS EXPECT
MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO BECOME RUNOFF. MAJORITY OF MAINSTEM RIVERS
OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAIN...SO CONCERNS
LIE IN THE REALM OF URBAN / POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF
DRAINS ARE STILL LEAF-CLOGGED. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN IS WITHIN THE
METRO-AREA CORRIDORS...ESPECIALLY BOSTON-PROVIDENCE. MAY NEED TO
EXPAND THE WATCH ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NW MA PENDING THE TIMING AT
WHICH WINTRY-PRECIP TYPES TRANSITION TO RAIN.
*/ WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
OUTCOMES DEPENDENT ON THERMAL FIELDS ALOFT...WHERE AROUND H925-H85
BY MORNING CONDITIONS ARE WARMING CONSIDERABLY UP AGAINST COLDER AIR
AND HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N/W. A SW-NE FREEZING LINE AROUND NW-CT
INTO S NH INITIALLY MODIFIES NW AS THE LOW DEEPENS RESULTING IN THE
INCREASE OF THE SE WARM-MOIST-CONVEYOR-BELT. EXPECT THICKNESSES TO
GRADUALLY RISE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT INTO EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...AREAS BELOW FREEZING ERODE WITH INCREASING ONSHORE
E/NE-WINDS DURING THE MORNING /MORE ON THAT LATER/. UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH 09.0Z HIGH-RES MODELS DIFFERING IN TIMING OF EROSION.
AS MENTIONED IN PRIOR DISCUSSIONS...FOR AREAS THAT ARE WITHIN OR
ON THE CUSP OF BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY 1-2C...LINGERING AN
HOUR OR TWO MORE OR LESS CAN MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE WITH REGARDS
TO WINTER-WEATHER HEAD-LINES. H975-925 AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW IS
NOTABLY PERSISTENT AND STRONG OUT OF THE W AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES
TOWARDS S NEW ENGLAND. BUT NOT MUCH OF A N-COMPONENT NOR FROM
ARCTIC-SOURCE REGIONS...SO BELIEVE THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO MAINTAIN
/ PERSIST COLD AIR OVER THE REGION AGAINST STRONG ONSHORE E-FLOW.
WILL GO CLOSE TO THE NEAR-TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WHILE INCORPORATING
THE WRF-NMM WITH REGARDS TO THERMAL FIELDS...WHICH ARE HANDLING THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECENTLY. PREFERENCE TO THE 09.0Z ECMWF IS ALSO
GIVEN ESPECIALLY WHEN EVALUATING H100-H85 THICKNESSES. ONLY WRF-ARW
AND RAP LEAN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE OVER ALL OTHERS.
ALSO WILL GO WITH A TOP-DOWN APPROACH TOWARDS PRECIPITATION-TYPE
THAT INCORPORATES THE INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE S WITHIN OR
ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE REGION.
SO OVERALL...EXPECTING THE GRADUAL EROSION OF THE COASTAL-FRONT WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE E-FLOW. PUSH OF WARMER AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING LOW WILL RESULT IN PRECIP-TYPE TRANSITION FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO A SLEET / FREEZING RAIN MIX. THIS HAS SUBSEQUENTLY BUMPED DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RESULTING IN A RANGE OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS NW MA.
MOST OF THE REGION CHANGES OVER TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY
WITH ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES CONTINUALLY UNDER
THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN.
HAVE DROPPED WINTER-STORM WATCHES AND REPLACED WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. HAVE TRIMMED THE EASTERN-EXTENT WITH EROSION OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THE SURGANCE OF WARMER AIR ONSHORE. AGAIN...THE
THERMAL FIELDS DISCUSSION ABOVE GIVE AN INDICATION OF PREFERRED
MODEL GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES DROP MAINLY
AROUND THE MIDDAY HOURS.
MID-LEVEL DRY-SLOT WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING OCCLUSION BEGINNING
TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD RESULT IN A LULL OF PRECIPITATION AS WE GO
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
*/ STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...
NOTING E-WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL WILL BE AROUND 55 MPH AROUND THE MIDDAY
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS...THE PRESENCE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT LENDING TO
AN INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO CONSIDER A
HIGH WIND WARNING. THIS DESPITE WARMER AIR WIGGLING ITS WAY UP FROM
THE S AT THE SURFACE...AND A WARMER OCEAN /THOUGH NOW AROUND THE LOW-
50S/. BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL BE LIMITED. HIGH-END WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTS EXCEEDING
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THUS WENT WITH THE WIND ADVISORY.
COULD PRECIPITATION-DRAG PROCESSES BRING FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE? YES...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE MIX WHICH IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR SE-WATERS ADJACENT TO
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE GONE WITH THE HEADLINES THAT CONVEY THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE.
*/ COASTAL FLOODING...
SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU AS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY EXITS
* IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI INTO THIS WEEKEND
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...FAVORED A CONSENSUS BLEND TO UPDATE
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS WAS TO SMOOTH OVER THE MINOR
DIFFERENCES INTO FRIDAY...AS WELL AS MINIMIZE ERROR AFTER THAT
POINT.
CLOSED LOW WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND...AND 09/00Z GUIDANCE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FINALLY MOVING OUT TO SEA SATURDAY NIGHT. ONE OF THE PRIMARY
ISSUES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOW MUCH WILL BE LEFTOVER TO US IN
GENERATING PRECIPITATION IS ANOTHER MATTER. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF A GRADUAL DRYING OUT PROCESS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
4Z UPDATE...
TOWARDS 12Z...
MIX OF MVFR-IFR CIGS WITH IFR VSBYS WITH ANY -SN. OTHERWISE
RUNWAYS BECOMING ICY WITH FZDZ. INCREASING NE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES BY MORNING.
TUESDAY...
STRONG E WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR AND AREAS OF LIFR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NEAR COAST. EAST WINDS 40 KT OR GREATER LIKELY ACROSS
EASTERN MA/S COASTAL RI. LOW RISK OF 50 KT OVER OUTER CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET...POSSIBLE OUTER CAPE ANN. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TOWARD EVENING.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOWERED CIGS / VSBYS WITH -SN LIKELY MIXING WITH OR OVER TO FZDZ.
SHOULD SEE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS THOUGH
TIMING IS NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN. COULD STILL SEE IMPACTS DURING
THE MORNING PUSH.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FZDZ LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HR OR TWO. WILL SEE A WINTRY
MIX AS WE GO INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW
AND SLEET BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR IN
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR IN ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
11 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR OUTER S COASTAL WATERS WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN REACHING CRITERIA. MAINTAINING STORM
WATCHES ELSEWHERE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...EXCEPT ISSUING GALE
WARNINGS FOR BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.
TONIGHT...EXPECT E-NE WIND TO INCREASE AS COASTAL LOW MOVES
NORTH OVERNIGHT. GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY RETURNING TO SOUTHERN
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS ALSO BUILD...AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS BY DAYBREAK.
TUESDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOWARD
LONG ISLAND DURING THE DAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD E GALES WITH AREAS
OF STORM FORCE GUSTS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TUE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEAS RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-20 FT EASTERN MA WATERS.
HEAVY RAIN LOWERS VSBY...ESPECIALLY LATE TUE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OCEAN-EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY
DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WEST/SOUTHWEST GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT AS WELL. ALSO SHOULD SEE LEFTOVER SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS
SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW 5 FT ACROSS ALL BUT THE OUTERMOST
COASTAL WATERS FRI EVENING...THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS ALL WATERS SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
REGION THROUGH WED MORNING. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR SIGNIFICANT URBAN
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY NEAR I-95 CORRIDOR FROM PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON
WHICH INCLUDES MORE FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF NEW BEDFORD...FALL RIVER
AND PEABODY.
LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE BRINGS LOWER CT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM TO
ACTION STAGE...WHICH IS PRIMARILY BASED ON SURGE OF 2 FT INTO
LOWER CT RIVER. WE MAY ALSO SEE SIMILAR SURGE ALONG PAWCATUCK
RIVER NEAR WESTERLY RI WHICH COULD BRING RISES SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN MA
COAST FOR THE TUESDAY MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. APPEARS WINDS/SEAS
WILL BE RAMPING UP AS THE TUE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. THIS A
RESULT OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LIFTING
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOP TOWARDS THE
TUE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. STORM SURGE GUIDANCE APPEARS SLOW TO CATCH
ON...SO INCREASED IT SOME AND EXPECT A 2+ FOOT STORM SURGE DURING
THE HIGH TIDE. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG WITH SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ACROSS THE EASTERN MA
COAST. SEAS MAY EVENTUALLY COME UP TO 20 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN
WATERS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE HIGH TIDE. THAT
IS WHY WE EXPECT MAINLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AS OPPOSED TO A
MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT.
WERE NOT REALLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
HIGH TIDES CAUSING PROBLEMS. PRESSURE GRADIENT/WINDS WEAKEN AND
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TO LOWER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-019>024.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ005>007-011>022-024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ005-006-011-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ003-004-009-010-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ002-008.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-
003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ231>234-251.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
420 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHILE MANY
VALLEY AND EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE A TRANSITION OF A WINTRY MIX TO
RAIN...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE CATSKILLS
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH A MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN
THESE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH THE STORM REMAINING CLOSE TO THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EST...A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THIS LOW IS STARTING TO LIFT
NORTHWARD...AND 3 HR PRESSURE FALLS OF AROUND 5 MBS ARE OCCURRING
OFF THE DELMARVA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIVING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BE CAPTURING THE SFC WAVE...AND CAUSING IT TO BASICALLY STALL
JUST OFF THE NEW JERSEY SHORE TODAY.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS IS ADVECTING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION. THE LATEST REGIONAL
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS A STEADY BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP OVER
NJ...AND THIS PRECIP IS QUICKLY ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.
IN ADVANCE OF THIS STEADY PRECIP...SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/MIST IS OCCURRING...AS THE LOW LEVELS ARE STARTING TO
MOISTEN UP IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SLUG OF PRECIP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AS A WARM NOSE BETWEEN 850 AND 925
HPA WILL BE IN PLACE. AS THIS PRECIP ADVANCES FURTHER NORTH...IT
LOOKS TO BE SNOW ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE A
SNOW/SLEET MIX AS IT REACHES THE CAPITAL REGION AND TACONICS.
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN SNOW VS. WINTRY MIX VS. RAIN.
THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS/HELDERBERGS AND POINTS WESTWARD THIS MORNING...BUT ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW HOURS FOR
THE HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND NW CT...BEFORE PRECIP CHANGES TO
A PLAIN RAIN. SFC TEMPS LOOK TO NUDGE JUST ABOVE FREEZING BY THE
MID MORNING FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND LATE MORNING HOURS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. FURTHER NORTH...THE PRECIP WILL EXPAND INTO
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS BY THE EARLY AFTN HOURS. PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SNOW FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...BUT
WILL LIKELY MIX FOR THE SARATOGA/GLENS FALLS AREA. EVEN UP
THERE...A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...AS WARM AIR...BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE AREA.
FURTHER EAST...THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX FOR SOUTHERN
VT/BERKSHIRES AS WELL...EVEN ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN...AS WARM
AIR ALOFT OF NEARLY 3 DEGREES C MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
SOME SNOW/SLEET WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER...BUT
THE CHANGEOVER WILL PREVENT WARNING LEVEL SNOW FROM OCCURRING. SOME
STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN GREENS...TACONICS AND
BERKSHIRES...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE FULL
BRUNT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN DUE TO STABLE LOW LEVELS...BUT SOME GUSTS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS THAT CHANNEL E-SE FLOW WELL. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS WIND THREAT IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.
AS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING...STEADY PRECIP WILL START TO SHUT OFF ACROSS OUR
AREA. THE SFC LOW WILL BE MEANDERING OVER THE NYC/LONG ISLAND
AREA...AND THE 500 HPA LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE DELMARVA
AREA. AS A RESULT...SOME ADDITIONAL ON AND OFF PRECIP WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE PVA/CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
STEADY OR HEAVY. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS
ALOFT...AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A LACK OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE
CLOUDS...AS THE BEST DEEPER AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS SHIFT AWAY FROM
THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY
OCCUR...ALONG WITH SOME BURSTS OF SNOW/RAIN/SLEET AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION.
BECAUSE OF ALL OF THIS...WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE NOT ISSUED
OUTSIDE THE CATSKILLS/MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS
BECAUSE WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL /7 INCHES IN 12 HOURS OR 9 INCHES
IN 24 HOURS/ IS NOT EXPECTED. STILL...A WINTRY MIX...EVEN THOUGH
IT WILL GO OVER TO RAIN...WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IN THE
CAPITAL REGION/GLENS FALLS AND SARATOGA AREAS/BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN
VT/...AND THIS IS WHY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THESE AREAS WILL VARY
BASED ON ELEVATION...WITH JUST A FEW INCHES IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. JUST A COATING TO
AN INCH OF SNOW/SLEET/ICE IS EXPECTED FOR THE POUGHKEEPSIE/KINGSTON
AREA AND NW CT...AS PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY GO OVER TO RAIN THERE
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...AS
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOOD CONCERNS. SEE OUR HYDRO
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS THREAT.
MEANWHILE... 6 TO 12 INCHES LOOK TO ACCUMULATE IN THE
CATSKILLS...HELDERBERGS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND
ADIRONDACKS. EVEN IN THESE AREAS...SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...AND VALLEYS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
CATSKILLS IN THE GREENE COUNTY...AND IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SRN ADIRONDACKS OF WARREN COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL BE RATHER
WET...AND THIS MAY MAKE FOR SOME POWER OUTAGES/DOWNED TREE
LIMBS...ESP CONSIDERING THAT STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
WHILE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHAT WAVE/S/ WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION...MOISTURE WILL WRAP IN OFF THE ATLANTIC TO KEEP THE
HIGH PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST LOCATIONS WILL BE
ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTHWARD. AS FOR THERMAL
PROFILES...WE WILL BE COOLING DOWN THE COLUMN WHERE MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS FOR THE
SPECIFIC...
WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE POINT TOWARD A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
REMAINS JUST OFF THE JERSEY SHORE. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HIGHER
THETA-E /TROWAL/ BACK INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES REMAIN RATHER HIGH OF 3-4 G/KG SO
WHERE IT DOES SNOW...WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.
PER THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND 00Z ECMWF...THIS SEEMS TO LINE
UP FOR OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING WILL
TAKE PLACE AS PER CSTAR RESEARCH...THESE UPPER LOWS ARE QUITE
PROBLEMATIC WITH PROVIDING SPECIFICS WHERE THE HEAVIER QPF WILL FALL.
THURSDAY...AS THE LOW FILLS AND FURTHER REDUCES THE
BAROCLINICITY...THE PRECIP INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH. SO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH
JUST A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
EASTWARD...ITS INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHC-SCT SNOW PROBABILITIES WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING.
WE WILL USE A BLENDED APPROACH TO THE MOS TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE
FAIRLY CLOSE IN VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE LOST ITS BAROCLINICITY BY
THEN RESULTING IN MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST
AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK IN FROM THE
WEST...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS WE SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR A PASSING
SNOW SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING.
IT LOOKS LIKE DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY PREVAIL FOR LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY THE CUT-OFF LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. THE ECMWF IS RATHER SLOW
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE CUT-OFF...LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW UNTIL
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN BY LATE
SATURDAY. AGAIN...THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON CLOUD COVER BUT WE
ARE EXPECTING PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE RISING UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS...SURFACE TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO EXPECTED SHALLOW MIXING THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TRANQUIL WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST FOR MON NT AND TUE. WILL ADD SLIGHT CHC POPS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHETHER A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM YET AGAIN...ALBEIT IN
A WEAKER STATE THAN THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION
TYPES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THROUGH 12Z/TUE...A SOLID STRATUS CLOUD DECK HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD
THE TAF SITES. SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIP HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AT
KPSF...WHERE IFR CIGS ARE PRESENT. WE EXPECT MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CIGS...AT KPSF THROUGH 12Z/TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...FOR CIGS...TO PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z/TUE. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z/TUE...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT
RULE OUT A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...ESP BETWEEN 10Z-12Z/TUE.
AFTER 12Z/TUE...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL STORM WILL DEVELOP
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SHORTLY 12Z/TUE AT
KPOU...TO MID MORNING AT KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
TO IFR/LIFR SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP COMMENCES.
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
START AT KPOU...CHANGING TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AT KALB/KPSF/KGFL AROUND 12Z-14Z/TUE...THEN QUICKLY CHANGE
TO A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUAL RAIN BY NOON
AT KALB/KPSF. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL THE FALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TUE NT...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET. A WINTRY MIX
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KGFL BEFORE
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN AND/OR SLEET AFTER 23Z/TUE.
THE PRECIP TYPE FORECASTS AND TIMING ARE LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME...AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
UNCERTAIN. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY SCOUR OUT QUICKER THAN
ANTICIPATED OR LINGER LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD
IMPACT WHEN PRECIP TYPE TRANSITIONS OCCUR.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE N-NE AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS WITH GUST NEAR OR EXCEEDING 20 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT...DUTCHESS COUNTY NEW YORK AND EASTERN ULSTER COUNTY
NEW YORK...FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FOR NORTHWESTERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL PRIMARY AS SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX. MEANWHILE...ACROSS SOUTHERN AND VALLEY AREAS...PRECIP WILL
BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX AND TRANSITION TO RAIN.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT VALUES WILL BE 0.50 OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS TO NEARLY 2.00 INCHES OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH
MUCH OF THIS FALLING AS RAINFALL OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY
DURING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN PRECIP
WILL BE HEAVIEST. THIS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE
GROUND IS FROZEN. RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE LIKELY...AND
MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AND
IT/S TRIBUTARIES IN NW CT.
IN ADDITION...THE STRONG COASTAL LOW IS ALLOWING FOR SOME TIDAL
FLOODING ALONG COASTAL AREAS...AND THIS COULD CAUSE A BACKUP OF
WATER ON THE HUDSON RIVER. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE IN THE POUGHKEEPSIE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT IN AREAS THAT SEE THE HEAVIEST LIQUID PRECIP TODAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO RECEDE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>040-042-043-047-048-051-058-063-082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ041-
049-050-052>054-059>061-083-084.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ064>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ064>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM APPROACHES OUR AREA....A
LONG DURATION PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT LINGERING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS CURRENTLY OVER THE
BERKSHIRES. THE LOW LEVELS ARE STARTING TO MOISTEN UP DUE TO A
FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THERE HASN/T BEEN ANY
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA JUST YET...BUT WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE
FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
TRUE FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND
CATSKILLS...THANKS TO SOME UPSLOPE FLOW. ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE
LOOKS FAIRLY SPOTTY...AND MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY.
THE 02Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS STEADY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW WILL BE APPROACHING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BETWEEN 4 AND 6
AM. ACROSS THESE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...PRECIP LOOKS TO BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY START
TO TRANSITION MORE TOWARDS THE WINTRY MIX OR EVEN PLAIN RAIN AS LOW
LEVEL TEMPS RISE...AND A WARM NOSE STARTS TO DEVELOP AT 925 HPA.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S...AND MAY EVEN START TO RISE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERY COMPLEX WINTER STORM WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE REGION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE UPGRADED THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TO WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 14
INCHES...ALONG WITH SOME MIXED PCPN POSSIBLE. THE LOWEST TERRAIN
AREAS IN THESE REGIONS MAY NOT EXCEED 7 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO THE
MIXING OF PCPN WITH SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN...BUT ON
AVERAGE MOST AREAS WILL GET HEAVY SNOW.
DUE TO THE EXTREMELY TIGHT GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THE MINOR TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THAT OCCUR BETWEEN
EACH MODEL...AND EVEN BETWEEN DIFFERENT RUNS OF THE SAME MODEL...
HAVE DECIDED THAT THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO MAKE A
DECISION BETWEEN A WARNING OR AN ADVISORY FOR A LARGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THAT INCLUDES THE SARATOGA REGION...CAPITAL DISTRICT...
THE UPPER PART OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY. THIS WAS COORDINATED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES TO THE EAST WHO ALSO KEPT ADJOINING PARTS OF
THEIR FORECAST AREAS IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH.
FOR NOW HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 3 TO 10 INCHES IN THE WATCH
AREA...WITH MOST AREAS GENERALLY FORECAST TO GET 7 INCHES OR LESS...
EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.
MOST OF THE PCPN WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY...WITH A LARGE DRY SLOT
SURGING NORTHWARD AND CUTTING OFF THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PCPN
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY PARKING ITSELF OVER EASTERN NY...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS WELL. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MIXED PCPN WEDNESDAY...BUT ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 30 TO 40. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 30S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT 20 TO 30.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL
BE CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE LOST ITS BAROCLINICITY BY THEN RESULTING IN MAINLY SCATTERED TO
LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE CORE MOVING
INTO NEW ENGLAND. OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK IN FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AS
WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE VALLEYS FOR FRIDAY. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR A PASSING SNOW
SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW PERSISTING.
IT LOOKS LIKE DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY PREVAIL FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY THE CUT-OFF LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. THE ECMWF IS RATHER SLOW
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE CUT-OFF LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW UNTIL
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN BY LATE
SATURDAY. AGAIN...THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON CLOUD COVER BUT WE
ARE EXPECTING PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DESPITE RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS...SURFACE TEMPS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO EXPECTED SHALLOW MIXING
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TRANQUIL WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION
TYPES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THROUGH 12Z/TUE...A SOLID STRATUS CLOUD DECK HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD
THE TAF SITES. SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIP HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AT
KPSF...WHERE IFR CIGS ARE PRESENT. WE EXPECT MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CIGS...AT KPSF THROUGH 12Z/TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...FOR CIGS...TO PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z/TUE. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z/TUE...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT
RULE OUT A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...ESP BETWEEN 10Z-12Z/TUE.
AFTER 12Z/TUE...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL STORM WILL DEVELOP
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SHORTLY 12Z/TUE AT
KPOU...TO MID MORNING AT KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
TO IFR/LIFR SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP COMMENCES.
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
START AT KPOU...CHANGING TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AT KALB/KPSF/KGFL AROUND 12Z-14Z/TUE...THEN QUICKLY CHANGE
TO A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUAL RAIN BY NOON
AT KALB/KPSF. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL THE FALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TUE NT...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET. A WINTRY MIX
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KGFL BEFORE
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN AND/OR SLEET AFTER 23Z/TUE.
THE PRECIP TYPE FORECASTS AND TIMING ARE LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME...AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
UNCERTAIN. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY SCOUR OUT QUICKER THAN
ANTICIPATED OR LINGER LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD
IMPACT WHEN PRECIP TYPE TRANSITIONS OCCUR.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE N-NE AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS WITH GUST NEAR OR EXCEEDING 20 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN...SLEET.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH FOR DUTCHESS AND EASTERN ULSTER COUNTIES ALONG WITH
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF ARE IN THE FORECAST
WITH MAINLY RAIN.
A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOR NORTHWESTERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL PRIMARY AS SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX.
MEANWHILE...ACROSS SOUTHERN AND VALLEY AREAS...PRECIP WILL BEGIN
AS A PERIOD OF SNOW AND TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN RAIN.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT VALUES WILL BE 0.75 OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS TO ABOUT 2 INCHES OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH MUCH
OF THIS FALLING AS RAINFALL OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...THERE WILL BE
A LOT OF RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING WHICH PRECIP WILL BE HEAVIEST. THIS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WHERE THE GROUND IS FROZEN. RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS
ARE LIKELY...AND MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER AND IT/S TRIBUTARIES IN NW CT. AS A RESULT...A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER...SUCH AS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TACONICS...BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME. PART OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO QUESTIONS
REMAINING OF HOW LONG PRECIP WILL BE WINTRY VS PLAIN RAINFALL. WHEN
THE EXACT DURATION OF PRECIP TYPES BECOME MORE CLEAR...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR CTZ001-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-048-051-058-
063-082.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ041-049-050-052>054-059>061-083-
084.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR NYZ064>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ064>066.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1229 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY IN THE
FORECAST FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE IFR CIGS. KPBI HAS ALREADY BECOME
BKN006 BUT FOR NOW KEPT ALL OTHER TERMINALS AT BKN010-015 BUT MAY
HAVE TO AMEND IF THE LOWER CIGS PAN OUT. HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS AT MVFR BEFORE CLEARING OUT AT MID DAY.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE W-NW AT 8-10KT BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KT AT A FEW LOCATIONS.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014/
UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SOME ADJUSTMENTS T
POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR TONIGHT.
ALSO, THE SREF IS SHOWING THE BEST CHANCES OF FOG TO BE FURTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. IT IS ALSO SHOWING THAT IT IS
POSSIBLE THE BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE METRO AREAS MAY ALSO HAVE SOME
CHANCE OF SEEING FOG IN THE MORNING. BUT, HAVE KEPT IT OUT OF
THOSE AREAS FOR NOW, WITH THE INTERIOR BEING THE MAIN AREA
IMPACTED BY PATCHY FOG. HOWEVER, THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS
ALSO SHOWING THE METRO AREAS BEING IMPACTED WITH FOG, INCLUDING
THE PALM BEACH AREA. SO, THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN WITH THE
NEXT UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WITH
LIGHT NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN GFS/NAM AND HRRR/RAP ON REGARD TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. WITH THE LOW CONFIDENCE INCLUDED VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW
AND SCT LOW CLOUDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A
SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. IN ADDITION
THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.
AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS THERE IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT WITH A RE-ENFORCING
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR AND LINGERING MOISTURE COULD RESULT
IN FOG ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOST RECENT
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF FOG EARLY TUESDAY AND IS
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.
AS NOTED EARLIER...THE COMBINATION OF A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WELL ESTABLISHED NORTHEAST FETCH ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINAS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE LONG PERIOD
NORHTHEASTERLY SWELL THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY TODAY. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO ENTER THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
WITH SURF HEIGHTS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 10 FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
PREVAILING.
MARINE...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LONG PERIOD NORHTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
TODAY THEN CONTINUE TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. WINDS
ACROSS THE ALTANTIC WATERS COULD REACH THE 20-22 KNOT RANGE LATER
ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS TO
ADVISORY LEVELS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT ALL ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1204 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.UPDATE...
843 PM CST
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MUCH OF THE FOG AS VISIBILITY HAS
IMPROVED MARKEDLY FROM EARLIER. ALSO ADJUSTED POP/WEATHER FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW COMBO CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW PRIOR TO ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS EVENING...WITH OCCLUDED COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AS OF 02Z/8 PM CST.
INTRUSION OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR HAS HELPED ERODE MUCH OF
THE FOG AND LOWEST CLOUD BASES BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS HAVE REMOVED
FOG FROM FORECAST EXCEPT FOR NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE LAKE.
ALOFT...ROBUST MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION WAS NEARLY OVERHEAD
PER CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z RAOB ANALYSIS...AND IS NI
THE PROCESS OF FORMING A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ALONG ITS NORTHERN/EASTERN FLANKS...GENERALLY
THE NORTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE WFO LOT CWA. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN
AND ILX SHOW MOISTURE GENERALLY BELOW 800-700 MB AND WITH CLOUD
BEARING LAYER MIN TEMPS LESS THAN -10 C...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WITH LACK OF ICE NUCLEATION. DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER NORTH (GRB SOUNDING) WAS ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER
PRECIPITATION ELEMENTS CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST WI WAS RESULTING IN WET SNOW. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE
WITH THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND A SLOW COOLING OF THE COLUMN IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO MIX/CHANGE TO A
LITTLE WET SNOW WHERE IT FALLS A LITTLE STEADIER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST IL THROUGH A LITTLE PAST MIDNIGHT AND INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AND
LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIP SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OTHER THAN A FEW SLUSHY TENTHS PERHAPS IN ISOLATED AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
317 PM CST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW ALL ARE LIKELY
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS TWO UPPER CIRCULATIONS THAT WILL
CROSS THE AREA...AND MODEL VORTICITY FIELDS ALOFT AND RH FIELDS AT
LOWER LEVELS ALL SUPPORT THE IDEA OF PATCHY AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON MOST AREAS ARE IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S...AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH AS COLDER AIR
APPROACHES...SO LITTLE IF ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE.
BY MORNING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LONGWAVE IS WELL TO OUR EAST...AND
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA AS WELL. ONLY AT LOW
LEVELS DO RH FIELDS SUGGEST CONTINUED SATURATION...SO WILL TREND
POPS DOWNWARD TO BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS BY DAYBREAK EXCEPT
DOWNWIND FROM THE LAKE IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AT THE END OF A
NORTHWEST FETCH. EVEN THAT AREA APPEARS TO DRY OUT BY LATE
TOMORROW AS WINDS CONTINUE VEERING NORTHEASTERLY AND LOW LEVELS
DRY CONSIDERABLY.
CLOUDINESS PERSISTS SOUTH OF THE LAKE LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...BUT AREAS WEST CLEAR OUT A BIT. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR A FEW
DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS BETWEEN MORE
CLEAR AND MORE OVERCAST AREAS. WEDNESDAY CONTINUES COOL...BUT NOT
UNSEASONABLY SO...WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.
LENNING
&&
.LONG TERM...
317 PM CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY THE WEEKEND DO NOT LOOK
TOO BAD AT ALL FOR MID DECEMBER. COMPARED TO LAST MONTH...THE
STRETCH OF DAYS STARTING ON FRIDAY THE 12TH LOOKS TO BE FROM 10 TO
20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SAME PERIOD FROM LAST MONTH. SO THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER APPEAR TO BE SWAPPED THIS
YEAR.
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE THOUGH NOT PERFECT AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH NOW OVERHEAD WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND ALLOW
A BROAD RIDGE FROM THE SFC TO UPPER LEVELS TAKE ITS PLACE. THIS
RIDGING WITH ITS DRY AND MILD WEATHER APPEARS TO PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEKEND WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST.
BY EARLY SUNDAY MODELS START TO SUGGEST A RETURN OF BETTER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WEST OF
THE RIDGE. CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THIS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE LOCAL AREA IS LOW...SO HAVE ELECTED TO INCLUDE INCREASED
POPS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT ALL IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW END MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME INTERMITTENT IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS GRADUALLY RISE BUT REMAIN
MVFR INTO THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* -DZ THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SCATTERED -RASN SHOWERS PRIOR TO 09
OR 10Z. BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE.
* WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND NORTH INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MIX OF IFR AND LOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH IS COMPLICATING FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT THAT LOW
MVFR WILL TAKE OVER AS THE MAIN CIG HEIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME VARIABILITY BETWEEN MVFR/IFR PRIOR TO THAT. DRIZZLE
APPEARS TO BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BUT WILL BE CONTINUING FOR A
FEW HOURS. A PASSING UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME -RASN
SHOWERS BUT COVERAGE OF THESE IS ALSO DECLINING. WINDS WILL BE
TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH GYY STARTING TO SEE
SOME GUSTS AS TRAJECTORY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INCREASES.
CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY
THE EVENING FOR MOST AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL RISING OF
BASES BUT THINGS MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE ABOVE 2000 FT BEFORE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF INCREASES WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTMENT. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST OR EVEN DUE NORTH INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT DEVELOPING. GYY MAY SEE
GUSTS INTO THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 20S AS THE FETCH DOWN LAKE
MICHIGAN INCREASES. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND
MAY IMPACT GYY GIVEN THE NORTH WIND BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
MAY BE JUST TO THE EAST. HAVE ADDED VCSH MENTION FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. CIGS MAY TRY TO SCATTER FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE EVENING
BUT A NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER OFF THE LAKE
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO
AREA...WITH STEADIER CIGS OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
AFTERNOON. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME RISING OF CIG
BASES THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW QUICKLY IT MAY
OCCUR. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN -DZ PERSISTING WITH A DECREASE IN -RASN
SHOWERS INTO EARLY MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR. NORTH WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS.
SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN. SOUTH WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
227 PM CST
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOWS
COLD FRONT AND THEN THEY TURN NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
MINNESOTA. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WITH 30 KT
NORTH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE TOMORROW. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH APPROACHES BUT LARGE WAVES WILL LINGER IN THE NSH ZONES.
HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THE HAZARDOUS WAVES WILL
LINGER...BUT HAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AS THE HIGH MOVES DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...6 AM TUESDAY TO 9
PM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...9 AM TUESDAY TO 3
PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1112 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
Cold front has swept east of the state early this evening along
with most of the light rain and drizzle. Low level flow has now
shifted into the northwest and as a result, the cloud band that
was shifting out of far west central Illinois this evening has
been replaced by another band of clouds that was tracking
southeast out of Iowa this afternoon and will be with us well
into the morning hours of Tuesday. Not much in the way of precip
over Iowa early this evening with the only snow and rain reports
well to our north over far southern Wisconsin and northern IL.
Most of the short term models suggest that light precip will remain
to our north tonight. Current forecast has conditions well in hand
for this evening and the overnight hours. Other than some minor
wording adjustments in the overnight portion of the forecast, no
other changes needed to the current ZFP. Will have the update out
by 900 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
Cold front is pushing across central Illinois early this afternoon,
located just west of Peoria and Springfield as of 2 pm. Extensive
low cloud deck has been prevailing over the forecast area, with some
localized dense fog along and north of the I-74 corridor. Surface
observations showing visibilities and ceilings lifting behind the
front, and the back edge of the cloudiness covered about the eastern
third of Missouri. Well defined upper circulation evident on water
vapor imagery over northeast Iowa, and this is producing some light
rain and snow upstream from us.
Main question for this part of the forecast is how much clearing
will manage to take place. Lower clouds extend all the way back into
southern North Dakota. RAP model guidance and current trajectories
would suggest some clearing may take place over the far southwest
parts of the forecast area for a short period, but a secondary surge
of clouds is expected as the broad upper trough surrounding the
aforementioned circulation swings through the Midwest this evening.
Have kept the sky forecast on the pessimistic side and kept cloudy
skies in the grids for tonight. Much of the associated precipitation
should be just to our north, but will include some slight chance
PoP`s for the northeast CWA for this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
As the low pressure area weakens and gets absorbed into an east
coast system, a high pressure ridges will build into the area. This
ridge will dominate the weather over the area through Wednesday and
beyond. Some concern with lower level moisture remaining trapped
under the ridge Tue through Wed, so have increased cloud cover to go
mostly cloudy through Wed. As the center of the high pressure drops
south into the southern Miss river valley, the ridge will remain
over the area with dry weather through Thursday, the rest of the
week and into the weekend. The area will also remain dominated by
mid level cyclonic flow through the end of the week. Then mid level
ridging, that was building in the plains, will begin to dominate the
region for the weekend. Late in the weekend, the ridging will begin
to push east and this will allow a frontal system to move into the
area and bring rain to the region for Sun night and Monday.
With high pressure dropping into the area and cyclonic flow, temps
will remain cool for the next couple of days. But then as the high
pressure settles south and mid level ridging builds, temps will
begin to warm again. By the weekend, temps will warm to above
normal, with 50s expected Sat and Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
MVFR cigs are expected thru Tuesday evening. A rather large storm
system will continue to track off to our east tonight but the
expansive cloud cover associated with the system will linger over
our area at least thru 00z tomorrow. Most of the rain associated
with the system`s cold front was well off to our east late this
evening but the threat for some spotty drizzle will remain over
parts of the area as a secondary upper level wave drifts southeast
thru the region overnight. Based on upstream observations, we look
for cigs to range from 1200 to 2000 feet late tonight thru the
morning hours of Tuesday, before we see a gradual improvement
during the afternoon to between 2000-3000 feet.
Not very confident at this point, at least based on the latest
forecast soundings for later tomorrow as a rather strong low level
inversion is forecast to develop which will effectively trap the
low level moisture. Boundary layer winds are forecast to be more
from a north-northeast direction tomorrow which is not a very good
direction for clearing skies in our area. Surface winds will be
from the northwest to north at 8 to 14 kts tonight, and more from
a northerly direction on Tuesday at 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1140 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO TUESDAY. AFTERWARD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN
MONDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
0130Z UPDATE...BASED ON TRENDS THUS FAR THIS EVENING AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING ON THE OVERNIGHT WEATHER. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
INCREASE POPS LATE THIS EVENING ON AVERAGE OF 20 PERCENT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SECOND WAVE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE
MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LATEST RUNS SHOW HRRR AND SREF
HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS CONSIDERABLY AFTER 06Z...WHICH WILL BE
POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO LEFT POPS AS IS AFTER THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z AND FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BECAUSE IF TEMPS
PLUMMET MAY HAVE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS WHICH COULD CAUSE
SLICK/ICY ROADS. MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN FORECAST FOR CWA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE...BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED REGARDLESS FOR POTENTIAL
NEED FOR UPDATES AND/OR STATEMENTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TONIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING. MAV MOS GIVES VERY LOW POPS WHILE MET MOS IS
PRETTY HIGH. REALITY WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN.
MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED TO THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
PRETTY QUICKLY...SO THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER ICE WILL BE
INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD. TIME SECTIONS SHOW THAT IT WILL BE
CLOSE...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF DRIZZLE AND RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT TEMPERATURES
COOL FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT MAKING ANY PRECIPITATION
/ASIDE FROM THE DRIZZLE/ SNOW.
WENT NEAR MAV MOS MOST AREAS FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THIS KEEPS
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.
THUS WHILE CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS
TIME...FEEL THAT COVERAGE AND LENGTH OF ANY THAT DOES APPEAR IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLICK SPOTS EARLY
IN THE MORNING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR
BRIDGES/OVERPASSES/UNTREATED SURFACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THEN ON SKY COVER.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
EXITING UPPER SYSTEM AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES ON
TUESDAY AND COULD ALSO HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IF SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. PROBLEM REMAINS LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
LACK OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION
OF DRIZZLE AND SNOW WITH LOW POPS MOST AREAS. AS NOTED IN THE NEAR
TERM CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOME AREAS VERY EARLY TUESDAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY NIGHT FORCING ENDS SO DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION. HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...BUT STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN USA KEEPS THE AREA IN CYCLONIC FLOW. THUS EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GAIN MORE
INFLUENCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO ALLOWED FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THEN.
FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS TUESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER. CUT SOME ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH EXPECTED SKY COVER.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES COMING
TOGETHER FOR DAY 7 WITH THE GFS QUICKER WITH SEPARATE UPPER
LOWS...IN SPLIT FLOW...ACROSS THE UPPER AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS. DESPITE BEING QUICKER WITH THESE SYSTEMS...THE GFS WAS
SLOWER WITH THE QPF THAN THE EURO. WITH THE GFS TYPICAL TOO FAST AND
THE EURO TO STRONG WITH STRONGER SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW...WILL ACCEPT
THE REGIONAL BLEND WHICH HOLDS OFF RAIN CHANCES TIL MONDAY.
00Z DECEMBER 8 ECM MOS HIGHS CLOSE TO REGIONAL BLEND AND LOOK GOOD
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN 50S BY SUNDAY.
THIS ALSO MATCHES UP NICELY WITH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO
10 DAY OUTLOOK WHICH STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 090600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
APPEARS COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING OFF TO THE EAST
OF KIND/KBMG NEAR TO SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME. MUCH OF THE POST
FRONTAL IFR CEILINGS HAVE DISSIPATED...ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE MVFR DECK
AROUND 015 EXTENDS WELL UPSTREAM INTO THE NORTHERN MIDWEST. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE MVFR CEILINGS SCATTER OUT IN THE
IMMEDIATE POST FRONTAL ZONE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING
CEILINGS AROUND 015...LINGERING BEYOND 091800Z.
SOME LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNDER THE UPPER LOW. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES ROUGHLY
091000Z-091600Z...SO THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW DURING
THOSE TIMES. IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM HAVE
ONLY BEEN ISOLATED IN NATURE SO FAR...SO WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY
FORECAST ABOVE IFR FOR NOW.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO SETTLE AROUND
290-310 DEGREES AT 9-13 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY VEER A BIT MORE
TOWARDS 320-340 DEGREES BY LATE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS 18-20 KTS
PROBABLE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...KOCH
AVIATION...JAS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
304 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WERE THE FOCUS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. CAA CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AND FINALLY DIMINISHES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION
SETTING UP AROUND 925M THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LOW
STRATUS DECK TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASED SKY COVER
DURING THIS TIME TO REFLECT THIS TREND. THE 09.06Z HRRR AND 09.03Z
HOPWRF HINTING ON CLOUD COVER LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY AS WELL. TEMPS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO INCREASE MUCH TODAY WITH
THE STRATUS AND CAA PERSISTING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWERED MAX
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST A DEGREE BUT LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT LOOKED ON TRACK.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
OVERALL...THE MID TO LATE WEEK PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERIOD OF
INCREASED WARMING AND MOISTURE. SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS TONIGHT
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION...WITH
THE GREAT LAKES WAVE SUPPRESSING MOISTURE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
STATES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS ALREADY
SUPPORTING RETURN FLOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW MEXICO.
MODELS SHOW THAT THIS PLUME WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST THEN
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK...AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND...THE RETURN OF MOISTURE AND LOW STRATUS ALONG WITH DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND BRING WITH IT ANOTHER AREA OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN SIMILAR TO EARLY THIS MORNINGS LOWS. CLOUDS
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN WITH TONIGHTS RUN...THE NAM IS
FASTER WITH SATURATION AT LOWER LEVELS WHILE THE GFS INITIALLY WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING DOES NOT SHOW SATURATION...BUT LATER IN
THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY IMPACT MINS AND
ESPECIALLY HIGHS BOTH DAYS. FOR NOW...HAVE TRIMMED FRI HIGHS A BIT
OVER THE AREA BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL TO LOWER
50S WEST/SOUTH. BY SATURDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVER MOST OF
THE SOUTH...UPPER 40S NORTHEAST. STRATUS WILL STILL BE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MIXING MIGHT PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER. DIFFUSE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WEST
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED
WAVE BY DAYS 6 AND 7 WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS STILL DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH THE
GFS FARTHER NORTH AND PHASING THE TWO STREAMS WHILE THE EURO IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ALSO ALLOW FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN A BLENDED APPROACH
UNTIL DETAILS BECOME MORE APPARENT. AFTER A MILD WEEKEND...PASSAGE
OF SYSTEM MONDAY WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...09/06Z
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FEW
HOLES EVERY NOW AND THEN. OVERALL CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AROUND
BKN015-025...BUT A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOW VFR RANGE AS WELL. LOOKS
LIKE LOW CIGS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
BREAKING UP SOME DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER MOISTURE PLOTS ADVERTISE
THEM REFORMING IN THE EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE
PUSHING BACK INTO THE CWA. THEREFORE HAVE ADVERTISED WITH A SCT
DECK ATTM SINCE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
403 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
...UPDATED LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BY LATE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW DENSE THESE CLOUDS
WILL BE BUT NAM, GFS, AND RAP ALL INDICATE A COOLING TREND IN THE
925MB TO 850MB LEVEL FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS
COOLING TREND, MORE CLOUDS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND AN
EASTERLY WIND WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 STILL LOOKS REASONABLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL
BE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EXACTLY HOW THE GRADIENT WILL END UP BETWEEN
THESE TWO EXTREMES IS UNCLEAR.
ISENTROPIC AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS IN THE 900MB TO 800MB LEVEL. STATUS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY
SOME AREAS OF FOG APPEARING LIKELY AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE
OVERNIGHT. DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER WILL BE IN THE 2000 TO 3000
FT AGL RANGE DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOUNDING YOU EXAMINE. GIVEN
THE DEPTH OF THIS LAYER AM TRENDING AWAY FROM INTRODUCING DRIZZLE
LATE TONIGHT BUT IF THE NAM ENDS UP BEING MORE CORRECT THEN SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 32 DEGREES BUT GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THE LOWS MAY OCCUR EARLY
WITH TEMPERATURES THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW
DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
THE PERIOD BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE A TRUE CHALLENGE
WITH RESPECT TO SKY COVER AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES BOTH IN THE
DAYTIME FOR HIGHS AS WELL AS LOWS OVERNIGHT. RELATIVELY MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MARKED BY DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S COULD CONTRIBUTE TO EVENING/NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
ADDITION TO ALREADY EXPECTED STRATUS. STRATUS THAT DOES ERODE
DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE ABLE RAPIDLY REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
DIURNALLY. MODELS SOUNDINGS GENERALLY LIMIT THE THICKNESS TO
SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2000 FT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE
DESPITE MODEL QPF OUTPUT. THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING HOW FAR WEST THE STRATUS IMPACTS THE FORECAST AREA
EACH DAY AND IT`S EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD OVERCAST
CONDITIONS, WHILE THE WESTERN MOST COUNTIES, GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WILL EXPERIENCE THE MOST HOURS OF INSOLATION AND CLEAR
SKIES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
UNLESS THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS FROM THE
CURRENT AND RECENT RUNS, SUNDAY NIGHT (OR AROUND THAT SYNOPTIC
TIMESCALE/TIMEFRAME) LOOKS WET WITH RAIN POTENTIAL OR EVEN SNOW
WITH AS UPPER DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
A SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES A NORTHEAST WIND AT
NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP. IN ADDITION TO THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS....AREAS OF STATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND 900-840MB MOISTURE
PROFILES FROM THE RAP AND NAM IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE AREA MORE
FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS AND IFR VSBY IN FOG WILL
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96 WHICH INCLUDES HAYS. THIS STATUS
AND FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. FURTHER SOUTH VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE DAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 49 33 47 37 / 0 10 10 0
GCK 52 31 50 33 / 0 10 10 0
EHA 59 34 57 33 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 56 36 56 35 / 0 10 10 0
HYS 42 29 43 35 / 0 10 10 0
P28 49 31 46 39 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
228 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BY LATE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW DENSE THESE CLOUDS
WILL BE BUT NAM, GFS, AND RAP ALL INDICATE A COOLING TREND IN THE
925MB TO 850MB LEVEL FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS
COOLING TREND, MORE CLOUDS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND AN
EASTERLY WIND WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 STILL LOOKS REASONABLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL
BE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EXACTLY HOW THE GRADIENT WILL END UP BETWEEN
THESE TWO EXTREMES IS UNCLEAR.
ISENTROPIC AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS IN THE 900MB TO 800MB LEVEL. STATUS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY
SOME AREAS OF FOG APPEARING LIKELY AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE
OVERNIGHT. DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER WILL BE IN THE 2000 TO 3000
FT AGL RANGE DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOUNDING YOU EXAMINE. GIVEN
THE DEPTH OF THIS LAYER AM TRENDING AWAY FROM INTRODUCING DRIZZLE
LATE TONIGHT BUT IF THE NAM ENDS UP BEING MORE CORRECT THEN SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 32 DEGREES BUT GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THE LOWS MAY OCCUR EARLY
WITH TEMPERATURES THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW
DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER AIR FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO A PSEUDO-NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN AFTERWARDS. THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
EXIST FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MINNESOTA, AND PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD MEAN VERY FEW CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY, WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S,
WARMING SLIGHTLY AS SATURDAY APPROACHES. NIGHTS WILL BE CLEAR WITH
LIGHT WINDS, AND SOME PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY MAINLY NORTH OF I-70
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183, TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT I HELD OFF ON
THAT FOR NOW.
SATURDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVE FROM THE
WESTERN ROCKIES TO NEAR THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN SOUTH, AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO TRAVEL SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND A LITTLE CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE IN OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE
FAIRLY WARM, WITH LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS, WHICH WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BY LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW, I
PLACED RW IN THE GRIDS, AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE LATER MODEL
RUNS TO DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER GRIDS WILL BE NEEDED.
THAT COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE UPPER
LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA. RAINSHOWERS SEEM THE
BEST PRECIP CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY, WITH THE SUPERMODEL PLACING
NEARLY 50 PERCENT POPS IN THE BARBER COUNTY AREA, 25 TO 30 PERCENT
POPS IN THE HAYS TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL AREAS, AND LOWER 16 TO
20 PERCENT SLIGHT POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES NEAR THE COLORADO
BOARDER. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST DURING THE NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THIS WILL HELP USHER SOME COLD AIR INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE WENT WITH A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR ALL OF
OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES
FROM PRATT TO COMANCHE COUNTY, WHERE ONLY RAIN SHOWERS WERE
MENTIONED. SUNDAY WILL COOL OFF CONSIDERABLY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S FROM LACROSSE TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL AND
NORTHWESTWARD, AND TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST OF
THAT LINE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
A SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES A NORTHEAST WIND AT
NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP. IN ADDITION TO THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS....AREAS OF STATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND 900-840MB MOISTURE
PROFILES FROM THE RAP AND NAM IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE AREA MORE
FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS AND IFR VSBY IN FOG WILL
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96 WHICH INCLUDES HAYS. THIS STATUS
AND FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. FURTHER SOUTH VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE DAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 49 33 56 37 / 0 10 10 0
GCK 52 31 57 33 / 0 10 10 0
EHA 59 34 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 56 36 60 35 / 0 10 10 0
HYS 42 29 50 35 / 0 10 10 0
P28 49 31 53 39 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1118 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
AT 00Z TUESDAY A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
WITH 40 METER 500MB 12 HOUR HEIGHT RISES REPORTED AT GLASGOW, MT,
130 METER HEIGHT RISES REPORTED AT BISMARK, ND AND 110 METER
HEIGHT RISES OBSERVED AT ABERDEEN, SD. FURTHER EAST A-27C 500MB
LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THE WISCONSIN ILLINOIS BORDER. A +100 KNOT
250MB JET STREAK WAS JUST WEST SOUTHWEST OF THIS 500 MB LOW WITH
THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET BEING LOCATED OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA. AT THE 700MB LEVEL A 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 700MB TEMPERATURES VARIED FROM -4 AT
TOPEKA AND -6C AT OMAHA TO +2C AT DODGE CITY. A 850MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT
00Z TUESDAY ONE SURFACE BOUNDARY, WEAK COLD FRONT, EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN ARKANSAS TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN IOWA TO NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. LOW CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED NORTH OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 11-3.9 SATELLITE LOOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTHEAST AND NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TOWARDS MORNING.
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STICK AROUND TONIGHT ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS
THE I-70 CORRIDOR, TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.
ON TUESDAY, LIGHT EAST WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE AT 10 TO
15 MPH. AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST, UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A BIT WITH THE COOLER UPSLOPE FLOW AND
COOLER GUIDANCE TEMPS. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
I-70 TO THE LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. THE WARMEST LOOKS TO BE AT
ELKHART AROUND 60.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER AIR FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO A PSEUDO-NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN AFTERWARDS. THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
EXIST FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MINNESOTA, AND PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD MEAN VERY FEW CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY, WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S,
WARMING SLIGHTLY AS SATURDAY APPROACHES. NIGHTS WILL BE CLEAR WITH
LIGHT WINDS, AND SOME PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY MAINLY NORTH OF I-70
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183, TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT I HELD OFF ON
THAT FOR NOW.
SATURDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVE FROM THE
WESTERN ROCKIES TO NEAR THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN SOUTH, AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO TRAVEL SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND A LITTLE CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE IN OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE
FAIRLY WARM, WITH LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS, WHICH WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BY LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW, I
PLACED RW IN THE GRIDS, AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE LATER MODEL
RUNS TO DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER GRIDS WILL BE NEEDED.
THAT COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE UPPER
LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA. RAINSHOWERS SEEM THE
BEST PRECIP CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY, WITH THE SUPERMODEL PLACING
NEARLY 50 PERCENT POPS IN THE BARBER COUNTY AREA, 25 TO 30 PERCENT
POPS IN THE HAYS TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL AREAS, AND LOWER 16 TO
20 PERCENT SLIGHT POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES NEAR THE COLORADO
BOARDER. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST DURING THE NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THIS WILL HELP USHER SOME COLD AIR INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE WENT WITH A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR ALL OF
OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES
FROM PRATT TO COMANCHE COUNTY, WHERE ONLY RAIN SHOWERS WERE
MENTIONED. SUNDAY WILL COOL OFF CONSIDERABLY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S FROM LACROSSE TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL AND
NORTHWESTWARD, AND TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST OF
THAT LINE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
A SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES A NORTHEAST WIND AT
NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP. IN ADDITION TO THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS....AREAS OF STATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND 900-840MB MOISTURE
PROFILES FROM THE RAP AND NAM IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE AREA MORE
FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS AND IFR VSBY IN FOG WILL
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96 WHICH INCLUDES HAYS. THIS STATUS
AND FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. FURTHER SOUTH VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE DAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 28 51 39 56 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 27 52 36 57 / 0 0 10 10
EHA 30 58 33 59 / 0 0 10 0
LBL 29 56 39 60 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 22 44 33 50 / 0 0 10 10
P28 29 50 33 53 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1000 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM TRENTON TO BREWSTER TO RUSSELL SPRINGS. 03Z RUC SIMILAR
TO LATEST HRRR OUTPUT AND 00Z NAM BOOSTING CONFIDENCE THAT DENSE
FOG WILL DEVELOP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
UPDATES REQUIRED FOR FIRST AND SECOND PERIODS (TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY) FOCUSING ON ARRIVAL OF POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
AT 0230Z CIRRUS SHIELD THAT WAS OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY IS
MOVING EAST AND SLOWLY OUT OF THE AREA. AM EXPECTING MORE TO MOVE
IN LATER IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
AT THE SFC STRATUS PER SATELLITE OBS AND RUC 900MB RH FORECAST
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. BY 06Z THIS
NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRATUS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY REACH AREAS JUST
TO THE NORTHEAST FROM MCCOOK TO NORTON. AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO
BACK INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS STRATUS DECK
EXPECTED TO REACH A TRENTON TO HILL CITY LINE BY 09Z THEN ROUGHLY
A BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND OAKLEY LINE BY 12Z. IN THE TRENTON TO
HILL CITY AND POINTS NORTHEAST AREAS WINDS ARE CALM AND RH NEAR
100 PERCENT. LATEST RUC/HRRR/NAM VISIBILITY FORECASTS ALL SHOWING
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR LESS.
NAM EXTRAPOLATION OF SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER RH PUSHES IT
FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER WITH DENSE FOG CONTINUING
ROUGHLY FROM TRENTON TO HOXIE AND POINTS EAST. HRRR SUGGESTS
FURTHER WEST TOWARD BENKELMAN TO NEAR GOODLAND AND RUSSELL
SPRINGS.
WILL AWAIT THE 03Z RUC/LATEST HRRR BEFORE ZONE UPDATE SENT BUT
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ABOVE THINKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
DECENT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS THE TRI STATE
REGION IS SEEING TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS WELL INTO THE 50S. THIS IS ONGOING DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING OVER THE AREA CREATING SUNNY CONDITIONS.
HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN
TIME FOR 925MB THERMAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE RIDGE AXIS COMBO...WHICH
MODELS BRING OVER THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MODEL RH IN LATEST
BUFKIT RUNS DOES HINT AT FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMATION BETWEEN 06Z-14Z
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES.
LGT/VAR WIND CONDITIONS WILL ALSO AID IN FOG FORMATION IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES...SO WILL KEEP PREVIOUS MENTION OF FOG IN THE
FORECAST.
GOING INTO TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PLAINS. THIS IS GOING TO SET UP YET ANOTHER NICE DAY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. MUCH OF THE WESTERN CWA WILL SEE WAA AGAIN ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHILE EASTERN ZONES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SURFACE
RIDGE THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE MAJOR FACTOR...SO HAVE TAPERED HIGHS
FOR TOMORROW FROM WEST TO EAST...MID 50S WEST DOWN TO THE MID 40S
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RETURN EAST AS WARM FRONT AND STALL OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. EAST OF THE
FRONT...LOW LEVELS WILL SATURATE OVERNIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 30S EAST OF THE BOUNDARY SO CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. NAM SOUNDINGS ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST OVER
A DEEPER LAYER COMPARED TO THE GFS SOUNDINGS...BUT EVEN IN THAT
SCENARIO ACCUMULATION WOULD ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
NONETHELESS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHT FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH EASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KANSAS SUCH AS
NORTON AND GRAHAM POSSIBLY STUCK IN THE CLOUDS ALL DAY AND WILL
TREND MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THOSE AREAS. CLOUDS WILL START TO
RETURN WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS A NARROW BAND ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE MOISTURE WHERE SURFACE WET BULBS DIP BELOW FREEZING AND
WILL CARRY A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THOSE AREAS. CLOUDS
WILL ERODE WEST TO EAST A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON FRIDAY WITH
SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT.
A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE WEEK
AND EJECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS TRACK
WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE HIGH
PLAINS AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
KGLD...VFR THROUGH 12Z WITH WINDS UNDER 5KTS AND A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. A FEW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AROUND 12Z-13Z BECOMING BKN OVER THE TERMINAL WITH SOME BR AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE 14Z-16Z TIME FRAME. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. UNDER A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF CIRRUS FROM 19Z
THROUGH 04Z WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND
11KTS VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 7KTS FROM 05Z-06Z.
KMCK...VFR THROUGH 09Z WITH WINDS UNDER 5KTS AND A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z VLIFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. AROUND 19Z THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD STRATUS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A LAYER OF CIRRUS AND
SOUTHEAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM CST TUESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016-028-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MST /5 AM CST/ TO 10 AM MST /11 AM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
925 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM TRENTON TO BREWSTER TO RUSSELL SPRINGS. 03Z RUC SIMILAR
TO LATEST HRRR OUTPUT AND 00Z NAM BOOSTING CONFIDENCE THAT DENSE
FOG WILL DEVELOP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
UPDATES REQUIRED FOR FIRST AND SECOND PERIODS (TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY) FOCUSING ON ARRIVAL OF POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
AT 0230Z CIRRUS SHIELD THAT WAS OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY IS
MOVING EAST AND SLOWLY OUT OF THE AREA. AM EXPECTING MORE TO MOVE
IN LATER IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
AT THE SFC STRATUS PER SATELLITE OBS AND RUC 900MB RH FORECAST
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. BY 06Z THIS
NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRATUS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY REACH AREAS JUST
TO THE NORTHEAST FROM MCCOOK TO NORTON. AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO
BACK INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS STRATUS DECK
EXPECTED TO REACH A TRENTON TO HILL CITY LINE BY 09Z THEN ROUGHLY
A BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND OAKLEY LINE BY 12Z. IN THE TRENTON TO
HILL CITY AND POINTS NORTHEAST AREAS WINDS ARE CALM AND RH NEAR
100 PERCENT. LATEST RUC/HRRR/NAM VISIBILITY FORECASTS ALL SHOWING
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR LESS.
NAM EXTRAPOLATION OF SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER RH PUSHES IT
FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER WITH DENSE FOG CONTINUING
ROUGHLY FROM TRENTON TO HOXIE AND POINTS EAST. HRRR SUGGESTS
FURTHER WEST TOWARD BENKELMAN TO NEAR GOODLAND AND RUSSELL
SPRINGS.
WILL AWAIT THE 03Z RUC/LATEST HRRR BEFORE ZONE UPDATE SENT BUT
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ABOVE THINKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
DECENT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS THE TRI STATE
REGION IS SEEING TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS WELL INTO THE 50S. THIS IS ONGOING DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING OVER THE AREA CREATING SUNNY CONDITIONS.
HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN
TIME FOR 925MB THERMAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE RIDGE AXIS COMBO...WHICH
MODELS BRING OVER THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MODEL RH IN LATEST
BUFKIT RUNS DOES HINT AT FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMATION BETWEEN 06Z-14Z
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES.
LGT/VAR WIND CONDITIONS WILL ALSO AID IN FOG FORMATION IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES...SO WILL KEEP PREVIOUS MENTION OF FOG IN THE
FORECAST.
GOING INTO TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PLAINS. THIS IS GOING TO SET UP YET ANOTHER NICE DAY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. MUCH OF THE WESTERN CWA WILL SEE WAA AGAIN ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHILE EASTERN ZONES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SURFACE
RIDGE THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE MAJOR FACTOR...SO HAVE TAPERED HIGHS
FOR TOMORROW FROM WEST TO EAST...MID 50S WEST DOWN TO THE MID 40S
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RETURN EAST AS WARM FRONT AND STALL OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. EAST OF THE
FRONT...LOW LEVELS WILL SATURATE OVERNIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 30S EAST OF THE BOUNDARY SO CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. NAM SOUNDINGS ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST OVER
A DEEPER LAYER COMPARED TO THE GFS SOUNDINGS...BUT EVEN IN THAT
SCENARIO ACCUMULATION WOULD ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
NONETHELESS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHT FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH EASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KANSAS SUCH AS
NORTON AND GRAHAM POSSIBLY STUCK IN THE CLOUDS ALL DAY AND WILL
TREND MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THOSE AREAS. CLOUDS WILL START TO
RETURN WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS A NARROW BAND ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE MOISTURE WHERE SURFACE WET BULBS DIP BELOW FREEZING AND
WILL CARRY A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THOSE AREAS. CLOUDS
WILL ERODE WEST TO EAST A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON FRIDAY WITH
SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT.
