Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/02/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
942 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
TUESDAY MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP NEAR THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RAIN SHOWERS ON TRACK TO COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT AS SUPPORTING
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 145+ KT 20 HPA JET LIFTS TO THE NE. SHOULD
NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS 700-500 HPA TROUGH
AXIS PASSES BY...EXCEPT FOR OVER FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE...WHERE
SHOULD SEE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE 700-500 HPA RIDGE.
LOWS WEIGHED TOWARDS NAM AND HRRR 2-M TEMPERATURES WHICH
TYPICALLY FAIR BETTER IN THESE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
SCENARIOS THAN MOS. GENERALLY AROUND FREEZING NYC METRO AND 20S
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT AROUND 30 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID 30S
NEAR KMTP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES
TUESDAY...WHICH QUICKLY VEERS WINDS TO EAST AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORMS OFF THE COAST OF NORFOLK. ALL NWP APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING IN BEFORE SUNSET.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A BRIEF MIX AT THE START FOR THE COAST
WITH SNOW INLAND. THE SOUTHEAST VEERING FLOW QUICKLY WARMS TEMPS
ALOFT RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX INLAND AS WELL BY 8 PM OR SO. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY HOLD AT THE SURFACE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT OR FEW HOURS AFTER SUCH THAT FREEZING RAIN BECOMES A
TRAVEL PROBLEM. WE DO EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE INTERIOR TO
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY SUNRISE.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE INTERIOR.
BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE WILL ISSUE
THESE ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT (ASSUMING THE FORECAST DOES NOT
CHANGE).
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR IS LESS THAN AN INCH AND
PROBABILISTIC SNOW DATA HAS BEEN ISSUED. ICE ACCUMULATION OF LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER JET WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.
ON WED...THE CWA WILL ENTER THE WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS TO THE N. THIS WILL CUT OFF THE STEADY RAIN...BUT
ALLOW FOR SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DZ TO DEVELOP. SOME
PATCHY FG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS USHERS THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY OFFSHORE...AND CLEARS OUT THE SKIES FOR THU. TEMPS ON THU
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BY A FEW DEGREES.
THE CWA IS THEN IN THE BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING 1040S
HIGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING
SOME WAA AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS WILL KEEP IT MAINLY
CLOUDY FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.
ALL AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX TO START OUT THE
PRECIPITATION FRI...THEN THE COASTS AND CITY APPEAR TO TRANSITION
TO MAINLY ALL RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE INTERIOR
WILL STRUGGLE BOTH TO WARM INITIALLY...AND THEREAFTER STAY ABOVE
FREEZING. AS A RESULT...A WINTRY MIX HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN MAY END WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
AND THEN FINALLY TRACKING OUT TO SEA. THE ROUGH TIMING FOR THIS IS
MON...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN MORE RAIN AT THE COASTS AND A MIX AGAIN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BECAUSE THIS SETUP WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
COOLING ALOFT...THE INTERIOR WOULD RUN THE THREAT FOR A CHANGEOVER
TO ALL SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT EVENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING***
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S OF LONG ISLAND WITH NLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. GUSTS ARE OCNL AT BEST AT THE TERMINALS...THEREFORE HAVE
REMOVED THEM FROM THE TAFS UNTIL TUE MORNING.
END TIME OF RAIN IS ON TRACK...WILL END BETWEEN 02Z AND 03Z AT NYC
TERMINALS AND 03Z-04Z AT KBDR/KISP/KGON. VFR CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH
TUE MORNING. GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFT
SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH MAY BE MORE OCNL...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF NYC.
A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING
THE AFTN. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SN/PL AT THE COAST TO START...CHANGING
TO PLAIN RAIN IN THE EARLY EVE. KSWF SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF
-SN AN IS THE ONLY TERMINAL EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY
ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN AN INCH BEFORE MIXING WITH PL
AND FZRA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVE...AND THEN PLAIN RAIN
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. CONDS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR ONCE THE
SNOW STARTS...WITH A MORE GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR THEN IFR AT
THE COAST WITH THE WINTRY MIX. TIMING OF PCPN...CHANGEOVER OF
P-TYPES AND IFR CONDS MAY BE A FEW HOURS OFF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER. RAIN AT THE COAST AND WINTRY MIX
INLAND...CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.
.WED...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -RA/DZ/FG IN THE MORNING. IMPROVING
CONDS LATE.
.THU...VFR.
.FRI...LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR.
.SAT...CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN FOR INTERIOR IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...APPEARS WIND GUSTS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS
ON NON-OCEAN WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO CURRENT HEADLINES APPEAR
ON TRACK.
SCA CONDITION REMAIN ON THE WATERS ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY
NEED EXTENDING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WED. SCA SPEEDS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ERN WATERS. THE WINDS SHIFT WITH THE FRONT
WED NIGHT...THEN DECREASE BELOW SCA LEVELS THU. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TIL SUN.
THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS...PARTICULARLY ON THE OCEAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
QPF LATE DAY TUE INTO WED MORNING SHOULD BE ABOUT A THIRD
OF AN INCH. A WINTRY MIX OVER THE INTERIOR IS FORECAST AND NO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/TONGUE/JMC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24
MARINE...MALOIT/TONGUE/JMC
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
545 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE CWA LATE
IN THE SHORT TERM BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE CWA ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
WARMING TREND. CLOUDS OVER NORTH AL AND NORTH GA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
INTO TN AND NC LATER THIS MORNING MAKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT BRINGING STRATUS TO MUCH OF NORTH AND WEST GEORGIA
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT.
17
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE MILD BUT RAIN RETURNS ON AND
OFF THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...WITH THE FOCUS ON NORTH GEORGIA. AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT...STARTING THE EXTENDED OFF WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA. SFC RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN
A WEDGE BUILDING INTO GEORGIA TUESDAY AND EXPECT LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH THIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS AND AND LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS WILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY. NEXT WAVE BRINGS THE RETURN OF RAIN TO NORTH
GEORGIA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS WAVE THOUGH AT BOTH 500MB AND THE SFC.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A SHORTWAVE IN THE 500MB FLOW AND BRINGS PRECIP
TO THE WHOLE CWA ON SATURDAY WHEREAS THE GFS 500MB FLOW IS MORE
FLAT AND KEEPS PRECIP MORE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. ALL MENTION OF PRECIP IS JUST SHOWERS AS
INSTABILITY IS LACKING.
WITH THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY HIGHS AND EVEN WENT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AT
SOME PLACES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA. OTHERWISE
TEMPS ARE A MODEL BLEND. CURRENT LONG TERM FORECAST KEEPS TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF MVFR/IFR CIGS HAS SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST GA JUST TO
THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF ATL. LATEST RUC INDICATING ATL WILL SEE
MVFR CIGS FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFT TO VFR BY
NOON. ANOTHER AREA OF IFR CIGS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST GA SHOULD
STAY CLEAR OF MCN THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 06Z MON. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
FORECAST.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH ON ALL REMAINING ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 66 44 67 45 / 0 0 10 10
ATLANTA 67 51 69 48 / 0 0 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 63 39 63 46 / 0 0 30 30
CARTERSVILLE 66 45 66 47 / 0 0 20 20
COLUMBUS 67 48 70 47 / 0 0 5 10
GAINESVILLE 65 46 65 46 / 0 0 10 20
MACON 68 43 69 46 / 0 0 5 5
ROME 66 44 65 47 / 0 0 20 30
PEACHTREE CITY 68 45 68 45 / 0 0 10 10
VIDALIA 70 48 73 51 / 0 0 5 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1156 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...
302 AM CST
THROUGH TONIGHT...
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS DISSIPATION OF CURRENT DENSE
FOG...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS/CLOUD COVER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF STRONG
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE AREAS
WHERE SNOW PACK MELTED SATURDAY ADDING MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS A BIT COOLER MEANING SMALLER TD
DEPRESSIONS THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER UNTIL WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEGINS USHERING IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR THIS
MORNING.
RELATIVELY NARROW RIBBON OF STRATUS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT NOW BUT AM
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STRATUS WITH VERY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR STRATUS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY. WHILE MODELS
WERE FAR OVERDONE WITH STRATUS SATURDAY...AM CONCERNED THAT MAY BE
LESS THE CASE TODAY GIVEN DIFFERENT SET-UP IN COLD AIR ADVECTION.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW AND NO DOUBT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO TWEAK/ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ENSURE HIGH TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE
CWA WILL BE ACHIEVED THIS MORNING EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTHEAST WHERE
EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED. FRONT LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH
DRY OVER MOST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER BY MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON MODELS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
CIRCULATION COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONT REACHING HIGHER PWAT AIR MASS.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT HAVE NUDGED UP POPS. WITH LOW DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE AM
EXPECTING LOWER CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...THOUGH MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY STREAM INTO THE AREA.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
302 AM CST
MONDAY ONWARD...
WE SHOULD FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS 1045MB+ HIGH TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
ZONAL NATURE OF FLOW SHOULD PREVENT A FULL SCALE INVASION OF ARCTIC
AIR AND LACK OF SNOW COVER SHOULD KEEP THE RELATIVELY POTENT SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR FROM GETTING TOO COLD.
ARCTIC HIGH SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY SETTING UP RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ALTERNATING BOUTS OF
WEAK WARM AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS
WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW AMPLITUDE. LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIP AROUND
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD BE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN GIVEN THE MODERATE
TEMPS. OVERALL AFTER MONDAY`S COLD SNAP LOOK FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE PRECIP TUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* CIGS LOWERING TO IFR AT ORD AND EVENTUALLY AT MDW TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON. LIFTING TO MVFR TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AND SCATTERING
SOME TIME MID/LATE EVENING.
* MVFR VSBY AT ORD AND ARRIVING MDW IN A FEW HOURS...THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
* WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE VERY SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS KEEPING CIG/VSBY FORECAST A CHALLENGE. IFR AND EVEN
SOME LIFR IS SPREAD FROM VYS TO JUST NW OF ORD AND POINTS NORTH AT
1730Z AND MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHEAST...THOUGH LOW END
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF IT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA
THAT IFR WILL WORK INTO ORD/MDW/GYY BUT FURTHER SLOW THE ARRIVAL.
MVFR VSBY SHOULD ALSO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH THE ADVANCE OF
COLD AIR BEING SLOW THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING IFR VSBY DEVELOP WHERE
IT HAS NOT ALREADY IS DIMINISHING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN LOWER END MVFR BEFORE CLEARING AT SOME
POINT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WHERE
THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY AND EVENTUALLY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT AND
PROBABLY 25 AT GYY GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE.
GUSTS MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE A FEW KNOTS TOWARD MID EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL IN.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME
MVFR LEVEL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL TURN NORTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY EVENING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS LOWERING TO IFR...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AT MDW. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFTING TO MVFR AND
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SCATTERING THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VSBY DEVELOPING AT MDW. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT AT ORD/MDW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST BY LATE DAY.
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
229 AM CST
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT A VERY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THE COLD FRONT WAS
APPROACHING THE LAKE. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE THIS MORNING...THEN
STEADILY WORK SOUTH AND CLEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE MUCH COLDER
AIR...AND GUSTY WINDS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THAT GUSTS
WOULD STAY JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR
FAVORABLE GIVEN THE STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR THAT A FEW GALES MAY
OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AROUND 20Z...SO
HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WAVES SHUD EASILY BUILD GIVEN
THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR...AND WITH THE LONG DURATION OF
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS...WAVES SHUD EASILY BUILD ALONG THE INDIANA
SHORELINE.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE
RISES ARE SO LARGE THAT GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR A LONGER
DURATION OVER THE LAKE. AS A RESULT WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT. THEN
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE...AND IS POISED TO DEPART THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WED. A PERIOD
OF GALES MAY AGAIN DEVELOP FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE. THEN ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALES ONCE AGAIN.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 2 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1123 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
Sharp cold front was located just east of the Illinois River at
10 am. Temperatures down to 33 at Galesburg, but near 60 just
ahead of the front. As dew points ahead of the front are in the
mid 50s, the rapidly falling temperatures have resulted in some
dense fog formation, although visibilities have been coming up to
around a mile or two. The front should be crossing the I-55
corridor around midday and approach I-70 toward sunset, with
rapidly falling temperatures the main theme. The far southeast CWA
has reached into the 60s, and latest LAMP guidance suggesting
potentially as high as 68 around Lawrenceville early this
afternoon.
Zones/grids have been updated to refine the temperature trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
Strong cold/polar front was pushing SE into southeast parts of
WI/IA and nearing the Quad Cities early this morning. Areas of
dense fog over snow pack over northern IL from I-80 north but no
snow cover or fog over central and southeast IL so far. HRRR model
shows some of this fog moving SE across the IL river valley this
morning but coverage is limited and will leave out of forecast
today. Cold front to reach near Galesburg by 12Z/6 am, halfway
through CWA by 18Z/noon and approaching Lawrenceville around
00Z/6 pm today. Some patchy drizzle or very light rain showers to
occur this morning with frontal boundary, and light rain becomes
more likely in southeast IL later this afternoon and evening.
Highs today to be reached early this morning NW of the IL river in
the upper 30s and lower 40s, while southeast IL has temps climb
into the low to mid 60s by midday with breezy SW winds ahead of
front before temps fall behind the cold front during the afternoon.
Light rain chances linger SE of I-70 overnight and surface temps
to fall below freezing late tonight and give chance of light
freezing rain. QPF amounts are quite light by that time in
southeast IL and brunt of qpf shifts south of highway 50 Monday
morning where small chances of light freezing rain occurs. Lows
tonight range from the mid teens NW of the IL river, to around 30F
in far southeast IL near the Wabash river. Much colder Monday with
highs in the mid to upper 20s in central IL and 30-35F in
southeast IL along with blustery north winds. This due to arctic
high pressure over Alberta and MT that strengthens to 1045 mb over
the upper MS river valley Monday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
00Z extended models are mostly showing a nearly zonal upper level
flow over IL during mid and late week. Strong Canadian high
pressure shifts into southeast Canada Tue night while another high
pressure system settles north of the Great Lakes by Thu. Meanwhile
a frontal boundary stays south of IL over the TN valley into north
Texas and keeps more active wx pattern over southern half of IL
from Wed night through Fri. Models have trended further south with
qpf fields and have trended forecast with lower pops over northern
counties during this time frame. Continue to mention a mix of
precipitation including light freezing rain over parts of central
IL (850 mb temps generally stay at or above 0C while surface temps
near or below freezing), with better chance of rain and higher qpf
in southeast IL south of I-70. Weak surface low pressure ejects NE
from southern plains into KY Fri night and pulls light
precipitation SE of IL by overnight Fri night with central IL then
generally dry next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
Sharp cold front is now crossing the KBMI/KSPI terminals and
should be to KCMI by about 20Z. Immediately behind the front, LIFR
conditions are rapidly spreading in, with ceilings around 300 feet
or so. Dense fog had earlier also accompanied the front, but
visibilities are now more in the 1 to 3SM range for the first
couple hours post-front. Ceilings should slowly rise to above 1000
feet by mid afternoon and any substantial breaks into VFR range
will be more likely after 00Z, although probably not until around
06Z at KCMI. Winds will quickly shift northwest behind the front
and remain gusty, although not as gusty as ahead of it where they
have exceeded 25 knots at times.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1023 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...
302 AM CST
THROUGH TONIGHT...
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS DISSIPATION OF CURRENT DENSE
FOG...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS/CLOUD COVER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF STRONG
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE AREAS
WHERE SNOW PACK MELTED SATURDAY ADDING MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS A BIT COOLER MEANING SMALLER TD
DEPRESSIONS THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER UNTIL WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEGINS USHERING IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR THIS
MORNING.
RELATIVELY NARROW RIBBON OF STRATUS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT NOW BUT AM
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STRATUS WITH VERY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR STRATUS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY. WHILE MODELS
WERE FAR OVERDONE WITH STRATUS SATURDAY...AM CONCERNED THAT MAY BE
LESS THE CASE TODAY GIVEN DIFFERENT SET-UP IN COLD AIR ADVECTION.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW AND NO DOUBT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO TWEAK/ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ENSURE HIGH TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE
CWA WILL BE ACHIEVED THIS MORNING EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTHEAST WHERE
EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED. FRONT LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH
DRY OVER MOST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER BY MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON MODELS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
CIRCULATION COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONT REACHING HIGHER PWAT AIR MASS.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT HAVE NUDGED UP POPS. WITH LOW DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE AM
EXPECTING LOWER CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...THOUGH MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY STREAM INTO THE AREA.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
302 AM CST
MONDAY ONWARD...
WE SHOULD FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS 1045MB+ HIGH TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
ZONAL NATURE OF FLOW SHOULD PREVENT A FULL SCALE INVASION OF ARCTIC
AIR AND LACK OF SNOW COVER SHOULD KEEP THE RELATIVELY POTENT SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR FROM GETTING TOO COLD.
ARCTIC HIGH SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY SETTING UP RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ALTERNATING BOUTS OF
WEAK WARM AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS
WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW AMPLITUDE. LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIP AROUND
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD BE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN GIVEN THE MODERATE
TEMPS. OVERALL AFTER MONDAY`S COLD SNAP LOOK FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE PRECIP TUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* IFR CIGS SPREADING IN THROUGH LATE MORNING GRADUALLY IMPROVING
TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* VSBY EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AS IFR CIGS ARRIVE. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF 1-2SM VSBY AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES LAGGING THE IFR CIGS
BY 1-2 HRS. THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR VSBY JUST UNDER 1SM FOR A
SHORT TIME.
* WEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST GUSTING INTO THE TEENS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AND NEARING 20 KT MID AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY
CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING. IFR NOW JUST ARRIVING AT
ORD WITH SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS. THEREFORE HAVE FURTHER ADJUSTED
ARRIVAL TIME AT MDW/GYY. STRATOCU HAS FORMED IN THE 010-015 RANGE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM MDW-GYY BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS AT
TIMES UNTIL THE IFR ARRIVES. EXPECT THAT VSBY WILL LOWER TO AT
LEAST 3-5SM AS THE IFR CIGS ARRIVE BUT MAY FALL TO 1-2SM FOR A
TIME AS THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. HAVE SEEN THIS OCCUR TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS AT VYS/KC75 WHERE THE PUSH OF COLDER
AIR INTO THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR HAS BEEN STRONGER. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT 1SM VSBY COULD DEVELOP FURTHER NORTHEAST NEAR
DPA/PWK THEN WORK SOUTHEAST AS THIS WAS THE EDGE OF THE WARMEST
AIR THIS MORNING. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN 3-5SM VSBY SO WILL CARRY
THAT FOR NOW BUT 1SM VSBY IS POSSIBLE...LAGGING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
IFR CIGS BY AT LEAST AN HOUR. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST
INTO MIDDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEES AND LOOK TO PEAK AT 20 KT.
MDB
FROM 12Z...
PATCHY STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN...AND HAS SINCE PUSHED EAST. A NARROW CHANNEL OF
STRATUS WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
EASTERN IOWA STRETCHING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL WISC. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT VSBYS COULD BOUNCE BETWEEN 4-6SM BETWEEN 12-14Z
GIVEN THE PATCHY FOG THAT RESIDES WEST OF THE ORD/MDW CURRENTLY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRATUS WILL PUSH BACK OVER
AIRFIELDS AND REMAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. WINDS INTRODUCE YET ANOTHER
CHALLENGE AS OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 14KT EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
HELPED TO HOLD A FEW LOCATIONS UP WITH VSBYS. DENSE FOG CONTINUES
TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...BUT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS THIS AREA VSBY/CIGS WILL QUICKLY LIFT BACK
TO MVFR THEN VFR CONDS AROUND MIDDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY FLIP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST/NORTH...AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM 6-8KT
TO 12-14KT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING TO NEAR 20-24KT BY MIDDAY.
GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
THAT WILL HELP TO FURTHER LIFT CIGS TO VFR CONDS BY EARLY THIS
AFTN AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE A SCT DECK BY 22-23Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER WITH A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING OVERHEAD THIS WILL MAINTAIN
GUSTY WINDS THRU THE OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR AND EXITING OF CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH ARRIVAL OF
IFR CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR 1-2SM VSBY OR LOWER FOR
A TIME MIDDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS AND MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
GUSTS PEAKING AT 20 KT.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST BY LATE DAY.
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
229 AM CST
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT A VERY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THE COLD FRONT WAS
APPROACHING THE LAKE. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE THIS MORNING...THEN
STEADILY WORK SOUTH AND CLEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE MUCH COLDER
AIR...AND GUSTY WINDS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THAT GUSTS
WOULD STAY JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR
FAVORABLE GIVEN THE STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR THAT A FEW GALES MAY
OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AROUND 20Z...SO
HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WAVES SHUD EASILY BUILD GIVEN
THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR...AND WITH THE LONG DURATION OF
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS...WAVES SHUD EASILY BUILD ALONG THE INDIANA
SHORELINE.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE
RISES ARE SO LARGE THAT GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR A LONGER
DURATION OVER THE LAKE. AS A RESULT WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT. THEN
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE...AND IS POISED TO DEPART THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WED. A PERIOD
OF GALES MAY AGAIN DEVELOP FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE. THEN ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALES ONCE AGAIN.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...2 PM SUNDAY TO 2
PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...2 PM SUNDAY TO 9
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1006 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
Sharp cold front was located just east of the Illinois River at
10 am. Temperatures down to 33 at Galesburg, but near 60 just
ahead of the front. As dew points ahead of the front are in the
mid 50s, the rapidly falling temperatures have resulted in some
dense fog formation, although visibilities have been coming up to
around a mile or two. The front should be crossing the I-55
corridor around midday and approach I-70 toward sunset, with
rapidly falling temperatures the main theme. The far southeast CWA
has reached into the 60s, and latest LAMP guidance suggesting
potentially as high as 68 around Lawrenceville early this
afternoon.
Zones/grids have been updated to refine the temperature trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
Strong cold/polar front was pushing SE into southeast parts of
WI/IA and nearing the Quad Cities early this morning. Areas of
dense fog over snow pack over northern IL from I-80 north but no
snow cover or fog over central and southeast IL so far. HRRR model
shows some of this fog moving SE across the IL river valley this
morning but coverage is limited and will leave out of forecast
today. Cold front to reach near Galesburg by 12Z/6 am, halfway
through CWA by 18Z/noon and approaching Lawrenceville around
00Z/6 pm today. Some patchy drizzle or very light rain showers to
occur this morning with frontal boundary, and light rain becomes
more likely in southeast IL later this afternoon and evening.
Highs today to be reached early this morning NW of the IL river in
the upper 30s and lower 40s, while southeast IL has temps climb
into the low to mid 60s by midday with breezy SW winds ahead of
front before temps fall behind the cold front during the afternoon.
Light rain chances linger SE of I-70 overnight and surface temps
to fall below freezing late tonight and give chance of light
freezing rain. QPF amounts are quite light by that time in
southeast IL and brunt of qpf shifts south of highway 50 Monday
morning where small chances of light freezing rain occurs. Lows
tonight range from the mid teens NW of the IL river, to around 30F
in far southeast IL near the Wabash river. Much colder Monday with
highs in the mid to upper 20s in central IL and 30-35F in
southeast IL along with blustery north winds. This due to arctic
high pressure over Alberta and MT that strengthens to 1045 mb over
the upper MS river valley Monday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
00Z extended models are mostly showing a nearly zonal upper level
flow over IL during mid and late week. Strong Canadian high
pressure shifts into southeast Canada Tue night while another high
pressure system settles north of the Great Lakes by Thu. Meanwhile
a frontal boundary stays south of IL over the TN valley into north
Texas and keeps more active wx pattern over southern half of IL
from Wed night through Fri. Models have trended further south with
qpf fields and have trended forecast with lower pops over northern
counties during this time frame. Continue to mention a mix of
precipitation including light freezing rain over parts of central
IL (850 mb temps generally stay at or above 0C while surface temps
near or below freezing), with better chance of rain and higher qpf
in southeast IL south of I-70. Weak surface low pressure ejects NE
from southern plains into KY Fri night and pulls light
precipitation SE of IL by overnight Fri night with central IL then
generally dry next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
IFR clouds moving in from the northwest in connection with the
cold front moving into the area. Satellite trend shows IFR cigs
not very wide, but believe additional clouds will likely develop
in the CAA behind existing clouds, so will keep IFR cigs longer in
the TAFs today. As the front interacts with the surface moisture,
light rain or showers will be possible so have VCSH at all sites
except PIA. As the front pushes southeast during the day,
showers/light rain will end late afternoon/early evening. Cig
heights will also rise during the early evening at all sites, then
things will begin to clear late tonight. Winds will become
northwest and gusty when the front passes this morning. Believe
the gusts will continue into the night so will keep that going in
all TAFs. Low level wind shear occurring around 1.7kft based on
new UA sounding, but is gone in couple of hours, when the
inversion breaks.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
600 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...
302 AM CST
THROUGH TONIGHT...
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS DISSIPATION OF CURRENT DENSE
FOG...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS/CLOUD COVER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF STRONG
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE AREAS
WHERE SNOW PACK MELTED SATURDAY ADDING MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS A BIT COOLER MEANING SMALLER TD
DEPRESSIONS THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER UNTIL WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEGINS USHERING IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR THIS
MORNING.
RELATIVELY NARROW RIBBON OF STRATUS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT NOW BUT AM
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STRATUS WITH VERY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR STRATUS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY. WHILE MODELS
WERE FAR OVERDONE WITH STRATUS SATURDAY...AM CONCERNED THAT MAY BE
LESS THE CASE TODAY GIVEN DIFFERENT SET-UP IN COLD AIR ADVECTION.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW AND NO DOUBT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO TWEAK/ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ENSURE HIGH TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE
CWA WILL BE ACHIEVED THIS MORNING EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTHEAST WHERE
EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED. FRONT LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH
DRY OVER MOST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER BY MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON MODELS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
CIRCULATION COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONT REACHING HIGHER PWAT AIR MASS.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT HAVE NUDGED UP POPS. WITH LOW DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE AM
EXPECTING LOWER CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...THOUGH MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY STREAM INTO THE AREA.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
302 AM CST
MONDAY ONWARD...
WE SHOULD FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS 1045MB+ HIGH TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
ZONAL NATURE OF FLOW SHOULD PREVENT A FULL SCALE INVASION OF ARCTIC
AIR AND LACK OF SNOW COVER SHOULD KEEP THE RELATIVELY POTENT SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR FROM GETTING TOO COLD.
ARCTIC HIGH SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY SETTING UP RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ALTERNATING BOUTS OF
WEAK WARM AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS
WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW AMPLITUDE. LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIP AROUND
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD BE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN GIVEN THE MODERATE
TEMPS. OVERALL AFTER MONDAY`S COLD SNAP LOOK FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE PRECIP TUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARND 10-14KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20KT LULL
IN GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 12-15Z.
* WINDS QUICKLY TURN WEST/NORTHWEST MIDDAY/AFTN...GUSTS DEVELOPING
TO 20-24KT.
* PATCHY IFR CIGS...AND MAY PERSIST THRU DAYBREAK. A FEW POCKETS
OF LIFR CIGS WEST OF ORD/MDW.
* PATCHY FOG OVERN...WITH VSBYS REDUCED TO 2-4SM AT TIMES. WINDS
SHUD KEEP FOG MOVING AND NOT REMAIN STATIONARY.
* PATCHY MVFR CIGS SHORTLY AFT DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
EARLY AFTN.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
PATCHY STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN...AND HAS SINCE PUSHED EAST. A NARROW CHANNEL OF
STRATUS WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
EASTERN IOWA STRETCHING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL WISC. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT VSBYS COULD BOUNCE BETWEEN 4-6SM BETWEEN 12-14Z
GIVEN THE PATCHY FOG THAT RESIDES WEST OF THE ORD/MDW CURRENTLY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRATUS WILL PUSH BACK OVER
AIRFIELDS AND REMAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. WINDS INTRODUCE YET ANOTHER
CHALLENGE AS OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 14KT EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
HELPED TO HOLD A FEW LOCATIONS UP WITH VSBYS. DENSE FOG CONTINUES
TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...BUT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS THIS AREA VSBY/CIGS WILL QUICKLY LIFT BACK
TO MVFR THEN VFR CONDS AROUND MIDDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY FLIP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST/NORTH...AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM 6-8KT
TO 12-14KT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING TO NEAR 20-24KT BY MIDDAY.
GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
THAT WILL HELP TO FURTHER LIFT CIGS TO VFR CONDS BY EARLY THIS
AFTN AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE A SCT DECK BY 22-23Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER WITH A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING OVERHEAD THIS WILL MAINTAIN
GUSTY WINDS THRU THE OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN VSBY FORECAST THRU 15Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/GUSTS DEVELOPING AFT
DAYBREAK.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS LIFTING TO VFR AFT 20Z.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST BY LATE DAY.
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
229 AM CST
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT A VERY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THE COLD FRONT WAS
APPROACHING THE LAKE. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE THIS MORNING...THEN
STEADILY WORK SOUTH AND CLEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE MUCH COLDER
AIR...AND GUSTY WINDS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THAT GUSTS
WOULD STAY JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR
FAVORABLE GIVEN THE STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR THAT A FEW GALES MAY
OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AROUND 20Z...SO
HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WAVES SHUD EASILY BUILD GIVEN
THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR...AND WITH THE LONG DURATION OF
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS...WAVES SHUD EASILY BUILD ALONG THE INDIANA
SHORELINE.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE
RISES ARE SO LARGE THAT GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR A LONGER
DURATION OVER THE LAKE. AS A RESULT WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT. THEN
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE...AND IS POISED TO DEPART THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WED. A PERIOD
OF GALES MAY AGAIN DEVELOP FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE. THEN ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALES ONCE AGAIN.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021 UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...2 PM SUNDAY TO 2
PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...2 PM SUNDAY TO 9
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
551 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
Strong cold/polar front was pushing se into southeast parts of
WI/IA and nearing the Quad Cities early this morning. Areas of
dense fog over snow pack over northern IL from I-80 north but no
snow cover or fog over central and southeast IL so far. HRRR model
shows some of this fog moving se across the IL river valley this
morning but coverage is limited and will leave out of forecast
today. Cold front to reach near Galesburg by 12Z/6 am, halfway
through CWA by 18Z/noon and approaching Lawrenceville around
00Z/6 pm today. Some patchy drizzle or very light rain showers to
occur this morning with frontal boundary, and light rain becomes
more likely in southeast IL later this afternoon and evening.
Highs today to be reached early this morning nw of the IL river in
the upper 30s and lower 40s, while southeast IL has temps climb
into the low to mid 60s by midday with breezy sw winds ahead of
front before temps fall behind the cold front during the afternoon.
Light rain chances linger se of I-70 overnight and surface temps
to fall below freezing late tonight and give chance of light
freezing rain. QPF amounts are quite light by that time in
southeast IL and brunt of qpf shifts south of highway 50 Monday
morning where small chances of light freezing rain occurs. Lows
tonight range from the mid teens nw of the IL river, to around 30F
in far southeast IL near the Wabash river. Much colder Monday with
highs in the mid to upper 20s in central IL and 30-35F in
southeast IL along with blustery north winds. This due to arctic
high pressure over Alberta and MT that strengthens to 1045 mb over
the upper MS river valley Monday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
00Z extended models are mostly showing a nearly zonal upper level
flow over IL during mid and late week. Strong Canadian high
pressure shifts into southeast Canada Tue night while another high
pressure system settles north of the Great Lakes by Thu. Meanwhile
a frontal boundary stays south of IL over the TN valley into north
Texas and keeps more active wx pattern over southern half of IL
from Wed night through Fri. Models have trended further south with
qpf fields and have trended forecast with lower pops over northern
counties during this time frame. Continue to mention a mix of
precipitation including light freezing rain over parts of central
IL (850 mb temps generally stay at or above 0C while surface temps
near or below freezing), with better chance of rain and higher qpf
in southeast IL south of I-70. Weak surface low pressure ejects ne
from southern plains into KY Fri night and pulls light
precipitation se of IL by overnight Fri night with central IL then
generally dry next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
IFR clouds moving in from the northwest in connection with the
cold front moving into the area. Satellite trend shows IFR cigs
not very wide, but believe additional clouds will likely develop
in the CAA behind existing clouds, so will keep IFR cigs longer in
the TAFs today. As the front interacts with the surface moisture,
light rain or showers will be possible so have VCSH at all sites
except PIA. As the front pushes southeast during the day,
showers/light rain will end late afternoon/early evening. Cig
heights will also rise during the early evening at all sites, then
things will begin to clear late tonight. Winds will become
northwest and gusty when the front passes this morning. Believe
the gusts will continue into the night so will keep that going in
all TAFs. Low level wind shear occurring around 1.7kft based on
new UA sounding, but is gone in couple of hours, when the
inversion breaks.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO UPDATE
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
926 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
HAVE LOWERED MINS MANY AREAS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUNGE AT OR JUST BELOW FCST MINS IN A FEW SITES.
CONCERNS MLI COULD BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER GIVEN DRY AIR AND FAVORABLE
E/SE WIND COMPONENT. ALSO WATCHING STRATUS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN ADVANCING
TOWARD FAR EASTERN CWA ATTIM. NAM AND RAP MODEL LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
HAVE DECENT HANDLE AND SUPPORT BRUNT OF THIS CLOUD DECK TO BRUSH
NORTHWEST IL PORTION OF CWA LATE THIS EVE INTO OVERNIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH IN DEVELOPING SE/S WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
HIGH. COULD SEE SOME STRATUS FRAGMENTS AS FAR WEST AS NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR A TIME LATER TNGT. OTHERWISE... SOME MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTHERN CWA. LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRATUS
OVER MO POSSIBLY LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER AREA IN STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS COULD HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS TO HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP TO BE SENT SOON.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
A VERY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON COURTESY OF A 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER MN AND WI.
DENSE HIGH CLOUD COVER FILTERING THE LOW DECEMBER SUN ANGLE AND
LIGHT WINDS HAD LIMITED WARMING TO ONLY IN THE MID TEENS TO AROUND
20 AS OF 2 PM WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. A FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING
IN THE PLAINS WILL REPLACE THE HIGH WITH A RETURN FLOW AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
FOCUS REMAINS ON TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AXIS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA...ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF CLEARING SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES UPSTREAM ACROSS
THE NEB AND KS...WOULD INDICATE A PERIOD OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS EVENING. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...THE VERY DRY AIRMASS AND
LIGHT NE WINDS WILL LEAD TO RAPID COOLING THIS EVENING AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. THE QUESTION WILL THEN BE HOW FAST THE
NEXT ROUND OF CI OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FOR NOW...WILL COUNT ON THE FAST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO SPREAD THE SHIELD OF AT LEAST THIN CI OVER THE DAKOTAS
TO REACH INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING MUCH LOWER. TEMPERATURES MAY THEN BECOME STEADY AROUND
SUNRISE AS A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP. FORECAST MINS FROM AROUND
7 NORTH TO 17 IN THE FAR SOUTH WOULD STILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING...WHICH WOUND UP SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE THE EVEN WARMEST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY/S FORECAST CYCLE.
TUESDAY...SOUTH WINDS AND DEEP WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY...BUT LIKELY STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE THINNER THAN TODAY. WITH SNOW COVER NEARLY
GONE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO OFFSET WARMING...BLENDED MODEL HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE FAR NORTH AND 30S ELSEWHERE LOOK
REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
FOR THE WEEK AHEAD...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI THEN
NEAR AVG TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ON THU WHEN LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP ON SUN AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY...A ~125 KT JET STREAK WILL MOVE RIGHT ACROSS IOWA BUT
MOST OF THE APPRECIABLE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OVER MN AND WI. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP CHANCES NORTH AS WELL.
PRIMARY SENSIBLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO NW WINDS WHICH WILL USHER
IN COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN. 850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM +2 C TO -6 C
BY AFTN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY..THE 300 MB PATTERN WILL TRANSITION INTO A SPLIT
FLOW WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH BRINGING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT. AT
THE LOW-LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND TRAVERSE THE PLAINS. SW 850 MB WINDS WILL RESPOND TO AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP. SFC FLOW WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE
E/SE...SLOWING SFC WARMING ON THU WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAY. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH THE LOWER LEVEL
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL REACH INTO THE MIDWEST.
LATEST 12.1/12Z MODEL RUNS KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY. ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF STILL HAS LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE CWA THU/THU NIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
SFC-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SATURATION IN
THIS LAYER BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE THU EVENING WHEN LAYERED
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE HAS ALREADY PUSHED EAST OF AREA. IF LIGHT
PRECIP WERE TO OCCUR...MAY HAVE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH 850 MB WARM
NOSE IN PLACE. INCLUDED -RA/-FZRA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ON THU.
SATURDAY...850-500 MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...SO DRY AND CALM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH GIVEN LACK OF
ANY NOTABLE THERMAL ADVECTION AND STEADY 1000-500 THICKNESSES
BETWEEN 540-546 DAM. CONSENSUS HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SUNDAY...POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND INCREASE TO 8-14 KTS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1229 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
SURFACE FRONT GRADUALLY EDGING SOUTHEASTWARD...THOUGH FORWARD
SPEED HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY GIVEN SURFACE BOUNDARY ALIGNED WITH
UPPER FLOW PATTERN. FRONTAL POSITION AT 18Z JUST SOUTH OF A
PITTSBURG KS-COFFEYVILLE KS LINE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY GENERALLY HAVE BEEN REACHED. DIABATIC EFFECTS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE A FEW DEGREES...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE GIVEN STRONG
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING GIVEN PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX
TEMPS...HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS/ETC...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SF
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THE
COLD FRONT IS AHEAD OF GUIDANCE AND EVEN AHEAD OF PROJECTIONS JUST
A FEW HOURS AGO. THE FRONT IS REALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE. FEEL THE HRRR HAS ONE OF THE BEST GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS AND
HAVE USED THAT AS A FIRST GUESS...MODIFYING SLIGHTLY FOR HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE AND HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. MOST OF THE STATE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
30S. THE FRONT WILL SLOW SLIGHTLY AS THE WINDS COMPONENT BECOMES
LESS PERPENDICULAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS CAUSING THAT AREA TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR LONGER TODAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
MONDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE BUT STAY SLIGHTLY BREEZY DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING.
BY TUESDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
WITH 40S EXPECTED.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED IS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WHICH
WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST
AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL STAY IN THE
40S AND 50S WHILE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
OVERNIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED
SNOW AS A POTENTIAL WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND RAIN
DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY.
WHILE OUT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF KANSAS COULD BE NEXT SUNDAY. WILL WANT
TO WATCH LATER FORECASTS TO SEE HOW THIS DISTURBANCE EVOLVES WITH
LATER GUIDANCE.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
NARROW BAND OF LOW END MVFR/HIGH END IFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ALONG
AND ABOUT 100 MILES AREAR OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...THAT WAS LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF A KCOU...KFSK...KPPF...KSWO LINE AT 18 UTC. MVFR
CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED AT KRSL...KSLN...KHUT. INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2K AGL WILL LINGER AT KICT THROUGH 1930-20 UTC BASED ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS...NARRE AND SREF...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
EXPECT MARGINAL IFR/LOW END MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 9 AGL AND 12 AGL TO
LINGER AT KCNU UNTIL ABOUT 22-23 UTC...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. ONLY OTHER AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD IS
WITH RESPECT TO WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 28-32KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY 00 UTC.
SF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 16 31 16 44 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 12 30 15 44 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 14 29 15 42 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 18 32 17 44 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 18 32 17 45 / 10 0 0 0
RUSSELL 12 29 14 46 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 13 30 15 46 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 15 31 15 43 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 13 30 15 43 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 20 33 23 46 / 10 10 0 0
CHANUTE 18 32 19 44 / 10 0 0 0
IOLA 18 31 19 43 / 10 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 18 33 21 45 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1000 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
16Z VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/2
OF THE AREA WITH A THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
AREA. THE CIRRUS IS THINNER THEN EXPECTED THUS A SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY FOR THEM. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/4 OF THE AREA WITH CIRRUS OVERHEAD FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LESS CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA.
LATEST 15Z RUN OF THE RUC/HRRR STILL NOT CAPTURING THE COLDER
TEMPS ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST (FLAGLER) BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER
TIGHT WITH LIMON AT 50 DEGREES AND MESONET SITE TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THEM IN THE UPPER TEENS. OTHERWISE ITS PRETTY GOOD AND STUCK
CLOSE TO IT FOR THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
JUST GETTING A REPORT OF FLURRIES IN THE GOODLAND AREA AS WELL AS
WRAY AND SAINT FRANCIS. WILL NEED TO ADD A MENTION FOR AREAS UNDER
STRATUS.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT PRESENT TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
UPDATE SENT TO REFLECT FASTER FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN
THE RUC WHICH IS ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL TO ACCURATELY REFLECT
TEMPERATURES/WINDS/DEWPOINTS/STRATUS COVERAGE AND FOG IS TOO
SLOW...ESPECIALLY AROUND FLAGLER WHERE TEMPS MUCH COLDER COMPARED
TO MODEL FORECAST. OTHERWISE ITS PRETTY GOOD...HOPEFULLY THE 15Z
RUN WILL BE BETTER.
GENERAL IDEA IS FOR NARROW CORRIDOR OF FOG ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST/SOUTHWEST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING. REST OF THE AREA THAT ISNT UNDER A LOW
BLANKET OF STRATUS WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO CONTEND
WITH. TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
FUTURE UPDATES LIKELY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
UPDATE TO FORECAST SENT TO ADJUST TEMPS/WINDS FROM LATEST OBS DUE
TO FRONT PUSHING THRU THE AREA. TEMPS RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO
LOW 20S UNDER CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME BREAKS OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEBRASKA THAT SHOULD WORK INTO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATER TODAY. FOG IN OBS...SO HAVE KEPT IN MENTION OF FOR
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
A COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH THROUGH THE TRI STATE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT...A ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL LAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE DOES SET UP TO OUR EAST
BY TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WARMUP TO ENSUE...BUT NOT AS WARM
AS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...A LARGE AREA
OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS DOES FOLLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WITHIN THE
LAYER OF CLOUDS...OBS ACROSS NEBRASKA ARE SHOWING FOG AND EVEN SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES...SO WILL HAVE MENTION IN FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE
NW/SE ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY PUT FOCUS OF BULK
OF CLOUD SHIELD...OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN ZONES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AND WILL SETTLE TO OUR EAST GOING INTO MONDAY.
BY TONIGHT AS RIDGE FORCING SETS UP ESE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...FLOW
INTO EASTERN COLORADO/NW KANSAS/SW NEBRASKA DOES INTERACT WITH
REMAINING FRONTAL MOISTURE. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THESE AREAS WILL
PRODUCE A BIT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL GOING INTO THE FIRST FEW HRS MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ENDING. ANY SNOWFALL TOTALS RECEIVED WILL BE LIGHT ON
THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR LESS AND BULK WILL OCCUR OVER THE
COUNTIES OF YUMA CO...DUNDY NEBRASKA AND CHEYENNE KS. LINGERING
CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE RIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS AND WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER MAIN WEATHER FACTORS FROM TODAY ON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FROPA OCCURRING THIS MORNING...THE CWA
WILL SEE EARLY HIGHS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL BE
A CHANGE FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ON THE TUNE OF A 35 TO 40 DEGREE
DOWNWARD SHIFT FOR HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
GOING INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH RIDGE SETTING UP TO OUR
EAST...AREA WILL SEE A REBOUND IN TEMPS ONLY TO THE 30S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS MONDAY...BUT INCREASE GOING INTO TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AND MORE CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL HIGHS GOING INTO TUESDAY
WILL BOUNCE BACK SHARPLY IN THE 50-60 DEGREE RANGE WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S. BOTH OF THESE ARE ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED FOR
THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON MONDAY WITH SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED TODAY WITH 10 TO
15 MPH TONIGHT. THESE SPEEDS TONIGHT COMBINED WITH EXPECTED LOWS
WILL GIVE THE TRI STATE REGION WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
OVERALL...UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK. BY FRIDAY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST...DISCONTINUING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...SHIFTING IT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TRI STATE AREA DISRUPTING THE WARMING TREND. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA...BUT ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE
TYPE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WITH THE
EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SURFACE MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES...WILL BE ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN
PART. HOWEVER STILL NEED A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS TO BETTER
PINPOINT THE PRECIPITATION DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
KGLD...MVFR CIGS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH ROUGHLY 22Z WITH WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST GUSTING 25KTS. MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW FLURRIES.
AFTER 22Z EXPECTING NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS WITH A MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS. WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THEN
SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS. CIGS LOWER TO
AROUND 4K FT OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
REMAIN VFR.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING 25KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 22Z. AFTER 22Z
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS SLOWLY VEER TO THE EAST AROUND 13Z
AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...SPEEDS AROUND
06KTS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL BECOME BROKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CANT
RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE BUT RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
920 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
16Z VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/2
OF THE AREA WITH A THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
AREA. THE CIRRUS IS THINNER THEN EXPECTED THUS A SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY FOR THEM. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/4 OF THE AREA WITH CIRRUS OVERHEAD FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LESS CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA.
LATEST 15Z RUN OF THE RUC/HRRR STILL NOT CAPTURING THE COLDER
TEMPS ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST (FLAGLER) BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER
TIGHT WITH LIMON AT 50 DEGREES AND MESONET SITE TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THEM IN THE UPPER TEENS. OTHERWISE ITS PRETTY GOOD AND STUCK
CLOSE TO IT FOR THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
JUST GETTING A REPORT OF FLURRIES IN THE GOODLAND AREA AS WELL AS
WRAY AND SAINT FRANCIS. WILL NEED TO ADD A MENTION FOR AREAS UNDER
STRATUS.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT PRESENT TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
UPDATE SENT TO REFLECT FASTER FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN
THE RUC WHICH IS ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL TO ACCURATELY REFLECT
TEMPERATURES/WINDS/DEWPOINTS/STRATUS COVERAGE AND FOG IS TOO
SLOW...ESPECIALLY AROUND FLAGLER WHERE TEMPS MUCH COLDER COMPARED
TO MODEL FORECAST. OTHERWISE ITS PRETTY GOOD...HOPEFULLY THE 15Z
RUN WILL BE BETTER.
GENERAL IDEA IS FOR NARROW CORRIDOR OF FOG ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST/SOUTHWEST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING. REST OF THE AREA THAT ISNT UNDER A LOW
BLANKET OF STRATUS WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO CONTEND
WITH. TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
FUTURE UPDATES LIKELY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
UPDATE TO FORECAST SENT TO ADJUST TEMPS/WINDS FROM LATEST OBS DUE
TO FRONT PUSHING THRU THE AREA. TEMPS RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO
LOW 20S UNDER CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME BREAKS OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEBRASKA THAT SHOULD WORK INTO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATER TODAY. FOG IN OBS...SO HAVE KEPT IN MENTION OF FOR
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
A COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH THROUGH THE TRI STATE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT...A ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL LAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE DOES SET UP TO OUR EAST
BY TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WARMUP TO ENSUE...BUT NOT AS WARM
AS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...A LARGE AREA
OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS DOES FOLLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WITHIN THE
LAYER OF CLOUDS...OBS ACROSS NEBRASKA ARE SHOWING FOG AND EVEN SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES...SO WILL HAVE MENTION IN FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE
NW/SE ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY PUT FOCUS OF BULK
OF CLOUD SHIELD...OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN ZONES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AND WILL SETTLE TO OUR EAST GOING INTO MONDAY.
BY TONIGHT AS RIDGE FORCING SETS UP ESE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...FLOW
INTO EASTERN COLORADO/NW KANSAS/SW NEBRASKA DOES INTERACT WITH
REMAINING FRONTAL MOISTURE. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THESE AREAS WILL
PRODUCE A BIT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL GOING INTO THE FIRST FEW HRS MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ENDING. ANY SNOWFALL TOTALS RECEIVED WILL BE LIGHT ON
THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR LESS AND BULK WILL OCCUR OVER THE
COUNTIES OF YUMA CO...DUNDY NEBRASKA AND CHEYENNE KS. LINGERING
CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE RIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS AND WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER MAIN WEATHER FACTORS FROM TODAY ON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FROPA OCCURRING THIS MORNING...THE CWA
WILL SEE EARLY HIGHS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL BE
A CHANGE FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ON THE TUNE OF A 35 TO 40 DEGREE
DOWNWARD SHIFT FOR HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
GOING INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH RIDGE SETTING UP TO OUR
EAST...AREA WILL SEE A REBOUND IN TEMPS ONLY TO THE 30S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS MONDAY...BUT INCREASE GOING INTO TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AND MORE CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL HIGHS GOING INTO TUESDAY
WILL BOUNCE BACK SHARPLY IN THE 50-60 DEGREE RANGE WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S. BOTH OF THESE ARE ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED FOR
THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON MONDAY WITH SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED TODAY WITH 10 TO
15 MPH TONIGHT. THESE SPEEDS TONIGHT COMBINED WITH EXPECTED LOWS
WILL GIVE THE TRI STATE REGION WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
OVERALL...UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK. BY FRIDAY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST...DISCONTINUING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...SHIFTING IT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TRI STATE AREA DISRUPTING THE WARMING TREND. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA...BUT ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE
TYPE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WITH THE
EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SURFACE MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES...WILL BE ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN
PART. HOWEVER STILL NEED A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS TO BETTER
PINPOINT THE PRECIPITATION DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THRU 16Z-17Z FOR BOTH TAF SITES. 3-6SM
IN FOG WITH CEILINGS OVC006-015. AFT 17Z...VFR WITH SCT025-050
BKN150. WINDS NNE 15-25KTS DROPPING TO AROUND 10KTS BY 03Z MONDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
800 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
UPDATE SENT TO REFLECT FASTER FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN
THE RUC WHICH IS ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL TO ACCURATELY REFLECT
TEMPERATURES/WINDS/DEWPOINTS/STRATUS COVERAGE AND FOG IS TOO
SLOW...ESPECIALLY AROUND FLAGLER WHERE TEMPS MUCH COLDER COMPARED
TO MODEL FORECAST. OTHERWISE ITS PRETTY GOOD...HOPEFULLY THE 15Z
RUN WILL BE BETTER.
