Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/30/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
958 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AGAIN BRING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS
TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS ARE SEEING WIND GUSTS TO
70 MPH THIS MORNING. THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WILL
DECREASE AROUND 18Z. EXPECT WINDS TO SLOW UP SOME WITH GUSTS
DROPPING TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THESE WIND PRONE AREAS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING MOISTURE AT THE UPPER PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WEST OF COLORADO TO THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL KEEP WAVE CLOUDS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. IF SKIES CONTINUE TO
REMAIN NEARLY OVERCAST ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014
WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN THRU TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
WAVE CLOUDS. SIMULATED IMAGERY SUGGESTS HI LVL CLOUD COVER THRU
THE DAY SO ITS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
HIGHS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NR 70 AROUND
DENVER WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT THEN
RECORD HIGH OF 72 AT DENVER COULD BE TIED. AREAS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY FM FORT MORGAN TO STERLING MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. AS FOR WINDS MTN TOP
INVERSION IS RATHER WK THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT SO APPEARS THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL STAY ABV TIMBERLINE WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 60
TO 70 MPH RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MID DAY SUNDAY. UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY IS
PROGGED FOR THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FORM OF EASTERLY COMPONENT IS PROGGED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE HIGHEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO COME SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WAVE SET
UP LOOKS THE STRONGEST THAN. NO HIGHLIGHTS. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS
SPARSE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASE FOR THE
WESTERN CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A LOT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THERE
IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS
WITH THE UPSLOPE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE IS BEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY DEEP IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW A TAD OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN BORDER AREAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL GO WITH SOME MINOR POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...THAT`S IT. SATURDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE 1-2 C COOLER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS. ON SUNDAY...READINGS COOL DOWN SOME
10-20 C FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR THE LATER DAY`S...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH ONE
ANOTHER. THERE IS ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY...THEN SOME UPPER RIDGING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF HAVING WEAK UPPER RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...
THEY BOTH HAVE WEAK UPPER RIDGING. OVERALL THEY AGREE A BIT BETTER
THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS. THE GFS HAS MORE MOISTURE. WILL HAVE
SOME MINOR ALPINE POPS HERE AND THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGHS
CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWEST TO
WEST AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL RETURN SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
428 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014
WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN THRU TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
WAVE CLOUDS. SIMULATED IMAGERY SUGGESTS HI LVL CLOUD COVER THRU
THE DAY SO ITS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
HIGHS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NR 70 AROUND
DENVER WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT THEN
RECORD HIGH OF 72 AT DENVER COULD BE TIED. AREAS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY FM FORT MORGAN TO STERLING MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. AS FOR WINDS MTN TOP
INVERSION IS RATHER WK THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT SO APPEARS THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL STAY ABV TIMBERLINE WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 60
TO 70 MPH RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MID DAY SUNDAY. UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY IS
PROGGED FOR THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FORM OF EASTERLY COMPONENT IS PROGGED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE HIGHEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO COME SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WAVE SET
UP LOOKS THE STRONGEST THAN. NO HIGHLIGHTS. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS
SPARSE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASE FOR THE
WESTERN CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A LOT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THERE
IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS
WITH THE UPSLOPE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE IS BEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY DEEP IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW A TAD OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN BORDER AREAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL GO WITH SOME MINOR POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...THAT`S IT. SATURDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE 1-2 C COOLER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS. ON SUNDAY...READINGS COOL DOWN SOME
10-20 C FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR THE LATER DAY`S...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH ONE
ANOTHER. THERE IS ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY...THEN SOME UPPER RIDGING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF HAVING WEAK UPPER RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...
THEY BOTH HAVE WEAK UPPER RIDGING. OVERALL THEY AGREE A BIT BETTER
THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS. THE GFS HAS MORE MOISTURE. WILL HAVE
SOME MINOR ALPINE POPS HERE AND THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014
OUTSIDE OF SOME UPPER LVL CLOUD COVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS FOR WINDS THEY HAVE BEEN RANGING FM SLY TO
WLY THE LAST FEW HOURS SO WILL KEEP THEM SSW THRU THE MORNING HOURS.
BY EARLY AFTN THE RAP AND HRR INDICATE THEY MAY BRIEFLY BECOME WLY
FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO MORE SSW BY LATE AFTN. FOR
TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE DRAINAGE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
603 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW...AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION. MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE W/NW FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THE MOST NUMEROUS ON THE
KENX RADAR FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN VERMONT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING.
THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR SHOWS ANY LAKE EFFECT BAND LOSING ITS
DOWNSTREAM EXTENSION INTO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 00Z-03Z/SAT.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION...AND SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...SO THE BEST CHC OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE
IN THE WRN DACKS...PRIOR TO 06Z/SAT...AND THEN WE HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS THEREAFTER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A FAIRLY FRESH
SNOW COVER.
LOWS TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS THE GFSMOS VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE METMOS VALUES. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES...AND A SHADE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH...AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE H500 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO -1C TO
-4C BY 00Z/SUN. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY MOVE INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MAINLY
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...TOUGH PART OF THE FCST WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
PA...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVER
THE NRN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF -FZRA AND/OR -IP IN THE FCST
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT COULD HANDLE THE VERY LIGHT MIX...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO WITH THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
BE RISING...AND MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY 5 HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS
USED IN THE FCST...AS DONE BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO L30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ANY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EARLY ON TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AS
H850 TEMPS POP UP TO +3C TO +5C...AND SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME U40S ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY...AND THE BETTER CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND U30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. NOT THAT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SO POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN FORECAST IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT MONDAY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
THE COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP
TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.
FAIR BUT COLD TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...SO THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL LINGER INTO AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS EVEN
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF PCPN. HAVE FOLLOWED NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
MILDER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LITTLE COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE...COLD TEMPS
ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE A -SHSN AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT THESE SITES INTO
THE EVENING. MAINLY JUST SCT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
TAKES HOLD.
WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS AT KPSF/KALB THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
430 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW...AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION. MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EST...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE W/NW FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF ER NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THE MOST NUMEROUS ON THE
KENX RADAR FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE
LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.
THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR SHOWS ANY LAKE EFFECT BAND LOSING ITS
DOWNSTREAM EXTENSION INTO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 00Z-03Z/SAT.
THIS MAKES SENSES WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION...AND SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...SO THE BEST CHC OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE
IN THE WRN DACKS...PRIOR TO 06Z/SAT...AND THEN WE HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS THEREAFTER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A FAIRLY FRESH
SNOW COVER.
LOWS TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS THE GFSMOS VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE METMOS VALUES. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES...AND A SHADE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH...AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE H500 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO -1C TO
-4C BY 00Z/SUN. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY MOVE INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MAINLY
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...TOUGH PART OF THE FCST WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
PA...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVER
THE NRN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF -FZRA AND/OR -IP IN THE FCST
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT COULD HANDLE THE VERY LIGHT MIX...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO WITH THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
BE RISING...AND MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY 5 HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS
USED IN THE FCST...AS DONE BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO L30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ANY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EARLY ON TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AS
H850 TEMPS POP UP TO +3C TO +5C...AND SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME U40S ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY...AND THE BETTER CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND U30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. NOT THAT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SO POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN FORECAST IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT MONDAY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
THE COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP
TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.
FAIR BUT COLD TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...SO THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL LINGER INTO AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS EVEN
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF PCPN. HAVE FOLLOWED NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
MILDER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LITTLE COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGHT HE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KPSF WHERE CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE...COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE A -SHSN AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT THESE SITES INTO THE EEVENING. MAINLY
JUST SCT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TAKES HOLD.
WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS AT KPSF/KALB THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
429 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW...AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION. MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 428 PM EST...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE W/NW FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF ER NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THE MOST NUMEROUS ON THE
KENX RADAR FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE
LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.
THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR SHOWS ANY LAKE EFFECT BAND LOSING ITS
DOWNSTREAM EXTENSION INTO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 00Z-03Z/SAT.
THIS MAKES SENSES WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION...AND SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...SO THE BEST CHC OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE
IN THE WRN DACKS...PRIOR TO 06Z/SAT...AND THEN WE HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS THEREAFTER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A FAIRLY FRESH
SNOW COVER.
LOWS TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS THE GFSMOS VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE METMOS VALUES. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES...AND A SHADE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH...AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE H500 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO -1C TO
-4C BY 00Z/SUN. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY MOVE INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MAINLY
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...TOUGH PART OF THE FCST WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
PA...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVER
THE NRN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF -FZRA AND/OR -IP IN THE FCST
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT COULD HANDLE THE VERY LIGHT MIX...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO WITH THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
BE RISING...AND MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY 5 HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS
USED IN THE FCST...AS DONE BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO L30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ANY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EARLY ON TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AS
H850 TEMPS POP UP TO +3C TO +5C...AND SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME U40S ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY...AND THE BETTER CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND U30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. NOT THAT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SO POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN FORECAST IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT MONDAY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
THE COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP
TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.
FAIR BUT COLD TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...SO THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL LINGER INTO AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS EVEN
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF PCPN. HAVE FOLLOWED NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
MILDER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LITTLE COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGHT HE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KPSF WHERE CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE...COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE A -SHSN AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT THESE SITES INTO THE EEVENING. MAINLY
JUST SCT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TAKES HOLD.
WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS AT KPSF/KALB THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX OD PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
631 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WERE DIMINISHING AS THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY WAS EVOLVING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO EXTENDING
ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR. PER THE HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRRX
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD 15Z
INTO PORTIONS OF HERKIMER COUNTY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...WHILE
SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING /MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY/...MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. UPDATE TO HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY FORECAST AND TWEAKS TO THE POP/WX BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS.
PREV DISC...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR REVEAL VERY LIGHT
RETURNS OF THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FORWARD
MOVEMENT...THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AOA 12Z. THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER AND MEAN FLOW BECOME WESTERLY ALONG
WITH COLD ADVECTION /H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -15C/...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK THROUGH THE DAY. PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...FAVORABLE INVERSION
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW LAKE BANDS TO TRACK
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THAT RIDGE THOUGH WILL LIMIT THE INLAND
EXTENT SOMEWHAT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE POPS MAINLY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS. AS
FOR THOSE CRUCIAL LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES...THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 280-310 PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR.
DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF
REGION...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT INLAND EXTENT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TOO WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. SO WHERE
CLOUDS DO BREAK UP...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT AND LIKELY HIGHER LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL
QPFS ARE RATHER LIGHT BUT DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPENDING
ON THERMAL PROFILES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEST LIFT AND
LOW CPD/S WILL BE ACROSS THE DACKS REGION INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SO WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE WARMING THERMAL COLUMN...WE WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THEN INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON SUNDAY. WE WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY ATTAINED IN THE
EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THIS FRONT WON/T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...BUT WILL ALLOW SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE UNCLEAR IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY.
IF IT WAITS UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH...TEMPS MAY WIND
UP BEING MILD FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS/.
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY
PRECIP AND ALLOWS CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. WITH A COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE
THEY MAY WIND UP DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20 FOR MON
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIP MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PRECIP LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE TRANSITION...BUT
WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE GRIDS QUITE YET...AS THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS
FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PREVENTING MUCH QPF IN GENERAL.
ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. MINS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S.
ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY WILL QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLE...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY DRY
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS YET ANOTHER STORM WITH LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES
WITH JUST SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO LOW CLOUDS THAT REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE.
DURING THE DAY TODAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN
AROUND 3500-5000 FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
DURING DAYTIME MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A
WARM FRONT STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
THROUGH TODAY...A LITTLE HIGHER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY WEDNESDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THIS MONTH.
THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.
TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
AMOUNT DATE YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25 1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15 1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23 1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18 1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27 2014
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
912 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...
ADVECTION OF COLDER AIR SWD INTO THE AREA REMAINS ONGOING PAST
SUNRISE AND INTERESTINGLY WAS NOT TIMED TO COINCIDE WHOLLY WITH THE
NIGHT TIME PERIOD. WITH THE LOW SUN ANGLE TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
RISE TO FORECAST HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT EDITS HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS WHILE REMAINING IN THE 50S NORTH OF I4 AND LOWER TO MID 60S
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A LITTLE VEERING TO SFC TO BL WINDS
IS FORECAST BY RUC WITH A NNE COMPONENT TOWARD LATE AFTN. MARINE
BASED CLOUDINESS LOOKS TO BE AN OPEN CELL SC NEARSHORE AND SOME SCT
SC WL AFFECT THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND BEACHES FROM ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS NR 20 MPH.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CHANCE CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE
FL035 EXISTS AT COASTAL SITES...GENERALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CST FM
KVRB-KSUA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
LTST BUOY/COASTAL OBS INDICATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20-25 KNOTS IN THE
OPEN ATLANTIC. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTERING WINDS WL CREATE CHOP
IN/NEAR THE GULFSTREAM. SPEEDS MAY EASE A LITTLE BY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST...BUT IT WILL STILL NOT BE GOOD FOR
SMALL CRAFT OPERATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE
GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY EASE WINDS MORE...BUT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE GULF STREAM AT LEAST
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
JP/DKW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGING IS IN PLACE
FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM
BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHEASTERN
STATES. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDES NEAR THE VERY BASE OF THIS
EXITING TROUGH WITH A GENERAL W/NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A BUILDING RIDGE DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING ALONG WITH
THE BUILDING HEIGHTS. THE 28/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE REMAINS
INCREDIBLY DRY WITH A CALCULATED PW VALUE OF ONLY AROUND 0.25". THIS
READING IS SLIGHTLY UP FROM THE COLUMN 24 HOURS AGO...BUT STILL NEAR
THE VERY BOTTOM OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RANGE DURING LATE NOVEMBER.
LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION EXIST FROM TH SURFACE ALL THE WAY UP TO
THE TROP...AND IT IS LITTLE WONDER GIVEN THIS PROFILE THAT OUR SKIES
ARE CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE...1031MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR NORTH OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS HIGH IS SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE GA/CAROLINA
COAST AND WILL SLOWLY TURN OUR WINDS FROM THE CURRENT NORTHERLY
DIRECTION TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. OUR DISTANCE FROM THE
HIGH CENTER IS KEEPING OUR GRADIENT ENOUGH THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS HAVING DIFFICULTLY DECOUPLING EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE
RESULTING LIGHT BREEZE IS KEEPING TEMPS FROM DROPPING FAST.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 MPH). THE SLOW
TEMPERATURE DROP AND ONLY LIGHT WINDS IS MAKING THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA A REALLY "BORDERLINE"
EVENT. A FEW SPOTS MAY EVENTUALLY SEE WIND CHILLS DOWN AROUND 35
BRIEFLY TOWARD DAWN...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
CONDITIONS REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL BE DROPPING THE ADVISORY WITH
THE 4AM FORECAST PACKAGE. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER WE BRIEFLY REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT WILL STILL BE A BIT CHILLY OUT THERE UNTIL
THE SUN CAN RISE AND START WORKING ON THE ATMOSPHERE. SO... DRESS
APPROPRIATELY IF YOU ARE OUT THIS MORNING...PERHAPS WAITING OUTSIDE
YOUR FAVORITE STORE ON THIS FRIDAY AFTER THANKSGIVING.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A QUIET PERIOD OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
TODAY AND TONIGHT ...
A PLEASANT...BUT COOL LATE NOVEMBER DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH WHILE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY AS
IT PROGRESSES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CHILLY CONDITIONS EARLY
IN THE MORNING WILL MODERATE UNDER NEAR 100% OF THE POSSIBLE
SUNSHINE TO THE UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...LOWER 60S ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR...AND MIDDLE 60S DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE GA/CAROLINA
COAST AND THEN RIDGES BACK W/SW INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE RECOVERED MUCH...AND THE DRY COLUMN WILL
ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...AND 30S FOR
THE NATURE COAST ZONES. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS FOR
THE ZONES NORTH OF TAMPA WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SHELTERED AREAS TO DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND RADIATE DOWN INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S BY SUNRISE. BEST CHANCES AT DECOUPLING AND
LOWER/MIDDLE 30S WILL BE NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE...AND THESE AREAS WILL
ALSO HAVE THE GREATEST RISK OF PATCHY FROST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
SATURDAY...
UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO SHOW THE SIGNS OF RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF WHICH WILL EVOLVE AND AMPLIFY EASTWARD OVER OUR
REGION LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STACKED RIDGING
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY...AND
CURRENTLY FORECASTING AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES WARMER FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAN THEY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EQUATES TO UPPER 60S FAR NORTH...LOWER 70S THROUGH THE I-4
CORRIDOR AND MIDDLE 70S DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS.
THE WARMUP AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT MORE ON THAT PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY! STAY WARM IF YOU ARE OUT FOR AN EARLY MORNING
SHOPPING EXCURSION.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
ALOFT - A BROAD LOW ACROSS NUNAVUT CANADA TROUGHED DOWN ACROSS THE
PRAIRIES OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS OVER THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX...AND A RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REACHED NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE - HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES SPILLED DOWN OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS...A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD RIDGED ACROSS GA/FL INTO MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.
THROUGH MON - THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE CONUS TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE TX SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES
OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH THE TROUGH OR FRONT SHIFTING EASTWARD...ARCING ALONG A WESTERN
GULF COAST-NEW ENGLAND LINE. THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD RE-ADJUSTS TO ALONG LATITUDE 30-35 NORTH BUT CONTINUES TO
RIDGE BACK WEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
FOR TUE-THU - ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMS OVER WESTERN CANADA
AND MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL LINE WITH CYCLONIC FLOW FOR MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE GULF SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES
FL AND MOVES OVER THE BAHAMAS...LEAVING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS RIDGING BEGINS MOVING EAST FROM MEXICO. THE
MIDWEST SURFACE HIGH STRETCHES OUT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT TRACKS
EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...REINFORCING/MERGING WITH THE RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE
TROUGH/FRONT SETTLES IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND DISSIPATES.
THE UPPER RIDGING MOVING BY FOLLOWED EVENTUALLY BY ZONAL FLOW WILL
KEEP A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TUE AND TUE NIGHT WHEN THE SHORT
WAVE PASSES BY. IT WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE BUT WITH ENOUGH ENERGY
THAT COMBINES WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE EAST TO
RESULT IN SOME LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES
START OFF COOL SUN MORNING THEN WARM WITH READINGS RUNNING JUST ON
THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL. THE POSITION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE ARE WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY AND
EASTERLY WINDS...ROBUST AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON THE GULF.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. ONCE THE ADVISORY
IS DONE LATER TODAY...CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.
EASTERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH DURING THURSDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS LIKELY DROPPING BELOW 35
PERCENT FOR A BRIEF TIME. HOWEVER...DURATIONS OF SUB 35 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE SHORT...AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. THEREFORE NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND
AND WILL HELP KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE AND HENCE HIGHER CHANCES
EXIST FOR AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 61 46 72 56 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 66 49 75 58 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 62 45 71 55 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 63 46 73 56 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 60 37 71 48 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 61 50 71 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING
FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
WATERS.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1029 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR IN THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS SHOWING A 20 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH
MAY HELP TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER A BIT DISTURBED AND WILL SUPPORT
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. SOME ISOLATED FOG POSSIBLE NEAR
BODIES OF WATER AND IN SUSCEPTIBLE LOW LYING AREAS WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
COAST MONDAY AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. AT THE
SURFACE...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY THE BEST
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SO
HAVE KEPT POPS LOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES SETTING UP A WEDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE FA. HAVE
CONTINUED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES BY BLENDING LOCAL WEDGE TOOL INTO
MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN CAD SETUP.
MODELS ERODE THE CAD ON WEDNESDAY BUT SINCE MODELS OFTEN ERODE THE
WEDGE PREMATURELY...AM LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE FOR NOW. THE MODELS SHOW LESS MOISTURE THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH A MOISTURE
RETURN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FRIDAY...BUT STILL KEEPS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND GREATER LIFT NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS NEAR THE COAST. A LIGHT S TO SW WIND
SATURDAY PROVIDED SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...BUT STILL FAIRLY DRY OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA (FA).
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME INDICATIONS OF A SW 25 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
AT CAE WOULD IMPEDE FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO RIDGE AXIS WOULD BE LESS.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO HIGHER NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE DEWPOINT GRADIENT JUST SOUTH OF
OGB. LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE HITTING THE FOG POTENTIAL OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND OUR SOUTHERN FA...LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...A LITTLE HARDER THAN LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE. FOR
NOW...WILL INDICATE FOG AT THE FOG PRONE SITES AGS AND OGB.
ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z TO 15Z...WITH S TO SW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE
MON/TUE...WITH CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU EARLY WED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1026 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
I MADE SOME MORE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS AS THEY CONTINUE
TO FALL QUICKLY UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THOSE TEMPS SHOULD GET CLOSE TO THE DEW POINT IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE RATE OF FALL
CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT.
AS FOR THE FOG...I THINK THE HRRR IS WELL OVERDONE HAVING VSBYS
NEAR ZERO AS EARLY AS 11 PM OVER CHATHAM COUNTY. THE DEW POINT
DEPRESSION AS OF 9 PM AT SAV IS STILL 6 DEGREES F. I DO THINK THAT
WE WILL SEE SOME GROUND FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO SWAMPS AND OPEN
FIELDS AND GOLF COURSES WHERE GROUND FOG IS FAVORED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION...
SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70F. FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP LOWS INTO 40S MOST LOCATIONS...
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S FAR INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 40S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. ON THE BEACHES...TEMPERATURES ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE
INCLUDING MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY TO JUSTIFY A MENTION OF AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.
MONDAY...THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE...
SETTING UP A DECENT WARM ADVECTION REGIME. WARM THICKNESSES
BOLSTERED BY AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TUESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL TUESDAY AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF COLD FROPA. EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
ADVECT SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE WEDGE AND WILL SUPPORT WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS SCENARIO WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE FOR
PRECIPITATION. WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE...LIMITED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-16. TEMPS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AND WILL DEPEND ON COLD FROPA TIMING AND ON COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTH AND
INTO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERSISTENT ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ESE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC ATOP THE COLD
AIR WEDGE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SO WE HAVE
CONFINED THE RAIN CHANCES TO THE MARINE AREAS. OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AND THE LACK OF PRECIP-INDUCED EVAPORATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S EACH DAY WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
I HAD TO MAKE A LATE EVENING UPDATE TO BRING IN SOME TEMPO IFR
VSBYS INTO SAV IN THE 10-13Z TIME FRAME. ALREADY SAW A PERIOD OF 4
SM AT SVN...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WITH FOG
MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
FOG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
WAKE OF COLD FROPA.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHOULD RULE MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...WINDS ARE BARELY REGISTERING
AT ALL AT SOME LOCATIONS ON THE LAND/OCEAN INTERFACE THIS EVENING.
SEAS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 3 FEET WITH THE LIGHT WINDS OFFSHORE OR
PARALLEL TO THE COAST.
THE SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DIVIDED INTO A TRANQUIL REGION
THROUGH MONDAY...A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT TO NEAR-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CONCLUDING WITH A
MODEST RELAXATION OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS INTO LATE
WEEK. TO START...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL HOLD WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...A WEDGE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST...AND THE TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NORTHEAST WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THEN...ELEVATED NORTHEAST
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO LATE WEEK...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA
CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FWA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
912 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
I MADE SOME MORE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS AS THEY CONTINUE
TO FALL QUICKLY UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THOSE TEMPS SHOULD GET CLOSE TO THE DEW POINT IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE RATE OF FALL
CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT.
AS FOR THE FOG...I THINK THE HRRR IS WELL OVERDONE HAVING VSBYS
NEAR ZERO AS EARLY AS 11 PM OVER CHATHAM COUNTY. THE DEW POINT
DEPRESSION AS OF 9 PM AT SAV IS STILL 6 DEGREES F. I DO THINK THAT
WE WILL SEE SOME GROUND FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO SWAMPS AND OPEN
FIELDS AND GOLF COURSES WHERE GROUND FOG IS FAVORED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION...
SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70F. FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP LOWS INTO 40S MOST LOCATIONS...
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S FAR INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 40S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. ON THE BEACHES...TEMPERATURES ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE
INCLUDING MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY TO JUSTIFY A MENTION OF AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.
MONDAY...THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE...
SETTING UP A DECENT WARM ADVECTION REGIME. WARM THICKNESSES
BOLSTERED BY AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TUESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL TUESDAY AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF COLD FROPA. EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
ADVECT SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE WEDGE AND WILL SUPPORT WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS SCENARIO WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE FOR
PRECIPITATION. WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE...LIMITED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-16. TEMPS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AND WILL DEPEND ON COLD FROPA TIMING AND ON COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTH AND
INTO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERSISTENT ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ESE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC ATOP THE COLD
AIR WEDGE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SO WE HAVE
CONFINED THE RAIN CHANCES TO THE MARINE AREAS. OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AND THE LACK OF PRECIP-INDUCED EVAPORATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S EACH DAY WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
I DID ADD IN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
DURING THE EARLY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
FOG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
WAKE OF COLD FROPA.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHOULD RULE MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...WINDS ARE BARELY REGISTERING
AT ALL AT SOME LOCATIONS ON THE LAND/OCEAN INTERFACE THIS EVENING.
SEAS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 3 FEET WITH THE LIGHT WINDS OFFSHORE OR
PARALLEL TO THE COAST.
THE SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DIVIDED INTO A TRANQUIL REGION
THROUGH MONDAY...A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT TO NEAR-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CONCLUDING WITH A
MODEST RELAXATION OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS INTO LATE
WEEK. TO START...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL HOLD WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...A WEDGE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST...AND THE TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NORTHEAST WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THEN...ELEVATED NORTHEAST
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO LATE WEEK...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA
CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FWA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
627 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR IN THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS SHOWING A 20 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH
MAY HELP TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER A BIT DISTURBED AND WILL SUPPORT
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. SOME ISOLATED FOG POSSIBLE NEAR
BODIES OF WATER AND IN SUSCEPTIBLE LOW LYING AREAS WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
COAST MONDAY AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. AT THE
SURFACE...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY THE BEST
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SO
HAVE KEPT POPS LOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES SETTING UP A WEDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE FA. HAVE
CONTINUED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES BY BLENDING LOCAL WEDGE TOOL INTO
MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN CAD SETUP.
MODELS ERODE THE CAD ON WEDNESDAY BUT SINCE MODELS OFTEN ERODE THE
WEDGE PREMATURELY...AM LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE FOR NOW. THE MODELS SHOW LESS MOISTURE THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH A MOISTURE
RETURN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FRIDAY...BUT STILL KEEPS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND GREATER LIFT NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS NEAR THE COAST. A LIGHT S TO SW WIND
TODAY HAS PROVIDED SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...BUT STILL FAIRLY DRY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. AREA OF STRATOCU
CLOUDINESS...WITH BASES ABOVE VFR LEVEL...CURRENTLY ACROSS N GA INTO
UPSTATE SC. MODELS AND SATL TRENDS SUGGEST THIS CLOUDINESS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR TERMINALS THIS EVENING. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME INDICATIONS OF A SW
25 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AT CAE WOULD IMPEDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO RIDGE AXIS
WOULD BE LESS. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO HIGHER NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAIN...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE DEWPOINT GRADIENT
JUST SOUTH OF OGB. SREF AND RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTING FOG...MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN JUST SOUTH OF OGB. WILL RESTRICT FOG MENTION
TO THE FOG PRONE SITES...WITH SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN AT AGS...AND WILL THROW IN TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT OGB.
ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z SUN WITH S TO SW WINDS DEVELOPING
AGAIN BY 15Z...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS IN PLACE JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE
MON/TUE...WITH CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU EARLY WED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
617 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COLD WEATHER FOR INDIANA. THE HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST OF INDIANA LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN ADDITION TO CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COLD WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. THEN
SLOWLY THROUGH MID WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DID NOT HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
FLURRIES/BORDERLINE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WHICH OCCURRED OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT...AND HAVE SINCE
EXITED THE REGION. KNOWING THIS...AND SEEING THE HRRR AND SREF
DEVELOPING LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS MOVING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA FROM
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED PUTTING IN AT
LEAST A MENTION OF FLURRIES. AS IS CUSTOMARY WITH THESE TYPE OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP SITUATIONS THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING NOTHING BUT COMPLETELY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
CONDITIONS TODAY. BASED ON TRENDS UPSTREAM...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THESE RETURNS ARE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE SO WILL REFRAIN FROM EVEN
PUTTING FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING TO SEE IF FLURRIES OR
EVEN -SN NEEDS TO BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...AFTER THIS MORNING/S POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES...THE REST
OF TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO AN
UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS 33 (NORTHEAST) TO LOW 40S
(SOUTHWEST CWA).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
TONIGHT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THE
LOWS WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THANKS TO THE CHANGE TO
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL JUST KEEP ON CLIMBING RIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AS STRONG WARM AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS A SURFACE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT SOME WEAK CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP
POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH VERY WEAK CHANCES UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONSIDERING THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND
HIGHER PWATS AND MOISTURE. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO
AT LEAST WIDESPREAD CHANCE WITH EVEN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE AND EVEN BUMPED UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON VERY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. AND ACTUALLY INCREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY FOR
SAME REASON...AND ALSO FACTORED IN CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND CLOUDY
SKIES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...FOR SUNDAY UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. VERY
IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING NORMAL HIGHS ARE MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
A FRONT SOUTH OF INDIANA AND AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY...BUT
THESE CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND THE WAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME VARIABILITY FROM WEDNESDAY ON AND WITH A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THERE IS LITTLE TO KEY IN ON SO WILL JUST ACCEPT
INITIALIZATION...YIELDING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY WITH A
WARM UP.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 615 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS OR SO THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES BUT KBMG. SHOULD SEE MAINLY MID LEVEL
CEILINGS TODAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO DEVELOP NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT SNOW AT KLAF BUT WILL LEAVE THIS OUT ELSEWHERE AS IT COULD
STAY NORTH OF THE OTHER SITES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COLD WEATHER FOR INDIANA. THE HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST OF INDIANA LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN ADDITION TO CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COLD WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. THEN
SLOWLY THROUGH MID WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DID NOT HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
FLURRIES/BORDERLINE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WHICH OCCURRED OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT...AND HAVE SINCE
EXITED THE REGION. KNOWING THIS...AND SEEING THE HRRR AND SREF
DEVELOPING LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS MOVING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA FROM
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED PUTTING IN AT
LEAST A MENTION OF FLURRIES. AS IS CUSTOMARY WITH THESE TYPE OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP SITUATIONS THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING NOTHING BUT COMPLETELY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
CONDITIONS TODAY. BASED ON TRENDS UPSTREAM...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THESE RETURNS ARE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE SO WILL REFRAIN FROM EVEN
PUTTING FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING TO SEE IF FLURRIES OR
EVEN -SN NEEDS TO BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...AFTER THIS MORNING/S POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES...THE REST
OF TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO AN
UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS 33 (NORTHEAST) TO LOW 40S
(SOUTHWEST CWA).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
TONIGHT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THE
LOWS WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THANKS TO THE CHANGE TO
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL JUST KEEP ON CLIMBING RIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AS STRONG WARM AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS A SURFACE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT SOME WEAK CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP
POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH VERY WEAK CHANCES UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONSIDERING THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND
HIGHER PWATS AND MOISTURE. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO
AT LEAST WIDESPREAD CHANCE WITH EVEN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE AND EVEN BUMPED UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON VERY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. AND ACTUALLY INCREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY FOR
SAME REASON...AND ALSO FACTORED IN CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND CLOUDY
SKIES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...FOR SUNDAY UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. VERY
IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING NORMAL HIGHS ARE MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
A FRONT SOUTH OF INDIANA AND AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY...BUT
THESE CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND THE WAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME VARIABILITY FROM WEDNESDAY ON AND WITH A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THERE IS LITTLE TO KEY IN ON SO WILL JUST ACCEPT
INITIALIZATION...YIELDING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY WITH A
WARM UP.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280900Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014
AT KIND CEILINGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AND HAD A
TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS. THIS GROUP HAS ENDED BUT THINK WITH THE
MID LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVING SHORTLY THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL END AS
WELL SO WILL NOT ADD THEM BACK IN AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
SATELLITE SHOWS LOWER CEILINGS 030-040 IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING UP
ACROSS THE AREA. APPEARS MOST OF THESE CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT
AT THE TAF SITES BY ISSUANCE TIME...EXCEPT FOR KIND WHICH SHOULD
SCATTER OUT WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 050. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME 170-190 DEGREES AT 8-11 KTS BY LATE MORNING
FRIDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
337 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COLD WEATHER FOR INDIANA. THE HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST OF INDIANA LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN ADDITION TO CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COLD WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. THEN SLOWLY
THROUGH MID WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS A SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DID NOT HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
FLURRIES/BORDERLINE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WHICH OCCURRED OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT...AND HAVE SINCE
EXITED THE REGION. KNOWING THIS...AND SEEING THE HRRR AND SREF
DEVELOPING LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS MOVING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA FROM
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED PUTTING IN AT
LEAST A MENTION OF FLURRIES. AS IS CUSTOMARY WITH THESE TYPE OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP SITUATIONS THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING NOTHING BUT COMPLETELY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
CONDITIONS TODAY. BASED ON TRENDS UPSTREAM...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THESE RETURNS ARE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE SO WILL REFRAIN FROM EVEN
PUTTING FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING TO SEE IF FLURRIES OR
EVEN -SN NEEDS TO BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...AFTER THIS MORNING/S POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES...THE REST
OF TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO AN
UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS 33 (NORTHEAST) TO LOW 40S
(SOUTHWEST CWA).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
TONIGHT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THE
LOWS WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THANKS TO THE CHANGE TO
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL JUST KEEP ON CLIMBING RIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AS STRONG WARM AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS A SURFACE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT SOME WEAK CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP
POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH VERY WEAK CHANCES UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONSIDERING THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND
HIGHER PWATS AND MOISTURE. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO
AT LEAST WIDESPREAD CHANCE WITH EVEN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE AND EVEN BUMPED UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON VERY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. AND ACTUALLY INCREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY FOR
SAME REASON...AND ALSO FACTORED IN CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND CLOUDY
SKIES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...FOR SUNDAY UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. VERY
IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING NORMAL HIGHS ARE MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
A FRONT SOUTH OF INDIANA AND AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY...BUT
THESE CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND THE WAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME VARIABILITY FROM WEDNESDAY ON AND WITH A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THERE IS LITTLE TO KEY IN ON SO WILL JUST ACCEPT
INITIALIZATION...YIELDING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY WITH A WARM
UP.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014
SATELLITE SHOWS LOWER CEILINGS 030-040 IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING UP
ACROSS THE AREA. APPEARS MOST OF THESE CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT
AT THE TAF SITES BY ISSUANCE TIME...EXCEPT FOR KIND WHICH SHOULD
SCATTER OUT WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 050. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME 170-190 DEGREES AT 8-11 KTS BY LATE MORNING
FRIDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JAS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
319 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND H85 WAA IS AIDING TO ADVECT A WARM
FRONT INTO THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND TO THE MID AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE SNOW PACK MELTING
WITH THIS WAA. DEWPOINTS ARE RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF
FOG AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
IT IS CLEAR THAT THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THE NAM OVER DOES THE
CURRENT SNOW COVER. WITH STRONG H85 WAA THE NAM POPS LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE GFS HAS SOMETHING
SIMILAR...BUT NOT AS BULLISH. A LOOK AT THE MODEL FIELDS AND
OBSERVATIONS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THERE IS NOT A GOOD CHANCE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE OR FORCING FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. BELIEVE THAT THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FOG DUE TO OVERRUNNING WARM AIR OVER A MELTING SNOW
PACK. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 8-10KTS TONIGHT WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS WIND WILL MAKE FOG DEVELOPMENT
PATCHY TONIGHT . HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT
THROUGH THE AREA...ALSO INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER A
LARGE AREA.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S SOUTH. DID NOT USE ANY OF THE NAM GUIDANCE FOR TEMP FORECASTS
AS THE NAM KEEPS SNOW PACK AROUND A THUS LOWERS TEMPS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE UNDER DOWN AS H85 WAA DROVE TEMPS HIGHER.