A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE WEEK
AND EJECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS TRACK
WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE HIGH
PLAINS AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
KGLD...VFR THROUGH 10Z WITH WINDS 5KTS OR LESS UNDER A LAYER OF
CIRRUS. FROM 11Z-17Z STRATUS/BR MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
BRINGING A PERIOD OF POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AND SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. FROM 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH NEAR 11KTS WITH BKN LAYER OF CIRRUS.
KMCK...VFR THROUGH 07Z WITH WINDS 5KTS OR LESS UNDER A LAYER OF
CIRRUS. FROM 08Z THROUGH 18Z IFR/VLIFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. AROUND 19Z
STRATUS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
ONLY A LAYER OF CIRRUS AND SOUTHEAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
5KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM CST TUESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016-028-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MST /5 AM CST/ TO 10 AM MST /11 AM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
245 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
THE SPOTTY RADAR RETURNS AND ANY SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THEM HAVE
LIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. BETTER RETURNS ARE OCCURRING
UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN INDIANA CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES
FROM THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AWAITING THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS HAVE TAKEN
ADVANTAGE OF SOME CLOUD THINNING CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE BREATHITT COUNTY MESONET REPORTING 33 DEGREES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT SIMILAR SPOTS LIKELY DIPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S HOWEVER...AS THE THICKER BLANKET OF LOWER CLOUDS MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST...EXPECT THESE READINGS TO WARM UP. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. MOST OF THE
RADAR RETURNS HAVE ONLY RESULTED IN SOME SPOTTY SPRINKLES THUS FAR
AND THE LATEST HRRR ONLY SUPPORTS THIS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...HAVE DIALED BACK
THE POPS A BIT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE
TO MENTION A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER A FEW
SPOTS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S. BLACK MOUNTAIN AND THE PIKE
COUNTY MESONET HAVE BEEN HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES AT THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
REMAIN STEADY IF NOT FALL A BIT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN WHEN THE
PRECIP THREATENS. AS SUCH...WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR
THESE LOCATIONS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AS READINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE DAY. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
A DEEPENING TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE SE ACROSS
EASTERN KY BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING LAKE SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT AND
WARM FRONT ARE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW...WITH THE WARM
FRONT HAVING JUST MOVED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA...AND THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE KY BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z TONIGHT /MAY LINGER
A BIT LONGER IN THE FAR SE/.
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY SRLY AS OF THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN
KY...WITH TEMP READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 AT PRESENT TIME.
/THE CAVEAT TO THAT IS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHICH IS CURRENTLY ONLY
IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THICK HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF RADAR RETURNS
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND TN...TREKKING EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE JKL CWA. WHILE RETURNS HAVE LESSENED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HAS KEPT ANY OF THE RAIN FROM REACHING THE
GROUND ACROSS KY. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA BY 0Z AS THIS AREA MOVES INTO OUR REGION...JUST IN
CASE SOME LIGHT SHOWER IS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BEGIN FILLING INTO EASTERN KY AFTER 6Z
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WITH
ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH DURING
THIS EVENT. AS SUCH...ONLY WARRANTED CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OPPOSED TO A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE PRECIP TYPE DURING THIS EVENT.
UNFORTUNATELY IT IS NOT A CUT AND DRY SITUATION. A FEW DEGREES
DIFFERENCE IN THE FIRST 1000 FEET COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN SNOW
OR RAIN. AS OF NOW...MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO 8K FT AND BELOW...WITH
NEARLY ALL OF THAT MOISTURE BELOW -10C HAVING NO INFLUENCE BY THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WOULD FAVOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOWFLAKE FORMATION. HOWEVER...TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF
THE MOIST LAYER...EXCEPT RIGHT AT THE LOWEST 1000 FT. SO IF THERE IS
ANY ICE/SNOW PELLETS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAY MELT ON THE WAY
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. OR...AS TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND ON THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN TOMORROW DIP DOWN SLIGHTLY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
SNOW/ICE PELLETS MAY MELT AND SOME MAY NOT...MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR
A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND ICE. TRIED TO STAY MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAINLY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT
IN PLACES ABOVE 1300 FEET THAT WILL EXPERIENCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
BY TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILE ALL OF THE ABOVE HOLDS TRUE...COLDER NE
AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN PULLING INTO THE REGION.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DROP TEMPS CLOSER TO THAT FREEZING MARK AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW...ALLOWING MORE SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN...OR IN
A FEW PLACES...FALL AS SNOW ONLY. STILL...GIVEN THE WET AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER SURFACE TEMPS...THE ONLY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AROUND BLACK MOUNTAIN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY JUST BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS WILL WORK TO MAKE THE LAYER OF MOISTURE EVEN
SHALLOWER...WHILE A IMPRESSIVELY STRONG INVERSION TAKES HOLD IN THE
MID LEVELS. AS SUCH...IT IS STILL BORDERLINE AND SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AS
TO IF THE PRECIP THAT FALLS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW...OR MAYBE A WINTRY DRIZZLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE BULK OF THE
EXTENDED AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT THE LARGE EASTERN LOW AWAY FROM
KENTUCKY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS BLOCKING LOW WILL KEEP THE
WX QUIET OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A WAVE SLIPPING PAST KENTUCKY TO THE
SOUTH MAY HAVE A FLEETING EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IN THE FAR EAST. OTHERWISE...THROUGH SUNDAY...HEIGHT RISES AND AN
ABSENCE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN LOW WILL KEEP
THINGS QUIET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BY SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY
STRONG RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA IN ALL THE MODELS WITH
THE ECMWF PREFERRED OWING TO ITS SLOWER EXIT OF THE EASTERN TROUGH
IN THIS BLOCKY PATTERN. THIS RIDGE WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE STATE
LATER MONDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A NORTHERN CENTER FOUND
JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED
COMPARED TO THE GFS/S AS IT DOES A BETTER JOB OF KEEPING ITS STREAMS
SEPARATE AND SLOWER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER MAY FEATURE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/
FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF
KENTUCKY. A GRADUALLY MODERATING BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND HOLDS QUIET AND SEASONABLY PLEASANT WX IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF/S IDEA OF A SFC LOW COMING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR LATER MONDAY SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT THIS
WOULD KEEP EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY UNTIL PERHAPS LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT TUESDAY IN CONTRAST TO THE GFS/S VERSION OF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE STATE BY 00Z TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST VIA LOWER POPS ON MONDAY. ALSO
MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR LOWS
EACH NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD...AND THEN A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO FILL IN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z TUESDAY. CEILINGS MAY THEN
RAISE A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...WHERE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN AND OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
OF AROUND 5 KTS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS BY EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1233 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
THE SPOTTY RADAR RETURNS AND ANY SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THEM HAVE
LIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. BETTER RETURNS ARE OCCURRING
UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN INDIANA CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES
FROM THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AWAITING THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS HAVE TAKEN
ADVANTAGE OF SOME CLOUD THINNING CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE BREATHITT COUNTY MESONET REPORTING 33 DEGREES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT SIMILAR SPOTS LIKELY DIPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S HOWEVER...AS THE THICKER BLANKET OF LOWER CLOUDS MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST...EXPECT THESE READINGS TO WARM UP. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. MOST OF THE
RADAR RETURNS HAVE ONLY RESULTED IN SOME SPOTTY SPRINKLES THUS FAR
AND THE LATEST HRRR ONLY SUPPORTS THIS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...HAVE DIALED BACK
THE POPS A BIT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE
TO MENTION A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER A FEW
SPOTS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S. BLACK MOUNTAIN AND THE PIKE
COUNTY MESONET HAVE BEEN HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES AT THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
REMAIN STEADY IF NOT FALL A BIT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN WHEN THE
PRECIP THREATENS. AS SUCH...WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR
THESE LOCATIONS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AS READINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE DAY. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
A DEEPENING TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE SE ACROSS
EASTERN KY BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING LAKE SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT AND
WARM FRONT ARE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW...WITH THE WARM
FRONT HAVING JUST MOVED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA...AND THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE KY BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z TONIGHT /MAY LINGER
A BIT LONGER IN THE FAR SE/.
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY SRLY AS OF THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN
KY...WITH TEMP READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 AT PRESENT TIME.
/THE CAVEAT TO THAT IS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHICH IS CURRENTLY ONLY
IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THICK HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF RADAR RETURNS
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND TN...TREKKING EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE JKL CWA. WHILE RETURNS HAVE LESSENED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HAS KEPT ANY OF THE RAIN FROM REACHING THE
GROUND ACROSS KY. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA BY 0Z AS THIS AREA MOVES INTO OUR REGION...JUST IN
CASE SOME LIGHT SHOWER IS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BEGIN FILLING INTO EASTERN KY AFTER 6Z
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WITH
ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH DURING
THIS EVENT. AS SUCH...ONLY WARRANTED CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OPPOSED TO A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE PRECIP TYPE DURING THIS EVENT.
UNFORTUNATELY IT IS NOT A CUT AND DRY SITUATION. A FEW DEGREES
DIFFERENCE IN THE FIRST 1000 FEET COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN SNOW
OR RAIN. AS OF NOW...MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO 8K FT AND BELOW...WITH
NEARLY ALL OF THAT MOISTURE BELOW -10C HAVING NO INFLUENCE BY THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WOULD FAVOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOWFLAKE FORMATION. HOWEVER...TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF
THE MOIST LAYER...EXCEPT RIGHT AT THE LOWEST 1000 FT. SO IF THERE IS
ANY ICE/SNOW PELLETS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAY MELT ON THE WAY
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. OR...AS TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND ON THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN TOMORROW DIP DOWN SLIGHTLY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
SNOW/ICE PELLETS MAY MELT AND SOME MAY NOT...MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR
A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND ICE. TRIED TO STAY MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAINLY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT
IN PLACES ABOVE 1300 FEET THAT WILL EXPERIENCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
BY TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILE ALL OF THE ABOVE HOLDS TRUE...COLDER NE
AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN PULLING INTO THE REGION.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DROP TEMPS CLOSER TO THAT FREEZING MARK AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW...ALLOWING MORE SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN...OR IN
A FEW PLACES...FALL AS SNOW ONLY. STILL...GIVEN THE WET AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER SURFACE TEMPS...THE ONLY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AROUND BLACK MOUNTAIN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY JUST BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS WILL WORK TO MAKE THE LAYER OF MOISTURE EVEN
SHALLOWER...WHILE A IMPRESSIVELY STRONG INVERSION TAKES HOLD IN THE
MID LEVELS. AS SUCH...IT IS STILL BORDERLINE AND SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AS
TO IF THE PRECIP THAT FALLS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW...OR MAYBE A WINTRY DRIZZLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER
LOW WILL WORK ACROSS EASTERN KY ON WED. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
DEPARTS...GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THU INTO SAT
ACROSS ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND EASTERN KY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY DEPART LATE IN THE PERIOD...EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
MODEL AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IS ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM WED INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. AS FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD...MODELS HOLD ONTO SOME SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE AND THE INVERSION HEIGHT IS NOT MUCH ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL
AS WELL. MODELS ALSO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES AND ICE MAY NOT BE
PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEPER
FROM 12Z TO 18Z...AND POSSIBLY LONGER ON WED. THE GFS OVERALL SHOWS
A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ICE WITH MORE SATURATION IN THE -8C TO -10C
LEVELS OR HIGHER. THE BULK OF WHAT SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD NOT BE
DENDRITES...BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING ON WED AND COULD RECEIVE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. AS WITH MOST NW FLOW EVENTS...THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHEN THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL DEPART. AT THIS TIME...WE
HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH THE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE DEPARTURE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES INTO WED EVENING.
HOWEVER...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ENSUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN THE START OF
THE PERIOD...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD...AND THEN A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO FILL IN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z TUESDAY. CEILINGS MAY THEN
RAISE A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...WHERE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN AND OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
OF AROUND 5 KTS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS BY EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
347 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
LOW PRESSURE SLIDING OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AS OF 23Z. COLD AIR IN
WAKE OF THE LOW SLOW TO ARRIVE. DEEP MOISTURE TIED INTO THE LOW HAS
FADED QUICKLY AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS SHALLOW IN DEPTH AND TEMPS
WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER ARE ONLY AS COOL AS -4C TO -6C OVER WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND WESTERN CWA. VSBY AT IWD AND CMX HAS BEEN BLO 5SM
SINCE SUNSET. REPORTS FM SOCIAL MEDIA INDICATE DRIZZLE OCCURRING
OVER KEWEENAW AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ONTONAGON COUNTY. SOME SNOW
FLURRIES ARE FALLING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN ONTONAGON COUNTY. ADDED
PATCHY DZ/FZDZ TO GRIDS UNTIL AROUND 06Z FOR WEST/NORTHWEST AND INTO
NCNTRL. RAP/NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE AFTER 06Z IT BECOMES COLD
ENOUGH FOR MIXED PRECIP TO CHANGE TO MAINLY SNOW.
ADDED FOG TO MUCH OF EAST HALF OF CWA THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER LK MICHIGAN PUSHING DWPNTS IN LOW 30S OVER THE
WET SNOW PACK FM THE SNOW THAT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY. ALREADY SEEING
VSBY BLO 2SM OVER MOST OF THE EAST PART OF THE CWA...INCLUDING VSBY
DOWN TO 1/4SM IN THE LAST HOUR AT MNM. ONCE WINDS IN BLYR SHIFT TO NW
LATER THIS EVENING...FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AS MOISTENING FLOW OFF
LK MICHIGAN WILL BE DIMINISHED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS THE SHOW SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE
BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECT
CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH MAIN SNOW BAND AHEAD OF THE SFC-8H
TROF OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. IT/S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
-FZDZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SNOW BAND WITH MID-LVL DRYING
AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW TO REACH THE -10C ISOTHERM...BUT
NOT SURE IF THE FZDZ WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FCST
GRIDS THIS EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE THAT N TO NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRES TONIGHT. COOLING LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS...850MB TEMPS (AROUND -6C) ARE MARGINAL FOR ENHANCEMENT
WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE IS AROUND...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT STRONGLY
CYCLONIC...AND DGZ IS ABOVE THE UPWARD MOTION AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE. UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC MOTION MAY BE THE DRIVING COMPONENT
AIDING SNOWFALL...AND WHERE THAT IS MAXIMIZED...EXPECT GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING OF INVERSION HGTS AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING MID-LVL RDG UPSTREAM MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A BRIEF PD OF
UPSLOPE FZDZ LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NRN TIER COUNTIES IN NRLY FLOW
LATE TONIGHT...BUT NAM SNDGS SHOW THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER COOLING TO
-10C BY SUNRISE WHICH SHOULD AGAIN SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. SINCE FZDZ THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AND LOOKS TO BE BRIEF
IF IT DOES OCCUR WL LEAVE IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW. LOOK FOR MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S INTERIOR WEST TO UPPER 20S EAST
HALF.
1034 MB SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD WEAKEN THE PRES
GRADIENT AND THUS ALLOW NRLY WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 3KFT WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH ANY REMAINING LIGHT UPSLOPE SHSN TO FLURRIES BY
LATE MORNING. LOOK FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S WEST
TO LOWER 30S EAST HALF.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA THROUGH SAT AS A SFC RIDGE
SITS OVER THE CWA BEFORE MOVING SE FRI INTO SAT. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
SUN. WED NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE
ZERO LOWS INLAND AS THE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AIRMASS IS STILL TO THE W. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE
FROM AOB 0C AT 12Z WED TO AOA 10C BY 00Z SAT...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS
STICKING AROUND THROUGH SAT. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED ON SAT WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRANSITION INTO A MORE
ACTIVE PATTER LATE IN THE WEEKEND...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME SUN INTO MON...AND PTYPE WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO SNOW AT LEAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MON. LOTS WILL
DEPEND ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH MODELS VARY
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM RUN TO RUN. STILL NOT BUYING GREATER QPF/LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MODELS SHOW ON SUN/SUN NIGHT AS MODELS LIKELY
ARE OVERDOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THEY OFTEN DO WHEN MODELING
SNOWPACK MELTING. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN FOR SAT
NIGHT-MON SINCE SFC TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR FREEZING RAIN IF THE
RAIN/CLOUDS ARE AS THICK AS MODELS SUGGEST...AND IF THERE IS LESS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TEMPS WILL BE COLDER BUT PRECIPITATION PROBABLY
WILL NOT OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER EASTERN
UPR MICHIGAN IS COMBINING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO MAINTAIN LIFR/IFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MVFR OR IFR VSBY OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME LGT SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN DZ/FZDZ. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AT KCMX
LATE IN THE NIGHT AS UPSLOPING DIMINISHES. ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR AT ALL THE TAF SITES TODAY BUT BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE INTO THE EVENING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH
INVERSION. HOWEVER...SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT AT
KIWD BY AFTN AS DOWNSLOPING EAST FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
BEHIND THE LOW...N TO NW WINDS RAMP UP TONIGHT...AIDED BY PRES RISES
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MAGNITUDE OF PRES RISES SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW HRS WHEN WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 35KT FROM NCNTRL TO SCNTRL
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES. WITH THE HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER
LAKES TUE NIGHT/WED...LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT ARE EXPECTED... AND
THESE LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD LINGER ON THRU THU AND POSSIBLY FRI AS
WELL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1244 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
LOW PRESSURE SLIDING OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AS OF 23Z. COLD AIR IN
WAKE OF THE LOW SLOW TO ARRIVE. DEEP MOISTURE TIED INTO THE LOW HAS
FADED QUICKLY AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS SHALLOW IN DEPTH AND TEMPS
WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER ARE ONLY AS COOL AS -4C TO -6C OVER WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND WESTERN CWA. VSBY AT IWD AND CMX HAS BEEN BLO 5SM
SINCE SUNSET. REPORTS FM SOCIAL MEDIA INDICATE DRIZZLE OCCURRING
OVER KEWEENAW AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ONTONAGON COUNTY. SOME SNOW
FLURRIES ARE FALLING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN ONTONAGON COUNTY. ADDED
PATCHY DZ/FZDZ TO GRIDS UNTIL AROUND 06Z FOR WEST/NORTHWEST AND INTO
NCNTRL. RAP/NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE AFTER 06Z IT BECOMES COLD
ENOUGH FOR MIXED PRECIP TO CHANGE TO MAINLY SNOW.
ADDED FOG TO MUCH OF EAST HALF OF CWA THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER LK MICHIGAN PUSHING DWPNTS IN LOW 30S OVER THE
WET SNOW PACK FM THE SNOW THAT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY. ALREADY SEEING
VSBY BLO 2SM OVER MOST OF THE EAST PART OF THE CWA...INCLUDING VSBY
DOWN TO 1/4SM IN THE LAST HOUR AT MNM. ONCE WINDS IN BLYR SHIFT TO NW
LATER THIS EVENING...FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AS MOISTENING FLOW OFF
LK MICHIGAN WILL BE DIMINISHED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS THE SHOW SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE
BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECT
CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH MAIN SNOW BAND AHEAD OF THE SFC-8H
TROF OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. IT/S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
-FZDZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SNOW BAND WITH MID-LVL DRYING
AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW TO REACH THE -10C ISOTHERM...BUT
NOT SURE IF THE FZDZ WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FCST
GRIDS THIS EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE THAT N TO NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRES TONIGHT. COOLING LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS...850MB TEMPS (AROUND -6C) ARE MARGINAL FOR ENHANCEMENT
WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE IS AROUND...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT STRONGLY
CYCLONIC...AND DGZ IS ABOVE THE UPWARD MOTION AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE. UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC MOTION MAY BE THE DRIVING COMPONENT
AIDING SNOWFALL...AND WHERE THAT IS MAXIMIZED...EXPECT GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING OF INVERSION HGTS AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING MID-LVL RDG UPSTREAM MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A BRIEF PD OF
UPSLOPE FZDZ LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NRN TIER COUNTIES IN NRLY FLOW
LATE TONIGHT...BUT NAM SNDGS SHOW THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER COOLING TO
-10C BY SUNRISE WHICH SHOULD AGAIN SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. SINCE FZDZ THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AND LOOKS TO BE BRIEF
IF IT DOES OCCUR WL LEAVE IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW. LOOK FOR MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S INTERIOR WEST TO UPPER 20S EAST
HALF.
1034 MB SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD WEAKEN THE PRES
GRADIENT AND THUS ALLOW NRLY WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 3KFT WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH ANY REMAINING LIGHT UPSLOPE SHSN TO FLURRIES BY
LATE MORNING. LOOK FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S WEST
TO LOWER 30S EAST HALF.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE SFC-500MB. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME
MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AS THE SFC RIDGE
EXITS E TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE AXIS OF THE 500MB RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR SLOWLY INCREASING W-SW
WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 9 TO 12C.
THIS WILL BE QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT VALUES WHICH ARE
HOVERING AROUND -4C.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL COME IN SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. AS MOISTURE INCREASES...LIGHT WAA WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE
CWA. KEPT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AS WELL FOR THIS WILL BE IN
ADVANCE OF THE ELONGATED SFC LOW OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS AT
00Z SUNDAY WITH THE HIGH DEW POINTS OVER THE MELTING SNOWPACK. THE
12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE THE LOW OVER MN AT 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN SHIFTING ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR/CENTRAL ONTARIO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THIS PERIOD...AND ADJUST AS NEEDED AS THE
TIME NEARS.
LOOK FOR THE COLD AIR TO SURGE IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW/COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PRECIP TURNING ALL BACK TO SNOW BY
MONDAY EVENING AT THE LATEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER EASTERN
UPR MICHIGAN IS COMBINING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO MAINTAIN LIFR/IFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MVFR OR IFR VSBY OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME LGT SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN DZ/FZDZ. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AT KCMX
LATE IN THE NIGHT AS UPSLOPING DIMINISHES. ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR AT ALL THE TAF SITES TODAY BUT BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE INTO THE EVENING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH
INVERSION. HOWEVER...SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT AT
KIWD BY AFTN AS DOWNSLOPING EAST FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
BEHIND THE LOW...N TO NW WINDS RAMP UP TONIGHT...AIDED BY PRES RISES
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MAGNITUDE OF PRES RISES SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW HRS WHEN WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 35KT FROM NCNTRL TO SCNTRL
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES. WITH THE HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER
LAKES TUE NIGHT/WED...LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT ARE EXPECTED... AND
THESE LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD LINGER ON THRU THU AND POSSIBLY FRI AS
WELL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1205 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
ABOUT A HALF INCH OF SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM THE MIDLAND AREA
DURING THE EVENING WHERE A MIX WITH RAIN ONLY OCCURRED BRIEFLY AT
THE ONSET. EXPECT ALL SNOW TO CONTINUE THERE WHILE A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE MORE COMMON IN THE FNT AND PTK AREA...AND ALL RAIN AT DTW
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST
RESTRICTION WILL BE LIFR CEILING WITH MOSTLY IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG
AND DRIZZLE PRIOR TO THE GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN LEAD TO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.
FOR DTW... RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING COULD CONTAIN A FEW WET
SNOW FLAKES...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST AND WITH
NO ACCUMULATION.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET DURING THE NIGHT
THROUGH AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 1/2 SM AND/OR CIGS
BELOW 200 FT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 835 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
UPDATE...
THE EARLIER UPDATE NUDGED THE FORECAST TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COLDER
PRECIPITATION TYPE SOLUTION BY ADDING A GREATER COMPONENT OF SNOW
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THIS IS BASED ON RADAR INDICATIONS OF HIGHER
PRECIPITATION RATES CAPABLE OF GREATER WET BULB COOLING...BUT THE
OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE STILL SUPPORTS MOSTLY SNOW IN THE TRI
CITIES REGION WITH JUST A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE DETROIT AREA
TO THE OHIO BORDER. PRECIPITATION RATES ARE BEING ENHANCED BY A
FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE
ACTING ON THE LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WHICH IS MATURING
INTO A WELL DEFINED TROWAL. STRONG VERTICAL MOTION RESPONSE...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO CONTINUE...IS INDICATED BY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES CENTERED AROUND 700 MB IN THE NEW 00Z DTX SOUNDING AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH SE MICHIGAN DURING THE REST OF
THE EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE WILL BRING A
QUICK END TO THE SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN
WILL BE FAST ENOUGH TO HOLD THE LINE ON MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE AREA. THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB REGION DOES HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO LINGER...AND MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON
ACCUMULATION...AS MOISTURE REMAINS DEEPER WITHIN THE DEFORMATION
AXIS ON THE NW FLANK OF THE WAVE AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO DRIZZLE...OR LACK
THEREOF...WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE LATE EVENING. DRIZZLE AND
FOG WILL MOVE OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN AND PERSIST UNTIL
NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED COMPACT MIDLEVEL WAVE
OVER THE MN/IA BORDER SPINNING SEWD. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
PRESENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE OVER IN AND MI. MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WAS SUPPORTING A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED SWATH OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE PRECIP OVER WESTERN MI AND NORTHERN IN...MOVING NEWD.
THERE WAS A SHARP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AS EVIDENCED
BY QUICKLY LOWERING CEILINGS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. NWP IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE AREA OF FGEN AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN AROUND 23-05Z /PERHAPS
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT/ WITH ANY ONE AREA SEEING AROUND 3-4 HOURS OF
PRECIP. QPF SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AROUND .10-.15 INCHES.
PRECIP TYPE IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOW/MID
20S OVER SE MI. RAP HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH ASSOCIATED
WETBULB TEMPS 32-35F. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP A WHOLE LOT IN
ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP WITH CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD EDGE UPWARD INTO THE UPPER 20S. WETBULB EFFECTS ONCE THE
PRECIP STARTS SHOULD DROP TEMPS INTO THE 33-37 DEGREE RANGE. WHILE
MUCH OF THE REGION COULD EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW /WITH
SNOW MORE LIKELY IN THE AREAS OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER PRECIP/...HAVE
GONE WITH PREDOMINANTLY RAIN FOR METRO DETROIT AND SOUTH...MOSTLY
SNOW FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB...AND A MIX
INBETWEEN. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE SNOW TO
MAINLY REMAIN AOA FREEZING WITH LOW SNOW RATIOS SO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN...WITH PERHAPS UP TO HALF AN INCH IN SPOTS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69.
ONCE THE UPPER MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE REGION CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND EXPECT THAT
WILL BE THE CASE OVER OUR AREA AS WELL. PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS GET CLOSER TO FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DRIFTING OFF TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS IT BECOMES
A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. SE MI WILL BE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL AND BROAD LIFT FROM THE TROUGH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD
BEFORE LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS TRIES TO
FORCE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. A BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH
IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN MI. THIS PRESENTS ONE OF THE MAIN
CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM AS THAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A MILD
SUNNY WEEKEND OR A CLOUDY WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.
WE START OFF TUESDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER HEAD WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OVERCAST SKIES AND WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND
LIFT WITH A SATURATED COLUMN UP TO 8KFT WILL PRODUCE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FORCING PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. ONE
QUESTION REMAINS TO BE WHAT WILL THE PTYPE BE ON TUESDAY? THE TREND
WILL BE FOR THE COLUMN TO COOL AS THE -26C 500MB COLD POOL SLIDE
OVER THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO WITH 850MB TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NEGATIVE. BUT THE SATURATION ONLY CLIMBS TO
AROUND 750MB OR SO WHICH MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH FOR ALL ICE
CRYSTALS WITH TEMPS NEARING -9C. SO KEPT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY POSSIBLY SWITCHING OVER TO ALL
SNOW CLOSER TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING UP TOWARD
950MB...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
PREVENT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS SFC TEMPS REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S.
THE NATURE OF THE PRECIP FORCING CHANGES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED EAST LEAVING A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS COLDER NORTHERLY
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER
THE THUMB BUT MODELS DO NO INDICATE ANY STRONG CONVERGENT REGIONS
OVER THE LAKE AND DELTA T FROM THE SFC TO 850MB IS RATHER WEAK
AROUND 10C. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHER POP...LOWER QPF FORECAST FOR
THE THUMB UNTIL WE SEE MORE DEFINITIVE SIGNATURES TO LOWER THE POPS
OR START THINKING IN TERMS OF POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES
OVER LAND WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AS THE
BACKSIDE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE...AND DRY WEATHER...LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE A
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TRYING TO CREEP IN ON THURSDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE AT
THIS TIME IS LOW AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA /ST CLAIR SANILAC AND
EASTERN HURON COUNTIES/. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE ALL RAIN...HOWEVER...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF SOME SNOW MIXES IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO DROP. FOR NOW HAVE JUST LEFT THE PRECIPITATION AS ALL RAIN
BUT SNOW MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED LATER AS WE GET A BETTER SAMPLING OF
HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT.
MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO
SETTLE ALLOWING US TO CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER SAGINAW
BAY A FEW HOURS EARLY BUT FLOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION OF THE NEARSHORE SMALL CRAFTS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY VEERING WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE STALLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WILL HELP EXCITE THE WIND FIELD ONCE AGAIN. A MARGINAL
GALE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN AS WINDS LOOK
TO GUST NEAR 35 KNOTS WITH THIS SETUP. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY
TRY TO HEAD BACK WEST TOWARD THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK WHICH WOULD
KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
LHZ441>443-462>464.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...DT
LONG TERM....DRK/RK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
402 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOCUS OF THIS SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR LATER TODAY. FROM THIS...THE MAIN
FORECAST ELEMENTS WILL BE ON TEMPS AND CLOUDS.
THE NOTICEABLE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE CWA. PRIOR TO THAT...SFC WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NW...BUT FULL SUNSHINE AND SOMEWHAT OF A FLAT LOW
LEVEL THERMAL AXIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER WARMUP THAN PREV
EXPECTED. DUE TO THIS...AREAS SOUTH OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR SHOULD
PEAK BETWEEN 60-66 DEGREES AND I HAVE USED VALUES THAT WERE ON THE
UPPER END OF THE GUID ENVELOP. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY
82...THIS IS MORE TRICKY AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE COOLER AIR LOOKS
TO ARRIVE HERE IN TIME TO LIMIT WARMING A BIT. A BLEND OF THE HI-RES
AND RAP MODELS WERE USED HERE AND HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH 53-58. AS FOR
CLOUDS...PREV EXPECTATIONS WERE FOR CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST NAM/RAP INDICATE THAT FRONTAL LIFT ALONG WITH STRONG CAA WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST A BKN DECK NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR TONIGHT...THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVER...BUT THEN BEGIN TO GET REPLACED BY INCREASING/THICKENING HIGH
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY FOR MIDDAY WED AND INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVE. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE NOT CLEAR CUT AS THE GFS MOS IS COOLER AND OTHER GUID IS
A BIT WARMER. I LIKE A BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER GUID DUE
TO SFC WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE N HALF...BUT IF THAT OCCURS IT WILL BE BRIEF. HIGHS WED
WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S N TO MID 50S
S. A COMBO OF CAA AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK. IF THE
HIGH CLOUDS BECOME THICK ENOUGH...READINGS COULD FALL SHORT OF
EXPECTED VALUES.
WED NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT THIS WEEK...BUT I WILL NOT GET
TOO AGGRESSIVE AND MUCH OF THE COOLING WILL DEPEND ON IF THE HIGH
CLOUDS EXIT OR THIN ENOUGH. ALL THE AVAILABLE GUID IS CLOSE WITH
UPPER 20S N TO LOWER 30S S AS THE RANGE. THU WILL BE A TAD WARMER AS
SOME MODIFICATION OCCURS THANKS TO A BIT MORE SUN WITH A MIX OF
CLOUDS AS WELL. /CME/
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
GLOBAL MODELS ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT CONSIDERING THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE. A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW A RIDGE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL...BUT THEN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS AS SURFACE PRESSURES
FALL AND RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
EMPHASIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO DEVELOP WITH HANDLING OF
THIS TROUGH AND HOW MUCH PHASING TAKES PLACE - THE ECWMF IS MORE
DISTINCT/SEPARATE AND THEREFORE A LITTLE SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST WITH
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ARKLAMISS WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
INDICATE MORE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
MAY SUPPORT MORE OF A CLOSED OFF SOLUTION SUCH PER THE ECWMF...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED AS THE PRECEDING HIGH DOES NOT
ALLOW FOR MUCH OF A WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...TRICKY VIS FORECAST THIS MORNING AS PATCHY SHALLOW
GROUND FOG IS CAUSING SITES TO BOUNCE WITH IFR/MVFR/VFR VIS
CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 13-15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE N HALF WHERE A MVFR CIG LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AFTER 20Z AND LINGER TO ABOUT 01-03Z. /CME/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 63 33 51 33 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 63 32 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 64 33 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 66 35 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 64 35 52 34 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 56 32 48 31 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 56 31 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
CME/EC/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
317 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2014
Vort max which dropped across the region overnight is now working
its way into the TN valley, with associated cold front currently
dropping into far s counties of our CWA. Early morning 11-3.9 low
cloud imagery indicates an extensive area of ST and SC in the wake
of the front, with this low cloud deck extending into the upper
Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes with only a few minor
breaks noted.
While can`t rule out a bit of sunshine, believe clouds will dominate
much of the region today due to the extensive low level moisture
trapped beneath a fairly stout inversion, as suggested by 925mb RH
progs from both the RUC and NAM. Today will certainly be cooler
than yesterday, and I`ve attempted to try to limit diurnal swing
as clouds should definitely inhibit a big daytime temp swing.
However, if a solid cloud deck holds throughout the day going max
temps may still be a bit too warm.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2014
(Tonight-Thursday)
Chilly and tranquil weather should continue during this time
frame, and the primary forecast concern is how short-term low
cloud trends will evolve heading into midweek. Given forecast
inversion and north-northeast low level flow forecast across the
area as surface ridge works into the upper Mississippi Valley,
believe low clouds will hold over the region tonight and will
likely have a tendency to hang tough through Wednesday, with some
additional mid level cloudiness spilling into the area as strong
but moisture-starved shortwave zips down the back side of the
large upper level low winding up over the east coast.
Temperatures should moderate a bit by Thursday with a slightly
warmer airmass and a bit more sunshine.
(Friday-Monday)
Medium range solutions take eastern U.S. low up the eastern
seaboard heading into the end of the week, allowing upper level
ridge to work into the central CONUS. Resultant warming of the
AMS over the mid-Mississippi Valley should provide a strong
rebound in temps across the FA, with highs in the 50s by the end
of the week.
UA pattern over the CONUS becomes even more progressive by late in
the period, allowing aforementioned ridge to push east and deep UA
trof over the western U.S. to sweep into the Plains. This could
mean some precip in our CWA by Sunday, with better chances by the
start of the new work week. This system should be a rain-maker for
our area due to the relatively mild AMS.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2014
Secondary cold front is making its way south across forecast area
as of 05z. It should move south of I-70 by 06z Tuesday. Plenty of
stratus associated with frontal boundary as cigs have dropped to
MVFR at KUIN and should at rest of taf sites by 09z Tuesday.
Though KCOU will be on western edge of cloud deck. Otherwise, MVFR
cigs to persist through rest of taf forecast period with gusty
north winds diminishing a bit just after sunrise. Surface ridge to
build back in by Tuesday evening with winds becoming northeasterly.
Specifics for KSTL:
Secondary cold front is making its way south across forecast area
as of 05z. It should move south of I-70 by 06z Tuesday. Plenty of
stratus associated with frontal boundary with cigs dropping to
MVFR by 09z Tuesday. MVFR cigs to persist through rest of taf
forecast period with gusty north winds diminishing a bit by 15z Tuesday.
Surface ridge to build back in by Tuesday evening with winds
becoming northeasterly by 03z Wednesday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A DECENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER NRN ILLINOIS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FURTHER WEST...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NORTH INTO THE YUKON OF CANADA. WITHIN THIS
RIDGE...A DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED OVER WESTERN MONTANA. CURRENT WV
IMAGERY AS OF 2 AM CST HAS THIS FEATURE NOW OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF MT. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. FURTHER
WEST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER EASTERN WYOMING
INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AN AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVERNIGHT...AND THIS AREA OF
CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SWRN NEBRASKA. THE FOG WAS PRIMARILY ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS AND ROUGHLY EXTENDED FROM
VALENTINE TO AINSWORTH...SWD TO THEDFORD...NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN
BOW. FURTHER WEST...SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM.
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CST...RANGED
FROM 15 AT NORTH PLATTE TO 25 AT BROKEN BOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ARE TEMPERATURES TODAY...AS WELL AS FOG POTENTIAL THIS
MORNING...AS WELL AS TONIGHT. FOR TODAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS ALONG A
LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO BROKEN BOW. ATTM...THE LATEST HI RES RUC
SOLN HAS THIS AREA OF FOG EXPANDING SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK. ONE WILDCARD IN THE DEGREE OF WESTWARD
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...IS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. ATTM...FOG VISBYS HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 5 MILE RANGE...SO WILL KEEP FOG MENTION AS
PATCHY THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE HRRR SOLN...FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIME FRAME...AND HAVE
EXTENDED THIS MENTION OF FOG INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS GIVEN
THIS MODEL TREND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK EAST LATER
TODAY INCREASING SRLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
TAKE ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT...RESULTING IN SOME LIMITED DOWNSLOPE
AND WARMER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. FURTHER EAST...THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUDS...SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING HIGH...WILL LIMIT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST...TO THE 40S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST
MAV GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER FOR HIGHS OVER THE PAST 3
RUNS...AND HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER MET
GUIDANCE. WITH THIS IN MIND...TRENDED HIGHS TDY SOME 2 TO 4
DEGREES COLDER THAN THE INHERITED FCST. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SRLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE LATEST
NAM SOLN IS INDICATING NEAR SATURATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM CURTIS...TO
ONEILL. INHERITED FCST HAD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN
THESE AREAS AND IT WILL BE CONTINUED WITH THE CURRENT FCST
PACKAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK
DOWN/FORCED EAST AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN STATES
AND EVENTUALLY THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE...AND SHOULD WARM BY SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. HIGHS
BY FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY WARMER IF GREATER MIXING OCCURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
PROVIDE FOR PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS GENERATE LIGHT DZ/QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OUR EAST THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY...BUT THE MOISTURE
PROFILES ONLY FAVOR STRATUS AND/OR FOG AS THE DEPTH OF THE RETURN IS
RATHER SHALLOW.
CONCERNING THIS WEEKEND AND A POTENTIAL SYSTEM...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A
DAY MAKES. IN 24 HOURS THE GFS SOLUTION HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS WEEKENDS CLOSED H5 LOW BY HUNDREDS OF MILES. THE
MODEL GENERATED TRACK OF THE LOW YESTERDAY FAVORED THE BIG BEND
OF TEXAS ON SUNDAY...THEREAFTER TRACKING THE LOW OVER HEART OF TEXAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TONIGHT...THE GFS IS FAVORING A SOLUTION
WHICH CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...THEN TRACKING THE
LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...AND EVENTUALLY
TOWARD THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODEL
INDICATES THE MEAN TROUGH TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EMERGES ON
THE PLAINS. COMPLICATING MATTERS...THE EUROPEAN CAMP AND NUMEROUS
GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A SIMILAR TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS /AT
LEAST INITIALLY/. SO FOR THE FIRST SUITE OF RUNS PROGGING THIS
SYSTEM...MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SHOWING SOME COHERENCE...BUT
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS SEVERELY LACKING. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS LOW...ESPECIALLY SINCE ALL LONG TERM GUIDANCE
GENERATES CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS ON SUNDAY.
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE KEYING ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...GENERATING
AN AREA OF PV DESTRUCTION OVER OUR SOUTH...AND SEVERELY LIMITING THE
QPF POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH THE CWA. THE GFS HOWEVER DOES EVENTUALLY
GENERATE WRAP AROUND QPF SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH
AND EAST. THE WRAP AROUND IS IN QUESTION AS THE CONVECTION
/PROJECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN KANSAS/ WOULD ALLOW FOR AN ASSUMED
GREATER EASTWARD WOBBLE OF THE H7 LOW. SO INSTEAD OF THE MODEL
PROJECTED H7 LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THE MORE LIKELY
LOCATION WOULD BE EASTERN OR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THE WRAP AROUND
WOULD THUS BE SHUNTED SOUTHEAST AS WELL. THE ECMWF IS
CONCERNING...GENERATING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER ON
SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN...THE CONVECTION THAT THE MODEL IS GENERATING
PUTS ANY OF THE QPF ACROSS OUR CWA SEVERELY IN QUESTION. THE CR-INT
PROCEDURE REMAINS PESSIMISTIC IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT FOR SUNDAY AND
BEYOND...WHICH IS FAVORED AT THIS POINT...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE BLENDED FORECAST. BUT...LAST NIGHT MY FORECAST STATED THE
POTENTIAL WEEKEND STORM WAS LOOKING MORE LIKE A "DUD" FOR THE
CWA...AT THIS TIME I WISH TO RETRACT THOSE WORDS AND STATE THAT THIS
SYSTEM IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
A BAND OF STRATUS ALONG THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WITH CIGS
AROUND BKN020. THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SOME FOG WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS
FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
SIGNATURE NOT REAL STRONG SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF NORTH PLATTE TAF FOR
NOW. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER NIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
337 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS OVERNIGHT INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUING TO SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. ALOFT...A
100+ KT JET CAN BE SEEN DIVING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA AND WESTERN
MISSOURI AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IN THE MID LEVELS...HEIGHT
RISES SUGGEST THE BUILDING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...AND SOME MINIMAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPREAD FROM
MANITOBA STRETCHING SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS CIRCULATING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...WITH STRATUS BANDS STETCHING INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. UNDER THESE BANDS...METAR SITES HAVE INDICATED CEILING
HEIGHTS NEAR 1500 FT AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE AT
VALENTINE.
FOR THE VERY NEAR SHORT TERM...THESE STRATUS BANDS WILL BE OF
CONCERN. SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP...SREF...AND HRRR ALL
SUGGEST THAT REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. AT THIS TIME...CONTINUED WITH
AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED. AS SUCH...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGE
AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE PLAINS...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
AND HELP CLEAR OUT ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL CENTER ON
THE POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL SURGE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES
NEAR 10 KTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE STATE
LINE. THEREFORE...IT REMAINS A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE FOG AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE MORNING THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOULD BECOME DRIZZLE. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH DRIZZLE IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY MODEL
THAT MOVES THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST IS THE GFS...SO WILL KEEP
THE DRIZZLE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. IT SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS AND EVEN SOME RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP AS THERE
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM ADVECTION.
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE ROCKIES WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON
SATURDAY. THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
SATURDAY. THE QUESTION BECOMES PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY LAYER AND HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST...BUT THAT IS EVEN A LITTLE
QUESTIONABLE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN UP SOME AND
THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS WITH MAYBE SOME RAIN IN THE EAST.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHERE THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING UP THE
QUESTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE. SUNDAY THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH THAT EXPECT RAIN BUT TEMPERATURES AT 850MB START TO COOL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE NIGHT THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
COOL AND THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH AND MAYBE CHANGE TO SNOW DURING
THE NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST AND EXPECT DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR BOTH THE KGRI AND KEAR TAF SITES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND A DEVELOPING STRATUS DECK OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL AS SUBSEQUENT FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...A THIN STRATUS BAND HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT
SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH NOT A SOLID BAND...SITES UNDER
THE STRATUS ARE CURRENTLY OVC AT 1800 FT. EXPECT SITES TO WAIVER
AS THIS STRATUS DECK PASSES THUS WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP. TOWARDS
THE MORNING HOURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR CALM WINDS. THIS COMBINED WITH MOISTURE AT THE
SURFACE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY PROMOTE FURTHER
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS FOG POTENTIAL. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE WORSE FURTHER WEST. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BY LATE MORNING ALLOWING FOR CLEARING OF ANY FOG AND STRATUS
DECK.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SALTZMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1047 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE CLOUD
COVER AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES. ATTENTION TURNS MORE TOWARD THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
LARGE SCALE 500 MB PATTERN AT 12Z HAD THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES.
A TROUGH WAS LOCATED TO OUR EAST/NORTHEAST...A RIDGE STRETCHED
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO ALASKA AND A BROAD TROUGH WAS OUT
OVER THE PACIFIC. A CLOSED LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OUT OF THE TROUGH TO
OUR EAST IN THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE UNITED STATES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THAT FEATURE WILL THEN LIKELY WOBBLE INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES INTO SATURDAY. IN OUR AREA...GENERAL RIDGING OCCURS IN THE
MID LEVELS BUT THERE WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING EAST
THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE...MAKING THE PATTERN A BIT MESSY. THE TROUGH
IN THE PACIFIC WILL BE PROGRESSIVE..AND BRING VERY WET WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK.
TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER IS PROBLEMATIC. LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN A BAND
FROM NORTHERN IOWA ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THESE MAY TRY TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THE MOST
RECENT RAP AND HRRR MODEL RUNS TEND TO DISSIPATE THIS
CLOUDINESS...BUT 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION NAM AND GFS DID BRING THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. A
COLD FRONT WAS ALREADY TRACKING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR TONIGHT. WE EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO
THE LOWER 20S SOUTH.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH ONLY POOR TO FAIR MIXING.
NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY TURNING TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY...AND HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 30S. AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
STAYS TO OUR SOUTH IN KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
AFTER COORDINATION WITH BORDERING OFFICES...ADDED SOME DRIZZLE INTO
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE 32 F. KEPT SOME
MENTION OF DRIZZLE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI FOR THURSDAY SO DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF DRIZZLE IN THAT PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD REACH
INTO THE 40S...POSSIBLY WARMER IF CLOUD COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
PATTERN IS A BIT MORE ACTIVE IN THIS PERIOD. 500 MB RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS OUR AREA AND INTO ONTARIO AT 12Z FRIDAY
...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF A
STRONG TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. WENT SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY LOWER/MID 50S FRIDAY AND MID/
UPPER 50S SATURDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE SOME
MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA FROM SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA. ONE MAIN MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE
THE OTHER MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PCPN AMOUNTS OUT OF OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
BAND OF MVFR STRATUS IS THINNING AND DISSIPATING ON THE WESTERN
EDGE AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF TAF SITES BY 06Z. HELD ONTO SCATTERED
MVFR CEILINGS AS BAND DISSIPATES...WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND
10-15KT EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...SCATTERED CEILINGS AT OR
ABOVE 15KFT ARE POSSIBLE...WITH WINDS DROPPING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1151 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO. CLOUD DECK EXTENDS INTO
SOUTHERN MN AND INTO IA AND MAY KEEP AREA CLOUDY THROUGH TUE MORN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST ND BETWEEN RUGBY
AND CANDO. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TUE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY IS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. FOG LOOP INDICATED
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUE TO ADVECT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WILL HAVE TO RAISE TEMPS OVER THE MN SIDE WITH MORE CLOUDS FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AND DECREASE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WINDS
WERE DROPPING OFF OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION.
EXPECT TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING
WITH NO CLOUD COVER.
HOURLY TEMPS TWEAKED THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS DECREASED A BIT WITH CLEARING IN THE NORTH.
WILL UPDATE LOW TEMP ON NEXT UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND IF WE GET ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ARE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE SFC LOW HAS BEEN MOVING OFF OF THE ARROWHEAD
OF MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FROM ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE STARTED IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
CWA...WHICH THE RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON. CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND WE SHOULD
BE FAIRLY CLEAR BY MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE SIGNS OF SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMATION...BUT ALONG WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE DRIER AIR AT THE SFC. THINK THAT CHANCES WILL NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR FOG TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
TOMORROW...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SD...BUT
THE COLUMN WILL BE TOO DRY TO DO MUCH AND NONE OF THE MODELS ARE
PRODUCING ANY PRECIP. THE SFC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH A COLD START AND 850MB TEMPS
STILL CLOSE TO ZERO EARLY IN THE DAY...TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 20S
EVEN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SOUTH WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
SFC TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BACK UP
WELL ABOVE ZERO AND SOME CLOSE TO 10 C. THE SPOILER MAY BE IF WE
GET STRATUS COMING BACK UP AND REMAINING OVER THE REGION. THE NAM
WAS EVEN TRYING TO PUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP OUT THURSDAY OVER
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE ANY DRIZZLE MENTION OUT FOR NOW
BUT BUMPED UP CLOUDS A BIT IN THE FAR EAST. HIGHS SHOULD SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...REACHING BACK
TOWARDS THE 30 MARK AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON
THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON 500MB RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NAEFS SHOWS
850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
STARTING EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS REACH
TO 12C TO 16C FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
INSTEAD OF THE SFC WARMING SW OR WEST PLUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
STRATUS LAYER ADVECTING NORTH KEEPING TEMPS COOLER SATURDAY. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND AS CLOUDS WILL MAKE OR BREAK TEMPS...EVEN
WITH LOW SUN ANGLE. UPR 30S TO 40 WITH CLOUDS...WITHOUT MID TO UPR
40S POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FROPA SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT PCPN
CHC TO THE FA AND BRING TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 20S BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
IFR TO MVFR CIGS OF 7 TO 16 HUNDRED FT WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BY TUE MORN AND LIKELY
ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP IFR/MVFR
CIGS THROUGH TUE MORN AND MAY LAST INTO TUE AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST
MN. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY LATE TUE MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1143 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING LOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT TO MERGE WITH A LOW NEAR THE VIRGINIA COAST TUESDAY
MORNING THAT WILL STALL NEAR BOSTON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO
VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR MODEL RIGHT ON TARGET WITH PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. COLDER
AIR PUSHING EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK REASONABLE AS DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE THIRTIES
BEHIND THE WEAK WARM FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SITUATION ON TUE LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE LATTER PART OF TONIGHT
WITH TEMPS NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT JUST SNOW. CAN SEE THE
PRECIP WAVERING BACK AND FORTH ON TUE. BESIDES...THE PRECIP WILL BE
LIGHT SO THINK SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL STAY UNDER A HALF AN INCH.
BY TUE NIGHT...THE BETTER ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD BE GETTING
COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW BUT THE THREAT SHOULD BE SHIFTING INTO
MAINLY JUST THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS ALOFT ONLY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A
LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
SNOWBELT AND NEARBY AREAS WITH MAX AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 2 TO MAYBE 3
INCHES LOOKING POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE SNOWBELT IN NW
PA.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STALLED INTO THU SO NOT A LOT
WILL CHANGE THRU THEN. A GOOD CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PREVAIL THRU THU WITH ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY STAYING ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN ANY GIVEN 12
HOUR PERIOD IN THE SNOWBELT WITH DUSTINGS OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
IN NEARBY AREAS.
TEMPS WILL STAY ABOUT 5 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THIS PERIOD.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
AREA STARTING FRIDAY AND IT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.
ON FRIDAY A WEAK SURFACE TROF WILL BRUSH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A THREAT OF FLURRIES AND
POSSIBLY SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON EAST OF CLEVELAND. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC IN CONTINUING SOME QPF ON FRIDAY
AS IT IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING IN THE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME
LEANING MAINLY DRY.
THE ECMWF MODEL WAS TRYING TO HINT AT SOME QPF OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE DRY AIR...RIDGING AND NO
OMEGA. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL KEEPS IT DRY...SO WENT THAT
DIRECTION.
WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BECOME ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS ARE MOVING INTO NW OHIO AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA AND EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE KERI AREA WILL
LIKELY BE THE LATEST GETTING THE IFR CONDITIONS SINCE THERE WILL
BE A DECENT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTH AS IT PASSES. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TIMING AND INTENSITY IS UNCERTAIN SO ONLY
PLACED A VICINITY SHOWER IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW BY TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY NE
OHIO INTO NW PA.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAINLY IN NE OHIO AND NW PA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THUR WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING LOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT TO MERGE WITH A LOW NEAR THE VIRGINIA COAST TUESDAY
MORNING THAT WILL STALL NEAR BOSTON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO
VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MAYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
258 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
IN RESPONSE TO VERY SHALLOW SFC MOISTURE ACROSS TEXOMA AND THE RED
RIVER VALLEY... DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SRN OK AND WRN
N TX. RECENT RAP AND HRRR OUTPUT OF VIS AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES
HINT AT FOG EXPANSION NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OK FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
NEAR SUNRISE BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS... HAVE MADE THE DECISION TO
EXTEND THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 16Z (10AM CST). AT THE
MOMENT... NOT CONVINCED OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG REACHING FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE CURRENT ADVISORY. HOWEVER... SOME POCKETS OF SHORT
DURATION DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY. WITH THAT
IN MIND... AND GIVEN THE CURRENT VIS TRENDS THROUGH 230AM CST...
THERE ARE NO PLANS TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY FARTHER NORTH AT THE
MOMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH VIS TRENDS CLOSELY THIS MORNING IN
THE EVENT AN EXPANSION IS NECESSARY.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY... HELPING CLEAR FOG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER WEAK SFC BOUNDARY... MUCH LIKE THE ONE
YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL
OK THROUGH THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS.
OVERNIGHT... AS THE H500 RIDGE BROADENS ACROSS THE WRN U.S... A WEAK
H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ACROSS ERN NM AND WEST TX. THIS WILL OPEN UP SOME MODEST SFC
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF. PAIRED WITH SOME WEAK LL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH... SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE WED INTO THU.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS THE RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST STRENGTHENS... LEAVING THE SRN PLAINS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
AND CONTINUAL SFC MOISTURE RETURN. OVERALL... MOST WILL REMAIN
DRY... WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
FOR THE WEEKEND... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE... GFS/GFS13KM/ECMWF/CA...
HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW DECENT CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE RUNS
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEEP H500 TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SAT.
INCREASED PRECIP CHCS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXPECT SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ON SUNDAY. A DECENT LOW... BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM KSPS TO KOUN
SHOW COLD TEMPS ALOFT... ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER... BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WELCOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 36 55 45 / 0 0 10 10
HOBART OK 57 40 55 46 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 42 58 48 / 0 0 10 20
GAGE OK 54 37 54 42 / 0 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 48 32 50 42 / 0 0 10 20
DURANT OK 60 40 55 45 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ036-037-
044>048-050>052.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
30/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
214 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST AND BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PRECIP LIFTING NORTH INTO THE SC MTNS LATE THIS EVENING IN REGION
OF LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE OVR THE S APPALACHIANS.
SATL-DERIVED PWAT LOOP SHOWING DEEP LVL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD
THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG AXIS OF EASTERLY LL JET. HAVE
ACCELERATED THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND ALSO
HAVE TRENDED PTYPE TO MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS AND LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...WHICH
SUGGESTS A STRIPE OF A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IS NOW POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT FROM SOMERSET/BEDFORD CO NEWRD INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS.
FURTHER EAST...STILL THINKING A PERIOD OF FZRA IS MOST LIKELY OVR
THE SUSQ VALLEY EARLY TUE AM.
BLEND OF 18Z CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST TEMPS BY
DAWN WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...TO PERHAPS
JUST ABV FREEZING OVR LANCASTER CO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
STILL A VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST DESPITE HOW CLOSE WE ARE TO THE
ONSET OF THINGS.
A LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE DUE NORTH AND UP
ALONG THE NJ COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS SLIGHTLY
OFFSHORE TRACK...EASTERN PA WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE STORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVR SE PA...AND POSSIBLY SOME SIG
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF TIOGA/SULLIVAN/SCHUYLKILL
COUNTIES.
WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL WINT WX ADVISORY BEFORE 18Z...AS
NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPS RISING WELL ABV FREEZING BY
LATE AM. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE EARLY AM COMMUTE FOR A MIXTURE
OF SNOW AND FZRA.
MAIN FCST ISSUE REMAINS HOW FAR WEST SIG PRECIP CAN BE DRAGGED
INTO CENTRAL PA. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN A PRETTY SHARP BACK EDGE
CUTTING OFF MOST OF THE PRECIP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN STATE COLLEGE AND
PERHAPS WILLIAMSPORT-HARRISBURG.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY STILL HIGH...WE KEPT THE WINTER STORM WATCH
UP FOR OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM TIOGA SOUTH DOWN INTO SCHUYLKILL
COUNTY...EMPHASIZING THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY WET SNOW BEING OVER
THOSE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LATEST RAP...21Z SREF AND 00Z NAM ALL
SUGGEST ENOUGH WARM AIR OVERSPREADS EASTERN PA TO TURN THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP TO RAIN BTWN LATE AM AND TUE AFTN OVR OUR NE
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING DEFORMATION BAND ON THE NW
PERIPHERY OF MID LVL LOW COULD STILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SIG SNOW
TUE NIGHT FROM TIOGA CO SOUTH THRU SCHUYLKILL CO.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NJ COAST AROUND MID DAY TUESDAY
AND SLOW DOWN OR EVEN STALL FOR PERHAPS A DAY OR MORE AS THE UPPER
LOW CAPTURES THE SYSTEM. WHILE MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY WARM ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR JUST PLAIN RAIN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE COLDER AIR TO COME IN AT ALL
LEVELS AND CHANGE THE MIXED PRECIP BACK TO MAINLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WED.
IT`S STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL RESULT AS THE MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE.
THE SOLUTIONS FALL BETWEEN THE ECMWF THAT TARGETS MY NWRN ZONES
EVEN THROUGH WED INTO THURSDAY...TO THE GFS THAT SHOWS ALMOST NO
PRECIP WRAPPING BACK. I KEPT A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT QPF IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THE ACTIVITY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE LOW MOVING VERY SLOWLY IF AT ALL...THE CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN HIGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
I GENERALLY KEPT AMOUNTS LOW...DEPENDENT ON THE FORMATION OF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE MENTIONED EARLIER...OR NOT.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
UPPER LOW TO NUDGE EAST ENOUGH TO HAVE US BEGINNING TO ENJOY THE
INFLUENCE OF SOME RIDGING AND FAIRER CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK NORTH
NORTHWESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING AND DEEPEN JUST OFF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DRIFT NORTH TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INITIAL SHOT OF MIXED PCPN /SN-PL-FZRA/
CURRENTLY IMPACTING AIRFIELDS ALONG AND SE OF AOO-UNV-IPT LINE
SHOULD START TO TRANSITION TO/MIX WITH RAIN BTWN 12-15Z. BFD AND
JST WILL BE ON THE FAR WRN EDGE OF THE INITIAL PCPN SHIELD ASSOCD
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM AND MAY NOT SEE ANY PCPN UNTIL
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND
MEDIUM FOR TIMING AND PTYPE TRANSITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING. WENT
WITH -RASN OR -RA AS SIG WX TYPES FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE SN. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF ANOTHER PTYPE TRANSITION/MIX FROM MOSTLY RA TO SNRA OR
JUST ALL SN TONIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING LOW AND MAY
ADDRESS THIS WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME A FACTOR AT
ERN SITES TONIGHT SUSTAINED AT 15-20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THIS STORM WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER PATTERN IN CENTRAL PA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF WRAP AROUND SNOWS POSSIBLE. RETURN OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD SPELL SOME MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW. STRONG N-NW WINDS 15-20KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
FRI...MVFR CIGS/-SHSN NW...BCMG VFR EAST.
SAT...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ037-041-042-053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>052-056-057-059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1051 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
SHORT TERM CLOUD TRENDS HAVE BEEN CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST.
STRONG PUSH OF CLEARING HAS OCCURRED FROM THE JAMES VALLEY
THROUGH I 29 CORRIDOR IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS... NARROWING AND BACKING BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN CWA...WHILE BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE
EAST...BUT FAR LESS IMPRESSIVELY. IN CLEARING...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
MUCH FASTER AS HAVE THE WINDS...WHILE STILL GUSTY AND RELATIVELY
WARMER UNDER CLOUDS TO EAST. CLEARING WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING WHILE A SLOWER BACKING TO NARROW BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS WORKS OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL. WILL SEE CLOUDS AGAIN
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ALONG/EAST OF THE I29 CORRIDOR AS FINAL
LOBE WRAPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GENERAL NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS. DOWNSLOPE OFF THE RIDGE
WITH NARROWING MOISTURE DEPTH COULD CREATE A FEW ISSUES WORKING
CLOUDS MUCH SOUTHWEST PAST KFSD...AND EVEN TO KFSD. COULD POSSIBLY
SEE A FEW FLURRIES START TO FLUTTER THROUGH SKIES IN THE NORTHEAST
AFTER 08Z...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT MUCH MERIT IN THE MENTION WITH
TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.
HAVE TRIMMED A COUPLE OF LOWS DOWN A BIT IN VICINITY OF RIDGE AXIS
AND CLEARING...BUT IN GENERAL EVEN ADVECTION WILL TAKE LOWS TO
EARLIER LEVELS...JUST A BIT QUICKER OF A START THIS EVENING TO
THOSE ENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE STATUS OF THE LOW
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAD BEEN SPREADING SOUTH OVER THE AREA. THAT
SPREAD HAS DONE A NEAR HALT AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTION RUNS INTO THE
HEATED AIR NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. IT SEEMS WITH THE START OF
EARLY EVENING COOLING THAT THE DECK WOULD AGAIN START SPREADING
SOUTH. CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS SOUTH
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND WAS STARTING TO GET INTO FAR NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AT 20Z. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP SUGGEST THE 925 MB FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO GO STRAIGHT NORTHERLY AND CONTINUE THUS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 06Z/MIDNIGHT...THOUGH DECREASING SLOWLY DURING THE
EVENING. EXPECT THIS WILL GIVE THE DRYING CONTINUED TRANSPORT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND NOT ALLOW THE SOLID
CLOUD COVER TO GET ALL THE WAY TO THE RIVER...OR OF IT BRIEFLY
DOES...IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT AGAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY. AM PLANNING FOR A
LITTLE INCREASE IN THE LOW CLOUDS THERE BUT WITH THE WARM AIR
THERE CURRENTLY AND DRYING FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING...HAVE KEPT THE INCREASE VERY MODEST BEFORE IT CLEARS OUT
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL STEADILY TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING AND
DROPOFF IN WINDS...WITH LOWS BEING REACH ABOUT SUNRISE AT 8 AM.
