Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/05/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

1044 AM PST WED DEC 3 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER POP OUT IN THE BASIN AND RANGE AND FOR MONO
COUNTY (ESPECIALLY FROM HIGHWAY 395 EAST) THROUGH THIS EVENING.
I ALSO ADJUSTED THE WORDING FOR THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
LAKE TAHOE AREA TO MENTION THAT PASSES BELOW 8000 FEET WILL LIKELY
REMAIN JUST WET THROUGH SUNSET DUE TO ABOVE FREEZING ROAD
TEMPERATURES. THIS EVENING, ISSUES MAY RETURN FOR I-80 AND HIGHWAY
50 OVER THE CREST AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING ANOTHER HEAVY BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVING THIS EVENING. SNYDER

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SLICK CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER
SIERRA PASSES. A WEAKER STORM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRIER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 AM PST WED DEC 3 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN UPPER LOW WAS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT THIS MORNING WITH QUITE A
BIT OF LIGHTNING NOTED WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BANDS ACROSS
NORTHERN CA. SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA
AND WESTERN NV WAS RESULTING IN AN UNUSUAL MIX OF SHOWERS AND FOG
WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER THING OF NOTE THIS
MORNING WERE THE WINDS OVER THE TAHOE BASIN AND NORTHEAST CA.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WERE OBSERVED WHICH IS A SIGN THAT
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT. KTVL JUMPED INTO THE
LOWER 40S WITH MORE SITES OBSERVING RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW, EVEN AT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS HEAVIEST QPF OVER NORTH CENTRAL CA TODAY
AND WE HAVE BUMPED UP NUMBERS FOR SIERRA, PLUMAS AND LASSEN
COUNTIES. THESE AREAS COULD RECEIVE ANOTHER 1-1.5 INCHES OF QPF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE TAHOE BASIN WILL BE RIGHT ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF BEST UPPER FORCING, BUT A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. SNOW LEVELS WERE MAINTAINED AT 7000-7500
FEET NOW THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS MIXING. SNOW LEVELS COULD BRIEFLY
FALL BELOW 7000 FEET, BUT SNOW AND SLUSH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT THE
HIGHEST PASSES INCLUDING CARSON PASS AND MT ROSE SUMMIT. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ABOVE 7000 FEET WHERE
ANOTHER FOOT OR SO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
89. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SPILLOVER INTO
WESTERN NV, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL NORTH OF I-80 WHERE WE BUMPED
POPS AND QPF UP SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT THE RENO-CARSON CITY AREA WILL BE IN THIS BAND AS
SOME MODELS KEEP IT JUST NORTH. HIGH POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRAJECTORY OF NEXT WAVE BRINGS ITS SOUTHERN
EDGE ACROSS THE SIERRA FRONT.

RAIN AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ALTHOUGH A
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CA. WHERE
PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS A WEAKER SYSTEM APPROACHES. THAT SYSTEM WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SIERRA AND AREAS NORTH OF I-80 FRI
AFTN/FRI NGT. HOHMANN

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM WINDING DOWN SATURDAY. THIS WAVE WILL KEEP SOME THREAT OF
PRECIP NORTH OF A SOUTH LAKE TO GERLACH LINE AS IT WEAKENS INTO
THE MEAN RIDGE. THAT RIDGE WILL HOLD INTO SUNDAY AS IT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. EXPECT A GENERALLY DRY
DAY SUNDAY AS A RESULT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE MEAN RIDGE WILL SET UP NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A GENERAL WSW FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW, HOWEVER. THE
EC IS GENERALLY FURTHER NORTH WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AND QUITE A BIT WETTER. THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORT
THEIR RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC RUNS.

FOR NOW, INCREASED THE THREAT OF PRECIP A BIT, WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE. THIS IDEA LEANS MORE
TOWARD THE EC BECAUSE I HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THESE INITIAL
WAVES BRINGING THAT MUCH MOISTURE THIS FAR SOUTH WHEN THE JET
STREAM IS DIRECTED INTO WASHINGTON. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE SO WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH IT IN THE COMING DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WALLMANN

AVIATION...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA NORTH AND WEST OF A KMMH TO
KYER TO KLOL LINE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS AT TIMES FOR KTRK/KTVL/KCXP. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF VFR
CONDS OVER NEVADA AT TIMES, BUT WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND MORE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY, MTN OBSCN AND REDUCED CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE SIERRA
AROUND TAHOE INCLUDING KTRK/KTVL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER TODAY
SO NO RUNWAY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

FOR KRNO, EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN SHOWERS WITH SOME VFR
CONDITIONS WHEN IT CLEARS. KCXP, IFR THRU 16Z THEN SIMILAR TO KRNO
AFTERWARD. KMMH, BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS THROUGH 16Z, BUT WITH THE
MAIN PART OF THE SYSTEM HEADING NORTH, FLUCTUATION BETWEEN
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARD.

WINDS ALSO INCREASE ALOFT WITH 10,000 FT WINDS AROUND 40-45 KTS.
THERE WILL BE SOME MTN WAVE TURBULENCE, BUT NOT AS BAD AS IT COULD
BE DUE TO THE DEEP MOISTURE. STILL, OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL MIX DOWN
TO THE TERMINALS WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. IN ADDITION, WITH
MTN WAVES WEAKER, DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH LLWS. STILL ABOUT A 20%
CHC OF IT OCCURRING AROUND KTVL AND KTRK.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ALL AREAS AFTER 12Z THU ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
SLOWER IN THE SIERRA DUE TO THE CONTINUED WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. WALLMANN

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR
NVZ002.

CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR
CAZ072.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

942 AM MST WED DEC 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM MST WED DEC 3 2014

WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
SOME INCREASE IN LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREA
RADARS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH CURRENT ECHO COVERAGE BUT A
HINT OF INCREASE LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP NOW ACROSS LARIMER
COUNTY. STILL CEILINGS ARE NOT THAT LOW. POP COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH AND WILL LIKELY TAPER THIS DOWN A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CROSS NORTHEAST PLAINS...QUITE A
BIT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM CLOUDS AND LAST EVENINGS WEAK FRONT. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST WED DEC 3 2014

MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER COLORADO FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SO
FAR IT APPEARS THAT SNOW IS SPOTTY AT BEST IN OUR AREA...THERE HAS
BEEN MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT MUCH LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MODEST WINDS THIS MAY
NOT CHANGE VERY QUICKLY AND IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE MORE CLOUDS THAN
SNOW. THERE IS A LITTLE SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW THAT WILL PRODUCE
MORE FAVORABLE WINDS FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT AS THE WINDS AND MOISTURE
GET BETTER BEHIND THE TROUGH THERE WILL ALSO BE SUBSIDENCE...SO
AGAIN THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO WHAT THE WEAK OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS CAN SQUEEZE OUT OF AN AIRMASS THAT WILL STILL NOT BE VERY
MOIST OR UNSTABLE. LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST ALONE WITH ABOUT 2 TO
5 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS...BUT
THIS MAY EVEN BE TOO MUCH.

WITH THE WEAK WAVE PASSING LATE TODAY...THERE MAY BE A WINDOW FOR
INCREASED WINDS DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS AGAIN. FLOW IS A BIT LESS
THAN WITH THE LAST SEVERAL TROUGHS AND THE FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR
AMPLIFICATION IS ONLY AROUND FOR A LITTLE WHILE LATE TODAY. SO IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A HIGH WIND THREAT...BUT PROBABLY
ANOTHER ROUND OF 40-60 MPH WIND GUSTS IN AREAS FAVORED IN WESTERLY
FLOW FOR A FEW HOURS.

WITH THE CLOUD COVER THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING WILL BE
LIMITED...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND THIS LOOKS GOOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST WED DEC 3 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL WITH ANOTHER WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE SLIPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN CO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS TO PRODUCE CHC POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FURTHER
EAST...DOWNSLOPE NEGATE ANY PCPN AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AXIS SLIPPING ACROSS COLORADO. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CO LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
NOT MUCH OF THIS WL IMPACT THE CWA IN TERMS OF PCPN...WITH MUCH OF
THE QG ASCENT PASSING TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S EACH AFTN. MORE RIDGING ON
MONDAY...WITH SFC LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST
WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY BUT FOR NOW WL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE GRIDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 926 AM MST WED DEC 3 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SURFACE WIND FORECAST AS DENVER CYCLONE
DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE AM/AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS ALREADY
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT DENVER AND HAVE BEEFED UP WINDS
THERE ALREADY. QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THE CYCLONE SHIFTS TO THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS WINDS SHIFTING NW AT APA/DEN IN
THE 19-20Z RANGE WHILE RAP IS SLOWER AND MORE IN THE 22-00Z RANGE.
APPEARS APA ALREADY TRENDING MORE W-NW AND MAY KEEP THAT DIRECTION
FOR THAT DAY ALONG WITH BJC. VFR WITH CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL VARIETY.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

1250 PM EST WED DEC 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO
RAIN LATER THIS MORNING. MUCH MILDER WEATHER BRIEFLY RETURNS
TODAY. THURSDAY BEGINS A TREND TOWARDS COLDER BUT DRY CONDITIONS
LASTING INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIP LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THEN A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF WINTRY WEATHER MON.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...
MAIN ISSUE IS THAT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW AS FRONTAL
PROGRESSION SLOWED BY A WAVE MOVING ALONG IT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SE HALF OF AREA REFLECTING RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE AT THE MOMENT ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. DO NOT SEE MUCH BREAK IN THE CLOUDS UNTIL AFTER THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TEMPER THE POTENTIAL FOR
MILDER TEMPERATURES BY KEEPING AN INVERSION ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY QUICKLY AT ANY LOCATION WHERE THE
INVERSION BREAKS...WHICH MAKES THAT PART OF THE FORECAST
ESPECIALLY QUICKLY.

1030 AM UPDATE...
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS MESONET OBS INDICATE
TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG
WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS
CT AND INTO RI LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WITH
AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING. MID LEVEL DRYING BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE WEST AFT 18Z SO THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
TO E HALF NEW ENG DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY.

TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S CAPE/ISLANDS AND THE MILDER AIR BEGINNING
TO EXPAND INTO S RI AND SE MA AND EXPECT THIS REGION TO SEE TEMPS
REACH INTO THE 50S...WITH 40S IN THE INTERIOR...BUT PROBABLY
HOLDING IN UPPER 30S NORTH CENTRAL AND NW MA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CONDITIONS WILL BE DRYING OUT AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY...
WHICH WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING.

THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT ALSO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* COLDER BUT DRY THRU FRIDAY
* A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
* A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY

OVERALL...00Z MODEL DATA IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THERE ARE OF COURSE THE USUAL DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING BUT
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
QUEBEC EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.

THEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A COASTAL LOW WILL PASS BY SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO DRAIN DOWN AT THE
SURFACE RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THIS COASTAL LOW.

DESPITE THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ON THE
MONDAY STORM...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WEEKEND
STORM. THIS COMES FROM SEVERAL THINGS...INCLUDING THE TIME FRAME...
DIFFERENCES IN THE ENSEMBLES...AND THE CHANGES IN PTYPE THAT WOULD
RESULT FROM A CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALLOWING COLD AIR TO DRAIN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
STILL...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR
EARLY DECEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE
GFS DOES HAVE A STRONGER FRONT THAN THE ECMWF BUT THE EFFECTS ARE
LARGELY THE SAME WITH SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF AND WITH THE
FRONT. THIS PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE A WINTRY MIX WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG WITH SNOW AND
SLEET. WHILE QPF INDICATES SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ADVISORY
CRITERIA AND JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ICE...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD IS MOST UNCERTAIN WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM MOST LIKELY AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS HAVE A FEW TIMING/TRACK
DIFFERENCES WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF A BIT FASTER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS. ECMWF ENSEMBLES LEND CREDENCE TO THE OPERATIONAL
GFS WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN ON TRACK.
POTENTIAL TRACKS ARE IN A FAIRLY NARROW ENVELOPE FROM TRACKING OVER
NANTUCKET TO OUTSIDE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.

BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
JUST ABOUT ANYTHING FROM SNOW ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION TO A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO RAIN. THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION
THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT RIGHT NOW IS FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

FINALLY...BECAUSE THIS IS A COASTAL STORM AND TIDES ON THE EAST
COAST ARE RUNNING AROUND 11 FEET...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE TRACK OF
THE STORM AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES PAST SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING OF THE
BREAK UP OF STRATUS AND FOG AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFT TO MVFR W TO E IN THE 23Z TO 02Z TIME
PERIOD. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND SE OF A BOS-BDL
LINE. GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH G25-30KT
LIKELY WHEREVER THE INVERSION BREAKS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CIGS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE AS SW
WINDS INCREASE TOWARD 00Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING OF IMPROVING VSBYS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO
MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH RAIN SHOWERS SE AND
POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX NW WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH REGION.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
MVFR/IFR CIGS AS CLOUDS INCREASE.

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL NOT CONFIDENT HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL MIX
DOWN...AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ESTABLISH A SHALLOW WE
ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN SCA GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF
REACHING GALE FORCE GUSTS. NO GALE HEADLINES YET DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY BUT THIS WILL BE RE- EVALUATED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NECESSARY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS
WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY RELAXING OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. MAY NEED TO MAINTAIN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS NORTH OF THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY BUILD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THEN CROSSES THE WATERS SATURDAY AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>234-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ256.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/THOMPSON
MARINE...BELK/RLG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

410 PM EST WED DEC 3 2014

.UPDATE...

BASED ON LATEST CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND WIND FIELD...ALONG
WITH LATEST MODEL DATA...HAVE MOVED UP THE START TIME AND EXPANDED
COVERAGE OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG BANK HAS MOVED ONTO
BEACHES OVER NE FL...AND IS APPROACHING INTERSTATE 95 IN FLAGLER
AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES. LATEST NAM AND HRRR SHOW THIS AREA TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND THIS EVENING...WITH THIS AREA MOVING
ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 55 74 54 70 / 10 10 10 10
SSI 59 67 56 69 / 10 0 10 10
JAX 56 73 56 73 / 0 10 10 10
SGJ 60 71 60 74 / 10 10 10 20
GNV 56 77 57 76 / 0 0 0 20
OCF 56 79 58 78 / 0 10 0 20

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
MARION-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-
ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-
WAYNE.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ALTAMAHA
SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH
TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
FL OUT 20 NM.

STRUBLE/ENYEDI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1043 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE/OBS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AND ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. CEILINGS HAVE RISING AND
VSBYS HAVE ALSO RISEN TO AROUND 10 MILES. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
STILL LOWER WITH STRATUS/VSBYS AROUND 4 TO 6 MILES ACROSS THE WRN
MIDLANDS...CNTRL MIDLANDS AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CSRA. LATEST HRRR
AND 00Z NAM LI FIELD INDICATES THAT DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. DUE EXPECT A LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN IF LOW CLOUDS
BECOME SCATTERED STILL SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
CWA. BECAUSE OF LATEST HRRR TRENDS AND DRIER AIR TRYING TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION...AM DOWNPLAYING FOG POTENTIAL AND JUST EXPECT
CLOUDS. DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES JUST A DEGREE OR TWO BASED
ON CURRENT READINGS AND DRIER AIR. EXPECT LOWER/MIDDLE 40S NORTH
TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A
SMALL POP ALONG THE BORDER OF THE MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT AS VERY
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED INTO THAT REGION THIS EVENING.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE
CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE BY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY FLAT H5 RIDGING FURTHER
WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS
NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP SUPPORT STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
MORNINGS. THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. MOISTURE WILL
BECOME DEEPER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE NAM WAS A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE COMPARED
TO THE GFS. THE NAM INDICATED THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS AROUND NOON. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTED CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH AND LIKELY NORTH WITH THE
CHANCE GREATER CHANCE IN THE NORTH BECAUSE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
GREATER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. THE RAIN CHANCE SHOULD DIMINISH BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS CONCERN HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTINUE
IN A NORTHEAST FLOW. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH LESS MOISTURE
MONDAY BUT STILL INDICATE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS ARE LESS THAN 10
PERCENT...BUT WE KEPT THE SMALL RAIN CHANCE BECAUSE OF THE GREATER
MOISTURE SHOWN BY PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A
DRY PATTERN WITH RIDGING DOMINATING DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CIGS IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH AROUND 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
DRIER AIR HAS BEEN WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA REACHING
THE PEE DEE REGION BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR WILL
MAKE IT DOWN TO THE TERMINALS BEFORE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY
BLANKET THE REGION AND TERMINALS WITH MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB AND
IFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL. CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING AT CAE/CUB/OGB
AND EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OR POSSIBLY
DROP BACK INTO IFR CATEGORY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS AT
AGS/DNL THROUGH 12Z. GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AGS/DNL MAY NOT REMAIN VFR LONG AND LIKELY WILL
FALL BACK TO MVFR CIGS BY 00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MAINLY AT
NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG OR STRATUS THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS POCATELLO ID

854 AM MST WED DEC 3 2014

.UPDATE...FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH EAST
IDAHO THIS MORNING PER RADAR IMAGERY. HRRR WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT
FIELD SEEMS TO ACCURATELY MATCH BREAK POINT BETWEEN RAIN/SNOW PER
MESONET SFC OBS AND AREA WEB CAMS. BRIEF BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NEXT BATCH MOVING IN TO WESTERN EDGES BY EARLY EVENING AT LEAST
PER HRRR. NAM/SREF/GFS/RAP ALL ALSO SIMILAR WITH THIS DEPICTION AS
WELL WITH CURRENT BAND MOVING INTO NORTHEAST CORNER THIS AFTERNOON
AND SECOND BATCH REACHING SOUTHWEST CORNER AT SAME TIME. SPLIT
POPS DOWN A BIT FURTHER AND TRIED TO PROGRESS POP FOCUS PER THIS
SCENARIO. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN THE BALLPARK FOR
TODAY. DMH

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM MST WED DEC 3 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW CONTINUES TO
CHURN ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. THIS HAS SENT QUITE A BIT
OF CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN IDAHO THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CLEAR
SLOT RIGHT NOW WORKING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA
BUT THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...BUT
THAT SHOULD BE GONE BY MID MORNING AT THE LATEST. FOR TODAY...WE
WILL SEE THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTING NORTHEAST BUT ALSO
WEAKENING AS IT DOES. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE EVEN FOR
TODAY AT THIS LATE STAGE. WE CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WE
MIGHT NEED TO UP AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARDS ARCO AND
EVENTUALLY THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE DRY SLOT WORKS EAST AND THE NEXT SURGE
MOVES IN. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND REACH 5000-6000FT
FOR MOST AREAS WITH LEVELS CLOSER TO 6500FT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
ALSO THE WESTERN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ANY CONCERN FOR FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE IMPACT IS LOW AT THIS POINT. IF IT DOES HAPPEN...IT
WILL BE ISOLATED POCKETS WHERE THE COLDER AIR TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
SCOUR OUT OR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE SNAKE PLAIN. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY.
WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...WE SHOULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF
BLOWING SNOW BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH/MAJOR WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS STILL STRUGGLE WITH WHERE TO PLACE
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...MAINLY WITH A POTENTIAL BAND
ACROSS THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY. THE LATEST RUNS DO
HINT AT IT BUT CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL IS NOT THERE. WE
DID FOCUS ON HIGHER CHANCES AND AMOUNTS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AS THERE IS CONTINUED SIGNS OF UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS AND EVERYTHING SHIFTING NORTH. THAT TREND CONTINUES
TOMORROW WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. IF THE CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS REMAIN...THE REST OF EASTERN IDAHO MAY END UP MUCH
DRIER THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN. SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO CREEP
HIGHER...PEAKING AT 6000-7000FT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THAT PERIOD. SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE. A FEW
LOCATIONS UP REALLY HIGH BETWEEN HAILEY AND STANLEY AND BORDERING
YELLOWSTONE COULD SEE ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES. IMPACTS WILL BE LOWER
AND NOT WIDESPREAD...SO NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS POINT.

HEADING INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH
HELPING US TO DRY OUT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS...FOG AND
VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
SNAKE PLAIN AND TOWARD THE MONTANA BORDER. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS IS ON TAP WITH WARM WEATHER STICKING AROUND. KEYES

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH RESPECT TO THE
DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...THE 03/00Z
EUROPEAN MODEL RUN HAS MADE A SHIFT BRINGING IT MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS. LOOKS LIKE THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN IDAHO DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND THROUGH ISLAND PARK AND
DRIGGS AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED
BETWEEN 6000-6500 FEET ELEVATION...ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES ACCUMULATION
ABOVE THAT LEVEL. MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES MONDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TRANSITIONING THROUGH THIS AREA AND PROVIDING A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE COMES INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHOWS A LITTLE MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON
TUESDAY AND IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE GFS. THE GFS SOLUTION IS ALMOST A
REPEAT OF THE SATURDAY DISTURBANCE. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE WEEK AND VALLEY TEMPERATURES PERSIST IN THE 40S. RS

AVIATION...STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAS PERSISTED THROUGH LAST NIGHT
IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OFF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA IS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH TWIN FALLS THIS MORNING.
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z LOOKING FOR WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WHICH WILL HELP DECREASE THE CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION
QUICKLY. KBYI IS ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING AND ONCE THE WINDS
TURN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD POP BACK ABOVE FREEZING AT KPIH AND KIDA.
EVEN KSUN IS JUST BARELY HOLDING NEAR 32F FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS
MORNING. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL LOOSE THE CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT BUT AT LEAST LOOSE THE LIFR CONDITIONS IN FAVOR OF MORE MVFR
CEILINGS. RS

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1147 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014

.UPDATE...
1006 PM CST

UPDATE ROUND TWO...

REPORTS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT SNOW...AKA
"SNIZZLE"...HAD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST HOUR AND A
HALF AND INDICATED AS VERY LIGHT -5/-10 DB RETURNS IN RADAR.
ALREADY LOOKS LIKE A BACK EDGE TO THIS LIGHT SNIZZLE PASSING WEST-
EAST THROUGH CHICAGO METRO AND I-57 CORRIDORS AT 04Z/10 PM CST.
WITH GENERALLY VERY LIGHT/TRACE AMOUNTS AND IMMINENT ENDING OF
PRECIP HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINE...THOUGH ISSUED AN
SPS TO SPREAD INFO.

OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS VEERING MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT THIS HOUR
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING AND EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS TO END THIS
LIGHT MIXED PRECIP SHORTLY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT.

RATZER

PREVIOUS UPDATE...

842 PM CST

MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO SLOW RATE
OF TEMPERATURE FALL A BIT THIS EVENING WHERE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WAS
KEEPING TEMPS FAIRLY STEADY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OTHER
CHANGE OF NOTE WAS TO ADD A MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
TIER OF ILLINOIS COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW REPORTS OF
SNOW FLAKES REACHING THE SURFACE FROM ADJACENT DVN AND MKX COUNTIES.

WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS EVENING...TRAILING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL IOWA. EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS
WERE LIFTING RELATIVELY MILD/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BENEATH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD SHIELD. TEMPS IN THE
LOW 30S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 20S-AROUND 30 ARE CHARACTERISTIC
OF THE AIR MASS HERE...WITH NOTABLY DRIER AIR TO OUR WEST WHERE DEW
POINTS DIP INTO THE TEENS. ALOFT...A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...
PRODUCING LIFT AND AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BACK INTO NORTHERN IL. MODEST
RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS NORTHWEST IL...WITH DVN
REPORTING A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THEIR NORTHERN CWA AND SEVERAL OBS
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. DVN 00Z RAOB INDICATED A
SUBSTANTIAL WARM LAYER OF +4 C AROUND 800 MB...LIKELY SAMPLED JUST
AHEAD OF BETTER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PER IR SATELLITE LOOP...THOUGH
DOES INDICATE RATHER DRY LAYER FOR ANY PRECIP TO SURVIVE TO THE
SURFACE. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER
WHERE A FEW FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE THICKER/COLDER CLOUDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

FARTHER SOUTH...A FEW SPOTS REPORTING SOME HAZE/LIGHT FOG AND EVEN A
LITTLE VERY FINE DRIZZLE OR MIST. THIS BARELY PERCEPTIBLE HERE AT
WFO LOT AND SUSPECT IT WONT BE AN ISSUE...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ARRIVES. ILX 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS
STORY HERE...WITH SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WITH COOLEST TEMP IN LAYER
ONLY ABOUT -4 C AND DRY ABOVE INDICATING NO ICE IN COLUMN.

OTHERWISE...HAVE SLOWED TREND OF CLOUD DECREASE FROM THE WEST A BIT
AS WELL...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
256 PM CST

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE THEME OF THE FORECAST IS CONTINUED SEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY...WITH PERIODS OF NEAR TO...FOR DECEMBER...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DRAPED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL USA. OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS IS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO MN/WI. A
FEW ADDITIONAL TROUGHS LIE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND OFF THE TIP
OF ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS IN NEW ENGLAND
WHILE WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER OUR AREA SW TO THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

STRATUS IS SURGING NORTHWARD AS PRESSURE LOWERS TO THE
NORTH...THOUGH THERE IS A BACK EDGE APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE PLAINS. THE ENERGY
AT THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST
TODAY. THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM...PW`S UNDER 0.3 IN...WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW TO OUR
NORTH. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL SLIDE TO
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW...BUT CONVERGENCE ON THE FRONT IS WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF THIS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED
EAST QUICKLY WITH APPROACH OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME MID AND HIGHER CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH THE TROUGH.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN QUITE A BIT MORE NEAR JAMES BAY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT BY THIS TIME THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE EAST OF
OUR AREA. WE GET A BRIEF REINFORCING SHOT OF SLIGHTLY COLDER
AIR...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AFTER ANY LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST ERODES. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A CRISP AND DRY NIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS SLOWLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS
ZONAL AGAIN. THE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DISSOLVES...BUT
SOME WEAK ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT RAPIDLY MOVES EASTWARD.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY DOES NOT GET GOING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MORE SO FRIDAY...SO REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR
THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT COINCIDES WITH MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF CONTINUES A CONSISTENT TREND OF PRECIP
REMAINING SOUTH OF I-80. KEPT SOME SMALL POPS NORTH WITH THE GFS
HOLDING ONTO SOME PRECIP...BUT FEEL THAT MUCH OF THIS WILL SLIDE BY
TO THE SOUTH AS WE HANG ONTO A DRIER NE FLOW.

KMD

.LONG TERM...
256 PM CST

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

IT APPEARS TO BE A BENIGN AND MILDER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. QUIET
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT COOLER...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOMEWHAT EAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OFF IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPS
THE CANADIAN TROUGH AT BAY...AND THEREFORE ALLOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CURRENTLY OFF THE ALASKA COAST TO PUSH SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES IN A CLIPPER-LIKE MANNER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS
ARE MIXED AS TO WHETHER WE GET ANY PRECIP WITH THIS WITH THE
"WETTER" GFS JUST GRAZING THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN TURNING TO
POSSIBLY SNOW...WHILE THE EC IS DRY WITH THE ENERGY HEADING NORTH.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO AMPLIFY SOME BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...BUT
NOT UNTIL AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW TO START
THE WEEK. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL ALLOW A RIDGE IN THE WEST TO MAKE
SOME HEADWAY EASTWARD BUT THIS APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED A LITTLE BIT.
MODELS HAVE MODERATE PREDICTABILITY ON THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME
WHICH WOULD BRING DRY AND MILDER WEATHER.

KMD

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* BRIEF MVFR AT VERY START OF TAF PERIOD.

LENNING

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

IFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE VERY QUICKLY MOVING OUT SO ELECTED NOT TO
INCLUDE THEM IN TAFS FOR THE IL SIDE...BUT CARRIED THEM FOR AN
HOUR AT GYY. WITH APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE...WSW WINDS GRADUALLY
VEER NORTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR
OUT.

LENNING

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS.

LENNING

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY...VFR/WX NIL. ELY TO SELY WINDS.

FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN. MVFR POSSIBLE. SELY BECMG NELY
WINDS.

SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN EARLY. MVFR POSSIBLE. NELY WINDS
BECMG ELY.

SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN/SNOW LATE. IFR POSSIBLE LATE. SELY WINDS
BECMG WLY.

MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN/SNOW EARLY. IFR POSSIBLE EARLY. SELY WINDS
BECMG WLY.

KREIN

.MARINE...
123 PM CST

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...WITH HIGHEST SPEEDS TO 30 KT BEING OBSERVED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE SAME SPEEDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TONIGHT BUT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THIS TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SPEEDS WILL BRIEFLY COME DOWN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THIS TROUGH...BUT WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD
OF TO 30 KT WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1117 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014

Backedge of clouds over west central Illinois continues to make
steady progress to the east this evening. We expect this trend
to continue during the overnight hours with most of the short
term models indicating the backedge of the clouds should push
into far east central Illinois by dawn Wednesday. A weak front
to our northwest will push across our area Wednesday morning
with little in the way of sensible weather other than a wind
shift into the west and northwest as high pressure builds east
into the Midwest for the remainder of the day. Will have the
updated zones out by 900 pm.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014

20z/2pm surface analysis shows ridge axis extending from the Great
Lakes to Texas. Despite presence of high pressure, low-level
moisture remains trapped beneath a strong subsidence inversion
evident on latest LAPS soundings, which has resulted in overcast
conditions across central Illinois this afternoon. Visible
satellite imagery shows back edge of clouds slowly eroding across
central Missouri, with satellite timing tools bringing the clearing
into the western KILX CWA by mid-evening. Latest HRRR has a similar
trend, suggesting clearing skies from west to east by mid to late
evening. Based on satellite trends and expected southwesterly
return flow on the back side of the departing high, think skies will
become mostly clear across locations along/northwest of a
Taylorville to Champaign line by midnight. Further southeast, cloud
cover will be much slower to exit, with soundings indicating mostly
cloudy skies through the entire night across the far E/SE CWA. Due
to the initial cloud cover and a light southwesterly wind, have gone
2 to 3 degrees above MAV guidance for lows tonight, with readings
ranging from the lower 20s far northwest around Galesburg to the
lower 30s far southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014

Morning upper air and moisture channel satellite data shows minor
upper wave moving east across the northern US, approaching Great
Lakes. This system will drag a weak cold front into IL region on
early on Wednesday, coming through dry and bringing high pressure in
behind it.

Main system to affect area is currently off the west coast. Forecast
models bring a wave east from the offshore low, it tracking east
over the western state through day Thursday. southerly low level
flow expected to develop Thursday in response to the system exiting
the Rockies. Overrunning flow will develop precipitation by late
Thursday, but will not reach region till Thursday night, so dropped
Thursday pcpn. Pops spreading into the CWA Thursday night. With
temperature though near freezing, possibly some freezing rain in the
central and north central parts of IL Thursday night, before
temperatures rise Friday morning with the bulk of pcpn on Friday and
Friday night.

Track of the developing surface low is still a little uncertain, as
GFS brings low across KY and EUR across northern AL. Pcpn to
gradually pull out on Saturday, and will be faster if EUR solution
is right.

Weak northern stream system to again move over Great Lakes on
Monday, but have kept forecast dry at this time, again due to the
differences in the models on track and moisture.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014

Band of MVFR cigs continues to steadily track east across the
forecast area with the backedge just clearing the I-55 corridor
from KSPI thru KBMI. Based on the present movement it appears
KDEC should see the clearing trend between 0600Z and 0700Z and
over at KCMI btwn 0700z and 0800z. Still a bit concerned about
areas near and to the east of I-57 as satellite trends indicate
a bit of a slow down to the eastward trajectory of the clouds.
We should see VFR conditions across the area on Wednesday as
high pressure settles in from the northwest. Surface winds will
be southwest to west at around 10 kts overnight and as a trof
shifts thru the area, we expect winds to turn more into a west
to northwest direction on Wednesday with speeds averaging from
10 to 15 kts.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

959 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
SOUTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IN A UPGLIDE REGIME.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR
RAIN CHANCES MAINLY EARLY SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MONDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A NORTHWEST QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN 30S
AND 40S...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA COULD SEE LOWER
50S ON FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 959 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

RADAR IS PRETTY QUIET AT THE MOMENT AS FORCING AS WANED THIS
EVENING. HAVE THUS REMOVED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE MOMENT.
FORCING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT DECENT FORCING DOES
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THUS PUT HIGHEST POPS JUST BEFORE 12Z
AND KEPT THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LIKE EARLIER FORECAST HAD.

DID ADD DRIZZLE MENTION THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WHERE
POPS ARE BELOW 20 PERCENT. WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING DID
ADD SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD SO ONLY MADE
MINOR TWEAKS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

RAP13 SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT SUGGEST ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN IN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BE ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN TONIGHT. DO
NOT THINK THE TEMPERATURE WILL DROP TO 32 DEGREES AT MOST OR ALL
LOCALES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDY SKIES. PREFER THE
WARMER 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MOS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON OBSERVATIONS NORTH OF 70 AS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING EARLY ON. WENT WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS NORTH
AND GOOD CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST AND MOSTLY OVERNIGHT.

LAST LOOK AT OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING THE MESO NETWORK SUGGESTS A NEED
TO CONTINUE WITH A MIX FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
INDIANAPOLIS. SO...WILL NEED TO ADD A PRE-FIRST PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING...COVERAGE AND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
EXPECTED MODERATE RAINFALL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING TIMING OF A SURFACE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST WITH THE SURFACE WAVE
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS AND GEFS. HOWEVER...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WERE NOT WELL CLUSTERED. SO...PREFER A MODEL BLEND WHICH
WILL BRING THE SURFACE WAVE TO SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA AT 06Z
SATURDAY AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO OR NORTHERN KENTUCKY 12Z SATURDAY.
EVEN THE QUICKER 12Z GFS HOLDS ON TO SOME QPF ACROSS OUR EAST ON
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE ECMWF HAVING IT ACROSS OUR WHOLE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WENT CLOSER TO THE EURO WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS POSSIBLE AS SATURDAY GETS CLOSER. THE HEAVIEST RAINS
SHOULD SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND A HALF STORM TOTAL RAIN...WHICH SUCH GOOD LIFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE.

LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES.

PREFER MODEL MIX WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 12Z NAM AND ECMWF
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DESPITE THE
RAIN. AFTER THAT...BLEND LOOKS GOOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN
DURING THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AROUND MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...UPPER
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD THROUGH THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN GOING ON MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AT THIS
POINT...SYSTEM DOESN/T LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING
LIGHT QPF FOR THE MOST PART.

WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 911 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

IFR STRATUS HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT IN
LIFTING NORTH. CURRENT RAP DATA INDICATES THIS SHOULD OVERSPREAD
KIND AND KLAF OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS THEN GRADUALLY WORSENING
THEREAFTER.

00Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH JUST LINGERING DRIZZLE. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKING IN ABOVE
THE SHALLOW INVERSION TONIGHT...DRIZZLE REMAINS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY AT ALL TERMINALS AS THE SUB IFR CEILINGS SETTLE IN.
NOT SEEING MUCH DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED AT OBS REGIONALLY AT THIS
POINT...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING.

CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING AS
WELL. EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO DROP BELOW 500FT LATE AND REMAIN
THERE ALL DAY FRIDAY WITH A SATURATED COLUMN AND SHARP INVERSION
IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. WRF-NMM/ARW SPREAD STEADY LIGHT RAIN
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE MORNING...WITH HEAVIER
RAINFALL ARRIVING BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. VISIBILITIES WILL FALL TO 1SM AND MAYBE LOWER
WITHIN THE HEAVIER RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUED CEILINGS JUST A FEW
HUNDRED FEET OFF THE GROUND. A MISERABLE DAY ANYWAY YOU SLICE IT.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO EASTERLY BY EARLY EVENING WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/50
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...RYAN

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

911 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN 30S
AND 40S...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA COULD SEE LOWER
50S ON FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

LAST LOOK AT OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING THE MESO NETWORK SUGGESTS A NEED
TO CONTINUE WITH A MIX FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
INDIANAPOLIS. SO...WILL NEED TO ADD A PRE-FIRST PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING...COVERAGE AND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
EXPECTED MODERATE RAINFALL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES.

PREFER MODEL MIX WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 12Z NAM AND ECMWF
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DESPITE THE
RAIN. AFTER THAT...BLEND LOOKS GOOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 911 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

00Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

828 PM MST THU DEC 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM MST THU DEC 4 2014

LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE MAIN RAIN
SHIELD IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS IS CAPTURED
BY THE LATEST NAM...HRRR...AND RAP WHICH GRAZES THE THE FAR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA. SO REDUCED OR REMOVED POPS IN
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE STILL KEEPING HIGH
POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE OVERNIGHT MINS AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 426 PM MST THU DEC 4 2014

HAVE CLOUDY SKIES ALREADY AND IT IS NOT GOING TO START CLEARING
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. SO AM GOING TO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE SKY
COVER UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MST THU DEC 4 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR
OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST INTO KANSAS TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE TOO DRY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL
SOMETIME AROUND 06Z FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHERN FA. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
INDICATE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. SOUNDINGS DRY OUT BY 12Z
SO THE WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE BRIEF. SOME LOW LEVEL
SATURATION WITH A DRY LAYER ABOVE INDICATES THAT STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG MAY LINGER THROUGH 15Z AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE FA. PLAN TO GO
WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN FA WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
OF CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY WITH NIL POPS.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 30S WITH CLOUDY
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 50S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MST THU DEC 4 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE CWA
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTH. DECREASING
WINDS/CLEARING SKIES WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER LOWER SURFACE-BL TD VALUES ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH MAY
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. NAM/SREF CONTINUE TO SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR LOW VIS DESPITE MARGINAL BL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DUE
TO THE GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS I COULDNT RULE OUT PATCHY
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH. COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS SATURDAY (MID 40S). THERE COULD BE BETTER TEMP RECOVERY IN
THE WEST DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...SO WE
COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TEMPS
DUE TO POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY-THURSDAY...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE US WITH
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. DESPITE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
PROGRESSIVE WAVES WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW...DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

STRONGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE GOOD
FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED TO THE EAST DUE
TO THE FAST NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND QUICK TRANSITION TO W/NW FLOW
ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED EAST WITH LIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL COMPARED TO 00Z/06Z GUIDANCE. GEFS MEAN IS STILL SHOWING
LIMITED 0.01 POTENTIAL IN OUR EASTERN CWA...HOWEVER MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER IS EAST OF THIS. I COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR
FLURRY IN OUR EASTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER AT
THIS POINT DRY SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO GO.

ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAVORED SUNDAY-THURSDAY WITH
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FAVORED OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS. COLLABORATIVE BLEND FOR OUR CWA RESULTS IN HIGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE MID 50S...TO AROUND 60 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST THU DEC 4 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THICK CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN
PLACE UNTIL THE CLEARING TREND BEGINS LATER TONIGHT. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING ANY RAINFALL SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES. A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO BOTH SITES...ESPECIALLY AT KGLD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

810 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS MOVING OUT AS FORCING RELAXES
TEMPORARILY. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
AND WILL INCLUDE A LITTLE MORE OF A LULL IN THE ACTION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z AS
THE WARM FRONT DRAWS NEARER FROM THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE
LIKELY ALREADY BEEN ESTABLISHED THIS EVENING AND EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARM UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...SLOWEST IN THE NORTH WHERE
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY THE LONGEST.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

A WET FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID ATLANTIC CORRIDOR. AS THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS...A WEAK
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ABOUT THE AREA. THIS FRONT
EXTENDS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
FORM AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT FROM THE WEST. MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD...WITH FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN AS THE PARENT LOW EJECTS QUICKLY
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WE COULD SEE SMALL SURGE OF WARMER AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER NORTH AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH COOLER THAN CURRENT
READINGS...AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE WARM FRONT BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED TO
OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SURGE A BIT...WITH MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN OUR
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN OUR FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TO START OFF THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS
WAVE OF ENERGY WILL RESULT IN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
SHOULD RIDE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO 12Z SATURDAY AND EXIT BY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO PULL A COLD FRONT WITH IT...AND A LARGE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NE INTO CANADA.
WHILE MODELS ARE HAVING A LITTLE DIFFICULTY STILL MATCHING UP WITH
THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING AND COVERAGE...IT IS PRETTY WELL SETTLED
THAT A LARGE POOL OF MOISTURE/PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TO
START OUT 12Z SATURDAY...AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE PRECIP LINGERING SLIGHTLY LONGER INTO THE EVENING FOR
THE HIGHER UPSLOPE TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN KY.

A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
DAY SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY STRONG
INVERSION SETTING UP BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z SATURDAY...AT LEAST IN THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF INSTABILITY ABOVE THE
INVERSION. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NE SATURDAY
MORNING...CUTTING OFF ANY GOOD VEERING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO AID
IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE DAY SATURDAY. IT SEEMS AS THOUGH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THIS IDEA AS WELL.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO RIDE IN BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A POOL OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL REMAIN IN TACT BELOW A VERY STRONG
INVERSION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON
UNTIL DRY AIR FINALLY MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE SUNDAY...WITH SOME
VERY IMPRESSIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL LIKELY TAP INTO
THESE VERY LOW DEW POINTS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...DUE TO THEIR
ELEVATION...THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY FEEL THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF A LOW STRATUS DECK...WHICH WILL DESCEND
TOWARDS THE SURFACE...BEFORE MIXING OUT SUNDAY MORNING WHEN
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRY AIR FINALLY REACHING THE SURFACE. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT SOME PEAKS BETWEEN JACKSON AND DORTON /THOSE NOT QUITE
HIGH ENOUGH TO TAP INTO THE DRIEST AIR/ COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE STRATUS DECK /I.E. STRATUS DECK WILL TOUCH
THE SURFACE AS FOG/. OTHERWISE...THE VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN FOG FREE
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DESCENT MIXING...COLD TEMPERATURES...NE
WINDS...AND THE FACT THAT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL TO OUR
NE. SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE DRY AIR TAKING HOLD AT THE SURFACE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION AT THE
SURFACE...AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE PRECURSOR TO THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT IS
POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS ARE SHOWING A
WIDE ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER BY THIS
POINT. WILL RELY ON THE BLENDED SOLUTION AT THIS POINT
FORWARD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE...BOTH
IN THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...COLD
FRONT...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE AND HOW IT WILL
AFFECT THE JKL CWA. ACCORDING TO ALL THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTH...AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER...SHOWING MOISTURE MOVING
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...REACHING EASTERN KY MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER...WITH HIGHER
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...AND NO PRECIP MAKING IT OUTSIDE OF THE
GREAT LAKES. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THIS SYSTEM...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE
EXCEPTION WILL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN SOME
OF THE HIGHEST RIDGES MAY DROP TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING AND RAIN MAY
MIX WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES. THE SAME WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES DROP ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX IN.

GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION ONCE MORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING GENERALLY AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE AS
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH...AND THERE IS ALREADY
IMPROVEMENT OBSERVED UPSTREAM INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER LONGEST IN THE NORTH. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
LESS OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICK BACK UP TOWARDS DAWN. MORE SUSTAINED
SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

212 AM EST WED DEC 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST WED DEC 3 2014

PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
EASTERN KY TONIGHT. WSR- 88D RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS RIDING NE ALONG
THE SE BORDER OF TN/VA TONIGHT. HI- RES MODELS BACK THIS GENERAL
TREND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN
AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. ALSO
FRESHENED GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1105 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REFINE THE FORECAST T/TD GRIDS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. DID ALSO LOOK AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DECIDED TO
NIX THE IDEA OF SNOW BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND LOWER POPS. UPDATED THE
ZONES AND HWO TO REMOVE THIS MENTION. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH THE FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT BISECTING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE IS AFFECTING MUCH OF FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S WHILE 40S ARE FOUND TO THE WEST
ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. THIS FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE...PARTICULARLY ON
THE RIDGETOPS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE POPS AND WX
ALONG THE FRONT...BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE
FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12. ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE GRIDS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME DENSE PATCHES ON THE RIDGES. ALSO
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT PER THE LATEST
OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH AN SPS FOR THE FOG FOR OUR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES AND HWO.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA...WE
SHOULD SEE A SHORT BREAK IN THE RAIN. THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALREADY MOVING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES DOWN TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THEN BACK
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PAN HANDLE REGIONS. THIS
WAVE IS PROGGED TO BRING PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA BETWEEN 1 AND 3Z
THIS EVENING. IF THE WAVE HOLDS ON ITS FORECAST TRACK...THE BULK OF
RAIN WILL OCCUR IN OUR EASTERN TWO OR THREE TIERS OF COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. THE SLUGGISH FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND ROUND OF RAIN
SHOULD BE COMING TO END LATE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP NORTH OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE MODELS ARE NOT
IN THE BEST AGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL HAPPEN OR NOT. THAT
BEING SAID...DECIDED TO INCLUDE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
RIGHT AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR
THAT TIME FRAME WOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD THERE
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM. TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR TOMORROWS HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT FOR THE LOWS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...AND RIGHT AT NORMAL SOUTH OF THERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

AT UPPER LEVELS... MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...
WITH THE 500MB FLOW REMAINING ZONAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THEN TRANSITIONS INTO A RIDGE
TROUGH SPLIT OVER THE WESTERN/EASTERN CONUS BY THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THE TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN THESE TWO FLOW PATTERNS IS
WHERE MOST OF THE MODEL DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE...WITH THE ECMWF
STRENGTHENING AND OR AMPLIFYING THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS IT
CROSSES THE CONUS AND THE GFS BEING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE.
THOUGH...THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TRANSLATES INTO A FAIRLY WET PERIOD AT
THE SFC FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THE
VERY BEGINNING AND END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER THIS BREAK FROM PRECIP IS SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH
QUICKLY PUSHES EWD AND SOUTHERLY LOW-TO-MID LEVEL FLOW USHERS IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND
AS A LOW THAT EJECTED OUT OF THE ROCKIES MAKES ITS WAY INTO OUR
REGION. THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ON
SATURDAY BUT MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY
AS WELL. FOR THE END OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD THE REGION WILL GET A
BREAK FROM THE RAIN AS MONDAY/TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EST WED DEC 3 2014

SOME SITES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SEE SOME VFR/MVFR TONIGHT HOWEVER DO
THINK AS NIGHT GOES ON WILL SEE SOME IFR/LIFR AT MANY SITES. MUCH OF
THIS WILL BE DUE TO FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED AT SEVERAL SITES ALREADY
AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE DO THINK SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

103 AM EST WED DEC 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EST WED DEC 3 2014

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

1151 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1152 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014

Low clouds have persisted and temps are being held down as a
result. The models continue to try and decrease the low trop
moisture through tonight. But, until we see a more clear trend via
satellite, will go slower than any model suggests. We trended more
toward the RAP through the evening hours as it is the most
pessimistic.

High pressure will move across the plains, upper Midwest and
eventually Great Lakes region Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Tonight through Wednesday evening should be dry. We added back
very small chance PoPs to the SW 1/3 of the area after midnight.
Should be a minimal to trace type of event. But, from late
Wednesday night through Thursday morning, both the GFS and ECMWF
show a notable increase in 850-700mb moisture coincident with
increasing QG forcing and isentropic lift/WAA. Ignoring the QPF
forecast as a basis for precip. PoPs will be based on the models
tendency to underestimate light precip chances in this type of
setup, as both the moisture, albeit not terribly deep, is there
along with the forcing. As far as type, could be a mix of very
light rain/sprinkles/light sleet to start. Maybe a very brief
period of light freezing rain/sprinkles/light sleet Thursday
morning over the northern 1/2 of the area. Otherwise just light
rain chances through the day Thursday. Thursday night, rain
chances really ramp up especially after midnight, as mid level
energy pushes east from the central states.

Temps will be a blend of MOS, and base model output.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014

The longer term period starts off very wet. All models agree that
shortwave energy over the Plains will move northeast accompanied by
surface low pressure development and an influx of widespread
moisture (with precipitable water values rather high from 1.0 to
1.25 inches). With good isentropic lift associated with the
low-level jet, expect widespread rain during the day Friday and much
of Friday night. Rainfall amounts of over an inch are very possible,
especially along and south/east of the Ohio River. All of the
precipitation will be liquid in the form of rain, but model
soundings Friday night into Saturday morning suggest there could be
some heavier convective showers and perhaps a few rumbles of
thunder, mainly over parts of western KY as the exit region of an
upper jet streak approaches to enhance lift.

How long the rain lingers is unclear at this time, as model runs
show varying strengths and speeds of the system. GFS and ECMWF
maintain an open wave and slightly weaker surface development, while
the GEM is deeper and slower. Overall synoptic pattern favors more
of an open progressive wave, although models at times do suppress
systems a bit too much. For now, will keep system rather
progressive but allow scattered to numerous showers to linger
Saturday before ending later in the day as the system heads east.

Thereafter, the weather should become more benign with no other
significant weather systems expected to approach the region. Thus,
will keep dry weather in the forecast on Sunday and early next week.

Temperatures Friday with the rain will be a bit tricky. Rain should
hold readings down somewhat, especially over southern IL and
southwest IN, but good southerly flow should allow moderation well
up in the 50s over much of western/southwestern KY. High and low
temperatures should remain roughly within several degrees of normal
late in the weekend and early next week.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1151 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014

MVFR cigs will persist overnight, improving to low VFR between 15z
and 18z. Vsby should remain VFR, but a few brief dips to MVFR
overnight are not out of the question. Winds will be from the
southwest around 5 kts, gradually shifting to the northwest then
northeast through the day.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...RST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

339 PM EST WED DEC 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 3 2014

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
CENTERED FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A RDG OVER
WRN CANADA. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF IS TRACKING THRU
ONTARIO AND DRAGGING A COLD FNT THRU THE UPR LKS. WNW FLOW OF COLDER
AIR...WITH 12Z H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -17C AT INL...IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FROPA IS CAUSING SOME LES IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS. ALTHOUGH SOME MDT
SN SHOWERS IMPACTED THE FAVORED SN BELTS OVER THE W EARLIER THIS
AFTN WITH 3-6 INCHES OF SN FALLING JUST W OF BARAGA...DNVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND THE
ADVECTION OF DRY NEAR SFC AIR UPSTREAM IN NRN MN IS LIMITING THE
INTENSITY OF THE SN SHOWERS THERE NOW. THE MORE NMRS MULTIPLE BAND
SN SHOWERS ARE NOW STREAMING INTO THE ERN CWA. EVEN WHERE THE SN
SHOWERS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY...GUSTY WINDS THAT REACHED AS HI
AS 45-50 MPH/BLSN ARE RESULTING IN REDUCED VSBYS. LOOKING FARTHER TO
THE W...THERE IS A SFC HI PRES RDG OVER THE PLAINS...AND PWAT AS LO
AS 0.11 INCH AT ABERDEEN SDAKOTA /ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL/. DESPITE
THIS DRYNESS...THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON LES AND WIND
TRENDS/TOTALS AS WELL AS MIN TEMPS TNGT.

LATE TODAY/TNGT...PERSISTENT DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
CONTRIBUTING TO 12HR H5 HGT RISES FCST IN EXCESS OF 150M BTWN 18Z
TODAY AND 06Z TNGT/LOWERING INVRN BASE TO H9-850 AS WELL AS THE
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WL TEND TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SN SHOWERS E OF MUNISING INTO THE EVNG
BEFORE THE DRIER LLVL AIR ARRIVES THERE. CONSIDERED AN LES ADVY FOR
THIS AREA WITH THE GUSTY WINDS/BLSN AND FAVORABLE FCST UVV WITHIN
THE DGZ BTWN ABOUT 2-5K FT...BUT NEGATIVE DYNAMICS/DRY ADVECTION
NOTED EARLIER AS WELL AS EXPECTED SHIFTING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG SFC HI PRES FM THE PLAINS THAT WL LIMIT RESIDENCE TIME OF THE
BANDS INDICATES ADVY SN TOTALS WL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENUF TO JUSTIFY
THE HEADLINE. ISSUED A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES
TO DISCUSS THE LES/BLSN/POTENTIAL FOR MINOR LK SHORE EROSION AND
FLOODING ACCOMPANYING THE LARGE WAVES FCST TO BUILD AS HI AS 13-15FT
THIS EVNG. CLOSER APRCH OF SFC HI PRES WITH BACKING/DIMINISHING
WINDS TOWARD THE SW LATE WL END ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE FAR W.
ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS MAY DRIFT E FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THIS AREA
LATE...LIGHTER WINDS/DRY AIR WL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BLO ZERO NEAR
THE WI BORDER.

THU...AS THE UPR FLOW TENDS MORE ZONAL...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO
SHIFT E TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE UPR LKS WL BE DOMINATED BY RETURN
SSW FLOW BTWN THIS DEPARTING SFC HI AND FALLING MSLP IN THE PLAINS.
SOME OF THE MODELS...MAINLY THE 12Z GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CNDN
MODELS...GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN UNDER LARGER SCALE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. BUT SINCE STRONGER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAA AND SOME DVPA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING THRU
ONTARIO WL PASS TO THE N...THERE WL BE A CONTINUED FEED OF LLVL DRY
AIR AND THE LLVL FLOW WL REMAIN WEAKLY ACYC...WL TEND TOWARD THE
DRIER FCSTS. CONCERNED SOME LES COULD DVLP OFF LK MI DURING THE AFTN
WHEN A STRONGER SSW FLOW DVLPS THERE...BUT NAM FCST SDNGS SHOW LO
INVRN BASE NEAR H925 AND ENUF LLVL DRY AIR TO LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST WED DEC 3 2014

MAY SEE SOME SNOW OVER NRN/ERN UPPER MI FRI AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
NEAR OR N OF THE CWA. 00Z/02 ECMWF SHOWS THE MOST SNOW /STILL ONLY
0.10 INCHES OF QPF OR LESS/ AS IT HAS THE SHORTWAVE FARTHEST
S...WHILE OTHER MODELS BARELY HAVE ANY QPF. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE NERN CWA...LINGERING INTO FRI NIGHT OVER THE E AS
COLDER AIR AND NW LOW LEVEL WINDS RESULT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...BUT
STILL NOT SUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED LES.

1038MB SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA ON SAT...WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL WARMTH /850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 2C/ IN SW FLOW BEHIND
THE HIGH ON SUN. CONFIDENCE DECREASES SUN THROUGH NEXT WED AS MODELS
DISAGREE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A SHORTWAVE AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TIMING IS NOT AGREED ON...850MB TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO WILL LEAD TO LES BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH SOMETIME MON INTO TUE. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PATTERN BEHIND THE TROUGH. WILL USE CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST WED DEC 3 2014

ALTHOUGH A COLD AND GUSTY WNW FLOW WL PERSIST INTO THIS EVNG OVER
WRN UPR MI...DRY AIR MOVING IN FM MN WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LES
AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT CMX AND IWD. THE MORE EXPOSED CMX
LOCATION WL SEE STRONGER WINDS/MORE BLSN AND THE LOWER IFR VSBYS
PERSISTING LONGER INTO THIS EVNG. AS THE FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE SW
TNGT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GO VFR AT IWD. ATLHOUGH LLVL DRYING MAY
LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AT CMX...UPSLOPE NATURE OF THE
LONGER LASTING W WIND WL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
TIME UNTIL A WSHFT TO SW RESULTS IN SUSTAINED IMPROVEMENT ON THU
MRNG. ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY DIP AT TIMES TO MVFR THIS AFTN AT SAW UNDER
INCOMING THERMAL TROF...DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE WIND AND LLVL DRYING
WL RESULT IN PREDOMINANT VFR WX THERE. ALTHOUGH MID CLDS WL BE ON
THE INCRS ON THU...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR WL RESULT IN PREDOMINANT
VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST WED DEC 3 2014

STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE. A
EXITING LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A WEAKENING TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. W-NW GALES OF 35-40KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING /WITH WINDS DIMINISHING/...BEFORE IT
EXITS INTO S QUEBEC LATE THURSDAY. A LOW SLIDING ACROSS S CENTRAL
CANADA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
FRIDAY. BEHIND THIS LOW...A HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N PLAINS
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ORGANIZE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND POSSIBLY CROSS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

329 AM EST WED DEC 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI AT
415 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SNOW WITHIN A
MID-LEVEL FGEN BAND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP...AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS AREA OF SNOW NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS COLD FRONT BUT CONTINUE TO
GUST NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOLLOWED BY GALE
HEADLINES.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE...QG FORCING/MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL COMBINE WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
MODELS PLACE THIS BAND OF SNOW AT DIFFERENT LOCATIONS...BUT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT LEANING TOWARDS THE MESO
MODELS...WHICH WOULD CREATE THIS HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS FROM IRON
MOUNTAIN TO WHITEFISH POINT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND MANISTIQUE AS
WELL. WILL SHOW A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THESE AREAS...BUT COULD
SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AREAS IF THE
MARGINAL DELTA T/S ARE SUFFICIENT. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND CREATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM ONTONAGON TO THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT ACCUMS TO SUB ADVISORY LEVELS.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH-CENTRAL TO THE
MIDDLE TEENS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING...VEERING WINDS TO THE WNW WILL BE COLD AND DRY AIR
ADVECTING OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COLDER AS A RESULT. DELTA T/S WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WESTERLY SNOW BELTS...BUT
THAT WILL BE COUNTERACTED BY THE INCOMING DRY AIRMASS.
REGARDLESS...SNOW INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE FROM GRAND MARAIS
THROUGH WHITEFISH POINT IN THE AFTERNOON AS WIND DIRECTIONS VEER.
COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IN THE SNOW BELTS. HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS SOUTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 20S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST WED DEC 3 2014

NAM SHOWS A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER MOST OF CANADA WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER EASTERN CANADA 12Z THU. AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z FRI AND IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A TROUGH
FOR 12Z SAT.

IT LOOKS BORDERLINE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE AROUND -6C AND LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPERATURES ARE
AROUND 4C TO 5C. LOOKED LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE MICHIGAN
ENHANCEMENT ON FRIDAY OVER THE EAST AND PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN. OTHERWISE...LAKE EFFECT PCPN STAYS OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND
TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST 12Z
SUN INTO EASTERN CANADA WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON AND THIS
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN OVERHEAD. FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON
MON. WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT AND THEN HAVE SOME POPS
IN FOR SUN THROUGH MON WITH SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

UNDER WESTERLY WINDS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KCMX OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...THERE
WILL BE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR IFR VIS. AT KIWD...INITIAL VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MVFR LATER IN THE NIGHT AS LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS DEVELOP. MEANWHILE AT KSAW...THERE MAY BE SOME FLUCTUATION
BTWN VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT AS OBS/SATELITTE IMAGERY SHOW MVFR CIGS
TO THE W. TODAY...COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA ON
STRENGTHENING WNW WINDS BEHIND A TROF. AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX
TERMINAL...WINDS WILL GUST AOA 30KT. COMBINATION OF -SHSN/BLSN WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING THRU
EARLY AFTN AT KCMX. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR THEN MVFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE AFTN/EVENING AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
AT KIWD...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY UNDER LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS/OCNL -SHSN. AT KSAW...ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPING WNW WINDS SHOULD
FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR CIGS FROM LATE
MORNING UNTIL LATE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI AT
415 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

SOUTHERLY GALES ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE.
SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...ANOTHER W-NW GALE EVENT
WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BUT SINCE THE WEATHER
PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE...THE PASSAGE OF THE TRAILING HI PRES RIDGE
THRU THE AREA ON THU WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING/BACKING WINDS TO
THE SW FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. NO GALES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
LSZ248>251-265>267.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ244-245-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MPC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1159 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI AT
415 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI AT
415 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

A RELATIVELY FLAT ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WL KEEP ARCTIC AIR
LOCKED NORTH IN CANADA AND LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER UPR MI THRU
SAT. A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO REACH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT/MON AND BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SYNOPTIC
SNOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO THE AREA. TOO EARLY YET FOR
SPECIFICS AS THE MDLS HAVE DIFFERENCES ON THE SPEED AND DEPTH OF
THE SHORTWAVE TRFO AS WELL AS THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR THAT MAY GET
DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WHICH MAY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPS WL LIKELY END UP CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH BRIEF WARM-UPS
FOLLOWED BY BRIEF COOL DOWNS.

W-NW WINDS TO CONT INTO WED EVENING...BRINGING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS TO MUCH OF THE NRN SECTION OF UPR MI. KEWEENAW...HOUGHTON...
ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES TO BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ACCUMULATING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY THE LATTER 2 COUNTIES WHO HAVE THE LONGEST
FETCH. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO RANGE FROM AN INCH OR LESS NW
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR ERN SECTIONS.
THE LAKE EFFECT WL TEND TO WEAKEN OVER THE WRN U.P. LATER WED NGT
AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TO THE W-SW DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HI PRES. BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE ARRIVES...IT COULD BE A
GUSTY EVENING OVER THE REGION WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. THIS WL GENERATE BLOWING/DRIFTING
OF THE NEW SNOW. QUITE A RANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED WED NGT BETWEEN THE
DECREASING CLODUS/DIMINISHING WINDS OVER WRN SECTIONS AND MORE
CLOUDS/WIND OVER ERN SECTIONS. LOOK FOR READINGS TO RANGE FROM A
COUPLE OF DEGS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO INTERIOR WEST TO THE MID-TEENS
FROM GRAND MARAIS EWD.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THU...RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS UPR MI AS WINDS BACK TO THE S-SW. PRETTY STRONG
SURGE OF WAA INDICATED BY THE MODELS AS 8H TEMPS CLIMB FROM THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO(C). THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOT STRONG ENUF TO ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP...
HOWEVER THERE IS ENUF LIFT TO BRING MORE CLOUDS BACK INTO THE
PICTURE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF A
COLD START TO THE DAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS WL COUNTER THE WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT...THUS MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU NGT AS THE S-SW WINDS TO PERSIST AND
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY LIFTING MECHANISM ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS.
STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ANTICIPATED AND THIS WL HELP HOLD
TEMPS UP A BIT. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO SETTLE MAINLY INTO THE TEENS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON AND
VEER THE WINDS MORE TO THE W-NW BY 00Z SAT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE IS APPARENT AS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE OZARKS/TN
VALLEY INTERCEPTS ANY GULF MOISTURE. PREFER TO LEAVE THE FCST DRY
PER PREVIOUS SHIFT. MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30-35 DEG RANGE
WITH THE WARMER READINGS IN THE EAST.

A LARGE CANADIAN HI PRES TO BE OUR MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND PROVIDE A MOSTLY DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE A MINIMAL CHC OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO N-NW WINDS. 8H
TEMPS ONLY AROUND -8C OVER THE LAKE WOULD LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL.
TRAJS BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY SAT...SO DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
MAX TEMPS ON SAT TO AGAIN BE GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 DEG RANGE WITH
A FEW UPR 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST.

AFTER A QUIET SAT NGT...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEST WHERE A WEAK
SFC LOW/CDFNT AND SHORTWAVE TROF ARE PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
UPR MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. 12Z GFS/GEM ARE SLOWER
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND BARELY GET THE LEADING EDGE
OF PCPN TO FAR WRN SECTIONS BY 00Z MON. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF/UKMET
ARE FASTER OVERALL AND WOULD BRING THE PCPN CHCS THRU ALMOST ALL
OF UPR MI BY 00Z MON. DUE TO THE WIDE DISCREPANCY IN TIMING...HAVE
FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH BRINGS PCPN CHCS THRU
MOST OF UPR MI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS PCPN
TYPE...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS/GEM ARE CORRECT WHERE A MIX WOULD BE
POSSIBLE HEADED INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

THE CHCS FOR BOTH SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WL CONT INTO
SUNDAY NGT AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MUCH TOO
EARLY FOR ANY ACCUMULATION NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS BECOME MORE OF
AN ISSUE HEADED INTO MON AS WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME NW AND CAA
SWEEPS SWD SENDING 8H TEMPS DOWN INTO THE -10 TO -15 DEG RANGE(C).
HAVE PLACED HIGHER CHC POPS OVER THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS
FROM KEWEENAW EWD. THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO MON NGT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF HEADED INTO TUE AS
ANOTHER AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI AT
415 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-263-
264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPC
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MPC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1149 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THIS WEEK.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST THIS EVENING TO BUMP UP THE SNOW CHCS...
ESPECIALLY UP ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE CWFA. RADAR SHOWS THE
LIGHT SNOW IS ON SCHEDULE AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE UP NORTH
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS STARTING TO OVERLAP WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE BEST OVERLAP OCCURS
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE CWFA...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED MOISTURE
OCCURRING UP THERE DUE TO A CONTRIBUTION FROM THE LAKE. DELTA T/S
ARE RELATIVELY SMALL...SO NOT MUCH TEXTBOOK LAKE ENHANCEMENT GOING ON.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA QUICKLY
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A CHC OF SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE DOWN
SOUTH...FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE DEEPER MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR AN
UNSATURATED DGZ. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT OR LONG
DURATION IN NATURE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP BEING TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THIS WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PROGGED TO ARRIVE AROUND 01Z
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES PER THE HRRR. EXPECT ANY ACCUMS TO BE AN
INCH OR LESS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA.

THE DGZ DRIES OUT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AND THERE REMAINS SOME LIFT
IN THE SHALLOW STRATUS DURING AND AFTER THAT TIME...SO SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY MAJOR IMPACTS.

SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH. THIS SFC HIGH WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
PULLING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WE SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS STORM. SOME LIGHT RAIN...
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...MAY OCCUR NEAR I-94 OTHERWISE IT APPEARS
THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY.

AFTER A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
BRIEFLY BRING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH IN AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. THE
STORM AGGRESSIVELY GETS WOUND UP AND SHOULD GIVE US WINDY CONDITIONS
BY MONDAY...AND THEN TRANSFERS ENERGY INTO A NOREASTER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS REMAINS TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST...SO PCPN OVER SW MI LOOKS FAIRLY MINIMAL. COOLER TEMPS
AND SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE SYSTEM
LATER MONDAY AND CARRYING INTO TUESDAY WITH H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND -6C.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

IFR CONDITIONS HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE TAF SITES AS WAS
SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. ALSO THAT BAND OF SNOW OVER
WI HAS INDEED MOVED INTO THE MKG AND GRR TAF SITES. THE HRRR IS
DOING VERY NICELY WITH THIS SNOW BAND IN SHOWS THE SECOND BAND
REDEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CURRENT BAND THAN THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE I-96 TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. SINCE THE HRRR HAS DONE SO
WELL WITH THIS THIS EVENING I WENT WITH THIS IDEA.

THE FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER GRR SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW ONCE THAT
SECOND BAND DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AROUND 06Z. SO I TOOK THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE OUT OF THE GRR TAF AT THAT POINT. I DID NO ADD IT
TO THE 8I-94 TAF SITES BUT THEY MAY WELL HAVE A SIMILAR PROBLEM AS
GRR DOES NOW IN THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE DOES NOT GET OVERHEAD
THERE.