THE RUC HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON HIGHS AND TRENDS WITH TEMPS TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE NORTHWEST CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT BUT WITH AMERICAN MODELS
VERIFYING TOO MOIST OVER BL AND ENOUGH OF GRADIENT PRE-FRONTAL
FOR 5-10+ MPH WINDS AND TYPICALLY NOT FAVORED VEERING
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION I HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION ATTIM. DECENT
TEMP GRADIENT BY 12Z SUN WITH 20S FAR NORTHWEST CWA POST-FRONTAL
CONTRAST TO UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FAR SOUTHEAST CWA.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO OCCUR IN THE AM
THROUGH MIDDAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
BE EXITING FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA BY MIDDAY. ENSUING COLD
ADVECTION ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WILL RESULT IN
FALLING TEMPS DESPITE DECREASING CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL PM
SUNSHINE. SUNDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED CLEARING EARLY WITH CANADIAN
HIGH AND ATTENDANT STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN. LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT COMPLETE BOTTOM OUT
ON LOWS AND WITH LOSS OF SNOW COVER LEANED TOWARD WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE BLEND...WITH MAINLY TEENS FOR LOWS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST CWA. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH WINDS WILL PRODUCE
BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS IN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...DRY AND CONTINUED COLD WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AS CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10
DEGS. IF ANY LONGER DURATION OF LIGHT OR CALM WINDS THEN LOWS MAY
BE STILL 2-4 DEGS TOO WARM SOME LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
OHIO VLY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING RETURN
FLOW USHERING IN WARMER AIR FOR REBOUND ON TEMPS INTO THE 30S
FOR HIGHS MANY AREAS. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS TO KEEP LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUPPORT A LIGHT PCPN
EVENT AS EJECTING ENERGY FROM ROCKIES MEETS UP WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE. CHALLENGE THOUGH IS MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SURFACE AND UPPER FEATURES AND AS RESULT
INSTEAD OF PLACING HIGHER POPS FOR WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE ONLY 12
HOUR EVENT AT BEST... HAVE PLACED SMALL POPS OVER 24+ HOUR PERIOD
FOCUSING ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ATTIM. PCPN TYPE APPEARS
TO BE MAINLY RAIN BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT
WINTRY MIX IN SOME AREAS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE MODERATING TO CLOSER
TO NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION COULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FG OR BR
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM. SNOW MELT COULD LEAD TO SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY AT BRL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANYTHING LESS THAN MVFR...HOWEVER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LIFR FOR A LARGE AREA. BELIEVE THAT GUIDANCE IS DOING A POOR JOB
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL ONLY GO MVFR AT BRL AND VFR ELSEWHERE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
757 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
PER THE LATEST NAM...RAP AND HRRR MODEL RUNS...SPED UP THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH THESE SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASSES. IT WILL LIKELY REACH I-70 BY 3AM...HUTCHINSON BY
5AM...WICHITA-EL DORADO-HARPER BY 6-7AM...AND PARSONS BY 11AM-
NOON. CONSEQUENTLY...LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS BY QUITE A BIT DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ADK
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
ITS BEEN A SUNNY AND VERY WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS KICT COUNTRY AS
SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS HAVE KICKED TEMPERATURES TO AROUND
70. BY REACHING 72 DEGREES AT 2 PM...RUSSELL SET A RECORD WHICH
HAS EASILY BROKEN THE MARK OF 68 SET IN 2003.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
REST OF THE WEEKEND:
THE "STAR" OF THE SHOW CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
CURVES FROM A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN ACROSS
SOUTHERN SD TO NORTHERN WY. THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER DECK
TROF EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE WA/OR BORDER. THE UPPER
TROF WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY THEN SPRINTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE
PROCESS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD CURVE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
THROUGH CENTRAL KS...TO THE KS/CO BORDER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS SHARP AND WITH THE COLD
SURGE ARRIVING CENTRAL KS SUNDAY MORNING AND SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON NEARLY ALL AREAS (THE EXCEPTION IS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS) WILL EXPERIENCE FALLING TEMPERATURES AS
SUNDAY PROGRESSES. THE COLD FRONT HAS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE TO
PLAY WITH AND AS SUCH CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION REMAIN VERY
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE DOWN STAIRWELLS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN RUSSELL TO THE LOW 20S IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS. NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS WILL PUT A BITE
INTO THE AIR FOR SURE AS STRONG(!) CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY FROM
SUNDAY THRU MONDAY.
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
AFTER A VERY CHILLY START A FAIRLY RAPID WARMUP IS SLATED FOR THE
REGION AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS LONG THE FRONT RANGE TO
ALLOW SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS TO RETURN TO KS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL VISIT THE NEIGHBORHOOD FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK-WEEK AS A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS WOULD
EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF WOULD EXPERIENCE A
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIXTURE (ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT). A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WILL PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND THEREBY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS FOR
A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ADDITIONALLY...AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN ROUGHLY
10-15Z AT CNU...CANNOT RULE OUT SCT-BKN IFR CIGS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE NAM MODEL OVERDOING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTENING THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...SO ONLY WENT SCT009 FOR
NOW AT CNU.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 37 38 17 33 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 34 38 15 32 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 36 37 16 32 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 39 40 18 33 / 0 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 42 43 20 34 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 30 34 12 31 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 32 36 13 32 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 31 36 16 32 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 33 37 15 31 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 52 56 23 34 / 0 10 10 10
CHANUTE 48 49 20 33 / 0 10 10 10
IOLA 46 48 19 33 / 0 10 10 0
PARSONS-KPPF 50 52 21 34 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
531 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE FORECAST WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RIGHT NOW, A SURFACE TROUGH WAS IN EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. THIS
HAS HELPED WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING IN WARM AIR ACROSS MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT 1 PM CST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS
IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S, AND I EXPECT A FEW LOWER 80S TO OCCUR
BY 3 PM. WINDS HAVE MAINTAIN WITHIN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE, AND I
EXPECT THEY WILL BE UNTIL SUNDOWN.
THERE IS A STRONG COLD FRONT EVIDENT ON THE SURFACE MAP, AND WAS
APPROXIMATELY FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA, AND THEN STRETCHED WEST-NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MONTANA.
THERE ARE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT, AND A
RATHER INDIRECT STEERING FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS FRONT DOWN INTO
NORTHERN KANSAS BY 06Z, SOUTHWARD THROUGH ABOUT HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z, AND DEEP INTO OKLAHOMA BY 18Z ON SUNDAY.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 30F DEGREES
IN THE NORTH NEAR HAYS, TO THE MID 30S IN DODGE CITY AND MEDICINE
LODGE, TO THE UPPER 30S NEAR ELKHART. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS
MOVE INTO THE AREA NORTH OF I-70 TONIGHT, AND THOSE CLOUDS WILL
LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT
SHARPLY TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND THEN MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THERE MAY BE WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 16G26MPH RANGE, WHICH WILL MAKE THE CHANGE OVER FEEL EVEN
COLDER.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY UP NORTH,
BASICALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM STAFFORD COUNTY TO HODGEMAN COUNTY
TO SCOTT CITY. MAX TEMPS NORTH OF I-70 WILL STRUGGLE GET OUT OF
THE MID 30S, THEN SLOWLY FALLING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
DIURNAL TREND OF LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON COULD SPREAD
A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AREAS,
BUT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE A THICK AS THEY WILL BE UP NORTH. THERE
SHOULD BE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN A ZONE FROM
NORTHEASTERN KEARNY COUNTY TO DODGE CITY TO PRATT COUNTY. THE
FRONT WILL BE SLOWER MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS
OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
SUNDAY NEAR THE COLORADO AND OKLAHOMA BORDERS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY TUESDAY. DRY AIR CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS AROUND 0 F AND LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL BE FOUND EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH
VERY LITTLE OF A WARM UP ON MONDAY, OWING ONLY TO INSOLATION WORKING
AGAINST WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TO NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE TENDENCY.
LOWS EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COLDER MOS
TEMPERATURES WITH SUCH DRY AIR AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THE SLOW WARMUP WILL STRUGGLE THROUGHOUT E20S MOST OF THE
DAY AND MAY NOT REACH THE FREEZING POINTS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS FROM
PLACES LIKE HAYS TO PRATT.
ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, A RAPID WARMING WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY DRIVEN LARGELY BY
BOUNDARY LAYER ADIABATIC DOWNSLOPE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND +10 DEGREES C ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS, SUGGESTING WARMEST
TEMPERATURES AROUND SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WITH NOT AS WARM TEMPS
AT MEDICINE LODGE. HERE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO
AROUND THE MID 50S NEAR THE COLORADO LINE ARE MOST LIKELY.
A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SEASONALLY NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF HE FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE WEST
COAST LOW WILL SPREAD LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE QUITE
DRY. MORE MODEL AGREEMENT IS COMING TOGETHER BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS AFTER 160 HOURS FOR DEEP MOIST ASCENT RAINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS (TX PANHANDLE THROUGH WRN KS).
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR RAINS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REGION
OVERLAPPED WITH BETTER ASCENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
ADVECTION (SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AS THIS FRONT PASSES THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BASED ON THE 18Z
NAM AND LATEST HRRR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR AT HYS AROUND
12Z AND THEN DDC AND GCK BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO
THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT THE NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY IN
THE HYS AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH SUGGESTS
A PERIOD OF AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS. HRRR NOT AS EXCITED ABOUT
STATUS POTENTIAL SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
AT HYS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z BUT NOT INTRODUCE CEILINGS BELOW 3000FT
AGL AT THIS TIME AT DDC AND GCK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 35 45 13 31 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 32 46 11 32 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 40 62 16 33 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 33 59 13 32 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 30 35 9 29 / 0 0 0 0
P28 35 50 16 32 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1216 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
OR SLEET LATER TODAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 20S TODAY...AND REMAIN THEIR OVERNIGHT.
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TIED TO THE H850-H700 WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCED ROUGHLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THIS BAND WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN MN WESTERN
WI...AND AS A RESULT DROPPED THE UPSTREAM COUNTIES FROM THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.
LATER TODAY ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SEEMS TO BE HANDLED BEST BY THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP13.
THE CONCERN WITH THIS FEATURE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
FALLING THROUGH A WARM LAYER WHICH BY 18Z IS FORECAST TO BE +3C AT
KMSP AND EVEN WARMER AT POINTS SOUTHWARD. THE SURFACE WILL STILL
BE IN THE 20S...SO THIS WOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE JUST SOUTH OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR...REACHING EAU CLAIRE BY LATE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD ONLY BE 1 OR 2 HUNDREDTHS...BUT EVEN THOSE MEAGER AMOUNTS
COULD LEAD TO SLICK ROADWAYS. FOR NOW INCREASED THE POPS AND
TRENDED TOWARDS THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HOPWRF AND HRRR WHICH
HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF THIS PRECIP. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH H850
AIR OF +5 TO +7 WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...AS SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE PREVAILING STORY SATURDAY
WITH A WMFNT WELL N OF THE WFO MPX CWFA AND AN INCOMING ARCTIC
HIGH PRES AIRMASS THAT LOOKS TO DROP THE HAMMER ON TEMPERATURES
GOING INTO SUNDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION SO SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE
TO INCREASED MOISTURE PROMOTING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER A DECENT
SNOWPACK AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD NVA KEEPING PRECIP N OF THE AREA.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...THE STRONG WAA WILL FORCE HIGHS INTO THE
UPR 30S AND EVEN LWR 40S. BY LATE EVENING...A POTENT CDFNT WILL
DROP THRU THE CWFA...WHICH WILL HELP SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE CLOUD
COVER BUT IS NOT XPCTD TO PRODUCE MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP FOR THE
CWFA. WINDS WILL KICK UP BUT THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DROP TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE LWR TEENS TO LWR 20S. THE ARCTIC HIGH PRES AIRMASS
WILL PERSIST THRU MON...PRODUCING HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AS THE HIGH PRES AREA
SHIFTS OFF TO THE E FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 20S...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCES OF PRECIP GOING THROUGH
THE WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SOME INDICATIONS OF A MORE ORGANIZED LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL CONUS MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK
BUT MODEL CONSENSUS...AND HENCE FORECAST CONFIDENCE...REMAINS LOW
IN THIS THINKING SO HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THRU NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE NEXT 6 HOURS DEALING WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OVERALL..ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. THE NAM HAS OVERDONE ITS MOISTURE ANALYSIS AND
IS AFFECTING ITS PROFILES THROUGH TONIGHT. STARTING OFF...A BATCH
OF MOSTLY FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN IS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THANKFULLY...THE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS
CURRENTLY ON RADAR SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF VIRGA IN SOME
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHERN MN. IN ADDITION...THE PRECIP THAT
IS REACHING THE GROUND WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG...SO AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE VERY LIGHT. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE WORKING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA.
IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER AND FOG POTENTIAL...I QUESTION NAM
SOUNDING MOISTURE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. CONSIDERING THE
SUITE OF GUIDANCE AT HAND HOWEVER...ITS CLEAR THAT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARMER AND DRIER AIR
TO THE FA. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS NEAR THE SURFACE AS
THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRAPPING TO ALLOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
HRRR INDICATES LOW STRATUS BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER THE DRYING
OCCURRING ABOVE 900-850H...SO INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW.
KMSP...THIS IS AN EVOLVING FORECAST SITUATION. BOUTS OF FZDZ
APPEAR MORE LIKELY FROM 19-21Z HAS AS BEEN OBSERVED UPSTREAM OF
MSP. OTHERWISE...WE CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE EDGE OF VFR TO THE
WEST. STILL...EXPECTING THE CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING FORECAST BEYOND 00Z IS QUITE LOW.
SOUTHWESTERLY DRY AIR ADVECTION COULD PREVENT RESTRICTIONS
TONIGHT...BUT WENT WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST BECAUSE THE
STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION LENDS ME TO BELIEVE WE`LL GET ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW IT TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS...BECOMING S LATE.
TUE...VFR. WINDS S AT 15G20KTS...BECOMING W.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
459 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 447 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
OR SLEET LATER TODAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 20S TODAY...AND REMAIN THEIR OVERNIGHT.
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TIED TO THE H850-H700 WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCED ROUGHLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THIS BAND WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN MN WESTERN
WI...AND AS A RESULT DROPPED THE UPSTREAM COUNTIES FROM THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.
LATER TODAY ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SEEMS TO BE HANDLED BEST BY THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP13.
THE CONCERN WITH THIS FEATURE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
FALLING THROUGH A WARM LAYER WHICH BY 18Z IS FORECAST TO BE +3C AT
KMSP AND EVEN WARMER AT POINTS SOUTHWARD. THE SURFACE WILL STILL
BE IN THE 20S...SO THIS WOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE JUST SOUTH OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR...REACHING EAU CLAIRE BY LATE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD ONLY BE 1 OR 2 HUNDREDTHS...BUT EVEN THOSE MEAGER AMOUNTS
COULD LEAD TO SLICK ROADWAYS. FOR NOW INCREASED THE POPS AND
TRENDED TOWARDS THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HOPWRF AND HRRR WHICH
HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF THIS PRECIP. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH H850
AIR OF +5 TO +7 WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...AS SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE PREVAILING STORY SATURDAY
WITH A WMFNT WELL N OF THE WFO MPX CWFA AND AN INCOMING ARCTIC
HIGH PRES AIRMASS THAT LOOKS TO DROP THE HAMMER ON TEMPERATURES
GOING INTO SUNDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION SO SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE
TO INCREASED MOISTURE PROMOTING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER A DECENT
SNOWPACK AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD NVA KEEPING PRECIP N OF THE AREA.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...THE STRONG WAA WILL FORCE HIGHS INTO THE
UPR 30S AND EVEN LWR 40S. BY LATE EVENING...A POTENT CDFNT WILL
DROP THRU THE CWFA...WHICH WILL HELP SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE CLOUD
COVER BUT IS NOT XPCTD TO PRODUCE MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP FOR THE
CWFA. WINDS WILL KICK UP BUT THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DROP TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE LWR TEENS TO LWR 20S. THE ARCTIC HIGH PRES AIRMASS
WILL PERSIST THRU MON...PRODUCING HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AS THE HIGH PRES AREA
SHIFTS OFF TO THE E FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 20S...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCES OF PRECIP GOING THROUGH
THE WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SOME INDICATIONS OF A MORE ORGANIZED LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL CONUS MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK
BUT MODEL CONSENSUS...AND HENCE FORECAST CONFIDENCE...REMAINS LOW
IN THIS THINKING SO HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THRU NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE TAFS. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING
THE MOISTURE...AND THUS HAVE ELIMINATED THE PERSISTENT MVFR
STRATUS THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE. THE LATEST OBS...LAMP
GUIDANCE...AND HOPWRF CLOUD PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THIS. CHANCES
REMAIN FOR AN AREA OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WI
CENTERED AROUND 18Z. LATE TONIGHT SOME SLEET IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN MN...INCLUDING KAXN AND KSTC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR STRATUS RETURNING...BUT THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEMS OVERDONE.
KMSP...
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HOPWRF/HRRR HAVE DELAYED THE MIXED PRECIP
UNTIL AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. IT STILL APPEARS SOME LIGHT
FZDZ/PL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 1-2
HUNDREDTHS. WENT OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...FOR REASONS DESCRIBED IN THE GENERAL DISCUSSION.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS...BECOMING S LATE.
TUE...VFR. WINDS S AT 15G20KTS...BECOMING W.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ045-
052-053.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WIZ014>016.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
434 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
OR SLEET LATER TODAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 20S TODAY...AND REMAIN THEIR OVERNIGHT.
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TIED TO THE H850-H700 WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCED ROUGHLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THIS BAND WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN MN WESTERN
WI...AND AS A RESULT DROPPED THE UPSTREAM COUNTIES FROM THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.
LATER TODAY ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SEEMS TO BE HANDLED BEST BY THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP13.
THE CONCERN WITH THIS FEATURE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
FALLING THROUGH A WARM LAYER WHICH BY 18Z IS FORECAST TO BE +3C AT
KMSP AND EVEN WARMER AT POINTS SOUTHWARD. THE SURFACE WILL STILL
BE IN THE 20S...SO THIS WOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE JUST SOUTH OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR...REACHING EAU CLAIRE BY LATE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD ONLY BE 1 OR 2 HUNDREDTHS...BUT EVEN THOSE MEAGER AMOUNTS
COULD LEAD TO SLICK ROADWAYS. FOR NOW INCREASED THE POPS AND
TRENDED TOWARDS THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HOPWRF AND HRRR WHICH
HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF THIS PRECIP. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH H850
AIR OF +5 TO +7 WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...AS SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE PREVAILING STORY SATURDAY
WITH A WMFNT WELL N OF THE WFO MPX CWFA AND AN INCOMING ARCTIC
HIGH PRES AIRMASS THAT LOOKS TO DROP THE HAMMER ON TEMPERATURES
GOING INTO SUNDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION SO SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE
TO INCREASED MOISTURE PROMOTING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER A DECENT
SNOWPACK AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD NVA KEEPING PRECIP N OF THE AREA.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...THE STRONG WAA WILL FORCE HIGHS INTO THE
UPR 30S AND EVEN LWR 40S. BY LATE EVENING...A POTENT CDFNT WILL
DROP THRU THE CWFA...WHICH WILL HELP SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE CLOUD
COVER BUT IS NOT XPCTD TO PRODUCE MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP FOR THE
CWFA. WINDS WILL KICK UP BUT THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DROP TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE LWR TEENS TO LWR 20S. THE ARCTIC HIGH PRES AIRMASS
WILL PERSIST THRU MON...PRODUCING HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AS THE HIGH PRES AREA
SHIFTS OFF TO THE E FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 20S...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCES OF PRECIP GOING THROUGH
THE WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SOME INDICATIONS OF A MORE ORGANIZED LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL CONUS MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK
BUT MODEL CONSENSUS...AND HENCE FORECAST CONFIDENCE...REMAINS LOW
IN THIS THINKING SO HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THRU NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014
A BAND OF WAA SNOW WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO IFR FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND OF SNOW...A LOSS
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS/ICE CRYSTALS IS STILL SEEN IN SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON OCCURRENCE AND A PROB
GROUP WAS USED AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI FRIDAY
EVENING. PROFILE DATA INDICATES A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER
ALOFT WITH SLEET BEING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING AS IT HAS RECENTLY BEGUN TO SHOW UP IN
MODEL DATA THIS EVENING. AGAIN...USED A PROB GROUP FROM KSTC
THROUGH KEAU. SE WINDS 6-12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BECOMING ESE 4-6 KNOTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KMSP...A BAND OF IFR SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE 06Z-08Z TIME
FRAME WITH MVFR CONDITIONS/-SN THROUGH DAYBREAK. SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVERNIGHT UP TO AN INCH. A THREAT REMAINS FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. MOVED THE OCCURRENCE TO A
PROB GROUP DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. PUSHED CEILINGS TO VFR
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AIRFIELD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 15-20 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10KTS...BECOMING S LATE.
TUE...VFR. WINDS S 15-20 KTS...BECOMING W.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ045-
052-053.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WIZ014>016.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
946 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 937 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
Made some minor tweeks to the forecast for tonight. Boosted mins a
tad in light of modest and increasing southerly winds and rising
surface dewpoints. Also delayed the arrival of cloud cover. Stratus
that was across the eastern CWA has exited into far southeast IL
and present southwest to westerly lower trop winds would suggest
it won`t spread back to the east. Rather low-level RH progs from
the RAP and the new 00Z NAM suggest stratus will redevelop across
northern AR and southern MO betweem 08-12z, and then become more
widespread across the entire area on Sunday morning. Strong cold
front is still poised to blast across the CWA on Sunday accompanied
by gusty northerly winds and sharply falling temperatures. Temperatures
could drop 25-30 degrees in less than an hour.
Glass
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 221 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
This period remains rather quiet. Biggest question thru the period
will be cloud cover. Area of ST over the ern portions of the CWA has
finally started to break up as of 20z. Mdls have not been handling
these clouds well and therefore have low confidence in trends
overnight. Moisture return is apparent in latest sat image with CU
field across the srn states. Mdls suggest this moisture will move
nwd with ST developing across much of the srn half of the CWA by
morning. The approaching cdfnt will also bring clouds, but shud lag
behind the fnt slightly. Some uncertainty exists with these clouds
as snow cover may be aiding in development. Regardless, with strong
sly winds expected thru the night, clouds are not expected to have a
large impact on temps.
Mdls are in good agreement thru this period. With the cdfnt expected
to reach the nrn portions of the CWA around or just after 12z,
expect temps to remain close to steady thru much of the night. Given
the uncertainty with cloud cover, have trended twd a compromise.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Main focus thru this period will be precip chances and p-type for
Sun night and Mon.
Uncertainty regarding cloud cover mentioned above continues thru
much of Sun. However, the one difference is that amount of
post-frontal cloud cover will have an impact on temps during the
day. However, given temps are currently dropping some 20 degrees
with fropa with nearly full sun, believe current forecast trends are
good.
Believe mdls are producing too much QPF ahead of the cdfnt. Mdls do
show a fair amount of low level lift just behind the fnt, mainly
associated with frontogenesis. However, mdls also have QPF ahead of
the fnt. While DZ can not be completely ruled out, believe this
precip is bad and caused by unrealistic moisture return within the
mdl. Have therefore focused PoPs along and just behind the cdfnt.
This changes slightly for Sun night, mainly during the eve hours. An
approaching s/w and better low level forcing shud help enhance
precip during this time, but likely will be just SE of the CWA. Have
therefore lowered PoPs thru Sun night, but kept highest PoPs along
srn and sern portions of the CWA. While mdls are in fairly good
agreement regarding timing of fropa, differences exist regarding how
fast the cold air will push in behind the fnt. The NAM/ECMWF/local
WRF are currently in good agreement in temp trends thru Mon and have
trended twd these solns. Mdls do agree in keeping precip as RA/FZRA.
Do have some minor ice accumulations across far srn portions of the
CWA. However, with 4 inch soil temps currently in the mid 40 degree
range and 2 inch temps in the lower 50s per the MO mesonet sites, do
not currently anticipate much accumulation on the ground and shud be
confined to elevated surfaces.
Mon night and Tues are expected to remain dry. Have trended warmer
than the MET/MAV guidance as the sfc ridge shud be S of the region
and sly flow shud have returned. However, given some uncertainty in
amount of cloud cover possible, these temps may need to be lowered
with future updates.
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Focus turns to precip chances thru much of the period. While mdls
are in good agreement at the beginning of the period, differences
are rather large by the end of the forecast period. Due to this
uncertainty and low confidence, have made minor changes to the prev
forecast. Do anticipate temps to moderate based on height rises over
the region. However, p-types may present a problem and may need to
be adjusted with future updates.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
Southerly flow to persist through the overnight hours with high
clouds streaming in ahead of strong cold front. Stratus to stay
southeast of taf sites tonight so main issue will be LLWS. Kept
mention in all tafs for the overnight hours. Front to move through
region tomorrow. It will move through KUIN by 14z Sunday, KCOU by
17z Sunday and metro area tafs by 20z Sunday. SC deck will develop
mainly along and behind boundary so kept mention tied to frontal
passage. By afternoon, KUIN and KCOU will see winds become gusty
around 25kts from the north. As for any precipitation, moisture
will be limited so left tafs dry for now.
Specifics for KSTL:
Southerly flow to persist through the overnight hours with high
clouds streaming in ahead of strong cold front. Stratus to stay
southeast of metro tonight so main issue will be LLWS. Kept
mention in taf for the overnight hours. Front to move through
region tomorrow. It will move through metro area by 20z Sunday
with winds picking up and veering to the northwest. SC deck will
develop mainly along and behind boundary so kept mention tied to
frontal passage. As for any precipitation, moisture will be
limited so left taf dry for now.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1149 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A CHECK ON UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
NAM...GFS AND RAP MODELS INDICATES AN INCREASE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ALSO INCREASE BY 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR CIRRUS DEVELOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHICH WOULD
SPREAD EAST DURING THE AFTN. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE RANGES FROM
TOTALLY OVERCAST IN THE GFS TO NEARLY NONE IN THE RAP. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE RAP AND NAM ALSO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH NRN NEBRASKA THIS AFTN WHICH WOULD KEEP THE NORTH
MOSTLY IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...DESPITE THE HIGH
CLOUDS...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD SEND HIGHS INTO
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...NEAR RECORD.
TONIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVELS DRYING OUT WHICH WOULD
BE ALL FOR CLEARING...LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING THE IN
THE N/S PLATTE VALLEYS. THE HIGHLANDS STAY MIXED. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE VALLEYS TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...AND FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS LARGELY DRY
ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS /FLURRIES/ WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD NOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS IMPROVING WITH THE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A VERY ANOMALOUSLY WARM DAY FOR SATURDAY.
VERY LITTLE RUN TO RUN CHANGES HAVE BEEN NOTICED ACROSS THE AREA
SO GOOD CONFIDENCE ON A VERY WARM DAY. THE IMPENDING STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL STAY UP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY WITH THE
SURFACE PATTERN SHOWING WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE
WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS WILL GIVE THE AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS. THE MODELS AREN/T PARTICULARLY
STRONG WITH THE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK BUT
DEEPER MIXING INTO THE AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE BREEZY CONDITIONS
IN PLACES. THE STRONGER WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AT 20 TO 30KTS. GOING SOUTH...THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE SEES WINDS AT THE SAME LEVEL ONLY AT 10
TO 15KTS. HAVE INCLUDED THE HIGHER WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
AND LOWER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE FORECAST TODAY. LOOKING
INTO HIGHS...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. THIS
LEAVES HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH LOW 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPERATURES AT
850MB AT 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THINKING THIS WILL
BE CLOSE TO THE HEIGHT OF THE MIXED LAYER...LIKELY HIGHER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SO
AGAIN...ONGOING TEMPERATURES LOOK APPROPRIATE WHICH WILL BE NEAR
RECORD READINGS. THE OTHER CONCERN WITH SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR
IN PLACE WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN BELOW 20
PERCENT...MAINLY FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN
SANDHILLS. AT THIS TIME...THE STRONGER WINDS DON/T LOOK TO
COINCIDE WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS SO NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED
FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES DESPITE THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY WITH 850MB
VALUES LOWERING FROM 13-18C AT 00Z SUNDAY TO -17C TO -10C BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE VERY MINIMAL
ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RAISE INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. ALSO THINKING WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...GOOD SUBSIDENCE...AND A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL ARE GOOD INGREDIENTS FOR BREEZY TO
STRONG WINDS.
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ISN/T VERY IMPRESSIVE AND REALLY
NOT MUCH LIFT IN THE LAYER SO JUST ADDED IN SOME FLURRIES FOR NOW
IN AREAS. THEN...ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTER SOUTH DAKOTA RETURN FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BRING
SOME INCREASED MOISTURE INTO LEVELS BELOW 700MB. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTURE DOES INCREASE...THE LIFT IN THE LAYER ISN/T VERY
IMPRESSIVE SO DIDN/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ADD MEASURABLE SNOW
IN THE FORECAST YET AND JUST INCLUDED SOME FLURRIES FOR PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD AS THE REGION IS INFLUENCED BY
THE COLD AIR /850MB TEMPERATURES AT -12C TO -14C AND A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS. THE AIRMASS IN PLACE WOULD SUGGEST LOWS
BELOW ZERO ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE COMPLETELY
AND BECOME CALM. THIS MAY STAY IN AREAS DIRECTLY UNDER THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SO KEPT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AT THIS
TIME THOUGH DID DROP THEM A FEW DEGREES.
THE NEXT WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE A YO-YO IN TEMPERATURES WITH COLD
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND A BIT WARMER FOR TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE HIGH DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT WITH FAIRLY STRONG RETURN
FLOW OCCURRING INTO TUESDAY TO PUSH OUT THE COLD AIR MASS WITH A
RETURN OF CLOSE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S MOST
PLACES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN ITS TIMING AND OTHER DETAILS. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME BUT IT WILL BRING ANOTHER REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLDER AIR...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE SUNDAY
SYSTEM. THEN THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
BACK TO PERHAPS GET TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS. LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
TODAY...DEWPOINTS WHERE DERIVED FROM 50 PERCENT OF
THE VERY DRY RAP MODEL AND 50 PERCENT OF THE OTHER MODELS. THIS
PRODUCES RH VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT IN THIS AREA AS THE RAP SHOWS A SFC TROF
SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTH. SO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED
BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT GUSTING TO JUST 20 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
516 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A CHECK ON UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
NAM...GFS AND RAP MODELS INDICATES AN INCREASE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ALSO INCREASE BY 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR CIRRUS DEVELOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHICH WOULD
SPREAD EAST DURING THE AFTN. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE RANGES FROM
TOTALLY OVERCAST IN THE GFS TO NEARLY NONE IN THE RAP. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE RAP AND NAM ALSO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH NRN NEBRASKA THIS AFTN WHICH WOULD KEEP THE NORTH
MOSTLY IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...DESPITE THE HIGH
CLOUDS...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD SEND HIGHS INTO
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...NEAR RECORD.
TONIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVELS DRYING OUT WHICH WOULD
BE ALL FOR CLEARING...LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING THE IN
THE N/S PLATTE VALLEYS. THE HIGHLANDS STAY MIXED. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE VALLEYS TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...AND FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS LARGELY DRY
ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS /FLURRIES/ WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD NOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS IMPROVING WITH THE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A VERY ANOMALOUSLY WARM DAY FOR SATURDAY.
VERY LITTLE RUN TO RUN CHANGES HAVE BEEN NOTICED ACROSS THE AREA
SO GOOD CONFIDENCE ON A VERY WARM DAY. THE IMPENDING STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL STAY UP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY WITH THE
SURFACE PATTERN SHOWING WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE
WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS WILL GIVE THE AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS. THE MODELS AREN/T PARTICULARLY
STRONG WITH THE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK BUT
DEEPER MIXING INTO THE AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE BREEZY CONDITIONS
IN PLACES. THE STRONGER WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AT 20 TO 30KTS. GOING SOUTH...THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE SEES WINDS AT THE SAME LEVEL ONLY AT 10
TO 15KTS. HAVE INCLUDED THE HIGHER WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
AND LOWER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE FORECAST TODAY. LOOKING
INTO HIGHS...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. THIS
LEAVES HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH LOW 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPERATURES AT
850MB AT 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THINKING THIS WILL
BE CLOSE TO THE HEIGHT OF THE MIXED LAYER...LIKELY HIGHER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SO
AGAIN...ONGOING TEMPERATURES LOOK APPROPRIATE WHICH WILL BE NEAR
RECORD READINGS. THE OTHER CONCERN WITH SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR
IN PLACE WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN BELOW 20
PERCENT...MAINLY FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN
SANDHILLS. AT THIS TIME...THE STRONGER WINDS DON/T LOOK TO
COINCIDE WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS SO NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED
FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES DESPITE THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY WITH 850MB
VALUES LOWERING FROM 13-18C AT 00Z SUNDAY TO -17C TO -10C BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE VERY MINIMAL
ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RAISE INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. ALSO THINKING WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...GOOD SUBSIDENCE...AND A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL ARE GOOD INGREDIENTS FOR BREEZY TO
STRONG WINDS.
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ISN/T VERY IMPRESSIVE AND REALLY
NOT MUCH LIFT IN THE LAYER SO JUST ADDED IN SOME FLURRIES FOR NOW
IN AREAS. THEN...ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTER SOUTH DAKOTA RETURN FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BRING
SOME INCREASED MOISTURE INTO LEVELS BELOW 700MB. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTURE DOES INCREASE...THE LIFT IN THE LAYER ISN/T VERY
IMPRESSIVE SO DIDN/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ADD MEASURABLE SNOW
IN THE FORECAST YET AND JUST INCLUDED SOME FLURRIES FOR PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD AS THE REGION IS INFLUENCED BY
THE COLD AIR /850MB TEMPERATURES AT -12C TO -14C AND A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS. THE AIRMASS IN PLACE WOULD SUGGEST LOWS
BELOW ZERO ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE COMPLETELY
AND BECOME CALM. THIS MAY STAY IN AREAS DIRECTLY UNDER THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SO KEPT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AT THIS
TIME THOUGH DID DROP THEM A FEW DEGREES.
THE NEXT WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE A YO-YO IN TEMPERATURES WITH COLD
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND A BIT WARMER FOR TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE HIGH DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT WITH FAIRLY STRONG RETURN
FLOW OCCURRING INTO TUESDAY TO PUSH OUT THE COLD AIR MASS WITH A
RETURN OF CLOSE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S MOST
PLACES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN ITS TIMING AND OTHER DETAILS. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME BUT IT WILL BRING ANOTHER REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLDER AIR...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE SUNDAY
SYSTEM. THEN THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
BACK TO PERHAPS GET TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTH.
SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
TODAY...DEWPOINTS WHERE DERIVED FROM 50 PERCENT OF
THE VERY DRY RAP MODEL AND 50 PERCENT OF THE OTHER MODELS. THIS
PRODUCES RH VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT IN THIS AREA AS THE RAP SHOWS A SFC TROF
SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTH. SO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED
BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT GUSTING TO JUST 20 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A CHECK ON UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
NAM...GFS AND RAP MODELS INDICATES AN INCREASE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ALSO INCREASE BY 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR CIRRUS DEVELOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHICH WOULD
SPREAD EAST DURING THE AFTN. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE RANGES FROM
TOTALLY OVERCAST IN THE GFS TO NEARLY NONE IN THE RAP. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE RAP AND NAM ALSO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH NRN NEBRASKA THIS AFTN WHICH WOULD KEEP THE NORTH
MOSTLY IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...DESPITE THE HIGH
CLOUDS...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD SEND HIGHS INTO
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...NEAR RECORD.
TONIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVELS DRYING OUT WHICH WOULD
BE ALL FOR CLEARING...LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING THE IN
THE N/S PLATTE VALLEYS. THE HIGHLANDS STAY MIXED. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE VALLEYS TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...AND FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS LARGELY DRY
ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS /FLURRIES/ WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD NOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS IMPROVING WITH THE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A VERY ANOMALOUSLY WARM DAY FOR SATURDAY.
VERY LITTLE RUN TO RUN CHANGES HAVE BEEN NOTICED ACROSS THE AREA
SO GOOD CONFIDENCE ON A VERY WARM DAY. THE IMPENDING STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL STAY UP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY WITH THE
SURFACE PATTERN SHOWING WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE
WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS WILL GIVE THE AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS. THE MODELS AREN/T PARTICULARLY
STRONG WITH THE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK BUT
DEEPER MIXING INTO THE AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE BREEZY CONDITIONS
IN PLACES. THE STRONGER WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AT 20 TO 30KTS. GOING SOUTH...THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE SEES WINDS AT THE SAME LEVEL ONLY AT 10
TO 15KTS. HAVE INCLUDED THE HIGHER WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
AND LOWER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE FORECAST TODAY. LOOKING
INTO HIGHS...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. THIS
LEAVES HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH LOW 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPERATURES AT
850MB AT 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THINKING THIS WILL
BE CLOSE TO THE HEIGHT OF THE MIXED LAYER...LIKELY HIGHER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SO
AGAIN...ONGOING TEMPERATURES LOOK APPROPRIATE WHICH WILL BE NEAR
RECORD READINGS. THE OTHER CONCERN WITH SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR
IN PLACE WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN BELOW 20
PERCENT...MAINLY FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN
SANDHILLS. AT THIS TIME...THE STRONGER WINDS DON/T LOOK TO
COINCIDE WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS SO NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED
FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES DESPITE THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY WITH 850MB
VALUES LOWERING FROM 13-18C AT 00Z SUNDAY TO -17C TO -10C BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE VERY MINIMAL
ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RAISE INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. ALSO THINKING WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...GOOD SUBSIDENCE...AND A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL ARE GOOD INGREDIENTS FOR BREEZY TO
STRONG WINDS.
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ISN/T VERY IMPRESSIVE AND REALLY
NOT MUCH LIFT IN THE LAYER SO JUST ADDED IN SOME FLURRIES FOR NOW
IN AREAS. THEN...ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTER SOUTH DAKOTA RETURN FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BRING
SOME INCREASED MOISTURE INTO LEVELS BELOW 700MB. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTURE DOES INCREASE...THE LIFT IN THE LAYER ISN/T VERY
IMPRESSIVE SO DIDN/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ADD MEASURABLE SNOW
IN THE FORECAST YET AND JUST INCLUDED SOME FLURRIES FOR PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD AS THE REGION IS INFLUENCED BY
THE COLD AIR /850MB TEMPERATURES AT -12C TO -14C AND A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS. THE AIRMASS IN PLACE WOULD SUGGEST LOWS
BELOW ZERO ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE COMPLETELY
AND BECOME CALM. THIS MAY STAY IN AREAS DIRECTLY UNDER THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SO KEPT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AT THIS
TIME THOUGH DID DROP THEM A FEW DEGREES.
THE NEXT WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE A YO-YO IN TEMPERATURES WITH COLD
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND A BIT WARMER FOR TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE HIGH DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT WITH FAIRLY STRONG RETURN
FLOW OCCURRING INTO TUESDAY TO PUSH OUT THE COLD AIR MASS WITH A
RETURN OF CLOSE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S MOST
PLACES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN ITS TIMING AND OTHER DETAILS. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME BUT IT WILL BRING ANOTHER REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLDER AIR...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE SUNDAY
SYSTEM. THEN THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
BACK TO PERHAPS GET TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014
PATCHY MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AND LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITY APPROACHING 100 PERCENT...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS. HOWEVER FG/BR WILL BE
LOCALIZED. WEST WIND 260-290 WILL INCREASE TO 12-16KT LATE FRIDAY
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
TODAY...DEWPOINTS WHERE DERIVED FROM 50 PERCENT OF
THE VERY DRY RAP MODEL AND 50 PERCENT OF THE OTHER MODELS. THIS
PRODUCES RH VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT IN THIS AREA AS THE RAP SHOWS A SFC TROF
SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTH. SO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED
BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT GUSTING TO JUST 20 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT OTHERWISE NO
MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN A FEW
SPOTS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
SHOWERS AND THE FACT THAT THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WILL KEEP ANY HEADLINES OUT FOR
NOW AND JUST GO WITH A NOWCAST. HOWEVER WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS
IN CASE THE ACTIVITY PERSISTS LONGER THAN EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
WILL MAINTAIN A SCATTERED TYPE POP THIS MORNING OVER THE FCST
AREA. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO DVL
BASIN-LANGDON AREAS. OF MORE INTEREST IS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT
WERE IN EASTERN MT EARLIER THEY ARE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD LISBON-
VALLEY CITY AND WILL MOVE INTO FARGO AREA. COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED
A TAD....BUT PTYPE IS WHAT IS MOST IMPORTANT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WOULD INDICATE SLEET PSBL IN JAMESTOWN BUT THEN MORE OF A SNOW
SOUNDING FARTHER EAST AS DEPTH OF COLD AIR IS QUITE DEEP AS YOU
MOVE EAST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN PREV PTYPE GRIDS WHICH IS SNOW
FOR VALLEY CITY-FARGO AND SOME SLEET/SNOW IN FORMAN/GWINNER AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MODELS HAVE IN GENERAL HANDLED THINGS VERY POORLY LATELY. WHAT WAS
GOING TO BE A DECENT SNOW CLIPPERY SYSTEM LAST NIGHT WAS ANYTHING
BUT. BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINED WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF WHAT WAS
PROGGED 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS MAIN 1 TO 2 INCH BAND WAS FROM MINOT
AREA TO JAMESTOWN TO ALEXANDRIA MN INSTEAD OF BEING FARTHER NORTH.