WINDS BY THEN SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH WITH A 5 TO 5 MPH
NORTHERLY BREEZE IN THE EAST LINGERING TO SUNUP.
TUESDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DRIFTING INTO THE AREA. HAVE GONE PRETTY
CONSERVATIVE IN CLOUD COVER AND IF THEY HIGHER CLOUDS ARE THICK
ENOUGH IT COULD GET MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR PART OF THE DAY. IN ANY EVENT
HEATING BY THE DECEMBER SUN WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
MUCH OF THE WARMING UPSTAIRS EVEN WITH NO SNOW COVER...AND FORECAST
HIGHS WILL REMAIN AROUND 30 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THOUGH...WITH THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE BREEZE PICKING TO 10 PLUS IN THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY WARM AND MOSTLY
DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A MINOR SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS WAVE...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS AND VIRGA POSSIBLE
GIVEN DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
THE WARMUP BEGINS TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. AS LOW LVL TEMPERATURES BUILD...SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO VEER SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. WARM AIR WILL BE SLOW TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT NEAR 40 READINGS SHOULD BE
ATTAINABLE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK TO BE VERY WARM AS DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PULLS BOTH MOISTURE AND WARM AIR OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY WARM EACH AFTERNOON...WITH THE 40S LIKELY ON
THURSDAY AND 40S AND 50S ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT FALL VERY
FALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND CURRENT LOWS MAY STILL BE
TOO LOW. THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD
NOT ALLOW FOR ANY EXTREME JUMP ON SATURDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WARMING
INTO THE MID 50S AND POTENTIALLY EVEN DRIZZLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR THEIR SEASONAL NORMALS. THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH CONTINUE TO
BE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
MVFR CEILINGS MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT KFSD TAF LOCATION FOR PROLONGED
PERIOD THROUGH MID MORNING. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR KHON/KSUX DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK.
MODELS PROJECT THE STRATUS LAYER TO GRADUALLY THIN WEST TO EAST
AFTER SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WORKS THROUGH THE AREA. THUS
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR GRADUALLY EXPECTED ALONG I-29 CORRIDOR BY 16-18Z
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
330 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER INDIANA WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN TN THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE
BETTER DEFORMATIONAL INFLUENCES WILL BE TO THE LEFT OF THE
TRACK...WE DO PICK UP SOME DESCENT CURVATURE AND SHEAR ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE TRACK. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOWER
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS IL...IN AND NRN MO.
LATEST HRRR AND MODEL DATA BOTH CONCUR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AN EXAMINATION OF FREEZING LEVELS DOES
SUPPORT SNOW FOR AREAS GENERALLY ABOVE 1500 FT MSL AFT 18Z TODAY.
BY 00Z THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE MID STATE...WHERE THE
CHANCES OF PRECIP EXISTS...WILL BE SNOW. AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT
AND NO ADVISORIES OR SPS PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED. FURTHERMORE...SFC
TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
A LOW CHANCE OF SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST FOR TONIGHT
BUT AMOUNTS AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT.
FOR THE FCST...WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW EASTERN THIRD
FOR THIS MORNING...JUST RAIN SOUTHEAST. THIS AFTERNOON...WILL TREND
THE GRIDS TOWARD A CHANCE OF ALL SNOW FOR THE EASTERN AREA BY
EVENING. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW 0C AND FREEZING LEVELS
WILL BE DROPPING AS WELL AS SFC TEMPS WHICH WILL BE FALLING
THROUGH THE 30S.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED. IN FACT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ON
TAP FOR WED NT AND THU.
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS A UNIFORM
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY A VERY SLOW INCREASE IN HEIGHT
VALUES.
IN THE EXTENDED FCST...HEIGHT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
A RIDGE AXIS REACHING THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL EQUATE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. LATE IN THE EXTENDED HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 43 32 43 29 / 10 05 05 05
CLARKSVILLE 42 30 42 27 / 10 05 05 05
CROSSVILLE 40 29 39 26 / 30 30 10 05
COLUMBIA 44 31 44 29 / 10 05 05 05
LAWRENCEBURG 45 30 44 27 / 10 05 05 05
WAVERLY 43 31 42 27 / 10 05 05 05
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
356 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 3 AM...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED IN OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE HIGH CLOUDS WERE IMPEDING RADIATIVE HEAT LOSS
A BIT. STILL WE EXPECT FOG TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD BEFORE
SUNRISE. ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...CONDITIONS ARE
EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG AND IT IS LIKELY THAT IT WILL
BE SLOWER THAN USUAL TO LIFT AND BURN OFF. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EXPIRES AT 10AM...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO
FROM I-20 NORTH. WINDS BELOW 850MB THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LIGHT...IF NOT NEARLY CALM...WHICH MEANS THE LOW ANGLE
DECEMBER SUN WILL BE THE ONLY THING WORKING TO LIFT THE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS TODAY. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWEST TO ERODE TODAY FROM
ROUGHLY I-20 TO THE RED RIVER...BUT OUT OF ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...ONLY THE RUC HAS THESE CLOUDS HANGING IN THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY THE EXACT EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE
HUGE IMPLICATIONS ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY...BUT AM LEANING TOWARD THE
RUC SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW TRADITIONAL
GUIDANCE FROM I-20 NORTHWARD. IF AND WHERE CLOUDS HOLD IN ALL
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 50S.
INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD NIX THE DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS MORE CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS IT HAS TAPPED INTO A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND IS SLINGING
IT INTO TEXAS. THE ECMWF/NAM ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE PROFILES OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AM
INCLINED TO BELIEVE THEM. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
LAYER OF DRIER AIR BELOW THIS MOISTURE THAT WILL KEEP PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE GROUND WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS LAYER SHOULD SATURATE
FROM TOP DOWN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE INTRODUCED SPRINKLES
INTO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL
BE UNLIKELY INITIALLY. THE BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA WHERE A TINY AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
BE AVAILABLE. QPF WILL BE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WE EXPECT LESS
THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REMAIN
SEASONABLY COOL AS THICK CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT DAYTIME WARMING.
AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY EVENING...THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SUBSTANTIALLY. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
MOIST AND NEARLY SATURATED...WHICH WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WHILE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...THEY HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK FARTHER TO THE
NORTH THAN YESTERDAY/S MODEL RUNS. STILL...THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WOULD PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN A REGION OF STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT
AND GIVEN THE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY AND/OR
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONG...SURFACE
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE VERY LIMITED AND SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. 925MB THETA-E VALUES DO SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR THE INCLUSION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST BUT MUCAPE
LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPS
WILL COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY...BUT WRAP-AROUND LOW
CLOUDS MAY KEEP MONDAY/S HIGHS COOLER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
TR.92
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014/
CONCERNS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH 16Z AS
AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. MVFR CONDITIONS 16Z THROUGH
18-20Z.
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY
EVENING. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN VARIABLE FALLING BELOW 1 MILE AT
TIMES AND RISING TO 3-5SM. EXPECT VISIBILITIES OVERALL TO FALL TO
1 MILE OR LESS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY AT THE TAF
SITES...SO HAVE PLACED 1 SM BR IN MOST OF THE METROPLEX
SITES...WITH A TEMPO 1/2SM 10-14Z. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY FALL
TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST LEAVE THE
TEMPO 1/2SM. THE ONE INHIBITING FACTOR FOR DENSE FOG IS THE SHIELD
OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. EXPECT THE FOG TO DIMINISH BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY NORTH TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 58 44 61 51 59 / 0 5 10 20 20
WACO, TX 62 42 60 51 63 / 0 5 20 30 30
PARIS, TX 60 39 55 43 55 / 0 5 5 20 20
DENTON, TX 57 40 60 49 58 / 0 5 10 20 20
MCKINNEY, TX 58 39 59 48 58 / 0 5 10 20 20
DALLAS, TX 59 45 60 50 60 / 0 5 10 20 20
TERRELL, TX 60 42 60 48 59 / 0 5 10 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 61 44 62 50 59 / 0 5 10 30 30
TEMPLE, TX 64 45 62 52 64 / 0 5 20 30 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 61 42 59 51 62 / 0 5 10 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1135 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
The aviation forecast remains problematic with regard to how
extensive the low stratus and fog development will be overnight
and early Tuesday morning in our forecast area. Goes 11-3.9 micron
satellite imagery, along with confirmation calls to county law
enforcement, indicates dense fog across the far northern part
of our area (Haskell and Throckmorton Counties). Temperature/
dewpoint spreads are decreasing farther south across our area
with radiational cooling, but thicker higher cloud coverage
is also overspreading our area from the west. The increasing
high cloudiness could delay and limit the development of
fog and low stratus overnight. At this time, have higher
confidence that the KABI site will be affected, and have
conditions degrading to low end IFR conditions at that site
after 08Z. Elswehere, leaning toward a patchy fog/low stratus
scenario with MVFR visibilities. We will continue to monitor and
make adjustments as needed. On Tuesday morning, any lingering low
stratus/fog is expected to break up/dissipate around mid-morning
with VFR conditions during the afternoon. Light winds overnight
and early Tuesday morning will become southeast at 4-7 kt on
Tuesday afternoon.
19
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Continuing along the lines of the previous TAF package, regarding
uncertainty with the extent of low stratus and fog development
tonight. The latest NAM12 and RUC13 indicate that fog and low
stratus may initially develop across our northeastern counties
early tonight, then develop (in a patchy nature) farther south and
west through the overnight hours. Could have IFR to LIFR
visibilities and ceilings at times, but with the uncertainty at
this time, going with a conservative approach with visibility
reductions, and by carrying scattered low cloud layers as opposed
to ceilings. Will monitor conditions throughout the evening and
tonight and will make adjustments as needed. Light winds will
continue tonight, and should eventually become southeast at 4-7 kt
on Tuesday afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
Skies have cleared across West Central Texas, allowing temperatures
to warm into the mid 60s to near 70 degrees this afternoon. Winds
remain light and variable across the region given the proximity to
the surface anticyclone. This surface high will remain in place
overnight but should shift far enough east to allow a return of weak
southerly winds.
With little change in the airmass and light winds in place across
the area, fog and low stratus is expected to develop again tonight.
This fog should remain patchy, and confidence is rather low
regarding what areas will actually see the most significant reduced
visibilities. Over the last two mornings, we have seen transient
dense fog develop in various locations, with visibilities down to
near zero at times. Fog is expected to lift in areas where low
clouds develop. Otherwise, expect low temperatures in the lower 40s,
possibly warming a few degrees if/when cloud cover develops. The
fly in the ointment is the anticipated increase in high clouds.
This could mitigate fog development.
Pleasant weather conditions are anticipated on Tuesday. High clouds
will continue to increase with southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph. No
precipitation is expected throughout the day with temperatures
warming into the mid and upper 60s.
Johnson
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)
As a weak upper ridge moves east of the area Tuesday night, a
weak upper short wave will move east over New Mexico giving the
forecast area our next chance of rainfall. The rainfall is
expected to be light and will expand eastward from the
southwestern CWA Tuesday night over the remaining CWA Wednesday
through Thursday. The chance of rainfall will end on Friday as
upper ridging builds over the area from the west in the wake of
the departing upper short wave. Highs on Wednesday will be in the
lower 60s warming into the Upper 60s to the lower 70s by Saturday.
Models are closing an upper low over southern New Mexico Saturday
night with the dryline tightening just west of the forecast area.
Forcing along the Pacific front/dryline Saturday night will bring
a chance of showers and thunderstorms over our western CWA
Saturday night, expanding through the remainder of the forecast
area through Sunday night. As the upper level system tracks east,
an associated cold front will move across the forecast area on
Sunday with cooler post-frontal highs on Monday ranging from the
upper 40s to the lower 50s.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 41 66 48 62 51 / 0 0 5 20 20
San Angelo 41 67 49 62 52 / 0 0 10 30 20
Junction 39 67 47 61 51 / 0 0 10 40 40
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1112 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014
.UPDATE...
AS EXPECTED...THE DENSE FOG HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES...AS CONFIRMED BY A CALL TO ASPERMONT. THE FOG PROBABLY IS
NOT INTO COTTLE COUNTY JUST YET...BUT IT SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND
WESTWARD INTO COTTLE COUNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN THIS
WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR COTTLE...KING
AND STONEWALL COUNTIES THROUGH 10 AM TUESDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014/
UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINT AND RH GRIDS
SLIGHTLY TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. WE
DID ALSO A MENTION OF DENSE FOG OVER THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
BEFORE 06Z...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG MENTION THEREAFTER.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG EXTENDING FROM THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA
INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. KSPS HAS ALREADY REPORTED VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1/4 MILE IN FOG...AND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE
DEWPOINT IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS...WE COULD SEE DENSE FOG
MATERIALIZE HERE TOO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...THOUGH
PERHAPS LESS WIDESPREAD...FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE UP ON THE CAPROCK
LATER TONIGHT /WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT/. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014/
AVIATION...
THIN BUT RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KLBB
AND SOUTH OF KCDS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT. 18Z WRF-NAM NOT AS PESSIMISTIC AS ITS 12Z RUN
WHILE THE HRRR CONTINUES TO KEEP BEST POTENTIAL OFF THE CAPROCK AT
KCDS. ALSO SOME QUESTION OF HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT AFFECT
COOLING AND THUS NARROWING OF TEMP-DEW SPREAD. WILL NOT MAKE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CHANGE ATTM WITH EXPECTATION THAT RESTRICTIONS TO
VSBY AND/OR CIGS WILL BE NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. HOPEFULLY 00Z MODEL
RUNS AND LATER HI-RES RUNS WILL ADD CLARITY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST MON DEC 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
VERY LITTLE...FROM A SYNOPTIC PERSPECTIVE...TO MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ALTHOUGH WE WILL
SEE A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENTS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT. THAT SAID...SPEEDS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND POTENTIAL
FOR FOG WILL EXIST AREA WIDE. HOWEVER...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION
FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. YET...GIVEN THE
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS APPARENT TO OUR WEST...EVEN THAT IS
NOT GUARANTEED. SO...WILL STICK WITH MENTION OF FOG /PATCHY WEST TO
AREAS EAST/ TONIGHT AND ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW VISIBILITIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF WHAT WE SAW DURING THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.
LONG TERM...
MENTIONABLE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
CHANCES LOOK TO BE MORE UNLIKELY. WHILE THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE
AT THE LOW AND UPPER LEVELS...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN 800 AND 600 MB WILL PREVENT WHAT LITTLE PRECIP THAT MAY
OCCUR FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION TO DRY AIR...LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAK AT BEST.
DESPITE A LACK OF PRECIP LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH STRATUS FOG WILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.
FOG HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A LEE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP SURFACE RH VALUES LOWER. STRATUS SHOULD ALSO
NOT BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR WILL BE SITTING
OVER THE REGION.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN ELONGATED TROF WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST WITH THE LEE TROF DIGGING FURTHER SOUTHWARD.
CONTINUOUS SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL HELP WARM TEMPS
TO NEAR 70 ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF SHOULD BE
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES BY LATE SATURDAY AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO ELONGATE FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THE GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
PINCHING OFF THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROF MAKING A CLOSED LOW WHICH
WOULD GIVE THE REGION A DECENT SHOT AT PRECIP. UNTIL THE MORE RECENT
12Z RUN THE ECMWF SHOWED A SIMILAR BUT SLOWER SOLUTION. THE 12Z
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED OFF ALONG THE US/CA BORDER WITH AN OPEN
TROF IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH THE TROF REMAINS OPEN IT
MATCHES THE SPEED OF THE GFS ALMOST PERFECTLY. FOR NOW PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE FORECAST STARTING LATE SATURDAY WITH
HIGH POPS EXISTING OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE BIGGER CHALLENGE
COMES WITH PRECIP TYPE LATE SUNDAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE REGION PENDING THAT THE LOW IS CLOSED. BOTH MODELS SHOW 850 MB
TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE 00Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF SHOWED 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -5C. SNOW WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY IF TEMPS CAN COOL DOWN FAST ENOUGH...BUT
FOR NOW THE MENTION WILL BE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID 40S ON MONDAY WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK
DOWN BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 35 61 41 60 38 / 0 0 10 10 10
TULIA 35 61 42 59 42 / 0 0 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 35 61 43 59 41 / 0 0 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 38 61 42 59 43 / 0 0 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 39 63 44 59 43 / 0 0 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 43 61 44 59 43 / 0 0 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 40 61 44 59 45 / 0 0 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 39 66 43 62 47 / 0 0 10 10 10
SPUR 38 64 44 62 48 / 0 0 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 39 66 45 63 50 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ032-038-044.
&&
$$
07/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
127 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS
UP TOWARD THE JERSEY COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MERGE WITH
THE COASTAL LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NEW ENGLAND. ONCE THIS
HAPPENS OUR AREA WILL STAY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 110 AM EST TUESDAY...
RADAR SHOWING EDGE OF SOLID PRECIP ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FROM PATRICK COUNTY VA NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...WITH JUST SCATTERED POCKETS OF PRECIP WEST. WITH THE SW
CWA CLEARING OF PRECIP CANCELLED THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FROM
PULASKI AND WYTHE SOUTH TO CARROLL AND GRAYSON. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE STILL POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BUT
OVERALL THREAT OF ICY ROADS IS TOO LOW TO HAVE AN ADVISORY.
REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TIL 8 AM...THOUGH
IF THINGS CLEAR OUT SOONER...A FEW MORE COUNTIES COULD BE CLEARED
BY 4 AM.
TEMPS ARE RUNNING GENERALLY JUST BELOW FREEZING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 30S OUT EAST.
THE 00Z NAM AND THE LATEST RAP WERE SHOWING MOST OF THE QPF
STAYING TOWARD LYH AND NORTHEAST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING.
WHERE THE ADVISORY IS IN PLACE...ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION....
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP IN THE WEST WILL HOLD OFF TIL AROUND OR AFTER
DAYBREAK WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES AND THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS BEGIN.
FOR TUESDAY...THE FLOW TURNS QUICKLY NORTHWEST BEHIND DEEPENING
SURFACE CYCLONE AND INCREASING COLD ADVECTION...WITH SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF OUR WESTERN CWA...
ESPECIALLY LATE IN DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM TUESDAY PER INCREASING COLD AIR
ADVECTION...BUT THINK WE MANAGE THE 40S MOST AREAS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION WILL PUT A DRAG ON THE THERMOMETER. BY THE END OF
THE DAY...AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST
GREENBRIER COUNTY...AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF NC. ELSEWHERE...MAYBE SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. BIGGEST DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL BECOME BLUSTERY AS WE PROGRESS
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO ANY WARM NOSE CONCERNS IN
THE LOWER THERMAL PROFILE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPING NOREASTER. THIS WILL
BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNWIND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY EAST TO NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS TIME
PROGRESSES THROUGH THURSDAY...COVERAGE OF THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
SOME OF THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL BE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FT
MSL AND REACH THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
SNOWFALL TOTALS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE GREATEST
ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV WITH A 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
WILL MAINLY BE UNDER AN INCH. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN ASHE AND
WATAUGA COUNTIES NC WILL EXPERIENCE AROUND ONE INCH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. OTHER SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE MAINLY A FEW TENTHS
OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
OTHER PORTIONS OF ASHE AND WATAUGA COUNTY NC.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...
MODELS ARE NOW IN THE SAME BALLPARK FOR THE EXTENDED...JUST NOT SURE
IF THE GAME IS FOOTBALL OR SOCCER. EVOLUTION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER PATTERN WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW DOING A SIT AND SPIN
OVER THE NORTHEAST US IS A FAVORED SOLUTION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEGIN TO SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH GFS BEING TYPICALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AND EURO DIGGING
IN ITS HEELS. BY MONDAY UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CROSSING THE
REGION AS NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EVEN WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE SMALL. NW FLOW UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WRN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE WINDING
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. MAYBE SOME
FLURRIES FAR WRN SLOPES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT LOOKING
LIKE QUIET WEATHER ELSEWHERE. WE THEN GET INTO SOME WEAK LIFT AS A
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME SPRINKLES GOING BUT NOTHING
TOO EXCITING...AND GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT WILL GO
WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC CONFINED TO WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST MONDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLIDE UP THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS IT
GOES. SYSTEM WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION AS E HEAD
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE
NW. EXPECT WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH KDAN/KROA/KLYH
AROUND 10Z/5AM. UNTIL THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF LIFR CEILINGS.
PROLONGED UPSLOPE PATTERN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERY PRECIP...WITH DOWNSLOPE AND IMPROVEMENT
EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z. AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS...NW
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MORE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW BACK INTO KLYH AND
KDAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SCENARIO.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR UPSLOPE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ASIDE FOR SOME LINGERING MVFR
CLOUDINESS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH VFR AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ014-
017>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...MBS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1058 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY WITH
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS. LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FRI INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1040 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISING ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT
THROUGH 15Z...BUT HOLDING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING FROM THE INTERIOR
MERRIMACK VALLEY THROUGH CENTRAL AND NW MA. NOTING THAT TEMPS HAVE
BEEN WARMING ALOFT WITH RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION AS SEEN
ON 12Z KOKX SOUNDING /UP TO +5C AT 866 MB AND FREEZING LEVEL UP TO
6500 FT/...SO TENDING TO MIX DOWN WITH THE AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVING INTO S COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS RISE EVEN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS AS THE SLUG OVER HEAVY PRECIP MOVES IN.
NOTING 1005 HPA LOW PRES JUST NE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AT
15Z...WHICH APPEARS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK THOUGH TUCKED A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
NOTING REPORTS OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH/HR RAINFALL RATES ACROSS S CT AND
LONG ISLAND OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. THIS...ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
FROM NESDIS SATELLITE PRECIP ESTIMATE REPORTING A MAX PWAT PLUME
OF 1.65 INCHES WELL S OF LONG ISLAND EARLIER THIS MORNING. VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS ALSO NOTED S OF LONG ISLAND. DRY SLOT NOTED ON NE
REGIONAL 88D RADAR E OF KACY...WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT N-NE DURING
THE DAY. ALSO NOTED 06Z GFS OP RUN SUGGESTING UP TO 1.5 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL RATES IN TWO 6-HOUR PERIODS BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z MOVING
ACROSS RI/E MA. CONSIDERING THE NESDIS OBSERVATIONS...FELT THIS
WAS NOT TOO BAD SO UPDATED TO INCREASE PRECIP AMOUNTS. THIS GIVES
STORM TOTAL PRECIP OF 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS RI/E MA.
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION TO THE
FORECAST. WILL ALSO MONITOR FOR THE CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER THAT MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED ACROSS S COASTAL RI/MA. NOTING C/G LIGHTNING TO
THE E OF THE DRY SLOT. ALSO UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPTS TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
* SYNOPTICALLY...
PRESENT OFFSHORE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC CONUS BECOMES USURPED BY
AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE E-CONUS. ACROSS A REGION OF
FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / ATTENDANT DYNAMICS / STRONG FORCING AND
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT YIELDS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING LIFTING N INTO S NEW ENGLAND
BY EVENING. THE LOW BECOMES STALLED AND CUTOFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW UP
AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE ON NEARLY ALL SIDES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEK.
* HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...
AS THE LOW DEEPENS...EXPECT DECENT LOW-LEVEL TROWALING OF THE
WARM-CONVEYER-BELT BENEATH THE RRQ/LFQ OF ATTENDANT UPPER-LEVEL
JET AXES. COMBINATION OF THE CONVERGENT LEADING NOSE OF ISENTROPIC
UPSLOPE LENDING TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT AGAINST
NEIGHBORING HIGH PRESSURE YIELDING STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
IN A REGION OF MINOR -EPV INSTABILITY BENEATH AFOREMENTIONED DEEP
LAYER ASCENT LIKELY TO RESULT IN A ROUGHLY W-E BANDING SETUP OF
HIGHER WSR-88D RETURNS WITHIN A WIDESPREAD COMMA-SHAPED PRECIP
FIELD ALONG THE N-PERIPHERY OF THE H85 LOW WITH THE FRONT-END
THUMP OF PRECIP ANTICIPATED AROUND MIDDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
EARLY EVENING.
WILL EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
WITH HEIGHT OF THE E-NE WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN CONCURRENT WITH
TIMING OF HIGH TIDE CENTERED AROUND 1 PM BELIEVE SURGE ALONG WITH
BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS /SEE THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS/ WILL RESULT IN POOR-DRAINAGE ISSUES FOR COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. ANTICIPATE DRAINS TO BACK-UP BECOMING OVER-TOPPED
RESULTING IN SUSCEPTIBLE LOW- LYING AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS TO
BECOME FLOODED.
AM ALSO CONCERNED FOR EVEN THOSE COMMUNITIES WITHIN THE COASTAL
PLAIN IN VICINITY OF RIVERS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE TIDE /I.E.
TAUNTON RIVER...LOWER CONNECTICUT/. COULD ALSO SEE SOME EXACERBATED
FLOOD ISSUES FOR THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. PWATS OF
1.25-INCHES FORECAST /ROUGHLY +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL/
AND FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED. GROUND IS PRETTY SOLID /IMPERVIOUS/ THUS EXPECT
MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO BECOME RUNOFF. MAJORITY OF MAINSTEM RIVERS
OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAIN...SO CONCERNS
LIE IN THE REALM OF URBAN / POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF
DRAINS ARE STILL LEAF-CLOGGED. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN IS WITHIN THE
METRO-AREA CORRIDORS...ESPECIALLY BOSTON-PROVIDENCE. MAY NEED TO
EXPAND THE WATCH ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NW MA PENDING THE TIMING AT
WHICH WINTRY-PRECIP TYPES TRANSITION TO RAIN.
* WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
OUTCOMES DEPENDENT ON THERMAL FIELDS ALOFT...WHERE AROUND H925-H85
BY MORNING CONDITIONS ARE WARMING CONSIDERABLY UP AGAINST COLDER AIR
AND HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N/W. A SW-NE FREEZING LINE AROUND NW-CT
INTO S NH INITIALLY MODIFIES NW AS THE LOW DEEPENS RESULTING IN THE
INCREASE OF THE SE WARM-MOIST-CONVEYER-BELT. EXPECT THICKNESSES
TO GRADUALLY RISE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT INTO EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...AREAS BELOW FREEZING ERODE WITH INCREASING ONSHORE
E/NE-WINDS DURING THE MORNING /MORE ON THAT LATER/. UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH 09.0Z HIGH-RES MODELS DIFFERING IN TIMING OF EROSION.
AS MENTIONED IN PRIOR DISCUSSIONS...FOR AREAS THAT ARE WITHIN OR
ON THE CUSP OF BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY 1-2C...LINGERING AN
HOUR OR TWO MORE OR LESS CAN MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE WITH REGARDS
TO WINTER-WEATHER HEAD-LINES. H975-925 AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW IS
NOTABLY PERSISTENT AND STRONG OUT OF THE W AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES
TOWARDS S NEW ENGLAND. BUT NOT MUCH OF A N-COMPONENT NOR FROM
ARCTIC-SOURCE REGIONS...SO BELIEVE THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO MAINTAIN
/ PERSIST COLD AIR OVER THE REGION AGAINST STRONG ONSHORE E-FLOW.
WILL GO CLOSE TO THE NEAR-TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WHILE INCORPORATING
THE WRF-NMM WITH REGARDS TO THERMAL FIELDS...WHICH ARE HANDLING THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECENTLY. PREFERENCE TO THE 09.0Z ECMWF IS ALSO
GIVEN ESPECIALLY WHEN EVALUATING H100-H85 THICKNESSES. ONLY WRF-ARW
AND RAP LEAN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE OVER ALL OTHERS.
ALSO WILL GO WITH A TOP-DOWN APPROACH TOWARDS PRECIPITATION-TYPE
THAT INCORPORATES THE INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE S WITHIN OR
ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE REGION.
SO OVERALL...EXPECTING THE GRADUAL EROSION OF THE COASTAL-FRONT WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE E-FLOW. PUSH OF WARMER AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING LOW WILL RESULT IN PRECIP-TYPE TRANSITION FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO A SLEET / FREEZING RAIN MIX. THIS HAS SUBSEQUENTLY BUMPED DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RESULTING IN A RANGE OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS NW MA.
MOST OF THE REGION CHANGES OVER TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY
WITH ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES CONTINUALLY UNDER
THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN.
HAVE DROPPED WINTER-STORM WATCHES AND REPLACED WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. HAVE TRIMMED THE EASTERN-EXTENT WITH EROSION OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THE SURGE OF WARMER AIR ONSHORE. AGAIN...THE
THERMAL FIELDS DISCUSSION ABOVE GIVE AN INDICATION OF PREFERRED
MODEL GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES DROP MAINLY
AROUND THE MIDDAY HOURS.
MID-LEVEL DRY-SLOT WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING OCCLUSION BEGINNING
TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD RESULT IN A LULL OF PRECIPITATION AS WE GO
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...
NOTING E-WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL WILL BE AROUND 55 MPH AROUND THE MIDDAY
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS...THE PRESENCE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT LENDING TO
AN INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO CONSIDER A
HIGH WIND WARNING. THIS DESPITE WARMER AIR WIGGLING ITS WAY UP FROM
THE S AT THE SURFACE...AND A WARMER OCEAN /THOUGH NOW AROUND THE LOW-
50S/. BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL BE LIMITED. HIGH-END WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTS EXCEEDING
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THUS WENT WITH THE WIND ADVISORY.
COULD PRECIPITATION-DRAG PROCESSES BRING FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE? YES...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE MIX WHICH IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR SE-WATERS ADJACENT TO
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE GONE WITH THE HEADLINES THAT CONVEY THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE.
* COASTAL FLOODING...
SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
SEE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU AS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY EXITS
* IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI INTO THIS WEEKEND
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...FAVORED A CONSENSUS BLEND TO UPDATE
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS WAS TO SMOOTH OVER THE MINOR
DIFFERENCES INTO FRIDAY...AS WELL AS MINIMIZE ERROR AFTER THAT
POINT.
CLOSED LOW WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND...AND 09/00Z GUIDANCE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FINALLY MOVING OUT TO SEA SATURDAY NIGHT. ONE OF THE PRIMARY
ISSUES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOW MUCH WILL BE LEFTOVER TO US IN
GENERATING PRECIPITATION IS ANOTHER MATTER. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF A GRADUAL DRYING OUT PROCESS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
12Z UPDATE...
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS WITH MAINLY +RA. AN ISOLATED TSRA IS
POSSIBLE FOR FAR SE-COASTAL TERMINALS. OTHERWISE GRADUAL EROSION
TO N/W OF FZRA/PL/SN INTO THE EARLY-AFTERNOON HOURS DURING WHICH
TIME WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE E WITH STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG
THE E-SHORELINE MAINLY AROUND 40 KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS UP
TO 50 KT. WILL ALSO SEE AN ACCOMPANYING LLWS THREAT WITH WINDS
AROUND 2 KFT AGL OUT OF THE E AROUND 60 KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FEEL CONFIDENT WITH TRENDS BUT NOT SO MUCH WITH SPECIFICS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF CONTINUED +RA WITH INCREASING E-WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
40 KT ANTICIPATED TOWARDS THE MIDDAY HRS. WIND ADVISORY LENDING
TO ISSUANCE OF AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FZRA PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS...THEN CHANGING OVER
TO RAIN. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON TIMING BUT CONFIDENT WITH
TRENDS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR IN
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR IN ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
1030 AM UPDATE...
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON NOTING SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 10-15 FT ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND EVEN PUSHING INTO MASS BAY ON THE E FETCH.
HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE THE SEAS TO AT LEAST THESE LEVELS. EXPECT
STRONGEST WINDS TO PUSH INTO THE WATERS. GUSTS UP TO 33 KT REPORTS
AT BUOY 44020 /NANTUCKET SOUND/ AND 31 KT AT BOTH MASS BAY BUOYS
WITH 35 KT GUSTS AT THE BUZZARDS BAY TOWER AT 15Z. FORECAST
THROUGH TODAY PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE GONE WITH STORM WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER WATERS WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF GUSTS AROUND 45-50 KT. BUT GREATER CONFIDENCE OF
THE INNER WATERS REACHING HIGH-END GALE WARNING CRITERIA
PERMITTED THE DISCONTINUING OF THE STORM WATCH. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED GUST UP TO 50 KTS OVER THE INNER WATERS...BUT WITH IT
NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD...KEPT WITH GALE WARNINGS.
STRONGEST E-WINDS OCCURRING TOWARDS THE MIDDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SEAS BUILDING 15 TO 20 FEET WITH INCREASING E WINDS AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA PRESENTLY
AS IT LIFTS N INTO S NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
ACCOMPANYING HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL YIELD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ON THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OCEAN-EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY
DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WEST/SOUTHWEST GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT AS WELL. ALSO SHOULD SEE LEFTOVER SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS
SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW 5 FT ACROSS ALL BUT THE OUTERMOST
COASTAL WATERS FRI EVENING...THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS ALL WATERS SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATED 950 AM TUE...
EXPANDED FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE MARTHAS VINEYARD AND BLOCK ISLAND.
ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES...COMBINATION
OF RAINFALL AND RISING TIDE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ESPECIALLY ON E/SE SHORELINES. BUOYS
REPORTING 5-6 FT SEAS ON NANTUCKET SOUND AND 11 FT SE OF BLOCK
ISLAND. SIMILAR SITUATION FOR CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT URBAN
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN RI AND E MA. ALREADY SEEING RAINFALL
RATES OF NEARLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN CT /KSNC ASOS/
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE OVER OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
URBAN HOT SPOTS SUCH AS PEABODY...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD AND
CRANSTON MAY BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. TOTALS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW 3 OR 4 INCH TOTALS NOT OUT OF
QUESTION NEAR I-95 CORRIDOR.
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY...BUT WORST CASE
WOULD BE FOR MINOR FLOODING IF TOTALS EXCEED 3 INCHES.
NOT EXPECTING FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS. LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE
BRINGS LOWER CT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM TO ACTION STAGE...WHICH IS
PRIMARILY BASED ON SURGE OF 2 FT INTO LOWER CT RIVER. WE MAY ALSO
SEE SIMILAR SURGE ALONG PAWCATUCK RIVER NEAR WESTERLY RI WHICH
COULD BRING RISES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR EASTERN MA. COMBINATION OF
WINDS / SEAS / SURGE OF AROUND 1.5 TO 2 FEET DURING THE MIDDAY
HIGH-TIDE YIELDS THE LIKELIHOOD OF OBSERVING MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION FOR E-FACING SHORELINES WHERE SEAS OF
12 TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.
AS NOTED IN THE HYDROLOGY PORTION ABOVE...LOCAL STREAMS AND
TRIBUTARIES EMPTYING INTO THE SEA COULD SEE BACK-FILLING ISSUES AS
THE HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE TIME OF HIGH-TIDE. COULD
SEE FLOODING ISSUES EXACERBATED FOR EASTERN MA SHORELINE
COMMUNITIES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ005>007-011>024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
019>024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ005-006-011-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ003-004-009-010-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ002-008.
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>234-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235>237.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1016 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHILE MANY
VALLEY AND EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE A TRANSITION OF A WINTRY MIX TO
RAIN...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE CATSKILLS
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH A MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN
THESE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH THE STORM REMAINING CLOSE TO THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1014 AM EST...A 1004 HPA COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO BE JUST
E/SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
MSAS MSLP ANALYSIS. THE BEST 3-HR MSLP /5-6 HPAS/FALLS ARE NORTH
OF THE SFC CYCLONE. THE LATEST KENX VWP SHOWS A STRONG E/SE LLJ
IN THR 3-6 KFT AGL LAYER OF 25-35 KTS. THIS PRONOUNCED LLJ HAS
YIELDED SOME SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING OFF THE SRN GREENS...NRN
BERKS...AND THE NRN TACONICS. THE PCPN IS FINALLY TRYING TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER HUDSON REGION...AND SRN VT. THE SRN DACKS
ARE ALSO SLOWLY...BUT FINALLY...GETTING INTO A THE PCPN SHIELD. THE
LLJ CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY JUST S/SE OF THE REGION...AND THE BEST
QG LIFT WITH THE EARLY PHASES OF THE STORM IS OVER COASTAL SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND AT THIS TIME. THE STRONG LIFT WILL IMPACT
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.
PTYPES HAVE FAVORED SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. THE 12Z
KALY SOUNDING INDICATES A SLEET PROFILE. SOME HAS OCCURRED IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH THE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. SOME ICE REPORTS
HAVE COME IN...WITH PERU IN THE S-CNTRL BERKS HAVING TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH. THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM WITH KPOU ABOVE FREEZING
WITH LIGHT RAIN...WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION TO MDT-HVY RAIN OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WE WILL LET THE ADVISORY RUN UNTIL 11 AM...FOR
ERN ULSTER/DUTCHESS/LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...AS SOME TEMPS ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW OR ARE HOVERING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.
FURTHER NORTH...THE DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED KPSF/KAQW/KDDH TO
ALLOW JUMP ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE MID AND U30S. SOME WET BULB
COOLING SHOULD LOWER THESE TEMPS CLOSER TO FREEZING. PTYPES WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDING THE HOURLIES AND A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND. MIXED PCPN WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...N-CNTRL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SNOW...WITH A LIGHT MIXED TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN...BEFORE
GOING BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINED
TUNED.
SOME OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN SNOW VS. WINTRY MIX VS. RAIN.
THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS/HELDERBERGS AND POINTS WESTWARD INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER NORTH...THE PRECIP WILL EXPAND INTO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS BY THE EARLY AFTN HOURS. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
SNOW FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...BUT WILL LIKELY MIX FOR
THE SARATOGA/GLENS FALLS AREA. EVEN UP THERE...A CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTN HOURS...AS WARM AIR...BOTH AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
FURTHER EAST...THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX FOR SOUTHERN
VT/BERKSHIRES AS WELL...EVEN ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN...AS WARM
AIR ALOFT OF NEARLY 3 DEGREES C MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
SOME SNOW/SLEET WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER...BUT
THE CHANGEOVER WILL PREVENT WARNING LEVEL SNOW FROM OCCURRING. SOME
STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN GREENS...TACONICS AND
BERKSHIRES...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE FULL
BRUNT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN DUE TO STABLE LOW LEVELS...BUT SOME GUSTS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS THAT CHANNEL E-SE FLOW WELL. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS WIND THREAT IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.
AS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING...STEADY PRECIP WILL START TO SHUT OFF ACROSS OUR
AREA. THE SFC LOW WILL BE MEANDERING OVER THE NYC/LONG ISLAND
AREA...AND THE 500 HPA LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE DELMARVA
AREA. AS A RESULT...SOME ADDITIONAL ON AND OFF PRECIP WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE PVA/CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
STEADY OR HEAVY. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS
ALOFT...AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A LACK OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE
CLOUDS...AS THE BEST DEEPER AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS SHIFT AWAY FROM
THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY
OCCUR...ALONG WITH SOME BURSTS OF SNOW/RAIN/SLEET AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION.
BECAUSE OF ALL OF THIS...WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE NOT ISSUED
OUTSIDE THE CATSKILLS/MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS
BECAUSE WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL /7 INCHES IN 12 HOURS OR 9 INCHES
IN 24 HOURS/ IS NOT EXPECTED. STILL...A WINTRY MIX...EVEN THOUGH
IT WILL GO OVER TO RAIN...WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IN THE
CAPITAL REGION/GLENS FALLS AND SARATOGA AREAS/BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN
VT/...AND THIS IS WHY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THESE AREAS WILL VARY
BASED ON ELEVATION...WITH JUST UP TO A FEW INCHES IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. JUST A COATING
TO AN INCH OF SNOW/SLEET/ICE IS EXPECTED FOR THE
POUGHKEEPSIE/KINGSTON AREA AND NW CT...AS PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY GO
OVER TO RAIN THERE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT...AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOOD CONCERNS. SEE
OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS THREAT.
MEANWHILE... 6 TO 12 INCHES LOOK TO ACCUMULATE IN THE
CATSKILLS...HELDERBERGS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND
ADIRONDACKS. EVEN IN THESE AREAS...SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...AND VALLEYS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
CATSKILLS IN THE GREENE COUNTY...AND IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SRN ADIRONDACKS OF WARREN COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL BE RATHER
WET...AND THIS MAY MAKE FOR SOME POWER OUTAGES/DOWNED TREE
LIMBS...ESP CONSIDERING THAT STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
WHILE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHAT WAVE/S/ WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION...MOISTURE WILL WRAP IN OFF THE ATLANTIC TO KEEP THE
HIGH PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST LOCATIONS WILL BE
ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTHWARD. AS FOR THERMAL
PROFILES...WE WILL BE COOLING DOWN THE COLUMN WHERE MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS FOR THE
SPECIFIC...
WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE POINT TOWARD A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
REMAINS JUST OFF THE JERSEY SHORE. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HIGHER
THETA-E /TROWAL/ BACK INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES REMAIN RATHER HIGH OF 3-4 G/KG SO
WHERE IT DOES SNOW...WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.
PER THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND 00Z ECMWF...THIS SEEMS TO LINE
UP FOR OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING WILL
TAKE PLACE AS PER CSTAR RESEARCH...THESE UPPER LOWS ARE QUITE
PROBLEMATIC WITH PROVIDING SPECIFICS WHERE THE HEAVIER QPF WILL FALL.
THURSDAY...AS THE LOW FILLS AND FURTHER REDUCES THE
BAROCLINICITY...THE PRECIP INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH. SO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH
JUST A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
EASTWARD...ITS INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHC-SCT SNOW PROBABILITIES WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING.
WE WILL USE A BLENDED APPROACH TO THE MOS TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE
FAIRLY CLOSE IN VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE LOST ITS BAROCLINICITY BY
THEN RESULTING IN MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST
AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK IN FROM THE
WEST...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS WE SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR A PASSING
SNOW SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING.
IT LOOKS LIKE DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY PREVAIL FOR LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY THE CUT-OFF LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. THE ECMWF IS RATHER SLOW
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE CUT-OFF...LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW UNTIL
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN BY LATE
SATURDAY. AGAIN...THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON CLOUD COVER BUT WE
ARE EXPECTING PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE RISING UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS...SURFACE TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO EXPECTED SHALLOW MIXING THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TRANQUIL WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST FOR MON NT AND TUE. WILL ADD SLIGHT CHC POPS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHETHER A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM YET AGAIN...ALBEIT IN
A WEAKER STATE THAN THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION
TYPES WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 12Z-15Z/TUE. ONCE
IT ARRIVES...EACH TAF SITE WILL EXPERIENCE VARYING PRECIPITATION
TYPES. MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ABOUT 1-2 HOURS AFTER
THE STEADIER PRECIP BEGINS. HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS...
KGFL...STEADY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z-16Z/TUE.
THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR ABOUT 2 HOURS...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
MAINLY A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX BETWEEN 17Z-19Z/TUE. FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...SHOULD THEN CHANGE TO PLAIN
RAIN BETWEEN 22Z/TUE-00Z/WED...AND GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY CHANGING BACK TO SLEET OR WET
SNOW...WILL LINGER THROUGH 12Z/WED.
KALB...PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TRANSFORM TO STEADIER FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/TUE. SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ESP AT THE ONSET. THEN...MAINLY A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
MIX...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
19Z-21Z/TUE...BEFORE CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN AND SOME SLEET. RAIN AND
SLEET SHOULD CHANGE TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BETWEEN
01Z-03Z/WED. SOME SNOW COULD MIX BACK IN AFTER 05Z/WED.
KPOU...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET WILL CHANGE TO PLAIN
RAIN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/TUE...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE
INTERMITTENT AND LIGHTER AFTER 03Z/WED.
KPSF...PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BECOME A STEADY MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/TUE...WITH SOME WET SNOW POSSIBLY
MIXED IN AT TIMES. THIS MIX SHOULD CHANGE TO A PLAIN RAIN/SLEET MIX
BETWEEN 16Z-18Z/TUE...WHICH MAY BE MODERATE TO HVY AT TIMES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY OR AFTER
05Z/WED...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE N-NE AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS WITH GUST NEAR OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT...DUTCHESS COUNTY NEW YORK AND EASTERN ULSTER COUNTY
NEW YORK...FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FOR NORTHWESTERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL PRIMARY AS SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX. MEANWHILE...ACROSS SOUTHERN AND VALLEY AREAS...PRECIP WILL
BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX AND TRANSITION TO RAIN.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT VALUES WILL BE 0.50 OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS TO NEARLY 2.00 INCHES OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH
MUCH OF THIS FALLING AS RAINFALL OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY
DURING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN PRECIP
WILL BE HEAVIEST. THIS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE
GROUND IS FROZEN. RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE LIKELY...AND
MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AND
IT/S TRIBUTARIES IN NW CT.
IN ADDITION...THE STRONG COASTAL LOW IS ALLOWING FOR SOME TIDAL
FLOODING ALONG COASTAL AREAS...AND THIS COULD CAUSE A BACKUP OF
WATER ON THE HUDSON RIVER. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE IN THE POUGHKEEPSIE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT IN AREAS THAT SEE THE HEAVIEST LIQUID PRECIP TODAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO RECEDE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>040-042-043-047-048-051-058-063-082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ041-
049-050-052>054-059>061-083-084.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ064>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ064>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
953 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY WITH
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS. LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FRI INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
720 AM UPDATE...
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TIMING THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO DETERMINING HOW MUCH ICING OCCURS
THIS MORNING. ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT EARLIER TO
ADDRESS THIS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. BEYOND THAT...FORECAST
REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
* HIGHLIGHTS...
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES ERODING WITH TIME TO THE N/W
- SNOW / ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN AT WINTER-WX-ADVISORY LEVELS
- HEAVY RAIN OF 2-3 INCHES LENDING TO POSSIBLE FLOODING
- STRONG TO DAMAGING E-WINDS YIELDING WIND ADV HEADLINES
* SYNOPTICALLY...
PRESENT OFFSHORE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC CONUS BECOMES USURPED BY
AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE E-CONUS. ACROSS A REGION OF
FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / ATTENDANT DYNAMICS / STRONG FORCING AND
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT YIELDS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING LIFTING N INTO S NEW ENGLAND
BY EVENING. THE LOW BECOMES STALLED AND CUTOFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW UP
AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE ON NEARLY ALL SIDES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEK.
* HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...
INTERROGATING DEEPER...AS THE LOW DEEPENS...EXPECT DECENT LOW-LEVEL
TROWALING OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT BENEATH THE RRQ/LFQ OF
ATTENDANT UPPER-LEVEL JET AXES. COMBINATION OF THE CONVERGENT
LEADING NOSE OF ISENTROPIC UPSLOPE LENDING TO THE TIGHTENING OF
THE THERMAL GRADIENT AGAINST NEIGHBORING HIGH PRESSURE YIELDING
STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN A REGION OF MINOR -EPV
INSTABILITY BENEATH AFOREMENTIONED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT LIKELY TO
RESULT IN A ROUGHLY W-E BANDING SETUP OF HIGHER WSR-88D RETURNS
WITHIN A WIDESPREAD COMMA-SHAPED PRECIP FIELD ALONG THE
N-PERIPHERY OF THE H85 LOW WITH THE FRONT-END THUMP OF PRECIP
ANTICIPATED AROUND MIDDAY AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY EVENING.
WHEW...DEEP BREATH. FEEL THE HRRR SIMULATED RADAR TRENDS ARE
SHOWING THIS QUITE WELL.
WILL EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
WITH HEIGHT OF THE E/NE-WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN CONCURRENT WITH TIMING
OF HIGH TIDE CENTERED AROUND 1 PM BELIEVE SURGE ALONG WITH BUILDING
WAVE HEIGHTS /SEE THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/ WILL
RESULT IN POOR-DRAINAGE ISSUES FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES. ANTICIPATE
DRAINS TO BACK-UP BECOMING OVER-TOPPED RESULTING IN SUSCEPTIBLE LOW-
LYING AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS TO BECOME FLOODED.
AM ALSO CONCERNED FOR EVEN THOSE COMMUNITIES WITHIN THE COASTAL
PLAIN IN VICINITY OF RIVERS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE TIDE /I.E.
TAUNTON RIVER...LOWER CONNECTICUT/. COULD ALSO SEE SOME EXACERBATED
FLOOD ISSUES FOR THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. PWATS OF
1.25-INCHES FORECAST /ROUGHLY +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL/
AND FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED. GROUND IS PRETTY SOLID /IMPERVIOUS/ THUS EXPECT
MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO BECOME RUNOFF. MAJORITY OF MAINSTEM RIVERS
OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAIN...SO CONCERNS
LIE IN THE REALM OF URBAN / POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF
DRAINS ARE STILL LEAF-CLOGGED. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN IS WITHIN THE
METRO-AREA CORRIDORS...ESPECIALLY BOSTON-PROVIDENCE. MAY NEED TO
EXPAND THE WATCH ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NW MA PENDING THE TIMING AT
WHICH WINTRY-PRECIP TYPES TRANSITION TO RAIN.
* WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
OUTCOMES DEPENDENT ON THERMAL FIELDS ALOFT...WHERE AROUND H925-H85
BY MORNING CONDITIONS ARE WARMING CONSIDERABLY UP AGAINST COLDER AIR
AND HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N/W. A SW-NE FREEZING LINE AROUND NW-CT
INTO S NH INITIALLY MODIFIES NW AS THE LOW DEEPENS RESULTING IN THE
INCREASE OF THE SE WARM-MOIST-CONVEYER-BELT. EXPECT THICKNESSES
TO GRADUALLY RISE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT INTO EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...AREAS BELOW FREEZING ERODE WITH INCREASING ONSHORE
E/NE-WINDS DURING THE MORNING /MORE ON THAT LATER/. UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH 09.0Z HIGH-RES MODELS DIFFERING IN TIMING OF EROSION.
AS MENTIONED IN PRIOR DISCUSSIONS...FOR AREAS THAT ARE WITHIN OR
ON THE CUSP OF BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY 1-2C...LINGERING AN
HOUR OR TWO MORE OR LESS CAN MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE WITH REGARDS
TO WINTER-WEATHER HEAD-LINES. H975-925 AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW IS
NOTABLY PERSISTENT AND STRONG OUT OF THE W AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES
TOWARDS S NEW ENGLAND. BUT NOT MUCH OF A N-COMPONENT NOR FROM
ARCTIC-SOURCE REGIONS...SO BELIEVE THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO MAINTAIN
/ PERSIST COLD AIR OVER THE REGION AGAINST STRONG ONSHORE E-FLOW.
WILL GO CLOSE TO THE NEAR-TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WHILE INCORPORATING
THE WRF-NMM WITH REGARDS TO THERMAL FIELDS...WHICH ARE HANDLING THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECENTLY. PREFERENCE TO THE 09.0Z ECMWF IS ALSO
GIVEN ESPECIALLY WHEN EVALUATING H100-H85 THICKNESSES. ONLY WRF-ARW
AND RAP LEAN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE OVER ALL OTHERS.
ALSO WILL GO WITH A TOP-DOWN APPROACH TOWARDS PRECIPITATION-TYPE
THAT INCORPORATES THE INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE S WITHIN OR
ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE REGION.
SO OVERALL...EXPECTING THE GRADUAL EROSION OF THE COASTAL-FRONT WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE E-FLOW. PUSH OF WARMER AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING LOW WILL RESULT IN PRECIP-TYPE TRANSITION FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO A SLEET / FREEZING RAIN MIX. THIS HAS SUBSEQUENTLY BUMPED DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RESULTING IN A RANGE OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS NW MA.
MOST OF THE REGION CHANGES OVER TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY
WITH ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES CONTINUALLY UNDER
THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN.
HAVE DROPPED WINTER-STORM WATCHES AND REPLACED WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. HAVE TRIMMED THE EASTERN-EXTENT WITH EROSION OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THE SURGE OF WARMER AIR ONSHORE. AGAIN...THE
THERMAL FIELDS DISCUSSION ABOVE GIVE AN INDICATION OF PREFERRED
MODEL GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES DROP MAINLY
AROUND THE MIDDAY HOURS.
MID-LEVEL DRY-SLOT WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING OCCLUSION BEGINNING
TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD RESULT IN A LULL OF PRECIPITATION AS WE GO
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...
NOTING E-WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL WILL BE AROUND 55 MPH AROUND THE MIDDAY
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS...THE PRESENCE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT LENDING TO
AN INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO CONSIDER A
HIGH WIND WARNING. THIS DESPITE WARMER AIR WIGGLING ITS WAY UP FROM
THE S AT THE SURFACE...AND A WARMER OCEAN /THOUGH NOW AROUND THE LOW-
50S/. BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL BE LIMITED. HIGH-END WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTS EXCEEDING
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THUS WENT WITH THE WIND ADVISORY.
COULD PRECIPITATION-DRAG PROCESSES BRING FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE? YES...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE MIX WHICH IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR SE-WATERS ADJACENT TO
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE GONE WITH THE HEADLINES THAT CONVEY THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE.
* COASTAL FLOODING...
SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
SEE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU AS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY EXITS
* IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI INTO THIS WEEKEND
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...FAVORED A CONSENSUS BLEND TO UPDATE
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS WAS TO SMOOTH OVER THE MINOR
DIFFERENCES INTO FRIDAY...AS WELL AS MINIMIZE ERROR AFTER THAT
POINT.
CLOSED LOW WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND...AND 09/00Z GUIDANCE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FINALLY MOVING OUT TO SEA SATURDAY NIGHT. ONE OF THE PRIMARY
ISSUES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOW MUCH WILL BE LEFTOVER TO US IN
GENERATING PRECIPITATION IS ANOTHER MATTER. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF A GRADUAL DRYING OUT PROCESS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
12Z UPDATE...
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS WITH MAINLY +RA. AN ISOLATED TSRA IS
POSSIBLE FOR FAR SE-COASTAL TERMINALS. OTHERWISE GRADUAL EROSION
TO N/W OF FZRA/PL/SN INTO THE EARLY-AFTERNOON HOURS DURING WHICH
TIME WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE E WITH STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG
THE E-SHORELINE MAINLY AROUND 40 KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS UP
TO 50 KT. WILL ALSO SEE AN ACCOMPANYING LLWS THREAT WITH WINDS
AROUND 2 KFT AGL OUT OF THE E AROUND 60 KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FEEL CONFIDENT WITH TRENDS BUT NOT SO MUCH WITH SPECIFICS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF CONTINUED +RA WITH INCREASING E-WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
40 KT ANTICIPATED TOWARDS THE MIDDAY HRS. WIND ADVISORY LENDING
TO ISSUANCE OF AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FZRA PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS...THEN CHANGING OVER
TO RAIN. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON TIMING BUT CONFIDENT WITH
TRENDS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR IN
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR IN ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
5 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HAVE GONE WITH STORM WARNINGS FOR
THE OUTER WATERS WITH THE EXPECTATION OF GUSTS AROUND 45-50 KT.
BUT GREATER CONFIDENCE OF THE INNER-WATERS REACHING HIGH-END GALE
WARNING CRITERIA PERMITTED THE DISCONTINUING OF THE STORM WATCH.
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED GUST UP TO 50 KTS OVER THE INNER-
WATERS...BUT WITH IT NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD...KEPT WITH
GALE WARNINGS. STRONGEST E-WINDS OCCURRING TOWARDS THE MIDDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SEAS BUILDING 15 TO 20 FEET WITH INCREASING E-WINDS AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA PRESENTLY
AS IT LIFTS N INTO S NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
ACCOMPANYING HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL YIELD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ON THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OCEAN-EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY
DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WEST/SOUTHWEST GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT AS WELL. ALSO SHOULD SEE LEFTOVER SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS
SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW 5 FT ACROSS ALL BUT THE OUTERMOST
COASTAL WATERS FRI EVENING...THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS ALL WATERS SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATED 950 AM TUE...
EXPANDED FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE MARTHAS VINEYARD AND BLOCK ISLAND.
ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES...COMBINATION
OF RAINFALL AND RISING TIDE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ESPECIALLY ON E/SE SHORELINES. BUOYS
REPORTING 5-6 FT SEAS ON NANTUCKET SOUND AND 11 FT SE OF BLOCK
ISLAND. SIMILAR SITUATION FOR CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT URBAN
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN RI AND E MA. ALREADY SEEING RAINFALL
RATES OF NEARLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN CT /KSNC ASOS/
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE OVER OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
URBAN HOT SPOTS SUCH AS PEABODY...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD AND
CRANSTON MAY BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. TOTALS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW 3 OR 4 INCH TOTALS NOT OUT OF
QUESTION NEAR I-95 CORRIDOR.
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY...BUT WORST CASE
WOULD BE FOR MINOR FLOODING IF TOTALS EXCEED 3 INCHES.
NOT EXPECTING FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS. LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE
BRINGS LOWER CT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM TO ACTION STAGE...WHICH IS
PRIMARILY BASED ON SURGE OF 2 FT INTO LOWER CT RIVER. WE MAY ALSO
SEE SIMILAR SURGE ALONG PAWCATUCK RIVER NEAR WESTERLY RI WHICH
COULD BRING RISES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR EASTERN MA. COMBINATION OF
WINDS / SEAS / SURGE OF AROUND 1.5 TO 2 FEET DURING THE MIDDAY
HIGH-TIDE YIELDS THE LIKELIHOOD OF OBSERVING MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION FOR E-FACING SHORELINES WHERE SEAS OF
12 TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.
AS NOTED IN THE HYDROLOGY PORTION ABOVE...LOCAL STREAMS AND
TRIBUTARIES EMPTYING INTO THE SEA COULD SEE BACK-FILLING ISSUES AS
THE HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE TIME OF HIGH-TIDE. COULD
SEE FLOODING ISSUES EXACERBATED FOR EASTERN MA SHORELINE
COMMUNITIES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ005>007-011>024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
019>024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ005-006-011-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ003-004-009-010-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ002-008.
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235>237.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...JWD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
721 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY WITH
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS. LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FRI INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
720 AM UPDATE...
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TIMING THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO DETERMINING HOW MUCH ICING OCCURS
THIS MORNING. ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT EARLIER TO
ADDRESS THIS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. BEYOND THAT...FORECAST
REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
* HIGHLIGHTS...
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES ERODING WITH TIME TO THE N/W
- SNOW / ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN AT WINTER-WX-ADVISORY LEVELS
- HEAVY RAIN OF 2-3 INCHES LENDING TO POSSIBLE FLOODING
- STRONG TO DAMAGING E-WINDS YIELDING WIND ADV HEADLINES
* SYNOPTICALLY...
PRESENT OFFSHORE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC CONUS BECOMES USURPED BY
AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE E-CONUS. ACROSS A REGION OF
FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / ATTENDANT DYNAMICS / STRONG FORCING AND
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT YIELDS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING LIFTING N INTO S NEW ENGLAND
BY EVENING. THE LOW BECOMES STALLED AND CUTOFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW UP
AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE ON NEARLY ALL SIDES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEK.
* HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...
INTERROGATING DEEPER...AS THE LOW DEEPENS...EXPECT DECENT LOW-LEVEL
TROWALING OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT BENEATH THE RRQ/LFQ OF
ATTENDANT UPPER-LEVEL JET AXES. COMBINATION OF THE CONVERGENT
LEADING NOSE OF ISENTROPIC UPSLOPE LENDING TO THE TIGHTENING OF
THE THERMAL GRADIENT AGAINST NEIGHBORING HIGH PRESSURE YIELDING
STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN A REGION OF MINOR -EPV
INSTABILITY BENEATH AFOREMENTIONED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT LIKELY TO
RESULT IN A ROUGHLY W-E BANDING SETUP OF HIGHER WSR-88D RETURNS
WITHIN A WIDESPREAD COMMA-SHAPED PRECIP FIELD ALONG THE
N-PERIPHERY OF THE H85 LOW WITH THE FRONT-END THUMP OF PRECIP
ANTICIPATED AROUND MIDDAY AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY EVENING.
WHEW...DEEP BREATH. FEEL THE HRRR SIMULATED RADAR TRENDS ARE
SHOWING THIS QUITE WELL.
WILL EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
WITH HEIGHT OF THE E/NE-WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN CONCURRENT WITH TIMING
OF HIGH TIDE CENTERED AROUND 1 PM BELIEVE SURGE ALONG WITH BUILDING
WAVE HEIGHTS /SEE THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/ WILL
RESULT IN POOR-DRAINAGE ISSUES FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES. ANTICIPATE
DRAINS TO BACK-UP BECOMING OVER-TOPPED RESULTING IN SUSCEPTIBLE LOW-
LYING AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS TO BECOME FLOODED.