ALL OF THIS MOVES OUT RATHER DRAMATICALLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AS
DRY AIR SURGES IN AND AS WE SAW YESTERDAY... THE SKY CAN AND WILL
CLEAR OF LOW CLOUDS IF THE AIR BECOMES DRY ENOUGH... WHICH IT
SHOULD SO ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY 16Z WEDNESDAY.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...OSTUNO/JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

704 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. THE CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TURNS TO THE UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. ALL APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE FA AS THE TRUE FORCING WILL SHIFT FROM NEAR
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS COVER. THE QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER OR
NOT ANY LIGHT PRECIP COULD BE RUNG OUT OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
AN EVALUATION OF RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL
SATURATION BELOW 900H WITH A LITTLE LIFT PRESENT...WARRANTS THE
MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SNOWFLAKES. IN TERMS OF THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT STICKING WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM
AND RAP GUIDANCE FOR NOW. WITH LITTLE MIXING TOMORROW...AND VERY
MOIST LOW LEVEL PROFILES INDICATE LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER FOR MOST
OF THE DAY IN EASTERN AREAS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND A WARMER AIR MASS WILL MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE MIXED PRECIPITATION THREAT
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND THEN THE WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

COOLER HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THAT REMAINS
OFF SHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH MOVES ASHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE A NICE WARM LAYER ALOFT AS THE WARMER AIR LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL INCLUDE THIS THREAT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS
TIME. STILL A QUESTION HOW FAR EAST THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS THROUGH SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THE NAM_WRF HAS TRENDED DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH...MORE DYNAMIC...WHICH MAY PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. CONTINUED THE HIGH CHANCE POP TREND
FOR NOW. THE THALER QG FROM THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOWS DECENT
FORCING BEING GENERATED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. IF THIS CONTINUES...WILL
INCREASE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST...AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE THE SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN
SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH ON
DEVELOPING A SYSTEM OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE MID PART OF THE WEEK. BOTH
MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE
AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD YIELD MUCH WARMER AIR WITH A
GOOD SNOW MELT ANTICIPATED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES FROM THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE WITH MOSTLY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE ADVANCING MVFR STRATUS DECK IN
SOUTHERN MN. WE DID REMOVE THE CEILING AT KSTC...GIVEN THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE KSTC REMAINS JUST WEST /PERHAPS AS LITTLE AS 10
MILES/ OF THE MAIN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE AT
KSTC THOUGH. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT ONCE THEY MOVE
IN AND WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUD BASES SLOWLY LOWER WITH TIME.
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT KEAU AND KRNH...BUT NOT EXTREMELY
LIKELY EITHER.

KMSP...
WE`LL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LOW STUFF TONIGHT AND
WHETHER CLOUDS BASES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE MORNING
RUSH. THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE CLOSING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL
ARRIVE SOON...BUT WE SHOULD HANG BETWEEN 2000-3000FT FOR MOST OF
THE EVENING. WE TYPICALLY SEE LOWERING TO NEAR OR BELOW 1000FT IN
THESE SITUATIONS IN WINTER...SO THAT`S WHAT WE`RE SHOOTING FOR IN
THE 00Z TAF. NOT A CERTAINTY WE GET IFR CEILINGS...BUT MORE OFTEN
THAN NOT WE DO ON NIGHTS LIKE THIS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS E/NE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/-SN POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 10G20KTS.
MON...VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS EARLY. WINDS WNW/NW 10-15 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

856 PM MST THU DEC 4 2014

.UPDATE...

WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS TAPPING INTO SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM CENTRAL AREAS AROUND BILLINGS EAST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING ARE GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH SOME RIVER VALLEYS FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY EAST
COULD STILL HOLD SUB-FREEZING AIR. IN ADDITION COLDER AIR IN THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY NORTHEAST OF MILES CITY IS SLOSHING BACK
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT SOME FREEZING RAIN HAS
BEEN PUT BACK INTO THE FORECAST. FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS EVEN
THOUGH THE AIR TEMPERATURE IS ABOVE FREEZING THE ROAD TEMPERATURE
REMAINS BELOW FREEZING AND ANY RAIN MAY STILL FREEZE ON THESE
SURFACES. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK SCOPE OF THIS FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY BUT WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON IT TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF THE
AREA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS A BREAK IN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM BILLINGS
WEST...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO THE LIVINGSTON AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS SYSTEM HAS MORE COLD
AIR ALOFT AND LESS DOWNSLOPE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS A
RESULT EXPECT MORE SNOW THAN RAIN WITH IT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA
TOMORROW MORNING...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
ADDED SOME LOW POPS IN FOR THIS WEAK SYSTEM.

EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH A FEW BREAKS HERE AND THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME
WEAK COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT BUT THINK CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP SOME...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES. GUIDANCE
TRENDING TOWARD 10 DEGREES FOR LOWS IN MILES CITY AND BAKER
TONIGHT BUT THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
WEAK COLD ADVECTION. BUMPED LOWS UP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S OUT WEST DUE TO THESE ELEMENTS.

ICE JAMS...YELLOWSTONE COUNTY DES REPORTED SOME MINOR ICE JAM
FLOODING NEAR THE CHS REFINERY ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH A GOOD CHUNK OF ICE EXTENDING UP RIVER FROM
BILLINGS. DES IN CARBON COUNTY INDICATED THAT WATER LEVELS HAD
RECEDED SOME TODAY BUT THAT ICE WAS STILL JAMMED UP ALONG THE
CLARKS FORK. WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS SHOULD
HAVE WATER MOVING DOWN TRIBUTARIES AND INTO THE MAINSTEM RIVERS
SHORTLY. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
THIS WATER WILL PUSH ICE DOWNSTREAM AND COULD SEE MORE ICE JAM
FORMATION OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MAJOR FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME...BUT
PERIODIC LOW LAND FLOODING ALONG AREA WATERWAYS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
BET. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR ICE JAM FORMATION AND RISING WATER UNTIL ICE COMPLETELY
BREAKS UP. IT IS PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO PREEMPTIVELY MOVE
EQUIPMENT AND LIVESTOCK AWAY FROM LOW LYING AREAS ADJACENT TO
STREAMS AND CREEKS. IF ANY ICE JAM FLOODING IS NOTED PLEASE
CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND HAVE THEM RELAY REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. CHAMBERS

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FOLLOWED BY THIS RIDGE WEAKENING BUT ITS AXIS
SHIFTING EASTWARD. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA SHOULD STABILIZE
THE AIRMASS BUT MOISTURE IS STILL FLOWING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE
AREA. CURRENTLY RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
LATEST RUC MODEL ONLY MAINTAINS A COUPLE OF SIGNATURES OVERNIGHT
SO MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY.

ONE OF THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT DYNAMIC FORCING IS WEAK.
THE OTHER AREA IS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA
WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THINK THAT MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A RAIN SNOW MIX GIVEN THE MIXING THAT
OCCURRED TODAY AS OPPOSED TO ANY FREEZING RAIN.

TOMORROW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL CAUSE A LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. AIRMASS DOES DRY OUT
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT IT BRINGS A
DOWNSLOPE IT ALLOWS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SET IN AND A LEESIDE
TROUGH DOWNSLOPE PATTERN TO EVOLVE. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOME
COOLING OVER IDAHO ALLOWS A GAP FLOW PATTERN TO EVOLVE BUT
STABILITY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE OPTIMAL FOR WINDS BEING TOO STRONG.
BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOLLOWED BY
BRIEF RIDGING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF WINDS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AREAS. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL FLATTEN SATURDAYS RIDGE
BRINGING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
RIDGING BUILDS AGAIN FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING. A FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY BEFORE STRONGER RIDGING BUILDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A LARGE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY THE WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S...WITH A 60
DEGREE READING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN FROM ROSEBUD
COUNTY E THROUGH 06Z WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
IN NORTHERN MUSSELSHELL COUNTY. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL MAINLY BE
FOUND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE E OF KBIL.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS UNTIL 06Z WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE CRAZYS AND NE BIG HORNS.
AFTER 06Z...EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER ALL AREA
MOUNTAINS INTO FRI MORNING. VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION ON
FRI. LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS FRI AFTERNOON. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/038 024/045 031/045 026/045 030/046 030/049 032/050
22/W 00/B 10/N 00/B 12/W 11/B 11/B
LVM 034/046 031/048 032/044 029/046 034/045 034/047 034/048
43/W 01/N 11/N 00/B 12/W 11/N 11/B
HDN 025/037 018/044 026/044 022/044 025/047 028/049 025/050
22/W 00/B 00/U 00/B 01/B 11/B 10/B
MLS 020/030 018/039 027/040 020/040 025/043 027/046 028/047
31/B 00/B 11/B 00/U 01/B 11/U 10/B
4BQ 023/037 021/043 026/043 020/043 025/045 026/047 027/048
31/B 00/B 11/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B
BHK 019/029 016/036 025/038 020/036 023/043 028/044 030/045
30/B 10/B 11/B 10/B 01/B 00/B 00/B
SHR 027/043 022/046 025/045 022/043 026/047 026/049 026/050
22/W 00/B 10/U 00/U 00/B 10/B 00/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1121 AM CST WED DEC 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST WED DEC 3 2014

A WEAK AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ERN
MT WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND FUSE WITH THE MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH
ACROSS WRN NEB THIS MORNING. THE RESULT IS A DRY 1030MB HIGH WHICH
THEN MOVES EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW. BY 12Z
THURSDAY WARM AIR HAS RETURNED TO THE FCST AREA WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE OVER SCNTL SD. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN
TOWARD THE VERY DRY RAP MODEL WHICH PRODUCES DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS BASED SOLELY ON BIAS
CORRECTED MET...MAV AND ECS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO WHAT THE RAP
INDICATES...UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A BATCH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE COLORADO LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST TODAY. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE DENSER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WOULD MOVE MOSTLY
ACROSS NWRN NEB THIS AFTN WITH SKIES CLEARING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A SIMILAR STRATEGY IS IN PLACE TONIGHT FOR BIAS CORRECTED LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. THE STRONG RETURN FLOW SPENDS THE NIGHT WORKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO THE FEW
HOURS TOWARD MORNING WHEREBY WINDS WOULD DECOUPLE ACROSS SRN NEB BUT
REMAIN STRONG IN THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST WED DEC 3 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK WIND WILL
ADVECT 8 TO 10C H850 MB TEMPERATURES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. AS THIS AIR IS MIXED TO THE SURFACE...HIGHS SHOULD BE
WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH 45 TO 52F FOR
AREAS FARTHER EAST. DESPITE THE WARMER AIR...FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN CHECK...AS SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE ACTUALLY
MAKES IT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES.

FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A MILD
WEEKEND EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA. A STRONGER ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS COULD SEND A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY. THIS WILL BE BRIEF
HOWEVER...WITH A RAPID RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER PLUM OF WARM AIR
ALOFT MOVES EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST WED DEC 3 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BROKEN HIGH CIGS AOA 15 KFT CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW MODELS ARE
SHOWING A MVFR STRATUS DECK CREEPING NORTH TOWARD SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
KLBF TAF FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

511 AM CST WED DEC 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST WED DEC 3 2014

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST WED DEC 3 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST WED DEC 3 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS
COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

344 AM CST WED DEC 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST WED DEC 3 2014

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST WED DEC 3 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014

ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE WILL TRANSITION EAST
ONTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD MORNING...RESULTING IN
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. LOOK FOR SKIES TO TRANSITION
FROM SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AON 25000 FT AGL FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS
THIS FEATURE PASSES...INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 10000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AT UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

505 PM MST THU DEC 4 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

WIDESPREAD SWATHS OF PRECIPITATION ARE STILL IMPACTING NORTH
CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST WITH PRECIPITATION TURNING LIGHTER AND MORE SHOWERY
BETWEEN 05/0300-05/0700UTC. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY HOVERING
BETWEEN 9000 TO 10000FT...BUT COULD LOWER CLOSER TO 7500 FEET
BY THE EARLY MORNING WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE WANING AND TURNING
MUCH LIGHTER. BIG CONCERN IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIOD WILL
BE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED TO LOCALIZED IFR AND EVEN LIFR. THE
DENSER FOG AND LOWER STRATUS CLOUD DECKS WILL BE MOST COMMON AND
PREVALENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NEW
MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING FRIDAY WITH LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW STRAY AND LINGERING
SHOWERS.

.PREV DISCUSSION...322 PM MST THU DEC 4 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
BEFORE SLOW CLEARING DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND CONFINED TO AREAS ABOVE 9000 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE IN SATURDAY WITH THICK CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE LOWER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM HOWEVER AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE LIGHT.
SLIGHTLY ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST
SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR LOOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
ON SCOPE IN QUITE SOME TIME. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER WAVE PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS STILL POISED ALONG THE NM/AZ BORDER...AND MOVING QUICKLY
EAST. THE 18Z HRRR AND NAM AGREE PRECIP WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF DURING
THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS MOST AREAS...AND LINGER ALONG WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. CURRENTLY SNOW LEVELS ARE IMPRESSIVELY
HIGH WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING STILL AROUND 11KFT. COLD ADVECTION
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO 9KFT THIS
EVENING THEN ABOUT 8KFT BY SUNRISE. THAT TREND IS ALSO REFLECTED IN
THE MIN TEMP FORECAST WHICH RUNS ABOUT 5-15F ABOVE NORMAL.

WEAK RIDGING NOTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ALREADY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT STREAM OF THICK HIGH CLOUDS IS ON
THE MOVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED
MUCH LOWER THAN THIS CURRENT SYSTEM AND THE SOURCE REGION OF MID/
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT SO MUCH SUBTROPICAL...BUT STILL WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED FOR MODELS TO CONTINUE TRENDING DEEPER AND WETTER.
NONETHELESS...PRECIP MODE LOOKS MORE CONVECTIVE THAN STRATIFORM.
700MB COLD ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER AND THICKNESS VALUES
DECREASE BUT STILL SNOW LEVELS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH FOR DECEMBER.
LOCATIONS ABOVE 8KFT COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...WITH QPF ON
THE ORDER OF 0.10-0.20 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. ASSOCIATED PWAT VALES
FROM THE NAM AND GFS AT KABQ NEAR 0.50 INCHES.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY HOWEVER IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. SEVERAL
WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE ADVERTISED THROUGH NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING AND
STRENGTH ARE IN QUESTION. THERE ARE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES WITH
RETURN FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN EASTWARD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE STILL SHOWING A BIG STORM SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET WEATHER SYSTEM WILL EJECT EASTWARD TONIGHT LEAVING SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FT IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. MIN HUMIDITIES ON FRIDAY WILL FALL 14 TO 30 DEGREES AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL ALSO
BE WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION ON FRIDAY WEST OF THE EASTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES AS TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW TO 5 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE WEST WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREAS LOOK FAVORED FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION WITH SPOTTIER AND LIGHTER PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM SYSTEM WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2 DEGREES. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD
ACCUMULATE A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 9000 FT
AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ON WEST FACING SLOPES. THERE WILL BE
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY...BUT POCKETS OF
POOR VENTILATION WILL PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AGAIN IN MOST
PLACES SATURDAY.

ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS ALOFT SUNDAY BEFORE THE
FLOW TURNS ZONAL ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TWO DAY WARMING
AND DRYING TREND IN MOST PLACES WITH WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION BOTH
DAYS. THERE SHOULD BE POCKETS OF FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING
TUESDAY BEFORE A RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. TUESDAYS TROUGH COULD TRIGGER
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SE AREAS. AFTER SOME
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR
TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL A FEW DEGREES THEN REBOUND
WEDNESDAY.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-514.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

317 PM EST WED DEC 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE
CAROLINAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SURFACE FRONT STILL WEDGED
AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS...BUT OVERNIGHT ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS SINCE 1815Z TO 19Z A RAPID INCREASE IN THINNING
AND/OR CLEAR PATCHES AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY AS THE
OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS ON INFRARED IMAGERY HAS STARTED TO DIMINISH OVER
THE MOUNTAINS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MORE DIFFICULT IS THE TREND OF
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BASED ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...MOS GUIDANCE...
AND HRRR WRF OUTPUT.

WITH THE FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH EROSION OF LOW
CLOUDS ONGOING BUT WITH DEW POINTS STILL HIGH...THINK THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THIS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF ABOUT U.S. 64 WHERE DEW POINTS ARE WELL INTO THE
50S. NEITHER THE SREF ENSEMBLE VISIBILITY GUIDANCE NOR THE HRRR WRF
SHOW THIS...BUT THE PATTERN SEEMS TO FIT AND IS NOTED BY THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOS GUIDANCE. AS SUCH...NOTED PATCHY FOG FOR PART OF
THE NIGHT IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...UNDER AN AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY...WITH SOME CLEAR PATCHES AT TIMES ESPECIALLY NORTH AND MORE
AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE SOUTH...OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM
NEAR THE MID 30S TOWARD KTDF TO NEAR 45 IN THE FAR SOUTH.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST BY THE NAM AND THE GFS TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA IN THIS PERIOD. THE STRONGEST ON BOTH OF THOSE SETS OF
GUIDANCE IS THURSDAY...COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DURING THIS
TIME...OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THERE SHOULD BE 850MB
THETA-E TROUGHINESS...SO OVERALL MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED EXCEPT
IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE
FAR SOUTH ALTHOUGH LIFT IS FORECAST TO BE MEAGER WITH BASICALLY
850MB DIVERGENCE AND LITTLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...
OVERALL MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...WITH MORE OF THE MOISTURE INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO
VIRGINIA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW SLIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 300K SURFACE OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS NOTING MOISTENING OF THE 850MB LAYER
BUT WITH THE NAM SHOWING MORE MOISTENING OF THE MID-LAYERS. MOS
GUIDANCE POPS ARE CREEPING UP INTO THE 30S ESPECIALLY FROM RALEIGH
NORTH AND WEST...BUT GUIDANCE QPF STAYS JUST BELOW ZERO IN CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND HRRR WRF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE APPEARANCE OF ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. AVERAGING THE DRIER GFS
AND THE MORE MOIST NAM WITH THE HRRR AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SPRINKLES THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ABOUT KEXX TO KTDF.

1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST A CATEGORY ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY...BUT BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH AT LEAST SOME
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES
WHICH ARE VERY CLOSE BETWEEN THE MET AND THE MAV...FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S OVERALL. COULD SEE THE WARMER MAV MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES VERIFY THURSDAY NIGHT IF THERE ARE ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM FOR
A TIME THURSDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY EAST LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV
WEST AND TOWARD A BLEND OR THE COOLER VALUES EAST...37 TO 42.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY...DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EMANATING FROM A PARENT HIGH (1040+MB) OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ALOFT A S/W WILL BE LIFTING NEWD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL NC. THER COMBINATION OF A
COOL STABLE AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE AND THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A VARIABLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL
DAY OVER OUR REGION. THICKER CLOUDS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NW SHOULD
HOLD TEMPS BELOW 50 DEGREES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PARTIAL/FILTERED SUN
IN THE SE WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOWER OH VALLEY SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE FARTHER EAST.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE-BASED COOL DOME SHOULD
INITIATE SOME OVERRUNNING OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY. CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST-NW OF HIGHWAY 1. MAY SEE AREAS
OF FOG AS WELL. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 40S.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...S/W AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT E-NE. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
RESIDUAL CAD AIR MASS MAY HOLD ON LONGER IN THE FAVORED NW PIEDMONT
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. PLAN TO HOLD MAX TEMPS IN
THE TRIA AROUND 50...THOUGH IMMEDIATELY EAST-AND SOUTH OF THIS
REGION...TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MID 50S. IF RAIN SPOTTY
ACROSS THE SE...MAX TEMPS IN VICINITY OF CLINTON...FAYETTEVILLE AND
GOLDSBORO MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.

BEGIN TO SEE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS SWINGS THE TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE EVENING
WITH PRECIP CHANCES DWINDLING OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SLUGGISH...TRACKING AN UPPER LEVEL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...WHICH
MAINTAINS A CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR REGION...KEEPING SKIES OVERCAST
AND A THREAT FOR RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WELL
INTO THE NIGHT. DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE
WHICH MODEL IS MORE CORRECT AS THEY BOTH HAVE DISPLAYED DECENT RUN-
TO-RUN CONTINUITY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE PESSIMISTIC ECMWF FOR NOW
AND SEE IF MODEL TREND ONE WAY BY TOMORROW. WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD
COVERAGE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS UP A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS LOW-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW AS HUGE DISPARITY AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE THIS PERIOD. 12Z GFS DEPICTS A DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SUNNY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SLOWLY DRIFTS AN UPPER LEVEL
ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...MAINTAINING OVERCAST
SKIES...PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP AND COOL TEMPS ALONG WITH BRISK
CONDITIONS OVER OUR COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO PRESENCE OF A COASTAL LOW
OFFSHORE OF HATTERAS. PRESENTLY PREFER A WEAKER COUSIN OF THE 12Z
ECMWF AS SOME SEPARATION OF THE JET STREAMS EXPECTED. THIS YIELDS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH SOLID CHANCE FOR RAIN...MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL
AS MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING VARIED SOLUTIONS. DOES
APPEAR CERTAIN THAT WITH A L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S....HIGH
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE VARIABLE. GFS FAVORS LIGHT PRECIP
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM...WHILE ECMWF FAVORS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN DIVES
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT S/W SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SPINNING UP ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IN THE
PROCESS. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS MINIMAL (NO WORSE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE).

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM WEDNESDAY...

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD SLOWLY SHOW IMPROVEMENT...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNSET. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REALLY HIGH AS SOME
OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONTINUED MOISTURE SUCH THAT MVFR
CEILINGS COULD CONTINUE. HRRR WRF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR
GRADUAL EROSION OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD THAT
HAPPEN...DURING THE NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING HIGH AS LEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A LIGHT WIND...ANTICIPATE SOME AREAS OF FOG
WITH LOW CEILINGS SUCH THAT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
OCCUR...HIGHEST PROBABILITY AND LONGEST LASTING TOWARD KFAY WHERE
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES
FARTHER SOUTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH DRY AIR
SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL
BE PREVAILING VFR FOR THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST AND WEST SURFACE
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER WITH A WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED BY
12Z THURSDAY.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS... IF
IT OCCURS LIKELY MVFR CEILINGS...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A
FEW SPRINKLES OR A PASSING PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD KINT
AND KGSO. THE BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF RAIN
COMES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE MORE ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOWARD THE TRIAD AND KRDU. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...DJF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

312 PM EST WED DEC 3 2014

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...

TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY...

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM WEDNESDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...DJF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1224 PM EST WED DEC 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER A ONE DAY WARM-UP ON SATURDAY A NEW HIGH
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY...BRINGING BACK
CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 PM WEDNESDAY...VISIBILITIES HAVE RAPIDLY IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST HOUR WITH SKIES ALSO SCATTERING OUT...MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:

THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LESS THAN 24
HOURS AGO IS STALLED OFFSHORE. THE BOUNDARY IS EASILY DISCERNIBLE
IN 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY, LYING APPROXIMATELY 30 MILES
OFFSHORE. (THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY, STILL REPORTING NE WINDS,
IS VERY NEAR THE INFERRED FRONTAL POSITION.) LOW STRATUS AND FOG
COVERS THE AREA WEST OF THE FRONT AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES THROUGH 10 AM. 00Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS AGREE WITH LAST NIGHT`S 00Z MHX OBSERVED SOUNDING
SHOWING THIS IS A VERY SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS EXTENDING ONLY UP
THROUGH 1500 FEET AGL BEFORE SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN ALOFT.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW QUICKLY WE CAN BURN THROUGH THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS. SUN
ANGLES ARE NEARLY AS LOW AS THEY GET SO WE`LL DEPEND JUST AS MUCH
ON MECHANICAL MIXING FROM ABOVE AS DIABATIC HEATING FROM BELOW TO
GET THE CLOUDS OUT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ERODE THE MESS RATHER
QUICKLY AND THEREFORE SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM AND THE
ARW AND NMM VERSIONS OF THE NAM SHOW A SLOWER EROSION OF THE
CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. MY FORECAST
(BASED MOST CLOSELY ON THE 00Z OPERATIONAL AND NMM VERSIONS OF THE
NAM) ERODES CLOUDS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE
SANTEE RIVER WITH FORECAST HIGHS THERE IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT
HANGS ONTO CLOUDS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S. QUITE CONCERNING IS THE NEW 08Z RUN OF THE RUC MODEL
WHICH SHOWS TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANY CLEARING HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNSET.

THE NEXT SYNOPTIC HIGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS NEW COOL AIRMASS
SHOULD ARRIVE ON NORTHEAST WINDS THAT HAVE PICKED UP ENOUGH
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO KEEP CLOUDS AGAIN IN PLACE. LOWS SHOULD FALL
TO NEAR 50.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...NOT EXPECTING TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST JUST NORTH
OF NEW YORK THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPING
INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE RESULTING NE FLOW A THE SURFACE WILL
PROVIDE GENTLE ASCENT VIA UNDERCUTTING TO MAINTAIN AN ALREADY VERY
MOIST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE 1-4KFT RANGE. SOME HINTING AT THIS MOISTURE MIXING
OUT SOME BY FRIDAY BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY NEGLIGIBLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THIS IS LIKELY IN ERROR. BOTH DAYS LOOK FAIRLY
DREARY WITH SHALLOW MIXING THAT SHOULD CAP HIGH TEMPS TO WITHING A
FEW DEGREES OF 60. ABOVE THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST LAYER WILL BE A
LAYER THAT IS DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP HARD-PRESSED TO
COME BY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEDGE PRESENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE
SHORT TERM BREAKS DOWN ON SATURDAY JUST IN TIME FOR A COLD FRONT
TO ARRIVE. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MANAGES TO
FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THERE SHOULD BE
SOME REASONABLE INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES. THE AFTERNOON WILL
TURN OUT A BIT WARMER ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT MANAGE TO SEE
ENOUGH SUNSHINE. SOON AFTER THE SATURDAY NIGHT FROPA AN ALL-TOO-
FAMILIAR WEDGE SETUP RETURNS BY SUNDAY THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO
MONDAY IF NOT LONGER. WHILE THIS WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY
SIGNIFICANTLY COOL AIR...MOST PLACES WILL RETURN TO HIGHS JUST SHY
OF 60...IT MAY MEAN A CONTINUATION OF LITTLE SUNSHINE.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z..PESKY STRATUS MAY HANG IN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECTING CONTINUED CLEARING OVERALL. EVEN
THOUGH THE LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW...THE SUN ANGLE IS PROVIDING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR INSOLATION. EVEN IF THE ENTIRE ARE
SCATTERS OUT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IT RIGHT
BACK IN AFTER SUNSET. WENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIFR/VLIFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE AN
IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING...PARTICULARLY THE VISIBILITY AS A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE WEDGE WILL BUMP UP THE WINDS TO 5 KTS OR SO.
THURSDAY...LOOK FOR A SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH ONLY MVFR EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF WEDGES WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED THROUGH MONDAY WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS AND
SEVERAL CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL
4 PM FOR ALL WATERS. OTHERWISE FORECAST CONTINUES UNCHANGED.
LATEST OBS SHOW VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING
IS STALLED 30 MILES OFFSHORE. THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY, STILL
REPORTING NE WINDS, IS VERY NEAR THE INFERRED POSITION OF THE
FRONT. WEST OF THE FRONT INCLUDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS NE
WIND CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE
FOG.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ONE OF FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. HOW
QUICKLY THE COOL WEDGE AIRMASS WEST OF THE FRONT BREAKS DOWN WILL
DETERMINE WHETHER WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH TODAY OR REMAIN
NORTHERLY. MY BET IS THE WEDGE WILL BE TENACIOUS AND NOT BREAK
UNTIL FAIRLY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD CONTINUE WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE. SEA FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE LATE IN THE MORNING BUT VISIBILITIES MAY NOT IMPROVE
BEYOND OVER 2-3 MILES UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS LATE TONIGHT, POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN ZONES MAY BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AS WEDGE OVER LAND PINCHES GRADIENT JUST ENOUGH FOR
SOME 6 FT SEAS. THE COAST PARALLEL FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A GRADIENT
IN NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHT AND SO ANY FLUCTUATION IN
WIND DIRECTION COULD PUSH ADVISORY-WORTHY SEAS INTO OR OUT OF THE
FCST ZONES. THE ONLY CHANGE HEADING INTO FRIDAY WILL BE A GRADUAL
EASING OF THE GRADIENT BUT IT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO DROP THE
MARGINAL ADVISORY IF ANY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS ACQUIRE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORT TERM WEDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SEEP DOWN THE
EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE GRADIENT MAY RAMP UP
SUFFICIENTLY THAT HEADLINES OR ADVISORY BECOMES NEEDED AGAIN.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/TRA/MBB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1257 PM EST WED DEC 3 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WITH A SURFACE FRONT STALLED FOR NOW AGAINST THE
MOUNTAINS...AND A WEAK...DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. CLOUDS
WERE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA...AND WHILE OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING
THE VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG SLOWLY IMPROVING...THERE WAS A GOOD
INVERSION ON THE KGSO SOUNDING EMPHASIZED BY THE RELATIVE WARMTH TO
ABOVE 10C NEAR 900MB AND ON THE KRNK SOUNDING AS WELL SHOWING NEAR
10C AT 850MB. WITH THAT INVERSION IN PLACE...THINK THE CLEARING
SHOULD BE SLOW. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE CLEARING...WITH ITS BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATING NUMEROUS BREAKS LIKELY BY 18Z...WHILE THE NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE MORE BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. THE LATTER
IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST HRRR WRF GUIDANCE...AND FOR THE
UPDATE IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST WAS A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC AND
HELD ONTO MORE CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON EVEN TOWARD THE SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. WHILE THE RAP FORECAST A MODEST MID-
LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON...LIFT
WAS WEAK AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WEAK AS WELL...SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE BELOW SLIGHT SAVE FOR STILL LIMITED POTENTIAL OF
SPOTTY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS WELL ON THE COLD END OF
THE GUIDANCE SUITE BUT CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EDGED
THE FORECAST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL
PLAIN...ANTICIPATING CURRENTLY LATE-DAY HIGHS APPROACHING 60 IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND 60 TO 65 ELSEWHERE. WITH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE...SEEN EVEN ON THE LOWEST GATE OF THE WSR-88D VWP AND
IN PROFILER DATA...ANY EVEN THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST SHOULD RESULT
IN QUICK WARMING. -DJF

TEMPS THIS EVENING WILL BE A FUNCTION OF CLOUD COVER...FOLLOWED BY
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SURGES INTO CENTRAL NC FROM
THE N/NW. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FROPA MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS
03-06Z...WITH A GOOD 6-9 HOURS OF COLD ADVECTION PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM ~40F NEAR THE VA BORDER TO MID/UPPER 40S
NEAR THE SC BORDER. -VINCENT

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

LOW OVERCAST PREVIOUSLY PROGGED TO DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH (OR FROM
SW-NE) MID TO LATE THU MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT APPEARS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY TO OCCUR DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW /MARGINAL WARM ADVECTION/ ATOP THE SHALLOW COLDER AIRMASS
ADVANCING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. REGARDLESS...BROKEN/
OVERCAST CEILINGS AT ~15 KFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND...ULTIMATELY...LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S AND LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S. -VINCENT

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK...

A WHOLE HOST OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE INTO THE
WEST COAST... THEN ENCOUNTER A A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AS THEY COME
EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. IT IS STILL
UNCLEAR IF ANY PHASING OF THE TWO JETS (THE POLAR JET AND THE ACTIVE
SUBTROPICAL JET) WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING
THIS PERIOD. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO REMAIN THE
MORE DOMINATE FLOW... WITH AT LEAST SOME PHASING OF THE FLOW THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

REGARDLESS... THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A
RELATIVELY DOMINATE SUBTROPICAL FLOW OVER OUR REGION FAVORS A STORM
TRACK THAT WOULD DELIVER THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AT LEAST THE NW QUADRANT OF OUR
REGION... IF NOT MOST FOR AT LEAST SOME DECENT RAINFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

WE WILL BEGIN THE FORECAST BASED ON HPC MODEL PREFERENCES INCLUDING
THE LATEST 00Z/03 DECEMBER OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS RUNS THAT
INDICATE THE PROGRESSION OF THE WET SYSTEMS FROM WEST TO EAST BUT
KEEP SOME SEPARATION IN THE TWO JET STREAMS INTACT THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ANOTHER CAD EVENT FOR THE
WEEKEND POSSIBLY ENHANCED AND PROLONGED BY THE MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY LATER SATURDAY... THEN
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS FRIDAY... THEN
OVERCAST CONDITIONS SAT-SUN WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPS LIKELY
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE BY 5-7 DEGREES DURING THE DAY SAT AND SUN
YIELDING MOSTLY MID 40S TO MID 50S NW TO S.

BY MON-WED... THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE BY EARLY
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR CLEARING WITH A BIT MILDER TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM WEDNESDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...DJF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1000 AM EST WED DEC 03 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK...

BY MON-WED... THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE BY EARLY
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR CLEARING WITH A BIT MILDER TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS AND VISBYS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
AIR DAMMING WEDGE IN PLACE ERODES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN ASSOC/W
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS TYPICAL
WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF SAID
IMPROVEMENT REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...ESP AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS.
ONCE CEILINGS LIFT TO MVFR/VFR THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THEREAFTER AS ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES/SURGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE N/NW...ADVECTING A DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL NC. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AT 5-10 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 00-06Z FRI...
BECOMING NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT BY 12Z FRI.

LOOKING AHEAD: BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE PERSISTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP THU NIGHT/FRI
AND PERSIST (POSSIBLY) THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE. -VINCENT

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...DJF/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

922 AM EST WED DEC 3 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HANGING IN THERE
THIS MORNING MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW OF OUR INLAND SITES
HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES LIFT TO AROUND A MILE OR TWO...SO IT DOES
LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE FURTHER GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. KEEPING DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
AS A RESULT. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE AND WIDESPREAD
SURFACE INVERSION IN A VERY SHALLOW POOL OF COOL AND MOIST AIR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEDGE PRESENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE
SHORT TERM BREAKS DOWN ON SATURDAY JUST IN TIME FOR A COLD FRONT
TO ARRIVE. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MANAGES TO
FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THERE SHOULD BE
SOME REASONABLE INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES. THE AFTERNOON WILL
TURN OUT A BIT WARMER ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT MANAGE TO SEE
ENOUGH SUNSHINE. SOON AFTER THE SATURDAY NIGHT FROPA AN ALL-TOO-
FAMILIAR WEDGE SETUP RETURNS BY SUNDAY THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO
MONDAY IF NOT LONGER. WHILE THIS WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY
SIGNIFICANTLY COOL AIR...MOST PLACES WILL RETURN TO HIGHS JUST SHY
OF 60...IT MAY MEAN A CONTINUATION OF LITTLE SUNSHINE. .SHORT TERM
/THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...NOT
EXPECTING TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPING INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE RESULTING NE
FLOW A THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE GENTLE ASCENT VIA UNDERCUTTING TO
MAINTAIN AN ALREADY VERY MOIST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE 1-4KFT RANGE. SOME
HINTING AT THIS MOISTURE MIXING OUT SOME BY FRIDAY BUT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY NEGLIGIBLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THIS IS LIKELY
IN ERROR. BOTH DAYS LOOK FAIRLY DREARY WITH SHALLOW MIXING THAT
SHOULD CAP HIGH TEMPS TO WITHING A FEW DEGREES OF 60. ABOVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOIST LAYER WILL BE A LAYER THAT IS DRY ENOUGH TO
KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP HARD-PRESSED TO COME BY.

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z..EVERYONE IS PRETTY MUCH SOCKED IN THIS MORNING WITH
NEAR AIRFIELD MINIMUMS. THIS FOGGY LAYER IS QUITE THIN...WITH THE
VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 1K FEET. EVEN
SO...WITH THE LOW SUN ANGLE IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF SOLAR
INSOLATION TO MIX THIS STUFF OUT...LIKELY IN THE 15-16Z RANGE. A
VFR AFTERNOON IN STORE AS THE WEDGE RECEDES. THE FOG/STRATUS COULD
RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...LIKELY NOT AS DENSE
AS THIS MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATE THU THROUGH FRI...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS THROUGH SAT MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
AGAIN ON SUN.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM WEDNESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH 10 AM. FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT WELL INLAND...BUT
MAY PERSIST OVER THE WATERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AT
LEAST...SO CONSIDERING EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THROUGH THEN. LATEST
OBS SHOW SEAS IN THE 3 FT RANGE IN A VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105>110.

MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/TRA/MBB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

558 AM EST WED DEC 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER A ONE DAY WARM-UP ON SATURDAY A NEW HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY BRINGING BACK CLOUDY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO IS STALLED OFFSHORE. THE BOUNDARY
IS EASILY DISCERNIBLE IN 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY, LYING
APPROXIMATELY 30 MILES OFFSHORE. (THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY,
STILL REPORTING NE WINDS, IS VERY NEAR THE INFERRED FRONTAL
POSITION.) LOW STRATUS AND FOG COVERS THE AREA WEST OF THE FRONT
AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES
THROUGH 10 AM. 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE WITH LAST NIGHT`S 00Z MHX
OBSERVED SOUNDING SHOWING THIS IS A VERY SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS
EXTENDING ONLY UP THROUGH 1500 FEET AGL BEFORE SOUTHWEST WINDS
BEGIN ALOFT.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW QUICKLY WE CAN BURN THROUGH THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS. SUN
ANGLES ARE NEARLY AS LOW AS THEY GET SO WE`LL DEPEND JUST AS MUCH ON
MECHANICAL MIXING FROM ABOVE AS DIABATIC HEATING FROM BELOW TO GET
THE CLOUDS OUT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ERODE THE MESS RATHER
QUICKLY AND THEREFORE SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM AND THE
ARW AND NMM VERSIONS OF THE NAM SHOW A SLOWER EROSION OF THE
CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. MY FORECAST
(BASED MOST CLOSELY ON THE 00Z OPERATIONAL AND NMM VERSIONS OF THE
NAM) ERODES CLOUDS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE
SANTEE RIVER WITH FORECAST HIGHS THERE IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT
HANGS ONTO CLOUDS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S. QUITE CONCERNING IS THE NEW 08Z RUN OF THE RUC MODEL
WHICH SHOWS TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANY CLEARING HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNSET.

THE NEXT SYNOPTIC HIGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS NEW COOL AIRMASS SHOULD
ARRIVE ON NORTHEAST WINDS THAT HAVE PICKED UP ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO KEEP CLOUDS AGAIN IN PLACE. LOWS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 50.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...NOT EXPECTING TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPING INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THE RESULTING NE FLOW A THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE GENTLE
ASCENT VIA UNDERCUTTING TO MAINTAIN AN ALREADY VERY MOIST LAYER JUST
ABOVE THE INVERSION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE
1-4KFT RANGE. SOME HINTING AT THIS MOISTURE MIXING OUT SOME BY
FRIDAY BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY NEGLIGIBLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP THIS IS LIKELY IN ERROR. BOTH DAYS LOOK FAIRLY DREARY WITH
SHALLOW MIXING THAT SHOULD CAP HIGH TEMPS TO WITHING A FEW DEGREES
OF 60. ABOVE THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST LAYER WILL BE A LAYER THAT IS
DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP HARD-PRESSED TO COME BY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEDGE PRESENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE
SHORT TERM BREAKS DOWN ON SATURDAY JUST IN TIME FOR A COLD FRONT TO
ARRIVE. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MANAGES TO FLOW
INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THERE SHOULD BE SOME
REASONABLE INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES. THE AFTERNOON WILL TURN OUT
A BIT WARMER ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT MANAGE TO SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE.
SOON AFTER THE SATURDAY NIGHT FROPA AN ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR WEDGE SETUP
RETURNS BY SUNDAY THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY IF NOT LONGER.
WHILE THIS WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COOL AIR...MOST PLACES
WILL RETURN TO HIGHS JUST SHY OF 60...IT MAY MEAN A CONTINUATION OF
LITTLE SUNSHINE. .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...NOT EXPECTING TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPING INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THE RESULTING NE FLOW A THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE GENTLE
ASCENT VIA UNDERCUTTING TO MAINTAIN AN ALREADY VERY MOIST LAYER JUST
ABOVE THE INVERSION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE
1-4KFT RANGE. SOME HINTING AT THIS MOISTURE MIXING OUT SOME BY
FRIDAY BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY NEGLIGIBLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP THIS IS LIKELY IN ERROR. BOTH DAYS LOOK FAIRLY DREARY WITH
SHALLOW MIXING THAT SHOULD CAP HIGH TEMPS TO WITHING A FEW DEGREES
OF 60. ABOVE THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST LAYER WILL BE A LAYER THAT IS
DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP HARD-PRESSED TO COME BY.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z..EVERYONE IS PRETTY MUCH SOCKED IN THIS MORNING WITH NEAR
AIRFIELD MINIMUMS. THIS FOGGY LAYER IS QUITE THIN...WITH THE VAD
WIND PROFILE SHOWING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 1K FEET. EVEN SO...WITH THE
LOW SUN ANGLE IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF SOLAR INSOLATION TO MIX
THIS STUFF OUT...LIKELY IN THE 15-16Z RANGE. A VFR AFTERNOON IN
STORE AS THE WEDGE RECEDES. THE FOG/STRATUS COULD RETURN TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...LIKELY NOT AS DENSE AS THIS MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATE THU THROUGH FRI...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS THROUGH SAT MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ON SUN.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA YESTERDAY MORNING IS STALLED 30 MILES OFFSHORE. THE FRYING
PAN SHOALS BUOY, STILL REPORTING NE WINDS, IS VERY NEAR THE INFERRED
POSITION OF THE FRONT. WEST OF THE FRONT INCLUDING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS NE WIND CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ONE OF FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. HOW QUICKLY
THE COOL WEDGE AIRMASS WEST OF THE FRONT BREAKS DOWN WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH TODAY OR REMAIN NORTHERLY. MY
BET IS THE WEDGE WILL BE TENACIOUS AND NOT BREAK UNTIL FAIRLY LATE
IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHOULD CONTINUE WITHIN
20 MILES OF SHORE. SEA FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATE IN THE
MORNING BUT VISIBILITIES MAY NOT IMPROVE BEYOND OVER 2-3 MILES UNTIL
MID AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS LATE TONIGHT, POSSIBLY APPROACHING
20 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN ZONES MAY BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AS WEDGE OVER LAND PINCHES GRADIENT JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME
6 FT SEAS. THE COAST PARALLEL FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A GRADIENT IN
NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHT AND SO ANY FLUCTUATION IN WIND
DIRECTION COULD PUSH ADVISORY-WORTHY SEAS INTO OR OUT OF THE FCST
ZONES. THE ONLY CHANGE HEADING INTO FRIDAY WILL BE A GRADUAL EASING
OF THE GRADIENT BUT IT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO DROP THE MARGINAL
ADVISORY IF ANY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105>110.

MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

544 AM EST WED DEC 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER A ONE DAY WARM-UP ON SATURDAY A NEW HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY BRINGING BACK CLOUDY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW QUICKLY WE CAN BURN THROUGH THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS. SUN
ANGLES ARE NEARLY AS LOW AS THEY GET SO WE`LL DEPEND JUST AS MUCH ON
MECHANICAL MIXING FROM ABOVE AS DIABATIC HEATING FROM BELOW TO GET
THE CLOUDS OUT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ERODE THE MESS RATHER
QUICKLY AND THEREFORE SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM AND THE
ARW AND NMM VERSIONS OF THE NAM SHOW A SLOWER EROSION OF THE
CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. MY FORECAST
(BASED MOST CLOSELY ON THE 00Z OPERATIONAL AND NMM VERSIONS OF THE
NAM) ERODES CLOUDS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE
SANTEE RIVER WITH FORECAST HIGHS THERE IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT
HANGS ONTO CLOUDS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S. QUITE CONCERNING IS THE NEW 08Z RUN OF THE RUC MODEL
WHICH SHOWS TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANY CLEARING HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNSET.

THE NEXT SYNOPTIC HIGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS NEW COOL AIRMASS SHOULD
ARRIVE ON NORTHEAST WINDS THAT HAVE PICKED UP ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO KEEP CLOUDS AGAIN IN PLACE. LOWS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 50.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...NOT EXPECTING TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPING INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THE RESULTING NE FLOW A THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE GENTLE
ASCENT VIA UNDERCUTTING TO MAINTAIN AN ALREADY VERY MOIST LAYER JUST
ABOVE THE INVERSION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE
1-4KFT RANGE. SOME HINTING AT THIS MOISTURE MIXING OUT SOME BY
FRIDAY BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY NEGLIGIBLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP THIS IS LIKELY IN ERROR. BOTH DAYS LOOK FAIRLY DREARY WITH
SHALLOW MIXING THAT SHOULD CAP HIGH TEMPS TO WITHING A FEW DEGREES
OF 60. ABOVE THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST LAYER WILL BE A LAYER THAT IS
DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP HARD-PRESSED TO COME BY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEDGE PRESENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE
SHORT TERM BREAKS DOWN ON SATURDAY JUST IN TIME FOR A COLD FRONT TO
ARRIVE. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MANAGES TO FLOW
INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THERE SHOULD BE SOME
REASONABLE INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES. THE AFTERNOON WILL TURN OUT
A BIT WARMER ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT MANAGE TO SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE.
SOON AFTER THE SATURDAY NIGHT FROPA AN ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR WEDGE SETUP
RETURNS BY SUNDAY THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY IF NOT LONGER.
WHILE THIS WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COOL AIR...MOST PLACES
WILL RETURN TO HIGHS JUST SHY OF 60...IT MAY MEAN A CONTINUATION OF
LITTLE SUNSHINE. .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...NOT EXPECTING TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPING INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THE RESULTING NE FLOW A THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE GENTLE
ASCENT VIA UNDERCUTTING TO MAINTAIN AN ALREADY VERY MOIST LAYER JUST
ABOVE THE INVERSION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE
1-4KFT RANGE. SOME HINTING AT THIS MOISTURE MIXING OUT SOME BY
FRIDAY BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY NEGLIGIBLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP THIS IS LIKELY IN ERROR. BOTH DAYS LOOK FAIRLY DREARY WITH
SHALLOW MIXING THAT SHOULD CAP HIGH TEMPS TO WITHING A FEW DEGREES
OF 60. ABOVE THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST LAYER WILL BE A LAYER THAT IS
DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP HARD-PRESSED TO COME BY.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z..LIFR CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING WIDESPREAD IN LOW STRATUS
AND FOG. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WHERE VLIFR
SHOULD DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY AT THE ILM AIRPORT. AFTER
DAYBREAK...ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
LATE MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATE THU THROUGH FRI...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS THROUGH SAT MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ON SUN.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ONE OF FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. HOW QUICKLY
THE COOL WEDGE AIRMASS WEST OF THE FRONT BREAKS DOWN WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH TODAY OR REMAIN NORTHERLY. MY
BET IS THE WEDGE WILL BE TENACIOUS AND NOT BREAK UNTIL FAIRLY LATE
IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHOULD CONTINUE WITHIN
20 MILES OF SHORE. SEA FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATE IN THE
MORNING BUT VISIBILITIES MAY NOT IMPROVE BEYOND OVER 2-3 MILES UNTIL
MID AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS LATE TONIGHT, POSSIBLY APPROACHING
20 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN ZONES MAY BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AS WEDGE OVER LAND PINCHES GRADIENT JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME
6 FT SEAS. THE COAST PARALLEL FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A GRADIENT IN
NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHT AND SO ANY FLUCTUATION IN WIND
DIRECTION COULD PUSH ADVISORY-WORTHY SEAS INTO OR OUT OF THE FCST
ZONES. THE ONLY CHANGE HEADING INTO FRIDAY WILL BE A GRADUAL EASING
OF THE GRADIENT BUT IT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO DROP THE MARGINAL
ADVISORY IF ANY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105>110.

MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...TRA/SGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1235 AM EST WED DEC 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. A
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...FOG IS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST
AND I ANTICIPATE I WILL NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SOMETIME
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAISED FORECAST LOWS BY SEVERAL DEGREES AS
DENSE LOW CLOUDS AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL NEITHER ALLOW RADIATIONAL
COOLING OR ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 930 PM FOLLOWS...

COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA
WITH LIGHT COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST. STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION AS WARM MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL HELP TO LOCK
IN MOISTURE WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AS
NE SFC WINDS DIMINISH AND SHIFT EAST. MODELS SHOWING SHWRS AND BEST
LIFT SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHIFTS EAST...BUT MOIST ON
SHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP MOISTURE FLOWING IN OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. SOME AREAS MAY SEE DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES TO THE
LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFF THE COAST WED
WILL GENERATE RETURN FLOW...WEAKENING THE IN SITU WEDGE DURING THE
DAY. AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO. PERIOD OF RETURN
FLOW WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING
GEORGETOWN/WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT...SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE EVENT FOR THU/THU NIGHT. MID LEVEL
PROGRESSIVE FLOW LIMITS THE COLD AIR INTRUSION...THUS LIMITING THE
STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE...BUT A CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO IS ON TAP. ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT
IS ON THE WEAK SIDE BUT SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT COULD PRODUCE SOME PATCHES OF
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER DO NOT THINK MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE AN ISSUE.
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL HELP KEEP LOWS ABOVE CLIMO EACH NIGHT
WITH WED NIGHT BEING THE WARMER OF THE 2 NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE REGARDING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST DUE TO DISPARITIES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE. HAVE WEIGHTED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE MORE RECENT AND
WARMER GFS...WHICH GIVES US A LONG TERM MARKED BY NEAR-NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-NORMAL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES.
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PERIOD WILL SEE A RELATIVELY FLAT
UPPER PATTERN INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER TROUGH ON MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. LACK OF STRONG COLD OR WARM ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR A
MILD EARLY DECEMBER. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
ADVECT IN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AT THE UPPER LEVELS SO EXPECT A LONG
TERM MARKED BY PERIODS WITH A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS PRESENT. THIS
WILL HELP MODERATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...KEEPING THEM ABOVE
AVERAGE AND IN THE 40S OR LOWER 50S. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE
THROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z..LIFR CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING WIDESPREAD IN LOW STRATUS
AND FOG. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WHERE VLIFR
SHOULD DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY AT THE ILM AIRPORT. AFTER
DAYBREAK...ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
LATE MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATE THU THROUGH FRI...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS THROUGH SAT MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ON SUN.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED THROUGH 10 AM
THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST.
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE VEERING MORE EASTERLY. THIS UPDATE INCORPORATES
WIND SPEED/DIRECTION FROM THE LATEST HRRR AND RUC
MODELS...DISCARDING THE GFS AND NAM WHICH INITIALIZED TOO FAR EAST
WITH THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 930 PM
FOLLOWS...

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE DISTANT NORTH SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THIS EVENING WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS WEAKEN. LOW STRATUS DECK
EXPANDING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST COVERS MOST LOCAL WATERS RUNNING OUT
BETWEEN 20 AND 40 NM.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WED WILL LEAVE AN ILL
DEFINED GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT LATE WED NIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS ON THU.
INITIALLY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT BUT AS THE HIGH NOSES
DOWN THE COAST THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KT LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES MORE
DEFINED. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT WED INTO WED NIGHT. INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW THU AND THU NIGHT WILL PUSH SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
THU WITH POTENTIAL FOR 6 FT THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED. HIGHEST SEAS AT
4 TO 5 FT ARE LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF A LONG FETCH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A
STEADY NORTHEASTERLY WIND. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT OTHERWISE NO STRONG COLD SURGES ARE LIKELY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY SURF CITY TO S SANTEE RIVER
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY.

NEAR TERM...RGZ/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...SGL/TRA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

923 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES CROSS INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BE FOLLOWED A BY LONGER
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. NOT MUCH CHANGE GIVEN THE CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
AND UPPER DISTURBANCES KEEPING THE THREAT OF PRECIP. STILL WILL KEEP
FRZ RAIN ADVISORY FOR POCAHONTAS COUNTY OVERNIGHT FOR MARGINAL ICING
EVENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRECIP EXPANDING NE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL A
SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER LAYERS TO OVERCOME...BUT
IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR THIS TO ERODE ONCE THE PRECIP MOVES IN.
EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS SE OH AND N WV WHERE THE DRY LAYER IS A BIT
MORE ROBUST. USED LATEST HRRR FOR TIMING OF HIGH POPS IN THRU THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO INSERTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MIXING IN ON
THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS NE KY/ W WV/ AND SE OH. THIS MIX CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE N MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES BY...CWA LEFT WITH WARM FRONT THIS EVENING WITH
SHRA REGIME MAINLY N HALF OF CWA. WILL WATCH FOR A SURFACE LOW TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE TN VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT APPENDAGE DEVELOPING
INTO AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO SE OH.
THERE MAY BE AN EXTENDED LULL IN PRECIP ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV
FRIDAY WITH THESE AREAS IN WARM SECTOR.

AFTER INTERROGATING HI RES MODELS AND SREF PROBS...ELECTED NOT TO
EXPAND THE FRZ RA ADVISORY TO RANDOLPH. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF MIX
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TONIGHT TO FALL AS
RAIN. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FRZ RA ACROSS FAR EASTERN RANDOLPH
BUT DEFINITELY NOT A COUNTY WIDE AVG. IN FACT...THERE IS CONCERN
THAT TEMPS MAY WARM ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR RAIN EVEN OVER POCAHONTAS
COUNTY. HI RES NAM IS BY FAR COOLEST OF THE MODELS...KEEPING A SUB
FRZ THIN LAYER AROUND H9. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3 KFT SHOULD GET INTO
WARM LAYER SUCH THAT RISING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. IT SHOULD
BE QUITE MILD TOMORROW IN WARM SECTOR WHERE MID TO UPPER 50S WERE
CODED UP ACROSS SW VA UP TO I64. DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT PROBABLY
ALSO SENDS EKN INTO THE LOW 50S.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. KEEP THE HIGH POPS
GOING THROUGH THE SATURDAY PERIOD...DECREASING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS. EXPECTING A BATCH OF HEAVIER RAIN TO COME THROUGH IN
THE 09Z SATURDAY TIME FRAME WITH 850MB THETA E CONVERGENCE
PEAKING. AFTER ALL IS SAID AND DONE...1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM EXITS.

CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY SUNDAY AS THE FLOW WILL NOT GO TO
ITS TYPICAL NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY. LOOKING AT A NORTH NORTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QUICK DRYING ALOFT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME SUN ON
SUNDAY. CIRRUS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE ON ITS WAY IN QUICKLY AS IT ORGANIZES TO THE WEST.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE LOWLANDS...30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE A HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO WV SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A COLD AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE...THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...CAPABLE TO
PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING WARMING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED FEW DEGREES FROM HPC GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

FOR MONDAY...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE IN THE VERY LOW LEVELS WHILE A H500 WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE AREA. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...MORE ALONG THE
GFS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF BRINGS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR THE
SAME TIME PERIOD WITH SUCH A WEAK WAVE. BELIEVE ECMWF IS OVERDOING
CAA SO PREFERRED THE GFS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TURN NORTHWEST WITH SOME CAA
FROM BOTH MODELS. FIGURE A GOOD SET UP FOR UPSLOPE PCPN. THE GFS
BRINGS THE 0C LEVEL AROUND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHILE IN THE
ECMWF...THE 0C LINE GOES WAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. WENT WITH A BLEND
SOLUTION EXPECTING CHANCE POPS WITH FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR MIX PCPN
OVER THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS...AND RAIN ELSEWHERE. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO TAMPER OFF ON TUESDAY KEEPING CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND DRY
WEATHER SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST OH...EAST.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WENT CLOSE TO HPC TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
03Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RA...TENDING TO
TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AS THIS FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN STILL EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT NOT AT EKN. BECOMING GENERALLY IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBY BY 06Z ESPECIALLY WHERE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF TO DRIZZLE AND
FOG.

A SFC LOW WILL THEN ORGANIZE OVER TN VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER WARM
FRONT DEVELOPING INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH MOST OF THE RA N AND W OF A
HTS/CRW/CKB LINE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ALONG AND EAST OF
HTS-CRW-CKB LINE TO MVFR CEILINGS BY 16Z...WITH IFR HANGING ON IN
OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST OHIO.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND
DRIZZLE MAY VARY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND IN ANY IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE FRI 12/05/14
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EST 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY L M M M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN RAIN...WITH
FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...MAINLY E OF THE
CHEAT RIDGE...INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ046.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

650 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES CROSS INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BE FOLLOWED A BY LONGER
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRECIP EXPANDING NE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL A
SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER LAYERS TO OVERCOME...BUT
IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR THIS TO ERODE ONCE THE PRECIP MOVES IN.
EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS SE OH AND N WV WHERE THE DRY LAYER IS A BIT
MORE ROBUST. USED LATEST HRRR FOR TIMING OF HIGH POPS IN THRU THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO INSERTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MIXING IN ON
THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS NE KY/ W WV/ AND SE OH. THIS MIX CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE N MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE LOWLANDS...30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WENT CLOSE TO HPC TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ALLOW PRECIP TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RA...TENDING TO TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT NOT AT EKN. BECOMING GENERALLY IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF TO DRIZZLE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND
DRIZZLE MAY VARY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND IN ANY IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY.

DATE FRI
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H M H H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN RAIN...WITH
FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...MAINLY E OF THE
CHEAT RIDGE...INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ046.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

1252 AM EST WED DEC 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEST-SOUTHWEST MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW AHD OF DIGGING TROF WORKING FROM
THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. DEEP MOISTURE IS OFF
TO OUR EAST BUT 00Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
AN INVERSION AT 825 MB. IN WEAK WAA PATTERN AREA OF DRIZZLE DEVELOPED
GENERALLY ALONG AND SE OF I-71. RAP SHOWS WEAK OMEGA IN THIS LOW LEVEL
MOIST LAYER BUT THIS LIFT DIMINISHES AND SHIFTS EAST BY 06Z. HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY DENSE FOG BUT EXPECT IMPROVEMENT
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN WITH
SOME INCREASE IN WINDS...TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE OR STAY QUASI-STEADY
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO REDUCED. THERE
IS A SUBTLE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG ARE PRESENT. NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE VISIBILITIES ARE GENERALLY THREE MILES OR HIGHER. AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE SOME ALTHOUGH SOME
FOG IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISSUED A SPS FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA FOR A COUPLE
HOURS THIS EVENING AND ADDED FOG MENTION INTO THE HWO.

MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING AND
HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR. DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DIFFICULTIES AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING. EXPECT ANY
DRIZZLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE FA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER SOME RISES IN TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF
THE FA.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE FA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY HOWEVER
SOME DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP OFF INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PRIMARILY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN
TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE
WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION AND CHANGES THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE OVER TO ALL RAIN. DECIDED NOT TO MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS
TIME WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION ONSET AND HOW FAST
THE WARM AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INVERTED TROUGH AND STATIONARY FRONT TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE WILL
BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE WARMER
TEMPERATURES CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL RAIN. THE LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER SHOULD BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN MAY CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES GRADUALLY EASTWARD.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH COLD
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM SO WENT
WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN OF
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN COLD
ADVECTION UNDER A NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. LOW
LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES.
ALSO...SOME DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. AM
EXPECTING LOW CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT ABOVE THE IFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.
THEREAFTER...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE
TROUGH...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS PROCESS SHOULD
HELP SCOUR AND/OR PUSH THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EAST BETWEEN 18Z AND
20Z. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE WEST ARE EXPECTED AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

857 PM PST TUE DEC 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PEAK THIS EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME MOISTURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING...SPREADING LIGHT ACCUMULATING RAIN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN NEAR FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
NEAR SALEM AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FREEZING RAIN. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A LOW OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST WEDNESDAY DRIFTS NORTH TO NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE
THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT FOR THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND THE
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BEFORE A STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIP IS
STARTING TO POP UP IN THE FORECAST AREA AS SEEN IN LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY THIS EVENING. LOOKING FURTHER SOUTH...3 HR PRECIP AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM 0.02" TO 0.15"...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTH
OREGON CASCADES. RAIN HAS REACHED ROSEBURG THE PAST FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING...WITH 0.01" REPORTED SO FAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO PUMP THE MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AND 00Z MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL REACH AT LEAST THE CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z NAM IS SHOWING MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH
CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE ACTUALLY. PRECIP WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS
IT LIFTS NORTH INTO OUR AREA.

AS FAR AS THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN GOES...CURRENT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF AS QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
CLOUD BAND. WITH THE MAIN BAND STARTING TO BREAK UP A BIT AND WITH
WET BULB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
STILL ABOVE FREEZING...HAVE REMOVED THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IN
THE VALLEY FOR TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING LIKE SPOTS ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE STALLING JUST SOUTH
OF EUGENE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS STILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT IT FURTHER
NORTH CLOSER TO SALEM JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF
ANY FRONTOGENESIS OR SOME SORT OF TRIGGER...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR THE BOUNDARY TO REACH SALEM BUT WILL MAINTAIN
SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

EAST WINDS ALSO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH THE CURRENT KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE
GRADIENT AT -10.7 THIS EVENING. HAVE LOWERED OVERALL EAST WIND GUSTS
FOR TONIGHT...EXCEPT A FEW LOCAL SPOTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRONGER
GUSTS INCLUDING THE TYPICAL SPOT OF CROWN POINT...WHICH HAS BEEN
GUSTING AROUND 90 MPH THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. OVERALL EXPECT GUSTS
AROUND 60-65 MPH TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER
GUSTS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE. /27

BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP WED NIGHT AS THE REMAINS OF THE
SURFACE LOW DRIFT INLAND. THE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL GORGE FLOW DOES NOT
TOTALLY GO AWAY. THUS...COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE GORGE
AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST THU. CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION WED NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY SHOULD END ANY
FREEZING RAIN THREAT THERE. SOME COLD AIR POCKETS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN
THE N OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS WED NIGHT FOR A CONTINUED -FZRA
THREAT. BY THU ANY -FZRA THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL GORGE
AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY. PRECIP LOOKS TO DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND
FRI MORNING. THE NEXT FRONT REACHES THE COAST FRI AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...THE GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE LATE FRI
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE SPLITTING FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT. THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR
OUT THE LAST OF THE COLD LOW-LEVEL AIR IN THE GORGE AND UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY. 500 MB HIGH PRES AMPLIFIES SAT...WHICH COULD END UP
DRY. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH BELOW-CLIMO POPS BUT FURTHER SHIFTS MAY
HAVE TO CUT BACK EVEN MORE IN THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND. BIGGER MODEL DIFFERENCES SUN AS THE GFS KEEPS THINGS
REASONABLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SUN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS 12Z SUN. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE BOARD AT THIS HOUR WITH A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOMEWHAT STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF KEUG. HRRR MODEL WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE COARSER MODELS DO BRING THE WARM PROCESS PRECIP
NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. MOST TERMINALS WILL STAY VFR
EXCEPT FOR KEUG AND PERHAPS KSLE. MET MOS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH CIGS DROPPING TONIGHT. ASSUMING THE BOUNDARY MOVES A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH AS MODELS INDICATE...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
KEEP LOWEST LEVELS NEAR KSLE AND KEUG STIRRED UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT
IFR CIGS FROM DEVELOPING AND MAINLY BRINGING A HIGHER END MVFR
DECK NORTH FROM THE BOUNDARY. KSLE WOULD LIKELY EASILY REMAIN VFR.
OTHERWISE...MAIN ISSUE WILL CONTINUE TO BE EASTERLY WINDS
AFFECTING KTTD AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KPDX. WINDS SHOULD BE
PEAKING NOW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT AT
KTTD AND UP TO 30 KT AT KPDX. WINDS GENERALLY EASE LATE OVERNIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK OFFSHORE UPPER WAVE PUSHES NORTH CLOSER TO
04/00Z AND COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN AND A LOWER DECK INTO PLAY
ACROSS THE AREA BUT STILL SEEMINGLY HIGH END MVFR AT WORST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY GUSTING TO
25 KTS. OCCASIONAL 30 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 12Z WITH
WINDS GENERALLY DECREASING THEREAFTER. VFR CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH
04/06Z ALTHOUGH A DECK AROUND 050 MAY BE IN PLACE BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. /JBONK

.MARINE...GAP WINDS CERTAINLY DOMINATING THE SCENARIO RIGHT NOW
WITH GUSTS PRIMARILY 25 TO 30 KT. AS SUCH...HAVE INCLUDED THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS INTO THE ADVISORY FOR WINDS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LONGER ACROSS THE NORTH SO EXTENDED ALL THE NORTHERN
WATERS THROUGH 9 AM. CENTRAL WATER WINDS STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO
EASE NO LATER THAN 4 AM AND HAVE LEFT THAT AREA ALONE IN THE
ADVISORY THROUGH GAP WINDS NEAR NEWPORT AND CLOSER TO FLORENCE
WILL HAVE LOCAL INFLUENCE FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS.

THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEAKENS AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES ON
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
AND SEAS. ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND COULD POTENTIALLY BRING
GALES. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST EXISTS IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS AS THEY ARE FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FT UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...WHEN SEAS
BUILD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. SEAS COULD REMAIN AROUND
10 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEKEND. JBONK/MCCOY

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

327 PM CST WED DEC 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...A CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WE MAY NOT SEE ANY APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE AGAIN
UNTIL TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY UPSTREAM
OVER AR. THIS PRECIP IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS IN AGREEMENTS WITH SHOWING ENHANCED MOISTURE DEPTH TOWARD 12Z
WITH THIS IMPULSE. HRRR FURTHER CONCURS...BUT RAINFALL LOOKS MORE
PATCHY AND NOT WIDESPREAD. WILL THEREFORE GO A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THEN...ON FRIDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL EAST OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF IT.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RAINFALL CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AS THE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW INCREASES.