AMOUNTS WEAKER AS WELL AS FOCUS OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT SEEMED
MORE CONFINED TO ERN SD/WCNTRL MN JUST OUTSIDE OF MAIN PRECIP
BAND. ANYHOW FIRST PRECIP BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EASTERN MN INTO
WISCONSIN. THERE IS A LARGER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW UPSTREAM IN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SW MANITOBA AND TRYING TO SPREAD INTO NCNTRL ND.
LATEST RAP/NAM SEEM OK IN SHOWING THIS LIGHT SNOW SPREADING INTO
NRN VALLEY AND PARTS OF NW MN THIS MORNING BEFORE DRYING UP. THERE
IS AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT FORMED IN ECNTRL MONTANTA
AND IS NOW NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK. RAP HAS SOME PRECIP SURVIVING
AND MOVING INTO PARTS OF ECNTRL OR SE ND 12Z-15Z PERIOD. SO WITH
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND SOUTH KEPT PRETTY BROAD POPS THRU
18Z FRI. TOP DOWN DID SHOW SOME RISK OF SLEET IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ND IF PRECIP REACHES THAT AREA. THIS AFTN PRETTY QUIET MOST
AREAS...THOUGH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FAR NORTH. BUT MAIN
850 MB WARM ADVECTION RETURNS BACK TO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THIS
AFTN AHEAD OF SHROT WAVE AND SFC LOW IN SOUTHERN B.C. THIS SYSTEM
TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAIN AREA OF
WARM ADV SNOWS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. THOUGH DID KEEP SOME POPS
IN NRN FCST AREA AS SRN EDGE MAY IMPACT AREAS ALONG THE BORDER.
QUITE WARM AIR BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY SO HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR LOWS
TONIGHT IN MANY AREAS AND THEN RISING TO SOME LOWER OR MID 30S IN
THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS WHILE NORTH WINDS RETURN
TO DVL BASIN AND FAR NRN VALLEY AS LOW MOVES EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
LOW WILL MOVE EAST THRU NRN MN WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THRU
THE FCST AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH FRONT BUT NOTHING MUCH. VERY
COLD AIRMASS MOVES IN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY STAYING BELOW ZERO
IN FAR NORTHERN ND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SUN NIGHT INTO CNTRL ND
WITH CLEAR SKY AND DID GO A BIT LOWER THAN SUPERBLEND BASED ON WED
NIGHTS LOWS. SUSPECT -20S AGAIN IN THE DVL BASIN.
MONDAY TO THURSDAY...OVERALL DRY AND COLD AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR WEAK AND BRIEF
RIDGING SCOURING OUT THE WELL BELOW NORMAL COLD AIRMASS. NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...RESULTING IN A
LESS COLD AIRMASS...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 18 BELOW RANGE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW APPEARS TO DEVELOP UP THURSDAY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING YIELDING AREAS OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBY THIS MORNING. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY FORECAST
TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH00Z. LOW RISK -FRDZ/PL NEAR THE
BOUNDARY WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD EXPECT SLOW
IMPROVEMENT KDVL-KGFK-KBJI LINE. SOUTH OF BOUNDARY VSBY SHOULD SHOW
GRDL IMPROVEMENT AND DECREASE -SN/PL/-FRDZ RISK. OBS AND LAMP
GUIDANCE SUGGEST VFR AFTER WEAK BOUNDARY LIFT PAST TAF SITE. HOWEVER
TIMING IS VERY PROBLEMATIC AS BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTH.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
946 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN A FEW
SPOTS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
SHOWERS AND THE FACT THAT THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WILL KEEP ANY HEADLINES OUT FOR
NOW AND JUST GO WITH A NOWCAST. HOWEVER WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS
IN CASE THE ACTIVITY PERSISTS LONGER THAN EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
WILL MAINTAIN A SCATTERED TYPE POP THIS MORNING OVER THE FCST
AREA. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO DVL
BASIN-LANGDON AREAS. OF MORE INTEREST IS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT
WERE IN EASTERN MT EARLIER THEY ARE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD LISBON-
VALLEY CITY AND WILL MOVE INTO FARGO AREA. COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED
A TAD....BUT PTYPE IS WHAT IS MOST IMPORTANT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WOULD INDICATE SLEET PSBL IN JAMESTOWN BUT THEN MORE OF A SNOW
SOUNDING FARTHER EAST AS DEPTH OF COLD AIR IS QUITE DEEP AS YOU
MOVE EAST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN PREV PTYPE GRIDS WHICH IS SNOW
FOR VALLEY CITY-FARGO AND SOME SLEET/SNOW IN FORMAN/GWINNER AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MODELS HAVE IN GENERAL HANDLED THINGS VERY POORLY LATELY. WHAT WAS
GOING TO BE A DECENT SNOW CLIPPERY SYSTEM LAST NIGHT WAS ANYTHING
BUT. BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINED WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF WHAT WAS
PROGGED 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS MAIN 1 TO 2 INCH BAND WAS FROM MINOT
AREA TO JAMESTOWN TO ALEXANDRIA MN INSTEAD OF BEING FARTHER NORTH.
AMOUNTS WEAKER AS WELL AS FOCUS OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT SEEMED
MORE CONFINED TO ERN SD/WCNTRL MN JUST OUTSIDE OF MAIN PRECIP
BAND. ANYHOW FIRST PRECIP BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EASTERN MN INTO
WISCONSIN. THERE IS A LARGER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW UPSTREAM IN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SW MANITOBA AND TRYING TO SPREAD INTO NCNTRL ND.
LATEST RAP/NAM SEEM OK IN SHOWING THIS LIGHT SNOW SPREADING INTO
NRN VALLEY AND PARTS OF NW MN THIS MORNING BEFORE DRYING UP. THERE
IS AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT FORMED IN ECNTRL MONTANTA
AND IS NOW NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK. RAP HAS SOME PRECIP SURVIVING
AND MOVING INTO PARTS OF ECNTRL OR SE ND 12Z-15Z PERIOD. SO WITH
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND SOUTH KEPT PRETTY BROAD POPS THRU
18Z FRI. TOP DOWN DID SHOW SOME RISK OF SLEET IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ND IF PRECIP REACHES THAT AREA. THIS AFTN PRETTY QUIET MOST
AREAS...THOUGH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FAR NORTH. BUT MAIN
850 MB WARM ADVECTION RETURNS BACK TO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THIS
AFTN AHEAD OF SHROT WAVE AND SFC LOW IN SOUTHERN B.C. THIS SYSTEM
TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAIN AREA OF
WARM ADV SNOWS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. THOUGH DID KEEP SOME POPS
IN NRN FCST AREA AS SRN EDGE MAY IMPACT AREAS ALONG THE BORDER.
QUITE WARM AIR BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY SO HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR LOWS
TONIGHT IN MANY AREAS AND THEN RISING TO SOME LOWER OR MID 30S IN
THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS WHILE NORTH WINDS RETURN
TO DVL BASIN AND FAR NRN VALLEY AS LOW MOVES EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
LOW WILL MOVE EAST THRU NRN MN WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THRU
THE FCST AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH FRONT BUT NOTHING MUCH. VERY
COLD AIRMASS MOVES IN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY STAYING BELOW ZERO
IN FAR NORTHERN ND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SUN NIGHT INTO CNTRL ND
WITH CLEAR SKY AND DID GO A BIT LOWER THAN SUPERBLEND BASED ON WED
NIGHTS LOWS. SUSPECT -20S AGAIN IN THE DVL BASIN.
MONDAY TO THURSDAY...OVERALL DRY AND COLD AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR WEAK AND BRIEF
RIDGING SCOURING OUT THE WELL BELOW NORMAL COLD AIRMASS. NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...RESULTING IN A
LESS COLD AIRMASS...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 18 BELOW RANGE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW APPEARS TO DEVELOP UP THURSDAY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
A MIXED BACK OF CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND LIKELY THRU TONIGHT WITH
MAJORITY MVFR CIGS 15-25 KFT WITH SOME SCATTERED MVFR CLOUD THEN
CIGS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KTS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BUT TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED IN MOST TAFS SOME MENTION OF
-SN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
710 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
WILL MAINTAIN A SCATTERED TYPE POP THIS MORNING OVER THE FCST
AREA. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO DVL
BASIN-LANGDON AREAS. OF MORE INTEREST IS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT
WERE IN EASTERN MT EARLIER THEY ARE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD LISBON-
VALLEY CITY AND WILL MOVE INTO FARGO AREA. COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED
A TAD....BUT PTYPE IS WHAT IS MOST IMPORTANT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WOULD INDICATE SLEET PSBL IN JAMESTOWN BUT THEN MORE OF A SNOW
SOUNDING FARTHER EAST AS DEPTH OF COLD AIR IS QUITE DEEP AS YOU
MOVE EAST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN PREV PTYPE GRIDS WHICH IS SNOW
FOR VALLEY CITY-FARGO AND SOME SLEET/SNOW IN FORMAN/GWINNER AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MODELS HAVE IN GENERAL HANDLED THINGS VERY POORLY LATELY. WHAT WAS
GOING TO BE A DECENT SNOW CLIPPERY SYSTEM LAST NIGHT WAS ANYTHING
BUT. BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINED WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF WHAT WAS
PROGGED 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS MAIN 1 TO 2 INCH BAND WAS FROM MINOT
AREA TO JAMESTOWN TO ALEXANDRIA MN INSTEAD OF BEING FARTHER NORTH.
AMOUNTS WEAKER AS WELL AS FOCUS OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT SEEMED
MORE CONFINED TO ERN SD/WCNTRL MN JUST OUTSIDE OF MAIN PRECIP
BAND. ANYHOW FIRST PRECIP BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EASTERN MN INTO
WISCONSIN. THERE IS A LARGER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW UPSTREAM IN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SW MANITOBA AND TRYING TO SPREAD INTO NCNTRL ND.
LATEST RAP/NAM SEEM OK IN SHOWING THIS LIGHT SNOW SPREADING INTO
NRN VALLEY AND PARTS OF NW MN THIS MORNING BEFORE DRYING UP. THERE
IS AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT FORMED IN ECNTRL MONTANTA
AND IS NOW NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK. RAP HAS SOME PRECIP SURVIVING
AND MOVING INTO PARTS OF ECNTRL OR SE ND 12Z-15Z PERIOD. SO WITH
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND SOUTH KEPT PRETTY BROAD POPS THRU
18Z FRI. TOP DOWN DID SHOW SOME RISK OF SLEET IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ND IF PRECIP REACHES THAT AREA. THIS AFTN PRETTY QUIET MOST
AREAS...THOUGH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FAR NORTH. BUT MAIN
850 MB WARM ADVECTION RETURNS BACK TO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THIS
AFTN AHEAD OF SHROT WAVE AND SFC LOW IN SOUTHERN B.C. THIS SYSTEM
TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAIN AREA OF
WARM ADV SNOWS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. THOUGH DID KEEP SOME POPS
IN NRN FCST AREA AS SRN EDGE MAY IMPACT AREAS ALONG THE BORDER.
QUITE WARM AIR BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY SO HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR LOWS
TONIGHT IN MANY AREAS AND THEN RISING TO SOME LOWER OR MID 30S IN
THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS WHILE NORTH WINDS RETURN
TO DVL BASIN AND FAR NRN VALLEY AS LOW MOVES EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
LOW WILL MOVE EAST THRU NRN MN WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THRU
THE FCST AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH FRONT BUT NOTHING MUCH. VERY
COLD AIRMASS MOVES IN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY STAYING BELOW ZERO
IN FAR NORTHERN ND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SUN NIGHT INTO CNTRL ND
WITH CLEAR SKY AND DID GO A BIT LOWER THAN SUPERBLEND BASED ON WED
NIGHTS LOWS. SUSPECT -20S AGAIN IN THE DVL BASIN.
MONDAY TO THURSDAY...OVERALL DRY AND COLD AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR WEAK AND BRIEF
RIDGING SCOURING OUT THE WELL BELOW NORMAL COLD AIRMASS. NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...RESULTING IN A
LESS COLD AIRMASS...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 18 BELOW RANGE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW APPEARS TO DEVELOP UP THURSDAY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
A MIXED BACK OF CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND LIKELY THRU TONIGHT WITH
MAJORITY MVFR CIGS 15-25 KFT WITH SOME SCATTERED MVFR CLOUD THEN
CIGS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KTS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BUT TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED IN MOST TAFS SOME MENTION OF
-SN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
349 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MODELS HAVE IN GENERAL HANDLED THINGS VERY POORLY LATELY. WHAT WAS
GOING TO BE A DECENT SNOW CLIPPERY SYSTEM LAST NIGHT WAS ANYTHING
BUT. BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINED WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF WHAT WAS
PROGGED 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS MAIN 1 TO 2 INCH BAND WAS FROM MINOT
AREA TO JAMESTOWN TO ALEXANDRIA MN INSTEAD OF BEING FARTHER NORTH.
AMOUNTS WEAKER AS WELL AS FOCUS OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT SEEMED
MORE CONFINED TO ERN SD/WCNTRL MN JUST OUTSIDE OF MAIN PRECIP
BAND. ANYHOW FIRST PRECIP BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EASTERN MN INTO
WISCONSIN. THERE IS A LARGER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW UPSTREAM IN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SW MANITOBA AND TRYING TO SPREAD INTO NCNTRL ND.
LATEST RAP/NAM SEEM OK IN SHOWING THIS LIGHT SNOW SPREADING INTO
NRN VALLEY AND PARTS OF NW MN THIS MORNING BEFORE DRYING UP. THERE
IS AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT FORMED IN ECNTRL MONTANTA
AND IS NOW NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK. RAP HAS SOME PRECIP SURVIVING
AND MOVING INTO PARTS OF ECNTRL OR SE ND 12Z-15Z PERIOD. SO WITH
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND SOUTH KEPT PRETTY BROAD POPS THRU
18Z FRI. TOP DOWN DID SHOW SOME RISK OF SLEET IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ND IF PRECIP REACHES THAT AREA. THIS AFTN PRETTY QUIET MOST
AREAS...THOUGH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FAR NORTH. BUT MAIN
850 MB WARM ADVECTION RETURNS BACK TO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THIS
AFTN AHEAD OF SHROT WAVE AND SFC LOW IN SOUTHERN B.C. THIS SYSTEM
TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAIN AREA OF
WARM ADV SNOWS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. THOUGH DID KEEP SOME POPS
IN NRN FCST AREA AS SRN EDGE MAY IMPACT AREAS ALONG THE BORDER.
QUITE WARM AIR BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY SO HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR LOWS
TONIGHT IN MANY AREAS AND THEN RISING TO SOME LOWER OR MID 30S IN
THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS WHILE NORTH WINDS RETURN
TO DVL BASIN AND FAR NRN VALLEY AS LOW MOVES EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
LOW WILL MOVE EAST THRU NRN MN WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THRU
THE FCST AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH FRONT BUT NOTHING MUCH. VERY
COLD AIRMASS MOVES IN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY STAYING BELOW ZERO
IN FAR NORTHERN ND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SUN NIGHT INTO CNTRL ND
WITH CLEAR SKY AND DID GO A BIT LOWER THAN SUPERBLEND BASED ON WED
NIGHTS LOWS. SUSPECT -20S AGAIN IN THE DVL BASIN.
MONDAY TO THURSDAY...OVERALL DRY AND COLD AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR WEAK AND BRIEF
RIDGING SCOURING OUT THE WELL BELOW NORMAL COLD AIRMASS. NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...RESULTING IN A
LESS COLD AIRMASS...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 18 BELOW RANGE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW APPEARS TO DEVELOP UP THURSDAY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014
IFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST ND AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
WEST CENTRAL MN. MVFR CONDITIONS EXTENDS NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE SURROUNDING IFR AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER FAR NORTHERN MN.
IFR AND MVFR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1019 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEED OF WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...AND MILD
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING CONTINUING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
LIGHT RAIN BEFORE COMING TO AN END. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SWRLY SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. NUMERICAL
MODELS SHOWING A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BETWEEN 800-850 MB TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WITH DRY AIR
ABOVE. AIRMASS TO MOISTEN UP WITH GOOD SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LLJ. IN WAA PATTERN WITH GOOD WINDS AND CLOUDS TEMPS LOOKS TO
HOLD NEARLY STEADY OR SLIGHT RISE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER BASED ON TRENDS. HRRR AND RAP
SOLNS WUD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPS TO OUR NE AND ILN/S FA
STAYS DRY OVERNIGHT. HAVE SLOWED DOWN ONSET BUT GIVEN LIFT AND LLJ
HAVE KEPT A LOW POP CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.
PREV DISCUSSION...
MID AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGESTED THE LONG-
ADVERTISED MOIST SWLY FETCH WAS ENTRENCHING ITSELF ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE DATA SHOWED A LARGE REGION
OF STRATUS /2-3KFT CEILINGS IN THE LOCAL AREA/ FROM SRN OHIO ALL
THE WAY TO LOUISIANA. 29.19Z RTMA DWPT ANALYSIS AND METARS SHOWED
TONGUE OF 50+ DWPTS FROM SERN MO TO THE GULF COAST SPREADING
NORTHEAST...AND 40+ DWPTS HAD ALREADY MADE IT INTO THE TRI-STATE
AREA WITH RAPID/STRONG MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING ON 30-40KT 925MB
JET PER WSR-88D VWP NETWORK. WHILE THERE HAD BEEN SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS ARK/MO EARLIER...MOISTURE THUS FAR HAS
LARGELY REMAINED TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE REPORTABLE
PRECIPITATION...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SHALLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
FOR TONIGHT...FIRST TEMPERATURES...SAW NO REASON TO SHOW ANY DROP
TO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HAVE TAKEN MID AFTERNOON READINGS AND
USED THOSE AS A SPRINGBOARD TO CONTINUED SLOW RISE OVERNIGHT. SOME
AREAS MAY BRIEFLY STEADY OUT OR SLOWLY FALL AT VARIOUS TIMES
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT BULK OF HI-RES DATA AND SUBJECTIVE
1000-900MB TEMP ADVECTION SUGGESTS TEMPS AT 12Z WILL BE 3-4F
HIGHER THAN THEY WILL BE AT 00Z THIS EVENING...SO LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET AND RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S.
29.09Z AND 29.15Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE /0.01"/ PRECIP
CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...WITH BULK OF
DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF /ECMWF...NAM...GFS...AND VARIOUS CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE/ CONTINUING WITH THE CLASSIC DRIZZLE QPF OUTPUT
LOOK /LARGE AREAS OF SPECKLED VERY LIGHT QPF/. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODEL SOURCES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH INFLUX OF MOISTURE MENTIONED IN
OBSERVATIONAL DATA ABOVE. BY 06Z...DEPTH OF SATURATED />85% RH/
LAYER WILL BE NEAR 1.5KM...WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR DRIZZLE
PRODUCTION ESPECIALLY IN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR SURFACE BOUNDARY/FOCUS MECHANISMS. FCST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW AN INCREASE TOWARD 60KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER SUGGESTING SOME TURBULENCE MAY ENHANCE VERTICAL
MOTIONS AND COLLISION/COALESCENCE PROCESSES. MODEL QPF SHOW
EXPANSION/DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 06Z IN ACCORDANCE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. 285-295K
LAYERED ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND MIXING RATIOS ALL COINCIDE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET SO PUSHED MEASURABLE RAIN
CHANCES /VIA DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN/ TOWARD LATER IN THE
NIGHT. IN A RELATIVE SENSE...MOST OF THE NWP FOCUS ON OHIO FOR THE
BEST CHANCES OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN PEAKING TOWARD THE END OF
THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THREAT FOR DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES INTO AND THROUGH
SUNDAY. DEPTH OF SATURATED LAYER REMAINS NEAR 1.5 KM LENDING SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO HOW WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE OR AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE /WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS CLOSER TO 2KM GIVEN ABSENCE OF
SHORTWAVE OR DEEPER VERTICAL MOTION/. THINK THE ONGOING 60%
CHANCES WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING STILL HOLD AS A GOOD START...GIVEN
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE DEPTH ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT THE
ALMOST UNANIMOUS 0.05-0.10" QPF ON MODELS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. VERIFIED AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE FAR LESS THAN WHAT
MODELS ARE SHOWING...ANYWHERE FROM A HUNDREDTH OR TWO TO FIVE
HUNDREDTHS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WAVES OF VERY WEAK LOWER LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION TIED TO ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND SUBTLE INCREASES/DECREASES IN DEPTH OF SATURATED LAYER
SUGGEST DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN AREAS WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS AT
ANY ONE LOCATION. GIVEN SIGNAL HASN/T CHANGED OVER THE PAST 48
HOURS...WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY WITH ONGOING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR
A VERY LIGHT AMOUNT EVENT THAT WILL LIKELY MEASURE AT SOME POINT
BUT IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS WILL BE A VERY LIGHT RAIN EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WON/T WARM TOO MUCH FROM EARLY MORNING WARMTH GIVEN
THE THICK LOW CLOUDS AND DAMP CONDITIONS...BUT MID/UPPER 50S AND
PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S LOOKS REASONABLE.
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CUT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
IS WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN BECOMES MORE CERTAIN AS THE
MOISTURE/FORCING PEAK IN A RELATIVE SENSE NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL FGEN CIRCULATION CLEARLY SHOWN MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. DEPTH OF SATURATED LAYER EASILY SURPASSES 2KM
WHICH SHOULD BE PLENTY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH MAGNITUDE OR QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
THREATEN ANY CHANGE TO SNOW. SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR
VERY BRIEF MIX IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SLOW A BIT BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY CHANGE IN PHASE OF PRECIP.
MONDAY WILL BE A MUCH COLDER DAY AS BRIEF CP INTRUSION MOVES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE STEADY OR SHOW ONLY SLOW RISES
THROUGH THE DAY OWING TO DECENT NNELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC
LIFT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER FORCING MAY
REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOWER CHANCE
AT THIS POINT...PRIMARILY ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA.
IN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT SOME NON
DIURNAL TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER40S/LOWER 50S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL HELP PUSH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S
SOUTH.
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER SURGE
OF MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALOFT...LEADING TO GOOD CHANCE OF PCPN TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE
THAT SOME OF THE PCPN COULD START OFF AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER IN
THE WAA PATTERN...WOULD EXPECT A TRANSITION TO MORE RAIN LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH...INCREASING TO MID 40S NORTH
TO LOWER 50S SOUTH ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRYING AIRMASS
WILL THEN TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD REACH
THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN. IN FACT...MODELS INDICATE A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. WHAT
REMAINS IN QUESTION FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PLACING A LARGE AREA OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOUGH TO
DIFFERENTIATE WHETHER THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS DRIZZLE OR SOME LIGHT
RAIN. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISMS EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO
JUST INCLUDE A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE IN THE TAFS BEGINNING AFTER 06Z.
THERE COULD VERY WELL BE SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR PERHAPS
EVEN SOME DRY PERIODS...BUT AS OF NOW TIMING REMAINS TOUGH TO PIN
DOWN. MVFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS EXPECTED. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN MVFR FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH SOME IFR CIGS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LATER PART OF THE KCVG TAF WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN AT THE TERMINALS WILL COME SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/AR
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...KURZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
915 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST STAYING NORTH OF THE
LAKE BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD
KEEP SKIES CLOUDY. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE
LATER TONIGHT. NOTHING ON RADAR YET BUT WITH MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOME LIFT EVENTUALLY THINK SOME
PRECIP SHOULD START TO OCCUR. NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL BE MEASURABLE
VERSUS JUST SPRINKLES SO WILL BACK DOWN POPS TO KEEP ALL AREAS IN
CHANCE CATEGORY...EXCPET NW WHERE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THRU DAYBREAK AS
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR SITUATION ON SUNDAY AS PROFILES SUGGESTING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME. TRIED TO SUGGEST WITH LOWER
MIDDAY POPS THAT THERE MIGHT BE A LULL...VS SUGGESTING AN ALL OUT
RAINY DAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT NEARS. MILD SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT NEARING
TOLEDO UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP LOOKS TO EXIT BEFORE
IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION.
DRYING MONDAY ALONG WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. NO SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT...BUT WILL KEEP THE LAKE CLOUDS WITH THE H8-LAKE TEMP
DIFFERENCE OF 13C OR SO AND MAYBE A FLURRY/20 POP FOR A SNOW
SHOWER IN THE SNOWBELT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND HAVE
LITTLE CHANCE AT MUCH OF TEMPERATURE RISE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY/TN VALLEY AND WILL BRING CLOUD COVER BACK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIP MIGHT BE A POSSIBILITY BUT HELD THAT OFF
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. WILL DO NO BETTER THAN THE 30S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AGAIN THERE WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE TO
LIFT SO ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE AT THIS POINT...MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. TIMING OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IN THE MODELS
LEADS US TO UNCERTAINTY WITH ITS TIMING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE BUT ALL OF
THEM TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE EAST TO NE MOVEMENT OF THE JET
ENERGY. WE DID CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LLWS A CONCERN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN A WITH
2KFT WINDS 23050KT ON AVERAGE. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH MVFR TO
NEAR IFR BY MORNING. HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS LIGHT RAIN MAINLY FROM
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THINKING
WHATEVER DEVELOPS WILL BE LIGHT AND WEST WITH EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL BE LOW MVFR...DROPPING TO IFR TIME TO
TIME IN DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN LIGHT SHOWERS AND
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A 40 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET MOVING OVER THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE WITH A CONTINUED 15 TO
20+ KNOT WIND ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD
ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MENTOR TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE
SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST IT APPEARS THAT WAVES WILL BUILD BACK TO AT LEAST 4
FEET. AT THIS POINT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE PULLED
BACK WESTWARD TOWARD VERMILION. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DECREASE
ENOUGH BY MONDAY EVENING TO ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO END.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
630 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST STAYING NORTH OF THE
LAKE BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ANY
CLEAR PATCHES WILL FILL IN AND OVERALL THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER INTO
STATUS. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE LATER
TONIGHT. NO RETURNS YET UPSTREAM BUT WITH MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOME LIFT...PROFILES STILL
SUGGESTING THE PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR. TO BEST COLLABORATE...WILL BRING
POPS UP TO MARGINALLY LIKELY FOR SE HALF BY END OF THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY THIS EVENING ONLY DROPPING A
FEW AT MOST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR SITUATION ON SUNDAY AS PROFILES SUGGESTING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME. TRIED TO SUGGEST WITH LOWER
MIDDAY POPS THAT THERE MIGHT BE A LULL...VS SUGGESTING AN ALL OUT
RAINY DAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT NEARS. MILD SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT NEARING
TOLEDO UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP LOOKS TO EXIT BEFORE
IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION.
DRYING MONDAY ALONG WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. NO SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT...BUT WILL KEEP THE LAKE CLOUDS WITH THE H8-LAKE TEMP
DIFFERENCE OF 13C OR SO AND MAYBE A FLURRY/20 POP FOR A SNOW
SHOWER IN THE SNOWBELT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND HAVE
LITTLE CHANCE AT MUCH OF TEMPERATURE RISE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY/TN VALLEY AND WILL BRING CLOUD COVER BACK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIP MIGHT BE A POSSIBILITY BUT HELD THAT OFF
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. WILL DO NO BETTER THAN THE 30S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AGAIN THERE WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE TO
LIFT SO ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE AT THIS POINT...MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. TIMING OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IN THE MODELS
LEADS US TO UNCERTAINTY WITH ITS TIMING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE BUT ALL OF
THEM TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE EAST TO NE MOVEMENT OF THE JET
ENERGY. WE DID CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LLWS A CONCERN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN A WITH
2KFT WINDS 23050KT ON AVERAGE. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH MVFR TO
NEAR IFR BY MORNING. HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS LIGHT RAIN MAINLY FROM
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THINKING
WHATEVER DEVELOPS WILL BE LIGHT AND WEST WITH EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL BE LOW MVFR...DROPPING TO IFR TIME TO
TIME IN DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN LIGHT SHOWERS AND
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A 40 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET MOVING OVER THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE WITH A CONTINUED 15 TO
20+ KNOT WIND ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD
ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MENTOR TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE
SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST IT APPEARS THAT WAVES WILL BUILD BACK TO AT LEAST 4
FEET. AT THIS POINT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE PULLED
BACK WESTWARD TOWARD VERMILION. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DECREASE
ENOUGH BY MONDAY EVENING TO ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO END.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
955 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TODAY.
WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. FAST WESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEK WILL
BRING A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...BUT STILL A FEW ORGANIZED AREAS OVER WESTERN CWA MOVING SE
AND DISSIPATING. THE RISING HEIGHTS/RIDGING DURING THE DAY WILL
HELP TO DECREASE THE SNOW SHOWERS TO FLURRIES OR LESS LATE THIS
MORNING. THE COLDEST LLVL AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COLD...NOT RISING OUT OF THE M20S NORTH AND
M30S SOUTH. WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
CHILLIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES EAST AND GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD AND A
SHORT WAVE TRAVELING ALONG IT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. MEAGER MOISTURE MIGHT MAKE MEASURABLE SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION. THE FEATURE DRIVING THE SNOW
WILL BE VERY FAST-MOVING AND THE TIMING AND HEIGHTS OVERHEAD AT
THE TIME OF PASSAGE WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE WHERE THE SNOW
FALLS. WILL BUMP POPS INTO LIKELIES FOR THE NRN HALF AND JUST A
LITTLE MORE WITH CHCS ELSEWHERE TO COVER THE UNCERTAINTIES. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ALMOST NIL ALONG THE MD BORDER...BUT COULD BE 2
INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP JUST 5-10F
WITH CLOUDS THICKENING UP AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THE TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY...AND THE LEFTOVER
LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE
EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
SATURDAY...AND WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS...HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AND MINORLY MELTING SNOW
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WHICH COULD BEAR
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN. LIQUID PRECIP DEVELOPS OVER WRN AND NRN PA
LATE SAT AND ALMOST CERTAINLY ON SAT NIGHT. THE SFC TEMPS SAT
NIGHT COULD LEAD TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NRN TIER. WILL JUST ADD
IN A MENTION OF IT WITH THIS PKG BUT CALL IT RAIN ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S BY SUNDAY.
MODELS SEEM TO BE BACK IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON APPROACH OF A FRONT
FOR MONDAY...THOUGH GFS/GEFS CONTINUE TO BE 6 TO MAYBE 12 HRS
FASTER WITH FROPA THAN THE ECMWF.
POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS BACK IN FOR TUESDAY AS
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS S CANADA. MDLS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON LARGE FEATURES FOR NEXT WEEK. GFS DOES MAKE A MORE-
WET FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ALL MDLS SEEM TO
BE LATCHING ONTO THE FROPA NEXT FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE ENHANCED...OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE W MTNS. CAN/T RULE
OUT A BRIEF DIP TO IFR CONDS AT EITHER KBFD OR JST THIS MORNING.
HOWVEVER...RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT AT 11Z POINT TOWARD
IMPROVING CONDS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING -SHSN OVR THE W MTNS TO
DISSIPATE BY LATE AM...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS LIKELY BY THIS
AFTN. A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE REGION COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SAT AM OVER
NORTHERN PA.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...AM LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY NORTH. LOW CIGS AT
KBFD POSS SAT NIGHT.
SUN...AM LOW CIGS/DZ POSS KBFD.
MON...LOW CIGS/SHRA POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
642 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TODAY.
WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. FAST WESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEK WILL
BRING A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. BRIEFLY INTENSE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING ANOTHER INCH OR SO TO SOMERSET COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER
AND MORE-TRANSIENT. THESE SHOULD NOT MAKE ANY MORE THAN A DUSTING
TO HALF INCH OF SNOW THIS MORNING. THE RISING HEIGHTS/RIDGING
DURING THE DAY WILL HELP TO DECREASE THE SNOW SHOWERS TO FLURRIES
OR LESS LATE THIS MORNING. THE COLDEST LLVL AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON...SO TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COLD...NOT RISING OUT
OF THE M20S NORTH AND M30S SOUTH. WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN CHILLIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES EAST AND GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD AND A
SHORT WAVE TRAVELING ALONG IT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. MEAGER MOISTURE MIGHT MAKE MEASURABLE SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION. THE FEATURE DRIVING THE SNOW
WILL BE VERY FAST-MOVING AND THE TIMING AND HEIGHTS OVERHEAD AT
THE TIME OF PASSAGE WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE WHERE THE SNOW
FALLS. WILL BUMP POPS INTO LIKELIES FOR THE NRN HALF AND JUST A
LITTLE MORE WITH CHCS ELSEWHERE TO COVER THE UNCERTAINTIES. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ALMOST NIL ALONG THE MD BORDER...BUT COULD BE 2
INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP JUST 5-10F
WITH CLOUDS THICKENING UP AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THE TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY...AND THE LEFTOVER
LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE
EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
SATURDAY...AND WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS...HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AND MINORLY MELTING SNOW
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WHICH COULD BEAR
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN. LIQUID PRECIP DEVELOPS OVER WRN AND NRN PA
LATE SAT AND ALMOST CERTAINLY ON SAT NIGHT. THE SFC TEMPS SAT
NIGHT COULD LEAD TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NRN TIER. WILL JUST ADD
IN A MENTION OF IT WITH THIS PKG BUT CALL IT RAIN ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S BY SUNDAY.
MODELS SEEM TO BE BACK IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON APPROACH OF A FRONT
FOR MONDAY...THOUGH GFS/GEFS CONTINUE TO BE 6 TO MAYBE 12 HRS
FASTER WITH FROPA THAN THE ECMWF.
POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS BACK IN FOR TUESDAY AS
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS S CANADA. MDLS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON LARGE FEATURES FOR NEXT WEEK. GFS DOES MAKE A MORE-
WET FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ALL MDLS SEEM TO
BE LATCHING ONTO THE FROPA NEXT FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE ENHANCED...OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE W MTNS. CAN/T RULE
OUT A BRIEF DIP TO IFR CONDS AT EITHER KBFD OR JST THIS MORNING.
HOWVEVER...RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT AT 11Z POINT TOWARD
IMPROVING CONDS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING -SHSN OVR THE W MTNS TO
DISSIPATE BY LATE AM...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS LIKELY BY THIS
AFTN. A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE REGION COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SAT AM OVER
NORTHERN PA.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...AM LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY NORTH. LOW CIGS AT
KBFD POSS SAT NIGHT.
SUN...AM LOW CIGS/DZ POSS KBFD.
MON...LOW CIGS/SHRA POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
634 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TODAY.
WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. FAST WESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH UPSTATE NY...BUT HEIGHTS START TO
RISE VERY SOON. BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING A NEW 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE LAUREL MOUNTAINS.
TRANSIENT SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP A WIDESPREAD 3 INCHES FROM
OCCURRING. RIDGING WILL HELP TO DECREASE THE SNOW SHOWERS ROLLING
THROUGH WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PA TO FLURRIES OR LESS BY LATE
THIS MORNING. COLDEST LLVL AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON...SO TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COLD...NOT RISING OUT OF THE
M20S NORTH AND M30S SOUTH. WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN CHILLIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES EAST AND GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD AND A
SHORT WAVE TRAVELING ALONG IT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. MEAGER MOISTURE MIGHT MAKE MEASURABLE SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION. THE FEATURE DRIVING THE SNOW
WILL BE VERY FAST-MOVING AND THE TIMING AND HEIGHTS OVERHEAD AT
THE TIME OF PASSAGE WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE WHERE THE SNOW
FALLS. WILL BUMP POPS INTO LIKELIES FOR THE NRN HALF AND JUST A
LITTLE MORE WITH CHCS ELSEWHERE TO COVER THE UNCERTAINTIES. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ALMOST NIL ALONG THE MD BORDER...BUT COULD BE 2
INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP JUST 5-10F
WITH CLOUDS THICKENING UP AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THE TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY...AND THE LEFTOVER
LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE
EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
SATURDAY...AND WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS...HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AND MINORLY MELTING SNOW
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WHICH COULD BEAR
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN. LIQUID PRECIP DEVELOPS OVER WRN AND NRN PA
LATE SAT AND ALMOST CERTAINLY ON SAT NIGHT. THE SFC TEMPS SAT
NIGHT COULD LEAD TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NRN TIER. WILL JUST ADD
IN A MENTION OF IT WITH THIS PKG BUT CALL IT RAIN ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S BY SUNDAY.
MODELS SEEM TO BE BACK IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON APPROACH OF A FRONT
FOR MONDAY...THOUGH GFS/GEFS CONTINUE TO BE 6 TO MAYBE 12 HRS
FASTER WITH FROPA THAN THE ECMWF.
POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS BACK IN FOR TUESDAY AS
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS S CANADA. MDLS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON LARGE FEATURES FOR NEXT WEEK. GFS DOES MAKE A MORE-
WET FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ALL MDLS SEEM TO
BE LATCHING ONTO THE FROPA NEXT FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE ENHANCED...OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE W MTNS. CAN/T RULE
OUT A BRIEF DIP TO IFR CONDS AT EITHER KBFD OR JST THIS MORNING.