AM ALSO CONCERNED FOR EVEN THOSE COMMUNITIES WITHIN THE COASTAL
PLAIN IN VICINITY OF RIVERS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE TIDE /I.E.
TAUNTON RIVER...LOWER CONNECTICUT/. COULD ALSO SEE SOME EXACERBATED
FLOOD ISSUES FOR THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. PWATS OF
1.25-INCHES FORECAST /ROUGHLY +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL/
AND FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED. GROUND IS PRETTY SOLID /IMPERVIOUS/ THUS EXPECT
MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO BECOME RUNOFF. MAJORITY OF MAINSTEM RIVERS
OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAIN...SO CONCERNS
LIE IN THE REALM OF URBAN / POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF
DRAINS ARE STILL LEAF-CLOGGED. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN IS WITHIN THE
METRO-AREA CORRIDORS...ESPECIALLY BOSTON-PROVIDENCE. MAY NEED TO
EXPAND THE WATCH ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NW MA PENDING THE TIMING AT
WHICH WINTRY-PRECIP TYPES TRANSITION TO RAIN.
* WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
OUTCOMES DEPENDENT ON THERMAL FIELDS ALOFT...WHERE AROUND H925-H85
BY MORNING CONDITIONS ARE WARMING CONSIDERABLY UP AGAINST COLDER AIR
AND HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N/W. A SW-NE FREEZING LINE AROUND NW-CT
INTO S NH INITIALLY MODIFIES NW AS THE LOW DEEPENS RESULTING IN THE
INCREASE OF THE SE WARM-MOIST-CONVEYER-BELT. EXPECT THICKNESSES
TO GRADUALLY RISE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT INTO EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...AREAS BELOW FREEZING ERODE WITH INCREASING ONSHORE
E/NE-WINDS DURING THE MORNING /MORE ON THAT LATER/. UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH 09.0Z HIGH-RES MODELS DIFFERING IN TIMING OF EROSION.
AS MENTIONED IN PRIOR DISCUSSIONS...FOR AREAS THAT ARE WITHIN OR
ON THE CUSP OF BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY 1-2C...LINGERING AN
HOUR OR TWO MORE OR LESS CAN MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE WITH REGARDS
TO WINTER-WEATHER HEAD-LINES. H975-925 AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW IS
NOTABLY PERSISTENT AND STRONG OUT OF THE W AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES
TOWARDS S NEW ENGLAND. BUT NOT MUCH OF A N-COMPONENT NOR FROM
ARCTIC-SOURCE REGIONS...SO BELIEVE THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO MAINTAIN
/ PERSIST COLD AIR OVER THE REGION AGAINST STRONG ONSHORE E-FLOW.
WILL GO CLOSE TO THE NEAR-TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WHILE INCORPORATING
THE WRF-NMM WITH REGARDS TO THERMAL FIELDS...WHICH ARE HANDLING THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECENTLY. PREFERENCE TO THE 09.0Z ECMWF IS ALSO
GIVEN ESPECIALLY WHEN EVALUATING H100-H85 THICKNESSES. ONLY WRF-ARW
AND RAP LEAN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE OVER ALL OTHERS.
ALSO WILL GO WITH A TOP-DOWN APPROACH TOWARDS PRECIPITATION-TYPE
THAT INCORPORATES THE INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE S WITHIN OR
ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE REGION.
SO OVERALL...EXPECTING THE GRADUAL EROSION OF THE COASTAL-FRONT WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE E-FLOW. PUSH OF WARMER AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING LOW WILL RESULT IN PRECIP-TYPE TRANSITION FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO A SLEET / FREEZING RAIN MIX. THIS HAS SUBSEQUENTLY BUMPED DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RESULTING IN A RANGE OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS NW MA.
MOST OF THE REGION CHANGES OVER TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY
WITH ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES CONTINUALLY UNDER
THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN.
HAVE DROPPED WINTER-STORM WATCHES AND REPLACED WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. HAVE TRIMMED THE EASTERN-EXTENT WITH EROSION OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THE SURGE OF WARMER AIR ONSHORE. AGAIN...THE
THERMAL FIELDS DISCUSSION ABOVE GIVE AN INDICATION OF PREFERRED
MODEL GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES DROP MAINLY
AROUND THE MIDDAY HOURS.
MID-LEVEL DRY-SLOT WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING OCCLUSION BEGINNING
TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD RESULT IN A LULL OF PRECIPITATION AS WE GO
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...
NOTING E-WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL WILL BE AROUND 55 MPH AROUND THE MIDDAY
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS...THE PRESENCE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT LENDING TO
AN INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO CONSIDER A
HIGH WIND WARNING. THIS DESPITE WARMER AIR WIGGLING ITS WAY UP FROM
THE S AT THE SURFACE...AND A WARMER OCEAN /THOUGH NOW AROUND THE LOW-
50S/. BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL BE LIMITED. HIGH-END WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTS EXCEEDING
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THUS WENT WITH THE WIND ADVISORY.
COULD PRECIPITATION-DRAG PROCESSES BRING FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE? YES...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE MIX WHICH IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR SE-WATERS ADJACENT TO
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE GONE WITH THE HEADLINES THAT CONVEY THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE.
* COASTAL FLOODING...
SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU AS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY EXITS
* IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI INTO THIS WEEKEND
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...FAVORED A CONSENSUS BLEND TO UPDATE
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS WAS TO SMOOTH OVER THE MINOR
DIFFERENCES INTO FRIDAY...AS WELL AS MINIMIZE ERROR AFTER THAT
POINT.
CLOSED LOW WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND...AND 09/00Z GUIDANCE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FINALLY MOVING OUT TO SEA SATURDAY NIGHT. ONE OF THE PRIMARY
ISSUES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOW MUCH WILL BE LEFTOVER TO US IN
GENERATING PRECIPITATION IS ANOTHER MATTER. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF A GRADUAL DRYING OUT PROCESS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
12Z UPDATE...
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS WITH MAINLY +RA. AN ISOLATED TSRA IS
POSSIBLE FOR FAR SE-COASTAL TERMINALS. OTHERWISE GRADUAL EROSION
TO N/W OF FZRA/PL/SN INTO THE EARLY-AFTERNOON HOURS DURING WHICH
TIME WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE E WITH STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG
THE E-SHORELINE MAINLY AROUND 40 KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS UP
TO 50 KT. WILL ALSO SEE AN ACCOMPANYING LLWS THREAT WITH WINDS
AROUND 2 KFT AGL OUT OF THE E AROUND 60 KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FEEL CONFIDENT WITH TRENDS BUT NOT SO MUCH WITH SPECIFICS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF CONTINUED +RA WITH INCREASING E-WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
40 KT ANTICIPATED TOWARDS THE MIDDAY HRS. WIND ADVISORY LENDING
TO ISSUANCE OF AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FZRA PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS...THEN CHANGING OVER
TO RAIN. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON TIMING BUT CONFIDENT WITH
TRENDS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR IN
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR IN ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
5 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HAVE GONE WITH STORM WARNINGS FOR
THE OUTER WATERS WITH THE EXPECTATION OF GUSTS AROUND 45-50 KT.
BUT GREATER CONFIDENCE OF THE INNER-WATERS REACHING HIGH-END GALE
WARNING CRITERIA PERMITTED THE DISCONTINUING OF THE STORM WATCH.
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED GUST UP TO 50 KTS OVER THE INNER-
WATERS...BUT WITH IT NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD...KEPT WITH
GALE WARNINGS. STRONGEST E-WINDS OCCURRING TOWARDS THE MIDDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SEAS BUILDING 15 TO 20 FEET WITH INCREASING E-WINDS AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA PRESENTLY
AS IT LIFTS N INTO S NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
ACCOMPANYING HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL YIELD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ON THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OCEAN-EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY
DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WEST/SOUTHWEST GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT AS WELL. ALSO SHOULD SEE LEFTOVER SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS
SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW 5 FT ACROSS ALL BUT THE OUTERMOST
COASTAL WATERS FRI EVENING...THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS ALL WATERS SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WITH A HARDENED GROUND BY ALL THE RECENT COLD WEATHER...AND THE
COMBINED THREAT OF BOTH LEAF-CLOGGED DRAINS AND THE HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE E-SHORELINE AROUND MIDDAY...HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AND CONTINUED THE WATCH OVERALL
WITH THE THREAT OF URBAN AND POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. SMALLER
STREAMS AND RIVERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST COULD SEE FLOODING
AS HIGH TIDE AND SUBSEQUENT SURGE VIA E-WINDS LIMITS DRAINAGE TO
THE OCEAN. RIVERS CONSEQUENTIALLY BACK-FILLING.
MAIN AREA OF FOCUS IS ON AREAS AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
TOWARDS THE S/E. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SE WHICH COULD
YIELD LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.
LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE BRINGS LOWER CT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM TO
ACTION STAGE...WHICH IS PRIMARILY BASED ON SURGE OF 2 FT INTO
LOWER CT RIVER. WE MAY ALSO SEE SIMILAR SURGE ALONG PAWCATUCK
RIVER NEAR WESTERLY RI WHICH COULD BRING RISES SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR EASTERN MA. COMBINATION OF
WINDS / SEAS / SURGE OF AROUND 1.5 TO 2 FEET DURING THE MIDDAY
HIGH-TIDE YIELDS THE LIKELIHOOD OF OBSERVING MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION FOR E-FACING SHORELINES WHERE SEAS OF
12 TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.
AS NOTED IN THE HYDROLOGY PORTION ABOVE...LOCAL STREAMS AND
TRIBUTARIES EMPTYING INTO THE SEA COULD SEE BACK-FILLING ISSUES AS
THE HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE TIME OF HIGH-TIDE. COULD
SEE FLOODING ISSUES EXACERBATED FOR EASTERN MA SHORELINE
COMMUNITIES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
019>024.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ005>007-011>022-024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ005-006-011-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ003-004-009-010-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ002-008.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235>237.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
632 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHILE MANY
VALLEY AND EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE A TRANSITION OF A WINTRY MIX TO
RAIN...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE CATSKILLS
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH A MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN
THESE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH THE STORM REMAINING CLOSE TO THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 632 AM EST...A 1007 HPA COASTAL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
OFF THE COAST OF WALLOPS ISLAND VIRGINIA . THIS LOW IS CONTINUING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD...AND 3 HR PRESSURE FALLS OF IN EXCESS OF 5 MBS ARE
OCCURRING OFF THE COAST OF THE DELAWARE BEACHES. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
REGION...AND THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE CAPTURING THE SFC
WAVE...AND CAUSING IT TO BASICALLY STALL JUST OFF THE NEW JERSEY
SHORE TODAY.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS IS ADVECTING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION. THE LATEST REGIONAL
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS A STEADY BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN NJ AND THE NYC METRO AREA...AND THIS PRECIP IS QUICKLY
ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. IN ADVANCE OF THIS STEADY
PRECIP...SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/MIST IS OCCURRING...AS THE
LOW LEVELS ARE STARTING TO MOISTEN UP IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SLUG
OF PRECIP. WE/VE RECEIVED REPORTS OF ROADS BECOMING SLICK DUE TO
THIS VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FALLING ON SURFACES WITH THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE. A FEW SPS STATEMENTS/SOCIAL MEDIA UPDATES...IN
ADDITION TO OUR ONGOING WSWS...HAVE ADDRESSED THIS FREEZING
DRIZZLE THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AS A WARM NOSE BETWEEN 850 AND 925
HPA WILL BE IN PLACE. AS THIS PRECIP ADVANCES FURTHER NORTH...IT
LOOKS TO BE SNOW/SLEET ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE A
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX AS IT REACHES THE CAPITAL REGION AND
TACONICS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUR SFC TEMPS CLOSELY...AS AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COULD CAUSE US TO MAKE DRASTIC
CHANGES TO OUR ONGOING FORECAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
FREEZING RAIN...AND NOT SNOW...IS THE FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS EASTWARD THIS MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN SNOW VS. WINTRY MIX VS. RAIN.
THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS/HELDERBERGS AND POINTS WESTWARD THIS MORNING...BUT ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW HOURS FOR
THE HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND NW CT...BEFORE PRECIP CHANGES TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN A PLAIN RAIN. SFC TEMPS LOOK TO NUDGE JUST
ABOVE FREEZING BY THE MID MORNING FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
LATE MORNING HOURS IN THE CAPITAL REGION. AS STATED
EARLIER...THESE SFC TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED VERY
CLOSELY...TO SEE IF THE SFC TEMPS HANG COLDER LONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED.
FURTHER NORTH...THE PRECIP WILL EXPAND INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS BY THE EARLY AFTN HOURS. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
SNOW FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...BUT WILL LIKELY MIX FOR
THE SARATOGA/GLENS FALLS AREA. EVEN UP THERE...A CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTN HOURS...AS WARM AIR...BOTH AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
FURTHER EAST...THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX FOR SOUTHERN
VT/BERKSHIRES AS WELL...EVEN ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN...AS WARM
AIR ALOFT OF NEARLY 3 DEGREES C MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
SOME SNOW/SLEET WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER...BUT
THE CHANGEOVER WILL PREVENT WARNING LEVEL SNOW FROM OCCURRING. SOME
STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN GREENS...TACONICS AND
BERKSHIRES...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE FULL
BRUNT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN DUE TO STABLE LOW LEVELS...BUT SOME GUSTS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS THAT CHANNEL E-SE FLOW WELL. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS WIND THREAT IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.
AS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING...STEADY PRECIP WILL START TO SHUT OFF ACROSS OUR
AREA. THE SFC LOW WILL BE MEANDERING OVER THE NYC/LONG ISLAND
AREA...AND THE 500 HPA LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE DELMARVA
AREA. AS A RESULT...SOME ADDITIONAL ON AND OFF PRECIP WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE PVA/CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
STEADY OR HEAVY. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS
ALOFT...AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A LACK OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE
CLOUDS...AS THE BEST DEEPER AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS SHIFT AWAY FROM
THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY
OCCUR...ALONG WITH SOME BURSTS OF SNOW/RAIN/SLEET AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION.
BECAUSE OF ALL OF THIS...WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE NOT ISSUED
OUTSIDE THE CATSKILLS/MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS
BECAUSE WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL /7 INCHES IN 12 HOURS OR 9 INCHES
IN 24 HOURS/ IS NOT EXPECTED. STILL...A WINTRY MIX...EVEN THOUGH
IT WILL GO OVER TO RAIN...WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IN THE
CAPITAL REGION/GLENS FALLS AND SARATOGA AREAS/BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN
VT/...AND THIS IS WHY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THESE AREAS WILL VARY
BASED ON ELEVATION...WITH JUST UP TO A FEW INCHES IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. JUST A COATING
TO AN INCH OF SNOW/SLEET/ICE IS EXPECTED FOR THE
POUGHKEEPSIE/KINGSTON AREA AND NW CT...AS PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY GO
OVER TO RAIN THERE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT...AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOOD CONCERNS. SEE
OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS THREAT.
MEANWHILE... 6 TO 12 INCHES LOOK TO ACCUMULATE IN THE
CATSKILLS...HELDERBERGS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND
ADIRONDACKS. EVEN IN THESE AREAS...SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...AND VALLEYS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
CATSKILLS IN THE GREENE COUNTY...AND IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SRN ADIRONDACKS OF WARREN COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL BE RATHER
WET...AND THIS MAY MAKE FOR SOME POWER OUTAGES/DOWNED TREE
LIMBS...ESP CONSIDERING THAT STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
WHILE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHAT WAVE/S/ WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION...MOISTURE WILL WRAP IN OFF THE ATLANTIC TO KEEP THE
HIGH PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST LOCATIONS WILL BE
ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTHWARD. AS FOR THERMAL
PROFILES...WE WILL BE COOLING DOWN THE COLUMN WHERE MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS FOR THE
SPECIFIC...
WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE POINT TOWARD A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
REMAINS JUST OFF THE JERSEY SHORE. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HIGHER
THETA-E /TROWAL/ BACK INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES REMAIN RATHER HIGH OF 3-4 G/KG SO
WHERE IT DOES SNOW...WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.
PER THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND 00Z ECMWF...THIS SEEMS TO LINE
UP FOR OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING WILL
TAKE PLACE AS PER CSTAR RESEARCH...THESE UPPER LOWS ARE QUITE
PROBLEMATIC WITH PROVIDING SPECIFICS WHERE THE HEAVIER QPF WILL FALL.
THURSDAY...AS THE LOW FILLS AND FURTHER REDUCES THE
BAROCLINICITY...THE PRECIP INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH. SO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH
JUST A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
EASTWARD...ITS INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHC-SCT SNOW PROBABILITIES WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING.
WE WILL USE A BLENDED APPROACH TO THE MOS TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE
FAIRLY CLOSE IN VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE LOST ITS BAROCLINICITY BY
THEN RESULTING IN MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST
AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK IN FROM THE
WEST...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS WE SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR A PASSING
SNOW SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING.
IT LOOKS LIKE DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY PREVAIL FOR LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY THE CUT-OFF LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. THE ECMWF IS RATHER SLOW
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE CUT-OFF...LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW UNTIL
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN BY LATE
SATURDAY. AGAIN...THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON CLOUD COVER BUT WE
ARE EXPECTING PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE RISING UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS...SURFACE TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO EXPECTED SHALLOW MIXING THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TRANQUIL WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST FOR MON NT AND TUE. WILL ADD SLIGHT CHC POPS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHETHER A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM YET AGAIN...ALBEIT IN
A WEAKER STATE THAN THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION
TYPES WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 12Z-15Z/TUE. ONCE
IT ARRIVES...EACH TAF SITE WILL EXPERIENCE VARYING PRECIPITATION
TYPES. MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ABOUT 1-2 HOURS AFTER
THE STEADIER PRECIP BEGINS. HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS...
KGFL...STEADY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z-16Z/TUE.
THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR ABOUT 2 HOURS...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
MAINLY A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX BETWEEN 17Z-19Z/TUE. FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...SHOULD THEN CHANGE TO PLAIN
RAIN BETWEEN 22Z/TUE-00Z/WED...AND GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY CHANGING BACK TO SLEET OR WET
SNOW...WILL LINGER THROUGH 12Z/WED.
KALB...PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TRANSFORM TO STEADIER FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/TUE. SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ESP AT THE ONSET. THEN...MAINLY A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
MIX...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
19Z-21Z/TUE...BEFORE CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN AND SOME SLEET. RAIN AND
SLEET SHOULD CHANGE TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BETWEEN
01Z-03Z/WED. SOME SNOW COULD MIX BACK IN AFTER 05Z/WED.
KPOU...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET WILL CHANGE TO PLAIN
RAIN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/TUE...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE
INTERMITTENT AND LIGHTER AFTER 03Z/WED.
KPSF...PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BECOME A STEADY MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/TUE...WITH SOME WET SNOW POSSIBLY
MIXED IN AT TIMES. THIS MIX SHOULD CHANGE TO A PLAIN RAIN/SLEET MIX
BETWEEN 16Z-18Z/TUE...WHICH MAY BE MODERATE TO HVY AT TIMES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY OR AFTER
05Z/WED...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE N-NE AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS WITH GUST NEAR OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT...DUTCHESS COUNTY NEW YORK AND EASTERN ULSTER COUNTY
NEW YORK...FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FOR NORTHWESTERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL PRIMARY AS SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX. MEANWHILE...ACROSS SOUTHERN AND VALLEY AREAS...PRECIP WILL
BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX AND TRANSITION TO RAIN.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT VALUES WILL BE 0.50 OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS TO NEARLY 2.00 INCHES OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH
MUCH OF THIS FALLING AS RAINFALL OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY
DURING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN PRECIP
WILL BE HEAVIEST. THIS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE
GROUND IS FROZEN. RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE LIKELY...AND
MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AND
IT/S TRIBUTARIES IN NW CT.
IN ADDITION...THE STRONG COASTAL LOW IS ALLOWING FOR SOME TIDAL
FLOODING ALONG COASTAL AREAS...AND THIS COULD CAUSE A BACKUP OF
WATER ON THE HUDSON RIVER. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE IN THE POUGHKEEPSIE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT IN AREAS THAT SEE THE HEAVIEST LIQUID PRECIP TODAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO RECEDE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>040-042-043-047-048-051-058-063-082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ041-
049-050-052>054-059>061-083-084.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ064>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ064>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
528 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY WITH
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS. LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FRI INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES ERODING WITH TIME TO THE N/W
- SNOW / ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN AT WINTER-WX-ADVISORY LEVELS
- HEAVY RAIN OF 2-3 INCHES LENDING TO POSSIBLE FLOODING
- STRONG TO DAMAGING E-WINDS YIELDING WIND ADV HEADLINES
*/ SYNOPTICALLY...
PRESENT OFFSHORE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC CONUS BECOMES USURPED BY
AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE E-CONUS. ACROSS A REGION OF
FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / ATTENDANT DYNAMICS / STRONG FORCING AND
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT YIELDS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING LIFTING N INTO S NEW ENGLAND
BY EVENING. THE LOW BECOMES STALLED AND CUTOFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW UP
AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE ON NEARLY ALL SIDES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEK.
*/ HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...
INTERROGATING DEEPER...AS THE LOW DEEPENS...EXPECT DECENT LOW-LEVEL
TROWALING OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT BENEATH THE RRQ/LFQ OF
ATTENDANT UPPER-LEVEL JET AXES. COMBINATION OF THE CONVERGENT
LEADING NOSE OF ISENTROPIC UPSLOPE LENDING TO THE TIGHTENING OF
THE THERMAL GRADIENT AGAINST NEIGHBORING HIGH PRESSURE YIELDING
STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN A REGION OF MINOR -EPV
INSTABILITY BENEATH AFOREMENTIONED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT LIKELY TO
RESULT IN A ROUGHLY W-E BANDING SETUP OF HIGHER WSR-88D RETURNS
WITHIN A WIDESPREAD COMMA-SHAPED PRECIP FIELD ALONG THE
N-PERIPHERY OF THE H85 LOW WITH THE FRONT-END THUMP OF PRECIP
ANTICIPATED AROUND MIDDAY AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY EVENING.
WHEW...DEEP BREATH. FEEL THE HRRR SIMULATED RADAR TRENDS ARE
SHOWING THIS QUITE WELL.
WILL EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
WITH HEIGHT OF THE E/NE-WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN CONCURRENT WITH TIMING
OF HIGH TIDE CENTERED AROUND 1 PM BELIEVE SURGE ALONG WITH BUILDING
WAVE HEIGHTS /SEE THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/ WILL
RESULT IN POOR-DRAINAGE ISSUES FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES. ANTICIPATE
DRAINS TO BACK-UP BECOMING OVER-TOPPED RESULTING IN SUSCEPTIBLE LOW-
LYING AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS TO BECOME FLOODED.
AM ALSO CONCERNED FOR EVEN THOSE COMMUNITIES WITHIN THE COASTAL
PLAIN IN VICINITY OF RIVERS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE TIDE /I.E.
TAUNTON RIVER...LOWER CONNECTICUT/. COULD ALSO SEE SOME EXACERBATED
FLOOD ISSUES FOR THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. PWATS OF
1.25-INCHES FORECAST /ROUGHLY +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL/
AND FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED. GROUND IS PRETTY SOLID /IMPERVIOUS/ THUS EXPECT
MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO BECOME RUNOFF. MAJORITY OF MAINSTEM RIVERS
OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAIN...SO CONCERNS
LIE IN THE REALM OF URBAN / POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF
DRAINS ARE STILL LEAF-CLOGGED. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN IS WITHIN THE
METRO-AREA CORRIDORS...ESPECIALLY BOSTON-PROVIDENCE. MAY NEED TO
EXPAND THE WATCH ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NW MA PENDING THE TIMING AT
WHICH WINTRY-PRECIP TYPES TRANSITION TO RAIN.
*/ WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
OUTCOMES DEPENDENT ON THERMAL FIELDS ALOFT...WHERE AROUND H925-H85
BY MORNING CONDITIONS ARE WARMING CONSIDERABLY UP AGAINST COLDER AIR
AND HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N/W. A SW-NE FREEZING LINE AROUND NW-CT
INTO S NH INITIALLY MODIFIES NW AS THE LOW DEEPENS RESULTING IN THE
INCREASE OF THE SE WARM-MOIST-CONVEYER-BELT. EXPECT THICKNESSES
TO GRADUALLY RISE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT INTO EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...AREAS BELOW FREEZING ERODE WITH INCREASING ONSHORE
E/NE-WINDS DURING THE MORNING /MORE ON THAT LATER/. UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH 09.0Z HIGH-RES MODELS DIFFERING IN TIMING OF EROSION.
AS MENTIONED IN PRIOR DISCUSSIONS...FOR AREAS THAT ARE WITHIN OR
ON THE CUSP OF BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY 1-2C...LINGERING AN
HOUR OR TWO MORE OR LESS CAN MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE WITH REGARDS
TO WINTER-WEATHER HEAD-LINES. H975-925 AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW IS
NOTABLY PERSISTENT AND STRONG OUT OF THE W AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES
TOWARDS S NEW ENGLAND. BUT NOT MUCH OF A N-COMPONENT NOR FROM
ARCTIC-SOURCE REGIONS...SO BELIEVE THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO MAINTAIN
/ PERSIST COLD AIR OVER THE REGION AGAINST STRONG ONSHORE E-FLOW.
WILL GO CLOSE TO THE NEAR-TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WHILE INCORPORATING
THE WRF-NMM WITH REGARDS TO THERMAL FIELDS...WHICH ARE HANDLING THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECENTLY. PREFERENCE TO THE 09.0Z ECMWF IS ALSO
GIVEN ESPECIALLY WHEN EVALUATING H100-H85 THICKNESSES. ONLY WRF-ARW
AND RAP LEAN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE OVER ALL OTHERS.
ALSO WILL GO WITH A TOP-DOWN APPROACH TOWARDS PRECIPITATION-TYPE
THAT INCORPORATES THE INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE S WITHIN OR
ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE REGION.
SO OVERALL...EXPECTING THE GRADUAL EROSION OF THE COASTAL-FRONT WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE E-FLOW. PUSH OF WARMER AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING LOW WILL RESULT IN PRECIP-TYPE TRANSITION FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO A SLEET / FREEZING RAIN MIX. THIS HAS SUBSEQUENTLY BUMPED DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RESULTING IN A RANGE OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS NW MA.
MOST OF THE REGION CHANGES OVER TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY
WITH ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES CONTINUALLY UNDER
THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN.
HAVE DROPPED WINTER-STORM WATCHES AND REPLACED WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. HAVE TRIMMED THE EASTERN-EXTENT WITH EROSION OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THE SURGANCE OF WARMER AIR ONSHORE. AGAIN...THE
THERMAL FIELDS DISCUSSION ABOVE GIVE AN INDICATION OF PREFERRED
MODEL GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES DROP MAINLY
AROUND THE MIDDAY HOURS.
MID-LEVEL DRY-SLOT WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING OCCLUSION BEGINNING
TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD RESULT IN A LULL OF PRECIPITATION AS WE GO
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
*/ STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...
NOTING E-WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL WILL BE AROUND 55 MPH AROUND THE MIDDAY
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS...THE PRESENCE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT LENDING TO
AN INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO CONSIDER A
HIGH WIND WARNING. THIS DESPITE WARMER AIR WIGGLING ITS WAY UP FROM
THE S AT THE SURFACE...AND A WARMER OCEAN /THOUGH NOW AROUND THE LOW-
50S/. BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL BE LIMITED. HIGH-END WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTS EXCEEDING
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THUS WENT WITH THE WIND ADVISORY.
COULD PRECIPITATION-DRAG PROCESSES BRING FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE? YES...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE MIX WHICH IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR SE-WATERS ADJACENT TO
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE GONE WITH THE HEADLINES THAT CONVEY THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE.
*/ COASTAL FLOODING...
SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU AS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY EXITS
* IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI INTO THIS WEEKEND
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...FAVORED A CONSENSUS BLEND TO UPDATE
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS WAS TO SMOOTH OVER THE MINOR
DIFFERENCES INTO FRIDAY...AS WELL AS MINIMIZE ERROR AFTER THAT
POINT.
CLOSED LOW WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND...AND 09/00Z GUIDANCE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FINALLY MOVING OUT TO SEA SATURDAY NIGHT. ONE OF THE PRIMARY
ISSUES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOW MUCH WILL BE LEFTOVER TO US IN
GENERATING PRECIPITATION IS ANOTHER MATTER. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF A GRADUAL DRYING OUT PROCESS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10Z UPDATE...
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS WITH MAINLY +RA. AN ISOLATED TSRA IS
POSSIBLE FOR FAR SE-COASTAL TERMINALS. OTHERWISE GRADUAL EROSION
TO N/W OF FZRA/PL/SN INTO THE EARLY-AFTERNOON HOURS DURING WHICH
TIME WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE E WITH STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG
THE E-SHORELINE MAINLY AROUND 40 KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS UP
TO 50 KT. WILL ALSO SEE AN ACCOMPANYING LLWS THREAT WITH WINDS
AROUND 2 KFT AGL OUT OF THE E AROUND 60 KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FEEL CONFIDENT WITH TRENDS BUT NOT SO MUCH WITH SPECIFICS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF CONTINUED +RA WITH INCREASING E-WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
40 KT ANTICIPATED TOWARDS THE MIDDAY HRS. WIND ADV LENDING TO
ISSUANCE OF AWW.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FZRA PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS THEN CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON TIMING BUT CONFIDENT WITH TRENDS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR IN
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR IN ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
5 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HAVE GONE WITH STORM WARNINGS FOR
THE OUTER WATERS WITH THE EXPECTATION OF GUSTS AROUND 45-50 KT.
BUT GREATER CONFIDENCE OF THE INNER-WATERS REACHING HIGH-END GALE
WARNING CRITERIA PERMITTED THE DISCONTINUING OF THE STORM WATCH.
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED GUST UP TO 50 KTS OVER THE INNER-
WATERS...BUT WITH IT NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD...KEPT WITH
GALE WARNINGS. STRONGEST E-WINDS OCCURRING TOWARDS THE MIDDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SEAS BUILDING 15 TO 20 FEET WITH INCREASING E-WINDS AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA PRESENTLY
AS IT LIFTS N INTO S NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
ACCOMPANYING HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL YIELD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ON THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OCEAN-EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY
DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WEST/SOUTHWEST GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT AS WELL. ALSO SHOULD SEE LEFTOVER SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS
SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW 5 FT ACROSS ALL BUT THE OUTERMOST
COASTAL WATERS FRI EVENING...THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS ALL WATERS SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WITH A HARDENED GROUND BY ALL THE RECENT COLD WEATHER...AND THE
COMBINED THREAT OF BOTH LEAF-CLOGGED DRAINS AND THE HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE E-SHORELINE AROUND MIDDAY...HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AND CONTINUED THE WATCH OVERALL
WITH THE THREAT OF URBAN AND POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. SMALLER
STREAMS AND RIVERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST COULD SEE FLOODING
AS HIGH TIDE AND SUBSEQUENT SURGE VIA E-WINDS LIMITS DRAINAGE TO
THE OCEAN. RIVERS CONSEQUENTIALLY BACK-FILLING.
MAIN AREA OF FOCUS IS ON AREAS AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
TOWARDS THE S/E. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SE WHICH COULD
YIELD LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.
LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE BRINGS LOWER CT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM TO
ACTION STAGE...WHICH IS PRIMARILY BASED ON SURGE OF 2 FT INTO
LOWER CT RIVER. WE MAY ALSO SEE SIMILAR SURGE ALONG PAWCATUCK
RIVER NEAR WESTERLY RI WHICH COULD BRING RISES SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR EASTERN MA. COMBINATION OF
WINDS / SEAS / SURGE OF AROUND 1.5 TO 2 FEET DURING THE MIDDAY
HIGH-TIDE YIELDS THE LIKELIHOOD OF OBSERVING MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION FOR E-FACING SHORELINES WHERE SEAS OF
12 TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.
AS NOTED IN THE HYDROLOGY PORTION ABOVE...LOCAL STREAMS AND
TRIBUTARIES EMPTYING INTO THE SEA COULD SEE BACK-FILLING ISSUES AS
THE HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE TIME OF HIGH-TIDE. COULD
SEE FLOODING ISSUES EXACERBATED FOR EASTERN MA SHORELINE
COMMUNITIES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-019>024.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ005>007-011>022-024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ005-006-011-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ003-004-009-010-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ002-008.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-
003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-251.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1026 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY
WEAKENS AND MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
FOR OUR WEATHER THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE MID-MORNING UPDATE...THE FORECAST FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS BASICALLY ON TRACK BUT HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME
OF THE HAZARDS. AS OF 900 AM TEMPS ACROSS ALL THE FCST AREA SEEM
TO HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING AND ALL REPORTED PRECIP IS RAIN...SO
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF NW NJ AND ERN PA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
TODAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXPECTED SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...RADAR SHOWS THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN NOW WRAPPING
WWD ACROSS NRN NJ AND INTO ERN PA. THIS AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NWD ALONG WITH THE LOW-LVL STORM CENTER AND BEST EASTERLY
INFLOW. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE AREAS
FROM PHL SWWD...AND ALSO ADD THE TIER OF COUNTIES OVER FAR NW NJ
AND ADJ ERN PA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MULTI-FACETED HAZARD HEADLINE EVENT IN PROGRESS.
FOCUSING ON IMPACTS AND BRIEFLY DISCUSSING SCIENCE WHERE IT MAY BE
HELPFUL.
FLOOD WATCH: WE MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE SW PORTION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH IN OUR MID OR LATE MORNING UPDATE. IT LOOKS TO ME PER THE
RECENT GFS AND HRRR AS WELL AS RADAR THAT THE GREATER RISK FOR
REPEAT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL BE COASTAL AND NORTHERN NJ
AND MAYBE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF KRDG.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING: HAZARD ON TARGET WITH MDT FLOODING ASSURED
AND IT MAY BE A STRONG MODERATE DOWN IN THE CAPE MAY-LEWES AREA.
SURGE OF 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET AT HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. SANDY
HOOK LINKED COUNTIES I THINK MAY ESCAPE MDT FLOODING BUT NO CHANGE
TO THE WARNING. DEPARTURES AT SANDY HOOK ABOUT A FOOT LESS THAN
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE STRONGER INFLOW AND LOWER PRESSURE.
WIND ADVY: BEST POTENTIAL WHERE DESCRIBED ...MAY NEED TO ADD ATLANTIC
COUNTY AT THE LAST MINUTE. FEW GUSTS OF 45 KT EXPECTED MID OR LATE
MORNING. AT 5 AM ..MANY REPORTS AROUND 40 KT DE COAST TO MD ATLANTIC
COAST BORDERING DE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES: CUT THE SE TIER AT 630 AM AND CHANGED
TO HEAVIER ICE ACCUMS THE REMAINING ADVISORY AND ALSO THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. STILL SLEET IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.
WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE NEW ADVISORIES FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
BACKSIDE BANDING DEVELOPS ON BACK BENT MID LEVEL FRONT AND STILL
WAA OVER NYS AND NEW ENGLAND DRIVING LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT
SIDE OF THE 700 LOW. THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL MAY ADD TO THE PROBLEMS AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING.
WINTER STORM WARNING EXTENDED TO 18Z WED TO CAPTURE BACKSIDE SNOW.
THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST. NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE WESTERN PORTION OF CARBON/MONROE COUNTY
WITH EXPECTED MXD FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN AT THE START CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING. THEN THE LIFT WEAKENS LATE
MORNING AND IT MAY TURN TO RAIN OR FREEZING THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL AND THEN WE LOOK FOR POTENTIAL
BANDING AND IF THIS OCCURS...ADDITIONAL MDT OR HEAVY SNOWFALL
WOULD OCCUR. DIFFICULT FORECAST AND WE`RE TRYING TO SLICE THIS
VERY CLOSE TO THE MARK. A WORRISOME FORECAST ON PTYPE.
AT 5AM..SE MONROE COUNTY HEAVY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WE ARE
GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN IN ALLAMUCHY (.1 GLAZE) AND
OXFORD NJ HAS SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM FOR SOME INFO AND CONTINUE THE THEME WRITTEN
IN THE AFD FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE SNOWFALL TO OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AS STRONGER OMEGA AND FGEN COME TOGETHER.
MOSTLY BASED ON WHERE WE THINK THE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
SETUP...IN PENNSYLVANIA. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE PRETTY HEFTY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PA ZONES WEST OF PHILADELPHIA DOYLESTOWN AND
ALLENTOWN OVERNIGHT (EXCT SNOW GROWTH AND I THINK POTENTIAL FOR
4+ IF THE MODELED SCENARIO VERIFIES) AS WE SEE THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN BACK TO SNOW. STILL THINK A SWATH OF 8-10 INCHES IS VERY
POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WESTERN
MONROE AND WESTERN CARBON COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG LOW WHICH WILL MEANDER NORTH/EAST OF
THE REGION. BANDS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ACCUMS POSSIBLE MOSTLY N/W. GFS MODEL OVERNIGHT PAINTS SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS LEHIGH VALLEY NORTH AND WEST...BUT THIS WAS TONED DOWN
SOMEWHAT WITH AN EC SOLUTION MORE LIKELY. WE COULD ADD 1 TO 2
INCHES TO SNOW TOTALS WED N/W.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE LOW STARTS TO RELAX ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. CHC
POPS N/W AND SLGT CHC POPS S/E...THESE POPS DECREASE THU NIGHT.
FRI THRU MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SEVERAL DRY DAYS
EXPECTED. MODERATING TEMPS...WITH READINGS 4 OR 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SAT THEN RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...IFR TO POSSIBLY LOW-END MVFR IN RAIN OR DRIZZLE, AS MOST OF
THE STEADIER MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO BETWEEN
20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT AROUND 35 KT AT TIMES IN VICINITY
OF KACY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STEADIER
RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. GUSTS
DIMINISH LATE TODAY.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS WITH BANDS OF RAIN SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND
RAIN CHANGING TO WET SNOW AT KRDG AND KABE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR IN
BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS AT
TIMES.
FRIDAY: VFR...A FEW WIDELY SCT SHOWERS FAR N/W EARLY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON OUR WATERS WITH NO CHANGES. THERE COULD
BE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING-MIDDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A STORM WARNING NOR DO WE THINK
THEY WILL BE PERSISTENT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UPWARDS OF 15
FEET ACROSS A MAJORITY OF OUR WATERS....POSSIBLY BRIEFLY 17 OR 18
FT AT 44009.
WINDS SUBSIDE LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW PARKED EAST BELMAR. SCA
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH END SCA CONDITIONS WITH GALE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. SEAS MOSTLY 5 TO 9 FEET.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS AND GUSTS CONTINUE WITH LOW
PRESSURE STILL TO NORTHEAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM PHILLY NORTH.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH THE BULK
OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PUSHING NORTH. FOUR COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
ADDED OF THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY, LEHIGH NORTHEAST THROUGH SUSSEX AS
THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME LIQUID.
THE HEAVIER RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE ENDING. RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT,
LONGER IN SOME SPOTS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE WET DUE TO THE
RAINS THE REGION SAW THIS PAST SATURDAY. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A
MORE EFFICIENT RUNOFF.
WHERE IT RAINS THE HEAVIEST, TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. THERE COULD BE SOME TOTALS OVER 3 INCHES.
SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE THE FIRST BODIES OF WATER TO
RESPOND. THEY ALREADY HAVE. THOSE AREAS WHICH DRAIN INTO TIDAL
WATERS COULD SEE INCREASED FLOODING (IN THE MINOR CATEGORY) DUE TO
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES.
ON THE LARGER BODIES OF WATER THAT ARE SUPPORTED BY THE MARFC, THERE
ARE ABOUT A DOZEN FORECAST POINTS THAT EXCEED CAUTION/ACTION STAGE,
A FEW OF THEM LASTING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAJORITY OF
THESE POINT ARE IN NJ.
AS FOR GAUGES HITTING FLOOD STAGE, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON BLACKWELLS
MILLS AND PEMBERTON. IF RUNOFF AND RISES CONTINUE AS EXPECTED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON, FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. PEMBERTON
COULD HIT FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND BLACKWELLS MILLS
COULD HIT FLOOD STAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION.
WATER BUILDUP HAS OCCURRED IN ALL OUR TIDAL WATERS DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL TIDE CYCLES, INCLUDING THE DELAWARE AND CHESAPEAKE BAYS AND
THE DELAWARE RIVER. ANOMALIES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND
2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY, AND 2.5 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CITY. IN THE DELAWARE BAY, ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL, AND IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY 1 FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN THESE ANOMALIES
THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN,
AS THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHWEST, WHICH SHOULD EAT AWAY
AT THESE ANOMALIES, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CITY. LOWER ANOMALIES
COMBINED WITH A SMALLER ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION (0.5 TO 1.0 FOOT
LOWER) SHOULD KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT IN THE MINOR RANGE FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTH.
SO...MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED
BACKBAYS WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE, MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED
ALONG THE SHORES OF THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY, AND MINOR TO LOW END
MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE (NORTH OF REEDY
POINT, INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA), AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. AS ALWAYS, ROUGH SURF
AND HEAVY RAIN AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WILL EXACERBATE THE FLOODING
ISSUE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD RAINFALLS FOR TUESDAY IN OUR HISTORICAL DATABASE.
ACY 2.51 2009
PHL 2.13 2009
ILG 2.28 2009
ABE 1.51 1973
TTN 2.25 1978
GED 1.93 2009
RDG 1.16 2009
MPO 1.82 1974
RECORD SNOWFALL FOR WEDNESDAY (LONG SHOT BUT JUST IN CASE)
PHL 4.3 1904
ILG 2.9 2013
ABE 2.7 2013
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ061-062-103>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>015-
019-020-025>027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-
022-025>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA
CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY
WEAKENS AND MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
FOR OUR WEATHER THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE MID-MORNING UPDATE...THE FORECAST FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS BASICALLY ON TRACK BUT HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME
OF THE HAZARDS. AS OF 900 AM TEMPS ACROSS ALL THE FCST AREA SEEM
TO HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING AND ALL REPORTED PRECIP IS RAIN...SO
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF NW NJ AND ERN PA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
TODAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXPECTED SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...RADAR SHOWS THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN NOW WRAPPING
WWD ACROSS NRN NJ AND INTO ERN PA. THIS AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NWD ALONG WITH THE LOW-LVL STORM CENTER AND BEST EASTERLY
INFLOW. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE AREAS
FROM PHL SWWD...AND ALSO ADD THE TIER OF COUNTIES OVER FAR NW NJ
AND ADJ ERN PA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MULTI-FACETED HAZARD HEADLINE EVENT IN PROGRESS.
FOCUSING ON IMPACTS AND BRIEFLY DISCUSSING SCIENCE WHERE IT MAY BE
HELPFUL.
FLOOD WATCH: WE MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE SW PORTION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH IN OUR MID OR LATE MORNING UPDATE. IT LOOKS TO ME PER THE
RECENT GFS AND HRRR AS WELL AS RADAR THAT THE GREATER RISK FOR
REPEAT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL BE COASTAL AND NORTHERN NJ
AND MAYBE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF KRDG.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING: HAZARD ON TARGET WITH MDT FLOODING ASSURED
AND IT MAY BE A STRONG MODERATE DOWN IN THE CAPE MAY-LEWES AREA.
SURGE OF 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET AT HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. SANDY
HOOK LINKED COUNTIES I THINK MAY ESCAPE MDT FLOODING BUT NO CHANGE
TO THE WARNING. DEPARTURES AT SANDY HOOK ABOUT A FOOT LESS THAN
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE STRONGER INFLOW AND LOWER PRESSURE.
WIND ADVY: BEST POTENTIAL WHERE DESCRIBED ...MAY NEED TO ADD ATLANTIC
COUNTY AT THE LAST MINUTE. FEW GUSTS OF 45 KT EXPECTED MID OR LATE
MORNING. AT 5 AM ..MANY REPORTS AROUND 40 KT DE COAST TO MD ATLANTIC
COAST BORDERING DE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES: CUT THE SE TIER AT 630 AM AND CHANGED
TO HEAVIER ICE ACCUMS THE REMAINING ADVISORY AND ALSO THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. STILL SLEET IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.
WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE NEW ADVISORIES FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
BACKSIDE BANDING DEVELOPS ON BACK BENT MID LEVEL FRONT AND STILL
WAA OVER NYS AND NEW ENGLAND DRIVING LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT
SIDE OF THE 700 LOW. THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL MAY ADD TO THE PROBLEMS AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING.
WINTER STORM WARNING EXTENDED TO 18Z WED TO CAPTURE BACKSIDE SNOW.
THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST. NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE WESTERN PORTION OF CARBON/MONROE COUNTY
WITH EXPECTED MXD FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN AT THE START CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING. THEN THE LIFT WEAKENS LATE
MORNING AND IT MAY TURN TO RAIN OR FREEZING THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL AND THEN WE LOOK FOR POTENTIAL
BANDING AND IF THIS OCCURS...ADDITIONAL MDT OR HEAVY SNOWFALL
WOULD OCCUR. DIFFICULT FORECAST AND WE`RE TRYING TO SLICE THIS
VERY CLOSE TO THE MARK. A WORRISOME FORECAST ON PTYPE.
AT 5AM..SE MONROE COUNTY HEAVY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WE ARE
GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN IN ALLAMUCHY (.1 GLAZE) AND
OXFORD NJ HAS SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM FOR SOME INFO AND CONTINUE THE THEME WRITTEN
IN THE AFD FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE SNOWFALL TO OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AS STRONGER OMEGA AND FGEN COME TOGETHER.
MOSTLY BASED ON WHERE WE THINK THE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
SETUP...IN PENNSYLVANIA. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE PRETTY HEFTY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PA ZONES WEST OF PHILADELPHIA DOYLESTOWN AND
ALLENTOWN OVERNIGHT (EXCT SNOW GROWTH AND I THINK POTENTIAL FOR
4+ IF THE MODELED SCENARIO VERIFIES) AS WE SEE THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN BACK TO SNOW. STILL THINK A SWATH OF 8-10 INCHES IS VERY
POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WESTERN
MONROE AND WESTERN CARBON COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG LOW WHICH WILL MEANDER NORTH/EAST OF
THE REGION. BANDS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ACCUMS POSSIBLE MOSTLY N/W. GFS MODEL OVERNIGHT PAINTS SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS LEHIGH VALLEY NORTH AND WEST...BUT THIS WAS TONED DOWN
SOMEWHAT WITH AN EC SOLUTION MORE LIKELY. WE COULD ADD 1 TO 2
INCHES TO SNOW TOTALS WED N/W.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE LOW STARTS TO RELAX ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. CHC
POPS N/W AND SLGT CHC POPS S/E...THESE POPS DECREASE THU NIGHT.
FRI THRU MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SEVERAL DRY DAYS
EXPECTED. MODERATING TEMPS...WITH READINGS 4 OR 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SAT THEN RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...IFR TO POSSIBLY LOW-END MVFR IN RAIN OR DRIZZLE, AS MOST OF
THE STEADIER MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO BETWEEN
20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT AROUND 35 KT AT TIMES IN VICINITY
OF KACY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STEADIER
RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. GUSTS
DIMINISH LATE TODAY.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS WITH BANDS OF RAIN SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND
RAIN CHANGING TO WET SNOW AT KRDG AND KABE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR IN
BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS AT
TIMES.
FRIDAY: VFR...A FEW WIDELY SCT SHOWERS FAR N/W EARLY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON OUR WATERS WITH NO CHANGES. THERE COULD
BE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING-MIDDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A STORM WARNING NOR DO WE THINK
THEY WILL BE PERSISTENT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UPWARDS OF 15
FEET ACROSS A MAJORITY OF OUR WATERS....POSSIBLY BRIEFLY 17 OR 18
FT AT 44009.
WINDS SUBSIDE LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW PARKED EAST BELMAR. SCA
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH END SCA CONDITIONS WITH GALE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. SEAS MOSTLY 5 TO 9 FEET.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS AND GUSTS CONTINUE WITH LOW
PRESSURE STILL TO NORTHEAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR ZONES INCLUDING PARTS
OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE 1.5 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES,
WILL ADD TO THE ALREADY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RUNOFF INTO AREAS STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS...THE MAINSTEM RIVERS SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
HEAVIEST APPEARS TO BE NNJ AND COASTAL NJ.
SO FAR AS OF 530 AM: MANY REPORTS 1 TO 1.9 INCHES IN CAPE MAY...BURLINGTON
AND ATLANTIC COUNTIES SINCE THE RAIN BEGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE MAIN AREA OF DOUBT IS THE SW END OF THE WATCH IN NORTHERN DE WHERE
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. I COULD SEE THIS PART
OF THE WATCH BEING CANCELLED LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION.
WATER BUILDUP HAS OCCURRED IN ALL OUR TIDAL WATERS DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL TIDE CYCLES, INCLUDING THE DELAWARE AND CHESAPEAKE BAYS AND
THE DELAWARE RIVER. ANOMALIES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND
2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY, AND 2.5 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CITY. IN THE DELAWARE BAY, ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL, AND IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY 1 FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN THESE ANOMALIES
THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN,
AS THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHWEST, WHICH SHOULD EAT AWAY
AT THESE ANOMALIES, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CITY. LOWER ANOMALIES
COMBINED WITH A SMALLER ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION (0.5 TO 1.0 FOOT
LOWER) SHOULD KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT IN THE MINOR RANGE FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTH.
SO...MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED
BACKBAYS WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE, MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED
ALONG THE SHORES OF THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY, AND MINOR TO LOW END
MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE (NORTH OF REEDY
POINT, INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA), AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. AS ALWAYS, ROUGH SURF
AND HEAVY RAIN AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WILL EXACERBATE THE FLOODING
ISSUE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD RAINFALLS FOR TUESDAY IN OUR HISTORICAL DATABASE.
ACY 2.51 2009
PHL 2.13 2009
ILG 2.28 2009
ABE 1.51 1973
TTN 2.25 1978
GED 1.93 2009
RDG 1.16 2009
MPO 1.82 1974
RECORD SNOWFALL FOR WEDNESDAY (LONG SHOT BUT JUST IN CASE)
PHL 4.3 1904
ILG 2.9 2013
ABE 2.7 2013
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ061-062-103>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>015-
019-020-025>027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-
022-025>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA
CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY
WEAKENS AND MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
FOR OUR WEATHER THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE MID-MORNING UPDATE...THE FORECAST FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS BASICALLY ON TRACK BUT HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME
OF THE HAZARDS. AS OF 900 AM TEMPS ACROSS ALL THE FCST AREA SEEM
TO HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING AND ALL REPORTED PRECIP IS RAIN...SO
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF NW NJ AND ERN PA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
TODAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXPECTED SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...RADAR SHOWS THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN NOW WRAPPING
WWD ACROSS NRN NJ AND INTO ERN PA. THIS AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NWD ALONG WITH THE LOW-LVL STORM CENTER AND BEST EASTERLY
INFLOW. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE AREAS
FROM PHL SWWD...AND ALSO ADD THE TIER OF COUNTIES OVER FAR NW NJ
AND ADJ ERN PA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MULTI-FACETED HAZARD HEADLINE EVENT IN PROGRESS.
FOCUSING ON IMPACTS AND BRIEFLY DISCUSSING SCIENCE WHERE IT MAY BE
HELPFUL.
FLOOD WATCH: WE MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE SW PORTION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH IN OUR MID OR LATE MORNING UPDATE. IT LOOKS TO ME PER THE
RECENT GFS AND HRRR AS WELL AS RADAR THAT THE GREATER RISK FOR
REPEAT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL BE COASTAL AND NORTHERN NJ
AND MAYBE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF KRDG.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING: HAZARD ON TARGET WITH MDT FLOODING ASSURED
AND IT MAY BE A STRONG MODERATE DOWN IN THE CAPE MAY-LEWES AREA.
SURGE OF 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET AT HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. SANDY
HOOK LINKED COUNTIES I THINK MAY ESCAPE MDT FLOODING BUT NO CHANGE
TO THE WARNING. DEPARTURES AT SANDY HOOK ABOUT A FOOT LESS THAN
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE STRONGER INFLOW AND LOWER PRESSURE.
WIND ADVY: BEST POTENTIAL WHERE DESCRIBED ...MAY NEED TO ADD ATLANTIC
COUNTY AT THE LAST MINUTE. FEW GUSTS OF 45 KT EXPECTED MID OR LATE
MORNING. AT 5 AM ..MANY REPORTS AROUND 40 KT DE COAST TO MD ATLANTIC
COAST BORDERING DE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES: CUT THE SE TIER AT 630 AM AND CHANGED
TO HEAVIER ICE ACCUMS THE REMAINING ADVISORY AND ALSO THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. STILL SLEET IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.
WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE NEW ADVISORIES FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
BACKSIDE BANDING DEVELOPS ON BACK BENT MID LEVEL FRONT AND STILL
WAA OVER NYS AND NEW ENGLAND DRIVING LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT
SIDE OF THE 700 LOW. THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL MAY ADD TO THE PROBLEMS AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING.
WINTER STORM WARNING EXTENDED TO 18Z WED TO CAPTURE BACKSIDE SNOW.
THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST. NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE WESTERN PORTION OF CARBON/MONROE COUNTY
WITH EXPECTED MXD FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN AT THE START CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING. THEN THE LIFT WEAKENS LATE
MORNING AND IT MAY TURN TO RAIN OR FREEZING THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL AND THEN WE LOOK FOR POTENTIAL
BANDING AND IF THIS OCCURS...ADDITIONAL MDT OR HEAVY SNOWFALL
WOULD OCCUR. DIFFICULT FORECAST AND WE`RE TRYING TO SLICE THIS
VERY CLOSE TO THE MARK. A WORRISOME FORECAST ON PTYPE.
AT 5AM..SE MONROE COUNTY HEAVY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WE ARE
GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN IN ALLAMUCHY (.1 GLAZE) AND
OXFORD NJ HAS SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM FOR SOME INFO AND CONTINUE THE THEME WRITTEN
IN THE AFD FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE SNOWFALL TO OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AS STRONGER OMEGA AND FGEN COME TOGETHER.
MOSTLY BASED ON WHERE WE THINK THE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
SETUP...IN PENNSYLVANIA. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE PRETTY HEFTY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PA ZONES WEST OF PHILADELPHIA DOYLESTOWN AND
ALLENTOWN OVERNIGHT (EXCT SNOW GROWTH AND I THINK POTENTIAL FOR
4+ IF THE MODELED SCENARIO VERIFIES) AS WE SEE THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN BACK TO SNOW. STILL THINK A SWATH OF 8-10 INCHES IS VERY
POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WESTERN
MONROE AND WESTERN CARBON COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG LOW WHICH WILL MEANDER NORTH/EAST OF
THE REGION. BANDS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ACCUMS POSSIBLE MOSTLY N/W. GFS MODEL OVERNIGHT PAINTS SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS LEHIGH VALLEY NORTH AND WEST...BUT THIS WAS TONED DOWN
SOMEWHAT WITH AN EC SOLUTION MORE LIKELY. WE COULD ADD 1 TO 2
INCHES TO SNOW TOTALS WED N/W.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE LOW STARTS TO RELAX ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. CHC
POPS N/W AND SLGT CHC POPS S/E...THESE POPS DECREASE THU NIGHT.
FRI THRU MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SEVERAL DRY DAYS
EXPECTED. MODERATING TEMPS...WITH READINGS 4 OR 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SAT THEN RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...IFR IN RAIN..SOME HEAVY WITH FREEZING RAIN AT KRDG AND
KABE FOR A LITTLE WHILE THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 2O TO
30 KT EXCEPT NEAR 40 KT VCNTY KACY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTH NORTHWEST. GUSTS DIMINISH LATE TODAY.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS WITH BANDS OF RAIN SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND
RAIN CHANGING TO WET SNOW AT KRDG AND KABE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR IN
BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS AT
TIMES.
FRIDAY: VFR...A FEW WIDELY SCT SHOWERS FAR N/W EARLY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON OUR WATERS WITH NO CHANGES. THERE COULD
BE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING-MIDDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A STORM WARNING NOR DO WE THINK
THEY WILL BE PERSISTENT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UPWARDS OF 15
FEET ACROSS A MAJORITY OF OUR WATERS....POSSIBLY BRIEFLY 17 OR 18
FT AT 44009.
WINDS SUBSIDE LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW PARKED EAST BELMAR. SCA
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH END SCA CONDITIONS WITH GALE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. SEAS MOSTLY 5 TO 9 FEET.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS AND GUSTS CONTINUE WITH LOW
PRESSURE STILL TO NORTHEAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR ZONES INCLUDING PARTS
OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE 1.5 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES,
WILL ADD TO THE ALREADY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RUNOFF INTO AREAS STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS...THE MAINSTEM RIVERS SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
HEAVIEST APPEARS TO BE NNJ AND COASTAL NJ.
SO FAR AS OF 530 AM: MANY REPORTS 1 TO 1.9 INCHES IN CAPE MAY...BURLINGTON
AND ATLANTIC COUNTIES SINCE THE RAIN BEGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE MAIN AREA OF DOUBT IS THE SW END OF THE WATCH IN NORTHERN DE WHERE
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. I COULD SEE THIS PART
OF THE WATCH BEING CANCELLED LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION.
WATER BUILDUP HAS OCCURRED IN ALL OUR TIDAL WATERS DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL TIDE CYCLES, INCLUDING THE DELAWARE AND CHESAPEAKE BAYS AND
THE DELAWARE RIVER. ANOMALIES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND
2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY, AND 2.5 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CITY. IN THE DELAWARE BAY, ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL, AND IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY 1 FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN THESE ANOMALIES
THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN,
AS THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHWEST, WHICH SHOULD EAT AWAY
AT THESE ANOMALIES, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CITY. LOWER ANOMALIES
COMBINED WITH A SMALLER ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION (0.5 TO 1.0 FOOT
LOWER) SHOULD KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT IN THE MINOR RANGE FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTH.
SO...MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED
BACKBAYS WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE, MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED
ALONG THE SHORES OF THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY, AND MINOR TO LOW END
MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE (NORTH OF REEDY
POINT, INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA), AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. AS ALWAYS, ROUGH SURF
AND HEAVY RAIN AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WILL EXACERBATE THE FLOODING
ISSUE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD RAINFALLS FOR TUESDAY IN OUR HISTORICAL DATABASE.
ACY 2.51 2009
PHL 2.13 2009
ILG 2.28 2009
ABE 1.51 1973
TTN 2.25 1978
GED 1.93 2009
RDG 1.16 2009
MPO 1.82 1974
RECORD SNOWFALL FOR WEDNESDAY (LONG SHOT BUT JUST IN CASE)
PHL 4.3 1904
ILG 2.9 2013
ABE 2.7 2013
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ061-062-103>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>015-
019-020-025>027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-
022-025>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA
CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
847 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY
WEAKENS AND MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
FOR OUR WEATHER THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MULTI-FACETED HAZARD HEADLINE EVENT IN PROGRESS.
FOCUSING ON IMPACTS AND BRIEFLY DISCUSSING SCIENCE WHERE IT MAY BE
HELPFUL.
FLOOD WATCH: WE MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE SW PORTION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH IN OUR MID OR LATE MORNING UPDATE. IT LOOKS TO ME PER THE
RECENT GFS AND HRRR AS WELL AS RADAR THAT THE GREATER RISK FOR
REPEAT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL BE COASTAL AND NORTHERN NJ
AND MAYBE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF KRDG.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING: HAZARD ON TARGET WITH MDT FLOODING ASSURED
AND IT MAY BE A STRONG MODERATE DOWN IN THE CAPE MAY-LEWES AREA.
SURGE OF 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET AT HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. SANDY
HOOK LINKED COUNTIES I THINK MAY ESCAPE MDT FLOODING BUT NO CHANGE
TO THE WARNING. DEPARTURES AT SANDY HOOK ABOUT A FOOT LESS THAN
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE STRONGER INFLOW AND LOWER PRESSURE.
WIND ADVY: BEST POTENTIAL WHERE DESCRIBED ...MAY NEED TO ADD ATLANTIC
COUNTY AT THE LAST MINUTE. FEW GUSTS OF 45 KT EXPECTED MID OR LATE
MORNING. AT 5 AM ..MANY REPORTS AROUND 40 KT DE COAST TO MD ATLANTIC
COAST BORDERING DE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES: CUT THE SE TIER AT 630 AM AND CHANGED
TO HEAVIER ICE ACCUMS THE REMAINING ADVISORY AND ALSO THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. STILL SLEET IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.
WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE NEW ADVISORIES FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
BACKSIDE BANDING DEVELOPS ON BACK BENT MID LEVEL FRONT AND STILL
WAA OVER NYS AND NEW ENGLAND DRIVING LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT
SIDE OF THE 700 LOW. THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL MAY ADD TO THE PROBLEMS AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING.