GENERAL IDEA IS FOR NARROW CORRIDOR OF FOG ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST/SOUTHWEST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING. REST OF THE AREA THAT ISNT UNDER A LOW
BLANKET OF STRATUS WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO CONTEND
WITH. TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
FUTURE UPDATES LIKELY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
UPDATE TO FORECAST SENT TO ADJUST TEMPS/WINDS FROM LATEST OBS DUE
TO FRONT PUSHING THRU THE AREA. TEMPS RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO
LOW 20S UNDER CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME BREAKS OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEBRASKA THAT SHOULD WORK INTO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATER TODAY. FOG IN OBS...SO HAVE KEPT IN MENTION OF FOR
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
A COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH THROUGH THE TRI STATE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT...A ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL LAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE DOES SET UP TO OUR EAST
BY TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WARMUP TO ENSUE...BUT NOT AS WARM
AS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...A LARGE AREA
OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS DOES FOLLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WITHIN THE
LAYER OF CLOUDS...OBS ACROSS NEBRASKA ARE SHOWING FOG AND EVEN SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES...SO WILL HAVE MENTION IN FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE
NW/SE ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY PUT FOCUS OF BULK
OF CLOUD SHIELD...OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN ZONES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AND WILL SETTLE TO OUR EAST GOING INTO MONDAY.
BY TONIGHT AS RIDGE FORCING SETS UP ESE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...FLOW
INTO EASTERN COLORADO/NW KANSAS/SW NEBRASKA DOES INTERACT WITH
REMAINING FRONTAL MOISTURE. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THESE AREAS WILL
PRODUCE A BIT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL GOING INTO THE FIRST FEW HRS MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ENDING. ANY SNOWFALL TOTALS RECEIVED WILL BE LIGHT ON
THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR LESS AND BULK WILL OCCUR OVER THE
COUNTIES OF YUMA CO...DUNDY NEBRASKA AND CHEYENNE KS. LINGERING
CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE RIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS AND WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER MAIN WEATHER FACTORS FROM TODAY ON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FROPA OCCURRING THIS MORNING...THE CWA
WILL SEE EARLY HIGHS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL BE
A CHANGE FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ON THE TUNE OF A 35 TO 40 DEGREE
DOWNWARD SHIFT FOR HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
GOING INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH RIDGE SETTING UP TO OUR
EAST...AREA WILL SEE A REBOUND IN TEMPS ONLY TO THE 30S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS MONDAY...BUT INCREASE GOING INTO TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AND MORE CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL HIGHS GOING INTO TUESDAY
WILL BOUNCE BACK SHARPLY IN THE 50-60 DEGREE RANGE WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S. BOTH OF THESE ARE ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED FOR
THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON MONDAY WITH SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED TODAY WITH 10 TO
15 MPH TONIGHT. THESE SPEEDS TONIGHT COMBINED WITH EXPECTED LOWS
WILL GIVE THE TRI STATE REGION WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
OVERALL...UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK. BY FRIDAY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST...DISCONTINUING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...SHIFTING IT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TRI STATE AREA DISRUPTING THE WARMING TREND. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA...BUT ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE
TYPE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WITH THE
EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SURFACE MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES...WILL BE ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN
PART. HOWEVER STILL NEED A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS TO BETTER
PINPOINT THE PRECIPITATION DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THRU 16Z-17Z FOR BOTH TAF SITES. 3-6SM
IN FOG WITH CEILINGS OVC006-015. AFT 17Z...VFR WITH SCT025-050
BKN150. WINDS NNE 15-25KTS DROPPING TO AROUND 10KTS BY 03Z MONDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
513 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
AS OF 3AM THE COLD FRONT HAS PLOWED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
KANSAS PASSING THROUGH HUTCHINSON SHORTLY AFTER THE 3AM HOUR.
TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY WINDS
HAVE STEADILY HAD GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED MILD...ONLY QUICKLY TO CHANGE AS THE
FRONT PASSES.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THE
COLD FRONT IS AHEAD OF GUIDANCE AND EVEN AHEAD OF PROJECTIONS JUST
A FEW HOURS AGO. THE FRONT IS REALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE. FEEL THE HRRR HAS ONE OF THE BEST GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS AND
HAVE USED THAT AS A FIRST GUESS...MODIFYING SLIGHTLY FOR HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE AND HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. MOST OF THE STATE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
30S. THE FRONT WILL SLOW SLIGHTLY AS THE WINDS COMPONENT BECOMES
LESS PERPENDICULAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS CAUSING THAT AREA TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR LONGER TODAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
MONDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE BUT STAY SLIGHTLY BREEZY DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING.
BY TUESDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
WITH 40S EXPECTED.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED IS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WHICH
WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST
AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL STAY IN THE
40S AND 50S WHILE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
OVERNIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED
SNOW AS A POTENTIAL WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND RAIN
DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY.
WHILE OUT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF KANSAS COULD BE NEXT SUNDAY. WILL WANT
TO WATCH LATER FORECASTS TO SEE HOW THIS DISTURBANCE EVOLVES WITH
LATER GUIDANCE.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM KANSAS CITY TO WICHITA...TO SOUTH
OF LIBERAL AT 11 UTC...SHOULD PUSH SOUTHWARD OUT OF FAR SOUTHEAST
KS BY 18 UTC TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AT 15-25 KNOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SWATH OF MVFR CEILINGS LAGS THE FRONT BY ABOUT
2 HOURS...THAT WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE
PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP AROUND 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AS A POLAR SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH-LEVEL
CIRRUS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 39 16 31 16 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 35 12 30 15 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 36 14 29 15 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 41 18 32 17 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 46 18 32 17 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELL 30 12 29 14 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 32 13 30 15 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 32 15 31 15 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 33 13 30 15 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 55 20 33 23 / 10 10 10 0
CHANUTE 49 18 32 19 / 10 10 0 0
IOLA 47 18 31 19 / 10 10 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 54 18 33 21 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
311 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
AS OF 3AM THE COLD FRONT HAS PLOWED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
KANSAS PASSING THROUGH HUTCHINSON SHORTLY AFTER THE 3AM HOUR.
TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY WINDS
HAVE STEADILY HAD GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED MILD...ONLY QUICKLY TO CHANGE AS THE
FRONT PASSES.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THE
COLD FRONT IS AHEAD OF GUIDANCE AND EVEN AHEAD OF PROJECTIONS JUST
A FEW HOURS AGO. THE FRONT IS REALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE. FEEL THE HRRR HAS ONE OF THE BEST GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS AND
HAVE USED THAT AS A FIRST GUESS...MODIFYING SLIGHTLY FOR HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE AND HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. MOST OF THE STATE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
30S. THE FRONT WILL SLOW SLIGHTLY AS THE WINDS COMPONENT BECOMES
LESS PERPENDICULAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS CAUSING THAT AREA TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR LONGER TODAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
MONDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE BUT STAY SLIGHTLY BREEZY DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING.
BY TUESDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
WITH 40S EXPECTED.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED IS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WHICH
WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST
AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL STAY IN THE
40S AND 50S WHILE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
OVERNIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED
SNOW AS A POTENTIAL WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND RAIN
DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY.
WHILE OUT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF KANSAS COULD BE NEXT SUNDAY. WILL WANT
TO WATCH LATER FORECASTS TO SEE HOW THIS DISTURBANCE EVOLVES WITH
LATER GUIDANCE.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS FOR
A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW...BUT
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE SHORT TEMPO GROUPS.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 39 16 31 16 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 35 12 30 15 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 36 14 29 15 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 41 18 32 17 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 46 18 32 17 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELL 30 12 29 14 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 32 13 30 15 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 32 15 31 15 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 33 13 30 15 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 55 20 33 23 / 10 10 10 0
CHANUTE 49 18 32 19 / 10 10 0 0
IOLA 47 18 31 19 / 10 10 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 54 18 33 21 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1049 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
ITS BEEN A SUNNY AND VERY WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS KICT COUNTRY AS
SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS HAVE KICKED TEMPERATURES TO AROUND
70. BY REACHING 72 DEGREES AT 2 PM...RUSSELL SET A RECORD WHICH
HAS EASILY BROKEN THE MARK OF 68 SET IN 2003.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
PER THE LATEST NAM...RAP AND HRRR MODEL RUNS...SPED UP THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH THESE SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASSES. IT WILL LIKELY REACH I-70 BY 3AM...HUTCHINSON BY
5AM...WICHITA-EL DORADO-HARPER BY 6-7AM...AND PARSONS BY 11AM-
NOON. CONSEQUENTLY...LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS BY QUITE A BIT DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ADK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
REST OF THE WEEKEND:
THE "STAR" OF THE SHOW CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
CURVES FROM A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN ACROSS
SOUTHERN SD TO NORTHERN WY. THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER DECK
TROF EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE WA/OR BORDER. THE UPPER
TROF WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY THEN SPRINTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE
PROCESS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD CURVE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
THROUGH CENTRAL KS...TO THE KS/CO BORDER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS SHARP AND WITH THE COLD
SURGE ARRIVING CENTRAL KS SUNDAY MORNING AND SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON NEARLY ALL AREAS (THE EXCEPTION IS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS) WILL EXPERIENCE FALLING TEMPERATURES AS
SUNDAY PROGRESSES. THE COLD FRONT HAS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE TO
PLAY WITH AND AS SUCH CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION REMAIN VERY
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE DOWN STAIRWELLS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN RUSSELL TO THE LOW 20S IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS. NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS WILL PUT A BITE
INTO THE AIR FOR SURE AS STRONG(!) CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY FROM
SUNDAY THRU MONDAY.
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
AFTER A VERY CHILLY START A FAIRLY RAPID WARMUP IS SLATED FOR THE
REGION AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS LONG THE FRONT RANGE TO
ALLOW SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS TO RETURN TO KS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL VISIT THE NEIGHBORHOOD FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK-WEEK AS A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS WOULD
EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF WOULD EXPERIENCE A
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIXTURE (ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT). A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WILL PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND THEREBY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS FOR
A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW...BUT
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE SHORT TEMPO GROUPS.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 37 38 17 33 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 34 38 15 32 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 36 37 16 32 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 39 40 18 33 / 0 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 42 43 20 34 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 30 34 12 31 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 32 36 13 32 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 31 36 16 32 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 33 37 15 31 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 52 56 23 34 / 0 10 10 10
CHANUTE 48 49 20 33 / 0 10 10 10
IOLA 46 48 19 33 / 0 10 10 0
PARSONS-KPPF 50 52 21 34 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
903 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 845 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2014
Precipitation coverage has dropped in the last couple of hours as
main precipitation now has shifted east of the area. Still looking
scattered rain showers for the remainder of the evening hours. A
couple of sleet reports have come in across southern Indiana. Dual
pol data and RAP soundings show freezing level between 3-4 kft, so
an occasional sleet pellet will remain possible through the evening
hours. Forecast largely on track with overnight temps holding in the
lower to middle 30s.
After coordinating with IND and PAH, introduced the chance for rain
showers to the forecast for tomorrow for the area. This would be
mainly during the morning hours as latest guidance continues to
show some weak warm air advection precipitation developing in
conjunction with 850mb moisture transport. 01.18z guidance picked
up on this and now the HRRR and other meso models show this
developing toward sunrise. It should be another cloudy day with
highs stuck in the 40s.
Issued at 600 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2014
Main band of precipitation pushing east across south central KY into
the Bluegrass region early this evening. Areas to the north are more
spotty but likely to see drizzle with plenty of low level moisture
and weak lift in place. Temperatures are hovering in the 33 to 36
degree range for the last few hours, and not expecting further drops
as dewpoints have bottomed out or even come up a degree or two.
Still a slight chance for a sleet pellet or two across the north
where the colder air resides, but feel the main weather type this
evening and especially the overnight will be rain showers giving way
to drizzle. Have added drizzle to the forecast and adjusted POPs
for the evening hours.
Looking at some of the 01.18z data coming in, may need to raise POPs
for Tuesday or at least incorporate drizzle as forecast soundings
show low level moisture remaining in place trapped underneath a weak
inversion. With no ice present aloft and weak/moderate lift in the
low levels, drizzle would be the predominant ptype. Will evaluate
this further for a later update if necessary.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2014
Slow moving shallow arctic cold front will basically stall and wash
out over Tennessee. In fact, surface winds will shift to the east
tonight and then become very light Tuesday as a weak surface trough
moves across the southern Bluegrass.
Light rain will continue through mid to late afternoon north of the
Ohio River, and through late afternoon or early evening across
central Kentucky. A few sleet pellets may still mix in with rain
late this afternoon along and north of the Ohio, but temperatures
expected to stay just above freezing this afternoon will preclude
any light icing. Even by mid-evening, across our northern counties such
as Dubois and Scott, temperatures will stay at or above freezing.
Overnight lows will fall into the 30 to 33 degree range along our
northern tier of counties, and probably down to the lower 30s along
and south of the Ohio. Light rain will taper off later this evening
across our southeast.
With the approach of this surface trough, temperatures will actually
begin to warm aloft after midnight. Expect extensive cloudiness and
some drizzle overnight through mid morning Tuesday. High
temperatures will vary quite widely Tuesday from northwest to
southeast. Highs near Lake Cumberland may reach the lower to mid 50s
while staying near 40 across southwestern Indiana. Will continue
with just a slight chance of some light rain southeast of the Ohio
Tuesday, but any amounts will stay very light.
Cloudy skies will continue Tuesday night with lows in the lower to
mid 30s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2014
The upper level pattern during the long term forecast period will
largely be zonal, with fast moving disturbances moving through the
flow and the surface boundary remaining stalled nearby. Therefore,
the main forecast concern is precipitation chances and timing.
For Wednesday, one surface boundary will be pushing through eastern
Kentucky with Canadian high pressure building in from the northwest.
Steady cold air advection and a drying airmass should keep most of
the forecast area dry, with the exception being the Cumberland
regions where the 01.12z guidance continues to suggest the front
will stall out for the afternoon. Confined POPs to that area,
keeping the rest of the forecast area dry.
Reasonable agreement that across the Ohio Valley the Wednesday night
through Thursday morning period will be under the influence of high
pressure, so the slight precipitation chances were removed. Quick
warm advection return flow will lead to increasing clouds Thursday
and some saturation and lift is focused in the mid levels.
Some of the 01.12z deterministic guidance develops precipitation by
Thursday afternoon but the trend has been slower and drier with the
moisture return, so POPs were lowered, especially during the morning
hours. If the 01.12z guidance verifies, Thursday morning will be
dry. Rain chances look to spread south to north across the area
during the afternoon and evening hours and that wave will pass to
the north Thursday night into Friday.
01.12z guidance then shows a slightly stronger wave crossing the
southern US Friday into the first part of Saturday, with rain
chances centered on Friday night. This looks to be the wettest, most
widespread rain period of the week. 60 to 70 percent POPs look good
at this point. Beyond Saturday, some signals for a drier period with
high pressure building in, especially for Sunday.
Temperatures for the remainder of the work week and this weekend are
expected to be within seasonable normals and daily diurnals will be
the low with plenty of clouds and precipitation chances. Highs upper
40s to lower 50s and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 550 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2014
Poor conditions expected through the period with high amount of low
level moisture in place across central KY. Northerly flow is keeping
cold air advection with overrunning precipitation moving across
Kentucky. Highest rain chances will be this evening, then that will
give way to drizzle for much of the overnight.
Ceilings are expected to lower later this evening and bottom out in
the 500 to 900 ft range overnight at SDF/LEX/BWG. Visibilities will
likely remain in the 4 to 6 sm range with on/off drizzle. Plan on
light northeast winds through tomorrow morning, then some turning to
the east and eventually southeast by the afternoon hours.
Some signals in the forecast models that IFR conditions could remain
in place through much of Tuesday with low level moisture trapped
beneath a weak inversion. Have continued IFR cigs through 21z, but
that may not be long enough.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........ZT
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
915 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED OUR ENTIRE REGION THIS EVENING
LEAVING STRONG...YET SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.
TAKING A LOOK AT OUR 00Z SOUNDING...THE COLD AIR IS ABOUT 3KFT
THICK WITH A STRONG INVERSION NOTED AT THE 900MB LEVEL. WINDS AT
AND ABOVE THE WARM NOSE WERE STILL FROM A WSW DIRECTION. WHILE A
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION ATTM...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
WE SAY THIS BECAUSE A QUICK LOOK AT THE ISENTROPIC LEVEL NEAR A
THETA SFC OF 900-925MB...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUPPORT
THIS POSSIBILITY. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BEST AS WINDS APPEAR TO BACK
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARM NOSE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS REASON...
HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS FAR WEST AS THE
TYR/GGG AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ALREADY SEEING SOME
WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR SOUTH OF GGG WHICH SUPPORTS THIS THEORY.
CONCERNING OTHER CHANGES...THE PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS NE LA HAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES TO AT OR NEAR FCST LOWS
OVERNIGHT SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE LA INTO S
AR. OTHER CHANGES INCLUDED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS
WHICH WERE TOO WARM GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED ZONE
PACKAGE OUT SHORTLY...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 38 51 46 64 54 / 20 10 10 10 20
MLU 38 50 44 64 50 / 30 10 10 10 10
DEQ 31 47 39 54 50 / 10 10 10 20 30
TXK 34 49 43 57 52 / 20 10 10 20 20
ELD 35 49 42 60 50 / 20 10 10 10 20
TYR 35 50 45 62 55 / 20 10 10 20 20
GGG 35 50 46 64 55 / 20 10 10 10 20
LFK 38 54 48 68 56 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
948 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW LETTING UP AS THEY MOVE SE
W/CLEARING TAKING PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST AREAS.
REPORTS OF UP TO 0.5" OF NEW SNOW. ALSO RECEIVED REPORTS THAT
SOME ROADS WERE SLICK DUE TO THE SNOW AND REFREEZING OF THE WET
GROUND. DECIDED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT MINS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
GIVEN THE CLEARING. THE LATEST RAP MODEL WAS DOING WELL MATCHING
UP THE LATEST TEMPS. THE RAP SHOWS NW AREAS GOING TO -7F SUCH AS
ESTCOURT STATION. DID NOT GO THAT LOW AND LEANED W/-5F FOR A LOW
BY 7 AM TUESDAY. WINDS ARE STAYING UP AN WILL HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS DUE TO THE
TIGHTER GRADIENT.
HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE IN THE TEENS N TO LOWER TO MID 20S
DOWNEAST... ABOUT 20 TO 30 DEG LOWER THAN TDY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TUE AFTN AS THE SFC HI AXIS CRESTS THE REGION.
TUE EVE WILL BEGIN MCLR TO PTLY CLDY...ALLOWING FOR SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT TEMPS WILL LVL OUT TO ERLY LOWS BY OVRNGT AS HI
THIN CS CLD CVR THICKENS WITH THE APCH OF THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS BEGINS TO APCH THE REGION.
OVRRNG PRECIP...MSLY INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF LGT SN...BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM WSW TO ENE LATE TUE NGT AS DEEP LOW TO
MID LVL S TO SE WINDS INCREASE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIG RISES IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK WED...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNFL ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS TM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING JUST ABOUT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY AS
WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT RESULTS IN A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND FREEZING RAIN JUST INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. THE LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM DURING WEDNESDAY WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND FREEZING RAIN TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS WHERE WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THURSDAY WILL TURN COLDER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
TO AROUND ZERO WITH SOME SUB ZERO READINGS LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE CONTINUED COLD
AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR EAST. THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND NOT QUITE CUT AND DRY AT THIS POINT WITH DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS. GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS A COLD AND DRY WEEKEND AS
IT BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS TO OUR NORTH. THE ECMWF BRINGS A
FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING SATURDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. STAYED WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS
LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD BACK IN BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBHB WHERE WE
SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN BY 12Z. THE FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS. MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
NORTHERN SHOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.
VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: MSLY VFR DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR OR LOW VFR CLGS IN
BKN-OVC SC FOR NRN TAF SITES INTO THE OVRNGT...WITH BRIEF IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SN SHWRS FOR NRN TAF SITES. ALL TAF SITES
THEN BECOME VFR BY DAYBREAK TUE AND CONT SO THRU TUE EVE. THEN
CLGS AND VSBYS LOWER WSW TO ENE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LGT SN LATE
TUE NGT...XCPT LGT SN OR MIXED PRECIP FOR KBHB.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE CURRENT SCA TNGT FOR MSLY WIND OVR THE
INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052 AND FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FOR OUTER
MZS050-051. AFTWRDS...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLO SCA
CRITERIA LATER TUE MORN AND CONT SO THRU TUE EVE. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD BACK TO SCA OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS BY WED MORN AS SE WINDS
INCREASE ARND DEPARTING SFC HI PRES MOVG E OF THE CAN MARITIMES.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
649 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE...
NEARLY W-E FLOW ALONG THE CNDN BORDER. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU ERN ONTARIO. LLVL NW FLOW/H85 THERMAL
TROF WITH TEMPS AS LO AS -25 TO -28C RESULTED IN NUMEROUS LK EFFECT
SN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE W-NW WIND SN BELTS. BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE
RELATED TO DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC THAT LOWERED THE INVRN BASE TO
H9-925 AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX RAOBS AS WELL AS TENDENCY FOR THE
LLVL FLOW TO BECOME MORE ACYC WITH APRCH OF SFC HI PRES IN SRN MN IS
LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THE SN SHOWERS. THE SN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
SHIFTING AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO BACK WITH HI PRES MOVING INTO WI. NW
WIND GUSTS REACHED 45-50 MPH ALONG LK SUP DURING THE MRNG...BUT
WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF PRES RISE CENTER THIS
MRNG IS CAUSING WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. THE HI WAVES WHIPPED UP BY
THESE STRONG WINDS...AS HI AS 15 FT...AND ABOVE NORMAL LK WATER LVLS
WARRANTED ISSUANCE OF A LK SHORE FLOOD ADVY FOR THE MORE EXPOSED
ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES THAT WL EXPIRE AT 2/00Z. LOOKING TO THE W...
SKIES ARE MOCLR IN MN UNDER HI PRES RDG/AXIS OF LOWEST PWAT OF 0.03
INCH /10-15 PCT OF NORMAL/ REPORTED ON THE 12Z MPX/INL RAOBS...BUT
MORE HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE PAC NW/SW CANADA
ARE ALREADY PUSHING INTO WRN MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LES TRENDS LATE
TODAY...LO TEMPS TNGT WITH PASSAGE OF SFC RDG/VERY DRY AIRMASS AND
THEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME WAA PCPN ON TUE IN THE STRENGTHENING S FLOW
BTWN THE DEPARTING HI PRES AND LO PRES TROF ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
NOW MOVING THRU THE ROCKIES.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER IN SRN MN SHIFTS E THRU
WI...NRN LOWER MI AND INTO QUEBEC BY 12Z TUE...THE WINDS WL BACK
STEADILY TO THE S...CAUSING LINGERING SN SHOWERS IN THE W-NW WIND SN
BELTS TO SHIFT OUT INTO THE LK BY MIDNGT OR SO. WINDS WL ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WEAKER GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HI. CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY INCOMING AIRMASS...
EXPECT TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TO DIP AOB ZERO THIS EVNG. BUT
INCOMING HI CLDS RELATED TO STRENGTHENING S FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI TO THE E AND LO
PRES TROF IN THE PLAINS WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL AND
CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE OVERNGT. DESPITE THESE LIMITATIONS...TENDED TO
LOWER GOING FCST MIN TEMPS TOWARD -10F OVER THE INTERIOR W AND
SCENTRAL. ANOTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SN SHOWERS TO DVLP
OVERNGT DOWNWIND OF LK MI IN THE S FLOW AND IN PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS
AS LO AS -8 TO -10C /VS LK WATER TEMP ARND 5C AS REPORTED ON THE NRN
LK MI BUOY/. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR ON THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
THESE SN SHOWERS WL BE LO INVRN BASE FCST NEAR 3K FT AGL AND VERY
DRY NATURE OF THE LLVL AIR. THESE SN SHOWERS WL IMPACT MAINLY DELTA
COUNTY AFTER 06Z.
TUE...AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA IN ADVANCE
OF APRCHG SHRTWV/PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE SW FLOW BTWN
ACCOMPANYING SFC TROF AND DEPARTING HI PRES IN SE CANADA ARE FCST TO
IMPACT THE CWA. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO WIDESPREAD PCPN WL BE
MARGINAL MSTR RETURN ARND THE H85 LEVEL. SINCE THE MODELS SHOW SOME
HIER H85 DEWPTS ADVECTING INTO THE E HALF IN THE AFTN UNDER THE DEEP
LYR FORCING AND WHERE THERE WL REMAIN A LK EFFECT COMPONENT IN THE
SW FLOW OFF LK MI WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -8C...FCST THE HIER POPS/PCPN
TOTALS IN THAT AREA. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE A FEW
INCHES OF SN IN THE ERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SLIDES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA AND SWEEPS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. BETWEEN THE FRONTS/TROUGHS...AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY TO
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET
SLIDING FARTHER TO THE NORTH...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO
THE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...POTENTIALLY EVEN BEING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY (NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S).
THE FIRST TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY EVENING...SHIFTING THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER DELTA/SCHOOLCRAFT
INTIALLY IN THE EVENING...BUT QUICKLY DEPARTING WITHIN A COUPLE
HOURS. AS THAT DEPARTS...THE INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA AND
PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. SOME
LOCATIONS MIGHT PICK UP A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW BEFORE IT
DEPARTS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE TROUGH...BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHEST AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH 875MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND
-15C...THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AT THAT LEVEL WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE CLOUD DEPTH LIMITED AND IN TURN THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LIGHT. THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH). THAT
SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN COLDER 850MB TEMPS (TO -16C)...WHILE
PROVIDING DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAISING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 7-8KFT.
THAT WILL LEAD TO A 6-12HR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS. WHILE MUCH OF THE CLOUD
IS WITHIN THE DGZ...THINKING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS (GUSTING TO
30-40MPH) WILL HELP FRACTURE THE DENDRITES AND LEAD TO SNOW RATIOS
LOWER THAN NORMALLY EXPECTED IN THAT SITUATION.
THAT PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
AREA. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE
LAKE EFFECT (OR AT LEAST PUSH IT OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS
WINDS BACK). WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH BEHIND THE HIGH ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS PERIOD
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TOWARDS NORMAL ON
FRIDAY. WITH THE TROUGH BEING FAIRLY WEAK AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...DON/T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT AS COLDEST 850MB TEMPS ARE LOCKED UP WELL TO THE NORTH AND
GENERALLY HAVE VALUES AROUND -4C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS LEADS TO
MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DELTA-T VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. WITH LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWN ON THE MODELS...WILL JUST GO WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTHWEST WIND.
THAT NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART ON SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW/TROUGH TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW A
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT AND SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS COMES FROM THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT MOVES IN
BEHIND THE LOW/TROUGH ON MONDAY (850MB TEMPS OF -4C ON THE GFS AND
-8C ON THE ECMWF). EITHER WAY...THIS APPEARS MARGINAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT AND WILL SHOW DIMINISHING POPS ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. ALL IN ALL...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE AREA SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014
DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AT KIWD.
AT KCMX...AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE SW/S WITH PASSAGE OF SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE...MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT TO VFR
AROUND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN LOW MVFR CIGS SPREADING N TO KSAW OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT CIGS COULD BE IFR. AT ALL TERMINALS...RAPIDLY
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN LLWS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE ABOVE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL TEND TO MIX OUT A BIT ON TUE
MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS. AS WINDS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE SW DURING THE DAY TUE...EXPECT LOW MVFR CIGS TO CLEAR
OUT OF KSAW LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. THEN...APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE MAY SPREAD SOME -SN INTO UPPER MI TUE AFTN. IT APPEARS
BETTER POTENTIAL OF -SN IS FARTHER E AT KSAW...SO ONLY INCLUDED -SN
MENTION AT THAT TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TUE AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014
EXPECT WINDS/FREEZING SPRAY TO DIMINISH AND BACK TOWARD THE W AND SW
WITH PASSAGE OF SFC HI PRES RDG THIS EVNG. ALLOWED GOING HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY/GALE HEADLINES OVER THE EASTERN LAKE TO END AS
PLANNED. BUT AS THE HI MOVES STEADILY TO THE E AND ANOTHER LO PRES
TROF MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
SHARPEN AND CAUSE S WINDS TO INCREASE. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF S
GALES MAINLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE ON TUE WHEN THE SHARPEST
GRADIENT WILL PASS OVERHEAD. ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR LAKE SUPERIOR
OPEN WATER ZONES 264>267. THIS GALE EVENT WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT
LIVED AS THE TROF/WEAKER GRADIENT PASSES W-E THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES
LATE TUE...WITH GALES ENDING TUE EVENING. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE
ANOTHER W-NW GALE EVENT WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BUT SINCE THE WEATHER PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE...THE PASSAGE
OF THE TRAILING HI PRES RIDGE THRU THE AREA ON THU WILL RESULT IN
DIMINISHING/BACKING WINDS TO THE SW FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. NO GALES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
107 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH WEST MICHIGAN TODAY AND SEND
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
20S. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WILL WARM INTO THE 30S BY MID WEEK AND
REMAIN THERE FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS MAINLY DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS...THOUGH PCPN CHANCES
ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.
SFC OBS SHOW A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR MQT SWWD TO EASTERN
IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATER
THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW...LESS THAN 4K FT AND SO PCPN WILL
BE LIMITED TO A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...IF AT ALL.
ANY PCPN THAT DEVELOPS WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
IT/S WORTH NOTING THE LATEST HRRR DOESN/T SHOW ANY PCPN OVER THE CWA
TODAY.
COLD AIR POURS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
20S. ORDINARILY THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS
H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -13C. HOWEVER...WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS ONLY
REACHING 3K FT...THE DGZ...WHAT THERE IS OF IT...REMAINS IN THE TOP
OF THE CLOUD WITH NOT MUCH LIFT WITHIN IT. THUS WE DON/T EXPECT
ACCUMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SETTLES OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WX.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. OVERALL IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT.
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SMALL RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
RIDGING ARRIVES FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
AIDED...AIDED BY MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW...SUPPORTING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE ARRIVES THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAKENING. WHILE MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE DGZ...BUT
POTENTIALLY VERY DRY BELOW...IT APPEARS WE WILL SEE MAINLY VIRGA
FROM THIS WAVE. I ENDED UP HOLDING ONTO A VERY LOW POP FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FORE THIS EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE SFC COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY MBS TO GRR TO ORD AT
18Z HAS NUMEROUS IFR/LIFR CIGS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND/NORTH OF IT.
THESE LOWER CIGS WILL BE APPROACHING THE TERMINALS SOUTH AND EAST
OF GRR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES PRESSING
SOUTHEAST.
NO PRECIP HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE FRONT ALTHOUGH VSBYS MAY
OCCASIONALLY DIP TO AROUND ONE MILE IN MIST RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK INTO MVFR CATEGORY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY
CONDITIONS SHOULD TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY VFR TOWARD 06Z TONIGHT.
AFTER 12Z MONDAY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. ALSO SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WHICH COULD BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
MKG AND PERHAPS AZO AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. WAVES WILL REMAIN AOA
3 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
RIVER LEVELS WILL RECEDE DURING THE NEXT WEEK AS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF APPRECIABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
642 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH WEST MICHIGAN TODAY AND SEND
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
20S. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WILL WARM INTO THE 30S BY MID WEEK AND
REMAIN THERE FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS MAINLY DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS...THOUGH PCPN CHANCES
ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.
SFC OBS SHOW A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR MQT SWWD TO EASTERN
IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATER
THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW...LESS THAN 4K FT AND SO PCPN WILL
BE LIMITED TO A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...IF AT ALL.
ANY PCPN THAT DEVELOPS WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
IT/S WORTH NOTING THE LATEST HRRR DOESN/T SHOW ANY PCPN OVER THE CWA
TODAY.
COLD AIR POURS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
20S. ORDINARILY THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS
H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -13C. HOWEVER...WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS ONLY
REACHING 3K FT...THE DGZ...WHAT THERE IS OF IT...REMAINS IN THE TOP
OF THE CLOUD WITH NOT MUCH LIFT WITHIN IT. THUS WE DON/T EXPECT
ACCUMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SETTLES OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WX.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. OVERALL IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT.
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SMALL RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
RIDGING ARRIVES FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
AIDED...AIDED BY MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW...SUPPORTING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE ARRIVES THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAKENING. WHILE MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE DGZ...BUT
POTENTIALLY VERY DRY BELOW...IT APPEARS WE WILL SEE MAINLY VIRGA
FROM THIS WAVE. I ENDED UP HOLDING ONTO A VERY LOW POP FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FORE THIS EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES IN
SOUTHWEST MI THIS MORNING IMPACTING AVIATORS. THIS WILL HAPPEN IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACT THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL ACTUALLY IMPROVE AS THE COLDER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY IN THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
ICING COULD BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. WAVES WILL REMAIN AOA
3 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
RIVER LEVELS WILL RECEDE DURING THE NEXT WEEK AS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF APPRECIABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH WEST MICHIGAN TODAY AND SEND
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
20S. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WILL WARM INTO THE 30S BY MID WEEK AND
REMAIN THERE FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS MAINLY DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS...THOUGH PCPN CHANCES
ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.
SFC OBS SHOW A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR MQT SWWD TO EASTERN
IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATER
THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW...LESS THAN 4K FT AND SO PCPN WILL
BE LIMITED TO A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...IF AT ALL.
ANY PCPN THAT DEVELOPS WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
IT/S WORTH NOTING THE LATEST HRRR DOESN/T SHOW ANY PCPN OVER THE CWA
TODAY.
COLD AIR POURS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
20S. ORDINARILY THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS
H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -13C. HOWEVER...WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS ONLY
REACHING 3K FT...THE DGZ...WHAT THERE IS OF IT...REMAINS IN THE TOP
OF THE CLOUD WITH NOT MUCH LIFT WITHIN IT. THUS WE DON/T EXPECT
ACCUMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SETTLES OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WX.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. OVERALL IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT.
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SMALL RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
RIDGING ARRIVES FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
AIDED...AIDED BY MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW...SUPPORTING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE ARRIVES THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAKENING. WHILE MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE DGZ...BUT
POTENTIALLY VERY DRY BELOW...IT APPEARS WE WILL SEE MAINLY VIRGA
FROM THIS WAVE. I ENDED UP HOLDING ONTO A VERY LOW POP FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FORE THIS EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER (ALL SITES ARE MVFR FUEL RESTRICTIONS
AT 04Z)) AND I WOULD EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE AS WARMER AND EVEN
MORE MORE MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN.
WINDS CURRENTLY ARE GUST AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS IS NOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE CORE OF STRONGER WINDS IS EAST
OF THE AREA AFTER 09Z... THERE WILL BE LESS MIXING SO VISIBILITIES
SHOULD START OF COME DOWN TOO. AS THE FRONT COMES (16Z MKG TO 20Z
JXN) THROUGH I EXPECT MOST TAF SITES TO BE IFR VSBY/CIGS. THE I-94
TAF SITES MAY SEE SOME DRIZZLE TOO AT THE MOISTURE WILL BE A
LITTLE DEEPER DOWN THERE AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. EXPECT SLOW
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. WAVES WILL REMAIN AOA
3 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
RIVER LEVELS WILL RECEDE DURING THE NEXT WEEK AS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF APPRECIABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1228 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
.UPDATE...IT HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE TO KEEP UP WITH RAPIDLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AS MAJOR BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING OWING TO MORE SUN THAN ANTICIPATED IS LEADING TO MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL WARMING. AFTERNOON HIGHS RAISED ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO IN
RESPONSE. THIS MIXING IS ALSO CAUSING WINDS TO GUST A LITTLE MORE
THAN EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA...WHERE GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL SATISFY LIMITED
THREATS FOR GRADIENT WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. UPDATES
TO THE PRODUCTS AND HWO COMPLETED. /BB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014/
UPDATE...MILD TEMPERATURES ARE THE STORY ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH
CLOUDS NOTICEABLY LESS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION THAN YESTERDAY. THE
LATTER FACT...IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ON THE 12Z JAN SOUNDING...SUGGESTS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR TONIGHT...THE MILD
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYERS WINDS SPREADING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT FOG FURTHER INLAND THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. WE WILL OF COURSE UPDATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG FOR SPECIFIC SPOTS IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE PACKAGE UPDATE
THIS AFTERNOON. /BB/
PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 342 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION...WHICH WILL BREAK UP ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AS
925 MB WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 30 TO 40 KNOTS...HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE TOO MUCH SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO UPPER LEVELS FOR ANY MIXING TO
REACH THE GROUND ACCORDING TO MODEL SOUNDINGS. LATEST MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS IN
THE NORTHWEST DELTA. HAVE SET THE GRIDS WITH GUST UP TO 30-35 MPH IN
THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION. SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF
WIND OUT OF THE HWO. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AS
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. FOR TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S. THIS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS AT BETTER FOG POTENTIAL AREAWIDE FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WILL PUT IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE GO INTO MONDAY THE CHANCES
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEAST. LOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO ALLBLEND FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS RAW BLEND GUIDANCE WITH THE SHALLOW AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS
POPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO ALLBLEND GUIDANCE./17/
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY. THE LIGHT POST
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE TUESDAY MORNING AND
DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL REMAIN QUITE A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS OUR DELTA REGION WHILE OUT SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 70S. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AREAWIDE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME NEAR ZONAL TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD NOSES BACK ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. THE RESULTING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
WORK TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND STRETCH BACK ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
WAA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA THURSDAY THE
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR CHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIMITED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA. OUR WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS INDUCED RIDGING ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW DROPPING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS...ENSEMBLES AND
ECMWF DIFFER ON THIS FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER OPEN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT THE SAME
TIME. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE LIMITED OVER OUR CWA DURING THE
WEEKEND THOUGH AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND
ALOFT DOMINATING OVER OUR AREA. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...STRATUS WAS STILL HANGING AROUND IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...BUT CEILINGS WERE RISING. MOST AREAS WERE ABOVE 3KFT.
EXPECTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS
SUGGEST FOG WILL RETURN TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
SUGGEST MORE LOW STRATUS. FOR HBG AND MAYBE MEI WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...WILL ADD SOME FOG. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO START FALLING
AROUND 9Z AND REMAIN GENERALLY OVERCAST FROM 500FT TO 1500FT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR AND OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /7/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 74 57 70 49 / 6 9 29 31
MERIDIAN 73 53 69 51 / 4 7 17 19
VICKSBURG 75 56 72 44 / 9 9 42 35
HATTIESBURG 75 56 73 53 / 4 7 11 14
NATCHEZ 75 58 75 48 / 8 8 33 37
GREENVILLE 75 57 64 39 / 10 17 61 40
GREENWOOD 73 57 67 43 / 10 15 50 40
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/7/17/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1014 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
.UPDATE...MILD TEMPERATURES ARE THE STORY ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH
CLOUDS NOTICEABLY LESS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION THAN YESTERDAY. THE
LATTER FACT...IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ON THE 12Z JAN SOUNDING...SUGGESTS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR TONIGHT...THE MILD
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYERS WINDS SPREADING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT FOG FURTHER INLAND THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. WE WILL OF COURSE UPDATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG FOR SPECIFIC SPOTS IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE PACKAGE UPDATE
THIS AFTERNOON. /BB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION...WHICH WILL BREAK UP ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AS
925 MB WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 30 TO 40 KNOTS...HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE TOO MUCH SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO UPPER LEVELS FOR ANY MIXING TO
REACH THE GROUND ACCORDING TO MODEL SOUNDINGS. LATEST MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS IN
THE NORTHWEST DELTA. HAVE SET THE GRIDS WITH GUST UP TO 30-35 MPH IN
THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION. SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF
WIND OUT OF THE HWO. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AS
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. FOR TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S. THIS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS AT BETTER FOG POTENTIAL AREAWIDE FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WILL PUT IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE GO INTO MONDAY THE CHANCES
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEAST. LOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO ALLBLEND FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS RAW BLEND GUIDANCE WITH THE SHALLOW AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS
POPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO ALLBLEND GUIDANCE./17/
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY. THE LIGHT POST
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE TUESDAY MORNING AND
DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL REMAIN QUITE A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS OUR DELTA REGION WHILE OUT SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 70S. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AREAWIDE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME NEAR ZONAL TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD NOSES BACK ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. THE RESULTING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
WORK TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND STRETCH BACK ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
WAA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA THURSDAY THE
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR CHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIMITED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA. OUR WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS INDUCED RIDGING ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW DROPPING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS...ENSEMBLES AND
ECMWF DIFFER ON THIS FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER OPEN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT THE SAME
TIME. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE LIMITED OVER OUR CWA DURING THE
WEEKEND THOUGH AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND
ALOFT DOMINATING OVER OUR AREA. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...STRATUS WAS STILL HANGING AROUND IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...BUT CEILINGS WERE RISING. MOST AREAS WERE ABOVE 3KFT.
EXPECTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS
SUGGEST FOG WILL RETURN TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
SUGGEST MORE LOW STRATUS. FOR HBG AND MAYBE MEI WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...WILL ADD SOME FOG. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO START FALLING
AROUND 9Z AND REMAIN GENERALLY OVERCAST FROM 500FT TO 1500FT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR AND OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /7/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 74 57 70 49 / 6 9 29 31
MERIDIAN 73 53 69 51 / 4 7 17 19
VICKSBURG 75 56 72 44 / 9 9 42 35
HATTIESBURG 75 56 73 53 / 4 7 11 14
NATCHEZ 75 58 75 48 / 8 8 33 37
GREENVILLE 75 57 64 39 / 10 17 61 40
GREENWOOD 73 57 67 43 / 10 15 50 40
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/7/17/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
342 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION...WHICH WILL BREAK UP ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AS
925 MB WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 30 TO 40 KNOTS...HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE TOO MUCH SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO UPPER LEVELS FOR ANY MIXING TO
REACH THE GROUND ACCORDING TO MODEL SOUNDINGS. LATEST MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS IN
THE NORTHWEST DELTA. HAVE SET THE GRIDS WITH GUST UP TO 30-35 MPH IN
THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION. SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF
WIND OUT OF THE HWO. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AS
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. FOR TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S. THIS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS AT BETTER FOG POTENTIAL AREAWIDE FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WILL PUT IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE GO INTO MONDAY THE CHANCES
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEAST. LOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO ALLBLEND FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS RAW BLEND GUIDANCE WITH THE SHALLOW AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS
POPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO ALLBLEND GUIDANCE./17/
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY. THE LIGHT POST
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE TUESDAY MORNING AND
DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL REMAIN QUITE A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS OUR DELTA REGION WHILE OUT SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 70S. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AREAWIDE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME NEAR ZONAL TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD NOSES BACK ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. THE RESULTING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
WORK TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND STRETCH BACK ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
WAA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA THURSDAY THE
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR CHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIMITED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA. OUR WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS INDUCED RIDGING ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW DROPPING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS...ENSEMBLES AND
ECMWF DIFFER ON THIS FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER OPEN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT THE SAME
TIME. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE LIMITED OVER OUR CWA DURING THE
WEEKEND THOUGH AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND
ALOFT DOMINATING OVER OUR AREA. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR-IFR CEILINGS WERE DEVELOPING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH
LOUISIANA... SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS EAST MISSISSIPPI EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION WITH
IFR-MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE DAYBREAK MAINLY AT GTR/JAN/HKS/MEI/HBG.
FLIGHT CATS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN ALL AREAS BY MIDDAY TODAY AT
THE LATEST WITH WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY
IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. THE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF FOR TONIGHT./17/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 73 57 70 49 / 8 9 29 31
MERIDIAN 73 53 69 51 / 4 7 17 19
VICKSBURG 75 56 72 44 / 11 9 42 35
HATTIESBURG 75 56 73 53 / 6 7 11 14
NATCHEZ 73 58 75 48 / 10 8 33 37
GREENVILLE 74 57 64 39 / 12 17 61 40
GREENWOOD 72 57 67 43 / 12 15 50 40
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
17/22/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1133 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 937 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
Made some minor tweeks to the forecast for tonight. Boosted mins a
tad in light of modest and increasing southerly winds and rising
surface dewpoints. Also delayed the arrival of cloud cover. Stratus
that was across the eastern CWA has exited into far southeast IL
and present southwest to westerly lower trop winds would suggest
it won`t spread back to the east. Rather low-level RH progs from
the RAP and the new 00Z NAM suggest stratus will redevelop across
northern AR and southern MO betweem 08-12z, and then become more
widespread across the entire area on Sunday morning. Strong cold
front is still poised to blast across the CWA on Sunday accompanied
by gusty northerly winds and sharply falling temperatures. Temperatures
could drop 25-30 degrees in less than an hour.
Glass
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 221 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
This period remains rather quiet. Biggest question thru the period
will be cloud cover. Area of ST over the ern portions of the CWA has
finally started to break up as of 20z. Mdls have not been handling
these clouds well and therefore have low confidence in trends
overnight. Moisture return is apparent in latest sat image with CU
field across the srn states. Mdls suggest this moisture will move
nwd with ST developing across much of the srn half of the CWA by
morning. The approaching cdfnt will also bring clouds, but shud lag
behind the fnt slightly. Some uncertainty exists with these clouds
as snow cover may be aiding in development. Regardless, with strong
sly winds expected thru the night, clouds are not expected to have a
large impact on temps.
Mdls are in good agreement thru this period. With the cdfnt expected
to reach the nrn portions of the CWA around or just after 12z,
expect temps to remain close to steady thru much of the night. Given
the uncertainty with cloud cover, have trended twd a compromise.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Main focus thru this period will be precip chances and p-type for
Sun night and Mon.
Uncertainty regarding cloud cover mentioned above continues thru
much of Sun. However, the one difference is that amount of
post-frontal cloud cover will have an impact on temps during the
day. However, given temps are currently dropping some 20 degrees
with fropa with nearly full sun, believe current forecast trends are
good.
Believe mdls are producing too much QPF ahead of the cdfnt. Mdls do
show a fair amount of low level lift just behind the fnt, mainly
associated with frontogenesis. However, mdls also have QPF ahead of
the fnt. While DZ can not be completely ruled out, believe this
precip is bad and caused by unrealistic moisture return within the
mdl. Have therefore focused PoPs along and just behind the cdfnt.
This changes slightly for Sun night, mainly during the eve hours. An
approaching s/w and better low level forcing shud help enhance
precip during this time, but likely will be just SE of the CWA. Have
therefore lowered PoPs thru Sun night, but kept highest PoPs along
srn and sern portions of the CWA. While mdls are in fairly good
agreement regarding timing of fropa, differences exist regarding how
fast the cold air will push in behind the fnt. The NAM/ECMWF/local
WRF are currently in good agreement in temp trends thru Mon and have
trended twd these solns. Mdls do agree in keeping precip as RA/FZRA.
Do have some minor ice accumulations across far srn portions of the
CWA. However, with 4 inch soil temps currently in the mid 40 degree
range and 2 inch temps in the lower 50s per the MO mesonet sites, do
not currently anticipate much accumulation on the ground and shud be
confined to elevated surfaces.
Mon night and Tues are expected to remain dry. Have trended warmer
than the MET/MAV guidance as the sfc ridge shud be S of the region
and sly flow shud have returned. However, given some uncertainty in
amount of cloud cover possible, these temps may need to be lowered
with future updates.
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Focus turns to precip chances thru much of the period. While mdls
are in good agreement at the beginning of the period, differences
are rather large by the end of the forecast period. Due to this
uncertainty and low confidence, have made minor changes to the prev
forecast. Do anticipate temps to moderate based on height rises over
the region. However, p-types may present a problem and may need to
be adjusted with future updates.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
Clear skies and southerly winds to persist through the overnight
hours. Otherwise sc is expected to develop south of taf sites and
slowly track to the north ahead of cold front that will slide
through region today. SC to also develop along and behind front
with all of these clouds merging together over taf sites by mid
to late morning. Front to move through KUIN by 14z Sunday, KCOU
by 17z Sunday and metro area tafs by 20z Sunday with winds veering
to the northwest. By afternoon, KUIN and KCOU will see winds become
gusty around 25kts from the north then lose gustiness by 00z
Monday. As for any precipitation, moisture will be limited so left
tafs dry for now. Low level jet to persist from the southwest
overnight, so kept mention of LLWS in all tafs.
Specifics for KSTL:
Clear skies and southerly winds to persist through the overnight
hours. Otherwise sc is expected to develop over southern Missouri and
slowly track to the north ahead of cold front that will slide
through region today. SC to also develop along and behind front
with all of these clouds merging together over metro area by early
afternoon. Front to move through metro area by 20z Sunday with
winds veering to the northwest. As for any precipitation,
moisture will be limited so left taf dry for now. Low level jet
to persist from the southwest overnight, so kept mention of LLWS
til 15z Sunday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
900 AM PST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ALONG WITH MILD CONDITIONS. A STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND VERY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON AREA ROADWAYS. LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
THANKS TO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED OUT MUCH
WARMER THAN FORECAST. BROUGHT HOURLY FORECAST TEMPS BACK TO REALITY
FOR THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE ARE CURRENTLY SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER...EXPECT THIS TO FILL IN THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SO EVEN THOUGH THE AREA IS STARTING WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST STILL THINK CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS LOOK GOOD. NO
OTHER UPDATES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
220 AM PST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TODAY MARKS THE LAST DAY OF THE YEAR IN LAS VEGAS IN WHICH THE
NORMAL HIGH IS 60 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AS OF 2 AM WAS AT 62
DEGREES AT MCCARRAN AIRPORT AS ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES
TO STREAM INTO THE AREA COURTESY OF THE JET STREAM SITTING SMACK
OVERHEAD AND A SHORTWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED AT THE
PRESENT ABOUT 200 MILES OR SO OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THIS CREATES A
BIG CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AS MANY SITES ESPECIALLY ACROSS CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES HAD
FAILED TO REALLY DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND SOME WERE ALREADY EXCEEDING
FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH OUR CONTINUITY AS WELL AS WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE WRF AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE
INVERSION BREAKING BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAS VEGAS, WHICH HAPPENED
YESTERDAY AND RESULTED IN TEMPS GETTING MUCH WARMER THAN EXPECTED.