HOWVEVER...RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT AT 11Z POINT TOWARD
IMPROVING CONDS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING -SHSN OVR THE W MTNS TO
DISSIPATE BY LATE AM...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS LIKELY BY THIS
AFTN. A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE REGION COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SAT AM OVER
NORTHERN PA.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...AM LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY NORTH. LOW CIGS AT
KBFD POSS SAT NIGHT.
SUN...AM LOW CIGS/DZ POSS KBFD.
MON...LOW CIGS/SHRA POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
254 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL OR NOT. THE NAM AND RAP
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
NORTHWEST IA...SOUTHWEST MN...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SD AND EAST CENTRAL
SD. THEY BEGIN THE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
IA...THEN EXPAND IT WEST AND NORTHWARD. THE NAM AND RAP ARE VERY
MOIST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...IN FACT
SHOWING A LOT OF 1 TO 2 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSION SPREADS EVEN AT
THIS TIME WHICH IS NOT VERIFYING. THE GFS...ECMWF AND ARW ARE MUCH
MORE SUBDUED...SHOWING WIDER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND THUS LESS
FOG. FOR NOW...KEPT AREAS OF FOG GOING FROM THE BROOKINGS AREA
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE
SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF IN THOSE
AREAS...WITH PATCHY FOG FOR ADJACENT AREAS TO THE WEST...NOT BUYING
THE NAM OR RAP OUTPUT. LATE TONIGHT A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT BEGINS
TO NUDGE EASTWARD HELPING TO ACTUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS
AREA. THIS MAY ALSO HELP IN REDUCING FOG POTENTIAL...AT LEAST WEST
OF I 29. FOR TEMPERATURES...LOADED UP THE CHILLY GEM BIAS CORRECTED
VALUES FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH THE IA GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A
LOT OF ECMWF ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN FRONT...
WHICH WILL MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE LOOKING AT SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES NORTH OF
I 90 DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH READINGS STILL FAIRLY MILD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE...PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK AS WE TRANSITION TO A MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF I-90
TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SO HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE FOR THAT TIME.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG COLD AIR
IN WITH THE COLDEST AIR OVER US ON SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS ON SUN
NIGHT TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...SEEING TEMPS AROUND -3 TO -4. VERY COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH
5-10 MPH WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10 TO -20 RIGHT
AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. NOT MUCH OF A REBOUND IN TEMPS EXPECED
ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
FOR TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF AS ZONAL
FLOW DOMINATES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCH TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS BY THURS/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
VFR WILL CERTAINLY PREVAIL TODAY. THERE IS MORE OF A QUESTION MARK
TONIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME INDICATIONS LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES THAT LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
FIRST SETUP OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST IA AFTER SUNSET...THEN WORK
NORTH AND NORTHWEST POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE KFSD TAF SITE.
CURRENTLY EXTREME NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHWEST MN DO EXHIBIT SMALL
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...SO THIS SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE.
THERE IS A QUESTION HOWEVER...BECAUSE IT IS PRIMARILY THE NAM AND
RAP WHICH ARE SHOWING THIS...WHILE MANY OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE
NOT. SO ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THAT WE STILL DO NOT WANT TO GO
ALL IN FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS FOR KFSD. IT APPEARS THAT KSUX
WILL BE TOO FAR WEST IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO PAN OUT...AND THAT
KHON MAY BE MORE IMPACTED BY JUST THE USUAL MVFR LATE NIGHT LIGHT
FOG WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. KEPT KSUX VFR...AND KFSD MVFR FOR NOW
FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
521 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
AT 3 PM...WARM AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MINNESOTA TO VALENTINE NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
50S AND 60S IN WESTERN IOWA. CLOSER TO HOME...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 30S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND IN THE 40S AND 50S SOUTH OF
THIS INTERSTATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE 925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ANOTHER 2 TO 4C INTO THE 7 TO
14C RANGE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 200 PERCENT TOO HIGH WITH
IT SNOW DEPTH...AND THIS IS CAUSING HAVOC WITH THEIR TEMPERATURES.
OTHER MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES TOO DUE TO THE SNOW PACK. MIXING
DOWN THE AIR MASS FROM 925 MB INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES COULD
POTENTIALLY WARM INTO THE MID50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S NEAR
INTERSTATE 90 AND 94. THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON ON HOW FAST THE
SNOW MELTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...PLAN ON PLAYING IT
CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TEMPERATURES.
FOR TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BY MIDNIGHT...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO MASON CITY IOWA...AND FROM
GREEN BAY TO KANSAS CITY BY 6 AM. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW /GENERALLY LESS THAN 50 TO 75 MB
UNDER 875 MB/ ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. THE NAM
SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OMEGA CO-LOCATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE FOR SOME SNOW FLURRIES. MEANWHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SAY THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS BEING A
NEW DEVELOPMENT AND ONLY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT MOST...SO DECIDED
TO JUST KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. AS FAR AS HOW COLD IT WILL BE BY
MORNING...THE GEM CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDEST WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND FROM 10
TO 20 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS LOW
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 20S. WITH SUCH DISCREPANCIES...JUST
STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM 15 TO 30.
ON SUNDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 20 ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND 5 TO 15 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL
VALUES FROM 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE AIR
MASS PARCHED...NOT EXPECTING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THIS FRONT.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES FROM -5 TO 10 AND NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE -20
TO -25 DEGREE RANGE. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS /-20 TO -25F/ WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
AREAS.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON HOW FAST THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. AS
A RESULT...THERE ARE QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOCATED ON THIS NIGHT. WITH SUCH
DIFFERENCES...STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS HAS LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM -5 T0 -10F. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CAUSE WIND
WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL OF 15 TO 25 BELOW. THIS MAY BE ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT AS COLD AS
THE PREVIOUS ONES. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND OMEGA BELOW 850 MB FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW
NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29. DUE TO THIS ADDED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE FORECAST.
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON
THE INTERACTION OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS LOOKS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING THE
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE THE GEM AND
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE PREVIOUS GFS WITH MORE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THESE 2 WAVES AND IT GENERATES LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE COLD FRONT WAS MAKING GOOD EASTWARD PROGRESS AND EXTENDED
FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT
APPEARS THE 29.21Z RAP HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND BRINGS IT THROUGH KRST AROUND 02Z AND KLSE AROUND 04Z
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. A MVFR CLOUD DECK LAGS BEHIND
THE FRONT BY ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AND TIMING THE MOVEMENT OF THESE
OFF SATELLITE...THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO KRST BETWEEN 05Z AND 06Z AND
A COUPLE HOURS LATER AT KLSE. WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT...GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FORM WHICH WILL ALLOW
SOME GUSTS TO DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A BACK EDGE TO
THE MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE RAP WOULD
SUGGEST THIS BACK EDGE WOULD ARRIVE EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE 29.18Z NAM WOULD HOLD THE CLOUDS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE BIAS OF THE NAM TO BE TOO
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL GO WITH SOME
CLEARING EARLIER THAN IT SUGGESTS...BUT NOT AS EARLY AS THE RAP.
FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE THE MVFR CEILING DISSIPATING LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
450 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 450 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
SCATTERED FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 WITH SOME LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES STARTING TO
REPORT SOME SLIC ROADS AND ACCIDENTS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST
HRRR...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING
OFF TO THE EAST AND OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WITH
SOME ICING STARTING TO OCCUR AND TO RAISE THE AWARENESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
AT 3 PM...A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS
WAS STARTING TO MOVE EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS BAND
HAS PRODUCED AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND OCCASIONALLY SOME ICE
PELLETS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. PERIODIC CHECKS WITH LAW
ENFORCEMENT AND SPOTTERS HAVE NOT INDICATED TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT
FROM IT. IT JUST STARTED HERE AT THE OFFICE AND IT IS FREEZING ON
THE VEHICLES AND SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED SIDEWALKS. HAVE TO ISSUE
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING ON UNTREATED
SURFACES.
FOR THIS EVENING...THE 28.18Z RAP AND NAM SHOW THAT THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING
IN WITH THIS WINTRY MIX. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS SUGGEST UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF. THIS SEEMS TO BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR BETWEEN 700 TO 850 MB...SO HAVE LIQUID
AMOUNTS OF 0.01 TO 0.03 INCHES.
FOR OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN CLARK AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES...AND THEN MOVE OUT BY 3 AM. THERE MAY BE SOME
VERY LIGHT ICING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 20S INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S BY MORNING. AS THIS
WARM AIR MOVES OVER THE SNOW PACK...THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF
FOG.
ON SATURDAY...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
SNOW COVER. THE NAM SNOW COVER IS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH. IT HAS
SNOW DEPTHS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. WE ARE ACTUALLY MORE IN THE TRACE TO
4 INCHES...SO SOME OF THE WARMING IN THE MODELS IS GOING TO SNOW
MELT INSTEAD OF WARMING THE AIR MASS NEAR THE GROUND. THE WARMEST
925 AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO 0 TO 8C INTO
THESE AREAS...SO A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE TEMPERATURES COULD WARM
A BIT WARMER THAN THE LOW TO MID 40S THAT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE FIRST OF 2 ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALL FROM 6 TO 10C INTO -7 TO -15C. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG WINDS ADVECTING TO THE
SURFACE DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
HOWEVER SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WINDS WILL STAY
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE RANGE.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE -15C TO -19C FOR
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES. LIGHTER WINDS WILL KEEP
WIND CHILLS IN THE 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE RANGE.
FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH WHETHER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW SIMILAR WITH
THE TRACK THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THEY ARE 12 HOUR APART. PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NAM. THERE IS AN MVFR
DECK OF CLOUDS TO THE NORTH-WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT.
FARTHER SOUTH...SOME THIN MID CLOUDS WERE ALL THAT WAS EVIDENT. SOME
SUGGESTION THAT THE LOW CIGS WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS KRST/KLSE THIS
EVENING...WITH PERHAPS SOME AID FROM POOLING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MELTING SNOW PACK. THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME
BR...MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...AND WILL ADJUST AS/IF
NEEDED. ASSUMING LOW CLOUDS DO MOVE IN...PROBABLY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF SATURDAY.
SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH - IF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE REALIZED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON - THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR SOME -FZDZ. CURRENT FORECAST
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE PROBABLY TOO SHALLOW IN SATURATION DEPTH...BUT
IF ITS DEEPER...DRIZZLE PROCESS COULD GET GOING THANKS TO SOME WEAK
LIFT THROUGH THE COLUMN. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ029-
032>034-041>044.
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-
086>088.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
406 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN A REGION OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS... A WEAK 500MB
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET STREAK. THAT AREA IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY OVER LA
CROSSE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WI.
THE MIXED PRECIP TYPE IS DUE TO THE THERMAL PROFILE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAX
TEMP IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 800-850MB OF +4C AT MSN AT 00Z. THIS
IS ALSO A DRY LAYER WITH THE WAA ADVECTING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE
PLAINS. 500MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED UPWARD MOTION WITHIN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE... LOCATED AT 500-600MB LEVEL. IT IS
TAKING TIME TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP AT
THE GROUND. CEILINGS ARE QUITE HIGH UPSTREAM. THIS FORCING WILL ONLY
BE OVER SOUTHERN WI FOR A SHORT TIME PERIOD THIS EVENING...SO THAT
WILL LIMIT OUR AMOUNTS OF ANY ICE ACCUMULATION.
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SUNNY AREAS AND THIS AREA
IS TURNING INTO STRATUS AS IT GETS DARK AND IS ACTUALLY EXPANDING A
LITTLE IN AREAL COVERAGE. THE LOWER CEILINGS WITHIN THIS BAROCLINIC
ZONE/ DIURNAL CU ZONE ARE PAVING THE WAY FOR THIS FROZEN PRECIP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THE DELLS AREA WILL SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT MADISON WILL BE IMPACTED AS
WELL.
EVEN VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON TRAVEL. WE
WILL HANDLE THIS SITUATION WITH NOWCASTS AND SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AS IT EVOLVES.
AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS WE WILL BEGIN WARMING AT THE SURFACE AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS TAKES HOLD. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S BY EARLY MORNING AND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
BEGS THE QUESTION ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE FOG WILL BECOME
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTING OVER OUR SNOW PACK AND ALSO WITH SOME
MELTING SNOW.
DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP OUR SNOW FROM RAPIDLY MELTING AND
HELP TO KEEP THE DENSE FOG AWAY. SOME MODELS... ESPECIALLY THE
NAM... ARE DEVELOPING DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. THE NAM HAS BEEN
OVERDOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATELY DUE TO ITS ASSUMPTION OF
DEEPER SNOW COVER THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY THERE. IT IS ALSO ASSUMING
THAT WE WILL BE MELTING A LOT OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. AFTER COORDINATION
WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES... WE HAVE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A PAIR OF WEAK SHORT WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH IN FAST MOVING ZONAL FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDING 140 KT 250 MB JET STREAK. SOME WEAK
VORTICITY ADVECTION/300-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN THE EAST
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SUNDAY...WITH SECONDARY 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE
NOSING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH PRODUCING SOME
ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA. SOME WEAK SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG SURFACE TROUGH...BUT THIS LESSENS WITH TIME AS SURFACE LOW
LIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER DRY PLAINS AIR ADVECTING IN ON WSW WINDS KEEPING COLUMN DRY
ABOVE 900 MB ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS AT OR ABOVE 100 MB INTO SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE BUT MOIST LAYER TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE
PCPN. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT LOW LEVEL SATURATION NOT
EXTENSIVE ENOUGH...AND COLLABORATION LEADS TO NOT MENTIONING AT THIS
TIME.
TEMPS ONLY COOL ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS EARLY IN THE
EVENING THEN REMAIN STEADY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...COOLING AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS BEHIND TROUGH THAT EXITS THE SE CORNER OF STATE
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
TEMPS REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WITH MIDDAY HIGHS SUNDAY...THEN FALL AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION DROPS 925 MB TEMPS ON NW WINDS WITH SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.
WILL SEE SINGLE DIGIT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY. MONDAY HIGHS WELL
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS...WITH AROUND 20 ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND
NEAR THE IL BORDER. WIND CHILL VALUES ONLY GET TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.
CORE OF THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
AND NEAR-CALM CONDITIONS DIPPING LOWS TO NEAR ZERO IN THE NW
CWA...AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP
LOCALES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE BETWEEN 10F AND 15F ABOVE.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SOME BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE MODELS...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES REMAIN. ECMWF AND GEM STILL DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH
DEEPER THAN GFS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT ALL KEEP SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED PCPN WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN HOLD OFF DEVELOPING PRECIP ALONG TRAILING SURFACE
TROUGH UNTIL GULF MOISTURE WICKS UP BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH...WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE STATE. GFS IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF IN KEEPING A
WEAKER SRN STREAM WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THOUGH IT IS FASTER AND FOCUSING PCPN ALL SOUTH
OF STATE. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR NOW AND AWAIT MORE CONSISTENT
SIGNAL FROM MODELS. TEMPERATURES WORK BACK TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. THE LOW
CEILINGS OVER MSN ARE GRADUALLY EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE LOW CIGS WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR THIS LIGHT MIXY
PRECIP THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL PULL IN WARMER
AND SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST AIR OVER SNOWPACK. PROBABILITIES OF IFR
CEILINGS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY INTO MSN. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE
REALLY LOW IFR CIGS THAT THE NAM AND HRRR SUGGEST WILL PAN OUT.
EXPECTING AREAS OF LIGHT FOG... PROBABLY NOT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AND WAVES ARE REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. THUS... ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY WILL ALSO APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
BRISK SOUTH WINDS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO GENERATE
RATHER HIGH WAVES
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
355 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
AT 3 PM...A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS
WAS STARTING TO MOVE EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS BAND
HAS PRODUCED AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND OCCASIONALLY SOME ICE
PELLETS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. PERIODIC CHECKS WITH LAW
ENFORCEMENT AND SPOTTERS HAVE NOT INDICATED TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT
FROM IT. IT JUST STARTED HERE AT THE OFFICE AND IT IS FREEZING ON
THE VEHICLES AND SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED SIDEWALKS. HAVE TO ISSUE
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING ON UNTREATED
SURFACES.
FOR THIS EVENING...THE 28.18Z RAP AND NAM SHOW THAT THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING
IN WITH THIS WINTRY MIX. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS SUGGEST UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF. THIS SEEMS TO BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR BETWEEN 700 TO 850 MB...SO HAVE LIQUID
AMOUNTS OF 0.01 TO 0.03 INCHES.
FOR OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN CLARK AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES...AND THEN MOVE OUT BY 3 AM. THERE MAY BE SOME
VERY LIGHT ICING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 20S INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S BY MORNING. AS THIS
WARM AIR MOVES OVER THE SNOW PACK...THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF
FOG.
ON SATURDAY...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
SNOW COVER. THE NAM SNOW COVER IS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH. IT HAS
SNOW DEPTHS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. WE ARE ACTUALLY MORE IN THE TRACE TO
4 INCHES...SO SOME OF THE WARMING IN THE MODELS IS GOING TO SNOW
MELT INSTEAD OF WARMING THE AIR MASS NEAR THE GROUND. THE WARMEST
925 AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO 0 TO 8C INTO
THESE AREAS...SO A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE TEMPERATURES COULD WARM
A BIT WARMER THAN THE LOW TO MID 40S THAT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE FIRST OF 2 ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALL FROM 6 TO 10C INTO -7 TO -15C. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG WINDS ADVECTING TO THE
SURFACE DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
HOWEVER SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WINDS WILL STAY
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE RANGE.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE -15C TO -19C FOR
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES. LIGHTER WINDS WILL KEEP
WIND CHILLS IN THE 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE RANGE.
FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH WHETHER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW SIMILAR WITH
THE TRACK THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THEY ARE 12 HOUR APART. PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NAM. THERE IS AN MVFR
DECK OF CLOUDS TO THE NORTH-WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT.
FARTHER SOUTH...SOME THIN MID CLOUDS WERE ALL THAT WAS EVIDENT. SOME
SUGGESTION THAT THE LOW CIGS WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS KRST/KLSE THIS
EVENING...WITH PERHAPS SOME AID FROM POOLING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MELTING SNOW PACK. THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME
BR...MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...AND WILL ADJUST AS/IF
NEEDED. ASSUMING LOW CLOUDS DO MOVE IN...PROBABLY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF SATURDAY.
SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH - IF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE REALIZED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON - THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR SOME -FZDZ. CURRENT FORECAST
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE PROBABLY TOO SHALLOW IN SATURATION DEPTH...BUT
IF ITS DEEPER...DRIZZLE PROCESS COULD GET GOING THANKS TO SOME WEAK
LIFT THROUGH THE COLUMN. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1222 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.UPDATE...
THE MORNING SNOW MOVED OUT OF SOUTHERN WI AND THERE IS SUNSHINE WEST
OF MADISON. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD. THE 12Z MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF OVER ALMOST ALL OF SOUTHERN WI. THIS IS DUE TO 850-
700MB FRONTOGENESIS MOVING THROUGH. THE UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH DRY
AIR WILL HINDER PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP
WOULD HIT THE GROUND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
TEMP AROUND 800-850MB OF +4C AT MSN. THIS IS ALSO A DRY LAYER WITH
THE WAA ADVECTING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE PLAINS. 500MB SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK
WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED UPWARD MOTION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE... LOCATED AT 500-600MB LEVEL. THIS LAYER WILL ALSO BE
SATURATED. IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THIS SIGNAL EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
BE A DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IF THERE IS ENOUGH FORCING
ALOFT... THEN THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL BE ABLE TO SATURATE
FROM THE TOP DOWN AND PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP AT THE GROUND... GIVEN
ENOUGH TIME. THE ONLY THING IS THAT IT WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED EVENT
OVER SOUTHERN WI. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL DETERMINE WHAT
PRECIP TYPE IT WILL BE... BUT LIKELY A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN THAT CHANGES TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING... ALL WITHIN A 2 TO 3
HOUR PERIOD.
THE GFS BRINGS IT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THAN THE NAM...
AND ALSO A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE NAM. WE WILL BE WATCHING TRENDS
UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL DEVELOP. IF
IT DOES... EXPECT ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING... ALL WITHIN A 2-3
HOUR PERIOD.
RIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...SOUTH WINDS PULL IN WARMER
AND SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST AIR OVER SNOWPACK AND PROBABILITIES OF IFR
CEILINGS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY INTO MSN. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE
REALLY LOW IFR CIGS THAT THE NAM AND HRRR SUGGEST WILL PAN OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
UPDATE...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE DAKOTAS...00Z ECMWF...06Z
GFS/NAM...AND LATEST HRRR/RAP...HAVE DECIDED TO BOOST AFTERNOON
POPS WITH SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS WARM LAYER MOVES IN. FAR NORTHEAST MAY HOLD ONTO ALL
SNOW SO THAT 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS HOLD TRUE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
WESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED MILD PACIFIC AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
PUSHING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WITH A FEW HOURS OF SNOW.
NOT MUCH ALONG THE IL BORDER...BUT 1-2" OF SNOW IN THE SHEBOYGAN
AREA. MOST AREAS JUST RECEIVE A DUSTING.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A SECOND BATCH OF PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DURING A PERIOD WHERE A WARM LAYER DEVELOPS AND
WOULD SUGGESTION FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE BY THIS TIME IS PRETTY
HIGH UP...WITH RATHER DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS NEAR THE WARM NOSE.
WILL LEAN ON THE DRIER SIDE BUT CERTAINLY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THINGS DRY OUT ALOFT BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT. LOOKS LIKE
A STRATUS DECK WILL FORM BUT MOST OF THE UNCERTAINTY IS IN WHETHER
IT WILL BECOME AN ADVECTION SNOW EVENT OVER THE SNOWPACK. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VERY LOW CLOUDS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RISE DURING THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.
SYNOPTIC MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL 500 MB FLOW. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS AND
ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. THE NAM/GFS HOLD ONTO SATURATED BOUNDARY
LAYER BELOW INVERSION DURING THIS TIME...WHILE THE ECMWF/CANADIAN
MODELS ARE DRIER.
THIS RESULTS IN THE NAM/GFS SHOWING BLOTCHY QPF ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT
RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA
AS WELL SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE DRY
DURING THIS TIME.
NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN OVERDONE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THE
RECENT AND DISTANT PAST...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...SO AM SKEPTICAL ON
THE DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO KEEP
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DRY...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...HOLDING IN THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS BRING SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. KEPT
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL BRING COLD TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL THROUGH THE 30S ON SUNDAY...AND INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
GFS/ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA MONDAY...MAINTAINING THE COLD TEMPERATURES
OVER THE AREA. 500 MB FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL OVER THE REGION. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION TO KICK IN AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING A BRIEF REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW POPS REMAINING IN THE FAR EAST. MAY BE ABLE TO
REMOVE THESE LOW POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF MODELS CONTINUE THE
DRY TREND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PASSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER
BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR.
GFS THEN BRINGS A BROAD AREA OF QPF WITHIN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING ANY QPF
WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL USE CONSENSUS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
BATCH OF SNOW THIS MORNING WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND A DUSTING OF SNOW
EXPECTED.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION SO THIS SHOULD NOT BE
AN IMPACT.
RIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...SOUTH WINDS PULL IN WARMER
AND SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST AIR OVER SNOWPACK AND PROBABILITIES OF IFR
CEILINGS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY INTO MSN.
MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT MARGINAL NATURE OF EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY WILL ALSO
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
BRISK SOUTH WINDS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO GENERATE
RATHER HIGH WAVES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...CRAVEN
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1110 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED DEEP...POTENT TROUGHS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND OFF THE COAST
OF CALIFORNIA...RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.. A SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT RIDING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO WESTERN WI. DPVA FROM THIS SHORTWAVE
COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 0.5 INCHES
HAS HELPED SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW FROM CENTRAL MN INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION WAS NICELY EVIDENT AT 850MB
FROM 00Z RAOBS WITH READINGS IN THE 8-12C RANGE IN WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...COMPARED TO -10 TO -14C OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS ADVECTING EASTWARD BY A 30-
40 KT SOUTHWEST WIND PER VWP/PROFILER DATA. INTERESTINGLY TOO...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA WERE IN THE
20S...ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE 500MB FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...SHOWING THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FLATTENING OUT
AND GETTING PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE POTENT BRITISH COLUMBIA TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION RESULTS
IN CONTINUOUS WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDING THE CURRENT SNOW...REPRESENTED WELL BY 800-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS...ANTICIPATING THE EASTWARD PUSH WITH THE UPPER FLOW
WILL HELP KEEP THE SNOWBAND MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
COULD BE A SECOND...CALL IT SURGE...OF SNOW AND FRONTOGENESIS
DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN WI LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AS SUGGESTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...HAVE
KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN TACT FOR TAYLOR COUNTY. ALSO
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WE MAY HAVE TO CONTEND
WITH ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIPITATION. THIS BAND CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN
COMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE JUST
WEST OF IT...WHICH THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM/HIRES-ARW/NMM AND LATEST
RAP/HRRR WANT TO TRAVERSE IT ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF I-94.
THERE COULD BE MID-LEVEL SATURATION ISSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE
CURRENT SNOW...BUT MODELS DO WANT TO SATURATE THINGS BACK UP.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TRACK WISE...
REFER THE MORE NORTHERN RAP/HRRR OVER THE FARTHER SOUTH NAM/HIRES-
ARW/NMM AS THE FARTHER SOUTH MODELS ARE WAY TOO INTENSE AND TOO FAR
SOUTH COMPARED TO CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY. PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES
AN ISSUE WITH THIS WAVE AS WELL WITH WARMER AIR COMING IN ALOFT.
COMPARING MODEL DERIVED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT WITH THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE ALOFT...THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE MAY POSE A MIX WITH SLEET
OR EVEN FREEZING RAIN CONCERN. SINCE THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING...HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION.
AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...CONCERN SHIFTS TO THE CONTINUOUS ADVECTION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD
BE AS HIGH AS THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG I-29 ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SNOWPACK. AS THIS HIGHER MOISTURE TRIES TO ADVECT ACROSS THE
SNOWPACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH MAY ALREADY HAVE DECENT LOW
LEVEL SATURATION FROM THE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANTICIPATING VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. WARMER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 6-10C SHOULD ONLY
FURTHER STRENGTHEN AN INVERSION...AIDING IN TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FOG. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. WITH THE STRATUS IN PLACE
AND IN A GENERAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ANTICIPATING VERY LITTLE
FALL IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
FOCUS OF ATTENTION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS
SQUARELY ON THE POTENT TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT 12Z
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MARCHING THIS FEATURE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z MONDAY. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL...925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
CONTINUING WARMING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...CLIMBING TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 4-9C. DESPITE STRATUS AND MORNING FOG...THESE READINGS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH EVEN A
SMALL CHANCE OF HITTING 50 IN VALLEY AREAS AS SUGGESTED BY THE
REGIONAL CANADIAN. A SERIES OF TWO COLD FRONTS ARE THEN PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...RESULTING IN A FALLING
TEMPERATURE TREND. 925MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -14C SOUTH TO -20C NORTH
BY 12Z MONDAY. A 25-35KT NORTHWEST WIND AT 925MB SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT ALSO ADDS IN A WIND CHILL FACTOR. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...A NEAR 40 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DROP FROM SATURDAYS HIGHS. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND DESPITE THE APPROACH OF
THE POTENT TROUGH...MOSTLY DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FEATURE CHILLY CONDITIONS AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS. DESPITE
ANOTHER SUNNY DAY LIKE YESTERDAY...HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB INTO THE TEENS. SOME PLACES IN SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTH
CENTRAL WI MAY NOT EVEN GET TO 10 ABOVE. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO TANK MONDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH DOES MOVE OFF TO THE EAST QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
RISING TEMPERATURES. SO...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW LOW CAN
TEMPERATURES DROP PRIOR. THE EC AND CANADIAN SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 10S
BELOW ZERO IN SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTH CENTRAL WI...WHEREAS MEX
GUIDANCE IS MORE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW FOR LOWS.
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
WITH THIS TROUGH...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...STAYS TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -4 TO -
6C. WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER FLOW TURNS ZONAL AGAIN...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER REBOUND FOR
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN THE 28.00Z GFS AND
27.18Z DGEX FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
AS MOISTURE ALSO RETURNS. THE 28.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO
POINT DRY...BUT FOR NOW IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
HAVE INTRODUCED 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THURSDAY FROM A MODEL
CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NAM. THERE IS AN MVFR
DECK OF CLOUDS TO THE NORTH-WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT.
FARTHER SOUTH...SOME THIN MID CLOUDS WERE ALL THAT WAS EVIDENT. SOME
SUGGESTION THAT THE LOW CIGS WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS KRST/KLSE THIS
EVENING...WITH PERHAPS SOME AID FROM POOLING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MELTING SNOW PACK. THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME
BR...MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...AND WILL ADJUST AS/IF
NEEDED. ASSUMING LOW CLOUDS DO MOVE IN...PROBABLY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF SATURDAY.
SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH - IF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE REALIZED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON - THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR SOME -FZDZ. CURRENT FORECAST
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE PROBABLY TOO SHALLOW IN SATURATION DEPTH...BUT
IF ITS DEEPER...DRIZZLE PROCESS COULD GET GOING THANKS TO SOME WEAK
LIFT THROUGH THE COLUMN. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
538 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED DEEP...POTENT TROUGHS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND OFF THE COAST
OF CALIFORNIA...RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.. A SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT RIDING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO WESTERN WI. DPVA FROM THIS SHORTWAVE
COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 0.5 INCHES
HAS HELPED SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW FROM CENTRAL MN INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION WAS NICELY EVIDENT AT 850MB
FROM 00Z RAOBS WITH READINGS IN THE 8-12C RANGE IN WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...COMPARED TO -10 TO -14C OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS ADVECTING EASTWARD BY A 30-
40 KT SOUTHWEST WIND PER VWP/PROFILER DATA. INTERESTINGLY TOO...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA WERE IN THE
20S...ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE 500MB FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...SHOWING THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FLATTENING OUT
AND GETTING PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE POTENT BRITISH COLUMBIA TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION RESULTS
IN CONTINUOUS WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDING THE CURRENT SNOW...REPRESENTED WELL BY 800-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS...ANTICIPATING THE EASTWARD PUSH WITH THE UPPER FLOW
WILL HELP KEEP THE SNOWBAND MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
COULD BE A SECOND...CALL IT SURGE...OF SNOW AND FRONTOGENESIS
DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN WI LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AS SUGGESTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...HAVE
KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN TACT FOR TAYLOR COUNTY. ALSO
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WE MAY HAVE TO CONTEND
WITH ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIPITATION. THIS BAND CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN
COMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE JUST
WEST OF IT...WHICH THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM/HIRES-ARW/NMM AND LATEST
RAP/HRRR WANT TO TRAVERSE IT ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF I-94.
THERE COULD BE MID-LEVEL SATURATION ISSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE
CURRENT SNOW...BUT MODELS DO WANT TO SATURATE THINGS BACK UP.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TRACK WISE...
REFER THE MORE NORTHERN RAP/HRRR OVER THE FARTHER SOUTH NAM/HIRES-
ARW/NMM AS THE FARTHER SOUTH MODELS ARE WAY TOO INTENSE AND TOO FAR
SOUTH COMPARED TO CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY. PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES
AN ISSUE WITH THIS WAVE AS WELL WITH WARMER AIR COMING IN ALOFT.
COMPARING MODEL DERIVED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT WITH THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE ALOFT...THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE MAY POSE A MIX WITH SLEET
OR EVEN FREEZING RAIN CONCERN. SINCE THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING...HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION.
AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...CONCERN SHIFTS TO THE CONTINUOUS ADVECTION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD
BE AS HIGH AS THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG I-29 ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SNOWPACK. AS THIS HIGHER MOISTURE TRIES TO ADVECT ACROSS THE
SNOWPACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH MAY ALREADY HAVE DECENT LOW
LEVEL SATURATION FROM THE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANTICIPATING VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. WARMER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 6-10C SHOULD ONLY
FURTHER STRENGTHEN AN INVERSION...AIDING IN TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FOG. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. WITH THE STRATUS IN PLACE
AND IN A GENERAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ANTICIPATING VERY LITTLE
FALL IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
FOCUS OF ATTENTION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS
SQUARELY ON THE POTENT TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT 12Z
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MARCHING THIS FEATURE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z MONDAY. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL...925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
CONTINUING WARMING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...CLIMBING TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 4-9C. DESPITE STRATUS AND MORNING FOG...THESE READINGS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH EVEN A
SMALL CHANCE OF HITTING 50 IN VALLEY AREAS AS SUGGESTED BY THE
REGIONAL CANADIAN. A SERIES OF TWO COLD FRONTS ARE THEN PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...RESULTING IN A FALLING
TEMPERATURE TREND. 925MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -14C SOUTH TO -20C NORTH
BY 12Z MONDAY. A 25-35KT NORTHWEST WIND AT 925MB SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT ALSO ADDS IN A WIND CHILL FACTOR. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...A NEAR 40 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DROP FROM SATURDAYS HIGHS. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND DESPITE THE APPROACH OF
THE POTENT TROUGH...MOSTLY DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FEATURE CHILLY CONDITIONS AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS. DESPITE
ANOTHER SUNNY DAY LIKE YESTERDAY...HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB INTO THE TEENS. SOME PLACES IN SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTH
CENTRAL WI MAY NOT EVEN GET TO 10 ABOVE. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO TANK MONDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH DOES MOVE OFF TO THE EAST QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
RISING TEMPERATURES. SO...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW LOW CAN
TEMPERATURES DROP PRIOR. THE EC AND CANADIAN SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 10S
BELOW ZERO IN SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTH CENTRAL WI...WHEREAS MEX
GUIDANCE IS MORE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW FOR LOWS.
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
WITH THIS TROUGH...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...STAYS TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -4 TO -
6C. WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER FLOW TURNS ZONAL AGAIN...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER REBOUND FOR
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN THE 28.00Z GFS AND
27.18Z DGEX FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
AS MOISTURE ALSO RETURNS. THE 28.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO
POINT DRY...BUT FOR NOW IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
HAVE INTRODUCED 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THURSDAY FROM A MODEL
CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
THE BAND OF -SN HAS EXITED EAST OF THE TAF SITES AS OF 11Z...WITH
VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THRU THE MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING
TEMPS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH FROM
MELTING SNOW. THIS MOISTURE IS THEN BE TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG
INVERSION NEAR 925MB THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MVFR CLOUD DECKS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. A SMALL CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIP AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER SHALLOW OR ANY PRECIP
FALLING FROM CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 700MB. LEFT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOWER CHANCES AND
SOME UNCERTAINTY IF IT WILL OCCUR OR NOT. BIGGER CONCERN IS
CONTINUED SATURATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER/LAYER BELOW THE INVERSION
TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR BR/FG AFTER MIDNIGHT. INTRODUCED SOME 2-
4SM BR TO THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z-08Z. ONCE ANY BR/FG WOULD
FORM...APPEARS IT COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE DAY SAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ017.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
221 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED DEEP...POTENT TROUGHS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND OFF THE COAST
OF CALIFORNIA...RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.. A SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT RIDING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO WESTERN WI. DPVA FROM THIS SHORTWAVE
COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 0.5 INCHES
HAS HELPED SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW FROM CENTRAL MN INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION WAS NICELY EVIDENT AT 850MB
FROM 00Z RAOBS WITH READINGS IN THE 8-12C RANGE IN WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...COMPARED TO -10 TO -14C OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS ADVECTING EASTWARD BY A 30-
40 KT SOUTHWEST WIND PER VWP/PROFILER DATA. INTERESTINGLY TOO...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA WERE IN THE
20S...ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE 500MB FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...SHOWING THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FLATTENING OUT
AND GETTING PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE POTENT BRITISH COLUMBIA TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION RESULTS
IN CONTINUOUS WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDING THE CURRENT SNOW...REPRESENTED WELL BY 800-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS...ANTICIPATING THE EASTWARD PUSH WITH THE UPPER FLOW
WILL HELP KEEP THE SNOWBAND MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
COULD BE A SECOND...CALL IT SURGE...OF SNOW AND FRONTOGENESIS
DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN WI LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AS SUGGESTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...HAVE
KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN TACT FOR TAYLOR COUNTY. ALSO
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WE MAY HAVE TO CONTEND
WITH ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIPITATION. THIS BAND CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN
COMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE JUST
WEST OF IT...WHICH THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM/HIRES-ARW/NMM AND LATEST
RAP/HRRR WANT TO TRAVERSE IT ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF I-94.
THERE COULD BE MID-LEVEL SATURATION ISSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE
CURRENT SNOW...BUT MODELS DO WANT TO SATURATE THINGS BACK UP.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TRACK WISE...
REFER THE MORE NORTHERN RAP/HRRR OVER THE FARTHER SOUTH NAM/HIRES-
ARW/NMM AS THE FARTHER SOUTH MODELS ARE WAY TOO INTENSE AND TOO FAR
SOUTH COMPARED TO CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY. PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES
AN ISSUE WITH THIS WAVE AS WELL WITH WARMER AIR COMING IN ALOFT.
COMPARING MODEL DERIVED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT WITH THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE ALOFT...THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE MAY POSE A MIX WITH SLEET
OR EVEN FREEZING RAIN CONCERN. SINCE THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING...HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION.
AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...CONCERN SHIFTS TO THE CONTINUOUS ADVECTION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD
BE AS HIGH AS THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG I-29 ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SNOWPACK. AS THIS HIGHER MOISTURE TRIES TO ADVECT ACROSS THE
SNOWPACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH MAY ALREADY HAVE DECENT LOW
LEVEL SATURATION FROM THE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANTICIPATING VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. WARMER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 6-10C SHOULD ONLY
FURTHER STRENGTHEN AN INVERSION...AIDING IN TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FOG. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. WITH THE STRATUS IN PLACE
AND IN A GENERAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ANTICIPATING VERY LITTLE
FALL IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
FOCUS OF ATTENTION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS
SQUARELY ON THE POTENT TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT 12Z
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MARCHING THIS FEATURE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z MONDAY. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL...925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
CONTINUING WARMING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...CLIMBING TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 4-9C. DESPITE STRATUS AND MORNING FOG...THESE READINGS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH EVEN A
SMALL CHANCE OF HITTING 50 IN VALLEY AREAS AS SUGGESTED BY THE
REGIONAL CANADIAN. A SERIES OF TWO COLD FRONTS ARE THEN PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...RESULTING IN A FALLING
TEMPERATURE TREND. 925MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -14C SOUTH TO -20C NORTH
BY 12Z MONDAY. A 25-35KT NORTHWEST WIND AT 925MB SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT ALSO ADDS IN A WIND CHILL FACTOR. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...A NEAR 40 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DROP FROM SATURDAYS HIGHS. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND DESPITE THE APPROACH OF
THE POTENT TROUGH...MOSTLY DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FEATURE CHILLY CONDITIONS AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS. DESPITE
ANOTHER SUNNY DAY LIKE YESTERDAY...HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB INTO THE TEENS. SOME PLACES IN SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTH
CENTRAL WI MAY NOT EVEN GET TO 10 ABOVE. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO TANK MONDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH DOES MOVE OFF TO THE EAST QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
RISING TEMPERATURES. SO...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW LOW CAN
TEMPERATURES DROP PRIOR. THE EC AND CANADIAN SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 10S
BELOW ZERO IN SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTH CENTRAL WI...WHEREAS MEX
GUIDANCE IS MORE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW FOR LOWS.
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
WITH THIS TROUGH...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...STAYS TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -4 TO -
6C. WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER FLOW TURNS ZONAL AGAIN...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER REBOUND FOR
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN THE 28.00Z GFS AND
27.18Z DGEX FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
AS MOISTURE ALSO RETURNS. THE 28.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO
POINT DRY...BUT FOR NOW IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
HAVE INTRODUCED 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THURSDAY FROM A MODEL
CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014
THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OVERSPREAD BOTH TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. IT
SHOULD MOVE INTO KRST SHORTLY AFTER 06Z AND BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS...IT COULD PRODUCE AN HOUR OR TWO OF IFR CONDITIONS.
STILL EXPECTING THE SNOW TO ARRIVE IN KLSE AROUND 09Z AND PRODUCE
MVFR CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING BOTH SITES TO HAVE ABOUT 3 TO 4
HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FRONTOGENESIS
IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER MOVE PAST THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN POP BACK UP TO VFR FOR A WHILE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ARRIVES. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION BUT IT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE CEILINGS BACK DOWN TO MVFR WHERE
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AS WARMER
AIR STARTS TO SPREAD IN FRIDAY EVENING...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP WITH THE LOW LEVELS ALREADY SATURATED BELOW THE
INVERSION. THE 28.00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
LITTLE BIT OF TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD AT THE SURFACE THROUGH 29.06Z
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ017.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
807 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2014
WINDS HAVE REALLY STARTED TO COME DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS
SHOW THIS COLD FRONT NOW DRAPED FROM NORTHERN PLATTE COUNTY AND
POINTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. THE WIND THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH EVEN
MORE AS THIS WIND SHIFT OCCURS. COULD STAY A LITTLE BREEZY WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THIS FRONT APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO BE ABLE TO
GET OVER THE TERRAIN...BUT WINDS ALOFT AND LLVL CAG-CPR GRADIENTS
ARE UNSUPPORTIVE. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE.
LIGHT SNOW IS LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD SHORTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. LUSK IS FINALLY
REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AS OF THIS WRITING. EXPECT SNOW WILL SPREAD
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z SUN AS LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT STRENGTHENS IN THE RRQ OF
THE UPPER JET NOW OVER CENTRAL WY. HRRR APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH
THAT THINKING AS WELL. STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING CRAZY WITH
RESPECT TO ACCUMULATIONS. MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW OVER EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS INTERACTING WITH THE PINE
RIDGE RESULTING IN VERY LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...SO ADDED MENTION OF FOG THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2014
ONGOING FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE TIGHT PREFRONTAL
LLVL GRADIENTS AND RESULTANT STRONG SFC WINDS. LLVL KCAG-KCPR
GRADIENTS HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 60-70 METER RANGE
THRU AT LEAST 06Z. MIXING HAS BEEN UNINHIBITED TODAY TOO...AS
THE STANDING LEE CLOUD HAS SHIFTED SUFFICIENTLY EAST TO ALLOW FULL
INSOLATION. WINDS HAVE RESPONDED...REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA AT
MOST LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY PEAK GUSTS OF
60 TO 65 MPH HAVING BEEN OBSERVED ALONG LEEWARD SLOPES TO AS FAR
EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. AREAS AROUND ARLINGTON HAVE STRUGGLED
SOMEWHAT AS THE BEST AXIS OF SUBSIDENCE IS JUST EAST. SEE THESE
WINDS CONTINUING AT LEAST IN PART THRU A CHUNK OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BREAKS UP THE GRADIENT. SPEAKING
OF THE COLD FRONT...ITS LOOKING IMPRESSIVE ON 21Z SFC ANALYSIS
ALREADY SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ON THE DOORSTEP OF NEWCASTLE. TO
ILLUSTRATE THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS FELL FROM 55F TO 16F
AT GILLETTE OVER THE SPAN OF 2 HOURS WITH FROPA. MODELS ARE ALL
SIMILAR WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING MOVING IT INTO THE FAR NORTH EARLY
THIS EVENING AND THRU THE REST OF CWA THRU SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAYS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
FALLING TEMPS THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. SNOW CHANCES WILL LAG
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED MOVING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AREAS AROUND DOUGLAS WILL SEE SNOW
CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOCATIONS FROM RAWLINS TO LARAMIE TO
CHEYENNE HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PERHAPS 1-2 INCHES ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES AND PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH
FROM CHEYENNE TO KIMBALL. SNOWY RANGE/SIERRA MADRES WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT THOSE SHOULD ONLY FALL IN THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE FRONT RETREATS QUICKLY TO
THE EAST AND FLOW REMAINS ZONAL. AFTER A CLOUDY SUNDAY...EXPECT
CLOUDS TO DECREASE FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD ON
MONDAY THO...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY REMAINING IN THE 30S. LLVL
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT SHAPING UP FOR WIND PRONE AREAS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2014
TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS.
WEDNESDAY...TRANSITIONS TO A MORE MOIST UNSETTLED PATTERN AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO WEST SOUTHWEST...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT APPROACHING OUR COUNTIES AND WITH THE LOW
AND MID LEVELS MOISTENING. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...IT APPEARS
THAT SCATTERED TO LIKELY...MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS...WILL DEVELOP DUE TO
OROGRAPHICS ALONG AND WEST OF A LARAMIE TO DOUGLAS LINE...AND
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES OF SOUTHERN
CARBON COUNTY.
THURSDAY...DRIER DAY ON TAP AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WANES AND
WITH NO OBVIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT AFFECTING OUR
COUNTIES...THOUGH MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE RANGE OF SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY...DRY ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTION IS LOW AS THE 29/12Z GFS
INDICATES SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR COUNTIES WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM UTAH...WHILE THE 29/12Z ECMWF HAS A
WELL DEVELOPED RIDGE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL WYOMING. IN EITHER
CASE...MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS DRY. WILL BLEND
WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES FOR TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE
MODELS SHOW SOME AGREEMENT.
SATURDAY...MODELS START TO AGREE MORE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR COUNTIES. LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S AND 40S...NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2014
CANADIAN COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE SITES
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR AND IFR DEVELOPING IN
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND LIGHT SNOW WITHIN 1 TO 3 HOURS AFTER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT. WINDS TURNING NORTH
AND GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WINDS
THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2014
STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND IMMEDIATE EASTERN PLAINS LOCATION THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT WILL BEEN IN THE TEENS. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL END TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY AND USHERING IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...CAH
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
330 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
Strong cold/polar front was pushing se into southeast parts of
WI/IA and nearing the Quad Cities early this morning. Areas of
dense fog over snow pack over northern IL from I-80 north but no
snow cover or fog over central and southeast IL so far. HRRR model
shows some of this fog moving se across the IL river valley this
morning but coverage is limited and will leave out of forecast
today. Cold front to reach near Galesburg by 12Z/6 am, halfway
through CWA by 18Z/noon and approaching Lawrenceville around
00Z/6 pm today. Some patchy drizzle or very light rain showers to
occur this morning with frontal boundary, and light rain becomes
more likely in southeast IL later this afternoon and evening.
Highs today to be reached early this morning nw of the IL river in
the upper 30s and lower 40s, while southeast IL has temps climb
into the low to mid 60s by midday with breezy sw winds ahead of
front before temps fall behind the cold front during the afternoon.
Light rain chances linger se of I-70 overnight and surface temps
to fall below freezing late tonight and give chance of light
freezing rain. QPF amounts are quite light by that time in
southeast IL and brunt of qpf shifts south of highway 50 Monday
morning where small chances of light freezing rain occurs. Lows
tonight range from the mid teens nw of the IL river, to around 30F
in far southeast IL near the Wabash river. Much colder Monday with
highs in the mid to upper 20s in central IL and 30-35F in
southeast IL along with blustery north winds. This due to arctic
high pressure over Alberta and MT that strengthens to 1045 mb over
the upper MS river valley Monday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
00Z extended models are mostly showing a nearly zonal upper level
flow over IL during mid and late week. Strong Canadian high
pressure shifts into southeast Canada Tue night while another high
pressure system settles north of the Great Lakes by Thu. Meanwhile
a frontal boundary stays south of IL over the TN valley into north
Texas and keeps more active wx pattern over southern half of IL
from Wed night through Fri. Models have trended further south with
qpf fields and have trended forecast with lower pops over northenr
counties during this time frame. Continue to mention a mix of
precipitation including light freezing rain over parts of central
IL (850 mb temps generally stay at or above 0C while surface temps
near or below freezing), with better chance of rain and higher qpf
in southeast IL south of I-70. Weak surface low pressure ejects ne
from southern plains into KY Fri night and pulls light
precipitation se of IL by overnight Fri night with central IL then
generally dry next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
Mainly VFR conditions across central IL except for lingering MVFR
ceilings near the IN border and areas of MVFR visibility
developing from KPIA northward where clear skies and lighter winds
have allowed some thin fog to develop. Other than MVFR ceilings
pushing out of the area in the next few hours, conditions
expected to remain relatively unchanged until a cold front arrives
in the area after 12Z. Cold front will cross northwest to
southeast across forecast area Sunday. Front should reach KGBG
around 12Z, and KLWV around 00Z. MVFR cigs expected behind front,
as well as a few -shra in vicinity of front. MVFR ceilings
expected to clear after 00Z Monday. Winds generally S8-15 kts
before the front, switching to NW 10-16g20-25 kt behind the front.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
311 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
AS OF 3AM THE COLD FRONT HAS PLOWED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
KANSAS PASSING THROUGH HUTCHINSON SHORTLY AFTER THE 3AM HOUR.
TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY WINDS
HAVE STEADILY HAD GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED MILD...ONLY QUICKLY TO CHANGE AS THE
FRONT PASSES.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THE
COLD FRONT IS AHEAD OF GUIDANCE AND EVEN AHEAD OF PROJECTIONS JUST
A FEW HOURS AGO. THE FRONT IS REALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE. FEEL THE HRRR HAS ONE OF THE BEST GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS AND
HAVE USED THAT AS A FIRST GUESS...MODIFYING SLIGHTLY FOR HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE AND HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. MOST OF THE STATE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
30S. THE FRONT WILL SLOW SLIGHTLY AS THE WINDS COMPONENT BECOMES
LESS PERPENDICULAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS CAUSING THAT AREA TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR LONGER TODAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
MONDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE BUT STAY SLIGHTLY BREEZY DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING.
BY TUESDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
WITH 40S EXPECTED.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED IS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WHICH
WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST
AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL STAY IN THE
40S AND 50S WHILE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
OVERNIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED
SNOW AS A POTENTIAL WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND RAIN
DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY.
WHILE OUT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF KANSAS COULD BE NEXT SUNDAY. WILL WANT
TO WATCH LATER FORECASTS TO SEE HOW THIS DISTURBANCE EVOLVES WITH
LATER GUIDANCE.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS FOR
A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW...BUT
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE SHORT TEMPO GROUPS.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 39 16 31 16 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 35 12 30 15 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 36 14 29 15 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 41 18 32 17 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 46 18 32 17 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELL 30 12 29 14 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 32 13 30 15 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 32 15 31 15 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 33 13 30 15 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 55 20 33 23 / 10 10 10 0
CHANUTE 49 18 32 19 / 10 10 0 0
IOLA 47 18 31 19 / 10 10 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 54 18 33 21 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1049 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
ITS BEEN A SUNNY AND VERY WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS KICT COUNTRY AS
SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS HAVE KICKED TEMPERATURES TO AROUND
70. BY REACHING 72 DEGREES AT 2 PM...RUSSELL SET A RECORD WHICH
HAS EASILY BROKEN THE MARK OF 68 SET IN 2003.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
PER THE LATEST NAM...RAP AND HRRR MODEL RUNS...SPED UP THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH THESE SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASSES. IT WILL LIKELY REACH I-70 BY 3AM...HUTCHINSON BY
5AM...WICHITA-EL DORADO-HARPER BY 6-7AM...AND PARSONS BY 11AM-
NOON. CONSEQUENTLY...LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS BY QUITE A BIT DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ADK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
REST OF THE WEEKEND:
THE "STAR" OF THE SHOW CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
CURVES FROM A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN ACROSS
SOUTHERN SD TO NORTHERN WY. THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER DECK
TROF EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE WA/OR BORDER. THE UPPER
TROF WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY THEN SPRINTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE
PROCESS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD CURVE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
THROUGH CENTRAL KS...TO THE KS/CO BORDER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS SHARP AND WITH THE COLD
SURGE ARRIVING CENTRAL KS SUNDAY MORNING AND SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON NEARLY ALL AREAS (THE EXCEPTION IS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS) WILL EXPERIENCE FALLING TEMPERATURES AS
SUNDAY PROGRESSES. THE COLD FRONT HAS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE TO
PLAY WITH AND AS SUCH CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION REMAIN VERY
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE DOWN STAIRWELLS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN RUSSELL TO THE LOW 20S IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS. NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS WILL PUT A BITE
INTO THE AIR FOR SURE AS STRONG(!) CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY FROM
SUNDAY THRU MONDAY.
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
AFTER A VERY CHILLY START A FAIRLY RAPID WARMUP IS SLATED FOR THE
REGION AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS LONG THE FRONT RANGE TO
ALLOW SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS TO RETURN TO KS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL VISIT THE NEIGHBORHOOD FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK-WEEK AS A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS WOULD
EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF WOULD EXPERIENCE A
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIXTURE (ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT). A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WILL PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND THEREBY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS FOR
A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW...BUT
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE SHORT TEMPO GROUPS.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 37 38 17 33 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 34 38 15 32 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 36 37 16 32 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 39 40 18 33 / 0 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 42 43 20 34 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 30 34 12 31 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 32 36 13 32 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 31 36 16 32 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 33 37 15 31 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 52 56 23 34 / 0 10 10 10
CHANUTE 48 49 20 33 / 0 10 10 10
IOLA 46 48 19 33 / 0 10 10 0
PARSONS-KPPF 50 52 21 34 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH WEST MICHIGAN TODAY AND SEND
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
20S. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WILL WARM INTO THE 30S BY MID WEEK AND
REMAIN THERE FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS MAINLY DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS...THOUGH PCPN CHANCES
ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.
SFC OBS SHOW A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR MQT SWWD TO EASTERN
IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATER
THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW...LESS THAN 4K FT AND SO PCPN WILL
BE LIMITED TO A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...IF AT ALL.
ANY PCPN THAT DEVELOPS WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
IT/S WORTH NOTING THE LATEST HRRR DOESN/T SHOW ANY PCPN OVER THE CWA
TODAY.
COLD AIR POURS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
20S. ORDINARILY THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS
H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -13C. HOWEVER...WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS ONLY
REACHING 3K FT...THE DGZ...WHAT THERE IS OF IT...REMAINS IN THE TOP
OF THE CLOUD WITH NOT MUCH LIFT WITHIN IT. THUS WE DON/T EXPECT
ACCUMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SETTLES OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WX.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. OVERALL IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT.
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SMALL RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
RIDGING ARRIVES FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
AIDED...AIDED BY MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW...SUPPORTING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE ARRIVES THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAKENING. WHILE MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE DGZ...BUT
POTENTIALLY VERY DRY BELOW...IT APPEARS WE WILL SEE MAINLY VIRGA
FROM THIS WAVE. I ENDED UP HOLDING ONTO A VERY LOW POP FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FORE THIS EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER (ALL SITES ARE MVFR FUEL RESTRICTIONS
AT 04Z)) AND I WOULD EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE AS WARMER AND EVEN
MORE MORE MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN.
WINDS CURRENTLY ARE GUST AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS IS NOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE CORE OF STRONGER WINDS IS EAST
OF THE AREA AFTER 09Z... THERE WILL BE LESS MIXING SO VISIBILITIES
SHOULD START OF COME DOWN TOO. AS THE FRONT COMES (16Z MKG TO 20Z
JXN) THROUGH I EXPECT MOST TAF SITES TO BE IFR VSBY/CIGS. THE I-94
TAF SITES MAY SEE SOME DRIZZLE TOO AT THE MOISTURE WILL BE A
LITTLE DEEPER DOWN THERE AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. EXPECT SLOW
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. WAVES WILL REMAIN AOA
3 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
RIVER LEVELS WILL RECEDE DURING THE NEXT WEEK AS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF APPRECIABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
342 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION...WHICH WILL BREAK UP ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AS
925 MB WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 30 TO 40 KNOTS...HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE TOO MUCH SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO UPPER LEVELS FOR ANY MIXING TO
REACH THE GROUND ACCORDING TO MODEL SOUNDINGS. LATEST MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS IN
THE NORTHWEST DELTA. HAVE SET THE GRIDS WITH GUST UP TO 30-35 MPH IN
THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION. SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF
WIND OUT OF THE HWO. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AS
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. FOR TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S. THIS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS AT BETTER FOG POTENTIAL AREAWIDE FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WILL PUT IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE GO INTO MONDAY THE CHANCES
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEAST. LOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO ALLBLEND FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS RAW BLEND GUIDANCE WITH THE SHALLOW AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS
POPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO ALLBLEND GUIDANCE./17/
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY. THE LIGHT POST
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE TUESDAY MORNING AND
DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL REMAIN QUITE A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS OUR DELTA REGION WHILE OUT SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 70S. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AREAWIDE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME NEAR ZONAL TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD NOSES BACK ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. THE RESULTING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
WORK TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND STRETCH BACK ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
WAA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA THURSDAY THE
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR CHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIMITED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA. OUR WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS INDUCED RIDGING ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW DROPPING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS...ENSEMBLES AND
ECMWF DIFFER ON THIS FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER OPEN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT THE SAME
TIME. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE LIMITED OVER OUR CWA DURING THE
WEEKEND THOUGH AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND
ALOFT DOMINATING OVER OUR AREA. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR-IFR CEILINGS WERE DEVELOPING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH
LOUISIANA... SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS EAST MISSISSIPPI EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION WITH
IFR-MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE DAYBREAK MAINLY AT GTR/JAN/HKS/MEI/HBG.
FLIGHT CATS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN ALL AREAS BY MIDDAY TODAY AT
THE LATEST WITH WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY
IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. THE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF FOR TONIGHT./17/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 73 57 70 49 / 8 9 29 31
MERIDIAN 73 53 69 51 / 4 7 17 19
VICKSBURG 75 56 72 44 / 11 9 42 35
HATTIESBURG 75 56 73 53 / 6 7 11 14
NATCHEZ 73 58 75 48 / 10 8 33 37
GREENVILLE 74 57 64 39 / 12 17 61 40
GREENWOOD 72 57 67 43 / 12 15 50 40
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
17/22/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1133 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 937 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
Made some minor tweeks to the forecast for tonight. Boosted mins a
tad in light of modest and increasing southerly winds and rising
surface dewpoints. Also delayed the arrival of cloud cover. Stratus
that was across the eastern CWA has exited into far southeast IL
and present southwest to westerly lower trop winds would suggest
it won`t spread back to the east. Rather low-level RH progs from
the RAP and the new 00Z NAM suggest stratus will redevelop across
northern AR and southern MO betweem 08-12z, and then become more
widespread across the entire area on Sunday morning. Strong cold
front is still poised to blast across the CWA on Sunday accompanied
by gusty northerly winds and sharply falling temperatures. Temperatures
could drop 25-30 degrees in less than an hour.
Glass
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 221 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
This period remains rather quiet. Biggest question thru the period
will be cloud cover. Area of ST over the ern portions of the CWA has
finally started to break up as of 20z. Mdls have not been handling
these clouds well and therefore have low confidence in trends
overnight. Moisture return is apparent in latest sat image with CU
field across the srn states. Mdls suggest this moisture will move
nwd with ST developing across much of the srn half of the CWA by
morning. The approaching cdfnt will also bring clouds, but shud lag
behind the fnt slightly. Some uncertainty exists with these clouds
as snow cover may be aiding in development. Regardless, with strong
sly winds expected thru the night, clouds are not expected to have a
large impact on temps.
Mdls are in good agreement thru this period. With the cdfnt expected
to reach the nrn portions of the CWA around or just after 12z,
expect temps to remain close to steady thru much of the night. Given
the uncertainty with cloud cover, have trended twd a compromise.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Main focus thru this period will be precip chances and p-type for
Sun night and Mon.
Uncertainty regarding cloud cover mentioned above continues thru
much of Sun. However, the one difference is that amount of
post-frontal cloud cover will have an impact on temps during the
day. However, given temps are currently dropping some 20 degrees
with fropa with nearly full sun, believe current forecast trends are
good.
Believe mdls are producing too much QPF ahead of the cdfnt. Mdls do
show a fair amount of low level lift just behind the fnt, mainly
associated with frontogenesis. However, mdls also have QPF ahead of
the fnt. While DZ can not be completely ruled out, believe this
precip is bad and caused by unrealistic moisture return within the
mdl. Have therefore focused PoPs along and just behind the cdfnt.
This changes slightly for Sun night, mainly during the eve hours. An
approaching s/w and better low level forcing shud help enhance
precip during this time, but likely will be just SE of the CWA. Have
therefore lowered PoPs thru Sun night, but kept highest PoPs along
srn and sern portions of the CWA. While mdls are in fairly good
agreement regarding timing of fropa, differences exist regarding how
fast the cold air will push in behind the fnt. The NAM/ECMWF/local
WRF are currently in good agreement in temp trends thru Mon and have
trended twd these solns. Mdls do agree in keeping precip as RA/FZRA.
Do have some minor ice accumulations across far srn portions of the
CWA. However, with 4 inch soil temps currently in the mid 40 degree
range and 2 inch temps in the lower 50s per the MO mesonet sites, do
not currently anticipate much accumulation on the ground and shud be
confined to elevated surfaces.
Mon night and Tues are expected to remain dry. Have trended warmer
than the MET/MAV guidance as the sfc ridge shud be S of the region
and sly flow shud have returned. However, given some uncertainty in
amount of cloud cover possible, these temps may need to be lowered
with future updates.
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Focus turns to precip chances thru much of the period. While mdls
are in good agreement at the beginning of the period, differences
are rather large by the end of the forecast period. Due to this
uncertainty and low confidence, have made minor changes to the prev
forecast. Do anticipate temps to moderate based on height rises over
the region. However, p-types may present a problem and may need to
be adjusted with future updates.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
Clear skies and southerly winds to persist through the overnight
hours. Otherwise sc is expected to develop south of taf sites and
slowly track to the north ahead of cold front that will slide
through region today. SC to also develop along and behind front
with all of these clouds merging together over taf sites by mid
to late morning. Front to move through KUIN by 14z Sunday, KCOU
by 17z Sunday and metro area tafs by 20z Sunday with winds veering
to the northwest. By afternoon, KUIN and KCOU will see winds become
gusty around 25kts from the north then lose gustiness by 00z
Monday. As for any precipitation, moisture will be limited so left
tafs dry for now. Low level jet to persist from the southwest
overnight, so kept mention of LLWS in all tafs.
Specifics for KSTL:
Clear skies and southerly winds to persist through the overnight
hours. Otherwise sc is expected to develop over southern Missouri and
slowly track to the north ahead of cold front that will slide
through region today. SC to also develop along and behind front
with all of these clouds merging together over metro area by early
afternoon. Front to move through metro area by 20z Sunday with
winds veering to the northwest. As for any precipitation,
moisture will be limited so left taf dry for now. Low level jet
to persist from the southwest overnight, so kept mention of LLWS
til 15z Sunday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
354 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST STAYING NORTH OF THE LAKE BETWEEN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE A LITTLE
OVER NW OH EARLY THIS MORNING...MOSTLY CLOUDY SHOULD HANDLE IT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE/SHOWERS SO
FAR. BACKING OFF ON THE THREAT FOR THE MORNING AND KEEPING A
CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE OK
AND SOME OMEGA...SO A CHANCE LOOKS GOOD. WILL GO WITH LIKELY OVER
NW OH BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSER TO THAT AREA SO THEY WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO GET SOME SHOWERS. HIGHS ARE TOUGH TODAY.
WITH A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WENT
TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. RECORDS HIGHS ARE
MAINLY NEAR 70 FOR TODAY AND THE NORMAL IS IN THE MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WENT WITH LIKELY ESPECIALLY EARLY AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. THERE SEEMS
TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND OMEGA FOR LIKELY. STABLE SO NO MENTION OF
THUNDER. QPF SHOULD BE LESS THEN A QUARTER. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT
MOVE IN THAT QUICK...THE GFS SEEMS TOO FAST I.E. THE 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS DROPS TOO QUICKLY VERSUS THE 850 TEMPERATURE. KEPT THE
THREAT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. ON MONDAY PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND WITH A
RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE THE THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCE. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY AND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO KEPT THE POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA. THE HIGHS ARE WEDNESDAY ARE TOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WENT
A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEARLY ZONAL FAST MOVING FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND SO SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION AND CAUSE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THEN...AS HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON FRIDAY AND MOSTLY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LLWS REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN
A WITH 2KFT WINDS 23050KT ON AVERAGE. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH
MVFR TO NEAR IFR BY MORNING. HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS LIGHT RAIN MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL OHIO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
THINKING WHATEVER DEVELOPS WILL BE LIGHT AND WEST WITH EITHER
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL BE LOW MVFR...DROPPING
TO IFR TIME TO TIME IN DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY IN LIGHT SHOWERS AND COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY KEEP
WINDS AT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT
WILL STILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING. THEN...AS COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AGAIN. MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON MONDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING AND
BECOME EASTERLY. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THEY DO
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY SO I DONT SEE DROPPING SMALL CRAFT
ANY TIME IN THE NEAR FUTURE. ACTUALLY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS FINALLY DROP OFF TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1254 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEED OF WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...AND MILD
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING CONTINUING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
LIGHT RAIN BEFORE COMING TO AN END. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SWRLY SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. NUMERICAL
MODELS SHOWING A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BETWEEN 800-850 MB TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WITH DRY AIR
ABOVE. AIRMASS TO MOISTEN UP WITH GOOD SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LLJ. IN WAA PATTERN WITH GOOD WINDS AND CLOUDS TEMPS LOOKS TO
HOLD NEARLY STEADY OR SLIGHT RISE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER BASED ON TRENDS. HRRR AND RAP
SOLNS WUD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPS TO OUR NE AND ILN/S FA
STAYS DRY OVERNIGHT. HAVE SLOWED DOWN ONSET BUT GIVEN LIFT AND LLJ
HAVE KEPT A LOW POP CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.
PREV DISCUSSION...
MID AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGESTED THE LONG-
ADVERTISED MOIST SWLY FETCH WAS ENTRENCHING ITSELF ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE DATA SHOWED A LARGE REGION
OF STRATUS /2-3KFT CEILINGS IN THE LOCAL AREA/ FROM SRN OHIO ALL
THE WAY TO LOUISIANA. 29.19Z RTMA DWPT ANALYSIS AND METARS SHOWED
TONGUE OF 50+ DWPTS FROM SERN MO TO THE GULF COAST SPREADING
NORTHEAST...AND 40+ DWPTS HAD ALREADY MADE IT INTO THE TRI-STATE
AREA WITH RAPID/STRONG MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING ON 30-40KT 925MB
JET PER WSR-88D VWP NETWORK. WHILE THERE HAD BEEN SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS ARK/MO EARLIER...MOISTURE THUS FAR HAS
LARGELY REMAINED TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE REPORTABLE
PRECIPITATION...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SHALLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
FOR TONIGHT...FIRST TEMPERATURES...SAW NO REASON TO SHOW ANY DROP
TO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HAVE TAKEN MID AFTERNOON READINGS AND
USED THOSE AS A SPRINGBOARD TO CONTINUED SLOW RISE OVERNIGHT. SOME
AREAS MAY BRIEFLY STEADY OUT OR SLOWLY FALL AT VARIOUS TIMES
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT BULK OF HI-RES DATA AND SUBJECTIVE
1000-900MB TEMP ADVECTION SUGGESTS TEMPS AT 12Z WILL BE 3-4F
HIGHER THAN THEY WILL BE AT 00Z THIS EVENING...SO LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET AND RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S.
29.09Z AND 29.15Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE /0.01"/ PRECIP
CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...WITH BULK OF
DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF /ECMWF...NAM...GFS...AND VARIOUS CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE/ CONTINUING WITH THE CLASSIC DRIZZLE QPF OUTPUT
LOOK /LARGE AREAS OF SPECKLED VERY LIGHT QPF/. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODEL SOURCES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH INFLUX OF MOISTURE MENTIONED IN
OBSERVATIONAL DATA ABOVE. BY 06Z...DEPTH OF SATURATED />85% RH/
LAYER WILL BE NEAR 1.5KM...WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR DRIZZLE
PRODUCTION ESPECIALLY IN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR SURFACE BOUNDARY/FOCUS MECHANISMS. FCST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW AN INCREASE TOWARD 60KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER SUGGESTING SOME TURBULENCE MAY ENHANCE VERTICAL
MOTIONS AND COLLISION/COALESCENCE PROCESSES. MODEL QPF SHOW
EXPANSION/DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 06Z IN ACCORDANCE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. 285-295K
LAYERED ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND MIXING RATIOS ALL COINCIDE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET SO PUSHED MEASURABLE RAIN
CHANCES /VIA DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN/ TOWARD LATER IN THE
NIGHT. IN A RELATIVE SENSE...MOST OF THE NWP FOCUS ON OHIO FOR THE
BEST CHANCES OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN PEAKING TOWARD THE END OF
THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THREAT FOR DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES INTO AND THROUGH
SUNDAY. DEPTH OF SATURATED LAYER REMAINS NEAR 1.5 KM LENDING SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO HOW WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE OR AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE /WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS CLOSER TO 2KM GIVEN ABSENCE OF
SHORTWAVE OR DEEPER VERTICAL MOTION/. THINK THE ONGOING 60%
CHANCES WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING STILL HOLD AS A GOOD START...GIVEN
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE DEPTH ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT THE
ALMOST UNANIMOUS 0.05-0.10" QPF ON MODELS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. VERIFIED AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE FAR LESS THAN WHAT
MODELS ARE SHOWING...ANYWHERE FROM A HUNDREDTH OR TWO TO FIVE
HUNDREDTHS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WAVES OF VERY WEAK LOWER LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION TIED TO ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND SUBTLE INCREASES/DECREASES IN DEPTH OF SATURATED LAYER
SUGGEST DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN AREAS WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS AT
ANY ONE LOCATION. GIVEN SIGNAL HASN/T CHANGED OVER THE PAST 48
HOURS...WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY WITH ONGOING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR
A VERY LIGHT AMOUNT EVENT THAT WILL LIKELY MEASURE AT SOME POINT
BUT IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS WILL BE A VERY LIGHT RAIN EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WON/T WARM TOO MUCH FROM EARLY MORNING WARMTH GIVEN
THE THICK LOW CLOUDS AND DAMP CONDITIONS...BUT MID/UPPER 50S AND
PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S LOOKS REASONABLE.
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CUT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
IS WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN BECOMES MORE CERTAIN AS THE
MOISTURE/FORCING PEAK IN A RELATIVE SENSE NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL FGEN CIRCULATION CLEARLY SHOWN MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. DEPTH OF SATURATED LAYER EASILY SURPASSES 2KM
WHICH SHOULD BE PLENTY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH MAGNITUDE OR QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
THREATEN ANY CHANGE TO SNOW. SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR
VERY BRIEF MIX IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SLOW A BIT BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY CHANGE IN PHASE OF PRECIP.
MONDAY WILL BE A MUCH COLDER DAY AS BRIEF CP INTRUSION MOVES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE STEADY OR SHOW ONLY SLOW RISES
THROUGH THE DAY OWING TO DECENT NNELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC
LIFT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER FORCING MAY
REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOWER CHANCE
AT THIS POINT...PRIMARILY ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA.
IN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT SOME NON
DIURNAL TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER40S/LOWER 50S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL HELP PUSH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S
SOUTH.
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER SURGE
OF MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALOFT...LEADING TO GOOD CHANCE OF PCPN TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE
THAT SOME OF THE PCPN COULD START OFF AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER IN
THE WAA PATTERN...WOULD EXPECT A TRANSITION TO MORE RAIN LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH...INCREASING TO MID 40S NORTH
TO LOWER 50S SOUTH ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRYING AIRMASS
WILL THEN TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FEED OF WARM...MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF COAST WILL AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FIRST 12Z HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOOKING AT
THE 00Z KILN SOUNDING AND LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS...IT IS APPARENT
THAT MANY OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TOO MOIST AND TOO DEEP
WITH THE LAYER OF SATURATION. AS A RESULT...THEY CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE LOW CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE WHICH ARE
NOT OCCURRING. THUS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE TIMING FOR IFR CEILINGS
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THINK
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS WITH SOME
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z.
THEREAFTER...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. A LITTLE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NEAR THE FRONTAL
ZONE. BY THIS TIME...IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES SHOULD
BECOME MORE COMMON. THE FRONT WILL SLIP PAST THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
04Z AND 06Z AND THEN SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY
12Z MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON A NORTH WIND. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THEN BUT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
INTO MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/AR
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1228 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST STAYING NORTH OF THE
LAKE BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND IT WILL BE CLOUDY. NO SHOWERS ON RADAR BUT ALL THE MODELS
AGREE THAT EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK.
CONTINUED THE CHANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE HERE
AND THERE LATER TONIGHT. NOTHING ON RADAR YET BUT WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOME LIFT EVENTUALLY
THINK SOME PRECIP SHOULD START TO OCCUR. NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL BE
MEASURABLE VERSUS JUST SPRINKLES SO WILL BACK DOWN POPS TO KEEP
ALL AREAS IN CHANCE CATEGORY...EXCEPT NW WHERE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THRU DAYBREAK AS
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR SITUATION ON SUNDAY AS PROFILES SUGGESTING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME. TRIED TO SUGGEST WITH LOWER
MIDDAY POPS THAT THERE MIGHT BE A LULL...VS SUGGESTING AN ALL OUT
RAINY DAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT NEARS. MILD SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT NEARING
TOLEDO UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP LOOKS TO EXIT BEFORE
IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION.
DRYING MONDAY ALONG WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. NO SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT...BUT WILL KEEP THE LAKE CLOUDS WITH THE H8-LAKE TEMP
DIFFERENCE OF 13C OR SO AND MAYBE A FLURRY/20 POP FOR A SNOW
SHOWER IN THE SNOWBELT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND HAVE
LITTLE CHANCE AT MUCH OF TEMPERATURE RISE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY/TN VALLEY AND WILL BRING CLOUD COVER BACK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIP MIGHT BE A POSSIBILITY BUT HELD THAT OFF
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. WILL DO NO BETTER THAN THE 30S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AGAIN THERE WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE TO
LIFT SO ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE AT THIS POINT...MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. TIMING OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IN THE MODELS
LEADS US TO UNCERTAINTY WITH ITS TIMING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE BUT ALL OF
THEM TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE EAST TO NE MOVEMENT OF THE JET
ENERGY. WE DID CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LLWS REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN
A WITH 2KFT WINDS 23050KT ON AVERAGE. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH
MVFR TO NEAR IFR BY MORNING. HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS LIGHT RAIN MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL OHIO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
THINKING WHATEVER DEVELOPS WILL BE LIGHT AND WEST WITH EITHER
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL BE LOW MVFR...DROPPING
TO IFR TIME TO TIME IN DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY IN LIGHT SHOWERS AND COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A 40 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET MOVING OVER THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE WITH A CONTINUED 15 TO
20+ KNOT WIND ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD
ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MENTOR TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE
SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST IT APPEARS THAT WAVES WILL BUILD BACK TO AT LEAST 4
FEET. AT THIS POINT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE PULLED
BACK WESTWARD TOWARD VERMILION. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DECREASE
ENOUGH BY MONDAY EVENING TO ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO END.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1135 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST STAYING NORTH OF THE
LAKE BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD
KEEP SKIES CLOUDY. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE
LATER TONIGHT. NOTHING ON RADAR YET BUT WITH MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOME LIFT EVENTUALLY THINK SOME
PRECIP SHOULD START TO OCCUR. NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL BE MEASURABLE
VERSUS JUST SPRINKLES SO WILL BACK DOWN POPS TO KEEP ALL AREAS IN
CHANCE CATEGORY...EXCPET NW WHERE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THRU DAYBREAK AS
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR SITUATION ON SUNDAY AS PROFILES SUGGESTING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME. TRIED TO SUGGEST WITH LOWER
MIDDAY POPS THAT THERE MIGHT BE A LULL...VS SUGGESTING AN ALL OUT
RAINY DAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT NEARS. MILD SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT NEARING
TOLEDO UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP LOOKS TO EXIT BEFORE
IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION.