WINTER STORM WARNING EXTENDED TO 18Z WED TO CAPTURE BACKSIDE SNOW.
THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST. NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE WESTERN PORTION OF CARBON/MONROE COUNTY
WITH EXPECTED MXD FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN AT THE START CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING. THEN THE LIFT WEAKENS LATE
MORNING AND IT MAY TURN TO RAIN OR FREEZING THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL AND THEN WE LOOK FOR POTENTIAL
BANDING AND IF THIS OCCURS...ADDITIONAL MDT OR HEAVY SNOWFALL
WOULD OCCUR. DIFFICULT FORECAST AND WE`RE TRYING TO SLICE THIS
VERY CLOSE TO THE MARK. A WORRISOME FORECAST ON PTYPE.
AT 5AM..SE MONROE COUNTY HEAVY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WE ARE
GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN IN ALLAMUCHY (.1 GLAZE) AND
OXFORD NJ HAS SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM FOR SOME INFO AND CONTINUE THE THEME WRITTEN
IN THE AFD FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE SNOWFALL TO OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AS STRONGER OMEGA AND FGEN COME TOGETHER.
MOSTLY BASED ON WHERE WE THINK THE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
SETUP...IN PENNSYLVANIA. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE PRETTY HEFTY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PA ZONES WEST OF PHILADELPHIA DOYLESTOWN AND
ALLENTOWN OVERNIGHT (EXCT SNOW GROWTH AND I THINK POTENTIAL FOR
4+ IF THE MODELED SCENARIO VERIFIES) AS WE SEE THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN BACK TO SNOW. STILL THINK A SWATH OF 8-10 INCHES IS VERY
POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WESTERN
MONROE AND WESTERN CARBON COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG LOW WHICH WILL MEANDER NORTH/EAST OF
THE REGION. BANDS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ACCUMS POSSIBLE MOSTLY N/W. GFS MODEL OVERNIGHT PAINTS SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS LEHIGH VALLEY NORTH AND WEST...BUT THIS WAS TONED DOWN
SOMEWHAT WITH AN EC SOLUTION MORE LIKELY. WE COULD ADD 1 TO 2
INCHES TO SNOW TOTALS WED N/W.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE LOW STARTS TO RELAX ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. CHC
POPS N/W AND SLGT CHC POPS S/E...THESE POPS DECREASE THU NIGHT.
FRI THRU MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SEVERAL DRY DAYS
EXPECTED. MODERATING TEMPS...WITH READINGS 4 OR 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SAT THEN RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...IFR IN RAIN..SOME HEAVY WITH FREEZING RAIN AT KRDG AND
KABE FOR A LITTLE WHILE THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 2O TO
30 KT EXCEPT NEAR 40 KT VCNTY KACY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTH NORTHWEST. GUSTS DIMINISH LATE TODAY.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS WITH BANDS OF RAIN SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND
RAIN CHANGING TO WET SNOW AT KRDG AND KABE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR IN
BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS AT
TIMES.
FRIDAY: VFR...A FEW WIDELY SCT SHOWERS FAR N/W EARLY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON OUR WATERS WITH NO CHANGES. THERE COULD
BE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING-MIDDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A STORM WARNING NOR DO WE THINK
THEY WILL BE PERSISTENT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UPWARDS OF 15
FEET ACROSS A MAJORITY OF OUR WATERS....POSSIBLY BRIEFLY 17 OR 18
FT AT 44009.
WINDS SUBSIDE LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW PARKED EAST BELMAR. SCA
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH END SCA CONDITIONS WITH GALE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. SEAS MOSTLY 5 TO 9 FEET.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS AND GUSTS CONTINUE WITH LOW
PRESSURE STILL TO NORTHEAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR ZONES INCLUDING PARTS
OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE 1.5 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES,
WILL ADD TO THE ALREADY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RUNOFF INTO AREAS STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS...THE MAINSTEM RIVERS SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
HEAVIEST APPEARS TO BE NNJ AND COASTAL NJ.
SO FAR AS OF 530 AM: MANY REPORTS 1 TO 1.9 INCHES IN CAPE MAY...BURLINGTON
AND ATLANTIC COUNTIES SINCE THE RAIN BEGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE MAIN AREA OF DOUBT IS THE SW END OF THE WATCH IN NORTHERN DE WHERE
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. I COULD SEE THIS PART
OF THE WATCH BEING CANCELLED LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION.
WATER BUILDUP HAS OCCURRED IN ALL OUR TIDAL WATERS DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL TIDE CYCLES, INCLUDING THE DELAWARE AND CHESAPEAKE BAYS AND
THE DELAWARE RIVER. ANOMALIES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND
2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY, AND 2.5 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CITY. IN THE DELAWARE BAY, ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL, AND IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY 1 FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN THESE ANOMALIES
THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN,
AS THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHWEST, WHICH SHOULD EAT AWAY
AT THESE ANOMALIES, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CITY. LOWER ANOMALIES
COMBINED WITH A SMALLER ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION (0.5 TO 1.0 FOOT
LOWER) SHOULD KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT IN THE MINOR RANGE FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTH.
SO...MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED
BACKBAYS WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE, MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED
ALONG THE SHORES OF THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY, AND MINOR TO LOW END
MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE (NORTH OF REEDY
POINT, INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA), AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. AS ALWAYS, ROUGH SURF
AND HEAVY RAIN AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WILL EXACERBATE THE FLOODING
ISSUE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD RAINFALLS FOR TUESDAY IN OUR HISTORICAL DATABASE.
ACY 2.51 2009
PHL 2.13 2009
ILG 2.28 2009
ABE 1.51 1973
TTN 2.25 1978
GED 1.93 2009
RDG 1.16 2009
MPO 1.82 1974
RECORD SNOWFALL FOR WEDNESDAY (LONG SHOT BUT JUST IN CASE)
PHL 4.3 1904
ILG 2.9 2013
ABE 2.7 2013
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ060>062.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ008>010-012>020-022-
025>027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-
022-025>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ016.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NJZ001-007.
DE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETA
CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
652 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY
WEAKENS AND MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
FOR OUR WEATHER THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MULTI-FACETED HAZARD HEADLINE EVENT IN PROGRESS.
FOCUSING ON IMPACTS AND BRIEFLY DISCUSSING SCIENCE WHERE IT MAY BE
HELPFUL.
FLOOD WATCH: WE MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE SW PORTION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH IN OUR MID OR LATE MORNING UPDATE. IT LOOKS TO ME PER THE
RECENT GFS AND HRRR AS WELL AS RADAR THAT THE GREATER RISK FOR
REPEAT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL BE COASTAL AND NORTHERN NJ
AND MAYBE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF KRDG.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH: HAZARD ON TARGET WITH MDT FLOODING ASSURED
AND IT MAY BE A STRONG MODERATE DOWN IN THE CAPE MAY-LEWES AREA.
SURGE OF 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET AT HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. SANDY
HOOK LINKED COUNTIES I THINK MAY ESCAPE MDT FLOODING BUT NO
CHANGE TO THE WARNING. DEPARTURES AT SANDY HOOK ABOUT A FOOT LESS
THAN FURTHER SOUTH WHERE STRONGER INFLOW AND LOWER PRESSURE.
WIND ADVY: BEST POTENTIAL WHERE DESCRIBED ...MAY NEED TO ADD ATLANTIC
COUNTY AT THE LAST MINUTE. FEW GUSTS OF 45 KT EXPECTED MID OR LATE
MORNING. AT 5 AM ..MANY REPORTS AROUND 40 KT DE COAST TO MD ATLANTIC
COAST BORDERING DE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES: CUT THE SE TIER AT 630 AM AND CHANGED
TO HEAVIER ICE ACCUMS THE REMAINING ADVISORY AND ALSO THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. STILL SLEET IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.
WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE NEW ADVISORIES FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
BACKSIDE BANDING DEVELOPS ON BACK BENT MID LEVEL FRONT AND STILL
WAA OVER NYS AND NEW ENGLAND DRIVING LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT
SIDE OF THE 700 LOW. THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL MAY ADD TO THE PROBLEMS AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING.
WINTER STORM WARNING EXTENDED TO 18Z WED TO CAPTURE BACKSIDE SNOW.
THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST. NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE WESTERN PORTION OF CARBON/MONROE COUNTY
WITH EXPECTED MXD FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN AT THE START CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING. THEN THE LIFT WEAKENS LATE
MORNING AND IT MAY TURN TO RAIN OR FREEZING THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL AND THEN WE LOOK FOR POTENTIAL
BANDING AND IF THIS OCCURS...ADDITIONAL MDT OR HEAVY SNOWFALL
WOULD OCCUR. DIFFICULT FORECAST AND WE`RE TRYING TO SLICE THIS
VERY CLOSE TO THE MARK. A WORRISOME FORECAST ON PTYPE.
AT 5AM..SE MONROE COUNTY HEAVY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WE ARE
GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN IN ALLAMUCHY (.1 GLAZE) AND
OXFORD NJ HAS SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM FOR SOME INFO AND CONTINUE THE THEME WRITTEN
IN THE AFD FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE SNOWFALL TO OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AS STRONGER OMEGA AND FGEN COME TOGETHER.
MOSTLY BASED ON WHERE WE THINK THE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
SETUP...IN PENNSYLVANIA. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE PRETTY HEFTY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PA ZONES WEST OF PHILADELPHIA DOYLESTOWN AND
ALLENTOWN OVERNIGHT (EXCT SNOW GROWTH AND I THINK POTENTIAL FOR
4+ IF THE MODELED SCENARIO VERIFIES) AS WE SEE THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN BACK TO SNOW. STILL THINK A SWATH OF 8-10 INCHES IS VERY
POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WESTERN
MONROE AND WESTERN CARBON COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG LOW WHICH WILL MEANDER NORTH/EAST OF
THE REGION. BANDS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ACCUMS POSSIBLE MOSTLY N/W. GFS MODEL OVERNIGHT PAINTS SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS LEHIGH VALLEY NORTH AND WEST...BUT THIS WAS TONED DOWN
SOMEWHAT WITH AN EC SOLUTION MORE LIKELY. WE COULD ADD 1 TO 2
INCHES TO SNOW TOTALS WED N/W.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE LOW STARTS TO RELAX ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. CHC
POPS N/W AND SLGT CHC POPS S/E...THESE POPS DECREASE THU NIGHT.
FRI THRU MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SEVERAL DRY DAYS
EXPECTED. MODERATING TEMPS...WITH READINGS 4 OR 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SAT THEN RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...IFR IN RAIN..SOME HEAVY WITH FREEZING RAIN AT KRDG AND
KABE FOR A LITTLE WHILE THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 2O TO
30 KT EXCEPT NEAR 40 KT VCNTY KACY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTH NORTHWEST. GUSTS DIMINISH LATE TODAY.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS WITH BANDS OF RAIN SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND
RAIN CHANGING TO WET SNOW AT KRDG AND KABE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR IN
BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS AT
TIMES.
FRIDAY: VFR...A FEW WIDELY SCT SHOWERS FAR N/W EARLY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON OUR WATERS WITH NO CHANGES. THERE COULD
BE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING-MIDDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A STORM WARNING NOR DO WE THINK
THEY WILL BE PERSISTENT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UPWARDS OF 15
FEET ACROSS A MAJORITY OF OUR WATERS....POSSIBLY BRIEFLY 17 OR 18
FT AT 44009.
WINDS SUBSIDE LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW PARKED EAST BELMAR. SCA
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH END SCA CONDITIONS WITH GALE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. SEAS MOSTLY 5 TO 9 FEET.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS AND GUSTS CONTINUE WITH LOW
PRESSURE STILL TO NORTHEAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR ZONES INCLUDING PARTS
OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE 1.5 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES,
WILL ADD TO THE ALREADY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RUNOFF INTO AREAS STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS...THE MAINSTEM RIVERS SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
HEAVIEST APPEARS TO BE NNJ AND COASTAL NJ.
SO FAR AS OF 530 AM: MANY REPORTS 1 TO 1.9 INCHES IN CAPE MAY...BURLINGTON
AND ATLANTIC COUNTIES SINCE THE RAIN BEGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE MAIN AREA OF DOUBT IS THE SW END OF THE WATCH IN NORTHERN DE WHERE
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. I COULD SEE THIS PART
OF THE WATCH BEING CANCELLED LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION.
NOT SURE IF WE WILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA UPPER DE BAY BUT
CONTINUING THE HEADLINE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD RAINFALLS FOR TUESDAY IN OUR HISTORICAL DATABASE.
ACY 2.51 2009
PHL 2.13 2009
ILG 2.28 2009
ABE 1.51 1973
TTN 2.25 1978
GED 1.93 2009
RDG 1.16 2009
MPO 1.82 1974
RECORD SNOWFALL FOR WEDNESDAY (LONG SHOT BUT JUST IN CASE)
PHL 4.3 1904
ILG 2.9 2013
ABE 2.7 2013
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ060>062.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ008>010-012>020-022-
025>027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-
022-025>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NJZ001-007.
DE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 652A
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
539 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY
WEAKENS AND MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
FOR OUR WEATHER THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MULTI-FACETED HAZARD HEADLINE EVENT IN PROGRESS.
FOCUSING ON IMPACTS AND BRIEFLY DISCUSSING SCIENCE WHERE IT MAY BE
HELPFUL.
FLOOD WATCH: WE MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE SW PORTION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH IN OUR MID OR LATE MORNING UPDATE. IT LOOKS TO ME PER THE
RECENT GFS AND HRRR AS WELL AS RADAR THAT THE GREATER RISK FOR
REPEAT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL BE COASTAL AND NORTHERN NJ
AND MAYBE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF KRDG.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH: HAZARD ON TARGET WITH MDT FLOODING ASSURED
AND IT MAY BE A STRONG MODERATE DOWN IN THE CAPE MAY-LEWES AREA.
SURGE OF 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET AT HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. SANDY
HOOK LINKED COUNTIES I THINK MAY ESCAPE MDT FLOODING BUT NO
CHANGE TO THE WARNING. DEPARTURES AT SANDY HOOK ABOUT A FOOT LESS
THAN FURTHER SOUTH WHERE STRONGER INFLOW AND LOWER PRESSURE.
WIND ADVY: BEST POTENTIAL WHERE DESCRIBED ...MAY NEED TO ADD ATLANTIC
COUNTY AT THE LAST MINUTE. FEW GUSTS OF 45 KT EXPECTED MID OR LATE
MORNING. AT 5 AM ..MANY REPORTS AROUND 40 KT DE COAST TO MD ATLANTIC
COAST BORDERING DE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES: CONTINUE AS DESCRIBED. AT 630AM WILL
DROP THE SE TIER OF COUNTIES.
WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE NEW ONES FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS BACKSIDE
BANDING DEVELOPS ON BACK BENT MID LEVEL FRONT AND STILL WAA OVER
NYS AND NEW ENGLAND DRIVING LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT SIDE OF THE
700 LOW. THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL SEVERAL HOURS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS AS WELL
MAY ADD TO THE PROBLEMS AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR FREEZING.
WINTER STORM WARNING EXTENDED TO 18Z WED TO CAPTURE BACKSIDE SNOW.
THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST. NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE WESTERN PORTION OF CARBON/MONROE COUNTY
WITH EXPECTED MXD FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN AT THE START CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING. THEN THE LIFT WEAKENS LATE
MORNING AND IT MAY TURN TO RAIN OR FREEZING THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL AND THEN WE LOOK FOR POTENTIAL
BANDING AND IF THIS OCCURS...ADDITIONAL MDT OR HEAVY SNOWFALL
WOULD OCCUR. DIFFICULT FORECAST AND WE`RE TRYING TO SLICE THIS
VERY CLOSE TO THE MARK. A WORRISOME FORECAST ON PTYPE.
AT 5AM..SE MONROE COUNTY HEAVY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WE ARE
GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN IN ALLAMUCHY (.1 GLAZE) AND
OXFORD NJ HAS SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM FOR SOME INFO AND CONTINUE THE THEME WRITTEN
IN THE AFD FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE SNOWFALL TO OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AS STRONGER OMEGA AND FGEN COME TOGETHER.
MOSTLY BASED ON WHERE WE THINK THE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
SETUP...IN PENNSYLVANIA. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE PRETTY HEFTY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PA ZONES WEST OF PHILADELPHIA DOYLESTOWN AND
ALLENTOWN OVERNIGHT (EXCT SNOW GROWTH AND I THINK POTENTIAL FOR
4+ IF THE MODELED SCENARIO VERIFIES) AS WE SEE THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN BACK TO SNOW. STILL THINK A SWATH OF 8-10 INCHES IS VERY
POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WESTERN
MONROE AND WESTERN CARBON COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG LOW WHICH WILL MEANDER NORTH/EAST OF
THE REGION. BANDS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ACCUMS POSSIBLE MOSTLY N/W. GFS MODEL OVERNIGHT PAINTS SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS LEHIGH VALLEY NORTH AND WEST...BUT THIS WAS TONED DOWN
SOMEWHAT WITH AN EC SOLUTION MORE LIKELY. WE COULD ADD 1 TO 2
INCHES TO SNOW TOTALS WED N/W.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE LOW STARTS TO RELAX ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. CHC
POPS N/W AND SLGT CHC POPS S/E...THESE POPS DECREASE THU NIGHT.
FRI THRU MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SEVERAL DRY DAYS
EXPECTED. MODERATING TEMPS...WITH READINGS 4 OR 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SAT THEN RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...IFR IN RAIN..SOME HEAVY WITH FREEZING RAIN AT KRDG AND
KABE FOR A LITTLE WHILE THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 2O TO
30 KT EXCEPT NEAR 40 KT VCNTY KACY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTH NORTHWEST. GUSTS DIMINISH LATE TODAY.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS WITH BANDS OF RAIN SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND
RAIN CHANGING TO WET SNOW AT KRDG AND KABE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR IN
BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS AT
TIMES.
FRIDAY: VFR...A FEW WIDELY SCT SHOWERS FAR N/W EARLY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON OUR WATERS WITH NO CHANGES. THERE COULD
BE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING-MIDDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A STORM WARNING NOR DO WE THINK
THEY WILL BE PERSISTENT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UPWARDS OF 15
FEET ACROSS A MAJORITY OF OUR WATERS....POSSIBLY BRIEFLY 17 OR 18
FT AT 44009.
WINDS SUBSIDE LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW PARKED EAST BELMAR. SCA
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH END SCA CONDITIONS WITH GALE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. SEAS MOSTLY 5 TO 9 FEET.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS AND GUSTS CONTINUE WITH LOW
PRESSURE STILL TO NORTHEAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR ZONES INCLUDING PARTS
OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE 1.5 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES,
WILL ADD TO THE ALREADY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RUNOFF INTO AREAS STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS...THE MAINSTEM RIVERS SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
HEAVIEST APPEARS TO BE NNJ AND COASTAL NJ.
SO FAR AS OF 530 AM: MANY REPORTS 1 TO 1.9 INCHES IN CAPE MAY...BURLINGTON
AND ATLANTIC COUNTIES SINCE THE RAIN BEGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE MAIN AREA OF DOUBT IS THE SW END OF THE WATCH IN NORTHERN DE WHERE
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. I COULD SEE THIS PART
OF THE WATCH BEING CANCELLED LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION.
NOT SURE IF WE WILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA UPPER DE BAY BUT
CONTINUING THE HEADLINE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD RAINFALLS FOR TUESDAY IN OUR HISTORICAL DATABASE.
ACY 2.51 2009
PHL 2.13 2009
ILG 2.28 2009
ABE 1.51 1973
TTN 2.25 1978
GED 1.93 2009
RDG 1.16 2009
MPO 1.82 1974
RECORD SNOWFALL FOR WEDNESDAY (LONG SHOT BUT JUST IN CASE)
PHL 4.3 1904
ILG 2.9 2013
ABE 2.7 2013
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ060>062.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ008>010-012>020-022-
025>027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NJZ008>010-015.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-
022-025>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NJZ001-007.
DE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 539
SHORT TERM...DRAG 539
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 539
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...539
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...539
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
536 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WERE THE FOCUS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. CAA CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AND FINALLY DIMINISHES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION
SETTING UP AROUND 925M THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LOW
STRATUS DECK TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASED SKY COVER
DURING THIS TIME TO REFLECT THIS TREND. THE 09.06Z HRRR AND 09.03Z
HOPWRF HINTING ON CLOUD COVER LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY AS WELL. TEMPS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO INCREASE MUCH TODAY WITH
THE STRATUS AND CAA PERSISTING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWERED MAX
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST A DEGREE BUT LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT LOOKED ON TRACK.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
OVERALL...THE MID TO LATE WEEK PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERIOD OF
INCREASED WARMING AND MOISTURE. SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS TONIGHT
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION...WITH
THE GREAT LAKES WAVE SUPPRESSING MOISTURE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
STATES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS ALREADY
SUPPORTING RETURN FLOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW MEXICO.
MODELS SHOW THAT THIS PLUME WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST THEN
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK...AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND...THE RETURN OF MOISTURE AND LOW STRATUS ALONG WITH DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND BRING WITH IT ANOTHER AREA OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN SIMILAR TO EARLY THIS MORNINGS LOWS. CLOUDS
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN WITH TONIGHTS RUN...THE NAM IS
FASTER WITH SATURATION AT LOWER LEVELS WHILE THE GFS INITIALLY WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING DOES NOT SHOW SATURATION...BUT LATER IN
THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY IMPACT MINS AND
ESPECIALLY HIGHS BOTH DAYS. FOR NOW...HAVE TRIMMED FRI HIGHS A BIT
OVER THE AREA BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL TO LOWER
50S WEST/SOUTH. BY SATURDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVER MOST OF
THE SOUTH...UPPER 40S NORTHEAST. STRATUS WILL STILL BE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MIXING MIGHT PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER. DIFFUSE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WEST
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED
WAVE BY DAYS 6 AND 7 WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS STILL DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH THE
GFS FARTHER NORTH AND PHASING THE TWO STREAMS WHILE THE EURO IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ALSO ALLOW FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN A BLENDED APPROACH
UNTIL DETAILS BECOME MORE APPARENT. AFTER A MILD WEEKEND...PASSAGE
OF SYSTEM MONDAY WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...09/12Z
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE STRATUS BREAKING UP ANYTIME TODAY
AND KEPT MENTION OF IT THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO IT
SHOULD BE A THIN ENOUGH TO SEE SUN SHINNING THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPING TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
LEFT OUT MENTION ATTM TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF STRATUS
DEPARTURE. HOPWRF/HRRR LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP THE STRATUS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON TODAY. THERE IS A COUPLE OF VFR HOLES IN
THE STRATUS DECK...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY FILL BACK IN WITH THE CAA.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
654 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BY LATE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW DENSE THESE CLOUDS
WILL BE BUT NAM, GFS, AND RAP ALL INDICATE A COOLING TREND IN THE
925MB TO 850MB LEVEL FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS
COOLING TREND, MORE CLOUDS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND AN
EASTERLY WIND WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 STILL LOOKS REASONABLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL
BE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EXACTLY HOW THE GRADIENT WILL END UP BETWEEN
THESE TWO EXTREMES IS UNCLEAR.
ISENTROPIC AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS IN THE 900MB TO 800MB LEVEL. STATUS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY
SOME AREAS OF FOG APPEARING LIKELY AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE
OVERNIGHT. DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER WILL BE IN THE 2000 TO 3000
FT AGL RANGE DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOUNDING YOU EXAMINE. GIVEN
THE DEPTH OF THIS LAYER AM TRENDING AWAY FROM INTRODUCING DRIZZLE
LATE TONIGHT BUT IF THE NAM ENDS UP BEING MORE CORRECT THEN SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 32 DEGREES BUT GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THE LOWS MAY OCCUR EARLY
WITH TEMPERATURES THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW
DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
THE PERIOD BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE A TRUE CHALLENGE
WITH RESPECT TO SKY COVER AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES BOTH IN THE
DAYTIME FOR HIGHS AS WELL AS LOWS OVERNIGHT. RELATIVELY MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MARKED BY DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S COULD CONTRIBUTE TO EVENING/NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
ADDITION TO ALREADY EXPECTED STRATUS. STRATUS THAT DOES ERODE
DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE ABLE RAPIDLY REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
DIURNALLY. MODELS SOUNDINGS GENERALLY LIMIT THE THICKNESS TO
SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2000 FT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE
DESPITE MODEL QPF OUTPUT. THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING HOW FAR WEST THE STRATUS IMPACTS THE FORECAST AREA
EACH DAY AND IT`S EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD OVERCAST
CONDITIONS, WHILE THE WESTERN MOST COUNTIES, GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WILL EXPERIENCE THE MOST HOURS OF INSOLATION AND CLEAR
SKIES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
UNLESS THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS FROM THE
CURRENT AND RECENT RUNS, SUNDAY NIGHT (OR AROUND THAT SYNOPTIC
TIMESCALE/TIMEFRAME) LOOKS WET WITH RAIN POTENTIAL OR EVEN SNOW
WITH AS UPPER DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING, PROMOTING
VFR CATEGORIES AT THE LOCAL TERMINALS. SURFACE WIND WILL VEER
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE MISSISSPPI VALLEY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 49 33 47 41 / 0 10 10 10
GCK 52 31 50 37 / 0 10 0 0
EHA 59 34 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 56 36 56 44 / 0 10 0 0
HYS 42 29 43 38 / 0 10 10 10
P28 49 31 46 41 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
310 AM MST TUE DEC 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM TRENTON TO BREWSTER TO RUSSELL SPRINGS. 03Z RUC SIMILAR
TO LATEST HRRR OUTPUT AND 00Z NAM BOOSTING CONFIDENCE THAT DENSE
FOG WILL DEVELOP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
UPDATES REQUIRED FOR FIRST AND SECOND PERIODS (TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY) FOCUSING ON ARRIVAL OF POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
AT 0230Z CIRRUS SHIELD THAT WAS OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY IS
MOVING EAST AND SLOWLY OUT OF THE AREA. AM EXPECTING MORE TO MOVE
IN LATER IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
AT THE SFC STRATUS PER SATELLITE OBS AND RUC 900MB RH FORECAST
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. BY 06Z THIS
NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRATUS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY REACH AREAS JUST
TO THE NORTHEAST FROM MCCOOK TO NORTON. AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO
BACK INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS STRATUS DECK
EXPECTED TO REACH A TRENTON TO HILL CITY LINE BY 09Z THEN ROUGHLY
A BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND OAKLEY LINE BY 12Z. IN THE TRENTON TO
HILL CITY AND POINTS NORTHEAST AREAS WINDS ARE CALM AND RH NEAR
100 PERCENT. LATEST RUC/HRRR/NAM VISIBILITY FORECASTS ALL SHOWING
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR LESS.
NAM EXTRAPOLATION OF SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER RH PUSHES IT
FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER WITH DENSE FOG CONTINUING
ROUGHLY FROM TRENTON TO HOXIE AND POINTS EAST. HRRR SUGGESTS
FURTHER WEST TOWARD BENKELMAN TO NEAR GOODLAND AND RUSSELL
SPRINGS.
WILL AWAIT THE 03Z RUC/LATEST HRRR BEFORE ZONE UPDATE SENT BUT
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ABOVE THINKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
DECENT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS THE TRI STATE
REGION IS SEEING TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS WELL INTO THE 50S. THIS IS ONGOING DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING OVER THE AREA CREATING SUNNY CONDITIONS.
HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN
TIME FOR 925MB THERMAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE RIDGE AXIS COMBO...WHICH
MODELS BRING OVER THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MODEL RH IN LATEST
BUFKIT RUNS DOES HINT AT FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMATION BETWEEN 06Z-14Z
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES.
LGT/VAR WIND CONDITIONS WILL ALSO AID IN FOG FORMATION IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES...SO WILL KEEP PREVIOUS MENTION OF FOG IN THE
FORECAST.
GOING INTO TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PLAINS. THIS IS GOING TO SET UP YET ANOTHER NICE DAY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. MUCH OF THE WESTERN CWA WILL SEE WAA AGAIN ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHILE EASTERN ZONES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SURFACE
RIDGE THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE MAJOR FACTOR...SO HAVE TAPERED HIGHS
FOR TOMORROW FROM WEST TO EAST...MID 50S WEST DOWN TO THE MID 40S
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST TUE DEC 9 2014
APOLOGIZE FOR THE DELAYED ISSUANCE OF THIS DISCUSSION.
ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER HUGE SWING IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE...MAINLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAIN DISCUSSION FOCUS IS ON A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT HIGH
PLAINS WINTER STORM. ONLY THING OF NOTE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
IS THAT GUIDANCE WARMED TEMPS AGAIN FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA. MADE A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO INCREASE HIGHS.
TIME FOR THE MORE IMPORTANT DETAILS. FIRST...THE METEOROLOGY ASPECT
OF THIS SCENARIO. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE ON ALL ACCOUNTS HAS SHOWN
A MAJOR SHIFT IN THIS STORM SYSTEMS EVOLUTION. PREVIOUSLY...ALL...
AND I MEAN LITERALLY ALL...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATED A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY...
EJECTING OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND SLOWLY PROGRESSING ON AN EASTERLY
COURSE NEXT WEEK. FOR THE LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS...THE SCENARIO
REMAINS THE SAME UNTIL SUNDAY...THE DAY OF MOST CONCERN. MODELS NOW
INDICATE THAT A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LEADS TO INTENSE LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRONG...DEEPENING VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM SLOWLY PROGRESSES NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEP CYCLONE THEN HEADS SOMEWHERE EAST/NORTHEAST
AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT BEYOND MONDAY. LATEST
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODEL SCENARIOS OF A DEEP CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/MOVEMENT. WHAT IS ASSURED IS THERE WILL BE A
VIGOROUS MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY.
THERE ARE SOME OTHER COMPLICATING FACTORS THAT COULD PLAY LARGE
ROLES THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED. FIRST IS THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA COULD CUT OFF MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE HIGH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE 3-4 DAYS OF STRONG GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION
PRECEDING THIS SYSTEM. WHILE MOISTURE REINFORCEMENT MAY BE CUT OFF
BY SOUTHERN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE ICE
CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE SATURATES AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION PASSES
THROUGH WHICH FAVORS POTENTIAL SNOW. THE SECOND DRIVING FORCE IS
TIMING OF THE NEEDED COLD TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD
BE THROUGH AT LEAST PARTS OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING PRECEDING
ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE COMPLETELY
THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THERE WOULD BE NO
TEMPERATURE CONCERNS BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL
WINTER SYSTEM.
SO...WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO
EXTREME RUN-TO-RUN GUIDANCE VARIABILITY...THERE IS AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO STRIKE THE REGION. HERE ARE
THE POSSIBILITIES AS THEY STAND NOW:
1. THE BEST CASE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND RESULTS IN ONLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH GUSTY WINDS ON
SUNDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THIS LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE WAS
COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH AND THE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE RIGHT.
2. THE MORE LIKELY CASE...AND I SAY THAT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT...IS
THAT THIS SYSTEM PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
RESULTS IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SPREADING
IN SUNDAY MORNING. COOLING TEMPS WOULD MEAN THAT THE MAIN PRECIP
TYPE IS SNOW BUT A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
TEMPS DROP AND ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE SATURATES. THE WORST OF THE
WEATHER BYPASSES US TO THE SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW.
3. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO IS BASICALLY WHAT ALL LATEST OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUNS HIGHLIGHT. A STRONG LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION.
A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ON THE LOW`S NORTHWEST
SIDE...PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MAY OCCUR SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
LARGE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED AND WOULD LIKELY FALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
IN THIS SCENARIO...A CRIPPLING WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE. WHILE THIS
SCENARIO IS QUITE WORRISOME...IT IS TOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO AS WHAT WILL HAPPEN SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHERE MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INTENSE WINTER STORM WILL HAPPEN.
AFTER ALL OF THIS...WHAT DO YOU NEED TO KNOW? AGAIN...A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
QUITE LOW ON THE EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES MUST BE MONITORED FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THIS INCOMING SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST MON DEC 8 2014
KGLD...VFR THROUGH 12Z WITH WINDS UNDER 5KTS AND A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. A FEW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AROUND 12Z-13Z BECOMING BKN OVER THE TERMINAL WITH SOME BR AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE 14Z-16Z TIME FRAME. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. UNDER A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF CIRRUS FROM 19Z
THROUGH 04Z WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND
11KTS VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 7KTS FROM 05Z-06Z.
KMCK...VFR THROUGH 09Z WITH WINDS UNDER 5KTS AND A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z VLIFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. AROUND 19Z THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD STRATUS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A LAYER OF CIRRUS AND
SOUTHEAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016-028-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
631 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON
BAY S THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH TROF AXIS NOW E OF UPPER MI...
HEIGHTS ARE BEGINNING TO RISE AS BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
EXPANDS EASTWARD. AT THE SFC...TROF IS ALSO NOW S AND E OF UPPER MI
WITH BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHERING IN SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR INTO THE
AREA...MOST NOTICEABLE BLO 850MB. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
PER UPSTREAM 00Z KINL/CWPL SOUNDINGS...LOW CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE UPPER LAKES WITH CLEARING ONLY NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF NRN
AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OFF ONTARIO AND MN
NSHORE. TEMPS IN THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER HAVE BEEN FALLING...BUT
APPARENTLY AREN`T COLD ENOUGH YET TO ENSURE COMPLETE ICE NUCLEATION
AS -SN HAS BEEN MIXED AT TIMES WITH -FZDZ DURING THE NIGHT IN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST RUC/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER NEARING -10C...SO ANY LINGERING -FZDZ
SHOULD BE ENDING IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. A FEW HRS AGO...ONLY ONE
HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW WAS NOTED OFF SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
MARQUETTE AREA AND ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. CURRENTLY...RADAR DOES NOT
SHOW ANYTHING OTHER THAN VERY LIGHT PCPN STREAMERS.
LINGERING -SHSN/FLURRIES WILL WIND DOWN TODAY AS INVERSION FALLS TO
2-3KFT AHEAD OF A 1035-1040MB HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTING SE TOWARD THE
UPPER LAKES. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED OVER THE
REGION UNDER INVERSION...OPTED TOWARD A MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD
FCST TODAY. CLOUDS WILL BE MOST RELUCTANT TO BREAK IN THE AREAS
WHERE N TO NE FLOW IS UPSLOPING. BREAKING OF THE CLOUDS MAY BE MORE
LIKELY OVER THE FAR E LATER IN THE DAY AS VEERING WINDS INCREASE
DOWNSLOPING OFF ONTARIO. MAY SEE A SIMILAR SITUATION NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR OVER THE FAR W LATE AS DOWNSLOPING BEGINS WITH WINDS
VEERING MORE EASTERLY. CLOUDS/SHALLOW CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY.
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT. WHILE FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...
THERE IS HUGE BUST POTENTIAL WITH TEMPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD
COVER. BEST BET FOR CLEARING IS IN TWO AREAS. CLEARING SHOULD EXPAND
WESTWARD THRU ERN UPPER MI FROM THE DOWNSLOPING OFF ONTARIO UNDER E
TO NE FLOW...AND CLEARING WILL ALSO EXPAND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
WRN UPPER MI AS WINDS BECOME DOWNSLOPING E TO SE. NCNTRL UPPER MI
INTO THE KEWEENAW WILL LIKELY SEE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT AS WINDS MAINTAIN SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT ALL NIGHT. FOR
NOW...INDICATED MIN TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHERE AT LEAST SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED. IF SKIES CLEAR...TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS WILL
FALL TO NEAR OR PERHAPS BLO 0F. IF CLOUDS HOLD...TEENS WILL LIKELY
BE THE RULE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA THROUGH SAT AS A SFC RIDGE
SITS OVER THE CWA BEFORE MOVING SE FRI INTO SAT. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
SUN. WED NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE
ZERO LOWS INLAND AS THE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AIRMASS IS STILL TO THE W. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE
FROM AOB 0C AT 12Z WED TO AOA 10C BY 00Z SAT...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS
STICKING AROUND THROUGH SAT. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED ON SAT WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRANSITION INTO A MORE
ACTIVE PATTER LATE IN THE WEEKEND...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME SUN INTO MON...AND PTYPE WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO SNOW AT LEAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MON. LOTS WILL
DEPEND ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH MODELS VARY
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM RUN TO RUN. STILL NOT BUYING GREATER QPF/LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MODELS SHOW ON SUN/SUN NIGHT AS MODELS LIKELY
ARE OVERDOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THEY OFTEN DO WHEN MODELING
SNOWPACK MELTING. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN FOR SAT
NIGHT-MON SINCE SFC TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR FREEZING RAIN IF THE
RAIN/CLOUDS ARE AS THICK AS MODELS SUGGEST...AND IF THERE IS LESS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TEMPS WILL BE COLDER BUT PRECIPITATION PROBABLY
WILL NOT OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER FALLING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CHALLENGING FCST. INITIALLY...
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PREVAILING
LIFR CIGS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. EXPECT SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR...THEN LOW MVFR DURING THE AFTN AS SLIGHT DRYING
OCCURS IN THE LOW-LEVELS. AS DOWNSLOPING BEGINS AT KIWD WITH
LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO LIGHT E TO SE THIS EVENING...LOW MVFR
CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT. CLEARING SHOULD ALSO PROGRESS W THRU ERN
UPPER MI...AND IT`S POSSIBLE LOW MVFR CIGS COULD SCATTER OUT AT KSAW
LATE TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY A LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING AT KCMX...
LOW MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
BEHIND A LOW PRES TROF...N TO NW WINDS RAMPED UP TO 20-30KT
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS NOTED OVER CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO HUDSON
BAY APPROACHES TODAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E TO UNDER 20KT
BY EVENING. WITH THE HIGH PRES RIDGE THEN SETTLING OVER THE UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT THRU WED...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO UNDER 15KT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THU AND FRI...BUT WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT.
THESE LIGHTER WINDS MAY LINGER ON INTO SAT AS WELL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
513 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON
BAY S THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH TROF AXIS NOW E OF UPPER MI...
HEIGHTS ARE BEGINNING TO RISE AS BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
EXPANDS EASTWARD. AT THE SFC...TROF IS ALSO NOW S AND E OF UPPER MI
WITH BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHERING IN SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR INTO THE
AREA...MOST NOTICEABLE BLO 850MB. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
PER UPSTREAM 00Z KINL/CWPL SOUNDINGS...LOW CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE UPPER LAKES WITH CLEARING ONLY NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF NRN
AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OFF ONTARIO AND MN
NSHORE. TEMPS IN THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER HAVE BEEN FALLING...BUT
APPARENTLY AREN`T COLD ENOUGH YET TO ENSURE COMPLETE ICE NUCLEATION
AS -SN HAS BEEN MIXED AT TIMES WITH -FZDZ DURING THE NIGHT IN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST RUC/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER NEARING -10C...SO ANY LINGERING -FZDZ
SHOULD BE ENDING IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. A FEW HRS AGO...ONLY ONE
HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW WAS NOTED OFF SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
MARQUETTE AREA AND ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. CURRENTLY...RADAR DOES NOT
SHOW ANYTHING OTHER THAN VERY LIGHT PCPN STREAMERS.
LINGERING -SHSN/FLURRIES WILL WIND DOWN TODAY AS INVERSION FALLS TO
2-3KFT AHEAD OF A 1035-1040MB HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTING SE TOWARD THE
UPPER LAKES. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED OVER THE
REGION UNDER INVERSION...OPTED TOWARD A MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD
FCST TODAY. CLOUDS WILL BE MOST RELUCTANT TO BREAK IN THE AREAS
WHERE N TO NE FLOW IS UPSLOPING. BREAKING OF THE CLOUDS MAY BE MORE
LIKELY OVER THE FAR E LATER IN THE DAY AS VEERING WINDS INCREASE
DOWNSLOPING OFF ONTARIO. MAY SEE A SIMILAR SITUATION NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR OVER THE FAR W LATE AS DOWNSLOPING BEGINS WITH WINDS
VEERING MORE EASTERLY. CLOUDS/SHALLOW CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY.
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT. WHILE FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...
THERE IS HUGE BUST POTENTIAL WITH TEMPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD
COVER. BEST BET FOR CLEARING IS IN TWO AREAS. CLEARING SHOULD EXPAND
WESTWARD THRU ERN UPPER MI FROM THE DOWNSLOPING OFF ONTARIO UNDER E
TO NE FLOW...AND CLEARING WILL ALSO EXPAND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
WRN UPPER MI AS WINDS BECOME DOWNSLOPING E TO SE. NCNTRL UPPER MI
INTO THE KEWEENAW WILL LIKELY SEE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT AS WINDS MAINTAIN SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT ALL NIGHT. FOR
NOW...INDICATED MIN TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHERE AT LEAST SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED. IF SKIES CLEAR...TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS WILL
FALL TO NEAR OR PERHAPS BLO 0F. IF CLOUDS HOLD...TEENS WILL LIKELY
BE THE RULE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA THROUGH SAT AS A SFC RIDGE
SITS OVER THE CWA BEFORE MOVING SE FRI INTO SAT. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
SUN. WED NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE
ZERO LOWS INLAND AS THE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AIRMASS IS STILL TO THE W. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE
FROM AOB 0C AT 12Z WED TO AOA 10C BY 00Z SAT...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS
STICKING AROUND THROUGH SAT. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED ON SAT WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRANSITION INTO A MORE
ACTIVE PATTER LATE IN THE WEEKEND...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME SUN INTO MON...AND PTYPE WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO SNOW AT LEAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MON. LOTS WILL
DEPEND ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH MODELS VARY
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM RUN TO RUN. STILL NOT BUYING GREATER QPF/LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MODELS SHOW ON SUN/SUN NIGHT AS MODELS LIKELY
ARE OVERDOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THEY OFTEN DO WHEN MODELING
SNOWPACK MELTING. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN FOR SAT
NIGHT-MON SINCE SFC TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR FREEZING RAIN IF THE
RAIN/CLOUDS ARE AS THICK AS MODELS SUGGEST...AND IF THERE IS LESS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TEMPS WILL BE COLDER BUT PRECIPITATION PROBABLY
WILL NOT OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER EASTERN
UPR MICHIGAN IS COMBINING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO MAINTAIN LIFR/IFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MVFR OR IFR VSBY OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME LGT SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN DZ/FZDZ. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AT KCMX
LATE IN THE NIGHT AS UPSLOPING DIMINISHES. ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR AT ALL THE TAF SITES TODAY BUT BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE INTO THE EVENING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH
INVERSION. HOWEVER...SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT AT
KIWD BY AFTN AS DOWNSLOPING EAST FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
BEHIND A LOW PRES TROF...N TO NW WINDS RAMPED UP TO 20-30KT
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS NOTED OVER CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO HUDSON
BAY APPROACHES TODAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E TO UNDER 20KT
BY EVENING. WITH THE HIGH PRES RIDGE THEN SETTLING OVER THE UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT THRU WED...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO UNDER 15KT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THU AND FRI...BUT WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT.
THESE LIGHTER WINDS MAY LINGER ON INTO SAT AS WELL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
518 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2014
Vort max which dropped across the region overnight is now working
its way into the TN valley, with associated cold front currently
dropping into far s counties of our CWA. Early morning 11-3.9 low
cloud imagery indicates an extensive area of ST and SC in the wake
of the front, with this low cloud deck extending into the upper
Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes with only a few minor
breaks noted.
While can`t rule out a bit of sunshine, believe clouds will dominate
much of the region today due to the extensive low level moisture
trapped beneath a fairly stout inversion, as suggested by 925mb RH
progs from both the RUC and NAM. Today will certainly be cooler
than yesterday, and I`ve attempted to try to limit diurnal swing
as clouds should definitely inhibit a big daytime temp swing.
However, if a solid cloud deck holds throughout the day going max
temps may still be a bit too warm.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2014
(Tonight-Thursday)
Chilly and tranquil weather should continue during this time
frame, and the primary forecast concern is how short-term low
cloud trends will evolve heading into midweek. Given forecast
inversion and north-northeast low level flow forecast across the
area as surface ridge works into the upper Mississippi Valley,
believe low clouds will hold over the region tonight and will
likely have a tendency to hang tough through Wednesday, with some
additional mid level cloudiness spilling into the area as strong
but moisture-starved shortwave zips down the back side of the
large upper level low winding up over the east coast.
Temperatures should moderate a bit by Thursday with a slightly
warmer airmass and a bit more sunshine.
(Friday-Monday)
Medium range solutions take eastern U.S. low up the eastern
seaboard heading into the end of the week, allowing upper level
ridge to work into the central CONUS. Resultant warming of the
AMS over the mid-Mississippi Valley should provide a strong
rebound in temps across the FA, with highs in the 50s by the end
of the week.
UA pattern over the CONUS becomes even more progressive by late in
the period, allowing aforementioned ridge to push east and deep UA
trof over the western U.S. to sweep into the Plains. This could
mean some precip in our CWA by Sunday, with better chances by the
start of the new work week. This system should be a rain-maker for
our area due to the relatively mild AMS.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 515 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2014
MVFR stratus has returned to the region in the wake of the cold
front and is expected to hang around through mid-week. Can`t rule
out ceiling dropping into IFR range, but not confident enought to
include in forecast at this time. North wind will become light as
surface high moves closer.
Specifics for KSTL:
MVFR stratus expected with north wind becoming light and variable
tonight.
CVKING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
557 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A DECENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER NRN ILLINOIS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FURTHER WEST...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NORTH INTO THE YUKON OF CANADA. WITHIN THIS
RIDGE...A DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED OVER WESTERN MONTANA. CURRENT WV
IMAGERY AS OF 2 AM CST HAS THIS FEATURE NOW OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF MT. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. FURTHER
WEST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER EASTERN WYOMING
INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AN AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVERNIGHT...AND THIS AREA OF
CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SWRN NEBRASKA. THE FOG WAS PRIMARILY ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS AND ROUGHLY EXTENDED FROM
VALENTINE TO AINSWORTH...SWD TO THEDFORD...NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN
BOW. FURTHER WEST...SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM.
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CST...RANGED
FROM 15 AT NORTH PLATTE TO 25 AT BROKEN BOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ARE TEMPERATURES TODAY...AS WELL AS FOG POTENTIAL THIS
MORNING...AS WELL AS TONIGHT. FOR TODAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS ALONG A
LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO BROKEN BOW. ATTM...THE LATEST HI RES RUC
SOLN HAS THIS AREA OF FOG EXPANDING SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK. ONE WILDCARD IN THE DEGREE OF WESTWARD
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...IS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. ATTM...FOG VISBYS HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 5 MILE RANGE...SO WILL KEEP FOG MENTION AS
PATCHY THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE HRRR SOLN...FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIME FRAME...AND HAVE
EXTENDED THIS MENTION OF FOG INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS GIVEN
THIS MODEL TREND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK EAST LATER
TODAY INCREASING SRLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
TAKE ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT...RESULTING IN SOME LIMITED DOWNSLOPE
AND WARMER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. FURTHER EAST...THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUDS...SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING HIGH...WILL LIMIT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST...TO THE 40S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST
MAV GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER FOR HIGHS OVER THE PAST 3
RUNS...AND HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER MET
GUIDANCE. WITH THIS IN MIND...TRENDED HIGHS TDY SOME 2 TO 4
DEGREES COLDER THAN THE INHERITED FCST. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SRLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE LATEST
NAM SOLN IS INDICATING NEAR SATURATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM CURTIS...TO
ONEILL. INHERITED FCST HAD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN
THESE AREAS AND IT WILL BE CONTINUED WITH THE CURRENT FCST
PACKAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK
DOWN/FORCED EAST AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN STATES
AND EVENTUALLY THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE...AND SHOULD WARM BY SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. HIGHS
BY FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY WARMER IF GREATER MIXING OCCURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
PROVIDE FOR PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS GENERATE LIGHT DZ/QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OUR EAST THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY...BUT THE MOISTURE
PROFILES ONLY FAVOR STRATUS AND/OR FOG AS THE DEPTH OF THE RETURN IS
RATHER SHALLOW.
CONCERNING THIS WEEKEND AND A POTENTIAL SYSTEM...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A
DAY MAKES. IN 24 HOURS THE GFS SOLUTION HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS WEEKENDS CLOSED H5 LOW BY HUNDREDS OF MILES. THE
MODEL GENERATED TRACK OF THE LOW YESTERDAY FAVORED THE BIG BEND
OF TEXAS ON SUNDAY...THEREAFTER TRACKING THE LOW OVER HEART OF TEXAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TONIGHT...THE GFS IS FAVORING A SOLUTION
WHICH CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...THEN TRACKING THE
LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...AND EVENTUALLY
TOWARD THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODEL
INDICATES THE MEAN TROUGH TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EMERGES ON
THE PLAINS. COMPLICATING MATTERS...THE EUROPEAN CAMP AND NUMEROUS
GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A SIMILAR TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS /AT
LEAST INITIALLY/. SO FOR THE FIRST SUITE OF RUNS PROGGING THIS
SYSTEM...MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SHOWING SOME COHERENCE...BUT
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS SEVERELY LACKING. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS LOW...ESPECIALLY SINCE ALL LONG TERM GUIDANCE
GENERATES CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS ON SUNDAY.
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE KEYING ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...GENERATING
AN AREA OF PV DESTRUCTION OVER OUR SOUTH...AND SEVERELY LIMITING THE
QPF POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH THE CWA. THE GFS HOWEVER DOES EVENTUALLY
GENERATE WRAP AROUND QPF SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH
AND EAST. THE WRAP AROUND IS IN QUESTION AS THE CONVECTION
/PROJECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN KANSAS/ WOULD ALLOW FOR AN ASSUMED
GREATER EASTWARD WOBBLE OF THE H7 LOW. SO INSTEAD OF THE MODEL
PROJECTED H7 LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THE MORE LIKELY
LOCATION WOULD BE EASTERN OR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THE WRAP AROUND
WOULD THUS BE SHUNTED SOUTHEAST AS WELL. THE ECMWF IS
CONCERNING...GENERATING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER ON
SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN...THE CONVECTION THAT THE MODEL IS GENERATING
PUTS ANY OF THE QPF ACROSS OUR CWA SEVERELY IN QUESTION. THE CR-INT
PROCEDURE REMAINS PESSIMISTIC IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT FOR SUNDAY AND
BEYOND...WHICH IS FAVORED AT THIS POINT...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE BLENDED FORECAST. BUT...LAST NIGHT MY FORECAST STATED THE
POTENTIAL WEEKEND STORM WAS LOOKING MORE LIKE A "DUD" FOR THE
CWA...AT THIS TIME I WISH TO RETRACT THOSE WORDS AND STATE THAT THIS
SYSTEM IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
FOR THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR FROM KLBF TO KVTN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AT THE
KVTN TERMINAL...VISBYS MAY DROP TO 1/2SM THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING...WITH VISBYS AROUND 3 SM POSSIBLE FROM 14 TO 16Z THIS
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID MORNING WITH VISBYS AS LOW AS 2SM. SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CLEARING THEREAFTER.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
514 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS OVERNIGHT INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUING TO SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. ALOFT...A
100+ KT JET CAN BE SEEN DIVING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA AND WESTERN
MISSOURI AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IN THE MID LEVELS...HEIGHT
RISES SUGGEST THE BUILDING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...AND SOME MINIMAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPREAD FROM
MANITOBA STRETCHING SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS CIRCULATING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...WITH STRATUS BANDS STRETCHING INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. UNDER THESE BANDS...METAR SITES HAVE INDICATED CEILING
HEIGHTS NEAR 1500 FT AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE AT
VALENTINE.
FOR THE VERY NEAR SHORT TERM...THESE STRATUS BANDS WILL BE OF
CONCERN. SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP...SREF...AND HRRR ALL
SUGGEST THAT REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. AT THIS TIME...CONTINUED WITH
AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED. AS SUCH...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGE
AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE PLAINS...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
AND HELP CLEAR OUT ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL CENTER ON
THE POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL SURGE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES
NEAR 10 KTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE STATE
LINE. THEREFORE...IT REMAINS A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE FOG AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE MORNING THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOULD BECOME DRIZZLE. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH DRIZZLE IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY MODEL
THAT MOVES THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST IS THE GFS...SO WILL KEEP
THE DRIZZLE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. IT SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS AND EVEN SOME RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP AS THERE
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM ADVECTION.
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE ROCKIES WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON
SATURDAY. THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
SATURDAY. THE QUESTION BECOMES PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY LAYER AND HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST...BUT THAT IS EVEN A LITTLE
QUESTIONABLE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN UP SOME AND
THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS WITH MAYBE SOME RAIN IN THE EAST.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHERE THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING UP THE
QUESTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE. SUNDAY THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH THAT EXPECT RAIN BUT TEMPERATURES AT 850MB START TO COOL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE NIGHT THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
COOL AND THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH AND MAYBE CHANGE TO SNOW DURING
THE NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST AND EXPECT DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 457 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
AGAIN FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY THIN BAND OF
STRATUS SPREADING FROM VALENTINE SOUTHWARD INTO THE LEXINGTON
AREA. THE EDGE OF THIS BAND APPEARS TO BE RIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE
CITY OF KEARNEY. SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL
NOT SPREAD EASTWARD. THUS...DECIDED TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
MOMENT FOR KEAR...ALTHOUGH IT BEARS MONITORING. FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY
LATE MORNING. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT PASS THE PLAINS...THIS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. SOME MODELS ARE ALSO LEANING
TOWARDS FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE WATCHING FUTURE MODEL RUNS
FOR NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SALTZMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 1010 AM TUESDAY...MORNING UPDATE MAINLY TO CAPTURE PRECIP AND
T/TD TRENDS. THE SFC LOW IS LOCATED APPROX 100 MI E OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULAR THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
TO OFF THE NJ COAST TODAY AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT N ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER
THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT
OF LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH
SOME RAIN NOTED NEAR ROCKY MOUNT AND LOUISBURG CURRENTLY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS AND BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MUCH DAY PRODUCING RAW CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE
COAST.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER
BANKS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL END SHORTLY WITH REPORTS OF
OCEAN OVERWASH AGAIN FROM BUXTON NORTH TO PEA ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CUT-OFF LOW
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROTATES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT...MAINLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTHERN SECTIONS. AFTER THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS BRINGING DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING. AGAIN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO LINGER NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY UNTIL LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND
WEAKEN WITH A DOWNSLOPING W/WNW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEAKENING A BIT ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS EAST FOR LATE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
MINIMUMS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MANY
AREAS AT OR BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY INLAND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50. AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH LOWER 60S FOR
HIGHS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE STARTS TO CREEP NORTH FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNING TO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRES LIFTING NORTH JUST OFF THE VA COAST
THIS MORNING. BULK OF THE RAIN ASSOC WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALLOWING LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. NW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WILL PERSIST TODAY BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
CIGS AOB IFR...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SREF AND
NAM STILL APPEAR TO LIFT CIGS TO MVFR TOO QUICKLY THIS MORNING
WHILE THE GFS AND HRRR SOLUTIONS KEEP IFR CIGS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO THE EVENING FOR THE COASTAL TAF SITES.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING COOLING TEMPS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THINK THE GFS/HRRR MAY BE HOLDING ON TO
IFR CIGS A LITTLE TOO LONG AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE TIMING WISE FOR WHEN CIGS LIFT TO MVFR. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SUBSTANTIAL DRYING THE COLUMN LATE TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS N AND DEVELOPS INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC BRINGING NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND A
DOWNSLOPING W/WNW SURFACE FLOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY-REDUCING FOG THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NW
WINDS 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AT DUCK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
9-12 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE WITH 6-8 FT SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH TO OFF THE NJ
COAST TODAY. NW WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS GENERAL RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SEAS WILL VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD...TO ABOUT 6-10
FT NORTH WHILE CONTINUING AROUND 5-8 FT SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE SOUNDS AND ALLIGATOR AS MODELS
INDICATING NW WINDS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THESE ZONES THIS MORNING BUT OTHERWISE HAVE CONTINUED
THE SCA AS ADVERTISED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT GUSTY WNW/NW WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE GRADIENT SUBSIDES A BIT
ON THURSDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...AS HIGH AS 10 FEET
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM
THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS AND UNTIL 11 PM
THURSDAY FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS. LATEST SWAN AND WAVEWATCH
INDICATE THAT SEAS FINALLY DROP BELOW 6 FEET THURSDAY EVENING.
AFTER A BIT OF A LULL ON FRIDAY...WINDS/SEAS INCREASE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS GRADIENT IS PINCHED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE EAST AND SOME MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRES TRACKING NORTH JUST OFF THE COAST
THIS MORNING BRINGING STRONG NLY WINDS ACROSS THE OBX WHICH...
COMBINED WITH LARGE HIGH ENERGY SEAS ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 FT WITH
PERIODS AROUND 12 SECONDS...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LARGE SURF AND
WAVE RUN-UP ALONG THE BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. OVERWASH
IS LIKELY AGAIN WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WHICH PEAKS
AROUND 9 AM. MOST VULNERABLE AREAS WILL BE WHERE THE DUNES HAVE
BREACHED DURING PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...INCLUDING KITTY
HAWK...PORTIONS OF PEA ISLAND INCLUDING THE S-CURVES AT MIRLO
BEACH...AND THE HOTELS IN BUXTON.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SEAS AND
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT TIDE CYCLE. MINOR EFFECTS
MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE
GUIDANCE INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL TIDES CONTINUING...BUT MUCH
IMPROVED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-
131-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-156-
158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM TUE...MORNING UPDATE MAINLY TO CAPTURE PRECIP AND
T/TD TRENDS. THE SFC LOW IS LOCATED APPROX 100 MI E OF VIRGINIA
BEACH EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TO OFF
THE NJ COAST TODAY AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT N ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH LIGHT RAIN NOW MAINLY OVER DARE/HYDE
COUNTIES. HRRR LIFTS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL NORTH OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 8-9 AM BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE
THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA
WITH BEST CHANCES NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW CLOUDS AND BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MUCH DAY PRODUCING RAW CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER
BANKS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS CONTINUES THROUGH THE 9 AM HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. PLEASE SEE THE TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CUT-OFF LOW
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROTATES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT...MAINLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTHERN SECTIONS. AFTER THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS BRINGING DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING. AGAIN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO LINGER NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY UNTIL LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND
WEAKEN WITH A DOWNSLOPING W/WNW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEAKENING A BIT ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS EAST FOR LATE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
MINIMUMS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MANY
AREAS AT OR BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY INLAND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50. AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH LOWER 60S FOR
HIGHS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE STARTS TO CREEP NORTH FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNING TO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRES LIFTING NORTH JUST OFF THE VA COAST
THIS MORNING. BULK OF THE RAIN ASSOC WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALLOWING LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. NW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WILL PERSIST TODAY BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
CIGS AOB IFR...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SREF AND
NAM STILL APPEAR TO LIFT CIGS TO MVFR TOO QUICKLY THIS MORNING
WHILE THE GFS AND HRRR SOLUTIONS KEEP IFR CIGS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO THE EVENING FOR THE COASTAL TAF SITES.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING COOLING TEMPS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THINK THE GFS/HRRR MAY BE HOLDING ON TO
IFR CIGS A LITTLE TOO LONG AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE TIMING WISE FOR WHEN CIGS LIFT TO MVFR. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SUBSTANTIAL DRYING THE COLUMN LATE TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS N AND DEVELOPS INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC BRINGING NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND A
DOWNSLOPING W/WNW SURFACE FLOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY-REDUCING FOG THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRES APPROX 100 MI E OF VA BEACH EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH TO OFF THE NJ COAST TODAY. WINDS
BECOMING NW AROUND 15-25 KT THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
THIS GENERAL RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SEAS AROUND 10-14 FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND 5-8 FT SOUTH THIS
MORNING WILL VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD...TO ABOUT
6-10 FT NORTH WHILE CONTINUING AROUND 5-8 FT SOUTHERN WATERS
TONIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE SOUNDS AND ALLIGATOR AS
MODELS INDICATING NW WINDS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THESE ZONES THIS MORNING BUT OTHERWISE HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA AS ADVERTISED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT GUSTY WNW/NW WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE GRADIENT SUBSIDES A BIT
ON THURSDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...AS HIGH AS 10 FEET
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM
THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS AND UNTIL 11 PM
THURSDAY FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS. LATEST SWAN AND WAVEWATCH
INDICATE THAT SEAS FINALLY DROP BELOW 6 FEET THURSDAY EVENING.
AFTER A BIT OF A LULL ON FRIDAY...WINDS/SEAS INCREASE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS GRADIENT IS PINCHED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE EAST AND SOME MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRES TRACKING NORTH JUST OFF THE COAST
THIS MORNING BRINGING STRONG NLY WINDS ACROSS THE OBX WHICH...