THE ONLY DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THAT FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS AND WATER
VAPOR TRENDS SHOW GLOBS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY PERSISTING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HEATING AND YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPS DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY ONCE
THE CIRRUS THICKENED UP ENOUGH. OVERALL, THE BEST THOUGHT WAS TO
NUDGE UP TEMPS TODAY AND GO WITH VALUES CLOSER TO THE ECMWF BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND WARMER WRF SOUNDING. WITH THE INVERSION
BREAKING AND WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOWN IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS A 70 KT JET AT 250 MB STILL OVERHEAD, GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME HIGHER RIDGETOPS AND FAVORED SPOTS DOWNWIND OF
CANYONS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH.
THE DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE CREST OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA. THE WRF AND HRRR MODELS STILL SUPPORT THIS. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 7000 FEET, HOWEVER, ANY ATTEMPT AT
ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE 10000 FEET GIVEN THE WARM GROUND
TEMPS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HIGH CLOUDS MAY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
FOR TONIGHT, SO READINGS SHOULD BE COOLER.
RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE DAY SHOULD START OFF SUNNIER, THE NEXT JET STREAK IS
SHOWN TO HEAD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER
BATCH OF THICK CIRRUS IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD BASES
LOWERING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
CALIFORNIA. HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE LOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY
AS THE INVERSION LOOKS TO HOLD AND MIXING IS WEAK IN THE VALLEYS.
HOWEVER, SEEING HOW THINGS HAVE GONE SATURDAY AND LIKELY WILL TODAY,
I DID BUMP THEM UP A HAIR.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN SOLID AGREEMENT WITH STORM SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RAISED PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA AND ALSO TWEAKED WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT STRATIFORM PRECIP
IN THE MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE LOW DURING THE DAY AND
EVENING...CHANGING TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN PLUME BREAKS UP
AND HEIGHT FALLS MOVE IN. STILL EXPECTING UNSEASONABLY HIGH SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS STORM SO ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD
SEE THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA DRYING OUT WITH SMALL POPS
LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN CWA NEARER THE JET IN DIRTY ZONAL FLOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS PACIFIC AIR STREAMS OVER
THE CWA. THE NEXT STORM LOOKS POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN THAT TIME
FRAME SO WILL HOLD OFF TRYING TO PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD TREND TOWARD 5-8 KTS BY 16Z
TODAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KTS AROUND 20Z TODAY
WHERE THEY SHOULD HOLD AT THROUGH TONIGHT. GENERALLY BKN CLOUDS AOA
20K FEET ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS
AT 6-12 KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER HIGHER
RIDGETOPS AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FAVORED CANYONS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
MAINLY AOA 20K FEET THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW BASES AS LOW AS 15K
FEET IN AND AROUND KBIH.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...MORGAN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
220 AM PST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ALONG WITH MILD CONDITIONS. A STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND VERY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON AREA ROADWAYS. LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TODAY MARKS THE LAST DAY OF THE YEAR IN LAS VEGAS IN WHICH THE
NORMAL HIGH IS 60 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AS OF 2 AM WAS AT 62
DEGREES AT MCCARRAN AIRPORT AS ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES
TO STREAM INTO THE AREA COURTESY OF THE JET STREAM SITTING SMACK
OVERHEAD AND A SHORTWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED AT THE
PRESENT ABOUT 200 MILES OR SO OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THIS CREATES A
BIG CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AS MANY SITES ESPECIALLY ACROSS CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES HAD
FAILED TO REALLY DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND SOME WERE ALREADY EXCEEDING
FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH OUR CONTINUITY AS WELL AS WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE WRF AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE
INVERSION BREAKING BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAS VEGAS, WHICH HAPPENED
YESTERDAY AND RESULTED IN TEMPS GETTING MUCH WARMER THAN EXPECTED.
THE ONLY DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THAT FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS AND WATER
VAPOR TRENDS SHOW GLOBS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY PERSISTING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HEATING AND YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPS DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY ONCE
THE CIRRUS THICKENED UP ENOUGH. OVERALL, THE BEST THOUGHT WAS TO
NUDGE UP TEMPS TODAY AND GO WITH VALUES CLOSER TO THE ECMWF BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND WARMER WRF SOUNDING. WITH THE INVERSION
BREAKING AND WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOWN IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS A 70 KT JET AT 250 MB STILL OVERHEAD, GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME HIGHER RIDGETOPS AND FAVORED SPOTS DOWNWIND OF
CANYONS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH.
THE DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE CREST OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA. THE WRF AND HRRR MODELS STILL SUPPORT THIS. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 7000 FEET, HOWEVER, ANY ATTEMPT AT
ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE 10000 FEET GIVEN THE WARM GROUND
TEMPS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HIGH CLOUDS MAY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
FOR TONIGHT, SO READINGS SHOULD BE COOLER.
RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE DAY SHOULD START OFF SUNNIER, THE NEXT JET STREAK IS
SHOWN TO HEAD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER
BATCH OF THICK CIRRUS IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD BASES
LOWERING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
CALIFORNIA. HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE LOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY
AS THE INVERSION LOOKS TO HOLD AND MIXING IS WEAK IN THE VALLEYS.
HOWEVER, SEEING HOW THINGS HAVE GONE SATURDAY AND LIKELY WILL TODAY,
I DID BUMP THEM UP A HAIR.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN SOLID AGREEMENT WITH STORM SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RAISED PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA AND ALSO TWEAKED WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT STRATIFORM PRECIP
IN THE MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE LOW DURING THE DAY AND
EVENING...CHANGING TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN PLUME BREAKS UP
AND HEIGHT FALLS MOVE IN. STILL EXPECTING UNSEASONABLY HIGH SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS STORM SO ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD
SEE THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA DRYING OUT WITH SMALL POPS
LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN CWA NEARER THE JET IN DIRTY ZONAL FLOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS PACIFIC AIR STREAMS OVER
THE CWA. THE NEXT STORM LOOKS POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN THAT TIME
FRAME SO WILL HOLD OFF TRYING TO PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD TREND TOWARD 5-8 KTS BY 16Z
TODAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KTS AROUND 20Z TODAY
WHERE THEY SHOULD HOLD AT THROUGH TONIGHT. GENERALLY BKN CLOUDS AOA
20K FEET ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS
AT 6-12 KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER HIGHER
RIDGETOPS AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FAVORED CANYONS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
MAINLY AOA 20K FEET THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW BASES AS LOW AS 15K
FEET IN AND AROUND KBIH.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...MORGAN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
932 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM...WINDY AND GENERALLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DESPITE
CLOUDY SKIES. IT`LL BE WARM AND WINDY TONIGHT AS WELL AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN
MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG WITH SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 932 AM EST SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE WITH CURRENT FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S TO MID
40S, WITH WARMEST AREA BEING IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN THE WARMER AIR.
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER TOWARDS
MID-DAY, PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. UPSTREAM RADAR
SHOWS BASICALLY NOTHING...AND WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WE LACK ANY REAL LARGE-SCALE LIFT TO SUPPORT
PRECIP DEVELOPING SO EXPECT TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING IN THE 40S TO
LOCALLY NEAR 50 IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JAMES BAY LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG S-SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH TEMPS NOT REALLY FALLING
MUCH FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE FRONT IS RATHER MOISTURE-STARVED
WITH JUST ABOUT ZERO ECHOES NOTED ON UPSTREAM RADAR ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. A LITTLE INTERACTION WITH THE LAKES MAY BE ENOUGH TO
ENHANCE MOISTURE AND SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
OF ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS EXPECTED GOING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FELT
LIKE THE BEST OPTION. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING WILL BE KEY IN
OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WHICH REALLY SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD...BUT WESTWARD TEMPS
WILL BE FALLING INTO THE 30S BY DAWN.
FOR MONDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY GENERALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THE
MORNING. LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF SUGGEST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY
BLOCKED AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW SO PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW. BASED ON CURRENT THINKING FOR FROPA TIMING HIGHS WILL BE
OCCURRING EARLY IN THE MORNING RIGHT AROUND 12Z...THEN SHARPLY
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BY THE AFTERNOON TEMPS AREA-WIDE WILL BE
BACK IN THE 30S...WITH 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND TEENS ON
THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 12Z
TUESDAY. STILL COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS AND INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT...BUT
WOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND GENERALLY DISSIPATING. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL USHER IN A SEASONABLY COLD
AIR MASS WITH LOW TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. SUNDAY...DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR TUESDAY UNDER THE HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING BELOW
NORMAL WARMING ONLY INTO 20S...AND MAYBE TEENS IN THE COLDER
HOLLOWS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 243 AM EST SUNDAY...A FAST MID-UPR LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...BUT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE NOT FORESEEN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS EWD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WSWLY FLOW AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFT NEWD ACROSS OUR
REGION...BRINGING GUSTY S-SW WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURES WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO CHANGE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO
PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE UPR 20S/LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S REGION-WIDE ON WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A WNWLY WIND SHIFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS.
TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY DECEMBER AVERAGES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S. MODELS DIFFER ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY...AS ECMWF HAS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGING POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW. THE 00Z GFS IS MORE ILL-
DEFINED WITH THIS FEATURE. CARRIED JUST 20-30 POPS FOR NOW...AS
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES HAVE BEEN NOTED FOR SEVERAL CYCLES FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 30S ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING FROM SW-NE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IS BRINGING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS (3.5-5KFT)...BUT LOCALLY MVFR NEAR THE
MTNS INCLUDING AT SLK AND MPV TAF SITES (2-3 KFT). THE RAP MODEL
HINTS AT A FEW BREAKS LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...THE MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS WRN NY/PA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY 1-2 KFT...AND WITH A CHANCE OF SOME IFR
CEILINGS LATE...ESPECIALLY AT SLK. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG
INVERSION LAYER LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE
STRATUS LAYER WITHIN THIS LAYER OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY DRY WITH A
CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION
IN THE TAFS YET GIVEN SCATTERED NATURE AND UNCERTAIN TIMING OF ANY
-SHRA. COULD SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AT KSLK TOWARD 12Z
MONDAY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES INTO NRN NY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS MORNING...GENERALLY SOUTH AT MODERATE SPEEDS. CHANNELING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IS LEADING TO SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20KTS AND
GUSTS TO 25-30KTS AT BTV THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN GENERALLY
S-SSW 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW MVFR SNOW SHOWERS OTHER THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEXT WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SOUTH- SW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE...WITH WIND GUSTS
LIKELY EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT BTV 06-15Z WEDNESDAY. DRIER/VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
LEVEL JET PASSING OVERHEAD...BUT WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
THE DAY...FALLING TO BELOW 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXTREMELY
CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WITH WAVES OF 3 TO 5
FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATER
BETWEEN COLCHESTER POINT AND VALCOUR ISLAND.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...NASH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
707 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM...WINDY AND GENERALLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DESPITE
CLOUDY SKIES. IT`LL BE WARM AND WINDY TONIGHT AS WELL AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN
MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG WITH SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 620 AM EST SUNDAY...A STRONG WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE TIP OF JAMES BAY CONTINUES TO
SHIFT INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE TEMPS
ALREADY REACHING INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
50S BACK TOWARDS BUFFALO. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER LATER TOWARDS MID-DAY THE BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. UPSTREAM
RADAR SHOWS BASICALLY NOTHING...AND WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WE LACK ANY REAL LARGE-SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT PRECIP DEVELOPING SO EXPECT TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING IN THE 40S TO
LOCALLY NEAR 50 IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JAMES BAY LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG S-SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH TEMPS NOT REALLY FALLING
MUCH FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE FRONT IS RATHER MOISTURE-STARVED
WITH JUST ABOUT ZERO ECHOES NOTED ON UPSTREAM RADAR ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. A LITTLE INTERACTION WITH THE LAKES MAY BE ENOUGH TO
ENHANCE MOISTURE AND SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
OF ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS EXPECTED GOING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FELT
LIKE THE BEST OPTION. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING WILL BE KEY IN
OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WHICH REALLY SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD...BUT WESTWARD TEMPS
WILL BE FALLING INTO THE 30S BY DAWN.
FOR MONDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY GENERALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THE
MORNING. LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF SUGGEST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY
BLOCKED AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW SO PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW. BASED ON CURRENT THINKING FOR FROPA TIMING HIGHS WILL BE
OCCURRING EARLY IN THE MORNING RIGHT AROUND 12Z...THEN SHARPLY
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BY THE AFTERNOON TEMPS AREA-WIDE WILL BE
BACK IN THE 30S...WITH 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND TEENS ON
THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 12Z
TUESDAY. STILL COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS AND INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT...BUT
WOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND GENERALLY DISSIPATING. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL USHER IN A SEASONABLY COLD
AIR MASS WITH LOW TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. SUNDAY...DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR TUESDAY UNDER THE HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING BELOW
NORMAL WARMING ONLY INTO 20S...AND MAYBE TEENS IN THE COLDER
HOLLOWS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 243 AM EST SUNDAY...A FAST MID-UPR LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...BUT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE NOT FORESEEN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS EWD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WSWLY FLOW AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFT NEWD ACROSS OUR
REGION...BRINGING GUSTY S-SW WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURES WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO CHANGE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO
PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE UPR 20S/LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S REGIONWIDE ON WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A WNWLY WIND SHIFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS.
TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY DECEMBER AVERAGES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S. MODELS DIFFER ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY...AS ECMWF HAS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGING POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW. THE 00Z GFS IS MORE ILL-
DEFINED WITH THIS FEATURE. CARRIED JUST 20-30 POPS FOR NOW...AS
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES HAVE BEEN NOTED FOR SEVERAL CYCLES FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 30S ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING FROM SW-NE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IS BRINGING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS (3.5-5KFT)...BUT LOCALLY MVFR NEAR THE
MTNS INCLUDING AT SLK AND MPV TAF SITES (2-3 KFT). THE RAP MODEL
HINTS AT A FEW BREAKS LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...THE MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS WRN NY/PA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY 1-2 KFT...AND WITH A CHANCE OF SOME IFR
CEILINGS LATE...ESPECIALLY AT SLK. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG
INVERSION LAYER LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE
STRATUS LAYER WITHIN THIS LAYER OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY DRY WITH A
CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION
IN THE TAFS YET GIVEN SCATTERED NATURE AND UNCERTAIN TIMING OF ANY
-SHRA. COULD SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AT KSLK TOWARD 12Z
MONDAY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES INTO NRN NY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS MORNING...GENERALLY SOUTH AT MODERATE SPEEDS. CHANNELING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IS LEADING TO SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20KTS AND
GUSTS TO 25-30KTS AT BTV THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN GENERALLY
S-SSW 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW MVFR SNOW SHOWERS OTHER THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEXT WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SOUTH- SW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE...WITH WIND GUSTS
LIKELY EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT BTV 06-15Z WEDNESDAY. DRIER/VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
LEVEL JET PASSING OVERHEAD...BUT WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
THE DAY...FALLING TO BELOW 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXTREMELY
CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WITH WAVES OF 3 TO 5
FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATER
BETWEEN COLCHESTER POINT AND VALCOUR ISLAND.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...NASH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
920 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NC IN THE SW FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO
CROSS EASTERN NC IN THE WEE HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING. MAIN CONCERN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF DENSE FOG TO
FORM IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT WINDS WILL
BECOME CALM. THE HRRR MODEL AND THE NARRE ALONG WITH PRESSURE
CONDENSATION DEFICIT PROJECTIONS ARE ALL SUGGESTING THIS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT TIMING IS
PROBLEMATIC. THE HRRR/NARRE INDICATE BETWEEN 7-10Z BUT IT COULD
FORM SOONER IF TEMPERATURES FALL FASTER THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED.
THE BACK DOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 264 AFTER 06Z AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THAT BETWEEN 9-12Z
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
FRONT AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO INVADE FROM THE NORTH. THE GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS UNDERNEATH A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IN THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS A PERFECT SET
UP FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH ALL OF THE MODELS
INDICATE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR VERY
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH LATE AS THE
TAIL END OF DEEPER MOISTURE BRUSHES THAT AREA. WILL CONTINUE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE
BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...A CLOUDY COOL DAY IN STORE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. A DECENT INVERSION ACROSS THE
REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME
MODELS ILLUSTRATE A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...MID LEVELS LOOK DRY...TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT MUCH PRECIPITATION. SO HAVE TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO
JUST THE FAR NORTH. WITH NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS COMPARED TO MONDAY...HIGHS IN
THE LOW 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST. IF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
DEVELOP...TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM MONDAY...THINKING FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS GENERALLY THE
SAME WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS THIS WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES ON
WED.
TUESDAY NIGHT MAY SEE FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP AS TRANSIENT
HIGH PRES MOVES THROUGH WITH CALM WINDS EXPECTED AND T-TD
DEPRESSIONS NEAR 0. THE QUESTION WHICH WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT
FOG DEVELOPS WILL BE ANY LINGERING LOW STRATUS WHICH WOULD TEND TO
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT. LATEST MAV/MET GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT A FOG REGIME AS ARE LATEST BUFKIT PROFILES. WILL ADD MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
FOR WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALLOWING WAA/INCREASING
THICKNESSES. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST/SOUTHWEST AS THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST. THE RETURN FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL
ALLOW LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TO BUILD TO 1365-1370 METERS. LATEST
MODEL SUITE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ERODING WEAK CAD WEDGE
COMPLETELY ON WED...AND HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT IN
RESPONSE. EDGED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE LIKELY...THOUGH COULD BE EVEN A BIT WARMER IF THE
ECMENS MOS IS CORRECT IN ADVERTISING LOW 70S.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THUR MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING DECENT FRONTAL INVERSION AND CAD
THUR THROUGH FRI AS SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL/WESTERLY WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN ONE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 THUR/FRI.
CONTINUED TO EDGE POPS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS THIS WEEKEND AS ECMWF/CMC
AND NOW THE GFS ARE ADVERTISING A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COASTAL
LOW TO IMPACT THE AREA. THERE ARE SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS/CMC MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FLATTER WITH THE
SYSTEM AND ECM A BIT DEEPER AND THEREFORE SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM. HAVE THEREFORE CAPPED POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM MONDAY...TRICKY FORECAST AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN NC BETWEEN 06-12Z LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN FOG LATE THIS EVENING AND IN
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED BENEATH STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTAL INVERSION BEHIND THE
FRONT LEADING TO THE PRODUCTION OF IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY
AFTER 09Z. A CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
DEVELOPS TUESDAY WHICH USUALLY ACTS TO TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS LOCKED
IN BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE LOW
MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM AND GFS
KEEP SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS/NAM AND KEEP LOW CLOUDS BUT INDICATE RISING
CEILINGS FROM IFR TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THUR MORNING WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SUGGESTING MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NEXT PRECIP MAKER
LOOKS TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM MONDAY...SW FLOW 10 TO 15 KT CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST
FLOW/15 TO 25 KT/ AND HIGHEST SEAS/4 TO 6 FT/ EXPECTED NORTH OF
HATTERAS WITH 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY EXPECTED SOUTH. BASED ON
TRENDS IN THE MODELS HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE
WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/ALLIGATOR
RIVER FOR A MARGINAL EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...2 TO
4 FT SEAS THIS EVENING WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LATER
TUESDAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH SUBSIDING SEAS 2
TO 4 FT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 303 PM MON...WINDS BECOME VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY THOUGH LIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. ANOTHER BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS NORTH 10-20 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 4-6 FT NORTH AND CENTRAL WATERS AND TO 3-5 FT SOUTH. WINDS
SHIFT NE AND DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN APPEARED TO INITIALIZE WELL AND WAS
REASONABLE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GENERALLY UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH IN THE FAR EXTENDED AS THE GFS-BASED WINDS AND SEAS
APPEARED OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE FORECAST WINDS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL/LEP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
806 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC IN
THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN NC IN THE WEE HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF
DENSE FOG TO FORM IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT WINDS WILL BECOME CALM. THE HRRR MODEL AND THE
NARRE ALONG WITH PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICIT PROJECTIONS ARE ALL
SUGGESTING THIS WILL OCCUR BUT TIMING IS PROBLEMATIC. THE
HRRR/NARRE INDICATE BETWEEN 7-10Z BUT IT COULD FORM SOONER IF
TEMPERATURES FALL FASTER THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED.
THE BACK DOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 264 AFTER 06Z AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THAT BETWEEN 9-12Z
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
FRONT AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO INVADE FROM THE NORTH. THE GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS UNDERNEATH A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IN THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS A PERFECT SET
UP FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH ALL OF THE MODELS
INDICATE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR VERY
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH LATE AS THE
TAIL END OF DEEPER MOISTURE BRUSHES THAT AREA. WILL CONTINUE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE
BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...A CLOUDY COOL DAY IN STORE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. A DECENT INVERSION ACROSS THE
REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME
MODELS ILLUSTRATE A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...MID LEVELS LOOK DRY...TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT MUCH PRECIPITATION. SO HAVE TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO
JUST THE FAR NORTH. WITH NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS COMPARED TO MONDAY...HIGHS IN
THE LOW 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST. IF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
DEVELOP...TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM MONDAY...THINKING FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS GENERALLY THE
SAME WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS THIS WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES ON
WED.
TUESDAY NIGHT MAY SEE FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP AS TRANSIENT
HIGH PRES MOVES THROUGH WITH CALM WINDS EXPECTED AND T-TD
DEPRESSIONS NEAR 0. THE QUESTION WHICH WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT
FOG DEVELOPS WILL BE ANY LINGERING LOW STRATUS WHICH WOULD TEND TO
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT. LATEST MAV/MET GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT A FOG REGIME AS ARE LATEST BUFKIT PROFILES. WILL ADD MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
FOR WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALLOWING WAA/INCREASING
THICKNESSES. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST/SOUTHWEST AS THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST. THE RETURN FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL
ALLOW LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TO BUILD TO 1365-1370 METERS. LATEST
MODEL SUITE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ERODING WEAK CAD WEDGE
COMPLETELY ON WED...AND HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT IN
RESPONSE. EDGED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE LIKELY...THOUGH COULD BE EVEN A BIT WARMER IF THE
ECMENS MOS IS CORRECT IN ADVERTISING LOW 70S.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THUR MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING DECENT FRONTAL INVERSION AND CAD
THUR THROUGH FRI AS SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL/WESTERLY WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN ONE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 THUR/FRI.
CONTINUED TO EDGE POPS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS THIS WEEKEND AS ECMWF/CMC
AND NOW THE GFS ARE ADVERTISING A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COASTAL
LOW TO IMPACT THE AREA. THERE ARE SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS/CMC MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FLATTER WITH THE
SYSTEM AND ECM A BIT DEEPER AND THEREFORE SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM. HAVE THEREFORE CAPPED POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM MONDAY...TRICKY FORECAST AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN NC BETWEEN 06-12Z LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN FOG LATE THIS EVENING AND IN
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED BENEATH STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTAL INVERSION BEHIND THE
FRONT LEADING TO THE PRODUCTION OF IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY
AFTER 09Z. A CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
DEVELOPS TUESDAY WHICH USUALLY ACTS TO TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS LOCKED
IN BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE LOW
MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM AND GFS
KEEP SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS/NAM AND KEEP LOW CLOUDS BUT INDICATE RISING
CEILINGS FROM IFR TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THUR MORNING WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SUGGESTING MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NEXT PRECIP MAKER
LOOKS TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM MONDAY...SW FLOW 10 TO 15 KT CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST
FLOW/15 TO 25 KT/ AND HIGHEST SEAS/4 TO 6 FT/ EXPECTED NORTH OF
HATTERAS WITH 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY EXPECTED SOUTH. BASED ON
TRENDS IN THE MODELS HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE
WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/ALLIGATOR
RIVER FOR A MARGINAL EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...2 TO
4 FT SEAS THIS EVENING WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LATER
TUESDAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH SUBSIDING SEAS 2
TO 4 FT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 303 PM MON...WINDS BECOME VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY THOUGH LIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. ANOTHER BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS NORTH 10-20 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 4-6 FT NORTH AND CENTRAL WATERS AND TO 3-5 FT SOUTH. WINDS
SHIFT NE AND DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN APPEARED TO INITIALIZE WELL AND WAS
REASONABLE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GENERALLY UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH IN THE FAR EXTENDED AS THE GFS-BASED WINDS AND SEAS
APPEARED OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE FORECAST WINDS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ130-131.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL/LEP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
612 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC IN
THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN NC IN THE WEE HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF
DENSE FOG TO FORM IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT WINDS WILL BECOME CALM. THE HRRR MODEL AND THE
NARRE ALONG WITH PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICIT PROJECTIONS ARE ALL
SUGGESTING THIS WILL OCCUR BUT TIMING IS PROBLEMATIC. THE
HRRR/NARRE INDICATE BETWEEN 7-10Z BUT IT COULD FORM SOONER IF
TEMPERATURES FALL FASTER THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED.
THE BACK DOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 264 AFTER 06Z AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THAT BETWEEN 9-12Z
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
FRONT AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO INVADE FROM THE NORTH. THE GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS UNDERNEATH A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IN THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS A PERFECT SET
UP FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH ALL OF THE MODELS
INDICATE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR VERY
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH LATE AS THE
TAIL END OF DEEPER MOISTURE BRUSHES THAT AREA. WILL CONTINUE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE
BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...A CLOUDY COOL DAY IN STORE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. A DECENT INVERSION ACROSS THE
REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME
MODELS ILLUSTRATE A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...MID LEVELS LOOK DRY...TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT MUCH PRECIPITATION. SO HAVE TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO
JUST THE FAR NORTH. WITH NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS COMPARED TO MONDAY...HIGHS IN
THE LOW 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST. IF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
DEVELOP...TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM MONDAY...THINKING FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS GENERALLY THE
SAME WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS THIS WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES ON
WED.
TUESDAY NIGHT MAY SEE FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP AS TRANSIENT
HIGH PRES MOVES THROUGH WITH CALM WINDS EXPECTED AND T-TD
DEPRESSIONS NEAR 0. THE QUESTION WHICH WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT
FOG DEVELOPS WILL BE ANY LINGERING LOW STRATUS WHICH WOULD TEND TO
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT. LATEST MAV/MET GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT A FOG REGIME AS ARE LATEST BUFKIT PROFILES. WILL ADD MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
FOR WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALLOWING WAA/INCREASING
THICKNESSES. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST/SOUTHWEST AS THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST. THE RETURN FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL
ALLOW LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TO BUILD TO 1365-1370 METERS. LATEST
MODEL SUITE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ERODING WEAK CAD WEDGE
COMPLETELY ON WED...AND HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT IN
RESPONSE. EDGED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE LIKELY...THOUGH COULD BE EVEN A BIT WARMER IF THE
ECMENS MOS IS CORRECT IN ADVERTISING LOW 70S.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THUR MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING DECENT FRONTAL INVERSION AND CAD
THUR THROUGH FRI AS SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL/WESTERLY WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN ONE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 THUR/FRI.
CONTINUED TO EDGE POPS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS THIS WEEKEND AS ECMWF/CMC
AND NOW THE GFS ARE ADVERTISING A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COASTAL
LOW TO IMPACT THE AREA. THERE ARE SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS/CMC MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FLATTER WITH THE
SYSTEM AND ECM A BIT DEEPER AND THEREFORE SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM. HAVE THEREFORE CAPPED POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM MONDAY...TRICKY FORECAST AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN NC BETWEEN 06-12Z LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN FOG LATE THIS EVENING AND IN
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED BENEATH STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTAL INVERSION BEHIND THE
FRONT LEADING TO THE PRODUCTION OF IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY
AFTER 09Z. A CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
DEVELOPS TUESDAY WHICH USUALLY ACTS TO TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS LOCKED
IN BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE LOW
MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM AND GFS
KEEP SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS/NAM AND KEEP LOW CLOUDS BUT INDICATE RISING
CEILINGS FROM IFR TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THUR MORNING WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SUGGESTING MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NEXT PRECIP MAKER
LOOKS TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM MONDAY...SW FLOW 10 TO 15 KT CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST
FLOW/15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT/ EXPECTED NORTH OF HATTERAS
WITH 10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THIS EVENING WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LATER TUESDAY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH SUBSIDING SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 303 PM MON...WINDS BECOME VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY THOUGH LIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. ANOTHER BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS NORTH 10-20 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 4-6 FT NORTH AND CENTRAL WATERS AND TO 3-5 FT SOUTH. WINDS
SHIFT NE AND DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN APPEARED TO INITIALIZE WELL AND WAS
REASONABLE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GENERALLY UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH IN THE FAR EXTENDED AS THE GFS-BASED WINDS AND SEAS
APPEARED OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE FORECAST WINDS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL/LEP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
606 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE AS OF 600 PM SUNDAY...EASTERN NC WILL REMAIN IN A DEEP SW
FLOW OF MILD AIR IN THE CIRCULATION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT THUS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DEPENDENT ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL BE LIMITED BY LOW
LEVEL MIXING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DECOUPLING IN
SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS WHICH COULD LEAD TO WIDE RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES ACROSS A SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION AS MIXING KEEPS
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE SHELTERED LOCATIONS THAT
DECOUPLE COULD DROP BRIEFLY INTO THE UPPER 30S. WILL MAINTAIN
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S COAST WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT TEMPERATURES
COULD BOUNCE UP AND DOWN AS WINDS BECOME CALM THEN PICK UP AGAIN.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND NARRE ARE
INDICATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS COULD SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES SO WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY SUPPRESS AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
YIELD SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO THE UPPER LEVELS. AMPLE
DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND THE ONLY SATURATION NOTED IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SO EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH FILTERED
CIRRUS. AS A RESULT OF BOTH CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW...THICKNESS VALUES WILL REFLECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT AOA 70 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME TIMING DISAGREEMENT
STILL EXISTS AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH GFS ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER THAN THE ECM/NAM SO CONTINUED FOLLOWING SUITE WITH PREVIOUS
FCST. WHILE MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND VORTICITY REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY
ENDING TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN ZONES. TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN MONDAY AS IN- SITU CAD EVENT DEVELOPS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AREA- WIDE...STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGEST STRONG
FRONTAL INVERSION IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH MAINLY CLOUDY 1-1.5 K FT STRATUS
LAYER. HAVE ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE TO GRIDS...ESP NORTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP PER DISCUSSION ABOVE.
FROM MID THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...WE REMAIN IN A GENERALLY W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY SHIFTING WINDS NE THEN THE
COLD FRONT WASHES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LATEST 30/12Z ECMWF
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NC
COAST THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH VA/NC. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER FRI
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A MOSTLY VFR FORECAST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NC.
EXCEPTION IS LATE TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
THAT FOG WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
INTO NORTH CAROLINA POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS KOAJ AND KEWN LATE
TONIGHT AS SOME DECOUPLING OF THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THERE. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL QUICK TO DISSIPATE MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY...THOUGH EXPECT BIGGEST
IMPACT TO AVIATION LOW STRATUS IN MVFR TO POSSIBLE ISOLATED IFR
CIGS AT TIMES. VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN WED THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM SUNDAY...SWLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL PEAK TONIGHT AND RELAX A BIT ON MONDAY. EXPECTED WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE 15-20 KTS DIMINISHING TO TO 10-15 KTS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FOOT SETS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 2 TO 3 BY MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT A DRAMATIC INC IN WINDS TO NE AT
15-25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING 6-7 FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN AND
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z WAVEWATCH. GREATEST THREAT FOR SCA WILL BE
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...JME/LEP
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL/LEP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1049 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AS AIR IS LIFTED OVER THE FRONT. SUB FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
WORK EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
IN RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR LEVEL JET ALONG WITH SOME H8
JET CONVERGENCE LED TO WIDESPREAD AREA OF PCPN ACRS THE REGION
THIS AFTN. INITIAL WEAK IMPULSE EXITING THE REGION WITH PCPN IN A
GENERAL LULL ATTM.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT WEAK SYSTEM PIVOTING THRU THE REGION. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS WITH MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE STALLED SFC
FNT TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE A VERY LIGHT
QPF EVENT. LATEST RUNS WOULD SUGGEST MOST AREAS RECEIVE QPF OF
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WITH A NE LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND SUNRISE AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
RAP MODEL HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THIS EVENINGS 00Z ILN SOUNDING. HAVE
TRENDED HOURLY TEMPERATURE SOLN TOWARD LATEST RAP AND FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE ADJUSTED TOWARD SREF SOLN. THIS YIELDS
A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE EXISTING
FREEZING RAIN ADVSY AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED EXISTING FREEZING
RAIN ADVSY. HAVE ADDED SCIOTO COUNTY WHERE TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO BE
AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS UP LIGHT PCPN WILL CHANGE TO RAIN TUESDAY
MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
PREV DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOONS WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK
TO THE EAST. LATEST TIMING HAS IT LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...THE PCPN WILL GET SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL WORK TO
NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE STALLED
BOUNDARY. CRITICAL THICKNESSES ARE SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WORKING IN
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THE AREA COULD EXPERIENCE SOME
FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
EVENT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN NRN KENTUCKY WILL
STAY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT...SO THE THREAT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH. ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM THE CVG TRI-
STATE AREA OVER TO PIKE COUNTY OHIO...NORTHWARD TO AROUND I-70.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO
TO THE LOWER 30S IN NRN KENTUCKY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PCPN WILL LIFT NORTH QUICKLY ON TUESDAY. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM. FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER AROUND I-70 TO AROUND
18Z. NORTH OF I-70...PCPN SHOULD FALL AS SNOW OR SLEET. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM ON TUESDAY REACHING THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH
AND THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH.
THE PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PCPN WILL LINGER IN THE EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN WEDNESDAY AND WILL BECOME MORE ENTRENCHED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RECOVER INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S,
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD
TO SOME DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL VARIATION IN THE ONSET OF ANY PCPN
THOUGH SO WILL TREND TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE
FASTER GFS AND SLOWER CMC. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HAVE SOME LOWER
CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN ALLOW FOR HIGHER CHANCE POPS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT. PTYPE COULD BE A BIT OF AN ISSUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE PCPN MOVES IN AND/OR THE COLDER
AIRMASS RETREATS NORTHWARD IN THE DEVELOPING WAA. FOR NOW WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE CHANGING PCPN
OVER TO ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF
AND 12Z CMC ARE STRONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND LINGER
CHANCE POPS THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SOME MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND DRYING WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIAL WEAK IMPULSE EXITING THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. AREA OF
PCPN DEVELOPED ACRS ILN/S AREA NORTH OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER TN VLY. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTED RAIN TO SLEET P-TYPE. THE
REGION IN A GENERAL LULL THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT WITH MID
LEVEL CIGS YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS. FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT WEAK SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS WITH MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE STALLED
SFC FNT TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PCPN TO AFFECT KCVG AROUND
09Z AND SPREAD NORTH ACRS THE TAF SITES THRU 12Z. PCPN EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT BUT THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS UP. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR
CATEGORY IN PCPN AND THEN TO IFR DURG THE AFTN.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO
EAST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH EAST TUESDAY AFTN.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
OHZ053>056-060>065-073-074.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
OHZ070>072-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
KYZ091>093.
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
INZ058-059.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
INZ066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
650 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH TONIGHT. ICE IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT INTERSECTS COLD AIR BEHIND IT
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST BASED ON
NEWEST HIGH RES MODELS. ALSO WANT TO POINT OUT THAT THE 18Z MAV
HAS COME IN A TOUCH WARMER ON SURFACE TEMPS. IN FACT...IT KEEPS
MUCH OF THE CWA ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER HRRR AND RUC
STILL SHOW SOME TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN SE OHIO AND N WEST
VIRGINIA. NO CHANGES MADE TO ON GOING ADVISORY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH
WEST VIRGINIA. A MARKED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACCOMPANIES THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT.
THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR GETS SFC TEMPERATURES DOWN TO FREEZING IN
INTERIOR SE OH AND IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 BY DAWN TUE.
COLD ENOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES...WITH WARM ENOUGH AIR ALOFT...FOR A
FREEZING RAIN EVENT...WITH COLDER AIR LIKELY NOT ERODING UNTIL
TUESDAY WHEN THE HIGH ACROSS EASTERN U.S. SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST...AND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LAST COLD POCKETS IN RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES SHOULD BE
GIVING UP AND SURRENDERING DURING TUESDAY EVENING...AS THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWEST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS A
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS AT 925 MB SHOULD NOT
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE THEN SLIDES BACK THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER 850
MB TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TRYING TO CREEP EAST AND SOUTH. WAS A
BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC TRYING TO BRING SOME CLEARING INTO SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HELD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THICKENING.
DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOURLY POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...TRENDED HIGHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS A BIT FROM THE SOUTH UNDER WESTERLY FLOW AT H850.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK H500 SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL FLOW BRINGS
LOW CHANCE FOR PCPN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE GFS/NAM
MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE IN THEIR QPF FIELDS...WHILE FLOW BACK FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BY 06Z FRIDAY AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS.
GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TO CHANCE ACROSS
CENTRAL WV BY MID DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES AT H850 LOOK WARM ENOUGH
FOR LIQUID PCPN WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL LYING NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER WAVE...EVIDENT IN H500 HEIGHTS AND VORTICITY MAXIMA
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST 00Z SATURDAY...TO PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN EVEN
STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO WV
BY 06Z SUNDAY. THIS LATER WAVE GAIN HIGH AMPLITUDE ACCORDING TO THE
ECMWF MODEL WHILE THE GFS DIFFERS KEEPING THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. FREEZING LEVEL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...UNLESS THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION MATERIALIZE AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE BECOMES
A CLOSED LOW. DISAGREEMENT AMONG THESE TWO MODELS REFLECTS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THEREFORE...CARRIED ONLY CHANCES POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE ECMWF BRINGS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES/LOWS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD...NOT SEEN ON GFS SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME.
WENT WITH HPC TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART. MAY SEE PKB CLIMB
TOWARDS VFR EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DROPPING BACK DOWN AS A
SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES AND SURGES MOISTURE BACK NORTH. MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF SLEET THIS EVENING WITH COLDEST 850MB TEMPS. BUT 850
TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES...MAINLY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. TEMPS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING...WITH JUST RAIN. WINDS SLOWLY TURN FROM NW TO E THEN SE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF TRANSITIONS BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR MAY
VARY. FREEZING RAIN WOULD NOT OCCUR IF TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY L H H H M M M M M H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ009>011-020-031-032-040.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR OHZ075-076-083>085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ/LS
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
302 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WITH A MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
IN ITS WAKE WILL SAG THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL
RESIDE FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TO FAR SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY ON MONDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AS WELL AS A TWENTY DEGREE TEMPERATURE
DROP IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER IT PASSES. THE FRONT WILL SLOW A
LITTLE ON ITS SOUTHWARD TREK ON MONDAY AS IT SAGS INTO VIRGINIA
AND TENNESSEE...AND WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LINGER RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THIS AREA BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COLDER ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT
RETURNS NORTHWARD BY MIDWEEK WITH MILD AIR AND A RETURNING THREAT
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERLAYING YESTERDAY/S FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID 30.12Z AT ILN
WITH ILN RAOB AS VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN THAT NWP GUIDANCE HAS
VASTLY OVERESTIMATED MIXING RATIOS/SATURATION BELOW 900MB LAST NIGHT
THROUGH TODAY. THUS...DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER HAS
REMAINED ABOUT 1KM TO 1.2KM DEEP FROM LATE LAST NIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY AND HAS KEPT DZ/RA-- PRODUCTION AT BAY THUS FAR. WOULD
MUCH PREFER TO SEE THE SATURATED LAYER EXCEED 1.5KM AND CLOSER TO
2.0KM FOR A LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER TO PRODUCE -DZ/RA-- IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR LOWER 100MB
BOUNDARY LIKE WHAT WE HAVE IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR TODAY. CLOUD
CIGS REMAIN STUBBORNLY IN THE 2-3KFT LAYER AGL SO WE/VE BEEN
PROGRESSIVELY DELAYING MEASURABLE RAIN THREATS. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR EVEN WARMER READINGS /MANY LOCATIONS IN MID 60S/ AND DWPTS
HAVE CHECKED IN ABOUT 5F-7F LOWER...STRUGGLING TO BREACH
50F...THUS T/TD SPREADS ARE > 10F MOST LOCATIONS.
ALL THAT STARTING TO CHANGE HOWEVER AS SHARP/ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND GLANCING BLOW FROM PARENT HEIGHT FALLS SWEEPING
ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER IS FORCING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SYNOPTIC ASCENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. KIWX WSR-88D HAS RECENTLY
DEPICTED BLOSSOMING ECHOES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS
DEPICTED AT 30.18Z TO RUN FROM GRAND RAPIDS /MI/ TO CHICAGO TO SPRINGFIELD
/IL/. THE FURTHER SOUTH/WEST YOU TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT IN
IL/MO/OK...THE SHARPER THE TEMP GRADIENT /30F ACROSS ONE OR TWO
COUNTIES IN SOME CASES/. HOWEVER...LACK OF BLOCKING IN THE FAST
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP THE ARCTIC POOL OF BITTERLY COLD AIR
TRUCKING ON EAST /AND MODIFYING/ VS. SOUTHEAST AND THUS OUR LOCAL
AREA BECOMES MORE AND MORE REMOVED FROM THE COLDEST AIR W/TIME.
THUS...TEMP GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. WILL STILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH UP TO A 20 DEGREE TEMP DROP OVER 3-4 HOURS AND A
RATHER ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST /WITH GUSTS/. HAVE
FOLLOWED RAW 2M MODEL TEMP BLEND CLOSELY TO MITIGATE MINOR SPEED
DIFFERENCES OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS PUTS FRONT TO SCIOTO COUNTY
/OH/ BY 12Z MONDAY..WITH TEMPS AT SUNRISE ON MONDAY LIKELY RANGING
FROM NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING /CELINA OH/ TO THE LOW TO MID 50S
/PORTSMOUTH/.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF NCEP HI-RES WINDOW GUIDANCE /ARW AND NMM
CORES/ WITH SUBJECTIVE INTERPOLATION OF 30.17Z ESRL HRRR FOR
TIMING OF RAIN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THESE DATA SUGGEST WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AND A FINE LINE OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP
ALONG/IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
PARTICULARLY AFTER 00Z. RECENT RADAR TRENDS TO OUR NW SUPPORT THIS
REASONING. ALREADY SEEING SW-NE ORIENTED BANDS OF -DZ
ACRS WCNTL OH NOW IN FRONT OF PRIMARY FINE LINE ALONG FRONT.
KEEPING A 60-75% OF MEASURABLE RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. AM PROBABLY TO LONG /DURATION/ WITH
THREAT OF RAIN GIVEN DEPICTIONS IN SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY BUT
TRIED TO KEEP RAIN TO NO MORE THAN 2-3 HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW OVER KY TOMORROW AS IT SAGS SOUTH OF
STRONGER/FASTER WESTERLY FLOW...BECOMING MORE PARALLEL THE DEEP
LAYER FLOW. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO LINGER RAIN IN NORTHERN KY/FAR
SOUTHERN OHIO /APPROX SOUTH OF CINCINNATI TO CHILLICOTHE LINE/
INTO THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE 30.12Z RUNS OF
GFS/ECMWF WHICH ENHANCE POST FRONTAL PCPN BANDS LATE MORNING/AFTN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF AFOREMENTIONED LINE. QPF SEEMS LIGHT...BUT BOTH
MODELS SUGGESTING 0.10 TO 0.20" QPF DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /FGEN/ SIGNAL THAT ACCOMPANIES BRIEF WINDOW OF
RIGHT ENTRANCE ULJ FORCING THAT HAS WEAK SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY
EMBEDDED IN THIS ANTICYCLONIC PORTION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS CAUSES
CONCERN BECAUSE OF MARGINAL/CRITICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BY THE TIME...AS CAA WILL BE STRONG AND TEMPS/DWPTS
WILL HAVE FALLEN/OR BE FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING...ESP ALONG OHIO
RIVER. CLOSER INSPECTION OF 30.12Z LAYER MAX WET BULB TEMPS
SUGGESTS 30.12Z ECMWF IS VERY BULLISH/FAST WITH THE CAA WHILE
30.12Z NAM/SREF MEAN THE SLOWEST...WITH 30.12Z GFS A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION. UNFORTUNATELY 30.12Z ECMWF IS ALSO MOST ROBUST WITH
ITS LIGHT QPF DISTRIBUTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE
STRONGEST CONTRIBUTION FROM THE UPPER JET - SO THIS PRESENTS A
LOWER-END THREAT OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /VIA WET BULB PROCESSES AND
CAA/ FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KY AND/OR SRN OHIO MONDAY BEFORE
PRECIPITATION WANES. HAVE NOT REALLY SEEN THIS THREAT ON PRIOR
PARALLEL GFS...OPNL NAM...OR HIGHER RES GEM/HIRES-WINDOW
RUNS...THESE PUSH FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND THUS POST FRONTAL PCPN
BANDS DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND IN WARMER AIR /RAIN/. ALSO...COARSE
30.12Z ECMWF FORECAST SOUNDINGS /NOT NATIVE MODEL RES/ SUGGESTS MID
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY INHIBIT MUCH PRECIP PRODUCTION AND PERHAPS HIGHER
QPF DEPICTION FURTHER NORTH INTO COLD AIR A FUNCTION OF COARSE GRID
RESOLUTION. SO MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO 1) LINGER HIGHER END
RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTH ON MONDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND
2) ALLOW FOR THIS TO MIX WITH SNOW AS A START WITHOUT ANY
ACCUMULATION. UPCOMING SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A LOWER END/OUTLIER THREAT FOR A STRIPE OF LIGHT/WET
ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY AFTN SHOULD A MORE ROBUST
COLDER/WETTER ECMWF SCENARIO GARNER MORE NWP SUPPORT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BATCH OF MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING/WEAK VORT MAX AND RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND THUS EXPECT
A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS
1045MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SERN CANADA AND OUR
SOURCE REGION AIRMASS EMANATES FROM THIS FEATURE ON NELY FLOW. A
CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BEFORE BACKING
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW ALREADY STARTS TO ALLOW MIXING/EROSION OF
THE VERY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS BY TUESDAY. AM ALLOWING MAX TEMPS
ON TUESDAY BACK NEAR 40F BUT WAA WILL BE ONGOING ESPECIALLY JUST
OFF THE SURFACE SO THESE READINGS COULD BE A LITTLE COOL GIVEN
925MB TEMPS BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BE 0C TO +5C ALREADY IN THE
STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME. RATHER DECENT S/W TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
MN/WI TUESDAY NIGHT /INDUCING THE BACKING FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/ WILL ALLOW REMNANT MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
SHALLOW COLD DOME TO PERHAPS PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS EAST OF I-71 TUESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT ANY POTENTIAL
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALLOWING
FOR MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. AS IS
TYPICAL IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THEIR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES. AS A RESULT...IT IS TOUGH TO RULE OUT A CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD
THE BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING AFFECTING MORE OF OUR SOUTHERN FA
THOUGH...SO WILL TREND POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH THE LOWEST POPS
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES
THOUGH...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY OR LOWER. THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY RAIN...BUT DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT...SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN ACROSS
THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA IS IN A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
POSITIONED OVER ILLINOIS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
HAS PRODUCED MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT LUK.
HOWEVER...LIGHT RAIN THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO HAVE DEVELOPED HAS NOT.
THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF THE ONSET OF RAIN. STILL
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS WITH RAIN TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. LOOK FOR SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST...THOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP WILL PROBABLY LINGER AT
LEAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
354 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST STAYING NORTH OF THE LAKE BETWEEN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE A LITTLE
OVER NW OH EARLY THIS MORNING...MOSTLY CLOUDY SHOULD HANDLE IT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE/SHOWERS SO
FAR. BACKING OFF ON THE THREAT FOR THE MORNING AND KEEPING A
CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE OK
AND SOME OMEGA...SO A CHANCE LOOKS GOOD. WILL GO WITH LIKELY OVER
NW OH BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSER TO THAT AREA SO THEY WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO GET SOME SHOWERS. HIGHS ARE TOUGH TODAY.