DRYING MONDAY ALONG WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. NO SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT...BUT WILL KEEP THE LAKE CLOUDS WITH THE H8-LAKE TEMP
DIFFERENCE OF 13C OR SO AND MAYBE A FLURRY/20 POP FOR A SNOW
SHOWER IN THE SNOWBELT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND HAVE
LITTLE CHANCE AT MUCH OF TEMPERATURE RISE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY/TN VALLEY AND WILL BRING CLOUD COVER BACK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIP MIGHT BE A POSSIBILITY BUT HELD THAT OFF
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. WILL DO NO BETTER THAN THE 30S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AGAIN THERE WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE TO
LIFT SO ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE AT THIS POINT...MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. TIMING OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IN THE MODELS
LEADS US TO UNCERTAINTY WITH ITS TIMING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE BUT ALL OF
THEM TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE EAST TO NE MOVEMENT OF THE JET
ENERGY. WE DID CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LLWS REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN
A WITH 2KFT WINDS 23050KT ON AVERAGE. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH
MVFR TO NEAR IFR BY MORNING. HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS LIGHT RAIN MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL OHIO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
THINKING WHATEVER DEVELOPS WILL BE LIGHT AND WEST WITH EITHER
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL BE LOW MVFR...DROPPING
TO IFR TIME TO TIME IN DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY IN LIGHT SHOWERS AND COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A 40 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET MOVING OVER THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE WITH A CONTINUED 15 TO
20+ KNOT WIND ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD
ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MENTOR TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE
SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST IT APPEARS THAT WAVES WILL BUILD BACK TO AT LEAST 4
FEET. AT THIS POINT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE PULLED
BACK WESTWARD TOWARD VERMILION. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DECREASE
ENOUGH BY MONDAY EVENING TO ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO END.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
319 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A THIN AND SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB IS KEEPING A
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECK OVER THE AREA. THE GFS IS QUICK TO
ERODE THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...WHILE THE NAM MAINTAINS IT THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST...AND WILL GO WITH THIS
SOLUTION. THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...WITH THE
COOLEST TEMPS IN THE PLATEAU (UPPER 50S) AND WARMEST IN THE
FOOTHILLS (MID 60S). AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE NW. MOISTURE REMAINS TOO SHALLOW FOR PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING NW IN CASE THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP IS SIMILAR TO THE SREF...WHICH IS A BIT FASTER
THAN SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS.
.LONG TERM...
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL BE THE STORY IN THE LONG TERM. THE WEAK NATURE OF
THESE SYSTEMS AND THE MODELS DISCREPANCY IN HANDLING THEM HAS LED TO
A SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO RAIN CHANCES.
FIRST AND MOST LIKELY BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH...SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
MONDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP COLLOCATED WITH AND
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MODELS BEGIN TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. SOME ARE HINTING AT SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT AND WASHING
IT OUT AND HAVING THE AREA QUICKLY RETURN TO S/SW WINDS BY TUESDAY.
WITH THESE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE VALLEY SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO
BRING LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR A HIGH ON
TUESDAY. HAVE NOT BIT OFF ON THIS SINCE I THINK MODELS MIGHT BE
OVERDOING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL RAIN TO PUT A BIT OF A DAMPER ON THE TEMPS FOR TUESDAY.
BUT WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TUESDAYS HIGHS ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTH.
WITH DECENT INFLUXES OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK THERE WILL BE A CHANCE RAIN THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN WHEREVER IT
DECIDES TO SET UP SHOP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE VICINITY AT THE END OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 47 63 46 / 0 10 30 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 44 60 44 / 0 10 30 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 60 47 59 44 / 0 10 50 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 41 58 41 / 0 10 30 60
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/ABM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
318 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ATMOSPHERE IN GENERAL ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA IS QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS
THAN 1/2 INCH. IN FACT...UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH THEY ARE LESS THAN
1/10 OF AN INCH. ACCOMPANYING THE DRIER AIR HAS BEEN A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN MN HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH TEENS TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN MONTANA WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED. THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND NOW SITUATED FROM GRB TO DVN AND KANSAS CITY. A
BAND OF LOW STRATUS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT. THAT STRATUS HAS BEEN A FUNCTION OF TRAPPED
MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL INVERSION...REPRESENTED VERY WELL
ON THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING WHERE THE 850MB TEMP WAS 13C AND 925MB
TEMP WAS -2C. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MORESO OVER MONTANA AND NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE THE INVERSION GOES AWAY...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS -20C
AND BELOW.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PROGGED
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY SITTING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY...EXPECTING TO SEE THE ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
MEANS A CONTINUOUS FALL OF TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
THE FALL SLOWED JUST SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FROM THE AID
OF THE SUN. REGARDING SUNSHINE...CLOUD EVOLUTION TODAY IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. THERES A FIGHT GOING ON BETWEEN THE SATURATION ALONG THE
COLD FRONTAL INVERSION AND SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. THIS IS EVIDENT
NICELY ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 IN MN WHERE THERE ARE BANDS OF
CLEARING AND STRATUS. TRIED THE BEST TO PLAY THIS IN THE FORECAST
BUT MORE UPDATES OF SKY COVER IS LIKELY NEEDED. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES COME OUT OF THE CLOUDS SINCE THE
CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE CONTAINED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE OMEGA PROGGED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO MENTION THE FLURRIES. CLEARING OF THE
SKIES LOOKS MORE LIKELY TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS OF THE MID/HIGH LEVEL VARIETY MAY GET STUCK ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE FALL...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR
READINGS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BY SUNSET...COLDEST IN
SOUTHEAST MN AND WARMEST IN FAR SOUTHWEST WI. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS HERE TOO...DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN RIVER VALLEY AREAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE. THESE LOWS SEEM REASONABLE BASED
ON WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE DAKOTAS NOW.
WIND CHILLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A HEADLINE ISSUE TODAY...THOUGH
10 TO 20 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD DROP THE WIND
CHILL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY SUNSET.
FOR TONIGHT...HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT 5 TO 15 MPH BREEZE COMBINED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS DO DROP WIND CHILLS TO THE ADVISORY
THRESHOLD OF -20F IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND CENTRAL WI. GIVEN
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BOTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...HAVE ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST TAYLOR COUNTY. ALSO CONSIDERED
DODGE...OLMSTED AND MOWER...BUT TO MAINTAIN A CLEANER HAZARD MAP
WITH MPXS COLDER CRITERIA OF -25 AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
MPX...HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING FOR THESE COUNTIES. IF IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK JUST AS COLD OR COLDER...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY FOR DODGE...OLMSTED AND MOWER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST...MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING IS BY FAR THE
COLDEST PART. DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...FAVORED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH...925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED AT A CHILLY -16C SOUTH TO -20C NORTH
AT 18Z MONDAY. THESE READINGS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO. THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
AREA CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA THEN SLIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT
00Z TUESDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER SUNSET. A DROP
OF 10 DEGREES BETWEEN 21Z MON AND 00Z TUE SUGGESTED BY THE 30.00Z
REGIONAL CANADIAN IS EASILY PLAUSIBLE. THE AMOUNT OF DROP IS
IMPORTANT AS THE LOW TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BY 12Z TUESDAY. THAT
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE A RETURN FLOW BREEZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB. ITS POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN RUN
INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY ISSUES AGAIN AS THE BREEZE COMBINES WITH
THE INITIALLY COLD READINGS.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS IS ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DRIVING
THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...CONTINUED
RETURN FLOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT WILL HELP PUSH 925MB TEMPS BACK UP TO
AS MUCH AS -4 TO -6C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP BRING
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS. A FEW SPOTS SUCH AS RIVER
VALLEYS MAY EVEN APPROACH FREEZING. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. MAYBE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FALLS NORTH OF I-94 WITH ITS
PASSAGE OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. SOME COLDER AIR
FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR STAYS
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO -5 TO -9C SO
READINGS ON WEDNESDAY MAY ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TUESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE QUASI-
ZONAL...FAVORING A FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR ACROSS THE U.S. AND THUS
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN FACT...BY THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD BE BACK UP
ABOVE NORMAL AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO OR ABOVE 0C. THERE IS ONE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODELS HAVE OSCILLATED BACK AND FORTH ON WHETHER THIS SHORTWAVE CAN
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. 30.00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DRIER
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN STILL DRIVES SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH. TEND TO
BELIEVE A DRIER SOLUTION WILL PAN OUT GIVEN A SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE...YIELDING
DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND IS NOW EAST
OF BOTH TAF SITES. THE DRIER AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH HAS
ALLOWED THE TEMPERATURE TO FALL CLOSE TO THE DEW POINT AND FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP. THE DRIER AIR WAS WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND ONCE IT SPREADS IN...THE FOG PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATES. HAVE
TRIED TO SHOW A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS FOR BOTH SITES UNTIL THE DRIER MOVES IN AND ALLOWS THE
VISIBILITY TO RETURN TO VFR WITH MVFR CEILINGS. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUES TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING. THE 30.03Z RAP REMAINS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN SPREADING THIS
CLEARING INTO BOTH TAF SITES EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WHILE THE 30.00Z NAM STILL WANTS TO HOLD ONTO THE LOW
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THROUGH ALL OF SUNDAY. FOR NOW...WILL STAY
WITH THE PREVIOUS TRENDS OF SCATTERING OUT THE CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. STILL EXPECT TO HAVE GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT TO ALLOW GUSTS TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1119 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
AT 3 PM...WARM AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MINNESOTA TO VALENTINE NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
50S AND 60S IN WESTERN IOWA. CLOSER TO HOME...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 30S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND IN THE 40S AND 50S SOUTH OF
THIS INTERSTATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE 925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ANOTHER 2 TO 4C INTO THE 7 TO
14C RANGE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 200 PERCENT TOO HIGH WITH
IT SNOW DEPTH...AND THIS IS CAUSING HAVOC WITH THEIR TEMPERATURES.
OTHER MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES TOO DUE TO THE SNOW PACK. MIXING
DOWN THE AIR MASS FROM 925 MB INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES COULD
POTENTIALLY WARM INTO THE MID50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S NEAR
INTERSTATE 90 AND 94. THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON ON HOW FAST THE
SNOW MELTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...PLAN ON PLAYING IT
CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TEMPERATURES.
FOR TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BY MIDNIGHT...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO MASON CITY IOWA...AND FROM
GREEN BAY TO KANSAS CITY BY 6 AM. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW /GENERALLY LESS THAN 50 TO 75 MB
UNDER 875 MB/ ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. THE NAM
SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OMEGA CO-LOCATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE FOR SOME SNOW FLURRIES. MEANWHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SAY THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS BEING A
NEW DEVELOPMENT AND ONLY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT MOST...SO DECIDED
TO JUST KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. AS FAR AS HOW COLD IT WILL BE BY
MORNING...THE GEM CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDEST WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND FROM 10
TO 20 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS LOW
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 20S. WITH SUCH DISCREPANCIES...JUST
STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM 15 TO 30.
ON SUNDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 20 ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND 5 TO 15 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL
VALUES FROM 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE AIR
MASS PARCHED...NOT EXPECTING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THIS FRONT.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES FROM -5 TO 10 AND NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE -20
TO -25 DEGREE RANGE. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS /-20 TO -25F/ WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
AREAS.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON HOW FAST THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. AS
A RESULT...THERE ARE QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOCATED ON THIS NIGHT. WITH SUCH
DIFFERENCES...STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS HAS LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM -5 T0 -10F. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CAUSE WIND
WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL OF 15 TO 25 BELOW. THIS MAY BE ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT AS COLD AS
THE PREVIOUS ONES. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND OMEGA BELOW 850 MB FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW
NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29. DUE TO THIS ADDED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE FORECAST.
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON
THE INTERACTION OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS LOOKS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING THE
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE THE GEM AND
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE PREVIOUS GFS WITH MORE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THESE 2 WAVES AND IT GENERATES LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND IS NOW EAST
OF BOTH TAF SITES. THE DRIER AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH HAS
ALLOWED THE TEMPERATURE TO FALL CLOSE TO THE DEW POINT AND FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP. THE DRIER AIR WAS WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND ONCE IT SPREADS IN...THE FOG PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATES. HAVE
TRIED TO SHOW A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS FOR BOTH SITES UNTIL THE DRIER MOVES IN AND ALLOWS THE
VISIBILITY TO RETURN TO VFR WITH MVFR CEILINGS. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUES TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING. THE 30.03Z RAP REMAINS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN SPREADING THIS
CLEARING INTO BOTH TAF SITES EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WHILE THE 30.00Z NAM STILL WANTS TO HOLD ONTO THE LOW
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THROUGH ALL OF SUNDAY. FOR NOW...WILL STAY
WITH THE PREVIOUS TRENDS OF SCATTERING OUT THE CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. STILL EXPECT TO HAVE GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT TO ALLOW GUSTS TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1046 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2014
WINDS HAVE REALLY STARTED TO COME DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS
SHOW THIS COLD FRONT NOW DRAPED FROM NORTHERN PLATTE COUNTY AND
POINTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. THE WIND THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH EVEN
MORE AS THIS WIND SHIFT OCCURS. COULD STAY A LITTLE BREEZY WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THIS FRONT APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO BE ABLE TO
GET OVER THE TERRAIN...BUT WINDS ALOFT AND LLVL CAG-CPR GRADIENTS
ARE UNSUPPORTIVE. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE.
LIGHT SNOW IS LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD SHORTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. LUSK IS FINALLY
REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AS OF THIS WRITING. EXPECT SNOW WILL SPREAD
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z SUN AS LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT STRENGTHENS IN THE RRQ OF
THE UPPER JET NOW OVER CENTRAL WY. HRRR APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH
THAT THINKING AS WELL. STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING CRAZY WITH
RESPECT TO ACCUMULATIONS. MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW OVER EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS INTERACTING WITH THE PINE
RIDGE RESULTING IN VERY LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...SO ADDED MENTION OF FOG THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2014
ONGOING FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE TIGHT PREFRONTAL
LLVL GRADIENTS AND RESULTANT STRONG SFC WINDS. LLVL KCAG-KCPR
GRADIENTS HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 60-70 METER RANGE
THRU AT LEAST 06Z. MIXING HAS BEEN UNINHIBITED TODAY TOO...AS
THE STANDING LEE CLOUD HAS SHIFTED SUFFICIENTLY EAST TO ALLOW FULL
INSOLATION. WINDS HAVE RESPONDED...REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA AT
MOST LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY PEAK GUSTS OF
60 TO 65 MPH HAVING BEEN OBSERVED ALONG LEEWARD SLOPES TO AS FAR
EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. AREAS AROUND ARLINGTON HAVE STRUGGLED
SOMEWHAT AS THE BEST AXIS OF SUBSIDENCE IS JUST EAST. SEE THESE
WINDS CONTINUING AT LEAST IN PART THRU A CHUNK OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BREAKS UP THE GRADIENT. SPEAKING
OF THE COLD FRONT...ITS LOOKING IMPRESSIVE ON 21Z SFC ANALYSIS
ALREADY SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ON THE DOORSTEP OF NEWCASTLE. TO
ILLUSTRATE THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS FELL FROM 55F TO 16F
AT GILLETTE OVER THE SPAN OF 2 HOURS WITH FROPA. MODELS ARE ALL
SIMILAR WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING MOVING IT INTO THE FAR NORTH EARLY
THIS EVENING AND THRU THE REST OF CWA THRU SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAYS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
FALLING TEMPS THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. SNOW CHANCES WILL LAG
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED MOVING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AREAS AROUND DOUGLAS WILL SEE SNOW
CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOCATIONS FROM RAWLINS TO LARAMIE TO
CHEYENNE HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PERHAPS 1-2 INCHES ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES AND PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH
FROM CHEYENNE TO KIMBALL. SNOWY RANGE/SIERRA MADRES WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT THOSE SHOULD ONLY FALL IN THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE FRONT RETREATS QUICKLY TO
THE EAST AND FLOW REMAINS ZONAL. AFTER A CLOUDY SUNDAY...EXPECT
CLOUDS TO DECREASE FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD ON
MONDAY THO...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY REMAINING IN THE 30S. LLVL
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT SHAPING UP FOR WIND PRONE AREAS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2014
TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS.
WEDNESDAY...TRANSITIONS TO A MORE MOIST UNSETTLED PATTERN AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO WEST SOUTHWEST...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT APPROACHING OUR COUNTIES AND WITH THE LOW
AND MID LEVELS MOISTENING. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...IT APPEARS
THAT SCATTERED TO LIKELY...MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS...WILL DEVELOP DUE TO
OROGRAPHICS ALONG AND WEST OF A LARAMIE TO DOUGLAS LINE...AND
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES OF SOUTHERN
CARBON COUNTY.
THURSDAY...DRIER DAY ON TAP AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WANES AND
WITH NO OBVIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT AFFECTING OUR
COUNTIES...THOUGH MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE RANGE OF SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY...DRY ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTION IS LOW AS THE 29/12Z GFS
INDICATES SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR COUNTIES WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM UTAH...WHILE THE 29/12Z ECMWF HAS A
WELL DEVELOPED RIDGE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL WYOMING. IN EITHER
CASE...MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS DRY. WILL BLEND
WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES FOR TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE
MODELS SHOW SOME AGREEMENT.
SATURDAY...MODELS START TO AGREE MORE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR COUNTIES. LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S AND 40S...NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS
AND LOCALIZED FOG AT KSNY/KBFF/KAIA/KCDR THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN PCPN. BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2014
STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND IMMEDIATE EASTERN PLAINS LOCATION THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT WILL BEEN IN THE TEENS. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL END TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY AND USHERING IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...CAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
545 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE CWA LATE
IN THE SHORT TERM BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE CWA ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
WARMING TREND. CLOUDS OVER NORTH AL AND NORTH GA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
INTO TN AND NC LATER THIS MORNING MAKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT BRINGING STRATUS TO MUCH OF NORTH AND WEST GEORGIA
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT.
17
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE MILD BUT RAIN RETURNS ON AND
OFF THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...WITH THE FOCUS ON NORTH GEORGIA. AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT...STARTING THE EXTENDED OFF WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA. SFC RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN
A WEDGE BUILDING INTO GEORGIA TUESDAY AND EXPECT LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH THIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS AND AND LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS WILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY. NEXT WAVE BRINGS THE RETURN OF RAIN TO NORTH
GEORGIA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS WAVE THOUGH AT BOTH 500MB AND THE SFC.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A SHORTWAVE IN THE 500MB FLOW AND BRINGS PRECIP
TO THE WHOLE CWA ON SATURDAY WHEREAS THE GFS 500MB FLOW IS MORE
FLAT AND KEEPS PRECIP MORE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. ALL MENTION OF PRECIP IS JUST SHOWERS AS
INSTABILITY IS LACKING.
WITH THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY HIGHS AND EVEN WENT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AT
SOME PLACES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA. OTHERWISE
TEMPS ARE A MODEL BLEND. CURRENT LONG TERM FORECAST KEEPS TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF MVFR/IFR CIGS HAS SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST GA JUST TO
THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF ATL. LATEST RUC INDICATING ATL WILL SEE
MVFR CIGS FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFT TO VFR BY
NOON. ANOTHER AREA OF IFR CIGS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST GA SHOULD
STAY CLEAR OF MCN THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 06Z MON. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
FORECAST.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH ON ALL REMAINING ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 66 44 67 45 / 0 0 10 10
ATLANTA 67 51 69 48 / 0 0 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 63 39 63 46 / 0 0 30 30
CARTERSVILLE 66 45 66 47 / 0 0 20 20
COLUMBUS 67 48 70 47 / 0 0 5 10
GAINESVILLE 65 46 65 46 / 0 0 10 20
MACON 68 43 69 46 / 0 0 5 5
ROME 66 44 65 47 / 0 0 20 30
PEACHTREE CITY 68 45 68 45 / 0 0 10 10
VIDALIA 70 48 73 51 / 0 0 5 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
600 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...
302 AM CST
THROUGH TONIGHT...
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS DISSIPATION OF CURRENT DENSE
FOG...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS/CLOUD COVER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF STRONG
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE AREAS
WHERE SNOW PACK MELTED SATURDAY ADDING MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS A BIT COOLER MEANING SMALLER TD
DEPRESSIONS THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER UNTIL WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEGINS USHERING IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR THIS
MORNING.
RELATIVELY NARROW RIBBON OF STRATUS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT NOW BUT AM
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STRATUS WITH VERY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR STRATUS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY. WHILE MODELS
WERE FAR OVERDONE WITH STRATUS SATURDAY...AM CONCERNED THAT MAY BE
LESS THE CASE TODAY GIVEN DIFFERENT SET-UP IN COLD AIR ADVECTION.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW AND NO DOUBT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO TWEAK/ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ENSURE HIGH TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE
CWA WILL BE ACHIEVED THIS MORNING EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTHEAST WHERE
EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED. FRONT LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH
DRY OVER MOST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER BY MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON MODELS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
CIRCULATION COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONT REACHING HIGHER PWAT AIR MASS.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT HAVE NUDGED UP POPS. WITH LOW DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE AM
EXPECTING LOWER CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...THOUGH MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY STREAM INTO THE AREA.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
302 AM CST
MONDAY ONWARD...
WE SHOULD FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS 1045MB+ HIGH TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
ZONAL NATURE OF FLOW SHOULD PREVENT A FULL SCALE INVASION OF ARCTIC
AIR AND LACK OF SNOW COVER SHOULD KEEP THE RELATIVELY POTENT SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR FROM GETTING TOO COLD.
ARCTIC HIGH SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY SETTING UP RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ALTERNATING BOUTS OF
WEAK WARM AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS
WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW AMPLITUDE. LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIP AROUND
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD BE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN GIVEN THE MODERATE
TEMPS. OVERALL AFTER MONDAY`S COLD SNAP LOOK FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE PRECIP TUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARND 10-14KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20KT LULL
IN GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 12-15Z.
* WINDS QUICKLY TURN WEST/NORTHWEST MIDDAY/AFTN...GUSTS DEVELOPING
TO 20-24KT.
* PATCHY IFR CIGS...AND MAY PERSIST THRU DAYBREAK. A FEW POCKETS
OF LIFR CIGS WEST OF ORD/MDW.
* PATCHY FOG OVERN...WITH VSBYS REDUCED TO 2-4SM AT TIMES. WINDS
SHUD KEEP FOG MOVING AND NOT REMAIN STATIONARY.
* PATCHY MVFR CIGS SHORTLY AFT DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
EARLY AFTN.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
PATCHY STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN...AND HAS SINCE PUSHED EAST. A NARROW CHANNEL OF
STRATUS WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
EASTERN IOWA STRETCHING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL WISC. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT VSBYS COULD BOUNCE BETWEEN 4-6SM BETWEEN 12-14Z
GIVEN THE PATCHY FOG THAT RESIDES WEST OF THE ORD/MDW CURRENTLY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRATUS WILL PUSH BACK OVER
AIRFIELDS AND REMAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. WINDS INTRODUCE YET ANOTHER
CHALLENGE AS OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 14KT EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
HELPED TO HOLD A FEW LOCATIONS UP WITH VSBYS. DENSE FOG CONTINUES
TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...BUT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS THIS AREA VSBY/CIGS WILL QUICKLY LIFT BACK
TO MVFR THEN VFR CONDS AROUND MIDDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY FLIP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST/NORTH...AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM 6-8KT
TO 12-14KT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING TO NEAR 20-24KT BY MIDDAY.
GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
THAT WILL HELP TO FURTHER LIFT CIGS TO VFR CONDS BY EARLY THIS
AFTN AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE A SCT DECK BY 22-23Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER WITH A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING OVERHEAD THIS WILL MAINTAIN
GUSTY WINDS THRU THE OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN VSBY FORECAST THRU 15Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/GUSTS DEVELOPING AFT
DAYBREAK.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS LIFTING TO VFR AFT 20Z.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST BY LATE DAY.
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
229 AM CST
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT A VERY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THE COLD FRONT WAS
APPROACHING THE LAKE. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE THIS MORNING...THEN
STEADILY WORK SOUTH AND CLEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE MUCH COLDER
AIR...AND GUSTY WINDS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THAT GUSTS
WOULD STAY JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR
FAVORABLE GIVEN THE STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR THAT A FEW GALES MAY
OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AROUND 20Z...SO
HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WAVES SHUD EASILY BUILD GIVEN
THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR...AND WITH THE LONG DURATION OF
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS...WAVES SHUD EASILY BUILD ALONG THE INDIANA
SHORELINE.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE
RISES ARE SO LARGE THAT GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR A LONGER
DURATION OVER THE LAKE. AS A RESULT WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT. THEN
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE...AND IS POISED TO DEPART THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WED. A PERIOD
OF GALES MAY AGAIN DEVELOP FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE. THEN ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALES ONCE AGAIN.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021 UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...2 PM SUNDAY TO 2
PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...2 PM SUNDAY TO 9
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
551 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
Strong cold/polar front was pushing se into southeast parts of
WI/IA and nearing the Quad Cities early this morning. Areas of
dense fog over snow pack over northern IL from I-80 north but no
snow cover or fog over central and southeast IL so far. HRRR model
shows some of this fog moving se across the IL river valley this
morning but coverage is limited and will leave out of forecast
today. Cold front to reach near Galesburg by 12Z/6 am, halfway
through CWA by 18Z/noon and approaching Lawrenceville around
00Z/6 pm today. Some patchy drizzle or very light rain showers to
occur this morning with frontal boundary, and light rain becomes
more likely in southeast IL later this afternoon and evening.
Highs today to be reached early this morning nw of the IL river in
the upper 30s and lower 40s, while southeast IL has temps climb
into the low to mid 60s by midday with breezy sw winds ahead of
front before temps fall behind the cold front during the afternoon.
Light rain chances linger se of I-70 overnight and surface temps
to fall below freezing late tonight and give chance of light
freezing rain. QPF amounts are quite light by that time in
southeast IL and brunt of qpf shifts south of highway 50 Monday
morning where small chances of light freezing rain occurs. Lows
tonight range from the mid teens nw of the IL river, to around 30F
in far southeast IL near the Wabash river. Much colder Monday with
highs in the mid to upper 20s in central IL and 30-35F in
southeast IL along with blustery north winds. This due to arctic
high pressure over Alberta and MT that strengthens to 1045 mb over
the upper MS river valley Monday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
00Z extended models are mostly showing a nearly zonal upper level
flow over IL during mid and late week. Strong Canadian high
pressure shifts into southeast Canada Tue night while another high
pressure system settles north of the Great Lakes by Thu. Meanwhile
a frontal boundary stays south of IL over the TN valley into north
Texas and keeps more active wx pattern over southern half of IL
from Wed night through Fri. Models have trended further south with
qpf fields and have trended forecast with lower pops over northern
counties during this time frame. Continue to mention a mix of
precipitation including light freezing rain over parts of central
IL (850 mb temps generally stay at or above 0C while surface temps
near or below freezing), with better chance of rain and higher qpf
in southeast IL south of I-70. Weak surface low pressure ejects ne
from southern plains into KY Fri night and pulls light
precipitation se of IL by overnight Fri night with central IL then
generally dry next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
IFR clouds moving in from the northwest in connection with the
cold front moving into the area. Satellite trend shows IFR cigs
not very wide, but believe additional clouds will likely develop
in the CAA behind existing clouds, so will keep IFR cigs longer in
the TAFs today. As the front interacts with the surface moisture,
light rain or showers will be possible so have VCSH at all sites
except PIA. As the front pushes southeast during the day,
showers/light rain will end late afternoon/early evening. Cig
heights will also rise during the early evening at all sites, then
things will begin to clear late tonight. Winds will become
northwest and gusty when the front passes this morning. Believe
the gusts will continue into the night so will keep that going in
all TAFs. Low level wind shear occurring around 1.7kft based on
new UA sounding, but is gone in couple of hours, when the
inversion breaks.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
800 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
UPDATE SENT TO REFLECT FASTER FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN
THE RUC WHICH IS ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL TO ACCURATELY REFLECT
TEMPERATURES/WINDS/DEWPOINTS/STRATUS COVERAGE AND FOG IS TOO
SLOW...ESPECIALLY AROUND FLAGLER WHERE TEMPS MUCH COLDER COMPARED
TO MODEL FORECAST. OTHERWISE ITS PRETTY GOOD...HOPEFULLY THE 15Z
RUN WILL BE BETTER.
GENERAL IDEA IS FOR NARROW CORRIDOR OF FOG ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST/SOUTHWEST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING. REST OF THE AREA THAT ISNT UNDER A LOW
BLANKET OF STRATUS WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO CONTEND
WITH. TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
FUTURE UPDATES LIKELY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
UPDATE TO FORECAST SENT TO ADJUST TEMPS/WINDS FROM LATEST OBS DUE
TO FRONT PUSHING THRU THE AREA. TEMPS RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO
LOW 20S UNDER CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME BREAKS OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEBRASKA THAT SHOULD WORK INTO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATER TODAY. FOG IN OBS...SO HAVE KEPT IN MENTION OF FOR
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
A COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH THROUGH THE TRI STATE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT...A ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL LAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE DOES SET UP TO OUR EAST
BY TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WARMUP TO ENSUE...BUT NOT AS WARM
AS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...A LARGE AREA
OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS DOES FOLLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WITHIN THE
LAYER OF CLOUDS...OBS ACROSS NEBRASKA ARE SHOWING FOG AND EVEN SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES...SO WILL HAVE MENTION IN FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE
NW/SE ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY PUT FOCUS OF BULK
OF CLOUD SHIELD...OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN ZONES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AND WILL SETTLE TO OUR EAST GOING INTO MONDAY.
BY TONIGHT AS RIDGE FORCING SETS UP ESE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...FLOW
INTO EASTERN COLORADO/NW KANSAS/SW NEBRASKA DOES INTERACT WITH
REMAINING FRONTAL MOISTURE. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THESE AREAS WILL
PRODUCE A BIT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL GOING INTO THE FIRST FEW HRS MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ENDING. ANY SNOWFALL TOTALS RECEIVED WILL BE LIGHT ON
THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR LESS AND BULK WILL OCCUR OVER THE
COUNTIES OF YUMA CO...DUNDY NEBRASKA AND CHEYENNE KS. LINGERING
CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE RIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS AND WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER MAIN WEATHER FACTORS FROM TODAY ON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FROPA OCCURRING THIS MORNING...THE CWA
WILL SEE EARLY HIGHS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL BE
A CHANGE FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ON THE TUNE OF A 35 TO 40 DEGREE
DOWNWARD SHIFT FOR HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
GOING INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH RIDGE SETTING UP TO OUR
EAST...AREA WILL SEE A REBOUND IN TEMPS ONLY TO THE 30S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS MONDAY...BUT INCREASE GOING INTO TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AND MORE CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL HIGHS GOING INTO TUESDAY
WILL BOUNCE BACK SHARPLY IN THE 50-60 DEGREE RANGE WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S. BOTH OF THESE ARE ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED FOR
THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON MONDAY WITH SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED TODAY WITH 10 TO
15 MPH TONIGHT. THESE SPEEDS TONIGHT COMBINED WITH EXPECTED LOWS
WILL GIVE THE TRI STATE REGION WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
OVERALL...UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK. BY FRIDAY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST...DISCONTINUING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...SHIFTING IT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TRI STATE AREA DISRUPTING THE WARMING TREND. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA...BUT ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE
TYPE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WITH THE
EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SURFACE MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES...WILL BE ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN
PART. HOWEVER STILL NEED A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS TO BETTER
PINPOINT THE PRECIPITATION DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THRU 16Z-17Z FOR BOTH TAF SITES. 3-6SM
IN FOG WITH CEILINGS OVC006-015. AFT 17Z...VFR WITH SCT025-050
BKN150. WINDS NNE 15-25KTS DROPPING TO AROUND 10KTS BY 03Z MONDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
513 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
AS OF 3AM THE COLD FRONT HAS PLOWED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
KANSAS PASSING THROUGH HUTCHINSON SHORTLY AFTER THE 3AM HOUR.
TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY WINDS
HAVE STEADILY HAD GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED MILD...ONLY QUICKLY TO CHANGE AS THE
FRONT PASSES.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THE
COLD FRONT IS AHEAD OF GUIDANCE AND EVEN AHEAD OF PROJECTIONS JUST
A FEW HOURS AGO. THE FRONT IS REALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE. FEEL THE HRRR HAS ONE OF THE BEST GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS AND
HAVE USED THAT AS A FIRST GUESS...MODIFYING SLIGHTLY FOR HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE AND HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. MOST OF THE STATE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
30S. THE FRONT WILL SLOW SLIGHTLY AS THE WINDS COMPONENT BECOMES
LESS PERPENDICULAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS CAUSING THAT AREA TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR LONGER TODAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
MONDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE BUT STAY SLIGHTLY BREEZY DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING.
BY TUESDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
WITH 40S EXPECTED.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED IS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WHICH
WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST
AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL STAY IN THE
40S AND 50S WHILE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
OVERNIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED
SNOW AS A POTENTIAL WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND RAIN
DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY.
WHILE OUT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF KANSAS COULD BE NEXT SUNDAY. WILL WANT
TO WATCH LATER FORECASTS TO SEE HOW THIS DISTURBANCE EVOLVES WITH
LATER GUIDANCE.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM KANSAS CITY TO WICHITA...TO SOUTH
OF LIBERAL AT 11 UTC...SHOULD PUSH SOUTHWARD OUT OF FAR SOUTHEAST
KS BY 18 UTC TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AT 15-25 KNOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SWATH OF MVFR CEILINGS LAGS THE FRONT BY ABOUT
2 HOURS...THAT WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE
PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP AROUND 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AS A POLAR SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH-LEVEL
CIRRUS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 39 16 31 16 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 35 12 30 15 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 36 14 29 15 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 41 18 32 17 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 46 18 32 17 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELL 30 12 29 14 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 32 13 30 15 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 32 15 31 15 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 33 13 30 15 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 55 20 33 23 / 10 10 10 0
CHANUTE 49 18 32 19 / 10 10 0 0
IOLA 47 18 31 19 / 10 10 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 54 18 33 21 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
642 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH WEST MICHIGAN TODAY AND SEND
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
20S. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WILL WARM INTO THE 30S BY MID WEEK AND
REMAIN THERE FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS MAINLY DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS...THOUGH PCPN CHANCES
ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.
SFC OBS SHOW A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR MQT SWWD TO EASTERN
IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATER
THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW...LESS THAN 4K FT AND SO PCPN WILL
BE LIMITED TO A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...IF AT ALL.
ANY PCPN THAT DEVELOPS WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
IT/S WORTH NOTING THE LATEST HRRR DOESN/T SHOW ANY PCPN OVER THE CWA
TODAY.
COLD AIR POURS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
20S. ORDINARILY THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS
H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -13C. HOWEVER...WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS ONLY
REACHING 3K FT...THE DGZ...WHAT THERE IS OF IT...REMAINS IN THE TOP
OF THE CLOUD WITH NOT MUCH LIFT WITHIN IT. THUS WE DON/T EXPECT
ACCUMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SETTLES OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WX.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. OVERALL IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT.
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SMALL RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
RIDGING ARRIVES FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
AIDED...AIDED BY MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW...SUPPORTING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE ARRIVES THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAKENING. WHILE MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE DGZ...BUT
POTENTIALLY VERY DRY BELOW...IT APPEARS WE WILL SEE MAINLY VIRGA
FROM THIS WAVE. I ENDED UP HOLDING ONTO A VERY LOW POP FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FORE THIS EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES IN
SOUTHWEST MI THIS MORNING IMPACTING AVIATORS. THIS WILL HAPPEN IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACT THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL ACTUALLY IMPROVE AS THE COLDER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY IN THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
ICING COULD BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. WAVES WILL REMAIN AOA
3 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
RIVER LEVELS WILL RECEDE DURING THE NEXT WEEK AS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF APPRECIABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
220 AM PST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ALONG WITH MILD CONDITIONS. A STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND VERY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON AREA ROADWAYS. LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TODAY MARKS THE LAST DAY OF THE YEAR IN LAS VEGAS IN WHICH THE
NORMAL HIGH IS 60 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AS OF 2 AM WAS AT 62
DEGREES AT MCCARRAN AIRPORT AS ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES
TO STREAM INTO THE AREA COURTESY OF THE JET STREAM SITTING SMACK
OVERHEAD AND A SHORTWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED AT THE
PRESENT ABOUT 200 MILES OR SO OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THIS CREATES A
BIG CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AS MANY SITES ESPECIALLY ACROSS CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES HAD
FAILED TO REALLY DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND SOME WERE ALREADY EXCEEDING
FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH OUR CONTINUITY AS WELL AS WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE WRF AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE
INVERSION BREAKING BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAS VEGAS, WHICH HAPPENED
YESTERDAY AND RESULTED IN TEMPS GETTING MUCH WARMER THAN EXPECTED.
THE ONLY DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THAT FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS AND WATER
VAPOR TRENDS SHOW GLOBS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY PERSISTING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HEATING AND YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPS DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY ONCE
THE CIRRUS THICKENED UP ENOUGH. OVERALL, THE BEST THOUGHT WAS TO
NUDGE UP TEMPS TODAY AND GO WITH VALUES CLOSER TO THE ECMWF BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND WARMER WRF SOUNDING. WITH THE INVERSION
BREAKING AND WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOWN IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS A 70 KT JET AT 250 MB STILL OVERHEAD, GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME HIGHER RIDGETOPS AND FAVORED SPOTS DOWNWIND OF
CANYONS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH.
THE DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE CREST OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA. THE WRF AND HRRR MODELS STILL SUPPORT THIS. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 7000 FEET, HOWEVER, ANY ATTEMPT AT
ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE 10000 FEET GIVEN THE WARM GROUND
TEMPS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HIGH CLOUDS MAY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
FOR TONIGHT, SO READINGS SHOULD BE COOLER.
RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE DAY SHOULD START OFF SUNNIER, THE NEXT JET STREAK IS
SHOWN TO HEAD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER
BATCH OF THICK CIRRUS IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD BASES
LOWERING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
CALIFORNIA. HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE LOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY
AS THE INVERSION LOOKS TO HOLD AND MIXING IS WEAK IN THE VALLEYS.