COMBINED WITH LARGE HIGH ENERGY SEAS ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 FT WITH
PERIODS AROUND 12 SECONDS...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LARGE SURF AND
WAVE RUN-UP ALONG THE BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. OVERWASH
IS LIKELY AGAIN WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WHICH PEAKS
AROUND 9 AM. MOST VULNERABLE AREAS WILL BE WHERE THE DUNES HAVE
BREACHED DURING PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...INCLUDING KITTY
HAWK...PORTIONS OF PEA ISLAND INCLUDING THE S-CURVES AT MIRLO
BEACH...AND THE HOTELS IN BUXTON.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SEAS AND
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT TIDE CYCLE. MINOR EFFECTS
MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE
GUIDANCE INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL TIDES CONTINUING...BUT MUCH
IMPROVED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-
131-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-156-
158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
531 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
IFR VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST FOR AIRFIELDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING AS AREAS OF DENSE FOG REMAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH NOON... WITH WINDS
CONTINUING TO BACK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTN.
OVERNIGHT... LIGHT FOG MAY IMPACT VARIOUS SITES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ONCE AGAIN.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY LINGER BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR... HOWEVER...
A POCKETS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
IN RESPONSE TO VERY SHALLOW SFC MOISTURE ACROSS TEXOMA AND THE RED
RIVER VALLEY... DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SRN OK AND WRN
N TX. RECENT RAP AND HRRR OUTPUT OF VIS AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES
HINT AT FOG EXPANSION NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OK FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
NEAR SUNRISE BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS... HAVE MADE THE DECISION TO
EXTEND THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 16Z (10AM CST). AT THE
MOMENT... NOT CONVINCED OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG REACHING FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE CURRENT ADVISORY. HOWEVER... SOME POCKETS OF SHORT
DURATION DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY. WITH THAT
IN MIND... AND GIVEN THE CURRENT VIS TRENDS THROUGH 230AM CST...
THERE ARE NO PLANS TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY FARTHER NORTH AT THE
MOMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH VIS TRENDS CLOSELY THIS MORNING IN
THE EVENT AN EXPANSION IS NECESSARY.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY... HELPING CLEAR FOG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER WEAK SFC BOUNDARY... MUCH LIKE THE ONE
YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL
OK THROUGH THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS.
OVERNIGHT... AS THE H500 RIDGE BROADENS ACROSS THE WRN U.S... A WEAK
H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ACROSS ERN NM AND WEST TX. THIS WILL OPEN UP SOME MODEST SFC
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF. PAIRED WITH SOME WEAK LL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH... SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE WED INTO THU.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS THE RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST STRENGTHENS... LEAVING THE SRN PLAINS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
AND CONTINUAL SFC MOISTURE RETURN. OVERALL... MOST WILL REMAIN
DRY... WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
FOR THE WEEKEND... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE... GFS/GFS13KM/ECMWF/CA...
HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW DECENT CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE RUNS
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEEP H500 TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SAT.
INCREASED PRECIP CHCS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXPECT SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ON SUNDAY. A DECENT LOW... BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM KSPS TO KOUN
SHOW COLD TEMPS ALOFT... ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER... BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WELCOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 36 55 45 / 0 0 10 10
HOBART OK 57 40 55 46 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 42 58 48 / 0 0 10 20
GAGE OK 54 37 54 42 / 0 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 48 32 50 42 / 0 0 10 20
DURANT OK 60 40 55 45 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ033>048-
050>052.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
30/04/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
926 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS PER CURRENT HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...WINDS...ALONG WITH HAVING TEMPS FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS ACROSS PLATEAU REGION. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST
AND BELOW FORECAST REASONING REMAIN ON TRACK.
WE ARE STILL EXPERIENCING COMMS PROBLEMS HERE AT THE NWS NASHVILLE
OFFICE WHICH INCLUDES PHONE LINES WORKING OFF AN ON...INTERNET DOWN...
ALONG WITH NWR OUTAGES. TECHNICIANS ARE CONTINUE TO LOOK INTO
THIS PROBLEM AND APPOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVIENCES THAT IT HAS OR MIGHT
CAUSE THIS MORNING AND HOPE TO HAVE THIS FIXED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 649 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE MID-STATE
BEHIND PASSING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION...LARGELY AT VFR HEIGHTS BUT CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER/REFORM OVERNIGHT AND THOSE MAY BE AOB 3KFT.
SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN ALSO POSSIBLE CSV TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY FOR THE NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER INDIANA WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN TN THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE
BETTER DEFORMATIONAL INFLUENCES WILL BE TO THE LEFT OF THE
TRACK...WE DO PICK UP SOME DESCENT CURVATURE AND SHEAR ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE TRACK. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOWER
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS IL...IN AND NRN MO.
LATEST HRRR AND MODEL DATA BOTH CONCUR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AN EXAMINATION OF FREEZING LEVELS DOES
SUPPORT SNOW FOR AREAS GENERALLY ABOVE 1500 FT MSL AFT 18Z TODAY.
BY 00Z THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE MID STATE...WHERE THE
CHANCES OF PRECIP EXISTS...WILL BE SNOW. AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT
AND NO ADVISORIES OR SPS PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED. FURTHERMORE...SFC
TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
A LOW CHANCE OF SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST FOR TONIGHT
BUT AMOUNTS AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT.
FOR THE FCST...WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW EASTERN THIRD
FOR THIS MORNING...JUST RAIN SOUTHEAST. THIS AFTERNOON...WILL TREND
THE GRIDS TOWARD A CHANCE OF ALL SNOW FOR THE EASTERN AREA BY
EVENING. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW 0C AND FREEZING LEVELS
WILL BE DROPPING AS WELL AS SFC TEMPS WHICH WILL BE FALLING
THROUGH THE 30S.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED. IN FACT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ON
TAP FOR WED NT AND THU.
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS A UNIFORM
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY A VERY SLOW INCREASE IN HEIGHT
VALUES.
IN THE EXTENDED FCST...HEIGHT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
A RIDGE AXIS REACHING THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL EQUATE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. LATE IN THE EXTENDED HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
649 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE MID-STATE
BEHIND PASSING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION...LARGELY AT VFR HEIGHTS BUT CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER/REFORM OVERNIGHT AND THOSE MAY BE AOB 3KFT.
SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN ALSO POSSIBLE CSV TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY FOR THE NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER INDIANA WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN TN THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE
BETTER DEFORMATIONAL INFLUENCES WILL BE TO THE LEFT OF THE
TRACK...WE DO PICK UP SOME DESCENT CURVATURE AND SHEAR ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE TRACK. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOWER
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS IL...IN AND NRN MO.
LATEST HRRR AND MODEL DATA BOTH CONCUR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AN EXAMINATION OF FREEZING LEVELS DOES
SUPPORT SNOW FOR AREAS GENERALLY ABOVE 1500 FT MSL AFT 18Z TODAY.
BY 00Z THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE MID STATE...WHERE THE
CHANCES OF PRECIP EXISTS...WILL BE SNOW. AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT
AND NO ADVISORIES OR SPS PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED. FURTHERMORE...SFC
TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
A LOW CHANCE OF SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST FOR TONIGHT
BUT AMOUNTS AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT.
FOR THE FCST...WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW EASTERN THIRD
FOR THIS MORNING...JUST RAIN SOUTHEAST. THIS AFTERNOON...WILL TREND
THE GRIDS TOWARD A CHANCE OF ALL SNOW FOR THE EASTERN AREA BY
EVENING. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW 0C AND FREEZING LEVELS
WILL BE DROPPING AS WELL AS SFC TEMPS WHICH WILL BE FALLING
THROUGH THE 30S.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED. IN FACT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ON
TAP FOR WED NT AND THU.
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS A UNIFORM
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY A VERY SLOW INCREASE IN HEIGHT
VALUES.
IN THE EXTENDED FCST...HEIGHT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
A RIDGE AXIS REACHING THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL EQUATE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. LATE IN THE EXTENDED HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
624 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.AVIATION...
...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT UNDERWAY ACROSS MANY NORTH TEXAS AIRPORTS...
PRIMARY CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE TIMING THE DISSIPATION OF
LIFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. OBSERVATIONS AT ALL 6 TAF
SITES INDICATED DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY VALUES AT OR BELOW ONE
QUARTER MILE. EVEN THOUGH THE FOG IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...THE
DISSIPATION PROCESS IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT LOW
LEVEL WINDS...TIME OF YEAR...AND THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE
SURFACE-BASED CLOUD DECK.
EXPECT A RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY AFTER 15Z /9 AM
CST/...BUT THE SUBSEQUENT IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST UNTIL
18Z OR 19Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
A REPEAT OF THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT /
WEDNESDAY MORNING SINCE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
09/GP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
AS OF 3 AM...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED IN OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE HIGH CLOUDS WERE IMPEDING RADIATIVE HEAT LOSS
A BIT. STILL WE EXPECT FOG TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD BEFORE
SUNRISE. ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...CONDITIONS ARE
EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG AND IT IS LIKELY THAT IT WILL
BE SLOWER THAN USUAL TO LIFT AND BURN OFF. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EXPIRES AT 10AM...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO
FROM I-20 NORTH. WINDS BELOW 850MB THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LIGHT...IF NOT NEARLY CALM...WHICH MEANS THE LOW ANGLE
DECEMBER SUN WILL BE THE ONLY THING WORKING TO LIFT THE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS TODAY. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWEST TO ERODE TODAY FROM
ROUGHLY I-20 TO THE RED RIVER...BUT OUT OF ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...ONLY THE RUC HAS THESE CLOUDS HANGING IN THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY THE EXACT EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE
HUGE IMPLICATIONS ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY...BUT AM LEANING TOWARD THE
RUC SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW TRADITIONAL
GUIDANCE FROM I-20 NORTHWARD. IF AND WHERE CLOUDS HOLD IN ALL
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 50S.
INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD NIX THE DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS MORE CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS IT HAS TAPPED INTO A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND IS SLINGING
IT INTO TEXAS. THE ECMWF/NAM ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE PROFILES OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AM
INCLINED TO BELIEVE THEM. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
LAYER OF DRIER AIR BELOW THIS MOISTURE THAT WILL KEEP PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE GROUND WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS LAYER SHOULD SATURATE
FROM TOP DOWN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE INTRODUCED SPRINKLES
INTO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL
BE UNLIKELY INITIALLY. THE BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA WHERE A TINY AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
BE AVAILABLE. QPF WILL BE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WE EXPECT LESS
THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REMAIN
SEASONABLY COOL AS THICK CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT DAYTIME WARMING.
AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY EVENING...THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SUBSTANTIALLY. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
MOIST AND NEARLY SATURATED...WHICH WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WHILE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...THEY HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK FARTHER TO THE
NORTH THAN YESTERDAY/S MODEL RUNS. STILL...THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WOULD PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN A REGION OF STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT
AND GIVEN THE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY AND/OR
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONG...SURFACE
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE VERY LIMITED AND SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. 925MB THETA-E VALUES DO SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR THE INCLUSION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST BUT MUCAPE
LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPS
WILL COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY...BUT WRAP-AROUND LOW
CLOUDS MAY KEEP MONDAY/S HIGHS COOLER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 58 44 61 51 59 / 0 5 10 20 20
WACO, TX 62 42 60 51 63 / 0 5 20 30 30
PARIS, TX 60 39 55 43 55 / 0 5 5 20 20
DENTON, TX 57 40 60 49 58 / 0 5 10 20 20
MCKINNEY, TX 58 39 59 48 58 / 0 5 10 20 20
DALLAS, TX 59 45 60 50 60 / 0 5 10 20 20
TERRELL, TX 60 42 60 48 59 / 0 5 10 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 61 44 62 50 59 / 0 5 10 30 30
TEMPLE, TX 64 45 62 52 64 / 0 5 20 30 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 61 42 59 51 62 / 0 5 10 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
09/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
530 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.AVIATION...
THICK FOG CONTINUES IN AND OUT AT KCDS MAKING TAF FORECASTING A
BIT TEDIOUS. AT KLBB AND KPVW...WE EXPECT A LIGHT FOG TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING THOUGH ALSO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
DENSE FOG AS WELL. LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A
RISK OF VERY LOW VISIBILITY AT KLBB AND KPVW WHILE THE MUCH LARGER
DENSE FOG AREA CONTINUES ON THE HRRR RUNS FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH. SHOULD IMPROVE BOTH SITES TO IFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY. TONIGHT WE
EXPECT A THICK BATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH KLBB AND POSSIBLY KCDS. TENTATIVE FORECAST FOR 18 HOURS
AND BEYOND WILL INDICATE PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPVW AND
KLBB. A RISK FOR MUCH WORSE CONDITIONS EXISTS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BUT
WILL LEAVE DETAILS TO LATER FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CROSSING ARIZONA TODAY WILL EDGE INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. MEAGER UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL EDGE TOWARDS
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WHILE A MASS OF 800MB TO
900MB MOISTURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS AREAS ON THE CAPROCK ESPECIALLY.
ALTHOUGH COUPLING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOT APPARENT...WE THINK
THERE COULD BE ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL LIFT TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WEST OR SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.
AND THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD FUEL ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG
FROM THE CAPROCK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY SHOULD KNOCK A CATEGORY OFF HIGHS TODAY FROM YESTERDAY.
THE MOISTURE INCREASE TONIGHT SHOULD HOLD MINIMUMS QUITE A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL. PLAN TO MAINTAIN THIS MORNINGS DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SOME
PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS...WILL ADD OR RETRACT AREAS AS NEEDED.
RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA WILL PASS OVER
WEST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MEAGER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION. A GOOD FETCH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OBSERVED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH A NOTICEABLE DRY LAYER AROUND 700MB SIMILAR TO THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM A FEW DAYS AGO. WITH SUCH WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE NOT MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT
TROUGHS OR COLD FRONTS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DEW POINTS WILL BE INCREDIBLY HIGH FOR
DECEMBER AND MAY LEAD TO FOG EVERY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND WITH EACH MODEL
ITERATION. ENSEMBLES CONFIRM THE UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH SPREAD IN
THE THEIR SOLUTIONS. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS SYSTEM IS TRENDING
PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LEE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO MORE FAMILIAR WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE LARGE CAVEAT IN ALL OF THIS IS THAT THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL AROUND 3500 MILES AWAY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PACIFIC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 62 42 58 37 65 / 0 10 10 10 0
TULIA 63 43 59 41 64 / 0 10 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 64 43 59 40 64 / 0 10 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 63 47 60 42 64 / 0 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 63 46 60 42 65 / 0 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 63 47 59 42 63 / 0 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 63 47 59 44 63 / 0 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 63 42 61 46 65 / 0 10 10 10 10
SPUR 64 46 62 47 64 / 0 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 64 45 63 49 65 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ026-032-038-044.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
731 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS
UP TOWARD THE JERSEY COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MERGE WITH
THE COASTAL LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NEW ENGLAND. ONCE THIS
HAPPENS OUR AREA WILL STAY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM EST TUESDAY...
WILL BE LETTING THE REST OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 AM.
NO PRECIP TO SPEAK OF IN THE COLDER AREAS THIS MORNING...BUT THERE
REMAINS PATCHY DZ/FZDZ OR FOG. THINK AS THE NW/N FLOW INCREASES
WILL SEE THE SRN SHENANDOAH VALLEY/HIGHLANDS SCOUR OUT...BUT
MODELS DO CONTINUE TO HINT AT A NARROW BAND OF PRECIP ROTATING
BACK ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF VA...ALONG AND NORTH OF
AN AMHERST TO HALIFAX LINE BY LATE MORNING...BUT APPEARS TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THEN...SO NO WINTER PTYPE CONCERNS.
FURTHER WEST...SLOWER TIMING OVERALL WITH UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
KY...AND PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE MTNS. LOOKS LIKE THE LATEST RAP IS
NOT THAT FAR OFF AND WILL START TO SEE PRECIP MAINLY RAIN...SOME
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE MTNS OF NC/FAR SW VA AND SE WV BEFORE
NOON.
NOT TOO MUCH ELSE CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THRU THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 330 AM TODAY...
UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF KY BY MIDDAY TURNING THE UPPER FLOW
MORE SOUTHERLY...AND ENHANCING THE SFC LOW MOVING NWD TOWARD THE
DELMARVA. FOR US...THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING SOME DRYING BEFORE WE
GET THE SFC WINDS TURNED AROUND MORE TOWARD THE NW WITH LOW LVL
MOISTURE BANKED UP ACROSS THE WRN CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE MODELS
ARE ENHANCING A BACK EDGE BAND OF PRECIP TOWARD OUR NERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM AMHERST COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO CHARLOTTE COUNTY.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE DAY.
THIS MORNING THE WINTRY PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED AS TEMPS REMAIN
STUCK IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. COLDEST TEMPS LIE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND MORE AWAY FROM WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP IS FALLING.
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY SLEET/SNOW OVER THE SRN SHENANDOAH VLY
THIS MORNING INTO THE ALLEGHANYS AND BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF
ROANOKE...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY HERE...WHILE VIRGINIA DOT
CONTINUES TO SHOW MINOR ACCUMULATION ON ROADS GENERALLY FROM
COVINGTON TO LEXINGTON AND NORTH. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY FROM NEW
CASTLE TO ROANOKE TO ROCKY MOUNT SOUTH. POTENTIAL FOR CANCELLING
FURTHER NORTH EARLY IF ALL PRECIP EXITS SOONER.
PERUSING THE ROAD TEMPS VIA DOT...MOST IN OUR CWA ARE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...OF COURSE THIS DOES NOT COVER THE SECONDARY HIGHWAYS...SO
SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES COULD HAVE A FEW SLICK SPOTS.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME THICK FOG ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...AND SOME
RIME ICING COULD OCCUR AND ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY SLICK SPOTS AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FT WEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
8H TEMPS WILL START TO DROP FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MORNING THE 0C ISOTHERM LIES OVER SE WV SOUTH INTO FAR SW VA.
BY MIDDAY IT SHOULD BE TO THE BLUE RIDGE...THEN EAST OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
THIS PATH DRIVES THE COLDER AIR FIRST INTO THE NC MTNS THEN
NORTH...AND SEEMS TO FAVOR HIGHER POPS FOR THE NC MTNS FIRST AS
WELL...THEN AS THE LOW MOVES NE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT THE
NEXT VORT SHIFTS ACROSS THE WV MTNS...AND CONTINUES THE SNOW
SHOWERS HERE.
MODELS INDICATE LIGHT AMOUNTS AS THE TRAJECTORIES DO NOT FAVOR
MAXIMUM UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...BUT STILL A 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IS
EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHER END...3 INCHES OVER THE NW SECTIONS OF
GREENBRIER COUNTY. AT THIS TIME...THERE WILL BE NO HEADLINES
ADDED...FOR THE UPSLOPE THOUGH COULD SEE WRN GREENBRIER GET ADDED
LATER TODAY IF MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR MORE QPF.
FOR HIGHS TODAY WENT CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAD PREVIOUSLY. TEMPS WILL BE
STEADY OR COULD SLOWLY RISE IN THE WEST BEFORE THE STRONG CAA
ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER LOW...BUT STILL KEEPING THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
30S...WITH AROUND 40 ACROSS THE NRV...AND MID TO UPPER 40S
EAST...ESPECIALLY IF CLEARING TAKES SHAPE. THINK THE SRN CWA EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE IN NC THRU SOUTHSIDE VA COULD SEE SOME SUN AT TIME
THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...WINDS PICK UP LATE AND WITH CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND 8H
TEMPS AROUND -6C...SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WHILE
WINDS ALSO KEEP THE EASTERN CWA MIXED ENOUGH TO BRING THEM DOWN INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR AREA WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNWIND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST TO
NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS TIME PROGRESSES THROUGH
THURSDAY...COVERAGE OF THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3K FEET WITH GUSTS BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS. SNOWFALL TOTALS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA WITH A 1
TO 3 INCH RANGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WILL MAINLY BE UNDER AN INCH. CAN NOT RULE
OUT AROUND ONE INCH FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN ASHE AND
WATAUGA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. LIGHTER TOTALS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...
MODELS ARE NOW IN THE SAME BALLPARK FOR THE EXTENDED...JUST NOT SURE
IF THE GAME IS FOOTBALL OR SOCCER. EVOLUTION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER PATTERN WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW DOING A SIT AND SPIN
OVER THE NORTHEAST US IS A FAVORED SOLUTION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEGIN TO SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH GFS BEING TYPICALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AND EURO DIGGING
IN ITS HEELS. BY MONDAY UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CROSSING THE
REGION AS NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EVEN WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE SMALL. NW FLOW UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WRN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE WINDING
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. MAYBE SOME
FLURRIES FAR WRN SLOPES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT LOOKING
LIKE QUIET WEATHER ELSEWHERE. WE THEN GET INTO SOME WEAK LIFT AS A
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME SPRINKLES GOING BUT NOTHING
TOO EXCITING...AND GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT WILL GO
WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC CONFINED TO WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EST TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE SREF AND NAM THIS MORNING WITH TRENDS
TOWARD VFR BY LATE MORNING FROM ROA EAST...THOUGH DAN MAY TAKE
UNTIL 18Z TO GO VFR. MEANWHILE...NW FLOW AND UPPER LOW WILL BE
KEEPING CIGS MVFR OR WORSE OVER THE MTNS. HAVE POCKETS OF DENSE
FOG AT BLF...WITH MVFR FOG AT LWB/BCB. THINK THE FOG WILL CLEAR
OUT SOON...LEAVING BEHIND AN MVFR CIG...AT BLF/LWB...WITH BCB
GOING TO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON
LOOK FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE FOR SE WV INTO THE NC
MTNS. WILL HAVE BLF STAYING MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW BY 02Z TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME CIGS DROP BELOW 1KFT.
LWB IS GOING TO ALSO BE MVFR...THOUGH A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR CIGS
MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NW FLOW GETS GOING.
BCB MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES TONIGHT WHILE CIGS DROP BACK TO JUST
UNDER 3KFT.
WINDS SHOULD ALSO PICK UP LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS. SOME GUSTS OVER 20
KTS POSSIBLE BY WED MORNING.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR UPSLOPE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ASIDE FOR SOME LINGERING MVFR
CLOUDINESS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH VFR AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ019-
020-023-024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/PM/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
144 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY WITH
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS. LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT STALLS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1040 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISING ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT
THROUGH 15Z...BUT HOLDING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING FROM THE INTERIOR
MERRIMACK VALLEY THROUGH CENTRAL AND NW MA. NOTING THAT TEMPS HAVE
BEEN WARMING ALOFT WITH RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION AS SEEN
ON 12Z KOKX SOUNDING /UP TO +5C AT 866 MB AND FREEZING LEVEL UP TO
6500 FT/...SO TENDING TO MIX DOWN WITH THE AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVING INTO S COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS RISE EVEN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS AS THE SLUG OVER HEAVY PRECIP MOVES IN.
NOTING 1005 HPA LOW PRES JUST NE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AT
15Z...WHICH APPEARS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK THOUGH TUCKED A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
NOTING REPORTS OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH/HR RAINFALL RATES ACROSS S CT AND
LONG ISLAND OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. THIS...ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
FROM NESDIS SATELLITE PRECIP ESTIMATE REPORTING A MAX PWAT PLUME
OF 1.65 INCHES WELL S OF LONG ISLAND EARLIER THIS MORNING. VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS ALSO NOTED S OF LONG ISLAND. DRY SLOT NOTED ON NE
REGIONAL 88D RADAR E OF KACY...WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT N-NE DURING
THE DAY. ALSO NOTED 06Z GFS OP RUN SUGGESTING UP TO 1.5 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL RATES IN TWO 6-HOUR PERIODS BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z MOVING
ACROSS RI/E MA. CONSIDERING THE NESDIS OBSERVATIONS...FELT THIS
WAS NOT TOO BAD SO UPDATED TO INCREASE PRECIP AMOUNTS. THIS GIVES
STORM TOTAL PRECIP OF 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS RI/E MA.
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION TO THE
FORECAST. WILL ALSO MONITOR FOR THE CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER THAT MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED ACROSS S COASTAL RI/MA. NOTING C/G LIGHTNING TO
THE E OF THE DRY SLOT. ALSO UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPTS TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
* SYNOPTICALLY...
PRESENT OFFSHORE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC CONUS BECOMES USURPED BY
AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE E-CONUS. ACROSS A REGION OF
FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / ATTENDANT DYNAMICS / STRONG FORCING AND
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT YIELDS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING LIFTING N INTO S NEW ENGLAND
BY EVENING. THE LOW BECOMES STALLED AND CUTOFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW UP
AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE ON NEARLY ALL SIDES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEK.
* HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...
AS THE LOW DEEPENS...EXPECT DECENT LOW-LEVEL TROWALING OF THE
WARM-CONVEYER-BELT BENEATH THE RRQ/LFQ OF ATTENDANT UPPER-LEVEL
JET AXES. COMBINATION OF THE CONVERGENT LEADING NOSE OF ISENTROPIC
UPSLOPE LENDING TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT AGAINST
NEIGHBORING HIGH PRESSURE YIELDING STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
IN A REGION OF MINOR -EPV INSTABILITY BENEATH AFOREMENTIONED DEEP
LAYER ASCENT LIKELY TO RESULT IN A ROUGHLY W-E BANDING SETUP OF
HIGHER WSR-88D RETURNS WITHIN A WIDESPREAD COMMA-SHAPED PRECIP
FIELD ALONG THE N-PERIPHERY OF THE H85 LOW WITH THE FRONT-END
THUMP OF PRECIP ANTICIPATED AROUND MIDDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
EARLY EVENING.
WILL EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
WITH HEIGHT OF THE E-NE WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN CONCURRENT WITH
TIMING OF HIGH TIDE CENTERED AROUND 1 PM BELIEVE SURGE ALONG WITH
BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS /SEE THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS/ WILL RESULT IN POOR-DRAINAGE ISSUES FOR COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. ANTICIPATE DRAINS TO BACK-UP BECOMING OVER-TOPPED
RESULTING IN SUSCEPTIBLE LOW- LYING AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS TO
BECOME FLOODED.
AM ALSO CONCERNED FOR EVEN THOSE COMMUNITIES WITHIN THE COASTAL
PLAIN IN VICINITY OF RIVERS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE TIDE /I.E.
TAUNTON RIVER...LOWER CONNECTICUT/. COULD ALSO SEE SOME EXACERBATED
FLOOD ISSUES FOR THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. PWATS OF
1.25-INCHES FORECAST /ROUGHLY +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL/
AND FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED. GROUND IS PRETTY SOLID /IMPERVIOUS/ THUS EXPECT
MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO BECOME RUNOFF. MAJORITY OF MAINSTEM RIVERS
OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAIN...SO CONCERNS
LIE IN THE REALM OF URBAN / POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF
DRAINS ARE STILL LEAF-CLOGGED. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN IS WITHIN THE
METRO-AREA CORRIDORS...ESPECIALLY BOSTON-PROVIDENCE. MAY NEED TO
EXPAND THE WATCH ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NW MA PENDING THE TIMING AT
WHICH WINTRY-PRECIP TYPES TRANSITION TO RAIN.
* WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
OUTCOMES DEPENDENT ON THERMAL FIELDS ALOFT...WHERE AROUND H925-H85
BY MORNING CONDITIONS ARE WARMING CONSIDERABLY UP AGAINST COLDER AIR
AND HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N/W. A SW-NE FREEZING LINE AROUND NW-CT
INTO S NH INITIALLY MODIFIES NW AS THE LOW DEEPENS RESULTING IN THE
INCREASE OF THE SE WARM-MOIST-CONVEYER-BELT. EXPECT THICKNESSES
TO GRADUALLY RISE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT INTO EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...AREAS BELOW FREEZING ERODE WITH INCREASING ONSHORE
E/NE-WINDS DURING THE MORNING /MORE ON THAT LATER/. UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH 09.0Z HIGH-RES MODELS DIFFERING IN TIMING OF EROSION.
AS MENTIONED IN PRIOR DISCUSSIONS...FOR AREAS THAT ARE WITHIN OR
ON THE CUSP OF BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY 1-2C...LINGERING AN
HOUR OR TWO MORE OR LESS CAN MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE WITH REGARDS
TO WINTER-WEATHER HEAD-LINES. H975-925 AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW IS
NOTABLY PERSISTENT AND STRONG OUT OF THE W AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES
TOWARDS S NEW ENGLAND. BUT NOT MUCH OF A N-COMPONENT NOR FROM
ARCTIC-SOURCE REGIONS...SO BELIEVE THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO MAINTAIN
/ PERSIST COLD AIR OVER THE REGION AGAINST STRONG ONSHORE E-FLOW.
WILL GO CLOSE TO THE NEAR-TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WHILE INCORPORATING
THE WRF-NMM WITH REGARDS TO THERMAL FIELDS...WHICH ARE HANDLING THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECENTLY. PREFERENCE TO THE 09.0Z ECMWF IS ALSO
GIVEN ESPECIALLY WHEN EVALUATING H100-H85 THICKNESSES. ONLY WRF-ARW
AND RAP LEAN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE OVER ALL OTHERS.
ALSO WILL GO WITH A TOP-DOWN APPROACH TOWARDS PRECIPITATION-TYPE
THAT INCORPORATES THE INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE S WITHIN OR
ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE REGION.
SO OVERALL...EXPECTING THE GRADUAL EROSION OF THE COASTAL-FRONT WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE E-FLOW. PUSH OF WARMER AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING LOW WILL RESULT IN PRECIP-TYPE TRANSITION FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO A SLEET / FREEZING RAIN MIX. THIS HAS SUBSEQUENTLY BUMPED DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RESULTING IN A RANGE OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS NW MA.
MOST OF THE REGION CHANGES OVER TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY
WITH ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES CONTINUALLY UNDER
THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN.
HAVE DROPPED WINTER-STORM WATCHES AND REPLACED WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. HAVE TRIMMED THE EASTERN-EXTENT WITH EROSION OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THE SURGE OF WARMER AIR ONSHORE. AGAIN...THE
THERMAL FIELDS DISCUSSION ABOVE GIVE AN INDICATION OF PREFERRED
MODEL GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES DROP MAINLY
AROUND THE MIDDAY HOURS.
MID-LEVEL DRY-SLOT WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING OCCLUSION BEGINNING
TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD RESULT IN A LULL OF PRECIPITATION AS WE GO
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...
NOTING E-WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL WILL BE AROUND 55 MPH AROUND THE MIDDAY
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS...THE PRESENCE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT LENDING TO
AN INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO CONSIDER A
HIGH WIND WARNING. THIS DESPITE WARMER AIR WIGGLING ITS WAY UP FROM
THE S AT THE SURFACE...AND A WARMER OCEAN /THOUGH NOW AROUND THE LOW-
50S/. BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL BE LIMITED. HIGH-END WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTS EXCEEDING
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THUS WENT WITH THE WIND ADVISORY.
COULD PRECIPITATION-DRAG PROCESSES BRING FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE? YES...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE MIX WHICH IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR SE-WATERS ADJACENT TO
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE GONE WITH THE HEADLINES THAT CONVEY THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE.
* COASTAL FLOODING...
SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
SEE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* REMAINING UNSETTLED WITH SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT
* IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
CLOSED LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS NEW ENG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTH ATLANTIC BLOCKING IS VERY SLOW
TO BREAK DOWN. TYPICALLY THESE BLOCKS ARE SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SO THREAT OF SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. CERTAINLY NOT LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD PRECIP
AND MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...BUT THERE WILL BE SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES AS COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS -25 TO -30C
AND DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE PRESENT INTO SATURDAY. LOW
PREDICTABILITY ON TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS...BUT DURING WED NIGHT SNE
WILL BE ON SE EDGE OF COMMA HEAD AND QG FORCING OVER NNY AND THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUM ACROSS WESTERN MA.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW AND COLD POOL ARE FINALLY FORECAST TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE NEW ENG WITH SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN
AND GOOD DRYING IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. BY NEXT TUESDAY...NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING AND WE COULD HAVE A
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A LOW PROB OF SHOWERS.
WE USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODERATING A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
12Z UPDATE...
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS WITH MAINLY +RA. AN ISOLATED TSRA IS
POSSIBLE FOR FAR SE-COASTAL TERMINALS. OTHERWISE GRADUAL EROSION
TO N/W OF FZRA/PL/SN INTO THE EARLY-AFTERNOON HOURS DURING WHICH
TIME WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE E WITH STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG
THE E-SHORELINE MAINLY AROUND 40 KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS UP
TO 50 KT. WILL ALSO SEE AN ACCOMPANYING LLWS THREAT WITH WINDS
AROUND 2 KFT AGL OUT OF THE E AROUND 60 KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FEEL CONFIDENT WITH TRENDS BUT NOT SO MUCH WITH SPECIFICS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF CONTINUED +RA WITH INCREASING E-WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
40 KT ANTICIPATED TOWARDS THE MIDDAY HRS. WIND ADVISORY LENDING
TO ISSUANCE OF AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FZRA PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS...THEN CHANGING OVER
TO RAIN. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON TIMING BUT CONFIDENT WITH
TRENDS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MIX OF VFR CIGS AND
MVFR. ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
1030 AM UPDATE...
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON NOTING SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 10-15 FT ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND EVEN PUSHING INTO MASS BAY ON THE E FETCH.
HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE THE SEAS TO AT LEAST THESE LEVELS. EXPECT
STRONGEST WINDS TO PUSH INTO THE WATERS. GUSTS UP TO 33 KT REPORTS
AT BUOY 44020 /NANTUCKET SOUND/ AND 31 KT AT BOTH MASS BAY BUOYS
WITH 35 KT GUSTS AT THE BUZZARDS BAY TOWER AT 15Z. FORECAST
THROUGH TODAY PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE GONE WITH STORM WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER WATERS WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF GUSTS AROUND 45-50 KT. BUT GREATER CONFIDENCE OF
THE INNER WATERS REACHING HIGH-END GALE WARNING CRITERIA
PERMITTED THE DISCONTINUING OF THE STORM WATCH. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED GUST UP TO 50 KTS OVER THE INNER WATERS...BUT WITH IT
NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD...KEPT WITH GALE WARNINGS.
STRONGEST E-WINDS OCCURRING TOWARDS THE MIDDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SEAS BUILDING 15 TO 20 FEET WITH INCREASING E WINDS AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA PRESENTLY
AS IT LIFTS N INTO S NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
ACCOMPANYING HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL YIELD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ON THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT...ESPECIALLY S WATERS AS LOW PRES MOVES SLOWLY N THROUGH NEW
ENG. ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE...UP TO 10-11 FT SOUTHERN WATERS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...GRADIENT RELAXES AND EXPECT DIMINISHING WIND
AND SEAS. WEST WINDS FRI GRADUALLY VEERING TO NORTH BY SAT. SEAS
SUBSIDING BELOW SCA BY SAT.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A
BIT AS GRADIENT INCREASES. CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY E
WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATED 950 AM TUE...
EXPANDED FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE MARTHAS VINEYARD AND BLOCK ISLAND.
ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES...COMBINATION
OF RAINFALL AND RISING TIDE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ESPECIALLY ON E/SE SHORELINES. BUOYS
REPORTING 5-6 FT SEAS ON NANTUCKET SOUND AND 11 FT SE OF BLOCK
ISLAND. SIMILAR SITUATION FOR CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT URBAN
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN RI AND E MA. ALREADY SEEING RAINFALL
RATES OF NEARLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN CT /KSNC ASOS/
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE OVER OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
URBAN HOT SPOTS SUCH AS PEABODY...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD AND
CRANSTON MAY BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. TOTALS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW 3 OR 4 INCH TOTALS NOT OUT OF
QUESTION NEAR I-95 CORRIDOR.
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY...BUT WORST CASE
WOULD BE FOR MINOR FLOODING IF TOTALS EXCEED 3 INCHES.
NOT EXPECTING FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS. LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE
BRINGS LOWER CT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM TO ACTION STAGE...WHICH IS
PRIMARILY BASED ON SURGE OF 2 FT INTO LOWER CT RIVER. WE MAY ALSO
SEE SIMILAR SURGE ALONG PAWCATUCK RIVER NEAR WESTERLY RI WHICH
COULD BRING RISES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR EASTERN MA. COMBINATION OF
WINDS / SEAS / SURGE OF AROUND 1.5 TO 2 FEET DURING THE MIDDAY
HIGH-TIDE YIELDS THE LIKELIHOOD OF OBSERVING MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION FOR E-FACING SHORELINES WHERE SEAS OF
12 TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.
AS NOTED IN THE HYDROLOGY PORTION ABOVE...LOCAL STREAMS AND
TRIBUTARIES EMPTYING INTO THE SEA COULD SEE BACK-FILLING ISSUES AS
THE HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE TIME OF HIGH-TIDE. COULD
SEE FLOODING ISSUES EXACERBATED FOR EASTERN MA SHORELINE
COMMUNITIES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-011>024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
019>024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>234-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235>237.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1240 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHILE MANY
VALLEY AND EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE A TRANSITION OF A WINTRY MIX TO
RAIN...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE CATSKILLS
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH A MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN
THESE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH THE STORM REMAINING CLOSE TO THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1014 AM EST...A 1004 HPA COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO BE JUST
E/SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
MSAS MSLP ANALYSIS. THE BEST 3-HR MSLP /5-6 HPAS/FALLS ARE NORTH
OF THE SFC CYCLONE. THE LATEST KENX VWP SHOWS A STRONG E/SE LLJ
IN THR 3-6 KFT AGL LAYER OF 25-35 KTS. THIS PRONOUNCED LLJ HAS
YIELDED SOME SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING OFF THE SRN GREENS...NRN
BERKS...AND THE NRN TACONICS. THE PCPN IS FINALLY TRYING TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER HUDSON REGION...AND SRN VT. THE SRN DACKS
ARE ALSO SLOWLY...BUT FINALLY...GETTING INTO A THE PCPN SHIELD. THE
LLJ CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY JUST S/SE OF THE REGION...AND THE BEST
QG LIFT WITH THE EARLY PHASES OF THE STORM IS OVER COASTAL SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND AT THIS TIME. THE STRONG LIFT WILL IMPACT
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.
PTYPES HAVE FAVORED SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. THE 12Z
KALY SOUNDING INDICATES A SLEET PROFILE. SOME HAS OCCURRED IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH THE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. SOME ICE REPORTS
HAVE COME IN...WITH PERU IN THE S-CNTRL BERKS HAVING TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH. THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM WITH KPOU ABOVE FREEZING
WITH LIGHT RAIN...WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION TO MDT-HVY RAIN OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WE WILL LET THE ADVISORY RUN UNTIL 11 AM...FOR
ERN ULSTER/DUTCHESS/LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...AS SOME TEMPS ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW OR ARE HOVERING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.
FURTHER NORTH...THE DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED KPSF/KAQW/KDDH TO
ALLOW JUMP ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE MID AND U30S. SOME WET BULB
COOLING SHOULD LOWER THESE TEMPS CLOSER TO FREEZING. PTYPES WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDING THE HOURLIES AND A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND. MIXED PCPN WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...N-CNTRL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SNOW...WITH A LIGHT MIXED TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN...BEFORE
GOING BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINED
TUNED.
SOME OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN SNOW VS. WINTRY MIX VS. RAIN.
THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS/HELDERBERGS AND POINTS WESTWARD INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER NORTH...THE PRECIP WILL EXPAND INTO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS BY THE EARLY AFTN HOURS. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
SNOW FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...BUT WILL LIKELY MIX FOR
THE SARATOGA/GLENS FALLS AREA. EVEN UP THERE...A CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTN HOURS...AS WARM AIR...BOTH AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
FURTHER EAST...THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX FOR SOUTHERN
VT/BERKSHIRES AS WELL...EVEN ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN...AS WARM
AIR ALOFT OF NEARLY 3 DEGREES C MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
SOME SNOW/SLEET WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER...BUT
THE CHANGEOVER WILL PREVENT WARNING LEVEL SNOW FROM OCCURRING. SOME
STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN GREENS...TACONICS AND
BERKSHIRES...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE FULL
BRUNT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN DUE TO STABLE LOW LEVELS...BUT SOME GUSTS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS THAT CHANNEL E-SE FLOW WELL. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS WIND THREAT IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.
AS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING...STEADY PRECIP WILL START TO SHUT OFF ACROSS OUR
AREA. THE SFC LOW WILL BE MEANDERING OVER THE NYC/LONG ISLAND
AREA...AND THE 500 HPA LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE DELMARVA
AREA. AS A RESULT...SOME ADDITIONAL ON AND OFF PRECIP WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE PVA/CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
STEADY OR HEAVY. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS
ALOFT...AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A LACK OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE
CLOUDS...AS THE BEST DEEPER AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS SHIFT AWAY FROM
THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY
OCCUR...ALONG WITH SOME BURSTS OF SNOW/RAIN/SLEET AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION.
BECAUSE OF ALL OF THIS...WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE NOT ISSUED
OUTSIDE THE CATSKILLS/MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS
BECAUSE WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL /7 INCHES IN 12 HOURS OR 9 INCHES
IN 24 HOURS/ IS NOT EXPECTED. STILL...A WINTRY MIX...EVEN THOUGH
IT WILL GO OVER TO RAIN...WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IN THE
CAPITAL REGION/GLENS FALLS AND SARATOGA AREAS/BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN
VT/...AND THIS IS WHY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THESE AREAS WILL VARY
BASED ON ELEVATION...WITH JUST UP TO A FEW INCHES IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. JUST A COATING
TO AN INCH OF SNOW/SLEET/ICE IS EXPECTED FOR THE
POUGHKEEPSIE/KINGSTON AREA AND NW CT...AS PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY GO
OVER TO RAIN THERE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT...AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOOD CONCERNS. SEE
OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS THREAT.
MEANWHILE... 6 TO 12 INCHES LOOK TO ACCUMULATE IN THE
CATSKILLS...HELDERBERGS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND
ADIRONDACKS. EVEN IN THESE AREAS...SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...AND VALLEYS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
CATSKILLS IN THE GREENE COUNTY...AND IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SRN ADIRONDACKS OF WARREN COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL BE RATHER
WET...AND THIS MAY MAKE FOR SOME POWER OUTAGES/DOWNED TREE
LIMBS...ESP CONSIDERING THAT STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
WHILE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHAT WAVE/S/ WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION...MOISTURE WILL WRAP IN OFF THE ATLANTIC TO KEEP THE
HIGH PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST LOCATIONS WILL BE
ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTHWARD. AS FOR THERMAL
PROFILES...WE WILL BE COOLING DOWN THE COLUMN WHERE MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS FOR THE
SPECIFIC...
WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE POINT TOWARD A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
REMAINS JUST OFF THE JERSEY SHORE. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HIGHER
THETA-E /TROWAL/ BACK INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES REMAIN RATHER HIGH OF 3-4 G/KG SO
WHERE IT DOES SNOW...WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.
PER THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND 00Z ECMWF...THIS SEEMS TO LINE
UP FOR OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING WILL
TAKE PLACE AS PER CSTAR RESEARCH...THESE UPPER LOWS ARE QUITE
PROBLEMATIC WITH PROVIDING SPECIFICS WHERE THE HEAVIER QPF WILL FALL.
THURSDAY...AS THE LOW FILLS AND FURTHER REDUCES THE
BAROCLINICITY...THE PRECIP INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH. SO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH
JUST A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
EASTWARD...ITS INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHC-SCT SNOW PROBABILITIES WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING.
WE WILL USE A BLENDED APPROACH TO THE MOS TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE
FAIRLY CLOSE IN VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE LOST ITS BAROCLINICITY BY
THEN RESULTING IN MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST
AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK IN FROM THE
WEST...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS WE SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR A PASSING
SNOW SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING.
IT LOOKS LIKE DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY PREVAIL FOR LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY THE CUT-OFF LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. THE ECMWF IS RATHER SLOW
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE CUT-OFF...LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW UNTIL
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN BY LATE
SATURDAY. AGAIN...THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON CLOUD COVER BUT WE
ARE EXPECTING PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE RISING UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS...SURFACE TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO EXPECTED SHALLOW MIXING THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TRANQUIL WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST FOR MON NT AND TUE. WILL ADD SLIGHT CHC POPS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHETHER A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM YET AGAIN...ALBEIT IN
A WEAKER STATE THAN THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION
TYPES WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ALONG
WITH IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.
THIS AFTERNOON...WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT THE
TAF SITES WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY 20Z...WITH
RAIN ALREADY OCCURRING AT KALB...KPOU AND KPSF. RAIN MAY CONTINUE TO
BRIEFLY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES AT KGFL AND KALB AND HAVE PLACED
TEMPO GROUPS FROM 18Z TO 20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY RAIN/SLEET MIX.
AFTER 20Z...LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TO SUPPORT
ALL RAIN AT THE TAF SITES. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR
AND MVFR DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY MVFR
VISIBILITIES...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY COULD EASILY LOWER TO IFR AS
WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVERNIGHT. RAIN
SHOULD CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL 03Z-08Z...WHEN A TRANSITION
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES WITH KGFL
MIXING WITH SNOW CLOSER TO 03Z AND KALB AND KPSF TRANSITIONING
BETWEEN 06Z-08Z. HAVE HELD OFF ANY MENTION OF SNOW AT KPOU UNTIL 12Z
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES AFTER 12Z
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW AT
ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT...DUTCHESS COUNTY NEW YORK AND EASTERN ULSTER COUNTY
NEW YORK...FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FOR NORTHWESTERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL PRIMARY AS SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX. MEANWHILE...ACROSS SOUTHERN AND VALLEY AREAS...PRECIP WILL
BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX AND TRANSITION TO RAIN.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT VALUES WILL BE 0.50 OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS TO NEARLY 2.00 INCHES OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH
MUCH OF THIS FALLING AS RAINFALL OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY
DURING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN PRECIP
WILL BE HEAVIEST. THIS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE
GROUND IS FROZEN. RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE LIKELY...AND
MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AND
IT/S TRIBUTARIES IN NW CT.
IN ADDITION...THE STRONG COASTAL LOW IS ALLOWING FOR SOME TIDAL
FLOODING ALONG COASTAL AREAS...AND THIS COULD CAUSE A BACKUP OF
WATER ON THE HUDSON RIVER. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE IN THE POUGHKEEPSIE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT IN AREAS THAT SEE THE HEAVIEST LIQUID PRECIP TODAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO RECEDE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>040-042-043-047-048-051-058-063-082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ041-
049-050-052>054-059>061-083-084.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ064>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
142 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY
WEAKENS AND MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
FOR OUR WEATHER THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE MID-MORNING UPDATE...THE FORECAST FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS BASICALLY ON TRACK BUT HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME
OF THE HAZARDS. AS OF 900 AM TEMPS ACROSS ALL THE FCST AREA SEEM
TO HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING AND ALL REPORTED PRECIP IS RAIN...SO
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF NW NJ AND ERN PA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
TODAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXPECTED SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...RADAR SHOWS THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN NOW WRAPPING
WWD ACROSS NRN NJ AND INTO ERN PA. THIS AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NWD ALONG WITH THE LOW-LVL STORM CENTER AND BEST EASTERLY
INFLOW. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE AREAS
FROM PHL SWWD...AND ALSO ADD THE TIER OF COUNTIES OVER FAR NW NJ
AND ADJ ERN PA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MULTI-FACETED HAZARD HEADLINE EVENT IN PROGRESS.
FOCUSING ON IMPACTS AND BRIEFLY DISCUSSING SCIENCE WHERE IT MAY BE
HELPFUL.
FLOOD WATCH: WE MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE SW PORTION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH IN OUR MID OR LATE MORNING UPDATE. IT LOOKS TO ME PER THE
RECENT GFS AND HRRR AS WELL AS RADAR THAT THE GREATER RISK FOR
REPEAT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL BE COASTAL AND NORTHERN NJ
AND MAYBE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF KRDG.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.
WIND ADVY: BEST POTENTIAL WHERE DESCRIBED ...MAY NEED TO ADD ATLANTIC
COUNTY AT THE LAST MINUTE. FEW GUSTS OF 45 KT EXPECTED MID OR LATE
MORNING. AT 5 AM ..MANY REPORTS AROUND 40 KT DE COAST TO MD ATLANTIC
COAST BORDERING DE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES: CUT THE SE TIER AT 630 AM AND CHANGED
TO HEAVIER ICE ACCUMS THE REMAINING ADVISORY AND ALSO THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. STILL SLEET IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.
WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE NEW ADVISORIES FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
BACKSIDE BANDING DEVELOPS ON BACK BENT MID LEVEL FRONT AND STILL
WAA OVER NYS AND NEW ENGLAND DRIVING LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT
SIDE OF THE 700 LOW. THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL MAY ADD TO THE PROBLEMS AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING.
WINTER STORM WARNING EXTENDED TO 18Z WED TO CAPTURE BACKSIDE SNOW.
THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST. NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE WESTERN PORTION OF CARBON/MONROE COUNTY
WITH EXPECTED MXD FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN AT THE START CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING. THEN THE LIFT WEAKENS LATE
MORNING AND IT MAY TURN TO RAIN OR FREEZING THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL AND THEN WE LOOK FOR POTENTIAL
BANDING AND IF THIS OCCURS...ADDITIONAL MDT OR HEAVY SNOWFALL
WOULD OCCUR. DIFFICULT FORECAST AND WE`RE TRYING TO SLICE THIS
VERY CLOSE TO THE MARK. A WORRISOME FORECAST ON PTYPE.
AT 5AM..SE MONROE COUNTY HEAVY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WE ARE
GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN IN ALLAMUCHY (.1 GLAZE) AND
OXFORD NJ HAS SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM FOR SOME INFO AND CONTINUE THE THEME WRITTEN
IN THE AFD FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE SNOWFALL TO OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AS STRONGER OMEGA AND FGEN COME TOGETHER.
MOSTLY BASED ON WHERE WE THINK THE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
SETUP...IN PENNSYLVANIA. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE PRETTY HEFTY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PA ZONES WEST OF PHILADELPHIA DOYLESTOWN AND
ALLENTOWN OVERNIGHT (EXCT SNOW GROWTH AND I THINK POTENTIAL FOR
4+ IF THE MODELED SCENARIO VERIFIES) AS WE SEE THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN BACK TO SNOW. STILL THINK A SWATH OF 8-10 INCHES IS VERY
POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WESTERN
MONROE AND WESTERN CARBON COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG LOW WHICH WILL MEANDER NORTH/EAST OF
THE REGION. BANDS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ACCUMS POSSIBLE MOSTLY N/W. GFS MODEL OVERNIGHT PAINTS SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS LEHIGH VALLEY NORTH AND WEST...BUT THIS WAS TONED DOWN
SOMEWHAT WITH AN EC SOLUTION MORE LIKELY. WE COULD ADD 1 TO 2
INCHES TO SNOW TOTALS WED N/W.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE LOW STARTS TO RELAX ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. CHC
POPS N/W AND SLGT CHC POPS S/E...THESE POPS DECREASE THU NIGHT.
FRI THRU MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SEVERAL DRY DAYS
EXPECTED. MODERATING TEMPS...WITH READINGS 4 OR 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SAT THEN RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LATE DAY AND TONIGHT...LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE-DAY, BEFORE WINDS BACK
A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUSTS DECREASE SOMEWHAT TO MORE
IN THE 18 TO 24 KNOT RANGE FOR LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
STORM SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY MOVING AWAY OVERNIGHT, MORE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WILL YIELD SOME BANDS OF RAIN SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH RAIN CHANGING TO WET SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT KRDG AND
KABE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAVE MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND A WINDOW OF A FEW HOURS OF
POSSIBLE WET SNOW TOWARD THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES, INCLUDING
KPHL, INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED RESTRICTIONS IN THE MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR RANGE
WITH SOME BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE, WITH GUSTS INCREASING DURING THE DAYTIME, MORE IN THE 23
TO 30 KNOT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR OR
IFR IN BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-30
KNOTS AT TIMES.
FRIDAY: VFR...A FEW WIDELY SCT SHOWERS FAR N/W EARLY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF GREAT EGG INLET AND FOR LOWER DELAWARE
BAY. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES NORTH OF GREAT EGG IN TIGHTER PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF DEEPENING SFC LOW AND GALE FORCE NE WINDS. THE
SCA WAS EXTENDED OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY NEED FURTHER EXTENSION
INTO WED FOR ALL WATERS...AS THE SFC LOW IS FCST TO STALL INVOF
LONG ISLAND. WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE OR MORE OFFSHORE RESULTING
IN SMWHT LOWER SEAS WITH THE MORE LIMITED FETCH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON OUR WATERS WITH NO CHANGES. THERE COULD
BE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING-MIDDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A STORM WARNING NOR DO WE THINK
THEY WILL BE PERSISTENT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UPWARDS OF 15
FEET ACROSS A MAJORITY OF OUR WATERS....POSSIBLY BRIEFLY 17 OR 18
FT AT 44009.
WINDS SUBSIDE LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW PARKED EAST BELMAR. SCA
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH END SCA CONDITIONS WITH GALE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. SEAS MOSTLY 5 TO 9 FEET.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS AND GUSTS CONTINUE WITH LOW
PRESSURE STILL TO NORTHEAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM PHILLY NORTH.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH THE BULK
OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PUSHING NORTH. FOUR COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
ADDED OF THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY, LEHIGH NORTHEAST THROUGH SUSSEX AS
THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME LIQUID.
THE HEAVIER RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE ENDING. RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT,
LONGER IN SOME SPOTS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE WET DUE TO THE
RAINS THE REGION SAW THIS PAST SATURDAY. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A
MORE EFFICIENT RUNOFF.
WHERE IT RAINS THE HEAVIEST, TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. THERE COULD BE SOME TOTALS OVER 3 INCHES.
SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE THE FIRST BODIES OF WATER TO
RESPOND. THEY ALREADY HAVE. THOSE AREAS WHICH DRAIN INTO TIDAL
WATERS COULD SEE INCREASED FLOODING (IN THE MINOR CATEGORY) DUE TO
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES.
ON THE LARGER BODIES OF WATER THAT ARE SUPPORTED BY THE MARFC, THERE
ARE ABOUT A DOZEN FORECAST POINTS THAT EXCEED CAUTION/ACTION STAGE,
A FEW OF THEM LASTING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAJORITY OF
THESE POINT ARE IN NJ.
AS FOR GAUGES HITTING FLOOD STAGE, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON BLACKWELLS
MILLS AND PEMBERTON. IF RUNOFF AND RISES CONTINUE AS EXPECTED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON, FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. PEMBERTON
COULD HIT FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND BLACKWELLS MILLS
COULD HIT FLOOD STAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH IS EASING AND REVERSING THE POSITIVE TIDAL
ANOMALIES ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED BACK BAYS, AND THE DELAWARE
BAY TOO. WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST PEAKED AT OR JUST BELOW THE
MODERATE THRESHOLD AT HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, AND
WITH DECREASING ANOMALIES AND LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DURING THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE, NO SIGNIFICANT TIDAL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. EVEN ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY, WATER LEVELS PEAKED BELOW
EVEN THE MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD AT REEDY POINT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT, ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR IN NATURE.
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE THEREFORE NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD RAINFALLS FOR TUESDAY IN OUR HISTORICAL DATABASE.
ACY 2.51 2009
PHL 2.13 2009
ILG 2.28 2009
ABE 1.51 1973
TTN 2.25 1978
GED 1.93 2009
RDG 1.16 2009
MPO 1.82 1974
RECORD SNOWFALL FOR WEDNESDAY (LONG SHOT BUT JUST IN CASE)
PHL 4.3 1904
ILG 2.9 2013
ABE 2.7 2013
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ061-062-103>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-
012>015-019-020-025>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-
022-025>027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
453>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...AMC/DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
133 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY
WEAKENS AND MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
FOR OUR WEATHER THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE MID-MORNING UPDATE...THE FORECAST FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS BASICALLY ON TRACK BUT HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME
OF THE HAZARDS. AS OF 900 AM TEMPS ACROSS ALL THE FCST AREA SEEM
TO HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING AND ALL REPORTED PRECIP IS RAIN...SO
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF NW NJ AND ERN PA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
TODAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXPECTED SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...RADAR SHOWS THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN NOW WRAPPING
WWD ACROSS NRN NJ AND INTO ERN PA. THIS AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NWD ALONG WITH THE LOW-LVL STORM CENTER AND BEST EASTERLY
INFLOW. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE AREAS
FROM PHL SWWD...AND ALSO ADD THE TIER OF COUNTIES OVER FAR NW NJ
AND ADJ ERN PA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MULTI-FACETED HAZARD HEADLINE EVENT IN PROGRESS.
FOCUSING ON IMPACTS AND BRIEFLY DISCUSSING SCIENCE WHERE IT MAY BE
HELPFUL.
FLOOD WATCH: WE MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE SW PORTION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH IN OUR MID OR LATE MORNING UPDATE. IT LOOKS TO ME PER THE
RECENT GFS AND HRRR AS WELL AS RADAR THAT THE GREATER RISK FOR
REPEAT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL BE COASTAL AND NORTHERN NJ
AND MAYBE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF KRDG.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING: HAZARD ON TARGET WITH MDT FLOODING ASSURED
AND IT MAY BE A STRONG MODERATE DOWN IN THE CAPE MAY-LEWES AREA.
SURGE OF 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET AT HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. SANDY
HOOK LINKED COUNTIES I THINK MAY ESCAPE MDT FLOODING BUT NO CHANGE
TO THE WARNING. DEPARTURES AT SANDY HOOK ABOUT A FOOT LESS THAN
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE STRONGER INFLOW AND LOWER PRESSURE.
WIND ADVY: BEST POTENTIAL WHERE DESCRIBED ...MAY NEED TO ADD ATLANTIC
COUNTY AT THE LAST MINUTE. FEW GUSTS OF 45 KT EXPECTED MID OR LATE
MORNING. AT 5 AM ..MANY REPORTS AROUND 40 KT DE COAST TO MD ATLANTIC
COAST BORDERING DE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES: CUT THE SE TIER AT 630 AM AND CHANGED
TO HEAVIER ICE ACCUMS THE REMAINING ADVISORY AND ALSO THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. STILL SLEET IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.
WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE NEW ADVISORIES FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
BACKSIDE BANDING DEVELOPS ON BACK BENT MID LEVEL FRONT AND STILL
WAA OVER NYS AND NEW ENGLAND DRIVING LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT
SIDE OF THE 700 LOW. THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL MAY ADD TO THE PROBLEMS AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING.
WINTER STORM WARNING EXTENDED TO 18Z WED TO CAPTURE BACKSIDE SNOW.
THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST. NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE WESTERN PORTION OF CARBON/MONROE COUNTY
WITH EXPECTED MXD FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN AT THE START CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING. THEN THE LIFT WEAKENS LATE
MORNING AND IT MAY TURN TO RAIN OR FREEZING THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL AND THEN WE LOOK FOR POTENTIAL
BANDING AND IF THIS OCCURS...ADDITIONAL MDT OR HEAVY SNOWFALL
WOULD OCCUR. DIFFICULT FORECAST AND WE`RE TRYING TO SLICE THIS
VERY CLOSE TO THE MARK. A WORRISOME FORECAST ON PTYPE.
AT 5AM..SE MONROE COUNTY HEAVY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WE ARE
GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN IN ALLAMUCHY (.1 GLAZE) AND
OXFORD NJ HAS SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM FOR SOME INFO AND CONTINUE THE THEME WRITTEN
IN THE AFD FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE SNOWFALL TO OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AS STRONGER OMEGA AND FGEN COME TOGETHER.
MOSTLY BASED ON WHERE WE THINK THE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
SETUP...IN PENNSYLVANIA. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE PRETTY HEFTY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PA ZONES WEST OF PHILADELPHIA DOYLESTOWN AND
ALLENTOWN OVERNIGHT (EXCT SNOW GROWTH AND I THINK POTENTIAL FOR
4+ IF THE MODELED SCENARIO VERIFIES) AS WE SEE THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN BACK TO SNOW. STILL THINK A SWATH OF 8-10 INCHES IS VERY
POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WESTERN
MONROE AND WESTERN CARBON COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG LOW WHICH WILL MEANDER NORTH/EAST OF
THE REGION. BANDS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ACCUMS POSSIBLE MOSTLY N/W. GFS MODEL OVERNIGHT PAINTS SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS LEHIGH VALLEY NORTH AND WEST...BUT THIS WAS TONED DOWN
SOMEWHAT WITH AN EC SOLUTION MORE LIKELY. WE COULD ADD 1 TO 2
INCHES TO SNOW TOTALS WED N/W.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE LOW STARTS TO RELAX ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. CHC
POPS N/W AND SLGT CHC POPS S/E...THESE POPS DECREASE THU NIGHT.