WITH A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WENT
TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. RECORDS HIGHS ARE
MAINLY NEAR 70 FOR TODAY AND THE NORMAL IS IN THE MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WENT WITH LIKELY ESPECIALLY EARLY AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. THERE SEEMS
TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND OMEGA FOR LIKELY. STABLE SO NO MENTION OF
THUNDER. QPF SHOULD BE LESS THEN A QUARTER. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT
MOVE IN THAT QUICK...THE GFS SEEMS TOO FAST I.E. THE 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS DROPS TOO QUICKLY VERSUS THE 850 TEMPERATURE. KEPT THE
THREAT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. ON MONDAY PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND WITH A
RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE THE THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCE. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY AND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO KEPT THE POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA. THE HIGHS ARE WEDNESDAY ARE TOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WENT
A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEARLY ZONAL FAST MOVING FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND SO SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION AND CAUSE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THEN...AS HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON FRIDAY AND MOSTLY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LLWS REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN
A WITH 2KFT WINDS 23050KT ON AVERAGE. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH
MVFR TO NEAR IFR BY MORNING. HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS LIGHT RAIN MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL OHIO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
THINKING WHATEVER DEVELOPS WILL BE LIGHT AND WEST WITH EITHER
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL BE LOW MVFR...DROPPING
TO IFR TIME TO TIME IN DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY IN LIGHT SHOWERS AND COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY KEEP
WINDS AT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT
WILL STILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING. THEN...AS COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AGAIN. MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON MONDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING AND
BECOME EASTERLY. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THEY DO
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY SO I DONT SEE DROPPING SMALL CRAFT
ANY TIME IN THE NEAR FUTURE. ACTUALLY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS FINALLY DROP OFF TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1254 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEED OF WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...AND MILD
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING CONTINUING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
LIGHT RAIN BEFORE COMING TO AN END. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SWRLY SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. NUMERICAL
MODELS SHOWING A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BETWEEN 800-850 MB TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WITH DRY AIR
ABOVE. AIRMASS TO MOISTEN UP WITH GOOD SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LLJ. IN WAA PATTERN WITH GOOD WINDS AND CLOUDS TEMPS LOOKS TO
HOLD NEARLY STEADY OR SLIGHT RISE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER BASED ON TRENDS. HRRR AND RAP
SOLNS WUD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPS TO OUR NE AND ILN/S FA
STAYS DRY OVERNIGHT. HAVE SLOWED DOWN ONSET BUT GIVEN LIFT AND LLJ
HAVE KEPT A LOW POP CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.
PREV DISCUSSION...
MID AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGESTED THE LONG-
ADVERTISED MOIST SWLY FETCH WAS ENTRENCHING ITSELF ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE DATA SHOWED A LARGE REGION
OF STRATUS /2-3KFT CEILINGS IN THE LOCAL AREA/ FROM SRN OHIO ALL
THE WAY TO LOUISIANA. 29.19Z RTMA DWPT ANALYSIS AND METARS SHOWED
TONGUE OF 50+ DWPTS FROM SERN MO TO THE GULF COAST SPREADING
NORTHEAST...AND 40+ DWPTS HAD ALREADY MADE IT INTO THE TRI-STATE
AREA WITH RAPID/STRONG MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING ON 30-40KT 925MB
JET PER WSR-88D VWP NETWORK. WHILE THERE HAD BEEN SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS ARK/MO EARLIER...MOISTURE THUS FAR HAS
LARGELY REMAINED TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE REPORTABLE
PRECIPITATION...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SHALLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
FOR TONIGHT...FIRST TEMPERATURES...SAW NO REASON TO SHOW ANY DROP
TO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HAVE TAKEN MID AFTERNOON READINGS AND
USED THOSE AS A SPRINGBOARD TO CONTINUED SLOW RISE OVERNIGHT. SOME
AREAS MAY BRIEFLY STEADY OUT OR SLOWLY FALL AT VARIOUS TIMES
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT BULK OF HI-RES DATA AND SUBJECTIVE
1000-900MB TEMP ADVECTION SUGGESTS TEMPS AT 12Z WILL BE 3-4F
HIGHER THAN THEY WILL BE AT 00Z THIS EVENING...SO LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET AND RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S.
29.09Z AND 29.15Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE /0.01"/ PRECIP
CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...WITH BULK OF
DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF /ECMWF...NAM...GFS...AND VARIOUS CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE/ CONTINUING WITH THE CLASSIC DRIZZLE QPF OUTPUT
LOOK /LARGE AREAS OF SPECKLED VERY LIGHT QPF/. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODEL SOURCES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH INFLUX OF MOISTURE MENTIONED IN
OBSERVATIONAL DATA ABOVE. BY 06Z...DEPTH OF SATURATED />85% RH/
LAYER WILL BE NEAR 1.5KM...WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR DRIZZLE
PRODUCTION ESPECIALLY IN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR SURFACE BOUNDARY/FOCUS MECHANISMS. FCST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW AN INCREASE TOWARD 60KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER SUGGESTING SOME TURBULENCE MAY ENHANCE VERTICAL
MOTIONS AND COLLISION/COALESCENCE PROCESSES. MODEL QPF SHOW
EXPANSION/DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 06Z IN ACCORDANCE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. 285-295K
LAYERED ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND MIXING RATIOS ALL COINCIDE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET SO PUSHED MEASURABLE RAIN
CHANCES /VIA DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN/ TOWARD LATER IN THE
NIGHT. IN A RELATIVE SENSE...MOST OF THE NWP FOCUS ON OHIO FOR THE
BEST CHANCES OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN PEAKING TOWARD THE END OF
THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THREAT FOR DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES INTO AND THROUGH
SUNDAY. DEPTH OF SATURATED LAYER REMAINS NEAR 1.5 KM LENDING SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO HOW WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE OR AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE /WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS CLOSER TO 2KM GIVEN ABSENCE OF
SHORTWAVE OR DEEPER VERTICAL MOTION/. THINK THE ONGOING 60%
CHANCES WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING STILL HOLD AS A GOOD START...GIVEN
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE DEPTH ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT THE
ALMOST UNANIMOUS 0.05-0.10" QPF ON MODELS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. VERIFIED AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE FAR LESS THAN WHAT
MODELS ARE SHOWING...ANYWHERE FROM A HUNDREDTH OR TWO TO FIVE
HUNDREDTHS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WAVES OF VERY WEAK LOWER LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION TIED TO ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND SUBTLE INCREASES/DECREASES IN DEPTH OF SATURATED LAYER
SUGGEST DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN AREAS WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS AT
ANY ONE LOCATION. GIVEN SIGNAL HASN/T CHANGED OVER THE PAST 48
HOURS...WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY WITH ONGOING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR
A VERY LIGHT AMOUNT EVENT THAT WILL LIKELY MEASURE AT SOME POINT
BUT IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS WILL BE A VERY LIGHT RAIN EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WON/T WARM TOO MUCH FROM EARLY MORNING WARMTH GIVEN
THE THICK LOW CLOUDS AND DAMP CONDITIONS...BUT MID/UPPER 50S AND
PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S LOOKS REASONABLE.
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CUT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
IS WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN BECOMES MORE CERTAIN AS THE
MOISTURE/FORCING PEAK IN A RELATIVE SENSE NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL FGEN CIRCULATION CLEARLY SHOWN MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. DEPTH OF SATURATED LAYER EASILY SURPASSES 2KM
WHICH SHOULD BE PLENTY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH MAGNITUDE OR QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
THREATEN ANY CHANGE TO SNOW. SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR
VERY BRIEF MIX IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SLOW A BIT BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY CHANGE IN PHASE OF PRECIP.
MONDAY WILL BE A MUCH COLDER DAY AS BRIEF CP INTRUSION MOVES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE STEADY OR SHOW ONLY SLOW RISES
THROUGH THE DAY OWING TO DECENT NNELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC
LIFT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER FORCING MAY
REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOWER CHANCE
AT THIS POINT...PRIMARILY ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA.
IN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT SOME NON
DIURNAL TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER40S/LOWER 50S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL HELP PUSH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S
SOUTH.
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER SURGE
OF MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALOFT...LEADING TO GOOD CHANCE OF PCPN TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE
THAT SOME OF THE PCPN COULD START OFF AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER IN
THE WAA PATTERN...WOULD EXPECT A TRANSITION TO MORE RAIN LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH...INCREASING TO MID 40S NORTH
TO LOWER 50S SOUTH ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRYING AIRMASS
WILL THEN TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FEED OF WARM...MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF COAST WILL AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FIRST 12Z HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOOKING AT
THE 00Z KILN SOUNDING AND LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS...IT IS APPARENT
THAT MANY OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TOO MOIST AND TOO DEEP
WITH THE LAYER OF SATURATION. AS A RESULT...THEY CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE LOW CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE WHICH ARE
NOT OCCURRING. THUS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE TIMING FOR IFR CEILINGS
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THINK
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS WITH SOME
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z.
THEREAFTER...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. A LITTLE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NEAR THE FRONTAL
ZONE. BY THIS TIME...IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES SHOULD
BECOME MORE COMMON. THE FRONT WILL SLIP PAST THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
04Z AND 06Z AND THEN SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY
12Z MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON A NORTH WIND. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THEN BUT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
INTO MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/AR
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1228 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST STAYING NORTH OF THE
LAKE BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND IT WILL BE CLOUDY. NO SHOWERS ON RADAR BUT ALL THE MODELS
AGREE THAT EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK.
CONTINUED THE CHANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE HERE
AND THERE LATER TONIGHT. NOTHING ON RADAR YET BUT WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOME LIFT EVENTUALLY
THINK SOME PRECIP SHOULD START TO OCCUR. NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL BE
MEASURABLE VERSUS JUST SPRINKLES SO WILL BACK DOWN POPS TO KEEP
ALL AREAS IN CHANCE CATEGORY...EXCEPT NW WHERE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THRU DAYBREAK AS
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR SITUATION ON SUNDAY AS PROFILES SUGGESTING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME. TRIED TO SUGGEST WITH LOWER
MIDDAY POPS THAT THERE MIGHT BE A LULL...VS SUGGESTING AN ALL OUT
RAINY DAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT NEARS. MILD SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT NEARING
TOLEDO UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP LOOKS TO EXIT BEFORE
IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION.
DRYING MONDAY ALONG WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. NO SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT...BUT WILL KEEP THE LAKE CLOUDS WITH THE H8-LAKE TEMP
DIFFERENCE OF 13C OR SO AND MAYBE A FLURRY/20 POP FOR A SNOW
SHOWER IN THE SNOWBELT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND HAVE
LITTLE CHANCE AT MUCH OF TEMPERATURE RISE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY/TN VALLEY AND WILL BRING CLOUD COVER BACK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIP MIGHT BE A POSSIBILITY BUT HELD THAT OFF
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. WILL DO NO BETTER THAN THE 30S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AGAIN THERE WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE TO
LIFT SO ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE AT THIS POINT...MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. TIMING OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IN THE MODELS
LEADS US TO UNCERTAINTY WITH ITS TIMING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE BUT ALL OF
THEM TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE EAST TO NE MOVEMENT OF THE JET
ENERGY. WE DID CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LLWS REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN
A WITH 2KFT WINDS 23050KT ON AVERAGE. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH
MVFR TO NEAR IFR BY MORNING. HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS LIGHT RAIN MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL OHIO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
THINKING WHATEVER DEVELOPS WILL BE LIGHT AND WEST WITH EITHER
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL BE LOW MVFR...DROPPING
TO IFR TIME TO TIME IN DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY IN LIGHT SHOWERS AND COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A 40 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET MOVING OVER THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE WITH A CONTINUED 15 TO
20+ KNOT WIND ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD
ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MENTOR TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE
SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST IT APPEARS THAT WAVES WILL BUILD BACK TO AT LEAST 4
FEET. AT THIS POINT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE PULLED
BACK WESTWARD TOWARD VERMILION. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DECREASE
ENOUGH BY MONDAY EVENING TO ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO END.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1135 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST STAYING NORTH OF THE
LAKE BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD
KEEP SKIES CLOUDY. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE
LATER TONIGHT. NOTHING ON RADAR YET BUT WITH MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOME LIFT EVENTUALLY THINK SOME
PRECIP SHOULD START TO OCCUR. NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL BE MEASURABLE
VERSUS JUST SPRINKLES SO WILL BACK DOWN POPS TO KEEP ALL AREAS IN
CHANCE CATEGORY...EXCPET NW WHERE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THRU DAYBREAK AS
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR SITUATION ON SUNDAY AS PROFILES SUGGESTING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME. TRIED TO SUGGEST WITH LOWER
MIDDAY POPS THAT THERE MIGHT BE A LULL...VS SUGGESTING AN ALL OUT
RAINY DAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT NEARS. MILD SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT NEARING
TOLEDO UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP LOOKS TO EXIT BEFORE
IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION.
DRYING MONDAY ALONG WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. NO SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT...BUT WILL KEEP THE LAKE CLOUDS WITH THE H8-LAKE TEMP
DIFFERENCE OF 13C OR SO AND MAYBE A FLURRY/20 POP FOR A SNOW
SHOWER IN THE SNOWBELT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND HAVE
LITTLE CHANCE AT MUCH OF TEMPERATURE RISE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY/TN VALLEY AND WILL BRING CLOUD COVER BACK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIP MIGHT BE A POSSIBILITY BUT HELD THAT OFF
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. WILL DO NO BETTER THAN THE 30S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AGAIN THERE WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE TO
LIFT SO ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE AT THIS POINT...MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. TIMING OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IN THE MODELS
LEADS US TO UNCERTAINTY WITH ITS TIMING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE BUT ALL OF
THEM TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE EAST TO NE MOVEMENT OF THE JET
ENERGY. WE DID CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LLWS REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN
A WITH 2KFT WINDS 23050KT ON AVERAGE. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH
MVFR TO NEAR IFR BY MORNING. HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS LIGHT RAIN MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL OHIO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
THINKING WHATEVER DEVELOPS WILL BE LIGHT AND WEST WITH EITHER
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL BE LOW MVFR...DROPPING
TO IFR TIME TO TIME IN DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY IN LIGHT SHOWERS AND COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A 40 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET MOVING OVER THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE WITH A CONTINUED 15 TO
20+ KNOT WIND ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD
ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MENTOR TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE
SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST IT APPEARS THAT WAVES WILL BUILD BACK TO AT LEAST 4
FEET. AT THIS POINT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE PULLED
BACK WESTWARD TOWARD VERMILION. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DECREASE
ENOUGH BY MONDAY EVENING TO ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO END.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
801 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
.UPDATE...
LOWS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBS/HRRR MODEL TRENDS. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST HRRR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK FROM WEST
TO EAST TOWARD DAWN. HOWEVER...IT IS TYPICAL FOR THE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO GET RID OF THE LOW CLOUDS FASTER THAN IT ACTUALLY
OCCURS THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR THIS UPDATE...I HAVE TWEAKED LOWS UP
IN THE WEST A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE REAL POSSIBILITY THAT THE
CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE A BLANKET THE ENTIRE NIGHT.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT WESTERN ARKANSAS
SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHER CEILINGS WILL
PREVAIL AT EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO ALL SITES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THIN LAYER SC CLOUD OVER FORECAST AREA PROBLEMATIC
FOR THE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW PERSISTENT THAT CLOUD LAYER WILL BE.
FAIRLY CONFIDENT NORTHWEST AR ZONES WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY WHILE WESTERN ZONES EVENTUALLY CLEAR. USING
LATEST RUC/HRRR SOLUTION WHICH LEADS TO TEENS WEST
LOW-MID 20S EAST WITH CLOUD COVER.
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BACK TO WEST - SOUTHWEST
OPENING DOOR TO INCREASING MOISTURE ON LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW. CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH UPPER SUPPORT.
LOW CHANCE/MARGINAL POP SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH I-40.
UPPER WAVE THAT REACHES THE WEST COAST FRIDAY WILL
BRING OUR AREA A GOOD (OR BETTER) CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SLOWER ECMWF WOULD TARGET
LATE SUNDAY..WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BIT ABOVE
NORMAL. GW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 20 42 32 47 / 0 0 0 20
FSM 30 47 37 49 / 10 0 10 30
MLC 20 45 37 52 / 0 0 10 30
BVO 19 40 24 46 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 25 42 32 46 / 10 0 10 30
BYV 25 44 33 46 / 10 0 10 30
MKO 23 42 34 46 / 0 0 10 30
MIO 23 40 27 47 / 0 0 0 10
F10 21 43 35 46 / 0 0 10 30
HHW 26 47 40 53 / 10 0 10 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
319 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A THIN AND SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB IS KEEPING A
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECK OVER THE AREA. THE GFS IS QUICK TO
ERODE THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...WHILE THE NAM MAINTAINS IT THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST...AND WILL GO WITH THIS
SOLUTION. THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...WITH THE
COOLEST TEMPS IN THE PLATEAU (UPPER 50S) AND WARMEST IN THE
FOOTHILLS (MID 60S). AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE NW. MOISTURE REMAINS TOO SHALLOW FOR PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING NW IN CASE THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP IS SIMILAR TO THE SREF...WHICH IS A BIT FASTER
THAN SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS.
.LONG TERM...
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL BE THE STORY IN THE LONG TERM. THE WEAK NATURE OF
THESE SYSTEMS AND THE MODELS DISCREPANCY IN HANDLING THEM HAS LED TO
A SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO RAIN CHANCES.
FIRST AND MOST LIKELY BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH...SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
MONDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP COLLOCATED WITH AND
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MODELS BEGIN TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. SOME ARE HINTING AT SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT AND WASHING
IT OUT AND HAVING THE AREA QUICKLY RETURN TO S/SW WINDS BY TUESDAY.
WITH THESE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE VALLEY SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO
BRING LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR A HIGH ON
TUESDAY. HAVE NOT BIT OFF ON THIS SINCE I THINK MODELS MIGHT BE
OVERDOING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL RAIN TO PUT A BIT OF A DAMPER ON THE TEMPS FOR TUESDAY.
BUT WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TUESDAYS HIGHS ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTH.
WITH DECENT INFLUXES OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK THERE WILL BE A CHANCE RAIN THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN WHEREVER IT
DECIDES TO SET UP SHOP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE VICINITY AT THE END OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 47 63 46 / 0 10 30 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 44 60 44 / 0 10 30 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 60 47 59 44 / 0 10 50 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 41 58 41 / 0 10 30 60
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/ABM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1001 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH QUICK TO FALL JUST AFTER SUNSET...TEMPERATURES HAVE
SLOWED THEIR FALL IN THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AREAS UNDER CLOUD
COVER REMAINING NEARLY STEADY. ALSO...THE CLOUD DECK IS NOW
CREEPING NORTH AGAIN WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS...INCLUDING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING AREAS THAT HAVE
RECENTLY BECOME CLOUDY AND AREAS NORTH OF THERE WHERE THE CLOUD
DECK WILL REACH OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WARMED OVERNIGHT LOWS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
NEARLY STEADY. ALSO ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FOR OVERNIGHT.
FORECASTED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
82/JLD
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 547 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A COMPLICATED STRATUS FORECAST IS THE PRIMARY
AVIATION WEATHER CHALLENGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ALL OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH
CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. INFRARED SATELLITE
SHOWS A BROAD LAYER OF STRATUS OVER OKLAHOMA...ENDING RIGHT AT THE
RED RIVER. ANOTHER LAYER OF STRATUS EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM
PARIS TO CLEBURNE TO CISCO...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA. IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF STRATUS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN
PLACE. THIS SMALL WEDGE OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS NOT RESOLVED WELL
BY ANY MODEL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THE RAP SEEMS TO CAPTURE CURRENT
CONDITIONS MORE REALISTICALLY THAN OTHER AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE.
MOST STRATUS WAS FOUND IN THE 2-3000 FT AGL LAYER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS TO THE 950 TO 900 MB LAYER ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE RAP INDICATES THAT WINDS IN THIS
LAYER WILL TEND TO BE WESTERLY TONIGHT...INDICATING THAT THIS
SMALL WEDGE OF DRY AIR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY. THERE ARE NO FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SUPPORT THIS
SOLUTION AS ALL SOUNDINGS SHOW MVFR STRATUS OVER THE DFW AREA
RIGHT NOW AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...I MORE OR LESS IGNORED
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL DFW AREA
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THINK THAT MVFR STRATUS WILL RETURN TO ALL AREA TAF SITES AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON
TUESDAY. SOUTH FLOW IMPINGING UPON THE COOL LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT LIFT AND POSITIVE MOISTURE
ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD CAUSE CIGS TO LOWER FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EVEN THOUGH THIS IS AGAINST CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY FOR CIG TRENDS. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH MVFR CIGS WITH
A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ONCE MVFR CIGS ARE
IN PLACE...THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
FORECASTING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IS GOING TO BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE CLOUD COVER REMAINS TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IS NOW FREE OF CLOUDS WITH OVERCAST SKIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE CLOUD DECK FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF. WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ALREADY DECREASING AND WILL FALL TO
LESS THAN 5-10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. IN AREAS WHERE THE SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT. WHERE
THE SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN A
FAST FALL AND WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO DECREASE LOW TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. THIS UPDATE
WILL ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO COOL UNDER OVERCAST
SKIES. ADDITIONAL UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
TO ADJUST FOR CHANGING CLOUD TRENDS.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014/
THE LOW CLOUD BANK IS THE COMPLICATING FACTOR IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT AND SINCE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT REALLY HAVE THE
RESOLUTION TO HANDLE THE MOISTURE TRAPPED AT THE FRONTAL INVERSION
MODELS ARE NOT TRUSTWORTHY TONIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL STAY CLOUDY.
THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING IF NOT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S DUE TO WANING COLD ADVECTION AND THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF LOW CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER IN THE CLEAR AREAS...WINDS WILL BECOME
NEARLY CALM BY SUNRISE AND THE AIR IS VERY DRY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW 20S...IF NOT THE UPPER TEENS. THE
NORTHERN 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF BEING CLEAR
TONIGHT...BUT LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS FROM GRAHAM TO
ABILENE AND ACROSS OKLAHOMA THAT ARE NOT SHOWN BY VIRTUALLY ALL
GUIDANCE. THESE CLOUDS ARE SUPPOSED TO DISSIPATE DUE TO CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE...BUT USUALLY THEY ARE MORE STUBBORN THAN
EXPECTED. THUS THE FORECAST LOWS MAY END UP BEING TOO COOL OVER
NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD BANK IS LIKELY TO
BISECT THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING...BUT ANY SUBTLE WAVERING OF THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BRING THE CLEARING LINE MORE NORTH OR SOUTH
THUS AFFECTING LOW TEMPS GREATLY.
THE CLOUD BANK WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. WITHOUT MUCH SUNSHINE
TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY CHILLY...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN BY MIDDAY AND
THICK CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT LITTLE IF ANY COOLING TUESDAY
NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE
THE COLD LAYER WILL RESULT IN DECREASING CEILINGS...AND IF THE
SURFACE AIR IS MOIST ENOUGH...FOG AND DRIZZLE. SATURATION OF THE
LOWEST LEVELS DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH IS
PROBABLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DRIZZLE OR ADVECTION FOG OVER THE
AREA. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 50S NORTH AND MID 60S
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE RED
RIVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO HELP LIFT THIS AIR...THEREFORE ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND THE LOW POPS ARE CONFINED NEAR THE
FRONT. LOW TEMPS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE DAMPEN THE
DIURNAL RANGE.
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WITH TWO
DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST
WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AND DISCOUNTING THE FAST
OUTLIER GFS...THE SECOND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. WHEN THE
FIRST TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT WILL HELP INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
JUST A SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOL DOWN. HAVE TAPERED POPS DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS RIDGING AND DRYING
ALOFT OCCURS. THE FRONT WILL AGAIN HEAD BACK NORTH AND STALL
ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE THE SECOND SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER...AND WITH THE STALLED FRONT IN THE AREA
IT SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF RAIN. THE FRONT
WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH DRYING ALOFT AND
CLEARING SKIES NEXT WEEK.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 30 48 46 60 55 / 0 5 10 10 20
WACO, TX 36 49 47 64 56 / 0 5 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 33 48 43 56 54 / 5 5 10 20 30
DENTON, TX 25 48 44 58 52 / 0 5 10 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 28 47 44 57 54 / 0 5 10 10 20
DALLAS, TX 31 48 47 60 56 / 0 5 10 10 20
TERRELL, TX 34 48 45 60 55 / 5 5 10 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 39 49 46 62 56 / 5 5 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 37 49 47 65 56 / 0 5 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 29 50 45 63 49 / 0 5 5 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
69/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
756 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
.UPDATE...
FORECASTING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IS GOING TO BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE CLOUD COVER REMAINS TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IS NOW FREE OF CLOUDS WITH OVERCAST SKIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE CLOUD DECK FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF. WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ALREADY DECREASING AND WILL FALL TO
LESS THAN 5-10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. IN AREAS WHERE THE SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT. WHERE
THE SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN A
FAST FALL AND WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO DECREASE LOW TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. THIS UPDATE
WILL ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO COOL UNDER OVERCAST
SKIES. ADDITIONAL UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
TO ADJUST FOR CHANGING CLOUD TRENDS.
82/JLD
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 547 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A COMPLICATED STRATUS FORECAST IS THE PRIMARY
AVIATION WEATHER CHALLENGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ALL OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH
CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. INFRARED SATELLITE
SHOWS A BROAD LAYER OF STRATUS OVER OKLAHOMA...ENDING RIGHT AT THE
RED RIVER. ANOTHER LAYER OF STRATUS EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM
PARIS TO CLEBURNE TO CISCO...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA. IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF STRATUS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN
PLACE. THIS SMALL WEDGE OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS NOT RESOLVED WELL
BY ANY MODEL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THE RAP SEEMS TO CAPTURE CURRENT
CONDITIONS MORE REALISTICALLY THAN OTHER AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE.
MOST STRATUS WAS FOUND IN THE 2-3000 FT AGL LAYER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS TO THE 950 TO 900 MB LAYER ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE RAP INDICATES THAT WINDS IN THIS
LAYER WILL TEND TO BE WESTERLY TONIGHT...INDICATING THAT THIS
SMALL WEDGE OF DRY AIR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY. THERE ARE NO FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SUPPORT THIS
SOLUTION AS ALL SOUNDINGS SHOW MVFR STRATUS OVER THE DFW AREA
RIGHT NOW AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...I MORE OR LESS IGNORED
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL DFW AREA
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THINK THAT MVFR STRATUS WILL RETURN TO ALL AREA TAF SITES AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON
TUESDAY. SOUTH FLOW IMPINGING UPON THE COOL LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT LIFT AND POSITIVE MOISTURE
ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD CAUSE CIGS TO LOWER FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EVEN THOUGH THIS IS AGAINST CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY FOR CIG TRENDS. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH MVFR CIGS WITH
A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ONCE MVFR CIGS ARE
IN PLACE...THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014/
THE LOW CLOUD BANK IS THE COMPLICATING FACTOR IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT AND SINCE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT REALLY HAVE THE
RESOLUTION TO HANDLE THE MOISTURE TRAPPED AT THE FRONTAL INVERSION
MODELS ARE NOT TRUSTWORTHY TONIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL STAY CLOUDY.
THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING IF NOT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S DUE TO WANING COLD ADVECTION AND THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF LOW CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER IN THE CLEAR AREAS...WINDS WILL BECOME
NEARLY CALM BY SUNRISE AND THE AIR IS VERY DRY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW 20S...IF NOT THE UPPER TEENS. THE
NORTHERN 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF BEING CLEAR
TONIGHT...BUT LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS FROM GRAHAM TO
ABILENE AND ACROSS OKLAHOMA THAT ARE NOT SHOWN BY VIRTUALLY ALL
GUIDANCE. THESE CLOUDS ARE SUPPOSED TO DISSIPATE DUE TO CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE...BUT USUALLY THEY ARE MORE STUBBORN THAN
EXPECTED. THUS THE FORECAST LOWS MAY END UP BEING TOO COOL OVER
NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD BANK IS LIKELY TO
BISECT THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING...BUT ANY SUBTLE WAVERING OF THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BRING THE CLEARING LINE MORE NORTH OR SOUTH
THUS AFFECTING LOW TEMPS GREATLY.
THE CLOUD BANK WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. WITHOUT MUCH SUNSHINE
TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY CHILLY...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN BY MIDDAY AND
THICK CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT LITTLE IF ANY COOLING TUESDAY
NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE
THE COLD LAYER WILL RESULT IN DECREASING CEILINGS...AND IF THE
SURFACE AIR IS MOIST ENOUGH...FOG AND DRIZZLE. SATURATION OF THE
LOWEST LEVELS DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH IS
PROBABLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DRIZZLE OR ADVECTION FOG OVER THE
AREA. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 50S NORTH AND MID 60S
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE RED
RIVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO HELP LIFT THIS AIR...THEREFORE ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND THE LOW POPS ARE CONFINED NEAR THE
FRONT. LOW TEMPS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE DAMPEN THE
DIURNAL RANGE.
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WITH TWO
DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST
WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AND DISCOUNTING THE FAST
OUTLIER GFS...THE SECOND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. WHEN THE
FIRST TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT WILL HELP INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
JUST A SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOL DOWN. HAVE TAPERED POPS DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS RIDGING AND DRYING
ALOFT OCCURS. THE FRONT WILL AGAIN HEAD BACK NORTH AND STALL
ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE THE SECOND SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER...AND WITH THE STALLED FRONT IN THE AREA
IT SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF RAIN. THE FRONT
WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH DRYING ALOFT AND
CLEARING SKIES NEXT WEEK.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 21 48 46 60 55 / 0 5 10 10 20
WACO, TX 32 49 47 64 56 / 0 5 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 25 48 43 56 54 / 5 5 10 20 30
DENTON, TX 19 48 44 58 52 / 0 5 10 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 20 47 44 57 54 / 0 5 10 10 20
DALLAS, TX 22 48 47 60 56 / 0 5 10 10 20
TERRELL, TX 28 48 45 60 55 / 5 5 10 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 30 49 46 62 56 / 5 5 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 30 49 47 65 56 / 0 5 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 22 50 45 63 49 / 0 5 5 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
69/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
547 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A COMPLICATED STRATUS FORECAST IS THE PRIMARY
AVIATION WEATHER CHALLENGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ALL OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH
CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. INFRARED SATELLITE
SHOWS A BROAD LAYER OF STRATUS OVER OKLAHOMA...ENDING RIGHT AT THE
RED RIVER. ANOTHER LAYER OF STRATUS EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM
PARIS TO CLEBURNE TO CISCO...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA. IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF STRATUS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN
PLACE. THIS SMALL WEDGE OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS NOT RESOLVED WELL
BY ANY MODEL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THE RAP SEEMS TO CAPTURE CURRENT
CONDITIONS MORE REALISTICALLY THAN OTHER AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE.
MOST STRATUS WAS FOUND IN THE 2-3000 FT AGL LAYER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS TO THE 950 TO 900 MB LAYER ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE RAP INDICATES THAT WINDS IN THIS
LAYER WILL TEND TO BE WESTERLY TONIGHT...INDICATING THAT THIS
SMALL WEDGE OF DRY AIR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY. THERE ARE NO FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SUPPORT THIS
SOLUTION AS ALL SOUNDINGS SHOW MVFR STRATUS OVER THE DFW AREA
RIGHT NOW AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...I MORE OR LESS IGNORED
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL DFW AREA
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THINK THAT MVFR STRATUS WILL RETURN TO ALL AREA TAF SITES AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON
TUESDAY. SOUTH FLOW IMPINGING UPON THE COOL LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT LIFT AND POSITIVE MOISTURE
ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD CAUSE CIGS TO LOWER FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EVEN THOUGH THIS IS AGAINST CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY FOR CIG TRENDS. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH MVFR CIGS WITH
A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ONCE MVFR CIGS ARE
IN PLACE...THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014/
THE LOW CLOUD BANK IS THE COMPLICATING FACTOR IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT AND SINCE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT REALLY HAVE THE
RESOLUTION TO HANDLE THE MOISTURE TRAPPED AT THE FRONTAL INVERSION
MODELS ARE NOT TRUSTWORTHY TONIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL STAY CLOUDY.
THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING IF NOT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S DUE TO WANING COLD ADVECTION AND THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF LOW CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER IN THE CLEAR AREAS...WINDS WILL BECOME
NEARLY CALM BY SUNRISE AND THE AIR IS VERY DRY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW 20S...IF NOT THE UPPER TEENS. THE
NORTHERN 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF BEING CLEAR
TONIGHT...BUT LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS FROM GRAHAM TO
ABILENE AND ACROSS OKLAHOMA THAT ARE NOT SHOWN BY VIRTUALLY ALL
GUIDANCE. THESE CLOUDS ARE SUPPOSED TO DISSIPATE DUE TO CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE...BUT USUALLY THEY ARE MORE STUBBORN THAN
EXPECTED. THUS THE FORECAST LOWS MAY END UP BEING TOO COOL OVER
NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD BANK IS LIKELY TO
BISECT THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING...BUT ANY SUBTLE WAVERING OF THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BRING THE CLEARING LINE MORE NORTH OR SOUTH
THUS AFFECTING LOW TEMPS GREATLY.
THE CLOUD BANK WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. WITHOUT MUCH SUNSHINE
TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY CHILLY...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN BY MIDDAY AND
THICK CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT LITTLE IF ANY COOLING TUESDAY
NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE
THE COLD LAYER WILL RESULT IN DECREASING CEILINGS...AND IF THE
SURFACE AIR IS MOIST ENOUGH...FOG AND DRIZZLE. SATURATION OF THE
LOWEST LEVELS DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH IS
PROBABLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DRIZZLE OR ADVECTION FOG OVER THE
AREA. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 50S NORTH AND MID 60S
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE RED
RIVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO HELP LIFT THIS AIR...THEREFORE ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND THE LOW POPS ARE CONFINED NEAR THE
FRONT. LOW TEMPS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE DAMPEN THE
DIURNAL RANGE.
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WITH TWO
DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST
WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AND DISCOUNTING THE FAST
OUTLIER GFS...THE SECOND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. WHEN THE
FIRST TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT WILL HELP INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
JUST A SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOL DOWN. HAVE TAPERED POPS DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS RIDGING AND DRYING
ALOFT OCCURS. THE FRONT WILL AGAIN HEAD BACK NORTH AND STALL
ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE THE SECOND SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER...AND WITH THE STALLED FRONT IN THE AREA
IT SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF RAIN. THE FRONT
WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH DRYING ALOFT AND
CLEARING SKIES NEXT WEEK.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 30 48 46 60 55 / 0 5 10 10 20
WACO, TX 36 49 47 64 56 / 0 5 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 28 48 43 56 54 / 5 5 10 20 30
DENTON, TX 25 48 44 58 52 / 0 5 10 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 27 47 44 57 54 / 0 5 10 10 20
DALLAS, TX 32 48 47 60 56 / 0 5 10 10 20
TERRELL, TX 36 48 45 60 55 / 5 5 10 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 36 49 46 62 56 / 5 5 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 36 49 47 65 56 / 0 5 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 27 50 45 63 49 / 0 5 5 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
550 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
DRAWS CLOSER TO THE REGION...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
SO FAR TODAY. WIND CHILLS REMAIN BETWEEN 0 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. CLEAR SKIES EXIST ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THREE FOLD...AND INCLUDE MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...SMALL LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OVER N-C WISCONSIN FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND HEAD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT. THOUGH
THE COLDEST AIR WILL HAVE DEPARTED THE REGION TO THE EAST...CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE TUMBLING TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING. ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW LOW TO GO IN THESE
INSTANCES BECAUSE THE COLD SPOTS CAN QUICKLY FALL 20 DEGREES IN JUST
A FEW HOURS. UPSTREAM OBS THIS MORNING SHOWED PLENTY OF READINGS IN
THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE AND THATS A GOOD START FOR THE COLD SPOTS
OF N-C WISCONSIN. AS THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RAPIDLY TIGHTENS AND SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE LATE IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHEN CIRRUS ARRIVES.
ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE TO 950MB WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING STRATO-CU AND
FLURRIES TO MUCH OF EASTERN WISCONSIN. KEPT A SMALL ACCUMULATION
OVER THE DOOR...BUT THINKING ONLY A DUSTING AT BEST DUE TO THE VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. LOWS 0 TO 5 ABOVE OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKE
SHORE.
TUESDAY...AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES IMPACT EASTERN
WISCONSIN...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING OVERHEAD DURING
THE MORNING AHEAD OF A SHEARED SHORTWAVE. THINK THE CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE SHORE AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW DURING THE MORNING. DO
NOT SEE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES DUE TO A VERY DRY
LAYER BETWEEN 900-700MB. AS THE SHORTWAVE DRAWS CLOSER DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PROGGED SOUNDINGS OVER N-C WISCONSIN SHOW THAT DRY WEDGE
ERODING. WITH FORCING FROM DECENT MID-LEVEL FGEN...CAN SEE A LIGHT
SNOW CHANCE FOR THE NORTH BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES SOME. HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
WINTER IS TAKING A VACATION FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO
AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE AND FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE THIS EVG...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH MVFR STRATUS AND
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN. DO NOT
THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL PUSH VERY FAR INLAND...SINCE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND ESPECIALLY DOOR COUNTY. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD RETREAT BACK TOWARDS THE LAKE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO RHI/AUW/CWA LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A POLAR
FRONT MOVING ACROSS MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF THE FOX VALLEY. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PASS OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPS HAVE
HOVERED ALL DAY IN THE TEENS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS RESIDE UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THANKS TO A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY.
A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKE
WINNIPEG REGION...AND IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS ARCTIC FRONT...WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO AND WILL DRIVE
AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODELS PROJECT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXITING WITH THE POLAR FRONT. LAKE
CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE RETREATING TO THE UPPER PENINSULA AS WINDS
BACK MORE WESTERLY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT STRATO-CU COULD MOVE INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THIS
LOOKS OVERDONE BASED ON CLOUDS UPSTREAM. 925MB TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE -20S BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT BY 12Z MONDAY AND UPSTREAM OBS OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH. THIS MATCHES FAIRLY WELL
WITH THE AVERAGE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE...AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. COMBINED WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND...WIND CHILLS WILL
FALL BETWEEN 20 AND 25 BELOW OVER N-C WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...WILL
HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING...AND COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH
MID-MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD SEE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUBSIDE.
THOUGH TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MODIFYING...HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS UNDER PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
UNLIKE NOVEMBER...DECEMBER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
RATHER MILD AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST WEEK OR SO. THE UPPER FLOW IS
MOSTLY ZONAL WITH SURFACE HIGHS COMING FROM THE ROCKIES INSTEAD OF
THE ARCTIC. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOWS
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES OVER DOOR COUNTY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY WAS SOUTHERLY FLOW MIGHT BE
JUST COLD ENOUGH TO GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING MIGHT PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS BUT
IT DOESN/T LOOK TO BE VERY MUCH.
IT WILL START OUT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AFTER THAT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
AS A POLAR FRONT EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST...EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN BY MID-AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE
SLOWER OVER N-C WISCONSIN DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THINK MVFR CIGS AND LOWER VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN WIND DIRECTIONS BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION. THEREAFTER...THINK MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TOMORROW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ005-
010>012-018-019-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1130 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ATMOSPHERE IN GENERAL ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA IS QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS
THAN 1/2 INCH. IN FACT...UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH THEY ARE LESS THAN
1/10 OF AN INCH. ACCOMPANYING THE DRIER AIR HAS BEEN A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN MN HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH TEENS TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN MONTANA WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED. THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND NOW SITUATED FROM GRB TO DVN AND KANSAS CITY. A
BAND OF LOW STRATUS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT. THAT STRATUS HAS BEEN A FUNCTION OF TRAPPED
MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL INVERSION...REPRESENTED VERY WELL
ON THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING WHERE THE 850MB TEMP WAS 13C AND 925MB
TEMP WAS -2C. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MORESO OVER MONTANA AND NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE THE INVERSION GOES AWAY...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS -20C
AND BELOW.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PROGGED
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY SITTING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY...EXPECTING TO SEE THE ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
MEANS A CONTINUOUS FALL OF TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
THE FALL SLOWED JUST SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FROM THE AID
OF THE SUN. REGARDING SUNSHINE...CLOUD EVOLUTION TODAY IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. THERES A FIGHT GOING ON BETWEEN THE SATURATION ALONG THE
COLD FRONTAL INVERSION AND SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. THIS IS EVIDENT
NICELY ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 IN MN WHERE THERE ARE BANDS OF
CLEARING AND STRATUS. TRIED THE BEST TO PLAY THIS IN THE FORECAST
BUT MORE UPDATES OF SKY COVER IS LIKELY NEEDED. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES COME OUT OF THE CLOUDS SINCE THE
CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE CONTAINED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE OMEGA PROGGED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO MENTION THE FLURRIES. CLEARING OF THE
SKIES LOOKS MORE LIKELY TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS OF THE MID/HIGH LEVEL VARIETY MAY GET STUCK ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE FALL...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR
READINGS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BY SUNSET...COLDEST IN
SOUTHEAST MN AND WARMEST IN FAR SOUTHWEST WI. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS HERE TOO...DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN RIVER VALLEY AREAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE. THESE LOWS SEEM REASONABLE BASED
ON WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE DAKOTAS NOW.
WIND CHILLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A HEADLINE ISSUE TODAY...THOUGH
10 TO 20 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD DROP THE WIND
CHILL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY SUNSET.
FOR TONIGHT...HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT 5 TO 15 MPH BREEZE COMBINED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS DO DROP WIND CHILLS TO THE ADVISORY
THRESHOLD OF -20F IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND CENTRAL WI. GIVEN
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BOTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...HAVE ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST TAYLOR COUNTY. ALSO CONSIDERED
DODGE...OLMSTED AND MOWER...BUT TO MAINTAIN A CLEANER HAZARD MAP
WITH MPXS COLDER CRITERIA OF -25 AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
MPX...HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING FOR THESE COUNTIES. IF IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK JUST AS COLD OR COLDER...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY FOR DODGE...OLMSTED AND MOWER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST...MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING IS BY FAR THE
COLDEST PART. DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...FAVORED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH...925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED AT A CHILLY -16C SOUTH TO -20C NORTH
AT 18Z MONDAY. THESE READINGS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO. THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
AREA CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA THEN SLIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT
00Z TUESDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER SUNSET. A DROP
OF 10 DEGREES BETWEEN 21Z MON AND 00Z TUE SUGGESTED BY THE 30.00Z
REGIONAL CANADIAN IS EASILY PLAUSIBLE. THE AMOUNT OF DROP IS
IMPORTANT AS THE LOW TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BY 12Z TUESDAY. THAT
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE A RETURN FLOW BREEZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB. ITS POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN RUN
INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY ISSUES AGAIN AS THE BREEZE COMBINES WITH
THE INITIALLY COLD READINGS.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS IS ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DRIVING
THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...CONTINUED
RETURN FLOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT WILL HELP PUSH 925MB TEMPS BACK UP TO
AS MUCH AS -4 TO -6C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP BRING
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS. A FEW SPOTS SUCH AS RIVER
VALLEYS MAY EVEN APPROACH FREEZING. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. MAYBE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FALLS NORTH OF I-94 WITH ITS
PASSAGE OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. SOME COLDER AIR
FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR STAYS
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO -5 TO -9C SO
READINGS ON WEDNESDAY MAY ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TUESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE QUASI-
ZONAL...FAVORING A FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR ACROSS THE U.S. AND THUS
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN FACT...BY THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD BE BACK UP
ABOVE NORMAL AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO OR ABOVE 0C. THERE IS ONE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODELS HAVE OSCILLATED BACK AND FORTH ON WHETHER THIS SHORTWAVE CAN
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. 30.00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DRIER
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN STILL DRIVES SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH. TEND TO
BELIEVE A DRIER SOLUTION WILL PAN OUT GIVEN A SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE...YIELDING
DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
STREAK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. MOSTLY IN THE 10-15 KFT
RANGE. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP NORTHWEST WINDS
BLUSTERY/GUSTY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...MOSTLY 14-20 KTS
SUSTAINED. THEY/LL STAY UP AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH SAGGY
GRADIENT RESULTING IN THE DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
515 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ATMOSPHERE IN GENERAL ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA IS QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS
THAN 1/2 INCH. IN FACT...UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH THEY ARE LESS THAN
1/10 OF AN INCH. ACCOMPANYING THE DRIER AIR HAS BEEN A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN MN HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH TEENS TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN MONTANA WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED. THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND NOW SITUATED FROM GRB TO DVN AND KANSAS CITY. A
BAND OF LOW STRATUS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT. THAT STRATUS HAS BEEN A FUNCTION OF TRAPPED
MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL INVERSION...REPRESENTED VERY WELL
ON THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING WHERE THE 850MB TEMP WAS 13C AND 925MB
TEMP WAS -2C. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MORESO OVER MONTANA AND NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE THE INVERSION GOES AWAY...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS -20C
AND BELOW.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PROGGED
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY SITTING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY...EXPECTING TO SEE THE ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
MEANS A CONTINUOUS FALL OF TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
THE FALL SLOWED JUST SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FROM THE AID
OF THE SUN. REGARDING SUNSHINE...CLOUD EVOLUTION TODAY IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. THERES A FIGHT GOING ON BETWEEN THE SATURATION ALONG THE
COLD FRONTAL INVERSION AND SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. THIS IS EVIDENT
NICELY ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 IN MN WHERE THERE ARE BANDS OF
CLEARING AND STRATUS. TRIED THE BEST TO PLAY THIS IN THE FORECAST
BUT MORE UPDATES OF SKY COVER IS LIKELY NEEDED. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES COME OUT OF THE CLOUDS SINCE THE
CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE CONTAINED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE OMEGA PROGGED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO MENTION THE FLURRIES. CLEARING OF THE
SKIES LOOKS MORE LIKELY TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS OF THE MID/HIGH LEVEL VARIETY MAY GET STUCK ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE FALL...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR
READINGS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BY SUNSET...COLDEST IN
SOUTHEAST MN AND WARMEST IN FAR SOUTHWEST WI. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS HERE TOO...DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN RIVER VALLEY AREAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE. THESE LOWS SEEM REASONABLE BASED
ON WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE DAKOTAS NOW.
WIND CHILLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A HEADLINE ISSUE TODAY...THOUGH
10 TO 20 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD DROP THE WIND
CHILL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY SUNSET.
FOR TONIGHT...HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT 5 TO 15 MPH BREEZE COMBINED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS DO DROP WIND CHILLS TO THE ADVISORY
THRESHOLD OF -20F IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND CENTRAL WI. GIVEN
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BOTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...HAVE ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST TAYLOR COUNTY. ALSO CONSIDERED
DODGE...OLMSTED AND MOWER...BUT TO MAINTAIN A CLEANER HAZARD MAP
WITH MPXS COLDER CRITERIA OF -25 AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
MPX...HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING FOR THESE COUNTIES. IF IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK JUST AS COLD OR COLDER...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY FOR DODGE...OLMSTED AND MOWER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST...MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING IS BY FAR THE
COLDEST PART. DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...FAVORED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH...925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED AT A CHILLY -16C SOUTH TO -20C NORTH
AT 18Z MONDAY. THESE READINGS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO. THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
AREA CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA THEN SLIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT
00Z TUESDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER SUNSET. A DROP
OF 10 DEGREES BETWEEN 21Z MON AND 00Z TUE SUGGESTED BY THE 30.00Z
REGIONAL CANADIAN IS EASILY PLAUSIBLE. THE AMOUNT OF DROP IS
IMPORTANT AS THE LOW TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BY 12Z TUESDAY. THAT
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE A RETURN FLOW BREEZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB. ITS POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN RUN
INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY ISSUES AGAIN AS THE BREEZE COMBINES WITH
THE INITIALLY COLD READINGS.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS IS ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DRIVING
THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...CONTINUED
RETURN FLOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT WILL HELP PUSH 925MB TEMPS BACK UP TO
AS MUCH AS -4 TO -6C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP BRING
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS. A FEW SPOTS SUCH AS RIVER
VALLEYS MAY EVEN APPROACH FREEZING. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. MAYBE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FALLS NORTH OF I-94 WITH ITS
PASSAGE OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. SOME COLDER AIR
FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR STAYS
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO -5 TO -9C SO
READINGS ON WEDNESDAY MAY ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TUESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE QUASI-
ZONAL...FAVORING A FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR ACROSS THE U.S. AND THUS
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN FACT...BY THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD BE BACK UP
ABOVE NORMAL AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO OR ABOVE 0C. THERE IS ONE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODELS HAVE OSCILLATED BACK AND FORTH ON WHETHER THIS SHORTWAVE CAN
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. 30.00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DRIER
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN STILL DRIVES SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH. TEND TO
BELIEVE A DRIER SOLUTION WILL PAN OUT GIVEN A SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE...YIELDING
DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
SUBSIDENCE IN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION HAS ALREADY
CLEARED THE THE POST-FRONTAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS OUT OF THE KRST
AREA. DISTANCE SPEED TOOL HAS THE MVFR CLOUDS/VSBYS MOVING OUT OF
THE KLSE AREA AROUND 14Z. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN THEN LOOK TO RESULT IN FEW/SCT MVFR CLOUDS THRU THE
DAY WITH SCT-BKN 10K-15K FT CLOUDS ABOVE THAT. NORTHWEST WIND 12-
15KT G20-24KTS TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...THEN IN THE 10-13KT
RANGE TONIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
318 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ATMOSPHERE IN GENERAL ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA IS QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS
THAN 1/2 INCH. IN FACT...UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH THEY ARE LESS THAN
1/10 OF AN INCH. ACCOMPANYING THE DRIER AIR HAS BEEN A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN MN HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH TEENS TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN MONTANA WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED. THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND NOW SITUATED FROM GRB TO DVN AND KANSAS CITY. A
BAND OF LOW STRATUS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT. THAT STRATUS HAS BEEN A FUNCTION OF TRAPPED
MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL INVERSION...REPRESENTED VERY WELL
ON THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING WHERE THE 850MB TEMP WAS 13C AND 925MB
TEMP WAS -2C. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MORESO OVER MONTANA AND NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE THE INVERSION GOES AWAY...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS -20C
AND BELOW.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PROGGED
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY SITTING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY...EXPECTING TO SEE THE ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
MEANS A CONTINUOUS FALL OF TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
THE FALL SLOWED JUST SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FROM THE AID
OF THE SUN. REGARDING SUNSHINE...CLOUD EVOLUTION TODAY IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. THERES A FIGHT GOING ON BETWEEN THE SATURATION ALONG THE
COLD FRONTAL INVERSION AND SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. THIS IS EVIDENT
NICELY ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 IN MN WHERE THERE ARE BANDS OF
CLEARING AND STRATUS. TRIED THE BEST TO PLAY THIS IN THE FORECAST
BUT MORE UPDATES OF SKY COVER IS LIKELY NEEDED. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES COME OUT OF THE CLOUDS SINCE THE
CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE CONTAINED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE OMEGA PROGGED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO MENTION THE FLURRIES. CLEARING OF THE
SKIES LOOKS MORE LIKELY TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS OF THE MID/HIGH LEVEL VARIETY MAY GET STUCK ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE FALL...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR
READINGS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BY SUNSET...COLDEST IN
SOUTHEAST MN AND WARMEST IN FAR SOUTHWEST WI. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS HERE TOO...DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN RIVER VALLEY AREAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE. THESE LOWS SEEM REASONABLE BASED
ON WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE DAKOTAS NOW.