IN THE EXT FCST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID STATE EARLY
SATURDAY. SOME POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THE DAY. A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN
PLAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN...THE EURO MODEL SHOWS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SE AND TAKING A TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID
STATE. ASSOCIATED 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS
DRY AND CONSALL TEMPS ARE WARMER. THUS...WILL OPT TO INCLUDE LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR MON TN AND TUES. IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH
SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...PREVAILING AIRMASS BEHIND THIS WEEKENDS STORM
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT COLD. OVERALL...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 40 54 51 67 / 30 50 40 70
CLARKSVILLE 37 50 48 67 / 40 50 40 70
CROSSVILLE 39 55 50 61 / 30 50 40 60
COLUMBIA 42 58 52 68 / 30 40 40 60
LAWRENCEBURG 42 61 53 68 / 30 30 40 60
WAVERLY 39 53 49 68 / 30 50 40 70

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

904 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LIGHT VIS SHOWING A PLETHORA OF CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH ALSO SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON THE RADAR. GPS MET SITE
SHOWING MOISTURE VALUES RUNNING AROUND ~1.55" WHICH IS ABOUT +2 SD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS UPDATE WILL BE
THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG. CURRENT WEBCAMS FROM GALVESTON SHOWS SEA
FOG RIGHT OFF THE COAST WITH SOME CAMERAS SHOWING HEAVY FOG.
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO ADVECT THE SEA FOG INLAND. WINDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO TURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOULD REALLY HELP TO
ADVECT THE FOG INLAND. SREF AND NAM DEWPOINT DEPRESSION FIELDS
ALONG WITH HRRR VIS PRODUCT ALL SHOWING FOG MOVING INLAND TONIGHT.
DUE TO THIS WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH CURRENT
CONFIGURATION. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG INLAND AND LEFT
MENTION OF DENSE CLOSER TO THE COAST. HAVE ALSO BROUGHT DOWN HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO TOMORROW GIVEN THE CLOUDS IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDING. THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE WITH HAVE TO
CAREFULLY WATCH THIS THOUGH AS 850 TEMPS ARE AROUND 14 C WHICH IS
PRETTY WARM. 23

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VEERING LIGHT EASTERLIES WILL AID IN ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRONT
TO ADVANCE INLAND TOMORROW. A SOUPY ENVIRONMENT WITH MANY SITES
ALREADY FALLING INTO IFR (INTERIOR) TO LIFR (COASTAL) CATEGORICAL
CEILINGS WITH DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES WITHIN INLAND HAZE/-SHRA
OR DUE TO BEING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF SEA FOG ALONG THE COAST.
IF SEA FOG FORMS OVER MORE WIDESPREAD SHALLOWER NEARSHORE GULF AND
BAY WATERS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IT WILL ADVECT INLAND AND TANK
DECKS/VSBYS TO V-LIFR THROUGH MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...A LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZE MAY
MIX OUT LOWER LAYERS ENOUGH TO KEEP MANY IN THE IFR RANGE. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SCATTERING OUT BEHIND THIS WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
WITH PERIODIC WAA SHOWERS OR LIGHT DRIZZLE PASSING THROUGH FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL AND ALL...MAJORITY
OF PERIOD WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER WITH BRIEF BREAKS TO VFR (IN TANDEM
WITH SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED SOUTHERLIES) DEPENDENT UPON INLAND FRONTAL
MOVEMENT. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014/

DISCUSSION...
21Z OBS AND VIS SATELLITE STILL CONFIRM A LAYER OF SEA FOG
STRETCHING FROM OFFSHORE SABINE PASS THROUGH GALVESTON BAY AND
ADJACENT WATERS. THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN THE GULF
AND WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...FOG SHOULD ADVECTION INTO THE
COASTAL COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. LATEST RUNS OF THE
RAPID REFRESH SUPPORT THIS IDEA SO WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT AS IS FOR BOTH THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND UPPER TX COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS SHOULD TURN SOUTHERLY TOMORROW SO EXPECT FOG TO
BREAK UP MORE SO THAN TODAY. BUT FOG MAY RETURN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS MAY DECREASE OR
BECOME MORE EASTERLY WHICH WILL SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT 500MB FOR 12Z SHOWED A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH S CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS THIS
DISTURBANCE ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE S ROCKIES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM REACHING C PLAINS BY 12Z FRI AND HAVING IT
SHEAR OUT A BIT. AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE AREA AND BE THE
FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS PERHAPS AN ISO THUNDERSTORM. MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES AND AGREE WITH THIS TREND. FORECAST
WILL KEEP MAINLY 20/30 POPS FOR FRI/SAT TIME FRAME WITH THE FRONT
COMING INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING SO IT MAY TAKE
A WHILE FOR ANY FOG/SEA FOG TO ERODE LATE SAT INTO SUN. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRIER AIR TO MIX OUT THE FOG DURING THIS TIME.
FORECAST WILL ALSO CARRY 20/30 POPS INTO SUNDAY AS A SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM. BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW MON/TUE IS A BIT MORE ZONAL PER GFS/ECMWF BUT
BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED BY MID WEEK ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF.
ECMWF HAS A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WHERE THE
GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. GIVEN RECENT PATTERNS THINK THE ECMWF IS
MORE ON THE RIGHT TRACK AND HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM PREVIOUS
CANADIAN MODEL RUNS. WITH THIS IN MIND...THERE SHOULD BE A DAY OR
TWO PRECIP FREE BUT MAY GET RAIN CHANCES BACK LATE WED INTO THUR
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO TX UNDERNEATH AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES AS WELL SO
THINK LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR EXTENDED FORECAST
TEMPS WITH SOME MORE WEIGHT ON THE ECMWF. 39

MARINE...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT IN FOG REDUCED VISIBILITIES
THE FOG IS AGAIN BEGINNING TO THICKEN. WILL MAINTAIN THE MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS THROUGH 12Z BUT MAY NEED A FEW HOURS
EXTENSION FOR THE GALVESTON BAY AREA AS IT WILL BE THE LAST TO
FEEL THE IMPACTS OF THE WARM FRONT AND HAS THE COOLER WATERS
FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. WINDS
RELAX BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES SO SOME THREAT FOR SEA/RADIATION
FOG AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OR MORE LIKELY EVENING TO CLEAR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A BRIEF
STINT OF SCEC WINDS MAY DEVELOP POST FRONTAL BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS. NORTHEAST FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE
EASTERLY MONDAY AND BY MONDAY NIGHT OR PERHAPS TUESDAY THE FOG
THREAT BEGINS TO RISE AGAIN. 45

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 76 58 68 51 / 20 30 30 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 63 75 63 72 54 / 20 30 30 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 63 69 63 69 58 / 20 20 20 30 20

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

DISCUSSION...23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS LUBBOCK TX

1116 AM CST WED DEC 3 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPS ROSE QUICKLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS...WITH LUBBOCK REACHING 61 DEGREES AT 11 AM. THIS WAS
DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE PANHANDLES. THE FRONT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND SHOULD CLEAR OUR SRN ZONES BEFORE
STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. WE UPPED HIGH TEMPS ACROSS OUR
SRN AREAS...AND TRIMMED THEM BACK SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
THICK CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING.

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS ADVANCING WESTWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AT KCDS AS EARLY AS 18 UTC. KLBB AND KPVW
SHOULD REMAIN VFR TODAY. TONIGHT...EXPANDING COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS
AND FOG WILL BRING A STRONG CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THE
TERMINALS WITH A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF LIFR AS WELL EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE CEILING AND VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
17 OR 18 UTC THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST WED DEC 3 2014/

AVIATION...
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING 24 HOURS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH AN MVFR CLOUD LAYER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KCDS BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST WELL INTO OR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP
AT KCDS MAINLY LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT WITH LESSER CHANCES AT BOTH
KPVW AND KLBB LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. WE HAVE REMOVED THE PREVIOUS
TEMPO AT KCDS FOR LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LASTING UNTIL 14Z
THIS MORNING AS DEW-POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
CLOSED WHILE THE HRRR TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF GRADUALLY ON AREAL
COVERAGE OF REDUCED VISIBILITY THIS MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
REASSESS VISIBILITY ISSUES FOR LATER FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST WED DEC 3 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND OFF TO THE
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH AN ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS THIS MORNING...PERHAPS THINNING OR CLEARING
BRIEFLY AT TIMES TODAY...BEFORE THICKENING AGAIN TONIGHT. A MODEST
MOUNTAIN WAVE APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER IN HIGH CLOUD
COVER THOUGH MAY WEAKEN OR RELEASE BRIEFLY BEHIND A PASSING WAVE
LATER THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...WE EXPECT A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT TO SAG THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING BRINGING A 180
DEGREE WIND SHIFT. HIGHER DEW-POINTS SURGING NORTH THROUGH THE
ROLLING PLAINS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...AND WE EXPECT
MOISTENING TO WORK UP ONTO THE CAPROCK AS WELL BY LATER TODAY. WE
HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AND EXPANDED A BIT ONTO
THE CAPROCK. PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THROUGH MID MORNING FOR A QUICK WARM-UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES DEPENDING ON IF HIGH CLOUDS THIN OR NOT.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY HAS BOUNCED AROUND CONSIDERABLY AS
SOLUTIONS HAVE STRUGGLED TO LATCH ONTO ABOVE FEATURES...THOUGH WE
HAVE SOME FAVORITISM TOWARDS THE LATEST TRENDS BEING WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS. IN SPITE OF RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE WITH SEVERAL
SENSIBLE ELEMENTS TODAY...WE EXPECT BENIGN CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
OVER-ALL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...ALBEIT NONE OF THEM APPEARING
TO BE TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS JUNCTURE...WHILE MAINTAINING A
FAIRLY STEADY STATE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS SET TO SLIDE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THURSDAY EVENING. THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A DAMPENING OF THIS IMPULSE...BUT MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHBOUND MOVING
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...AS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING TAKES PLACE
DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...A DRY POCKET BELOW
ABOUT H70 MAY PROVE TO BE A MITIGATING FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND...THUS ALLOWING FOR ONLY VIRGA SHOWERS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT HEADS ASHORE
THE PACIFIC COAST TONIGHT...BUT FEEL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SPREADING EAST THURSDAY EVENING/EARLY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE/OMEGA PROFILES.

INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE
WARMUP WELL INTO THE 60S FRIDAY DESPITE A WEAK FRONT/NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT SET TO MOVE THROUGH WEST TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL HALT THE
WARMUP...SENDING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE
MID-UPPER 50S BEGINNING SATURDAY AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL ENTER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND BRING A RETURN TO CYCLONIC FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
TOO HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND...NOW EXHIBITING A
POSITIVE TILT AND PERHAPS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO
RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH FRIDAY/S
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH MAY BE A LARGE DETERMINING FACTOR IN LOCAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THIS WILL AFFECT THE DEGREE/SPEED OF RETURN
FLOW AND GULF MOISTURE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH UPPER RIDGING
IN VICINITY OF THE REGION AND ANOTHER POTENTIALLY LOOMING TROUGH
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. HAVE KEPT LOW END POPS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT SIMILAR CONCERNS TO THE
WEEKEND/S SYSTEM MAY COME TO FRUITION WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND TRACKING MUCH FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST BEHIND AN IMPRESSIVE EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 51 35 61 39 62 / 0 0 20 20 10
TULIA 51 32 60 42 62 / 0 10 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 54 35 59 42 64 / 0 0 10 20 10
LEVELLAND 63 36 59 43 67 / 0 0 10 20 10
LUBBOCK 62 35 60 45 67 / 0 0 10 20 10
DENVER CITY 66 38 61 43 69 / 0 0 10 20 10
BROWNFIELD 64 36 60 44 68 / 0 0 10 20 10
CHILDRESS 51 36 60 47 67 / 0 10 10 20 10
SPUR 62 35 59 47 69 / 0 0 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 62 39 62 51 71 / 0 10 10 20 10

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

549 AM CST WED DEC 3 2014

.AVIATION...
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING 24 HOURS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH AN MVFR CLOUD LAYER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KCDS BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST WELL INTO OR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP
AT KCDS MAINLY LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT WITH LESSER CHANCES AT BOTH
KPVW AND KLBB LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. WE HAVE REMOVED THE PREVIOUS
TEMPO AT KCDS FOR LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LASTING UNTIL 14Z
THIS MORNING AS DEW-POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
CLOSED WHILE THE HRRR TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF GRADUALLY ON AREAL
COVERAGE OF REDUCED VISIBILITY THIS MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
REASSESS VISIBILITY ISSUES FOR LATER FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST WED DEC 3 2014/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 51 35 61 39 62 / 0 0 20 20 10
TULIA 51 32 60 42 62 / 0 10 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 54 35 59 42 64 / 0 0 10 20 10
LEVELLAND 60 36 59 43 67 / 0 0 10 20 10
LUBBOCK 58 35 60 45 67 / 0 0 10 20 10
DENVER CITY 65 38 61 43 69 / 0 0 10 20 10
BROWNFIELD 62 36 60 44 68 / 0 0 10 20 10
CHILDRESS 51 36 60 47 67 / 0 10 10 20 10
SPUR 61 35 59 47 69 / 0 0 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 61 39 62 51 71 / 0 10 10 20 10

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1150 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...
RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
THIS WILL DROP CIGS FROM MVFR TO IFR BY 08Z ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR. IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. CIGS SHOULD MANAGE TO RISE
INTO MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20Z-21Z WITH ANOTHER
DROP INTO IFR EXPECTED AFTER 04/04Z. AT KDRT...MVFR CIGS HAVE
RETURNED AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE/LL
GO AHEAD AND BRING CIGS DOWN INTO IFR BEGINNING 12Z. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD RETURN AFTER 03/17Z...WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS TO VFR
BETWEEN 03/22Z-04/02Z. CIGS DROP BACK INTO MVFR AROUND 04/04Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014/

UPDATE... ONLY A FEW EDITS WERE MADE TO GOING FORECAST WITH SLIGHT
TRIMMING BACK OF PATCHY DRIZZLE AREA TO JUST THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HOURLY TEMPERATURES/ DEWPOINTS WERE
ON TRACK WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

DISCUSSION... LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS EVENING. YET, EXPECT
THIS REGION TO ALSO FILL IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS. BASED ON LATEST HI-RES RAP AND NAM/GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRIER AIR IN THE LOWEST 1000FT THAT WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE OVERCOME FOR ANY LIGHT DRIZZLE TO MAKE IT ALL
THE WAY TO THE SURFACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO MOISTEN UP AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOWARDS 3-6AM AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT COULD HELP LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOP OVER I-35 CORRIDOR
AND AREAS EAST. STILL, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH NO
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. HAVE KEPT POPS LOW, IN THE 10% RANGE. UPDATED
TEXT PRODUCTS ARE OUT AND WILL CONTINUE GRAPHICS AS IS GIVEN THE
OVERNIGHT EXPECTATIONS. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS WILL ERODE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND SPRINKLES HAD DEVELOPED GENERALLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 90 EARLIER TODAY AND THEN TAPERED OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESUME LATER THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY TO BE CONTINUOUS...BUT
THE STEADY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN THE TIMING OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES. THE THICK LOW LEVEL MOIST
LAYER SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME HEATING...ALTHOUGH
THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY SHOULD REDUCE THE
ISENTROPIC EFFECTS ALONG THE INVERSION AND ALLOW FOR A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A DREARY PATTERN WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND OR PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS FLOW REMAINS
ZONAL ALOFT. MOISTURE DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE THE NAM/GFS PWAT VALUES
APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SUGGESTS SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING OF A SHORTWAVE LATE FRIDAY...AND A STRENGTHENING OF
A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. CHANGES AS APPLIED TO THIS FORECAST WERE
SUBTLE...WITH A SLIGHT LOWERING OF BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS OVER THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS QUICK TO FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
THE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AMPLIFY FURTHER...SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST COULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKES OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT DISTURBANCES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 47 64 55 68 59 / 10 10 20 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 46 63 54 68 59 / 10 10 20 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 48 65 56 69 61 / 10 10 20 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 45 63 52 66 57 / 10 10 20 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 46 63 54 67 57 / - 10 20 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 46 63 53 67 58 / 10 10 20 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 47 61 55 68 59 / 10 10 20 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 47 64 54 69 59 / 10 10 20 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 49 67 55 71 61 / 10 10 20 20 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 49 63 57 69 61 / 10 10 20 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 48 64 57 69 62 / 10 10 20 20 20

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

VISIT...

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
352 PM PST THU DEC 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of storm systems will bring a wintry mix of precipitation
to the Pacific Northwest tonight and on through a good portion of
the weekend. A break in storm systems occurs Sunday but ends
quickly with more winter storms passing through as early as Sunday
night and continuing on through at least the early part of the
next workweek.

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...Highlights in effect to address the freezing rain and
the resulting ice accumulation. Idaho and Washington Palouse was
again added to ongoing freezing rain advisories as that area never
quite got rid of its cold air at low levels this warmer moist air
is overrunning and producing this wintry mix which includes snow
and some rain in areas that did warm up enough to allow the
transition. Otherwise majority of pavement temperatures across the
northern two thirds of the forecast area roughly just as cold.
Have relied on the Hourly HRRR runs for most of the day to
maintain confidence in keeping the freezing rain highlights
associated with the next incoming weather disturbance which is
very pronounced in the current radar mosaic over South Central
Washington and North Central Oregon. Some locations such as
Wenatchee airport have broke slightly above freezing but this
trend is not widespread and with the considerable amount of ice
accumulation resulting from this system passing there the ice
storm warning remains in effect tonight. /Pelatti

Friday through Sunday...A weak wave will track across the northwest/northern
mountains Friday morning...as high pressure builds into the
region. Another fairly fast moving short wave disturbance will
move through the ridge on Saturday. This will be followed by high
pressure re-building Saturday night and Sunday for a drying trend.
Temperatures will be on the increase with high warming into the
mid 30s to mid 40s both Friday and Saturday.

*Precipitation: The combination of the weak wave moving through
the northern zones will combine with isentropic up-glide and
orographic lift for precipitation to linger across the northern
zones through the day on Friday. Otherwise the precipitation
chances will be winding down. There will be a brief lull in the
action Friday night as the ridge of high pressure moves into the
region, but there will still be some light precipitation chances
possible across the northern zones. The next wave will tap into
another round of deep Pacific moisture Saturday morning and bring
a quick shot of moisture to the region. Isentropic up-glide will
be on the increase across the western zones around 12z with the
cold front following less than 6 hours later. The low level flow
will be southeast to south Saturday morning eliminating any
Cascade shadowing for the lowers east slopes and the deep
basin...then the floe will become south-southwest through the
day. Drying from the west is expected before mid day, but
precipitation will linger through Saturday evening for the
Panhandle. Storm total precipitation will range from around a
tenth for the lower elevations and possibly up to a quarter inch
for the mountains for the Saturday system. Snow accumulation of
3-4 inches will be possible for the mountains with possibly 1-2
inches for the Methow valley.

*Precipitation type: This is a much more difficult forecast
compared to the precipitation. Warm air advection Friday is
expected to increase snow levels through the day. However cold
air trapped up against the cascades and in many of the deeper
valleys and northern mountain valleys will be tougher to scour
out. Some areas of freezing rain were kept in the forecast from
about the West plains west into the valleys of the Cascades early
Friday morning. As the warm air continues to advect north Friday
morning precipitation in some of the stubborn valleys along the
Columbia river and the northern mountains will see a period of
light freezing precipitation before that to turns over the rain.
This will be watched closely for any additional highlights
needed. By Saturday we can expect valley rain and mountain snow.
The exception will most likely be the Methow valley where
precipitation should stay as all snow. Tobin

Sunday night through Thursday: A ridge pattern will be in place to
start this period. Sunday night is expected to remain dry for most
of the region with some spill over the Cascades bringing some
snow showers to the higher elevations. As the ridge pushes east,
a warm moist southwesterly flow will setup for the beginning of
the week and last through the end period. The models are in fairly
good agreement for this scenario. The warming trend will keep this
a rain event for the most of the Inland Northwest. The only areas
expected for snow will be elevations above 5000 feet. This will last
through Thursday before models are indicating the next wave of
cold air to push into the region. Temperatures for this period
will be on the high side of the season normals with highs in the
mid 40s and lows in the mid 30s. /JDC

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Wintry mix of precipitation consisting of light rain,
snow, and freezing rain will be troublesome for the aviation area
for the next 24 hours or more. Generally this mix will be south of
a line from Lake Chelan to Deer Park. KGEG KSFF KCOE can expect
to see a precip in form of snow changing to freezing rain. KPUW
KLWS will mainly be plagued with low ceilings. Locations in the
vicinity of KEAT Generally south of Lake Chelan and to the west of
KEPH will see the intensity of ice accumulation pick up overnight
tonight into early Friday morning. /JDC

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 39 33 41 32 39 / 80 40 10 80 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 29 40 34 41 33 40 / 80 40 10 80 20 0
Pullman 31 43 37 44 33 44 / 80 20 10 90 10 10
Lewiston 36 45 40 47 35 45 / 70 20 10 70 10 0
Colville 28 37 34 40 31 39 / 80 30 30 60 20 0
Sandpoint 30 38 34 40 32 40 / 80 50 20 80 30 10
Kellogg 31 39 34 38 33 39 / 90 60 10 90 40 0
Moses Lake 29 38 32 41 29 39 / 70 20 50 70 10 0
Wenatchee 29 37 34 41 30 38 / 80 40 60 60 0 10
Omak 25 35 32 38 26 35 / 70 40 50 70 10 10

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Idaho Palouse.

Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Coeur d`Alene
Area.

WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-
Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

ICE Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Friday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Washington
Palouse.

Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Spokane Area.

Freezing Rain Advisory until 7 AM PST Friday for Moses Lake Area-
Upper Columbia Basin.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

856 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING HAS BEEN ON WHETHER OR NOT WE ARE
GOING TO GET ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.

CURRENTLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BETWEEN A DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE NOW
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN
PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THIS RH
SURGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL RUNS AND THAT SCENARIO IS
NOW BEING PLAYED OUT WITH THE STRATUS EVIDENT IN OBS/SATELLITE.

WHILE THERE HAS BEEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD DECK COMING
IN...THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH LIFT THERE
WILL BE IN THE LOW LEVELS/INVERSION LAYER TO PRODUCE SOME
DRIZZLE/MIST. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP HAVE SHOWN LITTLE TO NO
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 270-285K SURFACES (BELOW 850MB). IF THERE
IS ANY LIFT...IT APPEARS TO BE ABOVE THE INVERSION AT 850MB THANKS
TO A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED 850MB WARM FRONT/TROUGH THAT IS ENTERING
WESTERN MINNESOTA PER 00Z RAOB DATA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DRIZZLE/RAIN REPORTED WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE MAIN FRONT IN
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHERN MISSOURI/CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN DOWN BELOW 1KFT. BASED ON THE 04.21Z SREF
PROBABILITIES OF <1000FT CEILINGS HEIGHTS...THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
THESE IFR CIGS RUNS FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA ON UP TOWARD THE TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT IN WESTERN
IOWA/SW MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. GOING INTO THE LATER
MORNING AND AFTERNOON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE WINDS LIGHTEN UP AND
THE SHALLOW INVERSION HOLDS TIGHT AND COULD HELP FORM SOME FOG AND
LOWER CEILINGS. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT
WOULD BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING...SO IMPACTS MAY BE MINIMAL.

LONG STORY SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH RIGHT NOW IN
WHETHER THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL FORM TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

AT 2 PM...A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SAGINAW BAY
/PART OF LAKE HURON/. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
HIGH HAVE CAUSED TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 30S. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS INTERSTATE...THE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 20S.

FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...THE 04.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WEAK 925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE AIR MASS BELOW
800 MB WILL BECOME SATURATED AND THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK OMEGA IN
THIS LAYER. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
MEANWHILE THE GFS...SATURATES THE LAYER BETWEEN 950 AND 800 MB AND
KEEPS A DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN JUST A
LIFR/IFR DECK OF CLOUDS. UNTIL THIS PAST HOUR WAS LEANING MORE TOWARD
THE GFS BECAUSE THERE WAS NO DRIZZLE OR LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HOWEVER BOTH OF THESE ARE STARTING
TO SHOW UP IN THE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THIS AREA...SO MAYBE THE NAM
AND RUC ARE HANDLING THIS BETTER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. DUE TO
THIS...KEPT A 15 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST. LIKE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...USED THE 925 TO
850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO TIME THE FREEZING DRIZZLE ONSET AND
ENDING.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LIKE PREVIOUS
RUNS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SYNOPTIC LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAVE
REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE SO THE MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THEY
WERE EARLIER. DUE TO THIS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY ONLY OCCUR FOR AN 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD. SOME OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN ALOFT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IF
THIS IS CORRECT...THERE WOULD BE A LOSS OF ICE FROM ALOFT...AND
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD CHANGE FROM SNOW TO EITHER A RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO MAY NOT
HAVE TOO MUCH OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT. SINCE THIS IS STILL OVER
84 HOUR OUT...IT WAS THE CONSENSUS TO JUST KEEP THE FORECAST IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR NOW. WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH SNOW. GFS COBB
DATA CURRENTLY IS SHOWING A HALF INCH OR LESS OF SNOW.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE GFS SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 KEEP MUCH OF THEIR
SATURATION BELOW 900 MB AND BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB...SO THINKING
THAT THE MODELS MAY BE OVER DOING THIS PRECIPITATION...SO OPTED TO
FOLLOW THE ECMWF AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ON THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON HOW FAST WE WILL
WARM UP. THE GFS WARMS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE 10 TO 14C
RANGE. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THESE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 0
TO -4C. THE CFS VERSION 2 OVER THE PAST 5 DAYS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT THE HIGHS ON THIS DAY WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 AND FROM 40 TO 45 WITH A STANDARD DEVIATION LESS
THAN 1. MEANWHILE THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF MOS HAS HIGHS AROUND
30...BUT THIS IS MUCH LOWER THAN ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WITH SUCH
DIFFERENCES STAYED NEAR THE MODEL BLEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

TRICKY FORECAST ON TAP FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS
MVFR DECK IS STARTING TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND SHOULD BE INTO RST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LATER
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AT LSE. AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...EXPECT THAT
A STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL HELP TO KEEP FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING DOWN TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR...PARTICULARLY WITH
CEILINGS. SOME CONCERN THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH IN THIS OCCURRING SINCE
THERE IS NOT MUCH LIFT AVAILABLE IN THE VERY LOW LEVELS TO HELP
DEVELOP ANY PRECIPITATION. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE
LATER TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE STRONG
INVERSION STAYS IN PLACE. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
UNTIL POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY MORNING THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT IT COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

607 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1008 PM MST TUE DEC 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MST TUE DEC 2 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WAS LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR AT 20Z. WEAKENING GRADIENTS FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAVE GENERALLY LIMITED WIND GUSTS...BUT STILL IS
QUITE WINDY ACROSS THE WIND PRONE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE ADJACENT PLAINS. GOOD MIXING TODAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...AND THE
CYS VAD WIND PROFILE STILL SHOWS 45 KT WINDS JUST 2K FEET AGL. STILL
MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACH 50 MPH THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. NO WIND CONCERNS OVERNIGHT AS GFS/NAM SHOW H8-H7 FLOW FALLING
CONSIDERABLY AFTER 00Z WED. EXPECTED MORE MOISTURE TO ADVECT IN FROM
THE NORTH TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS SHOWN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH LOWER CLOUDS ERODING
OVER NORTHEAST WY. SHOULD SEE STRATUS DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE LATER TONIGHT AS THE BLYR COOLS AND WEAK LLVL UPSLOPE
TAKES SHAPE. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG FROM THE SUMMIT EAST INTO CENTRAL
LARAMIE COUNTY WITH MODEST LIFT AND NAM SOUNDING PROGS SHOWING GOOD
SATURATION IN THE LLVLS BETWEEN 09-12Z. LIMITING FACTOR FOR FOG PTNL
WOULD BE IF WINDS STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS MIXED NEAR THE
SFC.

MUCH COOLER FOR WED IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. H7 TEMPS AVERAGING
AROUND -5 DEG C AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SUGGEST SENSIBLE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. MODELS KEEP A SOUTH
WIND INTACT FOR CHEYENNE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON WED...SO IT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT LLVL CLOUDS BY PEAK HEATING. DROPPED HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES AS IT MAY BE TOUGH TO EVEN REACH 40 DEGREES LOCALLY. TOO
DRY ALOFT TO SUPPORT PCPN OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LARGE SCALE LIFT
IMPROVES BY WED AFTERNOON IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 110+ KT H25
JET STREAK OVER CENTRAL UT. PVA AND MOIST LLVL OROGRAPHICS WILL ALSO
SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW OF THE ADJ
VALLEYS FROM WED AFTN THROUGH THE DAY ON THU. CURRENTLY EXPECT SUB-
ADVISORY AMOUNTS WITH 2-4 INCHES IN THE SNOWIES/SIERRA MADRES AS QPF
IS UNIMPRESSIVE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THU
LIKELY PROVIDING A GOOD BOOST TO TEMPERATURES. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER
MOS GUIDANCE WITH A FEW 60 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MST TUE DEC 2 2014

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
YIELD LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH TEMPS THAT
WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WHICH WILL
MEANDER AROUND SRN CANADA/NRN CONUS AND A SUB-TROPICAL JET THAT
WILL HOLD UP WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW...BUT WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION ALONG EACH JET. ALTHOUGH DONT SEE ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MAINLY IN AND AROUND THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EACH
AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MST TUE DEC 2 2014

KEPT CONDITIONS VFR FOR THE 06Z TAF SUITE. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR NORTHEAST...DEWPOINTS REALLY LOW OUT OVER THE
PANHANDLE WITH NO LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SREF AND LATEST HRRR SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS AS WELL.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 PM MST TUE DEC 2 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE A
COOLER ON WED WITH A FEW INCHES OF MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60 DEGREES EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON THU. CONTINUING BREEZY
IN THE AFTERNOONS.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

423 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
TODAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO CENTRAL
INDIANA. DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND ADVECTED INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND PER HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS EXPECT IT TO PUSH A BIT
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VISIBILITIES
IN THIS AREA LOOK TO OFTEN BE ONE QUARTER MILE WITH A FEW AREAS OF
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...AND WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 15Z...WHEN PROGS SUGGEST VISIBILITY SHOULD
IMPROVE. THERE IS SOME CHANCE VISIBILITIES MAY IMPROVE EARLIER AS
RAINFALL DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND IF THIS BECOMES THE
CASE THE ADVISORY MAY BE ABLE TO DROP EARLY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH EASTWARD ALONG AN UNDULATING
FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL RAMP POPS UP GRADUALLY DURING THE MORNING TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WHILE UPRIGHT INSTABILITY IS
NIL...SOME RELATIVELY STOUT FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF SATURATED
NEGATIVE EPV. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA SHOW LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR 0 TO 1 WITH A
PARCEL LIFTED FROM ROUGHLY 900 MB...AROUND THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION. ALL THIS IS TO SAY THAT A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...BUT IS LOW
PROBABILITY ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE GRIDS UNTIL DEVELOPMENT
SAYS OTHERWISE.

POPS WILL REMAIN 90 TO 100 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT THE
MOST INTENSE OF THE RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING WHEN THE MESOSCALE FORCING IS
STRONGEST. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS THE
NORTH...TO AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ACROSS THE SOUTH APPEAR
LIKELY.

ON TEMPS...USED ADJUSTED RAW MODEL BLENDS AS THE RAW MODEL TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BEST CAPTURE WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. NONDIURNAL
TEMPERATURE PROGRESSION APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
NEAREST THE LOW AND THE FRONTAL ZONE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DATE POTENTIALLY REACHED NEAR MIDNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

WHILE SOME PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
THROUGH THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT NO FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED.

ON TEMPS...MODEL CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE THROUGHOUT
WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK IN
STORE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT A COLD FRONTAL
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AS THE LOWER
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FAILS TO OPEN UP FROM THE
GULF. THUS HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW CHC POPS FOR NOW AS WE CANNOT
RULE OUT A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ALOFT NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF UPPER DYNAMICS PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...REINFORCING RIDGING APPEARS TO BE BUILDING ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS SHOULD CONTINUE THE
TREND OF DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 050900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THESE CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHES TOWARD INDIANA ALONG A
WARM FRONT LINGERING ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. ONGOING TIME
SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SATURATED LOWER LEVEL. NUMEROUS
LOCATIONS UPSTREAM...ALONG AND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT CONTINUE
TO EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES.

/DISCUSSION FOR 050600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

SUB-IFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATE
THIS EVENING...AND IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS BOTH KIND AND KLAF
WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW 500FT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND REMAIN THERE ALL
DAY FRIDAY WITH A SATURATED COLUMN AND SHARP INVERSION IN THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER.

WRF-NMM/ARW AND HRRR ALL SPREAD STEADY LIGHT RAIN NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE MORNING. HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINFALL
ARRIVES BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OZARKS
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. VISIBILITIES WILL FALL TO 1SM AND LOWER
WITHIN THE HEAVIER RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUED CEILINGS JUST A FEW
HUNDRED FEET OFF THE GROUND. THE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
FRIDAY EVENING WITH RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO
EASTERLY BY EARLY EVENING THEN NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE
SOUTH.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ028-035-
036-043>047-051>056-060>065-067>072.

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

406 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND ADVECTED INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND PER HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS EXPECT IT TO PUSH A BIT
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VISIBILITIES
IN THIS AREA LOOK TO OFTEN BE ONE QUARTER MILE WITH A FEW AREAS OF
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...AND WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 15Z...WHEN PROGS SUGGEST VISIBILTY SHOULD
IMPROVE. THERE IS SOME CHANCE VISIBILITIES MAY IMPROVE EARLIER AS
RAINFALL DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND IF THIS BECOMES THE
CASE THE ADVISORY MAY BE ABLE TO DROP EARLY.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
THROUGH THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT NO FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED.

ON TEMPS...MODEL CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE THROUGHOUT
WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ028-035-
036-043>047-051>056-060>065-067>072.

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

240 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN 30S
AND 40S...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA COULD SEE LOWER
50S ON FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 959 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

LAST LOOK AT OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING THE MESO NETWORK SUGGESTS A NEED
TO CONTINUE WITH A MIX FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
INDIANAPOLIS. SO...WILL NEED TO ADD A PRE-FIRST PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING...COVERAGE AND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
EXPECTED MODERATE RAINFALL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES.

PREFER MODEL MIX WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 12Z NAM AND ECMWF
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DESPITE THE
RAIN. AFTER THAT...BLEND LOOKS GOOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/50
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1135 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN 30S
AND 40S...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA COULD SEE LOWER
50S ON FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 959 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

LAST LOOK AT OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING THE MESO NETWORK SUGGESTS A NEED
TO CONTINUE WITH A MIX FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
INDIANAPOLIS. SO...WILL NEED TO ADD A PRE-FIRST PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING...COVERAGE AND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
EXPECTED MODERATE RAINFALL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES.

PREFER MODEL MIX WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 12Z NAM AND ECMWF
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DESPITE THE
RAIN. AFTER THAT...BLEND LOOKS GOOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/50
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...RYAN

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

204 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION EARLIER THIS MORNING APPEARS TO
RELATE WELL WITH THE 700MB MOISTURE ALONG A DEVELOPING 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THIS WILL USE
THESE FEATURES FROM THE LATEST RAP AS A GUIDE AND TAPER THE
PRECIPITATION OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION TO THE ENDING PRECIPITATION THE RAP AND NAM BOTH
INDICATED DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SO WILL FAVOR A DECREASING
SKIES QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. GIVEN MORE AFTERNOON SUN
AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO WARM TO AROUND
60S WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL
KANSAS GIVEN THE RAINFALL EXPECTED AND CLOUD COVER LINGERING
LONGER.