FRI THRU MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SEVERAL DRY DAYS
EXPECTED. MODERATING TEMPS...WITH READINGS 4 OR 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SAT THEN RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LATE DAY AND TONIGHT...LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE-DAY, BEFORE WINDS BACK
A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUSTS DECREASE SOMEWHAT TO MORE
IN THE 18 TO 24 KNOT RANGE FOR LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
STORM SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY MOVING AWAY OVERNIGHT, MORE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WILL YIELD SOME BANDS OF RAIN SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH RAIN CHANGING TO WET SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT KRDG AND
KABE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAVE MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND A WINDOW OF A FEW HOURS OF
POSSIBLE WET SNOW TOWARD THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES, INCLUDING
KPHL, INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED RESTRICTIONS IN THE MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR RANGE
WITH SOME BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE, WITH GUSTS INCREASING DURING THE DAYTIME, MORE IN THE 23
TO 30 KNOT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR OR
IFR IN BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-30
KNOTS AT TIMES.
FRIDAY: VFR...A FEW WIDELY SCT SHOWERS FAR N/W EARLY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF GREAT EGG INLET AND FOR LOWER DELAWARE
BAY. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES NORTH OF GREAT EGG IN TIGHTER PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF DEEPENING SFC LOW AND GALE FORCE NE WINDS. THE
SCA WAS EXTENDED OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY NEED FURTHER EXTENSION
INTO WED FOR ALL WATERS...AS THE SFC LOW IS FCST TO STALL INVOF
LONG ISLAND. WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE OR MORE OFFSHORE RESULTING
IN SMWHT LOWER SEAS WITH THE MORE LIMITED FETCH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON OUR WATERS WITH NO CHANGES. THERE COULD
BE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING-MIDDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A STORM WARNING NOR DO WE THINK
THEY WILL BE PERSISTENT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UPWARDS OF 15
FEET ACROSS A MAJORITY OF OUR WATERS....POSSIBLY BRIEFLY 17 OR 18
FT AT 44009.
WINDS SUBSIDE LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW PARKED EAST BELMAR. SCA
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH END SCA CONDITIONS WITH GALE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. SEAS MOSTLY 5 TO 9 FEET.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS AND GUSTS CONTINUE WITH LOW
PRESSURE STILL TO NORTHEAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM PHILLY NORTH.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH THE BULK
OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PUSHING NORTH. FOUR COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
ADDED OF THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY, LEHIGH NORTHEAST THROUGH SUSSEX AS
THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME LIQUID.
THE HEAVIER RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE ENDING. RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT,
LONGER IN SOME SPOTS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE WET DUE TO THE
RAINS THE REGION SAW THIS PAST SATURDAY. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A
MORE EFFICIENT RUNOFF.
WHERE IT RAINS THE HEAVIEST, TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. THERE COULD BE SOME TOTALS OVER 3 INCHES.
SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE THE FIRST BODIES OF WATER TO
RESPOND. THEY ALREADY HAVE. THOSE AREAS WHICH DRAIN INTO TIDAL
WATERS COULD SEE INCREASED FLOODING (IN THE MINOR CATEGORY) DUE TO
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES.
ON THE LARGER BODIES OF WATER THAT ARE SUPPORTED BY THE MARFC, THERE
ARE ABOUT A DOZEN FORECAST POINTS THAT EXCEED CAUTION/ACTION STAGE,
A FEW OF THEM LASTING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAJORITY OF
THESE POINT ARE IN NJ.
AS FOR GAUGES HITTING FLOOD STAGE, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON BLACKWELLS
MILLS AND PEMBERTON. IF RUNOFF AND RISES CONTINUE AS EXPECTED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON, FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. PEMBERTON
COULD HIT FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND BLACKWELLS MILLS
COULD HIT FLOOD STAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION.
WATER BUILDUP HAS OCCURRED IN ALL OUR TIDAL WATERS DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL TIDE CYCLES, INCLUDING THE DELAWARE AND CHESAPEAKE BAYS AND
THE DELAWARE RIVER. ANOMALIES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND
2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY, AND 2.5 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CITY. IN THE DELAWARE BAY, ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL, AND IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY 1 FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN THESE ANOMALIES
THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN,
AS THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHWEST, WHICH SHOULD EAT AWAY
AT THESE ANOMALIES, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CITY. LOWER ANOMALIES
COMBINED WITH A SMALLER ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION (0.5 TO 1.0 FOOT
LOWER) SHOULD KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT IN THE MINOR RANGE FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTH.
SO...MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED
BACKBAYS WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE, MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED
ALONG THE SHORES OF THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY, AND MINOR TO LOW END
MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE (NORTH OF REEDY
POINT, INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA), AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. AS ALWAYS, ROUGH SURF
AND HEAVY RAIN AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WILL EXACERBATE THE FLOODING
ISSUE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD RAINFALLS FOR TUESDAY IN OUR HISTORICAL DATABASE.
ACY 2.51 2009
PHL 2.13 2009
ILG 2.28 2009
ABE 1.51 1973
TTN 2.25 1978
GED 1.93 2009
RDG 1.16 2009
MPO 1.82 1974
RECORD SNOWFALL FOR WEDNESDAY (LONG SHOT BUT JUST IN CASE)
PHL 4.3 1904
ILG 2.9 2013
ABE 2.7 2013
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ061-062-103>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-
012>015-019-020-025>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-
022-025>027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
453>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...AMC/DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA
CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1255 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY
WEAKENS AND MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
FOR OUR WEATHER THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE MID-MORNING UPDATE...THE FORECAST FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS BASICALLY ON TRACK BUT HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME
OF THE HAZARDS. AS OF 900 AM TEMPS ACROSS ALL THE FCST AREA SEEM
TO HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING AND ALL REPORTED PRECIP IS RAIN...SO
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF NW NJ AND ERN PA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
TODAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXPECTED SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...RADAR SHOWS THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN NOW WRAPPING
WWD ACROSS NRN NJ AND INTO ERN PA. THIS AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NWD ALONG WITH THE LOW-LVL STORM CENTER AND BEST EASTERLY
INFLOW. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE AREAS
FROM PHL SWWD...AND ALSO ADD THE TIER OF COUNTIES OVER FAR NW NJ
AND ADJ ERN PA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MULTI-FACETED HAZARD HEADLINE EVENT IN PROGRESS.
FOCUSING ON IMPACTS AND BRIEFLY DISCUSSING SCIENCE WHERE IT MAY BE
HELPFUL.
FLOOD WATCH: WE MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE SW PORTION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH IN OUR MID OR LATE MORNING UPDATE. IT LOOKS TO ME PER THE
RECENT GFS AND HRRR AS WELL AS RADAR THAT THE GREATER RISK FOR
REPEAT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL BE COASTAL AND NORTHERN NJ
AND MAYBE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF KRDG.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING: HAZARD ON TARGET WITH MDT FLOODING ASSURED
AND IT MAY BE A STRONG MODERATE DOWN IN THE CAPE MAY-LEWES AREA.
SURGE OF 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET AT HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. SANDY
HOOK LINKED COUNTIES I THINK MAY ESCAPE MDT FLOODING BUT NO CHANGE
TO THE WARNING. DEPARTURES AT SANDY HOOK ABOUT A FOOT LESS THAN
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE STRONGER INFLOW AND LOWER PRESSURE.
WIND ADVY: BEST POTENTIAL WHERE DESCRIBED ...MAY NEED TO ADD ATLANTIC
COUNTY AT THE LAST MINUTE. FEW GUSTS OF 45 KT EXPECTED MID OR LATE
MORNING. AT 5 AM ..MANY REPORTS AROUND 40 KT DE COAST TO MD ATLANTIC
COAST BORDERING DE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES: CUT THE SE TIER AT 630 AM AND CHANGED
TO HEAVIER ICE ACCUMS THE REMAINING ADVISORY AND ALSO THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. STILL SLEET IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.
WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE NEW ADVISORIES FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
BACKSIDE BANDING DEVELOPS ON BACK BENT MID LEVEL FRONT AND STILL
WAA OVER NYS AND NEW ENGLAND DRIVING LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT
SIDE OF THE 700 LOW. THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL MAY ADD TO THE PROBLEMS AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING.
WINTER STORM WARNING EXTENDED TO 18Z WED TO CAPTURE BACKSIDE SNOW.
THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST. NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE WESTERN PORTION OF CARBON/MONROE COUNTY
WITH EXPECTED MXD FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN AT THE START CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING. THEN THE LIFT WEAKENS LATE
MORNING AND IT MAY TURN TO RAIN OR FREEZING THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL AND THEN WE LOOK FOR POTENTIAL
BANDING AND IF THIS OCCURS...ADDITIONAL MDT OR HEAVY SNOWFALL
WOULD OCCUR. DIFFICULT FORECAST AND WE`RE TRYING TO SLICE THIS
VERY CLOSE TO THE MARK. A WORRISOME FORECAST ON PTYPE.
AT 5AM..SE MONROE COUNTY HEAVY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WE ARE
GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN IN ALLAMUCHY (.1 GLAZE) AND
OXFORD NJ HAS SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM FOR SOME INFO AND CONTINUE THE THEME WRITTEN
IN THE AFD FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE SNOWFALL TO OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AS STRONGER OMEGA AND FGEN COME TOGETHER.
MOSTLY BASED ON WHERE WE THINK THE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
SETUP...IN PENNSYLVANIA. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE PRETTY HEFTY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PA ZONES WEST OF PHILADELPHIA DOYLESTOWN AND
ALLENTOWN OVERNIGHT (EXCT SNOW GROWTH AND I THINK POTENTIAL FOR
4+ IF THE MODELED SCENARIO VERIFIES) AS WE SEE THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN BACK TO SNOW. STILL THINK A SWATH OF 8-10 INCHES IS VERY
POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WESTERN
MONROE AND WESTERN CARBON COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG LOW WHICH WILL MEANDER NORTH/EAST OF
THE REGION. BANDS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ACCUMS POSSIBLE MOSTLY N/W. GFS MODEL OVERNIGHT PAINTS SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS LEHIGH VALLEY NORTH AND WEST...BUT THIS WAS TONED DOWN
SOMEWHAT WITH AN EC SOLUTION MORE LIKELY. WE COULD ADD 1 TO 2
INCHES TO SNOW TOTALS WED N/W.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE LOW STARTS TO RELAX ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. CHC
POPS N/W AND SLGT CHC POPS S/E...THESE POPS DECREASE THU NIGHT.
FRI THRU MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SEVERAL DRY DAYS
EXPECTED. MODERATING TEMPS...WITH READINGS 4 OR 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SAT THEN RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...IFR TO POSSIBLY LOW-END MVFR IN RAIN OR DRIZZLE, AS MOST OF
THE STEADIER MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO BETWEEN
20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT AROUND 35 KT AT TIMES IN VICINITY
OF KACY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STEADIER
RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. GUSTS
DIMINISH LATE TODAY.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS WITH BANDS OF RAIN SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND
RAIN CHANGING TO WET SNOW AT KRDG AND KABE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR IN
BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS AT
TIMES.
FRIDAY: VFR...A FEW WIDELY SCT SHOWERS FAR N/W EARLY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF GREAT EGG INLET AND FOR LOWER DELAWARE
BAY. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES NORTH OF GREAT EGG IN TIGHTER PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF DEEPENING SFC LOW AND GALE FORCE NE WINDS. THE
SCA WAS EXTENDED OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY NEED FURTHER EXTENSION
INTO WED FOR ALL WATERS...AS THE SFC LOW IS FCST TO STALL INVOF
LONG ISLAND. WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE OR MORE OFFSHORE RESULTING
IN SMWHT LOWER SEAS WITH THE MORE LIMITED FETCH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON OUR WATERS WITH NO CHANGES. THERE COULD
BE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING-MIDDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A STORM WARNING NOR DO WE THINK
THEY WILL BE PERSISTENT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UPWARDS OF 15
FEET ACROSS A MAJORITY OF OUR WATERS....POSSIBLY BRIEFLY 17 OR 18
FT AT 44009.
WINDS SUBSIDE LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW PARKED EAST BELMAR. SCA
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH END SCA CONDITIONS WITH GALE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. SEAS MOSTLY 5 TO 9 FEET.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS AND GUSTS CONTINUE WITH LOW
PRESSURE STILL TO NORTHEAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM PHILLY NORTH.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH THE BULK
OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PUSHING NORTH. FOUR COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
ADDED OF THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY, LEHIGH NORTHEAST THROUGH SUSSEX AS
THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME LIQUID.
THE HEAVIER RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE ENDING. RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT,
LONGER IN SOME SPOTS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE WET DUE TO THE
RAINS THE REGION SAW THIS PAST SATURDAY. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A
MORE EFFICIENT RUNOFF.
WHERE IT RAINS THE HEAVIEST, TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. THERE COULD BE SOME TOTALS OVER 3 INCHES.
SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE THE FIRST BODIES OF WATER TO
RESPOND. THEY ALREADY HAVE. THOSE AREAS WHICH DRAIN INTO TIDAL
WATERS COULD SEE INCREASED FLOODING (IN THE MINOR CATEGORY) DUE TO
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES.
ON THE LARGER BODIES OF WATER THAT ARE SUPPORTED BY THE MARFC, THERE
ARE ABOUT A DOZEN FORECAST POINTS THAT EXCEED CAUTION/ACTION STAGE,
A FEW OF THEM LASTING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAJORITY OF
THESE POINT ARE IN NJ.
AS FOR GAUGES HITTING FLOOD STAGE, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON BLACKWELLS
MILLS AND PEMBERTON. IF RUNOFF AND RISES CONTINUE AS EXPECTED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON, FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. PEMBERTON
COULD HIT FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND BLACKWELLS MILLS
COULD HIT FLOOD STAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION.
WATER BUILDUP HAS OCCURRED IN ALL OUR TIDAL WATERS DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL TIDE CYCLES, INCLUDING THE DELAWARE AND CHESAPEAKE BAYS AND
THE DELAWARE RIVER. ANOMALIES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND
2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY, AND 2.5 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CITY. IN THE DELAWARE BAY, ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL, AND IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY 1 FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN THESE ANOMALIES
THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN,
AS THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHWEST, WHICH SHOULD EAT AWAY
AT THESE ANOMALIES, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CITY. LOWER ANOMALIES
COMBINED WITH A SMALLER ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION (0.5 TO 1.0 FOOT
LOWER) SHOULD KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT IN THE MINOR RANGE FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTH.
SO...MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED
BACKBAYS WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE, MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED
ALONG THE SHORES OF THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY, AND MINOR TO LOW END
MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE (NORTH OF REEDY
POINT, INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA), AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. AS ALWAYS, ROUGH SURF
AND HEAVY RAIN AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WILL EXACERBATE THE FLOODING
ISSUE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD RAINFALLS FOR TUESDAY IN OUR HISTORICAL DATABASE.
ACY 2.51 2009
PHL 2.13 2009
ILG 2.28 2009
ABE 1.51 1973
TTN 2.25 1978
GED 1.93 2009
RDG 1.16 2009
MPO 1.82 1974
RECORD SNOWFALL FOR WEDNESDAY (LONG SHOT BUT JUST IN CASE)
PHL 4.3 1904
ILG 2.9 2013
ABE 2.7 2013
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ061-062-103>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>015-
019-020-025>027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-
022-025>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
453>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...AMC/DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1143 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WERE THE FOCUS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. CAA CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AND FINALLY DIMINISHES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION
SETTING UP AROUND 925M THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LOW
STRATUS DECK TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASED SKY COVER
DURING THIS TIME TO REFLECT THIS TREND. THE 09.06Z HRRR AND 09.03Z
HOPWRF HINTING ON CLOUD COVER LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY AS WELL. TEMPS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO INCREASE MUCH TODAY WITH
THE STRATUS AND CAA PERSISTING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWERED MAX
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST A DEGREE BUT LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT LOOKED ON TRACK.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
OVERALL...THE MID TO LATE WEEK PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERIOD OF
INCREASED WARMING AND MOISTURE. SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS TONIGHT
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION...WITH
THE GREAT LAKES WAVE SUPPRESSING MOISTURE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
STATES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS ALREADY
SUPPORTING RETURN FLOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW MEXICO.
MODELS SHOW THAT THIS PLUME WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST THEN
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK...AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND...THE RETURN OF MOISTURE AND LOW STRATUS ALONG WITH DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND BRING WITH IT ANOTHER AREA OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN SIMILAR TO EARLY THIS MORNINGS LOWS. CLOUDS
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN WITH TONIGHTS RUN...THE NAM IS
FASTER WITH SATURATION AT LOWER LEVELS WHILE THE GFS INITIALLY WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING DOES NOT SHOW SATURATION...BUT LATER IN
THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY IMPACT MINS AND
ESPECIALLY HIGHS BOTH DAYS. FOR NOW...HAVE TRIMMED FRI HIGHS A BIT
OVER THE AREA BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL TO LOWER
50S WEST/SOUTH. BY SATURDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVER MOST OF
THE SOUTH...UPPER 40S NORTHEAST. STRATUS WILL STILL BE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MIXING MIGHT PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER. DIFFUSE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WEST
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED
WAVE BY DAYS 6 AND 7 WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS STILL DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH THE
GFS FARTHER NORTH AND PHASING THE TWO STREAMS WHILE THE EURO IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ALSO ALLOW FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN A BLENDED APPROACH
UNTIL DETAILS BECOME MORE APPARENT. AFTER A MILD WEEKEND...PASSAGE
OF SYSTEM MONDAY WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...09/18Z
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
A LARGE REGION OF IFR TO MVFR STRATUS BLANKETS MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CLEARING SPOTS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
EASTERN IOWA INTO SRN WISCONSIN. SEVERAL OF THE CLEARING PATCHES
ARE NEAR SITES HOWEVER AS THE STEERING FLOW SWITCHES FROM THE
NORTH TO SOUTHEAST...THE STRATUS WILL SLOW TO STALL FOR A PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAVE SITES ON THE EDGE WITH PERIODS OF REDUCED
CEILINGS AND LESSER PERIODS WITH VFR. THE STATUS SHOULD BECOME
MORE EXPANSIVE AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...DONAVON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
249 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
Surface high pressure continues to build southward today ahead of
the next weak shortwave, which will drop southeastward within the
northwest flow aloft. Meanwhile the edge of the stratus deck has
worked into far northeast KS this morning. The NAM and GFS forecast
has kept this stratus from building further into the forecast area
later this evening. The latest HRRR and RAP have now developed the
stratus further southward towards the I-70 corridor. It appears that
the models are cooling that near saturated layer once daytime mixing
has stopped. Across central KS with the exception of some high
clouds mostly clear skies may allow the boundary layer to cool
enough for fog. Although the soundings seem to indicate relatively
strong winds just above the surface, which may prevent this from
developing. If the stratus develops and or continues in the
northeast areas then the forecast lows will probably be too cool.
Otherwise most areas should drop into the mid to upper 20s.
With regards to precipitation early tomorrow morning. The models
have been trending much drier in the lower levels as the lift
increases in the saturated layers. The lift appears to be fairly
weak and only efficient for drizzle, but with the dry air in place
that drizzle will most likely not reach the ground. Temperatures are
also forecast to gradually rise tomorrow morning reaching above
freezing by late morning or around noon. So freezing precipitation
is looking unlikely at this point. Temperatures will warm as the
winds veer on the back side of the retreating surface high. There is
also an outside chance that if the lift is strong enough to generate
rain then sprinkles will be possible as advertised by the ECMWF and
GEM. This would most likely occur during the afternoon hours when
the wave is forecast to pass over the area. High temperatures
tomorrow should reach the around 40 for most locations.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
The long term forecast remains cloudy and dreary for the most
part with the bulk of the forecast focus on an impending large
storm system which should arrive by late Sunday into early next
week.
For Wednesday night through Saturday, the forecast area will be
entrenched in a very moist near-surface airmass. While there will
be ridging overhead, it appears that this will only help to keep
the surface airmass fairly stagnant through Friday and expect the
persistent low clouds to keep temperatures pretty well in check
with minimal diurnal temperature swings. There will also be
periods of drizzle and fog...particularly overnight and into the
morning hours...with weak but persistent lift within the moist
layer. The good news is that even with the clouds, temperatures
will be above freezing through Saturday night and any light
precipitation will fall as liquid. Also, as the weak progresses,
southerly low level winds will also advect warmer temperatures
into the area to the extent that even without sunshine the area
should be in the upper 50s to around 60 for high temperatures
Friday through Sunday.
Late Saturday into Sunday, a large storm system will be taking
shape over the western CONUS, and is scheduled to bring
precipitation into the local forecast area by late Sunday. While
model guidance is currently in rather strong agreement regarding
the evolution of this system, forecaster confidence remains toward
the low end. The reason for this low confidence lies in the
complex nature of the storm and also the run-to-run model
variability over the past few days. The main energy to impact the
local area will come from the southwestern CONUS, but will also
interact (unsure how much) with a strong northern stream short
wave trough. This interaction will strongly impact the atmospheric
temperature profiles on the north and northwest side of the storm
system and could have a profound impact on the local weather for
Sunday night into Monday night. One thing that is certain is that
this storm system will not lack moisture as it will have a strong
moisture feed ahead of it for several days into the Plains.
Current indications are that this event would be mainly rain for
the local area with some amounts greater than 1", but could mix
with snow or other winter weather types especially across north
central KS late in the event. The wild card is in how cold the
airmass is behind an incoming cold front that will undercut the
system. Lower resolution models can sometimes trend a bit too warm
with undercutting cold airmasses in the long range, but lack of
snow cover to the north supports a slightly warmer airmass. If
it should trend colder there would be more of a chance for winter
precip locally.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
The progression of the MVFR ceilings have stopped just northeast
of TOP/FOE. The tafs appear to stay VFR through the taf period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1144 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BY LATE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW DENSE THESE CLOUDS
WILL BE BUT NAM, GFS, AND RAP ALL INDICATE A COOLING TREND IN THE
925MB TO 850MB LEVEL FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS
COOLING TREND, MORE CLOUDS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND AN
EASTERLY WIND WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 STILL LOOKS REASONABLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL
BE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EXACTLY HOW THE GRADIENT WILL END UP BETWEEN
THESE TWO EXTREMES IS UNCLEAR.
ISENTROPIC AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS IN THE 900MB TO 800MB LEVEL. STRATUS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY
SOME AREAS OF FOG APPEARING LIKELY AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE
OVERNIGHT. DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER WILL BE IN THE 2000 TO 3000
FT AGL RANGE DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOUNDING YOU EXAMINE. GIVEN
THE DEPTH OF THIS LAYER AM TRENDING AWAY FROM INTRODUCING DRIZZLE
LATE TONIGHT BUT IF THE NAM ENDS UP BEING MORE CORRECT THEN SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 32 DEGREES BUT GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THE LOWS MAY OCCUR EARLY
WITH TEMPERATURES THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW
DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
THE PERIOD BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE A TRUE CHALLENGE
WITH RESPECT TO SKY COVER AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES BOTH IN THE
DAYTIME FOR HIGHS AS WELL AS LOWS OVERNIGHT. RELATIVELY MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MARKED BY DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S COULD CONTRIBUTE TO EVENING/NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
ADDITION TO ALREADY EXPECTED STRATUS. STRATUS THAT DOES ERODE
DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE ABLE RAPIDLY REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
DIURNALLY. MODELS SOUNDINGS GENERALLY LIMIT THE THICKNESS TO
SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2000 FT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE
DESPITE MODEL QPF OUTPUT. THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING HOW FAR WEST THE STRATUS IMPACTS THE FORECAST AREA
EACH DAY AND IT`S EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD OVERCAST
CONDITIONS, WHILE THE WESTERN MOST COUNTIES, GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WILL EXPERIENCE THE MOST HOURS OF INSOLATION AND CLEAR
SKIES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
UNLESS THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS FROM THE
CURRENT AND RECENT RUNS, SUNDAY NIGHT (OR AROUND THAT SYNOPTIC
TIMESCALE/TIMEFRAME) LOOKS WET WITH RAIN POTENTIAL OR EVEN SNOW
WITH AS UPPER DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EASTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT, SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE AROUND
8-10KT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BY 11-13Z ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS WITH LIGHT
FREEZING FOG AND LOW CIGS. LOW CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
BY 16-18Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 49 33 47 41 / 0 10 10 10
GCK 52 31 50 37 / 0 10 0 0
EHA 59 34 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 56 36 56 44 / 0 10 0 0
HYS 42 29 43 38 / 0 10 10 10
P28 49 31 46 41 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF DELMARVA WILL STALL OVER LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW THEN PUSHES OUT TO SEA INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A FEW DEVELOPMENTS THIS MORNING TO TAKE NOTE OF. PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW BEING USHERED IN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
JUST OFFSHORE IS KEEPING PLENTY OF COLDER AIR IN PLACE. INITIAL
THOUGHT HAD BEEN OF THE SFC TEMPS WARMING IN THE AREA TO AT LEAST
MID 30S. BUT WITH TEMPS TO THE NORTH STILL SHOWING LOWER 30S...AND
WITH MULTIPLE MESO REPORTS SHOWING AROUND FREEZING IN OUR AREA...THE
LATEST THINKING IS THAT UNTIL THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NW LATE
TODAY...WE SHALL SEE PERSISTING FREEZING SFC TEMPS. ADD IN THE ON
GOING PCPN AND FREEZING RAIN REMAINS A THREAT OVER CENTRAL
MD...AND BLUE RIDGE AREAS AND TO THE WEST. 12Z RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOWING PLENTY OF DRYING ALOFT...SO VERY WELL COULD END UP WITH
JUST LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. THUS...HAVE REISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUM...GENERALLY ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT
AMTS...COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS...ON TOP OF THE
CURRENTLY REPORTED ICE TOTALS WE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING...WITH
ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH. THIS ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 23Z.
THE QUESTION BECOMES THEN FOR TONIGHT THE CHC FOR PCPN AND THE
FORM OF PCPN. GENERAL THOUGHT IS WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO A MORE
DEFINED NW FLOW...SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO UPSLOPING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND THE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE THREAT DIMINISHING. SO FOR
NOW HAVE NOT CONTINUED THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE PCPN CHANGEOVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BLUSTERY CONDS WL CONT TNGT AND WED AS THE LOW TRACKS OVR LONG
ISLAND...AND THEN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A PROLONGED PD OF UNSETTLED
WX TO THE NERN U.S. TYPICALLY STRONG LOWS THAT FAR TO OUR N ARE
NOT BIG PCPN PRODUCERS IN THE MID ATLC..BUT WL KEEP CHC POPS IN
THE FCST. A STREAMER ALONG THE BAY SOMETIMES OCCURS IN THIS
SITUATION. THE BIGGER STORY WL BE THE WINDY CONDS THAT WL CONT
BOTH TNGT AND WED COURTESY OF THE PRES GRAD BTWN THE NERN LOW AND
HIGH PRES OVR THE MS VLLY.
LOWS TNGT IN THE 30S. HIGHS WED IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE WILL STILL FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD
SHUNT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/CLOUDS/PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY.
ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAKER FRIDAY.
THURSDAY...STRONG NWLY FLOW CONTINUES...EXPECT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30
MPH RANGE (HIGHER ON RIDGES)...5 TO 10 MPH LESS THAN WEDNESDAY.
DOWNSLOPING FLOW SO TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPR 30S TO LOW
40S. THE REACH OF THE UPPER LOW STILL GETS SOUTH OF THE
MASON-DIXON...SO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF HWY 50/I-66. UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES...BUT THE
INVERSION BECOMES MORE SHALLOW...AN INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...DRIER WITH LESS PRESSURE GRADIENT. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID
40S...UPSLOPE SNOW PROBABLY CUTS OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS GUST
TO AROUND 20 MPH.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
IS CONCERNED.. HIGH PRESSURE OVER LABRADOR WILL BLOCK THE COASTAL
LOW...CAUSING IT TO STALL NEAR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN BREEZY
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...MEANING THAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEEL LIKE
BLUSTERY MID-ATLANTIC WINTER DAYS.
RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CLEAR SKIES TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS WELL AS ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN AND TEMPS TO MODERATE.
MODELS DIVERGE ON AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THE GFS MIGRATING OUR HIGH SOUTHWARD...BRINGING A
MID-LATITUDE LOW TO OUR NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THE EURO FAVORS THE HIGH MIGRATING SOUTHWARD AND THE
FORMATION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EITHER
SOLUTION HAVING MUCH IMPACT BEFORE TUESDAY NIGHT ASIDE FROM AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WITH WESTERN
SITES EVEN AT VFR NOW. IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO BE SLOW TODAY...WITH
ALL SITES BECOMING VFR BY THIS EVENING. LOW-MOD CONFIDENCE AT THE
MOMENT ON THE IMPROVEMENT TIME. ANY PCPN AT THE TERMINALS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DURING THIS TIME UNTIL TONIGHT...WITH
PSBL LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN THIS EVENING.
N WINDS BECOME NW THIS AFTN...WITH OCNL GUSTS MIXING IN DURING THE
AFTN HOURS.
VFR CONDS XPCTD FOR THE EVE PUSH AND THEN OVR AND WED. GUSTY N
WINDS XPCTD TO CONT THRU WED.
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE ROTATING JUST EAST OF THE AREA...OFF
THE MID-ATLC NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. GUSTY WINDS
FROM TUE NIGHT INTO WED. A FEW GUSTS WILL REMAIN INTO THU BUT MAINLY
TAPERING OFF AFTER A WINDY WED.
STRONG NW WINDS AND VFR PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GUSTS TO 30 KT
ON THURSDAY AND AROUND 20 KT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS REACHING SCA LVLS TODAY THRU WED. GALE GUSTS MAY OCCUR ON WED.
WHILE AN OFFSHORE UPPER LOW ROTATES JUST OFF THE MID-ATLC
COAST...THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AND CAUSE ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH-END SCA WED NIGHT. SOME BREEZES STILL OCCURRING ON THU
AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF THE COAST NIGHT.
STRONG NW WIND CONTINUE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WATERS. FOR NOW...EXPECT
30 KT GUSTS...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR BRIEF GALES CONTINUING FROM
WEDNESDAY. SCA ANTICIPATED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ004.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ501-
505-507-508.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...BAJ/CEB
AVIATION...BAJ/SEARS
MARINE...BAJ/SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1124 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF DELMARVA WILL PUSH NORTH
TODAY...REACHING LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW DEVELOPMENTS THIS MORNING TO TAKE NOTE OF. PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW BEING USHERED IN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
JUST OFFSHORE IS KEEPING PLENTY OF COLDER AIR IN PLACE. INITIAL
THOUGHT HAD BEEN OF THE SFC TEMPS WARMING IN THE AREA TO AT LEAST
MID 30S. BUT WITH TEMPS TO THE NORTH STILL SHOWING LOWER 30S...AND
WITH MULTIPLE MESO REPORTS SHOWING AROUND FREEZING IN OUR AREA...THE
LATEST THINKING IS THAT UNTIL THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NW LATE
TODAY...WE SHALL SEE PERSISTING FREEZING SFC TEMPS. ADD IN THE ON
GOING PCPN AND FREEZING RAIN REMAINS A THREAT OVER CENTRAL
MD...AND BLUE RIDGE AREAS AND TO THE WEST. 12Z RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOWING PLENTY OF DRYING ALOFT...SO VERY WELL COULD END UP WITH
JUST LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. THUS...HAVE REISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUM...GENERALLY ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT
AMTS...COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS...ON TOP OF THE
CURRENTLY REPORTED ICE TOTALS WE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING...WITH
ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH. THIS ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 23Z.
THE QUESTION BECOMES THEN FOR TONIGHT THE CHC FOR PCPN AND THE
FORM OF PCPN. GENERAL THOUGHT IS WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO A MORE
DEFINED NW FLOW...SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO UPSLOPING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND THE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE THREAT DIMINISHING. SO FOR
NOW HAVE NOT CONTINUED THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE PCPN CHANGEOVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BLUSTERY CONDS WL CONT TNGT AND WED AS THE LOW TRACKS OVR LONG
ISLAND...AND THEN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A PROLONGED PD OF UNSETTLED
WX TO THE NERN U.S. TYPICALLY STRONG LOWS THAT FAR TO OUR N ARE
NOT BIG PCPN PRODUCERS IN THE MID ATLC..BUT WL KEEP CHC POPS IN
THE FCST. A STREAMER ALONG THE BAY SOMETIMES OCCURS IN THIS
SITUATION. THE BIGGER STORY WL BE THE WINDY CONDS THAT WL CONT
BOTH TNGT AND WED COURTESY OF THE PRES GRAD BTWN THE NERN LOW AND
HIGH PRES OVR THE MS VLLY.
LOWS TNGT IN THE 30S. HIGHS WED IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIKE THE CONSUMMATE EXAMPLE OF THE ANGULAR MOMENTUM LOST W/ A
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW
WILL EXPAND BUT LOSE MUCH OF ITS POTENCY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
AFTER THE REINFORCING VORT MAX THAT IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING THE
SYSTEM PHASES OUT LATER TODAY...THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE MUCH ELSE
TO CONTINUE ITS INTENSE PRESENCE. THE LACK OF WAA/CAA WILL TAKE ITS
TOLL ON THE SYSTEM...RISING HEIGHTS IN THE UPPER LOW AND SCATTERING
OUT THE PRECIP AS IT HOVERS OVER NEW ENGLAND FROM LATE WED INTO THU.
THE OFFSHORE PRECIP WILL MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM LAND...W/ THE
ONSHORE PRECIP WEAKLY FORCED AND LIMITED TO THE LEFTOVER CIRCULAR
OUTER BANDS - SURROUNDING THE LOW.
MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL STAY NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE...OUTSIDE
OF A FEW BATCHES OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE LATE
STAGES OF THE LOW`S INFLUENCE. SOME PROLONGED ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE APLCN SPINE...
W/ MUCH OF THE REST OF THE MID ATLC DRYING OUT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LARGE AND WEAKENING UPPER LOW LATE IN THE WEEK WILL KEEP OUR WX
MODERATED - NOT MUCH OF A WARM-UP EXPECTED. AVG HIGHS ARE IN THE
U40S FOR OUR REGION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE COMING WEEKEND TO APPROACH THESE VALUES...W/ A SLOW/STEADY CLIMB
UNTIL THEN.
SINCE LAST NIGHT...THE EURO INTO THE END OF THE WEEK HAS ACTUALLY
MOVED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...THEN THEY DIVERGE AGAIN INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LOSES ITS
EARLIER POTENCY...THE OUTER PRECIP BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND
DISSIPATE AS THEY ROTATE AROUND NEW ENGLAND. PLENTY OF LIGHT PRECIP
WILL SWING ABOUT THE CENTER OF THE LOW...BUT LITTLE IF ANY WILL MAKE
IT SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THE GFS TAKES THAT ENTIRE SYSTEM
ON A GOOD NE JOG INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE EURO KEEPS THE FEATURE
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...W/ ANOTHER MINOR DEEPENING PERIOD TO TIME -
JUST OFF THE MID ATLC. KEEPING THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE W/ A BLEND
OF THE LONG RANGE DEPICTIONS...MAINLY A SLOW WARM-UP AND DRY FOR THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WITH WESTERN
SITES EVEN AT VFR NOW. IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO BE SLOW TODAY...WITH
ALL SITES BECOMING VFR BY THIS EVENING. LOW-MOD CONFIDENCE AT THE
MOMENT ON THE IMPROVEMENT TIME. ANY PCPN AT THE TERMINALS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DURING THIS TIME UNTIL TONIGHT...WITH
PSBL LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN THIS EVENING.
N WINDS BECOME NW THIS AFTN...WITH OCNL GUSTS MIXING IN DURING THE
AFTN HOURS.
VFR CONDS XPCTD FOR THE EVE PUSH AND THEN OVR AND WED. GUSTY N
WINDS XPCTD TO CONT THRU WED.
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE ROTATING JUST EAST OF THE AREA...OFF
THE MID-ATLC NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. GUSTY WINDS
FROM TUE NIGHT INTO WED. A FEW GUSTS WILL REMAIN INTO THU BUT MAINLY
TAPERING OFF AFTER A WINDY WED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS REACHING SCA LVLS TODAY THRU WED. GALE GUSTS MAY OCCUR ON WED.
WHILE AN OFFSHORE UPPER LOW ROTATES JUST OFF THE MID-ATLC
COAST...THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AND CAUSE ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH-END SCA WED NIGHT. SOME BREEZES STILL OCCURRING ON THU
AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF THE COAST NIGHT.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ003>005-502-503-505.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ025>031-040-501-505-507-508.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
404 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
STRETCING S FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE SE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPR RDG
IN THE PLAINS. SFC HI PRES UNDER THE THE UPR RDG STRETCHES FM NW
ONTARIO INTO MN. 12HR 00Z-12Z H5 HGT RISES IN THE 100-150M RANGE FM
YPL TO INL AND MPX INDICATE THE UPR RDG/SFC HI ARE BUILDING INTO THE
WRN GREAT LKS...BUT PLENTY OF LO CLDS/A FEW FLURRIES LINGER OVER THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTN WITH LLVL MSTR TRAPPED IN NEAR SFC NNE FLOW OFF
LK SUP UNDER INVRN BASE THAT HAD LOWERED TO NEAR H95 BY 12Z AT INL
UNDER THE STRONG DNVA/SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING UPR
RDG. THE AIR TO THE N OF LK SUP IS QUITE A BIT DRIER PER THE 12Z YPL
RAOB...WITH SFC DEWPTS NEAR OR BLO 0F AT MOST PLACES IN ONTARIO.
SKIES ARE MOCLR THERE...AND ASSOCIATED DRYING IS TENDING TO BREAK UP
THE LO CLDS OVER THE NRN AND ERN PORTION OF LK SUP. BUT THIS CLRG IS
HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH PROGRESS TOWARD UPR MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON LO CLD TRENDS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPS.
TNGT...AS UPR RDG CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE E...SFC HI PRES
RDG IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY E AS WELL...REACHING A LINE FM NEAR
JAMES BAY INTO NW WI BY 12Z WED. LOWERING INVRN BASE UNDER THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD END ANY LINGERING FLURRIES...BUT MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TO BE MORE PESSIMISTIC IN REGARDS TO CLEARING THE LO
CLDS...WHICH SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH RATHER SLOW OBSVD CLRG TREND.
BEST CHC FOR SOME CLRG WL BE OVER THE ERN CWA AS THE SLOWLY VEERING
LLVL FLOW TOWARD THE E WL DOWNSLOPE OFF ONTARIO AND LIMIT THE OVER
WATER TRAJECTORY. ONE OTHER AREA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME CLRG IS
OVER THE FAR W...WHERE FLOW SHIFTING TOWARD THE SSE WL DOWNSLOPE AS
WELL. BUT THE SFC-H925 WINDS ARE FCST TO BE ONLY 5-10 KTS...SO THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MIGHT NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP THE LO
CLDS SIGNIFICANTLY. WL TEND TOWARD THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR E...WITH LINGERING CLDS HOLDING UP THE TEMPS ELSEWHERE.
WED...SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS IS PROGGED TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY E THRU
THE DAY...REMAINING OVER CENTRAL UPR MI THRU THE DAY. WITH CONTINUED
SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT LINGERING LO CLDS TO SLOWLY BREAK UP. THESE CLDS
SHOULD BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
CWA...BUT EVEN HERE THE CLDS SHOULD BREAK UP AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVRN
SINKS TO THE NEAR THE SFC AS SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS. TENDED TOWARD THE
LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN HI STABILITY SHOWN ON FCST
SDNGS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AND DRY AIR WILL
LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SAME TIME...STRONG UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS BECOMING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY CLEAR...DRY AND
VERY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 40 DEGREES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 10 TO 12C.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT
HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY FALL ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL
MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO OVERLY ABUNDANT OR DEEP...AS A LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...HELPING TO FOCUS
THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW INLAND
AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD
NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON ROADWAYS WITH THE WARMER DAYTIME
HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...WENT WITH THE VERY LIGHT RAIN
MENTION...WITH DROPLETS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SMALL AS MOISTURE IS
NOT DEEP ENOUGH FOR RAINFALL TO AMOUNT TO MUCH. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SOUTHERN LOW THROUGH THE REMAINING
EXTENDED WITH THE 06Z GFS BRINGING THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST REACHING
SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MI BY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE LOW
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...AROUND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AT THE SAME TIME. THE
LATEST...12Z MODEL RUN OF THE GFS/EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. BOTH MODELS ALSO AGREE WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL ONCE AGAIN.
THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
COOLER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND
-8 TO -10C MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOP...THIS WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
A DIFFICULT LO CLD FCST IS ON TAP FOR THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LLVL
MSTR IN UPSLOPE NNE FLOW OFF LK SUP AND UNDER LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVRN ASSOCIATED WITH BLDG UPR RDG IS CAUSING THE LO CLDS OBSVD
TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME NEAR SFC DRYING WL CAUSE THE CIGS TO RUN
GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...THE LO CLDS SHOULD PERSIST THRU THIS
EVNG AT ALL 3 SITES. THE BEST CHC FOR SOME CLRG AND A RETURN TO VFR
WX WL BE AT SAW AND IWD LATER TNGT AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS SLOWLY TO
A MORE ESE DIRECTION THAT WL DOWNSLOPE INTO IWD AND LIMIT MOISTENING
OFF LK SUP INTO SAW. A MORE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND SOME
MOISTENING OFF LK SUP AT CMX WL LIKELY CAUSE THE MVFR CIGS TO LINGER
THERE THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF TO UNDER 15KT. THESE
LIGHTER WINDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS POINT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
348 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
STRETCING S FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE SE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPR RDG
IN THE PLAINS. SFC HI PRES UNDER THE THE UPR RDG STRETCHES FM NW
ONTARIO INTO MN. 12HR 00Z-12Z H5 HGT RISES IN THE 100-150M RANGE FM
YPL TO INL AND MPX INDICATE THE UPR RDG/SFC HI ARE BUILDING INTO THE
WRN GREAT LKS...BUT PLENTY OF LO CLDS/A FEW FLURRIES LINGER OVER THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTN WITH LLVL MSTR TRAPPED IN NEAR SFC NNE FLOW OFF
LK SUP UNDER INVRN BASE THAT HAD LOWERED TO NEAR H95 BY 12Z AT INL
UNDER THE STRONG DNVA/SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING UPR
RDG. THE AIR TO THE N OF LK SUP IS QUITE A BIT DRIER PER THE 12Z YPL
RAOB...WITH SFC DEWPTS NEAR OR BLO 0F AT MOST PLACES IN ONTARIO.
SKIES ARE MOCLR THERE...AND ASSOCIATED DRYING IS TENDING TO BREAK UP
THE LO CLDS OVER THE NRN AND ERN PORTION OF LK SUP. BUT THIS CLRG IS
HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH PROGRESS TOWARD UPR MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON LO CLD TRENDS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPS.
TNGT...AS UPR RDG CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE E...SFC HI PRES
RDG IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY E AS WELL...REACHING A LINE FM NEAR
JAMES BAY INTO NW WI BY 12Z WED. LOWERING INVRN BASE UNDER THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD END ANY LINGERING FLURRIES...BUT MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TO BE MORE PESSIMISTIC IN REGARDS TO CLEARING THE LO
CLDS...WHICH SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH RATHER SLOW OBSVD CLRG TREND.
BEST CHC FOR SOME CLRG WL BE OVER THE ERN CWA AS THE SLOWLY VEERING
LLVL FLOW TOWARD THE E WL DOWNSLOPE OFF ONTARIO AND LIMIT THE OVER
WATER TRAJECTORY. ONE OTHER AREA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME CLRG IS
OVER THE FAR W...WHERE FLOW SHIFTING TOWARD THE SSE WL DOWNSLOPE AS
WELL. BUT THE SFC-H925 WINDS ARE FCST TO BE ONLY 5-10 KTS...SO THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MIGHT NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP THE LO
CLDS SIGNIFICANTLY. WL TEND TOWARD THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR E...WITH LINGERING CLDS HOLDING UP THE TEMPS ELSEWHERE.
WED...SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS IS PROGGED TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY E THRU
THE DAY...REMAINING OVER CENTRAL UPR MI THRU THE DAY. WITH CONTINUED
SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT LINGERING LO CLDS TO SLOWLY BREAK UP. THESE CLDS
SHOULD BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
CWA...BUT EVEN HERE THE CLDS SHOULD BREAK UP AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVRN
SINKS TO THE NEAR THE SFC AS SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS. TENDED TOWARD THE
LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN HI STABILITY SHOWN ON FCST
SDNGS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA THROUGH SAT AS A SFC RIDGE
SITS OVER THE CWA BEFORE MOVING SE FRI INTO SAT. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
SUN. WED NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE
ZERO LOWS INLAND AS THE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AIRMASS IS STILL TO THE W. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE
FROM AOB 0C AT 12Z WED TO AOA 10C BY 00Z SAT...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS
STICKING AROUND THROUGH SAT. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED ON SAT WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRANSITION INTO A MORE
ACTIVE PATTER LATE IN THE WEEKEND...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME SUN INTO MON...AND PTYPE WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO SNOW AT LEAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MON. LOTS WILL
DEPEND ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH MODELS VARY
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM RUN TO RUN. STILL NOT BUYING GREATER QPF/LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MODELS SHOW ON SUN/SUN NIGHT AS MODELS LIKELY
ARE OVERDOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THEY OFTEN DO WHEN MODELING
SNOWPACK MELTING. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN FOR SAT
NIGHT-MON SINCE SFC TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR FREEZING RAIN IF THE
RAIN/CLOUDS ARE AS THICK AS MODELS SUGGEST...AND IF THERE IS LESS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TEMPS WILL BE COLDER BUT PRECIPITATION PROBABLY
WILL NOT OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
A DIFFICULT LO CLD FCST IS ON TAP FOR THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LLVL
MSTR IN UPSLOPE NNE FLOW OFF LK SUP AND UNDER LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVRN ASSOCIATED WITH BLDG UPR RDG IS CAUSING THE LO CLDS OBSVD
TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME NEAR SFC DRYING WL CAUSE THE CIGS TO RUN
GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...THE LO CLDS SHOULD PERSIST THRU THIS
EVNG AT ALL 3 SITES. THE BEST CHC FOR SOME CLRG AND A RETURN TO VFR
WX WL BE AT SAW AND IWD LATER TNGT AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS SLOWLY TO
A MORE ESE DIRECTION THAT WL DOWNSLOPE INTO IWD AND LIMIT MOISTENING
OFF LK SUP INTO SAW. A MORE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND SOME
MOISTENING OFF LK SUP AT CMX WL LIKELY CAUSE THE MVFR CIGS TO LINGER
THERE THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
BEHIND A LOW PRES TROF...N TO NW WINDS RAMPED UP TO 20-30KT
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS NOTED OVER CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO HUDSON
BAY APPROACHES TODAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E TO UNDER 20KT
BY EVENING. WITH THE HIGH PRES RIDGE THEN SETTLING OVER THE UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT THRU WED...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO UNDER 15KT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THU AND FRI...BUT WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT.
THESE LIGHTER WINDS MAY LINGER ON INTO SAT AS WELL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1235 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON
BAY S THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH TROF AXIS NOW E OF UPPER MI...
HEIGHTS ARE BEGINNING TO RISE AS BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
EXPANDS EASTWARD. AT THE SFC...TROF IS ALSO NOW S AND E OF UPPER MI
WITH BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHERING IN SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR INTO THE
AREA...MOST NOTICEABLE BLO 850MB. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
PER UPSTREAM 00Z KINL/CWPL SOUNDINGS...LOW CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE UPPER LAKES WITH CLEARING ONLY NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF NRN
AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OFF ONTARIO AND MN
NSHORE. TEMPS IN THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER HAVE BEEN FALLING...BUT
APPARENTLY AREN`T COLD ENOUGH YET TO ENSURE COMPLETE ICE NUCLEATION
AS -SN HAS BEEN MIXED AT TIMES WITH -FZDZ DURING THE NIGHT IN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST RUC/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER NEARING -10C...SO ANY LINGERING -FZDZ
SHOULD BE ENDING IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. A FEW HRS AGO...ONLY ONE
HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW WAS NOTED OFF SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
MARQUETTE AREA AND ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. CURRENTLY...RADAR DOES NOT
SHOW ANYTHING OTHER THAN VERY LIGHT PCPN STREAMERS.
LINGERING -SHSN/FLURRIES WILL WIND DOWN TODAY AS INVERSION FALLS TO
2-3KFT AHEAD OF A 1035-1040MB HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTING SE TOWARD THE
UPPER LAKES. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED OVER THE
REGION UNDER INVERSION...OPTED TOWARD A MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD
FCST TODAY. CLOUDS WILL BE MOST RELUCTANT TO BREAK IN THE AREAS
WHERE N TO NE FLOW IS UPSLOPING. BREAKING OF THE CLOUDS MAY BE MORE
LIKELY OVER THE FAR E LATER IN THE DAY AS VEERING WINDS INCREASE
DOWNSLOPING OFF ONTARIO. MAY SEE A SIMILAR SITUATION NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR OVER THE FAR W LATE AS DOWNSLOPING BEGINS WITH WINDS
VEERING MORE EASTERLY. CLOUDS/SHALLOW CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY.
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT. WHILE FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...
THERE IS HUGE BUST POTENTIAL WITH TEMPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD
COVER. BEST BET FOR CLEARING IS IN TWO AREAS. CLEARING SHOULD EXPAND
WESTWARD THRU ERN UPPER MI FROM THE DOWNSLOPING OFF ONTARIO UNDER E
TO NE FLOW...AND CLEARING WILL ALSO EXPAND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
WRN UPPER MI AS WINDS BECOME DOWNSLOPING E TO SE. NCNTRL UPPER MI
INTO THE KEWEENAW WILL LIKELY SEE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT AS WINDS MAINTAIN SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT ALL NIGHT. FOR
NOW...INDICATED MIN TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHERE AT LEAST SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED. IF SKIES CLEAR...TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS WILL
FALL TO NEAR OR PERHAPS BLO 0F. IF CLOUDS HOLD...TEENS WILL LIKELY
BE THE RULE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA THROUGH SAT AS A SFC RIDGE
SITS OVER THE CWA BEFORE MOVING SE FRI INTO SAT. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
SUN. WED NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE
ZERO LOWS INLAND AS THE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AIRMASS IS STILL TO THE W. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE
FROM AOB 0C AT 12Z WED TO AOA 10C BY 00Z SAT...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS
STICKING AROUND THROUGH SAT. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED ON SAT WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRANSITION INTO A MORE
ACTIVE PATTER LATE IN THE WEEKEND...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME SUN INTO MON...AND PTYPE WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO SNOW AT LEAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MON. LOTS WILL
DEPEND ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH MODELS VARY
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM RUN TO RUN. STILL NOT BUYING GREATER QPF/LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MODELS SHOW ON SUN/SUN NIGHT AS MODELS LIKELY
ARE OVERDOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THEY OFTEN DO WHEN MODELING
SNOWPACK MELTING. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN FOR SAT
NIGHT-MON SINCE SFC TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR FREEZING RAIN IF THE
RAIN/CLOUDS ARE AS THICK AS MODELS SUGGEST...AND IF THERE IS LESS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TEMPS WILL BE COLDER BUT PRECIPITATION PROBABLY
WILL NOT OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
A DIFFICULT LO CLD FCST IS ON TAP FOR THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LLVL
MSTR IN UPSLOPE NNE FLOW OFF LK SUP AND UNDER LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVRN ASSOCIATED WITH BLDG UPR RDG IS CAUSING THE LO CLDS OBSVD
TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME NEAR SFC DRYING WL CAUSE THE CIGS TO RUN
GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...THE LO CLDS SHOULD PERSIST THRU THIS
EVNG AT ALL 3 SITES. THE BEST CHC FOR SOME CLRG AND A RETURN TO VFR
WX WL BE AT SAW AND IWD LATER TNGT AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS SLOWLY TO
A MORE ESE DIRECTION THAT WL DOWNSLOPE INTO IWD AND LIMIT MOISTENING
OFF LK SUP INTO SAW. A MORE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND SOME
MOISTENING OFF LK SUP AT CMX WL LIKELY CAUSE THE MVFR CIGS TO LINGER
THERE THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
BEHIND A LOW PRES TROF...N TO NW WINDS RAMPED UP TO 20-30KT
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS NOTED OVER CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO HUDSON
BAY APPROACHES TODAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E TO UNDER 20KT
BY EVENING. WITH THE HIGH PRES RIDGE THEN SETTLING OVER THE UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT THRU WED...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO UNDER 15KT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THU AND FRI...BUT WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT.
THESE LIGHTER WINDS MAY LINGER ON INTO SAT AS WELL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1040 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.UPDATE...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS TODAY.
SOME CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPS TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY TEMPS FOR LATE THIS MORNING. /27/
&&
.AVIATION...MORNING FOG IS SLOWLY CLEARING AND MOST SITS HAVE
RESUMED VFR CONDITIONS. KGLH/KGWO ARE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND THESE
WILL HANG ONTO MVFR CONDITIONS TIL ALMOST 17-18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND MAY
BRING SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE NORTH AFTER 20Z. THIS WILL
REINFORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10KTS. /28/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...FOCUS OF THIS SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR LATER TODAY. FROM THIS...THE MAIN
FORECAST ELEMENTS WILL BE ON TEMPS AND CLOUDS.
THE NOTICEABLE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE CWA. PRIOR TO THAT...SFC WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NW...BUT FULL SUNSHINE AND SOMEWHAT OF A FLAT LOW
LEVEL THERMAL AXIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER WARMUP THAN PREV
EXPECTED. DUE TO THIS...AREAS SOUTH OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR SHOULD
PEAK BETWEEN 60-66 DEGREES AND I HAVE USED VALUES THAT WERE ON THE
UPPER END OF THE GUID ENVELOP. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY
82...THIS IS MORE TRICKY AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE COOLER AIR LOOKS
TO ARRIVE HERE IN TIME TO LIMIT WARMING A BIT. A BLEND OF THE HI-RES
AND RAP MODELS WERE USED HERE AND HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH 53-58. AS FOR
CLOUDS...PREV EXPECTATIONS WERE FOR CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST NAM/RAP INDICATE THAT FRONTAL LIFT ALONG WITH STRONG CAA WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST A BKN DECK NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR TONIGHT...THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVER...BUT THEN BEGIN TO GET REPLACED BY INCREASING/THICKENING HIGH
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY FOR MIDDAY WED AND INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVE. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE NOT CLEAR CUT AS THE GFS MOS IS COOLER AND OTHER GUID IS
A BIT WARMER. I LIKE A BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER GUID DUE
TO SFC WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE N HALF...BUT IF THAT OCCURS IT WILL BE BRIEF. HIGHS WED
WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S N TO MID 50S
S. A COMBO OF CAA AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK. IF THE
HIGH CLOUDS BECOME THICK ENOUGH...READINGS COULD FALL SHORT OF
EXPECTED VALUES.
WED NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT THIS WEEK...BUT I WILL NOT GET
TOO AGGRESSIVE AND MUCH OF THE COOLING WILL DEPEND ON IF THE HIGH
CLOUDS EXIT OR THIN ENOUGH. ALL THE AVAILABLE GUID IS CLOSE WITH
UPPER 20S N TO LOWER 30S S AS THE RANGE. THU WILL BE A TAD WARMER AS
SOME MODIFICATION OCCURS THANKS TO A BIT MORE SUN WITH A MIX OF
CLOUDS AS WELL. /CME/
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
GLOBAL MODELS ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT CONSIDERING THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE. A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW A RIDGE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL...BUT THEN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS AS SURFACE PRESSURES
FALL AND RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
EMPHASIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO DEVELOP WITH HANDLING OF
THIS TROUGH AND HOW MUCH PHASING TAKES PLACE - THE ECWMF IS MORE
DISTINCT/SEPARATE AND THEREFORE A LITTLE SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST WITH
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ARKLAMISS WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
INDICATE MORE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
MAY SUPPORT MORE OF A CLOSED OFF SOLUTION SUCH PER THE ECWMF...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED AS THE PRECEDING HIGH DOES NOT
ALLOW FOR MUCH OF A WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 63 33 51 33 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 63 32 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 64 33 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 66 35 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 64 35 52 34 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 56 32 48 31 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 56 31 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1112 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2014
Vort max which dropped across the region overnight is now working
its way into the TN valley, with associated cold front currently
dropping into far s counties of our CWA. Early morning 11-3.9 low
cloud imagery indicates an extensive area of ST and SC in the wake
of the front, with this low cloud deck extending into the upper
Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes with only a few minor
breaks noted.
While can`t rule out a bit of sunshine, believe clouds will dominate
much of the region today due to the extensive low level moisture
trapped beneath a fairly stout inversion, as suggested by 925mb RH
progs from both the RUC and NAM. Today will certainly be cooler
than yesterday, and I`ve attempted to try to limit diurnal swing
as clouds should definitely inhibit a big daytime temp swing.
However, if a solid cloud deck holds throughout the day going max
temps may still be a bit too warm.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2014
(Tonight-Thursday)
Chilly and tranquil weather should continue during this time
frame, and the primary forecast concern is how short-term low
cloud trends will evolve heading into midweek. Given forecast
inversion and north-northeast low level flow forecast across the
area as surface ridge works into the upper Mississippi Valley,
believe low clouds will hold over the region tonight and will
likely have a tendency to hang tough through Wednesday, with some
additional mid level cloudiness spilling into the area as strong
but moisture-starved shortwave zips down the back side of the
large upper level low winding up over the east coast.
Temperatures should moderate a bit by Thursday with a slightly
warmer airmass and a bit more sunshine.
(Friday-Monday)
Medium range solutions take eastern U.S. low up the eastern
seaboard heading into the end of the week, allowing upper level
ridge to work into the central CONUS. Resultant warming of the
AMS over the mid-Mississippi Valley should provide a strong
rebound in temps across the FA, with highs in the 50s by the end
of the week.
UA pattern over the CONUS becomes even more progressive by late in
the period, allowing aforementioned ridge to push east and deep UA
trof over the western U.S. to sweep into the Plains. This could
mean some precip in our CWA by Sunday, with better chances by the
start of the new work week. This system should be a rain-maker for
our area due to the relatively mild AMS.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1053 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2014
Although there may be a few thin spots or holes in the shallow
low level stratus cloud deck, it appears that the low level cloud
ceiling will continue through the forecast period. The cloud
ceiling will rise to around 3000 feet at some of the taf sites
this afternoon, but then likely drop down to 1000-1500 feet late
tonight with patchy light fog possible as the n-nwly surface wind
becomes light nely tonight.
Specifics for KSTL: Cloud ceiling height should hover around
2500-3000 feet this afternoon, then likely drop to around
1000-1500 feet late tonight/early Wednesday morning. The ceiling
will graduallly rise to near 3000 feet again Wednesday afternoon.
N-nwly surface wind will veer around to a nely direction and
become light this evening as the surface ridge extending from MN
southwest into central KS shfits slowly eastward.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1221 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS OVERNIGHT INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUING TO SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. ALOFT...A
100+ KT JET CAN BE SEEN DIVING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA AND WESTERN
MISSOURI AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IN THE MID LEVELS...HEIGHT
RISES SUGGEST THE BUILDING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...AND SOME MINIMAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPREAD FROM
MANITOBA STRETCHING SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS CIRCULATING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...WITH STRATUS BANDS STRETCHING INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. UNDER THESE BANDS...METAR SITES HAVE INDICATED CEILING
HEIGHTS NEAR 1500 FT AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE AT
VALENTINE.
FOR THE VERY NEAR SHORT TERM...THESE STRATUS BANDS WILL BE OF
CONCERN. SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP...SREF...AND HRRR ALL
SUGGEST THAT REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. AT THIS TIME...CONTINUED WITH
AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED. AS SUCH...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGE
AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE PLAINS...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
AND HELP CLEAR OUT ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL CENTER ON
THE POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL SURGE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES
NEAR 10 KTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE STATE
LINE. THEREFORE...IT REMAINS A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE FOG AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE MORNING THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOULD BECOME DRIZZLE. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH DRIZZLE IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY MODEL
THAT MOVES THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST IS THE GFS...SO WILL KEEP
THE DRIZZLE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. IT SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS AND EVEN SOME RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP AS THERE
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM ADVECTION.
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE ROCKIES WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON
SATURDAY. THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
SATURDAY. THE QUESTION BECOMES PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY LAYER AND HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST...BUT THAT IS EVEN A LITTLE
QUESTIONABLE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN UP SOME AND
THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS WITH MAYBE SOME RAIN IN THE EAST.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHERE THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING UP THE
QUESTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE. SUNDAY THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH THAT EXPECT RAIN BUT TEMPERATURES AT 850MB START TO COOL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE NIGHT THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
COOL AND THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH AND MAYBE CHANGE TO SNOW DURING
THE NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST AND EXPECT DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY AROUND DAWN.
THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT THREAT OF LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. IFR VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM AROUND DAWN
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...BUT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW LOW THE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL GET THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1123 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A DECENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER NRN ILLINOIS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FURTHER WEST...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NORTH INTO THE YUKON OF CANADA. WITHIN THIS
RIDGE...A DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED OVER WESTERN MONTANA. CURRENT WV
IMAGERY AS OF 2 AM CST HAS THIS FEATURE NOW OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF MT. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. FURTHER
WEST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER EASTERN WYOMING
INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AN AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVERNIGHT...AND THIS AREA OF
CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SWRN NEBRASKA. THE FOG WAS PRIMARILY ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS AND ROUGHLY EXTENDED FROM
VALENTINE TO AINSWORTH...SWD TO THEDFORD...NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN
BOW. FURTHER WEST...SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM.
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CST...RANGED
FROM 15 AT NORTH PLATTE TO 25 AT BROKEN BOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ARE TEMPERATURES TODAY...AS WELL AS FOG POTENTIAL THIS
MORNING...AS WELL AS TONIGHT. FOR TODAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS ALONG A
LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO BROKEN BOW. ATTM...THE LATEST HI RES RUC
SOLN HAS THIS AREA OF FOG EXPANDING SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK. ONE WILDCARD IN THE DEGREE OF WESTWARD
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...IS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. ATTM...FOG VISBYS HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 5 MILE RANGE...SO WILL KEEP FOG MENTION AS
PATCHY THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE HRRR SOLN...FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIME FRAME...AND HAVE
EXTENDED THIS MENTION OF FOG INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS GIVEN
THIS MODEL TREND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK EAST LATER
TODAY INCREASING SRLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
TAKE ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT...RESULTING IN SOME LIMITED DOWNSLOPE
AND WARMER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. FURTHER EAST...THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUDS...SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING HIGH...WILL LIMIT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST...TO THE 40S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST
MAV GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER FOR HIGHS OVER THE PAST 3
RUNS...AND HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER MET
GUIDANCE. WITH THIS IN MIND...TRENDED HIGHS TDY SOME 2 TO 4
DEGREES COLDER THAN THE INHERITED FCST. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SRLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE LATEST
NAM SOLN IS INDICATING NEAR SATURATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM CURTIS...TO
ONEILL. INHERITED FCST HAD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN
THESE AREAS AND IT WILL BE CONTINUED WITH THE CURRENT FCST
PACKAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK
DOWN/FORCED EAST AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN STATES
AND EVENTUALLY THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE...AND SHOULD WARM BY SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. HIGHS
BY FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY WARMER IF GREATER MIXING OCCURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
PROVIDE FOR PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS GENERATE LIGHT DZ/QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OUR EAST THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY...BUT THE MOISTURE
PROFILES ONLY FAVOR STRATUS AND/OR FOG AS THE DEPTH OF THE RETURN IS
RATHER SHALLOW.
CONCERNING THIS WEEKEND AND A POTENTIAL SYSTEM...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A
DAY MAKES. IN 24 HOURS THE GFS SOLUTION HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS WEEKENDS CLOSED H5 LOW BY HUNDREDS OF MILES. THE
MODEL GENERATED TRACK OF THE LOW YESTERDAY FAVORED THE BIG BEND
OF TEXAS ON SUNDAY...THEREAFTER TRACKING THE LOW OVER HEART OF TEXAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TONIGHT...THE GFS IS FAVORING A SOLUTION
WHICH CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...THEN TRACKING THE
LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...AND EVENTUALLY
TOWARD THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODEL
INDICATES THE MEAN TROUGH TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EMERGES ON
THE PLAINS. COMPLICATING MATTERS...THE EUROPEAN CAMP AND NUMEROUS
GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A SIMILAR TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS /AT
LEAST INITIALLY/. SO FOR THE FIRST SUITE OF RUNS PROGGING THIS
SYSTEM...MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SHOWING SOME COHERENCE...BUT
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS SEVERELY LACKING. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS LOW...ESPECIALLY SINCE ALL LONG TERM GUIDANCE
GENERATES CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS ON SUNDAY.
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE KEYING ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...GENERATING
AN AREA OF PV DESTRUCTION OVER OUR SOUTH...AND SEVERELY LIMITING THE
QPF POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH THE CWA. THE GFS HOWEVER DOES EVENTUALLY
GENERATE WRAP AROUND QPF SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH
AND EAST. THE WRAP AROUND IS IN QUESTION AS THE CONVECTION
/PROJECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN KANSAS/ WOULD ALLOW FOR AN ASSUMED
GREATER EASTWARD WOBBLE OF THE H7 LOW. SO INSTEAD OF THE MODEL
PROJECTED H7 LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THE MORE LIKELY
LOCATION WOULD BE EASTERN OR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THE WRAP AROUND
WOULD THUS BE SHUNTED SOUTHEAST AS WELL. THE ECMWF IS
CONCERNING...GENERATING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER ON
SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN...THE CONVECTION THAT THE MODEL IS GENERATING
PUTS ANY OF THE QPF ACROSS OUR CWA SEVERELY IN QUESTION. THE CR-INT
PROCEDURE REMAINS PESSIMISTIC IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT FOR SUNDAY AND
BEYOND...WHICH IS FAVORED AT THIS POINT...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE BLENDED FORECAST. BUT...LAST NIGHT MY FORECAST STATED THE
POTENTIAL WEEKEND STORM WAS LOOKING MORE LIKE A "DUD" FOR THE
CWA...AT THIS TIME I WISH TO RETRACT THOSE WORDS AND STATE THAT THIS
SYSTEM IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
CURRENTLY PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF
THE HWY 83 CORRIDOR...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT THE KVTN OR KLBF SITES
AS THE COVERAGE SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AS BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...GOMEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
335 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY SLOWLY MOVING NOR EASTER WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
REGION. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES HAS DROPPED DOWN TO NR 1000MB AS IT SPINS OFF THE JERSEY
SHORE. MODERATE TO HVY PCPN IS ONGOING ACRS ERN HALF OF CWA AS
EXPECTED BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES ARE STILL RIGHT AT OR BLO FRZG AS OF 17Z WITH -FZRA
FALLING AT THESE LOCATIONS AND HEARING ABOUT NUMEROUS MOTOR VEHICLE
ACCIDENTS.
PCPN HAS ESSENTIALLY HIT A BRICK WALL AT THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO MV MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS
NOW UNTIL AFT 00Z. DEFORMATION BAND THAT THE MODELS WERE INSISTENT
WUD ROTATE WEST THRU THE EVNG HRS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE A FRACTURED
BAND OF MIXED PCPN.
H9 TEMPS PER LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATING BLYR TEMPS RMNG ISOTHERMAL
THRU 21Z THIS AFTN AND VRY SLOWLY DROPPING BYND THIS TIME. EXPECT A
MIXED BAG THRU BULK OF THE OVRNGT FOR SXNS EAST OF I-81 WITH CLD AIR
BEING PULLED IN FM THE WEST. ANOTHER WV FCST TO MV THRU NRN ZONES
AFT 06Z TONIGHT AND WITH MOISTURE FM LK ADDED IN EXPECT SVRL INCHES
OF SNOW TO FALL ACRS THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
THRU THE OVRNGT IS NOW LOOKING TO BE MEAGER WITH A GNRL INCH OR TWO
ACRS THE BULK OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY 2-4 INCHES IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SUSQUEHANNA REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
315 PM UPDATE...
MOISTURE WL CONTINUE TO WRAP-ARND THE NOR`EASTER THRU THE SHORT
TERM. DEFORMATION BAND FINALLY GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER CURRENTLY
AND WL ROTATE INTO THE FINGER LKS BY MORNING. ADDED MOISTURE OFF
OF THE LKS WL LKLY BRING 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW ACRS FINGER LKS AND
SUSQUEHANNA REGION DRG THE DAY WED THO AMNTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER, THUS HV OPTED TO KEEP WARNINGS GOING FOR CNTRL NY.
SYSTEM WL BCM VERTICALLY STACKED DRG THE DAY TOMORROW AND WITH NW
FLOW MVG DOWN ACRS THE LKS EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.
ONLY QUESTION WL BE IS IF DRY SLOT WL MV IN FM THE EAST AND
DENDRITE ZONE WL LOSE MOISTURE DRG THE AFTN HRS BUT WL ALLOW
LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON DROPPING HEADLINES EARLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WOBBLING AROUND OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA
IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR PERIODS OF SNOW WRAPPING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS NY AND
FAR NORTHERN PA WITH HIGH CHANCE DONE AROUND I-80 FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND -6 TO -8 WITH
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE NNW FLOW. THIS PATTERN IS
USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS
OUR AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS NY STATE WITH MANY AREAS PROBABLY STILL
GETTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW.
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT
SCATTERED SNOW SHWOERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE EAST COAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CIGS
WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR ESPECIALLY ON HILL TOP
AIRPORTS SUCH AS ITH AND BGM. VSBYS WILL FALL TO IFR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
THEN NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT THROUGH WED...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW OR BLSN. NEAR AIRPORT MINS AT
TIMES IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW TUE NGT-EARLY WED.
THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHSN. BETTER CHC IN NY.
SAT...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-023-025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ022-024-
062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...DJP/MSE
AVIATION...DJP/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
316 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY SLOWLY MOVING NOR EASTER WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
REGION. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES HAS DROPPED DOWN TO NR 1000MB AS IT SPINS OFF THE JERSEY
SHORE. MODERATE TO HVY PCPN IS ONGOING ACRS ERN HALF OF CWA AS
EXPECTED BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES ARE STILL RIGHT AT OR BLO FRZG AS OF 17Z WITH -FZRA
FALLING AT THESE LOCATIONS AND HEARING ABOUT NUMEROUS MOTOR VEHICLE
ACCIDENTS.
PCPN HAS ESSENTIALLY HIT A BRICK WALL AT THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO MV MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS
NOW UNTIL AFT 00Z. DEFORMATION BAND THAT THE MODELS WERE INSISTENT
WUD ROTATE WEST THRU THE EVNG HRS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE A FRACTURED
BAND OF MIXED PCPN.
H9 TEMPS PER LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATING BLYR TEMPS RMNG ISOTHERMAL
THRU 21Z THIS AFTN AND VRY SLOWLY DROPPING BYND THIS TIME. EXPECT A
MIXED BAG THRU BULK OF THE OVRNGT FOR SXNS EAST OF I-81 WITH CLD AIR
BEING PULLED IN FM THE WEST. ANOTHER WV FCST TO MV THRU NRN ZONES
AFT 06Z TONIGHT AND WITH MOISTURE FM LK ADDED IN EXPECT SVRL INCHES
OF SNOW TO FALL ACRS THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
THRU THE OVRNGT IS NOW LOOKING TO BE MEAGER WITH A GNRL INCH OR TWO
ACRS THE BULK OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY 2-4 INCHES IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SUSQUEHANNA REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
315 PM UPDATE...
MOISTURE WL CONTINUE TO WRAP-ARND THE NOR`EASTER THRU THE SHORT
TERM. DEFORMATION BAND FINALLY GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER CURRENTLY
AND WL ROTATE INTO THE FINGER LKS BY MORNING. ADDED MOISTURE OFF
OF THE LKS WL LKLY BRING 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW ACRS FINGER LKS AND
SUSQUEHANNA REGION DRG THE DAY WED THO AMNTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER, THUS HV OPTED TO KEEP WARNINGS GOING FOR CNTRL NY.
SYSTEM WL BCM VERTICALLY STACKED DRG THE DAY TOMORROW AND WITH NW
FLOW MVG DOWN ACRS THE LKS EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.
ONLY QUESTION WL BE IS IF DRY SLOT WL MV IN FM THE EAST AND
DENDRITE ZONE WL LOSE MOISTURE DRG THE AFTN HRS BUT WL ALLOW
LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON DROPPING HEADLINES EARLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
ON THURSDAY...LINGERING SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY LOW
INTENSITIES. THE CYCLONE WILL STILL BE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NY
AND PA.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ACTIVATE THE LAKES, BUT TO WHAT TO DEGREE?
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE LOW AND WILL BE LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
TOO. SO...WENT FOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES BUT
KEPT SNOW TOTALS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
130 PM UPDATE...
LARGE STACKED LOW STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER NY. NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT LIKELY THU AND FRI.
FRI NGT ON LOW MOVES EAST AND UL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH MOVES IN FROM
WEST. AS TYPICAL GFS FASTER THAN EURO. POPS LOW ENOUGH THAT KEPT
THE CWA DRY FRI NGT TO TUESDAY. SUNDAY TO MONDAY WAA INCREASES ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WITHIN 5
DEGREES OF AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE EAST COAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CIGS
WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR ESPECIALLY ON HILL TOP
AIRPORTS SUCH AS ITH AND BGM. VSBYS WILL FALL TO IFR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
THEN NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT THROUGH WED...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW OR BLSN. NEAR AIRPORT MINS AT
TIMES IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW TUE NGT-EARLY WED.
THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHSN. BETTER CHC IN NY.
SAT...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-023-025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ022-024-
062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...DJP/TAC
AVIATION...DJP/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
109 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY SLOWLY MOVING NOR EASTER WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
REGION. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES HAS DROPPED DOWN TO NR 1000MB AS IT SPINS OFF THE JERSEY
SHORE. MODERATE TO HVY PCPN IS ONGOING ACRS ERN HALF OF CWA AS
EXPECTED BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES ARE STILL RIGHT AT OR BLO FRZG AS OF 17Z WITH -FZRA
FALLING AT THESE LOCATIONS AND HEARING ABOUT NUMEROUS MOTOR VEHICLE
ACCIDENTS.
PCPN HAS ESSENTIALLY HIT A BRICK WALL AT THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO MV MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS
NOW UNTIL AFT 00Z. DEFORMATION BAND THAT THE MODELS WERE INSISTENT
WUD ROTATE WEST THRU THE EVNG HRS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE A FRACTURED
BAND OF MIXED PCPN.
H9 TEMPS PER LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATING BLYR TEMPS RMNG ISOTHERMAL
THRU 21Z THIS AFTN AND VRY SLOWLY DROPPING BYND THIS TIME. EXPECT A
MIXED BAG THRU BULK OF THE OVRNGT FOR SXNS EAST OF I-81 WITH CLD AIR
BEING PULLED IN FM THE WEST. ANOTHER WV FCST TO MV THRU NRN ZONES
AFT 06Z TONIGHT AND WITH MOISTURE FM LK ADDED IN EXPECT SVRL INCHES
OF SNOW TO FALL ACRS THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
THRU THE OVRNGT IS NOW LOOKING TO BE MEAGER WITH A GNRL INCH OR TWO
ACRS THE BULK OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY 2-4 INCHES IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SUSQUEHANNA REGION. WL DRASTICALLY BE REDUCING SNOW
TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT AND WL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MAKE DECISION ON
WHETHER TO CANCEL OR DROP WARNINGS DOWN TO ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
425 AM UPDATE...
NOR` EASTER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...BECAUSE IT
BASICALLY RUNS INTO A BRICK WALL /IN THE FORM OF A VERY STRONG 1045MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN CANADA/ AND SO HAS NOWHERE TO GO.
REMAINS OF INITIAL DEFORMATION BAND WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER-FINGER LAKES AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE
LIGHTER SNOW AND OR FREEZING RAIN-DRIZZLE OCCURS IN THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...THE NOR` EASTER BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED...WHICH MEANS WE WILL BE VULNERABLE TO ADDITIONAL WAVES
ROTATING AROUND IT. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SUCH WAVE OF
MOISTURE SPINNING UP INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
WRAPPING BACK ACROSS OUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP /OR RETURN/ ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA...HEAVIEST ACROSS OUR NEW YORK ZONES.
ALSO...THE STACKED LOW WILL WOBBLE AND THEN RELOCATE DIRECTLY OVER
OUR REGION /INSTEAD OF THE COAST/. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT
COLDER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION AS THIS OCCURS...SO THE SNOW WILL BE
OF A FLUFFIER LOWER WATER CONTENT TEXTURE WITH TIME /ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH 20S/. IT WILL
BECOME MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING...THOUGH WINDS
THEMSELVES WILL LUCKILY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS WELL.
ALL TOLD...STORM SNOW TOTALS...HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION...ARE
EXPECTED TO WIDELY RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT OR
MORE...HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY
INCLUDE EXACT POSITIONING AND INTENSITY OF THE MESOSCALE
BAND...HOW WELL THE PRIMARY BAND HANGS TOGETHER WHILE SHIFTING
WEST AWAY FROM CATSKILLS-POCONOS TONIGHT...AND HOW LOW THE
SNOWFALL-TO-LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE /AND THE IMPACT ON TOTALS/.
ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...THIS WILL NOT BE A
FLUFFY EAST-TO-SHOVEL SNOW...BUT RATHER...OF THE WET CRUSTY DENSE
KIND ESPECIALLY LOWER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
ON THURSDAY...LINGERING SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY LOW
INTENSITIES. THE CYCLONE WILL STILL BE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NY
AND PA.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ACTIVATE THE LAKES, BUT TO WHAT TO DEGREE?
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE LOW AND WILL BE LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
TOO. SO...WENT FOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES BUT
KEPT SNOW TOTALS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
130 PM UPDATE...
LARGE STACKED LOW STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER NY. NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT LIKELY THU AND FRI.
FRI NGT ON LOW MOVES EAST AND UL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH MOVES IN FROM
WEST. AS TYPICAL GFS FASTER THAN EURO. POPS LOW ENOUGH THAT KEPT
THE CWA DRY FRI NGT TO TUESDAY. SUNDAY TO MONDAY WAA INCREASES ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WITHIN 5
DEGREES OF AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE EAST COAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CIGS
WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR ESPECIALLY ON HILL TOP
AIRPORTS SUCH AS ITH AND BGM. VSBYS WILL FALL TO IFR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
THEN NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT THROUGH WED...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW OR BLSN. NEAR AIRPORT MINS AT
TIMES IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW TUE NGT-EARLY WED.
THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHSN. BETTER CHC IN NY.
SAT...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP/TAC
AVIATION...DJP/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
101 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY SLOWLY MOVING NOR EASTER WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
REGION. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES HAS DROPPED DOWN TO NR 1000MB AS IT SPINS OFF THE JERSEY
SHORE. MODERATE TO HVY PCPN IS ONGOING ACRS ERN HALF OF CWA AS
EXPECTED BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES ARE STILL RIGHT AT OR BLO FRZG AS OF 17Z WITH -FZRA
FALLING AT THESE LOCATIONS AND HEARING ABOUT NUMEROUS MOTOR VEHICLE
ACCIDENTS.
PCPN HAS ESSENTIALLY HIT A BRICK WALL AT THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO MV MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS
NOW UNTIL AFT 00Z. DEFORMATION BAND THAT THE MODELS WERE INSISTENT
WUD ROTATE WEST THRU THE EVNG HRS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE A FRACTURED
BAND OF MIXED PCPN.
H9 TEMPS PER LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATING BLYR TEMPS RMNG ISOTHERMAL
THRU 21Z THIS AFTN AND VRY SLOWLY DROPPING BYND THIS TIME. EXPECT A
MIXED BAG THRU BULK OF THE OVRNGT FOR SXNS EAST OF I-81 WITH CLD AIR
BEING PULLED IN FM THE WEST. ANOTHER WV FCST TO MV THRU NRN ZONES
AFT 06Z TONIGHT AND WITH MOISTURE FM LK ADDED IN EXPECT SVRL INCHES
OF SNOW TO FALL ACRS THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
THRU THE OVRNGT IS NOW LOOKING TO BE MEAGER WITH A GNRL INCH OR TWO
ACRS THE BULK OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY 2-4 INCHES IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SUSQUEHANNA REGION. WL DRASTICALLY BE REDUCING SNOW
TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT AND WL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MAKE DECISION ON
WHETHER TO CANCEL OR DROP WARNINGS DOWN TO ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
425 AM UPDATE...
NOR` EASTER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...BECAUSE IT
BASICALLY RUNS INTO A BRICK WALL /IN THE FORM OF A VERY STRONG 1045MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN CANADA/ AND SO HAS NOWHERE TO GO.
REMAINS OF INITIAL DEFORMATION BAND WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER-FINGER LAKES AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE
LIGHTER SNOW AND OR FREEZING RAIN-DRIZZLE OCCURS IN THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...THE NOR` EASTER BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED...WHICH MEANS WE WILL BE VULNERABLE TO ADDITIONAL WAVES
ROTATING AROUND IT. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SUCH WAVE OF
MOISTURE SPINNING UP INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
WRAPPING BACK ACROSS OUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP /OR RETURN/ ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA...HEAVIEST ACROSS OUR NEW YORK ZONES.
ALSO...THE STACKED LOW WILL WOBBLE AND THEN RELOCATE DIRECTLY OVER
OUR REGION /INSTEAD OF THE COAST/. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT
COLDER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION AS THIS OCCURS...SO THE SNOW WILL BE
OF A FLUFFIER LOWER WATER CONTENT TEXTURE WITH TIME /ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH 20S/. IT WILL
BECOME MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING...THOUGH WINDS
THEMSELVES WILL LUCKILY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS WELL.
ALL TOLD...STORM SNOW TOTALS...HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION...ARE
EXPECTED TO WIDELY RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT OR
MORE...HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY
INCLUDE EXACT POSITIONING AND INTENSITY OF THE MESOSCALE
BAND...HOW WELL THE PRIMARY BAND HANGS TOGETHER WHILE SHIFTING
WEST AWAY FROM CATSKILLS-POCONOS TONIGHT...AND HOW LOW THE
SNOWFALL-TO-LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE /AND THE IMPACT ON TOTALS/.
ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...THIS WILL NOT BE A
FLUFFY EAST-TO-SHOVEL SNOW...BUT RATHER...OF THE WET CRUSTY DENSE
KIND ESPECIALLY LOWER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
ON THURSDAY...LINGERING SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY LOW
INTENSITIES. THE CYCLONE WILL STILL BE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NY
AND PA.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ACTIVATE THE LAKES, BUT TO WHAT TO DEGREE?
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE LOW AND WILL BE LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
TOO. SO...WENT FOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES BUT
KEPT SNOW TOTALS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
130 PM UPDATE...
LARGE STACKED LOW STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER NY. NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT LIKELY THU AND FRI.
FRI NGT ON LOW MOVES EAST AND UL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH MOVES IN FROM
WEST. AS TYPICAL GFS FASTER THAN EURO. POPS LOW ENOUGH THAT KEPT
THE CWA DRY FRI NGT TO TUESDAY. SUNDAY TO MONDAY WAA INCREASES ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WITHIN 5
DEGREES OF AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED FREEZING RAIN IS OVER AVP AND BGM THIS MORNING. A RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN MIX IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO ELM, SYR, ITH, AND RME BETWEEN
14Z AND 17Z, THEN CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FOR THE MID AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION
ARRIVAL. BGM AND ITH WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR CEILINGS.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON,
WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN MODERATE SNOW.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT THROUGH WED...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW OR BLSN. NEAR AIRPORT MINS AT
TIMES IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW TUE NGT-EARLY WED.
THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHSN. BETTER CHC IN NY.
SAT...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP/TAC
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
338 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE EVOLUTION OF STRATUS DECK AND ITS IMPACT
ON TEMPS NOT ONLY TONIGHT BUT PROBABLY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODELS POOR WITH HANDLING THESE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYERS IN THE COLD
SEASON...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WRT STRATUS AS A RESULT.
AFOREMENTIONED WARM UP BEGINS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE SE
TONIGHT AND 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. SFC WINDS TO REMAIN WELL
MIXED OVERNIGHT WITH WAA AS 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB...STRENGTHENING
THE INVERSION AND ALLOWING THE STRATUS DECK TO REMAIN ALL THE
WHILE LIMITING ANY FOG THAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL VERY
LITTLE OVERNIGHT.
WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO ERODE ACROSS THE DVL
BSN AND POSSIBLE INTO THE RRV. MID 30S IF CLOUDS SCT OUT OTHERWISE
THE UPR 20S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE SOUTH WINDS AND DEAL WITH THE
THREAT OF A STRATUS DECK.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY RIDGING AT 500MB CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH
INCREASES THICKNESSES AND WARMING LOW LEVELS. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE GOVERNED BY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MORE LIKELY THE
FARTHER EAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE LESS AND FLOW REMAINS TRULY
SOUTHERLY. THURSDAY MAX T 40S WEST MID 30S RRV AND LOW 30S EAST...FRIDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS WITH READINGS IN THE MID
20S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 40S RRV AND WEST WITH UPR 30S
EAST.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS INTO
THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR MASS AND MOISTURE TO BRING TEMPS INTO
THE 30S AND EVEN SOME LOW 40S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND START SCOURING OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE APPROACHING NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE THERE WILL STILL BE CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
PRECIP. WITH WARM TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY KEPT A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IN THE SOUTH FOR NOW AND WILL REFINE AS THE TIME PERIOD GETS
CLOSER. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF HAS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS RIDGING.
CONSIDERING NAEFS DOES NOT HAVE MUCH FOR PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL
LEAN CLOSE TO ALLBLEND FOR NOW AND REMAIN DRY FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY AND THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
ARE STILL SOCKED IN AND WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH...AND MORE STRATUS
IS OUT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GFS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
ARE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT LOW CLOUDS VERY WELL SO WILL DISREGARD
THOSE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM...HRRR...AND RAP ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR CIGS SO WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION. THINK THAT THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SPOTS THAT ARE STILL IFR WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEN GO BACK INTO THE SOUP
TONIGHT. THINK THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A LOT OF IFR CIGS...AND SOME
GUIDANCE IS PUTTING IN SOME VIS IN THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE...BUT WILL
JUST KEEP CIGS LOW FOR NOW AND ADD ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP STRATUS LINGERING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS THERE WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS
THAT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME SCOURING OUT CLOUDS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1246 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
TWEAKING SKY GRIDS AGAIN AS STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE DVL BASIN HAS
ERODED AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED. EXPECTING SOME LOW STRATUS TO
ADVECT NORTH NORTHWEST FROM MN SIDE OF RRV AS VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS EDGE NEARING GFK. UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CLOUD DECK ACROSS E ND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE DEALING WITH THE FOG/FLURRIES
AND LOW CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. AS
OF 3 AM QUITE A FEW STATIONS CONTINUED TO REPORT FOG OR FLURRIES
SO HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF THESE THRU MID MORNING. ALSO KEPT
THE LOW CLOUDS ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE THRU MID MORNING AND THEN
TRIED TO FOLLOW A DECREASING TREND. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE
THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE TO ADJUST IF NEED BE.
WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD AND LIGHT WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH IN THE MORNING REALLY DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
STATUS QUO. LARGER SCALE MODELS NOT HANDLING THESE DETAILS SO HAVE
LEANED MORE ON THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAP/HRRR. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM TODAY GETTING TO ABOUT 2C-6C BY 00Z WED WHICH WILL ONLY
STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION...NOT HELPING TO GET RID OF THE LOW
CLOUDS. OF COURSE IF THE CLOUDS DO HANG AROUND LONGER THAN
EXPECTED THEY WILL HAVE A STAKE IN THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST. FOR NOW
PRETTY MUCH KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S TODAY. THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS STAYING UP. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE
TO ABOUT 6-8C BY 00Z THU WITH THE SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING. THESE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR A STRONG WARM UP AND THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...SO TEMP FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
THE WARM 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OR TO ABOUT 10-12C BY
00Z FRI. STILL WILL HAVE SOUTH WINDS AND NOT VERY GOOD MIXING SO
KEPT HIGHS THU IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT AND MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
GIVEN LACK OF SNOW COVER ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION...HOW WARM
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GET WILL BE A CHALLENGE. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL
BE LOW STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY FOG/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE
REGION WITHIN AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM A SOUTHERN SYSTEM LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY AND THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
ARE STILL SOCKED IN AND WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH...AND MORE STRATUS
IS OUT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GFS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
ARE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT LOW CLOUDS VERY WELL SO WILL DISREGARD
THOSE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM...HRRR...AND RAP ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR CIGS SO WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION. THINK THAT THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SPOTS THAT ARE STILL IFR WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEN GO BACK INTO THE SOUP
TONIGHT. THINK THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A LOT OF IFR CIGS...AND SOME
GUIDANCE IS PUTTING IN SOME VIS IN THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE...BUT WILL
JUST KEEP CIGS LOW FOR NOW AND ADD ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP STRATUS LINGERING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS THERE WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS
THAT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME SCOURING OUT CLOUDS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1209 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION
&&
.AVIATION...
DENSE FOG ACROSS TERMINAL KSPS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 20Z...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH. OTHERWISE ALL OTHER
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. FOG
MAY REDEVELOP BY 10Z TONIGHT ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS PERSISTED LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED NEAR THE RED
RIVER. WE STILL EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO BEGIN WITHIN THE HOUR...AND
DENSE FOG SHOULD BE GONE FROM MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 11 AM.
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 11 AM.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
IFR VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST FOR AIRFIELDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING AS AREAS OF DENSE FOG REMAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH NOON... WITH WINDS
CONTINUING TO BACK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTN.
OVERNIGHT... LIGHT FOG MAY IMPACT VARIOUS SITES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ONCE AGAIN.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY LINGER BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR... HOWEVER...
A POCKETS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
IN RESPONSE TO VERY SHALLOW SFC MOISTURE ACROSS TEXOMA AND THE RED
RIVER VALLEY... DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SRN OK AND WRN
N TX. RECENT RAP AND HRRR OUTPUT OF VIS AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES
HINT AT FOG EXPANSION NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OK FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
NEAR SUNRISE BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS... HAVE MADE THE DECISION TO
EXTEND THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 16Z (10AM CST). AT THE
MOMENT... NOT CONVINCED OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG REACHING FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE CURRENT ADVISORY. HOWEVER... SOME POCKETS OF SHORT
DURATION DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY. WITH THAT
IN MIND... AND GIVEN THE CURRENT VIS TRENDS THROUGH 230AM CST...
THERE ARE NO PLANS TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY FARTHER NORTH AT THE
MOMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH VIS TRENDS CLOSELY THIS MORNING IN
THE EVENT AN EXPANSION IS NECESSARY.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY... HELPING CLEAR FOG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER WEAK SFC BOUNDARY... MUCH LIKE THE ONE
YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL
OK THROUGH THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS.
OVERNIGHT... AS THE H500 RIDGE BROADENS ACROSS THE WRN U.S... A WEAK
H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ACROSS ERN NM AND WEST TX. THIS WILL OPEN UP SOME MODEST SFC
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF. PAIRED WITH SOME WEAK LL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH... SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE WED INTO THU.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS THE RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST STRENGTHENS... LEAVING THE SRN PLAINS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
AND CONTINUAL SFC MOISTURE RETURN. OVERALL... MOST WILL REMAIN
DRY... WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
FOR THE WEEKEND... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE... GFS/GFS13KM/ECMWF/CA...
HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW DECENT CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE RUNS
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEEP H500 TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SAT.
INCREASED PRECIP CHCS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXPECT SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ON SUNDAY. A DECENT LOW... BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM KSPS TO KOUN
SHOW COLD TEMPS ALOFT... ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER... BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WELCOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 36 55 45 / 0 0 10 10
HOBART OK 57 40 55 46 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 42 58 48 / 0 0 10 20
GAGE OK 54 37 54 42 / 0 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 48 32 50 42 / 0 0 10 20
DURANT OK 60 40 55 45 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/03/67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS PERSISTED LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED NEAR THE RED
RIVER. WE STILL EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO BEGIN WITHIN THE HOUR...AND
DENSE FOG SHOULD BE GONE FROM MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 11 AM.
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 11 AM.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
IFR VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST FOR AIRFIELDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING AS AREAS OF DENSE FOG REMAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH NOON... WITH WINDS
CONTINUING TO BACK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTN.
OVERNIGHT... LIGHT FOG MAY IMPACT VARIOUS SITES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ONCE AGAIN.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY LINGER BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR... HOWEVER...
A POCKETS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
IN RESPONSE TO VERY SHALLOW SFC MOISTURE ACROSS TEXOMA AND THE RED
RIVER VALLEY... DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SRN OK AND WRN
N TX. RECENT RAP AND HRRR OUTPUT OF VIS AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES
HINT AT FOG EXPANSION NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OK FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
NEAR SUNRISE BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS... HAVE MADE THE DECISION TO
EXTEND THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 16Z (10AM CST). AT THE
MOMENT... NOT CONVINCED OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG REACHING FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE CURRENT ADVISORY. HOWEVER... SOME POCKETS OF SHORT
DURATION DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY. WITH THAT
IN MIND... AND GIVEN THE CURRENT VIS TRENDS THROUGH 230AM CST...
THERE ARE NO PLANS TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY FARTHER NORTH AT THE
MOMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH VIS TRENDS CLOSELY THIS MORNING IN
THE EVENT AN EXPANSION IS NECESSARY.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY... HELPING CLEAR FOG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER WEAK SFC BOUNDARY... MUCH LIKE THE ONE
YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL
OK THROUGH THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS.
OVERNIGHT... AS THE H500 RIDGE BROADENS ACROSS THE WRN U.S... A WEAK
H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ACROSS ERN NM AND WEST TX. THIS WILL OPEN UP SOME MODEST SFC
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF. PAIRED WITH SOME WEAK LL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH... SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE WED INTO THU.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS THE RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST STRENGTHENS... LEAVING THE SRN PLAINS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
AND CONTINUAL SFC MOISTURE RETURN. OVERALL... MOST WILL REMAIN
DRY... WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
FOR THE WEEKEND... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE... GFS/GFS13KM/ECMWF/CA...
HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW DECENT CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE RUNS
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEEP H500 TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SAT.
INCREASED PRECIP CHCS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXPECT SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ON SUNDAY. A DECENT LOW... BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM KSPS TO KOUN
SHOW COLD TEMPS ALOFT... ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER... BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WELCOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 36 55 45 / 0 0 10 10
HOBART OK 57 40 55 46 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 42 58 48 / 0 0 10 20
GAGE OK 54 37 54 42 / 0 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 48 32 50 42 / 0 0 10 20
DURANT OK 60 40 55 45 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ033>048-
050>052.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
23/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1217 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE MENTIONING OF
MORNING WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT...TWEAK HRLY TEMPS...
DEWPOINT...WIND...AND SKY CONDITION GRID TRENDS...AND TRIM BACKED
TO MAINLY AREAS ACROSS PLATEAU REGION WHERE WINTRY MIX MIGHT OCCUR
THRU AFTERNOON HRS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INFLUENCES AND THEN DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW
ALOFT...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED CKV/BNA THRU 10/18Z WITH NLY SFC
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...GUSTS TO 20KTS...POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
CSV THRU AT LEAST 10/03Z ALSO...WITH SOME LOWERING TO LOW END MVFR/HIGH END
IFR CEILINGS THRU 10/16Z. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS PLATEAU REGION WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT WINTRY MIX THRU 10/03Z TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOWFALL THRU AT LEAST
10/09Z...BUT ANY VSBY/IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS MINIMAL AT BEST.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 926 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS PER CURRENT HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...WINDS...ALONG WITH HAVING TEMPS FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS ACROSS PLATEAU REGION. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST
AND BELOW FORECAST REASONING REMAIN ON TRACK.
WE ARE STILL EXPERIENCING COMMS PROBLEMS HERE AT THE NWS NASHVILLE
OFFICE WHICH INCLUDES PHONE LINES WORKING OFF AN ON...INTERNET DOWN...
ALONG WITH NWR OUTAGES. TECHNICIANS ARE CONTINUE TO LOOK INTO
THIS PROBLEM AND APPOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVIENCES THAT IT HAS OR MIGHT
CAUSE THIS MORNING AND HOPE TO HAVE THIS FIXED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 649 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE MID-STATE
BEHIND PASSING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION...LARGELY AT VFR HEIGHTS BUT CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER/REFORM OVERNIGHT AND THOSE MAY BE AOB 3KFT.
SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN ALSO POSSIBLE CSV TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY FOR THE NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER INDIANA WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN TN THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE
BETTER DEFORMATIONAL INFLUENCES WILL BE TO THE LEFT OF THE
TRACK...WE DO PICK UP SOME DESCENT CURVATURE AND SHEAR ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE TRACK. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOWER
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS IL...IN AND NRN MO.
LATEST HRRR AND MODEL DATA BOTH CONCUR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AN EXAMINATION OF FREEZING LEVELS DOES
SUPPORT SNOW FOR AREAS GENERALLY ABOVE 1500 FT MSL AFT 18Z TODAY.
BY 00Z THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE MID STATE...WHERE THE
CHANCES OF PRECIP EXISTS...WILL BE SNOW. AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT
AND NO ADVISORIES OR SPS PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED. FURTHERMORE...SFC
TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
A LOW CHANCE OF SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST FOR TONIGHT
BUT AMOUNTS AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT.
FOR THE FCST...WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW EASTERN THIRD
FOR THIS MORNING...JUST RAIN SOUTHEAST. THIS AFTERNOON...WILL TREND
THE GRIDS TOWARD A CHANCE OF ALL SNOW FOR THE EASTERN AREA BY
EVENING. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW 0C AND FREEZING LEVELS
WILL BE DROPPING AS WELL AS SFC TEMPS WHICH WILL BE FALLING
THROUGH THE 30S.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED. IN FACT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ON
TAP FOR WED NT AND THU.
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS A UNIFORM
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY A VERY SLOW INCREASE IN HEIGHT
VALUES.
IN THE EXTENDED FCST...HEIGHT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
A RIDGE AXIS REACHING THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL EQUATE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. LATE IN THE EXTENDED HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1154 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INFLUENCES AND THEN DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW
ALOFT...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED CKV/BNA THRU 10/18Z WITH NLY SFC
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...GUSTS TO 20KTS...POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
CSV THRU AT LEAST 10/03Z ALSO...WITH SOME LOWERING TO LOW END MVFR/HIGH END
IFR CEILINGS THRU 10/16Z. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS PLATEAU REGION WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT WINTRY MIX THRU 10/03Z TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOWFALL THRU AT LEAST
10/09Z...BUT ANY VSBY/IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS MINIMAL AT BEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 926 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS PER CURRENT HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...WINDS...ALONG WITH HAVING TEMPS FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS ACROSS PLATEAU REGION. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST
AND BELOW FORECAST REASONING REMAIN ON TRACK.
WE ARE STILL EXPERIENCING COMMS PROBLEMS HERE AT THE NWS NASHVILLE
OFFICE WHICH INCLUDES PHONE LINES WORKING OFF AN ON...INTERNET DOWN...
ALONG WITH NWR OUTAGES. TECHNICIANS ARE CONTINUE TO LOOK INTO
THIS PROBLEM AND APPOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVIENCES THAT IT HAS OR MIGHT
CAUSE THIS MORNING AND HOPE TO HAVE THIS FIXED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 649 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE MID-STATE
BEHIND PASSING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION...LARGELY AT VFR HEIGHTS BUT CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER/REFORM OVERNIGHT AND THOSE MAY BE AOB 3KFT.
SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN ALSO POSSIBLE CSV TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY FOR THE NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER INDIANA WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN TN THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE
BETTER DEFORMATIONAL INFLUENCES WILL BE TO THE LEFT OF THE
TRACK...WE DO PICK UP SOME DESCENT CURVATURE AND SHEAR ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE TRACK. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOWER
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS IL...IN AND NRN MO.
LATEST HRRR AND MODEL DATA BOTH CONCUR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AN EXAMINATION OF FREEZING LEVELS DOES
SUPPORT SNOW FOR AREAS GENERALLY ABOVE 1500 FT MSL AFT 18Z TODAY.
BY 00Z THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE MID STATE...WHERE THE
CHANCES OF PRECIP EXISTS...WILL BE SNOW. AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT
AND NO ADVISORIES OR SPS PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED. FURTHERMORE...SFC
TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
A LOW CHANCE OF SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST FOR TONIGHT
BUT AMOUNTS AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT.
FOR THE FCST...WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW EASTERN THIRD
FOR THIS MORNING...JUST RAIN SOUTHEAST. THIS AFTERNOON...WILL TREND
THE GRIDS TOWARD A CHANCE OF ALL SNOW FOR THE EASTERN AREA BY
EVENING. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW 0C AND FREEZING LEVELS
WILL BE DROPPING AS WELL AS SFC TEMPS WHICH WILL BE FALLING
THROUGH THE 30S.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED. IN FACT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ON
TAP FOR WED NT AND THU.
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS A UNIFORM
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY A VERY SLOW INCREASE IN HEIGHT
VALUES.
IN THE EXTENDED FCST...HEIGHT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
A RIDGE AXIS REACHING THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL EQUATE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. LATE IN THE EXTENDED HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
310 PM MST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER ARIZONA WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OUR SO-CALLED WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS WOUND ITSELF UP
PRETTY TIGHTLY INTO A CLOSED H5 LOW OVER ARIZONA...WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SW
NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
RESULTED IN MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500 J/KG...AND THE RESULT HAS
BEEN DECEMBER THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST
STORMS AND BEST COVERAGE HAS BEEN OVER THE GILA REGION...BUT NEW
STORMS ARE GOING UP IN CHIHUAHUA JUST TO THE SW OF SANTA TERESA.
RADAR HAD INDICATED A FINE-LINE IN THIS AREA...AND WE ARE
BEGINNING TO SEE PVA AHEAD OF THE LEADING VORT MAX.
LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (IT IS DECEMBER AFTER ALL) WILL RESULT
IN SMALL HAIL... MAYBE EVEN UP TO HALF-INCH DIAMETER IN
STRONGER/HIGHER ELEVATION STORMS.
THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS EL PASO OVERNIGHT...
AND WHILE NAM/GFS POPS REMAIN SPOTTY...NEITHER MODEL HAS HANDLED
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO SCATTERED
CATEGORY THIS EVENING FOR THE EL PASO-LAS CRUCES CORRIDOR AND
POINTS EAST. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL HIGH-RES WRF
MODELS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH CONVECTION
BUT SUGGESTS A FLARE-UP IN EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES HEADING INTO TOMORROW.
BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A RISK OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK. ALMOST AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE THUNDERSTORMS WAS THE FACT THAT
WE MANAGED TO REACH THE UPPER-60S AT EL PASO DESPITE THICK HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER TODAY. EXPECT THE SAME HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW
TRACK...NOW TAKING IT JUST NORTH OF EL PASO...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND RUNNING A LITTLE FASTER. THINGS ARE
LOOKING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM... ESPECIALLY OVER THE SACRAMENTOS...WITH SPOTTIER LOWLAND
PRECIP...MAINLY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL...WINDS WILL BE WEST
WHICH IS NOT IDEAL FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THUS LIMITED
QPF IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 09/00Z - 10/00Z...
A MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SRN NMEX
TONIGHT/TUESDAY. 00Z-14Z: SCT-BKN120-160 BKN-OVC250. SE WINDS 3-8
KTS. 14Z-24Z: FEW-SCT060 BKN100-140 BKN-0VC200. WINDS ESE 5-10
KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A SERIES OF
TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. DRY AND CONTINUED MILD
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A
SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A LARGER AND STRONGER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 45 68 46 68 45 / 30 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 42 65 42 65 41 / 40 20 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 42 67 41 68 40 / 30 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 39 67 39 67 39 / 30 20 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 31 51 30 51 34 / 30 20 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 39 64 38 63 37 / 30 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 40 62 39 61 39 / 20 10 0 0 0
DEMING 40 67 37 66 37 / 20 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 39 67 36 64 37 / 10 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 48 67 48 67 45 / 30 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 37 65 37 64 38 / 40 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 44 70 44 70 42 / 30 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 43 64 44 63 43 / 30 10 0 0 0
FABENS 41 68 40 68 41 / 30 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 42 67 42 67 41 / 20 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 44 67 45 68 44 / 30 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 37 67 36 67 35 / 30 10 0 0 0
HATCH 39 67 39 66 37 / 20 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 43 66 42 65 40 / 20 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 43 66 43 66 42 / 40 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 38 59 35 59 38 / 30 20 0 0 0
MESCALERO 32 58 30 58 35 / 30 20 0 0 0
TIMBERON 34 58 34 58 36 / 30 20 0 0 0
WINSTON 34 60 35 59 34 / 30 10 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 40 64 41 63 39 / 30 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 35 66 34 65 35 / 20 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 35 62 34 60 35 / 30 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 38 63 37 62 36 / 20 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 35 67 33 65 34 / 20 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 26 66 25 64 29 / 10 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 41 62 41 61 39 / 20 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 39 70 37 68 38 / 10 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 37 68 34 67 35 / 10 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 39 70 36 69 35 / 10 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 40 69 38 67 38 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25-HARDIMAN/20-NOVLAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1204 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RESIDUAL AREAS
OF DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. AS
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EROSION
OF THE FOG BANK SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY AND BRING AN END TO THE FOG
COMPLETELY FOR TODAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST TOWARD THE ARKLATEX THROUGH TONIGHT. IFR/TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THE FIRST HOUR...THEN EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY AND VFR CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON.
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD STALL
THE FOG FORMATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL VEER TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE NEAR-
SURFACE LAYER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 10 KTS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND BETTER POTENTIAL TO MIX OUT FOG QUICKER THAN TODAY. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF DURATION OF DENSE FOG AND VLIFR CONDITIONS
AROUND SUNRISE...THOUGH WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA.
WE WILL ADVERTISE PREVAILING IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS AT THIS TIME FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW LATER FORECASTS
TO FINE TUNE FOR MORE LIMITED CONDITIONS IF THEY BECOME MORE
APPARENT LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING ON SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
AS OF 3 AM...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED IN OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE HIGH CLOUDS WERE IMPEDING RADIATIVE HEAT LOSS
A BIT. STILL WE EXPECT FOG TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD BEFORE
SUNRISE. ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...CONDITIONS ARE
EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG AND IT IS LIKELY THAT IT WILL
BE SLOWER THAN USUAL TO LIFT AND BURN OFF. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EXPIRES AT 10AM...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO
FROM I-20 NORTH. WINDS BELOW 850MB THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LIGHT...IF NOT NEARLY CALM...WHICH MEANS THE LOW ANGLE
DECEMBER SUN WILL BE THE ONLY THING WORKING TO LIFT THE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS TODAY. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWEST TO ERODE TODAY FROM
ROUGHLY I-20 TO THE RED RIVER...BUT OUT OF ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...ONLY THE RUC HAS THESE CLOUDS HANGING IN THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY THE EXACT EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE
HUGE IMPLICATIONS ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY...BUT AM LEANING TOWARD THE
RUC SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW TRADITIONAL
GUIDANCE FROM I-20 NORTHWARD. IF AND WHERE CLOUDS HOLD IN ALL
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 50S.
INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD NIX THE DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS MORE CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS IT HAS TAPPED INTO A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND IS SLINGING
IT INTO TEXAS. THE ECMWF/NAM ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE PROFILES OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AM
INCLINED TO BELIEVE THEM. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
LAYER OF DRIER AIR BELOW THIS MOISTURE THAT WILL KEEP PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE GROUND WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS LAYER SHOULD SATURATE
FROM TOP DOWN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE INTRODUCED SPRINKLES
INTO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL
BE UNLIKELY INITIALLY. THE BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA WHERE A TINY AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
BE AVAILABLE. QPF WILL BE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WE EXPECT LESS
THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REMAIN
SEASONABLY COOL AS THICK CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT DAYTIME WARMING.
AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY EVENING...THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SUBSTANTIALLY. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
MOIST AND NEARLY SATURATED...WHICH WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WHILE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...THEY HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK FARTHER TO THE
NORTH THAN YESTERDAY/S MODEL RUNS. STILL...THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WOULD PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN A REGION OF STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT
AND GIVEN THE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY AND/OR
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONG...SURFACE
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE VERY LIMITED AND SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. 925MB THETA-E VALUES DO SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR THE INCLUSION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST BUT MUCAPE
LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPS
WILL COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY...BUT WRAP-AROUND LOW
CLOUDS MAY KEEP MONDAY/S HIGHS COOLER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 58 44 61 51 59 / 0 5 10 20 20
WACO, TX 62 42 60 51 63 / 0 5 20 30 30
PARIS, TX 60 39 55 43 55 / 0 5 5 20 20
DENTON, TX 57 40 60 49 58 / 0 5 10 20 20
MCKINNEY, TX 58 39 59 48 58 / 0 5 10 20 20
DALLAS, TX 59 45 60 50 60 / 0 5 10 20 20
TERRELL, TX 60 42 60 48 59 / 0 5 10 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 61 44 62 50 59 / 0 5 10 30 30
TEMPLE, TX 64 45 62 52 64 / 0 5 20 30 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 61 42 59 51 62 / 0 5 10 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
05/69
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. AFTER THIS...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WIND WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF
SITES. AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP DOWN INTO
IFR/LIFR RANGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF VLIFR
RANGE AND OPTED TO GO PREVAILING AT KLBB AND KPVW. THERE COULD BE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AS WE GET CLOSER TO TONIGHT SO
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH
THE BETTER PART OF THE MORNING BEFORE WE SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT
AROUND 18Z TOMORROW.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
AVIATION...
THICK FOG CONTINUES IN AND OUT AT KCDS MAKING TAF FORECASTING A
BIT TEDIOUS. AT KLBB AND KPVW...WE EXPECT A LIGHT FOG TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING THOUGH ALSO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
DENSE FOG AS WELL. LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A
RISK OF VERY LOW VISIBILITY AT KLBB AND KPVW WHILE THE MUCH LARGER
DENSE FOG AREA CONTINUES ON THE HRRR RUNS FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH. SHOULD IMPROVE BOTH SITES TO IFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY. TONIGHT WE
EXPECT A THICK BATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH KLBB AND POSSIBLY KCDS. TENTATIVE FORECAST FOR 18 HOURS
AND BEYOND WILL INDICATE PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPVW AND
KLBB. A RISK FOR MUCH WORSE CONDITIONS EXISTS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BUT
WILL LEAVE DETAILS TO LATER FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CROSSING ARIZONA TODAY WILL EDGE INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. MEAGER UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL EDGE TOWARDS
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WHILE A MASS OF 800MB TO
900MB MOISTURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS AREAS ON THE CAPROCK ESPECIALLY.
ALTHOUGH COUPLING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOT APPARENT...WE THINK
THERE COULD BE ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL LIFT TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WEST OR SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.
AND THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD FUEL ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG
FROM THE CAPROCK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY SHOULD KNOCK A CATEGORY OFF HIGHS TODAY FROM YESTERDAY.
THE MOISTURE INCREASE TONIGHT SHOULD HOLD MINIMUMS QUITE A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL. PLAN TO MAINTAIN THIS MORNINGS DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SOME
PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS...WILL ADD OR RETRACT AREAS AS NEEDED.
RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA WILL PASS OVER
WEST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MEAGER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION. A GOOD FETCH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OBSERVED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH A NOTICEABLE DRY LAYER AROUND 700MB SIMILAR TO THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM A FEW DAYS AGO. WITH SUCH WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE NOT MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT
TROUGHS OR COLD FRONTS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DEW POINTS WILL BE INCREDIBLY HIGH FOR
DECEMBER AND MAY LEAD TO FOG EVERY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND WITH EACH MODEL
ITERATION. ENSEMBLES CONFIRM THE UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH SPREAD IN
THE THEIR SOLUTIONS. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS SYSTEM IS TRENDING
PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LEE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO MORE FAMILIAR WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE LARGE CAVEAT IN ALL OF THIS IS THAT THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL AROUND 3500 MILES AWAY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PACIFIC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 62 42 58 37 65 / 0 10 10 10 0
TULIA 63 43 59 41 64 / 0 10 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 64 43 59 40 64 / 0 10 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 63 47 60 42 64 / 0 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 63 46 60 42 65 / 0 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 63 47 59 42 63 / 0 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 63 47 59 44 63 / 0 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 63 42 61 46 65 / 0 10 10 10 10
SPUR 64 46 62 47 64 / 0 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 64 45 63 49 65 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
145 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS
UP TOWARD THE JERSEY COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MERGE WITH
THE COASTAL LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NEW ENGLAND. ONCE THIS
HAPPENS OUR AREA WILL STAY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST TUESDAY...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND
THE SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE NEW JERSEY COAST. RIBBON OF DRYING IS
EVIDENT IN THE SATELLITE PIX WITH DRY AIR RESULTING IN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS RUNNING N-S THROUGH THE CENTER OF OUR CWA. CLOUDS FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH WERE ENTERING OUR WESTERN CWA...WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WHERE ALSO FOUND ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA WITH AN AREA OF RAIN STILL
PIVOTING THROUGH AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 29.
LATEST HRRR KEEPS DEFORMATION PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
CYCLONE CONFINED TO OUR FAR EASTERN CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. RAISED
POPS FOR PLACES LIKE SOUTH BOSTON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LINGERING
ACTIVITY. IN THE WESTERN CWA...DO NOT FORESEE MUCH ACTIVITY UNTIL
MUCH COLDER AIR FROM THE UPPER TROF ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT. UNTIL
THEN ANY PRECIP IN OUR UPSLOPE AREAS OF WRN GREENBRIER AND THE
HIGH COUNTRY OF NC WILL BE LIGHT.
8H TEMPS WILL START TO DROP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
IN SPITE OF THE INCREASING CAA...SUNNY BREAKS JUST LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TEST 50 FROM MARTINSVILLE
TO GREENSBORO AND INCLUDING MOUNT AIRY AND WILKSBORO NC. WARMEST
READINGS WILL BE FOUND WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...VARIED AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP READINGS
LOWER.
FOR TONIGHT...COLDER AIR FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
PENETRATE THE MOUNTAINS...850 TEMPS FALLING INTO THE M4-M8 DEG C
RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES. THIS WILL THEN FAVOR ACCUMULATING
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LIKELY
BE FOUND AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE...DOWNSLOPE FLOW PROMOTING
LESS CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIP FARTHER EAST.
AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF OUR WESTERN CWA...
MODELS INDICATE LIGHT AMOUNTS. SHALLOW DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE
PROFILES SUGGEST THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. ATTM NO HEADLINES PLANNED
UNLESS NEW MODEL RUNS INDICATE MORE QPF.
ALSO FOR TONIGHT...WINDS INCREASE. BLUSTERY...BUT LESS THAN
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR AREA WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNWIND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST TO
NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS TIME PROGRESSES THROUGH
THURSDAY...COVERAGE OF THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3K FEET WITH GUSTS BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS. SNOWFALL TOTALS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA WITH A 1
TO 3 INCH RANGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WILL MAINLY BE UNDER AN INCH. CAN NOT RULE
OUT AROUND ONE INCH FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN ASHE AND
WATAUGA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. LIGHTER TOTALS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...
MODELS ARE NOW IN THE SAME BALLPARK FOR THE EXTENDED...JUST NOT SURE
IF THE GAME IS FOOTBALL OR SOCCER. EVOLUTION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER PATTERN WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW DOING A SIT AND SPIN
OVER THE NORTHEAST US IS A FAVORED SOLUTION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEGIN TO SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH GFS BEING TYPICALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AND EURO DIGGING
IN ITS HEELS. BY MONDAY UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CROSSING THE
REGION AS NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EVEN WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE SMALL. NW FLOW UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WRN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE WINDING
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. MAYBE SOME
FLURRIES FAR WRN SLOPES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT LOOKING
LIKE QUIET WEATHER ELSEWHERE. WE THEN GET INTO SOME WEAK LIFT AS A
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME SPRINKLES GOING BUT NOTHING
TOO EXCITING...AND GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT WILL GO
WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC CONFINED TO WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST TUESDAY...
THE HRRR/NAM MAINTAINS AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW CIGS
JUST EAST OF KLYH-KDAN LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING IT
EAST AND OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THIS AREA OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL CYCLONE...FOCUS FOR THE RNK
CWA WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST WHERE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WAS
BECOMING BANKED UP AGAINST THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. MODELS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THAT SAID...MVFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS PER MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW RESULTING IN 1-3KFT CIGS. VSBYS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME RESTRICTED ATTMS PER
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ESP THE WESTERN SLOPES
VCNTY OF TNB-BLF AND JUST WEST OF LWB. EAST OF THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL CLEARING WITH
RETURN OF VFR.
WINDS SHOULD ALSO PICK UP QUITE A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BLUSTERY ATTMS. GUSTS OF 18-25KTS WILL BE COMMON
WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR UPSLOPE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ASIDE FOR SOME LINGERING MVFR
CLOUDINESS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH VFR AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1204 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS
UP TOWARD THE JERSEY COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MERGE WITH
THE COASTAL LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NEW ENGLAND. ONCE THIS
HAPPENS OUR AREA WILL STAY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST TUESDAY...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND
THE SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE NEW JERSEY COAST. RIBBON OF DRYING IS
EVIDENT IN THE SATELLITE PIX WITH DRY AIR RESULTING IN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS RUNNING N-S THROUGH THE CENTER OF OUR CWA. CLOUDS FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH WERE ENTERING OUR WESTERN CWA...WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WHERE ALSO FOUND ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA WITH AN AREA OF RAIN STILL
PIVOTING THROUGH AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 29.
LATEST HRRR KEEPS DEFORMATION PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
CYCLONE CONFINED TO OUR FAR EASTERN CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. RAISED
POPS FOR PLACES LIKE SOUTH BOSTON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LINGERING
ACTIVITY. IN THE WESTERN CWA...DO NOT FORESEE MUCH ACTIVITY UNTIL
MUCH COLDER AIR FROM THE UPPER TROF ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT. UNTIL
THEN ANY PRECIP IN OUR UPSLOPE AREAS OF WRN GREENBRIER AND THE
HIGH COUNTRY OF NC WILL BE LIGHT.
8H TEMPS WILL START TO DROP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
IN SPITE OF THE INCREASING CAA...SUNNY BREAKS JUST LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TEST 50 FROM MARTINSVILLE
TO GREENSBORO AND INCLUDING MOUNT AIRY AND WILKSBORO NC. WARMEST
READINGS WILL BE FOUND WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...VARIED AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP READINGS
LOWER.
FOR TONIGHT...COLDER AIR FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
PENETRATE THE MOUNTAINS...850 TEMPS FALLING INTO THE M4-M8 DEG C
RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES. THIS WILL THEN FAVOR ACCUMULATING
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LIKELY
BE FOUND AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE...DOWNSLOPE FLOW PROMOTING
LESS CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIP FARTHER EAST.
AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF OUR WESTERN CWA...
MODELS INDICATE LIGHT AMOUNTS. SHALLOW DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE
PROFILES SUGGEST THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. ATTM NO HEADLINES PLANNED
UNLESS NEW MODEL RUNS INDICATE MORE QPF.
ALSO FOR TONIGHT...WINDS INCREASE. BLUSTERY...BUT LESS THAN
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR AREA WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNWIND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST TO
NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS TIME PROGRESSES THROUGH
THURSDAY...COVERAGE OF THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3K FEET WITH GUSTS BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS. SNOWFALL TOTALS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA WITH A 1
TO 3 INCH RANGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WILL MAINLY BE UNDER AN INCH. CAN NOT RULE
OUT AROUND ONE INCH FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN ASHE AND
WATAUGA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. LIGHTER TOTALS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...
MODELS ARE NOW IN THE SAME BALLPARK FOR THE EXTENDED...JUST NOT SURE
IF THE GAME IS FOOTBALL OR SOCCER. EVOLUTION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER PATTERN WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW DOING A SIT AND SPIN
OVER THE NORTHEAST US IS A FAVORED SOLUTION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEGIN TO SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH GFS BEING TYPICALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AND EURO DIGGING
IN ITS HEELS. BY MONDAY UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CROSSING THE
REGION AS NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EVEN WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE SMALL. NW FLOW UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WRN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE WINDING
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. MAYBE SOME
FLURRIES FAR WRN SLOPES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT LOOKING
LIKE QUIET WEATHER ELSEWHERE. WE THEN GET INTO SOME WEAK LIFT AS A
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME SPRINKLES GOING BUT NOTHING
TOO EXCITING...AND GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT WILL GO
WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC CONFINED TO WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EST TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE SREF AND NAM THIS MORNING WITH TRENDS
TOWARD VFR BY LATE MORNING FROM ROA EAST...THOUGH DAN MAY TAKE
UNTIL 18Z TO GO VFR. MEANWHILE...NW FLOW AND UPPER LOW WILL BE
KEEPING CIGS MVFR OR WORSE OVER THE MTNS. HAVE POCKETS OF DENSE
FOG AT BLF...WITH MVFR FOG AT LWB/BCB. THINK THE FOG WILL CLEAR
OUT SOON...LEAVING BEHIND AN MVFR CIG...AT BLF/LWB...WITH BCB
GOING TO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON
LOOK FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE FOR SE WV INTO THE NC
MTNS. WILL HAVE BLF STAYING MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW BY 02Z TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME CIGS DROP BELOW 1KFT.
LWB IS GOING TO ALSO BE MVFR...THOUGH A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR CIGS
MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NW FLOW GETS GOING.
BCB MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES TONIGHT WHILE CIGS DROP BACK TO JUST
UNDER 3KFT.
WINDS SHOULD ALSO PICK UP LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS. SOME GUSTS OVER 20
KTS POSSIBLE BY WED MORNING.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR UPSLOPE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ASIDE FOR SOME LINGERING MVFR
CLOUDINESS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH VFR AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/PM/WP