WIND CHILLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A HEADLINE ISSUE TODAY...THOUGH
10 TO 20 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD DROP THE WIND
CHILL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY SUNSET.
FOR TONIGHT...HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT 5 TO 15 MPH BREEZE COMBINED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS DO DROP WIND CHILLS TO THE ADVISORY
THRESHOLD OF -20F IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND CENTRAL WI. GIVEN
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BOTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...HAVE ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST TAYLOR COUNTY. ALSO CONSIDERED
DODGE...OLMSTED AND MOWER...BUT TO MAINTAIN A CLEANER HAZARD MAP
WITH MPXS COLDER CRITERIA OF -25 AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
MPX...HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING FOR THESE COUNTIES. IF IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK JUST AS COLD OR COLDER...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY FOR DODGE...OLMSTED AND MOWER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST...MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING IS BY FAR THE
COLDEST PART. DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...FAVORED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH...925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED AT A CHILLY -16C SOUTH TO -20C NORTH
AT 18Z MONDAY. THESE READINGS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO. THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
AREA CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA THEN SLIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT
00Z TUESDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER SUNSET. A DROP
OF 10 DEGREES BETWEEN 21Z MON AND 00Z TUE SUGGESTED BY THE 30.00Z
REGIONAL CANADIAN IS EASILY PLAUSIBLE. THE AMOUNT OF DROP IS
IMPORTANT AS THE LOW TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BY 12Z TUESDAY. THAT
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE A RETURN FLOW BREEZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB. ITS POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN RUN
INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY ISSUES AGAIN AS THE BREEZE COMBINES WITH
THE INITIALLY COLD READINGS.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS IS ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DRIVING
THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...CONTINUED
RETURN FLOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT WILL HELP PUSH 925MB TEMPS BACK UP TO
AS MUCH AS -4 TO -6C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP BRING
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS. A FEW SPOTS SUCH AS RIVER
VALLEYS MAY EVEN APPROACH FREEZING. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. MAYBE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FALLS NORTH OF I-94 WITH ITS
PASSAGE OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. SOME COLDER AIR
FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR STAYS
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO -5 TO -9C SO
READINGS ON WEDNESDAY MAY ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TUESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE QUASI-
ZONAL...FAVORING A FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR ACROSS THE U.S. AND THUS
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN FACT...BY THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD BE BACK UP
ABOVE NORMAL AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO OR ABOVE 0C. THERE IS ONE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODELS HAVE OSCILLATED BACK AND FORTH ON WHETHER THIS SHORTWAVE CAN
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. 30.00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DRIER
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN STILL DRIVES SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH. TEND TO
BELIEVE A DRIER SOLUTION WILL PAN OUT GIVEN A SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE...YIELDING
DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND IS NOW EAST
OF BOTH TAF SITES. THE DRIER AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH HAS
ALLOWED THE TEMPERATURE TO FALL CLOSE TO THE DEW POINT AND FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP. THE DRIER AIR WAS WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND ONCE IT SPREADS IN...THE FOG PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATES. HAVE
TRIED TO SHOW A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS FOR BOTH SITES UNTIL THE DRIER MOVES IN AND ALLOWS THE
VISIBILITY TO RETURN TO VFR WITH MVFR CEILINGS. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUES TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING. THE 30.03Z RAP REMAINS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN SPREADING THIS
CLEARING INTO BOTH TAF SITES EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WHILE THE 30.00Z NAM STILL WANTS TO HOLD ONTO THE LOW
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THROUGH ALL OF SUNDAY. FOR NOW...WILL STAY
WITH THE PREVIOUS TRENDS OF SCATTERING OUT THE CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. STILL EXPECT TO HAVE GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT TO ALLOW GUSTS TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1119 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
AT 3 PM...WARM AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MINNESOTA TO VALENTINE NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
50S AND 60S IN WESTERN IOWA. CLOSER TO HOME...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 30S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND IN THE 40S AND 50S SOUTH OF
THIS INTERSTATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE 925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ANOTHER 2 TO 4C INTO THE 7 TO
14C RANGE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 200 PERCENT TOO HIGH WITH
IT SNOW DEPTH...AND THIS IS CAUSING HAVOC WITH THEIR TEMPERATURES.
OTHER MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES TOO DUE TO THE SNOW PACK. MIXING
DOWN THE AIR MASS FROM 925 MB INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES COULD
POTENTIALLY WARM INTO THE MID50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S NEAR
INTERSTATE 90 AND 94. THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON ON HOW FAST THE
SNOW MELTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...PLAN ON PLAYING IT
CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TEMPERATURES.
FOR TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BY MIDNIGHT...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO MASON CITY IOWA...AND FROM
GREEN BAY TO KANSAS CITY BY 6 AM. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW /GENERALLY LESS THAN 50 TO 75 MB
UNDER 875 MB/ ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. THE NAM
SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OMEGA CO-LOCATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE FOR SOME SNOW FLURRIES. MEANWHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SAY THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS BEING A
NEW DEVELOPMENT AND ONLY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT MOST...SO DECIDED
TO JUST KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. AS FAR AS HOW COLD IT WILL BE BY
MORNING...THE GEM CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDEST WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND FROM 10
TO 20 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS LOW
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 20S. WITH SUCH DISCREPANCIES...JUST
STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM 15 TO 30.
ON SUNDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 20 ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND 5 TO 15 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL
VALUES FROM 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE AIR
MASS PARCHED...NOT EXPECTING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THIS FRONT.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES FROM -5 TO 10 AND NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE -20
TO -25 DEGREE RANGE. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS /-20 TO -25F/ WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
AREAS.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON HOW FAST THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. AS
A RESULT...THERE ARE QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOCATED ON THIS NIGHT. WITH SUCH
DIFFERENCES...STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS HAS LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM -5 T0 -10F. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CAUSE WIND
WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL OF 15 TO 25 BELOW. THIS MAY BE ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT AS COLD AS
THE PREVIOUS ONES. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND OMEGA BELOW 850 MB FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW
NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29. DUE TO THIS ADDED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE FORECAST.
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON
THE INTERACTION OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS LOOKS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING THE
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE THE GEM AND
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE PREVIOUS GFS WITH MORE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THESE 2 WAVES AND IT GENERATES LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND IS NOW EAST
OF BOTH TAF SITES. THE DRIER AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH HAS
ALLOWED THE TEMPERATURE TO FALL CLOSE TO THE DEW POINT AND FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP. THE DRIER AIR WAS WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND ONCE IT SPREADS IN...THE FOG PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATES. HAVE
TRIED TO SHOW A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS FOR BOTH SITES UNTIL THE DRIER MOVES IN AND ALLOWS THE
VISIBILITY TO RETURN TO VFR WITH MVFR CEILINGS. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUES TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING. THE 30.03Z RAP REMAINS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN SPREADING THIS
CLEARING INTO BOTH TAF SITES EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WHILE THE 30.00Z NAM STILL WANTS TO HOLD ONTO THE LOW
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THROUGH ALL OF SUNDAY. FOR NOW...WILL STAY
WITH THE PREVIOUS TRENDS OF SCATTERING OUT THE CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. STILL EXPECT TO HAVE GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT TO ALLOW GUSTS TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1046 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2014
WINDS HAVE REALLY STARTED TO COME DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS
SHOW THIS COLD FRONT NOW DRAPED FROM NORTHERN PLATTE COUNTY AND
POINTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. THE WIND THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH EVEN
MORE AS THIS WIND SHIFT OCCURS. COULD STAY A LITTLE BREEZY WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THIS FRONT APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO BE ABLE TO
GET OVER THE TERRAIN...BUT WINDS ALOFT AND LLVL CAG-CPR GRADIENTS
ARE UNSUPPORTIVE. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE.
LIGHT SNOW IS LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD SHORTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. LUSK IS FINALLY
REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AS OF THIS WRITING. EXPECT SNOW WILL SPREAD
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z SUN AS LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT STRENGTHENS IN THE RRQ OF
THE UPPER JET NOW OVER CENTRAL WY. HRRR APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH
THAT THINKING AS WELL. STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING CRAZY WITH
RESPECT TO ACCUMULATIONS. MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW OVER EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS INTERACTING WITH THE PINE
RIDGE RESULTING IN VERY LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...SO ADDED MENTION OF FOG THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2014
ONGOING FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE TIGHT PREFRONTAL
LLVL GRADIENTS AND RESULTANT STRONG SFC WINDS. LLVL KCAG-KCPR
GRADIENTS HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 60-70 METER RANGE
THRU AT LEAST 06Z. MIXING HAS BEEN UNINHIBITED TODAY TOO...AS
THE STANDING LEE CLOUD HAS SHIFTED SUFFICIENTLY EAST TO ALLOW FULL
INSOLATION. WINDS HAVE RESPONDED...REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA AT
MOST LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY PEAK GUSTS OF
60 TO 65 MPH HAVING BEEN OBSERVED ALONG LEEWARD SLOPES TO AS FAR
EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. AREAS AROUND ARLINGTON HAVE STRUGGLED
SOMEWHAT AS THE BEST AXIS OF SUBSIDENCE IS JUST EAST. SEE THESE
WINDS CONTINUING AT LEAST IN PART THRU A CHUNK OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BREAKS UP THE GRADIENT. SPEAKING
OF THE COLD FRONT...ITS LOOKING IMPRESSIVE ON 21Z SFC ANALYSIS
ALREADY SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ON THE DOORSTEP OF NEWCASTLE. TO
ILLUSTRATE THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS FELL FROM 55F TO 16F
AT GILLETTE OVER THE SPAN OF 2 HOURS WITH FROPA. MODELS ARE ALL
SIMILAR WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING MOVING IT INTO THE FAR NORTH EARLY
THIS EVENING AND THRU THE REST OF CWA THRU SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAYS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
FALLING TEMPS THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. SNOW CHANCES WILL LAG
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED MOVING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AREAS AROUND DOUGLAS WILL SEE SNOW
CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOCATIONS FROM RAWLINS TO LARAMIE TO
CHEYENNE HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PERHAPS 1-2 INCHES ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES AND PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH
FROM CHEYENNE TO KIMBALL. SNOWY RANGE/SIERRA MADRES WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT THOSE SHOULD ONLY FALL IN THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE FRONT RETREATS QUICKLY TO
THE EAST AND FLOW REMAINS ZONAL. AFTER A CLOUDY SUNDAY...EXPECT
CLOUDS TO DECREASE FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD ON
MONDAY THO...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY REMAINING IN THE 30S. LLVL
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT SHAPING UP FOR WIND PRONE AREAS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2014
TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS.
WEDNESDAY...TRANSITIONS TO A MORE MOIST UNSETTLED PATTERN AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO WEST SOUTHWEST...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT APPROACHING OUR COUNTIES AND WITH THE LOW
AND MID LEVELS MOISTENING. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...IT APPEARS
THAT SCATTERED TO LIKELY...MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS...WILL DEVELOP DUE TO
OROGRAPHICS ALONG AND WEST OF A LARAMIE TO DOUGLAS LINE...AND
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES OF SOUTHERN
CARBON COUNTY.
THURSDAY...DRIER DAY ON TAP AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WANES AND
WITH NO OBVIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT AFFECTING OUR
COUNTIES...THOUGH MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE RANGE OF SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY...DRY ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTION IS LOW AS THE 29/12Z GFS
INDICATES SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR COUNTIES WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM UTAH...WHILE THE 29/12Z ECMWF HAS A
WELL DEVELOPED RIDGE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL WYOMING. IN EITHER
CASE...MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS DRY. WILL BLEND
WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES FOR TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE
MODELS SHOW SOME AGREEMENT.
SATURDAY...MODELS START TO AGREE MORE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR COUNTIES. LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S AND 40S...NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS
AND LOCALIZED FOG AT KSNY/KBFF/KAIA/KCDR THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN PCPN. BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2014
STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND IMMEDIATE EASTERN PLAINS LOCATION THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT WILL BEEN IN THE TEENS. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL END TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY AND USHERING IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...CAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
332 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
TUESDAY MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP NEAR THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAIN AREA OF RAIN HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
LOWS WEIGHED TOWARDS NAM AND HRRR 2-M TEMPERATURES WHICH
TYPICALLY FAIR BETTER IN THESE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
SCENARIOS THAN MOS. GENERALLY AROUND FREEZING NYC METRO AND 20S
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT AROUND 30 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID 30S
NEAR KMTP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES
TUESDAY...WHICH QUICKLY VEERS WINDS TO EAST AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORMS OFF THE COAST OF NORFOLK. ALL NWP APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING IN BEFORE SUNSET.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A BRIEF MIX AT THE START FOR THE COAST
WITH SNOW INLAND. THE SOUTHEAST VEERING FLOW QUICKLY WARMS TEMPS
ALOFT RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX INLAND AS WELL BY 8 PM OR SO. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY HOLD AT THE SURFACE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT OR FEW HOURS AFTER SUCH THAT FREEZING RAIN BECOMES A
TRAVEL PROBLEM. WE DO EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE INTERIOR TO
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY SUNRISE.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE INTERIOR.
BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE WILL ISSUE
THESE ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT (ASSUMING THE FORECAST DOES NOT
CHANGE).
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR IS LESS THAN AN INCH AND
PROBABILISTIC SNOW DATA HAS BEEN ISSUED. ICE ACCUMULATION OF LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER JET WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.
ON WED...THE CWA WILL ENTER THE WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS TO THE N. THIS WILL CUT OFF THE STEADY RAIN...BUT
ALLOW FOR SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DZ TO DEVELOP. SOME
PATCHY FG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS USHERS THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY OFFSHORE...AND CLEARS OUT THE SKIES FOR THU. TEMPS ON THU
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BY A FEW DEGREES.
THE CWA IS THEN IN THE BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING 1040S
HIGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING
SOME WAA AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS WILL KEEP IT MAINLY
CLOUDY FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.
ALL AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX TO START OUT THE
PRECIPITATION FRI...THEN THE COASTS AND CITY APPEAR TO TRANSITION
TO MAINLY ALL RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE INTERIOR
WILL STRUGGLE BOTH TO WARM INITIALLY...AND THEREAFTER STAY ABOVE
FREEZING. AS A RESULT...A WINTRY MIX HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN MAY END WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
AND THEN FINALLY TRACKING OUT TO SEA. THE ROUGH TIMING FOR THIS IS
MON...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN MORE RAIN AT THE COASTS AND A MIX AGAIN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BECAUSE THIS SETUP WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
COOLING ALOFT...THE INTERIOR WOULD RUN THE THREAT FOR A CHANGEOVER
TO ALL SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT EVENT THIS AFTERNOON***
VFR AND NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 KT. GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH MAY BE MORE
OCNL...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF NYC.
A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SN/PL AT THE COAST TO START...CHANGING
TO PLAIN RAIN IN THE EARLY EVE. KSWF SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF -SN
AN IS THE ONLY TERMINAL EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY ACCUMULATION...LESS
THAN AN INCH BEFORE MIXING WITH PL AND FZRA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EVENING...AND THEN PLAIN RAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR ONCE THE SNOW STARTS...WITH A MORE GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO MVFR THEN IFR AT THE COAST WITH THE WINTRY MIX. TIMING
OF PCPN...CHANGEOVER OF P-TYPES AND IFR CONDS MAY BE A FEW HOURS OFF.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND
P-TYPE CHANGES.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND
P-TYPE CHANGES.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND
P-TYPE CHANGES.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND
P-TYPE CHANGES.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND
P-TYPE CHANGES.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND
P-TYPE CHANGES.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN.
.WED...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -RA/DZ/FG IN THE MORNING. IMPROVING
CONDS LATE.
.THU...VFR.
.FRI...LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR.
.SAT...CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN FOR INTERIOR IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE OCEAN ZONES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KT.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUND...NEW YORK
HARBOR...SOUTH SHORE BAYS...AND PECONIC AND GARDINER BAYS HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. SCA REMAIN OVER THE OCEAN ZONES.
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...APPEARS WIND GUSTS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS
ON NON-OCEAN WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO CURRENT HEADLINES APPEAR
ON TRACK.
SCA CONDITION REMAIN ON THE WATERS ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY
NEED EXTENDING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WED. SCA SPEEDS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ERN WATERS. THE WINDS SHIFT WITH THE FRONT
WED NIGHT...THEN DECREASE BELOW SCA LEVELS THU. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TIL SUN.
THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS...PARTICULARLY ON THE OCEAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
QPF LATE DAY TUE INTO WED MORNING SHOULD BE ABOUT A THIRD
OF AN INCH. A WINTRY MIX OVER THE INTERIOR IS FORECAST AND NO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1215 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
TUESDAY MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP NEAR THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAIN AREA OF RAIN HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
LOWS WEIGHED TOWARDS NAM AND HRRR 2-M TEMPERATURES WHICH
TYPICALLY FAIR BETTER IN THESE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
SCENARIOS THAN MOS. GENERALLY AROUND FREEZING NYC METRO AND 20S
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT AROUND 30 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID 30S
NEAR KMTP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES
TUESDAY...WHICH QUICKLY VEERS WINDS TO EAST AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORMS OFF THE COAST OF NORFOLK. ALL NWP APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING IN BEFORE SUNSET.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A BRIEF MIX AT THE START FOR THE COAST
WITH SNOW INLAND. THE SOUTHEAST VEERING FLOW QUICKLY WARMS TEMPS
ALOFT RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX INLAND AS WELL BY 8 PM OR SO. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY HOLD AT THE SURFACE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT OR FEW HOURS AFTER SUCH THAT FREEZING RAIN BECOMES A
TRAVEL PROBLEM. WE DO EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE INTERIOR TO
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY SUNRISE.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE INTERIOR.
BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE WILL ISSUE
THESE ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT (ASSUMING THE FORECAST DOES NOT
CHANGE).
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR IS LESS THAN AN INCH AND
PROBABILISTIC SNOW DATA HAS BEEN ISSUED. ICE ACCUMULATION OF LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER JET WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.
ON WED...THE CWA WILL ENTER THE WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS TO THE N. THIS WILL CUT OFF THE STEADY RAIN...BUT
ALLOW FOR SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DZ TO DEVELOP. SOME
PATCHY FG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS USHERS THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY OFFSHORE...AND CLEARS OUT THE SKIES FOR THU. TEMPS ON THU
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BY A FEW DEGREES.
THE CWA IS THEN IN THE BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING 1040S
HIGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING
SOME WAA AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS WILL KEEP IT MAINLY
CLOUDY FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.
ALL AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX TO START OUT THE
PRECIPITATION FRI...THEN THE COASTS AND CITY APPEAR TO TRANSITION
TO MAINLY ALL RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE INTERIOR
WILL STRUGGLE BOTH TO WARM INITIALLY...AND THEREAFTER STAY ABOVE
FREEZING. AS A RESULT...A WINTRY MIX HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN MAY END WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
AND THEN FINALLY TRACKING OUT TO SEA. THE ROUGH TIMING FOR THIS IS
MON...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN MORE RAIN AT THE COASTS AND A MIX AGAIN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BECAUSE THIS SETUP WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
COOLING ALOFT...THE INTERIOR WOULD RUN THE THREAT FOR A CHANGEOVER
TO ALL SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT EVENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING***
NLY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS HAVE INCREASED A BIT IN
FREQUENCY THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...BUT STILL NOT CONVINCED THEY WILL
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE 06Z TAFS
UNTIL MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. GUSTS IN
THE UPPER TEENS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFT SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH MAY
BE MORE OCNL...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF NYC.
A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING
THE AFTN. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SN/PL AT THE COAST TO START...CHANGING
TO PLAIN RAIN IN THE EARLY EVE. KSWF SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF
-SN AN IS THE ONLY TERMINAL EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY
ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN AN INCH BEFORE MIXING WITH PL
AND FZRA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVE...AND THEN PLAIN RAIN
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. CONDS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR ONCE THE
SNOW STARTS...WITH A MORE GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR THEN IFR AT
THE COAST WITH THE WINTRY MIX. TIMING OF PCPN...CHANGEOVER OF
P-TYPES AND IFR CONDS MAY BE A FEW HOURS OFF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN.
.WED...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -RA/DZ/FG IN THE MORNING. IMPROVING
CONDS LATE.
.THU...VFR.
.FRI...LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR.
.SAT...CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN FOR INTERIOR IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE OCEAN ZONES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KT.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUND...NEW YORK
HARBOR...SOUTH SHORE BAYS...AND PECONIC AND GARDINER BAYS HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. SCA REMAIN OVER THE OCEAN ZONES.
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...APPEARS WIND GUSTS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS
ON NON-OCEAN WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO CURRENT HEADLINES APPEAR
ON TRACK.
SCA CONDITION REMAIN ON THE WATERS ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY
NEED EXTENDING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WED. SCA SPEEDS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ERN WATERS. THE WINDS SHIFT WITH THE FRONT
WED NIGHT...THEN DECREASE BELOW SCA LEVELS THU. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TIL SUN.
THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS...PARTICULARLY ON THE OCEAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
QPF LATE DAY TUE INTO WED MORNING SHOULD BE ABOUT A THIRD
OF AN INCH. A WINTRY MIX OVER THE INTERIOR IS FORECAST AND NO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
421 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...A COASTAL TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. SINCE
MIDNIGHT THERE HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF STRATOCU ACROSS SE
SOUTH CAROLINA WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF STRATOCU ACROSS SE GEORGIA.
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE REGION AND AREAS THAT MANAGE TO REMAIN TOTALLY CLEAR STILL
HAVE A RISK FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS FORMATION. AT THE CURRENT
TIME...THE REGION WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR FOG APPEARS TO BE TO THE
SOUTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA BUT EVEN THERE...CLOUDS REMAIN A QUESTION
MARK. WE HAVE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST TO START THE
DAY BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTATION FOR WIDESPREAD FOG THIS MORNING. A
FEW SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OFFSHORE BUT UNLIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
PER COASTAL PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AROUND DAYBREAK
WILL TEND TO HANGUP ACROSS NC/SC STATE LINE LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION BREAKS AFTER MID
MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE VERY WARM LAYERS
ATOP THIS INVERSION AND A CLEAN BACKDOOR FROPA IS UNLIKELY TODAY
ACROSS SE AND CENTRAL COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. CLOUDS...TEMPS...AND
EVEN SPOTTY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TODAY THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTS.
ACROSS SE SOUTH CAROLINA...ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG A SHALLOW SURFACE
ONGOING ALONG OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES EARLY IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
INTO NE SOUTH CAROLINA LEAVING SOME POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AT TIMES FROM CHARLESTON TO BEAUFORT BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
PATTERN EVOLUTION LATER THIS MORNING WILL FORETELL HIGHS THAT COULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 OR POSSIBLY EVEN REACH THE MID-UPPER 70S. WE
TOOK THE MIDDLE ROAD WITH LOWER 70S AT CHARLESTON. ISOLATED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP TODAY IN SE SOUTH CAROLINA BUT WE MAINTAINED SILENT
POPS FOR NOW.
ACROSS SE GEORGIA THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LONGER PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SOLID MID 70S PATTERN. QUITE
A FEW OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE 06Z RAP AND H3R
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SE GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH EVEN SMALL SBCAPES. WHILE K INDICES WERE PROGGED IN
THE MID TEENS AND DEEPER MOISTURE LIMITED...THERE WAS ENOUGH
EVIDENCE IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION QPF/REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT TO PAINT
SOME POPS BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT ALONG THE CONVERGENCE CORRIDOR AS
SPOTTY SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY...AT LEAST BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THERE ARE STRONG INDICATIONS FOR FOG AND STRATUS IF CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT OR REMAIN SCATTERED THIS EVENING. VARIOUS VSBY AND CIG
PROGS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG BUT THE MESOSCALE
WILL ONCE AGAIN DICTATE AS SOIL TEMPS HAVE BEEN WARMING THE PAST
FEW DAYS. WE MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG ALL INLAND LOCALES AND PATCHY
FOG ALONG THE COAST...LOWS IN THE 50S ALL AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL QUICKLY ERODE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE PARENT HIGH GETS WHISKED AWAY TO THE EAST. THE MORNING FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF...BUT ONCE THAT OCCURS A FAIRLY
NICE DAY IS IN STORE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AN EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE TRICKY BECAUSE THE COLDER AIR MAY NOT
OOZE INTO THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES
AND CLOUDS THICKEN. WE ARE SHOWING FAIRLY WARM TEMPS YET AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEDGE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
AND SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION
AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH
WITH UPPER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATE WEEK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ERODE ON SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER LARGE HIGH SHIFTS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PRODUCES A SURFACE LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE LOW AND BRINGS IT
STRAIGHT THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE GFS LIFTS IT NORTHEAST. WE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRUSH THE AREA ON MONDAY SO WE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SURGES
OF COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
EXPANDING AT 5-6 KFT AND FOG POTENTIAL LOOKS DIMINISHED. UNTIL
TRENDS DICTATE WE HAVE RAN WITH VFR OVERNIGHT. VFR INTO THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS STARTING TO INCREASE NEAR THE
END OF THE 06Z CYCLE.
KSAV...SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND WERE DIMINISHING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG FORMATION BUT WE RETAINED MVFR CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO
LATER TONIGHT AS OTHER CONDITIONS REMAINED QUITE FAVORABLE.
AFTER MID MORNING...VFR INTO THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
WE MAINTAINED A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH A FAIRLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT
TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT INDICATIVE OF SYNOPTIC FLOW BELOW 15 KT ACROSS
ALL WATERS. SINCE A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH HAD DEVELOPED...ENOUGH
THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENTS WILL EXIST TO BUMP SPEED INTO TO 10-15
KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASING SE SWELL COMPONENT SHOWING UP AT THE PLATFORMS OFFSHORE
AND EXPECT SEAS SEAWARD FROM GRAYS REEF AND BUOY TANGO TO BUILD TO
4-5 FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST WAVE-
WATCH AND SWAN MODEL OUTPUT.
A FAIRLY WEAK ALBEIT PROLONGED NORTHEAST FETCH WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEFORE STRENGTHENING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS ON SATURDAY AS
THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...THOUGH INCREASING WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE
WEAKER WINDS WITH THE LATEST FORECAST...SEAS MAY STAY JUST BELOW 6
FT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME 6 FOOTERS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY OVER OFFSHORE PORTIONS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
322 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY RETREATING TO THE EAST WITH WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING RAPIDLY ON BACKSIDE. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS RAPIDLY
WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS ALREADY IN NORTHWEST IOWA. TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALSO STABILIZED AND EVEN RISEN WITH THE INCREASED MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS THERMAL RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
HAVE REMAINED ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE ALONG WITH LIMITED SNOW COVER
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB NICELY. OF CONCERN WITH
CLOUDS...THERE IS A BROAD EXPANSE OF LOWER CLOUDINESS ACROSS
MISSOURI THIS MORNING WHICH IS LIFTING NORTHWARD ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. BOTH RAP AND HRRR INDICATE THIS AREA OF CLOUDS
SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...HAVE
GONE WITH MUCH MORE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CLOUDS PUSH EASTWARD.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
THE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS BENIGN FOR THE
EXTENDED. TONIGHT A BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS IOWA BUT
MOISTURE IS WOEFULLY LACKING. IN FACT THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH CLOUD COVER. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
BE A WIND SHIFT LATE TONIGHT TO THE NORTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SO TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
BACK UP. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME CLOUD COVER SO
I DID NOT GO TOO WARM ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
BE A LITTLE WARMER AS DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DRAW
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MUCH
MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT INTO IOWA BUT THIS DOES BEAR WATCHING. TEMP
PROFILES ARE RATHER INTERESTING AS WELL. SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR
SURFACE TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING LATE THURSDAY EVENING TO
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITHOUT ICE INTRODUCTION IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS WOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DRIZZLE. AT
THIS POINT THE MODELS REALLY KEEP ANY OF THIS POTENTIAL SOUTH OF
IOWA ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION ANY PRECIP ON DAY 4...ESPECIALLY SINCE DURING THE CRITICAL
TIME WHEN TEMPS ARE AROUND FREEZING ALL MODELS KEEP ANY PRECIP SOUTH
OF THE STATE.
THAT SYSTEM THEN MOVES OFF ON FRIDAY AND TEMPS BEHIND IT ARE JUST A
BIT COOLER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED THE MODELS DEVELOP A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT IMPACTS THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE CANADIAN AND THE EURO MODELS ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEY DIG THE SHORTWAVE INTO
IOWA BUT THERE IS ALSO A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DURING THIS TIME
THAT DOES NOT EXACTLY PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN ONE THUS THEY DEVELOP
TWO AREAS OF PRECIP...ONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ONE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEAVING IOWA IN BETWEEN WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP. BY THE TIME THE SHORTWAVES DO PHASE THE SYSTEM IS EAST OF
IOWA. WE HAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING AND I SAW NO REASON TO PULL
THEM AT THIS POINT BUT THERE CERTAINLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
GREATER CHANCE THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. ALSO...TEMPS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SOUTH AND A MIX
NORTH DURING THE DAY AND A MIX SOUTH TO SNOW NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
SLY FLOW WILL BE OVER IA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER NWRN IA. HAVE
INTRODUCED LLWS INTO THE TAFS FOR KFOD AND KMCW UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BRING WIND SHIFTS...BUT WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THEM.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...MS DEC 14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1154 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
HAVE LOWERED MINS MANY AREAS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUNGE AT OR JUST BELOW FCST MINS IN A FEW SITES.
CONCERNS MLI COULD BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER GIVEN DRY AIR AND FAVORABLE
E/SE WIND COMPONENT. ALSO WATCHING STRATUS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN ADVANCING
TOWARD FAR EASTERN CWA ATTIM. NAM AND RAP MODEL LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
HAVE DECENT HANDLE AND SUPPORT BRUNT OF THIS CLOUD DECK TO BRUSH
NORTHWEST IL PORTION OF CWA LATE THIS EVE INTO OVERNIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH IN DEVELOPING SE/S WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
HIGH. COULD SEE SOME STRATUS FRAGMENTS AS FAR WEST AS NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR A TIME LATER TNGT. OTHERWISE... SOME MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTHERN CWA. LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRATUS
OVER MO POSSIBLY LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER AREA IN STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS COULD HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS TO HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP TO BE SENT SOON.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
A VERY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON COURTESY OF A 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER MN AND WI.
DENSE HIGH CLOUD COVER FILTERING THE LOW DECEMBER SUN ANGLE AND
LIGHT WINDS HAD LIMITED WARMING TO ONLY IN THE MID TEENS TO AROUND
20 AS OF 2 PM WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. A FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING
IN THE PLAINS WILL REPLACE THE HIGH WITH A RETURN FLOW AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
FOCUS REMAINS ON TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AXIS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA...ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF CLEARING SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES UPSTREAM ACROSS
THE NEB AND KS...WOULD INDICATE A PERIOD OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS EVENING. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...THE VERY DRY AIRMASS AND
LIGHT NE WINDS WILL LEAD TO RAPID COOLING THIS EVENING AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. THE QUESTION WILL THEN BE HOW FAST THE
NEXT ROUND OF CI OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FOR NOW...WILL COUNT ON THE FAST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO SPREAD THE SHIELD OF AT LEAST THIN CI OVER THE DAKOTAS
TO REACH INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING MUCH LOWER. TEMPERATURES MAY THEN BECOME STEADY AROUND
SUNRISE AS A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP. FORECAST MINS FROM AROUND
7 NORTH TO 17 IN THE FAR SOUTH WOULD STILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING...WHICH WOUND UP SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE THE EVEN WARMEST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY/S FORECAST CYCLE.
TUESDAY...SOUTH WINDS AND DEEP WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY...BUT LIKELY STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE THINNER THAN TODAY. WITH SNOW COVER NEARLY
GONE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO OFFSET WARMING...BLENDED MODEL HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE FAR NORTH AND 30S ELSEWHERE LOOK
REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
FOR THE WEEK AHEAD...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI THEN
NEAR AVG TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ON THU WHEN LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP ON SUN AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY...A ~125 KT JET STREAK WILL MOVE RIGHT ACROSS IOWA BUT
MOST OF THE APPRECIABLE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OVER MN AND WI. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP CHANCES NORTH AS WELL.
PRIMARY SENSIBLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO NW WINDS WHICH WILL USHER
IN COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN. 850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM +2 C TO -6 C
BY AFTN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY..THE 300 MB PATTERN WILL TRANSITION INTO A SPLIT
FLOW WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH BRINGING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT. AT
THE LOW-LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND TRAVERSE THE PLAINS. SW 850 MB WINDS WILL RESPOND TO AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP. SFC FLOW WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE
E/SE...SLOWING SFC WARMING ON THU WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAY. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH THE LOWER LEVEL
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL REACH INTO THE MIDWEST.
LATEST 12.1/12Z MODEL RUNS KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY. ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF STILL HAS LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE CWA THU/THU NIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
SFC-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SATURATION IN
THIS LAYER BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE THU EVENING WHEN LAYERED
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE HAS ALREADY PUSHED EAST OF AREA. IF LIGHT
PRECIP WERE TO OCCUR...MAY HAVE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH 850 MB WARM
NOSE IN PLACE. INCLUDED -RA/-FZRA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ON THU.
SATURDAY...850-500 MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...SO DRY AND CALM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH GIVEN LACK OF
ANY NOTABLE THERMAL ADVECTION AND STEADY 1000-500 THICKNESSES
BETWEEN 540-546 DAM. CONSENSUS HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SUNDAY...POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
POTENTIAL FOR MLI AND DBQ TO BE BRUSHED BY PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
WITH LAKE ENHANCED STRATUS OVERNIGHT... BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ATTIM WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 925 MB LIKELY TO STEER
DECK DUE NORTH. THUS FOR NOW HAVE HINTED AT POTENTIAL WITH
SCT020 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AT MLI AND DBQ AND LET LATER SHIFTS
AMEND IF NEEDED. NEXT CHALLENGE IS THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT 925 MB LIKELY TO ADVECT IN STRATUS FROM MO DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS OF 3500-4500FT AGL AND CHANCE OF
HIGH MVFR CIGS 2500-3000FT MAINLY AT MLI AND BRL. EASTERLY WINDS
TO VEER TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS GENERALLY 6-12 KTS. DEPTH OF SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BRING
DRYING AND SCOURING OF STRATUS WITH VFR HIGH CLOUDINESS BY
TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF WEAK WIND SHIFT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1236 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 900 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2014
Precipitation coverage has dropped in the last couple of hours as
main precipitation now has shifted east of the area. Still looking
scattered rain showers for the remainder of the evening hours. A
couple of sleet reports have come in across southern Indiana. Dual
pol data and RAP soundings show freezing level between 3-4 kft, so
an occasional sleet pellet will remain possible through the evening
hours. Forecast largely on track with overnight temps holding in the
lower to middle 30s.
After coordinating with IND and PAH, introduced the chance for rain
showers and drizzle to the forecast for tomorrow for the area. This
would be mainly during the morning hours as latest guidance
continues to show some weak warm air advection precipitation
developing in conjunction with 850mb moisture transport. 01.18z
guidance picked up on this and now the HRRR and other meso models
show this developing toward sunrise. It should be another cloudy day
with highs stuck in the 40s.
Issued at 600 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2014
Main band of precipitation pushing east across south central KY into
the Bluegrass region early this evening. Areas to the north are more
spotty but likely to see drizzle with plenty of low level moisture
and weak lift in place. Temperatures are hovering in the 33 to 36
degree range for the last few hours, and not expecting further drops
as dewpoints have bottomed out or even come up a degree or two.
Still a slight chance for a sleet pellet or two across the north
where the colder air resides, but feel the main weather type this
evening and especially the overnight will be rain showers giving way
to drizzle. Have added drizzle to the forecast and adjusted POPs
for the evening hours.
Looking at some of the 01.18z data coming in, may need to raise POPs
for Tuesday or at least incorporate drizzle as forecast soundings
show low level moisture remaining in place trapped underneath a weak
inversion. With no ice present aloft and weak/moderate lift in the
low levels, drizzle would be the predominant ptype. Will evaluate
this further for a later update if necessary.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2014
Slow moving shallow arctic cold front will basically stall and wash
out over Tennessee. In fact, surface winds will shift to the east
tonight and then become very light Tuesday as a weak surface trough
moves across the southern Bluegrass.
Light rain will continue through mid to late afternoon north of the
Ohio River, and through late afternoon or early evening across
central Kentucky. A few sleet pellets may still mix in with rain
late this afternoon along and north of the Ohio, but temperatures
expected to stay just above freezing this afternoon will preclude
any light icing. Even by mid-evening, across our northern counties such
as Dubois and Scott, temperatures will stay at or above freezing.
Overnight lows will fall into the 30 to 33 degree range along our
northern tier of counties, and probably down to the lower 30s along
and south of the Ohio. Light rain will taper off later this evening
across our southeast.
With the approach of this surface trough, temperatures will actually
begin to warm aloft after midnight. Expect extensive cloudiness and
some drizzle overnight through mid morning Tuesday. High
temperatures will vary quite widely Tuesday from northwest to
southeast. Highs near Lake Cumberland may reach the lower to mid 50s
while staying near 40 across southwestern Indiana. Will continue
with just a slight chance of some light rain southeast of the Ohio
Tuesday, but any amounts will stay very light.
Cloudy skies will continue Tuesday night with lows in the lower to
mid 30s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2014
The upper level pattern during the long term forecast period will
largely be zonal, with fast moving disturbances moving through the
flow and the surface boundary remaining stalled nearby. Therefore,
the main forecast concern is precipitation chances and timing.
For Wednesday, one surface boundary will be pushing through eastern
Kentucky with Canadian high pressure building in from the northwest.
Steady cold air advection and a drying airmass should keep most of
the forecast area dry, with the exception being the Cumberland
regions where the 01.12z guidance continues to suggest the front
will stall out for the afternoon. Confined POPs to that area,
keeping the rest of the forecast area dry.
Reasonable agreement that across the Ohio Valley the Wednesday night
through Thursday morning period will be under the influence of high
pressure, so the slight precipitation chances were removed. Quick
warm advection return flow will lead to increasing clouds Thursday
and some saturation and lift is focused in the mid levels.
Some of the 01.12z deterministic guidance develops precipitation by
Thursday afternoon but the trend has been slower and drier with the
moisture return, so POPs were lowered, especially during the morning
hours. If the 01.12z guidance verifies, Thursday morning will be
dry. Rain chances look to spread south to north across the area
during the afternoon and evening hours and that wave will pass to
the north Thursday night into Friday.
01.12z guidance then shows a slightly stronger wave crossing the
southern US Friday into the first part of Saturday, with rain
chances centered on Friday night. This looks to be the wettest, most
widespread rain period of the week. 60 to 70 percent POPs look good
at this point. Beyond Saturday, some signals for a drier period with
high pressure building in, especially for Sunday.
Temperatures for the remainder of the work week and this weekend are
expected to be within seasonable normals and daily diurnals will be
the low with plenty of clouds and precipitation chances. Highs upper
40s to lower 50s and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1235 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2014
Still seeing forecast models indicating a lowering of cigs through
the rest of the overnight, down to IFR for all sites by daybreak,
with some drizzle as well. Temperatures should remain just above
freezing at each of the terminals. These lower cigs likely will
remain for most of the day tomorrow, though we may get back into the
MVFR range by mid/late afternoon. Northeast winds now will become
more variable as a surface front to our south lifts closer to the
state and the pressure gradient loosens.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........ZT
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1134 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 253 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
The light precipitation activity continues to diminish across the
region. Evidence per the RAP and Wvapor imagery of a h7/h5 wave
still to our west. It`s rather weak. But there may be just enough
lift with the residual moisture, to result in some very light
precip through the evening. Both the NAM and RAP pick up on this
minimal QPF. The freezing line is expected to move little through
the night. So issued a Special Weather Statement for portions of
southeast MO, southern IL through the evening, for the potential
for spotty very light freezing rain/drizzle. Overnight, PoPs
diminish. Dry weather Tuesday through most of Wednesday. Chance of
light rain very late in the day working into southeast MO. The
chances will increase from SW to NE Wednesday night. Later in the
night through early Thursday morning, may see a light mix across
northern portions of the area. Temps were a blend of MOS, existing
numbers and base model output.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
The GFS/ECMWF ensemble means were in general agreement on the
longwave pattern over the CONUS at this time, except on Mon (Day 7)
where the picture is a bit murkier in the swrn CONUS. We will be
lucky to see the sun in the wrn half of the area on Sat.
The finer details of the shrtwv activity were more uncertain among
the med range models, as they have had some trouble locking onto the
Pacific Express.
The extended forecast will start out with the lingering influence of
cold high sfc pressure for the PAH forecast area. By 12z Thu, model
soundings show the nrn half of the region may receive some light
freezing rain, changing to rain by mid morning. Sleet is possible.
The srn half will have rain. This should occur as moist flow aloft
begins to ride over the cooler air at the sfc.
The forecast will be very wet starting Thu night as a frontal
boundary sets up west to east somewhere across the PAH forecast
area, along with a developing wave of low pressure. The boundary is
forecast to move sewd on late on Fri in response to another shrtwv.
The best PoPs will be in the srn half of the region. Rain should
start to diminish from the nw Fri night as the system moves off, and
the region should be rain-free by Sat night under some degree of
ridging.
The ECMWF and GFS operational 12Z runs have different degrees of mid
level ridging over the weekend, and therefore the flatter GFS has
yet another shrtwv moving in from the west significantly quicker
than the ECMWF/UKMET and possibly the GEM. Therefore, what the
initialization blend provided was tamped down a bit as far as the
onset of rainfall. At this time, mainly areas west of the MS River
will have PoPs Sun. Due to model disagreement, limited chances of
rain were left in for Sun night and Mon. For now, thunder was left
out of the forecast, though it is not entirely impossible near the
low pressure wave Fri.
Expect temps to remain relatively mild through the extended period,
close to average for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1134 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
MVFR/IFR cigs and VFR/MVFR vsbys expected overnight. Any MVFR
vsbys will improve to VFR by 16z, but cigs will be slow to
improve, gradually increasing through MVFR to possibly low VFR by
00z. Northeast winds at 5 to 10 kts will drop to less than 5 kts
by 10z, then become southwest around 5 kts by 14z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...RST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1159 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/06Z TAFS...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE
AREA...BUT CIGS REMAIN LOW...LEAVING LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT
ELD/MLU/SHV/TXK AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT TYR/GGG/LFK. PATCHY -DZ AND
-RA WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT MLU/ELD/SHV BUT SHOULD FINALLY EXIT
THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E
AFTER 02/12Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN NWLY BETWEEN 07 AND 10 KTS
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. /20/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED OUR ENTIRE REGION THIS EVENING
LEAVING STRONG...YET SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.
TAKING A LOOK AT OUR 00Z SOUNDING...THE COLD AIR IS ABOUT 3KFT
THICK WITH A STRONG INVERSION NOTED AT THE 900MB LEVEL. WINDS AT
AND ABOVE THE WARM NOSE WERE STILL FROM A WSW DIRECTION. WHILE A
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION ATTM...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
WE SAY THIS BECAUSE A QUICK LOOK AT THE ISENTROPIC LEVEL NEAR A
THETA SFC OF 900-925MB...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUPPORT
THIS POSSIBILITY. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BEST AS WINDS APPEAR TO BACK
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARM NOSE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS REASON...
HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS FAR WEST AS THE
TYR/GGG AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ALREADY SEEING SOME
WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR SOUTH OF GGG WHICH SUPPORTS THIS THEORY.
CONCERNING OTHER CHANGES...THE PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS NE LA HAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES TO AT OR NEAR FCST LOWS
OVERNIGHT SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE LA INTO S
AR. OTHER CHANGES INCLUDED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS
WHICH WERE TOO WARM GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED ZONE
PACKAGE OUT SHORTLY...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 38 51 46 64 54 / 20 10 10 10 20
MLU 38 50 44 64 50 / 30 10 10 10 10
DEQ 31 47 39 54 50 / 10 10 10 20 30
TXK 34 49 43 57 52 / 20 10 10 20 20
ELD 35 49 42 60 50 / 20 10 10 10 20
TYR 35 50 45 62 55 / 20 10 10 20 20
GGG 35 50 46 64 55 / 20 10 10 10 20
LFK 38 54 48 68 56 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1151 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE...
NEARLY W-E FLOW ALONG THE CNDN BORDER. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU ERN ONTARIO. LLVL NW FLOW/H85 THERMAL
TROF WITH TEMPS AS LO AS -25 TO -28C RESULTED IN NUMEROUS LK EFFECT
SN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE W-NW WIND SN BELTS. BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE
RELATED TO DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC THAT LOWERED THE INVRN BASE TO
H9-925 AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX RAOBS AS WELL AS TENDENCY FOR THE
LLVL FLOW TO BECOME MORE ACYC WITH APRCH OF SFC HI PRES IN SRN MN IS
LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THE SN SHOWERS. THE SN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
SHIFTING AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO BACK WITH HI PRES MOVING INTO WI. NW
WIND GUSTS REACHED 45-50 MPH ALONG LK SUP DURING THE MRNG...BUT
WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF PRES RISE CENTER THIS
MRNG IS CAUSING WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. THE HI WAVES WHIPPED UP BY
THESE STRONG WINDS...AS HI AS 15 FT...AND ABOVE NORMAL LK WATER LVLS
WARRANTED ISSUANCE OF A LK SHORE FLOOD ADVY FOR THE MORE EXPOSED
ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES THAT WL EXPIRE AT 2/00Z. LOOKING TO THE W...
SKIES ARE MOCLR IN MN UNDER HI PRES RDG/AXIS OF LOWEST PWAT OF 0.03
INCH /10-15 PCT OF NORMAL/ REPORTED ON THE 12Z MPX/INL RAOBS...BUT
MORE HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE PAC NW/SW CANADA
ARE ALREADY PUSHING INTO WRN MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LES TRENDS LATE
TODAY...LO TEMPS TNGT WITH PASSAGE OF SFC RDG/VERY DRY AIRMASS AND
THEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME WAA PCPN ON TUE IN THE STRENGTHENING S FLOW
BTWN THE DEPARTING HI PRES AND LO PRES TROF ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
NOW MOVING THRU THE ROCKIES.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER IN SRN MN SHIFTS E THRU
WI...NRN LOWER MI AND INTO QUEBEC BY 12Z TUE...THE WINDS WL BACK
STEADILY TO THE S...CAUSING LINGERING SN SHOWERS IN THE W-NW WIND SN
BELTS TO SHIFT OUT INTO THE LK BY MIDNGT OR SO. WINDS WL ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WEAKER GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HI. CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY INCOMING AIRMASS...
EXPECT TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TO DIP AOB ZERO THIS EVNG. BUT
INCOMING HI CLDS RELATED TO STRENGTHENING S FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI TO THE E AND LO
PRES TROF IN THE PLAINS WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL AND
CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE OVERNGT. DESPITE THESE LIMITATIONS...TENDED TO
LOWER GOING FCST MIN TEMPS TOWARD -10F OVER THE INTERIOR W AND
SCENTRAL. ANOTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SN SHOWERS TO DVLP
OVERNGT DOWNWIND OF LK MI IN THE S FLOW AND IN PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS
AS LO AS -8 TO -10C /VS LK WATER TEMP ARND 5C AS REPORTED ON THE NRN
LK MI BUOY/. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR ON THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
THESE SN SHOWERS WL BE LO INVRN BASE FCST NEAR 3K FT AGL AND VERY
DRY NATURE OF THE LLVL AIR. THESE SN SHOWERS WL IMPACT MAINLY DELTA
COUNTY AFTER 06Z.
TUE...AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA IN ADVANCE
OF APRCHG SHRTWV/PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE SW FLOW BTWN
ACCOMPANYING SFC TROF AND DEPARTING HI PRES IN SE CANADA ARE FCST TO
IMPACT THE CWA. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO WIDESPREAD PCPN WL BE
MARGINAL MSTR RETURN ARND THE H85 LEVEL. SINCE THE MODELS SHOW SOME
HIER H85 DEWPTS ADVECTING INTO THE E HALF IN THE AFTN UNDER THE DEEP
LYR FORCING AND WHERE THERE WL REMAIN A LK EFFECT COMPONENT IN THE
SW FLOW OFF LK MI WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -8C...FCST THE HIER POPS/PCPN
TOTALS IN THAT AREA. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE A FEW
INCHES OF SN IN THE ERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SLIDES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA AND SWEEPS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. BETWEEN THE FRONTS/TROUGHS...AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY TO
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET
SLIDING FARTHER TO THE NORTH...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO
THE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...POTENTIALLY EVEN BEING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY (NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S).