TONIGHT A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE WILL FOLLOW
THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
PASSES OFF TO THE EAST, SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY; BUT
THERE ARE ONLY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL KANSAS GIVEN A LACK
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK LIFT. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID TO HIGH 50S. OTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT; BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF RICH MOISTURE
AND ONLY WEAK LIFT, PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY. WITH WEAK LEE
TROUGHING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED BY NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS, ALONG WITH HIGH PLAINS
SURFACE TROUGHING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RAIN
CHANCES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE 15TH AND 16TH OF
DECEMBER WILL DEPEND ON HOW SLOW THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND THE RESULTANT MOISTURE SUPPLY
FROM THE SOUTH. IT APPEARS THAT COLD AIR WILL BE LACKING SO THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE RAIN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

LIGHT RAIN, MVFR FOG AND LIFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN KANSAS.
AS OF 04Z THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN APPEARS TO RELATE WELL WITH
700MB MOISTURE AND 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. USING THE RAP AS GUIDE THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z AT GCK AND HYS AND THEN DDC AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.
AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF THE CEILINGS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE DUE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE
AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR RETURNING TO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN VRF CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MID TO LATE
MORNING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 57 26 47 32 / 50 0 0 10
GCK 58 25 47 30 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 60 30 50 34 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 59 27 48 33 / 10 0 0 10
HYS 54 22 45 31 / 20 0 0 10
P28 56 30 48 34 / 100 0 0 10

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1029 PM MST THU DEC 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM MST THU DEC 4 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 426 PM MST THU DEC 4 2014

HAVE CLOUDY SKIES ALREADY AND IT IS NOT GOING TO START CLEARING
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. SO AM GOING TO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE SKY
COVER UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MST THU DEC 4 2014

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 30S WITH CLOUDY
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 50S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MST THU DEC 4 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST THU DEC 4 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SHIFTING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. AT THAT TIME...NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT KGLD. THE WINDS STOP BECOMING GUSTY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1126 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

AT 00Z FRIDAY A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO AND WAS
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
WHICH EXTENDED FROM BAJA MEXICO INTO THE THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH AN AREA OF HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WERE OBSERVED ALONG A WEAK 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDED
FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO NORTHEAST KANSAS. 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WAS OBSERVED NORTH OF A SURFACE
WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO, ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. FURTHER NORTH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MINNESOTA ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

THE 12Z NAM MODEL MOVES THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS
PUSHING MOIST AIR TOWARD SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MODEL ISENTROPIC FIELDS
INDICATE THE GREATEST ASCENT EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE BEST RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPWARDS
OF A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL IN THIS AREA. WHILE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, THE AREA FROM
SYRACUSE THROUGH SCOTT CITY AND WAKEENEY WILL SEE AMOUNTS GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT, THE RAIN WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AS THE THE RAIN MOVES OUT. FAIRLY
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT OF MENTIONING AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT
WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE IN SOME LOCATIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL MIXING
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID
TO LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST AND UPPER RIDGING AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR 60 POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 40 55 28 47 / 100 20 0 0
GCK 37 57 27 47 / 90 10 0 0
EHA 38 58 30 50 / 100 0 0 0
LBL 39 58 29 48 / 100 10 0 0
HYS 38 54 26 45 / 90 10 0 0
P28 42 54 32 48 / 100 70 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

137 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

BLENDED LATEST TEMP/DEW POINT OBS INTO THE FORECAST...WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST LARGELY ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...WITH LARGELY VFR IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND THE
GREATEST PREVALENCE OF IFR IN THE NORTH. SOME OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...A DETERIORATION
TO MAINLY MVFR AND IFR IS EXPECTED AS SHOWERS DEVELOP.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

1110 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

349 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE FORMATION OF FOG
AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING IN A WARM AND HUMID GULF AIR MASS.
CURRENTLY...WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF A VERY LOW STRATUS
DECK...WITH VISIBILITIES AT MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 4 MILES.
A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN LOWER ACADIANA ARE HOVERING BETWEEN
1/4 AND 1/2 MILE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS LOCATION TO
SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED IF 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. ALSO...A FEW VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS LIFT FROM SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA.

RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
INTO TONIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD. MOISTURE PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY AFTERNOON. LIFT FROM
THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCATTERED...MAINLY
LIGHT...SHOWERS. PROGS DO SHOW SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG.
THEREFORE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD MIX IN WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR WHERE LIFT FROM
SHORT WAVE WILL BE GREATER. SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO ALSO RE-
DEVELOP AWAY FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT. SOME FOG MAY BE DENSE
AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...ENTERING NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
AGAIN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAKER ON SATURDAY...SO WILL JUST MENTION
SHOWERS IN THE WEATHER GRID.

LOOKS LIKE SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO OVER-RIDING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND CLOUDY SUNDAY IS THEN
EXPECTED...WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW
IS EXPECTED...TO END UPGLIDE AND PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM
THE AREA...ENDING RAIN CHANCES. THE UP-COMING WEEK THEN LOOKS ON
THE SEASONABLE SIDE...WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

RUA

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EARLY
MORNING...HELPING PUSH WARM MOIST AIR OVER RELATIVELY COOLER
WATERS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN DENSE SEA FOG (VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 NM) FOR
MAINLY THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS.
OBSERVATIONS FURTHER OFFSHORE...DO NOT INDICATE ANY DENSE SEA FOG
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THAT IS KEEPING ANY FOG LIGHT AND
PATCHY IN NATURE WITH MAINLY JUST LOW CLOUDS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
WHAT RUC AND HRRR VISIBILITIES ARE SHOWING...THAT DENSE SEA FOG
WILL STAY IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE
ADJUSTED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXTEND IT THROUGH 10
CST...EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER WATERS...WHERE THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED.

THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THERE IS ANOTHER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME DENSE
SEA FOG IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...AND THIS WILL HELP DISPERSE ANY REMAINING FOG AND END SEA
FOG FORMATION PROCESS AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

RUA

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 74 62 73 51 62 / 30 30 30 20 10
KBPT 75 61 73 53 64 / 20 20 30 20 10
KAEX 76 61 71 46 59 / 40 40 30 10 10
KLFT 76 63 75 51 63 / 30 20 30 10 10

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1118 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE MIXED PRECIPITATION THREAT
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND THEN THE WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

STRATUS IS NOW FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
THIS EVENING...AND WE DON`T EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. KSTC WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
EDGE AND HAS THE MOST UNCERTAINTY. IN FACT...WE DO EXPECT SLIGHT
LOWERING OF CLOUD BASES WITH TIME IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIP WITH THE CLOUDS TONIGHT
OR TOMORROW.

KMSP...
WE`LL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LOW STUFF TONIGHT AND
WHETHER CLOUDS BASES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE MORNING
RUSH. WE TYPICALLY SEE LOWERING TO NEAR OR BELOW 1000FT IN THESE
SITUATIONS IN WINTER...SO THAT`S WHAT WE`RE SHOOTING FOR IN THE
LATEST TAF. NOT A CERTAINTY WE GET IFR CEILINGS...BUT MORE OFTEN
THAN NOT WE DO ON NIGHTS LIKE THIS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS E/NE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/-SN/-RA/-PL POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 10G20KTS.
MON...VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS EARLY. WINDS WNW/NW 10-15 KTS.

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

340 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS TRACKING ACROSS KS EARLY THIS
MORNING WHICH HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF KS. THE AREA OF RAIN HAS GRADUALLY BEEN MOVING NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST KS AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT...WITH OUR
SOUTHERN CWA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH THE PCPN MOVING
OUT SHORTLY THEREAFTER BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS.

ALSO A CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE...AND AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO FAR THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS...KEEPING THE LOWEST
VSBYS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...WHEREAS THE NAM SUGGEST FOG MAY
REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. SO FAR THE
LOWEST VSBYS ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE AND MORE SO ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PCPN IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

A SURFACE TROUGH/COOL FRONT CROSSES THE PLAINS DURING THE
DAY...SWITCHING WINDS NORTHERLY AND SCOURS THE LLVL MOISTURE TO
THE EAST. COOLER AIR IS SLOW TO ADVECT SOUTH AND WE ARE STILL
LOOKING FOR RATHER MILD HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S THIS AFTN AIDED BY
OUR WARM START. A COLDER AIRMASS SETTLES SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST FM THE DAKOTAS.
IN THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE
TEENS/20S. MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF OUR SOUTHEAST CWA AND NAM/MET GUIDANCE INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR FOG ON THE EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE KRSL AREA.
SREF VSBY PROGS KEEP FOG POTENTIAL FARTHER EAST AND WITH NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES MAINLY WITH LATE
WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY...WITH
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING EAST...SET UP BETWEEN A
DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE MIDWEST...AND ANOTHER WORKING
THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECTING
THE CWA TO BE SITTING UNDER A RIDGE AXIS...EXTENDING FROM THE PARENT
HIGH LOCATED OVER NRN MN. BRINGING LIGHTER NRLY WINDS TO START THE
DAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THAT HIGH/RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA. SITTING UNDER A COOLER AIRMASS...FORECAST
HIGHS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER/MID 40S OVER THE WEST.

GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ARRIVES AS WE GET INTO THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THAT ABOVE MENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMERGES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE
PLAINS. EXPECTING CONDITIONS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT TO REMAIN DRY...BUT
MODELS SHOW INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH TIME
/THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY/...THANKS TO MORE SOUTHERLY SFC/LL WINDS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REFLECT THAT...SHOWING THE LOWEST LAYERS BECOMING
SATURATED WITH TIME...WITH LIFT PICKING UP AS THAT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INCHES CLOSER. CONCERNED ABOUT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HAD INHERITED A MENTION IN THE PRE DAWN
HOURS SUNDAY AND DECIDED TO KEEP IT GOING. DECIDED TO GO WITH A DZ
MENTION WITH THERE BEING A DRIER LAYER IN PLACE ABOVE THAT LOWER
LEVEL SATURATION. AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN ITS
OCCURRENCE...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT EITHER. HAVE SOME LOW
POPS GOING AFTER 12Z...AS THE LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE WAVE
PASSES...THINKING THAT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BETTER CHANCES
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA...SO ONLY HAVE THE FAR EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING POPS. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THE EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION IS WHERE WILL TEMPERATURES END UP. THOUGHTS ARE THAT
TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF /PERHAPS RISE A FEW DEGREES/ ONCE THE THICKER
CLOUD COVER/BETTER MOISTURE MOVES IN...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPS TO BE HOVERING AROUND THAT FREEZING MARK SHOULD THE PRECIP
DEVELOP...FELT A LIGHT FZDZ/FZRA MENTION SHOULD BE INCLUDED WITH THE
LIQUID MENTION. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD FREEZING PRECIP OCCUR...IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE NOTABLE PROBLEMS...AS IT WOULD BE LIGHT...AND
SHORT LIVED WITH TEMPS INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE. WITH THIS BEING IN
THE 4TH PERIOD...STILL SOME TIME TO ADJUST BASED ON HOW MODELS
TREND. OTHERWISE FOR SUNDAY...SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AROUND...ESP IN THE EAST...BUT EXPECTING A REBOUND IN TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. IT REMAINS DRY AT
THIS POINT...WITH MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LACK
OF NOTABLE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...THOUGH WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IS A
POSSIBILITY. JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO INSERT ANY
PRECIP MENTION. NOT EXPECTING ANY BIG SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME...SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS
FOR WED/THUR BACK IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT...TRACKING ACROSS KANSAS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN AT VFR. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...MORE
SO TOWARD KGRI THAN KEAR BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ON HOW FAR
WEST THE THE FOG WILL BE AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1052 PM MST THU DEC 4 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WINTER WX ADVY A BIT
EARLY...RADAR ECHOES HAVE REALLY TAPERED OFF AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND LATEST MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE TX BORDER
SOON. MORE CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF FOG SHOWING UP. WILL SEND OUT
A ZFP UPDATE SHORTLY TO HAVE WIDESPREAD FOG WORDING TONIGHT FOR
THE CENTRAL AND WEST...AREAS IN THE EAST. SOME LOCALIZED DENSE FOG
LIKELY AS WELL. CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY BUT CONFIDENCE LOW FOR ANY
PARTICULAR AREA.

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
RECIPITATION HAS TURNED MUCH LIGHTER...MORE SPARSE...AND SHOWERY
AND THE FOCUS WILL NOW SHIFT TO LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED TO LOCALIZED IFR AND EVEN
LIFR CONDITIONS. THE DENSER FOG AND LOWER STRATUS CLOUD DECKS WILL
BE MOST COMMON AND PREVALENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN OF NEW MEXICO WITH SOME SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS OBSERVING
VISIBILITY AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER OF A MILE. CONFIDENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS NOT AS HIGH...BUT IT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING FRIDAY WITH LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW STRAY AND
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

GUYER

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

254 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

QUIET AND COOL IS THE STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-94. AS THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY DROP OFF JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST...AIMING TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
RAP AND HRRR MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF STRATUS DISSIPATING BEFORE
REACHING NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THIS MORNING AS IT COULD IMPACT THE MINOT AIRPORT IF IT
HOLDS TOGETHER.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AS IT
TRAVERSES NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...GENERATING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGING OVER
TO SNOW EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE USHERS IN MUCH COLDER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST AREAWIDE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO 35F-45F
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY EARLY THIS
MORNING.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

1233 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES CROSS INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BE FOLLOWED A BY LONGER
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. NOT MUCH CHANGE GIVEN THE CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
AND UPPER DISTURBANCES KEEPING THE THREAT OF PRECIP. STILL WILL KEEP
FRZ RAIN ADVISORY FOR POCAHONTAS COUNTY OVERNIGHT FOR MARGINAL ICING
EVENT.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. KEEP THE HIGH POPS
GOING THROUGH THE SATURDAY PERIOD...DECREASING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS. EXPECTING A BATCH OF HEAVIER RAIN TO COME THROUGH IN
THE 09Z SATURDAY TIME FRAME WITH 850MB THETA E CONVERGENCE
PEAKING. AFTER ALL IS SAID AND DONE...1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM EXITS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE LOWLANDS...30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WENT CLOSE TO HPC TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA...AND A WARM FRONT WITH
SEVERAL SEPARATE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL KEEP IFR OR MVFR
CIGS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO WILL
HAVE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE...FOG...AND LIGHT RAIN PRODUCING MVFR
VISIBILITIES AS WELL. SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY N/NE...AND WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT DRIFTS NORTHWARD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND
DRIZZLE MAY VARY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND IN ANY IMPROVEMENT
FRIDAY. IF THERE IS ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...COULD
SEE HIGHER CEILINGS IN TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE IMPACTED LOCATIONS LIKE
EKN...CKB AND MAYBE CRW.

DATE FRI 12/05/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND IN RAIN.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1145 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...
AREAWIDE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF SE TX IFR WITH FAR INLAND TERMINALS
NOT FAR BEHIND IN REACHING THIS CATEGORY. NEARSHORE GULF SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT HAS LOWERED MANY SOUTHERN HUBS TO NEAR VLIFR...OR LOW
END LIFR. A NEAR STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NEAR THE
COAST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WASH OUT
FAR INLAND THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...EAST WINDS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL VEER SOUTHERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN.
THIS WILL AID IN SCOURING OUT THE LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS/FOG TO MVFR
(OR BRIEF VFR) UNTIL TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE 60S AND DEW
POINT SPREADS NARROW...ULTIMATELY LOWERING CATS BACK DOWN TO LOW
END MVFR TO IFR GOING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 31

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FURTHER NORTH
TOWARDS A LIBERTY TO MONTGOMERY TO AUSTIN COUNTY LINE.
VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING
WITH MULTIPLE SITES ALREADY AT 1/2 A MILE. VISIBILITIES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO LESSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. NEW
ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
LOW LIGHT VIS SHOWING A PLETHORA OF CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH ALSO SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON THE RADAR. GPS MET SITE
SHOWING MOISTURE VALUES RUNNING AROUND ~1.55" WHICH IS ABOUT +2 SD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS UPDATE WILL BE
THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG. CURRENT WEBCAMS FROM GALVESTON SHOWS SEA
FOG RIGHT OFF THE COAST WITH SOME CAMERAS SHOWING HEAVY FOG.
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO ADVECT THE SEA FOG INLAND. WINDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO TURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOULD REALLY HELP TO
ADVECT THE FOG INLAND. SREF AND NAM DEWPOINT DEPRESSION FIELDS
ALONG WITH HRRR VIS PRODUCT ALL SHOWING FOG MOVING INLAND TONIGHT.
DUE TO THIS WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH CURRENT
CONFIGURATION. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG INLAND AND LEFT
MENTION OF DENSE CLOSER TO THE COAST. HAVE ALSO BROUGHT DOWN HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO TOMORROW GIVEN THE CLOUDS IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDING. THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE WITH HAVE TO
CAREFULLY WATCH THIS THOUGH AS 850 TEMPS ARE AROUND 14 C WHICH IS
PRETTY WARM. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 76 58 68 51 / 20 30 30 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 63 75 63 72 54 / 20 30 30 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 63 69 63 69 58 / 20 20 20 30 20

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...WALLER...WHARTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...31

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1131 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FURTHER NORTH
TOWARDS A LIBERTY TO MONTGOMERY TO AUSTIN COUNTY LINE.
VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING
WITH MULTIPLE SITES ALREADY AT 1/2 A MILE. VISIBILITIES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO LESSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. NEW
ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 23

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 76 58 68 51 / 20 30 30 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 63 75 63 72 54 / 20 30 30 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 63 69 63 69 58 / 20 20 20 30 20

DISCUSSION...23

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 PM PST THU DEC 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: it goes without saying that it is a mess out
there, with a mixed bag of precipitation from rain toward the L-C
Valley and Pullman area to freezing rain over the Spokane/C`dA
area west into the Basin. The biggest swath of precipitation runs
from around eastern Adams and Lincoln county into west and
northern Whitman, Spokane counties into the central Panhandle of
Idaho. The freezing rain to rain line appears to lay from near La
Crosss to Garfield, with rain south of that line. There have been
several reports of freezing rain north of here, with places such
as Spokane international Airport reporting around 0.06 inch of ice
has was reported between about 6 and 10 pm.

Latest HRRR and other short-range guidance suggests that this band
of precipitation should start to wane from the west, especially
after about 09Z (1 AM), with the focus starting to shift into the
northeast WA and ID Panhandle mountains toward morning. However
the lower levels are rather saturated. So while the risk of
measurable precipitation wanes into the morning commute over the
larger population areas of eastern WA (i.e. Spokane/C`dA) there
will likely be some misty mix of rain/freezing rain or
drizzle/freezing drizzle. Guidance also suggest some warming by
morning, which may push temperatures up above freezing in areas
below 2000 feet, such as Felt Field.

I added some patchy fog over a good portion of the region for
tonight, with some locally dense fog possible (especially toward
the West Plains) by Friday morning.

The ongoing freezing rain advisories look on track, with most
areas expected to pick up around 0.05 to 0.10 inches of ice.
Farther west toward the Cascades, Wenatchee area and Waterville
Plateau, the ice storm warning was downgraded to a freezing rain
advisory. Keying off radar trends and latest models, including
short-range models, it appear that the region may remain under the
critical quarter inch of ice threat. In fact much of the region
has stayed dry tonight. There are still good indications that the
freezing rain threat will come later overnight into Friday
morning, in time for the morning commute. /J. Cote`

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Wintry mix continues across eastern WA and north ID. GEG
to COE are expected to see -fzra through the early overnight, with
chances waning between 09-12Z. That may change to rain near SFF
during the time. Look for IFR cigs and vis, with potentialy dense
fog near GEG for the early morning 14-19Z or so. Conditions will
remain IFR and low MVFR in that region after 19Z. Toward PUW/LWS
mainly rain is expected tonight, with a similar decrease in the
precipitation threat going into Friday morning. IFR/MVFR conditions
expected here, with possible VFR conditions around LWS in the
afternoon. Farther west toward MWH and especially EAT the threat
of freezing rain will develop overnight into Friday morning, with
the front slipping into region. So look for some icing threat
around especially around 11-18Z in EAT, with a smaller risk in MWH.
/J. Cote`

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 28 39 33 41 32 39 / 60 40 10 80 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 28 40 34 41 33 40 / 70 40 10 80 20 0
Pullman 31 43 37 44 33 44 / 80 20 10 90 10 10
Lewiston 36 45 40 47 35 45 / 70 20 10 70 10 0
Colville 28 37 34 40 31 39 / 60 50 30 60 20 0
Sandpoint 28 38 34 40 32 40 / 70 50 20 80 30 10
Kellogg 31 39 34 38 33 39 / 80 60 10 90 40 0
Moses Lake 28 38 32 41 29 39 / 60 40 50 70 10 0
Wenatchee 29 37 34 41 30 38 / 60 60 60 60 0 10
Omak 25 35 32 38 26 35 / 50 50 50 70 10 10

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Coeur d`Alene
Area-Idaho Palouse.

WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-
Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Spokane Area-
Washington Palouse.

Freezing Rain Advisory until 7 AM PST Friday for Moses Lake Area-
Upper Columbia Basin.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1141 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING HAS BEEN ON WHETHER OR NOT WE ARE
GOING TO GET ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.

LONG STORY SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH RIGHT NOW IN
WHETHER THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL FORM TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED IN ACROSS THE TAF REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS MORE MOISTURE GETS SENT
NORTH. HOW FAST THE CEILINGS DROP TO IFR IS THE QUESTION WITH THE
RAP SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL BE FAIRLY SOON AFTER
MIDNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT RST. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH WINDS DROPPING DOWN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WHILE
THERE STILL IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH THE FORCING MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OUTSIDE
OF SOME VERY LIGHT MIST IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH IN THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD MARK A RETURN OF DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION AND SOME IMPROVEMENTS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

1050 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNAMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. ONLY REAL FEATURE OF
NOTE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SW STATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT ALL SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER / SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST REGION. CURRENTLY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA IS ONE OF WEAK RIDGING. THIS
RIDGE WILL BE BROKEN DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH...BUT ONCE AGAIN ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS WELL NORTH OF US. 05/12Z KTBW SOUNDING
PROFILE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGING ALOFT LOCATED AROUND 700MB WITH A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN
BELOW THIS LEVEL...AND QUITE DRY COLUMN ABOVE. THE MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS THIS MORNING
BETWEEN 7-10KFT...WHICH SEEM TO BE STARTING TO BREAK UP AS WE
APPROACH MIDDAY. LUCKILY THERE WERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LOOKING EAST AS TO GIVE A DECENT VIEW FROM THE NWS OFFICE IN RUSKIN
OF THE ASCENDING ORION SPACECRAFT LIFTING OFF FROM THE CAPE
CANAVERAL. THE PW VALUE WAS CALCULATED AROUND 1.3"...WHICH DESPITE
THE DRIER COLUMN ALOFT IS STILL A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

AT THE SURFACE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TO THE GULF OF MEXICO/FL PENINSULA PUTTING OUR REGION
WITHIN A SWATH OF EASTERLY LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW.

REST OF TODAY...EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS/FOG OVER THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF RAPIDLY BURNING OFF NOW ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY...AND EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL AREAS BY
MIDDAY. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A
SCATTERING OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MIGRATING WESTWARD FROM THE FL EAST
COAST INTO OUR SOME OF OUR EASTERN ZONES (POLK/HIGHLANDS). PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS ISOLATED/SCT LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPAND IN
COVERAGE FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH WITH TIME. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE
OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY RISING THROUGH THE 70S...AND EXPECT MANY
LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP NEAR 80 BY MID
AFTERNOON...LOWER 80S SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...SCT SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
RESULTING IN A MOST DRY NIGHT FOR ALL. SREF GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
ONCE AGAIN THAT SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG WILL DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR OUR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES....WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH DOWN THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WILL
INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR ALL OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF
DENSE FOG MENTIONED FOR CITRUS/LEVY COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURES BY
DAWN SATURDAY MORNING APPEAR SEASONABLE WITH A MOS BLEND RESULTING
IN UPPER 50S AROUND CHIEFLAND TO LOWER 60S AROUND
TAMPA/LAKELAND...AND LOWER/MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY EVERYONE!

.AVIATION...
AFTER SOME LOWER CLOUDS EARLY MORNING AROUND FORT MYERS...PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL TERMINALS AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS BELOW IFR LEVELS IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH OF KTPA AND KLAL.

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE GENTLE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION. GRADIENT WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON HELPING
A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SET UP NEAR THE COAST...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WATERS. A
WEAK AND RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY HELPING TO REINFORCE HIGH PRESSURE AND OFF SHORE WINDS. NO
SIGNIFICANT MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 80 65 78 63 / 10 10 10 10
FMY 83 65 82 62 / 20 0 0 10
GIF 79 63 79 61 / 60 10 10 10
SRQ 82 63 79 61 / 10 10 0 10
BKV 79 60 80 55 / 20 10 10 10
SPG 78 66 78 64 / 10 10 10 10

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...BARRON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

924 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
THROUGH THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT NO FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED.

ON TEMPS...MODEL CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE THROUGHOUT
WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 051500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 924 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

LARGE AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE KIND TERMINAL. SHOULD
REACH KIND AROUND 051600Z BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. LOW VISIBILITIES
SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ONCE THE RAIN STARTS...BUT THE LIFR CEILINGS
WILL PROBABLY LINGER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL BE THE PATH THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN...LOW CIGS AND
AND LOW VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT AS TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REVEAL AS SATURATED COLUMN.

IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERLY WINDS ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ028-035-
036-043>047-051>056-060>065-067>072.

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...JP/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

557 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
THROUGH THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT NO FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED.

ON TEMPS...MODEL CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE THROUGHOUT
WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 051200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 547 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERLY WINDS ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ028-035-
036-043>047-051>056-060>065-067>072.

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

643 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SETTLE IN ALOFT ON SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS PROVIDING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT BY LATE IN THE DAY,
THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY. THIS PATTERN EASILY SUPPORTS THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER BIAS CORRECTED MOS SOLUTIONS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES
OF TEMPERATURES AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 50 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
ABUNDANT INSOLATION.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY MORE MILD TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO SPATIAL
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST VALUES IN LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS HOWEVER THE
PATTERN WELL SUPPORTS STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE TIMEFRAME IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ADVECTION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WHICH THE NAM
LOW VISIBILITY PROBABILITIES ARE ALREADY FAVORING. FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ANS SUNDAY MORING, HOWEEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT QUITE CONVINCING FOR SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SMALL QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEST
WAVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THESE LOWER
RESOLUTON MODELS COULD BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION AT THIS
TIMESCALE BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH GOING FOREWORD IF IT IS ABLE TO BE MORE DIRECTLY FOCUSED ON
SW KS.

A BUMP TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST TO FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS A BROAD GENERAL MEAN
RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS AND INFLUENCES THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

AN AREA OF DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
MORNING WAS PRODUCING A BAND OF RAIN FROM NEAR LIBERAL THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS. PREVAILING CIELINGS WERE GENERALLY ABOVE THE
IFR CATEGORY HOWEVER LOCALLY 3 SM VISIBILITIES WILL BE PERIODIC
THROUGH THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON BRINGING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 57 26 46 36 / 40 0 0 10
GCK 58 25 46 37 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 60 30 53 40 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 59 27 50 39 / 10 0 0 10
HYS 54 22 44 33 / 20 0 0 10
P28 56 30 44 37 / 90 0 0 10

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

423 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 57 26 46 36 / 40 0 0 10
GCK 58 25 46 37 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 60 30 53 40 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 59 27 50 39 / 10 0 0 10
HYS 54 22 44 33 / 20 0 0 10
P28 56 30 44 37 / 90 0 0 10

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

725 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.UPDATE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH HAS PUSHED DENSE SEA FOG FROM THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS AND COASTAL LAKES...INTO LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. OBSERVATIONS FROM LOCAL MEDIA WEB
CAMS...AND METAR OBSERVATIONS FROM CAMERON TO LAKE CHARLES TO
BEAUMONT...SHOW VISIBILITIES HAVE SETTLED IN AT AROUND 1/4 OF A
MILE. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA
THROUGH 10 AM CST.

RUA

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
05/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A COMBINATION OF STRATUS/WDSPRD FOG
ACRS THE AREA. VISBYS VARY FM LESS THAN 1SM TO 4SM AT ALL SITES
WHILE LIFR CIGS AROUND 200 FT HAVE PREVAILED AT SRN AIRPORTS WITH
CIG HTS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 200-500 FT AT AEX. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z WITH VISBYS BECOMING VFR AND CIGS LIFTING TO
MVFR. KLCH RADAR SHOWS A FEW -SHRA DEVELOPING ACRS SE TX AND
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT DURING THE AFTN AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. INCLUDED VCSH AT BPT/LCH THIS
MORNING WITH VCSH AT REMAINING SITES BY AFTN. SLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NR 20 KT DURING
THE AFTN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS LOWERING
AND FOG AGAIN DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE FORMATION OF FOG
AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING IN A WARM AND HUMID GULF AIR MASS.
CURRENTLY...WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF A VERY LOW STRATUS
DECK...WITH VISIBILITIES AT MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 4 MILES.
A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN LOWER ACADIANA ARE HOVERING BETWEEN
1/4 AND 1/2 MILE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS LOCATION TO
SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED IF 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. ALSO...A FEW VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS LIFT FROM SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EARLY
MORNING...HELPING PUSH WARM MOIST AIR OVER RELATIVELY COOLER
WATERS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN DENSE SEA FOG (VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 NM) FOR
MAINLY THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS.
OBSERVATIONS FURTHER OFFSHORE...DO NOT INDICATE ANY DENSE SEA FOG
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THAT IS KEEPING ANY FOG LIGHT AND
PATCHY IN NATURE WITH MAINLY JUST LOW CLOUDS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
WHAT RUC AND HRRR VISIBILITIES ARE SHOWING...THAT DENSE SEA FOG
WILL STAY IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE
ADJUSTED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXTEND IT THROUGH 10
CST...EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER WATERS...WHERE THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED.

RUA

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 74 62 73 51 62 / 30 30 30 20 10
KBPT 75 61 73 53 64 / 20 20 30 20 10
KAEX 76 61 71 46 59 / 40 40 30 10 10
KLFT 76 63 75 51 63 / 30 20 30 10 10

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

604 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
05/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A COMBINATION OF STRATUS/WDSPRD FOG
ACRS THE AREA. VISBYS VARY FM LESS THAN 1SM TO 4SM AT ALL SITES
WHILE LIFR CIGS AROUND 200 FT HAVE PREVAILED AT SRN AIRPORTS WITH
CIG HTS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 200-500 FT AT AEX. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z WITH VISBYS BECOMING VFR AND CIGS LIFTING TO
MVFR. KLCH RADAR SHOWS A FEW -SHRA DEVELOPING ACRS SE TX AND
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT DURING THE AFTN AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. INCLUDED VCSH AT BPT/LCH THIS
MORNING WITH VCSH AT REMAINING SITES BY AFTN. SLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NR 20 KT DURING
THE AFTN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS LOWERING
AND FOG AGAIN DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014/

RUA

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 74 62 72 49 / 30 30 30 10
KBPT 75 61 73 53 / 20 20 30 20
KAEX 76 61 71 46 / 40 40 30 10
KLFT 76 63 74 51 / 30 20 30 10

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

651 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY
BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION BRINGS
JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR MIXED LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
SNOW INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NEAR TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
94 TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

FAIR WX WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SEASONABLE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 30S. A CONSENSUS OF
LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE
NORTHERMOST PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY REGION MAY JUST CLIP OUR
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG I-94 THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PCPN
WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR A VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX
WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BRING FAIR WX WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

FOR THE MOST PART WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED WELL
PAST THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME. HOWEVER... WE DO HAVE A THE TREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT NONE THE LESS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. BEYOND THAT QUIET WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD
BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BEFORE THAT HAPPENS WE GET MORE WINTER
WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WHAT WE HAVE TONIGHT IS A NON-RECURVING TYPHOON...HAGUPIT...WITH 125
KNOT WINDS HEADING TOWARD CENTRAL INDONESIA. NON-RECURVING TYPHOONS
HAVE A WARMING IMPACT ON THE 5 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE PATTEN FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. NOT TO SURPRISINGLY THE ECMWF AND GFS DO GO IN THAT
DIRECTION. THE OTHER ASPECT OF THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION THAT
SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDING FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND IS THE EXTENDED EAST ASIA JET WHICH FEATURES 180 TO
200 KNOT WINDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA TO JUST EAST
OF THE DATE LINE...NEAR 45 NORTH. AS THAT JET CORE COMES TOWARD
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IT WILL PUMP UP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DEEPEN
THE DOWN STREAM TROUGH. THIS CHAIN OF EVENTS SUPPORTS THE ECMWF
FORECAST MORE SO THAN THE GFS WITH TO ME AS THE GFS IS NOT DIGGING
THE SHORTWAVE NEARLY AS MUCH AS IT SHOULD BE.

THE RESULT OF THIS IN THE SHORTER TERM IS WE GET MUCH COLDER AIR AND
A SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE
GFS IS TO WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM AND KICKS IT OUT TO QUICKLY. WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

BEYOND THAT... THAT UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO SET IN SO A SLOW WARM UP
FOLLOWS.