HOWEVER, SEEING HOW THINGS HAVE GONE SATURDAY AND LIKELY WILL TODAY,
I DID BUMP THEM UP A HAIR.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN SOLID AGREEMENT WITH STORM SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RAISED PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA AND ALSO TWEAKED WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT STRATIFORM PRECIP
IN THE MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE LOW DURING THE DAY AND
EVENING...CHANGING TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN PLUME BREAKS UP
AND HEIGHT FALLS MOVE IN. STILL EXPECTING UNSEASONABLY HIGH SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS STORM SO ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD
SEE THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA DRYING OUT WITH SMALL POPS
LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN CWA NEARER THE JET IN DIRTY ZONAL FLOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS PACIFIC AIR STREAMS OVER
THE CWA. THE NEXT STORM LOOKS POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN THAT TIME
FRAME SO WILL HOLD OFF TRYING TO PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD TREND TOWARD 5-8 KTS BY 16Z
TODAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KTS AROUND 20Z TODAY
WHERE THEY SHOULD HOLD AT THROUGH TONIGHT. GENERALLY BKN CLOUDS AOA
20K FEET ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS
AT 6-12 KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER HIGHER
RIDGETOPS AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FAVORED CANYONS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
MAINLY AOA 20K FEET THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW BASES AS LOW AS 15K
FEET IN AND AROUND KBIH.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...MORGAN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
932 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM...WINDY AND GENERALLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DESPITE
CLOUDY SKIES. IT`LL BE WARM AND WINDY TONIGHT AS WELL AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN
MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG WITH SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 932 AM EST SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE WITH CURRENT FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S TO MID
40S, WITH WARMEST AREA BEING IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN THE WARMER AIR.
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER TOWARDS
MID-DAY, PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. UPSTREAM RADAR
SHOWS BASICALLY NOTHING...AND WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WE LACK ANY REAL LARGE-SCALE LIFT TO SUPPORT
PRECIP DEVELOPING SO EXPECT TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING IN THE 40S TO
LOCALLY NEAR 50 IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JAMES BAY LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG S-SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH TEMPS NOT REALLY FALLING
MUCH FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE FRONT IS RATHER MOISTURE-STARVED
WITH JUST ABOUT ZERO ECHOES NOTED ON UPSTREAM RADAR ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. A LITTLE INTERACTION WITH THE LAKES MAY BE ENOUGH TO
ENHANCE MOISTURE AND SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
OF ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS EXPECTED GOING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FELT
LIKE THE BEST OPTION. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING WILL BE KEY IN
OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WHICH REALLY SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD...BUT WESTWARD TEMPS
WILL BE FALLING INTO THE 30S BY DAWN.
FOR MONDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY GENERALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THE
MORNING. LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF SUGGEST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY
BLOCKED AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW SO PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW. BASED ON CURRENT THINKING FOR FROPA TIMING HIGHS WILL BE
OCCURRING EARLY IN THE MORNING RIGHT AROUND 12Z...THEN SHARPLY
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BY THE AFTERNOON TEMPS AREA-WIDE WILL BE
BACK IN THE 30S...WITH 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND TEENS ON
THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 12Z
TUESDAY. STILL COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS AND INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT...BUT
WOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND GENERALLY DISSIPATING. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL USHER IN A SEASONABLY COLD
AIR MASS WITH LOW TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. SUNDAY...DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR TUESDAY UNDER THE HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING BELOW
NORMAL WARMING ONLY INTO 20S...AND MAYBE TEENS IN THE COLDER
HOLLOWS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 243 AM EST SUNDAY...A FAST MID-UPR LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...BUT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE NOT FORESEEN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS EWD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WSWLY FLOW AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFT NEWD ACROSS OUR
REGION...BRINGING GUSTY S-SW WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURES WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO CHANGE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO
PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE UPR 20S/LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S REGION-WIDE ON WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A WNWLY WIND SHIFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS.
TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY DECEMBER AVERAGES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S. MODELS DIFFER ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY...AS ECMWF HAS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGING POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW. THE 00Z GFS IS MORE ILL-
DEFINED WITH THIS FEATURE. CARRIED JUST 20-30 POPS FOR NOW...AS
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES HAVE BEEN NOTED FOR SEVERAL CYCLES FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 30S ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING FROM SW-NE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IS BRINGING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS (3.5-5KFT)...BUT LOCALLY MVFR NEAR THE
MTNS INCLUDING AT SLK AND MPV TAF SITES (2-3 KFT). THE RAP MODEL
HINTS AT A FEW BREAKS LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...THE MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS WRN NY/PA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY 1-2 KFT...AND WITH A CHANCE OF SOME IFR
CEILINGS LATE...ESPECIALLY AT SLK. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG
INVERSION LAYER LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE
STRATUS LAYER WITHIN THIS LAYER OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY DRY WITH A
CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION
IN THE TAFS YET GIVEN SCATTERED NATURE AND UNCERTAIN TIMING OF ANY
-SHRA. COULD SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AT KSLK TOWARD 12Z
MONDAY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES INTO NRN NY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS MORNING...GENERALLY SOUTH AT MODERATE SPEEDS. CHANNELING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IS LEADING TO SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20KTS AND
GUSTS TO 25-30KTS AT BTV THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN GENERALLY
S-SSW 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW MVFR SNOW SHOWERS OTHER THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEXT WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SOUTH- SW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE...WITH WIND GUSTS
LIKELY EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT BTV 06-15Z WEDNESDAY. DRIER/VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
LEVEL JET PASSING OVERHEAD...BUT WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
THE DAY...FALLING TO BELOW 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXTREMELY
CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WITH WAVES OF 3 TO 5
FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATER
BETWEEN COLCHESTER POINT AND VALCOUR ISLAND.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...NASH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
707 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM...WINDY AND GENERALLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DESPITE
CLOUDY SKIES. IT`LL BE WARM AND WINDY TONIGHT AS WELL AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN
MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG WITH SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 620 AM EST SUNDAY...A STRONG WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE TIP OF JAMES BAY CONTINUES TO
SHIFT INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE TEMPS
ALREADY REACHING INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
50S BACK TOWARDS BUFFALO. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER LATER TOWARDS MID-DAY THE BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. UPSTREAM
RADAR SHOWS BASICALLY NOTHING...AND WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WE LACK ANY REAL LARGE-SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT PRECIP DEVELOPING SO EXPECT TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING IN THE 40S TO
LOCALLY NEAR 50 IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JAMES BAY LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG S-SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH TEMPS NOT REALLY FALLING
MUCH FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE FRONT IS RATHER MOISTURE-STARVED
WITH JUST ABOUT ZERO ECHOES NOTED ON UPSTREAM RADAR ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. A LITTLE INTERACTION WITH THE LAKES MAY BE ENOUGH TO
ENHANCE MOISTURE AND SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
OF ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS EXPECTED GOING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FELT
LIKE THE BEST OPTION. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING WILL BE KEY IN
OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WHICH REALLY SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD...BUT WESTWARD TEMPS
WILL BE FALLING INTO THE 30S BY DAWN.
FOR MONDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY GENERALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THE
MORNING. LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF SUGGEST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY
BLOCKED AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW SO PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW. BASED ON CURRENT THINKING FOR FROPA TIMING HIGHS WILL BE
OCCURRING EARLY IN THE MORNING RIGHT AROUND 12Z...THEN SHARPLY
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BY THE AFTERNOON TEMPS AREA-WIDE WILL BE
BACK IN THE 30S...WITH 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND TEENS ON
THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 12Z
TUESDAY. STILL COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS AND INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT...BUT
WOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND GENERALLY DISSIPATING. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL USHER IN A SEASONABLY COLD
AIR MASS WITH LOW TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. SUNDAY...DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR TUESDAY UNDER THE HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING BELOW
NORMAL WARMING ONLY INTO 20S...AND MAYBE TEENS IN THE COLDER
HOLLOWS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 243 AM EST SUNDAY...A FAST MID-UPR LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...BUT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE NOT FORESEEN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS EWD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WSWLY FLOW AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFT NEWD ACROSS OUR
REGION...BRINGING GUSTY S-SW WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURES WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO CHANGE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO
PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE UPR 20S/LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S REGIONWIDE ON WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A WNWLY WIND SHIFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS.
TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY DECEMBER AVERAGES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S. MODELS DIFFER ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY...AS ECMWF HAS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGING POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW. THE 00Z GFS IS MORE ILL-
DEFINED WITH THIS FEATURE. CARRIED JUST 20-30 POPS FOR NOW...AS
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES HAVE BEEN NOTED FOR SEVERAL CYCLES FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 30S ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING FROM SW-NE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IS BRINGING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS (3.5-5KFT)...BUT LOCALLY MVFR NEAR THE
MTNS INCLUDING AT SLK AND MPV TAF SITES (2-3 KFT). THE RAP MODEL
HINTS AT A FEW BREAKS LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...THE MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS WRN NY/PA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY 1-2 KFT...AND WITH A CHANCE OF SOME IFR
CEILINGS LATE...ESPECIALLY AT SLK. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG
INVERSION LAYER LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE
STRATUS LAYER WITHIN THIS LAYER OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY DRY WITH A
CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION
IN THE TAFS YET GIVEN SCATTERED NATURE AND UNCERTAIN TIMING OF ANY
-SHRA. COULD SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AT KSLK TOWARD 12Z
MONDAY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES INTO NRN NY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS MORNING...GENERALLY SOUTH AT MODERATE SPEEDS. CHANNELING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IS LEADING TO SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20KTS AND
GUSTS TO 25-30KTS AT BTV THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN GENERALLY
S-SSW 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW MVFR SNOW SHOWERS OTHER THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEXT WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SOUTH- SW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE...WITH WIND GUSTS
LIKELY EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT BTV 06-15Z WEDNESDAY. DRIER/VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
LEVEL JET PASSING OVERHEAD...BUT WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
THE DAY...FALLING TO BELOW 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXTREMELY
CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WITH WAVES OF 3 TO 5
FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATER
BETWEEN COLCHESTER POINT AND VALCOUR ISLAND.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...NASH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
515 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ATMOSPHERE IN GENERAL ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA IS QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS
THAN 1/2 INCH. IN FACT...UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH THEY ARE LESS THAN
1/10 OF AN INCH. ACCOMPANYING THE DRIER AIR HAS BEEN A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN MN HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH TEENS TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN MONTANA WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED. THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND NOW SITUATED FROM GRB TO DVN AND KANSAS CITY. A
BAND OF LOW STRATUS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT. THAT STRATUS HAS BEEN A FUNCTION OF TRAPPED
MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL INVERSION...REPRESENTED VERY WELL
ON THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING WHERE THE 850MB TEMP WAS 13C AND 925MB
TEMP WAS -2C. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MORESO OVER MONTANA AND NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE THE INVERSION GOES AWAY...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS -20C
AND BELOW.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PROGGED
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY SITTING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY...EXPECTING TO SEE THE ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
MEANS A CONTINUOUS FALL OF TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
THE FALL SLOWED JUST SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FROM THE AID
OF THE SUN. REGARDING SUNSHINE...CLOUD EVOLUTION TODAY IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. THERES A FIGHT GOING ON BETWEEN THE SATURATION ALONG THE
COLD FRONTAL INVERSION AND SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. THIS IS EVIDENT
NICELY ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 IN MN WHERE THERE ARE BANDS OF
CLEARING AND STRATUS. TRIED THE BEST TO PLAY THIS IN THE FORECAST
BUT MORE UPDATES OF SKY COVER IS LIKELY NEEDED. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES COME OUT OF THE CLOUDS SINCE THE
CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE CONTAINED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE OMEGA PROGGED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO MENTION THE FLURRIES. CLEARING OF THE
SKIES LOOKS MORE LIKELY TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS OF THE MID/HIGH LEVEL VARIETY MAY GET STUCK ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE FALL...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR
READINGS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BY SUNSET...COLDEST IN
SOUTHEAST MN AND WARMEST IN FAR SOUTHWEST WI. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS HERE TOO...DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN RIVER VALLEY AREAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE. THESE LOWS SEEM REASONABLE BASED
ON WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE DAKOTAS NOW.
WIND CHILLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A HEADLINE ISSUE TODAY...THOUGH
10 TO 20 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD DROP THE WIND
CHILL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY SUNSET.
FOR TONIGHT...HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT 5 TO 15 MPH BREEZE COMBINED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS DO DROP WIND CHILLS TO THE ADVISORY
THRESHOLD OF -20F IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND CENTRAL WI. GIVEN
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BOTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...HAVE ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST TAYLOR COUNTY. ALSO CONSIDERED
DODGE...OLMSTED AND MOWER...BUT TO MAINTAIN A CLEANER HAZARD MAP
WITH MPXS COLDER CRITERIA OF -25 AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
MPX...HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING FOR THESE COUNTIES. IF IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK JUST AS COLD OR COLDER...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY FOR DODGE...OLMSTED AND MOWER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST...MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING IS BY FAR THE
COLDEST PART. DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...FAVORED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH...925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED AT A CHILLY -16C SOUTH TO -20C NORTH
AT 18Z MONDAY. THESE READINGS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO. THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
AREA CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA THEN SLIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT
00Z TUESDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER SUNSET. A DROP
OF 10 DEGREES BETWEEN 21Z MON AND 00Z TUE SUGGESTED BY THE 30.00Z
REGIONAL CANADIAN IS EASILY PLAUSIBLE. THE AMOUNT OF DROP IS
IMPORTANT AS THE LOW TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BY 12Z TUESDAY. THAT
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE A RETURN FLOW BREEZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB. ITS POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN RUN
INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY ISSUES AGAIN AS THE BREEZE COMBINES WITH
THE INITIALLY COLD READINGS.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS IS ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DRIVING
THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...CONTINUED
RETURN FLOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT WILL HELP PUSH 925MB TEMPS BACK UP TO
AS MUCH AS -4 TO -6C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP BRING
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS. A FEW SPOTS SUCH AS RIVER
VALLEYS MAY EVEN APPROACH FREEZING. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. MAYBE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FALLS NORTH OF I-94 WITH ITS
PASSAGE OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. SOME COLDER AIR
FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR STAYS
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO -5 TO -9C SO
READINGS ON WEDNESDAY MAY ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TUESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE QUASI-
ZONAL...FAVORING A FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR ACROSS THE U.S. AND THUS
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN FACT...BY THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD BE BACK UP
ABOVE NORMAL AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO OR ABOVE 0C. THERE IS ONE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODELS HAVE OSCILLATED BACK AND FORTH ON WHETHER THIS SHORTWAVE CAN
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. 30.00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DRIER
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN STILL DRIVES SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH. TEND TO
BELIEVE A DRIER SOLUTION WILL PAN OUT GIVEN A SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE...YIELDING
DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
SUBSIDENCE IN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION HAS ALREADY
CLEARED THE THE POST-FRONTAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS OUT OF THE KRST
AREA. DISTANCE SPEED TOOL HAS THE MVFR CLOUDS/VSBYS MOVING OUT OF
THE KLSE AREA AROUND 14Z. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN THEN LOOK TO RESULT IN FEW/SCT MVFR CLOUDS THRU THE
DAY WITH SCT-BKN 10K-15K FT CLOUDS ABOVE THAT. NORTHWEST WIND 12-
15KT G20-24KTS TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...THEN IN THE 10-13KT
RANGE TONIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1156 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...
302 AM CST
THROUGH TONIGHT...
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS DISSIPATION OF CURRENT DENSE
FOG...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS/CLOUD COVER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF STRONG
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE AREAS
WHERE SNOW PACK MELTED SATURDAY ADDING MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS A BIT COOLER MEANING SMALLER TD
DEPRESSIONS THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER UNTIL WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEGINS USHERING IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR THIS
MORNING.
RELATIVELY NARROW RIBBON OF STRATUS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT NOW BUT AM
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STRATUS WITH VERY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR STRATUS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY. WHILE MODELS
WERE FAR OVERDONE WITH STRATUS SATURDAY...AM CONCERNED THAT MAY BE
LESS THE CASE TODAY GIVEN DIFFERENT SET-UP IN COLD AIR ADVECTION.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW AND NO DOUBT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO TWEAK/ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ENSURE HIGH TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE
CWA WILL BE ACHIEVED THIS MORNING EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTHEAST WHERE
EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED. FRONT LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH
DRY OVER MOST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER BY MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON MODELS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
CIRCULATION COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONT REACHING HIGHER PWAT AIR MASS.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT HAVE NUDGED UP POPS. WITH LOW DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE AM
EXPECTING LOWER CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...THOUGH MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY STREAM INTO THE AREA.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
302 AM CST
MONDAY ONWARD...
WE SHOULD FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS 1045MB+ HIGH TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
ZONAL NATURE OF FLOW SHOULD PREVENT A FULL SCALE INVASION OF ARCTIC
AIR AND LACK OF SNOW COVER SHOULD KEEP THE RELATIVELY POTENT SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR FROM GETTING TOO COLD.
ARCTIC HIGH SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY SETTING UP RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ALTERNATING BOUTS OF
WEAK WARM AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS
WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW AMPLITUDE. LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIP AROUND
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD BE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN GIVEN THE MODERATE
TEMPS. OVERALL AFTER MONDAY`S COLD SNAP LOOK FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE PRECIP TUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* CIGS LOWERING TO IFR AT ORD AND EVENTUALLY AT MDW TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON. LIFTING TO MVFR TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AND SCATTERING
SOME TIME MID/LATE EVENING.
* MVFR VSBY AT ORD AND ARRIVING MDW IN A FEW HOURS...THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
* WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE VERY SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS KEEPING CIG/VSBY FORECAST A CHALLENGE. IFR AND EVEN
SOME LIFR IS SPREAD FROM VYS TO JUST NW OF ORD AND POINTS NORTH AT
1730Z AND MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHEAST...THOUGH LOW END
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF IT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA
THAT IFR WILL WORK INTO ORD/MDW/GYY BUT FURTHER SLOW THE ARRIVAL.
MVFR VSBY SHOULD ALSO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH THE ADVANCE OF
COLD AIR BEING SLOW THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING IFR VSBY DEVELOP WHERE
IT HAS NOT ALREADY IS DIMINISHING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN LOWER END MVFR BEFORE CLEARING AT SOME
POINT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WHERE
THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY AND EVENTUALLY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT AND
PROBABLY 25 AT GYY GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE.
GUSTS MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE A FEW KNOTS TOWARD MID EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL IN.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME
MVFR LEVEL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL TURN NORTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY EVENING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS LOWERING TO IFR...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AT MDW. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFTING TO MVFR AND
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SCATTERING THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VSBY DEVELOPING AT MDW. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT AT ORD/MDW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST BY LATE DAY.
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
229 AM CST
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT A VERY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THE COLD FRONT WAS
APPROACHING THE LAKE. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE THIS MORNING...THEN
STEADILY WORK SOUTH AND CLEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE MUCH COLDER
AIR...AND GUSTY WINDS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THAT GUSTS
WOULD STAY JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR
FAVORABLE GIVEN THE STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR THAT A FEW GALES MAY
OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AROUND 20Z...SO
HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WAVES SHUD EASILY BUILD GIVEN
THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR...AND WITH THE LONG DURATION OF
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS...WAVES SHUD EASILY BUILD ALONG THE INDIANA
SHORELINE.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE
RISES ARE SO LARGE THAT GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR A LONGER
DURATION OVER THE LAKE. AS A RESULT WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT. THEN
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE...AND IS POISED TO DEPART THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WED. A PERIOD
OF GALES MAY AGAIN DEVELOP FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE. THEN ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALES ONCE AGAIN.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 2 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1123 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
Sharp cold front was located just east of the Illinois River at
10 am. Temperatures down to 33 at Galesburg, but near 60 just
ahead of the front. As dew points ahead of the front are in the
mid 50s, the rapidly falling temperatures have resulted in some
dense fog formation, although visibilities have been coming up to
around a mile or two. The front should be crossing the I-55
corridor around midday and approach I-70 toward sunset, with
rapidly falling temperatures the main theme. The far southeast CWA
has reached into the 60s, and latest LAMP guidance suggesting
potentially as high as 68 around Lawrenceville early this
afternoon.
Zones/grids have been updated to refine the temperature trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
Strong cold/polar front was pushing SE into southeast parts of
WI/IA and nearing the Quad Cities early this morning. Areas of
dense fog over snow pack over northern IL from I-80 north but no
snow cover or fog over central and southeast IL so far. HRRR model
shows some of this fog moving SE across the IL river valley this
morning but coverage is limited and will leave out of forecast
today. Cold front to reach near Galesburg by 12Z/6 am, halfway
through CWA by 18Z/noon and approaching Lawrenceville around
00Z/6 pm today. Some patchy drizzle or very light rain showers to
occur this morning with frontal boundary, and light rain becomes
more likely in southeast IL later this afternoon and evening.
Highs today to be reached early this morning NW of the IL river in
the upper 30s and lower 40s, while southeast IL has temps climb
into the low to mid 60s by midday with breezy SW winds ahead of
front before temps fall behind the cold front during the afternoon.
Light rain chances linger SE of I-70 overnight and surface temps
to fall below freezing late tonight and give chance of light
freezing rain. QPF amounts are quite light by that time in
southeast IL and brunt of qpf shifts south of highway 50 Monday
morning where small chances of light freezing rain occurs. Lows
tonight range from the mid teens NW of the IL river, to around 30F
in far southeast IL near the Wabash river. Much colder Monday with
highs in the mid to upper 20s in central IL and 30-35F in
southeast IL along with blustery north winds. This due to arctic
high pressure over Alberta and MT that strengthens to 1045 mb over
the upper MS river valley Monday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
00Z extended models are mostly showing a nearly zonal upper level
flow over IL during mid and late week. Strong Canadian high
pressure shifts into southeast Canada Tue night while another high
pressure system settles north of the Great Lakes by Thu. Meanwhile
a frontal boundary stays south of IL over the TN valley into north
Texas and keeps more active wx pattern over southern half of IL
from Wed night through Fri. Models have trended further south with
qpf fields and have trended forecast with lower pops over northern
counties during this time frame. Continue to mention a mix of
precipitation including light freezing rain over parts of central
IL (850 mb temps generally stay at or above 0C while surface temps
near or below freezing), with better chance of rain and higher qpf
in southeast IL south of I-70. Weak surface low pressure ejects NE
from southern plains into KY Fri night and pulls light
precipitation SE of IL by overnight Fri night with central IL then
generally dry next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
Sharp cold front is now crossing the KBMI/KSPI terminals and
should be to KCMI by about 20Z. Immediately behind the front, LIFR
conditions are rapidly spreading in, with ceilings around 300 feet
or so. Dense fog had earlier also accompanied the front, but
visibilities are now more in the 1 to 3SM range for the first
couple hours post-front. Ceilings should slowly rise to above 1000
feet by mid afternoon and any substantial breaks into VFR range
will be more likely after 00Z, although probably not until around
06Z at KCMI. Winds will quickly shift northwest behind the front
and remain gusty, although not as gusty as ahead of it where they
have exceeded 25 knots at times.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1023 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...
302 AM CST
THROUGH TONIGHT...
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS DISSIPATION OF CURRENT DENSE
FOG...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS/CLOUD COVER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF STRONG
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE AREAS
WHERE SNOW PACK MELTED SATURDAY ADDING MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS A BIT COOLER MEANING SMALLER TD
DEPRESSIONS THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER UNTIL WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEGINS USHERING IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR THIS
MORNING.
RELATIVELY NARROW RIBBON OF STRATUS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT NOW BUT AM
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STRATUS WITH VERY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR STRATUS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY. WHILE MODELS
WERE FAR OVERDONE WITH STRATUS SATURDAY...AM CONCERNED THAT MAY BE
LESS THE CASE TODAY GIVEN DIFFERENT SET-UP IN COLD AIR ADVECTION.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW AND NO DOUBT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO TWEAK/ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ENSURE HIGH TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE
CWA WILL BE ACHIEVED THIS MORNING EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTHEAST WHERE
EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED. FRONT LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH
DRY OVER MOST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER BY MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON MODELS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
CIRCULATION COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONT REACHING HIGHER PWAT AIR MASS.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT HAVE NUDGED UP POPS. WITH LOW DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE AM
EXPECTING LOWER CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...THOUGH MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY STREAM INTO THE AREA.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
302 AM CST
MONDAY ONWARD...
WE SHOULD FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS 1045MB+ HIGH TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
ZONAL NATURE OF FLOW SHOULD PREVENT A FULL SCALE INVASION OF ARCTIC
AIR AND LACK OF SNOW COVER SHOULD KEEP THE RELATIVELY POTENT SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR FROM GETTING TOO COLD.
ARCTIC HIGH SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY SETTING UP RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ALTERNATING BOUTS OF
WEAK WARM AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS
WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW AMPLITUDE. LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIP AROUND
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD BE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN GIVEN THE MODERATE
TEMPS. OVERALL AFTER MONDAY`S COLD SNAP LOOK FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE PRECIP TUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* IFR CIGS SPREADING IN THROUGH LATE MORNING GRADUALLY IMPROVING
TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* VSBY EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AS IFR CIGS ARRIVE. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF 1-2SM VSBY AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES LAGGING THE IFR CIGS
BY 1-2 HRS. THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR VSBY JUST UNDER 1SM FOR A
SHORT TIME.
* WEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST GUSTING INTO THE TEENS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AND NEARING 20 KT MID AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY
CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING. IFR NOW JUST ARRIVING AT
ORD WITH SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS. THEREFORE HAVE FURTHER ADJUSTED
ARRIVAL TIME AT MDW/GYY. STRATOCU HAS FORMED IN THE 010-015 RANGE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM MDW-GYY BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS AT
TIMES UNTIL THE IFR ARRIVES. EXPECT THAT VSBY WILL LOWER TO AT
LEAST 3-5SM AS THE IFR CIGS ARRIVE BUT MAY FALL TO 1-2SM FOR A
TIME AS THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. HAVE SEEN THIS OCCUR TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS AT VYS/KC75 WHERE THE PUSH OF COLDER
AIR INTO THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR HAS BEEN STRONGER. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT 1SM VSBY COULD DEVELOP FURTHER NORTHEAST NEAR
DPA/PWK THEN WORK SOUTHEAST AS THIS WAS THE EDGE OF THE WARMEST
AIR THIS MORNING. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN 3-5SM VSBY SO WILL CARRY
THAT FOR NOW BUT 1SM VSBY IS POSSIBLE...LAGGING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
IFR CIGS BY AT LEAST AN HOUR. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST
INTO MIDDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEES AND LOOK TO PEAK AT 20 KT.
MDB
FROM 12Z...
PATCHY STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN...AND HAS SINCE PUSHED EAST. A NARROW CHANNEL OF
STRATUS WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
EASTERN IOWA STRETCHING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL WISC. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT VSBYS COULD BOUNCE BETWEEN 4-6SM BETWEEN 12-14Z
GIVEN THE PATCHY FOG THAT RESIDES WEST OF THE ORD/MDW CURRENTLY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRATUS WILL PUSH BACK OVER
AIRFIELDS AND REMAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. WINDS INTRODUCE YET ANOTHER
CHALLENGE AS OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 14KT EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
HELPED TO HOLD A FEW LOCATIONS UP WITH VSBYS. DENSE FOG CONTINUES
TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...BUT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS THIS AREA VSBY/CIGS WILL QUICKLY LIFT BACK
TO MVFR THEN VFR CONDS AROUND MIDDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY FLIP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST/NORTH...AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM 6-8KT
TO 12-14KT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING TO NEAR 20-24KT BY MIDDAY.
GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
THAT WILL HELP TO FURTHER LIFT CIGS TO VFR CONDS BY EARLY THIS
AFTN AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE A SCT DECK BY 22-23Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER WITH A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING OVERHEAD THIS WILL MAINTAIN
GUSTY WINDS THRU THE OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR AND EXITING OF CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH ARRIVAL OF
IFR CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR 1-2SM VSBY OR LOWER FOR
A TIME MIDDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS AND MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
GUSTS PEAKING AT 20 KT.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST BY LATE DAY.
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
229 AM CST
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT A VERY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THE COLD FRONT WAS
APPROACHING THE LAKE. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE THIS MORNING...THEN
STEADILY WORK SOUTH AND CLEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE MUCH COLDER
AIR...AND GUSTY WINDS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THAT GUSTS
WOULD STAY JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR
FAVORABLE GIVEN THE STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR THAT A FEW GALES MAY
OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AROUND 20Z...SO
HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WAVES SHUD EASILY BUILD GIVEN
THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR...AND WITH THE LONG DURATION OF
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS...WAVES SHUD EASILY BUILD ALONG THE INDIANA
SHORELINE.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE
RISES ARE SO LARGE THAT GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR A LONGER
DURATION OVER THE LAKE. AS A RESULT WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT. THEN
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE...AND IS POISED TO DEPART THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WED. A PERIOD
OF GALES MAY AGAIN DEVELOP FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE. THEN ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALES ONCE AGAIN.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...2 PM SUNDAY TO 2
PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...2 PM SUNDAY TO 9
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1006 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
Sharp cold front was located just east of the Illinois River at
10 am. Temperatures down to 33 at Galesburg, but near 60 just
ahead of the front. As dew points ahead of the front are in the
mid 50s, the rapidly falling temperatures have resulted in some
dense fog formation, although visibilities have been coming up to
around a mile or two. The front should be crossing the I-55
corridor around midday and approach I-70 toward sunset, with
rapidly falling temperatures the main theme. The far southeast CWA
has reached into the 60s, and latest LAMP guidance suggesting
potentially as high as 68 around Lawrenceville early this
afternoon.
Zones/grids have been updated to refine the temperature trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
Strong cold/polar front was pushing SE into southeast parts of
WI/IA and nearing the Quad Cities early this morning. Areas of
dense fog over snow pack over northern IL from I-80 north but no
snow cover or fog over central and southeast IL so far. HRRR model
shows some of this fog moving SE across the IL river valley this
morning but coverage is limited and will leave out of forecast
today. Cold front to reach near Galesburg by 12Z/6 am, halfway
through CWA by 18Z/noon and approaching Lawrenceville around
00Z/6 pm today. Some patchy drizzle or very light rain showers to
occur this morning with frontal boundary, and light rain becomes
more likely in southeast IL later this afternoon and evening.
Highs today to be reached early this morning NW of the IL river in
the upper 30s and lower 40s, while southeast IL has temps climb
into the low to mid 60s by midday with breezy SW winds ahead of
front before temps fall behind the cold front during the afternoon.
Light rain chances linger SE of I-70 overnight and surface temps
to fall below freezing late tonight and give chance of light
freezing rain. QPF amounts are quite light by that time in
southeast IL and brunt of qpf shifts south of highway 50 Monday
morning where small chances of light freezing rain occurs. Lows
tonight range from the mid teens NW of the IL river, to around 30F
in far southeast IL near the Wabash river. Much colder Monday with
highs in the mid to upper 20s in central IL and 30-35F in
southeast IL along with blustery north winds. This due to arctic
high pressure over Alberta and MT that strengthens to 1045 mb over
the upper MS river valley Monday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
00Z extended models are mostly showing a nearly zonal upper level
flow over IL during mid and late week. Strong Canadian high
pressure shifts into southeast Canada Tue night while another high
pressure system settles north of the Great Lakes by Thu. Meanwhile
a frontal boundary stays south of IL over the TN valley into north
Texas and keeps more active wx pattern over southern half of IL
from Wed night through Fri. Models have trended further south with
qpf fields and have trended forecast with lower pops over northern
counties during this time frame. Continue to mention a mix of
precipitation including light freezing rain over parts of central
IL (850 mb temps generally stay at or above 0C while surface temps
near or below freezing), with better chance of rain and higher qpf
in southeast IL south of I-70. Weak surface low pressure ejects NE
from southern plains into KY Fri night and pulls light
precipitation SE of IL by overnight Fri night with central IL then
generally dry next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
IFR clouds moving in from the northwest in connection with the
cold front moving into the area. Satellite trend shows IFR cigs
not very wide, but believe additional clouds will likely develop
in the CAA behind existing clouds, so will keep IFR cigs longer in
the TAFs today. As the front interacts with the surface moisture,
light rain or showers will be possible so have VCSH at all sites
except PIA. As the front pushes southeast during the day,
showers/light rain will end late afternoon/early evening. Cig
heights will also rise during the early evening at all sites, then
things will begin to clear late tonight. Winds will become
northwest and gusty when the front passes this morning. Believe
the gusts will continue into the night so will keep that going in
all TAFs. Low level wind shear occurring around 1.7kft based on
new UA sounding, but is gone in couple of hours, when the
inversion breaks.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1229 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
SURFACE FRONT GRADUALLY EDGING SOUTHEASTWARD...THOUGH FORWARD
SPEED HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY GIVEN SURFACE BOUNDARY ALIGNED WITH
UPPER FLOW PATTERN. FRONTAL POSITION AT 18Z JUST SOUTH OF A
PITTSBURG KS-COFFEYVILLE KS LINE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY GENERALLY HAVE BEEN REACHED. DIABATIC EFFECTS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE A FEW DEGREES...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE GIVEN STRONG
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING GIVEN PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX
TEMPS...HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS/ETC...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SF
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THE
COLD FRONT IS AHEAD OF GUIDANCE AND EVEN AHEAD OF PROJECTIONS JUST
A FEW HOURS AGO. THE FRONT IS REALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE. FEEL THE HRRR HAS ONE OF THE BEST GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS AND
HAVE USED THAT AS A FIRST GUESS...MODIFYING SLIGHTLY FOR HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE AND HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. MOST OF THE STATE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
30S. THE FRONT WILL SLOW SLIGHTLY AS THE WINDS COMPONENT BECOMES
LESS PERPENDICULAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS CAUSING THAT AREA TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR LONGER TODAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
MONDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE BUT STAY SLIGHTLY BREEZY DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING.
BY TUESDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
WITH 40S EXPECTED.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED IS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WHICH
WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST
AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL STAY IN THE
40S AND 50S WHILE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
OVERNIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED
SNOW AS A POTENTIAL WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND RAIN
DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY.
WHILE OUT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF KANSAS COULD BE NEXT SUNDAY. WILL WANT
TO WATCH LATER FORECASTS TO SEE HOW THIS DISTURBANCE EVOLVES WITH
LATER GUIDANCE.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
NARROW BAND OF LOW END MVFR/HIGH END IFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ALONG
AND ABOUT 100 MILES AREAR OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...THAT WAS LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF A KCOU...KFSK...KPPF...KSWO LINE AT 18 UTC. MVFR
CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED AT KRSL...KSLN...KHUT. INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2K AGL WILL LINGER AT KICT THROUGH 1930-20 UTC BASED ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS...NARRE AND SREF...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
EXPECT MARGINAL IFR/LOW END MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 9 AGL AND 12 AGL TO
LINGER AT KCNU UNTIL ABOUT 22-23 UTC...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. ONLY OTHER AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD IS
WITH RESPECT TO WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 28-32KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY 00 UTC.
SF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 16 31 16 44 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 12 30 15 44 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 14 29 15 42 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 18 32 17 44 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 18 32 17 45 / 10 0 0 0
RUSSELL 12 29 14 46 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 13 30 15 46 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 15 31 15 43 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 13 30 15 43 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 20 33 23 46 / 10 10 0 0
CHANUTE 18 32 19 44 / 10 0 0 0
IOLA 18 31 19 43 / 10 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 18 33 21 45 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1000 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
16Z VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/2
OF THE AREA WITH A THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
AREA. THE CIRRUS IS THINNER THEN EXPECTED THUS A SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY FOR THEM. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/4 OF THE AREA WITH CIRRUS OVERHEAD FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LESS CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA.
LATEST 15Z RUN OF THE RUC/HRRR STILL NOT CAPTURING THE COLDER
TEMPS ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST (FLAGLER) BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER
TIGHT WITH LIMON AT 50 DEGREES AND MESONET SITE TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THEM IN THE UPPER TEENS. OTHERWISE ITS PRETTY GOOD AND STUCK
CLOSE TO IT FOR THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
JUST GETTING A REPORT OF FLURRIES IN THE GOODLAND AREA AS WELL AS
WRAY AND SAINT FRANCIS. WILL NEED TO ADD A MENTION FOR AREAS UNDER
STRATUS.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT PRESENT TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
UPDATE SENT TO REFLECT FASTER FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN
THE RUC WHICH IS ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL TO ACCURATELY REFLECT
TEMPERATURES/WINDS/DEWPOINTS/STRATUS COVERAGE AND FOG IS TOO
SLOW...ESPECIALLY AROUND FLAGLER WHERE TEMPS MUCH COLDER COMPARED
TO MODEL FORECAST. OTHERWISE ITS PRETTY GOOD...HOPEFULLY THE 15Z
RUN WILL BE BETTER.
GENERAL IDEA IS FOR NARROW CORRIDOR OF FOG ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST/SOUTHWEST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING. REST OF THE AREA THAT ISNT UNDER A LOW
BLANKET OF STRATUS WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO CONTEND
WITH. TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
FUTURE UPDATES LIKELY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
UPDATE TO FORECAST SENT TO ADJUST TEMPS/WINDS FROM LATEST OBS DUE
TO FRONT PUSHING THRU THE AREA. TEMPS RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO
LOW 20S UNDER CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME BREAKS OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEBRASKA THAT SHOULD WORK INTO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATER TODAY. FOG IN OBS...SO HAVE KEPT IN MENTION OF FOR
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
A COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH THROUGH THE TRI STATE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT...A ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL LAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE DOES SET UP TO OUR EAST
BY TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WARMUP TO ENSUE...BUT NOT AS WARM
AS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...A LARGE AREA
OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS DOES FOLLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WITHIN THE
LAYER OF CLOUDS...OBS ACROSS NEBRASKA ARE SHOWING FOG AND EVEN SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES...SO WILL HAVE MENTION IN FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE
NW/SE ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY PUT FOCUS OF BULK
OF CLOUD SHIELD...OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN ZONES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AND WILL SETTLE TO OUR EAST GOING INTO MONDAY.