THE FIRST TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY EVENING...SHIFTING THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER DELTA/SCHOOLCRAFT
INTIALLY IN THE EVENING...BUT QUICKLY DEPARTING WITHIN A COUPLE
HOURS. AS THAT DEPARTS...THE INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA AND
PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. SOME
LOCATIONS MIGHT PICK UP A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW BEFORE IT
DEPARTS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE TROUGH...BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHEST AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH 875MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND
-15C...THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AT THAT LEVEL WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE CLOUD DEPTH LIMITED AND IN TURN THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LIGHT. THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH). THAT
SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN COLDER 850MB TEMPS (TO -16C)...WHILE
PROVIDING DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAISING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 7-8KFT.
THAT WILL LEAD TO A 6-12HR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS. WHILE MUCH OF THE CLOUD
IS WITHIN THE DGZ...THINKING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS (GUSTING TO
30-40MPH) WILL HELP FRACTURE THE DENDRITES AND LEAD TO SNOW RATIOS
LOWER THAN NORMALLY EXPECTED IN THAT SITUATION.
THAT PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
AREA. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE
LAKE EFFECT (OR AT LEAST PUSH IT OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS
WINDS BACK). WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH BEHIND THE HIGH ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS PERIOD
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TOWARDS NORMAL ON
FRIDAY. WITH THE TROUGH BEING FAIRLY WEAK AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...DON/T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT AS COLDEST 850MB TEMPS ARE LOCKED UP WELL TO THE NORTH AND
GENERALLY HAVE VALUES AROUND -4C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS LEADS TO
MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DELTA-T VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. WITH LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWN ON THE MODELS...WILL JUST GO WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTHWEST WIND.
THAT NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART ON SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW/TROUGH TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW A
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT AND SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS COMES FROM THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT MOVES IN
BEHIND THE LOW/TROUGH ON MONDAY (850MB TEMPS OF -4C ON THE GFS AND
-8C ON THE ECMWF). EITHER WAY...THIS APPEARS MARGINAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT AND WILL SHOW DIMINISHING POPS ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. ALL IN ALL...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE AREA SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014
DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING
HRS AT KIWD/KCMX. MEANWHILE...WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ALREADY
ADVANCING N OVER LAKE MI IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING HIGH PRES...LOW MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT KSAW OVERNIGHT.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CIGS COULD BE IFR. OTHERWISE...AT ALL
TERMINALS...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
PRES RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LLWS AS WINDS INCREASE ABOVE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL TEND TO MIX OUT A BIT THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN GUSTY SFC WINDS. AS WINDS BECOME A LITTLE
MORE SW DURING THE DAY...EXPECT LOW MVFR CIGS TO CLEAR OUT AT KSAW
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. THEN...APPROACHING DISTURBANCE MAY
SPREAD SOME -SN INTO UPPER MI THIS AFTN. IT APPEARS BETTER POTENTIAL
OF -SN IS FARTHER E AT KSAW WHERE -SN MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
CONDITIONS. BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT KCMX LATE THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014
EXPECT WINDS/FREEZING SPRAY TO DIMINISH AND BACK TOWARD THE W AND SW
WITH PASSAGE OF SFC HI PRES RDG THIS EVNG. ALLOWED GOING HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY/GALE HEADLINES OVER THE EASTERN LAKE TO END AS
PLANNED. BUT AS THE HI MOVES STEADILY TO THE E AND ANOTHER LO PRES
TROF MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
SHARPEN AND CAUSE S WINDS TO INCREASE. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF S
GALES MAINLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE ON TUE WHEN THE SHARPEST
GRADIENT WILL PASS OVERHEAD. ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR LAKE SUPERIOR
OPEN WATER ZONES 264>267. THIS GALE EVENT WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT
LIVED AS THE TROF/WEAKER GRADIENT PASSES W-E THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES
LATE TUE...WITH GALES ENDING TUE EVENING. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE
ANOTHER W-NW GALE EVENT WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BUT SINCE THE WEATHER PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE...THE PASSAGE
OF THE TRAILING HI PRES RIDGE THRU THE AREA ON THU WILL RESULT IN
DIMINISHING/BACKING WINDS TO THE SW FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. NO GALES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
356 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
AT 330 AM...CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASING/THICKENING ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...BUT WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WE DID HAVE SOME WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE SHIFTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ONTO THAT SECTION OF THE NORTH SHORE.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS DAYTIME HIGHS AND CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW. THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SPREADING INTO EC MN AND NW WI AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THE
LATEST 06Z RUN HAS SHIFTED THE BAND A BIT SOUTH...GENERALLY INTO
OUR SOUTHERN WI ZONES. MODEL QPF WOULD SUPPORT AN INCH OR SO OF
SNOW IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR. STILL...THE HRRR AND THE 4KM
NMM WRF DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS ALSO LOOKING
REASONABLY DRY...HAVE OPTED TO ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS NW WI
TODAY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WILL CARRY CHANCE/SCT
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SHORE...AND SCATTERED FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.
THE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BROUGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A BIT AS
WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS UP.
HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET WITH A
WARMING TREND.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE QUASI ZONAL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH/NEAR THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST
THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. WE DROPPED THE MENTION OF
FLURRIES FOR MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AS FORCING LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND
SOUNDINGS DRY. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING TO SOME
LAKE SNOW SNOW. DELTA-T VALUES ARE NOT THAT HIGH...SO ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY AS THIS WAVE BRUSHES THE
REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW-MID LEVELS. WE MAY NEED TO ADD A POP
OR FLURRIES IF MORE MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
A STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIXTURE TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TWENTIES
THURSDAY...THEN WARM INTO THE UPPER TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES ON
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES MONDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
VFR EXPECTED UNTIL 15Z WHEN SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE FORECAST.
WITH THIS PCPN...MVFR IS ANTICIPATED. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 09Z AS LLJ PASSES NEARBY. EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER
00Z EXCEPT IN THE VCNTY OF HYR WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 17 5 16 3 / 20 10 0 0
INL 12 0 10 -9 / 20 10 10 0
BRD 18 5 16 3 / 20 10 0 0
HYR 20 5 18 0 / 30 20 0 0
ASX 21 9 18 3 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1123 PM MST MON DEC 1 2014
.UPDATE...
PER INCREASING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS WEAK COLD FRONT SPILLS
IN FROM THE NW...WE ARE SEEING SOME BANDED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
ACROSS OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING THE BILLINGS AREA. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ANY ACCUMS WILL NOT
AMT TO MUCH AS PCPN SHOULD STAY GENERALLY LIGHT. PCPN WILL TAPER
OFF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ZONES PULLING EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE THE WARM SPOTS WITH AREAS WITH TIMBERCREST
RAWS AT 40 WHILE A FEW SHELTERED LOCATIONS LIKE LITTLE BIG HORN
ARE STILL IN SINGLE DIGITS. THIS DEPARTURE OF THE ARCTIC LOOKS TO
BE PERMANENT AS SPEEDY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SERIES OF
WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DRY AIR GETTING DRAGGED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS LIMITING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF MOISTURE
THAT IS BEING PUSHED OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY A LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO IDAHO AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND COOKE CITY CAMS DO SHOW SOME SNOW BUT
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AT DERBY MOUNTAIN AND TIMBERCREST SHOW THIS
IS ONLY IMPACTING THE BACKSIDE OF THE BEARTOOTHS AND THE
ABSAROKAS. RUC CONSISTENTLY HOLDING THIS SNOW OUT OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT DO HAVE 4 TO 8 INCH MOUNTAIN ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
AS AXIS OF CYCLONIC FLOW SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT IT DOES
ALLOW THE SURFACE TROUGH TO PULL EASTWARD AS A WEAK FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT IS VERY LIMITED AS IT IS NOT A STRONG
AIRMASS CHANGE SO TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER
TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. THERE IS A WINDOW OF SOME GAP FLOW
WINDS IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA THIS EVENING BUT THEY WILL WANE AS
THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY ANOTHER BOUNDARY SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BETTER
POCKET OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT. THIS SETS UP A BREEZY DAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS SO DESPITE A MUCH WARMER START TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT CLIMB PAST THE 30S. HIGH RISES KICKING IN TUESDAY NIGHT
STRENGTHEN THIS HIGH AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA SO SURFACE
FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING A SHOT AT
SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS A BUNCH OF ENERGY
FLOWING THROUGH IT CAUSES HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE AREA. THIS
SUPPORTS ANOTHER BIT OF MODERATION WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY
QUIET WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
A DIRTY RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA BY
THURSDAY...WITH A GOOD TAP PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THURSDAY...GIVING A CHANCE FOR POPS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND NEAR
WESTERN PLAINS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OTHER THAN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POINTING TO
A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...AND DRY WEATHER. MODELS INDICATE
A STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.
GFS SWEEPS THE WAVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE EC BRINGS WEAKER WAVE...AND
SHIFT BULK OF MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT POPS
FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BUT ONLY PLACEHOLDER...FLURRY
TYPE...POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AT THIS POINT. THE RIDGE APPEARS TO
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND GENERALLY PERSISTS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPS IN 40S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...PEAKING WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-40 KTS WILL AFFECT KLVM
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. LOOK FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS OFTEN OBSCURED. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CAN OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. SCATTERED SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG HORNS REGION
EARLY TUESDAY OBSCURING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
THREAT OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE KSHR VICINITY AFTER 10Z...BUT
PLAN TO KEEP THIS OUT OF OF THE KSHR TAF FOR NOW. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 019/034 010/033 019/045 027/048 027/050 025/043 025/042
21/B 00/B 12/W 11/B 00/B 21/B 00/B
LVM 030/037 014/040 029/045 029/046 028/050 025/044 027/041
21/B 01/B 13/W 22/W 11/B 21/B 11/B
HDN 016/034 006/033 015/044 022/046 022/050 021/043 021/043
21/B 00/B 12/J 11/B 00/B 21/M 00/B
MLS 008/027 002/029 009/038 016/041 019/044 019/039 018/039
20/B 00/B 01/B 11/B 00/B 11/M 00/B
4BQ 013/033 005/034 014/042 018/044 022/044 020/041 020/039
21/B 00/B 01/B 11/U 00/B 11/M 00/B
BHK 006/025 004/028 011/035 015/040 019/040 018/035 016/036
21/B 00/U 01/B 00/B 00/B 11/M 00/B
SHR 013/036 010/038 021/045 023/046 021/049 020/044 022/042
22/J 00/B 12/W 11/B 00/B 22/W 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
909 PM MST MON DEC 1 2014
.UPDATE...
SOME WEAK ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT IS PRODUCING SOME HIGH COUNTRY
SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
AWAY FROM ANY DOWNSLOPE EFFECT. HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE EAST AND BOOSTED MOUNTAIN POPS. REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH IMPACT SNOWFALL. TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS AS
WELL. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ZONES PULLING EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE THE WARM SPOTS WITH AREAS WITH TIMBERCREST
RAWS AT 40 WHILE A FEW SHELTERED LOCATIONS LIKE LITTLE BIG HORN
ARE STILL IN SINGLE DIGITS. THIS DEPARTURE OF THE ARCTIC LOOKS TO
BE PERMANENT AS SPEEDY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SERIES OF
WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DRY AIR GETTING DRAGGED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS LIMITING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF MOISTURE
THAT IS BEING PUSHED OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY A LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO IDAHO AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND COOKE CITY CAMS DO SHOW SOME SNOW BUT
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AT DERBY MOUNTAIN AND TIMBERCREST SHOW THIS
IS ONLY IMPACTING THE BACKSIDE OF THE BEARTOOTHS AND THE
ABSAROKAS. RUC CONSISTENTLY HOLDING THIS SNOW OUT OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT DO HAVE 4 TO 8 INCH MOUNTAIN ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
AS AXIS OF CYCLONIC FLOW SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT IT DOES
ALLOW THE SURFACE TROUGH TO PULL EASTWARD AS A WEAK FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT IS VERY LIMITED AS IT IS NOT A STRONG
AIRMASS CHANGE SO TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER
TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. THERE IS A WINDOW OF SOME GAP FLOW
WINDS IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA THIS EVENING BUT THEY WILL WANE AS
THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY ANOTHER BOUNDARY SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BETTER
POCKET OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT. THIS SETS UP A BREEZY DAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS SO DESPITE A MUCH WARMER START TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT CLIMB PAST THE 30S. HIGH RISES KICKING IN TUESDAY NIGHT
STRENGTHEN THIS HIGH AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA SO SURFACE
FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING A SHOT AT
SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS A BUNCH OF ENERGY
FLOWING THROUGH IT CAUSES HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE AREA. THIS
SUPPORTS ANOTHER BIT OF MODERATION WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY
QUIET WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
A DIRTY RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA BY
THURSDAY...WITH A GOOD TAP PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THURSDAY...GIVING A CHANCE FOR POPS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND NEAR
WESTERN PLAINS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OTHER THAN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POINTING TO
A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...AND DRY WEATHER. MODELS INDICATE
A STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.
GFS SWEEPS THE WAVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE EC BRINGS WEAKER WAVE...AND
SHIFT BULK OF MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT POPS
FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BUT ONLY PLACEHOLDER...FLURRY
TYPE...POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AT THIS POINT. THE RIDGE APPEARS TO
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND GENERALLY PERSISTS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPS IN 40S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...PEAKING WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-40 KTS WILL AFFECT KLVM
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. LOOK FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS OFTEN OBSCURED. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CAN OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. SCATTERED SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG HORNS REGION
LATE THIS EVENING OBSCURING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT THREAT OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE KSHR VICINITY AFTER
07Z...BUT PLAN TO KEEP THIS OUT OF OF THE KSHR TAF FOR NOW. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 019/034 010/033 019/045 027/048 027/050 025/043 025/042
11/B 00/B 12/W 11/B 00/B 21/B 00/B
LVM 030/037 014/040 029/045 029/046 028/050 025/044 027/041
11/B 01/B 13/W 22/W 11/B 21/B 11/B
HDN 016/034 006/033 015/044 022/046 022/050 021/043 021/043
21/B 00/B 12/J 11/B 00/B 21/M 00/B
MLS 008/027 002/029 009/038 016/041 019/044 019/039 018/039
20/B 00/B 01/B 11/B 00/B 11/M 00/B
4BQ 013/033 005/034 014/042 018/044 022/044 020/041 020/039
21/B 00/B 01/B 11/U 00/B 11/M 00/B
BHK 006/025 004/028 011/035 015/040 019/040 018/035 016/036
22/J 00/U 01/B 00/B 00/B 11/M 00/B
SHR 013/036 010/038 021/045 023/046 021/049 020/044 022/042
22/J 00/B 12/W 11/B 00/B 22/W 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
309 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...RESULTING IN WEAK RADAR RETURNS ALONG TO NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY INCLUDING OVER MY SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. CIGS LOWERING
FROM 4-6K AGL SO POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING. OBSERVING
SITES THOUGH HAVE NOT REPORTED ANYTHING AND HAVE NOT SEEN ANYTHING
ON AREA WEBCAMS THUS FAR. STILL...WITH THE CIGS THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS
AM...LEANING ON THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. ZERO IMPACTS.
WEAK CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WARMER SOME LOCATIONS
BUT REMAIN COLD RANGING FROM 10 ABOVE NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. MOST MODELS
ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THE CAA TODAY OVER MY
NORTH...WHICH WAS ADDED INTO THE FORECAST LAST EVENING...SO SEE
NO REASON TO REMOVE.
MAINLY DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS. LOWS GENERALLY 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
BROAD PACIFIC RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL LEAD
TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
POSITION OF A SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY AFFECTING NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GEM/ECMWF ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE...WHEREAS THE GFS
IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTIONS AND KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW CHANCES NEAR THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION SUNDAY.
COOLER AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
419 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN THIS MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP. A AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST HAS SET UP FOR THE MORNING...WITH
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN SEVERAL IMPORTANT FACTORS. THE FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT HAS BEEN MAINTAINED...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IS NOT PARTICULARLY
HIGH.
A COLD AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE HAS BOTTOMED OUT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA BELOW FREEZING. A FEW SPOTS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER REMAIN IN THE 32-35 DEGREE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO CURRENT VALUES
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...WHEN A SLOW INCREASE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN.
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND HAS ALREADY BEGUN IN THE 925MB-800MB
LAYER...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS
HELPING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...AND THE
EFFECTIVENESS OF THIS FORCING IS DUBIOUS AT BEST. THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AT 700MB THAT IS MOVING INTO THE REGION...BUT THIS
WAVE IS UNDERGOING A DAMPENING OF AMPLITUDE. ALSO...700MB IS NEAR
THE TOP OF THE EXPECTED SOMEWHAT-SHALLOW LAYER OF NEAR-SATURATION
(GENERALLY AT AND BELOW 8KFT BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS). EVEN ADDED
TOGETHER...IT IS HARD TO FIND SIGNIFICANT FORCING...AND IT IS NO
SURPRISE THAT MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS GENERALLY LIGHT AND SCATTERED.
THIS ALSO MATCHES CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WITH ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED PATCHES OF ECHOES ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST
AREA AND UPSTREAM. HRRR/RAP RUNS SUGGEST A MAXIMIZATION OF
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE NEAR 15Z...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN
THE EASTERN (AND POSSIBLY NORTHEASTERN) SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ONLY THE 06Z NAM12 SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OF MORE THAN ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...AND ITS DEWPOINT
INITIALIZATION WAS SEVERAL DEGREES TOO HIGH.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ALSO A CAUSE FOR CONCERN...WITH WIDE
SPREAD IN THE EXPECTED TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF NEAR-SURFACE
WARMING. SREF PLUMES SHOW OVER 10 DEGREES OF SPREAD AT
21Z...STRADDLING EITHER SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK. THE LOW-LEVEL
ADVECTION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND WITH CLOUDS IN
PLACE...INSOLATION WILL NOT ADD MUCH TO THE WARMING EITHER. THE
WHOLE CWA SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THIS IS
UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN QUICKLY. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 20S...SATURATION STILL NEEDS TO OCCUR...AND THIS MAY ALSO
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.
ULTIMATELY...WHAT IS EXPECTED IS THAT OBSERVED RADAR ECHOES WILL
SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN NOW AND
15Z. HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THERE COULD BE A FEW PATCHES OF RESPECTABLE
PRECIPITATION...PRODUCING SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. SOME LOCATIONS MAY ONLY END UP UNDER LIGHT ECHOES
(TRACE AMOUNTS). NEAR ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...LIGHT SLEET COULD
OCCUR...AS THE WARM LAYER ALOFT ONLY SLIGHTLY CROSSES THE FREEZING
MARK...AND NEAR-SURFACE SATURATION STILL OCCURS. AFTER
THAT...SOUNDINGS WILL STRONGLY FAVOR FREEZING RAIN UNTIL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. BASED ON THE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE PROFILES...THE ADVISORY TIMING STILL LOOKED TO BE
ALIGNED NICELY. THE ONLY QUESTION IS ACTUALLY GETTING
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR...AND IT MAY END UP THAT ISSUES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY BAD IN MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THE ZERO-IMPACT BEST-CASE SCENARIO TO REMOVE ANY
OF THE ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT OCCURS...ANOTHER PUSH OF
COLD AND DRY AIR WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE BOUNDARY IS NOW EXPECTED
TO REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE ILN CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SOME OF THE WARMER MODELS ALLOW FOR WARMING IN SOUTHERN OHIO
AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE FORECAST
WILL ALLOW FOR THIS POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
THERE.
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. A WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE ILN CWA...MEANING THAT ATTENTION FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS MORE ON FRIDAY. THIS IS AN ADJUSTMENT
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED
SLOWER WITH THE RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE OHIO VALLEY. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE SLOWER ONSET MEANS THAT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES WERE LESS OF AN ISSUE WITH THIS SET OF
GRIDS...BUT SOME MIX WITH SNOW (OR POSSIBLY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION) COULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL (MORE LIKELY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA).
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF
AND 12Z CMC ARE STRONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND
LINGER CHANCE POPS THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRYING WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TO A POSITION NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER WITH TIME ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
ALOFT. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK LIFT IN THE DEVELOPING WARM...MOIST
PATTERN ALOFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS FREEZING RAIN AT
THE SURFACE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. RIGHT NOW...THINKING THE PCPN
WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO RESTRICT VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL EVENTUALLY GET
PULLED/ADVECTED NORTH THAN NORTHEAST THROUGH TIME. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY DROP INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY. PCPN WILL EXIT THE REGION AFTER 18Z AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST.
FOR TONIGHT...REGION SHOULD BE STUCK IN THE LOW LEVEL MOIST...WAA
PATTERN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE IFR CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ053>056-060>065-073-074.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ070>072-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ091>093.
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR INZ058-059.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ066-
073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1253 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AS AIR IS LIFTED OVER THE FRONT. SUB FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
WORK EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
IN RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR LEVEL JET ALONG WITH SOME H8
JET CONVERGENCE LED TO WIDESPREAD AREA OF PCPN ACRS THE REGION
THIS AFTN. INITIAL WEAK IMPULSE EXITING THE REGION WITH PCPN IN A
GENERAL LULL ATTM.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT WEAK SYSTEM PIVOTING THRU THE REGION. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS WITH MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE STALLED SFC
FNT TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE A VERY LIGHT
QPF EVENT. LATEST RUNS WOULD SUGGEST MOST AREAS RECEIVE QPF OF
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WITH A NE LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND SUNRISE AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
RAP MODEL HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THIS EVENINGS 00Z ILN SOUNDING. HAVE
TRENDED HOURLY TEMPERATURE SOLN TOWARD LATEST RAP AND FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE ADJUSTED TOWARD SREF SOLN. THIS YIELDS
A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE EXISTING
FREEZING RAIN ADVSY AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED EXISTING FREEZING
RAIN ADVSY. HAVE ADDED SCIOTO COUNTY WHERE TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO BE
AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS UP LIGHT PCPN WILL CHANGE TO RAIN TUESDAY
MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
PREV DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOONS WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK
TO THE EAST. LATEST TIMING HAS IT LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...THE PCPN WILL GET SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL WORK TO
NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE STALLED
BOUNDARY. CRITICAL THICKNESSES ARE SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WORKING IN
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THE AREA COULD EXPERIENCE SOME
FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
EVENT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN NRN KENTUCKY WILL
STAY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT...SO THE THREAT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH. ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM THE CVG TRI-
STATE AREA OVER TO PIKE COUNTY OHIO...NORTHWARD TO AROUND I-70.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO
TO THE LOWER 30S IN NRN KENTUCKY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PCPN WILL LIFT NORTH QUICKLY ON TUESDAY. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM. FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER AROUND I-70 TO AROUND
18Z. NORTH OF I-70...PCPN SHOULD FALL AS SNOW OR SLEET. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM ON TUESDAY REACHING THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH
AND THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH.
THE PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PCPN WILL LINGER IN THE EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN WEDNESDAY AND WILL BECOME MORE ENTRENCHED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RECOVER INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S,
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD
TO SOME DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL VARIATION IN THE ONSET OF ANY PCPN
THOUGH SO WILL TREND TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE
FASTER GFS AND SLOWER CMC. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HAVE SOME LOWER
CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN ALLOW FOR HIGHER CHANCE POPS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT. PTYPE COULD BE A BIT OF AN ISSUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE PCPN MOVES IN AND/OR THE COLDER
AIRMASS RETREATS NORTHWARD IN THE DEVELOPING WAA. FOR NOW WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE CHANGING PCPN
OVER TO ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF
AND 12Z CMC ARE STRONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND LINGER
CHANCE POPS THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SOME MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND DRYING WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TO A POSITION NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER WITH TIME ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
ALOFT. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK LIFT IN THE DEVELOPING WARM...MOIST
PATTERN ALOFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS FREEZING RAIN AT
THE SURFACE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. RIGHT NOW...THINKING THE PCPN
WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO RESTRICT VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL EVENTUALLY GET
PULLED/ADVECTED NORTH THAN NORTHEAST THROUGH TIME. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY DROP INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY. PCPN WILL EXIT THE REGION AFTER 18Z AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST.
FOR TONIGHT...REGION SHOULD BE STUCK IN THE LOW LEVEL MOIST...WAA
PATTERN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE IFR CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ053>056-060>065-073-074.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ070>072-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ091>093.
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR INZ058-059.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
INZ066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1121 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR LEVELS IN PORTIONS
OF WESTERN ARKANSAS... AND WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR INTO MID MORNING TUESDAY AT THOSE TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE AT KMLC... WHILE OTHER EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES
CONTINUE TO HAVE CEILINGS ABOVE 3K FEET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MID DAY TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014/
UPDATE...
LOWS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBS/HRRR MODEL TRENDS. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST HRRR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK FROM WEST
TO EAST TOWARD DAWN. HOWEVER...IT IS TYPICAL FOR THE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO GET RID OF THE LOW CLOUDS FASTER THAN IT ACTUALLY
OCCURS THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR THIS UPDATE...I HAVE TWEAKED LOWS UP
IN THE WEST A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE REAL POSSIBILITY THAT THE
CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE A BLANKET THE ENTIRE NIGHT.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT WESTERN ARKANSAS
SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHER CEILINGS WILL
PREVAIL AT EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO ALL SITES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THIN LAYER SC CLOUD OVER FORECAST AREA PROBLEMATIC
FOR THE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW PERSISTENT THAT CLOUD LAYER WILL BE.
FAIRLY CONFIDENT NORTHWEST AR ZONES WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY WHILE WESTERN ZONES EVENTUALLY CLEAR. USING
LATEST RUC/HRRR SOLUTION WHICH LEADS TO TEENS WEST
LOW-MID 20S EAST WITH CLOUD COVER.
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BACK TO WEST - SOUTHWEST
OPENING DOOR TO INCREASING MOISTURE ON LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW. CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH UPPER SUPPORT.
LOW CHANCE/MARGINAL POP SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH I-40.
UPPER WAVE THAT REACHES THE WEST COAST FRIDAY WILL
BRING OUR AREA A GOOD (OR BETTER) CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SLOWER ECMWF WOULD TARGET
LATE SUNDAY..WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BIT ABOVE
NORMAL. GW
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
200 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION
TUESDAY...BRINGING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX THAT WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN SLIDE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MAY MOVE INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF PA EARLY THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP OVER VIRGINIA
INTO EXTREME SE PA AT 06Z. UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR
TERM MDL DATA FAVORS KEEPING THE PRECIP LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF
A KHGR TO KLNS LINE THRU DAWN. ALTHOUGH 06Z SFC OBS REPORTING RAIN
AT KTHV...MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO MAINLY SLEET
TOWARD DAWN...AS NORTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS COLDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN
PA.
A BLEND OF LATEST LAMP AND HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO COAST DOWNWARD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 12Z TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UTEENS OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE L30S OVR THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING
LIGHT AND GENERALLY NUISANCE WEATHER EVENT FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT PRECIP...INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET WILL
BE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.
A VERY COMPLICATED PRECIP TYPE/TRANSITION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
12Z TUESDAY AND 12Z WEDNESDAY...THANKS TO A SLOWLY RETREATING
RELATIVELY SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
BENEATH THE WELL-DEFINED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG 130-150
KT UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER GLAKES REGION.
AFTER AN INITIAL FEW...TO SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF WET SNOW/SLEET
DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS HEADING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...A CHANGEOVER TO MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL/SLEET AMOUNTS TUESDAY WILL BE AOB 1 INCH IN MOST
PLACES...FOLLOWED BY AROUND 0.10 OF ICE ACROSS SCENT PENN. UP TO
0.25 OF AN INCH OF GLAZING IS POSSIBLE BY 09Z WED ACROSS THE
LAURELS AND NW MTNS...NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE RT 219
CORRIDOR.
LATE DAY MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AT
BEST. ANY FCST TEMP ERRORS TUESDAY WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE
CONSIDERING THE VERY LOW SFC DEWPOINTS HEADED OUR WAY /FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY/ FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH AT THE SFC TO TURN THE PRECIP TO
LIGHT RAIN LATER TUES NIGHT ACROSS THE LAURELS AND LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WHILE AREAS OF LIGHT FZRA OR FZDZ COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MOST OR ALL OF THE NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS AT THE TAIL END OF A MARGINAL EVENT. WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ALOFT...WITH 850MB TEMPS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
AROUND +3C AND INCREASING AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. WITH COLD AIR
DAMMING TAKING PLACE EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
LINGER...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL PA WHERE IT WILL BE DECOUPLED. THE
LOWER SUSQ..AND THE ELEVATED REGIONS THAT MIX OUT...OR WHERE THE
WARM AIR REACHES THE SFC...WILL SEE RAIN.
BY MID WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL
SWITCH TO RAIN. ONCE THE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THE PRECIP
WILL CEASE ABRUPTLY AND DRY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE PATTERN AGAIN. MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ONCE
AGAIN PERSIST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER
PLAINS/MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN U.S. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. A BUBBLING- UP OF MOISTURE/PRECIP FROM THE OHIO/TENN VALLEYS
IS AN AGREED-UPON SOLUTION AMONG THE VARIOUS GUID MEMBERS.
THUS...SOME PRECIP IS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE EC
AND GFS THEN DIFFER ON WHAT DOES/NOT DEVELOP ON THE COAST. THEY
ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...BUT STILL MAJOR VARIANCES
OM TIMING AND INTENSITY. WILL HOLD THE FORECAST VERY SIMILAR TO
GOING FCST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT BROAD AREAS OF POPS LATE
FRIDAY...INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT AS LARGE SFC
HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF PA SETTLES OVER THE STATE. SFC
WINDS WILL VEER FROM NW TO ENE BY 12Z TUES.
LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NWD ACROSS
THE AIRSPACE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SFC TROF
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLC. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS LIKELY TUES
EVE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH 40-50KT SWRLY WINDS A FEW TO SVRL KFT AGL.
SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY CLIMB A FEW DEGS ABOVE FREEZING
TUES NGT OVER THE SE AIRFIELDS CHANGING ANY LINGERING PCPN TO
PLAIN RAIN...BUT THE COLD AIR APPEARS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS WHICH SUGGESTS PATCHY -FZRA/-FZDZ IS
POSSIBLE. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES.
OUTLOOK...
WED...LOW CIGS TERMINAL-WIDE EARLY. PM IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR
LKLY E OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PROLONGED IFR AT
JST.
THU...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WEST...OTHERWISE VFR WITH NO SIG WX.
FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LKLY IN RAIN OR MIXED PCPN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-012-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ017-024-025-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ010-011-018-019-026>028-035-036-056-057-059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/GARTNER
AVIATION...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1039 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
HAD TO MOVE LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUDS AND FLURRIES A BIT FARTHER INLAND
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...BUT THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY PULL OUT TUES
MORNING AS LLVL WINDS BECOME SSW. GIVEN A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR ORGANIZATION ON RADAR...
HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS A BIT AND JUST MENTIONED FLURRIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
DRAWS CLOSER TO THE REGION...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
SO FAR TODAY. WIND CHILLS REMAIN BETWEEN 0 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. CLEAR SKIES EXIST ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THREE FOLD...AND INCLUDE MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...SMALL LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OVER N-C WISCONSIN FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND HEAD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT. THOUGH
THE COLDEST AIR WILL HAVE DEPARTED THE REGION TO THE EAST...CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE TUMBLING TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING. ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW LOW TO GO IN THESE
INSTANCES BECAUSE THE COLD SPOTS CAN QUICKLY FALL 20 DEGREES IN JUST
A FEW HOURS. UPSTREAM OBS THIS MORNING SHOWED PLENTY OF READINGS IN
THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE AND THATS A GOOD START FOR THE COLD SPOTS
OF N-C WISCONSIN. AS THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RAPIDLY TIGHTENS AND SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE LATE IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHEN CIRRUS ARRIVES.
ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE TO 950MB WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING STRATO-CU AND
FLURRIES TO MUCH OF EASTERN WISCONSIN. KEPT A SMALL ACCUMULATION
OVER THE DOOR...BUT THINKING ONLY A DUSTING AT BEST DUE TO THE VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. LOWS 0 TO 5 ABOVE OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKE
SHORE.
TUESDAY...AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES IMPACT EASTERN
WISCONSIN...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING OVERHEAD DURING
THE MORNING AHEAD OF A SHEARED SHORTWAVE. THINK THE CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE SHORE AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW DURING THE MORNING. DO
NOT SEE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES DUE TO A VERY DRY
LAYER BETWEEN 900-700MB. AS THE SHORTWAVE DRAWS CLOSER DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PROGGED SOUNDINGS OVER N-C WISCONSIN SHOW THAT DRY WEDGE
ERODING. WITH FORCING FROM DECENT MID-LEVEL FGEN...CAN SEE A LIGHT
SNOW CHANCE FOR THE NORTH BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES SOME. HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
WINTER IS TAKING A VACATION FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO
AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE AND FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
LAKE-EFFECT STRATUS (MVFR CIGS) AND FLURRIES WILL AFFECT THE
FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD RETREAT BACK TOWARDS THE LAKE BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCT
SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
935 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LL MOISTURE CONFINED IN THE LOWER LEVELS (BLO H85) COUPLED WITH
ENHANCED CLOUD LINES EMANATING WITHIN IN PERTURBATIONS IN STOUT LL
ONSHORE FLOW WL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME MARINE AND MEASURABLE
COASTAL SHOWERS DURING TEH REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLY
FROM ORANGE COUNTY SWD. COASTAL SITES MAY SEE UPWARDS OF .1 TO .2
INCHES LOCALLY WITH INLAND AREAS MAINLY LESS THAN 01 FROM ACTIVITY.
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM AND NO UPDTS ARE PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...
TEMPO BKN040 WITH ISOLATED/SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 03/00Z
THEN ISOLATED AT THE COAST AFTER 03/00Z. WILL KEEP VCSH IN TAFS.
&&
.MARINE...
XMR 915 MHZ PROFILER NETWORK ALONG WITH THE SOUNDING FROM THE SAME
LOCATION SHOW 25 KT WINDS IN THE LOWER 3K FT. LTST RUC SHORT TERM
GUID FROM SFC TO H925 SUGGEST CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST 20 TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE BL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FOR MOST OF THE COAST
ASIDE FROM THE VOLUSIA AREA. WITH LTST SFC AND BUOY OBS INDICATING
THE SAME HAVE EXPENDED THE SCA TO COVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD LINE SOUTHWARD. SEA HGHTS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
BECOME FULLY ARISEN OVER THE ADVISORY AREA WITH 5 TO 7 FT BEING
INDICATED.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM.
&&
$$
JP/WU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
942 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH WEDGE TYPE CONDITIONS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL REMAINS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TO THE WEST...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE STRUGGLING TO CROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. WEDGE FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. GIVEN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...HAVE SCALED
BACK TIMING OF POPS FOR THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS UNTIL THIS EVENING.
12Z NAM AND RUC MODELS INDICATE RAIN ALONG THE COAST COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH MEASURABLE RAIN
NOT EXPECTED. STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REFLECT THE STRUGGLES OF THE FRONT
AND WEDGE CONDITIONS. HAVE RANGED AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM NEAR 60
ALONG THE NC LINE TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE CSRA.
WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY USHERING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WITH WEAK DYNAMICS AND PWAT VALUES OF 1 INCH
OR LESS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD FOG EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. DO NOT
EXPECT FOG TO BE DENSE ATTM...HOWEVER SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
DENSE FOG AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT BECOME DIFFUSE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS COMBINATION
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...IS INCREASING.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
AROUND 70 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE MAKING SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES WITH
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ALSO PERSISTING. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS LOW WITH FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST. MODELS AGREE THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHEASTERN TX ORGANIZING THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM
PASSING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN US KEEPING ACTIVE WEATHER
OVER THE AREA AND RAIN CHANCES AGAIN NEXT MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
THIS EVENING AS WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
CEILINGS AROUND 3500 FT THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
CEILINGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING AND LIKELY BECOME MVFR OR IFR FOR
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF FRONTS STALL NEAR OUR REGION OR
BACK DOOR THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
711 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AROUND
DAYBREAK WILL TEND TO HANGUP ACROSS NC/SC STATE LINE LATER THIS
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION BREAKS
AFTER MID MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE VERY
WARM LAYERS ATOP THIS INVERSION AND A CLEAN BACKDOOR FROPA IS
UNLIKELY TODAY ACROSS SE AND CENTRAL COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
CLOUDS...TEMPS...AND EVEN SPOTTY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TODAY THE
MAIN FORECAST QUESTS.
ACROSS SE SOUTH CAROLINA...ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG A SHALLOW SURFACE
ONGOING ALONG OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES EARLY IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
INTO NE SOUTH CAROLINA LEAVING SOME POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AT TIMES FROM CHARLESTON TO BEAUFORT BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
PATTERN EVOLUTION LATER THIS MORNING WILL FORETELL HIGHS THAT COULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 OR POSSIBLY EVEN REACH THE MID-UPPER 70S. WE
RAISED TEMPS AT CHARLESTON TOWARD THE MID 70S. SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS DISSIPATING MOVING TOWARD THE BEACHES AND
BARRIER ISLANDS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MAY REACH THE
COAST THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING.
ACROSS SE GEORGIA THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LONGER PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SOLID MID 70S PATTERN. QUITE
A FEW OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE 06Z RAP AND H3R
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SE GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH EVEN SMALL SBCAPES. WHILE K INDICES WERE PROGGED IN
THE MID TEENS AND DEEPER MOISTURE LIMITED...THERE WAS ENOUGH
EVIDENCE IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION QPF/REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT TO PAINT
SOME POPS BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT ALONG THE CONVERGENCE CORRIDOR AS
SPOTTY SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY...AT LEAST BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THERE ARE STRONG INDICATIONS FOR FOG AND STRATUS IF CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT OR REMAIN SCATTERED THIS EVENING. VARIOUS VSBY AND CIG
PROGS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG BUT THE MESOSCALE
WILL ONCE AGAIN DICTATE AS SOIL TEMPS HAVE BEEN WARMING THE PAST
FEW DAYS. IN EITHER CASE...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ABOVE THE WEDGE
INVERSION IS A STRONG INDICATOR FOR STRATUS BUILD-DOWN TRENDS. WE
MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG ALL INLAND LOCALES AND PATCHY FOG ALONG
THE COAST...LOWS IN THE 50S ALL AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL QUICKLY ERODE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE PARENT HIGH GETS WHISKED AWAY TO THE EAST. THE MORNING FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF...BUT ONCE THAT OCCURS A FAIRLY
NICE DAY IS IN STORE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AN EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE TRICKY BECAUSE THE COLDER AIR MAY NOT
OOZE INTO THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES
AND CLOUDS THICKEN. WE ARE SHOWING FAIRLY WARM TEMPS YET AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEDGE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
AND SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION
AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH
WITH UPPER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATE WEEK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ERODE ON SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER LARGE HIGH SHIFTS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PRODUCES A SURFACE LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE LOW AND BRINGS IT
STRAIGHT THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE GFS LIFTS IT NORTHEAST. WE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRUSH THE AREA ON MONDAY SO WE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SURGES
OF COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING HELP PUT A LID ON FOG
FORMATION AND BOTH KSAV AND KCHS SHOULD BE VFR TODAY THROUGH MOST
OF THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...A STRENGTHENING WEDGE
INVERSION AND COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST TONIGHT WILL
EVENTUALLY BE A DIFFERENT STORY AT THE TERMINALS AS IFR CIGS AND
PERHAPS IFR VSBYS DEVELOP DURING THE END OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. WE
HAVE A SOLID TREND IN THAT DIRECTION WITH VERY LOW END MVFR CIGS
FOR NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
WE MAINTAINED A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH A FAIRLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT
TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT INDICATIVE OF SYNOPTIC FLOW BELOW 15 KT ACROSS
ALL WATERS. SINCE A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH HAD DEVELOPED...ENOUGH
THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENTS WILL EXIST TO BUMP SPEED INTO TO 10-15
KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASING SE SWELL COMPONENT SHOWING UP AT THE PLATFORMS OFFSHORE
AND EXPECT SEAS SEAWARD FROM GRAYS REEF AND BUOY TANGO TO BUILD TO
4-5 FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST WAVE-
WATCH AND SWAN MODEL OUTPUT.
A FAIRLY WEAK ALBEIT PROLONGED NORTHEAST FETCH WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEFORE STRENGTHENING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS ON SATURDAY AS
THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...THOUGH INCREASING WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE
WEAKER WINDS WITH THE LATEST FORECAST...SEAS MAY STAY JUST BELOW 6
FT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME 6 FOOTERS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY OVER OFFSHORE PORTIONS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
553 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY RETREATING TO THE EAST WITH WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING RAPIDLY ON BACKSIDE. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS RAPIDLY
WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS ALREADY IN NORTHWEST IOWA. TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALSO STABILIZED AND EVEN RISEN WITH THE INCREASED MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS THERMAL RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
HAVE REMAINED ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE ALONG WITH LIMITED SNOW COVER
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB NICELY. OF CONCERN WITH
CLOUDS...THERE IS A BROAD EXPANSE OF LOWER CLOUDINESS ACROSS
MISSOURI THIS MORNING WHICH IS LIFTING NORTHWARD ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. BOTH RAP AND HRRR INDICATE THIS AREA OF CLOUDS
SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...HAVE
GONE WITH MUCH MORE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CLOUDS PUSH EASTWARD.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
THE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS BENIGN FOR THE
EXTENDED. TONIGHT A BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS IOWA BUT
MOISTURE IS WOEFULLY LACKING. IN FACT THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH CLOUD COVER. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
BE A WIND SHIFT LATE TONIGHT TO THE NORTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SO TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
BACK UP ON THURSDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
CLOUD COVER SO I DID NOT GO TOO WARM ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER AS DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AT THIS POINT IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MUCH MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT INTO IOWA BUT THIS
DOES BEAR WATCHING. TEMP PROFILES ARE RATHER INTERESTING AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR SURFACE TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING LATE
THURSDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WE SHOULD MIX ENOUGH TO STAY
ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST CWA. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT FAR SOUTHERN IOWA MAY SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH
THE MOISTURE MOVING UP. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS REALLY KEEP ANY OF
THIS POTENTIAL SOUTH OF IOWA ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. I DID PUT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE SAKE OF
COLLABORATION AND THE SREF AND CANADIAN DO BRING SOMETHING INTO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THAT SYSTEM THEN MOVES OFF ON FRIDAY AND TEMPS BEHIND IT ARE JUST A
BIT COOLER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED THE MODELS DEVELOP A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT IMPACTS THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE CANADIAN AND THE EURO MODELS ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEY DIG THE SHORTWAVE INTO
IOWA BUT THERE IS ALSO A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DURING THIS TIME
THAT DOES NOT EXACTLY PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN ONE THUS THEY DEVELOP
TWO AREAS OF PRECIP...ONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ONE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEAVING IOWA IN BETWEEN WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP. BY THE TIME THE SHORTWAVES DO PHASE THE SYSTEM IS EAST OF
IOWA. WE HAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING AND I SAW NO REASON TO PULL
THEM AT THIS POINT BUT THERE CERTAINLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
GREATER CHANCE THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. ALSO...TEMPS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SOUTH AND A MIX
NORTH DURING THE DAY AND A MIX SOUTH TO SNOW NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE LOW CLOUDS IN MISSOURI
ADVECTING INTO IOWA THIS MORNING. THESE MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO AFFECT KOTM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
HEADING EASTWARD. THESE LOWER CEILINGS MAY ALSO CLIP KDSM AND KALO
BRIEFLY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...ANY OTHER CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY BUT SHOULD LIGHTEN QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE STATE. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS DES MOINES IA
510 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY RETREATING TO THE EAST WITH WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING RAPIDLY ON BACKSIDE. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS RAPIDLY
WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS ALREADY IN NORTHWEST IOWA. TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALSO STABILIZED AND EVEN RISEN WITH THE INCREASED MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS THERMAL RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
HAVE REMAINED ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE ALONG WITH LIMITED SNOW COVER
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB NICELY. OF CONCERN WITH
CLOUDS...THERE IS A BROAD EXPANSE OF LOWER CLOUDINESS ACROSS
MISSOURI THIS MORNING WHICH IS LIFTING NORTHWARD ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. BOTH RAP AND HRRR INDICATE THIS AREA OF CLOUDS
SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...HAVE
GONE WITH MUCH MORE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CLOUDS PUSH EASTWARD.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
THE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS BENIGN FOR THE
EXTENDED. TONIGHT A BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS IOWA BUT
MOISTURE IS WOEFULLY LACKING. IN FACT THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH CLOUD COVER. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
BE A WIND SHIFT LATE TONIGHT TO THE NORTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SO TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
BACK UP ON THURSDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
CLOUD COVER SO I DID NOT GO TOO WARM ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER AS DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AT THIS POINT IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MUCH MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT INTO IOWA BUT THIS
DOES BEAR WATCHING. TEMP PROFILES ARE RATHER INTERESTING AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR SURFACE TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING LATE
THURSDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WE SHOULD MIX ENOUGH TO STAY
ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST CWA. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT FAR SOUTHERN IOWA MAY SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH
THE MOISTURE MOVING UP. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS REALLY KEEP ANY OF
THIS POTENTIAL SOUTH OF IOWA ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. I DID PUT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE SAKE OF
COLLABORATION AND THE SREF AND CANADIAN DO BRING SOMETHING INTO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THAT SYSTEM THEN MOVES OFF ON FRIDAY AND TEMPS BEHIND IT ARE JUST A
BIT COOLER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED THE MODELS DEVELOP A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT IMPACTS THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE CANADIAN AND THE EURO MODELS ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEY DIG THE SHORTWAVE INTO
IOWA BUT THERE IS ALSO A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DURING THIS TIME
THAT DOES NOT EXACTLY PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN ONE THUS THEY DEVELOP
TWO AREAS OF PRECIP...ONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ONE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEAVING IOWA IN BETWEEN WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP. BY THE TIME THE SHORTWAVES DO PHASE THE SYSTEM IS EAST OF
IOWA. WE HAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING AND I SAW NO REASON TO PULL
THEM AT THIS POINT BUT THERE CERTAINLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
GREATER CHANCE THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. ALSO...TEMPS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SOUTH AND A MIX
NORTH DURING THE DAY AND A MIX SOUTH TO SNOW NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014
SLY FLOW WILL BE OVER IA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER NWRN IA. HAVE
INTRODUCED LLWS INTO THE TAFS FOR KFOD AND KMCW UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BRING WIND SHIFTS...BUT WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THEM.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...MS DEC 14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
843 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
Updates right off the bat. Will have to slow down decrease in
cloud cover based on sat trends, and the RAP depiction of
persistent low level moisture. Also, areas below 1 mile vsby,
considerable 1-2 mi coverage, and drizzle. Good vsbys are
restricted to our far NW CWFA. So added that for a few hours this
morning. In fact, had a few reports of freezing drizzle as well,
that may continue a couple more hours (mid morning `ish). Grids
reflect the updates.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 252 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
Surface High pressure builds across the TN river valley today, as
the cold front that recently made passage makes its continued move
to our east. Drier columnar air in the southern Plains will
gradually work its way into/down the column in the near term. It
should lead to some breaks in the clouds today and tonight, esp
north and west.
By Wed., the front that moved east and laid its boundary back to
our south remains the focus for moisture pooling...resulting in
extensive clouds to our south and potentially bleeding into our
southern most counties Wed night. We backed off on pcpn since both
the 00Z NAM and GFS suggested the qpf with the system stays
largely near/west of the Ozarks thru 12Z Thursday.
On Thursday, this boundary lifts back to the north and enters some
overrunning pcpn. Then Thursday Night, some energy from the
southern plains makes its way into MO, so we`ll see a marked
uptick in Pops, particularly late Thursday night.
Temps remain cool but do not offer much off highs in the 40s and
lows in the 30s thru the short term. And since we hold Pops til
Thursday, all such Pops look to be liquid.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
The continuation of fast zonal flow aloft will keep a fairly active
weather pattern into the long term. General agreement among the
deterministic models and their ensemble means lends relatively high
confidence through next weekend, with more uncertainty due to model
variances thereafter.
The period will start off wet as a frontal boundary enhances across
the region in response to the approach of shortwave energy aloft.
Will carry likely to categorical PoPs Friday with high end chance to
likely Friday night. Maintained the mention of showers, but kept
thunder out of the forecast for now. However, its inclusion may be
necessary if later model runs continue to hint at the potential for
weak elevated instability in close proximity to the surface wave,
especially Friday night. Precipitation will taper off from west to
east late Friday night and Saturday as the system departs.
Dry weather is expected Saturday night and Sunday as a weak mid
level ridge builds in. More uncertainty enters the forecast early
next week as the upper flow pattern transitions to northwesterly.
Whether or not we see any precipitation in this transition is
questionable at this point given the lack of agreement among model
solutions. For now, we stuck close to the initialized blend, which
strikes a good balance between the faster ECMWF and slower GFS. This
yields a small chance of rain Sunday night and Monday.
At this time, all of the precipitation in the long term appears to
be in liquid form as forecast models suggest the thermal profile
will be too warm for wintry precipitation. Of course, this can and
often does change as model solutions gain a better handle on the
systems in question.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 252 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
MVFR cigs will be the rule, with occasional mention of IFR cigs,
thru the bulk of the morning hours. Some clearing is trying to
make its way in from the south and west, with KCGI at nearest
threat. If it does advance eastward across KPAH, it will be short-
lived, with pm hours showing redevelopnig cu anyway. A gradual
improvement from MVFR to lower VFR cigs is potentially expected.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
520 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.AVIATION...
MVFR WEST TO IFR-VLIFR FROM KTXK DOWN TO KSHV AND POINTS EAST. AS
THE COLD AIR DEEPENS A BIT WE WILL SEE MVFR WORKING EASTWARD AND
EVEN SOME VFR CIGS LATER IN THE CYCLE OUT WEST. SFC AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE NW 10-20KTS POST FROPA AND THEN BACK TO SW BY 3-4KFT AND
PICK UP SPEED A BIT. FG/DZ WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AND SLOWLY
IMPROVE 16-20Z. EXPECTING VFR/MVFR CIGS FOR MOST SITES BY SUNSET.
LIGHTWINDS AND STILL MOIST SOIL MAY BRING SOME MVFR VSBY AND CIGS
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH A MUCH BETTER DAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SCT AREAS OF -RA/-DZ CONTINUE FROM THE SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP
E TX INTO MUCH OF NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR THIS MORNING...GENERALLY
ALONG THE RESIDUAL 925MB TROUGH...WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING
ALONG THE 285-290K SURFACES PERSIST. THE 00Z NAM AND HRRR HAS
INITIALIZED WELL ON THIS -RA THIS MORNING...WITH THE 925MB TROUGH
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING...THUS ENDING THE -RA BY
MIDDAY. HAVE CARRIED OVER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING FOR
THESE AREAS...WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE LAYER BECOMES MORE SHALLOW WITH
TIME. THE 10Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS
NCNTRL TX THIS MORNING...WITH THIS RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT E INTO
THE REGION LATER TODAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF MONDAY/S COLD FROPA WILL REMAIN QUITE
SHALLOW...WITH A VERY STEEP CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT ON THE 02/00Z
KSHV RAOB...EXPECTED TO KEEP THE STRATUS SHIELD IN PLACE AND THUS
MAINTAINING THE COOL CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MAX TEMPS AND CLOSER TO THE NAM 2M TEMPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMING EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE LOW STRATUS SHIELD WILL BE A BIT DEEPER...MAINLY FROM DEEP E
TX ACROSS NCNTRL LA. SOME OF THE STRATUS MAY THIN ENOUGH FROM S TO
N BENEATH THE SFC RIDGE WEDNESDAY THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
WARMING MAINLY S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
ABUNDANT.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY OVER EXTREME NE
TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SHIFT S ACROSS OK/AR AND STALL ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N
TX/SRN OK INTO CNTRL AR. MUCH LIKE THIS PAST FRONT...THIS 2ND
FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW...BUT SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/OVERRUNNING FOR SCT -SHRA MAINLY NW OF
THE I-30 CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN N AWAY FROM
THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH THE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO MODIFY FURTHER
S ACROSS TX/LA...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS RETURNING TO MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
NEXT PROGRESSIVE BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING E ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THURSDAY AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...ENHANCING SCT -SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH QPF THAN THE
GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH BETTER RAIN COVERAGE SUCH
THAT POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY ALONG AND N OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA. HAVE ALSO RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE
FARTHER S...WITH THE -SHRA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE...AS MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF BY MID AND LATE WEEKEND.
THE GFS IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SHIFTING E
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A
BIT SLOWER /BY 12 HOURS/ AND MUCH DRIER THAN THE WETTER/FASTER
GFS. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...BEFORE TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY WITH
THE NEXT COLD FROPA THAT WILL BUILD S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 50 45 63 50 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
MLU 48 43 63 49 67 / 20 10 10 10 10
DEQ 48 39 52 45 60 / 10 10 30 30 30
TXK 49 42 57 48 62 / 10 10 20 20 20
ELD 48 41 59 46 63 / 20 10 10 20 20
TYR 49 44 61 53 67 / 0 10 20 20 20
GGG 49 44 61 52 67 / 0 10 20 20 20
LFK 53 47 67 53 69 / 10 0 10 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
434 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SCT AREAS OF -RA/-DZ CONTINUE FROM THE SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP
E TX INTO MUCH OF NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR THIS MORNING...GENERALLY
ALONG THE RESIDUAL 925MB TROUGH...WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING
ALONG THE 285-290K SURFACES PERSIST. THE 00Z NAM AND HRRR HAS
INITIALIZED WELL ON THIS -RA THIS MORNING...WITH THE 925MB TROUGH
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING...THUS ENDING THE -RA BY
MIDDAY. HAVE CARRIED OVER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING FOR
THESE AREAS...WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE LAYER BECOMES MORE SHALLOW WITH
TIME. THE 10Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS
NCNTRL TX THIS MORNING...WITH THIS RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT E INTO
THE REGION LATER TODAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF MONDAY/S COLD FROPA WILL REMAIN QUITE
SHALLOW...WITH A VERY STEEP CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT ON THE 02/00Z
KSHV RAOB...EXPECTED TO KEEP THE STRATUS SHIELD IN PLACE AND THUS
MAINTAINING THE COOL CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MAX TEMPS AND CLOSER TO THE NAM 2M TEMPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMING EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE LOW STRATUS SHIELD WILL BE A BIT DEEPER...MAINLY FROM DEEP E
TX ACROSS NCNTRL LA. SOME OF THE STRATUS MAY THIN ENOUGH FROM S TO
N BENEATH THE SFC RIDGE WEDNESDAY THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
WARMING MAINLY S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
ABUNDANT.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY OVER EXTREME NE
TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SHIFT S ACROSS OK/AR AND STALL ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N
TX/SRN OK INTO CNTRL AR. MUCH LIKE THIS PAST FRONT...THIS 2ND
FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW...BUT SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/OVERRUNNING FOR SCT -SHRA MAINLY NW OF
THE I-30 CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN N AWAY FROM
THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH THE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO MODIFY FURTHER
S ACROSS TX/LA...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS RETURNING TO MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
NEXT PROGRESSIVE BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING E ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THURSDAY AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...ENHANCING SCT -SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH QPF THAN THE
GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH BETTER RAIN COVERAGE SUCH
THAT POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY ALONG AND N OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA. HAVE ALSO RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE
FARTHER S...WITH THE -SHRA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE...AS MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF BY MID AND LATE WEEKEND.
THE GFS IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SHIFTING E
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A
BIT SLOWER /BY 12 HOURS/ AND MUCH DRIER THAN THE WETTER/FASTER
GFS. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...BEFORE TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY WITH
THE NEXT COLD FROPA THAT WILL BUILD S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 50 45 63 50 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
MLU 48 43 63 49 67 / 20 10 10 10 10
DEQ 48 39 52 45 60 / 10 10 30 30 30
TXK 49 42 57 48 62 / 10 10 20 20 20
ELD 48 41 59 46 63 / 20 10 10 20 20
TYR 49 44 61 53 67 / 0 10 20 20 20
GGG 49 44 61 52 67 / 0 10 20 20 20
LFK 53 47 67 53 69 / 10 0 10 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
539 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
AT 330 AM...CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASING/THICKENING ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...BUT WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WE DID HAVE SOME WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE SHIFTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ONTO THAT SECTION OF THE NORTH SHORE.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS DAYTIME HIGHS AND CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW. THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SPREADING INTO EC MN AND NW WI AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THE
LATEST 06Z RUN HAS SHIFTED THE BAND A BIT SOUTH...GENERALLY INTO
OUR SOUTHERN WI ZONES. MODEL QPF WOULD SUPPORT AN INCH OR SO OF
SNOW IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR. STILL...THE HRRR AND THE 4KM
NMM WRF DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS ALSO LOOKING
REASONABLY DRY...HAVE OPTED TO ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS NW WI
TODAY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WILL CARRY CHANCE/SCT
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SHORE...AND SCATTERED FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.
THE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BROUGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A BIT AS
WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS UP.
HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET WITH A
WARMING TREND.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE QUASI ZONAL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH/NEAR THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST
THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. WE DROPPED THE MENTION OF
FLURRIES FOR MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AS FORCING LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND
SOUNDINGS DRY. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING TO SOME
LAKE SNOW SNOW. DELTA-T VALUES ARE NOT THAT HIGH...SO ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY AS THIS WAVE BRUSHES THE
REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW-MID LEVELS. WE MAY NEED TO ADD A POP
OR FLURRIES IF MORE MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
A STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIXTURE TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TWENTIES
THURSDAY...THEN WARM INTO THE UPPER TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES ON
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES MONDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO MAINLY THE KHYR AREA. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. MORE MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND GRADUALLY VEER TO W/SW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 17 5 16 3 / 20 10 0 0
INL 12 0 10 -9 / 20 10 10 0
BRD 18 5 16 3 / 20 10 0 0
HYR 20 5 18 0 / 30 20 0 0
ASX 21 9 18 3 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
933 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
ON GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. NO
CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 15
UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...RESULTING IN WEAK RADAR RETURNS ALONG TO NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY INCLUDING OVER MY SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. CIGS LOWERING
FROM 4-6K AGL SO POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING. OBSERVING
SITES THOUGH HAVE NOT REPORTED ANYTHING AND HAVE NOT SEEN ANYTHING
ON AREA WEBCAMS THUS FAR. STILL...WITH THE CIGS THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS
AM...LEANING ON THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. ZERO IMPACTS.
WEAK CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WARMER SOME LOCATIONS
BUT REMAIN COLD RANGING FROM 10 ABOVE NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. MOST MODELS
ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THE CAA TODAY OVER MY
NORTH...WHICH WAS ADDED INTO THE FORECAST LAST EVENING...SO SEE
NO REASON TO REMOVE.
MAINLY DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS. LOWS GENERALLY 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
BROAD PACIFIC RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL LEAD
TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
POSITION OF A SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY AFFECTING NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GEM/ECMWF ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE...WHEREAS THE GFS
IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTIONS AND KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW CHANCES NEAR THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION SUNDAY.
COOLER AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 12Z PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
637 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...RESULTING IN WEAK RADAR RETURNS ALONG TO NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY INCLUDING OVER MY SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. CIGS LOWERING
FROM 4-6K AGL SO POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING. OBSERVING
SITES THOUGH HAVE NOT REPORTED ANYTHING AND HAVE NOT SEEN ANYTHING
ON AREA WEBCAMS THUS FAR. STILL...WITH THE CIGS THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS
AM...LEANING ON THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. ZERO IMPACTS.
WEAK CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WARMER SOME LOCATIONS
BUT REMAIN COLD RANGING FROM 10 ABOVE NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. MOST MODELS
ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THE CAA TODAY OVER MY
NORTH...WHICH WAS ADDED INTO THE FORECAST LAST EVENING...SO SEE
NO REASON TO REMOVE.
MAINLY DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS. LOWS GENERALLY 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
BROAD PACIFIC RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL LEAD
TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
POSITION OF A SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY AFFECTING NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GEM/ECMWF ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE...WHEREAS THE GFS
IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTIONS AND KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW CHANCES NEAR THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION SUNDAY.
COOLER AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SOUTH ARE
FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 12Z
PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN THIS MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP. A AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST HAS SET UP FOR THE MORNING...WITH
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN SEVERAL IMPORTANT FACTORS. THE FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT HAS BEEN MAINTAINED...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IS NOT PARTICULARLY
HIGH.
A COLD AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE HAS BOTTOMED OUT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA BELOW FREEZING. A FEW SPOTS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER REMAIN IN THE 32-35 DEGREE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO CURRENT VALUES
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...WHEN A SLOW INCREASE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN.
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND HAS ALREADY BEGUN IN THE 925MB-800MB
LAYER...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS
HELPING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...AND THE
EFFECTIVENESS OF THIS FORCING IS DUBIOUS AT BEST. THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AT 700MB THAT IS MOVING INTO THE REGION...BUT THIS
WAVE IS UNDERGOING A DAMPENING OF AMPLITUDE. ALSO...700MB IS NEAR
THE TOP OF THE EXPECTED SOMEWHAT-SHALLOW LAYER OF NEAR-SATURATION
(GENERALLY AT AND BELOW 8KFT BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS). EVEN ADDED
TOGETHER...IT IS HARD TO FIND SIGNIFICANT FORCING...AND IT IS NO
SURPRISE THAT MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS GENERALLY LIGHT AND SCATTERED.
THIS ALSO MATCHES CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WITH ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED PATCHES OF ECHOES ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST
AREA AND UPSTREAM. HRRR/RAP RUNS SUGGEST A MAXIMIZATION OF
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE NEAR 15Z...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN
THE EASTERN (AND POSSIBLY NORTHEASTERN) SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ONLY THE 06Z NAM12 SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OF MORE THAN ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...AND ITS DEWPOINT
INITIALIZATION WAS SEVERAL DEGREES TOO HIGH.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ALSO A CAUSE FOR CONCERN...WITH WIDE
SPREAD IN THE EXPECTED TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF NEAR-SURFACE
WARMING. SREF PLUMES SHOW OVER 10 DEGREES OF SPREAD AT
21Z...STRADDLING EITHER SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK. THE LOW-LEVEL
ADVECTION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND WITH CLOUDS IN
PLACE...INSOLATION WILL NOT ADD MUCH TO THE WARMING EITHER. THE
WHOLE CWA SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THIS IS
UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN QUICKLY. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 20S...SATURATION STILL NEEDS TO OCCUR...AND THIS MAY ALSO
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.
ULTIMATELY...WHAT IS EXPECTED IS THAT OBSERVED RADAR ECHOES WILL
SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN NOW AND
15Z. HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THERE COULD BE A FEW PATCHES OF RESPECTABLE
PRECIPITATION...PRODUCING SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. SOME LOCATIONS MAY ONLY END UP UNDER LIGHT ECHOES
(TRACE AMOUNTS). NEAR ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...LIGHT SLEET COULD
OCCUR...AS THE WARM LAYER ALOFT ONLY SLIGHTLY CROSSES THE FREEZING
MARK...AND NEAR-SURFACE SATURATION STILL OCCURS. AFTER
THAT...SOUNDINGS WILL STRONGLY FAVOR FREEZING RAIN UNTIL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. BASED ON THE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE PROFILES...THE ADVISORY TIMING STILL LOOKED TO BE
ALIGNED NICELY. THE ONLY QUESTION IS ACTUALLY GETTING
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR...AND IT MAY END UP THAT ISSUES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY BAD IN MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THE ZERO-IMPACT BEST-CASE SCENARIO TO REMOVE ANY
OF THE ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT OCCURS...ANOTHER PUSH OF
COLD AND DRY AIR WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE BOUNDARY IS NOW EXPECTED
TO REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE ILN CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SOME OF THE WARMER MODELS ALLOW FOR WARMING IN SOUTHERN OHIO
AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE FORECAST
WILL ALLOW FOR THIS POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
THERE.
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. A WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE ILN CWA...MEANING THAT ATTENTION FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS MORE ON FRIDAY. THIS IS AN ADJUSTMENT
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED
SLOWER WITH THE RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE OHIO VALLEY. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE SLOWER ONSET MEANS THAT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES WERE LESS OF AN ISSUE WITH THIS SET OF
GRIDS...BUT SOME MIX WITH SNOW (OR POSSIBLY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION) COULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL (MORE LIKELY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA).
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF
AND 12Z CMC ARE STRONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND
LINGER CHANCE POPS THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRYING WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST TO A POSITION NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER
WITH TIME ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ALOFT. AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK LIFT IN THE DEVELOPING WARM...MOIST PATTERN
ALOFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AT
THE SURFACE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. RIGHT NOW...THINKING THE PCPN WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO RESTRICT VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL EVENTUALLY GET PULLED/ADVECTED
NORTH THAN NORTHEAST THROUGH TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
CEILINGS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. PCPN
WILL EXIT THE REGION AFTER 18Z AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH
THE DISTURBANCE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST.
FOR TONIGHT...REGION SHOULD BE STUCK IN THE LOW LEVEL MOIST...WAA
PATTERN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE IFR CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ053>056-060>065-073-074.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ070>072-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ091>093.
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
INZ058-059.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ066-
073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
522 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MVFR CIGS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE
AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS KEEP THE AREA TERMINALS SOCKED IN THROUGH
THE DAY WITH LOWER END MVFR CIGS...THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND
SREF ALONG WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE ALL SHOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE TAKEN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR THIS TAF
PACKAGE WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO HIGH END MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT CIGS TO DROP AGAIN TO LOW
END MVFR OR HIGH END IFR. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH FOR MOST
OF TODAY BUT START TO TURN OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
TREADWAY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
TEXAS BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF SHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH.
AREA SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SHOWED A STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION WITH A
SATURATED LAYER ABOVE WHICH WAS KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY. DURING THIS
PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND FLATTEN BRINGING
ZONAL FLOW OVER TEXAS. BELOW THIS RIDGE MOIST ISENTROPIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SUFFICIENT LIFT TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AFTER A CHILLY DAY TODAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN MOIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN TO THE EAST THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THIS WILL MEAN A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY CONTINUING
RAIN CHANCES. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 53 48 68 55 69 / - - - 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 53 47 68 54 70 / - - - 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 54 49 68 55 71 / - - - 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 52 46 65 53 66 / - - - 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 55 47 66 52 67 / - - - 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 51 47 66 53 68 / - - - 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 53 47 64 54 69 / - - - 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 48 67 54 70 / - - - 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 54 50 70 56 71 / - 10 10 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 54 50 66 57 70 / - - - 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 54 49 67 57 71 / - - - 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
931 AM MST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES...CLOUDINESS...AND CHANCES OF OFF AND ON LIGHT
SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE WESTERN STATES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST IR/VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OVERCAST SKIES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS A DEEP
TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW NOW NEAR 35N/135W. A CLEARLY DEFINED
TOP DOWN MOISTENING PROCESS IS UNDERWAY WITH THE 12Z YUMA SOUNDING
SHOWING A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 600 MB AND ABOUT 0.7
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN
THE 40S FROM THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND MAINLY IN THE 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. RADAR
IMAGERY IS STILL FAIRLY QUIET IN OUR CWA WITH JUST A FEW POCKETS OF
VIRGA...BUT EXPECT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PICKUP
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS FAVORABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT
PROVIDING INCREASED LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
AREA. NOTE THAT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE HRRR AND RUC13 ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING SHOWERS EASTWARD INTO THE PHOENIX AREA TONIGHT
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY DRY NAM12 FOR EXAMPLE. CURRENT THINKING
IS THE NAM12 IS TOO DRY AND LEANING TOWARDS THE WETTER SOLUTIONS.
BELIEVE OUR CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND LOOKS IN GOOD
SHAPE...SO NO UPDATES NEEDED DAT THIS TIME. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOLID BAND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STRETCHED FROM THE EAST CENTRAL
PACIFIC WELL INTO CA...AZ AND UT THIS MORNING PER IR/WV IMAGERY. MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DECKS FROM 8KFT TO 20KFT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO
FAR OVER SOME OF THE SOUTHERN CA AIRFIELDS WITH SOME OF THE THICKER
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY PICKED UP ON AREA RADARS. LARGE
AREA OF WEAKENING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO DRAW THIS
MOISTURE FURTHER INTO CA TODAY. CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING
ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPS
MILD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE AM TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING
OFF WARMER...IN SOME LOCALES BY 6 TO 8 DEGREES...THICK CLOUD COVER
TODAY SHOULD LIMIT THE TOP END OF THE DIURNAL CURVE. INCREASING
LIGHT SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST ZONES WILL ALLOW
FOR UPPER 60 TO LOW 70 DEGREE READINGS AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO LIMIT THE DIURNAL CURVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ WITH LOW 70S
POSSIBLE FOR PHX AND SURROUNDING LOWER DESERTS.
WHILE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...SOME INCREASED SHORT TERM MODEL AGREEMENT
WARRANTED SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SYNOPTICALLY
SPEAKING...WILL WATCH THE UPPER LOW WEAKEN OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST
WHILE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE EXHAUSTED OVER THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CA. ELEVATED MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...NEARLY SATURATING FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE WESTERN
FORECAST ZONES...WILL EXPAND INTO SOUTHEAST CA TODAY. STILL
EXPECTING THE BEST WINDOW FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY TO BEGIN TODAY AND
LAST THROUGH THURSDAY AREAWIDE AND COULD EVEN BROKEN DOWN FURTHER BY
WHAT COULD BE LOOKED AT AS THREE POTENTIAL WAVES/ROUNDS OF PRECIP
ACTIVITY.
THE FIRST COMES WITH THE INITIAL EXPANSION OF THE ELEVATED MOISTURE
PLUME FURTHER INTO THE AREA TODAY. WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
ORIENTATION AND SUBTLE 300MB JET SUPPORT (75-80KTS) NOSING OVER THE
SANTA ROSA...SAN JACINTO AND SAN BERNARDINO MTNS. LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY...HEAVIER EXPECTED ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CA
FORECAST ZONES. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS IN TERMS OF LAPSE RATES AND
LIFT REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE
SPOTTY...CERTAINLY SO THE LOWER IN ELEVATION YOU GO INTO THE DESERTS
AND TOWARDS THE CO RIVER VALLEY. THE FIRST WAVE WILL RESULT
GENERALLY IN A BRUSHPASS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS INTO THE
EVENING...WITH VIRGA AND THICKENING CLOUDS THE MAJORITY RESULT.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...TRACE TO VERY LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER DESERT LOCALES. DELIBERATELY WENT
WITH COVERAGE WORDING IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TODAY...DESCRIPTORS LIKE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FITTING THIS ROUND OF POTENTIAL PRECIP.
THE PACIFIC LOW WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AS THE
CIRCULATION CENTER LIFTS INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY OFF THE MAIN LOW WILL SYNC WITH
A VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP WELL
WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA OVER THE PACIFIC. IR/WV IMAGERY SHOW THIS
FEATURE SUPPORTING SOME COOLER...POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE...CLOUD TOPS AS
IT WAS MOVING TO THE E-NE. THESE ELEMENTS COMBINED WITH A IMPROVING
MOISTURE PROFILE OVER AZ...WITH POTENTIAL PWATS OVER AN INCH IN SOME
LOCALES...INTRODUCE THE SECOND POTENTIAL WAVE OF PRECIP ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS/EC FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ROUND COULD HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BY THE
THURSDAY AM COMMUTE. ANY LINGERING DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CLEAR TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...DRYING CONDITIONS OUT FOR FRIDAY
WHILE KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD.
BEYOND FRIDAY...MODEL CONFIDENCE HAS TAKEN ANOTHER NOTICEABLE DIVE.
WHAT COULD STILL BE THE POTENTIAL THIRD WAVE OF PRECIP IN THE FORM
OF A FAST MOVING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE HAS WIDELY VARYING FORECAST AND
PRECIP SOLNS IN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM SUITES. FORECAST SOLNS AND TIMING
PHASE FURTHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURE AND POP
FORECASTS WERE BLENDED OF CONSENSUS AND CLIMO GUIDANCE. WE WILL
STILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES SATURDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OPEN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CIGS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT BASE HEIGHTS FALLING TO AROUND 7K FT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR CIGS FALLING TO THE 6K FT
THRESHOLD WILL BE LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VIRGA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENSIVE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW ISOLD SHRA REACHING THE SFC AROUND CNTRL ARIZONA
TERMINALS. SFC WINDS WILL STAY VERY LIGHT...AND COULD REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR EXTENDED TIME PERIODS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
CIGS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT EXTENSIVE VIRGA AND EVENTUALLY SCT SHRA WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE AREA...HOWEVER TIMING OF MORE EXPANSIVE SHRA
AND LOWEST CIG AGL ARE MORE UNCERTAIN. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VICINITY
MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING AS SHRA MAY BE MORE SHORT DURATION/LOWER
IMPACT...AND KEPT CIGS AOA 6F FT BASED ON FORECAST DATA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE DISTRICT. THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL YIELD THE BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN...THOUGH
COVERAGE OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OVER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE
LIMITED. WITH WIDESPREAD EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY...AFTERNOON
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONLY FALL INTO A 30-50 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN TOWARDS A 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND THIS OVERALL TIME
FRAME WILL OFFER VERY LOW FIRE DANGER.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...GL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
322 PM MST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MST TUE DEC 2 2014
BIG RECOVERY TODAY WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES THAT WARMED EVEN
MORE THAN ANTICIPATED WITH A SOMEWHAT DELAYED ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDINESS FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM NOW HITTING THE WEST COAST.
WINDS HAVE BEEN INTERESTING WITH DIA STAYING RATHER QUIET WHILE
WESTERLIES PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...LOOKS LIKE A LEE
SIDE CYCLONE DEVELOPED RIGHT OVER THE AIRPORT. TOMORROW WILL BE
MUCH COOLER AGAIN AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD
TO OUR EAST WITH THE OVERALL TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS. AN
INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A REENFORCEMENT
OF COLDER AIR TONIGHT AS THE MAIN HIGH PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD. MAIN
QUESTION FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE HOURS IS IF THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FOG AND LOWER CEILINGS.
SOMEWHAT OF A MIXED MESSAGE FROM THE MODELS...LATEST RAP AND HRRR
RUNS DO NOT SHOW ANY LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG WHILE GOESR PROVING
GROUND SYNTHETIC IMAGERY KEEPS THE LOWER CLOUD FARTHER NORTH. SREF
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE IN THE MID RANGE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT FOG
OUT OF THE GRIDS BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE NEXT
SHIFT.
FOR TOMORROW WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING WELL OFF TO OUR EAST
THE FLOW WILL QUICKLY TURN AROUND TO SOUTHERLY ON THE PLAINS AND
SHOULD SET UP A NICE DENVER CYCLONE. THIS COULD KEEP ANY LOWER CLOUDINESS
IN LONGER FROM BOULDER THROUGH DENVER COUNTIES...OTHERWISE DO
EXPECT A GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ON THE PLAINS WITH LOTS OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CALIFORNIA SYSTEM. THAT SYSTEM WEAKENS
RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT ONTO THE PLAINS. IN THE
MOUNTAINS HAVE DELAYED THE START OF ANY SNOW A BIT OVERNIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES TOMORROW FOR A 1 TO 4 INCH TYPE
SNOW...MAYBE MORE IN SOME AREAS BUT OVERALL NOT A GREAT FLOW
PATTERN AND NOT VERY UNSTABLE EITHER SO AT LEAST THROUGH TOMORROW
NOT A LOT OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MST TUE DEC 2 2014
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
A PERIOD OF SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL
DECREASING LATER IN THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW. EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH ONLY
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL EFFECT
ZONE 31 AND HIGHER AREAS OF ZONE 33.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY WESTERLY ON THURSDAY WHILE A SMALL
RIPPLE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MOISTURE
DEPTH WILL REMAIN SHALLOW BUT A BRIEF BUMP UP ON POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT.
THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
DRYING IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE NEXT
TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MUCH
OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO SO ONLY LOW
POPS NEEDED IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARMER
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAYBE ONLY SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT. DRY AND WARMER AGAIN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS INTO COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MST TUE DEC 2 2014
WINDS HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN TRICKY TODAY WITH DIA APPARENTLY RIGHT
BENEATH A SMALLER SCALE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TODAY DEVELOPING IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SURGE OF COOLER AIR NOW MOVING INTO THE
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. A REENFORCING SURGE WILL COME IN LATER
TONIGHT. STILL TRICKY AS TO HOW LOW THE CEILING GETS AS WELL AS
CHANCE OF SOME FOG AS WE GET TO VERY LATE TONIGHT FOR DIA AND FOR
THAT MATTER BJC AND APA. DENVER CYCLONE FLOW TOMORROW WILL LIKELY
MEAN ANOTHER DAY OF TRICKY WINDS AT DIA.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SZOKE
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...SZOKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
108 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN. MUCH MILDER WEATHER BRIEFLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY BEGINS A TREND TOWARDS COLDER BUT DRY CONDITIONS. LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND WITH A
POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING ACROSS SNE BUT LAPS SOUNDINGS SONTINUE TO
SHOW VERY DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. RAP MOISTENS/SATURATES
THIS LAYER 21-23Z FROM BDL-PVD SO CURRENT FORECAST TIMING APPEARS
ON TRACK. LIGHT SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP WILL DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON
FROM N CT TO S RI WITH MAINLY RAIN ALONG THE S COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO DELAY ONSET OF HIGHER POPS.
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AND
MODELS SUGGEST THE MOISTENING/SATURATION OF THIS LAYER DOES NOT
OCCUR UNTIL 21Z FROM BDL TO RI COAST THEN SLOWLY SPREADING N INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE ACROSS SW NEW ENG INTO S RI WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE DAY NORTH OF THE PIKE.
PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW/SLEET MIX IN THE INTERIOR AND
RAIN/SLEET NEAR THE S COAST. MID LEVEL WARMING WILL BE ADVANCING
NORTH QUICKLY WHICH WILL LIMIT DURATION OF SNOW THIS EVENING WITH
MORE OF A SLEET/FZRA PROBLEM IN THE INTERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
*** WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT...
THE CENTRAL ISSUE WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
THERMAL PROFILES. NAM AND SREF SOLUTIONS ARE QUICKER TO WARM THE
OVERALL COLUMN THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF. ALL GUIDANCE DOES
EVENTUALLY BRING LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING HEADING
INTO WEDNESDAY. THUS...EXPECTING ALL WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL PLACE ADDITIONAL IMPORTANCE ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR WHICH STAYS ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MA
AND SOUTHERN NH.
AT THIS POINT...THINKING THERE IS A SUFFICIENT CONCERN FOR A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. DECIDED TO
START THIS ADVISORY BEFORE THE START OF ANY PRECIPITATION. AM NOT
THINKING WE WILL ACHIEVE THE SNOWFALL CRITERION BY ITSELF.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL HAVE ALLOWED MOST AREAS TO HAVE WARMED
ABOVE FREEZING BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED POCKETS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT THROUGH MID MORNING
ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDEST LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE TIME FROM LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WILL END UP DRY...OTHER THAN A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO.
THIS A RESULT OF BETTER LIFT/DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE DISTANT
INTERIOR. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...850 TEMPS AROUND
+6C AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S DESPITE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
* GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER THU AND FRI BUT DRY
* RAIN/WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE
OVERALL...00Z MODEL DATA IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE OF COURSE DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING BUT
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW COLDER TEMPERATURES
TO FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
THAN PASSES TO THE NORTH ALLOWING COLD AIR TO DRAIN DOWN AT THE
SURFACE RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND RAIN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
DESPITE THE MODEL AGREEMENT...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE WEEKEND STORM GIVEN THE TIME FRAME AS WELL AS THE SENSITIVE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. A DEGREE OR TWO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE CAN
CHANGE THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS HINT AT A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS EARLY IN
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRYING TREND AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE
FRONT...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS MAY KEEP THEM FROM
BOTTOMING OUT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR DRAINAGE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OVER THESE TWO DAYS. STILL...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
DECEMBER.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THIS PERIOD IS MOST UNCERTAIN WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BOTH A COLD FRONT AND A COASTAL STORM IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN NORTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THEN MODELS HAVE A FEW TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES
WITH A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW THAT COULD BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THIS COULD BE
A WINTRY MIX...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE COLDER AIR
DRAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION AND WARMER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS. ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS
WEEKENDS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THROUGH 00Z...LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
SNOW/MIXED PRECIP/RAIN DEVELOPS 22-00Z FROM BDL/BAF TO CAPE COD.
NORTHERN TERMINALS DRY THROUGH 00Z.
TONIGHT...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
OF PRECIP TRANSITION. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS WINTRY MIX
EXPANDS NORTH ACROSS SNE. PTYPE MAINLY RAIN S COAST TERMINALS WITH
SNOW TRANSITIONING TO PL/FZRA THEN RA INTERIOR. MINOR SNOW/ICE
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY INTERIOR. ALL INTERIOR LOCATIONS SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z WITH RAIN DOMINANT PTYPE. SE WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ON CAPE/ISLANDS.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. STEADY RAIN LIFTS TO THE NORTH IN THE MORNING BUT AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY. GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH G25-30 KT LIKELY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND
TYPE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR SLEET POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT
ONSET. NO FZRA EXPECTED.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND
TYPE. SNOW/SLEET AT ONSET WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA LIKELY THIS
EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR.
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO
MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH RAIN SHOWERS SE AND
POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX NW WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...WINDS TURN EASTERLY WITH MAX GUSTS UP TO 25 KT SHIFTING
TO SOUTHERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS CONTINUE OVER OPEN
WATERS. FOR SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AM EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A TIME...ONLY TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY. DECIDED TO JUST MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORIES FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...RATHER THAN DROPPING THE
CURRENT ADVISORIES...JUST TO PUT THEM BACK IN PLACE LATER TODAY.
AFTER CONSIDERING THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...DECIDED TO CANCEL THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY EARLY.
TONIGHT...VEERING WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. EXPECTED INVERSION WILL
LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF GUSTS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG.
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY NECESSARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AS HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS.
SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY BUILD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002-
003-008-009.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ011-
015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
413 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...
256 PM CST
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE THEME OF THE FORECAST IS CONTINUED SEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY...WITH PERIODS OF NEAR TO...FOR DECEMBER...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DRAPED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL USA. OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS IS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO MN/WI. A
FEW ADDITIONAL TROUGHS LIE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND OFF THE TIP
OF ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS IN NEW ENGLAND
WHILE WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER OUR AREA SW TO THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
STRATUS IS SURGING NORTHWARD AS PRESSURE LOWERS TO THE
NORTH...THOUGH THERE IS A BACK EDGE APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE PLAINS. THE ENERGY
AT THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST
TODAY. THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM...PW`S UNDER 0.3 IN...WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW TO OUR
NORTH. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL SLIDE TO
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW...BUT CONVERGENCE ON THE FRONT IS WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF THIS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED
EAST QUICKLY WITH APPROACH OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME MID AND HIGHER CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH THE TROUGH.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN QUITE A BIT MORE NEAR JAMES BAY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT BY THIS TIME THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE EAST OF
OUR AREA. WE GET A BRIEF REINFORCING SHOT OF SLIGHTLY COLDER
AIR...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AFTER ANY LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST ERODES. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A CRISP AND DRY NIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS SLOWLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS
ZONAL AGAIN. THE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DISSOLVES...BUT
SOME WEAK ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT RAPIDLY MOVES EASTWARD.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY DOES NOT GET GOING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MORE SO FRIDAY...SO REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR
THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT COINCIDES WITH MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF CONTINUES A CONSISTENT TREND OF PRECIP
REMAINING SOUTH OF I-80. KEPT SOME SMALL POPS NORTH WITH THE GFS
HOLDING ONTO SOME PRECIP...BUT FEEL THAT MUCH OF THIS WILL SLIDE BY
TO THE SOUTH AS WE HANG ONTO A DRIER NE FLOW.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
256 PM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
IT APPEARS TO BE A BENIGN AND MILDER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. QUIET
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT COOLER...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOMEWHAT EAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OFF IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPS
THE CANADIAN TROUGH AT BAY...AND THEREFORE ALLOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CURRENTLY OFF THE ALASKA COAST TO PUSH SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES IN A CLIPPER-LIKE MANNER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS
ARE MIXED AS TO WHETHER WE GET ANY PRECIP WITH THIS WITH THE
"WETTER" GFS JUST GRAZING THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN TURNING TO
POSSIBLY SNOW...WHILE THE EC IS DRY WITH THE ENERGY HEADING NORTH.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO AMPLIFY SOME BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...BUT
NOT UNTIL AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW TO START
THE WEEK. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL ALLOW A RIDGE IN THE WEST TO MAKE
SOME HEADWAY EASTWARD BUT THIS APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED A LITTLE BIT.
MODELS HAVE MODERATE PREDICTABILITY ON THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME
WHICH WOULD BRING DRY AND MILDER WEATHER.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
THE MVFR STRATOCU DECK IS HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING ORD/DPA WITH
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME EROSION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK. ALSO...LATEST SFC OBS UPSTREAM INDICATING
A MORE LAYERED CLOUD PROFILE WITH SCT018 UNDER AN OVC LOW END VFR
DECK. SO...HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON CLOUD COVER AT ORD/DPA TO A
TEMPO MVFR. MDW/RFD/GYY SHOULD REMAIN PREVAILING MVFR AS PER THE
GOING FORECAST...THOUGH TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT IS A LITTLE LESS
CERTAIN...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE 06Z TIMING FOR IMPROVEMENT TO
PREVAILING VFR AT ALL SITES...WITH CONTINUED SW WINDS ARND 10 KT.
STILL ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEST WINDS ARND 10 KT.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AT ORD.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR MVFR. EAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE FOR MVFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW AND IFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW AND IFR CONDS EARLY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
123 PM CST
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...WITH HIGHEST SPEEDS TO 30 KT BEING OBSERVED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE SAME SPEEDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TONIGHT BUT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THIS TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SPEEDS WILL BRIEFLY COME DOWN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THIS TROUGH...BUT WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD
OF TO 30 KT WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ745...10 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
310 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
20z/2pm surface analysis shows ridge axis extending from the Great
Lakes to Texas. Despite presence of high pressure, low-level
moisture remains trapped beneath a strong subsidence inversion
evident on latest LAPS soundings, which has resulted in overcast
conditions across central Illinois this afternoon. Visible
satellite imagery shows back edge of clouds slowly eroding across
central Missouri, with satellite timing tools bringing the clearing
into the western KILX CWA by mid-evening. Latest HRRR has a similar
trend, suggesting clearing skies from west to east by mid to late
evening. Based on satellite trends and expected southwesterly
return flow on the back side of the departing high, think skies will
become mostly clear across locations along/northwest of a
Taylorville to Champaign line by midnight. Further southeast, cloud
cover will be much slower to exit, with soundings indicating mostly
cloudy skies through the entire night across the far E/SE CWA. Due
to the initial cloud cover and a light southwesterly wind, have gone
2 to 3 degrees above MAV guidance for lows tonight, with readings
ranging from the lower 20s far northwest around Galesburg to the
lower 30s far southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
Morning upper air and moisture channel satellite data shows minor
upper wave moving east across the northern US, approaching Great
Lakes. This system will drag a weak cold front into IL region on
early on Wednesday, coming through dry and bringing high pressure in
behind it.
Main system to affect area is currently off the west coast. Forecast
models bring a wave east from the offshore low, it tracking east
over the western state through day Thursday. southerly low level
flow expected to develop Thursday in response to the system exiting
the Rockies. Overrunning flow will develop precipitation by late
Thursday, but will not reach region till Thursday night, so dropped
Thursday pcpn. Pops spreading into the CWA Thursday night. With
temperature though near freezing, possibly some freezing rain in the
central and north central parts of IL Thursday night, before
temperatures rise Friday morning with the bulk of pcpn on Friday and
Friday night.
Track of the developing surface low is still a little uncertain, as
GFS brings low across KY and EUR across northern AL. Pcpn to
gradually pull out on Saturday, and will be faster if EUR solution
is right.
Weak northern stream system to again move over Great Lakes on
Monday, but have kept forecast dry at this time, again due to the
differences in the models on track and moisture.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
Large area of low cloudiness remains trapped beneath a strong
subsidence inversion late this morning. Ceilings are currently
high IFR/low MVFR, but should improve into the MVFR category
across the board within the next hour or two.
Main aviation concerns will be ceiling heights initially, then
timing of clearing later this evening. Based on latest obs, have
started out with IFR ceilings at all terminals except KPIA. Given
upstream trends, have raised ceilings to MVFR at the remaining TAF
sites between 19z and 20z. Latest HRRR shows clearing line
currently over northwest Missouri advancing steadily eastward this
afternoon, reaching the Illinois River Valley by around 00z.
Meanwhile, satellite timing tools are slightly slower, indicating
clearing may not reach the far western KILX CWA until around 02z.
Will therefore maintain the previous forecast, with clearing
arriving at KPIA by 03z, then further east to KCMI by 06z. After
that, clear skies and light southwesterly winds are anticipated
through Wednesday morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
124 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...
200 AM CST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO COMMENCE.
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASINGLY CLOUDINESS
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ALONG WITH THE COLD START SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
FROM GETTING TOO TERRIBLY MILD...THOUGH STILL WARMER THAN MONDAY.
CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST WINDS STAYING UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH
TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OF TEMPS...BUT THAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
CANCELLED OUT BY FAR MORE SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
200 AM CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER HIGH PRESSURE
SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WE`VE BEEN
WATCHING IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FOR DAYS NOW LOOKS TO BE MORE
OF A LATE THURS NIGHT OR FRIDAY SYSTEM NOW AND STILL GENERALLY
SOUTH OF OUR CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED THE MODEL BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT IF
ANY TYPE PRECIP EVENT. WEEKEND STILL LOOKING DRY WITH NEAR-TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH THE PARALLEL GFS THE MOST BULLISH IN
WARMING TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF DROPS A COLD FRONT ACROSS AREA MONDAY COOLING TEMPS OFF.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER QUEBEC ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SW ARND 10
KT. MAY SEE A FEW OCNL GUSTS BUT EXPECTING THEM TO SUBSIDE AS THE
MVFR CIGS PUSH NORTH. THE MVFR CIGS ARE STEADILY MOVING NORTH SO
HAVE MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. CIGS ARE FALLING TO LOW END
MVFR TO IFR DOWNSTATE BUT THINKING THE LOWER STUFF WILL STAY SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS. THE MOISTURE AND MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH EAST
AROUND 06Z LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED SW WINDS ARND
10 KT. SKIES CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WEST WINDS ARND 10 KT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR MVFR. EAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE FOR MVFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW AND IFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW AND IFR CONDS EARLY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
123 PM CST
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...WITH HIGHEST SPEEDS TO 30 KT BEING OBSERVED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE SAME SPEEDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TONIGHT BUT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THIS TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SPEEDS WILL BRIEFLY COME DOWN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THIS TROUGH...BUT WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD
OF TO 30 KT WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1154 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
Elongated high pressure ridge stretching from southeastern Canada
back to the western Gulf Coast this morning. Weak winds across the
area picking up an increasingly southern component as the ridge
shifts eastward. Llvl moisture trapped under a strong inversion
has spread cloud cover across the area. Low clouds expected to
persist through the evening hours according to the NAM and HRRR,
and given the strength of the inversion on ILX and SGF soundings
this morning...have maintained the cloud cover through the day.
Hourly forecast doing well and no updates are anticipated at this
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
Blanket of low/mid clouds over central and southern parts of IL/MO
are steadily lifting northward toward I-72 in central IL early
this morning and models show these clouds lifting across the rest
of central IL during this morning. These clouds then appear to
hang around into tonight especially over eastern IL and decrease
from west to east later tonight into Wed morning. Highs today
generally in the 30s with lower 30s nw of the IL river and
Lawrenceville approaching 40F. So trended forecast today cloudier
and a bit cooler. Strong 1043 mb arctic high pressure over
southern Quebec was ridging sw into northern IL and MO and
creating a strong inversion over region which will trap the low
clouds.
Another Canadian high pressure over the northern Rockies will
settle into the Midwest Wed afternoon and continue dry weather
over central/se IL through at least Wed night. More sunshine
expected Wed with low clouds lingering longest in southeast IL.
Lows tonight range from lower 20s over the IL river valley to near
30F se of I-70. A bit milder highs Wed with more sunshine range
from mid 30s from Peoria north to the lower 40s south of I-72.
Clouds increase later Wed night from the sw with lows around 20F
northern counties and mid to upper 20s in southeast IL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
00Z models continue to trend slower with arriving of over running
precipitation from frontal boundary south of IL on Thu/Fri and
Canadian high pressure drifting east across the Great Lakes region.
Have trimmed back pops to just slight chance sw areas Thu with
light freezing rain and sleet in morning and just light rain Thu
afternoon. NE areas should stay dry but cloud up too. Highs Thu in
the mid to upper 30s with Lawrenceville around 40F. Have
increasing chances of precipitation during Thu night and
especially Friday with likely chances of rain in southeast IL
Friday. Chance of light freezing rain/sleet north of I-72 Thu
night though pops are slight northern counties and qpf amounts
very light then if at all. Increase rain chances Fri night
especially in southeast IL as low pressure ejects ne from the
southern plains into mid TN by dawn Sat. Lingered slight chance of
light rain in southeast IL Sat morning then dry the rest of the
weekend. Temps modify to highs in the low to mid 40s from Fri-Mon.
Have slight chance of light precipitation early next work week
with cold front pressing se into region with northern areas
possibly getting a mix of light precipitation. Cooler temps next
Tue.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
Large area of low cloudiness remains trapped beneath a strong
subsidence inversion late this morning. Ceilings are currently
high IFR/low MVFR, but should improve into the MVFR category
across the board within the next hour or two.
Main aviation concerns will be ceiling heights initially, then
timing of clearing later this evening. Based on latest obs, have
started out with IFR ceilings at all terminals except KPIA. Given
upstream trends, have raised ceilings to MVFR at the remaining TAF
sites between 19z and 20z. Latest HRRR shows clearing line
currently over northwest Missouri advancing steadily eastward this
afternoon, reaching the Illinois River Valley by around 00z.
Meanwhile, satellite timing tools are slightly slower, indicating
clearing may not reach the far western KILX CWA until around 02z.
Will therefore maintain the previous forecast, with clearing
arriving at KPIA by 03z, then further east to KCMI by 06z. After
that, clear skies and light southwesterly winds are anticipated
through Wednesday morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1132 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY RETREATING TO THE EAST WITH WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING RAPIDLY ON BACKSIDE. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS RAPIDLY
WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS ALREADY IN NORTHWEST IOWA. TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALSO STABILIZED AND EVEN RISEN WITH THE INCREASED MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS THERMAL RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
HAVE REMAINED ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE ALONG WITH LIMITED SNOW COVER
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB NICELY. OF CONCERN WITH
CLOUDS...THERE IS A BROAD EXPANSE OF LOWER CLOUDINESS ACROSS
MISSOURI THIS MORNING WHICH IS LIFTING NORTHWARD ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. BOTH RAP AND HRRR INDICATE THIS AREA OF CLOUDS
SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...HAVE
GONE WITH MUCH MORE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CLOUDS PUSH EASTWARD.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
THE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS BENIGN FOR THE
EXTENDED. TONIGHT A BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS IOWA BUT
MOISTURE IS WOEFULLY LACKING. IN FACT THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH CLOUD COVER. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
BE A WIND SHIFT LATE TONIGHT TO THE NORTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SO TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
BACK UP ON THURSDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
CLOUD COVER SO I DID NOT GO TOO WARM ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER AS DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AT THIS POINT IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MUCH MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT INTO IOWA BUT THIS
DOES BEAR WATCHING. TEMP PROFILES ARE RATHER INTERESTING AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR SURFACE TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING LATE
THURSDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WE SHOULD MIX ENOUGH TO STAY
ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST CWA. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT FAR SOUTHERN IOWA MAY SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH
THE MOISTURE MOVING UP. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS REALLY KEEP ANY OF
THIS POTENTIAL SOUTH OF IOWA ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. I DID PUT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE SAKE OF
COLLABORATION AND THE SREF AND CANADIAN DO BRING SOMETHING INTO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THAT SYSTEM THEN MOVES OFF ON FRIDAY AND TEMPS BEHIND IT ARE JUST A
BIT COOLER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED THE MODELS DEVELOP A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT IMPACTS THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE CANADIAN AND THE EURO MODELS ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEY DIG THE SHORTWAVE INTO
IOWA BUT THERE IS ALSO A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DURING THIS TIME
THAT DOES NOT EXACTLY PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN ONE THUS THEY DEVELOP
TWO AREAS OF PRECIP...ONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ONE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEAVING IOWA IN BETWEEN WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP. BY THE TIME THE SHORTWAVES DO PHASE THE SYSTEM IS EAST OF
IOWA. WE HAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING AND I SAW NO REASON TO PULL
THEM AT THIS POINT BUT THERE CERTAINLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
GREATER CHANCE THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. ALSO...TEMPS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SOUTH AND A MIX
NORTH DURING THE DAY AND A MIX SOUTH TO SNOW NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST IA THRU EARLY TO MID-
AFTN...THEN LIFT OFF TOWARDS THE E. ONLY KOTM IS EXPECTED TO BE
IMPACTED BY THE MVFR CIGS...WITH SCT CLOUDS AFFECTING THE KDSM AND
KALO TERMINALS. SFC WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TDA BUT WILL LIGHTEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND A SFC FRONT PASSING THRU THE STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY/S
WINDS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
300 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1152 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
Low clouds have persisted and temps are being held down as a
result. The models continue to try and decrease the low trop
moisture through tonight. But, until we see a more clear trend via
satellite, will go slower than any model suggests. We trended more
toward the RAP through the evening hours as it is the most
pessimistic.
High pressure will move across the plains, upper Midwest and
eventually Great Lakes region Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Tonight through Wednesday evening should be dry. We added back
very small chance PoPs to the SW 1/3 of the area after midnight.
Should be a minimal to trace type of event. But, from late
Wednesday night through Thursday morning, both the GFS and ECMWF
show a notable increase in 850-700mb moisture coincident with
increasing QG forcing and isentropic lift/WAA. Ignoring the QPF
forecast as a basis for precip. PoPs will be based on the models
tendency to underestimate light precip chances in this type of
setup, as both the moisture, albeit not terribly deep, is there
along with the forcing. As far as type, could be a mix of very
light rain/sprinkles/light sleet to start. Maybe a very brief
period of light freezing rain/sprinkles/light sleet Thursday
morning over the northern 1/2 of the area. Otherwise just light
rain chances through the day Thursday. Thursday night, rain
chances really ramp up especially after midnight, as mid level
energy pushes east from the central states.
Temps will be a blend of MOS, and base model output.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
The longer term period starts off very wet. All models agree that
shortwave energy over the Plains will move northeast accompanied by
surface low pressure development and an influx of widespread
moisture (with precipitable water values rather high from 1.0 to
1.25 inches). With good isentropic lift associated with the
low-level jet, expect widespread rain during the day Friday and much
of Friday night. Rainfall amounts of over an inch are very possible,
especially along and south/east of the Ohio River. All of the
precipitation will be liquid in the form of rain, but model
soundings Friday night into Saturday morning suggest there could be
some heavier convective showers and perhaps a few rumbles of
thunder, mainly over parts of western KY as the exit region of an
upper jet streak approaches to enhance lift.
How long the rain lingers is unclear at this time, as model runs
show varying strengths and speeds of the system. GFS and ECMWF
maintain an open wave and slightly weaker surface development, while
the GEM is deeper and slower. Overall synoptic pattern favors more
of an open progressive wave, although models at times do suppress
systems a bit too much. For now, will keep system rather
progressive but allow scattered to numerous showers to linger
Saturday before ending later in the day as the system heads east.
Thereafter, the weather should become more benign with no other
significant weather systems expected to approach the region. Thus,
will keep dry weather in the forecast on Sunday and early next week.
Temperatures Friday with the rain will be a bit tricky. Rain should
hold readings down somewhat, especially over southern IL and
southwest IN, but good southerly flow should allow moderation well
up in the 50s over much of western/southwestern KY. High and low
temperatures should remain roughly within several degrees of normal
late in the weekend and early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1129 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
With weak advection and expansive low cloud cover persisting
across the region, will hold on to the low clouds and lower vsbys
through the end of the day and into tonight. IFR/LIFR conditions
to last a bit longer this p.m. Staring to see some movement on
the western edge from east KS into far west MO, east OK, but it
has a long way to go, and trajectories are SSW/NNE. Should
conditions improve more than anticipated, later shifts can adjust
accordingly. Winds will become light SSW and last through tonight,
then switch to NW Wednesday morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1152 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1152 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
Low clouds have persisted and temps are being held down as a
result. The models continue to try and decrease the low trop
moisture through tonight. But, until we see a more clear trend via
satellite, will go slower than any model suggests. We trended more
toward the RAP through the evening hours as it is the most
pessimistic.
High pressure will move across the plains, upper Midwest and
eventually Great Lakes region Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Tonight through Wednesday evening should be dry. We added back
very small chance PoPs to the SW 1/3 of the area after midnight.
Should be a minimal to trace type of event. But, from late
Wednesday night through Thursday morning, both the GFS and ECMWF
show a notable increase in 850-700mb moisture coincident with
increasing QG forcing and isentropic lift/waa. Ignoring the QPF
forecast as a basis for precip. PoPs will be based on the models
tendency to underestimate light precip chances in this type of
setup, as both the moisture, albeit not terribly deep, is there
along with the forcing. As far as type, could be a mix of very
light rain/sprinkles/light sleet to start. Maybe a very brief
period of light freezing rain/sprinkles/light sleet Thursday
morning over the northern 1/2 of the area. Otherwise just light
rain chances through the day Thursday. Thursday night, rain
chances really ramp up especially after midnight, as mid level
energy pushes east from the central states.
Temps will be a blend of MOS, and base model output.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
The continuation of fast zonal flow aloft will keep a fairly active
weather pattern into the long term. General agreement among the
deterministic models and their ensemble means lends relatively high
confidence through next weekend, with more uncertainty due to model
variances thereafter.
The period will start off wet as a frontal boundary enhances across
the region in response to the approach of shortwave energy aloft.
Will carry likely to categorical PoPs Friday with high end chance to
likely Friday night. Maintained the mention of showers, but kept
thunder out of the forecast for now. However, its inclusion may be
necessary if later model runs continue to hint at the potential for
weak elevated instability in close proximity to the surface wave,
especially Friday night. Precipitation will taper off from west to
east late Friday night and Saturday as the system departs.
Dry weather is expected Saturday night and Sunday as a weak mid
level ridge builds in. More uncertainty enters the forecast early
next week as the upper flow pattern transitions to northwesterly.
Whether or not we see any precipitation in this transition is
questionable at this point given the lack of agreement among model
solutions. For now, we stuck close to the initialized blend, which
strikes a good balance between the faster ECMWF and slower GFS. This
yields a small chance of rain Sunday night and Monday.
At this time, all of the precipitation in the long term appears to
be in liquid form as forecast models suggest the thermal profile
will be too warm for wintry precipitation. Of course, this can and
often does change as model solutions gain a better handle on the
systems in question.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1129 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
With weak advection and expansive low cloud cover persisting
across the region, will hold on to the low clouds and lower vsbys
through the end of the day and into tonight. IFR/LIFR conditions
to last a bit longer this p.m. Staring to see some movement on
the western edge from east KS into far west MO, east OK, but it
has a long way to go, and trajectories are SSW/NNE. Should
conditions improve more than anticipated, later shifts can adjust
accordingly. Winds will become light SSW and last through tonight,
then switch to NW Wednesday morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1129 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1129 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
Updated the Aviation section.
UPDATE Issued at 1052 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
Satellite trends, trajectories, weak flow suggest clouds will
persist, not surprising. RAP probably has best handle on clouds as
well as temps. Based the rest of the day forecast on the 13km RAP.
Other models seem to trend optimistic too fast. This is also seen in
the sounding forecast data. So, clouds, lower high temps today in
summary. Products and grids updated.
UPDATE Issued at 843 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
Updates right off the bat. Will have to slow down decrease in
cloud cover based on sat trends, and the RAP depiction of
persistent low level moisture. Also, areas below 1 mile vsby,
considerable 1-2 mi coverage, and drizzle. Good vsbys are
restricted to our far NW CWFA. So added that for a few hours this
morning. In fact, had a few reports of freezing drizzle as well,
that may continue a couple more hours (mid morning `ish). Grids
reflect the updates.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 252 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
Surface High pressure builds across the TN river valley today, as
the cold front that recently made passage makes its continued move
to our east. Drier columnar air in the southern Plains will
gradually work its way into/down the column in the near term. It
should lead to some breaks in the clouds today and tonight, esp
north and west.
By Wed., the front that moved east and laid its boundary back to
our south remains the focus for moisture pooling...resulting in
extensive clouds to our south and potentially bleeding into our
southern most counties Wed night. We backed off on pcpn since both
the 00Z NAM and GFS suggested the qpf with the system stays
largely near/west of the Ozarks thru 12Z Thursday.
On Thursday, this boundary lifts back to the north and enters some
overrunning pcpn. Then Thursday Night, some energy from the
southern plains makes its way into MO, so we`ll see a marked
uptick in Pops, particularly late Thursday night.
Temps remain cool but do not offer much off highs in the 40s and
lows in the 30s thru the short term. And since we hold Pops til
Thursday, all such Pops look to be liquid.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
The continuation of fast zonal flow aloft will keep a fairly active
weather pattern into the long term. General agreement among the
deterministic models and their ensemble means lends relatively high
confidence through next weekend, with more uncertainty due to model
variances thereafter.
The period will start off wet as a frontal boundary enhances across
the region in response to the approach of shortwave energy aloft.
Will carry likely to categorical PoPs Friday with high end chance to
likely Friday night. Maintained the mention of showers, but kept
thunder out of the forecast for now. However, its inclusion may be
necessary if later model runs continue to hint at the potential for
weak elevated instability in close proximity to the surface wave,
especially Friday night. Precipitation will taper off from west to
east late Friday night and Saturday as the system departs.
Dry weather is expected Saturday night and Sunday as a weak mid
level ridge builds in. More uncertainty enters the forecast early
next week as the upper flow pattern transitions to northwesterly.
Whether or not we see any precipitation in this transition is
questionable at this point given the lack of agreement among model
solutions. For now, we stuck close to the initialized blend, which
strikes a good balance between the faster ECMWF and slower GFS. This
yields a small chance of rain Sunday night and Monday.
At this time, all of the precipitation in the long term appears to
be in liquid form as forecast models suggest the thermal profile
will be too warm for wintry precipitation. Of course, this can and
often does change as model solutions gain a better handle on the
systems in question.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1129 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
With weak advection and expansive low cloud cover persisting
across the region, will hold on to the low clouds and lower vsbys
through the end of the day and into tonight. IFR/LIFR conditions
to last a bit longer this p.m. Staring to see some movement on
the western edge from east KS into far west MO, east OK, but it
has a long way to go, and trajectories are SSW/NNE. Should
conditions improve more than anticipated, later shifts can adjust
accordingly. Winds will become light SSW and last through tonight,
then switch to NW Wednesday morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1052 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1052 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
Satellite trends, trajectories, weak flow suggest clouds will
persist, not surprising. RAP probably has best handle on clouds as
well as temps. Based the rest of the day forecast on the 13km RAP.
Other models seem to trend optimistic too fast. This is also seen in
the sounding forecast data. So, clouds, lower high temps today in
summary. Products and grids updated.
UPDATE Issued at 843 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
Updates right off the bat. Will have to slow down decrease in
cloud cover based on sat trends, and the RAP depiction of
persistent low level moisture. Also, areas below 1 mile vsby,
considerable 1-2 mi coverage, and drizzle. Good vsbys are
restricted to our far NW CWFA. So added that for a few hours this
morning. In fact, had a few reports of freezing drizzle as well,
that may continue a couple more hours (mid morning `ish). Grids
reflect the updates.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 252 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
Surface High pressure builds across the TN river valley today, as
the cold front that recently made passage makes its continued move
to our east. Drier columnar air in the southern Plains will
gradually work its way into/down the column in the near term. It
should lead to some breaks in the clouds today and tonight, esp
north and west.
By Wed., the front that moved east and laid its boundary back to
our south remains the focus for moisture pooling...resulting in
extensive clouds to our south and potentially bleeding into our
southern most counties Wed night. We backed off on pcpn since both
the 00Z NAM and GFS suggested the qpf with the system stays
largely near/west of the Ozarks thru 12Z Thursday.
On Thursday, this boundary lifts back to the north and enters some
overrunning pcpn. Then Thursday Night, some energy from the
southern plains makes its way into MO, so we`ll see a marked
uptick in Pops, particularly late Thursday night.
Temps remain cool but do not offer much off highs in the 40s and
lows in the 30s thru the short term. And since we hold Pops til
Thursday, all such Pops look to be liquid.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
The continuation of fast zonal flow aloft will keep a fairly active
weather pattern into the long term. General agreement among the
deterministic models and their ensemble means lends relatively high
confidence through next weekend, with more uncertainty due to model
variances thereafter.
The period will start off wet as a frontal boundary enhances across
the region in response to the approach of shortwave energy aloft.
Will carry likely to categorical PoPs Friday with high end chance to
likely Friday night. Maintained the mention of showers, but kept
thunder out of the forecast for now. However, its inclusion may be
necessary if later model runs continue to hint at the potential for
weak elevated instability in close proximity to the surface wave,
especially Friday night. Precipitation will taper off from west to
east late Friday night and Saturday as the system departs.
Dry weather is expected Saturday night and Sunday as a weak mid
level ridge builds in. More uncertainty enters the forecast early
next week as the upper flow pattern transitions to northwesterly.
Whether or not we see any precipitation in this transition is
questionable at this point given the lack of agreement among model
solutions. For now, we stuck close to the initialized blend, which
strikes a good balance between the faster ECMWF and slower GFS. This
yields a small chance of rain Sunday night and Monday.
At this time, all of the precipitation in the long term appears to
be in liquid form as forecast models suggest the thermal profile
will be too warm for wintry precipitation. Of course, this can and
often does change as model solutions gain a better handle on the
systems in question.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 252 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
MVFR cigs will be the rule, with occasional mention of IFR cigs,
thru the bulk of the morning hours. Some clearing is trying to
make its way in from the south and west, with KCGI at nearest
threat. If it does advance eastward across KPAH, it will be short-
lived, with pm hours showing redevelopnig cu anyway. A gradual
improvement from MVFR to lower VFR cigs is potentially expected.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1206 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/18Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES. VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AND CIGS MAY ALSO SLOWLY LIFT BUT
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT MOST LOCATIONS. DESPITE ANY
IMPROVEMENTS...CIGS SHOULD LOWER AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING ONCE
AGAIN. AREAS OF FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP. SIMILAR TO TODAY...CIGS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO LIFT AND IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. A FEW
SHWRS COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY NORTH OF I-20
ALONG A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT. /09/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE WINDS...DEW POINTS...
AND RAISED THE EXPECTED DAYTIME HIGHS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO LOWER NORTHWEST AND
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA SO LEFT RAIN CHANCES
THIS REGION. CLOUDS NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK MUCH SINCE THE MORNING
SOUNDING INDICATED AN INVERSION WITH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH IT. /06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SCT AREAS OF -RA/-DZ CONTINUE FROM THE SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP
E TX INTO MUCH OF NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR THIS MORNING...GENERALLY
ALONG THE RESIDUAL 925MB TROUGH...WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING
ALONG THE 285-290K SURFACES PERSIST. THE 00Z NAM AND HRRR HAS
INITIALIZED WELL ON THIS -RA THIS MORNING...WITH THE 925MB TROUGH
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING...THUS ENDING THE -RA BY
MIDDAY. HAVE CARRIED OVER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING FOR
THESE AREAS...WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE LAYER BECOMES MORE SHALLOW WITH
TIME. THE 10Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS
NCNTRL TX THIS MORNING...WITH THIS RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT E INTO
THE REGION LATER TODAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF MONDAY/S COLD FROPA WILL REMAIN QUITE
SHALLOW...WITH A VERY STEEP CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT ON THE 02/00Z
KSHV RAOB...EXPECTED TO KEEP THE STRATUS SHIELD IN PLACE AND THUS
MAINTAINING THE COOL CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MAX TEMPS AND CLOSER TO THE NAM 2M TEMPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMING EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE LOW STRATUS SHIELD WILL BE A BIT DEEPER...MAINLY FROM DEEP E
TX ACROSS NCNTRL LA. SOME OF THE STRATUS MAY THIN ENOUGH FROM S TO
N BENEATH THE SFC RIDGE WEDNESDAY THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
WARMING MAINLY S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
ABUNDANT.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY OVER EXTREME NE
TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SHIFT S ACROSS OK/AR AND STALL ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N
TX/SRN OK INTO CNTRL AR. MUCH LIKE THIS PAST FRONT...THIS 2ND
FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW...BUT SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/OVERRUNNING FOR SCT -SHRA MAINLY NW OF
THE I-30 CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN N AWAY FROM
THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH THE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO MODIFY FURTHER
S ACROSS TX/LA...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS RETURNING TO MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
NEXT PROGRESSIVE BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING E ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THURSDAY AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...ENHANCING SCT -SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH QPF THAN THE
GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH BETTER RAIN COVERAGE SUCH
THAT POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY ALONG AND N OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA. HAVE ALSO RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE
FARTHER S...WITH THE -SHRA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE...AS MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF BY MID AND LATE WEEKEND.
THE GFS IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SHIFTING E
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A
BIT SLOWER /BY 12 HOURS/ AND MUCH DRIER THAN THE WETTER/FASTER
GFS. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...BEFORE TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY WITH
THE NEXT COLD FROPA THAT WILL BUILD S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 51 45 63 50 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
MLU 48 43 63 49 67 / 20 10 10 10 10
DEQ 48 39 52 45 60 / 0 10 30 30 30
TXK 49 42 57 48 62 / 0 10 20 20 20
ELD 49 41 59 46 63 / 10 10 10 20 20
TYR 50 44 61 53 67 / 0 10 20 20 20
GGG 50 44 61 52 67 / 0 10 20 20 20
LFK 53 47 67 53 69 / 0 0 10 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1108 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE WINDS...DEW POINTS...
AND RAISED THE EXPECTED DAYTIME HIGHS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO LOWER NORTHWEST AND
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA SO LEFT RAIN CHANCES
THIS REGION. CLOUDS NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK MUCH SINCE THE MORNING
SOUNDING INDICATED AN INVERSION WITH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH IT. /06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014/
AVIATION...
MVFR WEST TO IFR-VLIFR FROM KTXK DOWN TO KSHV AND POINTS EAST. AS
THE COLD AIR DEEPENS A BIT WE WILL SEE MVFR WORKING EASTWARD AND
EVEN SOME VFR CIGS LATER IN THE CYCLE OUT WEST. SFC AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE NW 10-20KTS POST FROPA AND THEN BACK TO SW BY 3-4KFT AND
PICK UP SPEED A BIT. FG/DZ WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AND SLOWLY
IMPROVE 16-20Z. EXPECTING VFR/MVFR CIGS FOR MOST SITES BY SUNSET.
LIGHTWINDS AND STILL MOIST SOIL MAY BRING SOME MVFR VSBY AND CIGS
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH A MUCH BETTER DAY WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SCT AREAS OF -RA/-DZ CONTINUE FROM THE SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP
E TX INTO MUCH OF NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR THIS MORNING...GENERALLY
ALONG THE RESIDUAL 925MB TROUGH...WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING
ALONG THE 285-290K SURFACES PERSIST. THE 00Z NAM AND HRRR HAS
INITIALIZED WELL ON THIS -RA THIS MORNING...WITH THE 925MB TROUGH
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING...THUS ENDING THE -RA BY
MIDDAY. HAVE CARRIED OVER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING FOR
THESE AREAS...WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE LAYER BECOMES MORE SHALLOW WITH
TIME. THE 10Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS
NCNTRL TX THIS MORNING...WITH THIS RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT E INTO
THE REGION LATER TODAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF MONDAY/S COLD FROPA WILL REMAIN QUITE
SHALLOW...WITH A VERY STEEP CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT ON THE 02/00Z
KSHV RAOB...EXPECTED TO KEEP THE STRATUS SHIELD IN PLACE AND THUS
MAINTAINING THE COOL CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MAX TEMPS AND CLOSER TO THE NAM 2M TEMPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMING EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE LOW STRATUS SHIELD WILL BE A BIT DEEPER...MAINLY FROM DEEP E
TX ACROSS NCNTRL LA. SOME OF THE STRATUS MAY THIN ENOUGH FROM S TO
N BENEATH THE SFC RIDGE WEDNESDAY THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
WARMING MAINLY S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
ABUNDANT.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY OVER EXTREME NE
TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SHIFT S ACROSS OK/AR AND STALL ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N
TX/SRN OK INTO CNTRL AR. MUCH LIKE THIS PAST FRONT...THIS 2ND
FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW...BUT SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/OVERRUNNING FOR SCT -SHRA MAINLY NW OF
THE I-30 CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN N AWAY FROM
THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH THE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO MODIFY FURTHER
S ACROSS TX/LA...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS RETURNING TO MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
NEXT PROGRESSIVE BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING E ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THURSDAY AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...ENHANCING SCT -SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH QPF THAN THE
GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH BETTER RAIN COVERAGE SUCH
THAT POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY ALONG AND N OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA. HAVE ALSO RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE
FARTHER S...WITH THE -SHRA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE...AS MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF BY MID AND LATE WEEKEND.
THE GFS IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SHIFTING E
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A
BIT SLOWER /BY 12 HOURS/ AND MUCH DRIER THAN THE WETTER/FASTER
GFS. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...BEFORE TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY WITH
THE NEXT COLD FROPA THAT WILL BUILD S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 51 45 63 50 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
MLU 48 43 63 49 67 / 20 10 10 10 10
DEQ 48 39 52 45 60 / 0 10 30 30 30
TXK 49 42 57 48 62 / 0 10 20 20 20
ELD 49 41 59 46 63 / 10 10 10 20 20
TYR 50 44 61 53 67 / 0 10 20 20 20
GGG 50 44 61 52 67 / 0 10 20 20 20
LFK 53 47 67 53 69 / 0 0 10 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
416 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SNOW WITHIN A
MID-LEVEL FGEN BAND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP...AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS AREA OF SNOW NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS COLD FRONT BUT CONTINUE TO
GUST NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOLLOWED BY GALE
HEADLINES.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE...QG FORCING/MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL COMBINE WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
MODELS PLACE THIS BAND OF SNOW AT DIFFERENT LOCATIONS...BUT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT LEANING TOWARDS THE MESO
MODELS...WHICH WOULD CREATE THIS HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS FROM IRON
MOUNTAIN TO WHITEFISH POINT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND MANISTIQUE AS
WELL. WILL SHOW A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THESE AREAS...BUT COULD
SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AREAS IF THE
MARGINAL DELTA T/S ARE SUFFICIENT. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND CREATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM ONTONAGON TO THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT ACCUMS TO SUB ADVISORY LEVELS.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH-CENTRAL TO THE
MIDDLE TEENS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING...VEERING WINDS TO THE WNW WILL BE COLD AND DRY AIR
ADVECTING OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COLDER AS A RESULT. DELTA T/S WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WESTERLY SNOW BELTS...BUT
THAT WILL BE COUNTERACTED BY THE INCOMING DRY AIRMASS.
REGARDLESS...SNOW INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE FROM GRAND MARAIS
THROUGH WHITEFISH POINT IN THE AFTERNOON AS WIND DIRECTIONS VEER.
COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IN THE SNOW BELTS. HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS SOUTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 20S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
A RELATIVELY FLAT ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WL KEEP ARCTIC AIR
LOCKED NORTH IN CANADA AND LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER UPR MI THRU
SAT. A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO REACH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT/MON AND BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SYNOPTIC
SNOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO THE AREA. TOO EARLY YET FOR
SPECIFICS AS THE MDLS HAVE DIFFERENCES ON THE SPEED AND DEPTH OF
THE SHORTWAVE TRFO AS WELL AS THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR THAT MAY GET
DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WHICH MAY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPS WL LIKELY END UP CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH BRIEF WARM-UPS
FOLLOWED BY BRIEF COOL DOWNS.
W-NW WINDS TO CONT INTO WED EVENING...BRINGING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS TO MUCH OF THE NRN SECTION OF UPR MI. KEWEENAW...HOUGHTON...
ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES TO BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ACCUMULATING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY THE LATTER 2 COUNTIES WHO HAVE THE LONGEST
FETCH. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO RANGE FROM AN INCH OR LESS NW
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR ERN SECTIONS.
THE LAKE EFFECT WL TEND TO WEAKEN OVER THE WRN U.P. LATER WED NGT
AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TO THE W-SW DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HI PRES. BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE ARRIVES...IT COULD BE A
GUSTY EVENING OVER THE REGION WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. THIS WL GENERATE BLOWING/DRIFTING
OF THE NEW SNOW. QUITE A RANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED WED NGT BETWEEN THE
DECREASING CLODUS/DIMINISHING WINDS OVER WRN SECTIONS AND MORE
CLOUDS/WIND OVER ERN SECTIONS. LOOK FOR READINGS TO RANGE FROM A
COUPLE OF DEGS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO INTERIOR WEST TO THE MID-TEENS
FROM GRAND MARAIS EWD.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THU...RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS UPR MI AS WINDS BACK TO THE S-SW. PRETTY STRONG
SURGE OF WAA INDICATED BY THE MODELS AS 8H TEMPS CLIMB FROM THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO(C). THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOT STRONG ENUF TO ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP...
HOWEVER THERE IS ENUF LIFT TO BRING MORE CLOUDS BACK INTO THE
PICTURE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF A
COLD START TO THE DAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS WL COUNTER THE WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT...THUS MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU NGT AS THE S-SW WINDS TO PERSIST AND
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY LIFTING MECHANISM ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS.
STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ANTICIPATED AND THIS WL HELP HOLD
TEMPS UP A BIT. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO SETTLE MAINLY INTO THE TEENS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON AND
VEER THE WINDS MORE TO THE W-NW BY 00Z SAT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE IS APPARENT AS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE OZARKS/TN
VALLEY INTERCEPTS ANY GULF MOISTURE. PREFER TO LEAVE THE FCST DRY
PER PREVIOUS SHIFT. MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30-35 DEG RANGE
WITH THE WARMER READINGS IN THE EAST.
A LARGE CANADIAN HI PRES TO BE OUR MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND PROVIDE A MOSTLY DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE A MINIMAL CHC OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO N-NW WINDS. 8H
TEMPS ONLY AROUND -8C OVER THE LAKE WOULD LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL.
TRAJS BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY SAT...SO DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
MAX TEMPS ON SAT TO AGAIN BE GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 DEG RANGE WITH
A FEW UPR 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST.
AFTER A QUIET SAT NGT...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEST WHERE A WEAK
SFC LOW/CDFNT AND SHORTWAVE TROF ARE PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
UPR MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. 12Z GFS/GEM ARE SLOWER
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND BARELY GET THE LEADING EDGE
OF PCPN TO FAR WRN SECTIONS BY 00Z MON. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF/UKMET
ARE FASTER OVERALL AND WOULD BRING THE PCPN CHCS THRU ALMOST ALL
OF UPR MI BY 00Z MON. DUE TO THE WIDE DISCREPANCY IN TIMING...HAVE
FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH BRINGS PCPN CHCS THRU
MOST OF UPR MI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS PCPN
TYPE...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS/GEM ARE CORRECT WHERE A MIX WOULD BE
POSSIBLE HEADED INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
THE CHCS FOR BOTH SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WL CONT INTO
SUNDAY NGT AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MUCH TOO
EARLY FOR ANY ACCUMULATION NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS BECOME MORE OF
AN ISSUE HEADED INTO MON AS WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME NW AND CAA
SWEEPS SWD SENDING 8H TEMPS DOWN INTO THE -10 TO -15 DEG RANGE(C).
HAVE PLACED HIGHER CHC POPS OVER THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS
FROM KEWEENAW EWD. THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO MON NGT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF HEADED INTO TUE AS
ANOTHER AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT
415 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
CMX AND SAW. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET
FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT CMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
SOUTHERLY GALES ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE.
SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...ANOTHER W-NW GALE EVENT
WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BUT SINCE THE WEATHER
PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE...THE PASSAGE OF THE TRAILING HI PRES RIDGE
THRU THE AREA ON THU WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING/BACKING WINDS TO
THE SW FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. NO GALES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPC
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...RDM
MARINE...MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SNOW WITHIN A
MID-LEVEL FGEN BAND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP...AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS AREA OF SNOW NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS COLD FRONT BUT CONTINUE TO
GUST NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOLLOWED BY GALE
HEADLINES.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE...QG FORCING/MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL COMBINE WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
MODELS PLACE THIS BAND OF SNOW AT DIFFERENT LOCATIONS...BUT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT LEANING TOWARDS THE MESO
MODELS...WHICH WOULD CREATE THIS HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS FROM IRON
MOUNTAIN TO WHITEFISH POINT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND MANISTIQUE AS
WELL. WILL SHOW A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THESE AREAS...BUT COULD
SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AREAS IF THE
MARGINAL DELTA T/S ARE SUFFICIENT. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND CREATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM ONTONAGON TO THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT ACCUMS TO SUB ADVISORY LEVELS.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH-CENTRAL TO THE
MIDDLE TEENS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING...VEERING WINDS TO THE WNW WILL BE COLD AND DRY AIR
ADVECTING OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COLDER AS A RESULT. DELTA T/S WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WESTERLY SNOW BELTS...BUT
THAT WILL BE COUNTERACTED BY THE INCOMING DRY AIRMASS.
REGARDLESS...SNOW INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE FROM GRAND MARAIS
THROUGH WHITEFISH POINT IN THE AFTERNOON AS WIND DIRECTIONS VEER.
COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IN THE SNOW BELTS. HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS SOUTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 20S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
A RELATIVELY FLAT ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WL KEEP ARCTIC AIR
LOCKED NORTH IN CANADA AND LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER UPR MI THRU
SAT. A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO REACH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT/MON AND BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SYNOPTIC
SNOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO THE AREA. TOO EARLY YET FOR
SPECIFICS AS THE MDLS HAVE DIFFERENCES ON THE SPEED AND DEPTH OF
THE SHORTWAVE TRFO AS WELL AS THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR THAT MAY GET
DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WHICH MAY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPS WL LIKELY END UP CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH BRIEF WARM-UPS
FOLLOWED BY BRIEF COOL DOWNS.
W-NW WINDS TO CONT INTO WED EVENING...BRINGING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS TO MUCH OF THE NRN SECTION OF UPR MI. KEWEENAW...HOUGHTON...
ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES TO BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ACCUMULATING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY THE LATTER 2 COUNTIES WHO HAVE THE LONGEST
FETCH. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO RANGE FROM AN INCH OR LESS NW
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR ERN SECTIONS.
THE LAKE EFFECT WL TEND TO WEAKEN OVER THE WRN U.P. LATER WED NGT
AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TO THE W-SW DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HI PRES. BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE ARRIVES...IT COULD BE A
GUSTY EVENING OVER THE REGION WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. THIS WL GENERATE BLOWING/DRIFTING
OF THE NEW SNOW. QUITE A RANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED WED NGT BETWEEN THE
DECREASING CLODUS/DIMINISHING WINDS OVER WRN SECTIONS AND MORE
CLOUDS/WIND OVER ERN SECTIONS. LOOK FOR READINGS TO RANGE FROM A
COUPLE OF DEGS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO INTERIOR WEST TO THE MID-TEENS
FROM GRAND MARAIS EWD.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THU...RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS UPR MI AS WINDS BACK TO THE S-SW. PRETTY STRONG
SURGE OF WAA INDICATED BY THE MODELS AS 8H TEMPS CLIMB FROM THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO(C). THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOT STRONG ENUF TO ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP...
HOWEVER THERE IS ENUF LIFT TO BRING MORE CLOUDS BACK INTO THE
PICTURE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF A
COLD START TO THE DAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS WL COUNTER THE WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT...THUS MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU NGT AS THE S-SW WINDS TO PERSIST AND
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY LIFTING MECHANISM ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS.
STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ANTICIPATED AND THIS WL HELP HOLD
TEMPS UP A BIT. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO SETTLE MAINLY INTO THE TEENS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON AND
VEER THE WINDS MORE TO THE W-NW BY 00Z SAT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE IS APPARENT AS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE OZARKS/TN
VALLEY INTERCEPTS ANY GULF MOISTURE. PREFER TO LEAVE THE FCST DRY
PER PREVIOUS SHIFT. MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30-35 DEG RANGE
WITH THE WARMER READINGS IN THE EAST.
A LARGE CANADIAN HI PRES TO BE OUR MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND PROVIDE A MOSTLY DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE A MINIMAL CHC OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO N-NW WINDS. 8H
TEMPS ONLY AROUND -8C OVER THE LAKE WOULD LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL.
TRAJS BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY SAT...SO DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
MAX TEMPS ON SAT TO AGAIN BE GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 DEG RANGE WITH
A FEW UPR 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST.
AFTER A QUIET SAT NGT...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEST WHERE A WEAK
SFC LOW/CDFNT AND SHORTWAVE TROF ARE PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
UPR MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. 12Z GFS/GEM ARE SLOWER
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND BARELY GET THE LEADING EDGE
OF PCPN TO FAR WRN SECTIONS BY 00Z MON. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF/UKMET
ARE FASTER OVERALL AND WOULD BRING THE PCPN CHCS THRU ALMOST ALL
OF UPR MI BY 00Z MON. DUE TO THE WIDE DISCREPANCY IN TIMING...HAVE
FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH BRINGS PCPN CHCS THRU
MOST OF UPR MI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS PCPN
TYPE...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS/GEM ARE CORRECT WHERE A MIX WOULD BE
POSSIBLE HEADED INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
THE CHCS FOR BOTH SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WL CONT INTO
SUNDAY NGT AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MUCH TOO
EARLY FOR ANY ACCUMULATION NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS BECOME MORE OF
AN ISSUE HEADED INTO MON AS WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME NW AND CAA
SWEEPS SWD SENDING 8H TEMPS DOWN INTO THE -10 TO -15 DEG RANGE(C).
HAVE PLACED HIGHER CHC POPS OVER THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS
FROM KEWEENAW EWD. THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO MON NGT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF HEADED INTO TUE AS
ANOTHER AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
CMX AND SAW. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET
FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT CMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014
SOUTHERLY GALES ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE.
SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...ANOTHER W-NW GALE EVENT
WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BUT SINCE THE WEATHER
PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE...THE PASSAGE OF THE TRAILING HI PRES RIDGE
THRU THE AREA ON THU WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING/BACKING WINDS TO
THE SW FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. NO GALES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...02
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1151 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS IN NW WI. RADAR INDICATES INCREASE
COVERAGE AND SOME INTENSITY WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD MOVING UP INTO
THE REGION. MN DOT WEB CAMS DO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING
IN THE TWIN CITIES. THE SNOW WILL DISSIPATE 00Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST. AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN WITH MOST OF
PRECIP NOT HITTING THE GROUND. ADJUSTED POPS ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
LATEST MODELS. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
AT 330 AM...CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASING/THICKENING ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...BUT WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WE DID HAVE SOME WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE SHIFTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ONTO THAT SECTION OF THE NORTH SHORE.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS DAYTIME HIGHS AND CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW. THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SPREADING INTO EC MN AND NW WI AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THE
LATEST 06Z RUN HAS SHIFTED THE BAND A BIT SOUTH...GENERALLY INTO
OUR SOUTHERN WI ZONES. MODEL QPF WOULD SUPPORT AN INCH OR SO OF
SNOW IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR. STILL...THE HRRR AND THE 4KM
NMM WRF DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS ALSO LOOKING
REASONABLY DRY...HAVE OPTED TO ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS NW WI
TODAY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WILL CARRY CHANCE/SCT
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SHORE...AND SCATTERED FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.
THE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BROUGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A BIT AS
WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS UP.
HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET WITH A
WARMING TREND.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE QUASI ZONAL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH/NEAR THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST
THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. WE DROPPED THE MENTION OF
FLURRIES FOR MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AS FORCING LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND
SOUNDINGS DRY. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING TO SOME
LAKE SNOW SNOW. DELTA-T VALUES ARE NOT THAT HIGH...SO ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY AS THIS WAVE BRUSHES THE
REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW-MID LEVELS. WE MAY NEED TO ADD A POP
OR FLURRIES IF MORE MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
A STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIXTURE TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TWENTIES
THURSDAY...THEN WARM INTO THE UPPER TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES ON
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES MONDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY DECENT MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS..WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING A 2-5 HOUR
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO KHYR LATER THIS AFTERNOON..AND MAY BRING
THEM DOWN INTO THE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR A SHORT TIME.
HOWEVER..THERE SHOULD BE A STRONG GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE SNOW..AND WE EXPECT ONLY FLURRIES AT MOST AT KDLH/KBRD..AND
MOST LIKELY ONLY A PERIOD OF LOWERED VFR CEILINGS.
OTHERWISE..SURFACE TROF AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE DULUTH CWA
TONIGHT..TURNING WINDS TO LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED WED MORNING AS A
STRATUS DECK ADVECTS/DEVELOPS WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION REGIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 17 5 16 3 / 20 10 0 0
INL 12 0 10 -9 / 20 10 10 0
BRD 20 5 16 3 / 20 10 0 0
HYR 20 5 18 0 / 40 20 0 0
ASX 21 9 18 3 / 40 20 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEWART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1145 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST. AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN WITH MOST OF
PRECIP NOT HITTING THE GROUND. ADJUSTED POPS ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
LATEST MODELS. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
AT 330 AM...CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASING/THICKENING ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...BUT WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WE DID HAVE SOME WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE SHIFTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ONTO THAT SECTION OF THE NORTH SHORE.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS DAYTIME HIGHS AND CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW. THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SPREADING INTO EC MN AND NW WI AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THE
LATEST 06Z RUN HAS SHIFTED THE BAND A BIT SOUTH...GENERALLY INTO
OUR SOUTHERN WI ZONES. MODEL QPF WOULD SUPPORT AN INCH OR SO OF
SNOW IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR. STILL...THE HRRR AND THE 4KM
NMM WRF DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS ALSO LOOKING
REASONABLY DRY...HAVE OPTED TO ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS NW WI
TODAY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WILL CARRY CHANCE/SCT
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SHORE...AND SCATTERED FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.
THE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BROUGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A BIT AS
WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS UP.
HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET WITH A
WARMING TREND.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE QUASI ZONAL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH/NEAR THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST
THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. WE DROPPED THE MENTION OF
FLURRIES FOR MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AS FORCING LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND
SOUNDINGS DRY. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING TO SOME
LAKE SNOW SNOW. DELTA-T VALUES ARE NOT THAT HIGH...SO ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY AS THIS WAVE BRUSHES THE
REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW-MID LEVELS. WE MAY NEED TO ADD A POP
OR FLURRIES IF MORE MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
A STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIXTURE TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TWENTIES
THURSDAY...THEN WARM INTO THE UPPER TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES ON
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES MONDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY DECENT MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS..WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING A 2-5 HOUR
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO KHYR LATER THIS AFTERNOON..AND MAY BRING
THEM DOWN INTO THE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR A SHORT TIME.
HOWEVER..THERE SHOULD BE A STRONG GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE SNOW..AND WE EXPECT ONLY FLURRIES AT MOST AT KDLH/KBRD..AND
MOST LIKELY ONLY A PERIOD OF LOWERED VFR CEILINGS.
OTHERWISE..SURFACE TROF AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE DULUTH CWA
TONIGHT..TURNING WINDS TO LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED WED MORNING AS A
STRATUS DECK ADVECTS/DEVELOPS WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION REGIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 17 5 16 3 / 20 10 0 0
INL 12 0 10 -9 / 20 10 10 0
BRD 20 5 16 3 / 20 10 0 0
HYR 20 5 18 0 / 30 20 0 0
ASX 21 9 18 3 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1020 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST. AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN WITH MOST OF
PRECIP NOT HTTING THE GROUND. ADJUTSED POPS ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
LATEST MODELS. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
AT 330 AM...CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASING/THICKENING ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...BUT WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WE DID HAVE SOME WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE SHIFTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ONTO THAT SECTION OF THE NORTH SHORE.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS DAYTIME HIGHS AND CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW. THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SPREADING INTO EC MN AND NW WI AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THE
LATEST 06Z RUN HAS SHIFTED THE BAND A BIT SOUTH...GENERALLY INTO
OUR SOUTHERN WI ZONES. MODEL QPF WOULD SUPPORT AN INCH OR SO OF
SNOW IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR. STILL...THE HRRR AND THE 4KM
NMM WRF DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS ALSO LOOKING
REASONABLY DRY...HAVE OPTED TO ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS NW WI
TODAY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WILL CARRY CHANCE/SCT
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SHORE...AND SCATTERED FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.
THE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BROUGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A BIT AS
WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS UP.
HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET WITH A
WARMING TREND.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE QUASI ZONAL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH/NEAR THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST
THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. WE DROPPED THE MENTION OF
FLURRIES FOR MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AS FORCING LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND
SOUNDINGS DRY. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING TO SOME
LAKE SNOW SNOW. DELTA-T VALUES ARE NOT THAT HIGH...SO ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY AS THIS WAVE BRUSHES THE
REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW-MID LEVELS. WE MAY NEED TO ADD A POP
OR FLURRIES IF MORE MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
A STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIXTURE TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TWENTIES
THURSDAY...THEN WARM INTO THE UPPER TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES ON
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES MONDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO MAINLY THE KHYR AREA. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. MORE MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND GRADUALLY VEER TO W/SW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 17 5 16 3 / 20 10 0 0
INL 12 0 10 -9 / 20 10 10 0
BRD 20 5 16 3 / 20 10 0 0
HYR 20 5 18 0 / 30 20 0 0
ASX 21 9 18 3 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1159 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES. WE SHOULD GET A
FAIR AMOUNT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS AT OUR CWA DOORSTEP AND WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST. EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT
STRONG...AND MIXING ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE SHOULD
COMPENSATE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING LATEST TRENDS
WELL. I ALSO INCREASED WIND...ESPECIALLY GUSTS. WIND SHOULD
DIMINISH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. WE COULD GET
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TODAY DUE TO WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY. OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN (ESPECIALLY NEAR HEBRON)...AS
DEWOINTS RECOVER SLOWER THERE...ALONG WITH TAKING LONGER FOR WIND
TO DIMINISH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
ITS BEEN ANOTHER NIGHT OF QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MAKING
ITS WAY EAST OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR CWA LATER TODAY. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS DRAPED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE OK/TX BORDER NORTHEAST TO THE PARENT HIGH
OVER THE NERN CONUS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH AT TIMES HAS BEEN
GUSTY...MAINLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY...AND TEMPS AS OF 3 AM RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
THE FORECAST THOUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY/TONIGHT REMAINS A
DRY ONE...EVEN WITH A DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THERE BEING AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WITH ITS
PASSAGE. THE ABOVE MENTIONED BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST TODAY...MAINLY AFFECTING THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...BEFORE
EXITING TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
THE ONE NOTABLE AFFECT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE IS WITH ITS
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY OFF TO THE N/NW OF THE
CWA...MODEL TIMING REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH THE
FRONT STARTING TO CREEP INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
THERE ISNT A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND MODELS SHOW BY
00Z THIS EVENING IT HASNT QUITE CLEARED THE SERN THIRD OR SO OF
THE CWA. A DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TRICKY...AND TODAY IS NO EXCEPTION. THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS/GUIDANCE...ESP WITH THE RAP/HRRR. THERE
IS A WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE ALOFT...AND EXPECTING THAT RIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE BUMPS UP IN TEMPS AS
MIXING INCREASES AND CAN TAP INTO THAT WARMER AIR. THIS LOOKS TO
MAIN AFFECT THE NRN/WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...DUE TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH LIKELY WONT SEE THAT
FRONT MOVE IN UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IT LOOKS TO HAVE
LOST SOME OF ITS PUSH BY THEN. GOING STRAIGHT RAP/HRRR WOULD GIVE
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOCATIONS...WITH MANY OTHERS WELL INTO THE 50S /AGAIN THIS IS
MAINLY IN NEB/. DID AT LEAST INCORPORATE A BLEND OF THAT IDEA INTO
THE FORECAST...BUT PRETTY HESITANT TO GO AS WARM AS THEY SUGGEST.
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS IS ON THE LOW SIDE...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS A RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...DAY SHIFT SHOULD HAVE A
PRETTY GOOD IDEA BY LATE MORNING HOW THINGS ARE GOING TO PLAY OUT
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT AND MAY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
DO HAVE SOME LOWER RH VALUES DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THOSE ARE
DEPENDENT ON THE WARMER TEMPS THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING. EVEN IF
THOSE RH VALUES MATERIALIZE...EXPECTING THEM TO NOT MATCH UP WITH
THE GUSTIER WINDS THAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS OUT OF THE HWO BUT WILL
ALSO BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON IF THINGS
TREND WORSE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
TONIGHT...THE NORTHERLY WINDS SETTLE IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW...SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S ARE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO
TRANSITION ACROSS THE ROCKIES...HAVING LITTLE APPRECIABLE IMPACT
ON THE LOCAL WEATHER.
STARTING OFF...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER BEHIND
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENINGS COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...ACTUALLY
TWEAKED DOWN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AS IF LATEST
GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NOT CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING COOLER...DID NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO QUITE THAT LOW...BUT KEPT MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE 30S.
THEREAFTER...THE LOCAL AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME AS
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...AND WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL DAY IS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECT THE REMNANTS OF THE WEST COAST
STORM APPROACHING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING TO REACH THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS THE
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WEEKEND
STORM...DECIDED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST
ANYHOW...MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS...ALBEIT WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS WE
VERY WELL MAY END UP BEING DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH A COOL START TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS
WEDNESDAY...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
WIND WILL BE A BIT TRICKY TODAY. GUSTY WIND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...AND THEN THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH. THE WIND WILL CHANGE DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST BY
EVENING...BUT BY THEN...WIND WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BEHIND THE FRONT
AFTER SUNSET. WE COULD GET SOME MID-LEVEL PATCHY SKY COVER FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
207 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
DID INCREASE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS THINNER. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
ON GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. NO
CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 15
UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...RESULTING IN WEAK RADAR RETURNS ALONG TO NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY INCLUDING OVER MY SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. CIGS LOWERING
FROM 4-6K AGL SO POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING. OBSERVING
SITES THOUGH HAVE NOT REPORTED ANYTHING AND HAVE NOT SEEN ANYTHING
ON AREA WEBCAMS THUS FAR. STILL...WITH THE CIGS THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS
AM...LEANING ON THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. ZERO IMPACTS.
WEAK CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WARMER SOME LOCATIONS
BUT REMAIN COLD RANGING FROM 10 ABOVE NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. MOST MODELS
ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THE CAA TODAY OVER MY
NORTH...WHICH WAS ADDED INTO THE FORECAST LAST EVENING...SO SEE
NO REASON TO REMOVE.
MAINLY DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS. LOWS GENERALLY 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
BROAD PACIFIC RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL LEAD
TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
POSITION OF A SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY AFFECTING NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GEM/ECMWF ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE...WHEREAS THE GFS
IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTIONS AND KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW CHANCES NEAR THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION SUNDAY.
COOLER AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. MVFR STRATUS MAY CLIP KISN/KMOT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1214 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.AVIATION...
WENT WITH THE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST AS GFS HAS US BREAKING OUT OF
COLD AIR MUCH TOO SOON. NAM HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON COLD AIR RIGHT
NOW AND KEEPS THE CLOUDS AND OVERRUNNING SITUATION THROUGH
TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ON NEAR THE ESCARPMENT. THIS
OVERRUNNING SHOULD KEEP CIGS IN THE MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...LOWERING
TO IFR OVERNIGHT TOWARD WED MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT FOG TO ACCOMPANY THE CIGS. MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BIT IT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICK THE ONSHORE
FLOW REESTABLISHES. THE LATEST NAM KEEPS US IN THE SOUP ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014/
UPDATE... /ADDING LIGHT SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE FOR TODAY/
A QUICK UPDATE WAS ISSUED OVER MOST OF THE AREA TO INCLUDE
INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE AND SPRINKLES AS REPORTED AT CZO AND SEEN ON
RADAR IMAGERY. A SHALLOW DRY AIR LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE...SO
MOISTURE ACCUMULATION ON SURFACES SHOULD BE MINIMAL. MOST MODELS
SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FOR LATE TONIGHT...AND
THIS IS ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. WITH
THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING EARLY...THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SEPARATE EVENTS FILLING IN TO
BECOME CONTINUOUS. NO OTHER FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE...AS THE
MORNING OBSERVATIONS WERE CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014/
AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MVFR CIGS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE
AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS KEEP THE AREA TERMINALS SOCKED IN THROUGH
THE DAY WITH LOWER END MVFR CIGS...THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND
SREF ALONG WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE ALL SHOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE TAKEN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR THIS TAF
PACKAGE WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO HIGH END MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT CIGS TO DROP AGAIN TO LOW
END MVFR OR HIGH END IFR. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH FOR MOST
OF TODAY BUT START TO TURN OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
TREADWAY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
TEXAS BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF SHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH.
AREA SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SHOWED A STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION WITH A
SATURATED LAYER ABOVE WHICH WAS KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY. DURING THIS
PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND FLATTEN BRINGING
ZONAL FLOW OVER TEXAS. BELOW THIS RIDGE MOIST ISENTROPIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SUFFICIENT LIFT TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AFTER A CHILLY DAY TODAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN MOIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN TO THE EAST THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THIS WILL MEAN A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY CONTINUING
RAIN CHANCES. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 53 48 68 55 69 / 10 - - 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 53 47 68 54 70 / 10 - - 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 54 49 68 55 71 / 10 - - 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 52 46 65 53 66 / - - - 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 55 47 66 52 67 / - - - 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 51 47 66 53 68 / 10 - - 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 53 47 64 54 69 / 10 - - 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 48 67 54 70 / 10 - - 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 54 50 70 56 71 / 10 10 10 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 54 50 66 57 70 / 10 - - 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 54 49 67 57 71 / 10 - - 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1050 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014
.UPDATE... /ADDING LIGHT SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE FOR TODAY/
A QUICK UPDATE WAS ISSUED OVER MOST OF THE AREA TO INCLUDE
INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE AND SPRINKLES AS REPORTED AT CZO AND SEEN ON
RADAR IMAGERY. A SHALLOW DRY AIR LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE...SO
MOISTURE ACCUMULATION ON SURFACES SHOULD BE MINIMAL. MOST MODELS
SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FOR LATE TONIGHT...AND
THIS IS ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. WITH
THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING EARLY...THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SEPARATE EVENTS FILLING IN TO
BECOME CONTINUOUS. NO OTHER FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE...AS THE
MORNING OBSERVATIONS WERE CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014/
AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MVFR CIGS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE
AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS KEEP THE AREA TERMINALS SOCKED IN THROUGH
THE DAY WITH LOWER END MVFR CIGS...THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND
SREF ALONG WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE ALL SHOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE TAKEN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR THIS TAF
PACKAGE WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO HIGH END MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT CIGS TO DROP AGAIN TO LOW
END MVFR OR HIGH END IFR. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH FOR MOST
OF TODAY BUT START TO TURN OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
TREADWAY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
TEXAS BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF SHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH.
AREA SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SHOWED A STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION WITH A
SATURATED LAYER ABOVE WHICH WAS KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY. DURING THIS
PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND FLATTEN BRINGING
ZONAL FLOW OVER TEXAS. BELOW THIS RIDGE MOIST ISENTROPIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SUFFICIENT LIFT TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AFTER A CHILLY DAY TODAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN MOIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN TO THE EAST THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THIS WILL MEAN A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY CONTINUING
RAIN CHANCES. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 53 48 68 55 69 / 10 - - 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 53 47 68 54 70 / 10 - - 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 54 49 68 55 71 / 10 - - 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 52 46 65 53 66 / - - - 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 55 47 66 52 67 / - - - 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 51 47 66 53 68 / 10 - - 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 53 47 64 54 69 / 10 - - 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 48 67 54 70 / 10 - - 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 54 50 70 56 71 / 10 10 10 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 54 50 66 57 70 / 10 - - 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 54 49 67 57 71 / 10 - - 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00