WEEK TWO FORECAST...(FRIDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING THURSDAY)

HERE IS WERE WE MAY SEE A MAJOR TURN AROUND IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
AND BRING WINTER BACK INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. AS IT TURNS OUT THE
MJO IS IN QUAD 5 DOING VERY NICELY. THIS SUGGEST WARM WEATHER FOR
MOST OF THE CONUS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS LONG RANGE FORECAST BRING
THE MJO TO QUAD 7-8 AROUND THE END OF WEEK TWO. THIS BRINGS COLD
WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
ECMWF 51 REMEMBER ENSEMBLES FROM THE 4TH DO INDEED SHOW THIS
HAPPENING AS DEEP TROUGH RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. SO EXPECT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TILL AROUND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK... THEN WINTER COMES BACK

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

IT SEEMS TO ME IFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG. THERE IS AN
AREA OF RAIN HEADING TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN BUT THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL GET. I USED THE HRRR AS MY
GUIDE AND IT BRINGS THE RAIN (TO WARM FOR SNOW OF FREEZING
ANYTHING BY THEN) BY 21Z OF THE I-94 TAF SITES. THE RAIN WILL PULL
OUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA TURNING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH. I DID NOT DO
MUCH WITH FOG BUT THERE MAY BE SOME IFR FOG IN THE I-94 TAFS
TONIGHT.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

FAIRLY MINIMAL WIND AND WAVE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY WILL CAUSE WAVE
HEIGHTS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PREDOMINANTLY DRY
WEATHER.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

545 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY FOR SOME AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...BUT NOT AS WARM AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED
IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

TODAY...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE MORNING QUICKLY
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS
FORECAST IS THE SKY AND WEATHER THROUGH THE MORNING. SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE INCLUDING RAP...HRRR...LOCAL DLH WRF...AND HOP WRF
ENSEMBLE HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM BRAINERD TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA NORTH THROUGH THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
AND PROBABLY SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING HOURS...WITH CLEARING
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LAMP AND GFS/NAM MOS
HAVE NOT BEEN CATCHING ONTO THE STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING...BUT
LEANED TOWARDS THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS OVER THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL
INTERSECT WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
TEMPS WERE A CHALLENGE SINCE MORNING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING FOR
SOME AREAS. LATEST HRRR IS AGGRESSIVE WITH KEEPING FOG/STRATUS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...AND
GIVEN CLIMO OF THESE TYPES OF EVENTS COULD DEFINITELY SEE CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND CAUSING A SHARP TEMP GRADIENT. COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR ALL TOO IMPRESSIVE...AND IF CLOUD COVER
CLEARS EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT AROUND THE RAINY LAKE AREA WHERE TEMPS
WILL DIP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO.

SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH NEAR-CALM WINDS. IF HIGH PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE PASSES EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TEMPS COULD WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING...BUT
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AS THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHLAND. INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE IN THE BORDERLAND AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

AFTER A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT...OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOTS OF WARM AIR WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE -2C TO 2 ABOVE BY SUNDAY 12Z. IN THE
CONTINUING WARM AIR ADVECTION...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE STREAM
OF MOISTURE AND LIFT AS THE 850MB WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE SHOULD GET SOME SLEET ALONG WITH
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL GET WARM
ENOUGH FOR FULL MELTING ALOFT AND FREEZING RAIN AT THE SURFACE...BUT
THESE LATEST RUNS ARE COOLER ALOFT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY TO SEE IF THIS CHANGES. THINGS WOULD
NOT HAVE TO CHANGE MUCH ALOFT TO GET A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE EVAPORATIVE COOLING TURNS IT BACK TO SLEET/SNOW...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS. SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW COMES
ACROSS THE AREA...AND WHILE IT KEEPS THE WARM LAYER ALOFT OVER THE
AREA...IT IS COOL ENOUGH FOR OUR PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WOULD NOT HAVE TO CHANGE MUCH FOR SOME
MORE SLEET. IT IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING THAT THE FULL COLD AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA TO PUT SOME REAL CERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE WARM AIR KEEPS OUR SNOW WATER
RATIOS VERY LOW...AND EXPECT MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THESE
PERIODS...BUT MONDAY THE COLDER AIR SHOULD ALLOW SOME HIGHER RATIOS
AND BETTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...JUST AS THE SNOW IS ENDING. EVENT
TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE 1-2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE MAINLY USED THE
GFS AND ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST. THE NAM AND GEM ARE FARTHER NORTH
AND HAVE USED LESS OF THEM.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER WE MAY
NEED TO LOWER TEMPS MORE. OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE DRY
CONDITIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY
BRING SOME PRECIP...BUT THERE IS LOTS OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT. HAVE
LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. BY THURSDAY HIGHS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S...AND WARMER YET
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

MVFR STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH CIGS
AROUND 15HFT FOR KHYR AND KDLH EXPECTED TO LINGER AND PERHAPS
EXPAND TO KHIB THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG POSSIBLE FOR KHYR ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 17Z.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND TURNS WINDS TO NORTHWEST CLEARING OUT
STRATUS AND FOG...AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR BEHIND
FRONT. AN AREA OF CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS MVFR CIGS TO MOVE ACROSS
ARROWHEAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFFECTING AS EARLY AS
22Z WITH MVFR CIGS. CIGS VARIABLE IN THESE CLOUDS AT THIS TIME
OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE
CLOUDS AS THEY MOVE CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 27 10 23 15 / 10 0 0 0
INL 25 0 19 15 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 27 9 22 16 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 31 13 25 15 / 20 0 0 0
ASX 31 15 26 17 / 10 0 0 0

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140-141.

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

425 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT AROUND THE RAINY LAKE AREA WHERE TEMPS
WILL DIP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WERE SURGING NORTH ALONG THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN
BORDER AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS WELL. IFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
FOG AS WELL. IN ADDITION THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN SPOTS...MAINLY IMPACTING KHYR LATE. THERE WERE SOME WEAK ECHOES
MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...BUT CONTINUED TO WEAKEN.
SOME BRIEF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PASS NEAR KBRD AS WELL
LATE.

BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE DECREASING TOP DOWN ON FRIDAY BUT
SOME MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. WE DO EXPECT
MUCH OF THE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY LINGERING LONGEST
AT KHYR.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 27 10 23 15 / 10 0 0 0
INL 25 0 19 15 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 27 9 22 16 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 31 13 25 15 / 20 0 0 0
ASX 31 15 26 17 / 10 0 0 0

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140-141.

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

515 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES MAINLY WITH LATE
WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI. THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH AND
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWITCH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEFORE NOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY
TONIGHT AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

947 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

AN AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. LOOKS LIKE THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE INTO KISN BETWEEN
16-17 UTC. THE EASTERN EDGE HAS DISSIPATED SO UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL
MAKE IT INTO KMOT THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING OVER WESTERN RIDGE WILL BRING A
GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

AN AREA OF STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA IS
MOVING SOUTH AROUND 30 MPH. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND CONTINUE
ITS TRAJECTORY SOUTH OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING IF/WHEN THE CLOUD DECK BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER NORTH THIS
MORNING...THEN DECREASED THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

QUIET AND COOL IS THE STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST AREAWIDE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO 35F-45F
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 947 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

HAVE ADJUSTED TAFS TO DELAY STRATUS FOR ANOTHER HOUR. LOOKS LIKE
AN ARRIVAL BETWEEN 16-17 UTC AT KISN. THE EASTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS
HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE. WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TO POSSIBLY
DELAY OR EVEN REMOVE THE ARRIVAL AT KMOT. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST NAM AND MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE INDICATING ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
WILL LOOK AT LATEST 12 UTC GUIDANCE TO SEE IF WE NEED TO INTRODUCE
MVFR CLOUDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

640 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

QUIET AND COOL IS THE STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST AREAWIDE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO 35F-45F
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

MVFR CIGS COULD IMPACT KISN-KMOT BETWEEN 15Z-20Z TODAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

947 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND MOIST AIR RIDING NORTHEAST AND OVER A SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASS STUCK IN PLACE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING PERIODS OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY WILL CHANGE
TO PLAIN RAIN...HOWEVER POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE STILL LIKELY
INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE RIDGES OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
A SECOND SURGE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN WILL
IMPACT THE REGION ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE WET BULB ZEROS LIFTING NORTHWARD AT A SNAILS PACE THIS
MORNING. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET PRESENTLY
CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WILL ENSURE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
PERSISTS WELL INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ADVISORY AREAS. MAY NEED
TO HOLD ONTO ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAURELS
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS ARW AND HRRR INDICATE POCKETS OF
MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION FREEZING RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING THERE.

INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WILL PRODUCE INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT RATES AND
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE FOR LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON BEYOND NEAR TERM TEMP WEAKS.

ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...IT WILL BE MOST PROBLEMATIC TO MIX OUT THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR. GIVEN THE VERY COLD AIR IN THE TEENS ACROSS THAT
REGION EARLY TODAY /AND ANY SIGNIF INSOLATION BEING CUT-OFF BY THE
THICKENING CLOUDS THIS MORNING/ IT MAY NOT REACH FREEZING UNTIL
AFTER 00Z SAT.

WARMER AIR SHOULD WIN OUT IN THE EARLY AFTN IN THE SW/CENT MTNS
AND BY EVENING IN THE NRN TIER - WHERE IT COULD BE
HEAVIEST/THICKEST AS IT LINGERS THERE THE LONGEST TIME.

THE FAR SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...BUT COULD SEE SOME ICE PELLETS AT THE START...OR PERHAPS
VERY SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN UNTIL AROUND 14Z. AT THIS TIME...THE
CHANCES OF FZRA ARE STILL TOO LOW TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY THERE.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC LOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPS ABV FREEZING
EVERYWHERE LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT AS HEAVIEST RAIN OVERSPREADS
THE REGION W/PASSAGE OF LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS UPWARDS BASED ON LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA...WHICH
SUPPORTS STORM TOTAL RAIN AMTS BY SAT NIGHT CLOSE TO 1 INCH OVER
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA. SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS
THE LOWER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE LATEST GEFS AND
ENSEMBLE EC RUNS SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF SHORE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A DRY SUNDAY. RIDGING AT SFC AND
ALOFT IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. THE 12Z ECENS AND GEFS
REMAIN IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING COASTAL DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE BY TUESDAY AND AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES SE INTO THE REGION...THE EC RETROGRADES THE
LOW OFF THE COAST AND ITS RESULTANT MOISTURE AND THE SHORTWAVE
DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PA. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
MILDER...WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WITH A SHALLOW SHORTWAVE AND ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY. DUE TO THIS
DICHOTOMY HAVE ONLY LEFT SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS IN...WITH HIGHER
CHANCE IN THE EAST DUE TO THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES. CHANCE
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER BY WED...WHEN BOTH ECENS
AND GEFS SHOW A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE GRT LKS. NO
COLD WX IN SIGHT. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK MAY BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY ABV NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK...AS
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS.

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN ADVANCE OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW EJECTING EWD FROM
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING RETREATING SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCD WEDGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE GROUND OVER
INTERIOR PA WILL LEAD TO POCKETS OF MIXED WINTRY PCPN EARLY TODAY
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOW EXPANDING AREA OF
RETURNS MOVG ENEWD FROM NRN WV INTO SWRN PA. CIGS ARE LOWERING ON
SCHEDULE...GRADUALLY DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR BY TONIGHT. BLYR
TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY WARM TO CHANGE ANY LINGERING -FZRA TO A COLD
MODERATE RAIN BY LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION
BACK TO SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF LOW TRACKING FROM WV THROUGH THE
DELMARVA LATE SAT INTO SAT NGT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. SNOW POSSIBLE N/W AND GUSTY NNW WINDS SAT
NGT.
SUN...PCPN ENDING EAST EARLY...BECOMING VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR.
TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF RAIN/SNOW.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ017>019-024>028-033>035-045-046-049-050.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

703 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLIER DURING THE OVERNIGHT LED TO AREAS
OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. 10Z TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 20F
ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. TEMPS WERE
HOVERING AROUND 30-32F ACROSS THE SW NEAR KJST AND KAOO.

SKIES HAVE BECOME OVERCAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING
IN THE FORM OF A MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD DECK. AN ARC OF SHOWERY LIGHT
PRECIP WAS HEADING ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AT 10Z AND ALSO
SOON TO ENTER THE WCENT MTNS NEAR KDUJ AND KFIG. THE FROZEN
PRECIP AT THE ONSET OF THIS UPCOMING WINTRY EVENT APPEARS TO BE
VERY MINOR AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST THROUGH
15Z. THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE A GLAZE OF ICE FROM FZRA AS THE
LIGHT RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING /AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NE/.

HIGH RES MODELS AND SFC OBS FAVOR THE PTYPE BEING LIGHT SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF RT 219...WHILE AREAS FURTHER
EAST SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME SHOWERS OF SLEET AND SNOW...BEFORE
THE TEMPS IN THE 900-800MB LAYER INCH UP ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST NW-SE
ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND GREATEST ISENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SCENT MTNS /BETWEEN I70/76 AND I-80 LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING...NORTHERLY LLVL AGEOSTROPIC FLOW AND AN INITIAL 5-10F
T/TD SPREAD WILL CAUSE TEMPS IN MOST PLACES TO STRUGGLE TO CLIMB
ABOVE THE 32F MARK UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING...FCST
MAX TEMPS TODAY COULD BE A FEW DEG F ON THE HIGH SIDE. THAT WILL
DEPEND STRONGLY ON HOW QUICK THE STEADIER LIGHT PRECIP
ARRIVES...AND IT/S PERSISTENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAX
TEMPS ACROSS THE SCENT VALLEYS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE IN
THE 35-40F RANGE.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE REGION.

BROKE OUT FOUR ZONES FOR THE WSW...WITH SOMERSET COUNTY SEEING THE
WINTRY PRECIP FIRST...THE 5 ADDITIONAL SOUTHWEST COUNTIES ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS SHORTLY AFTERWARD EARLY TODAY/.
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AND LYCOMING VALLEY ARE THE THIRD
BREAKOUT...WHERE THE -FZRA WILL CHANGE OVER IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
BEFORE THE RIDGES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WARMER AIR SHOULD WIN OUT IN THE EARLY AFTN IN THE SW/CENT MTNS
AND BY EVENING IN THE NRN TIER - WHERE IT COULD BE
HEAVIEST/THICKEST AS IT LINGERS THERE THE LONGEST TIME.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN ADVANCE OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW EJECTING EWD FROM
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING RETREATING SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCD WEDGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE GROUND OVER
INTERIOR PA WILL LEAD TO POCKETS OF MIXED WINTRY PCPN EARLY TODAY
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOW EXPANDING AREA OF
RETURNS MOVG ENEWD FROM NRN WV INTO SWRN PA. CIGS ARE LOWERING ON
SCHEDULE...GRADUALLY DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR BY TONIGHT. BLYR
TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY WARM TO CHANGE ANY LINGERING -FZRA TO A COLD
MODERATE RAIN BY LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION
BACK TO SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF LOW TRACKING FROM WV THROUGH THE
DELMARVA LATE SAT INTO SAT NGT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. SNOW POSSIBLE N/W AND GUSTY NNW WINDS SAT
NGT.
SUN...PCPN ENDING EAST EARLY...BECOMING VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR.
TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF RAIN/SNOW.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

536 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE REGION.

WARMER AIR SHOULD WIN OUT IN THE EARLY AFTN IN THE SW/CENT MTNS
AND BY EVENING IN THE NRN TIER - WHERE IT COULD BE
HEAVIEST/THICKEST AS IT LINGERS THERE THE LONGEST TIME.

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN ADVANCE OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW EJECTING EWD FROM
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING RETREATING SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCD WEDGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE GROUND OVER
INTERIOR PA WILL LEAD TO POCKETS OF MIXED WINTRY PCPN EARLY TODAY
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOW EXPANDING AREA OF
RETURNS MOVG EWD OVER ERN OH INTO SWRN PA. LOOK FOR LOWERING CIGS
FROM SW TO NE EVENTUALLY DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR BY TONIGHT. BLYR
TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY WARM TO CHANGE ANY LINGERING FREEZING PCPN TO
TO A COLD RAIN BY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON THE
NW SIDE OF LOW TRACKING FROM WV THROUGH THE DELMARVA LATE SAT INTO
SAT NGT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. SNOW POSSIBLE N/W AND GUSTY NNW WINDS SAT
NGT.
SUN...PCPN ENDING EAST EARLY...BECOMING VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR.
TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF RAIN/SNOW.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ017>019-027-028-045-046-049-050.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ024>026-033>035.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

544 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...
SEA FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE
MORNING PERIOD. THE NAM AND RAP MODELS LIFT THE LIFR/IFR CEILINGS
TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INLAND SITES...AND KCLL AND KUTS
MAY EXPERIENCE A BREAK THROUGH TO VFR. HOWEVER...KGLS AND KLBX MAY
EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR IF THE SEA FOG PERSISTS OR ONLY BREAKS FOR
A SHORT PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS LOWER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

ON TOP OF THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY PROBLEMS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDE SHOWERS AT LEAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE MODELS DEVELOP AND MOVE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS SE TX TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO COVER PARTS OF SE TX. SFC WINDS HAVE
INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND THIS APPEARS TO BE MITIGATING
THE FOG THREAT FROM KARM TO KCLL. WILL KEEP A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IN EFFECT FOR FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 15Z.
VISIBILITIES WILL FLUCTUATE THIS MORNING AS BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH. IF DRIVING THIS MORNING...BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING VISIBILITIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING AS A
WEAK S/WV OVER SE COLORADO PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES NEAR 1.40 INCHES TODAY BUT THE
MOISTURE PROFILE IS ONLY SATURATED TO AROUND 900 MB WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT. SHORT TERM MODELS DON`T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP TODAY BUT RECENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD BEG TO DIFFER. RADAR
COVERAGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND SO BUMPED POPS INTO THE 40S OVER THE
CENTRAL ZONES WITH LESSER VALUES TOWARD THE COAST AND TO THE
NORTH. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO WANE IN THE AFTN AS THE S/WV PUSHES
EAST.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES E-NE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THE LOW
EXITS THE REGION...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE TX LATE
SATURDAY AFTN. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA. YET ANOTHER S/WV WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY.
THE NAM AND GFS ARE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THIS FEATURE THAN THE MORE BENIGN ECMWF. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS OVER THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND SLT CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST.

THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH YET ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVING INTO THE STATE. THE
TROUGH WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT APPROACHES EAST TEXAS BUT WILL
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO GENERATE
A FEW SHOWERS OVER SE TX. WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 POPS CURRENTLY IN
THE GRIDS. 43

MARINE...
AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. THE
MODELS ARE FORECASTING MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. EVEN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S MOVING OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS...THE
SOUTHERN WINDS SHOULD SHORTEN THE FETCH ENOUGH FOR THE FOG TO LIFT
ABOVE ONE MILE. BECAUSE OF THE WINDS...THE SEA FOG MAY BE MORE
PATCHY LATER TODAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TONIGHT AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE
MODELS TO WORK ITS WAY OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY MORNING.

THE FOG FORECAST IS TRICKIER FOR NEXT WEEK. WINDS ON SUNDAY DO
SWITCH BACK AROUND TO THE EAST BUT THE AIRMASS APPEARS THAT IT WILL
BE TOO DRY. THINGS MAY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SEA FOG FORMATION
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 61 68 52 61 / 30 30 20 10 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 64 73 55 64 / 40 30 30 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 69 64 70 58 63 / 20 20 30 20 20

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

225 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNAMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. ONLY REAL FEATURE OF
NOTE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SW STATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT ALL SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER / SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST REGION. CURRENTLY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA IS ONE OF WEAK RIDGING. THIS
RIDGE WILL BE BROKEN DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH...BUT ONCE AGAIN ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS WELL NORTH OF US. 05/12Z KTBW SOUNDING
PROFILE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGING ALOFT LOCATED AROUND 700MB WITH A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN
BELOW THIS LEVEL...AND QUITE DRY COLUMN ABOVE. THE PW VALUE WAS
CALCULATED AROUND 1.3"...WHICH DESPITE THE DRIER COLUMN ALOFT IS
STILL A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

AT THE SURFACE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TO THE GULF OF MEXICO/FL PENINSULA PUTTING OUR REGION
WITHIN A SWATH OF EASTERLY LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS MIGRATING
WESTWARD FROM THE FL EAST COAST INTO EASTERN/NORTHERN POLK COUNTY
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS BAND APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF A WEAK
ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BASED ON COASTAL OBSERVATIONS ALONG
THE FL EAST COAST. THE CONVERGENCE HOWEVER IS SUBTLE AND IS A GREAT
EXAMPLE OF HOW ONLY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN MESOSCALE PATTERNS CAN HAVE
HUGE IMPACTS ON A SMALL AREAS FORECAST. PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE INITIALIZED THE RAIN BAND WELL...BUT THEN SHOWED
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITHIN 3 TO 4 HOURS. THIS HAS NOT
BEEN HAPPENING SO FAR...AND DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE HRRR
CONVECTIVE SOLUTION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BASICALLY WITH
THE CONVERGENCE IN PLACE...THIS BAND IS LIKELY TO LINGER IN SOME
FORM WITHIN ITS CURRENT GENERAL LOCATION UNTIL WE BEGIN TO LOSE
DIURNAL HEATING IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO THE
LIKELY RANGE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH 4PM AND THEN BEGIN TO TAPER
THINGS OFF. ELSEWHERE ONLY BRIEF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT AND LESS
ORGANIZED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF THIS MAIN
BAND...THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES ARE RIGHT ON FORECAST TRACK (EXCEPT FOR UNDER THAT
PERSISTENT RAINBAND) WITH UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...
SCT SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY...
RESULTING IN A MOST DRY NIGHT. SREF GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONCE
AGAIN THAT SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR OUR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES....WITH MORE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH DOWN THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR ALL OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
MENTIONED FOR CITRUS/LEVY COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAWN
SATURDAY MORNING APPEAR SEASONABLE WITH A MOS BLEND RESULTING IN
UPPER 50S AROUND CHIEFLAND TO LOWER 60S FOR TAMPA/LAKELAND...AND
LOWER/MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH MIGRATES FROM THE TN VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY
TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES FROM KY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MS/AL/GA.
THE SURFACE PATTERN FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORCED EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. LOCAL
GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL
BE BEATEN DOWN COMPARED TO FRIDAY...HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERIC
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AND EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF UPPER
70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S SOUTH. THE WARM TERRESTRIAL TEMPERATURES...
COOLER SHELF WATERS...AND LIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD ACTUALLY ALLOW A
DEFINED SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW BEING GONE...WILL NOT EXPECT ANY MORE OF
THESE SPEED CONVERGENCE SHOWERS MIGRATING OVER FROM THE FL EAST
COAST. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE DECEMBER...BUT MANY OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOWERS ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SPEAKING THESE MODELS CAN
BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TYPE OF CONVECTION...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED CELLS. HAVE INCLUDED A 20% AFTERNOON POP FOR A
BRIEF SHOWER AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...WHERE LAND/WATER DIFFERENCE IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN THE
STRONGEST SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION. IF WE DO GET A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS...THEY WILL NOT LAST LONG AND SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS
THE SUN BEGINS TO GET LOW IN THE SKY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

.MID-LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT WEAK AND MAINLY DRY FRONT TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SLIGHTLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK KEEPING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. RE-ENFORCING DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MID WEEK
KEEPING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW COLD
THIS AIRMASS IS BUT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TUE-FRI AREAWIDE.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
LOWER STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST TERMINALS...PATCHES OF LIGHT NIGHT / EARLY MORNING FOG ARE
STILL EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE
ADDED MVFR VIS TO THE TAFS FOR KLAL...KPGD...KFMY AND KRSW FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT BY
14-15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT A SHIFT OF WINDS TO A MODERATE
ONSHORE DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR KSRQ...KPIE...AND KTPA.

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE EASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION. GRADIENT WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON HELPING
A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SET UP NEAR THE COAST...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WATERS. A WEAK AND RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY HELPING TO REINFORCE HIGH PRESSURE AND OFF SHORE
WINDS. NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ONLY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL PASS MAINLY DRY AND RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS
FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 65 79 63 77 / 10 10 10 10
FMY 65 82 62 80 / 10 10 10 10
GIF 63 80 61 77 / 0 20 10 20
SRQ 64 78 61 76 / 10 0 10 10
BKV 61 80 55 77 / 0 20 10 10
SPG 66 78 64 76 / 10 10 10 10

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MARINE...BARRON
LONG TERM...PAXTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

200 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNAMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. ONLY REAL FEATURE OF
NOTE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SW STATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT ALL SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER / SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST REGION. CURRENTLY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA IS ONE OF WEAK RIDGING. THIS
RIDGE WILL BE BROKEN DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH...BUT ONCE AGAIN ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS WELL NORTH OF US. 05/12Z KTBW SOUNDING
PROFILE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGING ALOFT LOCATED AROUND 700MB WITH A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN
BELOW THIS LEVEL...AND QUITE DRY COLUMN ABOVE. THE PW VALUE WAS
CALCULATED AROUND 1.3"...WHICH DESPITE THE DRIER COLUMN ALOFT IS
STILL A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

AT THE SURFACE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TO THE GULF OF MEXICO/FL PENINSULA PUTTING OUR REGION
WITHIN A SWATH OF EASTERLY LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW.

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MARINE...BARRON
LONG TERM...DAVIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

351 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT
ONLY TO INCREASE FURTHER IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT 20Z.

A RAW WET NIGHT UPCOMING AS LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE OZARKS
TRACKS E/NE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON SPREADING ANOTHER WAVE OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00-06Z AS STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALIGNS ALONG THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF
ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT. A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION AS WELL. APPROACH
OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL PROMOTE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...FURTHER ASSISTING
LIFT FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL.

THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT JUST DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION TONIGHT. BETTER
THREAT FOR A FEW STORMS WILL EXIST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70 BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT. HEAVIER RAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST
AFTER 06Z...BUT LINGERING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHTER RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HRRR AND WRF-NMM/ARW
BRING BACK END OF THE RAIN INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AROUND OR
SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AS WELL AS
A BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW.

TEMPS...MOS APPEARS A BIT AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE COLDER AIR IN
PRIOR TO 12Z. GENERALLY TRENDED A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MAVMOS
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S
SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON THE DEPARTURE OF THE RAIN SATURDAY
MORNING...AND POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A WEAK SYSTEM ON
MONDAY.

THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE
EAST WITH LIGHT RAIN ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING. WRF DATA LOOKS VERY GOOD WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND WAS
UTILIZED FOR MORNING POPS. EXPECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
FREE OF PRECIP AROUND MIDDAY. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL QUICKLY ADVECT
INTO THE REGION WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
RH PROGS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH A SLOWLY WEAKENING INVERSION. EXPECT LOWER
CLOUDS TO LINGER AS A RESULT...WITH FULL CLEARING OF THE CLOUD DECK
NOT COMING UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AS STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ENABLES
DRIER AIR TO INFILTRATE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A DRY COOL E/NE FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY...WHICH
AMAZINGLY WOULD BE THE FIRST DAY WITH EXTENDED SUNSHINE AND BLUE
SKIES FOR MANY SINCE NOVEMBER 21.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SKIES BECOMING FAIRLY CLOUDY MONDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN JET STREAM
TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DESPITE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
HINT OF SOME DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MOISTURE PROFILES
LARGELY LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ABOVE 10KFT. HAVE A
HARD TIME JUSTIFYING MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH. ENOUGH COLD AIR PRESENT THAT MAY SEE A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO ALL RAIN. REGARDLESS...QPF VALUES AT
THIS POINT LOOK NO HIGHER THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS.

TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO COOLER METMOS FOR SATURDAY HIGHS WITH THE
LINGER LOW CLOUDS. WENT NEAR MOS FOR SUNDAY THEN UNDERCUT FOR MONDAY
AND LEANED CLOSER TO ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPS. DESPITE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...MEXMOS LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH WARMING TEMPS. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER METMOS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS AND TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
FEW OF THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THERE MAY A SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE TROUGH BRUSHES BY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
OF A SIGNAL TO PUT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR THE
TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES CUTOFF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
EARLY WEEK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY LATER NEXT
WEEK...WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE. DOESN/T APPEAR EITHER
SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE
AREA...BUT IF THE LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS END UP BEING
CORRECT...THE WARMUP LATE NEXT WEEK MAY BE TEMPERED SOME.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 052100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

VISIBILITY AT KIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 2 MILES FOR A BIT LONGER.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES...AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 060600Z. APPEARS STRONGEST LIFT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AROUND 052200Z-060400Z AS A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET NOSES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT...POCKETS OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.

CEILINGS GENERALLY 004-007 AGL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO LIFT AS TIME GOES BY AS STRONGER LIFT
HELPS TO MIX UP THE LOWER AIR MASS. AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN AREAS.

INITIALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO
010-030 DEGREES AND INCREASE TO 10-13KTS BY LATE EVENING AS SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

347 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

TEMPS...MOS APPEARS A BIT AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE COLDER AIR IN
PRIOR TO 12Z. GENERALLY TRENDED A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MAVMOS
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S
SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON THE DEPARTURE OF THE RAIN SATURDAY
MORNING...AND POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A WEAK SYSTEM ON
MONDAY.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SKIES BECOMING FAIRLY CLOUDY MONDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN JET STREAM TRACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DESPITE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HINT OF
SOME DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MOISTURE PROFILES LARGELY
LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ABOVE 10KFT. HAVE A HARD
TIME JUSTIFYING MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH. ENOUGH COLD AIR PRESENT THAT MAY SEE A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO ALL RAIN. REGARDLESS...QPF VALUES AT
THIS POINT LOOK NO HIGHER THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS.

TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO COOLER METMOS FOR SATURDAY HIGHS WITH THE
LINGER LOW CLOUDS. WENT NEAR MOS FOR SUNDAY THEN UNDERCUT FOR MONDAY
AND LEANED CLOSER TO ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPS. DESPITE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...MEXMOS LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING
TEMPS. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER METMOS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AND TOOK
A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 051800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

LARGE AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES...AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 060600Z. APPEARS STRONGEST LIFT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AROUND 052200Z-060400Z AS A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET NOSES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT...POCKETS OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.

INITIALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO
010-030 DEGREES AND INCREASE TO 10-13KTS BY LATE EVENING AS SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

400 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER EASTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE/CLEARING IS IN PLACE
OVER OUR CWA. AT THE THE SURFACE...PRE FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE ACROSS KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED TO NEAR 60 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A WELL MIXED
AIR MASS AND SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE.

DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGE
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD...AND SUBSIDENT/DRY AIR MASS LINGERS.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT OVER NEBRASKA WILL DROP
SOUTH THIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COOLER/DRIER AIR
MASS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...RETURNING
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO SEASONAL VALUES AROUND 20F. NAM/SREF CONTINUE TO
HINT AT SURFACE RH VALUES APPROACHING SATURATION AND POSSIBLE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER...AND A DRY BL WILL GENERALLY INHIBIT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. HRRR/RAP CURRENTLY SHOWING NO FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVER OUR CWA. WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT...AT
THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS JUST TOO LOW TO ADD.

SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL TRANSITION THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE WEST
TO THE EAST. LEE TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THIS SHIFT IN FLOW ALOFT...SUPPORTING WAA ACROSS OUR
CWA AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS EASTWARD.

NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN WHICH WILL WIN OUT: WAA WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW OR LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER. I
ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMP FORECAST...WHICH HAS
HIGHS NEAR 50 IN THE WEST AND THE MID 40S IN THE EAST. I COULD SEE
LOCATIONS IN THE WEST APPROACHING THE MID 50S IF CLOUD COVER HAS
MINIMAL IMPACT AND WE ACHIEVE FULL DAYTIME MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY. A RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
LACKING FOR MOISTURE. MOISTURE IMPROVES SOME AS THE SYSTEM EXITS
THE FAR EASTERN FA SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOW CLOUD BASES FROM 8 TO 11KFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE EAST OF THE COLORADO LINE FOR
STRATUS/FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING. SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE FA LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY. CONSEQUENTLY POPS WILL BE NIL FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 45 TO
50. MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A RIDGE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW EAST OF THE ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH
MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST.

THE GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS IT MUCH FURTHER NORTH. ALSO GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR THE REMAINING PERIODS.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2014

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH CURRENTLY
INFLUENCING THE AREAS WEATHER WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. LIGHT NORTH WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC HIGH SOUTHEAST WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 22KTS AT KGLD BY 20Z...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KMCK ONLY 10KT WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST EXPECTED AFTER 21Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 17Z.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

223 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2014

DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGE
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD...AND SUBSIDENT/DRY AIR MASS LINGERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2014

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST FRI DEC 5 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. THERE IS STILL A HINT OF POSSIBLE LIGHT FOG REDUCING VIS
TEMPORARILY AT EITHER TERMINAL IN NAM/SREF WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING
SOUTH AND SHORT RANGE AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FAVORING VFR
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD SUB VFR GROUPS TO TAFS. GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AFTER COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY WITH
AN INCREASING TREND AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1246 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2014

DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGE
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD...AND SUBSIDENT/DRY AIR MASS LINGERS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST FRI DEC 5 2014

DRY AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

A DIRTY SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MID DAY TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER AND SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ALOFT IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THAT DOES NOT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
DEPICT RIDGING FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT THE ECMWF STILL
LAGS BEHIND THE GFS AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE PLAINS STATES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. SURFACE FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY AS
A FRAGMENTED LEE TROUGH REMAINS GENERALLY IN PLACE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OCCURS NEAR
THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST FRI DEC 5 2014

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1131 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY MORE MILD TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO SPATIAL
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST VALUES IN LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS HOWEVER THE
PATTERN WELL SUPPORTS STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADVECTION
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WHICH THE NAM LOW VISIBILITY
PROBABILITIES ARE ALREADY FAVORING. FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE NOT QUITE CONVINCING FOR SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE SMALL QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEST WAVE ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THESE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS
COULD BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIMESCALE BUT THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH GOING FOREWORD
IF IT IS ABLE TO BE MORE DIRECTLY FOCUSED ON SW KS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND 10
KNOTS OR SO.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 57 26 46 36 / 90 0 0 10
GCK 58 25 46 37 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 60 30 53 40 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 59 27 50 39 / 70 0 0 10
HYS 56 22 44 33 / 30 0 0 10
P28 56 30 44 37 / 100 0 0 10

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1115 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.AVIATION...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM THIS MORNING...WITH ALL SITES VFR VSBY.
STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT AEX/LCH/LFT...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...S WINDS 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE WITH
LOWERING OF CEILINGS THIS EVENING AREAWIDE...WITH DENSE FOG PRODUCING
LIFR VSBY/CEILINGS BY 06-08Z FOR BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA...AND NOT IMPROVING
UNTIL POST FRONTAL 16-17Z SAT.

DML

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014/

UPDATE...
A BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. UPDATED POPS FOR THIS AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
BAND OF LATE MORNING SHOWERS WHICH IS NOT SHOWING MUCH OF AN
EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE
ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND INLAND AREAS FROM LAKE CHARLES TO
BEAUMONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014/

UPDATE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH HAS PUSHED DENSE SEA FOG FROM THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS AND COASTAL LAKES...INTO LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. OBSERVATIONS FROM LOCAL MEDIA WEB
CAMS...AND METAR OBSERVATIONS FROM CAMERON TO LAKE CHARLES TO
BEAUMONT...SHOW VISIBILITIES HAVE SETTLED IN AT AROUND 1/4 OF A
MILE. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA
THROUGH 10 AM CST.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
05/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014/

RUA

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 62 73 51 62 47 / 30 30 20 10 10
KBPT 61 73 53 64 49 / 20 30 20 10 20
KAEX 61 71 46 59 42 / 40 30 10 10 20
KLFT 63 75 51 63 47 / 20 30 10 10 10

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1034 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.UPDATE...
A BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. UPDATED POPS FOR THIS AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
BAND OF LATE MORNING SHOWERS WHICH IS NOT SHOWING MUCH OF AN
EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE
ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND INLAND AREAS FROM LAKE CHARLES TO
BEAUMONT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014/

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
05/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014/

RUA

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 74 62 73 51 / 30 30 30 20
KBPT 75 61 73 53 / 20 20 30 20
KAEX 76 61 71 46 / 40 40 30 10
KLFT 76 63 75 51 / 30 20 30 10

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...06

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT AROUND THE RAINY LAKE AREA WHERE TEMPS
WILL DIP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

SKIES WERE GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS LINGERED IN THE KDLH AND KHYR AREAS. THE
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR IN THE KDLH AREA SHORTLY...AND IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE LONGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR KHYR TO IMPROVE TO VFR. SOME BR/HZ
WILL LINGER FOR A TIME AS WELL. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WAS
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE CWA...BUT BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE WAS
THINKING IT WOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH TO BE MORE OF A SCATTERED DECK.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS AREA NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA IN CASE IT HOLDS TOGETHER.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 28 10 23 15 / 0 0 0 0
INL 25 0 19 15 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 30 9 22 16 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 31 13 25 15 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 32 15 26 17 / 0 0 0 0

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...DAP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

322 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT STALLING NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOME 10 TO 15 MPH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT HAVE ALLOWED FOR GOOD MIXING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY.
THIS WIND SWITCH WILL HELP TO USHER IN SOME LL MOISTURE. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
PRODUCE LOWS IN THE TEENS AND MAYBE SOME PATCHY FOG. SOME CONCERNS
TOWARDS THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S MIXED THE
MOISTURE FAIRLY WELL. ALSO A VERY DRY SURFACE...LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
LAST MONTH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL
SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH IT IS A LITTLE HIGH WITH CURRENT
DEW PTS. THE RUC IS LESS FAVORABLE...BUT IS CLOSER BUT IS A DEGREE
OR SO TO LOW WITH DEW PTS. THUS THE FORECAST DOES INCLUDE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...WHICH IS LIKELY THE FIRST
PLACE FOR DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
SOME FOG ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...HOWEVER THERE IS BETTER GROUND
MOISTURE.

TOMORROW COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA...HOWEVER WILL
SEE SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT /850 MB TEMPS AROUND 5C/ INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LATELY THE WARMER MAV HAS BEEN CLOSER TO REALITY AND FAVORED THESE
WARMER NUMBERS FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST SUNDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...

MID RANGE PERIODS (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE AMPLE
FROM H7 TO H5...H85 TO H7 RELATIVELY DRY. CONCERN LIES IN
SATURATED LAYER BELOW 875 MB. WITH WEAK OMEGA PRESENT ALONG WITH
SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS OF -1C TO -3C...INTRODUCED PATCHY FREEZING
FRIZZLE WHICH IS POSSIBLE FROM 09Z TO 15Z SUNDAY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME SHOULD RANGE FROM 28 TO 32 DEGREES.
THE AREA MAY AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN AREAS MAINLY EAST OF A CURTIS
THROUGH CALLAWAY AND STUART LINE. OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER NICE WARMUP. DOWNSLOPING WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD PUSH HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S...EXCEPT COOLER UPPER 40S NEAR ONEILL AND BARTLETT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY HOWEVER WILL REMAIN
VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

EXTENDED PERIODS (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

THE MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS UPPER
RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS. INCREASED TROUGHING ONTO THE
WEST COAST WILL ALSO HELP TO AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM RIDGE.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOME HIGHS IN THE WEST COULD EXCEED
60 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. BY FRIDAY...A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

LITTLE CONCERNS FOR AVIATION THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A SWITCH TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
MORNING. ALSO EXPECT CIGS ABOVE 10K FT AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MASEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

218 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY IS RELATIVELY QUIET IN
TERMS OF MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES. MILD TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY
BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THOUGH IT WILL FEEL QUITE A
BIT COOLER TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS AND 20S. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS TRYING TO SNEAK BACK WEST TONIGHT AND PUSH
INTO THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR AREA TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY AND LINGER
INTO THE MORNING. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS IN THAT AREA...AND ADDED A
BIT OF PATCHY FOG FOG WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH WFOS OMAHA AND TOPEKA
FORECAST. SOME CONCERN OF FOG IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE WINDS TURN NEARLY CALM. HRRR HINTS AT LOWER CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY OVER PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW BUT
WORTH NOTING HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BEYOND THAT...SATURDAY WILL SEE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS START TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A SUBTLE
TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AT 00Z SUNDAY. THIS
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH THIS TROUGH AXIS LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO OVERTAKE THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
WEST.

ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...THERE REMAIN HINTS AT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS. QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR CWA ON
SUNDAY AND AS A RESULT...CONTINUED WITH POPS...ALBEIT LOW...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AS FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
CWA...PER THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST AN ELEVATED WARM
LAYER WILL LIKELY PROVIDE LIQUID PRECIPITATION WHILE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE READINGS FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. PREVIOUS SHIFT WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED A MENTION OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING AND AT THIS TIME...SEE NO
REASON TO REMOVE THIS WORDING. GIVEN ALL THIS...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH LIGHT RAIN THEN
FORECAST BY 14Z AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE READINGS CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING 0-1KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 100% WILL ACCOMPANY 0-
1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30KTS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SATURATED LOWER TROPOSPHERE AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT TURBULENT
MIXING...OPTED TO KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD THEN KEEP US DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF
AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE PERHAPS BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A
LOW POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD PRESENT
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOW IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL TAKE ON
NORTHERNLY SLANT THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND
GRADUALLY START A TURN NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING. NO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1151 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES MAINLY WITH LATE
WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...MORITZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

544 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. A STRONG
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEK WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A MIX OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED
IN A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW STREAMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW PEAKED IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

WEAK WEDGE-STYLE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND WILL BE JUST ABOUT EXTINCT BY THIS EVENING AS A
FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE GIVES WAY TO BROAD TROUGHING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOPS AND GUIDANCE INDICATE PRESENT
AMPLE MIX OF CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A WEAK TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY AS
THIS TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. PATCHES TO AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS WHAT THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE ACCORDING TO A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...COASTAL TROUGH LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT SATURDAY MORNING WILL CREATE A WARM DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE IN THE
DAY. AS THE COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS NORTH EARLY...WAA WILL FOLLOW
THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C BY
SATURDAY AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THANKS TO MOIST ADVECTION AND PVA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. BENEATH
THIS SHORTWAVE...A SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EAST NEAR THE NC/VA
BORDER...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. AS
PWATS RISE TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLIMB
TOWARDS 7C/KM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED. INSTABILITY REMAINS MINIMAL...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND THIS IS ECHOED BY THE GENERAL RISK
ENCOMPASSING THE ILM CWA IN THE SWODY2. TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
HIGH...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SATURDAY EVENING. COOL ADVECTION BEGINS IN
EARNEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPS WHICH
WILL RISE TOWARDS 70 ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY AFTN...MID 60S WELL
INLAND...WILL DROP RAPIDLY INTO THE LOW 40S WELL NW...TO AROUND 50
AT THE COAST...BY SUNDAY MORNING.

A QUIETER BUT MUCH COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO REMAIN HIGH BENEATH THE WEDGE...PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF SUNDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH COOL ADVECTION WILL LIMIT WARMING...AND HIGHS MAY BE
REACHED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE. EXPECT
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S IN THE FAR NORTH...TO MID 50S IN THE
SOUTH. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR VERY LATE...AND CONTINUED CAA WILL
HELP MINS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE QUITE
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE AREA REMAINING VOID OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. INITIALLY A LINGERING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS...MORESO
ALONG THE COAST MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST SWEEPS THE AREA
CLEAN. BEYOND THIS A WEAKENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ESSENTIALLY OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY THUS
A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TRENDS LOOK A LITTLE BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND THE TIMING OF PRECIP. LOOKS LIKE
THERE COULD BE TWO BATCHES OF RAIN/SHOWERS: THE FIRST AROUND SUNRISE
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH...THEN ANOTHER ROUND IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
INTRODUCING IFR STRATUS/FOG AROUND DAYBREAK IF NOT BEFORE...AND THIS
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE HRRR MODEL THINKS
THAT ILM STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORNING PRECIP...BUT THE MYRTLES
COULD ALSO GET INTO THE ACT. THINK THE MORNING PRECIP WILL GIVE WAY
TO MVFR CEILINGS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY NORTH WINDS SUN/MON BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. BECOMING VFR DURING TUE. VFR WED AND THU.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...PRESENT MODEST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS SW ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS MORNING AS A WEAK TROUGH FORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE
PERIOD...BUT RAPID DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH ON SATURDAY...WITH WINDS TURNING
FROM SE TO SW THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT AT LIGHT SPEEDS. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS WILL TURN ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTH AT
15-20 KTS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ON SATURDAY WILL BE GENERALLY
2-4 FT REGARDLESS OF WIND DIRECTION...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

GALE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE NC WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY
MORNING...AND THERE IS PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A GALE OCCURRING
SUNDAY AS A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST.
THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS...AND WIND WILL
BECOME NE AT 20-30 KTS ON SUNDAY...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KTS OR
MORE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC WATERS. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
GALE-FORCE WINDS ACROSS SC WATERS...BUT AT LEAST A STRONG SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PUSH SEAS
UP TO TO 5-9 FT ON SUNDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE WAVE
SHADOWED REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NEXT WEEK WILL NOT BE THE BEST OF TIMES FOR THE
MARINE COMMUNITY AS BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL
CONTINUE. FOR MONDAY A POTENT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY
HIGHER WITH CERTAIN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY GALES. THE
WINDS DO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO SETTLE AT 10-15 KNOTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. HERE THE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS
WILL BE HIGHEST MONDAY WITH 3-6 FEET DROPPING TO 2-5 FEET TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ250-252.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/JDW/SHK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1249 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOW STRATUS AND FOG
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BUT IS HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH HAVE
BEEN RISING SLOWLY...BUT IN THE SOUTH TEMPERATURES HAVE SHOT UP
QUICKLY. THUS HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS
WE WERE ALREADY SURPASSING FORECAST HIGHS. WITH NEUTRAL OR SLIGHT
COLD ADVECTION SOUTH WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...DONT THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE MUCH MORE...ESPECIALLY NORTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

QUIET AND COOL IS THE STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST AREAWIDE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO 35F-45F
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT KISN BUT IS HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...DO THINK WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE...THE THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO INDICATE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL START OUT BY BRINGING SOME
SCATTERED STRATUS AND SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY

NWS RAPID CITY SD

213 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO MT/ND. SKIES ARE PARTLY
CLOUDY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
CROSSES ND...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL MODELS ARE
STILL HINTING AT SOME FOG SETTING UP AROUND THE AREA. THE HRRR AND
RAP ARE SHOWING LOW CEILINGS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND LATEST RUNS ALSO HAVE FOG WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN HILLS INTO NORTHEAST WY. MEANWHILE THE NAM HAS THE BEST
CHANCES FOR FOG AROUND THE HILLS AND INTO NORTHEAST WY...NOT SO MUCH
ON THE SD PLAINS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE OVERESTIMATING MOISTURE
LATELY...AND SINCE WINDS IN NORTHEAST WY LOOK A LITTLE STRONGER
OVERNIGHT...HAVE MORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE.
DECREASED AREAS OF FOG TO PATCHY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...KEEPING AREAS
OF FOG JUST EAST OF THE HILLS. COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN
SURROUNDING AREAS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE EASTERN CWA.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST SD TO
THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST WY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
THE INCOMING LOW. EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPS ON SATURDAY...AS MODELS HAVE A 10-DEGREE
SPREAD FOR HIGHS IN SOME PLACES. WITH SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...KEPT TEMPS MILD...IN THE MID 30S NORTH AND
EAST TO THE UPPER 40S FARTHER WEST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PREDICTABILITY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEAN...THERE WILL BE A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OFF THE
WEST COAST WITH A LONG-WAVE RIDGE NEAR THE CNTRL CONUS.

ON SUNDAY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NRN PLAINS
AND THROUGH THE L/W RIDGE...BRINGING A COLD FRONT AND NORTHWEST WIND
SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING SCT SHRASN TO THE BLKHLS. ON
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE REBOUNDS...BUT WITH A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BRING ANY PRECIP TO THE CWA GIVEN THE LIMITED FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND LACK OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CWA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER LOW COMING ONSHORE NEAR CA. THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A BIG
STORM COULD BE LOOMING ON THE HORIZON FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR
STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...MCKEMY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

309 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED...FOG CONTINUES TO RESIDE THROUGH
NORTHWEST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TONIGHT
REMAINS HOW QUICKLY FOG ERODES AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION. WATCHING THE TRENDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...VISIBILITIES HAVE QUICKLY IMPROVED AS THE
WINDS TRANSITIONED TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AND THE DRIER AIR
DRAINED IN. USING THAT AND RAP 925 MB RH FIELDS WHICH HAVE ALSO
CORRELATED WELL WITH THE FOG...HAVE THE FOG LINGERING THROUGH
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING THEN SLOWLY ERODING
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AS DRIER AIR TAKES OVER DURING THE NIGHT.
COLDER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND 10 THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER TEENS
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...SO
SHOULD SEE SOME SUN ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS DURING THE DAY
WITH A WEAK GRADIENT EXISTING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THERMAL
PROFILES A LITTLE COOLER HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM AND SHORT RANGE CONTINUE
TO FOCUS ON LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY AND WARMUP INTO
NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND.

SUNDAY...MODELS STILL ON TRACK BRINGING TWO PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US WITH THE
SECOND WAVE DIPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AGAIN...MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW IN NATURE AS THESE WAVES
MOVE THROUGH BUT AM ANTICIPATING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG AND WEST OF I-29. WHILE
THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE LACKS ICE CRYSTALS FOR MOST OF THE
EVENT...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SATURATION EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD OWE TO SLEET INTRODUCTION ESPECIALLY IN THE NE
ZONES. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY
MAJOR ICING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY SINCE SFC TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON.

NEXT WEEK...SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH BOTH MAJOR EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOWING INCREASED RIDGING
ACROSS THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
BEHIND SUNDAYS DEPARTING TROUGH...BUT STILL AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. FAIRLY SUBSTANCIAL DIFFERENCES PERSIST IN
THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ECMWF KEEPS THIS ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...MEANWHILE THE GFS PULLS THE WAVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE END RESULTS COULD BE SUBSTANCIAL DIFFERENT FOR WEDNESDAY-
FRIDAY. SHOULD THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFY...THE RESULT WOULD BE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...FOG...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE
LOCAL AREA. ON THE FLIPSIDE...THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF SOLN COULD
SUGGEST VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR
TODAY...PREFERENCES CONTINUE TO FALL TOWARDS THE ECMWF...BUT WILL
HEDGE A BIT TOWARDS THE OTHER CAMP OF SOLNS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

DENSE FOG EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR WILL ONLY SLOWLY
ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A BOUNDARY WORKS THROUGH THE
REGION...PULLING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
TONIGHT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE...THROUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT PATCHY FOG REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP A
BIT.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

339 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FROM THE
MORNING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
TONIGHT. EARLY AFTERNOON RUNS OF THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISE A
SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. AT 20Z/2PM...THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM ARDMORE TO BOWIE TO BRECKENRIDGE. EARLY
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A THIN LINE OF CUMULUS
ORGANIZING ALONG THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE HRRR FORECAST FOR
STRONGER LIFT AND BETTER RAIN SHOWER CHANCES IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST...CONTINUE TO THINK CHANCES OF LIGHTNING ARE LOW. 19Z
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM KDFW AND KDAL AIRPORTS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT ARE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT FREE
CONVECTION. LAPSE RATES HAVE INCREASED A BIT FROM 12Z...LIKELY DUE
FROM DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HOWEVER DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...THINK THAT THE EFFECTS OF DYNAMIC LIFT ON OUR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED. AS A RESULT...LEFT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT THUNDERSTORM FREE THROUGH TONIGHT.
WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AND WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST IF IT LOOKS LIKE
THUNDER IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY.

SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...LEAVING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT
REPRESENT A STRONG CANADIAN AIRMASS...AFTER TODAY`S TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT NEAR 60
DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. BETWEEN LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A LOW-LEVEL
COOL AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND TODAY`S
FRONT...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE COOL LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS DOES REPRESENT
PERSISTENT LIFT...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS FOR THE REGION
LOOK VERY LIMITED AT THIS TIME. DESPITE NEARLY ALL MODELS SHOWING
THE PERSISTENT LIFT ON SUNDAY...THE PROSPECTS FOR MOISTURE RETURN
LOOK VERY LIMITED...AND FOCUSED ON LOCATIONS JUST WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS DOWN 10
PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

THINK THAT OUR BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAINFALL MAY BE WHEN THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOW A BAND OF RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MOVING OVER THE CWA RIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER
THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS LOOKS DRY ENOUGH THAT MOST OF THIS SHOULD
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. AT ANY RATE...THE END
RESULT WAS THAT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST EVEN WHERE POPS ARE AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS VIRGA/LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...IN GENERAL...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AND
DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND SUNDAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH
KEEPING US DRY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LARGE
SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY LARGE
TROUGHS OVER THE FAR EAST AND WEST COASTS...RESULTING IN BROAD
RIDGING OR NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN ALSO GENERALLY FAVORS DRY WEATHER FOR THE
CWA...HOWEVER PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CONUS
ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN LEE-SIDE TROUGHING INCREASING IN INTENSITY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING AND A COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE...WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A SITUATION WHERE WE
HAVE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING ON A COOL LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT...ALBEIT
WEAK...LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BACKED OFF
ON POPS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER
MAINTAINED SOME 20 POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...NEAREST TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN CONSISTENTLY
ADVERTISED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ADVERTISE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
AMPLIFY WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE CONUS ROCKIES IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BUILDING EASTWARD...FARTHER ON SHORE THE
WESTERN CONUS COAST. THIS RESULTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...IN WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SENDING A STRONG BUT COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE CWA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT SHOULD HELP SPREAD SOME OF
THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM WEST TEXAS EASTWARD OVER THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. IF MOISTURE DOES SPREAD EAST AS ADVERTISED AND LOW-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES... LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE LIFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BE SPOTTY/HIT-AND-MISS ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PERSISTS...HOWEVER MODELS ARE ALSO BRINGING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OUT FROM THE CONUS ROCKIES AND OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. DESPITE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
LIFT...WILL FAVOR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THIS FORECAST AND
KEEP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY SUBSIDENCE.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS ARE DEFINITELY STRUGGLING WITH RUN TO RUN
AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF
THE STRONG WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BRINGING THIS TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME DECENT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REGION. THIS IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
IT IS A SYSTEM THAT WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON IN THE
COMING DAYS.

CAVANAUGH

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1137 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014/
CONCERNS...RETURN OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.

A SLOT OF WARM...DRY AIR TO THE WEST IS PUSHING INTO THE
METROPLEX AND SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE INCREASING WITH A
PERIOD OF VFR SKIES DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. KACT MAY NOT FAIR AS GOOD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COULD SEE
VFR SKIES THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF KTUL TO SOUTH OF KLBB AT 17Z
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE METROPLEX SITES THIS EVENING 01 TO 02Z AND
THROUGH KACT AROUND 05Z. EXPECT WINDS TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 10-15
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN NORTH 10-14 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ON
SATURDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
MIDDAY TAFS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AGAIN LOWER
CIGS TO MVFR 1000-1300 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS AND MVFR
VIS FROM AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING. CIGS SHOULD RETURN
TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 50 61 44 57 43 / 10 5 5 10 10
WACO, TX 51 63 46 57 43 / 30 10 10 20 20
PARIS, TX 49 60 42 56 39 / 30 10 5 10 10
DENTON, TX 46 60 42 56 41 / 10 5 5 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 48 60 42 57 40 / 20 5 5 10 10
DALLAS, TX 50 61 45 56 44 / 20 5 5 10 10
TERRELL, TX 52 62 44 58 40 / 30 5 5 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 53 63 45 59 43 / 30 10 10 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 50 64 46 58 44 / 30 10 10 20 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 44 60 42 56 42 / 10 5 10 20 10

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

242 PM PST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WETTER...WARMER AND BREEZIER STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY FALL IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN
IN THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE LOCATIONS SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN TEMPORARILY DRY OUT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE
AREEA...BUT VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE TIME MOST PEOPLE
WAKE UP SUNDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WET STORM SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY...AND LASTING FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A LOOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE OREGON COAST. COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE EVIDENT VIA INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED OFF THE SOUTHERN
OREGON COAST. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF HEAVIER
RAIN WHEN THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL TURN A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY SATURDAY MORNING SO THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD OF BREEZIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN THE
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN EASTERN SKAMANIA
COUNTY...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 1000 AND 3000 FEET. IN FACT...A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES INCLUDING LOG CREEK RAWS AND
GREENPOINT SNOTEL HAVE COOLED SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY. GIVEN QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL LIKELY END UP IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE IN THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY...AND EASTERN SKAMANIA
COUNTY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN A SECOND ROUND OF MAJOR ICING WILL
OCCUR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR NOW FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST...TEMPERATURES MAY
STILL MODIFY A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND END UP ON THE WARM SIDE OF 32F.
SECONDLY...THE NAM AND EVEN THE UW WRFGFS SUGGEST THE 1000 TO 3000 FT
LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE AND
MIX OUT SOME THE COLDEST AIR BANKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. IN ADDITION...NOT ALL THE RAIN WITH THIS LAST SYSTEM FROZE
UPON CONTACT. EVEN THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO JUSTIFY A SECOND ICE
STORM WARNING...I THINK THE COMBINATION OF MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND
SOME LIQUID RUNOFF...WILL RESULT IN ANY ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT REMAINING UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH...AND THUS WITHIN
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONETHELESS...GIVEN TREES AND POWER LINES ARE
CAKED IN A HALF INCH OF ICE IN THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN SKAMANIA COUNTY...THE SURFACE AREA ABLE TO ACCUMULATE ICE IS
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL SO ANY ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE A HIGHER IMPACT THAN NORMAL...AND COULD BE THE
TIPPING POINT THAT RESULTS IN FALLING BRANCHES/TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SO THE MENTION OF FOG FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WAS
MAINTAINED. EXPECT ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR
SUNDAY...AND DESPITE MODESTLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL STAY RELATIVELY COOL...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

MODELS SEEM TO AGREE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY SO POPS WERE DELAYED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONCE
THIS STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A BRIEF BOUT OF WET WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...A
MUCH WETTER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL STAY TO OUR
NORTHWEST...BUT FAR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON MAY SEE
STEADIER RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. /NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. POPS WERE HELD ABOVE CLIMO
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. A MORE COMPACT AND ENERGETIC STORM SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WHETHER OR NOT
HIGH WINDS WILL SURFACE ON THE COAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
SEND ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE REGION TOWARDS MIDWEEK...BUT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET PLOWS SOUTH OF THE REGION...THE FRONT WILL PIVOT MORE
LONGITUDINALLY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ACT TO
HELP QPF TOTALS IN THE VALLEY...BUT PERHAPS CUT DOWN ON THE RAIN
TOTALS IN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES...AND HELP EASE ANY FLOOD
CONCERNS. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD LOWER AND ADDITIONAL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE 4000 TO 5000
FT. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN JET AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DIGGING WELL
TO OUR SOUTH...BIG MOUNTAIN SNOWS APPEAR UNLIKELY. /NEUMAN

.AVIATION...MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SAT. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IFR TO LIFR CIGS DUE TO LOW
LEVEL STRATUS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS
AND VIS UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BANDS. KTTD WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE GUSTY EAST WINDS INTO LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
SAT. HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INLAND TONIGHT
AND COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWER CIGS AND VIS. /64

.MARINE...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS TO 30
KT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS DUE TO COASTAL JET
ENHANCEMENT WHICH COULD KEEP ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH SAT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT A COASTAL JET WILL DEVELOP
AND WE WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE IT WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY LATE SAT MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF A FRESH SWELL AND
WIND WAVES MAY GENERATE LOCALLY STEEP SEAS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A HAZARDOUS SEAS ADVISORY AT THE MOMENT AS
BUOY REPORTS HAVE SHOWN THAT THE WESTERLY SWELL CONTAINS MOST OF
THE ENERGY. /64

A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ABOUT EVERY 36 TO 48 HOURS THEREAFTER.
SOLID GALE GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY...AND THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END GALE GUSTS OR POSSIBLY LOW END STORM FORCE
GUSTS DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL
BUILD INTO THE MID TEENS LATER SUNDAY AND MAY APPROACH 20 FT
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. CULLEN

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY.

WA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL NOON PST SATURDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
240 PM PST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of storm systems will bring a wintry mix of precipitation
to the Pacific Northwest through a good portion of the weekend.
Each day valley temperatures will warm a bit meaning a gradual
transition from freezing rain and snow to just plain rain. A
break in storm systems occurs Sunday but ends quickly with more
winter storms passing through as early as Sunday night and
continuing on through at least the early part of the next
workweek.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Conditions will dry out across the eastern and southern
third of the forecast area while the Cascades...Wenatchee
Area...and areas of the northern mountain deal with a messy wintry
mix.

Precipitation for much of today has been uneventful to say
the least with most midlevel circulations falling apart once they
cross into Chelan County. Regional radar indicates a line of
showers continuing to fill in from Kittitas County southward to
the central Oregon Cascades which are tracking north toward the
Hwy 97 corridor. It is uncertain whether these showers will
survive the trip into Chelan/Douglas Counties but HRRR continues
to hint at some showers during the 23-02z time-frame. Most
locations remain below freezing with a few exceptions. With
wetbulb effects and sunset approaching, it is unlikely any
location will remain above freezing. The showers moving through
the next few hours will not be a major player for freezing
rain.

Freezing rain advisories were extended to capture steady
light to moderate precipitation moving in after midnight and
continuing into Saturday morning. This is a much different setup
compared the last 48 hours which have proved much drier than
expected. This system will feature southeast flow in the lower
levels, moderate isentropic ascent, and rich moisture. So as far
as I am concerned, the precipitation will be certain...now the
temperatures will be a bigger wild card. Temperatures are
typically slow to warm with SE flow in the lower levels however
as the air mass moistens...it has no where to go but warmer. When
this transition occurs will be the challenge of the night.
Needless to say, travel is likely to be slick near the Cascades
and Wenatchee Area. Some light precip is possible in the Okanogan
Valley and Northern Mountains but amounts should be low and
concerns are lower.

One other travel concern looks to be localized along Hwy 2 between
Airway Heights and Davenport which is dense fog. There may be a
few other areas out there, but this looks to be the worse case via
a tour of CAMS and motorists should plan on visibilities near 1/4
mile at times. Temperatures remain near 32F for most locations
north of I-90 so there is also the potential for black ice
redeveloping tonight. Temperatures will not fall much from current
readings (maybe 1-2 degrees) and may even rise or remain steady
for much of the night so we are not expecting a hard freeze in any
locations. /sb

Saturday through Monday...High pressure will be over the Pacific
Northwest through Sunday before getting pushed off to the east
Sunday night. A couple of vigorous but fast moving short wave
disturbances will move through the ridge...the first on
Saturday...the second on Monday. These two waves will result in
more wet weather across the region through the short term.
Temperatures will be on the increase with warm air advection and
should be above normal through Monday.

*Precipitation: Yes more wet weather with chances of mixed
precipitation. The wave moving through the region on Saturday
will tap into fairly deep Pacific moisture and combine with
moderate to strong isentropic up-glide and orographic lift for
light to moderate precipitation. Precipitation will be on the
increase across the western zones around 12z and push across the
forecast area through the day. A cold front will follow quickly
behind. The front should eject into Montana late Saturday
afternoon. Low level southeast-south flow Saturday morning will
eliminate any Cascade shadowing for the lowers east slopes and
the deep basin. The flow will shift around to the southwest-west
by late Saturday afternoon as the front moves through the area.
Drying from the west should begin by late morning, with
precipitation lingering across the Panhandle through the evening
hours. Saturday night and Sunday the area will be in a dry
period, although fog and low clouds will be probable. The next
weak wave will run through the ridge on Monday. This wave does
not have the deep moisture tap nor the lifting mechanism of the
previous wave but will still result in some very light
precipitation Monday afternoon.

*Precipitation type: The valleys up against the Cascades have had
difficulty mixing out the cold air damned up against the
mountains. All indications are that precipitation may be as
freezing rain overnight, but should turn over to snow before
sunrise Saturday...especially for the Methow valley. Along the
the Columbia river and some of the northern valleys freezing rain
may also be a possibility for a few hours early Saturday morning,
but with increasing southerly flow these valleys should switch
over to rain. Precipitation amounts will range from around a
tenth or more for the lower elevations and a quarter to a third
of an inch for the mountains for the Saturday system. Snow
accumulation of 3-4 inches will be possible for the mountains
with possibly 1-2 inches for the Methow valley. For the Monday
system precipitation should be as valley rain and mountain snow,
with very light accumulations. Tobin

Monday night through Friday: Confidence is high that the region
will see a pattern shift through next week. Medium range models
are in good agreement that the longwave ridge of high pressure
will shift east into the Rookies and over the Northern Plains.
This will place the region in a more mild and wet weather pattern.
A pair of very moist low pressure systems will impact the region.
There is still some uncertainty with the timing of these two
systems. There is better agreement with the first system as models
show the region firmly under the warm sector Monday night into
Tuesday, and then the cold front sweeping through around Tuesday
afternoon or night. Models diverge considerably more with the
second weather system. The ECMWF is faster and shows a stronger
warm frontal passage Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The GFS
is much slower with precip redeveloping Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Snow levels will be increasing with each of these weather systems.
A pocket of cold air looks to remain along the lee side of the
northern Cascades into the Okanogan Highlands through at least
Monday night. This will keep snow levels lower to between 2,000
and 3,000 feet. There is a chance for some wet snow in the upper
reaches of the Methow Valley, but confidence is low. All other
valley locations are expected to see rainfall. Moderate to heavy
rainfall amounts will be possible with P-wats +2 standard
deviations of normal and up to between 0.75-1.00 inches.
Temperatures will warm to above normal through mid week. The upper
level trough in the Gulf of Alaska looks to dig in across the
region late next week. This will result in an end to the warming
trend with temperatures dipping back closer to normal by Friday.
/SVH

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A saturated low-level air mass is now established over
the Inland Northwest and most terminals will experience cig/vis
restrictions through 18z. For KGEG-KCOE...low stratus, fog, and
spotty freezing drizzle will be a concern through tomorrow
morning. The threat for drizzle will likely diminish this
afternoon and confidence is low regarding exact ceiling heights.
Further west, low clouds and periods of freezing rain will be the
concern for KMWH-KEAT. The next batch of precip will pass through
between 19-22z with a break until a wetter system arrives arnd
06z. Moses Lake will warm enough to support all rain but Wenatchee
will be on the fence for precip type...especially at the onset. To
the southeast, Pullman is the only site experiencing VFR
conditions and look to remain status quo until rain chances return
Sat morning. Not the case for Lewiston which is socked in low
clouds and will will be slow to recover until tonight when winds
increase ahead of the next storm system. /sb

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 31 37 32 37 31 39 / 10 90 20 0 10 30
Coeur d`Alene 31 35 33 36 31 39 / 10 90 40 0 10 30
Pullman 38 39 33 38 35 44 / 10 100 20 0 10 30
Lewiston 37 39 35 45 37 47 / 10 90 10 0 10 20
Colville 32 34 31 38 29 39 / 30 70 30 0 10 30
Sandpoint 29 34 32 37 29 36 / 10 90 50 10 0 30
Kellogg 34 35 33 38 30 38 / 10 100 50 0 0 30
Moses Lake 34 36 30 40 32 39 / 50 90 0 0 10 30
Wenatchee 31 35 30 39 32 39 / 80 80 0 0 20 30
Omak 30 34 28 33 29 36 / 60 80 0 10 10 30

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Tuesday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-
Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

Freezing Rain Advisory until Noon PST Saturday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Wenatchee Area.