BY TONIGHT AS RIDGE FORCING SETS UP ESE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...FLOW
INTO EASTERN COLORADO/NW KANSAS/SW NEBRASKA DOES INTERACT WITH
REMAINING FRONTAL MOISTURE. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THESE AREAS WILL
PRODUCE A BIT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL GOING INTO THE FIRST FEW HRS MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ENDING. ANY SNOWFALL TOTALS RECEIVED WILL BE LIGHT ON
THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR LESS AND BULK WILL OCCUR OVER THE
COUNTIES OF YUMA CO...DUNDY NEBRASKA AND CHEYENNE KS. LINGERING
CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE RIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS AND WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER MAIN WEATHER FACTORS FROM TODAY ON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FROPA OCCURRING THIS MORNING...THE CWA
WILL SEE EARLY HIGHS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL BE
A CHANGE FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ON THE TUNE OF A 35 TO 40 DEGREE
DOWNWARD SHIFT FOR HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
GOING INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH RIDGE SETTING UP TO OUR
EAST...AREA WILL SEE A REBOUND IN TEMPS ONLY TO THE 30S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS MONDAY...BUT INCREASE GOING INTO TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AND MORE CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL HIGHS GOING INTO TUESDAY
WILL BOUNCE BACK SHARPLY IN THE 50-60 DEGREE RANGE WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S. BOTH OF THESE ARE ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED FOR
THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON MONDAY WITH SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED TODAY WITH 10 TO
15 MPH TONIGHT. THESE SPEEDS TONIGHT COMBINED WITH EXPECTED LOWS
WILL GIVE THE TRI STATE REGION WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
OVERALL...UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK. BY FRIDAY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST...DISCONTINUING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...SHIFTING IT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TRI STATE AREA DISRUPTING THE WARMING TREND. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA...BUT ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE
TYPE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WITH THE
EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SURFACE MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES...WILL BE ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN
PART. HOWEVER STILL NEED A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS TO BETTER
PINPOINT THE PRECIPITATION DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
KGLD...MVFR CIGS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH ROUGHLY 22Z WITH WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST GUSTING 25KTS. MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW FLURRIES.
AFTER 22Z EXPECTING NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS WITH A MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS. WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THEN
SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS. CIGS LOWER TO
AROUND 4K FT OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
REMAIN VFR.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING 25KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 22Z. AFTER 22Z
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS SLOWLY VEER TO THE EAST AROUND 13Z
AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...SPEEDS AROUND
06KTS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL BECOME BROKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CANT
RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE BUT RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
920 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
16Z VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/2
OF THE AREA WITH A THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
AREA. THE CIRRUS IS THINNER THEN EXPECTED THUS A SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY FOR THEM. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/4 OF THE AREA WITH CIRRUS OVERHEAD FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LESS CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA.
LATEST 15Z RUN OF THE RUC/HRRR STILL NOT CAPTURING THE COLDER
TEMPS ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST (FLAGLER) BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER
TIGHT WITH LIMON AT 50 DEGREES AND MESONET SITE TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THEM IN THE UPPER TEENS. OTHERWISE ITS PRETTY GOOD AND STUCK
CLOSE TO IT FOR THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
JUST GETTING A REPORT OF FLURRIES IN THE GOODLAND AREA AS WELL AS
WRAY AND SAINT FRANCIS. WILL NEED TO ADD A MENTION FOR AREAS UNDER
STRATUS.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT PRESENT TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
UPDATE SENT TO REFLECT FASTER FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN
THE RUC WHICH IS ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL TO ACCURATELY REFLECT
TEMPERATURES/WINDS/DEWPOINTS/STRATUS COVERAGE AND FOG IS TOO
SLOW...ESPECIALLY AROUND FLAGLER WHERE TEMPS MUCH COLDER COMPARED
TO MODEL FORECAST. OTHERWISE ITS PRETTY GOOD...HOPEFULLY THE 15Z
RUN WILL BE BETTER.
GENERAL IDEA IS FOR NARROW CORRIDOR OF FOG ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST/SOUTHWEST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING. REST OF THE AREA THAT ISNT UNDER A LOW
BLANKET OF STRATUS WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO CONTEND
WITH. TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
FUTURE UPDATES LIKELY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
UPDATE TO FORECAST SENT TO ADJUST TEMPS/WINDS FROM LATEST OBS DUE
TO FRONT PUSHING THRU THE AREA. TEMPS RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO
LOW 20S UNDER CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME BREAKS OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEBRASKA THAT SHOULD WORK INTO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATER TODAY. FOG IN OBS...SO HAVE KEPT IN MENTION OF FOR
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
A COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH THROUGH THE TRI STATE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT...A ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL LAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE DOES SET UP TO OUR EAST
BY TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WARMUP TO ENSUE...BUT NOT AS WARM
AS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...A LARGE AREA
OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS DOES FOLLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WITHIN THE
LAYER OF CLOUDS...OBS ACROSS NEBRASKA ARE SHOWING FOG AND EVEN SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES...SO WILL HAVE MENTION IN FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE
NW/SE ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY PUT FOCUS OF BULK
OF CLOUD SHIELD...OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN ZONES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AND WILL SETTLE TO OUR EAST GOING INTO MONDAY.
BY TONIGHT AS RIDGE FORCING SETS UP ESE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...FLOW
INTO EASTERN COLORADO/NW KANSAS/SW NEBRASKA DOES INTERACT WITH
REMAINING FRONTAL MOISTURE. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THESE AREAS WILL
PRODUCE A BIT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL GOING INTO THE FIRST FEW HRS MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ENDING. ANY SNOWFALL TOTALS RECEIVED WILL BE LIGHT ON
THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR LESS AND BULK WILL OCCUR OVER THE
COUNTIES OF YUMA CO...DUNDY NEBRASKA AND CHEYENNE KS. LINGERING
CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE RIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS AND WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER MAIN WEATHER FACTORS FROM TODAY ON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FROPA OCCURRING THIS MORNING...THE CWA
WILL SEE EARLY HIGHS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL BE
A CHANGE FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ON THE TUNE OF A 35 TO 40 DEGREE
DOWNWARD SHIFT FOR HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
GOING INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH RIDGE SETTING UP TO OUR
EAST...AREA WILL SEE A REBOUND IN TEMPS ONLY TO THE 30S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS MONDAY...BUT INCREASE GOING INTO TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AND MORE CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL HIGHS GOING INTO TUESDAY
WILL BOUNCE BACK SHARPLY IN THE 50-60 DEGREE RANGE WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S. BOTH OF THESE ARE ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED FOR
THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON MONDAY WITH SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED TODAY WITH 10 TO
15 MPH TONIGHT. THESE SPEEDS TONIGHT COMBINED WITH EXPECTED LOWS
WILL GIVE THE TRI STATE REGION WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
OVERALL...UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK. BY FRIDAY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST...DISCONTINUING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...SHIFTING IT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TRI STATE AREA DISRUPTING THE WARMING TREND. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA...BUT ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE
TYPE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WITH THE
EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SURFACE MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES...WILL BE ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN
PART. HOWEVER STILL NEED A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS TO BETTER
PINPOINT THE PRECIPITATION DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014
MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THRU 16Z-17Z FOR BOTH TAF SITES. 3-6SM
IN FOG WITH CEILINGS OVC006-015. AFT 17Z...VFR WITH SCT025-050
BKN150. WINDS NNE 15-25KTS DROPPING TO AROUND 10KTS BY 03Z MONDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
107 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH WEST MICHIGAN TODAY AND SEND
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
20S. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WILL WARM INTO THE 30S BY MID WEEK AND
REMAIN THERE FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS MAINLY DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS...THOUGH PCPN CHANCES
ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.
SFC OBS SHOW A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR MQT SWWD TO EASTERN
IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATER
THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW...LESS THAN 4K FT AND SO PCPN WILL
BE LIMITED TO A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...IF AT ALL.
ANY PCPN THAT DEVELOPS WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
IT/S WORTH NOTING THE LATEST HRRR DOESN/T SHOW ANY PCPN OVER THE CWA
TODAY.
COLD AIR POURS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
20S. ORDINARILY THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS
H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -13C. HOWEVER...WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS ONLY
REACHING 3K FT...THE DGZ...WHAT THERE IS OF IT...REMAINS IN THE TOP
OF THE CLOUD WITH NOT MUCH LIFT WITHIN IT. THUS WE DON/T EXPECT
ACCUMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SETTLES OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WX.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. OVERALL IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT.
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SMALL RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
RIDGING ARRIVES FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
AIDED...AIDED BY MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW...SUPPORTING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE ARRIVES THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAKENING. WHILE MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE DGZ...BUT
POTENTIALLY VERY DRY BELOW...IT APPEARS WE WILL SEE MAINLY VIRGA
FROM THIS WAVE. I ENDED UP HOLDING ONTO A VERY LOW POP FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FORE THIS EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE SFC COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY MBS TO GRR TO ORD AT
18Z HAS NUMEROUS IFR/LIFR CIGS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND/NORTH OF IT.
THESE LOWER CIGS WILL BE APPROACHING THE TERMINALS SOUTH AND EAST
OF GRR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES PRESSING
SOUTHEAST.
NO PRECIP HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE FRONT ALTHOUGH VSBYS MAY
OCCASIONALLY DIP TO AROUND ONE MILE IN MIST RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK INTO MVFR CATEGORY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY
CONDITIONS SHOULD TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY VFR TOWARD 06Z TONIGHT.
AFTER 12Z MONDAY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. ALSO SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WHICH COULD BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
MKG AND PERHAPS AZO AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. WAVES WILL REMAIN AOA
3 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
RIVER LEVELS WILL RECEDE DURING THE NEXT WEEK AS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF APPRECIABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1228 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
.UPDATE...IT HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE TO KEEP UP WITH RAPIDLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AS MAJOR BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING OWING TO MORE SUN THAN ANTICIPATED IS LEADING TO MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL WARMING. AFTERNOON HIGHS RAISED ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO IN
RESPONSE. THIS MIXING IS ALSO CAUSING WINDS TO GUST A LITTLE MORE
THAN EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA...WHERE GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL SATISFY LIMITED
THREATS FOR GRADIENT WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. UPDATES
TO THE PRODUCTS AND HWO COMPLETED. /BB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014/
UPDATE...MILD TEMPERATURES ARE THE STORY ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH
CLOUDS NOTICEABLY LESS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION THAN YESTERDAY. THE
LATTER FACT...IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ON THE 12Z JAN SOUNDING...SUGGESTS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR TONIGHT...THE MILD
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYERS WINDS SPREADING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT FOG FURTHER INLAND THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. WE WILL OF COURSE UPDATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG FOR SPECIFIC SPOTS IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE PACKAGE UPDATE
THIS AFTERNOON. /BB/
PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 342 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION...WHICH WILL BREAK UP ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AS
925 MB WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 30 TO 40 KNOTS...HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE TOO MUCH SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO UPPER LEVELS FOR ANY MIXING TO
REACH THE GROUND ACCORDING TO MODEL SOUNDINGS. LATEST MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS IN
THE NORTHWEST DELTA. HAVE SET THE GRIDS WITH GUST UP TO 30-35 MPH IN
THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION. SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF
WIND OUT OF THE HWO. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AS
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. FOR TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S. THIS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS AT BETTER FOG POTENTIAL AREAWIDE FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WILL PUT IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE GO INTO MONDAY THE CHANCES
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEAST. LOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO ALLBLEND FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS RAW BLEND GUIDANCE WITH THE SHALLOW AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS
POPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO ALLBLEND GUIDANCE./17/
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY. THE LIGHT POST
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE TUESDAY MORNING AND
DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL REMAIN QUITE A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS OUR DELTA REGION WHILE OUT SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 70S. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AREAWIDE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME NEAR ZONAL TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD NOSES BACK ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. THE RESULTING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
WORK TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND STRETCH BACK ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
WAA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA THURSDAY THE
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR CHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIMITED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA. OUR WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS INDUCED RIDGING ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW DROPPING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS...ENSEMBLES AND
ECMWF DIFFER ON THIS FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER OPEN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT THE SAME
TIME. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE LIMITED OVER OUR CWA DURING THE
WEEKEND THOUGH AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND
ALOFT DOMINATING OVER OUR AREA. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...STRATUS WAS STILL HANGING AROUND IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...BUT CEILINGS WERE RISING. MOST AREAS WERE ABOVE 3KFT.
EXPECTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS
SUGGEST FOG WILL RETURN TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
SUGGEST MORE LOW STRATUS. FOR HBG AND MAYBE MEI WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...WILL ADD SOME FOG. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO START FALLING
AROUND 9Z AND REMAIN GENERALLY OVERCAST FROM 500FT TO 1500FT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR AND OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /7/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 74 57 70 49 / 6 9 29 31
MERIDIAN 73 53 69 51 / 4 7 17 19
VICKSBURG 75 56 72 44 / 9 9 42 35
HATTIESBURG 75 56 73 53 / 4 7 11 14
NATCHEZ 75 58 75 48 / 8 8 33 37
GREENVILLE 75 57 64 39 / 10 17 61 40
GREENWOOD 73 57 67 43 / 10 15 50 40
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/7/17/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1014 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
.UPDATE...MILD TEMPERATURES ARE THE STORY ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH
CLOUDS NOTICEABLY LESS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION THAN YESTERDAY. THE
LATTER FACT...IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ON THE 12Z JAN SOUNDING...SUGGESTS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR TONIGHT...THE MILD
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYERS WINDS SPREADING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT FOG FURTHER INLAND THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. WE WILL OF COURSE UPDATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG FOR SPECIFIC SPOTS IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE PACKAGE UPDATE
THIS AFTERNOON. /BB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION...WHICH WILL BREAK UP ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AS
925 MB WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 30 TO 40 KNOTS...HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE TOO MUCH SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO UPPER LEVELS FOR ANY MIXING TO
REACH THE GROUND ACCORDING TO MODEL SOUNDINGS. LATEST MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS IN
THE NORTHWEST DELTA. HAVE SET THE GRIDS WITH GUST UP TO 30-35 MPH IN
THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION. SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF
WIND OUT OF THE HWO. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AS
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. FOR TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S. THIS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS AT BETTER FOG POTENTIAL AREAWIDE FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WILL PUT IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE GO INTO MONDAY THE CHANCES
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEAST. LOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO ALLBLEND FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS RAW BLEND GUIDANCE WITH THE SHALLOW AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS
POPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO ALLBLEND GUIDANCE./17/
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY. THE LIGHT POST
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE TUESDAY MORNING AND
DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL REMAIN QUITE A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS OUR DELTA REGION WHILE OUT SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 70S. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AREAWIDE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME NEAR ZONAL TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD NOSES BACK ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. THE RESULTING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
WORK TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND STRETCH BACK ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
WAA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA THURSDAY THE
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR CHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIMITED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA. OUR WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS INDUCED RIDGING ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW DROPPING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS...ENSEMBLES AND
ECMWF DIFFER ON THIS FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER OPEN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT THE SAME
TIME. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE LIMITED OVER OUR CWA DURING THE
WEEKEND THOUGH AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND
ALOFT DOMINATING OVER OUR AREA. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...STRATUS WAS STILL HANGING AROUND IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...BUT CEILINGS WERE RISING. MOST AREAS WERE ABOVE 3KFT.
EXPECTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS
SUGGEST FOG WILL RETURN TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
SUGGEST MORE LOW STRATUS. FOR HBG AND MAYBE MEI WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...WILL ADD SOME FOG. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO START FALLING
AROUND 9Z AND REMAIN GENERALLY OVERCAST FROM 500FT TO 1500FT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR AND OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /7/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 74 57 70 49 / 6 9 29 31
MERIDIAN 73 53 69 51 / 4 7 17 19
VICKSBURG 75 56 72 44 / 9 9 42 35
HATTIESBURG 75 56 73 53 / 4 7 11 14
NATCHEZ 75 58 75 48 / 8 8 33 37
GREENVILLE 75 57 64 39 / 10 17 61 40
GREENWOOD 73 57 67 43 / 10 15 50 40
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/7/17/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
900 AM PST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ALONG WITH MILD CONDITIONS. A STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND VERY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON AREA ROADWAYS. LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
THANKS TO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED OUT MUCH
WARMER THAN FORECAST. BROUGHT HOURLY FORECAST TEMPS BACK TO REALITY
FOR THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE ARE CURRENTLY SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER...EXPECT THIS TO FILL IN THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SO EVEN THOUGH THE AREA IS STARTING WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST STILL THINK CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS LOOK GOOD. NO
OTHER UPDATES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
220 AM PST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TODAY MARKS THE LAST DAY OF THE YEAR IN LAS VEGAS IN WHICH THE
NORMAL HIGH IS 60 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AS OF 2 AM WAS AT 62
DEGREES AT MCCARRAN AIRPORT AS ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES
TO STREAM INTO THE AREA COURTESY OF THE JET STREAM SITTING SMACK
OVERHEAD AND A SHORTWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED AT THE
PRESENT ABOUT 200 MILES OR SO OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THIS CREATES A
BIG CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AS MANY SITES ESPECIALLY ACROSS CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES HAD
FAILED TO REALLY DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND SOME WERE ALREADY EXCEEDING
FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH OUR CONTINUITY AS WELL AS WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE WRF AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE
INVERSION BREAKING BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAS VEGAS, WHICH HAPPENED
YESTERDAY AND RESULTED IN TEMPS GETTING MUCH WARMER THAN EXPECTED.
THE ONLY DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THAT FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS AND WATER
VAPOR TRENDS SHOW GLOBS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY PERSISTING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HEATING AND YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPS DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY ONCE
THE CIRRUS THICKENED UP ENOUGH. OVERALL, THE BEST THOUGHT WAS TO
NUDGE UP TEMPS TODAY AND GO WITH VALUES CLOSER TO THE ECMWF BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND WARMER WRF SOUNDING. WITH THE INVERSION
BREAKING AND WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOWN IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS A 70 KT JET AT 250 MB STILL OVERHEAD, GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME HIGHER RIDGETOPS AND FAVORED SPOTS DOWNWIND OF
CANYONS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH.
THE DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE CREST OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA. THE WRF AND HRRR MODELS STILL SUPPORT THIS. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 7000 FEET, HOWEVER, ANY ATTEMPT AT
ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE 10000 FEET GIVEN THE WARM GROUND
TEMPS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HIGH CLOUDS MAY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
FOR TONIGHT, SO READINGS SHOULD BE COOLER.
RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE DAY SHOULD START OFF SUNNIER, THE NEXT JET STREAK IS
SHOWN TO HEAD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER
BATCH OF THICK CIRRUS IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD BASES
LOWERING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
CALIFORNIA. HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE LOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY
AS THE INVERSION LOOKS TO HOLD AND MIXING IS WEAK IN THE VALLEYS.
HOWEVER, SEEING HOW THINGS HAVE GONE SATURDAY AND LIKELY WILL TODAY,
I DID BUMP THEM UP A HAIR.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN SOLID AGREEMENT WITH STORM SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RAISED PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA AND ALSO TWEAKED WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT STRATIFORM PRECIP
IN THE MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE LOW DURING THE DAY AND
EVENING...CHANGING TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN PLUME BREAKS UP
AND HEIGHT FALLS MOVE IN. STILL EXPECTING UNSEASONABLY HIGH SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS STORM SO ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD
SEE THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA DRYING OUT WITH SMALL POPS
LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN CWA NEARER THE JET IN DIRTY ZONAL FLOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS PACIFIC AIR STREAMS OVER
THE CWA. THE NEXT STORM LOOKS POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN THAT TIME
FRAME SO WILL HOLD OFF TRYING TO PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD TREND TOWARD 5-8 KTS BY 16Z
TODAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KTS AROUND 20Z TODAY
WHERE THEY SHOULD HOLD AT THROUGH TONIGHT. GENERALLY BKN CLOUDS AOA
20K FEET ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS
AT 6-12 KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER HIGHER
RIDGETOPS AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FAVORED CANYONS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
MAINLY AOA 20K FEET THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW BASES AS LOW AS 15K
FEET IN AND AROUND KBIH.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...MORGAN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
606 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE AS OF 600 PM SUNDAY...EASTERN NC WILL REMAIN IN A DEEP SW
FLOW OF MILD AIR IN THE CIRCULATION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT THUS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DEPENDENT ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL BE LIMITED BY LOW
LEVEL MIXING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DECOUPLING IN
SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS WHICH COULD LEAD TO WIDE RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES ACROSS A SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION AS MIXING KEEPS
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE SHELTERED LOCATIONS THAT
DECOUPLE COULD DROP BRIEFLY INTO THE UPPER 30S. WILL MAINTAIN
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S COAST WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT TEMPERATURES
COULD BOUNCE UP AND DOWN AS WINDS BECOME CALM THEN PICK UP AGAIN.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND NARRE ARE
INDICATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS COULD SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES SO WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY SUPPRESS AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
YIELD SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO THE UPPER LEVELS. AMPLE
DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND THE ONLY SATURATION NOTED IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SO EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH FILTERED
CIRRUS. AS A RESULT OF BOTH CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW...THICKNESS VALUES WILL REFLECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT AOA 70 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME TIMING DISAGREEMENT
STILL EXISTS AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH GFS ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER THAN THE ECM/NAM SO CONTINUED FOLLOWING SUITE WITH PREVIOUS
FCST. WHILE MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND VORTICITY REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY
ENDING TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN ZONES. TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN MONDAY AS IN- SITU CAD EVENT DEVELOPS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AREA- WIDE...STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGEST STRONG
FRONTAL INVERSION IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH MAINLY CLOUDY 1-1.5 K FT STRATUS
LAYER. HAVE ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE TO GRIDS...ESP NORTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP PER DISCUSSION ABOVE.
FROM MID THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...WE REMAIN IN A GENERALLY W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY SHIFTING WINDS NE THEN THE
COLD FRONT WASHES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LATEST 30/12Z ECMWF
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NC
COAST THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH VA/NC. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER FRI
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A MOSTLY VFR FORECAST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NC.
EXCEPTION IS LATE TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
THAT FOG WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
INTO NORTH CAROLINA POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS KOAJ AND KEWN LATE
TONIGHT AS SOME DECOUPLING OF THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THERE. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL QUICK TO DISSIPATE MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY...THOUGH EXPECT BIGGEST
IMPACT TO AVIATION LOW STRATUS IN MVFR TO POSSIBLE ISOLATED IFR
CIGS AT TIMES. VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN WED THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM SUNDAY...SWLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL PEAK TONIGHT AND RELAX A BIT ON MONDAY. EXPECTED WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE 15-20 KTS DIMINISHING TO TO 10-15 KTS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FOOT SETS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 2 TO 3 BY MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT A DRAMATIC INC IN WINDS TO NE AT
15-25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING 6-7 FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN AND
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z WAVEWATCH. GREATEST THREAT FOR SCA WILL BE
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...JME/LEP
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL/LEP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
302 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WITH A MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
IN ITS WAKE WILL SAG THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL
RESIDE FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TO FAR SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY ON MONDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AS WELL AS A TWENTY DEGREE TEMPERATURE
DROP IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER IT PASSES. THE FRONT WILL SLOW A
LITTLE ON ITS SOUTHWARD TREK ON MONDAY AS IT SAGS INTO VIRGINIA
AND TENNESSEE...AND WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LINGER RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THIS AREA BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COLDER ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT
RETURNS NORTHWARD BY MIDWEEK WITH MILD AIR AND A RETURNING THREAT
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERLAYING YESTERDAY/S FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID 30.12Z AT ILN
WITH ILN RAOB AS VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN THAT NWP GUIDANCE HAS
VASTLY OVERESTIMATED MIXING RATIOS/SATURATION BELOW 900MB LAST NIGHT
THROUGH TODAY. THUS...DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER HAS
REMAINED ABOUT 1KM TO 1.2KM DEEP FROM LATE LAST NIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY AND HAS KEPT DZ/RA-- PRODUCTION AT BAY THUS FAR. WOULD
MUCH PREFER TO SEE THE SATURATED LAYER EXCEED 1.5KM AND CLOSER TO
2.0KM FOR A LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER TO PRODUCE -DZ/RA-- IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR LOWER 100MB
BOUNDARY LIKE WHAT WE HAVE IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR TODAY. CLOUD
CIGS REMAIN STUBBORNLY IN THE 2-3KFT LAYER AGL SO WE/VE BEEN
PROGRESSIVELY DELAYING MEASURABLE RAIN THREATS. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR EVEN WARMER READINGS /MANY LOCATIONS IN MID 60S/ AND DWPTS
HAVE CHECKED IN ABOUT 5F-7F LOWER...STRUGGLING TO BREACH
50F...THUS T/TD SPREADS ARE > 10F MOST LOCATIONS.
ALL THAT STARTING TO CHANGE HOWEVER AS SHARP/ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND GLANCING BLOW FROM PARENT HEIGHT FALLS SWEEPING
ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER IS FORCING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SYNOPTIC ASCENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. KIWX WSR-88D HAS RECENTLY
DEPICTED BLOSSOMING ECHOES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS
DEPICTED AT 30.18Z TO RUN FROM GRAND RAPIDS /MI/ TO CHICAGO TO SPRINGFIELD
/IL/. THE FURTHER SOUTH/WEST YOU TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT IN
IL/MO/OK...THE SHARPER THE TEMP GRADIENT /30F ACROSS ONE OR TWO
COUNTIES IN SOME CASES/. HOWEVER...LACK OF BLOCKING IN THE FAST
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP THE ARCTIC POOL OF BITTERLY COLD AIR
TRUCKING ON EAST /AND MODIFYING/ VS. SOUTHEAST AND THUS OUR LOCAL
AREA BECOMES MORE AND MORE REMOVED FROM THE COLDEST AIR W/TIME.
THUS...TEMP GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. WILL STILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH UP TO A 20 DEGREE TEMP DROP OVER 3-4 HOURS AND A
RATHER ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST /WITH GUSTS/. HAVE
FOLLOWED RAW 2M MODEL TEMP BLEND CLOSELY TO MITIGATE MINOR SPEED
DIFFERENCES OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS PUTS FRONT TO SCIOTO COUNTY
/OH/ BY 12Z MONDAY..WITH TEMPS AT SUNRISE ON MONDAY LIKELY RANGING
FROM NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING /CELINA OH/ TO THE LOW TO MID 50S
/PORTSMOUTH/.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF NCEP HI-RES WINDOW GUIDANCE /ARW AND NMM
CORES/ WITH SUBJECTIVE INTERPOLATION OF 30.17Z ESRL HRRR FOR
TIMING OF RAIN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THESE DATA SUGGEST WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AND A FINE LINE OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP
ALONG/IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
PARTICULARLY AFTER 00Z. RECENT RADAR TRENDS TO OUR NW SUPPORT THIS
REASONING. ALREADY SEEING SW-NE ORIENTED BANDS OF -DZ
ACRS WCNTL OH NOW IN FRONT OF PRIMARY FINE LINE ALONG FRONT.
KEEPING A 60-75% OF MEASURABLE RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. AM PROBABLY TO LONG /DURATION/ WITH
THREAT OF RAIN GIVEN DEPICTIONS IN SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY BUT
TRIED TO KEEP RAIN TO NO MORE THAN 2-3 HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW OVER KY TOMORROW AS IT SAGS SOUTH OF
STRONGER/FASTER WESTERLY FLOW...BECOMING MORE PARALLEL THE DEEP
LAYER FLOW. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO LINGER RAIN IN NORTHERN KY/FAR
SOUTHERN OHIO /APPROX SOUTH OF CINCINNATI TO CHILLICOTHE LINE/
INTO THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE 30.12Z RUNS OF
GFS/ECMWF WHICH ENHANCE POST FRONTAL PCPN BANDS LATE MORNING/AFTN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF AFOREMENTIONED LINE. QPF SEEMS LIGHT...BUT BOTH
MODELS SUGGESTING 0.10 TO 0.20" QPF DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /FGEN/ SIGNAL THAT ACCOMPANIES BRIEF WINDOW OF
RIGHT ENTRANCE ULJ FORCING THAT HAS WEAK SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY
EMBEDDED IN THIS ANTICYCLONIC PORTION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS CAUSES
CONCERN BECAUSE OF MARGINAL/CRITICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BY THE TIME...AS CAA WILL BE STRONG AND TEMPS/DWPTS
WILL HAVE FALLEN/OR BE FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING...ESP ALONG OHIO
RIVER. CLOSER INSPECTION OF 30.12Z LAYER MAX WET BULB TEMPS
SUGGESTS 30.12Z ECMWF IS VERY BULLISH/FAST WITH THE CAA WHILE
30.12Z NAM/SREF MEAN THE SLOWEST...WITH 30.12Z GFS A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION. UNFORTUNATELY 30.12Z ECMWF IS ALSO MOST ROBUST WITH
ITS LIGHT QPF DISTRIBUTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE
STRONGEST CONTRIBUTION FROM THE UPPER JET - SO THIS PRESENTS A
LOWER-END THREAT OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /VIA WET BULB PROCESSES AND
CAA/ FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KY AND/OR SRN OHIO MONDAY BEFORE
PRECIPITATION WANES. HAVE NOT REALLY SEEN THIS THREAT ON PRIOR
PARALLEL GFS...OPNL NAM...OR HIGHER RES GEM/HIRES-WINDOW
RUNS...THESE PUSH FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND THUS POST FRONTAL PCPN
BANDS DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND IN WARMER AIR /RAIN/. ALSO...COARSE
30.12Z ECMWF FORECAST SOUNDINGS /NOT NATIVE MODEL RES/ SUGGESTS MID
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY INHIBIT MUCH PRECIP PRODUCTION AND PERHAPS HIGHER
QPF DEPICTION FURTHER NORTH INTO COLD AIR A FUNCTION OF COARSE GRID
RESOLUTION. SO MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO 1) LINGER HIGHER END
RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTH ON MONDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND
2) ALLOW FOR THIS TO MIX WITH SNOW AS A START WITHOUT ANY
ACCUMULATION. UPCOMING SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A LOWER END/OUTLIER THREAT FOR A STRIPE OF LIGHT/WET
ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY AFTN SHOULD A MORE ROBUST
COLDER/WETTER ECMWF SCENARIO GARNER MORE NWP SUPPORT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BATCH OF MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING/WEAK VORT MAX AND RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND THUS EXPECT
A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS
1045MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SERN CANADA AND OUR
SOURCE REGION AIRMASS EMANATES FROM THIS FEATURE ON NELY FLOW. A
CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BEFORE BACKING
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW ALREADY STARTS TO ALLOW MIXING/EROSION OF
THE VERY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS BY TUESDAY. AM ALLOWING MAX TEMPS
ON TUESDAY BACK NEAR 40F BUT WAA WILL BE ONGOING ESPECIALLY JUST
OFF THE SURFACE SO THESE READINGS COULD BE A LITTLE COOL GIVEN
925MB TEMPS BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BE 0C TO +5C ALREADY IN THE
STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME. RATHER DECENT S/W TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
MN/WI TUESDAY NIGHT /INDUCING THE BACKING FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/ WILL ALLOW REMNANT MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
SHALLOW COLD DOME TO PERHAPS PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS EAST OF I-71 TUESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT ANY POTENTIAL
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALLOWING
FOR MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. AS IS
TYPICAL IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THEIR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES. AS A RESULT...IT IS TOUGH TO RULE OUT A CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD
THE BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING AFFECTING MORE OF OUR SOUTHERN FA
THOUGH...SO WILL TREND POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH THE LOWEST POPS
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES
THOUGH...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY OR LOWER. THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY RAIN...BUT DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT...SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN ACROSS
THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA IS IN A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
POSITIONED OVER ILLINOIS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
HAS PRODUCED MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT LUK.
HOWEVER...LIGHT RAIN THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO HAVE DEVELOPED HAS NOT.
THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF THE ONSET OF RAIN. STILL
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS WITH RAIN TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. LOOK FOR SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST...THOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP WILL PROBABLY LINGER AT
LEAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A POLAR
FRONT MOVING ACROSS MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF THE FOX VALLEY. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PASS OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPS HAVE
HOVERED ALL DAY IN THE TEENS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS RESIDE UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THANKS TO A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY.
A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKE
WINNIPEG REGION...AND IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS ARCTIC FRONT...WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO AND WILL DRIVE
AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODELS PROJECT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXITING WITH THE POLAR FRONT. LAKE
CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE RETREATING TO THE UPPER PENINSULA AS WINDS
BACK MORE WESTERLY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT STRATO-CU COULD MOVE INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THIS
LOOKS OVERDONE BASED ON CLOUDS UPSTREAM. 925MB TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE -20S BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT BY 12Z MONDAY AND UPSTREAM OBS OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH. THIS MATCHES FAIRLY WELL
WITH THE AVERAGE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE...AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. COMBINED WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND...WIND CHILLS WILL
FALL BETWEEN 20 AND 25 BELOW OVER N-C WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...WILL
HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING...AND COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH
MID-MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD SEE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUBSIDE.
THOUGH TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MODIFYING...HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS UNDER PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
UNLIKE NOVEMBER...DECEMBER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
RATHER MILD AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST WEEK OR SO. THE UPPER FLOW IS
MOSTLY ZONAL WITH SURFACE HIGHS COMING FROM THE ROCKIES INSTEAD OF
THE ARCTIC. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOWS
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES OVER DOOR COUNTY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY WAS SOUTHERLY FLOW MIGHT BE
JUST COLD ENOUGH TO GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING MIGHT PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS BUT
IT DOESN/T LOOK TO BE VERY MUCH.
IT WILL START OUT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AFTER THAT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
AS A POLAR FRONT EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST...EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN BY MID-AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE
SLOWER OVER N-C WISCONSIN DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THINK MVFR CIGS AND LOWER VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN WIND DIRECTIONS BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION. THEREAFTER...THINK MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TOMORROW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ005-
010>012-018-019-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1130 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ATMOSPHERE IN GENERAL ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA IS QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS
THAN 1/2 INCH. IN FACT...UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH THEY ARE LESS THAN
1/10 OF AN INCH. ACCOMPANYING THE DRIER AIR HAS BEEN A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN MN HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH TEENS TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN MONTANA WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED. THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND NOW SITUATED FROM GRB TO DVN AND KANSAS CITY. A
BAND OF LOW STRATUS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT. THAT STRATUS HAS BEEN A FUNCTION OF TRAPPED
MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL INVERSION...REPRESENTED VERY WELL
ON THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING WHERE THE 850MB TEMP WAS 13C AND 925MB
TEMP WAS -2C. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MORESO OVER MONTANA AND NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE THE INVERSION GOES AWAY...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS -20C
AND BELOW.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PROGGED
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY SITTING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY...EXPECTING TO SEE THE ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
MEANS A CONTINUOUS FALL OF TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
THE FALL SLOWED JUST SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FROM THE AID
OF THE SUN. REGARDING SUNSHINE...CLOUD EVOLUTION TODAY IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. THERES A FIGHT GOING ON BETWEEN THE SATURATION ALONG THE
COLD FRONTAL INVERSION AND SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. THIS IS EVIDENT
NICELY ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 IN MN WHERE THERE ARE BANDS OF
CLEARING AND STRATUS. TRIED THE BEST TO PLAY THIS IN THE FORECAST
BUT MORE UPDATES OF SKY COVER IS LIKELY NEEDED. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES COME OUT OF THE CLOUDS SINCE THE
CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE CONTAINED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE OMEGA PROGGED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO MENTION THE FLURRIES. CLEARING OF THE
SKIES LOOKS MORE LIKELY TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS OF THE MID/HIGH LEVEL VARIETY MAY GET STUCK ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE FALL...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR
READINGS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BY SUNSET...COLDEST IN
SOUTHEAST MN AND WARMEST IN FAR SOUTHWEST WI. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS HERE TOO...DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN RIVER VALLEY AREAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE. THESE LOWS SEEM REASONABLE BASED
ON WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE DAKOTAS NOW.
WIND CHILLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A HEADLINE ISSUE TODAY...THOUGH
10 TO 20 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD DROP THE WIND
CHILL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY SUNSET.
FOR TONIGHT...HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT 5 TO 15 MPH BREEZE COMBINED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS DO DROP WIND CHILLS TO THE ADVISORY
THRESHOLD OF -20F IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND CENTRAL WI. GIVEN
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BOTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...HAVE ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST TAYLOR COUNTY. ALSO CONSIDERED
DODGE...OLMSTED AND MOWER...BUT TO MAINTAIN A CLEANER HAZARD MAP
WITH MPXS COLDER CRITERIA OF -25 AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
MPX...HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING FOR THESE COUNTIES. IF IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK JUST AS COLD OR COLDER...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY FOR DODGE...OLMSTED AND MOWER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST...MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING IS BY FAR THE
COLDEST PART. DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...FAVORED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH...925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED AT A CHILLY -16C SOUTH TO -20C NORTH
AT 18Z MONDAY. THESE READINGS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO. THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
AREA CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA THEN SLIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT
00Z TUESDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER SUNSET. A DROP
OF 10 DEGREES BETWEEN 21Z MON AND 00Z TUE SUGGESTED BY THE 30.00Z
REGIONAL CANADIAN IS EASILY PLAUSIBLE. THE AMOUNT OF DROP IS
IMPORTANT AS THE LOW TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BY 12Z TUESDAY. THAT
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE A RETURN FLOW BREEZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB. ITS POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN RUN
INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY ISSUES AGAIN AS THE BREEZE COMBINES WITH
THE INITIALLY COLD READINGS.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS IS ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DRIVING
THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...CONTINUED
RETURN FLOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT WILL HELP PUSH 925MB TEMPS BACK UP TO
AS MUCH AS -4 TO -6C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP BRING
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS. A FEW SPOTS SUCH AS RIVER
VALLEYS MAY EVEN APPROACH FREEZING. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. MAYBE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FALLS NORTH OF I-94 WITH ITS
PASSAGE OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. SOME COLDER AIR
FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR STAYS
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO -5 TO -9C SO
READINGS ON WEDNESDAY MAY ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TUESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE QUASI-
ZONAL...FAVORING A FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR ACROSS THE U.S. AND THUS
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN FACT...BY THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD BE BACK UP
ABOVE NORMAL AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO OR ABOVE 0C. THERE IS ONE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODELS HAVE OSCILLATED BACK AND FORTH ON WHETHER THIS SHORTWAVE CAN
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. 30.00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DRIER
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN STILL DRIVES SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH. TEND TO
BELIEVE A DRIER SOLUTION WILL PAN OUT GIVEN A SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE...YIELDING
DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2014
STREAK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. MOSTLY IN THE 10-15 KFT
RANGE. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP NORTHWEST WINDS
BLUSTERY/GUSTY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...MOSTLY 14-20 KTS
SUSTAINED. THEY/LL STAY UP AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH SAGGY
GRADIENT RESULTING IN THE DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK